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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Teachers and librarians are among those least likely to die by suicide − public health researchers offer insights on what this means for other professions

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jordan Batchelor, Research Analyst at the Center for Violence Prevention and Community Safety, Arizona State University

    One reason teachers have a low suicide rate may be that they find meaning in their jobs. Digital Vision/Getty Images

    Where you work affects your risk of dying by suicide. For example, loggers, musicians and workers in the oil and gas industries have much higher rates of suicide than the rest of the population.

    But on the flip side, some professions have very low rates of suicide. One of them is education. National and state data shows that educators in the U.S., including teachers, professors and librarians, are among the least likely to die by suicide.

    We’re a team of researchers at the Center for Violence Prevention and Community Safety at Arizona State University. We manage Arizona’s Violent Death Reporting System, part of a surveillance system sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with counterparts in all 50 U.S. states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico. We collect data on violent deaths, including suicide, thanks to agreements with local medical examiners and law enforcement.

    When public health researchers like us look at suicide data, we often focus on high-risk populations to learn where intervention and prevention are most needed. But we can learn from low-risk populations such as educators too.

    Why some professions have higher suicide rates

    Over the past 25 years, the suicide rate in the U.S. has increased significantly.

    The age-adjusted rate in 2022 was 14.2 suicides per 100,000 people, up from 10.9 a little over two decades earlier, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Epidemiologists often adjust data for age to allow for a fairer comparison of incidence rates across populations with different age distributions.

    But not all populations are affected equally. For example, military veterans die by suicide at higher rates than civilians, as do men, older adults and American Indian and Alaska Natives, to name a few demographics. In 2022 the suicide rate for men, for instance, was 23 suicides per 100,000, versus 5.9 for women.

    The rate of suicide among the working-age population is also growing. Over the past two decades it has increased by 33%, reaching a rate of 32 suicides per 100,000 for men and eight for women in 2021. And workers in certain occupations are at higher risk of dying by suicide than others.

    The reasons why are complex and diverse. Workers in construction, an industry with some of the highest suicide rates, may face greater stigma getting help for mental health issues, while people in other fields such as law enforcement may be more exposed to traumatic experiences, which can harm their mental health.

    In short, some explanations are directly tied to one’s work, such as having low job security, little autonomy or agency, and an imbalance of work efforts and rewards. Other factors are more indirect, such as an occupation’s demographic makeup or the type of personality that chooses a profession. Together, factors like these help explain the rate of suicide across occupations.

    Teachers, professors and librarians

    Educators, on the other hand, have relatively little suicide risk.

    By educators, we mean workers classified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as “educational instruction and library,” which includes teachers, tutors, professors, librarians and similar occupations.

    Nationally, about 11 in 100,000 male educators died by suicide in 2021, with the figure for women being about half that, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. By contrast, the rate for male workers in arts, design, entertainment, sports and media was 44.5 suicides per 100,000, and the rate for male workers in construction and extraction was 65.6.

    Data from our state of Arizona follows the same pattern. From 2016 through 2023, a total of 117 educators died by suicide, mostly primary and secondary school teachers. This works out to be an incidence rate of 7.3 suicides per 100,000 educators − one-third the rate for all Arizona workers and the lowest among all occupations in the state.

    Why educators have a low suicide rate

    So why are educators at such a low risk of suicide? After all, educational professions certainly present their own challenges. For example, many teachers experience high amounts of burnout, which can cause physical and mental health problems such as headaches, fatigue, anxiety and depression.

    A good place to begin is the profession’s demographic composition. A disproportionately high share of educators are women or are married − traits associated with lower suicide rates. Educators also tend to have high educational attainment, which may indirectly protect against suicide by increasing socioeconomic status and employability.

    Another factor is workplace environment. Workplaces that offer increased access to lethal means such as firearms and medications are associated with higher suicide rates. This helps explain why workers in law enforcement, medical professions and the military tend to show high rates. The comparatively low availability of lethal means in schools may help keep educators’ rates low.

    In addition, educators’ workplaces, typically schools and campuses, offer rich opportunities to form strong social relationships, which improve one’s overall health and help workers cope with job stress. The unique, meaningful bonds many educators form with their students, administrators and fellow educators may offer support that enhances their mental health.

    Finally, based on more contextual information in our Arizona database, we found that a lower proportion of educators who died by suicide had an alcohol or drug abuse problem. Alcohol or substance abuse problems can increase suicidal ideation and other work-related risk factors such as job insecurity and work-related injury. In short, educators may live a healthier lifestyle compared with some other workers.

    Improving worker health

    So, what can workers and employers in other professions learn from this, and how can we improve worker health?

    One lesson is to develop skills to cope with job stress. All professions are capable of producing stress, which can negatively affect a person’s mental and physical health. Identifying the root cause of job stress and applying coping skills, such as positive thinking, meditation and goal-setting, can have beneficial effects.

    Developing a social network at the workplace is also key. High-quality social relationships can improve health to a degree on par with quitting smoking. Social relationships provide tangible and intangible support and help establish one’s sense of purpose and identity. This applies outside the workplace, too. So promoting work-life balance is one way organizations can help their employees.

    Organizations can also strive to foster a positive workplace culture. One aspect of such a culture is establishing a sense of meaning or purpose in the work. For educators, this feature may help offset some of the profession’s challenges. Other aspects include appreciating employees for their hard work, identifying and magnifying employee strengths, and not creating a toxic workplace.

    It is worth noting that continued research on occupational health is important. In the context of educators, more research is needed to understand how risk differs between and within specific groups. Despite their overall low risk, no person or demographic is immune to suicide, and every suicide is preventable.

    If you or someone you know is experiencing signs of crisis, the free and confidential 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline is available to call, text or chat.

    This research was made possible by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Division of Violence Prevention, who sponsor the Arizona Violent Death Reporting System data. The findings and conclusions of this research are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of the CDC.

    Charles Max Katz is affiliated with Arizona State University.This research was made possible by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Division of Violence Prevention, who sponsor the Arizona Violent Death Reporting System data. The findings and conclusions of this research are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of the CDC.

    – ref. Teachers and librarians are among those least likely to die by suicide − public health researchers offer insights on what this means for other professions – https://theconversation.com/teachers-and-librarians-are-among-those-least-likely-to-die-by-suicide-public-health-researchers-offer-insights-on-what-this-means-for-other-professions-252795

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hurricane forecasts are more accurate than ever – NOAA funding cuts could change that, with a busy storm season coming

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Vagasky, Meteorologist and Research Program Manager, University of Wisconsin-Madison

    Radar shows a NOAA Hurricane Hunter flying through the eye of Tropical Storm Idalia during a mission in 2023. Nick Underwood/NOAA

    The National Hurricane Center’s forecasts in 2024 were its most accurate on record, from its one-day forecasts, as tropical cyclones neared the coast, to its forecasts five days into the future, when storms were only beginning to come together.

    Thanks to federally funded research, forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks today are up to 75% more accurate than they were in 1990. A National Hurricane Center forecast three days out today is about as accurate as a one-day forecast in 2002, giving people in the storm’s path more time to prepare and reducing the size of evacuations.

    Accuracy will be crucial again in 2025, as meteorologists predict another active Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

    Yet, cuts in staffing and threats to funding at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – which includes the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service – are diminishing operations that forecasters rely on.

    I am a meteorologist who studies lightning in hurricanes and helps train other meteorologists to monitor and forecast tropical cyclones. Here are three of the essential components of weather forecasting that have been targeted for cuts to funding and staff at NOAA.

    Tracking the wind

    To understand how a hurricane is likely to behave, forecasters need to know what’s going on in the atmosphere far from the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

    Hurricanes are steered by the winds around them. Wind patterns detected today over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains – places like Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska and South Dakota – give forecasters clues to the winds that will be likely along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in the days ahead.

    Satellites can’t take direct measurements, so to measure these winds, scientists rely on weather balloons. That data is essential both for forecasts and to calibrate the complicated formulas forecasters use to make estimates from satellite data.

    A meteorologist prepares to launch a weather balloon at Mammoth Hot Springs, Wyo. Data collected by the balloon’s radiosonde will help predict local weather that can influence fire behavior.
    Neal Herbert/National Park Service

    However, in early 2025, the Trump administration terminated or suspended weather balloon launches at more than a dozen locations.

    That move and other cuts and threatened cuts at NOAA have raised red flags for forecasters across the country and around the world.

    Forecasters everywhere, from TV to private companies, rely on NOAA’s data to do their jobs. Much of that data would be extremely expensive if not impossible to replicate.

    Under normal circumstances, weather balloons are released from around 900 locations around the world at 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern time every day. While the loss of just 12 of these profiles may not seem significant, small amounts of missing data can lead to big forecast errors. This is an example of chaos theory, more popularly known as the butterfly effect.

    The balloons carry a small instrument called a radiosonde, which records data as it rises from the surface of the Earth to around 120,000 feet above ground. The radiosonde acts like an all-in-one weather station, beaming back details of the temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and air pressure every 15 feet through its flight.

    Together, all these measurements help meteorologists interpret the atmosphere overhead and feed into computer models used to help forecast weather around the country, including hurricanes.

    Hurricane Hunters

    For more than 80 years, scientists have been flying planes into hurricanes to measure each storm’s strength and help forecast its path and potential for damage.

    Known as “Hurricane Hunters,” these crews from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA routinely conduct reconnaissance missions throughout hurricane season using a variety of instruments. Similar to weather balloons, these flights are making measurements that satellites can’t.

    Hurricane Hunters use Doppler radar to gauge how the wind is blowing and LiDAR to measure temperature and humidity changes. They drop probes to measure the ocean temperature down several hundred feet to tell how much warm water might be there to fuel the storm.

    They also release 20 to 30 dropsondes, measuring devices with parachutes. As the dropsondes fall through the storm, they transmit data about the temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction and air pressure every 15 feet or so from the plane to the ocean.

    Dropsondes from Hurricane Hunter flights are the only way to directly measure what is occurring inside the storm. Although satellites and radars can see inside hurricanes, these are indirect measurements that do not have the fine-scale resolution of dropsonde data.

    That data tells National Hurricane Center forecasters how intense the storm is and whether the atmosphere around the storm is favorable for strengthening. Dropsonde data also helps computer models forecast the track and intensity of storms days into the future.

    Two NOAA Hurricane Hunter flight directors were laid off in February 2025, leaving only six when 10 are preferred. Directors are the flight meteorologists aboard each flight who oversee operations and ensure the planes stay away from the most dangerous conditions.

    Having fewer directors limits the number of flights that can be sent out during busy times when Hurricane Hunters are monitoring multiple storms. And that would limit the accurate data the National Hurricane Center would have for forecasting storms.

    Eyes in the sky

    Weather satellites that monitor tropical storms from space provide continuous views of each storm’s track and intensity changes. The equipment on these satellites and software used to analyze it make increasingly accurate hurricane forecasts possible. Much of that equipment is developed by federally funded researchers.

    For example, the Cooperative Institutes in Wisconsin and Colorado have developed software and methods that help meteorologists better understand the current state of tropical cyclones and forecast future intensity when aircraft reconnaissance isn’t immediately available.

    Forecasting rapid intensification is one of the great challenges for hurricane scientists. It’s the dangerous shift when a tropical cyclone’s wind speeds jump by at least 35 mph (56 kilometers per hour) in 24 hours.

    For example, in 2018, Hurricane Michael’s rapid intensification caught the Florida Panhandle by surprise. The Category 5 storm caused billions of dollars in damage across the region, including at Tyndall Air Force Base, where several F-22 Stealth Fighters were still in hangars.

    NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite shows Hurricanes Irma, left, and Jose in the Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 7, 2017.
    NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), CC BY

    Under the federal budget proposal details released so far, including a draft of agencies’ budget plans marked up by Trump’s Office of Management and Budget, known as the passback, there is no funding for Cooperative Institutes. There is also no funding for aircraft recapitalization. A 2022 NOAA plan sought to purchase up to six new aircraft that would be used by Hurricane Hunters.

    The passback budget also cut funding for some technology from future satellites, including lightning mappers that are used in hurricane intensity forecasting and to warn airplanes of risks.

    It only takes one

    Tropical storms and hurricanes can have devastating effects, as Hurricanes Helene and Milton reminded the country in 2024. These storms, while well forecast, resulted in billions of dollars of damage and hundreds of fatalities.

    The U.S. has been facing more intense storms, and the coastal population and value of property in harm’s way are growing. As five former directors of the National Weather Service wrote in an open letter, cutting funding and staff from NOAA’s work that is improving forecasting and warnings ultimately threatens to leave more lives at risk.

    Chris Vagasky is a member of the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association.

    – ref. Hurricane forecasts are more accurate than ever – NOAA funding cuts could change that, with a busy storm season coming – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-forecasts-are-more-accurate-than-ever-noaa-funding-cuts-could-change-that-with-a-busy-storm-season-coming-255369

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How was the Earth built?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alexander E. Gates, Professor of Earth and Environmental Science, Rutgers University – Newark

    The Earth formed in a ring of debris around the Sun, like the one around Vega, a bright star, in this artist’s conception. NASA/JPL-Caltech

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.

    How was the Earth built? – Noah, age 5, Florida

    It isn’t easy to figure out how the Earth was built, because it happened 4½ billion years ago, and no one was there to watch. So scientists have had to look at what the Earth looks like now and at all of the other planets, moons and debris in the solar system.

    They’ve concluded that the Earth was built in the same way that you would build a big snowball to make a snowman. The mass that would become our home rolled through planetary debris – rocks floating in space – for more than 100 million years, adding more and more material, until it grew into a full-size planet.

    How do scientists like me know this is what happened? First, studies of the size, composition and location of asteroids and comets, many of which are as old as the Earth, indicate that 4½ billion years ago the solar system looked the way Saturn looks today, with rings of space rocks orbiting around the Sun. There’s still one such ring around the Sun – it’s called the asteroid belt and lies between Mars and Jupiter, with the Sun’s gravity holding the rocks in orbit.

    The solar system that includes Earth formed from a spinning disk of dust and gases.

    All of the other bodies that we know as planets today began as similar rings of space debris. An eddy, or area of rolling, developed in each of these rings and caused the debris to clump up in a snowball effect. But these pieces of debris were asteroids that smashed violently into the growing planets.

    We can see those impacts on planets and moons whose surfaces haven’t weathered or reformed. If you look at the Moon or the planet Mercury, you can see that they are covered with craters from asteroid impacts.

    When asteroids or comets struck these building planets, they crashed into their surfaces at speeds as high as 40,000 to 50,000 miles per hour (65,000 to 80,000 kilometers per hour). The impacts caused huge explosions that emitted massive amounts of dust and broken or melted rock.

    In fact, scientists believe that the Moon was once part of the Earth, until a large asteroid crashed into the Earth so hard that the Moon broke away and shot into space. There, it began orbiting the Earth as it does now.

    Still under construction

    Most big asteroids and comets collided with the Earth when it was young, about 4½ billion years ago. The number of such collisions has steadily decreased ever since. However, at least 100 tons of dust-size space rock rains down on the Earth every day, increasing the size of our planet bit by bit.

    The Earth also collides with space rocks, called meteors, that show up as shooting stars in the night sky. Some of these meteors come from an impact that struck Mars at some point, breaking away rock from the planet surface and shooting it into outer space. These rocks have been falling to Earth ever since.

    What’s the difference between an asteroid and a comet? Asteroids are large space rocks, while comets are large, dirty ice balls. Meteors are smaller − typically the size of pebbles or even dust.

    About 65 million years ago, a huge asteroid struck the Earth in the Gulf of Mexico. The enormous Chicxulub explosion drove large tsunamis throughout the ocean and raised so much dust into the air that it made the dinosaurs go extinct.

    Another large asteroid impact, about 35 million years ago, made a huge crater in the area that is now the Chesapeake Bay, near Washington, D.C. More recently, in 1908, an asteroid likely exploded over Tunguska, Russia, flattening 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers) of trees. Fortunately, no one lived in the area, so there were no known casualties.

    Barringer Crater in Arizona was caused by a meteor strike about 50,000 years ago. It measures about 0.75 miles (1.2 kilometers) across.
    D. Roddy, USGS/Wikipedia

    Once a mass of space debris was assembled into the Earth, many processes continued to shape the planet’s surface. Wind, water, heat and cold cause rocks to weather and break down and soil to erode. Mountains are created as pieces of Earth’s crust collide and crack. Rivers and glaciers wear down the planet’s surface to make it smoother.

    The Earth is a dynamic planet that is constantly being built, and these processes will continue for billions of years into the future.

    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Alexander E. Gates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How was the Earth built? – https://theconversation.com/how-was-the-earth-built-254257

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Viral video shows Fiji prison chief throwing punches at Suva bar

    RNZ Pacific

    The head of Fiji’s prison service has been caught on camera involved in a fist fight that appears to have taken place at the popular O’Reilley’s Bar in the capital of Suva.

    Sevuloni Naucukidi, the acting Commissioner of the Fiji Corrections Service (FCS), can be seen in the viral video throwing punches at another man as staff at the establishment scramble to contain the situation.

    The 30-second clip of the incident, shared online by The Fiji Times today, had been viewed more than half a million times, with more than 8200 reactions and almost 2000 shares by 1pm (NZT).

    Naucukidi was appointed to act as the Fiji prison chief at the end of March after the FCS Commissioner Dr Jalesi Nakarawa was stood down by the Constitutional Offices Commission following allegations of misbehaviour.

    Fiji’s Minister for Justice Siromi Turaga (left) and Correction Service acting Commissioner Sevuloni Naucukidi on 30 March 2025. Image: Fiji Corrections Service/RNZ Pacific

    Police spokesperson Wame Boutolu told The Fiji Times that no complaint had been filed with police regarding the incident.

    The newspaper reported that it was not clear whether the incident took place before or after Naucukidi’s appointment as FCS acting commissioner.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    The Fiji Times reported later that Justice Minister Siromi Turaga had said that a “certain level of decorum is expected at all times — particularly when in uniform, whether that be Bula Friday wear or your official work attire”.

    He made the comments in relation to the controversial video.

    Turaga said preliminary investigations indicated that the footage was from an earlier date.

    “We have contacted the owners of the establishment, who have confirmed that the video likely dates back to early March 2025,” he said.

    The Fiji Times video clip.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PINA on World Press Freedom Day – facing new and complex AI challenges

    By Kalafi Moala in Nuku’alofa

    On this World Press Freedom Day, we in the Pacific stand together to defend and promote the right to freedom of expression — now facing new and complex challenges in the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI).

    This year’s global theme is “Reporting a Brave New World: The impact of Artificial Intelligence on Press Freedom.”

    AI is changing the way we gather, share, and consume information. It offers exciting tools that can help journalists work faster and reach more people, even across our scattered islands.

    But AI also brings serious risks. It can be used to spread misinformation, silence voices, and make powerful tech companies the gatekeepers of what people see and hear.

    In the Pacific, our media are already working with limited resources. Now we face even greater pressure as AI tools are used without fair recognition or payment to those who create original content.

    Our small newsrooms struggle to compete with global platforms that are reshaping the media landscape.

    We must not allow AI to weaken media freedom, independence, or diversity in our region.

    Respect our Pacific voices
    Instead, we must ensure that new technologies serve our people, respect our voices, and support the role of journalism in democracy and development.

    Today, PINA calls for stronger regional collaboration to understand and manage the impact of AI. We urge governments, tech companies, and development partners to support Pacific media in building digital skills, protecting press freedom, and ensuring fair use of our content.

    Let us ensure that the future of journalism in the Pacific is guided by truth, fairness, and freedom — not by unchecked algorithms.

    Happy World Press Freedom to all media workers across the Pacific!

     Kalafi Moala is president of the Pacific Islands News Association (PINA) and also editor of Talanoa ‘o Tonga. Republished from TOT with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A basic income support grant can address extreme poverty and inequality in South Africa – economic model shows how

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Carolyn Chisadza, Associate professor, University of Pretoria

    South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. The country’s per-capita expenditure Gini coefficient, a measure of how spending from income is distributed, stands at 0.65. This puts it among countries with the most unequal distribution of spending globally.

    Nearly 55% of the population were living in poverty in 2023. The country also has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world: 33.5% in the second quarter of 2024. To compound these issues, economic growth has stagnated since 2008.

    Ending extreme poverty, unemployment and inequality requires economic growth that includes more people. To get that result, there must be a set of interventions that work together. One intervention being considered in South Africa is basic income support to relieve poverty among unemployed citizens.

    Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, basic income support had been on the policy agenda in South Africa for at least two decades, since the Taylor Committee in 2001. The pandemic made existing inequalities worse through job losses. A “social relief of distress” grant was introduced in 2020 to support the unemployed.

    The grant targeted those affected by sudden income loss, including unemployed working-age individuals who did not qualify for other grants. The introduction of the grant renewed interest in the concept of a universal basic income, or a more comprehensive form of income support. It highlighted the welfare potential for a more permanent basic income support system.

    Very few cases of universal basic income support pilots exist in developing countries. Where they do exist, studies point to the vital benefits a basic income grant system might provide. Examples include evidence from a pilot in Namibia, nine villages in India, and rural Kenya.

    In a recently published paper, a team of economists explored the possible effects of introducing permanent basic income support to:

    • all individuals aged between 18 and 59

    • only those who are unemployed

    • only unemployed individuals in extremely poor households, defined by the food poverty line.

    The economic modelling exercise demonstrates that a basic income grant targeting all individuals aged between 18 and 59 could significantly reduce poverty and inequality. These gains would, however, require carefully targeted and implemented interventions over a multi-year period.

    Our approach

    The study identifies which socio-economic groups would benefit the most from the grant, and sheds light on the impact of basic income support on the welfare and livelihoods of individuals and their households. We used market income or pre-transfer income as the starting point to see how public spending changed poverty or income inequality.

    We used data from the 2017 Quarterly Labour Force Survey, a measure of employment and unemployment based on the country’s working population. Using the three scenarios, we calculated the likely effects.

    The first scenario was based on the universal grant being paid to all those aged 18 to 59. In the second, only those aged 18-59 who were unemployed received it. Lastly, only those who lived in extremely poor households and were unemployed in 2017 were included.

    Some form of support exists for children under 18 (child grant) and for adults aged 60 and over (pension). That’s why we allocated the grant only for adults from 18 to 59.

    In all the scenarios, the income support transfer is assumed to be R595 (US$38) per individual per month in 2021, equivalent to what it cost to provide a basic basket of food (that is, the food poverty line). We use R595 as it closely aligns with the COVID social relief of distress grant extension and reflects the grant amount for the 2021/22 financial year.

    Main findings

    The main findings show that in general, a basic income support grant has the potential to reduce poverty and inequality in South Africa. However, the effect varies based on the targeting mechanism used to identify beneficiaries. Absolute poverty, its gap (the ratio by which the mean income of the poor falls below the poverty line) and income inequality fall the most when the transfer is universal or targets the unemployed and the extreme poor.

    In the first scenario (support for all individuals aged 18 to 59) and the third scenario (the unemployed and extremely poor), both poverty headcount (the percentage of the population living below the national poverty line) and the poverty gap (the ratio by which the mean income of the poor falls below the poverty line) decrease more than in the second scenario (targeting only the unemployed). The income inequality reduction is also larger in the first and third scenarios compared to the second scenario.

    Significance of findings

    The significance of these findings is that better targeting makes basic income support more pro-poor and progressive, and reduces the leakage of the benefit to the non-poor.

    In countries such as South Africa, where poverty and inequality are extensive and public resources are limited, the case for targeting is attractive. But it’s important to recognise that effective targeting entails higher administrative costs. Conversely, while a universal basic income grant may be more expensive in terms of total disbursement, it has the greatest potential to reduce poverty and overall inequality.

    The government can make the best use of its resources by focusing on vulnerable populations, such as those who are extremely poor and unemployed.

    Finding the right criteria to identify the poor, and running the grant properly, largely determines the programme’s success in improving welfare.

    Concluding remarks

    South Africa is currently saddled with high poverty and inequality. Our study brings the debate on the potential welfare benefits of expanding existing social grants back to the forefront of social policy.

    Eleni Abraham Yitbarek is affiliated with Partnership for Economic Policy (Research Fellow)

    Carolyn Chisadza, Kehinde Oluwaseun Omotoso, Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu, Nicky Nicholls, and Ramos Emmanuel Mabugu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A basic income support grant can address extreme poverty and inequality in South Africa – economic model shows how – https://theconversation.com/a-basic-income-support-grant-can-address-extreme-poverty-and-inequality-in-south-africa-economic-model-shows-how-247954

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Late counting continues in several seats, with Goldstein and Melbourne among those too close to call

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With 78% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is calling 85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats for Labor, 39 for the Coalition, zero for the Greens and 10 for all Others, with 16 still undecided. The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 94 seats, the Coalition in 41, the Greens in one and all Others in 14.

    Undecided seats can be sorted into several categories. In some seats, the Australian Electoral Commission selected the incorrect final two candidates, and is slowly redoing this count with the correct two candidates. From the small number of votes that have been realigned, the ABC has estimates of what the two candidate vote will be when all current votes in that seat are realigned.

    This category applies to Greens leader Adam Bandt’s Melbourne, and he’s currently estimated to be trailing Labor’s Sarah Witty by an estimated 2,896 votes. The ABC says the sample of votes counted so far may be skewed against Bandt.

    Other seats in this category are Labor-held Fremantle, where a teal is estimated to be ahead by just 196 votes, Labor-held Bendigo (Nationals lead Labor by an estimated 1,285 votes) and Labor-held Bean (an independent leads Labor by an estimated 206 votes).

    This election was a disaster for the Coalition, yet they are likely to gain Bendigo, which Labor won by 61.2–38.8 at the 2022 election.

    Bradfield, Goldstein and Kooyong are teal independent vs Liberal contests. The Liberals have surged on postals in all three, and Liberal Tim Wilson will regain Goldstein if the remaining postals behave like current postals. The teals look better in Bradfield and Kooyong.

    Bullwinkel, Menzies and Longman are standard two-party contests. Labor should win Menzies, and is more likely than not to win the other two, once left-leaning absent votes start being counted.

    Calwell is currently undecided because both major parties’ primary votes slumped. It’s possible that an independent could win from third or fourth by getting ahead of the Liberals then using their preferences to beat Labor.

    In Monash and Flinders, the Liberals are beating Labor, but a teal independent is close behind Labor and may move ahead of Labor after preferences from the Greens and other minor candidates. The Liberals will probably defeat the teal if these are the final two.

    Ryan and Wills are Labor vs Greens contests. In Ryan, the contest is to finish second, then beat the Liberal National Party on the other left party’s preferences. The Greens are just ahead of Labor in Ryan at the moment. Wills is a standard two-candidate contest that Labor is currently winning comfortably.

    We won’t have a national two-party result for some time

    Current national primary votes are 34.8% Labor (up 2.2% since 2022), 32.1% Coalition (down 3.6%), 11.8% Greens (down 0.4%), 6.2% One Nation (up 1.3%), 1.9% Trumpet of Patriots (down 2.3% on United Australia Pary’s 2022 vote), 7.6% independents (up 2.3%) and 5.6% others (up 0.5%).

    The Coalition does best and the Greens do worst on early postals, which have been added since election night. Absent votes need to be posted back to their home electorate before they can be counted. On these votes, the Greens do best and the Coalition does the worst.

    As the major parties’ primary votes are low, there are many seats where Labor and Coalition candidates will not be the final two. There are currently 28 “non-classic” seats, where one of the major parties did not make the final two.

    The electoral commission’s first priority is to determine which candidate has won every seat. Once this is finished, they will conduct a second count in all non-classic seats between the Labor and Coalition candidates. When all such counts are completed, we will have a final official two-party result, but this won’t happen for at least a few weeks.

    The ABC’s current estimate for the two-party vote is a Labor win by 55.0–45.0, while The Poll Bludger estimates a Labor win by 54.1–45.9. The electoral commission’s current figure of 54.7–45.3 to Labor excludes all non-classic seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Late counting continues in several seats, with Goldstein and Melbourne among those too close to call – https://theconversation.com/late-counting-continues-in-several-seats-with-goldstein-and-melbourne-among-those-too-close-to-call-255868

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pacific ‘story sovereignty’ top of mind on World Press Freedom Day

    By Michelle Curran of Pasifika TV

    World Press Freedom Day is a poignant reminder that journalists and media workers are essential for a healthy, functioning society — including the Pacific.

    Held annually on May 3, World Press Freedom Day prompts governments about the need to respect press freedom, while serving as a day of reflection among media professionals about issues of press freedom and professional ethics.

    Just as importantly, World Press Freedom Day is a day of support for media which are targets for the restraint, or abolition, of press freedom.

    It is also a day of remembrance for those journalists who lost their lives in the pursuit of a story.

    According to Reporters Without Borders, the press freedom situation has worsened in the Asia-Pacific region, where 26 of the 32 countries and territories have seen their scores fall in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index.

    The region’s dictatorial governments have been tightening their hold over news and information with increasing vigour.

    No country in the Asia-Pacific region is among the Index’s top 15 this year, with Aotearoa New Zealand falling six places to 19. [Editor’s note: these figures are outdated — from last year’s 2024 Index. Go to the 2025 index here).

    Although experiencing challenges to the right to information, other regional democracies such as Timor-Leste (20th), Samoa (22nd) and Taiwan (27th) have also retained their roles as press freedom models.

    Storytelling a vital art
    Storytelling is inherent in Pacific peoples, and it is vital this art is nurtured, and our narrative is heard loud and clear — a priority goal for Pacific Cooperation Broadcasting Limited (PCBL) and Pasifika TV.

    Chief executive officer of PCBL Natasha Meleisea says Pacific-led storytelling is critical to regional identity, but like all media around the world, it faces all sorts of challenges and issues.

    “Some of those current concerns include the need for journalism to remain independent, as well as the constructive use of technology, notably AI and that it supports the truth and does not undermine it,” Meleisea said.

    Forums such as the Pacific Media Summit are critical to addressing, and finding a collective response to the various challenges, she added.

    At the biennial Pacific Media Summit, staged last year in Niue, the theme centred around Pacific media’s navigation of press freedom, AI and geopolitical interests, and the need to pave a resilient pathway forward.

    Resilient media sector
    Meleisea said some solutions to these issues were being implemented, to provide a resilient and sustainable media sector in the Pacific.

    “It is a matter of getting creative, and looking at alternative platforms for content, as well as seeking international funding and building an infrastructure which supports these new goals,” she says.

    “There is no doubt journalists and media workers are essential for a healthy, functioning society and when done right, journalism can hold those in power to account, amplify underrepresented stories, bolster democratic ideals, and spread crucial information to the public.

    “With press freedom increasingly under threat, we must protect Pacific story sovereignty, and our voice at the table.”

    Republished from Pasifika TV strategic communications.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: a budding Trump-Albanese bromance?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    It took an election win, but Anthony Albanese on Monday finally received that much-awaited phone call from US President Donald Trump.

    The conversation was “warm and positive,” the prime minister told a news conference, thanking the president for “reaching out”.

    “I won’t go into all of the personal comments that he made, but he was very generous in his personal warmth and praise towards myself. He was fully aware of the [election] outcome and he expressed the desire to continue to work with me in the future.”

    While they talked about tariffs (as well as AUKUS), the detailed engagement on that sensitive matter was left for later.

    Trump, as they say, loves a winner.

    When asked earlier in Washington about the Australian election, Trump said he was “very friendly” with Albanese.

    “I don’t know anything about the election other than the man that won, he’s very good, he’s a friend of mine,” the president said. Albanese had been “very, very nice to me, very respectful to me.

    “I have no idea who the other person is that ran against him.” There’s more than a touch of irony in this, given all the effort by the government and his other opponents to paint Peter Dutton as “Trump-lite”.

    The prime minister is likely to meet Trump soon, perhaps in June. Albanese has been invited to the G7 meeting in Canada. Trump may or may not be there but a meeting could be arranged around this.

    On the tariff front, the government is readying to defend the local film industry, after Trump announced a 100% tariff on all movies going into the United States.

    Arts Minister Tony Burke said: “Nobody should be under any doubt that we will be standing up unequivocally for the rights of the Australian screen industry.”

    Indonesia to be Albanese’s first foreign visit of new term

    Albanese announced his first overseas visit would be to Indonesia. This will be a particularly important visit, given the significance of the bilateral relationship and the recent Russian request (which Indonesia rejected) to base planes in Papua.

    Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto congratulated Albanese on his win in a call on Sunday.

    In the call, Albanese asked the president to host his first overseas visit, and the president said it would be “a great honour” to do so.

    Meanwhile, in the next few days Labor’s factions will be jostling over the spoils of victory. The factions work out broadly the membership of the frontbench, but Albanese, given he has massive authority with the huge win, will be able to impose his will in this process where he wants to do so. The prime minister allocates the portfolios.

    Although there will be changes, Labor sources are expecting substantial continuity between the old and new ministries, especially at the higher level.

    Albanese has previously confirmed top cabinet members, notably Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Defence Minister Marles, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Trade Minister Don Farrell, will remain in their present ministries.

    Most interest is in whether Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is moved. Albanese would not say, when asked during the campaign, whether she would remain in environment although he confirmed she would stay in cabinet. Albanese and Plibersek have had a poor relationship over decades. She had expected to become education minister after the last election and was shocked to be given the environment portfolio/

    Albanese told his news conference “I want Labor to be the natural party of government”.

    Knife out for Angus Taylor

    What goes around comes around. Outgoing NSW Liberal senator Hollie Hughes, who blamed shadow treasurer
    Angus Taylor for her loss of preselection because he endorsed the candidate who beat her, has unleashed on Taylor’s leadership aspirations.

    Hughes told the ABC on Monday she would not support Taylor to be the next leader.

    She said the opposition’s economic narrative “was just completely non-existent. I’m not quite sure what [Taylor has] been doing for three years.

    “There was no tax plan, I think the economic team has significantly let down the parliamentary team, it’s let down our membership, it’s let down our supporters and it’s let down people in Australia broadly – the fact they had nothing to sell, nothing to say, and clearly had not done the work that was required.”

    She said deputy leader Sussan Ley had done “a fantastic job over the past three years and I’m hopeful that she will definitely still be part of our leadership.”

    Four names are in the mix for the successor to Peter Dutton, who lost his seat of Dickson in Saturday’s rout. They are Taylor, Ley, immigration spokesman Dan Tehan and defence spokesman Andrew Hastie. None has yet declared their candidature.

    Hastie told The West Australian at the weekend, “I certainly want to be able to drive change within the party itself and what that looks like will be up to my colleagues to determine”.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: a budding Trump-Albanese bromance? – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-a-budding-trump-albanese-bromance-255619

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In its soul-searching, Australia’s rightist coalition should examine its relationship with the media

    ANALYSIS: By Matthew Ricketson, Deakin University and Andrew Dodd, The University of Melbourne

    Among the many lessons to be learnt by Australia’s defeated Liberal-National coalition parties from the election is that they should stop getting into bed with News Corporation.

    Why would a political party outsource its policy platform and strategy to people with plenty of opinions, but no experience in actually running a government?

    The result of the federal election suggests that unlike the coalition, many Australians are ignoring the opinions of News Corp Australia’s leading journalists such as Andrew Bolt and Sharri Markson.

    Last Thursday, in her eponymous programme on Sky News Australia, Markson said:

    For the first time in my journalistic career I’m going to also offer a pre-election editorial, endorsing one side of politics […] A Dutton prime ministership would give our great nation the fresh start we deserve.

    After a vote count that sees the Labor government returned with an increased majority, Bolt wrote a piece for the Herald Sun admonishing voters:

    No, the voters aren’t always right. This time they were wrong, and this gutless and incoherent Coalition should be ashamed. Australians just voted for three more years of a Labor government that’s left this country poorer, weaker, more divided and deeper in debt, and which won only by telling astonishing lies.

    That’s staggering. If that’s what voters really like, then this country is going to get more of it, good and hard.

    The Australian and most of News’ tabloid newspapers endorsed the coalition in their election eve editorials.

    Repudiation of minor culture war
    The election result was a repudiation of the minor culture war Peter Dutton reprised during the campaign when he advised voters to steer clear of the ABC and “other hate media”. It may have felt good alluding to “leftie-woke” tropes about the ABC, but it was a tactical error.

    The message probably resonated only with rusted-on hardline coalition voters and supporters of right-wing minor parties.

    But they were either voting for the coalition, or sending them their preferences, anyway. Instead, attacking the ABC sent a signal to the people the coalition desperately needed to keep onside — the moderates who already felt disappointed by the coalition’s drift to the right and who were considering voting Teal or for another independent.

    Attacking just about the most trusted media outlet in the country simply gave those voters another reason to believe the coalition no longer represented their values.

    Reporting from the campaign bus is often derided as shallow form of election coverage. Reporters tend to be captive to a party’s agenda and don’t get to look much beyond a leader’s message.

    But there was real value in covering Dutton’s daily stunts and doorstops, often in the outer suburbs that his electoral strategy relied on winning over.

    What was revealed by having journalists on the bus was the paucity of policy substance. Details about housing affordability and petrol pricing — which voters desperately wanted to hear — were little more than sound bites.

    Steered clear of nuclear sites
    This was obvious by Dutton’s second visit to a petrol station, and yet there were another 15 to come. The fact that the campaign bus steered clear of the sites for proposed nuclear plants was also telling.

    The grind of daily coverage helped expose the lateness of policy releases, the paucity of detail and the lack of preparation for the campaign, let alone for government.

    On ABC TV’s Insiders, the Nine Newspapers’ political editor, David Crowe, wondered whether the media has been too soft on Dutton, rather than too hard as some coalition supporters might assume.

    He reckoned that if the media had asked more difficult questions months ago, Dutton might have been stress-tested and better prepared before the campaign began.

    Instead, the coalition went into the election believing it would be enough to attack Labor without presenting a fully considered alternative vision. Similarly, it would suffice to appear on friendly media outlets such as News Corp, and avoid more searching questions from the Canberra press gallery or on the ABC.

    Reporters and commentators across the media did a reasonable job of exposing this and holding the opposition to account. The scrutiny also exposed its increasingly desperate tactics late in the campaign, such as turning on Welcome to Country ceremonies.

    If many Australians appear more interested in what their prospective political leaders have to say about housing policy or climate change than the endless culture wars being waged by the coalition, that message did not appear to have been heard by Peta Credlin.

    The Sky News Australia presenter and former chief-of-staff to prime minister Tony Abbott said during Saturday night’s election coverage “I’d argue we didn’t do enough of a culture war”.

    Dr Matthew Ricketson is professor of communication, Deakin University and Andrew Dodd  is professor of journalism and director of the Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is it dangerous to kiss someone who’s eaten gluten if you have coeliac disease?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vincent Ho, Associate Professor and Clinical Academic Gastroenterologist, Western Sydney University

    Lordn/Shutterstock

    Coeliac disease is not a food allergy or intolerance. It’s an autoimmune disease that makes the body attack the small intestine if gluten (a protein found in wheat, rye and barley) reaches the gut. Even a small amount – a tiny bread crumb – can cause damage and inflammation.

    The only treatment is a gluten-free diet. This means completely eliminating foods containing the protein, such as pasta, bread, noodles and many processed products, and preparing food carefully to avoid cross-contamination.

    But what about other forms of cross-contamination? One study surveyed 538 adults with coeliac disease about their dating habits and found 39% were hesitant to kiss their partners because of the disease.

    But can gluten really be transferred this way, with a kiss? Research is only just beginning to look at this question – here’s what we know.

    How harmful is gluten for people with coeliac disease?

    Coeliac disease is common: surveys representative of the population estimate it affects one in 70 Australians. However, it tends to be under-diagnosed. Research suggests only 20% of those with coeliac disease have a medical diagnosis.

    This means most sufferers are unaware they have coeliac disease, despite experiencing unpleasant symptoms.

    When untreated, coeliac disease can stop the small intestine absorbing nutrients and lead to gut symptoms such as diarrhoea, abdominal pain, bloating and flatulence. It can also result in non-gut symptoms such as fatigue, skin rashes and brain fog.

    However, touching gluten won’t have any effect. Gluten only causes damage to people with coeliac disease if it enters the gut. This is why it can be effectively treated with a strict gluten-free diet.

    How much gluten is harmful?

    Researchers have investigated how much gluten can result in harm to people with coeliac disease. One study found some people with coeliac disease experienced damage to their small intestine with as little as 10 milligrams of gluten per day.

    For context, one slice of bread contains 2.5 grams of gluten. A very small amount can cause damage if eaten, such a tiny crumb accidentally transferred from a chopping board or plate.

    Australian researchers have determined that a dose of gluten below 3mg does not cause an immune response on very sensitive blood tests.

    Even a bread crumb can be harmful to people with coeliac disease, if it’s eaten.
    Master1305/Shutterstock

    Food regulatory authorities look at how much gluten is concentrated in particular foods to decide what is “gluten free”. In most countries a diet containing gluten at less than 20 parts per million (or 20mg per kilogram) is considered to be safe for people with coeliac disease.

    But Australia and New Zealand have much stricter requirements for labelling a food as “gluten free”. Testing methods in Australia allow for detection as low as three parts per million – this is known as the “limit of detection”. Foods below this limit contain no detectable gluten and can be labelled gluten free.

    So, what about kissing?

    What does this mean for kissing? Can enough gluten be transmitted from one person to another via saliva to cause problems? To date, there is very limited data.

    New US research presented today looked at ten couples, each with one partner who had coeliac disease.

    In the study, the non-coeliac partner ate ten crackers containing gluten before the couple kissed for ten seconds.

    The researchers found gluten transfer was minimal in the saliva. When the non-coeliac partner had a glass of water after eating the crackers, the gluten in their saliva was less than 20 parts per million (the international limit for gluten-free products).

    While this data has not yet been peer-reviewed, their preliminary finding seems to support similar research from 2022 which looked at peanut allergy and saliva to estimate gluten levels in saliva.

    It estimated that saliva after eating gluten could contain around 250 micrograms of gluten – one-twelfth of the minimum amount (3mg) believed to cause an immune response.

    This means, for people with coeliac disease, kissing should not be an issue to worry about.

    Cross-contamination from foods containing gluten is the biggest risk for people with coeliac disease.
    Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

    Other risks

    The bigger risk for people with coeliac disease continues to be exposure to gluten from food – even food labelled “gluten free”.

    One study found seven out of 256 manufactured food products sold as gluten free had detectable levels of gluten, in some cases as much as 3mg in a single serving.

    In 2018 another study found almost 10% of food sold as gluten free at cafes and restaurants across Melbourne actually contained gluten. One food sample contained a gluten concentration of more than 80 parts per million.

    Still, given Australia has strictest regulations in the world, the risk of getting sick from eating gluten-free foods is quite low.

    The risk from kissing? Even lower.

    If you want to look out for your loved one with coeliac disease, how you prepare food is more important. This includes preventing cross-contamination by storing and preparing gluten-free foods well away from foods containing gluten, and thoroughly cleaning equipment and utensils after they’ve been in contact with food containing gluten.

    And next time you’re on a date at your favourite eatery – whether they advertise as gluten free, or just have gluten-free items on the menu – it’s a good idea to politely ask about their food handling practices.

    Vincent Ho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is it dangerous to kiss someone who’s eaten gluten if you have coeliac disease? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-dangerous-to-kiss-someone-whos-eaten-gluten-if-you-have-coeliac-disease-255721

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pie in the sky? After the Coalition’s stinging loss, nuclear should be dead. Here’s why it might live on

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

    barmalini/Shutterstock

    When the Coalition launched its nuclear plan last year, Labor was on the nose and early polls showed some support for the policy. But then the wheels fell off.

    Nuclear didn’t stack up on cost or timeframe. Early support fell away. By the time of the election, support for maintaining Australia’s ban on nuclear power had increased from 51% to 59%.

    When Opposition leader Peter Dutton gave his budget reply speech in late March, he barely mentioned the nuclear policy – instead promoting gas and attacking renewables.

    After Saturday’s Coalition rout, the prospect of nuclear power in Australia should be dead and buried. But that’s not guaranteed. The National Party strongly backs nuclear power.

    With metropolitan Liberals sceptical of nuclear reduced to a rump, the Nationals and regional Liberals will gain influence within the Coalition. If conservative Nationals prevail, we may well see the nuclear policy survive the election post-mortem and be resurrected for the next election.

    Why did the Coalition back nuclear?

    In the 1990s, the Coalition introduced laws banning nuclear power in Australia. But interest in the technology has never gone away. Australia has abundant uranium, and nuclear power appeals to some demographics.

    Politically, Dutton’s choice to back nuclear power was pragmatic. There were real tensions inside the Coalition on climate action. Nuclear power seemed to offer a way past these tensions, as a zero emissions energy source providing baseload power. It would also have meant slowing the renewable rollout and building more gas power plants to cover the gap left by retiring coal.

    It appears the nuclear policy wasn’t a Dutton priority. Nationals leader David Littleproud says he and the Nationals pushed the Coalition to adopt nuclear in exchange for continued support for the 2050 net zero target. After Saturday’s wipeout in Liberal-held metropolitan seats, the Nationals will have a stronger hand.

    On Sky News yesterday, Littleproud claimed nuclear was not the reason for the Coalition’s loss. National MPs are still backing nuclear.

    If the Nationals stick to their guns, we may see the Coalition bring nuclear to the next election.

    Three-year federal terms make it difficult for new governments to embark on long term plans. Nuclear energy would take at least 15 years to come online. The Coalition’s last realistic opportunity to go nuclear would have been back in 2007, when there was renewed interest in the technology.

    At that time, renewables were quite expensive. But solar, wind and batteries now cost much less, while nuclear was already expensive and has remained so.

    Government tenders for renewable and storage projects tend to be massively oversubscribed, with far more interest than opportunities. By contrast, nuclear doesn’t have business backing. The Australian Industry Group has argued the Coalition’s nuclear policy was 20 years too late. This business reticence explains the Coalition’s proposal to build the nuclear reactors with public money.

    This year, clean energy levels in Australia’s main grid will reach 44–46%, according to the Clean Energy Regulator. With a strong pipeline of new projects, that could reach 60% by the next election. It’s hard to see what role nuclear could have in any future grid.

    Nuclear isn’t quite dead

    In contrast to intermittent renewables, nuclear offers reliable zero emissions baseload power. If you talk to nuclear backers, you’ll likely hear a variant of this sentence.

    But there’s “no going back” to the old baseload model where large, inflexible coal plants churned out power, as the head of the Australian Energy Market Operator Daniel Westerman pointed out last week. That’s because renewables are the cheapest energy source. Powering Australia on 100% renewables is possible with enough battery storage or pumped hydro to compensate for the solar duck curve, in which solar power drops off in the evening.

    So why does nuclear have a hold on the Coalition’s imagination, even as it faces its largest crisis since Menzies founded the Liberal Party?

    One likely reason is cultural opposition to renewables. This is especially evident among prominent Nationals such as Littleproud, Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce. As the thinking presumably goes, if “latte-sipping greens” in inner city areas back renewables, genuine country Australians should naturally oppose them.

    It is, of course, not that simple. Renewables are often just as popular in the bush as in the cities. A Lowy Institute poll found almost two-thirds of regional respondents supported the government’s 82% renewable target for 2030. Farmers hosting solar panels or wind turbines energy generation on their properties see them as guaranteed income even if livestock or grains are having a bad year.

    The problem for the Nationals and for the Coalition more broadly is that nuclear just isn’t that popular. Early support for the policy was soft. It melted away as authoritative sources such as the CSIRO pointed to the exorbitant cost and long timeframe to build reactors from scratch.

    Labor, with a resounding majority, is likely to accelerate the shift to clean energy. While the urban-rural political divide will still play out in Coalition opposition to clean energy, Labor’s large electoral mandate and dominance in the populous cities will encourage it to press ahead.

    As the surviving members of the Coalition lick their wounds and begin to figure out how they did so badly, we can expect to see nuclear up for discussion. But given the new power of the Nationals and regional Liberals in the party room, we may not have seen the last of nuclear fantasies in Australia.

    Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pie in the sky? After the Coalition’s stinging loss, nuclear should be dead. Here’s why it might live on – https://theconversation.com/pie-in-the-sky-after-the-coalitions-stinging-loss-nuclear-should-be-dead-heres-why-it-might-live-on-255866

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 5 huge climate opportunities await the next parliament – and it has the numbers to deliver

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Skarbek, Climateworks CEO, Monash University

    Australians have returned an expanded Labor Party to government alongside a suite of climate-progressive independents. Meanwhile, the Coalition – which promoted nuclear energy and a slower renewables transition – suffered a historic defeat.

    Labor also looks set to have increased numbers in the Senate, where the Greens are likely to hold the balance of power.

    These numbers mean support for progressive climate and energy policy in Australia’s 48th parliament is shaping as stronger than the last. So what does this mean as Australia seeks to position itself as a leader in the global net zero economy?

    In its first term in government, Labor laid the groundwork for stronger climate action, including legislating an emissions-reduction target and putting crucial policies and organisations in place. The next parliament will be well-placed to build on these foundations. Here, we explain where key opportunities lie.

    1. National emissions target for 2035

    By September this year, all signatories to the global Paris Agreement must set emissions reduction targets out to 2035.

    Labor is waiting on advice from the Climate Change Authority before setting its target. The authority’s initial advice last year suggested a target between 65% and 75%, based on 2005 levels.

    Some countries have already set their targets. The United Kingdom, for example, will aim for a reduction of at least 81% by 2035, based on 1990 levels.

    2. A firm plan for net-zero

    Australia has committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Getting there will require innovation and investment across the economy. In the last term of government, Labor began
    developing net-zero plans for each economic sector. They comprise energy, transport, industry, resources, the built environment, and agriculture and land.

    The plans are due to be finalised this year. They will act as a tangible map for Australia to meet both net zero and the 2035 emissions-reduction target, and are keenly awaited by state governments, industry and investors.

    This policy area presents the broadest opportunity for the crossbench to exert influence for greater ambition, scale and pace. Neither the 2035 target nor the sector plans need to go through parliament – however they could feature in broader parliamentary negotiations.

    Separately, the Safeguard Mechanism will be reviewed in 2027, during this parliament. The policy aims to reduce emissions reductions from Australia’s biggest greenhouse-gas polluters. It is key to reaching net zero in Australia’s industrial sector, and an important moment to ensure the policy reduces emissions at the rate needed.

    3. Bidding to host COP31

    Australia is bidding to host next year’s United Nations global climate talks, or COP, in partnership with Pacific Island nations. The bid was opposed by the Coalition.

    A decision on the COP host is expected in June. If Australia succeeds, the federal government will seek to use the high-profile global gathering to showcase its climate credentials – and there will be high expectations from Pacific co-hosts. So all policy between now and then really matters.

    4. An energy system to make Australia thrive

    Energy produces about 70% of Australia’s emissions. Tackling this means reducing emissions from electricity through renewable generation. Elsewhere in the economy, it means switching from gas, petrol and diesel to clean electricity.

    The government’s plan to reach 82% renewable energy by 2030 remains crucial. Australia’s electricity system is expected to reach around 50% renewable energy this year. But there is more work to do.

    A review of the National Electricity Market is due this year. It is expected to recommend ways to promote greater investment in renewable generation and storage. This includes what policy might follow the Capacity Investment Scheme, a measure to boost renewables investment which will be rolled out by 2027.

    Faster action on the renewable shift can also be achieved through the Australian Energy Market Operator’s next Integrated System Plan – the nation’s roadmap for guiding energy infrastructure and investment.

    Labor also has scope to improve energy efficiency, and better match energy demand and supply – especially at times of peak energy use. The government’s commitments to subsidise home batteries, and expand the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, will help achieve this. The crossbench, including the Greens, is likely to seek greater investments to reduce household energy use and costs.

    Beyond this, Australia’s electricity grid needs to be double the size of what’s currently planned, to power the entire economy with clean energy.

    5. Leverage clean energy export advantages

    Australia generates about a quarter of its GDP from exports – many of them emissions-intensive such as fossil fuels, minerals and agricultural products.

    In his election victory speech, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese urged Australia to seize the moment at a time of global economic disruption. Key to this will be building on the Future Made in Australia agenda and ensuring Australia makes the most of its competitive advantages as the world transitions to net-zero.

    This will include:

    • leveraging a strong reputation as a reliable trade partner
    • capitalising on our world-leading solar and wind energy resources to produce low-emissions goods for export
    • developing the industry around critical minerals and rare earths needed in low-emissions technologies
    • helping metals and minerals sectors achieve net-zero emissions pathways.

    This will be central to trade negotiations in the years to come. Realising Australia’s green exports aspiration requires action abroad as well as at home.

    A game-changing decade

    This decade is crucial to Australia’s future economy, and to the success of Australia’s long-term transition to net zero emissions. Our work has shown Australia can slash emissions while the economy grows.

    The question now is how quickly the re-elected government – indeed, the next parliament – can realise Australia’s ambition as a renewable energy superpower.

    The next three years will provide vital opportunities and they must be seized – for the sake of our energy bills, our economic prosperity and Australia’s reputation on the world stage.

    Anna Skarbek is on the board of the Net Zero Economy Authority, SEC Victoria, the Centre for New Energy Technologies, the Green Building Council of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Advisory Board of the Glasgow Financial Alliance on Net Zero. She is CEO of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute.

    Climateworks Centre is a part of Monash University. It receives funding from a range of external sources including philanthropy, governments and businesses. Businesses such as mining companies and industry associations have previously co-funded Climateworks’ research on industrial decarbonisation, and may benefit from policies mentioned in this article.

    – ref. 5 huge climate opportunities await the next parliament – and it has the numbers to deliver – https://theconversation.com/5-huge-climate-opportunities-await-the-next-parliament-and-it-has-the-numbers-to-deliver-255772

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: After its landslide win, Labor should have courage and confidence on security – and our alliance with the US

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Wallis, Professor of International Security, University of Adelaide

    The re-election of the Albanese Labor government by such a wide margin should not mean “business as usual” for Australia’s security policy.

    The global uncertainty instigated by US President Donald Trump means Australia’s security landscape is very different today from when Labor was first elected in 2022, or even when its Defence Strategic Review was released in 2023.

    As we argue in our recent book, the Albanese government faces increasingly difficult questions.

    How can we maintain our crucial security alliance with the US while deepening partnerships with other countries that have reservations about US policy?

    And, given Trump’s recent actions, how much can we continue to rely on the United States and what are the potential costs of the alliance?

    With a massive parliamentary majority, the new government has an opportunity for bold thinking on national security. This is not the time for Australia to keep its head down – we need to face the rapidly changing world with our heads held high.



    Read more:
    Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton

    Trump 2.0 is not the same as 1.0

    We do not advocate Australia step away from the US alliance. We are also realistic that decades of defence procurement mean Australia is heavily reliant on US defence materiel (and its subsequent sustainment) for our security.

    The deep interoperability between the Australian Defence Force and the US military is something alliance sceptics too readily gloss over: much Australian military capability cannot function without ongoing American support.

    At the same time, many alliance advocates underestimate the impact of the new challenges we face. Some assumed a continuity between the first and second Trump administrations. However, we are not convinced the lessons learned from Trump 1.0 are still valid.

    A key difference between Trump 1.0 and 2.0 is the effect of his move away from respecting international law.

    For example, the US has voted with Russia against UN Security Council resolutions condemning the Ukraine war, withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization, and damaged relations with NATO allies, among many other actions.

    As a middle power, Australia has long relied on the “rules-based order” to advance its foreign and strategic policy interests.

    Even if “normal transmission” resumes under a new US president in 2029, we are concerned the Trump administration’s structural changes to the international order will not easily be wound back. American soft power has been decimated by cuts to the US State Department, USAID and international broadcasting services. This will also not be rebuilt quickly.

    A second difference is there are few “adults left in the room” in the Trump administration.

    The advisers who kept Trump in check during his first administration have been replaced by loyalists less likely to push back against his ideas and impulses. This includes his long-held grievance that allies have been exploiting the US.

    The Albanese government needs to think more deeply about how to hedge against dependence on the US. This means investing in relations with other partners, especially in Asia and the Pacific, and working with them to promote the laws, rules and norms that maintain stability and predictability in global affairs.

    An idealistic vision for the future

    We are also concerned that many in the national security community base their policy recommendations on the assumption that war between the US and China is inevitable, and such a conflict could draw in Australia as America’s ally.

    Rather, the Trump administration’s preference for “deals” opens the possibility the US and China might come to an arrangement that will affect US presence and leadership in our region.

    Australia may not be prepared for this. The new government must engage in more open discussion about how we would maintain our security if the US does pull back from the region or makes decisions Australians don’t support.

    As a start, we need to consider how Australia can better pursue self-reliance within the alliance structure. We need a range of strategic options in the future that don’t rely on an outdated image of the US as a reliable partner.

    This debate should be guided by what we call “pragmatic idealism”.

    Rather than accepting the way things are, the government and members of the national security community need to re-imagine how things can be.

    We argue the Albanese government should draw confidence from its thumping electoral win to articulate a politics of hope, opportunity and possibility for our future security. This needs to drown out the cynicism, passive acceptance and learned helplessness that often characterises Australian national security debates.

    We are conscious that being “idealistic” is often dismissed as impractical, naïve “wishful thinking”. But the new government needs to demonstrate to Australians it has the courage to face the diverse, interlinked and complex security challenges we face – potentially on our own. These extend to issues such as cyber attacks, transnational crime and climate change.

    Practical steps

    As a first step, the Albanese government urgently needs to commission an integrated National Security Strategy that considers all the tools of statecraft Australia can use to respond to these challenges.

    This means engaging more with partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. In particular, Australia should consider investing more heavily in information programs and public diplomacy as the US withdraws from this arena.

    The government must also engage better with the public and be more transparent about its security options and decisions.

    On AUKUS, for instance, the government must build its “social licence” from the public to sustain such a massive deal across generations. Australians need to be better informed about – and consulted on – the decisions they will ultimately pay for.

    This also includes being upfront with Australians about the need for greater defence spending in a tumultuous world.

    It is understandably tempting for the new Albanese government to continue a “small target” approach when it comes to the US. This has meant minimising domestic debate about the alliance that could undermine support for AUKUS and avoid risking the ire of a thin-skinned Trump.

    But the government needs the courage to ask difficult questions and imagine different futures.

    Joanne Wallis receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Department of Defence, and the government of South Australia. She is a Senior Nonresident Fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

    Rebecca Strating receives funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    – ref. After its landslide win, Labor should have courage and confidence on security – and our alliance with the US – https://theconversation.com/after-its-landslide-win-labor-should-have-courage-and-confidence-on-security-and-our-alliance-with-the-us-255598

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A rubbish election: voting in Australia produces mountains of waste – but there’s a better way

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

    More than 18 million Australians voted on Saturday, after walking past countless corflutes, reading campaign flyers and reviewing how-to-vote cards.

    The 2025 federal election was Australia’s biggest yet, with 710,000 more people on the electoral roll than in 2022. The Australian Election Commission amassed 250,000 pencils, 240,000 vests, 80,000 ballot boxes and 5,000 rolls of tamper-proof tape to stock some 7,000 polling places.

    So, what happens to these materials after polling day? Some are warehoused, ready for reuse next time around. Others are repurposed. But every election also generates a mountain of waste for landfill.

    It doesn’t have to be this way. Australia needs to mandate a cradle-to-grave approach to creating, using, recycling and disposing of election materials. Meanwhile, electronic machines and online voting can reduce the need for paper ballots, just as social media campaigns can reduce paper mail drops.

    Magill School in the Sturt electorate, like most polling centres, was wrapped in lightweight plastic posters.
    Clare Peddie

    Where do election materials go after the polls close?

    In response to inquiries from The Conversation, the Australian Election Commission said most AEC materials, such as tamper-proof tape, vests and pencils, are stored between elections at counting centres. Other materials, such as cardboard voting booths, are recycled or donated to schools or charities.

    Most councils require corflutes to be collected within seven days of an election. But no rules govern reuse or disposal. Corflutes are made from polypropylene, a lightweight plastic that is technically recyclable. But it’s not a straightforward process, so most recycling facilities reportedly cannot accept this waste.

    Some candidates donate corflutes to schools, childcare centres and charities, because the white reverse side can be used to mount artworks.

    Second-hand corflutes have also been used as shelters for homeless people, heat shields for bee hives, or to repair damaged skylights. But no doubt many end up in landfill.

    Are there alternatives?

    Many countries are “greening” their elections. In 2019, India’s election commission directed parties to eliminate single-use plastic including corflutes. In 2024, the United Kingdom’s Westminster Foundation for Democracy outlined strategies for reducing election “pollution”, addressing supply chains and packaging.

    Australia relies heavily on disposable election materials. While many of these can be recycled, it’s better to avoid single-use materials.

    Parties could also display how-to-vote instructions on posters at election sites, rather than handing out individual flyers that are recycled or thrown away.

    In 2022, the AEC introduced plain brown cardboard screens and ballot boxes, saying they are easier to recycle and reuse than previous versions “wrapped” in purple-and-white branded paper. However, Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers says elections will probably always be “highly manual and resource-intensive exercises”. We disagree.

    Could Australia use electronic or online voting to reduce waste?

    Other countries are introducing online voting to reduce waste. One study in Estonia found the carbon footprint of paper-based voting was 180 times greater than internet-based voting. More than 50% of the population voted online in 2023.

    India introduced electronic voting machines in 1982 and mandated them, nationwide, in 2004. In 1999 alone this saved 7,700 tonnes of waste.

    The United States introduced mechanical voting machines in the 1890s, punch cards and scanned ballots in the 1960s, and “direct-recording” electronic voting machines in the 1970s. Today, touch screens are used in many voting booths, with paper records for auditing. Now just 7% of districts rely on paper ballots and hand-counted ballots are rarely used.

    Yet electronic voting machines are not without controversy. Security concerns after the 2016 US election resulted in 94% of districts shifting to optical scanning, and use of “direct-recording” electronic voting machines almost halved.

    Ireland invested €50 million (A$88 million) into electronic voting machines in 2002, but they were never used due to concerns about potential tampering.

    Australia should explore secure options for electronic voting machines and online voting. In its response to The Conversation, the AEC said this would be a matter for parliament to consider, because the law currently demands that elections are in-person events.

    Can social media campaigning help?

    Social media enables candidates and voters to engage in new ways. For instance, Labor senators Katy Gallagher and Penny Wong took part in a Facebook “pop quiz” on April 29, which had 55,000 views. But social media can amplify misinformation, so consumers need to fact-check what they see and hear online.

    Combined, the parties and affiliated groups spent more than A$39 million on advertisements on YouTube, Facebook and Google during the 2025 campaign. The AEC had to update its authorisation guidelines to cover podcasters and other content creators.

    This mirrors global shifts towards social media campaigning. During Canada’s 2025 campaign, Liberal leader Mark Carney (who went on to be elected prime minister) created a video with celebrity Mike Myers, reaching 10 million views.

    While such creative approaches may engage voters, they still carry a carbon footprint. Carney and Myers’ video likely produced about six tonnes of CO₂ emissions due to the energy and electricity used in production, streaming and viewing.

    Mike Myers and Mark Carney used social media creatively in Canada’s 2025 election campaign.

    Text messages also connect candidates with voters. Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party sent 17 million texts the election campaign. This equates to 240kg of CO₂ emissions from energy-hungry data centres and personal devices.

    This is less than the emissions the average Australian produces in a week. However, the unsolicited texts riled many voters, many concerned about privacy and who wanted to opt out.

    What’s the solution?

    Australia should mandate a reduction in the disposal of election materials.

    Some print materials may always be needed, because not all voters can access digital content or vote online. But the current situation is unsustainable.

    Global experiences show innovation is possible. Australia can reduce its reliance on new, physical materials, while maintaining public trust.

    Australia’s newly elected officials have an opportunity to green future elections, adopting a more sophisticated approach to voting in a digital age. There’s no excuse for producing mountains of plastic and paper waste every three or four years. Our nation deserves better.

    Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and the Association for Information Science and Technology.

    Gary Rosengarten receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Renewable Affordable Clean Energy for 2030 CRC, and is a non-executive board member of the Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity.

    Matt Duckham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A rubbish election: voting in Australia produces mountains of waste – but there’s a better way – https://theconversation.com/a-rubbish-election-voting-in-australia-produces-mountains-of-waste-but-theres-a-better-way-255780

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tailoring and the Black dandy: how 250 years of Black fashion history inspired the 2025 Met Gala

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Slade, Associate Professor of Fashion, University of Technology Sydney

    Portrait of a Man, c. 1855 National Gallery of Art

    Fashion is one of the most powerful tools we have for understanding ourselves and the world around us. Nowhere is this clearer than in the story of Black American tailoring and the legacy of the Black dandy.

    Inspired by scholar Monica L. Miller’s groundbreaking book Slaves to Fashion: Black Dandyism and the Styling of Black Diasporic Identity, the theme of The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Costume Institute spring 2025 show is Superfine: Tailoring Black Style.

    The exhibition charts the evolution of the Black dandy from the 18th century to today. The story it tells is about more than suits. It’s about power, pride, resistance and joy.

    Each year, the Met Gala takes its dress code from the institue’s spring exhibition. This year’s is “Tailored for You”. So who is the Black dandy, why are they so important to fashion today, and what can we expect to see on the red carpet?

    The birth of the Black Dandy

    “Black dandy” is a modern term. Figures like American abolitionist Frederick Douglass (1818–95) or Haitian revolutionary leader Toussaint Louverture (1743–1803) would not have called themselves dandies, but they used style with similar effect: as a tool of resistance, self-fashioning and cultural pride.

    Toussaint Louverture was a leader during the widespread uprisings of enslaved people in Saint-Domingue (now Haiti) in 1791. This image was drawn in 1802.
    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    French poet Charles Baudelaire (1821–67) first wrote about dandies in 1863, describing them as individuals who elevate style to a form of personal and aesthetic resistance.

    Baudelaire’s dandy was not just stylish but symbolic. He was an emblem of modernity itself: a time marked by fluid identities, liminal spaces and the collapse of clear boundaries between gender, authenticity and social order.

    Dandyism among Black men took root in the 18th and 19th centuries in both the United States and the Caribbean. Tailoring became a way to reclaim dignity under enslavement and colonialism.

    Dandies take the clothing of an oppressor – aristocratic, colonial, segregationist or otherwise – and turn it into a weapon of elegance. Through meticulous style and refinement, dandies make a silent yet striking claim to moral superiority.

    Frederick Douglass was born into slavery, and freed in 1838. This photograph shows him in 1855.
    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    Douglass famously appeared in immaculate Victorian suits when campaigning for abolition, consciously dressing in the same style as those who denied his freedom.

    Louverture used perfectly tailored French military uniforms during the Haitian Revolution against French colonial rule.

    In the 1920s, Harlem dandies wore fine tailoring and flamboyant colours, rejecting the idea that poverty or discrimination should dictate presentation.

    In perfectly tied cravats, polished shoes and sharply tailored coats, Black dandies refashion power on their own terms.

    Presence through style

    Dandies also challenge the narrow rules of masculinity.

    Conventional menswear often demands restraint, toughness and invisibility. Dandies dare to embrace beauty, self-adornment and performance. This masculinity can be expressive, creative and even flamboyant.

    The luxurious silk suits and carefully groomed appearance of American Jazz pioneer Duke Ellington (1899–1974) projected glamour rather than austerity.

    The elegantly tailored overcoats and scarves of American poet Langston Hughes (1901–67) suggested a masculinity deeply entwined with creativity and softness.

    Figures in Harlem’s ballrooms and jazz clubs blurred gender boundaries decades before mainstream conversations about gender fluidity emerged.

    A street scene in Harlem, New York City, photographed in 1943.
    Library of Congress

    A tradition of Black tailoring

    In a world where Black self-presentation has long been scrutinised and politicised, tailored clothing asserted visibility, authority and artistry. Dandies transformed fashion into a political declaration of dignity, resistance and creative power.

    Black American tailoring practices blossomed most visibly in the zoot suits of the Harlem Renaissance, though they also had strong roots in New Orleans, Chicago and the Caribbean.

    As seen in the Sunday Best of the Civil Rights era, Black tailoring walked the line between resistance and celebration: beautiful but with clear political intent.

    In the 1970s, the Black dandy became more flamboyant, wearing tight, colourful clothes with bold accessories. He transformed traditional suits with exaggerated shapes, bright patterns and plaids inspired by African heritage.

    Artists popular with a white audience like Sammy Davis Jr (1925–90), Miles Davis (1926–91) and James Brown (1933–2006) embraced the aesthetic, contributing to its widespread acceptance.

    Sammy Davis Jr with his first European gold record, 1976.
    Nationaal Archief, CC BY

    Meanwhile, a super stylish contingent of Black men in the Congo, La Sapeur, refined their look so spectacularly they would become the benchmark of the Black dandy for generations to come.

    The 1990s saw a new era of Black dandyism emerge through luxury sportswear and hip-hop aesthetics.

    Designer Dapper Dan (1944–) revolutionised fashion by remixing luxury logos into bold, custom streetwear, creating a distinctive Black aesthetic that bridged hip-hop culture and high fashion.

    Musician Andre 3000 (1975–) redefined menswear by blending Southern Black style with bold colour, vintage tailoring and theatrical flair.

    Today, the tradition thrives in the style of influencer Wisdom Kaye, the elegance of LeBron James, and the risk-taking of Lewis Hamilton.

    Dressing for the red carpet

    Tailored for You invites guests to interpret the dandy’s legacy in personal, bold and boundary-pushing ways.

    Whether conforming to tradition, subverting expectations or creating something entirely new, this theme is a celebration of the freedom to dress – and be – on your own terms.

    The Black dandy is a figure of defiance and desire, of ambiguity and brilliance, of resistance and beauty. Dandyism blurs boundaries between masculinity and femininity, artifice and authenticity, conformity and rebellion. It unsettles fixed identities and reflects broader tensions within modern life.

    The poet and activist Countee Cullen, as depicted by Winold Reiss around 1925.
    National Portrait Gallery

    Black dandies have shocked, amused, offended, delighted and inspired society since their inception. In the sharp defiance of Douglass’ Victorian suits, the flamboyant spectacle of Harlem ballrooms, and the logo-laced rebellion of Dapper Dan’s streetwear, the Black dandy has continually forced the world to reckon with the politics of presence, pride and performance.

    Despite being overlooked by mainstream fashion history, they’ve shaped the way we see elegance, masculinity and self-expression. This Met Gala and the accompanying exhibition are not just a celebration – they are a long-overdue recognition.

    Dijanna Mulhearn receives funding from Australian Government Research Training Stipend.

    Toby Slade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tailoring and the Black dandy: how 250 years of Black fashion history inspired the 2025 Met Gala – https://theconversation.com/tailoring-and-the-black-dandy-how-250-years-of-black-fashion-history-inspired-the-2025-met-gala-250650

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia can no longer take a ‘business as usual’ approach to the US. On security, it’s time for courage and confidence

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Wallis, Professor of International Security, University of Adelaide

    The re-election of the Albanese Labor government by such a wide margin should not mean “business as usual” for Australia’s security policy.

    The global uncertainty instigated by US President Donald Trump means Australia’s security landscape is very different today from when Labor was first elected in 2022, or even when its Defence Strategic Review was released in 2023.

    As we argue in our recent book, the Albanese government faces increasingly difficult questions.

    How can we maintain our critical security alliance with the US while deepening partnerships with other countries that have reservations about US policy?

    And, given Trump’s recent actions, how much can we continue to rely on the United States and what are the potential costs of the alliance?

    With a massive parliamentary majority, the new government has an opportunity for bold thinking on national security. This is not the time for Australia to keep its head down – we need to face the rapidly changing world with our heads held high.



    Read more:
    Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton

    Trump 2.0 is not the same as 1.0

    We do not advocate Australia step away from the US alliance. We are also realistic that decades of defence procurement mean Australia is heavily reliant on US defence materiel (and its subsequent sustainment) for our security.

    The deep interoperability between the Australian Defence Force and the US military is something alliance sceptics too readily gloss over: much Australian military capability cannot function without ongoing American support.

    At the same time, many alliance advocates underestimate the impact of the new challenges we face. Some assumed a continuity between the first and second Trump administrations. However, we are not convinced the lessons learned from Trump 1.0 are still valid.

    A key difference between Trump 1.0 and 2.0 is the effect of his move away from respecting international law.

    For example, the US has voted with Russia against UN Security Council resolutions condemning the Ukraine war, withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization, and damaged relations with NATO allies, among many other actions.

    As a middle power, Australia has long relied on the “rules-based order” to advance its foreign and strategic policy interests.

    Even if “normal transmission” resumes under a new US president in 2029, we are concerned the Trump administration’s structural changes to the international order will not easily be wound back. American soft power has been decimated by cuts to the US State Department, USAID and international broadcasting services. This will also not be rebuilt quickly.

    A second difference is there are few “adults left in the room” in the Trump administration.

    The advisers who kept Trump in check during his first administration have been replaced by loyalists less likely to push back against his ideas and impulses. This includes his long-held grievance that allies have been exploiting the US.

    The Albanese government needs to think more deeply about how to hedge against dependence on the US. This means investing in relations with other partners, especially in Asia and the Pacific, and working with them to promote the laws, rules and norms that maintain stability and predictability in global affairs.

    An idealistic vision for the future

    We are also concerned that many in the national security community base their policy recommendations on the assumption that war between the US and China is inevitable, and such a conflict could draw in Australia as America’s ally.

    Rather, the Trump administration’s preference for “deals” opens the possibility the US and China might come to an arrangement that will affect US presence and leadership in our region.

    Australia may not be prepared for this. The new government must engage in more open discussion about how we would maintain our security if the US does pull back from the region or makes decisions Australians don’t support.

    As a start, we need to consider how Australia can better pursue self-reliance within the alliance structure. We need a range of strategic options in the future that don’t rely on an outdated image of the US as a reliable partner.

    This debate should be guided by what we call “pragmatic idealism”.

    Rather than accepting the way things are, the government and members of the national security community need to re-imagine how things can be.

    We argue the Albanese government should draw confidence from its thumping electoral win to articulate a politics of hope, opportunity and possibility for our future security. This needs to drown out the cynicism, passive acceptance and learned helplessness that often characterises Australian national security debates.

    We are conscious that being “idealistic” is often dismissed as impractical, naïve “wishful thinking”. But the new government needs to demonstrate to Australians it has the courage to face the diverse, interlinked and complex security challenges we face – potentially on our own. These extend to issues such as cyber attacks, transnational crime and climate change.

    Practical steps

    As a first step, the Albanese government urgently needs to commission an integrated National Security Strategy that considers all the tools of statecraft Australia can use to respond to these challenges.

    This means engaging more with partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. In particular, Australia should consider investing more heavily in information programs and public diplomacy as the US withdraws from this arena.

    The government must also engage better with the public and be more transparent about its security options and decisions.

    On AUKUS, for instance, the government must build its “social licence” from the public to sustain such a massive deal across generations. Australians need to be better informed about – and consulted on – the decisions they will ultimately pay for.

    This also includes being upfront with Australians about the need for greater defence spending in a tumultuous world.

    It is understandably tempting for the new Albanese government to continue a “small target” when it comes to the US. This has meant minimising domestic debate about the alliance that could undermine support for AUKUS and avoid risking the ire of a thin-skinned Trump.

    But the government needs the courage to ask difficult questions and imagine different futures.

    Joanne Wallis receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Department of Defence, and the government of South Australia. She is a Senior Nonresident Fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

    Rebecca Strating receives funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    – ref. Australia can no longer take a ‘business as usual’ approach to the US. On security, it’s time for courage and confidence – https://theconversation.com/australia-can-no-longer-take-a-business-as-usual-approach-to-the-us-on-security-its-time-for-courage-and-confidence-255598

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Thought the election campaign was boring? Maybe you’re just not on TikTok

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Grantham, Lecturer in Communication, Griffith University

    This year’s election campaign marked a turning point in Australian politics. TikTok has emerged not just as another tool, but as a main battleground.

    Although it played a part in the 2022 election, this was the first time the two major parties and the Greens embraced short-form video as a serious campaign strategy.

    These videos may seem silly or nonsensical, but for many Gen Z voters, they may have been the only political messages they encountered in the entire five-week campaign. Given the dominance of Gen Z and Millennial voters, social media videos are increasingly important.

    A blend of trends, podcasts and thirst traps

    The Australian Labor Party’s campaign leaned heavily into TikTok culture, crafting a multi-pronged strategy to reach younger voters where they scroll. This included meme engagement like this absurdist #italianbrainrot trend.

    #brainrot refers to deliberately absurd, low-effort videos that thrive on chaos and nonsensical repetition.

    It’s an existing TikTok trend that started in early 2025 and is designed to capture attention in an oversaturated feed. In other words, don’t try to understand, just watch and enjoy.

    Another standout is a now-viral video of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese edited with the stylistic flair typical of TikTok “thirst trap” content. The editing style and music choice are both characteristic of this sub-genre of video designed to make the subject appear attractive.

    It walked a fine line between irony and sincerity: an intentional nod to the platform’s unique language and humour. While some lapped it up as clever, others question whether such tactics undermine the seriousness of politics.

    Labor also heavily invested in podcasting, with Albanese appearing on youth-oriented shows with the likes of Abbie Chatfield and Ozzy Man. These long-form interviews were mostly promoted by the podcasters themselves, which was a clever use of their existing audiences. It contributed to a strategy that prioritised personality as much as policy.

    Combined with a coordinated influencer outreach, including briefings with popular creators, Labor’s campaign showed a keen understanding of the algorithmic economy. Whether it was cringey or clever, it was undeniably calculated.

    Trendsetters with turbulence

    The Liberal Party started its TikTok campaigning back in December 2024. These early videos, many AI-generated, saw remarkable traction. The highest-viewed video, an AI voice-change take on a scene from “The Grinch”, has been viewed 2.8 million times.

    Then came “Tim Cheese”, a trending fictional character they used to blur the lines in political storytelling. A “bad guy”, Tim Cheese was used by the Liberals to highlight that the known bad guys aren’t always bad.

    One standout video was the introduction of “Cheesy Albanese”, which merged political satire with platform-native humour that resonated with the audience.

    The Liberals also tapped into trending sounds and aesthetics such as #brainrot and #italianbrainrot. In fairness, they were the first to use it before the official campaign started.

    But with any innovative campaign comes risk.

    A notable misstep was the repurposing of influencer content, including that of Holly MacAlpine.

    Topham Guerin, the strategy company behind the campaign, has a reputation for provocative approaches that can come close to, but don’t actually break, the law. However, this use of content did wear thin for some followers, sparking early signs of disengagement.

    The campaign’s second major stumble came on election day.

    US-based TikTok creator Ray William Johnson, who has more than 18.5 million followers, called out the Liberals for blocking his account when they clearly used his video and animation style.

    Johnson said he had no issue with the mimicry, but the party’s pre-emptive blocking of him fuelled backlash. His response video, now seen more than 12 million times, ends with a blunt directive: “I hope everyone goes out and votes for the other guy.”

    It was a viral moment that undid much of the earlier momentum, and demonstrates the high stakes of campaigning in the age of creator culture.

    Despite a clever response video from the Liberals, it was overshadowed by the sheer scale of the backlash.

    With these lows there was still highs, including a highly effective and trending video game that saw players “Escape Albo”.

    The Liberals were early trendsetters, creating boundary-pushing content for all users, even those without strong political views. They experimented with styles that went on to be mimicked, particularly with Labor’s #brainrot-inspired content.

    Greens go from giant toothbrushes to DJ sets

    In a bid to connect with the gaming community, Tasmanian Senator Nick McKim took to livestreaming sessions of the popular game Fortnite. Donning comfortable clothes and a headset, McKim engaged viewers with gaming lingo and humour, aiming to make politics more relatable to younger audiences.

    These videos were a huge success, with this one being viewed 1.4 million times.

    A central feature of the Greens social media campaign was the deployment of a giant toothbrush prop, symbolising the party’s commitment to integrating dental care into Medicare. It featured across various platforms and was a nice link to events in Brisbane and Melbourne.

    These events featured the support of big-name influencers and prompted spinoff videos launching Greens Leader Adam Bandt’s DJ career.

    But despite the flashy props, influencer cameos and party vibes, the Greens’ campaign often felt more like a collection of stunts than a cohesive digital strategy: memorable in moments, but ultimately lacking impact.

    Did it make any difference?

    While many labelled the 2025 election dull, the TikTok campaign told a different story. It was unpredictable, occasionally “cringe”, but deeply entertaining.

    It’s too soon to know if any of this shifted votes or even opinions. Party officials, campaign strategists and academics will all be watching closely to find out.

    While social media is ubiquitous in our lives, using it to campaign is still relatively new in our political history. There are no best-practice guidelines or proven approaches. Of all this content thrown at the wall, it will be fascinating to see what sticks.

    But to the millions of Australians on TikTok, politics has never looked or sounded quite like it did in 2025.

    Susan Grantham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Thought the election campaign was boring? Maybe you’re just not on TikTok – https://theconversation.com/thought-the-election-campaign-was-boring-maybe-youre-just-not-on-tiktok-255847

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for May 5, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on May 5, 2025.

    Trump’s push on deep sea mining leaves Nauru’s commercial ambitions ‘out in cold’
    By Teuila Fuatai, RNZ Pacific senior journalist Nauru’s ambition to commercially mine the seabed is likely at risk following President Donald Trump’s executive order last month aimed at fast-tracking ocean mining, anti-deep sea mining advocates warn. The order also increases instability in the Pacific region because it effectively circumvents long-standing international sea laws and processes

    A ‘Trump slump’ has lifted the left in Canada and now Australia – what are the lessons for NZ?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Duncan, Teaching Fellow in Politics and International Relations, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Trying to capitalise on the electoral success of US President Donald Trump, now that his policies are having real-world effects, is proving to be a big mistake for conservative leaders. Australian voters

    What is a ‘smart city’ and why should we care? It’s not just a buzzword
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne guitar photographer/Shutterstock More than half of the world’s population currently lives in cities and this share is expected to rise to nearly 70% by 2050. It’s no wonder “smart cities” have

    We talk a lot about being ‘resilient’. But what does it actually mean?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter McEvoy, Professor of Clinical Psychology, Curtin University Kinga Howard/Unsplash In a world with political polarisation, war, extreme weather events and increasing costs of living, we need to be able to cope as individuals and communities. Our capacity to cope with very real stressors in our lives

    Newly discovered tropical oyster reefs are thriving across northern Australia – they deserve protection
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marina Richardson, Research Fellow in Marine Science, Griffith University Marina Richardson Oysters are so much more than a seafood delicacy. They’re ecosystem engineers, capable of building remarkably complex reefs. These structures act as the kidneys of the sea, cleaning the water and keeping the coast healthy, while

    New deal for journalism – RSF’s 11 steps to ‘reconstruct’ global media
    Australia (ranked 29th) and New Zealand (ranked 16th) are cited as positive examples by Reporters Without Borders in the 2025 World Press Freedom Index of commitment to public media development aid, showing support through regional media development such as in the Pacific Islands. Reporters Without Borders The 2025 World Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without

    Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney Australia’s federal election, held less than a week after Canada’s, has produced a shockingly similar outcome. Commentators all over the world have pointed out the parallels. In both countries, centre-left governments

    In its soul-searching, the Coalition should examine its relationship with the media
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Ricketson, Professor of Communication, Deakin University Among the many lessons to be learnt by the Liberal-National Coalition parties from the election is that they should stop getting into bed with News Corporation Australia. Why would a political party outsource its policy platform and strategy to people

    Second-term Albanese will face policy pressure, devastated Liberals have only bad options
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On February 1, on The Conversation’s podcast, Anthony Albanese not only declared that Labor would retain majority government, but held out the prospect it could win the Victorian Liberal seats of Menzies and Deakin. This was when the polls were

    Election flops – a night to forget for minor parties on the left and the right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maxine Newlands, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland, Adjunct Principal Research Fellow, Cairns Institute, James Cook University Minor parties were all the rage at the last election when, along with independent candidates, they secured almost a third of votes. But they have

    ‘Dead weight comes to mind’ when thinking about Gazan parents and genocide
    World Media Freedom Day reflections of a protester Yesterday, World Media Freedom Day, we marched to Television New Zealand in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland to deliver a letter asking them to do better. Their coverage [of Palestine] has been biased at its best, silent at its worst. I truly believe that if our media outlets reported

    Independents will not help form government – but they will be vital in holding it to account
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Visitor, School of History, Australian National University When the newspapers delivered their standard election-eve editorials, there were few surprises. Former Fairfax papers and smaller outlets offered qualified support for Labor, while the News Corp papers unashamedly championed the Coalition. In Adelaide, The Advertiser ran a

    State of the states: 6 experts on how the election unfolded across the country
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney While counting continues nationally, the federal election result is definitive: a pro-Labor landslide and an opposition leader voted out. But beyond the headline results, how did Australians in the key seats in each state vote, and

    ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for May 4, 2025
    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on May 4, 2025.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s push on deep sea mining leaves Nauru’s commercial ambitions ‘out in cold’

    By Teuila Fuatai, RNZ Pacific senior journalist

    Nauru’s ambition to commercially mine the seabed is likely at risk following President Donald Trump’s executive order last month aimed at fast-tracking ocean mining, anti-deep sea mining advocates warn.

    The order also increases instability in the Pacific region because it effectively circumvents long-standing international sea laws and processes by providing an alternative path to mine the seabed, advocates say.

    Titled Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, the order was signed by Trump on April 25. It directs the US science and environmental agency to expedite permits for companies to mine the ocean floor in US and international waters.

    It has been condemned by legal and environmental experts around the world, particularly after Canadian mining group The Metals Company announced last Tuesday it had applied to commercially mine in international waters through the US process.

    The Metals Company has so far been unsuccessful in gaining a commercial mining licence through the International Seabed Authority (ISA).

    Currently, the largest area in international waters being explored for commercial deep sea mining is the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, located in the central Pacific Ocean. The vast area sits between Hawai’i, Kiribati and Mexico, and spans 4.5 million sq km.

    The area is of high commercial interest because it has an abundance of polymetallic nodules that contain valuable metals like cobalt, nickel, manganese and copper, which are used to make products such as smartphones and electric batteries. The minerals are also used in weapons manufacturing.

    Benefits ‘for humankind as a whole’
    Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Clarion-Clipperton Zone falls under the jurisdiction of the ISA, which was established in 1994. That legislation states that any benefits from minerals extracted in its jurisdiction must be for “humankind as a whole”.

    Nauru — alongside Tonga, Kiribati and the Cook Islands — has interests in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone after being allocated blocks of the area through UNCLOS. They are known as sponsor states.

    In total, there are 19 sponsor states in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone.

    Nauru is leading the charge for deep sea mining in international waters. Image: RNZ Pacific/Caleb Fotheringham

    Nauru and The Metals Company
     Since 2011, Nauru has partnered with The Metals Company to explore and assess its block in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone for commercial mining activity.

    It has done this through an ISA exploration licence.

    At the same time, the ISA, which counts all Pacific nations among its 169-strong membership, has also been developing a commercial mining code. That process began in 2014 and is ongoing.

    The process has been criticised by The Metals Company as effectively blocking it and Nauru’s commercial mining interests.

    Both have sought to advance their respective interests in different ways.

    In 2021, Nauru took the unprecedented step of utilising a “two-year” notification period to initiate an exploitation licencing process under the ISA, even though a commercial seabed mining code was still being developed.

    An ISA commercial mining code, once finalised, is expected to provide the legal and technical regulations for exploitation of the seabed.

    In the absence of a code
    However, according to international law, in the absence of a code, should a plan for exploitation be submitted to the ISA, the body is required to provisionally accept it within two years of its submission.

    While Nauru ultimately delayed enforcing the two-year rule, it remains the only state to ever invoke it under the ISA. It has also stated that it is “comfortable with being a leader on these issues”.

    To date, the ISA has not issued a licence for exploitation of the seabed.

    Meanwhile, The Metals Company has emphasised the economic potential of deep sea mining and its readiness to begin commercial activities. It has also highlighted the potential value of minerals sitting on the seabed in Nauru’s block in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone.

    “[The block represents] 22 percent of The Metals Company’s estimated resource in the [Clarion-Clipperton Zone and] . . .  is ranked as having the largest underdeveloped nickel deposit in the world,” the company states on its website.

    Its announcement on Tuesday revealed it had filed three applications for mining activity in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone under the US pathway. One application is for a commercial mining permit. Two are for exploration permits.

    The announcement added further fuel to warnings from anti-deep sea mining advocates that The Metals Company is pivoting away from Nauru and arrangements under the ISA.

    Last year, the company stated it intended to submit a plan for commercial mining to the ISA on June 27 so it could begin exploitation operations by 2026.

    This date appears to have been usurped by developments under Trump, with the company saying on Tuesday that its US permit application “advances [the company’s] timeline ahead” of that date.

    The Trump factor
     Trump’s recent executive order is critical to this because it specifically directs relevant US government agencies to reactivate the country’s own deep sea mining licence process that had largely been unused over the past 40 years.

    President Donald Trump signs a proclamation in the Oval Office at the White House last month expanding fishing rights in the Pacific Islands to an area he described as three times the size of California. Image: RNZ screenshot APR

    That legislation, the Deep Sea Hard Mineral Resources Act, states the US can grant mining permits in international waters. It was implemented in 1980 as a temporary framework while the US worked towards ratifying the UNCLOS Treaty. Since then, only four exploration licences have been issued under the legislation.

    To date, the US is yet to ratify UNCLOS.

    At face value, the Deep Sea Hard Mineral Resources Act offers an alternative licensing route to commercial seabed activity in the high seas to the ISA. However, any cross-over between jurisdictions and authorities remains untested.

    Now, The Metals Company appears to be operating under both in the same area of international waters — the Clarion-Clipperton Zone.

    Deep Sea Conservation Coalition’s Pacific regional coordinator Phil McCabe said it was unclear what would happen to Nauru.

    “This announcement really appears to put Nauru as a partner of the company out in the cold,” McCabe said.

    No Pacific benefit mechanism
    “If The Metals Company moves through the US process, it appears that there is no mechanism or no need for any benefit to go to the Pacific Island sponsoring states because they sponsor through the ISA, not the US,” he said.

    McCabe, who is based in Aotearoa New Zealand, highlighted extensive investment The Metals Company had poured into the Nauru block over more than 10 years.

    He said it was in the company’s financial interests to begin commercial mining as soon as possible.

    “If The Metals Company was going to submit an application through the US law, it would have to have a good measure of environmental data on the area that it wants to mine, and the only area that it has that data [for] is the Nauru block,” McCabe said.

    He also pointed out that the size of the Nauru block The Metals Company had worked on in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone was the same as a block it wanted to commercially mine through US legislation.

    Both are exactly 25,160 sq km, McCabe said.

    RNZ Pacific asked The Metals Company to clarify whether its US application applied to Nauru and Tonga’s blocks. The company said it would “be able to confirm details of the blocks in the coming weeks”.

    It also said it intended to retain its exploration contracts through the ISA that were sponsored by Nauru and Tonga, respectively.

    Cook Islands nodule field – photo taken within Cook Islands EEZ. Image: Cook Islands Seabed Minerals Authority

    Pacific Ocean a ‘new frontier’
     Pacific Network on Globalisation (PANG) associate Maureen Penjueli had similar observations to McCabe regarding the potential impacts of Trump’s executive order.

    Trump’s order, and The Metals Company ongoing insistence to commercially mine the ocean, was directly related to escalating geopolitical competition, she told RNZ Pacific.

    “There are a handful of minerals that are quite critical for all kinds of weapons development, from tankers to armour like nuclear weapons, submarines, aircraft,” she said.

    Currently, the supply and processing of minerals in that market, which includes iron, lithium, copper, cobalt and graphite, is dominated by China.

    Between 40 and 90 percent of the world’s rare earth minerals are processed by China, Penjueli said. The variation is due to differences between individual minerals.

    As a result, both Europe and the US are heavily dependent on China for these minerals, which according to Penjueli, has massive implications.

    “On land, you will see the US Department of Defense really trying to seek alternative [mineral] sources,” Penjueli said.

    “Now, it’s extended to minerals in the seabed, both within [a country’s exclusive economic zone], but also in areas beyond national jurisdictions, such as the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, which is here in the Pacific. That is around the geopolitical [competition]  . . .  and the US versus China positioning.”

    Notably, Trump’s executive order on the US seabed mining licence process highlights the country’s reliance on overseas mineral supply, particularly regarding security and defence implications.

    He said the US wanted to advance its leadership in seabed mineral development by “strengthening partnerships with allies and industry to counter China’s growing influence over seabed mineral resources”.

    The Metals Company and the US
     She believed The Metals Company had become increasingly focused on security and defence needs.

    Initially, the company had framed commercial deep sea mining as essential for the world’s transition to green energies, she said. It had used that language when referring to its relationships with Pacific states like Nauru, Penjueli said.

    However, the company had also begun pitching US policy makers under the Biden administration over the need to acquire critical minerals from the seabed to meet US security and defence needs, she said.

    Since Trump’s re-election, it had also made a series of public announcements praising US government decisions that prioritised deep sea mining development for defence and security purposes.

    In a press release on Trump’s executive order, The Metals Company chief executive Gerard Barron said the company had enough knowledge to manage the environmental risks of deep sea mining.

    “Over the last decade, we’ve invested over half a billion dollars to understand and responsibly develop the nodule resource in our contract areas,” Barron said.

    “We built the world’s largest environmental dataset on the [Clarion-Clipperton Zone], carefully designed and tested an off-shore collection system that minimises the environmental impacts and followed every step required by the International Seabed Authority.

    “What we need is a regulator with a robust regulatory regime, and who is willing to give our application a fair hearing. That’s why we’ve formally initiated the process of applying for licenses and permits under the existing US seabed mining code,” Barron said.

    ISA influenced by opposition faction
    The Metals Company directed RNZ Pacific to a statement on its website in response to an interview request.

    The statement, signed by Barron, said the ISA was being influenced by a faction of states aligned with environmental NGOs that opposed the deep sea mining industry.

    Barron also disputed any contraventions of international law under the US regime, and said the country has had “a fully developed regulatory regime” for commercial seabed mining since 1989.

    “The ISA has neither the mining code nor the willingness to engage with their commercial contractors,” Barron said. “In full compliance with international law, we are committed to delivering benefits to our developing state partners.”

    President Trump’s executive order marks America’s return to “leadership in this exciting industry”, claims The Metals Company. Note the name “Gulf of America” on this map was introduced by President Trump in a controversial move, but the rest of the world regards it as the Gulf of Mexico, as recognised by officially recognised by the International Hydrographic Organisation. Image: Facebook/The Metals Company

    ‘It’s an America-first move’
    Despite Barron’s observations, Penjueli and McCabe believed The Metals Company and the US were side-stepping international law, placing Pacific nations at risk.

    McCabe said Pacific nations benefitted from UNCLOS, which gives rights over vast oceanic territories.

    “It’s an America-first move,” said McCabe who believes the actions of The Minerals Company and the US are also a contravention of international law.

    There are also significant concerns that Trump’s executive order has effectively triggered a race to mine the Pacific seabed for minerals that will be destined for military purposes like weapons systems manufacturing, Penjueli said.

    Unlike UNCLOS, the US deep sea mining legislation does not stipulate that minerals from international waters must be used for peaceful purposes.

    Deep Sea Conservation Coalition’s Duncan Currie believes this is another tricky legal point for Nauru and other sponsor states in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone.

    Potentially contravene international law
    For example, should Nauru enter a commercial mining arrangement with The Metals Company and the US under US mining legislation, any royalties that may eventuate could potentially contravene international law, Currie said.

    First, the process would be outside the ISA framework, he said.

    Second, UNCLOS states that any benefits from seabed mining in international waters must benefit all of “humankind”.

    Therefore, Currie said, royalties earned in a process that cannot be scrutinised by the ISA likely did not meet that stipulation.

    Third, he said, if the extracted minerals were used for military purposes — which was a focus of Trump’s executive order — then it likely violates the principle that the seabed should only be exploited for peaceful purposes.

    “There really are a host of very difficult legal issues that arise,” he added.

    The Metals Company says ISA is being influenced by a faction of states aligned with environmental NGOs that oppose the deep sea mining industry. Image: Facebook/The Metals Company/RNZ

    The road ahead
     Now more than ever, anti-deep sea mining advocates believe a moratorium on the practice is necessary.

    Penjueli, echoing Currie’s concerns, said there was too much uncertainty with two potential avenues to commercial mining.

    “The moratorium call is quite urgent at this point,” she said.

    “We simply don’t know what [these developments] mean right now. What are the implications if The Metals Company decides to dump its Pacific state sponsored partners? What does it mean for the legal tenements that they hold in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone?”

    In that instance, Nauru, which has spearheaded the push for commercial seabed mining alongside The Metals Company, may be particularly exposed.

    Currently, more than 30 countries have declared support for a moratorium on deep sea mining. Among them are Fiji, Federated States of Micronesia, New Caledonia, Palau, Samoa, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Tuvalu.

    On the other hand, Nauru, Kiribati, Tonga, and the Cook Islands all support deep sea mining.

    Australia has not explicitly called for a moratorium on the practice, but it has also refrained from supporting it.

    New Zealand supported a moratorium on deep sea mining under the previous Labour government. The current government is reportedly reconsidering this stance.

    RNZ Pacific contacted the Nauru government for comment but did not receive a response.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A ‘Trump slump’ has lifted the left in Canada and now Australia – what are the lessons for NZ?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Duncan, Teaching Fellow in Politics and International Relations, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Trying to capitalise on the electoral success of US President Donald Trump, now that his policies are having real-world effects, is proving to be a big mistake for conservative leaders.

    Australian voters have delivered a landslide win for the incumbent Labor Party, returning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for a second term with a clear majority of seats.

    When he said in his victory speech that Australians had “voted for Australian values”, an unspoken message was that they’d firmly rejected Trumpian values.

    Meanwhile, opposition and Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton had such a bad election he lost his own seat. While not the only reason for his electoral demise, Dutton’s adoption of themes associated with Trump backfired.

    As recently as mid-February, however, it was a completely different story. Opinion polls were projecting Dutton’s Coalition to win. Betting markets followed suit, pricing in a change of government.

    But by March, Labor had pulled ahead in the polls, and exceeded expectations in the election itself. As one commentator put it, the Liberals were “reduced to a right-wing populist party that is all but exiled from the biggest cities”.

    Reversal of fortune

    Where, then, did Dutton go wrong? Commentators identified a number of reasons, including his “culture wars” and being depicted by Labor as “Trump-lite”.

    Following a Trumpian pathway turned out to be a strategic blunder. And Dutton’s downfall mirrors Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s defeat in Canada’s election on April 28.

    In January, Canada’s incumbent centre-left Liberals were heading for defeat to the Conservatives. But there were two gamechangers: the Liberals switched leaders from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney, and Trump caused a national uproar with his aggressive tariffs and his call for Canada to become the 51st US state.

    Pre-election opinion polls then did a dramatic flip in favour of the Liberals, who went on to win their fourth election in a row.

    Poilievre’s campaign had adopted elements of the Trump style, such as attacking “wokeness” and using derogatory nicknames for opponents.

    His strategy failed as soon as Trump rolled out “America First” policies contrary to Canadians’ economic interests and national pride. The takeaway for serious right-wing leaders in liberal democracies is clear: let Trump do Trump; his brand is toxic.

    Not a universal trend

    Trump’s actions are harming America’s allies. His tariffs, disregard for the rule of law, and tough policies on migrants, affirmative action and climate change have seen voters outside the US react with self-protective patriotism.

    A perceived association with Trump’s brand has now upended the electoral fortunes of (so far) two centre-right parties that had been in line to win, and had been banking on the 2024 MAGA success somehow rubbing off on them.

    Admittedly, what has been dubbed the “Trump slump” isn’t a universal trend.

    In Germany, the centre-left Social Democratic-led government was ousted in February, in spite of Trump ally Elon Musk’s unhelpful support for the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

    And in the United Kingdom, the populist Reform UK party has risen above 25%, while Labour has fallen from 34% in last year’s election to the low 20s in recent polls.

    But other governing centre-left parties are seeing an upside of the Trump effect.
    Norway’s next election is on September 8. In early January it looked like the incumbent Labour Party would be trounced by the Conservatives and the right-wing Progress Party.

    Opinion polls dramatically flipped in early February, however, boosting Labour from below 20% back into the lead, hitting 30%. If that trend is sustained, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre will get another term in office.

    Denmark’s governing Social Democrats have enjoyed a small polling boost, too, since Trump declared he’d like to take Greenland off their hands.

    Lessons for NZ’s left and right

    The common denominator underlying these shifts to the left seems to be the Trump effect. Voters in countries normally closely allied with the US are turning away from Trump-adjacent politicians.

    In 2024, elections tended to go against incumbents. But, for now at least, people are rallying patriotically around centre-left, sitting governments.

    Ironically, Trump is harming leaders who could have been his allies. Unrepentant as always, the man himself seemed proud of the impact he had in Canada.

    Winston Peters: culture war rhetoric.
    Getty Images

    In Australia and New Zealand, polls in mid-2024 showed support for Trump was growing – heading well above 20%. Australia’s election suggests that trend may now be past its peak.

    In New Zealand, with debate over ACT’s contentious Treaty Principles Bill behind it, and despite NZ First leader Winston Peters’ overt culture-war rhetoric (which may appeal to his 6% support base), the right-wing coalition government’s polling shows it could be on track for a second term – for the time being.

    While the Trump effect may have benefited centre-left parties in Australia and Canada, polling for New Zealand’s Labour opposition is softer than at the start of the year.

    While “America First” policies continue to damage the global economy, centre-right leaders who learn the lesson will quietly distance themselves from the Trump brand, while maintaining cordial relations with the White House.

    Centre-left leaders, however, could do worse than follow Anthony Albanese’s example of not getting distracted by “Trump-lite” and instead promoting his own country’s values of fairness and mutual respect.

    Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A ‘Trump slump’ has lifted the left in Canada and now Australia – what are the lessons for NZ? – https://theconversation.com/a-trump-slump-has-lifted-the-left-in-canada-and-now-australia-what-are-the-lessons-for-nz-255715

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is a ‘smart city’ and why should we care? It’s not just a buzzword

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne

    guitar photographer/Shutterstock

    More than half of the world’s population currently lives in cities and this share is expected to rise to nearly 70% by 2050.

    It’s no wonder “smart cities” have become a buzzword in urban planning, politics and tech circles, and even media.

    The phrase conjures images of self-driving buses, traffic lights controlled by artificial intelligence (AI) and buildings that manage their own energy use.

    But for all the attention the term receives, it’s not clear what actually makes a city smart. Is it about the number of sensors installed? The speed of the internet? The presence of a digital dashboard at the town hall?

    Governments regularly speak of future-ready cities and the promise of “digital transformation”. But when the term “smart city” is used in policy documents or on the campaign trail, it often lacks clarity.

    Over the past two decades, governments around the world have poured billions into smart city initiatives, often with more ambition than clarity. The result has been a patchwork of projects: some genuinely transformative, others flashy but shallow.

    So, what does it really mean for a city to be smart? And how can technology solve real urban problems, not just create new ones?

    What is a smart city, then?

    The term “smart city” has been applied to a wide range of urban technologies and initiatives – from traffic sensors and smart meters to autonomous vehicles and energy-efficient building systems.

    But a consistent, working definition remains elusive.

    In academic and policy circles, one widely accepted view is that a smart city is one where technology is used to enhance key urban outcomes: liveability, sustainability, social equity and, ultimately, people’s quality of life.

    What matters here is whether the application of technology leads to measurable improvements in the way people live, move and interact with the city around them.

    By that standard, many “smart city” initiatives fall short, not because the tools don’t exist, but because the focus is often on visibility and symbolic infrastructure rather than impact.

    This could be features like high-tech digital kiosks in public spaces that are visibly modern and offer some use and value, but do little to address core urban challenges.

    The reality of urban governance – messy, decentralised, often constrained – is a long way from the seamless dashboards and simulations often promised in promotional material.

    But there is a way to help join together the various aspects of city living, with the help of “digital twins”.

    Slick digital dashboards that show the stats of a city at a glance are a far cry from the messy reality of city governance.
    thinkhubstudio/Shutterstock

    Digital twin (of?) cities

    Much of the early focus on smart cities revolved around individual technologies: installing sensors, launching apps or creating control centres. But these tools often worked in isolation and offered limited insight into how the city functioned as a whole.

    City digital twins represent a shift in approach.

    Instead of layering technology onto existing systems, a city digital twin creates a virtual replica of those systems. It links real-time data across transport, energy, infrastructure and the environment. It’s a kind of living, evolving model of the city that changes as the real city changes.

    This enables planners and policymakers to test decisions before making them. They can simulate the impact of a new road, assess the risk of flooding in a changing climate or compare the outcomes of different zoning options.

    Used in this way, digital twins support decisions that are better informed, more responsive, and more in tune with how cities actually work.

    Not all digital twins operate at the same level. Some offer little more than 3D visualisations, while others bring in real-time data and support complex scenario testing.

    The most advanced ones don’t just simulate the city, but interact with it.

    Where it’s working

    To manage urban change, some cities are already using digital twins to support long-term planning and day-to-day decision-making – and not just as add-ons.

    In Singapore, the Virtual Singapore project is one of the most advanced city-scale digital twins in the world.

    It integrates high-resolution 3D models of Singapore with real-time and historical data from across the city. The platform has been used by government agencies to model energy consumption, assess climate and air flow impacts of new buildings, manage underground infrastructure, and explore zoning options based on risks like flooding in a highly constrained urban environment.

    In Helsinki, the Kalasatama digital twin has been used to evaluate solar energy potential, conduct wind simulations and plan building orientations. It has also been integrated into public engagement processes: the OpenCities Planner platform lets residents explore proposed developments and offer feedback before construction begins.

    Urban planners in Helsinki have been using a digital twin to help plan building orientations.
    Mistervlad/Shutterstock

    We need a smarter conversation about smart cities

    If smart cities are going to matter, they must do more than sound and look good. They need to solve real problems, improve people’s lives and protect the privacy and integrity of the data they collect.

    That includes being built with strong safeguards against cyber threats. A connected city should not be a more vulnerable city.

    The term smart city has always been slippery – more aspiration than definition. That ambiguity makes it hard to measure whether, or how, a city becomes smart. But one thing is clear: being smart doesn’t mean flooding citizens with apps and screens, or wrapping public life in flashy tech.

    The smartest cities might not even feel digital on the surface. They would work quietly in the background, gather only the data they need, coordinate it well and use it to make citizens’ life safer, fairer and more efficient.

    Milad Haghani receives funding from The Australian Research Council & The Australian Government.

    Abbas Rajabifard receives funding from Victorian Government via Land Use Department.

    Benny Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is a ‘smart city’ and why should we care? It’s not just a buzzword – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-smart-city-and-why-should-we-care-its-not-just-a-buzzword-255419

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    Australia’s federal election, held less than a week after Canada’s, has produced a shockingly similar outcome. Commentators all over the world have pointed out the parallels.

    In both countries, centre-left governments looked like they were in serious trouble not long ago.

    On February 23, a Resolve Strategic poll found the Coalition leading Labor 55-45% on a two-party-preferred basis. An Angus Reid poll in December found voting intention for Canada’s Liberals dropping to just 16%, compared to 45% for the Conservatives.

    Yet, both governments are now celebrating historic victories. And in both countries, the conservative opposition leaders, Pierre Poilievre and Peter Dutton, lost their own seats.

    US President Donald Trump was undoubtedly a factor in both elections. Even Trump’s most ardent Australian fans admit the reversal of the Coalition’s fortunes in the polls seems to have been precipitated by Trump’s actions, particularly his chaotic tariff announcements and his White House humiliation of Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

    In Canada, Trump cheerfully presented himself as an existential threat to the country.

    But if anything, Labor’s landslide win in the Australian election on Saturday highlights just how poorly the Coalition fared under Dutton compared to Canada’s Conservatives. The Coalition bottomed out, while the Tories fared reasonably well in the face of difficult circumstances.

    A painful but respectable loss for Conservatives in Canada

    So, why the huge difference between the two parties? This is largely because of the differences between the Canadian and Australian electoral systems.

    Unlike Australia, Canada does not have preferential voting – a vote for one party is a vote against another. The Liberals’ rise in the polls came mostly at the expense of the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) rather than the Conservatives.

    Back in December, 21% of voters preferred the NDP, compared to 16% for Justin Trudeau’s deeply unpopular Liberals. But when Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney became the party’s new leader, the threat posed by Trump unified centre-left Canadian voters behind the Liberals, who had the best chance of winning.

    This is the strategic voting that is necessary in winner-take-all systems. The NDP has never won the largest share of seats in a national election, and it never had a chance of winning this one.

    The NDP was left with seven seats in last week’s election and under 7% of the vote, losing their party status in parliament and their leader. This was the most significant “Trump effect” on the Canadian election.

    Canada’s Conservatives ended up with 41.3% of the vote. This was only a few points down from their December high of 45% in the Angus Reid poll. They also won the greatest share of the national vote by any centre-right party since 1988, and expanded their share of seats in the parliament.

    The Liberals, meanwhile, barely won the popular vote and fell three seats short of a majority.

    Poilievre was rightly criticised for failing to respond effectively to the challenge posed by Trump’s bullying, instead continuing to campaign as if the election were still a referendum on Trudeau.

    That may have cost him a victory that seemed certain months earlier, especially considering Carney made his campaign all about standing up to Trump.

    Yet, the Conservatives still performed well enough for Poilievre to retain his position as opposition leader despite losing his seat. Another Conservative sacrificed his own seat to let Poilievre back into parliament.

    Dutton’s mistakes were bigger

    It’s hard to imagine any member of Dutton’s party doing the same. Dutton handed Labor a staggeringly high two-party-preferred vote and (likely) the most seats it has ever had. Labor won 86 seats in 1987, while Anthony Albanese’s party will have at least 86, with the count continuing.

    Dutton’s campaign has been widely described as “shambolic”. But it wasn’t just the last five weeks that doomed the Coalition.

    From the moment he became leader, it was clear Dutton had little interest in winning back the former Liberal heartland seats that fell to Teal independents in 2022. Instead, he held out the promise the outer suburbs would become the new heartland.

    Following the patterns established by John Howard, Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison, he believed the loss of middle-class women, once the backbone of the Liberal vote, could be compensated by gains among working-class men.

    This was always a pipe dream, given the flimsiness of the culture war issues that have been Dutton’s preferred terrain. But it drove urban voters further away from the Liberal Party.

    The Liberals should have been alarmed that in state elections and byelections last year, they were making almost no gains in metropolitan seats, whether inner suburban or outer suburban.

    The Coalition should resist seeing Trump as a natural disaster over which they had no control. Dutton consciously positioned himself as part of the global populist right that Trump leads. Voters recognised this, even when Dutton half-heartedly tried to distance himself from Trump.

    Not all right-wing populists are the same. Poilievre and Dutton have their own brands of populism they have spent decades cultivating, as have other right-wing populists like Javier Milei in Argentina. But in the suffocating global environment created by Trump, there is limited room for brand differentiation. He is the unavoidable reference point of right-wing politics.

    Last November, many right-wing figures thought this would benefit them. One of them is now a spectacular political casualty.

    David Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton – https://theconversation.com/blaming-donald-trump-for-conservative-losses-in-both-canada-and-australia-is-being-too-kind-to-peter-dutton-255599

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Newly discovered tropical oyster reefs are thriving across northern Australia – they deserve protection

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marina Richardson, Research Fellow in Marine Science, Griffith University

    Marina Richardson

    Oysters are so much more than a seafood delicacy. They’re ecosystem engineers, capable of building remarkably complex reefs. These structures act as the kidneys of the sea, cleaning the water and keeping the coast healthy, while providing homes for millions of other animals.

    Oyster reefs were once thought to be restricted to southern, cooler coastal waters where they’re the temperate equivalent of tropical coral reefs. But now, oyster reefs are being found right across Australia’s tropical north as well.

    These tropical oyster reefs are bigger and more widespread than anyone expected. In fact, they are some of the largest known intertidal oyster reefs (exposed at low tide) left in Australia. And they’re everywhere – from the southern limit of the Queensland tropics across to the northern coast of Western Australia – yet we know almost nothing about them.

    In our recent research, my colleagues and I completed the first detailed study of Australian tropical oyster reefs. These reefs are so new to science that until now, the species responsible for building them remained a mystery.

    Using DNA, we identified the main reef-building oyster species in tropical Australia as “Saccostrea Lineage B”, making it a new addition to our national list of known reef-builders.

    Lineage B is a close relative of the commercially important Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata), but so little is known about this tropical reef-building species that it is yet to be assigned a scientific name.

    The Saccostrea Lineage B oysters we found in Australia’s tropical north are related to Sydney rock oysters.
    Marina Richardson

    Hiding in plain sight

    So why are we only learning about tropical oyster reefs now?

    Across the globe, oyster reefs have been decimated by human activity. These reefs declined in most tropical regions long ago, even as far back as 1,000 years ago. Most oyster reefs disappeared without a trace before scientists even knew they were there.

    However, Australia’s tropical oyster reefs haven’t just survived, in some cases they have thrived.

    Despite being delicious to many, the species we now know as Lineage B was not very attractive to the aquaculture industry, due to its small size. And while oyster reefs near Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne were dredged and burned to produce lime for mortar, used in the early construction of roads and buildings, this practice was not widespread in tropical regions. This lack of commercial interest is probably the reason why tropical oyster reefs have persisted unnoticed for so long in northern Australia.

    Here the tropical oyster reefs were found growing on a combination of both rock and muddy sediment.
    Marina Richardson

    What we did and what we found

    We assessed three tropical oyster reefs in Queensland, Australia. At Wilson Beach, near Proserpine and Turkey Beach, near Gladstone, reefs were surveyed in late winter 2022. The reef at Mapoon in the Gulf of Carpentaria was surveyed in early spring 2023.

    Using drone footage, we measured reef area and structure. We then collected oysters for genetic analysis.

    Oysters are notoriously difficult to identify, because their shape, size and colour varies so much. Oysters from the same species can look completely different, while oysters from different species can look identical. That’s why it’s necessary to extract DNA.

    We found almost all reef-building oysters across the three locations were Saccostrea Lineage B.

    At Gladstone reefs, several other reef-building species were also present, including leaf oysters, pearl oysters and hairy mussels.

    We compared three tropical oyster reefs in Queensland.
    Richardson, M., et al (2025) Marine Environmental Research

    An ecosystem worthy of protection

    In southern Australia, oyster reefs are critically endangered. But we don’t really know how threatened their tropical counterparts are, although there is some evidence of decline. Further research is underway.

    A new project has begun to map oyster reefs across tropical Australia. Since the project launched in June 2024, more than 60 new reefs have been found across Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia – including some as large as 5 hectares.

    These unexpected discoveries provide a beacon of hope in a world currently overwhelmed by habitat decline and ecological collapse. But tropical oyster reefs are not yet protected. It’s crucial we include them in assessments of threatened ecosystems, to understand how much trouble they’re in and what we can do to protect them into the future.

    By locating and understanding these overlooked ecosystems, we can ensure they’re not left behind in the global oyster reef restoration movement.

    Scientists and others involved in reef restoration are now inviting everyday people across Australia to get involved as citizen scientists in The Great Shellfish Hunt. Anyone can upload tropical oyster reef sightings to this mapping project. It’s more important than ever to work together and ensure tropical oyster reefs receive the protection they deserve, so they continue to thrive for generations to come.

    Marina Richardson currently receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and the Queensland Government Department of Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation.

    – ref. Newly discovered tropical oyster reefs are thriving across northern Australia – they deserve protection – https://theconversation.com/newly-discovered-tropical-oyster-reefs-are-thriving-across-northern-australia-they-deserve-protection-254612

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: We talk a lot about being ‘resilient’. But what does it actually mean?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter McEvoy, Professor of Clinical Psychology, Curtin University

    Kinga Howard/Unsplash

    In a world with political polarisation, war, extreme weather events and increasing costs of living, we need to be able to cope as individuals and communities.

    Our capacity to cope with very real stressors in our lives – our resilience – can determine whether we thrive, just survive, or are deprived of a reasonable quality of life.

    Stress vs resilience

    Resilience means having the ability to cope with, and rebound from, life’s challenges and still achieve our goals.

    Stress isn’s something to be avoided. We need to feel some stress to achieve our best. Exposure to manageable levels of stress and adversity develops our coping skills and resilience.

    But if we feel too much stress, we can flounder or become overwhelmed.

    The ability to re-activate ourselves when we feel down, fatigued or disengaged helps to optimise our focus and motivation. Sportspeople, for example, might listen to high intensity music just before a competition to increase their energy levels.

    Conversely, the ability to dampen down emotional intensity can make use feel less stressed or anxious. Exercising, listening to relaxing music, or patting a much-loved pet can prevent high arousal from interfering with completing a task.

    Effective emotion regulation is crucial for adapting to life’s ups and downs, and keeping us on a relatively even keel.

    How does resilience develop?

    Resilience emerges from interactions between personal and environmental factors.

    In addition to emotion regulation skills, personal factors that can bolster resilience include academic achievement, developing a range of skills and abilities (such as sport and music) and problem-solving skills. Many of these skills can be fostered in childhood. And if one area of life isn’t going well, we can still experience confidence, joy and meaning in others.

    Sometimes we need to increase our energy levels, other times we need to lower anxiety.
    Ilias Chebbi/Unsplash

    People who reflect on traumatic experience and develop new positive meanings about themselves (getting through it means I’m strong!) and life (a greater appreciation) can also have higher levels of resilience.

    Genetic factors and temperament also play an important role. Some of us are born with nervous systems that respond with more anxiety than others in novel, uncertain, or potentially threatening situations. And some of us are more likely to avoid rather than approach these situations. These traits tend to be associated with lower levels of resilience. But we can all learn skills to build our resilience.

    Environmental factors that promote resilience include:

    • a nurturing home environment
    • supportive family and peer relationships
    • cultural identity, belonging and rituals
    • modelling from others overcoming hardship
    • community cohesion
    • government policies that provide social safety nets, strong education, anti-discrimination and inclusion
    • investment in facilities, spaces, services and networks that support the quality of life and wellbeing of communities.

    Can resilience be taught?

    Many factors associated with resilience are modifiable, so it stands to reason that interventions that aim to bolster them should be helpful.

    There is evidence that interventions that promote optimism, flexibility, active coping and social support-seeking can have small yet meaningful positive effects on resilience and emotional wellbeing in children and adults.

    However, school-based programs give us reason to be cautious.

    A trial across 84 schools in the United Kingdom evaluated the effectiveness of school-based mindfulness programs. More than 3,500 students aged between 11 and 13 years received ten lessons of mindfulness and a similar number did not.

    There was no evidence that mindfulness had any benefit on risk for depression, social, emotional and behavioural functioning, or wellbeing after one year. Teaching school children mindfulness at scale did not appear to bolster resilience.

    In fact, there was some evidence it did harm – and it was most harmful for students at the highest risk of depression. The intervention was not deemed to be effective or cost-effective and was not recommended by the authors.

    In another recent trial, researchers found an emotion regulation intervention with Year 8 and 9 school children was unhelpful and even harmful, although children who engaged in more home practice tended to do better.

    The evidence doesn’t support school-based resilience programs.
    Mitchell Luo/Unsplash

    These interventions may have failed for a number of reasons. The content may not have been delivered in a way that was sufficiently engaging, comprehensive, age-appropriate, frequent, individually tailored, or relevant to the school context. Teachers may also not be sufficiently trained in delivering these interventions for them to be effective. And students didn’t co-design the interventions.

    Regardless of the reasons, these findings suggest we need to be cautious when delivering universal interventions to all children. It may be more helpful to wait until there are early signs of excessive stress and intervening in an individualised way.

    What does this mean for resilience-building?

    Parents and schools have a role in providing children with the sense of security that gives them confidence to explore their environments and make mistakes in age-appropriate ways, and providing support when needed.

    Parents and teachers can encourage children to try to solve problems themselves before getting involved. Problem-solving attempts should be celebrated even more than success.

    Schools need to allocate their scarce resources to children most in need of practical and emotional support in non-stigmatising ways, rather than universal approaches. Most children will develop resilience without intervention programs.

    To promote resilience, schools can foster positive peer relationships, cultural identity and involvement in creative, sporting and academic pursuits. They can also highlight others’ recovery and resilience stories to demonstrate how growth can occur from adversity.

    More broadly in the community, people can work on developing their own emotion regulation skills to bolster their confidence in their ability to manage adversity.

    Think about how you can:

    • approach challenges in constructive ways
    • actively problem-solve rather than avoid challenges
    • genuinely accept failure as part of being human
    • establish healthy boundaries
    • align your behaviour with your values
    • receive social and professional support when needed.

    This will help you navigate the ebbs and flows of life in ways that support recovery and growth.



    Read more:
    People’s mental health goes downhill after repeated climate disasters – it’s an issue of social equity

    Peter McEvoy is a Professor of clinical psychology at the Curtin enAble Institute and School of Population Health. He is also a Senior Clinical Psychologist at The Centre for Clinical Interventions, Perth, and a Board Member of the Australian Association of Cognitive Behaviour Therapy. He does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. The opinions and perspectives in this article are his own.

    – ref. We talk a lot about being ‘resilient’. But what does it actually mean? – https://theconversation.com/we-talk-a-lot-about-being-resilient-but-what-does-it-actually-mean-245256

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New deal for journalism – RSF’s 11 steps to ‘reconstruct’ global media

    Australia (ranked 29th) and New Zealand (ranked 16th) are cited as positive examples by Reporters Without Borders in the 2025 World Press Freedom Index of commitment to public media development aid, showing support through regional media development such as in the Pacific Islands.

    Reporters Without Borders

    The 2025 World Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has revealed the dire state of the news economy and how it severely threatens newsrooms’ editorial independence and media pluralism.

    In light of this alarming situation, RSF has called on public authorities, private actors and regional institutions to commit to a “New Deal for Journalism” by following 11 key recommendations.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Wildfire smoke and extreme heat can occur together: Preparing for the combined health effects of a hot, smoky future

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stephanie Cleland, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University

    In recent years, Canadians have been subjected to both severe wildfire smoke and extreme heat events, as evidenced by the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season and the 2021 heat dome. Western Canada in particular has a long history of wildfires and heat waves, and with climate change, communities have experienced an increasing number of days per year affected by wildfire smoke or extreme temperatures.

    It’s well understood that exposure to either wildfire smoke or extreme heat poses a significant threat to health. For example, there is substantial evidence linking wildfire smoke to an increased risk of hospitalizations for lung or heart complications, with emerging evidence that exposure may also affect birth outcomes and cognitive function. Similarly, we know that extreme heat can increase the risk of illness or death from conditions related to our lungs, hearts and brains.

    However, most available research has focused on the effects of these climate hazards in isolation, without considering what the health risks might be when wildfire smoke and extreme heat happen at the same time. We live in a complex world where we’re rarely exposed to one hazard at a time, and wildfire season overlaps with the warmest months of the year, making it essential to consider the potential risks of concurrent exposure to heat and smoke.

    While only a handful of studies have explored the effects of co-occurring wildfire smoke and extreme heat events, early evidence indicates that simultaneous exposure may actually amplify the adverse health effects, leading to worse respiratory, cardiovascular and birth outcomes than either exposure on their own.

    This emerging evidence of amplified effects, paired with expected increases in Canadians’ exposure to both wildfire smoke and extreme heat, prompted me and my colleagues at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control to explore how often, and where, these climate hazards are co-occurring in Canada. In doing so, we aimed to identify priority communities to guide public health communication and adaptation planning in the face of hotter and smokier summers.

    When wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-occur

    To understand how often communities are simultaneously exposed to wildfire smoke and extreme heat, we analyzed 13 years of temperature and air pollution data across British Columbia. We calculated the number of days affected by both wildfire smoke and extreme heat in each dissemination area (small, government-defined geographic regions that have an average population of 400-700 people). We also assessed if the frequency and intensity of these simultaneous climate hazards has changed over time.

    The number of days with simultaneous exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat between 2010-2022. The number of days are calculated for each community (dissemination area) in British Columbia.
    (Cleland et al., 2025), CC BY-NC-ND

    We found that wildfire smoke and extreme heat frequently co-occur in British Columbia, with all communities experiencing at least seven, and upwards of 65, days with simultaneous exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat between 2010 to 2022.

    We also identified that the frequency and intensity of these events has escalated over time, with 42.5 per cent of communities (approximately 1.9 million people) experiencing significant increases in their exposure. For example, between 2018 to 2022, communities on average experienced 4.5 days per year with simultaneous exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat, compared with only one day per year between 2010 to 2014.

    Trends in the number of days with simultaneous exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat between 2010-2022. The left figure illustrates which communities (dissemination areas) experienced significant increases in their exposure, and the right figure illustrates the number of days with simultaneous exposure during each year of the study period.
    (Cleland et al., 2025), CC BY-NC-ND

    We also found that communities across the province were not equally affected by these co-occurring wildfire smoke and extreme heat events. Those in the northeastern and south-central regions of British Columbia tended to experience more frequent and intense exposure.

    When we dug a bit more into the characteristics of these highly exposed communities, we found that they were primarily located in rural and remote regions of the province, often with lower socioeconomic status and a higher proportion of susceptible populations, such as older adults.

    These types of communities tend to have lower resilience and adaptability to climate hazards, with reduced access to the resources necessary to follow public health guidance and reduce their exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat.

    Preparing for hotter and smokier summers

    Our findings, together with evidence of amplified health risks, make it clear that Canada needs to prepare for hotter and smokier summers. There is also a clear need to increase the resilience and adaptive capacity of rural and remote communities in certain regions of British Columbia.

    To do so, we need to invest in strategies that account for the unique ways in which a community experiences wildfire smoke and extreme heat as well as their specific needs and susceptibilities.

    While Health Canada and the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control provide guidance on actions to take when exposed to wildfire smoke and extreme heat together, a recent review of public health guidance on simultaneous exposure to smoke and heat found that the current messaging is often incomplete and inconsistent. This unclear messaging can make it difficult for communities to adequately plan and prepare for these recurrent and intense climate hazards.

    Additionally, a lot of the strategies that cities currently rely on to reduce exposure to smoke or heat do not account for the complex world of multiple hazards. For example, cities often open cooling centres during periods of extreme heat to provide access to air conditioning, but these centres don’t always have air filtration.

    Similarly, cities often designate cleaner air spaces during periods of wildfire smoke to provide access to clean indoor air, but these spaces don’t always have air conditioning.

    Moving forward, Canada needs to invest in co-ordinated public health guidance and adaptation strategies that serve multiple purposes and account for the numerous climate hazards that communities face each year. In doing so, we can better protect the health and well-being of the communities that are experiencing increasingly frequent and intense wildfire smoke and extreme heat events.

    Stephanie Cleland receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research

    – ref. Wildfire smoke and extreme heat can occur together: Preparing for the combined health effects of a hot, smoky future – https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-and-extreme-heat-can-occur-together-preparing-for-the-combined-health-effects-of-a-hot-smoky-future-252245

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Lady Gaga acts as a custodian of hope

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By M. Tina Dacin, Stephen J.R. Smith Chaired Professor of Strategy & Organizational Behaviour, Queen’s University, Ontario

    In an age of cynicism and despair, Lady Gaga’s recent Coachella performance “The Art of Personal Chaos” brings audiences hope.

    Over two weekends, audiences were treated to a visually lavish set, flawless choreography and strong vocals. Gaga’s performance in five acts — staged for fans as an opera house set in the Indio, California desert — was a self-reflexive event exploring many influences upon the singer.

    Gaga’s performance paid homage to past greats such as Michael Jackson and Prince as well as her different past selves. From donning armour and crutches from her “Paparazzi” persona to her Fame-era look, Gaga showed that where she is today follows and emerges from every iteration of her artistic identity over the years.

    The evocation and embodiment of her different selves suggested not only a journey of mixed emotions and struggles regarding fame, but her negotiation and resolution of these struggles as pathways into a promising future.

    In a recent interview, Gaga highlights that for her, despite emotional struggles and pain, reflexiveness, acceptance and forward thinking can yield eventual peace and happiness.

    For me as scholar who researches organizations, Gaga’s performance is an allegory of the need for stewarding change and transition in today’s world.

    Allegory of the need to steward change

    In my work with organizational scholars Peter Dacin and Derin Kent, we suggest that people involved in stewarding change and transition in organizations are “custodians” — people with a vested interest in protecting traditions, while also re-imagining and renewing them over time.

    Lady Gaga, ‘Vanish Into You,’ Coachella 2025 Livestream Feed.

    As our work argues, custodians are agents of maintaining the best aspects of cultural continuity, as well as change. Such custodians in workplaces or social organizations facing disruption take valued remnants from the past and curate them to be accessible and relevant for the future.

    Gaga’s performance reminds us how artists may be understood to serve this role for society at large. This leads us to view Gaga as an architect of future possibility, a “custodian of hope.”

    Cultivating expectations, visions

    Custodians of hope are deliberately prospective — meaning, they cultivate expectations and concrete visions for the future.

    They craft futures that are worth preserving. They do this by translating current and past practices through renewal and reinvention and by keeping things continually refreshed. Gaga did this by reimagining her past hits during her performance and by injecting them with a new and renewed sense of energy and style.

    As writer Coleman Spilde’s brilliant review in Salon noted, Gaga’s performance reminds us that in a world where it is easy to feel defeated, “beauty is not lost; its just harder to find.”

    Throughout several of the numbers performed during her Coachella set, Gaga showed that existing in the present is not so simple. Battles are fought and choices must be made. By embodying resilience, Gaga gives us hope and inspiration that in a world full of volatility and despair, small acts of resistance and emotional contagion can craft and re-craft the future.

    The past is a resource for renewal

    According to recent research by organizational studies scholars Matthias Wenzel, Hannes Krämer, Jochen Koch and Andreas Reckwitz, people can work to make alternative futures that are not strictly bound to the past but still align with their values. We shouldn’t just passively allow the future to unfold: we need to be intentional about crafting truly desirable futures, as suggested by organizational scholars Ali Aslan Gümüsay and Juliane Reinecke.

    As my research with entrepreneurship scholar Nico Klenner examines, custodians of hope care for the past while projecting the past into futures they and others desire.

    Yet Gaga goes beyond merely preserving tradition. As a custodian, Gaga curates the past, showing us that tradition is not simply the weight or remnant of the past. Bits of the past are reworked and recrafted as she selectively incorporates past styles of Prince and Michael Jackson into her performance as well as nods to fashion moments of her varied personas.

    As expressed by a fan on Tik Tok, dance moves choreographed during “Shadow of a Man” are reminiscent of Michael Jackson. The past becomes a valuable resource for renewal and re-invention moving us towards what might be.

    Evoke emotion to enlist others

    However, invoking the past is not enough. To realize change, custodians need to evoke emotion to enlist others. As sociologist Ann Mische suggests, hope is ultimately an emotion of possibility.

    As a custodian of hope, Gaga takes audiences through an emotionally laden and inclusive journey that reminds us how struggles can be overcome through acts of confrontation, defiance and resilience. For example, during her performance of “Poker Face” performed on a chess board, Gaga confronts a blond figure, an earlier version of her past self.

    Early on in her second performance at Coachella, Gaga experienced a wireless microphone failure and grabbed a connected mic and exclaimed “I’m sorry my mic was broken for a second; At least you know I sing live; And I guess all we can do is our best; I’m definitely giving you my best tonight; I love you so much,” sending the crowd into an uproar.

    The audience experienced a collective sense of resilience or effervescence, in what seemed to be a public celebration of generosity and improvisation above perfection.

    Collective sense of care

    Through interactivity with the audience via the live performance and livestream, fans are drawn in to co-imagine the future not through Lady Gaga but with her. Asking the crowd to raise their “monster paws” signals encouragement and support highlighting the importance of a sense of collective care.

    In addition to evoking emotion, Gaga reminded us of the importance of anchoring her vision for the future in the collective sense of care embedded in the Born This Way Foundation. For example, her #BeKind365 platform has logged millions of acts of kindness since its inception. This shows how value can be generated through structured supports or programs that link positive emotion with specific and concrete acts.

    Gaga curates as well as extends the past through renewal and reinvention to enlist new believers into a plausible path forward. Her performance underscores that hope is not a one-off moment but rather, an ongoing custodial effort of curating and reconciling the past towards a kinder and more authentic future.

    M. Tina Dacin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Lady Gaga acts as a custodian of hope – https://theconversation.com/how-lady-gaga-acts-as-a-custodian-of-hope-255209

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Stress, not identity, drives riskier cannabis use among sexually diverse youth, new study finds

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kira London-Nadeau, Postdoctoral Pediatric Research Fellow, Université de Montréal

    Cannabis is undoubtedly a polarizing substance. On one side: a century of restrictive laws made cannabis illegal. This was based on little science. On the other side: a torrent of wellness claims encourage consumers to buy cannabis products. These claims are also based on little science.

    With cannabis discourse evolving so rapidly, informed decisions about its use can be challenging. These questions are important for 20- to 24-year-olds, one in three of whom report using cannabis in the past year.

    Are there risks involved for these cannabis users?

    The good news is that an increasing amount of research is available to guide both individuals and policymakers. Our new study, which examines cannabis use among young adults, contributes to this body of information. We provide insights into what may increase risk, and which young people are more likely to experience this risk.

    What makes cannabis use risky?

    First, using cannabis doesn’t necessarily lead to problems for those who use. In fact, many people experience different benefits from their cannabis use — that’s why they use it in the first place.

    At the same time, about five per cent of people who use cannabis in Canada are at risk for addiction and other harms.

    Why, then, do some people develop these problems while others don’t?

    Cannabis use can look very different from person to person depending on aspects like frequency, reasons for use, social contexts (whether you’re using alone or with others) and quantity. In our recent study, we found that certain characteristics tend to be linked to cannabis use problems.

    These include:

    • Using alone

    • Using multiple times per week

    • Using more than two grams per session

    • Using to cope with negative feelings

    • Using to make activities more pleasurable

    • Using to have new experiences

    Our findings echo other research, especially when it comes to frequency, using to cope and using alone. This highlights how cannabis use problems don’t happen in a vacuum: they’re part of a more complex pattern of use.

    The impact on sexually diverse youth

    To complicate things further, various groups of young people may be more or less at risk of falling into these patterns. Of particular interest are sexually diverse youth (for example, lesbian, gay, bisexual or queer youth), as they are more likely both to use cannabis, and to develop problems linked to their use.

    Our analysis revealed a striking difference: sexually diverse youth were three times more likely than heterosexual youth to have riskier patterns of cannabis use.

    This does not reflect any inherent differences between these groups. Rather, sexually diverse youth also reported higher stress levels, and this is what explained their riskier cannabis use.

    We also explored other explanations.

    For instance, sexually diverse youth also experience more depression and anxiety, and this has been linked to cannabis use. However, even when taking depression and anxiety into consideration — which were higher among sexually diverse youth in our study — stress stood out as the key association with risky cannabis use.

    Recognizing the role of stress in cannabis use disparities among sexually diverse youth is not new.

    In fact, the most prominent reason put forward to explain these disparities is that sexually diverse youth face an additional challenge in their lives identified as “minority stress.” Minority stress refers to the collection of health consequences resulting from marginalization, ranging from outright discrimination to internalizing negative messages about oneself.

    Minority stressors have been linked to cannabis use among sexually diverse youth. However, our study reveals something a bit different. We found that more general sources of stress — like not feeling in control of one’s life or being overwhelmed by unexpected events — were key in predicting riskier use.

    Better mental health support is key

    The bottom line is that sexually diverse youth are facing more challenges and stress than their heterosexual counterparts.

    With growing sociopolitical violence against LGBTQ+ people in the United States and increasing anti-LGBTQ+ sentiments in Canada, these disparities are likely to become even more pronounced.

    Marginalization spreads in insidious ways. For sexually diverse youth, this means not only having more stress to cope with, but also fewer adequate, safe mental health resources. Indeed, sexually diverse youth face many barriers when it comes to accessing mental health services.

    What our study underscores then, is that cannabis use can become a key way of coping when stress is high and other options for support are unavailable.

    There are lots of ways that cannabis use can be lower risk: using less often, using with others rather than alone, using less at a time, and having other methods aside from cannabis to cope with negative feelings.

    However, these options must be available to sexually diverse youth. The implication therefore becomes clear: if we want to tackle disparities around cannabis use problems, we must improve mental health support for sexually diverse youth.

    It’s essential we don’t lose sight of the uneven terrain young people are navigating — especially those already facing elevated stress due to social marginalization. Risk isn’t inherent to cannabis, but it emerges in context. Our findings underscore the need for accessible, affirming mental health resources that can offer real alternatives to coping through substance use.

    Kira London-Nadeau receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Fonds de recherche du Québec – Santé. She is affiliated with project Voxcann.

    Charlie Rioux received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Quebec Health Research Fund, and Research Manitoba.

    Natalie Castellanos-Ryan receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Fonds de recherche du Québec – Santé.

    – ref. Stress, not identity, drives riskier cannabis use among sexually diverse youth, new study finds – https://theconversation.com/stress-not-identity-drives-riskier-cannabis-use-among-sexually-diverse-youth-new-study-finds-255206

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten Canadians’ access to prescription drugs

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Joel Lexchin, Professor Emeritus of Health Policy and Management, York University, Canada

    If the United States imposes 25 per cent tariffs on exports from Canada, nearly all economists agree a recession is inevitable. Estimates are that between 600,000 to 2.4 million jobs are at risk.

    Based on previous recessions, the unemployment rate could rise to 10 per cent and stay stuck at that level for some time.

    Adding insult to injury, about 55 per cent of Canadians are covered by employer-sponsored drug plans, which means that when these workers get laid off, they also lose their health benefits, including prescription drug insurance tied to their jobs.

    Affordability of prescription drugs

    During the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Statistics Canada, about one-fifth of the population reported not having insurance to cover prescription medications. This coincided with a soaring unemployment rate that peaked at 13.7 per cent in May 2020. The problem of not having insurance for prescription medications was especially acute among immigrants and racialized people. These are the same groups of people that will be at the highest risk of any recession-linked job losses.

    Unsurprisingly, 23 per cent of those without insurance spent more than $500 out-of-pocket in 2022 on prescription drugs compared to 10 per cent for those with insurance. Canadians in the lowest income quintile spent more money on prescription drugs in absolute terms than those in the highest income quintile ($296 versus $268) in 2009, and it’s unlikely this disparity has significantly changed.

    Already there are estimates that the lack of access to prescription drugs leads to 370 to 640 premature deaths due to ischemic heart disease, 550 to 670 premature deaths from all causes among people 55-64 years of age and avoidable deterioration in health status in 70,000 people age 55 and over.

    When Canadians must choose between buying prescription drugs and paying for food and rent, it’s often no contest; patients skip their medications and suffer the consequences. The result is additional physician visits, more visits to already overcrowded emergency departments and more admissions to hospitals.

    Tariffs and drug prices

    Added to the threat of losing prescription drug coverage with job loss is the very real possibility that drug prices will increase. Thirty-two per cent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients that go into the medicines that North Americans take originate in China. U.S President Donald Trump has now threatened to slap U.S. tariffs on Chinese drugs and drug ingredients that were previously exempt.

    Canada already imports $8.76 billion annually in prescription drugs from the U.S. To the extent that tariffed drugs go from China to the U.S. to Canada, the cost of both publicly and privately funded drug plans will increase.

    Those people at the bottom of the income scale who pay out-of-pocket — and can least afford to pay more — will be saddled with those higher prices. If Canada follows the U.S. in imposing tariffs on drugs made in China, as we have done with electric vehicles, then the price of generic drugs made in Canada from Chinese ingredients will also rise.

    We can hope that any tariffs — on Canada or China — will be only temporary and we can avoid the ongoing effects on both access to prescription drugs and their price. But given Trump’s volatility and unpredictability, we can’t rely on that outcome.

    With the passage in October 2024 of Canada’s new Pharmacare Act, the government of Canada committed to “making sure that you can get the medications you need, no matter where you live or your ability to pay.” We need to expand Canada’s federal pharmacare plan to cover all Canadians for all medically necessary drugs. Indeed, the need has never been as acute.

    So far, only three provinces (British Columbia, Manitoba and Price Edward Island) and one territory (Yukon) have signed agreements with the federal government to cover contraceptives and diabetes drugs and devices — the only products currently covered under Bill C-64. The remaining provinces and territories urgently need to sign on. Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals must decisively commit to expanding the range of drugs that is covered by pharmacare.

    All the provincial, territorial and federal leaders have pledged to protect Canadians from U.S. tariffs. Expanding pharmacare is part of that protection.

    Between 2022-2025, Joel Lexchin received payments for writing a brief for a legal firm on the role of promotion in generating prescriptions, for being on a panel about pharmacare and for co-writing an article for a peer-reviewed medical journal. He is a member of the Boards of Canadian Doctors for Medicare and the Canadian Health Coalition. He receives royalties from University of Toronto Press and James Lorimer & Co. Ltd. for books he has written. He has received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research in the past.

    – ref. How Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten Canadians’ access to prescription drugs – https://theconversation.com/how-donald-trumps-tariffs-threaten-canadians-access-to-prescription-drugs-255581

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –