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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Almost Zion: Remembering a short-lived Jewish state in New York

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Adam L. Rovner, Director of the Center for Judaic Studies, University of Denver

    Twin bridges spanning the Niagara River lead from Tonawanda to Grand Island, New York — the proposed site of ‘Ararat.’ Kevin Menschel/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    At dawn on Sept. 15, 1825, a burst of cannon fire shook the ramshackle buildings of Buffalo, New York. Families raced down the main street to witness a grand ceremony, following a parade of soldiers, clergymen, Freemasons, musicians and Seneca tribesmen, including their venerable chief, Red Jacket. All surged toward St. Paul’s Episcopal Church, the frontier town’s only grand edifice.

    Inside, a crowd of Christians, Jews and Native Americans were already packed together to witness the founding of Ararat, a tract of land on nearby Grand Island that was intended to be the first autonomous Jewish city-state in almost 1,800 years.

    Ararat’s 400-pound cornerstone, engraved with a central Jewish tenet of faith from the Bible’s Book of Deuteronomy, rested inside the church. When the swell of the organ died down, former diplomat, political power broker and playwright Mordecai Manuel Noah – the man who had dreamed up Ararat – rose to his feet.

    Today, this marker is one of the few surviving signs of the proposed settlement.
    Adam Rovner

    Described as a “stout … gentleman, with sandy hair, a large Roman nose, and … red whiskers,” Noah had draped himself for the ceremony in fur-trimmed robes borrowed from a theater. He triumphantly announced the reestablishment of “the Government of the Jewish Nation … under the auspices and protection of the constitution and laws of the United States of America.”

    Noah also welcomed Native Americans, whom he – like many Americans at the time – mistakenly believed were “the descendants of the lost tribes of Israel.” In addition, he granted equal “rights and religious privileges” to the “black Jews of India and Africa,” disclosing a rare-for-his-time sensitivity toward Jews of color.

    A portrait of Mordecai Noah by 19th-century painter John Wood Dodge.
    Smithsonian American Art Museum via Wikimedia Commons

    But Noah’s utopian ark sank with barely a trace. Not a single Jew heeded his call to settle Ararat. Noah himself abandoned ship when his calls for a Jewish republic were rebuffed by religious leaders. All that he left behind was the cornerstone.

    As a scholar who scours archives to trace connections between literature and history, I’ve seen how Noah’s efforts to found a Jewish statelet have fascinated students of both American and Zionist history.

    Noah was only the first of many modern thinkers to propose establishing Jewish territories far from the biblical land of Israel. In the 20th century, organizations seeking a humanitarian solution to Jewish persecution considered carving out enclaves the world over, including lands in today’s Kenya, Angola, Madagascar, Tasmania and Suriname.

    ‘City of refuge’

    Noah wielded considerable influence in early 19th-century America through his roles as a political party boss, helming various daily newspapers, and as a popular playwright. But he was also a marginalized outsider at a time when there were fewer than 500 Jews in Manhattan, the young republic’s largest city.

    Noah used his press pulpit to demand equality for Jews, even proposing himself as a presidential candidate. He remained one of few high-profile American Jews throughout his life, urging other citizens to acknowledge that one’s faith and patriotism need never be at odds. Yet antisemitic slurs dogged him throughout his career.

    After witnessing the persecution of Jews in Europe during his diplomatic travels, Noah hoped Ararat would be a territorial solution to religious oppression.

    ‘Noah’s Ark,’ by 19th-century American painter Edward Hicks.
    Philadelphia Museum of Art via Wikimedia Commons

    In some ways, his efforts hearkened back to the origins of America itself. Instead of the Mayflower, Noah invoked the symbolic ark of his biblical namesake – “Ararat” is the biblical name of the mountain where the ark came to a rest after the flood. In the role of the Puritans, he cast European Jewry. And instead of Plymouth Rock, he landed on Grand Island. As the cornerstone of Ararat proclaimed, the settlement was to be a “city of refuge for the Jews” – one that Noah hoped would grow to become a state and be admitted to the American republic.

    In his speeches, Noah imagined that Ararat would allow European Jews to escape persecution while simultaneously fulfilling America’s need for immigration, industry and financial capital. He also believed that his purchase of 2,555 acres of Grand Island would prove a lucrative personal investment: The recently completed Erie Canal, he reasoned, would make Buffalo a major port.

    Failure to launch

    At the time of Noah’s proposal, the Zionist movement – the modern political program for Jewish national self-determination – had not yet coalesced. Most Jews at the time believed that founding a Jewish state in the land of Israel was a pipe dream, or worse. God had expelled their ancestors from the Holy Land in 70 C.E., they believed, so taking matters into their own hands and rebuilding a Jewish state there would be blasphemy.

    Noah hoped to sidestep those theological objections by locating a Jewish polity in the promised land of America, not the biblical promised land. Nonetheless, Jewish leaders dismissed his vision as contrary to God’s will. The chief rabbis of England and France publicly condemned Noah’s plan, and the September 1825 ceremony in Buffalo proved Ararat’s high point.

    Though ridiculed in the press for Ararat’s failure, Noah took a philosophical view:

    I … stand as the pioneer of the great work, leaving others to complete it. … When sneers and mockery shall have had their day … then my motives and objects will have been duly estimated and rewarded.“

    The front page of one of Mordecai Noah’s books, published in 1819.
    Library of Congress via Wikimedia Commons

    Birth of Zionism

    Noah quickly resumed his career as a journalist and emerged as a kind of ambassador, penning articles and delivering speeches that linked Jewish and Christian America. To Christians, he explained Jewish practices. To his brethren, he demonstrated the fundamental compatibility between the ideals of Judaism and the United States, assuring them that America “is the country which the Almighty has blessed,” a land in which Jews “may repose in safety and happiness.”

    Yet Noah never abandoned his plans for Jewish self-government and ultimately advocated national repatriation to areas of Palestine, then under Ottoman control. In 1845 he published a short book, “Discourse on the Restoration of the Jews.” A young journalist whom he had befriended, Edgar Allan Poe, praised Noah’s proposal for a Jewish return to the biblical land of Israel as “extraordinary [and] full of novel and cogent thought.”

    Noah did not live to see his dreams fulfilled. After his death in March 1851, nearly 50 years passed before another playwright and journalist resurrected the idea of Jewish political autonomy: Theodor Herzl.

    Herzl’s vision laid the groundwork for the establishment of the state of Israel. Today, he is considered the father of Zionism, with his image paraded on Israeli Independence Day.

    Paradoxically, Noah is remembered today thanks only to the spectacular failure of his American Zion.

    Adam L. Rovner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Almost Zion: Remembering a short-lived Jewish state in New York – https://theconversation.com/almost-zion-remembering-a-short-lived-jewish-state-in-new-york-253534

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Spider-Man’s lessons for us all on the responsibility to use our power, great or small, to do good

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By George Tsakiridis, Senior Lecturer of Philosophy and Religion, South Dakota State University

    A large statue of Spider-Man at a mall in Dubai. Giuseppe Cacace AFP via Getty Images

    As a child, I watched reruns of the 1967 Spider-Man cartoon on television. I was drawn to the action and colors and, of course, the catchy tune. This was my early introduction to Spider-Man, as it was for many children who grew up in the 1960s-’80s.

    Spidey, as he is affectionately called, was a huge part of popular culture. The Spider-Man story was first released in 1962 as part of another comic book, Marvel’s Amazing Fantasy (192) #15. A year later he became his own title character, branching out into cartoons, merchandising and feature films. In other words, Spider-Man became ubiquitous.

    With the advent of films featuring him in 2002, however, Spider-Man reached an entirely new level of influence, so much so that academic interest in him increased. I edited a 2021 book in which I wrote a chapter about Spider-Man’s creeds – his main sets of beliefs, or one might say his religion: “Theology and Spider-Man.”

    A phrase that has appeared in various forms in Spider-Man lore – “with great power comes great responsibility” – is an example of such a creedal statement. I examine how this one phrase can resonate with readers and viewers to such a degree that it shapes their everyday lives and makes Spider-Man a moral exemplar to many of us.

    More broadly, however, I believe that as a moral exemplar, Spider-Man exemplifies the struggle for virtue that most of us face every day.

    Spider-Man is relatable

    Moral exemplars are figures who transcend the average human experience, achieving extraordinary feats in pursuit of virtue. They serve as models for others to follow. They can be historical figures or people we interact with every day.

    A 2017 study led by educational psychology scholar Hyemin Han states moral exemplars influence others because their stories seem relevant and attainable. The study shows evidence that people are more likely to respond to a peer’s example of good behavior and be motivated by that. This means that role models who feel relatable to our daily lives tend to have the greatest impact.

    I would argue that Marvel superheroes and the films they have inspired are popular because we see ourselves in these stories. These characters are the sort of moral exemplars that can influence our behavior because we identify with them so closely.

    Spider-Man particularly fits this bill. Peter Parker is a teenager who unexpectedly gains superhuman power. In this transformation, he is forced to struggle with moral behavior on a higher level because he now has newfound abilities to do things normal humans cannot. He can use his powers for good or selfish ends, and the effects are much more damaging than for a normal person.

    Spider-Man is popular because many people identify with him closely.
    Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

    Moral exemplars are connected in a fundamental way to virtue ethics – a framework of behavior based in core virtues such as honesty, bravery and kindness. Virtue ethics focuses on building character within versus following a set of rules.

    Moral exemplars are the people who represent virtue ethics in its purest form. They are the most virtuous in their character, displaying what all humans should aspire to when practicing virtue ethics. The virtuous hero is the one we emulate and build our own character around, being a representative of a virtuous life.

    Spidey is a perfect moral exemplar because he is relatable. He is one of us. He has limitations but invites us to work beyond them.

    Morality is Spider-Man’s strength

    In the 2021 film “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” Spidey is confronted with the choice of using his power for good or for revenge. As a portal opens to other dimensions, he encounters a number of villains from past films, including the Green Goblin from the 2002 film.

    In contrast to the Green Goblin, Spidey chooses to use his power for good. Green Goblin kills Aunt May because he wants Spidey to embrace the power he has and use it for selfish means. Aunt May serves as a moral foundation for Peter Parker, and with her gone, perhaps the Goblin sees an opportunity for Spidey to embrace power for power’s sake. He tells Spidey, “Morality is your weakness.”

    Spider-Man must struggle with the temptation to kill the Goblin in a fit of revenge – exactly the kind of self-serving thinking that the Green Goblin himself encourages. Green Goblin is the anti-moral exemplar. He embraces power and vice, while Spidey embraces doing good for others. Earlier in the film, the Goblin states, “Gods don’t have to choose; we take.” For the Goblin, there is no real morality. His power entitles him to any action.

    On the contrary, Spider-Man sees his power as a gift to be used – “with great power comes great responsibility.” Spider-Man continually sacrifices the joy in his life – his relationships, his health and his family – in order to fight villains and protect the innocent. This is practicing virtue ethics at a high level, one that reaches the status of a moral exemplar.

    Spidey’s determination to use his power for good arises out of his origin story in the original narrative found in Amazing Fantasy #15. Spider-Man feels a strong sense of guilt and responsibility due to his uncle’s death, which he feels is the result of his inaction. Thus he is committed to using his power for good.

    At first, he uses his abilities to make money wrestling or finding fame on television. In the aftermath of a television appearance, however, he allows a thief to escape because he doesn’t feel morally responsible to stop him. As the thief escapes, Spidey states, “From now on I just look out for number one – that means – me!” Soon after, he finds that same thief has killed his uncle.

    It is out of this origin story that is born his adoption of the phrase “with great power comes great responsibility.” His uncle’s death was necessary for his moral tranformation.

    Spider-Man shows us that moral responsibility does not go away just because one has power. It is in this lesson that Spider-Man exemplifies morality for us. He becomes a moral exemplar.

    George Tsakiridis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Spider-Man’s lessons for us all on the responsibility to use our power, great or small, to do good – https://theconversation.com/spider-mans-lessons-for-us-all-on-the-responsibility-to-use-our-power-great-or-small-to-do-good-248529

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Whooping cough is making a comeback, but the vaccine provides powerful protection

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Annette Regan, Adjunct Associate Professor of Epidemiology, University of California, Los Angeles

    Infants can get vaccinated against whooping cough starting at 6 weeks of age. Hill Street Studios/Corbis via Getty Images

    Whooping cough, a bacterial infection that can be especially dangerous for babies and young children, is on the rise. Already in 2025 the U.S. has recorded 8,485 cases. That’s compared with 4,266 cases during the same period in 2024.

    Like measles, which is also spreading at unprecedented levels, whooping cough, more formally known as pertussis, can be prevented by a safe
    and effective vaccine. But with anti-vaccine sentiment increasing and cuts to immunization services, vaccination rates for whooping cough over the past two years have declined in children.

    The Conversation asked epidemiologist Annette Regan to explain why pertussis has become so prevalent and how families can protect themselves from the disease.

    What is pertussis and why is it dangerous?

    Pertussis is a vaccine-preventable disease caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis. Researchers in France first identified the B. pertussis bacterium in 1906. The first recorded epidemic of pertussis is thought to have occurred in Paris in 1578.

    Infection can cause an acute respiratory illness characterized by severe and spasmodic coughing spells. The classic symptom of pertussis is a “whoop” sound caused by someone trying to breath during a bad cough. Severe complications of pertussis include slowed or stopped breathing, pneumonia and seizures. The disease is most severe in young babies, although severe cases and deaths can also occur in older children and adults.

    Some doctors call pertussis “the 100-day cough” because symptoms can linger for weeks or even months.

    The World Health Organization estimates that 24.1 million pertussis cases and 160,700 deaths occur worldwide in children under 5 each year. Pertussis is highly contagious. Upon exposure, 80% of people who have not been previously exposed to the bacterium or vaccinated against the disease will develop an infection.

    Fortunately, the disease is largely preventable with a safe and effective vaccine, which was first licensed in the U.S. in 1914.

    Whooping cough causes violent fits of coughing that can make it difficult to inhale.

    How do cases last year and this year compare with past years?

    During the COVID-19 pandemic between 2020 and 2022, pertussis cases were lower than usual. This may have been a result of limited social contact due to social distancing, masking, school closures and lockdown measures, which reduced the spread of disease overall.

    In the past two years, however, pertussis cases have surpassed figures from before the pandemic. In 2024, local and state public health agencies reported 35,435 pertussis cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – a rate five times higher than the 7,063 cases reported in 2023 and nearly double the 18,617 cases reported in 2019 prior to the pandemic.

    Between October 2024 and April 2025, at least four people in the U.S. have died of pertussis: two infants, one school-age child and one adult.

    Why are pertussis cases rising?

    Although vaccines have resulted in a dramatic decline in pertussis infections in the U.S., incidence of the disease has been rising since the 1990s, except for a brief dip during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Before the start of routine childhood vaccination for pertussis in 1947, its rates hovered between 100,000 and 200,000 cases per year. With vaccines, rates plunged under 50,000 annually by the late 1950s and under 10,000 per year in the late 1960s. They reached a low of 1,010 cases in 1976.

    Starting in the 1980s and 1990s, however, the U.S. and several other countries have been seeing a steady resurgence of pertussis cases, which have exceeded 10,000 cases in the U.S. every year from 2003 to 2019. They dropped again during the pandemic until last year’s resurgence.

    There is no single explanation for why cases have been rising recently, but several factors probably contribute. First, pertussis naturally occurs in cyclic epidemics, peaking every two to five years. It is possible that the U.S. is headed into one of these peaks after a period of low activity between 2020 and 2022. However, some scientists have noted that the increase in cases is larger than what would be expected during a usual peak.

    A public health worker processes blood samples during a whooping cough outbreak in Ohio in December 2010.
    National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

    Some scientists have noted that this apparent resurgence correlates with a change in the type of vaccine used in children. Until the 1990s, the pertussis vaccine contained whole, killed B. pertussis bacteria cells. Whole-cell vaccine can stimulate a long-lasting immune response, but it is also more likely to cause fever and other vaccine reactions in children.

    In the 1990s, national vaccine programs began to transition to a vaccine that contains purified components of the bacterial cell but not the whole cell. Some scientists now believe that although this partial-cell vaccine is less likely to cause high fevers in children, it provides protection for a shorter time. Immunity after whole-cell vaccination is thought to last 10-12 years compared with three to five years after the partial-cell vaccine. This means people may become susceptible to infection more quickly after vaccination.

    Vaccination rates are also not as high as they should be and have started falling in children since 2020. In the U.S., the percent of kindergartners who are up to date with recommended pertussis vaccines has declined from 95% during the 2019-20 school year to 92% in the 2023-24 school year. Even fewer adolescents receive a booster dose.

    How can people protect themselves and their families?

    Routine vaccination for children starting in infancy followed by booster doses in adolescents and adults can help keep immunity high.

    Public health experts recommend that children receive five doses of the pertussis vaccine. According to the recommendations, they should receive the first three doses at 2, 4 and 6 months of age, then two additional doses at 15 months and 4 years of age, with the aim of providing protection through early adolescence.

    Infants younger than 6 weeks are not old enough to get a pertussis vaccine but are at the greatest risk of severe illness from pertussis. Vaccination during pregnancy can offer protection from birth due to antibodies that pass from the mother to the developing fetus. Many countries, including the U.S., now recommend that women receive one dose of pertussis vaccine between the 27th and 36th week of every pregnancy to protect their babies.

    To maintain protection against pertussis after childhood, a booster dose of pertussis vaccine is recommended for adolescents at 11 to 12 years of age. The CDC recommends that all adults receive at least one booster dose.

    The pertussis vaccine’s protction wanes over time, so public health experts recommend a booster around age 11 or 12.
    SELF Magazine via flickr, CC BY

    Because immunity declines over time, people who are in contact with infants and other high-risk groups, such as caregivers, parents and grandparents, may benefit from additional booster doses. When feasible, the CDC also recommends a booster dose for adults 65 years and older.

    Vaccine safety studies over the past 80 years have proven the pertussis vaccine to be safe. Around 20% to 40% of vaccinated infants experience local reactions, such as pain, redness and swelling at the vaccination site, and 3% to 5% of vaccinated infants experience a low-grade fever. More severe reactions are much less common and occur in fewer than 1% of vaccinated infants.

    The vaccine is also highly effective: For the first year after receiving all five doses of the pertussis vaccine, 98% of children are protected from pertussis. Five years after the fifth dose, 65% of vaccinated children remain protected.

    Booster vaccination during adolescence protects 74% of teens against pertussis, and booster vaccination during pregnancy protects 91% to 94% of immunized babies against hospitalization due to pertussis.

    Families can talk to their regular health care providers about whether a pertussis vaccine is needed for their child, themselves or other family members.

    Annette Regan receives funding from the National Institutes of Health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Global Vaccine Data Network.

    – ref. Whooping cough is making a comeback, but the vaccine provides powerful protection – https://theconversation.com/whooping-cough-is-making-a-comeback-but-the-vaccine-provides-powerful-protection-254647

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Trump promotes a radical, unscientific theory about sex and gender in the name of opposing ‘gender ideology extremism’

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ina Seethaler, Associate Professor and Director of Women’s and Gender Studies, Coastal Carolina University

    Sexual diversity has been documented in every species in the animal kingdom, including among humans. smartboy10/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

    The Trump administration claims to be rooting out “gender ideology extremism” and “restoring biological truth” in the United States.

    In a January 2025 executive order, President Donald Trump decreed that there are only two genders – male and female – and that anyone who believes differently denies “the biological reality of sex.”

    Yet as a gender studies scholar, I know what the science really says about gender and sex.

    Most researchers in my field, as well as those in other disciplines such as sociology and biology, agree that biological sex is vastly more complicated than solely the two variants of male and female. Sexual diversity has been documented among all animals, including humans.

    Trump’s claim otherwise is itself a gender “ideology” – that is, a set of beliefs and values about gender.

    Sex and gender are not the same thing

    Experts in many disciplines have shown how gender is different from sex. Sex refers to bodily attributes such as genitals, hormones and chromosomes; gender is made up of the norms, roles, behaviors and expectations people are supposed to comply with based on the culture and society they live in.

    As such, gender is socially constructed – that is, defined by a community’s beliefs and rituals. In other words, gender does not follow biology. Instead, people have what’s called a “gender identity” – an internal sense of themselves as masculine, feminine or somewhere in-between.

    There are many ways in which gender and sex don’t necessarily line up.

    Among humans, a conservative estimate by the United Nations suggests that up to 1.7% of the world’s population are intersex, meaning their bodies vary from what has been labeled typical combinations of chromosomes, hormones and genitals.

    Intersex rights advocates have long pushed for medical treatment that reflects this fact, rather than common expectations of the human body. Recognition of gender and sex diversity can significantly reduce the stigma and trauma of being an intersex person.

    In the animal kingdom, female spotted hyenas have a penis. Male seahorses get pregnant.

    It took biologists a long time to figure out that some male animals do things that defy socially determined understandings of masculinity. But once they did, groundbreaking insights into the complexity of evolutionary processes have emerged.

    By labeling the concept of gender identity as an “ideology,” the Trump administration has reduced all people – but especially transgender and nonbinary people – to a belief system, ignoring their complex human identities.

    Don’t tell this dad he can’t give birth. A seahorse couple at the New England Acquarium’s 2009 Pregnant Male Seahorse exhibit.
    Matt Stone/MediaNewsGroup/Boston Herald via Getty Images

    What is gender ideology, really?

    Trump’s executive order on gender is itself based on a gender ideology called “biological determinism” – the belief that there are only two genders and that the sex assigned at birth permanently determines one’s role in society.

    This ideology dismisses research and data that document the complexity of human life. This can have serious social consequences.

    Because adherents of biological determinism see sex and gender as one and the same, they generally want to ban puberty blockers, hormone therapy and other gender-affirming health care for trans youth. These are important and sometimes lifesaving treatments; the Trump administration and other adherents of their ideology dismiss them as medical malpractice.

    The executive order also claims that enforcing a rigid male-female divide will keep women and girls safe because bathrooms and domestic violence shelters become dangerous for women when transgender people are allowed to use them.

    Research has consistently debunked this notion. Privacy and safety problems have not increased due to the legal recognition of transgender individuals. There is no evidence that cisgender women – that is, those assigned female at birth – should fear violence committed against them by transgender women.

    Biology is not destiny

    Much of my academic work has focused on how societies rooted in biological determinism tend to be patriarchal. They are designed by men for the benefit of men, and men hold most positions of authority.

    Patriarchal countries, including the U.S., tend to value masculinity over femininity. Political and religious leaders, the media and social norms suggest women are weaker than men, more emotional and better suited for care work. As a result, they portray women as less effective leaders than men.

    Historically, these societies have limited women’s sphere of influence to the household. That, in turn, prevented them from widespread access to, and success in, economic, religious and political leadership positions, just to name a few.

    U.S. feminists in the 1960s and 1970s protested the idea that a person’s body should dictate what they can and cannot do with their life. Back then, patriarchal beliefs restricted women’s participation in sports – they weren’t allowed to run marathons – and jobs, with fields such as practicing law and surgery essentially off-limits.

    Women in the U.S. also lacked full bodily autonomy for much of the 20th century. Access to contraception was limited, and terminating a pregnancy was illegal.

    By the 1980s, women had succeeded in convincing much of U.S. society that they had the same abilities and should enjoy the same rights as men. By the early 2000s, they had made great strides toward attaining equality in education, career choice and reproductive freedom, among others.

    Trans people began making similar progress in the 2010s.

    Moving backward

    As the Trump administration reverts to a simplistic interpretation of sex and gender, public debate on these basic social and political rights is reemerging.

    There is legislation at the state and federal level banning transgender women athletes from participating in sports, bills that would make it a crime to identify as transgender and challenges to women serving in combat roles in the U.S. military.

    Abortion, established as a constitutional right in 1973, had that constitutional protection reversed in 2022. Abortion is now outlawed in 12 states; others severely limit the ability to get the procedure.

    Trump signs the ‘No Men in Women’s Sports’ executive order barring transgender women from women’s sports on Feb. 5, 2025. It was his third order targeting transgender people.
    Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

    To enforce Trump’s “gender ideology” executive order, the Department of Veterans Affairs is phasing out gender-affirming health care. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention temporarily scrubbed data about women’s health that has been vital in raising public awareness and fueling ongoing research into aspects of women’s health, such as safe forms of contraception.

    The administration’s policies and ideas are ingrained in a gender ideology that predates the feminist movement of the mid-20th century.

    When asked in court during proceedings in lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of Trump’s executive order, lawyers representing the Trump administration have repeatedly failed to define what exactly the administration is referring to with the term “radical gender ideology.”

    One lawyer, when prompted by a judge, replied that he was “loathe to speculate” what the president means by the phrase.

    In my assessment, the administation’s inability to define “gender ideology” is a meaningful signal. The Trump administration is pursuing, in essence, its own gender ideology masked as anti-gender ideology.

    Ina Seethaler serves on the boards of the Palmetto State Abortion Fund and the Family Justice Center of Horry and Georgetown Counties.

    – ref. How Trump promotes a radical, unscientific theory about sex and gender in the name of opposing ‘gender ideology extremism’ – https://theconversation.com/how-trump-promotes-a-radical-unscientific-theory-about-sex-and-gender-in-the-name-of-opposing-gender-ideology-extremism-250552

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From cats and dogs to penguins and llamas, treating animals with acupuncture has become mainstream in veterinary medicine

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joe Smith, Assistant Professor of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tennessee

    Kevin, a King Charles spaniel, receives acupuncture treatment at a Washington, D.C. animal hospital. Alastair Pike/AFP via Getty Images

    A perentie lizard in Dallas, an African penguin in Boston and an Oberhasli goat in Chicago are just a few recent examples of animals at zoos and aquariums benefiting recently from acupuncture therapy. As acupuncture has gained wide use in human medicine in the U.S., it also has become increasingly common in veterinary practice, especially for pain management.

    The Conversation U.S. interviewed University of Tennessee Assistant Professor of Veterinary Medicine Joe Smith, a specialist in farm animal medicine and veterinary clinical pharmacology, about this trend. He describes acupuncture’s current uses for treating many species, from household dogs and cats to large animals like horses, cows and llamas:

    Is veterinary acupuncture modeled on the traditional Chinese version?

    There are two schools of thought about veterinary acupuncture. The original form of acupuncture, which has been practiced for thousands of years, follows principles of traditional Chinese medicine. It views the patient through a lens of five elements: wood, fire, earth, metal and water.

    Each element is associated with a different type of energy. Practitioners work to maintain balance between those energies, which they believe is essential for a healthy body to function.

    Another approach focuses on anatomical effects on the body. Practitioners place needles to achieve specific effects by stimulating muscles or nerves.

    Both versions of acupuncture can help veterinary patients. They use very small, flexible needles, about two-tenths of a millimeter wide – less than one-hundredth of an inch. The needles are placed at various parts of the body to elicit specific responses from connective tissues, muscles and nerves.

    The needles can be used by themselves, or with low levels of electrical current – a process called electroacupuncture. Both approaches are effective, but research suggests that benefits from electroacupunture last longer.

    Veterinary acupuncturists can treat nearly any animal, from a bear to a porcupine, a dog or a sea turtle.

    What does research show about using acupuncture on animals?

    Acupuncture and electroacupuncture both increase the body’s levels of compounds called endogenous opioids. These are pain-relieving substances that the body produces naturally. They work similarly to pharmaceutical opioids, such as fentanyl and morphine.

    Acupuncture increases these compounds so dramatically that the effect can be reversed with opioid antidotes, such as Narcan.

    Studies in small animal medicine show that using acupuncture can speed up healing from nerve injuries, such as spinal cord damage from herniated disks. This is a condition in which material from the disks in between the vertebra of the spinal cord is damaged, and puts pressure on the spinal cord and other parts of the nervous system.

    Herniated disks can be very painful for animals. A 2023 study found that when dogs with this condition were treated with acupuncture, nearly 80% recovered, compared with 60% of animals whose cases were managed conservatively without acupuncture. Acupuncture can also make other techniques, such as epidural nerve blocks, more effective when both methods are used together.

    Many vets are using acupuncture creatively for other purposes, such as increasing sick animals’ appetites, improving their digestion and accelerating healing from injuries.

    How does your veterinary medicine group use acupuncture?

    Our practice at the University of Tennessee has used acupuncture most extensively to help rehabilitate animals recovering from conditions like radial nerve paralysis and femoral nerve injury. We can use acupuncture to stimulate muscles or to provide pain relief, either by itself or combined with other therapies.

    In our Farm Animal Hospital, we regularly use acupuncture for recumbent or “down” animals. That’s a veterinary term for animals that have been unable to stand for extended periods of time.

    With acupuncture, and occasionally electroacupuncture, we can stimulate muscles and nerves that aren’t functioning normally. This help to prevent atrophy, or wasting and thinning of muscle mass.

    For every day that a large animal is down, its muscles atrophy and fluid builds up around injured limbs or joints. These effects can prolong their recovery, or even make it less likely that they will recover.

    By using acupuncture to stimulate atrophied muscles, veterinarians can start to reverse this process. We have used acupuncture extensively on large animals, including cattle, horses, llamas, alpacas, sheep, goats, pigs and even camels.

    One example is goats that have spinal cord injuries caused by parasite migration – a condition called cerebrospinal nematodiasis, or “meningeal worm.” Worm larvae that normally are parasites of white tail deer infect goats through the animals’ digestive tracts, then migrate to the spinal cord and nervous system. They get lost and die there, causing inflammation that can do significant damage.

    We use acupuncture and electroacupuncture to stimulate the goats’ large and accessory spinal nerves and the muscles in the animals’ legs and backs. This gives the goats more muscle function when the inflammation clears, and we believe it helps reduce their pain.

    We’ve also had good results with acupuncture treatment for llamas and alpacas, which are widely used in Tennessee’s Smokey Mountains to carry tourists’ gear up- and downhill. As large animals like these age, they can develop osteoarthritis, a degenerative joint disease that’s incredibly painful and debilitating for them. Acupuncture and electroacupuncture can help keep them moving.

    Our equine services mainly use acupuncture for rehabilitation, helping horses recover from injuries.

    One advantage of acupuncture and electroacupuncture in large animals is that they don’t have many adverse effects. Drugs can have side effects such as nausea and diarrhea, and may cause potentially serious complications. An acupuncture needle placed by a trained veterinarian has few to no adverse effects when it’s done correctly.

    A crow and an opossum at the Nashville Zoo receive acupuncture treatment for mobility issues.

    Can pet owners be confident if their vet recommends acupuncture?

    If there is a nerve or muscle involved, there is probably a veterinary treatment option using acupuncture or electroacupuncture. New studies regularly add to our understanding of the neurology and biochemistry that underlie these therapies.

    Although we’re still learning, if your vet recommends acupuncture for an aging dog or cat – especially for chronic pain – you can be confident that it’s not a fringe treatment. As long as the person treating your pet is a licensed veterinarian, and is certified by a professional organization like Curacore, Chi University or the American Academy of Veterinary Acupuncture, acupuncture should make your pet more comfortable and improve its quality of life.

    Joe Smith has attended attended Curacore Inc’s Medical Acupuncture for Veterinarians course.

    – ref. From cats and dogs to penguins and llamas, treating animals with acupuncture has become mainstream in veterinary medicine – https://theconversation.com/from-cats-and-dogs-to-penguins-and-llamas-treating-animals-with-acupuncture-has-become-mainstream-in-veterinary-medicine-226451

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor maintains clear lead in all polls and is likely to win election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    Labor leads by between 52–48 and 53–47 in four new national polls from Resolve, Essential, Morgan and DemosAU. While Labor’s vote slumped from a high 55.5–44.5 in Morgan to 53–47, such a slide hasn’t been seen in any other poll. Labor remains the likely winner of the election this Saturday.

    A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted April 23–28 from a sample of 2,010 by online and telephone polling, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the mid-April Resolve poll. Telephone polling by Resolve appears to only be used for their final polls before a federal election.

    Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 8% independents (down four) and 5% others (steady). The 53–47 two-party result was achieved whether preferences were allocated as at the 2022 election or by respondents.

    In this poll, Resolve is using seat-specific candidate lists, which Morgan and YouGov are now also doing. This resulted in a drop in the independent vote, as not all seats have viable independents.

    Here is the graph of Labor’s two-party share in national polls. There was a 2.5-point drop for Labor in Morgan, but no other poll this week has had such a large change. Although Labor is slightly down, they are likely to win Saturday’s election. This graph does not include the DemosAU poll.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval in Resolve was steady at +1, with 45% saying he was doing a good job and 44% a poor job. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped six points to -24. Albanese maintained a 47–31 lead over Dutton as preferred PM (46–30 previously).

    The change in voting intentions and leaders’ ratings since the late February Resolve poll is dramatic. The February poll had given the Coalition a 55–45 lead by respondent preferences. Albanese’s net approval was -22, Dutton’s was +5 and Dutton led Albanese as preferred PM by 39–35.

    The Liberals led Labor on economic management by 37–29 (36–31 previously). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 31–28 (tied at 30–30 previously).

    Final Essential poll: Labor leads by 52.1–47.9

    The Guardian reported Tuesday that the final Essential poll, conducted April 23–27 from a sample of 2,241 gave Labor a 52.1–47.9 lead by respondent preferences with undecided removed, from primary votes of 34% Coalition, 32% Labor, 13% Greens, 10% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots and 9% for all Others,

    In Essential’s usual methods that include undecided, Labor led by 49.6–45.6 (50–45 in mid-April). Primary votes were 32% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (steady), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 9% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (up one). By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead by about 52.5–47.5.

    Albanese’s net approval was steady at -3, with 47% disapproving and 44% approving. Dutton’s net approval dropped three points to -12, a record low for him in this poll. By 52–31, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (50–33 previously).

    A total of 81% rated cost of living one of the top three most important issues, including 49% who rated it the top issue. By 68–32, voters did not think the elected government would make a meaningful difference on cost of living.

    Morgan poll: Labor drops to a 53–47 lead

    A national Morgan poll, conducted April 21–27 from a sample of 1,524, gave Labor a 53–47 lead by headline respondent preferences, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since the April 14–20 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 34.5% Coalition (up 0.5), 34% Labor (down 0.5), 13% Greens (down 1.5), 7.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 1.5% Trumpet of Patriots (up one), 2% teal independents and 7.5% for all Others. By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54–46, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition.

    By 52.5–34, voters thought the country was going in the wrong direction (48–34 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index was down 2.1 points to 83.4, its lowest for more than six months.

    DemosAU poll 52–48 to Labor with low major party primary votes

    A national DemosAU poll, conducted April 22–23 from a sample of 1,073, gave Labor a 52–48 lead after a forced choice question for the 14% who were initially undecided.

    Primary votes after forcing were 31% Coalition, 29% Labor, 14% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 10% others. DemosAU used seat-specific polls, reading the candidate list as it appears on the ballot paper. Other pollsters get higher primary votes for the major parties as those parties are listed first on seat-specific polls.

    Albanese led Dutton by 43–34 as preferred PM.

    DemosAU poll of outer metro Brisbane seats

    DemosAU collectively polled the five seats of Longman, Dickson, Petrie, Bonner and Forde on April 18–23 from a sample of 1,053 for The Financial Review. The Liberal National Party led Labor by 53–47 (53.4–46.6 to the LNP across these five seats at the 2022 election).

    Primary votes were 40% LNP, 27% Labor, 13% Greens, 7% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots and 11% for all Others.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor maintains clear lead in all polls and is likely to win election – https://theconversation.com/labor-maintains-clear-lead-in-all-polls-and-is-likely-to-win-election-255426

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: Albanese will be encouraged by ‘Trump’ effect in helping Canadian Liberals to victory

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Labor will be encouraged by the Liberals’ victory in Canada’s election, undoubtedly much helped by US President Donald Trump.

    Trump’s extraordinary attack on the United States’ northern ally, with his repeated suggestion Canada should be the 51st American state, galvanised voters. Former banker Mark Carney, seen as best able to deal with Trump, won the internal race to succeed Justin Trudeau as PM, and now has clinched the election. The Conservatives, favourites a few months ago, couldn’t compete.

    The Trump factor is not so dramatic in our election, but it is present and working for Labor. In a time of instability, some potential swinging voters are more inclined to opt for the status quo.

    Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday, “Mark Carney has stood for Canada’s national interests, just as I stand up for Australia’s national interest”.

    Australians don’t like Trump or his policies. A recent Lowy poll found people’s trust in the US to act responsibly in the world has dropped 20 points in a year, although they were nearly equally divided on whether Albanese or Peter Dutton would be better to handle the US and Trump.

    After initially thinking Trump’s election could assist the Coalition, Dutton has not been able to shake off the “Trump factor” since it became clear it was a drag.

    Meanwhile, Dutton was having another difficult day on the campaign trail on Tuesday. His electorate office had been vandalised (again) in the early hours. Then, when he visited a sporting ground in the highly marginal seat of Gilmore on the NSW south coast, three local unionists, outfitted in protective gear, turned up to play for the cameras at finding a spot for a nuclear reactor.

    In Gilmore former NSW transport minister Andrew Constance is making another run, after being narrowly pipped by Labor at the 2022 election.

    Dutton had planned to hold his news conference at the ground, but cancelled it and moved on. When the press conference finally happened, it was short but not sweet. Both leader and press pack were, by that stage, tetchy.

    Unlike his unfortunate experience on Sunday with the price of eggs, Dutton did pass the test when asked the inflation rate. He quickly answered 2.7%. This is not the headline rate, which is 2.4%, but it is the trimmed mean rate. That’s the rate preferred by the Reserve Bank, so he would get a tick from Governor Michele Bullock, even if his choice caused some confusion in the media. On Wednesday we get the March quarter CPI figures.

    How the leaders’ debates rated

    Nine won by a whisker the “ratings” contest among TV stations in the leaders’ debates, followed by the ABC. These are considered high figures for election debates. What we don’t know is how many viewers watched all four debates. Now that took some stamina!

    How voters rate former PMs

    Essential Research’s latest poll has an interesting table of people’s ratings of former prime ministers, with John Howard and Bob Hawke filling the first two spots.

    Howard, 85, remains in demand for Liberal campaigning. Speaking to The Conversation, he reels off quite a round of seats he’s visited, including Curtin, Tangey, Bullwinkel and Hasluck in Western Australia (all in a day and a half); Wentworth, Mackellar, Robertson, Warringhah and Bennelong (his old seat) in NSW, and Bruce in Melbourne. He agrees the campaign cycle is faster these days, but he obviously still relishes the smell of the political grease paint.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: Albanese will be encouraged by ‘Trump’ effect in helping Canadian Liberals to victory – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-albanese-will-be-encouraged-by-trump-effect-in-helping-canadian-liberals-to-victory-255387

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: French Minister Valls warns New Caledonia is ‘on a tightrope’, pleads for ‘innovative’ solutions

    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

    French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls, who is visiting New Caledonia this week for the third time in two months, has once again called on all parties to live up to their responsibilities in order to make a new political agreement possible.

    Failing that, he said a potential civil war was looming.

    “We’ll take our responsibilities, on our part, and we will put on the table a project that touches New Caledonia’s society, economic recovery, including nickel, and the future of the younger generation,” he told a panel of French journalists on Sunday.

    He said that he hoped a revised version on a draft document — resulting from his previous visits in the French Pacific territory and new proposals from the French government — there existed a “difficult path” to possibly reconcile radically opposing views expressed so far from the pro-independence parties in New Caledonia and those who want the territory to remain part of France.

    The target remains an agreement that would accommodate both “the right and aspiration to self-determination” and “the link with France”.

    “If there is no agreement, then economic and political uncertainty can lead to a new disaster, to confrontation and to civil war,” he told reporters.

    “That is why I have appealed several times to all political stakeholders, those for and against independence,” he warned.

    “Everyone must take a step towards each other. An agreement is indispensable.”

    Valls said this week he hoped everyone would “enter a real negotiations phase”.

    He said one of the ways to achieve this will be to find “innovative” solutions and “a new way of looking at the future”.

    This also included relevant amendments to the French Constitution.

    Local parties will not sign any agreement ‘at all costs’
     Local parties are not so enthusiastic.

    In fact, each camp remains on their guard, in an atmosphere of defiance.

    And on both sides, they agree at least on one thing — they will not sign any agreement “at all costs”.

    Just like has been the case since talks between Valls and local parties began earlier this year, the two main opposing camps remain adamant on their respective pre-conditions and sometimes demands.

    The pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), largely dominated by the Union Calédonienne, held a convention at the weekend to decide on whether they would attend this week’s new round of talks with Valls.

    They eventually resolved that they would attend, but have not yet decided to call this “negotiations”, only “discussions”.

    They said another decision would be made this Thursday, May 1, after they had examined Valls’s new proposals and documents which the French minister is expected to circulate as soon as he hosts the first meeting tomorrow.

    FLNKS reaffirms ‘Kanaky Agreement’ demand
    During their weekend convention, the FLNKS reaffirmed their demands for a “Kanaky Agreement” to be signed not later than 24 September 2025, to be followed by a five-year transition period.

    The official line was to “maintain the trajectory” to full sovereignty, including in terms of schedule.

    On the pro-France side, the main pillar of their stance is the fact that three self-determination referendums have been held between 2018 and 2021, even though the third and last consultation was largely boycotted by the pro-independence camp.

    All three referendums resulted in votes rejecting full sovereignty.

    One of their most outspoken leaders, Les Loyalistes party and Southern Province President Sonia Backès, told a public rally last week that they had refused another date for yet another referendum.

    “A new referendum would mean civil war. And we don’t want to fix the date for civil war. So we don’t want to fix the date for a new referendum,” she said.

    However, Backès said they “still want to believe in an agreement”.

    “We’re part of all discussions on seeking solutions in a constructive and creative spirit.”

    Granting more provincial powers
    One of their other proposals was to grant more powers to each of the three provinces of New Caledonia, including on tax collection matters.

    “We don’t want differences along ethnic lines. We want the provinces to have more powers so that each of them is responsible for their respective society models.”

    Under a draft text leaked last week, any new referendum could only be called by at least three-fifths of the Congress and would no longer pose a “binary” question on yes or no to independence, but would consider endorsing a “project” for New Caledonia’s future society.

    Another prominent pro-France leader, MP Nicolas Metzdorf, repeated this weekend he and his supporters “remain mobilised to defend New Caledonia within France”.

    “We will not budge,” Metzdorf said.

    Despite Valls’s warnings, another scenario could be that New Caledonia’s political stakeholders find it more appealing or convenient to agree on no agreement at all, especially as New Caledonia’s crucial provincial elections are in the pipeline and scheduled for no later than November 30.

    Concerns about security
     But during the same interview, Valls repeated that he remained concerned that the situation on the ground remained “serious”.

    “We are walking on a tightrope above embers”.

    He said top of his concerns were New Caledonia’s economic and financial situation, the tense atmosphere, a resurgence in “racism, hatred” as well as a fast-deteriorating public health services situation or the rise in poverty caused by an increasing number of jobless.

    “So yes, all these risks are there, and that is why it is everyone’s responsibility to find an agreement. And I will stay as long as needed and I will put all my energy so that an agreement takes place.

    “Not for me, for them.”

    Valls also recalled that since the riots broke out in May 2024, almost one year ago, French security and law enforcement agencies are still maintaining about 20 squads of French gendarmes (1500 personnel) in the territory.

    This is on top of the normal deployment of 550 gendarmes and 680 police officers.

    Valls said this was necessary because “any time, it could flare up again”.

    Outgoing French High Commissioner Louis Le Franc said in an interview recently that in case of a “new May 13” situation, the pre-positioned forces could ensure law enforcement “for three or four days . . . until reinforcements arrive”.

    If fresh violence erupts again, reinforcements could be sent again from mainland France and bring the total number to up to 6000 law enforcement personnel, a number similar to the level deployed in 2024 in the weeks following the riots that killed 14 and caused some 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4.2 billion) in damage.

    Carefully chosen words
     Valls said earlier in April the main pillars of future negotiations were articulated around the themes of:

    • “democracy and the rule of law”;
    • a “decolonisation process”;
    • the right to self-determination;
    • a “fundamental law” that would seal New Caledonia’s future status;
    • the powers of New Caledonia’s three provinces; and a future New Caledonia citizenship with the associated definition of who meets the requirements to vote at local elections.

    Valls has already travelled to Nouméa twice this year — in February and March.

    Since his last visit that ended on April 1, discussions have been maintained in conference mode between local political stakeholders and Valls, and his cabinet, as well as French Prime Minister François Bayrou’s special advisor on New Caledonia, constitutionalist Eric Thiers.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Did ‘induced atmospheric vibration’ cause blackouts in Europe? An electrical engineer explains the phenomenon

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian, Professor of Electrical Engineering, School of Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology

    The lights are mostly back on in Spain, Portugal and southern France after a widespread blackout on Monday.

    The blackout caused chaos for tens of millions of people. It shut down traffic lights and ATMs, halted public transport, cut phone service and forced people to eat dinner huddled around candles as night fell. Many people found themselves trapped in trains and elevators.

    Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has said the exact cause of the blackout is yet to be determined. In early reporting, Portugal’s grid operator REN was quoted as blaming the event on a rare phenomenon known as “induced atmospheric vibration”. REN has since reportedly refuted this.

    But what is this vibration? And how can energy systems be improved to mitigate the risk of widespread blackouts?

    How much does weather affect electricity?

    Weather is a major cause of disruptions to electricity supply. In fact, in the United States, 83% of reported blackouts between 2000 and 2021 were attributed to weather-related events.

    The ways weather can affect the supply of electricity are manifold. For example, cyclones can bring down transmission lines, heatwaves can place too high a demand on the grid, and bushfires can raze substations.

    Wind can also cause transmission lines to vibrate. These vibrations are characterised by either high amplitude and low frequency (known as “conductor galloping”), or low amplitude and high frequency (known as “aeolian vibrations”).

    These vibrations are a significant problem for grid operators. They can place increased stress on grid infrastructure, potentially leading to blackouts.

    To reduce the risk of vibration, grid operators often use wire stabilisers known as “stock bridge dampers”.

    What is ‘induced atmospheric vibration’?

    Vibrations in power lines can also be caused by extreme changes in temperature or air pressure. And this is one hypothesis about what caused the recent widespread blackout across the Iberian peninsula.

    As The Guardian initially reported Portugal’s REN as saying:

    Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in the very high voltage lines (400 kV), a phenomenon known as “induced atmospheric vibration”. These oscillations caused synchronisation failures between the electrical systems, leading to successive disturbances across the interconnected European network.

    In fact, “induced atmospheric vibration” is not a commonly used term, but it seems likely the explanation was intended to refer to physical processes climate scientists have known about for quite some time.

    In simple terms, it seems to refer to wavelike movements or oscillations in the atmosphere, caused by sudden changes in temperature or pressure. These can be triggered by extreme heating, large-scale energy releases (such as explosions or bushfires), or intense weather events.

    When a part of Earth’s surface heats up very quickly – due to a heatwave, for example – the air above it warms, expands and becomes lighter. That rising warm air creates a pressure imbalance with the surrounding cooler, denser air. The atmosphere responds to this imbalance by generating waves, not unlike ripples spreading across a pond.

    These pressure waves can travel through the atmosphere. In some cases, they can interact with power infrastructure — particularly long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines.

    These types of atmospheric waves are usually called gravity waves, thermal oscillations or acoustic-gravity waves. While the phrase “induced atmospheric vibration” is not formally established in meteorology, it seems to describe this same family of phenomena.

    What’s important is that it’s not just high temperatures alone that causes these effects — it’s how quickly and unevenly the temperature changes across a region. That’s what sets the atmosphere into motion and can cause power lines to vibrate. Again, though, it’s still unclear if this is what was behind the recent blackout in Europe.

    Atmospheric waves can sometimes be seen in clouds.
    Jeff Schmaltz/NASA

    More centralised, more vulnerable

    Understanding how the atmosphere behaves under these conditions is becoming increasingly important. As our energy systems become more interconnected and more dependent on long-distance transmission, even relatively subtle atmospheric disturbances can have outsized impacts. What might once have seemed like a fringe effect is now a growing factor in grid resilience.

    Under growing environmental and electrical stress, centralised energy networks are dangerously vulnerable. The increasing electrification of buildings, the rapid uptake of electric vehicles, and the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources have placed unprecedented pressure on traditional grids that were never designed for this level of complexity, dynamism or centralisation.

    Continuing to rely on centralised grid structures without fundamentally rethinking resilience puts entire regions at risk — not just from technical faults, but from environmental volatility.

    The way to avoid such catastrophic risks is clear: we must embrace innovative solutions such as community microgrids. These are decentralised, flexible and resilient energy networks that can operate independently when needed.

    Strengthening local energy autonomy is key to building a secure, affordable and future-ready electricity system.

    The European blackout, regardless of its immediate cause, demonstrates that our electrical grids have become dangerously sensitive. Failure to address these structural weaknesses will have consequences far worse than those experienced during the COVID pandemic.

    Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Did ‘induced atmospheric vibration’ cause blackouts in Europe? An electrical engineer explains the phenomenon – https://theconversation.com/did-induced-atmospheric-vibration-cause-blackouts-in-europe-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-phenomenon-255497

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tarakinikini appointed as Fiji’s ambassador-designate to Israel

    By Anish Chand in Suva

    Filipo Tarakinikini has been appointed as Fiji’s Ambassador-designate to Israel.

    This has been stated on two official X, formerly Twitter, handle posts overnight.

    “#Fiji is determined to deepen its relations with #Israel as Fiji’s Ambassador-designate to Israel, HE Ambassador @AFTarakinikini prepares to present his credentials on 28 April, 2025,” stated the Fiji at UN twitter account.

    Tarakinikini is also Fiji’s current Ambassador to the United Nations.

    In a separate post, Deputy Director-General Eynat Shlein of Israel’s international development cooperation agency said she was “honoured” to meet Tarakinikini.

    “We discussed the vast cooperation opportunities, promoting & enhancing sustainable development, emphasizing investment in capacity building & human capital,” she said on X.

    Fiji is only the seventh country in the world to open an embassy in Israel.

    Republished from The Fiji Times with permission.

    Centre of controversy
    Pacific Media Watch     reports that Lieutenant-Colonel Tarakinikini was at the centre of controversy in Fiji in 2005 when he was declared a “deserter” by the Fiji military.

    However, from 1979 to 2002, he served in the Fiji Military Forces, including eight years in United Nations peacekeeping missions, among them, south Lebanon and the Multinational Force in Sinai, Egypt.

    Beginning in 2003, he was the UN Department for Security and Safety’s (UNDSS) Chief Security Adviser in Jerusalem, as well as in Kathmandu, Nepal, from 2006 to 2008.

    From 2008 to 2018, he served in numerous United Nations integrated assessment missions, programme working groups, restructuring and redeployments and technical assessment missions.

    ‘Weapons of war’
    Yesterday, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) began week-long hearings at The Hague into global accusations of Israel using starvation and humanitarian aid as “weapons of war” and failing to meet its obligations to the Palestinian people in Gaza as the occupying power in its genocidal war on the besieged enclave.

    Forty countries are expected to give evidence.

    The ICJ has been tasked by the UN with providing an advisory opinion “on a priority basis and with the utmost urgency”.

    Although the ICJ judges’ opinion is not binding, it provides clarity on legal questions.

    In January 2024, the ICJ ruled that Israel must take “all measures” to prevent a genocide in Gaza.

    Then in June, it said in an advisory opinion that Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza was illegal.

    Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant are wanted on arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to face charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    “Together we will build a Canada worthy of our values,” he told cheering supporters in his victory speech in Ottawa.

    Canadians gave the Liberals their fourth mandate since 2015, although the race against the Conservatives was much closer than polls predicted.

    Nonetheless, only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Jagmeet Singh losing his own seat in Burnaby, B.C. and then resigning as party leader. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of the election, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-leads-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Liberal Mark Carney’s election win in Canada means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election may not only shape Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Liberal Mark Carney’s election win in Canada means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-liberal-mark-carneys-election-win-in-canada-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: India and Pakistan are on war footing. Can they be brought back from the brink?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University; and Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow, Victoria University

    India and Pakistan are once again at a standoff over Kashmir. A terror attack last week in the disputed region that killed 26 tourists – mostly Indian – has brought the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals close to a devastating conflict.

    India claims the incident was an act of cross-border terrorism supported by Pakistan and has vowed to hunt down and punish the perpetrators. In retaliation, it has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty to deprive Pakistan of water from the Indus River, which runs through the Indian-controlled region of Jammu and Kashmir.

    Pakistan has condemned India’s action as an “act of war”.

    Both sides have put their forces on alert as low-level clashes have broken out along the “Line of Control”, the de facto border established in the region following the first Indo-Pakistan war in 1947–48.

    Pakistan’s defence minister now says a “military incursion” by India is imminent. Can all-out war between the two sides be averted?

    A long-simmering dispute

    At the time of the painful partition of British India in the 1940s, the country’s Muslim minority were given the option of joining the newly created state of Pakistan. Kashmir’s Hindu ruler initially wanted independence for the region, but in fear of invaders from Pakistan, decided to join India.

    This laid the foundations for an enduring, bitter dispute over control of the Muslim-majority region. Attempts at a resolution have been hard to come by.

    The dispute has also become intrinsically linked to the political and strategic postures of the two protagonists.

    New Delhi has vehemently opposed any nationalist demands for independence in Jammu and Kashmir. It fears this would set a precedent for many other minorities who want autonomy in multi-ethnic India.

    Initially, the region was given a special autonomous status under Article 370 of the Indian constitution. But since 2014, the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has forcefully sought to bring Jammu and Kashmir under New Delhi’s control.

    In 2019, it revoked Article 370 and isolated the region from the rest of India and the outside world.

    Modi’s government argued this was necessary to bring progress and prosperity to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. In reality, it was aimed at squashing separatist movements and easing the way for more Hindus to move to the territory.

    Pakistan condemned the scrapping of Article 370, exacerbating the tensions between the two regional powers.

    New Delhi has also accused Pakistan of involvement in cross-border terrorist acts over the years. Islamabad has refuted New Delhi’s claims and castigated it for human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir and for denying the people their right to self-determination.

    Nuclear deterrence has been effective

    India and Pakistan fought two wars in 1965 and 1971, the latter resulting in the dismemberment of Pakistan and creation of the state of Bangladesh.

    In 1999, the two rivals came very close to a nuclear exchange in the limited Kargil War in Kashmir, but pulled back from the brink. As I wrote at the time, the consequences of a nuclear war played a crucial role in both sides eventually backing down.

    This is also the main reason the protagonists have not fought another all-out war in five decades, notwithstanding periodic clashes along the Line of Control and the Kargil conflict. And nuclear deterrence may once more prove effective in preventing the two sides from escalating the current conflict.

    Pakistan is also going through a very politically, economically and socially fragile period in its history.

    The country has been in political turmoil since the ousting and arrest of popular Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2023. The economy is in the doldrums. And the government faces a renewed threat from the Pakistani Taliban, amid growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    The main force holding Pakistan together is the military and the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.

    India is facing its own challenges, despite being in a more stable position. The Modi government’s Hindu nationalism has marginalised minority groups, in particular the country’s Muslim population. And income inequality is growing, with the richest 1% of the country holding 58% of the wealth.

    Neither country can afford a war right now – particularly one with potentially catastrophic consequences.

    Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. India and Pakistan are on war footing. Can they be brought back from the brink? – https://theconversation.com/india-and-pakistan-are-on-war-footing-can-they-be-brought-back-from-the-brink-255504

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tempted to turn on the aircon? Science says use fans until it’s 27°C

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Federico Tartarini, Senior Lecturer, School of Architecture Design and Planning, University of Sydney

    New Africa, Shutterstock

    Many Australians struggle to keep themselves cool affordably and effectively, particularly with rising electricity prices. This is becoming a major health concern, especially for our most vulnerable people such as the elderly, pregnant women and people with cardiovascular diseases.

    Air conditioning is often seen as the only solution to this problem. But relying too heavily on aircon has major downsides. These include hefty electricity bills, increased greenhouse gas emissions, strain on an already weak electricity grid, and dumping heat from buildings to the outside – further heating the outdoor air.

    Our latest research, published in the Medical Journal of Australia, highlights a simple yet effective solution: a “fan-first” cooling approach.

    The approach is simple: use electric fans as your first cooling strategy, and only turn on air conditioning when the indoor temperature exceeds 27°C.

    Fan-First Cooling: The Smart Way to Beat Australia’s Heat Crisis (Federico Tartarini)

    The solution: ‘fan-first’ cooling

    Electric fans can make you feel more comfortable on a hot day simply by moving the air around you. This helps our body release heat in two ways: improving the transfer heat from your body into the air, and increasing the evaporation of sweat from your skin.

    A gentle breeze can make you feel up to 4°C cooler, even when the weather is very hot and humid.

    This allows you to increase the aircon set-point (the temperature at which cooling turns on) from 23-24°C to 27-28°C. This simple change can significantly reduce the amount of time your aircon is running, leading to substantial energy savings.

    For example, in our previous research we showed raising the office air conditioning set-point from 24 to 26.5°C, with supplementary air movement from desk and ceiling fans, reduced energy consumption by 32%, without compromising thermal comfort.

    Don’t fans still use electricity to run?

    Yes fans still use electricity, but it’s as little as 3% of the electricity used to run air conditioning. That means you can run more than 30 fans with the same amount of energy it takes to run a single aircon unit.

    A basic pedestal fan is cheap to buy (A$20 to $150), requires no installation and minimal maintenance, and can be easily moved around to keep you cool in any part of your house. Simply turn on the fan as soon as you start feeling slightly warm.

    Fans cool you, whereas aircon cools the whole space, which is less efficient.

    We also previously showed that using fans rather than airconditioning is a more effective emissions reduction strategy than switching from old-fashioned incandescent light bulbs to LED lighting.

    The problem with over-reliance on aircon

    Globally, the use of air conditioning is rapidly increasing. Aircon units sales have tripled since 1990 and are projected to triple again in 2050. It is becoming the go-to solution to heat management.

    Aircon is effective but is expensive to buy, run and maintain.

    A recent survey showed while most people have aircon, two thirds did not use it due to cost concerns.

    Beyond the financial burden, the environmental impact of aircon is substantial. In Australia, electricity mainly comes from burning fossil fuels, creating greenhouse gas emissions. Even with the growth of renewable energy, the sheer demand for aircon cooling could strain the transition and the grid.

    Furthermore, the refrigerants used in most aircon units are potent greenhouse gases. It will also take time to replace older and less efficient aircon units.

    Aircon units also release heat into the outdoor environment, worsening the urban heat island effect – the phenomenon where cities are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas.

    Finally, over-reliance on aircon might reduce our ability to cope with heat. If we constantly keep our indoor temperatures very low, our bodies may not acclimatise to warmer summer conditions, making us more vulnerable during power outages.

    Annual sales of air conditioning units have more than tripled globally since 1990.
    aapsky, Shutterstock

    Using fans safely and effectively

    While fans offer numerous benefits, it’s important to use them correctly, especially in very hot indoor conditions.

    There’s a common misconception that fans should be turned off above 35°C because they might blow hot air onto the skin. This ignores the crucial role fans play in evaporating sweat.

    We have established safer and more accurate temperature thresholds for fan use by conducting laboratory studies. Just remember to check the temperature indoors, not outdoors.

    Electric fans can be safely used in indoor temperatures up to:

    • 39°C for young, healthy adults.
    • 38°C for older adults.
    • 37°C for older adults taking anticholinergic medications (which can impair sweating).

    Above these indoor temperatures, fans could worsen heat strain by increasing cardiovascular strain and core body temperature. In such situations, alternative cooling strategies such as wetting the skin, moving to a cooler place, or turning the aircon on are essential.

    Below these thresholds, we have proven, in laboratory studies, that there’s no reason to switch fans off, because they provide further thermal comfort and reduce heat stress.

    Climate change means many people are experiencing hotter summers.
    Zhuravlev Andrey, Shutterstock

    Take action now

    Based on our field and lab research, we suggest five simple steps to using fans for managing heat at home:

    1. consider buying pedestal or ceiling fans

    2. point the fan at your body and adjust the speed to your liking

    3. wear light clothing and stay hydrated

    4. if you have aircon, increase the set-point to 27-28°C

    5. enjoy a reduced energy bill and increased comfort.

    You may also want to ask your employer to install fans at your workplace and share this “fan-first” cooling strategy with family and friends.

    Let’s work together towards a more sustainable future by reducing our reliance on energy-intensive air conditioning. This will lead to lower electricity costs, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and increased resilience to heat.

    Federico Tartarini is affiliated with the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE).

    Angie Bone is a Board Member of Doctors for the Environment Australia.

    Ollie Jay receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Wellcome Trust (UK).

    – ref. Tempted to turn on the aircon? Science says use fans until it’s 27°C – https://theconversation.com/tempted-to-turn-on-the-aircon-science-says-use-fans-until-its-27-c-252018

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney is projected to have pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of the election, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-projected-to-lead-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The government plans to regulate carbon capture technologies – but who will be the regulating agency?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Barry Barton, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

    The Icelandic company Carbfix has developed a technology to store carbon dioxide. Shutterstock/Oksana Bali

    Newly released documents add more detail to the government’s plans for a regulatory framework to enable carbon capture and storage.

    But they show indecision on two key matters – the legal framework and the agency that would be in charge.

    The plan relates primarily to conventional carbon capture and storage technologies, which remove carbon dioxide from an industrial gas flow and dispose of it deep underground.

    It also covers some methods of carbon dioxide removal, an emerging but as yet commercially untested suite of technologies such as enhanced rock weathering, bio-energy capture and direct air capture.

    The latter technologies are not predicated on fossil fuel consumption and could operate in many different situations.

    Neither kind of carbon removal is a simple answer to the climate challenge and the priority remains on cutting emissions. But we need to have regulatory frameworks in place for both reduction and removal technologies of all kinds, and soon.

    Earning credits from emissions trading

    Both types of technologies will benefit from the government’s decision to allow companies to get credits in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for the disposal of carbon dioxide from any source. Credits will not be tied to any one technology, according to the released policy discussion documents.

    It’s also a positive development that an operator can get credits as a separate removal activity, not merely as a reduction of an existing emissions liability (although official advice was initially against separate credits). This allows for diversity in the players and the systems for removals.

    The government has decided it will assume liability for any carbon dioxide leaks from geological storage, but only after verification that fluids in the subsurface are behaving as expected after closure, and no sooner than 15 years after closure.

    Leaks this long after injection are unlikely, but we nevertheless need strong regulation, financial assurance to guarantee remedial action and clear liability rules.

    Companies will be able to earn credits for the permanent disposal of carbon dioxide.
    Shutterstock/VectorMine

    The government also states ETS credits will only be available for removals that can be recognised internationally against New Zealand’s commitments to cut emissions. This would apply only to geological storage but not deep-ocean deposition or rock weathering.

    But that’s not quite right. The general international rules already allow the inclusion in a national greenhouse gas inventory of removals from any process. Detailed methodologies for carbon dioxide removal are likely to become available within the next few years.

    With change underway, New Zealand’s new regime should allow a wide range of removal methods to receive credits.

    A new regulatory regime

    The documents acknowledge that New Zealand needs a broader regulatory regime, beyond the ETS, to cover the entire process of carbon dioxide removal. The suitability of a disposal site must be verified, a detailed geological characterisation is required and the project design and operation need to be approved.

    Approval is also required for closure and post-closure plans, and systematic monitoring. Monitoring is everything; it must be accurate and verifiable but also cost effective. The operator will have to pay for monitoring for decades after site closure.

    In agreeing on these features, the government is following the examples of many countries overseas, including Australia, Canada, the UK and the EU.

    However, it is intriguing that the government hasn’t decided where this new regime should sit in the statute book, and who should manage it. Much of the apparently relevant text in the documents has been redacted.

    Given that carbon dioxide would be stored underground, the Crown Minerals Act is one possibility. But this legislation is all about extraction, not disposal. Although the New Zealand petroleum and minerals unit at the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment has expertise in regulating subsurface operations, it focuses largely on oil and gas, not on innovative climate projects.

    The Resource Management Act certainly provides a regulatory approval regime, but it is awaiting reform and would need much more than the currently proposed changes to deal with carbon capture and storage or removal properly. So would legislation covering activities within New Zealand’s exclusive economic zone.

    Indeed each act would require a whole new part to be added, with its own principles and procedures. There is a lot to be said for a standalone new act, in a form that would fit with the emerging Natural Environment Act that will replace the Resource Management Act.

    The new legislation and regulation regime could be administered by the Environmental Protection Authority, which is already involved in Resource Management Act call-ins and fast-track approvals, the legislation covering the exclusive economic zone and the ETS.

    One can only guess there might be tensions between contending factions in government. What we should ask for is a legislative and institutional arrangement that allows carbon capture and storage or removal technologies to evolve and grow without being a mere offshoot of the oil and gas industry or any other existing sector.

    As part of our efforts to reduce emissions, we must make sure all kinds of removal technologies are available that truly suit New Zealand.

    Barry Barton is part of the project “Derisking Carbon Dioxide Removal at Megatonne Scale in Aotearoa” which is funded by the MBIE’s Endeavour Fund. In the past, he has received funding from MBIE and the gas industry for research on CCS legal issues.
    He is a director of the Environmental Defence Society.

    – ref. The government plans to regulate carbon capture technologies – but who will be the regulating agency? – https://theconversation.com/the-government-plans-to-regulate-carbon-capture-technologies-but-who-will-be-the-regulating-agency-254696

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Liberal Mark Carney’s projected election win in Canada means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the projected election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election may not only shape Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Liberal Mark Carney’s projected election win in Canada means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-liberal-mark-carneys-projected-election-win-in-canada-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to have lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney is projected to have pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of the election, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to have lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-projected-to-have-lead-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Liberal Mark Carney’s Canadian projected election win means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the projected election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election may not only shape Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Liberal Mark Carney’s Canadian projected election win means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-liberal-mark-carneys-canadian-projected-election-win-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How do the Coalition and Labor plans on housing differ – and what have they ignored?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hal Pawson, Professor of Housing Research and Policy, and Associate Director, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW Sydney

    Any doubts that Australia’s growing housing challenges would be a major focus of the federal election campaign have been dispelled over recent weeks.

    Both major parties announced strikingly ambitious housing initiatives as campaign centrepiece offers. So how do they compare?

    What’s the Coalition offering?

    The Coalition had already pledged several significant housing initiatives, should it form government. Among those, the biggest ticket item is the $5 billion program for enabling infrastructure to “unlock up to 500,000 new homes”.

    In the absence of underpinning detail, both the wording of this pledge and its alleged potential impact have generated some scepticism.

    Also announced well ahead of the campaign was the Coalition’s plan to allow first home buyers to draw down on their superannuation. They could withdraw up to $50,000 to help fund mortgage deposits.

    This proposal has attracted some qualified support. But it’s been rejected by most of Australia’s top economists. This reflects concerns the measure could prove highly inflationary. It also risks a net loss for scheme participants if devalued retirement savings outweigh the benefit of accelerated access to home ownership.

    Likewise, the Coalition’s newly unveiled plan to allow mortgage interests for first home buyers to be tax-deductible has been fiercely criticised for its likely inflationary and regressive effects.

    Such arrangements are novel in Australia, but exist in some other countries. These include the Netherlands, where their impact has been recently described as damaging to both housing affordability and public finances.

    What’s Labor offering?

    Labor’s two new offers are to enable access to a mortgage with only a 5% deposit, and its $10 billion “Build to Sell” program.

    As a demand-side instrument, the first of these could have some inflationary impact. But given the modest nature of the assistance provided, and that it only expands the existing Home Guarantee Scheme from its current maximum annual quota of 50,000 to an expected take-up of around 80,000, this is likely to be limited.

    The Build to Sell plan would see collaboration with state and territory governments to commission 100,000 new homes in eight years. These would be for first home buyers only and, likely, for cost-price sale.

    In further details of the plan, released just days out from polling day, Labor says the plan would be progressed partly via $2 billion in concessional loans to the states.

    The whole build-to-sell idea revives the practice of the 1950s and 1960s where, in addition to constructing public housing for rent, state governments commissioned homes for sale. This contributed to the rapid rise in home ownership during that period.

    As a supply-side measure, the new plan builds on the 2022 National Housing Accord. The accord aims to expand overall housing industry output to 1.2 million new homes in the five years to 2029.

    Much about the Build to Sell plan has yet to be revealed. But from what we know, it looks like a bold initiative in challenging conventional modern thinking about the proper limits of direct state involvement in supplying a commodity largely provided through the market.

    By expanding overall housing production, it could help in slightly moderating prices market-wide, as well as benefiting the homebuyers directly involved.

    One-eyed agendas

    When it comes to helping first home buyers, both parties have put forth some ambitious new propositions. But social housing and homelessness pledges have been glaringly absent from their proposals.

    Neither Labor nor the Coalition has announced any significant new initiative to relieve rental stress at the lower end of the housing market, affecting millions of Australians. Measures that might, at least indirectly, help stem the rising tide of homelessness that now sees more than 10,000 newly homeless people being taken on by support agencies every month.

    Given its numerous initiatives to increase assistance to low-income and otherwise disadvantaged renters already enacted since 2022, Labor has a somewhat stronger excuse here.

    But while Albanese government measures, such as increased rent assistance, have eased the situation for some hard-pressed tenants, many other measures will only start to help in the next term of parliament.

    That’s especially true for the Housing Australia Future Fund and all of Labor’s other post-2022 federal programs to expand social and affordable housing construction. Pledged commitments during the current parliament should add 55,000 new social and affordable homes to the national portfolio.

    In combination with the Build to Sell initiative, this would see state-commissioned or otherwise funded housing construction perhaps equating to as much as 10% of all home-building later this decade. While short of the 16% achieved in the 1945-70 period, that would be a giant increase over the 1-2% typically recorded during the 2010s.



    Read more:
    Homelessness – the other housing crisis politicians aren’t talking about

    Even so, social and affordable housing investment so far pledged by Labor is limited in relation to demand. It’s estimated 640,000 households have an unmet need for social or affordable housing.

    The Coalition says if it wins the election, it would abolish the housing future fund. When asked how he would replace it, Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor declared it unnecessary because “there’s billions of dollars that [already] goes to the states for social housing”.

    While narrowly true, this is also disingenuous. The relatively modest funds referenced here – paid annually under the National Agreement on Social Housing and Homelessness – are entirely swallowed up in balancing the operating budgets of state public housing authorities.

    With public housing systems otherwise mired deep in deficits, it’s been decades since this funding stream has been sufficient to generate any new housing supply.

    In this respect, the Coalition’s 2025 housing pitch foreshadows a resumption of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison stance: nine years of federal subsidy drought for new social and affordable housing.

    What else is missing?

    Many have also criticised the recent major party offers as ignoring the overdue need for fundamental housing tax reform.

    That’s true for Labor. But the Coalition’s pitch on mortgage interest would, in fact, amount to a major property tax reset.

    Unfortunately, though, this so-called “negative gearing for first home buyers” would pile yet another damaging “market distortion” on top of all our existing property ownership tax breaks.

    These concessions have, over decades, contributed to today’s housing affordability problem, as their value is capitalised into higher prices.

    As observed by researcher Peter Mares, this new Coalition foray only goes to shine an even brighter light on the rational case to confront that problem head-on.

    Hal Pawson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and Crisis UK. He is a part-time unpaid advisor to Senator David Pocock.

    – ref. How do the Coalition and Labor plans on housing differ – and what have they ignored? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-the-coalition-and-labor-plans-on-housing-differ-and-what-have-they-ignored-253337

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to have lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney is projected to have pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of the election, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to have lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-projected-to-have-lead-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Liberal Mark Carney’s Canadian election win means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election not only shapes Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Liberal Mark Carney’s Canadian election win means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-liberal-mark-carneys-canadian-election-win-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for April 29, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 29, 2025.

    Why are political parties allowed to send spam texts? And how can we make them stop?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tegan Cohen, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology Ti Wi / Unsplash Another election, another wave of unsolicited political texts. Over this campaign, our digital mailboxes have been stuffed with a slew of political appeals and promises, many from the new party

    The Oscars have rolled out the red carpet for generative AI. And surprisingly, viewers don’t seem to mind
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Crosby, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University The Oscars have entered the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Last week the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences explicitly said, for the first time, films using generative AI tools will not be disqualified from the awards.

    Echidna ancestors lived watery lifestyles like platypuses 100 million years ago – new study
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sue Hand, Professor Emeritus, Palaeontology, UNSW Sydney Mary_May/Shutterstock As the world’s only surviving egg-laying mammals, Australasia’s platypus and four echidna species are among the most extraordinary animals on Earth. They are also very different from each other. The platypus is well adapted for a semi-aquatic lifestyle, spending

    ‘Do something about it before it gets worse’: young people want government action on gambling reform
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Pitt, Senior Research Fellow – Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University David P. Smith/Shutterstock Do something about it before it gets worse. This was a response from a 16-year-old boy in one of our recent studies when asked what he would say to the prime minister

    ‘I’m always afraid for the future of my family’: why it’s too hard for some refugees to reunite with loved ones
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mary Anne Kenny, Associate Professor, School of Law, Murdoch University When refugees flee their home country due to war, violence, conflict or persecution, they are often forced to leave behind their families. For more than 30,000 people who have sought asylum in Australia since arriving more than

    Major survey finds most people use AI regularly at work – but almost half admit to doing so inappropriately
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Gillespie, Professor of Management; Chair in Trust, Melbourne Business School Matheus Bertelli/Pexels Have you ever used ChatGPT to draft a work email? Perhaps to summarise a report, research a topic or analyse data in a spreadsheet? If so, you certainly aren’t alone. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools

    1 billion years ago, a meteorite struck Scotland and influenced life on Earth
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Kirkland, Professor of Geochronology, Curtin University Stoer Head lighthouse, Scotland. William Gale/Shutterstock We’ve discovered that a meteorite struck northwest Scotland 1 billion years ago, 200 million years later than previously thought. Our results are published today in the journal Geology. This impact now aligns with some

    Arsenic is everywhere – but new detection methods could help save lives
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magdalena Wajrak, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, Edith Cowan University Arsenic is a nasty poison that once reigned as the ultimate weapon of deception. In the 18th century, it was the poison of choice for those wanting to kill their enemies and spouses, favoured for its undetectable nature

    Forming new habits can take longer than you think. Here are 8 tips to help you stick with them
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Singh, Research Fellow, Allied Health & Human Performance, University of South Australia SarahMcEwan/Shutterstock If you’ve ever tried to build a new habit – whether that’s exercising more, eating healthier, or going to bed earlier – you may have heard the popular claim that it only takes

    ‘Complaining is career suicide’: the hidden mental health crisis turning our screen industry upside down
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Hegedus, Associate Professor, Griffith Film School, Griffith University Shutterstock The Australian screen industry is often associated with fun, creativity and perhaps even glamour. But our new Pressure Point Report reveals a more troubling reality: a pervasive mental health crisis, which could see the screen industry lose

    New survey shows business outlook is weakening and uncertainty rising as the trade war bites
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Simon, Adjunct Fellow in Economics, Macquarie University Vivid Brands/Shutterstock Uncertainty is everywhere these days. There is even uncertainty about the uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia, for example, noted in the minutes from its April 1 meeting: The most significant development in the period leading up

    How ICE is becoming a secret police force under the Trump administration
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee Morgenbesser, Associate Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University Secret police are a quintessential feature of authoritarian regimes. From Azerbaijan’s State Security Service to Zimbabwe’s Central Intelligence Organisation, these agencies typically target political opponents and dissidents through covert surveillance, imprisonment and physical violence. In

    Democracy on display or a public eyesore? The case for cracking down on election corflutes
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer in Marketing, Research School of Management, Australian National University In my time researching political advertising, one common communication method that often generates complaints is the proliferation of campaign corflutes. Politicians love them. Not so, many members of the general public. People are so fed

    Here’s how to make your backyard safer and cooler next summer
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pui Kwan Cheung, Research Fellow in Urban Microclimates, The University of Melbourne Varavin88, Shutterstock Our backyards should be safe and inviting spaces all year round, including during the summer months. But the choices we make about garden design and maintenance, such as whether to have artificial turf

    Five ways to make cities more resilient to climate change
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul O’Hare, Lecturer in Human Geography and Urban Development, Manchester Metropolitan University John_T/Shutterstock Climate breakdown poses immense threats to global economies, societies and ecosystems. Adapting to these impacts is urgent. But many cities and countries remain chronically unprepared in what the UN calls an “adaptation gap”. Building

    Politics with Michelle Grattan: pollster Kos Samaras on how voters are leaving the major parties behind
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra As we enter the final days of campaigning, Labor leads with its nose in front on most polls, but the devil is in the detail of particular seats. To help get a read on what the voters are feeling at

    Vanuatu communities growing climate resilience in wake of Cyclone Lola
    Communities in Vanuatu are learning to grow climate resilient crops, 18 months after Cyclone Lola devastated the country. The category 5 storm struck in October 2023, generating wind speeds of up to 215 kmph, which destroyed homes, schools, plantations, and left at least four people dead. It was all the worse for following twin cyclones

    Election Diary: Labor to slash more consultant costs and increase visa charges to pay for fresh election commitments
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The government has dug out last-minute savings of more than A$7 billion, to ensure its election commitments are more than offset in every year of the forward estimates. Its costings, released Monday, include savings of $6.4 billion from further reducing

    Big and small spending included in Labor costings, but off-budget items yet to be revealed
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra The federal budget will be stronger than suggested in last month’s budget, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers who released Labor’s costings on Monday. Many of the policies included in the costings were already detailed in either the 2025 Budget

    How much do election promises cost? And why have we had to wait so long to see the costings?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra With the May 3 federal election less than a week away, voters have only just received Labor’s costings and are yet to hear from the Coalition. At the 2022 election, the costings were not released for nearly two months

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of Carney’s victory, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/the-game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-leads-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Canada’s election of Mark Carney’s Liberals means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election not only shapes Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Canada’s election of Mark Carney’s Liberals means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-canadas-election-of-mark-carneys-liberals-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The game change Canadian election: Mark Carney’s Liberals win a fourth consecutive election

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of Carney’s victory, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The game change Canadian election: Mark Carney’s Liberals win a fourth consecutive election – https://theconversation.com/the-game-change-canadian-election-mark-carneys-liberals-win-a-fourth-consecutive-election-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why are political parties allowed to send spam texts? And how can we make them stop?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tegan Cohen, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology

    Ti Wi / Unsplash

    Another election, another wave of unsolicited political texts. Over this campaign, our digital mailboxes have been stuffed with a slew of political appeals and promises, many from the new party Trumpet of Patriots (backed by Clive Palmer, a veteran of the mass text campaign).

    The practice isn’t new, and it’s totally legal under current laws. It’s also non-partisan. Campaigns of all stripes have partaken. Behold, the Liberal Party’s last-minute SMS to voters about asylum seekers before the 2022 federal election, or Labor’s controversial “Mediscare” text before the 2016 poll. Despite multiple cycles of criticism, these tactics remain a persistent feature of Australian election campaigns.

    A recent proposal to update decades-old rules could help change things – if a government would put it into practice.

    What does the law say about political spam?

    Several laws regulate spam and data collection in Australia.

    First, there is the Spam Act. This legislation requires that organisations obtain our consent before sending us marketing emails, SMSs and instant messages. The unsubscribe links you see at the bottom of spam emails? Those are mandated by the Spam Act.

    Second, the Do Not Call Register (DNCR) Act. This Act establishes a “do not call” register, managed by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), which individuals can join to opt out of telemarketing calls.

    Finally, there is the Privacy Act, which governs how organisations collect, use and disclose our personal information. Among other things, the Privacy Act requires that organisations tell us when and why they are collecting our personal information, and the purposes for which they intend to use it. It restricts organisations from re-purposing personal information collected for a particular purpose, unless an exception applies.

    This trio of laws was designed to offer relief from unsolicited, unwanted direct marketing. It does not, however, stop the deluge of political spam at election time due to broad political exemptions sewn into the legislation decades ago.

    The Spam Act and DNCR Act apply to marketing for goods and services but not election policies and promises, while the Privacy Act contains a carve-out for political parties, representatives and their contractors.

    The upshot is that their campaigns are free to spam and target voters at will. Their only obligation is to disclose who authorised the message.

    How do political campaigns get our information?

    Secrecy about the nature and extent of campaign data operations, enabled by the exemptions, makes it difficult to pinpoint precisely where a campaign might have obtained your data from.

    There are, however, a number of ways political campaigns can acquire our information.

    One source is the electoral roll (though not for phone numbers, as the Australian Electoral Commission often points out). Incumbent candidates might build on this with information they obtain through contact with constituents which, thanks to the exemptions, they’re allowed to re-purpose for campaigning at election time.

    Another source is data brokers – firms which harvest, analyse and sell large quantities of data and profiles.

    We know the major parties have long maintained voter databases to support their targeting efforts, which have become increasingly sophisticated over the years.

    Other outfits might take more haphazard approaches – former MP Craig Kelly, for example, claimed to use software to randomly generate numbers for his texting campaign in 2021.

    What can be done?

    Unwanted campaign texts are not only irritating to some. They can be misleading.

    This year, there have been reports of “push polling” texts (pseudo surveys meant to persuade rather than gauge voter options) in the marginal seat of Kooyong. The AEC has warned about misleading postal vote applications being issued by parties via SMS.

    This election campaign has seen a flood of texts from Trumpet of Patriots among others.
    The Conversation, CC BY-SA

    Generative AI is hastening the ability to produce misleading content, cheaply and at scale, which can be quickly pushed out across an array of online social and instant messaging services.

    In short, annoying texts are just one visible symptom of a wider vulnerability created by the political exemptions.

    The basic argument for the political exemptions is to facilitate freedom of political communication, which is protected by the Constitution. As the High Court has said, that freedom is necessary to support informed electoral choice. It does not, however, guarantee speakers a captive audience.

    In 2022, the Attorney-General’s Department proposed narrowing the political exemptions, as part of a suite of updates to the Privacy Act. Per the proposal, parties and representatives would need to be more transparent about their data operations, provide voters with an option to unsubscribe from targeted ads, refrain from targeting voters based on “sensitive information”, and handle data in a “fair and reasonable” manner.

    The changes would be an overdue but welcome step, recognising the essential role of voter privacy in a functioning democratic system.

    Unfortunately, the government has not committed to taking up the proposal.

    A bipartisan lack of support is likely the biggest obstacle, even as the gap created by the political exemptions widens, and its rationale becomes flimsier, with each election cycle.

    Tegan Cohen has received funding from the Australian Research Council (FT210100263). She has volunteered for not-for-profit groups and parties, including the Wilderness Society and the Australian Greens.

    – ref. Why are political parties allowed to send spam texts? And how can we make them stop? – https://theconversation.com/why-are-political-parties-allowed-to-send-spam-texts-and-how-can-we-make-them-stop-255413

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Oscars have rolled out the red carpet for generative AI. And surprisingly, viewers don’t seem to mind

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Crosby, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University

    The Oscars have entered the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Last week the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences explicitly said, for the first time, films using generative AI tools will not be disqualified from the awards.

    It’s a timely decision. As generative AI becomes more integrated into filmmaking, debates over creativity and authorship are intensifying. Writers’ strikes and fears of artistic displacement have dominated recent industry discussions.

    But how do audiences feel about the use of AI in films? Our research suggests they may be more open to it than the industry might expect.

    What the new rules say

    The updated Oscars guidelines make it clear the use of generative AI will neither help, nor hinder, a film’s chances of nomination.

    What matters is the degree to which people remain at the centre of the creative process. While AI tools can be part of the workflow, the judges will scrutinise the standard of human creative authorship in a given work.

    This reflects broader shifts taking place in the film industry. AI tools are now embedded in many stages of production, including for high-profile and award-nominated films.

    At this year’s Oscars, Adrien Brody won best actor for his performance in The Brutalist, which used generative AI to enhance the actor’s Hungarian dialogue. Emilia Pérez – the most nominated film, with 13 nods – also used AI-powered voice cloning in post-production.

    The Oscars update isn’t introducing AI to Hollywood. It’s simply acknowledging the extent to which it is already in use.

    Do audiences mind?

    To understand how audiences respond to AI’s creative role in film, we conducted an experiment testing people’s reactions to AI-generated film ideas.

    For our study, published in the Journal of Cultural Economics, we asked 500 US-based participants to rate AI-generated film “pitches” in terms of their anticipated enjoyment and likelihood of watching the film across different formats (such as cinema, online rental, or streaming).

    Half of the participants were explicitly told the ideas were generated by AI, while the other half were not. Each AI-generated pitch included a synopsis, director, top-billed cast, genre, rating and runtime.

    The results were clear. There was no systematic bias against AI-generated pitches. Ratings of anticipated enjoyment and likelihood of watching the films were broadly similar, regardless of whether the participants knew AI was involved.

    AI-assisted versus AI-produced

    It’s important to note our research focused on audience reactions to ideas – the initial pitch for a film – and not the final product. This distinction matters.

    AI’s role was limited in our experiment. Human directors and cast members were implicitly part of each pitch, and there was no suggestion AI had written the full screenplay or contributed in other ways to the production of the final film.

    As we note in our paper, AI’s limited involvement likely shaped participants’ responses. There was an implicit understanding that human creativity would remain central to the final product.

    This aligns with broader evidence from other creative sectors. In the case of music and visual art, audiences tend to respond less favourably when they believe a work has been fully AI-generated.

    Together, these findings suggest the middle ground may be the best approach. While audiences may be accepting of AI’s contribution to creative tasks such as idea generation, editing, and visual and audio effects, they still value human authorship and authenticity in the final product.

    That is also the balance the Academy Awards seems to be aiming for. The new rules do not disqualify films for using AI. However, they emphasise that awards will go to works where humans remain at the heart of the creative process. For now, audiences appear to be comfortable with that approach, too.

    What it means for the industry

    Generative tools are becoming part of the mainstream production toolkit. And this raises important questions about creative labour, credit and compensation.

    While our research suggests audiences may be open to AI-generated content, this doesn’t mean the industry can move forward without careful deliberation. The question is no longer whether AI will shape the future of film, but how – and who gets to decide the terms.

    If AI is to complement, rather than diminish, the filmmaking process, it will be important to maintain clear standards and ethical guidelines around AI use, as well as a clear role for human authorship.

    This includes transparency around how AI tools are used, and appropriate recognition for creative contributions – including for those whose work has been used to train generative AI systems.

    The real test will be whether the industry can embrace AI without losing sight of the creative values that define it.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Oscars have rolled out the red carpet for generative AI. And surprisingly, viewers don’t seem to mind – https://theconversation.com/the-oscars-have-rolled-out-the-red-carpet-for-generative-ai-and-surprisingly-viewers-dont-seem-to-mind-255120

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I’m always afraid for the future of my family’: why it’s too hard for some refugees to reunite with loved ones

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mary Anne Kenny, Associate Professor, School of Law, Murdoch University

    When refugees flee their home country due to war, violence, conflict or persecution, they are often forced to leave behind their families.

    For more than 30,000 people who have sought asylum in Australia since arriving more than a decade ago, that separation has stretched into more than a decade. This group of people – known in policy circles as “the legacy caseload” – need a clear pathway to reunite with family members.

    Refugees separated from family are plagued by guilt and worry for their family members’ safety. This makes it extremely difficult to focus on education, work or getting settled.

    The right to family unity is a basic human right and vital to any humane refugee policy.

    However, tensions arise between refugees’ conceptions of family and the restrictive definitions embedded in Australian law.

    High costs, complex administrative requirements, and lengthy processing times often delay or prevent families from reuniting.

    The legacy caseload: more than a decade in limbo

    The so-called “legacy caseload” refers to approximately 30,000 people who arrived by boat between 2012 and 2014, and who were placed on Temporary Protection Visas.

    For more than a decade, they were denied a pathway to permanency and barred from sponsoring family members to join them in Australia.

    That policy made life so unbearable, more than 6,500 people from this group “chose” to return home despite the risks they face. This raises serious concerns about whether they were genuinely able to make a free choice, or were pushed into returning to danger.

    Since the Albanese government’s 2022 commitment to end temporary protection, almost 20,000 people have been eligible to transition to permanent visas through the Resolution of Status process.

    This is a crucial step. Without a permanent visa, they could not sponsor family members.

    Even with permanency, however, family reunion remains out of reach for many “legacy caseload” refugees. This is due to outdated laws, harsh policies and bureaucratic delays.

    Many of these refugees have not seen their spouses or children since before their arrival. Because they arrived by boat, they are barred from proposing family members through the humanitarian visa program and must use the family migration program.

    That’s significant because the humanitarian program has a much broader definition of “family”, and grants people access to settlement services after they arrive.

    Still unresolved is the fate of some 7,000 people who were refused protection under the flawed fast track system (a now abandoned policy that was supposed to speed up processing but actually introduced delays and unfairness).

    These people urgently need a pathway to permanency.

    Why family reunion remains so difficult

    The main barriers to family reunification for refugees include:

    • high visa fees (partner visa application charges, when they include children, can cost more than A$20,000)
    • strict legal definitions (children over 23 are not classified as “dependents”; a child who was 12 when their parent fled may now be 24 — legally an adult, but still dependent and at risk)
    • barriers to documentation (war and instability can make it difficult or dangerous to obtain documents, such as passports or identity papers)
    • limited access to embassies
    • technical issues with online applications
    • repeated health checks (there is a visa requirement health checks but they are only valid for 12 months, so may need to be repeated if visa processing is delayed)
    • unclear rules around exemptions.

    These uncertainties further delay the process and add emotional and financial strain.

    Calls for reform

    Several organisations, including the Refugee Council of Australia, have called for clear, achievable reforms. These include:

    • introducing visa application charge concessions for refugees
    • allowing people to pay fees in instalments
    • adapting visa processing to reflect realities faced by refugee and humanitarian visa applicants, such as challenges obtaining identity documents
    • establishing a dedicated unit in the Department of Home Affairs for processing visas from refugee families
    • prioritising families where children may “age out”.

    They have also called for changes to the legal definitions of “dependent” and “member of the family unit”. This is to reflect the diverse familial structures in many refugee communities.

    For many refugees, family extends beyond the Western concept of the nuclear family. It may also encompass, for instance, adult daughters and parents (who often play pivotal care-giving roles).

    Another big issue for many refugee families is single young women in Afghanistan being left behind because they have aged out.

    Reuniting families

    Australia can learn from other countries.

    Canada’s refugee sponsorship program actively supports family reunification.

    New Zealand offers a more affordable and flexible system. Their definitions of family are broader and visa fees are lower.

    Without family reunion, a refugee’s safety remains incomplete.

    As one refugee told researchers:

    I’m partly safer [in Australia], but inside I’m not safe […] I’m always afraid for the future of my family.

    Thousands of refugees in Australia are still waiting. Their families remain in danger. The legal and policy tools to fix this already exist. What’s missing, for now, is the political will.

    Reforming Australia’s family reunion system would mean more efficient refugee resettlement and integration, ultimately benefiting broader Australian society.

    Mary Anne Kenny is a member of the Migration Institute of Australia and the Law Council of Australia and an affiliate of the UNSW Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law. She was on the Ministerial Council on Asylum Seekers and Detention (an independent advisory body) between 2012 and 2018.

    – ref. ‘I’m always afraid for the future of my family’: why it’s too hard for some refugees to reunite with loved ones – https://theconversation.com/im-always-afraid-for-the-future-of-my-family-why-its-too-hard-for-some-refugees-to-reunite-with-loved-ones-254710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Do something about it before it gets worse’: young people want government action on gambling reform

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Pitt, Senior Research Fellow – Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University

    David P. Smith/Shutterstock

    Do something about it before it gets worse.

    This was a response from a 16-year-old boy in one of our recent studies when asked what he would say to the prime minister about gambling in Australia.

    This response is not uncommon.



    Read more:
    Gambling in Australia: how bad is the problem, who gets harmed most and where may we be heading?

    Calls for action

    Even before they can legally gamble at the age of 18, young people recognise the harms that the gambling industry (and those who profit from gambling, such as sporting codes) can cause to Australians.

    And they are frustrated by a lack of government action to protect them from these harms.

    They tell us that rather than prioritising the wellbeing of the community, the government is prioritising the profits of a harmful business.

    Politicians are also hearing concerns about gambling from the young people they represent in their communities.

    Urging parliamentary action on gambling advertising, former Australian rugby captain and Independent ACT Senator David Pocock told parliament:

    Talk to parents and young people. They’ll name all the gambling companies. They’ll be able to recite odds. They’ll talk about the odds for the upcoming games of their favourite teams. What I’m hearing from people here in the ACT that I represent is that this is not the direction they want to go in.

    Gambling has become a costly pastime for many young Australians.

    Starting young

    For more than a decade, our team has been talking to young people and their parents about the normalisation of gambling in Australia. We have carried out multiple studies that show how pervasive marketing tactics are normalising gambling for young Australians.

    Young people tell us they see innovative marketing strategies for different gambling products (including betting, lotteries and casinos) everywhere, including during family-friendly television shows, through watching and attending sport and even while walking down the street.

    They increasingly see promotions on social media sites such as TikTok and Snapchat.

    They can name multiple gambling brands from a young age, and think gambling gives you a reason to watch sport.

    When asked why, they say gambling adds to the fun and excitement of the game. Some tell us they would be convinced to gamble if they got a good “deal” from a company.

    Newer forms of app-based gambling also make it is easier for young people to gamble anywhere, anytime when they turn 18.

    As an example, a young person couldn’t sit in a classroom and drink alcohol when they reach the legal age, but it is not unusual for young people to tell us that classmates use apps to bet on major events while at school.

    Some researchers have also documented the extent to which young people gamble before the age of 18.

    One study found 31% of 12- to 17-year-olds had ever gambled and 6% had gambled in the past month. They found 8% were at some level of risk of gambling harm.

    It’s no wonder parents are worried.

    Their concern about the risks of gambling are similar to their concerns about alcohol: 70% are at least somewhat concerned about the risks associated with gambling for their children, and 27.7% are extremely concerned.

    They comment that gambling products are “highly accessible”, “attractive” and “in your face”.

    When parents try to talk to their children about gambling, they say it is almost impossible to “get the message across” given the constant exposure to ads that their children see in their everyday lives. As one father told us:

    It’s advertised to children every day of the week when they watch their favourite sport stars, so they think it’s normal.

    It’s time to act

    Government decisions about how to respond to the gambling industry will have a major impact on young people’s futures. But young people have rarely (if ever) been given an opportunity by the government to put forward their views.

    Research shows when they are given the opportunity to comment on gambling policy (and gambling industry tactics), they carefully consider the issues. They are also able to use their own experiences to suggest strategies that would help protect them and other young people from gambling industry harm.

    The United Nations states children have the right to be consulted about issues that matter to them and impact their futures. This includes strengthening engagement with children and young people, recognising their “agency, resilience and their positive contributions as agents of change”.

    Young people have been central actors in the climate justice movement, and have been key stakeholders in initiatives to respond to the tactics of the junk food and tobacco industries.

    While we talk a lot about the impact of the gambling industry on young people, governments rarely consult them about the policies that are needed to protect them from harm.

    Yet their message to the government in our research is clear. They:

    • are concerned about the influence of gambling marketing on the normalisation of gambling for young people, and its short and long-term impacts

    • believe current restrictions aimed at protecting young people are ineffective

    • are critical of the overwhelmingly positive messages about gambling they are exposed to, with very limited information about the risks and harms associated with the industry and its products.

    The following comment from a 15-year-old sums it up best:

    The wellbeing of the population is more important than the revenue that comes in from these sorts of businesses.

    Dr Hannah Pitt has received funding from the Australian Research Council, Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, VicHealth, NSW Office of Responsible Gambling, Department of Social Services, ACT Office of Gambling and Racing Commission, and Deakin University. She is currently a member of the Editorial Board of Health Promotion International.

    Grace Arnot has received funding for gambling related research from the ACT Office of Gambling and Racing Commission, VicHealth, and Deakin University. Grace is currently a member of the Editorial Board of the journal Health Promotion International.

    Professor Samantha Thomas has received funding for gambling and related research from the Australian Research Council, ACT Office of Gaming and Racing, Department of Social Services, VicHealth, Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, Healthway, NSW Office of Responsible Gambling, Deakin University. She is currently Editor in Chief for Health Promotion International, an Oxford University Press journal. She receives an honorarium for this role.

    Dr Simone McCarthy has received funding for gambling and related research from ACT Office of Gaming and Racing Commision, the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, VicHealth, Department of Social Services, and Deakin University. She is currently a member of the Editorial Board of Health Promotion International.

    – ref. ‘Do something about it before it gets worse’: young people want government action on gambling reform – https://theconversation.com/do-something-about-it-before-it-gets-worse-young-people-want-government-action-on-gambling-reform-251614

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –