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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Brain vitrification’: new research shows how the Vesuvius eruption turned a man’s brain to glass

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Zarmati, Senior Lecturer in Humanities and Social Sciences Education, Faculty of Education, University of Tasmania

    A fragment of vitrified brain found at Herculaneum. Guido Giordano et al. / Scientific Reports

    A young man killed in the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 CE was likely overcome by a fast-moving cloud of gas at a temperature of more than 500°C in a process that transformed fragments of his brain into glass, according to new research.

    The man’s remains were discovered in 1961, and in 2020 researchers confirmed that parts of his brain had been turned into glass. This is only example of vitrified brain matter found to date at any archaeological site.

    The new study, led by Guido Giordano of Roma Tre University and published in Scientific Reports, explains how the unusual sequence of rapid heating and cooling required to turn organic matter into glass may have occurred.

    Pompeii’s less famous neighbour

    The city of Pompeii is one of the most famous archaeological sites in Italy and the world. Fewer people know about its smaller neighbour, Herculaneum, which was also destroyed by the devastating eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 CE.

    Herculaneum was settled during the sixth century BCE by Greek traders who named it after the Greek hero Herakles (whom the Romans called Hercules). By the first century CE, it had developed into a typical Roman town.

    The excavated ruins of Herculaneum today. Mount Vesuvius can be seen in the background.
    WitR / Shutterstock

    Built on a grid plan, Herculaneum boasted a forum, theatre, elaborate bath complexes, multi-storey buildings and luxurious private seafront villas with spectacular views over the Bay of Naples.

    The town’s population is estimated to have been around 5,000 people at the time of the eruption. They consisted of wealthy Roman citizens, merchants, artisans, and current and freed slaves. About 7 kilometres to the east, Mount Vesuvius loomed.

    A tale of two destructions

    Although Pompeii and Herculaneum were both destroyed, their experiences of the eruption were different.

    Located about 8km southeast of Vesuvius, Pompeii was violently pelted by falling pumice and ash for about 12 hours before its final destruction by what are called “pyroclastic surges”: fast-moving, turbulent clouds filled with hot gases, ash and steam. Pompeii’s end arrived some 18–20 hours after the eruption began.

    Herculaneum’s destruction came much sooner. During the first hours it experienced light ash and pumice fall. Most of the population is believed to have left during this time.

    Then, about 12 hours after the eruption began, in the early hours of the morning, Herculaneum was engulfed by a swift-moving, deadly pyroclastic surge. The deadly cloud of gas, ash and rock swept over the town at speeds greater than 150km per hour. Anyone who had not already escaped died rapidly and violently as the town was buried.

    A rain of ash, a sudden heat

    Casts of the bodies of victims found at Pompeii.
    Lancevortex / Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    Because of the differences in how the eruption hit the two towns, those who died in each were preserved in different ways.

    At Pompeii, victims were buried under ash that hardened around their bodies. This allowed archaeologist Giuseppe Fiorelli to develop a technique in the 1860s for creating the now-famous plaster casts that dramatically preserved the victims’ final positions at the moment of death.

    At Herculaneum, extreme heat (400–500°C) from pyroclastic surges caused instant death. As a result, we see skeletal remains with signs of thermal shock: skulls fractured from boiling brain tissue and rapidly carbonised flesh.

    Victims found in boat houses and along the shore at Herculaneum in the 1980s appear to have died quickly while waiting to escape by sea.

    ‘The custodian’

    In 1961, Italian archaeologist Amedeo Maiuri discovered a skeleton in a small room of the College of the Augustales, a public building dedicated to worship of the emperor. The victim was lying face-down on the charred remains of a wooden bed.

    Maiuri identified the person as male and about 20 years old, and dubbed him “the custodian” of the Augustales. What was unusual about this skeleton was the appearance of glassy, black material scattered within the cranial cavity, something archaeologists had not seen before at either Herculaneum or Pompeii.

    The carbonised remains of ‘the custodian’ found at Herculaneum.
    Guido Giordano et al. / Scientific Reports

    In 2020, a scientific team led by anthropologist PierPaolo Petrone and volcanologist Guido Giordano conducted the first study of the glassy material using a scanning electron microscope and a neural network image-processing tool. They identified traces of the victim’s brain cells, axons and myelin in the well-preserved sample.

    Petrone and Giordano concluded that the conversion of the man’s brain tissue into glass was the result of its sudden exposure to scorching volcanic ash followed by a rapid drop in temperature.

    Brain of glass

    The follow-up study, released today in Scientific Reports, provides a more detailed analysis of the vitrification process. The scientists estimate the temperature at which the brain transformed into glass had to be above 510°C, followed by rapid cooling.

    The researchers propose the following scenario to describe the victim’s death and explain how his brain was vitrified.

    The victim died when he was engulfed by the fast-moving, extremely hot ash cloud of the pyroclastic surge. His brain rapidly heated to a temperature exceeding 510°C. The thick bones of the skull may have protected the brain tissue from turning to gas and vaporising.

    Fragments of the man’s brain were turned into glass by a very particular process of rapid heating and cooling.
    Guido Giordano et al. / Scientific Reports

    Within minutes, the ash cloud dissipated and the temperature quickly dropped to around 510°C, a temperature suitable for vitrification. The researchers also believe the fact the brain was broken into small pieces allowed it to cool quickly and therefore vitrify.

    In the final phase of the eruption, Herculaneum was buried by thick, lower-temperature deposits that preserved what remained of the man’s body in cement-like material. The vitrification resulted in the preservation of complex neural structures such as neurons and axons.

    This research makes a significant contribution to scientific knowledge. After centuries of archaeological research, this is still the only known example of human brain matter preserved by vitrification.

    Louise Zarmati does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Brain vitrification’: new research shows how the Vesuvius eruption turned a man’s brain to glass – https://theconversation.com/brain-vitrification-new-research-shows-how-the-vesuvius-eruption-turned-a-mans-brain-to-glass-250918

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘He knows how to make sure that there is no evidence’: when your domestic violence abuser is a police officer

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ellen Reeves, Lecturer in Criminology, University of Liverpool

    Traci Hahn/Shutterstock

    People experiencing domestic violence are often urged to report their abuse to police. But what if your abuser is a police officer?

    Our new research, drawing on 17 interviews with victim-survivors from two studies and published in the journal Violence Against Women, examined the challenges faced by victim-survivors in this situation.

    ‘He knows how to make sure that there is no evidence’

    Victim-survivors told us their abusers often initially used their police role to project a “safe” image. Later, however, many perpetrators were able to draw on their police training and skills in control, surveillance and investigation to abuse and entrap their partners. One interviewee said:

    He is a state-funded, trained master manipulator.

    Police also have access to weapons, and importantly, knowledge about how domestic violence evidence is collected. One interviewee said:

    They’re doing things that they believe they can get away with or that they know they can get away with […] Police offenders are smarter than that and they’re looking for these little insidious ways to skirt the system.

    One person who experienced coercive control from her police officer father-in-law said:

    He knows how to make sure that there is no evidence.

    ‘The people coming to interview me are his colleagues’

    Victim-survivors told us they faced many barriers when seeking help.

    Some victim-survivors had moved away from family and friends for the perpetrator’s job and only socialised with other “police families”, leaving them isolated.

    One person said her perpetrator:

    used to bitch about DVs, like just how it’s that victim’s moment of 15  minutes of fame, a moment of attention.

    This made some victim-survivors reluctant to report abuse.

    When they did report abuse, many encountered police reluctance or refusal to take action against “one of their own”. One person said:

    I tried to report his stalking to the local police station. The moment I mentioned the name, I was pretty much told to get the fuck out.

    Other victim-survivors we interviewed said:

    I had to report at the police station where he works, where everybody knows everybody […] So the people coming to interview me are his colleagues […] You can’t trust them, you don’t feel safe, and even the police stations nearby, it’s still regional and they still work with each other.

    They just had a chat to him and he went, “No, that didn’t happen” and then that was it, he just got more and more and more empowered.

    Some victim-survivors in our study felt no amount of evidence was sufficient to see the perpetrator charged or convicted. One told us:

    Every time I spoke to a solicitor, they’d say, “Oh, well. You’ll have such a – you’ll have a far higher threshold to prove anything because he’s a police officer, and magistrates don’t like giving orders against police officers because they get made non-operational.”

    In some cases, the police perpetrator had the victim-survivor arrested or subjected to a domestic violence intervention order. One victim-survivor recounted:

    He’d wake you up all night, he’d break in, he’d destroy property, intimidation. He did do an assault but it wasn’t an assault — it didn’t leave a mark, but then he said that I had dug my fingernails into his hand and that’s what I was charged on the basis of. Minor, minor injury that I actually saw him do […] So I ended up with assault occasioning an actual bodily harm over that.

    What do you do when your abuser is a police officer?
    ymgerman/Shutterstock

    ‘I can call the police now if I want and get you sectioned’

    Some interviewees told us police officers can use police databases to get information (such as location) about the victim-survivor.

    In one case, a fellow police officer drove the perpetrator to the victim-survivor’s “secure” location.

    Police perpetrators can also draw on their knowledge and connection with broader formal institutions. One interviewee told us:

    He was convincing me that I had a mental health issue. He’d get me to a point where I’d be sobbing because he’d tell me everything that was wrong with me and berate me and then say, “I can call the police now if I want and get you sectioned and you have to go to [mental health facility] for the night”.

    Many interviewees expressed frustration that family violence cases where the perpetrator was a police officer are often not referred to Professional Standards Command, an internal police oversight body operating in most state and territory police forces.

    Calls for genuine accountability and independence

    Many victim-survivors interviewed said police perpetrators were not – in their experience – likely to be held accountable. One told us:

    Police sought [an intervention order] for my protection and this was granted for 12 months. He has his weapon taken from him, then returned two weeks later.

    Another said:

    He didn’t get sacked, they let him resign […] and now he’s on a nice cushy pension for the rest of his life.

    Another participant said her perpetrator was simply moved to another location.

    Cases were often handed back and forth between different police stations, Professional Standards Command, and other independent or semi-independent police bodies. There was often no transparency in how decisions were made and little – if any – communication with the victim-survivor about the progression of their case.

    Legal or professional repercussions were rare and minimal. They also often failed to stop the abuse, and allowed the perpetrator to keep their job.

    Some state and territory police forces, including Victoria Police and Tasmania Police, now have specific police officer-involved domestic violence policies.

    For example, Professional Standards Command in Victoria has a Sexual Offences and Family Violence Unit to investigate allegations that involve Victoria Police employees accused of family violence, sexual assault, serious sexual harassment and predatory behaviour.

    Victim-survivors welcomed this but expressed concern these new dedicated teams may remain vulnerable to the “boy’s club mentality” and information leaks.

    Ultimately, broader police responses to gender-based violence cannot improve while a problematic police culture persists.

    The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

    Ellen Reeves has received funding for family violence related research from the Australian Institute of Criminology, the Australian Research Council and Respect Victoria.

    Kate has received funding for family violence related research from a range of federal and state government and non-government sources. Currently, Kate receives funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS), the South Australian government, Safe Steps, Australian Childhood Foundation, and 54 Reasons. This piece is written by Kate Fitz-Gibbon in her role at Monash University and is wholly independent of Kate Fitz-Gibbon’s role as chair of Respect Victoria and membership on the Victorian Children’s Council.

    Sandra Walklate has received funding from the Australian Institute of Criminology and the Australian Research Council for family violence relayed research.

    Silke Meyer has received federal and state government funding for research and evaluation. She currently receives research funding from Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS), the Queensland government and non-government organisations.

    – ref. ‘He knows how to make sure that there is no evidence’: when your domestic violence abuser is a police officer – https://theconversation.com/he-knows-how-to-make-sure-that-there-is-no-evidence-when-your-domestic-violence-abuser-is-a-police-officer-250754

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Farming cooperatives can get a bad environmental rap, but they can also be a force for good

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stefan Korber, Senior Lecturer in Innovation and Entrepreneurship, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Shutterstock

    It might have surprised some people when the United Nations made 2025 the International Year of Cooperatives and praised the “significant role cooperatives play in advancing the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals”.

    Because cooperatives certainly have their critics. Economically, cooperative principles such as democratic ownership and governance are sometimes linked to inefficiency, low competitiveness and conservative decision-making.

    Environmentally, agricultural cooperatives can be portrayed as ecologically suspect and immune to effective regulation. New Zealand’s cooperative dairy giant Fonterra, for example, has been labelled “New Zealand’s worst climate polluter” by Greenpeace due to the methane emissions and effluent its cows produce.

    Obviously there is a major political dimension to that argument. But our recent research suggests agricultural cooperatives can also play a positive role when it comes to sustainable development – precisely because of their inherently diverse and democratic structure.

    Cooperatives are basically associations of individuals or businesses who voluntarily join to meet common economic, social or cultural needs. Jointly owned and democratically controlled, their profits are distributed among members rather than external shareholders.

    We interviewed individuals – from farmers to top-level managers and directors – in three New Zealand agricultural cooperatives. We wanted to shed more light on how their model can work to address one of the most pressing challenges New Zealand faces: sustainable land and water use.

    Spreading innovative ideas

    The three horticultural and dairy co-ops in our study collectively employ around 800 staff and are part of important value chains that connect New Zealand farmers to foreign markets. Industry experts described them as especially innovative in tackling sustainability challenges.

    For decades, industrialised agriculture has exacerbated land degradation by draining natural aquifers for farming, polluting land and water with effluent runoff, and creating food safety concerns about chemical residues.

    However, the co-ops in our study have developed methods and approaches to respond to these problems by enabling collaboration between members and external stakeholders. They also leverage some good old “number 8 wire” thinking from their farmers.

    First, organised workshops enable members to learn about the latest policy requirements and how customer expectations are changing. Instead of presenting ready-made solutions, the cooperatives support their farmers to experiment with novel ideas in response to identified problems.

    Motivated by increased awareness of ecological issues, some farmers came up with pioneering solutions, such as novel effluent systems, that made a positive environmental impact and saved money.

    Because of their networked structure, cooperatives can help innovative ideas spread rapidly across the broader membership. Farmers take pivotal roles, acting as champions and “thought leaders” to promote new ideas on roadshows and at field days.

    Networked learning: farmers become ‘thought leaders’ within cooperatives, spreading knowledge and innovative ideas.
    Shutterstock

    Building collaboration and trust

    Secondly, our co-ops ensured solutions developed on the farm held up to scientific scrutiny. They established working groups where researchers from public research institutes collaborated with farmers to develop solutions that worked for everyone.

    The most promising ideas even receive funding to conduct on-farm trials to test their real-world application, and that they meet the practical requirements of farmers.

    Explaining why getting farmers and scientists in the same room was vital, one cooperative manager told us:

    A lot of farmers often see science as purely academic and not practical. So, giving the farmers a say in that whole process is vital. You’ve got to instil that trust […] that’s when you are getting results.

    Third, the cooperatives codify novel agricultural methods into best-practice guidelines and audit them regularly. By combining these efforts, cooperatives can achieve widespread acceptance of new farming practices that are scientifically validated but also practical.

    Power in the collective

    Ultimately, our findings show large-scale sustainable transformation rests on finding ways to orchestrate the efforts of many individuals and organisations towards a common goal.

    To be sure, we are not saying some cooperatives and their members don’t also contribute to climate change. But we are suggesting they can play a more positive and proactive role than typically assumed.

    A lot of attention these days is paid to investor-owned, multinational corporations that seek to tackle complex challenges with technical solutions. Similarly, small-scale “ecopreneurial” initiatives that make a difference locally often find media and public favour.

    But it’s questionable whether single organisations, small or large, can galvanise the large-scale changes contemporary challenges demand.

    Cooperatives, on the other hand, are inherently diverse. They can represent the interests of local communities better than organisations controlled by often distant shareholders.

    As such, they are ideally placed to coordinate and facilitate the collaborative solutions needed to develop and implement sustainable transformation.

    The author acknowledges his colleagues in this research project: Lisa Callagher (University of Auckland), Frank Siedlok (University of St Andrews) and Ziad Elsahn (Lancaster University).

    Stefan Korber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Farming cooperatives can get a bad environmental rap, but they can also be a force for good – https://theconversation.com/farming-cooperatives-can-get-a-bad-environmental-rap-but-they-can-also-be-a-force-for-good-250905

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: First Vegas, then the world? Why the NRL is eyeing international markets

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney

    This weekend, Australia’s National Rugby League (NRL) continues to trumpet its now annual pilgrimage to open its season in Las Vegas.

    While it’s only the second year of a five-year arrangement, the NRL claims its Vegas experiment has been a great success at a time when the league has been in excellent health on and off the field.

    But why is the Australian league hosting games in Las Vegas? And has this experiment paid dividends?

    The NRL has made the bold decision to play games at Las Vegas.

    The NRL’s Vegas play

    There are a few reasons behind the NRL’s Vegas venture, with money at the heart of it.

    It’s partly about future TV revenue and trying to grab a slice of the US sports gambling market.

    And then there’s sponsors – it’s allowed the NRL to fish in the larger US pond in terms of corporate involvement in the game.

    According to NRL CEO Andrew Abdo:

    Outside of the benefit we get here domestically, in America we’ve now got sponsors that are incremental. We would not have had these sponsors had we not been growing in America. We’ve got a successful travel experience for fans, and we’ve got incremental subscriptions on Watch NRL, so you’ve got real revenue coming in which allows to us to now invest in expansion, and invest in a better product here.

    The move is also part of a grand vision to grow the game internationally.

    The NRL has announced a team from Papua New Guinea will join the league in 2028. It is also aiming for more integration with the Super League in England, perhaps one day eyeing franchises in the US and the Pacific.

    The NRL is also conscious of the US National Football League’s venture into Melbourne in 2026 and the competition that could bring for Pacific talent.



    Read more:
    It’s the most American of sports, so why is the NFL looking to Melbourne for international games?

    There may also be some football diplomacy at play. For example, some Sharks players visited the Los Angles firefighters who fought the recent wildfires for some lessons on leadership and crisis management.

    What happened last year?

    The Vegas venture started a year ago with the Sydney Roosters playing the Brisbane Broncos and the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles playing the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a groundbreaking double-header.

    These matches were the first NRL regular season games held outside Australia and New Zealand.

    The crowd at Allegiant Stadium, which holds 65,000 fans, surpassed all expectations, with 40,746 turning up when about 25,000 were expected.

    According to Steve Hill, CEO of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, more than 14,000 fans flew from Australia for the games and many Aussie expats living in the US also made the trip.

    In terms of TV audiences in Australia, the experiment was a big hit.

    The Manly-South Sydney clash was the most-watched NRL game ever on Fox Sports, with 838,000 fans tuning in. The Roosters-Broncos contest drew a Fox Sports audience of 786,000.

    According to NRL chairman Peter V’Landys:

    There was a lot of success in Vegas last year that we didn’t even plan, and for me that was record viewership in Australia and […] record attendances at pubs and clubs.

    Stateside reaction

    Of course a lot of Aussies tuned in, but how about US viewers?

    Around 61,000 tuned into Manly-South Sydney while 44,000 watched the Roosters and Broncos, which is well below the threshold of 100,000 viewers for profitable sports broadcasting, according to TV ratings experts Sports Media Watch in the US.

    The NRL set up fan zones and other activities in the build-up to the games in Las Vegas to attract US fans and entertain the visting Aussie tourists.

    This year there will be even more on offer: there are four games instead of two, with the NRL bringing over the Canberra Raiders and the New Zealand Warriors, and reigning four-time premiers the Penrith Panthers and the Cronulla Sharks.

    In addition, there’s an English Super League game, with the Wigan Warriors taking on Warrington Wolves, as well as an Australia-England women’s Test match.

    Is it worth it?

    So, has it been worth all the expense for the NRL?

    According to V’Landys, the competition’s bottom line has been largely unaffected despite the significant costs of the games:

    This year there’s a possibility that we’ll actually return a profit on Vegas and if not, it’ll be a small loss.

    But he’s not leaving anything to chance. In fact, in a televised plea on US TV show Fox and Friends, V’Landys invited President Donald Trump to attend the game.

    Will the president attend? Unlike a major US event like the Superbowl, where Trump was the first sitting president to attend, there’s not a big domestic constituency for rugby league, so chances are he won’t join the revelry in Vegas.

    But it sounds like the NRL, on current projections, won’t need him.

    With the introduction of a new team in PNG in 2028 and a possible 19th outfit in Perth soon after, the NRL has showcased an impressive vision to take the game into new markets.

    Even if a tiny proportion of the US market jumps on board rugby league, it can only help take the game closer to to its goal of being the undisputed number one sport in Australia.

    Tim Harcourt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. First Vegas, then the world? Why the NRL is eyeing international markets – https://theconversation.com/first-vegas-then-the-world-why-the-nrl-is-eyeing-international-markets-250622

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cook Islands government to seek update on China’s naval exercises

    By Talaia Mika of the Cook Islands News

    As concerns continue to emerge over China’s “unusual” naval exercises in the Tasman Sea, raising eyebrows from New Zealand and Australia, the Cook Islands government was questioned for an update in Parliament.

    This follows the newly established bilateral relations between the Cook Islands and China through a five-year agreement and Prime Minister Mark Brown’s accusations of the New Zealand media and experts looking down on the Cook Islands.

    A Chinese Navy convoy held two live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand on Friday and Saturday, prompting passenger planes to change course mid-flight and pressuring officials in both countries.

    Akaoa MP Robert Heather queried the Prime Minister whether the government had spoken to Chinese embassy officials in New Zealand for a response in this breach of Australian waters?

    “One thing I do know is that just in the recent weeks, New Zealand navy was part of an exercise with the Australians and Americans conducting naval exercises in the South China Sea and perhaps that’s why China decided to exercise naval exercises in the international waters off the coast of Australia,” he said.

    “And I also know that in the last two weeks, the government of Australia and China signed a security treaty between the two countries.

    “However in due course, we may be informed more about these naval exercises that these countries conduct in international waters off each other’s coasts.”

    According to Brown, he had not been briefed by any government whether it’s New Zealand, Australia, or China about these developments.

    Asking for an update
    He added that while the Minister of Foreign Affairs Elikana was currently in the Solomon Islands attending a forum on fisheries together with other ministers of the Pacific Region, he would ask him about whether he could make any inquiries to find out whether the government could be updated or briefed on this issue.

    Meanwhile, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said after a meeting with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing, that lack of sufficient warning from China about the live-fire exercises was a “failure” in the New Zealand-China relationship.

    A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defence, Wu Qian explained that China’s actions were entirely in accordance with international law and established practices and would not impact on aviation safety.

    He added that the live-fire training was conducted with repeated safety notices that had been issued in advance.

    Republished with permission from the Cook Islands News.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump mineral deal with Ukraine offers hope but little in the way of security

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    If you want to get an idea of how Donald Trump’s mind works (and this can change from day to day, as we know), it’s worth taking a look at his TruthSocial website. As I write, beneath a video pinned to the top of his feed featuring an AI-generated vision of “Trump Gaza” (complete with casinos, shopping malls and a giant golden statue of the man himself), can be found a clue to the frenetic presidential activity of the past month.

    In a post threatening legal action against any writer or publisher whose “Fake books” offends, Trump refers to himself as “a President who is being given credit for having the Best Opening Month of any President in history”. Apparently George Washington is second on that list – and, given that Potus #1 took 33 days to sign the first bill passed under the new US constitution, you could say Potus #47 has left him trailing in his wake.

    Of course #47 appears to face fewer constitutional constraints than his illustrious predecessor.

    Sadly, though, Trump will be unable to include in this list the deal he has reportedly just struck with Volodymyr Zelensky which swaps a share in Ukraine’s mineral wealth for an as yet unspecified security guarantee.

    Precise details of this deal aren’t confirmed. But we’re told that the original US$500 billion (£394 billion) demand has been dropped in return for a share in an investment fund into which Ukraine will contribute 50% of the revenue from its mineral resources. “What better could you have for Ukraine than to be in an economic partnership with the United States?” commented US national security adviser, Mike Waltz.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    But for the sake of social media, a deal’s a deal and can be trumpeted as such. Zelensky is heading to Washington to sign the agreement and we shall find out in due course whether or not this will assure Ukraine’s future security. There is still the actual peace deal with Russia to work out, after all.

    Another landmark foreign policy deal brokered by the Trump White House was with the Taliban in 2020 and concerned the future of Afghanistan. And, as Philip A. Berry writes, Zelensky can take little comfort in that.

    Berry, a research fellow at King’s College London, who has extensive experience of working with anti-narcotics agencies in Afghanistan, points to similarities in the way Trump managed negotiations with the Taliban and his deal-making with Ukraine and discussions so far with Russia. The Afghan government was largely cut out of the negotiations, as Trump has threatened to do to Ukraine with regards a peace deal. And like the current situation, Trump’s regular public utterances seriously undermined the talks. Berry concludes:

    Trump’s Taliban deal excluded the US’s ally, conceded too much to an adversary, and was partly motivated by the perception of wasting American dollars in a far-off land. Unfortunately, these hallmarks are all too evident in the president’s stance on Ukraine. Zelensky can only hope that things work out better this time around.



    Read more:
    How Trump the ‘master deal-maker’ failed when it came to negotiating with the Taliban in Afghanistan

    Trust will be absolutely vital if the US and Ukraine are to conclude this agreement and, more critically, if they are to reach terms with Russia that will guarantee the “just peace deal” that Zelensky craves, writes David J. Wilcox of the University of Birmingham. Wilcox points to the relationship of trust built by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s which paved a way for a series of nuclear weapons reduction treaties between the Soviet Union and the US.

    It has just been announced that preparations are being made for “expert-level” talks between the US and Russia, but, as Wilcox points out, “any negotiations to end the war will rest ultimately on those two states and their leaders”. And at present, nothing has been publicly said about whether Putin and Zelensky have even agreed to meet.



    Read more:
    Ukraine war: why negotiations depend on trust

    Meanwhile, what do we know about Ukraine’s mineral wealth and what sort of return Trump can expect for the US? Dafydd Townley, an expert in international security at the University of Portsmouth, stresses that Trump’s recent decision to impose punitive tariffs against Beijing has closed off China as a source of key minerals on which the US has been reliant up until now.

    It’s a clue, writes Townley, as to why the US president seemed very keen on bringing his deal-making facilities to bear on Greenland, which also has large deposits of desirable minerals.

    Interestingly, as Townley points out, Russia has taken control of about 20% of Ukraine’s mineral deposits under the territory it now controls (which America would be open to exploiting according to an offer made by Vladimir Putin’s aides at the recent talks in Saudi Arabia).

    It’s also worth noting that Ukraine’s extraction sector has suffered over the past decade from chronic under-investment, thanks to the ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. As a result it could be some years before the US gets what it needs from the deal it has reportedly struck with Kyiv.



    Read more:
    Why Trump really wants Ukraine’s minerals — China has put theirs off limits

    Three long years

    Amid all the shuttle diplomacy and wheeler-dealing taking place around them, at the start of the week the embattled Ukrainian population marked the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. They were joined by more than a dozen foreign leaders who gathered in Kyiv to express their continuing support.

    As the conflict moves into its fourth year, Stefan Wolff, an international security expert at the University of Birmingham, takes a look at the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict in the era of Trump.

    He sees worrying parallels with the Munich conference of 1938 which sealed Czechoslovakia’s fate. Not, as you might expect, in terms of Trump’s apparent appeasement of Putin – but because, like Munich, talks on the fate of a sovereign nation are being held without that nation being present. Wolff writes:

    There is every indication that Putin is unlikely to stop in or with Ukraine. And it is worth remembering that the second world war started 11 months after Neville Chamberlain thought he had secured “peace in our time”.

    This, of course, is the prospect that has both terrified and stiffened the resolve of Ukraine’s western allies. But Wolff also points to limitations in this analogy, in that he doesn’t believe that Trump is acting out of fear that he is in a weaker position than Putin, as did Neville Chamberlain and the French prime minister Édouard Daladier.

    It’s rather that Trump sees himself as part of a triumvirate of world leaders, along with Putin and China’s president, Xi Jinping, who have the opportunity to carve out spheres of influence and establish a new world order based on the exercise of raw power.



    Read more:
    Ukraine war: Trump is not trying to appease Putin – he has a vision of a new US-China-Russia order

    Richard Youngs, meanwhile, sees the dawning of what he calls a “no world order”. Youngs, an international relations expert at the University of Warwick, sees an era of flux, where the stability of the past 80 years is disintegrating without anything stable or concrete to replace it.

    Several European leaders, including Keir Starmer who is today visiting Trump in Washington, are due to meet this Sunday ahead of a bigger defence summit in Brussels next week, to continue discussions about how to respond to the changing Ukraine situation. Reports suggest a European defence bank or fund that would include the UK may be on the cards.

    Youngs certainly believes that European powers will need to consider practical measures in order to bind themselves into more cohesive relationship and ensure their continuing autonomy. One of those will be in boosting their defence capabilities – something that is now gathering pace in the face of US pressure.

    But more radical thinking will be needed, writes Youngs, who has coined the term “geoliberalism” as a way of visualising the sort of thinking about the values and certainties that can bind Europe together in the face of global turbulence.



    Read more:
    No world order: Europe needs more radical thinking for the Trump era

    Alex Titov, meanwhile, believes that for all the talk of “deals” to end the violence, both sides have their reasons for wanting to continue, given that their stated positions remain diametrically opposed and irreconcilable.

    Russia’s battlefield progress, while steady, is slow and there’s no real prospect of it forcing a capitulation from Kyiv in the next 12 months. But – particularly with the radically different US position under Donald Trump, neither is there any chance of Russia being forced off the territory it has captured. Ominously, Titov concludes, this could mean that “the bloodiest battles of the war are yet to come”.



    Read more:
    Ukraine war three years on: the bloodiest battles may be still to come

    A new way of governing

    After a whirlwind first month, Trump held his first cabinet meeting this week, with a special appearance from his right-hand man Elon Musk, who reportedly got to speak more than anyone else. Musk, of course, has been responsible for much of the maelstrom of activity that has caused so much disquiet and is providing a lot of work for lawyers who are pushing back against many of the new adminstration’s measures on the grounds they are unconstitutional.

    Musk, Trump and his vice-president J.D. Vance have, in turn, pushed back against judges who have issued injunctions to either halt or delay some of their measures. Musk, in a fit of pique this week when three judges halted three of the administration’s policies, complained bitterly “What is the point of having democratic elections if unelected activist ‘judges’ can override the clear will of the people? Well, that’s no democracy at all!”

    Stephen Lovell, professor of modern history at King’s College London, has been looking at the way that Trump and his team are attempting to bend the US constitution to their will, comparing their approach to that of Vladimir Putin. Putin, as we know, never saw a constitutional loophole he didn’t want to wriggle through or otherwise obliterate.



    Read more:
    Trump, Putin and the authoritarian take on constitutionalism

    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get updates directly in your inbox.

    – ref. Trump mineral deal with Ukraine offers hope but little in the way of security – https://theconversation.com/trump-mineral-deal-with-ukraine-offers-hope-but-little-in-the-way-of-security-250962

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Shuttered car factories in Australia could be repurposed to make houses faster and cheaper

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ehsan Noroozinejad, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University

    studiovin/Shutterstock

    Australia is in the grip of a severe housing shortage. Many people are finding it extremely difficult to find a place to live in the face of rising rents and property price surges. Homelessness is rising sharply. Tent cities are becoming more common.

    The federal government has pledged to encourage the building of about 1.2 million new dwellings over the five years from mid-2024. The problem is, conventional building techniques are unlikely to be able to respond to the scale of demand quickly. Conventional building is expensive and slow. Faster, cheaper construction methods are needed.

    There might be a way to accelerate the build. In recent years, car manufacturers Ford, General Motors and Toyota have shuttered their Australian factories, due to intense global competition.

    Before these factories fell silent, they were home to trained workers, advanced machinery and efficient production systems. In Australia, companies such as Hickory Group are working to turn car factories into house factories. In Japan, Toyota has been making modular housing for decades, by adapting car production line techniques.

    Scaling this approach up in Australia could simultaneously address industrial decline and housing demand.

    Can mothballed car factories really make houses?

    After years of decline, Australia’s car manufacturing industry came to an end in 2017, when Toyota and General Motors’ factories stopped mass production. Ford’s local factories closed a year earlier. It was the end of 70 years of mass production, though companies such as Premcar are still making local versions of overseas cars.

    Thousands of factory workers lost their jobs. But the effect rippled outward, as about 40,000 workers in the supply chain lost their jobs.

    These automobile factories left behind more than just empty structures.

    Most of them have not been demolished. Some still have advanced manufacturing lines. Their former workers with automation and precise engineering training might be working in different fields, such as caravan manufacturing.

    Building a house in a factory has similarities to car manufacturing. Both use modular production, in which individual parts are manufactured and then assembled into a final product.

    That’s not to say this would be easy – there would be regulatory hurdles to overcome and the factories would need an overhaul.

    One tough part is figuring out how to use modern car-building tools (such as robotics) to make components of houses. While building cars and houses share some ideas, they’re not the same.

    Bringing these factories back into production would boost the economies of states such as Victoria.

    States such as South Australia have already started down this path, turning Mitsubishi’s defunct Tonsley Park factory into an innovation precinct hosting modular construction companies such as Fusco Constructions, which will begin operations next year.

    Meanwhile, much work has been done in Australia and overseas to find ways to mass-produce housing using factories.

    Imagine thousands of individual car parts were delivered to your front yard, where workers painstakingly put the car together. This seems crazy. But it’s essentially what we do with houses, especially freestanding ones. Advocates for modern methods of construction have pointed out the inefficiencies of transporting building materials to a site and assembling them there.

    Some large-scale builders are already working to automate more of the home-building process. Besides making houses more cheaply, the benefits include centralising production around a factory, protection from weather delays, and the ability to use industrial robots.

    Car assembly lines guarantee each component is manufactured to exacting specifications. Automobile manufacturing has been transformed by new technologies, including digital twin simulations, robotics and 3D printing. But the building industry has been slower to take these up. If we can bring these technologies to bear on how we make homes, we can accelerate construction, reduce errors and cut prices.

    In fact, we are seeing some car manufacturers moving into home building. Mercedes-Benz, Bugatti, Bentley, Aston Martin and Porsche are all putting their names on high-end homes in some way, while Honda has explored manufacturing smart, low-energy homes.

    Change is coming – but slowly

    Advanced building techniques are not new to Australia. Prefab buildings are already being built on factory lines by companies such as Fleetwood, ATCO Structures and Logistics and Modscape.

    Here, building components are produced in a controlled factory setting before being delivered to the construction site for prompt assembly. Dozens of companies are working in this space. To date, however, most of these buildings will be used as schools, police stations or temporary housing for mining workers.

    Last year, the federal government set up a A$900 million fund as an incentive for state and territory governments to accelerate building approvals and take up prefab techniques. To date, the sector is struggling to scale up due to a lack of infrastructure and too few manufacturers.

    Other countries are further along the path. In Sweden, up to 84% of detached homes are made with prefabricated components, compared with about 15% in Japan and 5% in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia.

    One option is to adopt yet more advanced techniques, such as lean manufacturing and automated assembly. Both of these are well established in car-making, and could be used to increase the speed and accuracy of prefab home construction.

    What would it take to make this happen?

    Australia’s housing crisis has been years in the making. To solve it, we may need bold solutions.

    Converting old car factories into affordable home factories could help accelerate our response to the challenge – and reinvigorate industrial precincts.

    It would take work and funding to make this happen. But there are commonalities. Making prefab homes depends on precise, modular production methods that work best when automated. Transitions like these can happen.

    Dr. Ehsan Noroozinejad has received funding from both national and international organisations to support research addressing housing and climate crises. His most recent funding comes from the James Martin Institute for Public Policy. He has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada

    – ref. Shuttered car factories in Australia could be repurposed to make houses faster and cheaper – https://theconversation.com/shuttered-car-factories-in-australia-could-be-repurposed-to-make-houses-faster-and-cheaper-249709

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What are the chances an asteroid will impact Earth in 2032?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Gordon Osinski, Professor in Earth and Planetary Science, Western University

    An artist’s rendition of one of the many thousands of near-Earth objects that could potentially impact Earth in the future. (European Space Agency/P.Carril)

    For a few days in mid-February, headlines around the world buzzed about the potential for an asteroid to hit the Earth in 2032 — specifically, asteroid 2024 YR4. The chance of this impact rose to a high of 3.1 per cent on Feb. 18.

    The number has since dropped to near zero, but this news was a real-life Don’t Look Up moment, and a stark reminder of the threat that asteroid impacts pose to life on Earth.

    As a planetary geologist, my research focuses on meteorite impact craters, the scars of large asteroid and cometary impacts in Earth’s past.

    Impact Earth

    There are countless numbers of asteroids and an unknown number of comets throughout our solar system. Most of these objects date back to the very beginnings of our solar system, around 4.5 billion years ago.

    Research has identified approximately 200 locations where these asteroids or comets have struck the Earth in the past to form meteorite impact craters. It’s very rare that planetary geologists can tell whether it was an asteroid or comet that hit.

    One of the most famous of these 200 or so impact craters is the 200 km diameter Chicxulub impact crater in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. This impact wiped out 65 per cent of all species on Earth, including the dinosaurs, 66 million years ago.

    One of the most recent and best-preserved craters on Earth is the 1.2 km in diameter Meteor Crater in Arizona, which formed 50,000 years ago.

    The Meteor Crater in Arizone is one of the most recent and best-preserved craters on Earth.
    (G.Osinski), CC BY

    Millions of craters

    Two hundred craters over 4.5 billion years hardly seems like a big number or cause for concern however, this number is a tiny fraction of the actual record. Most impact craters formed on Earth have been erased due to plate tectonics, volcanic eruptions, and erosion by water, wind and ice.

    To truly appreciate how common impact craters are, we need to look to Earth’s closest neighbour, the moon. Because of its proximity, objects that can hit the moon can also hit the Earth. In fact, because the Earth is bigger, which means our gravitational attraction is higher, more asteroids and comets would have hit the Earth over the past 4.5 billion years than the moon.

    The best estimate is 1.3 million craters over one kilometre in diameter on the moon, with another 700,000 or so smaller ones.

    The dots represent a snapshot of the population of near-earth asteroids that scientists think are likely to exist. The simulated near-Earth asteroids are blue, and Earth’s orbit is green.
    (NASA/JPL-Caltech)

    Updated calculations

    Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27, 2024 by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). It was immediately recognized to be a near-Earth object (NEO). Additional telescope observations enabled astronomers to better calculate its orbit.

    In January, the probability of this asteroid hitting Earth surpassed one per cent, which triggered a series of international responses. The International Asteroid Warning Network coordinates telescopes around the world to make further observations and narrow down uncertainties in its orbit.

    An image of asteroid 2024 YR4 captured by one of the ATLAS telesopes.
    (SOURCE)

    On Feb. 18, NASA and the European Space Agency announced that the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2023 was 3.1 per cent, the highest ever recorded for an object of this size. This represents one in 32 odds. For comparison, the chance of dying in a motor vehicle crash in the United States is one per cent, or one in 95; the chances of the asteroid hitting Earth were pretty significant.

    Thankfully, the most recent estimates of the probability of impact have gone down to near zero, based on improved calculations of its orbit.

    We’re off the hook… for now.

    Potential impact

    Bruce Betts, chief planetary scientist at the Planetary Society, was quoted as saying: “If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs,” leading to asteroid 2024 YR4 being dubbed “a city-killer.”

    The average impact velocity for an asteroid on Earth is a whopping 17 km per second — this is 25 times faster than an F-35 Lightning strike fighter.

    To calculate the mass of an asteroid, we need to know its size. Estimates for 2024 YR4 range from 40 to 90 metres. If we take the upper estimate of 90 m, we can calculate the energy released at approximately nine megatons, the equivalent of the explosive energy of nine million tons of TNT. For comparison, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in Japan in 1945 was only 0.015 megatons.

    The crater formed by this 90 m asteroid would be approximately 2.7 km in diameter. This is just over twice the diameter of the Meteor Crater.

    The destruction doesn’t stop there, however. Research on nuclear weapons suggests that each megaton can destroy roughly 50 square kilometres, so this impact could destroy up to 450 square km around the crater through a fireball, supersonic ejecta and seismic shaking.

    Would this be a city killer as some reports suggested? Absolutely. With an urban area of 232 square kilometres, my hometown of London, Ont., with a population of around 420,000 would be totally destroyed.



    Read more:
    Asteroid has a very small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but a collision could devastate a city

    Actual risks

    The good news is that we estimate that the impact of a 90 m diameter asteroid will occur once in every 10,000 years. For a 40 m size asteroid, this drops to once every 1,000 years — but the destructive effects are drastically reduced. It’s worth pointing out that these numbers are very approximate, and they don’t really help us figure out when the next one might happen.

    As the story around asteroid 2024 YR4 shows, there is more good news in that we are getting better at detecting asteroids. Thanks to the coordination of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, many space agencies around the world are collaborating, with the knowledge that this is a problem for our entire planet.

    If the calculations had continued to show that the chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 was high, with enough time, an attempt to deflect the asteroid could have been attempted. In September 2022, NASA’s DART spacecraft provided the first demonstration that deflecting an asteroid from its path is possible, something that had been imagined in Hollywood movies, but not proven to be possible until then.

    Gordon Osinski receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Space Agency.

    – ref. What are the chances an asteroid will impact Earth in 2032? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-chances-an-asteroid-will-impact-earth-in-2032-250463

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Oscars 2025: who will likely win, who should win, and who barely deserves to be there

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Communications and Media, University of Notre Dame Australia

    We’ve probably all had a moment when we stopped taking the Oscars too seriously. For me, it was when Denzel Washington won best actor for Training Day (2001), a crime film in which he displays virtually none of his acting chops.

    And as popular cinema becomes uglier (it’s mostly shot on digital video now, which almost never looks as good as film) and streamers (or logistics companies such as Amazon) take over film production, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to appreciate the point of the ceremony.

    From this year’s ten nominees for best picture, The Brutalist, Conclave and I’m Still Here are good – while (most of) the other nominees are only okay.

    Some well-made films, but nothing outstanding

    Writer-director Sean Baker’s Anora is nominated for best picture this year, after already winning the Palme d’Or. It’s a moderately sweet film in the tradition of Pretty Woman – having more nudity and sex, and a disappointing ending, doesn’t automatically make it edgier. It’s too long by at least half an hour, with some okay performances.

    It’s certainly not bad, but the idea that this is one of the “best pictures” of 2024 is alarming – or would be, if I wasn’t already so cynical. Most importantly, there’s nothing formally or aesthetically compelling about it, in which case I might have forgiven the silly (anti) Cinderella story.

    Another nominee, A Complete Unknown, is similarly well-made. Timothée Chalamet gives a predictably moody performance as Bob Dylan, and it’s fun to learn something about the relationships between Dylan and musical legends Joan Baez and Pete Seeger.

    But there’s also something fundamentally weird about watching a memoir about a person as iconic as Dylan. It veers too often into the terrain of impersonation, and this is even more off-putting given Dylan is still alive. Throw in Chalamet’s (certainly accomplished) singing of Dylan’s songs, and it feels like we’re watching someone do karaoke really well.

    The Substance tries to shock and titillate the viewer with its caricature of celebrity in an era of body modification and mega-media corporations. Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley and Dennis Quaid try hard to be funny, but the whole thing plays like an undergraduate essay that makes the same point ad nauseam. Though the actors surely had fun, there’s nothing compelling about their guffawing.

    This is also the problem with messy hybrid musical-thriller Emilia Pérez, the other over-the-top genre film tipped by some to win the award.

    The film, following a cartel leader who disappears and transitions into a woman, is overly dependent on making a point about the world outside of itself. This point is so obvious that it rapidly becomes tedious, with insufficient attention given to the formal and narrative tensions and ambiguities that compel an audience to engage with a film on a serious, visceral level.

    Dune: Part Two sounds and looks good, but is more meandering than Part One in developing Herbert’s unwieldy epic. If you liked Part One, you’ll probably like Part Two, but it’s not exactly cutting-edge material.

    Nickel Boys is a low-key, sentimental rendition of Colson Whitehead’s novel about two African American boys sent to a reform school in Florida in the early 1960s, and their coming of age as they survive myriad abuses. It’s watchable, if not particularly memorable.

    Finally, Wicked is, well … Wicked. If you like the musical you may like the film (although the live aspect of musicals makes this one play better on the stage than on the screen, unlike The Wizard of Oz, which was made for the screen). In any case, it’s not ridiculously bad, even though it is too long.

    A few top contenders

    Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here – which traces the struggle of an activist in Brazil after the forced disappearance of her husband in 1970 – works well in its evocation of place and time, and should soften the heart of even the most cynical viewer.

    Based on Marcelo Rubens Paiva’s 2015 memoir, the entire film is washed over with a faint scent of nostalgia that complements the idea of failing to find, and then remembering, that which is missing.

    Conclave, adapted from Robert Harris’ novel, is another solidly made affair. It follows the political machinations of the Vatican as the Dean of Cardinals sets up a conclave to elect a new pope after the previous one dies of a heart attack.

    Ralph Fiennes is as effective and sombre as usual in the lead role as Cardinal Lawrence and various twists and turns keep us watching throughout. But one suspects the primary pleasure of the film is that it seems to offer an insider’s view of the Vatican, including all the fetishistic processes and rituals.

    Despite its serious tone, Conclave is a fun romp. And what a pleasure it is to watch Isabella Rossellini on the big screen once again.

    The strongest nominee

    The film that is most classically like a best picture nominee is The Brutalist – an epic, visually-magnificent study of the struggles of (fictional) architect László Toth, a Hungarian Jew who moves to America following the Holocaust.

    Testament to the technical accomplishments of the film, and its superb creation of a coherent world, The Brutalist runs close to four hours (thankfully with an intermission) without becoming tedious. It chugs along with the relentless momentum of a steam engine.

    Adrien Brody is charming as Toth, endowing the character with a roguish and playful quality, and the supporting cast are solid. Akin to one of Toth’s constructions (as we hear in the epilogue section), the film neither indicates nor tells us anything beyond itself.

    There may be conclusions to be drawn regarding the relationship between art, power and capitalism, but the film gives you the space to devise these yourself. The film is, in a sense, beautifully mute.

    Out of all the nominations, The Brutalist is the only one that feels like a genuine best picture contender (with something of the grandeur of classical Hollywood cinema about it). Although many critics are predicting Anora will win, The Brutalist is the strongest of the nominees.

    That said, my pick for the best film of 2024 goes to a production that didn’t get a best picture nomination (as usual). Magnus von Horn’s The Girl With the Needle is a stunning Danish expressionistic nightmare that seamlessly integrates formal experimentation with a thrilling and horrific true crime narrative.

    It is absolutely sensational – the kind of thing you never forget. Thankfully, it has been recognised through its nomination for best international feature film.

    Ari Mattes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Oscars 2025: who will likely win, who should win, and who barely deserves to be there – https://theconversation.com/oscars-2025-who-will-likely-win-who-should-win-and-who-barely-deserves-to-be-there-250783

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Eating disorders don’t just affect teen girls. The risk may go up around pregnancy and menopause too

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gemma Sharp, Professor, NHMRC Emerging Leadership Fellow & Senior Clinical Psychologist, The University of Queensland

    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Eating disorders impact more than 1.1 million people in Australia, representing 4.5% of the population. These disorders include binge eating disorder, bulimia nervosa, and anorexia nervosa.

    Meanwhile, more than 4.1 million people (18.9%) are affected by body dissatisfaction, a major risk factor for some types of eating disorders.

    But what image comes to mind first when you think of someone with an eating disorder or body image concerns? Is it a teenage girl? If so, you’re definitely not alone. This is often the image we see in popular media.

    Eating disorders and body image concerns are most common in teenage girls, but their prevalence in adults, particularly in women, aged in their 30s, 40s and 50s, is actually close behind.

    So what might be going on with girls and women in these particular age groups to create this heightened risk?

    The 3 ‘P’s

    We can consider women’s risk periods for body image issues and eating disorders as the three “P”s: puberty (teenagers), pregnancy (30s) and perimenopause and menopause (40s, 50s).

    A recent report from The Butterfly Foundation showed the three highest prevalence groups for body image concerns are teenage girls aged 15–17 (39.9%), women aged 55–64 (35.7%) and women aged 35–44 (32.6%).

    We acknowledge there’s a wide age range for when girls and women will go through these phases of life. For example, a small proportion of women will experience premature menopause before 40, and not all women will become pregnant.

    Variations in the way eating disorder symptoms are measured across different studies can make it difficult to draw direct comparisons, but here’s a snapshot of what the evidence tells us.

    Puberty

    In a review of studies looking at children aged six to adolescents aged 18, 30% of girls in this age group reported disordered eating, compared to 17% of boys. Rates of disordered eating were higher as children got older.

    Pregnancy

    During pregnancy, eating disorder prevalence is estimated at 7.5%. Almost 70% of women are dissatisfied with their body weight and figure in the post-partum period.

    Pregnancy can represent a major change in identity and self-perception.
    Pormezz/Shutterstock

    Perimenopause

    It’s estimated more than 73% of midlife women aged 42–52 are unsatisfied with their body weight. However, only a portion of these women would have been going through the menopause transition at the time of this study.

    The prevalence of eating disorders is around 3.5% in women over 40 and 1–2% in men at the same stage.

    So what’s going on?

    Although we’re not sure of the exact mechanisms underlying eating disorder and body dissatisfaction risk during the three “P”s, it’s likely a combination of factors are at play.

    These life stages involve significant reproductive hormonal changes (for example, fluctuations in oestrogen and progesterone) which can lead to increases in appetite or binge eating and changes in body composition. These changes can result in concerns about body weight and shape.

    These stages can also represent a major change in identity and self-perception. A girl going through puberty may be concerned about turning into an “adult woman” and changes in attitudes of those around her, such as unwanted sexual attention.

    Pregnancy obviously comes with significant body size and shape changes. Pregnant women may also feel their body is no longer their own.

    While social pressures to be thin can stop during pregnancy, social expectations arguably return after birth, demanding women “bounce back” to their pre-pregnancy shape and size quickly.

    Women going through menopause commonly express concerns about a loss of identity.
    In combination with changes in body composition and a perception their appearance is departing from youthful beauty ideals, this can intensify body dissatisfaction and increase the risk of eating disorders.

    These periods of life can each also be incredibly stressful, both physically and psychologically.

    For example, a girl going through puberty may be facing more adult responsibilities and stress at school. A pregnant woman could be taking care of a family while balancing work and other demands. A woman going through menopause could potentially be taking care of multiple generations (teenage children, ageing parents) while navigating the complexities of mid-life.

    Research has shown interpersonal problems and stressors can increase the risk of eating disorders.

    Body image concerns and eating disorders are not limited to teenage girls.
    transly/Unsplash, CC BY

    We need to do better

    Unfortunately most of the policy and research attention currently seems to be focused on preventing and treating eating disorders in adolescents rather than adults. There also appears to be a lack of understanding among health professionals about these issues in older women.

    In research I (Gemma) led with women who had experienced an eating disorder during menopause, participants expressed frustration with the lack of services that catered to people facing an eating disorder during this life stage. Participants also commonly said health professionals lacked education and training about eating disorders during menopause.

    We need to increase awareness among health professionals and the general public about the fact eating disorders and body image concerns can affect women of any age – not just teenage girls. This will hopefully empower more women to seek help without stigma, and enable better support and treatment.

    Jaycee Fuller from Bond University contributed to this article.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14. For concerns around eating disorders or body image visit the Butterfly Foundation website or call the national helpline on 1800 33 4673.

    Gemma Sharp receives funding from an NHMRC Investigator Grant. She is the Founding Director and Member of the Consortium for Research in Eating Disorders.

    Amy Burton and Megan Lee do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Eating disorders don’t just affect teen girls. The risk may go up around pregnancy and menopause too – https://theconversation.com/eating-disorders-dont-just-affect-teen-girls-the-risk-may-go-up-around-pregnancy-and-menopause-too-250156

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ’s barriers to economic growth: short-term thinking, political concentration and policy flip-flops

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Nicholls, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences and Public Policy, Auckland University of Technology

    Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

    Economic growth took centre stage during Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s recent State of the Nation speech.

    Yet in amongst the discussion and criticism of the government’s plans, many have got locked into a one-dimensional debate centred on reducing regulation to encourage economic growth.

    This ignores a deeper discussion on the actual sources of New Zealand’s economic growth in the 21st century and, potentially, what we need to do to shift from one model of growth to another.

    What drives growth?

    Emerging partly out of the 2007–09 global financial crisis, thinking about economic growth has become dominated by something known as the growth model framework.

    The framework contrasts countries such as Germany that base their growth on exports – partly through wage restraint – with those in which growth is led by consumption. This group includes the United Kingdom, the United States and New Zealand.

    New Zealand’s growth model

    How can this framework be used to understand economic growth in our local context?

    New Zealand’s economy is dominated by domestic demand – with the service industry making up around two-thirds of the gross domestic product, putting us squarely in the consumption-led camp.

    Local analysts have often reflected on the drivers and pitfalls of this growth model, revolving as it does around property investment and related industries such as banking and insurance.

    And yet, this is not how we tend to think of ourselves at all.

    Whether aspirational or wishful thinking, countless political speeches and policy documents refer to New Zealand as something of an export platform, a trading nation, or a (potential) knowledge-based innovator on the world stage.

    New Zealand has long viewed itself as an export economy. But economic indicators tell a different story.
    Kritsana Laroque/Shutterstock

    The politics of New Zealand’s growth model

    It is also difficult to imagine a New Zealand political leader standing up to announce how proud they are to be overseeing a service and consumption-driven economy.

    In fact, it could be argued the past couple of decades have represented a series of failures to shift the growth model from where we are to where we want to be.

    What is more, many of the barriers to doing so are political rather than strictly economic.

    The growth model perspective identifies not only the varied national growth strategies but also the coalition of political and business groups that support each model.

    Possible – but difficult – change

    Shifts in national growth models can occur. But doing so requires forging a consensus around a new or evolving growth model through political institutions or through the expansion of the growth coalition’s base to include new economic players including, in some cases, trade unions.

    Ireland, for example, underwent a major shift from the late 1980s toward a growth model infused with foreign direct investment. This happened, in part, through social partnership, where most aspects of public policy were negotiated between state, business and organised labour, along with some input from the community and voluntary sector. It was also due to an overwhelmingly centrist political culture and it’s structure of government.

    Sweden’s gradual shift toward more information-technology intensive manufacturing and the Netherlands’ to business services and finance, representing more balanced or mixed growth models, can also be traced to consensus-driven politics.

    Barriers to change

    Back in Aotearoa New Zealand, we face a series of political barriers to similar change.

    Above all, politics in New Zealand is notably short-term in nature, driven by a host of factors including the three-year electoral term. There is also an absence of an Irish or Swedish-style social partnership-type tradition in which key societal groups are included in policy negotiations that survive changes of government.

    Compounding this, power in New Zealand politics is still concentrated in the hands of the incumbent government despite the adoption of the mixed member proportional (MMP) system. This means a considerable degree of ideological yo-yoing and policy flip-flops.

    Most difficult perhaps is finding a way to override entrenched economic interests with a vested interest in the status quo.

    For example, while there is widespread support for a capital gains tax in New Zealand, implementing one has proven out of political reach.

    This is likely due, in part, to the oversized role that property plays in our economy, but also because we lack consensus-forging institutions through which to channel a will to change.

    Somehow broadening the base of support may help to address this issue, as will ensuring that the government is able to exercise its own autonomy – connected to economic interests yet able to rise above rather than relying on them to make change happen.

    Kate Nicholls does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NZ’s barriers to economic growth: short-term thinking, political concentration and policy flip-flops – https://theconversation.com/nzs-barriers-to-economic-growth-short-term-thinking-political-concentration-and-policy-flip-flops-249007

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Workplace aggression causes real harm — leaders must take action against it

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Zhanna Lyubykh, Assistant Professor, Beedie School of Business, Simon Fraser University

    When leaders ignore workplace aggression, employees can experience post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety disorder and depression. (Shutterstock)

    Workplace aggression is a pervasive and highly damaging issue that costs organizations billions of dollars annually in lost productivity. Beyond financial losses, it fosters toxic workplace cultures, exposes companies to legal and reputational risks, and causes substantial distress for those who experience or witness it.

    For years, scholars and practitioners have sought ways to prevent workplace aggression and mitigate its negative consequences. One proposed solution is bystander intervention, where employees who witness or hear about aggression step in to stop or address it.

    However, results from our recent meta-analysis cast doubt on the effectiveness of bystander intervention as a reliable solution. We integrated research findings from 149 articles, which included data from 111,466 participants. Alarmingly, we found that bystanders intervened only in the artificial safety of experiments, but not in real work settings.

    Not all employees feel equipped to address workplace aggression, and organizations should not over-rely on employees to take action. Instead, we highlighted the crucial role leaders can play. Leaders can effectively interrupt incidents of workplace aggression, act as influential role models for others and ultimately foster inclusive climates.

    Leaders must step up

    Leaders can become aware of workplace aggression in various ways, including overhearing rude comments in a meeting, receiving written complaints or being approached for advice on handling inappropriate jokes. When this happens, leaders must decide whether to act and how.

    Several barriers may prevent leaders from responding constructively. Like anyone else, leaders are prone to cognitive distortions. They may downplay an incident as a joke, hesitate to confront a high-performing employee who is the instigator, or even blame the target for provoking the behaviour.

    Some leaders may also feel it’s not their responsibility to intervene. If they have demanding jobs, they might not have time or energy to get involved in interpersonal issues that are not central to their jobs.

    Too often, employees remain silent when it comes to dealing with aggressive behaviours due to their perceived lack of power or ability to make a difference.
    (Shutterstock)

    However, the cost of leader inaction is high. In 2022, Nike faced a harassment and discrimination lawsuit with female employees raising concerns that “Nike’s management were unlikely to address their concerns” about unwanted sexual advances, sexist attitudes, and discrimination.

    In another case, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police faced a $1.1 billion lawsuit alleging systematic negligence and failure of “the chain of command” to address workplace aggression.

    When leaders ignore workplace aggression, organizations can suffer reputational and financial damage. But most importantly, employees can experience serious distress, including post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety disorder, and depression.

    Responding to aggressive incidents

    One survey found that only 44 per cent of employees at U.S. companies strongly agree that their companies have a culture where employees are encouraged to speak up. Too often, employees remain silent when it comes to dealing with aggressive behaviours due to their perceived lack of power or ability to make a difference.

    Leaders, however, have the power to resist pushback, hold instigators accountable and create a supportive workplace environment. Leaders must take an active role in both preventing and responding to aggressive workplace incidents.

    First, leaders should acknowledge that addressing aggression is a part of their job. Aside from legal obligations to address aggression, leaders’ actions set the tone for what is considered acceptable. Demonstrating a commitment to civility can signal their ethical leadership, a highly valued leadership style.



    Read more:
    Workplace tensions: How and when bystanders can make a difference

    Second, leaders need to also address what might seem like minor incidents. A common misconception among bystanders is that minor incidents of aggression aren’t serious or harmful enough to act on.

    Minor incidents of aggression include low-intensity behaviors, such as sarcastic remarks, offensive jokes, eye-rolling, or dismissive gestures. More severe aggression includes such behaviors as yelling, intimidation, throwing objects in anger, or even inflicting physical harm.

    Aggression often starts with relatively minor acts that may escalate to more severe ones when left unchecked, so these smaller acts need to be addressed. Once aggression escalates in intensity or frequency, it becomes part of the organizational culture, making it much harder to change.

    It might seem surprising, but minor and severe aggression can be equally harmful to victims. Minor incidents are often subtle, which can lead to excessive rumination (e.g., was it intentional?), self-doubt (e.g., am I misinterpreting it?) and lowered self-esteem. This is particularly problematic because minor incidents are significantly more prevalent at work.

    How leaders can intervene effectively

    Leaders also need to learn how to appropriately intervene in incidents of aggression. For minor incidents, leaders can take immediate actions by redirecting attention from the target and stopping the incident by shifting the conversation or suggesting a quick break.

    Leaders should also privately address the aggressive behaviour with the instigator. Aggressive behaviours, especially in minor forms, are sometimes unintentional, so it’s best to approach the conversation in a non-confrontational manner that prompts the instigator to reflect on their behaviour and recognize the harmful nature of their actions.

    Leaders should privately address any aggressive behaviour with instigators.
    (Shutterstock)

    Since employees commonly become defensive or deny wrongdoing during such conversations, leaders should focus on discussing behaviours rather than personality, and provide actionable suggestions for positive behavioural change.

    It is also important to provide support to the target. Sometimes, employees react negatively toward victims of workplace aggression, such as blaming them for provoking the aggression rather than supporting them, which can damage their social standing within the team. When leaders support victims, it signals to others how they should respond, which can help victims retain their social status.

    Leaders can also create opportunities for the target to showcase their skills, reaffirming the importance of their role within the team and the organization, or engaging in acts of leader allyship toward victims.

    Innovating bystander training

    While our findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of bystander intervention among regular employees, they underscore the critical role of those in positions of authority and power to take action to address workplace aggression.

    Leaders should adopt innovative training programs, including bystander intervention training. While many organizations already provide such training, it often only involves educational videos or lectures. Research shows the best way to learn is by practicing, not passively listening. Training should take this into account.

    But how can employees practice interventions in a safe environment? One way organizations can do this is by taking advantage of recent technological developments, such as generative artificial intelligence, to create realistic training simulations.

    Trainees can engage in simulated conversations with a virtual instigator or victim and practice their intervention skills. Such conversations can be done in real-time with an avatar through video or voice, allowing employees build confidence and refine their approach in a controlled setting.

    Leaders have both the power and responsibility to create safer workplaces. By taking action to interrupt aggression and support victims, leaders can be role models for employees and ultimately foster a more productive work environment. Needless to say, leaders should address the problem, not contribute to it.

    Zhanna Lyubykh receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Sandra L. Robinson receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Sandy Hershcovis receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Rui Zhong and The Ton Vuong do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Workplace aggression causes real harm — leaders must take action against it – https://theconversation.com/workplace-aggression-causes-real-harm-leaders-must-take-action-against-it-249938

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Inuit children in Nunavut face a preventable food security crisis

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Vandna Sinha, Adjunct Professor of Social Work, McGIll University & Associate Research Professor of Education, University of Colorado, Boulder, McGill University

    Nunavut has the highest rate of child poverty and the highest rate of food insecurity of any Canadian province or territory. In 2022, around 80 per cent of Indigenous children aged between one and 14 in Nunavut lived in households experiencing food insecurity. In 2018, the rate of childhood food insecurity in Nunavut was almost six times higher than in Canada as a whole.

    The Hamlet Food Voucher Program, funded through the Inuit Child First Initiative (ICFI), has recently offered some relief. This program gives families funds for groceries to meet the nutritional needs of Inuit children.

    However, ICFI funding only runs until March 31, 2025. With Parliament prorogued, plans for further funding remain uncertain. That means starting April 1, many Inuit children in Nunavut may again go hungry. The Canadian government can make sure that does not happen by extending funding for ICFI and the food voucher program.

    Long-term effects of food insecurity

    Food insecurity can have harmful, and sometimes lasting, impacts on a young person’s physical health, mental health, academic performance and cognitive development. Infants and toddlers are particularly vulnerable because they are completely dependent on adult caregivers whose physical and mental health can also be impacted by food insecurity.

    Recently, food security initiatives in Nunavut have been funded through the ICFI, which was launched in 2018. ICFI was meant to be a temporary measure to help families access essential services while an Inuit-specific framework is being developed.

    Nutrition support for children has been one of the most requested services under ICFI. Initially, each family had to submit extensive documentation, and often faced months-long delays before receiving services and supports.

    In 2023, municipal governments in Nunavut began to request, and receive, ICFI funding for nutrition supports for all Inuit children in their community. By December 2024, all but one community received funding for Hamlet Food Voucher Programs. These programs provide $500 per child for groceries and an additional $250 for children under four.

    High grocery costs

    The support provided through the Hamlet Food Voucher Program is significant, but $500 covers far less in Nunavut than in southern Canada. Groceries must be brought to Nunavut by plane or ship, and most communities have only one or two grocery stores. Accordingly, despite efforts to reduce prices through programs like Nutrition North Canada (NNC), the cost of groceries in Nunavut is much higher than in the rest of Canada.

    Grocery prices in Nunavut are also rising much faster than in the rest of Canada. Our research shows that, between 2022 and 2024, the cost of a basket of goods in Qikiqtaaluk, Nunavut’s largest region, rose by 26 per cent (compared to 13 per cent across Canada) and is now more than double the average cost in Canada.

    Even food subsidized through NNC is far more expensive: four litres of milk cost $9.95 in Qikiqtaaluk compared to a Canada average of $5.10. Prices for other items can be even higher: a February 2025 video from the hamlet of Grise Fiord shows a jar of jam selling for $35, pickles for $66 and a six-pack of apple sauce for $58.

    The high rate of food insecurity in Nunavut reflects a vast gap between household incomes and the money required to support a basic standard of living. Nunavut saw sustained income growth between 2005 and 2019, and a declining percentage of people receiving social assistance. Still, employment rates remain lower than in other territories.

    In 2023, the median income for households with two adults and two children was just under $36,000.

    This was around 40 per cent of the $89,420 needed for a two-adult, three-child family living in social housing in Iqaluit to afford the “modest, basic standard of living” represented by the official poverty threshold.

    The social assistance available to low-income Nunavut families is comparable to that in provinces with a lower cost of living. Even with $1,000 a month in food vouchers, a family of four making the median income remains far below the “deep poverty” threshold of 75 per cent of the official poverty line.

    An Inuit-led solution

    We have been interviewing service providers, grocery store employees and people co-ordinating Hamlet Food Voucher Programs. The interviews are part of an ongoing research project we are working on in collaboration with Sindu Govindapillai and Dheeksha Reddy from Qupanuaq, a service co-ordination program operated by the Arctic Children and Youth Foundation, and research team members Kelly Mitchell, Mohammad N. Khan, Josee G. Lavoie and Tracey Galloway.

    Interviewees tell us that, because of the program, fewer people go without food and more families can cover rent, utilities and other necessities. People also told us that families are eating healthier, children are going to school more often and are more engaged when there, and families are less stressed. Other programs and services that were previously busy addressing food-related crises can now focus on providing medical care, fostering learning and keeping children safe.

    The people we interviewed also make it clear the Hamlet Food Voucher Program is not enough to solve the problem of food insecurity in Nunavut. They stressed that food security initiatives must be paired with supports for healing, well-being and life-long learning.

    Inuit plans for addressing poverty include such supports. They also include measures to increase community decision-making, reform income assistance, increase access to housing and strengthen local economies.

    Until such a framework is fully implemented, the Hamlet Food Voucher Program must remain in place. Nunavut families currently face record levels of child poverty, rising food prices and a potential North American trade war that would further drive-up costs.

    Losing food voucher support would be catastrophic for many households, particularly those with young children. The Canadian government must support Inuit leaders working toward a long-term solution to food insecurity in Nunavut. By funding the Hamlet Food Voucher program in the interim, it can help ensure that the children of Nunavut do not go hungry.

    The ongoing research described in this article is funded by the Arctic Children and Youth Foundation and Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated.

    Financial support for this research was provided by CN and Mr. Dan Einwechter through the Einwechter Centre for Supply Chain
    Management, Wilfrid Laurier University

    Nicholas Li receives funding from a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Insight Development Grant that helped support this research.

    Jessica Penney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Inuit children in Nunavut face a preventable food security crisis – https://theconversation.com/inuit-children-in-nunavut-face-a-preventable-food-security-crisis-250004

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the UK’s rollback of banking regulations could risk another financial crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alper Kara, Head of Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University of London

    1000 Words/Shutterstock

    After the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the UK’s banking sector was placed under a much stricter regime. Bonuses were limited, regulations were beefed up and the whole industry scrutinised like never before.

    The idea was to make banks safer places for everyone’s money. But regulators are now thinking about easing some of these financial safeguards in a bid to boost economic growth.

    One proposal is to change the rules on mortgage affordability. One industry regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, is considering relaxing the lending restrictions which were designed to prevent households from building up unsustainable debt.

    This includes reviewing affordability tests and allowing banks to lend more freely to borrowers with smaller deposits or lower incomes. Some commentators argue that these changes will help first-time buyers and increase overall mortgage availability.

    But the risks of easier mortgage lending cannot be ignored. Before the last crisis, lenders approved loans to borrowers without verifying income or creditworthiness, assuming that rising property values would provide a safety net.

    And when interest rates increased and property values collapsed, many borrowers could not afford their repayments – and lost their homes.

    In fact, mortgage repayments are already becoming more difficult. The Bank of England has warned that over 1.5 million UK households will face significantly higher mortgage costs in 2025 after their current deals expire.

    And loosening lending rules could easily push house prices even higher. When more buyers qualify for mortgages, demand for housing increases and prices go up. This makes home ownership even less affordable, especially for those first-time buyers.

    Expanding access to debt without fixing underlying issues around housing supply only creates more financial risk. And it seems to be part of a broader trend towards deregulation.

    Internationally agreed banking rules, which require banks to hold more capital as protection against financial shocks, are being delayed in the UK until 2027. The Bank of England has justified the wait by
    saying that banks need more flexibility to increase lending and investment without the constraints those rules would bring.

    Banks are also challenging regulations that require them to hold on to a specific type of debt designed to ensure that failing banks can absorb financial losses without taxpayer bailouts. But if these rules are weakened, the banking system could become more fragile, forcing governments to intervene.

    The banking system is showing other signs of fragility too.

    Banking on regulations

    One worrying trend is the increasing use of something called “synthetic risk transfers”. This is a technique that banks use to reduce the amount of risk on their balance sheets, by transferring it to outside investors – such as hedge funds or insurers – through special financial contracts.

    These are sometimes compared to “collateralised debt obligations” (or CDOs), where a bank bundles multiple loans (such as mortgages, corporate debt or car loans) and sells portions of that bundle to investors. These complex transactions were a key factor in the global financial crisis because they concealed risky loans, spreading financial instability across global markets.

    Then there’s the UK’s motor finance sector, where lenders have been accused of charging excessive interest rates on car loans. This could lead to compensation claims of up to £44 billion, making it potentially one of the biggest consumer finance scandals since payment protection insurance (PPI).

    On that occasion, banks and lenders wrongly sold PPI to millions of customers, leading to a record £50 billion in compensation payouts.

    With the ongoing case of motor finance, the British government wanted regulators to limit compensation payouts to avoid disrupting financial markets, but this was rejected by the supreme court.

    Yet despite these problems, some still claim that deregulation will do wonders for the sector’s financial flexibility. The British chancellor Rachel Reeves has argued that relaxing some regulations and reducing red tape will encourage growth and increase the UK’s competitiveness in global financial markets.

    Sometimes there’s a reason for red tape.
    Oksana Valiukevic/Shutterstock

    Perhaps she agrees with Donald Trump, whose aggressive financial agenda includes relaxed capital requirements and weakened regulatory oversight.

    But past experience suggests that weakening financial safeguards and encouraging more debt in pursuit of short term growth can have severe long-term consequences.

    Research shows that financial deregulation often leads to financial instability and economic crises. It also suggests that expanding credit does not fix housing affordability, and that reducing capital requirements does not make banks safer.

    The global financial crisis was a direct result of excessive risk-taking in an underregulated system. Governments had to bail out banks with taxpayer money, leading to more than a decade of austerity.

    The same mistakes could happen again. For now though, it looks like some of those hard lessons have been forgotten.

    Alper Kara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the UK’s rollback of banking regulations could risk another financial crisis – https://theconversation.com/how-the-uks-rollback-of-banking-regulations-could-risk-another-financial-crisis-249386

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Colombia wants to ban Pablo Escobar and other narco-themed merchandise – here’s why

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ross Bennett-Cook, PhD Researcher, Carnegie School of Sport, Leeds Beckett University

    When you think of Colombia, what images come to mind? For some, it may be coffee or perhaps the country’s diverse landscapes and cultures. For many others, it will be cartels, crime and cocaine.

    Colombia’s history as a drug trafficking hub plays a major role in attracting visitors to the country – a form of travel known as “dark tourism”. But the Colombian government and much of the population are desperate to shake off this sordid association.

    A new bill going through Colombia’s congress is proposing to ban the sale of souvenirs that depict notorious drug lord Pablo Escobar and other convicted criminals. The proposed law would mean fines for those who violate the rules, and a temporary suspension of businesses.

    Colombia became a major producer of cocaine in the 1970s, fuelled by demand in North America. Led by Escobar, the Medellín cartel dominated this trade, controlling roughly 80% of the cocaine supply to the US.

    In 1988, Time magazine famously dubbed Medellín the “most dangerous city” in the world. Car bombings, assassinations, kidnap and torture became part of everyday life. In a failed attempt to assassinate presidential hopeful César Gaviria in 1989, Escobar was even behind the bombing of a commercial flight that killed all 107 passengers and crew onboard.

    By 1991, the homicide rate in Medellín was a shocking 381 for every 100,000 inhabitants, with 7,500 people murdered in the city that year alone. In comparison, there were a total of 107 homicides in London in 2024.

    Nowadays, Medellín is much more peaceful. Since Escobar’s death in 1993, its homicide rate has dropped by 97% due to increased security crackdowns and peace deals between the narco gangs.

    Colombia now has a booming tourism industry, breaking records for its highest number of visitors in 2024. Medellín has even become a trendy location for digital nomads due to its exciting nightlife, stunning landscape and excellent weather.

    A tourist poses for a picture in the Comuna 13 neighbourhood of Medellín.
    Anamaria Mejia / Shutterstock

    Yet, when I visited Colombia in 2024, it was hard not to become infatuated by Escobar. His face is everywhere: on key rings, magnets, mugs and t-shirts, while you often see lookalikes posing for photographs. Even airports – the last place I would expect to be associated with drugs – stock Escobar souvenirs.

    A quick look on TripAdvisor’s “best things to do in Medellín” shows Museum Pablo Escobar at number one. Almost every tour in the city is related to the notorious cartel leader, including visits to the neighbourhoods he controlled (and often terrorised), his hideout spots, and the location of his final shootout with the police.

    Narco tourism’s boom can be largely attributed to the huge popularity of Narcos, a critically acclaimed series on Netflix that dramatised the life of Escobar. But shows such as Narcos have been criticised by some experts for glorifying the cartel lifestyle – focusing on money, glamour and sex rather than the harsh realities of life within Colombia’s drug trade.

    According to dark tourism researcher Diego Felipe Caicedo, popular media related to narco culture often portrays cartel members as heroes managing to defeat the class structure established by the elite capitalist system.

    This has resulted in a dissonant heritage of people like Escobar. To some, he is a Robin Hood-type figure who built houses and gave to the poor. To others, he is an evil figure and vicious murderer. And while Escobar did use some of his fortune to improve deprived neighbourhoods, many saw this as a tactic to buy loyalty and mask his criminal activity.

    The romanticism of Escobar angers many in Colombia who hate the idea of a murderous drug tycoon being the most recognised image of the country. In a city where almost every family knows of someone affected by the violent consequences of the drug trade, victims in Medellín now live with reminders plastered across storefronts, vendor stalls and tourist’s t-shirts.

    Yet those who rely on this souvenir trade are furious at the possibility of restrictions. In many developing tourist destinations, selling souvenirs is an accessible way of benefiting from tourism and can act as a gateway out of poverty.

    The souvenir trade is one of supply and demand – vendors are only selling Escobar souvenirs because they are the most popular. So, perhaps the focus should be on changing the attitudes and interests of tourists, rather than penalising the vendors.

    Controlling the narrative

    Camille Beauvais, a researcher of Colombian history, suggests it is up to local authorities to take control of the narrative through commemoration and education. This could follow the example of the anti-mafia museum in Palermo, Italy, which is designed to recognise the courage of the city and its people in standing up to criminal activity.

    Attempts like this could steer tourists away from sensationalist tours to a more nuanced and historically accurate representation of this turbulent time. But the Colombian authorities have, up to now, tried to ignore this important period in the country’s history.

    It was only in 2022 that the Colombia Truth Commission released an official report on the root causes of violence in Colombia, including governmental and international failures in tackling narcotraffickers.



    Read more:
    Dark tourism: why atrocity tourism is neither new nor weird

    However, some groups in Colombia have already tried to develop an alternate narrative. In 2019, the NGO Colombia ConMemoria (Colombia Remembers) created an online “Narcostore”, a fake souvenir website full of Escobar-themed products.

    When visitors clicked to purchase the item, they were redirected to video testimonies of those affected by the drugs trade, many of whom had lost friends or relatives to Escobar’s terror. The site reached 180 million visitors worldwide.

    Narco tourism does not seem to be disappearing. Fascination with true crime, drugs and cartels is as popular as ever. But perhaps these tourists should take a moment to consider how they might feel, if someone who had murdered their loved ones became a souvenir fridge magnet for people to remember their country by.

    Ross Bennett-Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Colombia wants to ban Pablo Escobar and other narco-themed merchandise – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/colombia-wants-to-ban-pablo-escobar-and-other-narco-themed-merchandise-heres-why-249916

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Domestic abuse: how it escalates and why that makes it so hard to leave

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tirion E. Havard, Professor of Gender Abuse and Policy, London South Bank University

    Ryan Wellings has been jailed for more than six years after the death of his partner Kiena Dawes. Wellings was convicted of assault and coercive and controlling behaviour, having abused Dawes repeatedly throughout their relationship.

    Dawes took her own life in July 2022 and squarely blamed Wellings’ abuse, leaving a suicide note that read: “I was murdered. Slowly … Ryan Wellings killed me.” Wellings was acquitted of manslaughter.

    In the UK it is estimated that 1.6 million women aged 16 and over experienced domestic abuse last year. Yet when we hear horrific stories like Dawes’s, a common response is to ask, “Why would she stay with him?” This attitude perpetuates misconceptions about abuse, and misses the reality that anyone can become a victim.

    Abuse often escalates over time, meaning that what looks like a loving relationship initially may become violent or controlling.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    In the 1970s, psychologist Lenore Walker’s book The Battered Woman Syndrome proposed a theory that abuse in intimate relationships often occurs in a cycle, consisting of three main phases.

    The first, tension building, is when the perpetrator indicates signs of anger or frustration and can last from minutes to months. It usually escalates until it shifts into the second phase (explosion), when there is physical or sexual violence.

    After the event, the perpetrator may feel some remorse or guilt at the violence. Here they may enter the honeymoon phase, when the perpetrator apologises and promises that it will never happen again. The cycle is repeated, often becoming quicker (the honeymoon phase becomes shorter).

    This explanation can be overly simplistic and is not consistent with all survivors’ experiences. But it can be helpful to understand how abuse can change over time.

    As a probation officer, I worked with a woman who was severely abused by her long-term partner. Convinced that if she left him, he would kill her, she developed coping strategies based on the cycle of abuse. As the tension-building phase intensified, she became adept at recognising when the risk he posed became life-threatening.

    To avoid an explosion (and serious harm to herself) she would deliberately shoplift in front of security guards. Her criminal record and reputation was so well established that she was banned from most shops in her area.

    Once in court, she would plead for a custodial sentence. This would offer her some safety and “time out” from the abuse, but it also gave her partner time to reflect. At the time of her release, he would be sufficiently remorseful and the honeymoon period would start again.

    Control and isolation

    Like most intimate connections, abusive relationships typically start filled with romance, excitement and lust. In these early periods, perpetrators can be “over the top” with excessive communication and extreme flattery, even showering their partner with unnecessary gifts.

    This “love bombing” is often accompanied with early and intense conversations about a future together, as exhibited by Wellings who had Kiena Dawes’s name and face tattooed on his body within only days of meeting.

    Physical abuse typically comes later, sometimes triggered by life events such as marriage, pregnancy or childbirth. Usually, elements of control seep into the relationship as the couple becomes more established. These acts are discrete and difficult for the survivor, friends, family and professionals to recognise.

    Abusers may persuade their partner to stay in to watch a film or have a romantic meal at home, rather than going out to meet friends or family. When a night out is organised, the perpetrator might invite themselves or turn up unexpectedly to social events.

    This isolation is part of a perpetrator’s wider intention to control their partner. With no one to speak to and nothing to measure their relationship against, it becomes more difficult for survivors to recognise their relationship as abusive. Instead, they may doubt themselves and their perceptions.

    Even if they do recognise their relationship as abusive, the lack of contact with others makes it more difficult to reach out for help. Survivors feel trapped, having no choice but to stay.

    Mobile phones and other tech have given abuse perpetrators a new tool of control.
    Bits and Splits/Shutterstock

    Over time, the control escalates and becomes more overt, often hiding in plain sight. As a probation officer, I once worked with a perpetrator who, on his wedding night, took the hotel towel and used it to strangle his new wife.

    Thereafter when they had guests, he would purposefully place a towel over a chair – signalling to his partner that her friends needed to leave, or that she had crossed an invisible line and she would pay for it later.

    The symbolism of this simple act would likely be missed by those around the couple, but would serve as a warning to the survivor of the abuse that was to come. As the evening continued, the tension would build alongside her crippling fear.

    This kind of control can also occur when someone experiencing abuse is out in public or with friends. As I have found in my research, smartphones have given abusers more tools to control their victims, creating a panopticon effect, where victims feel surveilled and watched by their partners 24/7.



    Read more:
    Even before deepfakes, tech was a tool of abuse and control

    Breaking the cycle

    As Kiena Dawes’ story shows, there is no easy way to break this cycle. Research has shown that leaving an abusive relationship can be dangerous for women, as abuse typically continues post-separation.

    The number of suicides linked with domestic abuse has risen steadily in recent years. There are currently more domestic abuse related deaths linked to suicide than homicide between partners. Between 2019 and 2022, 30% of suspected suicides in Kent and Medway identified domestic abuse as a factor.

    The last government took important steps to recognise that abusive relationships can and do result in survivors taking their own lives, replacing the term “domestic homicide” with “fatal domestic abuse” in law.

    Yet misunderstandings, particularly about why people stay with their abusers, persist. When faced with women who are experiencing abuse, the question should not be why do they stay, but what is stopping them from leaving – and how do we remove those barriers?

    If you or someone you know is affected by abuse, the National Domestic Abuse Helpline is 0808 2000 247, and other resources are available.

    Tirion E. Havard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Domestic abuse: how it escalates and why that makes it so hard to leave – https://theconversation.com/domestic-abuse-how-it-escalates-and-why-that-makes-it-so-hard-to-leave-238919

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A robot nearly headbutted a festival spectator in China – here are four urgent steps to make the tech safer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Carl Strathearn, Lecturer in Computer Science, Edinburgh Napier University

    Humanoid robots will start to become much more common as prices tumble. thinkhubstudio

    Humanoid robots are supposed to be our loyal assistants, but we saw another side to them the other day. Chinese robot manufacturer Unitree was demonstrating its latest H1 robots at a lantern festival in the city of Taishan, Guangdong province, when one walked up to the crowd barrier and seemed to lunge at an elderly woman, nearly headbutting her.

    The incident quickly went viral, and sparked a fierce debate about whether the robot actually attacked the woman or had tripped up. It’s mostly being overlooked that we’re a long way from having robots that could intentionally attack someone – machines like these are often remote controlled – but the danger to the public is clearly real enough.

    With sales of humanoid robots set to skyrocket over the next decade, the public will increasingly be at risk from these kinds of incidents. In our view as robotics researchers, governments have put very little thought into the risks.

    Here are some urgent steps that they should take to make humanoid robots as safe as possible.

    1. Increase owner requirements

    The first important issue is to what extent humanoid robots will be controlled by users. Whereas Tesla’s Optimus can be remotely operated by people in a control centre, others such as the Unitree H1s are controlled by the user with a handheld joystick.

    Currently on sale for around £90,000, they come with a software development kit on which you can develop your own artificial intelligence (AI) system, though only to a limited extent. For example, it could say a sentence or recognise a face but not take your kids to school.

    Who is to blame if someone gets hurt or even killed by a human-controlled robot? It’s hard to know for sure – any discussion about liability would first involve proving whether the harm was caused by human error or a mechanical malfunction.

    This came up in a Florida case where a widower sued medical robot-maker Intuitive Surgical Inc over his wife’s death in 2022. Her death was linked to injuries she sustained from a heat burn in her intestine during an operation that was caused by a fault in one of the company’s machines.

    The case was dropped in 2024 after being partially dismissed by a district judge. But the fact that the widower sued the manufacturer rather than the medics demonstrated that the robotics industry needs a legal framework for preventing such situations as much as the public do.

    While for drones there are aviation laws and other restrictions to govern their use in public areas, there are no specific laws for walking robots.

    So far, the only place to have put forward governance guidelines is China’s Shanghai province. Published in summer 2024, these include stipulating that robots must not threaten human security, and that manufacturers must train users on how to use these machines ethically.

    For robots controlled by owners, in the UK there is currently nothing preventing someone from taking a robot dog out for a stroll in a busy park, or a humanoid robot to the pub for a pint.

    As a starting point, we could ban people from controlling robots under the influence of alcohol or drugs, or when they are otherwise distracted such as using their phones. Their use could also be restricted in risky environments such as confined spaces with lots of members of the public, places with fire or chemical hazards, and the roofs of buildings.

    2. Improve design

    Robots that looks sleek and can dance and flip are fun to watch, but how safe are the audiences? Safe designs would consider everything from reducing cavities where fingers could get caught, to waterproofing internal components.

    Protective barriers or exoskeletons could further reduce unintended contact, while cushioning mechanisms could reduce the effect of an impact.

    Robots should be designed to signal their intent through lights, sounds and gestures. For example, they should arguably make a noise when entering a room so as not to surprise anyone.

    Even drones can alert their user if they lose signal or battery and need to return to home, and such mechanisms should also be built into walking robots. There are no legal requirements for any such features at present.

    ‘I am now exiting the room.’
    Simple Line

    It’s not that manufacturers are entirely ignoring these issues for walking robots. Unitree’s quadroped Go2, for instance, blinks and beeps when the battery is low or if it is overheating.

    It also has automatic emergency cut-offs in these situations, although they must be triggered by a remote operator when the robot is in “telemetric mode”. Crucially, however, there are no clear regulations to ensure that all manufacturers meet a certain safety standard.

    3. Train operators

    Clearly there will be dangers with robots using AI features, but remote-operated models could be even more dangerous. Mistakes could result from users’ lack of real-world training and experience in real-life situations.

    There appears to be a major skills gap in operator training, and robotics companies will need to prioritise this to ensure operators can control machines efficiently and safely.

    In addition, humans can have delayed reaction times and limited concentration, so we also need systems that can monitor the attention of robot operators and alert them to prevent accidents. This would be similar to the HGV-driver distraction-detection systems that were installed in vehicles in London in 2024.

    4. Educate the public

    The incident in China has highlighted current misconceptions about humanoid robots as the media is once again blaming AI despite the fact that this was not the issue. This risks causing widespread mistrust and confusion among the public.

    If people understand to what extent walking robots are owner-operated or remote-operated, it will change their expectations about what the robot might do, and make everyone safer as a result.

    Also, understanding the owner’s level of control is vital for managing buyers’ expectations and forewarning them about how much they’ll need to learn about operating and programming a robot before they buy one.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A robot nearly headbutted a festival spectator in China – here are four urgent steps to make the tech safer – https://theconversation.com/a-robot-nearly-headbutted-a-festival-spectator-in-china-here-are-four-urgent-steps-to-make-the-tech-safer-250851

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Freetown’s celebrated tree planting scheme won’t work for other African cities, or the planet

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Milo Gough, Lecturer in African Studies, University of Oxford

    More than a million trees have been planted in the city of Freetown in Sierra Leone since 2020. This reforestation scheme, known as “FreetownTheTreeTown”, has been celebrated for its innovative approach to climate action, with ambitious plans to plant another 5 million trees by 2030 and 20 million more by 2050.

    A global network of mayors known as the C40 Cities and other urban development experts have called this a “highly replicable” solution for environmental crises across urban Africa.

    Reforestation helps Freetown cope with excess heat, annual seasonal floods, landslides and other environmental problems. Because of its geography, squeezed between wooded mountains and coastline, and widespread poverty, the city is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the effects of the climate change.

    Deforestation of Freetown’s mountains for wood, charcoal and housing space led to a landslide in 2017 that killed 1,100 people and left at least another 3,000 people homeless. FreetownTheTreetown is a response to this disaster.



    Read more:
    Sierra Leone mudslide was a man-made tragedy that could have been prevented

    There are also important historical contexts. I’ve conducted research into the colonial history of Freetown and the changing historical meaning of its trees. From the spiritual meaning of trees in Indigenous west African cultures, through to their use in colonial planning schemes, trees in Freetown have been central to political struggles over the urban landscape.

    Tree planting should not be viewed simply as a generic social good. Trees are embedded in wider structures of power. From colonial-era tree planting, which aimed to reorganise Freetown into a European style city, to the 21st century’s green capitalism – in which tree “tokens” have become commodities for their marketable “carbon offset” – trees are far from apolitical.

    Tree planting projects alone cannot solve environmental problems in African cities. As the world heats up, reliance on fossil fuels must be reduced. Green capitalism’s tree planting schemes won’t cut greenhouse gas emissions at source.

    Climate solutions

    FreetownTheTreeTown is organised through an app, TreeTracker, used by community growers who plant and care for saplings that have been grown in a nursery. They use the app to tag the geographical location of each new tree and track tree growth with photographs.

    The community growers, largely women and young people, receive payments from the city administration once every quarter in the form of tokens that can be exchanged for cash. Thanks to this community, the project has achieved a high tree survival rate of over 80%.

    Inside Freetown’s tree planting scheme.

    Since 2020, this project has received almost US$3 million (£2.4 million), largely from the World Bank and the Global Environmental Facility.

    But the project is supposed to start covering its own costs through selling carbon offset tokens to foreign nations and companies. Buyers will buy these to “cancel out” their own carbon emissions. A polluting airline in the US, for example, could claim it has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions if it buys carbon offset tokens from FreetownTheTreeTown.



    Read more:
    There aren’t enough trees in the world to offset society’s carbon emissions – and there never will be

    Carbon offset schemes have been criticised by academics and journalists for overstating the rate and speed at which they can reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. They’ve been accused of distracting attention from the necessary and difficult work of transitioning away from polluting energy sources.

    Charcoal is the most important product of the deforestation of Freetown’s mountainous peninsula because the city’s residents use it as cooking fuel. It is, however, highly polluting. People living in informal communities are encouraged to move to cleaner cooking fuels. Some briquettes are even made from human waste. Freetown is genuinely trying to reduce its extremely low carbon emissions.

    Tensions in tree town

    Tension between the conservation and exploitation of Freetown’s mountain forest has existed for centuries. Freetown was established by British colonists in 1792 as a site for the resettlement of formerly enslaved people from across west Africa. Mountain forests were cut down and turned into timber for the board houses of Freetown.

    My research into the late 19th century history of Freetown has revealed that an enormous iroko tree with a trunk circumference of over 15 metres was a place of great spiritual and ritual significance in the area of Brookfields.



    Read more:
    Bringing forests to the city: 10 ways planting trees improves health in urban centres

    Many formerly enslaved people from Yorubaland, in what is today south-western Nigeria, believed iroko trees were inhabited by powerful spirits. Witches were thought to hold meetings around them.

    The Brookfields iroko tree was feared. But it was also respected. Processions of the Bondo, an all-female secret society, visited the tree with offerings, such as corn and pieces of cloth.

    The colonial government planted new trees to demarcate the gridded streetscape of Freetown. But Freetonians did not like the new trees. They suspected them of harbouring mosquitoes and snakes. Twenty years after the first planting, most had been cut down by the city’s residents. The colonial government attempted to overwrite west African understandings of trees by imposing a new order.

    Tree planting schemes must pay close attention to histories of government-led dispossession if they are to successfully transform cities. FreetownTheTreeTown has begun to tackle this history head on by co-creating this reforested city with its communities. This is important work. But, there must be caution about simply transplanting the technical solutions from Freetown to other cities across Africa.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Milo Gough has received funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council through CHASE DTP.

    – ref. Why Freetown’s celebrated tree planting scheme won’t work for other African cities, or the planet – https://theconversation.com/why-freetowns-celebrated-tree-planting-scheme-wont-work-for-other-african-cities-or-the-planet-247254

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mike Amesbury guilty of punching a man – here’s why he’s still an MP

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Caygill, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Nottingham Trent University

    Since the publication of this article, Mike Amesbury’s sentence has been suspended on appeal.

    MP Mike Amesbury has been jailed for ten weeks after he pleaded guilty to punching a man in his constituency of Runcorn and Helsby. The indecent happened in October of last year. Amesbury had the Labour whip withdrawn and has sat as an independent MP since.

    What happens to MPs who are accused and found guilty of wrongdoing? While it does depend on how we define “wrongdoing”, as it can vary in terms of the scale of offence, there are several options available to parliamentary parties, the House of Commons itself and the public. In the case of Amesbury, neither parliament nor the Labour party can stop him from remaining as an MP under the current rules, either while in prison or after he comes out. But his constituents do have a say.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    The ultimate power parliamentary parties have (particularly the leader) is to remove the whip. In effect, this means the MP is expelled from the parliamentary party and may not sit with their colleagues, nor be reelected under the party banner should the whip remain withdrawn at an election.

    There is a distinction between the whip being withdrawn and it being suspended. To have the whip withdrawn suggests it is final and will not be returned. To have it suspended suggests its removal is only temporary and can be returned. This was the case with the seven Labour MPs who voted against the party line over the two-child benefit cap.

    Amesbury had the whip withdrawn after the allegations and video evidence (which was circulated widely on social media) emerged. However, he remains an independent MP, at least for now.

    The House of Commons has the power to suspend MPs from the chamber for a specified period of time. Where an MP is found to have broken the code of conduct or committed a contempt of the House (for example, misleading the House), the committee on standards may recommend a period of suspension which leads to a motion being tabled in the House of Commons.

    This is what was going to happen to Boris Johnson after he was found to have misled parliament over “partygate” allegations. He resigned before the suspension could take effect.

    The parliamentary commissioner for standards, (an independent officer of the House of Commons), can also investigate complaints made against MPs (including over breaching lobbying rules). In serious cases it can report to the standards committee to recommend a sanction, including suspension from the House.

    The only way an MP can be expelled by the House of Commons completely (rather than having their membership suspended) is if they are sentenced to more than a year’s imprisonment. In this case, Amesbury was sentenced to ten weeks, so well below that threshold.

    Prior to 2015, this would have been the end of the process. Amesbury would have had the whip withdrawn. After completing his ten-week sentence he would have been free to continue to sit as an MP until the end of his current term.

    The role of the public

    As things stand in 2025, this is no longer the end of the line for these kinds of offences. We are approaching the tenth anniversary of the Recall of MPs Act, which has provided a route for the electorate to remove sitting MPs who have been found to have committed wrongdoing.

    Recall refers to a process whereby the electorate in a constituency can trigger a byelection to remove a sitting MP before the end of their term of office. MPs can be recalled under three circumstances:

    • if they are convicted in the UK of any offence and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained, after all appeals have been exhausted

    • if an MP is suspended from the House following report and recommended sanction from the committee on standards for a specified period: at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified (we saw a number of these kind of recalls during the 2019 Parliament, particularly following lobbying scandals)

    • if an MP is convicted of making false or misleading parliamentary allowances claims (under the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009).

    In the case of Amesbury, his sentence is close to meeting the conditions of the first point. I use the word “close” as he is planning on appealing the sentence, and the criteria cannot be formally met until those appeals are exhausted.

    If the criteria is met, then the speaker must notify the local returning officer (who oversees elections). A recall petition is then automatically launched and remains open for six weeks. Under the act, electors must sign the petition in person, by post or by proxy. For a petition to be successful and a byelection triggered, 10% of the eligible registered voters must sign it.

    At the time of writing, there have been six recall petitions launched against various MPs. Four of those were successful and saw the sitting MP lose their seat, one petition failed and the MP remained in place and in one case the MP resigned while the petition was open, automatically triggering a byelection.

    Given Amesbury is appealing, this process has not yet begun. However, he is under pressure, particularly from opposition MPs, to resign immediately and trigger a byelection now.

    While there is potentially a way back for Amesbury in terms of remaining an MP (should his appeal be upheld or if a recall petition goes ahead and fails to meet the 10% threshold) it is unlikely there is a way back for him in terms of having the Labour whip restored.

    Either way, he is on borrowed time. Even if he remains an MP, without a party whip he most likely faces defeat at a subsequent general election.

    This is what happened to former Labour MP Claudia Webbe. She had the whip withdrawn by the Labour Party in 2021 following a conviction for harassment. However, she appealed her sentence and was given community service instead – failing to trigger the Recall of MPs Act. She remained as an independent MP until the 2024 general election, where she was defeated by the Conservative candidate.

    There is an onus on political parties to ensure they respond to wrongdoing appropriately, including suspending the whip and removing it where necessary. In Amesbury’s case, Labour acted quickly.

    But given the scandals we have seen in recent years, the public have limited patience. And wrongdoing, by what is a small minority of MPs, can tar the reputation of all MPs and parliament itself.

    Thomas Caygill is currently receiving funding from the British Academy (SRG2324241256)

    – ref. Mike Amesbury guilty of punching a man – here’s why he’s still an MP – https://theconversation.com/mike-amesbury-guilty-of-punching-a-man-heres-why-hes-still-an-mp-250707

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Water-based batteries could be key in helping Canada achieve its net zero goals by 2050 — here’s how

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Meysam Maleki, Ph.D. Candidate of Chemical Engineering, Concordia University

    Canada has set an ambitious target to be net zero by 2050.

    Key to achieving this target will be decarbonizing the country’s energy grid.

    Renewable energy sources will be an important aspect of these plans. But while these energy sources are both cheap and increasingly accessible, a problem they continue to face is variability. After all, the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow when power is needed.

    Canada’s dominant renewable energy source — hydropower, which made up almost 62 per cent of Canada’s total renewable electricity generation in 2022 — is also highly vulnerable to climate change. Low precipitation in 2023 reduced reservoir levels in Canada below average. This led to a 25 per cent drop in electricity exports to the United States. The situation was even worse in British Columbia, where BC Hydro had to import electricity to meet provincial demand.

    Given these challenges, critical questions arise about whether renewable energy sources will be able to cope with energy demands now and in the future.

    One way of addressing these issue is by building large-scale energy storage systems. These would be capable of storing excess renewable energy when it’s abundant and deploying it when needed.

    Storing energy

    Around 90 per cent of global energy capacity is stored using pumped hydro energy storage systems.

    This system stores energy by pumping water from a lower level reservoir to a higher one using electric pumps powered by a renewable energy source. To release this stored energy, the reverse process occurs — so the water in the high levels flows down through turbines, generating electricity.

    Pumped hydro energy storage is currently the most desirable energy storage method. This is because it can have a lifespan of up to 100 years, is highly efficient and very cost-effective.

    However, a major pitfall of these storage systems is the geographic conditions required for them to work. These systems rely on large amounts of water flowing through different elevations. This incurs a significant cost. There are also environmental concerns, since it needs a large infrastructure to be built.

    But a type of water-based battery may, in some cases, offer a better way of storing renewable energy for large-scale use — all without requiring as much space and infrastructure as pumped hydro systems.

    Aqueous redox flow batteries are a type of battery that store energy in external tanks filled with water-based solutions. These solutions are then pumped and cycled through the battery’s electrochemical cell, causing reactions which allow the battery to release and store energy until needed.

    Aqueous redox flow batteris could help store renewable energy for decades.
    (Shutterstock)

    These batteries are able to store and release energy for years. Some companies claim they can last up to 25 years.

    Alongside their long life, aqueous redox flow batteries are potentially more cost-effective to scale-up compared to other batteries — such as the conventional lithium-ion batteries found in our phones and cars. They’re also a lot safer than conventional batteries, as the water-based electrolytes means there’s no risk of flammability.

    Aqueous redox flow batteries are highly scalable due to their modular design. Increasing storage capacity can be done by building larger tanks without needing to change the entire system. This makes them useful for both small and large-scale projects — whether that’s powering a single home or an entire community.

    These batteries have the potential to benefit the energy industry by providing a reliable way of managing fluctuating energy supply. They could also be well-suited for supplying reliable, renewable energy in rural communities and during disaster recovery.

    The world’s largest aqueous redox flow battery was recently built in China. Assuming an average consumption of one kilowatt-hour per hour per household, this one battery alone would be able to supply electricity to approximately 58,000 homes for 12 hours.

    Aqueous redox flow batteries can also be used in many other applications. For example, as electric vehicles become more prevalent, this technology could be suitable for supporting EV charging stations. South Korea even announced in 2021 that these batteries would be trialled to enhance EV charging infrastructure.

    This is particularly relevant in Canada, given plans to have 12.4 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2035.

    Battery limitations

    While commercial aqueous redox flow batteries have many advantages, their main limitation is cost.

    Currently, commercial aqueous redox flow batteries rely on expensive and rare materials, such as vanadium. This makes them too costly for widespread adoption.

    Cheaper, more abundant organic materials (such as anthraquinones) could replace the vanadium in these batteries. But organic materials come with their own challenges. Currently, some cost-effective organic redox flow batteries degrade much faster than versions made with vanadium, which can last for decades.

    However, current research is making significant progress in improving the stability of organic materials- helping to extend the lifespan of cheap organic redox flow batteries, making them an increasingly viable alternative.

    Given the current costs of the materials needed to make commercial aqueous redox flow batteries and the short lifespan of cost-effective organic compounds, this technology is not yet fully ready for widespread use. Continued investment in research and development will be crucial. If we can overcome these current challenges and unlock the full potential of aqueous organic redox flow batteries, they could become a key component of the global transition to renewable energy.

    Nothing to disclose.

    – ref. Water-based batteries could be key in helping Canada achieve its net zero goals by 2050 — here’s how – https://theconversation.com/water-based-batteries-could-be-key-in-helping-canada-achieve-its-net-zero-goals-by-2050-heres-how-221083

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Labour’s Mike Amesbury guilty of punching a man – here’s why he’s still an MP

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Caygill, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Nottingham Trent University

    Since the publication of this article, Mike Amesbury’s sentence has been suspended on appeal.

    Former Labour MP Mike Amesbury has been jailed for ten weeks after he pleaded guilty to punching a man in his constituency of Runcorn and Helsby. The indecent happened in October of last year. Amesbury had the Labour whip withdrawn and has sat as an independent MP since.

    What happens to MPs who are accused and found guilty of wrongdoing? While it does depend on how we define “wrongdoing”, as it can vary in terms of the scale of offence, there are several options available to parliamentary parties, the House of Commons itself and the public. In the case of Amesbury, neither parliament nor the Labour party can stop him from remaining as an MP under the current rules, either while in prison or after he comes out. But his constituents do have a say.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    The ultimate power parliamentary parties have (particularly the leader) is to remove the whip. In effect, this means the MP is expelled from the parliamentary party and may not sit with their colleagues, nor be reelected under the party banner should the whip remain withdrawn at an election.

    There is a distinction between the whip being withdrawn and it being suspended. To have the whip withdrawn suggests it is final and will not be returned. To have it suspended suggests its removal is only temporary and can be returned. This was the case with the seven Labour MPs who voted against the party line over the two-child benefit cap.

    Amesbury had the whip withdrawn after the allegations and video evidence (which was circulated widely on social media) emerged. However, he remains an independent MP, at least for now.

    The House of Commons has the power to suspend MPs from the chamber for a specified period of time. Where an MP is found to have broken the code of conduct or committed a contempt of the House (for example, misleading the House), the committee on standards may recommend a period of suspension which leads to a motion being tabled in the House of Commons.

    This is what was going to happen to Boris Johnson after he was found to have misled parliament over “partygate” allegations. He resigned before the suspension could take effect.

    The parliamentary commissioner for standards, (an independent officer of the House of Commons), can also investigate complaints made against MPs (including over breaching lobbying rules). In serious cases it can report to the standards committee to recommend a sanction, including suspension from the House.

    The only way an MP can be expelled by the House of Commons completely (rather than having their membership suspended) is if they are sentenced to more than a year’s imprisonment. In this case, Amesbury was sentenced to ten weeks, so well below that threshold.

    Prior to 2015, this would have been the end of the process. Amesbury would have had the whip withdrawn. After completing his ten-week sentence he would have been free to continue to sit as an MP until the end of his current term.

    The role of the public

    As things stand in 2025, this is no longer the end of the line for these kinds of offences. We are approaching the tenth anniversary of the Recall of MPs Act, which has provided a route for the electorate to remove sitting MPs who have been found to have committed wrongdoing.

    Recall refers to a process whereby the electorate in a constituency can trigger a byelection to remove a sitting MP before the end of their term of office. MPs can be recalled under three circumstances:

    • if they are convicted in the UK of any offence and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained, after all appeals have been exhausted

    • if an MP is suspended from the House following report and recommended sanction from the committee on standards for a specified period: at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified (we saw a number of these kind of recalls during the 2019 Parliament, particularly following lobbying scandals)

    • if an MP is convicted of making false or misleading parliamentary allowances claims (under the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009).

    In the case of Amesbury, his sentence is close to meeting the conditions of the first point. I use the word “close” as he is planning on appealing the sentence, and the criteria cannot be formally met until those appeals are exhausted.

    If the criteria is met, then the speaker must notify the local returning officer (who oversees elections). A recall petition is then automatically launched and remains open for six weeks. Under the act, electors must sign the petition in person, by post or by proxy. For a petition to be successful and a byelection triggered, 10% of the eligible registered voters must sign it.

    At the time of writing, there have been six recall petitions launched against various MPs. Four of those were successful and saw the sitting MP lose their seat, one petition failed and the MP remained in place and in one case the MP resigned while the petition was open, automatically triggering a byelection.

    Given Amesbury is appealing, this process has not yet begun. However, he is under pressure, particularly from opposition MPs, to resign immediately and trigger a byelection now.

    While there is potentially a way back for Amesbury in terms of remaining an MP (should his appeal be upheld or if a recall petition goes ahead and fails to meet the 10% threshold) it is unlikely there is a way back for him in terms of having the Labour whip restored.

    Either way, he is on borrowed time. Even if he remains an MP, without a party whip he most likely faces defeat at a subsequent general election.

    This is what happened to former Labour MP Claudia Webbe. She had the whip withdrawn by the Labour Party in 2021 following a conviction for harassment. However, she appealed her sentence and was given community service instead – failing to trigger the Recall of MPs Act. She remained as an independent MP until the 2024 general election, where she was defeated by the Conservative candidate.

    There is an onus on political parties to ensure they respond to wrongdoing appropriately, including suspending the whip and removing it where necessary. In Amesbury’s case, Labour acted quickly.

    But given the scandals we have seen in recent years, the public have limited patience. And wrongdoing, by what is a small minority of MPs, can tar the reputation of all MPs and parliament itself.

    Thomas Caygill is currently receiving funding from the British Academy (SRG2324241256)

    – ref. Labour’s Mike Amesbury guilty of punching a man – here’s why he’s still an MP – https://theconversation.com/labours-mike-amesbury-guilty-of-punching-a-man-heres-why-hes-still-an-mp-250707

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the Face magazine redefined culture, music and style

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Clifford Kent, Senior Lecturer in Latin American Studies & Visual Culture, Royal Holloway University of London

    The Face magazine had a revolutionary impact on contemporary culture. The legendary “style bible” launched in 1980 was known for its bold design, iconic covers and trailblazing photography.

    As Sabina Jaskot-Gill, curator of The Face Magazine: Culture Shift at the National Portrait Gallery, observes, the Face was “not just documenting the contemporary cultural landscape, but playing a vital role in inventing and reinventing it”. This capacity to both document and actively shape cultural movements highlights the magazine’s enduring influence.

    Art director Phil Bicker explains how the Face was “a catalyst that challenged and changed broader culture,” pioneering an approach that democratised information, anticipated cultural trends and inspired its readers. This ability to forge, rather than simply reflect shifts in music, fashion and youth culture, underscores why the Face remains so influential today. This is particularly so in an era dominated by digital and social media.

    The exhibition features prints, magazine spreads, film and music. It uses portraiture to explore how the cult publication championed innovative photography, enabling image-makers to disrupt culture and redefine the spirit of the age.

    Iconic magazine covers are on show featuring the model Kate Moss, the designer Alexander McQueen, the singer Kurt Cobain, electronic duo Daft Punk and many others. Among these are lesser-known images from the magazine, some exhibited for the first time. These pictures from the Face’s vast archive represent some of the most arresting photographs in this exhibition.

    As a teenager, I was obsessed with the Face, drawn to its radical style and images bursting with energy and youth. Each issue felt exciting and unpredictable. I’d tear out pages, pin them to my bedroom wall, and paste them into sketchbooks and mood boards – a practice I’ve continued throughout my career. The exhibition was a reminder of how much the magazine informed my understanding of photography before I ever picked up a camera.

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    Style bible for a new generation

    The Face’s founder, Nick Logan – former NME editor and Smash Hits creator – recognised a gap in the market for a monthly in which art, fashion and music converged. From its earliest issues, the Face challenged the conventions of publishing.

    It combined innovative editorial strategies with cutting-edge social commentary. Writing in The Story of The Face, journalist Paul Gorman describes how the so-called “style bible” propelled cover stars into the national consciousness, becoming a must-have publication for art directors around the world.

    Far from occupying the margins, it became a core reference for those tracking 1980s and 1990s fashion trends. The Face fostered a collaborative culture that elevated photographers, stylists and designers.

    It also spearheaded an experimental visual storytelling that shaped fashion, music and youth culture without traditional editorial constraints. This encouraged groundbreaking approaches that infused cutting-edge fashion with the raw energy of subcultures like punk, hip-hop and acid house.

    Photographer Janette Beckman recalls a 1984 shoot with rap group Run-DMC in Queens, New York. After dialling a number she had been given, she ended up at Jam Master Jay’s mother’s house and captured a portrait of the American group whose stripped-back sound was about to revolutionise hip-hop.

    As rap and rave culture thrived, the magazine’s raw, black-and-white photography by Corinne Day, Glen Luchford and Juergen Teller rejected high-fashion gloss in favour of authenticity. Stylists like Melanie Ward promoted casual youth style, launching a new wave of seemingly unconventional models, including Kate Moss (“the anti-supermodel”).

    Ward later revealed: “We wanted to achieve an emotional response from the models … these were not cold hard fashion photos … I remember going to appointments with my book and them saying ‘These aren’t fashion photographs, these are documentary.’”

    The Face was synonymous with Britpop’s rise and the hedonism of Cool Britannia in the mid to late 1990s. A visual language, crafted by photographers and stylists, defined the look and feel of a generation.

    One striking example is Juergen Teller’s 1995 snapshot of music producer Goldie, slumped on the floor of a living room beside a TV set, a stack of VHS tapes and a Roman bust. A few years later in 2001, Gemma Booth photographed Ms. Dynamite for the Face just as the British singer and rapper exploded onto the UK garage scene.

    Another picture from 2003, taken by Neil Massey, shows Girls Aloud sitting in a Paris cafe during the promo tour for their song Sound of the Underground. He told me: “They’d just gone platinum yet struck me as normal girls who’d been thrust into the limelight.”

    Portraits such as these encapsulate the raw, unfiltered aesthetic of the time. They are visual records of cultural shifts, documenting artists who defined their eras and paved the way for future generations.

    (Re)invention in the digital age

    In the 1990s and 2000s, the Face embraced the shift from analogue to digital, developing a bold, hyperreal aesthetic that pushed the boundaries of photography and design.

    Under art director Lee Swillingham, photographers such as Norbert Schoerner and Inez and Vinoodh experimented with emerging digital tools like Quantel Paintbox and Photoshop, blending photography with graphic design in a cinematic, futuristic aesthetic. This era marked a return to glamour but with a high-tech, avant-garde edge that transformed photographers into image-makers.

    A striking example of this digital experimentation featured in the exhibition is Sean Ellis’s The Dark Knight Returns (1998). This is a darkly menacing portrait of Alexander McQueen, styled by fashion editor Isabella Blow. The dramatic lighting and theatrical composition captured McQueen’s rebellious spirit while reflecting the Face’s evolving visual identity, merging art, fashion and technology.

    In the mid‑1980s, Logan considered closing the magazine, convinced he had reached the end of an era. But it was not until 2004, amid fierce competition, declining sales and shifting ownership, that the magazine eventually ceased publication.

    Despite its closure, the Face remained influential and was revived as a print-online hybrid in 2019. Building on its legacy, the magazine continues to push visual boundaries and raise up emerging image-makers.

    This timely exhibition celebrates the Face’s generational impact, highlighting the importance of authenticity, human connection and the radical potential of image-making.

    The Face Magazine: Culture Shift runs at the National Portrait Gallery, London, from 20 February until 18 May

    James Clifford Kent does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the Face magazine redefined culture, music and style – https://theconversation.com/how-the-face-magazine-redefined-culture-music-and-style-250862

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How stigma, fear and the UK welfare system harm women in informal self-employment

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sally Jones, Reader in Entrepreneurship and Gender Studies, Manchester Metropolitan University

    Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

    Self-employment is often championed as a route out of poverty for the unemployed and those on low incomes, offering independence, flexibility and financial autonomy. However, for informally self-employed women in the UK, the reality is very different to these kinds of entrepreneurial success stories.

    These women, working for themselves and “off the books”, can find they are trapped in a grey area – neither fully unemployed nor officially self-employed. And as such, they can struggle against a welfare system that both stigmatises and penalises their efforts to make a living.

    My recent research along with my co-researcher Sara Nadin, sheds light on these often overlooked women, who work informally while claiming state benefits. It shows the precarious and gendered nature of informal self-employment and the difficulties of transitioning into formal work.

    Informal self-employment is not an entrepreneurial aspiration but a necessity for the women in our study. Domestic responsibilities, a lack of formal qualifications and limited job opportunities can force these women into work that fits around their caregiving roles. From cleaning and childcare to sewing and catering, these women engage in work that remains invisible and unrecognised.

    Their earnings – often meagre and inconsistent – help cover basic necessities, yet they live in constant fear of exposure and “getting caught by the taxman”.

    The UK’s welfare system, with its strict and punitive conditions, places them in an impossible situation. If they declare their income, they risk losing benefits essential for survival. If they continue working informally, they face criminalisation and stigma as “benefits cheats”.

    Angela (not her real name) is an unregistered child minder. She told us she recognises the drawbacks for everyone involved. She said: “I think it’s a shame that people have to go to these lengths to be able to cope financially. There should be better laws regarding employment, pay and conditions, so people choose that option instead of doing it unregistered or make a living on benefits. It is not good for anyone, the person doing it is under stress of being caught and the government and the country lose out on money.”

    There is a paradox of visibility here too. On one hand, these women need to remain hidden to avoid welfare sanctions. On the other, they rely on word-of-mouth to attract business. This delicate balancing act forces them into an in-between space, where they can neither fully integrate into the formal economy nor retreat into unemployment.

    And this is no short-term situation. The women we interviewed had been informally self-employed for an extended period – one for more than ten years.

    While some women did say they wanted to formalise and grow their businesses, they felt the risks were too high. The unpredictability of their earnings, coupled with the loss of benefits, can make it financially unviable.

    As one woman put it: “I’d like to make a proper go of it, but it’s really scary. What if I can’t get enough clients?”

    A broken system

    Successive UK governments have promoted self-employment as a route out of poverty and worklessness, yet welfare policies often work against women trying to become financially independent. The introduction of Universal Credit has exacerbated the issue, imposing strict minimum-income thresholds that self-employed workers can struggle to meet. This primarily affects women, who are less able to work full-time and more likely to be found in low-paid sectors of self-employment.

    In fact, it has been argued that the UK’s Universal Credit welfare scheme actively limits claimants’ ability to get into formal self-employment. Instead of supporting entrepreneurship, the system has been found effectively to discourage it.

    Policy changes could help break this cycle. Introducing an “earnings disregard”, where informal workers can earn a set amount without affecting their benefits, would provide a crucial safety net. And supporting women transitioning from informal to formal self-employment – through grants, tax breaks and accessible business education – could empower them to grow their businesses formally and sustainably, without fear of financial ruin.

    Rather than criminalising those struggling to make ends meet, policymakers should recognise the valuable role these women play in their communities. Whether they’re caring for children, cleaning homes or helping busy families with their ironing, their services provide affordable options for other low-income families. This creates a grassroots support network for the formally employed that is overlooked and undervalued.

    For real change to happen, the conversation around informal self-employment must shift. Instead of treating this work as a problem to be eradicated, it should be acknowledged as part of the broader economic fabric – one that deserves protection and support.

    The women in this study are not merely informal workers. They are survivors navigating an unforgiving system. Their experiences challenge the simplistic notion that self-employment is a solution to poverty. Without changes to both welfare and self-employment policies, they will remain in the shadows – enterprising but invisible, offering valuable local services but criminalised.

    It’s time for a policy rethink that values and supports all workers, regardless of where they fall on the economic spectrum.

    Sally Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How stigma, fear and the UK welfare system harm women in informal self-employment – https://theconversation.com/how-stigma-fear-and-the-uk-welfare-system-harm-women-in-informal-self-employment-250125

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A new study reveals the structure of violent winds 1,300 light years away

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Vivien Parmentier, Professeur junior spécialiste des atmosphères d’exoplanètes au laboratoire LAGRANGE, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, CNRS, Université Côte d’Azur

    The largest telescopes in the world are used to look at the atmospheres of planets orbiting other stars and located at astronomical distances. Y. Beletsky(LCO)/ESO, CC BY

    The planet WASP-121b is extreme. It’s a gas giant almost twice as big as Jupiter orbiting extremely close to its star–50 times closer than the Earth does around the Sun. WASP-121b is so close to its star that tidal forces have locked its rotation in a “resonance”: the planet always shows the same face to its star, like the Moon to the Earth. Therefore, one side of WASP-121b constantly bakes in light whereas the other is in perpetual night. This difference causes huge variations in temperature across the planet. It can be more than 3,000°C on one side and drop 1,500°C on the other.

    This huge temperature contrast is the source of violent winds, blowing several kilometres per second, which try to redistribute the energy from day to night. Until now, we had to guess the strength and direction of the winds with indirect measurements, such as measurements of the planet’s temperature. In recent years, with the arrival of new instruments on giant telescopes, we’ve been able to directly measure the wind speed of certain exoplanets, including WASP-121b.

    In our study published in the journal Nature that was conducted by my colleague, Julia Seidel, we not only looked at wind speed on an exoplanet, but also at how these winds vary with altitude. We were able to measure for the first time that winds in the deepest layers of the atmosphere are very different from those at higher altitudes. Put it this way: on Earth, winds blowing a few dozen kilometres per hour already make it hard to ride a bike; on WASP-121b, pedalling would be impossible, because the winds are a hundred times faster.

    Our measurements reveal the behaviour of a pivotal zone of the atmosphere that forms the link between the deep atmosphere–usually surveyed by telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope–and the outer zones where the atmosphere escapes into space, blown by the wind coming from its star.

    How did we measure the atmosphere of a planet millions of billions of kilometres away?

    To make our measurements, we used one of the most precise spectrographs on Earth, mounted on the largest telescope available to us: ESPRESSO at the European Southern Observatory (ESO) Very Large Telescope (VLT), located in the Atacama desert in Chile. To collect as much light as possible, we combined the light from the VLT’s four 8-metre diameter telescopes. Thanks to this combination, which is still being tested, we collected as much light as would a 16-metre diameter telescope–which would be larger than any optical telescope on Earth.

    The ultra-precise ESPRESSO spectrograph then enabled us to separate the light from the planet into 1.3 million wavelengths. This allows us to observe as many colours in the visible spectrum. This precision is necessary to detect different types of atoms in the planet’s atmosphere. This time, we studied how three different types of atoms–absorb light from the star: hydrogen, sodium and iron (all in a gaseous state, given the very high temperatures).

    By measuring the position of these spectral lines very precisely, we were able to directly measure the speed of these atoms. The Doppler effect tells us that an atom coming toward us will absorb more blue light, while an atom moving away from us will absorb more red light. By measuring the absorption wavelength of each of these atoms, we have as many different measurements of the wind speed on this planet.

    We found that the lines of the different atoms tell different stories. Iron moves at 5 kilometres per second from the substellar point (the region of the planet closest to its host star) to the anti-stellar point (the most distant) in a very symmetrical way. Sodium, on the other hand, splits in two: some of the atoms move like iron, while the others move at the equator directly from east to west four times faster, at the staggering speed of 20 kilometres per second. Finally, hydrogen seems to move with the east-west current of sodium but, also, vertically, no doubt allowing it to escape from the planet.

    To reconcile all this, we calculated that these three different atoms are, in fact, in different parts of the atmosphere. While iron atoms lie at the deeper layers, where symmetrical circulation is expected, sodium and hydrogen let us probe much higher layers, where the planet’s atmosphere is blown by the wind coming from its host star. This stellar wind, combined with the rotation of the planet, probably carries the material asymmetrically, with a preferential direction given by the rotation of the planet.

    There are violent winds in the atmosphere of WASP-121b. The three types of atoms travel at different speeds, helping to reconstruct the structure of the atmosphere, even though the planet is millions of billions of kilometres away from Earth.
    ESO/M. Kornmesser, CC BY

    Why study the atmospheres of exoplanets?

    WASP-121b is one of those giant gaseous planets with temperatures of over 1,000°C that are known as “hot Jupiters”. The first observation of these planets by Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz (which later earned them a Nobel Prize in Physics) came as a surprise in 1995, particularly because planetary formation models predicted that these giant planets could not form so close to their star. Mayor and Queloz’s observation made us realise that planets do not necessarily form where they are currently located. Instead, they can migrate, i.e., move around in their youth.

    How far from their star do “hot Jupiters” form? Over what distances do these objects migrate in their infancy? Why did the Jupiter in our solar system not migrate toward the Sun? (We’re lucky it didn’t, because it would have sent Earth into our star at the same time.)

    Some answers to these questions may lie in the atmosphere of exoplanets, which exhibit traces of the conditions of their formation. However, variations in temperature or chemical composition within each atmosphere can radically skew the abundance measurements that we are trying to take with large telescopes such as the James Webb. In order to exploit our measurements, we first need to grasp how complex these atmospheres are.

    To do this, we need to understand the fundamental mechanisms that govern the atmosphere of these planets. In the solar system, winds can be measured directly by, for example, looking at how fast clouds move. On exoplanets, we cannot see any details directly.

    In particular, “hot Jupiters” orbit so close to their stars that we cannot separate them spatially and take photos of the exoplanets. Instead, from among the thousands of known exoplanets, we select those that have the good taste to periodically pass between their star and us. During this “transit”, light from the star is filtered by the planet’s atmosphere, which allows us to measure the signs of absorption by different atoms or molecules. In general, the data we obtain are not good enough to separate the light that passes on one side of the planet from the other, and we end up with an average of what the atmosphere has absorbed. As conditions along the atmospheric limb (i.e., the slice of atmosphere surrounding a planet as observed from space) can vary drastically, interpreting the final average is often a headache.

    This time, by using a telescope that, in effect, is larger than any other optical telescope on Earth, and combining it with an extremely precise spectrograph, we were able to separate the signal absorbed by the eastern side of the planet’s limb from the signal absorbed by the western side. This allowed us to measure the spatial variation of the winds in the planet.

    The future of atmospheric study of exoplanets

    Europe is currently building the next generation of telescopes, led by the ESO’s Extremely Large Telescope, which is scheduled for 2030. The ELT will have a mirror 30 metres in diameter, twice the size of the telescope we obtained by combining the light from the four 8-metre telescopes of the VLT.

    This giant telescope will gather even more precise details about the atmospheres of exoplanets. In particular, it will measure the winds in exoplanets both smaller and colder than “hot Jupiters”.

    But what we are all really waiting for is the ELT’s ability to measure the presence of molecules in the atmosphere of rocky planets orbiting in the habitable zone of their star, where water may be present in a liquid state.

    The EXOWINDS project is supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR), which funds project-based research in France. Its mission is to support and promote the development of fundamental and applied research in all disciplines, and to strengthen the dialogue between science and society. For more information, visit the ANR website.

    Vivien Parmentier received funding from the French National Research Agency (exowinds, ANR-23-CE31-0001-01).

    Julia Victoria Seidel is an ESO (European Southern Observatory) Research Fellow.

    – ref. A new study reveals the structure of violent winds 1,300 light years away – https://theconversation.com/a-new-study-reveals-the-structure-of-violent-winds-1-300-light-years-away-250187

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mati Diop is a new star of African cinema – what her award-winning movies are about

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By David Murphy, Professor of French and Postcolonial Studies, University of Strathclyde

    Mati Diop has cinema in her blood. The 42-year-old Senegalese-French actress launched her feature film directing career in spectacular fashion with Atlantics, which took the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival in 2019 and won a string of awards.

    Her documentary Dahomey has made similar waves and was longlisted for the 2025 Oscars. We asked Senegalese film scholar David Murphy to tell us more.

    Who is Mati Diop?

    Mati Diop is a hugely talented and innovative film director. She is also an accomplished actor who has starred in a number of French films, in particular Claire Denis’s 35 Shots of Rum.

    She was born in Paris in 1982 and was raised in France, but frequently visited Senegal during her childhood, as she comes from a Senegalese cultural dynasty.

    Her father is Wasis Diop, an inventive and experimental musician who fuses Senegalese folk music with western pop and jazz. Her uncle was the maverick Senegalese filmmaker, Djibril Diop Mambéty. He directed classics like Touki Bouki and Hyenas. For good measure, her mother, Christine Brossard, is involved in the French art world and is a photographer.

    Although she had previously made short films, Diop gained global attention in 2019 when she won a prestigious award at the Cannes Film Festival for her first feature-length fiction film, Atlantics.

    Her documentary Dahomey won the top award at the 2024 Berlin International Film Festival. Over the past few years, Diop has become established as one of the most creative artistic voices making films about contemporary Africa.

    What’s Dahomey about?

    Dahomey is a documentary about a contentious issue, the repatriation of looted African art works from western museums.

    The objects – 26 royal treasures – were taken from the pre-colonial kingdom of Dahomey (in today’s Benin). President Emmanuel Macron of France has voiced his support for the return of such objects and a slow, piecemeal process of repatriation has now begun.

    On the surface, the story of Dahomey might not seem to be particularly dramatic. Taking objects from a museum in Paris and sending them to a museum in Benin might be politically important and symbolic. But how do you make a creative, insightful and entertaining film about it that also appeals to a wide audience? Well, essentially, Diop weaves a tale that seeks to explore what it means for Africans that this heritage is being returned. To do that, she gives voice to Africans, whether heritage professionals, students or the general public.

    In her most daring creative gesture, she also gives voice to one of the objects being returned, a magnificent, life-sized wooden statue of King Ghézo (who ruled Dahomey in the 1800s), depicted as half-man, half-bird. Many of the items that are displayed in European museums as beautiful but inanimate objects in fact played a highly significant spiritual role in precolonial societies. Essentially, they formed a bridge between the living and the spirit world, and Diop is interested in exploring what it might mean to these spirits to return to an Africa that has been transformed in their absence.

    So, Dahomey is not your average documentary. There’s no narrative voiceover that explains the context of the journey home for these objects. Apart from a few on-screen captions explaining the big picture, viewers must piece together the story and decipher its meaning by themselves.

    In the first half of the film, we see the curators from Benin and French workmen moving through the Quai Branly Museum in Paris. They assess the condition of the fragile objects as they make an inventory of them and box them safely for the trip. At first, theirs are the only voices we hear.



    Read more:
    The award-winning African documentary project that goes inside the lives of migrants

    But then we begin to hear the deep, electronically distorted voice of the statue of King Ghézo who awakens from a long slumber. In this voiceover (written by the Haitian author Makenzy Orcel), Ghézo reflects on the sense of dislocation and confusion at being taken from Africa, his journey over the sea to be exhibited in a museum in Paris, his memories of the continent he left behind.

    Once the objects arrive in Benin, the film follows a reverse process. The camera dwells on the African workmen overseeing their installation, interspersed with the voice of the statue trying to make sense of the Africa to which he has returned.

    The longest section of the film gives voice to local university students debating what it means to return this heritage. While some view the process as vital, others see it as a distraction from the major issues facing the continent. The film does not seek to nudge the viewer to take sides. What is important is that different African voices are heard so that Africans can reach their own informed decisions.

    What’s Atlantics about?

    Atlantics is a film about the migration crisis that sees many young Senegalese men (and some women) set off from the coast on dangerous journeys in small fishing boats to try and reach the economic promised land of Europe (in this instance, the Canary Islands). But the film is also a love story about a young couple, Ada and Souleiman.

    With a group of young men, many cheated of their wages by a corrupt local businessman, Souleiman embarks on the dangerous journey. The bereft girlfriends and sisters wait for news of their boyfriends and brothers and ultimately take revenge on the businessman. I can’t tell you precisely how this is done without spoiling the plot but let’s just say that the film is a striking mix of social drama and supernatural thriller.

    Why is her contribution to film important?

    Above all else, Mati Diop is a great storyteller. Atlantics and Dahomey are films that take important current affairs as their starting point, and they weave passionate, complex and strange stories around them.

    They’re strange not because Diop is trying to be artistically eccentric, but because life is fundamentally strange and defies easy explanation. This is an artistic standpoint that her uncle would have understood.



    Read more:
    Souleymane Cissé has died. He was one of Africa’s boldest and most pioneering film-makers

    Like his work, Diop’s fiction films contain long sections dwelling obsessively on the detail of “real” life while her documentaries contain many fictional elements. In fact, her short 2013 documentary A Thousand Suns is a wonderful homage to the beautiful strangeness of Mambety’s work. In a remarkable blend of fact and fiction, she traces the story of the actors who played the young couple in his avant-garde masterpiece, Touki Bouki.

    In the work of both uncle and niece, the real and the fictional, the strange and the mundane are mixed together to make a mysterious and strikingly original body of work that defies categorisation.

    David Murphy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mati Diop is a new star of African cinema – what her award-winning movies are about – https://theconversation.com/mati-diop-is-a-new-star-of-african-cinema-what-her-award-winning-movies-are-about-250417

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pope Francis: why his papacy matters for Africa – and for the world’s poor and marginalised

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Stan Chu Ilo, Research Professor, World Christianity and African Studies, DePaul University

    Pope Francis remains in a critical condition and hospitalised as he battles pneumonia in both lungs. The first pope from the Americas and also the first to come from outside the west in the modern era, the Argentinian was elected leader of the Catholic church on 13 March 2013. At the time, the church was beset by crises, from corruption to clerical sexual abuse. Stan Chu Ilo, a Catholic priest and a research professor of African studies and world Catholicism, examines the milestones in the life, work and legacy of Pope Francis.

    What did Pope Francis inherit when he took over in 2013?

    By the time the Argentinian Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio was elected pope in 2013 there was a general feeling that the Catholic church was reaching the end of an era.

    By the end of 2012 what was in the news about the church included the revelation of papal secrets by the papal butler. These details were published in a book by the Italian journalist Gianluigi Nuzzi, titled His Holiness: The Secret Files of Pope Benedict. The book portrayed the Vatican as a corrupt hotbed of jealousy, intrigue and underhanded factional fighting.

    The revelations caused the church a great deal of embarrassment.

    Some of the challenges facing the church which the ageing Pope Benedict XVI could no longer handle included:

    Cardinal Bergoglio was elected by the Catholic cardinals with a mandate to clean up the church and reform the Vatican and its bureaucracy. He was to institute processes and procedures for transparency, accountability and renewal of the church and its structures, and address the lingering scandals of clerical abuse.

    What is his global papal role and legacy?

    Three key things have defined his papal role and legacy.

    First is concentrating on the core competence of the church: serving the poor and the marginalised. This is what the founder of the Christian religion, Jesus Christ, did.

    Francis has focused the Catholic church and the entire world on one mission: helping the poor, addressing global inequalities, speaking for the voiceless, and placing the attention of the world on those on the periphery.

    He also chose to live simply, forsaking the pomp and pageantry of the papacy.

    Secondly, he changed the way the Catholic church’s message is communicated. In his programmatic document, Evangelii Gaudium, he called the church to what he calls “missionary conversion”. His thinking is that everything that is done in the church must be about proclaiming the good news to a wounded and broken world.

    His central message has been that of mercy towards all, an end to wars, our common humanity and the closeness of God to those who suffer. The suffering in the world continues to grow because of injustice, greed, selfishness and pride. He has also focused on symbols and simple style to press home his message, like celebrating mass at a wall that divides the United States and Mexico.



    Read more:
    Pope Francis: the first post-colonial papacy to deliver messages that resonate with Africans

    In 2015 he made a risky trip to Bangui, the capital of Central African Republic, during a time of war and tension between the fighting factions of the Muslim Seleka and the Christian anti-balaka. He drove on the Popemobile with both the highest ranking Muslim cleric in the country and his Christian counterpart and visited both a Christian church and a mosque to press home the message of peace.

    The third strategy is restructuring the church and reforming the Vatican bank.

    He created the G8 (a representative council of cardinals from every part of the world) to advise him, calling the Catholic church to a synod for dialogue on every aspect of the life of the church. This effort was unprecedented.

    He also overhauled the procedures for the synod of bishops, making it more participatory, and gave women and the non-ordained voting rights. He has also shaken up the membership of the Vatican department that picks bishops to include women. He appointed the first woman (Sr Simone Brambilla) to lead a major Vatican department and to have a cardinal as her deputy. Another woman (Sr Raffaella Petrini) was named the first woman governor of the Vatican City State.

    What has he done to strengthen the Catholic church in Africa?

    Three things stand out.

    First, he reflected the concerns of people on the continent with his message against imperialism, colonialism, exploitation of the poor by the rich, global inequality, neo-liberal capitalism and ecological injustice. Pope Francis became a voice for Africa. When he visited Kenya in 2015, he chose to visit the slums of Nairobi to proclaim the gospel of liberation to the forsaken of society. He called on African governments to guarantee for the poor and all citizens access to land, lodging and labour.

    In a sense, Pope Francis embodies the message of decolonisation and is driven in part by the liberation theology that developed in Latin America. This theology tied religious faith with liberation of the people from structures of injustice and structural violence.

    Secondly, he has encouraged African Catholics to develop Africa’s own unique approach to pastoral life and addressing social issues in Africa. Particularly, Pope Francis believes in decentralisation and local processes in meeting local challenges. He has said many times that it is not necessary that all problems in the church be solved by the pope at the Roman centre of the church.

    In this way, he has encouraged the growth and development of African priorities and cultural adaptation to the Catholic faith. He has also encouraged greater transparency and accountability among African bishops and given African Catholic universities and seminaries greater autonomy to develop their own educational priorities and programmes.

    Thirdly, Pope Francis has a very deep connection to Africa’s young people. He has encouraged and supported initiatives and programmes to strengthen the agency of young people, to give them hope and support their personal, spiritual and professional development. For the first time in history, on 1 November 2022, Pope Francis met virtually with more than 1,000 young Africans for an hour. I helped organise this meeting. He answered their questions and encouraged them to fight for what they believe.

    What’s gone wrong, what’s gone well under his watch?

    Pope Francis’s reform could be termed a movement from a church of a few where priests and bishops and the pope call the shots to a church of the people of God where everyone’s voice matters and where everyone’s concerns and needs are catered to.

    He has quietly changed the tone of the message and the style of the leadership at the Vatican.

    Granted, he has not substantially altered the content of that message, which is often seen as conservative, Eurocentric, and resistant to cultural pluralism and social change. But he is chipping away at its foundations through inclusion and an openness to hearing the voices of everyone, including those who do not agree with the church’s position. In doing this, he has shifted the priorities and practices of the Catholic church regarding such core issues as power and authority.

    He has opened the doors to the voices of the marginalised in the church — women, the poor, the LGBTQi+ community, and those who have disaffiliated from the church. Many African Catholics would love to see more African representation at the Vatican, and many of them also worry about the widening division in the church, particularly driven by cultural and ideological battles in the west that have nothing to do with the social and ecclesial context of Africa.

    Why does his papacy matter?

    Pope Francis is the first pope from the Americas, the first Jesuit pope, the first to choose the name Francis and the first to come from outside the west in the modern era. He chose the name Francis because he wanted to focus his papacy on the poor, emulating St Francis of Assisi.

    In a sense, Pope Francis has redefined what religion and spirituality mean for Catholicism. It’s not laying down and enforcing the law without mercy, it is caring for our neighbours and the Earth. This is the kind of religion the world needs today.

    Stan Chu Ilo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pope Francis: why his papacy matters for Africa – and for the world’s poor and marginalised – https://theconversation.com/pope-francis-why-his-papacy-matters-for-africa-and-for-the-worlds-poor-and-marginalised-251059

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why incest porn is more common and harmful than you think

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Clare McGlynn, Professor of Law, Durham University

    Delbo Andrea/Shutterstock

    Incest porn is finally facing long overdue scrutiny. The government’s porn review recommends strengthening the extreme porn law to include incest porn and mandate its removal. The review also calls for much more proactive regulation of the porn industry, and bans on misogynistic, degrading and violent pornography, including sexual strangulation.

    These proposed changes address a glaring gap in regulation. While pornographic videos depicting incest porn are unlawful offline, there are no controls over its online distribution or possession. Strengthening extreme porn laws to include incest would signal a shift towards a society no longer willing to normalise and trivialise child sexual abuse and incest.

    Any cursory visit today to the most popular porn websites reveals a continuous stream of incest material.

    To be clear, I’m talking about porn depicting sexual activity between family members, particularly the vast swathes of material with (step)fathers and (step)brothers having sex with very young-looking girls. They may be actors over 18, but they are often in children’s clothes, surrounded by children’s toys, with pigtails, braces and other markers of childhood.

    The scenarios are often about creeping into young girls’ bedrooms, coercing or grooming them into sex. The graphic titles of videos describe sex between (step)fathers and daughters. Alarmingly, they often reproduce the justifications of real-life abusers, such as “little secret between daddy and his girl”. These videos are viewed and given the thumbs up online by millions.

    The new proposals target the depiction of unlawful sexual activity between family members. This includes any daddy-daughter or brother-sister scenarios as this is always a sexual offence. But it would not cover consensual sexual activity between step-parents and step-children over 18, as this is not currently unlawful. Nor would it cover instances where terms like daddy or stepmom are simply used as descriptors for older actors.

    Growing popularity

    Incest porn wasn’t always so common. In the 1980s, porn content studies found only 3% of material was incest-related. One of the first studies of internet porn, in 2006, found only 1% portrayed incest. But by 2014, incest porn was on Pornhub’s list of most popular searches.

    My own research with colleagues revealed that one in eight titles on the homepages of the most popular porn websites described sexual violence, with sexual activity between family members the largest category of abusive content. Professor Elaine Craig’s recent study also confirms the prevalence of incest-related themes on the most popular porn platforms.

    The changing business model of porn in the internet age means that the prevalence of incest porn is as much about platforms promoting it, as it is about users seeking it out. The largest porn websites use algorithmic models to maximise user engagement, keeping users hooked, collecting more data and selling more advertising. Just like social media, porn websites prioritise extreme, shocking, exploitative and divisive material, such as incest content.

    Pornography writes our sexual scripts

    Porn, therefore, shapes our sexual scripts, the norms we internalise about what is expected, normal and acceptable in sexual relationships. Research on sexual strangulation, for example, finds that more frequent consumption of porn leads to greater exposure to pornographic depictions of sexual strangulation which, in turn, predicted a higher likelihood of strangling sexual partners.

    The largest study to date of men who have sexually offended against children found that they were 11 times more likely to watch violent porn and 27 times more likely to view bestiality porn.

    Porn consumed by millions (there are 130 million visitors a day to Pornhub) necessarily shapes our social environment, and in turn our attitudes and sexual practices.

    Evidence suggests pornography shapes our sexual scripts.
    Torwai Studio/Shutterstock

    The prevalence of incest-themed content matters, as it normalises and legitimises ideas of sexual activity between family members – particularly involving young girls. When these messages are consumed by millions every day, the influence extends beyond individual users and filters into broader cultural attitudes.



    Read more:
    Sexual strangulation has become popular – but that doesn’t mean it’s wanted

    In time, we may become desensitised, less likely to understand the prevalence of child sexual abuse, or its seriousness. The claim that incest porn is fantasy without real-world effects assumes incest is rare, abhorrent. But it’s not.

    It’s commonplace, with 500,000 children in England and Wales sexually abused each year. These are predominantly girls, with (step)fathers accounting for up to half of the perpetrators.

    From my work in this field, it is clear to me that these sexual scripts influence society in various ways, including making us less likely to believe survivors. We may blame the victims, having internalised that girls entice family members into sex. And it seems we become less concerned about government inaction on child sexual abuse as it no longer seems serious.

    Time for change

    Critics demand evidence of direct causation, asking for proof that watching specific videos of incest porn leads to specific acts of incest. But this narrow framing (I argue, deliberately) misses the point. Sexual violence is complex and influenced by a range of factors. No study can isolate porn as the sole cause of any particular act, nor should we expect it to.

    Rejecting a direct causal relationship is not the same as rejecting any relationship. We need to ask, in a culture saturated with incest porn, are we more likely to tolerate, excuse or dismiss the realities of incest and sexual abuse? Probably – and I would argue that is enough.

    If we continue to allow incest porn to proliferate, we risk perpetuating a culture that trivialises abuse, undermines survivors and distorts our understanding of what is acceptable in sexual relationships. It is time to stop debating whether pornography causes direct harm in a narrow sense, but to confront the broader reality that it is shaping our attitudes and society in profoundly damaging ways.

    Clare McGlynn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why incest porn is more common and harmful than you think – https://theconversation.com/why-incest-porn-is-more-common-and-harmful-than-you-think-247512

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can making the NHS cleaner slow the spread of disease?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan R. Goodman, Research Associate, Public Health, University of Cambridge

    Several weeks ago, I visited a local NHS urgent care centre with my toddler on what might be called a semi-annual pilgrimage related to having a child in nursery. Owing to what is now a typical three- or four-hour wait, during which he made a recovery, I had the time to notice the hospital’s waiting room cleaning practices. They amounted to someone pushing a mop around the floor and in the process moving, rather than removing, various fluids and items that had probably amassed over the preceding several hours.

    About 36 hours later, our toddler woke up with a stomach bug. The cleaning practices I saw – coupled with my inability to keep him from touching a lot of surfaces in the hospital, including the floor – suggested to me that this was not a coincidence.

    Individual behaviour and practices play a role in the spread of disease. And many times it is our collective actions that lead to contagion, even if our goal is to prevent it.

    Given the NHS has recently recorded its highest ever rate of norovirus cases – with the bug making up more than one in 100 hospitalisations in the country – we are due for a rethink about how we understand the social elements of illness.

    As a social scientist working in public health, I’ve learned that diseases conform to our behaviour, which can keep us one step ahead – or leave us one behind.

    How we develop policy around contagion is one example. Recently, NHS England published new national standards of cleanliness for NHS Trusts – the most recent update since 2021. These standards define cleanliness, what materials should be used and the frequencies necessary for adequate cleaning.

    The guidelines are, unsurprisingly, very boring, but what stands out to me is the emphasis on which spaces and surfaces are the most likely to be contaminated, rather than taking a contextual approach to the relationship between people, germs and spaces.

    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), by contrast, uses a more complex function. Risk is evaluated by combining the probability of contamination of an item or surface, the vulnerability of patients and the potential for exposure within the space.

    A waiting room where people have been vomiting, for example, would be taken more seriously as a risky area using these guidelines than the brute force approach taken by the NHS.

    Another important element of risk, though one not evaluated explicitly in any policy guideline, is how germs evolve in response to our efforts against them.

    Staphylococcus aureus bacteria, for example, are typically treated by antibiotics, though the rise of the methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) subtype has complicated patient care around the world.

    More recently, bacteria called carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales (CPEs) have started spreading in hospitals, and are both highly contagious and difficult to treat.

    Both MRSA and CPEs are, however, direct results of our efforts to combat bacteria: our use of antibiotics selects, evolutionarily speaking, for resistance to our treatments.

    Imperial College London’s Fleming Initiative, named after the discoverer of the first antibiotic, penicillin, is an international effort that aims to stymie the spread of these germs, but they nonetheless present a real and serious risk to patients everywhere.

    Clostridioides difficile, a bacterium linked with painful stomach bugs, has also shown increasing resistance to antibiotics, particularly strains found in hospitals. What’s worse, evidence from 2023 suggests C difficile may even be resistant to bleach, which is typically successful at killing almost all germs and was found, in the past, to work against this bacterium, too.

    Everyone plays a role

    Blunt policies specifying cleaning schedules without reference to context are unlikely to be effective in a world of fast-evolving germs. What’s needed, instead, is a population-level understanding about how everyone plays a role in contagion and in its containment. We’re part of a broader ecosystem that bacteria and viruses live within, and which evolve to thrive when we become complacent in our behaviour.

    The CDC’s guidelines embrace context, but the work doesn’t stop with hospital cleaning staff – who in the UK, by the way, earn an average of £21,000 a year for the critical work they do. Anyone who works in or visits a healthcare space has a responsibility to those nearby, whether that involves maintaining distance between people or shielding others from their own illness.

    We can’t expect stretched systems and overworked employees to prevent the spread of germs. And the UK’s massive norovirus outbreak is a symptom itself of how bad we are at preventing viral contagion.

    Yet people – including patients and their carers like me – can do a lot more than just idly watch dirty mops float by in waiting areas. We can educate ourselves about current risks, avoid where possible spaces with a high risk of contamination, and stay home to prevent infecting others, for example in the workplace.

    Social approaches should be built into any framework that aims to combat disease. Knowledge, unlike antibiotics and bleach, is free – and the spread of information about how to help prevent contagion can only be good for healthcare systems and society more broadly.

    Jonathan R. Goodman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can making the NHS cleaner slow the spread of disease? – https://theconversation.com/can-making-the-nhs-cleaner-slow-the-spread-of-disease-249647

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump, Putin and the authoritarian take on constitutionalism

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Lovell, Professor of Modern History, King’s College London

    When Donald Trump called Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” for his failure to hold elections, it was a shocking moment. Even by the topsy-turvy standards of the current US administration, this looked like deliberate ignorance of the facts. Ukrainian law and the electoral code state that elections cannot be held while martial law is in place. That leaves aside the practical impossibility of ensuring fair, free and secure elections during war on the scale Russia is inflicting on Ukraine.

    In making this dangerous intervention, the US president was simply repeating a well-established trope of Russian propaganda. For some time, the Kremlin has been casting aspersions on the legitimacy of Zelensky. Vladimir Putin has been using this as a pretext to allow him to sidestep any direct contact with the (legitimately elected) Ukrainian president.

    It is not the first time that Russia has cited a concern for constitutional propriety in its Ukraine policy. The Kremlin condemned both the orange revolution of 2004 (which forced a rerun of a rigged presidential election) and the Euromaidan protests of 2013-14 (which chased out the Russia-friendly president Viktor Yanukovych) as cases of anti-constitutional mob rule ousting a legitimately elected leader.

    Russia’s defence of constitutional legitimacy has been selective and self-interested. For two decades, it has energetically – and often unconstitutionally – meddled in the political processes of Ukraine and other neighbouring states. Electoral outcomes are sacrosanct only when they confirm pro-Russian candidates in power. No matter if these results were secured by massive fraud and intimidation.

    Meanwhile, when Putin found his own constitution an inconvenience, he had it changed in a referendum which handed him the opportunity to retain power until 2036.

    Making things ‘legal’

    But there is more than pure cynicism to the Russian government’s embrace of constitutional rhetoric. This belief in the need for power to have a legal framework has a long tradition behind it. Russia imposed rapid-fire referendums in Crimea in 2014 and then in four regions of occupied Ukraine in 2022 in an attempt to give a legal basis to its military occupation of these territories.

    There were echoes of the shotgun plebiscites conducted in 1939-41 in eastern Poland, Bessarabia and the Baltic states. Almost immediately after it annexed these territories, the Soviet state forced the population into participating in the Stalinist version of democracy. These were votes with only one candidate on the ballot paper. The Soviet Union was desperately poor, its state apparatus was overstretched and underresourced – but money and personnel were found for these choreographed elections.

    The same logic applied in the Soviet Union “proper”. In 1918, at the very start of the civil war that followed the October revolution, the Bolsheviks adopted a constitution for the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. This was amplified by a Soviet constitution in 1924 that established the elected Congress of Soviets as the supreme organ of state power (even if the Communist Party really pulled the strings).

    Just over a decade later, Stalin found it necessary to update the constitution. He wanted it reflect what he saw as the progress made towards socialism in the first two decades after the revolution. The result, after extensive if largely orchestrated public discussion, was the 1936 constitution. This, among other things, enshrined universal suffrage elections to a national representative body: the Supreme Soviet.

    This was not to be the end of the Soviet constitutional road. A generation later, in the early 1960s, the post-Stalin leadership felt the need to refresh and amplify the 1936 document. It took until 1977 for a new constitution finally to be agreed and adopted, but it was clear that this authoritarian state took “socialist legality” very seriously indeed. Constitutional law might have been considered malleable by the Communist party, but it was important for it to exist and to withstand challenge, whether from internal dissidents or from cold war adversaries.

    Why have a constitution?

    To understand the significance of constitutions and political institutions in the USSR and post-Soviet Russia, it’s worth considering what function constitutions actually perform. Western nations tend to think of them as documents setting out the relationship between different branches of government: executive, legislative, judicial. They contain some limitation on the powers of the executive. Certainly, this is how the US constitution – which is often seen as the archetype of a western state constitution – is most commonly viewed.

    Defining a new country: the US constitution.
    https://pixy.org/1262083/

    But there has long been another way of viewing constitutions: as a symbol of the integrity and robustness of the state. As British historian Linda Colley has shown, between the mid-18th and the early 20th centuries, constitutions became perhaps the main currency of legitimacy for a nation state. To have a constitution was, above all, a way to stake a claim to exist in a dangerous world inhabited by predatory empires.

    For some of those empires, constitutions served as a way of holding together their own large and disparate territories. This tended to work by, for example, conceding a degree of representation to minority groups in the hope of preempting separatist movements. On close inspection, this was also true of the US constitution. It was a document designed to bring and hold the original 13 states together and establish the US as an international power.

    Constitutions and elections have always been as much about power, legitimacy and state integrity as about representation – democratic or otherwise – or limitations on government. For states that are not major powers, the legitimacy needs to be projected externally as much as internally.

    Ukraine now finds the legitimacy of its constitution under threat from both the dominant regional power – Russia – and the world power of the US. It falls on Europe – a region almost defined by its commitment to constitutional democracy – to articulate and defend an alternative vision.

    European leaders – and their electorates – need to act on the belief that democracy and sovereignty are not on separate tracks but belong together. Ukraine deserves to retain its free elections, but it also deserves a state.

    Stephen Lovell is currently at work on a project on the history of voting in the Russian Empire and USSR funded by a Major Research Fellowship from the Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. Trump, Putin and the authoritarian take on constitutionalism – https://theconversation.com/trump-putin-and-the-authoritarian-take-on-constitutionalism-250662

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Botanic gardens are struggling to keep up with the biodiversity crisis – here’s what they can do

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Samuel Brockington, Professor of Evolution, Curator of the Cambridge University Botanic Garden, University of Cambridge

    As I wander around Cambridge University Botanic Garden, a tree called the Wollemi pine often catches my eye. It’s one of our rarest trees, and a distinctive looking pine, with broad needles and bark that reminds you of coco pops.

    First discovered in 1994 in a ravine in the Wollemi National Park in western Australia, only a few hundred survive in the wild. Although it has been on planet earth for hundreds of thousands of years, it is close to extinction. This tree species, like many others, represents a paradox: a rare and threatened species thriving in cultivation while its wild counterparts are just about hanging on to existence.

    As a curator of one of the world’s largest university botanic gardens, I often talk about the power of living collections. I also recognise their limits. The world’s botanic gardens hold an extraordinary diversity of plants. But, they are struggling to keep up with the accelerating biodiversity extinction crisis.

    Botanic gardens are often seen simply as peaceful retreats from the daily rat race or living museums where species are catalogued and displayed. But they are far more than that. Collectively, the world’s gardens form an extensive network of living plant collections, acting as refuges for biodiversity, sources of genetic material for research, and hubs for ecological restoration.

    Our recent study, published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, analysed 50 of the world’s largest living plant collections, currently growing 41% of all species in cultivation, and 500,000 individual plants. Our research spanned a century of digitised data and the findings are striking.

    Programmes like the International Conifer Conservation Programme, led by the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, have successfully safeguarded conifer species at risk of extinction. And Missouri Botanic Garden has changed how it manages its collection to prioritise threatened species, embedding conservation into its core activities. For example, they are increasingly only growing plant species that will naturally fit their own climate.

    Yet, despite these successes at specific gardens, our new research suggests that our current global system of botanic gardens is not keeping pace with the biodiversity crisis.

    We have hit “peak capacity” in botanic gardens – both in the number of plants grown and in the diversity of species held. This means we are growing as many individual plants as we possibly can, and our collections are as diverse as they can possibly be. While this may seem like a success, it reveals an uncomfortable truth: we are running out of space and resources to add more species.

    We have already passed “peak wild”. This means that we are collecting and sourcing less plants directly from the wild. Since 1992, the proportion of wild-collected plants entering botanic gardens has declined, alongside a decrease in material sourced across international political boundaries.

    This shift coincides with the Convention on Biological Diversity, which aims to regulate the trade of wild animals and plants and the use of genetic resources. While intended to promote fair sharing of the benefits of biodiversity, it has seems to have negatively effected the cultivation of plants outside of their native environment, even when this is being done to protect them. It has done this by limiting the movement of plant material.

    Collections are also becoming less globally diverse. Since the early 1990s, they have become increasingly regionalised, potentially limiting their capacity to act as global conservation networks.

    These trends expose a crucial challenge: if botanic gardens are to play a serious role in conservation, their curators must rethink how they collect, share and manage plant diversity.

    Some gardens are already adapting, exemplified by the global charity Botanic Gardens Conservation International’s (BGCI) Global Conservation Consortia, which are forming networks to safeguard specific tree genera.

    Central to their efforts is the concept of the “meta-collection” – a coordinated network of living collections that steward global plant diversity. Collaboration is essential, as no single institution has the capacity or expertise to conserve every threatened species alone. BGCI is leading efforts to collate data from thousands of collections worldwide. Its searchable platforms, such as PlantSearch and ThreatSearch, are leading the way in terms of the data tools institutions need to identify conservation priorities and track the status of threatened species.

    Smart next steps

    To save endangered plants, we need to focus on three key actions that make a real difference, much like how we protect the Wollemi pine.

    The rules around plant protection need to be fixed. Right now, complicated legal barriers can make it harder, not easier, to save plants. We need clear guidelines that help gardens and conservationists share and protect rare species responsibly, without getting stuck in red tape.

    We need to make better use of what we already have. Many botanic gardens are running out of space, so rather than collecting more and more species, we need to focus on preserving strong, genetically diverse populations of the most endangered plants – like ensuring the Wollemi pine has a secure future in multiple locations around the world.

    A global data system would allow scientists to see, in real time, where rare plants like the Wollemi pine are being grown, how well they’re doing, and where help is needed most. Better information means smarter conservation decisions.

    Botanic gardens have a long history of adaptation. They have evolved from medicinal gardens to scientific institutions, and now they must become conservation leaders on a global scale. The extinction crisis demands bold action, strategic collaboration and a willingness to rethink traditional approaches.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Samuel Brockington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Botanic gardens are struggling to keep up with the biodiversity crisis – here’s what they can do – https://theconversation.com/botanic-gardens-are-struggling-to-keep-up-with-the-biodiversity-crisis-heres-what-they-can-do-248722

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –