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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Vietnam is poised to become a top 20 economy, so why is Australia taking so long to make trade and investment links?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anne Vo, Senior lecturer in Vietnamese culture and politics, University of Wollongong

    Aritra Deb/Shutterstock

    At a time of widespread global trade instability, Australia should be expanding and diversifying its economic partnerships. Supply chains remain fragile, and protectionist rhetoric is once again gaining traction in major Western economies.

    US President Donald Trump’s America First agenda includes sweeping tariffs on imports, withdrawal from multilateral agreements and pressure to take production in-house.

    At the same time, China, Australia’s largest trading partner, has often used trade for geopolitical leverage. In 2020, Beijing imposed tariffs of more than 200% on Australian wine. This wiped 30% off the sector’s export value.

    So economic diversification is not only desirable but strategically imperative.

    An opportunity

    Fifty years on from the fall of Saigon, Vietnam presents a compelling opportunity for economic and strategic diversification. The reunited country is eager to move beyond its wartime image and assert itself as an emerging economic powerhouse.

    Vietnam’s capital, Ho Chi Min City. The country has shifted from being a place synonymous with war to becoming one of the world’s top economies.
    Nguyen Quang Ngoc Tonkin/Shutterstock

    Since the launch of the Doi Moi reforms in 1986, Vietnam has embraced economic liberalisation and market-oriented policies. The Doi Moi reforms opened the economy to foreign trade, allowed private ownership and restructured state-owned enterprises.

    From a growth rate of just 1.6% in 1980, Vietnam is now set to become one of the world’s top 20 economies by 2050. In 2023 alone, it attracted A$8.5 billion in foreign direct investment, underscoring strong investor confidence.

    The 50th anniversary of reunification on April 30 provided insights into the country’s growth. Celebrations included military parades, 3D virtual reality displays and exhibitions promoting advances in technology.

    Slow to act

    Yet Australia has been slow to act. Despite geographic proximity and shared interests, Australia’s economic footprint in Vietnam remains surprisingly small. In 2023, Australian foreign direct investment totalled just A$3 million. It ranked 22nd, behind countries including Switzerland and Seychelles.

    In trade, the disparity is similarly stark. Vietnam accounts for only 2.33% of Australia’s exports and 1.4% of imports. Two-way trade between the two countries reached $26.3 billion in 2022. At the same time, Vietnam’s trade with the United States, topped A$191.9 billion.

    Some Australian firms are already making inroads. BlueScope Steel, Linfox, and SunRice have invested significantly in manufacturing, logistics and agriculture. And RMIT University has been a key player in transnational education since it opened the first of three campuses in Vietnam in 2000.

    ANZ and Qantas also have a visible presence. However, small and medium-sized enterprises – which comprise more than 98% of Australian businesses – remain largely absent. Many prefer export partnerships or distributor agreements over direct investment.

    Potential obstacles

    Australian companies have long favoured English-speaking or high-income markets. These offer greater institutional and cultural familiarity and regulatory certainty.

    Vietnam’s relationship-based commercial environment poses challenges, especially for firms lacking embedded networks and local knowledge. Concerns around regulatory transparency, intellectual property protection, contract enforcement and corruption – though improving – continue to weigh on corporate decisions.

    Small to medium enterprises, in particular, face extra barriers due to limited institutional support, regulatory understanding, market intelligence and in-country networks.

    Help from government

    The Australian government has taken some steps to catch up. The Enhanced Economic Engagement Strategy, launched in 2021, aims to double two-way investment and elevate both nations to top ten trading partner status.

    It identifies priority sectors such as agriculture, education, clean energy, digital technology and manufacturing. However, the strategy contains no enforceable legal protections, tariff concessions or means of dispute resolution.

    Manufacturing is one of the priority areas recognised in Australia’s Enhanced Economic Engagement Strategy for Vietnam.
    Hien Phung Tu/Shutterstock

    The lack of these matters. Japan, South Korea and the European Union have pursued coordinated economic strategies that include concessional loans, robust legal frameworks and in-market support services. These help their businesses thrive in Vietnam’s complex regulatory environment.

    Similarly, the EU has integrated trade promotion with legal certainty under agreements like the EU Vietnam Free Trade Agreement.

    More needs to be done

    Without comparable tools, Australia’s initiatives risk being more aspirational than actionable.

    Last year’s upgrade in bilateral ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signals growing political will.

    For Australia to realise the potential of its relationship with Vietnam it should back long-term policies. These policies should reduce market entry barriers, incentivise small to medium enterprises and increase joint skills development.

    Investors also need legal and institutional support.

    Australia has strong potential to expand into emerging sectors. These include renewable energy, digital technology, healthcare, vocational education and training, green and smart infrastructure and agritech.

    Vietnam’s push for environmentally sustainable economic growth, digital transformation and workforce training aligns closely with Australian strengths. This creates opportunities for strategic investment and cooperation.

    There is the potential for Australia to build a dynamic partnership with Vietnam central to its long-term economic position in the Indo-Pacific.

    Anne Vo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vietnam is poised to become a top 20 economy, so why is Australia taking so long to make trade and investment links? – https://theconversation.com/vietnam-is-poised-to-become-a-top-20-economy-so-why-is-australia-taking-so-long-to-make-trade-and-investment-links-255722

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why is hospital parking so expensive? Two economics researchers explain

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Farrell, Professor of Economics (Health Economist), RMIT University

    ThirtyPlus/Shutterstock

    Imagine having to pay A$39 dollars a day to park your car while visiting your sick child in hospital.

    For families already struggling in a cost-of-living crisis, hospital parking fees are not just another expense. They can be a financial barrier to supporting loved ones in their most vulnerable moments.

    Hospital parking is a big revenue earner. In New South Wales, public hospitals collected almost $51.7 million in parking fees in 2024. That was up from $30.2 million in 2023.

    It may be tempting to view hospital parking fees as exploiting a captive market. But the reality is much more complex.

    It involves urban economics, pressures on health-care funding and competing demands for limited space, often in busy city centres.

    Let’s start with supply and demand

    Basic economics tells us that price is the mechanism for balancing supply and demand. This is known as the equilibrium price. If demand is greater than supply, the price rises. So for urban hospitals, where parking spaces are limited, this scarcity creates market conditions that, not surprisingly, drive up prices.

    But economics also tells us that if there’s still demand for parking despite the price, then under some circumstances suppliers can charge more than the equilibrium price. Put simply, this “inelastic demand” means it is possible to charge more to a captive audience.

    You could certainly argue hospital patients and visitors are a captive audience. While many hospitals are well serviced by public transport, hospital patients and visitors are often too sick or time-poor to use it. So they have little choice than to pay for parking. For rural hospitals, there is limited or no public transport, so visitors have to drive.

    So are hospitals taking advantage of the inelastic demand for parking? Are they price gouging – setting prices above what is considered reasonable or fair? Or are there reasons for setting such high prices?

    Location, location, location

    Car parks of hospitals in prime locations are not just attractive to hospital patients and visitors. They’re also attractive to other users, such as those working in the city or sightseeing. High parking fees deter these users, ensuring spaces are available for hospital users.

    High prices prevent hospital users from overstaying. This prevents them doing non-hospital activities (such as shopping) after their hospital appointment or visits and before returning to their cars.

    Hospitals also charge high prices to raise revenue for health care. In a statement to the ABC earlier this year, NSW Health said extra money raised from parking is reinvested into health services and facilities.

    Hospitals are often in prime locations, such as Royal Prince Alfred Hospital in Sydney’s inner west.
    Rose Marinelli/Shutterstock

    But it makes sense to encourage visitors

    However, raising parking fees to support hospital budgets could be a false economy. We know hospital visitors have an important role in patients’ recovery times. So if high parking costs deter visitors or carers, this could lead to longer hospital stays for their loved ones.

    Cheaper parking might allow for more visiting, leading to shorter hospital stays and significant cost savings per patient.

    I (Lisa) had firsthand experience of this when my elderly father with dementia was admitted to hospital recently. The hospital allowed 24/7 visitor access for carers (in this case, my mother) and free hospital parking. Access 24/7 is important for patients with dementia who are often disorientated in hospital. This disorientation is typically worse in the evening (known as sundowning).

    Having carers present meant staff could focus on medical issues. It facilitated visits outside normal visiting hours (when dementia patients typically need the extra support) and when the demand for parking spaces is lower.

    Visitors are great for patients’ wellbeing and help their recovery. So we want to encourage them.
    DC Studio/Shutterstock

    Who needs cheap parking?

    High parking prices reflect the high demand for a fixed supply of parking spaces that are rationed to those most willing to pay (those with the income). But a better solution is to ration according to need (that is, to boost patient wellbeing).

    The economics solution is to charge different users different prices. Most hospitals do this already by offering concessions. But concessions can differ by hospital or state. Not everyone knows concession-rate parking is available, and it can be hard for some people to find out if they qualify.

    So if you are concerned about the cost of hospital parking, know the fees and available concessions before you park. You can find this on most hospitals’ websites.

    Currently, concessions are generally based on income (including the possession of a concession card). But we need a greater shift towards providing concession rates based on need. For example those visiting long-stay patients clearly need concessions to support patient wellbeing.

    A media campaign has called for a national cap on hospital parking costs for frequent users.

    Most car parks have a daily limit but frequent users can soon accumulate large bills over weeks or months of hospital visits. For many patients, particularly those requiring frequent treatments such as dialysis, parking costs accumulate annually.

    For people having frequent treatments, such as dialysis, parking costs can add up over the years.
    ainata/Shutterstock

    How could we make things cheaper and fairer?

    We need to apply concession rates to hospital visitors on the basis of need, not just income. Need should be informed by patient wellbeing and the importance of visitors to the healing process.

    We need a consistent set of rules across hospitals about concession-rate parking. This would simplify the process for hospital car park users.

    We also need to look at longer-term solutions. When expanding hospitals or planning new ones, we can consider transitioning away from prime locations. This would help make parking less attractive to non-hospital users.

    The challenge for health-care systems is balancing operational necessity of recovering costs with the ethics of equity and access that prevent necessary care.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why is hospital parking so expensive? Two economics researchers explain – https://theconversation.com/why-is-hospital-parking-so-expensive-two-economics-researchers-explain-255716

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: While the Liberals haemorrhaged, the Nationals held their own. Is it time to break up the Coalition?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda Botterill, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Among the notable features of this year’s election campaign was that Australia’s second-oldest political party was apparently missing in action. At the same time, it managed to avoid the rout inflicted on its coalition partner.

    The Nationals, who have represented rural and regional Australia in the federal parliament for more than a century, were nowhere to be seen as an identifiable, separate political party.

    This isn’t unusual. The parties that make up the Coalition do highly targeted messaging in their electorates, but then fall neatly into policy lockstep when an election is called. This time, however, the Nationals seemed particularly shy.

    Leader David Littleproud stopped issuing media releases on April 24, a full nine days before the election was held, and his speech to the National Press Club given that day was not available on the party website. It is hard to imagine former party leaders Tim Fischer, John Anderson or Ian Sinclair being quite so reticent.

    The focus of the commentary since election night has been on the Liberals’ failings, particularly in the major cities. You could be forgiven for thinking “Coalition” was a synonym for “Liberals”.

    But as the Liberal Party tries to reckon with these failings, the Nats are in a position of increasing power. The great survivors of Australian politics now appear to be better at surviving than their coalition counterparts. It’s just a question of how they want to use that power and longevity.

    Growing party power

    The Nationals are a uniquely Australian phenomenon. First, they are an avowedly agrarian party in a highly urbanised country.

    Second and more distinctly, they are part of what the rest of the world would see as a decidedly odd coalition arrangement. Elsewhere, coalition governments are negotiated after the election result is known and involve public bargaining and horse trading.

    In the Australian coalition arrangement, these negotiations occur behind closed doors and can hold even in opposition. The Nats benefit because they have access to ministerial and shadow ministerial positions with the power, salary and other advantages that these confer.

    The National Party largely held its own in the face of the Labor landslide. At most, it lost one of its 10 House of Representatives seats: Calare in northern New South Wales, which has been held by a former Nat, now independent.

    Its primary vote actually increased marginally from 3.6% in 2022 to 4.0%. This is less than One Nation (6.3%) but because of its dispersed vote, One Nation didn’t win a lower house seat.

    The Nats appear likely to lose a NSW senator as part of the joint party ticket. Nonetheless, the Nats are now a proportionally larger force in the Coalition, with Nats and Nationals-aligned LNP members accounting for just over 40% of Coalition MPs.

    On that basis they could become more influential over policies and shadow portfolios. Including senators, they now account for 30% of the Coalition party room.

    At a crossroads

    The demise of the Nationals has been predicted for decades, but still they persist.

    The peculiar Australian coalition arrangement works for them. They will benefit both from holding shadow ministerial positions if the Coalition is retained and likely having a greater role in determining policy direction.

    Whether the Liberals benefit from a continuing coalition is an open question. They need to rebuild in the cities and focus on regaining the support of voters who are socially liberal but economically conservative, younger, and female. There’ll inevitably be a review of what went wrong for the Liberals, and this might best be done free of ties to the Nats.

    The choice seems to be between shifting policy closer to the ten community independents or remaining hitched to the conservative Nationals. The ill-fated nuclear power policy has, after all, been attributed to David Littleproud.

    Deciding which way to fall won’t be easy. Apparently aware of his party’s increased leverage, Nationals Senator Matt Canavan has said they were led too much by the Liberals during the last parliament. He said:

    I worry that we have been gun shy in this last term of parliament in a futile attempt to give the Liberals space or some sort of opportunity to win seats in the city.

    So is now the time for the Coalition partners to go it alone? Probably not.

    On present numbers, the Liberals could struggle to form the opposition in their own right. The combined LNP in Queensland makes the situation even more complicated.

    The Nats have no incentive to leave. Open competition could see them lose seats to the Liberals in the future.

    And besides, two Liberal leadership contenders, Angus Taylor and Sussan Ley, hold seats with significant rural histories, both of which have been held by the Country/National Party.

    Linda Botterill has in the past received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Grains Research and Development Corporation, and Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (now Agrifutures).

    – ref. While the Liberals haemorrhaged, the Nationals held their own. Is it time to break up the Coalition? – https://theconversation.com/while-the-liberals-haemorrhaged-the-nationals-held-their-own-is-it-time-to-break-up-the-coalition-255626

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Utu’ as foreign policy: how a Māori worldview can make sense of a shifting world order

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Ross Smith, Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Research on Europe, University of Canterbury

    Getty Images

    There is a growing feeling in New Zealand that the regional geopolitical situation is becoming less stable and more conflicted. China has ramped up its Pacific engagement, most recently with the Cook Islands, and the United States under Donald Trump is abandoning the old multilateral world order.

    As a result, we’re beginning to see New Zealand shift away from a two-decades-long preference for engaging with multiple partners towards a more conventional balancing strategy.

    Essentially, this attempts to counter the perceived threat from a strong country – namely China – with a combination of external alliances and internal policies.

    Externally, New Zealand has sought re-align itself within the US-led security sphere. Participation in pillar two of the AUKUS security pact has been seriously discussed, and New Zealand has actively engaged with NATO as a member of the “Indo-Pacific Four” (along with Australia, Japan and the Republic of Korea).

    Internally, a NZ$12 billion “defence plan” was announced in early April. This will see New Zealand increase defence spending from just over 1% of GDP to more than 2% over the next eight years.

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made no secret of these changing priorities. He has said he is simply taking “the world as it is”, adding:

    this realism is a shift from our predecessors’ vaguer notions of an indigenous foreign policy that no-one else understood, let alone shared.

    This was a direct repudiation of the previous Labour government’s foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta. Her tenure had offered a glimpse of what a foreign policy guided by te ao Māori – the Māori worldview – might look like.

    Four tikanga Māori principles underpinned the policy: manaakitanga (hospitality), whanaungatanga (connectedness), mahi tahi and kotahitanga (unity through collaboration), and kaitiakitanga (intergenerational guardianship).

    ‘The world as it is’: Foreign Minister Winston Peters speaks at Rātana celebrations in Whanganui, January 24 2025.
    Getty Images

    Beyond Western-centric thinking

    Clearly, te ao Māori offers a very different way of looking at international relations. At its core it adopts a “relational” understanding of the world that views reality as a series of entanglements: “human with human, human with nonhuman, nonhuman with human, human and nonhuman with transcendent”.

    It is also a non-anthropocentric view: humans are not the masters of the world but rather stewards or custodians of a complex web of relations.

    But as we argue in a recent Global Policy article, despite good intentions, Mahuta’s four tikanga Māori were mostly used rhetorically. They did not fundamentally alter New Zealand’s foreign policy, which remained firmly Western-centric.

    We suggest those four tikanga principles would be enhanced by adding the concept of “utu” as a kind of overarching framework.

    Largely thanks to the famous 1983 film of the same name, utu is often thought to simply mean violent revenge. In fact, it is a much deeper concept that refers to the “process of restoring physical and spiritual relationships to an equal or harmonious state”.

    Utu as a foreign policy framework

    A foreign policy underpinned by utu, therefore, would seek to build relationships that are harmonious and reciprocal.

    Harmony, in this sense, goes beyond notions of an international order characterised by global peace, greater connectedness, increased cooperation and interdependence.

    While these are important, an utu-informed view of harmony would also take into account the relationship between humans and the natural world, and between present, past and future generations.

    Similarly, in the Western-centric view, reciprocity is typically “invoked as an appropriate standard of behaviour which can produce cooperation among sovereign states”.

    But utu involves a reciprocity built through hospitality (manaakitanga), something which has to be given even if serious discord exists in a relationship. Reciprocity is also important in interactions between humans and the natural world.

    Consequently, an utu foreign policy doctrine would offer a radically different lens than New Zealand is currently using.

    A genuinely independent foreign policy

    Firstly, it would require New Zealand to reject the Western geopolitical construct
    of the “Indo-Pacific”, which vastly oversimplifies the complex realities of the region.

    And it would mean viewing China not as an existential threat, but rather as a crucial relationship that is subject to the principles of manaakitanga, despite growing discord and diplomatic challenges.

    Secondly, it would see New Zealand recognise climate change as the primary existential threat to the status quo. This would align closely with the country’s Pacific neighbours whose Blue Pacific initiative offers an alternative to the Indo-Pacific focus.

    Lastly, it would help New Zealand more consistently and coherently pursue a genuinely independent foreign policy. This should have bipartisan appeal, as it would give New Zealand a unique perspective on the world.

    Ultimately, as New Zealand faces a more complex regional environment and a range of national security challenges, utu in its true sense offers a more constructive framework.

    Perhaps adopting a more complex – and more humble – understanding of the world, as provided by te ao Māori, would give policymakers an alternative pathway to simply taking “the world as it is”.

    The author acknowledges the contribution of independent researcher Bonnie Holster, co-author of the Global Policy paper on which this article is based.

    Nicholas Ross Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Utu’ as foreign policy: how a Māori worldview can make sense of a shifting world order – https://theconversation.com/utu-as-foreign-policy-how-a-maori-worldview-can-make-sense-of-a-shifting-world-order-255602

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia is set to be a renewables nation. After Labor’s win, there’s no turning back

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wesley Morgan, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

    bmphotographer/Shutterstock

    An emphatic election victory for the incumbent Labor government means Australia’s rapid shift to renewable energy will continue. As Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said on Saturday:

    In 2022, the Australian people voted to finally act on climate change. After three years of progress […] in 2025 they said keep going.

    The election result also means the debate about energy policy is now, in broad terms, over. Australia’s energy future is wind and solar, backed by storage.

    Coal and gas will have a fast-declining role to play and nuclear energy will have none at all. Australia is set to be a renewables nation. There is no turning back now.

    Cementing renewables investment

    By continuing to build renewables capacity, the returned Labor government can position Australia on the world stage as a genuine leader on clean energy.

    The Albanese government has set a national target of more than 80% of the main national electricity grid running on renewables by 2030. With such a large majority in parliament, Labor may well be in government at that time.

    Australia already has the world’s highest per-capita solar uptake, with about 300,000 solar systems installed each year. One in three Australian homes now has rooftop solar.

    Labor is complementing this boom with a new home battery discount scheme, which aims to have more than one million batteries installed by 2030. This will help stabilise the grid by reducing demand at peak times.

    But more investment in renewables is needed. The policy certainty of a returned Labor government should help to attract international capital. This is important, because more than 70% of investment in renewables in Australia comes from offshore.

    Securing climate consensus

    Labor’s win also means it can finally bed down a national consensus on climate policy.

    A recent survey on Australian attitudes to climate action suggested community views can shift if people see action is taken by governments and big business.

    This does not mean community opposition to renewable energy will evaporate – especially in regional Australia. The federal government must work with industry players and other levels of government to ensure proper public consultation. The new Net Zero Economy Authority will play an important role in ensuring the regions and their workers benefit from the energy transition.

    For its part, the Coalition needs to do some soul-searching. Australian voters returned a number of climate-friendly independents in key seats. The Coalition also failed to win support from younger Australians, who typically view renewables favourably.

    All this suggests continued opposition to renewables is unlikely to help the Coalition form government anytime soon. What’s more, continuing to promote nuclear power – which some in the Coalition are pushing for – makes little sense in an increasingly renewables-dominated grid.

    Doubling down on international climate cooperation

    Labor’s plans to rapidly expand renewable energy strengthen Australia’s credentials to host the COP31 UN climate talks with Pacific island countries next year.

    Australia’s bid has strong support from other nations. Turkey – the only other nation with its hand up to host – has so far resisted pressure from Australia to withdraw its bid. In support of their own bid, Turkish representatives pointed to uncertainty in Australia ahead of the May election – however that uncertainty has now passed.

    Adelaide will host the talks if Australia’s bid succeeds. This will be a chance to share our world-beating renewables story – including in South Australia, which is set to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2027.

    Australia could also use the talks in South Australia to promote new export industries that use renewable energy, especially plans to produce green iron and green steel at Whyalla.

    Hosting rights could attract investment in Australia’s renewables rollout and help promote exports of critical minerals and green metals. And it would enable Australia to cement its place in the Pacific during a time of increased geo-strategic competition, by promoting a renewables partnership for the whole region.

    Australia must move fast and secure the COP31 bid at climate talks in Germany next month. Any delay risks a less ambitious summit next year, because building consensus for new initiatives takes time.

    South Australia has made a bold bid to host COP31 (SA Government)

    Seizing our economic opportunities

    As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said during his victory speech on Saturday, renewable energy is “an opportunity we must work together to seize for the future of our economy”.

    Australia is the world’s largest exporter of raw iron ore and metallurgical coal, both used extensively in offshore steelmaking.

    But Australia can create jobs and reduce emissions by refining iron ore in Australia using renewables and green hydrogen.

    The potential export value of green iron is estimated at A$295 billion a year, or three times the current value of iron ore exports. More broadly, our clean energy exports – including green metals, fertilisers and fuels – could be worth six to eight times more than our fossil fuel exports, analysis suggests.

    A key challenge for the returned government is assuring markets such as Japan that Australia is a long-term strategic partner, even while redirecting trade and investment away from coal and gas exports and toward long-term clean energy industries.

    Embracing Australia’s future

    Australians have delivered a strong mandate for climate action. The returned Labor government must ensure this support is not squandered, and voter trust is not lost.

    This means seizing the opportunity, once and for all, to shift Australia from our past as a fossil fuel heavyweight to our future as a renewables superpower.

    Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia

    Ben Newell receives funding from the Australian Research Council

    – ref. Australia is set to be a renewables nation. After Labor’s win, there’s no turning back – https://theconversation.com/australia-is-set-to-be-a-renewables-nation-after-labors-win-theres-no-turning-back-256081

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: No matter who the next pope is, US Catholics stand ‘at a crossroads’ − a sociologist explains

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Maureen K. Day, Research Fellow, Center for Religion and Civic Culture, University of Southern California

    Parishioners attend a memorial Mass in honor of Pope Francis at the Cathedral of Our Lady of the Angels in Los Angeles on April 21, 2025. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

    More than 130 cardinals entered the Sistine Chapel on May 7, 2025. With the announcement “Extra omnes” – “all out” – the doors have been closed and the cardinals sequestered to elect the next leader of the Catholic Church. They will vote, confer, pray and vote again until a candidate acquires the two-thirds majority needed to become pope.

    Ten of the men voting this week are from the United States. The Conversation U.S. asked Maureen Day, a researcher at the University of Southern California who has written several books about the contemporary church, to explain what Catholicism looks like in the U.S. at this high-stakes moment.

    How is Catholic identity and practice in the U.S. changing, compared with a generation ago?

    In 1987, the year of the first American Catholic Laity survey, nearly half of American Catholics said that faith was “the most” or “among the most” important parts of their life. Now, only 37% say the same.

    Others are leaving the Catholic Church completely. The General Social Survey, a national survey conducted every year or two since the 1970s, asks people about the faith they grew up with, as well as their present religious identity. According to our analysis of its data, in 1973 only 10% of Americans who grew up Catholic had changed religions, and another 7% had left religion altogether. By 2018, each of those percentages had increased to 18%.

    A Pew Research Center study conducted in 2024 found that for every American who converts to Catholicism, another 8.4 leave. The only reason that Catholicism is able to maintain a relatively steady share of the U.S. population – about 20% – is due to the high percentage of immigrants and migrants who are Catholic.

    So my co-authors and I chose the title of our 2025 book, “Catholicism at a Crossroads,” quite intentionally. The church has been facing a variety of challenges for decades, both nationally and across the globe. It’s not just about disaffiliation, but also issues such as the sexual abuse crises and bishops’ decreasing influence on lay Catholics’ personal decisions.

    The Rev. Athanasius Abanulo celebrates Mass in Lanett, Ala., in 2021. Many international clergy, like Abanulo, are helping to ease a shortage of priests in the U.S.
    AP Photo/Jessie Wardarski

    In response, church leaders have mostly offered minor adjustments, such as encouraging parishes to become more family- or young adult-friendly. They have not yet made larger shifts that could substantially alter some of those trend lines.

    Some of your work focuses on what you call ‘cultural Catholics’ − defined as Catholics who attend Mass less than once per month. How would you describe cultural Catholicism in the U.S. today?

    A big concern of Catholic leaders right now is decreasing Mass attendance, as weekly Mass is an important precept of the Catholic Church. Sunday Mass is a place for Catholics to participate in the sacraments, strengthen their faith and build relationships with other Catholics.

    One of the things Catholic leaders tend to attribute this drop in attendance to is a broader trend of secularism. There might be some merit to this, but it can’t be the whole story. In our analysis of General Social Survey data, for example, the percentage of Protestant Christians who say they attend worship services weekly was 35% in 1950 and 40% in 2023. Among Catholics, however, weekly Mass attendance has declined from 63% to 30% in these same years.

    “Cultural Catholics” who say they attend Mass “a few times a year” or “seldom or never” account for 53% of U.S. Catholics. Many of them demonstrate strong ties to Catholic teachings in other ways. For example, around 70% to 80% of cultural Catholics say that it is “essential” or “somewhat essential” to Catholicism to help the poor, have a devotion to Mary and practice daily prayer.

    There are findings that can lend themselves to either a “glass half empty” or “glass half full” interpretation. For instance, it might be heartening to Catholic leaders to know that 62% of cultural Catholics say it is important that future generations of their family are Catholic – although this is much lower than the 89% among those who attend Mass frequently.

    Sister Maris Stella Vaughan teaches a religion class at St. John Paul II Catholic School in Phoenix, Ariz., in 2020.
    AP Photo/Dario Lopez-Mills

    And when these cultural Catholics imagine future generations of their family being Catholic, what does that mean? Perhaps it entails simply a few milestones, like receiving baptism, First Communion and possibly Confirmation – the three sacraments that initiate a person into the Catholic faith. The way many cultural Catholics are loosely tethered to the church, without much involvement in parish life, is a great concern for many Catholic leaders.

    What main challenges do you see for the American church under the next pope?

    I would argue that the American church’s biggest challenge is how to heal the factionalism within itself.

    On the one hand, there is a great deal of common ground among the most active Catholics, even with the diversity still found here. According to our analysis, 20% of Catholics are “high commitment”: those who say they attend Mass weekly, are unlikely to leave the faith, and that the church is very important to them. These Catholics are more likely to depart from their political party’s position on an issue if it does not align with Catholic teachings. For example, high-commitment Catholic Republicans are much more likely to support the bishops’ position on making the immigration process easier for families. High-commitment Catholic Democrats, meanwhile, are more likely to be against abortion than are their moderate- or low-commitment counterparts.

    In other words, these high-commitment Catholics tend to be less polarized and could find common cause with one another.

    Catholics pray during Mass at Benedictine College on Dec. 3, 2023, in Atchison, Kan.
    AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

    However, there are more extreme pockets – such as those who called into question the legitimacy of Francis’ papacy – that are more militant about their vision of Catholicism. While these Catholics are few in number, they are very vocal. There are fringe groups that mobilized to try to change the direction of the Catholic Church after Francis’ papacy, which they saw as a series of liberal reforms.

    Within more mainstream Catholicism, there are divides over styles of worship, with media attention on some young Americans flocking to more conservative or traditional parishes. However, sociologist Tim Clydesdale and religion scholar Kathleen Garces-Foley found that young adult Catholics are split: While some are attracted to churches with pastors who demonstrate “orthodoxy,” a similar number prefer “openness.”

    What do you wish more people understood about Catholicism in the U.S.?

    I think the “missing piece” for many is the incredible diversity of U.S. Catholicism, from race and ethnicity to politics and practice. Many Americans tend to associate the religion with one or two issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage, and assume that Catholics are fairly monolithic, both in their demographics and their politics.

    Catholics themselves can also forget – or never learn – that their small slice of Catholicism is not the whole of Catholicism.

    Recognizing and elevating what unites this vast family of Catholics, both personally and collectively, is going to be critical as the church moves forward.

    The work mentioned in this article was funded largely by the Louisville Institute. Her previous research has received funding from many sources, including the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.

    – ref. No matter who the next pope is, US Catholics stand ‘at a crossroads’ − a sociologist explains – https://theconversation.com/no-matter-who-the-next-pope-is-us-catholics-stand-at-a-crossroads-a-sociologist-explains-255177

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: MAGA’s ‘war on empathy’ might not be original, but it is dangerous

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Michael Cameron, PhD Candidate of English, Dalhousie University

    During his most recent appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, Elon Musk levelled a critique at empathy, calling it “the fundamental weakness of western civilization.”

    If your first instinct is to brush this off as another example of Musk’s awkwardness, we suggest you think again. As journalist Julia Carrie Wong noted in The Guardian in April, Musk’s comments have appeared “amid a growing wave of opposition to empathy from across the American right.”

    A diverse coalition of figures have taken up this “war on empathy,” including pastor Joe Rigney, conservative podcaster Allie Beth Stuckey and marketing professor Gad Saad.

    Each has coined their own meme-able phrase: “The Sin of Empathy,” “Toxic Empathy” and “Suicidal Empathy,” respectively.

    You may find a war on empathy perplexing — even downright dangerous — given that our contemporary global historical moment is one marked by climate-induced migration, rising political authoritarianism and a “relentless opposition” against LGBTQIA+ rights.

    Doesn’t this moment call out for more empathy rather than less?

    What is empathy anyway?

    But first, we need to know what we are talking about.

    Some recent criticisms of empathy have been premised on bad definitions. For instance, Albert Mohler, the president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, recently claimed that empathy is “destructive” for immigration policy because “empathy means never having to say no.” This definition is not accurate.

    Though a precise definition of empathy still eludes us, empathy is simply the ability to feel what someone else might be feeling. “Imagining yourself in another’s place,” writes neurologist Richard E. Cytowic, “is the basis of empathy.” Coming from a different angle, literary scholar Suzanne Keen defines empathy as “a vicarious, spontaneous sharing of affect” that “can be provoked… even by reading.”

    The word “empathy” was coined in 1909. Previously, what we today call “empathy” fell under the name “sympathy.” For instance, writing in the 18th century, Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith described sympathy as the imaginative capacity to “enter as it were into [another’s] body, and become in some measure the same person.”

    With the discovery of “mirror neurons,” modern neuroscience has in a sense validated Smith’s theories. As neuroscientist Christian Keysers explains: “The mirror system builds a bridge between the minds of two people,” showing that our brains are not only “deeply social” but also “magically connected to each other.”

    Put simply, we are hardwired for empathy.

    Sympathy and social contagion

    In our research, we have explored literary depictions of self-destructive, suicidal and monstrous sympathies. We recognize some parallels between MAGA’s war on empathy and conceptual debates of the past, parallels at times interesting and worrisome.

    During his appearance on Rogan’s podcast, Saad criticized Bishop Mariann Edgar Budde’s appeal to Trump for mercy on behalf of undocumented immigrants and those in the LGBTQIA+ community, suggesting it was indicative of the “parasitic idea” of open borders and an example of “suicidal empathy.”

    A few months later, Canadian pop-psychologist Jordan Peterson echoed Saad and told Rogan that today’s political left is vulnerable to those who “parasitize empathy.”

    This association between empathy and parasitic contagion is not at all new.

    As literary scholar Mary Fairclough explains, in the 18th and 19th centuries, sympathy was “understood as a disruptive social phenomenon which functioned to spread disorder and unrest between individuals and even across nations like a ‘contagion.’”

    As an example, Fairclough quotes the author Thomas De Quincey, who opined that “many a man has been drawn, by the contagion of sympathy with his own class acting as a mob, into outrages of destruction.”

    The writer Mary Shelley literalized this notion of contagious sympathy in her 1826 novel The Last Man, which depicts a (perhaps uncomfortably familiar) plague pandemic. The novel paints sympathy as a method of mass control and societal dissolution just as contagious as the plague.

    But unlike De Quincey, Shelley also celebrates sympathy as our most valuable and effective collective resource in times of crisis. This celebration is most notable in the character of Adrian, who devotes his life to “bring[ing] patience, and sympathy, and such aid as art affords, to the bed of disease.’”

    The uses and abuses of empathy

    Much as Shelley suggests for sympathy, research shows that empathy must be properly channelled so it isn’t used to divide and manipulate.

    For example, research shows that empathy is not impartial. People tend to empathize more easily with those who share their racial or social background, and less with those who are perceived as different. In other words, racial prejudices may bias our instinctive empathetic responses.

    At the same time, empathy has been linked to problematic practices like racial impersonation and colonial appropriation, where members of dominant groups claim to identify with marginalized people in ways that often reinforce power imbalances rather than dismantle them.

    But MAGA’s approach to empathy is less a well-meaning critique than an all-out war and comes at the issues with a far less benevolent set of assumptions and goals. As Wong noted: “We are witnessing the construction of the ideological architecture to excuse violence and suffering on a mass scale.”

    Consider what Musk said to Rogan regarding immigration:

    “I believe in empathy, like I think you should care about other people, but you need to have empathy for civilization as a whole and not commit to a civilizational suicide.”

    This comment is strikingly similar to the idea of “racial suicide” endorsed by eugenicist thinkers in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Racial suicide was a concept rooted in the xenophobic fear that one’s own ethnic population would be replaced by another racialized population that happened to have a higher birth rate.

    As the historian Rob Boddice notes, “eugenic morality” was “to be guided by sympathy construed as sympathy for the whole of society” rather than towards individuals. For the eugenicists, this ideology justified extreme measures, such as forced sterilizations and racial segregation. The horrors of eugenics and its influence on the Nazi Holocaust are well documented.

    Despite these history lessons, Musk and his ilk, however, seem unperturbed and even enthusiastic about repeating history.

    Much can be said about empathy’s potential limitations alongside its many virtues. But while MAGA supporters may have balked at her speech and her call for empathy, we would do well to remember the words of Bishop Budde:

    “We should be merciful to the stranger, for we were once strangers in this land.”

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. MAGA’s ‘war on empathy’ might not be original, but it is dangerous – https://theconversation.com/magas-war-on-empathy-might-not-be-original-but-it-is-dangerous-255300

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tips for starting a business in Canada, according to entrepreneurs who have done it

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Nazha Gali, Assistant Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, University of Windsor

    Each year, about 100,000 small businesses are created in Canada. But what does it actually take to start a business in Canada — not just on paper, but in practice?

    To better understand what launching a startup in Canada truly involves, we interviewed entrepreneurs across various sectors. As experts in strategy and entrepreneurship, we combined their first-hand experiences with research findings to determine key factors that contribute to business success.

    What emerged is a clearer picture of the realities of Canadian entrepreneurship that shows building a business is as much about managing relationships, risks and resilience as it is about having a novel idea.

    Solving real consumer problems

    Before launching a business, it’s essential to identify your target customers. Successful ventures begin by solving a real problem for a clearly defined group. Conducting market research to ensure a strong product-market fit is a critical first step in this process.

    One of the most common blind spots for new entrepreneurs, according to Ariz Bhimani, founder of apparel brand BRFZY, is assuming the problem they face is universal. “Without genuine data from potential customers, you’re just guessing,” he said in an email interview.

    This is where customer discovery comes in. It involves understanding customers’ situations, needs and pain points. Techniques such as user interviews and creating detailed customer personas can help founders better understand who their product is for.

    This approach is crucial for both startups and established organizations looking to enter new markets.

    Another vital part of the early-stage process is building a minimum viable product (MVP): a basic version of a product that includes only the core features needed to test the idea with users.

    MVPs allow entrepreneurs to gather feedback and refine the product before investing significant time or money in full development.

    Manage your money wisely

    Once a market need is identified, securing funding is often the next major challenge. This process typically begins with creating a compelling pitch — a presentation that outlines the product or service and financial projections to attract potential investors.

    This pitch is crucial to a startup’s success, Mohammad Faiyaz, founder and CEO of Wavermark, told us.

    There are tools and resources available to help, such as the pitch deck developed by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and AI feedback tool AI Fornax.

    Having a solid pitch prepared is a necessary step to attract potential investors for your business.
    (Shutterstock)

    But while funding is essential, managing those funds wisely is equally important. Chris Colasanti, vice president at Rocket Mortgage Canada, explained via email that one of the most common mistakes new entrepreneurs make is failing to control costs.

    Many first-time founders become preoccupied with revenue growth while overlooking expenses. Colasanti argued that unless you have endless investor backing, your survival depends on lean operations. “Obsess about your costs,” he advised.

    Bhimani echoed this caution. “I would budget two to three times more time and money to get a task done, especially in the ideation stage,” he wrote to us. Entrepreneurs should be prepared for unexpected costs.

    Building a business plan

    Many startup founders are eager to scale their businesses quickly, but doing this prematurely can increase the risk of failure by 20 to 40 per cent.

    “Growth is one of the most taxing activities a company can experience,” Colasanti told us. “Fight the urge to grow. Hire when it hurts and let sales drive your growth.”

    To scale successfully, companies need a strong foundation. This means having a comprehensive business plan in place. A well-structured plan outlines a company’s mission, market strategy, operations, finances and key milestones.

    Beyond serving as a roadmap for internal decision-making, business plans also help communicate a company’s vision and strategy to investors and other stakeholders.

    The Business Development Bank of Canada offers guides to help entrepreneurs build effective business plans.

    Hire the right people for the job

    Hiring the right employees for the job is crucial for startup success. “You cannot overpay for talent,” Colasanti told us. “The first 10 people you hire will make or break your business.”

    Hiring decisions should go hand-in-hand with intentionally building a workplace culture. Research shows that a positive workplace culture leads to higher employee satisfaction, retention and overall productivity.

    “Your business will develop a culture whether you create it or not,” he said. Many first-time founders let poor behaviours slide to avoid conflict, but this is risky.

    Hiring the right employees for the job is crucial for startup success.
    (Shutterstock)

    Bhimani also emphasized the importance of hiring those who genuinely understand your company’s mission. “Then I know they’re invested and will put forth their best effort,” he told us.

    There are important legal considerations to keep in mind. Employers must comply with federal and provincial labour laws, and entrepreneurs should seek legal advice or consult government resources when building their teams.

    Seek out a knowledgeable mentor

    While entrepreneurship is often seen as a solo pursuit, research and experience suggest otherwise. In reality, founders who are mentored by successful entrepreneurs are over three times more likely to be successful themselves.

    Both Bhimani and Dhwani Shah, founder and CEO of Aadhya Navik Inc., highlighted the importance of mentors.

    “Even if you just have an idea,” Bhimani told us via email, “you should strive to talk about it as much as possible with people in the industry who have relevant experience.”

    Shah similarly attributed her growth to constant learning and expert guidance: “I have a long-term vision and actively seek advice while working on the product.”

    Resources like the Business Benefits Finder and programs like Futurpreneur Canada and Startup Canada can connect early-stage founders with financing and mentorship.

    Passion and persistence are key

    Mindset is also a differentiating factor that sets successful entrepreneurs apart. The entrepreneurial mindset is a way of thinking that involves seeing opportunities where others see obstacles, and maintaining a strong sense of initiative and resilience.

    All the entrepreneurs we interviewed said intrinsic motivation was the key to longevity. “Starting a business makes you wear multiple hats, which can be intimidating but also gives you immense satisfaction,” Shah told us. Research has also confirmed this to be true.



    Read more:
    Entrepreneurs know that failure is sometimes necessary – here’s what we can learn from them

    Colasanti told us fear often leads founders to switch from experimentation to protection mode too early. “They stop taking big swings and start firing bullets instead of cannonballs,” he said. That mindset shift can lead to complacency and stagnation.

    Successful entrepreneurs are often those who can stay agile, embrace discomfort and persist even when the stakes are high.

    Make use of resources

    There are a number of supports for entrepreneurs in Canada. National initiatives like Futurpreneur Canada and Startup Canada, and financial supports from Business Development Bank of Canada, are also available.

    Most provinces and territories have web pages dedicated to resources for small businesses and entrepreneurs, including British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario.

    In southern Ontario, WETech Alliance offers a model example of how regional innovation hubs can support founders. Their programs help connect entrepreneurs to expertise, capital and community.

    Starting a business in Canada has never been more possible or more competitive. As the experts we spoke to remind us, success lies in execution. The journey is hard, but for those who are ready, it can also be deeply rewarding.

    Bharat Maheshwari has received funding from Mitacs, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, and several other organizations that regularly fund academic research in Canada.

    Nazha Gali does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tips for starting a business in Canada, according to entrepreneurs who have done it – https://theconversation.com/tips-for-starting-a-business-in-canada-according-to-entrepreneurs-who-have-done-it-247985

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: India-Pakistan strikes: 5 essential reads on decades of rivalry and tensions over Kashmir

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matt Williams, Senior International Editor

    Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol a street in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir on May 4, 2025. Firdous Nazir/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Indian airstrikes deep into Pakistan and retaliatory shelling across the border have put the subcontinent on edge once again, with many fearing a further escalation between the two nuclear neighbors.

    At least 26 people were killed on May 6, 2025, by missiles launched by India, according to Pakistani authorities. India says it targeted “terrorist infrastructure” sites in the operation in response to an attack on April 22 that saw dozens of tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir killed by gunmen.

    Pakistan warned it would respond “at a time, place and manner of its choosing.” Meanwhile, shelling by Pakistan across the “line of control” separating the Indian- and Pakistani-controlled parts of Kashmir killed 15 people, India says.

    It represents the most serious fighting between the two countries in decades. But Kashmir has long been a source of tension between India and Pakistan, as articles from The Conversation’s archive explain.

    1. The roots of the conflict

    The dispute over Kashmir, which sits on the northern tip of the Indian subcontinent and borders Pakistan to the west, can be traced back to the partition of India in 1947 and the policies of colonial British rule that preceded it.

    As Sumit Ganguly, an expert of Indian politics and foreign policy, explains, the British gave the rulers of nominally autonomous princely states the choice of which country they wanted to join post-partition: Muslim-majority Pakistan or Hindu-majority India. This put Maharaja Hari Singh, the monarch of Jammu and Kashmir, in a tricky position – he was a Hindu ruling over a predominantly Muslim population.

    “India, which was created as a secular state, wanted to incorporate Kashmir to demonstrate that a predominantly Muslim region could thrive in a Hindu-majority country committed to secularism. Pakistan, on the other hand, sought Kashmir because of its physical proximity and Muslim majority,” writes Ganguly.

    While Singh was still deliberating, a rebellion broke out in Kashmir, with newly independent Pakistan giving the insurgents support. India sent troops in on condition that Singh formally accede to India, and the first of four Indian-Pakistan wars began in 1947. It ended with Pakistan gaining control of a third of the disputed region.

    “Neither country has wholly reconciled itself to Kashmir’s status. India claims the state in its entirety, as it became a part of its territory legally. Pakistan, however, has historically held the view that Kashmir was ceded to India by a ruler who did not represent its majority Muslim population. Indeed, this dispute between two nuclear-armed powers remains a potential global flashpoint,” Ganguly adds.



    Read more:
    75 years ago, Britain’s plan for Pakistani and Indian independence left unresolved conflicts on both sides – especially when it comes to Kashmir

    2. More than a border dispute

    But to see Kashmir solely through the lens of Indian-Pakistani rivalry would do the complicated conflict a disservice. Often neglected in this reading is the views of many Kashmiris themselves, many of whom would prefer independence.

    Chitralekha Zutshi, a professor of history at William & Mary, notes that the desire for autonomy by groups in the region has resulted in numerous independence movements and repeated uprisings.

    Fighters from the pro-independence Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front parade in 1991.
    Mushtaq Ali/AFP via Getty Images

    Pakistan has supported some of these movements, a fact that India has seized upon to “write off unrest in the Kashmir Valley as a byproduct of its territorial dispute with Pakistan,” Zutshi writes. But in so doing, the grievances of “an entire generation of young Kashmiris” who view India as “an occupying power” have been ignored, the scholar continues.

    She concludes: “The Kashmir dispute cannot be resolved bilaterally by India and Pakistan alone – even if the two countries were willing to work together to resolve their differences. This is because the conflict has many sides.”



    Read more:
    Kashmir conflict is not just a border dispute between India and Pakistan

    3. A water war?

    Backing up the claim that the views of Kashmiris are often neglected is the fact that the Indus Waters Treaty – a crucial decades-old agreement that allows Pakistan and India to share water use from the region’s rivers – was drawn up largely without the input of Kashmiri people, writes Fazlul Haq, a research scientist at Ohio State University.

    Haq, who helps run the university’s Indus Basin Water Project, explains that even before the latest flare-up of violence, a dispute over the treaty was causing tension between India and Pakistan. The problem was that the original treaty, hailed as a success for many years, didn’t take into account the impact of climate change. Melting glaciers have put the long-term sustainability of the treaty at risk, jeopardizing the water supply for more than 300 million people.


    Fazlul Haq/Bryan Mark/Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center/Ohio State University, CC BY

    “Despite being the primary source of water for the basin, Kashmiris have had no role in negotiations or decision-making under the treaty,” Haq writes. Nor did it provide a mechanism for any regional disputes. “Tensions over hydropower projects in Kashmir were bringing India and Pakistan toward diplomatic deadlock long before the recent attack,” Haq notes.

    “The treaty now exists in a state of limbo. While it technically remains in force, India’s formal notice for review has introduced uncertainty, halting key cooperative mechanisms and casting doubt on the treaty’s long-term durability,” Haq writes. Pakistan has said any attempt to disrupt its water supply under the treaty would be considered “an act of war.”



    Read more:
    Tensions over Kashmir and a warming planet have placed the Indus Waters Treaty on life support

    4. On the precipice of a new war?

    There have been four full-scale conflicts between India and Pakistan: in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999.

    But since the turn of the millennium, cross-border skirmishes in Kashmir have largely been contained, in part due to external pressure from the United States and others who fear the economic and regional consequences of a conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

    International relations expert Ian Hall, of Griffith University in Australia, writes that the calculus has changed a little. He notes that there is little economic cost to escalation, with “practically no trade between India and Pakistan.”

    The main concern for both sides now is “the political cost they would suffer from not taking military action,” Hall adds.



    Read more:
    India and Pakistan have fought many wars in the past. Are we on the precipice of a new one?

    5. The need for a Pakistan-India hotline

    During past crises between Pakistan and India, Washington has played an important role in deescalating tensions.

    U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments that he believes Pakistan and India will “figure it out one way or the other” suggests this is one occasion in which the U.S. may take a back seat.

    But as Syed Ali Zia Jaffery at the University of Lahore and Nicholas John Wheeler at the University of Birmingham in the U.K. note, that creates a problem.

    “The absence of a trusted confidential line of communication between the leaders of India and Pakistan is a major barrier to empathetic communication. It prevents the two reaching a proper appreciation of shared vulnerabilities that is so critical to crisis de-escalation,” they write.

    Their article uses the example of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 to tout the importance of what the two scholars describe as “empathetic channels of communication.” U.S. President John F. Kennedy and his Soviet counterpart, Nikita Khrushchev, “exchanged a series of letters in which they acknowledged and expressed their shared vulnerability to nuclear war,” Jaffery and Wheeler write. Establishing mutual empathy and a bond of trust were critical to the peaceful resolution of the crisis.

    “Such a hotline between the highest levels of Indian and Pakistani diplomacy would be an important step towards preventing these crises from spinning out of control. More crucially, it could play a pivotal role in managing crises when they do occur, offering a vital channel for reassurance and de-escalation,” Jaffery and Wheeler add.



    Read more:
    Why a hotline is needed to help bring India and Pakistan back from the brink of a disastrous war

    – ref. India-Pakistan strikes: 5 essential reads on decades of rivalry and tensions over Kashmir – https://theconversation.com/india-pakistan-strikes-5-essential-reads-on-decades-of-rivalry-and-tensions-over-kashmir-256157

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Trump fails to understand China’s trade war tactics, and what his negotiators should be reading

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tom Harper, Lecturer in International Relations, University of East London

    As US and Chinese representatives prepare to meet in Switzerland in an effort to ease their escalating trade war, a potential sign of Beijing’s approach has emerged in an opinion piece published in the state-owned journal Beijing Daily.

    Articles in the publication are often seen as a reflection of Beijing’s official stance. The latest piece – Today, it is necessary to revisit On Protracted War – argues that the trade war is an American attempt to strangle China’s economic growth and that it is necessary to perceive the current trade tensions as a long-term development.

    What’s particularly important here is that the title refers to former Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s 1938 essay On Protracted War, a piece of writing that set out Mao’s approach to combating the invading Japanese during the second Sino-Japanese war between 1937 and 1945.

    This strategy was also key to the subsequent establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, after the communist victory in the long-running Chinese civil war. Mao became the chairman of the Chinese Communist party from 1943 until his death in 1976 and created a set of political theories referred to as Maoism. He wrote extensively on political strategy.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences. Join The Conversation for free today.

    Chinese policymakers and media figures often invoke the nation’s history to justify domestic and foreign policy. And the decision to reference Mao’s text reflects not only China’s strategy in the current trade war but also the lasting influence of his ideas.

    Mao’s 1938 essay described a struggle that might seem, at first glance, a world away from the current China/US tariff conflict. His key thesis was that guerrilla warfare was a long-term affair with little chance for a quick victory.

    Mao’s argument was that a war of attrition would end with a Chinese victory as it would slowly bleed the conventionally stronger Japanese forces of resources.
    Such an approach has been a key feature of insurgencies throughout the modern world, with movements such as the Taliban in Afghanistan using the long war of attrition against larger or more technologically advanced foes.

    By invoking On Protracted War, it would appear that Beijing perceives its economic struggles with the US as a conflict without a swift resolution, something that may come as a shock to Donald Trump who is clearly signalling that he now wants a deal.

    This long view approach has also been reflected in how Beijing has been preparing for a second Trump trade war ever since its experiences in the first Trump presidency.

    How US/China tariff war is affecting US markets.

    In contrast to China, the US administration appears to have banked on the trade war being a comparatively brief affair that should be ended by a quick and decisive knock-out blow against Beijing. And a public relations coup for Trump. This explains the showmanship behind the “liberation day” announcements, and the speed at which Washington deployed its key moves.

    But by preparing its citizens for a protracted trade war, it would appear that China’s strategy, similarly to Mao’s, is to slow down the process and grind out the best deal it can over time.

    Beijing believes that Chinese consumers are more capable of “eating bitterness” (coping with hardship) than Americans. So US diplomats would be well advised to dip into On Protracted War to understand more of China’s president Xi Jinping’s intentions.

    Mao’s long shadow

    However, this is not the only way in which Mao’s strategies are relevant to global politics right now.

    Another of Mao’s political ideas was what he termed the “people’s war”. This envisioned a slow movement where one group creates “shadow institutions” that gradually displace established ones in order to build support from the local population.

    This echoes part of China’s approach to globalisation, where China has supported, or created, alternatives to US-led institutions.

    Many of Beijing’s international institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the belt and the road initiative are created to be alternatives to more established international bodies, such as the IMF and the World Bank. These Beijing felt were too dominated by the US.

    While China has worked on this policy for decades, it seems to chime with Trump’s lack of commitment to US involvement in international institutions, such as the IMF and Nato. In this aspect of international politics, Xi and Trump seem to have somewhat similar goals, and could open up more space for Chinese leadership of these institutions.

    It’s becoming clear that the Trump administration has severely miscalculated by assuming that Beijing would quickly capitulate, showing a lack of understanding of Chinese culture and political history. The expected instant deal has failed to materialise, and US stores are now warning that shelves may soon be empty of many goods.

    The trade war has become a war of attrition, and whatever moves Xi makes now are likely to be only his first in what he sees as a very long game, in the great Maoist tradition.

    Tom Harper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Trump fails to understand China’s trade war tactics, and what his negotiators should be reading – https://theconversation.com/why-trump-fails-to-understand-chinas-trade-war-tactics-and-what-his-negotiators-should-be-reading-256126

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Your fridge might be a breeding ground for bacteria – here’s how to fix it

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Oleksii Omelchenko, Doctoral Researcher in listeria and other invasive pathogens, Quadram Institute

    Nicoleta Ionescu/Shutterstock

    The kitchen is often the heart of the home – a place where families gather and meals begin. And at the start of it all? The fridge. This is where we safely store much of our food, and as technology advances, fridges are getting smarter: being able to track inventory, suggest recipes, even displaying the news.

    But of all their features, temperature remains the most critical. We rely on fridges to keep food fresh, but if the temperature isn’t right, they can do the opposite – essentially becoming cosy incubators for bacteria.

    As a microbiologist, I might find that fascinating, but it’s definitely not ideal for the sausages you brought home from the farmer’s market.

    When looking across many households, the average temperature in fridges is 5.3°C – just above the recommended safe range of 0–5°C (32–41°F). More concerning is how often temperatures fluctuate. Many fridges spend over half their time above that safe limit.

    Some have even been found running as high as 15°C (59°F), which, in parts of the UK, is practically a warm summer’s day. At those temperatures, bacteria can multiply quickly, increasing the risk of food spoilage or even food-borne illness.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences. Join The Conversation for free today.

    So, what’s going wrong? Part of the problem is that many fridges lack an accurate, accessible way to monitor their internal temperature. Let’s admit: most of us don’t know what the dial settings actually mean.

    On top of that, every time you open the door, warm air rushes in. The longer the door stays open, especially if you’re lingering while choosing a snack, the more the internal temperature climbs toward room temperature, creating a more suitable environment for bacteria to thrive.

    Keep bacteria in check

    Here are simple ways to keep your food fresher – and safer:

    • Minimise door openings. Don’t leave the fridge hanging open while you unload groceries.

    • Use a rotating organiser. A lazy susan can help you avoid searching through a shelf full of products for that half-used sauce bottle.

    • Clean your door seals. Every few months, check for mould or grime and make sure the seals close tightly.

    Temperature also varies inside your fridge. The coldest spot is usually at the back, while the warmest is on the door. That means items like milk or raw meat are best stored near the back – not in the door. The door is fine for butter or fizzy drinks.

    Even though many modern fridges have a built-in sensor, it often only reflects the temperature at one spot. In fact, 68% of households never adjust their temperature settings.

    A practical tip? Place a few stick-on thermometers in different areas of your fridge. If any are regularly above 5°C (41°F), it’s time to adjust. But remember: the built-in indicators inside your fridge don’t always reflect the actual temperature throughout your fridge.

    Also, avoid overcrowding. Aim to keep your fridge about 75% full, so cold air can circulate properly. You can make room by storing items such as stone fruits, tomatoes, peppers, potatoes and honey in a cool, dry cupboard – these don’t need refrigeration.

    But temperature isn’t the only concern. Even a well-chilled fridge can harbour invisible risks. Studies show that fridges can contain pathogens, likely to have been introduced previously via food or packaging that may have been contaminated.

    While cold temperatures stops many bacteria from growing, some – like Listeria monocytogenes – can survive and even multiply in low temperatures. Listeria, which is especially dangerous for pregnant people and older adults, can be found in soft cheeses, cured or smoked fish (including sushi), deli meats, pre-packaged fruit, frozen veg and ready-made sandwiches.

    Reduce risk

    To reduce risk for yourself and others, follow recommendations from the food safety authorities:

    • Keep raw foods – like meat and fish that need cooking – separate from ready-to-eat items such as fruits or sandwiches.

    • Store raw meat and fish on the bottom shelf of the fridge. That way, if any juices leak, they won’t drip onto other foods.

    • Consume ready-to-eat products within four hours of removing them from the fridge.

    • Wash your hands regularly with soap and water before, during and after meal preparation.

    • Follow the cooking instructions on packaging when applicable.

    Improving your fridge habits might not sound thrilling, but it helps food stay fresher longer, keeps your fridge working more efficiently, and most importantly, protects your health – and the health of your family.

    Oh, and about that leftover chicken from dinner early in the week… We’ve all done the sniff test. But just because your leftovers smell fine doesn’t mean they are fine. Bacteria like Salmonella or Listeria don’t always come with a funky odour.



    Read more:
    The sniff test is not reliable for food safety – here’s why

    Oleksii Omelchenko receives funding from BBSRC, FSA.

    Judith Evans has received funding from the European Commission, EPSRC, NGOs and development agencies.

    – ref. Your fridge might be a breeding ground for bacteria – here’s how to fix it – https://theconversation.com/your-fridge-might-be-a-breeding-ground-for-bacteria-heres-how-to-fix-it-252339

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Trump’s plans for tariffs on foreign films probably won’t have a happy ending

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jean Chalaby, Professor of Sociology, City St George’s, University of London

    Bill Chizek/Shutterstock

    With its tariffs policies, the administration of US president Donald Trump aims to correct the country’s persistent goods trade deficit. The president has argued that the US has been “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered” by other countries. Trump feels it is now America’s “turn to prosper” – and he has the film and TV industries in his sights with threats of 100% tariffs on foreign films.

    Economists cite multiple reasons why tariffs are bad for economies, from stunting growth to adding inflationary pressure. But there is a more fundamental problem, which is notable in the case of the film and TV industries. While trade data reflects a country’s overall performance, it says nothing about the nature and ownership of the traded goods.

    Indeed, the cross-border activities and foreign investments of US-based multinationals widen the US trade deficit. Global trade flows in film and TV are a good example.

    In terms of the origin of a movie, it is determined by factors including the nationality of those in key creative roles, financing, filming location and the culture reflected in the theme and story. The US has long been the world’s largest exporter of films and TV, dominating global media flows for much of the 20th century.

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    In the 1970s, the country exported seven times as much film and TV programming as that of its nearest competitor (the UK). Three decades later, the US was still exporting 4.5 times the amount of content it imported – US$12.6 billion (£9.4 billion) versus US$2.8 billion.

    US exports have increased, reaching US$24.7 billion in 2023, and Hollywood remains the world’s largest movie exporter. However, the US balance of trade in the sector has shifted dramatically. While US exports grew by 95.4% between 2006 and 2023, US imports increased by 898%.

    The trade in film and TV programming achieved balance in 2019, and my research shows that since then, the US has imported more films and TV shows than it exported. The deficit was narrowing in 2023 but imports remained 12.1% higher than exports (US$27.7 billion versus US$24.3 billion).

    This deficit deserves an explanation. Are Asian and European producers suddenly flooding the US with films and TV shows? Has the American public developed an insatiable appetite for Nordic noir or K-drama? The reality is that US-based media conglomerates like Disney, Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery have changed strategy. They have moved away from their previous focus on exports to direct-to-consumer international distribution.

    What does this mean? Well, instead of licensing content to foreign broadcasters and cinemas (which they still do, but to a lesser extent), they retail their content internationally, using their own global streaming services.

    The US entertainment paradox

    Maintaining these large content libraries explains the shift of the US trade balance. US-based streamers export less because they now retain more of their content for exclusive distribution on their own streaming platforms. And they import more because they acquire foreign content in greater quantities than ever before.

    For example, Stranger Things is produced by Netflix in the US. As such, it does not show up in export figures. Squid Game, on the other hand, is a Korean export and shows up in US import data.

    Moreover, Walt Disney has decided to retain the exclusive rights to its franchises, forgoing licensing sales. In 2020, the company licensed 59% of its scripted series to third parties, 18% in 2021, and only 2% in 2022.

    All the US streaming giants license and commission foreign content. Netflix in particular has spent more on international content than US programming since 2024 (US$7.9 billion versus US$7.5 billion). Hence the creation of a paradox: US trade data in audiovisual services reveals a trade deficit, yet the US-based entertainment industry has never been so dominant globally.

    There are similar patterns in industries in which US-based multinationals are located at the apex of transnational supply chains. The jeans that Levi Strauss imports from Bangladesh, the trainers that Nike imports from Vietnam, and the car components Ford imports from Brazil all show up in US trade statistics. But these goods are, essentially, American-owned assets.

    About 70% of trade involves global value chains (GVC), as raw materials and components cross borders multiple times before being assembled into a final product.

    In today’s global economy, the complexity of most products requires companies to cooperate along transnational production networks. As businesses and countries specialise in specific tasks, GVCs are the most efficient way of producing goods and services. The streaming industry simply mirrors these wider patterns.

    Mindful of the US trade deficit in films and TV programmes, Trump announced the plans for 100% tariffs on all films produced outside the US. However, his attempt to “make Hollywood great again” is misguided.

    While Hollywood has new rivals to contend with, notably South Korea, it remains the world’s largest film and TV exporter. Following a short period of decline in the late 2010s, US exports have continued to grow to reach a record US$24.3 billion.

    For Trump, the vexing issue is that the US imports more films and TV programmes than its exports. But that is due to US-based platforms’ foreign content hoarding. Adolescence and Squid Game have indeed contributed to extending the gap between US imports and exports, but they are US-owned assets that have earned Netflix hundreds of millions of dollars in subscription fees. (Squid Game’s impact value for Netflix was estimated at US$891 million in 2021.)

    Squid Game is an import, but it’s a giant money-spinner for US streamer Netflix.

    And American content on US-based streaming giants does not show up in trade data. The whole world is watching Black Mirror and Ransom Canyon, but these series have never been exported. Rather, they are on a global platform (Netflix). US-based media conglomerates have never been so dominant in the global media market.

    In short, trade data does not tell the whole story. If implemented, these tariffs will certainly have far-reaching consequences for the film and TV industry. But they are unlikely to make anyone more prosperous.

    Jean Chalaby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Trump’s plans for tariffs on foreign films probably won’t have a happy ending – https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-plans-for-tariffs-on-foreign-films-probably-wont-have-a-happy-ending-256004

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Aaliyah’s turn as a vampire in the nu-metal film Queen of the Damned is an often-overlooked part of her legacy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesca Sobande, Reader in Digital Media Studies, Cardiff University

    Black women’s influence on metal and connected sub-genres is still often overlooked. As part of my research into Black women in pop culture, I’ve looked at the relationship between race, gender, onscreen portrayals of immortality and nu-metal.

    Nu-metal, popularised in the early 2000s, is known for combining the mood of metal with riffs and hues of rap and hip-hop. The genre drew on the creativity of Black artists, singers and musicians across different genres and generations.

    My research on this has involved reflecting on the nu-metal-themed film Queen of the Damned (2002), based on Anne Rice’s enduring Vampire Chronicles books. It starred the singer Aaliyah as the powerful vampire Akasha. It was to be her final acting role before her death aged just 22. Shortly before, she had also signed to appear in the sequel to The Matrix, another nu-metal franchise.

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    Aaliyah doesn’t sing in Queen of the Damned, but her hip-hop stardom is still central to the film, as is suggested by the emphasis on her image in its marketing. Aaliyah being foregrounded in a nu-metal film, paired with the limited dialogue and plot development of her character, reflects how Black women in alt and rock music and accompanying media are sometimes treated as simply there to be seen, not heard.

    With a 17% “tomatometer” score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 2.8 star ranking on Letterboxed, Queen of the Damned is generally seen as a flop. But despite this, the film remains influential, particularly due to Aaliyah’s poised presence as a hip-hop star in a fictional and vampiric nu-metal world.

    The character of Akasha can be criticised for representing stereotypical ideas of Black women as being dangerously seductive. Still, Aaliyah’s portrayal made an impression.

    Aaliyah in a scene from Queen of the Damned.

    In recent years the film has received renewed attention, sparked by the resurgence of nu-metal and the creation of the AMC TV show Interview with the Vampire (2022-present). Its much anticipated third season is due to include Akasha. This has led to some fans calling for her to be played by hip-hop artist Megan Thee Stallion. The rapper made a Paris Fashion Week appearance in 2025 in an outfit that harked back to Aaliyah’s performance as Akasha.

    This demonstrates that part of Aaliyah’s ongoing impact is the way she established the character of Akasha as canonically connected to hip-hop.

    More than ‘seen, not heard’

    Understandably eclipsed by her wider work, Queen of the Damned is not focused on in many ways Aaliyah is memorialised. But, for me, her involvement in the film symbolises how Black women’s creativity and coolness is leveraged by music genres and their media marketing.

    Aaliyah in 2000.
    Wiki Commons, CC BY-SA

    When remembering Aaliyah’s cultural influence, her multifaceted role in the new millennium and nu-metal landscape must be meaningfully acknowledged. More than that, how all Black women in music are publicly memorialised must involve more care and recognition of their important work across, between and beyond genres.

    When news spread of the death of Roberta Flack in February, her fans took to social media to mourn her loss. Legend, musician, singer, teacher – those were just some of the many words used in online posts rightly celebrating her life.

    But as layla-roxanne hill and I discuss in our new book, Look, Don’t Touch: Reflections on the Freedom to Feel, memorialising people as “icons” sometimes reduces or reframes who they were to little more than symbols and soundbites. There should be space to name Black women’s impact on music and society, but in ways that affirm the multitudes of their lives.

    This is touched on in the documentary TLC Forever (2023), as is society’s disregard for the grief experienced by Black women such as TLC members Rozonda Thomas and Tionne Watkins. Following the death of their friend and band member Lisa “Left Eye” Lopes in a bus crash aged 30, they faced pressures to push forward with releasing music while grieving.

    Another documentary, 20 Feet from Stardom (2013), also illuminated the inequalities faced by Black women singers. Their signature sounds propel the success of many genres, but they seldom benefit from this in substantial and sustained ways.

    The trailer for TLC Forever.

    The way the tragic death of Aaliyah was treated is a case in point. The R&B and hip-hop singer died in a plane crash in August 2001. Media headlines mounted, including coverage that referred to “her movie debut last year”, but which did not discuss that role or her broader acting work.

    It may be impossible for any memorial message to fully express and appreciate someone’s essence. However, the ways that Black women are remembered (and forgotten) in society are shaped by the specifics of misogynoir – the interconnected effects of racism, sexism and misogyny.

    Black women are so much more than the binary narratives projected onto them – strong versus soft, young versus old, singer versus actor, survivor versus victim and living versus dead. As the title of one of Aaliyah’s own songs conveys, she was More Than a Woman.

    Francesca Sobande received Impact Acceleration funding from UKRI in 2024, towards a project on “The Cultural Memory and Archived Experiences of Black People in ‘Alternative’ Music Subcultures”, in collaboration with the Museum of Youth Culture.

    – ref. Aaliyah’s turn as a vampire in the nu-metal film Queen of the Damned is an often-overlooked part of her legacy – https://theconversation.com/aaliyahs-turn-as-a-vampire-in-the-nu-metal-film-queen-of-the-damned-is-an-often-overlooked-part-of-her-legacy-251860

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Europe is moving to reposition itself in Donald Trump’s new global order

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    FabrikaSimf/Shutterstock

    The term that perhaps best describes the international impact of the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term is “disruption”. His tariff policy, his abolition of USAID, his questioning of the transatlantic alliance, and his attempted rapprochement with Russia have neither destroyed the liberal international order nor established anything new in its place.

    But the prospects of liberal internationalism under Trump are vanishingly small. And Trumpism, in the guise of an America-first foreign policy, is likely to outlast Trump’s second term.

    That the US is no longer the standard bearer of the liberal international order has been clear for some time. Trump and his Russian and Chinese counterparts, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, appear to see themselves as dominant players in a new multi-polar world order. But it is not clear that a grand bargain between them is possible – or that it would endure.

    Europe is particularly vulnerable to these changes in the international order. Having been able to rely for the past eight decades on an iron-clad American security guarantee, European countries chronically under-invested in their defence capabilities, especially since the end of the cold war.

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    Defence spending as a proportion of GDP may have increased over the past decade but remains lacklustre. And investment into an independent European defence industrial base faces many hurdles.

    These deficiencies predated Trump’s return to the White House. Addressing them will only be possible in a time frame beyond his second term. With no dependable partners left among the world’s great powers, Europe’s predicament – unenviable as it may be for the moment – nonetheless offers an opportunity for the continent to begin to stand on its own feet.

    Early signs of a more independent Europe are promising. In March, the European commission released a white paper on defence which anticipates defence investment of €800 billion (£680 billion) over the next four years.

    The bulk of this will rely on the activation of the so-called “national escape clause”. This allows EU member states to escape penalties if they exceed the normal deficit ceiling of 3% GDP.

    Once activated for the purpose of defence spending, they can now take on additional debt of up to 1.5% of their GDP. By the end of April, 12 EU member states had already requested that the national escape clause be activated, with several more expected to follow.

    Defence is clearly the most urgent problem for Europe. But it isn’t the only aspect to consider when it comes to achieving greater strategic autonomy, something that the European Union has grappled with for more than a decade. In other areas, such as trade and energy, the starting point is a very different one.

    Regarding energy independence, the EU has achieved a remarkable and quick pivot away from Russia. It has just released a final plan to stop all remaining gas imports from Russia by the end of 2027.

    On trade, Donald Trump’s America-first tariff policy has done significant damage to the global system. This has, in turn, created opportunities for the EU, as one of the world’s largest trading blocs, including greater cooperation with China, already one of its largest trading partners.

    Complex relationships

    China and the EU clearly share an interest in preserving a global trade regime from which both have benefited. But their economic interests cannot be separated easily from their geopolitical interests. So far, China has sent very mixed signals to Europe.

    Beijing has, for example, proposed to lift sanctions against some members of the European parliament who have been critical of China in a show of goodwill. But China’s support for Russia continues as well, most recently with Xi’s commitment to visit Moscow for the victory day parade on May 9.

    Standing with Moscow may benefit Beijing in its rivalry with the US by solidifying the no-limits partnership that Xi and Putin announced on the eve of Russia’s full-sale invasion in February 2022. But it does little to win the EU over as a partner in defence of the open international order that Trump is trying his best to shutter.

    On the contrary, in reaffirming China’s commitment to its partnership with Russia, Xi may well have lost whatever chances there were for a European realignment with China.

    The complexities of the EU-China and EU-US relationships – a curious mix of rapidly shifting interests – reflects the EU’s position as the natural centre of gravity of what is left of the west. This is evident in the rapid evolution of the “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine, which brings together 30 countries from across the EU and Nato under French and British leadership.

    Beyond Europe, Trump’s tariff policy has given plans for a strategic partnership between the EU and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) a new lease of life. The CPTPP is a group of 11 Indo-Pacific countries and the UK, which joined last December. It is one of the world’s largest free trade areas, accounting for approximately 15% of global GDP.

    Even without US and Chinese membership, a partnership between the EU and the CPTPP would wield significant power in the global economic system and could play a future role in shielding its members from an intensifying US-China trade war.

    Limited alternatives

    None of the steps taken by the EU and its partners on the continent and elsewhere require the breakdown in the transatlantic relationship that the Trump administration appears keen to engineer. But speeches by both the US vice president, J.D. Vance, and the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, were clear that America’s relationship with Europe is changing.

    Washington, under its current leadership, increasingly leans towards the political forces in Europe that are opposed to the values on which the continent has been orientated since 1945. This leaves Europe few options but to seek more independence from the US.

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    A more independent Europe is unlikely to become a global superpower on par with the US or China. But it will be better able to hold its own in a geopolitical environment that is less based on rules and more on power.

    The EU currently enjoys historically high approval ratings among its citizens – who also support more unity and a more active role for the EU in protecting them from global security risks.

    It’s increasingly clear that EU leaders and their partners have a unique opportunity – and an obligation – to carve out a more secure and independent space in a hostile global environment.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Europe is moving to reposition itself in Donald Trump’s new global order – https://theconversation.com/europe-is-moving-to-reposition-itself-in-donald-trumps-new-global-order-255344

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bone broth is hyped by celebrities and hailed as a wellness superfood – here’s what the science says

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

    AB-7272/Shutterstock

    When someone tells you to “clean your plate”, bones usually aren’t included. But for some people, bones – or rather, what’s inside them – are the best part of a meal. Bone broth, once a humble kitchen staple, has surged in popularity in recent years, championed as a superfood by celebrities and wellness influencers.

    Stars such as Salma Hayek and Gwyneth Paltrow are reported to swear by it for beauty and health, while late basketball legend Kobe Bryant used it as a pre-game meal. But bone broth is far from a new discovery – it’s rooted in prehistoric cooking, traditional Chinese medicine and folk remedies around the world.

    So, what exactly is bone broth – and does it live up to the hype?

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    This nutrient-dense liquid, also known as stock, is made by simmering animal bones and connective tissues, such as cartilage and tendons, for 12 to 48 hours. This slow cooking process extracts nutrients such as collagen, amino acids and minerals into the liquid. The result is a rich, savoury broth that can be sipped on its own or used as a base for soups, sauces and stews.

    While store-bought bone broth is convenient, homemade versions offer better control over ingredients and often greater nutritional value. Typical ingredients include bones (from chicken, beef or fish), water, vinegar (to help extract minerals) and various herbs and vegetables for flavour.

    Skin benefits

    Bone broth is praised for its collagen content – the protein that forms connective tissue in skin, cartilage, tendons and bones. It’s thought to promote joint flexibility and reduce signs of skin ageing.

    Some studies show that hydrolysed collagen (a broken-down form that’s easier to absorb) may improve skin elasticity and hydration, and reduce wrinkles. Other research suggests it may ease joint pain and stiffness, especially in people with osteoarthritis.

    However, most of these studies focus on collagen supplements and, while it’s often marketed as a collagen-rich superfood, research shows that bone broths don’t contain enough collagen to match the effects seen in clinical studies on supplements. Instead, a balanced diet rich in protein, vitamin C and healthy fats is more reliably linked to collagen production.

    Big claims, little evidence

    Bone broth is a source of amino acids such as glutamine, glycine and arginine that are thought to support gut lining integrity and immune function. Glutamine, in particular, may help repair the intestinal wall and prevent “leaky gut” – a condition where toxins and bacteria pass through a weakened gut barrier, potentially causing inflammation.

    Some scientists even suggest links between gut health and conditions such as autism, ADHD, depression and schizophrenia – though this remains a controversial and under-researched area.

    Bone broth is low in calories but high in protein, making it filling and potentially helpful for weight management. It’s also hydrating, providing electrolytes including sodium, potassium and magnesium that are particularly useful during illness or recovery.

    Some evidence supports the idea that nutrients in bone broth, especially amino acids, can reduce inflammation and support immune function. But overall, there is limited human research on the direct benefits of drinking bone broth. There are, however, potential risks to consider before you add it to your diet.

    Heavy metal

    Because animal bones can accumulate heavy metals such as lead, simmering them for long periods may cause these metals to leach into the broth. While studies on this are mixed, the risk may depend on the source and quality of the bones used.

    Consuming bone broth with high levels of heavy metals can pose health risks, including minor ailments like headaches, vomiting and tiredness. But more dangerously, heavy metals can also cause organ damage in the long term.

    Research on toxic metals in bone broth shows mixed results. Since recipes differ, it’s hard to know the exact nutrition content of each broth. Many shop-bought bone broths contain high levels of sodium, which can raise blood pressure and strain the heart and kidneys. Check labels or make your own to control the salt content.

    Bone broth contains glutamate, a naturally occurring amino acid that may cause anxiety, restlessness or headaches in some people, though evidence for this is largely anecdotal.

    Improper storage or preparation of bone broth can lead to bacterial contamination, which can cause gut infections and symptoms such as vomiting and diarrhoea. Always refrigerate or freeze broth promptly, then reheat it thoroughly before consumption.

    Bone broth can be a nourishing, tasty addition to your diet, especially when made at home with high-quality ingredients. It’s hydrating, packed with protein and rich in flavour. But it’s not a miracle cure, and the health benefits may be more modest than advertised.

    If you’re looking to boost collagen, your best bet is a healthy, balanced diet. Focus on eating plenty of protein, whole grains, fruits and vegetables – all of which provide the nutrients your body needs to naturally produce collagen.

    In addition to what’s on your plate, healthy lifestyle habits also play a key role. Prioritise quality sleep (seven to nine hours a night), manage stress, avoid smoking and protect your skin with sunscreen.

    While bone broth may offer some benefits, the scientific evidence supporting its role in collagen production is still limited. Consider it a nourishing supplement to a healthy lifestyle, not a cure-all.

    Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bone broth is hyped by celebrities and hailed as a wellness superfood – here’s what the science says – https://theconversation.com/bone-broth-is-hyped-by-celebrities-and-hailed-as-a-wellness-superfood-heres-what-the-science-says-254520

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can a 10- or 15-minute workout really help you get fit? A sports scientist explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Scott, Senior Lecturer in Cinical Exercise Physiology, University of Portsmouth

    Even 15 minutes of cycling a day can improve cardiovascular health. Bohdan Malitskiy/ Shutterstock

    In today’s fast-paced world, finding time for exercise can be challenging. This probably explains why short workouts continue to be so popular. But can workouts of only 10 or 15 minutes really help you get fit? The answer, according to research, is a resounding yes. Short workouts can be very effective – offering numerous health benefits with just a small time commitment.

    Research has consistently demonstrated that short bursts of exercise can yield substantial health benefits. A study published in the European Heart Journal found that engaging in vigorous activity for just 15 minutes per week, broken into several short bouts – as little as two minutes of exercise per day – can significantly lower the risk of heart disease, cancer, and early death.

    Participants who accumulated these brief sessions throughout the week experienced an 18% lower risk of dying during the study period, a 40% lower risk of developing heart disease and a 16% drop in cancer risk. Vigorous-intensity activities (meaning they make you breathe harder and increase your heart rate) can include brisk walking, jogging, cycling, rowing, swimming and dancing.

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    Research has also consistently found that spreading one-minute bursts of vigorous-intensity activities throughout the course of the day is as effective as one continuous, 30-minute workout of moderate intensity or one 20-minute intense workout.

    This means that performing multiple “exercise snacks” can provide similar benefits to a longer workout – including improvements in blood pressure, cardiorespiratory health, blood fat, insulin and blood sugar levels. These findings suggest that short workouts can be a practical and efficient way to maintain overall health.

    Some examples of easy exercise snacks you can incorporate into your day include using the stairs instead of the lift, walking one or two bus stops away from where you usually get on and taking short, brisk walking breaks every hour or two while at the work.

    Making it count

    While short workouts have many advantages, there are some caveats to consider.

    It’s essential that these brief sessions are of at least moderate-to-vigorous intensity to maximise their benefits. This means that even after a short burst of activity, your heart will be beating more quickly, you’ll be breathing heavier and you’ll feel hot and sweaty.

    For exercise novices, lower intensity workouts can still be beneficial in the short term. But as you become more fit, simply performing light activities without challenging yourself further may not provide the same health improvements as more intense or longer exercise sessions.

    Moreover, while short workouts can be effective, they should be complemented by other forms of physical activity to meet the recommended activity guidelines. Adults should aim for at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic exercise or 75 minutes of vigorous-intensity aerobic exercise per week. They should also perform muscle-strengthening activities at least two days per week. Short workouts can contribute to these totals, but it’s crucial to ensure a balanced exercise routine.

    You should aim to do a mix of both cardio and strength training workouts each week.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/ Shutterstock

    Another consideration is the potential plateau effect that can happen with any physical activity programme. Research indicates that improvements in aerobic capacity may level off after a few weeks of exercise. Our body becomes used to our exercise routines. As such, we need to change things up in order to promote further progress. This means varying your exercise routine and incorporating longer or more intense sessions periodically.

    Where long workouts win

    While short workouts offer many benefits, there are certain types of fitness that require longer sessions.

    Endurance training, for example, often necessitates extended periods of exercise to improve high-intensity aerobic performance and cardiovascular health benefits. This is why activities such as long-distance running, cycling and swimming are typically performed over a longer duration. However, short, high-intensity exercise training can still be used alongside your usual, longer workouts to boost endurance benefits in a time-efficient way.

    Strength training also benefits from longer workouts. While short, intense sessions can improve muscle strength and power, longer workouts allow for more comprehensive training targeting different muscle groups and incorporating various exercises. This can lead to greater overall muscle development and strength gains.

    Additionally, flexibility and balance exercises, such as yoga and Pilates, can be added throughout the week to boost the results of your workouts. These activities focus on controlled movements and stretching, and can further improve these fitness components even in short sessions.

    Even still, short workouts can be a valuable addition to your fitness regimen – offering significant health benefits and flexibility for busy schedules. But it’s important to ensure these short workouts are at least moderately intense, and combined with other types of exercise throughout your week to achieve optimal results.

    Andrew Scott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can a 10- or 15-minute workout really help you get fit? A sports scientist explains – https://theconversation.com/can-a-10-or-15-minute-workout-really-help-you-get-fit-a-sports-scientist-explains-254415

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: VE Day: how personal first-hand accounts help keep everyday narratives of wartime Britain alive

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hazel Hall, Emeritus Professor in the School of Computing, Engineering, and Built Environment, Edinburgh Napier University

    From street parties to flypasts, the myriad events of VE Day – which this year commemorates the 80th anniversary of victory in Europe – take place against the backdrop of grand wartime narratives. These include accounts of military strategy, major battles and political decisions made by global leaders. Central to the day are the few remaining second world war veterans and the memory of those who lost their lives in the conflict between 1939 and 1945.

    While military and political history may dominate the retelling of VE Day, the research of my colleagues at Napier and myself has focused on a wartime commentary written by a young woman called Lorna Lloyd from Malvern, Worcestershire, between 1939 and 1941.

    Thursday December 12 1940

    It was a very bad night last night with guns firing endlessly and heavy bombs dropping in the (not so) distance. Cheltenham seems to have got it, and Birmingham. We hardly slept at all, for though the All Clear went at 1.40am, a new alert sounded at 4.00am, and the All Clear did not go until 20 to eight.

    Through our study we found that bringing the voices of ordinary people from the second world war directly into the present can forge strong emotional connections to the past, giving people a real appreciation of what it was like to live through the war in Britain. This material also prompts consideration of parallels between past and current hostilities.

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    Fearing a German invasion in May 1940, 26-year-old Lloyd wrote in her diary: “I shall bury this diary so deep that one day, in a saner world, someone may find it and know that the last legions of civilisation meant not dominion but good.”

    Whether or not today’s world is saner, our research with 12 interviewees familiar with two digitised versions of Lloyd’s wartime diary revealed that excerpts had a stronger emotional impact when packaged as audio in a podcast series than they did presented online as text and images.

    Using news reports from the time including broadcast excerpts from the BBC, Lloyd’s words composed at her middle-class home in the Midlands highlight that war is a very human experience that affects everyone.

    Her commentary offers insight into the devastating reach of the conflict on those far from the frontlines, with reflections that demonstrate the psychological toll of war and its impact on everyday life.

    December 31 1940

    London vanishes gradually. Now a slice is shorn away as on Sunday night, now inchmeal buildings are levelled and gaps torn in its ancient fabric. With each, something dies that was hallowed by generations of hope and endeavour, quiet monuments of ordinary strivings vanish into piles of rubble.

    They also shed light on the roots of post-war social transformation, from the formation of the National Health Service to the cautious outlook of the so-called “silent generation” who grew up amid rationing and uncertainty. In a time when peace can no longer be taken for granted, these personal perspectives reinforce the importance of diplomacy, and the need to avoid conflict in the future.

    June 3 1940

    There are times when I feel endlessly old, and worn out, and others when I feel hopelessly young, and completely unable to combat life, or to hope for any future. I know somehow, despite the frantic entry of May 15th, that we shall win in the end, but my spirit quails at the task of building up again what has been broken down. It took 22 years to arrive even in this country at anything like normality after the last war. When things have settled down again shall I be old?

    Although we anticipated that our participants would find the experience particularly affecting since they knew Lloyd was played in the podcast episodes by her 25-year-old great-great niece, an unexpected finding was that the emotional reaction was greater when the audience members recognised parallels between Lloyd’s reports of the early months of the war and the current war in Ukraine.

    They were struck by the echoes of Lloyd’s commentary on 1940s wartime Europe in present-day Ukraine. One interviewee said: “It’s so much harder [to listen]… because we are in a similar situation … If you changed the words slightly, it could [be] contemporary … If we made Germany Russia, and made Finland Ukraine … We are dealing with [accommodating displaced people] today.”

    This finding shows that examining history in this accessible way can lead to identifying parallels with the present. An advantage that we have today – and which was denied to Lorna Lloyd and her contemporaries – is that we have an example from history to warn us about the dangers of the current political climate in Europe.

    The political and economic pressures at the time in Weimar Germany paved the way for the rise of the Nazi party. And now, with the rise of the right wing in Europe and across the world once more, it is more important than ever to learn from the past.

    As so few living memories of the second world war remain today, VE Day gives us a chance to consider how we keep such “hidden” histories alive. Our research shows that digital storytelling such as podcasts give fresh resonance to archive material in an uncertain world. And it makes clear the enduring value of encouraging interaction with historical records to make sense of today’s wider social and political turbulence.

    The research cited here was funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council through the Creative Informatics programme. Hazel Hall acknowledges the contributions of her colleagues Bruce Ryan, Marianne Wilson, and Iain McGregor to this article.

    – ref. VE Day: how personal first-hand accounts help keep everyday narratives of wartime Britain alive – https://theconversation.com/ve-day-how-personal-first-hand-accounts-help-keep-everyday-narratives-of-wartime-britain-alive-255653

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why south-east Asia must lead the fight against neglected tropical diseases

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tuck Seng Wong, Professor of Biomanufacturing, School of Chemical, Materials and Biological Engineering, University of Sheffield

    Village health Volunteers in Thailand survey mosquito breeding sites as part of dengue prevention campaign Deere Kumphaitoon/Shutterstock

    Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a persistent public health threat, and tackling them is not just a moral obligation, but a smart investment.

    NTDs are a group of infectious diseases that mainly affect poor people in tropical and subtropical regions. These diseases are called “neglected” because they have received less attention and fewer resources than other major health issues, despite affecting over a billion people worldwide.

    NTDs disproportionately affect the poorest communities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where they lock people in cycles of poverty by hindering physical and cognitive development, reducing school attendance and limiting economic productivity.

    Wealthier nations experience far lower rates of these diseases. Yet it’s in LMICs that cost-effective interventions like improved water, sanitation, hygiene and vector control – methods used to limit or eliminate insects that spread diseases to humans – can deliver the greatest return. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), every dollar invested in controlling and eliminating NTDs can yield up to US$25 (£19) in economic and health benefits, through lower healthcare costs, increased productivity and improved education outcomes.

    While vaccines are one of the most powerful tools for disease prevention, there are still no vaccines for most NTD. Progress has been slow, largely due to fragmented funding and limited investment in research. This gap continues to leave millions vulnerable.

    To address this, we helped establish the UK–South East Asia Vaccine Manufacturing Research Hub (UK-SEA Vax Hub) in 2023 to reduce the burden of infectious diseases in LMICs, with a special focus on south-east Asia. Its mission is to strengthen regional capacity in vaccine research, development and manufacturing. Dengue and rabies – both persistent NTDs – are among its priorities.

    The urgency of this work is underscored by the growing threat of dengue. Between 2015 and 2019, dengue cases rose by 46% in south-east Asia. Countries like Indonesia, Myanmar and Thailand are among the most affected globally. This region accounts for more than half of the world’s dengue cases.

    Dengue is hard to diagnose. Its symptoms – fever, rash and joint pain – overlap with other illnesses like chikungunya, Zika, malaria and typhoid. Misdiagnoses are common and no specific antiviral treatment exists.

    While vaccines are available, their use is limited by strict eligibility criteria based on age, infection history and local disease patterns. This leaves many people without protection.

    What’s urgently needed are more effective, affordable and widely accessible vaccines. But vaccines alone won’t solve the problem. Combatting dengue and other NTDs requires an integrated strategy, particularly in poor countries with limited health infrastructure.

    To stop the spread of diseases like dengue, it’s not enough to just treat people or use vaccines. You also need to control the insects that carry and spread the disease – in this case, mosquitoes.

    That includes actions like removing standing water where mosquitoes breed, using insecticides, or installing window screens and bed nets. These steps are essential to reducing infection rates and protecting communities. These interventions, driven by local action, are just as essential as biomedical advances. Together, they build a more sustainable and resilient defence against mosquito-borne diseases.

    For decades, public health initiatives in low-income countries were largely funded by wealthy countries – through development aid, international donors and philanthropic foundations. But with shifting global priorities and tightening budgets, it’s increasingly clear that this model is no longer sustainable.

    Long-term health security must be led from within. That means a shift in mindset. Low-income countries must see themselves not just as aid recipients, but as innovators, implementers and investors in their own health futures.

    This transition is already underway. The UK-SEA Vax Hub has evolved beyond its original research remit. By embedding its work within the broader regional health agenda, the hub is promoting government ownership and regional collaboration: critical steps in building stronger, more self-reliant health systems.

    While progress is promising, major challenges remain. One of the most pressing is the need to develop a new generation of public health leaders across south-east Asia – people who can lead research and development, champion vaccine production and help shape policy based on local needs. These leaders will be essential for ensuring that south-east Asia becomes not just a regional health player, but a global one.

    Another key challenge is regulatory. In a diverse region like south-east Asia, varying national policies can slow innovation and emergency responses. Streamlining and harmonising these systems is essential for responding quickly and effectively during future outbreaks or pandemics.

    South-east Asia has the potential to become a global hub for vaccine manufacturing. The region benefits from growing scientific and industrial capacity, relative political stability and a shared interest in tackling shared health threats. It also has a strong case to lead the fight against NTDs, which continue to disproportionately affect its populations.

    South-east Asia stands at a critical juncture. With strategic investment, regional leadership and cross-border collaboration, the region can protect its people, drive innovation and shape the future of global health.

    The fight against NTDs is more than a public health challenge – it’s a chance for south-east Asia to lead by example and redefine its role on the world stage.

    Tuck Seng Wong receives funding from the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) for the UK-SEA Vax Hub.

    Kang Lan Tee receives funding from the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) for the UK-SEA Vax Hub.

    – ref. Why south-east Asia must lead the fight against neglected tropical diseases – https://theconversation.com/why-south-east-asia-must-lead-the-fight-against-neglected-tropical-diseases-255640

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Addiction isn’t just about brain chemistry – but nor is it just bad choices

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matt Field, Professor of Psychology, University of Sheffield

    monticello/Shutterstock

    Consider someone addicted to alcohol, drugs, or a behaviour like gambling. Why do they continue, even when they say they want to stop? It’s a question that highlights a fundamental disconnect: the gap between intention and action.

    This apparent contradiction aligns with clinical definitions of addiction and with brain disease models, which suggest that repeated substance use changes brain function, making drug use compulsive and automatic, bypassing conscious decision-making. These brain adaptations help explain why addiction is so hard to overcome.

    But there’s another important piece to the puzzle. People often use substances for reasons that make sense to them – to feel good, to relieve stress, or to connect socially. These motivations don’t disappear just because a substance becomes harmful.

    Yet, over the past few decades, this insight has been sidelined in addiction science. Some critics have jumped on this gap to argue, reductively, that addiction is simply about people choosing pleasure: nothing more than “people take drugs because they enjoy it.”

    Both the brain disease model and the “just say no” view contain partial truths. But both, on their own, are fundamentally flawed.

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    The brain disease model gained popularity in part because it seemed to offer two things: a foundation for developing new medical treatments and a way to reduce stigma. But it’s largely failed on both fronts. Despite billions invested in neuroscience, few new medications have emerged.

    Meanwhile, the most effective treatments remain psychosocial: talking therapies and harm-reduction strategies that have been around for decades. Worse, describing addiction as a chronic brain disease may increase stigma and pessimism, making recovery seem unlikely or out of reach.

    Additionally, research shows that addiction is not entirely beyond voluntary control. People with addiction can and do reduce or stop their drug use in response to its consequences. This can be related to meaningful life changes — such as getting married, having children, or starting a new job — which may increase the costs or reduce the perceived benefits of continued use.

    These findings challenge the view that addiction is purely compulsive, highlighting that people retain a degree of agency, even under difficult circumstances.

    At the same time, these observations don’t justify the cynical view that addiction is just hedonism or bad choices. A more accurate, and more helpful, framework considers how people make decisions and how their environment shapes the value of different choice options.

    Neuroeconomics

    This is where insights from neuroeconomics – the study of how the brain makes value-based decisions – become useful. For example, one study found that when people are hungry, they pay more attention to how food tastes and less to how healthy it is, making unhealthy choices more likely.

    Similarly, alcohol users who were craving alcohol and in a negative mood were shown to value alcohol more than food, shifting their choices accordingly. Other research has found that the set of available alternatives strongly influences how appealing (or not) a choice options becomes. As applied to addiction, when healthier or more rewarding options are limited, the relative value of drugs increases.

    This suggests that addiction is less about losing the ability to choose and more about how context shapes choice. When someone is in treatment, they may genuinely want to stop using because the environment emphasises recovery, support and future goals. But once they return to a setting where drugs are easy to access and attractive alternatives are few, the relative value of drug use increases – and relapse becomes more likely.

    This perspective also helps reconcile the role of brain changes in addiction. Neuroadaptations still matter: they can heighten cravings or make rewards harder to experience – but they don’t eliminate the ability to choose. Instead, these brain changes interact with a person’s environment to make certain choices more likely than others.

    Crucially, this view also highlights why poverty is such a powerful driver of addiction. In deprived settings, alcohol, drugs and gambling outlets are often more accessible, while opportunities for meaningful alternatives – employment, education, stable housing – are scarce. These are deep-rooted structural issues, and they’re not easily fixed. But they matter.

    On a more hopeful note, this model points to new pathways out of addiction. Rather than blaming individuals or pathologising them as brain-damaged, we can focus on reshaping environments to make non-drug alternatives more visible, available and valuable. This approach carries less stigma and more optimism: it views people not as broken, but as people who can make decisions and respond rationally to difficult situations.

    Yes, the psychology of decision-making makes addiction tough to overcome. But by understanding how people weigh their options, and by improving the appeal and accessibility of alternatives to substance use, we can support real, lasting change.

    Matt Field receives research funding from the Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Alcohol Change UK, and the Academic Forum for the Study of Gambling. He is a trustee of the Society for the Study of Addiction.

    – ref. Addiction isn’t just about brain chemistry – but nor is it just bad choices – https://theconversation.com/addiction-isnt-just-about-brain-chemistry-but-nor-is-it-just-bad-choices-255181

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bronze-age Britain traded tin with the Mediterranean, shows new study – settling a two-century debate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Benjamin Roberts, Associate Professor in Later European Prehistory, Durham University

    Bronze age tin ingot from Salcombe, England. Benjamin Roberts / Alan Williams

    Tin was the critical mineral of the ancient world. It was essential to alloy with copper to make bronze, which for many centuries was the preferred metal for tools and weapons. Yet sources of tin are very scarce – and were especially so for the rapidly growing bronze age towns, cities and states around the eastern Mediterranean.

    Though major tin deposits are found in western and central Europe and in central Asia, by far the richest and most accessible tin ores are in Cornwall and Devon in southwest Britain. Yet it has been difficult to prove that these British deposits were used as a source for people in the eastern Mediterranean. So for more than two centuries, archaeologists have debated about where bronze age societies obtained their tin.

    In a new study published in the journal Antiquity, our team analysed the chemistry and different forms of particular elements in tin ores and artefacts from across Britain and Europe. These included tin ingots found at prehistoric shipwreck sites at Salcombe and Erme, southwest Britain, as well as in the Mediterranean.

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    This revealed that tin ingots from three ancient shipwrecks discovered off the coast of Israel and one shipwreck found off the Mediterranean coast of France originated in southwest Britain. The shipwrecks found near Israel date to around 1300BC, while the wreck from France has been dated to around 600BC.

    Small farming communities across Cornwall and Devon would have dug, washed, crushed and smelted the abundant tin ore from the alluvial deposits in the region. The heavy sand to gravel-sized tin ore is in a layer buried under soft layers of barren silt, sand and gravel.

    The tin ore is eroded from hard rock mineral veins and deposited by streams and rivers. There was simply no need for any complex and difficult mining of hard rock here. The tin would then have been taken to coastal locations where it could be traded.

    It’s probable that the tin was then moved by traders through France to the Mediterranean coast, where it was loaded onto ships. It would make its way through flourishing trade networks between the islands of Sardinia and Cyprus before reaching markets in the east Mediterranean. The tin’s value would have increased immensely as it progressed along this 2,485 mile (4,000km) journey.

    Tin is the first commodity to have been exported across the entire European continent. It was produced and traded at a potentially vast scale, but is rarely found in archaeological sites due to corrosion. But what we do known is that by 1,300BC, virtually all of Europe and the Mediterranean had widespread and consistent access to bronze.

    We know of more than 100 bronze age copper mines from Ireland to Israel and from Spain to the southern Urals in Russia. Yet these would have been just a small proportion of the copper mines active at the time.

    Given that bronze was typically made from 90% copper and 10% tin, if the copper produced by each of these known mines had to be matched by 10% tin, then tens or even hundreds of tonnes of tin were being traded each year – perhaps across distances of thousands of miles.

    St Michael’s Mount may be the site of the ancient island Ictis.
    Alan Williams

    The volume, consistency and frequency of the estimated scale in the tin trade is far larger than has been previously imagined and requires an entirely new perspective on what bronze age miners and merchants were able to achieve. It is no coincidence that it is around 1,300BC that technologies from the east, such as sophisticated systems for weighing items, as well as bronze swords, reached small farming communities living on the Atlantic coasts.

    A millennium later, around 320BC, Pytheas the Greek, from Massalia (modern Marseilles), journeyed by land and sea to Britain, which was at the edge of the known world at the time. Pytheas wrote the earliest account describing the island and its inhabitants in a book which is now lost, but which has partially survived in snippets quoted by later classical authors.

    Pytheas described how tin in southwest Britain was extracted and traded off a tidal island he called Ictis, before being taken across the sea and down the rivers of France to the mouth of the Rhone in only 30 days. In our research, we provide the first direct evidence for the tin trade Pytheas described. We show that tin from the Rochelongue shipwreck, off the south coast of France and dating to around 600BC, came from southwest Britain.

    While we can establish the movement of tin across the seas, we know very little about the markets on land in which it was traded. We are now working with a team of archaeologists from Cornwall to excavate on the tidal island of St Michael’s Mount, which has long thought to have been the island of Ictis described by Pytheas.

    A pan-continental tin trade continued in all periods after the bronze age and, in the absence of written records, our approach, using different methods of analysis, allows us to determine whether the tin came from Britain.

    Historical records show that during the medieval period, tin from Cornwall and Devon enjoyed a virtual European monopoly, with production continuing until the last tin mine closed in 1998.

    Today, tin is once again a critical and strategic mineral, this time for use in the electronics industry. As such it forms a vital part of the tools and weapons of the 21st century. Cornwall’s tin production is also set to soon restart, reviving a 4,000 year old industry.

    Benjamin Roberts was PI on Project Ancient Tin which was funded by the Leverhulme Trust (Grant RPG-2019-333).

    Alan Williams was the post doc on Project Ancient Tin which was funded by the Leverhulme Trust (Grant RPG-2019-333).

    – ref. Bronze-age Britain traded tin with the Mediterranean, shows new study – settling a two-century debate – https://theconversation.com/bronze-age-britain-traded-tin-with-the-mediterranean-shows-new-study-settling-a-two-century-debate-256005

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A promising new approach to treating potentially deadly liver disease

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maria Teresa Borrello, Lecturer, University of Sunderland

    Jo Panuwat D/Shutterstock

    An experimental new treatment is showing early promise in the fight against liver fibrosis – a serious and often silent condition that affects around 2 million people in the UK.

    Liver fibrosis happens when the liver becomes damaged – often due to long-term issues like alcohol use, obesity or chronic infections – and starts to develop scar tissue. Over time, that scarring can get worse and lead to serious complications such as liver failure or cancer.

    The problem is that most people don’t know they have it until the damage is advanced. And there are no approved drugs to stop or reverse the scarring process.

    In a recent study, my colleagues and I found that blocking an enzyme called HDAC6 with new drugs could help reduce liver scarring in people with liver fibrosis.

    This discovery could form the basis of future treatments and offer hope for those living with chronic liver conditions.

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    Fibrosis occurs when the liver responds to injury by producing too much of the material that normally helps repair tissue, known as the “extracellular matrix”. Over time, this repair process can become unbalanced, leading to a buildup of scar tissue.

    A key part of this process involves hepatic stellate cells. When the liver is injured, these normally inactive cells become activated and turn into scar-producing cells that drive fibrosis.

    HDAC6 helps control how cells respond to stress and inflammation and how they move and organise themselves. Our recent research suggests it also plays an important role in turning on the liver cells that cause scarring after injury. That’s why we’re exploring HDAC6 as a potential target for new treatments that could help prevent or even reverse liver fibrosis.

    In our lab, we developed two new drugs specifically designed to block HDAC6 activity.

    Liver fibrosis explained.

    Liver slices

    To see if these compounds could be useful as treatments, we tested them on precision-cut slices of human liver tissue at Newcastle University. This model keeps the liver’s natural 3D structure and mix of cells, making it a valuable way to study how diseases develop and how drugs might work.

    Our results were striking. Treating the liver slices with HDAC6 inhibitors greatly reduced signs of fibrosis, showing that these compounds can stop – and possibly even reverse – the scarring process at the cellular level.

    The inhibitors showed very little toxicity, suggesting they could be safe for further development.

    This research is a step forward in finding a treatment for liver fibrosis. Unlike previous treatments that targeted broad mechanisms or caused side-effects, our HDAC6 inhibitors provide a more targeted approach. By focusing on a key cause of fibrosis, we may be able to stop the disease before it reaches irreversible stages.

    The implications are enormous. Liver disease is responsible for around 4% of premature deaths globally, and the burden is rising in line with alcohol misuse, obesity, and the use of multiple medications (known as “polypharmacy”). A targeted therapy that interrupts fibrosis at its root could change the lives of tens of thousands of patients annually – not only in the UK but around the world.

    While these early findings are encouraging, more work is needed before HDAC6 inhibitors can be tested in humans.

    Our next steps include refining the experimental drugs, testing their effects in lab animals, and looking at how they might work alongside existing treatments.

    As researchers and healthcare professionals seek new ways to tackle chronic diseases, targeted approaches like this one could redefine how we treat conditions once considered untreatable. For patients with liver fibrosis, this new knowledge could mean a longer, healthier life for millions of people with liver fibrosis.

    Maria Teresa Borrello does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A promising new approach to treating potentially deadly liver disease – https://theconversation.com/a-promising-new-approach-to-treating-potentially-deadly-liver-disease-253924

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why are India and Pakistan on the brink of war and how dangerous is the situation? An expert explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex

    India has launched military strikes against a number of sites in Pakistan and Pakistan’s side of the disputed region of Kashmir, reportedly killing 26 people and injuring dozens more. India claimed the attacks were on terrorist infrastructure, but Pakistan denied this, and said these were civilians.

    India says another ten people on the Indian side of the Kashmir region have been killed by shelling from Pakistan in the same period.

    The exchange comes two weeks after a terrorist attack in Kashmir killed 26 people. The group Resistance Front (TRF), which India argues is a proxy for the Pakistani-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack.

    India claimed that Pakistan had indirectly supported the terrorist attack, but Pakistan vehemently denies this.

    The escalating conflict between two of the world’s major military powers has the potential to destablise Asia and beyond. Already, many countries around the world, including the UK, France and Russia, have made public their concerns about what happens next.

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    How do India and Pakistan’s militaries compare?

    India is ranked as one of the world’s top five military nations by Military Watch magazine and Pakistan is ranked ninth. Both countries have nuclear weapons.

    Overall, India is considered to have the military edge with a bigger and more modern military force, while Pakistan has a smaller and more agile force that has been primarily focused on defensive and covert activities.

    While neither country has used nuclear weapons in a conflict, there are always concerns that this norm may be broken. Both countries are nuclear powers with India holding 180 nuclear warheads, and Pakistan possessing about 170.

    Though India has a “no first use” policy, which it claims means the country would never use nuclear weapons first, there have been signs it is reconsidering this policy since 2019.

    Pakistan has never declared a no first use policy and argues that tactical nuclear weapons are important to countering India’s larger conventional forces.

    Details of Indian air strikes.

    The concern is that even if a small nuclear exchange were to take place between the two countries, it could kill up to 20 million people in a matter of days.

    Why are the countries fighting over Kashmir?

    Kashmir has been a source of tension and conflict even before India and Pakistan gained independence from the British empire in 1947. Originally the Muslim-majority Kashmir was free to accede to either India or Pakistan.

    While the local ruler (maharaja), Hari Singh, originally wanted Kashmir to be independent, he eventually sided with India, leading to a conflict in 1947. This resulted in a UN-mediated ceasefire in 1949 and agreement that Kashmir would be controlled partly by Pakistan and partly by India, splitl along what’s known as the Line of Surveillance (or Line of Control).

    As Kashmir is rich in minerals such as borax, sapphire, graphite, marble, gypsum and lithium, the region is strategically important. It is also culturally and historically important to both Pakistan and India.



    Read more:
    India and Pakistan tension escalates with suspension of historic water treaty

    Due to the region’s significance and disagreement over sovereignty, multiple conflicts have taken place over Kashmir, with wars erupting in 1965 and 1999. Tensions were renewed in 2016, after 19 Indian soldiers were killed in Uri, on the Indian side of Kashmir. India responded by launching “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control, targeting alleged militant bases.

    Then in 2019, a bombing in Pulwama (again part of the Indian-administered Kashmir) that killed more than 40 Indian paramilitary personnel led to Indian airstrikes in Balakot which borders Kashmir. This was the first action inside Pakistan since the Indian-Pakistani conflict in 1971 and again led to retaliatory raids from Pakistan and a brief aerial conflict.

    A map of the Kashmir region.
    CIA, CC BY

    These past conflicts never intensified further in part because India applied a massive diplomatic pressure campaign on the US, the UK and Pakistan, warning against escalation, while Pakistan showed a willingness to back down. Both sides as nuclear powers (India gained nuclear weapons in 1974 and Pakistan in 1998) had an understanding that escalating to full-scale war would be incredibly risky.

    What will happen next?

    The question is whether or not cooler heads will prevail this time. The strikes by India, part of Operation Sinhoor, were met with mass approval across many political lines in India, with both the ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and the opposition Congress party voicing their support for the operation.

    This helps Modi gain more backing, at a time when his popularity has been falling. Modi and the BJP suffered a shocking result in the 2024 election, losing 63 seats out of 543 seats and falling short of a majority in the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament).

    Under Modi, India has been rapidly becoming more autocratic, another source of concern as such countries are more likely to take risks when it comes to conflict. As power becomes increasingly personalised and dissent is repressed, would-be autocrats may be more likely to take on bold moves to garner more public and elite support.

    Pakistan may also have reason to respond with more force to India’s recent attack than in the past. Pakistan’s powerful military has often stoked fears of a conflict with India to justify its enormous military budget. Regardless of the outcome, it needs a success to sell to its domestic audience.

    Pakistan has been de facto led by its military for decades, which also makes it more likely to engage in conflict. In spite of intervals of civilian rule, the military has always held a lot of power, and in contrast to India (where there is a wider role for a civilian minister of defence), the Pakistani military has more influence over nuclear and security policy.

    Both military regimes and multi-party autocracies may see conflict as a way of gaining legitimacy, particularly if both regimes think their political support is unravelling.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences. Join The Conversation for free today.

    This most recent escalation is also significant because it is the first time in the Kashmir conflict that India has struck at Punjab, considered the heart of Pakistan. Pakistan will face internal pressure to respond, settle the score and restore deterrence.

    Both sides have been resolute in not losing an inch of territory. The question is how quickly diplomatic pressure can work. Neither India nor Pakistan are engaged in security dialogue, and there is no bilateral crisis management mechanisms in place.

    Further complicating matters is that the US’s role as a crisis manager in south Asia has diminished. Under Donald Trump, Washington cannot be counted on. This all makes deescalating this conflict much more difficult.

    Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why are India and Pakistan on the brink of war and how dangerous is the situation? An expert explains – https://theconversation.com/why-are-india-and-pakistan-on-the-brink-of-war-and-how-dangerous-is-the-situation-an-expert-explains-256125

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is worsening gender-based violence against women

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Annie Bunting, Professor of Law & Society, York University, York Research Chair in International Gender Justice & Peacebuilding, York University, Canada

    In early 2025, the March 23 Movement (M23) armed group seized control of Goma and then Bukavu, two major cities in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

    M23’s advance and control in eastern DRC, in defiance of ceasefire agreements, has terrorized communities and led to mass displacement. More than two million people have since been internally displaced in eastern DRC; close to one million people were displaced in 2024 alone.



    Read more:
    M23’s capture of Goma is the latest chapter in eastern Congo’s long-running war

    Civilians are caught in a devastating humanitarian crisis involving sexual and gender-based violence. This kind of violence not only contributes to forced displacement, but displaced women are also more at risk of gender-based violence during times of ongoing fighting.

    Furthermore, signs point to gendered violence worsening: in just the last two weeks of February 2025, UNHCR reported 895 reports of humanitarian workers being raped. Previous research has shown that sexual and gender-based violence continues through periods of political transition, and
    worsens     when state militaries are weaker than rebel forces.

    The risks and drivers of displacement

    To understand these risks, in December 2024 researchers with the Congolese organization Solidarité Féminine Pour La Paix et le Développement Intégral (SOFEPADI) interviewed 89 displaced women and 30 members of civil society organizations working in internally displaced person camps around Goma.

    We worked with a team of researchers from SOFEPADI, co-ordinated by SOFEPADI program officer Martin Baguma and national co-ordinator Sandrine Lusamba, and with research assistance from Cora Fletcher, a master’s student at Dalhousie University, to put together our recently published report that outlines some of the key findings from the interviews.

    The overwhelming majority of respondents had experienced or witnessed sexual and gender-based violence. While interviewers were careful to avoid direct questions so as not to induce trauma, dozens of women nonetheless disclosed personal experiences.

    These interviews show just how vulnerable the population is, and how an already dire situation for women and girls has been made exponentially worse over the past six months.

    Displaced women were extremely likely to have experienced conflict-related sexual and gender-based violence: 97 per cent of those interviewed were victims of or had witnessed violence during the conflict, with one stating that sexual violence had contributed to their displacement:

    “I was living in Kitshanga and then the war started, but I didn’t leave right away. One day I went to the field and I was raped. That’s the day I left Kitshanga and I came here [to the camp].”

    Over 70 per cent of interviewees identified M23 as the direct cause of their displacement. A further five per cent indicated that their displacement had been caused by Rwanda’s armed forces, either alone or in conjunction with M23.

    One woman from Kitshanga, a town roughly 150 kilometres away from Goma, stated that she had been displaced following “massacres, rapes, and the war…caused by the M23.”

    Perpetrators everywhere, protection nowhere

    M23 troops were not the only group identified as being responsible for perpetrating sexual and gender-based violence during displacement and in the camps. The crisis has led to widespread gender violence perpetrated by armed groups and forces, including the Congolese military and military-allied militias, civilians and groups of bandits.

    The breadth of perpetrators, challenges in identifying perpetrators, and the shifting status of civilians/ militia members all impact opportunities to hold individuals accountable and to meaningfully prevent sexual and gender-based violence through targeted initiatives.

    Despite the significant number of international forces operating in eastern DRC, both civil society representatives and displaced women expressed little confidence in these forces’ ability to prevent sexual and gender-based violence.

    Goma remains the operational centre of the United Nations MONUSCO peacekeeping mission. Yet, of the 89 displaced women interviewed, only one identified MONUSCO troops as providing security in the areas surrounding the camps. In the eyes of most of the respondents, international forces are simply absent.

    Scattered survivors and thwarted justice

    Since the M23 takeover, international attention has been drawn to the crisis, and there is renewed focus by the International Criminal Court on combatting impunity and securing accountability for atrocity crimes.

    Organizations on the ground, however, remain under-resourced and over-stretched. Access to healthcare (including mental health support), banking, economic support, children’s education, and justice are all severely constrained – a point consistently emphasized by affected women interviewed.

    Repeated displacement of vulnerable people, including survivors of sexual and gender-based violence, is likely to further frustrate attempts at holding responsible actors to account, has made it near-impossible to track where women are going, to provide necessary and ongoing support.

    With the recent order from M23 for civilians to leave IDP camps, already uprooted women are displaced once again, with little access to humanitarian aid. Civilians have been dispersed, with many unable to return to their villages due to fighting.

    Others have returned to find their homes have been burned or looted and there is tension between neighbours over access to land and resources. Human rights defenders are also at grave risk of violence, with mass prison breaks and legal institutions not functioning.

    The need for action

    The DRC government and M23 have reportedly resumed peace talks to end the fighting. The security situation in eastern DRC is shifting rapidly, and the context that these interviews took place in only three short months ago has changed. The airport in Goma remains closed, thwarting the flow of humanitarian aid. What remains consistent are high levels of forced displacement, sexual and gender-based violence and an internationalized conflict that has worsened women’s security.

    With women and girls uniquely and disproportionately impacted, responses to this dire security situation must include and urgent and durable ceasefire and increased humanitarian support.

    Women must be at peace talks. Immediate steps must be taken to alleviate humanitarian suffering, to protect women and girls from further violence and abuse, and to move toward a peaceful resolution that results in Congolese civilians able to return to their homes and begin the process of recovering from this devastating conflict.

    Annie Bunting receives funding from the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme, funded by the UK Department for International Development.

    Heather Tasker receives funding from the UK International Development through the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme.

    – ref. Fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is worsening gender-based violence against women – https://theconversation.com/fighting-in-eastern-democratic-republic-of-congo-is-worsening-gender-based-violence-against-women-255374

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Culture wars, political polarization and deepening inequality: the roots of Trumpism

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Spécialiste de la politique américaine, Sciences Po

    More than 100 days into his return to the White House, the conclusion is stark: Donald Trump is no longer the same president he was during his first term. His familiar nationalist and populist rhetoric is now openly paired with an authoritarian turn – one without precedent in US history. He has adopted a neo-imperial view of the economy, treating the global order as a zero-sum contest of winners and losers. In this worldview, cooperation gives way to domination: what matters is power and the accumulation of wealth.

    Having withstood two impeachment procedures, numerous lawsuits and at least one assassination attempt, Trump now governs with what can appear to be unchecked authority. To his followers, he has become a hero, a martyr – almost a messianic figure. He no longer sees democracy as a framework to be honoured, but as a tool to legitimize his hold on power. His decisive electoral victory now serves as a mandate to cast aside institutional limits.


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    Three key features define his style of governance: a radical centralization of executive power grounded in the theory of the “unitary executive”; the politicization of the Department of Justice, used as a weapon against rivals; and the manipulation of federal authority to target cultural, media and educational institutions. His playbook is chaos: unsettle opponents, dominate the media narrative and blur the boundaries of democratic norms. Impulsive and reactionary, Trump often governs in response to Fox News segments or trending posts on Truth Social. Instability has become a strategic tool.

    But Trump is not a historical anomaly. While his 2016 victory may have seemed unlikely, his re-election reflects a deeper, long-term transformation rooted in the post-Cold War era.

    From an external to an internal enemy

    The collapse of the USSR – a structuring external enemy – redirected political confrontation toward the designation of an internal enemy. The culture war has become the dominant ideological battleground, driven by two closely linked forces. On one side, a religious radicalization led by nationalist Christian movements – such as the New Apostolic Reformation – seeks to roll back social progress and promote the vision of an outright theocracy. On the other, growing racial anxiety is fueled by fears of white demographic decline and resistance to civil rights gains.

    The commentator Pat Buchanan saw it coming as early as the 1990s. Speaking at the 1992 Republican National Convention, he warned: “There is a cultural war going on for the soul of America… as critical as the Cold War itself.” Too radical for his time, Buchanan championed a white, Christian, conservative US hostile to cosmopolitan elites. Though marginalized then, his ideas laid the groundwork for what would become Trumpism.

    Newt Gingrich, who served as Speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999, played a pivotal role in reshaping both the Republican party and US politics. A Republican group he chaired famously distributed a pamphlet to Republican candidates titled “Language: A Key Mechanism of Control”, advising them to use uplifting language to describe themselves, and inflammatory terms like “corrupt”, “immoral” and “traitor” to describe their opponents. This aggressive rhetoric redefined political rivals as enemies to be defeated – helping pave the way for a right-wing politics in which winning trumps democratic norms.

    At the same time, the rise of a new conservative media ecosystem intensified polarization. The launch of Fox News in 1996, the growth of right-wing talk radio shows like Rush Limbaugh’s and the later explosion of social media gave the US right powerful tools to shape and radicalize public opinion. Today, algorithm-driven information bubbles trap citizens in alternate realities, where misinformation and outrage drown out reasoned debate. This has deepened polarization and fractured society as a whole.

    Channeling anger

    This ideological and media realignment has unfolded alongside a broader crisis: the unraveling of the post-Cold War neoliberal consensus. Promises of shared prosperity have been replaced by deindustrialization, deepening inequality and widespread resentment. Successive traumas – from 9/11 and the 2008 financial crash to the Covid-19 pandemic – and foreign wars without real victories have eroded public trust in the establishment.

    Trump channels this anger. He offers a vision of a restored and idealized America, a rollback of recent social gains, and a reassertion of national identity grounded in religion and race. His populism is not a coherent ideology but an emotional response – born of perceived injustice, humiliation and loss.

    Trump is more than a symptom of America’s democratic crisis: he is its most vivid manifestation. He embodies the legacy of the 1990s – a foundational decade of identity grievance, culture wars and media deregulation. Viewed as a political outsider, he has never been judged as a traditional politician, but rather embraced, by some, as the archetypal “self-made man” – a successful businessman and reality TV celebrity.

    His rhetoric – transgressive, provocative and often cruel – gives voice to what had been repressed. The humiliation of opponents becomes part of the performance. For his supporters, it’s exhilarating. It breaks taboos, flouts political correctness and feeds the fantasy of reclaiming a lost America.

    And he’s no longer alone. With the vocal support of economic and tech elites like Elon Musk – now a central figure in the radicalized right on X – Trumpism has entered a new phase. Together, they’ve outlined a new kind of authoritarian, cultural and digital power, where influence matters more than institutions.

    The US re-elected not just a man, but a style, an era and a worldview built on dominance, disruption and disdain for rules. Still, history is unwritten: intoxicated by hubris and undermined by incompetence, Trumpism may yet crash into the wall of reality – with consequences far beyond America’s borders.

    Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Culture wars, political polarization and deepening inequality: the roots of Trumpism – https://theconversation.com/culture-wars-political-polarization-and-deepening-inequality-the-roots-of-trumpism-255778

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK government wants to expand the sugar tax to milkshakes and plant-based drinks – here’s what you need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David M. Evans, Professor of Sociotechnical Futures, University of Bristol Business School, University of Bristol

    Luis Molinero/Shutterstock

    The UK government is considering expanding its sugar tax on fizzy drinks to include milkshakes and other sweetened beverages, as part of new proposals announced in April 2025. The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), to give it its official name, was introduced in 2018 to reduce people’s sugar intake and help tackle obesity. For soft drinks containing 5-8g of sugar per 100ml, a levy of 18p per litre is applied. This rises to 24p per litre for soft drinks containing over 8g per 100ml.

    The Treasury confirmed it plans to move forward not only with broadening the tax but also with lowering the sugar threshold that triggers it from 5g to 4g of sugar per 100ml. The changes, dubbed by critics as the “milkshake tax”, would end the current exemption for dairy-based drinks, as well as plant-based alternatives such as oat and rice milk.

    Based on our research into dietary change, conducted as part of the H3 project on food system transformation, we see this as a welcome and timely development.

    Not everyone shares this optimism. Opponents of what they see as “nanny state” interventionist policies argue that the SDIL has failed to deliver any real improvements to public health. In a UK newspaper’s straw poll, for example, 88% of respondents claimed the sugar tax has not significantly reduced obesity rates. Shadow Chancellor Melvyn Stride described the proposed expansion as a “sucker punch” to households, particularly given the ongoing cost of living crisis.

    Scepticism around these proposals is not surprising. Many people, regardless of political affiliation, are wary of additional taxation. And indeed, there is evidence suggesting that fiscal tools such as taxes and subsidies can be blunt instruments. They are also often regressive, placing a disproportionate burden on lower-income households.

    These concerns are valid – but they don’t quite apply to the SDIL.

    Crucially, the SDIL is not a tax on consumers. It is levied on manufacturers and importers, who are incentivised to reduce the sugar content of their products to avoid the charge. Many have done exactly that. For instance, the Japanese multinational brewing and distilling company group Suntory invested £13 million in reformulating drinks like Ribena and Lucozade, removing 25,000 tonnes of sugar, making the products exempt from the levy.

    According to Treasury figures, since the introduction of the SDIL, 89% of fizzy drinks sold in the UK have been reformulated to fall below the taxable threshold. This means households aren’t priced out of buying soft drinks – they can simply choose reformulated and presumably cheaper versions.

    It’s true that the UK is still grappling with a serious obesity problem. In England alone, 29% of adults and 15% of children aged two to 15 are obese.

    But the SDIL is having an effect. There has been a clear reduction in the sales of sugar from soft drinks, and the SDIL is reported to have generated £1.9 billion in revenue since its introduction in 2018.



    Read more:
    Sugary drinks are a killer: a 20% tax would save lives and rands in South Africa

    Early signs suggest health benefits, too. One study found a drop in obesity rates among 10 to 11-year-old girls following the levy’s implementation. Another analysis suggests that the greatest health benefits will be seen in more deprived areas, and that it may actually help to narrow some health inequalities for children in England.

    Shifting responsibilty

    Of course, the SDIL is no silver bullet. Excessive sugar consumption is consistently associated with rising obesity rates in the UK and globally. However, there are many contributing factors to the obesity epidemic, ranging from genetic predisposition to “obesogenic” environments – social contexts that promote unhealthy eating and sedentary behaviour, such as areas with a lot of fast food restaurants, limited access to healthy food options and a lack of pavements, parks, or safe places to exercise.

    Questions remain about the negative health effects of reformulated drinks, some of which still contain high levels of sweeteners or additives. And in the broader context of the need for food system transformation, focusing solely on soft drinks may be too narrow an approach.



    Read more:
    Are artificial sweeteners okay for our health? Here’s what the current evidence says

    But the SDIL’s success lies not just in outcomes but in its design. It shifts responsibility from individuals to industry, encouraging systemic change rather than simply blaming people for making “bad” choices. The government’s 2016 announcement of the levy gave manufacturers a two-year head start, allowing them to reformulate and get their products to market before it took effect in 2018.

    The government’s 2016 announcement of the sugar tax gave manufacturers time to reformulate products before the tax’s introduction in 2018.

    It’s also telling that the idea of taxing milkshakes has sparked such outrage, while most people now accept the high taxation of tobacco. That’s because smoking, as a public health issue, has matured: its risks are well understood and widely acknowledged. Obesity, meanwhile, is still catching up, despite posing similar health threats, including as a leading cause of cancer.

    In the UK, there’s still a strong social stigma around discussing diet and weight. But given the scale and urgency of the obesity crisis, it could be time to overcome this reluctance. Effective change will require bold, systemic policies – not just public awareness campaigns – but multipronged and targeted interventions that reshape the economic and cultural environments in which people make food choices.

    Expanding the SDIL may not be a cure-all, but the evidence so far suggests it’s a smart step in the right direction.

    David M. Evans receives funding from the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (grant ref: BB/V004719/1).
    He is affiliated with Defra (the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) as a member of their Social Science Expert Group.

    Jonathan Beacham receives funding from the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (grant ref: BB/V004719/1).

    – ref. The UK government wants to expand the sugar tax to milkshakes and plant-based drinks – here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-government-wants-to-expand-the-sugar-tax-to-milkshakes-and-plant-based-drinks-heres-what-you-need-to-know-255646

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: TikTok in Egypt: where rich and poor meet – and the state watches everything

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Gabriele Cosentino, Assistant Professor, American University in Cairo

    After being released from detention in 2011, Egyptian engineer and activist Wael Ghonim told the media:

    If you want to liberate a society, all you need is the internet.

    He’d been taken into custody for his role in the revolution that toppled the regime of Hosni Mubarak. Part of the success of this unprecedented popular uprising was due to the role of social media in mobilising citizens around a common political cause.

    In 2025, after a decade under the repressive government of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, it’s fair to say that little has remained of Ghonim’s vision. Social media use in Egypt is closely guarded by the authorities to detect signs of opposition. Citizens are routinely detained, even for the slightest criticism of the government.

    In 2018 Egypt introduced a new law, apparently to curb the problem of online misinformation and disinformation. This law is, in reality, often used to stifle dissent. Egyptians today operate within unclear boundaries of what is permissible to say online. The result is widespread self-censorship for fear of arrest.

    As a scholar of political communication and new media I’ve written books on global social media. I teach students about the social and political impact of digital and social media in Egypt. The video sharing platform TikTok is a frequent subject in my classes because it reveals both the liberating and the repressive effects of social media use in Egypt.

    TikTok stands out for its ability to create viral videos and sudden micro-celebrities. This has made it a lightning rod for government crackdowns. But it has also connected people across socio-economic divides and bred a lively new cultural and political debate – one that’s not as easy for the government to police.

    TikTok in Egypt

    Since 2020, TikTok has become immensely popular in Egypt, with an estimated 33 million users over 18 years old.

    While TikTok hasn’t taken on the explicit political dimension that Facebook or Twitter did over a decade ago, it has already become the theatre of a series of incidents that have landed its users in the crosshairs of the authorities. This has exposed political rifts and tensions.

    Most of the incidents are related to the ability of TikTok to work as a “virality engine” – even users with few followers can gain a sudden and sometimes problematic celebrity.

    But while Egyptian authorities have evidently been cracking down on TikTok users, there have been no concrete plans to ban the platform. In fact, some government branches have used it to advance their own initiatives. The Ministry of Youth and Sports, for example, signed an agreement with TikTok to launch the Egyptian TikTok Creator Hub, designed to educate youth on using social media responsibly.

    Women targeted

    Since 2020, Egyptian authorities have arrested TikTok users under charges ranging from the violation of family values to the spread of false information and allegations of belonging to terrorist organisations. Most of these TikTokers didn’t post explicit sexual or political content, making the charges against them appear exaggerated. These cases suggest the authorities are closely monitoring the platform, following strict moral and political considerations.

    The most high profile cases have involved young women, most notably Haneen Hossam and Mawada Eladham, who were arrested in 2020 for violating family values. Article 25 of Egypt’s anti-cybercrime law states that content “violating the family principles and values upheld by Egyptian society may be punished by a minimum of six months’ imprisonment and/or a fine”. It leaves the definition of family values purposefully vague.

    Observers have noted that this vagueness has allowed the law to be applied in a range of different cases. More than a dozen women have faced similar charges, endured pretrial detention and been handed lengthy prison sentences.

    The arbitrary nature of many of the charges suggests a possible deeper motive: policing the presence of young women in digital spaces where they can gain influence and financial independence outside traditional family or work structures.

    TikTok has given ordinary users in Egypt unprecedented visibility, in some cases allowing them to challenge social norms, often through humour. This appears to have unsettled authorities, who appear to have sought to send a message to the broader population.

    Arrests

    TikTok-related arrests have not been limited to family values. In 2022, three users were arrested for criticising rising food prices. They were charged with spreading fake news, despite the fact that inflation in Egypt was rising sharply.

    In 2023, a parody skit of a fake jail visit by a TikToker went viral. The creators were arrested and charged with belonging to a terror organisation, spreading fake news and misusing social media.



    Read more:
    Why some governments fear even teens on TikTok

    Such arrests indicate that TikTok content that touches on politically sensitive matters, even in jest, is posing a new type of challenge for the Egyptian government. The state is particularly concerned with viral content that might bring attention to its poor human rights record. This includes notoriously bad conditions in jails.

    ‘Egypt’ and ‘Masr’

    At the same time, the platform is proving able to connect people from very different social and economic backgrounds, as it is seen to do globally.

    Egypt is very hierarchical. Small, affluent elite groups live in a separate and secluded socio-economic reality from the majority of the population. Thirty percent of Egyptians live under the poverty line.

    On TikTok, the more privileged, cosmopolitan section of society is referred to as “Egypt”. The poor and disenfranchised are “Masr” (مصر), the Arabic word for Egypt.

    TikTok is aimed at generating viral content more than it is a networking site, like Facebook, that’s based on pre-existing social connections. The result is a virtual common space where the two sides can interact in new ways. This engenders unique social and cultural dynamics also observed in other countries.



    Read more:
    TikTok in Kenya: the government wants to restrict it, but my study shows it can be useful and empowering

    “Egypt” watches “Masr” create all kinds of content – from singing and dancing routines to live begging. “Masr” gets to peek into the otherwise inaccessible world of the wealthy.

    In the current climate of an economic crisis, this divide can be glaring. While most Egyptians are struggling with inflation, the cost of living and unemployment, the wealthy flaunt their lifestyles on TikTok.

    When wealthy TikTokers post content complaining about relatively petty issues like a long wait for valet parking at a luxury restaurant or boast about their weekly allowance, it reveals their disconnect from the everyday hardships faced by the less privileged.

    Users are able to comment freely on each other’s videos, sharing their unvarnished opinions. A student boasting about their weekly allowance of 3,000 EGP (US$60) might be told, “This is some people’s monthly salary.”

    Political consequences

    Since it first appeared in 2020, TikTok in Egypt has evolved from a platform mainly geared towards silly and entertaining content by teenagers. It’s become an outlet for people of all ages interested in gathering information, keeping abreast of current trends and events, and also a space for political engagement, especially on the issue of Palestine.



    Read more:
    Young Nigerians are flocking to TikTok – why it’s a double-edged sword

    There hasn’t been an obvious politicisation of TikTok in Egypt yet and there might never be, given the strict policing by authorities. But TikTok’s ability to expose divisions in Egyptian society and connect citizens across demographic cleavages could potentially have unexpected political consequences in the near future.

    Shahd Atef contributed to the research for this article

    Gabriele Cosentino does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. TikTok in Egypt: where rich and poor meet – and the state watches everything – https://theconversation.com/tiktok-in-egypt-where-rich-and-poor-meet-and-the-state-watches-everything-253278

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Somalia’s exports are threatened by climate change and conflict: what 30 years of data tell us

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mohamed Okash, Founding Director, Institute of Climate and Environment, Simad University

    In the sun-scorched lands of Somalia, farmers and livestock keepers have grown accustomed to the extremes of climate. In 2022, for example, the country suffered the longest drought in 40 years. This affected nearly half the national population of 18 million people. The following year, heavy and widespread flooding devastated the country’s farmlands and infrastructure.

    For a country whose economy breathes through its agriculture and livestock sectors, these extremes have adverse implications. Over 70% of the population relies on farming, herding and pastoral activities for their livelihoods. Despite these climatic shocks, agriculture contributes about 60% of Somalia’s GDP. This is down slightly from 65% two decades ago.

    The agricultural sector is diverse, yet fragile. It is made up of two primary components: crop cultivation (mainly sorghum, maize, sesame and fruit) and livestock rearing (camels, goats, sheep and cattle).

    Somalia’s strongest export offerings have included livestock and animal products, such as hides and skins, along with sesame seeds, bananas and charcoal.

    Livestock has been the cornerstone of exports for decades. It experienced strong growth from the early 2000s through the mid-2010s, but faced notable declines after 2017. This was a result of droughts, disease outbreaks and market disruptions. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman are among Somalia’s biggest trading partners.

    Apart from extremes of climate, the agricultural sector continues to be affected by political instability and conflict. Some of this conflict stems from disputes over water and land. These are common, particularly during times of drought, when competition for natural resources sparks conflict between settled and nomadic pastoralists.

    We are development researchers focused on the intersection of climatic vulnerability, conflict and economic resilience in fragile states. Our recent study set out to examine how the combined effects of climate change and conflict are shaping the country’s trade in agricultural and livestock products. We did this by analysing three decades (1985–2017). We analysed the long-term relationship between environmental stress, conflict events and the country’s export performance in key agricultural sectors.

    We found that erratic rainfall, rising temperatures and conflict have significantly constrained Somalia’s agricultural and livestock export performance over the past decade. While exports have not collapsed entirely, their growth trajectory has been repeatedly disrupted.

    Livestock exports, for instance, peaked in 2015–2016 at over US$530 million, but have since declined due to recurrent droughts, internal conflict and trade restrictions, including a partial import ban by Saudi Arabia in 2016.

    Our analysis confirms that a 1% rise in average temperature reduces agricultural exports by approximately 8.37%. Further, a single-unit increase in internal conflict correlates with a 0.13–0.16% drop in both livestock and crop exports in the long run.

    Although average rainfall boosts exports when available, its unpredictability creates volatility in both the short and long term. The study found that climatic shocks and ongoing conflict are deeply hurting Somalia’s agriculture and livestock exports.

    What the data says

    Our analysis, based on export figures, climate records and conflict datasets (including some from the World Bank), reveals a clear pattern: export performance rises with rainfall and declines with both rising temperatures and internal conflict.

    Banana and sorghum production have dropped by over 50% in some regions since the 1990s. Once a key export crop, bananas have nearly disappeared from Somalia’s export portfolio. Sesame remains a strong export, but yields are becoming more unpredictable.

    Heat stress, compounded by water scarcity, has reduced soil fertility and shortened growing seasons. Maize and groundnuts have been especially affected, with yields declining by up to 40% in recent drought years.

    Many of these crops were once sold in regional markets. They are now primarily consumed locally – or not grown at all.

    Overall, our research showed that Somalia’s competitiveness in global markets has weakened considerably. Livestock exports fell sharply during drought years, particularly 2011 and 2017.

    At the same time, Somalia has started importing basic food items such as maize and flour, which it used to grow domestically. This dependency is both economically and nutritionally dangerous.

    Falling production and exports

    Our analysis shows that internal conflict significantly reduces both agricultural and livestock exports in the long run. It does so by limiting market access and closing vital export corridors.

    This leads to a reliance on circuitous indirect trade routes through adjacent countries at the expense of the export economy. For example, livestock from southern Somalia can no longer reach key export ports due to insecurity.

    Violence over resources – especially water and land – frequently flares up in the central and northern rangelands between agro-pastoralists and nomadic herders. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, between 2012 and 2023, conflict alone forced more than 1.6 million people from their homes. In some of the worst years, like 2017 and 2021, over 400,000 people were displaced from their communities.

    The conflict has displaced rural populations. It has also fractured governance systems and access to international markets, making it harder for Somalia’s farmers and herders to survive.

    Extreme droughts and floods have had a severe impact on yields.

    When the rains are good, exports rise. But those rains are now unpredictable. Erratic precipitation patterns and higher temperatures have led to decreased crop yields and hampered livestock production. This is challenging the nation’s ability to sustain exports.

    What needs to be done

    In response to the challenges posed by climate change and conflicts over agricultural and livestock exports, Somalia needs strategic policy measures.

    First, Somalia should broaden the range of products it exports. Diversification reduces the country’s vulnerability to fluctuations in the market for specific goods. It also minimises risks associated with climate-related and conflict-induced disruptions, and enhances overall economic resilience.

    Second, the country must resolve internal conflicts which disrupt farming operations and displace rural communities.

    Third, the authorities should facilitate market access. Establishing export processing zones can help meet global quality standards. This would reduce the reliance on intermediaries and ensure that producers receive a fair share of profits.

    Finally, measures need to be taken to mitigate the impact of climate change on agriculture. The government needs to invest in climate-resilient farming systems, promoting sustainable agricultural practices and supporting farmers in adapting to changing climatic conditions. This adaptation should include:

    • irrigation systems to reduce dependence on erratic rainfall

    • drought-resistant and heat-tolerant crop varieties

    • research, skills building and extension services to support local communities

    • integrated pest management and sustainable land and soil management.

    For Somalia, investing in agricultural exports is not merely an economic imperative. It is a development challenge that demands a multifaceted approach encompassing climate resilience, institutional strengthening and inclusive economic growth.

    This research is funded by SIMAD University in Mogadishu, Somalia.

    This research is funded by SIMAD University in Mogadishu, Somalia.

    – ref. Somalia’s exports are threatened by climate change and conflict: what 30 years of data tell us – https://theconversation.com/somalias-exports-are-threatened-by-climate-change-and-conflict-what-30-years-of-data-tell-us-254146

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Does free schooling give girls a better chance in life? Burundi study shows the poorest benefited most

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Frederik Wild, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Heidelberg

    Teenage pregnancy rates remain high across many parts of the developing world: In Africa, on average, about one in ten girls between the ages of 15 and 19 has already given birth. These early pregnancies often come with serious consequences for young mothers and their children. They are linked to lower education levels, poorer health outcomes, and reduced economic opportunities.

    Scientists, development agencies and NGOs have long heralded education as a powerful tool to reduce early childbearing. Education may directly influence women’s reproductive behaviour, but it can also improve their employment and income-generating opportunities, leading them to postpone pregnancy.

    But does access to basic education for young girls result in such successes uniformly across population groups?



    Read more:
    Ghana’s free high school policy is getting more girls to complete secondary education – study

    We are economists who conducted a study to explore the effect of primary school education on fertility and its related outcomes in Burundi. A bold education reform took place in that country in 2005: the government abolished formal school fees for primary education. As a result, many children who had been excluded from school by cost were able to get a basic education.

    The free primary education policy displays a natural experiment for researchers interested in the effects of education. Because the reform applied only to children young enough to be in school, we could compare girls who were eligible for free schooling with those who were just too old to be eligible (but similar in other ways). This allowed us to track the policy’s direct and causal effects.

    Indeed, we see that Burundi’s free primary education policy increased educational attainment of women by 1.22 years on average. Our findings also provide new, robust evidence that education can reduce downstream effects, as we see teenage childbearing reducing by as much as 6.9 percentage points. In other words, while about 37% of teenage women who did not benefit from free primary education had given birth before the age of 20, only 30% of those eligible for free primary education had done so.

    Importantly, and new in our findings, education conferred the greatest benefit to girls from the poorest segment of society. Our study thereby underscores an important lesson for policymakers: education policies can be highly effective, but not necessarily for everyone in the same way.

    A natural experiment in Burundi

    We used nationally representative data from Burundi’s Demographic and Health Surveys to establish the effects of education. We compared women born between 1987 and 1991 to those born between 1992 and 1996 – aged 14-18 and 9-13 respectively when the free school policy took effect. We applied modern econometric techniques to identify the increase in years of schooling induced by the policy. We then examined the effect of this increase in schooling on girls’ outcomes, including teenage pregnancy, literacy, and the likelihood of working for cash income, among other outcomes.

    The results were striking. Girls who had been young enough to benefit from free schooling gained, on average, 1.22 more years of education thanks to the programme. That corresponds to a 34% increase in the years of education compared to similar women who missed out on the policy. Crucially, this increase occurred across the board – both poor and wealthier women gained more education.

    But there was a twist: only young women from poor backgrounds seemed to reap broader benefits from that extra schooling.



    Read more:
    Burundi at 60 is the poorest country on the planet: a look at what went wrong

    For girls from very low-income households, one additional year of schooling reduced the likelihood of becoming a teenage mother by nearly 7 percentage points.

    It also decreased their desired number of children and boosted their literacy and chances of working for a cash income outside their own home. These are all powerful indicators of women gaining autonomy and making more informed reproductive choices.

    While girls from wealthier households experienced an increase in education too, this additional schooling showed no measurable effect on fertility, literacy, or employment outcomes for them. Thus, we did not find any statistically significant impact of increased schooling for these girls.

    In other words, the free primary education programme in Burundi increased the number of years of education for girls in general but the downstream effects of that education appear to have materialised only for the very poor.

    Why does household wealth matter?

    Why would women from the relatively wealthier families not benefit equally from more education?

    One reason could be that somewhat wealthier households had already ensured higher levels of education for their daughters, even before school fees were abolished in Burundi. The education reform thus made less of a difference in their lives. Very poor families, on the other hand, were far more likely to be constrained by the costs of primary education. When that barrier was removed, their daughters could finally access schooling, and this had transformative effects also for sexual and reproductive health.



    Read more:
    Girls thrive with women teachers: a study in Francophone Africa

    For the most disadvantaged, education is more likely to open up new economic opportunities. We found that policy-induced education increased their likelihood of working outside of their own household for a cash income, which raises the opportunity cost of early childbearing. The classic economic theory by Nobel prize laureate Gary Becker and Jacob Mincer suggests that when women have better employment prospects, they are more likely to postpone childbirth. And they invest more in their children but tend to have fewer of them. This is precisely what we observed in our data.

    Education also seems to empower women by increasing their knowledge and capacity to access information. We found that literacy rates among poor women rose significantly with each added year of schooling. Another prominent theory in the literature on education is that educated women are more likely to understand and use contraception, make informed reproductive decisions, and challenge traditional gender norms.

    Rethinking one-size-fits-all policies

    Our study underscores an important lesson for policymakers: education policies can be highly effective, but not necessarily for everyone in the same way.

    When evaluating the success of reforms like free primary education, we must go beyond average effects. Aggregated data can mask substantial differences between population groups. If we had only looked at average outcomes, we might have concluded that free schooling had little effect on teenage childbearing. But by disaggregating our data by household wealth, we see a different and far more hopeful picture. Free schooling has powerful effects – if we know where to look.

    Frederik Wild received funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation), EXC 2052/1 – 390713894 for the research paper referenced in the article. The views expressed in this article are solely my own and do not represent those of my employer or affiliated organizations.

    David Stadelmann received funding from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation), EXC 2052/1 – 390713894.

    – ref. Does free schooling give girls a better chance in life? Burundi study shows the poorest benefited most – https://theconversation.com/does-free-schooling-give-girls-a-better-chance-in-life-burundi-study-shows-the-poorest-benefited-most-253634

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Digital government can benefit citizens: how South Africa can reduce the risks and get it right

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Busani Ngcaweni, Visiting Adjunct Professor, Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand

    The digital revolution is reshaping governance worldwide. From the electronic filing of taxes to digital visa applications, technology is making government services more accessible, efficient and transparent.

    South Africa is making progress in its digital journey. In 2024 it climbed to 40th place out of 193 countries, from 65th place in 2022, in the United Nations e-Government Index. This improvement makes the country one of Africa’s digital leaders, surpassing Mauritius and Tunisia.

    South Africa has identified more than 255 government services for digitisation. Already, 134 are available on the National e-Government Portal. This achievement is remarkable. Nevertheless, the shift to digitisation comes with challenges and risks.

    Some countries have weakened the state’s role by rapidly outsourcing key government functions. But South Africa has the opportunity to build a model of digital transformation that strengthens public institutions rather than diminishes them.

    New technologies must bring tangible benefits for citizens. Digital transformation can improve public administration. But, if mismanaged, it could burden taxpayers with costs.

    Benefits

    Digital transformation comes at a cost. This is particularly true if the state fails to use its procurement power to negotiate reasonable prices. Infrastructure upgrades, cybersecurity measures, software licensing and system maintenance require substantial financial investment.

    The question is whether these expenses are a necessary step towards a more efficient and accessible government.

    Two South African examples illustrate that digital transformation can save money and enhance service delivery quality.

    The first is the South African Revenue Service. Its goal is to ensure that taxpayers and tax advisers can use the service from anywhere and at any time. The changes made more than a decade ago show that digital systems can yield substantial financial gains. After introducing e-filing in 2006, the revenue service streamlined tax processes, reduced inefficiencies and led to higher compliance rates. Ultimately this led to improved revenue collection.

    Similarly, digitising social grant payments has had a number of positive effects. In a chapter of a recent edited volume on public governance, my colleagues and I wrote a case study about how the South African Social Security Agency used basic technologies and platforms like WhatsApp and email to process a grant during the COVID pandemic. It allowed over 14 million people to apply, paid grants to over 6 million beneficiaries during the first phase of the project.

    South African Social Security Agency annual reports show that over 95% of grant beneficiaries receive their payouts electronically through debit cards, instead of going to cash points. This improves security and lets beneficiaries decide when to get and spend their money.

    There are fears that automation could result in massive job losses. But global experience has shown that digitalisation does not necessarily lead to large-scale retrenchments. Instead it can shift the nature of work to other responsibilities.

    The South African Social Security Agency provides a compelling case. Its transition to digital grant payments did not lead to job losses. Similarly, the expansion of e-filing at the revenue service has not resulted in workforce reductions. In both cases efficiencies improved.

    These cases highlight that digital transformation is reshaping roles rather than displacing employees. Public servants are moving into areas such as cybersecurity, data analysis and AI-driven decision-making.

    Shortcomings and pitfalls

    A number of inefficiencies are at play in government services.

    Firstly, most government digital operations still work with outdated paper-based systems. The lack of a uniform digital identity creates bureaucratic inefficiencies and delays.

    Secondly, fragmented procurement of equipment in government has led to duplicated efforts, increased costs and fruitless expenditure.

    Thirdly, different departments often use isolated and incompatible digital systems. This reduce the mutual benefits of digital transformation. The State IT Agency has been blamed for inefficiencies, procurement failures and questionable spending.

    Fourthly, South Africa’s public service remains fragmented. Citizens still struggle to access government services seamlessly. They often move between departments to complete what should be a single transaction.

    Without a centralised system, departments operate in isolation, duplicating efforts, increasing costs and eroding public trust.



    Read more:
    South Africa’s civil servants are missing skills, especially when it comes to technology – report

    Fifth, a lack of skills. Increasing reliance on digital tools requires expertise in data analytics, cloud computing and automation. Many public servants lack the training to take on these new roles. The National Digital and Future Skills Strategy was introduced in September 2020 to bridge this gap, but its effectiveness depends on its implementation.

    Introducing it in 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic forced government to make digital leaps which otherwise might have taken longer. To sustain services, technology had to be rapidly adopted, including basic things like holding Cabinet meetings online, using a system rapidly developed by the State Information Technology Agency.

    Sixth, security concerns complicate the transformation. As government systems become digital, they become vulnerable to cyberattacks. South Africa must put in place cybersecurity infrastructure to prevent identity theft, data breaches and service disruptions. A cyberattack on one department could affect the entire public sector.

    What needs to be done

    Government must streamline procurement, improve coordination and eliminate inefficiencies to ensure interdepartmental collaboration.

    A single, integrated e-government platform would:

    • cut red tape

    • reduce queues

    • increase efficiency.

    Government needs to upskill civil servants and improve their digital literacy.

    Government must create a seamless e-government system that connects services while protecting citizens’ personal information. The success of digitalisation depends on technological advancements as well as the level of trust citizens have in government systems. Without strong security measures, transparency and accountability, even the most sophisticated digital tools will fail to gain public confidence.

    South Africa has the chance to demonstrate that a strong, capable state can successfully integrate technology while safeguarding public interests. It should take full advantage of offers by Microsoft, Amazon and Huawei to support digital skills training in the public sector in a way that does not advantage one company’s technologies over others. Choices of technology must be user-centric, not based on preferences of accounting officers and chief information officers. Leaders of public institutions must be measured on their ability to digitally transform their organisations.

    Busani Ngcaweni is affiliated with the National School of Government, Wits and Johannesburg Universities.

    – ref. Digital government can benefit citizens: how South Africa can reduce the risks and get it right – https://theconversation.com/digital-government-can-benefit-citizens-how-south-africa-can-reduce-the-risks-and-get-it-right-254089

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Digital clones of real models are revolutionizing fashion advertising

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Luana Carcano, Lecturer, Beedie School of Business, Simon Fraser University

    Driven by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and metaverse technologies, digital clones are transforming fast-fashion marketing. Always available, ageless and adaptable to any setting, these virtual figures enable brands to create immersive, cost-effective campaigns that resonate with today’s digital-first consumers.



    Read more:
    Fake models for fast fashion? What AI clones mean for our jobs — and our identities

    Virtual influencers — digitally created personas used to provide entertainment, generate content and endorse brands — are becoming increasingly influential, especially among Gen Z and digital-first audiences.

    These virtual figures vary in form: some, like Lil Miquela and Shudu, are entirely computer-generated, while others, such as Hatsune Miku, incorporate human elements like voice or motion.

    Hybrid influencers blend real and virtual components, allowing for brand-specific customization. These virtual influencers boost brand visibility, drive engagement and influence market performance.

    Real persons, virtual personas

    The estimate for global influencer market size for 2024 was valued at over US$24 billion and is projected to grow to over US$32 billion in 2025. The rise of virtual influencers is particularly prominent in Asia.

    This trend is also reshaping the US$2.5 trillion modelling industry, according to The Business of Fashion. AI-generated avatars and digital clones enable brands to cut production costs and accelerate campaign development. As a result, companies such as Levi Strauss & Co. are partnering with AI modelling firms to integrate these virtual personas into their marketing strategies.

    Digital twins

    Digital twins — virtual replicas of real people — are gaining traction in marketing to enhance personalization, streamline content creation and deepen customer engagement.

    In the fashion world, they provide a means to maintain a sense of human connection while using AI for precision and volume purposes. Fast-fashion retailer H&M recently introduced AI-generated digital twins of real-life models for advertising and social media content. Positioned as a creative and operational aid rather than a replacement for human talent, the initiative has ignited industry-wide debate.



    Read more:
    AI clones made from user data pose uncanny risks

    While the brand highlights the advantages — lower production costs and faster catalogue development — some critics have raised ethical concerns regarding representation and transparency.

    These digital twins fall into the category of “front-of-camera” tools: static avatars used in visual content without independent personas or social media presence. Unlike virtual influencers, they do not interact with audiences or build followings. Instead, they function strictly as visual stand-ins for traditional models, who are compensated for the use of their likenesses, similar to conventional campaigns.

    As these avatars do not speak, endorse or engage directly with consumers, they remain subject to traditional advertising regulations — not influencer marketing laws.

    Digital models are used for operational efficiency: testing and refining creative strategies before rollout, reducing costs and potentially offering immersive digital experiences to enhance customer connection and brand loyalty.

    Authenticity and other challenges

    In July 2024, fast-fashion retailer Mango launched its first advertising campaign featuring AI-generated avatars to promote a limited-edition collection for teenaged girls.

    These AI-generated influencers and digital twins introduce numerous ethical and legal challenges. These innovations raise difficult questions about the displacement of human talent — including models, make-up artists, hairstylists and photographers — and broader implications for creative industries.

    Key concerns centre on consent and compensation. The unauthorized use of an individual’s likeness, even in digital form, poses a risk of exploitation and underscores the importance of clear standards and protections. The legal landscape regarding image rights and intellectual property is still evolving, which makes compliance both essential and complex.

    As the lines between reality and digital fabrication blur, brands risk eroding consumer trust. The authenticity that audiences value can be undermined if AI-generated content seems deceptive or inauthentic.

    Companies must tread carefully, balancing innovation with transparency.

    Diversity is another critical issue. While AI offers customization, it can also perpetuate biases or create an illusion of inclusivity without genuine representation.

    An Associated Press report on AI models and diversity.

    As the use of AI proliferates, ensuring that digital models support, rather than hinder, meaningful advancement in representation will be essential.

    Ultimately, brands must implement ethical frameworks to ensure that AI enhances creativity while maintaining integrity, inclusivity and legal accountability.

    Strategic considerations

    Digital clones provide fast-fashion brands with a powerful tool to create personalized shopping experiences and enable greater representation of diverse body types and style preferences. This degree of customization can significantly enhance customer satisfaction and brand loyalty.

    To ensure ethical integration, transparency is crucial. Brands must clearly disclose when digital models appear in campaigns. These digital representations should encompass a wide variety of demographics to genuinely promote inclusivity and engage with a broader audience.

    Establishing ethical and legal safeguards is equally important. Creating digital clones requires explicit consent and careful attention to intellectual property rights. Without clear guidelines and permissions, brands risk violating privacy, misusing likenesses and facing legal repercussions.

    Luana Carcano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Digital clones of real models are revolutionizing fashion advertising – https://theconversation.com/digital-clones-of-real-models-are-revolutionizing-fashion-advertising-254244

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –