NewzIntel.com

Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why did Israel defy Trump – and risk a major war – by striking Iran now? And what happens next?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University; and Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow, Victoria University

    Alarmed by an intelligence assessment that Iran will be able to produce nuclear weapons within months if not weeks, Israel has launched a massive air campaign aiming to destroy the country’s nuclear program.

    Israel’s air strikes hit Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz, as well as its air defences and long-range missile facilities.

    Among the dead are Hossein Salami, the chief of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps; Mohammad Bagheri, the commander-in-chief of the military; and two prominent nuclear scientists.

    Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised “severe punishment” in response. Iran could potentially target Israel’s own nuclear sites and US bases across the Persian Gulf. Israel claimed Iran launched 100 drones towards it just hours after the attack.

    The Middle East is yet again on the precipice of a potentially devastating war with serious regional and global implications.

    Stalled nuclear talks

    The Israeli operations come against the backdrop of a series of inconclusive nuclear talks between the United States and Iran. These negotiations began in mid-April at President Donald Trump’s request and aimed to reach a deal within months.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposed the talks, pressing for military action instead as the best option to halt Iran’s nuclear program.

    The diplomatic efforts had stalled in recent weeks over Trump’s demand that Iran agree to a zero-uranium enrichment posture and destroy its stockpile of some 400 kilograms of enriched uranium at a 60% purity level. This could be rapidly enriched further to weapons-grade level.

    Tehran refused to oblige, calling it a “non-negotiable”.

    Netanyahu has long pledged to eliminate what he has called the Iranian “octopus” – the regime’s vast network of regional affiliates, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the regime of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, and the Houthi militants in Yemen.

    Following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 2023, Israel’s military has considerably degraded these Iranian affiliates, one by one. Now, Netanyahu has now gone for beheading the octopus.

    Trump keeping his distance

    Netanyahu has in the past urged Washington to join him in a military operation against Iran. However, successive US leaders have not found it desirable to ignite or be involved in another Middle East war, especially after the debacle in Iraq and its failed Afghanistan intervention.

    Despite his strong commitment to Israel’s security and regional supremacy, Trump has been keen to follow this US posture, for two important reasons.

    He has not forgotten Netanyahu’s warm congratulations to Joe Biden when he defeated Trump in the 2020 US presidential election.

    Nor has Trump been keen to be too closely aligned with Netanyahu at the expense of his lucrative relations with oil-rich Arab states. He recently visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on a trip to the Middle East, while bypassing Israel.

    Indeed, this week, Trump had warned Netanyahu not to do anything that could undermine the US nuclear talks with Iran. He has been keen to secure a deal to boost his self-declared reputation as a peace broker, despite not having done very well so far on this front.

    But as the nuclear talks seemed to be reaching a dead end, Netanyahu decided now was the moment to act.

    The Trump administration has distanced itself from the attack, saying it had no involvement. It remains to be seen whether the US will now get involved to defend Israel if and when Iran retaliates.

    What a wider war could mean

    Israel has shown it has the capacity to unleash overwhelming firepower, causing serious damage to Iran’s nuclear and military facilities and infrastructure. But the Iranian Islamic regime also has the capability to retaliate, with all the means at its disposal.

    Despite the fact the Iranian leadership faces serious domestic issues on political, social and economic fronts, it still has the ability to target Israeli and US assets in the region with advanced missiles and drones.

    It also has the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20–25% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments flow. Importantly, Iran has strategic partnerships with both Russia and China, as well.

    Depending on the nature and scope of the Iranian response, the current conflict could easily develop into an uncontrollable regional war, with none of the parties emerging as victor. A major conflict could not only further destabilise what is already a volatile Middle East, but also upend the fragile global geopolitical and economic landscape.

    The Middle East cannot afford another war. Trump had good reasons to restrain Netanyahu’s government while the nuclear negotiations were taking place to see if he could hammer out a deal.

    Whether this deal can be salvaged amid the chaos is unclear. The next round of negotiations was due to be held on Sunday in Oman, but Iran said it would not attend and all talks were off until further notice.

    Iran and the US, under Barack Obama, had agreed a nuclear deal before – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Although Netanyahu branded it “the worst deal of the century”, it appeared to be holding until Trump, urged by Netanyahu, unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018.

    Now, Netanyahu has taken the military approach to thwart Iran’s nuclear program. And the region – and rest of the world – will have to wait and see if another war can be averted before it’s too late.

    Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why did Israel defy Trump – and risk a major war – by striking Iran now? And what happens next? – https://theconversation.com/why-did-israel-defy-trump-and-risk-a-major-war-by-striking-iran-now-and-what-happens-next-258917

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What do we know about the Air India crash? How did one man survive? What now? An aviation safety expert explains

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Guido Carim Junior, Senior Lecturer in Aviation, Griffith University

    The back of Air India flight 171 after it crashed into a residential building in Ahmedabad. Sam Panthaky / AFP via Getty Images

    An Air India flight crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad in northwest India on Thursday afternoon local time, killing more than 260 people.

    The Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, Flight AI171, was carrying 242 people bound for London. Only one passenger, a British man, survived.

    The plane crashed less than a minute after takeoff, coming down on top of a college hostel around 1.5 kilometres from the runway. Little is known so far about the cause of the incident.

    As an aviation safety expert, it is hard to avoid a sense of disbelief that an event such as this – involving one of the most advanced passenger jets in the world, built on the lessons of many earlier accidents – could happen in the 21st century.

    Trouble after takeoff

    Air crashes such as this one, in which a plane experiences trouble immediately after takeoff, are now extremely rare. They were more common in the past.

    In one infamous 1999 incident, 32 people died when LAPA Flight 3142 crashed during takeoff from Buenos Aires. During the accident investigation, it emerged that the Boeing 737’s wing flaps had not been in the right position for takeoff and the crew had ignored alarms from the plane’s internal warning system.

    The 2009 emergency landing of US Airways Flight 1549 on New York’s Hudson River also occurred shortly after takeoff. In that case, the problem was quite different: a collision with a flock of Canada geese shut down both engines, leading to a powerless aircraft.

    However, the aviation industry puts a lot of resources into learning from accidents so they don’t happen again. LAPA Flight 3142 led to recommended improvements in pilot training and flight procedures. The rules for engine design were changed after the “miracle on the Hudson”.

    So whatever caused the Air India crash, it may not be something we have seen before.

    How did one passenger survive?

    One passenger survived the crash. We don’t know exactly how.

    He was sitting in seat 11A, next to an emergency exit. Reports say the plane “broke in half”, and the passenger found himself in the front half while the rear caught fire. He then walked from the wreckage and was found by rescuers.

    Why did he survive when everybody else died? Research suggests that, in general, the seats at the back of the plane are the safest place to be in a crash – but this man was quite close to the front.

    Based on what we know so far, my expert opinion is that we have no better explanation than to call it luck or a miracle.

    Where to from here?

    We won’t have a clear idea of what happened until a full investigation has been carried out. Air crash investigations follow a protocol laid out by an International Civil Aviation Organization document called Annex 14.

    India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau will lead this investigation, putting together a team that will be assisted by representatives from the US National Transport Safety Bureau and the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch, representing the countries of the plane’s manufacturer and passengers aboard.

    Rescuers sift through the wreckage of Flight AI171 in Ahmedabad.
    Sam Panthaky / AFP via Getty Images

    The team will conduct a forensic investigation of the crash site to make sense of what happened. Alongside material evidence found at the site, they will look at the data stored in the plane’s “black box”, which includes data from the flight recorder and cockpit voice recorder, to learn about what happened in the leadup to the crash.

    A slow, steady process

    Air crash investigations can take a long time. Typically a preliminary report will be published 3 to 6 months after the crash, followed by a final report a year or two later.

    The report will provide factual information on the cause of the accident and make recommendations. Depending on the cause, these might be changes to maintenance procedures, pilot and crew procedures, or even the design of parts of the aircraft.

    Indian authorities will then disseminate these recommendations to whoever needs them around the world. The process is slow, but it moves in the direction of safer air travel. Everyone will be waiting to find out and learn.

    In the meantime, it’s best to remember that we still don’t know what happened or why. Everyone wants answers, but speculation can do more harm than good.

    Guido Carim Junior does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What do we know about the Air India crash? How did one man survive? What now? An aviation safety expert explains – https://theconversation.com/what-do-we-know-about-the-air-india-crash-how-did-one-man-survive-what-now-an-aviation-safety-expert-explains-258910

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Speculation about the cause of Air India crash is rife. An aviation expert explains why it’s a problem

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Natasha Heap, Program Director for the Bachelor of Aviation, University of Southern Queensland

    It has only been a few hours since Air India flight AI171 crashed in Ahmedabad, killing more than 260 people, yet public speculation about the causes of the disaster is already rife.

    Parts of the media seem to be encouraging this. For example, earlier today I was contacted by an international news organisation for an interview about the tragedy. While I agreed, I cautioned that I could only say “it is too early to speculate”. They decided not to proceed with the interview. No reason was given, but perhaps it was my aversion to speculation.

    Of course, I want to know as much as anyone else what caused this disaster. But publicly speculating at such an early stage, when there is so little evidence available, is more than unhelpful. It is also harmful, as many examples throughout history have shown.

    Like an archaeological excavation

    Aviation accident investigations start as soon as first responders have extinguished the fires and completed the search for survivors – the first and foremost driver when responding to such a disaster – and have declared the site safe. The identification of the victims will then commence, completed by a different agency, parallel to the accident investigation.

    State authorities aren’t the only people involved. The aircraft manufacturer (in this case Boeing) will usually send representatives to assist the investigation, as can the home countries of victims. Investigators in the country where the accident occurred may also request assistance from countries with more experience in aviation accident investigation.

    An early step for investigators is finding the black boxes (flight data recorders and cockpit voice recorder) among the debris. These contain data about the flight itself, what the aircraft was doing, and what the pilots were saying.

    But a plane crash investigation involves much more than just finding the black box.

    An aviation accident investigation is akin to an archaeological excavation – methodical and painstaking. If the evidence is not collected and preserved for later analysis at the time, it will be irrevocably lost.

    In the case of Air India Flight 171 the scene is further complicated by the crash location – a building. It will take time for the aeroplane wreckage, victims and personal belongings to be sorted from the building debris. This must occur before the search for answers can commence.

    Investigators will also gather witness statements and any video of the event. Their analysis will be further informed by company documentation, training, and regulatory compliance information.

    Around 80% of aviation accidents are due to “human factors”.

    According to the International Civil Aviation Organisation human factors are:

    what we know about human beings including their abilities, characteristics, and limitations, the design of procedures and equipment people use, and the environment in which they function and the tasks they perform.

    It could take several years for the full forensic investigation into this disaster to run its full course. For example, the final report into the Sea World helicopter crash in Queensland, Australia, back in 2023, which claimed the lives of four people and injured nine others, was only released in April this year.

    A history of speculation – and vilification

    There is a long history of undue and harmful public speculation about the possible causes of a plane crash.

    For example, since the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 on March 8, 2014, speculation has swirled about whether chief pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah was responsible for the disaster and the deaths of the other 238 people on board. This has deeply upset his sister, Sakinab Shah. In 2016, she told CNN she feels her brother is a “scapegoat” she must defend.

    Similarly, the pilots of the British Midlands accident near Kegworth in 1989, in which 47 people died, were also publicly vilified.

    The pilots, who survived the crash, were experienced but misidentified which engine had failed, and shut down the wrong one. They were widely criticised in the press for the error, tarnishing their reputations, losing their jobs, and no doubt causing more stress to their families. The investigation later revealed the pilots themselves had not received any simulator training as they transitioned to a newer variant of the aircraft they were flying.

    This shows how undue public speculation about an airline disaster can add to the distress of victims and their families.

    Respect the process

    No doubt pilots and aviation experts are speculating in private right now about the causes of this particular disaster. Cafes, pubs and crew rooms will be rife with discussions and opinions. It is human nature to want to know what happened.

    But to speculate in public won’t assist the investigative process. Nor will it help the families of the victims, or the first responders and investigators themselves, get through this horrible time.

    Investigators need to work without external pressures to ensure accurate findings. Respecting this process maintains integrity and supports the many people who are currently experiencing unimaginable grief.

    Natasha Heap does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Speculation about the cause of Air India crash is rife. An aviation expert explains why it’s a problem – https://theconversation.com/speculation-about-the-cause-of-air-india-crash-is-rife-an-aviation-expert-explains-why-its-a-problem-258911

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What do we know about the Air India crash? How did one man survive? What now? An aviation safety expert explains

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Guido Carim Junior, Senior Lecturer in Aviation, Griffith University

    The back of Air India flight 171 after it crashed into a residential building in Ahmedabad. Sam Panthaky / AFP via Getty Images

    An Air India flight crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad in northwest India on Thursday afternoon local time, killing more than 260 people.

    The Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, Flight AI171, was carrying 242 people bound for London. Only one passenger, a British man, survived.

    The plane crashed less than a minute after takeoff, coming down on top of a college hostel around 1.5 kilometres from the runway. Little is known so far about the cause of the incident.

    As an aviation safety expert, it is hard to avoid a sense of disbelief that an event such as this – involving one of the most advanced passenger jets in the world, built on the lessons of many earlier accidents – could happen in the 21st century.

    Trouble after takeoff

    Air crashes such as this one, in which a plane experiences trouble immediately after takeoff, are now extremely rare. They were more common in the past.

    In one infamous 1999 incident, 32 people died when LAPA Flight 3142 crashed during takeoff from Buenos Aires. During the accident investigation, it emerged that the Boeing 737’s wing flaps had not been in the right position for takeoff and the crew had ignored alarms from the plane’s internal warning system.

    The 2009 emergency landing of US Airways Flight 1549 on New York’s Hudson River also occurred shortly after takeoff. In that case, the problem was quite different: a collision with a flock of Canada geese shut down both engines, leading to a powerless aircraft.

    However, the aviation industry puts a lot of resources into learning from accidents so they don’t happen again. LAPA Flight 3142 led to recommended improvements in pilot training and flight procedures. The rules for engine design were changed after the “miracle on the Hudson”.

    So whatever caused the Air India crash, it may not be something we have seen before.

    How did one passenger survive?

    One passenger survived the crash. We don’t know exactly how.

    He was sitting in seat 11A, next to an emergency exit. Reports say the plane “broke in half”, and the passenger found himself in the front half while the rear caught fire. He then walked from the wreckage and was found by rescuers.

    Why did he survive when everybody else died? Research suggests that, in general, the seats at the back of the plane are the safest place to be in a crash – but this man was quite close to the front.

    Based on what we know so far, my expert opinion is that we have no better explanation than to call it luck or a miracle.

    Where to from here?

    We won’t have a clear idea of what happened until a full investigation has been carried out. Air crash investigations follow a protocol laid out by an International Civil Aviation Organization document called Annex 14.

    India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau will lead this investigation, putting together a team that will be assisted by representatives from the US National Transport Safety Bureau and the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch, representing the countries of the plane’s manufacturer and passengers aboard.

    Rescuers sift through the wreckage of Flight AI171 in Ahmedabad.
    Sam Panthaky / AFP via Getty Images

    The team will conduct a forensic investigation of the crash site to make sense of what happened. Alongside material evidence found at the site, they will look at the data stored in the plane’s “black box”, which includes data from the flight recorder and cockpit voice recorder, to learn about what happened in the leadup to the crash.

    A slow, steady process

    Air crash investigations can take a long time. Typically a preliminary report will be published 3 to 6 months after the crash, followed by a final report a year or two later.

    The report will provide factual information on the cause of the accident and make recommendations. Depending on the cause, these might be changes to maintenance procedures, pilot and crew procedures, or even the design of parts of the aircraft.

    Indian authorities will then disseminate these recommendations to whoever needs them around the world. The process is slow, but it moves in the direction of safer air travel. Everyone will be waiting to find out and learn.

    In the meantime, it’s best to remember that we still don’t know what happened or why. Everyone wants answers, but speculation can do more harm than good.

    Guido Carim Junior does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What do we know about the Air India crash? How did one man survive? What now? An aviation safety expert explains – https://theconversation.com/what-do-we-know-about-the-air-india-crash-how-did-one-man-survive-what-now-an-aviation-safety-expert-explains-258910

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Speculation about the cause of Air India crash is rife. An aviation expert explains why it’s a problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natasha Heap, Program Director for the Bachelor of Aviation, University of Southern Queensland

    It has only been a few hours since Air India flight AI171 crashed in Ahmedabad, killing more than 260 people, yet public speculation about the causes of the disaster is already rife.

    Parts of the media seem to be encouraging this. For example, earlier today I was contacted by an international news organisation for an interview about the tragedy. While I agreed, I cautioned that I could only say “it is too early to speculate”. They decided not to proceed with the interview. No reason was given, but perhaps it was my aversion to speculation.

    Of course, I want to know as much as anyone else what caused this disaster. But publicly speculating at such an early stage, when there is so little evidence available, is more than unhelpful. It is also harmful, as many examples throughout history have shown.

    Like an archaeological excavation

    Aviation accident investigations start as soon as first responders have extinguished the fires and completed the search for survivors – the first and foremost driver when responding to such a disaster – and have declared the site safe. The identification of the victims will then commence, completed by a different agency, parallel to the accident investigation.

    State authorities aren’t the only people involved. The aircraft manufacturer (in this case Boeing) will usually send representatives to assist the investigation, as can the home countries of victims. Investigators in the country where the accident occurred may also request assistance from countries with more experience in aviation accident investigation.

    An early step for investigators is finding the black boxes (flight data recorders and cockpit voice recorder) among the debris. These contain data about the flight itself, what the aircraft was doing, and what the pilots were saying.

    But a plane crash investigation involves much more than just finding the black box.

    An aviation accident investigation is akin to an archaeological excavation – methodical and painstaking. If the evidence is not collected and preserved for later analysis at the time, it will be irrevocably lost.

    In the case of Air India Flight 171 the scene is further complicated by the crash location – a building. It will take time for the aeroplane wreckage, victims and personal belongings to be sorted from the building debris. This must occur before the search for answers can commence.

    Investigators will also gather witness statements and any video of the event. Their analysis will be further informed by company documentation, training, and regulatory compliance information.

    Around 80% of aviation accidents are due to “human factors”.

    According to the International Civil Aviation Organisation human factors are:

    what we know about human beings including their abilities, characteristics, and limitations, the design of procedures and equipment people use, and the environment in which they function and the tasks they perform.

    It could take several years for the full forensic investigation into this disaster to run its full course. For example, the final report into the Sea World helicopter crash in Queensland, Australia, back in 2023, which claimed the lives of four people and injured nine others, was only released in April this year.

    A history of speculation – and vilification

    There is a long history of undue and harmful public speculation about the possible causes of a plane crash.

    For example, since the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 on March 8, 2014, speculation has swirled about whether chief pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah was responsible for the disaster and the deaths of the other 238 people on board. This has deeply upset his sister, Sakinab Shah. In 2016, she told CNN she feels her brother is a “scapegoat” she must defend.

    Similarly, the pilots of the British Midlands accident near Kegworth in 1989, in which 47 people died, were also publicly vilified.

    The pilots, who survived the crash, were experienced but misidentified which engine had failed, and shut down the wrong one. They were widely criticised in the press for the error, tarnishing their reputations, losing their jobs, and no doubt causing more stress to their families. The investigation later revealed the pilots themselves had not received any simulator training as they transitioned to a newer variant of the aircraft they were flying.

    This shows how undue public speculation about an airline disaster can add to the distress of victims and their families.

    Respect the process

    No doubt pilots and aviation experts are speculating in private right now about the causes of this particular disaster. Cafes, pubs and crew rooms will be rife with discussions and opinions. It is human nature to want to know what happened.

    But to speculate in public won’t assist the investigative process. Nor will it help the families of the victims, or the first responders and investigators themselves, get through this horrible time.

    Investigators need to work without external pressures to ensure accurate findings. Respecting this process maintains integrity and supports the many people who are currently experiencing unimaginable grief.

    Natasha Heap does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Speculation about the cause of Air India crash is rife. An aviation expert explains why it’s a problem – https://theconversation.com/speculation-about-the-cause-of-air-india-crash-is-rife-an-aviation-expert-explains-why-its-a-problem-258911

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Editor calls for NZ to immediately expel Israeli envoy for unprovoked attack on Iran

    EDITORIAL: By Martyn Bradbury, editor of The Daily Blog

    The madness has begun.

    We should have suspected something when the cloud strike shut down occurred.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs to continue war so that he is never held to account.

    This madness is the last straw.

    NZ must immediately expel the Israeli Ambassador for this unprovoked attack on Iran.

    As moral and ethical people, we must turn away from Israel’s new war crime, they have started a war, we must as righteous people condemn Israel and their enabler America.

    This is the beginning of madness.

    We cannot be party to it.

    Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Amman, Jordan, said the Israeli army radio was reporting that in addition to the air strikes, Israel’s external intelligence service Mossad had carried out some sabotage activities and attacks inside Iran.

    “There are also several reports and leaks in the Israeli media talking not only about the assassination of the top chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard but rather a very large number of senior military commanders in addition to prominent academics and nuclear scientists,” she said.

    “This is a very large-scale attack, not just on military installations, but also on the people who could potentially be making decisions about what Iran can do next, how Iran can respond to this attack that continues as we speak.”

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How long is a vagina? And how do I know if mine is ‘short’?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keersten Fitzgerald, Lecturer in General Practice, University of Sydney

    Jarrod Simpson/Getty

    We often use the word vagina to describe everything “down there”, but that’s not actually anatomically correct.

    The vagina is the stretchy, muscular tube that connects the external genitalia, or vulva, to the cervix, which is the entrance to the uterus (womb).

    Because it’s barely visible from the outside, many vagina owners wonder how long theirs is, or should be.

    Worried teenagers going through puberty regularly asked “Dolly Doctor” – the medical advice column Melissa wrote for over 20 years in Dolly magazine – whether their vaginas were too small or short.

    Often they were asking because inserting a tampon was difficult or painful.

    The vagina is an incredibly adaptable part of the body and its length can change – across your lifetime, within the month, and with hormonal changes and sexual arousal.

    Length at different life stages

    Before puberty, the vagina usually measures between 5.5 and 8cm in length.

    During puberty (usually between 8–13 years old), not only does the length of the vagina increase, but hormones also change the vaginal lining.

    In the time of life between puberty and menopause, oestrogen levels rise and cause the lining of the vagina to thicken and soften. This is what makes the vagina moist and responsive to stimuli, such as when aroused.

    By adulthood, the vagina is typically between 6.5cm and 12.5cm. This varies greatly from person to person and continues to change at different times during our lives.

    What else can change the vagina’s length?

    When someone has their period, generally the cervix sits in a lower position, meaning the vaginal canal is shorter. Then, after menstruation, the cervix lifts upwards again and reaches its highest point during ovulation.

    The length of the vagina also changes during different reproductive stages. For example, in pregnancy the cervix sits higher up, meaning the vagina is longer.

    On the other hand, menopause, along with many other impacts such as vaginal dryness, can shorten the vaginal canal.

    A pelvic organ prolapse can also make the vagina shorter. This is when the pelvic floor becomes weakened and organs such as the womb or bladder bulge into the vagina.



    Read more:
    What is pelvic organ prolapse and how is it treated?

    There are also some very rare conditions that can affect the development of the vagina before birth, such as vaginal atresia, which can cause the vagina to not fully form.

    What about sex?

    Sex also has a large impact on vaginal length.

    When someone with a vagina becomes aroused the vagina gets longer and moves the cervix further from the vaginal opening, which allows for sexual penetration.

    Despite this lengthening of the vagina, contact with the cervix can still occur during sex, for example with a sex toy, finger or penis. Some people will find cervical stimulation painful or sensitive, while for others it may be pleasurable.

    How sex feels can also change depending on your menstrual cycle.

    Remember, when you have your period, the cervix is likely to be sitting lower, so this can increase the chance of contact with the cervix during sex, especially during certain sexual positions.

    Touching the cervix during sex is very unlikely to cause any damage, although sometimes with vigorous sexual intercourse it can cause bruising. This is not usually dangerous and heals on its own.

    Ongoing communication with your partner is crucial to check in and see what feels good for both of you.

    So, how long is my vagina?

    It can be useful to feel the length of your vagina and the position of your cervix.

    For example, if you want to use a menstrual cup during your period, some brands will have different sizes. If you have a shorter vaginal canal, then a shorter or smaller cup may achieve a better fit.

    However, other factors – such as your age and how heavy your periods are – can also impact what size is right for you.

    To feel the position of your cervix, first wash your hands with soap and water. This is best done around the time of your period, when the vaginal canal will be shorter.

    Find a comfortable position, such as sitting, squatting or having one leg bent up on a chair. Then insert your finger into the vagina aiming up and back.

    The vagina feels soft and squishy, whereas the cervix is smooth and firm, with a tiny divot in the centre – imagine a mini doughnut.

    If you have to really stretch to feel the cervix, you may opt for a longer cup, whereas if you don’t need to insert your whole finger, it is probably sitting a bit lower and you may be more comfortable with a smaller size.

    Keep in mind, this will just give you a rough idea of your vagina’s length and where your cervix is sitting (although it may change tomorrow).



    Read more:
    Menstrual cups are safe and sustainable – but they can be tricky for first-time users, our new study shows

    Does the length of your vagina matter?

    All of our bodies are unique and there is a wide range of “normal”. Generally, having a “short” or “long” vagina doesn’t make any real difference.

    For example, a 2009 study of women over the age of 40 found vaginal length doesn’t affect sexual activity or function.

    The vagina is extremely elastic and can stretch and mould to accommodate a variety of needs, before returning back to its baseline.

    There are some symptoms that would be worth discussing with your GP though, such as pain during sex, difficulty inserting tampons or menstrual cups, or if you are concerned about a prolapse.

    Melissa Kang is affiliated in a volunteer capacity with the Australian Association for Adolescent Health and the International Association for Adolescent Health. She was the medical writer for the Dolly Doctor column in Dolly magazine between 1993 and 2016.

    Keersten Fitzgerald does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How long is a vagina? And how do I know if mine is ‘short’? – https://theconversation.com/how-long-is-a-vagina-and-how-do-i-know-if-mine-is-short-256206

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump may push Albanese on defence spending, but Australia has leverage it can use, too

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thomas Corben, Research Fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence, University of Sydney

    Ahead of a prospective meeting between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and US President Donald Trump at the G7 Summit Canada, two key developments have bumped defence issues to the top of the alliance agenda.

    First, in a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles late last month, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth urged Australia to boost defence spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP).

    This elicited a stern response from Albanese that “Australia should decide what we spend on Australia’s defence.”

    Then, this week, news emerged the Pentagon is conducting a review of the AUKUS deal to ensure it aligns with Trump’s “America First” agenda.

    Speculation is rife as to the reasons for the review. Some contend it’s a classic Trump “shakedown” to force Australia to pay more for its submarines, while others say it’s a normal move for any new US administration.



    Read more:
    Trump may try to strike a deal with AUKUS review, but here’s why he won’t sink it

    The reality is somewhere in between. Trump may well see an opportunity to “own” the AUKUS deal negotiated by his predecessor, Joe Biden, by seeking to extract a “better deal” from Australia.

    But while support for AUKUS across the US system is strong, the review also reflects long-standing and bipartisan concerns in the US over the deal. These include, among other things, Australia’s functional and fiscal capacity to take charge of its own nuclear-powered submarines once they are built.

    So, why have these issues come up now, just before Albanese’s first face-to-face meeting with Trump?

    To understand this, it’s important to place both issues in a wider context. We need to consider the Trump administration’s overall approach to alliances, as well as whether Australia’s defence budget matches our strategy.

    Trump, alliances and burden-sharing

    Senior Pentagon figures noted months ago that defence spending was their “main concern” with Australia in an otherwise “excellent” relationship.

    But such concerns are not exclusive to Australia. Rather, they speak to Trump’s broader approach to alliances worldwide – he wants US allies in Europe and Asia to share more of the burden, as well.

    Trump’s team sees defence spending (calculated as a percentage of GDP) as a basic indicator of an ally’s seriousness about both their own national defence and collective security with Washington.

    As Hegseth noted in testimony before Congress this week, “we can’t want [our allies’] security more than they do.”

    Initially, the Trump administration’s burden-sharing grievances with NATO received the most attention. The government demanded European allies boost spending to 5% of GDP in the interests of what prominent MAGA figures have called “burden-owning”.

    Several analysts interpreted these demands as indicative of what will be asked of Asian partners, including Australia.

    In reality, what Washington wants from European and Indo-Pacific allies differs in small but important ways.

    In Europe, the Trump administration wants allies to assume near-total responsibility for their own defence to enable the US to focus on bigger strategic priorities. These include border security at home and, importantly, Chinese military power in the Indo-Pacific.

    By contrast, Trump’s early moves on defence policy in Asia have emphasised a degree of cooperation and mutual benefit.

    The administration has explicitly linked its burden-sharing demands with a willingness to work with its allies – Japan, South Korea, Australia and others – in pursuit of a strategy of collective defence to deter Chinese aggression.

    This reflects a long-standing recognition in Washington that America needs its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific perhaps more than anywhere else in the world. The reason: to support US forces across the vast Pacific and Indian oceans and to counter China’s growing ability to disrupt US military operations across the region.

    In other words, the US must balance its demands of Indo-Pacific allies with the knowledge that it also needs their help to succeed in Asia.

    This means the Albanese government can and should engage the Trump administration with confidence on defence matters – including AUKUS.

    It has a lot to offer America, not just a lot to lose.

    Australian defence spending

    But a discussion over Australia’s defence spending is not simply a matter of alliance management. It also speaks to the genuine challenges Australia faces in matching its strategy with its resources.

    Albanese is right to say Australia will set its own defence policy based on its needs rather than an arbitrary percentage of GDP determined by Washington.

    But it’s also true Australia’s defence budget must match the aspirations and requirements set out in its 2024 National Defence Strategy. This is necessary for our defence posture to be credible.

    This document paints a sobering picture of the increasingly fraught strategic environment Australia finds itself in. And it outlines an ambitious capability development agenda to allow Australia to do its part to maintain the balance of power in the region, alongside the United States and other partners.

    But there is growing concern in the Australian policy community that our defence budget is insufficient to meet these goals.

    For instance, one of the lead authors of Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review, Sir Angus Houston, mused last year that in order for AUKUS submarines to be a “net addition” to the nation’s military capability, Australia would need to increase its defence spending to more than 3% of GDP through the 2030s.

    Otherwise, he warned, AUKUS would “cannibalise” investments in Australia’s surface fleet, long-range strike capabilities, air and missile defence, and other capabilities.

    There’s evidence the Australian government understands this, too. Marles and the minister for defence industry, Pat Conroy, have both said the government is willing to “have a conversation” about increasing spending, if required to meet Australia’s strategic needs.

    This is all to say that an additional push from Trump on defence spending and burden-sharing – however unpleasantly delivered – would not be out of the ordinary. And it may, in fact, be beneficial for Australia’s own deliberations on its defence spending needs.

    Thomas Corben receives funding from the Australian Department of Defence.

    – ref. Trump may push Albanese on defence spending, but Australia has leverage it can use, too – https://theconversation.com/trump-may-push-albanese-on-defence-spending-but-australia-has-leverage-it-can-use-too-258811

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 13, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 13, 2025.

    As Antarctic sea ice shrinks, iconic emperor penguins are in more peril than we thought
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dana M Bergstrom, Honorary Senior Fellow in Ecology, University of Wollongong When winter comes to Antarctica, seals and Adélie penguins leave the freezing shores and head for the edge of the forming sea ice. But emperor penguins stay put. The existence of emperor penguins seems all but

    Bougainville legal dept looking towards sorcery violence policy
    RNZ Pacific The Department of Justice and Legal Services in Bougainville is aiming to craft a government policy to deal with violence related to sorcery accusations. The Post-Courier reports that a forum, which wrapped up on Wednesday, aimed to dissect the roots of sorcery/witchcraft beliefs and the severe violence stemming from accusations. An initial forum

    NZ has a vast sea territory but lags behind other nations in protecting the ocean
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Conrad Pilditch, Professor of Marine Sciences, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images For the past fortnight, the city of Nice in France has been the global epicentre of ocean science and politics. Last week’s One Ocean Science Congress ended with a unanimous call for action

    US Army’s image of power and flag-waving rings false to Gen Z weary of gun violence − and long-term recruitment numbers show it
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacob Ware, Adjunct Professor of Domestic Terrorism, Georgetown University A recruit participates in the Army’s future soldier prep course at Fort Jackson in Columbia, S.C., on Sept. 25, 2024. AP Photo/Chris Carlson The U.S. Army will celebrate its 250th birthday on Saturday, June 14, 2025, with a

    It took more than a century, but women are taking charge of Australia’s economy – here’s why it matters
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Duygu Yengin, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Adelaide For the first time in its 124-year history, Treasury will be led by a woman. Jenny Wilkinson’s appointment is historic in its own right. Even more remarkable is the fact she joins Michele Bullock at the Reserve Bank

    With Trump undoing years of progress, can the US salvage its Pacific Islands strategy?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Tidwell, Director, Center for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies, Georgetown University Donald Trump signs a proclamation expanding fishing rights in the Pacific Islands, April 17. Getty Images Since 2018, the United States has worked, albeit often haltingly, to regain its footing with Pacific Island countries.

    Workers need better tools and tech to boost productivity. Why aren’t companies stepping up to invest?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Head, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers turn their attention to improving productivity growth across the economy, it will be interesting to see what the business community brings to a planned summit in August. Labour

    AI overviews have transformed Google search. Here’s how they work – and how to opt out
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University cosma/Shutterstock People turn to the internet to run billions of search queries each year. These range from keeping tabs on world events and celebrities to learning new words and getting DIY help. One of the

    ‘Like an underwater bushfire’: SA’s marine algal bloom is still killing almost everything in its path
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Barrera, PhD Candidate, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide Paul Macdonald of Edithburgh Diving South Australian beaches have been awash with foamy, discoloured water and dead marine life for months. The problem hasn’t gone away; it has spread. Devastating scenes of death and destruction mobilised

    Sunday Too Far Away at 50: how a story about Aussie shearers launched a local film industry
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Walsh, Associate Professor, Screen and Media, Flinders University Released 50 years ago, Sunday Too Far Away deals episodically with a group of shearers led by Foley (Jack Thompson), and the events leading up to the national shearers’ strike of 1956. The shearers are a ragtag group

    Khartoum before the war: the public spaces that held the city together
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ibrahim Z. Bahreldin, Associate Professor of Urban & Environmental Design, University of Khartoum What makes a public space truly public? In Khartoum, before the current conflict engulfed Sudan, the answer was not always a park, a plaza or a promenade. The city’s streets, tea stalls (sitat al-shai),

    Politics with Michelle Grattan: Senator Tammy Tyrrell on wild days in Tasmania
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Tasmanian politics has been thrown into chaos after a Labor motion of no confidence forced Premier Jeremy Rockliff to either resign or call for a new election. The premier opted for the latter, with Tasmanians to vote on July 19,

    Chris Hedges: The last days of Gaza
    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – The genocide is almost complete. When it is concluded it will have exposed the moral bankruptcy of Western civilisation, writes Chris Hedges. ANALYSIS: By Chris Hedges This is the end. The final blood-soaked chapter of the genocide. It will be over soon. Weeks. At most. Two

    Grattan on Friday: the galahs are chattering about ‘productivity’, but can Labor really get it moving?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Former prime minister Paul Keating famously used to say the resident galah in any pet shop was talking about micro-economic policy. These days, if you encounter a pet shop with a galah, she’ll be chattering about productivity. Productivity is currently

    Greenpeace activists aboard Rainbow Warrior disrupt Pacific industrial fishing operation
    By Emma Page Greenpeace activists on board the Greenpeace flagship Rainbow Warrior disrupted an industrial longlining fishing operation in the South Pacific, seizing almost 20 km of fishing gear and freeing nine sharks — including an endangered mako — near Australia and New Zealand. Crew retrieved the entire longline and more than 210 baited hooks

    View from The Hill: Is the US playing cat and mouse ahead of expected Albanese-Trump talks?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra For the first time in memory, an Australian prime minister is approaching a prospective meeting with a US president with a distinct feeling of wariness. Of course Anthony Albanese would deny it. But it’s undeniable the government is relieved that

    Caitlin Johnstone: Staring down the barrel of war with Iran once again
    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone Well it looks like the US is on the precipice of war with Iran again. US officials are telling the press that they anticipate a potential impending Israeli attack on Iran while the family members of US military personnel are being assisted

    Global outrage over Gaza has reinforced a ‘siege mentality’ in Israel – what are the implications for peace?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eyal Mayroz, Senior Lecturer in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney After more than 20 months of devastating violence in Gaza, the right-wing Israeli government’s pursuit of two irreconcilable objectives — “destroying” Hamas and releasing Israeli hostages — has left the coastal strip in ruins. At

    The weight loss drug Mounjaro has been approved to treat sleep apnoea. How does it work?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yaqoot Fatima, Professor of Sleep Health, University of the Sunshine Coast coldsnowstorm/Getty Images Last week, Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) approved the weight-loss drug Mounjaro to treat sleep apnoea, a condition in which breathing stops and starts repeatedly during sleep. The TGA has indicated Mounjaro can be

    Not all insecure work has to be a ‘bad job’: research shows job design can make a big difference
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rose-Marie Stambe, Adjunct Research Fellow, social and economic marginalisation, The University of Queensland Matej Kastelic/Shutterstock Inflation has steadied and interest rates are finally coming down. But for many Australians, especially those in low-paid, insecure or precarious work, the cost-of-living crisis feels far from over. The federal government

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As Antarctic sea ice shrinks, iconic emperor penguins are in more peril than we thought

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dana M Bergstrom, Honorary Senior Fellow in Ecology, University of Wollongong

    When winter comes to Antarctica, seals and Adélie penguins leave the freezing shores and head for the edge of the forming sea ice. But emperor penguins stay put.

    The existence of emperor penguins seems all but impossible. Their lives revolve around seasons, timing and access to “fast ice” – sea ice connected to the Antarctic coast. Here, the sea ice persists long enough into summer for the penguins to rear their chicks successfully.

    But climate change is upending the penguins’ carefully tuned biological cycles. The crucial sea ice they depend on is melting too early, plunging the chicks from some colonies into the sea before they are fully fledged.

    In the latest bad news for these penguins, research by the British Antarctic Survey examined satellite images from 2009 to 2024 to assess fast-ice conditions at 16 emperor penguin colonies south of South America. They noted an average 22% fall in numbers across these colonies. That translates to a decrease of 1.6% every year.

    This rate of loss is staggering. As the paper’s lead author Peter Fretwell told the ABC, the rate is about 50% worse than even the most pessimistic estimates.

    Emperor penguin colonies can number in the tens of thousands. But these numbers obscure an alarming trend.
    Robert Harding Video/Shutterstock

    Breeding while it’s freezing

    Just like polar bears in the Arctic, emperor penguins are the iconic species threatened by climate change in Antarctica.

    Emperor penguins are a highly successful species. They’re the tallest and heaviest penguin alive today. They evolved about one million years ago, and are highly adapted to life in one of Earth’s harshest environments. As of 2009, the emperor penguin population was estimated at just shy of 600,000 birds.

    Unfortunately, they are now in real trouble, because their breeding habitat appears to be reducing.

    At the beginning of every Antarctic winter, the surface of the ocean begins to freeze and sea ice forms. Over March and April, emperor penguins aggregate into raucous breeding colonies along the coast of the ice continent. They need about nine months to care for their chicks, until the young penguins can go to sea and look after themselves.

    The males frequently huddle to keep each other warm and their eggs safe. Meanwhile, the females spend months at sea catching krill, squid and fish, returning in July/August to feed their hungry chicks. When summer finally comes in December, the chicks start to shed their down and grow a dense, waterproof plumage – like a feathery armour against the intensely cold seas off the icy continent.

    Breeding locations are a kind of “Goldilocks” zone. When choosing a home, the penguins have to find a place that is safe but not too far from the fast ice edge where they go to start hunting.

    The greater the distance they have to travel, the longer it takes to return to their offspring, and the chicks may miss out on meals. But if a colony is too close to the edge of the fast ice, the risk increases that the ice breaks up before the chicks are ready to go to sea. Although fast ice can cover vast areas of the ocean surface, its edge is exposed to the swell of the Southern Ocean.

    In recent years, the fast ice in different parts of Antarctica has been breaking up early, before the chicks have moulted into their adult plumage. Without waterproof plumage, chicks perish because the cold water kills quickly. As this happens more often, the size of a colony shrinks.

    How bad is it?

    We don’t yet know if this rate of loss is happening right across Antarctica. The study only covers a the part of the continent that includes the Antarctic Peninsula and the Weddell Sea.

    What we do know is that Antarctica and its unique biodiversity are not immune to the consequences of still-rising global greenhouse gas emissions.

    In 2021, emperor penguins were listed as endangered by the United States, because the risk of extinction by century’s end had increased. Australia has not yet listed the emperor penguin as a threatened species.

    The new research suggests the future of these iconic birds is not looking good. Until the world gets serious about cutting greenhouse gas emissions, sea ice will retreat – and more chicks will fall into the icy water before they are ready to launch.

    Seabird ecologist Dr Barbara Wienecke contributed to this article.

    Dana M Bergstrom is affiliated with the Pure Antarctic Foundation, a group of scientists and artists interested in communicating science and knowledge to the broader community.

    – ref. As Antarctic sea ice shrinks, iconic emperor penguins are in more peril than we thought – https://theconversation.com/as-antarctic-sea-ice-shrinks-iconic-emperor-penguins-are-in-more-peril-than-we-thought-258807

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As Antarctic sea ice shrinks, iconic emperor penguins are in more peril than we thought

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dana M Bergstrom, Honorary Senior Fellow in Ecology, University of Wollongong

    When winter comes to Antarctica, seals and Adélie penguins leave the freezing shores and head for the edge of the forming sea ice. But emperor penguins stay put.

    The existence of emperor penguins seems all but impossible. Their lives revolve around seasons, timing and access to “fast ice” – sea ice connected to the Antarctic coast. Here, the sea ice persists long enough into summer for the penguins to rear their chicks successfully.

    But climate change is upending the penguins’ carefully tuned biological cycles. The crucial sea ice they depend on is melting too early, plunging the chicks from some colonies into the sea before they are fully fledged.

    In the latest bad news for these penguins, research by the British Antarctic Survey examined satellite images from 2009 to 2024 to assess fast-ice conditions at 16 emperor penguin colonies south of South America. They noted an average 22% fall in numbers across these colonies. That translates to a decrease of 1.6% every year.

    This rate of loss is staggering. As the paper’s lead author Peter Fretwell told the ABC, the rate is about 50% worse than even the most pessimistic estimates.

    Emperor penguin colonies can number in the tens of thousands. But these numbers obscure an alarming trend.
    Robert Harding Video/Shutterstock

    Breeding while it’s freezing

    Just like polar bears in the Arctic, emperor penguins are the iconic species threatened by climate change in Antarctica.

    Emperor penguins are a highly successful species. They’re the tallest and heaviest penguin alive today. They evolved about one million years ago, and are highly adapted to life in one of Earth’s harshest environments. As of 2009, the emperor penguin population was estimated at just shy of 600,000 birds.

    Unfortunately, they are now in real trouble, because their breeding habitat appears to be reducing.

    At the beginning of every Antarctic winter, the surface of the ocean begins to freeze and sea ice forms. Over March and April, emperor penguins aggregate into raucous breeding colonies along the coast of the ice continent. They need about nine months to care for their chicks, until the young penguins can go to sea and look after themselves.

    The males frequently huddle to keep each other warm and their eggs safe. Meanwhile, the females spend months at sea catching krill, squid and fish, returning in July/August to feed their hungry chicks. When summer finally comes in December, the chicks start to shed their down and grow a dense, waterproof plumage – like a feathery armour against the intensely cold seas off the icy continent.

    Breeding locations are a kind of “Goldilocks” zone. When choosing a home, the penguins have to find a place that is safe but not too far from the fast ice edge where they go to start hunting.

    The greater the distance they have to travel, the longer it takes to return to their offspring, and the chicks may miss out on meals. But if a colony is too close to the edge of the fast ice, the risk increases that the ice breaks up before the chicks are ready to go to sea. Although fast ice can cover vast areas of the ocean surface, its edge is exposed to the swell of the Southern Ocean.

    In recent years, the fast ice in different parts of Antarctica has been breaking up early, before the chicks have moulted into their adult plumage. Without waterproof plumage, chicks perish because the cold water kills quickly. As this happens more often, the size of a colony shrinks.

    How bad is it?

    We don’t yet know if this rate of loss is happening right across Antarctica. The study only covers a the part of the continent that includes the Antarctic Peninsula and the Weddell Sea.

    What we do know is that Antarctica and its unique biodiversity are not immune to the consequences of still-rising global greenhouse gas emissions.

    In 2021, emperor penguins were listed as endangered by the United States, because the risk of extinction by century’s end had increased. Australia has not yet listed the emperor penguin as a threatened species.

    The new research suggests the future of these iconic birds is not looking good. Until the world gets serious about cutting greenhouse gas emissions, sea ice will retreat – and more chicks will fall into the icy water before they are ready to launch.

    Seabird ecologist Dr Barbara Wienecke contributed to this article.

    Dana M Bergstrom is affiliated with the Pure Antarctic Foundation, a group of scientists and artists interested in communicating science and knowledge to the broader community.

    – ref. As Antarctic sea ice shrinks, iconic emperor penguins are in more peril than we thought – https://theconversation.com/as-antarctic-sea-ice-shrinks-iconic-emperor-penguins-are-in-more-peril-than-we-thought-258807

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bougainville legal dept looking towards sorcery violence policy

    RNZ Pacific

    The Department of Justice and Legal Services in Bougainville is aiming to craft a government policy to deal with violence related to sorcery accusations.

    The Post-Courier reports that a forum, which wrapped up on Wednesday, aimed to dissect the roots of sorcery/witchcraft beliefs and the severe violence stemming from accusations.

    An initial forum was held in Arawa last month.

    Central Bougainville’s Director of Justice and Legal Services, Dennis Kuiai, said the forums’ ultimate goal is crafting a government policy.

    Further consultations are planned for South Bougainville next week and a regional forum in Arawa later this year.

    “This policy will be deliberated and developed into law to address sorcery and [sorcery accusation-related violence] in Bougainville,” he said.

    “We aim to provide an effective legal mechanism.”

    Targeted 3 key areas
    He said the future law’s structure was to target three key areas: the violence linked to accusations, sorcery practices themselves, and addressing the phenomenon of “glass man”.

    A glassman or glassmeri has the power to accuse women and men of witchcraft and sorcery.

    Papua New Guinea outlawed the practice in 2022.

    The forum culminated in the compilation and signing of a resolution on its closing day, witnessed by officials.

    Sorcery has long been an issue in PNG.

    Those accused of sorcery are frequently beaten, tortured, and murdered, and anyone who manage to survive the attacks are banished from their communities.

    Saved mother rejected
    In April, a mother-of-four was was reportedly rejected by her own family after she was saved by a social justice advocacy group.

    In August last year, an advocate told people in Aotearoa – where she was raising awareness – that Papua New Guinea desperately needed stronger laws to protect innocents and deliver justice for victims of sorcery related violence.

    In October 2023, Papua New Guinea MPs were told that gender-based and sorcery violence was widespread and much higher than reported.

    In November 2020, two men in the Bana district were hacked to death by members of a rival clan, who claimed the men used sorcery against them.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ has a vast sea territory but lags behind other nations in protecting the ocean

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Conrad Pilditch, Professor of Marine Sciences, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Getty Images

    For the past fortnight, the city of Nice in France has been the global epicentre of ocean science and politics.

    Last week’s One Ocean Science Congress ended with a unanimous call for action to turn around the degradation of the ocean. And this week, the United Nation’s Ocean Conference agenda focused on better protection of marine biodiversity, sustainable fisheries and emissions cuts.

    The message is clear. With only five years to the UN’s 2030 target for its sustainable development goal – to conserve the oceans, seas and marine resources – and the Global Biodiversity Framework requirement to protect 30% of the ocean, we need to make significant progress.

    We all attended last week’s meeting, together with more than 2,000 marine scientists from 120 countries. Here, we reflect on New Zealand’s role and obligations to contribute to these global goals.

    Legal imperatives

    Globally, the ocean is warming and acidifying at accelerating rates. New Zealand’s waters are not immune to this, with more marine heatwaves which further stress our threatened marine biodiversity.

    We depend directly on these ocean ecosystems to provide the air we breathe, moderate the impacts of climate change and feed millions of people.

    New Zealand has significant influence on ocean policy – from Antarctica to the sub-tropical Pacific, and within its sea territory, which is 15 times the size of its landmass and spans 30 degrees of latitude.

    The government is required by law to take action to secure a healthy ocean.

    A recent advisory opinion from the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea unanimously found that states, including New Zealand, have obligations under international law to reduce the impacts of climate change on marine areas, to apply an ecosystem approach to marine law and policy, reduce pollution and support the restoration of the ocean.

    New Zealand courts have recognised the need to take a precautionary and ecosystem-based approach to marine management, based on science, tikanga and mātauranga Māori. These legal cases are part of a global upswell of strategic environmental and climate litigation.

    If New Zealand does not comply with these marine legal obligations, it may well find itself before the courts, incurring significant legal and reputational costs.

    New Zealand committed to protecting at least 30% of the world’s coastal and marine areas by the end of this decade.
    Getty Images

    International agreements

    In 2022, New Zealand was one of 196 countries that committed to protecting at least 30% of the world’s coastal and marine areas by 2030 under the Global Biodiversity Framework. New Zealand was an enthusiastic supporter, but only 0.4% of its marine territory is fully protected in no-take marine reserves.

    Former prime minister Helen Clark has criticised the current government for lagging behind on marine protection, especially in failing to ban bottom trawling.

    At this week’s UN ocean summit, a further 18 countries have ratified an agreement known as the High Seas Treaty, bringing the total to 50, still short of the 60 nations needed for it to enter into force.

    New Zealand signed this treaty just before the last general election, but is yet to ratify it. Foreign Minister Winston Peters represented New Zealand at the UN ocean conference, but focused mainly on issues in the Pacific.

    Meanwhile, the government announced sweeping changes to the national direction on environmental policy, including reworking the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement to better enable the use and development of the coastal environment for “priority activities” such as aquaculture, resource extraction, infrastructure and energy.

    Oceanic environmental change is real and accelerating

    Some countries showed that effective leadership can help navigate to a safe future for the oceans. For example, China’s commitment to clean energy has seen carbon dioxide emissions begin to fall for the first time despite higher power consumption.

    At the UN ocean summit, French Polynesia’s president announced his administration would establish one of the world’s largest networks of marine protected areas.

    The cost of inaction far outweighs the economics of the status quo. Ongoing ocean warming is already affecting weather patterns, with more extreme storms.

    It is possible for marine ecosystems to recover quite rapidly if they are protected, at least temporarily. Yet this year, New Zealand’s government found itself in hot water (once again) with both conservationists and Māori for its management of fisheries.

    We argue New Zealand has an opportunity and responsibility to demonstrate it can shift the downward spiral of oceanic degradation.

    The overwhelming message at the half-way point of the UN Ocean Decade is that for marine science to transform the state of our oceans it needs to include Indigenous peoples who have routinely been sidelined from ocean policy discussions despite their longstanding rights and relationships with the ocean.

    New Zealand already has a foundation of transdisciplinary and Indigenous ocean research to develop ocean policies that are fit for local purposes and to answer global calls to action. We have a unique window of opportunity to lead the changes needed.

    Conrad Pilditch currently receives funding from the Department of Conservation and the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment.

    Elizabeth Macpherson receives funding from Te Apārangi The Royal Society.

    Karin Bryan receives funding from the Marsden Fund, the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment, the George Mason Centre for the Natural Environment and Waikato Regional Council.

    Simon Francis Thrush receives funding from ERC, Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment and the Auckland Foundation

    Joanne Ellis, Karen Fisher, and Rachael Mortiaux do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NZ has a vast sea territory but lags behind other nations in protecting the ocean – https://theconversation.com/nz-has-a-vast-sea-territory-but-lags-behind-other-nations-in-protecting-the-ocean-258470

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Two-state solution in the Middle East has been a core US policy for 25 years – is the Trump administration eyeing a change?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dan Arbell, Scholar-in-residence at the Center for Israeli Studies, American University

    Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, holds a note given to him from President Donald Trump to be placed in the cracks of the Western Wall in the old city of Jerusalem on April 18, 2025. Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images

    For a generation, the promotion of a “two-state solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a core pillar of U.S. policy in the Middle East.

    But ahead of a major United Nations conference on how to advance that solution, some are asking if Washington is eyeing a change.

    On June 10, 2025, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, stated in an interview to Bloomberg that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state at this time, noting that “unless there are some significant things that happen that change the [Palestinian] culture, there is no room for it.” He added that those changes “are not likely to occur in our lifetime.”

    Asked if the establishment of a Palestinian state is still the goal of U.S. policy, Huckabee replied, “I don’t think so.” He went on to mull the carving out of land from a Muslim-majority country for Palestinians, rather than a future homeland for them coming from the area currently controlled by Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

    The comments by Huckabee, a Donald Trump political appointee and ardent pro-Israel Evangelical Christian, have been interpreted as a signal that the Trump administration is potentially breaking away from long-standing U.S. policy. Adding credence to that view has been the administration’s antipathy toward the U.N. conference on the two-state solution, due to convene in New York from June 17-20.

    As a 25-year veteran of the Israeli Foreign Service who served in the embassy in Washington twice, I know that such a turn in U.S. policy is possible. But it is not without difficulties, as the Trump administration will need to present an alternative plan for resolving the conflict.

    President Trump has recently shown he is prepared to break with long-standing U.S policies, as was the case in his decision to lift sanctions on Syria and meet with the country’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa – to the great surprise of many. But calling it quits on the two-state solution is different – it could lead to the further destabilization of an already unstable region.

    What is the two-state solution?

    For the past quarter-century, U.S. policy – endorsed by Republican and Democratic administrations alike – has advocated for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through the advancement of a two-state solution. In practical terms, this means the establishment of a Palestinian state encompassing the Palestinian people currently living in the occupied West Bank and possibly the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, alongside the state of Israel.

    The idea that these two coexisting states could provide a permanent end to the conflict formally came to prominence in June 2002 as part of the Road Map to Peace for the Middle East Conflict announced by U.S. President George W. Bush and adopted by the International Quartet on the Middle East, comprising the U.S., Russia, European Union and the U.N.

    U.S. President George W. Bush, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, left, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Aqaba, Jordan, in June 2003.
    Hussein Malla/AFP via Getty Images

    U.S. Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama took active steps to advance the two-state solution, including direct involvement in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.

    And in his first term, Trump presented his own plan, which he called the “Deal of the Century.” With the subheading “a realistic two-state solution,” it laid out a path to Palestinian statehood if the Palestinians’ political leadership met a set of benchmarks.

    President Joe Biden continuously raised the two-state solution as the most viable way to resolve the conflict – even after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas and the war subsequently launched by Israel in Gaza.

    But for years, international observers have worried about the viability of the two-state solution in the face of opposition from right-wing Israeli governments, continued Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank, and weak and divided Palestinian leadership and polity. Yet the alternatives – including continued Israeli occupation, a one-state solution or a confederation with Jordan – are viewed as less viable options.

    Galvanizing support behind statehood

    For these reasons, the two-state solution remains the most acceptable formula to much of the international community.

    Member states of the European Union, Arab countries, as well as most countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa, have been advocating for decades for the implementation of the two-state solution and have incorporated it into their foreign policies.

    The upcoming U.N. conference in New York, to be chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, intends to underscore the importance of getting to a two-state outcome.

    While there is no real expectation the conference will lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state anytime soon, it aims to galvanize international support for the concept of Palestinian statehood.

    Huckabee’s comments were made in the context of the U.N. conference. And they are of no real surprise: Huckabee’s personal views on the subject are very well known.

    But the former Arkansas governor is now the United States’ representative in Israel, and that gives his words weight.

    Warning or notice of intent?

    While there was wide speculation that the comments reflect a change in U.S. policy, the Trump administration did not rush to endorse them – but nor did it distance itself from Huckabee’s words.

    As the war in Gaza continues, there is a growing realization among leading Republicans as well as mainstream Democrats in the U.S. that talk of advancing the two-state solution is premature if not unrealistic at present, especially taking into account the stern opposition of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s nationalist-religious government.

    But that does not suggest the Trump administration has necessarily steered away from this option for the future.

    Rather, it could be that the U.S. administration has calculated that as it devotes efforts to ending the war in Gaza, at least temporarily, and securing the release of the remaining Israeli hostages being held, talk of a two-state solution now is counterproductive to its efforts.

    And Huckabee’s comments may be aimed more at those delegates shortly arriving in New York for the U.N. summit, serving as a warning rather than a notice of intent.

    In a cable sent from the State Department to U.S. embassies around the world, American diplomats were reportedly asked to discourage countries from participating in the conference – not because the U.S. is “disowning” the two-state solution, but rather because the administration believes the conference may undermine its current efforts.

    The cable stated that the U.S. opposes any steps that unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state, which it feels “adds significant legal and political obstacles to the eventual resolution of the conflict.”

    The wording was not coincidental. U.S. policy has been consistent over the years in stating that any resolution of the conflict should be reached through negotiations between the main parties – the Israeli government and Palestinian representatives – which need to refrain from taking any unilateral steps.

    A man walks in front of a sign with portraits of U.S. President Donald Trump and Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee in central Jerusalem on May 7, 2025.
    Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images

    Getting ahead of policy

    Notwithstanding all this, Huckabee’s comments were not made in a vacuum.

    While the U.S. administration has not formally moved away from the two-state formula, there is a growing number of conservatives in Congress, as well as in the Washington think-tank community, that see an opportunity to bring a change in U.S. policy in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks.

    In his first term, Trump was relatively tepid in his approach. So far in his second term, he has given little sign of where he stands on the issue. Huckabee’s comments, in this regard, may have been a subtle nudge – with the ambassador getting ahead of where he hopes policy is heading.

    Dan Arbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Two-state solution in the Middle East has been a core US policy for 25 years – is the Trump administration eyeing a change? – https://theconversation.com/two-state-solution-in-the-middle-east-has-been-a-core-us-policy-for-25-years-is-the-trump-administration-eyeing-a-change-258753

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: US Army’s image of power and flag-waving rings false to Gen Z weary of gun violence − and long-term recruitment numbers show it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacob Ware, Adjunct Professor of Domestic Terrorism, Georgetown University

    A recruit participates in the Army’s future soldier prep course at Fort Jackson in Columbia, S.C., on Sept. 25, 2024. AP Photo/Chris Carlson

    The U.S. Army will celebrate its 250th birthday on Saturday, June 14, 2025, with a parade in Washington, D.C., in which about 6,600 soldiers and heavy pieces of military equipment will roll through the streets. The parade aims to display the Army’s history and power.

    “It’s going to be incredible,” President Donald Trump recently said. Trump’s 79th birthday also occurs on June 14.

    Despite the festivities, however, the parade will occur amid bleak times for the U.S. military, as it experiences a multiyear decline in recruitment numbers. In the face of a pandemic and a strong civilian job market, the Army, Air Force and Navy all missed their recruitment goals in 2022 and 2023. In 2022, the Army missed its quota by 25%.

    In 2024, the U.S. military met its recruitment target, which supports the argument that the bump is not due to Trump, as recruitment levels began to rise again before his reelection. But in some cases, the U.S. military has met its recruitment goals by lowering target numbers.

    And as a scholar of terrorism and targeted violence, I believe a close reading of available data on military recruitment suggests U.S. gun violence may be largely to blame for the lack of interest in joining the military.

    Gun violence data

    Regardless of one’s personal politics, the data on U.S. gun violence makes for painful reading.

    Almost 47,000 Americans died from gun-related injuries in 2023. In 2022, there were 51 school shootings in which students were injured or killed by guns. And gun injuries are the leading cause of death for Americans between ages 1 and 19.

    Data about the perceptions of gun violence is equally staggering, especially among American youth between ages 14 and 30.

    Four out of five American youth believe gun violence to be a problem, and 25% have endured real active-shooter lockdowns, according to data compiled by Everytown for Gun Safety, where I serve as a survivor fellow, the Southern Poverty Law Center and American University’s Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab.

    Moreover, these perceptions have considerable impacts on youth mental health and their sense of safety. Studies have linked concern over school shootings among adolescents with higher rates of anxiety and trauma-related disorders.

    As Arne Duncan, who served as President Barack Obama’s secretary of education during the Sandy Hook tragedy, said in 2023: “Unfortunately, what’s now binding young people across the country together is not joy of music, or sports, or whatever, it’s really the shared pain of gun violence – and it cuts through race and class and geography and economics.”

    National security threat

    In the past couple of years, polls taken of Generation Z youth, born between 1997 and 2012, suggest mental health and mass shootings are among the most important political issues motivating this band of voters.

    Gun violence, in other words, is a national security emergency, undermining the U.S. government’s ability to protect its citizens in their schools, places of worship and communities.

    As former Marine Gen. John Allen wrote in 2019: “Americans today are more likely to experience gun violence at home than they might in many of the places to which I deployed in the name of defending our nation.”

    U.S. Army National Guard members stand outside the Army National Guard office during training on April 21, 2022, in Washington.
    AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, File

    Rewriting American culture

    Accordingly, gun violence has undercut American patriotism, corroding the U.S. government’s soft power within its own borders. Generation Z, termed by some as the “lockdown generation,” is often derided as less patriotic than its predecessors.

    Surprising Gen Z Research.

    Also, the belief in American exceptionalism is dropping among millennials, born between 1981 and 1996. That perception is combined with less confidence in U.S. global engagement and the efficacy of military solutions.

    American culture has long inspired military service, with recruits seduced by action movies and promises of heroic returns to the U.S. But American culture today is being rewired into one of suffering, pain and victimhood.

    A fear of violence

    Gun violence destroys youth tolerance for the violence that defines a career in the U.S. military.

    Internal U.S. military surveys of young Americans show that “the top three reasons young people cite for rejecting military enlistment are the same across all the services: fear of death, worries about post-traumatic stress disorder and leaving friends and family — in that order.”

    Generations already suffering a shattered sense of safety and place do not see the military as a viable option.

    The explanations the U.S. Defense Department gives for dismal recruitment levels focus on the younger generation’s supposed lack of backbone or hatred of America.

    D’elbrah Assamoi, from Cote d’Ivoire, signs her U.S. certificate of citizenship after a military training ceremony at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland, in San Antonio, Texas, in April 2023.
    Vanessa R. Adame/U.S. Air Force via AP

    Republicans, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, have blamed alleged “wokeness” for low recruitment levels.

    And the Trump administration’s statements about improving recruitment numbers over the past several months overlook both a late Biden-era surge after a pandemic slump as well as the reality that numbers remain depressed due to military services repeatedly lowering their recruitment goals.

    Very rarely are introspective questions publicly debated today about the objective attractiveness of military service or the appetite for violence among young people. The problem, I believe, is not that young people are insufficiently patriotic – it’s that they have already been fighting a war, daily, for their entire lives.

    In reversing the slide in recruitment, then, the military could improve its sensitivity to these important concerns.

    Highlighting the range of careers within the services that do not involve front-line combat and physical danger could encourage more reluctant would-be recruits to volunteer.

    Mental health support also could be made an essential element of military training and lifestyle − not a resource only for those bearing the hidden side-effects of life in the ranks. Encouraging those suffering from treatable mental health issues to seek meaning in service could also boost recruitment numbers.

    Jacob Ware is a gun violence survivor and serves as a Survivor Fellow at Everytown for Gun Safety.

    – ref. US Army’s image of power and flag-waving rings false to Gen Z weary of gun violence − and long-term recruitment numbers show it – https://theconversation.com/us-armys-image-of-power-and-flag-waving-rings-false-to-gen-z-weary-of-gun-violence-and-long-term-recruitment-numbers-show-it-257090

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US Army’s image of power and flag-waving rings false to Gen Z weary of gun violence − and long-term recruitment numbers show it

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jacob Ware, Adjunct Professor of Domestic Terrorism, Georgetown University

    A recruit participates in the Army’s future soldier prep course at Fort Jackson in Columbia, S.C., on Sept. 25, 2024. AP Photo/Chris Carlson

    The U.S. Army will celebrate its 250th birthday on Saturday, June 14, 2025, with a parade in Washington, D.C., in which about 6,600 soldiers and heavy pieces of military equipment will roll through the streets. The parade aims to display the Army’s history and power.

    “It’s going to be incredible,” President Donald Trump recently said. Trump’s 79th birthday also occurs on June 14.

    Despite the festivities, however, the parade will occur amid bleak times for the U.S. military, as it experiences a multiyear decline in recruitment numbers. In the face of a pandemic and a strong civilian job market, the Army, Air Force and Navy all missed their recruitment goals in 2022 and 2023. In 2022, the Army missed its quota by 25%.

    In 2024, the U.S. military met its recruitment target, which supports the argument that the bump is not due to Trump, as recruitment levels began to rise again before his reelection. But in some cases, the U.S. military has met its recruitment goals by lowering target numbers.

    And as a scholar of terrorism and targeted violence, I believe a close reading of available data on military recruitment suggests U.S. gun violence may be largely to blame for the lack of interest in joining the military.

    Gun violence data

    Regardless of one’s personal politics, the data on U.S. gun violence makes for painful reading.

    Almost 47,000 Americans died from gun-related injuries in 2023. In 2022, there were 51 school shootings in which students were injured or killed by guns. And gun injuries are the leading cause of death for Americans between ages 1 and 19.

    Data about the perceptions of gun violence is equally staggering, especially among American youth between ages 14 and 30.

    Four out of five American youth believe gun violence to be a problem, and 25% have endured real active-shooter lockdowns, according to data compiled by Everytown for Gun Safety, where I serve as a survivor fellow, the Southern Poverty Law Center and American University’s Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab.

    Moreover, these perceptions have considerable impacts on youth mental health and their sense of safety. Studies have linked concern over school shootings among adolescents with higher rates of anxiety and trauma-related disorders.

    As Arne Duncan, who served as President Barack Obama’s secretary of education during the Sandy Hook tragedy, said in 2023: “Unfortunately, what’s now binding young people across the country together is not joy of music, or sports, or whatever, it’s really the shared pain of gun violence – and it cuts through race and class and geography and economics.”

    National security threat

    In the past couple of years, polls taken of Generation Z youth, born between 1997 and 2012, suggest mental health and mass shootings are among the most important political issues motivating this band of voters.

    Gun violence, in other words, is a national security emergency, undermining the U.S. government’s ability to protect its citizens in their schools, places of worship and communities.

    As former Marine Gen. John Allen wrote in 2019: “Americans today are more likely to experience gun violence at home than they might in many of the places to which I deployed in the name of defending our nation.”

    U.S. Army National Guard members stand outside the Army National Guard office during training on April 21, 2022, in Washington.
    AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, File

    Rewriting American culture

    Accordingly, gun violence has undercut American patriotism, corroding the U.S. government’s soft power within its own borders. Generation Z, termed by some as the “lockdown generation,” is often derided as less patriotic than its predecessors.

    Surprising Gen Z Research.

    Also, the belief in American exceptionalism is dropping among millennials, born between 1981 and 1996. That perception is combined with less confidence in U.S. global engagement and the efficacy of military solutions.

    American culture has long inspired military service, with recruits seduced by action movies and promises of heroic returns to the U.S. But American culture today is being rewired into one of suffering, pain and victimhood.

    A fear of violence

    Gun violence destroys youth tolerance for the violence that defines a career in the U.S. military.

    Internal U.S. military surveys of young Americans show that “the top three reasons young people cite for rejecting military enlistment are the same across all the services: fear of death, worries about post-traumatic stress disorder and leaving friends and family — in that order.”

    Generations already suffering a shattered sense of safety and place do not see the military as a viable option.

    The explanations the U.S. Defense Department gives for dismal recruitment levels focus on the younger generation’s supposed lack of backbone or hatred of America.

    D’elbrah Assamoi, from Cote d’Ivoire, signs her U.S. certificate of citizenship after a military training ceremony at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland, in San Antonio, Texas, in April 2023.
    Vanessa R. Adame/U.S. Air Force via AP

    Republicans, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, have blamed alleged “wokeness” for low recruitment levels.

    And the Trump administration’s statements about improving recruitment numbers over the past several months overlook both a late Biden-era surge after a pandemic slump as well as the reality that numbers remain depressed due to military services repeatedly lowering their recruitment goals.

    Very rarely are introspective questions publicly debated today about the objective attractiveness of military service or the appetite for violence among young people. The problem, I believe, is not that young people are insufficiently patriotic – it’s that they have already been fighting a war, daily, for their entire lives.

    In reversing the slide in recruitment, then, the military could improve its sensitivity to these important concerns.

    Highlighting the range of careers within the services that do not involve front-line combat and physical danger could encourage more reluctant would-be recruits to volunteer.

    Mental health support also could be made an essential element of military training and lifestyle − not a resource only for those bearing the hidden side-effects of life in the ranks. Encouraging those suffering from treatable mental health issues to seek meaning in service could also boost recruitment numbers.

    Jacob Ware is a gun violence survivor and serves as a Survivor Fellow at Everytown for Gun Safety.

    – ref. US Army’s image of power and flag-waving rings false to Gen Z weary of gun violence − and long-term recruitment numbers show it – https://theconversation.com/us-armys-image-of-power-and-flag-waving-rings-false-to-gen-z-weary-of-gun-violence-and-long-term-recruitment-numbers-show-it-257090

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Workers need better tools and tech to boost productivity. Why aren’t companies stepping up to invest?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Head, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra

    As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers turn their attention to improving productivity growth across the economy, it will be interesting to see what the business community brings to a planned summit in August.

    Labour productivity (output per hour worked) has barely grown this decade.

    Much of the focus in the current debate has been on the role of workers (labour) and industrial relations. Less discussed has been low business investment (capital).

    Labour will be more productive if each worker can use more capital: machinery, equipment and technology. Over the medium term, providing workers with more capital – “capital deepening”, in the jargon – tends to be the main contributor to labour productivity growth.

    But business investment as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) is currently at its lowest level since the mid-1990s.

    Investment is low in both the mining and non-mining sectors. In the latest national accounts report for the March quarter, business investment in machinery and equipment fell 1.7%.

    The average worker now uses less capital equipment – machines and computers – than a decade ago. Investment just hasn’t kept pace with growth in employment.



    Read more:
    ‘Hard to measure and difficult to shift’: the government’s big productivity challenge

    Why is investment so weak?

    One possible reason was put forward by then Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe in 2023. He suggested that, during the COVID pandemic, firms concentrated on surviving. Seeking out more efficient ways to produce was a lower priority. But post-pandemic, firms seem to have been slow to pivot back to an efficiency focus.

    Another reason may be that, until recently, wage growth has been slower than the growth in prices of goods and services produced. This may have reduced the incentives for firms to invest in the equipment needed to boost labour productivity.

    A key driver of investment is profitability. Firms are more likely to fund investment from retained earnings than by borrowing or raising capital. But the share of corporate profits in the economy has been quite high in recent years. So this does not explain low investment.

    The ‘animal spirits’ are lacking

    Business confidence – what economist John Maynard Keynes famously called “animal spirits” – is another important driver.

    Share prices, both in Australia and the rest of the world, have grown strongly in recent years. The S&P/ASX 200 index of Australian share prices is close to its all-time high. This would suggest financial markets are very optimistic about the prospects of Australian companies.

    Direct surveys of Australian businesses from National Australia Bank suggest conditions (the current situation) and confidence (about the future) are around their long-term average level. So this also does not explain the low investment.

    One contributor to low investment may be that firms are applying inappropriately high “hurdle rates”. These refer to the minimum return firms expect from an investment before they will undertake it.

    Hurdle rates tend to be “sticky” over time, meaning they do not move much. Many companies still apply hurdle rates of over 12%. These were appropriate back when interest rates and inflation were much higher, but seem too high now as borrowing costs have fallen with interest rate cuts.

    The Productivity Commission has suggested one contributor to low investment could be a higher risk premium. Since the global financial crisis in 2007-08, companies and investors may have become more cautious about taking on risk.

    Another factor could be growing market power of Australian companies that dominate a sector, making them complacent rather than striving to improve their performance.

    The high degree of uncertainty

    The Reserve Bank recently compiled two measures of uncertainty. One is derived from stock markets. The other is based on the number of news articles about policy uncertainty.

    Both show the current environment is as uncertain now as it was during the early stages of the global financial crisis in 2007–08 and the COVID pandemic.

    Investment in machineray and equipment went backwards in the March quarter.
    Parilov/Shutterstock

    A common response to uncertainty is to defer decisions on both investment and hiring new workers until the outlook is clearer. A study by the Reserve Bank found that greater uncertainty did indeed reduce investment. But the size of the impact was – you guessed it – uncertain.

    What can be done?

    Business lobbies often attribute low rates of investment (and anything else they think people may not like) to “excessively high” corporate tax rates. But at 30% for large companies and 25% for small, the company tax rate is low by historical standards.

    Some multinational firms may be deterred from entering the Australian market as our company tax rate is above that in some other jurisdictions. It is hard to tell how important this effect is. Company tax is only one of many factors that affect the comparative risk and return of Australia as an investment destination.

    The Productivity Commission is investigating whether the corporate taxation system could be made more efficient rather than just lowering rates.

    In the meantime, however, firms may be encouraged to invest more by a more stable domestic economic outlook. Inflation is back within the central bank’s 2-3% target range. Employment is around an all-time high proportion of the working age population. The election has removed some political uncertainty with a government holding a clear majority.

    Businesses should stop whingeing and start providing workers with the tools they need to become more productive.

    This article is part of The Conversation’s series, The Productivity Puzzle. Read the previous article here.

    John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist in the Reserve Bank and the Australian Treasury.

    – ref. Workers need better tools and tech to boost productivity. Why aren’t companies stepping up to invest? – https://theconversation.com/workers-need-better-tools-and-tech-to-boost-productivity-why-arent-companies-stepping-up-to-invest-257806

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With Trump undoing years of progress, can the US salvage its Pacific Islands strategy?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Tidwell, Director, Center for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies, Georgetown University

    Donald Trump signs a proclamation expanding fishing rights in the Pacific Islands, April 17. Getty Images

    Since 2018, the United States has worked, albeit often haltingly, to regain its footing with Pacific Island countries. It’s done this largely by reflecting a sentiment familiar in Pacific capitals: the region is not a geopolitical backwater, but a crucial strategic zone in the 21st century.

    Spurred by China’s strategic expansion – security deals, port access, political influence – the first Trump presidency and then the Biden administration renewed the US focus on the Pacific.

    Washington was also prodded by regional allies, including New Zealand. In 2018, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said: “We unashamedly ask for the United States to engage more and we think it is in your vital interests to do so. And time is of the essence.”

    Building on the tentative steps of its predecessor, the Biden administration acted. It opened new embassies, invited Pacific leaders to the White House, unveiled a dedicated strategy for the Pacific Islands, and committed to recognising the Cook Islands and Niue.

    It also negotiated more funding for the Compacts of Free Association with the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Palau. Along with the 2022 Pacific Islands Summit, it all signalled Washington’s desire to be a better partner.

    Crucially, the Biden administration recognised climate change and the economy, not great-power rivalry, as the region’s defining security concerns. Now, much of that progress is being eroded.

    The second Trump administration has gutted key international development agencies, with the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Millennium Challenge Corporation shuttered.

    More than mere symbols, these agencies were tools of statecraft, facilitating Washington’s capacity to compete with China’s “no questions asked” development model. Their removal leaves a vacuum, which Beijing will happily fill.

    China pressing the advantage

    Other signs of retreat are equally troubling. Congressional funding for the South Pacific Tuna Treaty – which pays for access for US fishing fleets and is the primary multiparty agreement the US has with the Pacific Islands – was tripled by Biden, but remains incomplete.

    Trump recently signed an executive order opening the Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument, a 1,282,534 square kilometre protected marine zone, to commercial fishing. This might be welcomed by the US tuna fleet, but it raises questions about Washington’s commitment to the tuna treaty.

    Hoped-for expansion of US consular access, especially vital for Pacific Islanders who must travel long distances for basic services such as visa applications, is in limbo. The US embassy in Vanuatu, damaged by the earthquake in 2024, remains closed, leaving diplomats to work out of their hotel rooms.

    China, by contrast, has not slowed down. Its security pact with Solomon Islands, its police training efforts in Samoa and Kiribati, and its growing intelligence presence across the region show a clear pattern of assertiveness.

    Beijing has proven adept at offering timely, visible assistance. Its diplomats show up. Its companies build. Its promises, however opaque, are matched with resources.

    The result has not necessarily meant Pacific nations have “chosen” China. Rather, most revert to the longstanding posture of “friend to all, enemy to none”.

    In a region where non-alignment is both a survival strategy and a principle of sovereignty, the perception of US unreliability makes China’s attentions all the more welcome, or at least tolerable.

    Not a binary contest

    The US now appears to be abandoning efforts to break this cycle, and the Trump administration risks a genuine strategic error rather than a mere diplomatic misstep.

    More than distant dots on a map, the Pacific Islands control vast stretches of ocean, including key shipping lanes and undersea cables. Their diplomatic weight matters in the United Nations.

    And the region matters to Taiwan, which is recognised by 12 countries globally, three of which are in the Pacific.

    Some argue the US should press Pacific nations to “choose” between Washington and Beijing. But that approach is shortsighted and counterproductive.

    Most have no interest in being drawn into a binary contest. They seek concrete benefits – resilience funding, fair trade, visa access – not ideological alignment. Framing relationships as zero-sum contests misunderstands the region’s diplomatic logic.

    Listening to Pacific leaders

    To revive the relationship, the US will need to show up, follow through and demonstrate its partnership offers more than rhetoric.

    This would involve restoring some elements of foreign assistance, fully funding the South Pacific Tuna Treaty obligations, opening and staffing embassies, and supporting Pacific regional organisations such as the Pacific Islands Forum with meaningful recognition and resources.

    But the US review of Pacific foreign assistance (a small portion of US development aid formerly administered by USAID) has been delayed once again, and likely won’t emerge until mid-July.

    More importantly, the US will have to listen to Pacific leaders, who have articulated their priorities clearly. They do not want to be sites of contest; they want to be agents of their own futures.

    In short, the US will have to treat the Pacific Islands as sovereign equals.
    When Trump returned to the White House, he found a workable policy architecture for the Pacific. Its core elements could still be rescued.

    But continued neglect, mixed signals and cost-cutting risk hastening the outcome China seeks – a region that finds Washington unreliable. Winston Peters, now foreign minister in a new government, might want to update his 2018 call for US engagement in the Pacific – with the emphasis on reliability.

    Alan Tidwell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. With Trump undoing years of progress, can the US salvage its Pacific Islands strategy? – https://theconversation.com/with-trump-undoing-years-of-progress-can-the-us-salvage-its-pacific-islands-strategy-258679

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: It took more than a century, but women are taking charge of Australia’s economy – here’s why it matters

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Duygu Yengin, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Adelaide

    For the first time in its 124-year history, Treasury will be led by a woman.

    Jenny Wilkinson’s appointment is historic in its own right. Even more remarkable is the fact she joins Michele Bullock at the Reserve Bank and Danielle Wood at the Productivity Commission.

    Australia’s three most powerful economic institutions are now led by women economists. In economics, this is not normal. But it certainly does matter.

    Stubbornly male

    Imagine if only 17% of economics professors were men. It would feel unusual; people would ask why the field was so heavily skewed. But the reality is the opposite: 83% of economics professors in Australia are male.

    And yet, this imbalance is almost invisible. Women make up just about one-third of secondary pupils studying economics and 40% of students enrolled in economics courses at university.

    In the private sector, women economists are roughly one in three.

    So while the appointments of Wilkinson, Bullock and Wood feels groundbreaking, the profession as a whole remains stubbornly male. Still, the leadership story is worth celebrating. When young women see leaders who look like them, they’re more likely to imagine themselves in those roles too.

    As women increasingly take the helm, the old stereotype of a suit-clad man with a briefcase gives way to a broader, more inclusive image of what an economist can be.

    The public service is leading the charge. As of 2023, women held 53% of senior executive service positions in the Australian Public Service, up from 46% in 2019.

    Merit and diversity

    Thankfully, unlike other parts of the world, we live in a country where these appointments haven’t triggered claims of so-called “diversity hires”. To be clear: these female pioneers weren’t appointed because they are women.

    Each has decades of experience, technical firepower, and deep policy credentials. Wilkinson has led the Department of Finance and the Parliamentary Budget Office. Bullock has held almost every senior role at the Reserve Bank. Wood has shaped public debates on intergenerational equity and tax reform with clarity and rigour.

    The idea that diversity is somehow in tension with merit is a false binary. Diverse groups make better decisions and are more creative, especially in high-stakes settings.

    Decades of economics and business research has shown that incorporating diverse perspectives into decision-making only strengthens the outcomes. Decisions made and executed by diverse teams delivered 60% better results than those by non-diverse teams.

    Merit isn’t just what’s on paper, it’s shaped by how we judge it.

    When men and women perform equally well, success is more often credited to skill for men and to luck for women. Swap a male name for a female one on a CV, teaching evaluation or reference letter, and perceptions of competence, leadership and hireability start to shift.

    These unconscious biases don’t just affect who gets ahead; they shape how we define merit in the first place.

    Will it make a difference?

    Economics often prides itself on being objective and neutral. While the economic models may be technically gender-blind, the questions we ask and investigate rarely are.

    This is where gender diversity matters – not just in who holds the top jobs, but in what gets researched and how decisions are made. There’s growing evidence male and female economists don’t just ask different questions, they also approach problems differently.

    One study found female central bankers tend to act with greater independence and deliver lower inflation. A United States study and another in Europe showed striking gender differences in how economists think about a range of areas, including labour markets, taxation, health and the environment, and more broadly on public spending – everything from welfare to the military.

    Having more diverse perspectives doesn’t dilute economics – it deepens it. It makes the discipline more responsive to the diversity of the real-world challenges it’s meant to address.

    Economic policies impact the whole society. So does the composition of economists.

    So, what’s next?

    Of course, three women in top economic roles won’t create miracles overnight – they all operate within existing systems and structures.

    So, what can we expect from Wilkinson’s leadership? Her time at the Department of Finance suggests a steady, pragmatic hand: consultative, strategic and deeply experienced.

    Wilkinson brings bipartisan credibility, a sharp grasp of fiscal discipline, and the capacity to act decisively in a crisis, as we saw during COVID. She won’t remake Treasury overnight, but she’s well placed to lead it with rigour, integrity and a long-term view.

    This moment matters for women in economics. It shows change is possible in the profession, and it could mark the start of economic policy that truly reflects the diversity of the people it serves.

    Duygu Yengin is affiliated with the University of Adelaide, Women in Economics Network, and the Economic Society of Australia.

    – ref. It took more than a century, but women are taking charge of Australia’s economy – here’s why it matters – https://theconversation.com/it-took-more-than-a-century-but-women-are-taking-charge-of-australias-economy-heres-why-it-matters-258680

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Sunday Too Far Away at 50: how a story about Aussie shearers launched a local film industry

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Walsh, Associate Professor, Screen and Media, Flinders University

    Released 50 years ago, Sunday Too Far Away deals episodically with a group of shearers led by Foley (Jack Thompson), and the events leading up to the national shearers’ strike of 1956.

    The shearers are a ragtag group held together by rum, unionism and competitiveness – as Foley must deal with the camp cook from hell, as well as a threat to his “gun” status.

    As we celebrate the anniversary, it is hard to overstate its importance for the Australian film industry and for its producer, the South Australian Film Corporation (SAFC).

    The beginnings of a funding body

    After the Liberal and Country League had held control over the state government for 32 years under a “Playmander”, named for premier Thomas Playford, the Labor party, lead by Don Dunstan, was elected in 1970 on a progressive platform.

    As part of Dunstan’s project of moving the state’s economy away from its Playford-era reliance on manufacturing to more knowledge-based service industries, the SAFC was founded in 1972.

    Central to Dunstan’s plan was the imperative that the SAFC should produce feature films – despite an initial consultant’s report that advised against this.

    Dunstan’s plan was visionary, making South Australia the first state government to directly produce features. But it was also flawed.

    The Dunstan government authorised the SAFC to borrow A$400,000 (approximately $5 million in 2025 money) for the production of up to five features per year, with the remainder of the budgets coming from Commonwealth funds and private investors.

    Don Dunstan, then premier of South Australia, around 1972 when the South Australian Film Corporation was established.
    State Library of South Australia B 64310/106

    The plan was that the SAFC’s productions would be self-supporting within five years, with the initial pump-priming loans repaid.

    By 1973 a slate of features was in the works, though none would reach production.

    One of these was Gallipoli, to be made in conjunction with Melbourne-based Crawford Productions, with screenwriter John Dingwell attached.

    The film was shelved, but Dingwell maintained his relationship with Matt Carroll, the SAFC’s head of feature production. They developed a script titled Shearers, based on anecdotes from one of Dingwell’s relatives.

    Sunday Too Far Away (as the film was retitled) was budgeted at $231,000, with the Commonwealth Government’s Australian Film Development Corporation, established in 1970 to invest in local films, providing half this figure.

    An ‘emotional experience’

    Gil Brealey, the SAFC’s first CEO, was desperate to get a feature started and was prepared to find the whole of the budget if necessary. (The SAFC would put up an additional $14,000 in budget overruns caused by wet weather in the semi-arid locations around Port Augusta and Quorn.)

    It was a remarkable demonstration of maximum involvement by a government body intent on intervening dramatically to generate a production industry in a state that would otherwise lose out to the larger states on the eastern seaboard.

    At the recent 50th anniversary screening hosted by the SAFC, producer Matt Carroll referred to the film shoot as “an extraordinary emotional experience” for all involved, stressing the strong camaraderie among the actors, which mirrored that of the shearers in the film.

    It is useful to compare Sunday to 1971’s Wake in Fright.

    Both centre on rural male mateship, but while Wake in Fright is revolted by it, Sunday strives for an elegiac celebration that might have drawn from Henry Lawson, of union-based mateship as the only defence again the harshness of life.

    Fraught politics

    Brealey and the SAFC were functioning under enormous political pressure for this film to be not only a critical, but also a popular success.

    From the outset, the SAFC had been identified with Dunstan, and it was under almost daily attack in Parliament, led by Liberal frontbencher Stan Evans.

    Quoted in the Adelaide Advertiser in May 1975, Evans denounced the SAFC “for actively producing and manufacturing films when its role under the Act precluded it from this field”.

    He was joined in these attacks by elements of the local press, as well as a handful of filmmakers who felt slighted by talent imported by Brealey.

    The board was forced to issue a statement, complaining of

    a very small vocal minority who, apparently, find the success of the corporation personally offensive and make every effort to ‘knock’ its work.

    The acceptance of the film into the Directors’ Fortnight at Cannes, the first Australian film bestowed the honour, was a godsend. It went on to win eight of the 12 awards on offer at the Australian Film Institute Awards.

    Brealey wryly told me that “we had this appalling reputation in Adelaide and everyone else thought we were marvellous”.

    The film renaissance

    In order to shore up its local standing, the SAFC ran a film day at the Adelaide Festival Centre, culminating in a “world premiere” of Sunday attended by Gough Whitlam.

    The next day, the SAFC released the film itself in Adelaide, hiring the Warner cinema where it ran for 26 weeks under an arrangement that gave the producer the entire gross, less the exhibitor’s expenses.

    Brealey was extremely suspicious of Australian distributors. Roadshow distributed the film throughout the rest of Australia. By October, they were reporting box office grosses of over $182,000 – though the SAFC had only received $11,000 in returns.

    The bitter lesson was that SAFC had clearly been founded on overly optimistic expectations of returns to producers. Feature production in Australia would need on-going government support.

    The success of Sunday Too Far Away, followed closely by Picnic at Hanging Rock (1975) and Storm Boy (1976) succeeded in establishing the SAFC as a prime mover in Australian film.

    Locally, it won bipartisan local support for the SAFC and nationally it established a model for emulation by other states.

    It demonstrated that Australian films could combine local and international appeal, and that government agencies had a vital role at the heart of the film renaissance.

    Michael Walsh is a consultant for the SAFC on its digitisation project. He has previously written a commissioned history for the organisation.

    – ref. Sunday Too Far Away at 50: how a story about Aussie shearers launched a local film industry – https://theconversation.com/sunday-too-far-away-at-50-how-a-story-about-aussie-shearers-launched-a-local-film-industry-258576

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Like an underwater bushfire’: SA’s marine algal bloom is still killing almost everything in its path

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Barrera, PhD Candidate, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide

    Paul Macdonald of Edithburgh Diving

    South Australian beaches have been awash with foamy, discoloured water and dead marine life for months. The problem hasn’t gone away; it has spread.

    Devastating scenes of death and destruction mobilised locals along the Fleurieu Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula and Kangaroo Island. The state government has hosted emergency meetings, most recently with marine and environment experts from around Australia, and issued weekly updates.

    Unfortunately, there are few ways to stop the bloom. Scientists had hoped strong westerly winds would break it up and push it out to sea. But so far, the wild weather has just pushed it through the Murray Mouth into the Coorong. And even if the bloom is washed away this winter, it could return in spring.

    This bloom represents a stark warning to coastal communities, as well as tourism, seafood and aquaculture industries. It’s a sign of what’s to come, in Australia and around the world, as the oceans warm.

    South Australia’s marine emblem, the leafy sea dragon, washed up on Stokes Bay in Kangaroo Island during the harmful algal bloom.
    RAD KI

    An unprecedented algal bloom

    The first sign of trouble came in March this year, when dozens of surfers and beachgoers fell ill. Many reported sore eyes, coughing or trouble breathing.

    Water testing soon revealed the cause: a harmful algal bloom of Karenia mikimotoi.

    Most people felt better within hours or days of leaving the beach. But marine life of all kinds was washing up dead or dying.

    Fish habitat charity OzFish set up a new citizen science project to capture the data, using iNaturalist.

    OzFish SA project manager Brad Martin told a public forum the bloom was like an “underwater bushfire”, adding:

    It’s suffocating fish, it’s taking the oxygen out of the water and it’s producing toxins.

    Photos of dead fish, seahorses, octopuses and rays were already circulating on social media. So OzFish encouraged people to start using iNaturalist, to identify the species and capture the data.

    The data shows more than 200 species of marine creatures died, including 100 types of fish and sharks. This includes popular recreational fishing species such as flathead, squid, crabs and rock lobsters.

    Almost half the deaths were ray-finned fish species. A quarter were sharks and ray species. Then came soft-bodied “cephalopods” such as cuttlefish and octopus, and crustaceans such as crabs, lobsters and prawns.

    Most of these species live on or near the sea floor with small home ranges. As in a bushfire, they have little chance of escape. Other fish that live in the open ocean, such as whiting, snapper and tuna, can swim away.

    Ray-finned fish, sharks and rays dominate the death toll from the marine algal bloom, as recorded on iNaturalist.
    Brad Martin, OzFish

    The culprit

    K. mikimotoi is a type of microalgae. It uses sunlight and carbon dioxide to grow and divide, releasing oxygen.

    In calm conditions, with plenty of light and warmth, the algal cells divide rapidly. Ideal conditions for algal growth are becoming more common as the climate changes and seas warm.

    Algal toxins are known to cause illness and sometimes death in humans, pets and livestock.

    K. mikimotoi is lethal to marine life, not humans. But the toxic effects in marine life are complicated and poorly understood.

    The algae irritates fish gills, causing cell death and bleeding. It also causes hypoxia, or lack of oxygen in the blood. And when the algae die off, decomposition consumes huge amounts of oxygen – leaving marine life to suffocate.

    Scientists now suspect other Karenia species may be involved too, due to the detection of brevetoxins in shellfish. This is the first detection of brevetoxins in Australia.

    Grim scenes greeted divers in murky water at Edithburgh on the Yorke Peninsula. (Paul Macdonald of Edithburgh Diving)

    What can be done?

    A marine heatwave is largely to blame. Sea surface temperatures have been 2.5°C warmer than usual since September. Relatively calm conditions, with little wind and small swells, also enabled the bloom to grow. Now it’s a matter of waiting for strong westerly winds to blow it all away.

    The latest update shows sea surface temperatures have stabilised. But deeper gulf and shelf waters remain 1–2°C above average for this time of the year.

    Climate change is making future blooms more likely. So tackling climate change is one way to help.

    Another is minimising the runoff of nutrients into waterways. Microalgae can be found anywhere with enough water, light and nutrients. So reducing pollution can help reduce the risk of algal blooms.

    This includes better management of fertiliser on farms and in home gardens. Lower levels of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorous will reduce the risk of future blooms in marine and inland waterways.

    When it comes to blue-green algae, flushing with freshwater and stirring it up can disperse the colonies and prevent a bloom.

    Monitoring is also important. OzFish encourages South Australians to continue providing photo reports via iNaturalist. Any new fish kills should also be reported to the state government.

    The harmful algal bloom has transformed the reef at Edithburgh Jetty on the Yorke Peninsula. (Great Southern Reef)

    Microalgae are not all bad

    It’s worth remembering life on Earth wouldn’t exist without microalgae. These tiny organisms produced 60% of the oxygen in the atmosphere today, and play an important role in balanced ecosystems.

    The algae spirulina is a common dietary supplement. Microalgae are also potentially useful for water recycling, as a renewable biofuel and for capturing and storing greenhouse gases.

    Heeding the lessons

    Once a harmful algal bloom begins, it will persist for as long as conditions remain suitable.

    This bloom already has lasted three months, and there’s no guarantee the end is near.

    Recovery will be slow, as shown in the historical record and other parts of the world. And the risk of a repeat event is high.

    Further research is needed to keep these ancient organisms in check.

    With thanks to OzFish SA project manager Brad Martin, who contributed to this article.

    Erin Barrera receives funding from The Hospital Research Foundation, through SA Health.

    – ref. ‘Like an underwater bushfire’: SA’s marine algal bloom is still killing almost everything in its path – https://theconversation.com/like-an-underwater-bushfire-sas-marine-algal-bloom-is-still-killing-almost-everything-in-its-path-257885

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AI overviews have transformed Google search. Here’s how they work – and how to opt out

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University

    cosma/Shutterstock

    People turn to the internet to run billions of search queries each year. These range from keeping tabs on world events and celebrities to learning new words and getting DIY help.

    One of the most popular questions Australians recently asked was: “How to inspect a used car?”.

    If you asked Google this at the beginning of 2024, you would have been served a list of individual search results and the order would have depended on several factors. If you asked the same question at the end of the year, the experience would be completely different.

    That’s because Google, which controls about 94% of the Australian search engine market, introduced “AI Overviews” to Australia in October 2024. These AI-generated search result summaries have revolutionised how people search for and find information. They also have significant impacts on the quality of the results.

    How do these AI search summaries work, though? Are they reliable? And is there a way to opt out?

    Synthesising the internet

    Legacy search engines work by evaluating dozens of different criteria and trying to show you the results that they think best match your search terms.

    They take into account the content itself, including how unique, current and comprehensive it is, as well as how it’s structured and organised.

    They also consider relationships between the content and other parts of the web. If trusted sources link to content, that can positively affect its placement in search results.

    They try to infer the searcher’s intent – whether they’re trying to buy something, learn something new, or solve a practical problem. They also consider technical aspects such as how fast the content loads and whether the page is secure.

    All of this adds up to an invisible score each webpage gets that affects its visibility in search results. But AI is changing all this.

    Google is the only search engine that prominently displays AI summaries on its main results page. Bing and DuckDuckGo still use traditional search result layouts, offering AI summaries only through companion apps such as Copilot and Duck.ai.

    Instead of directing users to one specific webpage, generative AI-powered search looks across webpages and sources to try to synthesise what they say. It then tries to summarise the results in a short, conversational and easy-to-understand way.

    In theory, this can result in richer, more comprehensive, and potentially more unique answers. But AI doesn’t always get it right.

    Google is the only search engine that prominently displays AI summaries on its main results page.
    DIA TV/Shutterstock

    How reliable are AI searches?

    Early examples of Google’s AI-powered search from 2024 suggested users eat “at least one small rock per day” – and that they could use non-toxic glue to help cheese stick to pizza.

    One issue is that machines are poorly equipped to detect satire or parody and can use these materials to respond in place of fact-based evidence.

    Research suggests the rate of so-called “hallucinations” – instances of machines making up answers – is getting worse even as the models driving them are getting more sophisticated.

    Machines can’t actually determine what’s true and false. They cannot grasp the nuances of idioms and colloquial language and can only make predictions based on fancy maths. But these predictions don’t always end up being correct, which is an issue – especially for sensitive medical or health questions or when seeking financial advice.

    Rather than just present a summary, Google’s more recent AI overviews have also started including links to sources for key aspects of the answer. This can help users gauge the quality of the overall answer and see where AI might be getting its information from. But evidence suggests sometimes AI search engines cite sources that don’t include the information they claim they do.

    What are the other impacts of AI search?

    AI search summaries are transforming the way information is produced and discovered, reshaping the search engine ecosystem we’ve grown accustomed to over two decades.

    They are changing how information-seekers formulate search queries – moving from keywords or phrases to simple questions, such as those we use in everyday conversation.

    For content providers, AI summaries introduce significant shifts – undermining traditional search engine optimisation techniques, reducing direct traffic to websites, and impacting brand visibility.

    Notably, 43% of AI Overviews link back to Google itself. This reinforces Google’s dominance as a search engine and as a website.

    The forthcoming integration of ads into AI summaries raises concerns about the trustworthiness and independence of the information presented.

    Some internet users are switching search engines entirely and turning to providers that don’t provide AI summaries, such as Bing and DuckDuckGo.
    Casimiro PT/Shutterstock

    Where to from here?

    People should always be mindful of the key limitations of AI summaries.

    Asking for simple facts such as, “What is the height of Uluru?” may yield accurate answers.

    But posing more complex or divisive questions, such as, “Will the 2032 Olympics bankrupt Queensland?”, may require users to open links and delve deeper for a more comprehensive understanding.

    Google doesn’t offer a clear option to turn this feature off entirely. Perhaps the simplest way is to click on the “Web” tab under the search bar on the search results, or to add “-ai” to the search query. But this can get repetitive.

    Some more technical solutions are manually creating a site search filter through Chrome settings. But these require an active act by the user.

    As a result, some developers are offering browser extensions that claim to remove this aspect. Other users are switching search engines entirely and turning to providers that don’t provide AI summaries, such as Bing and DuckDuckGo.

    T.J. Thomson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is an affiliate with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society.

    Ashwin Nagappa receives funding fromthe Australian Research Council. He is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the QUT node of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society.

    Shir Weinbrand receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a PhD candidate in the QUT node of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision Making & Society.

    – ref. AI overviews have transformed Google search. Here’s how they work – and how to opt out – https://theconversation.com/ai-overviews-have-transformed-google-search-heres-how-they-work-and-how-to-opt-out-258282

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Conversation scoops two awards in one night, including Podcast Publisher of the Year

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Head of Audio, The Conversation UK

    The Conversation UK’s Head of Audio, Gemma Ware, at the Publisher Podcast Awards on June 11.

    The Conversation’s audio team is celebrating a very successful night at the Publisher Podcast awards where The Conversation won Podcast Publisher of the Year.

    The judges said: “This particular publisher has been entering these awards since the start and it’s been a real honour to watch their work grow in quality and depth each year, to the point they were placed in the top 3 of every single category they entered this year.”

    We were also thrilled that our recent series Scam Factories won the Best Investigative Podcast category in a very strong field. The series exposed the brutal workings of scam centres in south east Asia where thousands of people, many tricked into being there, are forced to work scamming others around the world. We worked with three researchers on a multimedia project and three part podcast series that involved producers and translators in Cambodia, China and Uganda.

    We’re a small team working across multiple time zones to bring academic expertise and research to new audiences in audio and I’m thrilled that our type of journalism has been recognised in this way.

    You can listen to all episodes of Scam Factories, now available on The Conversation Documentaries feed and explore the accompanying multimedia series.

    Visit our podcast page to explore our other podcasts including The Conversation Weekly, Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics and The Conversation’s Curious Kids.

    – ref. The Conversation scoops two awards in one night, including Podcast Publisher of the Year – https://theconversation.com/the-conversation-scoops-two-awards-in-one-night-including-podcast-publisher-of-the-year-258879

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Air India crash: what do we know about the Boeing 787 Dreamliner involved? Expert Q&A

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Elham, Professor of Design Optimisation, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, University of Southampton

    Motive56 / Shutterstock

    An Air India plane bound for London Gatwick airport crashed shortly after take-off on 12 January in Ahmedabad, western India. Flight AI171 was carrying 242 people, including 169 Indian nationals, 53 Britons, seven Portuguese and one Canadian.

    Here, Professor Ali Elham, from the University of Southampton’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, speaks to The Conversation’s Paul Rincon about the plane involved in the crash, Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner.

    How does Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner differ from other passenger planes?

    The Dreamliner was a huge breakthrough in aircraft design. For example, it was the first Boeing aircraft with more than 50% composite material in its structure. In this case, composite material refers mainly to carbon fibre. This carbon fibre was replacing parts of the structure that would have been made from aluminium in previous types of aircraft. This contributed to a huge reduction in aircraft weight.

    There were many innovations in the 787, making it very different from previous iterations of Boeing aircraft, such as the 747 and 767.

    The combination of new engines, improved aerodynamics, and significant weight reduction – largely due to the use of composite materials – resulted in notable reductions in both fuel consumption and carbon emissions compared to previous-generation aircraft. Another feature was the greatly increased electrification of the plane, with more use of batteries for onboard power systems.

    What is the Dreamliner’s safety record like?

    The Dreamliner has a very good safety record and has been flying for many years without significant problems. But when the plane was new, in 2013 or so, there were a few incidents in which the aircraft’s lithium-ion batteries overheated, in some cases resulting in smoke or even catching fire, both on the ground and during flight. There were no casualties and the aircraft were all able to land safely. But Boeing grounded all Dreamliners for a few months.

    Boeing intensively investigated the problem. They redesigned the batteries, they redesigned the battery containers and then they ran tests and an extensive certification process that allowed them to return the Dreamliners to flight. Since then, there have been no incidents with batteries as far as I am aware.

    Batteries were used instead of getting power from the gas turbines in the engines. The power is used for instruments, for electronics and many other aircraft systems. Increased electrification – getting more of the aircraft’s power from batteries – contributes to reducing carbon emissions, because the gas turbines run on kerosene.

    Do any details currently known about the crash narrow down the search for the cause?

    It’s too early to say anything about the cause of the crash, and as far as I’m aware no official details have been released about the cause.

    Generally speaking, however, when you investigate air crashes, they often involve a chain of problems. One thing happens, then a number of events follow from that. So it might not be one cause here.

    This crash occurred shortly after takeoff. While flying is statistically the safest form of transport, the takeoff and landing phases are generally considered the most critical. This is because aircraft operate closer to the ground, with less time and altitude to respond to technical issues or sudden changes. Although not inherently dangerous, these phases carry a higher risk of incidents compared to cruising at altitude.

    What will the crash investigation focus on?

    They will investigate everything. They will search for the data recorders (black boxes), which are designed to survive a crash. If these are recovered, investigators will be able to view all the flight data, hear all the cockpit conversations. They will take all the information from the control tower. Sometimes clues can be found from all this data. They will also examine the wreckage of the aircraft in detail.

    It’s a different situation from the Boeing 737 Max groundings, which followed two crashes linked to a specific and repeatable software flaw. Similarly, when the Dreamliner first entered service, a series of battery overheating incidents revealed a systemic issue that led regulators to temporarily ground the fleet.

    In the current case, unless investigators identify a recurring technical problem that poses an immediate risk to other 787s, a fleet-wide grounding would be unlikely. Safety is always the top priority, but regulatory responses typically depend on whether an issue appears to be isolated or part of a broader pattern.

    It must be said that the 787 Dreamliner has a very good safety record. It had a very long certification period with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the US.

    Ali Elham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Air India crash: what do we know about the Boeing 787 Dreamliner involved? Expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/air-india-crash-what-do-we-know-about-the-boeing-787-dreamliner-involved-expert-qanda-258853

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tornado is a Scottish samurai-western film – genres with a long-shared history

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Wroot, Senior Lecturer in Film Studies, University of Greenwich

    Tornado fuses aspects of the western and samurai-style action in atmospheric 18th-century Scotland. Critics have praised the performances of Tim Roth, Jack Lowden and newcomer Kôki who plays the titular Tornado.

    Director John Maclean’s appreciation of both westerns and samurai films is undeniable in Tornado, a stylistic tale of revenge, violence and stolen gold. Any filmmaker’s visual flair and storytelling choices stand out against these conventions. This was also the case with Maclean’s excellent revisionist take on the western genre, Slow West, which was released in 2015.

    The western and the samurai film are not as popular as they once were, especially in the 1960s and 70s. But their characteristics are still hugely influential, as Tornado demonstrates. The film highlights specific parallels between the two genres. In particular, tales of lone warriors, gangs of greedy bandits, violent revenge and stolen treasure, are recurring motifs in both cinematic traditions.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    In most Hollywood films, any character who wields a samurai sword is referred to as a samurai. However, a samurai sword might be wielded by a soldier, a yakuza or a ronin (a wandering lone swordsman).

    The real samurai were salaried warriors, who swore loyalty to a local lord in Japan’s medieval era, in return for money, food and shelter. They typically use a long sword (katana) and two shorter swords, known as the wakizashi and the tanto.

    But as Japanese swords are most often associated with samurai in western culture, the name has stuck. In Japan, such films are more likely to be called chanbara (sword-action) films. This includes Tornado, which will most likely be marketed as a chanbara title if it is released in Japan.

    In Japan, Fujin (Takehiro Hira) and his daughter Tornado will be seen as closer to wandering swordsman characters from long-running series, like the Zatoichi franchise, than samurai.

    The trailer for Tornado.

    Western-samurai influences

    One of the most influential Japanese films to have samurai in the title is clearly a touchstone for Tornado. Akira Kurosawa’s Seven Samurai (1954) has produced many remakes, including two film versions of The Magnificent Seven (released in 1960 and 2016), and intergalactic adaptations such as Battle Beyond The Stars (1980).

    The antagonists in Seven Samurai were bandits, which is also the case in Tornado. The unlikely gang is made up of characters with various deadly skills, as were the heroes in the 1954 epic.

    Akira Kurosawa’s Rashomon (1950) and Yojimbo (1961) were also remade as westerns. The Outrage and A Fistful of Dollars were released in 1964. Some of the most famous and popular samurai films involve stories of swordsmen banding together, or taking on villains alone – plots which can be easily adapted to the wild west setting.

    Still, influence works both ways. Akira Kurosawa was an admirer of John Ford’s western films before his own work was remade in Hollywood. Various other Japanese pictures, from The Rambling Guitarist (1959) to Sukiyaki Western Django (2007), have paid homage to westerns over the years. And in 2013, Japanese actor Ken Watanabe starred in a Japanese remake of Clint Eastwood’s award-winning film Unforgiven (originally released in 1992).

    Nine films that were inspired by Seven Samurai.

    Similarly to Japanese period films, westerns continue to be made, though far fewer. With lower budgets often comes revisionist takes on their historical setting, alongside the reduced chances of actually making a western in the US. Slow West (2015) and The Power of the Dog (2021) were predominantly filmed in New Zealand.

    In Australia there is also a long history of the outback western, often set in the 19th century. The Proposition (2005) is a celebrated 21st century example.

    So Tornado is in good company. And Maclean has made a sound decision to take samurai and western cinematic influences to Scotland. At the time of writing, no historical evidence confirms the possibility of wandering Japanese swordsmen in this part of the world in the 18th century. But in film history, samurai and gunslingers have travelled around the world many times.

    Jonathan Wroot does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tornado is a Scottish samurai-western film – genres with a long-shared history – https://theconversation.com/tornado-is-a-scottish-samurai-western-film-genres-with-a-long-shared-history-258251

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK’s small businesses should be fuelling the country’s growth ambitions. Here’s why that’s not happening

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Danny Buckley, Workplace Learning Director, Loughborough University

    Today a van, tomorrow the world … with the right support. jgolby/Shutterstock

    The UK government’s spending review has set out its priorities for the next three years. But behind the rhetoric about boosting growth lies growing concern about small businesses being locked out of the wider UK economy. Government funding and regulation are increasingly out of step with the reality of micro-enterprises and sole traders, shutting off their potential to boost GDP growth.

    These businesses already punch above their weight, accounting for 60% of private-sector employment and more than half of total business turnover. Yet while recent budgets have pushed up costs through higher employer national insurance (NI) contributions and minimum wage rises, little meaningful relief has been offered in return.

    As a result, a recent British Chambers of Commerce survey found that 82% of businesses expect the NI hike to damage their business. More than half say it will affect recruitment plans, prices and day-to-day operations.

    Working with small businesses, apprentices and local enterprise leaders, we have seen how government support schemes often fail to reach those who need them most. Our research into informal work and legitimacy shows that many micro-businesses (ten employees or fewer) and sole traders operate in a space where regulatory demands feel misaligned with their economic reality.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Across the UK, many micro-businesses already operate on a thin margin. For some, formal compliance with tax, labour and reporting obligations is simply out of reach. This is not due to unwillingness, but rather to a lack of manpower and time. In short, it is not about criminality, but survival.

    And when formality becomes unviable, the government loses out too through reduced tax receipts, lower NI contributions and missed opportunities for growth.

    In our research, we’ve found that formal and informal business owners don’t reject regulation outright. They reject complex systems that demand compliance without offering security. When the risks of being “seen” by the taxman outweigh the benefits, informality becomes a rational, even morally justifiable, choice.

    Informality is a significant global issue. According to the 2025 report by the International Labour Organization, even in high-income countries like the UK around one in ten workers are informally employed. And more than 60% of these people are working within formal enterprises, typically as undeclared workers.

    Informal work is most common in service and construction industries, and despite high education levels, nearly one in four informal workers lives below the poverty line. This compares to just 14% of formal workers.

    Barriers to growth

    In the UK, regulatory structures can make matters worse. The VAT threshold, recently raised to £90,000, may appear generous. But it can act as a cliff edge, discouraging small businesses from growing.

    Evidence from the International Monetary Fund shows that firms often intentionally limit turnover to avoid registration. Compliance costs and administrative burdens create a clear disincentive to scaling up.

    The slowdown is measurable. Small businesses reduce growth by up to 25% as they near the threshold, with no rebound in performance post-registration. This suggests a structural effect rather than temporary caution. Around one in five firms reports actively avoiding VAT registration by turning down work or restructuring operations. It’s a clear sign that the system discourages formal expansion.

    ‘Off-the-books’ workers – even those employed by big firms – are more likely to live in poverty.
    Irene Miller/Shutterstock

    These structural barriers don’t end with taxation. Even when support schemes are well designed and effective on paper, many small firms find themselves excluded by eligibility criteria or overwhelmed by the administrative requirements. For example, the Help to Grow: Management programme has delivered clear value, equipping thousands of SME (small and medium-sized enterprises) with vital skills in strategy, finance and innovation.

    However, it is limited to businesses with five or more employees. This excludes sole traders, some micro-businesses and early-stage entrepreneurs, among others. These smaller firms, often operating informally or semi-formally, are arguably those most in need of accessible, flexible support. By overlooking them, even well-intentioned programmes risk reinforcing the gaps they aim to close.



    Read more:
    How much for cash? Why the informal economy is bad for business, consumers and society

    Apprenticeship policy highlights another example of unintended exclusion. While apprenticeships are promoted as a win-win for employers and learners, the funding rules and regulations are typically geared towards larger organisations.

    For micro-businesses, the system often feels impenetrable. The administrative burden and cash-flow implications of taking someone away from their role to train them frequently outweigh the perceived benefits.

    Adding to these challenges are the recent changes to Level 7 apprenticeship funding rules, in the form of age restrictions. This raises concerns about whether smaller employers will continue investing in leadership and skills development.

    As a result, some of the smallest firms, particularly in personal services, trades, and early-stage startups, miss leadership development opportunities. This is not because they lack interest in training, but because the system was not designed with their scale or reality in mind.

    If the government wants to support small businesses, it must move beyond one-size-fits-all tax tweaks and headline grants. It has signalled a commitment to fiscal efficiency and targeted growth. What’s needed is a new model of support – one that recognises the complexity of informality, business growth and builds trust and opens routes into formal economic participation.

    This means creating tailored support and offering incentives to grow and develop for sole traders, self-employed people, and micro-businesses rather than penalising them. The government must simplify support mechanisms and ensure they are genuinely accessible – particularly for time-poor micro-businesses.

    It should move beyond rigid digital portals and offer relationship-based support through local networks, trusted intermediaries or one-to-one guidance. Crucially, access to skills programmes, including apprenticeships, should be guaranteed for businesses of all sizes, not just those large enough to navigate complex eligibility criteria or absorb upfront costs.

    Without these measures, the UK will only deepen its two-tier economy – where formality becomes a privilege rather than a pathway. Building a fairer, more dynamic business environment starts by including those already doing the work, even if they are not yet on the books.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The UK’s small businesses should be fuelling the country’s growth ambitions. Here’s why that’s not happening – https://theconversation.com/the-uks-small-businesses-should-be-fuelling-the-countrys-growth-ambitions-heres-why-thats-not-happening-258451

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why can’t we stop feeding monkeys? Experts explain the reasons behind a dangerous habit

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sian Waters, Research fellow at the Department of Anthropology, Durham University

    A monkey waits for food from tourists in Thailand.
     Miroslaw Gierczyk/Shutterstock

    We’ve seen it happen. For example, a visit to the Ouzoud waterfalls in Morocco’s High Atlas led to an encounter with a group of nearby tourists feeding chips – supplied by the tour guide – to some waiting Barbary macaques. Pointing to a nearby sign that read “do not feed the monkeys” was met with complaints about spoiling their fun.

    Scenes like this play out across the globe. Feeding wild primates is common in many countries. Scientists have spent years studying its effects on primate behaviour. But much less attention has been paid to the other side of the interaction – the people doing the feeding.

    Our recent research explores not just the effects on animals, but why people feed monkeys in the first place. Understanding that is essential if we want to change behaviour and keep both humans and primates safe.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    As tourism expands and infrastructure develops, humans and primates are living in closer quarters than ever before. Some species like macaques and baboons readily adapt to living in developed areas by foraging in rubbish bins and dumps.

    Habitat loss also plays a major role. The wide scale destruction of primate habitat means they come to rely on human food waste or people feeding them.

    In some tourism hot spots, feeding the primates, known as “provisioning”, is deliberate but regulated, ensuring tourists see the monkeys but cannot feed them. In others, tourists feed even endangered species freely, with little oversight. That’s when problems arise.

    Thieving monkeys steal from tourists and barter for treats on BBC’s Planet Earth.

    Uncontrolled feeding brings animals and humans into unusually close contact, and not always in welcome ways. Primates can become aggressive, resulting in bites, scratches and potential disease transmission. They may enter homes and shops, damage property, or intimidate people. Some primates even learn to beg or to steal valuables, returning them only when a food bribe is offered in exchange.

    When food sources suddenly disappear, this type of behaviour can escalate. For example, during the pandemic, some macaque populations in Thailand made headlines as “gangs” that caused chaos when tourists stopped visiting. When animals are seen as a public nuisance, calls for culling or relocation often follow.



    Read more:
    Why monkeys attack people – a primate expert explains

    Nutrition is another issue. The types of foods given to primates are usually calorie-rich and highly processed. Excess consumption of these foods can make primates obese or lead to chronic disease like diabetes. The extra calories allow some species to reproduce every year, leading to larger group sizes and compounding human-wildlife conflict.

    Feeding of packaged foods also results in large amounts of plastic and other litter left behind by people. New roads contribute to this problem by offering opportunities to vendors to sell food to road users. The resulting food waste can attract monkeys to the roadside where passing motorists throw them more food. This puts both people and primates at risk of road accidents.

    Some societies have fed monkeys for centuries and these interactions can be neutral or positive. However, many instances of people feeding primates causes negative interactions, so understanding why people feed monkeys is vital.

    Feeding wildlife often results in plastic waste.
    maxontravel/Shutterstock

    Why people do it

    As primate experts, we deal with the negative effects of uncontrolled monkey feeding all the time and know the complexities of this common human behaviour. Our recent review of the relevant research coupled with our own field experiences found a surprising range of motivations for why people feed primates.

    We found that feeding primates could be a religious obligation, a way to perform a good deed or obtain good fortune. It may be helpful in managing a person’s mental health. Many people feed primates for emotional reasons like pity, or to feel a connection to the animals.

    At some sites, residents have a vested interest in the continued practice of monkey feeding as it provides them with an income. Tour guides often receive higher tips when they can provide close animal encounters. Bus and taxi drivers can benefit from taking tourists to sites where they can observe and feed wild primates.



    Read more:
    Three surprising reasons human actions threaten endangered primates

    Attempting to stop people from feeding primates is difficult as most perceive it as an enjoyable and carefree activity. Campaigns must be carefully designed and relevant to the local context. This includes understanding why people are feeding primates in the first place.

    As scientists we need to better communicate the negative effects of feeding primates to a wider audience. We also need to prevent it from becoming an accepted activity, particularly in areas that could prove dangerous to both people and primates, such as roadsides.

    Unfortunately, there is no one-size-fits-all approach. But talking to people who feed primates to understand why they do it is fundamental for designing effective management strategies in future.

    Sian Waters is affiliated with the IUCN SSC Primate Specialist Group’s Section for Human-Primate Interactions (SHPI) and receives funding from

    Artis Zoo, Amsterdam, NL
    Ouwehand Zoo Foundation NL
    Re:Wild

    Tracie McKinney is affiliated with the IUCN SSC Primate Specialist Group’s Section for Human-Primate Interactions (SHPI).

    – ref. Why can’t we stop feeding monkeys? Experts explain the reasons behind a dangerous habit – https://theconversation.com/why-cant-we-stop-feeding-monkeys-experts-explain-the-reasons-behind-a-dangerous-habit-257485

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Brian Wilson’s visionary songwriting held unmatched emotional power. And in person he never disappointed

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Scott, Head of Division, School of Business and Creative Industries, University of the West of Scotland

    Brian Wilson, the Beach Boy and visionary composer whose groundbreaking music reshaped the sound of American pop, died on June 11. I had the pleasure of meeting Wilson several times, but first met with the great man through my friend David Leaf, whose writing is key to understanding Wilson’s music and humanity.

    Wilson never disappointed. He was always unpredictable, always quirky and always delightfully Brian. On one occasion some friends and I interviewed him in a Mayfair hotel where – ever the trouper – he was helping promote a not-very-good Beach Boys collaboration with Status Quo.

    We took him a side of Scottish smoked salmon as a gift against the advice of his wife Melinda who smiled sagely as he ripped the packet open and devoured it on the spot while patiently answering questions on Beach Boys minutiae.

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    The legend of Wilson’s songwriting and production genius is often said to rest on two albums. First the Beach Boys’ Pet Sounds (1966) and then its intended follow up SMiLE! which he started in 1966 and eventually finished in 2004.

    Sometimes overlooked, though, is the fact that Pet Sounds was preceded by 11 hit Beach Boys albums, many hit singles on both sides of the Atlantic, and worlds of innovation and influential new studio practices.

    Wilson’s self-taught, monastic, note-by-note transcriptions of performances by The Four Freshmen and the orchestral works of George Gershwin were key to this innovation. As was his willingness to push the boundaries of recorded sound, layering complex and dynamic musical ideas by directing several musicians in hallowed Los Angeles recording studios such as Gold Star, Capitol and Western Recorders.

    Wilson the hitmaker

    Early Wilson productions reveal a contemporary hitmaker who was willing to embrace unusual structures and non-standard rock instrumentation (marimba, harpsichord, harp and bass harmonica) while leaving oceans of space for the Beach Boys’ peerless harmonies. These rich, jazz-influenced vocal arrangements were often double- and triple-tracked (a recording technique that layers the same parts of the song to create a fuller sound).

    But Wilson also had the hitmakers’ instinct for collaboration. A series of lyricists including Gary Usher, Roger Christian, Tony Asher and fellow Beach Boy Mike Love helped further elevate his music, either in terms of its thematic commercial appeal or (as in his work with Van Dyke Parks) as a series of conceptual artworks.

    Brian Wilson in the studio recording Good Vibrations in 1966.

    While albums such as The Beach Boys Today! (1965) pointed a clear path to the introspection of Pet Sounds in songs like In the Back of My Mind and Please Let Me Wonder (both 1965), it is the latter album that remains one of the most famous examples of sustained artistry in 20th-century popular music. It solidified the idea of Wilson not just as a “genius” (a tag originated by publicist Derek Taylor) but more substantially as an expressionistic auteur.

    After announcing the shelving of his experimental album SMiLE! in 1967, Wilson famously withdrew from public life. But I would argue that that well-known retreat was less of a withdrawal than the 20-years-in-bed legend would have it.

    Although increasingly in poor health, he made important contributions to Beach Boys albums throughout the 1970s, most famously his fully-fledged return as songwriter and producer in the cult classic The Beach Boys Love You (1977). He also played a major role in projects like the beautiful American Spring album, which Wilson produced with his collaborator David Sandler for his first wife Marilyn and her sister Diane in 1972.

    My encounters with Wilson

    The late 1980s saw Wilson’s substantial second act eventually begin with a highly regarded eponymous 1988 solo album. Later – freed from the control of abusive psychotherapist Eugene Landy and with the support of second wife Melinda and the amazing musicians that became the Brian Wilson band – he enjoyed one of the great third acts in music history from the 2000s onwards.

    During this period, he recorded acclaimed solo albums (including a revisiting of the works of his greatest hero in the wonderful Brian Wilson Reimagines Gershwin) and toured extensively.

    Around this time, composer Duglas T. Stewart and I interviewed him for the liner notes of our tribute album Caroline Now! (2000) down the phone from his home in Los Angeles, where Wilson grappled comically with multiple phone lines. In response to a question about the influence of Wendy Carlos’s Switched On Bach album (1968) on his 1970s synthesiser arranging he yelped: “You know what, I have this in my CD player RIGHT NOW!”

    The subsequent clatter of him trying to locate the CD with many barking dogs in the background seemed like a magical sound moment. And a very Brian sound moment.

    People tend to define Wilson primarily through his fragility or his long struggle with poor mental health. Those are important factors in any life and put a clear stamp on the music he created. But I would challenge you to think again. Instead, think about this great artist through the lens of his strength, resilience and commitment to the creative act.

    The full performance of SMiLE! at The Royal Festival Hall in February 2004.

    In later years he joked about his name and the connection between “Wilson” and “willpower”, but it’s a joke that reveals something deeper. At the opening of SMiLE! at the Royal Festival Hall February 20 2004, Wilson walked onto the stage to present a work he had abandoned 37 years previously – a work that by some accounts had nearly killed him.

    At the end of the performance of this beautiful and unique album Wilson repeatedly attempted to silence the rapt applause before sighing wearyingly and accepting it. It was not just recognition for the achievement of the music, but the defiance of the artist himself.

    In later touring years, Wilson’s physical fragility was sometimes in evidence, but there were always moments – often in songs like Surfer Girl (1963) or the hymnal Love & Mercy (1988) – where his intent, to make himself and others feel better through the art of songmaking, retained an unmatched emotional power. It was a reminder that the love and mercy you need tonight would always exist in the music of Brian Douglas Wilson.

    David Scott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Brian Wilson’s visionary songwriting held unmatched emotional power. And in person he never disappointed – https://theconversation.com/brian-wilsons-visionary-songwriting-held-unmatched-emotional-power-and-in-person-he-never-disappointed-258864

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The transatlantic race to create the television

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Donald McLean, Honorary Lecturer in Early Television, University of Glasgow

    Number 1519 Connecticut Avenue lies just north of Dupont Circle, just over a 20-minute walk from the White House in Washington DC. In 1921, the inventor Charles Francis Jenkins set up his laboratory and offices there, upstairs from a car dealership.

    Today there are no obvious external indications of this famous resident, nor of his exceptional achievements, awards and numerous patents. A hundred years ago at his laboratory, on June 13 1925, Jenkins gave a demonstration of a televised film sent by radio waves from a building 10km away at what is now the US Naval Research Laboratory in Bellevue, DC.

    The invited group of mostly government officials included the secretary of the navy, Curtis D. Wilbur. They watched with fascination a film that showed a silhouette of a toy windmill with its blades in motion. The television picture comprised 48 lines, refreshed at the silent-movie rate of 16 per second.

    The Washington newspaper headlines the following day hailed the demonstration as the “first motion pictures transmitted by radio”. Hobbyist magazines reported fervently that “television is here!”, calling Jenkins the “father of television”.

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    Today those announcements seem over-enthusiastic. Television as an operational service still had a long way to go to have the quality and range to make consumer devices feasible. All the same, they were right in anticipating where Jenkins’ demonstration might lead.

    By that July, Jenkins had demonstrated vision and sound transmitted together on a single short-wave radio frequency. The published technical details indicate a high degree of sophistication in his designs, as might be expected from someone with a background in precision phototelegraphy (transmitting images over wires).

    Parallel development

    Jenkins had an impressive track record as an inventor. He and his business partner, Thomas Armat, are generally accepted as the originators of the intermittent drive system for motion picture film projectors in the early 1910s. This made it possible to move films one frame at a time through a projector, enabling smooth playback without any flickering.

    For this landmark work, Jenkins won the prestigious Elliott Cresson Medal from the Franklin Institute and became the founder and first president of the Society of Motion Picture Engineers in 1916.

    In the early 1920s he then developed a practical means of sending images of weather charts by radio to ships at sea. It was this phototelegraphy work that led him into experiments in televising silhouettes of live and filmed scenes. He claimed that he first demonstrated the technology to witnesses in June 1923.

    Nevertheless, the Scottish inventor John Logie Baird beat him to become the first to do a public demonstration, in London over three weeks in March and April 1925. Baird, who had been working on the technology since early 1923, showed live moving images in reflected light transmitted by radio to enthusiastic crowds in Selfridges department store. With only eight lines per picture, he carefully chose simple objects that would be easily identifiable.

    In the US, Jenkins had doubled down on improving the image quality for his demonstration. His persistence with back-lit silhouettes today seems odd considering most TV programmes would come to be televised in reflected light. Baird’s preference for showing recognisable facial features in reflected light gained him widespread recognition for his demonstration of 30-line television in January 1926.

    Jenkins nevertheless launched his silent silhouette video service for hobbyists on the radio station W3XK in July 1928, around the same time as similar offerings from companies that included General Electric (GE) and the Radio Corporation of America (RCA). By the end of that year, there were thought to have been as many as 15 television stations operating in the US.

    Like Baird and Jenkins’ methods, many of these early stations relied on mechanically rotating disks with patterns of holes to scan images line by line. They were all very low on detail, but were still heralded as proof of concept for television. A key factor in their acceptance was the uncanny ability of human vision to recognise facial expressions along with natural body motion in poor quality images.

    Later in 1928, Baird went on to demonstrate colour, early 3D (stereoscopic), and transatlantic television all for the first time, though more as a way of attracting financial backing than presenting prototypes of future offerings. Unlike Jenkins, who earned money from his earlier inventions and patents, Baird relied largely on funding from investors to grow his business, which aimed to develop and commercialise his mechanical television technology.

    What came next

    Mechanical television was short-lived. Around 1931 RCA and EMI (Electric and Musical Industries), soon to become the key players in broadcasting infrastructure in the US and UK, had independently predicted insufficient public interest in this technology. With its inherently limited image quality, they thought it couldn’t support a viable business.

    Swift advances in electronics continued unabated throughout the interwar years. This allowed successful development of alternative, superior television systems using ideas from scientists such as Boris Rosing in Russia and Alan Archibald Campbell-Swinton in the UK.

    RCA and EMI focused their respective resources on developing vastly superior electronic television systems. These scanned and reproduced images using electron beams that are fired inside a glass unit known as a cathode ray tube to capture and show the transmitted moving picture on the screens of people’s TV sets. Those pictures had around 100 times the information content of the earlier mechanical equivalents.

    This made the many early mechanical television services attain one more “first”: becoming obsolete. In just over 15 years from Jenkins’ 1925 demonstration, first the UK and then the US would launch new operational broadcast television services for the public that completely overshadowed the earlier pioneering work.

    Jenkins did not live to see those new systems. His health deteriorated from late 1930 and he died in 1934 aged 66, leaving behind a superb legacy of a full career in inventions.

    John Logie Baird operating his mechanical television system in 1931.
    Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    Baird continued to work as a TV pioneer in the 1930s and 1940s, dedicated to exploring colour television and cinema projection. He died in 1946 at the age of just 57.

    Jenkins’ and Baird’s original pioneering efforts, and the excitement they generated, are still rightly heralded by many people today. We can now only imagine how it must have felt to see moving images transmitted from miles away for the first time. It’s incredible to reflect that what was once considered magic so quickly became mundane.

    Donald McLean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The transatlantic race to create the television – https://theconversation.com/the-transatlantic-race-to-create-the-television-258726

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: France’s final nuclear tests in the South Pacific, 30 years on

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Roxanne Panchasi, Associate Professor, Department of History, Simon Fraser University

    Former French President Jacques Chirac encounters a protest from members during an official visit to the European Parliament in Strasbourg in July 1995.
     (European Parliament)

    In recent months, the viability of France’s nuclear arsenal has been making headlines with talk of a French “nuclear umbrella” that might shield its allies on the European continent. In the face of the Russia-Ukraine war, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements regarding the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in that conflict, the question of how to best defend Europe has taken on an urgency not seen since the height of the Cold War.

    Despite its more robust nuclear weapons capabilities, the United States in the Donald Trump era appears less committed to the defence of its NATO allies. Debates about a French nuclear umbrella aside, these discussions — combined with increased military spending worldwide and resurgent fears of nuclear war — make the history of France’s nuclear readiness and weapons testing feel uneasily current.

    In June 1995, French President Jacques Chirac announced that France would resume testing nuclear weapons in the South Pacific. Just weeks after being elected to office, Chirac ended a three-year moratorium on testing that his predecessor, François Mitterrand, had put into effect in April 1992.

    Chirac insisted this additional series of weapons tests was essential to France’s national security and the continued independence of its nuclear deterrent. The eight planned detonations scheduled to take place over the next several months would, he claimed, provide the data needed to move from real-world detonations to computer simulations in the future. He also said it would enable France to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT) banning all nuclear explosions, for military or other purposes, by the fall of 1996.

    France’s history of nuclear tests

    A report on France’s nuclear tests in the South Pacific. (Disclose)

    Chirac’s June 1995 announcement, followed by the first new detonation in September that year, provoked intense opposition from environmental and peace groups, and protests from Paris to Papeete, throughout the Pacific region and across the globe.

    Representatives from the world’s other nuclear-armed states expressed concern that France was choosing to conduct further tests so close to a comprehensive ban. The governments of Australia, New Zealand and Japan also registered their staunch opposition, issuing diplomatic statements, calling for the boycott of French goods and pursuing other measures of rebuke.

    A defensive posture had been a pillar of France’s nuclear weapons policy since the nation first entered the atomic club in 1960 with the detonation of Gerboise Bleue, a 70-kiloton bomb, at Reggane in Algeria. The following three atmospheric and 13 underground Saharan tests resulted in serious long-term health and environmental consequences for the region’s inhabitants.

    In 1966, France’s nuclear testing program relocated to Maō’hui Nui, colonially known as “French Polynesia.”

    The next 26 years saw a further 187 French nuclear and thermonuclear detonations above and beneath the Pacific atolls of Moruroa and Fangataufa. They exposed the local population to dangerous levels of radiation, contaminating food and water supplies, and harming corals and other forms of ocean life.

    These experiments — along with the final six underground detonations the French carried out in 1995 and 1996 — left a toxic legacy for generations to come.

    Inadequate compensation for lingering harm

    When Chirac shared his rationale for France’s latest nuclear test series with a room full of journalists gathered at the Elysée Palace in June 1995, he was adamant that these planned tests, and all of France’s nuclear detonations, had absolutely no ecological consequences.

    Today, we know this claim was more than incorrect. It was a falsehood reliant on data and conclusions that grossly underestimated the harmful impact that France’s nuclear testing program had on the health of French soldiers and non-military personnel onsite, inhabitants in the surrounding areas and the environments where these explosions took place.

    Most recently, during the 2024 Paris Olympics, there was an evident deep contradiction between “French Polynesia” as a tourist paradise and idyllic location for the Games’ surf competitions and a space of continuing injustice for test victims that highlights the history of France’s nuclear imperialism in the region.

    In 2010, the French government passed the Morin law ostensibly aimed at addressing the suffering of those significantly harmed by radiation during France’s nuclear weapons detonations from 1960 through 1996.

    The number of people who have been successful in their applications for recognition and compensation remains inadequate, particularly in Algeria. Out of the 2,846 applications submitted by only a fraction of the thousands of estimated victims, just over 400 people in Maō’hui Nui and only one Algerian have received compensation since 2010.

    In 2021, French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged that France “owes a debt” to the people of Maō’hui Nui. He has since called for the opening up of key archives pertaining to this history, but there is much more work to be done on all fronts.

    The findings of a recent French parliamentary commission on the effects of testing in the Pacific, scheduled to be released soon, may contribute to greater transparency and justice for victims in the future.

    In Maō’hui Nui, demands for acknowledgement and restitution have been intertwined with the independence movement, while confronting the impact and legacies of the nuclear detonations in Algeria has been fraught with tensions between Algeria and France over the colonial past.

    Future of the test ban treaty

    In January 1996, France conducted its last nuclear test by detonating a 120-kiloton bomb underground in the South Pacific. In September, France added its signature to the CTBT, joining the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, China and 66 other states without nuclear weapons in their commitment not to engage in further nuclear explosions in any context.

    Almost 30 years later, the CTBT has still not come into force. While most signatories have ratified the treaty, China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the U.S. are among the nine that have not. Meanwhile, Russia withdrew its own ratification in 2023. Key non-signatories include India, North Korea and Pakistan — all nuclear-armed states that have conducted their own tests since 1996.

    Given these crucial exceptions to a test ban, the prospects for something as ambitious as the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which not a single nuclear weapons state has signed to date, remain uncertain, to say the least.

    Roxanne Panchasi has previously received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. France’s final nuclear tests in the South Pacific, 30 years on – https://theconversation.com/frances-final-nuclear-tests-in-the-south-pacific-30-years-on-256439

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –