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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Do something about it before it gets worse’: young people want government action on gambling reform

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Pitt, Senior Research Fellow – Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University

    David P. Smith/Shutterstock

    Do something about it before it gets worse.

    This was a response from a 16-year-old boy in one of our recent studies when asked what he would say to the prime minister about gambling in Australia.

    This response is not uncommon.



    Read more:
    Gambling in Australia: how bad is the problem, who gets harmed most and where may we be heading?

    Calls for action

    Even before they can legally gamble at the age of 18, young people recognise the harms that the gambling industry (and those who profit from gambling, such as sporting codes) can cause to Australians.

    And they are frustrated by a lack of government action to protect them from these harms.

    They tell us that rather than prioritising the wellbeing of the community, the government is prioritising the profits of a harmful business.

    Politicians are also hearing concerns about gambling from the young people they represent in their communities.

    Urging parliamentary action on gambling advertising, former Australian rugby captain and Independent ACT Senator David Pocock told parliament:

    Talk to parents and young people. They’ll name all the gambling companies. They’ll be able to recite odds. They’ll talk about the odds for the upcoming games of their favourite teams. What I’m hearing from people here in the ACT that I represent is that this is not the direction they want to go in.

    Gambling has become a costly pastime for many young Australians.

    Starting young

    For more than a decade, our team has been talking to young people and their parents about the normalisation of gambling in Australia. We have carried out multiple studies that show how pervasive marketing tactics are normalising gambling for young Australians.

    Young people tell us they see innovative marketing strategies for different gambling products (including betting, lotteries and casinos) everywhere, including during family-friendly television shows, through watching and attending sport and even while walking down the street.

    They increasingly see promotions on social media sites such as TikTok and Snapchat.

    They can name multiple gambling brands from a young age, and think gambling gives you a reason to watch sport.

    When asked why, they say gambling adds to the fun and excitement of the game. Some tell us they would be convinced to gamble if they got a good “deal” from a company.

    Newer forms of app-based gambling also make it is easier for young people to gamble anywhere, anytime when they turn 18.

    As an example, a young person couldn’t sit in a classroom and drink alcohol when they reach the legal age, but it is not unusual for young people to tell us that classmates use apps to bet on major events while at school.

    Some researchers have also documented the extent to which young people gamble before the age of 18.

    One study found 31% of 12- to 17-year-olds had ever gambled and 6% had gambled in the past month. They found 8% were at some level of risk of gambling harm.

    It’s no wonder parents are worried.

    Their concern about the risks of gambling are similar to their concerns about alcohol: 70% are at least somewhat concerned about the risks associated with gambling for their children, and 27.7% are extremely concerned.

    They comment that gambling products are “highly accessible”, “attractive” and “in your face”.

    When parents try to talk to their children about gambling, they say it is almost impossible to “get the message across” given the constant exposure to ads that their children see in their everyday lives. As one father told us:

    It’s advertised to children every day of the week when they watch their favourite sport stars, so they think it’s normal.

    It’s time to act

    Government decisions about how to respond to the gambling industry will have a major impact on young people’s futures. But young people have rarely (if ever) been given an opportunity by the government to put forward their views.

    Research shows when they are given the opportunity to comment on gambling policy (and gambling industry tactics), they carefully consider the issues. They are also able to use their own experiences to suggest strategies that would help protect them and other young people from gambling industry harm.

    The United Nations states children have the right to be consulted about issues that matter to them and impact their futures. This includes strengthening engagement with children and young people, recognising their “agency, resilience and their positive contributions as agents of change”.

    Young people have been central actors in the climate justice movement, and have been key stakeholders in initiatives to respond to the tactics of the junk food and tobacco industries.

    While we talk a lot about the impact of the gambling industry on young people, governments rarely consult them about the policies that are needed to protect them from harm.

    Yet their message to the government in our research is clear. They:

    • are concerned about the influence of gambling marketing on the normalisation of gambling for young people, and its short and long-term impacts

    • believe current restrictions aimed at protecting young people are ineffective

    • are critical of the overwhelmingly positive messages about gambling they are exposed to, with very limited information about the risks and harms associated with the industry and its products.

    The following comment from a 15-year-old sums it up best:

    The wellbeing of the population is more important than the revenue that comes in from these sorts of businesses.

    Dr Hannah Pitt has received funding from the Australian Research Council, Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, VicHealth, NSW Office of Responsible Gambling, Department of Social Services, ACT Office of Gambling and Racing Commission, and Deakin University. She is currently a member of the Editorial Board of Health Promotion International.

    Grace Arnot has received funding for gambling related research from the ACT Office of Gambling and Racing Commission, VicHealth, and Deakin University. Grace is currently a member of the Editorial Board of the journal Health Promotion International.

    Professor Samantha Thomas has received funding for gambling and related research from the Australian Research Council, ACT Office of Gaming and Racing, Department of Social Services, VicHealth, Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, Healthway, NSW Office of Responsible Gambling, Deakin University. She is currently Editor in Chief for Health Promotion International, an Oxford University Press journal. She receives an honorarium for this role.

    Dr Simone McCarthy has received funding for gambling and related research from ACT Office of Gaming and Racing Commision, the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, VicHealth, Department of Social Services, and Deakin University. She is currently a member of the Editorial Board of Health Promotion International.

    – ref. ‘Do something about it before it gets worse’: young people want government action on gambling reform – https://theconversation.com/do-something-about-it-before-it-gets-worse-young-people-want-government-action-on-gambling-reform-251614

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Echidna ancestors lived watery lifestyles like platypuses 100 million years ago – new study

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sue Hand, Professor Emeritus, Palaeontology, UNSW Sydney

    Mary_May/Shutterstock

    As the world’s only surviving egg-laying mammals, Australasia’s platypus and four echidna species are among the most extraordinary animals on Earth.

    They are also very different from each other.

    The platypus is well adapted for a semi-aquatic lifestyle, spending up to 20 hours a day swimming in Australian waterways to forage for freshwater invertebrates. Echidnas, on the other hand, live entirely on land. They are widely distributed across Australia and New Guinea, and adapted for feeding on termites, ants and earthworms.

    How did these differences emerge? Some researchers think echidnas evolved from a swimming, platypus-like ancestor. This hypothesis is based on evidence from aspects of their genes and anatomy, and from hypotheses about their evolutionary history.

    However, this idea is controversial because fossil evidence for such a profound evolutionary transformation has been lacking – until now.

    Did the ancestors of echidnas spend time in the water? It’s a controversial idea.
    Natalia Golovina/Shutterstock

    A bone from 108 million years ago

    In our study published today in PNAS, we gleaned new data from a 108-million-year-old mammal humerus (arm bone), found 30 years ago at Dinosaur Cove, Victoria, by a team from Museums Victoria.

    This arm bone, from a species called Kryoryctes cadburyi, belongs to an ancestral monotreme – a semi-aquatic burrower like the platypus. Our findings support the hypothesis that land-living echidnas evolved from a swimming ancestor.

    Kryoryctes lived during the Age of Dinosaurs (the Mesozoic), when monotremes and monotreme relatives were more common than they are today. Glimpses of this past diversity are found in the fossil record in southern Victoria and Lightning Ridge, New South Wales.

    Nevertheless, Australian Mesozoic mammal fossils are exceedingly rare, and mostly consist of teeth and jaws. Kryoryctes is the only one known from a limb bone, which provides significant information about its identity, relationships and lifestyle.

    Reconstruction of Kryoryctes cadburyi and a small dinosaur (above) at Dinosaur Cove, Victoria, Australia ~108 million years ago.
    Peter Schouten

    Tiny clues inside bones

    In order to test the evolutionary relationships of Kryoryctes, we added it to a broader data set of 70 fossil and modern mammals. From there, we calculated an evolutionary tree. This showed Kryoryctes is an ancestral monotreme.

    We also compared the external shape of the Kryroryctes humerus bone to living monotremes. These analyses indicated the bone is more like those of echidnas, rather than platypuses.

    But it was a different story on the inside. When we looked at the internal structure of the Kryoryctes humerus with several 3D scanning techniques, we uncovered microscopic features of this arm bone that were actually more like those of the platypus.

    Such tiny features inside bones yield crucial clues about the lifestyle of an animal. Numerous previous studies link bone microstructure in mammals and other tetrapods (four-limbed animals) with their ecology.

    Using the wealth of data available for living mammals, we compared characteristics of the Kryoryctes humerus microstructure to those in platypuses, echidnas and 74 other mammal species.

    These analyses confirmed that the Kryoryctes humerus has internal bone features found in semi-aquatic burrowing mammals (such as the platypus, muskrat and Eurasian otter), rather than land-living burrowing mammals such as the echidna.

    The Kryoryctes humerus we studied.
    Museums Victoria

    From water to land

    This discovery suggests that a semi-aquatic lifestyle is ancestral for all living monotremes. It also suggests the amphibious lifestyle of the modern platypus had its origins at least 100 million years ago, during the Age of Dinosaurs.

    In this scenario, the modern platypus lineage has retained the ancestral semi-aquatic burrowing lifestyle for more than 100 million years. Echidnas would have reverted to a land-based way of life more recently.

    For echidnas, a return to land appears to have resulted in adaptations such as their long bones becoming lighter, as shown in our study.

    They possibly also lost several other features more useful for spending time in the water rather than on land, including the loss of a long tail, reduction of webbing between fingers and toes, reduction of the duck-like bill to a narrow beak, and a reduced number of electroreceptors on that beak.

    However, precisely when this evolutionary transformation occurred is not yet known. The answer must wait until early echidna fossils are found – so far, nothing definitive has turned up anywhere.

    The modern habitats of monotremes are increasingly under threat from environmental degradation, interactions with humans and feral predators, and climate change. This is especially true for platypuses. To ensure the survival of this ancient lineage, we need to better understand how their unique features evolved and adapted.

    Sue Hand receives funding from the Australian Research Council

    Laura A. B. Wilson receives funding from the Australian Research Council

    Robin Beck receives funding from the UK’s National Environmental Research Council, and the Australian Research Council.

    Camilo López-Aguirre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Echidna ancestors lived watery lifestyles like platypuses 100 million years ago – new study – https://theconversation.com/echidna-ancestors-lived-watery-lifestyles-like-platypuses-100-million-years-ago-new-study-254484

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 1 billion years ago, a meteorite struck Scotland and influenced life on Earth

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Kirkland, Professor of Geochronology, Curtin University

    Stoer Head lighthouse, Scotland. William Gale/Shutterstock

    We’ve discovered that a meteorite struck northwest Scotland 1 billion years ago, 200 million years later than previously thought. Our results are published today in the journal Geology.

    This impact now aligns with some of Earth’s earliest known, land based, non-marine microbial fossils, and offers new insights into how meteorite strikes may have shaped our planet’s environment and life.

    A rocky treasure trove

    The Torridonian rocks of northwest Scotland are treasured by geologists as some of the finest archives of the ancient lakes and river systems that existed a billion years ago.

    Those water bodies were home to microbial ecosystems consisting of eukaryotes. Eukaryotes are single-celled organisms with complex internal structures that are the ancestors of all plants and animals.

    But the Torridonian environments and their associated microbial communities were dramatically disrupted when a meteor slammed into the planet.

    A drone’s-eye view of the Stac Fada Member reveals towering blocks of sandstone preserving a meteorite impact frozen in time. Look closely and you’ll spot figures for scale, dwarfed by the chaotic jumble of rock fragments encased in impact-smashed debris.
    Tony Prave

    The record of this event is preserved in a geological unit known as the Stac Fada Member. It is comprised of unusual layers of rock fragments broken and melted by the impact.

    Also, crucially, there are shock-altered minerals that closely resemble those found in famous impact sites such as Chicxulub (Mexico) and Sudbury (Canada).

    In the case of the Stac Fada, these minerals were engulfed in high-energy, ground-hugging flows of smashed rock triggered by the impact that spread across the ancient landscape.

    What is exciting about our new date for the Stac Fada impact is that it now overlaps in age with microfossils preserved elsewhere in the Torridonian rocks.

    This raises some interesting questions. For example, how did the meteorite strike influence the environmental conditions those early non-marine microbial ecosystems relied on?

    Finding out the date

    Determining when a meteorite struck is no easy task.

    We can use minerals to constrain the age, but they have to be the right kind. In this case it means something that wasn’t overly altered by the intense heat, pressure and fluids generated by the impact, yet robust enough to survive the ravages of deep geological time.

    Suitable minerals are extremely rare, but we found a few in the Stac Fada rocks. One was reidite, a mineral that only forms under extreme pressure. The other was granular zircon, a uranium-bearing mineral formed by immense impact temperatures.

    Electron microscope image of a shocked zircon: blue is granular zircon, red is reidite formed under extreme pressure from a meteorite impact.
    Timmons Erickson

    These minerals are, in effect, tiny stopwatches whose clocks start “ticking” at the time they form. Although these clocks are often damaged during the impact and the ensuing pulse of heat, we used mathematical modelling to determine the most probable time of impact.

    Together, these techniques consistently pointed to an event 1 billion years old, not 1.2 billion years old as previously suggested. Given such vast spans of time, a 20% change in age might not seem dramatic.

    However, the new age shows the timing of the impact coincides with early non-marine eukaryotic fossils. It also lines up with a major mountain-building event. This means the Torridonian lifeforms had to cope with significant, environment-altering phenomena.

    Why this is important for you, me, and life in general

    The origin of life is a deeply complex process that likely began with a series of pre-biotic chemical reactions.

    While much remains unknown, it is intriguing that two ancient meteorite impacts, the 3.5-billion-year-old North Pole impact in Western Australia and now the 1-billion-year-old Stac Fada deposit in northwest Scotland, occur close in time to major milestones in the fossil record.

    The North Pole impact occurs in a sequence of rocks containing stromatolites, some of the oldest-known fossils considered to be indicative of microbial life.

    These rippled layers in the Torridon rocks were built by ancient microbial communities, evidence of some of the earliest life on land.
    Tony Prave

    All life requires energy. The earliest forms of life are thought to be associated with volcanic hydrothermal springs. Impacts offer a plausible alternative. The immediate aftermath of a meteorite strike is extreme and hostile, and would ruin your day. But the long-term effects could support key biological processes.

    Meteorite strikes fracture rocks, generate long-lived hydrothermal systems and form crater lakes that enable the concentration of important ingredients for life, such as clays, organic molecules and phosphorus. The latter is a key element for all forms of life.

    In Scotland, the Stac Fada impact lies within an ancient river and lake environment that housed microbial ecosystems colonising the land. What makes the Stac Fada impact deposits fascinating is that, unlike most other impacts on Earth, they preserve the environments in which those pioneering organisms lived immediately prior to the impact.

    Further, the impact deposits were subsequently buried as non-marine microbial habitats became reestablished. So, the Stac Fada rocks provide an opportunity to see how microbial life recovered from impact.

    Extraterrestrial visitors in the form of meteorite collisions may not just have scarred Earth’s surface, but shaped its future, turning catastrophic events into natural crater-cradles of life.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 1 billion years ago, a meteorite struck Scotland and influenced life on Earth – https://theconversation.com/1-billion-years-ago-a-meteorite-struck-scotland-and-influenced-life-on-earth-254285

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Major survey finds most people use AI regularly at work – but almost half admit to doing so inappropriately

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Gillespie, Professor of Management; Chair in Trust, Melbourne Business School

    Matheus Bertelli/Pexels

    Have you ever used ChatGPT to draft a work email? Perhaps to summarise a report, research a topic or analyse data in a spreadsheet? If so, you certainly aren’t alone.

    Artificial intelligence (AI) tools are rapidly transforming the world of work. Released today, our global study of more than 32,000 workers from 47 countries shows that 58% of employees intentionally use AI at work – with a third using it weekly or daily.

    Most employees who use it say they’ve gained some real productivity and performance benefits from adopting AI tools.

    However, a concerning number are using AI in highly risky ways – such as uploading sensitive information into public tools, relying on AI answers without checking them, and hiding their use of it.

    There’s an urgent need for policies, training and governance on responsible use of AI, to ensure it enhances – not undermines – how work is done.

    Our research

    We surveyed 32,352 employees in 47 countries, covering all global geographical regions and occupational groups.

    Most employees report performance benefits from AI adoption at work. These include improvements in:

    • efficiency (67%)
    • information access (61%)
    • innovation (59%)
    • work quality (58%).

    These findings echo prior research demonstrating AI can drive productivity gains for employees and organisations.

    We found general-purpose generative AI tools, such as ChatGPT, are by far the most widely used. About 70% of employees rely on free, public tools, rather than AI solutions provided by their employer (42%).

    However, almost half the employees we surveyed who use AI say they have done so in ways that could be considered inappropriate (47%) and even more (63%) have seen other employees using AI inappropriately.

    Most survey respondents use free, public AI tools, such as ChatGPT.
    Tada Images/Shutterstock

    Sensitive information

    One key concern surrounding AI tools in the workplace is the handling of sensitive company information – such as financial, sales or customer information.

    Nearly half (48%) of employees have uploaded sensitive company or customer information into public generative AI tools, and 44% admit to having used AI at work in ways that go against organisational policies.

    This aligns with other research showing 27% of content put into AI tools by employees is sensitive.

    Check your answer

    We found complacent use of AI is also widespread, with 66% of respondents saying they have relied on AI output without evaluating it. It is unsurprising then that a majority (56%) have made mistakes in their work due to AI.

    Younger employees (aged 18-34 years) are more likely to engage in inappropriate and complacent use than older employees (aged 35 or older).

    This carries serious risks for organisations and employees. Such mistakes have already led to well-documented cases of financial loss, reputational damage and privacy breaches.

    About a third (35%) of employees say the use of AI tools in their workplace has increased privacy and compliance risks.

    ‘Shadow’ AI use

    When employees aren’t transparent about how they use AI, the risks become even more challenging to manage.

    We found most employees have avoided revealing when they use AI (61%), presented AI-generated content as their own (55%), and used AI tools without knowing if it is allowed (66%).

    This invisible or “shadow AI” use doesn’t just exacerbate risks – it also severely hampers an organisation’s ability to detect, manage and mitigate risks.

    A lack of training, guidance and governance appears to be fuelling this complacent use. Despite their prevalence, only a third of employees (34%) say their organisation has a policy guiding the use of generative AI tools, with 6% saying their organisation bans it.

    Pressure to adopt AI may also fuel complacent use, with half of employees fearing they will be left behind if they do not.

    Almost half of respondents said they had uploaded company financial, sales or customer information into public AI tools.
    Andrey_Popov/Shutterstock

    Better literacy and oversight

    Collectively, our findings reveal a significant gap in the governance of AI tools and an urgent need for organisations to guide and manage how employees use them in their everyday work. Addressing this will require a proactive and deliberate approach.

    Investing in responsible AI training and developing employees’ AI literacy is key. Our modelling shows self-reported AI literacy – including training, knowledge, and efficacy – predicts not only whether employees adopt AI tools but also whether they critically engage with them.

    This includes how well they verify the tools’ output, and consider their limitations before making decisions.

    Training can improve how people engage with AI tools and critically evaluate their output.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    We found AI literacy is also associated with greater trust in AI use at work and more performance benefits from its use.

    Despite this, less than half of employees (47%) report having received AI training or related education.

    Organisations also need to put in place clear policies, guidelines and guardrails, systems of accountability and oversight, and data privacy and security measures.

    There are many resources to help organisations develop robust AI governance systems and support responsible AI use.

    The right culture

    On top of this, it’s crucial to create a psychologically safe work environment, where employees feel comfortable to share how and when they are using AI tools.

    The benefits of such a culture go beyond better oversight and risk management. It is also central to developing a culture of shared learning and experimentation that supports responsible diffusion of AI use and innovation.

    AI has the potential to improve the way we work. But it takes an AI-literate workforce, robust governance and clear guidance, and a culture that supports safe, transparent and accountable use. Without these elements, AI becomes just another unmanaged liability.

    This research was supported by the Chair in Trust research partnership between the University of Melbourne and KPMG Australia and funding from KPMG International. The research was conducted independently by Professor Nicole Gillespie and Dr Steve Lockey and their research team at Melbourne Business School, The University of Melbourne, and published in collaboration with KPMG.

    – ref. Major survey finds most people use AI regularly at work – but almost half admit to doing so inappropriately – https://theconversation.com/major-survey-finds-most-people-use-ai-regularly-at-work-but-almost-half-admit-to-doing-so-inappropriately-255405

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Complaining is career suicide’: the hidden mental health crisis turning our screen industry upside down

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Hegedus, Associate Professor, Griffith Film School, Griffith University

    Shutterstock

    The Australian screen industry is often associated with fun, creativity and perhaps even glamour. But our new Pressure Point Report reveals a more troubling reality: a pervasive mental health crisis, which could see the screen industry lose a significant number of workers in the near future.

    The two-year study led by Griffith University found burnout levels mirroring those found among healthcare workers.

    Of the 864 survey responses we analysed, 72% said the screen industry is not a mentally healthy place to work, 36% frequently considered quitting in the past six months, and 25% said they would likely quit within the next six months.

    The human toll of creativity

    Working in film and television industry has been glamourised, with many aspiring creatives willing to endure difficult conditions to be part of making screen magic.

    In a fast-paced environment, where budgets and timelines are squeezed, half of the survey respondents reported facing constant unreasonable deadlines, and 57% described themselves as completely drained by the end of the day.

    Even more alarming, 59% struggled with work-life balance, having “little to no life outside of work”, and 62% felt pressured to not claim basic entitlements such as sick leave or holiday pay.

    As one participant told us:

    I’ve missed birthdays, weddings, and my kid’s school events because of impossible deadlines that could have been managed better with proper planning.

    Historically, the industry has relied on workers’ passion to offset poor conditions. However, we’re now seeing a breaking point where even the most dedicated professionals are questioning if it’s worth the personal cost.

    A culture of silence

    The concerning statistics from our study uncover an underlying culture of misconduct by both practitioners and supervisors. Almost half of respondents experienced bullying in the past year, while 35% encountered sexual harassment or discrimination.

    More troubling still, 36% of victims never formally reported incidents. They feared career damage, or that nothing would be done.

    One respondent confided:

    after witnessing how others were treated when they spoke up, I decided to stay quiet about my own experiences. It feels like complaining is career suicide in this industry.

    This response echoes many of the other voices we heard from. Such experiences can lead to a toxic cycle in which unchecked workplace behaviours further damage people’s mental health across the industry.

    Inequality compounds the problem

    Our research demonstrates the mental health burden falls disproportionately on already marginalised groups.

    Women face higher rates of unmanageable workload (54% compared to 38% for men) and poorer work/life balance. They also reported sexual harassment at more than triple the rate of men.

    LGBTQIA+ practitioners are significantly worse off, too. They experience elevated rates of depression and sleep issues.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander, culturally and linguistically diverse practitioners, and those living with a disability also face significantly higher rates of negative experiences.

    The highest rates of adverse interactions were experienced by neurodivergent professionals and those with pre-existing mental health conditions. Many of them told us that others routinely disregard their professional opinions.

    Beyond ‘wellness workshops’

    “This industry needs more than a quick fix — it needs real, lasting change,” one veteran crew member emphasised. “That means calling out toxic behaviour, backing workers with proper support, and creating fair conditions where people are treated with respect.”

    Our study highlights that surface-level solutions, such as isolated mental health workshops, can’t address the industry’s systemic problems.

    Three-quarters of industry workers reported needing mental health support specifically because of their work. We have also found deep flaws in how productions are structured – and a need for the entire industry to see film sets as workplaces just like any other.

    Genuine structural change is needed to stop the talent drain currently facing the screen industry.

    A wake-up call

    We recently presented our findings at Mental Health Matters: A Screen Leaders’ Summit, to a number of screen industry leaders, from producers to screen funding agency representatives.

    The summit discussed potential reform models from other high-stress industries, including the construction industry’s MATES program and the UK Film and TV Charity’s Whole Picture Toolkit.

    Doing more for Australia’s screen industry matters, not just because it produces entertainment for us — but because it captures our national identity and gives us a global voice.

    An exodus of talent would threaten both the quantity and quality of local content. Australia has worked hard to position itself as a global production hub, attracting major international projects and Hollywood blockbusters that create jobs and build expertise.

    If nearly a quarter of the workforce exits, the industry would severely diminish its capacity to capitalise on these opportunities.

    Peter Hegedus receives funding from Screen Queensland for developing and producing documentaries.

    Bobbi-Lea Dionysius receives funding from Screen Queensland for developing and producing documentaries and VR projects. She is affiliated with Women in Film & TV (WIFT).

    – ref. ‘Complaining is career suicide’: the hidden mental health crisis turning our screen industry upside down – https://theconversation.com/complaining-is-career-suicide-the-hidden-mental-health-crisis-turning-our-screen-industry-upside-down-254593

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Forming new habits can take longer than you think. Here are 8 tips to help you stick with them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Singh, Research Fellow, Allied Health & Human Performance, University of South Australia

    SarahMcEwan/Shutterstock

    If you’ve ever tried to build a new habit – whether that’s exercising more, eating healthier, or going to bed earlier – you may have heard the popular claim that it only takes 21 days to form a habit.

    It’s a neat idea. Short, encouraging and full of promise. But there’s just one problem: it’s not true.

    The 21-day myth can be traced back to Maxwell Maltz, a plastic surgeon in the 1960s, who observed it took about three weeks for his patients to adjust to physical changes. This idea was later picked up and repeated in self-help books, eventually becoming accepted wisdom.

    But as psychologists and behavioural scientists have since discovered, habit formation is much more complex.

    How long does it really take?

    A 2010 study followed volunteers trying to build simple routines – such as drinking water after breakfast or eating a daily piece of fruit – and found it took a median of 66 days for the behaviour to become automatic.

    We recently reviewed several studies looking at how long it took people to form health-related habits. We found, on average, it took around two to five months.

    Specifically, the studies that measured time to reach automaticity (when a behaviour becomes second nature) found that habit formation took between 59 and 154 days. Some people developed a habit in as few as four days. Others took nearly a year.

    This wide range highlights that habit formation isn’t one-size-fits-all. It depends on what the behaviour is, how often it’s repeated, how complex it is, and who’s doing it.



    Read more:
    Here’s what happens in your brain when you’re trying to make or break a habit

    What determines whether a habit will stick?

    Habit strength plays a key role in consistency. A 2021 systematic review focused on physical activity and found the stronger the habit (meaning the more automatic and less effortful the behaviour felt) the more likely people were to exercise regularly.

    It’s not entirely surprising that easy, low-effort behaviours such as drinking water or taking a daily vitamin tend to form faster than complex ones like training for a marathon.

    But whatever the habit, research shows sticking to it is not just about boosting motivation or willpower. Interventions that actively support habit formation – through repetition, cues and structure – are much more effective for creating lasting change.

    For example, programs that encourage people to schedule regular exercise at the same time each day, or apps that send reminders to drink water after every meal, help build habits by making the behaviour easier to repeat and harder to forget.

    Small, everyday actions can grow into powerful routines.
    areporter/Shutterstock

    Our research, which drew on data from more than 2,600 people, showed habit-building interventions can make a real difference across a range of behaviours – from flossing and healthy eating to regular exercise.

    But what stood out most was that even small, everyday actions can grow into powerful routines, when repeated consistently. It’s not about overhauling your life overnight, but about steadily reinforcing behaviours until they become second nature.

    8 tips for building lasting habits

    If you’re looking to build a new habit, here are some science-backed tips to help them stick:

    1. Give it time. Aim for consistency over 60 days. It’s not about perfection – missing a day won’t reset the clock.

    2. Make it easy. Start small. Choose a behaviour you can realistically repeat daily.

    3. Attach your new habit to an existing routine. That is, make the new habit easier to remember by linking it to something you already do – such as flossing right before you brush your teeth.

    4. Track your progress. Use a calendar or app to tick off each successful day.

    5. Build in rewards, for example making a special coffee after a morning walk or watching an episode of your favourite show after a week of consistent workouts. Positive emotions help habits stick, so celebrate small wins.

    6. Morning is best. Habits practised in the morning tend to form more reliably than those attempted at night. This may be because people typically have more motivation and fewer distractions earlier in the day, making it easier to stick to new routines before daily demands build up.

    7. Personal choice boosts success. People are more likely to stick with habits they choose themselves.

    8. Repetition in a stable context is key. Performing the same behaviour in the same situation (such as walking right after lunch each day) increases the chances it will become automatic.

    Habits practised in the morning tend to form more reliably than those attempted at night.
    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    Why the 21-day myth matters

    Believing habits form in 21 days sets many people up to fail. When change doesn’t “click” within three weeks, it’s easy to feel like you’re doing something wrong. This can lead to frustration, guilt and giving up entirely.

    By contrast, understanding the real timeline can help you stay motivated when things feel slow.

    Evidence shows habit formation usually takes at least two months, and sometimes longer. But it also shows change is possible.

    Our research and other evidence confirm that repeated, intentional actions in stable contexts really do become automatic. Over time, new behaviours can feel effortless and deeply ingrained.

    So whether you’re trying to move more, eat better, or improve your sleep, the key isn’t speed – it’s consistency. Stick with it. With time, the habit will stick with you.

    Ashleigh E. Smith receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Medical Research Future Fund and a Dementia Australia Research Foundation Henry Brodaty Mid-Career Fellowship.

    Ben Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Forming new habits can take longer than you think. Here are 8 tips to help you stick with them – https://theconversation.com/forming-new-habits-can-take-longer-than-you-think-here-are-8-tips-to-help-you-stick-with-them-255118

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Arsenic is everywhere – but new detection methods could help save lives

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magdalena Wajrak, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, Edith Cowan University

    Arsenic is a nasty poison that once reigned as the ultimate weapon of deception. In the 18th century, it was the poison of choice for those wanting to kill their enemies and spouses, favoured for its undetectable nature and the way its symptoms mimicked common gastrointestinal issues like stomach pain, diarrhoea and vomiting.

    One of the most famous deaths believed to be due to arsenic poisoning was that of French general Napoleon Bonaparte in 1821. While there’s still considerable controversy over the definite cause of Napoleon’s death, there is enough evidence that arsenic did at least contribute.

    Analysis of Napoleon’s hair in 1961 found it contained more than ten times the normal concentrations of arsenic. The most likely source of exposure was from an arsenic compound used as a pigment in wallpapers in the 18th century.

    Centuries later, arsenic is still widespread in the world, and causing major health problems. But thankfully scientists – including myself – are developing more effective ways of measuring arsenic to reduce the harm it causes to people.

    A tasteless poison

    Arsenic in its elemental state is a grey, brittle solid. Its nucleus has 33 protons and 42 neutrons, giving it similar chemical properties to phosphorus.

    The elemental form of arsenic is actually non-toxic; it is the compounds of arsenic that are poisonous. Pure elements have a tendency to bond to other elements and form compounds, because this provides elements with more stability.

    When arsenic combines with oxygen, it forms an extremely toxic compound called arsenic trioxide. Only 70mg of this odourless and tasteless compound is needed to kill an adult human.

    When arsenic enters our bodies, it can have major impacts on DNA. Phosphorous is an essential component of the backbone of DNA, but arsenic can replace it. This can lead to genome instability and a higher risk of genetic mutations, which can ultimately increase the risk of developing cancer.

    Arsenic also inhibits the enzymes necessary for bodily functions.

    When arsenic is inhaled or ingested, it is rapidly distributed around the body. It initially remains in the liver before being stored in the kidneys, then the spleen and lungs. Our bodies are very clever, however, and have a process capable of removing very small amounts of arsenic through urine.

    But that process takes time. So if you are exposed to high levels of arsenic, your body will not be able to eliminate it fast enough and damage will occur.

    One of the most famous deaths believed to be due to arsenic poisoning was that of Napoleon Bonaparte.
    Jacques-Louis David/Wikipedia

    Arsenic is everywhere

    The main environmental sources of arsenic are volcanoes and the erosion of mineral deposits. This can contaminate groundwater sources, as happened in Bangladesh where the building of tube wells for irrigation and drinking water from the mid 20th century onwards accidentally caused the “world’s worst mass poisoning”.

    Human sources of arsenic in the environment are predominantly from smelters of copper, gold and iron ores. These smelters often use arsenic compounds such as copper arsenate to treat and preserve wood. They also use pesticides and antiparasitic chemicals, some of which contain arsenic.

    We also find very small amounts of arsenic compounds in LED lights and in bronze.

    The most common sources of exposure to arsenic are from cigarettes and food products. Foods grown in arsenic-contaminated soil or exposed to contaminated water will absorb arsenic.

    For example, rice is very susceptible to absorbing elements from soil and water, so can contain high levels of arsenic if grown in contaminated areas. However, rice is generally safe to eat and rinsing it removes most of the arsenic it might have absorbed.

    Groundwater in Bangladesh is heavily contaminated with arsenic, posing a major public health risk.
    HM Shahidul Islam/Shutterstock

    Detecting arsenic

    Being able to detect and monitor arsenic concentrations in our environment and in our bodies is important for our health.

    However, common analytical techniques for arsenic detection are laboratory-based and require complicated infrastructure – such as constant access to argon gas to produce a plasma – and a specifically trained chemist or lab technician.

    Thankfully scientists are developing new techniques. These are not only reliable and accurate, but highly portable and simple enough to be used outside laboratories to test for arsenic in environmental, biological and industrial samples.

    One of these is an electrochemical technique, known as “anodic stripping voltammetry”.

    This technique can detect trace amounts of arsenic. It works by measuring the minute electric current produced by the poison. The amount of current produced is directly proportional to the concentration of arsenic in the sample.

    Being able to quickly, simply and accurately detect arsenic in, say, drinking water, could reduce people’s exposure to it. In turn, this would help reduce the likelihood of future health problems, such as skin cancers.

    It is impossible to eliminate arsenic from our environment. So constant monitoring of arsenic levels in the environment and food products is the best way to reduce our exposure to this notorious poison.

    Magdalena Wajrak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Arsenic is everywhere – but new detection methods could help save lives – https://theconversation.com/arsenic-is-everywhere-but-new-detection-methods-could-help-save-lives-248547

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New survey shows business outlook is weakening and uncertainty rising as the trade war bites

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Simon, Adjunct Fellow in Economics, Macquarie University

    Vivid Brands/Shutterstock

    Uncertainty is everywhere these days.

    There is even uncertainty about the uncertainty.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia, for example, noted in the minutes from its April 1 meeting:

    The most significant development in the period leading up to the meeting had been the significant rise in uncertainty about global trade policy, although the effect of this on sentiment and economic developments in Australia was not yet clear.

    A new monthly business survey, developed by a team of researchers at Macquarie University, the Business Outlook Scenarios Survey (BOSS), provides some clarity.

    A key feature of the survey, which distinguishes it from other business surveys, is its focus on uncertainty about the future, not just expectations about the most likely outcome.

    The most recent survey was conducted between April 10–17, after the announcement of the US “liberation day” tariffs on April 2. The results are concerning, but not yet alarming.

    Big rise in uncertainty

    The results suggest there has been a significant increase in business uncertainty stemming from the tariff and geopolitical tensions.

    Our survey asks roughly 500 Australian businesses about their expectations for, and perceptions of uncertainty about, key business and macroeconomic conditions.

    Running since June 2024, it tracks a sample that is representative of Australian businesses. It surveys key decision makers, such as chief financial officers and business owners, who have a detailed knowledge of their own business, and a general knowledge of the broader economy.

    The jump in uncertainty is leading to an increase in pessimistic views about businesses’ prospects. Moreover, these expectations are surrounded by elevated uncertainty.

    While this has yet to translate into plans to reduce employment and investment, businesses on average expect their costs will rise, and plan to counter the effect through increasing prices.

    More importantly, uncertainty generally leads people to defer decisions, and we see evidence of that in the April survey. Firms on average are not expecting to reduce investment or employment – but neither are they planning on increasing it.

    Inflation worries are off the boil

    When asked about the main source of uncertainty over the next 12 months, businesses used to point to inflation. In June 2024, more than 65% of businesses cited inflation as the main source of business uncertainty. While this is still a significant concern, it has fallen to 48% of respondents.

    More dramatically, however, geopolitical risk and tariffs combined were nominated by 52% of businesses in April as one of the main sources of uncertainty. This is up from about 20% of firms in June last year.

    This global uncertainty is translating into uncertainty about individual business conditions. There is an increase in the percentage of businesses that expect deteriorating conditions for their business. And there is also an increase in uncertainty about the likely outcomes for their industry conditions, product demand, and access to credit and business inputs.

    Risks for hiring and investment

    While deteriorating expectations are a source of concern, the rise in uncertainty is like a one-two punch. Businesses that are uncertain about the future will stop hiring or investing until they have a better idea of what the future holds.

    Indeed, during the Great Depression in the 1930s, uncertainty about the future exacerbated the initial downturn and helped turn it from a recession into a depression. This paralysing uncertainty is what led US President Franklin D. Roosevelt to utter the famous line “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

    While the situation in Australia is not nearly that dire, you can see the consequences of the uncertainty in businesses’ expectations for both their own businesses and the economy more generally.

    In light of the tariff tensions, the majority of businesses are adopting a “wait and see” approach and expect to keep employment and investment unchanged in the next 12 months. The majority (62%) also expect their costs will be higher and, consequently, that they will have to raise their prices.

    What it means for the RBA

    Most businesses surveyed also anticipate higher inflation and lower economic growth in Australia. That is, stagflation.

    This has important consequences for the next Reserve Bank board meeting in May.

    The March quarter consumer price index, to be released on April 30, is unlikely to show the effects of the trade tensions. But monetary policy needs to be set in a forward-looking manner. That means business expectations of higher costs, prices and inflation over the next 12 months could argue for higher interest rates than otherwise.

    Complicating the picture is the expectation of slower economic growth, which would usually argue for lower interest rates.

    On balance, the majority of businesses surveyed in April expect the Reserve Bank to lower the cash rate in response to the trade war.

    Regardless, what is undeniable is that uncertainty has increased in the last few months. And that means that policymakers need to deal with the uncertainty itself. Slightly lower interest rates or a little extra government spending cannot, of themselves, overcome the paralysing effects of uncertainty.

    As such, the Reserve Bank and the government need to talk about not just their central expectations, but their strategy for dealing with the uncertainty around those expectations.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New survey shows business outlook is weakening and uncertainty rising as the trade war bites – https://theconversation.com/new-survey-shows-business-outlook-is-weakening-and-uncertainty-rising-as-the-trade-war-bites-255101

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Here’s how to make your backyard safer and cooler next summer

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pui Kwan Cheung, Research Fellow in Urban Microclimates, The University of Melbourne

    Varavin88, Shutterstock

    Our backyards should be safe and inviting spaces all year round, including during the summer months.

    But the choices we make about garden design and maintenance, such as whether to have artificial turf or real grass for a lawn, can have serious consequences. Children, elderly people and pets are particularly susceptible to burns from contact with artificial turf on a hot day.

    Watering your lawn or planting a shady tree can also dramatically change how hot your backyard feels in summer. Ultimately, these factors will influence how much time you and your family spend outside.

    No matter where in the world you live, it is never too late to find out how to make your backyard safer and cooler next summer.

    The case against artificial turf

    Artificial turf or synthetic grass, commonly used on sports fields, has become popular in private outdoor spaces such as backyards.

    People may think it’s cheaper and easier to maintain than real turf. Perhaps they like the idea of saving water and having the look of lawn without the hassle of mowing and fertilising it.

    But this type of plastic surface is known to become very hot on a sunny day.

    We wanted to find out just how hot artificial turf can get in a suburban backyard over summer.

    So we set up an experiment to compare the temperatures of artificial turf, dry natural turf, and watered natural turf in Melbourne. We took surface temperature measurements continuously for 51 days during the summer of 2023–24.

    The research was part of a project demonstrating the benefits of green space in residential properties. The project received funding from Horticulture Innovation Australia, a grower-owned not-for-profit research and development corporation. That funding, in part, came from three water authorities.

    Thermal imaging reveals artificial turf is hotter than natural turf on a hot sunny day.
    Pui Kwan Cheung

    Feeling the heat

    In adults, irreversible burns occur when the skin is in contact with a surface that is 48°C or hotter for ten minutes.

    The temperature needed to cause skin burns in children is approximately 2°C lower, because their skin is thinner and more sensitive.

    Contact skin burns due to the high surface temperature of artificial turf has been identified as a health risk.

    In our latest research, the artificial turf reached a scorching 72°C, which is sufficient to cause irreversible skin burns in just ten seconds. In contrast, the real turf was never hot enough to cause such burns (maximum temperature of 39°C).

    Over the course of our experiment, the artificial turf was hot enough to cause adults irreversible skin burns for almost four hours a day. While adults might be expected to move away from the heat before it burns, vulnerable people such as babies and the elderly, as well as pets, are most at risk because they may be unable to move away.

    We also took measurements in real backyards on a hot sunny summer’s day. We compared the risk of skin burns on four different surfaces: artificial turf, mulch, timber and real turf. The only surface that did not get hot enough to cause skin burns in adults was real turf.

    Watering the grass can cool your backyard in more ways than one.
    Stephen Livesley

    Why should I water the lawn?

    Grass and other plants release water vapour from little holes in their leaves into the atmosphere. This process helps the plant maintain a liveable leaf temperature on a hot day, but it also cools the air around the leaves.

    It is a good idea to water your lawn throughout summer for two reasons:

    1. well-watered lawn is healthier, stays green for longer, and has more leaves to release water vapour into the air (“transpire”).

    2. more water is available to evaporate from the soil and leaves, adding to the cooling effect.

    If you’re worried about wasting drinking water on your lawn, you can install a rainwater tank or household water recycling plant. Having access to alternative water sources will become increasingly important as the world warms and the climate dries.

    More shade will cool your backyard.
    Stephen Livesley

    What about shade?

    The most effective way to make you feel cooler in your backyard is to provide adequate shade. This reduces the amount of sun energy hitting your body or the ground, heating the surface and warming the surrounding air.

    A single tree can lower the level of heat stress from extreme to moderate. This may be the difference between wanting to spend time outside on a hot day and avoiding your backyard altogether.

    Even small trees can still make you feel cooler, if they provide some shade.

    However, too-dense tree canopy cover may prevent air flow – so there is a happy medium. Air flow is necessary to move the heat away from your backyard and cool your body down.

    Taking all the above measures will keep your backyard safe and cool throughout summer. This will allow you and your family to spend more quality time in your backyard, cool your home, and improve your quality of life.

    Pui Kwan Cheung receives funding from Horticulture Innovation Australia (Hort Innovation) for the research project “demonstrating the benefits of increasing available green infrastructure in residential homes”, which is relevant to this article.
    The project involves co-investment from South East Water, Greater Western Water, Yarra Valley Water, the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (Victoria), Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure (New South Wales), The University of Melbourne, and the Australian Government. Hort Innovation is the grower-owned, not-for-profit research and development corporation for Australian horticulture.

    Stephen Livesley receives funding from Horticulture Innovation Australia, the Australian Research Council and various water authorities.

    – ref. Here’s how to make your backyard safer and cooler next summer – https://theconversation.com/heres-how-to-make-your-backyard-safer-and-cooler-next-summer-254928

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Democracy on display or a public eyesore? The case for cracking down on election corflutes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer in Marketing, Research School of Management, Australian National University

    In my time researching political advertising, one common communication method that often generates complaints is the proliferation of campaign corflutes.

    Politicians love them. Not so, many members of the general public. People are so fed up with candidate posters that there are numerous tales of late night vandalism, including deliberate acts of road rage aimed at destroying them.

    And yet, at every single election – local, state and federal – the hated signs spring up once again to populate front gardens, streetscapes and open spaces.

    Given how divisive they are, why do politicians persist with them? What are the laws around their use? And is South Australia on the right track by banning corflutes in public places?

    It’s a jungle out there

    To begin with, all corflutes must comply with the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), which includes displaying a “written and authorised” statement

    that enables voters to know the source of the electoral or political communication.

    Posters can’t mislead voters regarding candidates’ political affiliation. In 2022, corflutes authorised by Advance Australia in the ACT were ruled misleading because they strongly implied independent Senate candidate David Pocock was running for the Greens.

    But in terms of size, number, and placement – welcome to the wild west of Australian political communications.

    Size varies from the standard 60cm x 90cm corflute, to much larger signs like the one promoting Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer that was stolen by the husband of Teal MP Monique Ryan in the seat of Kooyong.

    Neither the number nor the placement of signs are regulated by electoral law, other than a requirement they not be placed within 6 metres of a polling place.

    Corflutes are governed by local council laws and regulations relating to political signage. This leads to a wide variation around Australia. Some areas have no rules on number or placement, which is where you usually find the issues.

    By contrast, corflutes are strictly regulated in South Australia. Laws passed last year banned election posters from public infrastructure, though they are still permitted on private property.

    Democracy on show

    Corflutes have several purposes, especially for new candidates.

    Independent Jessie Price, who is running for Bean in the ACT, tells me corflutes are important for her to quickly achieve name and face recognition in the campaign.

    Then there is their design. Campaign corflutes have traditionally incorporated faces, colours and slogans. These days, they can also include QR codes, URLs, and social media handles. These formal elements also aid differentiation and awareness.

    Next is the strategy of placement. Being an offline method, you can’t hit “skip” when you see one. And they are often used as a way of marking out turf, especially when placed in front yards.

    For minor parties and independents, they are an affordable way to help level the playing field against Labor and the Coalition. In a way, they act as a basic barometer of the strength of our democracy.

    Do they work?

    Yes. And no.

    When it comes to design, corflutes that closely follow the same principles used for road signs work the most effectively. This is because of the speed at which we process information.

    Research has found that around two seconds is needed to absorb the details printed on signs. Up to five seconds’ exposure is needed to commit the information to short-term memory. Repeated exposure to the same sign helps when it comes to recall.

    That is why colour, font size and word count are all important. The bigger the font, the better the chances of it being seen from further away, and hitting that two-second count. For example, on a 100km/h road, letters need to be at least 35cm in size.

    The same rules apply to election posters. Ideally, an effective corflute would have a single name in 70cm white font on a red background. Two colours for contrast, large lettering and using only two or three words, would have the best chance of being remembered.

    Being novel with design, such as independent candidate Kim Huynh’s striking corflute in the 2016 ACT election, can also boost awareness and differentiation.

    Just an eyesore

    Corflutes will only work if the voter is already predisposed to the candidate being promoted. If that’s not the case, the sign may have the opposite affect by repeatedly reminding the voter of a person they don’t like.

    For some, they will hate corflutes regardless of the candidates. That is because the outdoors is the last true escape from political communications in an era of digital and online advertising that runs up until election day. Some also dislike how politicians can get away with it, while most others would be fined.

    Do they actually change behaviour? Not directly, but they raise awareness and change perceptions towards candidates and parties, which is their ultimate objective.

    Time for a rethink

    There is a case to reform the electoral laws to regulate the size, placement, and number of corflutes.

    One proposal worth considering would be a strict limit of 50 standard-sized signs per candidate, per electorate and erected in designated places. This would mean more equal opportunity for minor parties and independents, and help reduce public anger over the visual pollution we see at election time.

    No matter how much people hate corflutes, they do serve a higher purpose post election. Come Sunday, they will be much sought after as tomato stakes and flooring for chook pens.

    Andrew Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Democracy on display or a public eyesore? The case for cracking down on election corflutes – https://theconversation.com/democracy-on-display-or-a-public-eyesore-the-case-for-cracking-down-on-election-corflutes-255219

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How ICE is becoming a secret police force under the Trump administration

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee Morgenbesser, Associate Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University

    Secret police are a quintessential feature of authoritarian regimes. From Azerbaijan’s State Security Service to Zimbabwe’s Central Intelligence Organisation, these agencies typically target political opponents and dissidents through covert surveillance, imprisonment and physical violence.

    In contrast to the regular police and armed forces, secret police primarily use preemptive repression to thwart threats to the government.

    In Nazi Germany, for example, Gestapo informants penetrated all levels of society, producing an atmosphere of distrust among those against Adolf Hitler. In Uganda, Idi Amin’s State Research Bureau employed sophisticated spying equipment and intercepted mail at the post office to root out supposed saboteurs.

    In Syria, Bashar al-Assad relied on the General Intelligence Directorate to oversee a network of torture centres. And in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro has used the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (Sebin) to spy on opponents overseas, often running operations out of diplomatic missions.

    Since US President Donald Trump took power in January, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has become a far more visible and fearsome force on American streets.

    Though ICE is ostensibly still bound by constitutional limits, the way it has been operating bears the hallmarks of a secret police force in the making.

    As an expert on authoritarian regimes, I’ve studied historical and contemporary secret police forces extensively across Africa, Asia and Europe. They typically meet five criteria:

    • they’re a police force targeting political opponents and dissidents

    • they’re not controlled by other security agencies and answer directly to the dictator

    • the identity of their members and their operations are secret

    • they specialise in political intelligence and surveillance operations

    • they carry out arbitrary searches, arrests, interrogations, indefinite detentions, disappearances and torture.

    How close is ICE to becoming a secret police force? Let’s consider each of these criteria.

    Targeting dissidents

    ICE has used the pretext of combating antisemitism to target dissidents. A branch of the agency previously used to target drug smugglers and human traffickers has reportedly been directed to scan social media for posts sympathetic to Hamas.

    On March 8, ICE arrested the prominent pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil, a legal resident. It was a similar story for Rumeysa Ozturk, a university student grabbed off the street on March 25 by ICE agents.

    Trump has cited the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 as the legal pretext for ICE’s actions in these cases and others. The law allows the US government to deport anyone whose presence has “adverse foreign policy consequences” for the country.

    Because Khalil and others are being targeted for their activism, legal scholars say the government appears to be “retaliating” against constitutionally protected free speech it disagrees with.

    Directly controlled by a dictator

    While ICE does not report directly to Trump, the agency is controlled by people who have shown intense loyalty to him.

    ICE is part of the Department of Homeland Security, which is overseen by stalwart Trump ally Kristi Noem. She is supported by Tom Homan, a former ICE director who Trump appointed as his “border czar” in November 2024.

    Despite a court order barring the deportations of alleged Venezuelan gang members to a prison in El Salvador, Homan has remained defiant:

    We are not stopping. I don’t care what the judges think.

    The pertinent question now is whether Noem or Homan would refuse to follow a dictate from Trump in the face of a direct court order.

    Opaque operations

    ICE agents are increasingly operating in secret. The individuals who took Ozturk off the street in a widely shared video claimed to be police officers, even though they were in plain clothes and face marks.

    Similarly, ICE agents in plain clothes detained two men during a raid on a courthouse in Charlottesville, Virginia, on April 22. When two bystanders asked to see a warrant, they were ordered not to “impede” the agents’ lawful duties. ICE later said the two women would be prosecuted.

    Also last week, ICE agents attempted to arrest a man at a Wisconsin courthouse without a warrant. After a judge intervened, she was arrested herself by the FBI and charged with two felonies.

    This shroud of opacity has been accompanied by an end to local agency liaison meetings aimed at helping people seek answers to ICE’s actions.

    Surveillance capabilities

    ICE is organised into two distinct law enforcement components, giving it both political intelligence gathering and surveillance capabilities.

    Its Homeland Security Investigations arm includes an intelligence division, while its Enforcement and Removal Operations arm uses third-party companies such as Geo Group, Giant Oak, and Palantir to conduct mass surveillance.

    Most worryingly, ICE is trying to procure greater intelligence and surveillance capabilities by soliciting pitches from private companies to monitor threats across the internet.

    According to a procurement document, contractors would be directed to focus on the backgrounds of social media users and use facial recognition capabilities to gather information on people. Criticisms of ICE itself would be monitored, too.

    Unlawful policing

    There has been a stream of reports exposing how ICE is conducting arbitrary searches, arrests, interrogations, and indefinite detentions.

    Some of the most egregious reported examples include:

    Since Trump’s inauguration, at least three people have died in ICE detention facilities, the latest in a string of fatalities in recent years.

    Prolonged solitary confinement is reportedly widespread. UN experts say this can amount to torture.

    Potentially expanded scope

    Overall, the evidence shows ICE meets most of the criteria for being a secret police force. It has yet to target political opponents, which I define narrowly as members of the Democratic Party. And it is not directly controlled by Trump, although the current structure provides him with plausible deniability.

    While the agency is far from resembling history’s most feared secret police forces, there have so far been few constraints on how it operates.

    The worst may be yet to come. A budget bill making its way through Congress would provide ICE with up to US$175 billion (A$274 billion) in funding over the next decade. (Its current annual budget is US$9 billion, or A$14 billion.) This would supercharge its use of surveillance, imprisonment and physical violence.

    When combined with a potential shift towards targeting US citizens for dissent and disobedience, ICE is fast becoming a key piece in the repressive apparatus of American authoritarianism.

    Lee Morgenbesser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How ICE is becoming a secret police force under the Trump administration – https://theconversation.com/how-ice-is-becoming-a-secret-police-force-under-the-trump-administration-255019

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Five ways to make cities more resilient to climate change

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul O’Hare, Lecturer in Human Geography and Urban Development, Manchester Metropolitan University

    John_T/Shutterstock

    Climate breakdown poses immense threats to global economies, societies and ecosystems. Adapting to these impacts is urgent. But many cities and countries remain chronically unprepared in what the UN calls an “adaptation gap”.

    Building climate resilience is notoriously difficult. Economic barriers limit investment in infrastructure and technology. Social inequities undermine the capacity of vulnerable populations to adapt. And inconsistent policies impede coordinated efforts across sectors and at scale.

    My research looks at how cities can better cope with climate change. I have identified five ways to catalyse more effective – and ultimately more progressive – climate adaptation and resilience.

    1. Don’t just ‘bounce back’ after a crisis

    When wildfires, storms or floods hit, all too often governments prioritise rebuilding as rapidly as possible.

    Though understandable, resilience doesn’t just entail coping with the effects of climate change. Instead of “bouncing back” to a pre-shock status, those in charge of responding need to encourage “bouncing forward”, creating places that are at less risk in the first place.

    After the Christchurch earthquake in February 2011, the New Zealand authorities “built back better”, improving building codes and regulations and relocating vulnerable communities. Critics suggested reconstruction provided too much uncertainty and failed to acknowledge private property rights. But the rebuild did encourage better integration of planning policies and land use practices.



    Read more:
    ‘Build back better’ sounds great in theory, but does the government really know what it means in practice?

    Swales and sustainable urban drainage in Gorton climate resilient park, Manchester, UK.
    Paul O’Hare, CC BY-NC-ND

    2. Informed by risk

    It can be difficult to predict what the consequences of a crisis might be. Cities are complex, interconnected places. Transboundary risks – the consequences that ripple across a place – must be taken into account.

    The best climate adaptation plans recognise that vulnerability varies across places, contexts and over time. The most effective are holistic: tailored to specific locations and every aspect of society.

    Assessments must also consider both climatic and non-climatic features of risk. In 2015, in the UK, a flood affected one of Lancaster’s electrical substations, causing a city-wide power failure that took several days to rectify. In this instance, as with so many others, people had to deal not just with the direct impacts of flooding, but the ‘cascading’ or knock-on impacts of infrastructure damage.



    Read more:
    Giving rivers room to move: how rethinking flood management can benefit people and nature

    Many existing assessments have limited scope. But others do acknowledge how ageing infrastructures and pressures to develop land to accommodate ever intensifying urban populations exacerbate urban flood risk. Others too, such as the recently published Cambridge climate risk plan, detail how climate risk intersects with the range of services provided by local government.

    Systems thinking – an approach to problem-solving that views problems as part of wider, interconnected systems – can be applied to identify interdependencies with other drivers of change.

    Good risk assessments will, for example, take note of demographics, age profiles and the socio-economic circumstances of neighbourhoods, enabling targeted support for particularly vulnerable communities. This can help ensure communities and systems adapt to evolving challenges as climate change intensifies, and as society evolves over time.

    Complex though this might be, city leaders can access advice about improving risk assessments, including from the C40 network, a global coalition of 100 mayors committed to addressing climate change.

    3. Transformative action

    There is no such thing as a natural disaster. The effects of disasters including floods and earthquakes are influenced by pre-existing, often chronic, social and economic conditions such as poverty or poor housing.

    Progressive climate resilience looks beyond the immediacy of shocks, attending to the underlying root causes of vulnerability and inequality. This ensures that society is not only better prepared to withstand adverse events in the future, but thrives in the face of uncertainty.

    Progressive climate resilience therefore demands tailored responses depending on the population and place. In Bangladesh, for instance, communities are building floating gardens to grow crops during floods. These enhance food security and provide a sustainable livelihood option in flood-prone areas.

    Floating vegetable gardens in Bangladesh.
    Mostafijur Rahman Nasim/Shutterstock



    Read more:
    Climate change isn’t fair but Tony Juniper’s new book explains how a green transition could be ‘just’

    4. Collective approaches

    Effective climate resilience demands collective action. Sometimes referred to as a “whole of society” response, this entails collaboration and shared responsibility to address the multifaceted challenges posed by a changing climate.

    The most effective initiatives avoid self-protection, of people, buildings and cities alike, and consider both broader and longer-term risks. For instance, developments not at significant risk should still incorporate adaptation measures including rainwater harvesting or enhanced greening to lower a city’s climate risk profile and benefit local communities, neighbouring authorities and surrounding regions.

    So, progressive resilience is connected, comprehensive and inclusive. Solidarity is key, leveraging resources to address common challenges and fostering a sense of shared purpose and mutual support.

    Solar panels on the surface of a reservoir not only provide a source of renewable energy but also provide shade and therefore help conserve water.
    Tom Wang/Shutterstock

    5. Exploiting co-benefits

    The most effective resilience projects exploit co-benefits – what the UN calls “multiple resilience dividends” – to leverage additional benefits across sectors and policies, reducing vulnerability to shocks while addressing other social and environmental challenges.

    In northern Europe, for example, moorlands can be restored to retain water helping alleviate downstream flooding, but also to capture carbon and provide vital habitats for biodiversity.

    In south-East Asia solar panels installed on reservoirs generate renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while providing shade to reduce evaporation and conserve water resources during droughts.

    In short, adaptation is obviously crucial for tackling climate change across the globe. But the real challenge is to deal with the impacts of climate change while simultaneously creating communities that are fairer, healthier, and better equipped to face any manner of future risks.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Paul O’Hare receives funding from the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Award reference NE/V010174/1.

    – ref. Five ways to make cities more resilient to climate change – https://theconversation.com/five-ways-to-make-cities-more-resilient-to-climate-change-252853

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: pollster Kos Samaras on how voters are leaving the major parties behind

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    As we enter the final days of campaigning, Labor leads with its nose in front on most polls, but the devil is in the detail of particular seats.

    To help get a read on what the voters are feeling at this late stage, we’re joined by RedBridge director Kos Samaras.

    RedBridge – a political research company, whose directors include both former Labor strategists like Samaras and former Liberal strategist Tony Barry – has been conducting focus groups and polling throughout the campaign.

    On Labor’s polling lead, Samaras says

    At the moment we’re looking at a situation where Labor will end up possibly forming minority government, with an outside chance of majority.

    On the large number of soft voters, Samaras says soft voters are more likely to represent people shifting from the majors to the minor parties, rather then from Liberal to Labor.

    The best way we can describe soft voters is it’s a permanent state of mind, and again we go back to talking about younger voters here, or those under the age of 45 in particular, who have very low levels of values connection to party politics in this country.

    Very low numbers of people switch from the majors these days. So I think a lot of political strategists, particularly on the Coalition side, still think they are living in the world of 20 years ago where a large soft vote means people will just transfer their entire support over to the other major party. That no longer is the case.

    By Saturday April 27, more than 2.3 million Australians (more than 13%) had already voted with a week to go to election day, according to analyst Antony Green. More than half a million votes were cast on the first day alone – a new record.

    On that early voting trend, Samaras says while it’s “standard practice now” that people vote early, both major parties have been too slow to adapt to this change.

    I would say, we haven’t seen any real evidence of the major parties really understanding the importance of starting early, although I would say Labor did start very early in the beginning of March. But you saw that the Coalition was very late to the game.

    I think there’s a way to go before the majors fully wrap their heads around that Australians are now voting very differently, and they need to actually alter their campaign to suit those practices.

    After a lacklustre campaign, voters are seeing Albanese as “the least worst option”:

    The best way we can capture it is they view Anthony Albanese as the least worst option and we can see that in our quantitative analysis as well. Both major parties and both leaders are still in the negative territory but Labor and Albanese have improved their position dramatically, whilst at the same time the Coalition and Peter Dutton’s ratings have actually dropped.

    And on political candidates lying in elections, Samaras says Australians think

    They all lie. That’s fundamentally what most Australians will tell you. They all lie and they don’t live the lives we live. That’s the sort of saying we hear all the time.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: pollster Kos Samaras on how voters are leaving the major parties behind – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-pollster-kos-samaras-on-how-voters-are-leaving-the-major-parties-behind-255421

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Vanuatu communities growing climate resilience in wake of Cyclone Lola

    Communities in Vanuatu are learning to grow climate resilient crops, 18 months after Cyclone Lola devastated the country.

    The category 5 storm struck in October 2023, generating wind speeds of up to 215 kmph, which destroyed homes, schools, plantations, and left at least four people dead.

    It was all the worse for following twin cyclones Judy and Kevin earlier that year.

    Save the Children Vanuatu country director Polly Banks said they have been working alongside Vanuatu’s Ministry of Agriculture and local partners, supporting families through the Tropical Cyclone Lola Recovery Programme.

    “It really affected backyard gardening and the communities across the areas affected – their ability to pursue an income and also their own nutritional needs,” she said.

    She said the programme looked at the impact of the cyclone on backyard gardening and on people’s economic reliance on what they grow in their gardens, and developed a recovery plan to respond.

    “We trained community members and also provided them with the equipment to establish cyclone resilient nurseries.

    Ready for harsh weather
    “So for example, nurseries that can be put up and then pulled down when a harsh weather event – including cyclones but even heavy rainfall — is arriving.

    “There was a focus on these climate resilient nurseries, but also through that partnership with the Department of Agriculture, there was also a much stronger focus than we’ve had before on teaching community members climate smart agricultural techniques.”

    Banks said these techniques included open pollinating seed and learning skills such as grassing; and another part of the project was introducing more variety into people’s diets.

    She said out of the project has also come the first seed bank on Epi Island.

    “That seed bank now has a ready supply of seeds, and the community are adding to that regularly, and they’re taking those seeds from really climate-resilient crops, so that they have a cyclone secure storage facility,” she said.

    “The next time a cyclone happens — and we know that they’re going to become more ferocious and more frequent — the community are ready to replant the moment that the cyclone passes.

    Setting up seed bank
    “But in setting the seed bank up as well, the community have been taught how to select the most productive seeds, the seeds that show the most promise; how to dry them out; how to preserve them.”

    Banks said they were also working with the Department of Agriculture in the delivery of a community-based climate resilience project, which is funded by the Green Climate Fund.

    Rolled out across 282 communities across the country, a key focus of it is the creation of more climate-resilient backyard gardening, food preservation and climate resilient nurseries.

    “We’re also setting up early warning systems through the provision of internet to really remote communities so that they have better access to more knowledge about when a big storm or a cyclone is approaching and what steps to take.

    “But that particular project is still just a drop in the ocean in terms of the adaptation needs that communities have.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: Labor to slash more consultant costs and increase visa charges to pay for fresh election commitments

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The government has dug out last-minute savings of more than
    A$7 billion, to ensure its election commitments are more than offset in every year of the forward estimates.

    Its costings, released Monday, include savings of $6.4 billion from further reducing spending on consultants, contractors and labour hire, as well as non-wage expenses including travel, hospitality and property.

    The second saving is $760 million from increasing the visa application fee for primary student visa applicants to $2000 from July 1.

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers told a news conference Labor’s costings “show that we will more than offset our election campaign commitments in every year of the forward estimates”.

    “We will finish this election campaign with the budget in a stronger position than at the start of the election campaign”.

    “We have improved the budget position by more than $1 billion, comparing the pre-election outlook to the costings that we release today,” he said.

    With its costings out, Labor is piling the pressure onto the opposition to produce its numbers.

    “We call on the Coalition now to come clean on their cuts. We’ve made it very clear what our costs are and how we will pay for the commitments that we have made in this election campaign,” Chalmers said.

    The opposition “need to come clean on what their secret cuts for nuclear reactors means for Medicare, for pensions and payments, for skills and housing and other essential investments.

    “They have committed more than $60 billion in this election campaign and in their policy commitments, and that’s before we get to their $600 billion of nuclear reactors.”

    Chalmers said if the opposition costings did not include the cost of the nuclear reactors they “will not be worth the paper they are written on”.

    Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said opposition costings, coming later this week, would project a stronger budget position than Labor’s. He also said if the Coalition was elected it would have an economic statement later this year.

    As the costings war ramps up, ratings agency S&P warned Australia’s AAA credit rating could be threatened if election promises resulted in larger structural deficits, and debt and interest expenses increased more than expected.

    Given deficits and international circumstances, “how the elected government funds its campaign pledges and rising spending will be crucial for maintaining the rating”, the agency said.

    Asked about the comments, Chalmers said: “I say to that particular agency, indeed, all of the ratings agencies, that in our time in office, we’ve engineered the biggest positive turnaround in a budget of any parliamentary term ever”. He pointed to the improvement in the budget numbers during the campaign to underline Labor’s credentials.

    The fresh impact of Labor’s promises on the bottom line has also been limited because most of them were already factored into the budget.

    After the savings and spends are netted out the deficit for 2025-26 is estimated to be $41.9 billion compared to the $42.2 billion in the pre-election economic and fiscal outlook.

    Chalmers says Dutton to build nuclear reactor in his own seat

    Jim Chalmers must carry off the prize for the most brazen “scare” of a campaign full of attempted scares.

    Chalmers picked up on Anthony Albanese’s question to Peter Dutton in Sunday’s debate, when the PM asked the opposition leader whether he’d be willing to have a nuclear power plant in his seat of Dickson. Dutton said he would.

    Chalmers’ message to voters in “that wonderful part of southeast Queensland” is: “your local member wants to build a nuclear reactor in your suburbs.”

    “[The Labor candidate,] Ali France, is not going to build a nuclear reactor in your local community but Peter Dutton wants to.

    “I would encourage you to think about that […] as you choose your local member,” Chalmers told his news conference.

    The treasurer kept a straight face while delivering this warning to Dickson voters.

    Dutton questions Welcome to Country ceremonies at Anzac Dawn services

    Peter Dutton has widened his criticism of the extent of Welcome to Country ceremonies by saying he does not believe they belong at Anzac Day dawn services.

    He said that listening to veterans, “I think the majority view would be that they don’t want it on that day”. But he said it was an individual decision up to the RSLs.

    Discussion of the Welcome to Country ceremonies has come to the fore after a group of neo-Nazis heckled the ceremony at the Shrine of Remembrance service on Friday. It also came up in Sunday’s debate between the leaders, when Dutton said the ceremonies should be reserved for significant occasions such as the opening of parliament.

    Questioned by reporters on Monday, Dutton said the acknowledgment to country given by Qantas when planes landed was “over the top”.

    “We are all equal Australians,” he said. “I believe we should stand behind one flag united to help Indigenous Australians deal with disparity around health outcomes, around education outcomes, around housing, around safety […] I want to provide support for practical reconciliation. The prime minister’s policy is to please inner city Greens, which is not something we signed up to.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: Labor to slash more consultant costs and increase visa charges to pay for fresh election commitments – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-labor-to-slash-more-consultant-costs-and-increase-visa-charges-to-pay-for-fresh-election-commitments-255386

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How much do election promises cost? And why have we had to wait so long to see the costings?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra

    With the May 3 federal election less than a week away, voters have only just received Labor’s costings and are yet to hear from the Coalition.

    At the 2022 election, the costings were not released for nearly two months after polling day.

    Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley last week told Sky News the Coalition costings will be “released in the lead up to election day and will be able to be fully interrogated”.

    This is now too late for the voters who have already cast their ballots. We have seen a record number of pre-poll votes this election, with more than 2.3 million as of Saturday. This means a sizeable percentage of the electorate has voted without knowing what their votes will cost.

    Voting without all the facts

    Whichever side wins, taxpayers eventually pay to implement policies. So knowing at least in broad terms the costs of the policies would be helpful.

    The Coalition has probably had many of its policies costed by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office. This process is thorough and impartial.

    Importantly, the Parliamentary Budget Office costs policies over ten years. This allows the full costs of policies to be understood better. Some policies such as large infrastructure take many years before the full impact on the budget is felt.

    Labor has already published the costs of many of its policies in the March 25 federal budget. This only covered the forward estimates, three years into the future, but is reliable for most policies. But we still need the costings for policies announced post-budget.

    The true picture?

    Even when we see the costings from both of the main parties, we can have no confidence their lists are accurate and complete. Parties may omit costings that might attract criticism.

    They may also present costings prepared by consultants rather than the Parliamentary Budget Office. You may recall controversy late last year over private modelling of the Coalition’s plans for nuclear power.

    Unfortunately we have to wait until after the election for a comprehensive and independent set of costings.

    The Parliamentary Budget Office does not publish its full list of costings (in the election commitments report) until well after the election. This is either 30 days from the end of the caretaker period or seven days before the new parliament first sits, whichever comes later.

    The election commitments report has some accountability value in relation to the party that forms government but does not help inform voters. It is a mystery why anyone would be interested in the costs of policies of the losing side. But they still must be published, according to electoral law.

    The report must include the major parties, although minor parties and independents can also be included in the report if they wish.

    Are there other approaches?

    By contrast, in New South Wales the state Parliamentary Budget Office publishes a complete set of costings five days before the election. Policies announced after this date miss out but these rarely affect the budget bottom line.

    Although, as occurs federally, many voters cast their ballots in advance, at least NSW’s approach gives most voters a chance to see the costs. This encourages the major parties to compete to produce a fiscally responsible total.

    The NSW approach is self-policing. Each major party studies the statements and if the other side omits something – large or small – they rapidly and loudly complain. Parties therefore try to make their policy lists as accurate as possible.

    Both sides are obliged by law to provide the budget office with all the proposed policies of the leader’s party.

    Toting up all the costs

    Federally, the budget office takes on the time-consuming job of tracking down all the policy announcements to cost and include in its post-election report.

    The differences arise from the different legislation that applies to each PBO.

    NSW has arguably an easier job because it costs policies only for the premier and leader of the opposition. The federal budget office costs for all members of parliament.

    The federal system requires policies submitted during the caretaker period, and their costings, must be published “as soon as practicable”. But major parties are highly unlikely to submit a policy only to have it and its costing released at a time not of its choosing.

    The requirement is likely motivated by transparency, but clashes with political reality. In NSW costings remain confidential until the leader advises the budget office the policy has been announced. This gives parties a way to have policies costed with a low risk of their premature release.

    DIY assessments

    Federally, there are other ways to estimate the costs of policies. The budget office has a Build your Own Budget Tool, and a tool for modelling alternative
    income tax proposals (SMART), both available online.

    These provide a fair approximation and are often used by journalists trying to get behind political announcements.

    The OECD lists 35 independent fiscal bodies in 29 OECD countries responsible for assessing election costings. Some are tiny, with just a few analysts. Some are
    huge and influential, like the US Congressional Budget Office. Few have the same focus on costing election policies that applies in Australia.

    Costs are a big deal here. Both parties have run advertisements attacking the other side on the question of whether their policies are affordable.

    On major policies such as the Coalition plans for nuclear power there are massive differences between cost estimates put forward by each side. Such differences could be resolved by an independent and impartial costing. This is why Australian voters deserve to see such costings as soon as possible.

    Stephen Bartos was NSW Parliamentary Budget Officer for the past three NSW general elections. He is now a professor at the University of Canberra.

    – ref. How much do election promises cost? And why have we had to wait so long to see the costings? – https://theconversation.com/how-much-do-election-promises-cost-and-why-have-we-had-to-wait-so-long-to-see-the-costings-255104

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Big and small spending included in Labor costings, but off-budget items yet to be revealed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra

    The federal budget will be stronger than suggested in last month’s budget, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers who released Labor’s costings on Monday.

    Many of the policies included in the costings were already detailed in either the 2025 Budget or the Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook, so are shown as having a net zero cost.

    But that does not mean they are costless. It means simply that their costs were included in previously published budget updates.

    Monday’s media announcement is akin to the reconciliation table published in each update, prepared by the Treasury and Finance departments setting out how the numbers have changed.

    It seems likely this media release drew on the same methodology.

    It includes two savings measures. One is relatively small: $700 million from increasing the visa application charge for primary student visas. The big saving is $6.4 billion from further reducing spending on consultants, contractors, labour hire, and non-wage expenses such as travel, hospitality and property.

    Travel, hospitality and property expenses are small bikkies. Undoubtedly departments could make savings on these, but they won’t get anywhere near the total. The bulk of the savings will come from reducing spending on consultants and contractors.

    Labor has shown that such savings on consultants are possible; it did it in its first term. However, counterbalancing this, we saw increased spending on the public service.

    It is the same problem as with the Coalition’s promise to make savings by cutting public servants. Without cuts to programs and activities, work remains to be done. People have to be employed to do that work, leading either to more spending on the public service (Labor) or bringing back consultants (Coalition).

    There was no independent signoff suggesting Monday’s release included all of Labor’s policy announcements. We won’t get that until the Parliamentary Budget Office does its election commitments report.

    But this full list of costings is not released by the PBO until well after the election. This is either 30 days from the end of the caretaker period or seven days before the new parliament first sits, whichever comes later.

    However, Monday’s costings release does appear comprehensive, including not only the large headline announcements but several announcements of less than a million dollars a year.

    What are missing, though, are costings of items that are off-budget because they are balance sheet adjustments – for example, the reduction in student HECS debt.

    These do have a financial impact but due to their accounting treatment are not disclosed as hitting the budget balance. Ideally, these should be disclosed as well.

    Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Big and small spending included in Labor costings, but off-budget items yet to be revealed – https://theconversation.com/big-and-small-spending-included-in-labor-costings-but-off-budget-items-yet-to-be-revealed-255425

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A ketamine nasal spray will be subsidised for treatment-resistant depression. Here’s what you need to know about Spravato

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nial Wheate, Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University

    WPixz/Shutterstock

    An antidepressant containing a form of the drug ketamine has been added to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), making it much cheaper for the estimated 30,000 Australians with treatment-resistant depression. This is when a patient has tried multiple forms of treatment for major depression – usually at least two antidepressant medications – without any improvement.

    From May 1, a dose of Spravato (also known as esketamine hydrochloride) will cost $A31.60 and $7.70 for concession card holders.

    However, unlike oral antidepressants, Spravato can’t be taken at home. Here’s how it works, and who it’s expected to help.

    What is Spravato?

    The chemical ketamine is used as an anaesthetic. In this formulation it combines both the right-handed (designated “R”) and left-handed (called “S”) forms of the molecule.

    This means they are mirror images of each other, similar to how your left hand is a mirror image of your right hand. The left- and right-hand forms can have different effects in the body.

    Spravato contains only the left-handed version, giving the drug its generic name esketamine.

    Spravato works by increasing the levels of glutamate in the brain. Glutamate is a key chemical messenger molecule that excites brain nerve cells, lifting and improving mood. It also plays a role in learning and forming memories.

    How is it taken?

    Spravato cannot be taken at home.

    A patient can self-administer, but it must be done at a registered treatment facility, such as a hospital, under the supervision of medical staff so they can look out for blood pressure changes and monitor potential side effects.

    The drug is provided as a single-use nasal spray. This application means it’s absorbed directly through the nasal lining into the brain, so it starts to work within minutes.

    Spravato must also be taken alongside an oral antidepressant. This will be a new one the patient hasn’t tried before. In clinical trials, it was usually an SNRI or SSRI medication.

    When a patient first starts on Spravato, they are given the spray twice a week in the first month. It is then administered once a week for the second month, and then weekly or fortnightly after that.

    Once there are signs the medicine is working, treatment is continued for at least six months.

    You can use the spray yourself but it must be under medical supervision in a registered facility.
    Scarc/Shutterstock

    How effective is it?

    Spravato was approved for sale in Australia based on clinical trial data from more than 1,600 patients who were administered the drug for a period of four weeks. Each was given either Spravato, or a nasal placebo, and an oral antidepressant.

    Patients were given a starting dose of either 28 or 56mg, which could be then increased up to 84mg by their doctor.

    By the end of the four weeks, a greater percentage of patients who were given Spravato were found to have had a meaningful response to the treatment when compared with patients who received the placebo. Patients who were taking Spravato were also found to relapse at a lower rate. For those who did relapse, it took the Spravato patients longer to relapse when compared with patients who took the placebo.

    It is expected Spravato will benefit a wide range of patients. The clinical trials demonstrated effectiveness for men and women, people aged 18 to 64, and those from a range of different ethnic backgrounds.



    Read more:
    Depression too often gets deemed ‘hard to treat’ when medication falls short

    Potential side effects

    As with any medicine, Spravato may cause side effects, some of which can be serious. The most common include:

    • dissociation (feeling disconnected from yourself or what is around you)
    • dizziness
    • nausea and vomiting
    • drowsiness
    • headache
    • change in taste
    • vertigo.

    Because Spravato can potentially increase blood pressure, medical staff will monitor a patient before and after it is administered.

    Usually, blood pressure spikes around 40 minutes after taking the drug, so a reading is taken around this time. After taking Spravato, if their blood pressure has stayed low, or it’s dropping, the patient is given the all-clear to go home.

    Due to the potential for this and other serious side effects, Spravato carries a black triangle warning. This means medical staff are encouraged to report any problem or side effect to the Therapeutic Goods Administration. A black triangle warning is generally used for new medicines or medicines that are being used in a new way.

    Who will be eligible?

    To be eligible for a prescription, a patient will need to have been diagnosed with treatment-resistant depression. In practice, this means they will have unsuccessfully tried at least two other antidepressant drugs first.

    Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration approved Spravato for use in Australia in 2021, meaning it was available but not subsidised. Since then, the sponsoring company, Janssen-Cilag (an Australian subsidiary of the multinational Johnson & Johnson), applied to have it added to the PBS four times.

    In December 2024, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee recommended a PBS listing.

    The new PBS listing, capping the price of a single treatment at $31.60, is a significant price drop. In 2023, single doses of branded Spravato were reported to cost anywhere between $500 and $900.

    However, patients may still have to pay hundreds of dollars for appointments at private clinics where Spravato can be administered. Public places are available but limited.

    Spravato may be suitable for you if you’ve tried different antidepressants without success. If it is suitable for you, then your doctor can discuss the next steps.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Nial Wheate in the past has received funding from the ACT Cancer Council, Tenovus Scotland, Medical Research Scotland, Scottish Crucible, and the Scottish Universities Life Sciences Alliance. He is a fellow of the Royal Australian Chemical Institute. Nial is the chief scientific officer of Vaihea Skincare LLC, a director of SetDose Pty Ltd (a medical device company) and was previously a Standards Australia panel member for sunscreen agents. He is a member of the Haleon Australia Pty Ltd Pain Advisory Board. Nial regularly consults to industry on issues to do with medicine risk assessments, manufacturing, design and testing.

    Shoohb Alassadi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A ketamine nasal spray will be subsidised for treatment-resistant depression. Here’s what you need to know about Spravato – https://theconversation.com/a-ketamine-nasal-spray-will-be-subsidised-for-treatment-resistant-depression-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-spravato-255403

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Peter Dutton calling the ABC and the Guardian ‘hate media’ rings alarm bells for democracy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne

    In front of a crowd of party faithful last weekend, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton referred to the ABC, Guardian Australia and other news platforms as “hate media”. The language was extreme, the inference being these outlets were not simply doing their jobs, but attacking him and his side of politics because of ideological bias.

    Speaking at a Liberal Party campaign rally in the Melbourne western suburb of Melton, Dutton said:

    Forget about what you have been told by the ABC, The Guardian and the other hate media. Listen to what you hear [at] doors. Listen to what people say on the pre-polling. Know in your hearts that we are a better future for our country.

    Melton is in the Labor-held seat of Hawke, which the Liberals believe they can win.

    Dutton provided no evidence to support his accusation, for the good reason that there has been nothing in the ABC’s or Guardian Australia’s coverage of Dutton that could remotely justify it.

    By a process of elimination, the “other hate media” to which he referred can only be The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, given the News Corporation mastheads have been unflagging in their support for him throughout the campaign.

    What has been common to the campaign coverage by the ABC, Guardian Australia, The Age and the SMH has been close scrutiny of both sides and both leaders.

    The three newspapers in particular have put renewed resources into independently fact-checking claims made by both Dutton and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and have caught out both men telling falsehoods.

    The broadcast news media on the whole have played it straight, except of course for Sky News after dark, which has been as relentlessly pro-Coalition as their News Corp newspaper stablemates.

    Beyond these professional mass media platforms, there have been clearly partisan social media influencers working on both sides, as well as a range of podcasters, but none of these has been guilty of hate speech towards Dutton or anyone else.

    The inescapable conclusion is that Dutton equates scrutiny of him by journalists with hate speech.

    This is where his attitude becomes dangerous to democracy. It comes straight from US President Donald Trump’s playbook, where the professional mass media are “fake news” and the “enemy of the people”.

    It is designed to play not just on people’s longstanding distrust of the news media in general – though not of the ABC – but on some voters’ sense of grievance at the way governments have treated them.

    This worked for Trump in the United States, but it became obvious early in the campaign that any association with Trumpism was a strong political negative in Australia, particularly in the atmosphere of alarm generated by his tariff war.

    Dutton then took pains to distance himself from Trumpism, and at the Liberal launch in Western Australia his face was a picture of alarm when Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, whom he had appointed to the Trumpian-sounding post of shadow minister for government efficiency, used the slogan “Make Australia Great Again”.

    But it is typical of his incoherent campaign that at the start of the last week he should be echoing the Trumpian view of the media in such extreme terms, creating even more instability. In an ABC interview, his shadow minister for finance, Jane Hume, refused to support him, saying “that wouldn’t be a phrase I would use”.

    It also raises legitimate questions about how Dutton would treat the media should he become prime minister. For example, if a media platform refused to obey his wishes, or provide him with coverage of which he approved, would its representatives be excluded from prime ministerial access?

    Not long ago, such a proposition would have been inconceivable, but Trump banned the Associated Press (AP) from presidential access because it would not obey his instruction to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. A federal judge later found the ban violated the First Amendment, and ordered AP’s access to be restored.

    It is very improbable Dutton would even try to impose his will on the commercial media in Australia, especially the newspapers.

    In fact, Guardian Australia has turned his remark into a fundraising opportunity. It emailed subscribers with the subject line “A note from the ‘hate media’,” comparing Dutton’s language to that of Trump, and asking for financial support to keep holding figures like Dutton to account.

    But his potential to punish the publicly funded ABC is another matter.

    From statements he has made during the campaign, it seems certain the ABC would be in for more funding cuts and an investigation into its operations of the kind Trump has launched into America’s National Public Radio.



    Read more:
    What would – and should – happen to the ABC under the next federal government?

    Coalition prime ministers going back to John Howard have had a hostile relationship with the ABC. Howard stacked the ABC board, and the panel that nominates its members, with ideological mates.

    In the eight years from 2014 to 2022, under the Coalition governments of Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, $526 million was cut from the ABC’s budget.

    During that time, there was also a series of inquiries into the ABC, set up to satisfy politicians with a beef against the ABC, notably Pauline Hanson.

    The day after Dutton’s “hate media” statement, the ABC’s 4 Corners program revealed he failed for two years to disclose he was the beneficiary of a family trust that operated lucrative childcare businesses when he was a cabinet minister.

    This is unlikely to improve his view of the national broadcaster. He may even see it as more hate. In fact, it is just good journalism.

    Denis Muller and Nicole Chvastek will discuss this further on their Truth, Lies and Media podcast on Wednesday April 30.

    Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Peter Dutton calling the ABC and the Guardian ‘hate media’ rings alarm bells for democracy – https://theconversation.com/peter-dutton-calling-the-abc-and-the-guardian-hate-media-rings-alarm-bells-for-democracy-255412

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PodTalk.live ushers in new ‘indie’ information and debate era

    PodTalk.live

    After a successful beta-launch this month, PodTalk.live has now called for people to register as foundation members — it’s free to join the post and podcast social platform.

    The foundation membership soft-launch is a great opportunity for founders to help shape a brand new, vibrant, algorithm-free, info discussion and debate social platform.

    “PodTalk.live has been put to test by selected individuals and we’re pleased to report that it has performed fabulously,” said the the platform developer Selwyn Manning.

    Manning is founder and managing director of the company that custom-developed PodTalk.live — Multimedia Investments Ltd.

    PodTalk.live . . . a new era. Image: PodTalk screenshot APR

    MIL is based in Aotearoa New Zealand, where PodTalk.live was developed and is served from.

    And now, PodTalk.live has emerged from its beta stage and is ready for foundation members to shape the next phase of its development.

    An alternative platform
    PodTalk.live was designed to be an alternative platform to other social media platforms.

    PodTalk has all the functions that most social media platforms have but has placed the user-experience at the centre of its backend design and engineering.

    PodTalk.live has been custom-designed, created and is served from New Zealand.

    “We ourselves became annoyed at how social media giants use algorithms to drive what content their users see and experience,” Manning said.

    “And, we also were appalled at how some social media companies trade user data, and were unresponsive to user-concerns.

    “So we decided to create a platform that focuses on ‘discussion and debate’ communities, and we have engineered PodTalk to ensure the content that users see is what they choose — rather than some obscure algorithm making that decision for them.

    “PodTalk.live is independent from other social media platforms, and at best will become an alternative choice for people who seek a community where they are the centre of a platform’s core purpose.

    Sign-up invitation
    ““And today, we invite people to sign up now and become foundation members of this new and ethically-based social community platform,” Manning said.

    What PodTalk.live provides includes:

    • user profiles with full interactivities with other users and friends;
    • user created groups, posts, video, images, polls, and file sharing;
    • private and secure one-on-one (and group) messages;
    • availability of all the above for entry users with a free membership;
    • premium membership for podcasters and event publishers requiring easy to use podcast publication and syndication services; and next-level community engagement tools that users have all on the one platform.

    Manning said PodTalk.live was founded on the belief that for social, political and economical progress to occur people needed to discuss issues in a safe environment and embark on robust debate.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Plans to stockpile critical minerals will help Australia weather global uncertainty – and encourage smaller miners

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohan Yellishetty, Professor, Co-Founder, Critical Minerals Consortium, and Australia-India Critical Minerals Research Hub, Monash University

    RHJPhtotos/Shutterstock

    The world needs huge quantities of critical minerals to make batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines, mobile phones, computers and advanced weaponry.

    Many of these minerals lie under Australian soil. Australia is able to produce 9 out of 10 mineral elements required to produce lithium-ion batteries, such as lithium, nickel and cobalt. It also has the highest total reserves of battery minerals.

    But at a time of major geopolitical upheaval, critical minerals are also contested. China controls many critical mineral supply chains, allowing it to dominate clean energy technologies. The ongoing United States–China trade war has intensified competition for access to critical minerals.

    It’s against this backdrop that Labor has proposed a A$1.2 billion strategic reserve of critical minerals. It’s a timely and welcome step in the right direction.

    Why is this reserve needed?

    Critical minerals are vital to the industries of the future. But supply can be hard to secure and disruptions can be devastating.

    After US President Donald Trump jacked up tariffs on China, Beijing responded by clamping down on critical mineral exports. Almost 80% of US weaponry depends on Chinese critical minerals.

    China now dominates mining and refining of many critical minerals. Beijing controls 90% of the world’s rare earth refining, 80% of lithium refining and 68% of nickel refining. The US and other nations are belatedly trying to catch up.

    Mining has long been a major Australian industry, particularly iron ore and coal. But Australia has huge reserves of many critical minerals, producing the largest volume of lithium ore in the world as well as stocks of cobalt, manganese, rutile and others. Australian miners Lynas and Australian Strategic Materials are two of the few rare-earth mining companies not owned by China.

    That’s where this strategic reserve comes in. If it comes to fruition, the federal government would buy agreed volumes of critical minerals from commercial projects, or establish an option to purchase them at a given price. It would then keep stockpiles of these key minerals to prevent market manipulation by China and stabilise prices by releasing or holding stocks strategically.

    The reserve would give Canberra more leverage in negotiating with trading partners and enable a rapid response to supply disruptions. Government backing for the industry would boost onshore processing, scale up domestic production and encourage more high-wage, high-skill jobs in regional areas.

    Which minerals will be stockpiled? That’s yet to be determined. The list of ‘critical minerals’ can vary between countries, and a mineral critical to one nation may not be to another.

    Australia lists 31 critical minerals while Japan lists 35, the US lists 50 and the European Union 34. Australia’s list is unique in that it reflects global demand, not domestic dependency.

    The minerals most commonly included in these lists include cobalt, gallium, indium, niobium, tantalum, platinum group minerals and rare earth elements.

    Why is the government intervening?

    In 2023, major miners produced close to a billion tonnes of iron ore in Western Australia.

    By contrast, critical mineral volumes are small. For instance, only 610 tonnes of gallium were mined in 2023. Major miners such as Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale don’t tend to bother.

    Critical mineral markets are often opaque and highly concentrated. The barrier to entry is high. Globally, the market for the 31 critical minerals on Australia’s list is valued at around A$344 billion – about the size of the global aluminium market.

    That leaves it to mid-tier and small miners to bridge the gap between rapidly growing demand and supply. The problem is, raising capital is often very difficult. The price of critical minerals can fluctuate wildly. The price of lithium and nickel have fallen sharply over the last two years due to market oversupply.

    The strategic reserve would make it easier for these miners by providing access to capital through loans from Export Finance Australia and private investors, reducing financial uncertainty and cost overruns and acting as a buffer against market volatility.

    For instance, mid-tier miner Illuka Resources is building Australia’s first rare earths refinery in Western Australia. The project already has significant government support, but it is likely to need more.

    Despite Australia’s significant mineral resources, it faces an uphill battle to gain market share. China’s dominance has been driven by low production costs; low environmental, social and goverance standards; and a competitive labour market. But intensifying geopolitical competition between China and the US means Australian minerals would likely be sought by the US.

    How can Australia best play its hand?

    In volatile market conditions, cheaper operations have a significant advantage, while new mines face an uphill battle.

    Australia’s critical minerals hub framework could help offset capital costs. Smaller miners could form cooperatives to share infrastructure and manage logistics, processing and access to international markets. Sharing infrastructure such as roads, rail, energy and ports would reduce the investment risk.

    There are other challenges to overcome, such as the long lead times of 10 years or more to go from discovery to production, limited access to low-cost renewable energy and a shortage of technical and scientific capabilities.

    Labor’s strategic reserve would help. But it won’t be enough to make Australia into a critical mineral giant. The government should consider:

    • building more regional processing hubs with shared infrastructure and microgrids
    • offering royalty exemptions, tax incentives and energy subsidies early on
    • giving incentives to retrofit facilities to produce critical minerals found alongside main ores, such as cobalt found alongside copper and antimony with gold
    • encouraging models where rare earths are concentrated in Australia and processed overseas in partner countries
    • establishing Centres of Excellence on critical minerals and creating shared libraries of intellectual property to support research, avoid duplication and optimise resource allocation.

    Overall, the proposed reserve is an excellent idea. Government intervention will be necessary to absorb and mitigate risks from price fluctuations and geopolitical shocks.

    Mohan Yellishetty receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Geoscience Australia, Defense Science Institute, Boral Limited, AGL Loy Yang, Indian Ministry of Education. He is affiliated with AusIMM as its fellow, Honorary Academic Fellow, Australia India Institute, Foreign Fellow, Indian Geophysical Union, and affiliated with Indian Institute of Technology (Dharwad, Mumbai, Hyderabad). David Whittle contributed to the research base and data for this article.

    – ref. Plans to stockpile critical minerals will help Australia weather global uncertainty – and encourage smaller miners – https://theconversation.com/plans-to-stockpile-critical-minerals-will-help-australia-weather-global-uncertainty-and-encourage-smaller-miners-255320

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Young women are among those who care most about the cost of living. It could be bad for the major parties

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Intifar Chowdhury, Lecturer in Government, Flinders University

    Unsplash

    As was widely predicted, the cost of living has dominated the federal election campaign. Soaring rents, grocery bills and energy prices have squeezed household budgets.

    But these pressures aren’t new. In 2022, voter frustration over living costs helped Labor oust the Coalition.

    With economic pressures persisting, will history repeat?

    Analysis of cost-of-living trends and voting patterns in the last election reveals the voters most motivated by hip-pocket concerns: young women.

    What was the situation in 2022?

    In the 2022 Australian Election Study – a nationally representative post-election survey – about 23.3% of respondents (577 out of 2,478) identified cost of living as the most important issue shaping their vote.

    Younger Australians were the most concerned about the issue. Among the age groups, 38.9% of those aged 18–30 prioritised it, compared with 30.4% aged 31–45, 28.5% aged 46–60, and just 15.4% among those aged 61–90.

    The generational pattern was clear: the younger you were, the more likely you were to vote on cost-of-living concerns.

    Gender also played a role. A slightly higher proportion of women (25.1%) than men (21.1%) rated cost of living as their top issue.

    But the age-gender breakdown reveals more: among cost-of-living voters aged 18–45, women made up roughly 70%.

    In contrast, men outnumbered women among older cost-of-living voters (aged 60 and over).

    These trends suggest the cost of living is especially salient for younger women — a key electoral demographic to watch. Evidence shows this cohort is almost twice as likely as young men to be undecided voters.

    If we look at housing, cost-of-living concerns were most prevalent among renters, with 38.5% of public housing tenants and 32.3% of private renters citing it as their top issue, compared to just 16.4% of those who own their home outright.

    Those paying off a mortgage (27.3%) and people in alternative living arrangements such as boarding or living at home (35.6%) also reported elevated concern, highlighting the strong link between housing insecurity and financial stress.

    Looking at household incomes, it’s no surprise low-income households were overrepresented among cost-of-living voters.

    But concern wasn’t limited to them. Middle-income households, including many earning six-figure incomes, also featured prominently, reflecting how rising rents and mortgage repayments are squeezing even those once considered financially secure.

    A generation defining crisis

    Cost-of-living pressures are widespread, but financial vulnerability heightens the risk of poverty, which already affects more than three million Australians.

    As shown above, young people and young families are at the deep end of the crisis.
    For many, this is a generation-defining crisis, reshaping life expectations.

    In 2017, 62.2% of Australians aged 18–24 saw home ownership as highly important. By 2024, that dropped to 49.5%. A similar decline occurred among 25–34-year-olds.



    Read more:
    Every generation thinks they had it the toughest, but for Gen Z, they’re probably right

    Those in the poorest suburbs or the poorest household are the least likely to value home ownership. This is potentially a sign they feel permanently locked out, deepening inequality.

    As renting becomes more common, and rent prices skyrocket, young people are increasingly struggling to secure affordable rent.

    It’s no surprise Gen Z is more financially anxious than any other generation. The mental health toll of financial stress is stark, contributing to the high prevalence of mental health disorders among this age group.

    With a sizeable youth electorate this time around, financially struggling young voters could be the power brokers of the election. So who might they vote for?

    The politics of living costs

    In the last election, 61.7% of voters concerned about the cost of living backed a left-of-centre party, while 38.3% voted for the right. Despite the Coalition’s historic advantage on economic issues, they faced an incumbent disadvantage among cost-of-living voters.

    In an Election Monitoring Survey conducted in October 2024, only 23.7% of Australians were living comfortably on their present income, while 46.4% were coping, and 29.9% were struggling.

    Those facing financial hardship were more dissatisfied with the country’s direction, less confident in the government, and more likely to dislike both major party leaders.

    Unsurprisingly, October 2024 saw a decline in trust in the federal government, with 15.7% of Australians reporting no trust at all, up from 8.3% in May 2022. Those who did trust the government remained around 32%.

    This shows cost-of-living voters – much like young and female voters – are likely to explore alternatives beyond the major parties, continuing the 2022 trend.

    Both major parties have seen a steady decline in support over the past two decades, with less than 70% of the primary vote between them in 2022.

    This time around, Labor can afford to lose only two seats before facing minority government. Peter Dutton, on the other hand, faces a tougher task, needing nearly 20 seats for a majority.

    With increasing dislike for the major parties among financially struggling voters, there’s a real chance of a hung parliament, where neither party secures the 76 seats needed to govern outright, making negotiations with minor parties and independents crucial.

    Policy battleground

    The major parties know how important the rising cost of living is to voters. A slew of policies has already been announced, from cheaper doctors visits, to lower cost medicines and power bill rebates. On all these fronts, the Coalition has agreed to match Labor’s proposals, ensuring a tightly contested debate.

    Notably, Labor’s proposal to top up stage three income tax cuts won’t kick in until mid-next year, but will cost the government $17 billion over four years.

    Meanwhile, the Coalition’s pledge to halve the excise on fuel duty for a year, will cost $6 billion in lost tax revenue in a year.

    But whether it will be enough to stop cost-of-living voters siding with a minor party or independent remains to be seen.

    Intifar Chowdhury does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Young women are among those who care most about the cost of living. It could be bad for the major parties – https://theconversation.com/young-women-are-among-those-who-care-most-about-the-cost-of-living-it-could-be-bad-for-the-major-parties-254988

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What political ads are Australians seeing online? Astroturfing, fake grassroots groups, and outright falsehoods

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Angus, Professor of Digital Communication, Director of QUT Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology

    In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, political advertising is seemingly everywhere.

    We’ve been mapping the often invisible world of digital political advertising across Facebook, Instagram and TikTok.

    We’ve done this thanks to a panel of ordinary Australians who agreed to download an ad tracking app developed through the Australian Internet Observatory.

    We’re also tracking larger trends in political ad spending, message type and tone, and reach via the PoliDashboard tool. This open source tool aggregates transparency data from Meta (including Facebook and Instagram) which we use to identify patterns and items of concern.

    While the major parties are spending heavily and are highly visible in the feeds of our participants, it is the prevalence of third-party political advertising that is most striking. We’ve observed a notable trend: for every ad from a registered political party, there is roughly one ad from a third-party entity.

    Astroturfing and the illusion of grassroots support

    One of the most concerning trends we’re seeing is a rise in astroturfing. This refers to masking the sponsors of a message to make it appear as though it originates from ordinary citizens or grassroots organisations.

    Astroturfing ads do often adhere to the formal disclosure requirements set out by the Australian Electoral Commission. However, these disclosures don’t meaningfully inform the public on who is behind these misleading ads.

    Authorisation typically only includes the name and address of an intermediary. This may be a deliberately opaque shell entity set up just in time for an election.

    A key example seen by participants in our study involves the pro-gas advocacy group Australians for Natural Gas.

    It presents itself as a grassroots movement, but an ABC investigation revealed this group is working with Freshwater Strategy – the Coalition’s internal pollster. Emails obtained by the ABC show Freshwater Strategy is “helping orchestrate a campaign to boost public support for the gas industry ahead of the federal election”.

    Other examples we’ve encountered in our monitoring include groups with benign-sounding names like Mums for Nuclear and Australians for Prosperity. These labels and the ads they are running suggest grassroots concern, but they obscure the deeper agendas behind them.

    In the case of Australians for Prosperity, an ABC analysis revealed backing from wealthy donors, former conservative MPs and coal interests.

    The battle over energy

    Nowhere is this more evident than in messaging around energy policy, especially nuclear power and gas.

    In recent months, both major parties and a swathe of third-party advertisers have run targeted online campaigns focused on the costs and benefits of different energy futures. These ads play to deeply felt concerns about cost of living, action on climate change, and national sovereignty.

    Yet many of these messages, particularly those that promote gas and nuclear, come from organisations with opaque funding and undeclared political affiliations or connections. Voters may see a slick Facebook ad or a sponsored TikTok explainer without any idea who paid for it, or why.

    And with no obligation to be truthful, much of this content may be deeply misleading. It muddies public understanding at a critical moment for climate action.

    Truth not required

    Truth in political advertising isn’t legally required in all of Australia. While businesses can’t mislead consumers under consumer law, political parties and third-party campaigners are exempt from those same standards.

    This means misleading or outright false claims – about opponents, policies or the state of the economy – can be repeated and amplified without consequence, provided they’re framed as political opinion.

    Despite calls for reform from politicians, experts and civil society groups, federal legislation continues to lag behind community expectations.

    South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory do have truth in political advertising laws, but there is still no national standard.

    In the digital advertising environment, where ads are fast, fleeting, and often tailored to individuals, the absence of such independent scrutiny allows misinformation to flourish unchecked.

    Most people are seeing very little – or so it seems

    Paradoxically, our data shows the majority of participants are seeing very few political ads. Of the total ads seen, less than 2% pertained to political topics or the election specifically.

    This is partly a result of how the advertising products offered by platforms like Meta and TikTok allow ads to be targeted to specific demographics, locations or interests. This means even two people in the same household may have entirely different ad experiences.

    But it’s also a reminder social media ads are just the tip of the iceberg. Much political persuasion online happens outside paid ad campaigns – via influencer content, YouTube recommendations, algorithmic amplification, mainstream media coverage and more.

    Because platforms and publishers aren’t required to share this broader content with researchers or the public, we can’t easily track it – although we are trying.

    We need meaningful observability

    If democracy is to thrive in a digital age, we need to be able to independently observe online political communication, including advertising.

    Existing measures like campaign finance disclosures and transparency tools provided by platforms will never be enough. They don’t include user experiences or track patterns across populations and over time. This inevitably means some advertising activity flies under the radar.

    We lack robust tools to understand and analyse our current fragmented information landscape.

    Where platforms don’t provide meaningful data access to researchers and the public, tools like the Ad Observatory and PoliDashboard offer valuable glimpses into a fragmented information landscape, while remaining incomplete.

    However, tools on their own are not enough. We also need to be willing to call out and act when politicians mislead the public.

    Acknowlegement: The Australian Ad Observatory is a team effort. The authors wish to acknowledge the contribution of Jean Burgess, Nicholas Carah, Alfie Chadwick, Kyle Herbertson, Tina Kang, Khanh Luong, Abdul Karim Obeid, Lina Przhedetsky, and Dan Tran.

    Daniel Angus receives funding from Australian Research Council through Linkage Project ‘Young Australians and the Promotion of Alcohol on Social Media’. He is a Chief Investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society.

    Christine Parker receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society.

    Giselle Newton received funding from the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education for the project ‘How alcohol and gambling companies target people most at risk with marketing for addictive products on Facebook’.

    Mark Andrejevic receives funding from the Australian Research Council through the Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making and Society and through the Discovery Program.

    Kate Clark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What political ads are Australians seeing online? Astroturfing, fake grassroots groups, and outright falsehoods – https://theconversation.com/what-political-ads-are-australians-seeing-online-astroturfing-fake-grassroots-groups-and-outright-falsehoods-255225

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How much do election promises cost? And why haven’t we seen the costings yet?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra

    With the May 3 federal election less than a week away, voters still have little reliable information on the costs of Labor or Coalition policies.

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said Labor’s policy costings will be released imminently. At the 2022 election, the costings were not released for nearly two months after polling day.

    Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley last week told Sky News the Coalition costings will be “released in the lead up to election day and will be able to be fully interrogated”.

    This is now too late for the voters who have already cast their ballots. We have seen a record number of pre-poll votes this election, with more than 2.3 million as of Saturday. This means a sizeable percentage of the electorate has voted without knowing what their votes will cost.

    Voting without all the facts

    Whichever side wins, taxpayers eventually pay to implement policies. So knowing at least in broad terms the costs of the policies would be helpful.

    The Coalition has probably had many of its policies costed by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office. This process thorough and impartial.

    Importantly, the Parliamentary Budget Office costs policies over ten years. This allows the full costs of policies to be understood better. Some policies such as large infrastructure take many years before the full impact on the budget is felt.

    Labor has already published the costs of many of its policies in the March 25 federal budget. This only covered the forward estimates, three years into the future, but is reliable for most policies. But we still need the costings for policies announced post-budget.

    The true picture?

    Even when we see what the parties release, we can have no confidence their lists will be accurate and complete. Parties may omit costings that might attract criticism.

    They may also present costings prepared by consultants rather than the Parliamentary Budget Office. You may recall controversy late last year over private modelling of the Coalition’s plans for nuclear power.

    Unfortunately we have to wait until after the election for a comprehensive and independent set of costings.

    The Parliamentary Budget Office does not publish its full list of costings (in the election commitments report) until well after the election. This is either 30 days from the end of the caretaker period or seven days before the new parliament first sits, whichever comes later.

    The election commitments report has some accountability value in relation to the party that forms government but does not help inform voters. It is a mystery why anyone would be interested in the costs of policies of the losing side. But they still must be published, according to electoral law.

    The report must include the major parties, although minor parties and independents can also be included in the report if they wish.

    Are there other approaches?

    By contrast, in New South Wales the state Parliamentary Budget Office publishes a complete set of costings five days before the election. Policies announced after this date miss out but these rarely affect the budget bottom line.

    Although, as occurs federally, many voters cast their ballots in advance, at least NSW’s approach gives most voters a chance to see the costs. This encourages the major parties to compete to produce a fiscally responsible total.

    The NSW approach is self-policing. Each major party studies the statements and if the other side omits something – large or small – they rapidly and loudly complain. Parties therefore try to make their policy lists as accurate as possible.

    Both sides are obliged by law to provide the budget office with all the proposed policies of the leader’s party.

    Toting up all the costs

    Federally, the budget office takes on the time-consuming job of tracking down all the policy announcements to cost and include in its post-election report.

    The differences arise from the different legislation that applies to each PBO.

    NSW has arguably an easier job because it costs policies only for the premier and leader of the opposition. The federal budget office costs for all members of parliament.

    The federal system requires policies submitted during the caretaker period, and their costings, must be published “as soon as practicable”. But major parties are highly unlikely to submit a policy only to have it and its costing released at a time not of its choosing.

    The requirement is likely motivated by transparency, but clashes with political reality. In NSW costings remain confidential until the leader advises the budget office the policy has been announced. This gives parties a way to have policies costed with a low risk of their premature release.

    DIY assessments

    Federally, there are other ways to estimate the costs of policies. The budget office has a Build your Own Budget Tool, and a tool for modelling alternative
    income tax proposals (SMART), both available online.

    These provide a fair approximation and are often used by journalists trying to get behind political announcements.

    The OECD lists 35 independent fiscal bodies in 29 OECD countries responsible for assessing election costings. Some are tiny, with just a few analysts. Some are
    huge and influential, like the US Congressional Budget Office. Few have the same focus on costing election policies that applies in Australia.

    Costs are a big deal here. Both parties have run advertisements attacking the other side on the question of whether their policies are affordable.

    On major policies such as the Coalition plans for nuclear power there are massive differences between cost estimates put forward by each side. Such differences could be resolved by an independent and impartial costing. This is why Australian voters deserve to see such costings as soon as possible.

    Stephen Bartos was NSW Parliamentary Budget Officer for the past three NSW general elections. He is now a professor at the University of Canberra.

    – ref. How much do election promises cost? And why haven’t we seen the costings yet? – https://theconversation.com/how-much-do-election-promises-cost-and-why-havent-we-seen-the-costings-yet-255104

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for April 28, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 28, 2025.

    Reefs in the ‘middle’ light zone along NZ’s coast are biodiversity hotspots – many are home to protected species
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James J Bell, Professor of Marine Biology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington James Bell, CC BY-SA The latest update on the state of New Zealand’s environment paints a concerning outlook for marine environments, especially amid the increasing push to use the marine estate for

    Pokies line the coffers of governments and venues – but there are ways to tame this gambling gorilla
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charles Livingstone, Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University Recently, much public attention has been given to the way online wagering and its incessant promotion has infiltrated sport and our TV screens. Despite a 2023 parliamentary inquiry that recommended new restrictions on online

    Vancouver SUV attack exposes crowd management falldowns and casts a pall on Canada’s election
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, Canada A car attack at a Filipino street festival in Vancouver just two days before Canada’s federal election has killed at least 11 people and injured many

    Is Canada heading down a path that has caused the collapse of mighty civilizations in the past?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Hoyer, Senior Researcher, Historian and Complexity Scientist, University of Toronto Canada is, by nearly any measure, a large, advanced, prosperous nation. A founding member of the G7, Canada is one of the world’s most “advanced economies,” ranking fourth in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s

    Rwanda’s genocide: why remembering needs to be free of politics – lessons from survivors
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Lakin, Lecturer, Clark University Memory and politics are inherently intertwined and can never be fully separated in post-atrocity and post-genocidal contexts. They are also dynamic and ever-changing. The interplay between memory and politics is, therefore, prone to manipulation, exaggeration or misuse by clever actors to meet

    In talking with Tehran, Trump is reversing course on Iran – could a new nuclear deal be next?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeffrey Fields, Professor of the Practice of International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences A mural on the outer walls of the former US embassy in Tehran depicts two men in negotiation. Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Negotiators from Iran and the United States are set

    ‘I were but little happy, if I could say how much’: Shakespeare’s insights on happiness have held up for more than 400 years
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cora Fox, Associate Professor of English and Health Humanities, Arizona State University Joanna Vanderham as Desdemona and Hugh Quarshie as the title character in a Royal Shakespeare Company production of ‘Othello.’ Robbie Jack/Corbis via Getty Images What is “happiness” – and who gets to be happy? Since

    What will the UK Supreme Court gender ruling mean in practice? A legal expert explains
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Maine, Senior Lecturer in Law, City St George’s, University of London jeep2499/Shutterstock The Supreme Court’s decision in For Women Scotland Ltd v The Scottish Ministers will mean changes in how trans people in the UK access services and single-sex spaces. In the highly anticipated judgment announced

    What are ‘penjamins’? Disguised cannabis vapes are gaining popularity among young people
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Chung, PhD Candidate, National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland Stenko Vlad/Shutterstock E-cigarettes or vapes were originally designed to deliver nicotine in a smokeless form. But in recent years, vapes have been used to deliver other psychoactive substances, including cannabis concentrates and

    Used EV batteries could power vehicles, houses or even towns – if their manufacturers share vital data
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daryoush Habibi, Professor and Head, Centre for Green and Smart Energy Systems, Edith Cowan University EV batteries are made of hundreds of smaller cells. IM Imagery/Shutterstock Around the world, more and more electric vehicles are hitting the road. Last year, more than 17 million battery-electric and hybrid

    Climate change and the housing crisis are a dangerous mix. So which party is grappling with both?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ehsan Noroozinejad, Senior Researcher and Sustainable Future Lead, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University Australia is running out of affordable, safe places to live. Rents and mortgages are climbing faster than wages, and young people fear they may never own a home. At the same time,

    Why film and TV creators will still risk it all for the perfect long take shot
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristian Ramsden, PhD Candidate, University of Adelaide Apple TV In the second episode of Apple TV’s The Studio (2025–) – a sharp satirical take on contemporary Hollywood – newly-appointed studio head Matt Remick (Seth Rogen) visits the set of one of his company’s film productions. He finds

    Is there a best way to peel a boiled egg? A food scientist explains
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paulomi (Polly) Burey, Professor in Food Science, University of Southern Queensland We’ve all been there – trying to peel a boiled egg, but mangling it beyond all recognition as the hard shell stubbornly sticks to the egg white. Worse, the egg ends up covered in chewy bits

    Australia once had ‘immigration amnesties’ to grant legal status to undocumented people. Could we again?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Dehm, Senior Lecturer, International Migration and Refugee Law, University of Technology Sydney The year is 1972. The Whitlam Labor government has just been swept into power and major changes to Australia’s immigration system are underway. Many people remember this time for the formal end of the

    Independents may build on Australia’s history of hung parliaments, if they can survive the campaign blues
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Visitor, School of History, Australian National University Major parties used to easily dismiss the rare politician who stood alone in parliament. These MPs could be written off as isolated idealists, and the press could condescend to them as noble, naïve and unlikely to succeed. In

    Peter Dutton: a Liberal leader seeking to surf on the wave of outer suburbia
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra In searching for the “real” Peter Dutton, it is possible to end up frustrated because you have looked too hard. Politically, Dutton is not complicated. There is a consistent line in his beliefs through his career. Perhaps the shortest cut

    Albanese has been a ‘proficient and lucky general’. But if he wins a second term, we are right to demand more
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Strangio, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Monash University Barring a rogue result, this Saturday Anthony Albanese will achieve what no major party leader has done since John Howard’s prime-ministerial era – win consecutive elections. Admittedly, in those two decades he is only the second of the six

    Peter Dutton declares Welcome to Country ceremonies are ‘overdone’ in heated final leaders’ debate
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andy Marks, Vice-President, Public Affairs and Partnerships, Western Sydney University Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton have had their fourth and final leaders’ debate of the campaign. The skirmish, hosted by 7News in Sydney, was moderated by 7’s Political Editor Mark Riley. Cost of

    Election Diary: a cost-of-living election where neither leader can tell you the price of eggs
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The fourth election debate was the most idiosyncratic of the four head-to-head contests between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Apart from all the usual topics, the pair was charged with producing one-word responses to pictures of

    Trump’s war on the media: 10 numbers from US President’s first 100 days
    Reporters Without Borders Donald Trump campaigned for the White House by unleashing a nearly endless barrage of insults against journalists and news outlets. He repeatedly threatened to weaponise the federal government against media professionals whom he considers his enemies. In his first 100 days in office, President Trump has already shown that he was not bluffing.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Reefs in the ‘middle’ light zone along NZ’s coast are biodiversity hotspots – many are home to protected species

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James J Bell, Professor of Marine Biology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    James Bell, CC BY-SA

    The latest update on the state of New Zealand’s environment paints a concerning outlook for marine environments, especially amid the increasing push to use the marine estate for economic gain.

    But many shallow coastal ecosystems remain largely unexplored. As our latest fieldwork shows, many of these areas are hotspots for protected species, but are largely unprotected from human impacts.

    Gardens of the red calcified stylasterid hydrocoral off the coast of Doubtful Sound, Fiordland.

    Ecosystems in the ‘middle’ light zone

    Subtidal rocky reefs have been the focus of scientific research for centuries. During the past eight decades, with the advent of SCUBA diving, they have been studied even more intensively.

    However, rocky reefs extend much deeper than most SCUBA divers can typically reach, into what is known as the mesophotic or “middle” light zone.

    While seaweeds dominate in the well-lit shallow waters, there is limited light to sustain photosynthesis in the mesophotic zone below around 30 metres. The decline in seaweed creates more space for animals, which leads to the development of communities containing species not found in the shallows.

    Deep-water stony corals at around 100 metres off the coast of Northland.

    Because these ecosystems are no longer affected by surface wave action, they are often dominated by large, fragile three-dimensional species.

    We still know very little about the ecology of the species that live in mesophotic ecosystems. Many are likely to be slow growing and long-lived, with some living for hundreds or possibly thousands of years.

    Research is ongoing and empirical data still sparse, but observations show many fish are associated with these mesophotic communities. We eat some of them, or they are important within the ocean food web.

    Diverse ecosystems and protected species

    We shared some of the first high-resolution videos of New Zealand’s mesophotic ecosystems in 2022. Back then, we thought these deep-reef communities were dominated by sponges.

    However, we have since deployed a Boxfish remotely operated vehicle more than 200 times around New Zealand and found sponges are not always the most dominant organism.

    In fact, mesophotic ecosystems along New Zealand’s coast are very diverse, with regional variation in the types of communities.

    Our team found sea squirts dominated communities off Rakiura Stewart Island, anemone stands in the Wellington region, red coral beds along the Fiordland coast and coral “reefs” in Northland.

    Asicidian or sea squirt beds at 130 metres off the coast of Rakiura Stewart Island.

    Importantly, many of these reefs support species protected under the Wildlife Act.

    During our most recent trip to Doubtless Bay in Northland, we explored more than 20 locations. At many sites we encountered protected coral species. The term coral is broadly defined in the Wildlife Act – it includes groups such as black corals (order Antipatharia), gorgonian corals (Gorgonacea), stony corals (Scleractinia) and hydrocorals (family Stylasteridae).

    Protected black coral and seafans at around 90 metres offshore at Doubtless Bay, Northland.

    Under the Wildlife Act, it is illegal to deliberately collect or damage these species. If they are brought to the surface accidentally (in fishing gear or by anchors, for example), they must be returned to the sea immediately.

    Many of these corals are typically considered deep-sea species, but they are commonly found in New Zealand’s mesophotic ecosystems. Northland’s mesophotic communities have examples from all these groups of corals, as well as other fragile ecosystems dominated by glass sponges.

    While glass sponges are not protected, they are thought to be very slow growing, with some species living for thousands of years.

    Glass sponge gardens at around 100 metres off the coast of Northland.

    Current and future impacts

    Many mesophotic organisms grow slowly and rely on food carried in the water. This makes them particularly sensitive to activities that disrupt the seafloor, such as fishing and anchoring, and to the effect of higher sediment loads.

    Sediment can either smother or clog mesophotic organisms such as corals and sponges. Many of these species show some tolerance to sediment, but prolonged exposure or very high levels can kill them off.

    Many of the mesophotic ecosystems we have explored show clear evidence of human impacts, including lost recreational fishing gear and anchor lines.

    The government plans to maximise the economic potential of the marine estate and much of this development is focused on coastal areas. Any activities that generate coastal sediment plumes are of particular concern.

    Seabed sand mining operations already occur at some sites around the coast of New Zealand. More have been proposed, potentially generating sediment plumes that could reach these mesophotic communities.

    Protected black coral in a sponge garden at around 80 metres at the Poor Knights marine reserve in Northland.

    A fundamental step for effective management of biodiversity is to understand its distribution. Our work over the past five years has characterised a wide range of mesophotic ecosystems, but there are still large areas of the New Zealand coastline that have not been explored. They are likely to contain undescribed communities.

    As many regional councils around New Zealand are working through revisions to coastal policy plans, these deeper rocky reefs need to be fully included to protect the species they support.

    Professor James J Bell receives funding from the Department of Conservation, Environment Southland, the George Mason Charitable Trust, The Royal Society of New Zealand, and the Greater Wellington Regional Council.

    – ref. Reefs in the ‘middle’ light zone along NZ’s coast are biodiversity hotspots – many are home to protected species – https://theconversation.com/reefs-in-the-middle-light-zone-along-nzs-coast-are-biodiversity-hotspots-many-are-home-to-protected-species-254597

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pokies line the coffers of governments and venues – but there are ways to tame this gambling gorilla

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charles Livingstone, Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University

    Recently, much public attention has been given to the way online wagering and its incessant promotion has infiltrated sport and our TV screens.

    Despite a 2023 parliamentary inquiry that recommended new restrictions on online (especially sport) gambling advertising, the federal government neglected to implement any of the 31 recommendations.



    Read more:
    Will the government’s online gambling advertising legislation ever eventuate? Don’t bet on it

    This seems to have resulted from a furious and well resourced campaign by gambling’s ecosystem: wagering companies, broadcasters, sporting leagues, and others who currently drink from the fountain of gambling revenue.

    Naturally, this issue garnered a great deal of attention, as it should.

    But there’s another even bigger gambling gorilla that has steadily rebuilt its profits post-pandemic. You’ll probably find some at a hotel or social club near you.

    This is, of course, pokies: Australia’s version of slot machines.

    Australia’s major source of gambling problems

    Australians lost A$15.8 billion on pokies in 2022–23, over half of that ($8.1 billion) in New South Wales. That’s an increase of 7.6% from 2018–19 (before pandemic restrictions closed many venues or restricted operations).

    Wagering (sports and race betting) losses grew a hefty 45% over the same period, to around $8.4 billion. Even so, it remains way behind the pokies as Australia’s biggest source of gambling losses and problems.

    Casino losses dropped by 35.5%. Casinos are also poke venues, but also offer other forms of gambling. Pokies in casinos are counted as “casino” gambling in national gambling statistics, while pokies in clubs and pubs continue to be counted separately.

    A recent study found pokies responsible for between 52% and 57% of gambling problems in Australia. Wagering was estimated at 20%.

    Recent growth may have altered these a little but pokies are still responsible for half of Australia’s gambling losses.

    The gambling industry is fond of pointing out only a modest proportion of the population have serious gambling problems. That’s true, according to most prevalence studies.

    But what also has to be remembered is, most people never use pokies. In 2024, the latest population study for NSW found only 14.3% of adults used pokies at all.

    But around 18.5% of pokie users are either high or moderate risk gamblers: 35% of gamblers who use pokies at least once a month are classified as either high or moderate risk gamblers.

    And in 2010 the Productivity Commission estimated 41% of the money lost on pokies came from the most seriously addicted, with another 20% coming from those with more moderate issues. Overall, well over half of the losses.

    It’s little wonder pokie operators resist reforms.

    Why are pokies so profitable?

    The first and obvious answer to this is that there are a lot of them: they are widely accessible across Australia (apart from Western Australia, where they’re only in a single casino).

    NSW alone has about 87,500. Queensland has about half that number, and Victoria about 26,000.

    All of these are located in pubs or clubs, and in NSW they collect (on average) $93,000 per machine per year.

    Second, they’re overwhelmingly concentrated in areas where people are doing it tough. Stress and strain are common where there are pokies.

    Some people start to use them thinking they might alleviate financial woes. They don’t, of course. But they do provide an escape from the vicissitudes of daily life.

    Once sampled, that can become addictive.

    People who use pokies a lot call this escape from reality “the zone” – once you’re there, nothing matters, except staying there.

    The zone is also known as “immersion”, or “loss of executive control”: people using pokies find it very difficult, if not impossible, to stop. Once the money’s gone, reality crashes in.

    Pokies are also extremely addictive. Along with online casino games (which includes virtual pokies or slot machines), they are generally regarded as the most addictive and harmful gambling products.

    They have a host of features engineered into them, including “losses disguised as wins”, “near misses” and many others.

    They are engineered with 10 million or more possible outcomes and it is not possible for anyone to predict what outcome will come next.

    Crucially, the house always wins. In a machine where the “return to player ratio” is set at 87% (a common, completely lawful setting), the machine would retain 13% of all wagers.

    Unfortunately, few pokie users understand these characteristics.

    Can’t we rein in the pokies?

    So why do politicians resist reform?

    One reason for this is the pokie revenue that flows into government coffers.

    In 2022–23, state governments received a total of more than $9 billion in gambling taxes – 7.8% of all state tax revenue. Of this, $5.3 billion came from pokies. NSW alone got $2.23 billion from pokies, Victoria $1.3 billion, and Queensland $1.1 billion.

    The venues, of course, receive a great deal more. One of the consequences of all that money flowing into the coffers of pubs and clubs is political access and influence.

    We can, however, tame the pokies if we want to.

    Various solutions are available, including pre-commitment, generally believed to be the most likely candidate.

    This involves pokie users being required to set a limit prior to using the machines, which is now common in many countries in Europe, and has been proposed (but delayed or scuttled) in Australia for Tasmania, Victoria, and New South Wales.

    More broadly however, this has been strongly resisted by the gambling ecosystem, including parties such as ClubsNSW and the Tasmanian Hospitality Association. Their influence appears profound.

    Change is needed, urgently

    Australia’s reputation as the world’s biggest gambling losers is unenviable: we lose $32 billion on gambling products every year.

    Clearly, prohibition of gambling ads, and the termination of sports sponsorships that tie football, cricket and other major sports to gambling is needed urgently.

    But if we really want to reduce gambling problems and their extraordinary catalogue of harm, reining in the pokies is a must.

    That may take some serious effort.

    Charles Livingstone has received funding from the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, the (former) Victorian Gambling Research Panel, and the South Australian Independent Gambling Authority (the funds for which were derived from hypothecation of gambling tax revenue to research purposes), from the Australian and New Zealand School of Government and the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education, and from non-government organisations for research into multiple aspects of poker machine gambling, including regulatory reform, existing harm minimisation practices, and technical characteristics of gambling forms. He has received travel and co-operation grants from the Alberta Problem Gambling Research Institute, the Finnish Institute for Public Health, the Finnish Alcohol Research Foundation, the Ontario Problem Gambling Research Committee, the Turkish Red Crescent Society, and the Problem Gambling Foundation of New Zealand. He was a Chief Investigator on an Australian Research Council funded project researching mechanisms of influence on government by the tobacco, alcohol and gambling industries. He has undertaken consultancy research for local governments and non-government organisations in Australia and the UK seeking to restrict or reduce the concentration of poker machines and gambling impacts, and was a member of the Australian government’s Ministerial Expert Advisory Group on Gambling in 2010-11. He is a member of the Lancet Public Health Commission into gambling, and of the World Health Organisation expert group on gambling and gambling harm. He made a submission to and appeared before the HoR Standing Committee on Social Policy and Legal Affairs inquiry into online gambling and its impacts on those experiencing gambling harm.

    – ref. Pokies line the coffers of governments and venues – but there are ways to tame this gambling gorilla – https://theconversation.com/pokies-line-the-coffers-of-governments-and-venues-but-there-are-ways-to-tame-this-gambling-gorilla-252038

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Vancouver SUV attack exposes crowd management falldowns and casts a pall on Canada’s election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, Canada

    A car attack at a Filipino street festival in Vancouver just two days before Canada’s federal election has killed at least 11 people and injured many more.

    The carnage along a street lined with food trucks took place shortly after one of the men vying to become Canada’s prime minister — New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh — attended the event. A shell-shocked Singh observed a moment of silence in Penticton, B.C., during another campaign stop the next day.

    A 30-year-old Vancouver resident has been arrested, but the motivation behind the attack is unknown.

    Vancouver police say the suspect has mental health issues and was known to police prior to the attack. Police also told a news conference there was no indication there was a need for extra policing at the festival, deeming it to have a “low threat level.”

    What goes into making that calculation, and is a public event ever truly low-risk?

    Vancouver police hold a news conference on the SUV attack. (CTV News)

    Difficulties of crowd management

    The Vancouver SUV attack is now classified as a crowd-related or mass gathering type of disaster. There have been cases of public vehicle-ramming attacks in Canada in the past, in particular the 2018 Toronto van attack that left 10 people dead.

    While it’s not yet known whether the Vancouver attack was targeted, there were clearly weaknesses in crowd management for such a large gathering. These types of attacks have been on the increase over the past decade and are now considered one of the prime threats to mass gatherings in public spaces and streets.

    Unfortunately, many mass gathering events do not allocate either sufficient resources or time for crowd management procedures, particularly those related to risk and emergency management.

    Organizing mass gathering events in public spaces should factor in different threats, including the potential for car ramming, and implement effective mitigation and preparedness measures.

    ‘Soft targets’

    Many public spaces where these events take place are vulnerable to car attacks. Evidence shows that mass gatherings are soft targets, meaning they’re easily accessible to large numbers of people and have limited security, protective and warning measures in place. Extreme precautions are needed to protect the public from such attacks so that they don’t become mass casualty events.

    Those in attendance should be aware that public spaces generally lack physical barriers, or the proper distribution of them, to resist car or vehicle attacks.

    While public awareness programs exist for other hazards such as flooding, earthquakes and extreme weather events, it’s now clear that such awareness and education are needed for mass public gatherings too.

    Police should be aware that relying on limited surveillance may not be sufficient to identify such threats at the scene. Vehicle access and traffic control should be in place throughout such events. Lack of warning systems to quickly inform the crowd about an ongoing attack further increases the impacts of vehicular attacks.

    Much of the focus on these types of events has been on the motivations of the attackers. Since a considerable number of vehicle-ramming attacks have been attributed to terrorism, communities or events with the perception of lower terrorism threats may not pay close enough attention to this type of threat.



    Read more:
    Toronto’s most recent car attack was a targeted crime, not a mass attack

    Impact on the election?

    Canadians aren’t likely to get many more details about the Vancouver attack until after voting day on Monday. Could the tragedy have an impact on the outcome of the federal election?

    Past and recent studies have drawn different conclusions about the impact of disasters on election results.

    According to what’s known as retrospective voting theory, voters judge governments on how they manage disasters, particularly highly publicized, tragic events, when casting their ballots. Voters can evaluate governments based on their handling of the disaster and the amount of effort they have put into minimizing risk.

    Some studies have found that local governments were rewarded after disaster events, including Calgary after the 2013 floods, several Italian municipal governments after earthquakes, local government officials in Brazil amid municipal drought declarations and civic elections in Japan after earthquakes, tsunamis and floods.



    Read more:
    Why Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies

    Voters can and do punish or reward governments and elected politicians based on the effects of recent disasters on them and governments’ responses to them.

    But given how soon the Canadian election is being held after the disaster occurred — and the record number of voters who have already cast their ballots in advance polls — this tragedy isn’t likely to have a substantial impact.

    Hopefully, however, it will have an influence on how organizers, police and other authorities manage public crowds and events at a time when vehicle-ramming attacks are becoming a recurrent threat. Those elected this election should prioritize efforts to ensure communities can have safer mass gathering events.

    Ali Asgary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vancouver SUV attack exposes crowd management falldowns and casts a pall on Canada’s election – https://theconversation.com/vancouver-suv-attack-exposes-crowd-management-falldowns-and-casts-a-pall-on-canadas-election-255395

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What will the UK Supreme Court gender ruling mean in practice? A legal expert explains

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Maine, Senior Lecturer in Law, City St George’s, University of London

    jeep2499/Shutterstock

    The Supreme Court’s decision in For Women Scotland Ltd v The Scottish Ministers will mean changes in how trans people in the UK access services and single-sex spaces.

    In the highly anticipated judgment announced April 17, the court ruled that the definition of “sex”, “man” and “woman” in the Equality Act refers to “biological sex”. It found that this does not include those who hold a gender recognition certificate (trans people who have had their chosen gender legally recognised). In simple terms, “women” does not include transgender women.

    It is important to note that the court’s remit was focused on interpretation of existing laws, not creating policy. The court affirmed that trans people should not be discriminated against, nor did they intend to provide a definition of sex or gender outside of the application of the Equality Act.

    The prime minister has said he welcomes the “real clarity” brought by the ruling. But while it may bring some legal clarity, questions remain about the practical implementation. The judgment also raises new questions about the operation of the Gender Recognition Act, and what it now means to hold a gender recognition certificate.

    What was the court case?

    The gender-critical feminist group For Women Scotland challenged the Scottish government’s guidance on the operation of the Equality Act in relation to a Scottish law that sets targets for increasing the proportion of women on public boards.

    The definition of a “woman” for the purposes of that law included trans women who had undergone, or were proposing to undergo, gender reassignment.

    The issue that the court had to address was whether a person with a full gender recognition certificate (GRC) which recognises that their gender is female, is a “woman” for the purposes of the Equality Act 2010. The act gives protection to people who are at risk of unlawful discrimination.

    The court’s decision was that the meaning of “sex” was biological and so references in the act to “women” and “men” did not, therefore, apply to trans women or trans men who hold GRCs.

    What has changed with this ruling?

    Prior to the ruling, there were contested views as to whether trans people could access certain single-sex spaces – some of the most contentious being prisons, bathrooms and domestic abuse shelters.

    The ruling does not require services to exclude trans people from all single-sex spaces. It does, however, clarify that if a service operates a single-sex space, for example a gym changing room, then exclusion is based on biological sex and not legal sex. Neither the court nor the government has said how “biological sex” would be defined or proven.

    A service provider may operate a single-sex space on the basis of privacy or safety of users. To base this on biological sex must be a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim – for example, the safety of women in a group for abuse survivors. This means that service providers may still operate trans-inclusive policies, but they may open themselves to legal challenge.



    Read more:
    What does the UK Supreme Court’s gender ruling mean for trans men?

    What does this mean for the Gender Recognition Act?

    The Gender Recognition Act 2004 introduced gender recognition certificates (GRCs), which certify that a person’s legal gender is different from their assigned gender at birth. A trans person can apply for a GRC in order to change their gender on their birth certificate. For legal purposes, they are then recognised as their acquired gender.

    The ruling does not strike down or affect the operation of the Gender Recognition Act. But it does give the impression that the GRA – and holding a GRC – is now less effective.

    The ruling clarifies that a trans woman who has a GRC and is recognised legally in her acquired gender can be excluded from single-sex spaces on the ground of biological sex, as would a trans woman without a GRC. Before the ruling, a trans person with a GRC would have been able to access many single-sex spaces and services that match the gender on their GRC.

    In order to be granted a GRC, a person must show that they have lived in their acquired gender for at least two years and that they intend to live in that gender until death. Their application must be approved by two doctors, but – in what was a world-first at the time it was introduced – does not require any medical transition.

    The Supreme Court states that trans people (with or without a GRC) will still be protected from discrimination. Sex and gender reassignment are both protected characteristics under the Equality Act. This means that trans people may still rely on the law to protect them from direct or indirect discrimination levelled at them on the basis of being trans, or because of their perceived sex.

    The court uses the example that a trans woman applying for a job being denied that job on the basis of being trans would still be entitled to sue for discrimination.

    How will single-sex services operate?

    The key question now, both for service providers and trans people, is what spaces trans people will be able to use. It is not the Supreme Court’s job to issue guidance on this – and the judgment is notably silent on the practical implementation of the ruling.

    Service providers may choose to offer unisex spaces, for example gender neutral bathrooms. British Transport Police have already confirmed that strip searches of those arrested on the network would be conducted based on biological sex, and other services will likely follow.

    It is up to service providers, employers and healthcare providers to interpret the ruling and decide how to apply it. The government has said that further guidance will be issued by the Equality and Human Rights Commission. But how the ruling is implemented in practice, and what it means for other laws like the Gender Recognition Act, will likely be debated for some time.

    Alexander Maine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What will the UK Supreme Court gender ruling mean in practice? A legal expert explains – https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-uk-supreme-court-gender-ruling-mean-in-practice-a-legal-expert-explains-255043

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I were but little happy, if I could say how much’: Shakespeare’s insights on happiness have held up for more than 400 years

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cora Fox, Associate Professor of English and Health Humanities, Arizona State University

    Joanna Vanderham as Desdemona and Hugh Quarshie as the title character in a Royal Shakespeare Company production of ‘Othello.’ Robbie Jack/Corbis via Getty Images

    What is “happiness” – and who gets to be happy?

    Since 2012, the World Happiness Report has measured and compared data from 167 countries. The United States currently ranks 24th, between the U.K. and Belize – its lowest position since the report was first issued. But the 2025 edition – released on March 20, the United Nations’ annual “International Day of Happiness” – starts off not with numbers, but with Shakespeare.

    “In this year’s issue, we focus on the impact of caring and sharing on people’s happiness,” the authors explain. “Like ‘mercy’ in Shakespeare’s ‘Merchant of Venice,’ caring is ‘twice-blessed’ – it blesses those who give and those who receive.”

    Shakespeare’s plays offer many reflections on happiness itself. They are a record of how people in early modern England experienced and thought about joy and satisfaction, and they offer a complex look at just how happiness, like mercy, lives in relationships and the caring exchanges between people.

    Contrary to how we might think about happiness in our everyday lives, it is more than the surge of positive feelings after a great meal, or a workout, or even a great date. The experience of emotions is grounded in both the body and the mind, influenced by human physiology and culture in ways that change depending on time and place. What makes a person happy, therefore, depends on who that person is, as well as where and when they belong – or don’t belong.

    Happiness has a history. I study emotions and early modern literature, so I spend a lot of my time thinking about what Shakespeare has to say about what makes people happy, in his own time and in our own. And also, of course, what makes people unhappy.

    From fortune to joy

    Shakespeare’s birthplace in Stratford-upon-Avon, England.
    Tony Hisgett/Flickr via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    “Happiness” derives from the Old Norse word “hap,” which meant “fortune” or “luck,” as historians Phil Withington and Darrin McMahon explain. This earlier sense is found throughout Shakespeare’s works. Today, it survives in the modern word “happenstance” and the expression that something is a “happy accident.”

    But in modern English usage, “happy” as “fortunate” has been almost entirely replaced by a notion of happiness as “joy,” or the more long-term sense of life satisfaction called “well-being.” The term “well-being,” in fact, was introduced into English from the Italian “benessere” around the time of Shakespeare’s birth.

    The word and the concept of happiness were transforming during Shakespeare’s lifetime, and his use of the word in his plays mingles both senses: “fortunate” and “joyful.” That transitional ambiguity emphasizes happiness’ origins in ideas about luck and fate, and it reminds readers and playgoers that happiness is a contingent, fragile thing – something not just individuals, but societies need to carefully cultivate and support.

    For instance, early in “Othello,” the Venetian senator Brabantio describes his daughter Desdemona as “tender, fair, and happy / So opposite to marriage that she shunned / The wealthy, curled darlings of our nation.” Before she elopes with Othello she is “happy” in the sense of “fortunate,” due to her privileged position on the marriage market.

    Later in the same play, though, Othello reunites with his new wife in Cyprus and describes his feelings of joy using this same term:

    …If it were now to die,
    ‘Twere now to be most happy, for I fear
    My soul hath her content so absolute
    That not another comfort like to this
    Succeeds in unknown fate.

    Desdemona responds,

    The heavens forbid
    But that our loves and comforts should increase
    Even as our days do grow!

    They both understand “happy” to mean not just lucky, but “content” and “comfortable,” a more modern understanding. But they also recognize that their comforts depend on “the heavens,” and that happiness is enabled by being fortunate.

    “Othello” is a tragedy, so in the end, the couple will not prove “happy” in either sense. The foreign general is tricked into believing his young wife has been unfaithful. He murders her, then takes his own life.

    The seeds of jealousy are planted and expertly exploited by Othello’s subordinate, Iago, who catalyzes the racial prejudice and misogyny underlying Venetian values to enact his sinister and cruel revenge.

    James Earl Jones playing the title role and Jill Clayburgh as Desdemona in a 1971 production of ‘Othello.’
    Kathleen Ballard/Los Angeles Times/UCLA Library via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Happy insiders and outsiders

    “Othello” sheds light on happiness’s history – but also on its politics.

    While happiness is often upheld as a common good, it is also dependent on cultural forces that make it harder for some individuals to experience. Shared cultural fantasies about happiness tend to create what theorist Sara Ahmed calls “affect aliens”: individuals who, by nature of who they are and how they are treated, experience a disconnect between what their culture conditions them to think should make them happy and their disappointment or exclusion from those positive feelings. Othello, for example, rightly worries that he is somehow foreign to the domestic happiness Desdemona describes, excluded from the joy of Venetian marriage. It turns out he is right.

    Because Othello is foreign and Black and Desdemona is Venetian and white, their marriage does not conform to their society’s expectations for happiness, and that makes them vulnerable to Iago’s deceit.

    Similarly, “The Merchant of Venice” examines the potential for happiness to include or exclude, to build or break communities. Take the quote about mercy that opens the World Happiness Report.

    The phrase appears in a famous courtroom scene, as Portia attempts to persuade a Jewish lender, Shylock, to take pity on Antonio, a Christian man who cannot pay his debts. In their contract, Shylock has stipulated that if Antonio defaults on the loan, the fee will be a “pound of flesh.”

    “The quality of mercy is not strained,” Portia lectures him; it is “twice-blessed,” benefiting both giver and receiver.

    It’s a powerful attempt to save Antonio’s life. But it is also hypocritical: Those cultural norms of caring and mercy seem to apply only to other Christians in the play, and not the Jewish people living alongside them in Venice. In that same scene, Shylock reminds his audience that Antonio and the other Venetians in the room have spit on him and called him a dog. He famously asks why Jewish Venetians are not treated as equal human beings: “If you prick us, do we not bleed?”

    Actor Henry Irving as Shylock in a late 19th-century performance of ‘The Merchant of Venice.’
    Lock & Whitfield/Folger Shakespeare Library via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Shakespeare’s plays repeatedly make the point that the unjust distribution of rights and care among various social groups – Christians and Jews, men and women, citizens and foreigners – challenges the happy effects of benevolence.

    Those social factors are sometimes overlooked in cultures like the U.S., where contemporary notions of happiness are marketed by wellness gurus, influencers and cosmetic companies. Shakespeare’s plays reveal both how happiness is built through communities of care and how it can be weaponized to destroy individuals and the fabric of the community.

    There are obvious victims of prejudice and abuse in Shakespeare’s plays, but he does not just emphasize their individual tragedies. Instead, the plays record how certain values that promote inequality poison relationships that could otherwise support happy networks of family and friends.

    Systems of support

    Pretty much all objective research points to the fact that long-term happiness depends on community, connections and social support: having systems in place to weather what life throws at us.

    And according to both the World Happiness Report and Shakespeare, contentment isn’t just about the actual support you receive but your expectations about people’s willingness to help you. Societies with high levels of trust, like Finland and the Netherlands, tend to be happier – and to have more evenly distributed levels of happiness in their populations.

    Shakespeare’s plays offer blueprints for trust in happy communities. They also offer warnings about the costs of cultural fantasies about happiness that make it more possible for some, but not for all.

    Cora Fox has received funding from an NEH grant for activities not directly related to this research.

    – ref. ‘I were but little happy, if I could say how much’: Shakespeare’s insights on happiness have held up for more than 400 years – https://theconversation.com/i-were-but-little-happy-if-i-could-say-how-much-shakespeares-insights-on-happiness-have-held-up-for-more-than-400-years-198583

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –