Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rethinking repression − why memory researchers reject the idea of recovered memories of trauma

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gabrielle Principe, Professor of Psychology, College of Charleston

    Memories and photos both can misrepresent the past. Westend61 via Getty Images

    In 1990, George Franklin was convicted of murder and sentenced to life in prison based on the testimony of his 28-year-old daughter Eileen. She described seeing him rape her best friend and then smash her skull with a rock.

    When Eileen testified at her father’s trial, her memory of the murder was relatively fresh. It was less than a year old. Yet the murder happened 20 years earlier, when she was 8 years old.

    How can you have a one-year-old memory of something that happened 20 years ago? According to the prosecution, Eileen repressed her memory of the murder. Then much later she recovered it in complete detail.

    Can a memory of something so harrowing disappear for two decades and then resurface in a reliable form?

    This case launched a huge debate between memory researchers like me who argue there is no credible scientific evidence that repressed memories exist and practicing clinicians who claim that repressed memories are real.

    This controversy is not merely an academic one. Real people’s lives have been shattered by newly recollected traumatic experiences from childhood. I’ve seen this firsthand as a memory expert who consults on legal cases involving defendants accused of crimes they allegedly committed years or even decades ago. Often the only evidence linking the defendant to the crime is a recovered memory.

    But the scientific community disagrees about the existence of the phenomenon of repressed memory.

    Freud was the father of repression

    Nineteenth-century psychoanalytic theorist Sigmund Freud developed the concept of repression. He considered it a defense mechanism people use to protect themselves from traumatic experiences that become too overwhelming.

    The idea is that repression buries memories of trauma in your unconscious, where they – unlike other memories – reside unknown to you. They remain hidden, in a pristine, fixed form.

    In Freud’s view, repressed memories make themselves known by leaking out in mental and physical symptoms – symptoms that can be relieved only through recovering the traumatic memory in a safe psychological environment.

    In the 1980s, increasing numbers of therapists became concerned about the prevalence of child sexual abuse and the historical tendencies to dismiss or hide the maltreatment of children. This shift gave new life to the concept of repression.

    Rise of repressed memory recovery

    Therapists in this camp told clients that their symptoms, such as anxiety, depression or eating disorders, were the result of repressed memories of childhood sexual abuse that needed to be remembered to heal. To recover these memories, therapists used a range of techniques such as hypnosis, suggestive questioning, repeated imagining, bodywork and group sessions.

    Did recovered-memory therapy work? Many people who entered therapy for common mental health issues did come out with new and unexpected memories of childhood sexual abuse and other trauma, without physical evidence or corroboration from others.

    But were these memories real?

    The notion of repressed memories runs counter to decades of scientific evidence demonstrating that traumatic events tend to be very well remembered over long intervals of time. Many victims of documented trauma, ranging from the Holocaust to combat exposure, torture and natural disasters, do not appear to be able to block out their memories.

    In fact, trauma sometimes is too well remembered, as in the case of post-traumatic stress disorder. Recurrent and intrusive traumatic memories are a core symptom of PTSD.

    No memory ≠ repressed memory

    There are times when victims of trauma may not remember what happened. But this doesn’t necessarily mean the memory has been repressed. There are a range of alternative explanations for not remembering traumatic experiences.

    Trauma, like anything you experience, can be forgotten as the result of memory decay. Details fade with time, and retrieving the right remnants of experience becomes increasingly difficult if not impossible.

    Someone might make the deliberate choice to not think about upsetting events. Psychologists call this motivated forgetting or suppression.

    There also are biological causes of forgetting such as brain injury and substance abuse.

    Trauma also can interfere with the making of a memory in the first place. When stress becomes too big or too prolonged, attention can shift from the experience itself to attempts to regulate emotion, endure what’s happening or even survive. This narrow focus can result in little to no memory of what happened.

    A forgotten memory isn’t just waiting around to be rediscovered – it’s gone.
    malerapaso/E+ via Getty Images

    False memories

    If science rejects the notion of repressed memories, there’s still one question to confront: Where do newly recollected trauma memories, such as those triggered in recovered-memory therapy, come from?

    All memories are subject to distortions when you mistakenly incorporate expectations, assumptions or information from others that was not part of the original event.

    Memory researchers contend that memory recovery techniques might actually create false memories of things that never happened rather than resurrect existing memories of real experiences.

    To study this possibility, researchers asked participants to elaborate on events that never happened using the same sorts of suggestive questioning techniques used by recovered-memory therapists.

    What they found was startling. They were able to induce richly detailed false memories of a wide range of childhood traumatic experiences, such as choking, hospitalization and being a victim of a serious animal attack, in almost one-third of participants.

    These researchers were intentionally planting false memories. But I don’t think intention would be necessary on the part of a sympathetic therapist working with a suffering client.

    Are the memory wars over?

    The belief in repressed memories remains well entrenched among the general public and mental health professionals. More than half believe that traumatic experiences can become repressed in the unconscious, where they lurk, waiting to be uncovered.

    This remains the case even though in his later work, Freud revised his original concept of repression to argue that it doesn’t work on actual memories of experiences, but rather involves the inhibition of certain impulses, desires and fantasies. This revision rarely makes it into popular conceptions of repression.

    As evidence of the current widespread belief in repressed memories, in the past few years several U.S. states and European countries have extended or abolished the statute of limitations for the prosecution of sexual crimes, which allows for testimony based on allegedly recovered memories of long-ago crimes.

    Given the ease with which researchers can create false childhood memories, one of the unforeseen consequences of these changes is that falsely recovered memories of abuse might find their way into court – potentially leading to unfounded accusations and wrongful convictions.

    Gabrielle Principe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Rethinking repression − why memory researchers reject the idea of recovered memories of trauma – https://theconversation.com/rethinking-repression-why-memory-researchers-reject-the-idea-of-recovered-memories-of-trauma-237419

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Genomic sequencing reveals previously unknown genes that make microbes resistant to drugs and hard to kill

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nneka Vivian Iduu, Graduate Research Assistant in Pathobiology, Auburn University

    In the 20th century, when a routine infection was treated with a standard antibiotic, recovery was expected. But over time, the microbes responsible for these infections have evolved to evade the very drugs designed to eliminate them.

    Each year, there are more than 2.8 million antibiotic-resistant infections in the United States, leading to over 35,000 deaths and US$4.6 billion in health care costs. As antibiotics become less effective, antimicrobial resistance poses an increasing threat to public health.

    Antimicrobial resistance began to emerge as a serious threat in the 1940s with the rise of penicillin resistance. By the 1990s, it had escalated into a global concern. Decades later, critical questions still remain: How does antimicrobial resistance emerge, and how can scientists track the hidden changes leading to it? Why does resistance in some microbes remain undetected until an outbreak occurs? Filling these knowledge gaps is crucial to preventing future outbreaks, improving treatment outcomes and saving lives.

    Antimicrobial resistance can be deadly.

    Over the years, my work as a microbiologist and biomedical scientist has focused on investigating the genetics of infectious microbes. My colleagues and I identified a resistance gene previously undetected in the U.S. using genetic and computational methods that can help improve how scientists detect and track antimicrobial resistance.

    Challenges of detecting resistance

    Antimicrobial resistance is a natural process where microbes constantly evolve as a defense mechanism, acquiring genetic changes that enhance their survival.

    Unfortunately, human activities can speed up this process. The overuse and misuse of antibiotics in health care, farming and the environment push bacteria to genetically change in ways that allow them to survive the drugs meant to kill them.

    Early detection of antimicrobial resistance is crucial for effective treatment. Surveillance typically begins with a laboratory sample obtained from patients with suspected infections, which is then analyzed to identify potential antimicrobial resistance. Traditionally, this has been done using culture-based methods that involve exposing microbes to antibiotics in the lab and observing whether they survived to determine whether they were becoming resistant. Along with helping authorities and researchers monitor the spread of antimicrobial resistance, hospitals use this approach to decide on treatment plans.

    However, culture-based approaches have some limitations. Resistant infections often go unnoticed until antibiotics fail, making both detection and intervention processes slow. Additionally, new resistance genes may escape detection altogether.

    Genomics of antimicrobial resistance

    To overcome these challenges, researchers have integrated genomic sequencing into antimicrobial resistance surveillance. Through whole-genome sequencing, we can analyze all the DNA in a microbial sample to get a comprehensive view of all the genes present – including those responsible for resistance. With the computational tools of bioinformatics, researchers can efficiently process vast amounts of genetic data to improve the detection of resistance threats.

    Despite its advantages, integrating genomic sequencing into antimicrobial resistance monitoring presents some challenges of its own. High costs, quality assurance and a shortage of trained bioinformaticians make implementation difficult. Additionally, the complexity of interpreting genomic data may limit its use in clinical and public health decision-making.

    Bioinformatics allows researchers to analyze large biological datasets.
    hh5800/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Establishing international standards could help make whole-genome sequencing and bioinformatics a fully reliable tool for resistance surveillance. The World Health Organization recommends laboratories follow strict quality control measures to ensure accurate and comparable results. This includes using reliable, user-friendly computational tools and shared microbial databases. Additional strategies include investing in training programs and fostering collaborations between hospitals, research labs and universities.

    Discovering a resistance gene

    Combining whole genome sequencing and bioinformatics, my colleagues and I analyzed Salmonella samples collected from several animal species between 1982 and 1999. We discovered a Salmonella resistance gene called blaSCO-1 that has evaded detection in U.S. livestock for decades.

    The blaSCO-1 gene confers resistance to microbes against several critical antibiotics, including ampicillin, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and, to some extent, cephalosporins and carbapenems. These medications are crucial for treating infections in both humans and animals.

    Salmonella Typhimurium invading a cell.
    NIAID/Flickr, CC BY-SA

    The blaSCO-1 gene likely remained unreported because routine surveillance usually targets well-known resistance genes and it has overlapping functions with other genes. Gaps in bioinformatics expertise may have also hindered its identification.

    The failure to detect genes like blaSCO-1 raises concern about its potential role in past treatment failures. Between 2015 and 2018, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began implementing whole-genome sequencing for routine surveillance of Salmonella. Studies conducted during this period found that 77% of multistate outbreaks were linked to livestock harboring resistant Salmonella.

    These missed genes have significant implications for both food safety and public health. Undetected antimicrobial resistance genes can spread through food animals, contaminated food products, processing environments and agricultural runoff, allowing resistant bacteria to persist and reach humans. These resistant bacteria lead to infections that are harder to treat and increase the risk of outbreaks. Moreover, the global movement of people, livestock and goods means that these resistant strains can easily cross borders, turning local outbreaks into worldwide health threats.

    Identifying new resistance genes not only fills a critical knowledge gap, but it also demonstrates how genomic and computational approaches can help detect hidden resistance mechanisms before they pose widespread threats.

    Strengthening surveillance

    As antimicrobial resistance continues to rise, adopting a One Health approach that integrates human, animal and environmental factors can help ensure that emerging resistance does not outpace humans’ ability to combat it.

    Initiatives like the Quadripartite AMR Multi-Partner Trust Fund provide support for programs that strengthen global collaborative surveillance, promote responsible antimicrobial use and drive the development of sustainable alternatives. Ensuring researchers around the world follow common research standards will allow more labs – especially those in low- and middle-income countries – to contribute to global surveillance efforts.

    The health of future generations depends on the world’s ability to ensure food safety and protect public health on a global scale. In the ongoing battle between microbial evolution and human innovation, vigilance and adaptability are key to staying ahead.

    This research was supported by the USDA Agricultural Research Service Program, the FDA and the HHS.

    ref. Genomic sequencing reveals previously unknown genes that make microbes resistant to drugs and hard to kill – https://theconversation.com/genomic-sequencing-reveals-previously-unknown-genes-that-make-microbes-resistant-to-drugs-and-hard-to-kill-250148

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Activist group praises Pacific support for West Papua but slams NZ

    By Christine Rovoi of PMN News

    A human rights group in Aotearoa New Zealand has welcomed support from several Pacific island nations for West Papua, which has been under Indonesian military occupation since the 1960s.

    West Papua is a region (with five provinces) in the far east of Indonesia, centred on the island of New Guinea. Half of the eastern side of New Guinea is Papua New Guinea.

    West Papua Action Aotearoa claims the Indonesian occupation of West Papua has resulted in serious human rights violations, including a lack of press freedom.

    Catherine Delahunty, the group’s spokesperson, says many West Papuans have been displaced as a result of Indonesia’s military activity.

    In an interview with William Terite on PMN’s Pacific Mornings, the environmentalist and former Green Party MP said most people did not know much about West Papua “because there’s virtually a media blackout around this country”.

    “It’s an hour away from Darwin [Australia], and yet, most people don’t know what has been going on there since the 1960s. It’s a very serious and tragic situation, which is the responsibility of all of us as neighbours,” she said.

    “They [West Papuans] regard themselves fully as members of the Pacific community but are treated by Indonesia as an extension of their empire because they have all these natural resources, which Indonesia is rapidly extracting, using violence to maintain the state.”

    Delahunty said the situation was “very disturbing”, adding there was a “need for support and change alongside the West Papuan people”.

    UN support
    In a recent joint statement to the United Nations Human Rights Council, the leaders of Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Marshall Islands, Sāmoa and Vanuatu called on the global community to support the displaced people of West Papua.

    A Free West Papua rally. Image: Nichollas Harrison/PMN News

    Delahunty said the Pacific island nations urged the UN Council to advocate for human rights in West Papua.

    She also said West Papua Action Aotearoa wanted Indonesia to allow a visit from a UN human rights commissioner, a request that Indonesia has consistently denied.

    She said Sāmoa was the latest country to support West Papua, contrasting this with the “lack of action from larger neighbours like New Zealand and Australia”.

    Delahunty said that while smaller island nations and some African groups supported West Papua, more powerful states provide little assistance.

    “It’s great that these island nations are keeping the issue alive at the United Nations, but we particularly want to shout out to Sāmoa because it’s a new thing,” she told Terite.

    “They’ve never, as a government, made public statements. There are many Sāmoan people who support West Papua, and I work with them. But it’s great to see their government step up and make the statement.”

    Benny Wenda (right), a West Papuan independence leader, with Eni Faleomavaega, the late American Sāmoan congressman, a supporter of the Free West Papua campaign. Image: Office of Benny Wenda/PMN News

    Historically, the only public statements supporting West Papua have come from American Sāmoan congressman Eni Faleomavaega, who strongly advocated for it until he died in 2017.

    Praise for Sāmoa
    Delahunty praised Sāmoa’s support for the joint statement but voiced her disappointment at New Zealand and Australia.

    “What’s not encouraging is the failure of Australia and New Zealand to actually support this kind of joint statement and to vigorously stand up for West Papua because they have a lot of power in the region,” she said.

    “They’re the big states, and yet it’s the leadership of the smaller nations that we see today.”

    In September 2024, Phillip Mehrtens, a pilot from New Zealand, was released by West Papua rebels after being held captive for 19 months.

    Mehrtens, 39, was kidnapped by West Papua National Liberation Army fighters in February 2023 and was released after lengthy negotiations and “critical’ diplomatic efforts by authorities in Wellington and Jakarta.

    New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Affairs Minister Vaovasamanaia Winston Peters welcomed his release.

    New Zealand pilot Phillip Mehrtens was kidnapped by militants in West Papua on 7 March 2023. He was released 19 months later. Image: TPNPB/PMN News

    Why is there conflict in West Papua?
    Once a Dutch colony, the region is divided into five provinces, the two largest being Papua and West Papua. It is separate from PNG, which gained independence from Australia in 1975.

    Papuan rebels seeking independence from Indonesia have issued threats and attacked aircraft they believe are carrying personnel and delivering supplies for Jakarta.

    The resource-rich region has sought independence since 1969, when it came under Indonesia’s control following a disputed UN-supervised vote.

    Conflicts between indigenous Papuans and Indonesian authorities have been common with pro-independence fighters increasing their attacks since 2018.

    The Free Papua Movement has conducted a low-intensity guerrilla war against Indonesia, targeting military and police personnel, along with ordinary Indonesian civilians.

    Human rights groups estimate that Indonesian security forces have killed more than 300,000 West Papuans since the conflict started.

    But the Indonesian government denies any wrongdoing, claiming that West Papua is part of Indonesia and was integrated after the controversial “Act of Free Choice” in 1969.

    Manipulated process
    The Act of Free Choice has been widely criticised as a manipulated process, with international observers and journalists raising concerns about the fairness and legitimacy of the plebiscite.

    Despite the criticism, the United States and its allies in the region, New Zealand and Australia, have supported Indonesia’s efforts to gain acceptance in the UN for the pro-integration vote.

    Human rights groups, such as Delahunty’s West Papua Action Aotearoa, have raised “serious concerns” about the deteriorating human rights situation in Papua and West Papua.

    They cite alarming abuses against indigenous Papuans, including child killings, disappearances, torture, and mass displacement.

    Delahunty believes the hope for change lies with the nations of Te Moana Nui a Kiwa. She said it also came from the younger people in Indonesia today.

    “This is a colonisation issue, and it’s a bit like Aotearoa, in the sense that when the people who have been part of the colonising start addressing the issue, you get change. But it’s far too slow. So we are so disappointed.”

    Republished with permission from PMN News.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: How political leaders communicate climate policy c should be a defining factor this election

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andrew Heffernan, Climate Associate at the Information Integrity Lab and Adjunct Professor in Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Prime Minister Mark Carney has called an April 28 federal election, setting the stage for a campaign where climate policy could be a central issue.

    The current iteration of Canada’s consumer carbon rebate is dead — which many view as a casualty of effective communication — yet climate policy remains a pressing topic for voters and a major battleground for political leaders.




    Read more:
    The Canada Carbon Rebate is still widely misunderstood — here’s why


    As Canada grapples with intensifying climate-related challenges, the next government will not only need to implement evidence-based policies to meet international climate commitments, but also effectively communicate its vision to voters.

    The public remains concerned about environmental issues, yet many are worried that bold climate policies have damaged the economy. This tension between environmental responsibility and economic growth will shape how each party formulates and communicates their climate policies in the upcoming campaign.

    The Liberals: Navigating the middle ground

    For Carney and the Liberal Party, the challenge is twofold. First, the Liberals must present a new climate plan after the collapse of the consumer carbon rebate, which has faced widespread public opposition in recent years.

    While the new Liberal leader has already terminated the the carbon rebate, it still remains unclear what exactly his comprehensive climate plan will look like. Carney’s website states that his strategy will: “Provide incentives for consumers. Put more of the burden on big polluters. And help us build the strongest economy in the G7.”




    Read more:
    Big government, big trouble? Defending the future of Canada’s climate policy


    This suggests his climate policy will hinge more on positive incentives for consumers to invest in sustainable approaches rather than putting a cost on polluting.

    While the carbon rebate initially enjoyed broad support as a key tool for reducing emissions, it has become a lightning rod for political controversy.

    Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue; it’s increasingly seen as a matter of economic survival, with green energy jobs and clean technologies representing an opportunity for Canada to position itself as a global leader in the sector.

    Carney will have to make a convincing case that his policy will create jobs, stimulate innovation and provide a clear path toward a greener, more sustainable economy.

    Failing to do so could lead to the loss of centrist and moderate voters, some of whom are wary of the perceived economic risks of aggressive climate action.

    The Conservatives: Axing the rebate isn’t enough

    On the opposite end of the political spectrum, federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made axing the carbon rebate a central part of his platform.

    Framing the carbon rebate as an economic penalty, Poilievre has played into populist sentiments by promising to “axe the tax” and relieve financial pressures on Canadian families and businesses.

    However, even if the Conservatives are successful in eliminating the carbon rebate, they still face the challenge of needing a comprehensive climate policy that lowers emissions and meets Canada’s Paris Agreement targets. Poilievre has said he would not withdraw Canada from the accord, but he hasn’t addressed how he would meet Canada’s commitments.

    Poilievre’s populist rhetoric may resonate with voters who feel economically squeezed, but it’s unlikely to be enough to win over voters concerned about the climate crisis — especially as he has voted against environmental and climate action in Parliament over 400 times in his career, a point his opponents will be sure to raise repeatedly.

    For the Conservatives, the real challenge will be how to present a climate policy that appeals to both economic conservatives, who prioritize fiscal responsibility, and environmental conservatives, who are concerned about the future of the planet.

    Poilievre will need to clearly articulate how his policies will preserve Canada’s environmental future without stifling economic growth or inflating costs for the average Canadian.

    NDP and Green Party

    A key piece of the future of climate policy in Canada will be the NDP and Green Party, who are generally considered left-of-centre parties alongside the governing Liberals.

    The NDP, which can siphon progressive votes away from the Liberals — which sometimes benefits Conservatives — have been clear as mud when it comes to their climate policy for the next election.

    NDP leader Jagmeet Singh rescinded his party’s long-standing support for the Liberal carbon rebate in April 2024, but has not yet said what his party would put in its place.

    Meanwhile, the Green Party, which has historically played a less significant role in electoral outcomes in terms of vote splitting, has generally maintained its support for the carbon rebate. Its website suggests the party supports the polluter-pays principle. However, the Greens have yet to take a clear stance on the shifting climate grounds on which this election could partially be fought.

    Political communication the key to success

    In the coming years, the future of climate policy in Canada will be less about crafting the perfect policy and more about crafting a message that addresses how people are feeling.

    The Liberal Party has been open about the demise of the carbon rebate being a combination of a lack of their own effective communication strategy, mixed with harmful disinformation campaigns that led to the demise of their signature climate policy.

    For the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens alike, the road to effective climate policy will lie in this communication. Political leaders will need to balance ambition and pragmatism, ensuring their policies align with Canadians’ economic interests.

    With 71 per cent of Canadians suggesting they want the next government to do more to address climate change, leaders who can articulate a vision for a sustainable, prosperous future while addressing the immediate concerns of Canadians will be the ones who have the best chance of winning the public’s trust — and the next election.

    Andrew Heffernan is affiliated with the Liberal Party of Canada.

    ref. How political leaders communicate climate policy c should be a defining factor this election – https://theconversation.com/how-political-leaders-communicate-climate-policy-c-should-be-a-defining-factor-this-election-251990

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: 4 key changes you may have missed in the new school funding agreement

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Wilson, Professor of Social Impact, University of Technology Sydney

    Queensland and the federal government have reached an agreement on school funding. This means all Australian states and territories are now signed up to new arrangements, which officially began at the start of 2025.

    The agreement follows more than a year of negotiations between the federal and state governments.

    The agreements mean government schools will receive 25% of funding from the federal government, up from 20%. Cash-strapped state and territory governments now only have to find 75% (down from 80%).

    In some good news for schools, it also means there is now a firm plan to “fully fund” public schools by 2034. This means they will get 100% of the funding recommended by the schooling resource standard (or school funding mechanism) – albeit more than a decade after it was first recommended by the Gonski review in 2011.

    Much of the debate about the agreements has understandably focused on the funding split between federal and state governments.

    But the agreements also tie vital funding for schools to specific targets and reforms for the next ten years. There is plenty of fine print.

    Here are four major changes we can expect to see in schools and classrooms around Australia.




    Read more:
    Underfunded? Overfunded? How school funding works in Australia


    1. A ‘unique’ identifier for all students

    The new agreement will see all students receive a “unique student identifier” as part of a national system.

    This is a number all students will have from the time they start school. It would follow them through school to tertiary education or any other further study or training.

    The idea was first agreed to by the former Council of Australian Governments in 2009 and is already in place for university and vocational education students.

    A long time in the planning, it was included in the last school funding agreement, which expired at the end of 2024, despite little progress.

    At the moment, education systems can easily lose track of students. For example, pre-COVID an estimated 50,000 children and young people were not officially tracked by education authorities.

    The identifier number means governments will be able to track students across school systems. For example, if they move from the public system to the private system. Or if they move states or begin homeschooling.

    The identifier will also provide a greater understanding of the pathways taken by young people after school and potentially make it easier to link senior high schooling with TAFE and other vocational studies.

    Introducing a bill to set up architecture for the indentifier last year, federal Education Minister Jason Clare said it would have “robust privacy measures”, including protection under the Privacy Act.




    Read more:
    NSW has finally struck a school funding deal. What does this mean for schools and students?


    2. A new numeracy check

    Along with rolling out a well-publicised national phonics check for Year 1 (which some states are already doing), the new agreements include a numeracy check for young students.

    While numeracy is checked as part of NAPLAN in Year 3, the test was not designed to provide diagnostic data on individual students.

    The new checks will be used to identify students and schools in need of extra support.

    So far, we have few details on the design or time frames. The checks may also need significant research and development to work effectively. But existing programs (such as in South Australia) show screening checks have the potential to provide better monitoring and resourcing for student needs.

    3. A review of how school funding is calculated

    The new agreement also flags two more significant reviews.

    One will be on the way school funding is calculated – the first review since the current system was devised in 2011.

    The schooling resource standard is an estimate of how much total public funding a school needs to meet its students’ educational needs.

    In 2025, the base rates are A$13,977 for primary students and $17,565 for high school students. On top of these, there are six loadings to provide extra funding for students and schools with additional needs. This includes students with disability, Indigenous students and students in remote areas.

    But as a 2023 Productivity Commission review noted, some individual students qualify under multiple categories, and “the effects can be compounding”. This means this level of disadvantage needs more understanding and policy adjustment.

    The review will examine the methodology behind the base rate and loadings. As part of this, it will hopefully look at transparency around school funding arrangements. The Australian National Audit Office identified this as an issue as far back as 2017.

    4. A review of how schools are measured

    There will also be a review of the national Measurement Framework for Schooling in Australia. This details key performance measures for schooling, such as attendance, NAPLAN results and school completion.

    This framework usually has just minor adjustments about every couple of years. But a more significant overhaul is now in the works, with states agreeing a review will look at “possible new and updated measures”.

    These could include indicators for students’ engagement and learning growth, as well as outcomes for students with disability and the teaching workforce.

    An improved national data set holds enormous potential for addressing educational challenges, like declining participation rates, school refusal and teacher shortages.

    Elsewhere in the new agreement, states and territories also agreed to “better understand” how socioeconomic diversity and school attendance are impacting student learning. This can be seen as high-level acknowledgement the current reporting mechanisms and data on students need to improve.

    Now we need to see progress

    The new schools agreement contains some promising new measures to improve outcomes for students and teachers. But we now need to see them implemented.

    As the Productivity Commission and National Audit Office have previously noted, just because something is included in a school funding agreement, does not necessarily mean it will happen on time or as planned.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. 4 key changes you may have missed in the new school funding agreement – https://theconversation.com/4-key-changes-you-may-have-missed-in-the-new-school-funding-agreement-252291

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Federal budget 2025: here’s what we know so far

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Cooper-Douglas, Deputy Politics + Society Editor

    The federal budget will be handed down by Treasurer Jim Chalmers at 7:30PM AEDT on Tuesday March 25.

    While the official budget papers are under lock and key until then, the government has been making spending announcements for weeks. Here’s what we know.



    Total promised spending is $29.3 billion, excluding off-budget spending on education, and over a range of forward years. Data is sourced from federal government announcements.

    ref. Federal budget 2025: here’s what we know so far – https://theconversation.com/federal-budget-2025-heres-what-we-know-so-far-252925

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why isn’t there an opposition leader to unite Democrats in the US?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Garrett, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    In just two months back in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump has tested the limits of the US Constitution, from overhauling immigration to drastically reducing the federal workforce and dismantling government agencies.

    With Republicans now in control of both the Senate and House of Representatives, Congress has so far shown little sign it will stand in Trump’s way.

    The judiciary is the other branch of government that can check the power of the president. However, the Trump administration has appeared increasingly willing to simply ignore decisions handed down by judges.

    There has also been a notable lack of unified opposition from the Democratic Party.

    Congressional Democrats are demoralised and deeply divided over how to respond to Trump. They face criticism, too, over their apparent lack of strategy.

    This has led some to ask why the United States lacks a formal political opposition leader.

    How opposition leaders operate in other countries

    In the American political system, the loser of the presidential election doesn’t retain a position as leader of the party in opposition. Instead, they tend to disappear from view.

    Kamala Harris is considering a run for governor of California — and could well attempt another run for president in 2028 or beyond. But she hasn’t remained a vocal counterpoint to Trump since he took office.

    By contrast, in countries with Westminster-style parliamentary systems, such as Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and India, the main party not in power selects an opposition leader from among their ranks. In most countries, this position is defined by convention, not law.

    The opposition leader in many countries serves as the main face — and voice — of the party not in power. They work to keep the government accountable and are seen as the leader of an alternative government-in-waiting.

    What it takes to lead the opposition in the US

    During Trump’s first term, the Democratic speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, was widely recognised as the de facto Democratic opposition leader.

    A skilled negotiator, Pelosi was largely able to unite the Democrats behind her to lead the opposition to Trump’s legislative agenda — famously ripping up a copy of Trump’s State of the Union address on the House podium in 2020.

    As Senate majority and minority leader, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell successfully blocked swathes of legislation during Barack Obama’s presidency. He even thwarted a US Supreme Court nomination.

    In the 1980s, then-Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill led the Democratic opposition to Republican President Ronald Reagan’s domestic agenda, without resorting to obstructionism.

    However, for an opposition figure to have this level of influence, they usually need decades of experience, political skill, and a party in control of the House or Senate.

    The Democrats no longer have a majority in either chamber and are no longer led by Pelosi. Hakeem Jeffries has been the House minority leader since 2023, but without the speaker’s gavel or control of any committees, he has limited influence.

    Party discipline is typically far more unwieldy in the United States compared to other countries. In Australia, for instance, crossing the floor to vote against your own party is very rare.

    Unruly party caucuses make it significantly more difficult for a single party figurehead to emerge unless they command near-universal party loyalty and respect among their members in both chambers.

    Will Democratic cracks shatter the party?

    The Democratic caucus, already strained by Joe Biden’s late withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, is now even more fractured.

    The Democrats continue to grapple with their resounding defeat in November, which saw the party lose ground with almost every demographic across the country. Polling shows public support for the Democrats has slumped to unprecedented lows, with just over a quarter of voters holding a positive view of the party.

    Most dramatically, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer defied fellow Democrats (including Jeffries) by voting in favour of a resolution in recent weeks to avoid a government shutdown. His decision sparked an uproar from his party colleagues.

    Visual images of the party’s disarray were also on clear display during Trump’s joint address to Congress earlier this month. While some representatives protested loudly, others followed leadership instruction to remain silent.

    Democrats were in near lock-step on almost all issues during Trump’s first term, as well as Biden’s presidency. Now, some are calling on Schumer to step aside as minority leader — and for the Democrats to coalesce behind a younger, more outspoken leader such as Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

    Where next for the party?

    In the fractious debates now consuming the party, some see parallels with the emergence of the Tea Party movement within the Republican Party during Barack Obama’s first term in office.

    The current Democratic division could result in the emergence of a stronger dissident faction within the party. And this could push a harder line in opposition to Trump, no longer toeing the line from party leadership.

    Yet, while the political outlook for Democrats may appear bleak, electoral turnarounds can happen quickly in the United States.

    Few expected a demoralised Democratic party to turn John Kerry’s heavy defeat to George W Bush in 2004 into a generational victory just four years later. Similarly, after Obama decisively won reelection against Mitt Romney in 2012, few Republicans could have predicted they’d soon be back in power with Trump.

    But, as was the case 20 years ago, the soul-searching process will be painful for the Democrats. Whether it’s Ocasio-Cortez or another figure, the 2026 midterm elections are likely to be the best opportunity for a new central leader to emerge on the national stage.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why isn’t there an opposition leader to unite Democrats in the US? – https://theconversation.com/why-isnt-there-an-opposition-leader-to-unite-democrats-in-the-us-252384

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Mystery solved: our tests reveal the tiny algae killing fish and harming surfers on SA beaches

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Murray, Professor; Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney

    Anthony Rowland

    Confronting images of dead seadragons, fish and octopuses washed up on South Australian beaches – and disturbing reports of “more than 100” surfers and beachgoers suffering flu-like symptoms after swimming or merely breathing in sea spray – attracted international concern last week.

    Speculation about the likely cause ranged from pollution and algae to unusual bacterial infections or viruses. Today we can reveal the culprit was a tiny – but harmful – type of planktonic algae called Karenia mikimotoi.

    The SA government sent us water samples from Waitpinga Beach, Petrel Cove Beach, Encounter Bay Boat Ramp and Parsons Headland on Tuesday. We studied the water under the microscope and extracted DNA for genetic analysis.

    Our results revealed high numbers of the tiny harmful algal species – each just 20 microns in diameter (where one micron is one thousandth of a millimetre). While relatively common in Australian coastal waters, blooms of K. mikimotoi occur only sporadically. But similar harmful algal blooms and fish kills due to K. mikimotoi have happened in the past, such as the 2014 bloom in Coffin Bay, SA. And this latest one won’t be the last.

    Sick surfers and dead marine life from strange sea foam (ABC News)

    Harmful algal blooms

    Single-celled, microbial algae occur naturally in seawater all over the world.

    They are also called phytoplankton, because they float in the water column and photosynthesise like plants. “Phyto” comes from the Greek word for plant and “plankton” comes from the Greek word for wanderer, which relates to their floating movement with ocean currents and tides.

    Like plants on land, the microalgae or phytoplankton in the ocean capture sunlight and produce up to half the oxygen in our atmosphere. There are more than 100,000 different species of microalgae. Every litre of seawater will normally contain a mixed group of these different microalgae species.

    But under certain conditions, just a single species of microalgae can accumulate in one area and dominate over the others. If we are unlucky, the dominant species may be one that produces a toxin or has a harmful effect.

    This so-called “harmful algal bloom” can cause problems for people and for marine life such as fish, invertebrates such as crabs, and even marine mammals such as whales and seals.

    There are hundreds of different species of harmful algae. Each produces its own type of toxin with a particular toxic effect.

    Most of these toxic chemical compounds produced by harmful algae are quite well known, including neurotoxins that affect the brain. But others are more complicated, and the mechanisms of toxicity are poorly understood. This can make it more difficult to understand the factors leading to the deaths of fish and other marine life. Unfortunately, the toxins from K. mikimotoi fall into this latter category.

    Introducing Karenia mikimotoi

    Karenia mikimotoi under the microscope.
    Shauna Murray

    The species responsible for recent events in SA beaches, K. mikimotoi, causes harmful algal blooms in Asia, Europe, South Africa and South America, as well as Australia and New Zealand. These blooms all caused fish deaths, and some also caused breathing difficulties among local beachgoers.

    The most drastic of these K. mikimotoi blooms have occurred in China over the past two decades. In 2012, more than 300 square kilometres of abalone farms were affected, causing about A$525 million in lost production.

    Explaining the toxic effects

    Microalgae can damage the gills of fish and shellfish, preventing them from breathing. This is the main cause of death. But some studies have also found damage to the gastrointestinal tracts and livers of fish.

    Tests using fish gill cells clearly show the dramatic toxic effect of K. mikimotoi. When the fish gill cells were exposed to intact K. mikimotoi cells, after 3.5 hours more than 80% of the fish cells had died.

    Fortunately, the toxin does not persist in the environment after the K. mikimotoi cells are dead. So once the bloom is over, the marine environment can recover relatively quickly.

    Its toxicity is partly due to the algae’s production of “reactive oxygen species”, reactive forms of oxygen molecules which can cause the deaths of cells in high doses. K. mikimotoi cells may also produce lipid (fat) molecules that cause some toxic effects.

    Finally, a very dense bloom of microalgae can sometimes reduce the amount of dissolved oxygen in the water column, which means there is less oxygen for other marine life.

    The human health effects are not very well known but probably relate to the reactive oxygen species being an irritant.

    K. mikimitoi cells can also produce “mucilage”, a type of thick, gluey substance made of complex sugars, which can accumulate bacteria inside it. This can cause “sea foam”, which was evident on beaches last week.

    South Australia’s marine emblem, the leafy seadragon, washed up dead on the beach.
    Anthony Rowland

    Unanswered questions remain

    A question for many people is whether increasing water temperatures make blooms of K. mikimotoi more likely.

    Another concern is whether nutrient runoff from farms, cities and aquaculture could cause more harmful algal blooms.

    Unfortunately, for Australia at least, the answer to these questions is we don’t know yet. While we know some harmful algal blooms do increase when nutrient runoff is higher, others actually prefer fewer nutrients or colder temperatures.

    We do know warmer water species seem to be moving further south along the Australian coastline, changing phytoplankton species abundance and distribution.

    While some microalgal blooms can cause bioluminescence that is beautiful to watch, others such as K. mikimotoi can cause skin and respiratory irritations.

    If you notice discoloured water, fish deaths or excessive sea foam along the coast or in an estuary, avoid fishing or swimming in the area and notify local primary industry or environmental authorities in your state.

    Shauna Murray receives funding from the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, the New South Wales Recreational Fisheries Trust, the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, and the Storm and Flood Industry Recovery Program. She is President of the Austalasian Society of Phycology and Aquatic Botany and past chair of the NSW Shellfish Committee.

    Greta Gaiani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Mystery solved: our tests reveal the tiny algae killing fish and harming surfers on SA beaches – https://theconversation.com/mystery-solved-our-tests-reveal-the-tiny-algae-killing-fish-and-harming-surfers-on-sa-beaches-252810

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Synchronised bleaching: Ningaloo and the Great Barrier Reef are bleaching in unison for the first time

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zoe Richards, Senior Research Fellow in Marine Biology, Curtin University

    Ningaloo Reef from the air. Violeta Brosig/Shutterstock

    This summer, an intense marine heatwave struck off northwestern Australia, driving sea surface temperatures up to 4°C above the summer average. The large mass of warm water has slowly moved south from the Kimberley region and through the Pilbara, leaving a wave of underwater destruction behind. Now Ningaloo Reef is bleaching in earnest.

    The Great Barrier Reef is bleaching too in the waters from Cape York down to Townsville.

    This appears to be the first time these two World Heritage-listed reefs have bleached in unison. Bleaching may also hit the World Heritage reef at Shark Bay in Western Australia.

    How bad is it? I have just returned from Ningaloo Reef, where I saw widespread bleaching and the first signs of coral mortality. Up to 90% of the coral found in shallow areas of the northern lagoon had bleached. Bleaching doesn’t automatically mean death, but it severely weakens the coral and jeopardises survival.

    At Ningaloo and further south, the heatwave is still unfolding. In coming months, we can expect to see some coral mortality, while other corals will survive the bleaching in poor health only to succumb to disease or other threats such as Drupella (coral-eating snails). Other corals may survive but struggle to reproduce, but some particularly hardy corals with the right combination of genes for surviving this event are expected to live on.

    Why is this happening? No surprises here: our greenhouse gas emissions trap more heat in the atmosphere. Over 90% of the heat pours into the oceans, pushing surface and deep water temperatures higher for longer periods of time.

    How bad has the heat been?

    Coral can tolerate brief periods of higher temperatures. But in response to prolonged heat stress, coral polyps expel their symbiotic zooxanthellae algae. They appear to do this to avoid further tissue damage from toxic reactive oxygen molecules which build up as the coral begins to stress. But these microalgae supply sugary food to the coral polyps in exchange for a home. Without these nutrients, the coral can starve.

    Heat stress is tracked using a measure called “degree heating weeks” (DHW) – essentially, how much above-average heat has built up in an area over the previous three months. Bleaching can begin at four DWH, while eight DHW can kill some corals.

    At Ningaloo, the heat has been off the charts – levels of up to 16 DHW have been recorded, the highest on record for this location.

    On the Great Barrier Reef, bleaching is underway in the northernmost section. This is the sixth bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef this decade. Early data suggests there is severe heat in places, ranging from six to 13 DHW in intensity and alerts remain for more heat and bleaching to come.

    Bleaching is usually worst for corals growing in shallow water, such as the calm lagoons created by fringing or barrier reefs. Lagoons often have clear waters with high light penetration and limited flushing of water.



    Ningaloo in hot water

    Over ten days, we recorded the health and type of every coral we saw at 21 sites along Ningaloo Reef, from Coral Bay to the northern tip of North West Cape and into Exmouth Gulf.

    The worst affected area that we observed was a 30 km stretch at the northern end of the North West Cape, the peninsula along which Ningaloo Reef runs. Here, we saw mass bleaching – up to 90% of corals partly or fully bleaching and some corals were already dying.

    Fast-growing corals from the Acroporid and Pocilloporid families were hard hit, as often seen in other bleaching events. But we also saw slower-growing and normally hardy corals bleaching, such Lobophyllia, Favites and Goniastrea.

    Even the massive Porites corals in the lagoons were suffering. These giant boulder-like corals are the old growth and sentinels of the reef. Many of these ordinarily resilient corals are hundreds of years old and have survived past smaller bleaching events. But this time, they too are severely suffering.

    Not even ocean-facing corals exposed to more water flow were safe. We found 30 to 50% of the corals on the reef slope were bleached to some degree. Coral diseases such as white band disease were already affecting many flat plate corals. These diseases often follow marine heatwaves, as they take advantage of coral’s weakened immune systems and the disruption of the symbiotic relationship between coral polyps and their algae.

    The timing is especially bad for Ningaloo’s corals, which usually spawn around five days after the March full moon, which fell on March 19 this year. By contrast, corals on the Great Barrier Reef tend to spawn between October and December.

    For the reef to recover quickly, it needs yearly influxes of new coral recruits. But if corals are struggling to survive, there is a risk they will not be fit enough to reproduce. Corals take three to six years to become reproductively viable and if bleaching impedes reproduction, it could greatly reduce the number of larvae available to replenish the reef. In addition to that, if immature corals bleach and die, there’s a risk several generations of corals could be lost before reaching maturity.

    Fortunately we did observe healthy and reproductive corals along the outer rim of the lagoon at Coral Bay, and locals have recently reported seeing spawning near Coral Bay. This suggests some coral were indeed healthy enough to spawn.

    What will happen next?

    As the southern hemisphere heads towards winter, the oceans will begin to cool off. That doesn’t mean the threat is over – oceans are only getting hotter.

    If we continue on our current path, simultaneous east and west coast bleaching events could become the new normal – and that would be devastating for our reefs, marine biodiversity, the blue economy and the wellbeing of Australians.

    Zoe Richards receives funding from the Minderoo Foundation. This work was undertaken by the Coral Conservation and Research Group at Curtin University in partnership with the Minderoo Exmouth Research Laboratory.

    ref. Synchronised bleaching: Ningaloo and the Great Barrier Reef are bleaching in unison for the first time – https://theconversation.com/synchronised-bleaching-ningaloo-and-the-great-barrier-reef-are-bleaching-in-unison-for-the-first-time-252906

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Tennis pros rally for better pay and less punishing schedules, amid wider power struggles in world sport

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eric Windholz, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Monash University

    Last week, the Novak Djokovic-led Professional Tennis Players Association (PTPA) announced it was suing the sport’s governing bodies – the men’s (ATP) and women’s (WTA) tours, the International Tennis Federation (ITF) and the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA).

    The lawsuit:

    • seeks to change the prize money formula designed by the men’s and women’s tours (the PTPA says too little of the sport’s revenue goes to players)
    • aims to improve the “unsustainable” 11-month calendar and match schedules that often keep players on court well past midnight
    • alleges a “heavy-handed approach” by the ITIA
    • criticises the sport’s rankings system
    • wants to boost the number of combined men’s-women’s events.

    The union, cofounded by Djokovic five years ago, also alleges “anti-competitive practices and a blatant disregard for player welfare”.

    The lawsuit is just one example of a battle for control of international sport – the outcome of which will shape sport for years to come.

    The power of sport governing bodies

    Sport’s international governing bodies – such the International Olympic Committee, soccer’s governing body the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) and, in the case of tennis, the ATP, WTA and ITF – are masters of their domains.

    These bodies exercise great power and autonomy over the competitions they administer. They determine who competes in their competitions, when and where, as well as rules and policies.

    These rules cover tournament schedules, player eligibility and anti-doping policies. Players, teams and even countries that breach these rules are subject to penalties including expulsion from competitions.

    Governments have largely been willing partners in this. They have respected the autonomy of these governing bodies and assisted them where necessary by, for example, hosting their mega-events such as the Olympics, World Cups and Grand Slam tournaments.

    However, this is changing.

    A changing landscape

    As shown by the PTPA lawsuit, players are seeking a greater share of sports’ economic pie, better working conditions, more freedom in selecting where and when they play, and a greater say in how their sports are run.

    Private investors also are seeking to share in the money being made from sport by establishing rival competitions.

    These include the Wall Street-backed, but ultimately ill-fated, European Super League (soccer); the International Swimming League, funded by billionaire swimming fan Konstantin Grigorishin; and the Saudi-Arabia backed LIV Golf tour.

    In response, some fans and lower-level teams are organising to protect their clubs from the influx of private money.

    In the United Kingdom, this has resulted in proposed legislation to establish an independent regulator of football.

    And all of this is occurring in the shadow of a broader geopolitical restructuring in which the West’s traditional hegemony over sport is being challenged by the wealth of the Gulf states, the assertiveness of authoritarian regimes, and the emerging economies of the Global South.

    The result is a contest for control between actors and forces, both powerful and passionate.

    The outcome of this contest is important because sport is a generator of significant economic activity (a recent study estimated the global sport industry to be the ninth largest industry on earth) and an important vehicle for driving social change – both of which also make it politically important.

    What does the future hold?

    When confronted with forces for change, sport governing bodies generally go through a three-stage process of denial (rejecting the need for change), resistance (fighting the change), and adaptation (conceding some autonomy while retaining ultimate control).

    The tennis dispute is travelling this well-worn path. Tennis’s governing bodies have denied the PTPA a seat at the table, so the PTPA is now taking the matter to court (early indications are tennis’s governing bodies will fight it vigorously).

    Predicting the outcome of litigation is fraught. However, sport governing bodies do not have a strong record defending the use of their power before the courts.

    Courts are more independent and less deferential towards sport governing bodies than the political arms of government.

    Recent decisions from the Court of Justice of the European Union offer evidence of this. It applied EU competition law to constrain the power of sport governing bodies to:

    Another example comes from the United States, where the Supreme Court struck down as an antitrust (competition) law violation, rules that limited the benefits student-athletes can receive for playing.

    This litigation led the governing body of collegiate sport, the National Collegiate Athletic Association, to propose a US$2.8 billion (A$4.45 billion) settlement that will allow colleges to pay their student-athletes.

    As for tennis, settlement of the PTPA litigation is possible, notwithstanding the current rhetoric.

    Indeed, some form of adaptation of sports’ governing bodies to accommodate the various forces and interests at play is the most likely outcome.

    Eric Windholz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Tennis pros rally for better pay and less punishing schedules, amid wider power struggles in world sport – https://theconversation.com/tennis-pros-rally-for-better-pay-and-less-punishing-schedules-amid-wider-power-struggles-in-world-sport-252721

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  • MIL-Evening Report: France’s Southern Cross regional military exercise moves to Wallis

    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

    Southern Cross, a French-hosted regional military exercise, is moving to Wallis and Futuna Islands this year.

    The exercise, which includes participating regional armed and law enforcement forces from Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Tonga every two years, is scheduled to take place April 22-May 3.

    Since its inception in 2002, the war games have traditionally been hosted in New Caledonia.

    However, New Caledonia was the scene last year of serious riots, causing 14 deaths, hundreds injured, and an estimated cost of 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4.2 billion)

    Southern Cross focuses on the notion of “interoperability” between regional forces, with a joint multinational command following a predefined but realistic scenario, usually in a fictitious island state affected by a natural disaster and/or political unrest.

    This is the first time the regional French exercise will be hosted on Wallis Island, in the French Pacific territory of Wallis and Futuna, near Fiji and Samoa.

    Earlier this month (March 3-5), the Nouméa-based French Armed Forces in New Caledonia (FANC) hosted a “Final Coordination Conference” (FCC) with its regional counterparts after a series of on-site reconnaissance visits to Wallis and Futuna Islands ahead of the Southern Cross 2025 manoeuvres.

    Humanitarian, disaster relief
    FANC also confirmed this year, again in Wallis-and-Futuna, the exercise scenario would mainly focus on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) and that it would involve, apart from the French forces, the deployment of some 19 other participating countries, with an estimated 2000 personnel, including 600 regional.

    A French Carrier Strike Group exercise Clémenceau25 deployment map of operations. Image: ALPACI-Forces armées en Asie-Pacifique et en Polynésie française

    Last week, still in preparation mode, a group of FANC officers travelled again to Wallis for three days to finalise preparations ahead of the exercise.

    In an interview with public broadcaster Wallis and Futuna la 1ère, FANC inter-army chief-of-staff Colonel Frédéric Puchois said the group of officers met local chiefly and royal authorities, as well as the Speaker of the local territorial assembly.

    In 2023, the previous Southern Cross exercise held in New Caledonia involved the participation of about 18 regional countries.

    “It’s all about activating and practising quick and efficient scenarios to respond mainly to a large-scale natural disaster,” Colonel Puchois said.

    “Southern Cross until now took place in New Caledonia, but it was decided for 2025 to choose Wallis and Futuna to work specifically on long-distance projection.

    “So, the Americans will position some of their forces in Pago-Pago in American Samoa to test their capacity to project forces from a rear base located 2000 kms away [from Wallis].

    “And for the French part, the rear base will be New Caledonia,” he added.

    Port Vila earthquake
    He said one of the latest real-life illustrations of this kind of deployment was the recent relief operation from Nouméa following Port Vila’s devastating earthquake in mid-December 2024.

    “We brought essential relief supplies, in coordination with NGOs like the Red Cross. And during Southern Cross 2025, we will again work with them and other NGOs”.

    However, Colonel Puchois said not all personnel would be deployed at the same time.

    “We will project small groups at a time. There will be several phases,” he said.

    “First to secure the airport to ensure it is fit for landing of large aircraft. This could involve parachute personnel and supplies.

    “Then assistance to the population, involving other components such as civil security, fire brigades, gendarmes. It would conclude with evacuating people in need of further assistance.

    “So we won’t project all of the 2000 participants at the same time, but groups of 250 to 300 personnel”.

    Cooperation with Vanuatu Mobile Force
    FANC Commander General Yann Latil was in Vanuatu two weeks ago, where he held meetings with Vanuatu Mobile Forces (VMF) Commander Colonel Ben Nicholson and Vanuatu Internal Affairs minister Andrew Napuat to discuss cooperation, as well as handling and maintenance of the French-supplied FAMAS rifles.

    For two weeks, two FANC instructors were in Port Vila to train a group of about 15 VMF on handling and maintenance of the FAMAS used by the island state’s paramilitary force.

    The VMF were also handed over more ammunition for the standard issue FAMAS (the French equivalent of the US-issued M-16).

    French Armed Forces Commander in New Caledonia (FANC) General Yann Latil visits Vanuatu Mobile Forces (VMF) training in French FAMAS rifles maintenance. Image: FANC Forces Armées en Nouvelle-Calédonie

    During his visit, General Latil also held talks with Vanuatu Internal Affairs Minister Andrew Napuat, who is in charge of the VMF and police.

    FANC and Vanuatu security forces are “working on a regular basis”, Vanuatu-based French Ambassador Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer said.

    The three-star general (equivalent of a lieutenant-general) flew back to Nouméa about 500 km away on March 8.

    French vessel on fishing policing mission
    At the same time, still in Vanuatu, Nouméa-based overseas support and assistance vessel (BSAOM) the D’Entrecasteaux and its crew were on a courtesy call in Luganville (Espiritu Santo island, North Vanuatu) for three days.

    After hosting local officials and school students for visits, the patrol boat embarked on a surveillance policing mission in high seas off the archipelago.

    One ni-Vanuatu officer also joined the French crew inspecting foreign fishing vessels and checking if they comply with current regulations under the Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA).

    On a regular basis, similar monitoring operations are also carried out by navies from other regional countries such as Australia and New Zealand in order to assist neighbouring Pacific States in protecting their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) from what is usually termed Illegal Unregulated and Unreported (IUU) fishing from foreign vessels.

    Last month, the D’Entrecasteaux was engaged in a series of naval exercises off Papua New Guinea.

    Further north in the Pacific, French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its strike group wrapped up an unprecedented two-month deployment in a series of multinational exercises with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam), where “one third of the world’s maritime trade transits every day”.

    This included its own Exercises Clémenceau25 and La Pérouse (with eight neighbouring forces), but also interoperability-focused manoeuvres with the US and Japan (Pacific Steller).

    “The deployment of this military capacity underlines France’s attachment to maritime and aerial freedom of action and movement on all seas and oceans of the world”, the Tahiti-based Pacific Maritime Command (ALPACI) said this week in a release.

    US Navy in Western Pacific activity
    Also in western Pacific waters, the US Navy’s activity has been intense over the past few weeks, and continues.

    The Virginia-class fast-attack submarine USS Vermont (SSN 792) returned on 18 March to Joint Base Pearl Harbour-Hickam, following a seven-month deployment, the submarine’s first deployment to the Western Pacific, the US Third Fleet command stated.

    On Friday, the USS Nimitz (CVN 68) Carrier Strike Group (NIMCSG) left Naval Base Kitsap in Bremerton, Washington, for a regularly scheduled deployment to the Western Pacific.

    The US Third Fleet command said the strike group’s deployment will focus on “demonstrating the US Navy’s unwavering commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific in which all nations are secure in their sovereignty and free from coercion”.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Silicosis is ruining the lungs of construction workers. An AI-powered breath test can detect it in minutes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Alexander Donald, Professor of Chemistry, UNSW Sydney

    Irene Miller/Shutterstock

    Silicosis is an incurable but entirely preventable lung disease. It has only one cause: breathing in too much silica dust. This is a risk in several industries, including tunnelling, stone masonry and construction.

    Just last week, ABC reported that 13 workers from tunnelling projects in Sydney have been diagnosed with silicosis. It’s yet another reminder that current diagnostic methods are limited. They often detect the disease only after the lungs already have significant damage.

    Our new study, published in the Journal of Breath Research, provides the latest results on a breath test for detecting silicosis powered by artificial intelligence (AI). It’s non-invasive and measures dozens of molecules to identify silicosis in just minutes.

    The test we’ve developed achieved over 90% accuracy in differentiating silicosis patients from healthy individuals. This is better than traditional lung function tests.

    While our test is yet to be trialled in real-world clinics, our results so far suggest breath testing could become a crucial tool in workplace health screening. Early detection would prevent suffering and disease progression, and reduce healthcare costs.

    Silicosis is a growing problem – but hard to detect

    Currently, more workers in New South Wales, elsewhere in Australia and internationally are being diagnosed with silicosis at younger ages. The Australian government has responded by banning engineered stone, but that doesn’t address ongoing risks in other industries.

    Patients with silicosis often describe a feeling like they are slowly being strangled, with every breath becoming more difficult over time. In advanced stages, silicosis can be fatal unless patients can access a lung transplant.

    The only way to stop the progression of silicosis is removing affected workers from further silica exposure. This is why diagnosing patients in the early stages – before irreversible lung damage occurs – is critical.

    However, this isn’t easy to achieve. Lung function testing and chest X-rays only identify the problem once irreversible lung damage has occurred. In some cases, patients also need CT scans and invasive biopsy to confirm diagnosis. But CT scans, although much higher resolution, also rely on visible signs of silicosis.

    And these methods are costly and take time, making it harder to easily screen the thousands of workers who could be at risk.

    This is where breath testing comes in.

    Research team members Merryn Baker (left) and Dr Laura Capasso supervise a study participant providing a breath test sample for analysis.
    Richard Freeman/UNSW

    How breath tests can detect disease

    Human breath contains hundreds of volatile organic compounds – small gas molecules that come from metabolic processes in the body, as well as the environment.

    The composition of these molecules changes in response to physiological conditions like disease. However, volatile organic compounds are often present in extremely low concentrations – we need highly sensitive technology to detect them reliably.

    Our team has developed tools that can detect volatile organic compounds at concentrations as low as parts per trillion. This is equivalent to detecting a single drop of liquid diluted in multiple Olympic-sized swimming pools.

    This level of sensitivity allows us to identify very small biochemical changes in breath. AI is key to this approach. Our machine learning model analyses breath samples to tell apart healthy individuals and those with silicosis.

    This builds on our previous work using AI to analyse blood plasma for early Parkinson’s disease detection with high accuracy and interpretability, which allows us to determine the chemical features that contribute the most to model accuracy. Interpretability refers to the ability to understand and explain how the AI model arrives at its predictions, providing insights into which data inputs are most important.

    Now, we have applied similar methods to breath analysis. Thanks to the sensitivity of our test, we could potentially detect silicosis at very early stages.

    Breath samples could be collected at scale at workplaces to monitor the health of at-risk workers.
    Richard Freeman/UNSW

    How well does it work?

    In our new study, the breath test was trialled on 31 silicosis patients and 60 healthy controls. The AI-powered model successfully distinguished silicosis cases with over 90% accuracy.

    The test takes less than five minutes per sample, making it feasible for large-scale health screening. Additionally, the test doesn’t require subjects to fast or undergo any special preparation beforehand.

    An important question in breath analysis is whether external factors, such as diet or smoking, influence test results. Our study included smokers and non-smokers in both silicosis and healthy control groups, and the test maintained high accuracy.

    Our results show great promise, but there are challenges to overcome. The test relies on highly sensitive instrumentation that, while compact (less than a cubic metre), still requires technical expertise to operate.

    The AI-powered breath test involves specialised tools to perform the analysis.
    Richard Freeman/UNSW

    Currently, breath samples are collected in clinics and transported to a lab for analysis. We hope future iterations could allow for testing in workplace settings, creating routine screening programs. Further validation in larger, diverse worker populations is also necessary before full implementation.

    The next phase of research will involve refining the AI model and expanding real-world testing to thousands of silica-exposed workers who might be at risk.

    While routine medical evaluations will still be necessary for at-risk workers, the addition of breath analysis could enable more continuous monitoring than what is currently practical. It could help detect silicosis earlier, before the symptoms become irreversible, reducing long-term health risks.


    Acknowledgements: Aruvi Thiruvarudchelvan and Jeff Gordon also contributed to this research.

    William Alexander Donald receives funding from the Australian Research Council, iCare Dust Diseases Board, Coal Services NSW Health & Safety Trust, US National Institutes of Health and several industry research contracts. He is an advisor to Preview Health and Mass Affinity. He is president of the Australian & New Zealand Society for Mass Spectrometry.

    Deborah Yates is an occupational respiratory physician and a director of Thomas-Yates Pty Ltd, a medical services company, and an expert advisor to the Asbestos & Dust Diseases Research Institute, Concord, NSW. She is an independent director of the board of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians, a global advisor to the Royal College of Physicians of London, independent member of the NSW Mine Safety Advisory Council and Councillor to the Australian Society of Salaried Medical Officers (ASMOF) of NSW, the doctors’ union. She acts also as an advisor to Tuberous Sclerosis Australia and LAM Australasia. She receives no funding for any of these roles. She has recently received funding for investigator-initiated grants from Boehringer Ingelheim and iCare NSW as well as the Coal Services Trust, and has previously participated in several industry initiated research studies into asthma and chronic cough. She is a member of the iCare Medical Advisory Panel. She has in the past acted in an advisory capacity and given paid lectures for Glaxo Smith Klein, Astra Zeneca and Boehringer Ingelheim. She has no shares in mining companies or pharmaceutical companies and is not a member of any political parties.

    Merryn Baker’s PhD research was funded by UNSW through the Scientia Scheme.

    ref. Silicosis is ruining the lungs of construction workers. An AI-powered breath test can detect it in minutes – https://theconversation.com/silicosis-is-ruining-the-lungs-of-construction-workers-an-ai-powered-breath-test-can-detect-it-in-minutes-252640

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is hyaluronic acid – and is it OK for kids and teens to use this common skincare ingredient?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zoe Porter, Lecturer, Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Science, Monash University

    Sabinayro/Shutterstock

    Earlier this month, Kmart pulled a “hyaluronic acid cleansing balm” from its shelves, after a teen who used the skincare product was hospitalised, reporting eye pain and blurred vision. It’s unclear what ingredient caused this reaction.

    In a statement, Kmart said it was removing the product while conducting an investigation. The retailer also said:

    We want to assure our customers that our cosmetics are designed to ensure that they comply with both Australian and European requirements on ingredients.

    Hyaluronic acid – despite the name – is a gentle ingredient commonly used in skincare products.

    But what does hyaluronic acid do to your skin as a skincare ingredient? And is it safe for tweens and teens?

    What is hyaluronic acid?

    Hyaluronic acid is a glycosaminoglycan – a sugar-based molecule found naturally in the skin, eyes, joint fluid and connective tissue.

    It plays a key role in hydrating the skin and tissues, lubricating our joints and supporting tissue repair.

    Beyond cosmetics, hyaluronic acid is used in drug delivery, regenerative medicine, wound repair, and to treat conditions such as atherosclerosis (where the arterial walls harden and narrow) and osteoarthritis (a degenerative joint disease).

    It is also a key ingredient in many eye drops and contact lens care solutions.

    How is it used in skincare?

    While the word “acid” might suggest it is harsh and potentially damaging to the skin, hyaluronic acid is not used in its acidic form in skincare products. It is usually used in its salt form, sodium hyaluronate.

    In skincare, active acids such as salicylic acid usually lower the skin’s pH and exfoliate it by breaking the bonds between dead skin cells.

    Hyaluronic acid, in contrast, is used to hydrate the skin. It is a humectant, an ingredient that attracts and retains water molecules.

    Hyaluronic acid has three qualities that make it suitable for skincare: it’s soluble (can be dissolved in water), biocompatible (meaning it’s not harmful to the body), and biodegradable (naturally breaks down into non-toxic, simpler substances).

    It is usually safe and well-tolerated, meaning it has very few side effects.

    In skincare products, hyaluronic is used in different forms. Smaller hyaluronic molecules can penetrate deeper into the skin and hydrate the lower levels. In products this is often advertised as “anti-ageing”, because it stimulates the production of collagen (a structural protein in the skin), and helps to improve elasticity and reduce the appearance of fine lines.

    Larger hyaluronic acid molecules remain on the skin’s surface and have an immediate hydrating effect, preventing water evaporation from the skin.

    Hyaluronic acid helps the skin attract and retain water molecules for hydration.
    Art_Photo/Shutterstock

    Any risks?

    Hyaluronic acid is generally a safe ingredient, even for sensitive skin. But products advertised as “hyaluronic acid skincare” may contain other ingredients which can cause irritation.

    In particular, fragrances, preservatives and surfactants (ingredients that produce foam and help wash away oil and dirt) may be safe for skin but burn or otherwise irritate the eyes.

    This is because the cornea and conjuctiva (the thin membrane covering the eye) are much more sensitive than the skin.

    How are skincare ingredients regulated?

    Unlike medicines and products used for therapeutic reasons, which are regulated by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), general cosmetic products do not require pre-market safety testing or approval.

    Instead, companies need to register their business with the Australian Industrial Chemicals Introduction Scheme and verify that their ingredients are not banned or restricted in Australia.

    This creates a potential gap where defective products remain on the market, only to be recalled after adverse reactions occur.

    Are these products appropriate for children?

    Most scientific research on active ingredients – including hyaluronic acid – has been evaluated in older populations. This leaves a gap in understanding how they affect teen and preteen skin.

    Many products are designed for ageing and/or specific skin types, and are largely unnecessary for children and younger people.

    In some cases, they can potentially be harmful to their skin. For example, unless prescribed by a dermatologist, it’s advisable for young people to avoid retinoid products (containing retinol or retinal) as they can cause redness, peeling and drying.

    Similarly, products with alpha hydroxy acids can cause irritation, itching, redness and may worsen acne in young skin.

    So, what should younger people look for?

    Preteens and teens should avoid products containing active ingredients such as retinol, vitamin C, alpha- and beta- hydroxy acids, and peptides, as well as those labelled with terms such as anti-ageing, wrinkle-reducing, brightening, or firming.

    To keep skin clean and protected, teenagers can use a good cleanser, a simple moisturiser and a broad spectrum SPF 30 or 50 sunscreen.

    It’s best to opt for gentle, fragrance-free cleansers and moisturisers suitable for all skin types. Consulting with a pharmacist can provide personalised recommendations based on individual skin needs.

    Laurence Orlando is a council member with the Australian Society of Cosmetic Chemists.

    Zoe Porter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. What is hyaluronic acid – and is it OK for kids and teens to use this common skincare ingredient? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-hyaluronic-acid-and-is-it-ok-for-kids-and-teens-to-use-this-common-skincare-ingredient-252296

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Giving rivers room to move: how rethinking flood management can benefit people and nature

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina McCabe, PhD Candidate in Interdisciplinary Ecology, University of Canterbury

    Shutterstock/S Watson

    When we think about flood management, higher stop banks, stronger levees and concrete barriers usually come to mind. But what if the best solution – for people and nature – isn’t to confine rivers, but to give them more space?

    This alternative is increasingly being considered as an approach to mitigating flood risk. But allowing rivers room to move also delivers ecological benefits far beyond flood risk reduction. It supports biodiversity, improves water quality and stores carbon.

    As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme floods, rethinking our approach to managing floodplain rivers has never been more urgent.

    Climate change, floods and river confinement

    Climate change is amplifying flood risks worldwide, and Aotearoa New Zealand is no exception. Large floods are expected to become much more frequent and severe, threatening communities, infrastructure and ecosystems.

    Many of these risks are made worse by past management decisions that have artificially confined rivers within narrow channels, cutting them off from their natural floodplains.

    Floodplain river systems have historically been dynamic, shifting across landscapes over time. But extensive stop banks, modification of river channels and land development have restricted this natural variability.

    Strangling rivers in this way transfers and heightens flood risks downstream by forcing water through confined channels at greater speeds. It also degrades ecosystems that rely on the natural ebb and flow of river processes.

    The Waiau River, a gravel-bed braided river in the South Island, has been constrained by land development, primarily for agriculture.
    Background satellite image: Google (c) 2025 Airbus, CC BY-SA

    Giving rivers space to roam

    The idea of allowing rivers to reclaim space on their floodplains is not new.

    In the Netherlands, the Room for the River programme was a response to flooding in 1995 that led to large-scale evacuations of people and cattle. In England, predictions that economic risks associated with flooding will increase 20-fold within this century ignited the Making Space for Water strategy.

    However, these initiatives typically remain focused on flood protection, overlooking opportunities to maximise ecological benefits. Our new research shows that well-designed approaches can deliver ecological gains alongside flood protection.

    This is crucial because floodplain river systems are among the most valuable ecosystems. They provide about a quarter of all land-based ecosystem services such as water retention and pollutant filtration, as well as educational, recreational and cultural benefits.

    Managing rivers for variability

    A fundamental shift in river management involves acknowledging and accommodating natural variability. Floodplain rivers are not static: they change across landscapes and through time, responding to seasonal flows, sediment movement and ecological processes.

    Braided rivers are an example of floodplain rivers that have natural variability and diverse habitat types.
    Angus McIntosh, CC BY-SA

    Our research synthesises the ecological processes that are enabled when floodplain rivers have room to move.

    Rivers that are not unnaturally confined are typically more physically complex. For instance, along with the main river channel, they might have smaller side channels, or areas where the water pools and slows, springs popping up from below ground to re-join the surface waters, or ponds on the floodplain.

    A diverse range of habitats supports a rich variety of plant and animal life. Even exposed gravel, made available in rivers that flow freely, provides critical nesting sites for endangered birds.

    Biodiversity is not one-dimensional. Instead, it exists and operates at multiple scales, from a small floodplain pond to a whole river catchment or wider. In a dynamic, ever-changing riverscape, we might find the genetic composition of a species varying in different parts of the river, or the same species of fish varying in their body size, depending on the habitat conditions.

    These examples of natural biological variability enable species and ecosystems to be resilient in the face of uncertain future conditions.

    Rivers that have room to move on their floodplains are highly dynamic. This diagram shows the main types of ecological variability in a free-flowing river: physical variability, habitat heterogeneity and variable ecosystem processes.
    Adapted from McCabe et al. 2025 Nature Water, CC BY-SA

    At a larger scale, the type and number of species that live in different floodplain river habitats also varies. This diversity of biological communities produces variation in the functions ecosystems perform across the river, such as the uptake of nutrients or processing of organic matter. This can even help to diversify food webs.

    These variations mean not all species or groups of species in the river will be vulnerable to the same disturbances – such as droughts or floods – at the same time. This is because plants and animals in rivers have evolved to take advantage of long-term rhythms of floods and droughts in different ways.

    For instance, the cottonwood poplars of the southwest United States time their seed release with the highly predictable rhythms of snowmelt-driven spring floods in that part of the world. In Aotearoa New Zealand, whitebait fish species typically deposit their eggs during high autumn flows, which then get transported to sea as larvae during high winter flows.

    Some animals need multiple habitats within the river for different stages of life. Other creatures travel from afar to use river floodplains for only a short time. The latter includes the banded dotterel (Charadrius bicinctus), endemic to Aotearoa New Zealand. This bird travels as far as 1,700km to nest on braided-river gravels each spring. Banded dotterels are in decline, and they rely on habitats provided by rivers that have space to roam.

    The endangered black-fronted tern (Chlidonias albostriatus) uses gravel bar habitats on river floodplains for nesting.
    Angus McIntosh, CC BY-SA

    A call for more sustainable river management

    As climate change accelerates, we must rethink how we manage our waterways. Reinforcing levees and deepening channels may seem like logical responses to increased flood risk, but these approaches often exacerbate long-term vulnerabilities and transfer risk elsewhere.

    We call for practitioners to broaden the scope of values included in river management policy and programmes to include ecological variability.

    Nature-based solutions are approaches that seek to benefit both people and nature. By working with nature rather than against it, we can create landscapes that are more resilient, adaptive, and supportive of both people and biodiversity.

    It’s time to embrace a new paradigm for river management – one that sees rivers not as threats to be controlled, but as lifelines to be protected and restored.

    Christina McCabe receives funding through an Aho Hīnātore doctoral research scholarship at the University of Canterbury.

    Jonathan Tonkin receives funding from a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship and the Centre of Research Excellence Te Pūnaha Matatini. He also receives funding from the Antarctic Science Platform and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.

    ref. Giving rivers room to move: how rethinking flood management can benefit people and nature – https://theconversation.com/giving-rivers-room-to-move-how-rethinking-flood-management-can-benefit-people-and-nature-251225

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Former Filipino president Duterte’s arrest by the ICC – 20 journalists killed during his presidency

    Pacific Media Watch

    Paris-based global media freedom watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has recalled that 20 journalists were killed during the six-year Philippines presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, a regime marked by fierce repression of the press.

    Former president Duterte was arrested earlier this week as part of an International Criminal Court investigation into crimes against humanity linked to his merciless war on drugs. He is now in The Hague awaiting trial.

    The watchdog has called on the administration of current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to take strong measures to fully restore the country’s press freedom and combat impunity for the crimes against media committed by Duterte’s regime.

    “Just because you’re a journalist you are not exempted from assassination, if you’re a son of a bitch,” Rodrigo Duterte said in his inauguration speech on 30 June 2016, which set the tone for the rest of his mandate — unrestrained violence against journalists and total disregard for press freedom, said RSF in a statement.

    During the Duterte regime’s rule, RSF recorded 20 cases of journalists killed while working.

    Among them was Jesus Yutrago Malabanan, shot dead after covering Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war for Reuters.

    Online harassment surged, particularly targeting women journalists.

    Maria Ressa troll target
    The most prominent victim was Maria Ressa, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and founder of the news site Rappler, who faced an orchestrated hate campaign led by troll armies allied with the government in response to her commitment to exposing the then-president’s bloody war.

    Media outlets critical of President Duterte’s authoritarian excesses were systematically muzzled: the country’s leading television network, ABS-CBN, was forced to shut down; Rappler and Maria Ressa faced repeated lawsuits; and a businessman close to the president took over the country’s leading newspaper, the Philippine Daily Inquirer, raising concerns over its editorial independence.

    “The arrest of Rodrigo Duterte is good news for the Filipino journalism community, who were the direct targets of his campaign of terror,” said RSF’s Asia-Pacific bureau director Cédric Alviani.

    RSF’s Asia-Pacific bureau director Cédric Alviani . . . “the Filipino journalism community were the direct targets of [former president Rodrigo Duterte]’s campaign of terror.” Image: RSF

    “President Marcos and his administration must immediately investigate Duterte’s past crimes and take strong measures to fully restore the country’s press freedom.”

    The repression carried out during Duterte’s tenure continues to impact on Filipino journalism: investigative journalist Frenchie Mae Cumpio has been languishing in prison since her arrest in 2020, still awaiting a verdict in her trial for “financing terrorism” and “illegal possession of firearms” — trumped-up charges that could see her sentenced to 40 years in prison.

    With 147 journalists murdered since the restoration of democracy in 1986, the Philippines remains one of the deadliest countries for media workers.

    The republic ranked 134th out of 180 in the 2024 RSF World Press Freedom Index.

    Source report from Reporters Without Borders. Pacific Media Watch collaborates with RSF.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pro-Palestinian protesters challenge NZ’s Winston Peters at state of the nation speech

    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific.

    Like a relentless ocean, wave after wave of pro-Palestinian pro-human rights protesters disrupted New Zealand deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters’ state of the nation speech at the Christchurch Town Hall yesterday.

    A clarion call to Trumpism and Australia’s One Nation Party, the speech was accompanied by the background music of about 250 protesters outside the Town Hall, chanting: “Complicity in genocide is a crime.”

    Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) co-chair John Minto described Peters’ attitude to Palestinians as “sickening”.

    Inside the James Hay Theatre, protester after protester stood and spoke loudly and clearly against the deputy Prime Minister’s failure to support those still dying in Gaza, and his failure to denounce the ongoing genocide.

    Ben Vorderegger was the first of nine protesters who appealed on behalf of people who have lost their voices in the dust of blood and bones, bombs and sniper guns.

    Before he and others were hauled out, they spoke for the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza — women, men, doctors, aid workers, journalists, and children.

    Gazan health authorities have reported that the official death toll is now more than 50,000 — but that is the confirmed deaths with thousands more buried under the rubble.


    The Christchurch Town Hall protest.            Video:PSNA

    Real death toll
    The real death toll from the genocide in Gaza has been estimated by a reputed medical journal, The Lancet, at more than 63,000. A third of those are children. Each day more children are killed.

    One by one the protesters who challenged Peters were manhandled by security guards to a frenzied crowd screaming “out, out”.

    The deputy Prime Minister’s response was to deride and mock the conscientious objectors. He did not stop there. He lambasted the media.

    At this point, several members of his audience turned on me as a journalist and demanded my removal.

    Pro=Palestine protesters at the Christchurch Town Hall yesterday to picket Foreign Minister Winston Peters at his state of the nation speech.Image: Saige England/APR

    This means that not only is the right to free speech at stake, the right or freedom to report is also being eroded. (I was later trespassed by security guards and police from the Town Hall although no reason was supplied for the ban).

    Inside the Christchurch Town Hall the call by Peters, who is also Foreign Minister, to “Make New Zealand Great Again” continued in the vein of a speech written by a MAGA leader.

    He whitewashed human rights, failed to address climate change, and demonstrated loathing for a media that has rarely challenged him.

    Ben Vorderegger in keffiyeh was the first of nine protesters who appealed on behalf of Palestinans before
    being thrown out of the Christchurch Town Hall meeting. Image: Saige England/APR

    Condemned movement
    Slamming the PSNA as “Marxist fascists” for calling out genocide, he condemned the movement for failing to talk with those who have a record of kowtowing to violent colonisation.

    This tactic is Colonial Invasion 101. It sees the invader rewarding and only dealing with those who sell out. This strategy demands that the colonised people should bow to the oppressor — an oppressor who threatens them with losing everything if they do not accept the scraps.

    Peters showed no support for the Treaty of Waitangi but rather, endorsed the government’s challenge to the founding document of the nation – Te Tiriti o Waitangi. In his dismissal of the founding and legally binding partnership, he repeated the “One Nation” catch-cry. Ad nauseum.

    Besides slamming Palestinians, the Scots (he managed to squeeze in a racist joke against Scottish people), and the woke, Peters’ speech promoted continued mining, showing some amnesia over the Pike River disaster. He did not reference the environment or climate change.

    After the speech, outside the Town Hall police donned black gloves — a sign they were prepared to use pepper-spray.

    PSNA co-chair John Minto described Peters’ failure to stand against the ongoing genocide of Palestinians as “bloody disgraceful”.

    The police arrested one protester, claiming he put his hand on a car transporting NZ First officials. A witness said this was not the case.

    PSNA co-chair John Minto (in hat behind fellow protester) . . . the failure of Foreign Minister Winston Peters to stand against the ongoing genocide of Palestinians is “bloody disgraceful”. Image; Saige England/APR

    Protester released
    The protester was later released without any charges being laid.

    A defiant New Zealand First MP Shane Jones marched out of the Town Hall after the event. He raised his arms defensively at protesters crying, “what if it was your grandchildren being slaughtered?”

    I was trespassed from the Christchurch Town Hall for re-entering the Town Hall for Winston Peters’ media conference. No reason was supplied by police or the Town Hall security personnel for that trespass order..

    “The words Winston is terrified to say . . . ” poster at the Christchurch pro-Palestinian protest. Image: Saige England/APR

    It is well known that Peters loathes the media — he said so enough times during his state of the nation speech.

    He referenced former US President Bill Clinton during his speech, an interesting reference given that Clinton did not receive the protection from the media that Peters has received.

    From the over zealous security personnel who manhandled and dragged out hecklers, to the banning of a journalist, to the arrest of someone for “touching a car” when witnesses report otherwise, the state of the nation speech held some uncomfortable echoes — the actions of a fascist dictatorship.

    Populist threats
    The atmosphere was reminiscent of a Jorg Haider press conference I attended many years ago in Vienna. That “rechtspopulist” Austrian politician had threatened journalists with defamation suits if they called him out on his support for Nazis.

    Yet he was on record for doing so.

    I was reminded of this yesterday when the audience called ‘out out’ at hecklers, and demanded the removal of this journalist. These New Zealand First supporters demand adoration for their leader or a media black-out.

    Perhaps they cannot be blamed given that the state of the nation speech could well have been written by US President Donald Trump or one of his minions.

    The protesters were courageous and conscientious in contrast to Peters, said PSNA’s John Minto.

    He likened Peters to Neville Chamberlain — Britain’s Prime Minister from 1937 to 1940. His name is synonymous with the policy of “appeasement” because he conceded territorial concessions to Nazi Germany in the late 1930s, fruitlessly hoping to avoid war.

    “He has refused to condemn any of Israel’s war crimes against Palestinians, including the total humanitarian aid blockade of Gaza.”

    Refusal ‘unprecedented’
    “It’s unprecedented in New Zealand history that a government would refuse to condemn Israel breaking its ceasefire agreement and resuming industrial-scale slaughter of civilians,” Minto said.

    “That is what Israel is doing today in Gaza, with full backing from the White House.

    “Chamberlain went to meet Hitler in Munich in 1938 to whitewash Nazi Germany’s takeovers of its neighbours’ lands.

    “Peters has been in Washington to agree to US approval of the occupation of southern Syria, more attacks on Lebanon, resumption of the land grab genocide in Gaza and get a heads-up on US plans to ‘give’ the Occupied West Bank to Israel later this year.

    “If Peters disagrees with any of this, he’s had plenty of chances to say so.

    “New Zealanders are calling for sanctions on Israel but Mr Peters and the National-led government are looking the other way.”

    New Zealand First MP Shane Jones marched out of the Town Hall after the event, dismissing protesters crying, “what if it was your grandchildren being slaughtered?” Image: Saige England/APR

    Only staged questions
    The conscientious objectors who rise against the oppression of human rights are people Winston Peters regards as his enemies. He will only answer questions in a press conference staged for him.

    He warms to journalists who warm to him.

    The state of the nation speech in the Town Hall was familiar.

    Seeking to erase conscientiousness will not make New Zealand great, it will render this country very small, almost miniscule, like the people who are being destroyed for daring to demand their right to their own land.

    Saige England is a journalist and author, and a member of the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA). She is a frequent contributor to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific.

    Part of the crowd at the state of the nation speech by Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters at the Christchurch Town Hall yesterday. Image: Saige England/APR

    This article was first published on Café Pacific.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pro-Palestinian protesters challenge Peters at state of the nation speech

    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Christchurch

    Like a relentless ocean, wave after wave of pro-Palestinian pro-human rights protesters disrupted New Zealand deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters’ state of the nation speech at the Christchurch Town Hall yesterday.

    A clarion call to Trumpism and Australia’s One Nation Party, the speech was accompanied by the background music of about 250 protesters outside the Town Hall, chanting: “Complicity in genocide is a crime.”

    Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) co-chair John Minto described Peters’ attitude to Palestinians as “sickening”.

    Inside the James Hay Theatre, protester after protester stood and spoke loudly and clearly against the deputy Prime Minister’s failure to support those still dying in Gaza, and his failure to denounce the ongoing genocide.

    Ben Vorderegger was the first of nine protesters who appealed on behalf of people who have lost their voices in the dust of blood and bones, bombs and sniper guns.

    Before he and others were hauled out, they spoke for the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza — women, men, doctors, aid workers, journalists, and children.

    Gazan health authorities have reported that the official death toll is now more than 50,000 — but that is the confirmed deaths with thousands more buried under the rubble.

    Real death toll
    The real death toll from the genocide in Gaza has been estimated by a reputed medical journal, The Lancet, at more than 63,000. A third of those are children. Each day more children are killed.

    One by one the protesters who challenged Peters were manhandled by security guards to a frenzied crowd screaming “out, out”.

    The deputy Prime Minister’s response was to deride and mock the conscientious objectors. He did not stop there. He lambasted the media.

    At this point, several members of his audience turned on me as a journalist and demanded my removal.

    Pro-Palestine protesters at the Christchurch Town Hall yesterday to picket Foreign Minister Winston Peters at his state of the nation speech. Image: Saige England/APR

    This means that not only is the right to free speech at stake, the right or freedom to report is also being eroded. (I was later trespassed by security guards and police from the Town Hall although no reason was supplied for the ban).

    Inside the Christchurch Town Hall the call by Peters, who is also Foreign Minister, to “Make New Zealand Great Again” continued in the vein of a speech written by a MAGA leader.

    He whitewashed human rights, failed to address climate change, and demonstrated loathing for a media that has rarely challenged him.

    Ben Vorderegger in keffiyeh was the first of nine protesters who appealed on behalf of Palestinans before
    being thrown out of the Christchurch Town Hall meeting. Image: Saige England/APR

    Condemned movement
    Slamming the PSNA as “Marxist fascists” for calling out genocide, he condemned the movement for failing to talk with those who have a record of kowtowing to violent colonisation.

    This tactic is Colonial Invasion 101. It sees the invader rewarding and only dealing with those who sell out. This strategy demands that the colonised people should bow to the oppressor — an oppressor who threatens them with losing everything if they do not accept the scraps.

    Peters showed no support for the Treaty of Waitangi but rather, endorsed the government’s challenge to the founding document of the nation – Te Tiriti o Waitangi. In his dismissal of the founding and legally binding partnership, he repeated the “One Nation” catch-cry. Ad nauseum.

    Besides slamming Palestinians, the Scots (he managed to squeeze in a racist joke against Scottish people), and the woke, Peters’ speech promoted continued mining, showing some amnesia over the Pike River disaster. He did not reference the environment or climate change.

    After the speech, outside the Town Hall police donned black gloves — a sign they were prepared to use pepper-spray.

    PSNA co-chair John Minto described Peters’ failure to stand against the ongoing genocide of Palestinians as “bloody disgraceful”.

    The police arrested one protester, claiming he put his hand on a car transporting NZ First officials. A witness said this was not the case.

    PSNA co-chair John Minto (in hat behind fellow protester) . . . the failure of Foreign Minister Winston Peters to stand against the ongoing genocide of Palestinians is “bloody disgraceful”. Image; Saige England/APR

    Protester released
    The protester was later released without any charges being laid.

    A defiant New Zealand First MP Shane Jones marched out of the Town Hall after the event. He raised his arms defensively at protesters crying, “what if it was your grandchildren being slaughtered?”

    I was trespassed from the Christchurch Town Hall for re-entering the Town Hall for Winston Peters’ media conference. No reason was supplied by police or the Town Hall security personnel for that trespass order..

    “The words Winston is terrified to say . . . ” poster at the Christchurch pro-Palestinian protest. Image: Saige England/APR

    It is well known that Peters loathes the media — he said so enough times during his state of the nation speech.

    He referenced former US President Bill Clinton during his speech, an interesting reference given that Clinton did not receive the protection from the media that Peters has received.

    From the over zealous security personnel who manhandled and dragged out hecklers, to the banning of a journalist, to the arrest of someone for “touching a car” when witnesses report otherwise, the state of the nation speech held some uncomfortable echoes — the actions of a fascist dictatorship.

    Populist threats
    The atmosphere was reminiscent of a Jorg Haider press conference I attended many years ago in Vienna. That “rechtspopulist” Austrian politician had threatened journalists with defamation suits if they called him out on his support for Nazis.

    Yet he was on record for doing so.

    I was reminded of this yesterday when the audience called ‘out out’ at hecklers, and demanded the removal of this journalist. These New Zealand First supporters demand adoration for their leader or a media black-out.

    Perhaps they cannot be blamed given that the state of the nation speech could well have been written by US President Donald Trump or one of his minions.

    The protesters were courageous and conscientious in contrast to Peters, said PSNA’s John Minto.

    He likened Peters to Neville Chamberlain — Britain’s Prime Minister from 1937 to 1940. His name is synonymous with the policy of “appeasement” because he conceded territorial concessions to Nazi Germany in the late 1930s, fruitlessly hoping to avoid war.

    “He has refused to condemn any of Israel’s war crimes against Palestinians, including the total humanitarian aid blockade of Gaza.”

    Refusal ‘unprecedented’
    “It’s unprecedented in New Zealand history that a government would refuse to condemn Israel breaking its ceasefire agreement and resuming industrial-scale slaughter of civilians,” Minto said.

    “That is what Israel is doing today in Gaza, with full backing from the White House.

    “Chamberlain went to meet Hitler in Munich in 1938 to whitewash Nazi Germany’s takeovers of its neighbours’ lands.

    “Peters has been in Washington to agree to US approval of the occupation of southern Syria, more attacks on Lebanon, resumption of the land grab genocide in Gaza and get a heads-up on US plans to ‘give’ the Occupied West Bank to Israel later this year.

    “If Peters disagrees with any of this, he’s had plenty of chances to say so.

    “New Zealanders are calling for sanctions on Israel but Mr Peters and the National-led government are looking the other way.”

    New Zealand First MP Shane Jones marched out of the Town Hall after the event, dismissing protesters crying, “what if it was your grandchildren being slaughtered?” Image: Saige England/APR

    Only staged questions
    The conscientious objectors who rise against the oppression of human rights are people Winston Peters regards as his enemies. He will only answer questions in a press conference staged for him.

    He warms to journalists who warm to him.

    The state of the nation speech in the Town Hall was familiar.

    Seeking to erase conscientiousness will not make New Zealand great, it will render this country very small, almost miniscule, like the people who are being destroyed for daring to demand their right to their own land.

    Saige England is a journalist and author, and a member of the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA). She is a frequent contributor to Asia Pacific Report.

    Part of the crowd at the state of the nation speech by Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters at the Christchurch Town Hall yesterday. Image: Saige England/APR

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor gains big lead in a Morgan poll, but drops back in YouGov

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A national Morgan poll, conducted March 10–16 from a sample of 2,097, gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a three-point gain for Labor since the March 3–9 Morgan poll. This is Labor’s largest lead in a Morgan poll since August 2023.

    Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down three), 32.5% Labor (up 2.5), 13.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (steady), 10.5% independents (steady) and 4.5% others (up 0.5). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 2.5-point gain for Labor.

    By 50.5–35, respondents thought the country was going in the wrong direction (51.5–33 previously). However, Morgan’s consumer confidence index slid 3.1 points to 83.8, its lowest this year.

    Voters were blaming Donald Trump for the stock market falls, and this was hurting the Coalition. The stock market had a better week last week, but Trump is likely to impose more tariffs on April 2.

    Morgan is a volatile poll that reacts more to news events than other polls. This poll was taken in the week Trump imposed his steel and aluminium tariffs on Australia. It’s likely that this poll is a pro-Labor outlier, with other polls not giving Labor big leads. Here is the poll graph.

    The ABC’s Patricia Karvelas wrote on March 17 that a Talbot Mills poll, conducted March 6–12 from a sample of 1,051, asked about Trump’s ratings with Australians for his performance as US president.

    Trump was down six points since February to net -14 approval (51% disapprove, 37% approve). There was a six-point increase in strongly disapprove to 40%, with strongly approve down one to 15%. By 65–22, respondents disapproved of the US imposing tariffs on Australia.

    Coalition gains in YouGov poll for a 50–50 tie

    A national YouGov poll, conducted March 14–19 from a sample of 1,500, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the March 7–13 YouGov poll.

    Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 7% One Nation (down 0.5), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 8% independents (down one) and 3% others (up one). YouGov is using weaker preference flows for Labor than occurred in 2022, and this poll would give Labor about a 51.5–48.5 lead by 2022 flows.

    Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -9, with 50% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval was up one point to -5. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–40 (45–39 previously).

    Essential poll tied at 47–47 but Albanese’s ratings jump

    A national Essential poll, conducted March 12–16 from a larger than normal sample of 2,256, had a 47–47 tie including undecided by respondent preferences (48–47 to the Coalition in early March).

    Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 8% One Nation (steady), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady compared with UAP), 9% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (up one). By 2022 preference flows, this poll would give Labor about a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

    Albanese’s net approval jumped nine points to +1, with 46% approving and 45% disapproving. This is Albanese’s first positive net approval in Essential since October 2023. Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -5, his worst since January 2024.

    By 48–35, respondents thought Australia was on the wrong track (49–34 previously).

    On climate change, 54% (down five since October 2021) said “climate change is happening and is caused by human activity”, while 35% (up five) thought “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”. This is the lowest lead for human activity in Essential’s graph which goes back to 2016.

    On addressing climate change, 35% (up two since November) thought Australia is not doing enough, 34% (down three) doing enough and 19% (steady) doing too much.

    By 39–30, voters opposed the Coalition’s policy of removing working from home provisions for public service workers. By 39–33, voters opposed Australia sending troops to Ukraine.

    By 53–33, voters thought Trump’s presidency would have a negative impact on the US economy, by 62–24 negative for the global economy and by 61–20 negative for the Australian economy.

    Labor gains lead in a Redbridge poll

    A national Redbridge poll, conducted March 3–11 from a sample of 2,007, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the previous Redbridge poll in early February. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down three), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (up one) and 19% for all Others (up one).

    By 51–29, respondents thought things were headed in the wrong direction (49–32 in November 2024).

    There has been more criticism of AUKUS from the left since Trump’s election, but by 51–19 respondents said AUKUS makes Australia safer (49–19 in July 2024). There was pro-AUKUS movement on other questions.

    Polls in Greens target seats

    The Poll Bludger reported last Tuesday on polls of seats either held by the Greens or plausible targets for them. These polls were taken by Insightfully for the right-wing Advance, and first reported by the News Corp tabloids. Sample sizes were 600 per seat with no fieldwork dates provided. Seat polls are unreliable.

    The Greens hold three Queensland federal seats (Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane), and one Victorian seat (Melbourne). On the primary votes provided, the Greens would retain Griffith, Ryan would be line-ball between the Greens and Liberal National Party. Brisbane would be gained by Labor.

    In Victoria, the Greens would hold Melbourne and gain Macnamara from Labor, while Labor would retain Wills against a Greens challenge.

    Unemployment steady despite jobs fall

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported last Thursday that the unemployment rate was 4.1% in February, unchanged from January. This was despite a 52,800 decrease in jobs that didn’t affect unemployment owing to a lower participation rate.

    The employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Australians that are employed) was down 0.3% since a record high in January to 64.1%.

    WA election final lower house seats

    At the March 8 Western Australian election, Labor won 46 of the 59 lower house seats (down seven from the record landslide in 2021), the Liberals seven (up five) and the Nationals six (up two). Comparing this election with 2017, which was a big win for Labor, Labor is up five seats, the Liberals down six and the Nationals up one.

    In 2017, Labor won 69.5% of lower house seats, in 2021 90% and in 2025 78%. If the WA lower house had as many seats as the federal House of Representatives (150), Labor would have won over 100 seats in all three elections.

    In the upper house, 75.7% of enrolled voters has been counted, compared with 82.7% in the lower house. On current figures, Labor is likely to win 16 of the 37 seats, the Liberals ten, the Greens four, the Nationals two, and One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians one each.

    Two seats are unclear, with an independent group (0.47 quotas) and Animal Justice (0.45) just ahead of One Nation’s second candidate (0.40). As the count has progressed, the Liberals have dropped and the Greens have risen. ABC election analyst Antony Green said the inclusion of below the line votes could put Labor’s 16th seat in doubt, with the Greens possibly winning five seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Labor gains big lead in a Morgan poll, but drops back in YouGov – https://theconversation.com/labor-gains-big-lead-in-a-morgan-poll-but-drops-back-in-yougov-252380

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  • MIL-Evening Report: I was a music AI sceptic – until I actually used it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Weaver, Associate Lecturer in Music Technology, University of Sydney

    Shutterstock

    With artificial intelligence programs that can now generate entire songs on demand, you’d be forgiven for thinking AI might eventually lead to the decline of human-made music.

    But AI can still be used ethically to help human musicians challenge themselves and grow their music-making abilities. I should know. As a composer and music educator, I was an AI sceptic until I started working with the technology.

    Two sides of the argument

    If you can write a text prompt, you can use AI to create a track in any genre, for almost any musical application.

    Besides generating full tracks, music AI can be used in sound analysis, noise removal, mixing and mastering, and to create entire sound palettes (such as for use in video games and podcasts). Suno, Beatoven, AIVA, Soundraw and Udio are some of the companies currently leading in the AI music space.

    In many cases, the outputs don’t have to be excellent, they just have to be good enough, and they can undercut the services of real musicians and sound designers.

    The music industry is understandably concerned. In April 2024, the US-based Artist Rights Alliance published an open letter, signed by more than 200 artists, calling for developers to stop training their AIs with copyrighted work (as this would allow companies to emulate artists’ music and image, and therefore deplete the royalties paid to artists).

    At the same time, music AI companies claim to lower the barrier to making music, such as by removing the need for physical equipment and traditional music education.

    In an interview from January, Suno’s chief executive Mikey Shulman said:

    it’s not really enjoyable to make music now. It takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of practice […] the majority of people don’t enjoy the majority of the time they spend making music.

    This is far from the message I want to send my students. However, it does unfortunately reflect the increasing pressure musicians feel to master their craft as soon as possible, in an increasingly fast-paced world that’s geared towards an intangible end goal, rather than enjoying the process of making mistakes and learning.

    From a sceptic to a reluctant advocate

    In 2023, I was commissioned by the Sydney Opera House create a new work with Sydney-based design company Kopi Su, and to develop a new generative music AI tool in the process. This tool, called Koup Music, is now in beta testing.

    I accepted the opportunity – but with quite a few hesitations, as I wasn’t really interested in working with AI. Would this be a huge waste of time, or end with my data added to some mysterious AI data pool? Or would it open up new creative directions for me?

    The tool was based on a text-to-image diffusion model called Riffusion. It takes a text prompt and generates a spectrogram, which is a visual representation of the various frequencies in an audio signal as they change through time. This is then converted to audio.

    First, I would upload my own recorded sample to the AI, and then choose a text prompt to transform it into a new five-second sample.

    For example, I could upload a short vocal melody and ask the AI to turn it into an insect, or re-contextualise it for a “hip hop” style. Sometimes the generated samples sounded very similar to my own voice (due to the vocals I uploaded).

    The following insect voice output became the subject of the musical piece below it.

    Somewhere between a voice and an insect.
    ·

    At the time of the project, the outputs could only be 5 or 10 seconds long – not long enough to make a full track. I considered this a positive, as it meant I had to incorporate the samples into my own larger work.

    Some samples were catchy. Some were funny. Others were boring. Some came out with scratchy, harsh timbres. The imperfection of it all gave me permission to have fun.

    I focused on generating separate musical elements with my text prompts, rather than fully arranged samples. A generated drum beat or melody line could be enough to inspire a completely new musical track in a style I would never have attempted otherwise.

    This output was used in the track How Things Grow.
    ·

    Sometimes, one generated sample was enough. Other times, I challenged myself to use only AI-generated sounds to create a full track. In these cases, I used techniques such as filtering and looping small snippets to tease out the sounds I wanted.

    For instance, I used the following audio samples to create the track below:

    These snippets were used in the track Boom Boom Boom.
    ·

    The process felt like a collaboration – like I was making music with a kooky colleague. This took away the pressure to make “perfect” music, and instead allowed me to focus on new creative possibilities.

    My takeaways

    I’ve concluded it’s not a bad idea to know what large music AIs are capable of. We can use them to further our own musical understanding, such as by studying how they use stylistic trends and mixing techniques, or how they translate musical ideas to suggest different genres.

    For me, the key to quashing my AI scepticism was using an AI that didn’t take over the entire working process. I remained flexible to its suggestions, while using my own knowledge to retain creative control.

    My experience isn’t isolated. Multiple studies have found that users of music AIs reported feeling satisfied with programs that allowed them to retain a sense of ownership over the composing process.

    The connecting factor across these projects was that the AI did not generate entire musical works in one go. Instead, a limited amount of musical information was generated (such as rhythms, melodies or chords), allowing the user to dictate the final result.

    The beauty in human imperfection

    Despite Shulman’s claims, the key to a meaningful relationship with music AI is to work alongside it – not to let it do all the work.

    Do I think every music student should start incorporating AI into their daily practice? No. But under the right circumstances, it can provide the tools to produce something truly creative.

    Making “imperfect” art that takes time – and hard work – is the price of being human. And I’m grateful for that.

    ·

    The author received a once-off financial commission from the Sydney Opera House to develop musical work made using the Koup Music AI, which premiered at the Sydney Opera House through a livestream broadcast on July 15th, 2023. After this initial performance the author continued to test the AI model for artistic research purposes. No funding was received to help prepare the manuscripts or research associated with this article. The author will not benefit financially from any promotion of the Koup Music tool, and has never received payment from Kopi Su.

    ref. I was a music AI sceptic – until I actually used it – https://theconversation.com/i-was-a-music-ai-sceptic-until-i-actually-used-it-252499

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  • MIL-Evening Report: This week’s federal budget will focus on cost-of-living measures – and a more uncertain global economy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers will bring down the federal budget on Tuesday.

    It’s likely most of the major spending initiatives have already been announced. An extra A$8.5 billion in spending on Medicare will aim to ensure nine out of ten GP visits will be bulk billed by 2030. Queensland’s Bruce Highway is to be upgraded with the Albanese Government providing $7.2 billion of the $9 billion cost.

    In a speech last week, Chalmers promised “meaningful and substantial” cost-of-living relief.

    He also stressed the global economy is more volatile and unpredictable. He said the budget bottom line would be little changed from the mid-year update released in December, when the deficit was forecast to be $26.9 billion this financial year.

    It was a comprehensive dress rehearsal for tomorrow evening’s budget speech.

    No rabbits out of the hat

    Australian budgets today are well signposted in advance in speeches such as this. That is deliberate. It is seen as a mark of responsible fiscal management to have few surprises, either positive or negative.

    In past decades, treasurers were prone to announcing surprise spending measures. No longer. The rationale for rejecting the “rabbit out of a hat” approach was spelled out by former treasurer Wayne Swan in his 2008 budget lockup press conference: he said the budget had to be “responsible”. Chalmers was Swan’s deputy chief of staff at the time.

    This means calls by economists such as Chris Richardson and Ken Henry for major tax reform are unlikely to be heeded.

    Bracket creep (increases in tax revenues as taxpayers move into higher tax brackets) will do most of the work in the very gradual windback of the budget deficit. In the mid-year budget update, it was projected to take a decade to return the budget to balance.




    Read more:
    If Treasury forecasts are right, it could be a decade before Australia is ‘back in black’


    Good luck rather than good management

    Not that a balanced or surplus budget is a sign of good budgeting. The driver of recent budget surpluses under both Labor and Coalition governments has not been government policy but stronger than expected commodity prices and exports. They have been accidental, not deliberate.

    While deficits add to debt, imposing costs on future generations, what matters is whether the debts can be paid. If the economy grows faster than the rate of debt, the situation is manageable. So we are likely to see a chart in Tuesday’s budget papers showing this, with debt gradually declining as a share of Gross Domestic Product over time.

    However, these forecasts for the bottom line do not include off-budget items such as special green energy funds or student debt write-offs that total close to $100 billion, according to Deloitte Access Economics.

    This is because the budget covers only the “general government sector” – public service departments and agencies and the defence force. It is not the whole of the public sector, which includes commercial or financial entities like government business enterprises, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and various funds.

    On Sunday, the government announced further cost-of-living relief with an extension of electricity rebates, giving households another $150 this year. This will avoid headline inflation rebounding above 3%, as the Reserve Bank is currently forecasting.

    The energy rebate last year cost the budget an estimated $3.5 billion in 2024-25. Extending it for six months will cost $1.8 billion. Chalmers has also promised another reduction in the maximum cost of prescription medicines to $25.

    In December’s budget update, the unemployment rate was forecast to be around 4½% in mid-2025 and stay around that level for the next couple of years. Given the unemployment rate was steady at 4.1% in February, that forecast may be lowered.

    Inflation was forecast to stay below 3%.

    The increasing risk of a global trade war will see some reduction in forecasts for global and Australian economic growth. The OECD has lowered its forecasts for global growth and emphasised the international outlook is highly uncertain.

    This means the Australian budget forecasts are more likely than usual to be wrong. We just don’t know in which direction they will be wrong – will they be too optimistic or pessimistic?

    What will it mean for interest rates?

    The Reserve Bank board is unlikely to feel it has enough additional information to cut interest rates again at the April 1 meeting.

    Nonetheless, the government will be constrained in how much support it can provide households. It does not want undermine its narrative of future interest rate cuts by stimulating household spending too much.

    Something to watch for will be “decisions taken but not yet announced”. These are additional initiatives the government will announce during the election campaign. They will be able to answer the “where’s the money coming from?” question by saying they are already included in the budget.

    Finally, will there be increases in defence spending? US President Donald Trump is pressing US allies to do this. Trouble is, defence spending does not address the political problem of cost-of-living pressures – if anything it adds to them.

    A potential way out is for government to support more defence spending, but only “in principle”, leaving the details for future budgets. That would help manage both domestic and international pressures.

    John Hawkins was a formerly a senior economist at the Treasury and Reserve Bank.

    Stephen Bartos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. This week’s federal budget will focus on cost-of-living measures – and a more uncertain global economy – https://theconversation.com/this-weeks-federal-budget-will-focus-on-cost-of-living-measures-and-a-more-uncertain-global-economy-252515

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Trouble at Tesla and protests against Trump’s tariffs suggest consumer boycotts are starting to bite

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin O’Brien, Associate Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University

    Getty Images

    When the United States starts a trade war with your country, how do you fight back? For individuals, one option is to wage a personal trade war and boycott products from the US.

    President Donald Trump has said no nation will be exempt from his tariffs, and this includes both Australia and New Zealand. His tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, in particular, could hurt the sector in Australia, while New Zealand’s meat and wine exports to the US could also feel the effect.

    So far, political leaders have responded differently. Canada, Mexico and the European Union have imposed reciprocal tariffs on the US, while Australia has indicated it will not retaliate.

    But whether governments choose to push back or not, citizens in those and other countries are making their own stands. This includes artists such as renowned pianist András Schiff, who has cancelled his upcoming US tour.

    Most notably, collective outrage at the US president has led to a growing global boycott of Elon Musk’s Tesla due to his role in the Trump administration. Sales of new Tesla vehicles are down 72% in Australia and 76% in Germany. The share price has dropped by more than 50% since December 2024, with calls for Musk to step down as chief executive.

    Some governments are even encouraging consumer boycotts. The Canadian government, for example, has urged citizens to “fight back against the unjustified US tariffs” by purchasing Canadian products and holidaying in Canada.

    Canadians are clearly embracing this advice. Road trips to the US have dropped by more than 20% in the past month and US liquor brands have been removed from some Canadian stores altogether.

    This rise in calls for boycotts of American brands and companies is unsurprising in the Trump 2.0 era, where the lines between government and corporate America have become increasingly blurred.

    Political change by proxy

    When people want to protest a government policy, but have no political leverage because they’re not citizens of that country, boycotting corporations or brands gives them a voice. These actions are sometimes called “surrogate” or “proxy” boycotts.

    This form of “political consumerism”, where individuals align their consumption choices with their values, is now one of the most common forms of political participation in western liberal democracies.

    When France opposed the war in Iraq in 2003, US supporters of the war aimed boycotts at French imports. Consumers in the US, United Kingdom and elsewhere have boycotted Russian goods over the invasion of Ukraine, and targeted Israel over its military action and policies in Gaza and the West Bank.

    Most famously, protests against the apartheid regime in South Africa from the 1950s through to the 1990s helped isolate and eventually change its government.

    The current boycotts are not just protesting Trump’s trade war, of course. They are also about the role of unelected leaders from the corporate world, such as Musk and the heads of the Big Tech and social media companies, and their perceived self-interest and influence.

    Trump has responded angrily to consumer boycotts, calling the actions against Tesla “illegal”, which they are not. Indeed, political leaders like Trump often argue that consumer action, rather than government regulation, should be relied on to ensure corporations conform to social expectations.

    Ukrainians demonstrate in front of the Lukoil headquarters in Belgium over European imports of Russian fossil fuels, 2022.
    Getty Images

    How to wage a personal trade war

    Consumer boycotts do create change under certain conditions – typically when there is a contained problem that the targeted corporation has the power to solve.

    For example, consumer boycotts against Nestlé in the 1970s over false and dangerous marketing of powdered milk for infants led to changes in the firm’s marketing approaches. Boycotts of Nike products over sweatshop conditions for workers had a direct impact on the company’s bottom line and led to improvements.

    Things may still need to improve at Nestlé and Nike, but these boycotts show consumer pressure can catalyse corporate action. However, it is much harder – though not impossible – for boycott campaigns to succeed when the target is a government.

    Consumers boycotting American products can amplify the impact of their protest by also lobbying retailers. For example, if enough consumers stop buying a bottle of soft drink from the US, major supermarkets like Woolworths and Foodstuffs will stop buying thousands of bottles.

    There are also other ways to “vote with your wallet”. People can engage in “political investorism” by using their power as a shareholder, bank customer or pension-fund member to express their political views.

    After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for example, investors sought to divest from Russian companies, and superannuation funds were pressured by their members to do the same.

    As consumers and investors, individuals can wage a personal trade war, sending a clear message. Trump may not be willing to listen to the leaders of allied nations, but if consumer and investor pressure is sustained and spreads globally, he may yet hear the voice of corporate America.

    Erin O’Brien receives funding from the Australian Research Council to examine consumer and investor activism for social change. She is affiliated with the Australian Political Studies Association.

    Justine Coneybeer receives funding from the Australian Research Council to investigate ethical investment.

    ref. Trouble at Tesla and protests against Trump’s tariffs suggest consumer boycotts are starting to bite – https://theconversation.com/trouble-at-tesla-and-protests-against-trumps-tariffs-suggest-consumer-boycotts-are-starting-to-bite-252489

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Adelaide Hills water crisis: a local problem is a global wake-up call

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Holland, Principal Research Scientist, Water Security, CSIRO

    A dry farm dam in Montacute, Adelaide Hills, March 2025. Ilan Sagi.

    The Adelaide Hills are experiencing severe water shortages. The root cause? A prolonged dry period and not enough water tankers to meet unprecedented demand from people not connected to the mains water supply.

    Thousands of residents and farmers are hurting as dams, tanks and streams dry up. Water tankers are becoming a common sight, carting in desperately needed water. People are waiting weeks for expensive water deliveries.

    The South Australian government has set up emergency water collection points to cope with the demand from off-grid families. More water tankers have been secured. But despite recent rain, the situation is far from over.

    We found rainfall and flows into Adelaide’s reservoirs are at their lowest levels in 40 years. Reservoir levels have dropped to 44% – the lowest for more than 20 years.

    Adelaide is not currently at risk of running out of water; the state government built a desalination plant after the Millennium Drought. Production at the desal plant is four to six times higher than usual to meet demand. Without the desal plant and water from the River Murray, the city would be under severe water restrictions.

    But the crisis shows many off-grid families, farms and businesses need new options to plan for the future.

    Over the past 12 months, rainfall in parts of South Australia has been the lowest on record.
    Commonwealth of Australia 2025, Bureau of Meteorology

    Global water stress

    This is not the first time entire communities have run out of water.

    Cape Town in South Africa nearly ran out of water in 2018. The city of nearly 4 million people was weeks away from “Day Zero”.

    In Australia, several regional and rural country towns have hit their own Day Zero. Stanthorpe in Queensland officially ran out of water in January 2020. Truckloads of water were carted into town every day to meet residential demand.

    Scientists have coined a new term, “hydroclimate whiplash”, to describe the rapid swings between intensely wet and dangerously dry weather currently occurring across the globe. This climate volatility amplifies natural hazards such as flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease.

    The January wildfires in Los Angeles happened when two wet winters were followed by an extremely dry autumn and winter, providing plenty of dry fuel for fire.

    These aren’t isolated events. The global water crisis didn’t go away.

    The bigger picture

    What’s happening in the Adelaide Hills – and in other very dry places worldwide – demonstrates the need for careful, long-term water security planning.

    The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6 is to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all”. Water stress already affects more than 2 billion people – more than a quarter of the world’s population.

    By 2030, the UN predicts 2 billion people will still be living without safely managed drinking water, 3 billion without safely managed sanitation, and 1.4 billion without basic hygiene services.

    For many, this is literally a life-or-death matter.

    Investing in water security

    CSIRO is collaborating with industry, government and research organisations on research to overcome drought and build resilience for regional Australia. Our researchers are testing how well each of these strategies might work in different regions during extended dry periods. We calculate how much water can be collected and stored during the driest periods on record.

    Rainfall over Norfolk Island, a subtropical island in the Pacific Ocean roughly 1,500km southeast of Brisbane, has declined by 11% since 1970, with long runs of dry years in recent decades. The future is likely to be drier still.

    Our Norfolk Island Water Resource Assessment explored ways to help the community determine how to adapt and build resilience to drought.

    Since this project finished in 2020, residential and commercial rainwater tanks have been upgraded and a new seawater desalination plant installed. Other options to diversify water supplies included sharing groundwater bores, capturing runoff in gully dams, managing vegetation water use, and storing water underground.

    Excess water from rainwater or recycled wastewater can sometimes be stored underground in natural reservoirs called aquifers for use during drought. This is called “water banking” or “managed aquifer recharge”. The technique has been developed over the past 20 years and used to safely store water underground across Australia and overseas.

    Brackish (salty) groundwater is a potential water source that could be unlocked during drought. A National Water Grid funded project is investigating ways to use groundwater that would normally be too salty, along with renewable energy to power inland desalination plants. The project is investigating the prospect of using brackish groundwater across Western Australia for the first time.

    Future generations are likely to face more severe water shortages.
    Rosie Sheba

    A call to action

    The Adelaide Hills water crisis is a microcosm of a global issue. It’s a reminder action is needed now to secure our water future. Not when the water runs out.

    Deeper groundwater bores, water tankers on standby and bigger water storages are all potentially part of the portfolio of emergency plans. And due to climate change, the Adelaide Hills water crisis will happen again if we are unprepared. It is a question of when, not if.

    We have also seen the catastrophic effects of drought in Los Angeles – a tinderbox waiting to burn, and insufficient water on hand to fight the fires. We can and must prepare for natural disasters today. These are not unforeseen consequences. They are not “unknown unknowns”. We know them today. We will have no excuse when this happens.

    By adopting more sustainable water management policies and practices in the longer term, we can make sure the spectre of Day Zero does not become real for more communities around the world.

    With thanks to CSIRO Senior Research Scientist and Hydrologist Matt Gibbs and Principal Experimental Scientist in Hydrogeology Andrew Taylor.

    Kate Holland receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, and Department of Industry, Science and Resources.

    Craig T. Simmons has received funding for water research from various government and non-government organisations in the past. He is currently serving as Chief Scientist for South Australia.

    ref. Adelaide Hills water crisis: a local problem is a global wake-up call – https://theconversation.com/adelaide-hills-water-crisis-a-local-problem-is-a-global-wake-up-call-251265

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Better than nothing’: clinicians and hospital heads accept lower standards of care outside metro hospitals

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olivia Fisher, Senior Research Fellow, Applied Implementation Science, Charles Darwin University

    Seven million Australians live in rural and remote areas and many struggle to access the same quality of health care as those in metropolitan areas.
    More than 18,000 Australians have no access to primary health care services within an hour’s drive time from their home, and many are hours or even multiple days’ drive from their closest major hospital. Travel to a major city to access health care is costly and time-consuming.

    Rural Australians have almost A$850 less spent on their health per year than those in major cities.

    People living in rural and remote Australia have substantially higher levels of preventable hospitalisations, burden of disease, and avoidable deaths. This leaves a gap in median life expectancy between people in very remote areas and major cities of 13 years for men and 16 years for women.

    Our new research shows clinicians and health care decision-makers are willing to accept a lower standard of care for people outside of major cities because they consider it better than nothing.

    Relying on what they have

    Our research investigated Queensland clinicians’ and health care decision-makers’ perspectives on virtual health care as a means to improve access to care.

    We also asked about what constitutes acceptable quality and standards for rural patients.

    Although we used virtual health care as an example, the results are indicative of a broader issue.

    What is virtual health care? What are its pros and cons?

    “Virtual health care” is more than just telehealth. It includes:

    • hospital in the home. A nurse will visit a patient in their home to provide treatments such as intravenous antibiotics, coupled with telehealth consultations with a doctor. This model of care can achieve similar outcomes to those at traditional hospitals

    • virtual wards, such as influenza or COVID wards. These wards involve a patient in their home, and combination of telehealth, remote monitoring devices such as pulse oximeters, and face-to-face care from visiting clinicians if required.

    • virtual emergency departments. These support patients who can be safely and effectively managed at home. Emergency doctors and nurses provide guidance and identify which patients need to present to a traditional emergency department.

    Virtual health care can minimise travel time to major cities, keeping patients better connected with their family and community while undergoing treatment.

    Virtual health care often involves nurse care and doctor telehealth.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    However, virtual health care is not currently suitable for patients who require intensive care, some types of physical procedures, or for patients at high risk of complications.

    Virtual services need to be well-designed, with appropriately trained clinicians, and consider what can and cannot be accomplished remotely.

    When virtual health care isn’t well designed, and clinicians aren’t adequately trained, it can result in poor patient outcomes. As one doctor explained:

    I can catalogue just over the last month, I’ve seen errors in telehealth […] They’ve missed pneumonia, they’ve missed kidney stones, they’ve missed a bowel obstruction, they’ve missed an ischaemic valve, they’ve missed an MI [myocardial infarction]. You know, all because they think they can do all these things on telehealth […].

    Our research

    We interviewed 26 clinicians (such as doctors and nurses) and executive leaders from private, not-for-profit hospitals and aged care services in metropolitan, regional, rural and remote Queensland in 2023.

    Most participants expressed reticence towards using telehealth and other forms of virtual health care for people in major cities who can readily access traditional hospitals and providers face-to-face.

    They felt safety and care standards would be inferior to traditional inpatient care.

    However, they said virtual health care – even if it was a lower standard to traditional hospitals – was better than nothing. As one doctor and health service leader said:

    there’s no other choice is there, so you just do it that way.

    Another doctor and health service leader explained:

    But we would use it for sure. I mean especially those days when we get, you know, which is becoming more and more common where the hospital rings down there’s no beds. There’s no beds and you’re like, well, what do I do now I’ve got ten people here and nowhere to send them.

    Sometimes patients can’t be cared for in other settings and need to go to hospital.
    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    Towards more equitable care for rural patients

    Sub-standard health care will not bring health outcomes and life-expectancy of people in rural and remote areas up to parity – it will merely reinforce current inequities.

    We need to design health services that improve both quality and access. Taking health-care models that work in our major cities and rolling them out in rural areas doesn’t work. We need tailored, creative solutions that meet the same standards we would expect in a city.

    In addition to increasing and improving access to virtual health care, we also need to:

    • attract and retain a rural health workforce of experienced practitioners to provide face-to-face services

    • design health services in conjunction with the community to ensure they suit local needs and conditions

    • address state and federal government funding issues that impact the sustainability and capacity for innovation of rural health services.

    An unconscious willingness to accept better than nothing is simply not good enough for the millions of Australians who live outside of major cities.

    Olivia Fisher receives funding from UnitingCare Queensland.

    Caroline Grogan receives funding from UnitingCare Queensland and the Irene Patricia Hunt Memorial Trust.

    Kelly McGrath receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Industry, Science and Resources via an Elevate Scholarship, Wesley Research Institute, UnitingCare Queensland, Mitsubishi Development, and the Catalano Family Foundation.

    ref. ‘Better than nothing’: clinicians and hospital heads accept lower standards of care outside metro hospitals – https://theconversation.com/better-than-nothing-clinicians-and-hospital-heads-accept-lower-standards-of-care-outside-metro-hospitals-251063

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Despite some key milestones since 2000, Australia still has a long way to go on gender equality

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janeen Baxter, Director, ARC Life Course Centre and ARC Kathleen Fitzpatrick Laureate Fellow, The University of Queensland

    Australia has a gender problem. Despite social, economic and political reform aimed at improving opportunities for women, gender gaps are increasing and Australia is falling behind other countries.

    The World Economic Forum currently places Australia 24th among 146 countries, down from 15th in 2006. At the current rate of change, the forum suggests it will take more than 130 years to achieve gender equality globally.

    Australia has taken important steps forward in some areas, while progress in other areas remains painfully slow. So how far have we come since 2000, and how much further do we have to go?

    The good stuff

    There are now more women in the labour market, in parliament, and leading large companies than at any other time.

    Over the past 25 years, there have been major social and political milestones that indicate progress.

    These include the appointment of Australia’s first female governor-general in 2008 and prime minister in 2010, the introduction of universal paid parental leave in 2011, a high-profile inquiry into workplace sexual harassment in 2020, and new legislation requiring the public reporting of gender pay gaps in 2023.

    Timeline of equality milestones

    • 2000

      Child Care Benefit introduced, subsidising cost of children for eligible families

    • 2008

      First female Governor-General (Dame Quentin Bryce)

    • 2010

      First female Prime Minister elected (Julia Gillard)

      First Aboriginal woman from Australia elected to UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues (Megan Davis)

      Australia’s first national paid parental leave scheme

    • 2012

      Julia Gillard misogyny speech

      Workplace Gender Equality Act becomes law, Workplace Gender Equality Agency established

    • 2013

      Dad or Partner Pay Leave commenced

    • 2016

      First Indigenous woman elected to House of Representatives (Linda Burney)

    • 2017

      Launch of Women’s Australian Football League

      #metoo movement spreads globally to draw attention to sexual harassment and assault

    • 2020

      Respect@Work National Inquiry into sexual harassment in the Australian workplace chaired by Kate Jenkins released.

    • 2021

      Grace Tame named Australian of the Year for her advocacy in sexual violence/harassment campaigns

      Independent review into Commonwealth parliamentary workplaces launched

    • 2022

      National plan to end violence against women is finalised

    • 2023

      Closing the Gender Pay Gap Bill passes parliament

    • 2024

      Superannuation on government-funded paid parental leave from July 1, 2025

      Parental leave to be increased to 26 weeks from July 2026.

    There are, however, other areas where progress is agonisingly slow.

    Violence and financial insecurity

    Women are more likely to be in casual and part-time employment than men. This is part of the reason women retire with about half the superannuation savings of men.

    This is also linked to financial insecurity later in life. Older women are among the fastest-growing groups of people experiencing homelessness.

    The situation for First Nations women is even more severe. The most recent Closing the Gap report indicates First Nations women and children are 33 times more likely to be hospitalised due to violence compared with non-Indigenous women.

    They are also seven times more likely to die from family violence.

    Improving outcomes for Indigenous women and children requires tackling the long-term effects of colonisation, removal from Country, the Stolen Generations, incarceration and intergenerational trauma. This means challenging not only gender inequality but also racism, discrimination and violence.

    At work, the latest data from the Workplace Gender Equality Agency suggests the gender pay gap is narrowing, with 56% of organisations reporting improvements.

    On average, though, the pay gap is still substantial at 21.8% with women earning only 78 cents for every $1 earned by men. This totals an average yearly shortfall of $28,425.

    There are also some notable organisations where the gender pay gap has widened.

    The burden of unpaid work

    Another measure of inequality that has proved stubbornly slow to change is women’s unequal responsibilities for unpaid domestic and care work.

    Without real change in gender divisions of time spent on unpaid housework and care, our capacity to move towards equality in pay gaps and employment is very limited.

    Australian women do more unpaid and domestic work after having children.
    Shutterstock

    Australian women undertake almost 70% of unpaid household labour. The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics time use data show that of those who participate in domestic labour, women spend an average of 4.13 hours per day on unpaid domestic and care work, compared with men’s 2.14 hours.

    This gap equates to more than a third of a full-time job. If we add up all work (domestic, care and paid), mothers have the longest working week by about 10 hours. This has changed very little over time.

    These charts, based on analyses of data from the Households, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) study, show what drives this gap.

    Women respond to increased demand for care and domestic work by doing more, while men do not. Parenthood significantly increases the time women spend on unpaid care and housework, while also reducing their time in employment.



    Men increase their time in unpaid care after a birth, but the jump is minor compared with women, and there is no change to men’s employment hours.

    Not surprisingly given these patterns, parenthood is associated with substantial declines in women’s employment hours, earnings, career progression, and mental health and wellbeing.

    The way forward

    Current policy priorities primarily incentivise women to remain in employment, while continuing to undertake a disproportionate share of unpaid family work, through moving to part-time employment or making use of other forms of workplace flexibility. This approach focuses on “fixing” women rather than on the structural roots of the problem.

    There is limited financial or cultural encouragement for men to step out of employment for care work, or reduce their hours, despite the introduction of a two-week Dad and Partner Pay scheme in 2013 and more recent changes to expand support and access.

    Fathers who wish to be more actively involved in care and family life face significant financial barriers, with current schemes only covering a basic wage. If one member of the family has to take time out or reduce their hours, it usually makes financial sense for this to be a woman, given the gender earning gap.

    The benefits of enabling men to share care work will not only be improvements for women, but will also improve family relationships and outcomes for children.

    Research shows relationship conflict declines when men do more at home. Time spent with fathers has been found to be especially beneficial for children’s cognitive development.

    Fixing the gender problem is not just about helping women. It’s good for everyone.

    Gender inequality costs the Australian economy $225 billion annually, or 12% of gross domestic product.

    Globally, the World Bank estimates gender inequality costs US$160.2 trillion. We can’t afford to slip further behind or to take more than a century to fix the problem.


    This piece is part of a series on how Australia has changed since the year 2000. You can read other pieces in the series here.

    Janeen Baxter receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course (CE200100025) and an Australian Research Council Kathleen Fitzpatrick Laureate Fellowship (FL230100104).

    ref. Despite some key milestones since 2000, Australia still has a long way to go on gender equality – https://theconversation.com/despite-some-key-milestones-since-2000-australia-still-has-a-long-way-to-go-on-gender-equality-250250

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Should Australia increase its defence spending? We asked 5 experts

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justin Bergman, International Affairs Editor

    Both Labor and the Coalition are considering an increase to defence spending ahead of the federal election.

    Defence spending is currently at about 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), or around A$56 billion per year. The Coalition is reportedly eyeing an increase to 2.5% of GDP by 2029.

    The Albanese government’s current spending plan is expected to reach 2.33% of GDP by 2034. And in this week’s budget, it is expected to bring forward some of its already announced $50 billion increase in defence spending.

    Why do these percentages matter? US President Donald Trump has made it very clear he expects America’s allies to pay more on defence, at least 3% of GDP.

    We asked five experts if defence spending should be increased, and if so, by how much. They agreed more money is needed, albeit with caveats.

    ref. Should Australia increase its defence spending? We asked 5 experts – https://theconversation.com/should-australia-increase-its-defence-spending-we-asked-5-experts-252374

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump threats: Is foreign policy the biggest issue for Canadian voters this election?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Adam Chapnick, Professor of Defence Studies, Royal Military College of Canada

    Canadians are heading once again to the polls on April 28 to vote in a federal election.

    This election will offer voters competing visions of Canada’s future at a time when it has become all but impossible to separate foreign policy from domestic politics.

    There’s no question much of the conversation during the campaign will centre on how the next government will deal with United States President Donald Trump amid his continuing threats to Canadian sovereignty.

    But even though the Trump administration has undermined the liberal democratic world order in which Canada has prospered for close to a century, it’s unclear whether threats of a global tariff war, an ongoing divisive conflict in the Middle East and continued Russian aggression in Ukraine will directly affect how Canadians cast their votes.

    Most political scientists have traditionally argued that foreign policy does not matter to Canadians at the voting booth.

    But a recent book by historian Patrice Dutil has claimed that “at least half of Canada’s national elections featured substantive discussions of Canada’s place in the world.”

    So who’s right?

    Foreign policy as an issue

    My new report, “Foreign Policy and Canadian Elections: A Review,” finds truth on both sides.

    Foreign policy is what people who study elections call an “issue,” just like the economy, national security or health care.

    Issues compete with many other considerations — like ideology, perceptions of leadership and the need for change — to determine a voter’s ultimate decision.

    Local candidates can affect how people vote, as can party affiliation. If you live in a riding where your preferred candidate is unlikely to win, you might vote strategically.

    According to Canadian political scientist Elizabeth Gidengil, for an issue like foreign policy to really matter in an election, it must satisfy three conditions:

    • Political parties must position themselves on opposite sides of it;
    • Voters must be aware of the differences between the parties’ views;
    • The balance of opinion on the issue must clearly favour one side over the other.

    That rarely happens in relation to Canadian foreign policy. Our political parties don’t typically differ significantly on world affairs. When they do disagree, it’s unusual for the public to overwhelmingly support one side over the other.




    Read more:
    Trump’s potential embrace of ‘continentalist geopolitics’ poses grave risks to Canada


    Handling the Trump threat

    There are no real divisions between the election’s front-runners — Liberal Mark Carney and Conservative Pierre Poilievre — over how to deal with Trump.

    Both have pledged that Canada will never become the 51st state and have promised to strike back at American tariffs with economic measures of their own.

    Poilievre says he’ll manage Canada-U.S. relations more effectively than the Liberals would, but he has not proposed any different tactics to do so.

    On the other hand, Poilievre was clearly onto something in his endless quest to make the election all about the Justin Trudeau government’s carbon tax and rebate.

    Until Carney replaced Trudeau, the differences between the Conservatives and the Liberals on carbon pricing were stark. Thanks to an extraordinary Conservative marketing campaign, the Canadian public was well aware of those differences — and a significant majority of Canadians sided with Poilievre.

    Now that Carney has axed the tax himself, those differences have become much less significant.

    Domestic politics aside, Trump will still loom large throughout the next five weeks.

    But international and domestic issues have been, and remain, sufficiently interconnected that it’s hard to discuss one to the exclusion of the other.

    Free trade with the United States was a key topic of debate during four election campaigns — 1891, 1911, 1935, 1988 — because of its impact on Canadians’ sense of independence.

    Canadians were divided over conscription during the 1917 election campaign. They differed over support for Britain during the 1956 Suez crisis and throughout the election the following year.

    Just as the American invasion of Iraq split the Liberals and the Canadian Alliance during the election of 2003, so did attitudes towards increased defence spending in 2000. Canadian support for Syrian refugees came up regularly during the 2015 election campaign.

    Still, it’s not clear if these differences affected more than a small number of individual Canadians when they marked their ballots.

    Voters tend to cast their ballots emotionally, and even though Trump is preoccupying the national consciousness at the moment, the leading political parties have not offered us specific policy alternatives to deal with him.

    What’s ahead this election campaign

    Over the next five weeks, Canadians should expect to learn about the leading political parties’ views on relations with the U.S., the situations in the Middle East and Ukraine, foreign interference in the affairs of state and Canada’s global defence.

    Voters can and should demand that those who wish to lead the country are thoughtful and literate on these and other international issues.

    As then Prime Minister Stephen Harper reflected in 2011:

    “Since coming to office — in fact, since becoming prime minister [in 2006] — the thing that’s probably struck me the most in terms of my previous expectations … is not just how important foreign affairs/foreign relations is, but in fact that it’s become almost everything. There’s hardly anything today of any significance that doesn’t have a huge international dimension to it.”

    But expecting party views on foreign policy to shape the election’s outcome is probably unrealistic.

    When we head to the voting booths, most Canadians will likely just listen to their gut.

    Exactly how Carney or Poilievre promises to deal with Trump probably won’t matter nearly as much as who they simply feel will do a better job on a host of issues.

    Adam Chapnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Trump threats: Is foreign policy the biggest issue for Canadian voters this election? – https://theconversation.com/trump-threats-is-foreign-policy-the-biggest-issue-for-canadian-voters-this-election-247065

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can Mark Carney truly connect with Canadian voters? Canada will now find out

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Quigley, Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie University

    After a busy two weeks as prime minister, Mark Carney has called an election for April 28.

    As the first in Canadian history to be named prime minister without ever having held public office, Carney is hoping he can win the trust of Canadians. He’ll run for a seat in the Ottawa riding of Nepean.

    Trustworthiness is awarded to those who are at least perceived as knowledgeable, transparent and concerned. Can Carney pull it off?

    When it comes to economics, Carney is among the most knowledgeable in the country. After obtaining a PhD at the University of Oxford, Carney has had a distinguished public service career in the Canadian Department of Finance, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.

    With such a high level of economic uncertainty today in the face of repeated threats from United States President Donald Trump, his supporters say he’s the right person to lead Canada. His chief rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, was first elected to the House of Commons at the age of 25 and has quite a different CV.

    Is Carney empathetic?

    Carney, however, might struggle more with the other characteristics of trustworthiness — seeming open and showing concern.

    The Conservatives have criticized Carney for not being more transparent about his private financial interests. While Carney is following disclosure rules, the Conservatives argue Canadians need to know more about whether he’s in a conflict of interest when he makes decisions in government.

    Carney’s answers to questions about his time at Brookfield Asset Management have on occasion been unsteady.

    On the surface, this is about transparency, but in fact it’s just as much about empathy and whether Carney can relate to working-class voters. By alluding to Carney’s wealth and connections, the Conservatives are implying that Carney is an out-of-touch elite who doesn’t share the concerns of average Canadians.

    Some of the early visuals of Carney can cut both ways.

    His recent chummy embrace at the Élysée with French President Emmanuel Macron exemplifies how immediately comfortable he is with world leaders. Some will find this reassuring, given the state of geopolitics; others might find it privileged and off-putting. Even his hockey skills, which were part of a recent photo-op in Edmonton when he practised with the Oilers, were acquired partly during his time at Harvard University, an institution among the most elite in the world.

    Empathy, instinct

    Can Carney connect with people?

    Arguably, he needs work on this front. He might consider some of his Liberal predecessors.

    Former prime minister Justin Trudeau could certainly rally a crowd. Trudeau became a motivational speaker in the 2000s and used opportunities like the WE Charity to practise public speaking to what would become an important constituency for him — young voters — when he led the Liberals to victory in 2015.

    Not everything can be taught at school. Political instinct is also crucial. It requires reconciling the knowledge of experts with the concerns of everyday citizens. There is no formula for this balance sheet.

    Here again, Trudeau had insight. Bill Morneau, a corporate executive himself and the former federal finance minister, noted after the COVID-19 pandemic that government payouts had been too generous and driven more by Trudeau’s view of the politics of the moment than by the economic analysis provided to him by the Finance Department.

    This may be so, but most would say Trudeau handled the early stages of the pandemic deftly.

    Chretien’s skills

    It was interesting that at the recent Liberal convention confirming Carney as leader, delegates gushed over former prime minister Jean Chretien, far from an elitist. A winner of three consecutive majorities, Chretien delivered a speech that went over at least as well with delegates as Carney’s.

    Chretien had unparalleled political instincts. When Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney rolled out the GST in 1991, it was deeply unpopular. Despite Chretien later famously backtracking on his original opposition to the GST, the Liberal Party under his stewardship used the issue to exact maximum damage on the Progressive Conservatives, delivering them a near-fatal blow.

    Chretien’s killer instincts trumped expert knowledge. While the Progressive Conservatives paid a heavy price for adopting the GST, the policy was largely advocated and shaped by business and economic elites, including in the Department of Finance. Good economics does not always make for good politics.

    Emotions to run high

    If the 1988 federal election that focused almost exclusively on free trade with the U.S. is any indication of what the next few weeks will look like in Canada, the election campaign is going to get heated quickly. Arguments may be more emotional than sensible.

    The fact that Carney dropped the carbon tax and capital gains tax was an early sign that he’s not an economist anymore, he’s a politician.

    The challenge for Carney — and for any politician in the heat of an election campaign battle — will be to find the sweet spot that reconciles expert opinion with public concerns and to articulate policies in a manner that voters will understand and support.

    Kevin Quigley receives funding from SSHRC.

    ref. Can Mark Carney truly connect with Canadian voters? Canada will now find out – https://theconversation.com/can-mark-carney-truly-connect-with-canadian-voters-canada-will-now-find-out-252365

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump threats: Is foreign policy really the biggest issue for Canadian voters this election?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Adam Chapnick, Professor of Defence Studies, Royal Military College of Canada

    Canadians are heading once again to the polls on April 28 to vote in a federal election.

    This election will offer voters competing visions of Canada’s future at a time when it has become all but impossible to separate foreign policy from domestic politics.

    There’s no question much of the conversation during the campaign will centre on how the next government will deal with United States President Donald Trump amid his continuing threats to Canadian sovereignty.

    But even though the Trump administration has undermined the liberal democratic world order in which Canada has prospered for close to a century, it’s unclear whether threats of a global tariff war, an ongoing divisive conflict in the Middle East and continued Russian aggression in Ukraine will directly affect how Canadians cast their votes.

    Most political scientists have traditionally argued that foreign policy does not matter to Canadians at the voting booth.

    But a recent book by historian Patrice Dutil has claimed that “at least half of Canada’s national elections featured substantive discussions of Canada’s place in the world.”

    So who’s right?

    Foreign policy as an issue

    My new report, “Foreign Policy and Canadian Elections: A Review,” finds truth on both sides.

    Foreign policy is what people who study elections call an “issue,” just like the economy, national security or health care.

    Issues compete with many other considerations — like ideology, perceptions of leadership and the need for change — to determine a voter’s ultimate decision.

    Local candidates can affect how people vote, as can party affiliation. If you live in a riding where your preferred candidate is unlikely to win, you might vote strategically.

    According to Canadian political scientist Elizabeth Gidengil, for an issue like foreign policy to really matter in an election, it must satisfy three conditions:

    • Political parties must position themselves on opposite sides of it;
    • Voters must be aware of the differences between the parties’ views;
    • The balance of opinion on the issue must clearly favour one side over the other.

    That rarely happens in relation to Canadian foreign policy. Our political parties don’t typically differ significantly on world affairs. When they do disagree, it’s unusual for the public to overwhelmingly support one side over the other.




    Read more:
    Trump’s potential embrace of ‘continentalist geopolitics’ poses grave risks to Canada


    Handling the Trump threat

    There are no real divisions between the election’s front-runners — Liberal Mark Carney and Conservative Pierre Poilievre — over how to deal with Trump.

    Both have pledged that Canada will never become the 51st state and have promised to strike back at American tariffs with economic measures of their own.

    Poilievre says he’ll manage Canada-U.S. relations more effectively than the Liberals would, but he has not proposed any different tactics to do so.

    On the other hand, Poilievre was clearly onto something in his endless quest to make the election all about the Justin Trudeau government’s carbon tax and rebate.

    Until Carney replaced Trudeau, the differences between the Conservatives and the Liberals on carbon pricing were stark. Thanks to an extraordinary Conservative marketing campaign, the Canadian public was well aware of those differences — and a significant majority of Canadians sided with Poilievre.

    Now that Carney has axed the tax himself, those differences have become much less significant.

    Domestic politics aside, Trump will still loom large throughout the next five weeks.

    But international and domestic issues have been, and remain, sufficiently interconnected that it’s hard to discuss one to the exclusion of the other.

    Free trade with the United States was a key topic of debate during four election campaigns — 1891, 1911, 1935, 1988 — because of its impact on Canadians’ sense of independence.

    Canadians were divided over conscription during the 1917 election campaign. They differed over support for Britain during the 1956 Suez crisis and throughout the election the following year.

    Just as the American invasion of Iraq split the Liberals and the Canadian Alliance during the election of 2003, so did attitudes towards increased defence spending in 2000. Canadian support for Syrian refugees came up regularly during the 2015 election campaign.

    Still, it’s not clear if these differences affected more than a small number of individual Canadians when they marked their ballots.

    Voters tend to cast their ballots emotionally, and even though Trump is preoccupying the national consciousness at the moment, the leading political parties have not offered us specific policy alternatives to deal with him.

    What’s ahead this election campaign

    Over the next five weeks, Canadians should expect to learn about the leading political parties’ views on relations with the U.S., the situations in the Middle East and Ukraine, foreign interference in the affairs of state and Canada’s global defence.

    Voters can and should demand that those who wish to lead the country are thoughtful and literate on these and other international issues.

    As then Prime Minister Stephen Harper reflected in 2011:

    “Since coming to office — in fact, since becoming prime minister [in 2006] — the thing that’s probably struck me the most in terms of my previous expectations … is not just how important foreign affairs/foreign relations is, but in fact that it’s become almost everything. There’s hardly anything today of any significance that doesn’t have a huge international dimension to it.”

    But expecting party views on foreign policy to shape the election’s outcome is probably unrealistic.

    When we head to the voting booths, most Canadians will likely just listen to their gut.

    Exactly how Carney or Poilievre promises to deal with Trump probably won’t matter nearly as much as who they simply feel will do a better job on a host of issues.

    Adam Chapnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Trump threats: Is foreign policy really the biggest issue for Canadian voters this election? – https://theconversation.com/trump-threats-is-foreign-policy-really-the-biggest-issue-for-canadian-voters-this-election-247065

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How political leaders communicate climate policy will be a defining factor this election

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andrew Heffernan, Climate Associate at the Information Integrity Lab and Adjunct Professor in Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Prime Minister Mark Carney has called an April 28 federal election, setting the stage for a campaign where climate policy could be a central issue.

    The current iteration of Canada’s consumer carbon rebate is dead — which many view as a casualty of effective communication — yet climate policy remains a pressing topic for voters and a major battleground for political leaders.




    Read more:
    The Canada Carbon Rebate is still widely misunderstood — here’s why


    As Canada grapples with intensifying climate-related challenges, the next government will not only need to implement evidence-based policies to meet international climate commitments, but also effectively communicate its vision to voters.

    The public remains concerned about environmental issues, yet many are worried that bold climate policies have damaged the economy. This tension between environmental responsibility and economic growth will shape how each party formulates and communicates their climate policies in the upcoming campaign.

    The Liberals: Navigating the middle ground

    For Carney and the Liberal Party, the challenge is twofold. First, the Liberals must present a new climate plan after the collapse of the consumer carbon rebate, which has faced widespread public opposition in recent years.

    While the new Liberal leader has already terminated the the carbon rebate, it still remains unclear what exactly his comprehensive climate plan will look like. Carney’s website states that his strategy will: “Provide incentives for consumers. Put more of the burden on big polluters. And help us build the strongest economy in the G7.”




    Read more:
    Big government, big trouble? Defending the future of Canada’s climate policy


    This suggests his climate policy will hinge more on positive incentives for consumers to invest in sustainable approaches rather than putting a cost on polluting.

    While the carbon rebate initially enjoyed broad support as a key tool for reducing emissions, it has become a lightning rod for political controversy.

    Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue; it’s increasingly seen as a matter of economic survival, with green energy jobs and clean technologies representing an opportunity for Canada to position itself as a global leader in the sector.

    Carney will have to make a convincing case that his policy will create jobs, stimulate innovation and provide a clear path toward a greener, more sustainable economy.

    Failing to do so could lead to the loss of centrist and moderate voters, some of whom are wary of the perceived economic risks of aggressive climate action.

    The Conservatives: Axing the rebate isn’t enough

    On the opposite end of the political spectrum, federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made axing the carbon rebate a central part of his platform.

    Framing the carbon rebate as an economic penalty, Poilievre has played into populist sentiments by promising to “axe the tax” and relieve financial pressures on Canadian families and businesses.

    However, even if the Conservatives are successful in eliminating the carbon rebate, they still face the challenge of needing a comprehensive climate policy that lowers emissions and meets Canada’s Paris Agreement targets. Poilievre has said he would not withdraw Canada from the accord, but he hasn’t addressed how he would meet Canada’s commitments.

    Poilievre’s populist rhetoric may resonate with voters who feel economically squeezed, but it’s unlikely to be enough to win over voters concerned about the climate crisis — especially as he has voted against environmental and climate action in Parliament over 400 times in his career, a point his opponents will be sure to raise repeatedly.

    For the Conservatives, the real challenge will be how to present a climate policy that appeals to both economic conservatives, who prioritize fiscal responsibility, and environmental conservatives, who are concerned about the future of the planet.

    Poilievre will need to clearly articulate how his policies will preserve Canada’s environmental future without stifling economic growth or inflating costs for the average Canadian.

    NDP and Green Party

    A key piece of the future of climate policy in Canada will be the NDP and Green Party, who are generally considered left-of-centre parties alongside the governing Liberals.

    The NDP, which can siphon progressive votes away from the Liberals — which sometimes benefits Conservatives — have been clear as mud when it comes to their climate policy for the next election.

    NDP leader Jagmeet Singh rescinded his party’s long-standing support for the Liberal carbon rebate in April 2024, but has not yet said what his party would put in its place.

    Meanwhile, the Green Party, which has historically played a less significant role in electoral outcomes in terms of vote splitting, has generally maintained its support for the carbon rebate. Its website suggests the party supports the polluter-pays principle. However, the Greens have yet to take a clear stance on the shifting climate grounds on which this election could partially be fought.

    Political communication the key to success

    In the coming years, the future of climate policy in Canada will be less about crafting the perfect policy and more about crafting a message that addresses how people are feeling.

    The Liberal Party has been open about the demise of the carbon rebate being a combination of a lack of their own effective communication strategy, mixed with harmful disinformation campaigns that led to the demise of their signature climate policy.

    For the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens alike, the road to effective climate policy will lie in this communication. Political leaders will need to balance ambition and pragmatism, ensuring their policies align with Canadians’ economic interests.

    With 71 per cent of Canadians suggesting they want the next government to do more to address climate change, leaders who can articulate a vision for a sustainable, prosperous future while addressing the immediate concerns of Canadians will be the ones who have the best chance of winning the public’s trust — and the next election.

    Andrew Heffernan is affiliated with the Liberal Party of Canada.

    ref. How political leaders communicate climate policy will be a defining factor this election – https://theconversation.com/how-political-leaders-communicate-climate-policy-will-be-a-defining-factor-this-election-251990

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Could bullying be an evolutionary trait?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Tony Volk, Professor, Child and Youth Studies, Brock University

    Given the seriousness of the consequences of bullying for its victims, it behooves us all to take a good, hard look at why so many people continue to bully. (Shutterstock)

    Bullying is a serious problem that impacts hundreds of millions of young people across the world each year. Defined as the goal-directed, harmful abuse of a power imbalance, bullying can cause serious, long-term physical and mental health outcomes for victims.

    As a result, countries around the world have mobilized anti-bullying efforts. Unfortunately, these efforts have had relatively little impact on bullying worldwide.

    Why? One reason might be that bullying is, at least in part, an evolutionary adaptation that offers adolescent perpetrators benefits, like popularity, resources and even dates and sex.

    But do these benefits extend beyond adolescence? This is what we set out to test at Brock University’s Research on Aggression and Victimization Experiences group. In particular, we wanted to know if the earlier and more frequent dating and sex that adolescent bullies experienced translated into having more children in later life.

    Children of bullies may learn how to be bullies themselves, through directly experiencing bullying from their parents or through indirectly watching their parents bully others.
    (Shutterstock)

    An evolutionary trait?

    There is very little data on whether bullying benefits like popularity or sex extend beyond adolescence, but early data suggested that might be the case. We sought to replicate that research using two studies.

    The first was a longitudinal study of adolescents: approximately 600 Canadian boys and girls from age 14 until their mid-20s. The second was a retrospective study of more than 500 North American adults ages 18-35. We found that adolescents who bullied others reported having children earlier and having more children in total, compared to adolescents who did not engage in bullying.

    While we note that a complete study should entail following adults into their mid-40s (the very end of most child births), we wanted to compile data now rather than waiting another 15-20 years for our longitudinal sample to mature. That means that while we can’t rule out that non-bullies might catch up with later reproduction, the data clearly shows that onset of reproduction is tied closely to total reproduction.

    Is having children early, and more often, a good thing? Given that bullying does appear to be partly due to evolved genetics (with the environment still playing a pivotal role in its expression), reproduction is the ultimate currency of evolution. Passing on genes is, quite literally, the biological meaning of life. So this is strong evidence for the theory that bullying is, at least in part, an evolutionarily successful strategy in some contexts.

    Socially, bullies are also more likely to be in the romantic relationship that is typically required to have children. We believe this is because bully’s power is related to potentially positive attributes, like attractiveness, strength and even social skills.

    Our yet-to-be published data also indicates that former bullies end up investing more energy into their children than average parents. Think of the hockey or soccer parents yelling on the sidelines, bullying their child’s coach, referees or other players in order to benefit their own child. Bullying’s links with parenting go beyond purely quantitative considerations and impact both mating success and parental effort.

    If bullying offers benefits, we want to reduce, replace and redirect those benefits.
    (Shutterstock)

    Why does this matter?

    It matters because it helps explain why bullying is so ubiquitous and hard to prevent. Bullying appears to offer meaningful benefits to those who use it and that’s critical information if parents, teachers, schools and governments want to come up with strategies for preventing it.

    What might some of those strategies look like? If bullying offers benefits, we want to reduce, replace and redirect those benefits. We can do so by getting peers to not reward bullies with the attention and popularity that they desire. We can replace benefits with costs by pointing out that while bullies gain popularity, they lose likeability. People might fear the bully’s power, but they generally don’t like them.

    Finally, we can try to teach adolescents to replace bullying with more prosocial behaviour that might have equal or better outcomes with respect to peer support.

    This also matters because our data shows bullying as a potentially intergenerational problem. We know that violence can be transmitted from parents to their children. It is possible that children of bullies will learn how to be bullies themselves, through directly experiencing bullying from their parents or through indirectly watching their parents bully others.

    This generational transmission might very well be another reason why bullying is so hard to prevent — because it starts in the home. Given the seriousness of the consequences of bullying for its victims, we must all to take a good, hard look at why so many people continue to bully, or support bullies, so that we can understand how we to best stop this toxic and damaging pattern of behaviour.

    Tony Volk receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    ref. Could bullying be an evolutionary trait? – https://theconversation.com/could-bullying-be-an-evolutionary-trait-251237

    MIL OSI – Global Reports