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  • MIL-OSI USA: SCHUMER DEMANDS ANSWERS: NEW YORK’S MEDICAID PORTAL JUST TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN AGAIN FOLLOWING TRUMP’S FUNDING FREEZE FIASCO LAST WEEK; SENATOR CALLS FOR FULL INVESTIGATION TO PROTECT NEARLY 7 MILLION…

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for New York Charles E Schumer

    This Morning The Medicaid Portal And All U.S. Department Of Health & Human Services Websites Were Inoperable, Affecting Payments For Approximately 7 Million New Yorkers & Blocking New Yorkers From Receiving Reimbursements For Health Care Expenses

    Today’s Shutdown Marks Second Time In Two Weeks NY Has Been Locked Out Of Payments With No Explanation; Following Trump’s Illegal Federal Funding Freeze, Schumer Says Enough Is Enough And NY-ers Deserve Answers On What Is Happening With Their Healthcare Coverage

    Schumer: Continued Medicaid Portal Shutdowns – And Fed Funding Freeze – Create Panic, Confusion & Unnecessary Frustration

    After access to NY’s Medicaid portal was rendered inoperable once again this morning for the second time following Trump’s funding freeze fiasco, U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer today demanded answers from the Trump administration’s U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to explain why the federal platform responsible for disbursing Medicaid funds for NY and other state’s was shutdown. Despite OMB saying Medicaid would not be impacted by the freeze, every state across the country reported the payment system shutting down, temporarily jeopardizing payments needed for our doctors, rural clinics, community health centers, and hospitals and creating major concerns for the millions of New Yorkers who rely on this system.

    Schumer said the unexplained shutdowns of the Medicaid portal demands a full investigation and immediate answers to ensure health care services can have the confidence they need to continue vital healthcare services.

    “Following Trump’s funding freeze chaos, out of the blue and seemingly due to callousness and incompetence, the Medicaid Portal was inexplicably offline yet again today for the second time. Nearly 7 million New Yorkers were once again potentially left high and dry on healthcare. The repeated nationwide shutdown of the Medicaid payment system caused panic, confusion, and unnecessary frustration, especially following last week’s unexplained shutdown,” said Senator Schumer. “The federal government legally owes federal funding for New York State’s Medicaid program to provide reimbursement for health care costs for millions of fellow New Yorkers. Without it doctors and hospitals in New York can’t provide the care they need. The White House refused to clarify how their illegal federal funding freeze would impact Medicaid recipients and the shutdown of the portal both last week and today only intensifies people’s deep worry. I’m demanding HHS work with Congress to swiftly and transparently determine what caused the portal shutdown and how the administration can ensure a disruption like this doesn’t happen again. New Yorkers deserve nothing less.”

    Schumer said the Medicaid portal shutdown is part of larger confusion surrounding President Trump’s executive order freezing all federal funding. Though the White House said the Medicaid program would “continue without pause,” Medicaid portals across the country temporarily stopped working. Though the portal was later restored, it again became inoperable for a few hours this morning. Schumer explained that continued shutdowns put reimbursement payments for millions of New Yorkers at risk and demanded answers to ensure a shutdown will not happen again.

    Medicaid enrollment by region can be found below:

    Region

    Medicaid Enrollment

    NYC

    4,036,284

    Long Island

    679,724

    Capital Region

    214,632

    Western New York

    371,481

    Rochester-Finger Lakes

    304,234

    Central New York

    201,047

    Southern Tier

    181,450

    Hudson Valley

    678,375

    North Country

    106,160

    Mohawk Valley

    178,001

    Schumer and Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Wyden letter to Acting Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Dorothy Fink sent prior to this morning’s shutdown can be found below:

    Dear Acting Secretary Dorothy Fink:

    We are writing to gain insight into the unlawful shutdown of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Payment Management Services (PMS) portal. As you know, the PMS portal, in addition to being the platform for hundreds of other transactions between states and HHS, serves as an interface between state Medicaid agencies and the federal government for drawing down federal funds to cover care provided to Medicaid beneficiaries in each state. As the health insurance program serving 80 million Americans, Medicaid is a key lifeline for communities across this country. The unexplained shutdown of the Medicaid portal raised questions about the continuity of care for beneficiaries and the financial stability of the providers and health centers that provide essential health care services.

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memo (M-25-13) released on January 27 instructed federal agencies to temporarily pause grant, loan, and other financial assistance programs in response to President Trump’s Executive Orders directed at freezing federal funding. Alongside the memo, OMB circulated a spreadsheet of around 2,600 federal programs, including the “Medical Assistance Program” (i.e., Medicaid), and requested federal agencies submit information on whether they complied with the executive orders. During a White House briefing on the OMB memo, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, refused to clarify whether Medicaid was specifically implicated by the funding freeze, instead stating that she will “check back on that.” Following confusion and uncertainty about which programs were affected by the freeze, OMB released clarifications to the initial memo on January 28, stating “mandatory programs like Medicaid and SNAP will continue without pause.”

    Despite this, all 56 state and territorial Medicaid programs were locked out of the PMS portal for hours, unable to access funding. Shortly after the OMB memo was circulated, the PMS portal had a red banner warning of “PAYMENT DELAYS.” It stated that “due to the Executive Orders regarding potentially unallowable grant payments,” PMS was taking additional steps to process payments that “will result in delays and/or rejections of payment.” Upon restoration of the PMS portal, some states are reporting slow and inefficient portal service, creating difficulties for providers across the country. Additionally, a red banner remains on the PMS portal, warning of truncated hours of operation – 5:00am – 4:00pm ET – “until a further notice.”

    The lack of clarity on the cause of the portal shutdown creates concern that state partners cannot rely on the PMS portal. We request that HHS work to determine and disclose the cause of the portal shutdown and make necessary improvements to prevent future disruptions in the distribution of Medicaid funding.

    Specifically, we request that you please provide answers to the following questions:

    1. Since Medicaid is exempt from the Executive Order on freezing federal funding according to a clarifying OMB memo, why were state Medicaid offices locked out of the HHS PMS portal for hours after posting of the initial OMB memo on the funding freeze?
    2. Since Medicaid is exempt from the funding freeze, what is the reason for the PMS portal’s truncated hours of operation? When will the PMS portal return to normal operating hours to ensure continuity of care for Medicaid beneficiaries?
    3. What is HHS doing to restore normal operating speed and functioning to the PMS portal to support the reimbursement process?
    4. The unexplained freeze to the PMS portal has worried state Medicaid programs that there will be delays and rejections in reimbursement claims. What is HHS doing to assure state Medicaid programs that, due to Medicaid’s exemption from the funding freeze, there will not be increases in delays or rejections of claims?
    5. How is HHS working to analyze the amount of time that each state Medicaid program was locked out of the PMS portal?
    6. How is HHS working to quickly process reimbursement claims that required prioritization during the period that state Medicaid programs were locked out of the PMS portal?
    7. How will HHS better interpret and coordinate implementation of Executive Orders to prevent another unnecessary freeze to the PMS portal?
    8. The White House has responded that the portal shutdown was due to an “outage.” If this is the case, what is HHS doing to support technical operations to prevent future shutdowns and slowdowns of the portal? What was the cause of the technical outage?

    Thank you for your attention to this urgent matter. We request a response in 30 days, by March 3, 2025.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Wyden, Colleagues Introduce Antitrust Legislation to Take on Algorithmic Price Fixing, Bring Down Costs

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore)

    February 06, 2025

    Senator says Preventing Algorithmic Collusion Act “will send a strong message to corporations that they won’t get away with coordinating to ratchet up prices on consumers.”

    Washington D.C.—U.S. Senator Ron Wyden today joined Senate colleagues to introduce legislation that would prevent companies from using algorithms to collude to set higher prices. This legislation builds off legislation Wyden introduced last year to crack down on companies that help landlords increase rents in already high-priced markets.

    “Collusion is collusion, whether you do it over the phone or using an algorithm. This legislation, along with my End Rent Fixing Act, will send a strong message to corporations that they won’t get away with coordinating to ratchet up prices on consumers,” said Wyden.

    As recent reporting, a Justice Department lawsuit, and multiple private lawsuits have shown, big corporations are using algorithms to raise prices and limit competition. This includes companies like RealPage that have facilitated collusion to increase rents by more than $3 billion in 2023 alone. This legislation would make such collusion illegal to lower costs for families and support small businesses.

    Price fixing and other forms of collusion are illegal under current antitrust laws. However, current antitrust laws may be insufficient when competing companies delegate their pricing decisions to an algorithm without agreeing to fix prices. Current law requires proof of an agreement to fix prices before condemning the conduct. When pricing decisions of multiple competitors are delegated to a single algorithm, that agreement may not exist even though the use of the algorithm may have the same effect as a traditional agreement to fix prices. This type of conduct has already occurred in rental housing.

    To strengthen current price fixing law, this Preventing Algorithmic Collusion Act would do the following:

    • Close a loophole in current law by presuming a price-fixing “agreement,” when direct competitors share non-public information through a pricing algorithm to raise prices;
    • Increase transparency by requiring companies that use algorithms to set prices to disclose that fact and give antitrust enforcers the ability to audit the pricing algorithm when there are concerns it may be harming consumers;
    • Ban companies from using non-public, competitively sensitive information from their direct competitors to inform or train a pricing algorithm;
    • Direct the Federal Trade Commission to study pricing algorithms’ impact on competition. 

    The legislation was led by U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn. Along with Wyden, the bill was co-sponsored by Senators Dick Durbin, D-Ill., Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, Ben Ray Luján, D-N.M., Chris Murphy, D-Conn., Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and Peter Welch, D-Vt. The Preventing Algorithmic Collusion Act is endorsed by Consumer Reports, the Open Markets Institute, and Accountable.US. 

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Belle Gibson built a ‘wellness’ empire on a lie about cancer. Apple Cider Vinegar expertly unravels her con

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edith Jennifer Hill, Associate Lecturer, Learning & Teaching Innovation, Flinders University

    Netflix

    Netflix’s new limited series, Apple Cider Vinegar, tells the story of the elaborate cancer con orchestrated by Australian blogger Annabelle (Belle) Gibson.

    The first episode opens with Gibson’s character (played by Kaitlyn Dever) breaking the wall between the performance and the audience, saying:

    This is a true story based on a lie. Some names have been changed to protect the innocent. Belle Gibson has not been paid for the recreation of her story.

    And from these first few seconds, we know, Gibson herself is not innocent.

    A familiar story

    For anyone who followed Gibson during her rise to fame in the 2010s – or her spectacular fall – the show feels eerily familiar.

    From the clothing, to the makeup, to the food, Apple Cider Vinegar excels in set design and staging. Every effort has been made to ensure this true story, based on a lie, looks like it did when it was unfolding on our phone screens in 2010s.

    As someone who followed Gibson closely and spent months hunting down the recalled cookbook to see if the health claims were as outlandish as I’d heard (they were), this show was a treat to watch.

    The scenes are cut with recreations of Belle’s stylised Instagram pictures of green juices, beaches and food with “no nasties”. Belle’s account was removed from Instagram after the massive public ousting of her hoax.

    Apple Cider Vinegar has done an incredible job recreating this account and breathing life back into the deleted content.

    Even after being caught out, the real Gibson claimed ‘unscrupulous natural therapists duped her into believing she was dying’, according to 60 Minutes.
    Netflix

    The cancer con

    While the core story of Apple Cider Vinegar is unpacking Gibson’s lies and path to destruction, it also shows us a very real and heartbreaking side to cancer.

    Other prominent characters include fellow influencer, Milla Blake (played by Alycia Debnam-Carey) and follower Lucy (played by Tilda Cobham-Harvey). Both of these women are battling cancer. We learn about their relationships with Gibson and how her lies so easily bled into their lives.

    We witness how alluring Gibson’s lies were for people who were desperately looking to feel “well”. We understand her magnetism, and just as easily to feel the rage of the families who watched as their loved ones deteriorated. In the words of Lucy’s partner:

    I’m not letting some influencer with a nose ring undercut years of medical research.

    Apple Cider Vinegar demonstrates how one can be taken down a path of cancer treatment quackery. The allure of alternative medicine is presented compellingly when contrasted with the painful realities of traditional cancer treatment.

    Milla, suffering from an aggressive form of cancer, seeks out alternative options after doctors recommend an amputation. She says:

    I didn’t know the words to describe the rage I felt when the doctors looked at my body and only saw disease.

    While holistic approaches to many diseases can be helpful when combined with traditional treatment, Apple Cider Vinegar illustrates how toxic it can be to “moralise” health.

    When people assign moral properties to neutral health conditions such as cancer, AIDS or COVID, this can lead to stigmatisation and feelings of being “bad”. Some characters in the show talk about how their behaviours led them to sickness and how “healthy” actions would save them (rather than medical treatment).

    The show also regularly uses language that is prominent in online health communities, such as referring to certain foods as “good” or “toxic”. In one scene, we see a character fall into a panic and call a holistic health professional after her parent takes a pain killer.

    The real story

    Apple Cider Vinegar is based on the book The Woman Who Fooled the World by Beau Donelly and Nick Toscano, two journalists who were instrumental in uncovering Gibson’s lies.

    Creator Samantha Strauss crafts this story expertly. We see Gibson’s story from all sides. We feel sympathy for her – for her childhood and loneliness – before being put in the shoes of someone whose partner is dying because they followed Gibson’s advice.

    Some characters and scenes have clearly been fabricated, such as when Gibson claims to see a doctor named “Dr Phil”. But these fabrications seem acceptable, because we are told from the beginning that’s what this show would do: create and fictionalise some characters.

    Other scenes feel very real. The character Milla Blake, a fellow influencer, is heavily inspired by the real woman who died in 2015 from epithelioid sarcoma.

    She made a platform online by sharing how she rejected traditional cancer treatment in favour of alternative treatments (Gerson therapy). Like Belle, she was a part of the inspirational speaking and author circuit at the time.

    Alycia Debnam-Carey (left) plays Milla Blake, a character based on a real woman who died from epithelioid sarcoma in 2015.
    Netflix

    In their book The Woman Who Fooled the World, Donelly and Toscano speculate about how Belle got close to this influencer (to follow her pattern of success online) and to other cancer patients, including a young boy and his family (to mimic symptoms and appear more authentic).

    Apple Cider Vinegar shows us hints of this behaviour. We see Belle begin to mimic the language of other people sharing their experiences with cancer and act in similar ways.

    Whether or not you are already familiar Gibson’s story, Apple Cider Vinegar is a compelling watch. You’ll especially love it if you enjoy non-fiction productions that play with ideas of truth such as iTonya, the Tinder Swindler and Inventing Anna.

    Apple Cider Vinegar is streaming now on Netflix.

    Edith Jennifer Hill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Belle Gibson built a ‘wellness’ empire on a lie about cancer. Apple Cider Vinegar expertly unravels her con – https://theconversation.com/belle-gibson-built-a-wellness-empire-on-a-lie-about-cancer-apple-cider-vinegar-expertly-unravels-her-con-248999

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is botulism? How this ‘nerve-paralysing illness’ can be linked to dodgy botox

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thomas Jeffries, Senior Lecturer in Microbiology, Western Sydney University

    Tijana Simic/Shutterstock

    The news last week that three people in Sydney were hospitalised with botulism after receiving botox injections has raised questions about the regulation of the cosmetic injectables industry.

    The three women allegedly received injections of unregulated anti-wrinkle products from the same provider at a Western Sydney home in January.

    The provider, who is not a registered health practitioner, is allegedly also linked to a case of botulism that occurred following a botox injection in Victoria in 2024.

    The provider has been banned from performing cosmetic procedures in New South Wales and Victoria while the incidents are investigated. Meanwhile, health authorities in both states have issued warnings about the practitioner.

    So, what exactly is botulism? And how can it be linked to botox?

    Botox and botulism

    Botox, or botulinum toxin, is a drug made from a toxin produced by the bacterium Clostridium botulinum.

    The botox toxin is a neurotoxin, which means it prevents the functioning of cells in the central nervous system. Specifically, it blocks the messages your nerves send to your muscles telling them to contract. In this way it can temporarily reduce wrinkles.

    While botox is best known for its cosmetic applications, it can also be used in the treatment of certain medical conditions, such as chronic migraines and muscle spasms.

    The toxin is used in a highly diluted form in botox injections. Notwithstanding the possibility of side effects (such as temporary pain and swelling at the injection site), botox is generally considered safe when conducted by licensed health practitioners.

    Botulism is likewise caused by a toxin produced by the bacteria C. botulinum.

    Instances of botulism linked to botox injections in the past have been attributed to counterfeit or mishandled product. Mishandling might include contamination from the toxin source in the diluted product, leading to a higher dose of the toxin, or improper refrigeration. Poor injection technique can also be a factor.

    When the botulinum toxin is not handled properly, the toxin can enter the bloodstream. This is how botulism occurs.

    Botulism can also be a food-borne illness

    C. botulinum can form spores and survive in tough conditions, meaning it can withstand many food preparation techniques.

    People who consume homemade preserved foods such as vegetables, particularly those that are not cooked during preparation, can be at a higher risk of food-borne botulism. Lower levels of salt and acid, as is the case with mild fermentation, can also increase the risk of the toxin being present.

    Botulism can be picked up from food.
    Dale Jackson/Pexels

    C. botulinum can also survive in soil and water. In this way, botulism can also be caused by bacteria from the environment. This can present as wound infections, or intestinal infection with C. botulinum in infants specifically.

    Intravenous drug users are at a higher risk of wound-borne botulism, while infants tend to suffer from gastrointestinal botulism because their gut microbiomes are still developing.

    It’s extremely rare

    Botulism is very unusual, with generally only about one case reported annually in Australia.

    However it’s very serious. It’s commonly referred to as a nerve-paralysing illness.

    Symptoms can develop within a few hours to several days after exposure to the toxin, and include drooping eyelids, difficulty breathing, facial weakness, blurred vision, difficulty swallowing and slurred speech. In infants it can cause floppy limbs and a weak cry.

    It’s treated by supporting breathing if necessary, and urgently administering a botox antitoxin, which binds to the toxin, preventing it from attaching to nerve cells in the body.

    Usually patients recover, although in some cases they may need to be in hospital for months, and sometimes symptoms such as fatigue and trouble breathing can last years.

    Botulism is fatal in 5–10% of cases.

    Botulism is a serious illness.
    Jason Grant/Shutterstock

    Is there anything people can do to stay safe?

    The cosmetic injectables industry is estimated to be worth A$4.1 billion in Australia and forecast to grow by almost 20% annually until 2030. These recent incidents in NSW and Victoria highlight the need for stronger regulation in this booming industry.

    If you’re considering a cosmetic botox injection, make sure it’s administered by a trusted professional, ideally someone registered with the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency.

    Asking your practitioner about the injectable they’re using, and ensuring the specific product is registered with the Therapeutic Goods Administration, can further limit any risk associated with botox procedures.

    If you make your own preserved foods, careful food production techniques and hygiene, as well as the addition of fermentation, acid, salt or heat treatment can limit the risk of food-borne botulism.

    Thomas Jeffries does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is botulism? How this ‘nerve-paralysing illness’ can be linked to dodgy botox – https://theconversation.com/what-is-botulism-how-this-nerve-paralysing-illness-can-be-linked-to-dodgy-botox-248765

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI China: China vows to defend interests against unilateral bullying measures: commerce spokesperson

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    In the face of unilateral bullying measures, China will definitely take necessary steps to safeguard its own rights and interests, He Yongqian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said on Thursday.

    The U.S. unilateral imposition of additional tariffs seriously violates the rules of the World Trade Organization, which is a typical manifestation of unilateralism and trade protectionism, He told a regular press conference.

    The U.S. moves severely undermine the multilateral trading system, disrupt the stability of global industrial and supply chains, and exacerbate global trade tensions, He said.

    “China will not take the initiative to provoke trade disputes and is willing to resolve issues through dialogue and consultation,” He said, adding that China is willing to join hands with other countries to jointly address the challenges of unilateralism and trade protectionism, and safeguard the orderly and stable development of international trade.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Beijing hits back after new tariffs

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    China will not initiate trade conflicts and is willing to resolve differences through dialogue, while regarding unilateral bullying measures, China will take necessary measures to firmly defend its own rights and interests, the Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday.

    The ministry made the remarks following Washington’s levy of an additional 10 percent tariff on goods imported from China.

    The unilateral imposition of tariffs by the United States seriously violates the rules of the World Trade Organization and exacerbates global trade tensions. China is willing to work with relevant countries to firmly advocate for free trade and multilateralism, jointly address the challenges of unilateralism and trade protectionism, and maintain the orderly and stable development of international trade, the ministry said.

    “China’s countermeasures aren’t meant to provoke trade disputes, but to defend national interests and international fairness,” said Cui Fan, a professor of international trade at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.

    “If the US persists in its unilateral actions, China will not hesitate to take more powerful countermeasures. China has the confidence and ability to respond to any challenge and safeguard its own rights, and contribute to the stability of the global economy,” Cui said.

    Meanwhile, China launched a series of export control policies for rare metal products and related technologies on Tuesday. The ministry said the export control on tungsten and other related items is an international practice. The listed items this time have certain attributes for military and civilian use, and the downstream products boast high military risks.

    “The move indicates China’s consistent stance of maintaining world peace and regional stability. The Chinese government will approve export applications that comply with regulations,” said He Yongqian, a spokeswoman for the commerce ministry.

    The ministry also put US clothing company PVH Corp and biotechnology company Illumina Inc on its unreliable entity list on Tuesday. The two firms violate normal market trading principles, interrupt normal transactions with Chinese enterprises, take discriminatory measures against Chinese firms, and seriously damage the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies, the ministry said.

    “China has always handled export controls and unreliable entity lists with caution. The Chinese government is willing to strengthen cooperation with different countries to jointly maintain the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains. We welcome foreign enterprises to invest and develop in China, and we are committed to providing a stable, fair and predictable business environment for law-abiding and compliant foreign enterprises,” she said.

    Separately, the US Postal Service announced on Wednesday that it will continue accepting all inbound mail and packages from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, quickly reversing the suspension that went into effect on Tuesday.

    In addition, the US government has canceled the “de minimis” tariff exemption rule for small packages and low-value items imported from China — a measure that exempted shipments worth less than $800 from import duties.

    The Ministry of Commerce said the US levying of an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese products and the adjustment of its “de minimis” policy will undoubtedly increase the cost of consumption for US shoppers and affect their purchasing experiences.

    “No matter how a country adjusts its trade policy, cross-border e-commerce shopping boasts strong competitiveness, and the trend of digital development in international trade will not change. We hope that the US can follow the trend and create a fair and predictable policy environment for the development of cross-border e-commerce,” said He.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Hamas urges Arab League, OIC to hold emergency sessions on Trump’s Gaza relocation proposal

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    Hamas on Thursday called on the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to convene emergency sessions to address U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to relocate Palestinians from Gaza, urging for a strong, unified stance against these plans.

    In a press release, Hamas leader Mahmoud Mardawi called for coordinated diplomatic efforts at both the Arab and international levels, emphasizing the need for a united Palestinian stance against any proposals that undermine their rights or aim to displace them from their land.

    He also called for strengthening Palestinian unity and forming a unified front to develop a comprehensive strategy for addressing the threats to Gaza and Palestine as a whole, emphasizing that the response should involve a coordination of political, diplomatic, and practical measures.

    The Hamas leader also strongly rejected Trump’s proposals, describing them as “racist” and a continuation of settlement policies aimed at undermining the Palestinian cause, striping Palestinians of their rights, and displacing them from their homeland.

    “Our Palestinian people — whether in Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem, or within Israel — will never give up their rights or allow themselves to be displaced. Trump’s remarks are just another illusion from an American administration that favors the occupation, and this scheme will collapse as all previous ones,” he said.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: More Mideast countries reject Trump’s Gaza relocation plan

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    A Palestinian child is seen on a destroyed building in Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, on Jan. 29, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    More countries in the Middle East on Thursday voiced their rejection of a proposal by U.S. President Donald Trump to take control of the Gaza Strip and relocate its residents elsewhere.

    On Tuesday, Trump suggested that the United States will take over Gaza and redevelop it after Palestinians are relocated elsewhere. He made these remarks in a joint press conference at the White House with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    Many Arab and Muslim countries have voiced their opposition to the idea of displacing the Gazans from their homeland.

    The Palestinian presidency on Thursday said that Palestine and its land, history, and holy sites are not for sale, emphasizing that the rights of the Palestinian people are neither negotiable nor subject to compromise.

    In a press statement, Nabil Abu Rudeineh, the spokesman of the Palestinian presidency, said, “The Palestinian people, who have made immense sacrifices in defense of their national rights, will not relinquish even an inch of their land, including the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem.”

    Any proposed solutions, he insisted, must align with international legitimacy and the Arab Peace Initiative.

    Egypt reaffirmed its commitment on Thursday to collaborate with international partners and allies to implement plans for Gaza’s early recovery, rubble removal, and reconstruction within a specific timeframe.

    This plan will be implemented as the Palestinians will remain in the Gaza Strip, who refuse to be displaced, according to a statement by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.

    The statement also rejected “any proposal or vision” that seeks to resolve the Palestinian issue by uprooting the Palestinian people, displacing them from their historical land, or seizing that land, whether temporarily or permanently, while affirming that Egypt will not be “party to any such actions.”

    Algeria on Thursday strongly condemned the proposal aimed at displacing Gaza residents, warning that such moves are part of a broader scheme to undermine the Palestinian national cause.

    In a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Algeria reiterated its firm stance that achieving lasting peace in the Middle East is inseparable from upholding the rights of the Palestinian people to an independent state.

    Algeria underscored its support for the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state based on the two-state solution, considering it “the only just and permanent resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

    The Libyan Foreign Ministry on Thursday also rejected any attempt to displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank.

    “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the State of Libya confirms its firm and supportive position on the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people … foremost among which is the right of the Palestinian people to establish their independent state with Jerusalem as its capital,” the ministry said in a statement.

    “Libya stresses its absolute rejection of any practices aimed at the forced displacement or arbitrary expulsion of Palestinians, changing the demographic composition of the occupied territories, or imposing racist policies that perpetuate the occupation and violate the most basic human rights,” the statement noted.

    It condemned any “acts of violence targeting civilians or acts used as a pretext to perpetuate the occupation and undermine the chances of achieving a just peace.”

    On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rejected the proposal during a joint press conference in Ankara with his visiting German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

    “Everyone has a great responsibility in maintaining the ceasefire in Gaza. As the international community, we must continue our efforts for a two-state solution,” Erdogan emphasized.

    In response to Trump’s proposal, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that “neither the region nor we (as Türkiye) can accept such a situation.”

    “The very thought of it is a pointless endeavor. We oppose any initiatives that seek to exclude the people of Gaza from the equation,” Fidan said during a live televised speech.

    “Obviously, it is completely unacceptable, and by no means can it bring peace to the region,” Gulru Gezer, a former Turkish diplomat and foreign policy analyst, told Xinhua on Thursday. “On the contrary, it will only bring greater chaos, not only to Palestine and Israel but to the broader Middle East.”

    During a meeting on Thursday with Palestinian Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Mustafa, Arab League (AL) Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul-Gheit reiterated the U.S. proposal for displacing the Gazans was rejected by Arab countries, according to a statement by the AL.

    During the meeting, Aboul-Gheit urged to speed up reconstruction of the Gaza Strip to block the path to the displacement of Gazans.

    “The Palestinian people will not allow the repetition of cleansing Palestinians under the pretext of voluntary or forced exit,” the statement added.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Year of the Snake starts with travel, spending boom

    Source: China State Council Information Office 3

    Passengers are seen at the waiting hall of Beijing South Railway Station in Beijing, capital of China, Feb. 4, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    As China celebrated the arrival of the Year of the Snake, the festive atmosphere was reflected in a surge in travel and consumer spending. With tourism booming, restaurants bustling, and box offices setting new records, the festivities showcased China’s economic vitality.

    The Spring Festival, China’s most important festival, sparked a nationwide travel surge as families reunited and celebrations took place across the country. Official data showed that more than 2.3 billion passenger trips were made nationwide during the eight-day Spring Festival holiday, which concluded on Tuesday.

    Official projections estimated over 9 billion passenger trips during the 40-day Spring Festival travel rush that officially began on Jan. 14.

    The annual migration — once dominated by homebound travelers — now sees a growing number of people opting for holiday getaways, filling train stations, highways, and airports in celebration of the Year of the Snake.

    Tourism soars on heritage charm

    With China’s Spring Festival now on the UNESCO Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity, cultural exploration-centered tours have become increasingly popular.

    Online searches for “intangible cultural heritage tourism” jumped 174 percent since the beginning of this year, while folk craft-related searches spiked 321 percent, according to Meituan Travel. On the popular video-sharing platform Douyin, demand for intangible cultural heritage tours led to a 462 percent year-on-year rise in group tour bookings for folk fairs.

    According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, China saw a record 501 million domestic tourist trips during the just-concluded holiday, up 5.9 percent year on year. Tourist spending reached a record high of over 677 billion yuan (94.43 billion U.S. dollars) during the period, a 7 percent increase from the previous year.

    The cultural allure extended beyond domestic travelers, attracting visitors from around the globe. The latest data from the National Immigration Administration showed about 14.37 million cross-border trips were made during the holiday, up 6.3 percent from last year’s Spring Festival holiday. Of these, 958,000 trips were made by foreign nationals, marking a 22.9 percent increase.

    Foreign tourists try to make tofu during a folk celebration of the Spring Festival in Wayaogang Village, Yongding District of Zhangjiajie City, central China’s Hunan Province, Jan. 24, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    According to Chinese online travel service giant Trip.com Group, inbound travel orders during the Spring Festival holiday rose 203 percent year on year, underscoring the growing international appeal of China’s cultural and natural landmarks.

    Among the top destinations was Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province, renowned for its spectacular mountain scenery that inspired scenes in global blockbusters. Malaysian tourist Vincent Koh Swee Sam was among the many international visitors drawn to cultural heritage in Zhangjiajie. Immersing himself in local festivities, Sam joined villagers in writing Spring Festival couplets, pounding glutinous rice cakes, and making tofu.

    Sam’s hands-on experience with Chinese calligraphy deepened his appreciation for the art. “I used to know China only through textbooks and maps,” he said. “But now that I have stepped into it myself, it feels so good.”

    Dining boom feeds festive spirit

    No Spring Festival is complete without a grand feast, and this year, more families chose to dine out for ease and variety, driving a surge in restaurant bookings.

    In Shanghai’s bustling city center, all 91 tables at the renowned Cantonese restaurant Xinya were packed with diners on Chinese New Year’s Eve, according to executive chef Huang Renkang.

    People have a reunion meal at a restaurant in Nanjing City, east China’s Jiangsu Province, Jan. 28, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    According to the Ministry of Commerce (MOC), the revenues of key restaurants tracked by the ministry climbed 5.1 percent year on year in the first four days of the holiday.

    Online platforms saw a similar rise. Meituan reported a 305 percent year-on-year increase in online bookings for Chinese New Year’s Eve dinners, while high-end restaurants featuring Chinese culinary experiences saw significant growth.

    Notably, orders for “intangible cultural heritage” meal packages searched on Meituan soared over 12 times year on year since the beginning of this year.

    Box office hits record high

    From Chinese mythology to homegrown animation, this year’s Spring Festival film lineup drew massive crowds and posted record-breaking sales.

    China’s box office sales jumped to an all-time high of 9.51 billion yuan over the holiday period, while attendance also set a new record, with 187 million moviegoers packing theaters.

    People watch a film at a cinema in Feidong County, Hefei City, east China’s Anhui Province, Feb. 3, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    Leading the charge was the animated feature “Ne Zha 2,” which grossed around 4.84 billion yuan.

    “The moviegoers’ enthusiasm indicates vibrant consumption during the holiday as well as the consumers’ confidence in domestic productions,” said Rao Shuguang, president of the China Film Critics Association.

    Experts attributed the success to strong audience anticipation, beloved characters and stories, and high-quality storytelling.

    “The strong performance of these films lays a solid foundation for the steady growth of China’s film market in 2025,” noted Chen Jin, a data analyst from box office tracker Beacon.

    Policy boost sparks shopping spree

    Festive cheer and consumer enthusiasm energized the market even before the holiday began. With the country’s trade-in program driving demand, shoppers eagerly seized the opportunity to upgrade cars, home appliances, and digital devices, ushering in a vibrant holiday shopping season.

    People visit a flower market in Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, south China’s Guangdong Province, Jan. 27, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    The MOC reported receiving subsidy applications for 10.79 million electronic devices over a four-day period starting Jan. 20. This follows the inclusion of mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches in the trade-in subsidy program, marking a significant expansion of the initiative launched in March last year.

    Moreover, according to the ministry, automobile trade-ins reached 34,000 while home appliance trade-ins reached 1.04 million units as of Jan. 23.

    Building on this momentum, online retail sales grew by 5.8 percent during the eight-day holiday, while sales of home appliances and communication equipment at key retailers jumped by over 10 percent.

    “Spring Festival offers a glimpse into the year’s economic trends,” said Chen Lifen, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council.

    In this holiday season, a blend of cultural experiences and new consumption scenarios has helped reinforce the economic recovery momentum, injecting confidence into the economy and setting a strong foundation for the year ahead, Chen noted.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Transforming Insulated Glass Worldwide with Glavenir Pushing Equipment Development Beyond “Amazing!”:Takeshi Shimizu

    Source: Panasonic

    Headline: Transforming Insulated Glass Worldwide with Glavenir
    Pushing Equipment Development Beyond “Amazing!”:Takeshi Shimizu

    We take an up-close and personal look at the people who are supporting the Panasonic Group’s growth at their own operational frontlines.

    Vol.3

    VIG Business Promotion Department, Exterior Products & Systems Business Division Panasonic Housing Solutions Co., Ltd.
    After graduating from university, Shimizu was involved in developing plasma displays (PDP) and OLED displays. In 2016, he transitioned to his current role, leveraging the production process skills gained from PDP development.

    Vacuum Insulated Glass (VIG) Glavenir is a product that applies the internal structure of the plasma displays (PDP) I once worked on. I am responsible for everything related to its manufacturing, from process development to production. Glavenir offers exceptional thermal insulation while being thin and lightweight. It significantly enhances the insulation performance of refrigerated and frozen display cases as well as residential buildings. Additionally, reducing thickness and minimizing raw material usage significantly cuts CO₂ emissions both during production and after installation. When we showcased this technology at CES (one of the world’s largest technology trade show held annually in January in Las Vegas, U.S.A.), it attracted significant attention.
    When VIG was first adopted by Hussmann for incoming orders of walk-in cooler automatic doors, incidents of breakage did occur. I still vividly remember the faces of the struggling workers when I first visited the site. To supply a high-strength, cost-effective VIG, we developed a sealing technology that eliminates the need for exhaust tubes*, along with proprietary equipment and optimized settings to make it possible. In just one year, we successfully created and launched a sleek, reinforced VIG without exhaust tubes. Solving a fundamental challenge for the field was an incredibly meaningful experience.
    ＊ Exhaust tube: A glass tube that connects to the interior of VIG, used to evacuate air and create a vacuum inside
    My current focus is on selling manufacturing lines to glass factories in Europe and North America. Initially, we only sold the core equipment, but after recognizing the benefits of shorter setup times, we decided to offer complete manufacturing lines as a packaged solution. However, external buyers expressed concerns about whether the production line could truly achieve high efficiency, whether the costs were justifiable, and whether speed alone was enough—emphasizing that durability and mass-production stability were equally critical. These challenges made me realize that the key was maximizing productivity at the lowest possible cost while ensuring buyers felt confident in their investment.
    To address this, I refined a method that combines general-purpose equipment with customized components tailored to each customer. By pushing the speed of individual systems to their limits while increasing stability, we were able to minimize costs. When potential buyers visited a fully operational production line in Japan and responded with enthusiasm, describing it as both amazing and spectacular, I felt a deep sense of fulfillment, knowing that our efforts had paid off.
    Moving forward, I will continue developing equipment that is even more impressive. Eventually, I aim to create a curved VIG for mobility applications such as automobiles and trains.

    Shimizu is in the middle.

    My Life My Leisure Time
    I enjoy lively gatherings over drinks, and recently, I had a relaxing time at a dinner party at a senior colleague’s home. Everyone there had been involved in driving the VIG business from the very beginning, and without each of them, we wouldn’t be where we are today. I will continue working alongside this team to contribute to “Live Your Best.”

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Aiming for a Clean, Decarbonized Society with Panasonic HX: Shigeki Yasuda

    Source: Panasonic

    Headline: Aiming for a Clean, Decarbonized Society with Panasonic HX: Shigeki Yasuda

    Trailblazer in Building the Foundation of the Hydrogen Business
    Shigeki Yasuda
    Global Environmental Business Development CenterPanasonic Corporation
    Shigeki Yasuda joined the company in 2003, specializing in fuel cell technology development. In 2010, he was assigned to Germany, where he contributed to introducing fuel cells to the European market. In 2024, he assumed his current position, working on implementing a demonstration facility to power factories with renewable energy and building the business foundation for Panasonic HX.

    Pioneering the First Overseas Integration of Three Types of Energy Sources
    Since May 2024, I have been working in the UK on implementing a demonstration facility that powers factories with renewable energy and building the business foundation for Panasonic HX*¹. My mission is to advance the first overseas integration of pure hydrogen fuel cell generators, photovoltaic generators, and storage batteries. This involves (1) introducing a demonstration facility to Panasonic Manufacturing UK Ltd., (2) building the business foundation for future social implementation, and (3) developing new markets for fuel cells overseas.＊1: The name Panasonic HX represents Panasonic’s energy solutions utilizing hydrogen. We propose a new option for the full-scale use of hydrogen (H), which has a low environmental impact, and are determined to contribute to the transformation (X) to a decarbonized society through collaboration (X) with partner companies, administrations, and business customers.

    This is a CG image symbolizing the Panasonic HX. It is not a facility that actually exists.

    In December 2024, Panasonic introduced its first overseas demonstration facility in the UK, leveraging 25 years of expertise in fuel cell technology to supply factories with electricity and thermal energy using hydrogen. This facility serves as a showcase for co-creation with partner companies, governments, and business customers to pursue a decarbonized society while laying the foundation for Panasonic’s hydrogen business. Utilizing hydrogen as a clean energy source is crucial in addressing global environmental challenges through decarbonization. This demonstration, which enables factories to be powered by renewable energy, marks a significant step toward broader social implementation.
    We are also working to apply the data and know-how gained from the demonstration in the UK to future projects. The main challenges we faced in this initiative were: (1) a lack of knowledge about construction processes in the UK, requiring us to navigate everything from scratch and quickly resolve various unforeseen issues, (2) difficulties in discussing with the design firm regarding safety design, highlighting the need to raise awareness of hydrogen safety, and (3) the complexity of collaborating with local partners, as failing to align expectations at the contract stage made it difficult to proceed as planned.

    In overcoming these challenges, the most invaluable support came from the persistence of our colleagues, especially the assistance from Japan. With only three core members leading the launch, we sometimes found ourselves stuck in rigid thinking and faced moments of isolation. However, the strong support from Japan reassured us, allowing us to stay positive even when obstacles arose. Everyone was united in the determination to see it through, and even the faintest glimmer of hope helped us find a path forward.

    Leading the Way Until Success is Achieved

    Staying at the forefront is important when it comes to enhancing competitiveness. Doing so lets us quickly gather customer feedback and gain an advantage through our products and services. In this process, it is essential to embrace the Customer Focus principle of always thinking from a customer’s perspective, as advocated by PLP*2.Having spent my career in technology, my work often remained within that sphere. However, stepping outside and engaging directly with customers made me realize how vastly different cultures can be. From my experience in the UK, I am convinced that the key to enhancing competitiveness lies in rapidly iterating the PDCA cycle to integrate customer feedback into business development. Recently, I have also come to appreciate the importance of a two-way approach—effectively communicating the value of hydrogen while actively listening to our customers.＊2: Panasonic Leadership Principles are a set of behavioral guidelines for each and every employee to follow in their efforts to put the Basic Business Philosophy into practice.
    Our top priority is to enhance the competitiveness of the three-battery integration, make it a unique, industry-leading solution and develop it into a robust product and service. We are dedicated to advancing Panasonic’s strengths and will first introduce it to the environmentally advanced European market before expanding it globally in the future.

    I have been involved in fuel cell development since joining Panasonic. I take great pride in playing a role in the practical application of hydrogen, a clean energy source, in society. My dream is to help build a foundation where hydrogen is a natural part of everyday life, ensuring that future generations can live comfortably in a sustainable environment.
    This demonstration is merely the starting point. With a strong sense of responsibility as a frontrunner, I will continue moving forward alongside our customers until we fully realize the value we aim to deliver.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI China: Job fair held in Jiande City in E China

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Job fair held in Jiande City in E China

    Updated: February 7, 2025 09:11 Xinhua
    A livestreamer introduces job recruitment requirements of companies in a livestreaming session at a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Feb. 6, 2025. A job fair was held here on Thursday. Over 120 enterprises from a variety of industries such as new energy, new materials, intelligent manufacturing and biomedicine participated in the job fair, providing more than 3,000 jobs. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Staff members of a training base demonstrate the production of a local food made with tofu at a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Jobseekers attend a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    An aerial drone photo taken on Feb. 6, 2025 shows a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province. [Photo/Xinhua]
    A jobseeker talks to recruiters at a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Jobseekers attend a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Staff members of a training base offer drone training at a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Staff members from local labor and social security department provide consultation on relevant regulations to job seekers at a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    An aerial drone photo taken on Feb. 6, 2025 shows a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province. [Photo/Xinhua]
    A jobseeker talks to a recruiter at a job fair held in Jiande City, east China’s Zhejiang Province, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Japan: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission

    Source: International Monetary Fund

    February 7, 2025

    A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

    The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

    Washington, DC – February 7, 2025[1]:

    After three decades of near-zero inflation, there are signs that Japan’s economy can sustainably converge to a new equilibrium. Inflation has surpassed the Bank of Japan’s 2-percent target for over two years and a tight labor market is delivering the strongest wage growth since the 1990s. But Japan continues to face challenges from its aging population and high public debt. Policy priorities are to re-anchor inflation expectations, rebuild fiscal buffers, and advance labor market reforms to support potential growth.

    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS

    The economy contracted in the first half of 2024 due to temporary supply disruptions but gained momentum in the rest of the year. Domestic demand, private consumption in particular, has strengthened, while net external demand has been sluggish. Both headline and core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) remain above the BoJ’s 2-percent headline inflation target. Goods inflation has been boosted by energy and food prices, while services price growth is relatively weaker and below 2 percent. Inflation expectations are becoming increasingly aligned with the inflation target, though some measures remain below that target. The yen-dollar exchange rate has experienced sizable swings, largely driven by shifts in interest rate differentials (which reflect broader macroeconomic developments), but also amplified by the build-up and subsequent unwinding of yen carry-trade positions. The pass-through to inflation is estimated to have been relatively mild so far. Wages are growing at their highest rate since the 1990s amid labor shortages and strong inflation, but they have remained lackluster in real terms.

    Growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, with private consumption strengthening further, as above-inflation wage growth will boost households’ disposable income. Private investment is also expected to remain strong, supported by high corporate profits and accommodative financial conditions. The output gap is estimated to be closed, and growth is expected to converge to its potential of 0.5 percent in the medium term. Headline and core inflation are expected to converge to the BoJ’s 2-percent headline inflation target in late 2025, helped by a moderation in commodity prices for oil and food. The current account surplus is expected to moderate in 2025 as the income balance narrows, with the trade balance remaining in deficit. The external position is assessed as broadly in line with the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.

    Risks to growth are tilted to the downside. On the external side, these include a slowdown in the global economy, deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and increasing trade restrictions, and more volatile food and energy prices. On the domestic side, the main downside risk is weak consumption if real wages do not pick up. Another domestic risk to the outlook is a possible decline in confidence in fiscal sustainability that leads to a tightening of financial conditions in the context of high public debt and gross financing needs. If downside risks materialize, it could result in Japan reverting to an effective-lower-bound constrained environment given the still-low level of the policy rate. 

    Risks to inflation are broadly balanced. On the downside, inflation expectations may stall below the headline inflation target following Japan’s prolonged experience with low inflation. Upside risks stem from rising food and energy prices, and from stronger-than-expected wages in the upcoming spring wage negotiations. Higher barriers to trade and cost pressures in major trading partners could spill over to Japan but the impact on domestic prices would be ambiguous given lower economic activity.

    ECONOMIC POLICIES

    Fiscal Policy

    The estimated fiscal deficit in 2024 is smaller than expected at the time of the 2024 Article IV. Tax revenues have been boosted by high corporate profits, and expenditures to support the economic recovery (such as transfers to households and SMEs) have been partly phased out. The fiscal deficit is projected to increase slightly in 2025, with additional spending planned for defense, children-related measures, and industrial policies (IP). There is a significant risk that the deficit will widen further, given the political demands on the minority government. This should be avoided as fiscal space remains limited: any expansionary measure should be offset by higher revenues or expenditure savings elsewhere in the budget.

    Public debt, as a share of GDP, is expected to decline in the near term, as nominal GDP growth is projected to exceed the effective interest rate on public debt. Public debt will remain high, however, and is estimated to start rising by 2030, driven by a higher interest bill and expenditure pressures related to spending on health and long-term care for an aging population. A clear consolidation plan is needed even in the near term to fully offset these pressures, ensure debt sustainability, and increase fiscal space needed to respond to shocks (including from natural disasters). This will require elaborating concrete and credible expenditure and revenue measures in the context of a robust medium-term fiscal framework:

    • The composition of public spending should be more growth-friendly, including by eliminating poorly targeted subsidies, notably energy subsidies, while preserving expenditure on high-quality public investment. Enhancing the targeting and efficiency of social security spending is critical to containing rising costs while preserving quality.
    • On the revenue side, options include strengthening financial income taxation for high-income earners, lowering exemptions and broadening the taxable valuation base under the property tax, streamlining income tax deductions, and unifying and eventually increasing the consumption tax rate. The PIT reform to the income deduction limit that is currently under consideration would need to be financed by additional revenues or savings elsewhere in the budget.
    • The repeated use, and incomplete execution of supplementary budgets undermines efficient resource allocation, budget transparency, and fiscal discipline. The use of supplementary budgets should be limited to responding to large, unexpected shocks that overwhelm automatic stabilizers, which would also avoid providing unwarranted stimulus in normal times. All medium-term spending commitments—including on IP and green transformation—should be incorporated into the regular budget process.

    As interest rates rise, the cost of servicing the large public debt is expected to double by 2030, putting a premium on a robust debt management strategy. In the face of rising gross financing needs and a shrinking BoJ balance sheet, government bond issuance will need to rely on additional demand from foreign investors and domestic institutions.

    Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

    The current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate and will ensure inflation expectations rise sustainably to the 2-percent inflation target. Accommodation should continue to be withdrawn gradually if the baseline forecast bears out, under which we expect the policy rate would reach a neutral level by end-2027. High domestic and external uncertainty underscore the need for the BoJ to maintain its data-dependent and flexible approach and clear communications to anchor market expectations.

    The BOJ’s ongoing reduction in the size of its balance sheet has been clearly communicated, is appropriately modest in pace, and is proceeding smoothly. The BoJ should stand ready to modify the pace of its purchases should disorderly bond market conditions arise or if financial conditions become inconsistent with the desired monetary policy stance.

    Japan’s large stock of outstanding government debt and sizable net international investment position provide an important transmission channel for monetary policy to spill over into asset prices abroad. Clear communication and gradualism can limit adverse asset price reactions and outward spillovers.

    The authorities’ continued commitment to a flexible exchange rate regime is welcome. Exchange rate flexibility should continue to help absorb external shocks and support monetary policy’s focus on price stability. At the same time, it will also help maintain an external position in line with fundamentals.

    Financial Stability

    Japan’s financial system remains broadly resilient, supported by strong capital and liquidity buffers. Banks’ revenues have generally increased as credit costs remain low, the rise in interest rates has been gradual, and the yen has depreciated. Major banks continue to manage interest rate risks proactively through portfolio rebalancing and diversifying their funding sources. Financial intermediation remains stable supported by continued demand for loans from both corporate and household sectors. The insurance sector is well-capitalized and profitable, despite challenges from market volatility and demographic shifts.

    While the financial system remains generally resilient, systemic risk has risen slightly since the 2024 Article IV consultation, reflecting a combination of rising macroeconomic uncertainty, risk of faster than expected interest rates increases or unrealized losses, and rising bankruptcies among SMEs. Rising global macroeconomic uncertainty could impact Japanese banks’ investments. While gradually rising interest rates have helped bank profitability, faster-than-expected increases in interest rates or sudden changes in global financial conditions could amplify financial market volatility and interact with three persisting vulnerabilities identified in the 2024 FSAP: large securities held under mark-to-market accounting, significant foreign currency exposures—particularly through US dollar funding instruments—and signs of overheating in some areas of real estate. A faster-than-expected tightening of financial conditions could also disrupt the JGB market, amplifying interest rate risks for banks with larger exposures. Less-capitalized domestic banks are more vulnerable to rate hikes, facing heightened risks from unrealized losses and higher funding costs. Corporate defaults among smaller SMEs have been increasing, albeit from a low base, and could pose risks for regional banks with high SME loan exposure. 

    Strengthening systemic risk monitoring and the macroprudential policy framework is needed to better mitigate risks in the financial system. Ongoing efforts to expand data collection, enhance analytical capacity, and improve coordination between the FSA and BOJ are welcome. To further enhance systemic risk analysis, closing remaining data gaps and advancing analytical tools for a more comprehensive assessment of systemic vulnerabilities, including those related to foreign currency exposure, remain key priorities. Assigning a formal mandate to the Council for Cooperation on Financial Stability would reinforce the institutional framework, while expanding the macroprudential policy toolkit with targeted borrower-based measures would help mitigate vulnerabilities in the real estate sector.

    Further strengthening financial sector oversight is essential to bolster stability and resilience against emerging risks and vulnerabilities. While progress has been made in expanding staffing resources in certain areas, additional allocations are needed to reinforce financial supervision. The authorities should continue to enhance risk-based supervision to respond flexibly to an evolving banking system. Strengthening the Early Warning System with more forward-looking indicators, especially for credit and liquidity risks, and establishing minimum liquidity requirements for domestic banks would enhance stability. Supervisors should also have the authority to adjust bank capital ratios above minimum requirements based on individual risk profiles and financial conditions.

    The authorities should remain prepared to address market strains as they arise. The liquidity and functioning of the JGB market have improved since April but experienced temporary deterioration in early August amid a spike in market volatility. Rising foreign market volatility could impact domestic liquidity conditions, potentially triggering spillover effects. To mitigate these risks the central bank should closely monitor liquidity conditions and funding rates in money markets, while paying particular attention to the uneven distribution of liquidity among banks as well as the growth in repo transactions driven by demand from financial dealers and foreign investors. The scope of institutions eligible to receive emergency liquidity assistance could be expanded to nonbank financial institutions, prioritizing central counterparties. Recovery and Resolution Planning should be gradually expanded to all banks that could be systemic at failure, requiring more banks to maintain a minimum amount of loss-absorbing capacity tailored to their resolvability needs.

    Structural Policies

    Japan’s total factor productivity growth has been slowing for a decade and has fallen further behind the United States. A steady decline in allocative efficiency since the early 2000s has been a drag on productivity, and likely reflects an increase in market frictions. In addition, Japan’s ultra-low interest rates may have allowed low-productivity firms to survive longer than they otherwise would have, delaying necessary economic restructuring. Reforms aimed at improving labor mobility across firms would help improve Japan’s allocative efficiency and boost productivity.

    Japan’s labor market is expected to witness a significant transformation driven by population aging and advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Japan is aging rapidly—a trend that is expected to continue over coming decades—and has been at the forefront in labor-saving automation to alleviate labor shortages. Policies can play a crucial role in mitigating the impact of aging on labor supply and facilitating mobility needed to benefit from AI adoption:

    • Thanks to government efforts, Japan’s seniors already have a relatively high labor force participation rate compared to other OECD countries. But policy frictions such as an income threshold that triggers a loss of pension benefits may be inducing seniors to work fewer hours than they otherwise would.
    • Japan has made significant progress in increasing female labor force participation during the last decade. Further supporting women’s ability to fully participate in the labor force will require continuing to expand childcare resources and facilitate fathers’ contribution to home/childcare, and further encouraging the use of flexible working arrangements.
    • Training programs are crucial to enhance the complementarity of AI with the labor force and improve the productivity of senior workers.
    • Improving mobility and reducing barriers to job switching are essential to address labor shortages due to aging and the potential job displacement impact of AI. Subsidized training programs that are targeted to in-demand occupations could help reskill and upskill the labor force and facilitate occupational mobility.

    While AI may help to address some of Japan’s labor shortages, and since upskilling/reskilling the labor force takes time, attracting foreign workers could help alleviate labor shortages. Government programs have led to a tripling of the number of foreign workers in Japan during the past decade. However, foreigners continue to play a much smaller role in the Japanese labor force than they do in other OECD economies.

    Similar to other G20 economies, Japan has increased its adoption of industrial policies. Japan’s industrial policies aim to advance several objectives, including economic security, resilience, inclusive growth, and green and digital transformation (the latter including support for the semiconductor industry). Under this umbrella, multi-year envelopes of 20 trillion and 10 trillion yen have been identified for green transformation and the semiconductor/AI industries, respectively. Given Japan’s limited fiscal space and the unclear growth impact of past IP, industrial policy schemes should be subjected to a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. Going forward, IP should be narrowly targeted to specific objectives when externalities or market failures exist, to minimize distortions. It should avoid favoring domestic products over imports or creating incentives that lead to a fragmentation of the global system for trade and investment, in line with Japan’s commitment to multilateral economic cooperation.

    Japan remains committed to green transformation, and further progress on policies would enable reaching its targets. Notable ongoing efforts—such as the issuance of climate transition bonds to finance government green investment, and the implementation of carbon credits trading—are in line with international practices and previous staff advice. Nevertheless, without further policy changes, Japan is likely to fall short of its targets. To help meet its green commitments while boosting growth, a combination of policies is needed. Options include the removal of energy subsidies, the expansion of carbon pricing, feebates and tradable performance standards. Carbon pricing would need to be accompanied by targeted cash transfers to protect the vulnerable from adverse distributional effects.

    The IMF team would like to thank the authorities and other interlocutors in Japan for the frank and open discussions.

    Table 1. Japan: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021-26

    Nominal GDP: US$ 4,213 billion (2023)

    GDP per capita: US$ 33,849 (2023)

    Population: 124 million (2023)

    Quota: SDR 30.8 billion (2023)

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    Est.

    Proj.

    (In percent change)

    Growth

      Real GDP

    2.7

    0.9

    1.5

    -0.2

    1.1

    0.8

      Domestic demand

    1.7

    1.5

    0.4

    0.2

    1.2

    0.8

        Private consumption  

    0.7

    2.1

    0.8

    -0.3

    0.9

    0.6

        Gross Private Fixed Investment

    1.3

    1.6

    1.5

    0.6

    1.1

    0.8

        Business investment  

    1.7

    2.6

    1.5

    1.3

    1.2

    0.9

        Residential investment  

    -0.3

    -2.7

    1.5

    -2.4

    0.8

    0.4

        Government consumption   

    3.4

    1.4

    -0.3

    1.0

    1.3

    1.2

        Public investment   

    -2.6

    -8.3

    1.5

    -1.2

    0.3

    0.0

        Stockbuilding

    0.5

    0.2

    -0.3

    0.1

    0.1

    0.0

      Net exports

    1.0

    -0.5

    1.0

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.1

        Exports of goods and services

    11.9

    5.5

    3.0

    0.7

    2.9

    2.0

        Imports of goods and services

    5.2

    8.3

    -1.5

    2.0

    2.9

    1.8

    Output Gap

    -1.6

    -0.9

    0.2

    0.1

    0.2

    0.0

    (In percent change, period average)

    Inflation

      Headline CPI

    -0.2

    2.5

    3.2

    2.8

    2.4

    2.0

      GDP deflator  

    -0.2

    0.4

    4.1

    3.0

    2.3

    2.1

    (In percent of GDP)

    Government

        Revenue  

    36.3

    37.5

    36.8

    36.9

    36.8

    36.8

        Expenditure  

    42.5

    41.8

    39.1

    39.4

    39.4

    39.7

        Overall Balance  

    -6.2

    -4.3

    -2.3

    -2.5

    -2.6

    -2.9

        Primary balance

    -5.6

    -3.9

    -2.1

    -2.1

    -2.2

    -2.2

    Structural primary balance

    -4.9

    -3.8

    -2.2

    -2.1

    -2.3

    -2.2

        Public debt, gross

    253.7

    248.3

    240.0

        237.0

    232.7

    230.0

    (In percent change, end-of-period)

    Macro-financial

    Base money

    8.5

    -5.6

    6.4

    -1.0

    2.2

    2.2

    Broad money

    2.9

    2.3

    2.2

    1.1

    2.1

    2.1

    Credit to the private sector

    2.3

    3.6

    4.2

    3.1

    1.8

    1.6

    Non-financial corporate debt in percent of GDP

    157.1

    161.2

    156.7

    159.8

    160.2

    161.3

    (In percent)

    Interest rate   

      Overnight call rate, uncollateralized (end-of-period)

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    …

    …

    …

      10-year JGB yield (end-of-period)

    0.1

    0.4

    0.6

    …

    …

    …

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    (In billions of USD)

    Balance of payments    

    Current account balance   

    196.2

    89.9

    158.5

    179.4

    166.7

    162.2

            Percent of GDP   

    3.9

    2.1

    3.8

    4.5

    4.1

    3.8

        Trade balance

    16.4

    -115.8

    -48.2

    -31.5

    -26.2

    -24.1

            Percent of GDP   

    0.3

    -2.7

    -1.1

    -0.8

    -0.6

    -0.6

          Exports of goods, f.o.b.  

    749.2

    752.5

    713.7

    691.6

    705.5

    720.9

          Imports of goods, f.o.b.  

    732.7

    868.3

    761.9

    723.1

    731.7

    745.0

    Energy imports

    127.8

    195.5

    152.9

    145.2

    135.9

    122.5

    (In percent of GDP)

    FDI, net

    3.5

    3.0

    4.1

    4.8

    4.2

    4.1

    Portfolio Investment

    -3.9

    -3.3

    4.7

    5.5

    0.9

    0.9

    (In billions of USD)

    Change in reserves   

    62.8

    -47.4

    29.8

    -74.7

    11.5

    11.5

    Total reserves minus gold (in billions of US$)             

    1356.2

    1178.3

    1238.5

    …

    …

    …

    (In units, period average)

    Exchange rates                

      Yen/dollar rate    

    109.8

    131.5

    140.5

    …

    …

    …

      Yen/euro rate    

    129.9

    138.6

    152.0

    …

    …

    …

      Real effective exchange rate (ULC-based, 2010=100)       

    73.5

    61.8

    56.1

    …

    …

    …

      Real effective exchange rate (CPI-based, 2010=100)

    70.7

    61.0

    58.1

    …

    …

    …

     

    (In percent)

    Demographic Indicators

    Population Growth

    -0.3

    -0.3

    -0.5

    -0.5

    -0.5

    -0.5

    Old-age dependency

    48.7

    48.8

    48.9

    49.2

    49.7

    50.1

    Sources: Haver Analytics; OECD; Japanese authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
                       

    [1] An IMF mission, led by Nada Choueiri and including Kohei Asao, Yan Carrière-Swallow, Andrea Deghi, Shujaat Khan, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Haruki Seitani, Danila Smirnov and Ara Stepanyan, conducted meetings in Japan during January 23-February 6, 2025. The mission met with senior officials at the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, and other ministries and government agencies, along with representatives of labor unions, the business community, financial sector, and academics.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Randa Elnagar

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-Evening Report: WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The Western Australian state election will be held on March 8. A Newspoll, conducted January 29 to February 4 from a sample of 1,039, gave Labor a 56–44 lead, from primary votes of 42% Labor, 32% Liberals, 3% Nationals, 12% Greens, 4% One Nation and 7% for all Others.

    At the March 2021 WA election, Labor won 53 of the 59 lower house seats on a two-party vote of 69.7–30.3, a record high for either major party at any state or federal election. Labor won 59.9% of the primary vote.

    A 56–44 result in Labor’s favour would still be a thumping victory, but it would represent a 14% swing to the Liberals from 2021. Labor will lose many seats, but they are very likely to easily retain a lower house majority.

    Labor Premier Roger Cook had a net approval of +18, with 55% satisfied and 37% dissatisfied. Liberal leader Libby Mettam had a net approval of -2, with 41% dissatisfied and 39% satisfied. Cook led Mettam as better premier by 54–34.

    While this Newspoll is very good for state Labor, only 35% of WA voters said the Anthony Albanese federal Labor government deserved to be re-elected, while 50% said it was “time to give someone else a go”.

    Federal Essential poll: Coalition remains ahead on respondent preferences

    A national Essential poll, conducted January 29 to February 2 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 49–47 lead by respondent preferences including undecided (48–47 in mid-January). The Coalition has led by one or two points in the past four Essential polls.

    Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 4% undecided (down one). These primary votes imply a Labor lead by about 50.5–49.5 by 2022 election preference flows.

    The poll graph below includes the latest polls from Essential and Morgan, but not the DemosAU poll. In the last two weeks, the Morgan poll has trended to Labor, with Labor’s two-party share using 2022 flows increasing from 48% to 50.5%.

    On action to combat antisemitism, 9% thought the government was doing too much, 30% said it was doing enough and 43% believed it was not doing enough. On the importance of antisemitism, 40% said it was a major issue, 48% a minor issue and 12% not an issue. Issue salience will be greatly overstated by questions that ask about one issue; it’s best to ask about various issues.

    By 37–31, respondents supported tax discounts of $20,000 for small businesses to pay for meals and entertainment for staff and clients. The question did not mention that this idea was proposed by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

    By 77–16, voters thought there should be laws requiring equal salaries for men and women in the same position, but by 49–45 they said gender equality has come far enough already. On social and economic inequality, 57% (down two since May 2024) thought it is increasing, 29% (up three) staying about the same and 10% (up one) decreasing.

    Core inflation dropped in December quarter

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics released inflation data for the December quarter on January 29. Headline inflation was up 0.2% in December, unchanged from the September quarter, with annual inflation down from 2.8% to 2.4%. The peak annual inflation was 7.8% in December 2022.

    Core (trimmed mean) inflation increased 0.5% in December, down from 0.8% in September, for an annual rate of 3.2%, down from 3.6% in September. Annual core inflation peaked at 6.8% in December 2022.

    The ABC’s report said financial markets thought there was now a 90% chance of an interest rate cut when the Reserve Bank board meets on February 17–18. A rate cut would be good news for the government.

    Morgan and DemosAU polls are tied

    A national Morgan poll, conducted January 27 to February 2 from a sample of 1,694, had a 50–50 tie by headline respondent preferences, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous poll. This is the first time the Coalition has not led in a Morgan poll since late November.

    Primary votes were 38.5% Coalition (down two), 30% Labor (up 0.5), 11.5% Greens (steady), 5.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 10.5% independents (up 1.5) and 4% others (up 0.5). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 50.5–49.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor.

    The previous Morgan poll, conducted January 20–26 from a sample of 1,567, gave the Coalition a 52–48 lead by respondent preferences, unchanged from the January 13–19 poll.

    Primary votes were 40.5% Coalition (down 1.5), 29.5% Labor (up one), 11.5% Greens (down 1.5), 6% One Nation (up two), 9% independents (up 0.5) and 3.5% others (down 0.5). By 2022 election flows, the Coalition led by 51–49, a one-point gain for Labor.

    A DemosAU national poll, conducted January 28 to February 1 from a sample of 1,238, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged since November. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all Others (down one).

    DemosAU is using 2022 election flows for its polls. The primary votes would be expected to give Labor a 51–49 lead, so rounding probably contributed to the tie.

    Freshwater breakdowns of young men and young women

    The Financial Review had breakdowns of voting intentions and other questions from the last three national Freshwater polls on January 28. These polls were conducted from November to January from an overall sample of 3,160. This analysis focused on differences between men and women aged 18–34.

    Among young women, Labor and the Greens each had 32% of the primary vote, while the Coalition was at just 25%. Among young men, Labor had 36%, the Coalition 32% and the Greens 20%. I estimate young women would vote Labor by about 65–35 and young men by 59–41 after preferences.

    While there is a difference between young men and women, Labor would easily win the overall youth vote in this poll. Labor’s problems in the overall polls are due to older voters skewing to the Coalition.

    Young women preferred Albanese as PM to Dutton by 58–27, while young men preferred Albanese by 55–37. With young women, Albanese was at net -11 approval and Dutton at net -22. With young men, Albanese was at net +6 approval and Dutton at net -6. Young men were much more positive than young women about the direction of the country and the economy.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves – https://theconversation.com/wa-labor-has-thumping-newspoll-lead-a-month-before-election-federal-labor-improves-248437

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: An ‘earthquake swarm’ is shaking Santorini. It could persist for months

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

    Greece’s government has just declared a state of emergency on the island of Santorini, as earthquakes shake the island multiple times a day and sometimes only minutes apart.

    The “earthquake swarm” is also affecting other nearby islands in the Aegean Sea. It began gradually with numerous very minor (less than magnitude 3) and mostly imperceptible earthquakes in late January. However, at the start of February, the seismic activity intensified as the quakes became larger and more frequent.

    So far, several thousand quakes have been recorded in the last two weeks. As many as 30 a day have been above magnitude 4.0 – most of them at less than 10km depth, which is large and shallow enough to be felt by people living on local islands.

    These larger earthquakes have resulted in rock falls along the islands’ coastal cliffs, as well as minor damage to vulnerable buildings. The largest earthquake so far was magnitude 5.1 on February 6, which was also felt in the capital city, Athens, as well as in Crete and in parts of Turkey more than 240km away.

    Usually a popular tourist destination, Santorini is now virtually empty. Over the past week, some 11,000 holidaymakers and locals have left the island, with many fearing the seismic activity may presage a volcanic eruption.

    So how exactly does an “earthquake swarm” happen? And what might happen in the coming days and weeks?

    No stranger to earthquakes

    This area of the world is no stranger to earthquakes. Greece is one of the most seismically active regions in Europe.

    The current seismic activity is located near Anydros, an uninhabited islet about 30km northeast of Santorini. This region lies within the volcanic arc of the “Hellenic subduction zone”, where the African tectonic plate is slowly sliding beneath the Eurasian plate (and specifically the Aegean microplate). The region hosts volcanoes as well as numerous weak zones in the crust – what earth scientists often call “faults”.

    Santorini itself is a mostly submerged caldera – a crater formed as a result of volcanic activity over the past 180,000 years, with its last eruption in the 1950s. Earthquakes can be connected to volcanic activity – specifically, the movement of magma beneath the surface.

    However, this earthquake sequence is not located beneath Santorini. And local scientists monitoring Santorini have reported no change to indicate the current seismic activity is a forerunner of another Santorini eruption. Instead, the earthquakes appear to align with faults lying between Santorini and the neighbouring island Amorgos.

    Nearby faults are known to have produced earthquakes before. For example, in 1956, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake here also produced a damaging tsunami and was soon followed by a magnitude 7.2 aftershock. More than 53 people died as a result of this earthquake and the aftershock and tsunami. Many more were injured.

    Earthquakes, shown as coloured circles, of the January-February 2025 Anydros swarm, near Santorini, Greece (Source: seismo.auth.gr) and known active faults, depicted as black lines (Source: https://zenodo.org/records/13168947).
    Dee Ninis & Konstantinos Michailos

    No single stand-out event

    Tectonic earthquakes occur when accumulating stress in Earth’s crust is suddenly released, causing a rupture along a fault and releasing energy in the form of seismic waves.

    Typically, moderate to major earthquakes (known as mainshocks) are followed by smaller quakes (known as aftershocks) that gradually diminish in magnitude and frequency over time. This is what seismologists call the mainshock–aftershock sequence.

    Some sequences behave differently and do not exhibit a single stand-out event. Instead, they involve multiple earthquakes of a similar size that take place over days, weeks, or even months. These types of sequences are what seismologists call “earthquake swarms”.

    The 1956 earthquake was a mainshock–aftershock sequence, with aftershocks lasting at least eight months after the mainshock. However, the current ongoing seismic activity near Santorini, at least as of February 7, features thousands of earthquakes, many with magnitudes ranging between 4.0 and 5.0.

    This suggests it is most likely an earthquake swarm.

    Earthquake swarms are often associated with fluid movement in the earth’s crust and the resulting seismic activity is usually less dramatic than the sudden movement of a strong mainshock.

    Seismologists are interested in distinguishing between mainshock–aftershock sequences and earthquake swarms as it can help them better understand the processes that drive these phenomena.

    A larger quake is still possible

    We cannot predict exactly what will come from the earthquake activity near Santorini. Global observations of earthquakes tell us that only a small fraction (about 5%) of earthquakes are foreshocks to larger earthquakes.

    That said, there could still be a possibility that a larger and potentially damaging earthquake could occur there soon.

    Although swarms typically involve earthquakes of lower magnitudes, they can last for days to weeks, or persist for months. They can even slow down, and then intensify again, unsettling locals with intermittent ground shaking.

    Dee Ninis works at the Seismology Research Centre, is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society, and a Committee Member for the Geological Society of Australia – Victoria Division.

    Konstantinos Michailos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. An ‘earthquake swarm’ is shaking Santorini. It could persist for months – https://theconversation.com/an-earthquake-swarm-is-shaking-santorini-it-could-persist-for-months-249278

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI China: Delivery of Liqing-2 rocket engine completed

    Source: China State Council Information Office 2

    Delivery of China’s liquid oxygen kerosene engine, named Liqing-2, has been completed, its developer CAS Space said on Thursday.
    The delivered piece of equipment is a 110-tonne pin engine, according to the company. Pin injection was applied in both the gas generator and thrust chamber of Liqing-2, the first stage engine of the company’s Lijian series rockets.
    The engine thrust ratio ranges from 50 to 100 percent, CAS Space revealed, while adding that the ground thrust can reach 110 tonnes.
    The Liqing-2 engine development project was approved in the second quarter of 2023 — and production started in the first quarter of 2024.
    At the beginning of 2025, the engine completed the whole machine liquid flow test, assembly and delivery review.
    As the main rockets used in China’s commercial space industry, the Lijian-1 series has now launched a total of 57 satellites in the course of five flight missions.
    CAS Space is a commercial spaceflight company established by the Institute of Mechanics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Japan: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    February 7, 2025

    A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

    The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

    Washington, DC – February 7, 2025[1]:

    After three decades of near-zero inflation, there are signs that Japan’s economy can sustainably converge to a new equilibrium. Inflation has surpassed the Bank of Japan’s 2-percent target for over two years and a tight labor market is delivering the strongest wage growth since the 1990s. But Japan continues to face challenges from its aging population and high public debt. Policy priorities are to re-anchor inflation expectations, rebuild fiscal buffers, and advance labor market reforms to support potential growth.

    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS

    The economy contracted in the first half of 2024 due to temporary supply disruptions but gained momentum in the rest of the year. Domestic demand, private consumption in particular, has strengthened, while net external demand has been sluggish. Both headline and core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) remain above the BoJ’s 2-percent headline inflation target. Goods inflation has been boosted by energy and food prices, while services price growth is relatively weaker and below 2 percent. Inflation expectations are becoming increasingly aligned with the inflation target, though some measures remain below that target. The yen-dollar exchange rate has experienced sizable swings, largely driven by shifts in interest rate differentials (which reflect broader macroeconomic developments), but also amplified by the build-up and subsequent unwinding of yen carry-trade positions. The pass-through to inflation is estimated to have been relatively mild so far. Wages are growing at their highest rate since the 1990s amid labor shortages and strong inflation, but they have remained lackluster in real terms.

    Growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, with private consumption strengthening further, as above-inflation wage growth will boost households’ disposable income. Private investment is also expected to remain strong, supported by high corporate profits and accommodative financial conditions. The output gap is estimated to be closed, and growth is expected to converge to its potential of 0.5 percent in the medium term. Headline and core inflation are expected to converge to the BoJ’s 2-percent headline inflation target in late 2025, helped by a moderation in commodity prices for oil and food. The current account surplus is expected to moderate in 2025 as the income balance narrows, with the trade balance remaining in deficit. The external position is assessed as broadly in line with the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.

    Risks to growth are tilted to the downside. On the external side, these include a slowdown in the global economy, deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and increasing trade restrictions, and more volatile food and energy prices. On the domestic side, the main downside risk is weak consumption if real wages do not pick up. Another domestic risk to the outlook is a possible decline in confidence in fiscal sustainability that leads to a tightening of financial conditions in the context of high public debt and gross financing needs. If downside risks materialize, it could result in Japan reverting to an effective-lower-bound constrained environment given the still-low level of the policy rate. 

    Risks to inflation are broadly balanced. On the downside, inflation expectations may stall below the headline inflation target following Japan’s prolonged experience with low inflation. Upside risks stem from rising food and energy prices, and from stronger-than-expected wages in the upcoming spring wage negotiations. Higher barriers to trade and cost pressures in major trading partners could spill over to Japan but the impact on domestic prices would be ambiguous given lower economic activity.

    ECONOMIC POLICIES

    Fiscal Policy

    The estimated fiscal deficit in 2024 is smaller than expected at the time of the 2024 Article IV. Tax revenues have been boosted by high corporate profits, and expenditures to support the economic recovery (such as transfers to households and SMEs) have been partly phased out. The fiscal deficit is projected to increase slightly in 2025, with additional spending planned for defense, children-related measures, and industrial policies (IP). There is a significant risk that the deficit will widen further, given the political demands on the minority government. This should be avoided as fiscal space remains limited: any expansionary measure should be offset by higher revenues or expenditure savings elsewhere in the budget.

    Public debt, as a share of GDP, is expected to decline in the near term, as nominal GDP growth is projected to exceed the effective interest rate on public debt. Public debt will remain high, however, and is estimated to start rising by 2030, driven by a higher interest bill and expenditure pressures related to spending on health and long-term care for an aging population. A clear consolidation plan is needed even in the near term to fully offset these pressures, ensure debt sustainability, and increase fiscal space needed to respond to shocks (including from natural disasters). This will require elaborating concrete and credible expenditure and revenue measures in the context of a robust medium-term fiscal framework:

    • The composition of public spending should be more growth-friendly, including by eliminating poorly targeted subsidies, notably energy subsidies, while preserving expenditure on high-quality public investment. Enhancing the targeting and efficiency of social security spending is critical to containing rising costs while preserving quality.
    • On the revenue side, options include strengthening financial income taxation for high-income earners, lowering exemptions and broadening the taxable valuation base under the property tax, streamlining income tax deductions, and unifying and eventually increasing the consumption tax rate. The PIT reform to the income deduction limit that is currently under consideration would need to be financed by additional revenues or savings elsewhere in the budget.
    • The repeated use, and incomplete execution of supplementary budgets undermines efficient resource allocation, budget transparency, and fiscal discipline. The use of supplementary budgets should be limited to responding to large, unexpected shocks that overwhelm automatic stabilizers, which would also avoid providing unwarranted stimulus in normal times. All medium-term spending commitments—including on IP and green transformation—should be incorporated into the regular budget process.

    As interest rates rise, the cost of servicing the large public debt is expected to double by 2030, putting a premium on a robust debt management strategy. In the face of rising gross financing needs and a shrinking BoJ balance sheet, government bond issuance will need to rely on additional demand from foreign investors and domestic institutions.

    Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

    The current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate and will ensure inflation expectations rise sustainably to the 2-percent inflation target. Accommodation should continue to be withdrawn gradually if the baseline forecast bears out, under which we expect the policy rate would reach a neutral level by end-2027. High domestic and external uncertainty underscore the need for the BoJ to maintain its data-dependent and flexible approach and clear communications to anchor market expectations.

    The BOJ’s ongoing reduction in the size of its balance sheet has been clearly communicated, is appropriately modest in pace, and is proceeding smoothly. The BoJ should stand ready to modify the pace of its purchases should disorderly bond market conditions arise or if financial conditions become inconsistent with the desired monetary policy stance.

    Japan’s large stock of outstanding government debt and sizable net international investment position provide an important transmission channel for monetary policy to spill over into asset prices abroad. Clear communication and gradualism can limit adverse asset price reactions and outward spillovers.

    The authorities’ continued commitment to a flexible exchange rate regime is welcome. Exchange rate flexibility should continue to help absorb external shocks and support monetary policy’s focus on price stability. At the same time, it will also help maintain an external position in line with fundamentals.

    Financial Stability

    Japan’s financial system remains broadly resilient, supported by strong capital and liquidity buffers. Banks’ revenues have generally increased as credit costs remain low, the rise in interest rates has been gradual, and the yen has depreciated. Major banks continue to manage interest rate risks proactively through portfolio rebalancing and diversifying their funding sources. Financial intermediation remains stable supported by continued demand for loans from both corporate and household sectors. The insurance sector is well-capitalized and profitable, despite challenges from market volatility and demographic shifts.

    While the financial system remains generally resilient, systemic risk has risen slightly since the 2024 Article IV consultation, reflecting a combination of rising macroeconomic uncertainty, risk of faster than expected interest rates increases or unrealized losses, and rising bankruptcies among SMEs. Rising global macroeconomic uncertainty could impact Japanese banks’ investments. While gradually rising interest rates have helped bank profitability, faster-than-expected increases in interest rates or sudden changes in global financial conditions could amplify financial market volatility and interact with three persisting vulnerabilities identified in the 2024 FSAP: large securities held under mark-to-market accounting, significant foreign currency exposures—particularly through US dollar funding instruments—and signs of overheating in some areas of real estate. A faster-than-expected tightening of financial conditions could also disrupt the JGB market, amplifying interest rate risks for banks with larger exposures. Less-capitalized domestic banks are more vulnerable to rate hikes, facing heightened risks from unrealized losses and higher funding costs. Corporate defaults among smaller SMEs have been increasing, albeit from a low base, and could pose risks for regional banks with high SME loan exposure. 

    Strengthening systemic risk monitoring and the macroprudential policy framework is needed to better mitigate risks in the financial system. Ongoing efforts to expand data collection, enhance analytical capacity, and improve coordination between the FSA and BOJ are welcome. To further enhance systemic risk analysis, closing remaining data gaps and advancing analytical tools for a more comprehensive assessment of systemic vulnerabilities, including those related to foreign currency exposure, remain key priorities. Assigning a formal mandate to the Council for Cooperation on Financial Stability would reinforce the institutional framework, while expanding the macroprudential policy toolkit with targeted borrower-based measures would help mitigate vulnerabilities in the real estate sector.

    Further strengthening financial sector oversight is essential to bolster stability and resilience against emerging risks and vulnerabilities. While progress has been made in expanding staffing resources in certain areas, additional allocations are needed to reinforce financial supervision. The authorities should continue to enhance risk-based supervision to respond flexibly to an evolving banking system. Strengthening the Early Warning System with more forward-looking indicators, especially for credit and liquidity risks, and establishing minimum liquidity requirements for domestic banks would enhance stability. Supervisors should also have the authority to adjust bank capital ratios above minimum requirements based on individual risk profiles and financial conditions.

    The authorities should remain prepared to address market strains as they arise. The liquidity and functioning of the JGB market have improved since April but experienced temporary deterioration in early August amid a spike in market volatility. Rising foreign market volatility could impact domestic liquidity conditions, potentially triggering spillover effects. To mitigate these risks the central bank should closely monitor liquidity conditions and funding rates in money markets, while paying particular attention to the uneven distribution of liquidity among banks as well as the growth in repo transactions driven by demand from financial dealers and foreign investors. The scope of institutions eligible to receive emergency liquidity assistance could be expanded to nonbank financial institutions, prioritizing central counterparties. Recovery and Resolution Planning should be gradually expanded to all banks that could be systemic at failure, requiring more banks to maintain a minimum amount of loss-absorbing capacity tailored to their resolvability needs.

    Structural Policies

    Japan’s total factor productivity growth has been slowing for a decade and has fallen further behind the United States. A steady decline in allocative efficiency since the early 2000s has been a drag on productivity, and likely reflects an increase in market frictions. In addition, Japan’s ultra-low interest rates may have allowed low-productivity firms to survive longer than they otherwise would have, delaying necessary economic restructuring. Reforms aimed at improving labor mobility across firms would help improve Japan’s allocative efficiency and boost productivity.

    Japan’s labor market is expected to witness a significant transformation driven by population aging and advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Japan is aging rapidly—a trend that is expected to continue over coming decades—and has been at the forefront in labor-saving automation to alleviate labor shortages. Policies can play a crucial role in mitigating the impact of aging on labor supply and facilitating mobility needed to benefit from AI adoption:

    • Thanks to government efforts, Japan’s seniors already have a relatively high labor force participation rate compared to other OECD countries. But policy frictions such as an income threshold that triggers a loss of pension benefits may be inducing seniors to work fewer hours than they otherwise would.
    • Japan has made significant progress in increasing female labor force participation during the last decade. Further supporting women’s ability to fully participate in the labor force will require continuing to expand childcare resources and facilitate fathers’ contribution to home/childcare, and further encouraging the use of flexible working arrangements.
    • Training programs are crucial to enhance the complementarity of AI with the labor force and improve the productivity of senior workers.
    • Improving mobility and reducing barriers to job switching are essential to address labor shortages due to aging and the potential job displacement impact of AI. Subsidized training programs that are targeted to in-demand occupations could help reskill and upskill the labor force and facilitate occupational mobility.

    While AI may help to address some of Japan’s labor shortages, and since upskilling/reskilling the labor force takes time, attracting foreign workers could help alleviate labor shortages. Government programs have led to a tripling of the number of foreign workers in Japan during the past decade. However, foreigners continue to play a much smaller role in the Japanese labor force than they do in other OECD economies.

    Similar to other G20 economies, Japan has increased its adoption of industrial policies. Japan’s industrial policies aim to advance several objectives, including economic security, resilience, inclusive growth, and green and digital transformation (the latter including support for the semiconductor industry). Under this umbrella, multi-year envelopes of 20 trillion and 10 trillion yen have been identified for green transformation and the semiconductor/AI industries, respectively. Given Japan’s limited fiscal space and the unclear growth impact of past IP, industrial policy schemes should be subjected to a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. Going forward, IP should be narrowly targeted to specific objectives when externalities or market failures exist, to minimize distortions. It should avoid favoring domestic products over imports or creating incentives that lead to a fragmentation of the global system for trade and investment, in line with Japan’s commitment to multilateral economic cooperation.

    Japan remains committed to green transformation, and further progress on policies would enable reaching its targets. Notable ongoing efforts—such as the issuance of climate transition bonds to finance government green investment, and the implementation of carbon credits trading—are in line with international practices and previous staff advice. Nevertheless, without further policy changes, Japan is likely to fall short of its targets. To help meet its green commitments while boosting growth, a combination of policies is needed. Options include the removal of energy subsidies, the expansion of carbon pricing, feebates and tradable performance standards. Carbon pricing would need to be accompanied by targeted cash transfers to protect the vulnerable from adverse distributional effects.

    The IMF team would like to thank the authorities and other interlocutors in Japan for the frank and open discussions.

    Table 1. Japan: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021-26

    Nominal GDP: US$ 4,213 billion (2023)

    GDP per capita: US$ 33,849 (2023)

    Population: 124 million (2023)

    Quota: SDR 30.8 billion (2023)

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    Est.

    Proj.

    (In percent change)

    Growth

      Real GDP

    2.7

    0.9

    1.5

    -0.2

    1.1

    0.8

      Domestic demand

    1.7

    1.5

    0.4

    0.2

    1.2

    0.8

        Private consumption  

    0.7

    2.1

    0.8

    -0.3

    0.9

    0.6

        Gross Private Fixed Investment

    1.3

    1.6

    1.5

    0.6

    1.1

    0.8

        Business investment  

    1.7

    2.6

    1.5

    1.3

    1.2

    0.9

        Residential investment  

    -0.3

    -2.7

    1.5

    -2.4

    0.8

    0.4

        Government consumption   

    3.4

    1.4

    -0.3

    1.0

    1.3

    1.2

        Public investment   

    -2.6

    -8.3

    1.5

    -1.2

    0.3

    0.0

        Stockbuilding

    0.5

    0.2

    -0.3

    0.1

    0.1

    0.0

      Net exports

    1.0

    -0.5

    1.0

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.1

        Exports of goods and services

    11.9

    5.5

    3.0

    0.7

    2.9

    2.0

        Imports of goods and services

    5.2

    8.3

    -1.5

    2.0

    2.9

    1.8

    Output Gap

    -1.6

    -0.9

    0.2

    0.1

    0.2

    0.0

    (In percent change, period average)

    Inflation

      Headline CPI

    -0.2

    2.5

    3.2

    2.8

    2.4

    2.0

      GDP deflator  

    -0.2

    0.4

    4.1

    3.0

    2.3

    2.1

    (In percent of GDP)

    Government

        Revenue  

    36.3

    37.5

    36.8

    36.9

    36.8

    36.8

        Expenditure  

    42.5

    41.8

    39.1

    39.4

    39.4

    39.7

        Overall Balance  

    -6.2

    -4.3

    -2.3

    -2.5

    -2.6

    -2.9

        Primary balance

    -5.6

    -3.9

    -2.1

    -2.1

    -2.2

    -2.2

    Structural primary balance

    -4.9

    -3.8

    -2.2

    -2.1

    -2.3

    -2.2

        Public debt, gross

    253.7

    248.3

    240.0

        237.0

    232.7

    230.0

    (In percent change, end-of-period)

    Macro-financial

    Base money

    8.5

    -5.6

    6.4

    -1.0

    2.2

    2.2

    Broad money

    2.9

    2.3

    2.2

    1.1

    2.1

    2.1

    Credit to the private sector

    2.3

    3.6

    4.2

    3.1

    1.8

    1.6

    Non-financial corporate debt in percent of GDP

    157.1

    161.2

    156.7

    159.8

    160.2

    161.3

    (In percent)

    Interest rate   

      Overnight call rate, uncollateralized (end-of-period)

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    …

    …

    …

      10-year JGB yield (end-of-period)

    0.1

    0.4

    0.6

    …

    …

    …

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    (In billions of USD)

    Balance of payments    

    Current account balance   

    196.2

    89.9

    158.5

    179.4

    166.7

    162.2

            Percent of GDP   

    3.9

    2.1

    3.8

    4.5

    4.1

    3.8

        Trade balance

    16.4

    -115.8

    -48.2

    -31.5

    -26.2

    -24.1

            Percent of GDP   

    0.3

    -2.7

    -1.1

    -0.8

    -0.6

    -0.6

          Exports of goods, f.o.b.  

    749.2

    752.5

    713.7

    691.6

    705.5

    720.9

          Imports of goods, f.o.b.  

    732.7

    868.3

    761.9

    723.1

    731.7

    745.0

    Energy imports

    127.8

    195.5

    152.9

    145.2

    135.9

    122.5

    (In percent of GDP)

    FDI, net

    3.5

    3.0

    4.1

    4.8

    4.2

    4.1

    Portfolio Investment

    -3.9

    -3.3

    4.7

    5.5

    0.9

    0.9

    (In billions of USD)

    Change in reserves   

    62.8

    -47.4

    29.8

    -74.7

    11.5

    11.5

    Total reserves minus gold (in billions of US$)             

    1356.2

    1178.3

    1238.5

    …

    …

    …

    (In units, period average)

    Exchange rates                

      Yen/dollar rate    

    109.8

    131.5

    140.5

    …

    …

    …

      Yen/euro rate    

    129.9

    138.6

    152.0

    …

    …

    …

      Real effective exchange rate (ULC-based, 2010=100)       

    73.5

    61.8

    56.1

    …

    …

    …

      Real effective exchange rate (CPI-based, 2010=100)

    70.7

    61.0

    58.1

    …

    …

    …

     

    (In percent)

    Demographic Indicators

    Population Growth

    -0.3

    -0.3

    -0.5

    -0.5

    -0.5

    -0.5

    Old-age dependency

    48.7

    48.8

    48.9

    49.2

    49.7

    50.1

    Sources: Haver Analytics; OECD; Japanese authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
                       

    [1] An IMF mission, led by Nada Choueiri and including Kohei Asao, Yan Carrière-Swallow, Andrea Deghi, Shujaat Khan, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Haruki Seitani, Danila Smirnov and Ara Stepanyan, conducted meetings in Japan during January 23-February 6, 2025. The mission met with senior officials at the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, and other ministries and government agencies, along with representatives of labor unions, the business community, financial sector, and academics.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Randa Elnagar

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/02/07/mcs-020725-japan-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: An ‘earthquake swarm’ is shaking Santorini. It could persist for months

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University

    Greece’s government has just declared a state of emergency on the island of Santorini, as earthquakes shake the island multiple times a day and sometimes only minutes apart.

    The “earthquake swarm” is also affecting other nearby islands in the Aegean Sea. It began gradually with numerous very minor (less than magnitude 3) and mostly imperceptible earthquakes in late January. However, at the start of February, the seismic activity intensified as the quakes became larger and more frequent.

    So far, several thousand quakes have been recorded in the last two weeks. As many as 30 a day have been above magnitude 4.0 – most of them at less than 10km depth, which is large and shallow enough to be felt by people living on local islands.

    These larger earthquakes have resulted in rock falls along the islands’ coastal cliffs, as well as minor damage to vulnerable buildings. The largest earthquake so far was magnitude 5.1 on February 6, which was also felt in the capital city, Athens, as well as in Crete and in parts of Turkey more than 240km away.

    Usually a popular tourist destination, Santorini is now virtually empty. Over the past week, some 11,000 holidaymakers and locals have left the island, with many fearing the seismic activity may presage a volcanic eruption.

    So how exactly does an “earthquake swarm” happen? And what might happen in the coming days and weeks?

    No stranger to earthquakes

    This area of the world is no stranger to earthquakes. Greece is one of the most seismically active regions in Europe.

    The current seismic activity is located near Anydros, an uninhabited islet about 30km northeast of Santorini. This region lies within the volcanic arc of the “Hellenic subduction zone”, where the African tectonic plate is slowly sliding beneath the Eurasian plate (and specifically the Aegean microplate). The region hosts volcanoes as well as numerous weak zones in the crust – what earth scientists often call “faults”.

    Santorini itself is a mostly submerged caldera – a crater formed as a result of volcanic activity over the past 180,000 years, with its last eruption in the 1950s. Earthquakes can be connected to volcanic activity – specifically, the movement of magma beneath the surface.

    However, this earthquake sequence is not located beneath Santorini. And local scientists monitoring Santorini have reported no change to indicate the current seismic activity is a forerunner of another Santorini eruption. Instead, the earthquakes appear to align with faults lying between Santorini and the neighbouring island Amorgos.

    Nearby faults are known to have produced earthquakes before. For example, in 1956, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake here also produced a damaging tsunami and was soon followed by a magnitude 7.2 aftershock. More than 53 people died as a result of this earthquake and the aftershock and tsunami. Many more were injured.

    Earthquakes, shown as coloured circles, of the January-February 2025 Anydros swarm, near Santorini, Greece (Source: seismo.auth.gr) and known active faults, depicted as black lines (Source: https://zenodo.org/records/13168947).
    Dee Ninis & Konstantinos Michailos

    No single stand-out event

    Tectonic earthquakes occur when accumulating stress in Earth’s crust is suddenly released, causing a rupture along a fault and releasing energy in the form of seismic waves.

    Typically, moderate to major earthquakes (known as mainshocks) are followed by smaller quakes (known as aftershocks) that gradually diminish in magnitude and frequency over time. This is what seismologists call the mainshock–aftershock sequence.

    Some sequences behave differently and do not exhibit a single stand-out event. Instead, they involve multiple earthquakes of a similar size that take place over days, weeks, or even months. These types of sequences are what seismologists call “earthquake swarms”.

    The 1956 earthquake was a mainshock–aftershock sequence, with aftershocks lasting at least eight months after the mainshock. However, the current ongoing seismic activity near Santorini, at least as of February 7, features thousands of earthquakes, many with magnitudes ranging between 4.0 and 5.0.

    This suggests it is most likely an earthquake swarm.

    Earthquake swarms are often associated with fluid movement in the earth’s crust and the resulting seismic activity is usually less dramatic than the sudden movement of a strong mainshock.

    Seismologists are interested in distinguishing between mainshock–aftershock sequences and earthquake swarms as it can help them better understand the processes that drive these phenomena.

    A larger quake is still possible

    We cannot predict exactly what will come from the earthquake activity near Santorini. Global observations of earthquakes tell us that only a small fraction (about 5%) of earthquakes are foreshocks to larger earthquakes.

    That said, there could still be a possibility that a larger and potentially damaging earthquake could occur there soon.

    Although swarms typically involve earthquakes of lower magnitudes, they can last for days to weeks, or persist for months. They can even slow down, and then intensify again, unsettling locals with intermittent ground shaking.

    Dee Ninis works at the Seismology Research Centre, is Vice President of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society, and a Committee Member for the Geological Society of Australia – Victoria Division.

    Konstantinos Michailos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. An ‘earthquake swarm’ is shaking Santorini. It could persist for months – https://theconversation.com/an-earthquake-swarm-is-shaking-santorini-it-could-persist-for-months-249278

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Kennedy, Moran champion bill to protect veterans’ Second Amendment rights

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator John Kennedy (Louisiana)

    WASHINGTON – Sens. John Kennedy (R-La.) and Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, today led 14 colleagues in introducing the Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act. The bill would prevent veterans from losing their Second Amendment right to purchase or own firearms when they receive help managing their Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) benefits.

    “Our veterans should not receive less due process rights than other Americans just because they served our country and asked the federal government for a helping hand. Under the VA’s interpretation of the law, however, unelected bureaucrats punish Louisiana and America’s veterans by forcing them to choose between their Second Amendment rights and getting the help they need as they manage their financial affairs. I’m proud to introduce the Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act to stand up for veterans’ constitutional rights by ending this unfair practice,” said Kennedy.

    “Veterans should never be forced to choose between receiving assistance from VA to manage their benefits and their fundamental Second Amendment rights. Our nation should be encouraging veterans to utilize VA services, not discouraging them by denying them due process. The Veterans Second Amendment Protection Act makes certain that the rights of those who have served are protected, and that veterans are not penalized for receiving support that they have earned and deserve. I thank Sen. Kennedy for his partnership in this effort,” said Moran. 

    Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), Chairman of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, introduced the bill in the House of Representatives.

    “It should go without saying that veterans should not be treated like second-class citizens simply because they need help managing their books—but under current law they are. Without a permanent fix in place, VA bureaucrats can continue to strip veterans with fiduciaries of their Second Amendment right with no court ruling in place that they are a danger to themselves or others. It’s as simple as that. I have heard from too many veterans that VA’s current NICS reporting measures prevent them from seeking mental health care at VA—we must change that. I want to thank Chairman Moran, Senator Kennedy, and my House colleagues for working with me last Congress to pass a temporary solution, but veterans need a permanent fix. House and Senate Republicans will fulfill the American people’s mandate to get this bill to President Trump’s desk to protect veterans’ due process and constitutional rights for good,” said Bost. 

    Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), Mike Rounds (S.D.), Kevin Cramer (N.D.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) cosponsored the legislation.

    “I take the constitutional right to bear arms very seriously. Our bill would preserve due process for veterans and put a stop to unelected bureaucrats unjustifiably stripping away the Second Amendment rights of those who’ve served,” said Grassley.

    “Veterans must not be required to forfeit the Second Amendment without a careful, constitutional process. Attempting to deprive former servicemembers of firearms for protection or recreation simply because they require assistance managing the benefits they have earned is bureaucracy at its worst. Our legislation would correct this injustice and preserve these law-abiding patriots’ rights,” said Boozman.

    “The veterans who served our country shouldn’t lose their 2nd Amendment rights just because they need financial help,” said Cassidy.

    “Veterans who have served our country deserve the same Second Amendment rights and protections as every other American. This commonsense legislation ensures that veterans aren’t punished simply because they need assistance managing their benefits and guarantees they are not denied their constitutional rights without due process,” said Tillis. 

    “Our veterans have sacrificed so much to defend this great country, and it is critical their God-given right to protect themselves and their families doesn’t rest on judgement of unelected bureaucrats. It takes a lot of courage and humility for our brave veterans to admit that they need help managing their financial benefits. But it shouldn’t place their constitutional freedoms in jeopardy. This bill ends the ability of government workers to take away the Second Amendment freedoms of our veterans when they ask for help with their money unless a judge finds them to be a danger to himself or others. I stand with our veterans and will continue to fight to preserve the freedoms they fought for on the battlefield,” said Tuberville.

    “I’m proud to stand with our veterans to ensure equal protection of their rights with the Second Amendment Protection Act. Our veterans have fought to protect our nation and defend our rights, and they deserve to be treated fairly with the same due process under the law,” said Scott.

    Because of the VA’s interpretation of current law, the VA sends a beneficiary’s name to the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) whenever a fiduciary is appointed to help a beneficiary manage his or her VA benefit payments.

    Ultimately, VA employees decide whether veterans receive help from a fiduciary.

    The bill would prohibit the Secretary of Veterans Affairs from transmitting a veteran’s personal information to NICS unless a relevant judicial authority rules that the beneficiary is a danger to himself or others.

    Vietnam Veterans of America, National Association of County Veterans Service Officers, Veterans of Foreign Wars, The American Legion, Black Veterans Empowerment Council, Military Order of the Purple Heart, National Shooting Sports Foundation, National Rifle Association, Gun Owners of America, AMAC Action, Turning Point Action, Firearms Regulatory Accountability Coalition, National Disability Rights Network and the National Association for Gun Rights support the Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act.

    Background:

    • In the 116th Congress, Kennedy introduced the Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act. 
    • In the 118th Congress, Kennedy and Moran re-introduced the Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act with six co-sponsors. 
    • In Oct. 2023, the Senate passed Kennedy and Moran’s amendment to the Consolidated Appropriations Act based on the Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act. The same language passed into law as part of an appropriations package in March 2024.
    • The language included in the appropriations package only provided a temporary solution tied to appropriations. The Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act would make the fix permanent and prevent future VA administrations from undoing the work to restore veterans’ due process and Second Amendment rights. 

    The bill text is available here.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Hickenlooper, Colleagues Introduce Bill to Make Space Traffic Safer

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Colorado John Hickenlooper

    Legislation would improve space traffic coordination in low-Earth Orbit, reduce congestion

    WASHINGTON – Today, U.S. Senators John Hickenlooper, John Cornyn, Gary Peters, Marsha Blackburn, Eric Schmitt, Mark Kelly, Roger Wicker, and Ben Ray Luján introduced the Situational Awareness of Flying Elements in (SAFE) Orbit Act. The legislation would improve space traffic coordination (STC) in low-Earth orbit by directing the Office of Space Commerce (OSC), which operates within the U.S. Department of Commerce, to acquire and share unclassified information on space activities in low-Earth orbit.

    “The boom in commercial space activities has filled low-Earth orbit with more debris and satellites than ever,” said Hickenlooper. “A cutting-edge traffic coordination system will help preserve our leadership in space.”

    Our current government space situational awareness (SSA) services have not kept pace with the accuracy our space industry needs. The SAFE Orbit Act would fix that.

    Specifically, the legislation would:

    • Make basic-level SSA data, analytics, information, and services available for public use through an easily accessible, free web interface
    • Maintain a public catalog of SSA data and information using data from diverse sources
    • Facilitate the development and adoption of voluntary industry consensus standards to ensure data standardization among satellite owners and operators, commercial service providers, the academic community, and nonprofits
    • Foster collaboration with U.S Government and foreign government operators to encourage participation in data-sharing with respect to their assets in orbit
    • Prioritize purchasing data, analytics, information, and services from commercial SSA providers
    • Ensure any licensing agreements allow private U.S. firms to continue market growth and protect proprietary commercial systems and data

    The Commercial Spaceflight Federation has endorsed this legislation.

    “Commercial space objects in low-Earth orbit can help scientists make new discoveries and spur technological innovation, but this hinges on the ability to conduct safe and effective space traffic coordination,” said Cornyn. “The SAFE Orbit Act would prevent dangerous and costly accidental collisions in low-Earth orbit and improve access to data collection and analysis to help propel the United States into the next phase of space exploration.”

    “To continue as a global leader in commercial space activity, the United States must lead the way to protect astronauts in orbit and space-based assets,” said Peters. “This legislation would provide important data that can help inform space exploration decisions and promote safe expansion.”

    “The world is entering a new space race, and we must equip American innovators with every resource to win,” said Blackburn. “The SAFE Orbit Act would take an important step to centralize and improve space traffic coordination, ensuring there are no tragic collisions in space. As we enter this new frontier, we must be certain that we prioritize safety and coordination with our partners around the globe.”

    “As the commercial space industry continues to grow, we need to safely track and manage objects in orbit and prevent collisions,” said Kelly. “We’re providing the tools for critical space situational awareness that will safeguard public access to orbital data, empower scientists and innovators to advance this critical frontier, and strengthen American leadership in space.”

    “Future expansion in space requires better technology and data coordination. Currently, companies lack the awareness of other objects such as space junk, which could collide with valuable satellites,” said Wicker. “This new emerging business sector represents the new economic frontier, but we must make sure we are prepared to tap its potential.”

    “This legislation will help make essential improvements to how we track objects in Earth’s orbit, enhancing space safety through better tracking and coordination to reduce collision risks,” said Luján. “As the commercial space activity grows, in New Mexico and across the country, access to critical space data is necessary to ensure safety and security.”

    Full text of the bill is available HERE.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: New Zealand Sugar Company fined almost $150,000 for importing and selling sugar products contaminated with lead

    Source: Ministry for Primary Industries

    New Zealand Sugar Company, trading as Chelsea Sugar, has been fined $149,500 for manufacturing, distributing and selling sugar products contaminated with lead.

    In November and December 2021, the company recalled thousands of packs of sugar products because of potential low level lead contamination.

    Media release: New Zealand Food Safety to investigate sugar recalls

    Two other product recalls were needed when it was later discovered New Zealand Sugar Company provided incorrect information to supermarkets, resulting in more sugar products being released to consumers.

    “These recalls had a significant impact on consumer access to certain sugar products, such as brown sugar. It also affected a large number of other businesses which had to recall products made with the contaminated sugar,” says New Zealand Food Safety deputy director general Vincent Arbuckle.

    In the Auckland District Court, the company was sentenced on 2 charges it pleaded guilty to in May last year, including breaching its National Programme (NP) – designed to manage any food risk to consumers – along with negligently endangering, harming, creating, or increasing risk to consumers by distributing its product.

    A sentencing hearing was held in September last year and the court has released its reserved decision today.

    “New Zealand Sugar Company knew what its responsibilities were to consumers – ensuring the safety and suitability of its products and managing any potential risk to consumers.

    “It failed to properly detect the extent of lead contamination until after the imported sugar had been used in production.

    “Offending at this scale is rare, and the Court’s sentence today sends a strong message that it will not be tolerated,” says Vincent Arbuckle.

    In September 2021, the New Zealand Sugar Company imported sugar from Australia that became contaminated with lead during sea transport. From this sugar it manufactured and distributed 971 tonnes of contaminated sugar products to businesses in New Zealand.

    The sugar had been freighted to New Zealand from Australia aboard the cargo ship Rin Treasure – a vessel that had been used to ship metal sulphide concentrates (lead and zinc) on its previous voyage.

    Before choosing this ship, New Zealand Sugar Company was advised the vessel failed a survey report on 3 September, meaning it was not fit to load and transport bulk sugar. Prior to its departure, the vessel was cleaned, and a cleanliness report certified the vessel’s hold was in a fit state for the stowage and carriage of raw sugar.

    However, the cleaning was not effective, and the cargo of sugar became contaminated with lead during the journey from Queensland. This contamination may have been potentially exacerbated by a broken pipe aboard the vessel that spilled water into the sugar during the cargo unloading process by contractors.

    Samples of the sugar were collected between 15 and 24 September for testing but New Zealand Sugar Company followed its normal process of producing sugar products from the cargo for distribution and sale.

    “The test result on 7 October showed high readings of lead contamination, but rather than take immediate action and stop production and distribution, they instead sought more testing which confirmed the same result.

    “Some of this product was sold between October and early November. We were not informed of the lead contamination until 3 November, which is unacceptable.

    “New Zealand Sugar Company’s lack of definitive action resulted in a consumer level recall of sugar products on 4 November – around 6 weeks after the contaminated product arrived in New Zealand.

    “Although the short-term exposure to increased lead levels through these sugar products  would not have endangered people’s health – we cannot afford to take a chance on public health,” says Vincent Arbuckle.

    If you have concerns about a food product, you can contact New Zealand Food Safety on 0800 008 333 or use our online food complaint tool

    For further information and general enquiries, email info@mpi.govt.nz

    For media enquiries, contact the media team on 029 894 0328.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Warner Joins Colleagues In Demanding Secretary Bessent Meet With Senate Democrats To Bring Transparency And Clarity To “DOGE” Chaos At Treasury

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Commonwealth of Virginia Mark R Warner

    WASHINGTON – Today, Select Committee on Intelligence Vice Chair Mark Warner (D-VA) joined Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Appropriations Committee Vice Chair Patty Murray (D-WA), Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR), Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Ranking Member Gary Peters (D-MI), in sending the following letter to the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, after the Treasury Department’s inadequate responses and evasive answers to a request for information following the hostile takeover of the Treasury Department by Elon Musk and the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” (“DOGE”). Specifically, the Senators are concerned about “DOGE” having access to the management and disbursement of trillions of dollars and the highly sensitive information of millions of Americans.

    “The Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s payment system is absolutely vital to our economic and national security. Any infiltration or manipulation must be immediately addressed. Frankly, the information your Department has provided on the matter to date is woefully inadequate,” said the Senators. “We speak for not just the caucus, but for the millions of impacted Americans, when we say this is an urgent matter and your participation is necessary for the American people to have confidence that our government will continue to function effectively and that their privacy remains protected.”

    The full text of the letter can be seen here and below.

    Dear Secretary Bessent:

    Senate Democrats are deeply concerned with the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” (“DOGE”), Elon Musk, and his unnamed team’s seemingly hostile takeover of the Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s central payment systems. As you know, this is a highly sensitive government system that manages, processes, and disburses trillions of dollars, including Social Security and Medicare payments, tax refunds, and other highly sensitive information for millions of Americans. The seemingly illicit penetration of the system under the guise of an “operational efficiency assessment” demands your immediate attention, and Congress requires answers about the purpose and scope of “DOGE’s” activity. To that end, we request your attendance at a meeting with the Democratic Caucus as soon as possible.

    Although we know that you and your Department have been made aware of these concerns, we have found the Department’s written response to Finance Committee Ranking Member Wyden and Banking Committee Ranking Member Warren wholly insufficient, and even illusive, and evasive and, in many cases, the responses stand in direct conflict to Elon Musk’s public statements about the work of “DOGE.” As you know, the Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s payment system is absolutely vital to our economic and national security. Any infiltration or manipulation must be immediately addressed. Frankly, the information your Department has provided on the matter to date is woefully inadequate.

    We speak for not just the caucus, but for the millions of impacted Americans, when we say this is an urgent matter and your participation is necessary for the American people to have confidence that our government will continue to function effectively and that their privacy remains protected.

    We eagerly await your confirmation and are looking forward to your addressing the Senate Democratic Caucus.

    We request your response by tomorrow, Thursday, February 6, 2025.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Cassidy Highlights His Plans to Hold China Accountable, Protect Louisiana Ricers, Shrimpers to Trump USTR Nominee

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Louisiana Bill Cassidy

    [embedded content]

    WASHINGTON –U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA) today outlined his plan to hold China accountable through his Foreign Pollution Fee and addressed the need to protect Louisiana ricers and shrimpers from foreign competitors during U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) nominee Jamieson Greer’s confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate Finance Committee.
    “You have been concerned—expressed skepticism—about the need for binding dispute mechanisms at the WTO, but my rice producers and others have won decisions at the WTO on commitments by other countries on agricultural subsidies, and yet they’re not enforced. And so, are my agricultural people just out in the cold? … Help my rice producer here. How are we going to handle that?” asked Dr. Cassidy.
    “Senator, I think you’re exactly right, and that’s part of the reason why I show skepticism sometimes about the WTO,” replied Greer. “We have to have enforcement, and at the end of the day, what that means is USTR has to go to the country and enforce the law, and sometimes that means imposing tariffs on them.”
    “About 40 percent of the imported shrimp to the United States come from India. Now the EU, Japan, and the U.S. finds illegal antibiotics in their shipments. And there’s also allegations that they use forced labor at every step of the supply chain… Would you commit to putting a— slapping a tariff on the shrimp if we can show that it’s being imported under those circumstances?” asked Dr. Cassidy.
    “If we have an investigation and it shows their unfair trading practices, you can certainly impose a tariff or other measures if that trade practice isn’t remedied. I think it’s really important to work with you and the shrimpers because if they feel like they’re not getting the relief they need from trade remedies or other venues, then we need to explore whether it’s section 301, or other tools, to make sure that we’re detecting the unfairnesses and addressing it,” said Greer. 
    When discussing Cassidy’s Foreign Pollution Fee Act, Greer recognized the unlevel playfield that requires the use of tariffs to hold other countries accountable for unfair trade practices. 
    “[O]ne thing I am concerned about is that China is not using, not enforcing environmental regulations… [I]t lowers their cost of manufacturing by not enforcing those environmental regulations by 20 percent, and our industry moves there because they just lowered their manufacturing costs by 20 percent by dumping their air pollution on us. Now if this is classical economics, you would tax the externality, and I have proposed a fee on the carbon-intense product from countries which do not enforce internationally accepted norms on pollution control. Any thoughts upon that?” asked Dr. Cassidy. 
    “I think you’ve articulated the problem statement very well. I think there’s an unlevel playing field, and I think that other countries take advantage of total lack of environmental regulations,” said Greer. 
    Background 
    In December, Cassidy and U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) released a new discussion draft of their Foreign Pollution Fee Act to level the playing field with Chinese manufacturing and expand American production. In addition, the Steel Manufacturers Association, which represents 70 percent of the nation’s steel production, called on President-elect Trump and Congress to institute a foreign pollution fee.
    The Foreign Pollution Fee Act was a key topic at Cassidy’s Louisiana Energy Security Summit last fall. The summit featured ten panels that explored protecting U.S. interests from unfair trade practices, Louisiana’s low-emission manufacturing advantage, and the role of natural gas in strengthening U.S. geopolitical influence. Panelists included the CEOs of Entergy, First Solar, Buzzi UnicemUSA, Orsted, and Aluminum Technologies, former Trump administration officials, and leaders from Louisiana trade associations and major energy and Fortune 500 companies. 
    In 2023, the Louisiana Senate and House of Representatives unanimously adopted a resolution urging Congress to pursue an industrial manufacturing and trade policy to counter competition from China. 
    On Louisiana shrimp and rice, Cassidy introduced two bills last Congress to protect both industries against China and India’s dumping of cheap agricultural products into U.S. markets. The Prioritizing Offensive Agricultural Disputes and Enforcement Act and the India Shrimp Tariff Act will protect the Louisiana agricultural industry while ensuring that food that appears on U.S. store shelves meets U.S. health standards.
    Last year, Cassidy worked to secure $27,152,411.00 for Louisiana fisheries, shrimpers, and fishing communities affected by natural disasters between 2017 and 2022.
    In April 2024, Cassidy advocated for Louisiana shrimpers and rice producers at a U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing with USTR Ambassador Katherine Tai. He pressed her on progress USTR is making to prevent shrimp dumping from Asia. Cassidy also highlighted a whistleblower report on the safety of shrimp imported from India.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Cassidy, Britt, Warnock, Peters Reintroduce Retirement Fairness Legislation for Non-Profit Employees

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Louisiana Bill Cassidy

    WASHINGTON – U.S. Senators Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA), Katie Britt (R-AL), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and Gary Peters (D-MI) reintroduced the Retirement Fairness for Charities and Educational Institutions Actto enhance investment options for 403(b) retirement plans. 403(b) plans are a type of retirement savings plan, similar to a 401(k), offered to employees of non-profit organizations like public universities, hospitals, churches, and charities.
    “Non-profit employees should have the same access to investment strategies for their retirement plans as private sector employees,” said Dr. Cassidy. “Social Security is going insolvent. We need to give Americans every tool to help make their retirement more secure.”
    “The Retirement Fairness for Charities and Educational Institutions Act would level the playing field so more hardworking Americans can access retirement resources that best fit their needs. Our legislation would allow Americans in the non-profit sector to access the same investment options available to those in the private sector,” said Senator Britt. “This commonsense bipartisan bill would help Americans who work for non-profits, including many of our hospitals, achieve long-term financial stability.” 
    “America’s retirees deserve the peace of mind that comes with financial security when they transition into retirement. This is especially true for non-profit workers who dedicate their lives to serving their communities— they deserve access to the same retirement investment opportunities private sector employees have,” said Senator Warnock. “That’s why I’m proud to help lead this bipartisan legislation which provides equal opportunity for non-profit employees and helps ensure they can retire with dignity.”
    “Hardworking public service and non-profit employees who support our health care and human services, arts and culture, civic engagement, and more deserve access to all available financial tools that can help them plan for retirement,” said Senator Peters. “This legislation would put those using a 403(b) plan on a level playing field with other retirement plan participants by allowing them to invest in collective investment trusts, giving them an equal opportunity to achieve their financial goals.” 
    The Retirement Fairness for Charities and Educational Institutions Actwould expand retirement savings opportunities for non-profit employees by allowing 403(b) plan participants to invest in collective investment trusts (CITs). A CIT is a tax-exempt investment vehicle that provides a diversified, pooled investment option—similar to a mutual fund. CITs offer greater flexibility in investment strategies for retirement plans and reliable, often higher, net returns for plan participants.
    Under current law, unlike 401(k) holders, 403(b) plan sponsors are not able to use this stable investment option in their plan. This legislation would create parity between 403(b) and 401(k) retirement savings plans, benefitting over 15 million hardworking employees at hospitals, universities, charities, and other non-profit organizations.
    The Retirement Fairness for Charities and Educational Institutions Actis supported by the American Bankers Association, American Benefits Council, American Heart Association, American Life Insurance Association, American Retirement Association, Aon, Church Alliance, Great Gray, Insured Retirement Institute, Investment Company Institute, March of Dimes, MetLife, Mercer, Mission Square, National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors, National Council of Nonprofits, Nationwide, Prudential, SPARK Institute, Stable Value Investment Association, United Way, and Vanguard.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Chinese ring in Year of the Snake with travel, spending boom

    Source: China State Council Information Office 2

    Passengers are seen at the waiting hall of Beijing South Railway Station in Beijing, capital of China, Feb. 4, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    As China celebrated the arrival of the Year of the Snake, the festive atmosphere was reflected in a surge in travel and consumer spending. With tourism booming, restaurants bustling, and box offices setting new records, the festivities showcased China’s economic vitality.
    The Spring Festival, China’s most important festival, sparked a nationwide travel surge as families reunited and celebrations took place across the country. Official data showed that more than 2.3 billion passenger trips were made nationwide during the eight-day Spring Festival holiday, which concluded on Tuesday.
    Official projections estimated over 9 billion passenger trips during the 40-day Spring Festival travel rush that officially began on Jan. 14.
    The annual migration — once dominated by homebound travelers — now sees a growing number of people opting for holiday getaways, filling train stations, highways, and airports in celebration of the Year of the Snake.
    Tourism soars on heritage charm
    With China’s Spring Festival now on the UNESCO Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity, cultural exploration-centered tours have become increasingly popular.
    Online searches for “intangible cultural heritage tourism” jumped 174 percent since the beginning of this year, while folk craft-related searches spiked 321 percent, according to Meituan Travel. On the popular video-sharing platform Douyin, demand for intangible cultural heritage tours led to a 462 percent year-on-year rise in group tour bookings for folk fairs.
    According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, China saw a record 501 million domestic tourist trips during the just-concluded holiday, up 5.9 percent year on year. Tourist spending reached a record high of over 677 billion yuan (94.43 billion U.S. dollars) during the period, a 7 percent increase from the previous year.
    The cultural allure extended beyond domestic travelers, attracting visitors from around the globe. The latest data from the National Immigration Administration showed about 14.37 million cross-border trips were made during the holiday, up 6.3 percent from last year’s Spring Festival holiday. Of these, 958,000 trips were made by foreign nationals, marking a 22.9 percent increase.

    Foreign tourists try to make tofu during a folk celebration of the Spring Festival in Wayaogang Village, Yongding District of Zhangjiajie City, central China’s Hunan Province, Jan. 24, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    According to Chinese online travel service giant Trip.com Group, inbound travel orders during the Spring Festival holiday rose 203 percent year on year, underscoring the growing international appeal of China’s cultural and natural landmarks.
    Among the top destinations was Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province, renowned for its spectacular mountain scenery that inspired scenes in global blockbusters. Malaysian tourist Vincent Koh Swee Sam was among the many international visitors drawn to cultural heritage in Zhangjiajie. Immersing himself in local festivities, Sam joined villagers in writing Spring Festival couplets, pounding glutinous rice cakes, and making tofu.
    Sam’s hands-on experience with Chinese calligraphy deepened his appreciation for the art. “I used to know China only through textbooks and maps,” he said. “But now that I have stepped into it myself, it feels so good.”
    Dining boom feeds festive spirit
    No Spring Festival is complete without a grand feast, and this year, more families chose to dine out for ease and variety, driving a surge in restaurant bookings.
    In Shanghai’s bustling city center, all 91 tables at the renowned Cantonese restaurant Xinya were packed with diners on Chinese New Year’s Eve, according to executive chef Huang Renkang.

    People have a reunion meal at a restaurant in Nanjing City, east China’s Jiangsu Province, Jan. 28, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    According to the Ministry of Commerce (MOC), the revenues of key restaurants tracked by the ministry climbed 5.1 percent year on year in the first four days of the holiday.
    Online platforms saw a similar rise. Meituan reported a 305 percent year-on-year increase in online bookings for Chinese New Year’s Eve dinners, while high-end restaurants featuring Chinese culinary experiences saw significant growth.
    Notably, orders for “intangible cultural heritage” meal packages searched on Meituan soared over 12 times year on year since the beginning of this year.
    Box office hits record high
    From Chinese mythology to homegrown animation, this year’s Spring Festival film lineup drew massive crowds and posted record-breaking sales.
    China’s box office sales jumped to an all-time high of 9.51 billion yuan over the holiday period, while attendance also set a new record, with 187 million moviegoers packing theaters.

    People watch a film at a cinema in Feidong County, Hefei City, east China’s Anhui Province, Feb. 3, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Leading the charge was the animated feature “Ne Zha 2,” which grossed around 4.84 billion yuan.
    “The moviegoers’ enthusiasm indicates vibrant consumption during the holiday as well as the consumers’ confidence in domestic productions,” said Rao Shuguang, president of the China Film Critics Association.
    Experts attributed the success to strong audience anticipation, beloved characters and stories, and high-quality storytelling.
    “The strong performance of these films lays a solid foundation for the steady growth of China’s film market in 2025,” noted Chen Jin, a data analyst from box office tracker Beacon.
    Policy boost sparks shopping spree
    Festive cheer and consumer enthusiasm energized the market even before the holiday began. With the country’s trade-in program driving demand, shoppers eagerly seized the opportunity to upgrade cars, home appliances, and digital devices, ushering in a vibrant holiday shopping season.

    People visit a flower market in Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, south China’s Guangdong Province, Jan. 27, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    The MOC reported receiving subsidy applications for 10.79 million electronic devices over a four-day period starting Jan. 20. This follows the inclusion of mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches in the trade-in subsidy program, marking a significant expansion of the initiative launched in March last year.
    Moreover, according to the ministry, automobile trade-ins reached 34,000 while home appliance trade-ins reached 1.04 million units as of Jan. 23.
    Building on this momentum, online retail sales grew by 5.8 percent during the eight-day holiday, while sales of home appliances and communication equipment at key retailers jumped by over 10 percent.
    “Spring Festival offers a glimpse into the year’s economic trends,” said Chen Lifen, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council.
    In this holiday season, a blend of cultural experiences and new consumption scenarios has helped reinforce the economic recovery momentum, injecting confidence into the economy and setting a strong foundation for the year ahead, Chen noted.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Chinese developer completes delivery of Liqing-2 rocket engine

    Source: China State Council Information Office 2

    Delivery of China’s liquid oxygen kerosene engine, named Liqing-2, has been completed, its developer CAS Space said on Thursday.
    The delivered piece of equipment is a 110-tonne pin engine, according to the company. Pin injection was applied in both the gas generator and thrust chamber of Liqing-2, the first stage engine of the company’s Lijian series rockets.
    The engine thrust ratio ranges from 50 to 100 percent, CAS Space revealed, while adding that the ground thrust can reach 110 tonnes.
    The Liqing-2 engine development project was approved in the second quarter of 2023 — and production started in the first quarter of 2024.
    At the beginning of 2025, the engine completed the whole machine liquid flow test, assembly and delivery review.
    As the main rockets used in China’s commercial space industry, the Lijian-1 series has now launched a total of 57 satellites in the course of five flight missions.
    CAS Space is a commercial spaceflight company established by the Institute of Mechanics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: China urges US to optimize regulation on cross-border e-commerce

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    The U.S. imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese exports and its tweaking of “de minimis” exemption policy will drive up the costs for American consumers and dampen their shopping experience, He Yongqian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said on Thursday.

    When asked to comment on the erratic behavior of the U.S. Postal Service, which suspended accepting parcels from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong but reversed its decision a few hours later, He told a regular press conference that cross-border e-commerce has distinct advantages.

    Cross-border e-commerce caters to the personalized demands of consumers, offers quick delivery, and cuts down on costs. It has emerged as a significant trend in the development of international trade, He said.

    “No matter how a country adjusts its trade policies, the inherent advantages and features of cross-border e-commerce remain intact,” He said. “It still boasts strong competitiveness, and the overarching trend of digital transformation in international trade is here to stay.”

    China hopes that the United States will align with the development trends of international trade, streamline its regulatory mechanisms, and foster a fair and predictable policy ecosystem for cross-border e-commerce. By doing so, the United States can offer its domestic consumers a more convenient consumption environment, with high-quality products at reasonable prices, He added.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Universities – Green light for remote tech to sort the wood from the trees – Flinders

    Source: Flinders University

    New Zealand and Flinders University experts have deployed artificial intelligence and 3D laser scanning to accurately map planted pine (radiata) forests for most of NZ’s North Island.  

    The results, which distinguish planted large estates, small woodlots and newly established stands as young as three years old, showcase a new way of using remote sensing with other technology to reveal forest growth and update growth information.

    This approach is just as relevant for Australia, where radiata pine is also widely grown, says Dr Grant Pearse, Senior Lecturer in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) at Flinders University.

    “In New Zealand, where radiata pine plantations dominate the forestry sector, the current national forest description lacks spatially explicit information and struggles to capture data on small-scale forests,” says Dr Pearse, from the College of Science and Engineering at Flinders University in Adelaide, South Australia.

    “We combined deep learning-based forest mapping using high-resolution aerial imagery with regional airborne laser scanning data to map all planted forest and estimate key attributes.”

    The spatially explicit forest description provides wall-to-wall information on forest extent, age, and volume for all sizes of forest. This facilitates stratification by key variables for wood supply forecasting, harvest planning, and infrastructure investment decisions – applications equally valuable for other forestry industries.

    The research, with New Zealand timber industry researchers from Rotorua, Christchurch and Auckland, was carried out on planted forests in the Gisborne region, which has publicly available aerial imagery and airborne laser scanning data.

    This region is particularly significant as it was severely impacted by Cyclone Gabrielle in early 2023, which caused widespread landslides and forest debris flows.

    For such vulnerable terrain, knowing exactly where forests are located in the landscape, their age and condition is key to managing the risks of harvesting operations on the region’s steep slopes.

    “We propose satellite-based harvest detection and digital photogrammetry to continuously update the initial forest description. This methodology enables near real-time monitoring of planted forests at all scales and is adaptable to other regions with similar data availability,” researchers say in a new article.

    Along with the economic importance of NZ’s 1.8 million hectares of radiata pine forestry for export timber and fibre, these planted forests are a key part of the country’s emission trading scheme and are expected to play a significant role in achieving the government’s target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

    The forest map derived from artificial intelligence can be viewed at: www.forestinsights.nz

    In South Australia, plantation estates covering about 40,000 hectares support a $3 billion industry and employ 18,000 people as well as construction, manufacturing, tourism and regional communities.

    The article. ‘Developing a forest description from remote sensing: Insights from New Zealand’ (2024) byGrant D Pearse (Flinders University), Sadeepa Jayathunga, Nicolò Camarretta, Melanie E Palmer, Benjamin SC Steer, Michael S Watt (all Scion), Pete Watt and Andrew Holdaway (both Indufor Asia Pacific)  has been published in the journal Science of Remote Sensing. DOI: 10.1016/j.srs.2024.100183. (ref. https://www.forestinsights.nz/ )

    Acknowledgements: This project was funded through the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Strategic Science Investment Fund (administered by Scion, the New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd) and through the MBIE Programme (grant number C04X2101).

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is DOGE a cybersecurity threat? A security expert explains the dangers of violating protocols and regulations that protect government computer systems

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richard Forno, Teaching Professor of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, and Assistant Director, UMBC Cybersecurity Institute, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

    People protest DOGE’s access to sensitive personal data. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

    The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), President Donald Trump’s special commission tasked with slashing federal spending, continues to disrupt Washington and the federal bureaucracy. According to published reports, its teams are dropping into federal agencies with a practically unlimited mandate to reform the federal government in accordance with recent executive orders.

    As a 30-year cybersecurity veteran, I find the activities of DOGE thus far concerning. Its broad mandate across government, seemingly nonexistent oversight, and the apparent lack of operational competence of its employees have demonstrated that DOGE could create conditions that are ideal for cybersecurity or data privacy incidents that affect the entire nation.

    Traditionally, the purpose of cybersecurity is to ensure the confidentiality and integrity of information and information systems while helping keep those systems available to those who need them. But in DOGE’s first few weeks of existence, reports indicate that its staff appears to be ignoring those principles and potentially making the federal government more vulnerable to cyber incidents.

    Technical competence

    Cybersecurity and information technology, like any other business function, depend on employees trained specifically for their jobs. Just as you wouldn’t let someone only qualified in first aid to perform open heart surgery, technology professionals require a baseline set of credentialed education, training and experience to ensure that the most qualified people are on the job.

    Currently, the general public, federal agencies and Congress have little idea who is tinkering with the government’s critical systems. DOGE’s hiring process, including how it screens applicants for technical, operational or cybersecurity competency, as well as experience in government, is opaque. And journalists investigating the backgrounds of DOGE employees have been intimidated by the acting U.S. attorney in Washington.

    DOGE has hired young people fresh out of – or still in – college or with little or no experience in government, but who reportedly have strong technical prowess. But some have questionable backgrounds for such sensitive work. And one leading DOGE staffer working at the Treasury Department has since resigned over a series of racist social media posts.

    Wired’s Katie Drummond explains what the magazine’s reporters have uncovered about DOGE staffers and their activities.

    According to reports, these DOGE staffers have been granted administrator-level technical access to a variety of federal systems. These include systems that process all federal payments, including Social Security, Medicare and the congressionally appropriated funds that run the government and its contracting operations.

    DOGE operatives are quickly developing and deploying major software changes to very complex old systems and databases, according to reports. But given the speed of change, it’s likely that there is little formal planning or quality control involved to ensure such changes don’t break the system. Such actions run contrary to cybersecurity principles and best practices for technology management.

    As a result, there’s probably no way of knowing if these changes make it easier for malware to be introduced into government systems, if sensitive data can be accessed without authorization, or if DOGE’s work is making government systems otherwise more unstable and more vulnerable.

    If you don’t know what you’re doing in IT, really bad things can happen. A notable example is the failed launch of the healthcare.gov website in 2013. In the case of the Treasury Department’s systems, that’s fairly important to remember as the nation careens toward another debt-ceiling crisis and citizens look for their Social Security payments.

    On Feb. 6, 2025, a federal judge ordered that DOGE staff be restricted to read-only access to the Treasury Department’s payment systems, but the legal proceedings challenging the legality of their access to government IT systems are ongoing.

    DOGE email servers

    DOGE’s apparent lack of cybersecurity competence is reflected in some of its first actions. DOGE installed its own email servers across the federal government to facilitate direct communication with rank-and-file employees outside official channels, disregarding time-tested best practices for cybersecurity and IT administration. A lawsuit by federal employees alleges that these systems did not undergo a security review as required by current federal cybersecurity standards.

    There is an established process in the federal government to configure and deploy new systems to ensure they are stable, secure and unlikely to create cybersecurity problems. But DOGE ignored those practices, with predictable results.

    For example, a journalist was able to send invitations to his newsletter to over 13,000 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration employees through one of these servers. In another case, the way in which employee responses to DOGE’s Fork in the Road buyout offer to federal employees are collected could easily be manipulated by someone with malicious intent – a simple social engineering attack could wrongly end a worker’s employment. And DOGE staff members reportedly are connecting their own untrusted devices to government networks, which potentially introduces new ways for cyberattackers to penetrate sensitive systems.

    However, DOGE appears to be embracing creative cybersecurity practices in shielding itself. It’s reorganizing its internal communications in order to dodge Freedom of Information Act requests into its work, and it’s using cybersecurity techniques for tracking insider threats to prevent and investigate leaks of its activities.

    Lacking management controls

    But it’s not just technical security that DOGE is ignoring. On Feb. 2, two security officials for the U.S. Agency for International Development resisted granting a DOGE team access to sensitive financial and personnel systems until their identities and clearances were verified, in accordance with federal requirements. Instead, the officials were threatened with arrest and placed on administrative leave, and DOGE’s team gained access.

    The Trump administration also has reclassified federal chief information officers, normally senior career employees with years of specialized knowledge, to be general employees subject to dismissal for political reasons. So there may well be a brain drain of IT talent in the federal government, or a constant turnover of both senior IT leadership and other technical experts. This change will almost certainly have ramifications for cybersecurity.

    DOGE operatives now have direct access to the Office of Personnel Management’s database of millions of federal employees, including those with security clearances holding sensitive positions. Without oversight, this access opens up the possibilities of privacy violations, tampering with employment records, intimidation or political retribution.

    Support from all levels of management is crucial to provide accountability for cybersecurity and technology management. This is especially important in the public sector, where oversight and accountability is a critical function of good democratic governance and national security. After all, if people don’t know what you’re doing, they don’t know what you’re doing wrong.

    At the moment, DOGE appears to be operating with very little oversight by anyone in position willing or able to hold it responsible for its actions.

    Mitigating the damage

    Career federal employees trying to follow legal or cybersecurity practices for federal systems and data are now placed in a difficult position. They either capitulate to DOGE staffers’ instructions, thereby abandoning best practices and ignoring federal standards, or resist them and run the risk of being fired or disciplined.

    The federal government’s vast collections of data touch every citizen and company. While government systems may not be as trustworthy as they once were, people can still take steps to protect themselves from adverse consequences of DOGE’s activities. Two good starting points are to lock your credit bureau records in case your government data is disclosed and using different logins and passwords on federal websites to conduct business.

    It’s crucial for the administration, Congress and the public to recognize the cybersecurity dangers that DOGE’s activities pose and take meaningful steps to bring the organization under reasonable control and oversight.

    Richard Forno has received research funding related to cybersecurity from the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the US Army during his academic career since 2010.

    – ref. Is DOGE a cybersecurity threat? A security expert explains the dangers of violating protocols and regulations that protect government computer systems – https://theconversation.com/is-doge-a-cybersecurity-threat-a-security-expert-explains-the-dangers-of-violating-protocols-and-regulations-that-protect-government-computer-systems-249111

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Cortez Masto Introduces Bill to Protect Nevadans Who Hold Corporations Accountable in the Courts

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Nevada Cortez Masto

    Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto reintroduced legislation to protect American consumers who sue corporations after being defrauded. The End Double Taxation of Successful Consumer Claims Act will help ensure people who win fraud cases receive the full amount of damages they are awarded, rather than being unfairly taxed on fees awarded to their attorneys. The bill is cosponsored by Senators Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), and Tim Kaine (D-Va.).  

    “We should be encouraging Nevadans who are victims of fraud and abuse to hold bad actors accountable,” said Senator Cortez Masto. “Right now, the tax code unfairly punishes people who successfully sue corporations for fraud. My bill would make sure consumers who win fraud cases get their award and are not forced to pay thousands of dollars in taxes on funds awarded to their attorneys.”

    Currently the U.S. tax code unfairly penalizes people who sue corporations or companies for abuse or fraud. Consumers who win their cases often receive money to cover damages and their lawyer fees. But the tax code makes plaintiffs pay income tax on the full amount awarded by a court, even though most of that money goes to attorneys’ fees and not directly to the consumers. Many consumer fraud cases award only small amounts in damages, and if the consumer is taxed for the total amount they often end up owing more money in taxes than they are personally awarded. The End Double Taxation of Successful Consumer Claims Act will ensure that consumers are not liable for federal income taxes on money awarded to their attorneys. 

    As the former top law enforcement official in Nevada, Senator Cortez Masto has been a leading voice in the fight to protect consumers from fraud throughout her career. She sounded the alarm on increasing check fraud scams, which cost consumers millions of dollars each year. She introduced legislation to protect and support whistleblowers reporting wrongdoing to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and her bipartisan legislation to deter disruptive and potentially harmful phone calls and texts was signed into law in 2020.

    MIL OSI USA News –