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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: DeepSeek: why the hot new Chinese AI chatbot has big privacy and security problems

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohiuddin Ahmed, Senior Lecturer of Computing and Security, Edith Cowan University

    The Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company DeepSeek has rattled the tech industry with the release of free, cheaply made AI models that compete with the best US products such as ChatGPT.

    Users are rushing to check out the new chatbot, sending DeepSeek’s AI Assistant to the top of the iPhone and Android app charts in many countries.

    However, authorities have sounded a note of caution. US officials are examining the app’s “national security implications”. Australia’s former cybersecurity minister said national security agencies will soon issue formal guidance for users.

    Why are governments and security experts so concerned? The main issue is the app is made in China and stores data there – but that doesn’t mean all the worry is just xenophobia.

    What information does DeepSeek record?

    DeepSeek does not appear to be spyware, in the sense it doesn’t seem to be collecting data without your consent. However, like many online services, it clearly tells you it will record a lot of data about you and your behaviour.

    Specifically, the company’s privacy policy says it collects three categories of information.

    First, there is information you provide directly, such as your name and email address and any text you type in or files you upload.

    Next, there is automatically collected information, such as what kind of device you are using, your IP address, details of how you use the services, cookies, and payment information.

    Finally, there is information from other sources, such as Apple or Google login services, or third-party advertising and analytics companies.

    This is broadly similar to the data collected by ChatGPT and Claude.

    What does DeepSeek do with the information?

    DeepSeek says it uses this information for a range of purposes: to provide services, enforce terms of use, communicate with users, and review and improve performance.

    The policy also contains a rather sweeping clause saying the company may use the information to “comply with our legal obligations, or as necessary to perform tasks in the public interest, or to protect the vital interests of our users and other people”.

    DeepSeek also says it may share this information with third parties, including advertising and analytics companies as well as “law enforcement agencies, public authorities, copyright holders, or other third parties”.

    DeepSeek will also keep the information “for as long as necessary” for a broad range of purposes.

    Again, this is all fairly standard practice for modern online services.

    Causes for concern

    Much of the cause for concern around DeepSeek comes from the fact the company is based in China, vulnerable to Chinese cyber criminals and subject to Chinese law.

    DeepSeek stores the information it collects “in secure servers located in the People’s Republic of China”. The company says it maintains “commercially reasonable technical, administrative, and physical security measures” to protect the information.

    However, we should keep in mind that China is one of the most cyber crime-prone countries in the world – ranking third behind Russia and Ukraine in a 2024 study.

    So even if DeepSeek does not intentionally disclose information, there is still a considerable risk it will be accessed by nefarious actors.

    China is home to a sophisticated ecosystem of cyber crime organisations that often build detailed profiles of potential targets. Microsoft and others have accused the Chinese government of collaborating with cybercrime networks on cybercrime attacks.

    These organisations can use personal information to craft convincing targeted phishing attacks, which try to trick people into revealing more sensitive information such as bank details.

    Should you download DeepSeek?

    So, should you download DeepSeek?

    If you are an experienced user who is familiar with online privacy and the capabilities of modern AI systems, go ahead – but proceed with caution and be very wary about what information you share.

    And if you’re less experienced – if you’re a casual user who is less internet-savvy – my expert advice is to stay well away. DeepSeek won’t give you much you can’t get from other chatbots such as ChatGPT or Claude, and it might make your data vulnerable to Chinese cyber criminals and subject to Chinese law.

    DeepSeek also raises questions for governments. Efforts to prevent scams and cybercrime often focus on banks, telecommunications companies, and social media platforms – but what about chatbots?

    Mohiuddin Ahmed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. DeepSeek: why the hot new Chinese AI chatbot has big privacy and security problems – https://theconversation.com/deepseek-why-the-hot-new-chinese-ai-chatbot-has-big-privacy-and-security-problems-248544

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: DeepSeek’s success challenges assumptions about Chinese tech companies – and the US-China competition

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wanning Sun, Professor of Media and Cultural Studies, University of Technology Sydney

    The release of the new DeepSeek-R1 artificial intelligence (AI) model has shocked the tech world.

    Launched on January 20 with little fanfare, the Chinese AI model was reportedly developed at only a fraction of the cost of OpenAI’s GPT-4o, and over a much shorter period of time. One Chinese commentator has called its release a “Pearl Harbor attack” on the AI world.

    Though the reference to an “attack” may be a strong word, it alludes to the growing competition between the United States and China over dominance in the AI sphere, which the US had been leading thus far.

    Indeed, people across China were celebrating a homegrown success story on Wednesday, as DeepSeek’s AI app soared to the top of the Apple and Google stores in the US.

    So, what does the emergence of DeepSeek’s model say about US-China competition in this space?

    Chinese government control

    First, DeepSeek’s success is undoubtedly sending a message to the Chinese government that excessive control kills innovation.

    Until mid-2023, enthusiasm for innovation in China’s tech companies had been stifled by increasingly restrictive regulations. The Chinese government had embarked on a sweeping crackdown of tech companies like Alibaba and others in order to prevent the spread of rampant entrepreneurial capitalism in China.

    The launch of ChatGPT in 2023 promised to open up exciting new frontiers for the development of AI in the West. But it must have come as a rude shock to China’s tech companies. The Chinese government changed tact and reassured them that it recognised the crucial role of the digital economy as a key driver of economic growth. It soon began to relax its tight grip over the sector.

    But the elephant in the room is how DeepSeek – and China’s AI companies in general – will deal with censorship.

    As it stands, politically sensitive words and questions seem to be no-go areas for DeepSeek. When asked what happened on June 4 1989 in Tiananmen Square (the site of the government’s crackdown on democracy protesters), the chatbot’s answer was along the lines of, “Sorry, that’s beyond my current scope. Let’s talk about something else.”

    This raises the question: can a Chinese AI tool be truly competitive in the global tech race without a solution to the challenge of censorship?

    US efforts to contain Chinese tech development

    Meanwhile, the US has adopted a wide array of measures aiming at curbing China’s AI development over the past few years. These included the Biden administration’s attempts to restrict China’s access to the advanced chips needed for AI, as well as the export of chip-making equipment and other technology to China.

    The US has also blacklisted a large number of Chinese entities that it has identified as having both military and commercial technology.

    The launch of DeepSeek raises questions over the effectiveness of these US attempts to “de-risk” from China in relation to scientific and academic collaboration.

    For one, DeepSeek was able to evade US restrictions on advanced chips by stockpiling downgraded chips made by Nvidia before the Biden administration moved to ban them.

    Western observers have often portrayed China’s AI initiatives as limited due to these US controls. However, these observers have somehow failed to take seriously the emergence of a new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs who prioritise foundational research and long-term technological advancement over quick profits.

    DeepSeek is a good example of this approach. It has embraced open-source methods, pooling collective expertise and fostering collaborative innovation. This approach not only mitigates resource constraints, but also accelerates the development of cutting-edge technologies.

    Another common assumption in the West is that Chinese companies are mere followers or imitators. DeepSeek’s achievements likewise challenge this perception. As the company’s chief executive, Liang Wenfeng, said to one Chinese media outlet:

    Innovation such as ours happens all the time in the US. The Americans are surprised by us, mainly because we are a Chinese company, and we are entering their game as an innovator with original contribution, not as followers.

    DeepSeek’s success also calls into question the legislation supported by both the Biden and Trump administrations that aims to prevent Chinese graduate students from attending universities in the US.

    The assumption behind what researchers call “STEM talent de-coupling” is that the Chinese government may use some of these students to engage in knowledge and technology transfer when they return to China.

    Liang, however, never studied outside China. And he recruited graduates and students from top Chinese universities to staff his research team. None studied overseas.

    These developers belong to a generation of young, patriotic Chinese who harbour personal ambition, as well as a broader commitment to advancing China’s position as a global innovation leader.

    What does this mean for Australia?

    In Australia, the initial reaction to DeepSeek’s AI chatbot has been one of
    caution, even concern. Clare O’Neil, the former cyber security minister, said the government would examine more closely how the app works before providing guidance to Australians on potential data security concerns.

    But DeepSeek may also be a reminder that Australia’s scientific collaborations should be guided primarily by research excellence rather than geopolitical considerations. To stay competitive and reduce its reliance on external technology providers, Australia needs to invest in its own AI research infrastructure and build its own talent pool.

    A narrow focus on political alignments and a growing paranoia about partnering with Chinese researchers means that Australia risks missing out on the next wave of breakthrough technologies.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. DeepSeek’s success challenges assumptions about Chinese tech companies – and the US-China competition – https://theconversation.com/deepseeks-success-challenges-assumptions-about-chinese-tech-companies-and-the-us-china-competition-248531

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: After fleeing the Taliban, the Afghan women’s cricket team is finally playing together – in Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Ordway, Associate Professor Sport Management and Sport Integrity Lead, University of Canberra

    Women cheer and wave the Afghanistan flag during a cricket game in 2023 Vector and photos/Shutterstock

    A Twenty20 cricket contest featuring a women’s team made up of refugees from Afghanistan who now live in Australia may “only” be an exhibition game, but it could be the beginning of something much more.

    On Thursday, an Afghan women’s cricket team will take on a Cricket Without Borders XI at Melbourne’s Junction Oval.

    It is the first time the women will play as a team since migrating to Australia after the Taliban takeover in 2021. The group has since settled in Canberra and Melbourne.

    Regardless of the result, it could be a step towards Afghanistan’s women’s team entering international cricket.

    Before I explain why, though, it’s important to rewind a bit.

    International cricket and Afghanistan

    The International Cricket Council (ICC) claims it has “one of the toughest” policies on anti-discrimination in world sport.

    The governing body commits to:

    promote and encourage participation at all levels regardless of race, colour, religion, descent, culture, ethnic origin, nationality, sex, gender, sexual orientation, disability, marital status and/or maternity status and to ensure that there is no discrimination in the sport.

    In the case of its member federation, the Afghanistan Cricket Board, the ICC’s refusal to uphold its own policy is providing both actual and implied support to the Taliban’s gender apartheid regime.

    The ICC admitted Afghanistan as a full voting member in 2017, despite being “the only full member to have received that status without having an operational women’s team in place.”

    As a full member, Afghanistan was, according to the ICC’s funds disbursement model: “expected to get around $US40 million ($A64 million) for the 2016-23 commercial rights cycle based on projected ICC revenues of $US2.7 billion ($A4.32 billion).”

    Meanwhile, the other ICC, the International Criminal Court, recently issued arrest warrants against two of the Taliban leaders for crimes against women.

    The Taliban’s policies against women go far beyond sport and make it more reason for the International Cricket Council to act.

    On any reading, the ICC’s membership rules on governance ethics requirements in relation to Afghanistan are in breach.

    From Afghanistan to Australia

    Ironically, it was the Afghanistan Cricket Board’s reluctant and token measure taken to build a women’s team, by issuing contracts to 25 women in 2020, that has allowed them to now play cricket in Australia.

    In August 2021, the Taliban took over Afghanistan and banned women’s sports. Athletes were intimidated, harassed and warned of ramifications if they continued playing.

    That situation sparked action from a handful of passionate volunteers, including myself, ex-Australian cricketer Mel Jones, and Emma Staples (formerly the head of diversity and community engagement at Cricket Victoria). We knew we needed to get these women out of Afghanistan.

    We applied to the Australian government to issue emergency humanitarian visas to the contracted women’s cricketers, with the applications granted.

    Now, all they want is a chance to represent their country as a team, and to send a message of hope back to their sisters suffering under the oppression of Afghan gender apartheid.

    Put simply, the Afghan women’s team is desperate to be given the same opportunities as its male counterparts.

    The team has written several times and asked for meetings with the ICC, to no avail.

    The ICC instead has set up an all-male working group on Afghanistan.

    It’s not clear what its terms of reference are, or if they have even met.

    Possible solutions

    Cricket Australia has chosen not to play bilateral matches against Afghanistan, citing the Taliban’s human rights restrictions for women and girls since returning to power.

    But boycotts often impact athletes more than government policies.

    Instead, the focus should be on supporting Afghan women who want to play cricket. The ICC could implement targeted actions including:

    • replacing Afghanistan’s cricket board with ICC-appointed administrators, including women
    • adjusting Afghanistan’s funding to reflect they are only developing cricket for less than half the population
    • setting up a global development fund for Afghan girls and women to identify talent and to provide coaching.

    There are several international sport models – for example, FIFA’s Normalisation Committees and the IOC’s independence requirements – that could serve as models for the ICC requiring Afghanistan’s Cricket Board to comply with the its anti-discrimination policies.

    A chance to compete

    On Thursday, these Afghan women finally get to play as a team, in the exhibition game organised by Cricket Australia.

    The team is keen for this to be an ongoing opportunity to develop skills and represent their nation, not just a one-time event.

    The Olympic movement’s model of refugee teams could inspire the creation of a refugee team for Afghan women in cricket, allowing them to participate in future youth and summer Olympic Games and other competitions.

    Catherine Ordway voluntarily represented the Afghan women’s cricket team to evacuate them to Australia following the Taliban re-occupation in August 2021, and continues to provide ongoing support to the women, the staff and their families.

    – ref. After fleeing the Taliban, the Afghan women’s cricket team is finally playing together – in Australia – https://theconversation.com/after-fleeing-the-taliban-the-afghan-womens-cricket-team-is-finally-playing-together-in-australia-248445

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Global wildlife trade is an enormous market – the US imports billions of animals from nearly 30,000 species

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael Tlusty, Professor of Sustainability and Food Solutions, UMass Boston

    U.S. Fish and Wildlife agents inspect a shipment of reptiles at the Port of Miami. U.S. GAO

    When people think of wildlife trade, they often picture smugglers sneaking in rare and endangered species from far-off countries. Yet most wildlife trade is actually legal, and the United States is one of the world’s biggest wildlife importers.

    New research that we and a team of colleagues published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that, over the last 22 years, people in the U.S. legally imported nearly 2.85 billion individual animals representing almost 30,000 species.

    Some of these wild animals become pets, such as reptiles, spiders, clownfish, chimpanzees and even tigers. Thousands end up in zoos and aquariums, where many species on display come directly from the wild.

    Medical research uses macaque monkeys and imports up to 39,000 of them every year. The fashion trade imports around 1 million to 2 million crocodile skins every year. Hunting trophies are also included in wildlife.

    How many species are legally traded worldwide?
    Benjamin Marshall, et al., 2024, PNAS, CC BY-SA

    The largest number of imported species are birds – 4,985 different species are imported each year, led by Muscovy ducks, with over 6 million imported. Reptiles are next, with 3,048 species, led by iguanas and royal pythons. These largely become pets.

    Not all wildlife are wild

    We found that just over half of the animals imported into the U.S. come from the wild.

    Capturing wildlife to sell to exporters can be an important income source for rural communities around the world, especially in Africa. However, wild imported species can also spread diseases or parasites or become invasive. In fact, these risks are so worrying that many imported animals are classed as “injurious wildlife” due to their potential role in transmitting diseases to native species.

    Captive breeding has played an increasingly dominant role in recent years as a way to limit the impact on wild populations and to try to reduce disease spread.

    However over half the individual animals from most groups of species, such as amphibians or mammals, still come from the wild, and there is no data on the impact of the wildlife trade on most wild populations.

    Trade may pose a particular risk when species are already rare or have small ranges. Where studies have been done, the wild populations of traded species decreased by an average of 62% across the periods monitored.

    Sustainable wildlife trade is possible, but it relies on careful monitoring to balance wild harvest and captive breeding.

    Data is thin in many ways

    For most species in the wildlife trade, there is still a lot that remains unknown, including even the number of species traded.

    With so many species and shipments, wildlife inspectors are overwhelmed. Trade data may not include the full species name for groups like butterflies or fish. The values in many customs databases are reported by companies but never verified.

    Macaques, used in medical research, are the most-traded primates globally, according to an analysis of U.S. Fish and Wildlife data.
    Davidvraju, CC BY-SA

    In our study, we relied on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Law Enforcement Management Information System, a wildlife import-export data collection system. However, few countries collate and release data in such a standardized way; meaning that for the majority of species legally traded around the world there is no available data.

    For example, millions of Tokay geckos are imported as pets and for medicine, and are often reported to be bred in captivity. However, investigators cannot confirm that they weren’t actually caught in the wild.

    Why tracking the wildlife trade is important

    Biodiversity has a great number of economic and ecological benefits. There are also risks to importing wildlife. Understanding the many species and number of animals entering the country, and whether they were once wild or farmed, is important, because imported wildlife can cause health and ecological problems.

    Wildlife can spread diseases to humans and to other animals. Wild-caught monkeys imported for medical research may carry diseases, including ones of particular risk to humans. Those with diseases are more likely to be wild than captive-bred.

    The most-traded mammals worldwide are minks, which are valued for their fur but can spread viruses to humans and other species. About 48 million minks are legally traded annually, about 2.8% wild-caught and the majority raised, according to U.S. Fish and Wildlife data.
    Colin Canterbury/USFWS

    Species that aren’t native to the U.S. may also escape or be released into the wild. Invasive species can cause billions of dollars in damage by consuming and outcompeting native wildlife and spreading diseases.

    We believe better data on the wildlife trade could be used to set management goals, such as harvest quotas or no-take policies for those species in their country of origin.

    What’s next

    The researchers involved in this study come from institutes around the world and are all interested in improving data systems for wildlife trade.

    Some of us focus on how e-commerce platforms such as Etsy and Instagram have become hotspots of wildlife trade and can be challenging to monitor without automation. Esty announced in 2024 that it would remove listings of endangered or threatened species. Others build tools to help wildlife inspectors process the large number of shipments in real time. Many of us examine the problems imported species cause when they become invasive.

    In the age of machine learning, artificial intelligence and big data, it’s possible to better understand the wildlife trade. Consumers can help by buying less, and making informed decisions.

    Michael Tlusty is a founding member of the Wildlife Detection Partnership and co-developed the Nature Intelligence System, which assists governments in collecting more accurate wildlife data..

    Andrew Rhyne is currently on sabbatical funded by the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), focused on the wildlife trade data. He is a founding member of the Wildlife Detection Partnership and co-developed the Nature Intelligence System, which assists governments in collecting more accurate wildlife data.

    Alice Catherine Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Global wildlife trade is an enormous market – the US imports billions of animals from nearly 30,000 species – https://theconversation.com/global-wildlife-trade-is-an-enormous-market-the-us-imports-billions-of-animals-from-nearly-30-000-species-247197

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PSNA’s Minto hits back at Gaza ‘genocide hotline’ critics, insists NZ should deny Israeli soldier visas

    Asia Pacific Report

    A national Palestine advocacy group has hit back at critics of its “genocide hotline” campaign against soldiers involved in Israel’s war against Gaza, saying New Zealand should be actively following international law.

    The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) dismissed a “predictable lineup of apologists for Israel” for their criticisms of the PSNA campaign.

    “Why is concern for the sensitivities of soldiers from a genocidal Israeli campaign more important than condemning the genocide itself?,” asked PSNA national chair John Minto in a statement.

    The Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters, the Chief Human Rights Commissioner Stephen Rainbow and the New Zealand Jewish Council have made statements “protecting” Israeli soldiers who come to New Zealand on “rest and recreation” from the industrial-scale killing of 47,000 Palestinians in Gaza until a truce went into force on January 19.

    “We are not surprised to see such a predictable lineup of apologists for Israel and its genocide in Gaza from lining up to attack a PSNA campaign with false smears of anti-semitism,” Minto said.

    He said that over 16 months Peters had done “absolutely nothing” to put any pressure on Israel to end its genocidal behaviour.

    “But he is full of bluff and bluster and outright lies to denounce those who demand Israel be held to account.”

    Deny illegal settler visas
    Minto said that if Peters was doing his job as Foreign Minister, he would not only stop Israeli soldiers coming to Aotearoa New Zealand — as with Russian soldiers in the Ukraine war — he would also deny visas to any Israeli with an address in an illegal Israeli settlement in the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

    The Human Rights Commission had issued a “disingenuous media release”, he said.

    “Our campaign has nothing to do with Israelis or Jews — it is a campaign to stop Israeli soldiers coming here for rest and recreation after a campaign of wholesale killing of Palestinians in Gaza,” Minto said.

    “To imply the campaign is targeting Jews is disgusting and despicable.

    “Some of the soldiers will be Druse, some Palestinian Arabs and others will be Jews.”

    The five-year-old Palestinian girl Hind Rajab, shot 355 times by Israeli soldiers on 29 January 2024. Image: @Onlyloren/Instagram

    Israeli soldiers are facing a growing risk of being arrested abroad for alleged war crimes committed in Gaza, with around 50 criminal complaints filed so far in courts in several countries around the world.

    Earlier this month, a former Israeli soldier abruptly ended his holiday in Brazil and was “smuggled” out of the country after a Federal Court ordered police to open a war crimes investigation against him. The man fled to Argentina.

    A complaint lodged by the Belgium-based Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF) included more than 500 pages of court records linking the suspect to the demolition of civilian homes in Gaza.

    ‘Historic’ court ruling against soldier
    The foundation called the Brazilian court’s decision “historic”, saying it marked a significant precedent for a member country of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to enforce Rome Statute provisions domestically in the 15-month Israeli war on Gaza.

    The foundation is named in honour of five-year-old Palestinian girl Hind Rajab who was killed on 29 January 2024 by Israel soldiers while pleading for help in a car after her six family members were dead.

    According to The New Arab, the foundation has so far tracked and sent the names of 1000 Israeli soldiers to the ICC and Interpol, and has been pursuing legal cases in a number of countries, including Belgium, Brazil, Cyprus, France, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Thailand, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

    In November, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, together with a former Hamas commander, citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Minto accused the New Zealand Jewish Council of being “deeply racist” and said it regularly “makes a meal of false smears of anti-semitism”.

    “It’s deeply problematic that this Jewish Council strategy takes attention away from the real anti-semitism which exists in New Zealand and around the world.

    “The priority of the Jewish Council is to protect Israel from criticism and protect it from accountability for its apartheid policies, ethnic cleansing and genocide.

    “We are demanding that accountability.”

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Lower inflation in the December quarter boosts chances of an interest rate cut

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

    ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

    Australia’s headline inflation rate dropped to a three-year low of 2.4% in the December quarter, according to the Consumer Price Index, adding to pressure for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank as soon as next month.

    Since it peaked at 7.8% in December 2022, inflation has now fallen for seven out of eight quarters.

    The closely watched core inflation measure dropped sharply to 3.2% from 3.6%, below market expectations, but the central bank is concerned about how sustainable the fall in inflation will be. Strength in the labour market is also weighing against the need for a cut in interest rates.

    The long-running quarterly measure of the CPI is a better indicator than the more volatile monthly version. But the monthly rate is currently very similar; it ended the year at 2.5%.

    Why did inflation fall?

    A main reason headline inflation fell was the electricity rebates, which led to the price of electricity falling by 25.2% during 2024.

    The fall in global oil prices, which led to petrol prices dropping 7.9% during 2024, also contributed to the decline in inflation.

    The rental market is easing, with rents slowing from growth of 7.3% during 2023 to 6.4% during 2024. Increases in Commonwealth Rent Assistance contributed to the deceleration. This still leaves a lot of families facing rental stress.

    Home builders offering discounts have moderated the “new dwellings” component of the CPI. It increased by only 2.9% during 2024, a marked deceleration from the growth rates of around 20% seen in 2022.

    Urban transport fares also fell during 2024.

    Working against the downward trend were increases to the tobacco excise, in addition to the standard indexation, which led to tobacco prices rising by 12.2% during 2024.

    Insurance costs continue to rise, increasing by 11% during 2024. If the Californian fires lead to insurers revising up their assessment of the risks posed by climate change, insurance premia could rise further.

    The decline in the Australian dollar, while not as alarming as some media reports would suggest, would have added to the price of some goods, particularly those imported from the United States or whose price is denominated in US dollars.



    Read more:
    The Australian dollar has hit a 5 year low. Sounds bad but don’t panic

    The decline in inflation may be a pleasant surprise to the half of voters who were expecting inflation to get worse.

    The “underlying” rate of inflation, which looks through temporary measures such as the electricity subsidies and is the preferred measure of the central bank, has also declined. It is now 3.2%.

    Australia’s inflation performance is similar to that in comparable countries. It is slightly lower than inflation in the United Kingdom (2.5%) and the same as in the euro area. It is higher than in New Zealand (2.2%) and Canada (1.8%).

    The fall in inflation to a rate significantly below the 3.5% at which wages are increasing means that the cost of living crisis is abating, although not yet over.

    The quarterly increases in the CPI during 2024 were 1.0% in March and June and 0.2% in September and December. As the large increases in the first half of 2024 are replaced, the annual rate should drop further in coming quarters.

    What does it mean for interest rates?

    The current Reserve Bank board meets next on February 18. By the following meeting, on April 1, the decisions will be taken by the new monetary policy board, which will have two new members.



    Read more:
    The Reserve Bank will now have a separate board just to set interest rates. Here’s why that’s significant

    This is the second consecutive quarter that inflation has been within the Reserve Bank’s medium-term target band of 2–3%. It is now just below the mid-point of the band.

    Inflation is also below the Bank’s latest forecasts of 2.6% (and 3.4% for the “underlying” rate).

    But the bank has stated it will only cut interest rates when “members are confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards target”.

    Inflation that is low just because of temporary electricity subsidies may not be regarded as ‘sustainable’. That is why the Bank places more emphasis on the underlying inflation measure. While not yet within the target band, underlying inflation has been steadily heading there and is now only just above it. This may be enough to give the Bank board members the confidence they seek. Financial markets now think so.

    The government would dearly like to see rates coming down before the election, likely to be in April or May. It faces a nervous wait.

    John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist at the Reserve Bank and Treasury.

    – ref. Lower inflation in the December quarter boosts chances of an interest rate cut – https://theconversation.com/lower-inflation-in-the-december-quarter-boosts-chances-of-an-interest-rate-cut-246987

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is the 90-year-old tax rule Trump could use to double US taxes on foreigners?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Miranda Stewart, Professor of Law, The University of Melbourne

    US President Franklin D. Roosevelt. National Archives and Records Administration/Wikimedia Commons

    US President Donald Trump isn’t happy about the way some countries are taxing American citizens and companies. He has made clear he’s willing to retaliate, threatening to double taxes for their own citizens and companies.

    Can Trump really do that, unilaterally, as president? It turns out he can, under a 90-year-old provision of the US tax code – Section 891.

    In an executive memo signed on January 20 outlining his “America First Trade Policy”, Trump instructed US Treasury to:

    investigate whether any foreign country subjects United States citizens or corporations to discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes pursuant to Section 891 of Title 26, United States Code.

    A sweeping power

    Section 891 of the US Internal Revenue Code is short, but it is in sweeping terms.

    If the president finds that US citizens or corporations are being subjected to “discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes” under the laws of any foreign country, he “shall so proclaim” this. US income tax rates on the citizens or corporations of that country are then automatically doubled.

    The extra tax that could be collected is capped at 80% of the US taxable income of the taxpayer. The president can revoke a proclamation, if the foreign country reverses its “discriminatory or extraterritorial” taxation.

    Section 891 is an extraordinary provision – but it has never been applied. As far as I know, no other country has legislated such a rule. Importantly, it would only apply to a person or business subject to income taxation by the US.

    Take, for example, a foreign national earning a wage in the US. If this individual’s home country became subject to a proclamation under Section 891, their individual tax rate in the US would be doubled – to as much as 74%.

    A foreign company earning taxable profits in the US would face a doubling of the company tax rate from 21% to 42%.

    A bit of history

    A version of Section 891 has been in the US tax code since 1934, an earlier troubled time of tax disputes and economic depression.

    It was signed into law by Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt on May 10 1934, amid a tax dispute between the US and France.

    US President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Section 891 into law in 1934, putting pressure on France to end a tax dispute.
    Vincenzo Laviosa/Wikimedia Commons

    According to US tax historian Joseph Thorndike, the move followed attempts by France to levy additional taxes on US companies operating there, beginning in the mid-1920s.

    France had tried to use an 1873 law to tax US companies operating in France on profits earned in the parent company back in the US, and in other subsidiaries around the world, not just the French company profits.

    The aim was to counter international profit-shifting, which could be used to reduce the tax payable by US subsidiaries operating in France by claiming deductions or shifting income to other group companies outside France.

    The dispute was long-standing and France tried to assess taxes going back decades for some US companies. The potentially massive tax bill (it seems the tax was never actually collected) became a geopolitical issue, and the companies asked the US government to intervene on their behalf.

    Thorndike explains that a bilateral tax treaty was negotiated between the US and France to remedy this “double tax” situation. But the French legislature refused to ratify it.

    In retaliation, US Congress passed Section 891, and six months later, France ratified its bilateral tax treaty with the US.

    Parallels with today

    In 1934, there were no digital multinational enterprises like Meta or Google. But that tax dispute nevertheless has parallels with modern concerns about taxing companies internationally.

    The French government was trying, with a rather heavy hand, to counter international profit-shifting by large US multinationals.

    Section 891 was re-enacted in later US tax codes, up to today, with minor amendments and no attempt to invoke it. It has remained in the background as a potential exercise of US fiscal and market power, supported by both sides of US politics.

    Tax professor Itai Grinberg, who worked in the Biden administration on the OECD tax deal, suggested it could be applied to the European Union decision that taxes Apple in Ireland.

    The US tech giants are only the latest in a long line of powerful American multinational corporations.
    Tada Images/Shutterstock

    What might Trump do?

    President Trump has specifically targeted the OECD global tax negotiations with this threat, just a month after Australia has legislated the global minimum tax under “Pillar Two” of the OECD Global Tax Deal.

    The OECD deal aims to ensure large multinational enterprises pay a minimum 15% effective tax rate in all the jurisdictions in which they operate, by applying a top-up tax and under-taxed profit tax.

    Trump asserted in a memorandum that the OECD Global Tax Deal is “extraterritorial”, instructing the US Secretary of the Treasury and the US Trade Representative to investigate it.

    Could Australia be singled out?

    Trump’s memorandum also ordered an investigation into “other discriminatory foreign tax practices” that may harm US companies.

    This includes whether any foreign countries are not complying with their US tax treaties or have, or are likely to put in place, any tax rules that “disproportionately affect American companies”.

    Notably, this could put Australia’s proposed “news bargaining incentive” in the crosshairs.

    Under this proposal, digital platforms (many of which are US-owned) would have to pay a new levy, which could be offset if they negotiate or renew deals with Australian news media publishers to pay for hosting news content.

    Section 891 could apply to such taxes if they were found by Trump to be “discriminatory” against US companies. What “discriminatory” means is not clear.

    Its been suggested that foreign citizens or companies could be protected from Section 891 by their country’s tax treaty with the US, under the standard approach that a later treaty prevails over an older code section. But Australia’s tax treaty with the US took effect in 1983, before the most recent re-enactment of Section 891 in the US tax code.



    Read more:
    News bargaining incentive: the latest move in the government’s ‘four-dimensional chess’ battle with Meta

    Miranda Stewart receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Miranda is on the Permanent Scientific Committee of the International Fiscal Association.

    – ref. What is the 90-year-old tax rule Trump could use to double US taxes on foreigners? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-90-year-old-tax-rule-trump-could-use-to-double-us-taxes-on-foreigners-248154

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is a ‘crime scene’, really? An expert explains how it’s more than just blue police tape

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vincent Hurley, Lecturer in Criminology. Police and policing. Dept of Security Studies & Criminology, Macquarie University

    When you watch the news, one phrase usually comes up as soon as crime is mentioned: “police have established a crime scene”.

    If you’re a fan of the forensics crime drama CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, it will conjure up images of police waving a blue, fluorescent UV light in a darkened room looking for blood, saliva, fingerprints, footprints or tooth impressions.

    CSI has influenced an entire generation – this year, the franchise will celebrate its 25th anniversary. But the reality of crime scene investigation is far more complex.

    As a criminology lecturer and ex-police officer, I know a thing or two about crime scenes, having managed hundreds of them. I have even been a crime scene myself. Here’s what they really entail.

    There’s usually more than one crime scene

    In the early 20th century, French forensic science pioneer Edmond Locard noted it’s impossible for criminals to act “without leaving traces of this presence”. No matter where a criminal steps or what they touch, they leave behind, even unconsciously, evidence that serves as a silent witness against them.

    The idea that criminals will leave something behind at the crime scene while taking something with them is known today as Locard’s principle.

    Crime scenes are incredibly diverse. They don’t just involve the physical location. A person’s body and any objects found in relation to the crime are also part of a crime scene.

    The primary crime scene is where the event took place – for example, where a murder, arson attack or drive-by shooting occurred.

    There will be several additional crime scenes, too. In the course of the investigation, a second crime scene might be established where the criminal planned the crime. If they dumped a getaway vehicle, that’s a third crime scene. If they stashed a weapon, clothes or other objects in a safe house after the crime, that’s a fourth crime scene.

    A fifth crime scene will be established when the criminal is arrested – they themselves are also a crime scene. Their hair, clothing and fingernails will be tested for various residues, such as the skin or blood of a victim, or even illicit substances if the crime involves drug trafficking.

    Lastly, the victim is a crime scene, too. They may have body fluids, skin, hair and other material from the criminal on them.

    In my detective career, I myself have been a crime scene when I found a badly injured abduction victim who collapsed in my arms. At that point, traces of the offender’s blood and hair transferred onto my clothing. I had to take the clothes off and they were kept as evidence.

    Hair found on a victim’s clothing can serve as evidence.
    Sendo Serra/Shutterstock

    Crime scenes are confusing

    Shows like CSI often portray crime scenes as neat and clear cut, with evidence easily obtained.

    In reality, crime scenes are chaotic. They are full of clutter and the police don’t know what’s relevant and what’s not.

    During a crime scene search, police have to speculate about what happened, as often there are no eyewitnesses. A bullet casing or a bloody knife would be obvious. But what of the more common household items in the house or room? Who owns the shirt or jumper? Why is the bedroom in disarray, is that normal? What did the criminal touch or not touch? Was there just one criminal or two? What belongs to the victim?

    Unlike on TV, police don’t always know what they are looking for because often they don’t know how the crime occurred. The cause of a death can be obvious, but how it unfolded is not.

    Crime scenes are fragile

    With a murder on a TV show, the CSI team usually arrives at a home or an outdoor crime scene, surrounded by crime scene tape. The first thing they do is lift the tape and walk straight to the body.

    This is the worst possible crime scene practice.

    The detectives would be walking directly on and over the same entry or exit path the offenders used. This would destroy fragile microscopic residues of blood, dirt or plant vegetation.

    In reality, walking in and out of a crime scene this way does not happen. Prior to entering any crime scene, police look around and try to figure out which way the offender may have come and gone.

    Once weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of each option, they’ll pick a specific entry and exit point, and stick to that until the scene has been completely examined.

    Lifting the police tape and walking straight to the body is bad practice – the tape is there for a reason.
    Gordenkoff/Shutterstock

    A systematic search – and not just for DNA

    Crime scenes are also searched in different ways.

    One way to ensure no evidence is missed is with a “grid and height” search. This means searching one square metre at a time. As the police get closer to the walls of the room, they start looking from the floor up to the height of their knees.

    Once this is done, they go from their knee to their waist, then from their waist to their shoulder, then their shoulder to the top of their head, and then from the top of their head to a metre above it – until they reach the ceiling. Then they examine the ceiling.

    Police don’t look solely for the holy grail of DNA. Rather, they are trying to piece together a jigsaw puzzle of what happened, why it happened, and what the criminal unintentionally left behind.

    Decades of forensic TV dramas have resulted in the “CSI effect” – the idea that finding, collecting and analysing evidence at a crime scene is straightforward, and that the evidence is infallible. This is not so. But shows like CSI have also spawned a generation of people interested in becoming real crime scene investigators and forensic scientists.

    Vincent Hurley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is a ‘crime scene’, really? An expert explains how it’s more than just blue police tape – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-crime-scene-really-an-expert-explains-how-its-more-than-just-blue-police-tape-245369

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: DeepSeek shatters beliefs about the cost of AI, leaving US tech giants reeling

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Michael J. Davern, Professor of Accounting & Business Information Systems, The University of Melbourne

    Almost A$1 trillion (US$600 billion) was wiped off the value of artificial intelligence microchip maker Nvidia overnight on Monday, when a little-known Chinese startup, DeepSeek, threatened to upend the US tech market.

    While Nvidia suffered the biggest one-day loss in sharemarket history, other tech giants – Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, who are investing heavily in competing AI tools including ChatGPT and Gemini – were also hit.

    The rout was caused by investors’ shock at the claimed performance of DeepSeek’s new R1 chatbot. The Chinese AI was reported to be more advanced than its competitors and less expensive to develop.

    DeepSeek R1 has soared, becoming the top free downloaded app on Apple’s app store, as US technology and related stock prices fell dramatically.

    Why tech stocks took a deep dive

    The market was surprised by DeepSeek providing what amounts to cheaper technology but comparable performance.

    This has dramatically changed the market’s expectations of computing power, showing more can be done for less. It has also compromised the competitiveness of the US tech companies’ existing AI products and developments.

    Stock prices are driven by market expectations. The claimed performance of DeepSeek R1 prompted a major revision of expectations about what was technologically possible and about how cheaply AI could be developed and operated.

    Investors have rapidly incorporated the news of a low-cost Chinese AI competitor into stock prices, anticipating this new entrant could disrupt the market and erode the competitive advantage of existing leaders.

    Who is DeepSeek and what is R1?

    DeepSeek was founded in 2023 by Chinese hedge fund High Flyer, which had been exclusively using AI in trading since 2021.

    DeepSeek develops large language models (LLMs) that can underpin chatbots and other AI-based tools. R1 is the latest iteration of DeepSeek’s chatbot and underlying model. It builds on earlier versions of generative AI models developed by DeepSeek, and considerable amounts of data, but is a surprising leap forward in performance and cost.

    R1 is the latest version of DeepSeek’s chatbot.
    Koshiro K/Shutterstock

    Technology investors believe R1 matches or outperforms competitors, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT 4.o1 on numerous benchmarks.

    However, there are some key differences:

    1. The model underlying R1 operates in a much less intensive manner. It is much cheaper to develop and run, requiring less data and computing power.

    2. The training of the model was possible despite the US export ban preventing Chinese companies such as DeepSeek from accessing chips from US companies such as Nvidia. The Biden administration had introduced laws restricting the sale of certain computer chips and machinery to China, in a move intended to block its rival from accessing some of the world’s most advanced technology.

    3. The training data and data uploaded to R1 sit on servers in China. Given concerns about data privacy and intellectual property have already been raised about US-based companies, having data under jurisdiction of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is arguably even more concerning.

    4. The chatbot program code is free to download, read and modify, unlike ChatGPT. This is however somewhat a false transparency – what matters more is the underlying model, not the Chatbot code.

    5. R1 is known to censor its responses in line with Chinese Communist Party values.

    The future of AI and tech stocks

    It is unknown whether this crash in price of tech stocks is an irrational panic that will reverse, or whether it simply reflects correct pricing. The future costs and benefits of AI are still uncertain.

    This is both a technological and an economic question.

    In technological terms, it is yet to be seen whether R1 really does require less computing power and less data to train and use.

    Economically, there are potential winners and losers. AI users may win with cheaper access to AI, and LLMs in particular, leading to increased adoption and associated productivity gains. Existing producers such as Nvidia may lose out in what was a market with few real competitors.

    More broadly, society may benefit from less computationally intensive, and therefore more energy-efficient, AI. However, the geopolitical risk of a single country capturing the market, together with concerns about data privacy, intellectual property and censorship may outweigh the benefits.

    Michael J. Davern has previously received funding from CPA Australia for industry research into Artificial Intelligence.

    Matt Pinnuck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. DeepSeek shatters beliefs about the cost of AI, leaving US tech giants reeling – https://theconversation.com/deepseek-shatters-beliefs-about-the-cost-of-ai-leaving-us-tech-giants-reeling-248424

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When news is stressful, how do you balance staying informed with ‘doomscrolling’?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Lisa Harrison, Lecturer in Digital Communications, Flinders University

    Mart Production/Pexels

    It all begins innocently – a late-night peek at your favourite social media site before bed. You catch a headline that grabs your attention with “breaking news” you can’t afford to miss.

    Like following digital breadcrumbs, one click leads to another. Before you know it, you’re tumbling down a rabbit hole of endless updates and emotionally charged social media posts. Two hours later, your shoulders are tense, your stomach is in knots, but you can’t put your phone down.

    This endless scrolling through bad news – known as “doomscrolling” – sneaks up on us.

    It’s important to stay in touch with what’s happening in the world. Being informed helps us make better decisions, engage meaningfully in our communities, and respond effectively to changes that affect our lives and those around us.

    But just like a healthy diet, we must be smart about our news consumption to avoid it taking a toll on our health.

    The good news is there are proven ways to stay informed without letting it take over your life. Research shows setting clear boundaries around your news consumption can make a huge difference. So, how can you strike the right balance?

    How to set boundaries with news consumption

    It’s worth considering why you feel compelled to stay constantly informed. Ask yourself: “will this information change what I can do about it?”.

    Often, we scroll not because the information is actionable, but because we are trying to gain a sense of control in an uncertain world.

    Research shows scrolling through negative news can disrupt your sleep and increase anxiety. To make sure your media consumption is intentional, there are a few steps you can take.

    Be picky with the news sources you read. Choose a few trusted outlets instead of letting social media algorithms decide what you see. It’s like sticking to a balanced meal plan, but for your mind.

    While engaging with the news, pay close attention to how you’re feeling. When you notice physical signs of anxiety or emotional distress, that is your cue to take a break.

    Set aside time earlier in the day with clear boundaries around your news consumption: maybe with your morning coffee or during your lunch break, whatever works for your schedule. Consider implementing a “digital sunset”, too. This is a cut-off time for news and social media, ideally an hour or two before bedtime, to give your mind time to process what you have learned without disrupting your sleep.

    The world will always be there, but you will be in a better head space to process what is happening.

    You don’t have to feel helpless

    Taking breaks from consuming news is not burying your head in the sand – it’s practising self care. Studies have shown that people who set healthy boundaries around news consumption are often better equipped to engage meaningfully on important issues and take constructive action when needed.

    When you check the news, be an active consumer. Instead of endless scrolling:

    • choose one or two in-depth articles to read thoroughly

    • discuss the news with colleagues, friends and family to process your feelings

    • look for solution-focused news stories that highlight positive change

    • take meaningful action on issues you care about.

    There are also various apps and tools that can help you form healthier digital habits. Productivity apps use various approaches to help you stay focused, providing ways to snap you out of mindless scrolling.

    News curation apps and apps that allow you to save articles to read later can help you establish a balanced news diet, and remove the urgent need to read everything immediately.

    Many smartphones now come equipped with screen time management features, such as Apple’s Screen Time or Android’s Digital Wellbeing. You can use these to monitor your scrolling habits and to manage how much time you spend on social media or news apps.

    One useful feature is to block apps from use during certain times of day or after you’ve used them for a set amount of time.

    Screen time management features allow you to pause or block apps from use.
    The Conversation

    Stay mindful, stay engaged

    Staying informed doesn’t mean staying constantly connected. By mindfully setting boundaries and using supportive tools, you can keep up with important events while protecting your wellbeing.

    If you’re trying productivity apps and other tools, start small. Choose one tool that resonates with you rather than trying everything at once. Set realistic goals that fit your life, and use these apps’ insights to understand your habits better.

    Pay attention to what triggers your doomscrolling and adjust your settings accordingly. Remember, these tools work best when combined with offline activities you enjoy.

    The goal isn’t to disconnect completely, but to find a sustainable balance between staying informed and maintaining peace of mind. With thoughtful boundaries and the right support tools, you can stay engaged with the world while keeping your mental health intact.

    Lisa Harrison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When news is stressful, how do you balance staying informed with ‘doomscrolling’? – https://theconversation.com/when-news-is-stressful-how-do-you-balance-staying-informed-with-doomscrolling-248017

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Does your school have enough trees? Here’s why they’re great for kids and their learning

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Stanley, Professor of Ecology, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Getty Images

    Do schools and trees mix? You may have memories of shady playing areas and shelter belts by playing fields, but our recent study suggests this is increasingly an exception rather than a rule.

    Trees are often seen as a health and safety risk, whether from branches or the whole thing falling, or from children falling out of them. Many schools have banned pupils from climbing trees as a result.

    Beyond that, trees are often seen as an optional “nice to have”. New Zealand’s current education minister criticised extensive landscaping and bespoke design when announcing a review of school properties in early 2024.

    But the benefits of trees and other vegetation in urban areas are well known, and increasingly important as housing density increases. Schools can play a significant role in encouraging the growth of “urban forests”.

    Unfortunately, there are also large differences in tree canopy cover in New Zealand cities (and elsewhere in the world), with low socioeconomic areas often having low tree canopy cover.

    This matters because trees and nature in general provide us with enormous health and wellbeing benefits, regardless of socioeconomic standing.

    Natural benefits

    Very little is known about green spaces on local school grounds. So, our research set out to survey the quantity and quality of green spaces in 64 urban primary schools in Auckland.

    We conducted the survey in the context of several known factors about the role and place of nature in education:

    Because schools are fairly evenly distributed throughout cities, and can have a large spatial footprint, there’s also an opportunity to enhance wider native biodiversity, create ecological corridors and maintain cultural connections.

    Fields but few trees

    Unfortunately, our survey found the green spaces of most Auckland primary schools are dominated by sports fields.

    While it’s good news that children have access to these, adding trees and shrubs around the edges of the fields could provide many benefits without compromising existing play spaces.

    Native biodiversity was also lacking. In fact, 33% of school ground contained environmental weeds, such as woolly nightshade. There were also many more introduced plant species than native species, and most schools lacked a shrub layer.

    Urban green spaces in general tend to favour single trees with mown lawn underneath. But birds feed in different layers of vegetation and need that shrub layer and some vegetation complexity.

    The most common native tree by far was pōhutakawa. But planting a monoculture of pōhutakawa is a big risk if a disease (such as myrtle rust) has a big impact on that species.

    Diversity is key. Planting other native species such as pūriri, karaka, rewarewa or tītoki would increase plant diversity, attract native birds and other species, as well as provide sun shade.

    Room for improvement

    There was some good news, however. Of the 64 schools surveyed, 36% had a forest patch. This gives the children access to an outdoor learning resource that may be lacking from their immediate neighbourhood.

    It was heartening to find every school had at least one species associated with weaving, with both harakeke and tī kōuka present at 83% of schools.

    We know young Māori in cities are at risk of losing cultural knowledge and opportunities for cultural practices, so the availability of key weaving species is an excellent opportunity for schools and their whānau.

    If this was a report card, Auckland’s school green spaces would not be high-achieving. But there are plenty of opportunities to improve. Adding more diversity, more native plants, and planting trees around the edges of sports fields will provide a wealth of benefits to both children and the city’s overall biodiversity.

    Using outdoor spaces for learning will increase natural and cultural connections and improve children’s wellbeing. That is much more than a “nice to have”.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Does your school have enough trees? Here’s why they’re great for kids and their learning – https://theconversation.com/does-your-school-have-enough-trees-heres-why-theyre-great-for-kids-and-their-learning-246411

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump 2.0 chaos and destruction — what it means Down Under

    What will happen to Australia — and New Zealand — once the superpower that has been followed into endless battles, the United States, finally unravels?

    COMMENTARY: By Michelle Pini, managing editor of Independent Australia

    With President Donald Trump now into his second week in the White House, horrific fires have continued to rage across Los Angeles and the details of Elon Musk’s allegedly dodgy Twitter takeover began to emerge, the world sits anxiously by.

    The consequences of a second Trump term will reverberate globally, not only among Western nations. But given the deeply entrenched Americanisation of much of the Western world, this is about how it will navigate the after-shocks once the United States finally unravels — for unravel it surely will.

    Leading with chaos
     Now that the world’s biggest superpower and war machine has a deranged criminal at the helm — for a second time — none of us know the lengths to which Trump (and his puppet masters) will go as his fingers brush dangerously close to the nuclear codes. Will he be more emboldened?

    The signs are certainly there.

    President Donald Trump 2.0 . . . will his cruelty towards migrants and refugees escalate, matched only by his fuelling of racial division? Image: ABC News screenshot IA

    So far, Trump — who had already led the insurrection of a democratically elected government — has threatened to exit the nuclear arms pact with Russia, talked up a trade war with China and declared “all hell will break out” in the Middle East if Hamas hadn’t returned the Israeli hostages.

    Will his cruelty towards migrants and refugees escalate, matched only by his fuelling of racial division?

    This, too, appears to be already happening.

    Trump’s rants leading up to his inauguration last week had been a steady stream of crazed declarations, each one more unhinged than the last.

    He wants to buy Greenland. He wishes to overturn birthright citizenship in order to deport even more migrant children, such as  “pet-eating Haitians” and “insane Hannibal Lecters” because America has been “invaded”.

    It will be interesting to see whether his planned evictions of Mexicans will include the firefighters Mexico sent to Los Angeles’ aid.

    At the same time, Trump wants to turn Canada into the 51st state, because, he said,

    “It would make a great state. And the people of Canada like it.”

    Will sexual predator Trump’s level of misogyny sink to even lower depths post Roe v Wade?

    Probably.

    Denial of catastrophic climate consequences
    And will Trump be in even further denial over the catastrophic consequences of climate change than during his last term? Even as Los Angeles grapples with a still climbing death toll of 25 lives lost, 12,000 homes, businesses and other structures destroyed and 16,425 hectares (about the size of Washington DC) wiped out so far in the latest climactic disaster?

    The fires are, of course, symptomatic of the many years of criminal negligence on global warming. But since Trump instead accused California officials of “prioritising environmental policies over public safety” while his buddy and head of government “efficiency”, Musk blamed black firefighters for the fires, it would appear so.

    Will the madman, for surely he is one, also gift even greater protections to oligarchs like Musk?

    Trump has already appointed billionaire buddies Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to:

     “…pave the way for my Administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures and restructure Federal agencies”.

    So, this too is already happening.

    All of these actions will combine to create a scenario of destruction that will see the implosion of the US as we know it, though the details are yet to emerge.

    The flawed AUKUS pact sinking quickly . . . Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with outgoing President Joe Biden, will Australia have the mettle to be bigger than Trump. Image: Independent Australia

    What happens Down Under?
    US allies — like Australia — have already been thoroughly indoctrinated by American pop culture in order to complement the many army bases they house and the defence agreements they have signed.

    Though Trump hasn’t shown any interest in making it a 52nd state, Australia has been tucked up in bed with the United States since the Cold War. Our foreign policy has hinged on this alliance, which also significantly affects Australia’s trade and economy, not to mention our entire cultural identity, mired as it is in US-style fast food dependence and reality TV. Would you like Vegemite McShaker Fries with that?

    So what will happen to Australia once the superpower we have followed into endless battles finally breaks down?

    As Dr Martin Hirst wrote in November:

    ‘Trump has promised chaos and chaos is what he’ll deliver.’

    His rise to power will embolden the rabid Far-Right in the US but will this be mirrored here? And will Australia follow the US example and this year elect our very own (admittedly scaled down) version of Trump, personified by none other than the Trump-loving Peter Dutton?

    If any of his wild announcements are to be believed, between building walls and evicting even US nationals he doesn’t like, while simultaneously making Canadians US citizens, Trump will be extremely busy.

    There will be little time even to consider Australia, let alone come to our rescue should we ever need the might of the US war machine — no matter whether it is an Albanese or sycophantic Dutton leadership.

    It is a given, however, that we would be required to honour all defence agreements should our ally demand it.

    It would be great if, as psychologists urge us to do when children act up, our leaders could simply ignore and refuse to engage with him, but it remains to be seen whether Australia will have the mettle to be bigger than Trump.

    Republished from the Independent Australia with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What’s behind Trump’s flurry of executive action: 4 essential reads on autocrats and authoritarianism

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeff Inglis, Politics + Society Editor, The Conversation US

    President Donald Trump shows off one of his new orders upon taking office. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

    If you think a lot is happening in the federal government all at once on a lot of different issues, you’re right.

    At the beginning of a new presidential administration, there is often a flurry of changes – new Cabinet appointments and a few executive orders. But what’s happening right now in Washington, D.C. – actions affecting immigration, tariffs, the firing of career government workers, gender identity, federally funded research, foreign aid and even broader categories of federal spending – is different from most presidential transitions, in volume, pace, content and breadth of the changes ordered.

    Administration officials and Trump allies have described all this action as a “shock and awe” campaign intended to “flood the zone.” Translation: It’s both an effort to demonstrate autocratic power and an effort to overwhelm and exhaust people who might resist the changes.

    The Conversation U.S. has published several articles – many from Donald Trump’s first term as president – that spell out how autocrats, and those who want to be autocrats, behave and why. Here are some key points to know.

    1. Seize executive power

    The move toward autocracy starts with wielding unyielding power over not only people but democratic institutions, explained Shelley Inglis, a scholar of international law at the University of Dayton. In a checklist of 10 items for wannabe authoritarians, the first task, she wrote, is being strong:

    “The mainstay of today’s authoritarianism is strengthening your power while simultaneously weakening government institutions, such as parliaments and judiciaries, that provide checks and balances. The key is to use legal means that ultimately give democratic legitimacy to the power grab.”



    Read more:
    So you want to be an autocrat? Here’s the 10-point checklist

    2. Control political backers

    When a leader’s supporters are more loyal to the person than their political party, that creates what is called a “personalist party,” as scholars of political science Erica Frantz at Michigan State University, Joe Wright at Penn State and Andrea Kendall-Taylor at Yale University described. That creates a danger to democracy, they wrote:

    “(W)hat matters for democracy is not so much the ambitions of power-hungry leaders, but rather whether those in their support group will tame them. … (W)hen personalist ruling parties hold legislative majorities and the presidency … there is little that stands in the way of a grab for power.”



    Read more:
    Why Trump’s control of the Republican Party is bad for democracy

    Many Republican Party members back Trump, in part because other party leaders signal their own support.
    AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

    3. Sideline the public

    In a democracy, the public has power. But if the people choose not to exercise it, that leaves room for an authoritarian leader to take more control, warned Mark Satta, a professor of philosophy and law at Wayne State University in an article comparing George Orwell’s book “Nineteen eighty-four” to modern events:

    “Trump routinely speaks like an autocrat. Yet many Americans excuse such talk, failing to treat it as the evidence of a threat to democracy that it is. This seems to me to be driven in part by the tendency Orwell identified to think that truly bad things won’t happen – at least not in one’s own country.”



    Read more:
    Nationalism is not patriotism: 3 insights from Orwell about Trump and the 2024 election

    Donald Trump hugs an American flag as he arrives at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 24, 2024, in Baltimore.
    Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

    4. Depend on complacency

    Another scholar delivered a warning of a possible future. Vickie Sullivan, a political science scholar at Tufts University, studies Renaissance writer Niccolò Machiavelli, who lived from 1469 to 1527.

    He is perhaps most widely known for encouraging “sole rulers – his phrase for authoritarians or dictators – … to use force and fraud to gain and maintain power,” she wrote. But Machiavelli had advice for the public, too, Sullivan explained:

    “He instructs republican citizens and leaders … to recognize how vulnerable the governments they cherish are and to be vigilant against the threats of tyranny. … If republican citizens and leaders fail to be vigilant, they will eventually be confronted with a leader who has accumulated an extremely powerful and threatening following. At that point, Machiavelli says, it will be too late to save the republic.”



    Read more:
    500 years ago, Machiavelli warned the public not to get complacent in the face of self-interested charismatic figures

    This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.

    – ref. What’s behind Trump’s flurry of executive action: 4 essential reads on autocrats and authoritarianism – https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-trumps-flurry-of-executive-action-4-essential-reads-on-autocrats-and-authoritarianism-248492

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Commerce oversees everything from weather and salmon to trade and census − here are 3 challenges awaiting new secretary

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Linda J. Bilmes, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Senior Lecturer in Public Policy and Public Finance, Harvard Kennedy School

    Howard Lutnick, left, is President Donald Trump’s nominee to run the Commerce Department. AP Photo/Evan Vucci

    The U.S. secretary of commerce oversees the smallest but arguably most complex of all Cabinet-level departments.

    Established as a distinct entity in 1913, it has evolved into a sprawling organization with 13 bureaus spanning a wide variety of critical areas that include weather forecasting, conducting the census, estimating gross domestic product, managing fisheries, promoting U.S. exports, setting standards for new technology and allocating radio frequency spectrum. It is even home to one of America’s eight uniformed military services, the NOAA Commissioned Officer Corps with its own fleet of ships, aircraft and 321 commissioned officers. Its main mission is to monitor oceans, waterways and the atmosphere in support of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

    As a result, there is no other Cabinet position that has to engage with lawmakers in Congress across so many disparate technical issues, committees and stakeholders. This medley reflects both the historical evolution of the U.S. economy and a degree of political happenstance.

    I served at the Commerce Department in several roles, including as chief financial officer and assistant secretary for administration, management and budget, and have watched several administrations attempt to craft an overarching strategic narrative around this diverse set of missions.

    Besides the difficult job of formulating a unifying strategy for the department’s many activities, I believe there are three specific challenges in particular that await the next secretary, a position that requires Senate confirmation.

    The Commerce Department manages salmon as part of its National Marine Fisheries Service.
    AP Photo/Manuel Valdes

    Commerce: A sprawling bureauocracy

    From its earliest days, the Commerce Department has collected trade statistics, overseen lighthouses and issued patents and trademarks. But since then, its portfolio has expanded significantly.

    In 1970, NOAA was placed inside Commerce, partly as a result of a feud between President Richard Nixon and his interior secretary, Wally Hickel, over the Vietnam War. NOAA now accounts for more than half the department’s US$11 billion budget and has created some peculiar departmental overlaps.

    As President Barack Obama joked in his 2011 State of the Union speech, “The Interior Department is in charge of salmon while they’re in freshwater, but the Commerce Department handles them when they’re in saltwater.”

    While the joke wasn’t quite accurate – a division of Commerce manages salmon in both fresh and saltwater, though Interior does restore their habitat – it does reflect some odd situations. For example, when it comes to sea turtles, Interior oversees their nests on shore, whereas Commerce protects them in the open sea.

    Due to the department’s broad interests, the commerce secretary has a role in nearly every important issue facing the country.

    He or she needs to be a quick study who is able to multitask, respond to congressional inquiries on a myriad of topics, as well as manage a 50,000-strong workforce including economists, scientists, statisticians, meteorologists and other experts.

    One example of the caliber of experts Commerce oversees is the National Institute for Standards and Technology, which does cutting-edge research in bioscience, artificial intelligence, materials science and industrial measurement standards. The institute currently has five Nobel laureates in physics and chemistry on its staff and is on the front lines on cybersecurity and national defense.

    While it’s unclear how Trump nominee Howard Lutnick plans to unify Commerce’s work, the previous secretary, Gina Raimondo, outlined five strategic goals for her department, including driving U.S. global competitiveness, using data to find new opportunities and modernizing its services and capabilities.

    The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation is holding a hearing on Jan. 29, 2025, to consider Lutnick’s nomination.

    Challenge No. 1: Another census is just around the corner

    The incoming secretary’s biggest challenge will be the decennial census due on April 1, 2030.

    The census counts every person living in the U.S. and five U.S. territories. Census data is used to apportion the number of seats each state has in the House of Representatives and to adjust or redraw electoral districts, as well as to apportion federal funding allotted to each district. Consequently, the census receives huge attention in Congress. It will be an especially hot topic because the data collected in the 2020 census had errors due to the pandemic.

    Conducting the census is highly labor intensive and takes many years of planning and preparation, which ramp up now.

    The Commerce Department must hire 500,000 temporary workers, open local offices and run large-scale field tests, award billions of dollars in contracts, and work with every state, local, county and tribal government in the country to map where people live. This includes dorms, homeless shelters, nursing homes, prisons, oil rigs, boats, tents, hospitals and mobile homes as well as houses and apartments.

    The Census Bureau says it began planning for 2030 as far back as 2019 and is preparing to do a test census in 2026.

    Trump administration policies, such as ongoing efforts to round up and deport undocumented migrants, will make it even more challenging to count immigrants and other historically hard-to-reach groups. During his first term, President Donald Trump sought to prevent unauthorized immigrants from being counted at all – but ran out of time.

    A NOAA crew on a reconnaissance flight into the eye of Hurricane Milton in October 2024.
    Sim Aberson/NOAA via AP

    Challenge No. 2: NOAA on the front lines of climate change fight

    Second, NOAA is likely to be in the political crosshairs, due to its role as a global leader in studying oceans, climate and coastal ecosystems.

    It tracks rising sea levels, ocean acidification and extreme weather events, and forecasts their impact on fisheries, shipping, marine protected areas and habitats. It also runs the National Weather Service and issues severe storm warnings. These and many other NOAA activities are vital to monitoring the pace of climate change and helping Americans adapt.

    NOAA’s mission and its budget are sure to be scrutinized by the Trump administration, which has already reversed a variety of policies meant to slow the pace of climate change. Trump himself has called climate change a “hoax.” That and policy proposals that seek to break up or privatize NOAA suggest many of NOAA’s climate-related activities could be under threat.

    Challenge No. 3: The patent problem

    A third challenge the incoming secretary will face is an ongoing crisis at the Patent and Trademark Office.

    Unlike most federal agencies, the Patent and Trademark Office is funded by user fees collected from applicants rather than from tax revenue. This is supposed to make it more efficient and easier to hire staff quickly, but the model is under stress due to a shortage of patent examiners with skills in assessing science, technology, engineering and math applications. The agency currently has a backlog of over 800,000 unexamined patent applications – near an all-time high.

    The backlog is likely to continue to grow as artificial intelligence and other state-of-the-art technologies accelerate the discovery cycle, but the slow process of patent approval – two years on average – can throw a wrench in it.

    Patents and trademarks are critical to U.S. competitiveness because they reward innovation and discovery and help inventors attract investors.

    The Trump administration’s broad federal hiring freeze is likely to worsen the Patent and Trademark Office’s staffing issues, while the back-to-office mandate may make it harder to recruit patent examiners, who often work remotely.

    On top of this, Elon Musk, whose companies hold large numbers of patents and who already holds tremendous sway in the Trump administration, says “patents are for the weak” and compared them with landmines in warfare. “They don’t actually help advance things,” he said. “They just stop others from following you.”

    In addition to these three areas, Commerce’s roles in international trade, telecommunications, industrial security and other matters could also become epicenters of any global crisis.

    This all adds up to an uncomfortable mix of political and operational challenges for the next secretary.

    This story is part of a series of profiles explaining Cabinet and high-level administration positions.

    Linda J. Bilmes is affiliated with the Harvard Kennedy School. She served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Department of Commerce from 1997-1998 and as CFO and Assistant Secretary for Management, Budget and Administration from 1999-2001.

    – ref. Commerce oversees everything from weather and salmon to trade and census − here are 3 challenges awaiting new secretary – https://theconversation.com/commerce-oversees-everything-from-weather-and-salmon-to-trade-and-census-here-are-3-challenges-awaiting-new-secretary-248087

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Sydney’s Museum of Contemporary Art is now charging for entry. It’s a sign our cultural sector needs help

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chiara O’Reilly, Senior Lecturer in Museum Studies, University of Sydney

    From January 31, Sydney’s Museum of Contemporary Art (MCA) will reintroduce ticketed entry, charging adults $20 for general admission and $35 for combined special exhibitions and museum entry. Entry will remain free for Australian students and people under 18.

    This decision, which reverses 24 years of free general entry to the museum, reflects broader challenges faced by museums globally.

    Driven by philanthropy

    The MCA was opened in 1991, established through the bequest of Australian expatriate artist John Power. As an independent, not-for-profit organisation, its administrative and financial structure is different from major cultural institutions in Sydney.

    Unlike the Art Gallery of New South Wales and Australian Museum, which are statutory bodies of the NSW government, the MCA receives a far smaller proportion of state funding.

    For 2023-2024, the NSW government delivered A$46.2 million in recurrent funding to the Art Gallery of NSW and $47.4 million to the Australian Museum. The MCA received $4.2 million, which represented just 16% of its total revenue.

    This funding disparity has always required the MCA to secure the bulk of its budget through other revenue streams. Corporate and philanthropic partnerships have been vital.

    In 2000, financial support from Telstra allowed the museum to offer free admission. In 2012, philanthropists including Simon and Catriona Mordant contributed greatly to fund the museum’s expansion.

    The MCA has also been proactive in leveraging its venue to maximise income. In 2023, 41% of revenue was earned through commercial services including venue hire, retail and commercial leases.

    Why there’s no more free entry

    Despite reducing its opening hours to six days a week post-COVID and scaling back audience engagement, the MCA’s financial pressures continued. According to director Suzanne Cotter, the museum “didn’t have any choice” but to implement an admission fee.

    While ticketed admission creates a financial barrier, it also provides visitors a way to invest directly in the museum’s future and sustainability.

    The MCA has consistently demonstrated its value, generating impressive visitor numbers. In 2019, attendance surpassed one million visitors, setting the museum ahead of many international peers.

    But the effects of the COVID pandemic have lingered. In 2022-23, the museum attracted 859,386 visitors – a 15% decline compared to 2019.

    In comparison, the Art Gallery of NSW welcomed almost two million visitors to its expanded campus in 2023, representing a 51% increase from pre-COVID figures.

    The MCA isn’t struggling alone

    Internationally, there are clear signs of an industry under immense pressure.

    Major US institutions such as The Metropolitan Museum of Art (The Met), The Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) and the Guggenheim and Whitney have all increased general adult admission fees to US$30.

    The Met’s shift away from a pay-what-you-can model to fixed admission for most visitors in 2018 was driven by speculation of a US$40 million deficit. However, New York state residents and students, as well as New Jersey and Connecticut students, can still pay what they wish – even as little as one cent.

    Similarly, at the Whitney, a US$2 million donation last year by Trustee and artist Julie Mehretu has helped enable free entry for under-25s.

    These examples show how paying visitors can support a museum’s sustainability while preserving subsidised access for priority groups.

    Across Europe, major museums including the Louvre and Uffizi are also increasing prices, though many retain periodic free days to ensure accessibility.

    In the UK, smaller regional museums are resorting to admission charges for the first time in their histories.

    Meanwhile, commentators such as cultural historian Ben Lewis argue major institutions such as the British Museum should start charging general admission fees to supplement stagnant government funding and decrease dependence on potentially unethical corporate donors.

    This would allow the museums to pay competitive wages and fund essential work, Lewis argues.

    Lewis’s concerns about corporate donations accord with debates taking place internationally and in Australia around the role of big oil, mining and pharmaceutical companies that use the arts to “greenwash” their public brand.

    Can accessiblity be prioritised in Australia?

    The MCA’s situation, which reflects international trends, raises questions about arts funding and access.

    Both the NSW and federal governments’ arts policies recognise the value of providing access to the arts. As the NSW government’s Creative Communities policy notes, “the right to participate in arts, cultural and creative activities is a fundamental human right.”

    The MCA excelled in this regard under its free admission policy, attracting a diverse audience that other museums often struggled to reach. In 2023, about half of the museums on-site visitors were under 35, and 45% were from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds.

    The NSW government’s policy – along with its national counterpart Revive – also emphasises the importance of telling Australian stories. This is another area the MCA has excelled in.

    The question then is: if the state and federal governments value equitable access to the arts and appreciates the platforming of Australian stories, will they commit to a more sustainable funding arrangement for organisations like the MCA?

    Without such a commitment, the gap between those who can afford to attend museums and those who can’t will continue to widen – compromising the democratic ideal of an accessible cultural sector.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sydney’s Museum of Contemporary Art is now charging for entry. It’s a sign our cultural sector needs help – https://theconversation.com/sydneys-museum-of-contemporary-art-is-now-charging-for-entry-its-a-sign-our-cultural-sector-needs-help-247458

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As the Black Summer megafires neared, people rallied to save wildlife and domestic animals. But it came at a real cost

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danielle Celermajer, Professor of Sociology and Social Policy, University of Sydney

    As the 2019-2020 megafires took hold across eastern Australia, many of us reeled at the sight of animals trying and often failing to flee. Our screens filled up with images of koalas with burned paws and possums in firefighter helmets.

    The death toll was staggering, estimated at up to three billion wild animals killed or displaced. Millions more were severely injured. Tens of thousands of domesticated animals were killed or had to be euthanised.

    In fighting these fires, authorities focused almost entirely on protecting human lives and property, other than targeted rescue efforts for the last remaining wild stand of Wollemi pine. The role of rescuing and caring for domesticated and wild animals fell almost entirely to community groups and individual carers, who stepped up to fill the gap at significant cost to themselves – financially, emotionally and sometimes even at a risk to their safety.

    Our new research draws on more than 60 interviews with wildlife carers and groups in the Shoalhaven region south of Wollongong in New South Wales. These people spontaneously organised themselves to care for thousands of domesticated, farm and wild animals, from evacuating them from fire zones to giving them shelter, food, water and healthcare.

    The lengths our interviewees went to were extraordinary. But these rescue efforts were largely invisible to authorities – and, as our interviewees told us, sometimes even condemned as irresponsible.

    What did our interviews tell us?

    The standard view in Australia is that only humans matter in the face of bushfires. But the way affected communities reached out to save as many animals as they could shows many people think we ought to be acting differently.

    One interviewee told about screaming for “her babies” as Rural Fire Service firefighters evacuated her. In response, the firies searched the house for human babies to no avail. When they found out she meant her wombat joeys, they laughed in relief. But to our interviewee, the joeys were like her babies. The joeys were safe inside her house.

    People cared for a wide range of species, from horses, chickens, bees and cows to native birds, possums, wombats and wallabies. Despite this, we found common themes.

    Many people felt the system had let them down when it came to protecting animals. This is why many of them felt they had to take matters into their own hands to ensure that animals survived.

    As one interviewee told us:

    one thing that you have to realise, is people’s animals are their children, and they are their life. If you let someone think that their animal isn’t safe, they will put themselves in danger to try and get to that animal or save that animal […] That’s one thing the firies — you know, if they’re not an animal compassionate person, they don’t get that.

    While some guidance on disaster preparation talks about how to protect pets such as cats and dogs, wildlife carers, farmers and horse owners often found themselves facing incoming fires with little or no information or support.

    People also told us about a lack of information on how to care for different types of animals during disasters. Information was often nonexistent or hard to locate, making decision-making during the crisis very difficult.

    As one farmer told us:

    there’s not any information on realistically what you do with your animals in a case of […] a massive disaster. I mean, it’s like someone said about cutting the fences. But now you’ve got stocking cattle running through the bush and they don’t know where the fire’s going to turn or what’s going to happen.

    The needs of animals differ significantly. It’s harder to find shelter for a horse than a smaller animal, for instance. Wildlife being cared for already need assistance, due to being orphaned, injured or ill. It’s harder to evacuate injured animals or joeys who need regular feeding than it is to evacuate healthy adult animals.

    Our interviewees reported price spikes for transport, food, temporary fencing and medicines during the 2019-2020 emergency season. Caring for animals always comes with costs, but the cost burden intensified over the Black Summer and afterwards.

    Caring for animals came with another cost too, to mental health. Many of our interviewees told us they still felt traumatised, even though our interviews were two or three years after the fires.

    As one interviewee told us:

    the people at Lake Conjola […] said it was like an apocalypse. They said there was dead birds dropping out of the sky. Kangaroos would come hopping out of the bush on fire […] I know it really heavily affected most people on the beach, the horrific things that they saw.

    Despite facing a lack of formal support and with limited information, people organised themselves very quickly into networks to share access to safe land, transport, food, labour and information. Dedicated people set up social media groups to allocate tasks, call for help and so on. This unsung animal rescue effort was almost entirely driven by volunteers.

    What should we do before the next megafires?

    Australia will inevitably be hit by more megafires, as climate change brings more hot, dry fire weather and humidity falls over land.

    What would it mean to include animals in our planning? To start with, more and better information for wildlife carers, farmers, pet owners and the wider community. It would mean directing more funds to animal care, both during and after disasters, and including animal care in local, state and federal disaster planning. It would mean improving communication networks so people know where to go.

    To this end, we developed a new guide for communities wanting to be better prepared to help animals in the next disaster. We prototyped an app designed to help communities organise themselves in order to help animals during disasters.

    The scale of the Black Summer fires found governments and communities largely
    unprepared. But we are now in a position to learn from what happened.

    As authorities prepare for the next fires, they should broaden how they think about disaster preparation. Our research suggests disaster planning needs to take place at a community level, rather than a focus on individual households. And vitally, authorities need to think of communities as made up of both humans and animals, rather than just humans.

    This research project was funded by the Australian government via a Bushfire Recovery Grant from the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources. It was conducted in partnership with the Shoalhaven City Council. This article was prepared solely by the University of Sydney research team and reflects our research and analysis only.

    This research project was funded by the Australian government via a Bushfire Recovery Grant from the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources. It was conducted in partnership with the Shoalhaven City Council.

    – ref. As the Black Summer megafires neared, people rallied to save wildlife and domestic animals. But it came at a real cost – https://theconversation.com/as-the-black-summer-megafires-neared-people-rallied-to-save-wildlife-and-domestic-animals-but-it-came-at-a-real-cost-248432

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What’s in the supplements that claim to help you cut down on bathroom breaks? And do they work?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nial Wheate, Professor of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Macquarie University

    Christian Moro/Shutterstock

    With one in four Australian adults experiencing problems with incontinence, some people look to supplements for relief.

    With ingredients such as pumpkin seed oil and soybean extract, a range of products promise relief from frequent bathroom trips.

    But do they really work? Let’s sift through the claims and see what the science says about their efficacy.

    What is incontinence?

    Incontinence is the involuntary loss of bladder or bowel control, leading to the unintentional leakage of urine or faeces. It can range from occasional minor leaks to a complete inability to control urination and defecation.

    This condition can significantly impact daily activities and quality of life, and affects women more often than it affects men.

    Some people don’t experience bladder leakage but can sometimes feel an urgent need to go to the bathroom. This is known as overactive bladder syndrome, and occurs when the muscles around the bladder tighten on their own, which greatly reduces its capacity. The result is the person feels the need to go to the bathroom much more frequently.

    There are many potential causes of incontinence and overactive bladders, including menopause, pregnancy and child birth, urinary tract infections, pelvic floor disorders, and an enlarged prostate. Conditions such as diabetes, neurological disorders and certain medications (such as diuretics, sleeping pills, antidepressants and blood-pressure drugs) can also contribute.

    While pelvic muscle rehabilitation and behavioural techniques for bladder retraining can be helpful, some people are interested in pharmaceutical solutions.

    What’s in these products?

    A number of supplements are available in Australia that include ingredients used in traditional medicine for urinary incontinence and overactive bladders. The three most common ingredients are:

    • Cucurbita pepo (pumpkin seed extract)

    • glycine max (soybean extract)

    • an extract from the bark of the Crateva magna or nurvala (Varuna) tree.

    The supplements have common ingredients.
    Author

    How are they supposed to work?

    Pumpkin seeds are rich in plant sterols that are thought to reduce the testosterone-related enlargement of the prostate, as well as having broader anti-inflammatory effects. The seed extracts can also contain oleic acid, which may help increase bladder capacity by relaxing the muscles around the organ.

    Soybean extracts are rich in isoflavones, especially daidzen and genistein. Like olieic acid, these are thought to act on the muscles around the bladder. Because isoflavones are similar in structure to the female hormone oestrogen, soy extracts may be most beneficial for postmenopausal women who have overactive bladders.

    Crateva extract is rich in lupeol- and sterol-based chemicals which have strong anti-inflammatory effects. This has benefits not just for enlarged prostates but possibly also for reducing urinary tract infections.

    Do they actually work?

    It’s important to note that the government has only approved these types of supplements as “listed medicines”. This means the ingredients have only been assessed for safety. The companies behind the products have not had to provide evidence they actually work.

    A 2014 clinical trial examined a combined pumpkin seed and soybean extract called cucurflavone on people with overactive bladders. The 120 participants received either a placebo or a daily 1,000mg dose of the herbal mixture over a period of 12 weeks.

    By the end of study, those in the cucurflavone group went to the bathroom around three fewer times per day, compared with people in the control group, who only went to the bathroom on average one fewer time each day.

    In a different trial, researchers examined a combination of Crateva bark extract with herbal extracts of horsetail and Japanese evergreen spicebush, called Urox.

    For the 150 participants, the Urox formulation helped participants go to the bathroom less frequently when compared with placebo treatment.

    After eight weeks of treatment, participants in the placebo group were going to the bathroom to urinate 11 times per day. Those in the Urox group were only going around to 7.5 times per day. And those who took Urox also needed to go to the bathroom one fewer time during the night.

    Finally, another study also examined a Creteva, horsetail and Japanese spicebush combination, but this time in children. They were given either a 420mg dose of the supplement or a placebo, and then monitored for how many times they wet the bed.

    After two months of taking the supplement, slightly more than 40% of the 24 kids in the supplement group wet the bed less often.

    While these results may look promising, there are considerable limitations to the studies which means the data may not be reliable. For example, the trials didn’t include enough participants to have reliable data. To conclusively provide efficacy, final-stage clinical trials require data for between 300 and 3,000 patients.

    From the studies, it is also not clear whether some participants were also taking other medicines as well as the supplement. This is important, as medications can interfere with how the supplements work, potentially making them less or more effective.

    What if you want to take them?

    If you have incontinence or an overactive bladder, you should always discuss this with your doctor, as it may due to a serious or treatable underlying condition.

    Otherwise, your GP may give you strategies or exercises to improve your bladder control, prescribe medications or devices, or refer you to a specialist.

    If you do decide to take a supplement, discuss this with your doctor and local pharmacist so they can check that any product you choose will not interfere with any other medications you may be taking.

    Nial Wheate in the past has received funding from the ACT Cancer Council, Tenovus Scotland, Medical Research Scotland, Scottish Crucible, and the Scottish Universities Life Sciences Alliance. He is a fellow of the Royal Australian Chemical Institute, a member of the Australasian Pharmaceutical Science Association and a member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Nial is the chief scientific officer of Vaihea Skincare LLC, a director of SetDose Pty Ltd (a medical device company) and was previously a Standards Australia panel member for sunscreen agents. Nial regularly consults to industry on issues to do with medicine risk assessments, manufacturing, design, and testing.

    – ref. What’s in the supplements that claim to help you cut down on bathroom breaks? And do they work? – https://theconversation.com/whats-in-the-supplements-that-claim-to-help-you-cut-down-on-bathroom-breaks-and-do-they-work-245755

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As the Myanmar junta’s hold on power weakens, could the devastating war be nearing a conclusion?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

    It has now been four years since the Myanmar military launched its cataclysmic coup against the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1 2021, starting a civil war that has devastated the country.

    Suu Kyi remains locked up, as do countless other activists and regime opponents. There is no easy resolution in sight.

    Indeed, the country is at a nadir. The war has sparked an economic crisis that has destroyed Myanmar’s health and education systems. Half the population now lives in poverty, double the rate from before the coup. The deteriorating electricity network causes widespread blackouts.

    According to the United Nations, more than 5,000 civilians have been killed and 3.3 million people have been displaced by the fighting. More than 27,000 people have also been arrested, with reports of sexual violence and torture rife.

    Nevertheless, opposition forces – including ethnic armies and the People’s Defence Force militias drawn from the civilian population – have been gathering strength, with a string of victories against the junta’s army.

    The regime now controls less than half the country. And recent strategic losses are weighing heavily on the military leaders, raising questions about whether the government could suddenly collapse like the Assad regime in Syria late last year.

    As the war enters a fifth year, there are two significant things to watch that could determine the country’s future – the battleground gains made by the opposition forces and the state of the failing economy.

    Junta under pressure on the battlefield

    Following the opposition Three Brotherhood Alliance’s battleground successes in late 2023, China brokered a ceasefire between the junta and alliance in northern Shan State.

    When that ceasefire ended last June, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), one of the members of the alliance, captured the key trading town of Lashio, as well as the junta’s nearby Northeast Regional Military Command. It was the first time one of the 14 regional military commands had fallen to an opposition group in more than 50 years of military rule.

    China has recently brokered another ceasefire between the MNDAA and the military, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. The terms have not been made public, but unless the insurgents relinquish Lashio and the military command – which is unlikely – it won’t alter the balance of power.

    In December, the military lost another command centre in Rakhine State in western Myanmar to the Arakan Army, another member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The Arakan Army now controls 14 of that state’s 17 townships.

    The Arakan Army, too, said recently it is open to political dialogue to potentially end the fighting. But it, too, is only likely to stop its military offensives for extremely favourable terms.

    In a major study undertaken in late 2024, the BBC assessed the junta only had full control of 21% of Myanmar’s territory. Ethnic armies and other opposition forces controlled 42% of the country, while the remaining areas were contested.

    In response, the junta has intensified its “scorched earth” tactics in areas outside its control, including indiscriminate and deliberate strikes against civilians. With dwindling reserves of willing fighters, air power is the main combat advantage it holds over the opposition forces.

    Economic woes

    Myanmar’s economic situation four years after the coup shows, starkly, just how much has been lost.

    Myanmar is now experiencing a full-blown economic and currency crisis.

    The incremental gains in economic development, education, nutrition and health care of recent decades have been reversed very quickly. Three-quarters of the population is now living a subsistence existence.

    Many young people are fleeing abroad, joining resistance groups, or eking out dangerous livelihoods on the margins. To make matters worse, the junta activated a longstanding but dormant conscription law last February to boost its dwindling forces. Those who refuse the draft face five years in prison.

    In response to the Arakan Army’s successes, the junta is also isolating much of Rakhine State. This is contributing to widespread poverty and a looming famine, which could affect two million people.

    And in an attempt to control the digital space, the junta enacted a sweeping new cybersecurity law earlier this month. People can now be imprisoned for using a virtual private network or sharing information from banned websites, among many other offences.

    Could Myanmar fall apart?

    The ASEAN regional bloc, chaired by Malaysia this year, has done little to solve the crisis, although it hasn’t accepted the junta’s hollow plans to hold elections this year.

    Disagreements among the ASEAN members over strategy have ensured that little progress has been made. Thailand recently broke ranks to invite the junta’s foreign minister to regional talks about border security, even though the junta currently controls few of the country’s borders.

    An accelerated economic deterioration could contribute to further unrest and drive even more migrants to neighbouring countries. Already, the millions of Myanmar migrants living in Thailand have precipitated anti-migrant protests and mass arrests.

    So, given the combustible state of the country, could the junta’s hold on power suddenly collapse like the Assad regime in Syria last year?

    It’s not likely. Unlike Syria, the opposition in Myanmar is not heavily backed by major international players. China’s support for various insurgent actors comes and goes depending on political calculations, while the United States and European Union have provided little material support.

    In addition, the military has been effectively running Myanmar for 60 years and is well practised in counterinsurgency strategies. Although defections from the military continue, the conscription law is bolstering its numbers of – mostly reluctant – soldiers.

    However, the fall of Syria’s oppressive government – as well as the government in Myanmar’s neighbour, Bangladesh – demonstrates how fragile long-standing regimes can be, particularly when faced with persistent challenges from armed groups and a motivated population.

    And as in Syria, there are fears – particularly within China – that Myanmar could splinter along ethnic lines. The deteriorating security situation has led China to send its own private security corporations to secure its strategic investments in the country and become an active ceasefire deal-maker.

    Even if the junta can be ousted, creating a workable federal system that involves power-sharing among the complex patchwork of ethnic groups will be a difficult task. The question of how to reintegrate nearly a million Rohingya displaced across the border in Bangladesh is another daunting challenge.

    However, for the first time in years, there is optimism that opposition forces could eventually succeed in vanquishing the junta. Then begins the arduous task of rebuilding a shattered nation.

    As a pro vice-chancellor at the University of Tasmania, Nicholas Farrelly engages with a wide range of organisations and stakeholders on educational, cultural and political issues, including at the ASEAN-Australia interface. He has previously received funding from the Australian government for Southeast Asia-related projects and from the Australian Research Council. Nicholas is on the advisory board of the ASEAN-Australia Centre, which is a new Australian government body, and also deputy chair of the board of NAATI, Australia’s government-owned accreditation authority for translators and interpreters. He writes in his personal capacity.

    Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As the Myanmar junta’s hold on power weakens, could the devastating war be nearing a conclusion? – https://theconversation.com/as-the-myanmar-juntas-hold-on-power-weakens-could-the-devastating-war-be-nearing-a-conclusion-247987

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Babies as young as 4 months can tell how the sounds of different languages are made – new research

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eylem Altuntas, Postdoctoral Researcher, Speech & Language Development, The MARCS Institute for Brain, Behaviour and Development, Western Sydney University

    Colin Maynard/Unsplash

    Babies are like little detectives, constantly piecing together clues about the world around them. If you’ve ever noticed your baby staring at you while you talk, it’s because they’re picking up on more than just sounds — they’re learning how those sounds are made.

    Our recent study, published in Developmental Science, shows this amazing process starts as early as four months old, shaking up the old belief that babies learn these patterns only after tuning in to their native language between 6 and 12 months of age.

    It also gives us an earlier window to help children who might be at risk of speech or language delays.

    Sorting through a buffet of sounds

    By their first birthday, babies are already fine-tuning their ears to the sounds of their native language in a process called perceptual attunement. Think of it like their brain sorting through a buffet of sounds to focus on the ones that matter most.

    But in their first six months, babies can tell apart sounds from languages they’ve never even heard. For example, they might distinguish certain Hindi contrasts that are challenging for adult English speakers or identify unique tones in Mandarin, even if they’re growing up in an English-speaking household.

    This incredible ability doesn’t last forever. Between six and 12 months, babies start narrowing their focus to the sounds they hear most often. For vowels, this fine-tuning kicks in at around six months while consonants follow at closer to ten months.

    Think of it as babies zooming in on the sounds that matter, such as the difference between the “r” and “l” in English, while losing sensitivity to sounds they don’t hear regularly.

    Until now, researchers thought this narrowing process was needed for babies to start learning more complex language skills, such as figuring out that the “b” in “bin” and the “d” in “din” differ because one is made with the lips and the other with the tongue tip.

    But our study found babies as young as four months are already learning how sounds are physically made, long before this narrowing begins.

    In their first six months, babies can tell apart sounds from languages they’ve never even heard.
    Mila Supinskaya Glashchenko/Shutterstock

    Learning mini-languages

    Here’s an example to picture this. Imagine you’re listening to someone speak a language you don’t know. Even if you don’t understand the words, you might notice how their lips or tongue move to make sounds. Four-month-old babies can do this too.

    To demonstrate this, we conducted an experiment with 34 babies, aged four to six months, whose parents had provided consent to participate. We created a “match-the-pattern” game using two made up mini-languages.

    One language had words with lip sounds like “b” and “v”, while the other used tongue-tip sounds like “d” and “z”. Each word, like “bivawo” or “dizalo”, was paired with a cartoon image — a jellyfish for lip words and a crab for tongue-tip words. A recording of a word was played at the same time its paired image was shown.

    Why cartoons? Because babies can’t exactly tell us what they’re thinking, but they can form associations in their brains. These images helped us see if the babies could link each mini-language to the correct picture.

    After the babies learned these mini-languages and their picture pairings, we mixed things up.

    Instead of hearing the words, they watched silent videos of a person’s face saying new words from the same mini-languages.

    In some videos, the face matched the cartoon they had learned earlier. In others, it didn’t. We then tracked how long the babies looked at the videos — a common method researchers use to see what grabs their attention. Babies tend to look longer at things that surprise or interest them and shorter at things they find familiar, helping us understand how they process and recognise what they see.

    The results were clear: babies looked significantly longer at the videos where the face matched what they’d learned. This showed they weren’t just passively listening earlier — they were actively learning the rules of the mini-languages and linking that knowledge to what they saw.

    The experiment involved pairing certain words with a cartoon image of a jellyfish and a crab.
    Eylem Altuntas

    Connecting the dots

    In simple terms, this means four-month-old babies can connect the dots between sound and sight. This early ability to spot patterns in how sounds are made is the foundation for learning language later on. It’s like their brains are already laying the groundwork for saying their first words.

    This discovery changes what we thought we knew about babies’ early language learning. It suggests babies start figuring out patterns at four months, well before they begin perceptually attuning to the sounds of their native language between six and 12 months.

    That opens up exciting new possibilities for helping children who might struggle with speech or language. If we can help earlier, we might make a big difference.

    These findings raise several interesting questions. For example, can babies learn other differences such as voicing – whether a sound is made with a buzzing vibration, like the difference between “b” (buzzing) and “p” (no buzzing) – as early as four months? How does growing up in a bilingual home affect this ability? Could babies use this skill to learn patterns in entirely new languages?

    By exploring these questions, we’ll keep uncovering the amazing ways babies’ brains set the stage for learning one of the most complex human skills: language.

    Eylem Altuntas is a researcher at the BabyLab within the MARCS Institute for Brain, Behaviour, and Development at Western Sydney University.

    – ref. Babies as young as 4 months can tell how the sounds of different languages are made – new research – https://theconversation.com/babies-as-young-as-4-months-can-tell-how-the-sounds-of-different-languages-are-made-new-research-248225

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: When news is stressful, how do you balance staying informed with ‘doomscrolling’?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Harrison, Lecturer in Digital Communications, Flinders University

    Mart Production/Pexels

    It all begins innocently – a late-night peek at your favourite social media site before bed. You catch a headline that grabs your attention with “breaking news” you can’t afford to miss.

    Like following digital breadcrumbs, one click leads to another. Before you know it, you’re tumbling down a rabbit hole of endless updates and emotionally charged social media posts. Two hours later, your shoulders are tense, your stomach is in knots, but you can’t put your phone down.

    This endless scrolling through bad news – known as “doomscrolling” – sneaks up on us.

    It’s important to stay in touch with what’s happening in the world. Being informed helps us make better decisions, engage meaningfully in our communities, and respond effectively to changes that affect our lives and those around us.

    But just like a healthy diet, we must be smart about our news consumption to avoid it taking a toll on our health.

    The good news is there are proven ways to stay informed without letting it take over your life. Research shows setting clear boundaries around your news consumption can make a huge difference. So, how can you strike the right balance?

    How to set boundaries with news consumption

    It’s worth considering why you feel compelled to stay constantly informed. Ask yourself: “will this information change what I can do about it?”.

    Often, we scroll not because the information is actionable, but because we are trying to gain a sense of control in an uncertain world.

    Research shows scrolling through negative news can disrupt your sleep and increase anxiety. To make sure your media consumption is intentional, there are a few steps you can take.

    Be picky with the news sources you read. Choose a few trusted outlets instead of letting social media algorithms decide what you see. It’s like sticking to a balanced meal plan, but for your mind.

    While engaging with the news, pay close attention to how you’re feeling. When you notice physical signs of anxiety or emotional distress, that is your cue to take a break.

    Set aside time earlier in the day with clear boundaries around your news consumption: maybe with your morning coffee or during your lunch break, whatever works for your schedule. Consider implementing a “digital sunset”, too. This is a cut-off time for news and social media, ideally an hour or two before bedtime, to give your mind time to process what you have learned without disrupting your sleep.

    The world will always be there, but you will be in a better head space to process what is happening.

    You don’t have to feel helpless

    Taking breaks from consuming news is not burying your head in the sand – it’s practising self care. Studies have shown that people who set healthy boundaries around news consumption are often better equipped to engage meaningfully on important issues and take constructive action when needed.

    When you check the news, be an active consumer. Instead of endless scrolling:

    • choose one or two in-depth articles to read thoroughly

    • discuss the news with colleagues, friends and family to process your feelings

    • look for solution-focused news stories that highlight positive change

    • take meaningful action on issues you care about.

    There are also various apps and tools that can help you form healthier digital habits. Productivity apps use various approaches to help you stay focused, providing ways to snap you out of mindless scrolling.

    News curation apps and apps that allow you to save articles to read later can help you establish a balanced news diet, and remove the urgent need to read everything immediately.

    Many smartphones now come equipped with screen time management features, such as Apple’s Screen Time or Android’s Digital Wellbeing. You can use these to monitor your scrolling habits and to manage how much time you spend on social media or news apps.

    One useful feature is to block apps from use during certain times of day or after you’ve used them for a set amount of time.

    Screen time management features allow you to pause or block apps from use.
    The Conversation

    Stay mindful, stay engaged

    Staying informed doesn’t mean staying constantly connected. By mindfully setting boundaries and using supportive tools, you can keep up with important events while protecting your wellbeing.

    If you’re trying productivity apps and other tools, start small. Choose one tool that resonates with you rather than trying everything at once. Set realistic goals that fit your life, and use these apps’ insights to understand your habits better.

    Pay attention to what triggers your doomscrolling and adjust your settings accordingly. Remember, these tools work best when combined with offline activities you enjoy.

    The goal isn’t to disconnect completely, but to find a sustainable balance between staying informed and maintaining peace of mind. With thoughtful boundaries and the right support tools, you can stay engaged with the world while keeping your mental health intact.

    Lisa Harrison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When news is stressful, how do you balance staying informed with ‘doomscrolling’? – https://theconversation.com/when-news-is-stressful-how-do-you-balance-staying-informed-with-doomscrolling-248017

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Lessons from Ireland: How the country’s electoral system would strengthen Canadian democracy

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Seána Glennon, Postdoctoral Fellow, Constitutional Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Justin Trudeau’s biggest regret, he said at his resignation news conference, is failing to achieve electoral reform in Canada — even though he’d promised to do so, and had the opportunity during his first majority government, and didn’t go through with it.

    But as a federal election looms this year, it’s a good time to take a closer look at Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system, examine why it’s seen by many as unfair and to think about how an alternative system, like Ireland’s proportional representation model, could better serve Canadians.

    Canada has what’s known as a single-member plurality electoral system, commonly referred to as first-past-the-post. The country is divided into electoral districts called ridings, each of which has one representative.

    The winning candidate in each riding is the one who receives the most votes, although not necessarily the majority of votes. The system is “winner-takes-all” because only those candidates who come first in each riding gain a seat in Parliament.



    Read more:
    Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system highlights once again the need for reform

    Proportional represention

    Ireland has a proportional representation system that’s very different from first-past-the-post. Each voter has a single transferable vote, and each constituency elects several candidates. Voters can rank all the candidates on the ballot in order of their preference.

    To be successful, a candidate must reach the constituency’s quota, which is calculated based on the total number of votes and the number of seats. When a candidate reaches or exceeds the quota on the first count, they are elected, and their surplus votes are distributed among the other candidates, based on voters’ second or lower preferences.

    If nobody reaches the quota on the first count, as often happens, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and their votes are distributed among the other candidates. The process continues until all seats are filled.

    Risks to Canadian democracy

    Canada’s system poses two major challenges to democracy.

    The first is voter disengagement. Under the first-past-the-post system, a candidate does not need to win more than 50 per cent of the votes; they just need to win more than their opponents. All the votes cast in favour of other candidates are discounted.

    This can result in a significant disparity between a party’s share of votes and its share of seats in Parliament.

    A party with less than 50 per cent of the vote share can form a majority government and dominate the parliamentary agenda until the next election.

    This happened in the United Kingdom’s 2024 election (also a first-past-the-post system) — Labour received only 34 per cent of the popular vote, but took 63 per cent of the seats in British Parliament and formed a majority government. The 2019 election in Canada also illustrates the distortion produced by this system — the Conservatives won the popular vote, but the Liberals took 36 more seats and won a minority government.

    From the voter’s point of view, it’s easy to see how the system causes disillusionment. If they vote for anyone other than the winning candidate, they may feel their vote is discounted and will have no bearing on the makeup of Parliament, and wonder what’s the point of casting a ballot.

    The second challenge exacerbated by the first-past-the-post system is increasing polarization in politics. In a winner-takes-all system, there is no incentive for candidates to try to appeal to voters to become their second or third choice. This leads to a much more adversarial style of politics.

    Malaise, polarization reduced

    The Irish system mitigates against both democratic malaise and political polarization.

    Under proportional representation, the voter’s first preference is always counted. But in contrast to the Canadian system, even if their first-choice candidate is eliminated — or elected on the first count with a surplus — their vote is not wasted. Instead, it’s transferred to their next choice of candidate.

    These transfers often determine the outcome of the election. Elections in Ireland tend to produce parliaments that correlate much more closely to the proportion of votes a party has received than under first-past-the-post systems in Canada and the U.K.

    In addition, the Irish system helps combat polarization, because candidates’ success or failure often hinges on their ability to attract transfers from supporters of other parties. Centrist candidates will be more likely to appeal to a broader base of voters and attract more transfers than candidates that seek to motivate a base of voters with extremist rhetoric.

    The recent Irish general election shows how this system helps avoid excessive polarization. Research has found that countries with proportional representation systems tend to have lower levels of polarization.

    Local focus?

    It’s sometimes argued that proportional representation encourages parliamentarians to focus on issues in their constituency rather than national issues.

    The system greatly facilitates the election of independent candidates. The incoming Irish government, for example, will consist of a coalition of the two main centrist parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with the support of a group of independents, some of whom make no secret that their priority is their own constituency.

    It can be argued, however, that responsiveness to local issues isn’t a negative — and it’s not prevented Ireland from playing an outsize role on the international stage in recent years.



    Read more:
    Irish election: why one single party is unlikely to win – and what it means for the next government

    Confronting Trump

    Supporters of first-past-the-post argue that it produces stronger, more stable majority governments.

    Even though Ireland’s party system has undoubtedly become more fragmented over the past decade, however, coalition governments have proved capable of staying the course.

    Of course, Irish politics has its share of challenges. The recent election of Micheál Martin as Taoiseach (prime minister) was delayed a day after rancorous exchanges in Irish Parliament around opposition speaking time, and the country still has a stubbornly low proportion of female parliamentarians (only three women were appointed to the new cabinet as senior ministers, out of 15).

    But this doesn’t change the fact that a proportional representation system still produces a parliament more reflective of voter’s choices than first-past-the-post.

    Politically disengaged and polarized voters in Canada and an unrepresentative Parliament won’t help the country respond to the challenges posed by the next four years of a second Donald Trump presidency.

    A new system with an element of proportionality could help curb polarization, ensure fairer representation for Canadians and transform Canadian democracy for the better.

    Seána Glennon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Lessons from Ireland: How the country’s electoral system would strengthen Canadian democracy – https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-ireland-how-the-countrys-electoral-system-would-strengthen-canadian-democracy-247541

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Global wildlife trade is an enormous market – a look at the billions of animals the US imports from nearly 30,000 species

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael Tlusty, Professor of Sustainability and Food Solutions, UMass Boston

    U.S. Fish and Wildlife agents inspect a shipment of reptiles at the Port of Miami. U.S. GAO

    When people think of wildlife trade, they often picture smugglers sneaking in rare and endangered species from far-off countries. Yet most wildlife trade is actually legal, and the United States is one of the world’s biggest wildlife importers.

    New research that we and a team of colleagues published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that, over the last 22 years, people in the U.S. legally imported nearly 2.85 billion individual animals representing almost 30,000 species.

    Some of these wild animals become pets, such as reptiles, spiders, clownfish, chimpanzees and even tigers. Thousands end up in zoos and aquariums, where many species on display come directly from the wild.

    Medical research uses macaque monkeys and imports up to 39,000 of them every year. The fashion trade imports around 1 million to 2 million crocodile skins every year. Hunting trophies are also included in wildlife.

    How many species are legally traded worldwide?
    Benjamin Marshall, et al., 2024, PNAS, CC BY-SA

    The largest number of imported species are birds – 4,985 different species are imported each year, led by Muscovy ducks, with over 6 million imported. Reptiles are next, with 3,048 species, led by iguanas and royal pythons. These largely become pets.

    Not all wildlife are wild

    We found that just over half of the animals imported into the U.S. come from the wild.

    Capturing wildlife to sell to exporters can be an important income source for rural communities around the world, especially in Africa. However, wild imported species can also spread diseases or parasites or become invasive. In fact, these risks are so worrying that many imported animals are classed as “injurious wildlife” due to their potential role in transmitting diseases to native species.

    Captive breeding has played an increasingly dominant role in recent years as a way to limit the impact on wild populations and to try to reduce disease spread.

    However over half the individual animals from most groups of species, such as amphibians or mammals, still come from the wild, and there is no data on the impact of the wildlife trade on most wild populations.

    Trade may pose a particular risk when species are already rare or have small ranges. Where studies have been done, the wild populations of traded species decreased by an average of 62% across the periods monitored.

    Sustainable wildlife trade is possible, but it relies on careful monitoring to balance wild harvest and captive breeding.

    Data is thin in many ways

    For most species in the wildlife trade, there is still a lot that remains unknown, including even the number of species traded.

    With so many species and shipments, wildlife inspectors are overwhelmed. Trade data may not include the full species name for groups like butterflies or fish. The values in many customs databases are reported by companies but never verified.

    Macaques, used in medical research, are the most-traded primates globally, according to an analysis of U.S. Fish and Wildlife data.
    Davidvraju, CC BY-SA

    In our study, we relied on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Law Enforcement Management Information System, a wildlife import-export data collection system. However, few countries collate and release data in such a standardized way; meaning that for the majority of species legally traded around the world there is no available data.

    For example, millions of Tokay geckos are imported as pets and for medicine, and are often reported to be bred in captivity. However, investigators cannot confirm that they weren’t actually caught in the wild.

    Why tracking the wildlife trade is important

    Biodiversity has a great number of economic and ecological benefits. There are also risks to importing wildlife. Understanding the many species and number of animals entering the country, and whether they were once wild or farmed, is important, because imported wildlife can cause health and ecological problems.

    Wildlife can spread diseases to humans and to other animals. Wild-caught monkeys imported for medical research may carry diseases, including ones of particular risk to humans. Those with diseases are more likely to be wild than captive-bred.

    The most-traded mammals worldwide are minks, which are valued for their fur but can spread viruses to humans and other species. About 48 million minks are legally traded annually, about 2.8% wild-caught and the majority raised, according to U.S. Fish and Wildlife data.
    Colin Canterbury/USFWS

    Species that aren’t native to the U.S. may also escape or be released into the wild. Invasive species can cause billions of dollars in damage by consuming and outcompeting native wildlife and spreading diseases.

    We believe better data on the wildlife trade could be used to set management goals, such as harvest quotas or no-take policies for those species in their country of origin.

    What’s next

    The researchers involved in this study come from institutes around the world and are all interested in improving data systems for wildlife trade.

    Some of us focus on how e-commerce platforms such as Etsy and Instagram have become hotspots of wildlife trade and can be challenging to monitor without automation. Esty announced in 2024 that it would remove listings of endangered or threatened species. Others build tools to help wildlife inspectors process the large number of shipments in real time. Many of us examine the problems imported species cause when they become invasive.

    In the age of machine learning, artificial intelligence and big data, it’s possible to better understand the wildlife trade. Consumers can help by buying less, and making informed decisions.

    Michael Tlusty is a founding member of the Wildlife Detection Partnership and co-developed the Nature Intelligence System, which assists governments in collecting more accurate wildlife data..

    Andrew Rhyne is currently on sabbatical funded by the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), focused on the wildlife trade data. He is a founding member of the Wildlife Detection Partnership and co-developed the Nature Intelligence System, which assists governments in collecting more accurate wildlife data.

    Alice Catherine Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Global wildlife trade is an enormous market – a look at the billions of animals the US imports from nearly 30,000 species – https://theconversation.com/global-wildlife-trade-is-an-enormous-market-a-look-at-the-billions-of-animals-the-us-imports-from-nearly-30-000-species-247197

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to get control of your time

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Boróka Bó, Assistant Professor in Sociology, University College Dublin

    GoodStudio/Shutterstock

    You wake up at 7:00 and reflexively reach for your phone. Between the stream of emails, WhatsApps and breaking news alerts, you see a worrying reminder: you averaged 11 hours of daily screen time last week. You swipe the notification away and open TikTok, where a woman in a matching athleisure set and glossy, slicked-back ponytail urges you to “get ready with me for my 5-9 before my 9-5”.

    You think about getting out of bed for a workout or meditation before you start answering those emails. But before you know it, it’s 8:57 – and if you don’t get off the apps and onto your computer, you’ll be late.

    Sound familiar? Though many people have more leisure time now than in the past, paradoxically, more free time comes with increased time pressure. For many of us, it feels as if we don’t have control over our time – rather, time is controlling us. This is because our collective experience of time both comes from and governs society.

    Instead of saving us time, the pace of modernity has led to many of us feeling as if our time is slipping away. And any time we “gain back”, we devote – by necessity or choice – to making more money, maybe through a side hustle. Losing control over time can have negative consequences for both physical and mental wellbeing.

    Ready to make a change? The Quarter Life Glow-up is a new, six-week newsletter course from The Conversation’s UK and Canada editions.

    Every week, we’ll bring you research-backed advice and tools to help improve your relationships, your career, your free time and your mental health – no supplements or skincare required. Sign up here to start your glow-up at any time.

    We are trapped in a perpetual cycle of rushing to survive and consume. But consumption also takes time, so the time available to enjoy our newly acquired possessions declines. You buy a faster new computer, but then need to spend multiple, frustrating hours configuring it to your preferences.

    Even trying to save time by mastering a productivity hack or reading a self-help book takes (you guessed it) time.

    As time use researchers, we often grapple with an uncomfortable truth – your time is not fully yours – it belongs to us all. Time is a network good. We live in a web of time: giving, taking and sharing time with everyone around us. In other words, the decisions and actions of the people around you shape how much time you have.

    This presents a catch-22. Friends, family, colleagues and even neighbours require our time, and we need theirs, too. We share time with our social network members because we need strong ties for our wellbeing. However, building lasting relationships means that we have to control our time in order to share it with others.

    Unfortunately, we don’t all have the same amount of control. Socioeconomic and demographic factors – gender, financial circumstances, age, race, and where you live – all influence how you can make decisions about time. These factors shape how we can interact with others.

    Are you controlling your time, or is it controlling you?
    Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock

    Even seemingly mundane choices, such as how many extra minutes of sleep you give yourself in the morning, are shaped by societal expectations, power structures and economic constraints. If your job starts at 8am and your commute is two hours, it is unlikely that you can afford extra time to sleep in the mornings. If you are a parent, you might have to wake up even earlier to make sure that everyone has their breakfast and lunch packed for school.

    This is why the hundreds of self-help articles telling you how to optimise your time by carefully budgeting every minute of it never manage to give you full control.

    Breaking this vicious cycle starts with understanding, then practising self-compassion in the face of the demands on your time.

    Get in control

    Gaining control over your time starts with “why”. We don’t all have the luxury of saying no to tasks we deem unnecessary or unpleasant.

    We can, however, ask ourselves why we are spending our time on certain things. Before your next decision, big or small, try asking yourself: why am I doing this?

    If the answer is rooted in social pressure, outdated norms, or an obligation toward someone who does not deserve the gift of your precious time, consider how you could switch to doing something else.

    Try to spend your time on activities and with people who nourish you, enriching your moments. You may not be able to completely avoid spending part of your time as your boss dictates. But understanding the larger power dynamics shaping your personal situation and your time will help you approach decisions with conscious intention, giving you greater control over this irreplaceable resource.

    Regularly questioning the reason behind your actions will reveal the social patterns driving your decision-making processes. Why did you agree to do something, only to regret it later? Why are you always the one donating time to emotional labour at the office?

    Consistently asking “why” creates a habit of mindfulness, and will give you the insight needed to begin to make more informed choices that reflect your true priorities. Ultimately, gaining more control over your time is not about rigidly adhering to a schedule or productivity hacks. It is impossible to subject every minute of your existence to your will – time is not yours to hold on to.

    But you can make the most of the time you do have control over by making conscious decisions that align with your own desires and goals. Like one of our research participants, you may soon find yourself looking in the mirror and proclaiming: “I love time! Time lets me become!”

    Boróka Bó receives funding from Enterprise Ireland. She has previously received funding from the National Science Foundation and held a Soros Fellowship.

    Kamila Kolpashnikova receives funding from SSHRC (Insight Grant number: 435-2023-1060).

    – ref. How to get control of your time – https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-control-of-your-time-235801

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rereading Rembrandt: how the slave trade helped establish the golden age of Dutch painting

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Caroline Fowler, Starr Director of the Research and Academic Program, Clark Art Institute, and lecturer in Art History, Williams College

    Detail from Rembrandt van Rijn’s painting Two African Men. Sailko/The Mauritshuis/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

    The so-called golden age of Dutch painting in the 1600s coincided with an economic boom that had a lot to do with the transatlantic slave trade. But how did the slave trade shape the art market in the Netherlands? And how is it reflected in the paintings of the time?

    This is the subject of a new book called Slavery and the Invention of Dutch Art by art historian Caroline Fowler. We asked about her study.

    What was Dutch art about before slavery and what was the golden age?

    The earliest paintings that would be called Dutch were predominantly religious. They were made for Christian devotion. In the 1500s, major divisions in the church led to a fragmentation of Christianity called the Reformation.

    In this new religious climate, artists began to create new types of paintings, studying the world around them. They included landscapes, seascapes, still lifes, and interior scenes of their homes. Instead of working for the church, many painters began to work within an art market. There was a rising middle class that could afford to buy paintings.

    Historically, this period in Dutch economic prosperity has been called the “golden age”. This is when many of the most famous Dutch painters worked, such as Rembrandt van Rijn and Johannes Vermeer.

    Their work was made possible by a strong Dutch economy built on global trade networks. This included the transatlantic slave trade and the rise of the middle class. Although artists did not directly paint the transatlantic slave trade, in my book I argue that it is central to understanding the paintings produced in the 1600s as it made the economic market possible.

    In turn, many of the types of painting that developed, like maritime scenes and interior scenes, are often obliquely or directly about international trade. The slave trade is a haunting presence in these images.

    How did this play out within Dutch colonialism?

    The new “middle class” consisted of economically prosperous merchants, artisans, lawyers and doctors. For many of the wealthiest merchants, their prosperity was fuelled by their investments in trade overseas. In land and plantations, and also commodities such as sugar, salt, mace and nutmeg.



    Read more:
    Slavery, tax evasion, resistance: the story of 11 Africans in South America’s gold mines in the 1500s

    Slavery was illegal within the boundaries of the Dutch Republic on the European continent. But it was widely practised within Dutch colonies around the world. Slavery was central to their trade overseas – from the inter-Asian slave network that made possible their domination in the export of nutmeg, to the use of enslaved labour on plantations in the Americas. It also contributed in less visible ways to Dutch economic prosperity, like the development of maritime insurance.

    What was the relationship between artists and Dutch colonies?

    In the new school of painting, artists would sometimes travel to the Dutch colonies. For example, Frans Post travelled to Dutch Brazil and painted the sugar plantations and mills. Another artist named Maria Sibylla Merian went to Dutch Suriname, where she studied butterflies and plants on the Dutch sugar plantations.

    Both depict landscapes and the natural world but don’t directly engage with the profound dehumanisation of slavery, and an economic system dependent on enslaved labour. But this doesn’t mean that it’s absent in their sanitised renditions.

    Among the sources that I used to think about the presence of the transatlantic slave trade in a culture that did not overtly depict it were inventories of paintings and early museum collections. Often the language in these sources differed from the painting in important ways. They demonstrate how the violence of the system emerges in unexpected places.

    One inventory that describes paintings by Frans Post, for example, also narrates the physical punishment meted out if the enslaved tried to run away from the Dutch sugar plantations. This isn’t depicted in the painting, but it is part of the inventory that travelled beside the painting.

    These moments reveal the profound presence of this system within Dutch painting, and point to the ways in which artists negotiated making this structure invisible in their paintings although they were not able to completely erase its presence.

    How do you discuss Rembrandt’s paintings in your book?

    Historically, studies of the transatlantic slave trade in early modern painting (about 1400-1700) have looked at paintings that directly depict either enslaved or Black individuals.

    One of the points of this book is that this limits our understanding of the transatlantic slave trade in Dutch painting. A focus on blackness, for example, precludes understanding how whiteness is constructed at the same time. It fails to recognise the ways in which artists sought to diminish the presence of the slave trade in their sanitised rendition of Dutch society.

    One painting that I use to think about this is Rembrandt van Rijn’s very famous work called Syndics of the Draper’s Guild. It’s a group portrait of wealthy, white merchants gathered around a table looking at a book of fabric samples.

    Although there aren’t enslaved or black individuals depicted, this painting would be impossible without the transatlantic slave trade. Cloth from the Netherlands was often exchanged for enslaved people in west Africa, for example.

    In my book, I draw attention to these understudied histories to understand how certain assumptions around whiteness, privilege, and wealth developed in tandem with an emerging visual vocabulary around blackness and the transformation of individual lives into chattel property.

    What do you hope readers will take away from the book?

    I hope that readers will think about how many of our ideas about freedom, the middle class, art markets, and economic prosperity began in the 17th-century Dutch Republic. As this book demonstrates, a central part of this narrative that has been overlooked was the transatlantic slave trade in building this fantasy.

    This is in many ways an invention that traces back to the paintings of overt consumption and wealth produced in the Dutch Republic – like Vermeer’s interiors of Dutch homes.



    Read more:
    How we proved a Rembrandt painting owned by the University of Pretoria was a fake

    My aim with this book is to present not only a more complex view of Dutch painting but also a reconsideration of certain dogmas today around prosperity and the art market. The rise of our current financial system, art markets and visible celebration of landscapes, seascapes and interior scenes are all inseparable from the transformation of individual lives into property. We live with this legacy today in our systems built on racial, economic and gendered inequalities.

    Caroline Fowler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Rereading Rembrandt: how the slave trade helped establish the golden age of Dutch painting – https://theconversation.com/rereading-rembrandt-how-the-slave-trade-helped-establish-the-golden-age-of-dutch-painting-247918

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cameroon could do with some foreign help to solve anglophone crisis – but the state doesn’t want it

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Julius A. Amin, Professor of History, University of Dayton

    What began in late 2016 as a peaceful protest by lawyers and teachers in Cameroon’s North West and South West regions quickly turned violent and developed into what’s become known as Cameroon’s anglophone crisis.

    The protest was instigated by perceived marginalisation of Cameroon’s anglophone region, which makes up 20% of the nation’s 29 million people.

    The conflict has resulted in immense destruction and casualties. Cameroon’s military responded to the protest with arrests and torture. Voices that called for complete secession of the anglophone regions from the Republic of Cameroon gained momentum.

    They created a virtual Ambazonia Republic and an interim government in exile, and vowed to fight back. They formed a military wing, Ambazonia Self-Defence Force, which attacked and disrupted economic and social services in the region.

    As of October 2024, over 1.8 million people have needed humanitarian assistance. Over 584,000 have been internally displaced. Over 73,000 have become refugees in next-door Nigeria. Over 6,500 have been killed.



    Read more:
    Cameroon: how language plunged a country into deadly conflict with no end in sight

    And the conflict still rages.

    One possible avenue that could be pursued to end the impasse is mediation, with help from other countries. But the Cameroonian government has repeatedly rebuffed intervention from organisations such as the African Union, arguing that the conflict is an internal affair.

    It also ended a government-sponsored mediation by the Swiss in 2022.

    It is clear to me, as a historian who has studied Cameroon foreign policy for the past three decades, that Cameroon’s leadership will not look to external actors to help solve their crisis.

    Founding leader Ahmadou Ahidjo, and later his successor Paul Biya, did not respond to external pressure to address issues. Cameroon’s diplomatic relations are based on respect of national sovereignty and nonintervention in each other’s internal affairs.

    My research shows that the Cameroonian leadership rejects outside intervention on issues it regards as within its sovereignty and internal affairs.

    Removing Cameroon from aid programmes such as the United States Agency for International Development programme and the African Growth and Opportunity Act has not deterred its leaders.

    An understanding of this background is crucial in the search for solutions to the ongoing anglophone crisis.



    Read more:
    Cameroon spends 90% of Chinese development loans on its French region: this could deepen the country’s divisions

    Use of force

    In the 1960s, Ahidjo used brutal force against a nationalist organisation called the Maquisard. His presidency was characterised by murders, imprisonments and torture.

    Political rivals were imprisoned or forced to go into exile. Biya, who served in Ahidjo’s government, learned that repressive measures work. As president, he used similar tactics against rivals and the opposition.

    But the use of force as a response to the anglophone protest was a miscalculation. The Biya regime failed to see the crisis in its context of changing times, misunderstood the sources of the conflict, and misread the role of social media in protest activities in the 21st century.

    The crisis originated from a series of grievances: poverty, unemployment, political and economic neglect of the anglophone region, failure to treat French and English as equal languages in the country, and disrespect and disregard of English-speaking Cameroonians.

    At the beginning protesters were generally peaceful, but things changed in 2017. Biya stated that Cameroon was being hijacked by “terrorists masking as secessionists” and vowed to eliminate them.

    To anglophone leaders it was a formal declaration of war, and the message spread quickly on social media. The Biya team did little to slow or stop its spread, and anglophones inside and outside the country accepted the message as fact. It mobilised the region. And few took the time to read the full text of his remarks.

    The brutality of the war on both sides intensified. Everything had all happened so quickly, and most did not anticipate the intensity of the violence.



    Read more:
    Cameroon after Paul Biya: poverty, uncertainty and a precarious succession battle

    Resistance to outside intervention

    In its diplomatic relations, Cameroon has a long history of protecting what it sees as its own business.

    One example was in 1992, after the US administration criticised Biya for electoral fraud. The Cameroon government fired back. Biya withdrew Cameroon’s ambassador from Washington DC, and informed the US ambassador that America should stay clear of Cameroon’s internal affairs.

    In 2008, tension erupted again when Biya changed Cameroon’s constitution to eliminate presidential term limits. The US ambassador criticised the move in the Cameroonian press. Again, Cameroonian officials pushed back, asking the ambassador not to interfere in the nation’s internal politics.

    America’s disposition towards the anglophone crisis has been one of non-interference. Other major powers have responded similarly, asking both sides to end the violence.

    The Cameroon government has rebuffed initiatives from Switzerland and Canada, both friendly to the country, publicly stating it asked no nation to mediate.

    The rejection of the Swiss initiative was surprising, given that Biya spends much time in that country. Unlike the Swiss plan, in which conversations began, the Canadian initiative did not even take off.



    Read more:
    Cameroon’s rebels may not achieve their goal of creating the Ambazonian state – but they’re still a threat to stability

    Looking ahead

    Measurable indicators show that the Biya regime is failing to end the anglophone crisis. The killings – including those of law enforcement officers – kidnaps, brutality and ransom demands are now normalised in the anglophone region, especially in rural areas.

    Biya’s Grand National Dialogue and National Commission for the Promotion of Bilingualism and Multiculturalism have failed to address the sources of the crisis. Locals dismiss them as a joke.

    People are exasperated by public service announcements about what the government has achieved. Their condition remains much worse than it was in the pre-crisis period.

    Ordinary people are focused on bread-and-butter issues and the desire for dignity and respect. But they don’t see it.

    Young Cameroonians need to see both anglophone and francophone residents at every level of government, on every rung of the business ladder, in every management position, at every school — even on every billboard advertisement.

    Only such a widespread and visible approach can convincingly challenge Cameroon’s pattern of discrimination and exclusion.

    The Biya regime must commit to doing that and not be distracted by supporters urging him to be a candidate in the upcoming presidential election.

    It is important to track and bring to justice the apparent sponsors of the killings in the country. This must be done while government keeps its promises to make things right for those living in the anglophone regions.

    Finally, given China’s investment in Cameroon, it can do more to engage the Biya regime on the anglophone crisis. Like Cameroon, China’s policy also stipulates a policy of nonintervention, but it has repeatedly changed course when its strategic interests are threatened.

    Major power status demands major responsibilities, and showing the will to stop chronic human rights violations remains an important obligation.

    Julius A. Amin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cameroon could do with some foreign help to solve anglophone crisis – but the state doesn’t want it – https://theconversation.com/cameroon-could-do-with-some-foreign-help-to-solve-anglophone-crisis-but-the-state-doesnt-want-it-244770

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Peace in Sudan: a fresh mediation effort is needed – how it could work

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Gerrit Kurtz, Peace and Conflict Researcher, German Institute for International and Security Affairs

    Intense fighting has ravaged Sudan since 15 April 2023. The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and its erstwhile comrades-in-arms, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has created one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Famine, displacement and mass atrocities are wreaking havoc in the country.

    International mediation efforts have been lacklustre and fruitless. The United Nations security council has been preoccupied with other crises and blocked by its own divisions. The African Union has created diplomatic groups, a high-level panel and a presidential committee, none of which has been particularly active. It has been very slow in tackling the political process it wanted to lead.

    The US and Saudi Arabia convened several rounds of talks, first in Jeddah, then in Switzerland. The Sudanese Armed Forces delegation failed to turn up in Switzerland. The Rapid Support Forces expressed willingness to talk peace, while simultaneously committing sexual and gender-based violence on a massive scale. The Biden administration only lately slapped sanctions on the top leaders of both forces, Abdelfattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti).

    I have studied civil wars, mediation and peacebuilding for more than 12 years, with a focus on Sudan, including regular visits to the country and the region in the past five years. Based on this experience I have identified five reasons why mediation has failed. These are: the resistance of the conflict parties based on the dynamic nature of the war; continued military and financial aid by their external sponsors; as well as mediation attempts that were too narrow, not viewed as impartial, and lacking in coherence.

    Clearly, a new approach to mediation is needed, not simply a new mediator. Turkey has recently offered to lead talks between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the United Arab Emirates, the main backer of the Rapid Support Forces, but Egypt, Kenya and several multilateral organisations also keep looking for opportunities.

    Any new initiative will have to have certain components if it’s going to succeed:

    • political parameters, ideally set by a parallel civilian political process, of what might come next for Sudan should guide mediators

    • negotiations should take place in secret so that trust can be established

    • back channel communications networks must be established with potential spoilers without ceding undue legitimacy to them

    • a gender- and youth-inclusive approach

    • more effective international coordination

    • consistent pressure on the conflict parties and their external backers.

    Why previous mediation efforts failed

    Firstly, neither the Sudanese Armed Forces nor the Rapid Support Forces have shown significant willingness to stop hostilities.

    The military fortunes of the two sides has waxed and waned. As long as either side feels successful militarily, they are unlikely to commit to sincere negotiations. Outright military victory leading to control of the whole territory (and its borders) remains out of reach for all.

    Secondly, their respective allies have not shown any particular interest in peace.

    External actors have provided military support to the warring parties, and helped finance them. The UAE is the main sponsor of the Rapid Support Forces. The Sudanese Armed Forces cooperates with Egypt, Eritrea, Iran and Russia, for arms deliveries and training. The UAE promised the US to stop supporting the Rapid Support Forces, but the arms flows continued.

    Thirdly, some conflict management efforts were based on a flawed conflict analysis. There were attempts to organise a face-to-face meeting between Hemedti and Burhan, by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the African Union. But the war is not primarily a contest of “two generals”. Neither Hemedti nor Burhan has full control of their forces. Nor is a renewed military government acceptable to large parts of Sudan’s vibrant civil society.

    Fourth, mediation efforts suffered because some of the parties saw them as lacking impartiality. Sudanese Armed Forces leaders don’t trust Kenya, whose President William Ruto is closely aligned with the UAE and has, until recently, allowed the Rapid Support Forces to conduct meetings and a press conference in Nairobi. Kenya was supposed to lead the Intergovernmental Authority on Development quartet of mediators, which never really got off the ground. Similarly, Sudan remains suspended from the African Union.

    Finally, there was a competition of mediation platforms, allowing the warring parties to shop for the most convenient forum for them.

    What a path to a ceasefire might look like

    International attention is currently focused on Turkish president Recep Erdogan, who has offered to mediate between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the UAE. The Sudanese Armed Forces has harshly criticised the UAE for its support to the Rapid Support Forces. The offer, then, is based on the assumption the UAE might actually cease that support.

    Any new approach should differ from previous efforts.

    • Mediators should provide a broad sense of political parameters for a post-war (interim) order, ideally with strong input from Sudan’s civilian groups. Those could include a conditional amnesty as well as assurances of personal safety for the top military leaders and of some stake in a transitional period, without promising any blanket impunity or renewed power-sharing.

    But international mediators should grant the warring parties political recognition and legitimacy only in exchange for feasible concessions.

    • Negotiations should take place in secret, allowing confidential exchanges between declared enemies. This is particularly important for the Sudanese Armed Forces given the rivalry among its leadership.

    • Back channel communications should be established to all actors with real constituencies in Sudan, without empowering them unnecessarily. Turkey is well-placed to reach out to senior members of the previous (Bashir) regime who have found exile there. They control large parts of the fighting forces on the side of Sudanese Armed Forces and could prove to be a major spoiler. The armed groups in the so-called “joint forces” would also need to feel somewhat included.

    • Mediators should find ways to include a broad array of civilian actors, in particular women and youth groups. Instead of only targeting “men with guns”, a peace process should be gender-inclusive.

    • Any lead mediator should keep other interested parties such as the EU, the UK, Norway, and the other countries and organisations already mentioned, informed and engaged.

    • Pressure should be kept up by the US, UK and EU on external backers of the two main warring parties, and target both military and financial flows. Policies, including further targeted sanctions, should be as aligned as possible.

    Preparing for a window of opportunity

    There’s no guarantee that the violence would cease even if these conditions were met. The main belligerents are likely to continue their current offensives. The Sudanese Armed Forces will try to oust the Rapid Support Forces from central Khartoum completely. The Rapid Support Forces will keep trying to take El Fasher, the only capital in Darfur not under their control.

    The impending re-capture of Khartoum by the Sudanese Armed Forces may provide an opportunity for a new round of talks, if it comes with consistent international pressure. Mediators should be ready to push for an end to the fighting.

    Gerrit Kurtz is also a non-resident fellow with the Global Public Policy Institute and a member of the Forum New Security Policy of the Heinrich Böll Foundation.

    – ref. Peace in Sudan: a fresh mediation effort is needed – how it could work – https://theconversation.com/peace-in-sudan-a-fresh-mediation-effort-is-needed-how-it-could-work-248330

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Skin-to-skin contact is good for your baby and you – and not just straight after birth

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Viren Swami, Professor of Social Psychology, Anglia Ruskin University

    SvetlanaFedoseyeva/Shutterstock

    In the 1950s, the American psychologist Harry Harlow provided a stark demonstration of the importance of a mother’s touch. He famously – and controversially – showed that rhesus monkeys would rather cling to a surrogate “mother” made of soft cloth than one made of metal wire that provided milk. A loving touch seemed to be more important than food, Harlow concluded.

    Today, the importance of touch has become firmly embedded in infant care. For example, UNICEF and the NHS recommend skin-to-skin contact between a parent and newborn. This involves placing a newborn on a parent’s bare chest, both of them covered in a warm blanket, for at least an hour after birth or until after the first feed.

    In fact, feeling the power of touch begins long before a baby is even born. Touch is the first sense to develop. Just eight weeks after conception, a foetus already responds to the sensation of touch in the womb – and it is crucial for people of any age.

    By 14 weeks, twins have been observed on ultrasound sucking on each other’s fingers and exploring each other’s faces. And frame-by-frame analyses of ultrasound have shown that, by 20 weeks, foetuses respond to mothers touching their bellies.

    The benefits of parental touch become clear at birth. One review of 52 studies involving over 4,000 newborns found that touch interventions – such as skin-to-skin contact and baby massage – was associated with better newborn health, including better regulation of temperature, breathing and heart rate. The review also found that touch was more beneficial when it came from a parent compared to medical staff.

    Cuddle up, because there are other benefits of skin-to-skin contact. When a parent holds their baby in skin-to-skin contact after birth, it helps to calm the newborn and stimulates an interest in feeding. In the longer-term, daily skin-to-skin contact with infants improves sleep patterns and pain tolerance, supports healthy weight gain and continued breastfeeding and strengthens brain development.

    These benefits are also experienced by infants born prematurely. For example, one review of kangaroo care – skin-to-skin contact for premature or low birth-weight infants – found that it reduced the risk of death, infection and low body temperature, and improved weight gain and rates of breastfeeding.

    In both healthy and premature infants, skin-to-skin contact also triggers the release of the hormone oxytocin – the so-called “love hormone” – which encourages bonding between the parent and infant. Skin-to-skin contact also lowers levels of the hormone cortisol, which helps newborns to regulate levels of stress.

    In fact, the benefits of skin-to-skin contact are not exclusively experienced by the newborn. Studies have found that daily skin-to-skin contact with their babies can reduce symptoms of postpartum stress, depression and anxiety in mothers. And while most studies have focused on mothers, skin-to-skin contact also seems to reduce symptoms of depression and anxiety in fathers.

    While most of this research has focused the short-term outcomes of touch, scientists are also following infants over time to see what impact early touch has on long-term outcomes. For example, one study found that premature babies who received at least one hour of kangaroo care for two weeks had better mother-child interactions, sleep and brain development when they were ten years old.

    Another group of researchers followed infants and their mothers for a period of nine years. When they were only one-month-old, infants who had experienced skin-to-skin contact with their mothers already showed better emotional adjustment and attachment than infants who had no skin-to-skin contact.

    Nine years later, these children were also more willing and able to engage in emotive conversations with their mothers.

    Some of the effects of touch are more difficult to quantify. In the 1970s, for example, the psychiatrist Donald Winnicott described how a mother’s touch helps infants and young children to experience the body as “the place where one securely lives”. This idea seems to be supported by ethnographic records and anthropological studies of communities where infants are in close contact with a caregiver.

    For instance, in many communities – such as the Netsilik, !Kung, and Balinese – infants are pressed skin-to-skin with their mothers for much of the day. This means that infants are more likely to have their needs met quickly – being comforted when they cry or fed when they suckle – while also helping them develop a sensitivity to touch. These forms of “skinship” also help parents and their infants to develop deeper bonds through touch.

    While this research shows the benefits of touch in infancy, what about childhood? Studies of young children and adolescents have shown that touch – particularly caring touch like hugging from a parent or other caregivers, such as teachers – can support psychological development and wellbeing. For instance, touch can help children develop a sense of emotional security, belonging and feelings of support, especially in stressful situations.

    The anthropologist Marjorie Goodwin has described how “haptic rituals” – such as hugs between a parent and their child over the course of a day – can help the child feel loved and cared for.

    Regularly experiencing caring touch can also help children to develop their social interaction skills, including empathy toward others. Caring touch also reduces aggressive behaviour in adolescence.

    Unfortunately, even today, many parents hold on to old fashioned ideas – popularised by psychologists like John Watson – that they should avoid caring touch with their children, out of fear that hugging or cuddling will cause their children to become weak willed. The scientific evidence doesn’t support such ideas, so go hug your kids.

    Viren Swami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Skin-to-skin contact is good for your baby and you – and not just straight after birth – https://theconversation.com/skin-to-skin-contact-is-good-for-your-baby-and-you-and-not-just-straight-after-birth-248260

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How people will be ringing in the year of the snake

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sijing Lu, Assistant Professor in Translation and Transcultural Studies, University of Warwick

    SeventyFour/Shutterstock

    Lunar new year is the most important traditional festival for the Chinese people, symbolising unity, prosperity and hope for the future. It is, however, celebrated all over Asia and in the diaspora.

    Unlike, the new year that is celebrated only on December 31 and January 1, lunar new year celebrations begin the month before and end days after the start of the new year.

    In the Chinese tradition, new year celebration begins on the eighth day of the 12th lunar month with the Laba festival (腊八节). On this day, it is customary to eat Laba congee, a porridge which is also known as “eight-treasure congee” because it’s often made with eight or more ingredients. This year the Laba festival fell on January 7.

    The biggest day in this period of celebration is, of course, new year, which this year falls on January 29.

    According to historical records, the Chinese people have been celebrating the lunar new year for over 4,000 years. Around 2,000BC, Shun, an ancient Chinese leader, ascended to the throne and led his followers in a worship ceremony to honour heaven and earth.

    This day was regarded as the beginning of the year, corresponding to the first day of the first lunar month. This event is believed to mark the origin of the lunar new year.

    During this festival, people typically express their hopes for prosperity and health in the coming year through family reunions and ancestor worship. Communities also host traditional activities to celebrate, such as lion dances, the giving of red envelopes, and putting up of spring couplets (pairs of poems written on red paper with black or gold characters), all of which symbolise good fortune and abundance.

    The traditional Chinese lunar new year reunion dinner includes many symbolic dishes. For example, eating fish represents abundance, dumplings symbolise reunion and wealth, and rice cakes signify progress and success.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    But this day isn’t the end of celebrations. Instead, new year is celebrated up until the 15th day of the first lunar month when the lantern festival (元宵节) is celebrated. This festival coincides with the first full moon of the lunar year. On this day reconciliation, peace and forgiveness are sought.

    To celebrate, people will cover their houses with colourful lanterns, often with riddles written on them. Children will go out and try to solve these to win small gifts. There might be lion and dragon dances as well as parades and fireworks. People eat small glutinous rice balls, known as yuanxiao or tangyuan. The round shape symbolises wholeness and unity within the family.

    This year’s lantern festival – and the end of lunar new year celebrations – is on February 12. By this time, we will be well into 2025, which is the year of the snake.

    The year of the snake

    The year of the snake holds profound meaning and special significance in Chinese culture. The animal symbolises wisdom, spirituality, elegance and renewal.

    In Chinese traditions, the snake is also considered a “small dragon” and has a unique presence. Many scholars believe that the basic form of the dragon has evolved from the snake, with the snake’s body forming the main structure of the mythical beast.

    In ancient art, images of dragons and snakes often overlap, with motifs that appear simultaneously dragon-like and snake-like being very common.

    In ancient China, the snake was regarded as a mysterious and powerful creature. Its strong reproductive ability symbolised a continuous lineage and abundant offspring, while its ability to shed its skin and renew itself represented life and longevity. This process of renewal and rebirth highlighted the snake’s connection to cycles of growth and the passage of time.

    Beyond its physical traits, the snake was also revered for its intelligence and adaptability, often being portrayed as a creature of wisdom and strategy.

    These qualities have translated into cultural beliefs about people born in the year of the snake. For instance, for those born in this year, the snake’s flexibility and patience are seen as representing wisdom in problem-solving and overcoming challenges.

    Sijing Lu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How people will be ringing in the year of the snake – https://theconversation.com/how-people-will-be-ringing-in-the-year-of-the-snake-248468

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Southport attacks: why the UK needs a unified approach to all violent attacks on the public

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Barry Richards, Emeritus Professor of Political Psychology, Bournemouth University

    The conviction of Axel Rudakubana for the murder of three young girls in Southport has prompted many questions about how the UK handles violence without a clear ideological motive. This case has also shown up the confusion in this area, and made clear the need for a basic reframing of how we understand murderous violence against the public today.

    The home secretary may be right to keep Prevent focused on violent Islamist and extreme right-wing terror. Yet there needs to be a complementary but distinct strategy to protect against another Southport-style attacker.

    The prime minister, Keir Starmer, has come rather late to his observation that the nature of terrorism has changed. Over four years ago it was becoming clear that the “terrorist” threat was increasingly coming from those with no clear and consistent attachment to any specific ideology, let alone any terrorist organisation.

    This is borne out in the latest data on referrals to the Prevent counter-terrorism scheme. “Mixed, unstable and unclear” ideologies – when added to school massacre fixations and incel cases – outrank both extreme right-wing and Islamist categories.

    Rudakubana had an al-Qaida-linked document in his possession, and had claimed to be a victim of racism. But overall his motive was not at all ideological, but is to be found in his mental ill-health.

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    All the evidence presents him as a profoundly damaged individual who harboured an overwhelming need to inflict deathly violence, unconnected with any political aim. His choice of young children as victims is probably also of psychological significance.

    Thus it may not be quite right to say, as the home secretary Yvette Cooper and others have, that Prevent “failed”. A cluster of agencies do seem collectively to have failed here. But Prevent was not designed to deal with apolitical and apparently random attacks on people unknown to the perpetrator.

    What has failed is the conceptual frame underlying the UK’s counter-terrorism approach, which sees terrorism simply as an ideologically-driven response to the world. This understands it as basically different from attacks which are apparently not ideologically-driven, and so are seen as more idiosyncratic and psychological, like school massacres (though these have come to fall within Prevent’s remit).

    Internal drivers of violence

    However, it is also true that many of those who do have conventional terrorist aims are also driven by forces in their internal worlds.

    While often not given a psychiatric diagnosis, many people who have carried out attacks appear to have been emotionally dysfunctional. Evidence for this goes back at least as far as 9/11, to the personality of the ringleader Mohamed Atta. It has since been accumulating in what is known of many convicted attackers, including those with lengthy ideological rationales, such as Anders Breivik.

    The emergence of “incel” terror has further blurred the distinction between those with an apparent ideological rationale and those with obvious psychological problems.

    At the psychological level, there is no clear separation between lone actor ideological attackers and those who are supposedly non-ideological. Common to all is some disturbance within the self, one requiring the enactment of lethal violence.

    Ironically, the clear presence of psychological factors can also be seen – at a different level – in some of the people involved in the violent riots which occurred in response to the Southport murders. These were, in considerable part, the creation of online agitators, extreme right-wing activists and their bussed-in followers.

    But some who took part were more casual joiners of the riots. These were people of no fixed ideological abode who were drawn by the excitement of the occasion and the opportunity to attack the police and other symbols of social order. The same psychological motive may be attributed to the “Maga tourist” element among the January 2021 invaders of the Capitol building in Washington DC.

    Protecting the public

    Such problems of group-based violence in public spaces may be amenable to primarily political and policy solutions (albeit very difficult ones to achieve). However, individuals who may suddenly erupt into violence, ideological or not, are even more difficult to identify, assess, monitor and contain.

    The first step towards better protecting the public should be to recognise the psychological drivers of all such attacks. These include a preoccupation with grievance, often linked to a powerful sense of humiliation and psychological defences against that. For example, the hypermasculinity and fantasied omnipotence of Islamic State.

    It is necessary, for various reasons, to retain the legal category of terrorist attacks. But it should be a subcategory of a more inclusive approach that covers all violent attacks on the public.

    Where there is little or no consistent ideological element, the term terrorism, which has political connotations, should not be employed. Violence that doesn’t aim to promote a political objective would be better described as the infliction of terror on innocent members of the public, as a form of revenge upon the world or as an expression of hatred. Other political terms such as “radicalisation” and “extremism” may also be inappropriate or confusing when applied to such cases.

    A conceptual framework which makes that distinction, while also recognising the common psychological ground of the draw towards violence, would allow for more effective interventions.

    Prevent could continue its work (with much-needed improvements) to minimise ideologically rationalised attacks. But it would be coordinated with a complementary national agency that oversees and supports local services in identifying and managing people like Rudakubana. The face-to-face client work of both prongs would be guided and overseen by forensic psychiatrists and psychotherapists.

    There will be more people in both sub-categories coming along with very weak control of their violent impulses. They will need skilful management that understands the drivers of profound disturbance.

    Barry Richards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Southport attacks: why the UK needs a unified approach to all violent attacks on the public – https://theconversation.com/southport-attacks-why-the-uk-needs-a-unified-approach-to-all-violent-attacks-on-the-public-248185

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The US stock market does better under Democrat presidents than Republicans – here’s what the data shows

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

    The US has been experiencing a long “bull” stock market, that is rapid growth in stock prices, although this week tech stocks tumbled over the future prospects for US-built AI.

    But could the market hit a significant downturn during Trump’s second term in the White House? At first sight this seems unlikely because it did well during his first term, from 2016 to 2020 (see chart below). However, long term trends in the US stock market reveal a pattern suggesting that stock prices might be quite vulnerable during his second term.

    The Nobel prize-winning economist, Robert Shiller, who studies financial markets thinks that the US stock market has peaked, and future returns will be much more modest than in recent history although he does not suggest that a crash is on the horizon.

    The market under different presidents

    Shiller’s data makes it possible to look at the relationship between who is the president and stock prices since 1925. By examining the performance of the stock market over that period we can identify the extent to which eight Democrat and nine Republican presidents have influenced the growth of the market.

    Changes in stock prices during Republican presidents 1925 to 2024:

    The chart shows the percentage changes in the Standard and Poor’s monthly stock price index (which gives a snapshot of the market), corrected for inflation, during the incumbencies of Republican presidents since January 1925.

    The average increase in stock prices for Republican presidents was 25%. But the thing that stands out in the chart is that three major crashes in the stock market also took place under these Republicans incumbents.

    The first of these, known as the Wall Street Crash, occurred on October 28 1929 when Herbert Hoover was president. This was the trigger event for the Great Depression of the 1930s and resulted in a fall of 64% in the stock market during his presidency.

    His reaction to the crash (when share values fell dramatically) was to do nothing in the belief that the economy would eventually recover on its own. This cost him the 1932 presidential election when Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected for the first time. He was subsequently elected a record four times, thanks to his New Deal policies for dealing with the crisis.



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    The second crash occurred during Richard Nixon’s incumbency. He would have been impeached by Congress had he not resigned in August 1974 following the revelations of the Watergate scandal.

    This occurred when the White House employed burglars to break into the Democrat party headquarters in the Watergate building in Washington DC. Once Nixon’s attempt to spy on his opponents became public he was forced to resign and overall the stock market fell by 47% during his incumbency.

    The third crash occurred in December 2007 when George W Bush was the president. It had its origins in the deregulation of the financial sector which had occurred in the US after Ronald Reagan became president in 1980. Lax financial regulations led to ever increasingly risky assets and trading practices on Wall Street starting in the real estate market.

    US stock market opens.

    The crisis spread rapidly throughout the world’s financial system and a recession of the scale of the 1930s was only averted by prompt action by the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, who worked with political leaders in other countries such as UK prime minister Gordon Brown to stabilise the system. The stock market fell by 45% during Bush’s period of office.

    Many factors are at work to explain this, but the overriding fact is that Republicans are less likely to regulate the financial sector, or across the board, than Democrats. Their voters are more likely to be optimistic about the prospects for the economy, and therefore to take risks when investing in the stock market, when a Republican is in the White House.

    Changes in stock prices during Democratic presidents 1925 to 2024:

    The second chart shows changes in stock prices during the incumbencies of eight Democratic presidents during this period. It is very different from the Republican chart, since, of those presidents shown, only Jimmy Carter left office with the stock market lower than when he arrived, and that by a modest 13%.

    Bill Clinton was the most successful president, achieving an increase of 151% during his two terms in the White House. Overall, the stock market rose by an average of 51% during Democrat incumbencies, more than twice the size of the Republican increases.

    These results are surprising given that the Republicans are the traditional party of big business and so might be expected to be good for the stock market.

    Donald Trump has promised to increase tariffs on imports from the rest of the world, particularly those from China. In addition, there is a burgeoning budget deficit caused by the gap between spending and taxation.

    Most economists think these policies will create inflation and slow growth.

    Many investors are currently quite nervous about a possible recession after the long bull market of the last few years. The drop in the price of tech stocks this week confirms this. One effect of this has been to cause a rise in yields on US Treasury long-term bonds, reflecting fears of further inflation.

    Recent comparative research shows that countries can pay a high price for populist economic policies. So, it would be well worth Trump studying the history of US stock markets rises and falls, if he wants to avoid a severe economic downturn during his second term.

    Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC.

    – ref. The US stock market does better under Democrat presidents than Republicans – here’s what the data shows – https://theconversation.com/the-us-stock-market-does-better-under-democrat-presidents-than-republicans-heres-what-the-data-shows-246652

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –