When was the last time you heard someone talk in detail about their grief?
For many of us, it could be rarely or never. There are several reasons for this.
Grieving people often avoid raising the topic in conversation because they want to avoid upsetting or burdening people. Family and friends of grieving people often feel unsure or uncomfortable about asking them to talk about it, fearing they will infringe on the person’s privacy. One study of grieving adults in Australia and Ireland showed nearly one-third said they didn’t receive the support they would have liked. Some experts note we tend to deny or minimise others’ grief, increasing their isolation.
Actor Andrew Garfield, best known for playing Spiderman, appeared on Sesame Street last week and spoke with Elmo in moving and affirming ways about grieving his mother’s death. Clips of their short conversation have been widely shared on social media. It presents a great example of communicating well about grief.
Sadness can be a gift explains Garfield, ‘a lovely thing to feel in a way because it means you really loved somebody when you miss them.’
Kids grieve too
Issues around grief and isolation can be the same for children and young people as for older people.
In fact, grief in young people is recognised as “the last taboo in public health”. By the age of 18, around one in 20 children have a parent die. Even more will experience grief following the deaths of other close people such as siblings and grandparents. Children also grieve the deaths of pets. Yet we struggle to acknowledge, let alone understand and help them with the grief.
Due to a desire to protect them from harm or distress, adults are often reluctant to talk about dying and death with children. We also underestimate their abilities to understand such difficult topics. My recent work with Lionheart Camp for Kids shows such good intentions leave grieving children with many unanswered questions.
So it was great to see Andrew Garfield (who has discussed the topic before on talk shows and in interviews) share his experience on children’s television.
Losing the person who gave you life is bizarre tells Anderson Cooper. ‘It doesn’t make sense.’
Their exchange begins with the character of Elmo checking in with Garfield, to see if he’s OK. He asks in a warm and open-ended way.
What Garfield communicates well is checking if Elmo is willing and comfortable to hear him talk about his thoughts and feelings. He conveys his feelings of grief and speaks about how missing someone is due to love. He shares his understanding about the comforting role memories can bring to the bereaved, and about recognising a deceased person can be celebrated and missed at the same time.
Elmo also does a great job of listening. He normalises Garfield’s thoughts and feelings, and gently affirms his memories of his deceased mother. Importantly, Elmo doesn’t make the conversation about himself or resort to tired clichés like “this shall pass” or “she’d want you to move on”. He doesn’t minimise his discomfort with jokes or provide unsolicited advice on how to feel or behave.
Social support in the wake of loss helps grieving people – if it’s done right. Too often, however, it’s not, and can leave grieving people more distressed.
Though an almost universal need, providing effective social support for grieving people is a complex process. It must involve:
a potential supporter recognising the bereaved person’s need for support
support that is available, sufficient and offered to the bereaved
But in daily life, it’s rare to hear anyone talk openly about these feelings. That’s why it’s so refreshing when people in the public eye break the taboo that surrounds grief and loss. It is important for grieving people of all ages to be able to talk about their grief and be listened to. For potential supporters, it is enriching to think about they can listen, validate and support.
As Garfield and Elmo show, grieving people and their support people can work together to develop a compassionate connection in a conversation that benefits both parties.
Lauren Breen receives funding from Healthway and has previously received funding from Wellcome Trust, Australian Research Council, Department of Health (Western Australia), Silver Chain, iCare Dust Diseases Board (New South Wales), and Cancer Council (Western Australia). She is on the board of Lionheart Camp for Kids and is a member of Grief Australia and the Australian Psychological Society.
Almost one in three have been sexually abused as a child, generally more than once, and often with significant and lifelong impacts.
The National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse has released findings from more than 4,000 adults in a new study examining the community’s attitudes towards, knowledge of, and responses to child sexual abuse.
The data reveal some troubling findings, with pervasive and harmful community norms and attitudes that act to enable child sexual abuse to continue.
What are social norms?
Social norms are “rules” shared among people in a particular society, community, or group, and define what is considered “normal” and appropriate behaviour within the group.
These rules are often unwritten and not openly discussed.
These norms influence what people do (and don’t do) in many aspects of life, including preventing and responding to child sexual abuse.
Why do they matter?
Some cultures’ norms and attitudes limit disclosure of abuse.
In our study, 62% were pretty sure they knew someone who had been sexually abused as a child.
Yet only 9% had directly been told by a child about being sexually abused, while 35% had been told by an adult about historical child sexual abuse.
These low rates suggest there are forces at play that limit talking about child sexual abuse.
Some in the community believe it’s not acceptable to discuss child sexual abuse. In response to a hypothetical disclosure by an adult friend, about one in ten thought it was very/extremely important to tell their friend that it’s best not to talk about it at all.
Some (5%) reported they would try to avoid their friend.
What else did the research reveal?
There was also evidence community members didn’t think child sexual abuse was an important problem or that it affected them directly.
Around two in three adults felt they were not directly affected or were unsure if they were affected by child sexual abuse. More than half didn’t think child sexual abuse happened where they live.
One in ten thought child sexual abuse receives too much media coverage.
Some norms and attitudes also limit intervention to stop child sexual abuse.
We found that of those who discovered or received a child’s disclosure about sexual abuse, less than half had a supportive conversation with the child (about 40%) and/or reported to authorities like police or child protection agencies (about 30%).
Also, almost one in three adults were “not at all” confident about how to talk to the parent/carer of a child they suspected had been sexually abused. More than a quarter (28%) felt “not at all” confident about how to start a conversation with the child they suspected had been sexually abused.
Not having these conversations or not reporting maintains secrecy around child sexual abuse. It can send a message to victims and survivors not to talk about it, or that nothing will be done to stop the abuse.
Though the lack of intervention may be due to a lack of confidence, we also found adults held attitudes that children can’t always be believed (22%) or were too unreliable to take their word over an adult’s (18%).
These attitudes mean many children won’t be believed and protected if they disclose sexual abuse.
Some norms and attitudes increase acceptance of child sexual abuse, or blame victims, especially adolescents.
Alarmingly, 40% of respondents in the study thought older children were responsible for actively resisting an adult’s sexual advances, and 12% believed adolescent girls who wear very revealing clothing are “asking” to be sexually abused.
Adding to this, 13% believed children who act “seductively” are at least partly to blame if an adult responds sexually, while 8% thought obedient children are less likely to experience child sexual abuse, implying “good” children won’t be sexually abused.
These harmful attitudes misdirect the blame for the abuse onto the victim, making it unsafe for them to disclose and at the same time, making it acceptable for adults to stay silent.
Blaming victims maintains the status quo of unacceptably high levels of child sexual abuse and causes further harm.
Where to from here?
Putting an end to the sexual abuse of children in Australia requires concerted and co-ordinated action at all levels of society.
Global initiatives offer some guidance on how shifting entrenched and harmful attitudes and norms can change behaviours.
At a minimum, we must challenge gender inequality and power imbalances, promote equitable relationships and shared responsibilities. Mobilisation programs intervening directly at the community level and initiatives with specific populations who hold harmful and problematic attitudes are also promising in preventing child sexual abuse.
Now we have benchmarks on the community’s attitudes towards child sexual abuse, we can measure the effectiveness of Australia’s efforts for change.
It is everyone’s responsibility to know the signs, listen, believe and act in response to child sexual abuse.
Andrea de Silva works for the National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse who conducted this study. The National Centre is funded by the Department of Social Services. The National Centre is a partnership between the Australian Childhood Foundation, Blue Knot Foundation and the Healing Foundation.
Amanda L. Robertson works for the National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse who conducted the study with funding from the Department of Social Services.
While the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could have provided an off-ramp for the conflict in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ongoing vows of “total victory” make this seem unlikely.
The concept of “total victory”, however, is extremely problematic. Every time Israel declares an area cleared of Hamas and then withdraws, Hamas, which carried out the horrific attack on southern Israel on October 7 2023, has quickly returned to reestablish control.
As a result, there has been a marked Israeli escalation in northern Gaza in recent days, and much discussion about a so-called “general’s plan” being pushed by some right-wing members of Netanyahu’s government.
Concocted by a former Israeli general, Giora Eiland, the plan is, in essence, to forego negotiations, bisect the enclave and give northern Gaza’s 400,000 inhabitants the bleak choice between leaving and dying.
We don’t know whether Netanyahu will officially endorse the plan. Israeli leaders reportedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week they are not implementing it. However, it nonetheless has broad support among Israel’s political and military elite.
The Israeli military has already issued expulsion orders to the people of northern Gaza. The government has said anyone who remains would be considered a military target and will be deprived of food and water.
While Israel denies obstructing humanitarian aid, the World Food Program said no food aid entered northern Gaza for two weeks in early October. While some aid has been entering since then, thousands are still at risk of starvation and outbreaks of preventable diseases.
Moreover, many Palestinians, including the sick, elderly and wounded, are unable to move and have nowhere to go. The prospect of the overcrowded and unprotected tent cities of the south is hardly enticing.
Israeli human rights groups say the military had been deliberately blocking aid to give the population no choice but to leave northern Gaza. Israel may now be backtracking under pressure from the United States, which has given Netanyahu’s government a 30-day deadline to increase the amount of aid it allows into Gaza or risk losing US weapons funding.
Undermining international norms and rules
Israel’s war against Gaza, and now Lebanon, has repeatedly challenged the foundations of the liberal international rules-based order set up after the second world war, as well as the tenets of international law, multilateral diplomacy, democracy and humanitarianism.
The norms of the liberal world order are expressed in various institutions, such as:
the UN Charter
the UN Security Council, with its notionally legally binding resolutions
the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague
the Geneva Conventions governing the rules of war
the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), among many others.
Recently, the ICJ ruled Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem is illegal and ordered it to withdraw. In response, Netanyahu said the court had made a “decision of lies”.
In a separate case, South Africa brought a charge to the ICJ, alleging Israel has committed genocide against the Palestinian people over the past year. The world’s top court has preliminarily ruled there is a “plausible” case for a finding of genocide, and said Israel must take measures to ensure its prevention.
At this juncture, however, human rights groups and others have argued that Israel has failed to comply with this order, thereby undermining one of the key institutions of the liberal world order.
This is compounded by the fact that few major democratic states have been willing to strongly condemn Israel’s failure to comply with international law in Gaza – or have done so belatedly – let alone intervened in any concrete fashion.
In addition, the UN Security Council has failed – primarily due to the veto power exercised by the US – to take any tangible measures to enforce its own resolutions against Israel, as well as the rulings of the ICJ.
This is fuelling widespread perceptions of hypocrisy in relation to the accountability of notionally democratic states for alleged violations of humanitarian law, compared with other nations that don’t have great power patrons.
In the early 1990s, for instance, the UN Security Council unanimously passed several resolutions against Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, followed a decade later by resolutions demanding Saddam Hussein’s regime comply with weapons inspection mandates. The US and its allies used these resolutions as the legal justification for their invasion of Iraq. Ultimately, no weapons of mass destruction were found. Then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan later said the invasion of Iraq was illegal and contrary to the UN Charter.
The prosecutors of the ICC have also requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged crimes against humanity (in addition to several Hamas leaders, now dead). The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were met with indignation by some Western politicians. Yet, the West broadly praised the ICC’s arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Furthermore, the US Congress attempted to sanction the court over the Netanyahu arrest warrant, once again underscoring the often selective way in which international law is applied by nation states.
A crisis of legitimacy for the world order
Democratic states like to present themselves as the protectors, and sometimes enforcers, of the liberal world order, ensuring continued international peace and security.
Indeed, Israel and its supporters often characterise its military actions as the forward defence of the democratic world against tyrannical larger powers, as a means of protecting itself from adversaries that want to destroy it. The problem is Israel’s actions often directly contradict the liberal world order it purports to defend, thereby undermining its legitimacy.
Failure to rein in Israel’s actions has led to accusations of “double standards” regarding international law. The US and Germany provide Israel with 99% of its arm imports and diplomatic cover. Although Germany has stopped approving new weapons exports to Israel, both countries certainly have more leverage to stop the carnage in Gaza if they wish.
The West’s self-abrogated moral superiority is arguably in tatters as it continues to undermine the principles of the liberal world order. The question is: if this world order falls, what will the new world order look like?
Tristan Dunning has signed a statement of solidarity with Palestine from academics in Australian universities.
Shannon Brincat has signed a statement of solidarity with Palestine from academics in Australian universities.
Martin Kear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod Sims, Professor in the practice of public policy and antitrust, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Meta’s announcement nearly eight months ago that it would no longer do commercial deals under the News Media Bargaining Code has led to much speculation as to how the government would respond.
The code became law in 2021. Facing the threat of designation under it – which would involve further legal obligations platforms may wish to avoid – both Google and Facebook (now Meta) did deals with news media businesses worth up to A$250 million per year.
Google did deals with essentially all qualifying news media business, large and small – the criteria largely being that their journalists provide news. Facebook did deals with news businesses likely employing up to 85% of Australian journalists
With little response from the government so far, a new report from a federal parliamentary committee investigating the impact of social media on Australian society provides welcome focus on this issue.
Key recommendations
The committee makes 11 recommendations, three of which in particular are worth focusing on.
Recommendation two says the Australian government should explore alternative revenue mechanisms to supplement the code, such as a digital platform levy. But it also says “exploration should include consideration for preserving current and future commercial deals”, presumably under the code.
Recommendation three says the Australian government should develop an appropriate mechanism to guide the fair and transparent distribution of revenue arising from any new revenue mechanisms. In particular, this would support the:
sustainability of small, independent and digital only publishers, as well as those operating in underserved communities and rural, regional and remote areas.
Recommendation six says the Australian government “should investigate the viability and effectiveness of ‘must carry’ requirements for digital platforms in relation to Australian news content”.
Coalition members provided a different perspective on some of the committee’s recommendations. They expressed concern about the lack of action from the government in response to Meta’s decision to not do more deals under the code. Further, they read the report as saying that the code is “no longer fit for purpose” – a view they strongly disagree with.
the realities of how our platforms work, the preferences of the people who use them, and the value we provide news publishers who choose to post their content on our platforms.
Meta, parent company of Instagram and Facebook, is strongly opposed to paying a levy to fund news media. QubixStudio/Shutterstock
Not so simple
The committee’s recommendations raise many questions.
First, how would the levy sit with wanting to maintain existing and future deals under the code? In any solution to dealing with Meta it would seem silly to damage the current arrangements with Google, which has committed to continue supporting news organisations under the code, and who are paying the majority of the up to $250 million per year?
Second, biasing any revenue to smaller and/or rural and regional publishers may mean that, despite most news stories coming from the larger media companies, they would not benefit in accordance with their content being used. The code did see benefit to large, medium and small media businesses. But, of course, the larger companies gained most money as they provided most content.
Some smaller media businesses did miss out on funding. But it was often judged that they do not provide news journalism, which was what the code is seeking to promote.
In 2018, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (of which I was then chair) made a number of recommendations to the government. These included the code. They also included government funding for journalism in underserved areas and support for other objectives, such as boosting smaller news media companies. A different objective requiring a different policy instrument.
Third, the problem that arose with Meta’s decision to not do further deals under the code saw many calls for Meta to be designated under the code. This would have meant they would be forced to do deals and potentially face arbitration if the news media businesses were not happy with the outcome.
As the parliamentary committee would be aware, when Canada largely copied the code, it automatically designated Meta. In response, Meta took all news and links to news off its platform. This allows Meta to escape the Canadian version of the code as it only applies to platforms that carry news.
One solution to this is to insist the tech platforms “must carry” news, as suggested in recommendation six. Then they would be back under the code and could be successfully designated and forced to negotiate. It is unclear in the report whether the “must carry” idea, which would make the code relevant to all platforms, is an alternative to the levy.
A way through
Overall, the report provides welcome renewed focus on this topic. By recommending the government “explore” a levy or “investigate” must carry obligations, the committee appears to recognise the potential difficulties with these options.
Would there be international trade implications from a levy? How would money from a levy be distributed? It is one thing to have a fund to help small players in underserved markets; quite another for the government to be distributing money to large media players.
And how would the “must carry” provision be enforced given that carrying content may not be the same as users discovering it?
But there may be a way through these problems. Allow Google to continue as they are under the code, look at what other platforms need to be covered by the code, and threaten that if Meta or another platform were to take news off their site, then a levy or a must carry provision would be introduced. In the case of Meta, such threats, which must be real, could see them revert to doing deals under the code.
To help new and emerging news journalism, particularly in underserved areas, this would seem to require government funding, as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission recommended all the way back in 2018.
Rod Sims is a former chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
For its recent Spring/Summer 2025 show, fashion brand Diesel filled a runway with mounds of denim offcuts, making a spectacle of its efforts to reduce waste.
Haunting yet poetic, the “forgotten” byproducts of fashion production were reclaimed and repurposed into something artful. But the irony isn’t lost, given fashion shows like this one demand significant resources.
Diesel’s event is an example of a growing trend towards the “spectacle of sustainability”, wherein performative displays are prioritised over the deeper, structural changes needed to address environmental issues.
Can the fashion industry reconcile its tendency towards spectacle with its environmental responsibilities? The recent spacesuit collaboration between Prada and Axiom Space is one refreshing example of how it can, by leaning into innovation that seeks to advance fashion technology and rewrite fashion norms.
Performance art instead of substantive change
The fashion industry has always relied on some form of spectacle to continue the fashion cycle. Fashion shows mix art, performance and design to create powerful experiences that will grab people’s attention and set the tone for what’s “in”. Promotional material from these shows is shared widely, helping cement new trends.
However, the spectacle of fashion isn’t helpful for communicating the complexity of sustainability. Fashion events tend to focus on surface-level ideas, while ignoring deeper systemic problems such as the popularity of fast fashion, people’s buying habits, and working conditions in garment factories. These problems are connected, so addressing one requires addressing the others.
It’s much easier to host a flashy event that inevitably feeds the problem it purports to fix. International fashion events have a large carbon footprint. This is partly due to how many people they move around the world, as well as their promotion of consumption (whereas sustainability requires buying less).
The pandemic helped deliver some solutions to this problem by forcing fashion shows to go digital. Brands such as Balenciaga, the Congolese brand Hanifa and many more took part in virtual fashion shows with animated avatars – and many pointed to this as a possible solution to the industry’s sustainability issue.
But the industry has now largely returned to live fashion shows. Virtual presentations have been relegated to their own sectors within fashion communication, while live events take centre stage.
Many brands, including Prada, held fashion shows without guests during lockdowns in 2021.
Towards a sustainable fashion future
Technology and innovation clearly have a role to play in helping make fashion more sustainable. The recent Prada-Axiom spacesuit collaboration brings this into focus in a new way.
The AxEMU (Axiom Extravehicular Mobility Unit) suits will be worn by Artemis III crew members during NASA’s planned 2026 mission to the Moon. The suits have been made using long-lasting and high-performance materials that are designed to withstand the extreme conditions of space.
By joining this collaboration, Prada, known for its high fashion, is shifting into a highly symbolic arena of technological advancement. This will likely help position it at the forefront of sustainability and technology discussions – at least in the minds of consumers.
Prada itself has varying levels of compliance when it comes to meeting sustainability goals. The Standard Ethics Ratings has listed it as “sustainable”, while sustainability scoring site Good on You rated it as “not good enough” – citing a need for improved transparency and better hazardous chemical use.
Recently, the brand has been working on making recycled textiles such as nylon fabrics (nylon is a part of the brand DNA) from fishing nets and plastic bottles. It also launched a high-fashion jewellery line made of recycled gold.
Innovating for a changing world
Prada’s partnership with Axiom signifies a milestone in fashion’s ability to impact on high-tech industries. Beyond boosting Prada’s image, such innovations can also lead to more sustainable fashions.
For instance, advanced materials created for spacesuits could eventually be adapted into everyday heat-resistant clothing. This will become increasingly important in the context of climate change, especially in regions already struggling with drought and heatwaves. The IPCC warns that if global temperatures rise by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, twice as many mega-cities are likely to become heat-stressed.
New innovations are trying to help consumers stay cool despite rising temperatures. Nike’s Aerogami is a performance apparel technology that supposedly increases breathability. Researchers from MIT have also designed garment vents that open and close when they sense sweat to create airflow.
Similarly, researchers from Zhengzhou University and the University of South Australia have created a fabric that reflects sunlight and releases heat to help reduce body temperatures. These kinds of cooling textiles (which could also be used in architecture) could help reduce the need for air conditioning.
One future challenge lies in driving demand for these innovations by making them seem fashionable and “cool”. Collaborations like the one between Prada and Axiom are helpful on this front. A space suit – an item typically seen as a functional, long-lasting piece of engineering – becomes something more with Prada’s name on it.
The collaboration also points to a broader potential for brands to use large attention-grabbing projects to convey their sustainability credentials. In this way they can combine spectacle with sustainability. The key will be in making sure one doesn’t come at the expense of the other.
Alyssa Choat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The Queensland state election is this Saturday, with polls closing at 7pm AEDT. There are 93 single-member seats, with Queensland having no upper house. At the 2020 election, Labor won 52 of the 93 seats, the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34 and all others seven. Labor won the two-party statewide vote by an estimated 53.2–46.8.
There have been two recently released Queensland polls, with both showing a reduction in the LNP lead from landslide margins the last time the same polls were released. However, the LNP is still very likely to win on Saturday.
A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted October 10–16 from a sample of 1,503, gave the LNP a 54.5–45.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the previous YouGov poll in July. Primary votes were 41% LNP (down two), 31% Labor (up five), 11% Greens (down three), 11% One Nation (down two) and 6% for all Others (up two).
Labor premier Steven Miles had a net approval of -10, up three points, with 44% dissatisfied and 34% satisfied. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval slumped 11 points to +6. Crisafulli led Miles by 37–36 as better premier, down from a 40–29 lead in July.
A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted October 14–19 from a sample of 1,003, gave the LNP a 53–47 lead by respondent preferences and a 52–48 lead by 2020 election preference flows. This is the first time Resolve has given a two-party result for its Queensland polls.
Primary votes were 40% LNP (down four since the previous Resolve poll that was conducted over four months from June to September), 32% Labor (up nine), 11% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (up one), 2% independents (down seven) and 5% others (up one).
In its previous polls, Resolve asked all respondents if they would vote for independents. In this poll that was taken after nominations closed, they only asked for independents where independents were standing, so the independent vote crashed.
Crisafulli led Miles by 39–37 as preferred premier (40–27 in September). Miles had a +8 net approval (47% good, 38% poor), while Crisafulli was at net +7 approval. On issues, the LNP led Labor by 22 points on crime, with the two parties were within two points on cost of living, housing and health.
The key reasons why Labor is likely to be defeated are an “it’s time” factor as Labor has governed since winning the January 2015 election, the federal Labor government tending to hurt state Labor parties and Queensland easily being the most pro-Coalition state at the 2022 federal election.
At that election, Queensland was the only state where the Coalition won the two-party vote (by 54.1–45.9). The second best state for the Coalition was New South Wales, where Labor won the two-party vote by 51.4–48.6.
US election still very close, but Harris’ national lead drops
The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–47.2, a gain for Trump since Sunday, when Harris led by 49.1–46.8. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).
Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.
In Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), there’s now a 48.0–48.0 tie in Silver’s poll averages. Harris remains barely ahead in Michigan (15 electoral votes) by 0.5 points, Wisconsin (ten) by 0.7 and Nevada (six) by 0.4. But without Pennsylvania, Harris leads in states
worth 257 electoral votes and Trump in states worth 262, down from a 276–262 Harris lead on Sunday.
On the current numbers, whoever wins Pennsylvania would win the presidency. Trump leads in North Carolina (16 electoral votes) by one point, Georgia (16) by 1.5 and Arizona (11) by two.
Silver’s model now gives Trump a 53% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 51% on Sunday, but the race remains very close to a 50–50 chance for either candidate. There’s a 27% chance Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 51% win probability.
While the polls have trended to Trump recently, that doesn’t mean he will continue to gain. There are still two weeks before the election, and either candidate could win decisively if there’s late movement or poll error in their favour.
With the seven swing states currently all within two points, the two most likely outcomes are for either Trump or Harris to sweep all seven swing states. A Trump sweep occurs 24% of the time and a Harris sweep 15% of the time.
Silver has a list of 24 reasons why Trump could win. I think the most important reasons are the economy and the Electoral College bias. These reasons may explain Trump’s recent poll gains.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
While the New Zealand government plans to review 28 pieces of legislation with a view to changing or repealing references to the Treaty of Waitangi, the science sector is embracing engagement with Māori and leading the way in linking science and Indigenous knowledge at a national scale.
We surveyed 316 researchers from research organisations across New Zealand on their engagement with Māori and their attitudes towards mātauranga Māori (Indigenous knowledge system). We found the majority agree engagement is important and mātauranga Māori is relevant to their research.
Our preliminary findings show most of the surveyed researchers engaged with Māori to some degree in the past and expect to keep doing so in the future. A majority agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with Western science.
But New Zealand has been at the forefront of developing a nationwide approach through the 2007 Vision Mātauranga policy. This science-mātauranga connection has given New Zealand a global lead in how to meaningfully and practically mobilise science and Indigenous knowledge at a national scale.
The merging of Indigenous and Western knowledge is particularly important in the high-tech innovation field. Here, New Zealand’s approach is starting to have real impacts, including supporting innovations and capabilities that would not have happened otherwise.
Through years of engagement with the research and innovation sector, Māori are increasingly expecting the sector to work differently. This means both engaging beyond the laboratory and being open to the possibility that science and mātauranga Māori together can create bold innovation. Examples include supporting Māori businesses to create research and development opportunities in high-value nutrition, or using mātauranga to halt the decline of green-lipped mussels in the Eastern Bay of Plenty.
Mātauranga Māori has been key to restoring green-lipped mussels at Ōhiwa Harbour in the Eastern Bay of Plenty. Getty Images
Some media reports give the impression of a divided research community when it comes to mātauranga Māori. There have also been anecdotal reports suggesting scientists feel “pressured” to include “irrelevant” mātauranga Māori in science applications to win funding.
We questioned whether this divide was real and as widespread as was being reported. We investigated how non-Māori researchers view engagement and collaboration, in particular the role of mātauranga Māori within that engagement.
We examined the responses of the 295 non-Māori scientists in our survey and found 56% agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with Western science. Only 25% disagreed. Moreover, 83% agreed scientists had a duty to consult with Māori if the research had impacts on them.
However, there was a significant gender difference: 75% of women compared to 44% of men agreed mātauranga Māori should be valued on par with science. Only 8% of women disagreed with that statement compared to 34% of men.
Gender differences
As social scientists researching New Zealand’s innovation system, these results quantified our earlier observations in two important respects.
First, it seems that exposing researchers to engagement with Māori communities may create a more open attitude to mātauranga Māori. A key aspect of the past few years has been to broaden the science sector’s engagement with various communities, including Māori.
The Vision Mātauranga policy has been explicit about this in the innovation sector and research and development areas. It appears likely this approach has, at least for some non-Māori researchers, created an openness to consider mātauranga Māori as an equivalent, although different, knowledge framework.
This policy push and Māori community pull has seen scientists in this survey overwhelmingly agree that Māori should be consulted about the impacts research may have on their communities.
Second, while we disagree with the anecdotal evidence that the science community as a whole is split when it comes to mātauranga and engagement with Māori, our results suggest there is a difference between genders. Women researchers in this survey are very positive when it comes to valuing mātauranga Māori, whereas men are relatively less so. We need to study this more deeply to find out why this might be the case.
Shifts in how researchers work
New Zealand’s science, research and innovation sector is in the middle of a structural transition with reviews of its priorities, policy, funding and organisational arrangements.
While central government re-arrangements can happen relatively quickly, the interface between the laboratory, community and industry can take years to adjust. Embedding new practices is complex and not easily done.
The 2007 Vision Mātauranga policy was initially slow, uneven and bumpy in its implementation. But our results suggest its impact has accelerated over the past few years. This includes recognising that working alongside different knowledge systems is valuable for innovation.
Whatever New Zealand’s current restructure of the science sector prioritises, the way researchers work has changed. New Zealand is now at the forefront of global shifts when it comes to links between Indigenous knowledge and science.
Anecdotes aside, accelerating the engagement between Māori and the science sector will be key to delivering the impact Māori and wider New Zealand expect.
Katharina Ruckstuhl received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.
Madeline Judge received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.
Urs Daellenbach received funding from Science for Technological Innovation, National Science Challenge.
For jobseekers these days, staying on benefits is about accumulating points.
It used to be cruder. Until 2022, unemployed Australians who wanted to stay on benefits had to apply for up to 20 jobs per month, a requirement a parliamentary inquiry found
burdens employers, who are receiving masses of poor quality applications often from people who are not suited for the position.
Since July 2022, jobseekers have instead been required to collect points.
Creating or updating a profile earns five points, applying for a job earns five points, attending a job interview earns 25 points, attending a jobs expo earns 25 points, starting a job earns 50 points, and so on.
For most jobseekers the target is 100 points per month. The target can be eased by 20 points for jobseekers who live in locations that have fewer opportunities to work and by 40 points for jobseekers who are carers, have a reduced capacity to work or who are over 55.
Jobseekers who fail to report enough points or who fail to include four job applications per month in total face automatic suspension of benefits.
Workforce Australia.
41% of jobseekers are being failed
New data released by the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations show 41.1% of participants are being tripped up by the system.
In the quarter between April 1 and June 30, 410,485 of the 999,470 jobseekers enrolled in the scheme failed to meet its requirements. And 212,915 of them reported no points whatsoever.
It’s an improvement on the previous year. For April to June 2023, 45.3% of participants failed to get enough points.
First Nations people, refugees, people with disabilities and young people are over-represented among those who fail to get enough points.
My calculations using the department’s data show 58% of Indigenous participants in the program, 49% of participants without a Year 12 education and 47% of participants on youth allowance are failing to meet the requirements.
Around two-thirds of breaches lead to suspensions. Between July 2022 and September 2023 1,838,410 payments were suspended.
My research just published in the Australian Journal of Social Issues finds that a shift away from face-to-face help to online interactions is partly responsible.
When jobseekers find it difficult to talk to humans about why they are unable to accumulate points their payments are more likely to be suspended.
Jobseekers’ fault or the system’s fault?
The Department of Employment has been working hard to increase understanding of the points system. Among other things, it has produced a series of fact sheets aimed at First Nations Australians.
But an independent evaluation of the system prepared for the department in June found two-thirds of the participants in it had little or no knowledge about how it worked.
This suggests the 41% failure rate might be an indictment of the system as much as the jobseekers who use it.
It might even be an indictment of the idea of points to quantify compliance with mutual obligations.
While the committee supported the use of points, it wanted the default requirement halved to 50 points, with human case managers given discretion to vary the target up or down based on their professional judgments.
Simone Casey is employed as a policy advisor at Economic Justice Australia, the peak organisation for community legal centres providing specialist advice to people on their social security issues and rights. The research and analysis for this article was completed in her academic capacity as recently published in the Australian Journal of Social Issues.
Christchurch, New Zealand’s third-largest city, today became the first local government in the country to sanction Israel by voting to halt business with organisations involved in illegal settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories.
It passed a resolution to amend its procurement policy to exclude companies building and maintaining illegal Israeli settlements on Palestinian land.
It was a largely symbolic gesture in that Christchurch (pop. 408,000) currently has no business dealings with any of the companies listed by the United Nations as being active in the illegal settlements.
However, the vote also rules out any future business dealings by the city council with such companies.
The sanctions vote came after passionate pleas to the council by John Minto, president of the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA), and University of Canterbury postcolonial studies lecturer Dr Josephine Varghese.
“We’re delighted the council has taken a stand against Israel’s ongoing theft of Palestinian land,” said Minto in a statement welcoming the vote.
He had urged the council to take a stand against companies identified by the UN Human Rights Council as complicit in the construction and maintenance of the illegal settlements.
‘Failure of Western governments’ “It has been the failure of Western governments to hold Israel to account which means Israel has a 76-year history of oppression and brutal abuse of Palestinians.
“Today Israel is running riot across the Middle East because it has never been held to account for 76 years of flagrant breaches of international law,” Minto said.
“The motion passed by Christchurch City today helps to end Israeli impunity for war crimes.” (Building settlements on occupied land belonging to others is a war crime under international law)
“The motion is a small but significant step in sanctioning Israel. Many more steps must follow”.
The council’s vote to support the UN policy was met with cheers from a packed public gallery. Before the vote, gallery members displayed a “Stop the genocide” banner.
Minto described the decision as a significant step towards aligning with international law and supporting Palestinian rights.
“In relation to the council adopting a policy lined up with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334, this resolution was co-sponsored by the New Zealand government back in 2016,” Minto said, referencing the UN resolution that Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories “had no legal validity and constituted a flagrant violation under international law”.
‘Red herrings and obfuscations’ In his statement, Minto said: “We are particularly pleased the council rejected the red herrings and obfuscations of New Zealand Jewish Council spokesperson Ben Kepes who urged councillors to reject the motion”
“Mr Kepes presentation was a repetition of the tired, old arguments used by white South Africans to avoid accountability for their apartheid policies last century – policies which are mirrored in Israel today.”
Postcolonial studies lecturer Dr Josephine Varghese . . . boycotts “a long standing peaceful means of protest adopted by freedom fighters across the world.” Image: UOC
Dr Varghese said more than 42,000 Palestininians — at least 15,000 of them children — had been killed in Israel’s war on Gaza.
“Boycotting products and services which support and benefit from colonisation and apartheid is the long standing peaceful means of protest adopted by freedom fighters across the world, not only by black South Africans against apartheid, but also in the Indian independent struggle By the lights of Gandhi,” she said.
“This is a rare opportunity for us to follow in the footsteps of these greats and make a historic move, not only for Christchurch City, but also for Aotearoa New Zealand.
“On March 15, 2019 [the date of NZ’s mosque massacre killing 51 people], we made headlines for all the wrong reasons, and today could be an opportunity where we make headlines global globally for the right reasons,” Dr Varghese said.
“Sanctions on Israel” supporters at the Christchurch City Council for the vote today. Image: PSNA
Industrial relations will be hotly contested at next year’s election.
Labor has introduced a raft of new worker protections and pushed for wage increases for lower paid workers.
Business groups have argued against further red tape and claimed the government’s new regulations have contributed to rising costs.
The union movement, meanwhile, has been mired in the fallout from the CFMEU controversy, with some union leaders angry over the government and ACTU’s tough treatment of that union after revelations of its infiltration by criminals.
To talk about these issues and more, we’re joined by ACTU secretary Sally McManus and Innes Willox, the head of the Australian Industry Group, one of the peak employer groups.
On how to fix the construction industry, Willox advocates an oversight body but not the reintroduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission,
We believe that the construction sector does require its own oversight. We had the ABCC previously. We’re not saying go back to that. You don’t have to replicate that model entirely. But the sector has shown that it does require an oversight body that has the ability to launch both civil and criminal claims for poor behaviour. You’re not going to clean it up through sort of task forces and the like, which actually don’t do anything on the ground to change and moderate behaviour.
What other changes to industrial relations would employers want from a Coalition government?
I think what we can expect or hope that the Coalition will look long and hard at things like the right to disconnect. Which came from nowhere. It came out of left field right at the end of a process. It’s created huge uncertainty in workplaces. It’s a bit of a minefield both for employers and employees.
The definition of’casual’ is now a 17-page manual that employers have to work through, rather than a straightforward definition. We’d hope that the Coalition would look at that. And, of course, union right-of-entry powers which have now tilted the balance totally in favour of unions. They’re the sort of things we think that they should look at as a priority and examine what they can do to take off the rough edges that have been put in place there.
On the unions’ wish list from Labor, McManus says they are talking with the government about further action on the issue of equality.
At the moment, the gender pay gap is at the lowest ever recorded. So that’s a good thing. But in terms of equality in the workplace, that issue is still a big one, and there is a big push that we are making for reproductive leave. This isn’t just for women, it’s also for men.
So many women suffer from things like painful periods. Of course, there’s a whole issue of menopause.
For men, there’s a whole lot of issues to do with reproductive issues as well. […] So this is something that we are talking to the government about and campaigning around.
Another issue is that of youth wages:
It’s really totally outrageous that 19, 20-year-olds are paid discount wages in Australia. It’s not acceptable in 2024-2025 and should be fixed. The union movement’s taking it up at the moment and have got rid of it in a lot of industries, and we want to finish the job. So we’re going to try and achieve that through campaigning and through the industrial commission. But if we don’t, if there’s no way of fixing it that way, there’ll be no option then other than to say to the government, listen, ball’s in your court now.
On the split in the union movement over the government and ACTU actions against the construction division of the CFMEU, McManus says the ACTU will continue to keep its door open,
Look, no one likes what’s happened. No one likes the fact that, obviously, that union was infiltrated by organised crime, outlaw motorcycle gangs. And no one supports corruption. The other construction union who works with the CFMEU all the time, which is the ETU, the Electrical Trades Union – they’re the ones who have disaffiliated from the ACTU.
They’re mates, they’re all mates, right? And so, obviously, they’re also not happy with what’s happened. And obviously we will always keep the door open and encourage unity. The ACTU is a place where truck drivers and community workers and teachers and nurses and road workers, everyone of every profession, gets together and talks. It’s always a good thing because you’re listening to other people and you’re stronger together.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
With Prabowo Subianto, a controversial former general installed as Indonesia’s new president, residents in the disputed Papua region were responding to this reality with anxiety and, for some, cautious optimism.
The remote and resource-rich region has long been a flashpoint for conflict, with its people enduring decades of alleged military abuse and human rights violations under Indonesian rule and many demanding independence.
Many Papuans remain haunted by past abuses, particularly those associated with Indonesia’s counterinsurgency campaigns that began after Papua was incorporated into Indonesia in 1969 through a disputed UN-backed referendum.
For people like Maurids Yansip, a private sector employee in Sentani, Prabowo’s rise to the presidency is a cause for serious concern.
“I am worried,” Yansip said. “Prabowo talked about using a military approach to address Papua’s issues during the presidential debates.
‘Military worsened hunman rights’ “We’ve seen how the military presence has worsened the human rights situation in this region. That’s not going to solve anything — it will only lead to more violations.”
In Jayapura, the region’s capital, Musa Heselo, a mechanic at a local garage, expressed indifference toward the political changes unfolding in Jakarta.
“I didn’t vote in the last election—whether for the president or the legislature,” Heselo said.
“Whoever becomes president is not important to me, as long as Papua remains safe so we can make a living. I don’t know much about Prabowo’s background.”
But such nonchalance is rare in a region where memories of military crackdowns run deep.
Prabowo, a former son-in-law of Indonesia’s late dictator Suharto, has long been a polarising figure. His career, marked by accusations of human rights abuses, particularly during Indonesia’s occupation of Timor-Leste, continues to evoke strong reactions.
In 1996, during his tenure with the elite Indonesian Army special forces unit, Kopassus, Prabowo commanded a high-stakes rescue of 11 hostages from a scientific research team held by Free Papua Movement (OPM) fighters.
Deadly operation The operation was deadly, resulting in the deaths of two hostages and eight pro-independence fighters.
Markus Haluk, executive secretary of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP), described Prabowo’s presidency as a grim continuation of what he calls a “slow-motion genocide” of the Papuan people.
“Prabowo’s leadership will extend Indonesia’s occupation of Papua,” Haluk said, his tone resolute.
“The genocide, ethnocide, and ecocide will continue. We remember our painful history — this won’t be forgotten. We could see military operations return. This will make things worse.”
Although he has never been convicted and denies any involvement in abuses in East Timor or Papua, these allegations continue to cast a shadow over his political rise.
He ran for president in 2014 and again in 2019, both times unsuccessfully. His most recent victory, which finally propels him to Indonesia’s highest office, has raised questions about the future of Papua.
President Prabowo Subianto greets people as he rides in a car after his inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, last Sunday. Image: Asprilla Dwi Adha/Antara Foto
Despite these concerns, some see Prabowo’s presidency as a potential turning point — albeit a fraught one. Elvira Rumkabu, a lecturer at Cendrawasih University in Jayapura, is among those who view his military background as a possible double-edged sword.
Prabowo’s military experience ‘may help’ “Prabowo’s military experience and strategic thinking could help control the military in Papua and perhaps even manage the ultranationalist forces in Jakarta that oppose peace,” Rumkabu told BenarNews.
“But I also worry that he might delegate important issues, like the peace agenda in Papua, to his vice-president.”
Under outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, Papua’s development was often portrayed as a priority, but the reality on the ground told a different story. While Jokowi made high-profile visits to the region, his administration’s reliance on military operations to suppress pro-independence movements continued.
“This was a pattern we saw under Jokowi, where Papua’s problems were relegated to lower levels, diminishing their urgency,” Rumkabu said.
Yohanes Mambrasar, a human rights activist based in Sorong, expressed grave concerns about the future under Prabowo.
“Prabowo’s stance on strengthening the military in Papua was clear during his campaign,” Mambrasar said.
Called for ‘more troops, weapons’ “He called for more troops and more weapons. This signals a continuation of militarized policies, and with it, the risk of more land grabs and violence against indigenous Papuans.”
Earlier this month, Indonesian military chief Gen. Agus Subiyanto inaugurated five new infantry battalions in Papua, stating that their mandate was to support both security operations and regional development initiatives.
Indeed, the memory of past military abuses looms large for many in Papua, where calls for independence have never abated.
During a presidential debate, Prabowo vowed to strengthen security forces in Papua.
“If elected, my priority will be to uphold the rule of law and reinforce our security presence,” he said, framing his approach as essential to safeguarding the local population.
Yet, amid the fears, some see opportunities for positive change.
Yohanes Kedang from the Archdiocese of Merauke said that improving the socio-economic conditions of indigenous Papuans must be a priority for Prabowo.
Education, health care ‘left behind’ “Education, healthcare, and the economy — these are areas where Papuans are still far behind,” he said.
“This will be Prabowo’s real challenge. He needs to create policies that bring real improvements to the lives of indigenous Papuans, especially in the southern regions like Merauke, which has immense potential.”
Theo Hesegem, executive director of the Papua Justice and Human Integrity Foundation, believes that dialogue is key to resolving the region’s long-standing issues.
“Prabowo has the power to address the human rights violations in Papua,” Hesegem said.
“But he needs to listen. He should come to Papua and sit down with the people here — not just with officials, but with civil society, with the people on the ground,” he added.
France’s Supreme Court has overturned a judgment imprisoning pretrial in mainland France Kanak pro-independence leader Christian Tein, who is widely regarded as a political prisoner, reports Libération.
Tein, who is head of the CCAT (Field Action Coordination Unit) in New Caledonia was in August elected president of the main pro-independence umbrella group Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS).
He has been accused by the French authorities of “masterminding” the violence that spread across New Caledonia in May.
The deadly unrest is estimated to have caused €2.2 billion (NZ$3.6 billion) in infrastructural damage, resulting in the destruction of nearly 800 businesses and about 20,000 job losses.
In this new legal twist, the jailing in mainland France of Tein and another activist, Steve Unë, was ruled “invalid” by the court.
“On Tuesday, October 22, the Court of Cassation in Paris overturned the July 5 ruling of the investigating chamber of the Noumea Court of Appeal, which had confirmed his detention in mainland France,” reports NC la 1ère TV.
“The Kanak independence activist, imprisoned in Mulhouse since June, will soon have to appear before a judge again who will decide his fate,” the report said.
Kanak activists’ cases reviewed The court examined the appeal of five Kanak pro-independence activists — including Tein – who had challenged their detention in mainland France on suspicion of having played a role in the unrest in New Caledonia, reports RFI News.
This appeal considered in particular “the decision by the judges in Nouméa to exile the defendants without any adversarial debate, and the conditions under which the transfer was carried out,” according to civil rights attorney François Roux, one of the defendants’ lawyers.
“Many of them are fathers, cut off from their children,” the lawyer said.
The transfer of five activists to mainland France at the end of June was organised overnight using a specially chartered plane, according to Nouméa public prosecutor Yves Dupas, who has argued that it was necessary to continue the investigations “in a calm manner”.
Roux has denounced the “inhumane conditions” in which they were transported.
“They were strapped to their seats and handcuffed throughout the transfer, even to go to the toilet, and they were forbidden to speak,” he said.
Left-wing politicians in France have also slammed the conditions of detainees, who they underline were deported more than 17,000 km from their home for resisting “colonial oppression”.
Another legal twist over arrested Kanaks . . . Christian Tein wins Supreme Court appeal. Image: APR screenshot Libération
Total of seven accused A total of seven activists from the CCAT separatist coalition are accused by the French government of orchestrating deadly riots earlier this year and are currently incarcerated – the five in various prisons in France and two in New Caledonia itself.
They are under investigation for, among other things, complicity in attempted murder, organised gang theft with a weapon, organised gang destruction of another person’s property by a means dangerous to people and participation in a criminal association with a view to planning a crime.
Two CCAT activists who were initially imprisoned have since been placed under house arrest in mainland France.
Tein, born in 1968, has consistently denied having incited violence, claiming to be a political prisoner.
The U.S. Supreme Court recently weighed in on these debates with its 2024 decision in Grants Pass v. Johnson. The court’s ruling grants cities the authority to prohibit individuals from sleeping and camping in public spaces, effectively condoning the use of fines and bans to address rising rates of homelessness.
East Atlanta Village, a historically Black neighborhood in Atlanta with about 3,000 residents, is trying something different. In the fall of 2023, with support from the Atlanta City Council, the mayor’s office and Intown Cares, a local nonprofit that works to alleviate homelessness and hunger, the neighborhood hired a full-time social worker to support people experiencing homelessness.
Michael Nolan, an Intown Cares social worker, is trained in an approach that emphasizes individual autonomy and dignity, recognizes that being homeless is a traumatic experience, and prioritizes access to housing. His role includes helping individuals get the documentation they need to move off the streets, such as copies of their birth certificates and Social Security cards. He also has a dedicated phone line that community members can use to alert him about dangerous situations that involve homeless people.
Michael Nolan, East Atlanta Village’s social worker, spends 40-plus hours weekly providing supplies, services and other help to people experiencing homelessness.
I am a researcher at the University of Washington studying programs and technologies that help urban neighborhoods flourish. I’m also a resident of East Atlanta Village and have helped the neighborhood organize and evaluate this experiment.
For the past year, my colleagues and I have collected data about the neighborhood social work program to understand how well it can support both people without housing and the broader community. Our preliminary findings suggest that neighborhood social work is a promising way to address challenges common in many neighborhoods with homelessness.
I believe this approach has the potential to provide long-term solutions to homelessness and improve the health and safety for the entire neighborhood. I also see it as a sharp contrast with the punitive approach condoned by the Supreme Court.
Resolving conflicts over public space
One of the people I interviewed while evaluating this initiative was Rebecca, a resident of East Atlanta Village who walks her dog in the local park every day. In the fall of 2023, she noticed that a man had moved into the park and set up a tent. At first, the area was clean, but within a few weeks there was garbage around the tent and throughout the park.
Rebecca felt that the trash was ruining one of the few green spaces in the neighborhood. She decided to contact Nolan. Nolan told her that he knew the unhoused man, was working with him to secure permanent housing and in the meantime would help him move his tent to a less-frequented space.
Such negotiations around public spaces are common challenges for neighborhoods with large homeless populations, especially in dense urban areas. Other examples in our data included conflicts when a homeless person began sleeping in his car outside another resident’s home, and when a homeless man wandered into a homeowner’s yard.
The standard approach in these situations is to fine, ban or imprison the unhoused individual. But those strategies are expensive, can prolong homelessness and do little to actually resolve the issues.
In contrast, hiring a social worker has enabled East Atlanta Village to resolve conflicts gently, through conversation and negotiation. The solutions address concerns about public health and safety and also offer people without homes an opportunity for long-term change.
Meeting basic needs
Over the past year, this program has helped 13 people move into housing. Nolan has facilitated over 180 medical and mental health care visits for people living on the street.
Eighty-six people have been connected to Medicaid, food assistance or Social Security benefits. Thirty-five people have health care for the first time, and six people have started receiving medication for their addictions.
Research shows that addressing people’s basic needs by helping them obtain food, medicine, housing and other necessities not only supports those individuals but also produces cascading benefits for the entire community. They include reduced inequality, better health outcomes and lower crime rates.
Managing mental and behavioral health
Studies have found that about two-thirds of unhoused individuals struggle with mental health challenges. Unmet mental and behavioral health needs can contribute to unsafe and illegal behavior.
The United States does not have a comprehensive system in place for supporting people who are living on the street and struggling with chronic mental and behavioral health challenges. While much more infrastructure is needed, in East Atlanta Village, Nolan is able to check in on people experiencing homelessness, work with clinics to deliver medication for addiction and mental health needs and alert community members about dangerous situations.
As an example, in December 2023 a homeless man was arrested in East Atlanta Village for trespassing, stealing mail and other erratic behavior. When concerned residents posted to the neighborhood Facebook group, Nolan responded that he knew the man well, that this behavior was not typical and that he would look into the situation.
Nolan later updated his post, commenting that the man had been arrested but that he would “continue to follow up and ensure that his current behaviors do not return upon his release.”
In other examples, Nolan has helped de-escalate situations when people experienced mental health episodes in local coffee shops and churches.
A model for other cities
Cities around the U.S. have decisions to make about addressing homelessness and its associated challenges. Neighborhood social work is not a magic bullet, but my colleagues and I see it as a promising approach to address the most common challenges that neighborhoods with high rates of homelessness face.
East Atlanta Village is currently working with the Atlanta City Council to renew funding for this program, which cost US$100,000 in its initial year. We hope that other neighborhoods also consider this strategy when deciding how to address homelessness in their own areas.
Ishita Chordia is affiliated with the East Atlanta Neighborhood Association. She volunteers for the neighborhood association and has helped organize and evaluate the neighborhood social work program.
This week, the territory, torn apart by violent riots, is to receive a Pacific Islands Forum fact-finding mission comprised of four prime ministers.
New Caledonia has been riven with violence and destruction for much of the past five months, resulting in 13 deaths and countless cases of arson.
Islands Business journalist Nic Maclellan is back there for the first time since the rioting began on May 13 and RNZ Pacific asked for his first impressions.
Nic Maclellan: Day by day, things are very calm. It’s been a beautiful weekend, and there were people at the beach in the southern suburbs of Nouméa. People are going about their daily business. And on the surface, you don’t really notice that there’s been months of clashes between Kanak protesters and French security forces.
But every now and then, you stumble across a site that reminds you that this crisis is still, in many ways, unresolved. As you leave Tontouta Airport, the main gateway to the islands, for example, the airport buildings are surrounded by razor wire.
The French High Commission, which has a very high grill, is also topped with razor wire. It’s little things like that that remind you, that despite the removal of barricades which have dotted both Noumea and the main island for months, there are still underlying tensions that are unresolved.
And all of this comes at a time of enormous economic crisis, with key industries like tourism and nickel badly affected by months of dispute. Thousands of people either lost their jobs, or on part-time employment, and uncertainty about what capacity the French government brings from Paris to resolve long standing problems.
Don Wiseman: Well, New Caledonia is looking for a lot of money in grant form. Is it going to get it?
NMac: With, people I’ve spoken to in the last few days and with statements from major political parties, there’s enormous concern that political leaders in France don’t understand the depth of the crisis here; political, cultural, economic. President Macron, after losing the European Parliament elections, then seeing significant problems during the National Assembly elections that he called the snap votes, finds that there’s no governing majority in the French Parliament.
It took 51 days to appoint a new prime minister, another few weeks to appoint a government, and although France’s Overseas Minister Francois Noel Buffet visited last week, made a number of pledges, which were welcomed, there was sharp criticism, particularly from anti-independence leaders, from the so called loyalists, that France hadn’t recognised the enormity of what’s happened, and to translate that into financial commitments.
The Congress of New Caledonia passed a bipartisan, or all party proposal, for significant funding over the next five years, amounting to almost 4 billion euros, a vast sum, but money required to rebuild shattered economic institutions and restore public institutions that were damaged during months of riots and arson, is not there.
France faces, in Metropolitan France, a major fiscal crisis. The current Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced they cut $250 million out of funding for overseas territories. There’s a lot of work going on across the political spectrum, from politicians in New Caledonia, trying to make Paris understand that this is significant.
DW: Does Paris understand what happened in New Caledonia back in the 1980s?
NMac: Some do. I think there’s a real problem, though, that there’s a consistency of French policy that is reluctant to engage with France’s responsibilities as what the United Nations calls it, “administering power of a non-self-governing territory”.
You know, it’s a French colony. The Noumea Accord said that there should be a transition towards a new political status, and that situation is unresolved. Just this morning (Tuesday), I attended the session of the Congress of New Caledonia, which voted in majority that the provincial elections should be delayed until late next year, late 2025.
The aim would be to give time for the French State and both supporters and opponents of independence to meet to talk out a new political statute to replace the 1998 Noumea Accord. However, it’s clear from different perspectives that have been expressed in the Congress that there’s not a meeting of minds about the way forward. And key independence parties in the umbrella coalition, the FLNKS make it clear that they only see a comprehensive agreement possible if there’s a pathway forward towards sovereignty, even with a period of inter-dependence with France and over time to be negotiated.
The loyalists believe that that’s not a priority, that economic reconstruction is the priority, and a talk of sovereignty at this time is inappropriate. So, there’s a long way to go before the French can bring people together around the negotiating table, and that will play out in coming weeks.
DW: The new Overseas Minister seems to have taken a very conciliatory approach. That must be helpful.
NMac: For months and months, the FLNKS said that they were willing to discuss electoral reforms, opening up the voting rolls for the local political institutions to more French nationals, particularly New Caledonian-born citizens, but that it had to be part of a comprehensive, overarching agreement.
The very fact that President Macron tried to force key independence parties, particularly the largest, Union Caledoniénne, to the negotiating table by unilaterally trying to push through changes to these voting rules triggered the crisis that began on the 13th of May.
After five months of terrible destruction of schools, of hospitals, thousands of people, literally leaving New Caledonia, Macron has realised that you can’t push this through by force. As you say, Overseas Minister Buffet had a more conciliatory tone. He reconfirmed that the controversial reforms to the electoral laws have been abandoned. Doesn’t mean they won’t come back up in discussions in the future, but we’re back at square one in many ways, and yet there’s been five months of really terrible conflict between supporters and opponents of independence.
The fact that this is unresolved is shown by the reality that the French High Commissioner has announced that the overnight curfew is extended until early November, that the French police and security forces that have been deployed here, more than 6000 gendarmes, riot squads backed by armoured cars, helicopters and more, will be held until at least the end of the year.
This crisis is unresolved, and I think as Pacific leaders arrive this week, they’ll have to look beyond the surface calm to realise that there are many issues that still have to play out in the months to come.
DW: So with this Forum visit, how free will these people be to move around to make their own assessments?
NMac: I sense that there’s a tension between the government of New Caledonia and the French authorities about the purpose of this visit. In the past, French diplomats have suggested that the Forum is welcome to come, to condemn violence, to address the question of reconstruction and so on.
But I sense a reluctance to address issues around France’s responsibility for decolonisation, at the same time, key members of the delegation, such as Prime Minister Manele of Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Rabuka, have strong contacts through the Melanesian Spearhead Group, with members of the FLNKS and the broader political networks here. To that extent, there’ll be informal as well as formal dialogue. As the Forum members hit the ground after a long delay to their mission.
DW: There have been in the past, Forum groups that have gone to investigate various situations, and they’ve tended to take a very superficial view of everything that’s going on.
NMac: I think there are examples where the Forum missions have been very important. For example, in 2021 at the time of the third referendum on self-determination, the one rushed through by the French State in the middle of the covid pandemic, a delegation led by Ratu Inoke Kubuabola, a former Fiji Foreign Minister, with then Secretary-General of the Forum, Henry Puna, they wrote a very strong report criticising the legitimacy and credibility of that vote, because the vast majority of independence supporters, particularly indigenous Kanaks, didn’t turn out for the vote.
France claims it’s a strong no vote, but the Forum report, which most people haven’t read, actually questions the legitimacy of this politically. The very fact that four prime ministers are coming, not diplomats, not ministers, not just officials, but four prime ministers of Forum member countries, shows that this is an important moment for regional engagement.
Right from the beginning of the crisis, the then chair of the Forum, Mark Brown, who’ll be on the delegation, talked about the need for the Forum to create a neutral space for dialogue, for talanoa, to resolve long standing differences.
The very presence of them, although it hasn’t had much publicity here so far, will be a sign that this is not an internal matter for France, but in fact a matter of regional and international attention.
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
A deadly ambush unfolded in Enga province between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. last night, leaving multiple people dead after a bus was attacked by armed men.
Police confirmed to the Post-Courier that bodies were found both inside the bus and scattered in nearby bushland. Men and women attempting to flee the gunfire were gunned down before they could get far.
Witnesses reported that the bus, a public motor vehicle (PMV), was riddled with bullets during the ambush.
Blood and bodies lay strewn across the area when a distress call alerted police at Surunki station to the tragic scene.
The PMV was later escorted to Wabag General Hospital, where the bodies were removed. Hospital staff have warned that more victims may still arrive.
Local MP Aimos Akem attributed the deaths to escalating violence linked to ongoing conflict in Porgera, saying it continues to take a heavy toll on the people of Lagaip.
Republished from the PNG Post-Courier with permission.
Scurvy is is often considered a historical ailment, conjuring images of sailors on long sea voyages suffering from a lack of fresh fruit and vegetables.
Yet doctors in developed countries have recently reported treating cases of scurvy, including Australian doctors who reported their findings today in the journal BMJ Case Reports.
What is scurvy?
Scurvy is a disease caused by a severe deficiency of vitamin C (ascorbic acid), which is essential for the production of collagen. This protein helps maintain the health of skin, blood vessels, bones and connective tissue.
Without enough vitamin C, the body cannot properly repair tissues, heal wounds, or fight infections. This can lead to a range of symptoms including:
fatigue and weakness
swollen, bleeding gums or loose teeth
joint and muscle pain and tenderness
bruising easily
dry, rough or discoloured skin (reddish or purple spots due to bleeding under the skin)
cuts and sores take longer to heal
anaemia (a shortage of red blood cells, leading to further fatigue and weakness)
increased susceptibility to infections.
It historically affected sailors
Scurvy was common from the 15th to 18th centuries, when naval sailors and other explorers lived on rations or went without fresh food for long periods. You might have heard some of these milestones in the history of the disease:
in 1497-1499, Vasco da Gama’s crew suffered severely from scurvy during their expedition to India, with a large portion of the crew dying from it
from the 16th to 18th centuries, scurvy was rampant among European navies and explorers, affecting notable figures such as Ferdinand Magellan and Sir Francis Drake. It was considered one of the greatest threats to sailors’ health during long voyages
in 1747, British naval surgeon James Lind is thought to have conducted one of the first clinical trials, demonstrating that citrus fruit could prevent and cure scurvy. However, it took several decades for his findings to be widely implemented
In the new case report, doctors in Western Australia reported treating a middle-aged man with the condition. In a separate case report, doctors in Canada reported treating a 65-year old woman.
There’s an abundance of vitamin C in our food supply, but some people still aren’t getting enough. Rebecca Kate/Pexels
Both patients presented with leg weakness and compromised skin, yet the doctors didn’t initially consider scurvy. This was based on the premise that there is abundant vitamin C in our modern food supply, so deficiency should not occur.
On both occasions, treatment with high doses of vitamin C (1,000mg per day for at least seven days) resulted in improvements in symptoms and eventually a full recovery.
The authors of both case reports are concerned that if scurvy is left untreated, it could lead to inflamed blood vessels (vasculitis) and potentially cause fatal bleeding.
Last year, a major New South Wales hospital undertook a chart review, where patient records are reviewed to answer research questions.
This found vitamin C deficiency was common. More than 50% of patients who had their vitamin C levels tested had either a modest deficiency (29.9%) or significant deficiency (24.5%). Deficiencies were more common among patients from rural and lower socioeconomic areas.
Now clinicians are urged to consider vitamin C deficiency and scurvy as a potential diagnosis and involve the support of a dietitian.
Why might scurvy be re-emerging?
Sourcing and consuming nutritious foods with sufficient vitamin C is unfortunately still an issue for some people. Factors that increase the risk of vitamin C deficiency include:
poor diet. People with restricted diets – due to poverty, food insecurity or dietary choices – may not get enough vitamin C. This includes those who rely heavily on processed, nutrient-poor foods rather than fresh produce
food deserts. In areas where access to fresh, affordable fruits and vegetables is limited (often referred to as food deserts), people may unintentionally suffer from a vitamin C deficiency. In some parts of developing countries such as India, lack of access to fresh food is recognised as a risk for scurvy
the cost-of-living crisis. With greater numbers of people unable to pay for fresh produce, people who limit their intake of fruits and vegetables may develop nutrient deficiencies, including scurvy
Capsicums are a good source of vitamin D but they’re not cheap. Pexels/Jack Sparrow
weight loss procedures and medications. Restricted dietary intake due to weight loss surgery or weight loss medications may lead to nutrient deficiencies, such as in this case report of scurvy from Denmark
mental illness and eating disorders. Conditions such as depression and anorexia nervosa can lead to severely restricted diets, increasing the risk of scurvy, such as in this case report from 2020 in Canada
isolation. Older adults, especially those who live alone or in nursing homes, may have difficulty preparing balanced meals with sufficient vitamin C
certain medical conditions. People with digestive disorders, malabsorption issues, or those on restrictive medical diets (due to severe allergies or intolerances) can develop scurvy if they are unable to absorb or consume enough vitamin C.
How much vitamin C do we need?
Australia’s dietary guidelines recommend adults consume 45mg of vitamin C (higher if pregnant or breastfeeding) each day. This is roughly the amount found in half an orange or half a cup of strawberries.
When more vitamin C is consumed than required, excess amounts leave the body through urine.
Signs of scurvy can appear as early as a month after a daily intake of less than 10 mg of vitamin C.
Eating vitamin C-rich foods – such as oranges, strawberries, kiwifruit, plums, pineapple, mango, capsicum, broccoli and Brussels sprouts – can resolve symptoms within a few weeks.
Vitamin C is also readily available as a supplement if there are reasons why intake through food may be compromised. Typically, the supplements contain 1,000mg per tablet, and the recommended upper limit for daily Vitamin C intake is 2,000mg.
Lauren Ball receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of Food Standards Australia and New Zealand, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.
The Ocean Declaration that will be agreed upon at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) this week will be known as the Apia Ocean Declaration.
In an exclusive interview with the Samoa Observer, Commonwealth Secretary-General Patricia Scotland said members were in a unique position to bring their voices together for the oceans, which have long been neglected.
“The Apia Ocean Declaration aims to address the rising threats to our ocean faces, especially from climate change and rising sea levels,” she said.
Commonwealth pushes for ocean protection with historic Apia Ocean Declaration. Video: Samoa Observer
Scotland, reflecting on her tenure as Secretary-General, noted the privilege of serving the Commonwealth, a diverse family of 56 countries comprising 2.7 billion people.
“I am very much the child of the Commonwealth. With 60 percent of our population under 30 years, we must prioritise their future.”
Scotland reflected that upon assuming her role, she recognised immediately that addressing climate change would be a key priority for the Commonwealth.
“Why? Because we have 33 small states, 25 small island states and we were the ones who were really suffering this badly,” she said.
Pacific a ‘big blue ocean state’ “We also knew in 2016 that nobody was looking at the oceans. Now, the Pacific is a big blue ocean state.
“But it’s one of the most under-resourced elements that we have. And yet, look at what was happening. The hurricanes and the cyclones were getting bigger and bigger.
“Why? Because our ocean had absorbed so much of the heat, so much of the carbon, and now it was starting to become saturated. So before, our ocean acted as a coolant. The cyclone would come, the hurricane would come, they’d pass over our cool blue water, and the heat would be drawn out.”
The Apia Ocean Declaration emerged from a pressing need to protect the oceans, especially given the devastating impact of climate change on coastal and island nations.
“We realised that while many discussions were happening globally, the oceans were often overlooked,” Scotland remarked.
“In 2016, we recognised the necessity for collective action. Our oceans absorb much of the carbon and heat, leading to increasingly severe hurricanes and cyclones.”
Scotland has spearheaded initiatives that brought together oceanographers, climatologists, and various stakeholders.
Commonwealth Secretary-General Patricia Scotland . . . discussing this week’s planned Apia Ocean Declaration at CHOGM, highlighting the urgent need for global action to protect oceans. Image: Junior S. Ami/Samoa Observer
Worked in silos ‘for too long’ “We worked in silos for too long. It was time to unite our efforts for the ocean’s health.
“That’s when we realised that nobody had their eye on our oceans, but of the 56 Commonwealth members, many of us are island states, so our whole life is dependent on our ocean. And so that’s when the fight back happened.”
This collaboration resulted in the establishment of the Commonwealth Blue Charter, a significant framework focused on ocean conservation.
“Fiji’s presidency at the UN Oceans Conference was a turning point. Critics said it would take years to establish an ocean instrument, but we achieved it in less than ten months.”
“We are not just talking; we are implementing solutions.”
Scotland also addressed the financial challenges faced by many small island states, particularly regarding climate funding.
“In 2009, $100 billion was promised by those who had been primarily responsible for the climate crisis, to help those of us who contributed almost nothing to get over the hump.
Hard for finance applications “But the money wasn’t coming. And in those days, many of our members found it so hard to put those applications together.”
To combat this issue, the Commonwealth established a Climate Finance Access Hub, facilitating over $365 million in funding for member states with another $500 million in the pipeline.
“But this has caused us to say we have to go further,” she added.
“We’re using geospatial data, we have to fill in the gaps for our members who don’t have the data, so we can look at what has happened in the past, what may happen in the future, and now we have AI to help us do the simulators.
“The Ocean Ministers’ Conference highlighted the importance of ensuring that countries at risk of disappearing under the waves can maintain their maritime jurisdiction,” Scotland asserted.
“The thing that we thought was so important is that those countries threatened with the rising of the sea, which could take away their whole island, don’t have certainty in terms of that jurisdiction. What will happen if our islands drop below the sea level?
“And we wanted our member states to be confident that if they had settled their marine boundaries, that jurisdiction would be set in perpetuity. Because that was the biggest guarantee; I may lose my land, but please don’t tell me I’m going to lose my ocean too.
Target an ocean declaration “So that was the target for the Ocean Ministers’ Conference. And out of that came the idea that we would have an ocean declaration.
“It is that ocean declaration that we are bringing here to Samoa. And the whole poignancy of that is Samoa is the first small island state in the Pacific ever to host CHOGM. So wouldn’t it be beautiful if out of this big blue ocean state, this wonderful Pacific state, we could get an ocean declaration which could in the future be able to be known as the Apia Ocean Declaration? Because we would really mark what we’re doing here.
“What the Commonwealth has been determined to do throughout this whole period is not just talk, but take positive action to help our members not only just to survive, but to thrive.
“And if, which I hope we will, we get an agreement from our 56 states on this ocean declaration, it enables us to put the evidence before everyone, not only to secure what we need, but then to say 0.05 percent of the money is not enough to save our oceans.
“Oceans are the most underfunded area.
“I hope that all the work we’ve done on the Universal Vulnerability Index, on the nature of the vulnerability for our members, will be able to justify proper money, proper resources being put in.
“And you know what’s happening in this area; our fishermen are under threat.
“Our ability to use the oceans in the way we’ve used for millennia to feed our people, support our people, is really under threat. So this CHOGM is our fight back.”
As the meeting progresses, the emphasis remains on achieving consensus among the 56 member states regarding the Apia Ocean Declaration.
Republished from the Samoa Observer with permission.
Australia now has a government and parliament wanting timely transition to net zero. We have a government and parliament wanting to build Australia as the renewable energy superpower of the zero-carbon world economy. For the time being, we have favourable international settings for using our opportunity.
The government of Australia has embraced this superpower narrative, taken some big steps towards supporting its emergence, and articulated sound principles for guiding further policy development.
But Australians in business and the community wanting to make large efforts to turn opportunity into reality find themselves in a tangle of policy uncertainty and contradiction.
The source of the problem is the abolition of carbon pricing in 2014. Since then, the Commonwealth government has worked within constraints that rule out success.
We can make a start towards net zero and becoming a renewable energy superpower without moving the constraints, but we can’t get far. This is a problem for any government of Australia, and not only for the current Labor government. We will not rise sustainably out of the post-pandemic dog days until we get energy policy right.
Striking the right balance
Striking the right balance between state intervention and market exchange is always essential for successful economic development, in all places.
The market generally delivers goods and services more cost-effectively than the state where there is genuine competition among suppliers and purchasers of goods and services.
The difference is especially large and important at a time of structural change and uncertainty. State decisions inevitably tend towards continuation on established paths and slow response to new opportunities.
Australia will not make use of more than a small fraction of the superpower opportunities available to it without immense contributions from an innovative, competitive private business sector.
So we have to design energy and related markets that provide the widest possible scope for competition among enterprises within clear rules understood in advance of investment decisions by all market participants.
The state has to do well the things that only the state can do. Because government capacity is a finite resource, it is much more likely that it will do the essential things well if it doesn’t try to do the things that markets do well.
The state must define the boundaries between the services that it delivers and those to be delivered by the market.
In the electricity sector, government must take responsibility for design of the market rules and compliance with them. It must provide the natural monopoly services of electricity transmission and hydrogen transportation and storage. It must take ultimate responsibility for system security and reliability.
For any market to work, individual market participants must be blocked by regulation from damaging others through their business decisions, or subject to a tax equal to the costs they impose on others. And they must be rewarded for large benefits that they confer on others.
This is essential economics. Its understatement in Productivity Commission and financial media commentary on energy and climate policy discussion over the past decade reveals the debasement of Australian political culture that gave us the dog days.
It has been politically incorrect to tell the truth out loud.
It’s time for carbon pricing
A crucial element of post-2030 market design is introduction of a green premium for zero-carbon energy.
It is obviously necessary for low-cost decarbonisation and expansion of the electricity sector and building Australia as a renewable energy superpower. The green premium is crucial for securing international market access for the zero-carbon export industries.
One of the dog days constraints on policy is that there should be no mandatory demands on private investors. Those constraints must be broken for the green premium to reflect the social cost of carbon, as it must if we are to achieve net zero by 2050 and build Australia as the renewable energy superpower.
The economically efficient way of achieving the premium is carbon pricing. It would be most efficient within an economy-wide system, although it could be introduced initially for the electricity sector and extended to other industries later.
Investors now need to know soon that there will be a premium reasonably related to the social cost of carbon after the Renewable Energy Target ends in 2030.
What matters for the superpower industries is the green premiums for which they are eligible in other countries. Pending the emergence of appropriate premiums, the Commonwealth is proposing payments from the budget.
That is appropriate. It can get the early movers started. It would be expensive if it continued for long. The superpower industries will grow rapidly if they have access to premiums corresponding to the social cost of carbon. Over time, payments from the Australian budget will be replaced by market premiums in destination countries.
There are several possible forms of carbon pricing. The system operating in Australia from 2012 to 2014 was economically and environmentally efficient.
It would have been linked to the EU Emissions Trading System from July 1 2014 if it had not been abolished the day before. The Australian carbon price would be equal to the European price. We would be introducing a European-type Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to ensure that Australian producers were not disadvantaged by competition in the domestic market from suppliers who were not subject to similar carbon constraints. The ETS (emissions trading scheme) would be contributing around 2% of GDP to public revenues – going a substantial part of the way to answering the daunting budget challenge to restoration of Australian prosperity.
Part of that increased revenue could support payments to power users to ensure there was no increase in power prices to users until expansion of renewable generation and storage had brought costs down – along the lines of the A$300 per household introduced in the 2024 budget, but larger.
The arrangements would provide automatic access for zero-carbon Australian goods to the high-priced European market. There would be no need to provide for a green premium for sales to Europe from the Australian market. The green premiums in other markets would at first need to be covered, as they are now, from the Australian public revenue.
A carbon solutions levy
Rod Sims (former chair of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission) and I have suggested a carbon solutions levy. It is administratively simpler than the ETS. It would initially raise much more revenue.
We propose exemption for coal and gas exports to countries in which Australian zero-carbon exports attract a premium comparable to the EU carbon price, even if it is not generated through an ETS.
We would hope that if the carbon solutions levy were to be introduced from 2030, our major trading partners would by that time have introduced green premiums that justify exemption from the levy for coal and gas exports to those countries.
The European Union would be exempt from the beginning. The Northeast Asian economies are moving towards eventual justification of exemption. China now has a country-wide emissions trading system.
The carbon price in July 2024 is about A$21 per tonne, having increased by 50% since early in the year. The price is expected to continue rising until it is playing a major role in transformation of Chinese industry.
Incidentally, China undertook to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that its emissions would peak by 2030, but its rapid expansion of renewable energy generation, electric vehicles and zero-carbon industrial technologies suggest that the peak may have come in 2023.
Japan is working on direct budgetary support for importers of zero-carbon products which could pass through into a premium for zero-carbon exports from Australia.
During a visit in April 2024, I was advised that the Japanese government is working towards issue of “green bonds” to pay for the premium. A carbon tax from 2035 would meet the cost of servicing and retiring the bonds.
Korea and Taiwan are introducing their own mechanisms for supporting premiums for zero-carbon imports.
One initial criticism of the carbon solutions levy is that it would cause leakage of Australian exports to competing suppliers of gas and coal. There would be some leakage, alongside substantial transfers from rents to the public revenues, and for metallurgical coal in particular, some increase in export prices.
The price increase would introduce an element of green premium for Australian green iron exports. The Superpower Institute (a non-profit research organisation founded by Sims and I) has commissioned the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University to quantify the extent of leakage, transfers from rent and higher export prices. The results will be available for public discussion early in 2025. The study will also calculate the effect of the levy on Australian public finances, real incomes and real consumption.
Regional considerations
Australia’s main competitor in regional coal markets is Indonesia. Its main competitors in gas markets are Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Indonesia, Brunei and the Middle East petroleum producers.
No informed person would suggest that there could be an economic problem with leakage to the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and the small Gulf states extract revenue from petroleum exports at much higher rates per dollar than Australia would after imposition of the levy.
There is a case in the Australian national interest for not seeing expansion of export sales from Papua New Guinea and East Timor as being entirely a waste.
But in their national interest and ours, I suggest that we seek to negotiate a four-way agreement on climate and energy with Indonesia, East Timor and Papua New Guinea.
We would all impose carbon solutions levy-type levies at similar rates. This would be a major source of revenue for all of us.
Participation of Indonesia removes leakage of coal exports. Indonesia already has an emissions trading scheme, although it generates a carbon price of only a few dollars per tonne.
It may choose to remove other imposts on fossil carbon exports at the time of introduction of new carbon-related measures – such as the requirement to make 35% of coal exports available at prices well below international prices for domestic power generation.
Participation of the four countries removes the leakage issue for gas. The four neighbours would cooperate in major development programs based on expansion of zero-carbon energy supply and goods production.
There is active discussion in Indonesia of archipelago-wide electricity transmission infrastructure to allow the superior renewable energy resources of the outer islands – Papua, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Kalimantan, Sumatra – to contribute to decarbonisation and growth of zero-carbon industry everywhere, including in the Java heartland.
The Indonesian grid would run close to neighbouring Australia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, East and West Malaysia and the Philippines. It would be the geopolitically practical means of linking Australia and Singapore, as envisaged in the SunCable project in the Northern Territory.
The Indonesian national grid could link to the Australian Sungrid discussed in my book The Superpower Transformation in Darwin and the Pilbara.
The alternatives to carbon pricing are weak
The alternatives to economy-wide carbon pricing are likely to turn out to be short-lived expedients that lead sooner rather than later to the return of today’s incoherence and underperformance in energy and climate policy and performance.
The state must provide reliability of power supply to the general population.
The Commonwealth government can do this without distorting competitive electricity markets by establishing an energy reserve I have proposed in my book The Superpower Transformation.
The superpower industries depend on electricity and hydrogen markets operating efficiently and embodying carbon prices. Otherwise the market design issues relevant to their development are similar to those for electricity.
Negative carbon externalities need to be corrected by taxation or alternative carbon pricing mechanisms. Positive externalities from innovation should be rewarded.
Positive innovation externalities are important in the introduction of new industries, technologies and business models for the zero-carbon economy.
Economy-wide carbon pricing at the social cost of carbon is essential to getting the balance right between state intervention and market exchange.
Once it is in place with fiscal rewards for innovation, the government can let businesses decide which new industries and technologies warrant investment.
Once carbon pricing is known to be coming into place reasonably soon, there is no further need for government underwriting of investment in power generation.
There is no need to include a climate trigger in assessment of a project of any kind: if it emits carbon, it will pay for the climate damage it does.
There is no need for government to take a view on climate grounds about the merits of nuclear power generation. It is zero-emissions generation and, like renewable energy, not subject to the carbon price. If it can compete with other forms of generation, it will find a place in private investment decisions on the energy mix.
There is no need for government investment in nuclear power generation. Private investors will have the same incentives to invest in nuclear as in other zero-carbon generation technologies.
There will be no need for the government to take a view on incentives for carbon capture and storage. If it is effective and emissions are actually reduced, carbon payments will be correspondingly reduced.
The carbon price will allow private investors to get on with the job of expanding renewable energy supply at a rapid pace and decarbonising the economy more generally.
Ross Garnaut is a Director and shareholder of Zen Energy. Together with Rod Sims, Ross is a co-founder and Director of The Superpower Institute, a not for profit think tank.
Every year, 7.6 million tonnes of food is lost or wasted in Australia. When we think about this, we might picture mouldy fruit, stale bread and overly full fridges. But in fact, almost half of this waste happens before food ever gets to us. Waste is common in food production, processing and transportation.
For example, the process of making cheese from milk results in a comparatively small amount of cheese and a lot of whey – up to 90% the mass of the raw milk.
Whey is useful, as it still has about half the nutrients of milk. But whey remains one of the largest sources of food loss and waste in Australia’s large dairy sector. Every year, about 350 million litres goes down the drain, costing businesses over A$580 million to dispose of it and wasting some of the resources it takes to make milk.
In our new research, we interviewed cheesemakers from 42 companies – representing almost a third of Australia’s cheese industry.
We found cheesemakers knew what waste whey could be used for but were put off by practical challenges.
You can already buy whey products such as fermented drinks and protein powders. Infant formula may contain the highly valuable lactoferrin, which would be usually left in whey. A popular Swiss soft drink, Rivella, is also made from whey.
In Australia, some producers have begun making alcoholic spirits by fermenting the lactose in whey. Researchers have found whey-based alcohol can emit less greenhouse gases than traditional grains.
Our research found over half of our cheesemakers were using multiple methods to reduce whey going to waste, from making animal feed to making ricotta to irrigating paddocks. Even so, there is still room to make much more use of whey.
What did we find?
Every year, 43% of all milk produced in Australia is used to make cheese – about eight billion litres a year. When we did this research, there were 132 cheesemakers, using cow, goat, sheep, and camel milk to make cheese. The industry is characterised by a few large manufacturers (about 2% of companies) and many small manufacturers (about 90% of the total). Cheesemakers are largely concentrated in Australia’s southeast.
To understand the challenge of avoiding whey waste, we spoke to cheesemakers, big and small, right across Australia between November 2022 and June 2023.
All of our cheesemaker respondents knew of at least one whey-based product.
But there were barriers to using whey themselves by a range of things, from the set-up cost of a new facility to the challenge of scale, competing priorities and the distance to potential partners. As one respondent said:
Every single part of the business would have to be changed, upgraded, or increased to accommodate using the whey in any way
Another said:
We’re all doing 60 to 70-hour weeks and you [need] someone to actually drive it
How can we overcome the barriers?
Based on our interviews, we found four possible ways to encourage cheesemakers to put their whey to use:
turning whey into value-added products in-house. This could be quite effective – one of our respondents reported making more money from whey-based products than cheese. But setting it up requires time and money.
engaging other companies to take the waste. Partnering with outside companies can help overcome time and money issues – but everyone needs to agree on a price for a product previously considered waste.
starting joint ventures, such as teaming up with other cheesemakers. This method suits cheesemakers wanting to keep the value of the whey. Successful ventures require clear leadership and transparent business plans.
scaling up. Some cheesemakers are already using their own whey. If they move to accept whey from other makers, they can scale up – as long as the new whey sources can meet their specifications.
We found giving Australian cheesemakers the full range of options greatly increased how willing they were to find ways to use whey.
When they only had in-house options, 33% of respondents said they would find ways to use way. This rose to 79% when all four options were available.
Even once the cheese has been made, the whey left behind contains proteins and other nutrients. guys_who_shoot/Shutterstock
Which whey forward?
Our research shows there’s no silver bullet to solve whey waste. We’ll have to come at it from different angles and focus on collaboration between cheesemakers, governments, industry bodies and consumers.
One crucial thing is to make sure there there is demand for these changes. In separate research, we found there is currently little expectation from consumers and retailers about what happens to whey waste. Increasing demand for whey-based products and setting expectations for cheesemaking practices could drive this change. But food safety regulations and taxes on alcohol can make it more challenging still for makers.
In regions with a cluster of cheesemakers, it might make more sense for one or two makers to take all the whey waste and turn it into value-added products to benefit from the scale. While many cheesemakers told us they felt isolated from potential partners, we found a potential partner was right around the corner – just one or two kilometres in most cases.
This is where decision support tools may be able to help in future. These software tools help you lay out your options so you can compare them and pick the best one. They can take into account financial outlay, risks and environmental impacts.
The good news is, there is an abundant, nutrient rich byproduct able to be converted into other products. The challenge now is to find ways of boosting collaboration between cheesemakers and other companies – and ensuring whey-based products have a market.
Jack Hetherington’s PhD project receives funding from the End Food Waste Cooperative Research Centre, CSIRO and the University of Adelaide. Jack is currently the Treasurer for the Landcare Association of South Australia and a member of the SA Crawford Fund committee.
Adam James Loch has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the South Australian Department for Environment and Water, and the European Commission.
Pablo Juliano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
A large communications satellite has broken up in orbit, affecting users in Europe, Central Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Australia, and adding to the growing swarm of space junk clouding our planet’s neighbourhood.
The Intelsat 33e satellite provided broadband communication from a point some 35,000km above the Indian Ocean, in a geostationary orbit around the equator.
Initial reports on October 20 said Intelsat 33e had experienced a sudden power loss. Hours later, US Space Forces-Space confirmed the satellite appears to have broken up into at least 20 pieces.
So what happened? And is this a sign of things to come as more and more satellites head into orbit?
A space whodunnit
There are no confirmed reports about what caused the breakup of Intelsat 33e. However, it is not the first event of its kind.
What we do know is that Intelsat 33e has a history of issues while in orbit. Designed and manufactured by Boeing, the satellite was launched in August 2016.
In 2017, the satellite reached its desired orbit three months later than anticipated, due to a reported issue with its primary thruster, which controls its altitude and acceleration.
More propulsion troubles emerged when the satellite performed something called a station keeping activity, which keeps it at the right altitude. It was burning more fuel than expected, which meant its mission would end around 3.5 years early, in 2027. Intelsat lodged a US$78 million insurance claim as a result of these problems.
However, at the time of its breakup, the satellite was reportedly not insured.
Intelsat is investigating what went wrong, but we may never know exactly what caused the satellite to fragment. We do know another Intelsat satellite of the same model, a Boeing-built EpicNG 702 MP, failed in 2019.
More importantly, we can learn from the aftermath of the breakup: space junk.
30 blue whales of space junk
The amount of debris in orbit around Earth is increasing rapidly. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates there are more than 40,000 pieces larger than 10cm in orbit, and more than 130,000,000 smaller than 1cm.
The total mass of human-made space objects in Earth orbit is some 13,000 tonnes. That’s about the same mass as 90 adult male blue whales. About one third of this mass is debris (4,300 tonnes), mostly in the form of leftover rocket bodies.
Tracking and identifying space debris is a challenging task. At higher altitudes, such as Intelsat 33e’s orbit around 35,000km up, we can only see objects above a certain size.
Visualisation of debris around the Earth.
One of the most concerning things about the loss of Intelsat 33e is that the breakup likely produced debris that is too small for us to see from ground level with current facilities.
The past few months have seen a string of uncontrolled breakups of decommissioned and abandoned objects in orbit.
In June, the RESURS-P1 satellite fractured in low Earth orbit (an altitude of around 470km), creating more than 100 trackable pieces of debris. This event also likely created many more pieces of debris too small to be tracked.
It is not yet known whether this most recent event will affect other objects in orbit. This is where continuous monitoring of the sky becomes vital, to understand these complex space debris environments.
Who is responsible?
When space debris is created, who is responsible for cleaning it up or monitoring it?
In practice, there is often little accountability. The first fine over space debris was issued in 2023 by the US Federal Communications Commission.
It’s not clear whether a similar fine will be issued in the case of Intelsat 33e.
Looking ahead
As the human use of space accelerates, Earth orbit is growing increasingly crowded. To manage the hazards of orbital debris, we will need continuous monitoring and improved tracking technology alongside deliberate efforts to minimise the amount of debris.
Most satellites are much closer to Earth than Intelsat 33e. Often these low Earth orbit satellites can be safely brought down from orbit (or “de-orbited”) at the end of their missions without creating space debris, especially with a bit of forward planning.
In September, ESA’s Cluster 2 “Salsa” satellite was de-orbited with a targeted re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere, burning up safely.
Of course, the bigger the space object, the more debris it can produce. NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office calculated the International Space Station would produce more than 220 million debris fragments if it broke up in orbit, for example.
Accordingly, planning for de-orbiting of the station (ISS) at the end of its operational life in 2030 is now well underway, with the contract awarded to SpaceX.
Christopher Fluke works for Swinburne University of Technology. He has previously received funding from the SmartSat CRC, including funding to support a research collaboration with CGI Australia (Space, Defence and Intelligence). He is a member of the International Astronomical Union.
Sara Webb and Tallulah Waterson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University
Most of us are fortunate that, when we turn on the tap, clean, safe and high-quality water comes out.
But a senate inquiry into the presence of PFAS or “forever chemicals” is putting the safety of our drinking water back in the spotlight.
Lidia Thorpe, the independent senator leading the inquiry, says Elders in the Aboriginal community of Wreck Bay in New South Wales are “buying bottled water out of their aged care packages” due to concerns about the health impacts of PFAS in their drinking water.
So, how is water deemed safe to drink in Australia? And why does water quality differ in some areas?
Here’s what happens between a water catchment and your tap.
Human intervention in the water cycle
There is no “new” water on Earth. The water we drink can be up to 4.5 billion years old and is continuously recycled through the hydrological cycle. This transfers water from the ground to the atmosphere through evaporation and back again (for example, through rain).
Humans interfere with this natural cycle by trapping and redirecting water from various sources to use. A lot happens before it reaches your home.
The quality of the water when you turn on the tap depends on a range of factors, including the local geology, what kind of activities happen in catchment areas, and the different treatments used to process it.
The guidelines set acceptable water quality values for more than 250 physical, chemical and bacterial contaminants. They take into account any potential health impact of drinking the contaminant over a lifetime as well as aesthetics – the taste and colour of the water.
The guidelines are not mandatory but provide the basis for determining if the quality of water to be supplied to consumers in all parts of Australia is safe to drink. The guidelines undergo rolling revision to ensure they represent the latest scientific evidence.
From water catchment to tap
Australians’ drinking water mainly comes from natural catchments. Sources include surface water, groundwater and seawater (via desalination).
adjusting pH to balance the chemistry of the water and to aid filtration.
This water is delivered to our taps via a reticulated system – a network of underground reservoirs, pipes, pumps and fittings.
In areas where there is no reticulated system, drinking water can also be sourced from rainwater tanks. This means the quality of drinking water can vary.
There are many impacts of poor regional water quality. These include its implication in elevated rates of tooth decay in First Nations people. This occurs when access to chilled, sugary drinks is cheaper and easier than access to good quality water.
What about PFAS?
There is also renewed concern about the presence of PFAS or “forever” chemicals in drinking water.
A review by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) proposed lowering the limits for four PFAS chemicals in drinking water: PFOA, PFOS, PFHxS and PFBS.
The review used publicly available data and found most drinking water supplies are currently below the proposed new guideline values for PFAS.
However, “hotspots” of PFAS remain where drinking water catchments or other sources (for example, groundwater) have been impacted by activities where PFAS has been used in industrial applications. And some communities have voiced concerns about an association between elevated PFAS levels in their communities and cancer clusters.
Importantly, assessment of exposure levels from all sources in the population shows PFAS levels are falling meaning any exposure risk has also reduced over time.
How about removing PFAS from water?
Most sources of drinking water are not associated with industrial contaminants like PFAS. So water sources are generally not subject to expensive treatment processes, like reverse osmosis, that can remove most waterborne pollutants, including PFAS. These treatments are energy-intensive and expensive and based on recent water quality assessments by the NHMRC will not be needed.
While contaminants are everywhere, it is the dose that makes the poison. Ultra-low concentrations of chemicals including PFAS, while not desirable, may not be harmful and total removal is not warranted.
Mark Patrick Taylor is a full-time employee of EPA Victoria, appointed to the statutory role of Chief Environmental Scientist. He is also an Honorary Professor at Macquarie University. EPA Victoria has previously received funding from the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action and Victorian water authorities to understand the presence of contaminants waste water. He has previously received funding from the Australian Government, ARC and other government agencies for environmental pollution research.
Antti Mikkonen is a full-time employee of EPA Victoria, in the role of Principal Health Risk Advisor for chemicals. Antti has previously received funding from the Australian Government Department of Education for research to understand PFAS bioaccumulation in livestock and models for risk management.
Minna Saaristo is a full-time employee of EPA Victoria, appointed to the role of Principal Scientist – Ecological Risk and Emerging contaminants. She is affiliate of the School of Biological Sciences at Monash University. EPA Victoria has previously received funding from the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action and Victorian water authorities to understand the presence of emerging contaminants in recycled water. She has previously received funding from the Australian Government, ARC and other government agencies for environmental pollution research.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The Labor Party has won a seventh consecutive ACT election.
The ACT uses the Hare Clark proportional representation method with five five-member electorates, for a total of 25 seats. A quota is one-sixth of the vote or 16.7%.
For Saturday’s election, the ABC is calling
ten Labor seats, eight Liberals, two Greens, one Independent for Canberra (IfC) and one other independent, with three still undecided.
Labor has won a seventh consecutive term, having governed in the ACT since 2001, often in coalition with the Greens. At the 2022 federal election, the ACT gave Labor a 67–33 two-party win, easily the most pro-Labor jurisdiction. This strong left lean makes it difficult for the Liberals to win ACT elections.
Vote shares were 34.5% Labor (down 3.3% since the 2020 election), 33.0% Liberals (down 0.9%), 12.5% Greens (down 1.0%), 8.5% Independents for Canberra (new) and 11.5% for all Others (down 3.3%). Postal votes have not yet been counted, and these should help the Liberals.
Nearly all pre-poll votes and some election day votes were cast electronically. Provisional preference distributions for these votes were published on election night, with paper ballots to be added to these electronic votes in the coming days.
Analysis of each of the five electorates follows. The final seat result will probably be ten Labor (steady since 2020), ten Liberals (up one), three Greens (down three), one IfC (new) and one other independent (up one). If this occurs, Labor and the Greens will retain their combined majority with 13 of the 25 seats.
In Brindabella, the Liberals won 2.57 quotas, Labor 2.05, the Greens 0.55 and IfC 0.45. Analyst Kevin Bonham says the Liberals are likely to win the last seat after postals are counted.
In Ginninderra, Labor has 2.26 quotas, the Liberals 1.52, the Greens 0.89 and IfC 0.45. Bonham says the Greens and Liberals easily win the final two seats on the provisional distribution.
In Kurrajong, Labor has 2.20 quotas, the Liberals 1.41, the Greens 1.07 and IfC 0.83. IfC easily wins the last seat on the provisional distribution.
In Murrumbidgee, the Liberals have 2.06 quotas, Labor 2.02, independent Fiona Carrick 0.78 and the Greens 0.57. Carrick easily wins the last seat.
In Yerrabi, the Liberals have 2.19 quotas, Labor 1.86, the Greens 0.71 and IfC 0.58. The Greens easily defeat IfC on the provisional distribution.
Harris dips in polls, but US presidential contest remains tight
The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.1–46.8, a gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led by 49.3–46.5. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2.
The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).
Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.
In Silver’s state poll aggregates, Harris leads by just 0.4 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (ten). She leads by about one point in Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Nevada (six). Trump leads by 0.8 points in North Carolina (16 electoral votes), 1.4 points in Georgia (16) and 1.8 points in Arizona (11).
If Harris holds her current leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, she likely wins the Electoral College by at least 276–262. But Harris’ margins in these states are now very narrow.
While Silver’s model is still effectively a 50–50 toss-up, Trump is now the slight favourite with a 51% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 48% last Monday. Harris’ Electoral College win probability had peaked at 58% on September 27. There’s a 26% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.
While Trump was the favourite in Silver’s model between late August and mid-September, this is his first lead in FiveThirtyEight since early August.
Silver said on Friday that current economic conditions imply Harris should win the national popular vote by about one point, so the contest is trending towards this outcome. But Trump would be likely to win the Electoral College with just a one-point Harris advantage in the popular vote.
Liberals lose Pittwater to teal at NSW state byelections
Byelections occurred Saturday in the New South Wales state Liberal-held seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater. Labor did not contest any of these byelections. In Pittwater, The Poll Bludger’s projections give teal independent Jacqui Scruby a 54.1–45.9 lead over the Liberals, a 4.8% swing to Scruby since the 2023 state election.
Current primary votes are 53.7% Scruby (up 17.3%), 42.4% Liberals (down 2.6%) and 3.9% for a Libertarian. The Greens had won 6.8% in 2023, but did not contest, presumably to stop left-wing votes exhausting under NSW’s optional preferential system.
The other two byelections were easy Liberal holds, with the Liberals beating the Greens by 61.6–38.4 in Hornsby (58.0–42.0 against Labor in 2023). The Liberals won Epping by 65.8–34.2 against the Greens (54.8–45.2 against Labor in 2023).
Federal Morgan poll and NT redistribution
A national Morgan poll, conducted October 7–13 from a sample of 1,697, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the September 30 to October 6 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (down 1.5), 14% Greens (up 1.5), 6% One Nation (up 0.5), 9% independents (steady) and 3.5% others (down 0.5).
The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 51–49, a one-point gain for the Coalition.
The Northern Territory has two federal electorates: Lingiari and Solomon. It had been seven years since the last NT redistribution, so a new redistribution was required, and this was released Friday.
ABC election analyst Antony Green said Labor’s margin in Lingiari was increased from 0.9% to 1.7%, but decreased in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4%. This is a draft redistribution, but there are not expected to be any changes before finalisation.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Lindsey, Malcolm Smith Professor of Asian Law and Director of the Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society, The University of Melbourne
Former General Prabowo Subianto will be sworn in as Indonesia’s eighth president today. Twenty-five years ago he was a pariah, and for good reason.
He faced accusations of human rights abuses in Papua and East Timor, and in 1998, special forces troops under his command had abducted democracy activists in Jakarta, 13 of whom have never been seen again. Those who did return had been tortured.
The students had been calling for the resignation of President Soeharto, Prabowo’s father-in-law, who finally stepped down in May 1998 after widespread rioting that many believe Prabowo helped engineer. Then, backed by troops under his command, Prabowo tried to storm the presidential palace, gun in hand, to threaten the new president, BJ Habibie.
Prabowo never went on trial for the disappearances of the activists, though he was banned from travelling to the United States for two decades.
And his cherished military career quickly ended – he was dismissed from the army for “misinterpreting orders”. Disgraced, and seen as embodying the violence and repression of Soeharto’s regime, Prabowo went into voluntary exile in Jordan. It seemed he had no future in the democratic Reformasi (reformation) system that began to emerge from the ruins of the repressive New Order.
But Prabowo was far from finished. His rehabilitation and extraordinary climb to the presidency may now signal the end of Indonesia’s fragile, aspirational liberal democracy and a return to the New Order model.
The end of Reformasi?
It is clear enough that Prabowo has no enthusiasm for democracy. He has said, for example, that it “very, very tiring” and “very, very messy and costly”.
Gerindra, the political party he founded and leads, even has, as its number one mission statement, a return to the Constitution “as stipulated on 18 August 1945”. This is the authoritarian original version of the Constitution that Soeharto relied on to rule. It did not guarantee human rights or a separation of powers, and it gave huge power to the president, who was not elected and had no term limit.
This Constitution was amended after Soeharto fell to bring in a liberal, democratic model. So, a return to the original 1945 Constitution would in itself likely end Indonesia’s hard-won, if troubled, democracy.
But Prabowo may not need to go this far to enjoy the sweeping power his former father-in-law exercised. Many of the elements of the New Order are already in place. Much of the work of dismantling Indonesia’s liberal democracy has already been done by the outgoing president, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), whose son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is now Prabowo’s vice president.
For example, a key pillar of the New Order was “dual function”, a doctrine that allowed serving military members to take civilian posts, allowing them to dominate the government. This was abolished after Soeharto fell.
But amendments to the civil service law passed last October again allow active members of the army and police to occupy civilian positions. Proposed amendments to the Indonesian National Army (TNI) Law now being debated could expand this. When questioned about the army’s return to civilian life, the armed forces commander welcomed the changes, saying the army would not be exercising a “dual function” but a “multi-function”.
Likewise, under Soeharto, repressive laws tightly restricted press freedom. Now, a controversial new criminal code that comes into force in 2026 will reinstate prohibitions on criticising the government that the Constitutional Court had previously struck out. A proposed new Broadcasting Law would also ban “broadcasting investigative journalism content”.
Under the New Order, civil society activism was also harshly restricted. In the last ten years under Jokowi, there has been a steady escalation of defamation actions and threats against government critics. And a law passed in 2017 allows the government to dissolve non-governmental organisations without any judicial process. Already, three NGOs have been banned.
Many activists now speak openly of their fear of being targeted and intimidated by government trolls or even the intelligence agencies. Others fear Prabowo will use his links to Muslim civil society organisations to pressure or delegitimise other groups he sees as critics.
Prabowo is also following in the footsteps of Soeharto and Jokowi by building a massive coalition in the national legislature, the DPR. More than 80% of members are already on board, with only one party holding out.
Prabowo will also expand his cabinet, allowing him to award places to supporters and co-opt others, including members of civil society. This will further weaken the opposition.
This kind of government of elite “unity” makes politics opaque. Political fights take place behind the scenes, resolved by power plays and deals before measures go to a vote. It would make the national legislature not much more than a rubber stamp, as it was under Soeharto.
This assumes Prabowo can manage Indonesia’s powerful political bosses – especially the feuding former presidents Megawati Soekarnoputri and Jokowi. Together, they now control the two biggest parties in the legislature (PDI-P and Golkar, respectively).
The still hugely popular Jokowi backed his former bitter enemy Prabowo in the February elections because he saw this as a way to maintain influence after he left office. But Prabowo will be reluctant to share real power with anyone for long. His relationship with Jokowi is likely to be one the biggest challenges to his rule.
Dealing with an obstructive court
One of the few remaining obstacles to Prabowo acquiring the sort of dictatorial powers Soeharto exercised is the Constitutional Court, which has the power to strike out laws. Prabowo will not want a non-compliant and obstructive (that is, independent) Constitutional Court. Already politicians are openly discussing the need to “assess its performance”.
If the legislature passes laws to weaken the court, the court could just strike them out, as it has done in the past.
But the court was established by the amendments to the original 1945 Constitution. This means that if government cannot pass laws to weaken the court, stack the court or intimidate independent judges, a return to the 1945 Constitution could be used to eliminate it.
Prabowo would need to feel his rule is secure and that he has the rock-solid support of the elites before doing this, but it is certainly possible. Returning to the original Constitution would simply require a two-thirds vote in the MPR, Indonesia’s highest representative assembly.
Bold promises on the economy
Soeharto’s system was based on a Faustian bargain that allowed him to rule corruptly and oppressively in return for high economic growth and development that lifted millions out of poverty.
Prabowo is likely to adopt the same approach. He campaigned on an annual GDP growth target of 8%, a rate reached under Soeharto, but never by subsequent governments. Jokowi also placed great emphasis on development (infrastructure in particular), but never got much above 5% growth per year.
Many are optimistic about the economy under the new president. Prabowo’s father was a prominent economist and a finance minister. Prabowo has also asked Jokowi’s highly-regarded finance minister, Sri Mulyani, to stay in her role.
However, Prabowo comes to office with some enormously expensive commitments that would make Sri Mulyani’s job extremely difficult. These include his free school lunches program (upwards of US$30 billion, or A$45 billion), which Sri Mulyani has publicly questioned, and Jokowi’s signature new capital city, Nusantara, currently under construction. (The initial phase alone will cost at least US$35 billion, or A$52 billion).
Moreover, Prabowo’s main priority will be to keep the elites happy and maintain his enormous coalition. His supporters and allies – including his brother, tycoon Hashim Djojohadikusumo who has funded his political career – will all demand access to concessions and lucrative appointments for their cronies to make good the vast amounts spent on the February elections. Rational economic policy-making will therefore be highly constrained.
Foreign investment has always been the key to high growth in Indonesia, but despite the constant rhetoric about Indonesia being open for business, it will undoubtedly remain protectionist in practice under Prabowo. That will likely make the 8% GDP annual growth target impossible.
More active foreign relations
Prabowo, who was educated overseas and speaks English fluently, feels comfortable on the global stage. He will want a more prominent place in world affairs for his country, reflecting its vast size and new status as a middle-income country.
As Jokowi’s defence minister, he was active internationally, even attempting to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. And, to his obvious delight, countries like the US that had previously denied him entry have congratulated him on his victory.
Prabowo’s main foreign affairs challenge will be the same as his predecessor’s: managing the difficult relationship with China.
Indonesians are deeply suspicious of China, an attitude driven by a potent mixture of deeply rooted racist attitudes, fear of communism and anxiety about China’s hegemonic ambitions. However, Indonesia is a major recipient of Belt and Road investments and the elite rely heavily on Chinese trade and investment.
Like Jokowi, Prabowo will have to manage this difficult balance.
Back to the future
Indonesian civil society leaders are already talking about the new administration as “New Order Volume II” or “neo-New Order”, and it is easy to see why. All the signs point to a continuation under Prabowo of the process begun under Jokowi: a slide towards something that looks much more like Soeharto’s system than the liberal democracy reformers tried to construct 25 years ago.
There is nothing in Prabowo’s past or his campaign promises to suggest otherwise. Perhaps the only question is how quickly it happens and how far he will go.
Tim Lindsey receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Yongqi Gu, Associate Professor, School of Linguistics and Applied Language Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
Getty Images
There is a belief widely held across the Western world: Chinese students are schooled through rote, passive learning – and an educational system like this can only produce docile workers who lack innovation or creativity.
We argue this is far from true. In fact, the Chinese education system is producing highly successful students and an extremely skilled and creative workforce. We think the world can learn something from this.
In the US, you could have a meeting of tooling engineers, and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China you could fill multiple football fields.
To which Tesla CEO Elon Musk quickly responded on X: “True”.
When South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visited the Shenzhen headquarters of electric vehicle manufacturer BYD earlier this year, he was surprised to learn the company was planning to double its 100,000-strong engineering taskforce within the coming decade.
He might not have been so surprised had he known Chinese universities are producing more than ten million graduates every year – the foundation for a super-economy.
The ‘paradox of the Chinese learner’
Chinese learners achieve remarkable success levels compared to their Western – or non-Confucian-heritage – counterparts.
Since Shanghai first participated in the PISA educational evaluation in 2009, 15‑year-olds in China have topped the league table three out of four times in reading, mathematics and science.
How can a supposedly passive and rote Chinese system outperform its Western counterparts? A number of Australian scholars have been studying this “paradox of the Chinese learner” since the 1990s.
Their research shows those common perceptions of Chinese and other Asian learners are wrong. For example, repetition and meaningful learning are not mutually exclusive. As one Chinese saying goes:
书读百遍其意自现 – meaning reveals itself when you read something many times.
What can Western education learn?
An emphasis on education is a defining feature of Chinese culture. Since Confucianism became the state-sanctioned doctrine in the Han Dynasty (202BCE–220CE), education has entered every fabric of Chinese society.
This became especially true after the institutionalisation of the Keju system of civil service examinations during the Sui Dynasty (581CE–618CE).
Today, the Gaokao university entrance examination is the modern Keju equivalent. Millions of school leavers take the exam each year. For three days every July, Chinese society largely comes to a standstill for the Gaokao.
While the cultural drive for educational excellence is a major motivation for everyone involved in the system, it is not something that is easily learned and replicated in Western societies.
However, there are two principles we believe are central to Chinese educational success, at both the learner and system levels. We use two Chinese idioms to illustrate these.
The first we call “orderly and gradual progress” – 循序渐进. This principle stresses patient, step-by-step and sequenced learning, sustained by grit and delayed gratification.
The second we call “thick accumulation before thin production” – 厚积薄发. This principle stresses the importance of two things:
a comprehensive foundation through accumulation of basic knowledge and skills
assimilation, integration and productive creativity only come after this firm foundation.
Technique to art: weekly calligraphy lessons have been mandatory in Chinese primary and middle schools since 2013. Getty Images
Knowledge, skill and creativity
The epitome of orderly and gradual progress is the way calligraphy is learned. It goes from easy to difficult, simple to complex, imitating to free writing, technique to art. Since 2013, it has been a mandatory weekly lesson in all primary and middle schools in China.
The art of Chinese writing embodies patience, diligence, breathing, concentration and an appreciation of the natural beauty of rhythm. It teaches Chinese values of harmony and the aesthetic spirit.
“Thick accumulation” can be illustrated in the way students study extremely hard for the national Gaokao examination, and also during tertiary education. This way they accumulate the basic knowledge and skills required in a modern society.
“Thin production” refers to the ability to narrow or focus this accumulated knowledge and skill to find and implement creative solutions in the workplace or elsewhere.
Ways of learning
On the face of it, the emphasis on gradual and steady progress, and on accumulation of basic knowledge and skills, may look like a slow, monotonous and uninspiring process – the origin of those common myths about Chinese learning.
In reality, it boils down to a simple argument: without a critical mass of basic knowledge and skills, there is little to assimilate and integrate for productive creativity.
Of course, there are problems with Chinese learning and education, not least the fierce competitiveness and overemphasis on examinations. But our focus here is simply to show how two basic educational principles underpin Chinese advances in science and technology in a modern knowledge economy.
We believe these principles are transferable and potentially beneficial for policymakers, scholars and learners elsewhere.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
New Zealand’s tech sector is set to get a boost thanks to the launch of the country’s first dedicated banking hub for early-stage technology businesses.
The Waikato-based BNZ Tech Business Hub is designed to address the unique needs of early-stage tech companies.
It offers BNZ customers access to bankers with specific training and expertise who are equipped to offer financial services to address the unique challenges and opportunities faced in the technology industries.
Tim Wixon, Head of Technology Industries at BNZ, says, “BNZ’s Tech Business Hub is not just a new offering – it represents a philosophical shift in how we approach banking for this sector. Technology businesses have distinct needs which have not historically been met by traditional banking models. Our hub will help fill this gap by offering practical guidance, advice, and tailored services to help accelerate sector growth.”
According to the Technology Investment Network, the top 200 New Zealand tech companies generated the second largest source of offshore revenue after dairy. The industry is also growing faster than any other in New Zealand and offers salaries around 30% higher than the New Zealand average.
“Technology Industries continue to be an increasingly important part of the New Zealand economy. Every year, we see more of our country’s tech companies succeed on the world stage and BNZ remains committed to assist wherever possible”, says Mr Wixon.
BNZ is ambitious in its support for technology companies in New Zealand, launching a range of innovative solutions in recent years to assist the sector, including Contracted Receivables Financing, Revenue Based Financing for SaaS businesses, and Project Scale Up, which provide high-potential and high-growth technology businesses with access to non-dilutive capital.
The new Tech Business Hub complements these offerings, underscoring BNZ’s commitment to fostering a vibrant homegrown tech ecosystem.
Tech Business Hub Team Manager – Figo Liu – says, “Tech businesses require banking partners who speak their language and understand their journey. Our goal is to nurture the tech and startup ecosystem by making it easier to start a business and grow.”
With the Tech Business Hub now up and running, BNZ is turning its attention to further ways that it can support tech businesses at all stages of their lifecycle.
“We believe that New Zealand’s tech sector has enormous potential, and we want to do everything we can to help these businesses succeed,” says Mr Wixon. “The BNZ Tech Business Hub is the next step in our commitment to this important part of our economy, and we look forward to working closely with tech entrepreneurs and innovators to help them achieve their goals.”
Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s recent decision to approve expansion plans for three New South Wales coal mines disappointed many people concerned with stabilising the global climate.
Two of these mines, Narrabri and Mount Pleasant in New South Wales, featured in the high-profile but ultimately unsuccessful Living Wonders court case, intended to force the federal government to take account of climate damage done by coal mine approvals. A lawyer involved in the case said Plibersek’s decision showed a refusal to “recognise their climate harms”.
The emissions from these projects will be considered by the minister for climate change and energy under the government’s strong climate laws.
But these laws apply only to emissions produced in Australia, which in this case will be from extracting and transporting coal and the relatively small amount of coal burned here. Most of the coal will be exported and burned overseas. Australian laws do not count those much larger emissions.
The government is effectively washing its hands of the far larger emissions created when the coal is burned overseas. Since taking office, the Albanese government has approved seven applications to open or expand coal mines. Just this week, NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said his state would keep exporting coal into the 2040s.
This reasoning doesn’t stack up. If we stopped expanding coal mines, coal would get more expensive – and we would accelerate the global shift to clean energy.
How can more coal be compatible with net zero?
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate action, nations must publicly commit to domestic emissions reductions goals and are expected to steadily ramp up ambition.
But these emissions cuts are domestic only – we don’t measure the emissions we enable by exporting coal and gas.
The Albanese government has increased domestic ambition by committing to a 43% reduction on 2005 figures by 2030. This seems to be a substantial advance on the 26-28% commitment made by the previous government. In reality, internal tensions in the Morrison Coalition government handed Labor an unintentional gift.
In 2021, estimates suggested Australia was already on track for a 35% reduction. But internal opposition among Coalition backbenchers stopped Morrison announcing this as a target. As a result, Labor’s change looks about twice as impressive as it should.
Still, progress is happening. Domestically, Australia is now burning less and less coal.
But in terms of exports, the government’s position – clear in Plibersek’s decision as well as the government’s plan to keep gas flowing for decades – is as long as there is a demand for coal and gas from other countries, Australia will be ready and willing to meet it.
Most of the coal unlocked by Plibersek’s decision will go overseas, given NSW exports 85% of its coal to partners such as Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan.
How does the government defend this?
Expanding coal mines while maintaining a public commitment to net zero is a consistent theme between this government and its predecessor, which also committed to net zero. It meets a minimal interpretation of our legal obligations under the Paris Agreement, but maintains the planet’s path towards dangerous warming.
In her statement of reasons given in 2023 as to why the Mount Pleasant mine expansion should be permitted, Plibersek and the Labor government offer several defences.
The first is she is simply acting in accordance with Australian law, as the project would comply with “applicable Commonwealth emissions reduction legislation”. This is a weak reed, to put it mildly. The Albanese government, with the support of Greens and independents, can change the law whenever it chooses.
In reality, the government has steadfastly resisted pressure to include a “climate trigger” in Australia’s environmental approval processes. Their resistance is relatively new – as recently as 2016, Labor policy included a climate trigger for land clearing.
Labor’s second defence has often been dubbed the “drug dealer’s defence”. That is, if Australia didn’t export coal, other producers would take our place. As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has put it:
policies that would just result in a replacement of Australian resources with resources that are less clean from other countries would lead to an increase in global emissions, not a decrease.
As I’ve argued previously, this defence doesn’t work. Coal is subject to a rising cost curve – if we stopped exporting it, new or expanded production from other sources would cost more to extract and hence be priced higher. More expensive coal would, in turn, accelerate the global energy transition. We do have agency – we could choose not to unlock more coal.
Finally, Plibersek claims emissions from burning Mount Pleasant coal – estimated at over 500 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over the mine’s extended lifetime – would not be “substantial” relative to total global emissions. For context, Australia’s total emissions are now less than 500 million tonnes a year.
This “litterbug’s defence” suggest Australia’s emissions – whether produced domestically or exported – are not big enough to make a difference. This is not true – we are now the second largest exporter of emissions globally, after Russia. That is due largely to coal.
Are fossil fuel exports untouchable?
There’s a huge gap between global pledges to cut emissions and the reductions needed to actually achieve the Paris targets. Most countries we export coal and gas to are not yet on a path to achieve the reductions in emissions necessary to stabilise the global climate – though China’s emissions may, remarkably, be about to decline.
That’s why we need to press for decarbonisation at every stage of the energy system, from extraction of coal, oil and gas to the financing of new carbon-based projects as well as at the point where the fuel is burned and emissions produced generated.
The problem for Australia is we sell a lot of coal and gas – more than ever before. So even as solar and wind energy begins to displace coal and gas in domestic power generation, our coal and gas exports seem all but untouchable.
We should be saddened but not surprised at this pattern. The Albanese government seems guided by the principle of doing nothing to generate substantial opposition – and to count on the fact a Dutton Coalition government would do even less.
John Quiggin is a former member of the Climate Change Authority
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jongkil Jay Jeong, Senior Research Fellow in the School of Computing and Information System, The University of Melbourne
Despite huge advances in cyber security, one weakness continues to overshadow all others: human error.
Research has consistently shown human error is responsible for an overwhelming majority of successful cyber attacks. A recent report puts the figure at 68%.
No matter how advanced our technological defences become, the human element is likely to remain the weakest link in the cyber security chain. This weakness affects everyone using digital devices, yet traditional cyber education and awareness programs – and even new, forward-looking laws – fail to adequately address it.
So, how can we deal with human-centric cyber security related challenges?
Understanding human error
There are two types of human error in the context of cyber security.
The first is skills-based errors. These occur when people are doing routine things – especially when their attention is diverted.
For example, you might forget to back up desktop data from your computer. You know you should do it and know how to do it (because you have done it before). But because you need to get home early, forgot when you did it last or had lots of emails to respond to, you don’t. This may make you more exposed to a hacker’s demands in the event of a cyber attack, as there are no alternatives to retrieve the original data.
The second type is knowledge-based errors. These occur when someone with less experience makes cyber security mistakes because they lack important knowledge or don’t follow specific rules.
For example, you might click on a link in an email from an unknown contact, even if you don’t know what will happen. This could lead to you being hacked and losing your money and data, as the link might contain dangerous malware.
Many cyber attacks are successful because people click on unknown links in emails and text messages. ParinPix/Shutterstock
Traditional approaches fall short
Organisations and governments have invested heavily in cyber security education programs to address human error. However, these programs have had mixed results at best.
This is partly because many programs take a technology-centric, one-size-fits-all approach. They often focus on specific technical aspects, such as improving password hygiene or implementing multi-factor authentication. Yet, they don’t address the underlying psychological and behavioural issues that influence people’s actions.
The reality is that changing human behaviour is far more complex than simply providing information or mandating certain practices. This is especially true in the context of cyber security.
Public health campaigns such as the “Slip, Slop, Slap” sun safety initiative in Australia and New Zealand illustrate what works.
Since this campaign started four decades ago, melanoma cases in both countries have fallen significantly. Behavioural change requires ongoing investment into promoting awareness.
The same principle applies to cyber security education. Just because people know best practices doesn’t mean they will consistently apply them – especially when faced with competing priorities or time pressures.
New laws fall short
The Australian government’s proposed cyber security law focuses on several key areas, including:
combating ransomware attacks
enhancing information sharing between businesses and government agencies
strengthening data protection in critical infrastructure sectors, such as energy, transport and communications
expanding investigative powers for cyber incidents
These measures are crucial. However, like traditional cyber security education programs, they primarily address technical and procedural aspects of cyber security.
A greater emphasis is needed on human-centered approaches to cybersecurity where people’s needs, motivations, behaviours, and abilities are at the forefront of determining the design, operation, and security of information technology systems.
3 rules for human-centric cyber security
So, how can we adequately address the issue of human error in cyber security? Here are three key strategies based on the latest research.
Minimise cognitive load. Cyber security practices should be designed to be as intuitive and effortless as possible. Training programs should focus on simplifying complex concepts and integrating security practices seamlessly into daily workflows.
Foster a positive cyber security attitude. Instead of relying on fear tactics, education should emphasise the positive outcomes of good cyber security practices. This approach can help motivate people to improve their cyber security behaviours.
Adopt a long-term perspective. Changing attitudes and behaviours is not a single event but a continuous process. Cyber security education should be ongoing, with regular updates to address evolving threats.
Ultimately, creating a truly secure digital environment requires a holistic approach. It needs to combine robust technology, sound policies, and, most importantly, ensuring people are well-educated and security conscious.
If we can better understand what’s behind human error, we can design more effective training programs and security practices that work with, rather than against, human nature.
Jongkil Jay Jeong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
In September 2023, an Australian Senate committee released a landmark report on concussions and repeated head trauma in contact sports.
The committee made 13 recommendations to improve outcomes for past, present and future players.
The report emphasised shared responsibility and transparency in developing a national approach, with the government to lead nine of the recommendations.
As of October 2024, no official government update has been provided.
We’ve assessed the status of the recommendations – of the publicly available sources, we found evidence of action in some areas but no national strategy in directly addressing the focus of several key recommendations.
We approached the Senate committee secretary and the Department of Health and Aged Care for more information but neither was able to comment.
We acknowledge there is likely more work going on behind the scenes, and these processes take time.
Here’s what we found.
Progress being made
In the past year, there has been progress made with several recommendations including those addressing community awareness, education and guidelines for amateur and youth sports.
The AIS continues to engage in health-led efforts with a suite of resources aimed at increasing community awareness and education.
In June this year, the institute published a new set of return-to-play guidelines specifically targeting community and youth athletes.
This represents a tangible response from a federally funded sporting body.
However, these guidelines must be easily implemented by clubs. To date, there is no indication the government plans to increase funding or resources to clubs to help do so.
The committee also called for national sporting organisations to “further explore rule modifications to prevent and reduce the impact of concussions and repeated head trauma, prioritising modifications for children and adolescents”.
Several major sporting codes have modified their rules and we expect them to remain focused on rule modifications to ensure the longevity of their sports.
General practitioners (GPs) are often the first port of call after a concussion, and the committee recommended the development of standardised guidelines for GPs and first aid responders.
This addresses concerns that GPs may require additional training in treating sport-related brain trauma.
There appears to be work in progress or a lack of progress elsewhere, including key recommendations for a National Sports Injury Database (NSID) and professional sport data sharing.
The inquiry highlighted how patchy data collection had contributed to evidence gaps in understanding sports injury management and surveillance. The committee’s most urgent recommendation therefore was for the government to establish the NSID.
This would work closely with another recommendation that called for professional sport codes to collect and share de-identified concussion and sub-concussive event data with the NSID.
As of October 2024, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare reports the NSID is still under development and is not yet ready to receive data.
Other recommendations related to research – establishing an independent research pathway, ongoing funding commitments and a co-ordinated and consolidated funding framework.
These recommendations called for the government’s existing agencies, or a newly created body, to coordinate research on the effects of concussion and repeated head trauma.
No new dedicated sports-related concussion research pathways have emerged since the inquiry.
In terms of funding commitments, in April this year – after former rugby league star Wally Lewis’s National Press Club appearance – Dementia Australia reported the government had pledged $A18 million for concussion and CTE support services and education.
The May 2024 federal budget allocated $132.7 million to boost sports participation from grassroots to high performance. But this did not address concussion and repeated head trauma, and we haven’t been able to find evidence of a co-ordinated and consolidated funding framework.
Our view is concussion funding pools should be primarily focused on supporting independent research projects. However, sporting bodies clearly need to be involved – they provide access to athlete populations and most people in these organisations have a genuine care for athlete welfare.
Another recommendation called for a national concussion strategy. This should focus on binding return-to-play protocols and rules to protect participants from head injuries.
The recommendation included a role for government and whether any existing government bodies would be best placed to monitor, oversee and/or enforce concussion-related rules and protocols.
In our view, this recommendation involves much more than producing guidelines. It requires a more comprehensive national strategy, with consideration to monitoring compliance and enforcement.
We could not find any evidence indicating the current status of this recommendation.
Increased funding and support for affected athletes were also focus areas.
These recommendations called for a review to address barriers to workers’ compensation and ensure adequate insurance arrangements remain in place.
We could not find any evidence of whether state and territory governments are involved in the reviews of workers compensation to apply to professional athletes.
The committee recommenced the government consider measures to increase donations to brain banks for scientific research.
We couldn’t find any evidence of steps taken to implement this recommendation.
Moving forward
There has been progress in education and guidelines but a lack of the coordinated, transparent approach the committee envisioned.
A formal government response, as demonstrated in Canada and the United Kingdom, is essential to establish trust and chart a clear path forward.
The Australian government, as guardian of the Australian public’s health, has an opportunity to do the same.
Annette Greenhow receives funding from SSHRC Partnership Development Grant. Annette is a Board Member of the Australian and New Zealand Sports Law Association. The views expressed in this article are her own.
Stephen Townsend does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The nature of humanity, its essence, is to feel another’s pain as one’s own, and to act to take that pain away.
For most of our history, we believed empathy was a uniquely human trait – a special ability that set us apart from machines and other animals. But this belief is now being challenged.
As AI becomes a bigger part of our lives, entering even our most intimate spheres, we’re faced with a philosophical conundrum: could attributing human qualities to AI diminish our own human essence? Our research suggests it can.
Digitising companionship
In recent years, AI “companion” apps such as Replika have attracted millions of users. Replika allows users to create custom digital partners to engage in intimate conversations. Members who pay for Replika Pro can even turn their AI into a “romantic partner”.
Physical AI companions aren’t far behind. Companies such as JoyLoveDolls are selling interactive sex robots with customisable features including breast size, ethnicity, movement and AI responses such as moaning and flirting.
While this is currently a niche market, history suggests today’s digital trends will become tomorrow’s global norms. With about one in four adults experiencing loneliness, the demand for AI companions will grow.
The dangers of humanising AI
Humans have long attributed human traits to non-human entities – a tendency known as anthropomorphism. It’s no surprise we’re doing this with AI tools such as ChatGPT, which appear to “think” and “feel”. But why is humanising AI a problem?
For one thing, it allows AI companies to exploit our tendency to form attachments with human-like entities. Replika is marketed as “the AI companion who cares”. However, to avoid legal issues, the company elsewhere points out Replika isn’t sentient and merely learns through millions of user interactions.
Some AI companies overtly claim their AI assistants have empathy and can even anticipate human needs. Such claims are misleading and can take advantage of people seeking companionship. Users may become deeply emotionally invested if they believe their AI companion truly understands them.
This raises serious ethical concerns. A user will hesitate to delete (that is, to “abandon” or “kill”) their AI companion once they’ve ascribed some kind of sentience to it.
But what happens when said companion unexpectedly disappears, such as if the user can no longer afford it, or if the company that runs it shuts down? While the companion may not be real, the feelings attached to it are.
Empathy – more than a programmable output
By reducing empathy to a programmable output, do we risk diminishing its true essence? To answer this, let’s first think about what empathy really is.
Empathy involves responding to other people with understanding and concern. It’s when you share your friend’s sorrow as they tell you about their heartache, or when you feel joy radiating from someone you care about. It’s a profound experience – rich and beyond simple forms of measurement.
A fundamental difference between humans and AI is that humans genuinely feel emotions, while AI can only simulate them. This touches on the hard problem of consciousness, which questions how subjective human experiences arise from physical processes in the brain.
Science has yet to solve the hard problem of consciousness. Shutterstock
While AI can simulate understanding, any “empathy” it purports to have is a result of programming that mimics empathetic language patterns. Unfortunately, AI providers have a financial incentive to trick users into growing attached to their seemingly empathetic products.
The dehumanAIsation hypothesis
Our “dehumanAIsation hypothesis” highlights the ethical concerns that come with trying to reduce humans to some basic functions that can be replicated by a machine. The more we humanise AI, the more we risk dehumanising ourselves.
For instance, depending on AI for emotional labour could make us less tolerant of the imperfections of real relationships. This could weaken our social bonds and even lead to emotional deskilling. Future generations may become less empathetic – losing their grasp on essential human qualities as emotional skills continue to be commodified and automated.
Also, as AI companions become more common, people may use them to replace real human relationships. This would likely increase loneliness and alienation – the very issues these systems claim to help with.
AI companies’ collection and analysis of emotional data also poses significant risks, as these data could be used to manipulate users and maximise profit. This would further erode our privacy and autonomy, taking surveillance capitalism to the next level.
Holding providers accountable
Regulators need to do more to hold AI providers accountable. AI companies should be honest about what their AI can and can’t do, especially when they risk exploiting users’ emotional vulnerabilities.
Exaggerated claims of “genuine empathy” should be made illegal. Companies making such claims should be fined – and repeat offenders shut down.
Data privacy policies should also be clear, fair and without hidden terms that allow companies to exploit user-generated content.
We must preserve the unique qualities that define the human experience. While AI can enhance certain aspects of life, it can’t – and shouldn’t – replace genuine human connection.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to a new record low of 1.5 babies per woman. That’s well below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 needed to sustain a country’s population.
On face value, it might not seem like a big deal. But we can’t afford to ignore this issue. The health of an economy is deeply intertwined with the size and structure of its population.
Australians simply aren’t having as many babies as they used to, raising some serious questions about how we can maintain our country’s workforce, sustain economic growth and fund important services.
So what’s going on with fertility rates here and around the world, and what might it mean for the future of our economy? What can we do about it?
Are lower birth rates always a problem?
Falling fertility rates can actually have some short-term benefits. Having fewer dependent young people in an economy can increase workforce participation, as well as boost savings and wealth.
Smaller populations can also benefit from increased investment per person in education and health.
But the picture gets more complex in the long term, and less rosy. An ageing population can strain pensions, health care and social services. This can hinder economic growth, unless it’s offset by increased productivity.
Other scholars have warned that a falling population could stifle innovation, with fewer young people meaning fewer breakthrough ideas.
In the short term, lower birth rates can mean more is able to be spent per-person on services like education. Jandrie Lombard/Shutterstock
A global phenomenon
The trend towards women having fewer children is not unique to Australia. The global fertility rate has dropped over the past couple of decades, from 2.7 babies per woman in 2000 to 2.4 in 2023.
However, the distribution is not evenly spread. In 2021, 29% of the world’s babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa. This is projected to rise to 54% by 2100.
There’s also a regional-urban divide. Childbearing is often delayed in urban areas and late fertility is more common in cities.
In Australia, we see higher fertility rates in inner and outer regional areas than in metro areas. This could be because of more affordable housing and a better work-life balance.
But it raises questions about whether people are moving out of cities to start families, or if something intrinsic about living in the regions promotes higher birth rates.
Fewer workers, more pressure on services
Changes to the makeup of a population can be just as important as changes to its size. With fewer babies being born and increased life expectancy, the proportion of older Australians who have left the workforce will keep rising.
One way of tracking this is with a metric called the old-age dependency ratio – the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age individuals.
In Australia, this ratio is currently about 27%. But according to the latest Intergenerational Report, it’s expected to rise to 38% by 2063.
An ageing population means greater demand for medical services and aged care. As the working-age population shrinks, the tax base that funds these services will also decline.
An ageing population can mean more pressure on tax-payer funded services like healthcare. Chinnapong/Shutterstock
Unless this is offset by technological advances or policy innovations, it can mean higher taxes, longer working lives, or the government providing fewer public services in general.
What about housing?
It’s tempting to think a falling birth rate might be good news for Australia’s stubborn housing crisis.
The issues are linked – rising real estate prices have made it difficult for many young people to afford homes, with a significant number of people in their 20s still living with their parents.
This can mean delaying starting a family and reducing the number of children they have.
At the same time, if fertility rates stay low, demand for large family homes may decrease, impacting one of Australia’s most significant economic sectors and sources of household wealth.
Governments worldwide, including Australia, have long experimented with policies that encourage families to have more children. Examples include paid parental leave, childcare subsidies and financial incentives, such as Australia’s “baby bonus”.
Many of these efforts have had only limited success. One reason is the rising average age at which women have their first child. In many developed countries, including Australia, the average age for first-time mothers has surpassed 30.
As women delay childbirth, they become less likely to have multiple children, further contributing to declining birth rates. Encouraging women to start a family earlier could be one policy lever, but it must be balanced with women’s growing workforce participation and career goals.
Research has previously highlighted the factors influencing fertility decisions, including levels of paternal involvement and workplace flexibility. Countries that offer part-time work or maternity leave without career penalties have seen a stabilisation or slight increases in fertility rates.
Any solutions to falling fertility rates must balance other important factors such as women’s increased workforce participation. Halfpoint/Shutterstock
The way forward
Historically, one of the ways Australia has countered its low birth rate is through immigration. Bringing in a lot of people – especially skilled people of working age – can help offset the effects of a low fertility rate.
However, relying on immigration alone is not a long-term solution. The global fertility slump means that the pool of young, educated workers from other countries is shrinking, too. This makes it harder for Australia to attract the talent it needs to sustain economic growth.
Australia’s record-low fertility rate presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the shrinking number of young people will place a strain on public services, innovation and the labour market.
On the other hand, advances in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics, may help ease the challenges of an ageing population.
That’s the optimistic scenario. AI and other tech-driven productivity gains could reduce the need for large workforces. And robotics could assist in aged care, lessening the impact of this demographic shift.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
