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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why brands are embracing fantasy: The psychology behind escapist marketing in anxious times

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Eugene Y. Chan, Associate Professor of Marketing, Toronto Metropolitan University

    Why did Aritzia open a café inside its flagship store in Toronto? Why did Burberry pivot from fashion photography to cinematic ads that transport viewers into dreamlike sequences? And why is Simons, Canada’s remaining department store, incorporating art and interactive technologies into its retail spaces?

    The answer lies in a trend known as escapist marketing. In an era marked by economic uncertainty, climate anxiety, geopolitical tensions and relentless digital fatigue, brands are turning to fantasy, storytelling and emotionally immersive design to sell products to consumers.

    Escapist marketing is a strategy that creates emotionally immersive experiences to help consumers temporarily escape from reality, often through fantasy, nostalgia or idealized lifestyles. It taps into the desire for relief from stress or monotony by offering imaginative or aspirational narratives.

    A video introducing ‘It’s Always Burberry Weather: London in Love,’ a series of seven films by Burberry inspired by British romantic comedies.

    Escapist marketing has been gaining traction in Canada as consumers are drawn to brands that spark imagination and emotional engagement. According to a 2024 Retail Council of Canada report, Gen Z shoppers prefer brands that offer emotional connection, purpose and creativity.

    The inaugural Great Canadian Brand Index, which one of us (Eugene Y. Chan) helped develop, found that brands perceived as adventurous, honest and imaginative scored highest in overall public favourability. These are precisely the qualities expressed through fantastical storytelling.

    As marketing professors and researchers, we’ve been studying how and why this approach works, and we’ve found it’s grounded in psychology.

    The rise of fantasy in branding

    While brands have long used aspiration in their marketing, today’s strategies feel noticeably different. The focus has shifted from luxury and exclusivity to escapism itself, and it’s becoming increasingly visible across industries.

    Consider Coca-Cola’s “Real Magic” campaign, for instance, which uses AI-generated imagery to create whimsical dreamscapes. Or Apple’s recent “Mother Nature” ad, which reframes a corporate report about the brand’s support of environmental and social issues as a high-concept film starring Octavia Spencer.

    Apple’s ‘Mother Nature’ ad.

    In London, Gucci’s “Gucci Cosmos” series invites visitors into a surreal world of time travel and design history.

    These marketing campaigns are all designed to be emotional experiences for consumers. This means that the emotional reactions consumers have during interactions with a brand, product or service influence their attitudes, memories and future decision-making. These emotions deepen engagement and strengthen brand loyalty.

    As consumers continue to feel burned out and overstimulated, fantasy in the form of escapism offers them mental relief. Research shows that immersive experiences — whether through entertainment, retail environments or brand storytelling — can distract from stressors and promote emotional recovery. By providing a temporary break from reality, fantasy-driven marketing taps into a deep psychological need for comfort and cognitive release.

    Why it works: The psychology of escapism

    To understand why escapist marketing is so effective, it helps to look at the psychology behind it.

    One explanation comes from construal level theory, a framework that examines how psychological distance shapes thinking. When something feels far away in time, space or familiarity, we tend to think about it more abstractly.

    Surreal or fantastical branding increases this distance, shifting consumers’ focus from immediate utility to emotional resonance, identity and imagination.

    While escapist marketing is a broader strategy that aims to help consumers mentally disengage from reality, surreal or fantastical branding is one specific tactic that uses dreamlike, imaginative visuals and narratives to achieve that goal.

    Not all escapist marketing is surreal, but surreal branding often serves as a powerful form of escapism by transporting consumers into an alternate world.

    A video about the Gucci Cosmos exhibition celebrating over 100 years of the brand’s history.

    Our research supports this. In one study, we explored how concave visual design — where ad elements curve inward — draws viewers into the imagery, increases feelings of immersion and enhances message recall and persuasion. This is likely why dreamlike campaigns often use fluid, expansive or distorted imagery.

    Another factor is anthropomorphism: the tendency to assign human traits to objects or environments. In our studies on destination branding, we found that people are more emotionally connected to places or products that seem to come alive. These findings help explain why fantastical branding resonates so strongly with consumers, particularly in times of stress.

    Escapism also pairs naturally with luxury branding, where emotional desire often outweighs functional need. In a recent study with our research colleagues, we found that luxury brands were evaluated more favourably when their positioning felt abstract or elevated. Fantasy enhances this effect, allowing consumers to feel both wealthier and transported.

    Escapism isn’t a free pass

    There’s a fine line between meaningful escapism and empty spectacle. If a brand’s fantasy narrative feels disconnected from its action, or appears to mask unethical practices, consumers are quick to notice.

    Greenwashing, AI overuse or tone-deaf advertising can easily backfire on businesses.

    When consumers perceive a brand as inauthentic — whether through misleading sustainability claims, excessive reliance on AI or insensitive messaging — it can erode trust, trigger public criticism and lead to brand avoidance.

    Studies show that such missteps often result in reputational damage and decreased customer loyalty, particularly among values-driven or socially aware consumers

    This is where the concept of radical honesty intersects with escapism. The most effective marketing campaigns today blend creativity with transparency. They tell imaginative stories while also acknowledging real-world issues like carbon emissions, labour practices and social justice issues.

    Brands like Patagonia — and Peace Collective in Canada that’s working in conjunction with McDonalds — have managed to strike this balance by combining emotionally impactful ad campaigns with commitments to ethical and sustainable practices.

    Consumers want experiences that resonate

    In times of economic stress and cultural fatigue, Canadians are seeking experiences that resonate with them. When done thoughtfully and grounded in psychology and authenticity, escapist marketing can respond to consumers’ desire to feel something deeper, even via something as brief as a 30-second ad.

    So next time you find yourself smiling at a surreal commercial or lingering in a carefully curated retail space, understand that small moment of wonder is a strategic choice, supported by research.

    But while immersive storytelling may captivate audiences, consumers are becoming more discerning about what feels authentic. The future of escapist marketing may lie in the blending of digital and physical realities. Tools like augmented and virtual reality can allow brands to create even more immersive fantasies.

    Imagine ordering coffee from an AI-generated character or in a branded metaverse cafe. While it may seem futuristic and fun, many consumers feel uneasy when brands rely too heavily on artificial interactions, fearing a loss of authenticity. This tension highlights the growing divide between technological novelty and the human connection consumers still crave.

    As technology evolves, so, too, will consumer expectations of emotional, imaginative engagement. The next chapter in fantasy branding may not just offer us an escape, but could redefine how we experience commerce itself.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why brands are embracing fantasy: The psychology behind escapist marketing in anxious times – https://theconversation.com/why-brands-are-embracing-fantasy-the-psychology-behind-escapist-marketing-in-anxious-times-259226

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Labour is divided over disability cuts – here’s what the public thinks

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Curtice, Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research

    Keir Starmer’s MPs are rebelling en masse against cuts to the benefits system. Flickr/UK Parliament, CC BY-NC-ND

    Keir Starmer has been dealing with his most serious parliamentary challenge since he became prime minister. More than a hundred Labour MPs backed a motion to stop in its tracks the government’s attempt to reduce the welfare bill, including by raising the threshold at which someone can claim disability benefit.

    This issue has divided the parliamentary Labour party. But what does the public think?

    Although there are signs people recognise that spending on disability benefits is now relatively high, the latest annual British Social Attitudes (BSA) report reveals that it is far from clear that they are supportive of cutbacks. And, unfortunately for the government this is especially true of those who voted Labour last year.

    Ever since the late 1990s, BSA has regularly asked its respondents whether they would like “to see more or less government spending than now on benefits for disabled people who cannot work”. In 1998, 78% indicated they would like to see more spending. By 2011, that figure had fallen to 53%, and it was still no more than 56% in 2021.

    Attitudes to spending on disability benefits, 1998-2024.
    British Social Attitudes, CC BY-ND

    Now, though, only 45% would like to see more money spent on disability benefits. For the first time, less than half the country backs giving those with a disability more help.

    However, that does not mean most voters would like to see actual cutbacks. Only 11% say the government should spend less on disability benefits. The rest are content with the status quo.

    Meanwhile, just 5% of those who voted Labour last year back less spending. Over half (53%) are in favour of an increase.

    The government’s central argument is that it has become too easy to claim disability benefits and that this is discouraging people from getting back into employment.

    Work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall first announced the cuts in March 2025.
    Flickr/UK Parliament, CC BY-NC-ND

    There is some support for this view. Among the public in general, 29% say it is “too easy” to claim disability benefit. The trouble is, just as many, 29%, take the opposite view and say it is “too difficult”. The most popular response, given by 35%, is that it is “neither too easy nor too difficult”.

    Meanwhile, among Labour voters, the balance of opinion is clearly tilted towards the view that claiming disability benefit is “too difficult”. As many as 39% say so, while only 20% feel it is “too easy”.

    Similarly, most voters (62%) feel the requirement for people on disability benefits to take “active measures to find appropriate work” is “about right”. Just 11% feel it is “too weak”, while more than twice as many (23%) believe it is “too tough”. Only 6% of Labour voters believe it is “too weak”.

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    These figures help explain why the government has seemingly been struggling to head off the rebellion. Already burned by voters’ reaction to last year’s cutback to the winter fuel allowance, and with their party trailing Reform in the polls, Labour MPs now find themselves presented with another cut that threatens to be unpopular with many of those who put them into Westminster. Little wonder there are now signs the government is having to bend to their view.

    .

    John Curtice is currently in receipt of funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

    – ref. Labour is divided over disability cuts – here’s what the public thinks – https://theconversation.com/labour-is-divided-over-disability-cuts-heres-what-the-public-thinks-259840

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why your holiday flight is still not being powered by sustainable aviation fuel

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Salman Ahmad, Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, University of the West of Scotland

    Fahroni/Shutterstock

    As you wait in the departure lounge for your flight this summer, you may notice your aeroplane being pumped full of fuel ahead of takeoff. And then you may start to wonder why flying is still so dependent on fossil fuels, and whether you should have booked a holiday destination that’s accessible by a more environmentally friendly form of transport.

    So what happened to plans for so-called sustainable aviation fuel? Wasn’t it supposed to be the “game changer” that would make flying a much greener travel option than it used to be?

    Clearly, the move to adopt the technology is facing difficulties. One problem seems to be that there simply isn’t enough sustainable fuel to go around.

    But the business side of the process is also holding back sustainable fuel uptake.

    Research my colleagues and I conducted in 2021 revealed a deeply fragmented landscape at pretty much every step of sustainable fuel development. There are obstacles everywhere, blocking the paths of the producers developing these fuels, the airlines who might use them and the governmental and campaign groups pushing for change.

    Everyone seems to agree that sustainable fuel matters. They just don’t all agree about how to really get it off the ground.

    Our findings demonstrate that producers, for instance, were understandably focused on more research and development to improve efficient production. They were also worried that scaling up facilities could disrupt production that is already in place.

    Airlines meanwhile, are grappling with the economics of moving to sustainable fuel, which is around three to ten times more expensive than conventional fuel. Right now, a litre of conventional aviation fuel costs around £0.96 per litre in the UK – for sustainable aviation fuel it’s around £1.97. (Depending on the length of the journey and the size of the engine, a plane could need around 13,000 litres per hour of flying.)

    They spoke about inconsistent supply (especially at major airports), and the need for clearer regulations and incentives across the industry.

    “Cost is clearly the most important driver,” one airline executive told us, explaining that dealing with those costs would ultimately depend on passenger demand for greener travel – and how willing those passengers are to pay a premium for sustainable fuel.

    Distribution companies that take the sustainable fuel where it needs to go, have found themselves struggling to navigate the complexities of an emerging supply chain. They spoke of the logistical challenges of transporting and storing sustainable fuel, and a lack of clear communication between producers and airlines.

    They saw themselves as a crucial part of the sustainable aviation fuel puzzle, but were concerned about investing in logistics and infrastructure without guaranteed demand.

    Elsewhere, politicians and climate campaigners tend to view the adoption of sustainable fuel from a broader perspective, stressing the urgency of action on climate change. Their thinking is dominated by environmental strategy and sustainable aviation fuel regulation.

    But here, trust becomes an issue. Some of those involved with sustainable fuel development said they doubted government promises to support the sector over the long term. Others are cynical about whether airlines will really prioritise climate action over their very tight profit margins.

    Up in the air

    So sustainable fuel inspires plenty of different viewpoints and concerns. But one common thread was an overwhelming concern about cost and scale of production.

    Aside from being far more expensive than fossil-based jet fuel, building enough production facilities to make more will require billions of pounds of investment.

    The big question is who will foot the bill.

    sustainable fuel, on a wing and a prayer?
    Bulent camci/Shutterstock

    Some of this will need to be tax funded. For if the UK wants to become a leader in the use of sustainable aviation fuel, as the government says it does, it needs more than ambitious targets. It needs to start making things happen.

    And our research suggests that the industry as a whole would benefit from some certainty to encourage investment right across the supply chain. Without a clear and stable regulatory framework, everyone will remain hesitant about committing significant resources to sustainable fuel.

    Collaboration between the key players could also be improved, with a better dialogue between those in the industry and regulators, potentially leading to a shared vision for the future of sustainable aviation fuel.

    That future is by no means doomed. Major commercial airlines like Air France-KLM, IAG (British Airways) and United Airlines in the US are working with sustainable fuel producers around the world.

    But while the desire to decarbonise aviation seems clear, the path forward is not straightforward. It is a complex picture of politics, economics, trust and differing priorities.

    By navigating this turbulence wisely, the sustainable fuel sector can be part of a broader flight path to net zero. But if managed poorly, targets to dramatically increase its use will remain elusive.

    Salman Ahmad received funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council to undertake work that informs the contents of this article. He is also a professional member of the Project Management Institue and the Association for Supply Chain Management.

    – ref. Why your holiday flight is still not being powered by sustainable aviation fuel – https://theconversation.com/why-your-holiday-flight-is-still-not-being-powered-by-sustainable-aviation-fuel-258958

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: The architecture of the new Queen Elizabeth II memorial aims to commemorate her as ‘a unifying force’

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster

    In the heart of London’s St James’s Park, where John Nash’s 200-year-old landscape has witnessed the rise and fall of empires, a new chapter is about to unfold. The site that has long served as the nation’s ceremonial backdrop will soon become home to something unprecedented: a memorial not just to a monarch, but to an entire era.

    The winner of the competition to design Queen Elizabeth II’s memorial has been announced, and perhaps it was inevitable that it would be Norman Foster.

    However, it was also clear that the memorial was intended to be a new national landmark that somehow encapsulated the queen and changed national values and identities during her long reign.

    Almost inevitably, it is to be situated in a Grade-I listed setting in St James’s Park, London. This presented designers with the further challenge of how to sensitively respond to John Nash’s historic landscape design across a site that spans the breadth of the park.

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    After initial expressions of interest were sifted, the five candidates shortlisted in February had to come up with a master plan that was emotionally resonant and sustainable.

    It also had to be compatible with the existing use of this extensive site, not least as a thoroughfare presenting vistas of Buckingham Palace and Whitehall. This memorial therefore involved much more than the simple statues of the Queen’s father and grandfather that came before it.

    Even the memorial to Queen Victoria, undoubtedly the most commemorated woman in British history, is modest in scale compared to this new project.

    The Queen Elizabeth II memorial is clearly intended to be very different from Victoria’s imperial confection. The brief for the design specified that it had to be immediately comprehensible to peoples of all races and religions, respect the park’s wildlife, be easy to maintain and be reasonably vandal proof. Above all, the proposal had to evoke the late queen’s qualities and “tell the story of her long reign through integrated design, landscaping and placemaking”.

    The process was therefore an exercise in landscape architecture, rather than producing an artwork.

    The queen herself had considerable familiarity with architecture. During her reign, she opened 122 buildings in London alone, as well as iconic buildings around the world, such as Sydney Opera House.

    The queen described the latter as “a splendid achievement of engineering and architecture”. Her similar enthusiasm when opening the Barbican in London suggests that her architectural tastes were less traditional than her eldest son’s.

    Yet there was no dominant school of architecture among the buildings she opened, nor a New Elizabethan style that defined her reign. It would be impossible to evoke the eclectic architecture range of her reign without pastiche.

    However, if there was no defining architecture, there arguably was a defining architect – the nonagenarian Sir Norman Foster. A working-class lad from Manchester who built a globally renowned architectural brand, his architectural career, which commenced in 1956, nearly coincides with the queen’s reign.

    During that reign, many of the significant buildings she opened, such as Stansted Airport, were designed by Foster. In his career, he has won every major architectural award and produced major landmark buildings all over the world. In consequence, he has been described as the “perfect architect for his era”.

    With all due respect to the acclaimed teams of designers he was competing with, it therefore seems appropriate that his firm, Foster + Partners, should have been chosen to evoke the reign of a monarch during which his buildings featured so prominently.

    A ‘unifying force’

    To win the bid, Foster + Partners had to assemble a multidisciplinary team, including the British artist Yinka Shonibare. Their proposal was felt to address many of the dualities of the Queen’s reign: tradition and modernity, public duty and private faith and the relationship between the UK and the Commonwealth that was always dear to Elizabeth II’s heart.

    To express these dualities, their master plan provided for two gates and two gardens, united by a path and a new translucent bridge over the park’s lake. As Foster reflected, this was intended to convey the queen’s role “as a unifying force”.

    Probably one factor that worked in their favour was the significance given to the Duke of Edinburgh. The firm’s suggestion of a statue of the royal couple together is unusual. The statues of the queen’s parents, in contrast, are separate if adjacent on a staircase on the north side of The Mall facing the park where their daughter’s memorial will appear. This plan brings her back together with the beloved husband she so missed after his death in 2021. It’s a move that the queen would no doubt have thoroughly approved.

    The design concept will, of course, be refined. The architectural renders at present can only give a glimpse of what the memorial landscape will look like in practice, let alone convey the ambience it seeks to evoke. Such details will need to be developed before the designs are submitted for planning permission.

    Nevertheless, it does seem appropriate that, for an era that defies architectural categorisation it should reflect the vision of the man who, more than any other, has been the architect of the age.

    Pippa Catterall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The architecture of the new Queen Elizabeth II memorial aims to commemorate her as ‘a unifying force’ – https://theconversation.com/the-architecture-of-the-new-queen-elizabeth-ii-memorial-aims-to-commemorate-her-as-a-unifying-force-259843

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: In the sky over Iran, Elon Musk and Starlink step into geopolitics – not for the first time

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joscha Abels, Post-Doctoral Researcher, Institute of Political Science, University of Tübingen

    It was the briefest of messages, but the potential consequences could have been significant. Elon Musk posted a four-word tweet on June 14: “The beams are on”. The message prefigured a consequential intervention – not only in Iranian domestic affairs but potentially in the geopolitics of the Middle East. The US billionaire was responding to a request on his online platform X, asking him to activate the Starlink satellite system over Iran in support of anti-government protests.

    Following Israel’s military strikes on critical sites in Iran, the Islamic Republic imposed a large-scale internet shutdown that saw a drastic drop in connectivity throughout the county. Nationwide restrictions were placed on access to websites, social media platforms and mobile networks.

    This has effectively limited the inflow of media reports to the Iranian public. It has also made it more difficult for Iranians to organise amid violent crackdowns by the regime’s security forces. The activation of Starlink could allow them to bypass government censorship and restore contact with the outside world – and each other.

    It is not the first time Iran’s government has restricted internet access to stifle unrest – nor is it the first time that Musk got involved. In 2022, amid nationwide protests following the death of a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, at the hands of the security forces, ostensibly for wearing her hijab incorrectly, Musk activated Starlink over Iran for the first time.

    This triggered the smuggling of thousands of Starlink terminals into the country from neighbouring states. These terminals are flat rectangular devices, no larger than a baking tray. It is estimated that around 20,000 of them have found their way into Iran, giving Musk’s latest move a more immediate impact.

    Still, reestablishing internet coverage remains difficult. The few available Starlink terminals are traded on the black market at exorbitant prices, and Starlink services in Iran still require payments of a monthly subscription fee. Iran’s government has also issued threats against citizens who use the system.

    A new kind of warfare

    Starlink is the most advanced communication satellite system in the world. Orbiting Earth at an altitude of about 550kms, its satellites deliver high-speed internet to customers around the globe. Out of more than 12,000 active satellites in orbit, around 7,600 belong to Starlink.

    The system is operated by SpaceX, a space tech firm headquartered in Texas. SpaceX has recently become the world’s most valuable privately held company according to Bloomberg, surpassing even ByteDance (TikTok) and OpenAI.

    Musk continues to act as the company’s largest stakeholder and chief executive, even while wielding huge political influence (following his recent rift with the US president, there is evidence he still wields considerable political clout in the US).

    Starlink owes much of its geopolitical relevance to modern warfare. Secure communications have become essential on today’s data-driven battlefields. The mass availability of drones has fundamentally changed how wars are fought. High-bandwidth connections are needed for drones to transmit live video and receive targeting data.

    As land-based connections are vulnerable to sabotage and outright attacks, mega-constellations such as Starlink provide a robust alternative. Comprising thousands of units, several hundreds of kilometres above ground, their services are difficult to disrupt.

    Ukraine: a cautionary tale

    Nowhere has the importance of satellite communications for geopolitics been more evident than in Ukraine. Russia prepared its invasion by conducting cyberattacks on Ukraine’s Viasat system. Musk responded by activating Starlink, announcing the move in the same casual style that he used for Iran.

    The effect was immediate. Starlink quickly became indispensable for Ukraine’s counter-offensive efforts. Amid the Russian onslaught, it provided the nation’s military with secure communications to push back against the invasion. For SpaceX, this yielded not just hugely positive publicity but also substantial financial injections from investors.

    Just months into Starlink’s activation, SpaceX initiated a strategic shift. Ukrainian forces reported outages along the front lines, especially when pushing into Russian-occupied territory. In October 2022, Musk floated the idea that SpaceX might withdraw support altogether, citing high operational costs.

    By February 2023, the company had begun limiting Starlink’s use for the operation of Ukrainian drones. SpaceX’s chief operating office, Gwynne Shotwell stated that the system was “never intended to be weaponized”.

    Power in private hands

    Starlink’s role in Ukraine offers a striking example of how modern communications can change the course of conflicts, as I argued in a recent article in the European Journal of International Relations. At the same time, it serves as a cautionary tale about the reliability of critical systems in the hands of private corporations and powerful individuals.

    In Ukraine, Musk held the power to effectively veto military operations. No democratic body provided oversight – the signal could be switched off with a tweet. Starlink’s role in Iran raises similarly uncomfortable questions: who decides when – or whether – citizens get to communicate?

    While the region is struggling to establish a fragile ceasefire, political unrest in Iran is unlikely to subside soon. The deeper truth remains that communications within Iran’s civil society currently depend on the world’s wealthiest person – and no alternatives are in sight.

    Joscha Abels receives funding from the German Research Foundation (DFG), grant 526359979.

    – ref. In the sky over Iran, Elon Musk and Starlink step into geopolitics – not for the first time – https://theconversation.com/in-the-sky-over-iran-elon-musk-and-starlink-step-into-geopolitics-not-for-the-first-time-259833

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: There is no loneliness epidemic – so why do we keep talking as if there is?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Brendan Kelly, Professor of Psychiatry, Trinity College Dublin

    fran_kie/Shutterstock.com

    Most people experience periods of loneliness, isolation or solitude in their lives. But these are different things, and the proportion of people feeling lonely is stable over time. So why do we keep talking about an epidemic of loneliness?

    Before the COVID pandemic, several studies showed that rates of loneliness were stable in England, the US, Finland, Sweden and Germany, among other places, over recent decades.

    While COVID changed many things, loneliness levels quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels. In 2018, 34% of US adults aged 50 to 80 years reported a lack of companionship “some of the time” or “often”. That proportion rose to 42% during the pandemic but fell to 33% in 2024.

    That’s a lot of lonely people, but it is not an epidemic. In some countries, such as Sweden, loneliness is in decline – at least among older adults.

    Despite these statistics, the idea that loneliness is increasing is pervasive. For example in 2023, the US surgeon general warned about an “epidemic of loneliness and isolation”. The UK even has a government minister with an explicit responsibility for addressing loneliness.

    Loneliness is a problem, even if it is not an epidemic. Social connection is important for physical and mental health. Many people feel lonely in a crowd or feel crowded when alone. In 2023, the World Health Organization announced a “Commission on Social Connection”. The WHO is right: we need to reduce loneliness in our families, communities and societies.

    But the idea that loneliness is an “epidemic” is misleading and it draws us away from sustainable solutions, rather than towards them. It suggests that loneliness is a new problem (it is not), that it is increasing (it is not), that it is beyond our control (it is not), and that the only appropriate reaction is an emergency one (it is not).

    In the short term, loneliness is an undesirable psychological state. In the long term, it is a risk factor for chronic ill health.

    Loneliness is not a sudden crisis that needs a short-term fix. It is a long-term challenge that requires a sustained response. An emergency reaction is not appropriate – a measured response is. Initiatives by the US surgeon general and WHO are welcome, but they should be long-term responses to an enduring problem, not emergency reactions to an “epidemic”.

    Vivek Murthy, the former US surgeon general warned about an epidemic of loneliness in America.
    lev radin/Shutterstock

    Medicalising normal human experience

    Conceptual clarity is essential if true loneliness is to be addressed. Pathologising all instances of being alone risks medicalising normal human experiences such as solitude. Some people feel alive only in crowds, but others were born lighthouse keepers. In a hyper-connected world, loneliness should be solvable, but solitude must be treasured.

    So, if there is no loneliness epidemic, why do we keep talking as if there is? Media framing of the issue and the human tendency to panic reinforce each other. We click into news stories based on subjective resonance rather than objective evidence.

    Human behaviour is shaped primarily by feelings, not facts. We dramatise, panic, and overstate negative trends. If trends are positive, we focus on minor counter-trends, ignore statistics and make things up.

    In the case of loneliness, the problem is real, even if the “epidemic” is not. Loneliness is part of the human condition, but alleviating each other’s loneliness is also part of who we are – or who we can become.

    Addressing loneliness is not about solving a short-term problem or halting an “epidemic”. It means learning to live with each other in new, more integrated ways that meet our emotional needs. Loneliness is not the problem. It is a consequence of living in societies that are often disconnected and fragmented.

    The solution? We cannot change the essentials of human nature – and nor should we try. But we can be a little kinder to ourselves, speak to each other a little more, and cultivate compassion for ourselves and other people.

    We need to connect with each other better and more. We can. We should. We will.

    Brendan Kelly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. There is no loneliness epidemic – so why do we keep talking as if there is? – https://theconversation.com/there-is-no-loneliness-epidemic-so-why-do-we-keep-talking-as-if-there-is-259072

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why evolution can explain human testicle size but not our unique chins

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Max Telford, Jodrell Professor of Zoology and Comparative Anatomy, UCL

    neurobit/Shutterstock

    The human body is a machine whose many parts – from the microscopic details of our cells to our limbs, eyes, liver and brain – have been assembled in fits and starts over the four billion years of our history.

    But scientists are still puzzling over why we evolved into this particular form. Why do humans uniquely have a chin, for example? And why, relative to body weight, is a human testicle triple the size of a gorilla’s but a fifth of that of a chimpanzee? As I show in my new book, The Tree of Life, we are still searching for the answers to many of these “why” questions. But we are starting to find answers to some of them.

    The story of evolution tells us how, starting from simple beginnings, each species was built – when each of the components that make a living creature was added to its blueprint. If we climb the evolutionary tree of life, we can follow a twisting path that visits the increasingly specialised branches that a species belongs to. We humans, for example, were animals before we became vertebrates; mammals before evolving into primates and so on.

    The groups of species we share each of these branches with reveal the order our body parts appeared in. A body and a gut (inventions of the animal branch) must have come before backbone and limbs (vertebrate branch); milk and hair (mammals) came before fingernails (primates).

    There is a way we can study the separate problem of just why we evolved each of these body parts, but it only works if the feature in question has evolved more than once on separate branches of the tree of life. This repeated evolution is called convergence. It can be a source of frustration for biologists because it confuses us as to how species are related. Swallows and swifts, for example, were once classified as sister species. We now know from both DNA and comparisons of their skeletons that swallows are really closer relatives of owls than swifts.

    Size matters when it comes to evolution

    But convergent evolution becomes something useful when we think of it as a kind of natural experiment. The size of primate testicles gives us a classic example. Abyssinian black and white colobus monkey and bonnet macaque adult males are roughly the same size. But, like chimps, humans and gorillas, these similar monkeys have vastly dissimilar testicles. Colobus testicles weigh just 3 grams. The testicles of the macaques, in contrast, are a whopping 48 grams.

    Bonnet macaques are no monogamists.
    SHAJI C/Shutterstock

    You could come up with several believable explanations for their different testicle sizes. Large testicles might be the equivalent of the peacock’s tail, not useful per se but attractive to females. But perhaps the most plausible explanation relates to the way they mate. A male colobus monkey competes ferociously for access to a harem of females who will mate exclusively with him. Macaques, on the other hand live in peaceful mixed troops of about 30 monkeys and have a different approach to love where everyone mates with everyone else: males with multiple females (polygamy) and females with multiple males (polyandry).

    The colobus with his harem can get away with producing a bare minimum of sperm – if a droplet is enough to produce a baby, then why make more? For a male macaque the competition to reproduce happens in a battle between his sperm and the sperm of other males who mated before or after. A male macaque with large testicles should make more sperm, giving him a higher chance of passing on his genes. It’s a sensible explanation for their different testicle sizes, but is it true? This is where convergent evolution helps.

    If we look across the whole of the mammal branch of the tree of life we find there are many groups of mammals that have evolved testicles of all different sizes. In almost all these separate cases, larger testicles are consistently found in promiscuous species and smaller in monogamous.

    A small-testicled, silverback male gorilla has sole access to a harem. Big-testicled chimps and bonobos are indeed highly promiscuous. Dolphins, meanwhile, may have the biggest mammalian testicles of all, making up as much as 4% of their body weight (equivalent to human testicles weighing roughly 3 kilos). Although wild dolphin sex lives are naturally hard to study, spinner dolphins at least fit our expectations, engaging in mass mating events called wuzzles.

    It was thanks to the multiple observations provided by convergent evolution that we were able to discover this consistent correlation between testicle size and sex life right across the mammals. And as for humans, we have testicle size somewhere in the middle, you can make of this what you want!

    But what of the human chin?

    The human chin has been fertile ground for arguments between scientists over its purpose. As with testicles, there are half a dozen plausible ideas to explain the evolution of the human chin. It could have evolved to strengthen the jaw of a battling caveman. Maybe the chin evolved to exaggerate the magnificence of a manly beard. It might even be a by-product of the invention of cooking and the softer food it produced – a functionless facial promontory left behind by the receding tide of a weakening jaw.

    Intriguingly, however, a chin can be found in no other mammal, not even our closest cousins the Neanderthals. Thanks to the uniqueness of the Homo sapiens chin, while we have a rich set of possible explanations for its evolutionary purpose, in the absence of convergent evolution, we have no sensible way of testing them.

    Some parts of human nature may be destined to remain a mystery.

    This article includes links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

    Max Telford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why evolution can explain human testicle size but not our unique chins – https://theconversation.com/why-evolution-can-explain-human-testicle-size-but-not-our-unique-chins-259419

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Netflix gives African film a platform – but the cultural price is high

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed, Assistant Professor of Communication, Cornell University

    Netflix began its Africa operations in South Africa in 2016. When the US streaming giant announced it was setting up shop in Nigeria in 2020, many west African film-makers, writers, artists and media audiences were jubilant.

    Finally, west Africa’s creativity and brilliance would be formally recognised on the world stage. Netflix Naija’s purpose was to produce local content for Netflix just like Netflix South Africa and later Netflix Kenya.



    Read more:
    Netflix Naija: creative freedom in Nigeria’s emerging digital space?

    Some film-makers have been wary of US cultural imperialism happening through the market dominance of Netflix and other US streamers. Others have rushed to the streamer to sign deals that will gain their films and TV shows a global audience.

    Netflix’s interest in African stories comes with a colonial power dynamic that research and scholarship has not fully explored. As a scholar of media and communication, I recently examined the effect US streamers are having on the stories being told in films in Nigeria and Ghana.

    In my study, I argue that despite the growing global interest in African pop culture, African creative workers need to be careful about interest from global conglomerates. We can’t talk about African cinemas going global without paying attention to how Hollywood’s colonial relationship with Africa has shaped and influenced what African filmmakers believe will sell globally.



    Read more:
    Black Panther, Wakanda Forever and the problem with Hollywood – an African perspective

    What price is being paid to appeal to global audiences? Film-makers might focus so much on the western gaze that they lose focus on telling African stories authentically and respectfully.

    In my study, I analyse various films including the Ghanaian film Azali and the Nigerian movie Lionheart to argue that that’s exactly what’s happening.

    Dancing to the tune of the west

    Despite the existence of thriving African film and TV industries before the advent of streaming technologies, we are seeing a replication of what I call the everydayness of colonialism in the area of media representations of the continent.

    Here, African filmmakers and producers find themselves jumping through hoops to tell stories that are “fit” to be streamed to Netflix’s millions of American, European and global subscribers. Global cosmopolitan audiences are prioritised over African audiences.



    Read more:
    Woman King is set in Benin but filmed in South Africa – in the process it erases real people’s struggles

    African audiences at home and in the diaspora are the reason we have vibrant film industries such as Nollywood to begin with.

    This displacement of African audiences happens both in representation and in access.

    Most African movie audiences do not have access to Netflix and other streaming platforms due to the digital divide and the cost of subscribing. So the target audience shifts to the elite, both African and global, who can afford to stream.

    Azali and Lionheart

    Ghana and Nigeria’s film industries were developed by artists who wanted to reflect their societies to their communities. I found that with Netflix’s arrival, there is a danger of disrupting and undoing this important work.

    The intervention of US streamers has led to the development of glossier versions of Africa. They are universal enough to be consumed by anyone, anywhere in the world, even if it means sacrificing the integrity of stories to achieve this global appeal.

    In Azali, for example, I found that the film sacrificed authentic language and geographical accuracy to tell a story for a western audience.

    Azali explores the themes of child marriage, child-trafficking and rural-urban migration in Ghana. Here, a film about the Dagbamba was set in the town of Zebilla, where Dagbanli is not the dominant language. The film cast non-Dagbanli speakers in major roles to speak a language they neither understood nor had any proficiency in. If Dagbamba had been centred as the primary audience of the movie, this cultural indignity might not have happened.

    Lionheart, though star-studded, departed from traditional Nollywood narrative conventions. The film tells the story of a wealthy Nigerian family and the quest of a young woman to take control of the family business. The movie had high production values and told a story that would be considered universally relatable. However, it was disqualified in its bid for an Oscar nomination in the Best International Feature Film category because of its majority English dialogue. Despite appealing to Netflix in the area of production quality and storyline, African film-makers were still punished by the Academy.

    Nigeria and Ghana’s film industries have traditionally told a wide variety of African stories. Netflix’s arrival is reducing African stories to stories about the elite and for the global cosmopolitan elite.

    Stories about the majority of Africans are being erased. Africa becomes a backdrop to tell stories about the elite class.

    In my study, I argue that narrative construction is an important part of identity and that when external factors begin to determine how African stories are told, it distorts the image of Africa for Africans and raises questions of cultural sovereignty.

    Moving forward

    It is refreshing to see African cultures appreciated on a global scale. But this shouldn’t erase narratives about the African masses and working communities.

    There are film-makers that are resisting the Netflix canon. Nigerian actress and producer Funke Akindele shows that this is possible in A Tribe Called Judah. Her film set a new box office record in Nigeria by avoiding direct to Netflix/streamer distribution and staying true to African audiences. The film tells the story of how a single mother and her five sons navigate poverty in Lagos. It was later licensed to stream on Amazon Prime Video after it made history at the box office in Nigeria.

    Other film-makers like Omoni Oboli, whose approach centres the Nigerian masses, has turned to YouTube. She tells Nigerian stories while resisting the exploitation that can often come with signing a Netflix deal.



    Read more:
    The unique strategy Netflix deployed to reach 90 million worldwide subscribers

    These projects offer an alternative. As Netflix expands, African creative workers and cultural policymakers must protect the narrative integrity of African stories and resist the economic exploitation of African film-makers. Productions can capture the nuances of African stories while representing African languages and cultures with respect and dignity – without selling out to western values.

    Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix gives African film a platform – but the cultural price is high – https://theconversation.com/netflix-gives-african-film-a-platform-but-the-cultural-price-is-high-259252

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Netflix gives African film a platform – but the cultural price is high

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed, Assistant Professor of Communication, Cornell University

    Netflix began its Africa operations in South Africa in 2016. When the US streaming giant announced it was setting up shop in Nigeria in 2020, many west African film-makers, writers, artists and media audiences were jubilant.

    Finally, west Africa’s creativity and brilliance would be formally recognised on the world stage. Netflix Naija’s purpose was to produce local content for Netflix just like Netflix South Africa and later Netflix Kenya.



    Read more:
    Netflix Naija: creative freedom in Nigeria’s emerging digital space?

    Some film-makers have been wary of US cultural imperialism happening through the market dominance of Netflix and other US streamers. Others have rushed to the streamer to sign deals that will gain their films and TV shows a global audience.

    Netflix’s interest in African stories comes with a colonial power dynamic that research and scholarship has not fully explored. As a scholar of media and communication, I recently examined the effect US streamers are having on the stories being told in films in Nigeria and Ghana.

    In my study, I argue that despite the growing global interest in African pop culture, African creative workers need to be careful about interest from global conglomerates. We can’t talk about African cinemas going global without paying attention to how Hollywood’s colonial relationship with Africa has shaped and influenced what African filmmakers believe will sell globally.



    Read more:
    Black Panther, Wakanda Forever and the problem with Hollywood – an African perspective

    What price is being paid to appeal to global audiences? Film-makers might focus so much on the western gaze that they lose focus on telling African stories authentically and respectfully.

    In my study, I analyse various films including the Ghanaian film Azali and the Nigerian movie Lionheart to argue that that’s exactly what’s happening.

    Dancing to the tune of the west

    Despite the existence of thriving African film and TV industries before the advent of streaming technologies, we are seeing a replication of what I call the everydayness of colonialism in the area of media representations of the continent.

    Here, African filmmakers and producers find themselves jumping through hoops to tell stories that are “fit” to be streamed to Netflix’s millions of American, European and global subscribers. Global cosmopolitan audiences are prioritised over African audiences.



    Read more:
    Woman King is set in Benin but filmed in South Africa – in the process it erases real people’s struggles

    African audiences at home and in the diaspora are the reason we have vibrant film industries such as Nollywood to begin with.

    This displacement of African audiences happens both in representation and in access.

    Most African movie audiences do not have access to Netflix and other streaming platforms due to the digital divide and the cost of subscribing. So the target audience shifts to the elite, both African and global, who can afford to stream.

    Azali and Lionheart

    Ghana and Nigeria’s film industries were developed by artists who wanted to reflect their societies to their communities. I found that with Netflix’s arrival, there is a danger of disrupting and undoing this important work.

    The intervention of US streamers has led to the development of glossier versions of Africa. They are universal enough to be consumed by anyone, anywhere in the world, even if it means sacrificing the integrity of stories to achieve this global appeal.

    In Azali, for example, I found that the film sacrificed authentic language and geographical accuracy to tell a story for a western audience.

    Azali explores the themes of child marriage, child-trafficking and rural-urban migration in Ghana. Here, a film about the Dagbamba was set in the town of Zebilla, where Dagbanli is not the dominant language. The film cast non-Dagbanli speakers in major roles to speak a language they neither understood nor had any proficiency in. If Dagbamba had been centred as the primary audience of the movie, this cultural indignity might not have happened.

    Lionheart, though star-studded, departed from traditional Nollywood narrative conventions. The film tells the story of a wealthy Nigerian family and the quest of a young woman to take control of the family business. The movie had high production values and told a story that would be considered universally relatable. However, it was disqualified in its bid for an Oscar nomination in the Best International Feature Film category because of its majority English dialogue. Despite appealing to Netflix in the area of production quality and storyline, African film-makers were still punished by the Academy.

    Nigeria and Ghana’s film industries have traditionally told a wide variety of African stories. Netflix’s arrival is reducing African stories to stories about the elite and for the global cosmopolitan elite.

    Stories about the majority of Africans are being erased. Africa becomes a backdrop to tell stories about the elite class.

    In my study, I argue that narrative construction is an important part of identity and that when external factors begin to determine how African stories are told, it distorts the image of Africa for Africans and raises questions of cultural sovereignty.

    Moving forward

    It is refreshing to see African cultures appreciated on a global scale. But this shouldn’t erase narratives about the African masses and working communities.

    There are film-makers that are resisting the Netflix canon. Nigerian actress and producer Funke Akindele shows that this is possible in A Tribe Called Judah. Her film set a new box office record in Nigeria by avoiding direct to Netflix/streamer distribution and staying true to African audiences. The film tells the story of how a single mother and her five sons navigate poverty in Lagos. It was later licensed to stream on Amazon Prime Video after it made history at the box office in Nigeria.

    Other film-makers like Omoni Oboli, whose approach centres the Nigerian masses, has turned to YouTube. She tells Nigerian stories while resisting the exploitation that can often come with signing a Netflix deal.



    Read more:
    The unique strategy Netflix deployed to reach 90 million worldwide subscribers

    These projects offer an alternative. As Netflix expands, African creative workers and cultural policymakers must protect the narrative integrity of African stories and resist the economic exploitation of African film-makers. Productions can capture the nuances of African stories while representing African languages and cultures with respect and dignity – without selling out to western values.

    Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix gives African film a platform – but the cultural price is high – https://theconversation.com/netflix-gives-african-film-a-platform-but-the-cultural-price-is-high-259252

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Detty December started as a Nigerian cultural moment. Now it’s spreading across the continent – and minting money

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Nnamdi O. Madichie, Professor of Marketing & Entrepreneurship, University of Kigali

    Festivals like Carnival Calabar in Nigeria abound throughout the year-end parties across west Africa and beyond. Akintomiwaao/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Every December in Nigeria and Ghana a giant party takes place, unfolding in a whirlwind of concerts, festivals, weddings, art shows, dress-ups, meet-ups and travel. Locals and diaspora west Africans returning from overseas come together to create Detty December, a festive event stretching from mid-December to the new year.

    Detty is a playful term for “dirty” in the regional Pidgin language and “Detty December” is a term commonly believed to have been coined by Afropop star Mr Eazi in 2016. It means letting loose and indulging in some fun and revelry.

    Major events headlined by local and international music stars punctuate Detty December. In Nigeria events range from Flytime Fest in Lagos to Carnival Calabar, which showcases cultural heritage. In Ghana, festivals like AfroFuture and Afro Nation attract global celebrities and influencers as well as returning citizens.

    But this isn’t just a holiday fling. Propelled by youthful energy and cultural innovation, it’s an economic phenomenon. And it represents a shift in Africa’s urban landscape and its relationship with the rest of the world.

    Detty December now stands as a pillar of Africa’s creative economy, which has built on the global popularity of music from the continent, from Afrobeats to amapiano.

    As marketing and entrepreneurship lecturers with an eye on the creative industries, we’ve researched Detty December and believe it’s a cultural tourism phenomenon with the potential to spread across the continent. In fact, it’s already begun to do so.

    Nigeria: the economic power of Detty December

    Despite infrastructure challenges, places like Lagos are new cultural epicentres. During Detty December the city becomes a carnival of reunions and celebrations. “I Just Got Backs” (IJGBs) return, music spills from every bar and events pop up daily.

    Once simply a cultural moment, Detty December has rapidly become a powerful economic engine. It makes a big impact on hospitality, entertainment, tourism and local businesses.

    In Lagos alone, the 2024 festivities generated an estimated US$71.6 million in state revenue. Hotels contributed US$44 million and short-term rentals added US$30 million.

    Nationally, the impact is even more staggering. Detty December injected over US$220 million into Nigeria’s economy in 2023.

    A major driver of this growth is tourism. An estimated 1.2 million visitors flocked to Lagos in December 2024. Nearly 90% of these were diaspora Nigerians.

    Afrobeats star Wizkid’s Made in Lagos concert alone pulled in nearly US$650,000 in ticket sales. New song releases on Fridays have become features of the season.

    Beyond direct spending, Detty December creates temporary and permanent jobs and bolsters small businesses.

    Ghana: December in GH

    The government of neighbouring Ghana has recognised this potential, strategically branding its festive season December in GH. This initiative leverages cultural tourism for substantial economic gain. The country even takes measures like visa-on-arrival in December to encourage visitors.

    This builds on cultural tourism successes like the 2019 Year of Return campaign. In 2023, December in GH reportedly attracted about 115,000 participants.

    Even in a challenging economic climate, Detty December continues to thrive. This indicates a desire for cultural connection and a much-needed escape, especially among the continent’s youth and its global diaspora communities.

    South Africa: Ke Dezemba

    From Flytime in Lagos and AfroNation in Accra to Alte Sounds in Kigali and the vibrant December nightlife in Mombasa or Johannesburg’s rooftop party events, African cities have become seasonal epicentres for cultural consumption.

    “Ke Dezemba” is a term used in South Africa to describe the festive season. It’s a vibrant and celebratory term that’s often associated with summer holidays, braaiing (barbecuing) and social gatherings. It could become the branding of the country’s own Detty December.

    South Africa’s global profile has been raised during its 2025 presidency of the G20. Adopting its own version of Detty December could continue to amplify Brand South Africa. It could show off the country’s vibrancy, creativity, hospitality and potential for investment.

    Aligning cultural celebration with global visibility could reframe a season of revelry into a strategic cultural and economic asset. For South Africa, this could inject capital into the tourism sector, boosting hospitality, transport and ancillary services.



    Read more:
    Culture can build a better world: four key issues on Africa’s G20 agenda

    Beyond direct tourism, the spotlight on South African art and culture during this period could make a lasting impact on the creative economy, fostering growth and job creation.

    Physical celebration could be digitally amplified to make a lasting impression.

    A notable example is Spotify’s unveiling of its Detty December hub. The music streaming service intends celebrating the festive season across west Africa and South Africa with playlists of party tracks.

    Spotify’s Phiona Okumu explains:

    Detty December is a special time for our users in west Africa, and Ke Dezemba symbolises South Africa’s spirit of celebration.

    How to make it work

    The lessons from west African cities suggest that cultural economies thrive with:

    • flexible governance

    • inclusive participation

    • engaged diasporas

    • innovative business models.

    For Nigeria’s Detty December model to be sustainable it would require strategic policy support, urban planning integration and investment in creative infrastructure.

    A group of diasporans in Ghana at the AfroFuture festival.
    Fquasie/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Funding models such as memberships and sponsorships are crucial for the longevity of music festivals. Policy support and infrastructure investment are necessary to unlock the full potential of the creative sector.

    Cultural tourism, powerfully embodied by Detty December, is emerging as a viable economic strategy for African cities. This signals a broader recognition of culture’s economic power. It offers a compelling canvas for economic development and nation branding.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Detty December started as a Nigerian cultural moment. Now it’s spreading across the continent – and minting money – https://theconversation.com/detty-december-started-as-a-nigerian-cultural-moment-now-its-spreading-across-the-continent-and-minting-money-258949

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Detty December started as a Nigerian cultural moment. Now it’s spreading across the continent – and minting money

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Nnamdi O. Madichie, Professor of Marketing & Entrepreneurship, University of Kigali

    Festivals like Carnival Calabar in Nigeria abound throughout the year-end parties across west Africa and beyond. Akintomiwaao/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Every December in Nigeria and Ghana a giant party takes place, unfolding in a whirlwind of concerts, festivals, weddings, art shows, dress-ups, meet-ups and travel. Locals and diaspora west Africans returning from overseas come together to create Detty December, a festive event stretching from mid-December to the new year.

    Detty is a playful term for “dirty” in the regional Pidgin language and “Detty December” is a term commonly believed to have been coined by Afropop star Mr Eazi in 2016. It means letting loose and indulging in some fun and revelry.

    Major events headlined by local and international music stars punctuate Detty December. In Nigeria events range from Flytime Fest in Lagos to Carnival Calabar, which showcases cultural heritage. In Ghana, festivals like AfroFuture and Afro Nation attract global celebrities and influencers as well as returning citizens.

    But this isn’t just a holiday fling. Propelled by youthful energy and cultural innovation, it’s an economic phenomenon. And it represents a shift in Africa’s urban landscape and its relationship with the rest of the world.

    Detty December now stands as a pillar of Africa’s creative economy, which has built on the global popularity of music from the continent, from Afrobeats to amapiano.

    As marketing and entrepreneurship lecturers with an eye on the creative industries, we’ve researched Detty December and believe it’s a cultural tourism phenomenon with the potential to spread across the continent. In fact, it’s already begun to do so.

    Nigeria: the economic power of Detty December

    Despite infrastructure challenges, places like Lagos are new cultural epicentres. During Detty December the city becomes a carnival of reunions and celebrations. “I Just Got Backs” (IJGBs) return, music spills from every bar and events pop up daily.

    Once simply a cultural moment, Detty December has rapidly become a powerful economic engine. It makes a big impact on hospitality, entertainment, tourism and local businesses.

    In Lagos alone, the 2024 festivities generated an estimated US$71.6 million in state revenue. Hotels contributed US$44 million and short-term rentals added US$30 million.

    Nationally, the impact is even more staggering. Detty December injected over US$220 million into Nigeria’s economy in 2023.

    A major driver of this growth is tourism. An estimated 1.2 million visitors flocked to Lagos in December 2024. Nearly 90% of these were diaspora Nigerians.

    Afrobeats star Wizkid’s Made in Lagos concert alone pulled in nearly US$650,000 in ticket sales. New song releases on Fridays have become features of the season.

    Beyond direct spending, Detty December creates temporary and permanent jobs and bolsters small businesses.

    Ghana: December in GH

    The government of neighbouring Ghana has recognised this potential, strategically branding its festive season December in GH. This initiative leverages cultural tourism for substantial economic gain. The country even takes measures like visa-on-arrival in December to encourage visitors.

    This builds on cultural tourism successes like the 2019 Year of Return campaign. In 2023, December in GH reportedly attracted about 115,000 participants.

    Even in a challenging economic climate, Detty December continues to thrive. This indicates a desire for cultural connection and a much-needed escape, especially among the continent’s youth and its global diaspora communities.

    South Africa: Ke Dezemba

    From Flytime in Lagos and AfroNation in Accra to Alte Sounds in Kigali and the vibrant December nightlife in Mombasa or Johannesburg’s rooftop party events, African cities have become seasonal epicentres for cultural consumption.

    “Ke Dezemba” is a term used in South Africa to describe the festive season. It’s a vibrant and celebratory term that’s often associated with summer holidays, braaiing (barbecuing) and social gatherings. It could become the branding of the country’s own Detty December.

    South Africa’s global profile has been raised during its 2025 presidency of the G20. Adopting its own version of Detty December could continue to amplify Brand South Africa. It could show off the country’s vibrancy, creativity, hospitality and potential for investment.

    Aligning cultural celebration with global visibility could reframe a season of revelry into a strategic cultural and economic asset. For South Africa, this could inject capital into the tourism sector, boosting hospitality, transport and ancillary services.



    Read more:
    Culture can build a better world: four key issues on Africa’s G20 agenda

    Beyond direct tourism, the spotlight on South African art and culture during this period could make a lasting impact on the creative economy, fostering growth and job creation.

    Physical celebration could be digitally amplified to make a lasting impression.

    A notable example is Spotify’s unveiling of its Detty December hub. The music streaming service intends celebrating the festive season across west Africa and South Africa with playlists of party tracks.

    Spotify’s Phiona Okumu explains:

    Detty December is a special time for our users in west Africa, and Ke Dezemba symbolises South Africa’s spirit of celebration.

    How to make it work

    The lessons from west African cities suggest that cultural economies thrive with:

    • flexible governance

    • inclusive participation

    • engaged diasporas

    • innovative business models.

    For Nigeria’s Detty December model to be sustainable it would require strategic policy support, urban planning integration and investment in creative infrastructure.

    A group of diasporans in Ghana at the AfroFuture festival.
    Fquasie/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Funding models such as memberships and sponsorships are crucial for the longevity of music festivals. Policy support and infrastructure investment are necessary to unlock the full potential of the creative sector.

    Cultural tourism, powerfully embodied by Detty December, is emerging as a viable economic strategy for African cities. This signals a broader recognition of culture’s economic power. It offers a compelling canvas for economic development and nation branding.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Detty December started as a Nigerian cultural moment. Now it’s spreading across the continent – and minting money – https://theconversation.com/detty-december-started-as-a-nigerian-cultural-moment-now-its-spreading-across-the-continent-and-minting-money-258949

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Can academics use AI to write journal papers? What the guidelines say

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sumaya Laher, Professor, University of the Witwatersrand

    Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to “intelligent machines and algorithms that can reason and adapt based on sets of rules and environments which mimic human intelligence”. This field is evolving rapidly and the education sector, for one, is abuzz with discussion on AI use for writing.

    This matters not just for academics, but for anyone relying on trustworthy information, from journalists and policymakers to educators and the public. Ensuring transparency in how AI is used protects the credibility of all published knowledge.



    Read more:
    AI in education: what those buzzwords mean

    In education and research, AI can generate text, improve writing style, and even analyse data. It saves time and resources by allowing quick summarising of work, language editing and reference checking. It also holds potential for enhancing scholarly work and even inspiring new ideas.

    Equally AI is able to generate entire pieces of work. Sometimes it’s difficult to distinguish original work written by an individual and work generated by AI.

    This is a serious concern in the academic world – for universities, researchers, lecturers and students. Some uses of AI are seen as acceptable and others are not (or not yet).



    Read more:
    AI can be a danger to students – 3 things universities must do

    As editor and editorial board member of several journals, and in my capacity as a researcher and professor of psychology, I have grappled with what counts as acceptable use of AI in academic writing. I looked to various published guidelines:

    The guidelines are unanimous that AI tools cannot be listed as co-authors or take responsibility for the content. Authors remain fully responsible for verifying the accuracy, ethical use and integrity of all AI-influenced content. Routine assistance does not need citation, but any substantive AI-generated content must be clearly referenced.

    Let’s unpack this a bit more.

    Assisted versus generated content

    In understanding AI use in academic writing, it’s important to distinguish between AI-assisted content and AI-generated content.

    AI-assisted content refers to work that is predominantly written by an individual but has been improved with the aid of AI tools. For example, an author might use AI to assist with grammar checks, enhance sentence clarity, or provide style suggestions. The author remains in control, and the AI merely acts as a tool to polish the final product.

    This kind of assistance is generally accepted by most publishers as well as the Committee on Publication Ethics, without the need for formal disclosure. That’s as long as the work remains original and the integrity of the research is upheld.

    AI-generated content is produced by the AI itself. This could mean that the AI tool generates significant portions of text, or even entire sections, based on detailed instructions (prompts) provided by the author.

    This raises ethical concerns, especially regarding originality, accuracy and authorship. Generative AI draws its content from various sources such as web scraping, public datasets, code repositories and user-generated content – basically any content that it is able to access. You can never be sure about the authenticity of the work. AI “hallucinations” are common. Generative AI might be plagiarising someone else’s work or infringing on copyright and you won’t know.



    Read more:
    What are AI hallucinations? Why AIs sometimes make things up

    Thus, for AI-generated content, authors are required to make clear and explicit disclosures. In many cases, this type of content may face restrictions. Publishers may even reject it outright, as outlined in the Committee on Publication Ethics guidelines.

    What’s allowed and what’s not

    Based on my readings of the guidelines, I offer some practical tips for using AI in academic writing. These are fairly simple and could be applicable across disciplines.

    • The guidelines all say AI tools can be used for routine tasks like improving grammar, revising sentence structure, or assisting with literature searches. These applications do not require specific acknowledgement.

    • Across the guidelines reviewed, AI generated content is not allowed unless there are clear reasons why this was necessary for the research and the content is clearly marked and referenced as such. Thus, depending on how AI is used, it must be referenced in the manuscript. This could be in the literature review, or in the methods or results section.

    • Sage and the Committee on Publication Ethics emphasise that authors must disclose when AI-generated content is used by citing this appropriately. There are different conventions for citing AI use but all seem to agree that the name of the generative tool used, the date accessed and the prompt used should be cited. This level of transparency is necessary to uphold the credibility of academic work.

    • Other aspects linked to AI assistance like correcting code, generating tables or figures, reducing word count or checking on analyses cannot be referenced directly in the body of the manuscript. In line with current best practice recommendations, this should be indicated at the end of the manuscript.

    • Authors are responsible for checking the accuracy of any AI content, whether AI assisted or AI generated, ensuring it’s free from bias, plagiarism, and potential copyright infringements.

    The final word (for now)

    AI tools can undoubtedly enhance the academic writing process, but their use must be approached with transparency, caution, and respect for ethical standards.

    Authors must remain vigilant in maintaining academic integrity, particularly when AI is involved. Authors should verify the accuracy and appropriateness of AI-generated content, ensuring that it doesn’t compromise the originality or validity of their work.



    Read more:
    South African university students use AI to help them understand – not to avoid work

    There have been excellent suggestions as to when the declaration of AI should be mandatory, optional and unnecessary. If unsure, the best advice would be to include the use of any form of AI (assisted or generated) in the acknowledgement.

    It is very likely that these recommendations will be revised in due course as AI continues to evolve. But it is equally important that we start somewhere. AI tools are here to stay. Let’s deal with it constructively and collaboratively.

    Sumaya Laher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can academics use AI to write journal papers? What the guidelines say – https://theconversation.com/can-academics-use-ai-to-write-journal-papers-what-the-guidelines-say-258824

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Women trapped with abusers: South Africa’s COVID lockdowns exposed serious protection gaps

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Marinei Herselman, Lecturer, University of Fort Hare

    The unintended consequences of measures introduced to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus from 2020 to 2022 have been studied extensively. Research in South Africa shows that some of these measures added to social ills, such as unemployment and poverty.

    Another impact of “lockdown” was on gender-based violence. The government’s Gender-Based Violence Command Centre reported over 120,000 cases within the first three weeks of lockdown.

    In the year 2019-20, 53,293 sexual offences were reported, an average of 146 per day. This was up from 52,420 in 2018-19. Most of these were cases of rape. The police recorded 42,289 rapes in 2019-20, up from 41,583 in 2018-19, an average of 116 rapes each day. Further, a total of 2,695 women were murdered in South Africa in 2019-20. This means a woman is murdered every three hours.

    The lockdown measures required people to remain indoors. Schools and non-essential establishments like restaurants were closed. Travelling internationally and between provinces was prohibited.

    Research showed that the lockdown measures trapped many women and children in abusive environments. The gender-based violence incidents highlighted gaps in support services and underscored the critical role of social workers in crisis situations.

    In a recent paper, we described our study of the impact the lockdown measures had on gender-based violence in Matatiele, a small town in South Africa’s Eastern Cape, one of the poorest regions in the country.

    The study highlighted the need to integrate gender-based violence support services into emergency plans to ensure continuity of care in times of crisis. In addition, the challenges faced by social workers during the pandemic showed systemic weaknesses in the support infrastructure.



    Read more:
    South African women face exclusion from society due to gender-based violence – how they’re fighting back

    We recommend prioritising gender-based violence services, expanding the social work workforce, and ensuring accessible, effective support mechanisms to safeguard survivors. By engaging local and provincial partners through cross-sector collaboration, South Africa can build a more equitable society and empower survivors during future emergencies.

    Interviewing survivors of violence

    Our findings were based on interviews with 30 survivors of gender-based violence and five social workers at the Thuthuzela Care Centre in Matatiele, which provides support for rape survivors. Twenty-four of the survivors (80%) were women and six (20%) were males. The participants were aged 18-35.

    We found that 63.3% of survivors experienced gender-based violence differently during the pandemic, primarily because access to support services was reduced. Key findings were that:

    • survivors found it difficult to reach police stations, hospitals and support centres

    • a lack of transport and staffing made access to services even more difficult than usual

    • survivors were often imprisoned with their abusers, making it nearly impossible to escape the abusive environment

    • the closure of schools and community centres destroyed additional refuges and support networks

    • social workers reported that remote counselling methods, such as telephone calls, were less effective

    • poor internet connection and the inability to meet in person limited the quality of psychosocial support provided

    • many perpetrators faced job losses and economic hardships; this led to increased stress and violence.

    Our findings highlight how public health crises can worsen existing social vulnerabilities. The COVID-19 pandemic starkly illustrated the vulnerability of survivors during crises and the role of social workers in providing support.



    Read more:
    Spoken word poetry challenges gender-based violence in Namibia

    Women’s experiences

    As shown in the table, some participants said their experiences of abuse were the same before and during COVID-19. This might be because a participant was abused during the pandemic and had not been a victim before.

    Most of the research participants said their experience of gender-based violence was different from how it had been before COVID-19. Asked to explain, most of them responded in similar ways.

    One of the women said:

    I have difficulty escaping my abuser.

    Another said:

    I struggled to sleep, and I was anxious for a long time. I accepted the situation and told myself that I will be fine. I was abused by a stranger, which made it difficult for me to get justice but I told myself that abuse is something that you cannot run away from.

    Lack of sleep is a common challenge for many survivors of gender-based violence.

    One of the male survivors in the study, a married man, spoke of the difficulty of dealing with societal norms which are rooted in patriarchy. There’s a local saying which captures the typical attitude: indoda yokwenyani ayikhali (“a real man does not cry”).

    There appeared to be a general sense that gender-based violence would not change, so women and men just accepted and normalised it.



    Read more:
    Men abused by women don’t all fight back. Some believe a strong man is non-violent – South African study

    Next steps

    An effective response to gender-based violence requires sufficient staffing of response facilities. There is also a need for robust communication tools and training to handle remote support scenarios as happened during COVID.

    Gender-based violence is a serious problem that needs a multi-faceted response. Governments, and non-profit, non-governmental and
    civil society organisations must work together. This will help in achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal 5 on gender equality. Gender equality is a fundamental human right. It is a foundation for a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable world. While some progress has been made in recent decades, the world is not on track to achieve gender equality by 2030.

    To lessen the impact of future crises on survivors of gender-based violence, several steps are essential:

    • the government must recognise support services as critical in emergencies; social workers must be classified as essential personnel so that they can continue their work without restrictions

    • essential services such as safe shelters, mental health support and legal aid must be in place, and healthcare services must be fully available, well-equipped and well-staffed

    • the government must expand and train the social worker workforce, and provide specialised training for any crisis situation in the future

    • there is need to develop support channels, including online platforms, helplines and mobile outreach programmes

    • investing in reliable communication technologies and transportation can help people reach support services

    • long-term strategies should focus on reducing gender inequalities and challenging patriarchal norms.

    Bongeka Zawani, a master’s student at the University of Fort Hare, carried out the study this article is based on.

    Marinei Herselman and Bongeka Zwani received funding from the University of Fort Hare GMRDC for this study.

    – ref. Women trapped with abusers: South Africa’s COVID lockdowns exposed serious protection gaps – https://theconversation.com/women-trapped-with-abusers-south-africas-covid-lockdowns-exposed-serious-protection-gaps-243198

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

    The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has raged since April 2023. It’s turned Sudan into the site of one of the world’s most catastrophic humanitarian and displacement crises.

    At least 150,000 people have been killed. More than 14 million have been displaced, with over 3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Once a vibrant capital city, Khartoum is now a “burnt-out shell”.

    This devastating war, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political and economic tensions, has been compounded by what international and regional actors have done and failed to do. As Amnesty International notes, the international response remains “woefully inadequate”.

    The problem lies in the fact that external involvement has not been neutral. Instead of halting the conflict, many external players have complicated it. In some cases, international interventions have escalated it.

    More than 10 countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia have been drawn into Sudan’s war. This has turned it into a proxy conflict that reflects the interests of external actors, such as Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

    Several actors have taken sides.

    Saudi Arabia, for instance, backs the Sudanese army. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Egypt, citing historical ties, backs the army. For their part, Ethiopia and Eritrea reportedly support the paramilitary group. Chad has been accused of facilitating arms shipments to the Rapid Support Forces via its eastern airports. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Iran have also been linked to diplomatic and military support to Sudan’s army.

    These geopolitical entanglements have made peace nearly impossible, deepening the conflict instead of resolving it.

    I have studied Africa’s governance failures for more than 30 years, from military elites and coups to state capture and political instability. Based on this, my view is that Sudan’s conflict cannot be resolved without serious international commitment to neutrality and peace.



    Read more:
    Sudan’s peace mediation should be led by the African Union: 3 reasons why

    The involvement of foreign actors on opposing sides must be reversed. International involvement must be premised on helping the Sudanese people develop the capacity to resolve governance problems themselves.

    For this to happen, regional diplomacy must be stepped up. The African Union must assert its legitimacy and take the lead in addressing this challenging crisis. It can do this by putting pressure on member states to ensure that any ceasefire agreements are enforced.

    The East African Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development can provide assistance in securing a peace agreement and ensuring it’s enforced. Members of these continental organisations can encourage external actors to limit their intervention in Sudan to activities that promote democratic governance and sustainable development.

    The African Union

    The African Union should play a central role in bringing peace to Sudan. But its absence has been conspicuous.

    Despite adopting the “African solutions to African problems” mantra, the African Union has neither held Sudan’s warlords accountable nor put in place adequate civilian protection measures.

    First, it could have worked closely with the UN to deploy a mission to Sudan with a mandate to protect civilians, monitor human rights (especially the rights of women and girls), assist in the return of all displaced persons and prevent any further attacks on civilians.

    Second, the African Union could have sent an expert group to investigate human rights violations, especially sexual violence. The results could have been submitted to the union’s Peace and Security Council for further action.

    Third, the African Union could have worked closely with regional and international actors, including the Arab League. This would ensure a unified approach to the conflict, based on the interests of Sudanese people for peace and development.

    Finally, the AU could have addressed the root causes of Sudan’s conflicts, which include extreme poverty, inequality, political exclusion and economic marginalisation.

    The African Union could also make use of the insights and knowledge gleaned by African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who have attempted to mediate, but have failed. The AU should also use the political expertise of elder statesmen, such as Thabo Mbeki, Moussa Faki and Olusegun Obasanjo, to help address the conflict and humanitarian crisis.

    The United Arab Emirates

    The UAE is alleged to back the paramilitary troops in the war. In recent years, the UAE has become increasingly involved in African conflicts. It has supported various factions to conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel region and Libya.

    Its increased involvement in Africa is driven by several strategic interests. These include fighting terrorism, securing maritime routes, and expanding its trade and influence.



    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE

    In 2009, the UAE helped Sudan mediate its border conflict with Chad. The UAE supported the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, as well as Sudan’s transitional military council.

    In 2021, the UAE signed a strategic partnership with Sudan to modernise its political institutions and return the country to the international community. The UAE has stated that it has taken a neutral position in the present conflict. However, on 6 March 2025, Sudan brought a case against the UAE to the International Court of Justice. It accused the UAE of complicity in genocide, alleging that the UAE “has been arming the RSF with the aim of wiping out the non-Arab Massalit population of West Darfur.”

    The United States

    During his first term, US president Donald Trump spearheaded the Abraham Accords. These agreements were aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Sudan. Subsequently, Sudan was removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

    The accords appeared to have brought Khartoum closer to Washington. They provided avenues for the type of engagement that could have placed it in good stead when Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

    However, Sudan’s internal political and economic instability, including the present civil war, has complicated the situation.

    The Abraham Accords were a significant foreign policy achievement for Trump. A peaceful, democratically governed, and economically stable and prosperous Sudan could serve as the foundation for Trump’s “circle of peace” in the Middle East.

    But Trump and his administration are preoccupied with other domestic and foreign policy priorities. During his May 2025 visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump did not officially address the conflict in Sudan. Instead, he placed emphasis on securing business deals and investments.

    The European Union

    The European Union has strongly condemned the violence and the atrocities committed during the war in Sudan, especially against children and women. The organisation has appealed for an immediate and lasting ceasefire while noting that Sudan faces the “most catastrophic humanitarian crisis of the 21st century”.

    Unfortunately, member countries will remain preoccupied with helping Ukraine, especially given the growing uncertainty in Washington’s relationship with the authorities in Kyiv.

    The preoccupation and focus of the EU and the US on Gaza, Ukraine and Iran may, however, be underestimating the geopolitical risks Sudan’s war is generating.

    A peaceful and democratically governed Sudan can contribute to peace not just in the region, but also in many other parts of the world.

    What now?

    To end Sudan’s war and prevent future ones, international and African actors must do more than issue statements. They must act coherently, collectively and with genuine commitment to the Sudanese people’s right to peace, democratic governance and sustainable development.

    Democracy and the rule of law are key to peaceful coexistence and sustainable development in Sudan. However, establishing and sustaining institutions that enhance and support democracy is the job of the Sudanese people. The external community can provide the financial support that Sudan is likely to need. It can also support the strengthening of electoral systems, civic education and citizen trust in public institutions.

    John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them – https://theconversation.com/sudan-foreign-interests-are-deepening-a-devastating-war-only-regional-diplomacy-can-stop-them-259824

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

    The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has raged since April 2023. It’s turned Sudan into the site of one of the world’s most catastrophic humanitarian and displacement crises.

    At least 150,000 people have been killed. More than 14 million have been displaced, with over 3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Once a vibrant capital city, Khartoum is now a “burnt-out shell”.

    This devastating war, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political and economic tensions, has been compounded by what international and regional actors have done and failed to do. As Amnesty International notes, the international response remains “woefully inadequate”.

    The problem lies in the fact that external involvement has not been neutral. Instead of halting the conflict, many external players have complicated it. In some cases, international interventions have escalated it.

    More than 10 countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia have been drawn into Sudan’s war. This has turned it into a proxy conflict that reflects the interests of external actors, such as Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

    Several actors have taken sides.

    Saudi Arabia, for instance, backs the Sudanese army. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Egypt, citing historical ties, backs the army. For their part, Ethiopia and Eritrea reportedly support the paramilitary group. Chad has been accused of facilitating arms shipments to the Rapid Support Forces via its eastern airports. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Iran have also been linked to diplomatic and military support to Sudan’s army.

    These geopolitical entanglements have made peace nearly impossible, deepening the conflict instead of resolving it.

    I have studied Africa’s governance failures for more than 30 years, from military elites and coups to state capture and political instability. Based on this, my view is that Sudan’s conflict cannot be resolved without serious international commitment to neutrality and peace.



    Read more:
    Sudan’s peace mediation should be led by the African Union: 3 reasons why

    The involvement of foreign actors on opposing sides must be reversed. International involvement must be premised on helping the Sudanese people develop the capacity to resolve governance problems themselves.

    For this to happen, regional diplomacy must be stepped up. The African Union must assert its legitimacy and take the lead in addressing this challenging crisis. It can do this by putting pressure on member states to ensure that any ceasefire agreements are enforced.

    The East African Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development can provide assistance in securing a peace agreement and ensuring it’s enforced. Members of these continental organisations can encourage external actors to limit their intervention in Sudan to activities that promote democratic governance and sustainable development.

    The African Union

    The African Union should play a central role in bringing peace to Sudan. But its absence has been conspicuous.

    Despite adopting the “African solutions to African problems” mantra, the African Union has neither held Sudan’s warlords accountable nor put in place adequate civilian protection measures.

    First, it could have worked closely with the UN to deploy a mission to Sudan with a mandate to protect civilians, monitor human rights (especially the rights of women and girls), assist in the return of all displaced persons and prevent any further attacks on civilians.

    Second, the African Union could have sent an expert group to investigate human rights violations, especially sexual violence. The results could have been submitted to the union’s Peace and Security Council for further action.

    Third, the African Union could have worked closely with regional and international actors, including the Arab League. This would ensure a unified approach to the conflict, based on the interests of Sudanese people for peace and development.

    Finally, the AU could have addressed the root causes of Sudan’s conflicts, which include extreme poverty, inequality, political exclusion and economic marginalisation.

    The African Union could also make use of the insights and knowledge gleaned by African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who have attempted to mediate, but have failed. The AU should also use the political expertise of elder statesmen, such as Thabo Mbeki, Moussa Faki and Olusegun Obasanjo, to help address the conflict and humanitarian crisis.

    The United Arab Emirates

    The UAE is alleged to back the paramilitary troops in the war. In recent years, the UAE has become increasingly involved in African conflicts. It has supported various factions to conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel region and Libya.

    Its increased involvement in Africa is driven by several strategic interests. These include fighting terrorism, securing maritime routes, and expanding its trade and influence.



    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE

    In 2009, the UAE helped Sudan mediate its border conflict with Chad. The UAE supported the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, as well as Sudan’s transitional military council.

    In 2021, the UAE signed a strategic partnership with Sudan to modernise its political institutions and return the country to the international community. The UAE has stated that it has taken a neutral position in the present conflict. However, on 6 March 2025, Sudan brought a case against the UAE to the International Court of Justice. It accused the UAE of complicity in genocide, alleging that the UAE “has been arming the RSF with the aim of wiping out the non-Arab Massalit population of West Darfur.”

    The United States

    During his first term, US president Donald Trump spearheaded the Abraham Accords. These agreements were aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Sudan. Subsequently, Sudan was removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

    The accords appeared to have brought Khartoum closer to Washington. They provided avenues for the type of engagement that could have placed it in good stead when Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

    However, Sudan’s internal political and economic instability, including the present civil war, has complicated the situation.

    The Abraham Accords were a significant foreign policy achievement for Trump. A peaceful, democratically governed, and economically stable and prosperous Sudan could serve as the foundation for Trump’s “circle of peace” in the Middle East.

    But Trump and his administration are preoccupied with other domestic and foreign policy priorities. During his May 2025 visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump did not officially address the conflict in Sudan. Instead, he placed emphasis on securing business deals and investments.

    The European Union

    The European Union has strongly condemned the violence and the atrocities committed during the war in Sudan, especially against children and women. The organisation has appealed for an immediate and lasting ceasefire while noting that Sudan faces the “most catastrophic humanitarian crisis of the 21st century”.

    Unfortunately, member countries will remain preoccupied with helping Ukraine, especially given the growing uncertainty in Washington’s relationship with the authorities in Kyiv.

    The preoccupation and focus of the EU and the US on Gaza, Ukraine and Iran may, however, be underestimating the geopolitical risks Sudan’s war is generating.

    A peaceful and democratically governed Sudan can contribute to peace not just in the region, but also in many other parts of the world.

    What now?

    To end Sudan’s war and prevent future ones, international and African actors must do more than issue statements. They must act coherently, collectively and with genuine commitment to the Sudanese people’s right to peace, democratic governance and sustainable development.

    Democracy and the rule of law are key to peaceful coexistence and sustainable development in Sudan. However, establishing and sustaining institutions that enhance and support democracy is the job of the Sudanese people. The external community can provide the financial support that Sudan is likely to need. It can also support the strengthening of electoral systems, civic education and citizen trust in public institutions.

    John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them – https://theconversation.com/sudan-foreign-interests-are-deepening-a-devastating-war-only-regional-diplomacy-can-stop-them-259824

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Five ways you can use mantra meditation every day to boost your wellbeing

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jennifer Donnelly, Doctoral Researcher, Meditation-based Interventions in Clinical Settings, Centre of Positive Health Sciences, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

    Andrii Iemelianenko/Shutterstock

    Meditation has become a popular subject on self-improvement podcasts, corporate strategy days and health campaigns. But beyond the buzz, there’s a growing scientific and clinical interest in meditation as a tool to regulate attention and promote relaxation. These are increasingly recognised as central to wellbeing in a world of constant notifications, high demands and information overload.

    Mantra meditation has roots in ancient contemplative traditions across many cultures. At its simplest, a mantra is a word, phrase, or sound repeated silently or aloud to focus the mind, steady attention and support relaxation. Depending on the tradition, mantras may carry deep spiritual, linguistic or energetic significance. But in a more personal or secular practice, you might choose or create a mantra that’s meaningful only to you.

    It’s important to note that mantra meditation is distinct from focusing on breathing. While both help develop concentration and awareness, the mantra, not the breath, is the primary anchor of attention in mantra meditation. You may notice the breathing naturally while meditating, but the repetition of the mantra is what gently draws your mind back when it wanders.

    Emerging research suggests that mantra meditation may have promising benefits, from reducing stress and burnout to improving mood, focus and sleep. Focusing on a mantra to disengage from an overactive mind can be a valuable tool in today’s fast-paced world.

    Mantra meditations moments

    A simple starting point is to choose a phrase that resonates with you, something easy to remember and calming. For example: “I am … here now.” Or a word like “ease” or “peace”. Some people visualise a calming image, like a steady tree or a gentle wave, repeating it silently in their mind. The key is to return to your chosen anchor, your mantra, each time your mind drifts.

    You don’t need a special cushion, app or ritual. Below are five everyday moments when you can try this light mantra-practice:

    • On public transport: Use a few minutes of your commute to mentally repeat your mantra. The surrounding noise and movement can actually enhance the practice. When your mind wanders, which it will, gently return to your anchor.

    • While brushing your teeth: This brief, repetitive activity is already part of your day. Use the rhythm of brushing as a cue to repeat your mantra internally.

    • During your first sips of tea or coffee: Let this be a pause point. Breathe naturally. Repeat your chosen phrase. Even a few seconds of presence can shift the tone of your morning.

    Your first morning coffee could become a moment of deep calm in an otherwise hectic day.
    NDAB Creativity/Shutterstock

    • Instead of scrolling: Replace one moment of habitual phone use with one minute of mantra repetition. Notice the impulse to scroll, and meet it with your mantra instead. You can scroll later if you want; the point is to notice the choice.

    • Before stepping out of the car: Pause for 30-60 seconds before entering a new environment, whether that’s work, home or a social setting. This brief ritual can be a surprisingly powerful reset when transitioning to a new destination or activity.

    Longer sessions may deepen the effects, but short, consistent moments of practice are what build tolerance and insight. Meditation doesn’t always begin with peace. More often, it starts with the uncomfortable awareness of how distracted our thoughts can become. That moment of noticing is not a failure, it’s the practice.

    For parents, especially those with young children, meditation might feel unrealistic. But mantra practice can be adapted. Children often respond well to repetitive, rhythmic exercises. Try counting fingers together, repeating a calming phrase, or simply taking three breaths. It might not look like traditional meditation, but it can still create a shared moment of calm.

    Even counting fingers with children could be a way to experience a moment of togetherness and calm.
    YAKOBCHUK VIACHESLAV/Shutterstock

    For those living with chronic pain, health challenges or intense life transitions, meditation can sometimes make discomfort feel more present. In such cases, stillness might initially increase distress.

    Some research confirms that meditation can have uncomfortable or adverse effects, and distraction may be necessary at times. Even so, carefully introduced mantra meditation techniques or similar practices may support people living with chronic conditions by helping shift how discomfort is experienced, if approached with care, and suitable supports are offered.

    Mantra meditation isn’t about perfect focus, or fixing all our problems. Its strength lies in offering you a portable, repeatable practice to build awareness, one moment at a time.

    So before you move on after reading, try this: take 30 seconds, close your eyes, and return to your mantra. Just for now.

    Jennifer Donnelly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Five ways you can use mantra meditation every day to boost your wellbeing – https://theconversation.com/five-ways-you-can-use-mantra-meditation-every-day-to-boost-your-wellbeing-259313

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Five ways you can use mantra meditation every day to boost your wellbeing

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jennifer Donnelly, Doctoral Researcher, Meditation-based Interventions in Clinical Settings, Centre of Positive Health Sciences, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

    Andrii Iemelianenko/Shutterstock

    Meditation has become a popular subject on self-improvement podcasts, corporate strategy days and health campaigns. But beyond the buzz, there’s a growing scientific and clinical interest in meditation as a tool to regulate attention and promote relaxation. These are increasingly recognised as central to wellbeing in a world of constant notifications, high demands and information overload.

    Mantra meditation has roots in ancient contemplative traditions across many cultures. At its simplest, a mantra is a word, phrase, or sound repeated silently or aloud to focus the mind, steady attention and support relaxation. Depending on the tradition, mantras may carry deep spiritual, linguistic or energetic significance. But in a more personal or secular practice, you might choose or create a mantra that’s meaningful only to you.

    It’s important to note that mantra meditation is distinct from focusing on breathing. While both help develop concentration and awareness, the mantra, not the breath, is the primary anchor of attention in mantra meditation. You may notice the breathing naturally while meditating, but the repetition of the mantra is what gently draws your mind back when it wanders.

    Emerging research suggests that mantra meditation may have promising benefits, from reducing stress and burnout to improving mood, focus and sleep. Focusing on a mantra to disengage from an overactive mind can be a valuable tool in today’s fast-paced world.

    Mantra meditations moments

    A simple starting point is to choose a phrase that resonates with you, something easy to remember and calming. For example: “I am … here now.” Or a word like “ease” or “peace”. Some people visualise a calming image, like a steady tree or a gentle wave, repeating it silently in their mind. The key is to return to your chosen anchor, your mantra, each time your mind drifts.

    You don’t need a special cushion, app or ritual. Below are five everyday moments when you can try this light mantra-practice:

    • On public transport: Use a few minutes of your commute to mentally repeat your mantra. The surrounding noise and movement can actually enhance the practice. When your mind wanders, which it will, gently return to your anchor.

    • While brushing your teeth: This brief, repetitive activity is already part of your day. Use the rhythm of brushing as a cue to repeat your mantra internally.

    • During your first sips of tea or coffee: Let this be a pause point. Breathe naturally. Repeat your chosen phrase. Even a few seconds of presence can shift the tone of your morning.

    Your first morning coffee could become a moment of deep calm in an otherwise hectic day.
    NDAB Creativity/Shutterstock

    • Instead of scrolling: Replace one moment of habitual phone use with one minute of mantra repetition. Notice the impulse to scroll, and meet it with your mantra instead. You can scroll later if you want; the point is to notice the choice.

    • Before stepping out of the car: Pause for 30-60 seconds before entering a new environment, whether that’s work, home or a social setting. This brief ritual can be a surprisingly powerful reset when transitioning to a new destination or activity.

    Longer sessions may deepen the effects, but short, consistent moments of practice are what build tolerance and insight. Meditation doesn’t always begin with peace. More often, it starts with the uncomfortable awareness of how distracted our thoughts can become. That moment of noticing is not a failure, it’s the practice.

    For parents, especially those with young children, meditation might feel unrealistic. But mantra practice can be adapted. Children often respond well to repetitive, rhythmic exercises. Try counting fingers together, repeating a calming phrase, or simply taking three breaths. It might not look like traditional meditation, but it can still create a shared moment of calm.

    Even counting fingers with children could be a way to experience a moment of togetherness and calm.
    YAKOBCHUK VIACHESLAV/Shutterstock

    For those living with chronic pain, health challenges or intense life transitions, meditation can sometimes make discomfort feel more present. In such cases, stillness might initially increase distress.

    Some research confirms that meditation can have uncomfortable or adverse effects, and distraction may be necessary at times. Even so, carefully introduced mantra meditation techniques or similar practices may support people living with chronic conditions by helping shift how discomfort is experienced, if approached with care, and suitable supports are offered.

    Mantra meditation isn’t about perfect focus, or fixing all our problems. Its strength lies in offering you a portable, repeatable practice to build awareness, one moment at a time.

    So before you move on after reading, try this: take 30 seconds, close your eyes, and return to your mantra. Just for now.

    Jennifer Donnelly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Five ways you can use mantra meditation every day to boost your wellbeing – https://theconversation.com/five-ways-you-can-use-mantra-meditation-every-day-to-boost-your-wellbeing-259313

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How huge migrating animal puppets captivate in ways that climate news can’t

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matt Smith, Reader in Applied Theatre and Puppetry, University of Portsmouth

    A herd of puppet animals is migrating north from Africa. This 12,000 mile journey represents wildlife’s response to the climate crisis as species are forced to move north due to rising temperatures. As The Herds travels through the UK en route to the Arctic, the organisers hope this artistic project will help spectators along the route understand what is happening to the environment.

    Events like this are “louder than traffic”, according to US-based puppeteer Peter Schumann. The giant puppets are a visual tool to capture the public’s imagination.

    Over the past 30 years working as a theatre scholar, I have observed that puppetry has become an important artform for telling stories that explore the way we respond to and interact with nature.

    Like traditional street theatre such as Punch and Judy, puppets grab the audience’s attention against the backdrop of everyday life. Now with the rise of social media, modern culture is now even more visually oriented. Puppetry is a big hit in these new digital spaces, according to some researchers.

    The Herds project was created by a theatre company called Little Walk after the success of Little Amal, a Syrian refugee puppet project about human migration and climate relocation. One of the Little Amal puppeteers told me that, ironically, it was easier for the puppets to cross borders but the human artists and puppeteers had to take major detours to carry out the Little Amal project in 17 countries.

    The Herds aims to inspire people to think about the direct consequences of the climate crisis as the animal puppets travel from Africa to the Arctic. Puppeteers animate the life-size puppets in full view of the audience. As each puppeteer focuses on moving the puppet, they transfer their energy and emotion into the puppets body.

    The Herds takes puppets on a 12,000-mile-long migration from Africa to the Arctic.

    I was trained in these techniques during the 1990s. I know that when a performer intensely focuses on a performing object, the result is mesmerising. It can enable the audience to feel empathy for another non-human being. The aim is to cut through discourses and affect people directly with images performed beyond language and local agendas.

    Puppetry is both an interdisciplinary and interactive artform that is as old as human culture. Animated figures have been employed in both the popular spaces of folk theatres and the avant garde spaces of high art. Puppet characters can tell very simple stories in slapstick shows or speak to complex issues in projects like The Herds.

    Even having researched puppetry in communities for more than three decades, the many varied uses for puppetry continue to surprise me. Beyond theatres, puppets can affect people in everyday spaces, just as The Herds does. My book, published in 2024, explores how the popular global practice of puppetry by communities and groups brings pleasure through both making and performing with puppets.

    Communicating complexity

    In 2023, I collaborated with scientists at the Centre for Enzyme Innovation at University of Portsmouth who are developing enzymes that can break down plastic waste. We found that puppets could help to communicate complex science about innovative recycling to audiences through workshops and a showcase event. The puppets as entertaining figures symbolising ideas could animate the science and engage audiences in a playful and non-elitist fashion.

    Puppetry is a powerful and engaging art form that can capture the imagination of audiences globally. Even during our advanced technological times puppetry is still employed both by technologies – for example our own XR lab used puppets recently exploring their use with avatars.

    With successful West End productions in London such as Lion King and War Horse (a show which changed the fortunes of the National Theatre, puppetry has become mainstream in the UK. Now with The Herds, animal puppets are having a global reach.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Matt Smith receives funding from Royal Academy of Engineering for the enzyme puppet project.

    – ref. How huge migrating animal puppets captivate in ways that climate news can’t – https://theconversation.com/how-huge-migrating-animal-puppets-captivate-in-ways-that-climate-news-cant-259592

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How huge migrating animal puppets captivate in ways that climate news can’t

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matt Smith, Reader in Applied Theatre and Puppetry, University of Portsmouth

    A herd of puppet animals is migrating north from Africa. This 12,000 mile journey represents wildlife’s response to the climate crisis as species are forced to move north due to rising temperatures. As The Herds travels through the UK en route to the Arctic, the organisers hope this artistic project will help spectators along the route understand what is happening to the environment.

    Events like this are “louder than traffic”, according to US-based puppeteer Peter Schumann. The giant puppets are a visual tool to capture the public’s imagination.

    Over the past 30 years working as a theatre scholar, I have observed that puppetry has become an important artform for telling stories that explore the way we respond to and interact with nature.

    Like traditional street theatre such as Punch and Judy, puppets grab the audience’s attention against the backdrop of everyday life. Now with the rise of social media, modern culture is now even more visually oriented. Puppetry is a big hit in these new digital spaces, according to some researchers.

    The Herds project was created by a theatre company called Little Walk after the success of Little Amal, a Syrian refugee puppet project about human migration and climate relocation. One of the Little Amal puppeteers told me that, ironically, it was easier for the puppets to cross borders but the human artists and puppeteers had to take major detours to carry out the Little Amal project in 17 countries.

    The Herds aims to inspire people to think about the direct consequences of the climate crisis as the animal puppets travel from Africa to the Arctic. Puppeteers animate the life-size puppets in full view of the audience. As each puppeteer focuses on moving the puppet, they transfer their energy and emotion into the puppets body.

    The Herds takes puppets on a 12,000-mile-long migration from Africa to the Arctic.

    I was trained in these techniques during the 1990s. I know that when a performer intensely focuses on a performing object, the result is mesmerising. It can enable the audience to feel empathy for another non-human being. The aim is to cut through discourses and affect people directly with images performed beyond language and local agendas.

    Puppetry is both an interdisciplinary and interactive artform that is as old as human culture. Animated figures have been employed in both the popular spaces of folk theatres and the avant garde spaces of high art. Puppet characters can tell very simple stories in slapstick shows or speak to complex issues in projects like The Herds.

    Even having researched puppetry in communities for more than three decades, the many varied uses for puppetry continue to surprise me. Beyond theatres, puppets can affect people in everyday spaces, just as The Herds does. My book, published in 2024, explores how the popular global practice of puppetry by communities and groups brings pleasure through both making and performing with puppets.

    Communicating complexity

    In 2023, I collaborated with scientists at the Centre for Enzyme Innovation at University of Portsmouth who are developing enzymes that can break down plastic waste. We found that puppets could help to communicate complex science about innovative recycling to audiences through workshops and a showcase event. The puppets as entertaining figures symbolising ideas could animate the science and engage audiences in a playful and non-elitist fashion.

    Puppetry is a powerful and engaging art form that can capture the imagination of audiences globally. Even during our advanced technological times puppetry is still employed both by technologies – for example our own XR lab used puppets recently exploring their use with avatars.

    With successful West End productions in London such as Lion King and War Horse (a show which changed the fortunes of the National Theatre, puppetry has become mainstream in the UK. Now with The Herds, animal puppets are having a global reach.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Matt Smith receives funding from Royal Academy of Engineering for the enzyme puppet project.

    – ref. How huge migrating animal puppets captivate in ways that climate news can’t – https://theconversation.com/how-huge-migrating-animal-puppets-captivate-in-ways-that-climate-news-cant-259592

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Grilling with lump charcoal: Is US-grown hardwood really in that bag?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Adriana Costa, Assistant Professor of Sustainable Bioproducts, Mississippi State University

    When you’re getting ready to cook, do you know what’s burning underneath? Alexandr Baranov/iStock/Getty Images Plus

    People dedicated to the art of grilling often choose lump charcoal – actual pieces of wood that have been turned into charcoal – over briquettes, which are compressed charcoal dust with other ingredients to keep the dust together and help it burn better.

    The kinds of wood used to make lump charcoal affect how it burns and how the food tastes when grilled. Dedicated grillers are often willing to pay a premium for higher heat, no additives, particular flavors and the cleaner burn they get from particular wood species in lump charcoal.

    Buyers probably expect the label to accurately report how much charcoal they are getting, what kind of wood it is, and where the wood was grown.

    A spot-check I helped conduct on lump charcoal for sale in the U.S. has revealed that the information on the label does not always match what is inside the bag. Customers might not know what they are actually buying, potentially affecting their purchasing choices and even their grilling experience.

    Origin matters

    Charcoal is made from wood heated in a low-oxygen environment to remove water and volatile compounds. This process leaves behind a carbon-rich material that burns hotter and more cleanly than raw wood, making it ideal for grilling.

    The origin of the trees used affects charcoal’s ecological sustainability. Some charcoal produced in Mexico, Paraguay and Brazil has been linked to deforestation and unsustainable logging practices. Charcoal from hardwood trees harvested in the U.S. is generally considered to be more sustainable.

    We decided to investigate more deeply what consumers are actually getting when they buy a bag of lump charcoal.

    We looked at a range of products, some of which were labeled as from the U.S., some from other countries and others that did not specify a country of origin.

    We purchased one bag each of 15 major U.S. lump charcoal brands online. We did not identify the specific producers. Instead, we wanted to give an overall sense of the products available on the market and evaluate how closely product claims on the packaging matched what was actually in the bags.

    Kinds of charcoal we found

    We determined the type of wood the charcoal was made from by examining each lump under a microscope or handheld magnifying lens and matching the patterns in the wood structure with the ones in our collection.

    Identifying the species allowed us to broadly infer the origin of the charcoal based on where those kinds of trees typically grow.

    Nearly half of all the lump charcoal we examined was oak or mesquite, which are both hardwoods that grow in North America, including in the U.S. and Mexico.

    In two out of five bags claiming their charcoal had come from the U.S., 15% or more of the material was actually tropical woods, such as ipe, which are not native to the U.S. These woods may have been harvested unsustainably. Other species we found included pine and sweet gum, which perform poorly as grilling woods.

    Much of the tropical wood was in small fragments, which made us think it might have been intentionally used as cheap filler.

    We found one bag that was labeled “One ingredient: Oak hardwood” that contained no oak at all. Instead, it was a mix of at least six tropical woods.

    At left, a cross section of a piece of red oak lump charcoal under magnification, beside a cross section of a piece of raw red oak wood.
    Wiedenhoeft and Costa

    What else was in the bag?

    We also discovered concerns related to product weight and the quantity of extraneous material in the bags. The Fair Packaging and Labeling Act is a U.S. law that requires product containers to carry labels that accurately describe the contents. The National Institute of Standards and Technology has specific methods for measuring and characterizing contents of packaged goods.

    These requirements do allow some variations in weight, but nearly half the bags we examined were underfilled, and one-third were far enough underweight that their label claims fell outside what is legally acceptable.

    Also, in every bag we found bark and tiny charcoal fragments, which burn quickly and unevenly. Six bags had rocks in them. Without those extra materials, all 15 bags were underweight, and none gave buyers as much effective grilling fuel as they promised.

    So when consumers pay more for what they think is a premium charcoal product, they may, in fact, be getting nothing of the sort.

    Adriana Costa has received funding from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, McIntire Stennis, USDA Agricultural Research Service, and the USDA Forest Products Laboratory. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy.

    – ref. Grilling with lump charcoal: Is US-grown hardwood really in that bag? – https://theconversation.com/grilling-with-lump-charcoal-is-us-grown-hardwood-really-in-that-bag-258157

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Five prescription drugs that can make it harder to cope with the heat

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

    Some prescription drugs affect our ability to sweat, which is an important cooling mechanism. Doucefleur/ Shutterstock

    As temperatures rise, so does the risk of heat-related illness – especially for people taking certain prescription drugs.

    The body uses several mechanisms to regulate temperature: sweating, blood flow to the skin and fluid balance. But some commonly prescribed drugs interfere with these processes, making it harder to stay cool.

    Here are a few you should know about this summer:

    1. Antidepressants

    Two specific types of antidepressants – selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and tricyclics (TCAs) – may make summer harder to cope with. They could even cause heat intolerance due to how they affect the body’s ability to sweat.

    Both these antidepressants are believed to partly work by affecting neurotransmitter levels in the brain – primarily serotonin and noradrenaline. However, they may also affect other neurotransmitters.

    For instance, TCAs can block acetylcholine, a neurotransmitter important for sweating. This may cause some patients to sweat less. On a hot day, this could make it hard to cool down.

    However, TCAs also increase noradrenaline levels, a neurotransmitter that stimulates sweat glands. This can increase sweating. In fact, both SSRIs and TCAs can increase sweating in users. Data shows up to 14% of antidepressant users experience this side-effect.

    SSRIs may also interfere with the hypothalamus – the brain region that controls body temperature and tells the sweat glands to start producing sweat. But this signal may be affected by the increased serotonin levels.

    Since sweating is a key cooling mechanism, any disruptions to this process can lead to heat-related illness. Excess sweating may also cause dehydration if fluids aren’t replaced.

    2. Antipsychotics

    Antipsychotics are used to treat psychosis, which can occur in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. They do this by blocking the neurotransmitter dopamine – which in turn affects levels of the neurotransmitter serotonin. This can disrupt the hypothalamus’s ability to sense and respond to body temperature changes.

    As a result, someone taking an antipsychotic might not feel overheated or thirsty when it’s hot out. This can cause low blood pressure and reduced heart function. The body then tries to compensate by narrowing the blood vessels and holding in heat. This in turn reduces sweating and makes it harder to cool down properly.

    Additionally, antipsychotics have anticholinergic properties. This means they block the action of acetylcholine, making it harder to sweat.

    3. Heart medications

    Beta-blockers are used to manage heart failure and arrhythmias. They do this by lowering heart rate and reducing how forcefully the heart pumps. But this can limit blood flow to the skin – making it harder for the body to release heat on hot days.

    Diuretics are also commonly used in the treatment of high blood pressure or heart failure. But as these drugs increase urine output, this may lead to dehydration and electrolyte imbalances during hot weather. With less fluid available, the body may struggle to sweat properly. If you become severely dehydrated, you might actually stop feeling thirsty. Blood pressure can also drop, which may cause dizziness or fainting – especially when standing up.

    Various heart medications can increase risk of dehydration in hot weather.
    pics five/ Shutterstock

    Ramipril and losartan, also used to manage blood pressure, can increase the risk of dehydration as well. These drugs block a system in the body that helps control blood pressure, fluid balance and thirst. This may reduce your natural urge to drink, increasing dehydration risk when it’s hot.

    4. Stimulants

    Stimulants – such as the amphetamines used for ADHD – affect many brain chemicals, including dopamine and noradrenaline. This can increase body temperature, boost metabolism and change how the body sweats – all of which can make it harder to cool down, especially when exercising or in hot weather. This can also potentially lead to dehydration, overheating or even heatstroke. Stimulants may also reduce the feeling of tiredness, which can cause people to overexert themselves without realising the danger.

    However, some recent research shows people with ADHD who take stimulants may actually have a lower chance of heat-related illnesses – but larger trials are needed to investigate further. The researchers hypothesise that this protective effect may be due to factors such as lower body weight and users staying hydrated.

    5. Insulin

    Warm temperatures cause the body’s blood vessels to dilate (widen) in order to help us cool off. But this action means insulin is absorbed into the bloodstream faster as there’s enhanced blood flow to the area where insulin is injected – making blood sugar drop more quickly. This can lead to hypoglycemia (low blood glucose level), which may lead to dizziness, shaking, sweating, irritability and even potentially loss of consciousness or seizures.

    Faster insulin absorption can also make it harder for people with diabetes to notice signs of low blood sugar in the heat, since common symptoms may be mistaken for being hot.

    Heat can also degrade insulin, reducing its effectiveness and making it unsafe. This is why insulin should be stored in the fridge until use – especially in summer. Damaged insulin will change appearance – turning cloudy or changing colour.



    Read more:
    Drugs and the sun – your daily medications could put you at greater risk of sunburn

    Avoiding heatstroke

    Older adults, people with chronic conditions (especially those with heart or lung disease) and those taking multiple prescription drugs are especially vulnerable to heat-related illnesses.

    Fortunately, there are steps you can take to stay safe during summer if you’re taking one of these common prescription drugs.

    First, check labels for storage instructions. Avoid leaving medications in hot places, such as in cars or on windowsills. Insulin isn’t the only drug affected by heat – inhalers and EpiPens can also malfunction or become less effective.

    Second, stay hydrated when it’s hot – unless your doctor has advised otherwise. Dehydration can actually worsen the effects of many medicines. For example, anti-inflammatory painkillers (such as ibuprofen) are more likely to cause kidney problems and bipolar medicines (including lithium) can become toxic if you’re dehydrated.

    Avoid peak heat hours and stay in cool environments when possible. Watch for warning signs of heat-related illness – such as dizziness, confusion, nausea or excessive sweating.

    Last, don’t stop taking your prescriptions medication without medical advice. If it’s affecting your ability to cope with the heat, speak with your doctor or pharmacist.

    Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Five prescription drugs that can make it harder to cope with the heat – https://theconversation.com/five-prescription-drugs-that-can-make-it-harder-to-cope-with-the-heat-259479

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: For Jane Austen and her heroines, walking was more than a pastime – it was a form of resistance

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nada Saadaoui, PhD Candidate in English Literature, University of Cumbria

    In Pride and Prejudice (1813), when heroine Elizabeth Bennet arrives at Netherfield Park with “her petticoat six inches deep in mud”, she walks not only through the fields of Hertfordshire, but into one of literature’s most memorable images of women’s independence.

    Her decision to walk alone, “above her ankles in dirt”, is met with horror. “What could she mean by it?” sneers Miss Bingley. “It seems to me to show an abominable sort of conceited independence.” And yet, in that walk – unaccompanied, unfashionable, unbothered – Elizabeth reveals more about her spirit and autonomy than any parlour conversation could.

    For Austen’s heroines, independence – however “abominable” – often begins on foot. Elizabeth may be the most iconic of Austen’s pedestrians, but she is far from alone. Across Austen’s novels, women are constantly in motion: walking through country lanes, walled gardens, shrubberies, city streets and seaside resorts.

    These are not idle excursions. They are socially legible acts, shaped by class, decorum, and gender – yet often quietly resistant to them.

    This article is part of a series commemorating the 250th anniversary of Jane Austen’s birth. Despite having published only six books, she is one of the best-known authors in history. These articles explore the legacy and life of this incredible writer.

    Fanny Price, the often underestimated heroine of Mansfield Park (1814), is typically seen as timid and passive. Yet beneath her reserved exterior lies a quiet but determined spirit.

    “She takes her own independent walk whenever she can”, remarks Mrs Norris disapprovingly. “She certainly has a little spirit of secrecy, and independence, and nonsense about her.” Austen’s choice of “nonsense” here is revealing: Fanny’s desire for solitude and self-direction is not revolutionary, but it is gently subversive. In a world offering women little room for self-assertion, her steps become acts of resistance.

    When Jane Fairfax, constrained by class and circumstance in Emma (1815), declines a carriage ride, she asserts: “I would rather walk … quick walking will refresh me.” It’s a seemingly modest decision, but one layered with significance. To walk is to control your own movement, to maintain autonomy and resist the genteel suffocation of being constantly observed or helped.

    In Persuasion (1817), Anne Elliot’s story shows walking as a path to renewal. Reserved and long burdened by regret, Anne finds restoration in the coastal air of Lyme Regis. As she walks along the Cobb, Austen notes that “she was looking remarkably well … having the bloom and freshness of youth restored by the fine wind … and by the animation of eye which it had also produced”.

    Her emotional reawakening is framed as a physical one. Walking becomes not only therapeutic but transformative – a way back to herself.

    Not all of Austen’s walks are reflective or restorative. Some are decidedly social. Lydia and Kitty Bennet’s frequent walks to Meryton in Pride and Prejudice, for example, are driven as much by shopping as by the hope of romantic encounters.

    Austen notes the “most convenient distance” of the village, where “their eyes were immediately wandering up in the street in quest of the officers”. These girls were more interested in uniforms than in bonnets.

    Yet even this behaviour hints at something subtler. For young, unmarried women, shopping and social errands were among the few socially sanctioned reasons to move independently through public space. These excursions offered moments of visibility, mobility, and the possibility of courtship – however frivolously pursued.

    Kitty and Lydia walk to Meryton in order to encounter the officers.

    Catherine Morland of Northanger Abbey (1817), a devoted reader of gothic fiction, fuses her walks with imagination. As she strolls along the Avon River with the Tilneys, she muses: “It always puts me in mind of the country that Emily and her father travelled through in The Mysteries of Udolpho.” Walking becomes an act of imaginative projection, where the boundaries between fiction and reality blur in the mind of a heroine learning to navigate both the world and herself.

    Jane Austen the walker

    Austen’s fiction draws much of its vitality from her own experiences. She was, by her own admission, a “desperate walker”, rarely deterred by weather, terrain or propriety.

    A watercolour of Jane Austen by her sister Cassandra, showing her looking out to sea. It was painted while they were on holiday in Lyme Regis in 1804.
    Wiki Commons

    Her letters, written from Bath, Steventon, Chawton and elsewhere, capture the physicality and pleasure of walking in vivid, often playful detail. These glimpses into her daily life reveal not only her attachment to movement but also the quiet autonomy it afforded her.

    In 1805, Austen writes from Bath: “Yesterday was a busy day with me, or at least with my feet & my stockings; I was walking almost all day long.” Several years later, in 1813, she reports with unmistakable relief: “I walked to Alton, & dirt excepted, found it delightful … before I set out we were visited by several callers, all of whom my mother was glad to see, & I very glad to escape.”

    Perhaps most revealing is an earlier letter from December 1798, in which Austen describes a rare solitary excursion: “I enjoyed the hard black frosts of last week very much, & one day while they lasted walked to Deane by myself. I do not know that I ever did such a thing in my life before.” The comment registers the novelty and boldness of a woman walking alone.

    In an age where walking is once again praised for its physical and mental benefits, Austen’s fiction reminds us that these virtues are not new. Her characters have been walking for centuries – through mud, across class boundaries and against expectation.

    They walk in pursuit of clarity, connection, escape and self-hood. Their steps – measured or impulsive, solitary or social – mark turning points in their lives. And in a world designed to keep them stationary, their walking remains a radical act.

    This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from this website, The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

    Nada Saadaoui does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. For Jane Austen and her heroines, walking was more than a pastime – it was a form of resistance – https://theconversation.com/for-jane-austen-and-her-heroines-walking-was-more-than-a-pastime-it-was-a-form-of-resistance-258101

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Believe it or not, there was a time when the US government built beautiful homes for working-class Americans to deal with a housing shortage

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Eran Ben-Joseph, Professor of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

    The U.S. Housing Corporation built nearly 300 homes in Bremerton, Wash., during World War I. National Archives

    In 1918, as World War I intensified overseas, the U.S. government embarked on a radical experiment: It quietly became the nation’s largest housing developer, designing and constructing more than 80 new communities across 26 states in just two years.

    These weren’t hastily erected barracks or rows of identical homes. They were thoughtfully designed neighborhoods, complete with parks, schools, shops and sewer systems.

    In just two years, this federal initiative provided housing for almost 100,000 people.

    Few Americans are aware that such an ambitious and comprehensive public housing effort ever took place. Many of the homes are still standing today.

    But as an urban planning scholar, I believe that this brief historic moment – spearheaded by a shuttered agency called the United States Housing Corporation – offers a revealing lesson on what government-led planning can achieve during a time of national need.

    Government mobilization

    When the U.S. declared war against Germany in April 1917, federal authorities immediately realized that ship, vehicle and arms manufacturing would be at the heart of the war effort. To meet demand, there needed to be sufficient worker housing near shipyards, munitions plants and steel factories.

    So on May 16, 1918, Congress authorized President Woodrow Wilson to provide housing and infrastructure for industrial workers vital to national defense. By July, it had appropriated US$100 million – approximately $2.3 billion today – for the effort, with Secretary of Labor William B. Wilson tasked with overseeing it via the U.S. Housing Corporation.

    Over the course of two years, the agency designed and planned over 80 housing projects. Some developments were small, consisting of a few dozen dwellings. Others approached the size of entire new towns.

    For example, Cradock, near Norfolk, Virginia, was planned on a 310-acre site, with more than 800 detached homes developed on just 100 of those acres. In Dayton, Ohio, the agency created a 107-acre community that included 175 detached homes and a mix of over 600 semidetached homes and row houses, along with schools, shops, a community center and a park.

    Designing ideal communities

    Notably, the Housing Corporation was not simply committed to offering shelter.

    Its architects, planners and engineers aimed to create communities that were not only functional but also livable and beautiful. They drew heavily from Britain’s late-19th century Garden City movement, a planning philosophy that emphasized low-density housing, the integration of open spaces and a balance between built and natural environments.

    Milton Hill, a neighborhood designed and developed by the United States Housing Corporation in Alton, Ill.
    National Archives

    Importantly, instead of simply creating complexes of apartment units, akin to the public housing projects that most Americans associate with government-funded housing, the agency focused on the construction of single-family and small multifamily residential buildings that workers and their families could eventually own.

    This approach reflected a belief by the policymakers that property ownership could strengthen community responsibility and social stability. During the war, the federal government rented these homes to workers at regulated rates designed to be fair, while covering maintenance costs. After the war, the government began selling the homes – often to the tenants living in them – through affordable installment plans that provided a practical path to ownership.

    A single-family home in Davenport, Iowa, built by the U.S. Housing Corporation.
    National Archives

    Though the scope of the Housing Corporation’s work was national, each planned community took into account regional growth and local architectural styles. Engineers often built streets that adapted to the natural landscape. They spaced houses apart to maximize light, air and privacy, with landscaped yards. No resident lived far from greenery.

    In Quincy, Massachusetts, for example, the agency built a 22-acre neighborhood with 236 homes designed mostly in a Colonial Revival style to serve the nearby Fore River Shipyard. The development was laid out to maximize views, green space and access to the waterfront, while maintaining density through compact street and lot design.

    At Mare Island, California, developers located the housing site on a steep hillside near a naval base. Rather than flatten the land, designers worked with the slope, creating winding roads and terraced lots that preserved views and minimized erosion. The result was a 52-acre community with over 200 homes, many of which were designed in the Craftsman style. There was also a school, stores, parks and community centers.

    Infrastructure and innovation

    Alongside housing construction, the Housing Corporation invested in critical infrastructure. Engineers installed over 649,000 feet of modern sewer and water systems, ensuring that these new communities set a high standard for sanitation and public health.

    Attention to detail extended inside the homes. Architects experimented with efficient interior layouts and space-saving furnishings, including foldaway beds and built-in kitchenettes. Some of these innovations came from private companies that saw the program as a platform to demonstrate new housing technologies.

    One company, for example, designed fully furnished studio apartments with furniture that could be rotated or hidden, transforming a space from living room to bedroom to dining room throughout the day.

    To manage the large scale of this effort, the agency developed and published a set of planning and design standards − the first of their kind in the United States. These manuals covered everything from block configurations and road widths to lighting fixtures and tree-planting guidelines.

    A single-family home in Bremerton, Wash., built by the U.S. Housing Corporation.
    National Archives

    The standards emphasized functionality, aesthetics and long-term livability.

    Architects and planners who worked for the Housing Corporation carried these ideas into private practice, academia and housing initiatives. Many of the planning norms still used today, such as street hierarchies, lot setbacks and mixed-use zoning, were first tested in these wartime communities.

    And many of the planners involved in experimental New Deal community projects, such as Greenbelt, Maryland, had worked for or alongside Housing Corporation designers and planners. Their influence is apparent in the layout and design of these communities.

    A brief but lasting legacy

    With the end of World War I, the political support for federal housing initiatives quickly waned. The Housing Corporation was dissolved by Congress, and many planned projects were never completed. Others were incorporated into existing towns and cities.

    Yet, many of the neighborhoods built during this period still exist today, integrated in the fabric of the country’s cities and suburbs. Residents in places such as Aberdeen, Maryland; Bremerton, Washington; Bethlehem, Pennsylvania; Watertown, New York; and New Orleans may not even realize that many of the homes in their communities originated from a bold federal housing experiment.

    Homes on Lawn Avenue in Quincy, Mass., that were built by the U.S. Housing Corporation.
    Google Street View

    The Housing Corporation’s efforts, though brief, showed that large-scale public housing could be thoughtfully designed, community oriented and quickly executed. For a short time, in response to extraordinary circumstances, the U.S. government succeeded in building more than just houses. It constructed entire communities, demonstrating that government has a major role and can lead in finding appropriate, innovative solutions to complex challenges.

    At a moment when the U.S. once again faces a housing crisis, the legacy of the U.S. Housing Corporation serves as a reminder that bold public action can meet urgent needs.

    This article is part of a series centered on envisioning ways to deal with the housing crisis.

    Eran Ben-Joseph does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Believe it or not, there was a time when the US government built beautiful homes for working-class Americans to deal with a housing shortage – https://theconversation.com/believe-it-or-not-there-was-a-time-when-the-us-government-built-beautiful-homes-for-working-class-americans-to-deal-with-a-housing-shortage-253512

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: What if universal rental assistance were implemented to deal with the housing crisis?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alex Schwartz, Professor of Urban Policy, The New School

    Thousands of American families that can’t find affordable apartments are stuck living in extended-stay motels. Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post via Getty Images

    If there’s one thing that U.S. politicians and activists from across the political spectrum can agree on, it’s that rents are far too high.

    Many experts believe that this crisis is fueled by a shortage of housing, caused principally by restrictive regulations.

    Rents and home prices would fall, the argument goes, if rules such as minimum lot- and house-size requirements and prohibitions against apartment complexes were relaxed. This, in turn, would make it easier to build more housing.

    As experts on housing policy, we’re concerned about housing affordability. But our research shows little connection between a shortfall of housing and rental affordability problems. Even a massive infusion of new housing would not shrink housing costs enough to solve the crisis, as rents would likely remain out of reach for many households.

    However, there are already subsidies in place that ensure that some renters in the U.S. pay no more than 30% of their income on housing costs. The most effective solution, in our view, is to make these subsidies much more widely available.

    A financial sinkhole

    Just how expensive are rents in the U.S.?

    According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, a household that spends more than 30% of its income on housing is deemed to be cost-burdened. If it spends more than 50%, it’s considered severely burdened. In 2023, 54% of all renters spent more than 30% of their pretax income on housing. That’s up from 43% of renters in 1999. And 28% of all renters spent more than half their income on housing in 2023.

    Renters with low incomes are especially unlikely to afford their housing: 81% of renters making less than $30,000 spent more than 30% of their income on housing, and 60% spent more than 50%.

    Estimates of the nation’s housing shortage vary widely, reaching up to 20 million units, depending on analytic approach and the time period covered. Yet our research, which compares growth in the housing stock from 2000 to the present, finds no evidence of an overall shortage of housing units. Rather, we see a gap between the number of low-income households and the number of affordable housing units available to them; more affluent renters face no such shortage. This is true in the nation as a whole and in nearly all large and small metropolitan areas.

    Would lower rents help? Certainly. But they wouldn’t fix everything.

    We ran a simulation to test an admittedly unlikely scenario: What if rents dropped 25% across the board? We found it would reduce the number of cost-burdened renters – but not by as much as you might think.

    Even with the reduction, nearly one-third of all renters would still spend more than 30% of their income on housing. Moreover, reducing rents would help affluent renters much more than those with lower incomes – the households that face the most severe affordability challenges.

    The proportion of cost-burdened renters earning more than $75,000 would fall from 16% to 4%, while the share of similarly burdened renters earning less than $15,000 would drop from 89% to just 80%. Even with a rent rollback of 25%, the majority of renters earning less than $30,000 would remain cost-burdened.

    Vouchers offer more breathing room

    Meanwhile, there’s a proven way of making housing more affordable: rental subsidies.

    In 2024, the U.S. provided what are known as “deep” housing subsidies to about 5 million households, meaning that rent payments are capped at 30% of their income.

    These subsidies take three forms: Housing Choice Vouchers that enable people to rent homes in the private market; public housing; and project-based rental assistance, in which the federal government subsidizes the rents for all or some of the units in properties under private and nonprofit ownership.

    The number of households participating in these three programs has increased by less than 2% since 2014, and they constitute only 25% of all eligible households. Households earning less than 50% of their area’s median family income are eligible for rental assistance. But unlike Social Security, Medicare or food stamps, rental assistance is not an entitlement available to all who qualify. The number of recipients is limited by the amount of funding appropriated each year by Congress, and this funding has never been sufficient to meet the need.

    By expanding rental assistance to all eligible low-income households, the government could make huge headway in solving the rental affordability crisis. The most obvious option would be to expand the existing Housing Choice Voucher program, also known as Section 8.

    The program helps pay the rent up to a specified “payment standard” determined by each local public housing authority, which can set this standard at between 80% and 120% of the HUD-designated fair market rent. To be eligible for the program, units must also satisfy HUD’s physical quality standards.

    Unfortunately, about 43% of voucher recipients are unable to use it. They are either unable to find an apartment that rents for less than the payment standard, meets the physical quality standard, or has a landlord willing to accept vouchers.

    Renters are more likely to find housing using vouchers in cities and states where it’s illegal for landlords to discriminate against voucher holders. Programs that provide housing counseling and landlord outreach and support have also improved outcomes for voucher recipients.

    However, it might be more effective to forgo the voucher program altogether and simply give eligible households cash to cover their housing costs. The Philadelphia Housing Authority is currently testing out this approach.

    The idea is that landlords would be less likely to reject applicants receiving government support if the bureaucratic hurdles were eliminated. The downside of this approach is that it would not prevent landlords from renting out deficient units that the voucher program would normally reject.

    Homeowners get subsidies – why not renters?

    Expanding rental assistance to all eligible low-income households would be costly.

    The Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates it would cost about $118 billion a year.

    However, Congress has spent similar sums on housing subsidies before. But they involve tax breaks for homeowners, not low-income renters. Congress forgoes billions of dollars annually in tax revenue it would otherwise collect were it not for tax deductions, credits, exclusions and exemptions. These are known as tax expenditures. A tax not collected is equivalent to a subsidy payment.

    Only about 25% of eligiblge households receive rental assistance from the federal government.
    Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    For example, from 1998 through 2017 – prior to the tax changes enacted by the first Trump administration in 2017 – the federal government annually sacrificed $187 billion on average, after inflation, in revenue due to mortgage interest deductions, deductions for state and local taxes, and for the exemption of proceeds from the sale of one’s home from capital gains taxes. In fiscal year 2025, these tax expenditures totaled $95.4 billion.

    Moreover, tax expenditures on behalf of homeowners flow mostly to higher-income households. In 2024, for example, over 70% of all mortgage-interest tax deductions went to homeowners earning at least $200,000.

    Broadening the availability of rental subsidies would have other benefits. It would save federal, state and local governments billions of dollars in homeless services. Moreover, automatic provision of rental subsidies would reduce the need for additional subsidies to finance new affordable housing. Universal rental assistance, by guaranteeing sufficient rental income, would allow builders to more easily obtain loans to cover development costs.

    Of course, sharply raising federal expenditures for low-income rental assistance flies in the face of the Trump administration’s priorities. Its budget proposal for the next fiscal year calls for a 44% cut of more than $27 billion in rental assistance and public housing.

    On the other hand, if the government supported rental assistance in amounts commensurate with the tax benefits given to homeowners, it would go a long way toward resolving the rental housing affordability crisis.

    This article is part of a series centered on envisioning ways to deal with the housing crisis.

    Alex Schwartz has received funding from the Catherine and John D. MacArthur Foundation. Since 2019 he has served on New York City’s Rent Guidelines Board. He has a relative who works for The Conversation.

    Kirk McClure received funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. What if universal rental assistance were implemented to deal with the housing crisis? – https://theconversation.com/what-if-universal-rental-assistance-were-implemented-to-deal-with-the-housing-crisis-257213

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: What if universal rental assistance were implemented to deal with the housing crisis?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alex Schwartz, Professor of Urban Policy, The New School

    Thousands of American families that can’t find affordable apartments are stuck living in extended-stay motels. Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post via Getty Images

    If there’s one thing that U.S. politicians and activists from across the political spectrum can agree on, it’s that rents are far too high.

    Many experts believe that this crisis is fueled by a shortage of housing, caused principally by restrictive regulations.

    Rents and home prices would fall, the argument goes, if rules such as minimum lot- and house-size requirements and prohibitions against apartment complexes were relaxed. This, in turn, would make it easier to build more housing.

    As experts on housing policy, we’re concerned about housing affordability. But our research shows little connection between a shortfall of housing and rental affordability problems. Even a massive infusion of new housing would not shrink housing costs enough to solve the crisis, as rents would likely remain out of reach for many households.

    However, there are already subsidies in place that ensure that some renters in the U.S. pay no more than 30% of their income on housing costs. The most effective solution, in our view, is to make these subsidies much more widely available.

    A financial sinkhole

    Just how expensive are rents in the U.S.?

    According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, a household that spends more than 30% of its income on housing is deemed to be cost-burdened. If it spends more than 50%, it’s considered severely burdened. In 2023, 54% of all renters spent more than 30% of their pretax income on housing. That’s up from 43% of renters in 1999. And 28% of all renters spent more than half their income on housing in 2023.

    Renters with low incomes are especially unlikely to afford their housing: 81% of renters making less than $30,000 spent more than 30% of their income on housing, and 60% spent more than 50%.

    Estimates of the nation’s housing shortage vary widely, reaching up to 20 million units, depending on analytic approach and the time period covered. Yet our research, which compares growth in the housing stock from 2000 to the present, finds no evidence of an overall shortage of housing units. Rather, we see a gap between the number of low-income households and the number of affordable housing units available to them; more affluent renters face no such shortage. This is true in the nation as a whole and in nearly all large and small metropolitan areas.

    Would lower rents help? Certainly. But they wouldn’t fix everything.

    We ran a simulation to test an admittedly unlikely scenario: What if rents dropped 25% across the board? We found it would reduce the number of cost-burdened renters – but not by as much as you might think.

    Even with the reduction, nearly one-third of all renters would still spend more than 30% of their income on housing. Moreover, reducing rents would help affluent renters much more than those with lower incomes – the households that face the most severe affordability challenges.

    The proportion of cost-burdened renters earning more than $75,000 would fall from 16% to 4%, while the share of similarly burdened renters earning less than $15,000 would drop from 89% to just 80%. Even with a rent rollback of 25%, the majority of renters earning less than $30,000 would remain cost-burdened.

    Vouchers offer more breathing room

    Meanwhile, there’s a proven way of making housing more affordable: rental subsidies.

    In 2024, the U.S. provided what are known as “deep” housing subsidies to about 5 million households, meaning that rent payments are capped at 30% of their income.

    These subsidies take three forms: Housing Choice Vouchers that enable people to rent homes in the private market; public housing; and project-based rental assistance, in which the federal government subsidizes the rents for all or some of the units in properties under private and nonprofit ownership.

    The number of households participating in these three programs has increased by less than 2% since 2014, and they constitute only 25% of all eligible households. Households earning less than 50% of their area’s median family income are eligible for rental assistance. But unlike Social Security, Medicare or food stamps, rental assistance is not an entitlement available to all who qualify. The number of recipients is limited by the amount of funding appropriated each year by Congress, and this funding has never been sufficient to meet the need.

    By expanding rental assistance to all eligible low-income households, the government could make huge headway in solving the rental affordability crisis. The most obvious option would be to expand the existing Housing Choice Voucher program, also known as Section 8.

    The program helps pay the rent up to a specified “payment standard” determined by each local public housing authority, which can set this standard at between 80% and 120% of the HUD-designated fair market rent. To be eligible for the program, units must also satisfy HUD’s physical quality standards.

    Unfortunately, about 43% of voucher recipients are unable to use it. They are either unable to find an apartment that rents for less than the payment standard, meets the physical quality standard, or has a landlord willing to accept vouchers.

    Renters are more likely to find housing using vouchers in cities and states where it’s illegal for landlords to discriminate against voucher holders. Programs that provide housing counseling and landlord outreach and support have also improved outcomes for voucher recipients.

    However, it might be more effective to forgo the voucher program altogether and simply give eligible households cash to cover their housing costs. The Philadelphia Housing Authority is currently testing out this approach.

    The idea is that landlords would be less likely to reject applicants receiving government support if the bureaucratic hurdles were eliminated. The downside of this approach is that it would not prevent landlords from renting out deficient units that the voucher program would normally reject.

    Homeowners get subsidies – why not renters?

    Expanding rental assistance to all eligible low-income households would be costly.

    The Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates it would cost about $118 billion a year.

    However, Congress has spent similar sums on housing subsidies before. But they involve tax breaks for homeowners, not low-income renters. Congress forgoes billions of dollars annually in tax revenue it would otherwise collect were it not for tax deductions, credits, exclusions and exemptions. These are known as tax expenditures. A tax not collected is equivalent to a subsidy payment.

    Only about 25% of eligiblge households receive rental assistance from the federal government.
    Luis Sinco/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    For example, from 1998 through 2017 – prior to the tax changes enacted by the first Trump administration in 2017 – the federal government annually sacrificed $187 billion on average, after inflation, in revenue due to mortgage interest deductions, deductions for state and local taxes, and for the exemption of proceeds from the sale of one’s home from capital gains taxes. In fiscal year 2025, these tax expenditures totaled $95.4 billion.

    Moreover, tax expenditures on behalf of homeowners flow mostly to higher-income households. In 2024, for example, over 70% of all mortgage-interest tax deductions went to homeowners earning at least $200,000.

    Broadening the availability of rental subsidies would have other benefits. It would save federal, state and local governments billions of dollars in homeless services. Moreover, automatic provision of rental subsidies would reduce the need for additional subsidies to finance new affordable housing. Universal rental assistance, by guaranteeing sufficient rental income, would allow builders to more easily obtain loans to cover development costs.

    Of course, sharply raising federal expenditures for low-income rental assistance flies in the face of the Trump administration’s priorities. Its budget proposal for the next fiscal year calls for a 44% cut of more than $27 billion in rental assistance and public housing.

    On the other hand, if the government supported rental assistance in amounts commensurate with the tax benefits given to homeowners, it would go a long way toward resolving the rental housing affordability crisis.

    This article is part of a series centered on envisioning ways to deal with the housing crisis.

    Alex Schwartz has received funding from the Catherine and John D. MacArthur Foundation. Since 2019 he has served on New York City’s Rent Guidelines Board. He has a relative who works for The Conversation.

    Kirk McClure received funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. What if universal rental assistance were implemented to deal with the housing crisis? – https://theconversation.com/what-if-universal-rental-assistance-were-implemented-to-deal-with-the-housing-crisis-257213

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Yelp’s addition of a ‘Black-owned’ tag led to a slight drop in business ratings in Detroit

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Matthew Bui, Assistant Professor of Information and Digital Studies, University of Michigan

    Yelp’s Black-owned tag was designed to help business owners like Don Studvent attract more customers. His restaurant closed in 2018 after nine years in business. AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

    When the online review platform Yelp added a “Black-owned” tag in 2020, it boosted the visibility of Black-owned restaurants in Detroit. It also caused their ratings to drop, according to our recent study.

    Both local and nonlocal reviewers who showed awareness of a restaurant’s Black ownership rated restaurants 3.03 stars on average. Those who did not acknowledge Black ownership gave a rating of 3.78 stars on average. The tag seems to have caused the average rating to drop by attracting more reviewers who were aware of Black ownership.

    Why it matters

    Technology companies often introduce new features and tools to influence user behavior and make their platforms more usable.

    Although Yelp intended to support Black communities with the Black-owned tag, the design intervention was harmful to Black restaurant owners in Detroit because Yelp failed to consider platform and community-based factors that significantly shape user interactions.

    Yelp’s user base is predominantly white, educated and affluent. Making Detroit’s Black-owned restaurants more visible to Yelp users may have amplified cross-cultural interactions and frictions. For example, non-Black users sometimes mentioned “slower” and “rude” service as justifications for lower ratings. Close readings of these reviews hinted at intercultural and communicative clashes.

    And even businesses that don’t select the tag are identified within searches as Black-owned, based on user reviews and relevant links. Yelp doesn’t provide a way for the business to opt out of these search results.

    How we did our work

    To examine the local impacts of Yelp’s Black-owned tag, we collected over 250,000 Yelp reviews of Black- and non-Black-owned restaurants in Detroit and Los Angeles.

    We identified Black-owned restaurants through community-sourced lists for Detroit and Los Angeles and then generated a random sample for the non-Black-owned restaurants.

    We then identified reviews that explicitly noted “Black ownership” for closer analysis.

    Detroit’s Black-owned businesses saw a greater loss in business compared with “ownership-unreported” restaurants during the COVID-19 pandemic. This means they also potentially had more to gain from the new tag.

    We found the awareness of Black ownership on Yelp significantly increased following Yelp’s addition of the Black-owned tag in June 2020. A year after the tag was added, reviews in Detroit mentioned Black ownership 4.3% more often than a year before it was rolled out.

    Detroit Black-owned restaurants also saw a small temporary spike in their number of reviews, largely around the time Yelp added the Black-owned tag. At the same time, the restaurants’ average star ratings dropped from 3.91 to 3.88. In contrast, non-Black-owned restaurants’ ratings stayed relatively steady at 3.90.

    This metric is an aggregate of all Detroit restaurants’ Yelp reviews over their entire existence, so a .03-star rating change is small but significant.

    Even minor changes to star ratings affect the number of diners restaurants attract, their earning potential and the likelihood they will sell out of food.

    Adding obstacles in digital platforms serves to reproduce and amplify inequalities these businesses already face, rather than alleviate them. For example, Black-owned businesses have a harder time getting loans and are relatively underrepresented in Michigan as a whole.

    These findings may seem surprising given that Detroit is a majority Black city. However, Black users on Yelp are a minority. Keeping in mind the skewed user base of Yelp, we hypothesize the lower reviews for businesses featuring a Black-owned tag reflect existing racial and digital divides in the city.

    Generally, our study provides additional evidence that digital interventions are not “one-size-fits-all,” nor is digital visibility inherently positive for all businesses.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    This research was supported by a research grant from the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.

    Matthew Bui does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    Cameron Moy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Yelp’s addition of a ‘Black-owned’ tag led to a slight drop in business ratings in Detroit – https://theconversation.com/yelps-addition-of-a-black-owned-tag-led-to-a-slight-drop-in-business-ratings-in-detroit-256306

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Yelp’s addition of a ‘Black-owned’ tag led to a slight drop in business ratings in Detroit

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Matthew Bui, Assistant Professor of Information and Digital Studies, University of Michigan

    Yelp’s Black-owned tag was designed to help business owners like Don Studvent attract more customers. His restaurant closed in 2018 after nine years in business. AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

    When the online review platform Yelp added a “Black-owned” tag in 2020, it boosted the visibility of Black-owned restaurants in Detroit. It also caused their ratings to drop, according to our recent study.

    Both local and nonlocal reviewers who showed awareness of a restaurant’s Black ownership rated restaurants 3.03 stars on average. Those who did not acknowledge Black ownership gave a rating of 3.78 stars on average. The tag seems to have caused the average rating to drop by attracting more reviewers who were aware of Black ownership.

    Why it matters

    Technology companies often introduce new features and tools to influence user behavior and make their platforms more usable.

    Although Yelp intended to support Black communities with the Black-owned tag, the design intervention was harmful to Black restaurant owners in Detroit because Yelp failed to consider platform and community-based factors that significantly shape user interactions.

    Yelp’s user base is predominantly white, educated and affluent. Making Detroit’s Black-owned restaurants more visible to Yelp users may have amplified cross-cultural interactions and frictions. For example, non-Black users sometimes mentioned “slower” and “rude” service as justifications for lower ratings. Close readings of these reviews hinted at intercultural and communicative clashes.

    And even businesses that don’t select the tag are identified within searches as Black-owned, based on user reviews and relevant links. Yelp doesn’t provide a way for the business to opt out of these search results.

    How we did our work

    To examine the local impacts of Yelp’s Black-owned tag, we collected over 250,000 Yelp reviews of Black- and non-Black-owned restaurants in Detroit and Los Angeles.

    We identified Black-owned restaurants through community-sourced lists for Detroit and Los Angeles and then generated a random sample for the non-Black-owned restaurants.

    We then identified reviews that explicitly noted “Black ownership” for closer analysis.

    Detroit’s Black-owned businesses saw a greater loss in business compared with “ownership-unreported” restaurants during the COVID-19 pandemic. This means they also potentially had more to gain from the new tag.

    We found the awareness of Black ownership on Yelp significantly increased following Yelp’s addition of the Black-owned tag in June 2020. A year after the tag was added, reviews in Detroit mentioned Black ownership 4.3% more often than a year before it was rolled out.

    Detroit Black-owned restaurants also saw a small temporary spike in their number of reviews, largely around the time Yelp added the Black-owned tag. At the same time, the restaurants’ average star ratings dropped from 3.91 to 3.88. In contrast, non-Black-owned restaurants’ ratings stayed relatively steady at 3.90.

    This metric is an aggregate of all Detroit restaurants’ Yelp reviews over their entire existence, so a .03-star rating change is small but significant.

    Even minor changes to star ratings affect the number of diners restaurants attract, their earning potential and the likelihood they will sell out of food.

    Adding obstacles in digital platforms serves to reproduce and amplify inequalities these businesses already face, rather than alleviate them. For example, Black-owned businesses have a harder time getting loans and are relatively underrepresented in Michigan as a whole.

    These findings may seem surprising given that Detroit is a majority Black city. However, Black users on Yelp are a minority. Keeping in mind the skewed user base of Yelp, we hypothesize the lower reviews for businesses featuring a Black-owned tag reflect existing racial and digital divides in the city.

    Generally, our study provides additional evidence that digital interventions are not “one-size-fits-all,” nor is digital visibility inherently positive for all businesses.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    This research was supported by a research grant from the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation.

    Matthew Bui does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    Cameron Moy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Yelp’s addition of a ‘Black-owned’ tag led to a slight drop in business ratings in Detroit – https://theconversation.com/yelps-addition-of-a-black-owned-tag-led-to-a-slight-drop-in-business-ratings-in-detroit-256306

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Self-censorship and the ‘spiral of silence’: Why Americans are less likely to publicly voice their opinions on political issues

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By James L. Gibson, Sidney W. Souers Professor of Government, Washington University in St. Louis

    Polarization has led many people to feel they’re being silenced. AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

    For decades, Americans’ trust in one another has been on the decline, according to the most recent General Social Survey.

    A major factor in that downshift has been the concurrent rise in the polarization between the two major political parties. Supporters of Republicans and Democrats are far more likely than in the past to view the opposite side with distrust.

    That political polarization is so stark that many Americans are now unlikely to have friendly social interactions, live nearby or congregate with people from opposing camps, according to one recent study.

    Social scientists often refer to this sort of animosity as “affective polarization,” meaning that people not only hold conflicting views on many or most political issues but also disdain fellow citizens who hold different opinions. Over the past few decades, such affective polarization in the U.S. has become commonplace.

    Polarization undermines democracy by making the essential processes of democratic deliberation – discussion, negotiation, compromise and bargaining over public policies – difficult, if not impossible. Because polarization extends so broadly and deeply, some people have become unwilling to express their views until they’ve confirmed they’re speaking with someone who’s like-minded.

    I’m a political scientist, and I found that Americans were far less likely to publicly voice their opinions than even during the height of the McCarthy-era Red Scare.

    A supporter of Donald Trump tries to push past demonstrators in Philadelphia on June 30, 2023.
    AP Photo/Nathan Howard

    The muting of the American voice

    According to a 2022 book written by political scientists Taylor Carlson and Jaime E. Settle, fears about speaking out are grounded in concerns about social sanctions for expressing unwelcome views.

    And this withholding of views extends across a broad range of social circumstances. In 2022, for instance, I conducted a survey of a representative sample of about 1,500 residents of the U.S. I found that while 45% of the respondents were worried about expressing their views to members of their immediate family, this percentage ballooned to 62% when it came to speaking out publicly in one’s community. Nearly half of those surveyed said they felt less free to speak their minds than they used to.

    About three to four times more Americans said they did not feel free to express themselves, compared with the number of those who said so during the McCarthy era.

    Censorship in the US and globally

    Since that survey, attacks on free speech have increased markedly, especially under the Trump administration.

    Issues such as the Israeli war in Gaza, activist campaigns against “wokeism,” and the ever-increasing attempts to penalize people for expressing certain ideas have made it more difficult for people to speak out.

    The breadth of self-censorship in the U.S. in recent times is not unprecedented or unique to the U.S. Indeed, research in Germany, Sweden and elsewhere have reported similar increases in self-censorship in the past several years.

    How the ‘spiral of a silence’ explains self-censorship

    In the 1970s, Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, a distinguished German political scientist, coined the term the “spiral of silence” to describe how self-censorship arises and what its consequences can be. Informed by research she conducted on the 1965 West German federal election, Noelle-Neumann observed that an individual’s willingness to publicly give their opinion was tied to their perceptions of public opinion on an issue.

    The so-called spiral happens when someone expresses a view on a controversial issue and then encounters vigorous criticism from an aggressive minority – perhaps even sharp attacks.

    People rally at the University of California, Berkeley, to protest the Trump administration on March 19, 2025.
    AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez

    A listener can impose costs on the speaker for expressing the view in a number of ways, including criticism, direct personal attacks and even attempts to “cancel” the speaker through ending friendships or refusing to attend social events such as Thanksgiving or holiday dinners.

    This kind of sanction isn’t limited to just social interactions but also when someone is threatened by far bigger institutions, from corporations to the government. The speaker learns from this encounter and decides to keep their mouth shut in the future because the costs of expressing the view are simply too high.

    This self-censorship has knock-on effects, as views become less commonly expressed and people are less likely to encounter support from those who hold similar views. People come to believe that they are in the minority, even if they are, in fact, in the majority. This belief then also contributes to the unwillingness to express one’s views.

    The opinions of the aggressive minority then become dominant. True public opinion and expressed public opinion diverge. Most importantly, the free-ranging debate so necessary to democratic politics is stifled.

    Not all issues are like this, of course – only issues for which a committed and determined minority exists that can impose costs on a particular viewpoint are subject to this spiral.

    The consequences for democratic deliberation

    The tendency toward self-censorship means listeners are deprived of hearing the withheld views. The marketplace of ideas becomes skewed; the choices of buyers in that marketplace are circumscribed. The robust debate so necessary to deliberations in a democracy is squelched as the views of a minority come to be seen as the only “acceptable” political views.

    No better example of this can be found than in the absence of debate in the contemporary U.S. about the treatment of the Palestinians by the Israelis, whatever outcome such vigorous discussion might produce. Fearful of consequences, many people are withholding their views on Israel – whether Israel has committed war crimes, for instance, or whether Israeli members of government should be sanctioned – because they fear being branded as antisemitic.

    Many Americans are also biting their tongues when it comes to DEI, affirmative action and even whether political tolerance is essential for democracy.

    But the dominant views are also penalized by this spiral. By not having to face their competitors, they lose the opportunity to check their beliefs and, if confirmed, bolster and strengthen their arguments. Good ideas lose the chance to become better, while bad ideas – such as something as extreme as Holocaust denial – are given space to flourish.

    The spiral of silence therefore becomes inimical to pluralistic debate, discussion and, ultimately, to democracy itself.

    James L. Gibson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Self-censorship and the ‘spiral of silence’: Why Americans are less likely to publicly voice their opinions on political issues – https://theconversation.com/self-censorship-and-the-spiral-of-silence-why-americans-are-less-likely-to-publicly-voice-their-opinions-on-political-issues-251979

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Self-censorship and the ‘spiral of silence’: Why Americans are less likely to publicly voice their opinions on political issues

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By James L. Gibson, Sidney W. Souers Professor of Government, Washington University in St. Louis

    Polarization has led many people to feel they’re being silenced. AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

    For decades, Americans’ trust in one another has been on the decline, according to the most recent General Social Survey.

    A major factor in that downshift has been the concurrent rise in the polarization between the two major political parties. Supporters of Republicans and Democrats are far more likely than in the past to view the opposite side with distrust.

    That political polarization is so stark that many Americans are now unlikely to have friendly social interactions, live nearby or congregate with people from opposing camps, according to one recent study.

    Social scientists often refer to this sort of animosity as “affective polarization,” meaning that people not only hold conflicting views on many or most political issues but also disdain fellow citizens who hold different opinions. Over the past few decades, such affective polarization in the U.S. has become commonplace.

    Polarization undermines democracy by making the essential processes of democratic deliberation – discussion, negotiation, compromise and bargaining over public policies – difficult, if not impossible. Because polarization extends so broadly and deeply, some people have become unwilling to express their views until they’ve confirmed they’re speaking with someone who’s like-minded.

    I’m a political scientist, and I found that Americans were far less likely to publicly voice their opinions than even during the height of the McCarthy-era Red Scare.

    A supporter of Donald Trump tries to push past demonstrators in Philadelphia on June 30, 2023.
    AP Photo/Nathan Howard

    The muting of the American voice

    According to a 2022 book written by political scientists Taylor Carlson and Jaime E. Settle, fears about speaking out are grounded in concerns about social sanctions for expressing unwelcome views.

    And this withholding of views extends across a broad range of social circumstances. In 2022, for instance, I conducted a survey of a representative sample of about 1,500 residents of the U.S. I found that while 45% of the respondents were worried about expressing their views to members of their immediate family, this percentage ballooned to 62% when it came to speaking out publicly in one’s community. Nearly half of those surveyed said they felt less free to speak their minds than they used to.

    About three to four times more Americans said they did not feel free to express themselves, compared with the number of those who said so during the McCarthy era.

    Censorship in the US and globally

    Since that survey, attacks on free speech have increased markedly, especially under the Trump administration.

    Issues such as the Israeli war in Gaza, activist campaigns against “wokeism,” and the ever-increasing attempts to penalize people for expressing certain ideas have made it more difficult for people to speak out.

    The breadth of self-censorship in the U.S. in recent times is not unprecedented or unique to the U.S. Indeed, research in Germany, Sweden and elsewhere have reported similar increases in self-censorship in the past several years.

    How the ‘spiral of a silence’ explains self-censorship

    In the 1970s, Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, a distinguished German political scientist, coined the term the “spiral of silence” to describe how self-censorship arises and what its consequences can be. Informed by research she conducted on the 1965 West German federal election, Noelle-Neumann observed that an individual’s willingness to publicly give their opinion was tied to their perceptions of public opinion on an issue.

    The so-called spiral happens when someone expresses a view on a controversial issue and then encounters vigorous criticism from an aggressive minority – perhaps even sharp attacks.

    People rally at the University of California, Berkeley, to protest the Trump administration on March 19, 2025.
    AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez

    A listener can impose costs on the speaker for expressing the view in a number of ways, including criticism, direct personal attacks and even attempts to “cancel” the speaker through ending friendships or refusing to attend social events such as Thanksgiving or holiday dinners.

    This kind of sanction isn’t limited to just social interactions but also when someone is threatened by far bigger institutions, from corporations to the government. The speaker learns from this encounter and decides to keep their mouth shut in the future because the costs of expressing the view are simply too high.

    This self-censorship has knock-on effects, as views become less commonly expressed and people are less likely to encounter support from those who hold similar views. People come to believe that they are in the minority, even if they are, in fact, in the majority. This belief then also contributes to the unwillingness to express one’s views.

    The opinions of the aggressive minority then become dominant. True public opinion and expressed public opinion diverge. Most importantly, the free-ranging debate so necessary to democratic politics is stifled.

    Not all issues are like this, of course – only issues for which a committed and determined minority exists that can impose costs on a particular viewpoint are subject to this spiral.

    The consequences for democratic deliberation

    The tendency toward self-censorship means listeners are deprived of hearing the withheld views. The marketplace of ideas becomes skewed; the choices of buyers in that marketplace are circumscribed. The robust debate so necessary to deliberations in a democracy is squelched as the views of a minority come to be seen as the only “acceptable” political views.

    No better example of this can be found than in the absence of debate in the contemporary U.S. about the treatment of the Palestinians by the Israelis, whatever outcome such vigorous discussion might produce. Fearful of consequences, many people are withholding their views on Israel – whether Israel has committed war crimes, for instance, or whether Israeli members of government should be sanctioned – because they fear being branded as antisemitic.

    Many Americans are also biting their tongues when it comes to DEI, affirmative action and even whether political tolerance is essential for democracy.

    But the dominant views are also penalized by this spiral. By not having to face their competitors, they lose the opportunity to check their beliefs and, if confirmed, bolster and strengthen their arguments. Good ideas lose the chance to become better, while bad ideas – such as something as extreme as Holocaust denial – are given space to flourish.

    The spiral of silence therefore becomes inimical to pluralistic debate, discussion and, ultimately, to democracy itself.

    James L. Gibson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Self-censorship and the ‘spiral of silence’: Why Americans are less likely to publicly voice their opinions on political issues – https://theconversation.com/self-censorship-and-the-spiral-of-silence-why-americans-are-less-likely-to-publicly-voice-their-opinions-on-political-issues-251979

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: I’m a physician who has looked at hundreds of studies of vaccine safety, and here’s some of what RFK Jr. gets wrong

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jake Scott, Clinical Associate Professor of Infectious Diseases, Stanford University

    Public health experts worry that factually inaccurate statements by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. threaten the public’s confidence in vaccines. Andrew HarnikGetty Images

    In the four months since he began serving as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made many public statements about vaccines that have cast doubt on their safety and on the objectivity of long-standing processes established to evaluate them.

    Many of these statements are factually incorrect. For example, in a newscast aired on June 12, 2025, Kennedy told Fox News viewers that 97% of federal vaccine advisers are on the take. In the same interview, he also claimed that children receive 92 mandatory shots. He has also widely claimed that only COVID-19 vaccines, not other vaccines in use by both children and adults, were ever tested against placebos and that “nobody has any idea” how safe routine immunizations are.

    As an infectious disease physician who curates an open database of hundreds of controlled vaccine trials involving over 6 million participants, I am intimately familiar with the decades of research on vaccine safety. I believe it is important to correct the record – especially because these statements come from the official who now oversees the agencies charged with protecting Americans’ health.

    Do children really receive 92 mandatory shots?

    In 1986, the childhood vaccine schedule contained about 11 doses protecting against seven diseases. Today, it includes roughly 50 injections covering 16 diseases. State school entry laws typically require 30 to 32 shots across 10 to 12 diseases. No state mandates COVID-19 vaccination. Where Kennedy’s “92 mandatory shots” figure comes from is unclear, but the actual number is significantly lower.

    From a safety standpoint, the more important question is whether today’s schedule with additional vaccines might be too taxing for children’s immune systems. It isn’t, because as vaccine technology improved over the past several decades, the number of antigens in each vaccine dose is much lower than before.

    Antigens are the molecules in vaccines that trigger a response from the immune system, training it to identify the specific pathogen. Some vaccines contain a minute amount of aluminum salt that serves as an adjuvant – a helper ingredient that improves the quality and staying power of the immune response, so each dose can protect with less antigen.

    Those 11 doses in 1986 delivered more than 3,000 antigens and 1.5 milligrams of aluminum over 18 years. Today’s complete schedule delivers roughly 165 antigens – which is a 95% reduction – and 5-6 milligrams of aluminum in the same time frame. A single smallpox inoculation in 1900 exposed a child to more antigens than today’s complete series.

    Jonas Salk, the inventor of the polio vaccine, administers a dose to a boy in 1954.
    Underwood Archives via Getty Images

    Since 1986, the United States has introduced vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis A and B, chickenpox, pneumococcal disease, rotavirus and human papillomavirus. Each addition represents a life-saving advance.

    The incidence of Haemophilus influenzae type b, a bacterial infection that can cause pneumonia, meningitis and other severe diseases, has dropped by 99% in infants. Pediatric hepatitis infections are down more than 90%, and chickenpox hospitalizations are down about 90%. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that vaccinating children born from 1994 to 2023 will avert 508 million illnesses and 1,129,000 premature deaths.

    Placebo testing for vaccines

    Kennedy has asserted that only COVID-19 vaccines have undergone rigorous safety trials in which they were tested against placebos. This is categorically wrong.

    Of the 378 controlled trials in our database, 195 compared volunteers’ response to a vaccine with their response to a placebo. Of those, 159 gave volunteers only a salt water solution or another inert substance. Another 36 gave them just the adjuvant without any viral or bacterial material, as a way to see whether there were side effects from the antigen itself or the injection. Every routine childhood vaccine antigen appears in at least one such study.

    The 1954 Salk polio trial, one of the largest clinical trials in medical history, enrolled more than 600,000 children and tested the vaccine by comparing it with a salt water control. Similar trials, which used a substance that has no biological effect as a control, were used to test Haemophilus influenzae type b, pneumococcal, rotavirus, influenza and HPV vaccines.

    Once an effective vaccine exists, ethics boards require new versions be compared against that licensed standard because withholding proven protection from children would be unethical.

    How unknown is the safety of widely used vaccines?

    Kennedy has insisted on multiple occasions that “nobody has any idea” about vaccine safety profiles. Of the 378 trials in our database, the vast majority published detailed safety outcomes.

    Beyond trials, the U.S. operates the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, the Vaccine Safety Datalink and the PRISM network to monitor hundreds of millions of doses for rare problems. The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System works like an open mailbox where anyone – patients, parents, clinicians – can report a post-shot problem; the Vaccine Safety Datalink analyzes anonymized electronic health records from large health care systems to spot patterns; and PRISM scans billions of insurance claims in near-real time to confirm or rule out rare safety signals.

    These systems led health officials to pull the first rotavirus vaccine in 1999 after it was linked to bowel obstruction, and to restrict the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 after rare clotting events. Few drug classes undergo such continuous surveillance and are subject to such swift corrective action when genuine risks emerge.

    The conflicts of interest claim

    On June 9, Kennedy took the unprecedented step of dissolving vetted members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, the expert body that advises the CDC on national vaccine policy. He has claimed repeatedly that the vast majority of serving members of the committee – 97% – had extensive conflicts of interest because of their entanglements with the pharmaceutical industry. Kennedy bases that number on a 2009 federal audit of conflict-of-interest paperwork, but that report looked at 17 CDC advisory committees, not specifically this vaccine committee. And it found no pervasive wrongdoing – 97% of disclosure forms only contained routine paperwork mistakes, such as information in the wrong box or a missing initial, and not hidden financial ties.

    Reuters examined data from Open Payments, a government website that discloses health care providers’ relationships with industry, for all 17 voting members of the committee who were dismissed. Six received no more than US$80 from drugmakers over seven years, and four had no payments at all.

    The remaining seven members accepted between $4,000 and $55,000 over seven years, mostly for modest consulting or travel. In other words, just 41% of the committee received anything more than pocket change from drugmakers. Committee members must divest vaccine company stock and recuse themselves from votes involving conflicts.

    A term without a meaning

    Kennedy has warned that vaccines cause “immune deregulation,” a term that has no basis in immunology. Vaccines train the immune system, and the diseases they prevent are the real threats to immune function.

    Measles can wipe immune memory, leaving children vulnerable to other infections for years. COVID-19 can trigger multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. Chronic hepatitis B can cause immune-mediated organ damage. Preventing these conditions protects people from immune system damage.

    Today’s vaccine panel doesn’t just prevent infections; it deters doctor visits and thereby reduces unnecessary prescriptions for “just-in-case” antibiotics. It’s one of the rare places in medicine where physicians like me now do more good with less biological burden than we did 40 years ago.

    The evidence is clear and publicly available: Vaccines have dramatically reduced childhood illness, disability and death on a historic scale.

    Jake Scott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. I’m a physician who has looked at hundreds of studies of vaccine safety, and here’s some of what RFK Jr. gets wrong – https://theconversation.com/im-a-physician-who-has-looked-at-hundreds-of-studies-of-vaccine-safety-and-heres-some-of-what-rfk-jr-gets-wrong-259659

    MIL OSI Analysis –