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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Legal fight against AI-generated child pornography is complicated – a legal scholar explains why, and how the law could catch up

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Wayne Unger, Assistant Professor of Law, Quinnipiac University

    Child pornography laws may be clear, but AI makes enforcement more difficult. AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

    The city of Lancaster, Pennsylvania, was shaken by revelations in December 2023 that two local teenage boys shared hundreds of nude images of girls in their community over a private chat on the social chat platform Discord. Witnesses said the photos easily could have been mistaken for real ones, but they were fake. The boys had used an artificial intelligence tool to superimpose real photos of girls’ faces onto sexually explicit images.

    With troves of real photos available on social media platforms, and AI tools becoming more accessible across the web, similar incidents have played out across the country, from California to Texas and Wisconsin. A recent survey by the Center for Democracy and Technology, a Washington D.C.-based nonprofit, found that 15% of students and 11% of teachers knew of at least one deepfake that depicted someone associated with their school in a sexually explicit or intimate manner.

    The Supreme Court has implicitly concluded that computer-generated pornographic images that are based on images of real children are illegal. The use of generative AI technologies to make deepfake pornographic images of minors almost certainly falls under the scope of that ruling. As a legal scholar who studies the intersection of constitutional law and emerging technologies, I see an emerging challenge to the status quo: AI-generated images that are fully fake but indistinguishable from real photos.

    Policing child sexual abuse material

    While the internet’s architecture has always made it difficult to control what is shared online, there are a few kinds of content that most regulatory authorities across the globe agree should be censored. Child pornography is at the top of that list.

    For decades, law enforcement agencies have worked with major tech companies to identify and remove this kind of material from the web, and to prosecute those who create or circulate it. But the advent of generative artificial intelligence and easy-to-access tools like the ones used in the Pennsylvania case present a vexing new challenge for such efforts.

    In the legal field, child pornography is generally referred to as child sexual abuse material, or CSAM, because the term better reflects the abuse that is depicted in the images and videos and the resulting trauma to the children involved. In 1982, the Supreme Court ruled that child pornography is not protected under the First Amendment because safeguarding the physical and psychological well-being of a minor is a compelling government interest that justifies laws that prohibit child sexual abuse material.

    That case, New York v. Ferber, effectively allowed the federal government and all 50 states to criminalize traditional child sexual abuse material. But a subsequent case, Ashcroft v. Free Speech Coalition from 2002, might complicate efforts to criminalize AI-generated child sexual abuse material. In that case, the court struck down a law that prohibited computer-generated child pornography, effectively rendering it legal.

    The government’s interest in protecting the physical and psychological well-being of children, the court found, was not implicated when such obscene material is computer generated. “Virtual child pornography is not ‘intrinsically related’ to the sexual abuse of children,” the court wrote.

    States move to criminalize AI-generated CSAM

    According to the child advocacy organization Enough Abuse, 37 states have criminalized AI-generated or AI-modified CSAM, either by amending existing child sexual abuse material laws or enacting new ones. More than half of those 37 states enacted new laws or amended their existing ones within the past year.

    California, for example, enacted Assembly Bill 1831 on Sept. 29, 2024, which amended its penal code to prohibit the creation, sale, possession and distribution of any “digitally altered or artificial-intelligence-generated matter” that depicts a person under 18 engaging in or simulating sexual conduct.

    Deepfake child pornography is a growing problem.

    While some of these state laws target the use of photos of real people to generate these deep fakes, others go further, defining child sexual abuse material as “any image of a person who appears to be a minor under 18 involved in sexual activity,” according to Enough Abuse. Laws like these that encompass images produced without depictions of real minors might run counter to the Supreme Court’s Ashcroft v. Free Speech Coalition ruling.

    Real vs. fake, and telling the difference

    Perhaps the most important part of the Ashcroft decision for emerging issues around AI-generated child sexual abuse material was part of the statute that the Supreme Court did not strike down. That provision of the law prohibited “more common and lower tech means of creating virtual (child sexual abuse material), known as computer morphing,” which involves taking pictures of real minors and morphing them into sexually explicit depictions.

    The court’s decision stated that these digitally altered sexually explicit depictions of minors “implicate the interests of real children and are in that sense closer to the images in Ferber.” The decision referenced the 1982 case, New York v. Ferber, in which the Supreme Court upheld a New York criminal statute that prohibited persons from knowingly promoting sexual performances by children under the age of 16.

    The court’s decisions in Ferber and Ashcroft could be used to argue that any AI-generated sexually explicit image of real minors should not be protected as free speech given the psychological harms inflicted on the real minors. But that argument has yet to be made before the court. The court’s ruling in Ashcroft may permit AI-generated sexually explicit images of fake minors.

    But Justice Clarence Thomas, who concurred in Ashcroft, cautioned that “if technological advances thwart prosecution of ‘unlawful speech,’ the Government may well have a compelling interest in barring or otherwise regulating some narrow category of ‘lawful speech’ in order to enforce effectively laws against pornography made through the abuse of real children.”

    With the recent significant advances in AI, it can be difficult if not impossible for law enforcement officials to distinguish between images of real and fake children. It’s possible that we’ve reached the point where computer-generated child sexual abuse material will need to be banned so that federal and state governments can effectively enforce laws aimed at protecting real children – the point that Thomas warned about over 20 years ago.

    If so, easy access to generative AI tools is likely to force the courts to grapple with the issue.

    Wayne Unger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Legal fight against AI-generated child pornography is complicated – a legal scholar explains why, and how the law could catch up – https://theconversation.com/legal-fight-against-ai-generated-child-pornography-is-complicated-a-legal-scholar-explains-why-and-how-the-law-could-catch-up-247980

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mirror life is a scientific fantasy leading to a dangerous reality − a synthetic biologist explains how mirror bacteria could conquer life on Earth

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kate Adamala, Assistant Professor of Genetics, Cell Biology and Development, University of Minnesota

    Synthetic biology offers many tantalizing possibilities, but scientists consider some projects too risky to pursue. DBenitostock/Moment via Getty Images

    Most major biological molecules, including all proteins, DNA and RNA, point in one direction or another. In other words, they are chiral, or handed. Like how your left glove fits only your left hand and your right glove your right hand, chiral molecules can interact only with other molecules of compatible handedness.

    Two chiralities are possible: left and right, formally called L for the Latin laevus and D for dexter. All life on Earth uses L proteins and D sugars. Even Archaea, a large group of microorganisms with unusual chemical compositions, stick to the program on the handedness of the main molecules they use.

    For a long time, scientists have been speculating about making biopolymers that would mirror compounds in nature but in the opposite orientation – namely, compounds made of D proteins and L sugars. Recent years have seen some promising advancements, including enzymes that can make mirror RNAs and mirror DNAs.

    Chirality refers to something that is not superimposable on its mirror image – like your hands.
    NASA

    When scientists observed that these mirror molecules behave just like their natural equivalents they considered that it would be possible to make a whole living cell from them. Mirror bacteria in particular had the potential to be a useful basic research tool – possibly allowing scientists to study a new tree of life for the first time and solve many problems in bioengineering and biomedicine.

    This so-called mirror life – living cells made from building blocks with an opposite chirality to those that make up natural life – could have very similar properties to natural living cells. They could live in the same environment, compete for resources and behave like you would expect of any living organism. They would be able to evade infection from other predators and immune systems because these opponents wouldn’t be able to recognize them.

    These features are why researchers like me were so attracted to mirror life in the first place. But these qualities are also huge bugs of this technology that make it a problem.

    I am a synthetic biologist who studies using chemistry to create living cells. I am also a bioengineer who develops tools for the bioeconomy. As a chemist by training, engineering mirror life initially seemed like a fascinating way to answer foundational questions about biology and practically apply those findings to industry and medicine. As I learned more about the immunology and ecology of mirror life, however, I became aware of the potential environmental and health consequences of this technology.

    Real concerns about hypothetical mirror life

    It’s important to note that researchers are likely at least 10 to 30 years away from creating mirror bacteria. On the timescale of a fast-moving field like synthetic biology, a decade is a very long time. Creating synthetic cells is difficult on its own. Creating mirrored ones would require several technical breakthroughs.

    However, it would come with a risk. If mirror cells were released into the environment, they would likely be able to quickly proliferate without much restriction. The natural mechanisms that keep ecosystems in balance, including infection and predation, would not work on mirror life.

    Bacteria, like most life forms, are susceptible to viral infections. These bacterial viruses, or bacteriophages, enter bacteria by binding to their surface receptors and then use their cellular machinery to replicate. But just as a left glove doesn’t fit a right hand, natural bacteriophages wouldn’t recognize mirror cell receptors or be able to use its machinery. Mirror life would likely be resistant to viruses.

    Mirror bacteria may be able to evade the bacteriophages that would otherwise help keep them in check. Here, multiple bacteriophages are attached to a bacterial cell wall.
    Professor Graham Beards/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Microorganisms foraging in the environment also keep bacterial populations in check. They differentiate food from nonfood by using chemical “taste” receptors. Anything those receptors bind to, such as bacteria and organic debris, are considered edible, while things that cannot bind to those receptors, such as rocks, are classified as inedible. Think about how a dog foraging on the kitchen floor will eat a bread roll but only sniff a spoon and move on. Mirror life would be, to the bacterial predators, more like a spoon than bread – predators would “sniff” it with their receptors and move on because these cells can’t bind.

    Safety from being eaten would be great news for mirror bacteria, because it would allow it to replicate freely. It would be much worse news to the rest of the ecosystem, because mirror bacteria might hog all the nutrients and spread uncontrollably. Even if mirror bacteria don’t actively attack other organisms, they would still consume food sources other organisms need. And since mirror cells would have much lower death rates than regular organisms due to a lack of predation, they would slowly but surely take over the environment.

    Even if mirror cells grow more slowly than normal cells, they would be able to grow without anything stopping them.

    Insufficient immunity

    Another biological control mechanism that wouldn’t be able to “sniff” out mirror cells is the immune system.

    Your immune cells constantly check everything they find in your blood. The decision tree of an immune cell is fairly simple. First, decide whether something is alive or not, then compare it with its database of “self” – your own cells. If it is alive but is not a part of you, then it needs to be killed. Mirror cells likely wouldn’t pass the first step of that screen: it would not induce an immune response because the immune system would not be able to recognize or bind to mirror cell antigens. This means mirror cells could infect an unprecedentedly wide variety of hosts.

    You might think an infection from mirror bacteria could be treated with antibiotics of the same handedness. It would probably work, and may even be easier on your gut than regular antibiotic therapy. Because antibiotics are also handed, mirror versions of these drugs would not affect your gut microbiome, just like how regular antibioics would not affect mirror cells.

    But humans are a relatively small part of the ecosystem. All other animals and plants may also be susceptible to infection from mirror pathogens. While it is possible to imagine developing mirror antibiotics to treat human infections, it is physically impossible to treat the entire plant and animal world. If all organisms are susceptible to even a slow-moving infection by mirror bacteria, there is no good treatment that could be deployed across the entire ecosystem.

    Better safe than sorry

    Mirror life is an exciting research subject and a potential tool with some practical applications in medicine and biotechnology. But for many scientists, including me, none of those benefits outweigh the serious consequences to human health and the environment that mirror life poses.

    I and a group of researchers in immunology, ecology, biosafety and security – including some who used to actively work on mirror life – conducted a thorough analysis of possible concerns regarding the creation of mirror life. No matter how we looked at it, straight up or in the mirror, the conclusions were clear: The potential benefits of engineering mirror life are not worth the risk.

    Mirror life is scientifically tantalizing but ethically unwise.

    There is no way to make anything completely foolproof, and that includes any safeguards built into a mirror cell that could prevent the risk of accidental or deliberate release into the environment. Researchers working in this space, including us, may find this disappointing. But not making mirror cells can ensure the safety and security of the planet. More discussion among the global scientific community about what kinds of research on mirror biomolecules and related technologies are safe – as well as how to regulate this research – can help safeguard against potential harms.

    Keeping mirror cells inside the mirror, rather than making them a physical reality, is the clearest path to staying safe.

    Kate Adamala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mirror life is a scientific fantasy leading to a dangerous reality − a synthetic biologist explains how mirror bacteria could conquer life on Earth – https://theconversation.com/mirror-life-is-a-scientific-fantasy-leading-to-a-dangerous-reality-a-synthetic-biologist-explains-how-mirror-bacteria-could-conquer-life-on-earth-245842

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Art and science illuminate the same subtle proportions in tree branches

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mitchell Newberry, Research Assistant Professor of Biology, University of Michigan

    Tree branches in art throughout history follow geometric rules related to fractal geometry. ‘Almond blossom’ by Vincent van Gogh. Van Gogh Museum, Amsterdam.

    Do artists and scientists see the same thing in the shape of trees? As a scientist who studies branching patterns in living things, I’m starting to think so.

    Piet Mondrian was an early 20th-century abstract artist and art theorist obsessed with simplicity and essence of form. Even people who have never heard of Mondrian will likely recognize his iconic irregular grids of rectangles.

    When I saw Mondrian’s 1911 “Gray Tree,” I immediately recognized something about trees that I had struggled to describe. By removing all but the most essential elements in an abstract painting, Mondrian demonstrated something I was attempting to explain using physics and fractal geometry.

    My field of research is mathematical biology. My colleagues and I try to explain how treelike structures such as veins and arteries, lungs and leaves fine-tune their physical form to efficiently deliver blood, air, water and nutrients.

    Fundamental research in the biology of branching helps cure cardiovascular diseases and cancer, design materials that can heal themselves and predict how trees will respond to a changing climate. Branching also shows up in ant foraging patterns, slime molds and cities.

    The treeless tree

    From 1890 to 1912, Mondrian painted dozens of trees. He started with full-color, realistic trees in context: trees in a farmyard or a dappled lane. Gradually he removed leaves, depth, color and eventually even branching from his tree paintings. “Gray Tree” uses only curved lines of various thickness superimposed on top of one another at seemingly random angles. Yet the image is unmistakably a tree.

    How did Mondrian convey the sense of a tree with so little? The science of trees may offer some clues.

    The science of branching

    One goal of mathematical biology is to synthesize what scientists know about the vast diversity of living systems – where there seems to be an exception to every rule – into clear, general principles, ideally with few exceptions. One such general principle is that evolution fine-tunes treelike structures in living things to make metabolism and respiration as efficient as possible.

    The body carefully controls the thickness of vessels as they branch, because deviation from the most efficient diameter wastes energy and causes disease, such as atherosclerosis.

    In many cases, such as human blood vessels, the body exerts much tighter control over diameter than length. So while veins and arteries might take circuitous routes to accommodate the vagaries of organs and anatomy, their diameter usually stays within 10% of the optimum. The same principle appears in tree branches as well.

    The precise calibration of branch diameter leads to a hallmark of fractal shapes called scale invariance. A scale invariance is a property that holds true regardless of the size of an object or part of an object you’re looking at. Scale invariance occurs in trees because trunks, limbs and twigs all branch in similar ways and for similar reasons.

    The scale invariance in branch diameter dictates how much smaller a limb should be as it branches and how much investment a tree makes in a few thick branches versus many thin ones. Trees have evolved scale invariance to transport water, reach light and resist gravity and wind load as efficiently as possible given physical limits.

    This science of trees inspired my colleague and me to measure the scaling of tree branch diameter in art.

    The art of trees

    Among my favorite images is a carving of a tree from a late-medieval mosque in India. Its exaltation of trees reminds me of Tolkien’s Tree of Gondor and the human capacity to appreciate the simple beauty of living things.

    But I also find mathematical inspiration in the Islamic Golden Age, a time when art, architecture, math and physics thrived. Medieval Islamic architects even decorated buildings with infinitely nonrepeating tiling patterns that were not understood by Western mathematics until the 20th century.

    The stylized tree carvings of the Sidi Saiyyed mosque also follow the precise system of proportions dictated by the scale invariance of real trees. This level of precision of branch diameter takes an attentive eye and a careful plan – much better than I could freehand.

    Indeed, wherever our team looked at trees in great artwork, such as Klimt’s “Tree of Life” or Matsumura Goshun’s “Cherry Blossoms,” we also found precise scale invariance in the diameter of branches.

    “Grey Tree” also realistically captures the natural variation in branch diameters, even when the painting gives the viewer little else to go on. Without realistic scaling, would this painting even be a tree?

    As if to prove the point, Mondrian made a subsequent painting the following year, also with a gray background, curved lines and the same overall composition and dimensions. Even the position of some of the lines are the same.

    But, in “Blooming Apple Tree” (1912), all the lines are the same thickness. The scaling is gone, and with it, the tree. Before reading the title, most viewers would not guess that this is a painting of a tree. Yet Mondrian’s sketches reveal that “Blooming Apple Tree” and “Gray Tree” are the very same tree.

    The two paintings contain few elements that might signal a tree – a concentration of lines near the center, lines that could be branches or a central trunk and lines that could indicate the ground or a horizon.

    Yet only “Gray Tree” has scale-invariant branch diameters. When Mondrian removes the scale invariance in “Blooming Apple Tree,” viewers just as easily see fish, scales, dancers, water or simply nonrepresentational shapes, whereas the tree in “Gray Tree” is unmistakable.

    Photo synthesis

    Mondrian’s tree paintings and scientific theory highlight the importance of the thickness of tree branches. Consilience is when different lines of evidence and reasoning reach the same conclusions. Art and math both explore abstract descriptions of the world, and so seeing great art and science pick out the same essential features of trees is satisfying beyond what art or science could accomplish alone.

    Just as great literature such as “The Overstory” and “The Botany of Desire” show us how trees influence our lives in ways we often don’t notice, the art and science of trees show how humans are finely attuned to what’s important to trees. I think this resonance is one reason people find fractals and natural landscapes so pleasing and reassuring.

    All these lines of thinking give us new ways to appreciate trees.

    Mitchell Newberry has published research on tree branching supported by University of Michigan and University of New Mexico. He volunteers with Cool It Burque, a tree-planting group in Albuquerque, NM.

    – ref. Art and science illuminate the same subtle proportions in tree branches – https://theconversation.com/art-and-science-illuminate-the-same-subtle-proportions-in-tree-branches-247967

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A music expert’s tips on making an unforgettable mixtape (or playlist) for your Valentine

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Glenn Fosbraey, Associate Dean of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Winchester

    There’s something about tangible music that the digital world simply can’t touch. Whether that’s putting a new record on the turntable, popping a shiny CD out of its jewel case or clicking a tape into place on a cassette deck.

    I still remember a time when cassette was king – when the ultimate Christmas present was a pack of blank tapes, and recording your favourite songs from the radio without the interference of the DJ’s voice was a skill to be proud of.

    Then, of course, there was the mixtape. Lovingly compiled over weeks, dubbed from CDs, other cassettes, the radio or LPs, the track listings would be written on the back in your neatest handwriting. When the time was right, you passed it on to that special someone.

    The process wasn’t without risk, of course. Critic Christopher Partridge has noted that, for many of us, popular music is central to the construction of our identities and sense of self. That means that creating something so personal often felt like giving up a section of our diaries.

    A practical guide to making a physical mixtape.

    Handing it over to the wrong person and having your taste ridiculed was a surefire way to spend the next few days wallowing in self-pity, eating multipacks of crisps and listening to The Smiths. Handing it over to the right person, though, and seeing them share your love for those most precious of songs was a certain way to take a relationship to the next level.

    Cassette tapes and players are having a second lease on life. They can be bought online for as little as £30, or even cheaper if you get lucky in a charity shop.

    So, this Valentine’s Day, why not do something that really shows how much you care, and go old school instead of just sending over another Spotify link? Here are five top tips from a seasoned mixtape maker.

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    1. Be honest

    Romantic mixtapes are supposed to be an opportunity for you to share the tracks that you love; a chance to say “this is a piece of me – what do you think?” If you’re choosing tracks simply because you think they’ll make you look current, deep or edgy, therefore, you’re not being true to the process. Pick the songs that mean something to you and don’t overthink how they may look to someone else.

    2. Be considerate

    Writing on your CD or cassette can add an extra personal touch.
    Isabela Donô Peixoto/Dupe

    If you know the recipient of your mixtape quite well, chances are you might also know a little something about their music tastes.

    Tip one still applies in such an instance, but that’s not to say you should force-feed them Metallica, for example, if they’ve previously said they hate heavy metal. Doing so would either show you to be someone who doesn’t listen (bad), or someone who listens, but doesn’t care (worse).

    So, be considerate, but don’t spend the whole time thinking “Oh God: will they hate this?” They might do, of course, but if they haven’t given you a clue either way, it’s a risk you’ll have to take.

    3. Don’t be cringey

    Mixtapes, especially Valentine’s mixtapes, are not about vicariously displaying your feelings for someone through the voice and lyrics of others. Instead, they are about showing that you trust someone enough to share the songs that are important to you.

    If you own vinyl records, try playing them while recording with a blank cassette.
    Cora Pursley/Dupe

    To that end, please, no Let’s Get It On or J’taime… Moi Non Plus. Not least because it may make the object of your affection cringe, which (hopefully) won’t be your desired reaction.

    Also, try to avoid cringey behaviours when presenting the mixtape, whether that’s saying, “oh, you’re going to LOVE this,” followed by winks and elbow nudges, or, on the flipside, being almost apologetic: “You’re probably going to hate it … but here it is anyway.”

    Instead, just go with something like, “I made you this,” hand it over, and let the music do the rest of the talking.

    4. Sequencing

    When it comes to deciding the running order of your mixtape, it can be looked upon like the sequencing of an album.

    Joy Division and New Order’s Peter Hook says that a tracklist should “build up … slow down” and then have a “big finish”. Taylor Swift says she never likes to put two happy songs in a row or two of the same kind of sadness in a row. Adele swears by leaving the biggest and boldest track to the end. And Elbow’s Guy Garvey likes to include a short post-script of song after the record sounds like it’s ended, which feels like extra kisses at the bottom of a letter.

    Unfortunately, our modern attention spans may also need to be taken into consideration. Radio expert Kelli Fannon admits that she can only get through the first three or four songs of an album (or mixtape) before the phone rings, someone asks a question, or she has a meeting to run to. And she’s not alone.

    So, if there are a few songs you really want your lover to hear, ignore the sequencing advice of the stars, and make sure you put those tracks first.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    5. Variety is the spice of life

    I’ll never forget my wife’s face when she came to the end of Satan Rejected My Soul by Morrissey, which I’d inexplicably and inadvisably put on the mixtape I’d made for her a few weeks after we’d met.

    Sure, I sulked for a bit (how could she not like it?) but we moved past it, and 20 years on I just know not to play Morrissey within her earshot. It’s unlikely the recipient of your tape is going to love every track and, so long as they let you down respectfully, all is well.

    With hindsight, I can’t think of an instance where Satan Rejected My Soul should ever be on a mixtape. So do yourself (and your love interest) a favour and leave that one off.

    Glenn Fosbraey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A music expert’s tips on making an unforgettable mixtape (or playlist) for your Valentine – https://theconversation.com/a-music-experts-tips-on-making-an-unforgettable-mixtape-or-playlist-for-your-valentine-249240

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Camp Hill virus explained: what are the risks of a henipavirus outbreak in America?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shirin Ashraf, Postdoctoral Researcher, MRC-Centre for Virus Research, University of Glasgow

    A new pathogen, called Camp Hill virus, was recently discovered in Alabama, drawing attention to a group of viruses known as henipaviruses. This is a big deal because other viruses in this group are linked to serious, often fatal, disease, and this is the first time one of them has been found in North America.

    Camp Hill virus was discovered by looking at tissue samples from short-tailed shrews that were collected in 2021. It’s a new species of virus that’s related to other dangerous viruses such as Nipah and Hendra, which have caused serious outbreaks in other parts of the world. It’s also distantly related to the measles virus.

    The first known henipavirus, Hendra virus, was identified in Australia in 1994. There have been just seven cases of humans getting infected – four of them were fatal.

    Nipah virus, discovered in Malaysia in 1998, is much more deadly. It has caused 30 outbreaks in south-east Asia, infecting over 600 people, with death rates as high as 100% in some cases.

    These viruses usually cause fever and other serious symptoms, such as brain swelling and difficulty breathing. They are thought to be carried by bats and can spread to humans through their saliva or urine. Horses are also thought to be carriers.

    Thanks to new technology that allows scientists to study the genetics of viruses, they’ve now found nearly 20 species of henipaviruses around the world. These viruses have been found on every continent except Antarctica, including places like Ghana, China, Australia and Brazil. This shows that henipaviruses are probably common in nature, and new ones could pop up almost anywhere.

    For example, in China, a virus called Mojang virus was linked to the deaths of three workers who were exposed to it in a mine. Another virus, Langya, spread by shrews, caused an outbreak in which 35 people got sick – although they all recovered.

    So far, other henipaviruses haven’t caused human infections, but the potential is there.

    The rapid growth in our understanding of these viruses comes from improvements in technology and global efforts to study diseases. But it also reminds us that viruses can suddenly jump from animals to humans in unpredictable ways.

    Whether a virus can harm humans depends on how well it can infect human cells, and how badly it affects the body. Some viruses cause mild symptoms, while others can lead to life-threatening diseases. Studying these viruses requires scientists to look closely at their genetic code and run laboratory tests to understand how they work.

    Henipaviruses can infect many animals, including bats, horses, monkeys, dogs, cats and even rodents. This means they are more adaptable and have a higher chance of jumping from animals to humans in different ways. In comparison, a virus like measles can only infect humans, which makes it less likely to spread to other species.

    No drugs or vaccines … yet

    There is no cure for henipavirus infections, but researchers are working on a vaccine for Nipah virus. Some new treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, are also being developed but aren’t ready for use yet. This makes Nipah and Hendra viruses major public health concerns. The World Health Organization has called for more research to help fight them.

    While there’s no evidence that Camp Hill virus has infected any humans yet – and the chances of it doing so are low – its discovery in North America is a reminder that viruses can emerge anywhere. Even though shrews usually live in forests and don’t come into much contact with people, the potential for the virus to spread remains a worry.

    The more we learn about these viruses, the better we’ll be at creating vaccines that can protect us from both known and new threats. Keeping up with research and staying prepared is crucial to protecting global health from future outbreaks.

    Shirin Ashraf does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Camp Hill virus explained: what are the risks of a henipavirus outbreak in America? – https://theconversation.com/camp-hill-virus-explained-what-are-the-risks-of-a-henipavirus-outbreak-in-america-249183

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Five ways that illustrations can tell climate justice stories

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andi Misbahul Pratiwi, PhD Candidate, School of Geography, University of Leeds

    Climate change is often communicated through scientific reports, statistics and policy discussions. However, these technical approaches can be inaccessible to the public, failing to capture the experiences of those most affected.

    Climate narratives structured as stories that involve emotional engagement and personal anecdotes are more effective at mobilising communities, influencing policy and promoting pro-environmental actions across diverse audiences. By blending art with storytelling, illustrations can make complex environmental issues, such as climate justice, much more accessible to the general public.

    Illustrations are not just artistic expressions. They can amplify the voices of affected communities and help make the case for climate justice. In an era where climate action is urgent, harnessing the power of illustration can be transformative. It can challenge dominant narratives while creating more inclusive and participatory ways of understanding climate action.

    I have been collaborating with Puspita Bahari, an Indonesian fisherwomen’s movement to develop ways to communicate the effects of tidal floods and the importance of feminist solidarity. For my PhD research, I spent seven months carrying out fieldwork in three coastal villages in Demak, Central Java, Indonesia. This involved interviews, observations and creative workshops with the community.

    By drawing on 38 women’s firsthand experiences, we have published an illustrated book: Tidal Floods: Women, Fisheries, and Climate Crisis in Indonesia (2024). This story about Indonesia’s fisherwomen explores the intersections of gender, environmental change, activism and the future of the country’s coastal regions. Here are five ways that collaborative illustrations can be used to tell female-led climate justice stories:

    1. Intersectional narration

    The effects of tidal flooding on Indonesian women vary depending on location, livelihood, age and disability status. Along the coastline, women in Indonesia are involved in selling fish, processing seafood and fishing at sea, alongside domestic work.

    This book does not depict women as having a single, monolithic identity. Instead, the images portray their varied realities. These shape how they experience climate injustice and how pre-existing inequalities reproduce new climate injustices.

    Intersectional narration is storytelling that captures how different aspects of identity overlap to shape people’s experiences in complex ways. Using this, various issues such as economic hardship, domestic violence, sexual reproductive health, physical and mental health can be better represented.

    The image below illustrates these challenges. A woman with a disability is unable to use her wheelchair because the village is sinking. A pregnant woman struggles to access healthcare facilities. Fisherwomen face declining incomes due to environmental and economic pressures.

    2. Body maps

    To understand the complexity of climate impacts, I worked with women to draw body maps. As they annotated each picture, fisherwomen shared their embodied experiences of living with tidal floods as an everyday disaster.

    Body mapping is an intimate cartographic process that involves tracing the body and visually exploring one’s lived experience. This method goes beyond textual and oral narratives. It helps women recall and record body memories that might otherwise remain unspoken.

    Their body maps are not just research artefacts. They have been translated into powerful visuals so their personal stories can be shared in this book. The picture above illustrates one fisherwoman’s daily struggles, physical and physiological burdens – so the image reveals the complex, gendered, and intersectional effects of tidal floods.

    3. Historical context

    Certain pictures show how the coastal landscapes are rapidly changing and how villages are sinking at an alarming rate. This historical context is not only drawn from women’s oral narratives but also from past photo albums shared by the community.

    The picture below illustrates the landscape change over 20 years, from rice fields to tidal floodwaters.

    4. Movement and agency

    Beyond documenting vulnerabilities and the social, ecological and economic effects of climate change on women, this book shows how these women have agency. This manifests in various ways, from small acts of resilience to broader feminist solidarity.

    When they work together as a community, women can adapt through collective action. This includes planting crops, building cooperatives and holding demonstrations. Stories can play a role in moving beyond positioning women not just as victims but as people with valuable knowledge and the ability to assert their agency and drive sustainable climate action.

    5. Reflection and collective ownership

    In an era defined by uncertainty and rapid change, the ability to pause and reflect on climate justice is more valuable than ever. Certain images actively encourage readers to reflect on more tech-driven and infrastructure-focused responses to the climate crisis.

    The final pages include questions that prompt critical thinking about the links between gender, climate justice and activism. For example, “what do you think will happen if we do not address the climate crisis?”

    Rather than extracting knowledge from women, especially those in Global South countries, this book is co-created. Fisherwomen’s voices and narratives are central to the storytelling process. By reclaiming conversations about climate change that are often dominated by international forums, we can hear and learn from the people who are most affected. And hopefully inspire more climate advocacy and grassroots action.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    The creation of this book was funded by the GENERATE Project as part of a United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Future Leaders Fellowship at the University of Leeds: www.generateproject.org.

    – ref. Five ways that illustrations can tell climate justice stories – https://theconversation.com/five-ways-that-illustrations-can-tell-climate-justice-stories-249104

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Podcasts are a great tool for political persuasion – just ask this 18th century thinker

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Katie East, Senior Lecturer in the History of Radical Ideas, Newcastle University

    Podcasts have been around for more than two decades, but the last few years – and particularly their influence in the 2024 US election – have solidified their role in the media landscape.

    Some of the most popular podcasts in the US and UK (such as The Joe Rogan Experience and The Rest is Politics) have a conversational format. They typically include two or more people discussing topics in an unstructured, uncensored way. The hosts and guests are unencumbered by word counts or TV timeslots. Such podcasts are a viable medium for political persuasion.

    There is some debate as to whether podcasts are simply an extension of the echo chambers formed in other media. But as a researcher of intellectual history and political discourse, I believe that conversational podcasts offer a uniquely valuable way to unpick political questions – and change the listener’s point of view.

    To understand the value of conversation as a means of communication, I suggest looking to writing from 18th-century Britain. This period saw a shift away from monarchy towards parliamentary government, along with the explosion of print culture. Popular engagement with political issues grew, and discussion of politics became a notable pastime.

    The rapidly expanding public sphere produced countless works on the art of conversation. Traditionally, they have been interpreted as indicative of the Georgian fascination with civility and politeness, instructing the reader in the proper behaviour for civilised discussion.

    However, the work of the Independent minister Isaac Watts (1674-1748) reveals a different view. Watts achieved prominence as a writer on education and as a philosopher. He engaged with key Enlightenment debates concerning reason, dogmatism and freedom of thought.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    In 1741, Watts published The Improvement of the Mind, which outlined the most effective ways of acquiring and creating useful knowledge. Among these was conversation.

    Watts viewed conversation as a tool for persuasion. This was not in the sense of compelling someone to your view – he explicitly warned against approaching conversation with a dogmatic mindset – but rather as a collective endeavour to reach the truth of a matter. Ultimately, this is a much more enduring form of persuasion.

    The appeal of conversation

    There is a logic to the appeal of conversational podcasts in a world of increasing isolation and division. Even the supposed great connector – social media – offers only a facade of conversation. While social media connects people more than ever before, the natural flow and deep engagement of a conversation is difficult to replicate online. Exchanges are rarely immediate, numerous voices are vying for position and tone of voice or expression is obscured behind faceless avatars.

    Conversation, Watts argued, offers a greater clarity of understanding of an opposing position than a one-way interaction like reading (or scrolling). A person can explain their meaning in different terms if it is not initially clear. If questions arise, the speakers can unpack the nuances before becoming hostile.

    Moreover, Watts argued, encountering a different perspective can draw the conversation closer to “evidence and truth” in unexpected ways.

    This supports the idea that conversation is the best forum for better understanding a different stance from your own. Such a view paves the way for the kind of “agreeable disagreement” celebrated by The Rest is Politics.

    Even listening to an conversation can help you understand a stance different from your own.
    Yuri A/Shutterstock

    It was not only that the nature of conversation facilitated better mutual understanding, in Watts’ view, but also that it offered unique creative possibilities in the pursuit of truth. The act of conversation demanded more active engagement of the mind and the “secret chambers of the soul,” drawing forth ideas which might otherwise have remained lodged deep in the recesses of the mind. Not only could hidden thoughts be revealed, but entirely new ones could be created through the process of conversing.

    Watts likened two people in conversation to flints being struck together: in motion working together they could produce fire, but stationary and solitary nothing could be created. In solitude “our souls may be serene,” Watts wrote, “but not sparkling”.

    Conversation and disagreement

    Watts recognised that caution was needed to avoid the most likely pitfalls of conversation: the echo chamber and the risk of hostility.

    He was emphatic that conversation with those whose opinions differed from your own was necessary. If knowledge and truth were to be discovered, then new ideas had to be considered. As noted, he also warned against dogma, advising patience regarding a firm and unalterable proposition until you have grounds for it.

    Most interestingly, he warned against bothsidesism, or arguing a question pro and con for the sake of it. This, he argued, would embed confrontation in the conversation and prevent the mind from being in the proper position to uncover the truth.

    Today, the polarisation resulting from avoiding views different from our own, and from deliberately seeking out binary positions for the sake of confrontation is all too apparent.

    Yet the popularity of conversational political podcasts indicates the appetite for a different approach to political discussion. Though they didn’t have podcasts in the 18th century, conversation was a public endeavour, performed at coffee houses and replicated in print so the audience could also learn good practice and understand – so listen on.

    Katie East does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Podcasts are a great tool for political persuasion – just ask this 18th century thinker – https://theconversation.com/podcasts-are-a-great-tool-for-political-persuasion-just-ask-this-18th-century-thinker-245213

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Struggling with money? Here are 5 tips for growing your income from a financial expert

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Lisa Kramer, Professor of Finance, University of Toronto

    Whether you are just starting or looking to advance your financial skills, there are steps you can take to improve your financial situation. (Shutterstock)

    Personal finance can often feel overwhelming, with many Millennial and Gen Z individuals struggling with student loans, the high cost of living, housing market challenges and a general sense of financial anxiety. But just as any challenge can be overcome through skill development and persistence, so can your finances.

    Whether you are just starting or looking to advance your financial skills, there are steps you can take to improve your financial situation. From basic recommendations to more advanced strategies, here are some ways to get yourself on the path to financial stability.

    Ready to make a change? The Quarter Life Glow-up is a new, six-week newsletter course from The Conversation’s UK and Canada editions.

    Every week, we’ll bring you research-backed advice and tools to help improve your relationships, your career, your free time and your mental health – no supplements or skincare required. Sign up here to start your glow-up at any time.

    1. Create a budget

    The first step to mastering your finances is working out where your money is going. You may discover, as my now-husband realized when he was a graduate student, that you’re spending a third of your food expenditures on coffee.

    Once you determine where your money is going, you can reign in some of your expenses and ensure some money is left over each month to devote to debt repayment or savings. Creating a budget is essential for doing this.

    The Government of Canada has an online budget planner tool available, as does the United States Federal Trade Commission and the United Kingdom government’s Money and Pensions Service.

    Once your budget is made, you can focus on reducing discretionary costs and redirect those savings toward your financial goals.

    Create a realistic budget that aligns with your financial goals.
    (Shutterstock)

    2. Boosting your income

    It can be difficult to reduce expenses in an inflationary environment — especially when the cost of basic needs like food and shelter are becoming increasingly expensive in Canada, the United States and elsewhere.

    But you can still find ways to boost your income without necessarily getting a second or third job.



    Read more:
    Maths that will help you as an adult: from baking a cake to asking for a pay rise

    It can be daunting to ask your employer for a raise, but you’re much more likely to get one if you ask. Arm yourself with quantifiable evidence about your productivity and work ethic. Then, rehearse your request with a mentor who is further along on your career path.

    If you don’t succeed on your first try, use the experience to understand how to secure a raise in the future. Another way to get a raise? While still employed — and on your own time, not company time — look for a new job, get an offer and use it as leverage to politely negotiate a raise. If you’re still unsuccessful, it may be time to move on to that new job.

    3. Build your pension

    Older generations are more likely to have worked in jobs that came with defined-benefit pensions, a type of pension plan that provides someone with a stream of income after they retire.

    These days, jobs are less likely to come with such perks. A recent World Bank report found about half of gig workers worldwide have no retirement plan; in some countries, that figure is as high as 75 per cent.

    It’s important to check if your current employer offers a defined contribution pension plan, which involves you and your employer contributing to a saving account that grows over time.

    Even if you don’t have access to such a plan, consider using a robo-advisor to replicate one of its key features by setting up an automatic monthly contribution to an investment account. Then, you can increase the amount you contribute every time you get a raise.

    You should also consider allocating that investment to a well-diversified stock index, or to a blend of stocks and bonds if you are relatively risk averse. An exchange-traded fund, also known as an ETF, is a low-cost way to do this compared to buying mutual funds. While the value of your investment may go up and down over the short term, it is likely to perform well over the long term.

    Talking to a financial advisor is always a good idea if you feel stuck.
    (Shutterstock)

    4. Steady does it

    Once you have set up automatic contributions and established a routine of increasing them over time, you will see your investment account balance start to grow. Even if you can put away only small amounts each month in the beginning, you’ll develop good financial habits.

    Your next task should be avoiding the temptation of timing the ups and downs of financial markets by actively trading. To dodge this common pitfall, avoid examining the balance of your investment account on a month-to-month basis and keep contributing, regardless of whatever may be happening in financial markets.



    Read more:
    If you have money anxiety, knowing your financial attachment style can help

    Ironically, overconfident investors often underperform the market when they try — and fail — to outperform by frequently trading their investment holdings. Successful investors understand the most reliable path to wealth accumulation is paved with a buy-and-hold mentality, meaning you should purchase investments with the intention of keeping them long-term rather than frequently buying and selling.

    5. Imagine the future

    When you’re young, it can be hard to identify with an abstract future version of yourself in retirement. Your golden years may be decades in the future, and it can seem like you have ages to prepare for whatever life will bring you at that stage in life.

    However, research shows that the clearer you can mentally picture your future self, the more motivated you will be to make sensible saving and retirement planning decisions for your future self.

    Try imagining what your life will be like when you’re retired, or what you will look like. Will you have grey hair or wrinkles? How will you spend your time? Picture your future self in retirement and the kind of life you would like to have.

    Meet the challenge head-on

    If you still find yourself overwhelmed by these tips and don’t know where to begin, consider contacting a fee-only financial advisor to analyze your situation and provide you with personalized advice.

    Remember, no matter what financial challenge you may face, it’s simply a new opportunity to overcome. With the right strategies and support, you’ll be able to tackle any financial hurdles and work toward a more secure future for yourself.

    Achieving financial stability is a journey that requires ongoing effort and dedication. Each milestone you reach brings you closer to your ultimate goal.

    Lisa Kramer has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Securities Institute Research Foundation.

    – ref. Struggling with money? Here are 5 tips for growing your income from a financial expert – https://theconversation.com/struggling-with-money-here-are-5-tips-for-growing-your-income-from-a-financial-expert-234623

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s ‘Riviera’ plan for Gaza heralds an age of naked fascism

    COMMENTARY: By Sawsan Madina

    I watched US President Donald Trump’s joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week in utter disbelief. Not that the idea, or indeed the practice, of ethnic cleansing of Palestine is new.

    But at that press conference the mask has fallen. Recently, fascism has been on the march everywhere, but that press conference seemed to herald an age of naked fascism.

    So the Palestinians have just been “unlucky” for decades.

    “Their lives have been made hell.” Thank God for grammar’s indirect speech. Their lives have been made hell. We do not know who made their lives hell. Nothing to see here.

    Trump says of Gaza: “We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site, and get rid of the destroyed buildings — level it out and create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area . . . ”

    I wonder who are those lucky “people of the area” he has in mind, once those “unlucky” Palestinians have been “transferred” out of their homeland.

    Trump speaks of transforming Gaza into a magnificent “Riviera of the Middle East”. Obviously, the starved amputees of Gaza do not fit his image of the classy people he wants to see in the Riviera he wants to build, on stolen Palestinian land.

    No ethnic cleansing questions
    After the press conference, I did not hear a single question about ethnic cleansing, genocide, occupation or international law.

    Under the new fascist leaders, just like under the old ones, those words have become old-fashioned and are to be expunged from the lexicon.

    The difference has never been more striking between the meek who officially hold the title “journalist” and the brave who actually work to hold the powerful to account.

    Now, more than ever, independent journalists are a threatened species. We should treasure them, support them and protest every attempt to silence them.

    Gaza is now the prototype. We can forget international laws and international organisations. We have the bombs. You do as we wish or you will be obliterated.

    Who now dares say that the forced transfer of a population by an occupying power is a war crime under the Geneva Convention? But then again, Trump and Netanyahu are not really talking about “forced transfer”. They are talking about “voluntary transfer”.

    Once the remaining Israeli hostages have been freed, and water and food have been cut off again, those unlucky Palestinians will climb voluntarily onto the buses waiting to transport them to happiness and prosperity in Egypt and Jordan.

    Or to whatever other client state Trump manages to threaten or bribe.

    Can the International Criminal Court (ICC) command a shred of respect when Netanyahu is sharing the podium with Trump? Or indeed when Trump is at the podium?

    Dismantling the international order
    Recently, fascist leaders have been dismantling the international order by accusing its organisations and officials of being “antisemitic” or “working with terrorists”. Tomorrow they will defund and delegitimise these organisations without the need for an excuse.

    I listen to Trump speak of combatting antisemitism and deporting Hamas sympathisers and I hear, “We will combat anti-Israel views and we will deport those who protest Israel’s crimes.

    “And we will continue to conflate antisemitism and anti-Israel’s views in order to silence pro-Palestinian voices.”

    I watch Trump and Netanyahu, the former reading the thoughts of a real estate developer turned into a president’s speech and the latter grinning like a Cheshire cat — and I am gripped by fear. Not just for the Palestinians, but for all humanity.

    If we think fascism is only coming for people on a distant shore, we ought to think again.

    I watch Netanyahu repeating lies that investigative journalists have spent months debunking. Why would he care? The truth about his lies will not make it to mainstream media and the consciousness of the majority of people.

    Lies taking hold, enduring
    And the more he repeats those lies, the more they take hold and endure.

    I wonder how our political leaders will spin our allies’ new, illegal and immoral plans. For years, they have clung to the mantra of the two-state solution while Israel continued to make every effort to render this solution unfeasible.

    What will they say now? With what weasel words will they stay on the same page as our friends in the US and Israel?

    Netanyhu praises Trump for thinking outside the box. Here is an idea that Israel has spent billions on arms and propaganda to persuade people that it is dangerously outside the box.

    Instead of asking Egypt and Jordan to take the Palestinians, why not make Israel end the occupation and give Palestinians equal rights in their own homeland?

    Sawsan Madina is former head of Australia’s SBS Television. This article was first published by John Menadue’s public policy journal Pearls and Irritations and is republished with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese government looking to acquire Rex Airlines if buyer can’t be found

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Albanese government will on Wednesday announce it is willing, as a last resort, to purchase the collapsed Rex Airlines, in its latest bid to prop up aviation services to regional and remote areas.

    As the administrators work on the second attempt to sell Rex, the  government will say that, in the first instance, it will work with shortlisted bidders on potential support to maximise the prospects of a sale. The initial attempt to sell Rex failed last year.

    What support will be offered  will be conditional on bidders committing to provide an “ongoing, reasonable level of service to regional and remote communities”. Assistance must also represent value for taxpayers’ money and there would have to be assurances from the potential buyer of good governance.

    While the government is not a bidder in the sale process now underway and hopes that will be successful, if there is no result, it will go down an alternative route.

    “In the event there is no sale, the Albanese government will undertake necessary work, in consultation with relevant state governments, on contingency options, including preparations necessary for potential Commonwealth acquisition.”

    The government is also providing an extension to the exemption from the “use it or lose it” test for REX regional flight slots at Sydney airport. This will ensure its access to those slots until October 24 next year.

    REX went into voluntary administration last year. An attempt (now abandoned) to compete on capital city routes had proved disastrous for it.

    The Federal government has provided it with extensive support to keep it in the air on regional routes while its future is being determined.

    This has included $80 million in a loan to the administrator to keep regional flights operating until June 30, as well as a buyout of $50 million debt from its biggest creditor, PAGAC Regulus Holdings Limited. The government is now Rex’s largest creditor.

    Prime Minister Albanese said: “We are working collaboratively with the administrators of REX to ensure that regional services continue beyond June 2025, including looking at what support the Commonwealth can provide.

    “Regional Australians can be assured that our government will continue to fight to ensure these regional airfare remain available.”

    Transport minister Catherine King said: “When markets fail or struggle to deliver for regional communities the government has a role to ensure people do not miss out on opportunities, education and critical connections.”

    When speaking about the future of the airline last month, opposition transport spokeswoman Bridget McKenzie declined to say whether the Coalition would support nationalisation of Rex.

    Until the 1990s the federal government owned Qantas and one of the two major domestic airlines.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese government looking to acquire Rex Airlines if buyer can’t be found – https://theconversation.com/albanese-government-looking-to-acquire-rex-airlines-if-buyer-cant-be-found-249594

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to make a change in your life – and stick to it

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Abigail Parrish, Lecturer in Languages Education, University of Sheffield

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Is there a change you’d like to make in your life? Perhaps you’d finally like to write the novel you’ve been thinking about for years. Perhaps you think you should start saving for a holiday or a deposit on a house or flat. Maybe you would like to improve your fitness.

    That’s great. But we all know it can be hard to stick to these kinds of changes. Gym membership figures suggest half of new members quit within six months, and many of us have the evidence of once-loved hobbies scattered around our homes.

    To write that book, for instance, you’re going to have to find time to do it, and stick with it when the going gets tough and initial enthusiasm has worn off.

    Ready to make a change? The Quarter Life Glow-up is a new, six-week newsletter course from The Conversation’s UK and Canada editions.

    Every week, we’ll bring you research-backed advice and tools to help improve your relationships, your career, your free time and your mental health – no supplements or skincare required. Sign up here to start your glow-up at any time.

    First, you should ask yourself why you’re doing it.

    My research looks at the psychology of making changes through the lens of what is known as self-determination theory, which proposes that there are different forms of motivation. These range from, for instance, being motivated to do something because someone is making you do it, to being motivated because you think it’s fun.

    Looked at like this, big changes, such as training for a new career, and smaller ones, like joining a weekly fitness class, are all the same. What matters is the reason you have for doing it.

    Find the right reason

    You might have more than one reason for making a change. Perhaps you want to start something because it’s a TikTok trend and everyone else seems to be doing it, or maybe the suggestion is coming from someone in your life. These are external reasons to do something, and this type of motivation is less likely to lead to success.

    Focus on the ones that are “internalised” – that come from within yourself. If you can find a reason why the change is important to you and you have your own motivation to make it, you’re much more likely to stick with it. It needs to be something that is aligned with your values – something you believe in.

    So what you’re doing doesn’t even have to be something you enjoy, as long as it’s something you feel is important to you.

    Think of deciding to save money, for example. This isn’t an activity that is inherently fun for most people, but the act of saving might be important because of what it represents or leads to – the holiday at the end of it, or the house you could buy with the money you put away. When you start to waver in your goal, thinking of that personal reason will help you keep going.

    You don’t necessarily have to enjoy something to be motivated to keep doing it.
    New Africa/Shutterstock

    There are two other important concepts from self-determination theory mixed up in the idea of an action being aligned with personal values. When you do something that comes from your values, you should be acting with autonomy – doing something you want to do, not something other people have made you do.

    That’s a key construct in the theory, but it can be hard to align with things like work or study. Perhaps your goal is to apply yourself at work or to get a good grade in your studies. But most people have a boss, or a supervisor, and their role is to instruct you on what to do.

    If you’re a teacher, you have to work to the school’s timetable, whether you like it or not. But in the jobs where you are most motivated, you will be able to make some choices for yourself. Teaching is an interesting example of when this doesn’t work, because in England this very structured job has become even more so in recent years, coinciding with a recruitment and retention problem in the profession.

    Teacher autonomy is widely studied and considered important even outside of self-determination theory, and a perceived lack of autonomy is likely to be one of the reasons people might want to quit their job.

    Eyes on the goal

    The other really important thing is your goal in making the change. The best kind of goal is an autonomous one, relating to something that is intrinsically important to you. This might be competing at a high level in your sport, because it will give you joy and satisfaction to be the best you can be. This means you will put up with hardships and challenges, and you will keep going even after a bad day.

    By contrast, if your goal is an external one, you might find things more difficult. This includes if you’re doing something for a reward, rather than because something is personally important to you. So if you want to write a bestselling novel to become famous or rich, you may find that as the going gets tough, your motivation slips and work grinds to a halt.

    If you are doing something because other people want you to, even other people who care about you, you will struggle. This may mean that some changes are just not meant to be – or it might mean changing your mindset and how you look at the goals you are aiming for.

    Try to get the support of people who care about you and who you care about, whether this be family and friends, or a new community at your sports club, for example. And finally, keep an eye on your goals. Any change which you are engaging in for yourself because you value it and can see the benefits, is likely to be a lasting one.

    Abigail Parrish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to make a change in your life – and stick to it – https://theconversation.com/how-to-make-a-change-in-your-life-and-stick-to-it-237248

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Vanuatu parliament elects Jotham Napat as new prime minister

    Jotham Napat has been elected as the new prime minister of Vanuatu.

    Napat was elected unopposed in Port Vila today, receiving 50 votes with two void votes.

    He is the country’s fifth prime minister in four years and will lead a coalition government made up of five political parties — Leaders Party, Vanua’aku Party, Graon Mo Jastis Party, Reunification Movement for Change, and the Iauko Group.

    Napat is president of the Leaders Party, which secured the most seats in the House after the snap election last month.

    The former prime minister Charlot Salwai nominated Napat for the top job.

    The nomination was seconded by Ralph Regenvanu, president of the Graon Mo Jastis Pati, before the MP for Tanna and president of the Leaders Party accepted the nomination.

    The MP for Port Vila and leader of the Union of Moderate Parties, Ishmael Kalsakau, congratulated Napat on his nomination and said there would be no other nomination for prime minister.

    Who is Jotham Napat?
     Napat, 52, is an MP for Tanna Constituency and is the president of the Leaders Party which emerged from the January 16 snap election with nine seats making it the largest party in Parliament.

    He was born on Tanna in August 1972.

    He heads a five party coalition government with more micro parties likely to affiliate to his administration in the coming days and weeks.

    More than 30 MPs were seated on the government side of the House for today’s Parliament sitting.

    Napat was first elected to the house in 2016.

    He was re-elected in 2020 and again in the snap elections of 2022 and 2025.

    Before entering Parliament he chaired the National Disaster Committee in the aftermath of the devastating Cyclone Pam.

    New government facing many challenges
     The incoming government will have a long list of urgent priorities to attend to, including the 2025 Budget and the ongoing rebuild of the central business district in the capital Port Vila after a 7.3 magnitude earthquake in December.

    That quake claimed 14 lives, injured more than 200 people, and displaced thousands.

    One voter who spoke to RNZ Pacific during last month’s election said they wanted leaders with good ideas for Vanuatu’s future.

    “And not just the vision to run the government and the nation but also who has leadership qualities and is transparent.

    “People who can work with communities and who don’t just think about themselves.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Social media groups can offer support to new parents. Here’s how to tell if there’s marketing involved

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Bridges, Senior Lecturer in Public Relations and Director of Academic Program – Communication, Creative Industries, Screen Media, Western Sydney University

    Stock Rocket/Shutterstock

    For new parents struggling with challenges such as breastfeeding and sleep deprivation, social media can be a great place to turn for advice. Digital platforms such as Facebook and Reddit host a range of groups that offer peer support and information.

    Research shows connecting with other new parents can also foster a sense of community.

    But there is growing concern businesses and influencers may also be using groups to push certain products and services.

    In recent media reports, new parents have described feeling misled, after discovering the parent support group they thought was founded by a local mum was run by a media company owner and monetised through advertising.

    So how can you identify when commercial interests are involved?

    Here’s what to look out for to get the best from online parenting groups.

    How can social media groups help?

    In Australia, closed Facebook groups are a popular choice for parents accessing free peer support and information online. Closed groups are not public – they are run by administrators and moderators who can approve requests from other users for membership.

    These groups are often started by not-for-profit organisations or parents themselves and have a number of benefits. Parents can connect with others, share experiences, seek advice and learn about different parenting approaches.

    This can be particularly useful for people in remote and regional areas who may find it harder to access in-person support, and was essential during COVID lockdowns.

    My research with colleagues has revealed the important role these groups can play.

    In several studies we have looked at how parents use closed Facebook groups facilitated by the Australian Breastfeeding Association.

    Over four weeks, we tracked the frequency and type of posts, the number and nature of the comments, and how parents felt about the support they received in these groups.

    We found they provided information and emotional support group members could trust because they were facilitated by trained peer breastfeeding counsellors and other mothers.

    This is significant because we know lack of breastfeeding support is often cited by mothers as one of the key reasons for premature weaning.

    The group administrators played an important role responding to queries and making sure discussions stuck to the association’s code of ethics.

    This code encourages mutual respect, sharing evidence-based information, and co-operation with health professionals. It also discourages the promotion of products and services.

    Our research has shown the value of accessing trusted information and sharing experiences in a supportive community, where human connection is centred rather than products.

    Online groups can help parents connect to a community.
    AnnaStills/Shutterstock

    What’s the problem with monetising groups?

    When access to parenting support and information is limited or biased, it can have serious consequences for those already facing challenges with parenting.

    Let’s imagine an example. A group member is posting about birth trauma. But in responding, other members aren’t allowed to mention local service providers – for example, counselling – because they are not paid sponsors of the group.

    This means advice is skewed towards organisations that can afford to pay for sponsorship and be mentioned.

    As a result, new parents might not find out about the range of not-for-profit support groups that can help them with important challenges like breastfeeding and postpartum mental health.

    This deceptive practice can erode trust within online communities. Users may perceive the platform as prioritising profit over the wellbeing of its members, which can reduce engagement and the overall quality of the group.

    It may also leave new parents – who are particularly vulnerable to unethical marketing – open to exploitation.

    What can we do?

    Protecting parents from commercialised social media groups requires a multifaceted approach.

    First, regulation is crucial, such as ensuring that social media groups are transparent about any commercial interests, and commercial entities are marketing their products ethically.

    Second, we need public awareness campaigns to educate parents about the potential biases and risks associated with commercialised platforms. This includes fostering media literacy skills to critically evaluate information and identify reliable sources.

    Finally, collaboration between policymakers, researchers, industry representatives, and parent advocacy groups is vital to develop effective solutions that address these challenges.

    Parents may already be dealing with challenges such as sleep deprivation.
    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    What should I look out for?

    To protect yourself from misinformation in online parenting groups, it’s crucial to be critical of information sources. It’s a good idea to:

    • watch out for warning signs like excessive product promotion, lack of transparency about group affiliations, and a primary focus on selling. For example, when joining a closed Facebook group, read the page’s “about” section. If there is mention of advertising or sponsorship, this is a red flag

    • look at who the “admins” are. If listed admins include business names that can also be a cause for concern

    • check out the list of “members”. If the group accepts “pages” (which are often run by businesses) in addition to individual people, this is also a sign that commercial interests are at play.

    • look for groups focused on sharing experiences, offering support, and building authentic relationships

    • observe how members interact and how heavily the groups are moderated and censored, and seek out groups with diverse perspectives

    • when you join the group, carefully consider the group rules that you are agreeing to and what they say about mentioning support services, and the promotion of commercial products. Will this mean that you may be censored or receive censored information?

    Always cross-reference information with reputable sources like government organisations (such as the Raising Children Network or Australian Breastfeeding Association) and compare information from multiple sources to get a balanced perspective.

    Finally, trust your instincts. If a group feels “off” or overly promotional, don’t hesitate to leave.

    Nicole Bridges is a volunteer breastfeeding counsellor and educator with the Australian Breastfeeding Association.

    – ref. Social media groups can offer support to new parents. Here’s how to tell if there’s marketing involved – https://theconversation.com/social-media-groups-can-offer-support-to-new-parents-heres-how-to-tell-if-theres-marketing-involved-247212

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia improves on global corruption rankings, but there is still work to be done

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By A J Brown, Professor of Public Policy & Law, Centre for Governance & Public Policy, Griffith University

    Australia has turned the corner on its decade-long slide on Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), once again ranking in the top ten least corrupt countries in the world. The fresh ranking comes just ahead of a federal election, which will determine the future of many key anti-corruption reforms.

    In the latest 2024 index, Australia rose two points to a score of 77 on the 100-point scale. The index is the world’s most widely cited indicator of how countries are faring in controlling corruption in government.

    The result confirms a positive trend, placing Australia back in the top 10 countries for the first time since 2016. It now sits at equal 10th alongside Iceland and Ireland.

    In 2012, Australia was ranked as the 7th least corrupt country in the world, with a score of 85 out of 100. But by 2021 it had fallen to a score of 73 and 18th place on the index.

    With that fall widely attributed to a decade of complacency and foot-dragging on efforts to bolster integrity in government, the confirmed recovery is a major affirmation of reforms of the past three years. It also highlights some stark choices for policymakers heading into the 2025 federal election.

    The best – and worst – places for corruption

    Globally, Denmark again tops the index with a score of 90, followed by Finland on 88. The most corrupt countries in the world are Venezuela (10), Somalia (9) and South Sudan (8).

    However, the global outlook is highly challenging. Over the past ten years, many more countries have now declined significantly in their anti-corruption scores (47 countries) than have improved on the index (32 countries).

    Australia’s recovery is therefore now bucking a negative trend, including the “integrity complacency” still affecting many other developed countries. The United Kingdom (71/100) and United States (65/100) have now fallen to their own lowest-ever scores on the index.

    The index is compiled from 13 independent surveys of professional and expert perceptions of public sector corruption across the world. Nine sources were used to inform Australia’s result – including include Freedom House, the World Justice Project and the World Bank’s Executive Opinion Survey.

    Two sources had Australia still declining, including the global academic-led Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. However, six sources rate Australia as improving, led by the Economist Intelligence Unit’s assessment, conducted most recently in September 2024.

    Australian reforms are making a difference

    There’s now little doubt that the federal integrity reforms of the past three years are a major reason for Australia’s new direction of travel. These include the creation of the National Anti-Corruption Commission in 2022, as well as the long overdue strengthening of Australia’s foreign bribery laws in 2024. A renewed commitment to the global Open Government Partnership, much of the response to Robodebt, and measures to strengthen merit in public appointments, such as replacement of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, have also helped.

    Long overdue anti-money laundering laws were also introduced late in 2024, beyond the time frame for data collection for the latest index. While the impact of these on expert opinion will be known in the future, they highlight that much of the business of Australia’s anti-corruption “catch up” is unfinished and ongoing.

    The result poses a challenge for any policymakers suffering under the illusion that Australia’s integrity systems are somehow “fixed”.

    From an international perspective, Australia is yet to move to control secret and sham company ownerships – the major vehicle used to hide bribes and stolen public money. This is despite championing transparency in the beneficial ownership of companies since hosting the G20 in 2014.

    The need to bring transparency and integrity to federal political donation and funding laws continues to overshadow the last weeks of the 47th parliament. Negotiations between the major parties have failed to inspire confidence among independents, and much of the public.

    Effective control of undue influence in decision-making, pork-barrelling, professional lobbying and “revolving door” jobs for politicians and public servants are ongoing challenges.

    And in a clear signal to both the Labor government and the Coalition, a team of cross-benchers, led by independent Andrew Wilkie, have introduced a bill to establish a Whistleblower Protection Authority. This remains the single biggest gap in Australia’s integrity system and the most major anti-corruption reform still needed.

    Even before Australia hit its 2022 low, some leaders were softening citizens up to accept a reduced position on the index. In 2018, Coalition Attorney-General Christian Porter claimed Australia had remained “consistently in the top 20 countries on Earth for low corruption”. This prompted independent Rebekha Sharkie to point out that Australia had fallen from the top ten: “the trajectory is not good”.

    By contrast, Labor leader Anthony Albanese went into the last election accusing the Morrison government of dragging Australia down on corruption, and promising Labor would do better. He said:

    The health of our democracy, the integrity of our institutions, the transparency and fairness of our laws, the harmony and cohesion of our population. These aren’t just noble ideals. They are a powerful defence against the threat of modern authoritarianism.

    Amid the challenges, there is hope. The federal parliament’s reform record of the past three years is clearly a big step in the right direction.

    However, the climb back to 77 on the Corruption Perceptions Index shows it’s clearly just the first step in securing Australia’s reputation as a democracy that protects itself against undue influence and abuse of power.

    A J Brown AM is Chair of Transparency International Australia. He has received funding from the Australian Research Council and all Australian governments for research on public interest whistleblowing, integrity and anti-corruption reform through partners including Australia’s federal and state Ombudsmen and other regulatory agencies, parliaments, anti-corruption agencies and private sector bodies. He was a member of the Commonwealth Ministerial Expert Panel on Whistleblowing (2017-2019) and is a member of the Queensland Public Sector Governance Council.

    – ref. Australia improves on global corruption rankings, but there is still work to be done – https://theconversation.com/australia-improves-on-global-corruption-rankings-but-there-is-still-work-to-be-done-249458

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Whether we carve out an exemption or not, Trump’s latest tariffs will still hit Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scott French, Senior Lecturer in Economics, UNSW Sydney

    US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have stated an exemption for Australia from Trump’s executive order placing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imported into the US is “under consideration”. But prospects remain uncertain.

    Albanese would do well to secure an exemption using similar arguments as then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull did in 2018.

    If Australia cannot obtain a carve-out from the tariffs, the main group affected will be the Australian producers of steel and aluminium. But the size of the hit they will take is difficult to predict.

    Regardless of whether Australia gets an exemption, the world economy – and Australians – will be affected by Trump’s latest round of tariffs.

    Producers will be hit

    If ultimately imposed by the US, these tariffs will make steel and aluminium produced in Australia more expensive for US manufacturers relative to domestically produced alternatives. This will certainly result in reduced demand for the Australian products.

    However, three factors will help limit the effects:

    1. The price of metals produced in the US will rise

    It will take time to ramp up US production to fill the gap of reduced imports, and the extra production will likely come from less efficient domestic producers. This means that US manufacturers will continue to buy imported metals, despite the higher prices.

    2. The US is not a huge market for Australian steel and aluminium

    Australia produced A$113 billion of primary and fabricated metal in the 2022-23 financial year, according to the ABS.

    By comparison, less than $1 billion of steel and aluminium was exported to the US in 2023, according to data from UN Comtrade, consisting of about $500 million of aluminium and less then $400 million of steel. Exports to the US account for about 10% of Australia’s total exports of these metals.

    3. Major markets

    If major markets such as China and the European Union enact retaliatory tariffs on US metals, this could make Australian metals more competitive in these markets.

    Some stand to benefit

    While workers in Australian steel and aluminium plants will be watching the news with trepidation, some of Australia’s biggest manufacturing companies may be less concerned.

    For example, BlueScope Steel has significant US steel operations, and saw its share price increase on news of the tariffs.

    US-based Alcoa, which owns alumina refineries in Western Australia and an aluminium smelter in Victoria, will also expect to see its US operations benefit.

    And Rio Tinto will be most concerned about its substantial Canadian operations. Its Canadian hub is responsible for close to half of its global aluminium production.

    Demand for iron ore could fall

    The US tariffs will also have wider ranging effects on the Australian economy, regardless of whether Australia’s products are directly targeted.

    While aluminium is Australia’s top manufacturing export, it still makes up only about 1% of total exports, and steel makes up less than half that.

    Iron ore, by contrast, makes up more than 20% of Australia’s exports, with aluminium ores making up an additional 1.5%.

    This means the effect of the tariffs on demand for the raw materials to make steel and aluminium may have the largest detrimental effect on the Australian economy.

    Because the tariffs will make steel and aluminium more expensive to US manufacturers, they will seek to reduce their use of them. This means global demand for the metals, and the ores used to produce them, will decline.

    Investors appear to be betting on this, with shares of Australian miners like Rio Tinto and BHP falling since Trump announced the tariffs.

    Imported goods will become more expensive

    Many of the things Australians buy are likely to get more expensive.

    All US products that use steel and aluminium at any stage of the production process will also become more expensive. Tariffs will raise the cost of steel and aluminium for US manufacturers, both directly and by reducing overall productivity in the US.

    About 11% of Australia’s imports come from the US. And about half of this consists of machinery, vehicles, aircraft, and medical instruments, which typically contain steel and aluminium. Further, these goods are used by manufacturers around the world to produce and transport many of the other things Australians buy.

    Scott French does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Whether we carve out an exemption or not, Trump’s latest tariffs will still hit Australia – https://theconversation.com/whether-we-carve-out-an-exemption-or-not-trumps-latest-tariffs-will-still-hit-australia-249493

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: American Primeval includes brutal displays of Mormon violence, but the reality was arguably worse

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brenton Griffin, Casual Lecturer and Tutor in History, Indigenous Studies, and Politics, Flinders University

    American Primeval/Netflix

    On January 24, leaders of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, more commonly known as the Mormon Church, penned a statement condemning the Netflix series American Primeval.

    This historical fiction depicts the Mountain Meadows Massacre of 1857, as well as broader hostilities between the US government and Mormons at Salt Lake City during the Utah War of 1857–58.

    The church has criticised the series for its portrayal of the Mormon prophet Brigham Young, who it claims is “egregiously mischaracterized as a villainous, violent fanatic”. It also says the series

    inaccurately portrays [the Mountain Meadows Massacre] as reflective of a whole faith group, [when] the Church has long acknowledged and condemned this horrific tragedy.

    The reality of the massacre was arguably even grimmer than what American Primeval shows. Contrary to what is depicted in the series, there were no adult survivors. Official sources state up to 150 people were killed. Only 17 children under the age of six were spared, who were then discreetly adopted into Mormon families.

    A (nuanced) history of violence

    Although onscreen depictions of Mormon violence are common, most of these fail to explain the roots of this violence in both theological belief and history.

    Canonised Mormon scripture, including in the Book of Mormon and The Doctrine and Covenants, and pronouncements from leaders such as Joseph Smith and Brigham Young, argue some violence is appropriate and required as per God’s commandment. Justifications for violence had been used against both outsiders and insiders since the religion was founded in 1830 by Joseph Smith (who himself was assassinated in 1844).

    The other driver is the lived experiences of Mormons. Throughout their history, Mormons had been forcefully removed from wherever they have settled, most prolifically under the Missouri “extermination order” of 1838.

    This resulted in the slaughter, rape and violent relocation of Mormons from Missouri to their temporary home in Illinois, before they further migrated to Zion – a religious community established by Young and his followers in Utah – in 1847.

    The Mormons’ establishment of Salt Lake City and surrounding cities in 1847 was based on the violent dispossession of Indigenous communities. As shown in American Primeval, the Utah War and the period surrounding it was dominated by violence.

    This included violence from Mormons and other settlers against Native Americans whose lands were being dispossessed, from Native Americans defending their lands, and from the US government against Mormons and Native Americans.

    In the Mountain Meadows Massacre, Mormons and Native Americans allied against US emigrants travelling to California.

    A depiction of the 1857 Mountain Meadows Massacre.
    Shutterstock

    The two threads of theology and history are integral to understanding the way Mormon violence has been both enacted and represented.

    Portrayals in 19th-century media

    Mormonism first reached Australia’s shores in 1840 and remained a small religious minority in the 19th and 20th centuries. Converts were encouraged to migrate to Utah to help build Zion.

    Australian newspapers reported widely on the Mountain Meadows Massacre of 1857. These articles were mostly reprints of the same information. They were largely accurate, but inflated the number of victims.

    The articles explained how the slaughter had originally been assigned solely to Native Americans, but was later discovered to have been orchestrated by the Mormons, with assistance from some Indigenous tribes.

    Interest began to wane in the 1860s, but picked up again in 1877 following the execution of perpetrator John D. Lee. However, in his book and “confession”, Mormonism Unveiled (1877), Lee claimed he had been scapegoated by Young and other leaders.

    Photographs from 1877 show officers, soldiers and spectators at Mountain Meadows, Utah, following the execution of John D. Lee.
    Library Of Congress

    Spotlight on the Danites

    Interest in Mormon violence wasn’t confined to the Mountain Meadows Massacre. Australian newspapers also discussed the Danites, a band of religiously motivated vigilantes involved in Mormon hostilities in Missouri and Illinois in the 1830s.

    These vigilantes were inspired by Smith’s theological claims and a goal to defend Mormons from harm. They participated in both aggressive and defensive violence against their non-Mormon neighbours.

    Historians have debated the extent of the Danites’ existence, with official church statements claiming they ceased to exist in 1838. Yet in 1858, Brigham Young threatened, “if men come here and do not behave themselves, they will […] find the Danites, whom they talk so much about”.

    The group is first mentioned in Australian media by the late 1850s, with descriptions of Danite “atrocities” disseminated widely, though largely uncorroborated.

    By the 1870s and ‘80s, this had progressed to portrayals in popular culture, including in Australian theatres and Arthur Conan Doyle’s 1887 novel Sherlock Holmes: A Study In Scarlet.

    Media representations of Mormon violence continued into the 20th century. The 1917 American film A Mormon Maid focused on theocratic violence and polygamy, which had been allowed in Mormonism until its ban in 1890.

    A 1952 article in Queensland’s The Truth recounting the Mountain Meadow Massacre.
    Trove

    The modern Mormon

    Our collective fascination with Mormonism today is augmented by the religion’s marginal yet undeniable presence, both in Australia and overseas.

    There are about 17 million Mormons worldwide. Of these, an estimated 157,000 are in Australia (about 0.6% of the population) compared with almost seven million in the United States (about 2% of the population).

    Modern portrayals of Mormonism have tended towards the humorous (The Book of Mormon musical), scandalous (The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives), and even sympathetic (Heretic).

    Even recent representations of Mormon violence, such as in Under the Banner of Heaven (2022), have focused on breakaway fundamentalists rather than the mainstream Mormon church.

    Outrage towards Mormons has focused on the religion’s extreme wealth, influence over political issues such as opposition to same-sex marriage, and the rise of Mormon “tradwife” influencers.

    But I argue these are divergences from the more prominent historical trend of painting Mormons as violent zealots (or in some cases as sexually amoral heretics). And despite these, the spectre of Mormon violence remains – reinforced periodically over nearly 200 years of popular culture and media.

    Brenton Griffin was raised as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, but is no longer a practising member of the church. His PhD research is focused on the religion’s place in Australian and New Zealand popular culture, politics, and society from the nineteenth century to present.

    – ref. American Primeval includes brutal displays of Mormon violence, but the reality was arguably worse – https://theconversation.com/american-primeval-includes-brutal-displays-of-mormon-violence-but-the-reality-was-arguably-worse-249377

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What are physician assistants? Can they fix the doctor shortage?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Nissen, HERA Program Director – Health Workforce Optimisation Centre for the Business & Economics of Health, The University of Queensland

    Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

    If you’ve tried to get an appointment to see a GP or specialist recently, you will likely have felt the impact of Australia’s doctor shortages.

    To alleviate workforce shortages, the Queensland government is considering introducing health workers called physician assistants more widely to the state’s health system.

    But the medical body representing physicians, the Royal Australasian College of Physicians, has warned thorough consultation with medical experts is needed first.

    So what exactly are physician assistants? And are they the solution to our workforce issues we’ve been looking for? Let’s look at what the evidence says – and the lessons from abroad.

    What is a physician assistant?

    Physician assistants, also known as physician associates, are trained health professionals who work under the supervision of a doctor. They undertake a variety of tasks including:

    • examining patients
    • ordering and interpreting blood tests
    • assisting in surgery
    • prescribing medicines.

    In general practice, physician assistants may also provide preventative health care such as giving vaccinations and providing health advice.

    Physician assistants commonly complete postgraduate-level university education and a hands-on training program. They may also need to have completed a health-based undergraduate degree.

    In most countries, physician assistants work under a “delegation” model. This means the treating doctor and physician assistant together determine the tasks the physician assistant can undertake, depending on their competence. As their skills and knowledge increase, the level of supervision changes accordingly.

    When were they first used?

    Similar roles have been used throughout history, including in the military. As early as the 1800s, trained assistants known as feldshers (or feldschers) provided basic medical care during times of war, for example in Russia, Bulgaria and Poland.

    The contemporary physician assistant role evolved in the 1960s in the United States. It was initially designed to use the skills of medically trained military servicemen.

    The first physician assistants were military servicemen.
    Andy Gin/Shutterstock

    Since then, it has become an accepted and well established part of the health care team in the US, where the medical profession supports the physician assistant role and contributes to its regulation.

    There are currently more than 178,000 physician assistants practising in the US, across a wide range of settings. Around one-quarter work in family/general medicine and one-fifth in rural and medically under-served areas.

    Physician assistants can be found in many countries, including Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands.

    Australia previously trialled physician assistant in two states, Queensland and South Australia. Like other countries, the role was found to be effective and acceptable.

    What does the research say about their use?

    Most research about physician assistants originates from the US. Studies spanning several decades show physician assistants provide safe and appropriate care. They can competently undertake consultations, perform complex procedures, provide preventative health care, treat non-complex patients in the emergency department and provide a wide range of services in rural areas.

    Most studies have reported patient satisfaction with the physician assistant role.

    Research has found it’s cost-effective to use physician assistants, including for complex patients.

    Physician assistants can improve the continuity of patient care in hospitals, as they remain with their supervising doctor rather than moving between hospital areas as trainee doctors do. This enables them to maintain consistent contact with patients, their families and other members of the health-care team.

    Using physician assistants in emergency departments enables doctors to review more complex patients.

    In surgery, physician assistants can reduce the workload on resident doctors. They can prepare patients for surgery, review them afterwards and perform some surgical procedures. They can also reduce the time patients stay in hospital.

    Physician assistants can also provide care in rural and remote areas and have worked with Aboriginal health workers in remote areas of Australia.

    What do Australian policymakers need to consider?

    Like many other countries, the Australian health workforce is under pressure. Recent reviews have highlighted the need to examine how the health system and workforce can more effectively meet the needs of the community. This includes making better use of all current health professions by enabling them to perform the tasks they have been trained to do.

    Health professionals must ensure their care keeps patients safe and aligns with public expectations. This relies on appropriate education and training, funding and payment policies, governance and regulation. Effective regulation ensures health professionals are held accountable for their practice, according to defined professional practice expectations.

    Despite physician assistants being trialled in Queensland and SA, the role did not gain the support of the medical profession. As a result, only a small number of physician assistants are currently practising. And Australia no longer provides education programs for physician assistants.

    Several factors affected the acceptance of the physician assistant role.

    Their skills and competence weren’t widely understood or recognised. This meant their scope of practice was poorly defined, which may have been confusing for both patients and health professionals.

    The profession was also unable to access Medicare rebates or Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme subsidies for patient consultations or scripts. This limited their full involvement in some health services such as general practice.

    What could we do better?

    Australia needs to learn from the available evidence when considering a possible role for physician assistants.

    In the US and Canada, for example, a close relationship between the medical and physician assistant professions has provided guidance and support for the role, and ensured physician assistants are accountable for their practice, through the development of “expected standards” of practice.

    As demand for health services increases, it makes sense to explore the addition of physician assistants to Australia’s health-care workforce, if safety and quality can be assured, and health care teams function optimally.

    Lisa Nissen receives funding from the Commonwealth Department and Aging and jurisdictional health departments for research related to Health Workforce Optimization and team based care.

    Lynda Cardiff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What are physician assistants? Can they fix the doctor shortage? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-physician-assistants-can-they-fix-the-doctor-shortage-247560

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Byelections show Labor is in trouble in Victoria – but how much will Peter Dutton benefit?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Strangio, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Monash University

    Is history repeating itself in Labor’s fortress state of Victoria?

    At the 1990 federal election, Bob Hawke’s Labor government had a near-death experience when it lost nine seats in Victoria. A furious Hawke laid the blame squarely at the feet of John Cain’s state Labor government, which was listing badly in its third term due especially to a series of financial calamities.

    Less than six months later, a broken Cain, one of Victoria’s great reformist premiers, resigned. His successor was Joan Kirner, the state’s first woman leader. Despite battling gamely, she was unable to avert a landslide Labor defeat in 1992.

    Wind forward to the present and there are some eerily similar dynamics. Anthony Albanese’s government will shortly head to the polls at a time when Jacinta Allan’s ageing Labor administration is in deep political strife in a state groaning under mountainous public debt.

    Labor decline

    Saturday’s twin byelection results highlight state Labor’s parlous position. In the inner urban seat of Prahran, the ALP was so accepting of its lack of competitiveness that it didn’t field a candidate.

    The Liberal Party achieved a modest primary vote swing of 4.8%, which was enough to snatch the decade-long held Greens seat.

    In the outer western suburban seat of Werribee, Labor’s primary vote collapsed by more than 16%. But the Liberal Party only increased its first vote by a relatively paltry 3.7%. To put that in perspective, the Victorian Socialists enjoyed an equivalent lift in support.

    Inevitably, much ink is being spilt trying to divine what these byelection results portend for the Albanese government. In short, whether the unpopularity of the Allan government threatens to unseat federal Labor and open the door to a Peter Dutton prime ministership.

    State stronghold

    Victoria has been a citadel for the ALP, both state and federal, for decades. John Howard’s dubbing of the state as the “Massachusetts of Australia” has become almost cliched so often it is invoked by journalists as a shorthand way of describing Victoria’s predisposition for left-of-centre voting behaviour. It is a label first ascribed to Victoria in the 19th century showing how long it has been known for its progressive political temperament. It is a trait coiled in the state’s political DNA.

    Following the 2022 federal election, the Coalition held only 11 out of 39 seats in Victoria. The Liberals were nearly banished entirely from metropolitan Melbourne, where they now hold just two electorates, Deakin and Menzies (the fringe outer suburban seats of Casey and La Trobe are classified by the AEC as rural and provincial respectively).

    To compound matters, boundary redistributions have since wiped out the Liberals’ margin in Deakin and turned Menzies into a notional Labor seat. All of this means that the federal Coalition must perform substantially better in Victoria, and specifically Melbourne, if its to have a viable path to power.

    State Labor’s political doldrums have offered some hope to Dutton, who is targeting four seats in Victoria, and at a stretch, five: Aston, Chisholm, Goldstein (held by the Teal, Zoe Daniel), McEwen and Dunkley. Notably, only three of those seats – Aston, McEwen and Dunkley – are outer suburban. And the latter is considered the least likely to fall.

    Dutton’s pitch to the suburbs

    Nonetheless, the outer suburbs are a key to Dutton’s election strategy. It’s where he is seeking a major realignment of Australia’s electoral politics by pillaging traditional Labor working class and lower middle class voters.

    This strategy isn’t unprecedented. The so-called “battler” vote was a component, albeit exaggerated, of John Howard’s formula for electoral success as he reoriented the Liberal Party towards conservative populism. Dutton is aggressively doubling down on that pivot.

    The Werribee result, however, can hardly be construed as a harbinger of Liberals storming the ramparts of the outer suburbs. The party’s primary vote in the byelection was only 29%, indicating voters in such areas, which are characterised by breakneck growth and a tsunami of demographic change, are still wary of the local Liberals.

    That scepticism is understandable. For years now, the Victorian Liberal party has been deeply dysfunctional. It has been consumed by ideological and personal feuds, out of sync with the state’s progressive attitudes, low on talent, and seemingly habituated to reposing in opposition rather than presenting as a serious alternative government.

    But, even allowing for such Victorian specific factors (and it is far from the only under-performing Liberal division across the country – think of South Australia and Western Australia), the Werribee result suggests Dutton’s outer suburban focus will not easily yield sizeable dividends, and certainly not in one electoral cycle. It will be a slow burn at best.

    In the meantime, if the Liberals are to win government, they will need to make up ground in inner and middle metropolitan electorates, including Teal-held seats, to which Dutton is far less attuned.

    Major party disenchantment

    What Saturday’s byelections mostly underscored is the dissatisfaction with all of the established parties, including the Greens, whose vote flat-lined in both Prahran and Werribee.

    The disenchantment was expressed in the approximate one third of votes that went to a melange of other parties or independent candidates. This is consistent with the trend that so dramatically materialised at the 2022 federal election when a fractious public voted along increasingly fragmented lines.

    Rather than any party enjoying a grand sweep of the outer suburbs or elsewhere, that is what we can expect at the impending federal election: volatility and unpredictability which is confirmed as the new normal.

    In the past, Paul Strangio received funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Byelections show Labor is in trouble in Victoria – but how much will Peter Dutton benefit? – https://theconversation.com/byelections-show-labor-is-in-trouble-in-victoria-but-how-much-will-peter-dutton-benefit-249479

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Explainer: what does it actually mean to ‘firm’ renewables?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peta Ashworth, Professor and Director, Curtin Institute for Energy Transition, Curtin University

    Large power grids are among the most complicated machines humans have ever devised. Different generators produce power at various times and at various costs. A generator might fail and another fills the gap. Demand soars in the evenings and on hot days. In Australia, eastern and southern states trade power across borders. Meanwhile, Western Australia has two grids and the Northern Territory has several.

    But these complicated machines are undergoing major change, as we shift from large fossil fuel plants to cleaner forms of power. Wind and sun are now the cheapest way to produce electricity. These renewable sources will soon overtake coal and gas – they’re already averaging 40% of power flowing through the national grid.

    Solar and wind are often called “variable” renewable energy sources. Variable, here, refers to the fact the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. On sunny, windy days we get lots of cheap power. But on still nights, we might get little.

    This is where “firming” comes in. To firm renewables is to convert this cheap but variable source of power into what we really want: a reliable supply of electricity, there when we need it. Big battery projects are one way to do it. But there are others.

    Solar and wind are often called ‘variable’ renewable energy sources.
    Damitha Jayawardena/Shutterstock

    How does firming work?

    Storage is the best known way to firm renewables. As floods of cheap power come in, you can store it for later use.

    Storage can be performed by grid-scale batteries, where the power is stored directly. But it can also be done by pumped hydro, where water is pumped uphill when power is cheap and plentiful and run back downhill, through turbines, when power is harder to source.

    Firming can also be done by virtual power plants – aggregated fleets of smaller batteries in homes and electric vehicles.

    Gas peaking plants are another way of firming renewables. In the future, gas plants will go from being a mainstay to the equivalent of a backup generator, fired up only when needed.

    Generally, energy storage facilities offer either short- or long-term firming. As more renewable power enters Australia’s grids, we will need both. This is because they offer different levels of storage and response times.

    Short term can be as short as seconds to a few hours. Batteries are a common way to provide short-term firming, because they can ramp up very quickly to tackle sudden fluctuations in supply or demand. These fast-response systems help stabilise the grid by smoothing out spikes caused by changing weather.

    Long-term firming can be for hours, days or even weeks. This includes large-scale battery storage or back-up generators such as gas plants. Long-term options are crucial to maintain power supply during extended periods of low renewable generation, such as still, cold days and nights in winter.

    Firming turns cheap solar and wind into reliable, stable power.
    Taras Vyshnya/Shutterstock

    How are we tracking with firming renewables?

    In recent years, large-scale battery announcements have ramped up. Almost 8 gigawatts of battery capacity is now in progress or anticipated to start construction shortly. But the pipeline of future projects is much larger: 75 gigawatts of firming will be required.

    While renewable power is cheap, to make it useful and reliable in addition to storage, we need transmission lines to connect large renewable zones to cities and towns. All this adds extra costs.

    As the level of renewables in our power grids inches higher, firming costs increase. This is especially true when a grid goes from 95% to 100% renewables, when there’s a sudden jump in cost.

    This is why experts have argued for keeping a few gas peaking plants. While they are not emission-free, they are flexible and can start up much more rapidly than coal. They will likely play a key role in firming the grid during renewable droughts and extreme demand – an estimated 5% of the year. That sounds small, but they will be essential.

    Eventually, gas peaking plants could switch to hydrogen, if the fuel becomes cost effective. This would cut emissions further.

    Firming – at home?

    Homes with batteries can also help firm the network by joining a virtual power plant. These networks of batteries can be digitally coordinated to function as a single power plant, helping stabilise the grid.

    If a home owner signs up to a virtual power plant program, they hand over some control in return for income. Technologies such as this can support grid stability by charging or discharging in response to supply fluctuations.

    These networks are a flexible energy resource. They can inject power to the grid instantly if there’s a sudden drop in solar or wind generation. They can also soak up surplus energy.

    These aren’t hypothetical. Several are running or in development in Australia, such as the AGL virtual power plant in South Australia, SolarHub in New South Wales and the new ARENA-funded Project Jupiter in Western Australia, which will commence soon.

    Is firming helping?

    Firming technologies are already helping in high-renewable grids overseas. Big batteries now allow California’s grid to absorb more renewables, by soaking up daytime solar and releasing it at evening peak.

    Power from renewables such as solar need to be firmed to maximise use in the grid.
    The Desert Photo/Shutterstock

    We’re seeing the benefits of firming locally, too.

    On January 20 this year, a heatwave in Western Australia triggered a new record for peak electricity demand – 4.4 gigawatts – in the state’s main electricity network, the South West Interconnected System.

    In response, recently built battery storage at Kwinana, Collie, and Cunderdin stored excess power and discharged it at peak times.

    The next day, dense clouds swept in, slashing solar output and reducing peak demand. In response, gas generators increased output to firm the grid.

    Firming technologies are already playing a vital role in keeping our electricity supply stable, reliable and resilient – and it’s just the start.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Explainer: what does it actually mean to ‘firm’ renewables? – https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-does-it-actually-mean-to-firm-renewables-248134

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Thousands of Australian pets may soon have ‘useless’ microchips. It’s a symptom of a bigger problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn Orr, Veterinarian, Southern Cross University

    Mitchell Orr/Unsplash

    Late last year, rumours swirled online that HomeSafeID, a private Australian pet microchip registry, had stopped operating.

    On Feburary 5 2025, a notice appeared on the HomeSafeID website, ostensibly from the site’s administrator. It states the website “is likely to go offline” soon due to unpaid bills. This means the database of information stored on HomeSafeID would also go offline.

    There has been no official word from HomeSafeID as to the status of the company. HomeSafeID did not respond when The Conversation reached out for comment.

    According to the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), the company is still registered and no insolvency notice has been published. However, it’s possible HomeSafeID has stopped operating or will do so in the near future.

    If this happens, any pet with a HomeSafeID registered microchip would no longer have searchable microchip details. If these pets become lost, vets and shelters will have no way of finding or verifying their owner.

    The situation is a symptom of a bigger problem with pet microchip registries in Australia – a lack of national oversight.

    Why should you microchip your pet?

    If your pet goes missing, their microchip is key to you being reunited. Vets and shelters can scan a stray animal’s microchip, search one of the seven microchip registries in Australia, find the pet owner’s details and contact them. Pet microchips significantly increase the likelihood lost pets will be reclaimed by their owners.

    In fact, microchipping pets is a legal requirement in all states and territories of Australia except the Northern Territory, although it is required in the City of Darwin. In New South Wales, fines for failing to microchip your pet range from A$180 to $880.

    A pet microchip should contain up-to-date details of the pet’s owner so they can be contacted if the animal becomes lost.
    Todorean-Gabriel/Shutterstock

    If HomeSafeID does go offline, many pets will have microchips that don’t connect to a database any more, making them essentially useless.

    It’s difficult to estimate the scale of the problem, but it could affect hundreds of thousands of pets, including ones adopted from RSPCA Queensland.

    According to ASIC, RSPCA Queensland was a part-owner of HomeSafeID until 2020. A spokesperson for the charity told The Conversation it has no current partnership with HomeSafeID, and “don’t know the extent of how many animals are affected”. Yesterday, RSPCA Queensland issued advice for pet owners to check their registration details.

    Where are microchip details stored?

    There are currently seven registries in Australia. Five are privately owned, including HomeSafeID, and two are owned by state governments, in NSW and South Australia. Pets microchipped in those states are meant to be registered with the state registry.

    The five private registries jointly fund a website called Pet Address, which allows you to search the five private databases to find where your pet’s details are stored.

    However, Pet Address doesn’t cover the state registries – these have to be searched separately. Only NSW vets and “authorised identifiers” (such as shelters) can access the pet owner details stored in the NSW registry.

    If a pet is moved to another state but their owner doesn’t update the registry, their microchip won’t be readable in the new location by non-NSW vets and shelters.

    There are currently no rules, regulations or even guidelines around how private pet microchip registries should operate in Australia. If a microchip database were to cease operating, there is no safety net to ensure information is automatically moved to another database.

    A vet can scan your pet’s microchip to retrieve the number and find out the registration details.
    Lucky Business/Shutterstock

    What can I do to make sure my pet’s microchip is up to date?

    Given current uncertainty around the HomeSafeID registry, pet owners across Australia should check their pets’ microchip numbers and find out which database they’re registered in.

    If you don’t already know your pet’s microchip number, vets and shelters can use a microchip scanner to find that number for you. Then, you can run it through Pet Address or the SA and NSW registries where relevant, to find out which database the number is registered on.

    If your pet’s microchip is currently with HomeSafeID, it might be prudent to move your pet’s details to another database. You can do this by contacting one of the other microchip registries and applying to register with their database (this may involve a small fee).

    Australia needs national coordination on pet microchipping

    Given it’s mandatory to microchip dogs and cats, it might seem strange there are no regulations or guidelines around how microchip registries should operate. However, this is a symptom of a much bigger issue.

    There is almost no national leadership or collaboration on companion animal issues in Australia. Pets are firmly the domain of state governments, with the federal government only really involved in the export and import of companion animals.

    There are, however, avenues for national coordination. The renewal of the Australian Animal Welfare Strategy is one, and the national Animal Health Committee is another.

    Regardless of who takes responsibility, it’s clear a round table on pet microchipping is urgently required to prevent hundreds of thousands of pets walking around with microchips that don’t work anymore.

    Otherwise, lost pets may find themselves at shelters and pounds unnecessarily, and animals that might have otherwise been returned home could end up being adopted, or worse, euthanised.

    Bronwyn Orr is a Director of the Walk In Clinic For Animals and Veterinary Support Group.

    – ref. Thousands of Australian pets may soon have ‘useless’ microchips. It’s a symptom of a bigger problem – https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-australian-pets-may-soon-have-useless-microchips-its-a-symptom-of-a-bigger-problem-249492

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump agrees to consider Australian exemption from tariffs, describing Albanese as ‘very fine man’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    US President Donald Trump has agreed to “consider” exempting Australia from the 25% tariff he has imposed on imports of steel and aluminium to the US.

    Trump gave the undertaking during a wide-ranging 40-minute conversation with Anthony Albanese early Tuesday morning (Australian time). The prime minister, speaking to a news conference soon afterwards, stressed that Trump had agreed on the precise words to be used to describe the outcome.  

    “I presented Australia’s case for an exemption and we agreed on wording to say publicly, which is that the US president agreed that an exemption was under consideration in the interests of both of our countries.”

    Albanese gave no indication of when he expects a decision.

    Meanwhile, Trump has signed the executive orders for the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium without exemptions.

    The Australian government might be able to take heart from Trump’s later comments on the discussion.

    The president described Albanese as a “very fine man”.

    “We have a surplus with Australia, one of the few, and the reason is they buy a lot of airplanes. They’re rather far away and they need lots of airplanes. We actually have a surplus. It’s one of the only countries which we do. I told him that that’s something that we’ll give great consideration to,” he told the media.

    Pressed on whether he was confident of an exemption, Albanese would not speculate beyond the agreed words. “The words that I’ve used are the words that I’ll stick to,” he said.

    “It’s appropriate when you’re dealing with the president of the United States to not speak on his behalf. And those are the words that were agreed.”

    “We’ll continue to engage diplomatically.” Albanese said, “Australia will always stand up for Australia’s interests […] We’ll continue to put the case.”

    The prime minister described the call as “constructive and warm” and posted on social media that it was a “great conversation”.

    Outlining Australia’s argument for an exemption Albanese said the US had a trade surplus with Australia of about two to one, and steel supplier BlueScope had extensive production in the US.

    “When you look at the imports of these products into the US, it’s about 1% of imports of steel, 2% of aluminium,” he told his news conference.

    “Our steel is an important input to US manufacturing. BlueScope is the US’s fifth largest steelmaker. They’ve invested $5 billion in the US across a range of states. I think there’s more than 30 different investments there.

    “Of course the major export is Colorbond there, for roofs in California on the west coast. And it plays an important role.

    “Aluminium is a critical input for manufacturing in the United States and our steel and aluminium are both key inputs for the US-Australian defence industries. in both of our countries.”

    Albanese said that in the conversation, “We spoke about a range of other things as well, including the fact that Jordan Mailata is a Super Bowl champion and I did point out that he was a South Sydney junior”.

    The call, which was in train before the tariff announcement, also canvassed critical minerals and AUKUS.

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton again criticised Albanese over his past comments about Trump. But the opposition leader told a news conference: “What’s important now is the Trump administration hears there is a bipartisan position in Australia to stand up for our national interest and that national interest is best served by a removal of the tariff as it applies to Australia.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump agrees to consider Australian exemption from tariffs, describing Albanese as ‘very fine man’ – https://theconversation.com/trump-agrees-to-consider-australian-exemption-from-tariffs-describing-albanese-as-very-fine-man-248886

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Israeli police cite children’s ‘colouring book’ for Palestinian bookshop raid

    Pacific Media Watch

    Israeli police have confiscated hundreds of books with Palestinian titles or flags without understanding their contents in a draconian raid on a Palestinian educational bookshop in occupied East Jerusalem, say eyewitnesses.

    More details have emerged on the Israeli police raid on a popular bookstore in occupied East Jerusalem.

    The owners were arrested but police reportedly dropped charges of incitement while still detaining them for “disturbing the public order”.

    The bookstore’s owners, Ahmed and Mahmoud Muna, were detained, and hundreds of titles related to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict confiscated, before police ordered the store’s closure, according to May Muna, Mahmoud’s wife, reports Al Jazeera.

    She said the soldiers picked out books with Palestinian titles or flags, “without knowing what any of them meant”.

    She said they used Google Translate on some of the Arabic titles to see what they meant before carting them away in plastic bags.

    Another police bookshop raid
    Police raided another Palestinian-owned bookstore in the Old City in East Jerusalem last week. In a statement, the police said the two owners were arrested on suspicion of “selling books containing incitement and support for terrorism”.

    As an example, the police referred to an English-language children’s colouring book titled From the River to the Sea — a reference to the territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea that today includes Israel, the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

    The bookshop raids have been widely condemned as a “war on knowledge and literature”.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Do men and women agree on how easy it is for each other to find a job or a date?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Whyte, Deputy Director – Behavioural Economics, Society and Technology (BEST) Research Group. Chief-Investigator – ARC ITTC Centre for Behavioural Inisghts for Technology Adoption (BITA).), Queensland University of Technology

    The Conversation, DenPhotos/Shutterstock, Mehaniq/Shutterstock

    Typically, you don’t have to write a cover letter before attending a candlelit dinner. But there are some eerie emotional parallels between finding a job and finding a date.

    Both can require you to put yourself “out there” in uncomfortable ways, brace yourself for repeated rejection and grapple with heartache.

    On the flip side, success in either pursuit can significantly boost your confidence and sense of wellbeing – especially if it feels like a good fit.

    This raises the question: do Australians really believe they have equal access to the labour and dating markets?

    Our study, published in the journal Evolutionary Psychology, examined this question in depth, shining a light on how these beliefs are linked, and where they differ.

    Whether Australians’ perceptions of job and dating market access are completely accurate or not, they can certainly have a big impact on the choices we make and the way we behave in both our personal and professional lives.

    Finding a job versus finding a date

    We surveyed more than 1,000 online daters aged between 18 and 81. Our sample only included participants who described their sexual orientation as heterosexual and who identified as either male or female.

    Our study looked at people’s beliefs about how easy it was to find a job or find a date.
    Arthur Bargan/Shutterstock

    It’s important to understand that we were looking specifically at people’s perceptions of their access to these markets.

    That is, we looked at what men and women believed about their own (and the opposite sex’s) ability to find a job or find a date.

    We also examined what both sexes believed about women’s economic dependence on men.

    On average, we found women think it’s easier for men to find a decently paying job. Women also think they’re less economically dependent on male partners than men think women are.

    Both sexes agree it’s easier for women to find a date than men. But men think they have it much worse off on this metric than women think they do.

    Where beliefs diverge

    These perceptions begin to vary significantly with factors such as age, education, number of children and political orientation.

    There are some big differences in how women perceive women’s economic dependence and ease of dating access at different stages of life.

    Middle-aged men and women (aged 35 to 55 years) share similar perspectives on women’s economic dependence. This contrasts with younger and older women, who believe women are significantly less economically dependent on men.

    Women believe they have an easier time finding a date as they age from 18 to 35 years old. This perception then declines sharply from 40 to 75 years or older.

    These patterns align with evolutionary theories, suggesting that access to resources and shifting household dynamics at different life stages influence how men and women view the labour and dating markets.

    Shifting beliefs about access at different age levels may reflect changing household dynamics.
    aijiro/Shutterstock

    Intertwined ‘markets’

    Importantly, we found that perceptions of labour and dating market access are intrinsically linked, and they tend to reflect broader economic conditions.

    For instance, men in high-income areas think they have better job and dating opportunities, while those in areas with greater gender income disparities see women as more economically dependent.

    On the flipside, women in higher-income areas think they are less economically dependent. And those in areas with lower gender gaps in income perceive women’s dating access to be greater.

    This interplay of beliefs is also reflected in participants’ own dating preferences. Women who believe they are more economically dependent on men tend to seek a long-term male partner with greater earning potential than them.

    On the other hand, men who expect to earn more than their ideal partner think it’s easier for men to find a date.

    Beliefs about how easy it is to find a job and find a date are linked.
    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Why does this all matter?

    Economic growth is the way economists and politicians measure increases in our standard of living. It is primarily driven by consumption.

    That’s everyday Australians buying their morning coffees at work, leg hams at Christmas time or splurging on a new cabana for the beach.

    Historically, more consumers meant more consumption, which meant higher economic growth and an increased standard of living.

    Many governments have recognised and acted on this link, encouraging Australians to have more children. Back in the early 2000s, for instance, the Howard government implemented the so-called “baby bonus”.

    Then-Treasurer Peter Costello famously asked the nation to “Have one for mum, one for dad, and one for the country”.

    It worked, sort of. Australia’s birth rates increased modestly.

    Fast forward to today, and these issues are just as relevant. Dating and job market choices still have a significant impact on Australian society, both economically and socially.

    Khandis R Blake receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DE210100800 and DP220101023).

    Benno Torgler, Ho Fai Chan, Rachel Hall, and Stephen Whyte do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Do men and women agree on how easy it is for each other to find a job or a date? – https://theconversation.com/do-men-and-women-agree-on-how-easy-it-is-for-each-other-to-find-a-job-or-a-date-247235

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As Trump abandons the old world order, NZ must find its place in a new ‘Pax Autocratica’

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Chris Ogden, Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Donald Trump is moving rapidly to change the contours of contemporary international affairs, with the old US-dominated world order breaking down into a multipolar one with many centres of power.

    The shift already includes the US leaving the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accords, questioning the value of the United Nations, and radical cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

    Such a new geopolitical age also involves an assertion of raw power, with Trump using the threat of tariffs to assert global authority and negotiating positions.

    While the US is not significantly less powerful, this new era may see it wield that power in more openly self-interested and isolationist ways. As new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio put it in January, “the post-war global order is not just obsolete – it is now a weapon being used against us”.

    With global democracy in retreat, the emerging international order looks to be moving in an authoritarian direction. As it does, the position of New Zealand’s vibrant democracy will come under mounting pressure.

    But world orders have come and gone for millennia, reflecting the ebb and flow of global economic, political and military power. Looking back to previous eras, and how countries and cultures responded to shifting geopolitical realities, can help us understand what is happening more clearly.

    An evolving world order

    Previous orders have often focused on specific centres – or “poles” – of power. These include the Concert of Europe from 1814 to 1914, the bipolar world of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, and the unipolar world of American dominance after the end of the Cold War and since the September 11 attacks in 2001.

    Periods of single-power dominance (or hegemony) are referred to as a “pax”, from the Latin for “peace”. We have seen the Pax Romana of the Roman Empire (27 BCE to 180 AD), multiple Pax Sinicas around China (most recently the Qing Dynasty 1644 to 1912), Pax Mongolica (the Mongol Empire from 1271 to 1368) and Pax Britannica (the British Empire from 1815 to 1924).

    It is the Pax Americana of the US, from 1945 to the present, that Trump seems bent on dismantling. We now live in an international order that is visibly in flux. With autocracy on the rise and the US at its vanguard, a “Pax Autocratica” is emerging.

    This is accentuated by the rapid rise of Asia as the main sphere of economic and military growth, particularly China and India. The world’s two most populous countries had the world’s largest and third largest economies respectively in 2023, and the second and fourth highest levels of military spending.

    The simultaneous rise of multiple power centres was already challenging the Pax Americana. Now, a new international order appears to be a certainty, with Trump openly adapting to multipolarity. Several major powers now compete for global influence, rather than any one country dominating.

    China’s preference for a multipolar international order is shared by India and Russia. Without one dominant entity, it will be the political and social basis of this order, as determined by its major actors, that matters most – not who leads it.

    Pax Democratica

    The current (now waning) international order has been underpinned by specific social, political and economic values stemming from the national identity and historical experience of the US.

    According to US political expert G. John Ikenberry, former president Woodrow Wilson’s agenda for peace after the first world war sought to “reflect distinctive American ideas and ideals”.

    Woodrow imagined an order based on collective security and shared sovereignty, liberal principles of democracy and universal human rights, free trade and international law.

    As its dominance and military strength increased in the 20th century, the US also provided security to other countries. Such power enabled Washington to create open global trade markets, as well as build core global institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, United Nations and NATO.

    For Ikenberry, this Pax Americana (we might call it a Pax Democratica) rested on consent to the US’s “provision of security, wealth creation, and social advancement”. This was aided by the its more than 800 military bases in over 80 countries.

    The democratic deficit

    Trump undercuts the central tenets of this liberal world order and accelerates a slide towards authoritarianism. Like Russia, India and China, the US is also actively constraining human rights, attacking minorities and weakening its electoral system.

    This democratic retreat leaves a country such as New Zealand in a global minority. If Trump targets the region or country with economic tariffs, that precariousness might increase.

    On the other hand, previous world orders have not been truly hegemonic. Pax Britannica did not encompass the entire world. Nor did Pax Americana, which didn’t include China, India, the former Soviet bloc, much of the Islamic world and many developing countries.

    This suggests pockets of democracy can survive within a Pax Autocratica, especially in a multipolar world which is more tolerant of political independence.

    The Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2023 Democracy Index ranked New Zealand, the Nordic countries, Switzerland, Iceland and Ireland highest because their citizens

    choose their political leaders in free and fair elections, enjoy civil liberties, prefer democracy over other political systems, can and do participate in politics, and have a functioning government that acts on their behalf.

    It is these countries that can be at the vanguard of democratic resilience.

    Chris Ogden is a Senior Research Fellow with The Foreign Policy Centre, London.

    – ref. As Trump abandons the old world order, NZ must find its place in a new ‘Pax Autocratica’ – https://theconversation.com/as-trump-abandons-the-old-world-order-nz-must-find-its-place-in-a-new-pax-autocratica-249358

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: China: Cook Islands’ relationship with Beijing ‘should not be restrained’

    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist

    China and the Cook Islands’ relationship “should not be disrupted or restrained by any third party”, says Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, as opposition leaders in Rarotonga express a loss of confidence in Prime Minister Mark Brown.

    In response to questions from the Associated Press about New Zealand government’s concerns regarding Brown’s visit to Beijing this week, Guo said Cook Islands was an important partner of China in the South Pacific.

    “Since establishing diplomatic relations in 1997, our two countries have respected each other, treated each other as equals, and sought common development, achieving fruitful outcomes in exchanges and cooperation in various areas,” he said.

    “China stands ready to work with the Cook Islands for new progress in bilateral relations.”

    Guo said China viewed both New Zealand and the Cook Islands as important cooperation partners.

    “China stands ready to grow ties and carry out cooperation with Pacific Island countries, including the Cook Islands,” he said.

    “The relationship between China and the Cook Islands does not target any third party, and should not be disrupted or restrained by any third party.”

    Information ‘in due course’
    Guo added that Beijing would release information about the visit and the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement “in due course”.

    Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun . . . “China stands ready to grow ties and carry out cooperation with Pacific Island countries.” Image: China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/RNZ

    However, Cook Islanders, as well as the New Zealand government, have been left frustrated with the lack of clarity over what is in the deal which is expected to be penned this week.

    United Party leader Teariki Heather is planning a protest on February 17 against Brown’s leadership.

    He previously told RNZ that it seemed like Brown was “dictating to the people of the Cook Islands, that I’m the leader of this country and I do whatever I like”.

    Another opposition MP with the Democratic Party, Tina Browne, is planning to attend the protest.

    She said Brown “doesn’t understand the word transparent”.

    “He is saying once we sign up we’ll provide copies [of the deal],” Browne said.

    “Well, what’s the point? The agreement has been signed by the government so what’s the point in providing copies.

    “If there is anything in the agreement that people do not agree with, what do we do then?”

    Repeated attempts by Peters
    New Zealand’s Foreign Affairs office said Winston Peters had made repeated attempts for the government of the Cook Islands to share the details of the proposed agreement, which they had not done.

    Peters’ spokesperson, like Browne, said consultation was only meaningful if it happened before an agreement was reached, not after.

    “We therefore view the Cook Islands as having failed to properly consult New Zealand with respect to any agreements it plans to sign this coming week in China,” the spokesperson said.

    Prime Minister Brown told RNZ Pacific that he did not think New Zealand needed to see the level of detail they are after, despite being a constitutional partner.

    Ocean Ancestors, an ocean advocacy group, said Brown’s decision had taken people by surprise, despite the Cook Islands having had a long-term relationship with the Asia superpower.

    “We are in the dark about what could be signed and so for us our concerns are that we are committing ourselves to something that could be very long term and it’s an agreement that we haven’t had consensus over,” the organisation’s spokesperson Louisa Castledine said.

    The details that Brown has shared are that he would be seeking areas of cooperation, including help with a new inter-island vessel to replace the existing ageing ship and for controversial deep-sea mining research.

    Castledine hopes that no promises have been made to China regarding seabed minerals.

    “As far as we are concerned, we have not completed our research phase and we are still yet to make an informed decision about how we progress [on deep-sea mining],” she said.

    “I would like to think that deep-sea mining is not a point of discussion, even though I am not delusional to the idea that it would be very attractive to any agreement.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is Steve Smith set to become the best? What data says about Test cricket’s elite 10,000+ run club

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ronnie Das, Associate Professor in Data Analytics, The University of Western Australia

    In the recent Border-Gavaskar series against India, Steve Smith agonisingly missed out reaching 10,000 Test runs in front of his home crowd at the Sydney Cricket Ground, falling short by just one run.

    However he entered the “10K club” in style after hitting his 35th century against Sri Lanka in the series won by Australia, 2-0.

    Smith is now the 15th batsman to join the exclusive club and the fourth Australian to do so, after Allan Border, Steve Waugh and Ricky Ponting.

    The illustrious group of players who have reached 10,000 is headed by Indian legend Sachin Tendulkar (15,921 runs) with Ponting (13,378) second and South African Jacques Kallis (13,289) third.

    Among this group, Tendulkar, the West Indies’ Brian Lara and Sri Lanka’s Kumar Sangakkara were fastest to 10,000 in terms of innings batted (195), just ahead of Ponting (196). Smith was fifth fastest (205 innings).

    But where does Smith sit among this group of truly elite batsmen? How does he compare to his fellow Australians? And can he eventually reach the pinnacle and overtake Tendulkar at the top of the mountain?

    The challenges of modern cricket

    Modern day cricket is physically, emotionally and psychologically demanding.

    The physical demands, coupled with fixture congestion, make it tough on athletes’ bodies. Research also suggests psychological pressures have a heightened impact on players’ thinking, feeling and overall performances.

    The evolution of lucrative Twenty20 games has also meant cricketers often play in these shorter-format leagues instead of resting between Test series.

    Smith is one of many elite cricketers still playing all three formats of the sport.

    While some batsmen continue to score well into their late 30s, more often than not performance declines in these twilight years of a batter’s career.

    Smith turns 36 in June.

    Judging the best

    The 10,000 run club is the hallmark of batting excellence in Test cricket.

    It is regarded as the pinnacle of a batsman’s career achievement.

    Together (at the time of writing) the players in the 10K club have scored 181,947 runs, with 541 centuries and 818 half centuries.

    The highest individual score belongs to Lara, who scored 400 (not out) against England in 2004.

    Lara also maintained a very high strike rate (60.51) throughout his career.

    A strike rate is a batsman’s run scoring efficiency per 100 balls – the higher the strike rate, the faster the batter scores. A higher strike rate puts more pressure on opposition bowlers and when a batter scores quickly, it allows more time for their team’s bowlers to take the 20 wickets required for a Test victory.

    Only Ponting (a strike rate of 58.72 per 100 balls) closely matches Lara’s calibre, but England’s Joe Root (57.47) is enjoying a late-career renaissance and is closing the gap.

    Compare that to the Border and Sunil Gavaskar era (late 1970s–early 1990s) when runs were not as easy to come by – these two ended their career with low (41.09 and 43.35 respectively) strike rates.

    What about Smith?

    In his second match, his strike rate was an exceptionally high 75.75 but, since then it has dipped to 53.58 as Smith has become a more balanced batsman.

    Another way to judge a batter’s impact is their centuries per innings rate.

    Smith has the highest century per innings rate (17.48%) among the 10K club.
    He recently scored his 36th century, matching his modern-day peer, Root. But Root has played 72 additional innings.

    In terms of overall centuries, Tendulkar leads the way having scored a staggering 51 centuries during his Test career (six more than Kallis, in second). However, Tendulkar did it over a mammoth 329 innings – 38 more than anyone else on the list.

    How the Australians compare

    Across generations, the four Australians have shown different styles of play in achieving the landmark.

    Data shows Border was the most consistent player among them, with his average remaining relatively steady through his career, while Waugh improved his performance after a lacklustre start to his career.

    Smith hit his peak at around his 75th match and Ponting around his 115th match, before their run scoring dropped.

    In terms of batting positions, data suggests Smith has scored most of his runs coming in at number four. Border was most dominant coming in at four and five.

    Ponting dominated as a number three batsman, while Waugh was very consistent at number five.

    How far can Smith go?

    Considering Smith’s age (35), current form and the physical demands of modern cricket, our findings suggest it will take him at least another three to four years to surpass Ponting.

    That may be achievable but Smith’s year-long ban after the 2018 “sandpapergate saga” makes reaching Tendulkar’s mark extremely unlikely.

    However, there is a chance Smith ends up with the best average in the club.

    His batting average currently sits at 56.74, with only Sangakkara (57.4) higher.

    Considering his current form, with four centuries in his past five Test matches, there’s every chance this modern-day great retires atop the tree in that metric at least.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is Steve Smith set to become the best? What data says about Test cricket’s elite 10,000+ run club – https://theconversation.com/is-steve-smith-set-to-become-the-best-what-data-says-about-test-crickets-elite-10-000-run-club-248891

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As Trump abandons the old world order, NZ must find its place in a new ‘Pax Autocratica’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Ogden, Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Donald Trump is moving rapidly to change the contours of contemporary international affairs, with the old US-dominated world order breaking down into a multipolar one with many centres of power.

    The shift already includes the US leaving the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accords, questioning the value of the United Nations, and radical cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

    Such a new geopolitical age also involves an assertion of raw power, with Trump using the threat of tariffs to assert global authority and negotiating positions.

    While the US is not significantly less powerful, this new era may see it wield that power in more openly self-interested and isolationist ways. As new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio put it in January, “the post-war global order is not just obsolete – it is now a weapon being used against us”.

    With global democracy in retreat, the emerging international order looks to be moving in an authoritarian direction. As it does, the position of New Zealand’s vibrant democracy will come under mounting pressure.

    But world orders have come and gone for millennia, reflecting the ebb and flow of global economic, political and military power. Looking back to previous eras, and how countries and cultures responded to shifting geopolitical realities, can help us understand what is happening more clearly.

    An evolving world order

    Previous orders have often focused on specific centres – or “poles” – of power. These include the Concert of Europe from 1814 to 1914, the bipolar world of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, and the unipolar world of American dominance after the end of the Cold War and since the September 11 attacks in 2001.

    Periods of single-power dominance (or hegemony) are referred to as a “pax”, from the Latin for “peace”. We have seen the Pax Romana of the Roman Empire (27 BCE to 180 AD), multiple Pax Sinicas around China (most recently the Qing Dynasty 1644 to 1912), Pax Mongolica (the Mongol Empire from 1271 to 1368) and Pax Britannica (the British Empire from 1815 to 1924).

    It is the Pax Americana of the US, from 1945 to the present, that Trump seems bent on dismantling. We now live in an international order that is visibly in flux. With autocracy on the rise and the US at is vanguard, a “Pax Autocratica” is emerging.

    This is accentuated by the rapid rise of Asia as the main sphere of economic and military growth, particularly China and India. The world’s two most populous countries had the world’s largest and third largest economies respectively in 2023, and the second and fourth highest levels of military spending.

    The simultaneous rise of multiple power centres was already challenging the Pax Americana. Now, a new international order appears to be a certainty, with Trump openly adapting to multipolarity. Several major powers now compete for global influence, rather than any one country dominating.

    China’s preference for a multipolar international order is shared by India and Russia. Without one dominant entity, it will be the political and social basis of this order, as determined by its major actors, that matters most – not who leads it.

    Pax Democratica

    The current (now waning) international order has been underpinned by specific social, political and economic values stemming from the national identity and historical experience of the US.

    According to US political expert G. John Ikenberry, former president Woodrow Wilson’s agenda for peace after the first world war sought to “reflect distinctive American ideas and ideals”.

    Woodrow imagined an order based on collective security and shared sovereignty, liberal principles of democracy and universal human rights, free trade and international law.

    As its dominance and military strength increased in the 20th century, the US also provided security to other countries. Such power enabled Washington to create open global trade markets, as well as build core global institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, United Nations and NATO.

    For Ikenberry, this Pax Americana (we might call it a Pax Democratica) rested on consent to the US’s “provision of security, wealth creation, and social advancement”. This was aided by the its more than 800 military bases in over 80 countries.

    The democratic deficit

    Trump undercuts the central tenets of this liberal world order and accelerates a slide towards authoritarianism. Like Russia, India and China, the US is also actively constraining human rights, attacking minorities and weakening its electoral system.

    This democratic retreat leaves a country such as New Zealand in a global minority. If Trump targets the region or country with economic tariffs, that precariousness might increase.

    On the other hand, previous world orders have not been truly hegemonic. Pax Britannica did not encompass the entire world. Nor did Pax Americana, which didn’t include China, India, the former Soviet bloc, much of the Islamic world and many developing countries.

    This suggests pockets of democracy can survive within a Pax Autocratica, especially in a multipolar world which is more tolerant of political independence.

    The Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2023 Democracy Index ranked New Zealand, the Nordic countries, Switzerland, Iceland and Ireland highest because their citizens

    choose their political leaders in free and fair elections, enjoy civil liberties, prefer democracy over other political systems, can and do participate in politics, and have a functioning government that acts on their behalf.

    It is these countries that can be at the vanguard of democratic resilience.

    Chris Ogden is a Senior Research Fellow with The Foreign Policy Centre, London.

    – ref. As Trump abandons the old world order, NZ must find its place in a new ‘Pax Autocratica’ – https://theconversation.com/as-trump-abandons-the-old-world-order-nz-must-find-its-place-in-a-new-pax-autocratica-249358

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why so many Latino voters supported Donald Trump

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Julia Young, Associate Professor, History, Catholic University of America

    For many observers of the 2024 US presidential election, Donald Trump’s ability to harness so much of the Latino vote remains one of the more puzzling issues. Latino voters – men in particular – swung decisively towards Trump last November: increasing by 16 points from 2016 to 42% of the bloc in 2024.

    This despite Trump’s consistent history of antagonistic remarks about Latino immigrants. It also appears to fly in the face of the fact that his policies on tariffs, border militarisation and mass deportations will likely affect Mexico, Panama and several other Latin American countries.

    Clearly, Latinos swung towards Trump for the same reason many other voters did. Many were unhappy with the economy (particularly inflation). There was also widespread anxiety about a marked increase in immigration at the southern border.

    But there are more profound reasons driving the dramatic shift in the Latino vote. A closer look at some of the historical dynamics that have shaped the Latino electorate gives a clue for the reason behind this seeming paradox.

    The Latino vote comprises about 14.7% of all eligible US voters. Yet it is far from a monolith. It is a heterogeneous group of people who trace their roots to Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico and the rest of the 21 Spanish-speaking countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Each of these countries has a different political landscape. They are made up of vastly different people with a different background and distinct cultures. And these differences shape disparate Latino identities in the United States. The term “Latino” itself is a blanket term. It can include extremely different populations: Afro-Dominicans in the Bronx, white Cubans in Miami, indigenous Mexicans in Los Angeles, mestizo Salvadorans in Washington DC and a vast array of others.

    Even within these national groups, there are also significant divisions. Partly, this is based on a person’s time of arrival in the US. Mexican-Americans whose families immigrated to California from border cities like Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez in the early 1940s as seasonal (and legal) agricultural workers will have different experiences and priorities than Mexicans who arrived more recently from the southern states of Chiapas and Oaxaca and settled in New York City without any legal pathway to citizenship. Meanwhile, Nicaraguan-American families who arrived in Miami in the 1980s fleeing the Sandinista revolution will have a different economic outlook from those escaping Daniel Ortega’s current dictatorship.

    There’s no such thing as a generic “Latino” voter. The Latino population in the US needs to be understood as a heterogeneous one, made up of people with different experiences, priorities and preferences.

    Latino conservatism

    For many decades, Latinos were reliable Democratic voters – and many pundits predicted that they would stay that way, tipping the political scales decisively away from the Republican Party. But there has always been a strong strain of Latino conservatives voting Republican.

    Religion plays a key role here. The majority of people of Latino heritage are Catholic. But there is a growing population of Evangelicals and other Christian denominations, reflecting a growth of those groups in some Latin American countries.

    In El Salvador, for example, the rise of Evangelical religions has produced an increasingly culturally conservative population, who support the “mano dura” (strong hand) policies of Nayib Bukele. A similar trend can be found among Latino communities in the US, where Latino Evangelicals strongly supported Trump in 2024.

    The political history of many Latin American countries is a clue to the make-up for migrants to the US. Mexico’s Cristero War in the 1920s prompted thousands of Catholics to flee the country’s anti-clerical government by migrating northwards. Three decades later, the Cuban revolution of 1959 produced large refugee flows of conservative and anticommunist migrants. These exiled groups – most notably, Cubans in South Florida – would ally with Republicans based on their punitive policies towards Cuba. This has helped turn Florida into a Republican stronghold.

    More recently, 7 million Venezuelans fled the left-wing government of Nicolás Maduro. This has led to a more general antipathy among many Latino voters towards left-wing politics and politicians. Trump’s condemnation of Maduro and Venezuela has endeared him to politically conservative Latino voters of all national backgrounds.

    Race, class, and immigration

    Interestingly, it was also clear that some Latino voters are suspicious and resentful of newer waves of migrants, particularly recent asylum-seekers from Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.

    This dynamic between earlier arrivals and new immigrants is nothing new in the US. Earlier waves of immigrants and their descendants, such as Irish or Italian immigrants, also adopted nativist attitudes towards newer arrivals. In some ways, each generation of immigrants has tried to “pull up the bridge” to the generation that comes after them.

    Yet these negative reactions also relate to racial and class hierarchies both within and between Latin American countries. Like the US, Latin American countries have a long history of racism and colour discrimination, as well as deep class divides and very high rates of income inequality.

    New immigrants who have arrived in recent years from places such as Venezuela, Honduras, Cuba and Nicaragua are poorer than earlier generations of immigrants – and often have darker skin. As a result, cultural divides may impede a strong sense of solidarity between earlier generations of Latino immigrants and recent arrivals.

    This is not to suggest that racism and classism are the dominant drivers behind Latino support for Trump. But it may help explain why Trump’s campaign comments about recent Latino immigrants were not a dealbreaker for every Latino voter.

    Ultimately, the Latino Trump supporter may not represent such a paradox after all. The so-called “Latino voter” is really a multiethnic, diverse bloc of people. While they share common linguistic and cultural features, Latinos are also motivated by a wide variety of religious, political and cultural factors that can be traced back to their own or their families’ experiences in Latin America.

    The Latino vote is complex. Politicians who want to win their support would do well to understand how these complicated identities inform their political decisions and allegiances. It appears at the moment the Republicans are doing this better than their Democratic rivals.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why so many Latino voters supported Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/why-so-many-latino-voters-supported-donald-trump-248806

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Earth is already shooting through the 1.5°C global warming limit, two major studies show

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, Associate Professor in Climate Science, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, The University of Melbourne

    Earth is crossing the threshold of 1.5°C of global warming, according to two major global studies which together suggest the planet’s climate has likely entered a frightening new phase.

    Under the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, humanity is seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep planetary heating to no more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. In 2024, temperatures on Earth surpassed that limit.

    This was not enough to declare the Paris threshold had been crossed, because the temperature goals under the agreement are measured over several decades, rather than short excursions over the 1.5°C mark.

    But the two papers just released use a different measure. Both examined historical climate data to determine whether very hot years in the recent past were a sign that a future, long-term warming threshold would be breached.

    The answer, alarmingly, was yes. The researchers say the record-hot 2024 indicates Earth is passing the 1.5°C limit, beyond which scientists predict catastrophic harm to the natural systems that support life on Earth.

    2024: the first year of many above 1.5°C

    Climate organisations around the world agree last year was the hottest on record. The global average temperature in 2024 was about 1.6°C above the average temperatures in the late-19th century, before humans started burning fossil fuels at large scale.

    Earth has also recently experienced individual days and months above the 1.5°C warming mark.

    But the global temperature varies from one year to the next. For example, the 2024 temperature spike, while in large part due to climate change, was also driven by a natural El Niño pattern early in the year. That pattern has dissipated for now, and 2025 is forecast to be a little cooler.

    These year-to-year fluctuations mean climate scientists don’t view a single year exceeding the 1.5°C mark as a failure to meet the Paris Agreement.

    However, the new studies published today in Nature Climate Change suggest even a single month or year at 1.5°C global warming may signify Earth is entering a long-term breach of that vital threshold.

    What the studies found

    The studies were conducted independently by researchers in Europe and Canada. They tackled the same basic question: is a year above 1.5°C global warming a warning sign that we’re already crossing the Paris Agreement threshold?

    Both studies used observations and climate model simulations to address this question, with slightly different approaches.

    In the European paper, the researchers looked at historical warming trends. They found when Earth’s average temperature reached a certain threshold, the following 20-year period also reached that threshold.

    This pattern suggests that, given Earth reached 1.5°C warming last year, we may have entered a 20-year warming period when average temperatures will also reach 1.5°C.

    The Canadian paper involved month-to-month data. June last year was the 12th consecutive month of temperatures above the 1.5°C warming level. The researcher found 12 consecutive months above a climate threshold indicates the threshold will be reached over the long term.

    Both studies also demonstrate that even if stringent emissions reduction begins now, Earth is still likely to be crossing the 1.5°C threshold.

    Heading in the wrong direction

    Given these findings, what humanity does next is crucial.

    For decades, climate scientists have warned burning fossil fuels for energy releases carbon dioxide and other gases that are warming the planet.

    But humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase. Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its first report in 1990, the world’s annual carbon dioxide emissions have risen about 50%.

    Put simply, we are not even moving in the right direction, let alone at the required pace.

    The science shows greenhouse gas emissions must reach net-zero to end global warming. Even then, some aspects of the climate will continue to change for many centuries, because some regional warming, especially in the oceans, is already locked in and irreversible.

    If Earth has indeed already crossed the 1.5°C mark, and humanity wants to get below the threshold again, we will need to cool the planet by reaching “net-negative emissions” – removing more greenhouse gases from the atmosphere than we emit. This would be a highly challenging task.

    Feeling the heat

    The damaging effects of climate change are already being felt across the globe. The harm will be even worse for future generations.

    Australia has already experienced 1.5°C of warming, on average, since 1910.

    Our unique ecosystems, such as the Great Barrier Reef, are already suffering because of this warming. Our oceans are hotter and seas are rising, hammering our coastlines and threatening marine life.

    Bushfires and extreme weather, especially heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and severe. This puts pressure on nature, society and our economy.

    But amid the gloom, there are signs of progress.

    Across the world, renewable electricity generation is growing. Fossil fuel use has dropped in many countries. Technological developments are slowing emissions growth in polluting industries such as aviation and construction.

    But clearly, there is much more work to be done.

    Humanity can turn the tide

    These studies are a sobering reminder of how far short humanity is falling in tackling climate change.

    They show we must urgently adapt to further global warming. Among the suite of changes needed, richer nations must support the poorer countries set to bear the most severe climate harms. While some progress has been made in this regard, far more is needed.

    A major shift is also needed to decarbonise our societies and economies. There is still room for hope, but we must not delay action. Otherwise, humanity will keep warming the planet and causing further damage.

    Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the National Environmental Science Program.

    Liam Cassidy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Earth is already shooting through the 1.5°C global warming limit, two major studies show – https://theconversation.com/earth-is-already-shooting-through-the-1-5-c-global-warming-limit-two-major-studies-show-249133

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Nature and shops: here’s what people told us they want most from urban planning

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Iain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

    Getty Images

    Urban planning has a long history of promoting visionary ideas that advocate for particular futures. The most recent is the concept of the 15-minute city, which has gained traction globally.

    But empirical evidence on public preference for what people want is surprisingly thin on the ground.

    To help address this gap, we conducted a national survey (1,491 responses) in Aotearoa New Zealand to find out what amenities people want to have easy access to, how much time they prefer to spend getting there, and how this differs between different groups in the population.

    Our recently published research provides more depth. The headline messages have significant implications for politicians, policy-makers and others interested in planning cities to better meet the needs of citizens.

    People want green space and local shops

    The first message is that visions such as 15-minute cities tend to promote the idea of livability connected to easy access to multiple amenities – from education to employment and culture.

    However, when we asked what amenities people prefer the most, two things came out far above others: local nature and local shops.

    This finding is important as it allows cash-strapped local authorities to prioritise and sequence spending. It also supports the agenda of those who are advocating for an increase in urban green space or local living.

    A complete shift to a 15-minute city can be daunting, but investment in these two specific areas could be an excellent first step in improving livability in a way that reflects what citizens want from planning.

    We also asked people for their preferred maximum travel time to their most preferred amenity for a one-way trip, using different modes. Nationally, the data were consistent, identifying around 20 minutes as a good rule of thumb for maximum preferred travel time.

    Importantly, this time was broadly similar regardless of the transport mode chosen. Whether walking, cycling or travelling by micro-mobility modes such as e-scooters, people wanted to spend no more than 20  minutes doing so – even though the distances vary.

    It is important to acknowledge this time is a maximum, not a preference. It is better understood as a threshold or decision point after which people are much more likely to drive or choose not to travel.

    This evidence has a wider resonance.

    First, it strongly reinforces the 15-minute city or 20-minute neighbourhood as accurately reflecting public preferences for travel time to reach destinations, especially as this figure was consistent regardless of the travel mode.

    Second, people are willing to walk further than we typically plan for.

    For example, planners may typically apply a walkable catchment of an 800-metre radius around the central business district or transit nodes to allow for higher-density zoning. This distance is a walk of about ten minutes. Our data suggest this area could be expanded and more opportunities created to increase housing volume and diversity.

    One size does not fit all

    One crucial aspect for improving livability is recognising differences in people’s ability or willingness to walk, cycle or use micro mobility. To explore this, our survey asked people how comfortable they were using each active travel mode after dark.

    We reveal a strong gender difference. For example, 41% of people said they were uncomfortable walking after dark. Of this group, 86% were female.

    For all travel modes, there was a similar story with females more likely to change travel behaviour, mostly due to safety concerns. The survey also revealed that people with a disability are significantly less comfortable travelling after dark than those without.

    This finding is useful for those concerned with equity. Citizen movement is typically modelled on the idea of an able-bodied person who feels equally comfortable in all urban spaces at all times of day or night.

    Without considering difference across populations, advocates may promote an equitable 15-minute city during the day and an inequitable car-dependent one after dark.

    This also highlights that any new urban strategy or investment needs to understand existing behaviour and the risks of making current disadvantages worse.

    Agendas such as 15-minute cities hold significant value in planning for wellbeing and health, economic activity or decarbonisation. They also hold potential for planners to engage with communities to explain the value of planning, the kind of lifestyle citizens can expect in the future, and why authorities are spending public money.

    But urban researchers also need urban concepts to be grounded in evidence to avoid becoming the next urban imaginary accused of failing to be transformative.

    Our research helps provide some clarity. The general message is that people want easy access to green spaces and local shops more than anything else and they want to spend no more than 20 minutes getting there.

    It also highlights context and differences between groups. We need to marry promising urban concepts to empirical research designed to support people’s preferences and encourage movement and equity.

    Iain White receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund and from the Natural Hazards Commission. He is New Zealand’s national contact point for the Horizon Europe program for the climate, energy and mobility research cluster.

    Silvia Serrao-Neumann receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund and from the Natural Hazards Commission.

    Xinyu Fu receives funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s Endeavour Fund and from the Natural Hazards Commission.

    – ref. Nature and shops: here’s what people told us they want most from urban planning – https://theconversation.com/nature-and-shops-heres-what-people-told-us-they-want-most-from-urban-planning-247994

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –