NewzIntel.com

Category: Asia Pacific

  • MIL-OSI China: China eyes to further traditional friendship, cooperation with Thailand: Premier Li

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    China eyes to further traditional friendship, cooperation with Thailand: Premier Li

    VIENTIANE, Oct. 10 — Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is ready to work with Thailand to take the next year’s 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties as an opportunity to further carry forward traditional friendship, strengthen strategic communication, promote cooperation and push forward the building of a China-Thailand community with a shared future.

    Li made the remarks during his meeting with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on the sidelines of the leaders’ meetings on East Asia cooperation held in Vientiane.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AI affects everyone – including Indigenous people. It’s time we have a say in how it’s built

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tamika Worrell, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Critical Indigenous Studies, Macquarie University

    Since artificial intelligence (AI) became mainstream over the past two years, many of the risks it poses have been widely documented. As well as fuelling deep fake porn, threatening personal privacy and accelerating the climate crisis, some people believe the emerging technology could even lead to human extinction.

    But some risks of AI are still poorly understood. These include the very particular risks to Indigenous knowledges and communities.

    There’s a simple reason for this: the AI industry and governments have largely ignored Indigenous people in the development and regulation of AI technologies. Put differently, the world of AI is too white.

    AI developers and governments need to urgently fix this if they are serious about ensuring everybody shares the benefits of AI. As Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people like to say, “nothing about us, without us”.

    Indigenous concerns

    Indigenous peoples around the world are not ignoring AI. They are having conversations, conducting research and sharing their concerns about the current trajectory of it and related technologies.

    A well-documented problem is the theft of cultural intellectual property. For example, users of AI image generation programs such as DeepAI can artificially generate artworks in mere seconds which mimic Indigenous styles and stories of art.

    This demonstrates how easy it is for someone using AI to misappropriate cultural knowledges. These generations are taken from large data sets of publicly available imagery to create something new. But they miss the storying and cultural knowledge present in our art practices.

    AI technologies also fuel the spread of misinformation about Indigenous people.

    The internet is already riddled with misinformation about Indigenous people. The long-running Creative Spirits website, which is maintained by a non-Indigenous person, is a prominent example.

    Generative AI systems are likely to make this problem worse. They often conflate us with other global Indigenous peoples around the world. They also draw on inappropriate sources, including Creative Spirits.

    During last year’s Voice to Parliament referendum in Australia, “no” campaigners also used AI-generated images depicting Indigenous people. This demonstrates the role of AI in political contexts and the harm it can cause to us.

    Another problem is the lack of understanding of AI among Indigenous people. Some 40% of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in Australia don’t know what generative AI is. This reflects an urgent need to provide relevant information and training to Indigenous communities on the use of the technology.

    There is also concern about the use of AI in classroom contexts and its specific impact on Indigenous students.

    Looking to the future

    Hawaiian and Samoan Scholar Jason Lewis says:

    We must think more expansively about AI and all the other computational systems in which we find ourselves increasingly enmeshed. We need to expand the operational definition of intelligence used when building these systems to include the full spectrum of behaviour we humans use to make sense of the world.

    Key to achieving this is the idea of “Indigenous data sovereignty”. This would mean Indigenous people retain sovereignty over their own data, in the sense that they own and control access to it.

    In Australia, a collective known as Maiam nayri Wingara offers important considerations and principles for data sovereignty and governance. They affirm Indigenous rights to govern and control our data ecosystems, from creation to infrastructure.

    The National Agreement on Closing the Gap also affirms the importance of Indigenous data control and access.

    This is reaffirmed at a global level as well. In 2020, a group of Indigenous scholars from around the world published a position paper laying out how Indigenous protocols can inform ethically created AI. This kind of AI would centralise the knowledges of Indigenous peoples.

    In a positive step, the Australian government’s recently proposed set of AI guardrails highlight the importance of Indigenous data sovereignty.

    For example, the guardrails include the need to ensure additional transparency and make extra considerations when it comes to using data about or owned by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, to “mitigate the perpetuation of existing social inequalities”.

    Indigenous Futurisms

    Grace Dillon, a scholar from a group of North American Indigenous people known as the Anishinaabe, first coined the term “Indigenous Futurisms”.

    Ambelin Kwaymullina, an academic and futurist practitioner from the Palyku nation in Western Australia, defines it as:

    visions of what-could-be that are informed by ancient Aboriginal cultures and by our deep understandings of oppressive systems.

    These visions, Kwaymullina writes, are “as diverse as Indigenous peoples ourselves”. They are also unified by “an understanding of reality as living, interconnected whole in which human beings are but one strand of life amongst many, and a non-linear view of time”.

    So how can AI technologies be informed by Indigenous ways of knowing?

    A first step is for industry to involve Indigenous people in creating, maintaining and evaluating the technologies – rather than asking them retrospectively to approve work already done.

    Governments need to also do more than highlight the importance of Indigenous data sovereignty in policy documents. They need to meaningfully consult with Indigenous peoples to regulate the use of these technologies. This consultation must aim to ensure ethical AI behaviour among organisations and everyday users that honours Indigenous worldviews and realities.

    AI developers and governments like to claim they are serious about ensuring AI technology benefits all of humanity. But unless they start involving Indigenous people more in developing and regulating the technology, their claims ring hollow.

    Tamika Worrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI affects everyone – including Indigenous people. It’s time we have a say in how it’s built – https://theconversation.com/ai-affects-everyone-including-indigenous-people-its-time-we-have-a-say-in-how-its-built-239605

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Violence at all levels’: UN report into the abuse of women and girls in sport is a wake-up call for Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor (Practice), Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, Monash University

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    This week the United Nations (UN) Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls presented a report detailing the violence experienced by women and girls in sport globally.

    The report provides a global snapshot of the abuse women athletes experience, who is most likely to perpetrate the violence, and makes recommendations on what should been done to promote safety of women and girls.

    Off the back of the Paris Olympic and Paralympic games, where Australia cheered on the record-breaking success of women athletes, the report should be a wake-up call for Australian sports and clubs.

    Abuse of women and girls in sport

    Drawing on more than 100 submissions and consultations with 50 people, the report finds:

    Women and girls in sport face widespread, overlapping and grave forms and manifestations of violence at all levels.

    These abusive behaviours include coercive control, physical violence, corporal punishment, verbal abuse, social exclusion, bullying and identity abuse.

    The impacts of this violence are wide-ranging: physical injuries, insomnia, fear and anxiety, reduced self-confidence, substance misuse, eating disorders, self harm, and decline in athletic performance and participation.

    These impacts can extend well beyond the athlete’s involvement in their sport.

    Women and girls also experience economic violence in sport. For example, when women athletes do not have control over their earnings, or when they are coerced into signing exploitative contracts.

    The report notes women athletes also experience heightened rates of abusive and harassing behaviours in online settings. This includes sexual harassment and threats, racism, ridicule, body shaming, sexualised comments, stalking, doxing and revenge porn.

    Perpetrators are wide-ranging. They include coaches, managers, spectators, teachers, peers, sports lawyers, referees and medical staff.

    The report describes sexual harassment and abuse as “rampant” and acknowledges the high rate of sexual violence, in particular with relationships between coaches and athletes.

    This includes grooming of younger athletes, where power and control dynamics, combined with an abuse of trust between an adult and child athlete, provide the conditions for sexual abuse to proliferate.

    It follows a 2023 report from the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and UN Women, which estimates 21% of girls worldwide have experienced at least one form of sexual abuse as a child in sport.

    Is this a problem in Australia?

    Australians often pride themselves on how sports bring the nation, communities and families together but we too have a wide-reaching problem in this area.

    In 2021, a review of Swimming Australia found women athletes and coaches had experienced physical and mental abuse while the “Change the Routine” review of Gymnastics Australia revealed child abuse and neglect, misconduct, bullying, abuse, sexual harassment and assault towards gymnasts.

    More recently, a review by Sports Integrity Australia into Australian volleyball, which revealed systemic verbal and physical abuse of athletes, prompted a formal apology to past athletes.

    And a 2024 Deakin University study showed 87% of Australian sportswomen had experienced online harm within the past year.

    A lack of accountability and consequence

    In the traditionally male-dominated culture of sport, abusers have often gone unsanctioned, while those who experience abuse often leave their sport early and with significant consequences to their careers, financial stability, and mental and physical wellbeing.

    There are examples where abuse has been minimised or ignored by those in leadership to protect the reputation of the team or the sporting code, and where coaches have been able to move between teams without consequence.

    Take, for example, the sexual abuse of young female gymnasts by United States coach Larry Nassar.

    The first complaint against Nassar was made in 1997. Despite this, and the numerous other complaints which followed, Nassar remained in his coaching position with USA Gymnastics and Michigan State University until 2015. In December 2017 he was convicted of numerous counts of sexual abuse of minors.

    Outcomes of investigations by sporting bodies often remain confidential. For example, in 2017 the Fremantle Dockers and the AFL were criticised for their use of a “confidentiality agreement” in settling a sexual harassment matter.

    This impunity demonstrates a significant lack of accountability.

    The barriers to reporting abuse in sport

    There are significant barriers to reporting.

    Women elite athletes may fear losing their funding and sponsorship deals if they report abuse.

    In Australia, the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse heard child athletes are most at risk of experiencing abuse by a person of authority (such as a coach) when they are about to achieve their best performance.

    As the UN Report states, it is at this time that “there is very little to gain by revealing the abuse and too much to lose”.

    This must change.

    When sporting codes put a desire to win above safeguarding and accountability, the clear message sent to victims is that violence is excusable, and that sporting heroes are immune to the consequences of their abusive actions.

    Raising awareness around early identification of abusive behaviours is key.

    The UN report reveals athletes often feel uncertain and uncomfortable in identifying early forms of abusive behaviours and lack information on what supports are available to them when they do.

    Ensuring a suite of reporting pathways is also critical. There is no one-size-fits-all model.

    Why Australia should take the lead

    Participating in sport has significant benefits. But sport settings must be safe for all.

    Many sporting organisations and clubs have recognised the problem of abuse of women and girls in sport, rolling out respect and responsibility programs, sexual harassment policies, as well as clearer reporting and investigation policies.

    This is a good start but must be built on.

    Indeed, the safety of women and girls must be a key focus of the Australian High Performance “Win Well” strategy for the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

    Recent initiatives and policy changes should be monitored to examine how they work and whether they deliver safer outcomes for women and girls in sport at all levels.

    Responses to proven allegations of abuse must hold perpetrators to account. And critically, investigations must be independent, transparent and timely.

    The UN report reminds us “sports is a microcosm of society”.

    Violence against women and children in Australia has been declared a national emergency – ensuring the safety of women and girls in all sport settings is one critical component of addressing that crisis.

    Kate has received funding for family violence-related research from the Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology, Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, the Victorian, Queensland and ACT governments, the Commonwealth Department of Social Services and the Victorian Women’s Trust. This piece is written by Kate Fitz-Gibbon in her role at Monash University and is wholly independent of Kate Fitz-Gibbon’s role as Chair of Respect Victoria.

    – ref. ‘Violence at all levels’: UN report into the abuse of women and girls in sport is a wake-up call for Australia – https://theconversation.com/violence-at-all-levels-un-report-into-the-abuse-of-women-and-girls-in-sport-is-a-wake-up-call-for-australia-239085

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A patchwork of spinifex: how we returned cultural burning to the Great Sandy Desert

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Braedan Taylor, Traditional Owner; Karajarri Lands Trust Association/UWA, Indigenous Knowledge

    How can a desert burn? Australia’s vast deserts aren’t just sand dunes – they’re often dotted with flammable spinifex grass hummocks. When heavy rains fall, grass grows quickly before drying out. That’s how a desert can burn.

    When our Karajarri and Ngurrara ancestors lived nomadic lifestyles in what’s now called the Great Sandy Desert in northwestern Australia, they lit many small fires in spinifex grass as they walked. Fires were used seasonally for ceremonies, signalling to others, flushing out animals, making travel easier (spinifex is painfully sharp), cleaning campsites, and stimulating fresh vegetation growth ready for foraging or luring game when people returned a few months later. The result was a patchwork desert.

    After colonisation, this ended. Without management, the spinifex and grassy deserts began to burn in some of the largest fires in Australia.

    But now the work of caring for desert country (pirra) with fire (jungku, or warlu) has begun again. We are Karajarri and Ngurrara rangers who care for 110,000 square kilometres of the Great Sandy Desert. Our techniques have changed – we now drop incendiaries from helicopters to cover more distance – but our goals are similar. Guided by our elders, we are combining traditional knowledge with modern technologies and science to refine how we manage fire in a changing world.

    In research published today, we and our co-authors paired analysis of historic fire patterns with five years of fauna surveys. Put together, we found mature spinifex was important for creatures of the Great Sandy Desert – and that means we should burn small and often, like our ancestors.

    Fire and sand

    In the 1940s and ‘50s, the Royal Australian Air Force photographed the Great Sandy Desert from the air. These photos were taken before our people moved to settlements and pastoral stations between the 1960s and ’80s.

    That means these aerial photographs capture a time when traditional burns were still happening.

    Our ranger teams are studying these photographs to draw out the fire patterns produced by our ancestors.

    These photographs tell a story. Our ancestors burned many small areas, creating a complicated patchwork of spinifex at different stages of regrowth after fire.

    But they also left a great deal of mature spinifex – large old hummocks that hadn’t burnt for years. This patchwork of burned and unburned areas made it hard for bushfires to spread far and fast. When traditional burning practices stopped, bushfires became common.

    The knowledge contained in these old photos is very valuable. The images give us clear goals for our fire management. We combine this with guidance from elders and information on fuel loads across Country gleaned from remote sensing and weather modelling, to plan our fire management.

    We could see where our ancestors burnt (white patches) in the Karajarri Indigenous Protected Area in this aerial photo from the late 1940s.
    National Library of Australia, CC BY-NC-ND

    What does fire mean for desert creatures?

    Australian deserts are remarkably biodiverse, especially in reptiles. In a single clump of mature spinifex, you might find up to 18 different species of lizard. Then there are snakes and goannas, as well as mammals such as marsupial moles found only in the arid zone.

    Spinifex hummocks are crucial to many of these species, offering shelter, food and prey. What does fire do to spinifex-dwellers?

    On this topic, scientific knowledge is playing catchup with Indigenous traditional knowledge but we see value in using the scientific method – a universal language – to help us manage Country, and tell other people about what we are doing.

    The past few decades have been a time of major change for the Great Sandy Desert. Cultural burns stopped, and feral animals such as camels and cats grew in number. As a result, many native animals are disappearing or already gone.

    We think larger, more frequent fires play a part. Our Karajarri and Ngurrara rangers are using science to make sure our patchwork burns – known as right-way fire – are good for native animals.

    Between 2018 and 2022, we surveyed reptiles and mammals from 32 sites across the Karajarri and Warlu Jilajaa Jumu (Ngurrara) Indigenous Protected Areas in the desert. We caught almost 3,800 mammals and reptiles from 77 species. Reptiles made up the lion’s share, with 66 species. We also recorded when fire had come through, and how big the burnt patches were.

    The data showed reptile species care a lot about where they live. Some prefer recently burned areas, where the spinifex is gone or still very small. Others like old spinifex, huge hummocks going unburned for years. And others still liked mid-sized spinifex.

    We found mammals were rare in recently burned areas and more common in mature spinifex. We also found more mammal diversity in areas with fine-scale patchworks of fires.

    This shows we must keep our fires small, burning different areas at different times, and protect enough mature spinifex.

    This patchwork approach will help spinifex hopping mice, desert mice, planigales, dunnarts, and dozens of small reptile species to survive. But it will also help now-rare game species, the marlu (red kangaroo in Walmajarri language) and pijarta (emu in Karajarri).

    Our research tells us returning to the traditional burning techniques of our ancestors is still the right thing to do – even though the desert has changed.

    Karajarri Rangers talk about the Pirra Junkgu-Warlu project.

    Rare finds

    Scientists have rarely surveyed the Great Sandy Desert. As a result, our surveys have turned up important findings.

    The kaluta (Dasykaluta rosamondae), for instance, is a feisty little carnivorous marsupial. We found it on the Canning Stock Route, 500km further north than the distribution known to scientists.

    Similarly, we found the threatened Dampierland sandslider (Lerista separanda), a vividly coloured skink, in the Karajarri Indigenous Protected Area, expanding its distribution 450km southeast. Karajarri people call sandsliders winkajurta, or “lice eaters”, because in the old days you could use them to hunt lice in your hair.

    Our research gives us confidence that bringing back traditional burns helps desert creatures. We want more people to know that right-way fire is part of healthy Country, including our own mob and tourists who pass through, so we can all look after the desert.

    In our work, we take our old people out onto Country to get advice on burning and their knowledge of animals. As one told us, seeing the old ways return made him “real happy [and] to come alive” – just like the desert.

    We thank Karajarri and Ngurrara Traditional Owners and acknowledge past and present elders. Thanks to the many rangers and coordinators who helped in these surveys, and our partners: Environs Kimberley, Charles Darwin University, Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, and Indigenous Desert Alliance. Special thanks to Hamsini Bijlani, our project coordinator.

    Braedan Taylor and other rangers in this project were funded by the Australian Government’s Indigenous Protected Area Program, Indigenous Ranger Program, and the National Environmental Science Program via the Threatened Species Recovery Hub; by the Western Australia State Natural Resource Management, Aboriginal Ranger Program, Lotteries West, and via in kind support from the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions; by the Indigenous Desert Alliance/10Deserts; and by the Australian Research Council.

    Jacqueline Shovellor receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

    Frankie McCarthy receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

    Sarah Legge receives funding from the Australian Research Council. The work reported here was partly funded by the National Environmental Science Program via the Threatened Species Recovery Hub.

    Thomas Narda receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

    – ref. A patchwork of spinifex: how we returned cultural burning to the Great Sandy Desert – https://theconversation.com/a-patchwork-of-spinifex-how-we-returned-cultural-burning-to-the-great-sandy-desert-240447

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Are you over 75? Here’s what you need to know about vitamin D

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elina Hypponen, Professor of Nutritional and Genetic Epidemiology, University of South Australia

    OPPO Find X5 Pro/Unsplash

    Vitamin D is essential for bone health, immune function and overall wellbeing. And it becomes even more crucial as we age.

    New guidelines from the international Endocrine Society recommend people aged 75 and over should consider taking vitamin D supplements.

    But why is vitamin D so important for older adults? And how much should they take?

    Young people get most vitamin D from the sun

    In Australia, it is possible for most people under 75 to get enough vitamin D from the sun throughout the year. For those who live in the top half of Australia – and for all of us during summer – we only need to have skin exposed to the sun for a few minutes on most days.

    The body can only produce a certain amount of vitamin D at a time. So staying in the sun any longer than needed is not going to help increase your vitamin D levels, while it will increase your risk of skin cancer.

    But it’s difficult for people aged over 75 to get enough vitamin D from a few minutes of sunshine, so the Endocrine Society recommends people get 800 IU (international units) of vitamin D a day from food or supplements.

    Why you need more as you age

    This is higher than the recommendation for younger adults, reflecting the increased needs and reduced ability of older bodies to produce and absorb vitamin D.

    Overall, older adults also tend to have less exposure to sunlight, which is the primary source of natural vitamin D production. Older adults may spend more time indoors and wear more clothing when outdoors.

    As we age, our skin also becomes less efficient at synthesising vitamin D from sunlight.

    The kidneys and the liver, which help convert vitamin D into its active form, also lose some of their efficiency with age. This makes it harder for the body to maintain adequate levels of the vitamin.

    All of this combined means older adults need more vitamin D.

    Deficiency is common in older adults

    Despite their higher needs for vitamin D, people over 75 may not get enough of it.

    Studies have shown one in five older adults in Australia have vitamin D deficiency.

    In higher-latitude parts of the world, such as the United Kingdom, almost half don’t reach sufficient levels.

    This increased risk of deficiency is partly due to lifestyle factors, such as spending less time outdoors and insufficient dietary intakes of vitamin D.

    It’s difficult to get enough vitamin D from food alone. Oily fish, eggs and some mushrooms are good sources of vitamin D, but few other foods contain much of the vitamin. While foods can be fortified with the vitamin D (margarine, some milk and cereals), these may not be readily available or be consumed in sufficient amounts to make a difference.

    In some countries such as the United States, most of the dietary vitamin D comes from fortified products. However, in Australia, dietary intakes of vitamin D are typically very low because only a few foods are fortified with it.

    Why vitamin D is so important as we age

    Vitamin D helps the body absorb calcium, which is essential for maintaining bone density and strength. As we age, our bones become more fragile, increasing the risk of fractures and conditions like osteoporosis.

    Keeping bones healthy is crucial. Studies have shown older people hospitalised with hip fractures are 3.5 times more likely to die in the next 12 months compared to people who aren’t injured.

    People over 75 often have less exposure to sunlight.
    Aila Images/Shutterstock

    Vitamin D may also help lower the risk of respiratory infections, which can be more serious in this age group.

    There is also emerging evidence for other potential benefits, including better brain health. However, this requires more research.

    According to the society’s systematic review, which summarises evidence from randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation in humans, there is moderate evidence to suggest vitamin D supplementation can lower the risk of premature death.

    The society estimates supplements can prevent six deaths per 1,000 people. When considering the uncertainty in the available evidence, the actual number could range from as many as 11 fewer deaths to no benefit at all.

    Should we get our vitamin D levels tested?

    The Endocrine Society’s guidelines suggest routine blood tests to measure vitamin D levels are not necessary for most healthy people over 75.

    There is no clear evidence that regular testing provides significant benefits, unless the person has a specific medical condition that affects vitamin D metabolism, such as kidney disease or certain bone disorders.

    Routine testing can also be expensive and inconvenient.

    In most cases, the recommended approach to over-75s is to consider a daily supplement, without the need for testing.

    You can also try to boost your vitamin D by adding fortified foods to your diet, which might lower the dose you need from supplementation.

    Even if you’re getting a few minutes of sunlight a day, a daily vitamin D is still recommended.

    Elina Hypponen receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Foundation, Medical Research Future Fund, Australian Research Council, and Arthritis Australia.

    Joshua Sutherland’s studentship is funded by the Australian Research Training Program Scholarship, and he volunteers on the board for the Australasian Association and Register of Practicing Nutritionists.

    – ref. Are you over 75? Here’s what you need to know about vitamin D – https://theconversation.com/are-you-over-75-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-vitamin-d-231820

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: It’s time to talk about how the media talks about sexual harassment

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rawan Nimri, Lecturer in Tourism and Hospitality, Griffith University

    Sexual harassment is all too common in hospitality and tourism. One Australian survey found almost half of the respondents had been sexually harassed, compared to about one in three in workplaces more generally.

    Hospitality and tourism are marked by intense and close interpersonal interactions and dismissive treatment by some customers, including verbal and physical aggression, bullying and sexual suggestions.

    Workers who are young, female, low-paid and casual are especially vulnerable.

    The scandals at the Merivale Hospitality Group and Sydney’s Swillhouse restaurant are only the most recent.

    The widely held view that “the customer is always right” gives customers power. The power imbalance is magnified where tipping makes up a substantial part of workers’ earnings.

    What newspapers report

    To examine how sexual harassment is reported, we identified about 2,000 newspaper articles across a number of countries published between 2017 and 2022 dealing with the treatment of hotel room attendants, airline cabin crew and massage therapists. We zeroed in on 273 for closer analysis.

    This was a period in which the public awareness of sexual harassment climbed with the rise of the #MeToo movement and media coverage probably peaked.

    Media coverage matters because of its effect on public opinion.

    Computer-assisted thematic analysis showed four different types of coverage, some overlapping, relating to legal matters, celebrities, power dynamics, and calls to action.

    The language used varied according to the countries in which the newspapers were located.

    In the United States and the United Kingdom, the accused were often described by their social or economic status, with cases involving famous people getting a lot of attention. In Asia and Africa, the reports focused on basic details such as the offender’s age and where they lived.

    Women infantilised

    But universally we found the terms used to describe victims were highly gendered and dated in ways that suggested subservience and undermined their professional skills. Cabin crew were called “air hostesses”. Room attendants were called “maids”.

    Framing these professionals as modern-day servants has the potential to foster and perpetuate an expectation that sexual harassment is to be expected.

    Reports involving celebrity harassers highlighted victims’ narratives with emotionally charged quotes using words such as “awful” and “terrible”. These words were perhaps intended to evoke empathy for the victims but also serve to further victimise them.

    Female aggression under-reported

    In all cases, women were heavily featured as victims but never as aggressors. It is a gender bias that does not match the established statistics, which show that almost one-quarter of aggressors are women.

    This misrepresentation creates a skewed understanding of who commits and suffers from sexual harassment. It has the potential to discourage victims of harassment by women from coming forward.

    It’s important for the tourism industry to foster secure and dignified working conditions. But it is also important that the media reflect the actual behaviour of aggressors and victims.

    Done better, reporting could help

    The media could play a crucial role in bringing about better policies and practices in these industries by emphasising the severe consequences of ignoring the problem and the benefits of taking proactive steps.

    More respectful and accurate reporting might be able to help drive lasting change, making a positive difference in the lives of the skilled workers on whom so many of us depend.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. It’s time to talk about how the media talks about sexual harassment – https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-talk-about-how-the-media-talks-about-sexual-harassment-238771

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Use of AI in property valuation is on the rise – but we need greater transparency and trust

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Cheung, Senior Lecturer, Business School, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    New Zealand’s economy has been described as a “housing market with bits tacked on”. Buying and selling property is a national sport fuelled by the rising value of homes across the country.

    But the wider public has little understanding of how those property valuations are created – despite their being a key factor in most banks’ decisions about how much they are willing to lend for a mortgage.

    Automated valuation models (AVM) – systems enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) that crunch vast datasets to produce instant property values – have done little to improve transparency in the process.

    These models started gaining traction in New Zealand in the early 2010s. The early versions used limited data sources like property sales records and council information. Today’s more advanced models include high-quality geo-spatial data from sources such as Land Information New Zealand.

    AI models have improved efficiency. But the proprietary algorithms behind those AVMs can make it difficult for homeowners and industry professionals to understand how specific values are calculated.

    In our ongoing research, we are developing a framework that evaluates these automated valuations. We have looked at how the figures should be interpreted and what factors might be missed by the AI models.

    In a property market as geographically and culturally varied as New Zealand’s, these points are not only relevant — they are critical. The rapid integration of AI into property valuation is no longer just about innovation and speed. It is about trust, transparency and a robust framework for accountability.

    AI valuations are a black box

    In New Zealand, property valuation has traditionally been a labour-intensive process. Valuers would usually inspect properties, make market comparisons and apply their expert judgement to arrive at a final value estimate.

    But this approach is slow, expensive and prone to human error. As demand for more efficient property valuations increased, the use of AI brought in much-needed change.

    But the rise of these valuations models is not without its challenges. While AI offers speed and consistency, it also comes with a critical downside: a lack of transparency.

    AVMs often operate as “black boxes”, providing little insight into the data and methodologies that drive their valuations. This raises serious concerns about the consistency, objectivity and transparency of these systems.

    What exactly the algorithm is doing when an AVM estimates a home’s value is not clear. Such opaqueness has real-world consequences, perpetuating market imbalances and inequities.

    Without a framework to monitor and correct these discrepancies, AI models risk distorting the property market further, especially in a country as diverse as New Zealand, where regional, cultural and historical factors significantly influence property values.

    Transparency and accountability

    A recent discussion forum with real estate industry insiders, law researchers and computer scientists on AI governance and property valuations highlighted the need for greater accountability when it comes to AVMs. Transparency alone is not enough. Trust must be built into the system.

    This can be achieved by requiring AI developers and users to disclose data sources, algorithms and error margins behind their valuations.

    Additionally, valuation models should incorporate a “confidence interval” – a range of prices that shows how much the estimated value might vary. This offers users a clearer understanding of the uncertainty inherent in each valuation.

    But effective AI governance in property valuation cannot be achieved in isolation. It demands collaboration between regulators, AI developers and property professionals.

    Bias correction

    New Zealand urgently needs a comprehensive evaluation framework for AVMs, one that prioritises transparency, accountability and bias correction.

    This is where our research comes in. We repeatedly resample small portions of the data to account for situations where property value data do not follow a normal distribution.

    This process generates a confidence interval showing a range of possible values around each property estimate. Users are then able to understand the variability and reliability of the AI-generated valuations, even when the data are irregular or skewed.

    Our framework goes beyond transparency. It incorporates a bias correction mechanism that detects and adjusts for constantly overvalued or undervalued estimates within AVM outputs. One example of this relates to regional disparities or undervaluation of particular property types.

    By addressing these biases, we ensure valuations that are not only accountable or auditable but also fair. The goal is to avoid the long-term market distortions that unchecked AI models could create.

    The rise of AI auditing

    But transparency alone is not enough. The auditing of AI-generated information is becoming increasingly important.

    New Zealand’s courts now require a qualified person to check information generated by AI and subsequently used in tribunal proceedings.

    In much the same way financial auditors ensure accuracy in accounting, AI auditors will play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of valuations.

    Based on earlier research, we are auditing the artificial valuation model estimates by comparing them with the market transacted prices of the same houses in the same period.

    It is not just about trusting the algorithms but trusting the people and systems behind them.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Use of AI in property valuation is on the rise – but we need greater transparency and trust – https://theconversation.com/use-of-ai-in-property-valuation-is-on-the-rise-but-we-need-greater-transparency-and-trust-240880

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI USA News: FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠ Harris Administration Celebrates International Day of the Girl and Continues Commitment to Supporting Youth in the U.S. and  Abroad

    Source: The White House

    International Day of the Girl provides an opportunity to celebrate the leadership of girls around the world and recommit to addressing the barriers that continue to limit their full participation. Today, to commemorate International Day of the Girl, First Lady Jill Biden will host the second “Girls Leading Change” event at the White House to recognize outstanding young women from across the United States who are making a difference in their communities. This year’s event will honor 10 young women leaders, selected by the White House Gender Policy Council, who are leading change and shaping a brighter future for generations to come.  

    The Biden-Harris Administration is committed to ensuring that girls can pursue their dreams free from fear, discrimination, violence, or abuse; and to advancing the safety, education, health, and wellbeing of girls everywhere. Investing in young people means investing in our future; and they should have the opportunity and resources they need to succeed.

    That’s why, since day one in office, this Administration has taken action to advance the safety, education, health, and well-being of girls, including:

    • Accelerating Learning and Improving Student Achievement. The American Rescue Plan, the largest one-time education investment in our history, included $130 billion to help schools address the impact of the pandemic on student well-being and academic achievement. To sustain these efforts, the Biden-Harris Administration increased funding and targeting of federal grants to better support academic recovery—from the Education Innovation and Research program to extended-day and afterschool programming through 21st Century Community Learning Centers. And the Administration’s Improving Student Achievement Agenda for 2024 is helping accelerate academic performance for every child in school.
    • Canceling Student Debt. President Biden and Vice President Harris vowed to fix the federal student loan program and make sure higher education is a ticket to the middle class—not a barrier to opportunity. The Biden-Harris Administration has approved nearly $170 billion in loan forgiveness for almost 5 million borrowers through more than two dozen executive actions with the goal of helping these borrowers get more breathing room in their daily lives, access economic mobility, buy homes, start businesses, and pursue their dreams.
    • Cutting Child Poverty Nearly in Half in 2021. President Biden and Vice President Harris believe that no child should grow up in poverty. Their expansion of the Child Tax Credit helped cut child poverty nearly in half in 2021 to a record low of 5.2%. President Biden and Vice President Harris are fighting to restore this expansion, which would lift over a million girls out of poverty and narrow racial disparities. The Biden-Harris Administration has also lifted hundreds of thousands of girls out of poverty by updating the Thrifty Food Plan and creating SunBucks, a new program that helps low-income families afford groceries over the summer when they don’t have access to school meals.
    • Supporting Youth Mental Health. President Biden and Vice President Harris believe that health care is a right, not a privilege, and that mental health care is health care—period. That’s why they invested almost $1.5 billion to strengthen the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline and launched the National Mental Health Strategy, with ongoing investments to strengthen the mental health workforce, ensure parity for mental health and substance use care, connect Americans to care, and better protect youth from the harms of social media. The Biden-Harris Administration is also delivering the largest investments in school-based mental health services ever, bringing 14,000 new mental health professionals into schools across the country and making it easier for schools to leverage Medicaid to deliver care.
       
    • Preventing Gun Violence, Including Domestic Violence with Firearms. Gun violence is the leading killer of children and teenagers in the United States. President Biden and Vice President Harris have taken historic executive action to reduce gun violence and violent crime. In 2022, President Biden signed into law the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA), the most significant new gun safety legislation in nearly 30 years. The intersection between guns and domestic violence can be especially deadly, and BSCA expanded background checks to keep guns out of the hands of more domestic abusers, narrowed the “boyfriend loophole” so an individual convicted of a misdemeanor crime of domestic violence against a dating partner is prohibited from purchasing a firearm, and expanded funding for red flag laws that allow for temporary removal of firearms from an individual who is a danger to themselves or others. President Biden established the first-ever Office of Gun Violence Prevention, overseen by Vice President Harris. The Biden-Harris Administration has made historic investments in law enforcement and community-led crime prevention and intervention strategies and has announced more executive actions to reduce gun violence than any other administration. Most recently, building on life-saving actions that the Administration has already taken, President Biden signed a new Executive Order in September 2024 to improve school-based active shooter drills and combat emerging firearms threats. The President and Vice President also announced new actions to support survivors of gun violence, promote safe gun storage, fund community violence intervention, and improve the gun background check system, among other actions.
       
    • Launching the American Climate Corps. President Biden launched the American Climate Corps to give a diverse new generation of young people the tools to fight the impacts of climate change today and the skills to join the clean energy and climate-resilience workforce of tomorrow. The American Climate Corps is tackling the climate crisis, including by restoring coastal ecosystems, strengthening urban and rural agriculture, investing in clean energy and energy efficiency, improving disaster and wildfire preparedness, and more. More than 15,000 young Americans have already been put to work in high-quality, good-paying clean energy and climate resilience workforce training and service opportunities through the American Climate Corps—putting the program on track to reach President Biden’s goal of 20,000 members in the program’s first year ahead of schedule.
       
    • Providing Children with Healthier, More Sustainable Environments. The Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean School Bus Program has awarded nearly $3 billion and funded approximately 8,700 electric and low-emission school buses nationwide, protecting children from air pollution by transforming school bus fleets across America. The Biden-Harris Administration also invested $15 billion toward replacing every toxic lead pipe in the country within a decade, protecting children and schools from lead exposure that can cause irreversible harm to cognitive development and hamper children’s learning. And earlier this year, the Environmental Protection Agency provided $58 million to protect children from lead in drinking water at schools and child care facilities.
    • Fighting Online Harassment and Abuse. Online harassment and abuse is increasingly widespread in today’s digitally connected world and disproportionately affects women, girls, and LGBTQI+ individuals. President Biden established the White House Task Force to Address Online Harassment and Abuse to coordinate comprehensive actions from more than a dozen federal agencies, and his Executive Order on artificial intelligence directs federal agencies to address deepfake image-based abuse. The Department of Justice also funded the first-ever national helpline to provide 24/7 support and specialized services for victims of online harassment and abuse, including the non-consensual distribution of intimate images; raised awareness of new legal protections against the non-consensual distribution of intimate images that were included in the Violence Against Women Act Reauthorization Act of 2022; and funded a new National Resource Center on Cybercrimes Against Individuals.
    • Keeping Students Safe and Addressing Campus Sexual Assault. The Department of Education restored and strengthened vital Title IX protections against discrimination on the basis of sex for students and employees. The Department of Justice awarded more than $20 million in FY 2024 to support colleges and universities in preventing and responding to sexual assault, domestic violence, dating violence, and stalking. And the Department of Education—in collaboration with the Departments of Justice and Health and Human Services—launched a Task Force on Sexual Violence in Education that has released data on sexual violence at educational institutions and is working to improve sexual violence prevention and response on campus.
    • Supporting Vulnerable Youth. The Biden-Harris Administration has taken action to support the needs of vulnerable and underserved youth—from helping prevent youth homelessness and human trafficking to supporting employment initiatives for youth with disabilities. This includes $800 million in dedicated funding to support students experiencing homelessness through the President’s American Rescue Plan. The Department of Health and Human Services also issued landmark rules to improve the child welfare system, particularly for the most vulnerable children, and to advance the safety and wellbeing of families across the country, including for LGBTQI+ children in foster care. And the Department of Justice has funded programs to help communities develop, enhance, or expand early intervention programs and treatment services for girls who are involved in the juvenile justice system.

    The Biden-Harris Administration has also taken action to support girls around the globe by fighting to advance the human rights of women and girls and promote access to education, health, and safety, including:

    • Promoting Girls’ Education Globally. The United States is investing in girls’ education around the world, which in turn advances health and economic development. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) invested more than $2.5 billion from FY 2021-2023 to increase access to quality basic and higher education, and reached 18.7 million girls and women in 69 countries in FY23 alone to advance gender equality in and through education. The Departments of State and Labor have also supported efforts to promote girls’ education through science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education programs in Kenya and Namibia, as well as technical and vocational education training centers for adolescent girls in Ethiopia. The United States has strongly condemned the restriction of girls’ education in Afghanistan, including by restricting visas for individuals believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, repressing women and girls by limiting or prohibiting access to education.
    • Closing the Gender Digital Divide. Last year, Vice President Harris launched the Women in the Digital Economy Fund (Wi-DEF) to accelerate progress towards closing the gender digital divide. To date, Wi-DEF has raised over $80 million, including an initial $50 million commitment from USAID. Building on the success of the Fund, the Women in the Digital Economy Initiative includes commitments from governments, private sector companies, foundations, civil society, and multilateral organizations that have pledged more than $1 billion to accelerate gender digital equality. This Initiative supports girls’ access to digital learning opportunities, provides employment and educational skills, and helps fulfill the historic commitment of G20 Leaders to halve the digital gender gap by 2030. Since the launch of Wi-DEF, the United States has invested $102 million in direct and aligned commitments to closing the gender digital divide and accelerating gender digital equality.
    • Preventing and Responding to Online Harassment and Abuse Globally. To address the scourge of online harassment and abuse against girls and women, the Biden-Harris Administration launched the 15-country Global Partnership for Action on Gender-Based Online Harassment and Abuse, which has advanced international policies to address online safety and supported programs to prevent and respond to technology-facilitated gender-based violence. Since the Global Partnership was launched in 2022, the Department of State has supported projects in every region to prevent, document, and address technology-facilitated gender-based violence, cultivate safe online use, and respond to survivors’ needs. 
    • Championing Girls’ Leadership in Addressing the Climate Crisis. In 2023, Vice President Harris announced the Women in the Sustainable Economy Initiative—an over $2 billion public-private partnership to promote women’s access to jobs in the green and blue industries of the future—including by advancing girls’ access to STEM education. Through WISE, the Department of State is investing more than $12 million in programs to benefit girls, including programs that promote girls’ economic skills and opportunities in STEM and that foster girls’ roles in leading, shaping, and informing equitable and inclusive climate policies and actions.
    • Strengthening HIV Prevention Services for Girls. To address key factors that make adolescent girls and young women particularly vulnerable to HIV, the United States launched the DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored, and Safe) public-private partnership as part of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) in 2014. Announced in 2023, PEPFAR’s DREAMS NextGen program is the next phase of DREAMS that will take a more nuanced approach that is responsive to the current context within each of the 15 DREAMS countries. PEPFAR has invested more than $2 billion in comprehensive HIV prevention programming for girls through DREAMS—including $1.3 billion since the start of the Administration—and the program reaches approximately 2.5 to 3 million girls annually.
    • Increasing Efforts to End Child Marriage Globally. To address the global scourge of child, early, and forced marriage, USAID and the Department of State invested $86 million in 27 countries to support programs that prevent and respond to this harmful practice, including by equipping girls and young women with education and workforce readiness skills; providing education, health, legal, and economic support; and raising awareness. Under the leadership of the Biden-Harris Administration, the United States also made its first-ever contribution to the UNICEF-UNFPA Global Programme to End Child Marriage, which works in 12 countries in Africa and South Asia to promote the rights of adolescent girls, and is contributing more than $2 million in FY 2024 to UNFPA to help reach refugee adolescent girls and prevent child marriages in humanitarian settings.
    • Leading Programs to End Female Genital Mutilation and Cutting. To address the harmful practice of female genital mutilation and cutting (FGM/C), USAID invested in programs to address this issue in Djibouti, Egypt, Mauritania, and Nigeria. The United States is a long-standing donor to the UNICEF-UNFPA Joint Programme on the Elimination of Female Genital Mutilation, and invested $20 million from FY 2020-FY 2023 in this partnership, which has succeeded in advocating for legal and policy frameworks banning FGM/C in 14 of 17 countries and supported more than 6.3 million women and girls with FGM/C-related protection and care services.
    • Promoting Young Women’s Civic and Political Participation. The Biden-Harris Administration has advanced the political and civic participation of women and girls as a pillar of democracy promotion efforts worldwide. The Administration launched Women LEAD, a $900 million public-private partnership focused on building the pipeline of women leaders around the world, including by supporting programs to reach girls and young women. Under this umbrella, the USAID-led Advancing Women’s and Girls’ Civic and Political Leadership Initiative provides more than $25 million to identify and dismantle the individual, structural, and socio-cultural barriers to the political empowerment of women and girls in ten focus countries: Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Tanzania, Kenya, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras, Kyrgyz Republic, Yemen, and Fiji. Furthermore, the State Department is launching a new $1.25 million program in Africa that will empower and equip young women leaders to take on decision-making roles in democratic transition processes.
    • Protecting Girls in Humanitarian Emergencies. The United States government has increased its support for girls in humanitarian and fragile contexts. Since 2021, USAID has more than doubled the percentage of its humanitarian budget allocated to the protection sector, which includes child protection and gender-based violence activities serving girls. In FY 2023, USAID provided $163 million specifically towards addressing gender-based violence in humanitarian emergencies. In 2022, USAID and the Department of State launched Safe from the Start: ReVisioned, which seeks to better address the needs of girls and women from the onset of a conflict or crisis.
    • Combatting Child Trafficking. To combat child trafficking, including trafficking of girls, the Department of State has committed $37.5 million through Child Protection Compacts, building capacity in Jamaica, Peru, and Mongolia, and establishing new partnerships with Colombia, Cote d’Ivoire, and Romania. These partnerships strengthen country responses to child trafficking to more effectively prosecute and convict traffickers, provide comprehensive trauma-informed care for child victims—including girls—and prevent child trafficking in all its forms.

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    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA News: FACT SHEET: Delivering on Our Commitments, 12th U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Lao  PDR

    Source: The White House

    The Biden-Harris Administration has worked to strengthen our ties with ASEAN and deliver on our commitments to the region. Over the past three and a half years, we have pursued an unprecedented expansion in the breadth and depth of U.S.-ASEAN relations, including upgrading our relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and institutionalizing cooperation in five new areas—health, transportation, women’s empowerment, environment and climate, and energy—as well as deepening our cooperation in foreign affairs, economics, technology, and defense. To date, we have made significant progress in fulfilling 98.37 percent of our commitments in the ASEAN-U.S. Plan of Action (2022-2025) and its Annex. The United States will continue working with ASEAN, including through ASEAN-led mechanisms, to build an open, inclusive, transparent, resilient, and rules-based regional architecture in which ASEAN is its center.
     
    DELIVERING ON OUR COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

    This year, the United States and ASEAN are celebrating 47 years of U.S.-ASEAN relations. President Biden and Vice President Harris remain committed to ASEAN centrality and supporting the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, which shares fundamental principles with the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. ASEAN is at the heart of the U.S. approach to the Indo-Pacific, as reflected in numerous U.S. initiatives to promote economic prosperity and regional stability. Through the U.S.-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the United States has demonstrated that we are a reliable and enduring partner for our combined one billion people. Key U.S.-ASEAN accomplishments under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership include:

    • The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) extended the U.S.-ASEAN Regional Development Cooperation Agreement to 2029 enabling the launch of the new five-year ASEAN USAID Partnership Program in March 2024. 
    • The United States plans to conduct a second U.S.-ASEAN maritime exercise in 2025, co-hosted by Indonesia. U.S. and ASEAN Member States’ navies will exercise communication, information sharing, and the implementation of maritime security protocols in accordance with international law.
    • In August 2024, the United States and ASEAN agreed to formalize U.S.-ASEAN health cooperation, elevating our engagement to a biennial U.S.-ASEAN Health Ministers Dialogue. USAID also officially launched the U.S.-ASEAN-Airborne Infection Defense Platform to bolster the region’s tuberculosis response capacity.
    • The United States is launching a cybersecurity training program for the ASEAN Secretariat that will enhance the cybersecurity awareness, knowledge, and skills of our partners who are the backbone of ASEAN institutions.  
    • At the third U.S.-ASEAN High-Level Dialogue on Environment and Climate this year, the United States unveiled the U.S.-ASEAN Climate Solutions Hub to help ASEAN members states develop and implement their contributions under the Paris Agreement.
    • In 2023, the United States and ASEAN held the inaugural Dialogue on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities to advance human rights for persons with disabilities across Southeast Asia, including working with private sector to find ways to support accessibility across Southeast Asia.

    As a reflection of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership reaching its full potential, the United States and ASEAN celebrated the launch of the U.S.-ASEAN Center in Washington, DC in December 2023. The Center has already hosted several high-profile ASEAN-related events and is on track to become the key hub for ASEAN’s engagement with the United States.

    • In June 2024, the Center hosted the Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, for his first working visit to the United States, where he launched a speaker series.
    • In August 2024, the Center hosted an ASEAN Day celebration, showcasing a wide array of cultural activities from ASEAN Member States.
    • The Center is also partnering with the Antiquities Coalition to host a Cultural Property Agreement workshop.

    The U.S.-ASEAN Smart Cities Partnership (USASCP) is a key mechanism for our engagement on innovating sustainable cities of the future. Since it was launched in 2018, USASCP has invested more than $19 million in over 20 projects across urban sectors throughout the region. USASCP tackles the varied challenges of rapid urbanization, including accelerating climate action and promoting sustainable urban services.

    • In 2024, the USASCP Smart Cities Business Innovation Fund 2.0 will grant $3 million for net-zero urban innovation projects to strengthen private sector investment in sustainability and climate action across the ASEAN region.
    • In 2022, the Smart Cities Business Innovation Fund 1.0 granted a total of $1 million to six awardees across the region, including a solar panel recycling facility in Da Nang Vietnam and a seaweed/bioplastics manufacturer in Tangerang Indonesia.
    • The United States paired municipal water and wastewater facility operators from five cities across the United States and the ASEAN Smart Cities Network to share their expertise.

    This year marks the Young Southeast Asian Leadership Initiative’s (YSEALI) second decade of building youth leadership capabilities across Southeast Asia to promote cross-border cooperation on regional and global challenges. YSEALI’s 160,000 strong digital network and 6,000 plus alumni community is creating new opportunities for its members to shape YSEALI’s next 10 years of impact. The State Department is well on its way to doubling the number of Southeast Asian youth participating in the YSEALI Academic and Professional Fellowships by 2025, in line with the commitments laid out by President Biden and Vice President Harris during the May 2022 U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit.

    • The United States has invested over $1.8 million to empower nearly 500 young women as part of the YSEALI Women’s Leadership Academy (WLA). In celebration of the WLA’s 10th anniversary, the U.S. Mission to ASEAN granted $44,000 to alumni groups to foster collaboration and find innovative ways to close the gender leadership gap.
    • The YSEALI Seeds for the Future Program—a grant program intended to support innovative initiatives in Southeast Asia—has provided nearly $3 million for more than 500 young leaders to carry out projects that improve their communities.
    • The Department of State’s YSEALI Alumni Engagement Innovation Fund supported 16 YSEALI alumni-led public service projects in 2024. 

    ENHANCING CONNECTIVITY AND RESILIENCE

    The Biden-Harris Administration continues to build greater connectivity with ASEAN and enhancing regional resilience to bolster economic development and integration. The United States is ASEAN’s number one source of foreign direct investment, and U.S. goods and services trade totaled an estimated $500 billion in 2023. Since 2002, the United States has provided more than $14.7 billion in economic, health, and security assistance to Southeast Asian allies and partners. During that same period, the United States provided nearly $1.9 billion in humanitarian assistance, including life-saving disaster assistance, emergency food aid, and support to refugees throughout the region. As a durable and reliable partner of ASEAN, the United States supports the governments and people of Southeast Asia in enhancing the region’s connectivity and resilience. In addition to U.S. companies’ substantial investments, the United States is cooperating with the private sector to equip the region’s workforce with the skills needed to succeed in Southeast Asia’s burgeoning digital economy. Other key U.S. initiatives supporting this effort include:

    • USAID announces $2 million of new funding to support the sustainable development of critical minerals, supporting ASEAN’s goal of raising environmental, social, and governance standards for mineral sector development. 
    • Through the Japan-U.S.-Mekong Power Partnership (JUMPP), the U.S. Department of State has implemented over 60 technical assistance activities to strengthen national power sectors and regional electricity market, enhancing the clean energy export potential of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam to the ASEAN market. 
    • The U.S. Trade and Development Agency is supporting a feasibility study to develop two cross-border interconnections, further expanding our longstanding support to connect the ASEAN Power Grid.
    • USAID is expanding cooperation with the ASEAN Center for Energy to support private sector and multilateral development bank investment to operationalize regional connectivity through the ASEAN Power Grid.
    • Through the ASEAN Digital Ministers’ Meeting and Digital Senior Officials’ Meeting, we are intensifying our cooperation on trusted information and communications technology infrastructure – including undersea cables, cloud computing, and wireless networks, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, and combatting online scams.
    • The United States supported development of the ASEAN Responsible AI Roadmap and provided AI technical assistance for the Digital Economy Framework Agreement. Our collective effort ensures ASEAN can foster an inclusive environment where affirmative, safe, secure, and trustworthy AI innovation can flourish.
    • Under the U.S.-ASEAN Connect framework, the U.S. Mission to ASEAN is leveraging the U.S. government and private sector expertise to advance economic engagement, including through workshops covering topics such as best practices to strengthen cybersecurity and how to harness digital technologies.

    Over the past three and a half years, the Biden-Harris Administration has also spurred investment and economic growth through the advancement of over $1.4 billion in private sector investments in the ASEAN region. This past year alone, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has invested over $341 million in ASEAN markets. To further our cooperation and support, DFC has announced that it will open new offices in Vietnam and the Philippines to source more opportunities and further advance private sector investment. DFC’s key initiatives and investments have included:

    • Loaning up to $126 million loan to power company PT Medco Cahaya Geothermal to strengthen Indonesia’s energy security.
    • Initiating DFC’s first investment in Lao PDR with a $4 million loan portfolio guarantee to Phongsavanh Bank, which will work with Village Funds to give farmers financing to scale their businesses, increase their incomes, and improve their livelihoods.
    • Initiating DFC’s first investment in East Timor with a $3 million loan to microfinance institution Kaebauk Investimentu No Finansas, which will provide financing to small businesses, especially rural and unbanked ones.

    We look forward to continue advancing our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with ASEAN in 2025 by formulating a new plan of action to guide the next five years of our enduring partnership as we work to further the prosperity of our combined one billion people.

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    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Global goods trade on track for gradual recovery despite lingering downside risks

    Source: World Trade Organization

    In the October 2024 update of “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics,” WTO economists note that global merchandise trade turned upwards in the first half of 2024 with a 2.3% year-on-year increase, which should be followed by further moderate expansion in the rest of the year and in 2025. The rebound comes on the heels of a -1.1% slump in 2023 driven by high inflation and rising interest rates. World real GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain steady at 2.7% in 2024 and 2025. 

    Inflation by the middle of 2024 had fallen sufficiently to allow central banks to cut interest rates.  Lower inflation should raise real household incomes and boost consumer spending, while lower interest rates should raise investment spending by firms.

    Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “We are expecting a gradual recovery in global trade for 2024, but we remain vigilant of potential setbacks, particularly the potential escalation of regional conflicts like those in the Middle East. The impact could be most severe for the countries directly involved, but they may also indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes. Beyond the economic implications, we are deeply concerned about the humanitarian consequences for those affected by these conflicts.”

    “It is imperative that we continue to work collectively to ensure global economic stability and sustained growth, as these are fundamental to enhancing the welfare of people worldwide. In the past three decades since the WTO was established, per capita incomes in low- and middle-income economies have nearly tripled. We must continue our efforts to foster inclusive global trade,” DG Okonjo-Iweala said.

    Diverging monetary policies among major economies could lead to financial volatility and shifts in capital flows as central banks bring down interest rates. This might make debt servicing more challenging, particularly for poorer economies. There is also some limited upside potential to the forecast if interest rate cuts in advanced economies stimulate stronger than expected growth without reigniting inflation.

    Regional trade outlook

    “The latest forecasts for world trade in 2024 and 2025 only show modest revisions since the last Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report in April, but these projections do not capture some important changes in the regional composition of trade. Historical trade volume data have been revised substantially, including downward revisions to European exports and imports back to 2020.  There have also been notable changes in GDP forecasts by region, including a 0.4 percentage point upgrade to North America’s growth, which could influence trade flows in other regions as well,” WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa said.

    Europe is now expected to post a decline of 1.4% in export volumes in 2024; imports will meanwhile decrease by 2.3%. Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the second quarter, with manufacturing indicators hitting 12-month lows in September. European exports have been dragged down by the region’s automotive and chemicals sectors. A slump in EU exports of automotive products is worrying due to the potential impact on the sector’s extensive supply chains. Meanwhile, organic chemical exports — some associated with medicines — are returning to normal trends following a surge during the COVID-19 pandemic. EU machinery imports also plummeted, particularly from China. This trend extends beyond geopolitical tensions, affecting imports from the United States, the Republic of Korea and Japan. Meanwhile, rising imports from India and Viet Nam suggest their growing roles in global supply chains.

    Asia’s export volumes will grow faster than those of any other region this year, rising by as much as 7.4% in 2024. The region saw a strong export rebound in the first half of the year driven by key manufacturing economies such as China, Singapore and the Republic of Korea. Asian imports show divergent trends: while China’s growth remains modest, other economies such as Singapore, Malaysia, India and Viet Nam are surging. This shift suggests their emerging role as “connecting” economies, trading across geopolitical blocs, thereby potentially mitigating the risk of fragmentation.

    South America (1) is rebounding in 2024, recovering from weaknesses in both exports and imports experienced in 2023. North American trade is largely driven by the United States although Mexico stands out with stronger import growth compared to the region as a whole. Mexican imports are rebounding after a contraction in 2023, underscoring the country’s growing role as a “connecting” economy in trade.

    Africa’s export growth is in line with the global trend. It has been revised downward from the April forecast, driven by an overall revision of Africa’s trade statistics, and a greater-than-expected weakening in Europe’s imports, Africa’s main trade partner. In April, WTO economists forecasted a contraction in the CIS region’s (2) imports for 2024, but now it is projected to post 1.1% growth, driven by stronger-than-expected GDP expansion. The Middle East had a major revision in its data, explaining the discrepancy between the April forecast and the current projections.

    Merchandise exports of least-developed countries (LDCs) are projected to increase by 1.8% in 2024, marking a slowdown from the 4.6% growth recorded in 2023. Export growth is expected to pick up in 2025, reaching 3.7%. Meanwhile, LDC imports are forecast to grow 5.9% in 2024 and 5.6% in 2025, following a 4.8% decline in 2023. These projections are underpinned by GDP growth estimates for LDCs of 3.3% in 2023, 4.3% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025.

    Trade in services

    The short-term outlook for services is more positive than for goods, with 8% year-on-year growth in the US dollar value of commercial services trade recorded in the first quarter of 2024. Comprehensive services statistics for the second quarter will be released later in October, but data for available reporters through June suggest that relatively strong growth is likely to be sustained in the second quarter as well. 

    The services new export orders index rose to 51.7 in August, its highest level since July 2023. The services Purchasing Managers’ Index remained firmly in expansion territory at 52.9 as of August, although it did turn down in September.

    The full report is available here.

    Detailed quarterly and annual trade statistics can be downloaded from the WTO Stats portal. In addition, the interactive tool WTO | World Trade Statistics 2023 presents key data and trends for international trade, allowing users to view the latest trends, in terms of both value and volume, using filters to display the data by economy, region, selected grouping, product group and services sector.

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    MIL OSI Global Banks –

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Meeting of 11-12 September 2024

    Source: European Central Bank

    Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 11-12 September 2024

    10 October 2024

    1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options

    Financial market developments

    Ms Schnabel noted that since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 17-18 July 2024 there had been repeated periods of elevated market volatility, as growth concerns had become the dominant market theme. The volatility in risk asset markets had left a more persistent imprint on broader financial markets associated with shifting expectations for the policy path of the Federal Reserve System.

    The reappraisal of expectations for US monetary policy had spilled over into euro area rate expectations, supported by somewhat weaker economic data and a notable decline in headline inflation in the euro area. Overnight index swap (OIS) markets were currently pricing in a steeper and more frontloaded rate-cutting cycle than had been anticipated at the time of the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting. At the same time, survey expectations had hardly changed relative to July.

    Volatility in US equity markets had shot up to levels last seen in October 2020, following the August US non-farm payroll employment report and the unwinding of yen carry trades. Similarly, both the implied volatility in the euro area stock market and the Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress had spiked. However, the turbulence had proved short-lived, and indicators of volatility and systemic stress had come down quickly.

    The sharp swings in risk aversion among global investors had been mirrored in equity prices, with the weaker growth outlook having also been reflected in the sectoral performance of global equity markets. In both the euro area and the United States, defensive sectors had recently outperformed cyclical ones, suggesting that equity investors were positioning themselves for weaker economic growth.

    Two factors could have amplified stock market dynamics. One was that the sensitivity of US equity prices to US macroeconomic shocks can depend on prevailing valuations. Another was the greater role of speculative market instruments, including short volatility equity funds.

    The pronounced reappraisal of the expected path of US monetary policy had spilled over into rate expectations across major advanced economies, including the euro area. The euro area OIS forward curve had shifted noticeably lower compared with expectations prevailing at the time of the Governing Council’s July meeting. In contrast to market expectations, surveys had proven much more stable. The expectations reported in the most recent Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) had been unchanged versus the previous round and pointed towards a more gradual rate path.

    The dynamics of market-based and survey-based policy rate expectations over the year – as illustrated by the total rate cuts expected by the end of 2024 and the end of 2025 in the markets and in the SMA – showed that the higher volatility in market expectations relative to surveys had been a pervasive feature. Since the start of 2024 market-based expectations had oscillated around stable SMA expectations. The dominant drivers of interest rate markets in the inter-meeting period and for most of 2024 had in fact been US rather than domestic euro area factors, which could partly explain the more muted sensitivity of analysts’ expectations to recent incoming data.

    At the same time, the expected policy divergence between the euro area and the United States had changed signs, with markets currently expecting a steeper easing cycle for the Federal Reserve.

    The decline in US nominal rates across maturities since the Governing Council’s last meeting could be explained mainly by a decline in expected real rates, as shown by a breakdown of OIS rates across different maturities into inflation compensation and real rates. By contrast, the decline in euro area nominal rates had largely related to a decline in inflation compensation.

    The market’s reassessment of the outlook for inflation in the euro area and the United States had led to the one-year inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates one year ahead declining broadly in tandem on both sides of the Atlantic. The global shift in investor focus from inflation to growth concerns may have lowered investors’ required compensation for upside inflation risks. A second driver of inflation compensation had been the marked decline in energy prices since the Governing Council’s July meeting. Over the past few years the market’s near-term inflation outlook had been closely correlated with energy prices.

    Market-based inflation expectations had again been oscillating around broadly stable survey-based expectations, as shown by a comparison of the year-to-date developments in SMA expectations and market pricing for inflation rates at the 2024 and 2025 year-ends.

    The dominance of US factors in recent financial market developments and the divergence in policy rate expectations between the euro area and the United States had also been reflected in exchange rate developments. The euro had been pushed higher against the US dollar owing to the repricing of US monetary policy expectations and the deterioration in the US macroeconomic outlook. In nominal effective terms, however, the euro exchange rate had depreciated mildly, as the appreciation against the US dollar and other currencies had been more than offset by a weakening against the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

    Sovereign bond markets had once again proven resilient to the volatility in riskier asset market segments. Ten-year sovereign spreads over German Bunds had widened modestly after the turbulence but had retreated shortly afterwards. As regards corporate borrowing, the costs of rolling over euro area and US corporate debt had eased measurably across rating buckets relative to their peak.

    Finally, there had been muted take-up in the first three-month lending operation extending into the period of the new pricing for the main refinancing operations. As announced in March, the spread to the deposit facility rate would be reduced from 50 to 15 basis points as of 18 September 2024. Moreover, markets currently expected only a slow increase in take-up and no money market reaction to this adjustment.

    The global environment and economic and monetary developments in the euro area

    Mr Lane started by reviewing inflation developments in the euro area. Headline inflation had decreased to 2.2% in August (flash release), which was 0.4 percentage points lower than in July. This mainly reflected a sharp decline in energy inflation, from 1.2% in July to -3.0% in August, on account of downward base effects. Food inflation had been 2.4% in August, marginally up from 2.3% in July. Core inflation – as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) excluding energy and food – had decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% in August, as the decline in goods inflation to 0.4% had outweighed the rise in services inflation to 4.2%.

    Most measures of underlying inflation had been broadly unchanged in July. However, domestic inflation remained high, as wages were still rising at an elevated pace. But labour cost pressures were moderating, and lower profits were partially buffering the impact of higher wages on inflation. Growth in compensation per employee had fallen further, to 4.3%, in the second quarter of 2024. And despite weak productivity unit labour costs had grown less strongly, by 4.6%, after 5.2% in the first quarter. Annual growth in unit profits had continued to fall, coming in at -0.6%, after -0.2% in the first quarter and +2.5% in the last quarter of 2023. Negotiated wage growth would remain high and volatile over the remainder of the year, given the significant role of one-off payments in some countries and the staggered nature of wage adjustments. The forward-looking wage tracker also signalled that wage growth would be strong in the near term but moderate in 2025.

    Headline inflation was expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, partly because previous falls in energy prices would drop out of the annual rates. According to the latest ECB staff projections, headline inflation was expected to average 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, notably reaching 2.0% during the second half of next year. Compared with the June projections, the profile for headline inflation was unchanged. Inflation projections including owner-occupied housing costs were a helpful cross-check. However, in the September projections these did not imply any substantial difference, as inflation both in rents and in the owner-occupied housing cost index had shown a very similar profile to the overall HICP inflation projection. For core inflation, the projections for 2024 and 2025 had been revised up slightly, as services inflation had been higher than expected. Staff continued to expect a rapid decline in core inflation, from 2.9% this year to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Owing to a weaker economy and lower wage pressures, the projections now saw faster disinflation in the course of 2025, resulting in the projection for core inflation in the fourth quarter of that year being marked down from 2.2% to 2.1%.

    Turning to the global economy, Mr Lane stressed that global activity excluding the euro area remained resilient and that global trade had strengthened in the second quarter of 2024, as companies frontloaded their orders in anticipation of shipping delays ahead of the Christmas season. At the same time downside risks were rising, with indicators signalling a slowdown in manufacturing. The frontloading of trade in the first half of the year meant that trade performance in the second half could be weaker.

    The euro had been appreciating against the US dollar (+1.0%) since the July Governing Council meeting but had been broadly stable in effective terms. As for the energy markets, Brent crude oil prices had decreased by 14%, to around USD 75 per barrel, since the July meeting. European natural gas prices had increased by 16%, to stand at around €37 per megawatt-hour amid ongoing geopolitical concerns.

    Euro area real GDP had expanded by 0.2% in the second quarter of this year, after being revised down. This followed 0.3% in the first quarter and fell short of the latest staff projections for real GDP. It was important not to exaggerate the slowdown in the second quarter of 2024. This was less pronounced when excluding a small euro area economy with a large and volatile contribution from intangible investment. However, while the euro area economy was continuing to grow, the expansion was being driven not by private domestic demand, but mainly by net exports and government spending. Private domestic demand had weakened, as households were consuming less, firms had cut business investment and housing investment had dropped sharply. The euro area flash composite output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) had risen to 51.2 in August from 50.2 in July. While the services sector continued to expand, the more interest-sensitive manufacturing sector continued to contract, as it had done for most of the past two years. The flash PMI for services business activity for August had risen to 53.3, while the manufacturing output PMI remained deeply in contractionary territory at 45.7. The overall picture raised concerns: as developments were very similar for both activity and new orders, there was no indication that the manufacturing sector would recover anytime soon. Consumer confidence remained subdued and industrial production continued to face strong headwinds, with the highly interconnected industrial sector in the euro area’s largest economy suffering from a prolonged slump. On trade, it was also a concern that the improvements in the PMIs for new export orders for both services and manufacturing had again slipped in the last month or two.

    After expanding by 3.5% in 2023, global real GDP was expected to grow by 3.4% in 2024 and 2025, and 3.3% in 2026, according to the September ECB staff macroeconomic projections. Compared to the June projections, global real GDP growth had been revised up by 0.1 percentage points in each year of the projection horizon. Even though the outlook for the world economy had been upgraded slightly, there had been a downgrade in terms of the export prices of the euro area’s competitors, which was expected to fuel disinflationary pressures in the euro area, particularly in 2025.

    The euro area labour market remained resilient. The unemployment rate had been broadly unchanged in July, at 6.4%. Employment had grown by 0.2% in the second quarter. At the same time, the growth in the labour force had slowed. Recent survey indicators pointed to a further moderation in the demand for labour, with the job vacancy rate falling from 2.9% in the first quarter to 2.6% in the second quarter, close to its pre-pandemic peak of 2.4%. Early indicators of labour market dynamics suggested a further deceleration of labour market momentum in the third quarter. The employment PMI had stood at the broadly neutral level of 49.9 in August.

    In the staff projections output growth was expected to be 0.8% in 2024 and to strengthen to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Compared with the June projections, the outlook for growth had been revised down by 0.1 percentage points in each year of the projection horizon. For 2024, the downward revision reflected lower than expected GDP data and subdued short-term activity indicators. For 2025 and 2026 the downward revisions to the average annual growth rates were the result of slightly weaker contributions from net trade and domestic demand.

    Concerning fiscal policies, the euro area budget balance was projected to improve progressively, though less strongly than in the previous projection round, from -3.6% in 2023 to -3.3% in 2024, -3.2% in 2025 and -3.0% in 2026.

    Turning to monetary and financial analysis, risk-free market interest rates had decreased markedly since the last monetary policy meeting, mostly owing to a weaker outlook for global growth and reduced concerns about inflation pressures. Tensions in global markets over the summer had led to a temporary tightening of financial conditions in the riskier market segments. But in the euro area and elsewhere forward rates had fallen across maturities. Financing conditions for firms and households remained restrictive, as the past policy rate increases continued to work their way through the transmission chain. The average interest rates on new loans to firms and on new mortgages had stayed high in July, at 5.1% and 3.8% respectively. Monetary dynamics were broadly stable amid marked volatility in monthly flows, with net external assets remaining the main driver of money creation. The annual growth rate of M3 had stood at 2.3% in July, unchanged from June but up from 1.5% in May. Credit growth remained sluggish amid weak demand.

    Monetary policy considerations and policy options

    Regarding the assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, Mr Lane concluded that confidence in a timely return of inflation to target was supported by both declining uncertainty around the projections, including their stability across projection rounds, and also by inflation expectations across a range of indicators that remained aligned with a timely convergence to target. The incoming data on wages and profits had been in line with expectations. The baseline scenario foresaw a demand-led economic recovery that boosted labour productivity, allowing firms to absorb the expected growth in labour costs without denting their profitability too much. This should buffer the cost pressures stemming from higher wages, dampening price increases. Most measures of underlying inflation, including those with a high predictive content for future inflation, were stable at levels consistent with inflation returning to target in a sufficiently timely manner. While domestic inflation was still being kept elevated by pay rises, the projected slowdown in wage growth next year was expected to make a major contribution to the final phase of disinflation towards the target.

    Based on this assessment, it was now appropriate to take another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restriction. Accordingly, Mr Lane proposed lowering the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steered the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. This decision was robust across a wide range of scenarios. At a still clearly restrictive level of 3.50% for the deposit facility rate, upside shocks to inflation calling into question the timely return of inflation to target could be addressed with a slower pace of rate reductions in the coming quarters compared with the baseline rate path embedded in the projections. At the same time, compared with holding the deposit facility rate at 3.75%, this level also offered greater protection against downside risks that could lead to an undershooting of the target further out in the projection horizon, including the risks associated with an excessively slow unwinding of the rate tightening cycle.

    Looking ahead, a gradual approach to dialling back restrictiveness would be appropriate if the incoming data were in line with the baseline projection. At the same time, optionality should be retained as regards the speed of adjustment. In one direction, if the incoming data indicated a sustained acceleration in the speed of disinflation or a material shortfall in the speed of economic recovery (with its implications for medium-term inflation), a faster pace of rate adjustment could be warranted; in the other direction, if the incoming data indicated slower than expected disinflation or a faster pace of economic recovery, a slower pace of rate adjustment could be warranted. These considerations reinforced the value of a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach that maintained two-way optionality and flexibility for future rate decisions. This implied reiterating (i) the commitment to keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to target; (ii) the emphasis on a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach in setting policy; and (iii) the retention of the three-pronged reaction function, based on the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

    As announced in March, some changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy were to come into effect at the start of the next maintenance period on 18 September. The spread between the rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rate would be reduced to 15 basis points. The spread between the rate on the marginal lending facility and the rate on the main refinancing operations would remain unchanged at 25 basis points. These technical adjustments implied that the main refinancing operations and marginal lending facility rates would be reduced by 60 basis points the following week, to 3.65% and 3.90% respectively. In view of these changes, the Governing Council should emphasise in its communication that it steered the monetary policy stance by adjusting the deposit facility rate.

    2. Governing Council’s discussion and monetary policy decisions

    Economic, monetary and financial analyses

    Looking at the external environment, members took note of the assessment provided by Mr Lane. Incoming data confirmed growth in global activity had been resilient, although recent negative surprises in PMI manufacturing output indicated potential headwinds to the near-term outlook. While the services sector was growing robustly, the manufacturing sector was contracting. Goods inflation was declining sharply, in contrast to persistent services inflation. Global trade had surprised on the upside in the second quarter, likely owing to frontloaded restocking. However, it was set to decelerate again in the third quarter and then projected to recover and grow in line with global activity over the rest of the projection horizon. Euro area foreign demand followed a path similar to global trade and had been revised up for 2024 (owing mainly to strong data). Net exports had been the main demand component supporting euro area activity in the past two quarters. Looking ahead, though, foreign demand was showing signs of weakness, with falling export orders and PMIs.

    Overall, the September projections had shown a slightly improved growth outlook relative to the June projections, both globally and for the major economies, which suggested that fears of a major global slowdown might be exaggerated. US activity remained robust, despite signs of rebalancing in the labour market. The recent rise in unemployment was due primarily to an increasing labour force, driven by higher participation rates and strong immigration, rather than to weakening labour demand or increased slack. China’s growth had slowed significantly in the second quarter as the persistent downturn in the property market continued to dampen household demand. Exports remained the primary driver of growth. Falling Chinese export prices highlighted the persisting overcapacity in the construction and high-tech manufacturing sectors.

    Turning to commodities, oil prices had fallen significantly since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting. The decline reflected positive supply news, dampened risk sentiment and the slowdown in economic activity, especially in China. The futures curve suggested a downward trend for oil prices. In contrast, European gas prices had increased in the wake of geopolitical concerns and localised supply disruptions. International prices for both metal and food commodities had declined slightly. Food prices had fallen owing to favourable wheat crop conditions in Canada and the United States. In this context, it was argued that the decline in commodity prices could be interpreted as a barometer of sentiment on the strength of global activity.

    With regard to economic activity in the euro area, members concurred with the assessment presented by Mr Lane and acknowledged the weaker than expected growth outcome in the second quarter. While broad agreement was expressed with the latest macroeconomic projections, it was emphasised that incoming data implied a downward revision to the growth outlook relative to the previous projection round. Moreover, the remark was made that the private domestic economy had contributed negatively to GDP growth for the second quarter in a row and had been broadly stagnating since the middle of 2022.

    It was noted that, since the cut-off for the projections, Eurostat had revised data for the latest quarters, with notable changes to the composition of growth. Moreover, in earlier national account releases, there had already been sizeable revisions to backdata, with upward revisions to the level of activity, which had been broadly taken into account in the September projections. With respect to the latest release, the demand components for the second quarter pointed to an even less favourable contribution from consumption and investment and therefore presented a more pessimistic picture than in the September staff projections. The euro area current account surplus also suggested that domestic demand remained weak. Reference was made to potential adverse non-linear dynamics resulting from the current economic weakness, for example from weaker balance sheets of households and firms, or originating in the labour market, as in some countries large firms had recently moved to lay off staff.

    It was underlined that the long-anticipated consumption-led recovery in the euro area had so far not materialised. This raised the question of whether the projections relied too much on consumption driving the recovery. The latest data showed that households had continued to be very cautious in their spending. The saving rate was elevated and had rebounded in recent quarters in spite of already high accumulated savings, albeit from a lower level following the national accounts revisions to the backdata. This might suggest that consumers were worried about their economic prospects and had little confidence in a robust recovery, even if this was not fully in line with the observed trend increase in consumer confidence. In this context, several factors that could be behind households’ increased caution were mentioned. These included uncertainty about the geopolitical situation, fiscal policy, the economic impact of climate change and transition policies, demographic developments as well as the outcome of elections. In such an uncertain environment, businesses and households could be more cautious and wait to see how the situation would evolve.

    At the same time, it was argued that an important factor boosting the saving ratio was the high interest rate environment. While the elasticity of savings to interest rates was typically relatively low in models, the increase in interest rates since early 2022 had been very significant, coming after a long period of low or negative rates. Against this background, even a small elasticity implied a significant impact on consumption and savings. Reference was also made to the European Commission’s consumer sentiment indicators. They had been showing a gradual recovery in consumer confidence for some time (in step with lower inflation), while perceived consumer uncertainty had been retreating. Therefore, the high saving rate was unlikely to be explained by mainly precautionary motives. It rather reflected ongoing monetary policy transmission, which could, however, be expected to gradually weaken over time, with deposit and loan rates starting to fall. Surveys were already pointing to an increase in household spending. In this context, the lags in monetary policy transmission were recalled. For example, households that had not yet seen any increase in their mortgage payments would be confronted with a higher mortgage rate if their rate fixation period expired. This might be an additional factor encouraging a build-up of savings.

    Reference was also made to the concept of permanent income as an important determinant of consumer spending. If households feared that their permanent income had not increased by as much as their current disposable income, owing to structural developments in the economy, then it was not surprising that they were limiting their spending.

    Overall, it was generally considered that a recession in the euro area remained unlikely. The projected recovery relied on a pick-up in consumption and investment, which remained plausible and in line with standard economics, as the fundamentals for that dynamic to set in were largely in place. Sluggish spending was reflecting a lagged response to higher real incomes materialising over time. In addition, the rise in household savings implied a buffer that might support higher spending later, as had been the case in the United States, although consumption and savings behaviour clearly differed on opposite sides of the Atlantic.

    Particular concerns were expressed about the weakness in investment this year and in 2025, given the importance of investment for both the demand and the supply side of the economy. It was observed that the economic recovery was not expected to receive much support from capital accumulation, in part owing to the continued tightness of financial conditions, as well as to high uncertainty and structural weaknesses. Moreover, it was underlined that one of the main economic drivers of investment was profits, which had weakened in recent quarters, with firms’ liquidity buffers dissipating at the same time. In addition, in the staff projections, the investment outlook had been revised down and remained subdued. This was atypical for an economic recovery and contrasted strongly with the very significant investment needs that had been highlighted in Mario Draghi’s report on the future of European competitiveness.

    Turning to the labour market, its resilience was still remarkable. The unemployment rate remained at a historical low amid continued robust – albeit slowing – employment growth. At the same time, productivity growth had remained low and had surprised to the downside, implying that the increase in labour productivity might not materialise as projected. However, a declining vacancy rate was seen as reflecting weakening labour demand, although it remained above its pre-pandemic peak. It was noted that a decline in vacancies usually coincided with higher job destruction and therefore constituted a downside risk to employment and activity more generally. The decline in vacancies also coincided with a decline in the growth of compensation per employee, which was perceived as a sign that the labour market was cooling.

    Members underlined that it was still unclear to what extent low productivity was cyclical or might reflect structural changes with an impact on growth potential. If labour productivity was low owing to cyclical factors, it was argued that the projected increase in labour productivity did not require a change in European firms’ assumed rate of innovation or in total factor productivity. The projected increase in labour productivity could simply come from higher capacity utilisation (in the presence of remaining slack) in response to higher demand. From a cyclical perspective, in a scenario where aggregate demand did not pick up, this would sooner or later affect the labour market. Finally, even if demand were eventually to recover, there could still be a structural problem and labour productivity growth could remain subdued over the medium term. On the one hand, it was contended that in such a case potential output growth would be lower, with higher unit labour costs and price pressures. Such structural problems could not be solved by lower interest rates and had to be addressed by other policy domains. On the other hand, the view was taken that structural weakness could be amplified by high interest rates. Such structural challenges could therefore be a concern for monetary policy in the future if they lowered the natural rate of interest, potentially making recourse to unconventional policies more frequent.

    Reference was also made to the disparities in the growth outlook for different countries, which were perceived as an additional challenge for monetary policy. Since the share of manufacturing in gross value added (as well as trade openness) differed across economies, some countries in the euro area were suffering more than others from the slowdown in industrial activity. Weak growth in the largest euro area economy, in particular, was dragging down euro area growth. While part of the weakness was likely to be cyclical, this economy was facing significant structural challenges. By contrast, many other euro area countries had shown robust growth, including strong contributions from domestic demand. It was also highlighted that the course of national fiscal policies remained very uncertain, as national budgetary plans would have to be negotiated during a transition at the European Commission. In this context, the gradual improvement in the aggregated fiscal position of the euro area embedded in the projections was masking considerable differences across countries. Implementing the EU’s revised economic governance framework fully, transparently and without delay would help governments bring down budget deficits and debt ratios on a sustained basis. The effect of an expansionary fiscal policy on the economy was perceived as particularly uncertain in the current environment, possibly contributing to higher savings rather than higher spending by households (exerting “Ricardian” rather than “Keynesian” effects).

    Against this background, members called for fiscal and structural policies aimed at making the economy more productive and competitive, which would help to raise potential growth and reduce price pressures in the medium term. Mario Draghi’s report on the future of European competitiveness and Enrico Letta’s report on empowering the Single Market stressed the urgent need for reform and provided concrete proposals on how to make this happen. Governments should now make a strong start in this direction in their medium-term plans for fiscal and structural policies.

    In particular, it was argued that Mario Draghi’s report had very clearly identified the structural factors explaining Europe’s growth and industrial competitiveness gap with the United States. The report was seen as taking a long-term view on the challenges facing Europe, with the basic underlying question of how Europeans could remain in control of their own destiny. If Europe did not heed the call to invest more, the European economy would increasingly fall behind the United States and China.

    Against this background, members assessed that the risks to economic growth remained tilted to the downside. Lower demand for euro area exports, owing for instance to a weaker world economy or an escalation in trade tensions between major economies, would weigh on euro area growth. Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine and the tragic conflict in the Middle East were major sources of geopolitical risk. This could result in firms and households becoming less confident about the future and global trade being disrupted. Growth could also be lower if the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening turned out stronger than expected. Growth could be higher if inflation came down more quickly than expected and rising confidence and real incomes meant that spending increased by more than anticipated, or if the world economy grew more strongly than expected.

    With regard to price developments, members concurred with the assessment presented by Mr Lane in his introduction and underlined the fact that the recent declines in inflation had delivered good news. The incoming data had bolstered confidence that inflation would return to target by the end of 2025. Falling inflation, slowing wage growth and unit labour costs, as well as higher costs being increasingly absorbed by profits, suggested that the disinflationary process was on track. The unchanged baseline path for headline inflation in the staff projections gave reassurance that inflation would be back to target by the end of 2025.

    However, it was emphasised that core inflation was very persistent. In particular, services inflation had continued to come in stronger than projected and had moved sideways since November of last year. Recent declines in headline inflation had been strongly influenced by lower energy prices, which were known to be very volatile. Moreover, the baseline path to 2% depended critically on lower wage growth as well as on an acceleration of productivity growth towards rates not seen for many years and above historical averages.

    Conversely, it was stressed that inflation had recently been declining somewhat faster than expected, and the risk of undershooting the target was now becoming non-negligible. With Eurostat’s August HICP flash release, the projections were already too pessimistic on the pace of disinflation in the near term. Moreover, commodity prices had declined further since the cut-off date, adding downward pressure to inflation. Prices for raw materials, energy costs and competitors’ export prices had all fallen, while the euro had been appreciating against the US dollar. In addition, lower international prices not only had a short-term impact on headline euro area inflation but would ultimately also have an indirect effect on core inflation, through the price of services such as transportation (e.g. airfares). However, in that particular case, the size of the downward effect depended on how persistent the drop in energy prices was expected to be. From a longer perspective, it was underlined that for a number of consecutive rounds the projections had pointed to inflation reaching the 2% target by the end of 2025.

    At the same time, it was pointed out that the current level of headline inflation understated the challenges that monetary policy was still facing, which called for caution. Given the current high volatility in energy prices, headline inflation numbers were not very informative about medium-term price pressures. Overall, it was felt that core inflation required continued attention. Upward revisions to projected quarterly core inflation until the third quarter of 2025, which for some quarters amounted to as much as 0.3 percentage points, showed that the battle against inflation was not yet won. Moreover, domestic inflation remained high, at 4.4%. It reflected persistent price pressures in the services sector, where progress with disinflation had effectively stalled since last November. Services inflation had risen to 4.2% in August, above the levels of the previous nine months.

    The outlook for services inflation called for caution, as its stickiness might be driven by several structural factors. First, in some services sectors there was a global shortage of labour, which might be structural. Second, leisure services might also be confronted with a structural change in preferences, which warranted further monitoring. It was remarked that the projection for industrial goods inflation indicated that the sectoral rate would essentially settle at 1%, where it had been during the period of strong globalisation before the pandemic. However, in a world of fragmentation, deglobalisation and negative supply shocks, it was legitimate to expect higher price increases for non-energy industrial goods. Even if inflation was currently low in this category, this was not necessarily set to last.

    Members stressed that wage pressures were an important driver of the persistence of services inflation. While wage growth appeared to be easing gradually, it remained high and bumpy. The forward-looking wage tracker was still on an upward trajectory, and it was argued that stronger than expected wage pressures remained one of the major upside risks to inflation, in particular through services inflation. This supported the view that focus should be on a risk scenario where wage growth did not slow down as expected, productivity growth remained low and profits absorbed higher costs to a lesser degree than anticipated. Therefore, while incoming data had supported the baseline scenario, there were upside risks to inflation over the medium term, as the path back to price stability hinged on a number of critical assumptions that still needed to materialise.

    However, it was also pointed out that the trend in overall wage growth was mostly downwards, especially when focusing on growth in compensation per employee. Nominal wage growth for the first half of the year had been below the June projections. While negotiated wage growth might be more volatile, in part owing to one-off payments, the difference between it and compensation per employee – the wage drift – was more sensitive to the currently weak state of the economy. Moreover, despite the ongoing catching-up of real wages, the currently observed faster than expected disinflation could ultimately also be expected to put further downward pressure on wage claims – with second-round effects having remained contained during the latest inflation surge – and no sign of wage-price spirals taking root.

    As regards longer-term inflation expectations, market-based measures had come down notably and remained broadly anchored at 2%, reflecting the market view that inflation would fall rapidly. A sharp decline in oil prices, driven mainly by benign supply conditions and lower risk sentiment, had pushed down inflation expectations in the United States and the euro area to levels not seen for a long time. In this context it was mentioned that, owing to the weakness in economic activity and faster and broader than anticipated disinflation, risks of a downward unanchoring of inflation expectations had increased. Reference was made, in particular, to the prices of inflation fixings (swap contracts linked to specific monthly releases for euro area year-on-year HICP inflation excluding tobacco), which pointed to inflation well below 2% in the very near term – and falling below 2% much earlier than foreseen in the September projections. The view was expressed that, even if such prices were not entirely comparable with measured HICP inflation and were partly contaminated by negative inflation risk premia, their low readings suggested that the risks surrounding inflation were at least balanced or might even be on the downside, at least in the short term. However, it was pointed out that inflation fixings were highly correlated with oil prices and had limited forecasting power beyond short horizons.

    Against this background, members assessed that inflation could turn out higher than anticipated if wages or profits increased by more than expected. Upside risks to inflation also stemmed from the heightened geopolitical tensions, which could push energy prices and freight costs higher in the near term and disrupt global trade. Moreover, extreme weather events, and the unfolding climate crisis more broadly, could drive up food prices. By contrast, inflation might surprise on the downside if monetary policy dampened demand more than expected or if the economic environment in the rest of the world worsened unexpectedly.

    Turning to the monetary and financial analysis, members largely concurred with the assessment provided by Ms Schnabel and Mr Lane in their introductions. Market interest rates had declined significantly since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting in July. Market participants were now fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the deposit facility rate for the September meeting and attached a 35% probability to a further rate cut in October. In total, between two and three rate cuts were now priced in by the end of the year, up from two cuts immediately after the June meeting. The two-year OIS rate had also decreased by over 40 basis points since the July meeting. More generally it was noted that, because financial markets were anticipating the full easing cycle, this had already implied an additional and immediate easing of the monetary policy stance, which was reflected in looser financial conditions.

    The decline in market interest rates in the euro area and globally was mostly attributable to a weaker outlook for global growth and the anticipation of monetary policy easing due to reduced concerns about inflation pressures. Spillovers from the United States had played a significant role in the development of euro area market rates, while changes in euro area data – notably the domestic inflation outlook – had been limited, as could be seen from the staff projections. In addition, it was noted that, while a lower interest rate path in the United States reflected the Federal Reserve’s assessment of prospects for inflation and employment under its dual mandate, lower rates would normally be expected to stimulate the world economy, including in the euro area. However, the concurrent major decline in global oil prices suggested that this spillover effect could be counteracted by concerns about a weaker global economy, which would naturally reverberate in the euro area.

    Tensions in global markets in August had led to a temporary tightening of conditions in some riskier market segments, which had mostly and swiftly been reversed. Compared with earlier in the year, market participants had generally now switched from being concerned about inflation remaining higher for longer in a context of robust growth to being concerned about too little growth, which could be a prelude to a hard landing, amid receding inflation pressures. While there were as yet no indications of a hard landing in either the United States or the euro area, it was argued that the events of early August had shown that financial markets were highly sensitive to disappointing growth readings in major economies. This was seen to represent a source of instability and downside risks, although market developments at that time indicated that investors were still willing to take on risk. However, the view was also expressed that the high volatility and market turbulence in August partly reflected the unwinding of carry trades in wake of Bank of Japan’s policy tightening following an extended period of monetary policy accommodation. Moreover, the correction had been short-lived amid continued high valuations in equity markets and low risk premia across a range of assets.

    Financing costs in the euro area, measured by the interest rates on market debt instruments and bank loans, had remained restrictive as past policy rate increases continued to work their way through the transmission chain. The average interest rates on new loans to firms and on new mortgages had stayed high in July, at 5.1 and 3.8% respectively. It was suggested that other elements of broader financing conditions were not as tight as the level of the lending rates or broader indicators of financial conditions might suggest. Equity financing, for example, had been abundant during the entire period of disinflation and credit spreads had been very compressed. At the same time, it was argued that this could simply reflect weak investment demand, whereby firms did not need or want to borrow and so were not prepared to issue debt securities at high rates.

    Against this background, credit growth had remained sluggish amid weak demand. The growth of bank lending to firms and households had remained at levels not far from zero in July, with the former slightly down from June and the latter slightly up. The annual growth in broad money – as measured by M3 – had in July remained relatively subdued at 2.3%, the same rate as in June.

    It was suggested that the weakness in credit dynamics also reflected the still restrictive financing conditions, which were likely to keep credit growth weak through 2025. It was also argued that banks faced challenges, with their price-to-book ratios, while being higher than in earlier years, remaining generally below one. Moreover, it was argued that higher credit risk, with deteriorating loan books, had the potential to constrain credit supply. At the same time, the June rate cut and the anticipation of future cuts had already slightly lowered bank funding costs. In addition, banks remained highly profitable, with robust valuations. It was also not unusual for price-to-book ratios to be below one and banks had no difficulty raising capital. Credit demand was considered the main factor holding back loan growth, since investment remained especially weak. On the household side, it was suggested that the demand for mortgages was likely to increase with the pick-up in housing markets.

    Monetary policy stance and policy considerations

    Turning to the monetary policy stance, members assessed the data that had become available since the last monetary policy meeting in accordance with the three main elements of the Governing Council’s reaction function.

    Starting with the inflation outlook, the latest ECB staff projections had confirmed the inflation outlook from the June projections. Inflation was expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices would drop out of the annual rates. It was then expected to decline towards the target over the second half of next year, with the disinflation process supported by receding labour cost pressures and the past monetary policy tightening gradually feeding through to consumer prices. Inflation was subsequently expected to remain close to the target on a sustained basis. Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations stood at around 2%, and the market-based measures had fallen closer to that level since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting.

    Members agreed that recent economic developments had broadly confirmed the baseline outlook, as reflected in the unchanged staff projections for headline inflation, and indicated that the disinflationary path was progressing well and becoming more robust. Inflation was on the right trajectory and broadly on track to return to the target of 2% by the end of 2025, even if headline inflation was expected to remain volatile for the remainder of 2024. But this bumpy inflation profile also meant that the final phase of disinflation back to 2% was only expected to start in 2025 and rested on a number of assumptions. It therefore needed to be carefully monitored whether inflation would settle sustainably at the target in a timely manner. The risk of delays in reaching the ECB’s target was seen to warrant some caution to avoid dialling back policy restriction prematurely. At the same time, it was also argued that monetary policy had to remain oriented to the medium term even in the presence of shocks and that the risk of the target being undershot further out in the projection horizon was becoming more significant.

    Turning to underlying inflation, members noted that most measures had been broadly unchanged in July. Domestic inflation had remained high, with strong price pressures coming especially from wages. Core inflation was still relatively high, had been sticky since the beginning of the year and was continuing to surprise to the upside. Moreover, the projections for core inflation in 2024 and 2025 had been revised up slightly, as services inflation had been higher than expected. Labour cost dynamics would continue to be a central concern, with the projected decline in core and services inflation next year reliant on key assumptions for wages, productivity and profits, for which the actual data remained patchy. In particular, productivity was low and had not yet picked up, while wage growth, despite gradual easing, remained high and bumpy. A disappointment in productivity growth could be a concern, as the capacity of profits to absorb increases in unit labour costs might be reaching its limits. Wage growth would then have to decline even further for inflation to return sustainably to the target. These factors could mean that core inflation and services inflation might be stickier and not decline as much as currently expected.

    These risks notwithstanding, comfort could be drawn from the gradual decline in the momentum of services inflation, albeit from high levels, and the expectation that it would fall further, partly as a result of significant base effects. The catching-up process for wages was advanced, with wage growth already slowing down by more than had previously been projected and expected to weaken even faster next year, with no signs of a wage-price spiral. If lower energy prices or other factors reduced the cost of living now, this should put downward pressure on wage claims next year.

    Finally, members generally agreed that monetary policy transmission from the past tightening continued to dampen economic activity, even if it had likely passed its peak. Financing conditions remained restrictive. This was reflected in weak credit dynamics, which had dampened consumption and investment, and thereby economic activity more broadly. The past monetary policy tightening had gradually been feeding through to consumer prices, thereby supporting the disinflation process. There were many other reasons why monetary policy was still working its way through the economy, with research suggesting that there could be years of lagged effects before the full impact dissipated completely. For example, as firms’ and households’ liquidity buffers had diminished, they were now more exposed to higher interest rates than previously, and banks could, in turn, also be facing more credit risk. At the same time, with the last interest rate hike already a year in the past, the transmission of monetary policy was expected to weaken progressively from its peak, also as loan and deposit rates had been falling, albeit very moderately, for almost a year. The gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy were thus expected to support consumption and investment in the future. Nonetheless, ongoing uncertainty about the transmission mechanism, in terms of both efficacy and timing, underscored the continuing importance of monitoring the strength of monetary policy transmission.

    Monetary policy decisions and communication

    Against this background, members considered the proposal by Mr Lane to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steered the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points. As had been previously announced on 13 March 2024, some changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy would also take effect from 18 September. In particular, the spread between the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rate would be set at 15 basis points. The spread between the rate on the marginal lending facility and the rate on the main refinancing operations would remain unchanged at 25 basis points. Accordingly, the deposit facility rate would be decreased to 3.50% and the interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility would be decreased to 3.65% and 3.90% respectively.

    Based on the updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it was now appropriate to take another step in moderating the degree of monetary policy restriction. The recent incoming data and the virtually unchanged staff projections had increased members’ confidence that disinflation was proceeding steadily and inflation was on track to return towards the 2% target in a sustainable and timely manner. Headline inflation had fallen in August to levels previously seen in the summer of 2021 before the inflation surge, and there were signs of easing pressures in the labour market, with wage growth and unit labour costs both slowing. Despite some bumpy data expected in the coming months, the big picture remained one of a continuing disinflationary trend progressing at a firm pace and more or less to plan. In particular, the Governing Council’s expectation that significant wage growth would be buffered by lower profits had been confirmed in the recent data. Both survey and market-based measures of inflation expectations remained well anchored, and longer-term expectations had remained close to 2% for a long period which included times of heightened uncertainty. Confidence in the staff projections had been bolstered by their recent stability and increased accuracy, and the projections had shown inflation to be on track to reach the target by the end of 2025 for at least the last three rounds.

    It was also noted that the overall economic outlook for the euro area was more concerning and the projected recovery was fragile. Economic activity remained subdued, with risks to economic growth tilted to the downside and near-term risks to growth on the rise. These concerns were also reflected in the lower growth projections for 2024 and 2025 compared with June. A remark was made that, with inflation increasingly close to the target, real economic activity should become more relevant for calibrating monetary policy.

    Against this background, all members supported the proposal by Mr Lane to reduce the degree of monetary policy restriction through a second 25 basis point rate cut, which was seen as robust across a wide range of scenarios in offering two-sided optionality for the future.

    Looking ahead, members emphasised that they remained determined to ensure that inflation would return to the 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and that they would keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. They would also continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. There should be no pre-commitment to a particular rate path. Accordingly, it was better to maintain full optionality for the period ahead to be free to respond to all of the incoming data.

    It was underlined that the speed at which the degree of restrictiveness should be reduced depended on the evolution of incoming data, with the three elements of the stated reaction function as a solid anchor for the monitoring and decision-making process. However, such data-dependence did not amount to data point-dependence, and no mechanical weights could be attached to near-term developments in headline inflation or core inflation or any other single statistic. Rather, it was necessary to assess the implications of the totality of data for the medium-term inflation outlook. For example, it would sometimes be appropriate to ignore volatility in oil prices, but at other times, if oil price moves were likely to create material spillovers across the economy, it would be important to respond.

    Members broadly concurred that a gradual approach to dialling back restrictiveness would be appropriate if future data were in line with the baseline projections. This was also seen to be consistent with the anticipation that a gradual easing of financial conditions would support economic activity, including much-needed investment to boost labour productivity and total factor productivity.

    It was mentioned that a gradual and cautious approach currently seemed appropriate because it was not fully certain that the inflation problem was solved. It was therefore too early to declare victory, also given the upward revisions in the quarterly projections for core inflation and the recent upside surprises to services inflation. Although uncertainty had declined, it remained high, and some of the key factors and assumptions underlying the baseline outlook, including those related to wages, productivity, profits and core and services inflation, still needed to materialise and would move only slowly. These factors warranted close monitoring. The real test would come in 2025, when it would become clearer whether wage growth had come down, productivity growth had picked up as projected and the pass-through of higher labour costs had been moderate enough to keep price pressures contained.

    At the same time, it was argued that continuing uncertainty meant that there were two-sided risks to the baseline outlook. As well as emphasising the value of maintaining a data-dependent approach, this also highlighted important risk management considerations. In particular, it was underlined that there were alternative scenarios on either side. For example, a faster pace of rate cuts would likely be appropriate if the downside risks to domestic demand and the growth outlook materialised or if, for example, lower than expected services inflation increased the risk of the target being undershot. It was therefore important to maintain a meeting-by-meeting approach.

    Conversely, there were scenarios in which it might be necessary to suspend the cutting cycle for a while, perhaps because of a structural decline in activity or other factors leading to higher than expected core inflation.

    Turning to communication, members agreed that it was important to convey that recent inflation data had come in broadly as expected, and that the latest ECB staff projections had confirmed the previous inflation outlook. At the same time, to reduce the risk of near-term inflation data being misinterpreted, it should be explained that inflation was expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, partly as a result of base effects, before declining towards the target over the second half of next year. It should be reiterated that the Governing Council would continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach, would not pre-commit to a particular rate path and would continue to set policy based on the established elements of the reaction function. In view of the previously announced change to the spread between the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rate, it was also important to make clear at the beginning of the communication that the Governing Council steered the monetary policy stance through the deposit facility rate.

    Members also agreed with the Executive Board proposal to continue applying flexibility in the partial reinvestment of redemptions falling due in the pandemic emergency purchase programme portfolio.

    Taking into account the foregoing discussion among the members, upon a proposal by the President, the Governing Council took the monetary policy decisions as set out in the monetary policy press release. The members of the Governing Council subsequently finalised the monetary policy statement, which the President and the Vice-President would, as usual, deliver at the press conference following the Governing Council meeting.

    Monetary policy statement

    Other ECB staff

    • Mr Proissl, Director General Communications
    • Mr Straub, Counsellor to the President
    • Ms Rahmouni-Rousseau, Director General Market Operations
    • Mr Arce, Director General Economics
    • Mr Sousa, Deputy Director General Economics

    Release of the next monetary policy account foreseen on 14 November 2024.

    MIL OSI Global Banks –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Press release – Human rights breaches in Türkiye, China and Iraq

    Source: European Parliament

    On Thursday, the Parliament adopted three resolutions on human rights issues in Türkiye, China and Iraq.

    The case of Bülent Mumay in Turkey

    MEPs express their deep concern about the ongoing deterioration of democratic standards in Türkiye, and the targeting of independent journalists, activists and opposition members.

    They condemn the sentence against Bülent Mumay and call on the authorities to drop the charges against him and all arbitrarily detained media workers, political opponents, human rights defenders, civil servants and academics. MEPs deplore a complex web of legislation that systematically silences and controls journalists, and denounce the new “foreign agent regulation” to be introduced by the end of 2024.

    Parliament calls on Turkish authorities to restore judicial independence, respect press freedom and ensure compliance with international human rights obligations.

    The resolution was adopted by show of hands. The full version will be available here (10/10/2024).

    The cases of unjustly imprisoned Uyghurs in China, notably Ilham Tohti and Gulshan Abbas

    China must immediately and unconditionally release Ilham Tohti, 2019 Sakharov Prize laureate, and Gulshan Abbas, as well as all those arbitrarily detained in China, MEPs say. They strongly condemn the human rights violations against Uyghurs and people in Tibet, Hong Kong, Macau and mainland China.

    The resolution demands that all internment camps be closed and denounces abusive policies, intense surveillance, forced labour, sterilisation, birth prevention measures and the destruction of the Uyghur identity, which amount to crimes against humanity and constitute a serious risk of genocide. MEPs welcome the EU’s forced labour regulation and call on businesses operating in China to comply with the human rights due diligence obligations.

    Parliament calls on the EU and member states to adopt additional sanctions against high-ranking officials and entities involved in human rights violations in China, address transnational repression of Chinese dissidents and Uyghurs, and prosecute the individuals responsible.

    The resolution was adopted by 540 votes for, 23 against, and 47 abstentions. The full version will be available here (10/10/2024).

    Iraq, notably the situation of women’s rights and the recent proposal to amend the Personal Status Law

    MEPs urge Iraq’s Parliament to fully and immediately reject the amendments to the Personal Status Law and warn of the consequences of this recent proposal, which violates Iraq’s international obligations on women’s fundamental rights. They praise the women, including Members of the Iraqi Parliament who have condemned the reform, and the NGOs, activists and members of civil society that are fighting to preserve one of the most progressive laws in the region.

    They underline that the penal code does not legally protect women and child victims of domestic violence in the country and deplore the fact that the proposed amendments to the law, if enacted, would lead to an even more radical application of Sharia law.

    The resolution urges Iraq to adopt a national action plan to eliminate child marriage, criminalise marital rape, fight domestic violence and strengthen women’s and girls’ rights, in line with the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women.

    MEPs call on the EU delegation to Iraq to make development grants conditional on judicial training on sexual and gender-based violence and the establishment of women’s shelters, and demand member states increase their support to women’s and children’s rights defenders in Iraq.

    The resolution was adopted by show of hands.
    The full version will be available here (10/10/2024).

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Colombia: EIB Global provides Enel Colombia with $300 million loan for renewable energy generation and power grid improvements

    Source: European Investment Bank

    • The facility finances solar photovoltaic (PV) plants totalling approximately 486 MW of capacity, and the improvement and expansion of the Enel Colombia distribution business.
    • The loan is in Colombian pesos and with the help of a synthetic product neutralises exchange rate risks.
    • The loan is the first of its kind to be issued by the EIB in favour of an Enel Group subsidiary.

    The European Investment Bank (EIB), in partnership with Enel and SACE, the Italian Export Credit Agency, has provided Enel Group subsidiary Enel Colombia with a loan in the local currency, for a maximum amount in Colombian pesos equivalent to $300 million, which through a synthetic product neutralises the exchange rate risk. The loan is backed by a SACE guarantee. Through this facility, aimed at financing the development of power grids and renewable energy generation in Colombia, the EIB, Enel and SACE have joined forces to support the energy transition in the country and mitigate the effects of climate change.

    This agreement is in line with the EU Commission’s Global Gateway Investment Agenda, and it is the first EIB framework loan exclusively dedicated to financing Enel Colombia’s sustainable development, as well as being the first EIB synthetic product with an Enel Group subsidiary.

    Specifically, the facility will finance the solar PV plants Guayepo I and II, totalling approximately 486 MW of capacity, and the improvement and expansion of the Enel Colombia distribution business, which serves more than 3.7 million customers in Bogota, boosting resilience as well as enabling new connections and e-mobility, in line with the Bogotá Region 2030 project.

    The agreement builds upon the EIB’s longstanding successful collaboration with Enel and SACE in Latin America which has already granted a multi-country, multi-business and multi-currency facility of up to $900 million in Latin America to Enel Group’s subsidiaries in the area.

    “This project, in line with the Global Gateway Investment Agenda, contributes to reducing the infrastructure gap between wealthier and less developed regions of Colombia and increases the participation of renewable energy in the power matrix of the country by incorporating additional solar energy generation capacity. I welcome the opportunity to continue the fruitful cooperation with the Enel Group, which has a longstanding and successful relationship with the EIB and is one of its largest borrowers, and SACE, with whom the EIB also has an extensive relationship in supporting projects inside and outside the European Union,” said EIB Vice-President Ioannis Tsakiris.

    “The agreement with the EIB and SACE is a virtuous example of synergies between the public and private sector and confirms our sustainability commitment,” said Enel CFO Stefano De Angelis. “This partnership adds further value to our business projects through a development strategy focused on renewables and grids, while contributing to accelerate the energy transition as well as the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in line with our Group’s Strategic Plan, the Paris Agreement and the UN 2030 Agenda.”

    “We are pleased to be part of this high-impact transaction, which testifies to our long-lasting partnership with Enel and the EIB and our strategic vision of long-term growth. Latin America and Colombia represent a significant opportunity for both the energy transition and the Italian technologies that can support it. Our team in Bogotá, where we have inaugurated our office in recent days, will continue to play a vital role for these projects,” stated Valerio Perinelli, Chief Business Officer at SACE.    

    Background information

    About the EIB

    The European Investment Bank is the long-term lending institution of the European Union owned by its Member States. It makes long-term finance available for sound investment in order to contribute towards EU policy goals. The EIB brings the experience and expertise of in-house engineers and economists to help develop and appraise top quality projects. As an AAA-rated, policy-driven EU financial institution, the EIB offers attractive financial terms – loans at competitive interest rates and with durations aligned with the projects it finances. Through our partnerships with the European Union and other donors, we can provide grants to further improve the development impact of the projects we support.

    About EIB Global in Latin America

    EIB Global has been providing economic support for projects in Latin America since 2022, facilitating long-term investment with favourable conditions and offering the technical support needed to ensure that these projects deliver positive social, economic and environmental results. Since the EIB began operating in Latin America in 1993, it has provided total financing of around €14 billion to support more than 160 projects in 15 countries in the region.

    About the Global Gateway initiative

    EIB Global is a key partner in the implementation of the European Union’s Global Gateway initiative, supporting sound projects that improve global and regional connectivity in the digital, climate, transport, health, energy and education sectors. Investing in connectivity is at the very heart of what EIB Global does, building on the Bank’s 65 years of experience in this domain. Alongside our partners, fellow EU institutions and Member States, we aim to support €100 billion of investment (around one-third of the overall envelope of the initiative) by the end of 2027, including in Colombia and Latin America.

    About SACE

    SACE is the Italian financial insurance company specialised in supporting the growth and development of businesses and the national economy through a wide range of tools and solutions to improve competitiveness in Italy and worldwide. For over 40 years, SACE has been the partner of reference for Italian companies exporting to and expanding in foreign markets. SACE also cooperates with the banking system, providing financial guarantees to facilitate companies’ access to credit. This role has been reinforced by the extraordinary measures introduced by the so-called Liquidity Decree and by the Simplifications Decree. With a portfolio of insured transactions and guaranteed investments totalling €156 billion, SACE serves over 26 000 companies, especially small and medium businesses (SMEs), supporting their growth in Italy and in around 200 foreign markets, with a diversified range of insurance and financial products and services.

    About Enel

    Enel is a multinational power company and a leading integrated player in the global power and renewables markets. At global level, it is the largest renewable private player, the foremost electricity distribution network player by number of grid customers served and the biggest retail operator by customer base. The Enel Group is the largest European utility by ordinary EBITDA[1]. Enel is present in 28 countries worldwide, producing energy with more than 88 GW of total capacity. Enel Grids, the Group’s global business line dedicated to the management of the electricity distribution service worldwide, delivers electricity through a network of 1.9 million kilometres with 69 million end users. Enel’s renewables arm Enel Green Power has a total capacity of around 64 GW and a generation mix that includes wind, solar, geothermal and hydroelectric power, as well as energy storage facilities installed in Europe, the Americas, Africa, Asia and Oceania. Enel X Global Retail is the Group’s business line dedicated to customers around the world, with the aim of effectively providing products and services based on their energy needs and encouraging them towards a more conscious and sustainable use of energy. Globally, it provides electricity and integrated energy services to around 58 million customers worldwide, offering flexibility services aggregating 9 GW, managing around 3 million lighting points, and with 27 300 owned public charging points for electric mobility.

     [1] Enel’s leadership in the different categories is defined by comparison with competitors’ FY2023 data. Fully state-owned operators are not included. 

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Cassidy Meets Vietnam Veterans in DeRidder

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Louisiana Bill Cassidy
    ALEXANDRIA – Yesterday, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA) visited the local Vietnam Veterans of America (VVA) Chapter in DeRidder, where he greeted veterans as they gathered for their monthly meeting and discussed what he can do to help them.
    “I appreciate having the opportunity to speak with veterans on what we can do for them,” said Dr. Cassidy. “My office helps vets every day get appointments at the VA or get disability claims reviewed. I’m also doing everything I can in Washington to protect their benefits. They served us. We need to serve them.”
    In 2022, Cassidy passed and signed into law the Solid Start Act, solidifying a Trump-era policy which requires that veterans be contacted three times by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) during their first year after leaving the service about the VA benefits they’re eligible to receive. More recently, Cassidy and U.S. Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) demanded answers from the Overton Brooks VA Medical Center in Shreveport after an inspector general report found they failed to comply with suicide prevention protocols, which enabled both a suicide and a suicide attempt.
    Cassidy has also introduced legislation to form a policy advisory commission that will ensure a transparent, expert-driven review process for the Veterans Health Administration, making sure that they efficiently and effectively provide health care to the veterans they serve. His Baton Rouge office also can expedite disability rating, pension, and appeal applications for veterans and their spouses or widows, under certain circumstances. They can also help with VA appointments and related matters, and can be reached at (225) 929-7711.
    The VVA chapter met in the War Memorial Civic Center for Beauregard Parish, which originally opened on November 28, 1941 as a United Service Organization (USO) base to entertain troops participating in the Louisiana Maneuvers and for those stationed at DeRidder Army Air Base and what was then Fort Polk. It was the first USO base not built on a military installation, and was donated to the USO. Soldiers of the U.S. 45th Infantry Division, known as the Thunderbirds, were the first to use it. It was used through World War II and the Korean War.
    89,000 soldiers visited the DeRidder USO, with 15,000 receiving showers and 27,000 watching movies. Dances were also held three times per week during World War II. Today, the Civic Center hosts a War Room Museum with many items from World War II on display, and hosts events such as the monthly meeting of VVA Chapter #1138. Their commander, Mr. Glenn Dean, welcomed Cassidy to their meeting.
    “We are grateful for Senator Cassidy stopping by our meeting to learn more about the needs of our community,” said Mr. Dean. “We fought for our country abroad so our neighbors could live in freedom here. In return, we ask for a VA that serves us, and we look forward to Senator Cassidy working to make that happen.”

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Hong Kong Customs seizes suspected cannabis buds and suspected methamphetamine at airport (with photo)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         â€‹Hong Kong Customs yesterday (October 9) detected three drug trafficking cases involving baggage concealment at Hong Kong International Airport and seized about 13.5 kilograms of suspected cannabis buds and about 3kg of suspected methamphetamine with a total estimated market value of about $5.2 million.

         The first and second case involved two male passengers, aged 24 and 20, who respectively arrived in Hong Kong from Bangkok, and from Chiang Mai, Thailand, via Bangkok, yesterday. During customs clearance, about 7.8kg and 5.7kg of suspected cannabis buds was seized from their check-in suitcases respectively. The two men were subsequently arrested. The dangerous drugs were packed in plastic bags and vacuum-sealed bags, and mix-loaded with personal belongings.

         The third case involved a 30-year-old male passenger arriving in Hong Kong from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, yesterday. During customs clearance, about 3kg of suspected methamphetamine was found concealed in the false compartment of his check-in suitcase. The man was subsequently arrested.

         Investigations of the three cases are ongoing.

         Customs will continue to step up enforcement against drug trafficking activities through intelligence analysis. The department also reminds members of the public to stay alert and not to participate in drug trafficking activities for monetary returns. They must not accept hiring or delegation from another party to carry controlled items into and out of Hong Kong. They are also reminded not to carry unknown items for other people.

         Customs will continue to apply a risk assessment approach and focus on selecting passengers from high-risk regions for clearance to combat transnational drug trafficking activities.

         Under the Dangerous Drugs Ordinance, trafficking in a dangerous drug is a serious offence. The maximum penalty upon conviction is a fine of $5 million and life imprisonment.

         Members of the public may report any suspected drug trafficking activities to Customs’ 24-hour hotline 182 8080 or its dedicated crime-reporting email account (crimereport@customs.gov.hk) or online form (eform.cefs.gov.hk/form/ced002).      

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Speech by DSJ at Spanish National Day Reception in Hong Kong (English only) (with photos)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         Following is the speech by the Deputy Secretary for Justice, Mr Cheung Kwok-kwan, at the Spanish National Day Reception in Hong Kong today (October 10):
     
    Consul General (Consul General of Spain in Hong Kong, Mr Miguel Aguirre de Cárcer), Deputy Commissioner Fang Jianming (Deputy Commissioner of the Office of the Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region), distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,
     
         Good evening. I’m delighted to be here tonight to celebrate the national day of Spain. This is a proud and festive occasion throughout Spain, one of the major economies in the European Union.
     
         A celebration, too, of the growing ties between our two economies.
     
         Less than three weeks ago, the Financial Secretary visited Madrid, leading a high-profile delegation of Hong Kong start-up companies, together with the heads of Hong Kong Science Park and Cyberport.
     
         Over three fruitful days, the Financial Secretary and his delegation visited a variety of Spanish start-ups, investors and corporate representatives, such as start-up accelerators IMPACT and Wayra, and Spanish telecommunications company Telefónica, and met with the Director General of CDTI (the Centro para el Desarrollo Tecnológico y la Innovación), which promotes I&T (innovation and technology) co-operation between Spain and other economies.
     
         They also met with Spain Startup President and officials from IE University, the organisers of the renowned innovation and entrepreneurship event South Summit, which brings together a world of start-ups, investors, and entrepreneurs each year. The Financial Secretary welcomed the prospect of holding the South Summit in Hong Kong, and for good reasons.
     
         Asia’s super-connector, Hong Kong is at the heart of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its consumer-powered population of more than 80 million people. Technology and innovation will drive the flourishing future of both Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area.
     
         Hong Kong is also among the world’s leading financial centres – placing third worldwide and topping the Asia-Pacific in the latest Global Financial Centres Index. Also, in the World Bank Group Business Ready 2024 Report which was just published last week, Hong Kong is among the top ten performers among 50 economies covered in that report. 
     
         We are familiar with the common law and we have connection with the Mainland legal system through a number of very important mutual legal assistance arrangements. Hong Kong is also a unique gateway. We can help Spanish start-ups find markets, and fund their expansion in the Mainland China and throughout Asia.
     
         Our legal co-operation with Spain is also well-established. I’m pleased to say that there has been well-established regimes for legal co-operation on mutual legal assistance in criminal matters, and the co-operation has been smooth and effective.
     
         Our good ties extend to culture and culinary creativity, too. This year’s Hong Kong Wine & Dine Festival opens in less than two weeks at Central Harbourfont. And I know Hong Kong will revel in the Festival’s Spanish gourmet delights and featured wine and spirit tastings. They will surely be among the highlights of this year’s Wine & Dine Festival. I’ll see you there.
     
         And now, ladies and gentlemen, please join me in a toast: to the people of Spain.      

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital announces event involving insertion of nasogastric tube

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital announces event involving insertion of nasogastric tube
    Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital announces event involving insertion of nasogastric tube
    ******************************************************************************************

    The following is issued on behalf of the Hospital Authority:     The spokesperson for Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital (PYNEH) made the following announcement today (October 10) regarding an event involving insertion of nasogastric tube:     A 76-year-old male patient was clinically admitted to PYNEH yesterday (October 9) for a scheduled colonoscopy. Owing to his clinical needs, a nasogastric tube was inserted on the day of admission for drug administration. The nasogastric tube was subsequently found to have been misplaced in the bronchus and the medication has entered the patient’s lungs. In view of the episode of transient deterioration of the condition, the patient was subsequently transferred to Intensive Care Unit for further support. The patient is in critical condition but had gradually improved after treatment.     After initial investigation, it was found that the procedure for verifying nasogastric tube position was in compliance with the prevailing guideline. A chest X-ray was arranged to confirm the tube position. It was suspected that an intern doctor had misinterpreted the chest X-ray findings, and could not identify that the nasogastric tube was misplaced in the bronchus. Following drug administration, the patient developed abdominal pain and shortness of breath. Immediate assessment and treatment were provided to the patient. The nasogastric tube was found to be misplaced in the bronchus upon re-examination of the chest X-ray.     PYNEH is very concerned about the incident and has contacted the patient’s family to provide explanation and extend sincere apologies. PYNEH will continue to closely communicate with the patient’s family and provide necessary assistance to them. Meanwhile, the hospital has reported the case to the Hospital Authority Head Office (HAHO) through the Advance Incident Reporting System, and will continue to enhance training and supervision for interns. A Root Cause Analysis Panel will be set up for investigation. The report will be submitted to HAHO in eight weeks. The Panel members are as follows:Chairperson:Dr Michael WongDirector (Quality and Safety), Hospital AuthorityMembers:Dr Ng Man-faiConsultant, Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Tuen Mun HospitalMs Louisa LeungSenior Manager (Nursing), Hospital AuthorityDr Nicole ChauSenior Manager (Patient Safety and Risk Management), Hospital AuthorityDr Sara HoService Director (Quality and Safety), Hong Kong East ClusterMr Mok Long-chauCluster General Manager (Nursing), Hong Kong East Cluster

     
    Ends/Thursday, October 10, 2024Issued at HKT 21:25

    NNNN

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Security: Resident of New Hampshire Sentenced for Involvement in Online Scheme to Defraud the Elderly

    Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) State Crime News

    ALEXANDRIA, La. – United States Attorney Brandon B. Brown announced that Raj Vinodchandra Patel, 34, of New Hampshire, has been sentenced by United States District Judge Dee D. Drell to 51 months in prison for his role in an online scheme to defraud the elderly.  On June 20, 2024, Patel pleaded guilty to one count indictment charging him with conspiracy to commit wire fraud.  

    Sometime in September 2023, an elderly resident in Alexandria, Louisiana, saw a “pop-up” message on their computer screen which directed them to call a computer “helpline.” This alleged computer helpline was merely a contact number being operated by one of Patel’s co-conspirators from India. When the victim called this supposed helpline, they were told that criminal activity had been seen on their computer and then transferred them to an alleged special agent working for the Federal Trade Commission in Washington, D.C. who would assist them further. However, the victim was not actually communicating with a federal agent but in truth and in fact, it was another of Patel’s co-conspirators operating from India. This fake federal agent falsely claimed that the victim’s Social Security number had been compromised, and that their monetary assets were at risk and that the only way to fix it would be for the victim to liquidate their bank account, buy gold bullion, and then transfer that gold bullion to another federal agent who would maintain the gold for supposed safe keeping until the “federal investigation” was completed. When in truth and in fact, there was no federal investigation, but this was an online scam to steal money and property from the victim. 

    Patel worked as a courier in this wire fraud scheme. On October 7, 2023, he flew from Boston to New Orleans, rented a car, and drove to the victim’s residence to retrieve the gold bullion. The victim had been instructed by Patel’s co-conspirator in India to place the gold bullion into the backseat of Patel’s rental car. Unbeknownst to Patel, however, the victim had contacted the Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”) about the fraud scheme. The FBI set up a sting operation and video recorded Patel retrieving the package from the victim and driving away.

    Troopers with the Louisiana State Police stopped Patel and he was placed under arrest. Following his arrest, Patel admitted to his part in this scheme and that he had flown to other places across the United States for gold pickups from other elderly victims. Patel further admitted that as he was being stopped by law enforcement officers, he deleted the “WhatsApp Business” application from his cell phone in order to conceal his communications with co-conspirators. The intended loss amount attributed to this fraud scheme was approximately $514,000.

    “There is a keen federal interest to protect the elderly and prosecute those who take advantage of their vulnerability by using them to commit financial crimes,” said United States Attorney Brandon B. Brown. “This is a transnational crime, spanning from India to central Louisiana, that was investigated because the victim trusted his/her instincts and immediately contacted law enforcement. The Department of Justice is ready, willing, and able to seek justice for the elderly, who are the backbone of our country.”

    “Victims in Louisiana lost nearly $12 million dollars to schemes just like this one last year and those are the people we know about,” said Special Agent in Charge Lyonel Myrthil of FBI New Orleans. “The victim in this case did exactly as we ask the public to do. Trust your instincts. Take a break and call law enforcement. These actors are getting bolder and potential victims are putting their lives at risk with these encounters. We ask the public to report any suspicious activity like this to IC3.gov or by calling 1-800-CALL-FBI.”

    The case was investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Louisiana State Police and prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Mike Shannon.

    To report elder fraud, contact the dedicated National Elder Fraud Hotline at 1-833-FRAUD-11 or 1-833-372-8311 and visit the FBI’s IC3 Elder Fraud Complaint Center at IC3.gov.  To learn more about the Department of Justice’s elder justice efforts please visit the Elder Justice Initiative page.

    # # #

     

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Prime Minister of Vietnam Pham Minh Chinh

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Pham Minh Chinh, on the margins of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit.

    Prime Minister Trudeau offered condolences to Prime Minister Chinh and the people of Vietnam following the devastating impact of Typhoon Yagi, and Prime Minister Chinh thanked Canada for its support in the aftermath of the typhoon.

    The prime ministers discussed the ongoing implementation of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Canada-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership. They underlined areas for enhanced co-operation, including regional security, trade and investment, climate change, clean energy, and sustainable development.

    Prime Minister Trudeau and Prime Minister Chinh highlighted the Team Canada Trade Mission to Vietnam that took place in March of this year and discussed ways to expand bilateral trade and investment through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. They also underscored the centrality of ASEAN to the Indo-Pacific region.

    Prime Minister Trudeau and Prime Minister Chinh reaffirmed the strong partnership between Canada and Vietnam, including through strong people-to-people ties, and they agreed to remain in close and regular contact. Prime Minister Trudeau indicated that Canada looks forward to hosting Vietnam’s Minister of Industry and Trade, Nguyen Hong Dien, next month.

    Associated Links

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Prime Minister of Laos Sonexay Siphandone

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with the Prime Minister of Laos, Sonexay Siphandone, on the margins of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit.

    Prime Minister Trudeau congratulated Prime Minister Siphandone on a successful year as ASEAN host and thanked him for hosting the ASEAN-Canada Special Summit on Enhancing ASEAN Connectivity and Resilience. Prime Minister Siphandone welcomed Prime Minister Trudeau’s visit to Laos – the first official visit of a Canadian Prime Minister to the country.

    The leaders highlighted the steady growth in bilateral relations between Canada and Laos, including increased trade and investment. In the meeting, Canada announced that it would upgrade its office to open a full embassy in Vientiane. As we mark 50 years of diplomatic relations this year, the two leaders looked forward to continue strengthening the relationship between our two countries, rooted in strong people-to-people ties.

    Prime Minister Trudeau and Prime Minister Siphandone agreed to remain in close contact.

    Associated Links

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Prime Minister of Thailand Paetongtarn Shinawatra

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with the Prime Minister of Thailand, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, on the margins of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit.

    Prime Minister Trudeau congratulated Prime Minister Shinawatra on her recent appointment. The two leaders reaffirmed the strong ties between Canada and Thailand and discussed potential areas for increased collaboration on mutual priorities, including education exchanges, clean energy technologies, and peace and security.

    The leaders discussed the ongoing implementation of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. They also highlighted opportunities to strengthen the trade relationship between Canada and Thailand, including through the upcoming Team Canada Trade Mission to Thailand in 2025 and ongoing work toward a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement.

    The prime ministers discussed the situation in Ukraine, including its global impacts. Prime Minister Trudeau invited Thailand to participate in the Ministerial Conference on the Human Dimensions of Ukraine’s 10-Point Peace Formula, which Canada will co-host with Ukraine and Norway, in Montréal, on October 30 and 31.

    Prime Minister Trudeau and Prime Minister Shinawatra agreed to stay in close contact and looked forward to ongoing collaboration on shared priorities.

    Associated Links

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., on the margins of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit.

    The leaders highlighted the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Canada and the Philippines, rooted in deep people-to-people ties.

    President Marcos Jr. noted that the Canada-Philippines relationship is stronger than ever, and the two leaders discussed progress in different areas of bilateral co-operation, including defence, development assistance, trade, agriculture and agri-food, education, and clean technologies. They welcomed the upcoming Team Canada Trade Mission to the Philippines, planned for December, as well as progress in negotiations toward a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement.

    The leaders discussed Russia’s unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine and its global impacts. Prime Minister Trudeau invited the Philippines to participate in the Ministerial Conference on the Human Dimensions of Ukraine’s 10-Point Peace Formula, which Canada will co-host with Ukraine and Norway, in Canada, from October 30 to 31.

    In the context of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, both leaders also expressed concern over increasing tensions in the South China Sea, noting their mutual commitment to regional security and international law. Each of them welcomed the strengthening of maritime co-operation through Canada’s Dark Vessel Detection Program.

    Prime Minister Trudeau and President Marcos Jr. agreed to remain in close contact and looked forward to meeting again.

    Associated Links

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese and Prime Minister of New Zealand Christopher Luxon

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with the Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, and the Prime Minister of New Zealand, Christopher Luxon, on the margins of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit.

    The prime ministers highlighted the importance of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and emphasized their commitment to strengthening the rules on trade and responding to the challenges of the 21st century. The leaders also discussed co-operation on critical minerals, including the importance of building stable, resilient, and responsible critical mineral supply chains.

    The three leaders discussed global issues of common concern, including the crisis in the Middle East. They expressed their grave concern at the violence and loss of life, and emphasized the urgent need for de-escalation across the region.

    Prime Minister Trudeau emphasized the importance of Australia and New Zealand – close allies and members of the Five Eyes – as key partners to Canada in the Indo-Pacific region and globally, for advancing shared priorities such as peace and security, democracy, the rule of law, and human rights.

    The prime ministers expressed their strong commitment to the Commonwealth and their support to Samoa as it prepares to serve as the first ever Pacific Island host for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting later this month.

    The leaders agreed to stay in close contact and to continue working together to advance shared priorities.

    Associated Links

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Manet

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with the Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Manet, on the margins of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit.

    The leaders discussed the growing ties between the two countries, including the upgrade of Canada’s office in Phnom Penh to a full Canadian embassy. Prime Minister Trudeau also announced plans for a Team Canada Trade Mission to Cambodia in 2025 under Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy.

    The prime ministers discussed how the deepening trade link between Canada and Cambodia would benefit from a Canada-ASEAN free-trade agreement, helping drive prosperity and create good jobs in both our countries and across the region.

    Prime Minister Trudeau welcomed Cambodia’s selection to host the 20th Sommet de la Francophonie in 2026, and committed to co-operating on reinforcing common values shared by the Francophone community, including promoting peace, democracy, and human rights.

    The leaders agreed to stay in close contact and looked forward to ongoing collaboration.

    Associated Links

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Security: St. Michael Man Pleads Guilty to Child Abuse in Death of One-Year-Old

    Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) State Crime Alerts (b)

    Fargo – United States Attorney Mac Schneider announced that Collin Ray Delorme, also known as Collin Ray Delorme Sr., age 29, from St. Michael, North Dakota, appeared in federal court on October 9, 2024, in Fargo and pleaded guilty before District Court Judge Peter Welte to three counts of Child Abuse in Indian country.

    As noted in court documents, on February 18, 2023, Delorme’s co-defendant Kenzie Rose Baker called 911 from a home in St. Michael on the Spirit Lake Reservation and reported a one-year-old child was not breathing. The child was transported to CHI St. Alexius in Devils Lake, North Dakota and was pronounced dead.

    An autopsy concluded the cause of death was “battered child” due to multiple, repeated injuries of various ages, evident upon external and internal examination. The child’s internal injuries were untreated, given rise to infection and sepsis.

    Baker admitted she observed swelling present for two weeks but failed to seek medical care. After the child’s death, Delorme claimed an external injury to the child’s back, which was above a spinal fracture, occurred when he misjudged a step and his boot slipped and a flashlight hit the child.

    Two of the charges that Delorme pleaded guilty to are related to his abuse and the resulting death of the one-year-old child.  The third charge is the result of Delorme’s abuse of a second child, who was three years old, by hitting the child on the arms and throwing him on the bed.

    Delorme is scheduled for sentencing on February 18, 2025, and faces a maximum sentence of forty years in prison.

    On August 16, 2024, Baker pled guilty to charges of Accessory after the Fact; Child Abuse in Indian country; Child Neglect in Indian country. Baker is scheduled to be sentenced on January 22, 2025.

    Baker and Delorme are detained pending sentencing.

    “Today’s guilty plea is a step towards accountability for the heartrending death of a young child,” Schneider said. “The way this toddler was treated was horrific and shameful. Whether it is at multi-disciplinary team meetings throughout the District of North Dakota or by holding child abusers accountable in federal court, our career prosecutors and partners in law enforcement are committed to protecting kids and preventing tragic cases like this one.”

    This case was investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorneys Lori H. Conroy and SheraLynn Ternes.

    Previous Press release for co-defendant Kenzie Rose Baker can be seen HERE:

    ######

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Road blocked, SH32, Whakamaru Road

    Source: New Zealand Police (District News)

    Whakamaru Road, State Highway 32, is blocked following a serious crash this morning.

    Emergency services are in attendance of a two-vehicle crash, reported at around 6.30am.

    Initial indications suggest there are serious injuries.

    The road is blocked, motorists are advised to follow diversions and expect delays.

    ENDS

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Woman arrested after Christchurch incident

    Source: New Zealand Police (National News)

    Attribute to Detective Senior Sergeant Colin Baillie:

    A woman has been charged after a man suffered critical injuries in Christchurch overnight.

    About 10.30pm, a taxi driver arrived at a fastfood restaurant on Memorial Avenue to seek help after being stabbed several times. The victim suffered critical injuries but is now serious but stable condition in hospital.

    About 15 minutes after Police were called, the alleged offender was taken into custody at a nearby hotel.

    Cordons were in place overnight and enquiries into the incident are ongoing.

    Police will have an ongoing presence in the area today while a scene examination is carried out, but we do not believe there is any ongoing risk to the public and are not seeking anyone else in relation to the incident.

    A 46-year-old Auckland woman has been charged with wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm and is due to appear in the Christchurch District Court today.

    If you have any information that could help our enquiries, please update us online now or call 105.

    Please use the reference number 241011/2985.

    ENDS

    Issued by the Police Media Centre

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Ohio Man Sentenced for Creating and Distributing Videos Depicting Monkey Torture and Mutilation

    Source: US State of Vermont

    An Ohio man was sentenced today to 54 months in prison and three years of supervised release in connection with his involvement with online groups dedicated to creating and distributing videos depicting acts of extreme violence and sexual abuse against monkeys.

    According to court documents, Ronald P. Bedra, of Etna, conspired with others to create and distribute videos depicting acts of sadistic violence against baby and adult monkeys. The conspirators used encrypted chat applications to direct money to individuals in Indonesia willing to commit the requested acts of torture on camera. Bedra also mailed a thumb drive containing 64 videos of monkey torture to a co-conspirator in Wisconsin.

    According to a statement of facts signed by defendant Bedra, the videos in question included depictions of monkeys having their digits and limbs severed and monkeys being forcibly sodomized with a heated screwdriver. Bedra pleaded guilty in April.

    “Defendant Ronald Bedra commissioned grotesque videos of torture of juvenile and baby monkeys,” said Assistant Attorney General Todd Kim of the Justice Department’s Environment and Natural Resources Division. “Such appalling conduct has no place in our society. The Justice Department stands ready to prosecute individuals engaging in this activity to the fullest extent of the law.”

    “We will punish participants of sadistic conspiracies like this one no matter their role in the crime,” said U.S. Attorney Kenneth L. Parker for the Southern District of Ohio. “As this case shows, even if you do not commit the torture firsthand, you will be held accountable for promoting this obscene animal abuse.”

    “The torture of animals in this case is disturbing, cruel and illegal,” said Special Agent in Charge Elena Iatarola of FBI’s Cincinnati Field Office. “The FBI and our partners will continue to work to protect defenseless animals and investigate those who intentionally harm them.”

    “Today’s sentencing underscores the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s unwavering commitment to combating the exploitation of wildlife in any form,” said Assistant Director Edward Grace of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Office of Law Enforcement. “These monstrous crimes are indefensible. This case serves as a stark reminder that those who harm animals protected under federal and international laws and treaties will face serious consequences. We continue to work diligently with our partners to identify and prosecute individuals engaged in these cruel activities to the fullest extent of the law.”

    The FBI and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service investigated the case. Homeland Security Investigations provided critical assistance.

    Trial Attorney Mark Romley and Senior Trial Attorney Adam Cullman of the Environment and Natural Resources Division’s Environmental Crimes Section and Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicole Pakiz for the Southern District of Ohio are prosecuting the case.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Health – Whooping cough outbreak prompts calls for urgent action

    Source: Asthma and Respiratory Foundation

    Health experts are calling for urgent widespread vaccination to protect our most vulnerable as whooping cough cases in Aotearoa hit their highest levels in five years.
    The Asthma and Respiratory Foundation NZ, which is supported by leading respiratory specialists, is urging swift preventative measures, particularly for those with existing respiratory conditions.
    Figures from the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR) show 187 cases reported in September, more than double the previous month’s total of 75.
    Foundation Medical Director Professor Bob Hancox says whooping cough poses serious health risks for people with respiratory conditions.
    “Whooping cough is a life-threatening illness for young babies, but can also cause serious illness in those already struggling with respiratory issues.
    “It can exacerbate symptoms, leading to hospitalisations or even fatalities.”
    Even among people without respiratory disease, it can cause a nasty illness with a cough that can last for months, Professor Hancox says.
    “So it is crucial that we take this spike in cases seriously – vaccination is our best and strongest defence to protect those who are most vulnerable.”
    Whooping cough, or Bordetella pertussis, is a highly contagious illness.
    According to Healthify, on average, each person with whooping cough passes the infection on to 12 other people.
    Whooping cough causes bouts of intense coughing and trouble breathing. Each bout may last for two or three minutes, and the cough can last three months.
    It can cause serious illness and sometimes death in babies, young children and older adults.
    Foundation Chief Executive Ms Letitia Harding says the best action we can take to protect each other, including the 1 in 5 Kiwis affected by respiratory disease, is to get vaccinated.
    “As we face the risk of a widespread outbreak, it is critical for at-risk individuals to be vaccinated.
    “This includes pregnant people, babies, and older adults with pre-existing respiratory conditions,” she says.
    “The reality is that whooping cough can be fatal, so we are urging all Kiwis to do their part.”

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Business – Appointment of Independent Director to Fonterra Board

    Source: Fonterra

    Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited today announced the appointment of a new Appointed Director, Alistair Field, who will join the Fonterra Board as an Independent Director on 1 November 2024.  

    Mr Field is based in Australia and has 30 years of experience in the mining, metals, manufacturing and logistics sectors. He is currently a Non-Executive Director of BlueScope Steel Limited and Alcoa Corporation and previously served on the board of Alumina Limited, which is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Alcoa Corporation.  

    Prior to commencing his governance career, Mr Field held the position of Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of ASX-listed Sims Limited, based in the United States and Australia. Prior to joining Sims Limited, he held a number of senior leadership positions including as Director of the Patrick Terminal & Logistics division of Asciano Limited and as Chief Operating Officer of Rio Tinto’s Bauxite and Alumina Division.  

    Chairman Peter McBride says the Co-operative’s Board is pleased to welcome Mr Field with his international mindset and extensive operational, corporate and industry experience.  

    “Alistair presents as a grounded and authentic leader. In his conversations with the Board, he has demonstrated an understanding of our co-operative mindset and empathy toward the challenges and aspirations of farmers.

    “Alistair’s deep international experience includes markets that are strategically important to Fonterra, including China, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. He’s had significant exposure to initiatives that enhance sustainability and commercial outcomes in the productive industries, which is relevant to our Co-op’s own pathway and commitments in that area,’’ says Mr McBride.  

    Mr Field fills the vacancy left by Scott St John when he retired from the Fonterra Board in March. Farmers will be asked to ratify his appointment as part of the voting at this year’s Annual Meeting on 14 November.

    In accordance with the Fonterra Shareholders’ Market Rules, the Board of Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited has determined that Mr Field will be an Independent Director.

    The Independent Directors of the Manager of the Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund support Mr Field’s appointment.

    About Fonterra 

    Fonterra is a co-operative owned and supplied by thousands of farming families across Aotearoa New Zealand. Through the spirit of co-operation and a can-do attitude, Fonterra’s farmers and employees share the goodness of our milk through innovative consumer,foodservice and ingredients brands. Sustainability is at the heart of everything we do, and we’re committed to leaving things in a better way than we found them. We are passionate about supporting our communities by Doing Good Together. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –