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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-Evening Report: 3 reasons to fear humanity won’t reach net-zero emissions – and 4 reasons we might just do it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Rowley, Honorary Associate Professor, The Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    UNIKYLUCKK/Shutterstock

    Within hours of taking office last week, President Donald Trump made good on his pledges to wind back the United States’ climate action – including withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement.

    This political show comes barely a week after 2024 was revealed as the world’s hottest year and following the catastrophic Los Angeles fires. The fires directly killed 20 people; potentially many more will die from toxic smoke and other after-effects.

    The science is clear: achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is humanity’s only hope of achieving some measure of climate security. It’s time to think deeply on our chances of getting there.

    Here, I outline a few reasons for pessimism, and for hope.

    Reasons for pessimism

    1. The data doesn’t lie

    The landmark Paris Agreement, signed by 196 nations in 2015, aimed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Achieving that requires reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century.

    Yet nearly a decade after the agreement, global emissions continue to rise. The Global Carbon Budget estimates a record-high 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ was emitted last year.

    And 2024 was not just the hottest year on record – it was the first year to exceed the 1.5°C temperature threshold.

    It’s not too late to change trajectory. But sadly, the data show the bathtub is fast filling, and the tap is still running hard.

    2. Renewable energy rollout is too slow

    Renewable energy deployment is increasing and the price is falling. But it’s not happening fast enough.

    According to the International Energy Agency, clean energy investment must more than double this decade if the net-zero goal is to be reached by 2050. In particular, clean energy investment in developing countries must increase significantly.

    Richer nations – which are largely responsible for the stock of emissions in the atmosphere driving the climate problem – are failing to help developing countries make the clean energy shift. At the COP29 climate talks in Baku last year, developed nations agreed to give only US$300 billion (A$474 billion) a year in climate finance to developing countries by 2035. It is nowhere near enough.

    Richer nations have not provided the funds the developing world needs to make the clean energy shift.
    PradeepGaurs/Shutterstock

    3. The net-zero smokescreen

    Net-zero emissions is not the same as zero emissions. It allows some industries to keep polluting, if equivalent emissions are removed from the atmosphere elsewhere to keep the balance at zero.

    This means nations that are purportedly committed to the net-zero goal can continue with business as usual, or worse.

    In 2023, for example, then-British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 100 new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, saying it was “entirely consistent” with his government’s net-zero goal. The same logic has allowed Australia’s environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, to approve new coal mines.

    Both decisions came from governments that have pledged commitment to reaching net-zero – yet both are clearly making the goal harder to achieve.

    These are just a few of the reasons to feel pessimistic about getting to net-zero – there are many more.

    Barriers exist to extracting the critical minerals needed in low-emissions technology. Differences in human relationships to nature means we will never reach full agreement on how to respond to environmental risk. And globally, there is rising mistrust in international agreements and institutions.

    But it’s not all doom and gloom. Here’s why.

    Reasons for hope

    1. Renewable energy is cheap

    Renewable energy has become the cheapest form of new electricity in history. The technologies are now less expensive than coal and gas in most major countries.

    The International Energy Agency projects global renewable capacity will increase by more than 5,520 gigawatts between 2024 and 2030. This is 2.6 times more than the deployment over the six years to 2023.

    The growth in rooftop solar is expected to more than triple, as equipment costs decline and social acceptance increases.

    Renewable energy has become the [cheapest form of new electricity in history.
    Quality Stock Arts/Shutterstock

    2. Commitments to net-zero are many

    Global support for the net-zero goal is significant. According to Net Zero Tracker, 147 of 198 countries have set a net-zero target. Some 1,176 of the 2,000 largest publicly traded companies by revenue have also adopted it.

    Without seeing the plans, numbers, laws, regulations and investments required to achieve these ambitions, one should be sceptical – but not cynical.

    3. Tech innovation and climate response are in lock-step

    Twenty-five years ago, smartphones did not exist, email was new and we “surfed” a new thing called the worldwide web with a slow dial-up modem.

    Similarly, our technologies will look very different 25 years from now – and many developments will ultimately help deliver the net-zero goal.

    Smart electricity grids, for example, use digital technologies, sensors and software to precisely meet the demand of electricity users – making the system more efficient and reducing carbon emissions.

    The European Union, United States and China are all investing vast sums to support their development.

    Already, we can use smart meters to monitor electricity generation from our roofs to our cars and home batteries. This allows zero-emissions electricity to both be used and sold back to the grid.

    Tech innovation is not confined to the electricity sector. As Australia’s Climate Change Authority has stated, technology offers pathways to reduce emissions across the economy – in transport, agriculture, industry and more.

    We already have the means to monitor electricity generation and use at home.
    aslysun/Shutterstock

    4. Human talent and capacity

    Many of humanity’s best minds are now focused on reducing climate risk.

    Climate change mitigation is attracting remarkable professionals in roles unimaginable 25 years ago – from engineers developing breakthrough renewable technologies to financial experts designing green investment products, policy specialists crafting new regulations, and climate scientists refining our understanding of climate risk.

    And among much of the public, global support for climate action is strong.

    No time for despair

    The fact that humans caused climate change is an enabling truth: we also have the capacity to make decisions to address the problem.

    Our choices today will make a difference. It will be a bumpy road – but to achieve some measure of climate security, net-zero is a goal we must achieve.

    Nick Rowley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 3 reasons to fear humanity won’t reach net-zero emissions – and 4 reasons we might just do it – https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-to-fear-humanity-wont-reach-net-zero-emissions-and-4-reasons-we-might-just-do-it-247992

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Too many Australians miss out on essential medical care every year. Here’s how to fix ‘GP deserts’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute

    Zhuravlev Andrey/Shutterstock

    Some communities are “GP deserts”, where there are too few GPs to ensure everyone can get the care they need when they need it. These communities are typically sicker and poorer than the rest of Australia, but receive less care and face higher fees.

    At the 2025 federal election, all parties should commit to changing that. The next government – whether Labor or Coalition, majority or minority – should set a minimum level of access to GP care, and fund local schemes to fill the worst gaps.

    People in GP deserts miss out on care

    About half a million Australians live in GP deserts. These are communities in the bottom 5% for GP services per person. Most GP deserts are in remote Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and some are in Canberra.

    People in GP deserts receive 40% fewer GP services than the national average. This means less of the essential check-ups, screening and medication management GPs provide.

    Nurses and Aboriginal health workers help plug some of the gap, but even then GP deserts aren’t close to catching up to other areas.

    And some people miss out altogether. Last year, 8% of people older than 65 in these areas didn’t see the GP at all, compared to less than 1% in the rest of the country.

    Poorer and sicker places miss out, year after year

    GP deserts are in the worst possible places. These communities are typically sicker and poorer, so they should be getting more care than the rest of Australia, not less.

    People in GP deserts are almost twice more likely to go to hospital for a condition that might have been avoided with good primary care, or to die from an avoidable cause.

    Most GP deserts are in the bottom 40% for wealth, yet pay more for care. Patients in GP deserts are bulk billed six percentage points less than the national average.


    These communities miss out year after year. While rises and falls in national bulk billing rates get headlines, the persistent gaps in GP care are ignored. The same communities have languished well below the national average for more than a decade.

    Policies to boost rural primary care don’t go far enough

    Most GP deserts are rural, so recent policies to boost rural primary care could help a bit.

    In response to rising out-of-pocket costs, the government has committed A$3.5 billion to triple bulk-billing payments for the most disadvantaged. Those payments are much higher for clinics in rural areas. An uptick in rural bulk billing last year is an early indication it may be working.

    Older people in GP deserts are much less likely to see a GP than their peers in other parts of the country.
    Theera Disayarat/Shutterstock

    New rural medical schools and programs should help boost rural GP supply, since students who come from, and train in, rural areas are more likely to work in them. A “rural generalist” pathway recognises GPs who have trained in an additional skill, such as obstetrics or mental health services.

    But broad-based rural policies are not enough. Not all rural areas are GP deserts, and not all GP deserts are rural. Australia also needs more tailored approaches.

    Local schemes can work

    Some communities have taken matters into their own hands.

    In Triabunna on Tasmania’s east coast, a retirement in 2020 saw residents left with only one GP, forcing people to travel to other areas for care, sometimes for well over an hour. This was a problem for other towns in the region too, such as Swansea and Bicheno, as well as much of rural Tasmania.

    In desperation, the local council has introduced a A$90 medical levy to help fund new clinics. It’s also trialling a new multidisciplinary care approach, bringing together many different health practitioners to provide care at a single contact point and reduce pressure on GPs. Residents get more care and spend less time and effort coordinating individual appointments.

    Murrumbidgee in New South Wales has taken a different approach. There, trainee doctors retain a single employer throughout their placements. That means they can work across the region, in clinics funded by the federal government and hospitals managed by the state government, without losing employment benefits. That helps trainees to stay closely connected to their communities and their patients. Murrumbidgee’s success has inspired similar trials in other parts of NSW, South Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.

    These are promising approaches, but they put the burden on communities to piece together funding to plug holes. Without secure funding, these fixes will remain piecemeal and precarious, and risk a bidding war to attract GPs, which would leave poorer communities behind.

    Australia should guarantee a minimum level of GP care

    The federal government should guarantee a minimum level of general practice for all communities. If services funded by Medicare and other sources stay below that level for years, funding should automatically become available to bridge the gap.

    The federal and state governments should be accountable for fixing GP deserts. These regions typically have small populations, few clinicians, and limited infrastructure. So governments must work together to make the best use of scarce resources.

    Some states have introduced schemes where doctors can work in a range of locations.
    Stephen Barnes/Shutterstock

    Funding must be flexible, because every GP desert is different. Sometimes the solution may be as simple as helping an existing clinic hire extra staff. Other communities may want to set up a new clinic, or introduce telehealth for routine check-ups. There is no lack of ideas about how to close gaps in care, the problem lies in funding them.

    Lifting all GP deserts to the top of the desert threshold – or guaranteeing at least 4.5 GP services per person per year, adjusted for age, would cost the federal government at least A$30 million a year in Medicare payments.

    Providing extra services in GP deserts will be more expensive than average. But even if the cost was doubled or tripled, it would still be only a fraction of the billions of dollars of extra incentives GPs are getting to bulk bill – and it would transform the communities that need help the most.

    GP deserts didn’t appear overnight. Successive governments have left some communities with too little primary care. The looming federal election gives every party the opportunity to make amends.

    If they do, the next term of government could see GP deserts eliminated for good.

    Peter Breadon and Wendy Hu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment. Grattan Institute has been supported in its work by government, corporates, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporting organisations is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

    .

    – ref. Too many Australians miss out on essential medical care every year. Here’s how to fix ‘GP deserts’ – https://theconversation.com/too-many-australians-miss-out-on-essential-medical-care-every-year-heres-how-to-fix-gp-deserts-245253

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Elon Musk now has an office in the White House. What’s his political game plan?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Henry Maher, Lecturer in Politics, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

    Shutterstock/The Conversation

    Elon Musk has emerged as one of the most influential and controversial powerbrokers in the new Trump administration. He spent at least US$277 million (about A$360 million) of his own money to help Donald Trump win re-election, campaigning alongside him around the country.

    This significant investment of time and money raises the question of what the world’s wealthiest person hopes to receive in return. Critics have wondered whether Musk’s support for Trump is just a straightforward commercial transaction, with Musk expecting to receive political favours.

    Or does it reflect Musk’s own genuinely held political views, and perhaps personal political ambition?

    From left to alt-right

    Decoding Musk’s political views and tracking how they have changed over time is a complex exercise. He’s hard to pin down, largely by design.

    Musk’s current X feed, for example, is a bewildering mix of far-right conspiracy theories about immigration, clips of neoliberal economist Milton Friedman warning about the dangers of inflation, and advertisements for Tesla.

    Historically, Musk professes to have been a left libertarian. He says he voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

    Musk claims that over time, the Democratic party has moved further to the left, leaving him feeling closer politically to the Republican party.

    Key to Musk’s political shift, at least by his own account, is his estrangement from his transgender daughter, Vivian Jenna Wilson.

    After Vivian’s transition, Musk claimed she was “dead, killed by the woke mind virus”. She is very much alive.

    He’s since repeatedly signalled his opposition to transgender rights and gender-affirming care, and diversity, equity and inclusion policies more broadly.

    However, if the mere existence of a trans person in his family was enough to cause a political meltdown, Musk was clearly already on a trajectory towards far-right politics.

    Rather than responding to a shift in the Democratic Party, it makes more sense to understand Musk’s changing politics as part of a much broader recent phenomenon known as as “the libertarian to alt-right pipeline”.

    The political science, explained

    Libertarianism has historically tended to be divided between left-wing and right-wing forms.

    Left libertarians support economic policies of limited government, such as cutting taxes and social spending, and deregulation more broadly. This is combined with progressive social policies, such as marriage equality and drug decriminalisation.

    By contrast, right libertarians support the same set of economic policies, but hold conservative social views, such as opposing abortion rights and celebrating patriotism.

    Historically, the Libertarian Party in the United States adopted an awkward middle ground between the two poles.

    The past decade, though, has seen the Libertarian Party, and libertarianism more generally, move strongly to the right. In particular, many libertarians have played leading roles in the alt-right movement.

    The alt-right or “alternative right” refers to the recent resurgence of far-right political movements opposing multiculturalism, gender equality and diversity, and supporting white nationalism.

    The alt-right is a very online movement, with its leading activists renowned for internet trolling and “edgelording” – that is, the posting of controversial and confronting content to deliberately stoke controversy and attract attention.

    Though some libertarians have resisted the pull of the alt-right, many have been swept along the pipeline, including prominent leaders in the movement.

    Making sense of Musk

    While this discussion of theory may seem abstract, it helps to understand what Musk’s values are (beneath the chaotic tweets and Nazi salutes).

    In economic terms, Musk remains a limited-government libertarian. He advocates cutting government spending, reducing taxes and repealing regulation – especially regulations that put limits on his businesses.

    His formal role in the Trump administration as head of the “Department of Government Efficiency”, also known as DOGE, is targeted at these goals.

    Musk has suggested that in cutting government spending, he will particularly target diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. This is the alt-right influence on display.

    Alt-right sensibilities are most evident, however, in Musk’s online persona.

    On X, Musk has deliberately stoked controversy by boosting and engaging with white nationalists and racist conspiracy theories.

    For example, he has favourably engaged with far-right politicians advocating for the antisemitic “Great Replacement theory”. This theory claims Jews are encouraging mass migration to the global north as part of a deliberate plot to eliminate the white race.

    More recently, Musk has endorsed the far-right in Germany. He’s also shared videos from known white supremacists outlining the racist “Muslim grooming gangs” conspiracy theory in the United Kingdom.

    Whether Musk actually believes these outlandish racist conspiracy theories is, in many ways, irrelevant.

    Rather, Musk’s public statements are better understood as reflecting philosopher Harry Frankfurt’s famous definition of “bullshit”. For Frankfurt, “bullshit” refers to statements made to impress or provoke in which the speaker is simply not concerned with whether the statement is actually true.

    Much of Musk’s online persona is part of a deliberate alt-right populist strategy to stoke controversy, upset “the left”, and then claim to be a persecuted victim when criticised.

    Theory vs practice

    Though Musk’s public statements might fit nicely into contemporary libertarianism, there are always contradictions when putting ideology into practice.

    For example, despite Musk’s oft-stated preference for limited government, it’s well documented that his companies have received extensive subsidies and support from various governments.

    Musk will expect this special treatment to continue under a quintessentially transactional president such as Trump.

    The vexed issue of immigration also presents some contradictions.

    Across the campaign, both Musk and Trump repeatedly criticised immigration to the US. Reprising the themes of the far-right Great Replacement theory, Musk claimed illegal immigration was a deliberate plot by Democrats to “replace” the existing electorate with “compliant illegals”.

    However, after the election Musk has argued Trump should preserve categories of skilled migration such as the H1-B visas. This angered more explicit white supremacists, such as Trump advisor Laura Loomer.

    Musk’s motives in arguing for the visas are not humanitarian. H1-B visas allow temporary workers to enter the country for up to six years, making them entirely dependent on the sponsoring company. It’s a situation some have called “indentured servitude”.

    These visas have been used heavily in the technology sector, including in companies owned by both Musk and Trump.

    An unsteady alliance

    So what might we expect from Musk now that he has both political office and influence?

    Musk’s stated aim of using DOGE to cut $2 trillion from the US budget would represent an unprecedented transformation of government. It also seems highly unlikely.

    Instead, expect Musk to focus on creating controversy by cutting DEI initiatives and other politically sensitive programs, such as support for women’s reproductive rights.

    Musk will clearly use his political influence to look after the interests of his companies. Shares in Tesla surged to record highs following Trump’s re-election, suggesting investors believe Musk will be a major financial beneficiary of the second Trump administration.

    Finally, Musk will undoubtedly use his new position to remain in the public eye. This last part might lead Musk into conflict with another expert in shaping the media cycle – Trump himself.

    Musk has already reportedly fallen out with Vivek Ramaswamy, who will now no longer co-lead DOGE with Musk.

    Exactly how stable the alliance between Trump and Musk is, and whether the egos and interests of the two billionaires can continue to coexist, remains to be seen.

    If the alliance persists, it will be a key factor in shaping what many are terming the emergence of a “new gilded age” of political corruption and soaring inequality.

    Henry Maher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Elon Musk now has an office in the White House. What’s his political game plan? – https://theconversation.com/elon-musk-now-has-an-office-in-the-white-house-whats-his-political-game-plan-248011

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Online privacy policies can be 90,000 words long. Here are 3 ways to simplify them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Andreotta, Lecturer, School of Management and Marketing, Curtin University

    Rokas Tenys/Shutterstock

    Think about the last app you downloaded. Did you read every word of the associated privacy policy? If so, did you fully understand it?

    If you said “no” to either of these questions, you are not alone. Only 6% of Australians claim to read all the privacy policies that apply to them.

    Don’t blame yourself too much, though. Privacy policies are often long – sometimes up to 90,000 words – and hard to understand. And there may be hundreds that apply to the average internet user (one for each website, app, device, or even car you use).

    Regular reviews are also required. In 2023, for example, Elon Musk’s X updated its privacy policy to include the possibility of collecting biometric data.

    For these reasons, some privacy scholars have argued that it’s nearly impossible for us to properly manage how our personal data are collected and used online.

    But even though it might be hard to imagine, we can regain control over our data. Here are three possible reforms to online privacy policies that could help.

    1. Visuals-based privacy policies

    One way to shorten privacy policies is by replacing some text with visuals.

    Recently, the Australian bank Bankwest developed a visual-style terms and conditions policy to explain one of its products. A consulting engineering company also used visuals in its employment contract.

    There is evidence that suggests this promotes transparency and helps users understand the contents of a policy.

    Could visuals work with online privacy policies? I think companies should try. Visuals could not only shorten online privacy policies, but also make them more intelligible.

    2. Automated consent

    Adding visuals won’t solve all the problems with privacy policies, as there would still be too many to go through. Another idea is to automate consent. This essentially means getting software to consent for us.

    One example of this software, currently being developed at Carnegie Melon
    University in the United States, is personalised privacy assistants. The software promises to:

    learn our preferences and help us more effectively manage our privacy settings across a wide range of devices and environments without the need for frequent interruption.

    In the future, instead of reading through hundreds of polices, you might simply configure your privacy settings once and then leave the accepting or rejecting of polices up to software.

    The software could raise any red flags and make sure that your personal data are being collected and used only in ways that align with your preferences.

    The technology does, however, raise a series of ethical and legal issues that will need to be wrestled with before widespread adoption.

    For example, who would be liable if the software made a mistake and shared your data in a way that harmed you? Furthermore, privacy assistants would need their own privacy policies. Could users easily review them, and also track or review decisions the assistants made, in a way that was not overwhelming?

    3. Ethics review

    These techniques may have limited success, however, if the privacy policies themselves fail to offer user choices or are deceptive.

    A recent study found that some of the top fertility apps had deceptive privacy policies. And in 2022, the Federal Court of Australia fined Google for misleading people about how it used personal data.

    To help address this, privacy policies could be subject to ethical review, in much the same way that researchers must have their work reviewed by ethics committees before they are permitted to conduct research.

    If a policy was found to be misleading, lacked transparency, or simply failed to offer users meaningful options, then it would fail to get approval.

    Would this really work? And who would be included in the ethics committee? Further, why would companies subject their policies to external review, if they were not required to do so by law?

    These are difficult questions to answer. But companies who did subject their polices to review could build trust with users.

    In 2022, the Federal Court of Australia fine Google for misleading people about how it used personal data.
    JHVEPhoto/Shutterstock

    Testing the alternatives

    In 2024, Choice revealed that several prominent car brands, such as Tesla, Kia, and Hyundai, collect people’s driving data and sell it to third-party companies. Many people who drove these cars were not aware of this.

    How might the above ideas help?

    First, if privacy polices had visuals, data collection and use practices could be explained to users in easier-to-understand ways.

    Second, if automated consent software was being used, and users had a choice, the sharing of such driving data could be blocked in advance, without users even having to read the policy, if that was what they preferred. Ideally, users could pre-configure their privacy preferences, and the software could do the rest. For example, automated consent software could indicate to companies that users do not give consent for their driving data to be sold for advertising purposes.

    Third, an ethics review committee may suggest that users should be given a choice about whether to share driving data, and that the policy should be transparent and easy to understand.

    Some car companies, such as Tesla, collect people’s driving data and sell it to third-party companies.
    Jure Divich/Shutterstock

    Benefits of being transparent

    Recent reforms to privacy laws in Australia are a good start. These reforms promise to give Australians a legal right to take action over serious privacy violations, and have a greater focus on protecting children online.

    But many of the ways of empowering users will require companies to go beyond what is legally required.

    One of the biggest challenges will be motivating companies to want to change.

    It is important to keep in mind there are benefits of being transparent with users. It can help build trust and reputation. And in an era where consumers have become more privacy conscious, here lies an opportunity for companies to get ahead of the game.

    Adam Andreotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Online privacy policies can be 90,000 words long. Here are 3 ways to simplify them – https://theconversation.com/online-privacy-policies-can-be-90-000-words-long-here-are-3-ways-to-simplify-them-247095

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Wanting to ‘return to normal’ after a disaster is understandable, but often problematic

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Richardson, Senior Lecturer and Deputy Director, Te Puna Ako Centre for Tertiary Teaching and Learning, University of Waikato

    Media coverage of the recent fires in Los Angeles showed the heartbreaking damage in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere across Los Angeles County. People lost not only their houses but also the thriving communities of which they had been part.

    What was quickly apparent was the desire to rebuild. People often want their lives to bounce back from every crisis or disaster and to recreate what they have lost.

    And this points to a broader issue that emerges after many natural disasters. People want to rebuild and return to normal when, in the face of an increasingly volatile climate, the best option may be to adapt and change.

    There is a tension between a common understanding of personal resilience and the resilience of complex adaptive systems such as cities. People have a psychological and social need for stability and permanence, but all complex systems are resilient only because they adapt when forced to.

    In New Zealand, the same tension emerged in the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle. Ahead of the second anniversary of the devastating cyclone – and as Northland is battered, yet again, by severe weather and flooding – New Zealanders need to ask how we can balance our personal resilience and need for stability while also acknowledging the need for a managed retreat.

    The long history of fires in Los Angeles

    In his essay The Case for Letting Malibu Burn, writer Mike Davis outlines how fire is an inescapable part of Los Angeles history and how after each fire the city has always been rebuilt.

    Davis’ work focuses on Los Angeles but raises important questions about the future of all communities facing increasing risks from climate change.

    The repeated rebuilds in Los Angeles have created an expectation that the city will be rebuilt after every fire.

    But the city also has unique physical features that make such fires inescapable: the combination of the Santa Ana winds blowing from the desert with chaparral vegetation growing in the steep and dry canyons.

    Fire has always been a natural part of the cycle of regeneration in this landscape. What has changed is the encroachment of human dwellings at the foot of these hills and canyons, and into them. Between 1990 and 2020, nearly 45% of the homes built in California were placed in these high fire risk areas.

    Climate change is also making both localised rain events and droughts in the Los Angeles environs more extreme, creating larger and then drier fuel loads.

    From a systems perspective, a managed retreat from the areas of worst fire risk makes sense. The resilience of cities requires them to be adaptive.

    Yet adaptation in Los Angeles is largely not happening. After previous fires, rebuilding has generally occurred within six years and with minimal to no change in building design or placement. People have found comfort in the idea of “bouncing back” like a rubber ball.

    Pricing in the risk

    There is one group within this complex system which is actually adapting in the face of increasing climate change – in Los Angeles and elsewhere, including in New Zealand.

    Home insurers have drastically raised premiums in Los Angeles, or removed cover entirely from many homeowners, to cover ever-growing losses. The insurance bill for these recent fires is predicted to be US$30 billion and the frequency and cost of such climate disasters is increasing.

    Together, the 2023 Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle cost insurers more than NZ$3.5 billion. The cost of insurance in New Zealand rose by 14% in 2024, significantly outpacing general consumer price inflation.

    In system terms, increased insurance premiums represent some of the adaptive capacity of a community that insists on rebuilding in the face of increasing risks.

    In economic terms, you can also think of insurance premiums as a market signal which is pricing the ever-increasing risk of disaster into the cost of living in such fire or flood zones.

    Accepting risk or accepting change in NZ

    The approaching second anniversary of Cyclone Gabrielle and the ongoing debate over managed retreat demonstrates the same tension in Aotearoa New Zealand between increasing climate risks and our very human need to rebuild and restore what we have lost.

    City and regional councils are facing questions about whether to build (or rebuild) in high-risk areas.

    But with two thirds of our population living in flood risk areas and both flood risks and insurance costs increasing, how many times can New Zealand rebuild in these risky areas?

    In the end, we need to remember that a crucial, and sometimes overlooked, element of psychological resilience is acceptance of change.

    In a world of accelerating climate change and related disasters this is increasingly the more realistic response.

    Anthony Richardson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Wanting to ‘return to normal’ after a disaster is understandable, but often problematic – https://theconversation.com/wanting-to-return-to-normal-after-a-disaster-is-understandable-but-often-problematic-247884

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s ‘free speech’ vision comes at expense of press freedom

    Pacific Media Watch

    Among his first official acts on returning to the White House, President Donald Trump issued an executive order “restoring freedom of speech and ending federal censorship”.

    Implicit in this vaguely written document: the United States is done fighting mis- and disinformation online, reports the Paris-based global media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF).

    Meanwhile, far from living up to the letter or spirit of his own order, Trump is fighting battles against the American news media on multiple fronts and has pardoned at least 13 individuals convicted or charged for attacking journalists in the 6 January 2021 insurrection.

    An RSF statement strongly refutes Trump’s “distorted vision of free speech, which is inherently detrimental to press freedom”.

    Trump has long been one of social media’s most prevalent spreaders of false information, and his executive order, “Restoring Freedom of Speech and Ending Federal Censorship,” is the latest in a series of victories for the propagators of disinformation online.

    Bowing to pressure from Trump, Mark Zuckerberg, whose Meta platforms are already hostile to journalism, did away with fact-checking on Facebook, which the tech mogul falsely equated to censorship while throwing fact-checking journalists under the bus.

    Trump ally Elon Musk also dismantled the meagre trust and safety safeguards in place when he took over Twitter and proceeded to arbitrarily ban journalists who were critical of him from the site.

    ‘Free speech’ isn’t ‘free of facts’
    “Free speech doesn’t mean public discourse has to be free of facts. Donald Trump and his Big Tech cronies like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are dismantling what few guardrails the internet had to protect the integrity of information,” said RSF’s USA executive director Clayton Weimers.

    “We cannot ignore the irony of Trump appointing himself the chief crusader for ‘free speech’ while he continues to personally attack press freedom — a pillar of the First Amendment — and has vowed to weaponise the federal government against expression he doesn’t like.

    “If Trump means what he says in his own executive order, he could start by dropping his lawsuits against news organisations.”

    Trump recently settled a lawsuit out of court with ABC News parent company Disney, but is still suing the Des Moines Register and its parent company Gannett for publishing a poll unfavourable to his campaign, and the Pulitzer Center board for awarding coverage of his 2016 campaign’s alleged ties with Russia.

    Trump should immediately drop both lawsuits and refrain from launching others while in office.

    After a campaign where he attacked the press on a daily basis, Trump has continued to berate the media and dismissed its legitimacy to critique him.

    During a press conference the day after he took office, Trump reproached NBC reporter Peter Alexander for questions about Trump’s blanket pardons of the January 6th riot participants, saying, “Just look at the numbers on the election.

    “We won this election in a landslide, because the American public is tired of people like you that are just one-sided, horrible people, in terms of crime.”

    An incoherent press freedom policy
     The executive order also flies in the face of his violent rhetoric against journalists.

    The order asserts that during the Biden administration, “the Federal government infringed on the constitutionally protected speech rights of American citizens across the United States in a manner that advanced the government’s preferred narrative about significant matters of public debate.”

    It goes on to state, “It is the policy of the United States to ensure that no Federal Government officer, employee, or agent engages in or facilitates any conduct that would unconstitutionally abridge the free speech of any American citizen.”

    This stated policy, laudable in a vacuum, even if made redundant by the First Amendment, is rendered meaningless by Trump’s explicit threats to weaponise the government against the media, which have recently included threats to revoke broadcast licenses in political retaliation, investigate news organizations that criticise him, and jail journalists who refuse to expose confidential sources.

    Instead, the policy appears designed to amplify disinformation, which benefits a President of the United States who has proven willing to spread disinformation that furthered his political interests on matters small and large.

    “If Trump is serious about his stated commitment to free speech, RSF suggests he begin by ensuring his own actions serve to protect the free press, rather than censoring or punishing media outlets,” the watchdog said.

    “The United States has seen a steady decline in its press freedom ranking in RSF’s World Press Freedom Index over the past decade to a current ranking of 55th out of 180 countries, with presidents from both parties presiding over this backslide.

    “While Trump is not entirely responsible for the present situation, his frequent attacks on the news media have no doubt contributed to the decline in trust in the media, which has been driven partly by partisan attitudes towards journalism.

    “Trump’s violent rhetoric can also contribute to real-life violence — assaults on journalists nearly doubled in 2024, when his campaign was at its apex, compared to 2023.”

    Pacific Media Watch collaborates with RSF.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ and BlinkPay to accelerate open banking in New Zealand

    Source: BNZ statements

    BNZ today announced it has joined forces with leading New Zealand open banking fintech BlinkPay.

    The investment will enable BlinkPay to accelerate and scale its innovation and product development through access to BNZ’s resources and expertise.

    With BNZ as BlinkPay’s new owner, co-founder Adrian Smith becomes the fintech’s CEO, ensuring BlinkPay retains its own leadership and decision-making, along with its entrepreneurial spirit and startup culture.

    “As a Māori-led business, we bring unique perspective to financial innovation. BNZ understands and values this – and they’re backing our vision while enabling us to retain our startup DNA,” Smith says.

    “Our kaupapa has always been about making financial services work better for all New Zealanders. BNZ’s support gives us the resources to accelerate our mission and help grow the open banking ecosystem across Aotearoa.”

    BNZ CEO Dan Huggins says the investment builds on BNZ’s established leadership in open banking.

    “BNZ has been at the forefront of open banking in New Zealand since 2018, with more than 250,000 customers already benefiting from innovative financial services enabled by BNZ’s open banking technology.

    “This represents the next phase in our journey. With BNZ supporting BlinkPay’s innovation and agility, we can accelerate the development of new products and services that will benefit all New Zealanders.

    “We’re proud to be investing in a team that has proven their ability to innovate and deliver.”The partnership will focus on developing new open banking capabilities that improve financial outcomes for consumers and businesses across Aotearoa New Zealand.

    The post BNZ and BlinkPay to accelerate open banking in New Zealand appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Republican Kimberlyn King-Hinds wins delegate race in CNMI

    By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent

    Kimberlyn King-Hind, from the CNMI Republican Party, won the race for the CNMI’s lone non-voting delegate in the US House of Representatives on Tuesday.

    The delegate position was one of 61 races up for grabs in the 2024 CNMI general elections.

    The former Commonwealth Ports Authority chairwoman and lawyer from Tinian received 4931 votes (40.34 percent) of total ballots cast.

    Democratic Party of the Northern Mariana Islands’ candidate Edwin Propst finished second, 864 votes behind with 4067 (33.27 percent).

    Independent candidates John Oliver Gonzales, James Rayphand, and Liana Hofschneider gained 2282, 665, and 280 votes, respectively.

    Even before the results of the 2024 general elections were certified about 5.20am on Wednesday, Propst conceded defeat and congratulated King-Hinds in a social media post.

    “Congratulations to Kim King-Hinds, delegate-elect. I wish you the very best,” he wrote.

    “To my amazing committee, I cannot thank you enough for your hard work and support. To our supporters, thank you for your votes, messages of support, donations, and kindness. To Daisy and Kiana, Devin, Kaden, and Logan, I love you more than anything in this world. Thank you for always being there for me,” he added.

    Kimberlyn King-Hinds . . . congratulated by her Democratic opponent. Image: RNZ Pacific

    Other electoral results
    In other races, Senate President Edith DeLeon Guerrero, who ran as an independent, lost her Saipan seat to Representative Manny Castro of the Democratic Party, as the latter took 52.89 percent of the votes (5178) compared to the former’s 43 percent (4210).

    For Tinian, incumbent Senator Karl King-Nabors of the GOP ran unopposed and was elected in by 803 voters.

    Incumbent and longtime Senator Paul Manglona, meanwhile, lost his Senate post to fellow independent Ronnie Mendiola Calvo, 476-441.

    There was not much shakeup in the House of Representatives races, as only incumbent Vicente Camacho, a Democrat, among the incumbents lost his seat. Newcomers in the incoming lower house include Elias Rangamar, Daniel Aquino, and Raymond Palacios — all independents.

    Associate Judge Teresita Kim-Tenorio was also retained, receiving 9909 “yes” votes (84.21 percent) compared to 1858 (15.79 percent) “no” votes.

    The US territory also elected members of the CNMI Board of Education and councillors for the municipal councils for Saipan, the Northern Islands, Tinian, and Rota.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How does a jury reach a conclusion? A new SBS show painstakingly recreates details to take us behind the scenes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xanthe Mallett, Forensic Criminologist, University of Newcastle

    SBS

    Juries are the bedrock of common law, and have been used for centuries to decide factual issues before the court.

    Jury research has for years attempted to improve our understanding of how jurors reach a conclusion, both individually and as a collective. But we have very little understanding of how each specific case is decided: in Australia, jurors are banned from discussing their deliberations outside of the jury room.

    Predicting the jury’s decision in criminal matters is impossible: the whole system remains totally opaque. This has been evident in a very high-profile case just this year, when a very surprising decision was handed down; I would love to be able to pick that one apart.

    A new show by SBS attempts to demystify the process. The Jury: Death on the Staircase follows the deliberations of 12 jurors as they listen to nine days’ worth of evidence in a real, concluded manslaughter case.

    Observing the trial, and the jury

    The names, dates, locations and images from the original case have been changed to make sure the jurors could not look up the result, and to protect the individuals involved in the real trial. These changes could, of course, alter the jury’s decision-making process.

    Actors are used to re-enact the trial, using transcripts of the original case to simulate the real trial as closely as possible. The jurors are everyday Australians who volunteered to take part in this experiment.

    The case revolves around the death of a man who was found at the bottom of a staircase, in the home he shared with his male partner.

    Other factors the jury attaches relevance to are the 20-year age gap between the deceased and the younger accused man, and the accused is Asian.

    We hear the pre-trial thoughts and motivations of the jurors, and some of the biases and prejudices start to show early on.

    As the trial unfolds, specific aspects of the accused’s personality impress different members of the jury – some finding points of commonality that encourage them to be very sympathetic, others highly sceptical of his innocence. This seems less based on the evidence being heard, and instead reflects directly the personality and life experience of the juror.

    The jurors, like a real jury, come from all walks of life, educational backgrounds, sexualities and ancestral groups. There are some big, dominant voices, as well as others who are much quieter and more circumspect.

    What surprised me while watching was that many of the impressions the jury discuss – and their interpretations of them – aren’t based on the evidence at all. They’re watching the accused, trying to get a read on his guilt or innocence from his body language, where he looks at certain times.

    None of them are body language experts, but they seem to think they can reliably extrapolate how he is feeling from observing him.

    Some of them also speculate wildly as to what could have happened, and why.
    If that’s what real jurors do, that’s worrying.

    I have some questions

    It’s hard to know how closely the producers mirrored the original case: was it a homosexual relationship, was there a large age gap, was the accused Asian?

    These factors are important, because the jury puts weight on them and hypothesises with these in mind.

    Another big question for me was how they chose the members of the jury. Was it random? If it was, they do not reflect the personalities of the original jurors and it is very clear that personality and life experience were heavily influential in each person’s response to the case.

    The question was asked by one of the jurors: what if they reach a different conclusion than the original, genuine jury? What would that mean for the accused?

    My sense was they were wondering if they found him not guilty of manslaughter, would that have any legal implication.

    The answer is no.

    It’s impossible to truly replicate a case. I would even suggest the same jury could reach a different conclusion at a different time, depending on what had happened in their lives recently and other external factors. Regardless of what result this jury reached, it could not hurt or help the real accused person.

    But it is certainly an interesting program, and will give the viewer an insight into what factors most influence jurors.

    It might also scare them slightly. We like to think juries make their decision based on the evidence put before them, but that does not appear to be the case, at least certainly not early on in the trial process.

    The jurors focused on how the accused lived their life, and judged him accordingly – both positively and negatively. The scientist in me feels that it would be great to repeat this experience, to see if the same or a different result was achieved under these, somewhat controlled conditions.

    I’d also love to see more access to real jurors, post decision: that is the only true way to gauge their thoughts and impressions as they work through a case. But as that is unlikely, this series is as close as we’ll get. It is worth a watch if you’re interested in how juries reach their – sometimes apparently inexplicable – decisions.

    The Jury: Death on the Staircase is on SBS and SBS On Demand from today.

    Xanthe Mallett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How does a jury reach a conclusion? A new SBS show painstakingly recreates details to take us behind the scenes – https://theconversation.com/how-does-a-jury-reach-a-conclusion-a-new-sbs-show-painstakingly-recreates-details-to-take-us-behind-the-scenes-242114

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: US presidential election holds high stakes for Pacific relations

    PMN Pacific Mornings

    With Election Day for one of the most consequential United States presidential races in recent history underway, Pasifika communities on both sides of the Pacific Ocean are considering how a new administration could impact US-Pacific relations.

    Roy Tongilava, a public policy professional and Pacific community advocate in the United States, hopes to see improved US-Pacific relations under either a Harris or Trump administration.

    “I’m not an expert in foreign affairs, but my hope would be that either a presidency under Harris or under Trump would continue to build those relations, to build those investments, to really help not only combat climate change but also to really aid in the Pacific development, which is inherently connected to what I believe is the Pacific Islander American experience,” he said.

    Pacific commentators Roy Tongilava (left) and Christian Malietoa-Brown . . . interviewed by Pacific Media Network’s Pacific Mornings programme. Image: PMN

    New Zealand political commentator and former chair of the National Party’s Pacific Blues group, Christian Malietoa-Brown, is backing Donald Trump in the presidential race.

    He says the Pacific is caught in a “tug-of-war” between major powers like the US and China, with Australia playing an increasingly significant role.

    “For me, I think in terms of long-term investment, Trump likes to prevent war by showing strength . . .  I think they [the US] will strategically put some investments here just because they don’t want China running around too much in this area for defence reasons.

    “Under the Biden administration, we saw record investment down this way in the Pacific region, obviously to try and push away China’s influence in the region,” Malietoa-Brown says.

    Picking a big player
    “So you have China, you have America, you have Russia, you have India that’s coming up big,” Malietoa-Brown said.

    “And if I had to pick a big player to be in charge of the world, I would pretty much stick to America as it is right now, because that’s the devil we know, rather than someone else that we don’t know. And that’s probably purely a selfish thing.”

    Tongilava agrees that the Joe Biden administration has been positive for the Pacific region in terms of investment.

    “The Biden administration has pumped record investment into the Pacific to a number of things, infrastructure, education, all of that. Ultimately, though, to try and cool off and push away China’s advances towards this region.

    “We’ve seen Vice-President Harris during her time as Vicep-President really commit to climate change as well as building relations within the Pacific region,” he said.

    Education concerns
     For Tongilava, who is part of the South Pacific Islander Organization (SPIO), a nonpartisan non-profit organisation that champions education and workforce development for Pacific youth, this election has serious implications for youth.

    “Our mission is laser focused on enhancing college access, college retention, and degree completion for Native Hawai’ian and Pacific Islander students throughout our college systems,” Tongilava said.

    “A lot of our work has focused on expanding educational opportunity and workforce development for young Pacific Islander students.

    “In terms of education, I think it is crucial that Pacific Islanders turn out today in support of the policies specifically that may hinder or create opportunity for their families and for their communities,” Tongilava said.

    He said it was crucial that Pacific Islanders vote in support of the specific policies that might hinder or create opportunities for their families and their communities.

    Tongilava is concerned about Trump’s proposal to dismantle the US Department of Education, noting that such a move would disproportionately harm communities like the Pacific Islanders, who often rely on federal support for educational programmes.

    “This raises additional questions around what role does the federal government play within our school systems here within states and at the local level. For many Pacific Islander Americans, we live in under-resourced communities,” Tongilava said.

    Republished from Pacific Media Network with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 5 Indian films from the 2024 Adelaide Film Festival that blew me away

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yanyan Hong, PhD Candidate in Communication and Media Studies, University of Adelaide

    In The Belly of a Tiger/IMDB

    This year’s Adelaide Film Festival (AFF2024) had something truly exciting laying in wait: a spotlight on Indian cinema.

    While many people are familiar with Bollywood, most don’t know about the vast film industry that exists beyond it. And this is no small market; India is currently the most populated country in the world.

    This year’s festival delivered a variety of Indian films from regions and directors that remain underrepresented. From award-winning tales, to a poetic nature documentary, to a sweet coming-of-age story from the North East, the program promises to challenge and expand our understanding of what Indian cinema can offer.

    Of all the films I saw, these five spoke to me the most.

    All We Imagine As Light

    Payal Kapadia’s Cannes Grand Prix winner, All We Imagine as Light, was the film that I’d most looked forward to – and it turned out to be as dreamlike as its title promised.

    It’s an ode to the city of Mumbai, also known as India’s “dream-making factory” (and where Bollywood is based). Mumbai is where Indians from all states and of all languages come to fulfil their dreams.

    The story follows three female nurses, Prabha (Kani Kusruti), Anu (Divya Prabha) and Parvaty (Chhaya Kadam), who come to Mumbai looking for a better life. Yet they find themselves struggling to belong in a city that refuses to embrace them.

    As Kapadia explains: “The film is about not being able to see a way out when one is surrounded by darkness […] that hope doesn’t exist if you have never seen it.”

    Kapadia’s storytelling brings a kind of realism rarely seen in popular Indian cinema – not through larger-than-life spectacle or the resplendent city skyline, but through the quiet intimacy of shared apartments, poetry booklets, dinner dates, and small joys and defeats. It is simply soulful.

    The film blends themes of female solidarity and friendship with heavier topics such as religious differences, migrant struggles, language barriers and class divides – yet it feels as gentle as rain on skin.

    While some have critiqued the film for being too slow (and I admittedly felt this at times), this is exactly how Kapadia managed to turn a city with more than 21 million people into a place that feels completely lonely.

    Second Chance

    Unlike the vibrant image of India we’re so used to – full of colour, song and lively dances – Subhadra Mahajan’s black-and-white film Second Chance is nothing short of breathtaking.

    Set in the snowy peaks of Himachal Pradesh, the film follows 25-year-old Nia (Dheera Johnson) as she retreats to her family’s Himalayan holiday home after a painful breakup and the emotional toll of taking abortion pills. Mahajan captures the stark, quiet beauty of the Himalayan landscape, where time slows down and silence seems to heal.

    The film is shot among the snow-covered Himalayan mountains.
    Adelaide Film Festival

    There, she finds unexpected companions through Bhemi and Sunny. Bhemi, the gentle 70-year-old mother-in-law of the home’s caretaker, is played with a captivating authenticity by Thakra Devi, a local resident and non-professional actress. Sunny (Kanav Thakur) is Bhemi’s playful and curious 8-year-old grandson.

    At the top of the world, Second Chance crafts a beautiful and intimate space where we are invited to see that there’s always another chance to find oneself – a chance as infinite and expansive as the snow-capped peaks themselves.

    Nocturnes

    It’s rare to see films such as Second Chance, which are made in the Himalayas. But it’s even rarer to see an Indian nature documentary such as Nocturnes. The film follows a scientist named Mansi and her indigenous assistants as they chase down thousands of Himalayan moths (particularly Hawk moths).

    Directed by Anirban Dutta and Anupama Srinivasan, Nocturnes captures the hypnotic rhythms of field study (something that particularly resonates with me as a researcher).

    Fluttering wings and insect trills create a serene soundscape. The close-ups of the moths – their textures, patterns and slight vibrating movements – are fascinating to observe – as the the wider shots of the scientists’ glowing setup in the darkened forest, which drew me in like a moth to light.

    Nocturnes is a thoughtful, meditative film that reminds us of how our destruction of the climate can impact these ancient residents of Earth. As the voiceover reminds is, “we most likely cannot survive what the moths have been through.”

    Boong

    Right from the opening scene, Boong pulled me in with unexpected laughs. The titular character Boong (Gugun Kipgen) is a schoolboy who, along with his best friend Raju (Angom Sanamatum), embarks on a risky journey along India’s militarised eastern border to bring Boong’s absent father back home.

    In one scene, the playful prankster, Boong, aims his slingshot at his school’s entryway sign.
    IMDB

    As they make their way, we’re treated to views from Manipur, India’s North East state near Myanmar, which we rarely see in mainstream Indian cinema. Boong itself tips its hat to Bollywood a few times, such as when Raju shows his excitement upon hearing the song Lungi Dance from the Bollywood blockbuster Chennai Express (2013), or when the the chief villager’s secret home cinema is adorned with Hindi film posters.

    Director Lakshmipriya Devi does a fantastic job showcasing the region’s vibrant yet complex culture. All the while, she highlights some surprising lesser-known facts, such as how Hindi films were banned in Manipur for years in the name of protecting local culture, language and the regional film industry.

    While Manipur’s cinematic potential is still largely untapped, Boong is a brilliant step.

    In the Belly of a Tiger

    Of the 23 films I saw at AFF2024, In the Belly of a Tiger was a precious gem that stayed with me.

    This multinational production (which just won the festival’s Feature Fiction Award) tells a heart-wrenching story of an elderly and desperately poor couple faced with an impossible choice: which one of them will go into the forest to be eaten by a tiger so the other can receive government compensation?

    It’s a deeply spiritual and painfully pragmatic exploration of power, sacrifice, love and hope.

    The symbolism of the film’s poster hints at its larger themes. Just as Hindu mythology posits the universe emerged from Lord Vishnu’s navel, unfolding like the petals of a lotus, we see how fate, too, blossoms unevenly.

    The film’s poster signposts some of its larger themes.
    IMDB

    In the film, a poor family in a remote village longs for a better life in the next world, holding tightly to memories of young, innocent love.

    Shooting in Hindi, and featuring mostly non-professional actors, In the Belly of a Tiger is both authentic and ambitious. Indian director and cinematographer Jatla Siddhartha collaborated with some of the biggest names in cinema to bring the story to life, including multiple Oscar-winning sound designer Resul Pookutty (who also worked on Slumdog Millionaire).

    The music is composed by Japan’s Umebayashi Shigeru, known for his work on Wong Kar-wai’s In the Mood for Love (2000) and The Grandmaster (2013). Shigeru’s melodies bring an emotional and magical tone to what is, at its heart, a truly Indian story.

    More dreams to share

    The films I’ve highlighted here represent some of the most exciting and thought-provoking works coming out of India today.

    While the Mumbai-based Bollywood industry is undeniably a huge part of Indian culture, it’s only one piece of the puzzle. These films paint a far richer and more diverse portrait of India, its people, its struggles and its beauty.

    They also showcase a glorious future for Indian cinema – one which promises to carry the dreams of a nation eager to share its stories with the world.

    Yanyan Hong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 5 Indian films from the 2024 Adelaide Film Festival that blew me away – https://theconversation.com/5-indian-films-from-the-2024-adelaide-film-festival-that-blew-me-away-242118

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: High Court strikes down government’s law to monitor former immigration detainees

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The High Court has struck down the Albanese government’s law enabling it to impose ankle bracelets and curfews on the more than 200 non-citizens it released from immigration detention in 2023 after  an earlier decision by the court.

    Wednesday’s decision, by a five-two majority, found the measures “punitive” and an infringement of the constitution.

    The plaintiff in the case  was a stateless Eritrean who was released from immigration detention last November. He was later charged  with six offences  for failing to comply with his monitoring and curfew conditions. The charges are  pending  in the Magistrates’ Court of Victoria.  His earlier criminal record includes a 2017 conviction for offences of burglary and causing injury.

    Legislation for the measures was rushed through parliament a year ago, in response to the release of the detainees, many of whom had serious criminal records, including for murder, rape and assault.

    During consideration of the bill, the opposition forced the government to toughen it – from providing for the measures only where needed for community safety, to saying the minister must act unless satisfied the person did not pose a risk.

    At the time constitutional experts such as Anne Twomey, from the University of Sydney,nas well as the Senate Standing Committee for the Scrutiny of Bills expressed doubts about the legislation.

    Twomey wrote: “the effects of the political bidding war to be seen as the ‘toughest’ and most punitive  towards non-citizens will make it infinitely harder for Commonwealth lawyers to defend these measures in the courts”.

    The opposition said in a statement the effect of the court decision would be that “215 dangerous non-citizen offenders including 12 murderers, 66 sex offenders, 97 people convicted of assault, 15 domestic violence perpetrators and others will be free in the community without any monitoring or curfews”.

    It said since being released, 65 of these people had been charged with new state or territory offences, with 45 remaining free in the community.

    The government should immediately bring in fresh legislation to deal with the situation, the opposition said.

    Surprisingly, the opposition did not ask the government in the House of Representatives question time what it planned to do.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. High Court strikes down government’s law to monitor former immigration detainees – https://theconversation.com/high-court-strikes-down-governments-law-to-monitor-former-immigration-detainees-243027

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Elon Musk’s flood of US election tweets may look chaotic. My data reveals an alarming strategy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Graham, Associate Professor in Digital Media, Queensland University of Technology

    As voting booths in the United States close and the results of the presidential election trickle in, tech billionaire Elon Musk has been posting a flurry of tweets on his social media platform, X (formerly Twitter). So too has Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

    At first glance these tweets might appear chaotic and random. But if you take a closer look, you start to see an alarming strategy behind them – one that’s worth paying very close attention to in order to understand the inner workings of the campaign to return Trump to the White House.

    The strategy has two immediate aims. First, to overwhelm the information space and thereby manage attention. Second, to fuel the conspiracy theory that there is a coordinated campaign among Democrats, the media and big tech to steal this election.

    But it’s important to understand that the strategy on X is part of a master strategy of Trump’s campaign: a backup plan in case of a Trump loss, designed to encourage the public to participate in a grand re-wiring of reality via the meta-narrative of widespread voter fraud.

    Overwhelm the information space

    Musk has long been a prominent user of X, even before he became the owner, chief technology officer and executive chairman of the platform.

    But as I reported last week, since he endorsed Trump in July, engagement with his account has seen a sudden and anomalously large increase, raising suspicions as to whether he has tweaked the platform’s algorithms so his content reaches more people.

    This trend has continued in recent days.

    As well as posting on X, earlier today Musk also held a “freeform” live discussion on the platform about the election. It lasted for nearly one and a half hours. Around 1.3 million people tuned in. This is one of many live discussions he has hosted about the election over the past months, including notably with Trump.

    In an information war, everything is about attention management. Platforms are designed to maximise engagement and user attention above and beyond anything else. This core logic of social media is highly exploitable: who controls attention controls the narrative. In Australia, the “Vote No” campaign during last year’s referendum on Indigenous representation in government was a masterclass in attention management.

    By bombarding audiences, journalists, and other key stakeholders with a constant supply of allegations, rumours, conspiracy theories and unverifiable claims, Musk and the Trump campaign eat up all the oxygen of attention. When everyone is focussed on you and what you’re saying, they are distracted from what the other side is saying.

    And Musk and Trump want people to focus on the idea that the election is going to be stolen.

    Fuel the election fraud narrative

    From the beginning of the year, the narrative that the US presidential election is at risk of being defrauded has been steadily gaining steam. But in the past week leading up to election day, it has gone gangbusters.

    For example, starting on October 27, Trump started posting on X using the #TooBigtoRig hashtag. This refers to the idea that Trump will win the election by such a large margin that the result will be incontestable. Up to this point, the #TooBigToRig campaign was driven by Trump supporters. Now, Trump has officially joined – giving it the ultimate legitimacy.

    There has also been a dramatic spike over the last week in posts using similarly themed hashtags such as #ElectionFraud, #ElectionInterference, #VoterFraud and #StopTheSteal.

    Musk himself hasn’t been using these hashtags very much (although replies to him from other users are riddled with them). But he has been posting material that aligns with them. For example, earlier today he retweeted a post which claimed the electronic voting system in the US was insecure. Musk added: “Absolutely”.

    He has also falsely accused Google of encouraging Americans to vote for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

    And as some early results have started trickling in, Musk has posted about Trump’s odds of winning being nearly 70%.

    “The prophecy has been fulfilled,” Musk wrote.

    Participatory disinformation

    In many ways this has all the hallmarks of participatory disinformation. This concept, developed by computer scientist Kate Starbird and colleagues, explains how both ordinary people as well as politicians and influential actors become active participants in spreading false narratives.

    Unlike the top-down model of propaganda, participatory disinformation describes how grassroots activists and regular people – often with strong convictions and genuine intentions – contribute to spreading and evolving narratives that are not grounded in facts. It is a collaborative feedback loop involving both elite framing of issues and collective sensemaking and “evidence” gathering.

    Before war breaks out, there are clear signs of what’s about to unfold, even if a country publicly denies they are preparing for battle. Blood supplies, troops and weaponry are transported to the border in preparation for an invasion.

    The same thing is at play here, except the weapon is us.

    The flood of tweets by Musk and Trump, in particular, is setting the stage for a full-blown participatory disinformation campaign to undermine the election results.

    Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) for his Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, ‘Combatting Coordinated Inauthentic Behaviour on Social Media’. He also receives ARC funding for the Discovery Project, ‘Understanding and combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘ (2024–2027).

    – ref. Elon Musk’s flood of US election tweets may look chaotic. My data reveals an alarming strategy – https://theconversation.com/elon-musks-flood-of-us-election-tweets-may-look-chaotic-my-data-reveals-an-alarming-strategy-243021

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Only 25% of older Queenslanders are aware of the risks heatwaves put on their health – new study

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mehak Oberai, Senior Research Assistant, Ethos Project, School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University

    Los Muertos Crew/Pexels

    Parts of Australia are currently facing extreme heat, with high temperatures set to continue over the coming days.

    Though it’s unclear exactly what the upcoming summer will bring, climate change means Australian summers are getting hotter. Even this year in August we saw temperatures around 40°C in parts of the country.

    Heatwaves aren’t just uncomfortable – they can be deadly. Health emergencies related to extreme heat place significant strain on our health-care systems, with data showing increased ambulance callouts and hospital presentations during these periods.

    Although heatwaves can affect everyone, older adults are particularly at risk. But our new research has found older Queenslanders don’t necessarily believe heat poses a risk to their health. And this affects how they respond to emergency warnings.

    Older people and the heat

    Ageing brings physiological changes, including reduced ability to regulate body temperature, which can put older people at increased risk of issues such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

    Heat exposure can also worsen the symptoms of existing conditions, such as heart disease, lung disease or kidney disease, which are more common in older people.

    The risk is even more pronounced for older people who live in poor quality housing, are economically disadvantaged, or are socially isolated.

    A report from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare shows that, of 2,150 hospitalisations due to extreme heat between 2019 and 2022, 37% were among people aged 65 and older (who make up around 16% of the population).

    So there’s an urgent need to prioritise the health of older Australians as the country braces for more intense and prolonged heatwaves in the future.

    When the weather is hot, older people are at greater risk of health complications.
    Kleber Cordeiro/Shutterstock

    Early warning systems

    As we’ve learned more about the risks of heatwaves, there’s been an increased focus on developing population-based early warning systems. These systems play a crucial role in encouraging people to adopt heat-protective behaviours such as staying hydrated, avoiding strenuous physical activity when temperatures are high, and wearing loose or light clothing.

    Queensland is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to heatwaves. Since 2015, heatwave warnings have been part of the state’s heatwave subplan, which sets out strategies for managing and mitigating the impacts of extreme heat events.

    These warnings involve alerts about upcoming high temperatures, and advice on staying cool. They come as notifications through the Bureau of Meterology’s weather app or via media outlets or social media. However, it’s not clear whether these warnings are reaching those most at risk.

    As part of a broader project on extreme heat and older people, we surveyed 547 Queenslanders aged 65 and over to understand their perceptions of heat risks and to determine if heatwave warnings were reaching them.

    We also wanted to know what factors influence how they receive and respond to these warnings, with a view to understanding how we can improve heatwave warnings for this group.

    What we found

    Only 25% of respondents were aware of the potential consequences of heatwaves on their health. The majority of participants (80%) perceived themselves to be at lower risk compared to others of their age group. This aligns with previous heat-health research which has similarly found older adults often don’t perceive heat as a personal risk.

    While most of the sample (87%) reported having one or more chronic health conditions, 30% were unaware having a chronic health condition increased their vulnerability to heatwaves.

    Several cultural and personal factors may explain why older people don’t think heat poses a danger to them. In Australia, heat is typically seen as a normal and even positive part of life. Heat risk messages are often less urgent than warnings for other natural disasters.

    Previous research has also shown older people tend not to think heat poses a risk to their health.
    Miguel AF/Shutterstock

    We also found nearly half of respondents had not heard a heatwave warning. Of those who had, roughly half took actions to keep themselves cool.

    What stood out from our analysis was that participants’ awareness and actions in response to heatwave warnings were significantly influenced by their knowledge and perceptions of heat risks. Factors such as age, gender and education were not so important.

    Respondents who believed they were at risk were almost twice as likely to hear the warnings, and 3.6 times more likely to take heat protective actions.

    This aligns with other research that highlights the correlation between heat-health risk perception and the efficacy of heatwave warnings.

    One limitation of our research is that we conducted the survey in 2022 during and following a La Nina period, where temperatures are usually lower. So there may have been fewer heatwave warnings throughout the season, potentially reducing participants’ perceptions of heat health risks.

    What needs to change?

    With another hot summer likely ahead, we need to rethink how we communicate about heatwaves. These are more than just hot days. We need to recognise heatwaves as a serious health risk, especially for older people, and effectively communicate that risk to the public.

    This might include using primary health-care professionals such as GPs, nurses and pharmacists to share heat-health information with older patients and their family members, or developing personalised heat action plans for the summer period.

    Text message alerts from the Bureau of Meteorology, along with app notifications, could be a good idea considering some older adults may not have a smartphone or be open to using apps.

    To improve heatwave communication, we also need to explore the barriers and facilitators to heat protective behaviours. This includes considering structural factors (such as housing design), environmental factors (for example, access to shade and cool refuges), individual factors (such as financial constraints or health conditions) and social factors (such as access to family and community support).

    Strengthening communication around heatwaves and health will not only protect individual wellbeing but enhance community resilience as extreme heat continues to affect our lives.

    Mehak Oberai is a Senior Research Assistant working on Ethos project and is also a member of the AAG (Australian Association of Gerontology) Student & Early Career Working Group.

    Ella Jackman is a PhD Candidate at Griffith University and a Research Assistant for the Queensland Heat Health Community of Practice (QHHCoP) and the Ethos Project.

    Shannon Rutherford co-leads the Climate Action Beacon Griffith University funded, Queensland Heat Health Community of Practice and receives funding from Wellcome and NEMA. She is an affiliate member of the HEAL network

    Steven Baker and Zhiwei Xu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Only 25% of older Queenslanders are aware of the risks heatwaves put on their health – new study – https://theconversation.com/only-25-of-older-queenslanders-are-aware-of-the-risks-heatwaves-put-on-their-health-new-study-238875

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The extreme floods which devastated Spain are hitting more often. Is Australia ready for the next one?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Conrad Wasko, ARC DECRA Fellow in Hydrology, University of Sydney

    Spain is still reeling from recent floods in the Valencia region. In some areas, a year’s worth of rain fell in a single day. Sudden torrents raced through towns and cities. Over 200 people are dead. Rapid analysis suggests daily rainfall extremes in this region and season have become twice as common over the last 75 years and become 12% more intense.

    The World Meteorological Organisation has pointed out that climate change is steadily increasing the risk of extreme floods like these. Warmer air can hold more water vapour, about 7% more per degree Celsius of warming. More moisture generally leads to more intense rainfall, and therefore more extreme floods.

    The physics of how temperature influences the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture has been known for close to 200 years. But we’ve learned something worrying more recently. When water vapour condenses to form rain droplets, it releases heat which can fuel stronger convection and boost updrafts of air currents in storms. This means the intensity of extreme rainfall could increase not just 7% per degree of warming, but over twice that rate.

    Last week, CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology released their biennial report on the State of the Climate, which found “heavy short-term rainfall events are becoming more intense”. Australia, the report states, has already warmed 1.5°C since national records began in 1910. In recent years, extreme rains have triggered devastating floods in New South Wales and Queensland.

    The question now is – are we prepared for these more damaging floods? This year, Australia updated the climate change section of Australia’s flood design guidance. But while this will help ensure that future infrastructure is better able to weather extreme floods, our current bridges, roads and stormwater drains have not been built to weather these increases in extreme rainfall. Similarly, our flood planning levels – used to determine where houses, offices, hospitals and so forth can be built – have generally not factored in the reality of the threat.

    More floods and more extreme

    Many of us would have learned about the water cycle in school. Water evaporates from seas and lakes before falling as rain and filling lakes and rivers, which eventually makes it back to the sea.

    Unfortunately, climate change is making this cycle more intense, as detailed in a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Rain is more likely to fall in intense short-duration bursts which are more likely to trigger floods.

    This year alone, we have seen disastrous and deadly floods from extreme storms across the Americas, Asia and Europe. Scientific analysis has showed these floods were more severe due to human-caused climate change.

    Australia is not immune. The devastating northern New South Wales floods of 2022 took 24 lives and ravaged towns such as Lismore. These floods are the most expensive natural disaster to date in Australia, costing A$5.65 billion in damages.

    How do you prepare for worse floods?

    When urban planners set flood planning levels, or engineers begin designing a new bridge or rail line, they have to take floods into account. To do so, they will inevitably reach for the local bible, Australia’s flood design guidance.

    Before 2024, this document allowed for a 5% increase in rainfall intensity per degree of global warming, and generally applied it only to infrastructure intended for a very long lifespan. This clashed with most scientific studies on the topic both globally and in Australia, which showed much greater increases, and that these increases are already being witnessed.

    To provide better flood guidance, we and our colleagues undertook a comprehensive review of over 300 scientific papers covering climate change in Australia and extreme rainfall.

    The review proved we had been underestimating the threat of extreme rains and subsequent floods. Rain events over a 24-hour period leading to flooding are likely to increase at 8% per degree of warming, not 5%. Hourly rainfall extremes are likely increasing even faster, at 15% per degree.

    Worse, these are just the central estimates. The wide range of plausible values suggests some rain events could eclipse these. For daily or longer extreme rains, the range is 2–15%. For hourly or shorter periods, that figure is 7–28% for hourly or shorter duration.

    Over the month of February in 2022, the Lismore region had about 600–800 mm of rain – much more than a normal February, which might see closer to 150 mm on average. These floods took place with just 1.1°C of warming since the pre-industrial period. On our current path, it’s possible the world could warm another 1.5°C or more by the end of this century. If this happens, these rainfall totals could be substantially higher and more likely to cause even worse flood impacts.

    These new figures have now been included in the August update of Australia’s flood design guidance. This is good news. It means future decisions on infrastructure and planning can now be well informed by the latest science on how climate change influences flood risk.

    Over time, this will ensure essential infrastructure can be built to endure worse floods. It will affect the design and construction of everything from local stormwater drains to levees, bridges, culverts and dam spillways.

    Preparing for extreme floods is complex. Pictured: water spilling out from a manhole during Spain’s floods.
    Fernando Astasio Avila/Shutterstock

    Local councils can use it to set the height of floor levels for property development. State and federal decision-makers can use it in planning for responses to flood emergencies.

    Does it mean we can avoid disastrous floods like those in Spain and Lismore? Yes and no. We now have the knowledge and tools to adapt to the increased risk levels already arriving. Yet implementing this will be challenging. In many cases, it will require retrofitting or redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand more intense flooding.

    Climate change is no longer something we can file under “problem for the future”. It’s here already. The flood risks we face today are already substantially worse than 25 years ago, and will continue to worsen. We must accelerate how we plan for extreme, rapid rainfall creating catastrophic floods like those in Spain.

    Conrad Wasko receives funding from The University of Sydney and the Australian Research Council. Conrad has previously received funding from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

    Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne, including through the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the Melbourne Energy Institute.

    Seth Westra is a Professor of Hydrology and Climate Risk at the University of Adelaide, Director of Research for the One Basin Cooperative Research Centre, and Chair of the Systems Cooperative. Seth receives funding from state and federal governments support decision making under hydrological or climatic uncertainty.

    – ref. The extreme floods which devastated Spain are hitting more often. Is Australia ready for the next one? – https://theconversation.com/the-extreme-floods-which-devastated-spain-are-hitting-more-often-is-australia-ready-for-the-next-one-242686

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: US elections: Cook Islands group warns of climate crisis pushback if Trump wins

    By Losirene Lacanivalu of the Cook Islands News

    The leading Cook Islands environmental lobby group says that if Donald Trump wins the United States elections — and he seemed to be on target to succeed as results were rolling in tonight — he will push back on climate change negotiations made since he was last in office.

    As voters in the US cast their votes on who would be the next president, Trump or US Vice-President Kamala Harris, the question for most Pacific Islands countries is what this will mean for them?

    “If Trump wins, it will push back on any progress that has been made in the climate change negotiations since he was last in office,” said Te Ipukarea Society’s Kelvin Passfield.

    “It won’t be good for the Pacific Islands in terms of US support for climate change. We have not heard too much on Kamala Harris’s climate policy, but she would have to be better than Trump.”

    The current President Joe Biden and his administration made some efforts to connect with Pacific leaders.

    Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies senior lecturer Dr Anna Powles said a potential win for Harris could be the fulfilment of the many “promises” made to the Pacific for climate financing, uplifting economies of the Pacific and bolstering defence security.

    Dr Powles said Pacific leaders want Harris to deliver on the Pacific Partnership Strategy, the outcomes of the two Pacific Islands-US summits in 2022 and 2023, and the many diplomatic visits undertaken during President Biden’s presidency.

    Diplomatic relationships
    The Biden administration recognised Cook Islands and Niue as sovereign and independent states and established diplomatic relationships with them.

    The Biden-Harris government had pledged to boost funding to the Green Climate Fund by US$3 billion at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates.

    Harris has said in the past that climate change is an existential threat and has also promised to “tackle the climate crisis with bold action, build a clean energy economy, advance environmental justice, and increase resilience to climate disasters”.

    Dr Powles said that delivery needed to be the focus.

    She said the US Elections would no doubt have an impact on small island nations facing climate change and intensified geopolitics.

    Dr Powles said it came as “no surprise” that countries such as New Zealand and Australia had increasingly aligned with the US, as the Biden administration had been leveraging strategic partnerships with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan since 2018.

    She said a return to Trump’s leadership could derail ongoing efforts to build security architecture in the Pacific.

    Pull back from Pacific
    There are also views that Trump would pull back from the Pacific and focus on internal matters, directly impacting his nation.

    For Trump, there is no mention of the climate crisis in his platform or Agenda47.

    This is in line with the former president’s past actions, such as withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2019, citing “unfair economic burdens” placed on American workers and businesses.

    Trump has maintained his position that the climate crisis is “one of the great scams of all time”.

    Republished with permission from the Cook Islands News and RNZ Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Government to introduce urgent legislation after High Court strikes down law to monitor former immigration detainees

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The High Court has struck down the Albanese government’s law enabling it to impose ankle bracelets and curfews on the more than 200 non-citizens it released from immigration detention in 2023 after  an earlier decision by the court.

    Wednesday’s decision, by a five-two majority, found the measures “punitive” and an infringement of the constitution.

    The plaintiff in the case  was a stateless Eritrean who was released from immigration detention last November. He was later charged  with six offences  for failing to comply with his monitoring and curfew conditions. The charges are  pending  in the Magistrates’ Court of Victoria.  His earlier criminal record includes a 2017 conviction for offences of burglary and causing injury.

    Legislation for the measures was rushed through parliament a year ago, in response to the release of the detainees, many of whom had serious criminal records, including for murder, rape and assault.

    During consideration of the bill, the opposition forced the government to toughen it – from providing for the measures only where needed for community safety, to saying the minister must act unless satisfied the person did not pose a risk.

    At the time constitutional experts such as Anne Twomey, from the University of Sydney,nas well as the Senate Standing Committee for the Scrutiny of Bills expressed doubts about the legislation.

    Twomey wrote: “the effects of the political bidding war to be seen as the ‘toughest’ and most punitive  towards non-citizens will make it infinitely harder for Commonwealth lawyers to defend these measures in the courts”.

    The opposition said in a statement the effect of the court decision would be that “215 dangerous non-citizen offenders including 12 murderers, 66 sex offenders, 97 people convicted of assault, 15 domestic violence perpetrators and others will be free in the community without any monitoring or curfews”.

    It said since being released, 65 of these people had been charged with new state or territory offences, with 45 remaining free in the community.

    Minister for Home Affairs Tony Burke said regulations were being finalised for “an adjusted process” for electronic monitoring and curfews. “I will sign off on these regulations later today.”

    Burke said that on Thursday he would introduce new legislation to support the regulations. That legislation would also strengthen the government’s power to remove to third countries people whose visas had been cancelled.

    “The court decision is not the one the government wanted – but it is one the government has prepared for,” Burke said.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Government to introduce urgent legislation after High Court strikes down law to monitor former immigration detainees – https://theconversation.com/government-to-introduce-urgent-legislation-after-high-court-strikes-down-law-to-monitor-former-immigration-detainees-243027

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Independent Helen Haines says the NACC has had ‘disappointing start’, and the government is pork barrelling

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Trust in politicians is at an all-time low, not only in Australia but across the world. Now more than ever, people are demanding a higher standard for our elected officials.

    The row over flight upgrades and the Qantas lounge has reinforced distrust.

    So has the strong criticism of the head of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, Paul Brereton, in his conduct over referrals from the Robodebt royal commission. The Inspector of the NACC found Brereton, who had a conflict of interest because he knew one of the people, had not properly recused himself from the consideration of whether the NACC should investigate the referrals.

    Independent MP Helen Haines, who holds the Victorian seat of Indi, has long focused on integrity issues, and she joined us on the podcast.

    Haines, who is deputy chair of the parliamentary committee with oversight of the NACC, says the new body – which she strongly believes is surrounded by too much secrecy – has not started well:

    We are just over one year in, but I’d have to say that the National Anti-Corruption Commission has got off to a disappointing start, given the Robodebt incident and the subsequent inquiry by the Inspector.

    The [parliamentary] oversight committee will have the opportunity very soon – in a public hearing on the 22nd of November, when the Commissioner comes before us in regard to the annual report of the NACC – to ask him questions. And I certainly will be giving full consideration to what line of questioning needs to happen in that committee in order to unpack the events of the past year.

    Will that committee make a decision on whether Commissioner Brereton should be asked to resign?

    I think what happens next will be determined by what the committee unpacks in that public hearing. But I think, to be clear, that under the legislation, our committee has powers to review the performance of the Commissioner and Deputy Commissioners. So that’s what we’ll be doing.

    On grant programs, Haines says the Albanese government is pork barrelling, just as the Coalition did:

    It’s a really strong example of the two major parties and the duopoly they hold. They wouldn’t do it if it didn’t work. But there are ways that we can remedy this. I’ve put forward twice in the parliament now a piece of private member’s legislation that would bring an end to pork barrelling. It would mean that eligibility criteria and guidelines by legislation must be published before grant moneys are allocated.

    It would re-institute parliamentary oversight of these grant programs. And it would make sure that in circumstances where the department had recommended particular projects but a minister wished to make a different decision to override that, which may be quite legitimate, but that the minister would need to come into the House and explain that.

    When she is reminded one argument for a vote for an independent in her seat of Indi, when her predecessor Cathy McGowan ran, had been to make it more competitive in attracting promises, she says:

    Now I think that’s regrettable. I think, though, it’s a symptom of the cynicism that everyday citizens feel when the major parties have what they consider safe seats and what they consider marginal seats.

    I think that what I’ve learnt as a member of parliament is that we never fix the system if we remain that cynical. I think we need to say, what’s the problem here? The problem is that the major parties are using taxpayer dollars for political purposes and that, yes, you can feel angry, disappointed and, in fact, so cynical that you take the approaches, as we did in Indi, to say, well, we need to change our representation.

    I’m saying it’s no wonder people buy into that when there’s no remedy. I want to see a remedy.

    On her decision to this week to cancel her membership of the Qantas chairman’s lounge and its Virgin equivalent:

    For me, the potential or perceived conflict of interest or actual conflict of interest that may arise from holding such a membership when I’m a legislator is a risk that I’m not willing to take now.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Independent Helen Haines says the NACC has had ‘disappointing start’, and the government is pork barrelling – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-independent-helen-haines-says-the-nacc-has-had-disappointing-start-and-the-government-is-pork-barrelling-243029

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one.

    The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. He’s estimated to have won Georgia (16 electoral votes) by 2.5% over Democrat Kamala Harris and North Carolina (16) by 3.3%.

    Other key states have not yet been called, but Trump has an 85% probability of winning Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), a 71% chance to win Michigan (15), a 79% chance to win Wisconsin (ten) and an 83% chance to win Arizona (11). There are still no results from Nevada (six).

    If Trump wins all the seven key states in which the “needle” favours him, he will win the Electoral College by a 312–226 margin.

    The needle’s popular vote projection also favours Trump by 1.2%. If Trump wins the popular vote as well as the Electoral College, it will be the first time Republicans have won both since 2004. In 2000 and 2016, Republicans won the Electoral College but not the popular vote.

    The main reasons for Trump’s victory were Joe Biden’s unpopularity, the US economy being only just above average, and record illegal immigration during Biden’s term. I’ve mentioned all these factors in my previous US election articles.

    Abortion was not the vote-shifter Democrats expected. In lower-turnout elections such as the 2022 midterms and byelections, Democrats have performed well owing to voters motivated by abortion. But in this high-turnout presidential election, abortion was marginalised.

    Polls understated Trump across the board, though they were not as bad as they were in 2020. Using Nate Silver’s aggregate of final polls, Trump outperformed his polls in the seven key states by two to three points. This is the third successive time that polls have underestimated Trump.

    In the past, the Selzer Iowa poll has had outlier results that turned out to be accurate. This time the final Selzer poll gave Harris a three-point lead in Iowa, but Trump will win by 13 points according to the needle’s forecast.

    Barack Obama won Florida in both 2008 and 2012, and Trump won it by one to three points in both 2016 and 2020. This year, Trump won Florida by 56–43. He won the heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade county by 55–44. At the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton had defeated Trump in Miami-Dade by 63–34.

    In some states that have nearly finished counting, such as Kentucky, there were swings across the board to Trump compared with 2020. It wasn’t just a rural swing to Trump as there were also swings in urban counties.

    The New York Times said Trump had gained nine to ten points since 2020 in New York, New Jersey and Florida, all racially diverse states.

    The only comfort for Democrats from this election is that the gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College “tipping point” state has almost disappeared, if the needle is right. Democrats will lose the popular vote by 1.2% but Pennsylvania, the tipping point state, by 2.2%. This will be a gap of 1.0%, down from nearly 3.9% in 2020.

    Senate also ugly for Democrats

    Democrats and allied independents held a 51–49 Senate majority coming into this election, but they were defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up for election. Senators have six-year terms with two from each of the 50 states.

    Republicans have gained the Senate with a 51–42 lead over Democrats, after gaining West Virginia and Ohio from Democrats and defending Florida, Nebraska and Texas. Republicans lead Democrats in four more Senate races, so they could win a 55–45 Senate majority.

    All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years. Republicans currently have a 183–155 lead over Democrats. A majority requires 218 seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-poised-to-become-next-us-president-likely-sweeping-all-the-seven-key-states-242766

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Black balls on Sydney beaches are likely ‘fatbergs’ showing traces of human faeces, methamphetamine and PFAS: new analysis

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Beves, Associate Professor of Chemistry, UNSW Sydney

    Jon Beves, CC BY

    The mysterious black balls that washed up on Sydney’s beaches in mid-October were likely lumps of “fatberg” containing traces of human faeces, methamphetamine and PFAS, according to a new detailed analysis of their composition.

    Initial reports suggested the ominous lumps were probably tar balls from an oil spill. However, analysis with a barrage of scientific tests has revealed a more complicated picture.

    The mysterious black balls

    On October 16, the first reports emerged from Coogee Beach in Sydney’s east. Lifeguards reported numerous black spheres on the sand that appeared at first glance to be tar-like.

    Similar sightings were soon reported at nearby Bondi, Bronte, Tamarama and Maroubra beaches, prompting immediate closures and cleanup efforts. Authorities initially feared these could be toxic “tar balls”, leading to health advisories and public warnings.

    Preliminary testing by Randwick Council was consistent with tar balls made up of oil and debris.

    Oil – or something more disgusting?

    We set out to find out exactly what the black balls were made of and where they came from. We ran a wide range of tests and analyses with colleagues from UNSW in collaboration with the Mark Wainwright Analytical Centre and the the environmental forensics arm of the federal Department of Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Water (DCCEEW). We also collaborated with the NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA), and Randwick Council.

    Initial testing, based primarily on results from a technique called solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, suggested the material resembled unrefined oil. However, further testing indicated a different, more disgusting, composition.

    A cross section of one of the balls, showing its sandy coating and surface, some fibres, and the core.
    Jake Ireland, CC BY

    Analysing the elements involved revealed the black goop was mostly carbon. Radiocarbon dating then showed only about 30% of the carbon had a fossil origin, suggesting fossil fuels were not the major component of the balls.

    We also identified significant levels of calcium, and much smaller amounts of various metals. Spectroscopic tests showed signatures in the black balls matching fats, oils and greasy molecules often found in soap scum, cooking oil and food sources. This pointed to human waste.

    PFAS, drugs and signs of faeces

    The next step was to see if we could dissolve the substance in organic solvents. Only about one-third to one-half of the mass dissolved this way.

    We were able to take a closer look at the dissolved part using a technique called mass spectrometry, which identifies molecules by their weight and electric charge. This revealed molecules found in vehicle-grade fuels as well as organic molecules such as fatty acids and glycerides.

    We also identified industrial perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS or “forever chemicals”), steroidal compounds such as norgestrel, antihypertensive medications such as losartan, pesticides, and veterinary drugs. This is consistent with contamination from sewage and industrial runoff.

    The crushed up interior of one ball, ready for testing.
    Jon Beves, CC BY

    There were also signs of human faecal waste, including a cholesterol byproduct called epicoprostanol and residues of recreational drugs including tetrahydrocannabinol (also known as THC, a compound found in the cannabis plant) and methamphetamine. This is consistent with contributions from domestic waste.

    Analysing the part of the mass that we couldn’t dissolve proved more challenging. Here we tried solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance and a method called Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, which uses infrared light to detect chemicals. The results suggested the presence of fats, but they were not definitive.

    Were the blobs lumps of fatberg?

    So what does all this mean? The high levels of fats, oils, greasy molecules and calcium, along with the low solubility, are consistent with a “fatberg”: a congealed mass of fats, oils and greasy molecules that can accumulate in sewage.

    The detection of markers of human fecal matter, medication and recreational drugs suggest the origin may be sewage or other urban effluent. However, while the composition of these black balls suggests they may be similar to fatbergs, we cannot definitively confirm their exact origin.

    The black ball incident does highlight the broader issue of pollution along Sydney’s coastline.

    Recent reports indicate about 28% of monitored swimming sites in New South Wales are prone to pollution. Many receive poor water quality ratings, especially after rain. Beaches such as Gymea Bay, Coogee Beach, Malabar Beach, and Frenchmans Bay have been identified as areas of concern, with advisories against swimming due to contamination from human faecal matter.

    Urban waste pollution

    Analysing and understanding urban waste pollution is not an easy task. It requires a multi-disciplinary approach.

    To unravel the complex composition of the blobs, we used carbon-14 dating, mass spectrometry, elemental analysis and microscopy techniques.

    Even after all we did, we cannot yet draw definitive conclusions regarding the primary source of the blobs. This uncertainty reflects the broader challenges faced by scientists and environmental agencies in tracking and addressing pollution in coastal areas.

    This incident underscores the importance of thorough scientific analysis in understanding environmental issues. By continuing to investigate the sources and composition of such pollutants, we can learn more about how urban waste management affects the health of our coasts.

    This research was led by UNSW researchers, including Associate Professor Jon Beves, Dr Tim Barrows, Dr Martin Bucknall, Professor William Alexander Donald, Dr Albert Fahrenbach, Dr Sarah Hancock, Dr Christopher Hansen, Ms Lisa Hua, Dr Martina Lessio, Dr Chris Marjo, Associate Professor Vinh Nguyen, Dr Martin Peeks, Dr Aditya Rawal, Dr Chowdhury Sarowar, Professor Timothy Schmidt, Dr Jake Violi and Dr Helen Wang.

    Jon Beves receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. He is affiliated with The Greens.

    William Alexander Donald receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the US National Institutes of Health, iCare Dust Diseases Care, Coal Services NSW Health and Safety Trust, as well as industry-funded research contracts.

    – ref. Black balls on Sydney beaches are likely ‘fatbergs’ showing traces of human faeces, methamphetamine and PFAS: new analysis – https://theconversation.com/black-balls-on-sydney-beaches-are-likely-fatbergs-showing-traces-of-human-faeces-methamphetamine-and-pfas-new-analysis-242681

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ni-Vanuatu journalist Doddy Morris balances grief and duty in the aftermath of earthquake

    By Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson

    For Doddy Morris, a journalist with the Vanuatu Daily Post, the 7.3 magnitude earthquake that struck Vanuatu last month on December 17, 2024, was more than just a story — it was a personal tragedy.

    Amid the chaos, Morris learned his brother, an Anglican priest, had died.

    “My mom called me crying and asked, ‘Did your brother die?’. I wasn’t sure and told her I was heading to Vila Central Hospital right away,” he recalled.

    Morris arrived at the hospital to confirm the worst. “My heart sank when I confirmed that my brother had indeed passed away. At that moment, I forgot about my job.”

    Doddy’s brother’s coffin . . . Doddy bids him farewell before the casket is flown to their home island. Image: Doddy Morris The New Atoll

    Despite his grief, Morris joined his remaining brothers at the hospital mortuary that night, staying by their deceased sibling’s side and mourning together. “We were the only ones there. We spent the whole night drinking kava outside while he lay in the cool room,” he said.

    The quake — which claimed 14 lives, injured more than 265 people, and displaced more than 1000 — left an indelible mark on Port Vila and its residents. Infrastructure damage was extensive, with schools, homes, and water reserves destroyed, and the Central Business District (CBD) heavily impacted.

    In the days following the earthquake, Morris returned to his role as a reporter, capturing the unfolding crisis despite the emotional toll. “When the earthquake struck, I thought I was going to die myself,” he said. Yet, minutes after the tremor subsided, he grabbed his camera and rushed to the CBD.

    At the heart of the destruction, he witnessed harrowing scenes. “I was shocked to see the collapsed Billabong building. A body lay covered with a blue tarpaulin, and Pro Rescue teams were trying to save others who were trapped inside,” Morris recounted.

    The lack of a network connection frustrated his efforts to report live, but he pressed on, documenting the damage.

    A month after the disaster, Morris continues to cover the aftermath as Vanuatu transitions from emergency response to recovery. “A month has passed since the earthquake, but the memories remain fresh. We don’t know when Port Vila will return to normal,” he said.

    His photojournalism has been demonstrating the true impact of the earthquake as he continues to capture the mourning of a nation after such a tragic event.

    Doddy Morris’ photojournalism . . . demonstrating the true impact of the earthquake as he continues to capture the mourning of a nation after such a tragic event. Image: Vanuatu Daily Post/The New Atoll

    The earthquake left deep scars, not only on the nation’s infrastructure but also on its people. “Unlike cyclones, which we can predict, prepare for, and survive, earthquakes strike without warning and show no mercy,” Morris said.

    Through grief and uncertainty, Morris remains committed to his work, documenting the resilience of his community and the challenges they face as they rebuild. His reporting serves as a testament to the strength of both the people of Vanuatu and a journalist who continues to bear witness, even in the face of personal loss.

    Journalist Doddy Morris . . . reporting on the traumatic events of the earthquake meant confronting his own grief while documenting the grief of others. Image: The New Atoll

    Reporting on his own community while grappling with personal loss is a reality for many Pacific Island journalists who cover disasters. For Doddy Morris, reporting on the traumatic events of the earthquake meant confronting his own grief while documenting the grief of others.

    Dr Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson is a Pacific journalism trainer with the Dart Center for Journalism and Trauma. She expresses her support for Morris and his colleagues in showing “extraordinary courage and resilience”. This article was first published by The New Atoll and is republished with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: West Papuan outcry over Prabowo’s plan to revive transmigration

    By Victor Mambor in Jayapura

    Just one day after President Prabowo Subianto’s inauguration, a minister announced plans to resume the transmigration programme in eastern Indonesia, particularly in Papua, saying it was needed for enhancing unity and providing locals with welfare.

    Transmigration is the process of moving people from densely populated regions to less densely populated ones in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s most populous country with 285 million people.

    The ministry intends to revitalise 10 zones in Papua, potentially using local relocation rather than bringing in outsiders.

    The programme will resume after it was officially paused in Papua 23 years ago.

    “We want Papua to be fully united as part of Indonesia in terms of welfare, national unity and beyond,” Muhammad Iftitah Sulaiman Suryanagara, the Minister of Transmigration, said during a handover ceremony on October 21.

    Iftitah promised strict evaluations focusing on community welfare rather than on relocation numbers. Despite the minister’s promises, the plan drew an outcry from indigenous Papuans who cited social and economic concerns.

    Papua, a remote and resource-rich region, has long been a flashpoint for conflict, with its people enduring decades of military abuse and human rights violations under Indonesian rule.

    Human rights abuses
    Prabowo, a former army general, was accused of human rights abuses in his military career, including in East Timor (Timor-Leste) during a pro-independence insurgency against Jakarta rule.

    Simon Balagaize, a young Papuan leader from Merauke, highlighted the negative impacts of transmigration efforts in Papua under dictator Suharto’s New Order during the 1960s.

    “Customary land was taken, forests were cut down, and the indigenous Malind people now speak Javanese better than their native language,” he told BenarNews.

    The Papuan Church Council stressed that locals desperately needed services, but could do without more transmigration.

    “Papuans need education, health services and welfare – not transmigration that only further marginalises landowners,” Reverend Dorman Wandikbo, a member of the council, told BenarNews.

    Transmigration into Papua has sparked protests over concerns about reduced job opportunities for indigenous people, along with broader political and economic impacts.

    Apei Tarami, who joined a recent demonstration in South Sorong, Southwest Papua province, warned of consequences, stating that “this policy affects both political and economic aspects of Papua.”

    Human rights ignored
    Meanwhile, human rights advocate Theo Hasegem criticised the government’s plans, arguing that human rights issues are ignored and non-Papuans could be endangered because pro-independence groups often target newcomers.

    “Do the president and vice-president guarantee the safety of those relocated from Java,” Hasegem told BenarNews.

    The programme, which dates to 1905, has continued through various administrations under the guise of promoting development and unity.

    Indonesia’s policy resumed post-independence on December 12, 1950, under President Sukarno, who sought to foster prosperity and equitable development.

    It also aimed to promote social unity by relocating citizens across regions.

    Transmigration involving 78,000 families occurred in Papua from 1964 to 1999, according to statistics from the Papua provincial government. That would equal between 312,000 and 390,000 people settling in Papua from other parts of the country, assuming the average Indonesian family has 4 to 5 people.

    The programme paused in 2001 after a Special Autonomy Law required regional regulations to be followed.

    Students hold a rally at Abepura Circle in Jayapura, the capital of Indonesia’s Papua Province, yesterday to protest against Indonesia’s plan to resume a transmigration programme, Image: Victor Mambor/BenarNews

    Legality questioned
    Papuan legislator John N.R. Gobay questioned the role of Papua’s six new autonomous regional governments in the transmigration process. He cited Article 61 of the law, which mandates that transmigration proceed only with gubernatorial consent and regulatory backing.

    Without these clear regional regulations, he warned, transmigration lacks a strong legal foundation and could conflict with special autonomy rules.

    He also pointed to a 2008 Papuan regulation stating that transmigration should proceed only after the Indigenous Papuan population reaches 20 million. In 2023, the population across six provinces of Papua was about 6.25 million, according to Indonesia’s Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS).

    Gobay suggested prioritising local transmigration to better support indigenous development in their own region.

    ‘Entrenched inequality’
     British MP Alex Sobel, chair of the International Parliamentarians for West Papua, expressed concern over the programme, noting its role in drastic demographic shifts and structural discrimination in education, land rights and employment.

    “Transmigration has entrenched inequality rather than promoting prosperity,” Sobel told BenarNews, adding that it had contributed to Papua remaining Indonesia’s poorest regions.

    Pramono Suharjono, who transmigrated to Papua, Indonesia, in 1986, harvests oranges on his land in Arso II in Keerom regency last week. Image: Victor Mambor/BenarNews]

    Pramono Suharjono, a resident of Arso II in Keerom, Papua, welcomed the idea of restarting the programme, viewing it as positive for the region’s growth.

    “This supports national development, not colonisation,” he told BenarNews.

    A former transmigrant who has served as a local representative, Pramono said transmigration had increased local knowledge in agriculture, craftsmanship and trade.

    However, research has shown that longstanding social issues, including tensions from cultural differences, have marginalised indigenous Papuans and fostered resentment toward non-locals, said La Pona, a lecturer at Cenderawasih University.

    Papua also faces a humanitarian crisis because of conflicts between Indonesian forces and pro-independence groups. United Nations data shows between 60,000 and 100,000 Papuans were displaced between and 2022.

    As of September 2024, human rights advocates estimate 79,000 Papuans remain displaced even as Indonesia denies UN officials access to the region.

    Pizaro Gozali Idrus in Jakarta contributed to this report. Republished with the permission of BenarNews.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I can make a band play like a singer sings’: Quincy Jones shaped our listening for seven decades

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leigh Carriage, Senior Lecturer in Music, Southern Cross University

    The legendary composer, musical arranger and producer Quincy Jones has died at 91.

    Over his long career, Jones arranged and produced for a broad range of genres. His work blended the traditions of jazz, popular, world music and Western classical music.

    This was perhaps most present in his 1989 album Back on the Block. It features jazz improvisation, Zulu language, gospel and rapping. The album won seven Grammy Awards, including album of the year.

    But even more than his own albums, Jones will be familiar to listeners across decades of popular music, for his work as a producer and arranger with legendary artists such as Ella Fitzgerald, Barry White, Chaka Khan, Frank Sinatra and Michael Jackson.

    Finding his feet in jazz

    Jones was born in Chicago in 1933, right in the middle of the depression. Around 11 years old, Jones found music.

    In high school, Jones sang in a capella groups and played in school bands on the trumpet.

    By 13, he was beginning to demonstrate a strong musical ability and musicianship skills, writing arrangements for his bands.

    When Jones was a teenager, his family moved from Chicago to Seattle. In these early years, Jones had two pivotal mentors. One was the jazz trumpeter Clark Terry; the other was his contemporary and friend Ray Charles.

    By the late 1940s, Jones was working as a trumpeter and as composer and arranger for bandleaders such as Dizzy Gillespie and Lionel Hampton.

    A jazz big band bandleader in the 1950s, Jones quickly became a sought-after arranger.

    Over his career, he worked on numerous jazz recordings with Count Basie, Duke Ellington, Tony Bennett, Sarah Vaughan (including a great swingin’ arrangement of the song
    Witchcraft), Frank Sinatra (with popular favourites Fly Me To The Moon and Mack the Knife) and the Dinah Washington recording They Didn’t Believe Me with the Quincy Jones Orchestra.

    The move into pop

    By the 1960s Jones began transitioning into popular music.

    In 1961 Jones became the first African American in the position of vice president at a major label, Mercury Records. In 1963 Jones selected and produced Lesley Gore’s hit song It’s My Party from more than 200 demos.

    Elements of the previous decades expertise in jazz arranging are apparent with touches of brass and reharmonising (or modifying the harmonic structure – the chords) of a song. Jones’ production approach here was to double-track the melody (duplicating, and placing the second track with a slight delay), enhancing the richness of Gore’s voice.

    In 1968, Jones received his first Oscar nomination for Best Original Score for the soundtrack to In Cold Blood. The following year his composing and arranging versatility was demonstrated when he wrote the music for The Italian Job.

    In 1979 Jones began working with Michael Jackson on the album Off The Wall.

    By the 1980s, Jones was receiving high acclaim and success immersed in many diverse projects including Jackson’s Thriller (1982) and Bad (1987), in which Jones masterfully fuses pop with rhythm and blues, rock and funk.

    His innovation in producing was in his broad understanding of multiple genres of music, adoption of technology and his constant musical invention.

    ‘A great gift’

    In 1985 Jones and Michael Omartian were asked to produce the song We Are The World, written by Lionel Richie and Jackson. It was released to worldwide acclaim.

    Jones conducted the recording and left a sign on the studio door: “Check your egos at the door”.

    Also in 1985, Jones wrote the original score and produced the music for Steven Spielberg’s The Colour Purple, including the song Miss Celie’s Blues, written collaboratively with Jones, Rod Temperton and Richie. The score and Miss Celie’s Blues each received another Oscar nomination for Jones.

    Jones was requested on many large projects as a conductor. A great example is Handel’s Messiah: A Soulful Celebration (1992) conducted by Jones. This album featured some of the music industry’s best arrangers Mervyn Warren and Shelton Kilby as well as a stellar list of vocalists such as Gladys Knight, Take 6, Sounds of Blackness, Pattie Austin, Johnny Mathis, Chaka Khan and Al Jarreau.

    In an interview with culture journalist David Marchese in 2018, Jones was asked what he was proudest of in his musical career. He told Marchese:

    That anything I can feel, I can notate musically. Not many people can do that. I can make a band play like a singer sings. That’s what arranging is, and it’s a great gift.

    Beyond his own work as an artist, Jones undertook humanitarian work, mentored new generations of musicians, and was often a commentator on jazz history or the significance of African Americans in the entertainment and recording industry.

    Jones’ artistic innovation and highly effective collaborations, spanning a 70-year career, has made an indelible contribution to music and culture globally.

    Leigh Carriage does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘I can make a band play like a singer sings’: Quincy Jones shaped our listening for seven decades – https://theconversation.com/i-can-make-a-band-play-like-a-singer-sings-quincy-jones-shaped-our-listening-for-seven-decades-242813

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What Kamala Harris’ Converse All-Stars tell us about how shoes shape our identity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Sherlock, Lecturer, School of Fashion and Textiles, RMIT University

    Like most public figures, Kamala Harris adapts her footwear to different occasions. While her wardrobe includes traditional choices such as formal black heels, it was her appearance in Converse Chuck Taylor All-Stars on the February 2021 cover of Vogue that drew particular notice.

    As Democratic nominee for president, these sneakers once again became a focal point of her campaign.

    Through her choice of sneakers, Harris signals a new era in female political leadership – and demonstrates how footwear choices can shape a leader’s identity and ability to connect with voters.

    Embracing all-American values

    We may know we shouldn’t judge a book by its cover, but all politicians – especially women – know that we inevitably do. The appearance of others is how we categorise people to make sense of the world and our place in it.

    Clothing is a key medium through which we identify ourselves and others. Shoes are particularly layered with meaning: when we observe someone’s footwear we are using them to know whether or not we identify with that person.

    This is something that politicians and their teams know and manipulate to win votes.

    One famous scene that illustrates this beautifully is Brooklyn Democratic congressman David Norris’s concession speech in the movie The Adjustment Bureau (2011).

    Played by Matt Damon, the character reveals the significant work that goes into curating the perfect outfit:

    Shiny shoes, we associate with high-priced lawyers and bankers. If you want to get a working man’s vote, you need to scuff up your shoes a little bit, but you can’t scuff them up so much that you alienate the lawyers and the bankers […] So what is the proper scuffing amount? Do you know, we actually paid a consultant $7,300 to tell us that THIS is the perfect amount of scuffing?

    While Harris’ Chuck Taylors generally look pristine, she is transparent about her awareness of the style’s significance to potential voters, explaining in a 2020 interview:

    Whatever your background or whatever language your grandmother spoke, we all at some point or another had our Chucks, right?

    An all-American shoe worn by people of all ages, races, genders and sexualities, the relatively inexpensive and utilitarian Converse All-Star is a social leveller – a smart choice for a politician wishing to identify with a broad electorate.

    As others have identified, Harris’ choice of sneakers signals her American values and no-nonsense attitude.

    In these shoes, she’s ready for anything.

    Shoes change us

    Interviewed in 2018, Harris’ relationship with the sneakers goes back several years and certainly appears authentic.

    Whether the initial choice to wear them was hers – or, like Norris, that of a team of consultants – is now irrelevant. Through the process of wear, shoes change us.

    Not only do they affect how we move through the world physically, but they also shape how we relate to others socially.

    Anyone who has selected a particular pair of shoes for an interview or special occasion will be familiar with their transformative effect, one that helps you to feel the part.

    Identity can be understood as something that is performed. When a performance is received as convincing, we become the part we are playing and the identity is incorporated into our sense of self.

    Harris’ shoes are relatable. In them, she is perceived as – and may therefore feel – approachable and down-to-earth.

    On the campaign trail, the social interactions they afford increase her ability to relate to and connect with other people. Through this process, her performance and her identity become one.

    One might say she has become her shoes; in doing so, she has come to embody the all-American values they represent. And at only 5 feet 4 ¼ inches, the choice not to compensate for her height with heels exudes a self-assurance more women are discovering.

    This woman knows who she is and is reassuringly at ease with herself.

    Finding authenticity

    Aside from ongoing speculation about Trump’s height and whether he wears elevating insoles, his choice of footwear has attracted comparatively less attention, as is often the case for male politicians.

    According to Footwear News, he rarely diverts from black leather dress shoes, signifying his corporate associations. This didn’t stop Trump launching a line of gold sneakers, named “Never Surrender High-Tops” and priced at US$399 in February. A new design, with the words “Fight, fight, fight”, was released after the July assassination attempt.

    This represents quite a different use of shoes to connect with voters.

    In an era when authenticity in politics is increasingly valued, Harris’ footwear choice represents more than a campaign strategy. It reflects changing expectations around power and leadership.

    Her Converse sneakers challenge the notion that women must literally elevate themselves to command authority.

    Instead, they suggest a new kind of political performance where power comes not from height or traditional status symbols, but from the ability to connect genuinely with voters.

    Alexandra Sherlock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What Kamala Harris’ Converse All-Stars tell us about how shoes shape our identity – https://theconversation.com/what-kamala-harris-converse-all-stars-tell-us-about-how-shoes-shape-our-identity-242777

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Primary care involves more than GPs. A new review shows how patients can better access care

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne

    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Australians today are more likely than previous generations to live with complex and chronic diseases, such as diabetes, heart disease and depression.

    This means they’re more likely to need health care from a variety of different providers, such as nurses, podiatrists, psychologists and physiotherapists, as well as GPs. This is known as “multidisciplinary care”. It works best when the skills of all these professions are available to the patient in a co-ordinated way.

    But the roles of health professions, and the way they’re funded, have been frozen in legislation and policy for decades. Any change has been incremental and disjointed. It has mostly involved adding more items to the Medicare schedule, with each professional practising separately.

    The result has been greater inequity of access. Because fewer than half of allied health fee-for-service visits are bulk-billed, most patients pay almost A$70 for each consultation – and sometimes much more. Those who can’t afford the out-of-pocket costs and can’t find a bulk-billing practitioner miss out.

    To assess how the government can remove barriers to team-based care and get health professions working to their full potential, or their full “scope of practice”, last year the government commissioned an independent review.

    The final report, released yesterday, sets a new path for the primary care workforce. This could make multidisciplinary care within reach of all Australians.

    Using health-care workers’ full potential

    The review involved extensive consultation, including on two issues papers. The report itself incorporates feedback from the consultations, including sceptical comments, reflecting a divergence of opinions.

    Reflected the report’s title, Unleashing the Potential of our Health Workforce, its main emphasis is to change the rules and regulations imposed by state and federal governments. These stymie health professionals and limit their ability to use their full skills and knowledge to manage their patients’ care.

    Over recent decades, health professionals’ education has improved. So professionals are capable of doing more than previously. Yet the rules and regulations have not advanced and so inhibit professionals from making those skills and knowledge available.

    The review argues this contributes to career dissatisfaction, and to people leaving various health professions, exacerbating workforce shortages.

    The review proposes a new way of documenting and describing what can be done by a profession through what it calls a National Skills and Capability Framework and Matrix.

    As with many other recommendations, the review points to where this is done already internationally and how it can nestle into other policies and frameworks to aid implementation.

    Health-care workers aren’t using all their skills.
    DC studio/Shutterstock

    To the disappointment of most allied health professions, the review does not recommend more Medicare payments for them to practise independently.

    Rather, the review recommends payment to general practices for them to expand multi-disciplinary teams. This would see professionals working together, rather than in competition or isolation.

    The review also recommends changing the rules about referrals by health professionals, allowing qualified health professionals to refer directly to non-GP medical specialists in similar areas. This means your psychologist could refer you directly to a psychiatrist if needed, or your physiotherapist could refer you directly to an orthopaedic surgeon rather than needing to go back to your GP.

    This will weaken the role of the GP as a “gatekeeper” and also potentially undermine the more holistic care that GPs provide. But from a patient’s point of view, eliminating the intermediate step saves them out-of-pocket costs.

    An important recommendation recognises that the health system evolves and rules and regulations need to evolve too. It therefore supplements its recommendations for changes now, with an approach for continuous review through an independent mechanism. This would provide evidence-based advice and recommendations about:

    • significant workforce innovation
    • emerging health care roles
    • workforce models that involve significant change to scope.

    When will we see change?

    The review sets out a loose timeline for implementation, described as short, medium and long term. And it assigns responsibility for each element of its recommendations to appropriate bodies and governments.

    As almost all the recommendations require legislative change, and many require agreement between the Commonwealth and the states, it’s unlikely any of the changes will take effect this financial year.

    The review recommends change be implemented in a systematic, evidence-based and safe way. Implementation would start in areas of greatest need such as in rural and remote Australia and also in practices most ready for the change, such as Aboriginal Controlled Community Health Organisations or Victoria’s Community Health Centres.

    The review recommends changes to the referral process.
    voronaman/Shutterstock

    In releasing what he referred to as a “landmark” report, Health Minister Mark Butler noted the complexity of implementation, which would require collaborative action with states and territories. He noted the need for further consultation, but nevertheless took a supportive tone.

    Can this review prompt real health reform?

    Overall, the review charts a middle course between letting health professionals roam free and the tight and inappropriate rules and regulations which constrain patient care today. It also sets out the practical steps to achieve its goals.

    The one downside of the report is the emphasis on harmonisation of state and territory approaches. This would replace the current approach, where each state and territory decides, for example, on what vaccines can be administered by which professionals and what pharmacists can dispense without a medical practitioner’s prescription.

    One of the benefits of a federation is the potential for state- and territory-based innovation and cross-border learning. Harmonisation will limit that experimenting, and may lead to more of the stasis seen in health workforce policy in the past.

    Stephen Duckett was consulted by the Independent Reviewer during the course of the Review and commented on the Review’s Issues Papers and Draft Final Report

    – ref. Primary care involves more than GPs. A new review shows how patients can better access care – https://theconversation.com/primary-care-involves-more-than-gps-a-new-review-shows-how-patients-can-better-access-care-242698

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What to expect on Election Day: history could be made, or we’re in for a long wait (and plenty of conspiracies)

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

    As Americans vote in one of the most important presidential elections in generations, the country teeters on a knife edge. In the battleground states that will likely decide the result, the polling margins between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are razor thin.

    These tiny margins, and the general confusion around American politics today, make it impossible to predict the outcome.

    The polls might well be wrong: the electorate may have shifted dramatically since 2020 in ways that will only reveal themselves after the election. The reality is we do not know much of anything for sure, and we may never be able to untangle all of the threads that make up the knot of American politics.

    After two assassination attempts on Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden’s dramatic decision to leave the race in August, it is entirely possible this election will throw up more big surprises. But as things stand, there are three broad possibilities for what will happen on Election Day.

    All of them throw up their own challenges – for the United States, and for the world.

    Possibility 1: the return of Trump

    Trump may make history and win back the White House. Only Grover Cleveland has managed to get elected a second time as president (in 1892) after suffering a defeat four years earlier.

    If Trump does win, it could be via a similar path to the one he took in 2016 – by once again sundering the “blue wall” and winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

    This feat will likely mean his campaign tactic of mobilising men has worked.

    A Trump victory would represent the culmination of a generational project of the American right. A second Trump administration would be very different from the first – the movement behind Trump is more organised, focused and cognisant of the mistakes of the first Trump White House. It would also face considerably weakened democratic guardrails.

    The implementation of Trump’s radical agenda, alongside some or all of the broader far-right agenda detailed in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, would radically reshape American life and create political and economic chaos.

    The rest of the world would have to reorient itself, once again, around Trump.

    Possibility 2: Harris makes history

    It is entirely possible Harris makes history – not only by beating Trump, but by becoming the first woman and woman of colour to win the US presidency.

    Like Trump, if Harris does win, it will likely be through one or more of the battleground states – in particular, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

    For Harris, victory will likely come via high turnout by women and voters of colour, particularly African-Americans, or through a combination of turnout by this core Democratic base and swing voters in key states like Pennsylvania.

    How Harris wins – and by how much – will be crucial, both to the immediate aftermath of the election and to the shape of a future Harris administration.

    A big question: can she win by enough to head off resistance by Trump and the movement behind him? As Australian writer Don Watson has noted, a Harris victory would likely be taken as an existential defeat by the MAGA movement.

    How Trump’s supporters react to such a defeat – and how US institutions react to their reaction – will be a critical test for American democracy.

    Possibility 3: too close to call

    This brings us to the third possibility: the polls are correct, and it’s such a tight race that the margins in the battleground states are in the thousands of votes, or even less.

    If it is that close, counting could take days. And there could be recounts after that.

    While conspiracies abound, a delay in the result like this would be an entirely predictable and normal outcome. In the United States, there isn’t one system for counting the votes; elections are run by the states on a county-by-county basis, and each state does it differently.

    Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, legally can’t start counting mail-in votes until the polls open on Election Day.

    Then there is the supposed “blue shift” or “red mirage” that sometimes occurs on election night.

    There are now many ways to vote in the US – in person on Election Day, early voting before Election Day or by mail-in ballot. And the time it takes to count these different ballots can vary. So, it may appear as if one candidate is winning early in the night (say, when in-person votes are counted) only for their opponent to slowly turn the tide (when mail-in ballots are counted).

    In the 2020 election, this meant early Trump (“red”) leads were gradually lost to the Biden (“blue”) votes. Researchers found that counties won by Biden counted more slowly, on average, than those won by Trump – hence the so-called “blue shift”.

    This is an entirely normal – and legal – phenomenon. In Nevada, for instance, state law permits mail-in ballots to be counted four days after Election Day, so long as they were postmarked by Election Day.

    Trump and his surrogates like Steve Bannon, however, have exploited the differing times it takes to count votes to peddle baseless conspiracy theories, undermining Americans’ faith in their own democracy, and to incite unrest.

    By baselessly declaring victory in 2020 on the early “red mirage” tallies in key states before all the votes were counted, Trump was able to create what Bannon described as a “firestorm” – one that eventually led to the insurrection of January 6 2021.

    This could very well happen again. Bannon, in fact, has just been released from prison after serving four months for contempt of Congress, and could once again be a driving force in any post-election challenges by the Trump campaign.

    Trump, meanwhile, lied again this week when he said “these elections have to be, they have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night” – laying the groundwork for further election conspiracies.

    Delays are normal – but fraught

    Trump has made it very clear he will not accept another election loss. If he does lose, he or his surrogates will attempt to weaponise similar conspiracy theories again. They may also use legal challenges to vote counts as they did in 2020 – both to contest the result and to once again mobilise the MAGA movement.

    In the event of close margins, it’s also possible some states will go to a recount.

    There are different rules for this in different states. To take one example, if the margin is within 0.5% in Georgia, a candidate can request a recount.

    In the 2020 presidential election, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia by 0.25%, which triggered a full hand recount of the votes. The Associated Press declared Biden the winner of the state more than two weeks after Election Day. A second recount was later reconfirmed by Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

    Again, this is a normal part of the process. It ensures all votes are counted accurately and the result reflects the democratic will of the American people as best as the (admittedly, deeply flawed) system allows.

    Such a delay, legitimate as it would be, would elevate the already very real risk of further political violence and instability in the United States.

    None of these outcomes is inevitable. 2024 is not 2020; nor is it 2016. What happens next in America depends on the movement and interplay of so many tangled threads, it is impossible to see where old ones end and new ones might begin.

    In all of this, only one thing is certain. Whatever the result – and however long it takes to come through – the divisions and conspiracy theories that have destabilised American politics for so long will not be easily or quickly resolved. That knot may well prove impossible to untangle.

    Emma Shortis is Director of the International and Security Affairs program at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

    – ref. What to expect on Election Day: history could be made, or we’re in for a long wait (and plenty of conspiracies) – https://theconversation.com/what-to-expect-on-election-day-history-could-be-made-or-were-in-for-a-long-wait-and-plenty-of-conspiracies-242598

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fijian journalists embrace multimedia landscape for the digital age

    By Catrin Gardiner, Queensland University of Technology

    In the middle of the Pacific, Fiji journalists are transforming their practice, as newsrooms around Suva are requiring journalists to become multimedia creators, shaping stories for the digital age.

    A wave of multimedia journalists is surfacing in Fijian journalism culture, fostered during university education, and transitioning seamlessly into the professional field for junior journalists.

    University of the South Pacific’s technical editor and digital communication officer Eliki Drugunalevu believes that multimedia journalism is on the rise for two reasons.

    “The first is the fact that your phone is pretty much your newsroom on the go.”

    With the right guidance and training in using mobile phone apps, “you can pretty much film your story from anywhere”, he says.

    The second reason is that reliance on social media platforms gives “rise to mobile journalism and becoming a multimedia journalist”.

    Drugunalevu says changes to university journalism curriculum are not “evolving fast enough” with the industry.

    Need for ‘parallel learning’
    “There needs to be parallel learning between what the industry is going through and what the students are being taught.”

    Mobile journalism is growing increasingly around the world. In Fiji this is particularly evident, with large newsrooms entertaining the concept of a single reporter taking on multiple roles.

    Fijian Media Association’s vice-president and Fiji Times editor-in-chief Fred Wesley says one example of the changing landscape is that the Times is now providing all its journalists with mobile phones.

    “While there is still a photography department, things are slowly moving towards multimedia journalists.”

    Wesley says when no photographers are available to cover a story with a reporter, the journalists create their own images with their mobile phones.

    Journalists working in the Fiji Times newsroom, which is among the last few remaining news organisations in Fiji to have a dedicated photography department. Image: Catrin Gardiner, Queensland University of Technology

    The Fiji Broadcasting Corporation (FBC) also encourages journalists to take part in all types of media including, online, radio, and television, even advertising for multimedia journalists. This highlights the global shift of replacing two-person teams in newsrooms.

    Nevertheless, the transition to multimedia journalists is not as positive as commonly thought. Complaints against multimedia journalism come from journalists who receive additional tasks, leading to an increase in workload.

    FBC advertises for multimedia journalists, reflecting the new standard in newsrooms. Image: FBC TV/Facebook/QUT

    Preference for print
    Former print journalist turned multimedia journalist at FBC, Litia Cava says she prefers focusing on just print.

    She worked a lot less when she was just working in a newspaper, she says.

    “When I worked for the paper, I would start at one,” she says. “But here I start working when I walk in.”

    Executives at major Fijian news companies, such as Fiji TV’s director of news, current affairs and sports, Felix Chaudhary, also complain about the lack of equipment in their newsrooms to support this wave of multimedia journalism.

    “The biggest challenge is the lack of equipment and training,” Chaudhary says.

    Fiji TV is doing everything it can to catch up to world standards and provide journalists with the best equipment and training to prepare them for the transition from traditional to multimedia journalism.

    “We receive a lot of assistance from PACMAS and Internews,” Chaudhary says. “However, we are constantly looking for more training opportunities. The world is already moving towards that, and we just have to follow suit or get left behind.”

    More confidence
    Fortunately for young Fijian journalists, Islands Business managing editor Samantha Magick says a lot of younger journalists are more confident to go out and produce and write their own stories.

    “It’s the education now,” she says. “All the journalists coming through are multimedia, so not as challenging for them.”

    University of South Pacific student journalist Brittany Louise says the practical learning of all the different media in her journalism course will be beneficial for her future.

    “I think that’s a major plus,” she says. “You already have some sort of skills so it helps you with whatever different equipment it may be.”

    Catrin Gardiner was a student journalist from the Queensland University of Technology who travelled to Fiji with the support of the Australian government’s New Colombo Plan Mobility Programme. This article is published in a partnership of QUT with Asia Pacific Report, Asia Pacific Media Network (APMN) and The University of the South Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Donald Trump ‘unfit to lead’ – vote for Harris, warns New York Times

    Pacific Media Watch

    The editorial board of The New York Times has demolished Donald Trump in a single paragraph calling on readers to vote for Vice-President Kamala Harris in today’s US elections.

    The editorial, published on Saturday, was only the Times’ latest attack on the former president in the run-up to the election, but the searing indictment was all the more brutal for its brevity.

    The 10-line editorial simply said:

    “You already know Donald Trump. He is unfit to lead. Watch him. Listen to those who know him best. He tried to subvert an election and remains a threat to democracy. He helped overturn Roe, with terrible consequences. Mr. Trump’s corruption and lawlessness go beyond elections: It’s his whole ethos. He lies without limit. If he’s re-elected, the G.O.P. won’t restrain him. Mr. Trump will use the government to go after opponents. He will pursue a cruel policy of mass deportations. He will wreak havoc on the poor, the middle class and employers. Another Trump term will damage the climate, shatter alliances and strengthen autocrats. Americans should demand better. Vote.”

    The dismissal of Trump by The Times was in contrast to two other major US newspapers, both owned by billionaires — The Washington Post and the LA Times — which last month controversially refused to make an editorial call.

    “You already know Donald Trump. He is unfit to lead.” The brief editorial in The New York Times on Saturday, Image: NYT screenshot APR

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A new campaign rewards young gamers on Roblox for engaging with the US election. What does it mean for global politics?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Orlando, Researcher: Digital Literacy and Digital Wellbeing, Western Sydney University

    Alex Photo Stock/Shutterstock

    If historical trends are anything to go by, most young people in the United States will not vote at this week’s presidential election. For example, at the 2016 presidential election, less than half of Americans aged 18 to 29 cast their ballot.

    But a new campaign on the hugely popular online gaming platform Roblox aims to encourage young people in the US to get out and exercise their democratic right on Tuesday.

    The “Virtual Vote” initiative is a partnership between Roblox game developers and a national political non-profit organisation called HeadCount.

    It has already engaged thousands of Roblox users – and it may mark the beginning of an entirely new way young people worldwide learn about and engage with real-life politics.

    The ultimate virtual universe

    Roblox is an online gaming platform where people can create an avatar, play a library of user-created games and socialise. Its developers describe it as the “the ultimate virtual universe”.

    It has roughly 79.5 million reported daily users globally and is valued at US$38 billion.

    The online gaming platform is especially popular among young people. However, it also poses a number of safety risks, including grooming and cyberbullying.

    Because of this, some governments have cracked down on Roblox. For example, earlier this year, it was banned in Turkey.

    Now the 2024 US presidential election has also entered the Roblox virtual gaming universe.

    From games to politics

    Virtual Vote is billed as the “first immersive civic engagement campaign”.

    Justin Hochberg, CEO of Virtual Brand Group (which develops games for Roblox) and the founder of Virtual Vote stated that his goal was simple:

    With 57% of gamers discovering global fashion, sports and entertainment brands while playing, this initiative meets Gen Z where they are to make a difference for the world’s biggest brand — #America.

    Virtual Vote was launched just four weeks ago in partnership with Headcount, a long-standing, not-for-profit youth voter engagement platform in the US. Other organisations – many of which are prominent in the online brand and content space – have also come on board.

    Players engage with Virtual Vote via popular games on Roblox, such as Livetopia, which has 4.7 billion user visits, and Karlie Kloss’s Fashion Klossette, which has 33.1 million total visits.

    Upon entering Virtual Vote, players meet Sam the Eagle, a guide who encourages them to check their voter registration status. Through Sam, players explore interactive maps showing state-specific voting rules and timelines.

    Virtual Vote is also a form of gaming and entertainment with big rewards and prizes for players who engage with it. Up for grabs is a trip to Hollywood to meet television presenter Jimmy Kimmel, VIP tickets to see musician Sabrina Carpenter, a snowboarding trip with champion American snowboarder Jamie Anderson, as well as limited-edition merchandise and content to play within Roblox.

    In the four weeks since its launch, Virtual Vote has had a strong response from Roblox users. More than 500,000 people have played the mini game so far – almost 4,000 of whom subsequently checked their voter registration status.

    Shaping political viewpoints online

    Platforms like Roblox, with their massive global youth audiences, are becoming increasingly important for shaping political views and real-world political engagement.

    Children and young adults immersed in these virtual worlds may be unknowingly absorbing information and perspectives that could influence their future voting decisions.

    Right now, the focus is on voter registration. However, given the huge impact it’s having, there is clear potential for such campaigns to become much more persuasive and biased.

    In future, we could see kids vying for rewards within online games or social media that may subtly shape their political viewpoints, which they then carry into how they vote as adults.

    This phenomenon has flown under the radar for the current US election. But its impact could be significant. Even more so since young people currently get so much of their news from social platforms.

    For example, the current trend on TikTok of women “cancelling out” the pro-Trump votes of their partners reinforces a gender binary for voting habits. These trending videos are fun, comedic, give minimal factual information. But some of them are getting up to two million views each.

    Similarly, election-themed videos – many of which have been identified as misinformation – on the popular online video platform YouTube have racked up millions of views in recent weeks.

    Exacerbating this situation is that young people often use social media, watch YouTube and play games on Roblox in combination. This can mean triple the impact of how these platforms can shape their political views.

    Online games and platforms are constantly shape-shifting and looking for new ways to engage with ever bigger global audiences.

    So wherever we live in the world, a campaign like Virtual Vote – seeking to achieve real-world political influence through an online video game platform – are important to pay attention to.

    Given the impact of Virtual Vote on so many young people, in such a short period of time, we can expect to see more political influence in their play. Shaping elections in the online space has just taken a new step.

    Joanne Orlando has received funding from the Office of the eSafety Commissioner.

    – ref. A new campaign rewards young gamers on Roblox for engaging with the US election. What does it mean for global politics? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-campaign-rewards-young-gamers-on-roblox-for-engaging-with-the-us-election-what-does-it-mean-for-global-politics-242901

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 31% of companies are not paying tax in Australia. How do they do it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kerrie Sadiq, Professor of Taxation, QUT Business School, and ARC Future Fellow, Queensland University of Technology

    Seb Zurcher/Unsplash

    Large companies paid the Australian government a record A$100 billion in tax in the last year, a 17% increase on the previous year. But, over the same period, there were still 31% of large companies, operating here but not paying any tax.

    The Australian Taxation Office’s annual corporate tax transparency report released last week includes data on nearly 4,000 of Australia’s largest corporations.

    In its tenth year, the report is lauded by the government and ATO as a way to increase corporate accountability and reduce tax avoidance. But there is no detail on the tax practices of multinational entities, including how they interact with their offices around the world.

    In particular, there is little information about how 1,200 companies paid no tax.

    What the report tells us

    The transparency report provides data on corporations with income of $100 million or more and businesses which pay the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT). This includes Australian public and foreign-owned corporate tax entities, as well as Australian-owned resident private companies.

    The report details the total income, taxable income, tax payable, and PRRT payable for all entities that meet the reporting threshold. Taxable income is simply assessable income minus deductions. Tax payable as a percentage of taxable income, can then be used to calculate an effective tax rate. The statutory corporate tax rate is 30%.

    A variation between an effective tax rate and the statutory tax rate is not evidence of tax avoidance. However, questions need to be asked about how profitable companies reduce their tax liability to zero.

    Zero liability can be achieved by deducting offsets and credits. For example, companies that conduct significant research and development are given tax breaks which reduce the amount of tax payable.

    Where a company has accounting losses or a tax loss because it has incurred more expenses than income, tax will be zero. These are legitimate reasons for paying no tax.

    But the limited information provided simply tells us how profitable a company is, the amount of tax deductions claimed against that profit, and the tax payable.

    What the report doesn’t tell us

    The transparency report reveals little about tax practices of multinational entities.

    The question remains what deductions are being claimed by corporations and tax entities. The ATO has this information but can only publish what the law allows them, which is limited.

    For multinationals, deductions will include dealings with overseas parts of the global entity, such as subsidiaries or the parent entity. These transactions create legitimate tax deductions.

    Common transactions include payments to overseas subsidiaries for services, royalty payments for intellectual property, and interest on overseas borrowings.

    In the case of petrol company Chevron, money was borrowed in the United States at around 1.2% and on lent to a related Australian entity at 9%.

    After a long court battle, about 5% of interest was allowed as a deduction, an amount significantly above the original interest rate. This gave Chevron in Australia a large tax deduction.

    It is through these types of transactions profits earned in Australia are shifted overseas. Current tax law allows this but requires the transaction, known as the transfer price, to be at arm’s length – that is, the price is agreed to between independent parties entering the same transaction.

    What is transfer pricing?

    Multinationals are global by nature and therefore logically maximise worldwide profits. Tax systems do not operate in the same way.

    Tax comes under domestic law which means transactions between parts of a global entity are recognised for tax purposes.

    If goods or services are sold by one part of the entity to another, an internal transaction occurs. For tax purposes the transaction is recognised as a deduction in one location and income in another. An Australian entity would pay a foreign party for things like marketing, and get a deduction for the expense.

    In recent years the ATO has settled marketing disputes with large multinationals including Google, BHP, Apple, Rio Tinto, ResMed and Microsoft.

    Where a deduction is allowed in a high tax jurisdiction, such as Australia, and income is included in the profits of a low tax jurisdiction, such as Singapore, the result is larger overall global profits.

    The tax system recognises the incentive for multinational entities to shift profits this way and requires transactions to be at a commercial or negotiated price. Determining the price however can be fraught and has led to numerous court cases and tax disputes.

    The tax transparency report reveals nothing about these types of transactions.

    Taxing multinationals in Australia

    In the last decade there have been moves to tax income in the location of the economic activity. The OECD has tried to stop profit shifting by companies, which erodes the tax base of high taxing jurisdictions, through its tax reform agenda.

    Further complicating the issue of transfer pricing is the question of whether there is any real activity in the countries where different parts of a multinational are located.

    Singapore is recognised for what are known as service hubs. These are places where various services such as sales negotiations are conducted and marketing occurs. Singapore also happens to have a headline corporate tax rate of 17%. This is often reduced to single digits after deals are entered into between taxpayers and the Singapore revenue authority.

    Intellectual property poses similar problems.

    These are increasingly valuable assets for multinational entities as they provide a unique edge in the market. We only need to think of Apple, Microsoft and Google to understand how valuable names, logos and designs are.

    By its very nature intellectual property has no physical location and can be owned anywhere in the world. Often, intellectual property is held in low or no tax countries.

    The transparency report includes no details about how much is transferred to these locations. This is where Australia’s proposed public country-by-country reporting may assist.

    Is the ATO’s corporate tax transparency report worthwhile?

    Australia should continue to strive to be a leader in corporate tax transparency.

    A two-step approach is required to eliminate corporate tax avoidance. Information is valuable and public transparency measures are an important first step.

    A second step, however, is to reform substantive tax laws to tax profits where they are genuinely being generated.

    Kerrie Sadiq is the recipient of a four year Australian Research Council Future Fellowship Grant.

    – ref. 31% of companies are not paying tax in Australia. How do they do it? – https://theconversation.com/31-of-companies-are-not-paying-tax-in-australia-how-do-they-do-it-242695

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –