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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-Evening Report: Students are neither left nor right brained: how some early childhood educators get this ‘neuromyth’ and others wrong

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate E. Williams, Professor of Education, University of the Sunshine Coast

    MalikNalik/ Shutterstock

    Many teachers and parents know neuroscience, the study of how the brain functions and develops, is important for children’s education.

    Brain development is recommended as part of teacher education in universities. Neuroscience is even mentioned in Australia’s “early years framework”, which guides early childhood programs.

    Previous research has shown there are misunderstandings about how neuroscience works (or “neuromyths”) among teachers both in Australia and overseas.

    Our new study shows there are also some widespread neuromyths among early childhood educators.

    What are the myths? And what does the evidence say?

    Our research

    We surveyed more than 520 Australian early childhood educators in 2022 to understand their neuroscience knowledge.

    We chose to study early childhood educators because there is a research gap in our understanding of those teaching and caring for younger children. The surveys were distributed online via multiple channels including email lists, social media and professional associations.

    About 74% of respondents worked in a long daycare or a preschool/kindergarten (educating children in the final years before formal school). About 63% had either a bachelors degree or postgraduate qualification.

    Our research surveyed more than 500 early childhood educators about their neuroscience knowledge.
    Poppy Pix/ Shutterstock

    Our findings

    We asked respondents whether various false statements were true, in order to assess their level of knowledge about neuroscience. The average correct score was 13.7 out of 27.

    Some myths presented in our study were widely, and correctly, understood to be false. For example, more than 90% of respondents correctly identified “when we sleep our brains shut down” and “mental capacity is solely hereditary and cannot be changed by the environment or experience” as untrue.

    But for other myths, most respondents were either unsure or believed the statement to be correct. For example:

    • only 7% of respondents correctly identified “teaching to different learning styles will improve learning” as false.

    • only 15% of respondents correctly identified “students are either left or right brained” as false.

    This suggests educators need more evidence-based neuroscience content as part of their professional education and development. While some neuromyths may seem harmless, others can have real implications for teaching decisions and student learning.

    What is the problem with these neuromyths?

    Myth 1: ‘teaching to different learning styles will improve learning’

    The idea of learning styles became popular in the 1970s. This argued students will show improved learning if they receive information in a very specific way. For example, “visual learners” need to see information to be able to learn, while “aural learners” need to hear it.

    This has been recognised as a myth since the mid-2000s, but the idea of learning styles still persists among educators.

    While people may have preferred ways of accessing information, there is no evidence learning suffers if information isn’t provided in this format. Research has also shown teachers’ ideas of a student’s learning style do not tend to match students’ self-reported preferences.

    So teaching decisions made on assumed student “learning styles” may be flawed in any case.

    There’s no evidence learning needs to be presented in a particular format for certain ‘types’ of learners.
    myboys.me/ Shutterstock

    Myth 2: ‘students are either left or right brained’

    Another enduring idea is we have personality traits that are either right-brained (intuitive and creative) or left-brained (analytical and logical)

    There is evidence some brain functions hang out a little more on one side of the brain than the other. For example, language is more on the left and attention is more on the right. However, there’s no evidence your personality or your aptitude comes particularly from the left or right brain hemisphere.

    The harm in this myth comes from students thinking they are “more left-brained than right” and teachers reinforcing this view. And from here, young people might think they should just stick to humanities or just stick to maths or science.

    This could rob a student of exploring multiple academic and career paths. Sure, some students will seem to really flourish as an artist, some as mathematicians and some as both. But we should not be labelling students, based on a neuromyth, potentially impacting self-confidence and their potential.

    Kate E. Williams receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Government Department of Education, and Australian Government Department of Social Services. She is affiliated with Play Matters Australia as Chair of the Board of Directors.

    – ref. Students are neither left nor right brained: how some early childhood educators get this ‘neuromyth’ and others wrong – https://theconversation.com/students-are-neither-left-nor-right-brained-how-some-early-childhood-educators-get-this-neuromyth-and-others-wrong-248888

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pagan loaves, Christian bread, a secular treat: a brief history of hot cross buns

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University

    Jasmine Waheed/Unsplash

    Hot cross buns aren’t just a sweet snack that appears around Easter. They carry centuries of storytelling in their dough. From ancient gods to modern supermarkets, these sticky spiced buns have crossed many borders and beliefs.

    Today, you can buy them in all kinds of flavours. But their story is far richer than chocolate chips and salted caramel.

    Ancient beginnings

    In some ancient cultures, bread was more than just food. It was a symbol of faith. Ancient Greeks baked small round loaves marked with crosses to honour their gods. According to some historians, these marks could represent the four seasons or four phases of the moon.

    Jewish people have also shared special bread during holy times like Passover, and scholars have debated whether these customs influenced early Christian bread traditions.

    Pagan Saxons worshipped a spring goddess named Eostre. They baked bread during springtime festivals to celebrate new life and longer days. The name “Eostre” is where we get the English word “Easter”. Over time, some of these springtime bread traditions blended with Christian customs.

    From Pagan loaves to Christian buns

    Early Christians started marking bread with a cross to show their devotion, and ate it throughout the year.

    They believed the cross kept away evil spirits and helped the dough rise. Over time, the Christian view of the bread marked with the cross shifted to focus on Jesus’ crucifixion and became associated with Easter.

    Baking bread as illustrated in the 16th century Book of Hours.
    Getty

    By the Middle Ages, many bakers only kept the cross on Good Friday bread.

    According to popular tales, one 12th-century English monk made spiced buns marked with a cross on Good Friday, because that day is the “Day of the Cross”.

    Monks often used spices to show the day was special. These spiced buns helped people remember the crucifixion of Christ and the spices used in his burial.

    In 1592, Queen Elizabeth I restricted the sale of spiced bread and buns, perhaps because of religious tensions. England had broken away from the Catholic Church, and new Church of England officials worried that “holy” buns looked too much like Catholic superstition. Others say it was an issue of bread prices and profits. Then again maybe they were just too special for just everyday.

    Under these laws, commercial bakers could only make spiced bread on Christmas, Easter and for funerals.

    Good Friday and magic buns

    By the 18th century, English street vendors sold “hot cross buns” on Good Friday. We even see an old rhyme about them in Poor Robin’s Almanac in 1733, which says:

    Good Friday comes this month, the old woman runs,
    With one a penny, two a penny, hot cross buns.

    Soon, people believed these Good Friday buns had magical powers. Some hung them from kitchen rafters, believing they would never go mouldy. They kept them for protection against evil or illness. If someone felt sick, they crumbled part of an old hot cross bun into water, hoping it would cure them. Others placed buns in their grain stores to keep pests away.

    These beliefs might sound odd today, but they were part of daily life for many.

    This hand-coloured etching from 1799 shows a woman selling hot cross buns in London.
    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    In Victorian England, people exchanged hot cross buns with friends on Good Friday and said, “Half for you and half for me, between us two good luck shall be”.

    Whatever ancient superstition the cross once warded off, today it’s the flavour roulette that keeps us coming back. Proof that tradition now serves taste, not fear.

    An enduring symbol

    Traditional buns contain dried fruit and spices like cinnamon and nutmeg, but many modern versions swap sultanas for chocolate chips or add flavours like salted caramel, orange – or even Vegemite and cheese. They have become a secular treat. Yet the crisscross pattern remains on top, hinting at the Christian origins.

    When you smell a fresh batch of these buns, you’re sharing an experience people enjoyed centuries ago. Ancient Egyptians, Greeks, Poles, Romans, Saxons, medieval monks and 18th-century street sellers all had their versions of spiced, crossed bread. Each group gave the buns its own meaning, from honouring gods to celebrating Christ’s crucifixion and resurrection.

    A woman giving hot cross buns to two children, in an illustration from 1899.
    British Library

    Eating hot cross buns at Easter also shows how traditions change with each generation. At first, they were hard to find outside Good Friday. Now, you might see them in shops just after New Year’s. They once symbolised pagan festivals, then moved into Christian rites, survived royal bans, and sailed through waves of superstition. Yet they remain a symbol of Easter in Australia and around the world.

    Darius von Guttner Sporzynski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pagan loaves, Christian bread, a secular treat: a brief history of hot cross buns – https://theconversation.com/pagan-loaves-christian-bread-a-secular-treat-a-brief-history-of-hot-cross-buns-246782

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Students are neither left or right brained: how some early childhood educators get this ‘neuromyth’ and others wrong

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate E. Williams, Professor of Education, University of the Sunshine Coast

    MalikNalik/ Shutterstock

    Many teachers and parents know neuroscience, the study of how the brain functions and develops, is important for children’s education.

    Brain development is recommended as part of teacher education in universities. Neuroscience is even mentioned in Australia’s “early years framework”, which guides early childhood programs.

    Previous research has shown there are misunderstandings about how neuroscience works (or “neuromyths”) among teachers both in Australia and overseas.

    Our new study shows there are also some widespread neuromyths among early childhood educators.

    What are the myths? And what does the evidence say?

    Our research

    We surveyed more than 520 Australian early childhood educators in 2022 to understand their neuroscience knowledge.

    We chose to study early childhood educators because there is a research gap in our understanding of those teaching and caring for younger children. The surveys were distributed online via multiple channels including email lists, social media and professional associations.

    About 74% of respondents worked in a long daycare or a preschool/kindergarten (educating children in the final years before formal school). About 63% had either a bachelors degree or postgraduate qualification.

    Our research surveyed more than 500 early childhood educators about their neuroscience knowledge.
    Poppy Pix/ Shutterstock

    Our findings

    We asked respondents whether various false statements were true, in order to assess their level of knowledge about neuroscience. The average correct score was 13.7 out of 27.

    Some myths presented in our study were widely, and correctly, understood to be false. For example, more than 90% of respondents correctly identified “when we sleep our brains shut down” and “mental capacity is solely hereditary and cannot be changed by the environment or experience” as untrue.

    But for other myths, most respondents were either unsure or believed the statement to be correct. For example:

    • only 7% of respondents correctly identified “teaching to different learning styles will improve learning” as false.

    • only 15% of respondents correctly identified “students are either left or right brained” as false.

    This suggests educators need more evidence-based neuroscience content as part of their professional education and development. While some neuromyths may seem harmless, others can have real implications for teaching decisions and student learning.

    What is the problem with these neuromyths?

    Myth 1: ‘teaching to different learning styles will improve learning’

    The idea of learning styles became popular in the 1970s. This argued students will show improved learning if they receive information in a very specific way. For example, “visual learners” need to see information to be able to learn, while “aural learners” need to hear it.

    This has been recognised as a myth since the mid-2000s, but the idea of learning styles still persists among educators.

    While people may have preferred ways of accessing information, there is no evidence learning suffers if information isn’t provided in this format. Research has also shown teachers’ ideas of a student’s learning style do not tend to match students’ self-reported preferences.

    So teaching decisions made on assumed student “learning styles” may be flawed in any case.

    There’s no evidence learning needs to be presented in a particular format for certain ‘types’ of learners.
    myboys.me/ Shutterstock

    Myth 2: ‘students are either left or right brained’

    Another enduring idea is we have personality traits that are either right-brained (intuitive and creative) or left-brained (analytical and logical)

    There is evidence some brain functions hang out a little more on one side of the brain than the other. For example, language is more on the left and attention is more on the right. However, there’s no evidence your personality or your aptitude comes particularly from the left or right brain hemisphere.

    The harm in this myth comes from students thinking they are “more left-brained than right” and teachers reinforcing this view. And from here, young people might think they should just stick to humanities or just stick to maths or science.

    This could rob a student of exploring multiple academic and career paths. Sure, some students will seem to really flourish as an artist, some as mathematicians and some as both. But we should not be labelling students, based on a neuromyth, potentially impacting self-confidence and their potential.

    Kate E. Williams receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Government Department of Education, and Australian Government Department of Social Services. She is affiliated with Play Matters Australia as Chair of the Board of Directors.

    – ref. Students are neither left or right brained: how some early childhood educators get this ‘neuromyth’ and others wrong – https://theconversation.com/students-are-neither-left-or-right-brained-how-some-early-childhood-educators-get-this-neuromyth-and-others-wrong-248888

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A century after its discovery, scientists capture first confirmed footage of a colossal squid in the deep

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kat Bolstad, Associate professor, Auckland University of Technology

    The colossal squid was first described in 1925 based on specimens from the stomach of a commercially hunted sperm whale. A century later, an international voyage captured the first confirmed video of this species in its natural habitat – a 30-centimetre juvenile, at a depth of 600 metres near the South Sandwich Islands.

    Colossal squid can grow up to seven metres and weigh as much as 500 kilograms, making them the heaviest invertebrate on the planet. But little is known about their life cycle.

    The footage of a young colossal squid in the water column was a serendipitous sighting, as many deep-sea squid observations are.

    It was seen during the live “divestream” feed of a remotely operated vehicle during the Schmidt Ocean Institute and Ocean Census partner expedition searching for new deep-sea species and habitats in the far south Atlantic, mostly focusing on the seafloor.

    Those tuned into the stream had the remarkable experience of seeing a live colossal squid in its deep-sea home, although its identity was not confirmed until the high-definition footage could be reviewed later.

    Predators such as whales and seabirds are still one of our best sources of information about the colossal squid (Mesonychoteuthis hamiltoni) because they are much better at finding it than we are.

    This partially explains why we have only just filmed this species in its natural habitat. Not only do these animals live in an enormous, dark and three-dimensional environment, they are also probably actively avoiding us.

    Most of our deep-sea exploration equipment is large, noisy and uses bright lights if we are trying to film animals. But the colossal squid can detect and avoid diving sperm whales, which probably produce a strong light signal as they swim down and disturb bioluminescent animals.

    The squid best able to avoid such predators have been passing on their genes for millions of years. This leaves us with a current population of visually acute, likely light-avoiding animals, well capable of detecting a light signal from many metres away.

    Delicate beauty of deep-sea animals

    The colossal squid is part of the “glass” squid family (Cranchiidae). Three known glass squid species are found in the Antarctic ocean, but it can be difficult to distinguish them on camera.

    Researchers from the organisation Kolossal, aiming to film the colossal squid, observed a similarly sized glass squid during their fourth Antarctic mission in 2023. But since the characteristic features needed to identify a colossal squid – hooks on the ends of the two long tentacles and in the middle of each of the eight shorter arms – weren’t clearly visible, its exact identity remains unconfirmed.

    In the Schmidt Ocean Institute footage, the mid-arm hooks are visible. And for this young individual, the resemblance to other glass squids is also clear. With age and size, colossal squid likely lose their transparent appearance and become much more of an anomaly within the family.

    While many will be amused by the idea of a “small colossal” squid, this footage showcases a beauty shared by many deep-sea animals, in contrast to the monster hype and “stuff of nightmares” click-bait titles we see all too often.

    This colossal squid looks like a delicate glass sculpture, with fins of such fine musculature they are barely visible. It has shining iridescent eyes and graceful arms fanned out from the head.

    At full size, the colossal squid may be a formidable predator, with its stout arms and array of sharp hooks, able to tackle two-metre-long toothfish. But in our first confirmed view of it at home in the deep sea, we can marvel at the elegance of this animal, thriving in an environment where humans require so much technology even to visit remotely.

    Stranger than science fiction

    Until recently, few people were able to take part in deep-sea exploration. But now, anyone with an internet connection can be “in the room” while we explore these habitats and observe animals for the first time.

    It’s hard to overstate the importance of the deep sea. It holds hundreds of thousands of undiscovered species, it is probably where life on Earth started, and it makes up 95% of the available living space on our planet.

    It has animals more splendid and strange than our most creative science fiction imaginings. This includes squids that start life looking like small light bulbs and then grow into true giants; colonies of individuals living together with each contributing to the group’s success; animals where males (often parasitic) are orders of magnitude smaller than females.

    This first confirmed sighting of a colossal squid inspires and reminds us how much we have left to learn.

    The expedition that captured the footage of the colossal squid was a collaboration between the Schmidt Ocean Institute, the Nippon Foundation-NEKTON Ocean Census, and GoSouth (a joint project between the University of Plymouth, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research and the British Antarctic Survey).

    Kat Bolstad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A century after its discovery, scientists capture first confirmed footage of a colossal squid in the deep – https://theconversation.com/a-century-after-its-discovery-scientists-capture-first-confirmed-footage-of-a-colossal-squid-in-the-deep-254584

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Allowing forests to regrow and regenerate is a great way to restore habitat

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Thomas, PhD candidate in Environmental Policy, The University of Queensland

    Cynthia A Jackson, Shutterstock

    Queensland is widely known as the land clearing capital of Australia. But what’s not so well known is many of the cleared trees can grow back naturally.

    The latest state government figures show regrowth across more than 7.6 million hectares in Queensland in 2020-21. These trees, though young, still provide valuable habitat for many threatened species – as long as they’re not bulldozed again.

    Our new research explored the benefits of regrowth for 30 threatened animal species in Queensland. We found regrown forests and woodlands provided valuable habitat and food for species after an average of 15 years. Some species were likely to benefit from trees as young as three years.

    This presents an opportunity for governments to support landowners and encourage them to retain more regrowing forest and woodland, especially where it can provide much-needed habitat for wildlife. But it’s a challenge because there is strong pressure to clear regrowth, largely to maintain pasture.

    Clearing of regrowth woodlands in Queensland.
    Martin Taylor

    When do young forests and woodlands become valuable habitat?

    We focused on threatened animal species that depend on forests and woodlands, and occur in regions with substantial regrowth.

    We wanted to find out which species use regrowth, and how old the trees need to be. But there’s not much survey data available on threatened species living in naturally regenerated forest and woodlands.

    To elicit this information we asked almost 50 experts to complete a detailed questionnaire and attend a workshop.

    We found 15 years was the average minimum age at which regrowth became useful to threatened species. But the full range was 3-68 years, depending on factors such as what a species eats, how it moves through the landscape and whether it needs tree hollows for shelter or breeding.

    For example, one threatened bird (the squatter pigeon) could use woodlands as young as three years old. Koalas benefited from regrowth as young as nine years old.

    Some species, such as the greater glider, need much older forests. This is because they require large tree hollows to shelter in during the day, and large trees to feed on and move between at night.

    So young forests shouldn’t be seen as an alternative to protecting old forests. We need both.

    The squatter pigeon could benefit from just three years of regrowth.
    Imogen Warren, Shutterstock

    Understanding the extent of habitat loss

    We also estimated the proportion of each species’ current habitat that comprises regrowth, using satellite data and publicly available data.

    For some species, we found regrowth made up almost a third of their potential habitat in Queensland. On average, it was 18%.

    However, nearly three-quarters of the habitat lost in Queensland since 2018 was regrowth forests and woodlands. So while the loss of older, “remnant” vegetation is more damaging per unit area, the regrowth habitat is being lost on a bigger scale.

    Our research suggests retaining more regrowth could be an easy and cost-effective way to help save threatened species.

    In contrast, tree planting is time-consuming and expensive. What’s more, only 10% of our native plants are readily available as seeds for sale. This, combined with more extreme weather such as prolonged droughts, often causes restoration projects to fail.

    Encouraging landholders to retain regrowth

    The fact that habitat can regrow naturally in parts of Queensland is a huge bonus. But farmers also need to maintain productivity, which can decrease if there’s too much regrowth.

    So, how do we help these landowners retain more regrowth?

    One way is to provide incentives. For example, government-funded biodiversity stewardship schemes provide payments to cover the costs of managing the vegetation – such as fencing off habitat and managing weeds – as well as compensation for loss of agricultural production. Targeting areas of regrowth with high habitat values could be a way for such schemes to benefit wildlife.

    Alternatively, market-based schemes allow landowners to generate biodiversity or carbon “credits” by keeping more trees on their property. Then, businesses (or governments) buy these credits. For example, some big emitters in Australia have to purchase carbon credits to “offset” their own emissions.

    However, Australia’s carbon market has been accused of issuing “low integrity” carbon credits. This means the carbon credits were paid for projects that may not have captured and stored the amount of carbon they were supposed to. To make sure these markets work, robust methods are needed – and until now, there hasn’t been one that worked to retain regrowth.

    Trees are good for the land, air and sea

    In February, the Queensland government released a method by which landholders could generate carbon credits by agreeing not to clear their regrowing woodlands and forests.

    The new carbon method provides a promising opportunity to allow landowners to diversify their farm income.

    In addition, tree cover brings direct, on-farm benefits such as more shade and shelter for livestock, natural pest control and better soil health.

    At a landscape level, greater tree cover can improve local climate regulation, reduce sediment run-off to the Great Barrier Reef and reduce Australia’s carbon emissions.

    Ideally, Australia’s carbon and biodiversity markets would work alongside sufficient government funding for nature recovery, which needs to increase to at least 1% (currently it’s around 0.1%).

    Meanwhile, our research has shown embracing natural regeneration potential in Queensland will have benefits for a range of threatened species too.

    We acknowledge our research coauthors, Jeremy Simmonds (2rog Consulting), Michelle Ward (Griffith University) and Teresa Eyre (Queensland Department of Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation).

    Hannah Thomas received an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship with a $10,000 top-up from WWF-Australia. She is an early-career leader with the Biodiversity Council.

    Martine Maron has received funding from various sources including the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Department of Environment and Science, and the federal government’s National Environmental Science Program, and has advised both state and federal government on conservation policy. She is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, a director of the Australian Wildlife Conservancy, a councillor with the Biodiversity Council, and leads the IUCN’s thematic group on Impact Mitigation and Ecological Compensation under the Commission on Ecosystem Management. She currently sits on the Protect and Enhance advisory panel to the NSW Natural Resources Commission.

    – ref. Allowing forests to regrow and regenerate is a great way to restore habitat – https://theconversation.com/allowing-forests-to-regrow-and-regenerate-is-a-great-way-to-restore-habitat-254325

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Safe seat syndrome? Why some hospitals get upgrades and others miss out

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anam Bilgrami, Senior Research Fellow, Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, Macquarie University

    On his campaign trail, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged A$200 million to upgrade St John of God Midland Public Hospital in Perth. He promised more beds and operating theatres, and a redesigned obstetrics and neonatal unit.

    It followed other recent election promises from the Labor government, including $120 million for new birthing facilities at Sydney’s planned Rouse Hill Hospital and $150 million to build a health centre in southern Adelaide.

    New and expanded health facilities are welcome in fast-growing communities. But are hospital funding pledges in election campaigns based on health-care or political needs?

    Does pork-barrelling drive health funding decisions?

    Labor and the Coalition have faced allegations of pork-barrelling this election campaign.

    Pork-barrelling means using public funds to target specific electorates to win votes, rather than allocating resources based on need. Four in five Australians consider pork-barrelling to be corrupt.

    Former New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian suggested pork-barrelling was “business as usual” in her government.

    It also seems to occur at the federal level. The Australian National Audit Office found a $1.25 billion Community Health and Hospitals Program implemented by the former Morrison government “fell short of ethical requirements” and deliberately breached Commonwealth grant guidelines.

    Of the 63 major projects funded, only two were rated “highly suitable” – the usual benchmark for shortlisting. In fact, most approved projects were picked by the government outside of the established expression of interest processes.

    Who funds and manages public hospitals?

    The National Health Reform Agreement makes states and territories responsible for managing public hospitals. States and territories contribute around 58% of hospital funding. They also oversee planning and infrastructure.

    Local hospital networks help plan and implement capital projects such as new hospitals and facility upgrades.

    Under the National Health Reform Agreement, the Commonwealth government also contributes public hospital funding through:

    • activity-based funding. This is tied to the number and type of patients treated

    • block funding for smaller regional and rural hospitals

    • public health funding for initiatives such as vaccination programs.

    The reform agreement outlines the Commonwealth’s responsibility for supporting public hospital services. But it doesn’t restrict the Commonwealth from making hospital infrastructure promises.

    The Commonwealth often pledges direct hospital funding through supplementary agreements or ad hoc initiatives. Earlier this year, it announced an additional one-off $1.7 billion payment to ease pressure on public hospitals.

    State planning vs federal politics: who decides?

    States use formal planning frameworks to plan and prioritise health infrastructure projects. NSW Health, for example, applies a structured Facility Planning Process for projects over $10 million. This considers local population needs, health and community benefits, costs and workforce capacity.

    These types of frameworks help ensure health capital investment decisions are transparent and evidence-based.

    What is less transparent is how the Commonwealth decides which specific hospitals to pledge money to, particularly during election campaigns.

    While some federal funding announcements may align with state priorities, picking one hospital over another comes with an “opportunity cost”. For every community that benefits from a new or upgraded hospital, another potentially higher-need community may miss out.

    To prevent Commonwealth funding decisions being swayed by political priorities, more transparent processes for setting priorities and making decisions are needed.

    What would a better system look like?

    The way funds are allocated to medicines listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) provides the federal government with an exemplary approach to good health-care investment decisions.

    The Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) provides independent advice to the Minister for Health on whether the government should allocate millions to new medicines. The PBAC uses rigorous, transparent processes to make listing recommendations based on patient need and cost-effectiveness.

    Federal government hospital infrastructure funding decisions should also follow open, competitive, merit-based processes.

    Prioritising evidence and having transparent decision-making guidelines would mean funding is more likely to be allocated based on the greatest population need rather than electoral considerations.

    Other ways to improve federal government hospital funding decisions may include:

    • incorporating nationally agreed principles for hospital capital funding in future National Health Reform Agreements

    • increasing transparency. This could be achieved through a national public register of hospital development proposals, ranked by urgency and need

    • strengthening safeguards on election-period pledges. This could improve disclosures and ensure hospital funding decisions align with independent needs assessments.

    More hospitals or better prevention?

    Former St Vincent’s Health CEO Toby Hall put it bluntly:

    If Australia is to make the most of its healthcare future, it will likely need fewer hospitals, not more.

    He pointed to Denmark, which cut its number of hospitals by 67% over 1999–2019. This was achieved by shifting as many services as possible from hospitals to other types of health care including primary care, health centres and outpatient clinics.

    While more hospitals in Australia may be inevitable as the population ages, health policy should also focus on keeping people out of hospital in the first place. That means investing in prevention, early intervention and technology to support care at home.

    Australia lags behind other wealthy nations in this space, ranking 20th out of 33 OECD countries in per capita spending on prevention. It ranks 27th when measured as a share of total health expenditure.

    Some local health districts are showing what’s possible. This includes using home monitoring to help people manage chronic conditions. These kinds of innovations can improve health and reduce pressure on hospital infrastructure.

    While new hospitals and wards make for compelling election promises, a better health system will come not just from “bricks and mortar”. It will come from smarter investments in prevention, early intervention and innovative care that keeps people healthier and out of hospital.

    Henry Cutler was a member of an Expert Advisory Panel where he received remuneration from the Department of Health and Aged Care for this role. Henry has also previously received funding from NT Health.

    Anam Bilgrami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Safe seat syndrome? Why some hospitals get upgrades and others miss out – https://theconversation.com/safe-seat-syndrome-why-some-hospitals-get-upgrades-and-others-miss-out-253750

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Half way through the campaign, how are the major party leaders faring?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Mills, Honorary Senior Lecturer, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Sydney

    More than two weeks in, we know one thing for sure. This time, the election campaign does matter.

    In decades past, when voters were more loyally rusted on to the major parties, news cycles more sedate, policy platforms fixed and “safe” seats truly safe, it was arguable that election outcomes were largely determined before the campaigns began.

    But in 2025, the campaign period has witnessed a dramatic shift in voting intentions, as measured by public opinion polls.

    Before the campaign, Labor trailed. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seemed flat-footed, burdened by a poor track record in the 2022 elections and the 2023 Voice referendum.

    But even as Cyclone Alfred blew itself out, parliament returned, and the budget was brought down, Labor’s poll numbers were improving. This trend continued through the first weeks of the campaign, such that Labor now seems the likely winner, either in minority or perhaps majority.

    Why? Election campaigns can reveal how leaders and their teams behave under pressure. They also require trust and lock-step coordination between the leader and the party’s team of campaign professionals.

    Unflashy incrementalism

    Albanese has performed solidly and been relentlessly on-message and on-brand. His campaign has rolled out a well-prepared procession of announcements on Medicare urgent care clinics, pharmaceuticals, childcare and TAFE, each with local funding attached.

    Albanese does not campaign with Hawke-like charisma, Keating-like oratory or Whitlam-like policy. His one truly visionary change commitment – the Voice – collapsed in a heap.

    Instead, as he has shown over the last two weeks, his true identity is as a (Chifley-like?) incrementalist. He boasts a strong grasp of systems – health, roads, renewables – and his campaign is all about fixing, improving and expanding those systems within practical fiscal constraints.

    His vision of the future is the present that just works better for more people.

    Fattening the policy pig

    By contrast, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton seemed ready to shoot the lights out, as an uncompromising conviction politician exploiting voter grievances about cost-of-living issues.

    But he wasted a large part of his first week recovering from an off-strategy indulgence about living in Kirribilli House (“we love the harbour”), and much of the second week explaining his backflip on public service working conditions.

    The first was a campaign blunder, pure and simple. But the second spoke to a deeper malaise within the Coalition about policy development. The Coalition appeared unprepared for the cut and thrust of the campaign.

    Combined with blithe me-tooing of Labor promises on health and roads, and incomplete announcements on cutting foreign student numbers and reserving natural gas for domestic use, the backflip suggested Coalition policy-making has become a bit random: a series of tactical choices, not a strategic plan for government.

    Contrary to long-standing Liberal Party campaign wisdom that “you can’t fatten a pig on market day”, this time the Liberals are trying to force-feed their policy pig en route to the market.

    Dutton has been much more effective pitching his fuel excise promise. The decision to eschew Labor’s budgeted tax cuts for an immediate reduction at the bowser was bold, instinctive and entirely consistent with the Coalition’s outer-metropolitan electoral strategy.

    It took until the second week, but the daily scenes of Dutton pumping petrol into cars – “and utes” as he always adds – is steadily reinforcing his message, however wearying it has become for the travelling press party.

    The comfort of incumbents

    The first leaders’ debate highlighted this difference. Both leaders remained poised and polished (especially creditable by Dutton given he learned of his father’s heart attack immediately beforehand).

    But Albanese simply had more to talk about, more first-term achievements and more commitments on his future shopping list. Dutton articulated grievances without providing many policy solutions.

    The contest on the economy was a draw: Dutton conjures up Albanese’s non-delivered pledge on power prices, while Albanese points to high employment and downward trends on inflation and interest rates.

    All this has played out against the backdrop of the Donald Trump tariff wars. Like previous mid-campaign crises – Tampa in 2001 and, for those with very long memories, the Kennedy assassination in 1963 – global uncertainty reinforces an Australian incumbent. Albanese’s measured response struck the right note.

    Dutton has repeatedly tried to insert himself into the tariff story – difficult for an opposition – but had to take risks to do so. His assertion that AUKUS and ANZUS should be somehow involved was left hanging once Liberal icon John Howard made clear he disagreed.

    With policy speeches delivered, and rival policies on housing finally released, the campaign is in its final week, interrupted by Easter, before early voting starts.

    The challenge for Albanese will be to maintain his momentum, in all his unflashy, incrementalist style. Labor is likely to ramp up its Dutton-Trump comparison. Dutton will need to put further flesh on the bones of putting Australia “back on track”.

    Stephen Mills was a staff member (1986-91) for Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke and since 2015 has volunteered for local Labor election campaigns.

    – ref. Half way through the campaign, how are the major party leaders faring? – https://theconversation.com/half-way-through-the-campaign-how-are-the-major-party-leaders-faring-254387

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: More bulk billing is fine. But what the health system really needs this election is genuine reform

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne

    Worrying signs are emerging about aspects of Australia’s health system, which will require the attention of whoever wins the May election.

    Despite big money pledged for Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), only limited attention has been paid by the major parties to key reform priorities.

    Any fresh reform agenda will be starting from a position of relative strength. Australia has a good health system that consistently ranks well compared with other wealthy nations, including on life expectancy, which is on the high side.

    Medicare remains the right infrastructure for funding primary care. But it is now more than 40 years old and needs to be updated and improved.

    Policy action is necessary on five fronts:

    • financial barriers to care
    • managing chronic conditions
    • mental health and dental care
    • public hospitals
    • workforce

    Priced out of care

    Despite Medicare’s promise of universality, around one in ten people defer seeing a doctor because of the cost.

    And despite the provision of subsidised drugs via the PBS, people also report missing out on filling prescriptions.

    Health Minister Mark Butler has said that Medicare is in its ‘worst shape’ in its 40 year history.
    Robyn Mackenzie/Shutterstock

    Labor has announced big-ticket measures to improve bulk-billing rates and cap PBS prices at A$25 a prescription. Given cost-of-living pressures are central to the election, it’s unsurprising the Coalition has pledged to match both policies.

    But, critically, neither party has announced anything to improve access to other medical specialists. The gap continues to grow between what specialists charge and what Medicare will cover. This means some patients are delaying or avoiding necessary care altogether.

    Complex chronic conditions

    The health system has not adapted to the rising prevalence of chronic disease in the Australian community. In 2023–24, 18% of the population saw three or more health professionals. But for 28% of those people, no single provider coordinated their care.

    Medicare was designed in a different age and needs to be refurbished to respond to this new reality of more patients who are suffering multiple health conditions.

    The Strengthening Medicare Task Force and the GP Incentives Review have proposed new systems to fund general practices to facilitate multidisciplinary care.

    Work needs to continue in this direction, regardless of who forms the next government.

    Forgotten care

    Dental and mental health are largely the forgotten sectors of health care. The number of people delaying access to oral health services because of affordability issues is more than twice the 10% who are missing out in other areas of the health system.

    Seeing a dentist is very much dependant on income. More than a quarter of Australians living in the most disadvantaged areas defer getting their teeth fixed because of the cost involved. Uncapped access to dental care, as proposed by the Greens, is not the answer. What is needed is a more sophisticated route towards universal access.

    By contrast, the pattern for mental health care is different, with people in both poor and rich areas facing access problems.

    The Coalition has promised to restore the maximum number of Medicare-subsidised fee-for-service mental health sessions to 20, despite it being regarded as an inequitable policy.

    More fee-for-service mental health care is not the right approach. By contrast, Labor is making a $1 billion commitment to expanding services which are free to the consumer. This includes Medicare Mental Health Services and headspace clinics, which generally employ salaried professionals.

    Both parties should support another initiative already underway: the universal program for people with low-to-moderate mental health needs, which doesn’t require either a referral or a co-payment. Labor announced the plan in the last budget, scheduled to start in January 2026.

    Inadequate hospital funding

    The Commonwealth share of public hospital funding has been trending down for the last few years, reversing the growth in its share over much of the last decade.

    A deal has been reached to lift the Commonwealth share of hospital funding to 45%.
    Rose Marinelli/Shutterstock

    Some states have fared worse than others, which means some hospitals have become squeezed and waiting times have blown out.

    In late 2023, National Cabinet reached a new funding deal which would lift the Commonwealth share to 45% by 2035–36.

    But subsequent negotiations have become bogged down in a quagmire of claims and counter-claims. The Albanese government has responded with an interim one-year funding down payment. But both major parties need to address this issue and commit to implementing the full 45% in the agreed time frame.

    No doctor in the house

    In 2014, the Abbott government abolished Health Workforce Australia, the national agency responsible for health workforce planning. Ten years later, it’s no surprise we are in the middle of a critical shortage of doctors and nurses.

    The Albanese government has implemented changes to speed up the recruitment of internationally trained health professionals. It is also offering incentives to encourage more clinicians to work in rural and remote Australia.

    But these are just more of the same, similar to the plethora of policies which have left us in the mess we are in. Ensuring we have the right workforce mix to address rural health needs requires a fresh approach. That includes revised funding models – as proposed in the GP incentives review – and allowing all health professionals to work to their full scope of practice.

    Reform hard slog

    Although health often ranks in the top three issues people say are important to them in elections, cost of living is the main focus of media and political commentary.

    The promise to increase bulk billing will help lower primary care costs.

    But genuine health care reform does not attract much media attention, which means it doesn’t get the profile necessary to prompt the right political promises.

    The hard slog of change takes years, and involves much more than a few carrots thrown to voters in an election. It takes careful negotiation with stakeholders and getting the infrastructure right.

    Given the initiatives listed above, Health Minister Mark Butler has done well on reform this term. Unfortunately, voters don’t see that, and appear not to value systematic and coherent reform strategies.

    It is hoped that whoever is health minister after the election will continue on the reform path to a more sustainable and affordable health system.

    This is the eighth article in our special series, Australia’s Policy Challenges. You can read the other articles here.

    Stephen Duckett was a member of the Strengthening Medicare Task Force, the Review of General Prcatice Incentives, the Mental Health Reform Advisory Group, and the Expert Panel on the National Early Intervention Service

    – ref. More bulk billing is fine. But what the health system really needs this election is genuine reform – https://theconversation.com/more-bulk-billing-is-fine-but-what-the-health-system-really-needs-this-election-is-genuine-reform-250644

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s trade war puts America’s AI ambitions at risk

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Zomaya, Professor, School of Computer Science, University of Sydney

    remotevfx.com/Shutterstock

    The global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump earlier this month shows no signs of ending anytime soon. In recent days, China suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals that are vital ingredients in everything from electric cars and drones to the semiconductor chips that power artificial intelligence (AI) servers.

    Around the same time, Trump also indicated he would soon impose new tariffs on semiconductor chips.

    All of this is happening at the same time the US is forging ahead with a US$500 billion (A$784 billion) project known as “Stargate” to accelerate the development of AI in the country.

    But the escalating trade war does not square with America’s ambitious AI plans. In fact, Trump’s tariffs (which, in the case of China, now total 145%) are set to undermine these plans by increasing the cost of AI development and disrupting supply chains for AI goods.

    In turn, this will hinder the pace of AI innovation and adoption in the US – and potentially elsewhere.

    Inflating the prices of essential components

    AI development requires significant computational power and specialised hardware such as high-end graphic processing units (GPUs), which are predominantly manufactured in Taiwan and South Korea and often assembled in China.

    US tariffs will directly inflate the prices of these essential components. One analysis estimates tariffs could increase the material costs of data centre building by around 20%, with IT hardware components potentially rising by 25%.

    This is a major concern for AI industry leaders such as OpenAI, which operates ChatGPT. For example, the company’s chief executive, Sam Altman, recently said his team is “working around-the-clock” to determine how the trade war would affect the cost of running their AI models.

    But the increased cost on AI development caused by the trade war will also mean tech startups in the US will have higher barriers to entry and fewer opportunities to test AI capabilities. In turn, this will harm AI innovation.

    In theory, tariffs might support the reshoring of chip production in the US through initiatives such as the CHIPS and Science Act, which promotes domestic US semiconductor production. But it would take years for such efforts to fully bear fruit. And Trump has also recently taken steps to walk away from the CHIPS and Science Act.

    Aggressive AI nationalism

    The trade war also creates risks for the international development of AI.

    For example, the cost increases that flow from tariffs could create a reluctance to invest in AI infrastructure – particularly data centres. Other tech companies might also cancel or delay plans to build data centres in the US partly because of higher equipment prices.

    In addition, tariffs could push countries into further fortifying their AI efforts, creating a kind of aggressive AI nationalism. They could also encourage domestic AI development to promote national interests. This could lead to isolationism and put another nail in the coffin of the open-source culture that once fuelled AI innovation.

    Tariffs are supposed to promote domestic industries. But high costs and a fracturing of the cooperation that is indispensable to the continuation of the AI landscape might well be the outcome.

    One analysis estimates US tariffs could increase the material costs of data centre building by around 20%.
    IM Imagery/Shutterstock

    Knock-on effects for Australia

    Australia is not the direct target of most US tariffs. But the tariffs on advanced technologies and critical components pose risks to its ability to develop AI.

    Although Australia aims to bolster its domestic AI capabilities, it currently relies heavily on imported hardware for AI development. Tariffs will likely make it more expensive for Australian companies and research institutions to acquire the necessary infrastructure, such as semiconductors, GPUs, and cloud computing equipment. In turn, this will potentially hinder their technological progress.

    As the US clamps down on trade and technologies, Australia may find itself locked out of international research projects, perhaps those involving US companies or technologies.

    Such limits on data sharing, international cross-border AI talent, and cloud infrastructure risk slowing the rate of innovation.

    To mitigate the above risks, Australia must invest more in developing domestic AI capacity and diversifying its technological partnerships.

    Albert Zomaya receives funding from a variety of government sources. He is also a member of the Australian Academy of Science.

    – ref. Trump’s trade war puts America’s AI ambitions at risk – https://theconversation.com/trumps-trade-war-puts-americas-ai-ambitions-at-risk-254462

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: US-China trade war leaves NZ worse off, but still well placed to weather the storm – new modelling

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of Technology

    Getty Images

    Forecasting the potential impact of Donald Trump’s turbulent tariff policies is a fraught business – and fraught for business. The United States president has changed, paused and exempted various categories of goods so often, the only certainty is uncertainty.

    On “Liberation Day” (April 2) he famously announced far-reaching “reciprocal tariffs” on imports from most trading nations. Since then he has paused those tariffs, but kept 25% on imports of steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, and 10% “baseline” tariffs on all other imports.

    The big exception is China, whose retaliation against the reciprocal US tariffs has resulted in an escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

    On April 9, the US raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, but later scaled back duties on electronic goods such as laptops and smartphones to 20%. On April 12, China increased its tariff on US goods to 125%.

    With China being New Zealand’s largest trade partner by far, and the US its third largest (just behind Australia), the impacts of this global standoff will be indirect but nevertheless significant.

    GDP impacts of a trade war

    To estimate the impacts of a US-China trade war, as well as other tariffs imposed by the US, I use the same global model of production, trade and consumption of goods and services employed to recently calculate the impacts of the Liberation Day tariffs.

    As we can see, China and the US both lose from the tariff war. China’s GDP decreases by US$114 billion (0.58%), which equates to $236 per household per year on average. US GDP declines by $76 billion (0.25%) or $604 per household (all figures in US$).

    The tariffs all but eliminate trade in goods between China and the US, except for electronic goods exported from China, which are subject to a lower tariff (for now).

    Vietnam and India gain from the trade war because they produce many goods that substitute for Chinese products in the US market.

    The trade war will affect New Zealand in at least three ways:

    • as the two nations buy less from each other, there is room for other nations to expand their exports to these markets

    • decreased incomes in China and the US will reduce global demand for all goods

    • and the tariffs will increase the costs of global supply chains.

    The net effect is a 0.03% decrease in New Zealand’s GDP, equivalent to $70 million or $36 per household per year (roughly NZ$120 million and NZ$60 respectively).

    Reshaping of the world economy

    The simulations do not capture the impact of uncertainty caused by Trump’s frequent and abrupt changes in tariffs, carve-outs and clarifications (sometimes announced via social media).

    The global US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, last updated before the Liberation Day tariffs, is at a record high – 29 times higher than before the 2024 presidential election. This unprecedented uncertainty, coupled with the risk of high tariffs, is making exporters increasingly reluctant to commit to the US market.

    The US currently accounts for 26.3% of global GDP. With higher future growth in many developing economies, especially in Asia, this is forecast to fall to 16.3% by 2050.

    China is predicted to supplant the US as the world’s largest economy sometime in the 2030s, and by 2050 to account for 18.4% of global GDP (up from 16.9%).

    India’s global GDP share is expected to increase significantly, from its current value of 3.7% to 9.7%. Indonesia and Philippines are also expected to grow rapidly.

    New Zealand signed a free trade agreement with China in 2008 (and an upgrade to the agreement in 2022), has begun negotiations for one with India, and has regional agreements with many other rapidly developing Asian economies.

    It remains to be seen whether Trump’s rollout of high tariffs signals a lasting policy shift or is merely a negotiating tactic to secure more favourable terms for US exporters. But New Zealand is well placed to pivot to alternative markets if needed.

    Niven Winchester has previously received funding from the Productivity Commission and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to estimate the impacts of potential trade policies. He is affiliated with Motu Economic & Public Policy Research.

    – ref. US-China trade war leaves NZ worse off, but still well placed to weather the storm – new modelling – https://theconversation.com/us-china-trade-war-leaves-nz-worse-off-but-still-well-placed-to-weather-the-storm-new-modelling-254469

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Caitlin Johnstone: Every day the Gaza holocaust continues, the empire tells the truth about itself

    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. –

    COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone

    Every day the Gaza holocaust continues, the Western empire tells the truth about itself.

    The US government is telling you the truth about itself.

    Israel is telling you the truth about itself.

    Their Western allies are telling you the truth about themselves.

    The Western media are telling you the truth about themselves.

    One of the most important stages when preparing to leave an abusive relationship is the information-gathering stage. This is when you begin quietly observing and making note of your partner’s abusive behaviour, letting them tell you the truth about themselves with their actions rather than their words.

    The information-gathering stage is important because long-term abusive relationships are usually very confusing for the victim; if the abuse were simple and easy to understand, the relationship wouldn’t have continued into the long term.


    Every day the Gaza holocaust continues . . .    Video/audio: Caitlin Johnstone

    It’s therefore often helpful to cultivate a clear understanding of the lay of the land before trying to navigate your way out of it, especially if your abuser is particularly manipulative and adept at confusing you. This ensures that you will be able to view their manipulations with distrust, so you won’t get sucked in by them.


    As infuriating as it is to watch this genocide drag out month after bloody month, it would be a mistake to believe everyone is just passively witnessing it all.

    If you watched someone you love in the information-gathering stage prior to leaving an abusive relationship, you might get frustrated by what appears to be inertia and passivity on their part when what you want to see is them sprinting for the door with a suitcase. But they’re not inert or passive  —  they’re gathering information.

    Westerners are in a psychologically abusive relationship with the empire. Our minds are hammered with propaganda indoctrination from as soon as we are old enough to start learning about our world to ensure our compliance with the power structure that rules over us.

    It happens in school. It happens with the mass media. It happens with the Silicon Valley platforms we look to for information.

    And it gets confusing. All the information about our world and our place in it is distorted by mass-scale psychological manipulation for the benefit of the powerful. It’s hard for someone who’s been raised in such an environment to navigate their mind out of its indoctrination. It’s hard to know the truth.

    But in Gaza, the empire is telling us the truth. It’s exposing itself in all its naked loathsomeness.

    Our rulers murder children.

    Our rulers sponsor genocide and ethnic cleansing.

    Our rulers lie to us and manipulate us.

    Our rulers work to censor, silence, marginalise and deport anyone who criticises their criminality.

    We do not live in a free society that is guided by truth and morality. We live under the most murderous and tyrannical power structure on the face of this planet. And we should distrust everything about it.

    That’s what they’re showing us with the Gaza holocaust. More and more people are opening their eyes to it every day.

    And when enough eyes open, leaving the abusive relationship once and for all becomes a real possibility.

    Caitlin Johnstone is an Australian independent journalist and poet. Her articles include The UN Torture Report On Assange Is An Indictment Of Our Entire Society. She publishes a website and Caitlin’s Newsletter. This article is republished with permission.

    This article was first published on Café Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PNG’s ‘chief servant’ James Marape defeats no-confidence vote

    By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor

    Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape has survived a motion of no confidence against him in Parliament.

    During the proceedings, livestreamed on EMTV, Speaker Job Pomat announced the results of the vote as 16 votes in favour and 89 against.

    In moving the motion, the member for Abau, Sir Puka Temu, nominated Sir Peter Ipatas as an alternative prime minister to Marape, and said the motion was moved on principle.

    “This is not a vote of ambition, it is a vote of accountability, it is a vote of conscience. Mr Speaker what is the role of government if not to uplift its people,” Sir Puka said.

    The seconder of the motion, Wabag Open MP Lino Tom acknowledged the government’s superior numbers, but said the opposition were acting in the interest of the people and challenged Marape to address them on the floor.

    “He needs to tell the people because he is the chief accountable officer of this country,” Tom said.

    “He can no longer blame his incompetent ministers. He can no longer blame any other person here on this floor.”

    Speaker put question
    The Speaker then went to immediately put the question, provoking the ire of the opposition bench with Madang MP Bryan Kramer accusing him of acting contrary to the Supreme Court order that had the House resume to hear the motion, which had initially been denied by the Parliament’s private business committee.

    “Mr Speaker must be consistent with the privileges and the spirit and intent of the constitution that provide every member the opportunity to debate,” he said.

    “This is a court order if you entertain this motion of ‘question be put’ then there will be contempt proceedings.”

    Despite multiple points of order from the opposition calling for the motion to be debated, Pomat proceeded to put the question and the results were overwhelmingly Marape’s favour.

    “Those in favour of this motion are 16 and those who are not in favour of this motion and who want the Honourable Member for Tari Pori, Honourable James Marape, to remain as prime minister are 89.”

    After the vote, Marape moved a motion to address the movers of the motion, and spoke at length about the achievements of his government, while throwing jabs at the opposition MPs, many of who had served as ministers in his government at different times.

    He finished by thanking all who supported him in today’s leadership challenge.

    Thanks to members
    “I want to say thank you for members on both sides of the House for your participation today.

    “A sincere thank you to the 89 on their feet, who stood up to vote and I want to say thank you as your chief servant.

    “I will try my absolute best to continue on leaving no place and no one behind as the ultimate aim of this government and should be for any government going forward into the future.”

    The nominated challenger, Sir Peter, also rose to thank the opposition for nominating him, and to all the people of Papua New Guinea who reached out to him with messages of support.

    He said he only accepted the nomination because so many MPs had complained about the prime minister’s performance.

    Sir Ipatas challenged government MPs to stop bickering and gossiping about James Marape behind his back.

    “As he rightly said, he is putting his time and effort into trying to make this country great,” he said.

    Call to ‘not gossip’
    “It is about our ministers and leaders and leaders of coalition partners not gossiping, but be open with the prime minister and talk about issues that we have for the country and for the people.

    “This country belongs to all of us. Our people.”

    Parliament is now adjourned until May 27.

    Under new laws passed last month, Marape now has an 18-month reprieve from votes of no confidence.

    With only two years left until the next election, RNZ Pacific understands this effectively gives him a clear run to the 2027 National General Election.

    Several opposition MPs in Parliament on Tuesday urged Marape to make the most of the upcoming period of stability, and deliver some real results for Papua New Guineans.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Does Russia have military interest in Indonesia? Here’s what we know – and why Australia would be concerned

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Sussex, Associate Professor (Adj), Griffith Asia Institute; and Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

    A news report that Russia has sought to base long-range aircraft in Indonesia caught Australia’s political leaders by surprise during an already hectic election campaign.

    The military publication Janes reported on Tuesday that Russia had requested permission for its aircraft to be based at the Manuhua Air Force Base in Indonesia’s easternmost province of Papua.

    The base is just 1,300 kilometres away from Darwin.

    Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles issued a statement denying the report, saying his Indonesian counterpart assured him there would be no Russian planes based in Indonesia. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he was seeking “further clarification” with Jakarta about the Janes report.

    Janes is a respected outlet when it comes to defence news, so it’s likely the Russians did float the idea, even if it might have been done at lower levels.

    Why would Russia be cosying up to Indonesia?

    Since Prabowo Subianto came to power as Indonesia’s new president last October, Moscow and Jakarta have sought to deepen their military ties. In fact, the two countries conducted their first-ever joint naval exercises a month after Prabowo took office.

    But this isn’t a totally new strategy by Moscow, which has tried on numerous occasions to pivot to Asia to give itself more economic heft and leverage in the region.

    The Kremlin is also cognisant that Europe won’t be a friend for the foreseeable future. As such, it’s even more pressing for Russia to establish itself as a player in the Indo-Pacific region – and with that comes a miltary and security presence.

    About ten years ago, for instance, the Russian regime secured an agreement with Vietnam to allow its air force to refuel their aircraft at a former US base in the country. Russia also had interest in reestablishing a submarine base in Vietnam and has sold submarines to the country.

    In addition, Moscow has sought to sell defence technology and fighter jets to Indonesia for some time, seeing it as a potentially lucrative market for Russian arms. Beyond defence, the bilateral relationship has also focused on energy and education.

    These attempts to deepen Moscow-Jakarta ties form part of a targeted Russian campaign to boost its relationships with a number of Southeast Asian nations.

    What about the timing?

    If the Janes report is accurate, the timing of the purported approach from Russia would be interesting. The report said it came after a meeting between Sergei Shoigu (recently demoted from Russia’s defence minister to an inferior role as secretary of the Russian Security Council) and Indonesia’s defence minister in February of this year.

    At the time, the United States was distracted by the first chaotic weeks of US President Donald Trump’s second term in office.

    So, if Russia did make such a request, it would be highly opportunistic, especially given Jakarta has been keen to deepen ties with Moscow.

    It is also noteworthy that Indonesia recently joined the BRICS, the group of rapidly emerging economies that also includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Russia, among others.



    Read more:
    Indonesia’s BRICS agenda: 2 reasons Prabowo’s foreign policy contrasts with Jokowi’s

    How concerned should Australia be?

    Even though both Canberra and Jakarta dismissed the report, there was good reason for Australia to be concerned.

    Russia’s long-range aviation assets, notably the venerable Tu-95, which is used for reconnaissance as well as strategic bombing, can easily travel over 10,000 kilometres.

    From a base in Indonesia, this would give the Russian air force the ability to conduct ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaisance) missions during Australian military exercises, gather data on military installations in the Northern Territory (which also host US Marines), and even conduct surveillance on US military activities in Guam.

    Equally, given the closeness of ties between Beijing and Moscow, any Russian intelligence that was gathered could be shared with China.

    The reported Russian military interest in Indonesia will also have irritated Australian foreign policy makers, especially since Canberra has invested significant diplomatic capital in boosting Australia-Indonesia ties.

    Fortunately, the closeness of the relationship, which includes recently upgraded defence ties, will also have allowed for some plain speaking from Australian interlocutors.

    They will doubtless have pointed out that agreeing to any such Kremlin request would cast significant doubt on Indonesian claims about non-alignment. It would also be viewed unfavourably by other regional actors, who have no interest in seeing an enhanced Russian military presence in the region.

    The assurance from Jakarta that no Russian planes would be based in Indonesia is therefore a positive development.

    But ultimately the reported Russian request is another example of the messy and fragmented world we now live in.

    It highlights the reality that Australia will sometimes have to do business with partners who have friends we don’t like. Under those conditions, being firm on issues that threaten our national interests – like the prospective basing of military assets by a hostile power close to our shores – becomes all the more important.

    Matthew Sussex has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Atlantic Council, the Fulbright Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation, the Lowy Institute and various Australian government departments and agencies.

    – ref. Does Russia have military interest in Indonesia? Here’s what we know – and why Australia would be concerned – https://theconversation.com/does-russia-have-military-interest-in-indonesia-heres-what-we-know-and-why-australia-would-be-concerned-254601

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Obama praises Harvard for ‘setting example’ to universities resisting Trump

    Asia Pacific Report

    Former US President Barack Obama has taken to social media to praise Harvard’s decision to stand up for academic freedom by rebuffing the Trump administration’s demands.

    “Harvard has set an example for other higher-ed institutions — rejecting an unlawful and ham-handed attempt to stifle academic freedom, while taking concrete steps to make sure all students at Harvard can benefit from an environment of intellectual inquiry, rigorous debate and mutual respect,” Obama wrote in a post on X.

    He called on other universities to follow the lead.

    Harvard will not comply with the Trump administration’s demands to dismantle its diversity programming, limit student protests over Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, and submit to far-reaching federal audits in exchange for its federal funding, university president Alan M. Garber ’76 announced yesterday afternoon.

    “No government — regardless of which party is in power — should dictate what private universities can teach, whom they can admit and hire, and which areas of study and inquiry they can pursue,” he wrote, reports the university’s Harvard Crimson news team.

    The announcement comes two weeks after three federal agencies announced a review into roughly $9 billion in Harvard’s federal funding and days after the Trump administration sent its initial demands, which included dismantling diversity programming, banning masks, and committing to “full cooperation” with the Department of Homeland Security.

    Within hours of the announcement to reject the White House demands, the Trump administration paused $2.2 billion in multi-year grants and $60 million in multi-year contracts to Harvard in a dramatic escalation in its crusade against the university.

    More focused demands
    On Friday, the Trump administration had delivered a longer and more focused set of demands than the ones they had shared two weeks earlier.

    It asked Harvard to “derecognise” pro-Palestine student groups, audit its academic programmes for viewpoint diversity, and expel students involved in an altercation at a 2023 pro-Palestine protest on the Harvard Business School campus.

    It also asked Harvard to reform its admissions process for international students to screen for students “supportive of terrorism and anti-Semitism” — and immediately report international students to federal authorities if they break university conduct policies.

    It called for “reducing the power held by faculty (whether tenured or untenured) and administrators more committed to activism than scholarship” and installing leaders committed to carrying out the administration’s demands.

    And it asked the university to submit quarterly updates, beginning in June 2025, certifying its compliance.

    Garber condemned the demands, calling them a “political ploy” disguised as an effort to address antisemitism on campus.

    “It makes clear that the intention is not to work with us to address antisemitism in a cooperative and constructive manner,” he wrote.

    “Although some of the demands outlined by the government are aimed at combating antisemitism, the majority represent direct governmental regulation of the ‘intellectual conditions’ at Harvard.”

    The Harvard Crimson daily news, founded in 1873 . . . how it reported the universoity’s defiance of the Trump administration today. Image: HC screenshot APR

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: for a few hours, it seemed possible the Russians might be coming

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    For a few hours on Tuesday afternoon, it seemed just possible the Russians might be sending their planes to a base very near us.

    A claim on the military and intelligence site Janes that said the Russians were seeking to base several long range aircraft in Papua, a province of Indonesia, caused a massive flurry on the election trail.

    It gave heart to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton that national security might be brought into play as an election issue.

    Dutton was quick to recall how in 2022 the Labor opposition jumped on the Morrison government for apparently being caught by surprise at what was going on in the Pacific, when a security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands turned into a campaign issue.

    Had the Albanese government been caught unawares?

    The Janes report said: “Jakarta has received an official request from Moscow, seeking permission for Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) aircraft to be based at a facility in Indonesia’s easternmost province.

    “Separate sources from the Indonesian government have confirmed with Janes that the request was received by the office of Minister of Defence Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin following his meeting with Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu in February 2025.

    “In the request, Russia seeks to base several long-range aircraft at the Manuhua Air Force Base, which shares a runway with the Frans Kaisiepo Airport, documents that have been presented to Janes reveal.

    “The airbase is situated in Biak Numfor in the Indonesian province of Papua, and it is home to the Indonesian Air Force’s Aviation Squadron 27, which operates a fleet of CN235 surveillance aircraft.”

    The government sought urgent clarification, while Dutton – now struggling in the polls – sought to score a quick political point without waiting for confirmation. Both government and opposition agreed on one thing, however: nobody wanted to see the Russians get such a foothold.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, “We are seeking further information, we obviously do not want to see Russian influence in our region, very clearly.”

    “We have a good relationship with our friends in Indonesia, and we’re seeking further clarification.”

    Dutton said it would be “a catastrophic failure of diplomatic relations if Penny Wong and Anthony Albanese didn’t have forewarning” about such a Russian move before it was made public.

    “This is a very, very troubling development. The prime minister and the foreign affairs minister should have the depth of relationship with Indonesia to have had forewarning of this,” Dutton said.

    “My message to President Putin is that he’s not welcome in our neighbourhood. We don’t share any values with President Putin, and we do not want a presence, a military presence, from Russia in our region, which would be destabilising for south-east Asia.”

    Late Tuesday, the air went out of the balloon.

    In a statement Defence Minister Richard Marles said, “I have spoken to my counterpart, HE Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin the Minister for Defence, and he has said to me in the clearest possible terms, reports of the prospect of Russian aircraft operating from Indonesia are simply not true”.

    Earlier Marles said that last year Australia signed a defence cooperation agreement with Indonesia, “which really is the deepest level defence agreement we’ve ever had with Indonesia”.

    “We are seeing increasing cooperation between Australia and Indonesia at a defence level.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: for a few hours, it seemed possible the Russians might be coming – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-for-a-few-hours-it-seemed-possible-the-russians-might-be-coming-254604

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A weird phrase is plaguing scientific papers – and we traced it back to a glitch in AI training data

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron J. Snoswell, Research Fellow in AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology

    Google Deepmind / Unsplash

    Earlier this year, scientists discovered a peculiar term appearing in published papers: “vegetative electron microscopy”.

    This phrase, which sounds technical but is actually nonsense, has become a “digital fossil” – an error preserved and reinforced in artificial intelligence (AI) systems that is nearly impossible to remove from our knowledge repositories.

    Like biological fossils trapped in rock, these digital artefacts may become permanent fixtures in our information ecosystem.

    The case of vegetative electron microscopy offers a troubling glimpse into how AI systems can perpetuate and amplify errors throughout our collective knowledge.

    A bad scan and an error in translation

    Vegetative electron microscopy appears to have originated through a remarkable coincidence of unrelated errors.

    First, two papers from the 1950s, published in the journal Bacteriological Reviews, were scanned and digitised.

    However, the digitising process erroneously combined “vegetative” from one column of text with “electron” from another. As a result, the phantom term was created.

    Excerpts from scanned papers show how incorrectly parsed column breaks lead to the term ‘vegetative electron micro…’ being introduced.
    Bacteriological Reviews

    Decades later, “vegetative electron microscopy” turned up in some Iranian scientific papers. In 2017 and 2019, two papers used the term in English captions and abstracts.

    This appears to be due to a translation error. In Farsi, the words for “vegetative” and “scanning” differ by only a single dot.

    Screenshot from Google Translate showing the similarity of the Farsi terms for ‘vegetative’ and ‘scanning’.
    Google Translate

    An error on the rise

    The upshot? As of today, “vegetative electron microscopy” appears in 22 papers, according to Google Scholar. One was the subject of a contested retraction from a Springer Nature journal, and Elsevier issued a correction for another.

    The term also appears in news articles discussing subsequent integrity investigations.

    Vegetative electron microscopy began to appear more frequently in the 2020s. To find out why, we had to peer inside modern AI models – and do some archaeological digging through the vast layers of data they were trained on.

    Empirical evidence of AI contamination

    The large language models behind modern AI chatbots such as ChatGPT are “trained” on huge amounts of text to predict the likely next word in a sequence. The exact contents of a model’s training data are often a closely guarded secret.

    To test whether a model “knew” about vegetative electron microscopy, we input snippets of the original papers to find out if the model would complete them with the nonsense term or more sensible alternatives.

    The results were revealing. OpenAI’s GPT-3 consistently completed phrases with “vegetative electron microscopy”. Earlier models such as GPT-2 and BERT did not. This pattern helped us isolate when and where the contamination occurred.

    We also found the error persists in later models including GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude 3.5. This suggests the nonsense term may now be permanently embedded in AI knowledge bases.

    Screenshot of a command line program showing the term ‘vegetative electron microscopy’ being generated by GPT-3.5 (specifically, the model gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct). The top 17 most likely completions of the provided text are ‘vegetative electron microscopy’, and these suggestions are 2.2 times more likely than the next most likely prediction.
    OpenAI

    By comparing what we know about the training datasets of different models, we identified the CommonCrawl dataset of scraped internet pages as the most likely vector where AI models first learned this term.

    The scale problem

    Finding errors of this sort is not easy. Fixing them may be almost impossible.

    One reason is scale. The CommonCrawl dataset, for example, is millions of gigabytes in size. For most researchers outside large tech companies, the computing resources required to work at this scale are inaccessible.

    Another reason is a lack of transparency in commercial AI models. OpenAI and many other developers refuse to provide precise details about the training data for their models. Research efforts to reverse engineer some of these datasets have also been stymied by copyright takedowns.

    When errors are found, there is no easy fix. Simple keyword filtering could deal with specific terms such as vegetative electron microscopy. However, it would also eliminate legitimate references (such as this article).

    More fundamentally, the case raises an unsettling question. How many other nonsensical terms exist in AI systems, waiting to be discovered?

    Implications for science and publishing

    This “digital fossil” also raises important questions about knowledge integrity as AI-assisted research and writing become more common.

    Publishers have responded inconsistently when notified of papers including vegetative electron microscopy. Some have retracted affected papers, while others defended them. Elsevier notably attempted to justify the term’s validity before eventually issuing a correction.

    We do not yet know if other such quirks plague large language models, but it is highly likely. Either way, the use of AI systems has already created problems for the peer-review process.

    For instance, observers have noted the rise of “tortured phrases” used to evade automated integrity software, such as “counterfeit consciousness” instead of “artificial intelligence”. Additionally, phrases such as “I am an AI language model” have been found in other retracted papers.

    Some automatic screening tools such as Problematic Paper Screener now flag vegetative electron microscopy as a warning sign of possible AI-generated content. However, such approaches can only address known errors, not undiscovered ones.

    Living with digital fossils

    The rise of AI creates opportunities for errors to become permanently embedded in our knowledge systems, through processes no single actor controls. This presents challenges for tech companies, researchers, and publishers alike.

    Tech companies must be more transparent about training data and methods. Researchers must find new ways to evaluate information in the face of AI-generated convincing nonsense. Scientific publishers must improve their peer review processes to spot both human and AI-generated errors.

    Digital fossils reveal not just the technical challenge of monitoring massive datasets, but the fundamental challenge of maintaining reliable knowledge in systems where errors can become self-perpetuating.

    Aaron J. Snoswell receives funding from the Australian Research Council funded Discovery Project “Generative AI and the future of academic writing and publishing” (DP250100074) and has previously received research funding from OpenAI.

    Kevin Witzenberger receives funding from the Australian Research Council funded Discovery Project “Generative AI and the future of academic writing and publishing” (DP250100074)

    Rayane El Masri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A weird phrase is plaguing scientific papers – and we traced it back to a glitch in AI training data – https://theconversation.com/a-weird-phrase-is-plaguing-scientific-papers-and-we-traced-it-back-to-a-glitch-in-ai-training-data-254463

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor surges to 7-point lead in Resolve poll, and has sizeable leads in two other national polls

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The significant turn-around in the federal polls ahead of the 2025 federal election, with the momentum now moving firmly in Labor’s direction.

    A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted April 9–13 from a sample of 1,642, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since the previous Resolve poll that was conducted after the March 25 budget. In late February, the Coalition had led by 55–45 in Resolve, so this is a big turnaround for Labor.

    Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down three), 31% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one), 12% independents (up three) and 5% others (steady).

    Independents were probably offered as an option everywhere. Future Resolve polls are likely to account for the declaration of nominations on Friday by giving voters in each seat a full ballot readout. Only viable independents will attract significant support, so the overall independent vote will drop.

    The preferencing method isn’t stated, but Resolve has used respondent preferences for its headline in its previous polls. By 2022 election preference flows, this poll would be about 53.5–46.5 to Labor, so it’s likely there was no difference between the two methods.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval surged 12 points to +1, with 45% saying he was doing a good job and 44% a poor job. Albanese had suffered negative double digit ratings for more than a year. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped eight points to -18. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 46–30 (42–33 previously).

    Now 68% believed Donald Trump’s election was bad for Australia, up from 60% in the post-budget poll that was taken before the stock market slump that followed Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement on April 2.

    On Trump’s influence on the election, 33% said it made them less likely to vote for the Coalition while 14% said more likely (35–15 with uncommitted voters). When this question was asked of Labor, it was 22% more likely to vote Labor and 21% less likely (24–24 with uncommitted).

    The Liberals continued to lead Labor on economic management by 36–31 (36–29 previously). On keeping the cost of living low, Labor and the Liberals were tied at 30–30 (31–27 to the Liberals previously). The last time the Liberals didn’t lead on cost of living was in October 2023.

    Two other national polls also had Labor gaining, with Labor now leading by 50–45 including undecided in Essential, and by 54.5–45.5 in Morgan. Here is the poll graph.

    With Labor’s two-party vote between 52% and 54.5% in the five most recent national polls (YouGov, Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and Resolve), they would be very likely to win a majority in the House of Representatives if the election results reflect this polling.

    Single-member systems are not proportional. If Labor wins the national two-party vote by about 53–47, they will win a large majority of the seats in two-party terms against the Coalition. While Labor would lose some of their two-party win seats to Greens and independents, they would still win enough seats for a clear House majority.

    Does the Coalition have any chance?

    The current polls were taken after a period of stock market turmoil following Trump’s tariffs announcement. If there are no more major stock market slumps before the May 3 election, perhaps the Coalition can recover. Or Albanese could perform badly in Wednesday night’s ABC debate with Dutton. In-person early voting begins next Tuesday, so there’s less time left for recovery before many votes are cast.

    The current polls all used respondent preferences for their headline, but there was no difference between respondent and 2022 election flows. Previously, polls were showing a difference of about one point in the Coalition’s favour. The Trump effect has increased Labor’s share of respondent preferences.

    The Coalition’s main chance is that the polls are overstating Labor. In 2022, Labor’s primary vote was overstated, but preference flows were better for Labor than expected, causing cancellation of errors. In 2019, the polls suggested Labor would win by 51.5–48.5, but they lost by that margin.

    In the US, polls have understated Trump in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections. I don’t believe that we should expect the polls are overstating Labor just because they overstated them in 2019 and 2022. But this is the Coalition’s best hope of an unexpected good result on election night.

    Essential poll: Labor gains five-point lead

    A national Essential poll, conducted April 9–13 from a sample of 2,254 (double the normal sample), gave Labor a 50–45 lead including undecided by respondent preferences (a 48–47 Labor lead in the post-budget Essential poll). This is Labor’s biggest lead in Essential since October 2023. If the undecided were excluded, Labor would lead by 53–47 according to The Guardian’s poll report.

    Primary votes were 32% Coalition (down two), 31% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (up one), 9% One Nation (steady), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 9% for all Others (up one) and 4% undecided (down one). By 2022 election flows, this would give Labor about a 53–47 lead.

    Albanese’s net approval was down one to -3 (47% disapprove, 44% approve), while Dutton’s net approval was down three to -9, his worst in Essential since May 2023. Albanese was trusted over Dutton on addressing cost of living by 34–28. By 50–33, voters thought the country was on the wrong track (52–32 previously).

    By 49–18, voters wanted Australia’s annual immigration intake to decrease, with 33% wanting it to stay about the same. By 81–19, voters said they don’t pay for news via subscriptions or donations. On where they get information about news and current events, 54% selected commercial media, 24% public broadcasters, 14% social media influencers and 7% podcasters.

    Morgan poll: Labor gains nine-point lead

    A national Morgan poll, conducted April 7–13 from a sample of 1,708, gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the March 31 to April 4 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 33.5% Coalition (up 0.5), 32% Labor (down 0.5), 14.5% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (steady), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (down 0.5), 10% independents (up one) and 3% others (down 1.5). By 2022 election flows, this gave Labor an unchanged 54.5–45.5 lead.

    By 48.5–34.5, voters thought the country was going in the wrong direction (52–33 previously). This is the smallest lead for wrong direction since September 2023. Morgan’s consumer confidence index was down 2.6 points to 84.2.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor surges to 7-point lead in Resolve poll, and has sizeable leads in two other national polls – https://theconversation.com/labor-surges-to-7-point-lead-in-resolve-poll-and-has-sizeable-leads-in-two-other-national-polls-254516

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Renting a home in Australia means handing over too much sensitive info. It’s a national security risk

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Moataz ElQadi, Adjunct Researcher, Faculty of Information Technology, Monash University

    Daria Nipot/Shutterstock

    Our personal information is more valuable than ever. The most recent government cyber threat report warns that foreign state actors have an “enduring interest” in obtaining sensitive and personally identifiable information about Australians.

    In recent weeks, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese noted “there is a cyber attack in Australia roughly every six minutes. This is a regular issue.”

    In some situations, it can be difficult to protect our info even when we’re aware of the risks. Notably, in Australia many rental providers and their agents collect, store and disclose excessive personal information on potential tenants. Sometimes, they collect more info than what’s needed to get a government security clearance.

    With about one-third of Australian households being renters, the handling of renters’ data is a major concern for Australia’s information security.

    So what information are real estate agents collecting, and how can we mitigate the risks?

    Steep competition for rentals

    For several years now, Australia has faced a rental crisis. Low vacancy rates – below 1% in some capital cities – not only drive up rental prices, but can result in “bidding wars” over rentals.

    With renters competing for housing, rental providers are empowered to command larger rent increases. They also require potential tenants to provide extensive personal information.

    For tenants, sharing – or oversharing – of personal information in the hope of securing a home might seem acceptable.

    However, the collection and handling of this information raises serious security concerns. If Australians’ sensitive personal data falls into the hands of cyber criminals, or foreign agents, this has security implications for the entire nation.

    What info are renters asked for?

    Potential tenants need to provide information to the satisfaction of the real estate agent and their client, the rental provider. This information is increasingly collected online via rental application websites where the form questions are controlled by real estate agents.

    The websites themselves are subject to the Australian Privacy Act 1988, but the data is handed over to real estate agents and owners.

    The rental application websites seem to recognise that this information is extensive: one rental application website started selling a privacy service where they vouch for the applicant instead of sharing their information with the real estate agents.

    In some cases, the requested data matches or even exceeds the requirements for a government security clearance. The Australian Government Security Vetting Agency (AGSVA) has a clear public privacy statement. It explains how data is collected and handled and used only for the assessment of a security clearance. Rental providers don’t necessarily follow the same stringent rules.

    Information collected by some rental application forms may include five or more years of address history. Others request five or more years of employment history. In addition, financial information such as payslips and bank statements are also required.

    Other sensitive – and irrelevant – information includes vehicle registration numbers and pet names.

    Potential tenants are also usually asked to attach personal identification documents including passports, driver licences and Medicare cards. They may be asked to list up to two personal and one business references.

    A rental agent may require five years of employment history.
    Author provided

    If any of this information falls into the wrong hands, it easily exposes the person to social engineering, personalised scams or identity and account theft.

    Who can access the info?

    The names of family members and pet names are a common – albeit unsafe – choice of password. The rental application forms collect both. In Australia, research by Telstra and YouGov found that 20% of Australians used pets’ names as passwords, and 17% used their birth dates.

    Pet names may be required on rental applications. This can give away some people’s passwords.
    Author provided

    If a rental provider, or their agent, shares applicant information with others, it can be a security breach. This makes the storage, handling and sharing of this information by private rental providers a major concern.

    Rental agency agreements commonly state that personal information can be disclosed to “any person who maintains any record, listing or database of defaults by tenants.” This policy, which a tenant has to accept, is already loose.

    More importantly, after the information is sent to the owner of the rental property, there is no visibility as to who that is, or what they do with the information.

    Example of a privacy agreement on a rental application form.
    Author provided

    Too much info to rent a home

    Having to share extensive personal information is more than an inconvenience for renters – it’s a serious security concern. The government should put explicit limits on personal information requested by rental providers.

    One technological solution to this problem could be “access tokens” provided by banks. People in Australia are protected by the Consumer Data Right. This allows consumers to authorise a data holder, such as a bank, to share data with an accredited recipient.

    Australian banks are held to strict information security requirements. They already handle highly sensitive data, such as client identity, income sources and other financial information.

    If real estate agents require proof of this info to vet potential rental applicants, they could request it through an authorisation token with the applicant’s bank. This way, proof of identity and financial status could be shared without having to disclose actual sensitive personal information, limiting the cyber security risk.

    In the meantime, rental providers and their agents should request the least possible amount of personal information – it’s the responsible thing to do.

    The article gives the example of the Consumer Data Right, a government standard managed by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). Moataz ElQadi worked previously for the ACCC, in a different team.

    – ref. Renting a home in Australia means handing over too much sensitive info. It’s a national security risk – https://theconversation.com/renting-a-home-in-australia-means-handing-over-too-much-sensitive-info-its-a-national-security-risk-254293

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What’s the difference between Easter egg chocolate and regular chocolate?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Murray, Senior Lecturer, nutrition, Swinburne University of Technology

    Stefanie Mohr Photography/Shutterstock

    With Easter around the corner, you’ll have seen chocolate Easter eggs on supermarket shelves. Maybe you’ve bought some already.

    But is there a difference between Easter chocolate and the everyday kind? Does Easter chocolate really taste better, as some people say?

    As we’ll see, any difference is less about the ingredients and more about how we experience the chocolate when we eat it.

    What do they contain?

    When we compared the ingredients and nutrients of Easter egg chocolate and regular chocolate from the same company, we found no major differences.

    Cadbury Dairy Milk hollow easter egg and Cadbury Dairy Milk chocolate block both contain per 100 gram:

    • about 2,200 kilojoules of energy

    • 7g protein

    • 31g fat

    • 55g sugar

    Both products have a minimum 24% milk solids. The egg has a marginally higher percentage of cocoa solids (28%) than the block (27%).

    So if they contain pretty much the same ingredients, what else is going on?

    It’s more about the taste, texture and smell

    The difference between Easter chocolate and regular chocolate is more about how we experience the flavour of chocolate – via taste, texture and smell.

    Taste is the recognition of simple ingredients dissolving in saliva and entering the taste pores on our tongue. In the case of chocolate, we perceive the taste as sweet (sugar), fatty (cocoa butter) and potentially bitter (caffeine and other cocoa-based compounds).

    However, texture and smell make us most likely to tell the difference between Easter and regular chocolate.

    The mouth is incredibly sensitive to the texture of foods. We perceive multiple physical qualities of a food, which we call “mouthfeel”.

    Smoothness, creaminess and mouthcoating (for example, an oily feeling) are important components of chocolate’s mouthfeel.

    Consumers also expect round-shaped chocolate to be creamier than angular-shape chocolate.

    So even before we’ve taken a bite, we perceive a chocolate egg will be creamier than a block. These expectations can shape how we experience the flavour of chocolate.

    However, if the chocolate egg is not as creamy as expected, this can be disappointing.

    But it tastes so good!
    ibragimova/Shutterstock

    The temperature at which chocolate is made and stored also impacts its texture. Sometimes chocolate gets a whitish haze on its surface called chocolate bloom. This is when the fat and sugar separate from each other, forming fat or sugar crystals.

    It is safe to eat chocolate with bloom, but it may taste less creamy or more gritty than chocolate without bloom.

    Because the demand is so high during Easter, chocolate manufacturers sometimes use rapid-cooling techniques to produce hollow Easter eggs at a faster rate. This may make them more susceptible to chocolate bloom. Cheaper Easter chocolates using these rapid procedures may have a different texture than chocolate made the traditional way.

    Finally, smell contributes the most to how we perceive flavour in foods. When chocolate starts to melt in our mouth, aromas are released. These aromas make their way through the back of the nose where we smell the complex scents and notes of chocolate. Depending on the chocolate, this could include fruity, earthy, buttery or floral aromas.

    The shape of chocolate

    We’ve already heard the shape of chocolate influences how creamy we think it is. But the shape of chocolate also influences other aspects of our eating experience.

    Easter chocolate in the shape of an egg or an animal provides a large contact area inside the mouth meaning it will melt faster than a block. This impacts how quickly aroma compounds are released from the chocolate.

    Biting into hollow chocolate, such as eggs and animals, may also require more time to chew and swallow. This results in Easter chocolate spending longer in our mouths with a greater release of aromas. This means we perceive a greater intensity or diversity of flavours compared to eating small squares.

    Biting into hollow chocolate means a greater release of aromas.
    wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock

    Are you a sucker or a chewer?

    How someone eats chocolate can also change its flavour. One study categorised people who ate chocolate as “suckers” or “chewers”.

    Chewers tend to swallow chocolate more quickly and may perceive it to have a weaker flavour because of the shorter time for aromas to be released.

    So how a person eats Easter chocolate may also impact whether they prefer it over regular chocolate.

    Easter is only once a year

    Last of all, eating Easter eggs (and hunting for them) are often part of a shared family ritual. This can make Easter chocolate seem special. No wonder we enjoy the whole Easter egg experience.

    So whether you are a sucker or a chewer, Easter is a great time to slow down and celebrate with loved ones. Enjoy and savour your Easter chocolate in moderation, egg-shaped or otherwise.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What’s the difference between Easter egg chocolate and regular chocolate? – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-difference-between-easter-egg-chocolate-and-regular-chocolate-252026

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for April 15, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 15, 2025.

    Social media is the new election battleground. Is embracing influencers smart, risky or both?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Grantham, Lecturer in Communication, Griffith University From Abbie Chatfield and Hannah Ferguson to Ozzy Man, influencers have never been more central to an Australian election campaign. Much has been made of the increasingly common site of politicians on TikTok or Instagram reels. Some political groups don’t

    Trump’s tariffs rollercoaster is really about Republican unity
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney After announcing Liberation Day – stiff “retaliatory” tariffs on every country and penguin-inhabited island in the world – US President Donald Trump rescinded the vast majority of tariffs eight days later when stock and bond markets

    Peters emphasises growing importance of NZ’s Pacific ties with the United States
    By Grace Tinetali-Fiavaai, RNZ Pacific journalist in Hawai’i New Zealand’s Pacific connection with the United States is “more important than ever”, says Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters after rounding up the Hawai’i leg of his Pacific trip. Peters said common strategic interests of the US and New Zealand were underlined while in the state. “Our

    Israeli military reservists court Australian universities amid ‘hypocrisy’ over anti-war protests
    Hundreds of university staff and students in Melbourne and Sydney called on their vice-chancellors to cancel pro-Israel events earlier this month, write Michael West Media’s Wendy Bacon and Yaakov Aharon. SPECIAL REPORT: By Wendy Bacon and Yaakov Aharon While Australia’s universities continue to repress pro-Palestine peace protests, they gave the green light to pro-Israel events

    Why the Mormon church is on an expansion project, with 2 secretive new temples planned for Australia
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brenton Griffin, Casual Lecturer and Tutor in History, Indigenous Studies, and Politics, Flinders University The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has announced it will build 15 new temples in countries across the world, including one in Liverpool, New South Wales. This follows a similar announcement

    Winter electricity prices are rising – how do we know we’re getting value for money?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Meade, Adjunct Associate Professor, Griffith University, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith University Shutterstock Winter is coming to New Zealand and Australia, and with it come those inevitably higher power bills from heating our homes. But even without that seasonal spike, household power

    Amid the election promises, what would actually help ‘fix’ the housing crisis? Here’s 5 ideas
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, John Curtin Distinguished Professor & ARC Future Fellow, Curtin University Shutterstock As the election campaign rolls on, housing has been, unsurprisingly, a major campaign focus. We’ve seen a series of housing policy announcements from across the political spectrum, including duelling announcements from the major

    New study finds no evidence technology causes ‘digital dementia’ in older people
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nikki-Anne Wilson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Neuroscience Research Australia (NeuRA), UNSW Sydney RDNE Stock project/Pexels In the 21st century, digital technology has changed many aspects of our lives. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is the latest newcomer, with chatbots and other AI tools changing how we learn and creating

    Amid the election promises, what would actually help ‘fix’ the housing crisis? Here are 5 ideas
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, John Curtin Distinguished Professor & ARC Future Fellow, Curtin University Shutterstock As the election campaign rolls on, housing has been, unsurprisingly, a major campaign focus. We’ve seen a series of housing policy announcements from across the political spectrum, including duelling announcements from the major

    Cutting migrant numbers won’t help housing – the real immigration problems not being tackled this election
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter McDonald, Honorary Professor of Demography, Centre for Health Policy, The University of Melbourne Immigration is shaping as one of the most potent policy issues of the election campaign. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has announced a Coalition government would cut the two major migration programs – permanent

    Focusing on a child’s strengths can transform assessments – and help them thrive after an ADHD or autism diagnosis
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Guastella, Professor and Clinical Psychologist, Michael Crouch Chair in Child and Youth Mental Health, University of Sydney Jota Buyinch Photo/Shutterstock When parents are concerned about their child’s development, they often seek an assessment to address concerns and identify any conditions, such as autism, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder

    Australian honeybees are under attack by mites and beetles. Here’s how to keep your backyard hive safe
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cornelia Sattler, Research Fellow in Ecology & Videographer, Macquarie University Varroa mites on a male bee larva. Theotime Colin Australia’s honeybees are facing an exceptional crisis. The tiny but devastating foreign pest Varroa destructor is steadily spreading across the country. The mite feeds on baby bees (larvae),

    Would looser lending rules help more people buy a house – or just put them at risk?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Grant, Associate Professor in Finance, University of Sydney doublelee/Shutterstock Big promises on housing were at the centre of both major parties’ announcements at the official federal election campaign launches on the weekend. Among the highlights, Labor pledged to build 100,000 new homes and extend a government-guaranteed

    Why is it so hard for everyone to have a house in Australia?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ehsan Noroozinejad, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University Bilalnol/Shutterstock Home ownership in Australia was once regarded as proof of success in life. However, it remains elusive for many people today. Prices have soared beyond wage growth, rents keep rising, and even some well-intentioned government

    Why the Mormon church is on an expansion project, with two secretive new temples planned for Australia
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brenton Griffin, Casual Lecturer and Tutor in History, Indigenous Studies, and Politics, Flinders University The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has announced it will build 15 new temples in countries across the world, including one in Liverpool, New South Wales. This follows a similar announcement

    Owners are officially no longer responsible for tourism accidents on their land – but they never really were
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Peace, Lecturer in Occupational Health and Safety, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington EyesWideOpen/Getty Images Newly announced reforms to the Health and Safety at Work Act mean landowners will no longer be responsible for tourism-related injuries on their properties. But it’s not clear this

    New Zealand’s humanity – does it include all of us, or only for some?
    COMMENTARY: By Katrina Mitchell-Kouttab “Wherever Palestinians have control is barbaric.” These were the words from New Zealand’s Chief Human Rights Commissioner Stephen Rainbow. During a meeting with Philippa Yasbek from Jewish Voices for Peace, Dr Rainbow allegedly told her that information from the NZ Security Intelligence Services (NZSIS) threat assessment asserted that Muslims were the

    Leaked ‘working paper’ on New Caledonia’s political future sparks new concerns
    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk A leaked “working paper” on New Caledonia’s future political status is causing concern on the local stage and has prompted a “clarification” from the French government’s Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls. Details of the document, which was supposed to remain confidential, have been widely circulated online

    Election Diary: Will Peter Dutton help son Harry buy a house?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Political leaders’ kids are routinely put on display to share the glory or the pain of election night. Earlier, they’re often at campaign launches to “humanise” the candidates. Peter Dutton pulled out all stops with the family for his Sunday

    Big Girls Don’t Cry is a powerful, heart-wrenching, and comical celebration of Indigenous resilience and survival
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Case, Lecturer in Musicology, Sydney Conservatorium of Music, University of Sydney Stephen Wilson Barker/Belvoir With Big Girls Don’t Cry, Gumbaynggirr/Wiradjuri playwright Dalara Williams proves herself to be a formidable talent. Cheryl (Williams), Queenie (Megan Wilding) and Lulu (Stephanie Somerville) are three best friends who share a

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Social media is the new election battleground. Is embracing influencers smart, risky or both?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Grantham, Lecturer in Communication, Griffith University

    From Abbie Chatfield and Hannah Ferguson to Ozzy Man, influencers have never been more central to an Australian election campaign.

    Much has been made of the increasingly common site of politicians on TikTok or Instagram reels. Some political groups don’t like it, as don’t some in traditional media.

    But in the first election in which Millennials and Gen Z voters will outnumber Baby Boomers, it’s an inevitable, politically necessary change – though not without its pitfalls.

    A messy scene

    Politics in the social media sphere is already starting to get messy.

    A few weeks ago, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) investigated whether influencer content promoting political messages constitutes electoral advertising.

    The findings suggest it does not, but the AEC has proceeded to ask that this content is accompanied with authorisations.

    Late last week, Independent MP Allegra Spender admitted to commissioning influencer content through a talent agency.

    This doesn’t seem to breach electoral rules, but the lines are being blurred, particularly given the content included glowing remarks about Spender and only suggested they were created “in collaboration”, not as a paid advertisement. This has since been fixed.

    The scrutiny reveals growing discomfort around this emerging form of political communication – including from politicians themselves.

    As influencer Chatfield said:

    there’s this like moral panic about influencers in politics as well, this whole idea influencers can’t be trusted with something as serious and as high brow as politics.

    But is that the case, especially if money has changed hands?

    A politicised sphere

    In what is perhaps a sign of the globally uncertain times, influencing is more political than ever.

    Look at the recent clash involving Holly MacAlpine, who is mounting a legal challenge to the Liberal Party’s social media strategy. She accused them of deliberately editing a clip of her supporting The Greens to make it look like she was instead criticising the party. Last night she launched a crowdfunding campaign for legal representation that reached its goal amount within hours.

    Influencers are becoming more than messengers. They are political actors in their own right.

    In response, TikTok has adjusted its algorithm to recognise political content at the point of upload. The content is now being held for review prior to going live.

    It’s also running an election safety campaign alongside the AEC.

    However, at the time of writing, these guidelines don’t appear on all content that discusses politics or elections. It doesn’t appear to be attached to Australian political content in the same way this style of guideline was used during other events, like COVID.

    Politics with personality

    All this matters because younger generations don’t get their political information from newspapers or nightly news bulletins.

    Instead, they turn to short-form video platforms like TikTok and Instagram Reels, where politics is often delivered with humour, personality, and authenticity (real or perceived).

    The algorithms that drive these platforms reward familiarity and engagement. When a well-known face appears on screen, users linger, boosting the reach of that post. Political messages, even subtle ones, can travel far beyond the original audience.

    Influencers have a lot to contribute to political discourse, particularly in podcasts, but the way they formulate and deliver messages varies widely.

    Some are not explicitly aligned with a political party, while others are transparent about where their preferences sit. How much they affect the election campaign heavily depends on their specific niche and how that relates to broader election commentary.

    Glenn James, host of the Money Money Money podcast and a figure in the personal finance space was recently invited to the budget lock-up. He asked questions about student debt.

    His content sits at the intersection of finance and policy, making it particularly powerful in an election where cost-of-living pressures and education debt are key issues for younger voters.

    It’s an example that not all political influence on social media is overtly partisan. Sometimes, it’s about asking the right questions.

    Reaching eyeballs

    Perhaps influencers’ most significant contribution is not just persuasive power, but reach.

    Their ability to cut through and capture attention is unmatched in today’s fragmented media landscape. In the past, audiences followed specific news outlets aligned with their values.

    Now, thanks to TikTok’s “For You” Page and Instagram Reels’ algorithmic curation, users are increasingly exposed to political content from creators they don’t necessarily follow and would not otherwise encounter.

    Another example is Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s recent use of “delulu with no solulu” (delusional with no solution) in parliament following a dare from podcast Happy Hour with Lucy and Nikki.

    Even though it made no sense to a portion of the population, it gained significant momentum and was trending across platforms.

    Adopting the blueprint

    Influencers aren’t journalists, and most aren’t claiming to be. They’re generally upfront about the fact they’re not wedded to journalistic standards of impartiality, objectivity and holding the powerful to account.

    So in an attempt to ensure traditional media reporting is also noticed by social media users, media outlets are using similar techniques, albeit through a journalistic lens.

    From playing to the algorithm to providing behind the scenes content from the campaign trail, traditional media are solidifying their place in this election commentary and getting noticed.

    It’s a new playing field in political campaigning. But whether it meaningfully shifts voter behaviour, or just adds to the already overwhelmed digital chatter, remains to be seen.

    Susan Grantham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Social media is the new election battleground. Is embracing influencers smart, risky or both? – https://theconversation.com/social-media-is-the-new-election-battleground-is-embracing-influencers-smart-risky-or-both-253537

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s tariffs rollercoaster is really about Republican unity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    After announcing Liberation Day – stiff “retaliatory” tariffs on every country and penguin-inhabited island in the world – US President Donald Trump rescinded the vast majority of tariffs eight days later when stock and bond markets crashed.

    He followed that with more exemptions for phones, computers and computer chips two days later. Ten percent tariffs remain across the board, along with rates up to 145% on China.

    Is Trump aligned with previous Reagan on tariffs?

    As with anything related to Trump, perceptions overwhelm reality. Trump’s showmanship – call him a carnival barker if you must – obfuscates what is really happening.

    Trump is seen as a protectionist and a populist. By comparison, former president Ronald Reagan was seen as a principled free trader and more ideologically conservative. Both images are misleading.

    Reagan slapped tariffs on cars, steel, lumber, computers, computer chips, motorcycles, machine tools, even clothes pins. The great guru of free markets, Milton Friedman, is reported to have said that the Reagan administration has been “making Smoot-Hawley look positively benign.” (Smoot-Hawley was an infamous tariff law enacted in 1930 at the beginning of the Great Depression.)

    Reagan went back and forth on tariffs, even attacking them in a radio address when Japan tried to impose them. At the end of the day, his record on the issue was as mixed as that of any American president.

    Trump’s politics, if not his showmanship, look a lot more like traditional Republican approaches in the cold light of day. The showmanship – provocative statements, grand exaggerations, outright falsehoods and even stand-up-comic-like aspects – is purposeful.

    Keeping Republicans united

    The main goal of Trump’s tariff showmanship, largely unreported in the press, is keeping congressional Republicans unified as he pushes his domestic policy agenda of lower taxes, budget cuts, expanded energy production and tougher immigration policies.

    Congressional Republicans have been working for months on legislating this agenda through the complex budget reconciliation process. This legislative process is difficult and involves passing budget resolutions through the Senate and the House on a specific schedule. This process is required because it allows for a path around the 60-vote filibuster in the Senate. With only 53 Republican senators and a Democratic Party that is committed to resisting Trump on almost every policy choice, Trump needs the reconciliation process to work this year.

    In one sense, all of Trump’s activities since his inauguration – the “waste”-cutting DOGE, spending cuts, ending foreign aid programs, laying off federal workers – have given him the political space with congressional Republicans, particularly fiscal conservatives, to advance his legislative agenda. It is important to know that Congressional Republicans have been ungovernable for quite some time.

    Over the past ten years, there have been five Republican Speakers of the House – John Boehner, Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy, Patrick McHenry (acting) and now Mike Johnson. This unprecedented turnover is caused by a virtually unmanageable Republican coalition of mainstream business-oriented conservatives and the fiscal hawks who generally populate the Freedom Caucus. The Freedom Caucus is more than willing to vote against other Republicans – indeed they are proud of it. Because of this, speaker after speaker has had to reach out to Democrats for votes to pass legislation, ultimately dooming their time in the position.

    Trump has managed to keep this ungovernable group of House Republicans united, and this may be his true political gift.

    To achieve this, he has engaged in a comprehensive campaign of maximum pressure on just about everything: Canada, Greenland, NATO, Europe, China, Ukraine, American universities, federal workers, illegal immigrants, big law firms and even paper straws.

    Congressional Republicans, in appreciation of this shock and awe campaign, have stayed united. This means Trump’s legislative agenda can move forward.

    With his global tariff plan, Trump saw Republicans beginning to defect. In one Senate vote in April, four Republicans sided with Democrats against tariffs on Canada. Senator Ted Cruz warned that Republicans might lose the 2026 election because of tariffs. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the oldest senator and one of the most conservative, indicated he would support bringing tariff authority back to Congress and away from the president.

    Trump can read a room as well as anyone. When he saw Republican unity was at risk because of his tariff plan, he quickly pivoted to a much more moderate version. While Trump’s grandiosity is often highly criticised, it is that quality that gives him the ability to keep his party together, and therefore to govern.

    Sparking panic among Democrats

    The other major effect of Trump’s tariffs strategy is to sow discord among his opponents.

    Democrats, who want to criticise Trump but know their own party has often endorsed tariffs in the past, are reeling. Democratic Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said she understood Trump’s “motivation behind the tariffs” and even agreed with Trump that we “need to make more stuff in America”. She was immediately criticised by fellow Democrats.

    Hakeem Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, tried a slightly more aggressive anti-Trump approach. He said:

    Tariffs, when properly utilized, have a role to play in trying to make sure that you have a competitive environment for our workers and our businesses. That’s not what’s going on right now. This is a reckless economic sledgehammer that Donald Trump and compliant Republicans in the Congress are taking to the economy, and the American people are being hurt enough.

    This response won’t help Democrats climb out of their deep hole of unpopularity, measured last month at an historic low.

    Lester Munson receives funding from the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

    – ref. Trump’s tariffs rollercoaster is really about Republican unity – https://theconversation.com/trumps-tariffs-rollercoaster-is-really-about-republican-unity-254471

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Israeli military reservists court Australian universities amid ‘hypocrisy’ over anti-war protests

    Hundreds of university staff and students in Melbourne and Sydney called on their vice-chancellors to cancel pro-Israel events earlier this month, write Michael West Media’s Wendy Bacon and Yaakov Aharon.

    SPECIAL REPORT: By Wendy Bacon and Yaakov Aharon

    While Australia’s universities continue to repress pro-Palestine peace protests, they gave the green light to pro-Israel events earlier this month, sparking outrage from anti-war protesters over the hypocrisy.

    Israeli lobby groups StandWithUs Australia (SWU) and Israel-IS organised a series of university events this week which featured Israel Defense Force (IDF) reservists who have served during the war in Gaza, two of whom lost family members in the Hamas resistance attack on October 7, 2023.

    The events were promoted as “an immersive VR experience with an inspiring interfaith panel” discussing the importance of social cohesion, on and off campus.”

    Hundreds of staff and students at Monash, Sydney Uni, UNSW and UTS signed letters calling on their universities to “act swiftly to cancel the SWU event and make clear that organisations and individuals who worked with the Israel Defense Forces did not have a place on UNSW campuses.”

    SWU is a global charity organisation which supports Israel and fights all conduct it perceives to be “antisemitic”. It campaigns against the United Nations and international NGOs’ findings against Israel and is currently supporting actions to suspend United States students supporting Palestine.

    It established an office in Sydney in 2022 and Michael Gencher, who previously worked at the NSW Jewish Board of Deputies, was appointed as CEO.

    The event’s co-sponsor, Israel-IS, is a similar propaganda outfit whose mission is to “connect with people before they connect with ideas” particularly through “cutting edge technologies like VR and AI.”

    Among their 18 staff, one employee’s role is “IDF coordinator’” while two employees serve as “heads of Influencer Academy”.

    The events were a test for management at Monash, UTS, UNSW and USyd to see how far each would go in cooperating with the Israel lobby.

    Some events cancelled
     At Monash, an open letter criticising the event was circulated by staff and students. The event was then cancelled without explanation.

    At UNSW, 51 staff and postgraduate students signed an open letter to vice-chancellor Atilla Brungs, calling for the event’s cancellation. It was signed on their behalf by Jessica Whyte, an associate professor of philosophy in arts and law and Noam Peleg, associate professor in the Faculty of Law and Justice.

    Prior to the scheduled event, Michael West Media sent questions to UNSW. After the event was scheduled to occur, the university responded to MWM, informing us that it had not taken place.

    As of today, two days after the event was scheduled, vice-chancellor Brungs has not responded to the letter.

    UTS warning to students
     The UTS branch of the Australasian Union of Jewish Students partnered with Israel-IS in organising the UTS event, in alignment with their core “pillars” of Zionism and activism. The student group seeks to “promote a positive image of Israel on campus” to achieve its vision of a world where Jewish students are committed to Israel.

    UTS Students’ Association, Palestinian Youth Society and UTS Muslim Student Society wrote to management but deputy vice-chancellor Kylie Readman rejected pleas. She replied that the event’s organisers had guaranteed it would be “a small private event focused on minority Israeli perspectives” and that speakers would only speak in a personal capacity.

    While acknowledging the conflict in the Middle East was stressful for many at UTS, she then warned students, “UTS has not received formal notification of any intent to protest, as is required under the campus policy. As such, I must advise that any protest activity planned for 2nd April will be unauthorised. I would urge you to encourage students not to participate in an unauthorised protest.”

    Students who allegedly breach campus policies can face disciplinary proceedings that can lead to suspension.

    UTS Student Association president Mia Campbell told MWM, “The warning given by UTS about protesting definitely felt intimidating and frightening to a number of students, including myself.

    “Especially as a law student, misconduct allegations can affect your admission to the profession . . .  but with all other avenues of communication exhausted between us and the university, it felt like we didn’t have a choice.

    I don’t want to look back on what I was doing during this genocide and have done any less than what was possible at the time.

    A UTS student reads the names of Gaza children killed in Israel’s War on Gaza. Image: Wendy Bacon/MWM

    Sombre, but quietly angry protest
    The UTS protest was sombre but quietly angry. Speakers read from lists naming dead Palestinian children.

    One speaker, who has lost 120 members of his extended family in Gaza, explained why he protested: “We have to be backed into a corner, told we can’t protest, told we can’t do anything. We’ve exhausted every single policy . . . Add to all that we are threatened with misconduct.”

    Do you think we can stay silent while there are people on campus who may have played a part in the killings in Gaza?

    SWU at University of Sydney
     University of Sydney staff and students who signed an open letter received no reply before the event.

    Activists from USyd staff in support of Palestine, Students Against War and Jews Against the Occupation ‘48 began protesting outside the Michael Spence building that houses the university’s senior executives on the Wednesday evening, April 2.

    Escorted by UTS security, three SWU representatives arrived. A small group was admitted. Soon afterwards, the participants could be seen from below in the building’s meeting room.

    A few protesters remained and booed the attendees as they left. These included Mark Leach, a far right Christian Zionist and founder of pro-Israeli group Never Again is Now. Later on X, he condemned the protesters and described Israel as a “multi-ethnic enclave of civilisation.”

    Warning letters for students
    Several student activists have received letters recently warning them about breaching the new USyd code of conduct regulating protests. USyd has also adopted a definition of anti-semitism which critics say could restrict criticism of Israel.

    It has been slammed by the Jewish Council of Australia as “dangerous” and “unworkable”.

    A Jews against Occupation ’48 speaker, Judith Treanor, said, “Welcoming this organisation makes a mockery of this university’s stated values of respect, non-harassment, and anti-racism.

    “In the context of this university’s adoption of draconian measures to stifle freedom of expression in relation to Palestine, the decision to host this event promoting Israel reveals a shocking level of hypocrisy and a huge abuse of power.”

    Jews Against the Occupation ‘48: L-R Suzie Gold, Laurie Izaks MacSween and Judith Treanor at the protest. Image: Vivienne Moore/MWM

    No stranger to USyd
    Michael Gencher is no stranger to USyd. Since October 2023, he has opposed student encampments and street protests.

    On one occasion, he visited the USyd protest student encampment in support of Palestine with Richard Kemp, a retired British army commander who tirelessly promotes the IDF. Kemp’s most recent X post congratulates Hungary for withdrawing from “the International Criminal Kangaroo Court. Other countries should reject this political court and follow suit.”

    Kemp and Gencher filmed themselves attempting to interrogate students about their knowledge of conflict in the Middle East on May 21, 2024, but the students refused to be provoked and declined to engage.

    In May 2024, Gercher helped organise a joint rally at USyd with Zionist Group Together with Israel, a partner of far-right group Australian Jewish Association. Extreme Zionist Ofir Birenbaum, who was recently exposed as covertly filming staff at an inner city cafe, Cairo Takeaway, helped organise the rally.

    Students at the USyd encampment told MWM  that they experienced provocative behaviour towards them during the May rally.

    Opposition to StandWithUs
     Those who oppose the SWU campus events draw on international findings condemning Israel and its IDF, explained in similar letters to university leaders.

    After the USyd event, those who signed a letter received a response from vice-chancellor Mark Scott.

    He explained, “We host a broad range of activities that reflect different perspectives — we recognise our role as a place for debate and disagreeing well, which includes tolerance of varied opinions.”

    His response ignored the concerns raised, which leaves this question: Why are organisations that reject all international and humanitarian legal findings, including ones of genocide and ethnic cleansing,

    being made to feel ‘safe and welcome’ when their critics risk misconduct proceedings?

    SWU CEO Michael Gencher went on the attack in the Jewish press:

    “We’re seeing a coordinated attempt to intimidate universities into silencing Israeli voices simply because they don’t conform to a radical political narrative.” He accused the academics of spreading “provable lies, dangerous rhetoric, and blatant hypocrisy.”

    SWU regards United Nations and other findings against Israel as false.

    Wendy Bacon is an investigative journalist who was professor of journalism at UTS. She worked for Fairfax, Channel Nine and SBS and has published in The Guardian, New Matilda, City Hub and Overland. She has a long history in promoting independent and alternative journalism. She is a long-term supporter of a peaceful BDS and the Greens.

    Yaakov Aharon is a Jewish-Australian living in Wollongong. He enjoys long walks on Wollongong Beach, unimpeded by Port Kembla smoke fumes and AUKUS submarines. This article was first published by Michael West Media and is republished with permission of the authors.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Peters emphasises growing importance of NZ’s Pacific ties with the United States

    By Grace Tinetali-Fiavaai, RNZ Pacific journalist in Hawai’i

    New Zealand’s Pacific connection with the United States is “more important than ever”, says Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters after rounding up the Hawai’i leg of his Pacific trip.

    Peters said common strategic interests of the US and New Zealand were underlined while in the state.

    “Our Pacific links with the United States are more important than ever,” Peters said.

    “New Zealand’s partnership with the United States remains one of our most long standing and important, particularly when seen in the light of our joint interests in the Pacific and the evolving security environment.”

    The Deputy Prime Minister has led a delegation made up of cross-party MPs, who are heading to Fiji for a brief overnight stop, before heading to Vanuatu.

    Peters said the stop in Honolulu allowed for an exchange of ideas and the role New Zealand can play in working with regional partners in the region.

    “We have long advocated for the importance of an active and engaged United States in the Indo-Pacific, and this time in Honolulu allowed us to continue to make that case.”

    Approaching Trump ‘right way’
    The delegation met with Hawai’i’s Governor Josh Green, who confirmed with him that New Zealand was approaching US President Donald Trump in the “right way”.

    “The fact is, this is a massively Democrat state. But nevertheless, they deal with Washington very, very well, and privately, we have got an inside confirmation that our approach is right.

    “Be very careful, these things are very important, words matter and be ultra-cautious. All those things were confirmed by the governor.”

    Governor Green told reporters he had spent time with Trump and talked to the US administration all the time.

    “I can’t guarantee that they will bend their policies, but I try to be very rational for the good of our state, in our region, and it seems to be so far working,” he said.

    He said the US and New Zealand were close allies.

    “So having these additional connections with the political leadership and people from the community and business leaders, it helps us, because as we move forward in somewhat uncertain times, having more friends helps.”

    At the East-West Center in Honolulu, Peters said New Zealand and the United States had not always seen eye-to-eye and “US Presidents have not always been popular back home”.

    “My view of the strategic partnership between New Zealand and the United States is this: we each have the right, indeed the imperative, to pursue our own foreign policies, driven by our own sense of national interest.”

    The delegation also met the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo, the interim president of the East-West Center Dr James Scott, and Hawai’i-based representatives for Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Religious News: Statement – Shincheonji Church of Jesus France calls out Major French Daily Newspaper for its “biased” and “slanderous” reporting

    Source: Shincheonji Church of Jesus

    STATEMENT: The church announced its official position that Le Parisien distorted facts about Shincheonji France in an article published last week, only quoting speculative statements from someone who left the church. On the other hand the church’s statement made up only two lines of the report, barely reflecting the actual state of the faith community.

    The article was titled “They Treated Us Like Animals” and defined Shincheonji Church of Jesus as one of the “problematic evangelical groups” in France based on the personal testimony of an anonymous former member.

    Shincheonji France says, “the reputation of the church and its members has been seriously damaged”, with the article mentioning training camps, severing relationships, and demands for money.

    But a church official criticized, “We faithfully submitted thousands of characters of written responses to the 12 questions the reporter had sent us in advance, but only two sentences were reflected in the main text of the article,” and “This is less than 1% of the total responses, which seriously limited the opportunity to convey a balanced perspective to readers.”

    They also said, “Considering that the report was published just four hours after the responses were sent to the reporter, we could tell that it was a one-sided, targeted, slanderous article.”

    They continued, “If the written response was insufficient, they (the reporter) could have visited the actual church to check the religious scene and directly heard the voices of the current believers,” adding, “the church is always ready to respond to open communication with the media.”

    The church also provided heart-felt testimonies from believers who are currently practicing their faith at Shincheonji Church of Jesus.

    Teresa (29), who has been attending the church in Paris for six years, said, “Faith is something that is done voluntarily. Here, I came to know God properly and learned how to act as a person of God and shine in the world.”

    Another believer, Axel (30), said, “Before coming to Shincheonji Church, I was looking for the meaning of my life. Since I started believing in Shincheonji Church, I was able to realize what God wants, and I love doing God’s work. While doing my mission, I was able to go on trips that I like, and I was able to meet my wife at church. I am living a truly satisfying life.”

    Even the title of the article itself sparked shock and embarrassment amongst the members, stating, “no one has ever been treated like that, and we do not think that way. It was just used as a sensational article title to attract attention”.
    “In reality, we do not allow threats or stigmatization of those who have left the church, and a culture has been established that respects individual choices even after leaving the church.”

    The church also refuted the claim that the former member “broke up with her boyfriend because of the church’s request,” saying, “It is not true.”

    “The man in question (boyfriend) was a believer who attended the church with her at the time, and I understand that he wanted to get married. However, the woman said that she had no intention of getting married right away. The breakup was a decision made based on conversation between the parties and their personal religious concerns, and the church never induced or forced any choice.”

    They emphasized that “dating and marriage are personal areas based on autonomy and responsibility, and it is not true to link this to the church’s control.”

    The church also took issue with the fact that the article included situations that the interviewee had not actually experienced.

    There was a photo used in the report of a person putting their feet on a radiator, and it was referred to as “corporal punishment”, but the photo had nothing to do with corporal punishment and was taken before the interviewee entered the church.

    “The person in the photo is a man who is still a believer in the church, and at the time, he did that pose thinking that it was okay, and someone else took the picture for fun”, the church said.

    The man in the photo was shocked to see it being used and plans to file an official complaint about it being used without his consent and for misconstruing its intention. 

    The church stated, “It is very regrettable that the media cited and reported this statement without fact-checking, as it may give readers the biased perception that the entire Shincheonji Church of Jesus is an abnormal organization.”

    Regarding the “training camp” mentioned in the article, the church explained, “the program was a short-term training program that some missionaries who hoped for religious growth participated in 100% voluntarily.”

    “It consisted of morning prayers, meditation on the word and the person could stop the camp at any time. There was no physical punishment or coercion.”

    “However, we are aware that there is room for misunderstanding from an outside perspective, and we are currently not operating the program.”

    Regarding claims of collecting personal information, restricting internet use, and inducing severance of family relationships, the church stated, “This is completely untrue, and we do not collect anything other than the minimum information required for religious counseling.”

    They emphasized, “We have never restricted internet use or external relationships, and rather, we encourage our members to live exemplary lives in their families and society.”

    The report also accused Shincheonji France of using a false name, ECA Academy. But the church explained, “It was the name of a Bible education program temporarily used in 2019, and at the beginning of the class, we clearly informed that we were affiliated with Shincheonji Church of Jesus, and after that, the decision to join the church was completely up to the individual’s discretion.”

    The church further requests media to;

    -Carry out comprehensive coverage that reflects various perspectives and experiences, and sufficiently reflects the church’s official position and responses

    -Provide fair reporting on the actual experiences and voices of currently active members

    -Establish a reporting culture that respects religious freedom and the dignity of believers, and

    -Refrain from promoting prejudice through provocative expressions and titles.

    Church officials emphasized, “Biased reporting on a specific religion or religious community can result in imposing stigma and prejudice on good believers and undermining religious freedom and human rights,” and “the media should contain diverse voices based on balanced information and mutual respect, rather than provocative approaches that induce hatred.”

    They continued, “We hope that all media, including Le Parisien, will maintain higher ethical standards and balance in religious reporting, and Shincheonji Church of Jesus will continue to do its best to help correct understanding through transparent communication and open dialogue.”

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why the Mormon church is on an expansion project, with 2 secretive new temples planned for Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brenton Griffin, Casual Lecturer and Tutor in History, Indigenous Studies, and Politics, Flinders University

    The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has announced it will build 15 new temples in countries across the world, including one in Liverpool, New South Wales.

    This follows a similar announcement last year of plans to build a second temple for Queensland, in South Brisbane.

    The two new structures – together with existing temples in Sydney (1984), Adelaide (2000), Melbourne (2000), Perth (2001) and Brisbane (2003) – will bring the total number of Australian temples to seven.

    In a nation with fewer than 160,000 practising Mormons, these new buildings seek to increase the legitimacy and visibility of the church.

    The Melbourne temple was erected in 2000, as was the temple in Adelaide.
    Wikimedia

    The significance of temples

    There are currently at least 200 completed Mormon temples around the globe, with an additional 182 under construction or announced.

    Temples have a different purpose and scope to Mormon chapels, which are far more common: Australia has about 190 Mormon chapels.

    Chapels are used for weekly sacrament (or communion) and weekly sermons. They are open to visitors, and often hold cultural events, extra church activities and family history centres.

    Temples, on the other hand, represent the blending of the divine and temporal. According to the Mormon worldview and doctrines, they are the world’s most sacred structures.

    Each temple is emblazoned with the phrase “The House of the Lord, Holiness to the Lord”. This isn’t just symbolic. Mormons believe each temple is literally the house of God, in which his presence may be felt.

    Given the gravity of this belief, these spaces are reserved for those who have been deemed worthy to enter by Mormon leaders.

    Inside the House of the Lord

    The church itself maintains that temples are “sacred, not secret”. It has long worked to dispel speculation over what happens within temple bounds.

    One way it does this is through “open houses”, in which a newly-built temple may be toured by anyone for a brief period. Once the open house has ended and the temple has been “dedicated” by a church leader – a process that includes blessing the building and those who will use it – it becomes entirely closed to the public.

    Within the temples, the most sacred rituals and knowledge of “the gospel” are imparted upon faithful members. Rituals can be performed for both living people and deceased ancestors. They must never be conducted – or even discussed – outside the sacred temple space.

    One of these rituals is baptism and confirmation for the dead by proxy (baptisms for the living are conducted in chapels or other spaces). This provides the deceased individuals “ordinances” that are necessary for salvation, which they did not receive during life.

    These baptisms have been controversial at times, with ordinances performed on individuals who were not direct ancestors of Latter-day Saints, including Holocaust victims and historical figures such as Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler. Even prominent Australians such as Ned Kelly, Malcolm Fraser, Neville Bonner and Truganini have allegedly appeared as “baptised” in Mormon records.

    Other temple ceremonies, conducted for both the dead and living, include washing and anointing with oil, “endowment” and “sealing”.

    The rituals are accompanied by various stages of knowledge progression for attendees. As with the rituals, temple knowledge is not to be discussed outside.

    Local opposition

    The air of secrecy and exclusivity surrounding Mormon temples has resulted in a flood of negative attention from Australian media, other religious institutions and society at large. News reports from as far back as the early 20th century sought to expose “Mormon temple secrets”.

    The first temple, built in Sydney in 1984, was widely protested by community groups and organisations. The building had to be modified by the church before it was eventually approved. A similar situation transpired in Brisbane in the early 2000s.

    In other cities, such as Adelaide and Melbourne, temples were not directly protested, but were still critiqued for their lavishness, with the average Australian temple costing around A$8 million in the late 1990s/early 2000s.

    Given the cost of living crisis, and contention over the place of religion in contemporary Australia, the two proposed temples will likely also face criticism.

    Reputational management

    The church’s reputation in Australia has become ever more complicated over the past 20 years, not least due to several controversies.

    In 2022 and 2023, The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald reported the church was allegedly abusing tax laws, to the amount of hundreds of millions of dollars. This was addressed, but not confirmed or denied, in the November 2022 Senate Estimates by Australian Tax Office Assistant Commissioner Jeremy Hirschhorn, after questioning by Greens Senator David Shoebridge. Accusations of tax evasion have also been made in New Zealand and the United States.

    Other controversies relate to LGBTQIA+ discrimination, the church’s influence in Australian and global politics, and allegations resulting from the Royal Commission into child sexual abuse.

    The new Australian temples will be completed under a pall of critiques and accusations around church finances and other controversies. And while they might be briefly open to the public, their doors will just as quickly shut – adding more fuel to the speculation.

    Brenton Griffin was raised as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, but is no longer a practising member of the church. His current research is focused on the religion’s place in Australian and New Zealand popular culture, politics, and society from the nineteenth century to present.

    – ref. Why the Mormon church is on an expansion project, with 2 secretive new temples planned for Australia – https://theconversation.com/why-the-mormon-church-is-on-an-expansion-project-with-2-secretive-new-temples-planned-for-australia-254217

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Winter electricity prices are rising – how do we know we’re getting value for money?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Meade, Adjunct Associate Professor, Griffith University, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith University

    Shutterstock

    Winter is coming to New Zealand and Australia, and with it come those inevitably higher power bills from heating our homes.

    But even without that seasonal spike, household power bills were already set to rise by NZ$10 to $25 a month in New Zealand and up to A$9 a month in parts of Australia.

    This is not, as some might assume, because electricity suppliers are acting uncompetitively. It’s because regulators are increasing charges for long-distance electricity transmission (pylons and substations) and short-distance distribution (poles and wires).

    Those charges together make up around 40% of power bills on average, so the price increases matter. In New Zealand, an average 15% of household budgets is spent on electricity. The proportion going towards those infrastructure costs is higher for low-income, regional and rural households.

    To put this another way, these fixed parts of our power bills can equal what a typical household spends on mobile phones, public transport or water services.

    Transmission and distribution services are regulated because they are provided by monopolies. Regulators such as the Commerce Commission in New Zealand and the Australian Energy Regulator in eastern Australia try to set reasonable prices while still allowing those firms enough money to provide reliable services.

    However, this old regulatory model is being challenged by changing consumer behaviour. Households are increasingly electrifying, switching to heat pumps for space and water heating, and electric vehicles (EVs) for personal transport.

    Regulators want to ensure the reliability of electricity supply doesn’t significantly decline. But households that rely on electricity want greater reliability – especially with growing demand for “smart” appliances that can be damaged by outages.

    Quality versus quantity

    Unfortunately, history is a poor guide to how regulation should ensure these future reliability needs are met. Furthermore, electricity is an unusual “product” – the quantity we consume is often an afterthought, while the affordability and quality of supply are more top of mind.

    Importantly, quality means much more to consumers than just reliability. It includes how well outages are planned and communicated, how easy it is to get help and updates when things go wrong, new connection times, and the voltage stability modern appliances require.

    What constitutes good service might also include customer charters or other guarantees of minimum acceptable expectations, as well as compensation schemes.

    Beyond these options, however, the very basis for regulation is being upturned as households invest in rooftop solar panels, home batteries and electric vehicles (EVs). The competition offered by these new technologies means distribution companies are no longer monopoly providers because households can get electricity in new ways.

    This also means households expect new services from those providers – such as being able to sell electricity to others (including to distribution companies themselves to help them maintain reliable supply).

    Smart appliances, solar power and EVs are all changing consumer expectations of the electricity market.
    Shutterstock

    What customers really want

    Historically, electricity regulation has responded to emerging challenges like these with “bolt-on” solutions. Each one tries to address a specific issue individually, but not in a coherent and joined-up way.

    Overall, how and why we regulate electricity transmission and distribution need rethinking from the ground up, not more rounds of regulatory whack-a-mole. Consumer preferences need to be more than a vague overriding objective. They need to be at the heart of regulation.

    New Zealand’s Commerce Commission already exempts many distribution firms from much regulation because they are owned and governed by customers. And regulators in other English-speaking countries, including Australia, increasingly rely on consumer forums and other channels to indirectly and only partially identify consumer preferences.

    But neither model obtains directly usable information about what consumers want – from those consumers themselves. Unsurprisingly, customer preferences are not widely or systematically reflected in regulation.

    Besides, asking customers about quality and reliability of service assumes they can clearly articulate what they care about and what value they attach to them in ways regulators can use.

    Value for money

    One solution is to use a direct measure of consumer satisfaction. We developed and applied a version of this in recent research involving a survey of Swedish electricity customers.

    We measured satisfaction by asking consumers to rate the “value for money” they perceived from their distribution firm, ranging from zero (lowest) to five (highest).

    Perceptions of quality can vary and are inherently subjective. But value for money can be interpreted as a ratio of quality to price: higher quality means higher value for money, higher price means lower value for money. From this, we obtained an objective measure of overall customer satisfaction levels.

    As might be expected, we found value for money tended to be higher for customers of distribution firms owned and controlled by those customers. But directly measuring customer satisfaction in this way could be a good basis for regulation reform in general.

    We still need to better understand how customer satisfaction is affected by regulatory decisions. This has always been the case, but it is especially true now that fundamental changes are happening in the sector.

    Electricity customers heading into winter might be happier with rising transmission and distribution prices if they were confident regulation genuinely improved their overall value for money.

    Business as usual, on the other hand, may offer them only cold comfort.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Winter electricity prices are rising – how do we know we’re getting value for money? – https://theconversation.com/winter-electricity-prices-are-rising-how-do-we-know-were-getting-value-for-money-254198

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why the Mormon church is on an expansion project, with two secretive new temples planned for Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brenton Griffin, Casual Lecturer and Tutor in History, Indigenous Studies, and Politics, Flinders University

    The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has announced it will build 15 new temples in countries across the world, including one in Liverpool, New South Wales.

    This follows a similar announcement last year of plans to build a second temple for Queensland, in South Brisbane.

    The two new structures – together with existing temples in Sydney (1984), Adelaide (2000), Melbourne (2000), Perth (2001) and Brisbane (2003) – will bring the total number of Australian temples to seven.

    In a nation with fewer than 160,000 practising Mormons, these new buildings seek to increase the legitimacy and visibility of the church.

    The Melbourne temple was erected in 2000, as was the temple in Adelaide.
    Wikimedia

    The significance of temples

    There are currently at least 200 completed Mormon temples around the globe, with an additional 182 under construction or announced.

    Temples have a different purpose and scope to Mormon chapels, which are far more common: Australia has about 190 Mormon chapels.

    Chapels are used for weekly sacrament (or communion) and weekly sermons. They are open to visitors, and often hold cultural events, extra church activities and family history centres.

    Temples, on the other hand, represent the blending of the divine and temporal. According to the Mormon worldview and doctrines, they are the world’s most sacred structures.

    Each temple is emblazoned with the phrase “The House of the Lord, Holiness to the Lord”. This isn’t just symbolic. Mormons believe each temple is literally the house of God, in which his presence may be felt.

    Given the gravity of this belief, these spaces are reserved for those who have been deemed worthy to enter by Mormon leaders.

    Inside the House of the Lord

    The church itself maintains that temples are “sacred, not secret”. It has long worked to dispel speculation over what happens within temple bounds.

    One way it does this is through “open houses”, in which a newly-built temple may be toured by anyone for a brief period. Once the open house has ended and the temple has been “dedicated” by a church leader – a process that includes blessing the building and those who will use it – it becomes entirely closed to the public.

    Within the temples, the most sacred rituals and knowledge of “the gospel” are imparted upon faithful members. Rituals can be performed for both living people and deceased ancestors. They must never be conducted – or even discussed – outside the sacred temple space.

    One of these rituals is baptism and confirmation for the dead by proxy (baptisms for the living are conducted in chapels or other spaces). This provides the deceased individuals “ordinances” that are necessary for salvation, which they did not receive during life.

    These baptisms have been controversial at times, with ordinances performed on individuals who were not direct ancestors of Latter-day Saints, including Holocaust victims and historical figures such as Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler. Even prominent Australians such as Ned Kelly, Malcolm Fraser, Neville Bonner and Truganini have allegedly appeared as “baptised” in Mormon records.

    Other temple ceremonies, conducted for both the dead and living, include washing and anointing with oil, “endowment” and “sealing”.

    The rituals are accompanied by various stages of knowledge progression for attendees. As with the rituals, temple knowledge is not to be discussed outside.

    Local opposition

    The air of secrecy and exclusivity surrounding Mormon temples has resulted in a flood of negative attention from Australian media, other religious institutions and society at large. News reports from as far back as the early 20th century sought to expose “Mormon temple secrets”.

    The first temple, built in Sydney in 1984, was widely protested by community groups and organisations. The building had to be modified by the church before it was eventually approved. A similar situation transpired in Brisbane in the early 2000s.

    In other cities, such as Adelaide and Melbourne, temples were not directly protested, but were still critiqued for their lavishness, with the average Australian temple costing around A$8 million in the late 1990s/early 2000s.

    Given the cost of living crisis, and contention over the place of religion in contemporary Australia, the two proposed temples will likely also face criticism.

    Reputational management

    The church’s reputation in Australia has become ever more complicated over the past 20 years, not least due to several controversies.

    In 2022 and 2023, The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald reported the church was allegedly abusing tax laws, to the amount of hundreds of millions of dollars. This was addressed, but not confirmed or denied, in the November 2022 Senate Estimates by Australian Tax Office Assistant Commissioner Jeremy Hirschhorn, after questioning by Greens Senator David Shoebridge. Accusations of tax evasion have also been made in New Zealand and the United States.

    Other controversies relate to LGBTQIA+ discrimination, the church’s influence in Australian and global politics, and allegations resulting from the Royal Commission into child sexual abuse.

    The new Australian temples will be completed under a pall of critiques and accusations around church finances and other controversies. And while they might be briefly open to the public, their doors will just as quickly shut – adding more fuel to the speculation.

    Brenton Griffin was raised as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, but is no longer a practising member of the church. His current research is focused on the religion’s place in Australian and New Zealand popular culture, politics, and society from the nineteenth century to present.

    – ref. Why the Mormon church is on an expansion project, with two secretive new temples planned for Australia – https://theconversation.com/why-the-mormon-church-is-on-an-expansion-project-with-two-secretive-new-temples-planned-for-australia-254217

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why is it so hard for everyone to have a house in Australia?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ehsan Noroozinejad, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University

    Bilalnol/Shutterstock

    Home ownership in Australia was once regarded as proof of success in life. However, it remains elusive for many people today.

    Prices have soared beyond wage growth, rents keep rising, and even some well-intentioned government initiatives, including those announced by Labor and the Coalition at their election campaign launches on the weekend, risk driving up demand.

    What’s gone wrong?

    The Grattan Institute says increasing housing supply is essential to maintain price stability over time, but notes we are not making enough progress.

    Australia will miss its goal to build 1.2 million new homes within five years if we stick to the current housing policies and construction practices.

    Why it’s not working

    There is a wide range of reasons why Australia is failing to provide enough housing:

    Fragmented policy approach: A national approach involving all levels of government aligning their policies, rules and regulations is needed.

    Planning bottlenecks: Some projects face years of delay due to local council regulations and zoning requirements. The Productivity Commission has reported Australia’s planning system has excessive barriers to new projects, including medium-density developments.

    Land release delays: State governments are slow to release new land for housing. This is often because of community opposition, political considerations and market dynamics. This results in limited availability, which leads to higher costs for land that can be developed.

    Skills shortages: Recent immigration restrictions have worsened the shortage of skilled tradespeople in the residential construction sector.

    Demand-side subsidies: Government programs, such as first home buyer grants, help some people buy homes. However, they also make housing less affordable because they can result in increased prices.

    What could work without raising prices

    There are various changes that could be made without necessarily raising prices.

    Duplication and logjams could be removed if a national housing strategy was introduced. This should integrate policies and regulations across federal, state and local jurisdictions.

    Federal grants and incentives should be tied to states meeting targets for land release, re-zoning permits and streamlined approvals.

    Using innovative construction technologies can cut construction time by as much as 50%. These include prefabricated and modular building parts, which are made in factories and later assembled at the construction site.

    A government update of land use and zoning permits would make it easier and faster to build medium-density housing near transport and job hubs. This is a quick way to add dwellings without sprawl.

    Governments could also offer tax or planning concessions for developments that lock in affordable rents. This would help create stable, long-term rental options.

    Learning from other countries

    Australia can get ideas for increasing housing supply without raising prices from the experience of other countries.

    Through substantial investments in social housing, Finland has significantly reduced homelessness and created stable housing options for families with limited income.

    Large-scale prefab public housing originated in Singapore decades ago as a method to accelerate construction timelines and reduce expenses. Prefabrication is only used in 8% of projects in Australia at the moment.

    Prefabrication is widely used in building sectors in other countries as a cheaper and faster way of responding to housing shortages.
    brizmaker/Shutterstock

    Sweden has adopted advanced modular construction techniques, which result in 80% of homes being built off-site.

    Germany employs municipal-led housing associations along with rent controls to maintain price stability and tenant protection.

    And in the UK, inclusionary zoning regulations mandate that new developments either contain affordable housing units or contribute to a fund that supports affordable housing in different locations. This helps create diverse housing options in most neighborhoods.

    Election promises versus real change

    Significant reforms are needed – not election sweeteners. To make genuine progress, we need to invest heavily in modern construction techniques, transform housing approval processes and ensure states promptly release essential land.

    The solution requires a coordinated response from federal, state and local governments. This would enable more Australians to obtain homeownership and secure rental options.

    Our politicians must avoid short-term promises during elections because these threaten to return us to the destructive pattern of escalating prices and dissatisfied homebuyers. Long-term policy reform is what we need.

    Dr. Ehsan Noroozinejad has received funding from both national and international organisations to support research addressing housing and climate crises. His most recent funding on integrated housing and climate policy comes from the James Martin Institute for Public Policy (soon to be the Australian Public Policy Institute).

    – ref. Why is it so hard for everyone to have a house in Australia? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-hard-for-everyone-to-have-a-house-in-australia-254464

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Would looser lending rules help more people buy a house – or just put them at risk?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Grant, Associate Professor in Finance, University of Sydney

    doublelee/Shutterstock

    Big promises on housing were at the centre of both major parties’ announcements at the official federal election campaign launches on the weekend.

    Among the highlights, Labor pledged to build 100,000 new homes and extend a government-guaranteed 5% deposit scheme to all first home buyers. The Coalition promised to make interest payments on the first A$650,000 of a mortgage tax-deductible for up to five years, for eligible first home buyers purchasing new builds.

    Amid this flurry of policies, it’s important we don’t forget another Coalition promise from earlier this month – lowering the 3% mortgage serviceability “buffer”.

    Promising to help would-be homebuyers without access to the “bank of mum and dad”, the policy aims to make loans easier to get amid high interest rates and house prices. But it has also reignited debate over lending regulation.

    What exactly does this buffer do, and what might we lose by lowering it?

    Protecting banks and borrowers

    Mortgage buffers are a risk management tool, regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA).

    When banks assess a home loan, they don’t just check if you can repay it at today’s rate. They test whether you could still afford it if interest rates were higher.

    Suppose a borrower in Sydney takes out a mortgage of $780,000 (around the average loan size). At a 6% interest rate, the monthly repayments over 30 years would be about $4,672.

    Under the current serviceability buffer – three percentage points – banks assess whether this prospective borrower could still afford repayments if interest rates rose to 9%, which would increase their monthly repayments to around $6,270.

    This buffer doesn’t increase the price the borrower actually pays. It simply ensures they have the capacity to service higher repayments if conditions worsen.

    The last time mortgage rates were above 9% for an extended period (1996), Peter Dutton was in the Queensland Police Service, the Swans had lost the AFL Grand Final, and Oasis were about to cancel their Australian tour. Could history repeat itself?



    Read more:
    Labor and Coalition support for new home buyers welcome but other Australians also struggling with housing affordability

    Why lower it?

    APRA increased the serviceability buffer from 2.5% to 3% in late 2021. But at the time, Australia’s cash rate was very low, at just 0.1%. It’s now 4.1%.

    Critics argue the buffer has become too restrictive now that rates are higher, locking out first home buyers and those without parental financial help.

    The buffer can also act as a barrier to refinancing. Those who qualified for a loan when interest rates were low may no longer meet serviceability requirements under higher rates. Research suggests that removing refinancing barriers can reduce loan defaults and support household spending.

    The risks

    There are good reasons for the measures we have to protect borrowers from future shocks.

    Reducing the buffer allows more borrowers to qualify for the same loan. But it also means there’s less built-in protection against future rate rises.

    Research shows the risk of a borrower defaulting on their mortgage increases sharply when their loan-to-value ratio – the amount borrowed divided by the property’s purchase price – is above 75%, or where a borrower is spending two-thirds of their income on the mortgage.

    But buffers also need to be set carefully, ensuring they don’t unnecessarily lock out creditworthy borrowers.

    The mortgage serviceability buffer is designed to protect borrowers from sudden financial shocks.
    doublelee/Shutterstock

    Help for first home buyers?

    When considered together with the Coalition’s additional policies – to allow first home buyers to withdraw up to $50,000 from their superannuation for a home deposit and deduct mortgage payments from their taxable income – the implications become clearer.

    Economic theory suggests that combined, such measures would move more borrowers closer to the margin of affordability.

    Many would likely take on the maximum debt they could qualify for, leaving them highly exposed if economic or interest rate conditions deteriorate.

    And the very borrowers likely to rely on superannuation withdrawals to fund their deposits are also those with limited savings and potentially high loan-to-value ratios. The borrowers most affected by the barrier are therefore among the most vulnerable to repayment stress.

    What about house prices?

    There’s the obvious question of what reducing the barriers to borrowing would do to house prices, without a corresponding increase in supply.

    Research has shown stricter borrower-level constraints are effective in slowing house price growth, especially during periods of rapid credit expansion.

    These policies are most effective when targeted toward high-risk borrower groups such as first home buyers or those with high loan-to-valuation ratios.

    Some economists argue buffers need not be static. Instead, they could be tightened during booms to prevent the housing market overheating, and eased during tougher times to avoid cutting off credit unnecessarily.

    So, should we lower the buffer?

    Serviceability buffers aren’t just bureaucratic hurdles. They are an unseen brake on unsustainable borrowing and a cushion against future shocks.

    Borrower constraints don’t only reduce default risk – research shows they also redistribute credit more efficiently, shifting it away from overheated urban markets and toward lower-risk borrowers.

    The first cut to the cash rate in nearly five years has eased Australian mortgage stress risk in the short term. With renewed borrowing appetite, the role of buffers becomes even more critical.

    Removing them may help more people into homes in the short run, but it comes at the risk of greater pain later.

    Andrew Grant has previously received funding from the Australian Institute of Credit Management and illion (Experian).

    – ref. Would looser lending rules help more people buy a house – or just put them at risk? – https://theconversation.com/would-looser-lending-rules-help-more-people-buy-a-house-or-just-put-them-at-risk-253658

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –