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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-Evening Report: Vibes are something we feel but can’t quite explain. Now researchers want to study them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ash Watson, Scientia Fellow and Senior Lecturer, UNSW Sydney

    Shutterstock

    When we’re uncomfortable we say the “vibe is off”. When we’re having a good time we’re “vibing”. To assess the mood we do a “vibe check”. And when the atmosphere in the room changes we call it a “vibe shift”.

    In a broad sense, a “vibe” is something akin to a mood, atmosphere or energy.

    But this is an imperfect definition. Often, we’ll use this term to describe something we feel powerfully, but find hard to articulate.

    As journalist and cultural critic Kyle Chayka described in 2021, a vibe is “a placeholder for an unplaceable feeling or impression, an atmosphere that you couldn’t or didn’t want to put into words”.

    Being able to understand the subtleties of social interactions – that is, to “feel the vibes” – is extremely valuable, not just for our social interactions, but also for researchers who study people.

    What’s behind the rise of vibes? And how can sociologists like myself unpack “vibe culture” to make sense of the world?

    A history of vibes

    The nuance and complexity of vibes makes them an interesting cultural trend. Vibes can be very specific, but can also totally resist specificity.

    Australians (and fans of Australiana) will remember the iconic line from the beloved 1997 film The Castle: “It’s just the vibe of the thing… I rest my case.”

    While it may seem like a recent cultural development, vibe isn’t the first example of cryptic language being used to express an ambiguous thing or situation. There are similar concepts with long histories, such as “quintessence” in Ancient Greek philosophy and “auras” in mysticism.

    More recently, vibes rose in popularity through music including 1960s rock, epitomised by the Beach Boys (“pickin’ up good vibrations”) and Black American rap vernacular from the 1990s, such as in the song Vibes and Stuff by A Tribe Called Quest (“we got, we got, we got the vibes”).

    ‘Vibes’ rose in popularity through music including 1960s rock and 1990s Black American rap.
    Shutterstock

    While we don’t know when the term was first used as it is today, it seems to have taken hold in the 1970s.

    I trawled the online archive of The New Yorker and found an early mention of vibes in a 1971 report about communes in New York City.

    One interviewee spoke about the “vibration of togetherness” that drew them to the commune. Ending the day on the subway, the author Hendrik Hertzberg (now a senior editor at the magazine) “just sat there and soaked up the good vibes”.

    New uses and meanings have emerged in the years since.

    Vibes today

    As vibe is used in more ways, its meaning becomes expanded and diffused. A person or situation can have good vibes, bad vibes, weird vibes, laid-back vibes, or any other adjective you can imagine.

    Language is a central part of qualitative research. While new phrases and slang can be casual and superficial, they can also represent broader, more complex concepts. Vibe is a great example of this: a simple term that refers to something potent yet ephemeral, affecting yet ambiguous.

    By paying attention to the words people use to describe their experiences, sociologists can identify patterns of social interactions and shifts in social attitudes.

    Perhaps vibes work like a heuristic – a mental shortcut – but for feeling rather than thinking.

    People use heuristics to make everyday decisions or draw conclusions based on their experiences. Heuristics are, in essence, our common sense. And “vibes” might be best described as our common feeling, as they speak to a subtle aspect of how we collectively relate and interact.

    Sociologists have long studied complex common feelings. Ambivalence, for instance, has been a focus in research on digital privacy. Studying when and why people feel ambivalent about digital technology can help us understand their seemingly contradictory behaviour, such as when they say they are concerned about privacy, but do very little to protect their information.

    Ambivalence reveals how people make decisions via small, everyday compromises – moments and feelings that may be overlooked in quantitative research. A qualitative approach can help us to align policies with people’s real-world behaviours.

    Researchers react

    Then again, it’s difficult to study something people find hard to articulate in the first place. Asking participants to rank the “vibes” of something in a survey doesn’t quite work.

    So researchers are finding new ways to feel the vibe: to see what participants see, to feel what they feel and get a deeper understanding of their lived experiences.

    For instance, such study could provide insight into how senior clinicians make important decisions amid uncertainty. We already know making decisions in complex situations involves more than logic and rationality.

    In one Australian study published last year, researchers assessed how vibes have become part of online advertising algorithms. The researchers analysed the social media feeds of more than 200 young people, using the concept of vibes to show how advertising models attune to individuals and social groups.

    Such approaches can complement, or even update, tried-and-tested research methods, expanding on what we know about human relationships and experiences.

    Ash Watson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Vibes are something we feel but can’t quite explain. Now researchers want to study them – https://theconversation.com/vibes-are-something-we-feel-but-cant-quite-explain-now-researchers-want-to-study-them-247907

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Yes, Australia needs new homes – but they must be built to withstand disasters in a warmer world

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Francesca Perugia, Senior Lecturer, School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University

    Australia’s housing crisis has created a push for fast-tracked construction. Federal, state and territory governments have set a target of 1.2 million new homes over five years.

    Increasing housing supply is essential. However, the homes must be thoughtfully located and designed, to avoid or withstand natural disasters such as bushfires, floods and cyclones.

    Recent severe weather, including floods in Queensland and severe storms in north-east Victoria, underscore the growing vulnerability of Australian homes. As climate change worsens, the risk becomes ever-greater.

    Our new research examined how disaster risk informs housing location and design in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. We spoke to planners, developers, insurers and housing providers, and found crucial problems that leave communities exposed.

    Getting to grips with disaster data

    Australia’s towns and cities are increasingly affected by natural disasters. The consequences extend beyond physical destruction to social, psychological and health effects. Disasters also harm the economy.

    Despite this, government housing policies and strategies often fail to adequately focus on natural disasters.

    Accurate, up-to-date information is crucial when seeking to protect new homes from natural disasters. Informed decisions typically require three types of data:

    • foundational: relating to vegetation, landscape features, weather, climate change and building characteristics such as height and materials

    • hazards: the risks of different disaster types such as historical flood data, maps of bushfire-prone areas and the recurrence of cyclones

    • vulnerability: the potential and actual impacts of natural disasters such as building damage, fatalities and injuries, displacement, psychological and health impacts and insurance losses.

    Our research, for the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, examined how data could be better used and shared to plan and deliver new housing and protect Australians from disasters.

    What we did

    We started by identifying what data was available in Australia for bushfire, flood and cyclone risk.
    Then we examined who owned and managed the data and how it was, or wasn’t, shared.

    The next step was to explore how decision-makers use the data to assess disaster risks for new housing. This involves interviews, workshops and questionnaires with:

    • government planning agencies (both state and local government)

    • housing providers (public and not-for-profit/community housing)

    • housing and land developers (private and public)

    • banks and insurers.

    What we found

    Overall, we found data on disaster risk was fragmented and inconsistent across multiple agencies, and not regularly updated.

    Decision-makers in state and local planning agencies often cannot access accurate information about disaster risk. This means they lack the power to restrict housing in areas prone to bushfires, floods or other extreme events.

    Flood hazard data is particularly problematic. One planner from Queensland described it as “patchy, of variable quality and currency and not always open source” – the latter meaning it was hard to access.

    Many households only learn about their disaster risk when discovering their homes are uninsurable or premiums are prohibitively high. Others become aware of the problem when premiums rise with an existing insurer.

    A community housing provider told us:

    I think the way people are finding out about risk now is by their insurance policies going up. That’s the market reality. When they get an increase in their insurance policy next year, that will wake them up that they are actually in a high-risk area.

    Data held by emergency service agencies and insurers is mostly inaccessible to planners, developers and households due to privacy and commercial sensitivities.

    However, this information is crucial. Government agencies should establish protocols to enable data-sharing while protecting privacy and commercial interests.

    Lack of transparency for homebuyers

    A recent report suggested only 29% of Australian home buyers know the disaster risks associated with the homes they live in.

    Disclosure statements are required by the vendor (seller) when marketing their house or land for sale. These vary between states and territories and, in most cases, do not compel the owner to reveal all known risks.

    For example, in Victoria, a vendor is required to disclose whether the land is in a designated bushfire-prone area, but not whether it is exposed to flooding.

    What’s more, a vendor motivated to sell a house is probably not the best source to provide accurate, impartial information about its exposure to disaster. This is better left to an independent entity such as a local council.

    Thorough investigations into a home’s disaster risk is usually at the discretion of the buyer.

    Making this information readily available to prospective homebuyers prior to purchase would allow more informed consumer decisions. It would also pressure governments and housing suppliers to address disaster risks.

    Where to next?

    Australia urgently needs a national framework to ensure data on housing and disaster risk is comprehensive, current and embedded in housing development decisions.

    The federal government’s Digital Transformation Agency could establish and implement this system, with input from state and local governments.

    Technology known as “spatial digital twins” could also vastly improve how disaster risk is assessed and communicated. These tools enable users to pull together and arrange large amounts of data, to visualise it in the form of models.

    For example, a spatial digital twin could combine real time flood sensor data with historical flooding patterns to predict and visualise flood risks before they occur. Federal and state governments are already investing in such technology.

    Australia’s push to increase housing supply must be matched with a commitment from governments to ensure the homes are safe, resilient and sustainable in the face of our changing climate.

    Addressing the housing crisis isn’t just about numbers – it’s about making sure homes are built in the right places, with the right protections, for the long-term safety of communities.

    Francesca Perugia
    receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI)

    Courtney Babb receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) and is a member of the Greens (WA).

    Steven Rowley receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and the Australian Research Council. He is a member of the Housing Industry Forecasting Group in Western Australia

    – ref. Yes, Australia needs new homes – but they must be built to withstand disasters in a warmer world – https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-needs-new-homes-but-they-must-be-built-to-withstand-disasters-in-a-warmer-world-249702

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian LGBTIQ+ politicians were hit with vile online abuse at the last federal election. The coming campaign could be even worse

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elise Stephenson, Deputy Director, Global Institute for Women’s Leadership, Australian National University

    Newly published research has found clear evidence that openly lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans, intersex, and queer+ (LGBTIQ+) Australian politicians were disproportionately targeted with personal abuse on social media at the last federal election. Given global trends, it’s unlikely to be any different this year.

    Simply logging off is not an option for candidates, who need to communicate with voters. As a result, some politicians will continue to face risky online visibility.

    Since Elon Musk acquired Twitter/X, hate speech has surged, particularly for public figures such as parliamentarians.

    So what do these trends mean for queer candidates ahead of this year’s election? And why does it matter for the next generation of politically engaged young people?

    Queer politicians targeted

    We analysed more than 100,000 tweets across the Twitter profiles of eight openly queer politicians and candidates (Penny Wong, Julian Hill, Nita Green, Tim Wilson, Janet Rice, Rachael Jacobs, Claire Garton, Stephen Bates) during the 2022 federal election campaign. We compared them with eight other politicians (Zoe Daniel, Graham Perrett, Lidia Thorpe, Anthony Chisholm, Barbara Pocock, Simon Birmingham, Deborah O’Neill, David Shoebridge) in the same period.

    We suspected that political hopefuls who publicly identified as LGBTIQ+ may have experienced greater levels of abuse and harassment. But what we found surprised us.

    The level of online intimidation was roughly the same for queer and non-queer politicians. However, the type of abuse differed significantly.

    Queer politicians endured highly personal harassment that specifically targeted their gender or physical appearance. They suffered nasty queer-specific slurs, transphobic messages and ableist language. Essentially, nothing that was related to their policies or politics.

    Meanwhile, straight, cisgender politicians received harassment that was typically political in nature. More of it focused on their party or platform. It wasn’t as personal (with the exception of Thorpe, who received high levels of racist abuse). While overtly hostile, for straight politicians in general much of the harassment received might be considered an unavoidable part of the democratic political process in the social media age.

    Our research provides a useful retrospective of some of the vitriol that proliferated during the last election.

    One such event began with YouTube commentator Jordan Shanks breaking a salacious story of repeated sexual misconduct by staffers in Canberra, purportedly in MPs offices and in the parliamentary multi-faith prayer room.

    Our data tracked the way queer male politicians were wrongly affiliated and tagged in the scandal. They were unfairly accused and ridiculed. The unfounded attacks were non-partisan, involving politicians from across the major parties. This indicated a single point of commonality – their sexuality.

    Liberal MP Tim Wilson, who had no involvement in the scandal, received over 2000 tweets explicitly mentioning the incident. Many were overtly homophobic, using terms such as “toy boy”, “rentboy”, “parasite” and “prayer room pervert”.

    How it puts off politically engaged young people

    The data indicates that queer politicians face a double bind. The personal hate they experience negatively impacts them as individuals and also distracts from genuine political debate. Trolling, hate speech, and a prohibitive online environment stymies open and constructive political dialogue.

    Furthermore, identity based harassment discourages queer people from pursuing political careers in the first place. Or staying in politics once they’ve experienced the hate. It erodes their sense of safety when engaging in public discourse and undermines the foundations upon which democracy is built.

    In a follow-up study of 98 politically engaged, young gender and sexuality diverse people, we found that online violence and a lack of workplace safety were some of the biggest barriers for them in considering a career in politics.

    The upcoming election

    We expect the personal harassment of queer politicians will continue to escalate across multiple platforms, including X, Facebook and Instagram.

    For instance, we have seen a sharp rise in anti-LGBTIQ+ hate and extremism across the United States. Online spaces are likely to become even less safe for queer politicians in 2025, than they were in 2022.

    Big tech is making it easier for abuse and harassment to flourish in the online world.

    Musk has fired 80% of engineers responsible for content regulation on X. He has also liked transphobic tweets and deemed the words “cis and “cisgender ” to be slurs, that were subsequently banned on X.

    Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has also removed protections that prevented hate speech on Facebook.

    More users are deserting X due to the malicious content and lack of safeguards. But with a closely integrated social media environment, online violence can follow politicians across platforms, both social and legacy. There is no escaping the bile.

    Demanding better of online platforms

    Social media regulation is difficult. Tech giants have already threatened to withdraw their services from Australia over laws that would force them to pay for news content.

    Online platforms may claim to only be the “messenger”, but the reality is that design features like anonymity and business decisions like removing content moderation will cause even more harm.

    Until a critical mass of countries demand better protections, some individuals, including queer politicians, will always be at a disadvantage in this asymmetric online war.

    Elise Stephenson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Elise is part of research projects funded by the eSafety Commissioner on combating online violence. The research quoted in this article received funding from the Gender Institute at the ANU.

    Gosia Mikolajczak collaborates with Women for Election on a project funded by the Australian Government Office for Women, aiming to increase the number and diversity of women running for public office. She has previously worked on an Australian Research Council Linkage project that examined gender inequalities in local government in Victoria.

    Blair Williams and Jack Hayes do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australian LGBTIQ+ politicians were hit with vile online abuse at the last federal election. The coming campaign could be even worse – https://theconversation.com/australian-lgbtiq-politicians-were-hit-with-vile-online-abuse-at-the-last-federal-election-the-coming-campaign-could-be-even-worse-250039

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ne Zha 2: the ancient philosophies behind China’s record-breaking new animated film

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yanyan Hong, PhD Candidate in Communication and Media Studies, University of Adelaide

    IMDB

    On the surface, Ne Zha 2: The Sea’s Fury (2025), the sequel to the 2019 Chinese blockbuster Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child, is a high-octane, action-packed and visually stunning animated spectacle, full of hilarious moments and thrilling fight scenes.

    But beneath all that, it’s something much deeper: a bold re-imagining of Chinese traditional mythology, cultural history and philosophies.

    Unlike Hollywood’s classic hero’s journey, Ne Zha 2 is rooted in Chinese thought, weaving together ideas from Buddhism, Confucianism, Daoism, Mohism, Legalism and more.

    Through the story of a baby-faced warrior god who battles demons, it channels centuries of Chinese tradition into something refreshing, relevant and undeniably global.

    The film’s success speaks for itself. Directed by Yang Yu (aka Jiao Zi), Ne Zha 2 has shattered multiple global box office records, pulling in more than US$1 billion in China in just one week.

    It has even entered the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, and is the second highest-grossing animated film behind Inside Out 2 (2024).

    But what makes Ne Zha 2 so compelling beyond its visual spectacle? At its heart, it’s an inspiring story about identity, free will, self-determination and rebellion – ideas that resonate far beyond China.

    A child hero forged in myth and philosophy

    Ne Zha is a rebellious deity in traditional Chinese folklore – a boy born with immense superpower, who defies both divine and social expectations.

    Most people who know of Ne Zha will trace his legend back to Fengshen Yanyi, or Investiture of the Gods, a Ming Dynasty novel that blends mythology with historical elements.

    Ne Zha’s true origins, however, trace back to India.

    “Ne Zha” is a shortened transliteration of the Sanskrit Nalakuvara (or Nalakūbara), an Indian mythological figure who appears in Buddhist and Hindu mythology.

    As Buddhism spread to China during the Tang Dynasty, Ne Zha evolved from an intimidating guardian deity into the rebellious, fire-wheeled warrior we know today.

    In Ne Zha 2, this “fighting spirit” against authority and hierarchy is taken even further, turning the story into a deeper philosophical exploration of morality, fate, self-worth and power.

    Good and evil – a Daoist perspective

    One of the most thought-provoking aspects of Ne Zha 2 is how it challenges the idea of good and evil.

    In Daoist philosophy, evil and good, often known as Yin and Yang, are not absolute, but are rather shifting, interconnected forces.

    Through its two protagonists: the “Demon Pill” (Ne Zha) and his noble dragon prince buddy, “Spirit Pearl” (Ao Bing), the film beautifully reflects this Daoist idea of balance and self-discovery.

    Their merging further blurs the line between hero and villain and brings to life a core concept from the 2,400-year-old text Dao De Jing (Tao Te Ching), written around 400 BC by Chinese philosopher Laozi (also called Lao Tzu).

    Laozi emphasises that righteousness and villainy aren’t always what they seem. “When the world knows beauty as beauty, there arises ugliness,” he says.

    Those we assume to be noble may turn out to be dark inside, while those deemed evil might be fighting for what is right.

    Ne Zha’s character in the film embodies this Daoist philosophy. Echoing the Xisheng Jing, The Scripture of Western Ascension, he declares, “My fate is up to me, not the Heaven.”

    He is the demon child who is willing to die fighting for his own destiny, proving that even the smallest, most underestimated individual can change the world.

    Beyond family bonds: rebirth of Confucianism

    In one scene, Ne Zha is struck by the “heart-piercing curse”, a brutal spell that covers his body in ten thousand thorns, causing unbearable pain and keeping him under control by targeting his heart. Ne Zha’s human mother, Lady Yin, clings to him as his thorns pierce her skin – yet she refuses to let go.

    It’s a moment of heartbreak, parental love and inner awakening. As his mother takes her final breath, in Ne Zha’s grief, his body shatters into a million pieces. And then, he is reborn.

    This is the film’s emotional climax, in which the so-called demon child awakens to “Rén” (benevolence), a core Confucian virtue.

    Confucianism teaches that true morality isn’t imposed by rules but arises naturally from within. Ne Zha doesn’t just seek revenge, he awakes to fight for those who have been oppressed, embracing his identity with unwavering resolve.

    But perhaps the most profound transformation comes from the dragon prince Ao Bing. As the last hope of his people, burdened by centuries of expectation, he finally makes a choice, not for legacy, not for his ancestors, but for himself.

    In this moment, his once-imposing father Dragon King releases his grip: “Your path is yours to forge.”

    The weight of tradition gives way to something new, reflecting a changing China where younger generations are defining their own paths.

    Wisdom of Legalism and Mohism

    Beyond Daoist and Confucian ideals, Ne Zha 2 also weaves in Legalist reform and Mohist resistance. These philosophies challenge rigid hierarchies (or in Ne Zha’s case, “divine order”) and advocate for collective justice.

    Across Ne Zha’s three major trials and the climactic celestial-demon war, a brutal truth emerges: those deemed unworthy – whether groundhogs, mystical beings, or ordinary humans – are sacrificed to uphold the elite’s rule.

    Take the small groundhogs. Dressed in patched clothes, surviving on pumpkin porridge. They’ve never harmed anyone. Yet, they are mercilessly crushed in the name of celestial balance.

    Then there’s Shiji Niangniang, or Lady Rock, a recluse who harms no one. She indulges only in her own beauty and speaks to her enchanted mirror. Yet the heavens brand her a demon, sealing her fate.

    A similar cruelty befalls the Dragon Clan and the people of Chentangguan, all caught in a war where they are mere pawns on a celestial chessboard.

    Even the last battle is not just Ne Zha’s fight, but a battlefield showing the Chinese spirit of collectivism. Dragons, shrimp soldiers, crab generals, octopus warriors, humans and millions of goblins stand side by side to rewrite destiny.

    The celestial-demon war itself plays out like a lesson in Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which states that “All warfare is based on deception.” War is about strategy, resilience and the unstoppable will to rise.

    Ne Zha carries the weight of Eastern cultural essence: Daoist balance, Confucian ethics, Mohist resistance, Legalist reform and the strategic wisdom of The Art of War. It is a truly Chinese story, igniting next year’s Oscar buzz and sparking a global awakening to Eastern culture.

    Just as Ne Zha is reborn in flames, so too does Chinese animation rise, not by breaking from its past, but by forging a bold future.

    Yanyan Hong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ne Zha 2: the ancient philosophies behind China’s record-breaking new animated film – https://theconversation.com/ne-zha-2-the-ancient-philosophies-behind-chinas-record-breaking-new-animated-film-249850

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires – challenging fire fighters and land managers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of Tasmania

    Tasmania has been burning for more than two weeks, with no end in sight. Almost 100,000 hectares of bushland in the northwest has burned to date. This includes the Tarkine rainforest and alpine ecosystems of Cradle Mountain that may never recover.

    The situation has taken emergency services and land management agencies by surprise. The seasonal bushfire outlook for summer 2024 suggested Tasmania’s fire risk was nothing out of the ordinary. The state was also well prepared for bushfire fighting, particularly with specialised aircraft.

    But this fire season has turned out to be anything but typical. Firefighting capacity has been stretched to the limit and interstate crews have been called in.

    It all began with a massive lightning storm in the evening of Monday February 3. The incidence of such lightning fires has been increasing in Tasmania since the 1990s.

    An official inquiry into the bushfires will no doubt be held, given the substantial social, economic and environmental harm – as well as the sizeable costs associated with fighting the fires from the air in remote and rugged landscapes.

    Nonetheless, important lessons are emerging from these fires, which speak to the broader, worsening threat as the climate changes.

    Understanding the impacts of the fires

    Fortunately, direct economic losses from theses fires have been limited so far, despite significant disruption associated with evacuation and road closures. Tourism operators and honey producers have been hardest hit.

    The fires caused brief but substantial smoke pollution across the state, placing a range of people with medical conditions at risk.

    The full environmental effects and the benefits of prescribed burning are yet to be evaluated. Nonetheless, there is grave concern about damage to unique rainforests and alpine ecosystems. If sufficiently dry the organic soils, or peats, that supports forests and treeless areas in western Tasmania are also vulnerable to combustion.

    We undertook a preliminary estimate of how much highly fire-sensitive vegetation – plant communities that will take more than 50 years to recover – may have burned. This involved comparing the current bushfire boundaries or footprint, based on satellite data and field reconnaissance, to vegetation mapping used for various purposes including fire management. We put the figure at 19,716 hectares of vegetation. However, it’s possible not all of this burned and islands of unburned vegetation persist within the broad fire boundary.

    Our estimation includes 10,419 hectares of temperate rainforest (10% of the fire area) and 462 hectares of alpine vegetation (0.45% of the fire area). Neither of these vegetation types can readily tolerate fire.

    Our analysis suggests about half of fire-affected rainforest areas have been previously burned by fires since 1982 (48%) and some small areas have burned twice (5%). Recurrent fires in rainforest can result in permanent loss of this vegetation. Just how much damage has been done will require further assessment.

    Current area affected by bushfires in northwestern Tasmania, comparing data from Geoscience Australia on bushfire boundaries and Land Information Services Tasmania on vegetation. Note, not all of the shaded area has burned.
    Grant Williamson

    Emergence of new fire patterns

    The number of fires ignited by lightning have increased in Tasmania since the 1990s. When the lightning occurs in storms without much rain, or where the rain evaporates before it hits the ground, it’s known as dry lightning.

    Concerningly, in the last decade two other major dry lightning fire events have occurred,
    likely a signal of a change in fire activity. As a result, fires are burning into areas that historically are rarely affected by fire, damaging the natural values of the Tasmanian wilderness.

    This event could not be predicted

    Going into summer, experts were concerned that soils across western Tasmania were particularly dry. This increased the fire risk in the seasonal outlook.

    The recent rapid fire growth in Tasmania was caused by the unusual combination of regional drying (including dry soils), an extreme lightning storm and subsequent strong winds.

    But the sequence of events that caused this fire to take off could not have been predicted more than a week ahead. That’s because it is impossible to predict lightning and windstorms outside the seven-day window of weather forecasts.

    What’s more, our research shows it is currently not possible to reliably predict which lightning strikes will start fire.

    By February 12, more than a dozen fires had burned around 50,000 hectares in the state’s northwest.
    NASA Earth Observatory

    Rapid attack and fire suppression have practical limits

    Massive lightning storms that ignite multiple fires overwhelm the capacity of firefighters to locate and immediately extinguish all the flames.

    Unfavourable weather conditions caused the west coast fires to rapidly grow. Firefighting shifted from attempts to extinguish the fire to instead contain its spread. This involved techniques such as targeted waterbombing, back burning and building fire breaks.

    These approaches have been successful in some cases, notably the deployment of retardant drops to contain the Canning Peak fire, saving extensive stands of conifer rainforest. But suppression efforts were imperfect, as the loss of a private tourist facility hut on the Overland Track has demonstrated.

    Managing these massive fires demands triage – making difficult choices about where to direct firefighting effort. Effective triage requires a detailed understanding of the location of areas of high economic, cultural and environmental value. High-quality mapping of these sites and involvement of specialists in the broader decision-making process is essential.

    The Tasmanian government does have maps and expertise to guide triage, but there are calls for more investment to protect the region’s ecological values. This is particularly important for small, localised sites vulnerable to fire, such as groves of ancient Huon pine.

    Fires continue to burn in Tasmania’s west, putting wilderness areas at risk (7.30)

    Broader lessons for fire fighting

    Dry lightning storms are hard to predict, extraordinarily difficult to contain, and can cause substantial economic, social and environmental harms.

    Technology alone – such as that which combines satellites, artificial intelligence, drones and water bombers – is not enough to eliminate these fires. What’s needed is a diverse portfolio of approaches, involving a combination of:

    • reducing fuel loads by prescribed burning
    • firefighting that is carefully targeted using high quality data
    • expertise embedded in firefighting teams.

    Researchers and fire managers must also identify the best strategies for prescribed burning to reduce bushfire risk while protecting areas of high economic, conservation and cultural value.

    Climate change will bring more frequent monster fires – and fighting them demands a broad suite of investment.

    David Bowman is an Australian Research Council Laureate Fellow and also receives funding from the New South Wales Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre, and Natural Hazards Research Australia.

    Grant Williamson receives funding from the NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre, and Natural Hazards Research Australia.

    – ref. More dry lightning in Tasmania is sparking bushfires – challenging fire fighters and land managers – https://theconversation.com/more-dry-lightning-in-tasmania-is-sparking-bushfires-challenging-fire-fighters-and-land-managers-250063

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: More than half of Australia’s homes were built before fire standards came in. Here are 5 ways to retrofit them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Subha Parida, Lecturer in Property, University of South Australia

    Carl Oberg/Shutterstock

    Houses and fire do not mix. The firestorm which hit Los Angeles in January destroyed nearly 2,000 buildings and forced 130,000 people to evacuate.

    The 2019–20 Australian megafires destroyed almost 2,800 homes. This summer, houses and buildings have been lost in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania.

    As temperatures inch upwards, bushfires will become more severe and more frequent, posing risks to more homes. But fires don’t affect homes equally. Older homes built before fire resilience standards became mandatory are at higher risk of going up in flames.

    In the aftermath of the devastating LA fires, there are signs that newer homes have fared better than older ones. Previous fires in California and Australia have shown newer homes built with fire-resilient features are more likely to survive than older homes.

    The problem is, more than half (55%) of Australia’s homes were built 30 or more years ago – before national standards for fire resilience were introduced.

    The good news: you can take action to make older homes more resilient.

    Why are new homes better able to survive bushfires?

    Location, vegetation and luck play a role in determining which houses survive fires. But there is also evidence newer homes with heat- and ember-resistant features survive better.

    Construction standards in both Australia and the United States require the use of materials and designs which reduce fire risk.

    In Australia, the national construction standards have been in place since the early 1990s. Over time, the standards have expanded to include more fire-resistant features, such as fire-resistant external walls.

    By contrast, older homes are more likely to be built of flammable materials such as wood and untreated timber. Older homes are also more likely to have mature trees and shrubs closer to the house, which can increase fire risk. But as the CSIRO Bushfire Best Practice Guide points out, “trees can also be used to shield against wind, absorb radiant heat, and to filter embers […] when located at a safe distance from the house”.

    More exacting construction standards apply for homes built in areas considered at risk of bushfire. State and territory governments have interactive maps of these areas.

    Unfortunately, climate change is expanding these areas at risk. As the LA wildfires show, warmer climates mean fire can attack suburbs and cities thought to be safe from bushfire.

    Climate change is also making home ownership more expensive, as insurance premiums rise in the wake of more expensive disasters. Analysts predict banks may begin rejecting mortgage applications for properties in areas at high risk from fire.

    Older homes are more likely to burn if a bushfire comes through.
    Ekaterina Kamenetsky/Shutterstock

    How can we make older homes more resilient?

    Older homes remain highly sought after, especially in cities such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

    But for these homes to be brought up to modern standards of bushfire resistance, they often require significant retrofitting. These retrofits can drastically reduce the risk of ignition.

    How do houses actually ignite? Wind-blown embers are a common cause in starting house fires. If a few houses in a town start burning, the fire can spread house to house.

    Here are 5 ways to protect your older house:

    1. Upgrade external vents. Traditional external vents are designed to ventilate rooms and roofs. But they also permit embers to gain access to attics and crawl spaces and spark a fire. Upgrading to ember-resistant vents can directly improve your home’s resilience.

    2. Install ember gutter guards. Ember-resistant gutter guards are made of metal and have finer mesh than normal gutter guards. These help to prevent the build-up of dry leaves and twigs and stop small embers from landing.

    3. Upgrade windows and walls. You can cut your risk further by installing bushfire-resistant shutters for windows, using fire-resistant material for wall insulation and replacing combustible material with better alternatives such as metal roofing, fibre cement siding for walls and tempered glass windows.

    4. Check your deck and verandah. Wooden decks and verandahs are risky in high-risk areas. If they need to be rebuilt, choose fire-resistant materials.

    5. Make space around your home. In fire-prone areas, removing trees and shrubs within 20 metres of the house can reduce risk. A well-managed area of pavers and low-density plants and shrubs close to the home acts as a fire break.

    Ahead of fire season, making and updating an evacuation plan is equally vital. Homeowners should prepare emergency kits with essential documents, medications, and protective gear. If a fire starts in your area, applying fire-retardant gels to surfaces at risk can provide temporary protection.

    In high risk areas, ensuring clear space between vegetation and the house can cut fire risk. Pictured: a house in Balmoral, New South Wales, after fire passed through in 2020.
    Daria Nipot/Shutterstock

    Homeowners can use the National Emergency Management Authority’s bushfire resilience rating app to assess their home’s bushfire risk and to see which retrofits are highest priority.

    State or territory governments offer advice on making your house more resistant to fire attack: New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory, Australian Capital Territory.

    Protecting our homes takes time – and money

    Australia’s housing crisis has been front page news for months. As we head towards the federal election, it will remain a hot-button issue. Unfortunately, we haven’t yet heard discussion of the risk posed to our housing stock from bushfires made worse by climate change.

    While planning controls and building standards can raise the standards of future homes, better support and incentives are needed to retrofit existing homes – especially for those built before fire safety standards became the norm.

    Retrofitting is crucial. But it’s not cheap. Costs can range from A$8,500 to $47,000 per property.

    These expenses can be prohibitive for many homeowners. Initiatives such as the Bushfire Resilience Rating Home Self-Assessment app can result in insurers offering premium discounts to homeowners using it to introduce recommended measures.

    In some areas, local governments offer financial assistance for retrofitting, such as the Bushfire Wise Rebate by Ku-ring-gai Council in NSW.

    Without greater financial support or government incentives, a significant portion of Australia’s housing stock will remain vulnerable, increasing risks as climate change expands fire-prone areas.

    Subha Parida receives receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI)

    Lyrian Daniel receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).

    Michaela Lang receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).

    – ref. More than half of Australia’s homes were built before fire standards came in. Here are 5 ways to retrofit them – https://theconversation.com/more-than-half-of-australias-homes-were-built-before-fire-standards-came-in-here-are-5-ways-to-retrofit-them-249490

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian women will soon be eligible for a menopause health check. Here’s what to expect

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Davis, Chair of Women’s Health, Monash University

    SpeedKingz/Shutterstock

    The federal government has recently pledged to create a new Medicare rebate for menopause health assessments. It’s due to be available from July 1.

    The announcement featured in the government’s response to the Senate inquiry into menopause, released last week, though was first flagged earlier this month as part of the government’s pre-election funding package for women’s health.

    So what is a menopause health assessment? And how will it improve the health care women receive during this stage in their lives?

    Why we need this

    Outside reproductive health, women’s health care has generally been modelled on the needs of men. A prime example is the government-funded midlife health check for people aged 45 to 49. This is intended to identify and manage risks to prevent chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease.

    The recent Senate inquiry into issues related to menopause and perimenopuase highlighted that the timing of this health check is not fit for purpose for women. This is because at menopause, which occurs on average at the age of 51 in Australia, women’s health profiles change.

    Women gain tummy fat, their cholesterol levels go up, and glucose (sugar) metabolism becomes less efficient. All these changes increase a woman’s risk of heart disease and diabetes.

    Vast numbers of women are given a clean bill of health at this midlife health check in their late 40s. But when they subsequently go through menopause, they can go on to develop heart disease and diabetes risk factors, which may go undetected.

    Some women also go through early menopause: around 12% between the ages of 40 and 45, and around 4% before 40.

    Those women who experience menopause before age 45 are known to be at significantly higher risk of heart disease than other women. But, by the time women with early menopause qualify for the midlife health check, crucial metabolic changes may have silently occurred, and the opportunity to intervene early to address them may be missed.

    Changes that happen at menopause can increase a woman’s risk of developing a chronic disease.
    Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

    What will a menopause health check involve?

    The federal government has committed A$26 million over two years to fund the new menopause health assessments, as part of a $64.5 million package designed to improve health care for women experiencing perimenopause and menopause.

    Some $12.8 million will also be dedicated to a menopause-related community awareness campaign.

    My own research has shown women understand menopause means the loss of fertility, but often have little knowledge of the health changes that occur as part of the menopause transition. So increasing health literacy around menopause is much needed.

    Similarly, for the introduction of these menopause-specific consultations to be effective, women will need to know what these health checks are for, if they’re eligible, and how to access a menopause health check.

    The new menopause health checks will be provided by GPs. Exactly what they will involve is yet to be clarified. But I would anticipate they will include a combination of the assessment and management of perimenopause and menopause, overall health and wellbeing, and assessment of risk and prevention of future ill health, notably heart disease, diabetes and osteoporosis.

    Upskilling health-care providers

    Equally, health-care providers will need to understand the impact of menopause on long-term health and how best to mitigate against disease risks, including the role of menopausal hormone therapy.

    My research has shown health-care providers lack confidence in delivering menopause-related care, indicating a need for more education around menopause.

    In line with this, the Senate inquiry called for the upskilling of the medical workforce in the field of menopause through medical school training, postgraduate specialist programs, and ongoing education of clinicians.

    Women in Australia will soon be able to access menopause health assessments.
    Sabrina Bracher/Shutterstock

    While the government cannot mandate what is taught in medical schools or the content of specialist training programs, its response to the inquiry encourages these institutions to incorporate menopause in their curricula.

    Further, part of the government funding will go towards expanding a professional development program on managing menopause offered by Jean Hailes for Women’s Health.

    A good start, but still not enough

    The government’s new funding, and the new menopause health checks in particular, recognises that women’s health is strongly dictated by major biological events, such as menopause, as opposed to age.

    This is good news. But we need to do more to equip health professionals to provide the best menopause care to women in these health assessments and beyond.

    Adding new menopause modules to medical school and specialist training programs will ensure greater awareness of the impact of menopause on women’s health and wellbeing. However, awareness alone won’t ensure high-level training for the complex care many perimenopausal and menopausal women need.

    The opportunities for medical graduates to gain hands-on clinical experience in menopausal medicine are mostly limited to the select few who get to work in a hospital specialist menopause clinic during their training.

    Notably, there’s no credentialed training program in menopause medicine in Australia. Meanwhile, the North American Menopause Society does offer a credentialed program.

    The challenge has been that menopause does not belong to one medical specialty. This is why we need an accredited training program – for both GPs and medical specialists – to ensure a truly skilled workforce able to deliver gold standard menopause care.

    But without further federal funding to set this up, it will not happen.

    Susan Davis receives funding from NHMRC, Medical Research Future Fund, the Heart Foundation, MS Australia. She has prepared and delivered educational presentations for Besins Healthcare, Bayer, and Mayne Pharma and has served on Advisory Boards for Theramex, Astellas, Abbott Laboratories, Mayne Pharma, and Besins Healthcare. She is a Member of the Executive of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

    – ref. Australian women will soon be eligible for a menopause health check. Here’s what to expect – https://theconversation.com/australian-women-will-soon-be-eligible-for-a-menopause-health-check-heres-what-to-expect-249499

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How to protect more Australian homes from the growing risks of floods, fires and other climate disasters

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annette Kroen, Research Fellow Planning and Transport, RMIT University

    The cleanup is underway in northern Queensland following the latest flooding catastrophe to hit the state. More than 7,000 insurance claims have already been lodged, most of them for inundated homes and other structures.

    The Queensland floods are a reminder that climate-induced natural disasters are becoming more frequent and severe in Australia. Recent reports have identified the high number of Australian homes that are vulnerable to the increased risks of floods, coastal erosion and bushfires.

    Despite the evidence of escalating danger to homes and communities, we are ill-prepared for severe weather events. A new report from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute spells out the case for better integration, especially of urban planning processes. This is urgently needed to reduce the exposure of housing to growing disaster risks.

    Top priorities for planning authorities must include an end to building homes in the wrong locations, such as flood zones, and improving the resilience of dwellings to disaster hazards.

    Poor coordination

    At the national level, there is little integration of the three pillars of sound strategy: housing policy, settlement planning and disaster management. For example, neither housing policy nor planning frameworks incorporate disaster preparedness or mitigation.

    A focus on disaster response and recovery also hinders proper coordination in the disaster prevention area, even though avoidance in the first place is clearly more cost effective.

    However, this may be changing. Both the Issues Paper for the National Housing and Homelessness Plan and State of the Housing System report have acknowledged climate change and natural disasters are risk factors affecting housing.

    And the National Urban Policy includes “sustainable and resilient” as one of its three major goals for liveable cities.

    At the state and territory level, there is more clearly defined coordination through state emergency management planning. It also occurs via fire agencies that advise on planning proposals.

    In New South Wales, the NSW Reconstruction Authority is responsible for developing and implementing the State Disaster Mitigation Plan and for housing recovery.

    This means settlement planning and relevant housing issues are directly under the auspices of the agency responsible for disaster prevention and recovery. This is one way to improve integration, but further coordination with housing and planning agencies would be desirable.

    Greater focus on risk reduction

    Relevant Australian agencies are enhancing their approaches to disaster management in relation to housing. But housing policy still needs to accord greater priority to disaster risk reduction. This includes the location and resilience of housing relative to climate change hazards, such as fires and floods.

    In settlement planning, tensions between disaster risk reduction and economic and other development goals need to be addressed. Planning processes and policies to move communities away from risk areas via managed retreat and possibly compensation schemes must be developed.

    We can look to international experience for guidance. In Quebec, Canada the provincial government offered significant funding towards property buybacks after floods in 2017 and 2019. It also introduced a cap on disaster aid in high risk locations. Bylaw regulations banned any new developments or reconstruction.

    Households had to decide to either relocate or bear the cost of repeated disaster recovery. This strategy is an example of a successful relocation plan in an area at risk of repeated future flooding.

    The strategy received a relatively positive response from the affected municipalities and homeowners, potentially due to the generous buyout offers.

    This example illustrates the need for policies to manage disaster risk and urban development much more clearly.

    Better integration needed

    A whole of government approach that establishes clear policy and planning responsibilities would improve integration. It would also allow agencies to develop clearer strategies for the task. Improved data availability and harmonisation of risk identification would further support good decision making by housing and planning agencies.

    At the operational level, more staff exchanges between housing, planning, and emergency agencies would support capacity building.

    Detailed evaluations of housing experiences and planning outcomes from previous disasters would underpin improvements and integration. This occurs to some extent through formal statutory inquiries into disasters.

    A standardised evaluation for housing and planning agencies would provide more focused insights. One idea is to gauge temporary housing programs to build an inventory of suitable and available temporary housing types.

    In addition to coordination between government agencies, there is also a need to better communicate with the public on potential disaster risks. Local communities need to be included in planning, both for short-term disaster management and longer-term resettlement decisions.

    If we fail to better integrate housing policy with disaster preparation, we will continue to build on flood plains and other high risk areas. People, and their homes, will remain on the front line of deadly natural disasters.

    Annette Kroen receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.

    RMIT University receives finding from AHURI and NHRA to support Jago Dodson’s research which is relevant to this article, as well as a range of other funding sources.

    – ref. How to protect more Australian homes from the growing risks of floods, fires and other climate disasters – https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-more-australian-homes-from-the-growing-risks-of-floods-fires-and-other-climate-disasters-249860

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Economic ‘green shoots’ and lower interest rates disguise worrying trends in NZ’s job market

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, PhD candidate, NZ Policy Research Institute, Auckland University of Technology

    Max Dallocco/Shutterstock

    Despite Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s reassurance that “some green shoots” are starting to show in the economy, including a 50 point cut in the official cash rate expected to be announced later today, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain for many – and grim for some.

    Unemployment reached 5.1% in the final quarter of 2024, the highest level since 2020, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. That translates to a total of 156,000 unemployed individuals.

    At the same time, a 1% decrease in gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2024 puts more pressure on the job market.

    While the unemployment rate may not have reached the levels of past crises – the rate exceeded 6% during the 2008-2009 recession – the devil is in the detail.

    The Stats NZ data show the most affected sectors include male-dominated occupations such as technicians and machinery operators, accounting for 85% of the latest job losses.

    Women have seen smaller declines in employment and a slight increase in transitions to part-time roles. But the shift from full-time to part-time employment, especially among men, suggests the creation of quality full-time jobs will be a challenge.

    Job losses concentrated in male-dominated industries also have broader economic implications. They may signal shifts in household income dynamics, particularly for families that depend on a male breadwinner.

    It could also contribute to rising male underemployment (when a worker’s job doesn’t fully utilise their skills, education or experience) and further disparities in the employment rates of men and women.

    Overall, these trends raise questions about the nature and quality of work now available in the job market, and what strategies the government can respond with.

    A rise in ‘discouraged’ workers

    In the fourth quarter of 2024, the annualised employment rate (representing the proportion of the working-age population employed over a year, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations) was 67.4%, compared with 69% in the same period of the previous year.

    This is the most significant decline since 2009. It reflects job losses and a “discouraged worker” effect.

    Discouraged workers are those who have stopped seeking employment due to a perceived lack of opportunities. Instead of remaining in the labour force, they may rely on savings, family support, welfare, or transition into informal or temporary work.

    According to recent data, the most affected sectors include male-dominated occupations such as technicians and machinery operators.
    Kajohnwit Boonsom/Shutterstock

    A drop in quality work

    The rise in part-time employment, particularly among men, raises concerns about the quality of the labour market. Although employment levels appear stable, the growth of less secure jobs may conceal structural weaknesses.

    In the fourth quarter of 2024, the number in part-time employment reached 585,000, the highest figure since 1986. Over the past year, 36,000 men left full-time jobs, while 9,000 transitioned to part-time work.

    One of the main risks of this trend is that companies may be cutting costs without resorting to mass layoffs, which implies reduced job security for workers. Many of these transitions to part-time employment are not voluntary but rather a sign that the economy is not generating enough stable job opportunities.

    Additionally, part-time jobs often offer lower wages, fewer benefits and fewer opportunities for career advancement.

    This type of employment can contribute to stagnation in skill development and reduce workers’ purchasing power, ultimately affecting consumer spending and overall economic growth.

    There is also a perception of discrimination against part-time workers, with one in three reporting feeling discriminated against in their jobs.

    A year of two halves

    While consumer confidence has been low, recent revisions to economic growth estimates suggest the economy hasn’t been as weak as perceived.

    Current projections are that unemployment may reach a peak between 5.3% and 5.6% in mid-2025 and then trend downwards.

    With inflation now within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range, changes in the official cash rate are needed to contain the damage to a weakened labour market. The central bank is forecast to cut the interest rate by 50-points today.

    The weak growth in the working-age population and a potential decline in labour force participation could limit how high unemployment rises, as fewer people may be actively looking for work. But this does not mean a strong recovery is imminent.

    New Zealand faces a significant but not insurmountable challenge. An unemployment rate of 5.1% should raise a red flag and is devastating for the increasing number of workers who have lost their jobs. But the data also show the increase is part of an anticipated economic cycle.

    What matters is how the government reacts to the increases in unemployment and changes to the job market. A supportive job-creation policy and a coordinated strategy for the most affected sectors will be key in avoiding long-lasting pain in the labour market.

    Cristóbal Castro Barrientos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Economic ‘green shoots’ and lower interest rates disguise worrying trends in NZ’s job market – https://theconversation.com/economic-green-shoots-and-lower-interest-rates-disguise-worrying-trends-in-nzs-job-market-249685

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Here’s why increasing productivity in housing construction is such a tricky problem to solve

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Loosemore, Professor of Construction Management, University of Technology Sydney

    This week, the Productivity Commission released its much-awaited report into productivity growth in Australia’s housing construction sector. It wasn’t a glowing appraisal.

    The commission found physical productivity – the total number of houses built per hour worked – has more than halved over the past 30 years.

    The more nuanced measure of labour productivity – which accounts for improvements in size and quality – has also fallen, by 12%.

    Both measures put home-building productivity well behind the broader economy, something the report’s authors attribute to “decades of poor performance”.

    We’ve known about this problem for a long time. The Productivity Commission’s report is well researched and makes some sensible recommendations.

    Solving the underlying problem will require a coordinated approach between government, home-owners, construction companies and workers.

    Measuring productivity

    Housing can take many forms. However, from a productivity perspective, the process of development is essentially the same.

    In very simple terms it involves:

    • concept and initial design, feasibility, finance and business case development
    • land acquisition and due diligence
    • detailed design, development and building approvals
    • pre-construction planning and working drawings
    • construction project management
    • practical completion, final certificates and settlement, commissioning and handover.

    There are no official estimates of housing construction productivity. So, the Productivity Commission used Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data to create its own new measures to capture productivity across this entire process.

    Falling or flat-lining productivity in this sector is a well-known long-term problem. Under the National Housing Accord, the federal government has committed to building 1.2 million new well-located homes by the end of this decade.

    But in the first three months since the National Housing Accord was launched, only 44,884 homes were built across Australia. That’s about 15,000 fewer than the required quarterly target of 60,000.

    The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council projects that new market housing supply will ultimately come in at about a quarter of a million homes below the accord’s target.

    4 key problems

    The report identified four key factors behind the malaise:

    1. complex, slow approvals, as well as delayed construction certificates and essential infrastructure connections
    2. lack of innovation and slow uptake of digital technologies and modern methods of construction
    3. the dominance of smaller building firms resulting in low economies-of-scale and project management challenges associated with supply chain fragmentation
    4. difficulties attracting and retaining skilled workers resulting in skills and labour shortages.

    The report proposes seven reform directions in response. These centre on speeding up the planning approval process, investing in research and development, and increasing workforce flexibility.

    Fixing things won’t be simple

    The Productivity Commission’s report has brought a welcome focus on planning and approvals as a key element of easing the housing crisis.

    It acknowledges that under-resourcing of agencies involved in the approvals process, such as local governments, has made the problem worse.

    One issue with increasing the number of planning approvals processed is that you then need to have a construction industry that can build fast enough to keep up with them.

    Currently, we don’t. Industry research shows since 2013, the number of workers within Australia’s construction workforce has increased by more than 25%. But they are working 2% fewer hours each year, and achieving an output that’s 25.4% lower.

    Keeping an eye on quality

    Amid any push to speed up approvals, we need to be mindful of the possible risks. Loosening building regulations can increase the risk of quality problems and inappropriate development.

    If widespread across the industry, such problems can cause significant personal and economic harm to households, social and economic costs for society. They can also increase building costs, insurance premiums and strata fees.

    This problem calls for a range of tools to reduce the risk of compromising on quality when regulations are loosened or changed. New South Wales has two key pieces of legislation in place that could act as a model for other states.

    One allows owners to sue if a person who carries out construction work fails to exercise reasonable care. The other allows the Building Commission to investigate building work and require rectification of defects for up to six years.

    NSW also has an independent builder trustworthiness rating scheme. This is known as iCirt and operated by credit rating agency Equifax.

    Innovation isn’t a panacea

    A major feature of the Productivity Commission’s report discusses the housing construction industry’s low innovation culture.

    However, much innovation is hidden from view, since it occurs at the manufacturing stage. And innovation itself is not a panacea.

    While calling for greater innovation seems obvious on the surface, research has shown its ability to increase productivity depends on a wide range of factors and is certainly not guaranteed. It can even increase costs and reduce quality and productivity if not managed effectively.

    More holistic workforce planning

    The report also highlights issues with attracting and retaining a skilled workforce. Issues include low apprenticeship take-up and completion rates, restrictive trade pathways, and large infrastructure projects drawing talent away.

    This raises a bigger issue. Despite workforce planning across the industry by the Construction Industry Training Board the industry still seems to be constantly reacting to a skilled labour shortage rather than planning ahead to predict and prevent one.



    Read more:
    Will new $10,000 apprentice payments help solve job shortages in construction? Not anytime soon

    Martin Loosemore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Here’s why increasing productivity in housing construction is such a tricky problem to solve – https://theconversation.com/heres-why-increasing-productivity-in-housing-construction-is-such-a-tricky-problem-to-solve-250048

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Loss of forests brought new birds to NZ during the last Ice Age – we’re witnessing a similar process now

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pascale Lubbe, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Molecular Ecology, University of Otago

    Royal spoonbills are among several new species that have crossed the Tasman and naturalised in New Zealand. JJ Harrison/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    When people arrived on the shores of Aotearoa New Zealand and began to turn the land to their needs, they set in motion great changes.

    The landscape of today bears little resemblance to that of a mere thousand years ago. More than 70% of forest cover has been lost since human arrival. Native bush has been replaced by tussocks, scrublands and, most of all, open agricultural land.

    These changes affected our birdlife dramatically. Some species, like the moa, were simply hunted to extinction. Others fell directly to mammalian predators. Many species were victims of severe habitat destruction. The loss of suitable habitat remains a key conservation challenge to this day.

    However, a changing distribution of plants is not a uniquely modern feature. New Zealand has seen equally radical shifts in habitat before – during the Ice Age, which lasted 2.6 million years and ended about 12,000 years ago.

    This reconstruction shows the extend of glaciers during the height of the last Ice Age some 20,000 years ago.
    Shulmeister et al, 2019, CC BY-SA

    At its height, parts of the country were up to 6°C colder than today, and glacial ice sheets spread wide fingers across the Southern Alps. The dry, cold climate resulted in widespread grass and scrubland. Forest cover became patchy everywhere except for the northern North Island.

    Our new research tracks how bird life responded to these changes – in particular how exotic species took advantage of the shifting landscapes to make New Zealand home.

    Ice Age invaders

    Native birds responded to the Ice Age in a variety of ways. Kiwi populations became so isolated in forest patches they split into new lineages. Several moa species moved across the landscape, following their shifting habitat.

    Some groups adapted, spreading into novel environments. Kea split off from their relatives the kākā, becoming more generalised. This is known as in situ adaptation; an existing group changing its habits or character to deal with new environments.

    But where new ecological opportunities arise, species from elsewhere will also come to take advantage of them. Our research uncovers a pulse of colonisation by exotic bird species that coincides with the reduction of forest cover and the expansion of grasslands at the start of the Ice Age some 2.6 million years ago.

    Many endemic New Zealand birds belong to young lineages that date back to landscape changes during the last Ice Age.
    Wikimedia Commons, Te Papa by Paul Martinson, CC BY-SA

    These species were primarily generalists, able to take advantage of a variety of habitats. But there was also an influx of birds pre-adapted to more open conditions, such as the ancestors of Haast’s eagle, pūtangitangi (paradise shelduck) and pīhoihoi (pipit).

    Where did these “invaders” come from? Principally, from Australia. For millions of years, they have ridden the winds across the Tasman Sea and, occasionally, established breeding colonies on our shores.

    Over a long enough time, those new populations evolved to become distinct, endemic New Zealand species found nowhere else on earth. Pīwakawaka (fantail), ruru (morepork), weweia (dabchick) and kakī (black stilt), to name a few, are all descended from Ice Age Australian ancestors.

    They arrived in a New Zealand characterised by scrub, tussock and grass during cold glacial periods, followed by slowly expanding forests during warmer interglacials.

    History repeats itself

    Today, open vistas once again dominate the landscape. This time they were sculpted by humans rather than a cooling climate. The changing environment means new ecological opportunities – and vacancies – have been left by the great number of species that have gone extinct.

    The open landscapes of today mirror the impacts of the Ice Age. Forest cover is reduced, grass and scrub cover the North and South islands.
    Lubbe et al, 2025, CC BY-SA

    Correspondingly, many new species have naturalised on our shores. Welcome swallows, royal spoonbills, Australian coots, spur winged plovers and white-faced herons started making their home here during the 1930s to 50s.

    Silvereyes have been here longer, first reported during the 1850s, while glossy ibis and barn owl only started breeding here this century. All likely flew across the Tasman to settle here.

    Some arrivals seem to serve as ecological replacements of a kind. The kāhu (swamp harrier) is a stand-in for the now-extinct Eyles’ harrier and Haast’s eagle. The poaka (pied stilt) is a common sight where kakī once dominated. And Australian coots proliferate where New Zealand coots once waded.

    Native habitats for native birds

    These birds are following ancient patterns and processes. Where new opportunities appear, new organisms will rise to fill them. Our highly modified ecosystems are responding in the only way open to them, with exotic species expanding their range to take advantage of empty ecological niches – job vacancies in the ecosystem.

    Indeed, these invasions are likely to become more frequent as species distributions shift in a warming climate. As our native species decline under threats of habitat loss and predation by mammalian pests, they will be ecologically replaced by other species.

    Left to their own devices, Aotearoa’s plants and animals will look different in the future. The unique species that have called these islands home for millions of years will increasingly be replaced by more generalist species from elsewhere.

    The good news is that in predator-free native bush, endemic birds can outcompete introduced species.

    The route to protecting our native species in a fast changing world remains as clear as ever – protect and restore native habitat and eradicate mammalian predators.

    Pascale Lubbe currently receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

    Michael Knapp has received funding from The Royal Society of New Zealand (Rutherford Discovery Fellowship).

    Nic Rawlence receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

    – ref. Loss of forests brought new birds to NZ during the last Ice Age – we’re witnessing a similar process now – https://theconversation.com/loss-of-forests-brought-new-birds-to-nz-during-the-last-ice-age-were-witnessing-a-similar-process-now-248523

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Having dense breasts is linked to cancer. But advice about breast density can depend on where you live

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer Stone, Principal Research Fellow, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia

    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    Having dense breasts is a clear risk factor for breast cancer. It can also make cancers hard to spot on mammograms.

    Yet you might not be aware you have dense breasts, even after mammographic screening.

    In Australia, advice for women with dense breasts and their health-care professionals can be inconsistent and confusing.

    This is because there’s not currently consensus on whether women who have dense breasts, but no symptoms, benefit from further imaging such as ultrasounds. Concerns include potential cost of these tests and the risk they can produce false positives.

    What is breast density?

    Breasts are made up of fatty tissue and fibroglandular tissue (including glands that make milk, held together by fibrous tissue).

    On a mammogram – an x-ray of the breast – fibroglandular tissue appears white and fatty tissue appears dark. The white areas are referred to as breast density.

    Fibroglandular tissue shows up white on a mammogram.
    Nata Sokhrannova/Shutterstock

    A higher proportion of fibroglandular tissue means your breasts are dense.

    There are four categories to classify breast density:

    • A: almost entirely fatty
    • B: scattered areas of fibroglandular density
    • C: heterogeneously or consistently dense
    • D: extremely dense.

    Breast density is very common. Around 40% of women aged 40–74 are estimated to have “dense breasts”, meaning they fall in category C or D.

    What’s the link to cancer?

    Breast density is associated with the risk of breast cancer in two ways.

    First, breast density usually decreases with age. But if a woman has high breast density for her age, it increases her likelihood of breast cancer.

    One study looked at the risk of breast cancer over the age of 50. It found there was a 6.2% risk for the one-third of women with the lowest density. For the 5% with the highest density, the risk was 14.7%.

    Second, breast density “masks” cancers if they develop. Both cancers and breast density appear white on a mammogram, making cancers very hard to see.

    Breast cancer screening saves lives through early detection and improved treatment options. But we don’t yet know if telling women about their breast density leads to earlier cancer detection, or lives saved.

    In Australia, screening mammography is free for all women* aged 40 and older. This is run through BreastScreen Australia, a joint national, state and territory initiative. Those aged 50-74 are invited to have a mammogram, but it’s available for free without a referral from age 40.

    However, the messages Australian women currently receive about breast density – and whether it’s recorded – depends on where they live.

    What does the advice say?

    In 2023, the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists updated its position statement to recommend breast density is recorded during screening and diagnostic tests in Australia and New Zealand.

    Meanwhile BreastScreen Australia says it “should not routinely record breast density or provide supplemental testing for women with dense breasts”. However this position statement is from 2020 and is currently under review.

    Some state and territory BreastScreen programs, including in Western Australia, South Australia and soon Victoria, notify women if they have dense breasts. Victoria is currently at an early stage of its roll-out.

    While the messaging regarding breast density differs by state, none currently recommend further imaging for women with dense breasts without speaking to a doctor about individual risk.

    What are the issues?

    Providing recommendations for women with dense breasts is difficult.

    The European Society of Breast Imaging recommends women with extremely dense breasts aged 50–70 receive an MRI every two to four years, in addition to screening mammography. This is based on a large randomised controlled trial from the Netherlands.

    But the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists describes this recommendation as “aspirational”, acknowledging cost, staffing and accessibility as challenges.

    That is, it is not feasible to provide a supplemental MRI for everyone in the screening population in category D with extremely dense breasts (around 10%).

    Further, there is no consensus on appropriate screening recommendations for women in the category C (heterogeneous density).

    We need a national approach to breast density reporting in Australia and to do better at identifying who is most likely to benefit from further testing.

    BreastScreen Australia is currently undergoing a review of its policy and funding.

    One of its goals is to enable a nationally consistent approach to breast screening practices. Hopefully breast density reporting, including funding to support national implementation, will be a priority.

    *This includes those recorded female at birth and who are gender diverse.

    Jennifer Stone receives funding from Cancer Council Western Australia and the NHMRC. She is affiliated with the University of Western Australia and the University of Melbourne. She is Co-chair of the Australian Breast Density Consumer Advisory Council and member of the InforMD Alliance (www.informd.org.au).

    – ref. Having dense breasts is linked to cancer. But advice about breast density can depend on where you live – https://theconversation.com/having-dense-breasts-is-linked-to-cancer-but-advice-about-breast-density-can-depend-on-where-you-live-249863

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NACC belatedly to investigate whether six Robodebt referrals engaged in ‘corrupt conduct’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The National Anti-Corruption Commission will finally investigate whether six people referred to it by the royal commission into Robodebt engaged in corrupt conduct.

    This follows an independent reconsideration by former High Court judge Geoffrey Nettle, who examined the NACC”s original decision not to pursue the referrals.

    That decision was highly controversial, bringing a plethora of complaints, and sharp criticism of NACC chief Paul Brereton.

    The NACC’s inspector, Gail Furness, found Brereton had not adequately excused himself when the matter was considered. Brereton had delegated the decision-making because he knew one of the people referred professionally, but the inspector found he was still involved in the process.

    In its Tuesday statement the NACC said:“The purpose of the investigation is to determine whether or not any of the 6 referred persons engaged in corrupt conduct”.

    The names of those referred to the NACC – contained in a sealed section of the royal commission report – were not made public. The sealed section has not been released.

    The NACC statement said: “Consistent with its usual practice, the Commission does not publish reasons for commencing an investigation, as doing so may prejudice the investigations, disclose information which the Commission is required by law to keep confidential, compromise investigative pathways and/or unfairly impact reputations and rights of individuals to impartial adjudication.”

    The NACC stressed its arrangements would ensure the investigation was “impartial and fair”. Brereton and those deputy commissioners involved in the original decision not to investigate the referrals won’t be part of the investigation.

    Robodebt used a flawed system of income averaging to determine debts. The scheme, later found to be illegal, raised $1.76 billion from hundreds of thousands of welfare recipients. But many of the debts were wrong, and eventually the money had to be repaid.

    In its findings, the royal commission targeted multiple public officials including ministers who had overseen the scheme (one of them Scott Morrison who as social services minister had been an initiator of it) and public servants.

    A number of the bureaucrats who’d been involved with the scheme, including two who had been departmental heads, were later found to have breached the public service code of conduct.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NACC belatedly to investigate whether six Robodebt referrals engaged in ‘corrupt conduct’ – https://theconversation.com/nacc-belatedly-to-investigate-whether-six-robodebt-referrals-engaged-in-corrupt-conduct-250145

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Reserve Bank has cut rates for the first time in four years. But it is cautious about future cuts

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

    The Reserve Bank cut official interest rates on Tuesday, the first decrease in four years, saying inflationary pressures are easing “a little more quickly than expected”.

    However, the central bank said the outlook for economic activity and inflation remains uncertain, with a risk that household spending may be slower than expected.

    The reduction in the cash rate target will come as a relief to the one-third of households with a mortgage. It will help to ease the cost of living crisis for them.

    The cut from a 13-year high of 4.35% to 4.1% had been widely expected by economists and financial markets.

    The interest rate cut may help tip the scales for the government to call an early election. But recent opinion polls suggest the government still has work to do to put itself in a winning position.

    Announcing its decision, the Reserve Bank said it had “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the midpoint of the 2-3% target”.

    All four of the major banks swiftly passed on the cut in official rates to mortgage-holders. The average new housing loan is $666,000. Reducing the interest rate on this by 0.25% will mean $110 less a month in repayments (assuming a standard 30-year loan).

    It is the first change in the cash rate since November 2023 and marks the first small reversal of 13 rate increases. The central bank had hiked interest rates quickly from the near-zero emergency level during the COVID epidemic and lockdowns.

    Why did the Reserve Bank cut now?

    The interest rate cut comes after headline inflation eased, to 2.4% during 2024, within the Bank’s 2-3% inflation target range.

    However, the Bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, the “trimmed mean”, which excludes temporary factors such as the government’s electricity rebates, rose by 3.2% during 2024. This is just above the target range but a little less than the 3.4% the Bank had been forecasting.

    “We cannot declare victory on inflation just yet,” Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock told a press conference after the decision. “It’s not good enough for it to be back in the target range temporarily, the board needs to be confident it’s returning to the target range sustainably.”



    Read more:
    Lower inflation in the December quarter boosts chances of an interest rate cut

    The RBA and the election

    In its first meeting for the year, the Reserve Bank board rejected the notion that they should hold off changing rates because an election is approaching.

    While cutting interest rates will suit one side of politics, not cutting would have benefited the other. The impartial approach is to take the same decision as if no election were looming.

    As then RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in 2007 after raising rates during an election campaign:

    I do not think we ever could accept the idea that in an election year — which, after all, is one year out of three — you cannot change interest rates.

    How does the Reserve Bank compare with other central banks?

    Some central banks in comparable economies had already started lowering interest rates and have cut them by more than the RBA. But that is because most had raised interest rates by more.

    The Reserve Bank adopted a strategy of being more patient in returning inflation to its target, so as to limit the increase in unemployment.

    The strategy has worked. Unemployment in Australia peaked at 4.2% and is now 4.0%. By contrast, in New Zealand it is over 5% and in the euro area and Canada it is over 6%.

    The Reserve Bank hasn’t received the credit it deserves for this strong performance.

    Where to from here?

    This is the last meeting of the current Reserve Bank board. It is being replaced by a new monetary policy committee, and a separate governance board as part of an overhaul of the bank. Two new members will replace two members of the current board for its next meeting on April 1.

    The RBA board’s statement said that it “remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing”. This is central bank-speak for not rushing into further interest rate cuts.

    The RBA also noted that “geopolitical and policy uncertainties are pronounced”. This is a reference to the economic fallout from United States President Donald Trump’s policies on trade and slashing jobs.

    His proposed tariffs and deportations will increase inflation in the US and make US interest rates higher than they otherwise would be.



    Read more:
    What would a second Trump presidency mean for the global economy?

    But this does not mean interest rates need to be higher here. Indeed, a trade war would weaken the global economy, which could lead to less inflation in Australia.

    The Reserve Bank also released its updated forecasts. These show the underlying inflation rate dropping to 2.7% by June and then staying around there through 2026 and 2027.

    Unemployment is low at 4%, and below what the Bank has previously regarded as “full employment”. But it is not leading to any surge in wage growth.

    Indeed, the Bank commented that wages growth has been a little lower than it had forecast. Inflationary expectations are also well contained.

    This offers hope there may be at least one further interest rate cut later this year (and the Reserve Bank’s forecasts assume this). But borrowers should not get their hopes up that interest rates will revisit the COVID-era lows. That is very unlikely.

    John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist at the Reserve Bank.

    – ref. The Reserve Bank has cut rates for the first time in four years. But it is cautious about future cuts – https://theconversation.com/the-reserve-bank-has-cut-rates-for-the-first-time-in-four-years-but-it-is-cautious-about-future-cuts-249704

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from the Hill: will Albanese opt for an April election now a rate cut has him breathing more easily?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Reserve Bank has delivered the expected modest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point, and we’re set for the predictable frenzy of speculation about an April election.

    The cut is unlikely to be a major vote changer, after 13 increases. But it was absolutely vital to the government. Labor would have suffered a big knock if Michele Bullock and her board had held out.

    The cut underpins the narrative of things improving, and may put voters in a better mood. At least that’s the government’s thinking.

    But the bank is highly circumspect in its tone. It warned in its statement:

    The forecasts published today suggest that, if monetary policy is eased too much too soon, disinflation could stall, and inflation would settle above the midpoint of the target range. In removing a little of the policy restrictiveness in its decision today, the Board acknowledges that progress has been made but is cautious about the outlook.

    Speculation about the election date is a frustrating exercise, given only Anthony Albanese – and perhaps a few closest to him – knows his thinking, which could still be, as he suggested recently, “fluid”. In recent days the PM has played the tease. Periodically he talks about the intense work on budget, set for March 25; if that went ahead, it would mean a May election. But last week, he was also talking about parliament having seen its last day, which pointed to April.

    It is hard to see the logic of Albanese launching a campaign before the March 8 Western Australian election, given that would be confusing for both state and federal campaigns and put maximum pressure on Labor’s WA volunteers. If Albanese opts for April 12, he would have to call it immediately after the WA poll.

    Many in the business world would like the election done and dusted ASAP, because the pre-election period means a hiatus of sorts.

    The opinion polls can be read various ways, but as things stand, they point to a minority government.

    This is already putting pressure on crossbenchers, notably the teals, to indicate what factors they’d take into account in deciding who they’d support. The Coalition, if it reached about 72 seats (76 is a majority), would be eyeing off crossbenchers Bob Katter, Rebekha Sharkie, Allegra Spender and Dai Le as potentials to guarantee them confidence and supply. Of course that would assume they all were re-elected.

    But this is putting several carts before the horse. Much will happen in the next few weeks, whether the election is April or May. Current polls that make predictions down to individual seats should be treated with much caution.

    While the polls are presently depressing for Labor, this week’s Newspoll had a finding on inflation that might cheer treasurer Jim Chalmers. It found that less than a quarter of people believe inflation would have been lower under a Coalition government. In other words, while high prices are making voters sour, that is not necessarily directly translating into blame for Labor.

    When the campaign proper is underway, the smallest things can blow up in leaders’ faces.

    Albanese failed to remember key numbers in 2022. He had enough fat so his generally lackluster performance didn’t matter in the end. Dutton is yet to be campaign-tested. Rather disconcertingly for his handlers, in his Sky interview last Sunday he forgot deputy prime minister Richard Marles had just been in Washington.

    Meanwhile Dutton is hard at work humanising his image in a series of interviews, and the obligatory 60 Minutes family get together with Karl Stefanovic (who did the Meet the Morrisons – the Duttons-at-home came without an musical performance).

    Albanese worked hard at this before the last election, repeating over and over his story of being brought up in council housing, son of a single mother.

    Dutton’s more complicated back story involves a stint as a youngster in a butcher’s shop, buying a house at 19, an early divorce, and a failed relationship that produced a baby who became his first child in his second marriage. And of course his career as a policeman.

    One can imagine that some of these memories are painful to have to canvas in public, but the campaign’s hard heads say the public want to know all about a potential PM. So it has to be done.

    (One Dutton incident is rarely recalled these days, that involved a temporary loss of political nerve. In 2009, after a redistribution made his seat of Dickson notionally Labor, Dutton sought to jump to the Gold Coast seat of McPherson. But he was beaten in a preselection by Karen Andrews, who is retiring at this election. That forced him back to Dickson, which he then held at the 2010 election.)

    Albanese does not need to canvass his backstory as much these days but he took advantage of Valentine’s day to put out some sentimental social media fodder.

    He and fiancé Jodie (to whom he proposed on Valentine’s day last year) sat, with Toto between them, turning over cards with questions said to be posed by the public. With each question (such as “who said I love you first”) they pointed to each other or themselves.

    Opinion was divided about the video. Toto fell into the sceptics’ camp, jumping to the ground before it was finished.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from the Hill: will Albanese opt for an April election now a rate cut has him breathing more easily? – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-will-albanese-opt-for-an-april-election-now-a-rate-cut-has-him-breathing-more-easily-250136

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s view of the world is becoming clear: America’s interests matter more than any set of rules

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

    Last week in Europe, the United States sent some very strong messages it is prepared to upend the established global order.

    US Vice President JD Vance warned a stunned Munich Security Conference that Europe has an “enemy within”, referring to leaders who ignore their citizens’ concerns and values. He also advocated for right-wing political groups to be brought into the mainstream.

    Meanwhile, at a meeting of NATO defence ministers, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth talked about hard power, the warrior ethos and the need for NATO members to spend up to 5% of their GDPs on defence. Most have only just climbed to about 2%, the longstanding NATO guideline.

    In Poland, he reaffirmed the US commitment to the defence of Poland (and NATO) and committed to bolstering the US military presence there. So, despite the mixed messaging, the United States is not leaving Europe anytime soon.

    Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is reportedly demanding a significant levy from Ukraine as payback for US protection and support.

    The combination of remarks has left pundits and policymakers wondering – is the US-led international order, with its multilateral institutions, nearing its end?

    The demise of the rules-based order?

    The United States played a leading role in establishing the rules-based international order from the ashes of the second world war.

    Critics have decried the UN-related institutions that arose at this time. But the rules-based order is perhaps best viewed as Voltaire saw the Holy Roman Empire: “no way holy, nor Roman, nor an empire”. Those proclaiming the demise of the rules-based order should be careful what they wish for.

    Such a system of trusted international exchanges barely existed prior to 1945. And while superpowers have carved out many exceptions for themselves, the rules-based order has nonetheless resulted in a time of remarkable stability and prosperity for the world.

    So, why would the United States now appear to be retreating from this arrangement? The declining centrality of US influence goes some way to explain this.

    China’s rise and the rise of Trump

    To place the current events in proper context, we need to go back 25 years, when China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

    This move was supported by and facilitated by then US President Bill Clinton in a belief that market liberalisation would eventually lead to political liberalisation.

    Since then, China’s growth has skyrocketed thanks to its ready access to global markets. But it’s retained a strong mercantilist approach, counter to the spirit of the WTO. This has generated much resentment and nervousness among Western powers about the changing global power balance.

    Since Xi Jinping’s rise to power in 2012, in particular, China has taken on an adversarial position to the rules-based order, following its own set of rules.

    In effect, the world got neither the political nor the trade liberalisation that it once sought from China. Rather, the rules as they applied in China (and to an extent in Russia) allowed state-owned enterprises to co-opt – if not outright steal – technology shared by their international industry partners.

    Foreign companies were squeezed out of China and had difficulty competing with lower-priced Chinese products at home.

    Trump’s rise is, in part, a reaction to these developments. During his first term from 2017–20, Trump fitfully attempted to take a retaliatory, transactional approach to international relations. Now, as he begins his second term, he has a much more clear-eyed plan of action.

    What Trump expects now

    What became startlingly clear at the Munich Security Conference was Trump’s new vision of transactional alliances with America’s traditional partners.

    In his view, the United States is not so much retreating into isolationism as much as it’s acting as a great power with its own economic interests at heart. Trump is eager for the US to assert its place in a world where spheres of influence matter as much – if not more – than any particular set of rules.

    Evidently, the US is no longer advocating for multilateralism, in which states cooperate as equals. Now, it’s focused more on multi-polarity – a world with several great powers, in which the US puts its own interests first. As Trump frequently reminds us, “America First”.

    According to this world view, allies and adversaries have equally been taking unfair advantage of:

    • America’s famous openness (notably its borders)
    • its liberal trade policies (which, according to Trump, has led to the de-industrialisation of the American heartland).

    Its allies have also taken advantage of the generosity of its security umbrella, leading to their cavalier approach to security.

    The Trump administration’s remedy to all of this involves doling out sanctimonious advice. An example of this: Vance telling European allies they should unwind their relaxed immigration policies.

    JD Vance’s speech to the Munich Security Conference.

    It’s also doling out some tough medicine, apparently trying to provoke a reaction in European capitals so they significantly increase their defence spending. This would enable the US to step back from being Europe’s security guarantor and finally undertake its long-talked-about pivot to Asia and focus on its main adversary: China.

    Russia evidently features as part of this plan. Trump appears intent to try to cleave Russia from its Chinese embrace in order to either isolate or weaken China. A hard-nosed deal with Russia over Ukraine may well be the price he’s willing to pay to make that happen.

    For America’s close security and economic partners, this presents an unprecedented challenge. The old preconceptions and expectations no longer seem to apply. What’s important now is not so much America’s shared values with Europe, it’s their overlapping interests.

    For America’s allies, as well as its adversaries, this is going to require some hard thinking and new strategies, both economically and militarily.

    John Blaxland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s view of the world is becoming clear: America’s interests matter more than any set of rules – https://theconversation.com/trumps-view-of-the-world-is-becoming-clear-americas-interests-matter-more-than-any-set-of-rules-250144

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is divestiture and how would it stop insurance companies ‘ripping off’ customers?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Allan Fels, Professor Allan Fels, Professor of Law, Economics and Business at the University of Melbourne and Monash University., The University of Melbourne

    Australia is creeping towards adding a divestiture power to its Competition and Consumer Act.

    Under such a law, the courts, on the recommendation of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, could break a firm into parts.

    Divestiture is currently used in Australia when the competition and consumer commission considers proposed mergers. Often it will only approve a merger when certain parts of the business are broken up to prevent monopolies.

    It has also been used to deal with abuse of market power by electricity providers.

    Under the proposed change, a company with substantial market power which breaches the Consumer and Competition Act may be forced to divest assets to restore balance and ensure the market is competitive. This would reduce the possibility of consumers being over-charged.

    The Coalition has already proposed breaking up the major supermarkets, Coles and Woolworths which have been long-accused of price gouging customers.

    On Sunday, Coalition leader Peter Dutton signalled he was likely to introduce divestiture if elected to stop insurers from “ripping off” customers by charging exorbitant premiums or refusing to pay claims.

    Premiums have soared by 16.4% in the last year as Australia has been hit by major floods and bushfires. Climate Valuation analysts last month warned one in ten properties could be uninsurable by 2035.

    Repeating his position on Monday, Dutton said:

    If we have a situation where people are being priced out of insurance or they’re deemed an uninsurable risk when they shouldn’t be, that is a failure of the market and we’ll respond accordingly to that.

    He said insurance companies had to be responsible corporate citizens and work with their customers.

    We’re not going to have a situation where people can’t afford insurance or they’re being priced out of products.

    Previously the Morrison government enacted laws which enabled a breakup of energy companies in certain circumstances.

    Labor has not supported a divestiture power. One reason is the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association has opposed such measures.

    The case for divestiture

    In principle there is a strong case for a divestiture law.

    Monopolies and market power stem from an industry being highly concentrated. Often the only way to prevent them from misusing their monopoly is to break them up. The solution could be left to the market or to price regulation or other remedies but these do not address the source of the problem.

    A divestiture power has long existed in the United States. It was used to break up oil, cigarettes, and chemicals in the early days of antitrust law. In the mid-80s it was successfully used to break up the AT&T telephone monopoly. AT&T controlled both long distance and local calls before it was broken up.

    But divestiture is only occasionally used and only when stringent criteria are satisfied.

    Some 20 years ago the US Department of Justice proposed a breakup of Microsoft – the case was never finalised because of procedural problems. However, the Federal Court laid out many prerequisites before this drastic remedy could occur.

    The power has been used in a number of other OECD countries including the United Kingdom.

    When divesting is necessary

    There has been heavy use in Australia of divestiture powers to break up gas and electricity monopolies in the last 30 years

    And there is a strong case for making it a general remedy available for all industries, even though its use would be infrequent.

    Importantly, the availability of this sanction would provide an incentive for firms to comply with abuse of market power provisions of the competition law. These provisions are intended to stop powerful businesses from deterring competition by making it difficult for new entrants to join the market.

    The sanctions for this part of the law currently are very weak. Fines are rarely imposed and if they are, they are small and seen as a cost of doing business to be weighed up against the benefits of anti-competitive behaviour.

    Another reason is that cases take many years. For example, the ACCC case v Safeway 19 years ago took seven years before a court resolution.

    A divestiture power would make firms far more careful before breaching the law.

    Too ‘Russian’?

    Occasionally people question the desirability of this power on the grounds it is the sort of thing you would only see in a country like Russia.

    In an ABC interview last February, Prime Minister Albanese said:

    We have a private sector economy in Australia and not a command and control economy […]We’re not the old Soviet Union. What we have the power to do is to encourage competition and encouraging new entrants.

    However, most observers agree one of the big failures of the Soviet economy has been failure to divest monopolies in energy, transport and other parts of the economy.

    The Coalition’s adoption of a divestiture remedy in three industries is welcome. We need at some point to move to a divestiture power that is available for the whole economy.

    Allan Fels is a former chair of the ACCC.

    – ref. What is divestiture and how would it stop insurance companies ‘ripping off’ customers? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-divestiture-and-how-would-it-stop-insurance-companies-ripping-off-customers-250036

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from the Hill: will Albanese opt for an April election now that a rates cut has him breathing more easily?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Reserve Bank has delivered the expected modest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point, and we’re set for the predictable frenzy of speculation about an April election.

    The cut is unlikely to be a major vote changer, after 13 increases. But it was absolutely vital to the government. Labor would have suffered a big knock if Michele Bullock and her board had held out.

    The cut underpins the narrative of things improving, and may put voters in a better mood. At least that’s the government’s thinking.

    But the bank is highly circumspect in its tone. It warned in its statement:

    The forecasts published today suggest that, if monetary policy is eased too much too soon, disinflation could stall, and inflation would settle above the midpoint of the target range. In removing a little of the policy restrictiveness in its decision today, the Board acknowledges that progress has been made but is cautious about the outlook.

    Speculation about the election date is a frustrating exercise, given only Anthony Albanese – and perhaps a few closest to him – knows his thinking, which could still be, as he suggested recently, “fluid”. In recent days the PM has played the tease. Periodically he talks about the intense work on budget, set for March 25; if that went ahead, it would mean a May election. But last week, he was also talking about parliament having seen its last day, which pointed to April.

    It is hard to see the logic of Albanese launching a campaign before the March 8 Western Australian election, given that would be confusing for both state and federal campaigns and put maximum pressure on Labor’s WA volunteers. If Albanese opts for April 12, he would have to call it immediately after the WA poll.

    Many in the business world would like the election done and dusted ASAP, because the pre-election period means a hiatus of sorts.

    The opinion polls can be read various ways, but as things stand, they point to a minority government.

    This is already putting pressure on crossbenchers, notably the teals, to indicate what factors they’d take into account in deciding who they’d support. The Coalition, if it reached about 72 seats (76 is a majority), would be eyeing off crossbenchers Bob Katter, Rebekha Sharkie, Allegra Spender and Dai Le as potentials to guarantee them confidence and supply. Of course that would assume they all were re-elected.

    But this is putting several carts before the horse. Much will happen in the next few weeks, whether the election is April or May. Current polls that make predictions down to individual seats should be treated with much caution.

    While the polls are presently depressing for Labor, this week’s Newspoll had a finding on inflation that might cheer treasurer Jim Chalmers. It found that less than a quarter of people believe inflation would have been lower under a Coalition government. In other words, while high prices are making voters sour, that is not necessarily directly translating into blame for Labor.

    When the campaign proper is underway, the smallest things can blow up in leaders’ faces.

    Albanese failed to remember key numbers in 2022. He had enough fat so his generally lackluster performance didn’t matter in the end. Dutton is yet to be campaign-tested. Rather disconcertingly for his handlers, in his Sky interview last Sunday he forgot deputy prime minister Richard Marles had just been in Washington.

    Meanwhile Dutton is hard at work humanising his image in a series of interviews, and the obligatory 60 Minutes family get together with Karl Stefanovic (who did the Meet the Morrisons – the Duttons-at-home came without an musical performance).

    Albanese worked hard at this before the last election, repeating over and over his story of being brought up in council housing, son of a single mother.

    Dutton’s more complicated back story involves a stint as a youngster in a butcher’s shop, buying a house at 19, an early divorce, and a failed relationship that produced a baby who became his first child in his second marriage. And of course his career as a policeman.

    One can imagine that some of these memories are painful to have to canvas in public, but the campaign’s hard heads say the public want to know all about a potential PM. So it has to be done.

    (One Dutton incident is rarely recalled these days, that involved a temporary loss of political nerve. In 2009, after a redistribution made his seat of Dickson notionally Labor, Dutton sought to jump to the Gold Coast seat of McPherson. But he was beaten in a preselection by Karen Andrews, who is retiring at this election. That forced him back to Dickson, which he then held at the 2010 election.)

    Albanese does not need to canvass his backstory as much these days but he took advantage of Valentine’s day to put out some sentimental social media fodder.

    He and fiancé Jodie (to whom he proposed on Valentine’s day last year) sat, with Toto between them, turning over cards. with questions said to be posed by the public. With each question (such as “who said I love you first”) they pointed to each other or themselves.

    Opinion was divided about the video. Toto fell into the sceptics’ camp, jumping to the ground before it was finished.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from the Hill: will Albanese opt for an April election now that a rates cut has him breathing more easily? – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-will-albanese-opt-for-an-april-election-now-that-a-rates-cut-has-him-breathing-more-easily-250136

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ukraine isn’t invited to its own peace talks. History is full of such examples – and the results are devastating

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Fitzpatrick, Professor in International History, Flinders University

    (From left to right): Neville Chamberlain, Édouard Daladier, Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, and Italian Foreign Minister Galeazzo Ciano before signing the Munich Agreement, which gave the Sudetenland to Germany. German Federal Archives/Wikimedia Commons

    Ukraine has not been invited to a key meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia this week to decide what peace in the country might look like.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will “never accept” any decisions in talks without its participation to end Russia’s three-year war in the country.

    A decision to negotiate the sovereignty of Ukrainians without them – as well as US President Donald Trump’s blatantly extortionate attempt to claim half of Ukraine’s rare mineral wealth as the price for ongoing US support – reveals a lot about how Trump sees Ukraine and Europe.

    But this is not the first time large powers have colluded to negotiate new borders or spheres of influence without the input of the people who live there.

    Such high-handed power politics rarely ends well for those affected, as these seven historical examples show.

    1. The Scramble for Africa

    In the winter of 1884–85, German leader Otto von Bismarck invited the powers of Europe to Berlin for a conference to formalise the division of the entire African continent among them. Not a single African was present at the conference that would come to be known as “The Scramble for Africa”.

    Among other things, the conference led to the creation of the Congo Free State under Belgian control, the site of colonial atrocities that killed millions.

    Germany also established the colony of German South West Africa (present-day Namibia), where the first genocide of the 20th century was later perpetrated against its colonised peoples.

    How the boundaries of Africa changed after the Berlin conference.
    Wikimedia Commons/Somebody500

    2. The Tripartite Convention

    It wasn’t just Africa that was divided up this way. In 1899, Germany and the United States held a conference and forced an agreement on the Samoans to split their islands between the two powers.

    This was despite the Samoans expressing a desire for either self-rule or a confederation of Pacific states with Hawai’i.

    As “compensation” for missing out in Samoa, Britain received uncontested primacy over Tonga.

    German Samoa came under the rule of New Zealand after the first world war and remained a territory until 1962. American Samoa (in addition to several other Pacific islands) remain US territories to this day.

    3. The Sykes-Picot Agreement

    As the first world war was well under way, British and French representatives sat down to agree how they’d divide up the Ottoman Empire after it was over. As an enemy power, the Ottomans were not invited to the talks.

    Together, England’s Mark Sykes and France’s François Georges-Picot redrew the Middle East’s borders in line with their nations’ interests.

    The Sykes-Picot Agreement ran counter to commitments made in a series of letters known as the Hussein-McMahon correspondence. In these letters, Britain promised to support Arab independence from Turkish rule.



    Read more:
    What was the Sykes-Picot agreement, and why does it still affect the Middle East today?

    The Sykes-Picot Agreement also ran counter to promises Britain made in the Balfour Declaration to back Zionists who wanted to build a new Jewish homeland in Ottoman Palestine.

    The agreement became the wellspring of decades of conflict and colonial misrule in the Middle East, the consequences of which continue to be felt today.

    Map showing the areas of control and influence in the Middle East agreed upon between the British and French.
    The National Archives (UK)/Wikimedia Commons

    4. The Munich Agreement

    In September 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier met with Italy’s fascist dictator, Benito Mussolini, and Germany’s Adolf Hitler to sign what became known as the Munich Agreement.

    The leaders sought to prevent the spread of war throughout Europe after Hitler’s Nazis had fomented an uprising and began attacking the German-speaking areas of Czechoslovakia known as the Sudetenland. They did this under the pretext of protecting German minorities. No Czechoslovakians were invited to the meeting.

    The meeting is still seen by many as the “Munich Betrayal” – a classic example of a failed appeasement of a belligerent power in the false hope of staving off war.

    5. The Évian Conference

    In 1938, 32 countries met in Évian-les-Bains, France, to decide how to deal with Jewish refugees fleeing persecution in Nazi Germany.

    Before the conference started, Britain and the US had agreed not to put pressure on one another to lift the quota of Jews they would accept in either the US or British Palestine.

    While Golda Meir (the future Israeli leader) attended the conference as an observer, neither she nor any other representatives of the Jewish people were permitted to take part in the negotiations.

    The attendees largely failed to come to an agreement on accepting Jewish refugees, with the exception of the Dominican Republic. And most Jews in Germany were unable to leave before Nazism reached its genocidal nadir in the Holocaust.

    6. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact

    As Hitler planned his invasion of Eastern Europe, it became clear his major stumbling block was the Soviet Union. His answer was to sign a disingenuous non-aggression treaty with the USSR.

    Joseph Stalin and Joachim von Ribbentrop after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
    German Federal Archives/Wikimedia Commons

    The treaty, named after Vyacheslav Molotov and Joachim von Ribbentrop (the Soviet and German foreign ministers), ensured the Soviet Union would not respond when Hitler invaded Poland. It also carved up Europe into Nazi and Soviet spheres. This allowed the Soviets to expand into Romania and the Baltic states, attack Finland and take its own share of Polish territory.

    Unsurprisingly, some in Eastern Europe view the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine’s future as a revival of this kind of secret diplomacy that divided the smaller nations of Europe between large powers in the second world war.

    7. The Yalta Conference

    With the defeat of Nazi Germany imminent, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, Soviet dictator Josef Stalin and US President Franklin D Roosevelt met in 1945 to decide the fate of postwar Europe. This meeting came to be known as the Yalta Conference.

    Alongside the Potsdam Conference several months later, Yalta created the political architecture that would lead to the Cold War division of Europe.

    At Yalta, the “big three” decided on the division of Germany, while Stalin was also offered a sphere of interest in Eastern Europe.

    This took the form of a series of politically controlled buffer states in Eastern Europe, a model some believe Putin is aiming to emulate today in eastern and southeastern Europe.

    Matt Fitzpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with the History Council of South Australia.

    – ref. Ukraine isn’t invited to its own peace talks. History is full of such examples – and the results are devastating – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-isnt-invited-to-its-own-peace-talks-history-is-full-of-such-examples-and-the-results-are-devastating-250049

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia is deporting 3 non-citizens from the ‘NZYQ’ group to Nauru. What could it do instead?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mary Anne Kenny, Associate Professor, School of Law, Murdoch University

    Australia’s minister for home affairs announced on Sunday that the federal government has struck a deal with Nauru to “resettle” three non-citizens from what’s come to be known as the “NZYQ cohort”.

    The NZYQ cohort is a group of people released from long-term immigration detention after the High Court’s NZYQ 2023 decision.

    The court found their ongoing detention was unconstitutional where there was no reasonable prospect of removing them to another country. This led to the release of over 200 people from detention, the majority of whom had previously had visas cancelled on character grounds or had committed crimes.

    This new deal with Nauru has significant implications.

    What happened on the weekend?

    According to the home affairs minister, three people from the NZYQ group have now been granted 30-year visas by Nauru, and will soon be removed to that country.

    The minister said all three have criminal histories. One has been convicted of murder.

    Nauru may accept more people from the NZYQ cohort, referring to these people as “the first three”. The minister says he expects a legal challenge to their removal.



    Read more:
    High Court reasons on immigration ruling pave way for further legislation

    Why it is this development significant?

    Once a non-citizen has had their visa cancelled on criminal grounds, they are often deported to their country of origin after serving their prison sentence.

    However, the individuals in the NZYQ group cannot be returned to their country of origin. That could be because international law prevents Australia returning them to places where they may face harm (a principle known as “non-refoulement”).

    Or, they may have no recognised nationality and no country to accept them.

    This raises the question of what should be done with them after they complete their prison sentence.

    Up until the decision in NZYQ, people in this situation were simply kept in immigration detention. It was often almost impossible to get another country to accept them.

    The Australian government tried to get many other countries to accept the man at the centre of the NZYQ case. This person, a stateless Rohingnya man given the pseudonym NZYQ, had been convicted of a serious crime.

    The High Court noted no country had a standard practice of resettling people in situations such as this. It noted the immigration department had never successfully transferred such a person to a third country (in other words, to a place that was not Australia, and not their country of origin).

    The Nauru deal announced on the weekend is an important development, in part because it is the first significant use of new migration laws rushed through late last year.

    What do the new migration laws allow?

    These laws aimed to respond to concerns around the NZYQ cohort being released into the community.

    The new laws allow the government to transfer non-citizens to third countries, in this case Nauru, under “third country reception arrangements.”

    The details of these agreements are left entirely to the discretion of government. The laws grant broad powers to remove people and provide payments to those third countries.

    People who may be removed to a third country include those in the NZYQ group who, since the High Court decision, have been living in the community on bridging visas.

    The new laws allow the government to transfer non-citizens to third countries, in this case Nauru.
    Robert Szymanski/Shutterstock

    Why are some concerned?

    A major issue is the uncertainty surrounding the rights and support of individuals sent to Nauru.

    It’s unclear how or whether these people will be able to get housing and access to work, or how they might be treated in a country with high unemployment. Some may have family members in Australia and may be separated indefinitely from them.

    The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has raised significant concerns around what it calls “externalisation” of international protection obligations without adequate protection safeguards or standards of treatment.

    Externalisation, it says, can lead to

    indefinite “warehousing” of asylum-seekers in isolated places, exposing them to indirect refoulement and other dangers.

    The UN Human Rights Committee has also said that outsourcing operations to another country did not absolve Australia of accountability and its human rights obligations.

    A possible precedent

    A final concern is the precedent this agreement with Nauru sets for how other countries may treat refugees with criminal convictions.

    Australia’s model of offshore processing has already been used as a reference by other countries, including the UK.

    With the growing international debate about managing refugees with criminal convictions, this arrangement may end up being replicated elsewhere.

    The lack of safeguards for people in third countries, such as Nauru, could mean refugees and asylum seekers are transferred without proper protection, exposing them to further harm.

    How do other countries handle cases like this?

    It is not uncommon for countries to send criminal deportees to their home countries. But in situations where people are stateless or cannot be sent home due to a fear of serious harm, countries either have to allow the person to remain or seek an alternative country to send them to.

    However, it remains very hard for countries to convince other countries to accept people who have criminal convictions.

    Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to prepare a detention facility at Guantanamo Bay in order to hold up to 30,000 “high-priority criminal aliens unlawfully present in the United States”.

    Exact details of the arrangement remain unclear and the plan has been criticised by a range of human rights groups and legal organisations.

    What are the alternatives to Australia’s Nauru plan?

    Other countries have established systems for managing non-citizens who are not entitled to protection or whose visas have been revoked due to criminal offences, ensuring they are not detained indefinitely.

    After completing their prison sentences, these individuals are typically released into the community, where domestic law enforcement handles any further offending.

    Neglecting to address offending behaviour or rehabilitation within the Australian system – whether during imprisonment, detention, or in the community – and then deporting individuals to developing countries doesn’t really solve the problem.

    It simply means we are externalising the problem to a poorer country.

    Mary Anne Kenny has received funding from the ARC. She is a member of the Migration Institute of Australia and the Law Council of Australia and an affiliate of the UNSW Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law. She previously was an independent advisor to the governments of Australia and Nauru as part of the Joint Advisory Committee on Nauru between 2012 – 2016.

    Lisa van Toor receives funding from Research Training Plan (RTP) scholarship for her PhD. She is currently a PhD student with the UNSW Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law. She previously was a Judge’s Associate in the Supreme Court of Nauru between 2018-2019. Lisa is a member of the Greens WA.

    – ref. Australia is deporting 3 non-citizens from the ‘NZYQ’ group to Nauru. What could it do instead? – https://theconversation.com/australia-is-deporting-3-non-citizens-from-the-nzyq-group-to-nauru-what-could-it-do-instead-250053

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New experiments finally prove a long-forgotten theory about how quantum particles spin

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Arjen Vaartjes, PhD Student, Quantum Physics, UNSW Sydney

    Dmitriy Rybin / Shutterstock

    What makes something quantum? This question has kept a small but dedicated fraction of the world’s population – most of them quantum physicists – up at night for decades.

    At very small scales, we know the universe is made up of waves and energy fields ruled by the laws of quantum mechanics, but at the scale of the everyday world around us we mostly see solid objects following the older rules of classical mechanics. When we ask what makes something quantum, we are asking where the line is between these two realms and how it can be drawn.

    In a new study published in Newton, we answer this question in a previously undiscovered way. We show that a single spinning particle can show indubitable evidence of quantum behaviour.

    The discovery of spin

    One hundred years ago, Dutch physicists Samuel Goudsmit and George Uhlenbeck proposed the idea that most tiny particles never really stand still. Instead, they suggested, electrons – elementary particles that form the outer shell of atoms – behave like minuscule spinning tops.

    The spin can be either clockwise or anticlockwise, or what physicists call “spin up” and “spin down”. This binary nature of spinning electrons means that they can be used as building blocks for quantum computers.

    However, in 1925 Goudsmit and Uhlenbeck’s spinning electron proposal caused an uproar in the physics establishment. At this time, physics was shaped by illustrious names such as Albert Einstein, Max Planck and Paul Ehrenfest, who laid the groundwork for the grand theories of relativity and quantum mechanics that transformed our understanding of the universe.

    After eminent physicist and Nobel laureate Hendrik Lorentz criticised the spin theory, Uhlenbeck got cold feet and wanted to retract the paper. Uhlenbeck and Goudsmit’s mentor Ehrenfest told them to persist, writing: “You are both young enough to be able to afford a stupidity!”

    Old ideas still remain

    This kind of resistance to new ideas is not unusual in physics. As Planck put it, science progresses one funeral at a time.

    Much like the scepticism about the discovery of spinning electrons, today many physicists are educated with a misconception about how spin works. Conventional wisdom, still taught in standard textbooks, tells us that spin is a quantum property that is essential to understanding the behaviour of electrons and nuclei. But at the same time, the textbooks say the rotation of the particle is still somehow perfectly described by classical physics.

    Tsirelson’s forgotten protocol

    A similar consideration applies to another textbook system, the harmonic oscillator (e.g. a pendulum). According to a 1927 theorem by Paul Ehrenfest, the way a quantum pendulum swings is indistinguishable from a swing in the park.

    Strikingly, almost 80 years later the Russian-Israeli physicist Boris Tsirelson had an idea showing that it is possible to discern a quantum pendulum from a swing in the park, provided the quantum system is prepared in a truly quantum state. At the time, Tsirelson’s paper attracted little notice.

    Another 15 years later, the research team of Valerio Scarani in Singapore resurfaced Tsirelson’s paper from the depths of the internet. Scarani’s student Zaw Lin Htoo extended Tsirelson’s idea, proving theoretically that it actually was possible to detect quantumness in the rotation of a spin.

    Bigger particles and Schrödinger’s cat

    Our team at the University of New South Wales decided to take on the challenge and prove the quantumness of a spin in a real experiment. However, we couldn’t do it with a simple spin like an electron. Because an electron is so small, it only has two possible spin states: up and down. Again defying widespread intuition, it turns out that an electron spin can only be prepared in quasi-classical states, which obey the old textbook predictions.

    Instead we used a much larger particle, the nucleus of an antimony atom. The spin of this particle can point in eight different directions, instead of just two.

    We were able to place the atom in a so-called “Schrödinger’s cat” state, in which it is in a superposition of two widely different spin directions at once.

    We then performed the Tsirelson-Scarani protocol, which involves measuring not just the average orientation of the spin, but the positivity of it – a very different kind of measurement to what is done in standard spin resonance setups. This experiment showed unquestionable evidence for the quantumness of the antimony’s spin.

    What’s next?

    Our study is important for discovering fundamental truths about the universe, and for providing clarity on what it means to “be quantum”. However, it may also have real-life applications.

    The states that we demonstrated to be quantum with the Tsirelson-Scarani protocol are exactly the kind of thing that give quantum computation and quantum sensing an advantage over classical counterparts. In the future we will focus making the most of these systems for use in technological applications.

    Arjen Vaartjes receives funding from the Sydney Quantum Academy.

    Andrea Morello receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Department of Defence, and the US Army Research Office.

    – ref. New experiments finally prove a long-forgotten theory about how quantum particles spin – https://theconversation.com/new-experiments-finally-prove-a-long-forgotten-theory-about-how-quantum-particles-spin-250059

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian houses are getting larger. For a more sustainable future, our houses can’t be the space for everything

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bhavna Middha, ARC DECRA Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University

    The average Australian household size has decreased from 4.5 people per household in 1911 to 2.5 people in 2024. At the same time, the average house size has increased, from 100 square metres in the 1950s to 236m² in 2020. The average living space in Australian households is now 84m² per person.

    The way we live in our homes – our habits and daily routines – is also growing and changing with our housing, and the way we want to live can shape the size of our homes.

    For a more sustainable future, we need to embrace living in smaller spaces. This means not letting our houses be our primary space for every activity in our lives.

    Our homes and ‘space creep’

    Our houses first became bigger due to space creep, bringing more of the outdoors inside.

    Once, older children were delegated to “sleep outs”, or closed-in verandas, when new siblings arrived. Over time, these draughty and unheated spaces may have been converted into bedrooms, and houses were increasingly built with dedicated rooms for each child.

    Older children were often relegated to sleeping in enclosed verandas, like on this house in Cairns in 1927.
    State Library Queensland

    Our research shows space creep now also occurs even in shrinking, empty nest households. Garages and sheds are increasingly being converted into “man-caves” or rumpus rooms for tinkering, play and privacy.

    Some families we spoke with bought bigger houses because there was a separate “hobby room” for crafts or music, or separate home offices. People now see these spaces as integral to their home life, and buy or build houses with this in mind.

    Space creep is also linked to how we consume. We saw many old fridges and chest freezers in garages, allowing for greater food storage because people were concerned about having enough food in the house, needed to bulk buy items to save money, or because they tried to minimise trips to the store.

    The routines set in these spaces result in us consuming more space. As we, as a society, become used to these spaces, we feel like we should need them.

    COVID changed perceptions of how much space is needed in our homes. People living in apartments now describe them as feeling much smaller than they did before.

    Pets are increasingly viewed as part of the family: almost half of homes have a dog, and one third own a cat. This means either making or buying more space to accommodate pets, as well as more energy consumption.

    Studies have found we spend more time in our houses than in the past, but overall time spent in each space in the house is less. And while the spaciousness of our homes may afford privacy, we lose connection. If every family member is in a different room on their individual screens, we lose some of the benefits of a family room.

    Do we need more apartments?

    After children have left, many people prefer to age in their communities. Without better options of smaller, well-built homes in the same location, older people often hold onto the large family home.

    Planning rules and conventionally designed houses often do not offer the flexibility of subdividing homes that have grown too large. Smaller townhouses in the same area may be two stories with stairs, making them inaccessible for many older people. Older people need to be able to downsize without moving away from their communities, services and local area.

    And yet, it is not as simple or straightforward as everyone living in apartments or units. Some larger houses are still needed to satisfy certain needs, like multi-generational living.

    One in five Victorians want to live in apartments, but only one in ten do.
    Denise Jans/Unsplash

    A recent study found one in five Victorians would prefer to live in an apartment, but only one in ten do.

    In Australia, apartments suitable for families are rare. Students, young couples or young families see apartments as transient living places and not as a forever home, in stark contrast to how families see apartments in many cities in Europe.

    As our lot sizes decrease and our new houses increase in size, garden space is compromised to the detriment of biodiversity, shading from trees and stormwater runoff.

    Low and mid-density living that allows for smaller houses and units with backyards and apartments with generous balconies close to larger shared spaces, like parks and sports grounds, may satisfy the desire for privacy, serenity and improve physical and mental health through contact with nature, while reducing the risk of hotter urban environments.

    Changing priorities

    Transitioning from larger to smaller homes, and from houses to apartments, means shifting from a culture where we have an abundance of private spaces such as pools, home theatres and hobby rooms in our homes to shared social infrastructure.

    We need to see increased investment in social infrastructure – especially in greenfield suburbs with new developments.

    People might chose to have a bigger house so they can have a home gym, instead of a gym membership.
    Pixel-Shot/Shutterstock

    It means investing in walkable community facilities where people can go to pursue their interests and hobbies and connect with others. Instead of a private hobby room, these activities can be brought into a public space. Instead of multiple living areas, families can share one living space or use outside shared spaces such as Men’s Sheds.

    Changes to construction laws may help protect consumers and help householders gain confidence in the monetary value of multi-unit living, by providing solutions for issues in apartments such as cladding, safety and insurance.

    Another important step may be the New South Wales Housing Pattern Book. The book, to be released this year, will contain the winning designs of an international competition for terrace houses and mid-rise apartment buildings that offer compact sized dwellings with flexible room sizes, private and public outdoor spaces and ample natural light. The designs will be able to be licenced for use by developers and home builders, and enjoy faster approval processes.

    The availability of high-quality designs for smaller spaces in connection with attractive neighbourhood places may help Australians reimagine smaller, higher density, good home living.

    Bhavna Middha receives funding from the Australian Research Council for her Discovery Early Career Research Award (2024)

    Nicola Willand receives funding for research from various organisations, including the ARC, the Victorian state government, the Lord Mayor’s Charitable Foundation, the Future Fuels Collaborative Research Centre and the NHMRC. She is a trustee of the Fuel Poverty Research Network charity and affiliated with the Australian Institute of Architects.

    – ref. Australian houses are getting larger. For a more sustainable future, our houses can’t be the space for everything – https://theconversation.com/australian-houses-are-getting-larger-for-a-more-sustainable-future-our-houses-cant-be-the-space-for-everything-245476

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fish and chips shouldn’t come with a catch: how Australia can keep illegal seafood off our plates

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leslie Roberson, Postdoctoral research fellow, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland

    If you’ve ever been stopped by quarantine officers at the airport, you might think Australia’s international border is locked down like a fortress. But when it comes to trade in seafood, it’s more like a net full of holes.

    Products sourced from illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing can easily slip through to unsuspecting buyers.

    Seafood is among the world’s most traded agricultural commodities. Yet illegal fishing accounts for an estimated one-fifth of all wild-caught seafood.

    This represents a serious threat to marine ecosystems, food security and even human rights. The phenomenon has been linked to organised crime, modern slavery, and the depletion of vulnerable species such as abalone and hammerhead sharks.

    The blame usually falls on countries where the fishing occurs, or where the boat is registered. But seafood markets, including processors, retailers and consumers, play a major role in driving demand. They could also play a crucial role in combating illegal fishing.

    In our new policy paper, we propose more effective controls on seafood imports.

    What is illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing? (Australian Fisheries Management Authority)

    Australia’s role as a seafood-loving nation

    Australia spends considerable effort managing its own fisheries, ensuring they are legal and sustainable.

    Yet, 60 to 70% of the seafood consumed in Australia is imported.

    These imports come mainly from countries with weaker environmental regulations, more illegal activity, and greater vulnerability to labour abuse and slavery.

    Current policies leave Australia vulnerable to illegally sourced seafood. Key information, such as the fishing location or species name, is often not required under current trade measures. This means seafood products can be imported under vague labels such as “frozen fish”, obscuring their identity and origins.

    Suspect seafood products

    Certain seafood products such as shark fins are more likely to be sourced illegally for a variety of reasons, including high market value. Other riskier wild-caught products imported into Australia include:

    Most of the seafood consumed in Australia comes from overseas.
    Shine Nucha, Shutterstock

    A new border policy could help crack down on fishy imports

    Australia has made international commitments to consume sustainable seafood, in fisheries policy and through subscribing to the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and the Global Biodiversity Framework. Meeting these commitments will require being more careful about what we import from other countries. This could take the form of stricter border regulations.

    The Australian government has begun to explore trade measures aimed at denying entry to illegal or untraceable seafood products. A group of organisations was formed two years ago to support this process. While a draft report was released at the end of 2023, the final outcome remains delayed – perhaps until after the next federal election.

    To inform this process, we reviewed the existing seafood import policies and recommend eight key design criteria for improvement.

    Only the United States, the European Union, and Japan have systems in place to verify the legal origin of imported seafood. Since these are some of the world’s largest seafood import markets, their efforts are important. But their schemes all have notable flaws that Australia should avoid replicating.

    These systems are technologically obsolete, lack solid traceability and accounting mechanisms, and rely on trade documents that are often impossible to verify. Most systems are not fully electronic, resulting in shipping containers of seafood arriving with shoeboxes of paper catch certificates.

    There are no mechanisms for cooperation between countries. Crosschecking of the same certificate arriving in both France and Italy, for instance, is not yet possible. This makes it easy to reuse certificates across multiple countries, enabling trade of falsely labelled or illegally caught seafood.

    Unlawful transfer of fish between vessels is an example of illegal fishing activity.
    Richard Whitcombe, Shutterstock

    Australia’s chance to take the lead against fishy imports

    Seafood supply chains are notoriously complex. Without effective certification schemes, keeping seafood sourced from illegal fishing operations out of our market is virtually impossible.

    Although Australia’s seafood appetite is minuscule compared to the US, the EU, or Japan, it has the resources and the opportunity to create a better import control system. Such a system would involve designing an electronic platform with automated fraud detection mechanisms that tracks seafood products from the fishing boat, through the supply chain, to the Australian border. Australia can then start to close the sizeable loophole in its efforts to secure a legal and traceable seafood supply.

    Such policies would support sustainable Australian fisheries and help the country’s biggest seafood suppliers to source responsibly. Nearly every country in the world trades seafood: if countries implement smart import policies, illegally sourced seafood will become much easier to intercept.

    The authors appreciate the valuable contributions of Gilles Hosch, a fisheries expert with 25 years of experience in global fisheries compliance and seafood traceability.

    Leslie Roberson receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Carissa Klein receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Rosa Mar Dominguez-Martinez receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Fish and chips shouldn’t come with a catch: how Australia can keep illegal seafood off our plates – https://theconversation.com/fish-and-chips-shouldnt-come-with-a-catch-how-australia-can-keep-illegal-seafood-off-our-plates-249481

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: YouTube hosts a lot of garbage – but the government is right to let kids keep watching it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Page Jeffery, Lecturer in Media and Communications, University of Sydney

    suriyachan/Shutterstock

    When the Australian government passed legislation in November last year banning young people under 16 from social media, it included exemptions for platforms “that are primarily for the purposes of education and health support”. One such platform was YouTube.

    The government is currently conducting private consultations with the tech industry over how the social media ban – which won’t come into effect until at least December this year – will work, and the decision to exempt YouTube.

    Meta and TikTok have criticised the exemption. These tech giants have pointed to research which shows YouTube is the most popular social media platform among young people. They argue all social media sites used by under 16s should be held to the same standard.

    YouTube plays an important part in the digital lives of teens. It is a key source of information and entertainment for young people. At the same time, however, the video streaming platform hosts a diverse range of potentially harmful content, including content espousing misogynistic, racist, hateful and far-right ideologies.

    So is YouTube’s exemption from the social media ban justified?

    A multipurpose platform

    For many teens, YouTube is a major source of information. It offers not only entertainment, but also a sense of community.

    Young people use it to listen to and search for music and for watching television content; to keep up with news; to create their own content; for social connection; and to learn about new topics.

    YouTube has also been found to create a sense of community and boost the collective self-esteem of the LGBTQ community.

    Many organisations – such as mental health and sexual health organisations – seek to deliver important health information to young people through YouTube.

    In my research with families, parents and teens have told me YouTube is an invaluable source of information for both parents and teens. It can facilitate family bonding through co-viewing of either educational or entertaining videos.

    YouTube occupies an important place in the lives of young people. So banning them from it would cut off an important source of information, education, entertainment and connection.

    For many teens, YouTube is a major source of information. It offers not only entertainment, but also a sense of community.
    PixieMe/Shutterstock

    Recommending harmful content

    However, we also know that YouTube – like other social media sites and the internet more broadly – also contains potentially harmful content that the platform may recommend to young users.

    The algorithmic systems that recommend new videos to viewers can be difficult to study due to their opaque nature as commercially valuable IP carefully guarded by platforms.

    But from the studies that do exist, we know YouTube’s recommendation system has served content that is sexually explicit and otherwise distressing to young users.

    A recent report by Reset Tech also found YouTube’s algorithms may promote misogynistic and other extremist content to young people.

    A different design

    YouTube has in place a range of content moderation policies designed to combat these issues. For example, it takes action to prioritise in its recommendations sources from channels it deems reliable and unlikely to contain harmful content, with mixed results.

    Content that might harm young people is explicitly banned under the platform’s community guidelines.

    Of course, most social media platforms have similar restrictions in their guidelines.

    A key difference between YouTube and other social media platforms, however, is the way YouTube is designed to be used.

    Unlike Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat, YouTube is not designed to be a social network. Users can and most commonly do go to the platform to passively watch videos, just as they might go to Disney+ or Netflix.

    The social media ban will apply to platforms such as Facebook, X and TikTok.
    Danishch/Shutterstock

    Striking the right balance

    The most alarming research into the impact of social media on young people suggests they are at the highest risk of harm when they are encouraged to actively rather than passively participate on social media platforms.

    Exempting YouTube from the ban strikes the right balance between recognising and valuing forms of cultural practice and consumption important to young people today and protecting them from online harm.

    But we should still continue to demand better practices from YouTube. There is always more these social media companies can do to protect their users from harm. When they fail to do so, they should be held accountable.

    While exempting YouTube from this ban, they should still be held to the highest safety standards under Australia’s Online Safety Act.

    The exemption also does not mean young people should be able to freely engage with YouTube without restriction or oversight.

    We must talk to our kids about what they watch, teach them critical thinking skills and ensure they have rich lives outside of the digital realm.

    One tangible step parents can take to reduce the risk of harm is to turn off the autoplay setting on YouTube for their kids, so videos do not stream back to back, stopping the endless flow of videos and providing an opportunity for viewers to consider what and whether they want to watch another video.

    Catherine Page Jeffery receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with Children and Media Australia.

    Joanne Gray currently receives funding from the Australian Research Council and has previously received funding for research from companies such as Meta Platforms and ByteDance.

    – ref. YouTube hosts a lot of garbage – but the government is right to let kids keep watching it – https://theconversation.com/youtube-hosts-a-lot-of-garbage-but-the-government-is-right-to-let-kids-keep-watching-it-250050

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Online violence and misogyny are still on the rise – NZ needs a tougher response

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cassandra Mudgway, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Canterbury

    Yesterday’s revelation of a 2023 standoff between the Human Rights Commission and New Zealand’s internet safety agencies highlights lingering concern about the current online safety code.

    According to the report from RNZ, the commission told NZ Tech and Netsafe that social media companies X Corp. and Meta failed to protect former prime minister Jacinda Ardern from misogynistic and dehumanising violence across their platforms.

    The commission’s claim that the Code of Practice for Online Safety and Harms was not fit for purpose apparently drew a sharp legal response from the agencies, which argued the commission showed bias and had overstepped its remit.

    But the historical incident raises important questions New Zealand has yet to grapple with properly.

    Established in 2022, the code is a voluntary set of commitments co-designed with the technology industry, including some social media companies such as Meta and X-Corp.

    Companies become signatories to the code and agree to its commitments. The current signatories are Meta, Google, TikTok, Twitch and X Corp.

    Among other provisions, the code asks signatories to take steps to reduce harmful content on their platforms or services, including harassment (where there is an intent to cause harm), hate speech (which includes sexist hate speech), incitement of violence and disinformation.

    The code is not legally enforceable. Compliance relies on willingness to adopt such measures. But there is an accountability structure in the form of an oversight committee. The public can lodge complaints with the committee if they believe signatories have breached the code, and the committee can remove a signatory from the code.

    When it was launched, the code received some international acclaim as an example of best practice for digital safety. But its critics argued that because it was co-written with social media companies, the commitments were not as strong or effective as they might have been.

    Jacinda Ardern was the target of extreme levels of online misogyny and violent rhetoric.
    Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

    Is the code effective?

    Last year, Netsafe rang the alarm about increasing rates of online misogyny and violent extremism, including the targeting of public figures and politicians.

    This raises obvious questions about the code’s effectiveness. Since the Human Rights Commission cited the extreme online violence directed at Jacinda Ardern, former Green Party MP Golriz Ghahraman has spoken about the violent online misogyny and racism she experienced while in office.

    These forms of gender-based violence are a breach of women’s human rights. They also lead to women politicians self-censoring, avoiding social media, and generally having less contact with the public.

    Some overseas studies have shown prolonged exposure to online violence has led to women MPs leaving office sooner than planned. Overall, online harm endangers representative democracy and breaches women’s rights to participate in politics.

    The human rights implications also mean the New Zealand government has legal duties under international treaties to prevent online gender-based violence.

    The United Nations has also called on social media companies to do more to prevent the spread of racial hatred. As such, it is a function of the Human Rights Commission to promote and monitor compliance with international standards.

    NZ is out of step internationally

    In its current form, the code is not effective. Its commitments aim to reduce harm rather than eliminate it, and it is not comprehensive about the kinds of harm it wants signatories to reduce.

    For example, it does not include reference to “volumetric” attacks – the type of coordinated harassment campaigns against a person that were directed at Ardern.

    Further, the code’s threshold for “harm” is high, requiring the online violence to pose an imminent and serious threat to users’ safety. This does not easily capture the types of gender-based violence, such as misogynistic hate speech, that over time normalise violence against women.

    The code also emphasises the role of users in managing harmful content, rather than placing a responsibility on the platforms to investigate how their services and technologies might be misused to cause harm.

    Relying on voluntary commitments also puts New Zealand out of step with other countries such as the United Kingdom and Australia which have legally enforceable requirements for social media companies to protect online safety.

    Placing that burden on users – to block, report or remove content – is merely reactive. It does not prevent harm because it has already happened. And for some groups, such as MPs and public figures, the harm they receive can be overwhelming and seemingly endless.

    Preventing online gender-based violence requires proactive measures that are legally enforceable. To fulfil its international obligations, the government should urgently review the need for legal regulation that places the burden of online safety on large social media companies rather than on users.

    Cassandra Mudgway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Online violence and misogyny are still on the rise – NZ needs a tougher response – https://theconversation.com/online-violence-and-misogyny-are-still-on-the-rise-nz-needs-a-tougher-response-250033

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cook Islanders march in Avarua against Mark Brown government

    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist, in Avarua, Rarotonga

    More than 400 people have taken to the streets to protest against Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown’s recent decisions, which have led to a diplomatic spat with New Zealand.

    The protest, led by Opposition MP and Cook Islands United Party leader Teariki Heather, has taken place outside the Cook Islands Parliament in Avarua — a day after Brown returned from China.

    Protesters have come out with placards, stating: “Stay connected with New Zealand.”

    The protest in Avarua today.    Video: RNZ

    Some government ministers have been standing outside Parliament, including Foreign Minister Tingika Elikana.

    Heather said he was present at the rally to how how much Cook Islanders cared about the relationship with New Zealand and valued the New Zealand passport.

    He has apologised to the New Zealand government on behalf of the Cook Islands government.

    Leader of the opposition and Democratic Party leader Tina Browne said she wanted the local passport to be off the table “forever and ever”.

    “We have no problem with our government going and seeking assistance,” she said.

    “We do have a problem when it is risking our sovereignty, risking our relationship with New Zealand.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AFL and NRL pre-seasons are among the longest in world sport – here’s why

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joel Garrett, Lecturer in Exercise Science and Physiology, Griffith University

    Australia’s love affair with the major football codes – the Australian Football League (AFL) and National Rugby League (NRL) – is well documented. However, one aspect that stands out to many observers, particularly those overseas, is the length of these leagues’ pre-seasons.

    While global and international sports such as soccer and the United States’ National Football League (NFL) typically have pre-seasons lasting only a few weeks to two months, AFL and NRL pre-seasons can stretch well beyond that, sometimes up to and even surpassing four months.

    Why do these two codes, more than almost any others, devote such an extended block of time to pre-season training?

    The answer lies in a blend of the diverse physical qualities required to play AFL and NRL and the greater risk of injury associated with short preparation times.

    High-impact collisions and diverse physical demands

    Both the AFL and NRL are considered contact team sports. Athletes are required to cover large distances at speed, with frequent contact.

    AFL players can run upwards of 12–17 kilometres per match, at incredibly high intensities, all while executing numerous technical actions, such as kicking, catching, handballing and tackling.

    NRL players face similar challenges. Athletes are required to perform more than 30 high-impact collisions per game combined with repeated bouts of high-intensity activity, such as running and sprinting.

    This blend of endurance, strength and power, combined with the high contact demands, creates a distinct training challenge.

    Off-season programs must therefore develop multiple physical qualities. These include endurance for sustained high-intensity efforts, speed and agility for generating and closing space, and strength and power for tackling, wrestling and contested ball situations.

    A shorter pre-season can limit the time available to improve each of these qualities safely. This in turn increases the likelihood of in-season injuries and reduced performance overall.

    NRL athletes endure some brutal training sessions to prepare for each season.

    Longer pre-seasons and injury prevention

    From a sports science perspective, a key benefit of extended pre-seasons is the gradual increase in training load. This helps reduce injury risk once the season begins.

    Research has shown the importance of progressive overload (gradually increasing training demands in a safe, structured manner), recovery management, and adequate conditioning to tolerate in-season demands.

    Evidence also shows increased pre-season participation, additional pre-season sessions and higher workloads (such as total distance) result in fewer games missed due to injury within the season.

    These findings underscore that a carefully structured, longer preparation phase, even if it appears arduous, can build resilience.

    By gradually but systematically exposing players to both low- and high-intensity running volumes, physical contact, and skill-based sessions, clubs can equip their athletes’ bodies to withstand the onerous demands of an AFL or NRL season.

    What do other codes do?

    European football (soccer) clubs often have limited downtime between league seasons and international fixtures.

    Pre-season often entails high-profile international exhibition tours, leaving little space for the months-long conditioning programs common in AFL and NRL.

    Moreover, the absence of a draft system can mean injured players are simply replaced via the transfer market. This reduces the incentive for longer pre-season conditioning to keep key athletes healthy.

    The NFL’s pre-season is relatively short. It uses a training camp model that includes a few pre-season games in which their “starters” play a limited role due to injury concerns.

    The sport’s stop-start nature and its athletes’ highly specialised positional requirements also results in players having a more specific physical profile. In contrast, AFL and NRL players require a broader physical profile.

    In recent years, the NFL has become increasingly aware of higher injury rates tied to abrupt increases in training load. It is now exploring extended or restructured pre-season protocols that in part aim to reduce injury risk.

    Changes may be afoot

    Interestingly, the AFL itself may face a similar scenario this year.

    In the most recent off-season, many AFL clubs had only two to three weeks of full-squad structured training before Christmas, followed by three weeks off.

    This approach, designed to provide player downtime, might inadvertently produce an effect akin to what the NFL experiences, where shorter preparation periods are linked to higher rates of tendon and soft-tissue injuries.

    Sports scientists at Australian clubs will be monitoring training loads closely when their players return, aiming to avoid the pitfalls of quick turnarounds meeting high-impact competition.

    There’s a reason for these long pre-seasons

    Devoting three to four months to pre-season training is not merely a quirk of the Australian sporting calendar.

    It is a necessary response to the extreme physical demands of these codes. More importantly, a longer, carefully managed pre-season significantly lowers in-season injury risks.

    Clubs need to strike a balance between giving players sufficient rest and allowing enough time for a measured and carefully planned off-season. This not only enhances performance, but reduces injuries.

    Given the evidence, it is little wonder that Australian codes invest so heavily in this crucial preparation phase.

    Darren Burgess, General Manager of High Performance at Adelaide Football Club, contributed to this article.

    Joel Garrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AFL and NRL pre-seasons are among the longest in world sport – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/afl-and-nrl-pre-seasons-are-among-the-longest-in-world-sport-heres-why-248430

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is Australia’s GST a tax or a tariff? And why has it become a target in the trade wars?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Felicity Deane, Professor, Queensland University of Technology

    Australian beef exports to the United States are GST-free and should not be subject to any retaliatory tariff. William Edge/Shutterstock

    The latest round of proposed tariffs from US President Donald Trump includes a response to what the White House describes as “unfair” taxes – specifically, value-added taxes such as Australia’s Goods and Services Tax (GST).

    Most economically advanced countries have a value-added tax (VAT) or sales tax on consumption. This applies to domestic goods and services as well as to imports. The United States is one of the few countries that does not impose a sales tax, though many of the states impose their own sales tax.

    So the argument, according to the White House, is these taxes apply to imported goods, but not to exports.

    Is the GST a tax or a tariff?

    The GST is a broad-based consumption tax of 10%. It applies to most goods and services that are consumed in Australia, regardless of their origin.

    An import tariff – sometimes called an import duty – is imposed exclusively on imported goods as a condition of market access.

    Tariffs are not imposed on domestically produced goods at all. This is the main point of difference with a domestic consumption tax. The GST applies equally to imported and domestically produced goods, adhering to long-agreed international trade rules.

    It remains unclear how the Trump administration intends to implement a tariff that is equivalent to the 10% GST. In effect, this becomes a tax on US consumers if they buy Australian goods.



    Read more:
    What’s a trade war?

    Such an indirect tax would be regressive, which means it falls more heavily on lower-income consumers. The expansion of tariffs to include other nations’ VAT systems also represents a significant overreach into national sovereignty. It has long been accepted that sovereign nations have the right to tax their citizens and businesses as they see fit.

    Indeed, Australia’s GST is among the lowest among economically advanced nations, for which the average is 19%, so the wider impact on US consumers will be even greater.

    Goods that are exported to the US face a new round of tariffs.
    Shutterstock

    Trump is clearly (and unapologetically) seeking to reinvigorate US manufacturing. But the reality is that US labour costs are high. It is also inefficient for any country to produce all the goods and services its population requires. This is particularly the case in such a high-consumption nation as the US.

    The US has been described as a consumer of last resort
    because strong consumer demand has been filled by ever rising imports from other countries. The mutually beneficial relationship between the US and China has enabled the rise of the middle class in China. Trump’s tariffs may shift this, causing geopolitical tensions and economic instability.

    Australia’s response: pausing the digital services tax

    While these tariffs primarily harm US consumers, Australian businesses will also feel the effects. However, it is unclear to what extent. Notably, one main export to the US, unprocessed agricultural products such as beef, are GST-free and should not be subject to any retaliatory tariff.

    However, many other Australian exports could be disadvantaged. Trump’s policies will raise the cost of Australian imported goods in the US market, potentially making them less appealing to US consumers.

    The threat of these tariffs is clearly a problem for a federal government facing an impending election, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has so far responded cautiously. While a diplomatic approach may secure a minor concession, it’s in stark contrast to Canada’s firm stance, which included immediate threats of retaliatory measures.



    Read more:
    Whether we carve out an exemption or not, Trump’s latest tariffs will still hit Australia

    Trump’s use of tariff threats as a negotiating tactic does appear to be having the desired effect, with a potential suspension of Australia’s proposed big tech levy. This proposal would have imposed a tax on major tech firms such as Meta and Google if they did not reach a direct agreement with local media companies.

    Reports indicate the government has put this proposal on hold due to the risk of retaliatory tariffs from the US. Such a tax would likely have invoked the wrath of the US administration, with the digital services levies of Canada and France specifically referenced in the most recent White House tariff announcement.

    It is fair to say the White House statement deliberately misleads any reader into thinking that tariff percentages directly impact on trade volumes.

    This statement ignores a fundamental principle that has made international trade so appealing since World War II – and why economists have argued in support of it for hundreds of years. Countries produce and trade the goods and services at which they are efficient. Efficiency leads to lower costs which, all else being equal, means consumers are better off.

    The statement from the White House, together with Trump’s past pronouncements, demonstrate that all rules to do with international taxation and fairness have been thrown out.

    This does not appear to be the main concern, however, with Australian negotiators potentially willing to put on hold a crucial policy to ensure the long-term viability of local journalism.

    This is just the beginning. Anyone who felt some comfort and safety in the strength of our own democracy should carefully consider the overreach that is occurring through these threats.

    Felicity Deane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is Australia’s GST a tax or a tariff? And why has it become a target in the trade wars? – https://theconversation.com/is-australias-gst-a-tax-or-a-tariff-and-why-has-it-become-a-target-in-the-trade-wars-250041

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Boys not only perform better in maths, they are also more confident about the subject than girls

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Buckley, Senior Research Fellow, Education Research, Policy and Development Division, Australian Council for Educational Research

    Michael Jung/ Shutterstock

    There is a persistent gender gap in Australian schools. Boys, on average, outperform girls in maths.

    We see this in national tests such as NAPLAN, as well as international assessments.

    New Australian Council for Educational Research analysis by my colleague Catherine Underwood shows how boys, on average, are also more confident and positive about maths than girls.

    What can parents do to help their children feel more confident about this core subject?



    Read more:
    Why are boys outperforming girls in maths?

    Boys outperform girls in maths

    An important measure of students’ maths performance is the OECD’s Programme for International Assessment (PISA) test. Run every three years, it measures 15-year-olds’ ability to apply their maths, science and reading knowledge to real-world situations.

    In 2022, 53% of Australian male students achieved the PISA national proficiency standard in maths, compared with 48% of female students. The gender gap on average scores was also greater in Australia than across the OECD.

    As part of PISA, students also completed a questionnaire about their attitudes to learning. ACER’s new analysis uses data from the questionnaire to look at Australian students’ confidence in maths and how this differs between girls and boys.

    Boys outperformed girls in maths skills in the most recent PISA test.
    Monkey Business Images/ Shutterstock

    Why is confidence so important?

    Research suggests students’ confidence has an impact on their academic performance.
    Researchers can call this “self-efficacy”, or the belief in your ability to successfully perform tasks and solve problems.

    Students with high mathematical self-efficacy embrace challenges, use effective problem-solving strategies, and persevere despite difficulties. Those with low self-efficacy may avoid tasks, experience anxiety, and ultimately underperform due to a lack of confidence in their maths abilities.

    We can see this in the 2022 PISA results. Girls in the top quarter on the self-rated “self-efficacy index” scored an average of 568 points on the PISA maths performance test, a staggering 147 points higher than the average for girls in the lowest quarter on the index.

    For boys, the benefit of confidence was even more pronounced. Those in the top quarter of the index scored 159 points on average higher in maths performance than those in the lowest quarter.

    Boys are more confident than girls

    The PISA questionnaire asked students how confident they felt about having to do a range of formal and applied maths tasks.

    Students showed similar levels of confidence solving formal maths tasks such as equations. But male students, on average, showed they were more confident than female students with applied mathematics tasks such as:

    • finding distances using a map

    • calculating a power consumption rate

    • calculating how much more expensive a computer would be after adding tax

    • calculating how many square metres of tiles are needed to cover a floor.

    What about attitude?

    The PISA data also shows Australian boys, on average, have more positive attitudes towards maths than girls.

    For example, in response to the statement “mathematics is easy for me” only 41% of female students agreed, compared with 55% of male students.

    In response to “mathematics is one of my favourite subjects”, 37% of female students agreed, compared with 49% of males.

    But in response to “I want to do well in my mathematics class”, 91% of female students agreed, compared to 92% of males.

    What can parents do at home to help?

    It is troubling that girls, on average, show consistently lower levels of confidence about maths tasks.

    This comes on top of other PISA questionnaire results that have shown in general (not just around maths) that a higher proportion of girls than boys say they feel nervous approaching exams.

    We want all students to have a positive relationship with maths, where they can appreciate maths skills are important in many aspects of their lives, and they’re willing to have a go to develop them.

    Recently, we collaborated with the Victorian Academy of Teaching and Leadership on resources for teachers, students and parents that focus on addressing maths anxiety.

    Research shows how we talk about maths at home is important in shaping students’ attitudes and persistence. Parents can help create a positive atmosphere around maths by:

    • dispelling “maths myths”, such as the idea maths ability is fixed and no amount of effort or practise can improve it

    • talking about how making mistakes is a normal part of learning

    • thinking about about how we forgive mistakes in other areas (such as sport, art or science): how can we treat maths mistakes in a similar way?

    • telling your child they have done a good job when they put effort into their maths learning.

    Parents can also help their children even if they don’t know the answers to maths problems. It’s perfectly fine to say, “I’m not sure how to do that one but who can we ask for help? Let’s talk to the teacher.”

    Modelling a “help-seeking” approach lets children know that it’s OK not to know the answer, the key is to persist and try.



    Read more:
    ‘Maths anxiety’ is a real thing. Here are 3 ways to help your child cope

    Sarah Buckley is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow in the Faculty of Education at the University of Melbourne and was on the academic advisory group for maths education app TownSquared. Sarah has worked on projects for ACER funded by the national and various state education departments and by ARC research grants.

    – ref. Boys not only perform better in maths, they are also more confident about the subject than girls – https://theconversation.com/boys-not-only-perform-better-in-maths-they-are-also-more-confident-about-the-subject-than-girls-250022

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian students just recorded the lowest civics scores since testing began. But young people do care about politics

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philippa Collin, Professor, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney University

    Australian school students’ civics knowledge is the lowest it has been since testing began 20 years ago, according to new national data.

    Results have fallen since the last assessment in 2019 and to the lowest levels since the national civics test began in 2004.

    This follows a federal parliamentary report earlier this month, calling for mandatory civics education in Australian schools (it is currently part of the curriculum but not compulsory). The report cited fears young people are “poorly equipped” to participate in Australian democracy.

    The latest results are certainly concerning. But as a researcher of the political lives of young people, I would caution against assuming young people “don’t care” about politics, or are unable to engage in it.

    We also need to think about how civics education can engage meaningfully with young people and meet their needs.

    What does the new report say?

    This report from the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority is based on a national sample of Year 6 and Year 10 students, who are tested on their civics and citizenship skills. It includes knowledge of democratic principles, the Australian political system and related history.

    The test is supposed to run every three years, but the most recent one was delayed by COVID. In 2024:

    • 43% of Year 6 students attained the “proficient standard”, compared with 53% in 2019

    • 28% of Australian Year 10 students met the proficient standard, compared with 38% in 2019.

    Young people care about history and community

    Alongside their civics skills, students were also asked about their support for a range of “citizenship behaviours”. While these figures have dropped from previous years, they nevertheless indicate most students are engaged in civic issues.

    • 81% of Year 6 students and 75% of Year 10 students thought learning about Australa’s history was “very or quite” important

    • 77% of Year 6 students and 70% of Year 10 students thought participating in activities to benefit the local community was “very or quite” important

    • 85% of Year 6 students and 68% of Year 10 students thought taking part in activities to protect the environment was “very or quite important”.

    Young people are knowledgable and active

    My research with young Australians shows they are interested, knowledgeable and active on civic and political issues in many different ways.

    This includes getting involved in or creating their own organisations, campaigns and online content. The issues range from bullying to mental health, climate change and ending gender-based violence.

    My research also shows even children as young as six have views on how to address complex issues such as climate change.

    When provided with platforms that respect their views, young people show they can research, deliberate and problem-solve. Many have clear opinions on what makes for a good life for themselves, Australia and the world. Initiatives such as a children’s parliament can connect their views directly with those who govern.

    Young people don’t feel included

    But governments and other authorities are historically poor at meaningfully engaging with young people.

    In my work and other research, we continue to hear many students feel they don’t have a genuine voice in the community.

    For example, in the climate movement, young female activists have said they do not feel feel their views are taken seriously by decision-makers because they are under 18.

    This suggests children’s interest and confidence in democracy could be supported by giving them meaningful opportunities to participate before they can vote.

    For example, creating governance mechanisms that include and are accountable to young people on matters that affect them. This should extend to issues which will significantly impact them into the future, such as housing and tax.

    Technology and critical media literacy matter

    We also have to make sure students are supported to get good quality information about issues relevant to them. And that they have the skills and resources to navigate information online.

    Research suggests engagement with news and strong media literacy skills are linked to civic participation.

    Studies have also found many Australian children who have high interest in the news are also involved in social issues online. Research shows social media is a key source for this news (as opposed to traditional sources such as newspapers or television).

    At the same time, just 41% of children aged 8–16 are confident they can tell fake news stories from real ones (which is is similar to survey results for adults).

    We also know some students, particularly from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, lack access to the technology they need for their schooling and everyday lives.

    How can civics and citizenship knowledge be improved?

    The new data certainly indicates the current system for civics education is not working for Australian students.

    As we work to improve young people’s civics knowledge, research indicates any new approach in schools should be created in conjunction with young people themselves. If young people are given a say in how their civics education is designed, they will be more engaged and the lessons will be more effective, especially for students who face disadvantage.

    Other studies we have co-designed and co-researched with young people have resulted in recommendations to trust young people and give them responsibilities and real-world learning opportunities, outside of school. They prioritised self-efficacy (people’s belief they can can control events that affect their lives) and a sense of belonging.

    If civics education is going to be effective, it should acknowledge young people already have an interest and a stake in politics, focus on where they get their information, and involve them in how civics education is designed and delivered.

    We might then have a model for supporting civics and citizenship learning across the community and across people’s lives.

    Philippa Collin receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Google, batyr and NSW Health.

    – ref. Australian students just recorded the lowest civics scores since testing began. But young people do care about politics – https://theconversation.com/australian-students-just-recorded-the-lowest-civics-scores-since-testing-began-but-young-people-do-care-about-politics-250047

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –