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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Neuropathic pain has no immediate cause – research on a brain receptor may help stop this hard-to-treat condition

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Pooja Shree Chettiar, Ph.D. Candidate in Medical Sciences, Texas A&M University

    Neuropathic pain is experienced both physically and emotionally. Salim Hanzaz/iStock via Getty Images

    Pain is easy to understand until it isn’t. A stubbed toe or sprained ankle hurts, but it makes sense because the cause is clear and the pain fades as you heal.

    But what if the pain didn’t go away? What if even a breeze felt like fire, or your leg burned for no reason at all? When pain lingers without a clear cause, that’s neuropathic pain.

    We are neuroscientists who study how pain circuits in the brain and spinal cord change over time. Our work focuses on the molecules that quietly reshape how pain is felt and remembered.

    We didn’t fully grasp how different neuropathic pain was from injury-related pain until we began working in a lab studying it. Patients spoke of a phantom pain that haunted them daily – unseen, unexplained and life-altering.

    These conversations shifted our focus from symptoms to mechanisms. What causes this ghost pain to persist, and how can we intervene at the molecular level to change it?

    More than just physical pain

    Neuropathic pain stems from damage to or dysfunction in the nervous system itself. The system that was meant to detect pain becomes the source of it, like a fire alarm going off without a fire. Even a soft touch or breeze can feel unbearable.

    Neuropathic pain doesn’t just affect the body – it also alters the brain. Chronic pain of this nature often leads to depression, anxiety, social isolation and a deep sense of helplessness. It can make even the most routine tasks feel unbearable.

    About 10% of the U.S. population – tens of millions of people – experience neuropathic pain, and cases are rising as the population ages. Complications from diabetes, cancer treatments or spinal cord injuries can lead to this condition. Despite its prevalence, doctors often overlook neuropathic pain because its underlying biology is poorly understood.

    Neuropathic pain can be debilitating.
    Kate Wieser/Moment via Getty Images

    There’s also an economic cost to neuropathic pain. This condition contributes to billions of dollars in health care spending, missed workdays and lost productivity. In the search for relief, many turn to opioids, a path that, as seen from the opioid epidemic, can carry its own devastating consequences through addiction.

    GluD1: A quiet but crucial player

    Finding treatments for neuropathic pain requires answering several questions. Why does the nervous system misfire in this way? What exactly causes it to rewire in ways that increase pain sensitivity or create phantom sensations? And most urgently: Is there a way to reset the system?

    This is where our lab’s work and the story of a receptor called GluD1 comes in. Short for glutamate delta-1 receptor, this protein doesn’t usually make headlines. Scientists have long considered GluD1 a biochemical curiosity, part of the glutamate receptor family, but not known to function like its relatives that typically transmit electrical signals in the brain.

    Instead, GluD1 plays a different role. It helps organize synapses, the junctions where neurons connect. Think of it as a construction foreman: It doesn’t send messages itself, but directs where connections form and how strong they become.

    This organizing role is critical in shaping the way neural circuits develop and adapt, especially in regions involved in pain and emotion. Our lab’s research suggests that GluD1 acts as a molecular architect of pain circuits, particularly in conditions like neuropathic pain where those circuits misfire or rewire abnormally. In parts of the nervous system crucial for pain processing like the spinal cord and amygdala, GluD1 may shape how people experience pain physically and emotionally.

    Fixing the misfire

    Across our work, we found that disruptions to GluD1 activity is linked to persistent pain. Restoring GluD1 activity can reduce pain. The question is, how exactly does GluD1 reshape the pain experience?

    In our first study, we discovered that GluD1 doesn’t operate solo. It teams up with a protein called cerebellin-1 to form a structure that maintains constant communication between brain cells. This structure, called a trans-synaptic bridge, can be compared to a strong handshake between two neurons. It makes sure that pain signals are appropriately processed and filtered.

    But in chronic pain, the bridge between these proteins becomes unstable and starts to fall apart. The result is chaotic. Like a group chat where everyone is talking at once and nobody can be heard clearly, neurons start to misfire and overreact. This synaptic noise turns up the brain’s pain sensitivity, both physically and emotionally. It suggests that GluD1 isn’t just managing pain signals, but also may be shaping how those signals feel.

    What if we could restore that broken connection?

    This image highlights the presence of GluD1, in green and yellow, in a neuron of the central amygdala, in red.
    Pooja Shree Chettiar and Siddhesh Sabnis/Dravid Lab at Texas A&M University, CC BY-SA

    In our second study, we injected mice with cerebellin-1 and saw that it reactivated GluD1 activity, easing their chronic pain without producing any side effects. It helped the pain processing system work again without the sedative effects or disruptions to other nerve signals that are common with opioids. Rather than just numbing the body, reactivating GluD1 activity recalibrated how the brain processes pain.

    Of course, this research is still in the early stages, far from clinical trials. But the implications are exciting: GluD1 may offer a way to repair the pain processing network itself, with fewer side effects and less risk of addiction than current treatments.

    For millions living with chronic pain, this small, peculiar receptor may open the door to a new kind of relief: one that heals the system, not just masks its symptoms.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Neuropathic pain has no immediate cause – research on a brain receptor may help stop this hard-to-treat condition – https://theconversation.com/neuropathic-pain-has-no-immediate-cause-research-on-a-brain-receptor-may-help-stop-this-hard-to-treat-condition-256982

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How emotions rule every stage of the entrepreneurial process

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Florencio Portocarrero, Assistant Professor of Management, Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science

    tsyhun/Shutterstock

    Governments often see entrepreneurs as the engines of innovation, job creation and economic growth. In the UK alone, small and medium enterprises account for 99.8% of the business population and employ more than 16 million people.

    However, entrepreneurship is not just a strategic or financial undertaking. It’s primarily an emotional journey. From the spark of an idea to the triumphs and failures of running a business, emotions constantly shape how entrepreneurs think, decide, act and relate to others.

    Recent research I led draws on 276 studies to show that emotions don’t just accompany entrepreneurship – they drive it. Far from being distractions, emotions – like passion, fear, anxiety and compassion – and emotional intelligence can make or break a venture. Here are four ways they shape the entrepreneurial journey.

    1. The double edge of passion

    Ask any entrepreneur what keeps them going through long hours, tight budgets and personal sacrifice, and you’ll probably hear the word “passion”. Passion is one of the most studied emotions in entrepreneurship – for good reason. It fuels creativity, motivates persistence and can inspire others.

    Investors are more likely to back passionate founders and employees feel more engaged when their leaders show authentic enthusiasm. Passionate storytelling resonates with customers.

    Most of the benefits linked to passion emerge when entrepreneurs choose to pursue ventures that align with their identity and values. This aspect of the emotion is called “harmonious passion”, and it leads to greater wellbeing, better work-life balance and sustained motivation.

    But passion also has a darker side, called obsessive passion. This is a type of emotional experience driven by internal pressures (self-worth, for example) or external expectations (status or validation). Entrepreneurs with high levels of obsessive passion often become workaholics, suffer burnout and cannot walk away from their enterprises. This is even the case when their ventures are experiencing sustained failures.

    Passion can be a superpower. But like any power, it needs to be wielded with care.

    2. Fear and anxiety: not always the enemy

    Starting a business is inherently risky. Founders often deal with uncertain markets, fluctuating cash flow and high personal stakes. Unsurprisingly, fear and anxiety are common companions in this journey.

    These emotions are often framed negatively, but our research shows that they serve vital functions. Fear can make entrepreneurs more vigilant and help them anticipate challenges. Anxiety can enhance performance under pressure, such as during investor pitches or public launches. These can act like emotional smoke alarms, warning entrepreneurs about potential problems before they spiral.

    However, problems arise when these emotions become overwhelming. Chronic fear of failure can prevent entrepreneurs from taking calculated risks. It can lead to perfectionism, decision paralysis or the premature abandonment of promising ideas.

    The key is not to suppress fear or anxiety but to manage these emotions. Practices like journaling, peer mentorship and mindfulness training are valuable tools. They can help entrepreneurs reflect and use fear and anxiety constructively rather than letting it control them.

    Journaling can be an effective way for entrepreneurs to manage fear – and channel it positively.
    Daniel Hoz/Shutterstock

    3. Compassion as fuel for social enterprise

    Entrepreneurship isn’t always about chasing profits. Many founders launch ventures to address urgent social issues, from poverty and inequality to environmental degradation. These social entrepreneurs are often driven not just by vision but also by compassion.

    Our review found that compassion is a defining emotional characteristic of social entrepreneurs. It motivates them to act when others turn away. It helps them connect with communities, earn trust and stay resilient in the face of adversity. Their emotional connection to a mission creates a deep sense of purpose that can carry them through setbacks that might paralyse other entrepreneurs.

    This emotional resilience is often overlooked in traditional entrepreneurship education, which tends to emphasise strategy and metrics. But for many mission-driven founders, compassion is the emotional backbone of the business.

    4. Emotional intelligence as a business strategy

    Emotions don’t just shape how entrepreneurs feel, they affect how others respond to them. Our research points to emotional intelligence, the ability to recognise, understand and regulate emotions, as a critical skill for entrepreneurs.

    Founders who demonstrate high emotional intelligence motivate teams better, manage conflict and build trust with stakeholders. They’re more likely to retain talent, adapt under pressure and sustain long-term ventures. Investors, too, respond to emotional cues. A confident and passionate pitch can be more persuasive than a technically perfect but emotionally flat one.

    However, there’s a fine line. Too much emotional expression can backfire. Investors may question the founder’s judgement, and teams may interpret it as instability.

    The most effective entrepreneurs aren’t the ones who suppress their emotions but those who deploy them strategically. In a world where startups rise and fall on relationships, emotional intelligence is not a soft skill. It’s a core business strategy.

    Entrepreneurship is an emotional endeavour. The highs are exhilarating, but the lows can be crushing. While grit and skill matter, our review shows that founders’ emotional agility often determines whether they thrive or burn out.

    Innovation should be celebrated and it’s vital to recognise and support entrepreneurs’ emotional experiences. That means building programmes that teach emotional management, creating networks that offer psychological safety and reframing failure not as weakness but as part of the emotional terrain of entrepreneurship.

    This article was co-published with LSE Blogs at the London School of Economics.

    Florencio Portocarrero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How emotions rule every stage of the entrepreneurial process – https://theconversation.com/how-emotions-rule-every-stage-of-the-entrepreneurial-process-258439

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: African finance ministers shouldn’t be making bond deals: how to hand over the job to experts

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Misheck Mutize, Post Doctoral Researcher, Graduate School of Business (GSB), University of Cape Town

    Eurobonds, debts owed in a foreign currency, have become a quick and attractive way for African countries to borrow money. They are behind a sharp rise in commercial borrowing as a percentage of total external debt: it has nearly doubled from 27% in 2011 to 52% in 2020. This has increased the debt vulnerability of most African countries.

    Recent developments, however, show that most of the bonds have not been structured properly. As a result, African countries are paying way over the odds relative to their sovereign risks.

    Based on my bond price modelling expertise, it is my view that there are two major drivers of the mispricing of African government bonds. They are interlinked.

    Firstly, a lack of expertise in debt management offices, whose job it is to negotiate the terms of any debt deals and to oversee their execution. This is a topic I explored in a recent article.



    Read more:
    African countries are bad at issuing bonds, so debt costs more than it should: what needs to change

    The second factor, which I address here, is that in many African countries, finance ministers have assumed primary responsibility for Eurobond issuance. They engage directly with investment bankers, legal advisors and credit rating agencies.

    In my view they shouldn’t.

    Finance ministers should stay away from debt negotiations because they are political appointees. They operate under incentives tied to electoral cycles, not fiscal sustainability. Their short tenures and desire to fund visible projects often conflict with the long-term nature of sovereign debt obligations.

    They don’t have the necessary expertise to handle the technical complexity required to get the best possible deal, either.

    Simply calling for ministers to step aside would ignore the institutional realities in most African countries. In particular, debt management offices have severe capacity constraints.

    Nevertheless, as global financial conditions tighten and African countries seek to refinance maturing Eurobonds or issue new instruments, the risks of politicised borrowing must be minimised. Ministers should spend their energies on ensuring their debt management offices are well staffed with top quality teams. They should then leave it up to these technical staff to prepare and arrange the financing.

    This would leave room for ministers to manage any disagreements between technical staff and the banks when necessary. And to close the final deal.

    Ministers versus the experts

    Eurobond issuance involves advanced financial engineering – pricing models, investor engagement, covenant structuring and legal compliance across jurisdictions. It takes a deep understanding of capital markets.

    When debt management offices are operating at their best, they are filled with people who have this knowledge. They have a combination of financial market and public policy skills, including debt portfolio management, risk analysis and debt transaction processing.

    In discussions with debt managers at the African Sovereign Debt Conference it’s become clear to me that debt managers are sidelined in the international bond issuance negotiations. They are also sidelined in the execution process, except for administrative support.

    What happens instead is that finance ministers are usually key contacts of the investment bankers. By approaching a minister directly, investment bankers get to close their mandates faster.

    But this minimises due diligence and bypasses internal safeguards. Ministers may not pay attention to complex legal clauses under foreign jurisdictions, details of investor negotiations and fee structures. They may accept unfavourable terms, ignore sustainability assessments and obscure fiscal vulnerabilities in pursuit of political wins and quick disbursements.

    For example, in 2018, Ghana’s then finance minister was internationally lauded for financial stewardship. Ghana was the first African issuer of a longest tenure and a zero-coupon bond. A year later, the country defaulted, suggesting the bond terms weren’t great for the country. The minister nevertheless received several awards as the best and most prudent in Africa.

    There is also the issue of conflicts of interest. When the same actor – in this case the finance minister – proposes, negotiates and approves a debt instrument, the system lacks accountability.

    In many African countries, parliaments, audit institutions and civil society have limited understanding about the technical details of bond agreements. Ministers can easily sideline procurement rules and transparency mechanisms, resulting in non-competitive contracts and opaque fees paid to underwriters and advisors.

    Investment bankers prefer this arrangement as it works in their favour.

    Reforms that are needed

    Before finance ministers can hand over control, debt management offices must be equipped. This requires targeted reforms, including:

    • Capacity building through strategic partnerships: African debt management offices should work with international issuing syndicates and development partners to gain first-hand exposure to structuring, pricing and marketing global bonds.

    • Human capital reforms: Governments must attract and retain highly skilled debt managers by offering competitive pay, professional development opportunities and protection from political interference.

    • Debt management offices must be staffed by dedicated quantitative analysts. They must also be equipped to use real-time market intelligence systems and formal investor relations programmes.

    • Gradual delegation: Authority can be shifted, starting with less complex debt instruments.

    The role of the finance minister must evolve. Ministers should provide strategic leadership: approving borrowing strategies, ensuring alignment with macroeconomic goals, and engaging parliament and the public.

    Their function should shift from operational to institutional oversight and accountability.

    Structural reforms must embed the capacity, autonomy and transparency required for debt management offices to lead effectively.

    In South Africa, for example, the assets and liabilities management division of the National Treasury department manages government’s annual funding programme.

    Professionalising the debt issuance process is not just about avoiding technical mistakes. It’s also about creating resilient institutions that can withstand political turnover. That fosters credibility and long-term access to capital.

    Ministers should remain accountable to the public, and debt management offices must do their work based on technical merit.

    Misheck Mutize is affiliated with the African Union – African Peer Review Mechanism as a Lead Expert on credit ratings

    – ref. African finance ministers shouldn’t be making bond deals: how to hand over the job to experts – https://theconversation.com/african-finance-ministers-shouldnt-be-making-bond-deals-how-to-hand-over-the-job-to-experts-259017

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: African finance ministers shouldn’t be making bond deals: how to hand over the job to experts

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Misheck Mutize, Post Doctoral Researcher, Graduate School of Business (GSB), University of Cape Town

    Eurobonds, debts owed in a foreign currency, have become a quick and attractive way for African countries to borrow money. They are behind a sharp rise in commercial borrowing as a percentage of total external debt: it has nearly doubled from 27% in 2011 to 52% in 2020. This has increased the debt vulnerability of most African countries.

    Recent developments, however, show that most of the bonds have not been structured properly. As a result, African countries are paying way over the odds relative to their sovereign risks.

    Based on my bond price modelling expertise, it is my view that there are two major drivers of the mispricing of African government bonds. They are interlinked.

    Firstly, a lack of expertise in debt management offices, whose job it is to negotiate the terms of any debt deals and to oversee their execution. This is a topic I explored in a recent article.



    Read more:
    African countries are bad at issuing bonds, so debt costs more than it should: what needs to change

    The second factor, which I address here, is that in many African countries, finance ministers have assumed primary responsibility for Eurobond issuance. They engage directly with investment bankers, legal advisors and credit rating agencies.

    In my view they shouldn’t.

    Finance ministers should stay away from debt negotiations because they are political appointees. They operate under incentives tied to electoral cycles, not fiscal sustainability. Their short tenures and desire to fund visible projects often conflict with the long-term nature of sovereign debt obligations.

    They don’t have the necessary expertise to handle the technical complexity required to get the best possible deal, either.

    Simply calling for ministers to step aside would ignore the institutional realities in most African countries. In particular, debt management offices have severe capacity constraints.

    Nevertheless, as global financial conditions tighten and African countries seek to refinance maturing Eurobonds or issue new instruments, the risks of politicised borrowing must be minimised. Ministers should spend their energies on ensuring their debt management offices are well staffed with top quality teams. They should then leave it up to these technical staff to prepare and arrange the financing.

    This would leave room for ministers to manage any disagreements between technical staff and the banks when necessary. And to close the final deal.

    Ministers versus the experts

    Eurobond issuance involves advanced financial engineering – pricing models, investor engagement, covenant structuring and legal compliance across jurisdictions. It takes a deep understanding of capital markets.

    When debt management offices are operating at their best, they are filled with people who have this knowledge. They have a combination of financial market and public policy skills, including debt portfolio management, risk analysis and debt transaction processing.

    In discussions with debt managers at the African Sovereign Debt Conference it’s become clear to me that debt managers are sidelined in the international bond issuance negotiations. They are also sidelined in the execution process, except for administrative support.

    What happens instead is that finance ministers are usually key contacts of the investment bankers. By approaching a minister directly, investment bankers get to close their mandates faster.

    But this minimises due diligence and bypasses internal safeguards. Ministers may not pay attention to complex legal clauses under foreign jurisdictions, details of investor negotiations and fee structures. They may accept unfavourable terms, ignore sustainability assessments and obscure fiscal vulnerabilities in pursuit of political wins and quick disbursements.

    For example, in 2018, Ghana’s then finance minister was internationally lauded for financial stewardship. Ghana was the first African issuer of a longest tenure and a zero-coupon bond. A year later, the country defaulted, suggesting the bond terms weren’t great for the country. The minister nevertheless received several awards as the best and most prudent in Africa.

    There is also the issue of conflicts of interest. When the same actor – in this case the finance minister – proposes, negotiates and approves a debt instrument, the system lacks accountability.

    In many African countries, parliaments, audit institutions and civil society have limited understanding about the technical details of bond agreements. Ministers can easily sideline procurement rules and transparency mechanisms, resulting in non-competitive contracts and opaque fees paid to underwriters and advisors.

    Investment bankers prefer this arrangement as it works in their favour.

    Reforms that are needed

    Before finance ministers can hand over control, debt management offices must be equipped. This requires targeted reforms, including:

    • Capacity building through strategic partnerships: African debt management offices should work with international issuing syndicates and development partners to gain first-hand exposure to structuring, pricing and marketing global bonds.

    • Human capital reforms: Governments must attract and retain highly skilled debt managers by offering competitive pay, professional development opportunities and protection from political interference.

    • Debt management offices must be staffed by dedicated quantitative analysts. They must also be equipped to use real-time market intelligence systems and formal investor relations programmes.

    • Gradual delegation: Authority can be shifted, starting with less complex debt instruments.

    The role of the finance minister must evolve. Ministers should provide strategic leadership: approving borrowing strategies, ensuring alignment with macroeconomic goals, and engaging parliament and the public.

    Their function should shift from operational to institutional oversight and accountability.

    Structural reforms must embed the capacity, autonomy and transparency required for debt management offices to lead effectively.

    In South Africa, for example, the assets and liabilities management division of the National Treasury department manages government’s annual funding programme.

    Professionalising the debt issuance process is not just about avoiding technical mistakes. It’s also about creating resilient institutions that can withstand political turnover. That fosters credibility and long-term access to capital.

    Ministers should remain accountable to the public, and debt management offices must do their work based on technical merit.

    Misheck Mutize is affiliated with the African Union – African Peer Review Mechanism as a Lead Expert on credit ratings

    – ref. African finance ministers shouldn’t be making bond deals: how to hand over the job to experts – https://theconversation.com/african-finance-ministers-shouldnt-be-making-bond-deals-how-to-hand-over-the-job-to-experts-259017

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: After the smoke clears, a wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ben Livneh, Associate Professor of Hydrology, University of Colorado Boulder

    Burned ground can become hydrophobic and almost waxlike, allowing rainfall to quickly wash contaminants downslope. Ben Livneh/University of Colorado

    Picture a wildfire raging across a forested mountainside. The smoke billows and the flames rise. An aircraft drops vibrant red flame retardant. It’s a dramatic, often dangerous scene. But the threat to water supplies is only just beginning.

    After the smoke clears, the soil, which was once nestled beneath a canopy of trees and a spongy layer of leaves, is now exposed. Often, that soil is charred and sterile, with the heat making the ground almost water-repellent, like a freshly waxed car.

    When the first rain arrives, the water rushes downhill. It carries with it a slurry of ash, soil and contaminants from the burned landscape. This torrent flows directly into streams and then rivers that provide drinking water for communities downstream.

    As a new research paper my colleagues and I just published shows, this isn’t a short-term problem. The ghost of the fire can haunt these waterways for years.

    Scientists explain how wildfires can contaminate water supplies and the ways they measure the effects, summarized in their 2024 publication. University of Colorado-Boulder.

    This matters because forested watersheds are the primary water source for nearly two-thirds of municipalities in the United States. As wildfires in the western U.S. become larger and more frequent, the long-term security and safety of water supplies for downstream communities is increasingly at risk.

    Charting the long tail of wildfire pollution

    Scientists have long known that wildfires can affect water quality, but two key questions remained: Exactly how bad is the impact? And how long does it last?

    To find out, my colleagues and I led a study, coordinated by engineer Carli Brucker. We undertook one of the most extensive analyses of post-wildfire water quality to date. The results were published June 23, 2025, in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

    We gathered decades of water quality data from 245 burned watersheds across the western U.S. and compared them to nearly 300 similar, unburned watersheds.

    A map of the basins studied shows the outlines of fires in red and burned basins in black. The blue basins did not burn and were used for comparisons.
    Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

    By creating a computer model for each basin that accounted for its normal water quality variability, based on factors such as rainfall and temperature, we were able to isolate the impact of the wildfire. This allowed us to see how much the water quality deviated after the fire, year after year.

    The results were stark. In the first year after a fire, the concentrations of some contaminants skyrocketed. We found that levels of sediment and turbidity – the cloudiness of the water – were 19 to 286 times higher than prefire levels. That much sediment can clog filters at water treatment plants and require expensive treatment and maintenance. Think of trying to use a coffee filter with muddy water – the water just won’t flow through.

    Concentrations of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were three to 103 times greater in the burned basins. These dissolved remnants of burned plants and soil are particularly problematic. When they mix with the chlorine used to disinfect drinking water, they can form harmful chemicals called disinfection byproducts, some of which are linked to cancer.

    More surprisingly, we found the impacts to be really persistent. While the most dramatic spikes in phosphorous, nitrate, organic carbon and sediment generally occurred in the first one to three years, some contaminants lingered for much longer.

    Contaminants including phosphorus, organic carbon and nitrates lingered in water supplies for years after wildfires. The charts show the average among all burned basins eight years before fires (light blue) and all burned basins after fires (orange). The gray bars show levels in the year immediately after the fire. The horizontal purple line shows levels that would be expected without a fire, based on the prefire years.
    Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

    We saw significantly elevated levels of nitrogen and sediment for up to eight years following a fire. Nitrogen and phosphorus act like fertilizer for algae. A surge of these nutrients can trigger algal blooms in reservoirs, which can produce toxins and create foul odors.

    This extended timeline suggests that wildfires are fundamentally altering the landscape in ways that take a long time to heal. In our previous laboratory-based research, including a 2024 study, we simulated this process by burning soil and vegetation and then running water over them.

    After mountain slopes burn, the rain that falls on them washes ash, charred soil and debris downstream.
    Ben Livneh/University of Colorado

    The stuff that leaches out is a cocktail of carbon, nutrients and other compounds that can exacerbate flood risks and degrade water quality in ways that require more expensive treatment at water treatment facilities. In extreme cases, the water quality may be so poor that communities can’t withdraw river water at all, and that can create water shortages.

    After the Buffalo Creek Fire in 1996 and then the Hayman Fire in 2002, Denver’s water utility spent more than US$27 million over several years to treat the water, remove more than 1 million cubic yards of sediment and debris from a reservoir, and fix infrastructure. State Forest Service crews planted thousands of trees to help restore the surrounding forest’s water filtering capabilities.

    A growing challenge for water treatment

    This long-lasting impact poses a major challenge for water treatment plants that make river water safe to drink. Our study highlights that utilities can’t just plan for a few bad months after a fire. They need to be prepared for potentially eight or more years of degraded water quality.

    We also found that where a fire burns matters. Watersheds with thicker forests or more urban areas that burned tended to have even worse water quality after a fire.

    Since many municipalities draw water from more than one source, understanding which watersheds are likely to have the largest water quality problems after fires can help communities locate the most vulnerable parts of their water supply systems.

    As temperatures rise and more people move into wildland areas in the American West, the risk of wildfires increases, and it is becoming clear that preparing for longer-term consequences is crucial. The health of forests and our communities’ drinking water are inseparably linked, with wildfires casting a shadow that lasts long after the smoke clears.

    Ben Livneh receives funding from the Western Water Assessment NOAA grant #NA21OAR4310309, ‘Western Water Assessment: Building Resilience to Compound Hazards in the Inter-Mountain West’.

    – ref. After the smoke clears, a wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk – https://theconversation.com/after-the-smoke-clears-a-wildfires-legacy-can-haunt-rivers-for-years-putting-drinking-water-at-risk-259118

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from the Hill: Albanese supports US bombing, reluctantly

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    When Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong went out on Monday to back the United States attack on Iran, it was obvious their support was through gritted teeth.

    Albanese told their joint news conference: “The world has long agreed that Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuclear weapon. And we support action to prevent that. That is what this is.

    “The US action was directed at specific sites central to Iran’s nuclear program. We don’t want escalation and a full-scale war. We continue to call for dialogue and for diplomacy. As I’ve said for many days now, we are deeply concerned about any escalation in the region and we want to see diplomacy, dialogue and de-escalation.”

    At the news conference and in Wong’s media round beforehand, one big question was, why did they take so long to appear?

    The attack is a seismic event in the Middle East conflict. Yet on Sunday the government only put out a tepid statement attributed to a “spokesperson”, which did not endorse the American action.

    This suggests the prime minister and foreign minister are, at the very least, uncomfortable with the action.

    It is further evidence of the current distance between the Australian government and the Trump administration. Whether it affects Albanese’s attempt to get the now much-sought after bilateral remains to be seen.

    At every stage of the Middle East conflict, as the situation has progressively escalated, the Australian government has been urging restraint and/ or de-escalation.

    Albanese is caught between not wanting to repudiate the Americans, the conflicting pressures of domestic lobbies, and his Labor constituency.

    Over the years, Albanese has moved to the political centre. But he hasn’t taken down from his website a strong speech he made in 2003 opposing the Iraq war.

    “In the short term, the conflict that is now clearly about to start can only make things worse, perhaps much worse,” Albanese told parliament then. “Iraq does not represent a threat to Australia. We are, with this [Howard government] decision, supporting a pre-emptive strike, which changes forever the way that international politics works.”

    In that war and this war, some of the same issues are at play. Iraq was thought to have weapons of mass destruction – later it was found it did not. Iran has long been on the path to developing nuclear weapons, but there are varying intelligence assessments of how much progress it has made.

    One can’t help thinking Albanese probably has the same sort of reservations about the Iran strike that he did about the Iraq war.

    For Australia’s there is one big difference: there is no thought of involving Australian defence forces, as happened in Iraq.

    Former Labor senator Doug Cameron, in parliament from 2008 to 2019 and a firebrand of the left, on Monday recalled how then opposition leader Simon Crean opposed Australia’s support for and participation in the Iraq war. (Crean said, “Never allow our foreign policy to be determined by another nation. Never commit to unnecessary war when peace is possible.”)

    Cameron, now a national patron of Labor Against War, issued several tweets condemning the government’s stand, and saying “time for Labor backbenchers to speak up”.

    But the Labor backbench is far from what it once was. Hardly anyone speaks up to challenge anything. As for the left, it is a shadow of its old feisty self.

    “What has happened to the left?” Cameron asks. “To be honest I don’t understand it,” he admits to The Conversation.

    Cameron recalls how the left – and indeed the wider caucus – was up in arms when Bob Hawke in the mid-1980s wanted Australia to facilitate the Americans’ testing of MX missiles that would splash down in the Tasman Sea. Hawke had to back down.

    He wonders if it’s a matter of not wanting to contradict a “left prime minister, and a left foreign minister”. “Personal support and party solidarity have come before common sense.”

    There are many causes of the demise of the ALP left, as Cameron knew it. They include the loss of what power Labor’s rank-and-file once had, the splintering of the left more broadly to minor parties notably the Greens, and the decline of ideology within Labor (and generally). There is no current “Doug Cameron”-equivalent in the caucus. The factions no longer fight over ideas – they preside over spoils.

    Those who contest the thesis of the decline of the left argue the contemporary Labor left has been shaping the Albanese government’s agenda on key issues from within, for example on industrial relations, industry policy, climate policy, and gender issues.

    If the Albanese of 2003 could have foreseen what the caucus left of 2025 would be like, he’d have been surprised, and possibly shocked. As it is, he’s pretty pleased the left is so quietly behaved.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from the Hill: Albanese supports US bombing, reluctantly – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-supports-us-bombing-reluctantly-258967

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Strait of Hormuz: closing vital oil and gas route would disrupt global supplies. How will Australia be affected?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sanjoy Paul, Associate Professor in Operations and Supply Chain Management, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney

    Below the Sky/Shutterstock

    The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of key shipping route the Strait of Hormuz, in a move that could further escalate the Israel/Iran war.

    The strait lies between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbours and is used to transport about 20 million barrels per day of oil – the equivalent of 20% of global daily oil consumption.

    Since 2020, this critical route has been used to transport an average of 14.8 million barrels a day of crude oil and natural gas liquids, 5.5 million barrels a day of petroleum products and 10.8 billion cubic feet per day of LNG.

    The closure of the strait, which will not take effect until endorsed by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, will significantly impact global oil and gas supplies and could potentially create energy crises.

    An important route for Asia

    In 2024, 84% of the crude oil and natural gas liquids, and 83% of the LNG passed through this channel were destined for Asian countries including China, India, Japan and South Korea.

    In the first quarter of 2025, China alone imported about 38% of crude oil shipped through the strait.

    It is likely these countries will be directly impacted by a closure.

    What it means for Australia

    Only about 15% of Australia’s crude oil and 5% of petroleum products are imported from Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

    However, 30% of Australia’s refined oil effectively transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This is because Australia sources refined oil from the Republic of Korea and Singapore that is refined from crude oil from the Middle East.

    If Australia’s key suppliers are affected by the closure, there could be devastating flow-on effects for the country’s oil supply.

    Since the conflict between Iran and Israel started, the oil price has increased by 10%. The closure of the strait could further inflate the oil price globally

    Though Australia does not rely directly on crude oil from the Middle East, its reliance on South Korea and Singapore for refined oil is significant. The increased oil price and its impact on the cost of goods and services could also hurt Australia’s fight to control inflation.

    Past tensions in the strait

    The Strait of Hormuz has never been fully closed. However, it has been disrupted a few times leading to reduced capacity.

    Notable disruptions include attacks on commercial ships including oil tankers during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and the tension in the strait between Iranian and US navies in 2007.

    None of these disruptions led to the closure of the channel so the impact of these disruptions on global oil supply was minimal.

    Bypassing the strait

    Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have established oil pipelines that could bypass the Strait of Hormuz if it is closed or compromised.

    Saudi Arabia’s pipeline can carry five million barrels per day and the emirates’ capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day. This is compared to their production capacities of nine and 3.3 million barrels per day respectively.

    This could significantly slow down the transportation of crude oil from both countries.

    Qatar relies on the Strait of Hormuz to transport nearly all of its LNG shipments. Last week Qatar instructed all LNG carriers to hold off transiting through the strait until the day before loading and to remain east of Hormuz. This has kept their carriers outside the impacted regions.

    The limited alternative options and reduced capacities of pipelines could potentially disrupt the global oil and LNG supply.

    Potential strategies

    If the strait is fully closed, the impacts could be severe, especially for Asian countries which rely on energy from the Middle East.

    Many countries, such as China, have oil reserves that can sustain their current oil consumption for about five years. However, many developing countries don’t keep supply inventories.

    In the short term, countries should seek to diversify their sources of oil and gas supply. In the long term, they should create a strategic reserve for it.

    Supply countries should focus on expanding alternative routes such as pipelines connected to alternative ports.

    Most importantly, countries should focus on creating renewable energy sources and speed up their adoption to meet energy needs. In future, renewable energies will be the most viable alternatives to crude oil and LNG amid geopolitical tensions.

    Sanjoy Paul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Strait of Hormuz: closing vital oil and gas route would disrupt global supplies. How will Australia be affected? – https://theconversation.com/strait-of-hormuz-closing-vital-oil-and-gas-route-would-disrupt-global-supplies-how-will-australia-be-affected-259535

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian CEOs are still getting their bonuses. Performance doesn’t seem to matter so much

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Denniss, Adjunct Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    RomanR/Shutterstock

    Almost all of Australia’s top chief executives are, according to their boards at least, knocking it out of the park in terms of performance.

    That is despite sluggish productivity, persistently high carbon emissions, rising inequality and Australia’s public spending on research and development being among the lowest in the OECD.

    According to new data from the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors, 91% of Australia’s top chief executive officers (CEOs) received some form of performance bonus last year. That elevated their pay well above their base salaries (which were already over A$1 million). Only five CEOs out of 142 eligible for a bonus received zero.

    The fact nearly all of Australia’s top CEOs are receiving these performance bonuses shows performance pay is more about rewarding conformity and discipline than risk-taking and entrepreneurship.

    Do we really believe 91% of our CEOs made big bets that paid off last year? A more plausible explanation is that we simply reward executives for not stuffing up. Their customer base is growing in line with population growth and their prices are rising faster than their cost of production, which means profits rise without too much effort.

    Not keeping up with change

    Take the electricity industry for example. It’s hard to imagine an industry in which change is more inevitable than the industry responsible for transitioning away from gas and coal-fired power stations to renewable energy.

    But according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the electricity, gas and water industry spends a mere 0.24% of sales on research and development each year. That is half the economy-wide average.

    Unfortunately, innovation does not appear to be a prerequisite for CEOs being rewarded with large bonuses. According to Energy Australia, its CEO Mark Collette (base salary over $1 million) recently challenged a room full of other well-paid leaders at Australian Energy Week to continuously ask themselves: “Will this make energy cheaper?”

    However instead of focusing on keeping costs down for consumers, companies have sometimes resorted to misleading statements. Energy Australia recently admitted to misleading customers by claiming the coal and gas-fired electricity it was selling was “carbon neutral”.

    Companies purchase carbon credits to offset emissions elsewhere in their businesses.
    tech_BG/Shutterstock

    Energy Australia was buying widely used carbon offsets to make the claim the fossil-fuel fired electricity it was selling was carbon neutral. In its apology Energy Australia conceded “offsets do not prevent or undo the harms caused by burning fossil fuels for a customer’s energy use”.

    While it is clear Energy Australia’s spending on carbon credits did nothing to make the company’s energy cheaper, it is not yet clear if the board will award a “performance bonus”.

    Leading the world – in pay packets

    Another example of the lack of relationship between CEO pay and organisational performance is Australia’s university sector. The vice chancellors of Australian universities are among the best paid in the world, with over a dozen Australian earning more than the head of Cambridge University.

    But there is no correlation between student satisfaction and vice chancellor pay.

    And while Australian vice chancellor pay has been soaring, Australian universities have been slipping steadily down international rankings for university quality.

    Inequality is rising

    While performance-based bonuses and incentives are common among CEOs and vice chancellors, the same is not true for lower-paid staff.

    Instead, these staff are often asked to “do more, with less” even as their real wages have declined. Universities have seen a notable decline in academic staff per student while the gap between the pay of lecturers and vice chancellors has skyrocketed.

    Extremely high salaries for CEOs and vice chancellors have done nothing to boost Australian productivity growth, or our performance in global rankings for our universities, research and development or innovation. Paying out large bonuses for average performance has done little to help either.

    Inequality in Australia is rising. As long as CEO pay is rising faster than the minimum wages, that gap will continue to widen. The latest data showed CEO salaries are 55 times that of the average worker.

    Just doing their job

    While it is true it is hard to measure the performance of a CEO, it’s also hard to measure the care and attention provided by a childcare worker, the compassion of an aged care nurse, the helpfulness of a call centre operator or the enthusiasm of a lecturer.

    Few CEOs think we need bonuses to motivate the vast majority of Australian workers. But it is heresy to suggest those at the top of a big organisation could simply work diligently without a giant bonus.

    So, it’s not just income that is unequal in Australia. We expect a lot more self-motivation from those at the bottom of the income distribution than those at the very top.

    Richard Denniss does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australian CEOs are still getting their bonuses. Performance doesn’t seem to matter so much – https://theconversation.com/australian-ceos-are-still-getting-their-bonuses-performance-doesnt-seem-to-matter-so-much-259382

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Woodside’s North West Shelf gas extension is being challenged in the courts. Could it be stopped?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin University

    The controversial extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project off Western Australia faces two legal challenges. Both raise significant concerns about the validity of government approvals. One could even seek an injunction, preventing federal environment minister Murray Watt from making a final decision.

    The first battle is being fought along climate lines. Enormous amounts of greenhouse gases will be released when gas from the project is exported and burned overseas. The Friends of Australian Rock Art group now argues the then WA environment minister Reece Whitby should have taken this pollution into account when approving the extension in December.

    The second concerns ancient Aboriginal rock art in the Murujuga National Park on the Burrup Peninsula. There’s evidence greenhouse gas emissions released during extraction of fossil fuels is damaging the artwork, and Traditional Owners are seeking a protection order.

    The decision to grant the extension appears at odds with national heritage and state environment laws. Both cases will be a closely watched test of these legal protections.

    What’s the North West Shelf approval about?

    Approval for the North West Shelf gas processing plant in Karratha, WA, was to expire in 2030. Woodside Energy sought to extend the project to 2070.

    The state government gave approval to the extension in December, and the federal government gave conditional approval last month.

    Watt gave Woodside ten business days to respond to “strict conditions particularly relating to the impact of air emissions” on nearby rock art, but that deadline was not met. Woodside has been given more time to review the conditions.

    Meanwhile, two legal challenges have been mounted.

    The Friends of Rock Art case

    Earlier this month, the group Friends of Australian Rock Art requested judicial review of the approval by Whitby.

    Judicial review is where courts review government decisions to ensure they are lawful and fair. The case is yet to be heard in the WA Supreme Court.

    The group argues the state failed to give proper regard to the climate impact of the proposal, as required under the WA Environment Protection Act.

    Specifically, the group argues the approval did not fully examine the climate impacts of so-called “scope three” emissions. These occur when the exported gas is burned overseas.

    Under WA state law, the minister must consider whether a proposal will have a significant effect on the environment. This is a broad requirement and the climate effects of a decision are relevant.

    The WA Office of Environmental Protection makes this clear in a statement of objectives, which include minimising “the risk of environmental harm associated with climate change by reducing greenhouse gases as far as practicable”.

    Guidelines published in November to help implement this objective set out that where scope three emissions are likely to exceed 100,000 tonnes a year, extra information must be provided to government. This includes “a summary of where the scope three emissions will be emitted (domestic or international), and whether they are or are reasonably likely to be subject to emission reduction requirements as scope 1 or 2 emissions”.

    The guidelines further state that the EPA’s usual minimum expectation for proposals is for “deep, substantial and sustained emission reductions” this decade – with net zero no later than 2050, and reductions occurring along a linear trajectory (at minimum) from 2030.

    Woodside has indicated the project extension would emit about 80 million tonnes of scope three emissions annually – about equal to the emissions from a small to medium-sized country.

    Co-convener of the Friends group, Judith Hugo, said the minister did not give adequate regard to the guidelines and failed to consider the project’s full impact on the climate, as well as the nearby rock art.

    While litigation on scope three emissions is relatively new, it is gaining traction globally. It has become an increasingly significant factor underlying corporate climate action and policy development.

    Announcing the legal challenge on June 17, 2025 (Friends of Australian Rock Art)

    2. The Traditional Owner case

    Raelene Cooper is a Mardathoonera woman and founder of the group Save our Songlines. She filed legal action in the Federal Court in 2022, seeking temporary protection from industrial emissions for the art.

    Murujuga has some of the planet’s oldest known rock art, dating back 40,000 years. Research has shown rocks closer to the industrial operations have been degraded by past emissions.

    On May 23 this year, Cooper called for an “urgent assessment of the ongoing impacts of all industry on the Burrup” before the federal government decided on Woodside’s proposed extension.

    She had filed a motion in the Federal Court seeking to compel Watt to make a determination of her Murujuga Section 10 cultural heritage assessment. But Watt announced conditional approval for the Woodside extension on May 28.

    Watt reportedly promised to give Cooper three days’ notice of the approval. That would have given Cooper an opportunity to file an injunction preventing the minister from making a final decision to approve the North West Shelf prior to resolving her section 10 protection order.

    Resolution of the protection order is particularly important given the art has been nominated for UNESCO World Heritage listing. The World Heritage Committee referred the nomination back to the federal government so as to “prevent any further industrial development adjacent to, and within, the Murujuga Cultural Landscape”.

    This referral occurred before the project extension was approved. If the approval is finalised, the nomination may fail, because the government cannot ensure the area will be protected.

    Cooper’s case is set to be heard in July.

    Saving Murujuga Rock Art (The Australia Institute)

    High stakes and delicate decision-making

    These legal actions reflect deep public concern over the North West Shelf gas project extension.

    In the context of a worsening climate emergency and damage to ancient rock art, properly adhering to the legal requirements for the assessment of such projects couldn’t be more crucial.

    Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Woodside’s North West Shelf gas extension is being challenged in the courts. Could it be stopped? – https://theconversation.com/woodsides-north-west-shelf-gas-extension-is-being-challenged-in-the-courts-could-it-be-stopped-259130

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How do I get started in the gym lifting weights?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mandy Hagstrom, Senior Lecturer, Exercise Physiology. School of Health Sciences, UNSW Sydney

    Thomas Barwick/Getty

    So you’ve never been to a gym and are keen to start, but something’s holding you back. Perhaps you don’t know what to actually do in there or feel like you’ll just look stupid in front of everyone. Maybe you’re worried about injuring yourself.

    It’s OK. Everyone starts somewhere. I did, too.

    Resistance exercise (such as weight lifting) is really good for your health. Benefits include a reduced risk of osteoporosis-related fractures, reduced risk factors for chronic diseases such as diabetes, better sleep, improved mental health and, of course, stronger and bigger muscles.

    So, how do people get started in the gym? Here’s what you need to know, and what the research says.

    Worried about injury?

    Don’t be. It’s probably less risky than lots of other forms of exercise you might already do or did in the past.

    Team sports such as rugby and soccer, and strength-based sports such as powerlifting, weightlifting, and cross fit all have similar injury rates. They’re all in the vicinity of three to four injuries per 1,000 hours of participation.

    Going to the gym has almost half this rate of injuries, at about 1.8 per 1,000 hours.

    Let’s put that into context.

    If you go to the gym three times per week for a one-hour session – and you do that every week of the year – you achieve approximately 156 hours of resistance training exercise a year.

    So if the injury rate is about 1.8 injuries per 1,000 hours, that means that you could exercise for years in the gym without even a little niggle!

    Some groups, such as young men under 40, may be at a greater risk of injury in the gym. So if that’s you, you may want to be a little more conscious about how fast you progress, and the types of exercises you do in the gym.

    Compare these injury risk stats to the known risks of sedentary lifestyles, and the worry should go out the door.

    In short, it’s a lot more dangerous to be sedentary than it is to go to the gym.

    OK, how do I get started?

    It’s fine to begin with what you feel most comfortable with. You don’t have to go straight to a ridiculously complex or challenging program.

    However, that doesn’t mean you don’t need to put in the effort!

    Most gyms can start you off by designing a workout program for you (you might have to pay for a personal training session). If you have a medical condition, find an accredited exercise physiologist. They’re trained to help you exercise safely.

    It’s OK to start with gym machines, which are designed to make it easier to keep your movements consistent.

    But keep your mind open about trying the free weights section (where the dumbbells, barbells and mirrors are). Benefits from this type of training may vary from what you get via machines.

    That’s because a lot of the moves you do with free weights are what’s called compound exercises, meaning they work a lot of muscles and joints together at the same time. They’re really good for you. Examples of compound exercises include:

    • squats
    • lunges
    • deadlifts
    • bench presses
    • hip thrusts
    • kettle bell swings.
    Most gyms can connect you with a trainer to show you what to do.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    How much should I do in the gym?

    Standard government physical activity recommendations state you should do muscle strengthening twice per week.

    If you are new to the gym, you can make progress with a minimalist approach. For example, you may choose to only lift once or twice per week, compared with many seasoned gym-goers who might lift four or five times per week.

    Recent research shows even those people already consistently lifting in a gym can maintain or slowly improve by doing just two sessions per week, in which each exercise is only performed for one set and the whole session lasts just 30 minutes or so.

    So if you can stick to one hour per week (made up of two challenging half-hour sessions) then you will still be making progress.

    How do I make my habit stick?

    Sticking to the habit after the novelty has worn off is where many come unstuck.

    Some research suggests it takes six weeks to form a gym habit, and that the more frequent the attendance in those first six weeks, the more likely the habit will stick.

    At the one-year mark, the biggest predictor of regular attendance (defined as twice per week) was enjoyment. This was followed closely by the concept of self-efficacy (believing in yourself and your ability to stick to it), and social support.

    This is really important.

    Find what you like about the gym. Train the way that you enjoy. Find a friend to join the gym with. That will help you create the habit.

    From there, you can progress the types and intensity of gym exercises you do.

    It’s OK if it’s hard at first.
    I love photo/Shutterstock

    I feel like a duck out of water

    Every gym-goer felt this at first. I did too.

    The confusion about which bit of the machine to sit on, pull, or push, is a tad overwhelming.

    The sense of security in sticking to the familiar, shying away from the free weight area.

    Remember: everyone is there to improve themselves and is on their own journey.

    Most people won’t even notice that you are there, and most experienced gym-goers will be delighted to help if you’re unsure.

    If that’s not your experience at your local gym, perhaps look for a new and more welcoming environment. Not all gyms and gym cultures are created equal.

    Mandy Hagstrom is affiliated with Sports Oracle, a company that delivers the International Olympic Committee diploma in Strength and Conditioning.

    – ref. How do I get started in the gym lifting weights? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-i-get-started-in-the-gym-lifting-weights-258291

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why the US strikes on Iran are illegal and can set a troubling precedent

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University

    After the United States bombed Iran’s three nuclear facilities on Sunday, US President Donald Trump said its objective was a “stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror”.

    US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this justification, saying:

    The president authorised a precision operation to neutralise the threats to our national interest posed by the Iranian nuclear program and the collective self-defence of our troops and our ally Israel.

    Is this a legitimate justification for a state to launch an attack on another?

    I believe, looking at the evidence, it is not.

    Was it self defence?

    Under the UN Charter, there are two ways in which a state can lawfully use force against another state:

    • the UN Security Council authorises force in exceptional circumstances to restore or maintain international peace and security under Chapter 7

    • the right of self defence when a state is attacked by another, as outlined in Article 51.

    On the first point, there was no UN Security Council authorisation for either Israel or the US to launch an attack on Iran to maintain international peace and security. The security council has long been concerned about Iran’s nuclear program and adopted a series of resolutions related to it. However, none of those resolutions authorised the use of military force.

    With regard to self defence, this right is activated if there is an armed attack against a nation. And there’s no evidence of any recent Iranian attacks on the US.

    There have been incidents involving attacks on US assets by Iranian-backed proxy groups in the region, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah. In his address to the nation on Saturday night, Trump made reference to historical incidents the US believes the Iranians were responsible for over the years.

    However, none of these actions is directly related to the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    What about a preemptive strike?

    Another possible ground the US can use to mount a case for its bombardments is anticipatory or preemptive self defence.

    Both of these aspects of self defence are controversial. They have never been clearly endorsed by the UN Security Council or the International Court of Justice.

    The US has sought to assert a fairly wide-ranging, robust interpretation of the right of self defence over many years, including both anticipatory self defence and preemptive self defence (which is particularly relevant in the Iran strikes).

    The major point of distinction between the two is whether a potential attack is imminent. Anticipatory self defence is in response to an attack on the brink of happening, such as when armed forces are massing on a border. Preemptive self defence is a step further removed, before a genuine threat materialises.

    Famously, in 2002, the administration of President George W. Bush adopted what is known as the “Bush doctrine” following the September 11 terrorist attacks.

    This doctrine was framed around the notion of preemptive self defence justifying a strike on another nation. This was one of the grounds the US used to justify its military intervention of Iraq in 2003 – that Iraq’s alleged program of weapons of mass destruction posed an imminent threat to the US.

    However, this justification was widely discredited when no evidence of these weapons was found.

    Did Iran pose an imminent threat?

    With regard to Iran’s nuclear program, an imminent threat would require two things: Iran having nuclear weapons capability, and an intent to use them.

    On capability, there have been debates about Iran’s transparency with respect to its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

    But, importantly, the IAEA is the body that has the authorisation and capability to make judgements about a nation’s nuclear program. And it said, at this point in time, Iran did not yet have nuclear weapons capability.

    As Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA told the BBC:

    […]whereas until the early 2000s there used to be […] a structured and systematic effort in the direction of a nuclear device, that is not the case now.

    Trump’s statement in which he referred to the US military operation against Iran’s “nuclear enrichment facilities” was particularly striking. There was no reference to weapons. So, even the language coming out of the White House does not make reference to Iran possessing weapons at this point in time.

    Trump’s address to the nation after the Iran strikes.

    Further, many states have nuclear weapons capability, but they’re not necessarily showing intent to use them.

    Iran has a long track record of aggressive rhetoric against Israel and the US. But the critical question here is whether this equates to an intent to strike.

    What about collective defence?

    Israel began its military campaign against Iran on June 13, also arguing for the need for anticipatory or preemptive self defence to counter the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program.

    If Israel is exercising its right to self defence consistently with the UN Charter, as it claims, it can legitimately call on the assistance of its allies to mount what is known as “collective self defence” against an attack.

    On all the available evidence, there’s no doubt the Israelis and Americans coordinated with respect to the US strikes on June 22. At face value, this is a case of collective self defence.

    But, importantly, this right is only valid under international law if the original Israeli right to self defence is legitimate.

    And here, we encounter the same legal difficulties as we do with the US claim of self defence. Israel’s claim of an imminent attack from Iran is very dubious and contentious on the facts.



    Read more:
    Are Israel’s actions in Iran illegal? Could it be called self-defence? An international law expert explains

    A concerning precedent

    The overarching concern is these strikes can set a precedent. Other states can use this interpretation of the right of self defence to launch anticipatory or preemptive strikes against other nations any time they want.

    If this practice is allowed to go unchecked and is not subject to widespread condemnation, it can seen by the international community as an endorsement – that this type of conduct is legitimate.

    There are many states acquiring conventional weapons that could be seen to pose a potential threat to their neighbours or other states. And there are several states considering the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

    One example is Japan, where there has been some debate about nuclear weapons as a deterrence to future possible threats from China.

    So, how might Japan’s actions be seen by its neighbours – namely China and North Korea? And how might these countries respond in light of the precedent that’s been set by the US and Israel?

    Should Australia condemn the US strikes?

    Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong has come out in support for the US action, saying “we cannot allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon”. She hasn’t, however, addressed the legality of the US strikes.

    The Albanese government should be discussing this. There’s an expectation, in particular, on the part of Labor governments, given former leader Doc Evatt’s role in the creation of the UN Charter, that they show strong support for the rules-based international order.

    Labor governments were very critical of the way in which the Howard government engaged in the US-led invasion of Iraq, asserting there was no basis for it under international law.

    Accordingly, there’s an expectation that Labor governments should be holding all states accountable for egregious breaches of international law. And, when viewed through the lens of international law, there’s no other way you can characterise the US strikes on Iran.

    Donald Rothwell receives funding from Australian Research Council

    – ref. Why the US strikes on Iran are illegal and can set a troubling precedent – https://theconversation.com/why-the-us-strikes-on-iran-are-illegal-and-can-set-a-troubling-precedent-259542

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: MIT researchers say using ChatGPT can rot your brain. The truth is a little more complicated

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vitomir Kovanovic, Associate Professor and Associate Director of the Centre for Change and Complexity in Learning (C3L), Education Futures, University of South Australia

    Rroselavy / Shutterstock

    Since ChatGPT appeared almost three years ago, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on learning has been widely debated. Are they handy tools for personalised education, or gateways to academic dishonesty?

    Most importantly, there has been concern that using AI will lead to a widespread “dumbing down”, or decline in the ability to think critically. If students use AI tools too early, the argument goes, they may not develop basic skills for critical thinking and problem-solving.

    Is that really the case? According to a recent study by scientists from MIT, it appears so. Using ChatGPT to help write essays, the researchers say, can lead to “cognitive debt” and a “likely decrease in learning skills”.

    So what did the study find?

    The difference between using AI and the brain alone

    Over the course of four months, the MIT team asked 54 adults to write a series of three essays using either AI (ChatGPT), a search engine, or their own brains (“brain-only” group). The team measured cognitive engagement by examining electrical activity in the brain and through linguistic analysis of the essays.

    The cognitive engagement of those who used AI was significantly lower than the other two groups. This group also had a harder time recalling quotes from their essays and felt a lower sense of ownership over them.

    Interestingly, participants switched roles for a final, fourth essay (the brain-only group used AI and vice versa). The AI-to-brain group performed worse and had engagement that was only slightly better than the other group’s during their first session, far below the engagement of the brain-only group in their third session.

    The authors claim this demonstrates how prolonged use of AI led to participants accumulating “cognitive debt”. When they finally had the opportunity to use their brains, they were unable to replicate the engagement or perform as well as the other two groups.

    Cautiously, the authors note that only 18 participants (six per condition) completed the fourth, final session. Therefore, the findings are preliminary and require further testing.

    Does this really show AI makes us stupider?

    These results do not necessarily mean that students who used AI accumulated “cognitive debt”. In our view, the findings are due to the particular design of the study.

    The change in neural connectivity of the brain-only group over the first three sessions was likely the result of becoming more familiar with the study task, a phenomenon known as the familiarisation effect. As study participants repeat the task, they become more familiar and efficient, and their cognitive strategy adapts accordingly.

    When the AI group finally got to “use their brains”, they were only doing the task once. As a result, they were unable to match the other group’s experience. They achieved only slightly better engagement than the brain-only group during the first session.

    To fully justify the researchers’ claims, the AI-to-brain participants would also need to complete three writing sessions without AI.

    Similarly, the fact the brain-to-AI group used ChatGPT more productively and strategically is likely due to the nature of the fourth writing task, which required writing an essay on one of the previous three topics.

    As writing without AI required more substantial engagement, they had a far better recall of what they had written in the past. Hence, they primarily used AI to search for new information and refine what they had previously written.

    What are the implications of AI in assessment?

    To understand the current situation with AI, we can look back to what happened when calculators first became available.

    Back in the 1970s, their impact was regulated by making exams much harder. Instead of doing calculations by hand, students were expected to use calculators and spend their cognitive efforts on more complex tasks.

    Effectively, the bar was significantly raised, which made students work equally hard (if not harder) than before calculators were available.

    The challenge with AI is that, for the most part, educators have not raised the bar in a way that makes AI a necessary part of the process. Educators still require students to complete the same tasks and expect the same standard of work as they did five years ago.

    In such situations, AI can indeed be detrimental. Students can for the most part offload critical engagement with learning to AI, which results in “metacognitive laziness”.

    However, just like calculators, AI can and should help us accomplish tasks that were previously impossible – and still require significant engagement. For example, we might ask teaching students to use AI to produce a detailed lesson plan, which will then be evaluated for quality and pedagogical soundness in an oral examination.

    In the MIT study, participants who used AI were producing the “same old” essays. They adjusted their engagement to deliver the standard of work expected of them.

    The same would happen if students were asked to perform complex calculations with or without a calculator. The group doing calculations by hand would sweat, while those with calculators would barely blink an eye.

    Learning how to use AI

    Current and future generations need to be able to think critically and creatively and solve problems. However, AI is changing what these things mean.

    Producing essays with pen and paper is no longer a demonstration of critical thinking ability, just as doing long division is no longer a demonstration of numeracy.

    Knowing when, where and how to use AI is the key to long-term success and skill development. Prioritising which tasks can be offloaded to an AI to reduce cognitive debt is just as important as understanding which tasks require genuine creativity and critical thinking.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. MIT researchers say using ChatGPT can rot your brain. The truth is a little more complicated – https://theconversation.com/mit-researchers-say-using-chatgpt-can-rot-your-brain-the-truth-is-a-little-more-complicated-259450

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ’s plan to ‘welcome anyone, from anywhere, anytime’ is not a sustainable tourism policy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Regina Scheyvens, Professor of Development Studies, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Getty Images

    Attracting more Chinese tourists to New Zealand, including during the off-season, was a major part of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s trade agenda during his visit to China last week. As Tourism Minister Louise Upston put it: “we welcome anyone, from anywhere, anytime”.

    It’s all part of the government’s plan to “turbocharge” the tourism sector with an additional NZ$13.5 million for marketing this year. The hope is this will help double the value of tourism as an export earner by 2034.

    The China visit built on the government’s Tourism Growth Roadmap which aims to attract 3.89 million visitors by 2026, and 4.78 million by 2030-34.

    Ironically, the release of the roadmap coincided with unprecedented, organised push-back against mass tourism across southern Europe this month. Fed up with the economic and cultural impact of too much “touristification”, residents of popular cities and islands in Italy, Portugal and Spain took part in coordinated protests, some even spraying tourists with water pistols.

    Before COVID upended international tourism in 2020, similar serious concerns were voiced in New Zealand about environmental degradation, crowding and congestion, and declining public support for tourism.

    But the plan to turbocharge tourism specifically aims to return international visitor arrivals to pre-COVID levels.

    From destination management to marketing

    As part of the government’s Tourism Boost Package, money generated by the International Visitor Levy (IVL) will be spent driving demand in Australia and elsewhere over the next two years.

    But this use of the visitor levy (which was raised to $100 in October last year) seems at odds with its stated purpose. According to New Zealand Immigration, “The IVL is your contribution to maintaining the facilities and natural environment you will use and enjoy during your stay”.

    Visitor levy revenue was strategically intended to support tourism regions to protect their natural environments and maintain crucial infrastructure.

    Diverting visitor levy income to fund overall tourism growth also seems to turn a deaf ear to the 2020 interim report from the Tourism Futures Taskforce and the 2023 Tourism Adaptation Roadmap from the Aotearoa Circle industry group.

    Both were widely acknowledged for their vision and ambition to create a future tourism that served the aspirations of Māori and local communities.

    There’s also a risk of the 29 Destination Management Plans developed since 2021 (with financial support from the visitor levy) being shelved in this detour from destination management to marketing.

    Anti-tourism protesters in Barcelona brandish water pistols, June 15.
    Getty Images

    Redefining tourism ‘value’

    There are several key questions about the practical implications of the government’s growth-oriented tourism development approach.

    Firstly, staff and infrastructure limitations mean destinations and business will struggle to accommodate more numbers. As the acting mayor of MacKenzie District has noted, several businesses around Tekapo were forced to operate below capacity last summer because there was no suitable housing available for the staff, only up-market holiday rentals.

    New Zealand also faces a tourism workforce crisis. Over the past ten years, there has been a 63% drop in the number of students taking tourism-related tertiary courses, and a 73% decrease in those completing hospitality courses.

    Meanwhile, from Northland to Queenstown, basic utilities such as electricity and drinking water are being stretched beyond capacity during peak visitation times.

    Secondly, there is a real risk of environmental damage from overtourism compromising the appeal of iconic attractions and destinations.

    But despite concern over growing visitor pressure at Piopiotahi/Milford Sound over the past decade, the government recently rejected a plan to manage numbers and ban cruise ships in the inner sound.

    Thirdly, there is the risk of tourism losing its social licence, as is happening in parts of Europe, given the huge burdens on small communities. As the mayor of Queenstown said recently: “When I first started as the mayor, I think it was one resident night to every 30 visitor nights. It is now one to 47.”

    Ultimately, long-term value creation through tourism can only happen when “value” is defined in more than monetary terms and in ways that deliver for all stakeholders, including businesses, visitors, communities, mana whenua and nature.

    The government’s focus on “turbocharging” economic growth through tourism now puts at risk what little progress has been made toward a sustainable tourism model and giving the regions most affected a voice.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NZ’s plan to ‘welcome anyone, from anywhere, anytime’ is not a sustainable tourism policy – https://theconversation.com/nzs-plan-to-welcome-anyone-from-anywhere-anytime-is-not-a-sustainable-tourism-policy-259246

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Myth meets modernity in Aphrodite, a striking opera that dissects the links between beauty, power and desire

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Case, Lecturer in Musicology, Sydney Conservatorium of Music, University of Sydney

    Daniel Boud

    A new opera by American composer Nico Muhly is reimagining the myth of Aphrodite through a contemporary lens, exploring beauty, desire and identity in a strikingly relevant way.

    Aphrodite had its world premiere on Friday at Sydney’s Carriageworks arts precinct. The opera is directed by Alexander Berlage, performed by the Sydney Chamber Opera (in collaboration with Omega Ensemble), and features a sharp libretto by Melbourne playwright Laura Lethlean.

    It is a reflective production that challenges societal ideals and the enduring weight of cultural myths.

    A contemporary take on mythology

    Rather than simply retelling the myth, Nico Muhly’s Aphrodite engages in a creative dialogue with it. Through its protagonist Ava, an author and recently divorced mother of three, it interrogates the ideals and pressures associated with beauty and desirability.

    The story opens as Ava (Jessica O’Donoghue) returns to her hotel room after the premiere of a Netflix documentary based on her best-selling book, The Aphrodite Complex.

    Alone, Ava confronts personal insecurities, societal critiques, the fallout from her divorce, and fantasies of Hector, the young director of photography who worked on the documentary’s production with her in Athens.

    From her vulnerability emerges Aphrodite (Meechot Marrero) – a manifestation of the mythical Greek goddess, and a subconscious force embodying Ava’s desires and fears.

    Meechot Marrero is phenomenal as Aphrodite, embodying the goddess’s power.
    Daniel Boud

    Although it is brief (running for one hour) the opera’s plot is tightly focused. It centres on Ava’s emotional unravelling and her interaction with Aphrodite.

    The interplay between both characters blurs the boundaries between myth and reality, exploring how the stories we tell about ourselves, our culture, and our ideals, shape our identities.

    The opera poses profound questions. What does it means to be beautiful? Does beauty bestow power? How do societal expectations distort perceptions of self worth?

    Despite her academic expertise in deconstructing the Aphrodite myth, Ava finds herself trapped in the very ideals she critiques. This highlights the inescapable pull these ancient narratives continue to have in contemporary life.

    A visually stunning experience

    From the moment Ava steps on stage in a black tailored suit and heels, the opera’s modern aesthetic is unmistakable.

    The setting, designed by Isabel Hudson, is confined to a single hotel suite, including a bedroom, wardrobe and bathroom, with the bedroom backlit by a city skyline. Everyday details such as a flatscreen TV and a minibar cart create an atmosphere that feels both intimate and starkly contemporary.

    The opera, with its unmistakably contemporary setting, seems made with the modern viewer in mind.
    Daniel Boud

    A standout feature is the black-and-white screen above the stage. This screen displays subtitles for the English libretto, alongside live visuals of the performance (handled by video designer Morgan Moroney).

    The projections, captured by roving cameras, do more than just document the action. They add an artistic layer by focusing on intimate details, such as a hand gripping a thigh, or toes curling in a carpet.

    This visual storytelling evokes the voyeuristic tone of a music video or vintage film noir, accentuating the themes of scrutiny and self-perception. It reflects both the mythological obsession with beauty and the modern culture of constant observation.

    As the opera progresses, the visuals evolve. Toward the climax, earlier footage is replayed, creating a dynamic where Ava and Aphrodite must confront their own images. This layering transforms the cameras from passive observers into active participants.

    Musically engaging

    Muhly’s score is performed with technical brilliance by Omega Ensemble, and perfectly complements Lethlean’s libretto.

    Ava’s music alternates between structured and rhythmic patterns, reflecting her controlled persona – while more fragmented and fluid melodies mirror her internal struggles.

    By contrast, Aphrodite’s music is bold and forceful, underscoring the goddess’s power and allure. As the narrative unfolds, the musical identities of Ava and Aphrodite intertwine, mirroring the blurring of their characters.

    The collaboration between the Sydney Chamber Opera, Omega Ensemble, and the creative team results in a production that is intellectually stimulating and musically stunning.
    Daniel Boud

    The opera’s success is due in no small part to the extraordinary performances of its two leads. Jessica O’Donoghue is outstanding as Ava, delivering a vocally precise and emotionally raw performance. She captures Ava’s complexities – such as her intellectual sharpness and emotional vulnerability – with extraordinary depth.

    Meechot Marrero is equally phenomenal as Aphrodite. Marrero embodies the goddess’s desirability and power with a commanding stage presence and thrilling vocals.

    Together, O’Donoghue and Marrero create a dynamic interplay that forms the opera’s emotional core.

    A triumph of modern opera

    In Aphrodite, Nico Muhly and Laura Lethlean have created a bold and thought-provoking opera that will resonate deeply with contemporary audiences.

    It is not merely a performance, but an experience that will linger long after the final note. By reframing mythology through a modern lens, it challenges us to reconsider the ideals we uphold, and the myths we live by.

    Aphrodite is a powerful reminder that beauty, like myth, is multifaceted: its power lies not in perfection, but in its ability to challenge, inspire and transform.

    Aphrodite is on at Carriageworks, Sydney, until June 28.

    Laura Case does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Myth meets modernity in Aphrodite, a striking opera that dissects the links between beauty, power and desire – https://theconversation.com/myth-meets-modernity-in-aphrodite-a-striking-opera-that-dissects-the-links-between-beauty-power-and-desire-257964

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 23, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 23, 2025.

    Illegal US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities came in spite of no evidence
    BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem Kia ora koutou, I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground. The US struck three of Iran’s nuclear facilities overnight, entering the illegal aggression on Iran with heavy airstrikes despite no

    My kids only want to eat processed foods. How can I get them eating a healthier and more varied diet?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Fuller, Clinical Trials Director, Department of Endocrinology, RPA Hospital, University of Sydney If it feels like your child’s diet consists entirely of breakfast cereal, chicken nuggets and snacks that’d outlast the apocalypse, you’re not alone. Processed foods are the go-to for many kids, and for some,

    Defence Force to send plane to assist New Zealanders stranded in Iran and Israel
    By Giles Dexter, RNZ News political reporter The Defence Force is sending a plane to the Middle East to assist any New Zealanders stranded in Iran or Israel. The C-130J Hercules, along with government personnel, will leave Auckland on Monday. Airspace is still closed in the region, but Defence Minister Judith Collins said the deployment

    Trump’s decision to bomb Iran exposes fissures in US politics
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney US President Donald Trump’s strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which he foreshadowed on and off for the past few days, has revealed a surprisingly broad middle ground in US politics, even as it has provoked

    Leaders in US-affiliated Pacific react to surprise strikes on Iran
    By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent Leaders in the US-affliliated Pacific Islands have reacted to the US strikes on Iran. US president Donald Trump said Iran must now make peace or “we will go after” other targets in Iran, after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said

    Global warming is changing cloud patterns. That means more global warming
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University Caleb Weiner / Unsplash At any given time, about two-thirds of Earth’s surface is covered by clouds. Overall, they make the planet much cooler than it would be without them. But

    NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick William Smith, Associate Investigator in Nutritional Science, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University Shutterstock/Alesia Bierliezova The latest update to the New Zealand food composition database, a comprehensive collection of nutrient data collated jointly by Plant & Food Research and the Ministry of Health, brings more

    How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Shub, Obstetrician & Maternal Fetal Medicine specialist, The University of Melbourne How Australian pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is set to change, with new national guidelines released today. Changes are expected to lead to fewer diagnoses in women at lower risk, reducing the burden

    Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Unexpected severe turbulence injured crew and passengers on a Qantas Boeing 737 during descent at Brisbane on May 4 2024. The subsequent Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigation suggested the severity of the turbulence

    Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University Katerina Elagina/Shutterstock One of the most sought-after items of 2025 isn’t a designer handbag or the latest tech gadget. It’s a plush elf with a snaggle-toothed grin. Labubu (拉布布) is a global sensation. From David Beckham and

    Pro-independence advocates urge MSG to elevate West Papua membership
    By Scott Waide, RNZ Pacific PNG correspondent Two international organisations are leading a call for the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) to elevate the membership status of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) at their upcoming summit in Honiara in September. The collective, led by International Parliamentarians for West Papua (IPWP) and International Lawyers

    Starving Gaza civilians toll climbs at Israeli humanitarian ‘death traps’
    Pacific Media Watch BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem Kia ora koutou, I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground. Israeli forces killed over 200 Palestinians in Gaza over the last 48 hours, injuring over 1037. Countless

    NZ group slams Israeli ‘hoodwinking’ of US over nuclear strikes – Peters calls for talks
    Asia Pacific Report The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa has called on New Zealanders to condemn the US bombing of Iran. PSNA co-chair Maher Nazzal said in a statement that he hoped the New Zealand government would be critical of the US for its war escalation. “Israel has once again hoodwinked the United States into fighting

    The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. Here are 3 scenarios for what might happen next
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Middle East Studies, Australian National University After prevaricating about whether the United States would enter Israel’s war on Iran, President Donald Trump finally made a decision. Early Sunday, US warplanes struck three of Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, where the

    What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Dwyer, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania The jagged silhouette of a B2 stealth bomber seen during a 2015 flyover in the US. Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Late on Saturday night, local time, the United States carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear enrichment

    Muted response from Albanese government on US attack on Iran
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government has given a tepid response to the United States’ bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement from a government spokesperson, but there were no plans on Sunday afternoon for Anthony Albanese or

    What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran – and what might happen now
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Dwyer, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania The jagged silhouette of a B2 stealth bomber seen during a 2015 flyover in the US. Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Late on Saturday night, local time, the United States carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear enrichment

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Illegal US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities came in spite of no evidence

    BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

    Kia ora koutou,

    I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

    The US struck three of Iran’s nuclear facilities overnight, entering the illegal aggression on Iran with heavy airstrikes despite no evidence that nuclear weapons are being developed. Israel continued its strikes attacking dozens of locations across Iran throughout the day. Three were killed in an Israeli drone attack on an ambulance in central Iran. At least 400 have been killed and 2000 injured, according to the latest Health Ministry figures.

    *

    Heavy Iranian retaliation strikes on Israeli territories saw about 27 injured.

    *

    At least 47 killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza today, 18 while seeking aid. Two killed and 15 wounded in an Israeli airstrike on a house west of Gaza city. The murder of firefighter Muhammad Ghurab brings the total Gaza civil defence casualties to 121, representing 14.3 percent of its employees.

    Today I met a 10-year-old kid called Hassan on the streets of Bethlehem. He was looking for work. His dad had recently stopped working, unemployed like many in Bethlehem; around 80 percent of jobs here depend on tourism. He lives in al-Khader village, an hour’s walk away, but without opportunities there he had walked all this way in an attempt to help support his family.

    Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank has suffocated the economy here for decades. Now, as the genocidal war on Gaza continues and Israeli aggression expands to Iran, drawing in the USA and threatening regional collapse, a 10-year-old boy takes to the streets of Bethlehem to find work.

    *

    Israel’s illegal siege across the West Bank continues. Large numbers of Israeli soldiers conducted extensive raids on Bethlehem’s Dheisheh camp including demolitions, arrests, and interrogations last night. Mass demolitions continue across Nour Shams camp in the north, and further arrests, demolitions, and incursions took place across the West Bank. Bethlehem’s gasoline shortages continue due to Israel’s ongoing siege.

    *

    Twenty five killed in a terror attack targeting Mar Elias Church in Damascus, Syria.

    Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s decision to bomb Iran exposes fissures in US politics

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    US President Donald Trump’s strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which he foreshadowed on and off for the past few days, has revealed a surprisingly broad middle ground in US politics, even as it has provoked controversy in the international community.

    Almost immediately after news of the US military action broke, John Fetterman, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, blasted out a statement of support, calling the attack the “correct move”.

    Steny Hoyer of Maryland, who spent decades in House Democratic Leadership roles, said the strike “was essential to preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon”.

    Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro, a likely presidential candidate in 2028, gave a thoughtful evaluation of the attack, calling Iran’s nuclear weapons program “dangerous”.

    Other Democrats were more muted. Leading Senators, including Leader Chuck Schumer, complained about the lack of congressional authorisation and the administration’s failure to consult Congress before the strike, but didn’t specifically oppose the US action.

    In the US system, only Congress can declare war, but the president has broad power as commander-in-chief to respond to threats. Most defenders of presidential authority acknowledge his authority to act militarily – particularly when the US’s role is highly limited, such as in the Iran strike. Should US involvement deepen, the calls for a congressional role in authorising the war will become louder and more legitimate.

    Some on the far left, including Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, openly opposed the strike and even called for Trump’s impeachment. Ocasio-Cortez said:

    The President’s disastrous decision to bomb Iran without authorization is a grave violation of the Constitution and Congressional War Powers. He has impulsively risked launching a war that may ensnare us for generations. It is absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment.

    On the Republican side, there has also not been unanimous support for the strike.

    Even within the president’s coalition, some isolationists have been opposed to any US strike on Iran. They rightly pointed out that Trump campaigned on ending wars, not starting them.

    Media personalities Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon openly urged the president not to strike Iran. Carlson’s interview on the issue with hawkish Republican Ted Cruz gathered huge attention on social media.

    Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence and a member of his cabinet, went so far as to make a video about the horrors of nuclear conflict.

    Trump’s reaction to Gabbard’s video was furious. He even suggested he might eliminate her office, which is charged with coordinating America’s many intelligence agencies.

    Trump also called Carlson, whose millions-strong following on X is a key component of Trump’s political base, “kooky” for opposing a strike on Iran. Trump later walked that back, saying Carlson had called to apologise, and that Carlson “is a nice guy”.

    In Congress, one notable Trump ally opposed the Iran attack. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial congresswoman from Georgia, said:

    Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war […] This is not our fight. Peace is the answer.

    Trump’s decision has wide cross-party support

    It is certainly fair to look closely at Trump’s base and explore divisions and disagreements. However, it is highly likely that Trump’s dominant personality means he will keep the vast majority of his base together.

    More revealing about US politics is the support across the aisle for his Iran policy.

    Trump’s brash manner and divisive rhetoric make it difficult for Democrats to support him in any circumstance, but the US people’s disdain for Iran appears to be much stronger.

    In 1979, Iranian revolutionaries took 52 US diplomats hostage. The image of those captive hostages blindfolded and at the mercy of Iranian radicals is burned into older Americans’ brains.

    A generation later, Iran-backed militias killed more than 600 Americans in the war in Iraq. There are other sins Iran has committed against the US, included the attempted assassination of Trump. In this context, Trump’s policy is in the US mainstream.

    Why didn’t Trump consult Congress?

    It has been the standard practice of US presidents to brief the bipartisan leadership of Congress on key national security initiatives, such as a strikes on adversaries. While not a hard-and-fast rule, the practice can produce more bipartisan support for a president’s actions that he might otherwise have. It’s not unreasonable to think senior congressional Democrats might be more openly supportive of the Iran strike if they had been consulted in this manner.

    However, Trump and his administration did not do this, for a reason. There is little value in open bipartisanship in America today. Even though both parties are very close on Iran policy, neither wants that to be seen in public as cooperating across the aisle. Each party would much rather make the case to its base that it represents their interests and is not willing to compromise with the other party. Support from Democrats does not strengthen Trump, as his base is highly suspicious of the opposition party.

    The reverse is true for elected Democrats, including those in leadership. They will be more vulnerable from progressives in next year’s primary contests if they are seen as insufficiently resisting Trump. There is no Trump-like figure in their party to protect them from this base.

    In US politics today, nothing is more dangerous than agreeing with the other party. There is a premium value on publicly opposing your political adversaries, no matter what the issue. It makes for a foreign policy that appears more fractured than it actually is.

    Lester Munson receives funding from the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He is affiliated with the Republican Party.

    – ref. Trump’s decision to bomb Iran exposes fissures in US politics – https://theconversation.com/trumps-decision-to-bomb-iran-exposes-fissures-in-us-politics-259446

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: My kids only want to eat processed foods. How can I get them eating a healthier and more varied diet?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Fuller, Clinical Trials Director, Department of Endocrinology, RPA Hospital, University of Sydney

    If it feels like your child’s diet consists entirely of breakfast cereal, chicken nuggets and snacks that’d outlast the apocalypse, you’re not alone.

    Processed foods are the go-to for many kids, and for some, they’re the only foods they’ll eat.

    Here’s why – and what you can do about it.

    Processed foods and their prevalence in kids’ diets

    Processed foods are any foods altered from their natural state.

    While some food processing is beneficial – such as pasteurising milk to kill bacteria – the ones that cause parents concern are ultra-processed foods, which use industrial methods to enhance flavour, texture and shelf life by adding sugars, salt, fats and artificial flavours, colours and preservatives.

    Parents know some ultra-processed foods all too well – they’re the fast and junk foods kids love. But others hide in plain sight, disguised as “healthy” convenience foods such as flavoured yoghurts and muffins.

    Ultra-processed foods offer low-to-no nutrition, which is why dietary guidelines recommend limiting them. But these
    “discretionary foods” make up one-third of Aussie kids’ daily energy intake.

    Why do kids find processed foods so appealing?

    Basic biology

    Ultra-processed foods are engineered to be addictive, with their added sugar, salt and fat activating kids’ brains’ reward system, releasing feelgood chemicals.

    Evolution has hardwired humans to seek natural sugar- and fat-rich foods – a physiological response our hunter-gatherer ancestors developed to avoid starvation.

    Food fussiness

    One in two kids will experience a fussy eating phase – another survival response inherited from our ancestors, who avoided toxins by developing an aversion to unfamiliar and bitter foods.

    Fussy eaters also favour ultra-processed foods, such as chicken nuggets, chips and breakfast cereals, because they’re familiar and non-threatening, often beige like breastmilk and kids’ first solid foods. Plus their blander flavours don’t overwhelm developing tastebuds.

    Pester power

    From sneaky YouTube ads to eye-level supermarket displays, kids are incessantly exposed to marketing that makes them crave – and demand – ultra-processed foods.

    How processed foods impact kids’ health

    Ultra-processed foods can impact kids’ health in a range of ways, contributing to:

    • nutritional deficiencies. Kids filling up on ultra-processed foods are less likely to eat vegetables, fruits, whole grains and lean meats, producing a diet lacking in fibre and other key nutrients needed for growth and development

    • childhood obesity. Ultra-processed foods are high in calories, unhealthy sugars, salt and fat, and often lack portion control, promoting overeating

    • increased risk of diseases. Long-term overconsumption of ultra-processed foods is linked with a higher risk of developing a range of chronic diseases, including heart disease, type 2 diabetes and cancer.

    Unhealthy eating habits can be hard to break, but positive diet and lifestyle changes – even later in childhood – can reverse these negative health effects.

    Science-based tips for healthier eating habits

    1. Eat together

    Family mealtimes allow you to model healthy eating. Sit together around the table, share the same meal, and put devices away so everyone’s attention is on eating.

    2. Introduce foods carefully

    Research shows kids need eight to ten exposures before they willingly eat new foods. So offer them regularly, encourage tasting and don’t pressure them to eat.

    While it’s tempting, avoid offering dessert as a reward for trying something healthy. Using treats as a reward increases kids’ preference for unhealthy foods.

    Kids are also more likely to try new foods when they’re hungry, so avoid snacks one to preferably two hours before mealtimes.

    3. Introduce variety to family favourites

    Children are more open to trying new foods when there’s something familiar on their plate.

    So, tweak family favourites by swapping ingredients, such as using lentils instead of beef in bolognese or roasting carrots to make “orange chippies”. Grating veggies into sauces also expands kids’ diets without overwhelming them.

    4. Make food fun

    Children respond positively when healthy foods are presented in fun ways, so include different colours, textures and shapes on their plate to hold their interest.

    Changing meal locations – and enjoying an occasional outdoor picnic – is another simple way to make mealtimes feel special and fun.

    Changing where you eat can make meals fun.
    RDNE/Pexels

    5. Teach kids about the science of food

    Teaching children in an age-appropriate way about the foods we eat promotes healthier eating, so:

    • encourage kids to grow herbs and veggies so they understand where healthy food comes from: toddlers can harvest produce; older kids can plant and prune

    • visit the greengrocer, fishmonger and butcher regularly so kids can see and explore the healthy foods on offer

    • talk to toddlers about food in energy terms: “eating wholegrain toast helps you play longer”

    • share fun facts with older kids: “fish has a special type of fat called omega-3 that makes us smarter”.

    6. Involve kids in cooking

    Spark kids’ interest in healthy meals by involving them in food preparation. Let them choose recipes and take on age-appropriate tasks such as mixing and chopping.

    When kids help make a meal, they feel proud of their effort, and research shows they’re more likely to try what they’ve created.

    It takes about two months to form a habit, so expect resistance along the way. But with perseverance, we can shift kids’ love of processed foods toward healthier choices, helping them establish healthy eating habits for life.

    Nick Fuller is the author of Healthy Parents, Healthy Kids – Six Steps to Total Family Wellness.

    A/Professor Nick Fuller works for the University of Sydney and RPA Hospital and has received external funding for projects relating to the treatment of overweight and obesity. He is the author and founder of the Interval Weight Loss program, and the author of Healthy Parents, Healthy Kids with Penguin Books.

    – ref. My kids only want to eat processed foods. How can I get them eating a healthier and more varied diet? – https://theconversation.com/my-kids-only-want-to-eat-processed-foods-how-can-i-get-them-eating-a-healthier-and-more-varied-diet-242764

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Defence Force to send plane to assist New Zealanders stranded in Iran and Israel

    By Giles Dexter, RNZ News political reporter

    The Defence Force is sending a plane to the Middle East to assist any New Zealanders stranded in Iran or Israel.

    The C-130J Hercules, along with government personnel, will leave Auckland on Monday.

    Airspace is still closed in the region, but Defence Minister Judith Collins said the deployment was part of New Zealand’s contingency plans.

    “Airspace in Israel and Iran remains heavily restricted, which means getting people out by aircraft is not yet possible, but by positioning an aircraft, and defence and foreign affairs personnel in the region, we may be able to do more when airspace reopens,” she said.

    The government was also in discussions with commercial airlines to see what they could do to assist, although it was uncertain when airspace would reopen.

    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said New Zealanders should do everything they could to leave now, if they could find a safe route.

    “We know it will not be safe for everyone to leave Iran or Israel, and many people may not have access to transport or fuel supplies,” he said.

    ‘Stay in touch’
    “If you are in this situation, you should shelter in place, follow appropriate advice from local authorities and stay in touch with family and friends where possible.”

    Peters reiterated New Zealand’s call for diplomacy and dialogue.

    “Ongoing military action in the Middle East is extremely worrying and it is critical further escalation is avoided,” he said. “New Zealand strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy.

    “We urge all parties to return to talks. Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

    NZ’s Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters address the media . . . “Look, this is a danger zone . . . Get out if you possibly can.” Image: RNZ/Calvin Samuel

    It will take a few days for the Hercules to reach the region.

    New Zealanders in Iran and Israel needing urgent consular assistance should call the Ministry’s Emergency Consular Call Centre on +64 99 20 20 20.

    New Zealand hoped the aircraft and personnel would not be needed, and diplomatic efforts would prevail, Collins re-iterated.

    The ministers would not say where exactly the plane and personnel would be based, for security reasons.

    Registered number in Iran jumps
    Peters told reporters the number of New Zealanders registered in Iran had jumped since the escalation of the crisis.

    How the New Zealand Herald, the country’s largest newspaper, reported the US strike on Iran today. Image: APR

    “We thought, at a certain time, we had them all counted out at 46,” he said. “It’s far more closer to 80 now, because they’re coming out of the woodwork, despite the fact that, for months, we said, ‘Look, this is a danger zone’, and for a number of days we’ve said, ‘Get out if you possibly can’.”

    There were 101 New Zealanders registered in Israel. Again, Peters said the figure had risen recently.

    He indicated people from other nations could be assisted, similar to when the NZDF assisted in repatriations from New Caledonia last year.

    Labour defence spokesperson Peeni Henare supported the move.

    “I acknowledge the news that the New Zealand Defence Force will soon begin a repatriation mission to the Middle East, and thank the crew and officials on this mission for their ongoing work to bring New Zealanders home safely,” he said.

    While he agreed with the government that the attacks were a dangerous escalation of the conflict and supported the government’s calls for dialogue, he said the US bombing of Iran was a breach of international law and the government should be saying it.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Defence Force to send plane to assist New Zealanders stranded in Iran and Israel

    By Giles Dexter, RNZ News political reporter

    The Defence Force is sending a plane to the Middle East to assist any New Zealanders stranded in Iran or Israel.

    The C-130J Hercules, along with government personnel, will leave Auckland on Monday.

    Airspace is still closed in the region, but Defence Minister Judith Collins said the deployment was part of New Zealand’s contingency plans.

    “Airspace in Israel and Iran remains heavily restricted, which means getting people out by aircraft is not yet possible, but by positioning an aircraft, and defence and foreign affairs personnel in the region, we may be able to do more when airspace reopens,” she said.

    The government was also in discussions with commercial airlines to see what they could do to assist, although it was uncertain when airspace would reopen.

    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said New Zealanders should do everything they could to leave now, if they could find a safe route.

    “We know it will not be safe for everyone to leave Iran or Israel, and many people may not have access to transport or fuel supplies,” he said.

    ‘Stay in touch’
    “If you are in this situation, you should shelter in place, follow appropriate advice from local authorities and stay in touch with family and friends where possible.”

    Peters reiterated New Zealand’s call for diplomacy and dialogue.

    “Ongoing military action in the Middle East is extremely worrying and it is critical further escalation is avoided,” he said. “New Zealand strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy.

    “We urge all parties to return to talks. Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

    NZ’s Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters address the media . . . “Look, this is a danger zone . . . Get out if you possibly can.” Image: RNZ/Calvin Samuel

    It will take a few days for the Hercules to reach the region.

    New Zealanders in Iran and Israel needing urgent consular assistance should call the Ministry’s Emergency Consular Call Centre on +64 99 20 20 20.

    New Zealand hoped the aircraft and personnel would not be needed, and diplomatic efforts would prevail, Collins re-iterated.

    The ministers would not say where exactly the plane and personnel would be based, for security reasons.

    Registered number in Iran jumps
    Peters told reporters the number of New Zealanders registered in Iran had jumped since the escalation of the crisis.

    How the New Zealand Herald, the country’s largest newspaper, reported the US strike on Iran today. Image: APR

    “We thought, at a certain time, we had them all counted out at 46,” he said. “It’s far more closer to 80 now, because they’re coming out of the woodwork, despite the fact that, for months, we said, ‘Look, this is a danger zone’, and for a number of days we’ve said, ‘Get out if you possibly can’.”

    There were 101 New Zealanders registered in Israel. Again, Peters said the figure had risen recently.

    He indicated people from other nations could be assisted, similar to when the NZDF assisted in repatriations from New Caledonia last year.

    Labour defence spokesperson Peeni Henare supported the move.

    “I acknowledge the news that the New Zealand Defence Force will soon begin a repatriation mission to the Middle East, and thank the crew and officials on this mission for their ongoing work to bring New Zealanders home safely,” he said.

    While he agreed with the government that the attacks were a dangerous escalation of the conflict and supported the government’s calls for dialogue, he said the US bombing of Iran was a breach of international law and the government should be saying it.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Leaders in US-affiliated Pacific react to surprise strikes on Iran

    By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent

    Leaders in the US-affliliated Pacific Islands have reacted to the US strikes on Iran.

    US president Donald Trump said Iran must now make peace or “we will go after” other targets in Iran, after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

    Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US had begun a “dangerous war against Iran”, according to a statement shared by Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.

    Governor Arnold Palacios of the Northern Marianas said he WAs “monitoring the situation in our region with our US military partners”.

    “The Northern Marianas remains alert and we remain positively hopeful and confident that peace and diplomacy reign for the benefit of our fellow brethren here at home and around the world.”

    Governor Arnold Palacios of the Northern Marianas . . . “monitoring the situation.” Image: Mark Rabago/RNZ Pacific

    Delegate Kimberlyn King-Hinds said the Marianas had long understood “the delicate balance between strategic presence and peace”.

    “As tensions rise in the Middle East, I’m hopeful that diplomacy remains the guiding force,” she said.

    “My prayers are with the service members and their families throughout the region, most especially those from our islands who quietly serve in defense of global stability.”

    No credible threats
    Guam’s Governor Lou Leon Guerrero said that there were no credible threats to their island, and “we will do everything in our power to keep Guam safe”.

    “Our people have always been resilient in the face of uncertainty, and today, as we watch our nation take action overseas, that strength matters more than ever,” she said.

    “Guam is proud to support the men and women who serve our country — and we feel the weight of that commitment every day as home to vital military installations.”

    She said she and her team have been in close touch with local military leaders.

    “I encourage everyone to stay calm and informed by official sources, to look out for one another, and to hold in our thoughts the troops, their loved ones, and all innocent people caught in this conflict.”

    Lieutenant-Governor Josh Tenorio said: “What is unfolding in the Middle East is serious, and it reminds us that our prayers and our preparedness must go hand in hand.

    “While we stand by our troops and support our national security, we also remain committed to the values of peace and resilience. Our teams are working closely with our Homeland Security advisor, Joint Region Marianas, Joint Task Force-Micronesia, and the Guam National Guard to stay ahead of any changes.”

    Long-time warnings
    Meanwhile, Mark Anufat Terlaje-Pangelinan, one of the protesters during the recent 32nd Pacific Islands Environmental Training Symposium on Saipan, said he was not surprised by the US attack on Iran.

    “This is exactly what we concerned citizens have been warning against for the longest time,” he said.

    Terlaje-Pangelinan said the potential of CNMI troops and the Marianas itself being dragged into a wider and more protracted conflict was disheartening.

    “Perpetuating the concept of the CNMI being a tip of the spear more than being a bridge for peace between the Pacific landscapes does more harm than good.

    “The CNMI will never be fully prepped for war. With our only safe havens being the limited number of caves we have on island, we are at more risk to be under attack than any other part of America.”

    Iran requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, it said in a letter issued Sunday, urging the council to condemn the US strikes on its nuclear facilities.

    UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has described the US military action in Iran as a direct threat to world peace and security.

    Officials in Iran are downplaying the impact of US strikes on its nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow site buried deep in the mountains, in sharp contrast with Trump’s claims that the attack “obliterated” them.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s decision to bomb Iran exposes fissures in US politics

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    US President Donald Trump’s strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which he foreshadowed on and off for the past few days, has revealed a surprisingly broad middle ground in US politics, even as it has provoked controversy in the international community.

    Almost immediately after news of the US military action broke, John Fetterman, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, blasted out a statement of support, calling the attack the “correct move”.

    Steny Hoyer of Maryland, who spent decades in House Democratic Leadership roles, said the strike “was essential to preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon”.

    Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro, a likely presidential candidate in 2028, gave a thoughtful evaluation of the attack, calling Iran’s nuclear weapons program “dangerous”.

    Other Democrats were more muted. Leading Senators, including Leader Chuck Schumer, complained about the lack of congressional authorisation and the administration’s failure to consult Congress before the strike, but didn’t specifically oppose the US action.

    In the US system, only Congress can declare war, but the president has broad power as commander-in-chief to respond to threats. Most defenders of presidential authority acknowledge his authority to act militarily – particularly when the US’s role is highly limited, such as in the Iran strike. Should US involvement deepen, the calls for a congressional role in authorising the war will become louder and more legitimate.

    Some on the far left, including Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, openly opposed the strike and even called for Trump’s impeachment. Ocasio-Cortez said:

    The President’s disastrous decision to bomb Iran without authorization is a grave violation of the Constitution and Congressional War Powers. He has impulsively risked launching a war that may ensnare us for generations. It is absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment.

    On the Republican side, there has also not been unanimous support for the strike.

    Even within the president’s coalition, some isolationists have been opposed to any US strike on Iran. They rightly pointed out that Trump campaigned on ending wars, not starting them.

    Media personalities Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon openly urged the president not to strike Iran. Carlson’s interview on the issue with hawkish Republican Ted Cruz gathered huge attention on social media.

    Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence and a member of his cabinet, went so far as to make a video about the horrors of nuclear conflict.

    Trump’s reaction to Gabbard’s video was furious. He even suggested he might eliminate her office, which is charged with coordinating America’s many intelligence agencies.

    Trump also called Carlson, whose millions-strong following on X is a key component of Trump’s political base, “kooky” for opposing a strike on Iran. Trump later walked that back, saying Carlson had called to apologise, and that Carlson “is a nice guy”.

    In Congress, one notable Trump ally opposed the Iran attack. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial congresswoman from Georgia, said:

    Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war […] This is not our fight. Peace is the answer.

    Trump’s decision has wide cross-party support

    It is certainly fair to look closely at Trump’s base and explore divisions and disagreements. However, it is highly likely that Trump’s dominant personality means he will keep the vast majority of his base together.

    More revealing about US politics is the support across the aisle for his Iran policy.

    Trump’s brash manner and divisive rhetoric make it difficult for Democrats to support him in any circumstance, but the US people’s disdain for Iran appears to be much stronger.

    In 1979, Iranian revolutionaries took 52 US diplomats hostage. The image of those captive hostages blindfolded and at the mercy of Iranian radicals is burned into older Americans’ brains.

    A generation later, Iran-backed militias killed more than 600 Americans in the war in Iraq. There are other sins Iran has committed against the US, included the attempted assassination of Trump. In this context, Trump’s policy is in the US mainstream.

    Why didn’t Trump consult Congress?

    It has been the standard practice of US presidents to brief the bipartisan leadership of Congress on key national security initiatives, such as a strikes on adversaries. While not a hard-and-fast rule, the practice can produce more bipartisan support for a president’s actions that he might otherwise have. It’s not unreasonable to think senior congressional Democrats might be more openly supportive of the Iran strike if they had been consulted in this manner.

    However, Trump and his administration did not do this, for a reason. There is little value in open bipartisanship in America today. Even though both parties are very close on Iran policy, neither wants that to be seen in public as cooperating across the aisle. Each party would much rather make the case to its base that it represents their interests and is not willing to compromise with the other party. Support from Democrats does not strengthen Trump, as his base is highly suspicious of the opposition party.

    The reverse is true for elected Democrats, including those in leadership. They will be more vulnerable from progressives in next year’s primary contests if they are seen as insufficiently resisting Trump. There is no Trump-like figure in their party to protect them from this base.

    In US politics today, nothing is more dangerous than agreeing with the other party. There is a premium value on publicly opposing your political adversaries, no matter what the issue. It makes for a foreign policy that appears more fractured than it actually is.

    Lester Munson receives funding from the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He is affiliated with the Republican Party.

    – ref. Trump’s decision to bomb Iran exposes fissures in US politics – https://theconversation.com/trumps-decision-to-bomb-iran-exposes-fissures-in-us-politics-259446

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University

    Katerina Elagina/Shutterstock

    One of the most sought-after items of 2025 isn’t a designer handbag or the latest tech gadget. It’s a plush elf with a snaggle-toothed grin.

    Labubu (拉布布) is a global sensation. From David Beckham and Rihanna to Dua Lipa and Blackpink’s Lisa, celebrities – and even members of the Thai royal family – have been spotted showcasing their Labubu collections.

    Created in 2015 by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung for his picture-book series The Monsters, Labubu gained mass popularity when toy company Pop Mart began releasing it as blind-box collectables in 2019. The toys are often sold in these blind-boxes, where people don’t know what make they’ve bought until after opening the box.

    The niche designer toy has since spiralled into a multi billion-dollar obsession. Plushies sell out within minutes, fans queue for hours, and rare editions like the human-sized mint-green-coloured Labubu have fetched over A$230,000 at auction.

    Labubu isn’t just a toy. It’s a glimpse of how China’s long-awaited soft power is beginning to take shape in unexpected ways.

    China’s accidental soft power icon?

    For years, the Chinese government has tried to cultivate a positive image abroad through the Belt and Road Initiative, introducing visa-free entry to boost tourism, and promoting homegrown brands.

    None of these efforts have matched the spontaneous global appeal of this small plush creature. Unlike Japan’s government-funded “Cool Japan” initiative launched in 2010, or South Korea’s highly coordinated export of creative industries, Labubu succeeded without central planning. It went viral organically: fanned by fandoms, fuelled by TikTok and amplified by celebrity endorsements.

    Now, China is starting to look “cool” to the outside world.

    Pop Mart’s blind-box sales model taps into the same reward mechanisms as online gaming. More than buying a toy, it’s about the thrill of unboxing the rarest edition, the social status of ownership, and the resale value of a seemingly childish product. This cultural product is emotionally charged and economically strategic.

    Labubu uses ‘blind boxes’ – where buyers don’t know what model they’ll get – to emotionally hook collectors.
    Tatiana Diuvbanova/Shutterstock

    For China, Labubu represents an unintentional yet potent form of soft power: a quirky figure that makes the country feel playful, creative and emotionally accessible.

    In an era when global perceptions of China are often shaped by geopolitics, surveillance, and authoritarianism, Labubu seems to offer something different – something disarming.

    How Japan and Korea use cultural exports

    Japan, long celebrated for its exports of anime, fashion, and food culture, launched its “Cool Japan” strategy in 2010 to formalise and promote its creative industries abroad.

    The initiative helped amplify global interest in sectors such as anime and cuisine but it often struggled with bureaucratic inefficiency, market misjudgements and unclear performance metrics.

    Many of the country’s cultural successes – from Pokémon and Studio Ghibli to ramen and izakaya – were largely driven by market forces and fan communities, rather than by the government.

    South Korea provides a more recent, effective model. The Korean Wave, or hallyu, has been heavily supported by state investment and infrastructure.

    From the film Parasite to global icons such as K-Pop band BTS, South Korea’s cultural output has earned international acclaim and helped rebrand the nation on the world stage.

    Importantly, it was a case of soft power being harnessed intentionally and strategically, with entertainment at the forefront of foreign policy.

    Labubu represents a third model: accidental soft power born from a commercial ecosystem in China increasingly focused on intellectual property (IP), lifestyle branding and consumer-driven trends.

    The emotional politics of toys

    Beyond its political implications, the Labubu craze reflects wider shifts in global consumer culture. Today’s toy market is no longer just for children.

    The adult “kidult” sector, driven by nostalgia, comfort-seeking, and collectability, is rising.

    The frenzy over Labubu is part of this trend, where millennials and Gen Z buyers invest in emotionally charged objects as expressions of identity, status and belonging.

    The popularity of labubu has seen long lines at PopMart shops around the world, like this one in South Jakarta.
    petanicupu/Shutterstock

    At the same time, Labubu represents a growing intersection between play and finance. The resale market treats plushies like speculative assets. Their scarcity creates value; their emotional resonance creates demand.

    It’s capitalism with a fuzzy face.

    Not everything is cuddly. In cities like London or Seoul, Pop Mart was forced to suspend sales after scuffles broke out among fans competing to buy the toys. And a surge in global counterfeits has raised growing concerns over IP protection and consumer trust.

    The rise of China’s soft power

    Labubu may look like a mischievous little elf, but it carries serious cultural weight.

    It reflects a China that is no longer just a producer of goods, but a producer of desire.

    It’s tempting to see Labubu as a fad like fidget spinners, Beanie Babies, or Tamagotchis. But it signals something deeper: a shift in how Chinese cultural products can evoke emotion, status and aspiration on a global scale.

    This tiny plush toy took nearly a decade to become a global sensation. China’s hopes of fully realising its soft power potential may take even longer. But if Labubu is any indication, the way forward may depend less on state-led campaigns and more on organic, bottom-up cultural momentum.

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    – ref. Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power – https://theconversation.com/labubu-plushies-arent-just-toys-theyre-a-brand-new-frontier-for-chinese-soft-power-259146

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University

    Katerina Elagina/Shutterstock

    One of the most sought-after items of 2025 isn’t a designer handbag or the latest tech gadget. It’s a plush elf with a snaggle-toothed grin.

    Labubu (拉布布) is a global sensation. From David Beckham and Rihanna to Dua Lipa and Blackpink’s Lisa, celebrities – and even members of the Thai royal family – have been spotted showcasing their Labubu collections.

    Created in 2015 by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung for his picture-book series The Monsters, Labubu gained mass popularity when toy company Pop Mart began releasing it as blind-box collectables in 2019. The toys are often sold in these blind-boxes, where people don’t know what make they’ve bought until after opening the box.

    The niche designer toy has since spiralled into a multi billion-dollar obsession. Plushies sell out within minutes, fans queue for hours, and rare editions like the human-sized mint-green-coloured Labubu have fetched over A$230,000 at auction.

    Labubu isn’t just a toy. It’s a glimpse of how China’s long-awaited soft power is beginning to take shape in unexpected ways.

    China’s accidental soft power icon?

    For years, the Chinese government has tried to cultivate a positive image abroad through the Belt and Road Initiative, introducing visa-free entry to boost tourism, and promoting homegrown brands.

    None of these efforts have matched the spontaneous global appeal of this small plush creature. Unlike Japan’s government-funded “Cool Japan” initiative launched in 2010, or South Korea’s highly coordinated export of creative industries, Labubu succeeded without central planning. It went viral organically: fanned by fandoms, fuelled by TikTok and amplified by celebrity endorsements.

    Now, China is starting to look “cool” to the outside world.

    Pop Mart’s blind-box sales model taps into the same reward mechanisms as online gaming. More than buying a toy, it’s about the thrill of unboxing the rarest edition, the social status of ownership, and the resale value of a seemingly childish product. This cultural product is emotionally charged and economically strategic.

    Labubu uses ‘blind boxes’ – where buyers don’t know what model they’ll get – to emotionally hook collectors.
    Tatiana Diuvbanova/Shutterstock

    For China, Labubu represents an unintentional yet potent form of soft power: a quirky figure that makes the country feel playful, creative and emotionally accessible.

    In an era when global perceptions of China are often shaped by geopolitics, surveillance, and authoritarianism, Labubu seems to offer something different – something disarming.

    How Japan and Korea use cultural exports

    Japan, long celebrated for its exports of anime, fashion, and food culture, launched its “Cool Japan” strategy in 2010 to formalise and promote its creative industries abroad.

    The initiative helped amplify global interest in sectors such as anime and cuisine but it often struggled with bureaucratic inefficiency, market misjudgements and unclear performance metrics.

    Many of the country’s cultural successes – from Pokémon and Studio Ghibli to ramen and izakaya – were largely driven by market forces and fan communities, rather than by the government.

    South Korea provides a more recent, effective model. The Korean Wave, or hallyu, has been heavily supported by state investment and infrastructure.

    From the film Parasite to global icons such as K-Pop band BTS, South Korea’s cultural output has earned international acclaim and helped rebrand the nation on the world stage.

    Importantly, it was a case of soft power being harnessed intentionally and strategically, with entertainment at the forefront of foreign policy.

    Labubu represents a third model: accidental soft power born from a commercial ecosystem in China increasingly focused on intellectual property (IP), lifestyle branding and consumer-driven trends.

    The emotional politics of toys

    Beyond its political implications, the Labubu craze reflects wider shifts in global consumer culture. Today’s toy market is no longer just for children.

    The adult “kidult” sector, driven by nostalgia, comfort-seeking, and collectability, is rising.

    The frenzy over Labubu is part of this trend, where millennials and Gen Z buyers invest in emotionally charged objects as expressions of identity, status and belonging.

    The popularity of labubu has seen long lines at PopMart shops around the world, like this one in South Jakarta.
    petanicupu/Shutterstock

    At the same time, Labubu represents a growing intersection between play and finance. The resale market treats plushies like speculative assets. Their scarcity creates value; their emotional resonance creates demand.

    It’s capitalism with a fuzzy face.

    Not everything is cuddly. In cities like London or Seoul, Pop Mart was forced to suspend sales after scuffles broke out among fans competing to buy the toys. And a surge in global counterfeits has raised growing concerns over IP protection and consumer trust.

    The rise of China’s soft power

    Labubu may look like a mischievous little elf, but it carries serious cultural weight.

    It reflects a China that is no longer just a producer of goods, but a producer of desire.

    It’s tempting to see Labubu as a fad like fidget spinners, Beanie Babies, or Tamagotchis. But it signals something deeper: a shift in how Chinese cultural products can evoke emotion, status and aspiration on a global scale.

    This tiny plush toy took nearly a decade to become a global sensation. China’s hopes of fully realising its soft power potential may take even longer. But if Labubu is any indication, the way forward may depend less on state-led campaigns and more on organic, bottom-up cultural momentum.

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    – ref. Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power – https://theconversation.com/labubu-plushies-arent-just-toys-theyre-a-brand-new-frontier-for-chinese-soft-power-259146

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

    Unexpected severe turbulence injured crew and passengers on a Qantas Boeing 737 during descent at Brisbane on May 4 2024. The subsequent Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigation suggested the severity of the turbulence caught the captain by surprise.

    This is not an isolated event. Thunderstorms featuring severe wind gusts such as violent updrafts and downbursts are hazardous to aircraft. Downbursts in particular have been known to cause many serious accidents.

    Our new research suggests global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of wind gusts from thunderstorm “downbursts”, with serious consequences for air travel.

    We used machine learning techniques to identify the climate drivers causing more thunderstorm downbursts. Increased heat and moisture over eastern Australia turned out to be the key ingredients.

    The findings suggest air safety authorities and airlines in eastern Australia must be more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.

    The weather radar system on a 737 jet plane can detect a microburst just before it causes heavy turbulence.
    Qantas, annotated by the ATSB

    Warm, moist air spells trouble for planes

    Global warming increases the amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere. That’s because 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour.

    The extra moisture typically comes from adjacent warmer seas. It evaporates from the surface of the ocean and feeds clouds.

    Increased heat and water vapour fuels stronger thunderstorms. So climate change is expected to increase thunderstorm activity over eastern Australia

    For aircraft, the main problem with thunderstorms is the risk of hazardous, rapid changes in wind strength and direction at low levels.

    Small yet powerful

    Small downbursts, several kilometres wide, are especially dangerous. These “microbursts” can cause abrupt changes in wind gust speed and direction, creating turbulence that suddenly moves the plane in all directions, both horizontally and vertically.

    Microburst wind gusts can be extremely strong. Brisbane airport recorded a microburst wind gust at 157km per hour in November 2016. Three planes on the tarmac were extensively damaged.

    On descent or ascent, aircraft encountering microbursts can experience sudden, unexpected losses or gains in altitude. This has caused numerous aircraft accidents in the past. Microbursts will become increasingly problematic in a warming climate.

    Delta Flight 191 is the most famous aviation accident caused by a microburst | Smithsonian Channel Aviation Nation

    Microburst analysis and prediction

    Microbursts are very difficult to predict, because they are so small. So we used machine learning to identify the environmental factors most conducive to the formation of microbursts and associated severe wind gusts.

    We accessed observational data from the Bureau of Meteorology’s extensive archives. Then we applied eight different machine learning techniques to find the one that worked best.

    Machine learning is a field of study in artificial intelligence using algorithms and statistical models to enable computers to learn from data without explicit programming. It enables systems to identify patterns, make predictions and improve performance over time as they take in more information.

    We found atmospheric conditions in eastern Australia are increasingly favouring the development of stronger, more frequent thunderstorm microbursts.

    We investigated a microburst outbreak from a storm front in 2018. It produced severe surface wind gusts at six regional airports in New South Wales: Bourke, Walgett, Coonamble, Moree, Narrabri and Gunnedah.

    Regional airports in Australia and around the world often use small aircraft. Small planes with 4–50 passenger seats are more vulnerable to the strong, even extreme, wind gusts spawned by thunderstorm microbursts.

    Widespread consequences

    Our extensive regional case study identified the weather patterns that create severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia during the warmer months.

    High cloud water content creates a [downward force] [https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11215] in the cloud. This force induces a descending air current. When the heavier air reaches the ground, wind gusts spray out in multiple directions.

    A small yet powerful downburst can deflect a plane from it’s intended path of descent, pushing it down towards the ground.
    Mehmood, K., et al (2023) Fluids., CC BY

    These wind gusts endanger aircraft during takeoff and landing, because rapid wind shifts from tail winds to head winds can cause the aircraft to dangerously gain or lose altitude.

    Our analysis highlights the elevated aviation risks of increased atmospheric turbulence from thunderstorm microbursts across eastern Australia.

    Smaller aircraft at inland regional airports in southeastern Australia are especially vulnerable. But these sudden microburst-generated wind gusts will require monitoring by major east coast airports, such as Sydney and Brisbane.

    Beware of heightened microburst activity

    Flying has long been recognised as a very safe mode of travel, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per million flights.

    However, passenger numbers worldwide have increased dramatically, implying even a small risk increase could affect a large number of travellers.

    Previous research into climate-related risks to air travel has tended to focus on high-altitude cruising dangers, such as clear air turbulence and jet stream instability. In contrast, there has been less emphasis on dangers during low-level ascent and descent.

    Our research is among the first to detail the heightened climate risk to airlines from thunderstorm microbursts, especially during takeoff and landing. Airlines and air safety authorities should anticipate more strong microbursts. More frequent wind gust turbulence from microbursts is to be expected over eastern Australia, in our ongoing warming climate.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety – https://theconversation.com/freak-wind-gusts-made-worse-by-climate-change-threaten-airline-passenger-safety-258823

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

    Unexpected severe turbulence injured crew and passengers on a Qantas Boeing 737 during descent at Brisbane on May 4 2024. The subsequent Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigation suggested the severity of the turbulence caught the captain by surprise.

    This is not an isolated event. Thunderstorms featuring severe wind gusts such as violent updrafts and downbursts are hazardous to aircraft. Downbursts in particular have been known to cause many serious accidents.

    Our new research suggests global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of wind gusts from thunderstorm “downbursts”, with serious consequences for air travel.

    We used machine learning techniques to identify the climate drivers causing more thunderstorm downbursts. Increased heat and moisture over eastern Australia turned out to be the key ingredients.

    The findings suggest air safety authorities and airlines in eastern Australia must be more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.

    The weather radar system on a 737 jet plane can detect a microburst just before it causes heavy turbulence.
    Qantas, annotated by the ATSB

    Warm, moist air spells trouble for planes

    Global warming increases the amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere. That’s because 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour.

    The extra moisture typically comes from adjacent warmer seas. It evaporates from the surface of the ocean and feeds clouds.

    Increased heat and water vapour fuels stronger thunderstorms. So climate change is expected to increase thunderstorm activity over eastern Australia

    For aircraft, the main problem with thunderstorms is the risk of hazardous, rapid changes in wind strength and direction at low levels.

    Small yet powerful

    Small downbursts, several kilometres wide, are especially dangerous. These “microbursts” can cause abrupt changes in wind gust speed and direction, creating turbulence that suddenly moves the plane in all directions, both horizontally and vertically.

    Microburst wind gusts can be extremely strong. Brisbane airport recorded a microburst wind gust at 157km per hour in November 2016. Three planes on the tarmac were extensively damaged.

    On descent or ascent, aircraft encountering microbursts can experience sudden, unexpected losses or gains in altitude. This has caused numerous aircraft accidents in the past. Microbursts will become increasingly problematic in a warming climate.

    Delta Flight 191 is the most famous aviation accident caused by a microburst | Smithsonian Channel Aviation Nation

    Microburst analysis and prediction

    Microbursts are very difficult to predict, because they are so small. So we used machine learning to identify the environmental factors most conducive to the formation of microbursts and associated severe wind gusts.

    We accessed observational data from the Bureau of Meteorology’s extensive archives. Then we applied eight different machine learning techniques to find the one that worked best.

    Machine learning is a field of study in artificial intelligence using algorithms and statistical models to enable computers to learn from data without explicit programming. It enables systems to identify patterns, make predictions and improve performance over time as they take in more information.

    We found atmospheric conditions in eastern Australia are increasingly favouring the development of stronger, more frequent thunderstorm microbursts.

    We investigated a microburst outbreak from a storm front in 2018. It produced severe surface wind gusts at six regional airports in New South Wales: Bourke, Walgett, Coonamble, Moree, Narrabri and Gunnedah.

    Regional airports in Australia and around the world often use small aircraft. Small planes with 4–50 passenger seats are more vulnerable to the strong, even extreme, wind gusts spawned by thunderstorm microbursts.

    Widespread consequences

    Our extensive regional case study identified the weather patterns that create severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia during the warmer months.

    High cloud water content creates a [downward force] [https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11215] in the cloud. This force induces a descending air current. When the heavier air reaches the ground, wind gusts spray out in multiple directions.

    A small yet powerful downburst can deflect a plane from it’s intended path of descent, pushing it down towards the ground.
    Mehmood, K., et al (2023) Fluids., CC BY

    These wind gusts endanger aircraft during takeoff and landing, because rapid wind shifts from tail winds to head winds can cause the aircraft to dangerously gain or lose altitude.

    Our analysis highlights the elevated aviation risks of increased atmospheric turbulence from thunderstorm microbursts across eastern Australia.

    Smaller aircraft at inland regional airports in southeastern Australia are especially vulnerable. But these sudden microburst-generated wind gusts will require monitoring by major east coast airports, such as Sydney and Brisbane.

    Beware of heightened microburst activity

    Flying has long been recognised as a very safe mode of travel, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per million flights.

    However, passenger numbers worldwide have increased dramatically, implying even a small risk increase could affect a large number of travellers.

    Previous research into climate-related risks to air travel has tended to focus on high-altitude cruising dangers, such as clear air turbulence and jet stream instability. In contrast, there has been less emphasis on dangers during low-level ascent and descent.

    Our research is among the first to detail the heightened climate risk to airlines from thunderstorm microbursts, especially during takeoff and landing. Airlines and air safety authorities should anticipate more strong microbursts. More frequent wind gust turbulence from microbursts is to be expected over eastern Australia, in our ongoing warming climate.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety – https://theconversation.com/freak-wind-gusts-made-worse-by-climate-change-threaten-airline-passenger-safety-258823

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Shub, Obstetrician & Maternal Fetal Medicine specialist, The University of Melbourne

    How Australian pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is set to change, with new national guidelines released today.

    Changes are expected to lead to fewer diagnoses in women at lower risk, reducing the burden of extra monitoring and intervention. Meanwhile the changes focus care and support towards women and babies who will benefit most.

    These latest recommendations form the first update in screening for gestational diabetes in more than a decade, and potentially affect more than 280,000 pregnant women a year across Australia.

    The new guidelines, which we have been involved in writing, are released today by the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society and published in the Medical Journal of Australia.

    What is gestational diabetes? Why do we test for it?

    Gestational diabetes (also known as gestational diabetes mellitus) is one of the most common medical complications of pregnancy. It affects nearly one in five pregnancies in Australia.

    It is defined by abnormally high levels of glucose (sugar) in the blood that are first picked up during pregnancy.

    Most of the time gestational diabetes goes away after the birth. But women with gestational diabetes are at least seven times more likely to develop type 2 diabetes later in life.

    In Australia, routine screening for gestational diabetes is recommended for all pregnant women. This will continue.

    That’s because treatment reduces the risk of poorer pregnancy outcomes. This includes
    babies being born very large – a condition called macrosomia – which can lead to difficult births, and a caesarean. Treatment also reduces the risk of pre-eclampsia, when women have high blood pressure and protein in their urine, and other serious pregnancy complications.

    Screening for gestational diabetes is also an opportunity to identify women who may benefit from diabetes prevention programs and ways to support their long-term health, including support with nutrition and physical activity.

    Why is testing changing?

    Most women benefit from detection and treatment. However, for some women, a diagnosis can have negative impacts. This often relates to how care is delivered.

    Women have described feeling shame and stigma after the diagnosis. Others report challenges accessing the care and support they need during pregnancy. This may include access to specialist doctors, allied health professionals and clinics. Some women have restricted their diet in an unhealthy way, without appropriate supervision by a health professional. Some have had to change their preferred maternity care provider or location of birth because their pregnancy is now considered higher risk.

    So we must diagnose the condition in women when the benefits outweigh the potential costs.

    Which pregnant women need a blood test and when? And when are other types of testing warranted?
    Elizaveta Galitckaia/Shutterstock

    When are blood sugar levels too high?

    Diagnosing gestational diabetes is based on having blood glucose levels above a certain threshold.

    However, there is no clear level above which the risk of complications starts to increase. And determining the best thresholds to identify who does, and who does not, have gestational diabetes has been subject to much research and debate.

    Globally, screening approaches and diagnostic criteria vary substantially. There are differences in who is recommended to be screened, when in pregnancy screening should occur, which tests should be used, and what the diagnostic glucose levels should be.

    So, what changes?

    The new recommendations are the result of reviewing up-to-date evidence with input from a wide range of professional and consumer groups.

    Screening will continue

    All pregnant women who don’t already have a diagnosis of pre-pregnancy diabetes, or gestational diabetes, will still be recommended screening at between 24 and 28 weeks’ gestation. They’ll still have an oral glucose tolerance test, a measure of how the body processes sugar. The test involves fasting overnight, and having a blood test in the morning before drinking a sugary drink. Then there are two more blood tests over two hours. However, fewer women will have this test twice in their pregnancy.

    Changes mean more targeted care

    The following changes mean health services should be able to reorient resources to ensure women have access to the care they need to support healthier pregnancies, including early support for women who need it most:

    • women with risk factors of existing, undiagnosed diabetes (such as a higher body-mass index or BMI, or a previous large baby) will be screened in the first trimester, with a single, non-fasting blood test (known as HbA1c)

    • fewer women will have an oral glucose tolerance test early in the pregnancy, ideally between ten and 14 weeks gestation. This early testing will be reserved for women with specific risk factors, such as gestational diabetes in a previous pregnancy, or a high level on the HbA1c test

    • women will only be diagnosed if their blood glucose level is above new, higher cut-off points for the oral glucose tolerance test, for tests conducted early or later in the pregnancy.

    Which tests do I need?

    These changes will be implemented over coming months. So women are encouraged to speak to their maternity care provider about how the changes apply to them.

    Alexis Shub is a board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society. She has received research funding from ADIPS.

    Matthew Hare has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Diabetes Australia, Australian Diabetes Society, Royal Australasian College of Physicians, Viertel Charitable Foundation and Australian government Department of Health. He has received honoraria for consultancies, steering committees and invited talks from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim and AstraZeneca. He is president and board chair of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society, and a member of the Australian Diabetes Society and Endocrine Society of Australia.

    Susan de Jersey has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Foundation, Diabetes Australia, Metro North Health. She is a member of Dietitians Australia, Australian Diabetes Educators Association, and is vice chair and board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society.

    – ref. How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you – https://theconversation.com/how-pregnant-women-are-tested-for-gestational-diabetes-is-changing-heres-what-this-means-for-you-259260

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Shub, Obstetrician & Maternal Fetal Medicine specialist, The University of Melbourne

    How Australian pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is set to change, with new national guidelines released today.

    Changes are expected to lead to fewer diagnoses in women at lower risk, reducing the burden of extra monitoring and intervention. Meanwhile the changes focus care and support towards women and babies who will benefit most.

    These latest recommendations form the first update in screening for gestational diabetes in more than a decade, and potentially affect more than 280,000 pregnant women a year across Australia.

    The new guidelines, which we have been involved in writing, are released today by the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society and published in the Medical Journal of Australia.

    What is gestational diabetes? Why do we test for it?

    Gestational diabetes (also known as gestational diabetes mellitus) is one of the most common medical complications of pregnancy. It affects nearly one in five pregnancies in Australia.

    It is defined by abnormally high levels of glucose (sugar) in the blood that are first picked up during pregnancy.

    Most of the time gestational diabetes goes away after the birth. But women with gestational diabetes are at least seven times more likely to develop type 2 diabetes later in life.

    In Australia, routine screening for gestational diabetes is recommended for all pregnant women. This will continue.

    That’s because treatment reduces the risk of poorer pregnancy outcomes. This includes
    babies being born very large – a condition called macrosomia – which can lead to difficult births, and a caesarean. Treatment also reduces the risk of pre-eclampsia, when women have high blood pressure and protein in their urine, and other serious pregnancy complications.

    Screening for gestational diabetes is also an opportunity to identify women who may benefit from diabetes prevention programs and ways to support their long-term health, including support with nutrition and physical activity.

    Why is testing changing?

    Most women benefit from detection and treatment. However, for some women, a diagnosis can have negative impacts. This often relates to how care is delivered.

    Women have described feeling shame and stigma after the diagnosis. Others report challenges accessing the care and support they need during pregnancy. This may include access to specialist doctors, allied health professionals and clinics. Some women have restricted their diet in an unhealthy way, without appropriate supervision by a health professional. Some have had to change their preferred maternity care provider or location of birth because their pregnancy is now considered higher risk.

    So we must diagnose the condition in women when the benefits outweigh the potential costs.

    Which pregnant women need a blood test and when? And when are other types of testing warranted?
    Elizaveta Galitckaia/Shutterstock

    When are blood sugar levels too high?

    Diagnosing gestational diabetes is based on having blood glucose levels above a certain threshold.

    However, there is no clear level above which the risk of complications starts to increase. And determining the best thresholds to identify who does, and who does not, have gestational diabetes has been subject to much research and debate.

    Globally, screening approaches and diagnostic criteria vary substantially. There are differences in who is recommended to be screened, when in pregnancy screening should occur, which tests should be used, and what the diagnostic glucose levels should be.

    So, what changes?

    The new recommendations are the result of reviewing up-to-date evidence with input from a wide range of professional and consumer groups.

    Screening will continue

    All pregnant women who don’t already have a diagnosis of pre-pregnancy diabetes, or gestational diabetes, will still be recommended screening at between 24 and 28 weeks’ gestation. They’ll still have an oral glucose tolerance test, a measure of how the body processes sugar. The test involves fasting overnight, and having a blood test in the morning before drinking a sugary drink. Then there are two more blood tests over two hours. However, fewer women will have this test twice in their pregnancy.

    Changes mean more targeted care

    The following changes mean health services should be able to reorient resources to ensure women have access to the care they need to support healthier pregnancies, including early support for women who need it most:

    • women with risk factors of existing, undiagnosed diabetes (such as a higher body-mass index or BMI, or a previous large baby) will be screened in the first trimester, with a single, non-fasting blood test (known as HbA1c)

    • fewer women will have an oral glucose tolerance test early in the pregnancy, ideally between ten and 14 weeks gestation. This early testing will be reserved for women with specific risk factors, such as gestational diabetes in a previous pregnancy, or a high level on the HbA1c test

    • women will only be diagnosed if their blood glucose level is above new, higher cut-off points for the oral glucose tolerance test, for tests conducted early or later in the pregnancy.

    Which tests do I need?

    These changes will be implemented over coming months. So women are encouraged to speak to their maternity care provider about how the changes apply to them.

    Alexis Shub is a board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society. She has received research funding from ADIPS.

    Matthew Hare has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Diabetes Australia, Australian Diabetes Society, Royal Australasian College of Physicians, Viertel Charitable Foundation and Australian government Department of Health. He has received honoraria for consultancies, steering committees and invited talks from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim and AstraZeneca. He is president and board chair of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society, and a member of the Australian Diabetes Society and Endocrine Society of Australia.

    Susan de Jersey has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Foundation, Diabetes Australia, Metro North Health. She is a member of Dietitians Australia, Australian Diabetes Educators Association, and is vice chair and board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society.

    – ref. How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you – https://theconversation.com/how-pregnant-women-are-tested-for-gestational-diabetes-is-changing-heres-what-this-means-for-you-259260

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick William Smith, Associate Investigator in Nutritional Science, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Shutterstock/Alesia Bierliezova

    The latest update to the New Zealand food composition database, a comprehensive collection of nutrient data collated jointly by Plant & Food Research and the Ministry of Health, brings more than just numbers: it adds insights into culturally important foods and their role in diets.

    For the first time, certain traditional foods such as rēwena (Māori bread) and ingredients such as natto, paneer, jackfruit and lentils are included. Alongside these are modern supermarket staples, including lactose-free yoghurts and dairy-free cheeses.

    As New Zealand’s population continues to diversify and people’s food choices evolve, the database is keeping pace, ensuring everyone’s plate is represented. The latest update introduces 191 new or updated food records, each with a detailed list of all nutrients, from a wide range of culturally relevant, plant-based and speciality diet foods. These include:

    • traditional Māori foods such as rēwena

    • ethnic staples, including natto, paneer, black beans

    • high-protein yoghurts, dairy-free cheeses and lactose-free options, reflecting market trends.

    New Zealanders’ changing food habits

    New Zealand’s population is becoming more ethnically diverse. The 2023 census shows nearly a third of New Zealand residents were born overseas and the population of people with Asian ethnicity is the fastest growing in the country. Our supermarkets and food services reflect these changes in their offering.

    At the same time, demand is growing for plant-based options, allergen-friendly foods and products tailored to different dietary needs. The database update captures these shifts, offering data on foods that might previously have been overlooked or underestimated.

    For example, including rēwena means nutrition professionals working with Māori communities or individuals can offer tailored advice using culturally relevant foods. Including natto or paneer gives dietitians more information to support New Zealanders of Asian or Indian heritage.

    Rēwena includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads.
    Shutterstock/EQRoy

    The newly added foods weren’t chosen at random. They reflect real changes in the way New Zealanders eat, informed by surveys that reflect the quantities of foods consumed and also how important they are for delivering essential nutrients. The additions also capture new products available in supermarkets or significant changes in recipes.

    Foods are collected from around the country to represent our geographically spread population. They are then sent for independent lab analysis to quantify their content of macro (proteins, carbohydrates, fats) and micronutrients (minerals and vitamins).

    Including new foods ensures the database stays relevant for a modern, multicultural population and provides accurate nutrition information for consumers, healthcare providers, food businesses and researchers. This facilitates future national surveys to more accurately capture the diversity of New Zealand diets and their implications for population nutrition.

    Where these new foods sit in a healthy diet

    With the addition of 74 new food components, including detailed profiles of fatty acids and a new method for measuring dietary fibre, the database doesn’t just tell us what is in our food, but also how these foods contribute to nutrition.

    Many of the newly included foods are rich in protein, dietary fibre or plant-based nutrients. This is true for rēwena, which includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads. Black beans and lentils are affordable sources of protein and iron, while jackfruit offers a low-fat, meat-like texture for vegetarian meals.

    The database is reviewed and updated every two years to reflect what people are actually eating. With 2,857 foods and 434 nutrient components now in the system, it offers an unparalleled window into New Zealand’s food supply and provides information to support national nutrition surveys and dietary intake studies.

    The data also supports educational resources, such as those produced by organisations that encourage New Zealanders to eat fruits and vegetables.

    The food composition database is New Zealand’s most comprehensive source of high-quality nutrient data. It is used by researchers, the food industry, public health agencies and regulators to develop and reformulate products, create accurate nutrition labels, model dietary trends and monitor how changing food habits affect nutrition.

    Nick William Smith works for Plant & Food Research.

    Carolyn Elizabeth Lister does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database – https://theconversation.com/nzs-changing-diet-maori-bread-and-jackfruit-join-other-new-foods-in-the-countrys-nutritional-database-257791

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick William Smith, Associate Investigator in Nutritional Science, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Shutterstock/Alesia Bierliezova

    The latest update to the New Zealand food composition database, a comprehensive collection of nutrient data collated jointly by Plant & Food Research and the Ministry of Health, brings more than just numbers: it adds insights into culturally important foods and their role in diets.

    For the first time, certain traditional foods such as rēwena (Māori bread) and ingredients such as natto, paneer, jackfruit and lentils are included. Alongside these are modern supermarket staples, including lactose-free yoghurts and dairy-free cheeses.

    As New Zealand’s population continues to diversify and people’s food choices evolve, the database is keeping pace, ensuring everyone’s plate is represented. The latest update introduces 191 new or updated food records, each with a detailed list of all nutrients, from a wide range of culturally relevant, plant-based and speciality diet foods. These include:

    • traditional Māori foods such as rēwena

    • ethnic staples, including natto, paneer, black beans

    • high-protein yoghurts, dairy-free cheeses and lactose-free options, reflecting market trends.

    New Zealanders’ changing food habits

    New Zealand’s population is becoming more ethnically diverse. The 2023 census shows nearly a third of New Zealand residents were born overseas and the population of people with Asian ethnicity is the fastest growing in the country. Our supermarkets and food services reflect these changes in their offering.

    At the same time, demand is growing for plant-based options, allergen-friendly foods and products tailored to different dietary needs. The database update captures these shifts, offering data on foods that might previously have been overlooked or underestimated.

    For example, including rēwena means nutrition professionals working with Māori communities or individuals can offer tailored advice using culturally relevant foods. Including natto or paneer gives dietitians more information to support New Zealanders of Asian or Indian heritage.

    Rēwena includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads.
    Shutterstock/EQRoy

    The newly added foods weren’t chosen at random. They reflect real changes in the way New Zealanders eat, informed by surveys that reflect the quantities of foods consumed and also how important they are for delivering essential nutrients. The additions also capture new products available in supermarkets or significant changes in recipes.

    Foods are collected from around the country to represent our geographically spread population. They are then sent for independent lab analysis to quantify their content of macro (proteins, carbohydrates, fats) and micronutrients (minerals and vitamins).

    Including new foods ensures the database stays relevant for a modern, multicultural population and provides accurate nutrition information for consumers, healthcare providers, food businesses and researchers. This facilitates future national surveys to more accurately capture the diversity of New Zealand diets and their implications for population nutrition.

    Where these new foods sit in a healthy diet

    With the addition of 74 new food components, including detailed profiles of fatty acids and a new method for measuring dietary fibre, the database doesn’t just tell us what is in our food, but also how these foods contribute to nutrition.

    Many of the newly included foods are rich in protein, dietary fibre or plant-based nutrients. This is true for rēwena, which includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads. Black beans and lentils are affordable sources of protein and iron, while jackfruit offers a low-fat, meat-like texture for vegetarian meals.

    The database is reviewed and updated every two years to reflect what people are actually eating. With 2,857 foods and 434 nutrient components now in the system, it offers an unparalleled window into New Zealand’s food supply and provides information to support national nutrition surveys and dietary intake studies.

    The data also supports educational resources, such as those produced by organisations that encourage New Zealanders to eat fruits and vegetables.

    The food composition database is New Zealand’s most comprehensive source of high-quality nutrient data. It is used by researchers, the food industry, public health agencies and regulators to develop and reformulate products, create accurate nutrition labels, model dietary trends and monitor how changing food habits affect nutrition.

    Nick William Smith works for Plant & Food Research.

    Carolyn Elizabeth Lister does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database – https://theconversation.com/nzs-changing-diet-maori-bread-and-jackfruit-join-other-new-foods-in-the-countrys-nutritional-database-257791

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –