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Category: Asia Pacific

  • MIL-Evening Report: Post-election tax reform is the key to reversing Australia’s growing wealth divide

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Hodgson, Professor, Curtin Law School and Curtin Business School, Curtin University

    Federal elections always offer the opportunity for a reset. Whoever wins the May 3 election should consider a much needed revamp of the tax system, which is no longer fit for purpose.

    The biggest challenge that should be addressed through tax reform is the level of inequality in Australian society.

    The five-yearly Intergenerational Reports lay bare the intergenerational squeeze. The future burden of supporting the ageing population will increasingly fall on younger Australians who generally don’t enjoy the same financial wellbeing of previous generations.

    But there is also rising inequality within generations. Not all younger Australians can rely on inherited wealth, including the bank of mum and dad. And superannuation balances at retirement vary wildly, given they are tied to work history.

    Proper systemic tax reform would play a crucial role building a fairer society.

    Reform freeze

    But to define what is meant by tax reform, we need to think about some of the big picture concerns that affect our economy.

    Arguably we have not successfully pursued a tax reform agenda since the introduction of the GST in 2000. Various governments have changed the tax rates, but that doesn’t constitute genuine reform.

    The Henry Review, commissioned by the Rudd government, set out the long-term horizon for reform – including resource taxes and road user charges for the transition to a net-zero economy. However, the Henry blueprint has not been adopted by any succeeding government.

    Politicians like to boast of “reform agendas”. Despite the political rhetoric, the tax system has not yet adapted to the 21st century.

    Wealth inequality

    The biggest gap in our tax base relates to the concessional taxation of wealth and assets, which is an area ripe for reform.

    According to the Treasury, the top six revenue losers all relate to superannuation, capital gains and negative gearing. In 2024–25, the estimated revenue foregone for these concessions are:

    • $29 billion for the concessional taxation of employer superannuation contributions

    • $27 billion for the main residence Capital Gains Tax exemption (discount component)

    • $26 billion for rental deductions (this is partly offset by rental income)

    • $24.5 billion for main residence Capital Gains Tax exemption

    • $22.73 billion for CGT discount for individuals and trusts

    • $22.2 billion for the concessional taxation of superannuation earnings

    The distributional analysis for superannuation and the Capital Gains Tax discount shows the greatest benefit goes to older taxpayers in the higher earnings brackets. So wealth inequality is perpetuated.

    Addressing these overgenerous concessions to broaden the tax base should be the starting point for any meaningful reform in this country.

    Taking another look at death duties, which were abolished from the late 1970s, should also be considered.

    Death duties were applied to assets transferred to beneficiaries on death. If they were reimposed with a starting threshold set at an appropriate level, they would limit the intergenerational transfer of wealth, which is generating much of the inequity.

    Wealth creation tools

    The Capital Gains Tax discount was introduced following the 1999 Ralph Review to direct productive capital into Australian businesses.

    The 50% discount sparked the boom in residential investment, which combined with negative gearing, has supercharged the inefficiencies in our housing market.

    Superannuation is another wealth-creation tool. Again, the design of superannuation, whereby tax was paid at 15% on the three stages of contributions – investment, earnings and withdrawal – was subverted in search of simplicity in 2007 when the Howard government exempted superannuation withdrawals from tax.

    Case study

    By comparison, the age pension is taxable, if the recipient earns other income. So too are earnings from work allowed under Centrelink rules. This not only allows estate planning advantages, but creates an unfair outcome for retirees who have not had the opportunity to accumulate substantial balances.

    Consider the cases of “Jean” and “Kim”, who are both single homeowners aged 68.

    Jean has no financial assets and receives the full pension of $1,194 per fortnight plus $512 per fortnight from part-time work. She has a taxable income of $43,816 per annum and, after tax offsets, pays $2,595 in tax including $209.70 medicare levy.

    Kim has a superannuation balance of $880,000 and draws a super pension of $44,000. Kim is not eligible for the pension, but pays no tax and no medicare levy.

    Is our tax system really delivering a fair go for all Australians?

    Tax relief is not reform

    Ahead of election day, both the government and opposition are promising tax handouts. Labor is offering top-up tax cuts starting July 1 2026. The coalition says it will temporarily halve the fuel excise.

    But meaningful reform will not be achieved by politicians trading off various interest groups to win votes.

    Nor do we need yet another review: many of the solutions to Australia’s tax problem were identified by the Henry Review 15 years ago.

    And we must avoid cherry-picking incentives that lead to perverse outcomes. For example, cutting fuel excise will slow down the transition to a net zero economy.

    Consensus needed

    Whoever forms government after the election could build a coalition of business and community sector leaders to seek consensus and pursue holistic reform. The focus must be on addressing the inequality that is emerging as a challenge to the economy and our way of life.

    As Ken Henry recently stated, successive governments have fuelled inequality by failing to do three things

    one, manage financial risks arising from the erosion of the tax base; two, maintain the integrity of the tax system; and three, have regard to intergenerational equity.

    Without significant tax reform, Australia’s wealth divide will continue to deepen with young people and future generations left to suffer the brunt.

    This is the sixth article in our special series, Australia’s Policy Challenges. You can read the other articles here

    Helen Hodgson has received funding from the ARC, AHURI and CPA Australia. Helen is the Chair of the Social Policy Committee and a Director of the National Foundation for Australian Women (NFAW). Helen was a Member of the WA Legislative Council in WA from 1997 to 2001, elected as an Australian Democrat. She is not a current member of any political party. She is a Registered Tax Agent and a member of the SMSF Association, CPA Australia and The Tax Institute. Helen has superannuation with Unisuper and jointly owns positively geared rental properties.

    – ref. Post-election tax reform is the key to reversing Australia’s growing wealth divide – https://theconversation.com/post-election-tax-reform-is-the-key-to-reversing-australias-growing-wealth-divide-252177

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-Evening Report: Strongmen, Daggy Dads and State Daddies: how different styles of political masculinity play into Australian elections

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Blair Williams, Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash University

    Australian politics has historically been a male domain with an overwhelmingly masculine culture. Manhood and a certain kind of masculinity are still considered integral to a leader’s political legitimacy.

    Yet leadership masculinity changes along party lines. We are now halfway through the election campaign and can already see differences in the masculine performances of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

    State Daddy versus Strongman Tough Cop

    In a recent open-access study, I identified the emergence of two Australian political masculinities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    First, the traditional “Daggy Dad” of former Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison, centred around the nuclear family and paternalistic protection.

    Second, the “State Daddy”, embodied by Labor leaders such as Albanese, who perform a more compassionate masculinity focused on social provision. In the 2022 election, Albanese effectively used his caring masculinity against Morrison’s faltering protective paternalism, highlighting many of Morrison’s weaknesses and especially his unpopularity with women.

    The 2025 election is shaping up to be another “gender election”, this time between the State Daddy and the Strongman Tough Cop.

    Albanese and Dutton’s adoption of certain masculine identities reveals not only how they want to be perceived but also how they envision the electorate, the nation, and its defining values.

    Dutton is a “tough-nut” conservative who portrays himself as a “strongman” protector. His leadership masculinity combines that of several other Liberal leaders, notably John Howard. But his conservatism is more reactionary, focusing less on economics and more on stoking culture wars.

    Like Tony Abbott, he is a pugilistic opposition leader who promises to keep Australians safe while reinforcing fear and uncertainty. Following Morrison’s lead, Dutton also targets outer-suburban electorates that traditionally vote Labor.

    His plan is to tap into voters’ anxiety and offer his “strongman” masculinity as its antidote. Since becoming leader, Dutton has frequently attempted to emasculate Albanese, labelling him “weak”, “woke”, and too preoccupied with “elite” issues, such as the Voice Referendum, to tackle the cost-of-living crisis.

    Dutton positions himself as the traditional masculine protector of the nation. The mobilisation of fear of a threat, real or imagined, is core to this identity. Dutton vows to protect Australians by being tough on crime, immigration and “wokeness”.

    Yet his strongman persona and conservative policies do not resonate with women, who fear he will follow Trump’s lead on gutting Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives or cuts to the public service and rights to work from home.

    The strongman protective persona is aimed at men in the outer suburbs, especially those at risk of voting Labor.

    In contrast, Albanese’s State Daddy masculinity targets women over men and seeks to inspire hope, care, and a collective response. The focus is on issues of equality, embodying a caring masculinity to rival traditional conservative masculine identities.

    Physical attractiveness is integral to the State Daddy image. For example, before the 2022 election, Albanese underwent what is colloquially termed a “glow up”.

    Seeking to appeal to the female gaze, he gave an “at home” interview for The Australian Women’s Weekly. These images are a useful tool for State Daddies for two reasons. First, to physically differentiate them from the dishevelled look preferred by conservative political leaders, such as Morrison, Boris Johnson or Donald Trump. Second, to visually signal their commitment to women voters.

    Both the Daggy Dad and Strongman Tough Cop often fall short. They claim to provide financial and physical protection to citizens, but only in exchange for subordination to their masculine authority. These limitations are often exposed when it’s necessary to protect citizens during crises such as, in Morrison’s case, bushfires, flood or plague. This protector masculinity fundamentally fails to recognise citizens’ needs and exposes the empty rhetoric at the core of protectionism.

    Who can we see at the 2025 election?

    Albanese is a far less popular leader than he was in 2022, for many reasons. However, the ALP are again campaigning on boosting the care economy, with major commitments to health care, aged care, and childcare. These are primarily women-dominated industries that Dutton, like Morrison before him, has repeatedly failed to support and engage.

    In contrast, Dutton was forced into an embarrassing back-down on a promise to end work-from-home arrangements for public servants, 57% of whom are women.

    Distracting from the Coalition’s long-standing “women problem”— which in part cost them the 2022 election — Dutton has been implying that Albanese’s “wokeness” has left men behind.

    Taking a page from the Trump playbook, Dutton has appeared on podcasts targeting mainly male audiences. On one appearance, he made a pitch to young male voters, noting: “Young males feel disenfranchised [and] ostracised”. He sympathised with the “anti-woke revolution” and argued that young men are “fed up” with “woke” practices.

    Albanese, meanwhile, has appeared on podcasts targeting mainly women audiences, including Abbie Chatfield’s “It’s A Lot” or Cheek Media’s podcast. He spoke about Labor’s policies supporting women’s health in areas including endometriosis care, contraceptives and menopause.

    It’s clear that both leaders are targeting very different parts of the voter bloc, in policy platforms and social media strategies.

    Blair Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Strongmen, Daggy Dads and State Daddies: how different styles of political masculinity play into Australian elections – https://theconversation.com/strongmen-daggy-dads-and-state-daddies-how-different-styles-of-political-masculinity-play-into-australian-elections-252727

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-Evening Report: Productivity reform has been put in the too-hard basket for years. Here’s why leaders leave it alone

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lachlan Vass, Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    National licensing of electricians has been one of the few productivity reforms of recent years. Shutterstock

    The federal election leaders’ and treasurers’ debates last week covered many topics: from Trump’s tariffs to the cost of living, energy supply and excise tax.

    But one of the most consequential things for Australia’s future prosperity was not mentioned – what either a Labor or Coalition government plans to do to kick-start productivity growth.

    It’s usually at this point – seeing the word “productivity” – that people switch off. So bear with me a minute.

    Productivity is a much-maligned term, often thought to mean people working harder or longer. But that’s not what it means.

    Being more productive means getting more for the same amount of work – working smarter, not longer. For example, in 1901 it took 18 minutes of an average worker’s time to be able to afford a loaf of bread.

    Thanks to improvements in efficiency (think using a dough hook rather than hand-kneading) and rising wages, today it takes around four minutes of work to afford a loaf.

    Why it matters to you

    Productivity growth matters. Increasing output and decreasing prices is the main driver of increasing real incomes in the long term. It means you’re able to purchase more (or better quality) goods and services as their relative costs go down and incomes increase.

    But Australia’s productivity growth is languishing. Reserve Bank analysis highlights that labour productivity grew only 0.2% per year over the six years to June 2024. The escalating global tariff war, and associated uncertainty, will threaten this further.

    Poor productivity growth also has significant implications for the federal budget. The budget papers showed that a forecast return to a balanced budget in a decade’s time is premised on a productivity growth assumption of 1.2% per year – which is optimistic.

    Recent analysis from the e61 Institute shows even a slightly more realistic assumption of 1% would increase the budget deficit by 0.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and push out the return to budget balance.

    What about all the inquiries?

    So what can we do about it? Fortunately, the Productivity Commission has delivered several reports that deep dive into the problems and potential solutions.

    The most recent report, Advancing Prosperity, was delivered to the government in 2023. It provided 29 reform directions and 71 individual recommendations, across over 1,000 pages of analysis.

    While a small number of these have been picked up by governments, such as reforms to the temporary skilled migration system, the vast majority remain on the shelf.

    There have been some initiatives aimed at stimulating productivity pursued by government outside of the Productivity Commission recommendations, such as the banning of non-compete clauses and nationally consistent licensing for electricians.



    Read more:
    Non-compete clauses make it too hard to change jobs. Banning them for millions of Australians is a good move

    These are steps in the right direction, but relatively small ones. We need policies to tilt our economy towards being more flexible and adaptable, allowing us to take advantage of whatever the next world-changing idea or technology is.

    Lots of talk, not much action

    So why have we seen so little action on productivity reforms, and why is neither side of politics talking about our productivity problem?

    There are a few likely reasons.

    Firstly, as economists often like to remind people, incentives matter. Politicians are no different to the rest of us in that they respond to the incentives they face. And often productivity-enhancing reforms come with short-term costs (political, economic or social), while the benefits don’t tend to materialise until the longer term.

    With politicians (understandably) focused on re-election every three years, the prospect of incurring a clear short-term cost for a longer-term benefit isn’t always a tempting one.

    Secondly, the impact of productivity-enhancing reforms tend to be more uncertain than other policies.

    For example, if we increase the level of JobSeeker payments, we can be fairly certain that those on JobSeeker will be able to consume more. While we may be confident about the direction of the impact of productivity reforms – such as improving the ability of the workers to find the firms that they best match with – it is harder to be certain about the size of this impact.

    This makes it more difficult to concretely claim an individual policy reform will have benefits that clearly and significantly outweigh the costs.

    No silver bullet on reform

    Finally, when it comes to productivity-enhancing reform, there is no single silver bullet. Modern productivity reform requires a collection of policies enacted together, which may be politically more difficult due to the larger number of potentially negatively affected groups.

    So what can we do to fix this? As constituents if you’re door-knocked or approached by politicians in the election campaign over the coming weeks, then make sure to ask them what their plans for reviving productivity growth are.

    Longer term, it is incumbent upon researchers and policymakers to create the burning platform for why productivity-improving change is needed, and what this means.

    There are many issues Australia faces, and politicians and citizens have limited bandwidth. We should work to better highlight and communicate the benefits and trade-offs, rather than bemoan the lack of action from politicians simply responding to incentives.

    The author thanks Aaron Wong, senior economist at the e61 Institute, for their contribution to this article.

    Lachlan Vass is affiliated with the e61 Institute.

    – ref. Productivity reform has been put in the too-hard basket for years. Here’s why leaders leave it alone – https://theconversation.com/productivity-reform-has-been-put-in-the-too-hard-basket-for-years-heres-why-leaders-leave-it-alone-253749

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN congratulates Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry Week at World Expo 2025

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, congratulated Malaysia Pavilion on the successful launch of the Ministry of Investment, Trade, and Industry Week at the World Expo 2025 this afternoon. The event, led by Mr. Dato Hairil Yahri Yaacob, Secretary-General, Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry of Malaysia.

    In his remark, SG Dr. Kao commended Malaysia’s leadership in driving key regional initiatives that will further enhance economic integration and in turn, advance ‘Inclusivity and Sustainability’ in line with its ASEAN chairmanship theme this year. 2025 symbolises Malaysia’s sixth participation in the World Expo.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN congratulates Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry Week at World Expo 2025 appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN visits Pavilions of ASEAN Member States and Timor-Leste at World Expo 2025

    Source: ASEAN

    While participating in the World Expo 2025, Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, visited Pavilions of the ASEAN Member States and Timor-Leste. SG Dr. Kao received a warm welcome from each head of delegation, whom he symbolically presented the stamps for the ASEAN Trail Challenge. While each pavilion has its own distinct focus, they collectively aspire to a future that is more resilient, prosperous, and inclusive.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN visits Pavilions of ASEAN Member States and Timor-Leste at World Expo 2025 appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN meets with State Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry of the Cabinet Office of Japan

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, met with H.E. KOGA Yuichiro, State Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry of the Cabinet Office of Japan, on the margins of the World Expo 2025. Both sides expressed their commitment to strengthen ASEAN-Japan economic relations, in line with objectives in the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN meets with State Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry of the Cabinet Office of Japan appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN visits Japan Pavilion at World Expo 2025

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, this evening paid a visit to the Japan Pavilion to conclude his engagements, at the World Expo 2025. Themed ‘Between Lives,’ the pavilion emphasizes the transformative cycles found in plants, animals, and societies, presenting a vision of a fulfilling life that acknowledges and honors the worth of all living beings. 2025 sees Japan’ sixth participation in the World Expo.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN visits Japan Pavilion at World Expo 2025 appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Expo puts HK tech on show

    Source: Hong Kong Information Services

    InnoEX, a four-day innovation and technology (I&T) mega event, kicked off today at the Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Centre, with government-development solutions featuring prominently among those on display at the Smart Hong Kong Pavilion.

    Themed “Innovation • Automate • Elevate”, the expo’s third edition presents cutting-edge technology solutions across five key areas: the low-altitude economy; AI; robotics; cybersecurity; and smart mobility.

    Officials including Financial Secretary Paul Chan and Secretary for Innovation, Technology & Industry Sun Dong visited the Smart Hong Kong Paviliion, where they were briefed by the Digital Policy Office on its efforts to lead government departments in leveraging I&T to enhance governance and operational efficiency.

    The pavilion, focusing mainly on AI and data-driven applications, showcases I&T solutions from 20 departments, besides winning entries from international and domestic competitions. The solutions are divided into six categories: smart living, smart mobility, smart environment, smart people, smart government and smart economy.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN officiates ASEAN Pavilion at World Expo 2025 in Osaka

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, officiated the ASEAN Pavilion this morning, at the Osaka, Kansai, Japan- World Expo 2025.

    Themed ‘Building Bridges,’ the pavilion showcases the multifaceted work of ASEAN, offering associated entities, centres, and partners with a platform to promote their efforts in advancing sustainable development across the region.

    In his address, Dr. Kao underscored collaboration in pursuit of the common good serves as the foundational cornerstone upon which we can build a brighter future. Representatives of the ASEAN Member States and Timor-Leste Pavilions as well as the ASEAN Committee in Tokyo were in attendance. 2025 heralds ASEAN’s second participation in the World Expo.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN officiates ASEAN Pavilion at World Expo 2025 in Osaka appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary General of ASEAN meets with Deputy Governor of Osaka Prefecture at World Expo 2025

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today met with Mr. MORIOKA Takekazu, Deputy Governor of the Osaka Prefecture, during his visit to the Osaka Healthcare Pavilion. During their meeting, Dr. Kao congratulated the Government of Japan for the much-anticipated World Expo 2025, which opened on 13 April 2025. He also commended the ongoing bilateral cooperation between Osaka and several cities in ASEAN, and expressed confidence in Osaka’s strong industrial and innovative ecosystem to drive ASEAN-Japan economic relations in the years to come.

    The post Secretary General of ASEAN meets with Deputy Governor of Osaka Prefecture at World Expo 2025 appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN speaks to Shanghai Media Group at the World Expo 2025

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, this afternoon noon spoke to the Shanghai Media Group, on the sidelines of the World Expo 2025. Dr. Kao noted ASEAN’s second participation in this world expo strives to advance the region’s social, cultural and economic cooperation, among others. The ASEAN Pavilion is open from 13 April to 13 October 2025.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN speaks to Shanghai Media Group at the World Expo 2025 appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-Evening Report: Newspoll steady but Albanese’s ratings jump; swing to Labor in marginal seats

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A national Newspoll, conducted April 7–10 from a sample of 1,271, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the March 31 to April 4 Newspoll. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one) and 12% for all Others (steady).

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped seven points to -4, his best net approval since May 2024. Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -19, his worst since September 2023. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 49–38 (48–40 previously).

    Leaders’ ratings changes may imply that future Newspolls will be better for Labor on voting intentions, but this doesn’t always happen. Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are data points and a trend line has been fitted. Albanese’s ratings have surged from a low of -21 net approval in mid-February.

    This Newspoll is the only new national poll since Friday’s article, but a Redbridge poll of marginal seats had a 1.5-point swing to Labor since the 2022 election, implying that Labor is gaining seats. Here is the national poll graph.

    I believe Donald Trump is most responsible for Labor’s surge in the polls to a clear lead and a probable majority government (they won a majority in 2022 on the same primary vote Newspoll gives them). Albanese’s ratings have probably lifted owing to a favourable comparison between Albanese and Trump.

    Coalition senator Jacinta Price’s use of “Make Australia Great Again” on Saturday, an echo of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, will damage efforts by the Coalition to distance itself from Trump.

    Asked what type of government they wanted after the election in Newspoll, 32% wanted a Labor majority, 32% a Coalition majority, 21% a Labor minority government and 15% a Coalition minority government. This means 64% wanted a Labor or Coalition majority, while 36% wanted a minority government. The overall 53–47 split for a Labor government nearly matches the 52–48 two-party estimate.

    Redbridge marginal seats poll has swing to Labor

    A poll of 20 marginal seats by Redbridge and Accent Research for the News Corp tabloids was conducted April 4–9 from a sample of 1,003. It gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a three-point gain for Labor since the late February marginal seats poll. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down five), 35% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady) and 17% for all Others (up four).

    The overall 2022 vote in these 20 seats was 51–49 to Labor, so this poll implies a 1.5-point swing to Labor from the 2022 election. If applied to the national 2022 result of 52.1–47.9 to Labor, Labor would lead by about 53.5–46.5.

    Albanese’s net favourability improved three points since late February to -8, while Dutton’s was down five points to -16. Dutton led Albanese by 27–23 on best to manage the relationship with the US and Trump (31–22 previously). But if people really thought Dutton would be able to prevent Trump’s tariff chaos, voting intentions would not have shifted towards Labor.

    On whether the US is a reliable partner and friend for Australia, 61% said it had been a reliable partner and friend, but less so now than it was, 18% said the US is still a reliable partner and friend, and 12% said it was never a reliable partner or friend.

    Dutton may be trailing in Dickson, and other seat polls

    Dutton won the Queensland seat of Dickson by 51.7–48.3 against Labor in 2022. The Poll Bludger reported Saturday that a uComms poll of Dickson for the Queensland Conservation Council, conducted April 9–10 from a sample of 854, gave Labor a 52–48 lead over Dutton.

    In other Dickson seat polls, the Coalition said their own polling by Freshwater gave Dutton a 57–43 lead, a uComms poll for Climate 200 gave Labor a 51.7–48.3 lead and Labor’s polling had it tied 50–50. Seat polls are unreliable.

    In the Western Australian Liberal-held seat of Forrest, a poll for Climate 200 gave a teal candidate a 51–49 lead over the Liberals. In the Tasmanian Labor-held seat of Lyons (50.9–49.1 to Labor in 2022), a uComms poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gave Labor a 50.9–49.1 lead over the Liberals.

    In other seat-specific news, in the Victorian seat of Macnamara, Labor incumbent Josh Burns won’t recommend preferences on how to vote material between the Liberals and Greens. Previously Labor has recommended preferences to the Greens. It will be more difficult for the Greens to win Macnamara if the final two candidates are the Liberals and Greens.

    Candidate nominations declared

    Candidate nominations were declared on Friday. The Poll Bludger said there were 1,126 total candidates for the 150 House of Representatives seats, an average of 7.5 candidates per seat. That’s down from 1,203 total candidates in 2022, an average of 8.0 per seat.

    Labor, the Greens and the Coalition will contest all 150 seats, One Nation 147 (all except the three ACT seats), Trumpet of Patriots 100 (down from contesting all seats under UAP in 2022), Family First 92, Libertarians 46 and Legalise Cannabis 42. There are a total of 132 independent candidates, up from 98 in 2022.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Newspoll steady but Albanese’s ratings jump; swing to Labor in marginal seats – https://theconversation.com/newspoll-steady-but-albaneses-ratings-jump-swing-to-labor-in-marginal-seats-254445

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: U.S. tariffs are about to trigger the greatest trade diversion the world has ever seen

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Wolfgang Alschner, Hyman Soloway Chair in Business and Trade Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs have shaken the global trading system. Canadians have rightly been preoccupied by the tariff’s devastating impact on U.S.-Canada relations, but the wider ripple effects could prove just as damaging.

    The tariffs have redirected billions of dollars in exports originally bound for the U.S., which are now poised to flood global markets — including Canada’s. This will trigger a historic trade diversion that will put even the most free trade-minded nations to the test.

    Around 15 per cent of global imports went to the U.S. in 2024. The country has long been the world’s biggest consumer market, in part, due to its low average tariffs of just 3.3 per cent.

    These days are now over. On April 2, the U.S. increased its average tariff rate seven-fold to a staggering 22 per cent — by far the highest among countries with a major economy.



    Read more:
    Canada was mostly spared from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, but it must not grow complacent

    Even though the U.S.’s “reciprocal” tariffs have since been suspended for all countries except China and Trump has now exempted smartphones, computers and microchips, a 10 per cent baseline rate and several sectoral duties remain in place.

    Together, they form a tariff wall around the U.S. unlike anything seen in generations.

    The Great Trade Diversion

    Much of the trade disruption stems from China. In 2024, China exported US$438.9 billion worth of goods to the U.S. Millions of parcels, sent via e-commerce platforms like Shein, entered the U.S. duty-free because they fell below the US$800 “de minimis” threshold.

    On April 2, Trump eliminated this exemption for low-value Chinese exports and imposed a reciprocal tariff on all Chinese imports of 34 per cent.

    This rate was increased further after China vowed to retaliate on April 4, and is now stacked on top of a 20 per cent fentanyl-related tariff. The result is an effective tariff rate exceeding 100 per cent, making it prohibitively costly for China to export to the U.S.

    Last time U.S.-China trade tensions escalated, China rerouted many of its exports through Southeast Asia. This time, however, Southeast Asian countries were hit hard, too.

    Vietnam, a major destination of Chinese export-oriented foreign investment, exported US$137 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2024. While the 46 per cent reciprocal tariff against Vietnam has since been suspended, the U.S. is unlikely to tolerate such circumvention this time around.

    The U.S. has also imposed a 25 per cent tariff on all imported automobiles. South Korea, Japan and Germany all export cars to the U.S. market. While some of these exports may continue as tariff costs are absorbed or passed on to customers, others will divert their vehicles to alternative markets.

    All told, billions of dollars in trade are being rerouted, with a tidal wave of diverted goods now headed for markets around the world.

    A repeat of the Great Depression

    The world has been here before. In the 1930s, the U.S. enacted the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods in an effort to shield American industries during the Great Depression. The result was a rapid contraction of global trade.

    What ultimately tipped the world over the edge wasn’t direct retaliation against the U.S. Instead, global trade collapsed as U.S. trading partners turned on each other. Faced with a flood of diverted goods, they rushed to protect their own manufacturing by enacting trade restrictions of their own.

    Similarly, today, we face a similar risk. The greater concern is not Trump’s tariffs themselves or even the retaliation they provoke, but rather the resulting trade diversion and wave of protectionism it can trigger.

    Old fears, new pressures

    In some respects, the world may be in a more precarious position today than it was in the early 1930s.

    For close to a decade, western policymakers, including G7 members, have sounded alarm bells over “Chinese overcapacity.” China consumes too little at home and exports too much abroad, often using unfair non-market practices such as covert subsidization to undercut local prices.

    Fears of deindustrialization have already led some governments to put new trade barriers in place. Canada, for example, placed a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles to protect its own nascent industry in 2024. A flood of diverted Chinese imports will only heighten these pre-existing concerns.

    At the same time, global trade rules meant to safeguard against protectionism have become brittle. The U.S. has blocked the appointment of judges to the World Trade Organization’s highest court, which is tasked with enforcing trade rules.

    The resulting impunity has emboldened countries beyond the U.S. to openly flout WTO rules. Indonesia, for example, continues to maintain a WTO-inconsistent export ban on nickel. Canada’s electric vehicle tariff will likely be judged illegal under trade rules as well.

    Global trade system at a crossroads

    The Great Trade Diversion is set to put an already strained system to the test. There is still time for countries to reaffirm their commitment to international trade rules. Those same rules also allow countries to temporarily restrict trade when faced with a flood of imports.

    The Canadian government can proactively identify sectors at risk of disruption and call on the Canada Border Services Agency to self-initiate investigations into vulnerable sectors to swiftly clear the procedural hurdles for imposing temporary import restrictions.

    If countries stick to these rules, the global trading system can weather the storm. Just as possible, though, is a slide toward protectionism. Faced with a deluge of goods coming from China, the temptation to erect illegal trade barriers like the U.S. already has will be high.

    The global economy stands at a crossroads: one path leads to a reassertion of international co-operation and global rules; the other to a cascade of protectionist measures and a weakening of the very system that has enabled decades of economic growth and stability.

    Wolfgang Alschner receives funding from the SSHRC.

    – ref. U.S. tariffs are about to trigger the greatest trade diversion the world has ever seen – https://theconversation.com/u-s-tariffs-are-about-to-trigger-the-greatest-trade-diversion-the-world-has-ever-seen-254049

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s record-breaking contract with the Toronto Blue Jays is a win-win deal for both sides

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ryan Clutterbuck, Assistant Professor in Sport Management, Brock University

    After missing out on the Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto sweepstakes in 2023 and 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have reportedly agreed to a record-breaking 14-year US$500 million extension to his contract with the team.

    The deal will likely prove to be a win-win for both sides.

    For the Blue Jays, the win, as articulated by current Blue Jays pitcher Max Scherzer, means “you just solidified your organization, and you know who’s playing first for the next 14 years.”

    One of Guerrero Jr.’s wins (that doesn’t include a dollar sign), according to teammate Bo Bichette, is that he gets to remain at a team he wants to keep playing for.

    In terms of lessons learned, this contract offers future sport managers and negotiators from across disciplines several reminders to reflect on and incorporate into future deals.

    Dealing with time pressures

    Time pressure arises in auctions or negotiations when people feel like they are running out of time.

    It can lead to people making unwise decisions, such as the winner’s curse, where someone ends up overpaying for something because they overestimated its value. However, in negotiations, there are real time pressures and imagined time pressures, and recognizing each is important.

    For example, we can imagine an alternate universe in which the Blue Jays accepted and then acted upon Guerrero Jr.’s Feb. 18 deadline to negotiate a contract extension.

    In that universe, there’s no win-win potential. Instead, negotiations between the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. end and the conversation turns to possible trading partners and timelines to secure the greatest possible return.

    The Blue Jays recognized Guerrero Jr.’s Feb. 18 deadline represented an imagined rather than a real time pressure. Faced with an imagined time pressure, the Blue Jays executed a clever act of negotiation jiu-jitsu.

    Over a month after Guerrero Jr.’s Feb. 18 deadline had passed, Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro said: “I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him. The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome.”

    Whereas other, perhaps less experienced negotiators may have been tempted to meet Guerrero Jr.’s demands with reciprocal force, for example, by issuing their own counter-ultimatum (as in: take it or leave it!), Shapiro simply ignored the demand and reinforced the team’s desire to make Guerrero Jr. a Blue Jay for life.

    Even experienced negotiators can fall into repetitive action-reaction cycles in which every demand, ask and ultimatum is met with equal or increased resistance from the other side. Of course, in every negotiation, either side will have to stand up for their interests and push back at times. But sometimes it can be more useful to simply step aside than it is to push back.

    Time value of money

    There were also financial issues that had to be resolved via negotiation. Notable, as well, is the time-value-of-money concept that entered into the sport lexicon with hitter Shohei Ohtani’s uniquely structured contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers (US$700 million over 10 years with US$680 million deferred until 2034). This may have been a major factor for Guerrero Jr. too.

    To understand how the time-value-of-money concept can impact negotiations, it may be helpful to reflect on how far $50 used to go 10 years ago and far it does today. Just as $50 in 2015 was more valuable then than it is today, the same will be true for hundreds of millions of dollars.

    Much has been made of Guerrero Jr.’s reported contact and its compensation structure that, similar to outfielder Juan Soto’s deal with the New York Mets, does not include such team/ownership-friendly deferrals.

    Ohtani may be more comfortable and uniquely positioned, by virtue of his lucrative off-the-field endorsements in North America and Japan, to defer a large chunk of his US$700 million deal with the LA Dodgers. However, the message from Soto and Guerrero Jr.’s camps seems to have been: show me the present value.

    What is interesting from a negotiation standpoint and worth reflecting on here and for the future is how showing Guerrero Jr. the present-value-of-money facilitated the deal.

    Despite challenges to securing a long-term win-win, that included an arbitration hearing in February 2024, the application of time pressure by Guerrero Jr. a year later and a reported deadlock over $50 million in the late stages of the negotiation, the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. can now each claim victory. It’s a classic win-win.

    Ryan Clutterbuck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s record-breaking contract with the Toronto Blue Jays is a win-win deal for both sides – https://theconversation.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-record-breaking-contract-with-the-toronto-blue-jays-is-a-win-win-deal-for-both-sides-254055

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 14, 2025

  • MIL-OSI China: China International Consumer Products Expo unveils tech-driven future

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    HAIKOU, April 13 — A seamless integration of cutting-edge technologies into daily life is taking center stage at the ongoing fifth China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE) in south China’s Haikou City, painting a vivid picture of a smarter, more interconnected future.

    Slated from April 13 to 18, this year’s expo features dedicated exhibition zones for groundbreaking innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) and low-altitude economy for the first time.

    Tech giants like Huawei and China Mobile are showcasing futuristic solutions. Huawei’s HarmonyOS ecosystem demonstrates cross-device synergy across “people, vehicles, and homes,” featuring AI-powered eye-tracking technology for hands-free e-book navigation.

    China Mobile’s smart home ecosystem includes quadruped robotic companions for elderly care and AI-driven home security systems.

    “AI is accelerating its integration into everyday scenarios. The expo is undoubtedly a major platform to showcase these advances,” said Zhan Wenyu, vice president of AI company iFLYTEK, which has participated in the expo for five consecutive years.

    The expo’s dedicated AI zone displays humanoid robots capable of complex tasks, such as dancing in traditional local Li ethnic brocade costumes or handling delicate objects.

    Tesla’s latest humanoid robot boasts enhanced mobility and tactile sensitivity, while the Ti5 Robot unveils breakthroughs in electric drive technology with lightweight joint modules and smart dexterous hands.

    Health and wellness technologies also claim a prominent spotlight. Continuous glucose monitors and light therapy glasses under various brands further spotlight the fusion of tech and well-being, while brain-computer interfaces highlight advancements in medical accessibility. Companies like SenseTime and Asus are presenting smart health ecosystems at the event.

    Brands like OSIM and Ogawa have debuted AI massage robots. Air Nutri Solution Inc., a Vancouver-based non-medicinal sleep solutions provider, introduces its “deep sleep cabin,” which uses charged particle waves to create immersive rest environments.

    The OSIM sees the expo as a key platform for engaging in meaningful conversations with global consumers, said Lin Xiaohui, deputy general manager of brand management and marketing of OSIM North Asia.

    Making its debut this year, the low-altitude economy zone showcases electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, flying cars, and drones.

    Autonomous vehicles served expo attendees, offering driverless shuttles and cleaning services around key venues, providing a glimpse into smart city logistics.

    United Aircraft brought the TD550, which obtained the first type certificate for unmanned helicopters in China, to the exhibition. “China is entering an era of rapid development of the low-altitude economy,” said Zhou Xiaoyue, director of the firm’s public relations.

    “The Hainan Free Trade Port provides unprecedented opportunities for the innovation of the drone industry,” Zhou said, adding that the firm will work with global partners through the expo platform to promote the industrial implementation of the low-altitude economy.

    MIL OSI China News –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Greenpeace activists crash Coalition launch event to say: Don’t Risk Dutton’s Nuclear 

    Source: Greenpeace Statement –

    SYDNEY, Sunday 13 April 2025 – Greenpeace activists have staged a ‘hazard cleanup’ at the Coalition’s election campaign launch at Liverpool Catholic Club in Western Sydney to send a clear message to Australian voters: Don’t risk Dutton’s nuclear. 

    Greenpeace activists dressed in hazmat suits and gas masks staged the clean up with Geiger counters outside the launch event during Peter Dutton’s election launch, and displayed banners reading: “Don’t risk Dutton’s nuclear”. The activists were escorted away from the entrance by security, but continued protesting near the building. Greenpeace is calling on Peter Dutton to dump his nuclear policies, saying the plans are too risky for Australia.

    Speaking from the event, David Ritter, CEO at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said:

    “We’re here today because Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan is too risky and too dangerous to proceed. We’re sounding the alarm on the dangers of the Coalition’s reckless nuclear plan that could expose Australian communities to an accident involving highly radioactive waste, and will prolong the use of climate-wrecking coal and gas for decades.

    “Greenpeace will always challenge policies that harm people, nature, and the climate. That is why today we have sent a loud and clear message to Australian voters — don’t risk Dutton’s nuclear plan. 

    “The Coalition has no plan for dealing with toxic waste safely, nor for protecting locals and emergency services in communities like Collie, LaTrobe Valley and the Hunter Valley, where it wants to build nuclear reactors. 

    “Nuclear is a dangerous distraction from the urgent need to slash emissions this decade and phase out coal, oil, and gas at emergency speed and scale. It is a smokescreen to prolong coal and gas while we wait decades for nuclear. 

    “We have the solutions — why risk nuclear when we’re already almost halfway towards powering Australia with clean, safe and affordable wind and solar power? A credible energy policy is one that rapidly scales up renewables and storage, not one that locks us into dangerous, unnecessary nuclear and fossil fuels for decades. 

    “Greenpeace is calling on Peter Dutton to dump his unpopular, unviable, and dangerous nuclear plan, and instead support the proven, safe, and affordable renewable energy solutions that will benefit our economy, our communities and our planet.”

    —ENDS—

    Photos and video of the protest will be uploaded here by 2pm

    For more information or to arrange an interview please contact Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 [email protected] or Kimberley Bernard on 0407 581 404 [email protected]

    MIL OSI NGO –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kennedy Mbeva, Research Associate, University of Cambridge

    A new world order is emerging. The United States is no longer the sole force shaping global events; countries like China, Russia, India and the Gulf states are growing in influence.

    This shift has intensified global competition and made international cooperation more challenging. In today’s world, power, not rules, is the key driver of global affairs.

    What is Africa’s role? Drawing on our research, we argue that the continent should adopt a pragmatic strategy involving two elements. First, identifying issues suitable for collective action, like climate diplomacy and a seat at the UN security council. Second, recognising those that require regional or domestic policy, such as regional conflicts and trade agreements.

    We propose this approach because Africa is not a single state or supranational entity. A grand strategy is therefore impractical. Instead, our proposal accepts that some issues are best tackled collectively, while others may require regional or unilateral action.

    New doctrines are needed

    Countries could collectively adopt something like a “doctrine”, such as the Lagos Plan of Action (1980-2000). The plan outlines an ambitious goal of boosting Africa’s self-reliance through development and economic integration. Also, the Declaration of Monrovia of 1973, which emphasises the need for collective self-reliance. This was Africa’s contribution to the calls for a new international economic order at the end of the second world war. While these documents were developed to reflect the world at that time, they may serve as an inspiration for a new strategy that reflects the emerging new world order.

    The Monroe and Truman doctrines outlined how the US could secure its global dominance. Both highlight the power of well-defined principles in guiding strategy.

    African countries could adopt a new doctrine on how the continent can enhance its position in the emerging global order. The doctrine would present an opportunity for African countries to develop a clear and coherent strategy for effective engagement, appreciating the opportunities and limitations of the new world order. It should also appreciate the difficulty of coordinating diverse countries in the continent. This is possible by building on the spirit and legacy of Lagos and Monrovia strategies.

    Read more: African Union’s new chair has a long list of tough tasks – what it will take to get them done

    Seismic changes

    Geoeconomics, where security and economics influence geopolitics, is reshaping Africa.

    Concerns have been raised about the possible termination of the African Growth and Opportunity Act by the US administration. This legislation grants African countries preferential access to the US market.

    For their part, African countries established the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement in 2018 to create a continental common market and reduce dependence on the global economic system.

    Yet Africa’s ambitious trade plans face threats from global shifts as well as internal dynamics. For example, the Trump administration has slammed high tariffs on virtually all trade partners, including African countries. Lesotho received the highest tariffs (50%) of all US trading partners. This might affect preferential access agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

    Other major economies such as the EU and China are also exploring opportunities to conclude bilateral trade deals with African countries. These developments could undermine the goal of creating an exclusive continental market.

    Internal dynamics within the continent are also not stable. When Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to form the Alliance of Sahel States in 2024, commentators blamed regional instability. We argue, however, that the breakup of Ecowas is a warning about the limits of integration.

    The fact that the Alliance for Sahel States is based on a security pact rather than economic integration highlights how extreme risks can reconfigure continental unity. For fragile states, securing political stability is necessary for economic integration. Security rather than economics is the primary policy concern for such states.

    Similar challenges arise in climate diplomacy. African countries, which have contributed least to global climate change, are pressured to assume greater responsibility with little international support. Yet they continue suffering its worsening impacts. At the same time, African states have received little of the international support necessary to support them to address climate action. Such support includes climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.

    African policymakers have responded creatively by making their national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement conditional on international support in finance, technology transfer and capacity-building. And they say initiatives to address climate change should also contribute to the broader goals of sustainable development.

    As we argue in a recently published book, this approach ensures that Africa can pursue sustainable development while contributing to the global climate effort. It also aligns with the continent’s long-standing emphasis on the development aspects of environmental politics.

    The solution

    Our suggestion is a simple, pragmatic concept: African countries should work together on some issues and act alone on others.

    Unlike the common African positions adopted through the African Union, this approach clearly lays out when cooperation is best and when countries should follow their own path. It offers a clear set of guiding principles such as the need for flexibility for cooperation and unilateral actions when consensus is unattainable. This can serve as a blueprint for future policies and help coordinate Africa’s diplomacy.

    This has several advantages. It’s simple and straightforward, recognises national differences while encouraging cooperation, and strengthens Africa’s voice and role on the global stage.

    A major challenge is getting all countries to agree on how flexibility should balance between consensus and unilateral action by African countries.

    But the strategy would acknowledge the need for flexibility to balance Africa’s ambition for greater global leadership. This must also be within the limits set by global and domestic realities.

    Read more: The African Union is weak because its members want it that way – experts call for action on its powers

    Looking forward

    As the world adjusts to a new global order where multilateralism is in decline and power politics dominate, Africa can take advantage of opportunities to shape global affairs and secure its collective policy goals. This can be done through its seat at the G20.

    But it requires a clear and coherent strategy.

    – Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be
    – https://theconversation.com/power-drives-global-affairs-today-not-rules-what-africas-strategies-should-be-251078

    MIL OSI Africa –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Secretary-General’s video message for the UN Pavillion Welcome Message at Expo2025

    Source: United Nations – English

    ownload the video here:
    https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/downloads2.unmultimedia.org/public/vi…

    As Secretary-General of the United Nations, I welcome you to the United Nations Pavilion at Expo 2025.  

    This Pavilion is a window into our work around the world — from our founding in 1945, right through today.

    As you continue exploring, you will discover how the United Nations plays a key role in people’s lives today — including here in Japan.   

    This Pavilion also symbolizes an important truth — building a better, more peaceful future requires all countries, and all people, working as one. 

    You are about to enter an immersive theatre providing a glimpse of one possible future.

    A world in which everyone thrives in peace, dignity and equality on a healthy planet.  

    A world we can only create together by achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and boosting climate action. 

    But this future is not automatic.

    It requires all of us — and all of you — working to achieve it.

    The future that you are about to see is possible.

    Let’s unite and work together to make it a reality.   

    Thank you. Arigatou gozaimasu.
     

    MIL OSI Africa –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: CS attends FSD open day

    Source: Hong Kong Information Services

    The Fire Services Department today held an open day at the Fire and Ambulance Services Academy (FASA) in support of National Security Education Day, which will be held on Tuesday.

     

    Chief Secretary Chan Kwok-ki attended a flag-raising ceremony and spoke at the event, which attracted more than 9,000 participants.

     

    He praised the 41 departmental staff who recently took part in search-and-rescue operations in earthquake-stricken areas of Myanmar, commending the team’s swift response and professionalism. He added that their efforts demonstrated China’s commitment to global humanitarian efforts and support for the spirit of international security, which he said is an essential element of a holistic approach to national security.

     

    The Chief Secretary then toured an exhibition on national security, and also the National Security Education & Resource Centre at the FASA. Secretary for Security Tang Ping-keung visited game booths set up as part of the open day.

     

    As part of the event, facilities such as the simulated Pak Shing Kok railway station, training simulations, and the fire and ambulance services education centre, were also open to the public.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fresh details emerge on Australia’s new climate migration visa for Tuvalu residents

    ANALYSIS: By Jane McAdam, UNSW Sydney

    The details of a new visa enabling Tuvaluan citizens to permanently migrate to Australia were released this week.

    The visa was created as part of a bilateral treaty Australia and Tuvalu signed in late 2023, which aims to protect the two countries’ shared interests in security, prosperity and stability, especially given the “existential threat posed by climate change”.

    The Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union, as it is known, is the world’s first bilateral agreement to create a special visa like this in the context of climate change.

    Here’s what we know so far about why this special visa exists and how it will work.

    Why is this migration avenue important?
     The impacts of climate change are already contributing to displacement and migration around the world.

    As a low-lying atoll nation, Tuvalu is particularly exposed to rising sea levels, storm surges and coastal erosion.

    As Pacific leaders declared in a world-first regional framework on climate mobility in 2023, rights-based migration can “help people to move safely and on their own terms in the context of climate change.”

    And enhanced migration opportunities have clearly made a huge difference to development challenges in the Pacific, allowing people to access education and work and send money back home.

    As international development expert Professor Stephen Howes put it,

    Countries with greater migration opportunities in the Pacific generally do better.

    While Australia has a history of labour mobility schemes for Pacific peoples, this will not provide opportunities for everyone.

    Despite perennial calls for migration or relocation opportunities in the face of climate change, this is the first Australian visa to respond.

    Fresh details emerge on Australia’s new climate migration visa for Tuvalu residents. I explain here … https://t.co/EvPJkDUxEa via @ConversationEDU

    — Jane McAdam (@profjmcadam) April 10, 2025

    How does the new visa work?
     The visa will enable up to 280 people from Tuvalu to move to Australia each year.

    On arrival in Australia, visa holders will receive, among other things, immediate access to:

    • education (at the same subsidisation as Australian citizens)
    • Medicare
    • the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS)
    • family tax benefit
    • childcare subsidy
    • youth allowance.

    They will also have “freedom for unlimited travel” to and from Australia.

    This is rare. Normally, unlimited travel is capped at five years.

    According to some experts, these arrangements now mean Tuvalu has the “second closest migration relationship with Australia after New Zealand”.

    Reading the fine print
     The technical name of the visa is Subclass 192 (Pacific Engagement).

    The details of the visa, released this week, reveal some curiosities.

    First, it has been incorporated into the existing Pacific Engagement Visa category (subclass 192) rather than designed as a standalone visa.

    Presumably, this was a pragmatic decision to expedite its creation and overcome the significant costs of establishing a wholly new visa category.

    But unlike the Pacific Engagement Visa — a different, earlier visa, which is contingent on applicants having a job offer in Australia — this new visa is not employment-dependent.

    Secondly, the new visa does not specifically mention Tuvalu.

    This would make it simpler to extend it to other Pacific countries in the future.

    Who can apply, and how?

    To apply, eligible people must first register their interest for the visa online. Then, they must be selected through a random computer ballot to apply.

    The primary applicant must:

    • be at least 18 years of age
    • hold a Tuvaluan passport, and
    • have been born in Tuvalu — or had a parent or a grandparent born there.

    People with New Zealand citizenship cannot apply. Nor can anyone whose Tuvaluan citizenship was obtained through investment in the country.

    This indicates the underlying humanitarian nature of the visa; people with comparable opportunities in New Zealand or elsewhere are ineligible to apply for it.

    Applicants must also satisfy certain health and character requirements.

    Strikingly, the visa is open to those “with disabilities, special needs and chronic health conditions”. This is often a bar to acquiring an Australian visa.

    And the new visa isn’t contingent on people showing they face risks from the adverse impacts of climate change and disasters, even though climate change formed the backdrop to the scheme’s creation.

    Settlement support is crucial
     With the first visa holders expected to arrive later this year, questions remain about how well supported they will be.

    The Explanatory Memorandum to the treaty says:

    Australia would provide support for applicants to find work and to the growing Tuvaluan diaspora in Australia to maintain connection to culture and improve settlement outcomes.

    That’s promising, but it’s not yet clear how this will be done.

    A heavy burden often falls on diaspora communities to assist newcomers.

    For this scheme to work, there must be government investment over the immediate and longer-term to give people the best prospects of thriving.

    Drawing on experiences from refugee settlement, and from comparative experiences in New Zealand with respect to Pacific communities, will be instructive.

    Extensive and ongoing community consultation is also needed with Tuvalu and with the Tuvalu diaspora in Australia. This includes involving these communities in reviewing the scheme over time.

    Dr Jane McAdam is Scientia professor and ARC laureate fellow, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Sydney. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Government cuts price of everyday items and summer essentials

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    Press release

    Government cuts price of everyday items and summer essentials

    The Government has cut prices on the imports of everyday essentials like spices and juices to boost economic growth.

    • Prices slashed on 89 foreign products – ranging from pasta, fruit juices and spices to plastics and gardening supplies – over next two years    

    • Cheaper imports will save businesses at least £17 million per year in a further bid to kickstart growth as part of the Plan for Change  

    • Savings could be passed onto families, mixologists and amateur gardeners through lower prices on everyday items and summer essentials 

    • UK committed to economic growth, business security and lower prices through free and open trade

    UK businesses and consumers could benefit from lower prices on imports of everyday essentials like spices and juices as the Government takes further action to make the UK the best place to do business and kickstart economic growth.  

    In a further demonstration of the government’s commitment to free trade and responding to business need, the UK Global Tariff will be temporarily suspended on 89 products saving UK businesses up and down the country at least £17 million a year.  

    The products include plywood and plastics, which are essential for construction – making life easier for chippies all over the country.

    Working in partnership with industry, the government has decided to suspend import tariffs on a whole range of products to lower costs for businesses, tariffs will now be cut to zero until July 2027.    

    The savings to businesses on products such as pasta, fruit juices, coconut oil and pine nuts could be passed onto consumers just in time for the summer season, meaning lower food prices in supermarkets, restaurants and pubs.  

    Products including agave syrup, often used in margaritas, and plant bulbs will also see tariffs removed meaning keen cocktail-makers and amateur gardeners could enjoy lowered costs as the warmer weather approaches. 

    These changes will support key growth sectors such as advanced manufacturing and clean energy to compete with international rivals, supporting the Government’s Industrial Strategy with the Plan for Change.  

    Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said: 

    Free and open trade grows economies, lowers prices and helps businesses to sell to the world, which is why we’re cutting tariffs on a range of products.  

    From food to furniture, this will reduce the cost of everyday items for businesses, with savings hopefully passed onto consumers. 

    As we face a new era of global trade, this government is going further faster to make Britain the best country to do business, delivering on our Plan for Change. These suspensions are just another example of that.

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said:   

    In a changing world we know families are anxious about the cost of living, and businesses uncertain about their future. That’s why we’ve announced lower prices on imports of everyday essentials – helping businesses to thrive and pass on savings to customers.

    Through our Plan for Change we’re supporting British business and putting more money in people’s pockets.

    The UK Global Tariff applies to goods entering the UK that do not qualify for preferential treatment under, for example, a free trade agreement.     

    Businesses across the UK apply for temporary suspensions on a regular basis by providing evidence of the benefits to themselves, their sector and the wider economy.  

    CBI Europe and International Director Sean McGuire: 

    In the face of an uncertain and unpredictable global trading environment, government should be commended for suspending import duties on an array of products. Measures like these will be important for reducing the financial pressures on firms and help to drive growth for businesses of all sizes across the country.

    The UK has already reduced tariffs on certain imported goods, benefitting British consumers with better choice, quality and prices on products like fruit juices from Peru and vacuum cleaners from Malaysia.   

    The Government is going further and faster in negotiating trade deals with partners including India, the Gulf Cooperation Council, South Korea and Switzerland which will unlock new opportunities for businesses, support jobs, and boost wages.    

    These measures come as the government acts swiftly to protect UK businesses and workers in a new era of global trade, through increasing flexibility on the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, cutting the red tape and bureaucracy that slows down clinical trials in the life sciences sector, investing up to £600 million in a new Health Data Research Service and backing a £30 million package to support the reopening of Doncaster Sheffield Airport which is expected to support 5,000 jobs and boost the economy by £5 billion.   

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    Published 13 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN holds a pull-aside meeting with Chief Executive Officer of AirAsia brand co. at the World Expo 2025

    Source: ASEAN – Association of SouthEast Asian Nations

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today held a pull-aside meeting with Mr. Rudy Khaw, Chief Executive Officer of the AirAsia brand co., on the margins of the World Expo 2025. Dr. Kao commended AirAsia’s pivotal role in promoting regional connectivity, integration, and tourism, aligning ASEAN’s goals of enhancing economic growth and cooperation among member states. AirAsia is at the World Expo 2025 to join the ASEAN Trail Challenge launch, a stamp rally adventure that invites visitors to explore unique gems and untapped potentials of each member states.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN holds a pull-aside meeting with Chief Executive Officer of AirAsia brand co. at the World Expo 2025 appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor and Coalition support for new home buyers welcome but other Australians also struggling with housing affordability

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate Professor, Western Sydney University

    doublelee/Shutterstock

    There is no denying housing reform is urgently needed in Australia to make housing more affordable and accessible to everyday Australians.

    Both major parties have now announced the incentives they are offering to help first-home buyers. While both Labor and the Coalition are hopeful their newly announced policies will win the most votes, how easy will it be to implement and how will it help first-home buyers?

    What new housing incentives are being offered?

    Refreshingly, both major parties are offering more novel policies than have previously been announced. In addition, both policies offer welcome relief to first-home buyers.

    As part of their $43 billion housing plan that already includes delivering 55,000 social and affordable homes, a Labor government will spend $10 billion to help more Australians purchase their first home.

    The first part of this plan includes increasing housing supply by building 100,000 new homes over eight years – just for first home buyers. The government would work with the states to identify where these homes will be built, beginning next financial year.

    The second part of Labor’s plan involves expanding the 5% deposit Home Guarantee Scheme to remove the annual cap of 50,000 places and removing income thresholds.

    It will also increase property price caps to better reflect local markets so that buyers can look to purchase a property where they currently work and/or live. For example, the current cap in Sydney will increase from $900,000 to $1.5 million.

    The Home Guarantee Scheme, which has already been used by more than 150,000 Australians, allows eligible first-home buyers to purchase a property with a 5% deposit and without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance. The government guarantees part of the home loan. This will speed up the time that it will take for first-home buyers to save for a deposit, as they will be able to use a smaller deposit to secure a home.

    The 100,000 homes that would be built as part of Labor’s plans would only be available to first time home owners.
    Go My Media

    The Coalition have announced they will permit first-time buyers of newly built properties to deduct interest on up to $650,000 of their mortgage against their income for up to five years. The first home buyers, however, have to remain in their home for this time period.

    This will be available to singles on incomes up to $175,000 and couples with a combined income of up to $250,000. This is similar to the mortgage interest tax deduction currently permitted through negative gearing to property investors with rental properties.

    How easy are these housing policies to implement?

    While Labor’s Home Guarantee policy is already in operation, it should be relatively easy to expand this policy.

    However, in terms of building 100,000 homes, we know Labor is already well behind on its plan to build new housing stock, even though the number of dwellings increased by 53,200 to 11,294,300 for the quarter ended December 2024.

    This is where Labor’s policy of increasing subsidies to apprentices in the construction industry, as well plans to invest in prefabricated and modular homes and introduce a national certification system will help. While welcomed by housing advocates, the detail surrounding exactly where the houses will be built is an important part of this new housing policy.

    The Coalition’s proposal is more radical and will require changes to legislation before it can be implemented.

    It may also need to form part of more holistic taxation reform to have the intended effect. Details are still needed as to how this reform may affect the current capital gains tax exemption and other property tax concessions for one’s principal place of residence.

    Whether the Coalition have other taxation reforms planned is yet to be revealed.

    Could these policies work?

    The latest housing policies announced by both major parties are a step in the right direction.

    However, the details are missing and concerns remain around how these policies will interact with other policy proposals and whether there will be an unintended effect of pushing up housing prices.

    Peter Dutton says the deduction scheme would save the average family about $11,000 a year.
    Andrey Popov/Shutterstock

    While increasing the supply of housing is the answer to the housing crisis, whether these houses can be built quickly is still questionable. The 5% deposit for first home buyers will go a long way in enabling first home buyers to save a deposit. However, this means the remaining 95% still needs to be repaid and first home buyers will still need to prove they can service the loan. It will also increase pressure on first home buyers if interest rates increase early in their home ownership journey.

    First home owners who want to claim a tax deduction on their mortgage interest will still need to construct a new home, which will take some time to build.

    The tax deduction will help first-home buyers in the early years of their mortgage when mortgage interest is highest. However, it does tend to favour higher income earners who receive larger tax deductions due to their higher tax brackets.

    While it does little to put downward pressure on housing prices, the Coalition has combined this with an aggressive immigration policy aimed at increasing supply of established homes.

    Given the tight and expensive market in Australia, the latest housing incentives announced by the major parties may come as welcome news to first home buyers. But any new policy must be viewed as part of the larger package of policies being offered. First home buyers are not the only ones experiencing problems with housing affordability and accessibility.

    If anything, the contest for the federal election has forced both major parties to seriously consider their housing policies and share these with the public. However, the hardest part is yet to come: whether the incoming government’s housing policy is actually effective.

    Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia, the Financial Advice Association Australia and President Elect of the Academy of Financial Services in the United States. Michelle is an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee. Michelle co-founded the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle has previously volunteered as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

    – ref. Labor and Coalition support for new home buyers welcome but other Australians also struggling with housing affordability – https://theconversation.com/labor-and-coalition-support-for-new-home-buyers-welcome-but-other-australians-also-struggling-with-housing-affordability-254451

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Celebrations as EIT Hawke’s Bay students graduate | EIT Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti

    Source: Eastern Institute of Technology – Tairāwhiti

    1 day ago

    There was a strong sense of celebration in Napier today as 300 EIT students marked the end of their study journey.

    Two ceremonies were held at the Napier Municipal Theatre on Friday (April 11), with whānau, friends and supporters gathering to mark the occasion. In total, EIT awarded 2,241 diplomas, degrees and postgraduate qualifications to Hawke’s Bay-based learners who finished their studies last year.

    The morning ceremony recognised graduates from the Centre for Veterinary Nursing, IDEAschool, Te Ūranga Waka, and the Schools of Education and Social Sciences, Primary Industries, Tourism and Hospitality, Trades and Technology, and Viticulture and Wine Science.

    A graduation parade through Napier’s city centre followed, with students, staff, and supporters cheered on by the community.

    In the afternoon, students from the Schools of Business, Computing, Health and Sport Science, and Nursing were celebrated.

    Valedictorians Elijah Rogers and Kayla Hughes delivered heartfelt speeches reflecting on their time at EIT. Olympian Nigel Avery was the special guest speaker, and Tukituki MP Catherine Wedd was also in attendance.

    EIT Interim Operations Lead Glen Harkness congratulated all those who graduated.

    “It’s always a proud moment to see our students cross the stage. Graduation is the result of hard work, focus, and a real commitment to learning. Each of our graduates can feel proud of what they’ve achieved.”

    He also acknowledged the role of EIT staff.

    “Our lecturers and tutors are passionate about supporting student success. These ceremonies are a reflection of their dedication and the high-quality programmes we continue to offer across the board. We have no doubt that these graduates’ futures look bright.”

    Graduation ceremonies were also held in March for EIT’s Tairāwhiti and Auckland students.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Serious crash, Waihi

    Source: New Zealand Police (District News)

    Emergency services are at the scene of a single-vehicle crash at the intersection of Rosemont Road and Consols Street, Waihi. 

    Police were called about 8.20pm.

    The road is closed, with diversions in place.

    Motorists are asked to avoid the area if possible.

    ENDS 

    Issued by Police Media Centre

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: ‘HK remains free port in stormy times’

    Source: Hong Kong Information Services

    Financial Secretary Paul Chan

    Allow me to take a moment to highlight why Hong Kong is the ideal strategic destination for innovation and technology businesses.

    In addition to our world-class infrastructure and business-friendly environment mentioned by Margaret (Trade Development Council Executive Director Margaret Fong), Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” arrangement has set us apart from any other city in Asia. To name just a few of our unique strengths, we have:

    – first, convenient access to the vast Chinese Mainland and Asian markets;

    – second, a trusted common law system and strong intellectual property protection;

    – third, the convergence of Mainland and international data and capital; and

    – fourth, a thriving international talent pool that attracts and nurtures the top minds from around the world.

     

    These strengths have made Hong Kong a premier launch-pad for companies looking to scale up their business in Asia and beyond.

     

    Today, we are home to over 4,700 startups, and 28% of their founders come from outside the city. For a glimpse of this dynamism, I encourage you to visit InnoEX, which showcases the ingenuity of our startups and talent, with groundbreaking innovations ranging from AI and robotics to green tech, smart mobility, and much more.

     

    Hong Kong’s appeal extends beyond these. We offer a comprehensive funding ecosystem, spanning angel investments, venture capital and private equity, to one of the world’s deepest and most liquid stock markets. Besides, together with Greater Bay Area cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou, we offer you a vibrant ecosystem that caters to the needs of innovative companies from different sectors and different stages of development. In fact, we have been ranked the world’s second most innovative cluster for five consecutive years.

     

    Ladies and gentlemen, we gather at a pivotal moment. We are witnessing a shifting global landscape marked by a daunting trade war and technological fragmentation. Trade patterns, industrial chain, supply chains and partnerships are being reshaped. In this “new normal”, many businesses will have to find new collaborators, explore untapped markets and embrace more agile business models.

     

    In these turbulent times, Hong Kong remains open and welcoming to businesses and talent from all over the world. We are eager to establish new connections and forge new partnerships. These are in our DNA. Rest assured that our free port status and free trade policy remain unshaken. We are firm in our commitment to the free flow of capital, goods, talent and information.

     

    Let me conclude by extending my gratitude to my government colleagues, the HKTDC, and all the exhibitors and partners who have brought the BIT Week to life. To our visitors: beyond networking and conducting business, please take some time to explore this vibrant city, not just our scenic hills, stunning coastlines and beautiful outlying islands, but also the 200+ Michelin-recommended restaurants. We impose no duty on wine. Coldplay was performing in our world-class Kai Tak Stadium. The Palace Museum and M+ museum are just across the harbour.

     

    I am sure you will enjoy the city, and wish you all the best of business and health for the time ahead.

     

    Financial Secretary Paul Chan made these remarks at the BIT Week 2025’s opening ceremony on April 13.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN holds a pull-aside meeting with Chief Executive Officer of AirAsia brand co

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today held a pull-aside meeting with Mr. Rudy Khaw, Chief Executive Officer of the AirAsia brand co., on the margins of the World Expo 2025. Dr. Kao commended AirAsia’s pivotal role in promoting regional connectivity, integration, and tourism, aligning ASEAN’s goals of enhancing economic growth and cooperation among member states. AirAsia is at the World Expo 2025 to join the ASEAN Trail Challenge launch, a stamp rally adventure that invites visitors to explore unique gems and untapped potentials of each member states.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN holds a pull-aside meeting with Chief Executive Officer of AirAsia brand co. at the World Expo 2025 appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Serious crash, Lower Hutt

    Source: New Zealand Police (District News)

    Emergency services are at the scene of a serious crash on Dowse Drive, Maungaraki, involving a vehicle and a pedestrian. 

    Police were called about 7.15pm. 

    The pedestrian is reportedly in serious condition. 

    The road is closed, with diversions in place. 

    Motorists should avoid the area if possible.

    ENDS 

    Issued by Police Media Centre

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-Evening Report: Voters have a clear choice. Labor’s long term and equitable tax reform or the Coalition’s big but one-off tax cuts

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

    Tang Yan Song

    The election campaign has erupted into a economic battleground as Labor and the Coalition unveiled major new tax policies at their campaign launches.

    Each policy package is aimed at addressing the mounting cost-of-living pressures facing millions of Australians.

    Labor’s flagship announcement is a new standard tax deduction of $1000 per year for work-related expenses. It represents a permanent reform designed to simplify the tax system and provide consistent, predictable relief.

    Economically, it reduces compliance costs and inefficiencies by eliminating paperwork and receipt-keeping for millions of Australians.

    According to a Blueprint Institute report, simplifying tax deductions through a standard deduction can significantly reduce compliance costs and increase economic efficiency. It potentially saves taxpayers and the government millions annually by streamlining the tax filing process.

    This change reduces errors, improves efficiency and saves both individuals and the government significant time and resources.

    A standard deduction can lead to increased compliance and fewer disputes. The Australian Taxation Office will not need to audit taxpayers who take the standard deduction. This will lower administrative costs and reduce the need for costly tax advice from accountants.

    Additionally, a simpler tax system can enhance labour market participation. It does this by removing complexity that disproportionately affects lower-income workers and those without professional tax advice.

    It also preserves the option for Australians with an unusually high number of deductions to keep deducting item by item as they currently do.

    In contrast, the Coalition’s big-ticket announcement is a one-off Cost of Living Tax Offset. It offers a refund of up to $1200 to workers earning up to $144,000 annually.

    Similar in structure to the previous Morrison government’s Low and Middle Income Tax Offset (LMITO), this measure provides short-term relief rather than systemic reform.

    Economically, the Coalition’s approach injects rapid fiscal stimulus into the economy, targeting households under significant financial strain from rising living costs.

    By providing direct rebates after the lodgment of the 2025-26 tax return, the Coalition aims to boost disposable incomes and encourage consumer spending without permanently altering tax scales.

    The temporary nature of the Coalition’s offset, priced at $10 billion, allows fiscal flexibility. It mitigates potential inflationary pressures by avoiding permanent spending increases, thereby providing immediate relief without structurally embedding costs into the budget.

    Coupled with the Coalition’s pledge to cut the fuel excise by 25¢ per litre immediately after the election, the tax offset represents a significant short-term fiscal injection. It offers immediate political advantage but limited longer-term economic reform.

    The economic debate between Labor and the Coalition has now crystallised around differing perspectives on fiscal management and economic intervention.

    Labor prioritises systemic reforms aimed at simplification and equity. The Coalition emphasises immediate, substantial cash injections to households through temporary relief measures. Both policies entail substantial fiscal commitments, yet differ markedly in their timing, permanence and structural impact on the Australian economy.

    Voters face a clear economic choice: Labor’s systemic tax simplification versus the Coalition’s aggressive short-term tax relief.

    Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Voters have a clear choice. Labor’s long term and equitable tax reform or the Coalition’s big but one-off tax cuts – https://theconversation.com/voters-have-a-clear-choice-labors-long-term-and-equitable-tax-reform-or-the-coalitions-big-but-one-off-tax-cuts-254452

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 13, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kennedy Mbeva, Research Associate, University of Cambridge

    A new world order is emerging. The United States is no longer the sole force shaping global events; countries like China, Russia, India and the Gulf states are growing in influence.

    This shift has intensified global competition and made international cooperation more challenging. In today’s world, power, not rules, is the key driver of global affairs.

    What is Africa’s role? Drawing on our research, we argue that the continent should adopt a pragmatic strategy involving two elements. First, identifying issues suitable for collective action, like climate diplomacy and a seat at the UN security council. Second, recognising those that require regional or domestic policy, such as regional conflicts and trade agreements.

    We propose this approach because Africa is not a single state or supranational entity. A grand strategy is therefore impractical. Instead, our proposal accepts that some issues are best tackled collectively, while others may require regional or unilateral action.

    New doctrines are needed

    Countries could collectively adopt something like a “doctrine”, such as the Lagos Plan of Action (1980-2000). The plan outlines an ambitious goal of boosting Africa’s self-reliance through development and economic integration. Also, the Declaration of Monrovia of 1973, which emphasises the need for collective self-reliance. This was Africa’s contribution to the calls for a new international economic order at the end of the second world war. While these documents were developed to reflect the world at that time, they may serve as an inspiration for a new strategy that reflects the emerging new world order.

    The Monroe and Truman doctrines outlined how the US could secure its global dominance. Both highlight the power of well-defined principles in guiding strategy.

    African countries could adopt a new doctrine on how the continent can enhance its position in the emerging global order. The doctrine would present an opportunity for African countries to develop a clear and coherent strategy for effective engagement, appreciating the opportunities and limitations of the new world order. It should also appreciate the difficulty of coordinating diverse countries in the continent. This is possible by building on the spirit and legacy of Lagos and Monrovia strategies.



    Read more:
    African Union’s new chair has a long list of tough tasks – what it will take to get them done

    Seismic changes

    Geoeconomics, where security and economics influence geopolitics, is reshaping Africa.

    Concerns have been raised about the possible termination of the African Growth and Opportunity Act by the US administration. This legislation grants African countries preferential access to the US market.

    For their part, African countries established the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement in 2018 to create a continental common market and reduce dependence on the global economic system.

    Yet Africa’s ambitious trade plans face threats from global shifts as well as internal dynamics. For example, the Trump administration has slammed high tariffs on virtually all trade partners, including African countries. Lesotho received the highest tariffs (50%) of all US trading partners. This might affect preferential access agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

    Other major economies such as the EU and China are also exploring opportunities to conclude bilateral trade deals with African countries. These developments could undermine the goal of creating an exclusive continental market.

    Internal dynamics within the continent are also not stable. When Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to form the Alliance of Sahel States in 2024, commentators blamed regional instability. We argue, however, that the breakup of Ecowas is a warning about the limits of integration.

    The fact that the Alliance for Sahel States is based on a security pact rather than economic integration highlights how extreme risks can reconfigure continental unity. For fragile states, securing political stability is necessary for economic integration. Security rather than economics is the primary policy concern for such states.

    Similar challenges arise in climate diplomacy. African countries, which have contributed least to global climate change, are pressured to assume greater responsibility with little international support. Yet they continue suffering its worsening impacts. At the same time, African states have received little of the international support necessary to support them to address climate action. Such support includes climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.

    African policymakers have responded creatively by making their national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement conditional on international support in finance, technology transfer and capacity-building. And they say initiatives to address climate change should also contribute to the broader goals of sustainable development.

    As we argue in a recently published book, this approach ensures that Africa can pursue sustainable development while contributing to the global climate effort. It also aligns with the continent’s long-standing emphasis on the development aspects of environmental politics.

    The solution

    Our suggestion is a simple, pragmatic concept: African countries should work together on some issues and act alone on others.

    Unlike the common African positions adopted through the African Union, this approach clearly lays out when cooperation is best and when countries should follow their own path. It offers a clear set of guiding principles such as the need for flexibility for cooperation and unilateral actions when consensus is unattainable. This can serve as a blueprint for future policies and help coordinate Africa’s diplomacy.

    This has several advantages. It’s simple and straightforward, recognises national differences while encouraging cooperation, and strengthens Africa’s voice and role on the global stage.

    A major challenge is getting all countries to agree on how flexibility should balance between consensus and unilateral action by African countries.

    But the strategy would acknowledge the need for flexibility to balance Africa’s ambition for greater global leadership. This must also be within the limits set by global and domestic realities.



    Read more:
    The African Union is weak because its members want it that way – experts call for action on its powers

    Looking forward

    As the world adjusts to a new global order where multilateralism is in decline and power politics dominate, Africa can take advantage of opportunities to shape global affairs and secure its collective policy goals. This can be done through its seat at the G20.

    But it requires a clear and coherent strategy.

    Dr Kennedy Mbeva receives funding from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment

    Reuben Makomere receives funding from University of Cambridge – Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CESR)

    – ref. Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be – https://theconversation.com/power-drives-global-affairs-today-not-rules-what-africas-strategies-should-be-251078

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 13, 2025
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