Category: Asia Pacific

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Media advisory: Police Media Centre closing at 6pm, Sunday 22 June

    Source: New Zealand Police

    The Police Media Centre will close at 6pm on Sunday 22 June due to staffing constraints.

    Prior to that time, we will be operating with reduced staff numbers and prioritising urgent/serious incidents.

    After 6pm, information on any significant public safety issues will be released proactively.

    The centre will reopen at the usual time of 6am on Monday 23 June.

    We appreciate our media colleagues’ continued patience and understanding.

    ENDS

    Issued by Police Media Centre

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI: A Date with Light and Shadow Across Thousands of Miles: Beijing International Film Festival Shines in Sydney

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    BEIJING, CHINA, June 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — This year, the Beijing International Film Festival made its Australian debut, hosting a special promotional event on June 13 during the 72nd Sydney International Film Festival, marking a fresh encounter between Chinese cinematic culture and audiences in the Southern Hemisphere. Australia is a land that has not only nurtured a rich and unique geographical landscape but has also produced diverse masterpieces that have made their mark on the international film scene, such as “Memoir of a Snail,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” and “Moulin Rouge.” As the country’s most representative film event, the Sydney International Film Festival brings together outstanding films and creators from around the world, allowing this harbor city to showcase its unique cultural charm through the interplay of light and shadow.

    Bian Jian, Deputy Secretary-General of the Beijing International Film Festival Organizing Committee, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Beijing Radio and Television Station, Wang Shuyu, Cultural Counselor of the Consulate General of China in Sydney, Liu Dong, Director of China Cultural Centre and China National Tourist Office in Sydney, and Wang Yi, Executive Deputy Director of the Integrated Media Center of Beijing Radio and Television Station, General Manager and Editor-in-Chief of Beijing New Media Group, and Editor-in-Chief of Btime attended the event. David White, Sound Designer AMPAS Jury member of the 14th Beijing International Film Festival, Long Fei, director of Best Feature Film at the 14th Beijing International Film Festival and Best Screenplay winner “G for Gap”, and Yue Hong, actress who won Best Supporting Actress at the 14th Beijing International Film Festival, were invited to attend. In addition, guests from the Sydney International Film Festival, representatives from Australian film organizations, and members of the media also attended the promotional event for exchanges, creating a warm atmosphere.

    Liu Dong, Director of China Cultural Centre and China National Tourist Office in Sydney, delivered the opening remarks, stating that the Beijing International Film Festival, as a cultural brand with international influence, has continuously promoted the exchange and display of outstanding films from around the world in recent years, and has also continuously promoted cooperation and dialogue between Chinese films and the global film industry, including Australia. “Tonight’s event is a microcosm of Sino-Australian cultural exchange and a new starting point for us to jointly promote film cooperation to a deeper level,” Director Liu Dong said.

    Bian Jian, Deputy Secretary-General of the Beijing International Film Festival Organizing Committee, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Beijing Radio and Television Station, introduced the highlights of the 15th Beijing International Film Festival at the promotional event. He said that the Beijing International Film Festival is constantly expanding its international reach and becoming an important platform connecting filmmakers from around the world. This year’s “Tiantan Award” attracted 1,794 film submissions from 103 countries and regions, with foreign films accounting for nearly 90% of the total. The festival encompassed over 200 events, including markets, screenings, and forums. Weibo topics generated over 3.5 billion views, while Douyin videos garnered over 3.2 billion views. This online and offline synergy created a continuously evolving cultural phenomenon. The Beijing International Film Festival extends a sincere invitation to Australian filmmakers and audiences to follow, engage with, and visit Beijing, and to share in the passion and warmth of cinema.

    As recipients of multiple honors at the 14th Tiantan Award, Long Fei and Yue Hong, the core creators of “G for Gap”, shared their deep bond with the Beijing International Film Festival during the promotional event. Actress Yue Hong noted that Chinese cinema is increasingly presenting itself to global audiences in more diverse forms, and the Beijing International Film Festival serves as a crucial platform for fostering this two-way cultural exchange. Director Long Fei added that the Tiantan Award Panorama, launched by the festival, has enabled more people to experience the Chinese philosophy of life and emotional resonance through “G for Gap”.

    Tiantan Award Panorama is a key film initiative introduced by the Beijing International Film Festival as part of the “Never-ending Beijing Film Festival” campaign. It aims to bring high-quality Chinese films to local cinemas around the world by showcasing a selection of shortlisted and award-winning titles from the Tiantan Award. From June 14 to 19, Tiantan Award Panorama will present six Chinese-language films—”Lost in the Stars”, “Song of Spring”, “The Shadowless Tower”, “Beyond the Skies”, “Strangers When We Meet”, and “G for Gap”—in Sydney, bringing the warmth and humanity of Chinese stories to life on the silver screen.

    At the promotional event, we were also joined by an old friend of the Beijing International Film Festival, David White, Jury Member of the 14th Beijing International Film Festival. Reflecting on his time as a juror, he shared that the festival had left a lasting impression on him. He also expressed that there is tremendous potential for collaboration between Australia and China in the film industry. At a time when the global film market is facing challenges and box office performance is generally sluggish, he emphasized the importance of the two countries working more closely together. Ultimately, however, content is king—telling a good story is fundamental. A compelling story has its own vitality and appeal, and will eventually win over audiences and achieve strong box office results.

    The Beijing International Film Festival has always been committed to promoting cultural exchange and cooperation between Chinese and international cinema, and looks forward to continuing to work with filmmakers around the world to tell more moving stories and create a richer cultural landscape.

    Media Contact

    Company: Beijing International Film Festival

    Contact: Yulan Guo, Project Manager

    Telephone: 18600216712

    Email: invitation@bjiff.com

    Website: www.bjiff.com

    Address: 98, Jianguo Rd, Chaoyang, Beijing, 100022, CN

    SOURCE: Beijing International Film Festival

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Russia: China Accuses Philippines of Illegal Operations in South China Sea

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BEIJING, June 20 (Xinhua) — China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesman Liu Dejun on Thursday warned the Philippines that any attempt to encroach on China’s territorial sovereignty is doomed to fail.

    The BOC took action against the recent illegal activities of Philippine vessels in the South China Sea in accordance with the law and professional standards of conduct according to the situation, Liu Dejun said.

    From Sunday to Wednesday, the Philippines sent several vessels to conduct illegal operations in waters adjacent to the Nansha Islands, including Banyue Reef and Jianzhang Reef, in the South China Sea, he said.

    “Philippine vessels have repeatedly committed illegal violations and provocations under the pretext of ‘protecting fisheries’, undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea,” he stressed.

    He stressed that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Banyue and Jianzhang Reefs, and the adjacent waters.

    According to Liu Dejun, the BOC will continue to conduct regular law enforcement operations in waters under China’s jurisdiction to protect China’s national sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. -0-

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Exclusive: China’s Development Opens Unique ‘Window of Opportunity’ for Central Asia — Kyrgyz Political Scientist

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BISHKEK, June 20 /Xinhua/ — The development of modern China opens a unique “window of opportunity” for Central Asia: from industrialization and market expansion to sustainable development and investment in human capital, Kyrgyz political scientist, professor of international relations at Ala-Too International University Kubanychbek Taabaldiev said in a recent exclusive interview with Xinhua.

    “China, given its sustainable development and the weight it has acquired in global politics and economics, is capable of becoming an example in many areas, such as economic modernization, poverty reduction, technological progress and the development of information technology, and the transition from an economy of raw materials supplies to the production of high-tech products,” he noted.

    One of the most important factors for this, according to the political scientist, is the colossal domestic market of China. The countries of Central Asia can increase their supplies to the Chinese market not only of natural raw materials and energy resources, but also of finished goods, including environmentally friendly agricultural products.

    According to K. Taabaldiev, China demonstrates a very high readiness to develop relations with all Central Asian countries. “China takes into account the strategy of the countries of the region as a whole and demonstrates a persistent desire to combine the Belt and Road Initiative with the interests of the five Central Asian countries,” he said, adding that the country also expressed its support for the national development plans of the region.

    According to the expert, the infrastructure projects being implemented in Central Asia stand out especially brightly – the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which should lead to noticeable changes in the logistical structure of the region’s economy.

    As an example in this area, the political scientist also cited the construction of an alternative North-South highway in Kyrgyzstan. “The highway will not only allow the development of Kyrgyzstan’s internal regions, but will also enable many countries to deliver international transit cargo by the shortest route,” he said.

    As K. Taabaldiev emphasized, given the economic growth in the Central Asian countries, China is interested in implementing joint projects in such areas as the implementation of renewable energy sources, initiated a project to develop the digital Silk Road and at the same time emphasizes its interest in the sustainable development of all of Central Asia.

    Speaking about the Treaty on Eternal Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between China and the Central Asian Countries, signed on Tuesday during the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, the expert believes that the document allows the countries of the region and China to jointly create a well-thought-out basis for coordinated strategic planning of joint development.

    “The Astana summit demonstrated a unified spirit of mutual trust among its participants,” he concluded. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Fatal Crash, Millers Flat

    Source: New Zealand Police

    A person has died after a single-vehicle crash on a farm near Millers Flat, Central Otago, overnight.

    Emergency services were called to the property about 10pm after a vehicle rolled.

    Sadly, one person died at the scene. Three others were taken to hospital with minor-to-moderate injuries.

    The cause of the crash is under investigation.

    Police will be providing support to the victim’s family.

    ENDS 

    Issued by Police Media Centre

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Appointments to Genetically Modified Organisms (Control of Release) Expert Group announced

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    Appointments to Genetically Modified Organisms (Control of Release) Expert Group announced 
         In accordance with the Genetically Modified Organisms (Control of Release) Ordinance (Cap. 607), the Expert Group shall consider and advise on the administration of the Ordinance.
     
         The new term of membership of the Expert Group is as follows:
     
    Chairman
    Professor Chow King-lau
     
    Members
    Mr Chan Ka-tung
    Ms Chick Hiu-lai
    Ms Chiu Yuk-lin
    Mr Chong Yan-kit
    Dr Chui Pui-yi
    Professor Jonathan Julio Fong
    Dr Jennifer Go Le-lin*
    Professor Jerome Hui Ho-lam
    Dr Tommy Hui Tin-yan*
    Ms Kiffany Ng Shan-shan
    Dr Angie Ng Ying-sim
    Professor Qiu Jian-wen
    Mr Tse Tsz-fung
    Dr Creany Wong Ka-wai
    Dr Yau Chi-ping
    Assistant Director of Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation (Conservation)
    Assistant Director of Health with Principal Medical and Health Officer as alternate member
    Principal Assistant Secretary for Environment and Ecology (Nature Conservation) with Assistant Secretary for Environment and Ecology (Nature Conservation) 1 as alternate member
     
    *New member
    Issued at HKT 10:00

    NNNN

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements

    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist

    Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China.

    New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack of consultation regarding a partnership agreement and other deals signed with Beijing earlier this year.

    The pause includes $10 million in core sector support, which Brown told parliament this week represents four percent of the country’s budget.

    “[This] has been a consistent component of the Cook Islands budget as part of New Zealand’s contribution, and it is targeted, and has always been targeted, towards the sectors of health, education, and tourism.”

    Brown said he was surprised by the timing of the announcement.

    “Especially Mr Speaker in light of the fact our officials have been in discussions with New Zealand officials to address the areas of concern that they have over our engagements in the agreements that we signed with China.”

    Peters said the Cook Islands government was informed of the funding pause on June 4. He also said it had nothing to do with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon being in China.

    Ensured good outcomes
    Brown said he was sure Luxon could ensure good outcomes for the people of the realm of New Zealand on the back of the Cook Islands state visit and “the goodwill that we’ve generated with the People’s Republic of China”.

    “I have full trust that Prime Minister Luxon has entered into agreements with China that will pose no security threats to the people of the Cook Islands,” he said.

    “Of course, not being privy to or not being consulted on any agreements that New Zealand may enter into with China.”

    The Cook Islands is in free association with New Zealand and governs its own affairs. But New Zealand provides assistance with foreign affairs (upon request), disaster relief, and defence.

    The 2001 Joint Centenary Declaration signed between the two nations requires them to consult each other on defence and security, which Winston Peters said had not been lived up to.

    In a statement on Thursday, the Cook Islands Foreign Affairs and Immigration Ministry said there was a breakdown in the interpretation of the 2001 Joint Centenary Declaration.

    The spokesperson said repairing the relationship requires dialogue where both countries are prepared to consider each other’s concerns.

    ‘Beg forgiveness’
    Former Cook Islands deputy prime minister and prominent lawyer Norman George said Brown “should go on his knees and beg for forgiveness because you can’t rely on China”.

    “[The aid pause] is absolutely a fair thing to do because our Prime Minister betrayed New Zealand and let the government and people of New Zealand down.”

    But not everyone agrees. Rarotongan artist Tim Buchanan said Peters is being a bully.

    “It’s like he’s taken a page out of Donald Trump’s playbook using money to coerce his friends,” Buchanan said.

    “What is it exactly do you want from us Winston? What do you expect us to be doing to appease you?”

    Buchanan said it had been a long road for the Cook Islands to get where it was now, and it seemed New Zealand wanted to knock the country back down.

    Brown did not provide an interview to RNZ Pacific on Thursday but is expected to give an update in Parliament.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements

    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist

    Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China.

    New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack of consultation regarding a partnership agreement and other deals signed with Beijing earlier this year.

    The pause includes $10 million in core sector support, which Brown told parliament this week represents four percent of the country’s budget.

    “[This] has been a consistent component of the Cook Islands budget as part of New Zealand’s contribution, and it is targeted, and has always been targeted, towards the sectors of health, education, and tourism.”

    Brown said he was surprised by the timing of the announcement.

    “Especially Mr Speaker in light of the fact our officials have been in discussions with New Zealand officials to address the areas of concern that they have over our engagements in the agreements that we signed with China.”

    Peters said the Cook Islands government was informed of the funding pause on June 4. He also said it had nothing to do with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon being in China.

    Ensured good outcomes
    Brown said he was sure Luxon could ensure good outcomes for the people of the realm of New Zealand on the back of the Cook Islands state visit and “the goodwill that we’ve generated with the People’s Republic of China”.

    “I have full trust that Prime Minister Luxon has entered into agreements with China that will pose no security threats to the people of the Cook Islands,” he said.

    “Of course, not being privy to or not being consulted on any agreements that New Zealand may enter into with China.”

    The Cook Islands is in free association with New Zealand and governs its own affairs. But New Zealand provides assistance with foreign affairs (upon request), disaster relief, and defence.

    The 2001 Joint Centenary Declaration signed between the two nations requires them to consult each other on defence and security, which Winston Peters said had not been lived up to.

    In a statement on Thursday, the Cook Islands Foreign Affairs and Immigration Ministry said there was a breakdown in the interpretation of the 2001 Joint Centenary Declaration.

    The spokesperson said repairing the relationship requires dialogue where both countries are prepared to consider each other’s concerns.

    ‘Beg forgiveness’
    Former Cook Islands deputy prime minister and prominent lawyer Norman George said Brown “should go on his knees and beg for forgiveness because you can’t rely on China”.

    “[The aid pause] is absolutely a fair thing to do because our Prime Minister betrayed New Zealand and let the government and people of New Zealand down.”

    But not everyone agrees. Rarotongan artist Tim Buchanan said Peters is being a bully.

    “It’s like he’s taken a page out of Donald Trump’s playbook using money to coerce his friends,” Buchanan said.

    “What is it exactly do you want from us Winston? What do you expect us to be doing to appease you?”

    Buchanan said it had been a long road for the Cook Islands to get where it was now, and it seemed New Zealand wanted to knock the country back down.

    Brown did not provide an interview to RNZ Pacific on Thursday but is expected to give an update in Parliament.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University

    Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal.

    The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s expected to start operating in 2026.

    Human rights organisations, international lawyers and some (mostly European) states have long been calling for the establishment of such a tribunal. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, called the establishment of the tribunal:

    an important breakthrough for the international justice community and especially for the millions of Ukrainians who have been harmed by the Russian aggression.

    However, important questions remain about if it could truly hold senior Russian officials accountable.

    So, how will this new special tribunal work, and will it be effective – or necessary?

    How does the special tribunal fill the gaps left by the ICC and ICJ?

    This tribunal is separate to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

    The ICC can prosecute individuals charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Russian war on Ukraine. So far, it has issued arrest warrants against four Russian senior officials, including President Vladimir Putin.

    Because Russia is not a member state to the court, the court can’t exercise legal authority over what’s known in international law as a crime of aggression (when leaders of a state launch or plan a war). For the ICC to be able to exercise this jurisdiction, the aggressor state also must be a member state of the court.

    The ICJ is a different court altogether. It primarily deals with and adjudicates disputes between states, not limited to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. It can’t hold individuals accountable, and can only exercise jurisdiction over a dispute if both states to a dispute agree.

    While the ICC seeks to establish individual criminal responsibility, the ICJ may establish state responsibility for a violation of international law.

    Currently, there are also two cases between Ukraine and Russia before the ICJ.

    Neither deals with the question of the legality of Russia’s use of force in its invasion in February 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia would need to consent to bring this issue before the court.

    So, is a new tribunal necessary?

    Yes, because the crime of aggression currently can’t be addressed by any other international court or tribunal.

    Given the limitations of what the ICJ and ICC can do, a dedicated tribunal seems the obvious solution to hold those responsible for the illegal use of force against Ukraine accountable.

    And it’s not uncommon for specialised tribunals with limited jurisdiction over a specific situation to be created.

    Other historical examples include the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia and the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

    Given the ICC’s lack of jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, the new special tribunal would complement the court’s existing investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Who is running the new tribunal and how will it work?

    The exact content and specifics of this new tribunal will remain unknown until the draft statute of the tribunal is published. That’s a document that outlines details including the tribunal’s jurisdiction, the applicable definition of aggression and how the tribunal will function.

    At this stage, the Council of Europe has confirmed the tribunal will work within its legal framework and principles. It will be funded by an international coalition of supportive states.

    A management committee of members and associate members of the tribunal will be responsible for the election of the tribunal’s judges and prosecutors. The management committee is made up of the Council of Europe’s council of ministers and Ukraine.

    Diplomatic discussions are still ongoing at this point, but the legal process for establishing the special tribunal can begin now.

    Will this special tribunal be more effective?

    Political, legal and practical challenges for the special tribunal remain. It’s unclear if the most senior Russian state officials can and will be able to be brought to trial for the crime of aggression.

    Nothing, so far, suggests the statute of the tribunal will contain an exception to state immunity enjoyed by heads of state, heads of governments and foreign ministers while in power.

    That means these office holders can only be prosecuted if they are no longer in power or the Russian government expressly waives their immunity.

    It’s also unclear whether states will be willing to arrest those sought by the special tribunal.

    The ICC has long faced this challenge trying to get states to act on its arrest warrants.

    Hungary, for instance, did not arrest Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visited in April, despite an ICC arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza.

    For the special tribunal to be effective, according to Oleksandra Matviichuk, it:

    must not become a remote and hollow entity that does not engage with the Ukrainian victims.

    Overall, much remains unclear. Will this new special tribunal be able to hold the likes of Putin accountable for the crime of aggression? Or will it become another empty promise?

    Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective-257823

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI China: New Zealand eases transit rules for Chinese travelers to boost tourism, trade

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    WELLINGTON, June 19 — New Zealand is simplifying transit procedures and lowering costs for Chinese travelers to enhance tourism and trade.

    Starting in November, Chinese passport holders will no longer require a traditional Transit Visa to pass through New Zealand airports. Instead, they will be able to obtain a New Zealand electronic Travel Authority (NZeTA), which is cheaper and faster to process.

    New Zealand Immigration Minister Erica Stanford said on Thursday that Chinese travelers can now be processed in 24 hours for as little as 17 NZ dollars (about 10 U.S. dollars), rather than paying 235 NZ dollars and waiting four days for a transit visa.

    The NZeTA is also valid for up to two years, allowing multiple transits without the need for repeated applications, Stanford said.

    The move comes alongside the announcement of a new air route linking China to South America via Auckland, positioning New Zealand as a key international transit hub.

    Tourism and Hospitality Minister Louise Upston noted that this policy will make transiting through New Zealand a more attractive option for both travelers and airlines.

    The government expects these changes to increase passenger numbers, expand airline capacity, and support the broader goal of doubling the value of tourism exports by 2034.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: China and neighboring countries expand cross-border railways for greater cooperation

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    China and neighboring countries expand cross-border railways for greater cooperation

    BEIJING, June 19 — The railway linking Ganqmod Port in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Mongolia’s Gashuun Sukhait started construction in mid-June, marking the second cross-border railway between the two countries since the first one opened nearly 70 years ago.

    As the global economy becomes increasingly integrated and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to advance, cross-border railway construction between China and its neighboring countries is ushering in new development opportunities.

    Recently, multiple cross-border railway projects, including the Ganqmod-Gashuun Sukhait Railway, have achieved significant milestones. China is steadily building a modern railway network that connects it with neighboring countries such as Mongolia, Russia, Vietnam and Laos, boosting regional links, economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.

    STRENGTHENING REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY

    Planned for completion in 2027, the Chinese section of the Ganqmod-Gashuun Sukhait railway project is invested and being constructed by China Energy Investment Corporation Co., Ltd. (CHN Energy).

    “The new railway is projected to transport approximately 30 million tonnes of cargo annually, significantly enhancing connectivity between the two countries and enabling more efficient transportation of mineral and energy resources,” said Wang Shangjun, chairman of the Ganqmod Railway Investment Co., Ltd. under CHN Energy.

    Beyond the China-Mongolia railway breakthrough, 2025 has witnessed accelerated progress on multiple rail corridors. The mainline construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project entered the substantive construction phase in late April.

    Earlier in the year, Vietnam ratified a project to extend rail connectivity from Vietnam’s Haiphong to the China-Vietnam border. Meanwhile, Thailand approved Phase II of the China-Thailand high-speed rail project, with the tendering process expected to be completed within the year.

    “These cross-border railways serve as vital corridors connecting China northward to Mongolia, westward to Central and West Asia, and southward to Southeast Asia,” said Fan Lijun, director of the BRI research institute at the Inner Mongolia Academy of Social Sciences.

    “Their construction will enhance infrastructure connectivity and economic exchanges among participating countries, while upgrading cross-border logistics, industrial parks, and border trade services. This holds profound significance for advancing regional cooperation and development,” Fan added.

    This vision has been vividly demonstrated across multiple cross-border railway projects. The China-Laos Railway, a model project under the BRI, has transported more than 52.7 million passengers since its launch over three years ago, including over 510,000 cross-border travelers, and carried over 59.4 million tonnes of cargo, with cross-border shipments exceeding 13.7 million tonnes.

    The railway authorities of China and Laos have been actively exploring new models for international transportation. By linking the China-Laos Railway with the China-Europe Railway Express network, they have reduced the rail transit time from Laos, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries to Europe to just 15 days.

    This cross-border freight service now covers the 31 Chinese provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, as well as 19 countries and regions including Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore, with transported goods expanding to over 3,000 categories.

    CATALYST FOR SHARED PROSPERITY

    Yu Chen, a staff member with the Erenhot railway station, has witnessed the remarkable changes in his hometown Erenhot in Inner Mongolia, the Chinese terminus of the first cross-border railway between China and Mongolia.

    “It’s said that in its early years, Erenhot had just one main street, with only three major buildings in the whole area — the train station, the customs office, and the border inspection facility,” Yu said.

    Now, leveraging the cross-border railway, Erenhot has emerged as a pivotal hub city along the BRI, with over 200 logistics companies, a crisscross network of urban streets, and towering high-rises.

    The China-Mongolia railway has not only boosted Erenhot’s development but also driven industrial transformation and upgrading in the hinterland areas of the border port. In a national logistics hub park spanning Erenhot and Ulanqab, another border city in Inner Mongolia, export-oriented processing industries for specialty agricultural products including sunflower seeds, corn, fruits and vegetables, as well as import-processing industries for flaxseed, oats and meat products, are experiencing robust growth.

    “By transforming our geographical advantages into competitiveness in logistics, we have laid a solid foundation for the development of specialty agricultural product industries,” said Zhao Dongyang, director of the economic development bureau under the management committee of the logistics hub park.

    A growing number of cross-border railways are thriving as economic arteries, powering development in cities along their routes. A freight train carrying Russian rapeseed recently arrived at the border residents’ mutual trade zone of Manzhouli, a border city in Inner Mongolia profoundly shaped by the China-Russia railway.

    Upon the cargo’s arrival, Manzhouli Xinfeng Grain and Oil Industry Co., Ltd. immediately initiated the production process of rapeseed oil. “Russian rapeseed boasts unique advantages such as low acid value and high smoke point, which enable the extraction of premium-quality rapeseed oil that is highly favored in China’s edible oil market,” said Yang Zhihong, deputy general manager of the company.

    As China’s largest land port, Manzhouli is evolving from its traditional role as a “transit station” into a regional industrial hub by promoting local processing of grain, oil and timber.

    “By sourcing raw materials through the border residents’ mutual trade channel, we have achieved significant cost reductions — saving approximately 500 yuan (about 69.71 U.S. dollars) per tonne on average, with cumulative savings exceeding 8 million yuan to date,” Yang said.

    According to Xie Ruijie, deputy director of the management committee of the Manzhouli China-Russia mutual trade zone, border trade in Manzhouli had surpassed 100 million yuan as of April 20 this year, with more than 3,600 border residents participating, bringing in over 1 million yuan in income for locals and contributing nearly 2 million yuan in tax revenue to the city.

    DEEPENING PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE TIES

    During the May Day holiday last year, despite the swirling snowflakes on the platform of Ulaanbaatar, capital of Mongolia, Kang Zhenning, chief conductor of the China-Mongolia international passenger train carefully assisted Mongolian passengers returning home after medical treatment in Inner Mongolia’s capital Hohhot.

    To better serve Mongolian passengers, Kang mastered the Mongolian language through studying books and online videos and learning from Mongolian colleagues. He also led his crew in establishing a Mongolian-Chinese bilingual service station onboard, which offers translation services for international travelers.

    “Thanks to the crew’s consistent and attentive service, this train has become like an ‘ambulance’ for patients like me,” said Mongolian passenger Urtu, who frequently takes this train to Hohhot for medical treatment.

    While the China-Mongolia Railway serves as a lifeline for cross-border medical care, many railway services in southern China have become a vibrant corridor for cultural tourism, bringing peoples from China and its neighboring countries closer.

    The waiting hall of Hekou North Railway Station, which is close to the China-Vietnam border, was bustling on an April afternoon. Vietnamese tour guide Hoang Tien waited there with a group of 11 Vietnamese tourists.

    “The high-speed trains here are very punctual,” Hoang told his group, “With the streamlined boarding process, you only need to arrive at the station just 40 minutes before departure.”

    As a frequent visitor to the railway station, Hoang leads tour groups here every few days. He marveled at how the China-Vietnam railway connects Yunnan’s picturesque landscapes, and had observed the growing number of Vietnamese tourists eager to explore China’s natural wonders and cultural heritage.

    In 2024, the number of Vietnamese tour groups arriving at and departing from Hekou Port increased by 40.7 percent from 2023. In the first three months of this year, more than 10,000 group tourists traveled from Hekou North Railway Station to other Chinese destinations, a surge of more than 180 percent over the same period last year.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: China slams Philippines for illegal operations in South China Sea

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    A China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson on Thursday warned the Philippines that any attempts to infringe upon China’s territorial sovereignty are futile.

    The CCG has taken measures against the recent illegal activities of Philippine vessels in the South China Sea in accordance with the law and the professional code of conduct, said Liu Dejun, the CCG spokesperson.

    From Sunday to Wednesday, the Philippines dispatched multiple vessels to carry out illegal operations near Banyue Jiao and Jianzhang Jiao of the Nansha Islands in the South China Sea, according to Liu.

    “The Philippine vessels have repeatedly engaged in illegal infringement and provocations under the pretext of ‘fishery protection,’ undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea,” he said.

    He emphasized that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Banyue Jiao and Jianzhang Jiao, as well as their adjacent waters.

    The CCG will continue conducting regular law enforcement operations in the waters under China’s jurisdiction to safeguard China’s national sovereignty and maritime rights, Liu said.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: SIFF Project 2025 announces winners, expands support for filmmakers

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Winners of the SIFF Project honors were revealed on June 17 during the 27th Shanghai International Film Festival (SIFF), concluding the four-day event aimed at supporting young filmmakers in bringing their projects to fruition.

    Winners of the SIFF Project honors pose for a group photo on stage with the jury during the 27th Shanghai International Film Festival, June 17, 2025. [Photo courtesy of SIFF Organizing Committee]

    The Annual Focus Committee was chaired by director, screenwriter and producer Wen Muye, with producer-screenwriter Ying Luojia and director-screenwriter Anselm Chan serving as members. Over four days, the committee reviewed projects for creativity, artistic quality and market potential.

    During the presentations, committee members discussed projects with teams, offering feedback on story, visuals, themes and pacing. They highlighted each project’s strengths in stylistic vision and direction, and offered specific suggestions for improving character development and contemporary relevance where needed.

    After deliberation, the committee announced five main awards. The best genre project honor went to Cai Kunyu’s “Dog Bite Dog.” The annual focus honor was awarded to Yuan Yuan’s “Heading South.” The best talent project went to Guo Xiaodong’s “A Perfect Life.” “Wintertime in a Small Town” by Wu Chu received the most creative project award, and best work-in-progress project went to Emetraj Memet’s “Good Drink Pub.” The jury also gave a special honor to Dong Jie’s “Zoom In, Zoom Out” for outstanding achievement.

    SIFF Project was held in Shanghai from June 14 to 17, featuring public presentations of 19 selected projects and discussions with 34 shortlisted entries. The event drew strong industry participation, with many sessions fully booked in advance and additional meetings requested. In total, 175 production, investment and distribution companies took part, resulting in 636 project meetings.

    This year’s SIFF Project received 534 valid submissions, a 39% increase from last year. The event introduced a new genre project section to encourage innovation within established formats, attracting entries in comedy, adventure, road movies and other genres.

    After the selection process, 34 entries were shortlisted, highlighting a broad thematic range that includes explorations of history and traditional culture, the integration of technology and modern life, intimate personal stories and examinations of broader societal issues.

    Among the notable projects beyond this year’s award winners are “General’s Order,” a historical costume drama; “He Who Longs to Travel the World,” which delves into digitally constructed realities; and “Huadan Rapper Go Go Go,” a work that blends Chinese opera with rap. Several projects draw on personal stories, such as “Test of Confucius,” inspired by art exam experiences, “The Daughter from Shanghai,” which traces a family’s history, and “The Last Firework,” set in early 2000s Beijing.

    Since its launch in 2007, SIFF Project has seen 112 projects move into production. Of these, 77 have screened at international film festivals, 56 have competed in or been showcased at competitive feature festivals, and 74 have secured theatrical releases worldwide.

    This year, SIFF Project partnered with eight organizations to provide a total of 1.75 million yuan ($243,000) in cash and services for selected projects. Mahua FunAge and Damai Entertainment each awarded 150,000 yuan to a project in early development, with “Dog Bite Dog” receiving the Mahua FunAge award and “Find Your Way” winning the Damai Entertainment award.

    Phenom Films, Mofei Pictures and Image Forest awarded post-production services to “The Daughter from Shanghai,” “Good Drink Pub” and “Test of Confucius,” respectively. InBetween granted design services to “He Who Longs to Travel the World” and “Good Drink Pub,” while Aputure will provide lighting equipment to “Snow Falling on Cedars.” China Film Co., Ltd. awarded venue and location services to “Back to Basics.”

    Chen Guo, managing director of Shanghai International Film and TV Events, emphasized SIFF’s ongoing commitment to Asia, Chinese cinema and emerging talent. After three decades of development, the festival has established a progressive talent cultivation system that supports filmmakers at all stages of their careers through a range of awards and initiatives.

    “As a crucial part of this system, SIFF Project continues to connect all stages of the creative process, supporting young filmmakers’ growth and fostering a healthy ecosystem from project incubation to industry integration,” she said.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: Tech innovation key as foreign investors bet on China

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    China’s surging technology innovation is rewriting the playbook for foreign investors, with the country’s booming tech sector having reshaped expectations regarding its long-term growth potential.

    The latest example came as Goldman Sachs unveiled a list of what it has identified as China’s Prominent 10, a move reminiscent of the Magnificent Seven, a group of high-performing and influential stocks in the U.S. tech sector.

    The top 10 Chinese stocks, most of which are affiliated with tech giants, are expected to significantly expand their share of China’s equity market over the coming two years.

    Among these 10 are internet behemoth Tencent, e-commerce giant Alibaba, smartphone maker Xiaomi, electric car manufacturer BYD, digital shopping platform Meituan and pharmaceutical company Hengrui.

    They “embody the theme of AI/Tech development, self-sufficiency, going global, services and new forms of consumption, and China’s improving shareholder returns,” according the investment bank’s research findings.

    Behind the stock picks spreadsheets of Wall Street economists lies a deeper recalibration, with those observers who once declared “peak China” now overhauling their models, and transitioning to a view which sees tech innovation as driving a new wave of substantial expansion in China.

    Last month, MSCI added five A-share stocks, including VeriSilicon, Baili-Pharm and APT Medical, to its China Index. These new constituents are mostly in tech and biotech sectors, reflecting global index compilers’ recognition of China’s economic transformation.

    Top global investors, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have turned bullish on China’s market — driven by global investor interest in Chinese equities due to the country’s AI push, led by DeepSeek. This month, notably, major investment banks have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy.

    As of May 29, the Hang Seng Tech Index had surged over 40 percent year on year, outperforming major global tech indices. Of the top ten most actively traded Hong Kong stocks, seven are Hang Seng Tech constituents, with the three most active being Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi.

    China’s AI breakthroughs highlight its supply chain and innovation strengths, supported by a robust ecosystem of infrastructure, data, talent and energy, said Xing Ziqiang, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for China.

    “China’s tech innovations are shifting from isolated breakthroughs to systematic integration, with many fields experiencing their ‘DeepSeek moment’ and some emerging tech firms achieving a global presence from the start,” said Wu Qing, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, at a forum in east China’s Shanghai on Wednesday.

    Additionally, tech stars like DeepSeek and Huawei weren’t included in Goldman Sachs’ stock picks only because they’re not publicly traded. Beyond these giants, many Chinese startups are rising to prominence. China now has more than 400 unicorn companies, nearly one-third of the global total.

    The country’s recent economic data also support such an outlook.

    Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China’s high-tech manufacturing added value grew by 8.6 percent in May, outpacing the overall growth of large-scale industrial added value by 2.8 percentage points.

    Within this sector, production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots and new energy vehicles increased by 40.0, 35.5 and 31.7 percent, respectively.

    China is not only the largest market but arguably also the world’s innovation hub, propelling cost efficiencies and next-gen robotics development, said a Morgan Stanley research note recently.

    “It is becoming apparent that national support for ’embodied AI’ may be far greater in China than in any other nation, driving continued innovation and capital formation,” said Zhong Sheng, Morgan Stanley’s head of industrials research.

    “The continuing AI and technology breakthroughs have rewritten the narrative and brightened the growth prospects” for China’s privately-owned enterprises, who also lead the charge of “China’s ‘Going Global’ ambition,” according to the Goldman Sachs report.

    This year, overseas demand for China’s AI-driven tech products has surged. Data from AliExpress reveals that during its March promotion, sales of AR/VR glasses, led by brands like XREAL and Rokid, had jumped 600 percent from the previous month.

    “Last year, our AR glasses’ overseas business accounted for nearly 70 percent of total sales, with overseas sales growing by 30 percent year on year,” said Zhang Longjie, global sales head of consumer-grade AR glasses firm XREAL.

    Despite global uncertainties, China’s high-tech product exports performed strongly in the first five months of 2025 — rising 6.1 percent year on year in U.S.-dollar terms, according to the General Administration of Customs data.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-Evening Report: West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland

    CUHRIG/Getty

    This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room Watt presumably had to woo hardest: Western Australia’s miners.

    Last year, the WA mining lobby mounted an ultimately successful campaign opposing proposed changes to national environment laws, and the plan to set up an environmental protection authority. State premier Roger Cook also lobbied Prime Minister Anthony Albanese directly.

    Watt has pledged to revive the reform process and on Thursday claimed a compromise could be reached. The existing laws, he said, are “not working for the environment, and they are not working for business”.

    Whether his efforts will be enough to overcome the scepticism of the mining industry remains to be seen. These companies have influence – and they will use it if they see new laws as a threat.

    The mining state

    The mining industry dominates WA economically, politically and socially. WA’s mining sector is substantially larger than the mining interests in any other Australian state. Underground lie huge reserves of iron ore, gas, gold, lithium and many other resources.

    The sector funnelled A$267 billion into the Australian economy in 2023–24 through salaries, royalties and taxes. About $60 billion directly flowed to Western Australians in wages and salaries.

    The leaders of WA mining companies see themselves, by and large, as doing economically vital work.

    I have interviewed many WA mining executives for my doctorate, which is currently underway. One clear common narrative emerged: they saw mining as a national good. They believed their companies brought wealth and prosperity to communities, built infrastructure, and funnelled money into state and federal treasuries.

    The justification is powerful. It underpins the way those in the industry see their work – and how they respond to any threat, perceived or otherwise.

    It also dates back over a century. The link between WA resources and prosperity originates from the 1890s WA gold rush, which transformed the fortunes of the state. This self image has been nurtured through successive resource booms, from gold to iron ore to natural gas and more gold.

    Many company executives see any duplication of environmental approvals as time-consuming, unproductive and economically damaging. A 2023 WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry report suggested “green tape” (approval delays) was threatening 40% of mining proposals in the pipeline.

    Miners and their political backers often frame the industry as environmentally positive, particularly for resources vital to the green energy transition such as lithium, rare earth elements and – more controversially – gas.

    Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King – who is West Australian – regularly draws this link. As she said in 2023:

    let me be clear, the global clean energy transition will need more mining, not less […] the road to net zero runs through the Australian resources sector.

    Mining is vital to Western Australia.
    Inc/Shutterstock

    Wielding influence

    WA miners are represented by well-organised and well-resourced lobbying bodies such as the Chamber of Minerals and Energy WA, the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, and the Minerals Council of Australia.

    These groups maintain relationships with politicians at both state and federal levels, regardless of which party is in power.

    Broadly, their goals are to promote the continued expansion of resource projects (minerals, oil and gas) under conditions most advantageous to industry interests.

    Mining companies use these industry lobby groups to support or critique government policy and push for changes. They exert influence through targeted lobbying, close relationships with elected officials and political candidates, and direct engagement with federal processes.

    What happens when the sector sees a potential threat from policymakers in Canberra? Often, the mining companies unify against it.

    For example, WA miners were prominent in the 2010 campaign against efforts by the Rudd government to introduce a super profits tax on mining.

    Why WA miners oppose nature law reform

    A tax is one thing. But what did the WA miners see as the key problems in the environmental reforms?

    One issue was a perceived contradiction between the federal government’s intention to streamline developmental approvals and introduce a federal Environmental Protection Agency, while failing to deal with existing duplication between state and federal processes.

    The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies lobby group gave another reason in a submission to government: the proposed independence of the EPA would remove the discretionary power of the minister.

    Rather than an independent federal EPA, they pushed for a model similar to the WA version – the advice of which the minister can overrule. The group also warned the laws would impede the global competitiveness of the mining industry and hinder investment.

    The state government echoed these statements, calling the reforms an overreach that would stifle economic development.

    This alignment of government and industry messaging shows how closely their interests are intertwined.

    Premier Roger Cook leaves no ambiguity about this. Ahead of this year’s WA and federal elections, Cook warned the “latte sippers” over east:

    do not for a moment think that we will stand by idly and allow you to damage our economy because, ultimately, it will damage your standard of living.

    Is a deal possible?

    Across Australia, there is broad support for environmental law reform, because the current national laws are seen as not fit for purpose.

    Murray Watt came to the role of environment minister with a reputation as a fixer. The question now is, what will he trade to get the miners on side?

    The industry will be cautious and will insist on much more detail about any changes. It’s possible a deal could be struck. But we can expect to continue to see very strong pushback if Watt tries to expand federal powers into what is seen as state responsibilities.

    The industry will also expect greater federal resourcing for delivery of timely approvals. Nationally important industries don’t like to wait.

    Diane Dowdell is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining (CSRM) within the Sustainable Minerals Institute at the University of Queensland. She was the recipient of an industry scholarship from Newcrest Mining for her PhD research. She works for SLR Consulting Pty Ltd. Diane is a fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM) and the Environment Institute of Australia and New Zealand (EIANZ).

    ref. West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time? – https://theconversation.com/west-australian-miners-flexed-their-muscle-to-block-a-federal-epa-last-year-will-it-be-different-this-time-257892

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Missing man, Kenmure, Dunedin.

    Source: New Zealand Police

    Have you seen Peter?

    Police are asking for the public’s assistance to locate missing Peter, a 77-year-old man.

    He was last seen in the Kenmure area of Dunedin at about 10.30pm on Thursday 19 June (yesterday).

    He was wearing grey trousers, black or navy merino top and black slip on shoes.

    Peter may also have a jacket and may be wearing a beanie, but this is unconfirmed.

    If you have seen Peter, or have any information on his whereabouts, please contact Police on 111.

    You can use the reference number P062923985.

    ENDS

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Simon Birmingham appointed as ABA CEO

    Source: Premier of Victoria

    Former Federal Finance Minister and Senate Leader, The Hon. Simon Birmingham, will join the Australian Banking Association as Chief Executive Officer.

    ABA Chair and National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine today announced Mr Birmingham’s appointment, replacing retiring CEO, The Hon. Anna Bligh AC.

    “We are delighted to have Simon lead our industry and help ensure Australian banks continue making the right decisions for customers and the broader economy,” Mr Irvine said.

    “He is a recognised leader who has had deep involvement in significant and long-lasting policy decisions and actions throughout his career that have helped to shape our country.

    “Simon’s ability to navigate difficult and complex environments, bringing together varied interests and perspectives, makes him ideal for this role. He will be a sensible, consistent and respected voice on behalf of the industry.”

    Mr Birmingham served in the Australian Parliament as a Liberal Senator for South Australia from 2007 to 2025. His roles included Minister for Finance, Leader of the Government in the Senate, Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment, Minister for Education and Training and Manager of Government Business in the Senate. He was Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2022 until his retirement from the Senate.

    Prior to politics, he worked with the Winemakers’ Federation of Australia and the Australian Hotels Association. He is currently ANZ’s Head of Asia Pacific Engagement and Chairman, South Australia. He holds a Master of Business Administration from the University of Adelaide.

    “I thank the ABA board for their vote of confidence in my ability to lead this industry. As the ABA CEO I will always put trust in Australia’s banking system first, pursue a competitive regulatory environment, and work to ensure innovation in banking strengthens Australia’s financial interests. I also want to acknowledge ANZ for their support and encouragement through this process,” Mr Birmingham said.

    “Banks are central to our economy, essential to businesses of all sizes and entrusted by Australians with their personal financial wellbeing. From trade and capital flows from large and international banks, to the choice offered by smaller banks, regional banks and customer-owned organisations, a strong, healthy, customer-focused financial services sector is vital for all Australians.”

    Mr Birmingham will start on 18 August. Ms Bligh, who announced in February that she would retire after eight years as ABA CEO, will finish on 22 August.

    “Anna has had a remarkable and lasting impact on this industry and how we look after our customers,” Mr Irvine said. We are enormously grateful for her time advocating for customers, particularly the disadvantaged, across financial services.”

    For more information, visit the ABA’s website here.

    Contact:  Mark Alexander, National Australia Bank (as ABA Chair bank), 0412 171 447

    Topics

    SEE ALL TOPICS

    Media Enquiries

    For all media enquiries, please contact the NAB Media Line on 03 7035 5015

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI China: China slams Philippines for illegal operations in South China Sea 2025-06-20 08:47:46 A China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson on Thursday warned the Philippines that any attempts to infringe upon China’s territorial sovereignty are futile.

    Source: People’s Republic of China – Ministry of National Defense

      BEIJING, June 19 (Xinhua) — A China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson on Thursday warned the Philippines that any attempts to infringe upon China’s territorial sovereignty are futile.

      The CCG has taken measures against the recent illegal activities of Philippine vessels in the South China Sea in accordance with the law and the professional code of conduct, said Liu Dejun, the CCG spokesperson.

      From Sunday to Wednesday, the Philippines dispatched multiple vessels to carry out illegal operations near Banyue Jiao and Jianzhang Jiao of the Nansha Islands in the South China Sea, according to Liu.

      “The Philippine vessels have repeatedly engaged in illegal infringement and provocations under the pretext of ‘fishery protection,’ undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea,” he said.

      He emphasized that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Banyue Jiao and Jianzhang Jiao, as well as their adjacent waters.

      The CCG will continue conducting regular law enforcement operations in the waters under China’s jurisdiction to safeguard China’s national sovereignty and maritime rights, Liu said.

    loading…

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: SA Police spits the dummy on young driver offending

    Source: New South Wales – News

    A new campaign targeting young drivers launches today, highlighting the life-changing consequences of committing road safety offences.

    The campaign message, ‘Lost your licence? Sucks to be you,’ highlights the lifestyle regression young drivers face if they lose their licence.

    Last year 81 per cent of drivers who receive an Immediate Loss of Licence penalties were young drivers (16-24-year-olds).

    SA Police State Operations Service Assistant Commissioner Ian Parrott said becoming a new driver should be a liberating time, but it comes with serious responsibilities.

    “If a young driver loses their licence, the excitement of driving themselves to work, sport and social events will go back to relying on parents and public transport again – and that sucks,” he said.

    “In addition to losing personal freedoms, young drivers should be aware of the risks of causing a loss of life or serious injuries from unsafe driving.

    “Sadly, fatal and serious injury crashes resulting from at-fault young drivers is overrepresented in South Australia.”

    In 2024, young drivers found to be at-fault in crashes, caused 11 deaths, making up 12 per cent of all lives lost on the roads and caused 100 serious injuries.

    Minister for Police, Stephen Mullighan MP said this campaign will send a clear message to young male drivers.

    “Young men are overrepresented in serious and fatal crashes which is why this campaign is deliberately targeting that cohort of drivers.

    “Getting your driver’s licence is an exciting time that gives young people more freedom but it also comes with enormous responsibility.

    “Losing a driver’s license can have big impacts on a young person’s professional and personal life so I strongly urge drivers to abide by the road rules and take care when driving.”

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Security: Pacific Partnership 2025 Conducts Mission Stop in Suva, Fiji, June 14, 2025 [Image 6 of 6]

    Source: United States Navy (Logistics Group Western Pacific)

    Issued by: on


    SUVA, Fiji (June 14, 2025) U.S. Navy Lt. Corey Day, right, an entomologist assigned to Navy Medicine Readiness Training Command, and Lt. j.g. Derek Chipmon, left, a public health planner with the Pacific Partnership 25 (PP-25) team, are given an apiary tour by a local beekeeper in Suva, Fiji, during PP-25, June 14, 2025. Now in its 21st iteration, the Pacific Partnership series is the largest annual multinational humanitarian assistance and disaster management preparedness mission conducted in the Indo-Pacific. Pacific Partnership works collaboratively with host and partner nations to enhance regional interoperability and disaster response capabilities, increase security and stability in the region, and foster new and enduring friendships in the Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Moises Sandoval/Released)

    Date Taken: 06.14.2025
    Date Posted: 06.18.2025 23:14
    Photo ID: 9123241
    VIRIN: 250614-N-ED646-2596
    Resolution: 8394×5595
    Size: 15.59 MB
    Location: SUVA, FJ

    Web Views: 3
    Downloads: 0

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    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Pacific Partnership 2025 Concludes Mission Stop in Suva, Fiji, June 16, 2025 [Image 1 of 9]

    Source: United States Navy (Logistics Group Western Pacific)

    Issued by: on


    SUVA, Fiji (June 16, 2025) Capt. Mark B. Stefanik, left, mission commander of Pacific Partnership 2025, greets Mr. Samuela Togenavanua, local tribe leader of Suva, during a ribbon-cutting ceremony at Waiqanake District School in Suva, Fiji, June 16, 2025. Now in its 21st iteration, the Pacific Partnership series is the largest annual multinational humanitarian assistance and disaster management preparedness mission conducted in the Indo-Pacific. Pacific Partnership works collaboratively with host and partner nations to enhance regional interoperability and disaster response capabilities, increase security and stability in the region, and foster new and enduring friendships in the Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Moises Sandoval/Released)

    Date Taken: 06.16.2025
    Date Posted: 06.19.2025 21:08
    Photo ID: 9123894
    VIRIN: 250616-N-ED646-6545
    Resolution: 8640×5760
    Size: 7.19 MB
    Location: SUVA, FJ

    Web Views: 1
    Downloads: 0

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    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Pacific Partnership 2025 Concludes Mission Stop in Suva, Fiji, June 16, 2025 [Image 7 of 9]

    Source: United States Navy (Logistics Group Western Pacific)

    Issued by: on


    SUVA, Fiji (June 16, 2025) Capt. Mark B. Stefanik, left, mission commander of Pacific Partnership 2025 (PP-25), presents a commemorative gift to Mr. Samuela Togenavanua, local tribe leader of Suva, during a ribbon-cutting ceremony at Waiqanake District School as part of PP-25 in Suva, Fiji, June 16, 2025. Now in its 21st iteration, the Pacific Partnership series is the largest annual multinational humanitarian assistance and disaster management preparedness mission conducted in the Indo-Pacific. Pacific Partnership works collaboratively with host and partner nations to enhance regional interoperability and disaster response capabilities, increase security and stability in the region, and foster new and enduring friendships in the Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Moises Sandoval/Released)

    Date Taken: 06.16.2025
    Date Posted: 06.19.2025 21:08
    Photo ID: 9123901
    VIRIN: 250616-N-ED646-7511
    Resolution: 8640×5760
    Size: 7.98 MB
    Location: SUVA, FJ

    Web Views: 1
    Downloads: 0

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    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Pacific Partnership 2025 Concludes Mission Stop in Suva, Fiji, June 16, 2025 [Image 7 of 9]

    Source: United States Navy (Logistics Group Western Pacific)

    Issued by: on


    SUVA, Fiji (June 16, 2025) Capt. Mark B. Stefanik, left, mission commander of Pacific Partnership 2025 (PP-25), presents a commemorative gift to Mr. Samuela Togenavanua, local tribe leader of Suva, during a ribbon-cutting ceremony at Waiqanake District School as part of PP-25 in Suva, Fiji, June 16, 2025. Now in its 21st iteration, the Pacific Partnership series is the largest annual multinational humanitarian assistance and disaster management preparedness mission conducted in the Indo-Pacific. Pacific Partnership works collaboratively with host and partner nations to enhance regional interoperability and disaster response capabilities, increase security and stability in the region, and foster new and enduring friendships in the Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Moises Sandoval/Released)

    Date Taken: 06.16.2025
    Date Posted: 06.19.2025 21:08
    Photo ID: 9123901
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    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-Evening Report: Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran

    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

    The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic.

    Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling mid-air refuelling, bombs and an array of intelligence.

    If successful they will destroy or, more likely, destabilise the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz and possibly the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, causing them to vibrate and spin uncontrollably, generating centrifugal forces that could rupture containment systems.

    Spinning at more than 50,000 rpm it wouldn’t take much of a shockwave from a blast or some other act of sabotage to do this.

    There may be about half a tonne of enriched uranium and several tonnes of lower-grade material underground.

    If a cascade of bunker-busting bombs like the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators got through, the heat generated would be in the hundreds, even thousands, of degrees Celsius. This would destroy the centrifuges, converting the uranium hexafluoride gas into a toxic aerosol, leading to serious radiological contamination over a wide area.

    The head of the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, warned repeatedly of the dangers over the past few days. How many people would be killed, contaminated or forced to evacuate should not have to be calculated — it should be avoided at all cost.

    Divided opinions
    Some people think this attack is a very good idea; some think this is an act of madness by two rogue states.

    On June 18, Israeli media were reporting that the US had rushed an aerial armada loaded with bunker busters to Israel while the US continued its sham denials of involvement in the war.

    Analysts Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares warned this week of “Israel bringing the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon in pursuit of its illegal and extremist aims”.  They point out that for some decades now Netanyahu has warned that Iran is weeks or even days away from having the bomb, begging successive presidents for permission to wage Judeo-Christian jihad.

    In Donald Trump — the MAGA Peace Candidate — he finally got his green light.

    The centrifugal forces destabilising the Iranian state
    The other — and possibly more significant — centrifugal force that has been unleashed is a hybrid attack on the Iranian state itself.  The Americans, Israelis and their European allies hope to trigger regime change.

    There are many Iranians inside and outside the country who would welcome such a development.  Other Iranians suggest they should be careful of what they wish for, pointing to the human misery that follows, as night follows day, wherever post 9/11 America’s project to bring “democracy, goodness and niceness” leads.  If you can’t quickly think of half a dozen examples, this must be your first visit to Planet Earth.

    Iranian news presenter Sahar Emami during the Israeli attack on state television which killed three media workers . . . Killing journalists is both an Israeli speciality and a war crime. Image: AJ screenshot APR

    Is regime change in Iran possible?
    So, are the Americans and Israelis on to something or not? This week prominent anti-regime writer Sohrab Ahmari added a caveat to his long-standing call for an end to the regime.  Ahmari, an Iranian, who is the US editor of the geopolitical analysis platform UnHerd said:  “The potential nightmare scenarios are as numerous as they are appalling: regime collapse that leads not to the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty and the ascent to the Peacock Throne of its chubby dauphin, Reza, but warlordism and ethno-sectarian warfare that drives millions of refugees into Europe.

    “Or a Chinese intervention in favour of a crucial energy partner and anchor of the new Eurasian bloc led by Beijing . . .  A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Persian Gulf monarchies.”

    Despite these risks, there are indeed Iranians who are cheering for Uncle Bibi (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu).  Some have little sympathy for the Palestinians because their government poured millions into supporting Hamas and Hezbollah — money that could have eased hardship inside Iran, caused, it must be added, by both the US-imposed sanctions and the regime’s own mismanagement, some say corruption.

    As I pointed out in an article The West’s War on Iran shortly after the Israelis launched the war: the regime appears to have a core support base of around 20 percent.  This was true in 2018 when I last visited Iran and was still the case in the most recent polling I could find.

    I quoted an Iranian contact who shortly after the attack told me they had scanned reactions inside Iran and found people were upset, angry and overwhelmingly supportive of the government at this critical moment.  Like many, I suggested Iranians would — as typically happens when countries are attacked — rally round the flag.  Shortly after the article was published this statement was challenged by other Iranians who dispute that there will be any “rallying to the flag” — as that is the flag of the Islamic Republic and a great many Iranians are sick to the back teeth of it.

    Some others demur:

    “The killing of at least 224 Iranians has once again significantly damaged Israel’s claim that it avoids targeting civilians,” Dr Shirin Saeidi, author of Women and the Islamic Republic, an associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, told The New Arab on June 16.  “Israel’s illegal attack on the Iranian people will definitely not result in a popular uprising against the Iranian state. On the contrary, Iranians are coming together behind the Islamic Republic.”

    To be honest, I can’t discern who is correct. In the last few of days I have also had contact with people inside Iran (all these contacts must, for obvious reasons, be anonymous).  One of them welcomed the attack on the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps).  I also got this message relayed to me from someone else in Iran as a response to my article:

    “Some Iranians are pro-regime and have condemned Israeli attacks and want the government to respond strongly. Some Iranians are pro-Israel and happy that Israel has attacked and killed some of their murderers and want regime change, [but the] majority of Iranians dislike both sides.

    They dislike the regime in Iran, and they are patriotic so they don’t want a foreign country like Israel invading them and killing people. They feel hopeless and defenceless as they know both sides have failed or will fail them.”

    Calculating the incalculable: regime survival or collapse?
    Only a little over half of Iran is Persian. Minorities include Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis, Turkmen, Armenians and one of the region’s few post-Nakba Jewish congregations outside of Israel today.

    Mossad, MI6 and various branches of the US state have poured billions into opposition groups, including various monarchist factions, but from a distance they appear fragmented. The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) armed opposition group has been an irritant but so far not a major disruptor.

    The most effective terrorist attacks inside Iran have been launched by Israel, the US and the British — including the assassination of a string of Iranian peace negotiators, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, nuclear scientists and their families, and various regime figures.

    How numerous the active strands of anti-regime elements are is hard to estimate. Equally hard to calculate is how many will move into open confrontation with the regime. Conversely, how unified, durable — or brittle — is the regime? How cohesive is the leadership of the IRGC and the Basij militias? Will they work effectively together in the trying times ahead? In particular, how successful has the CIA, MI6 and Mossad been at penetrating their structures and buying generals?

    Both Iran’s nuclear programme and its government — in fact, the whole edifice and foundation of the Islamic Republic — is at the beginning of the greatest stress test of its existence.  If the centrifugal forces prove too great, I can’t help but think of the words of William Butler Yeats:

    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

    The best lack all conviction, while the worst   

    Are full of passionate intensity.

    Peace and prosperity to all the people of Iran.  And let’s never forget the people of Palestine as they endure genocide.

    Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz