Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kennedy Mbeva, Research Associate, University of Cambridge

A new world order is emerging. The United States is no longer the sole force shaping global events; countries like China, Russia, India and the Gulf states are growing in influence.

This shift has intensified global competition and made international cooperation more challenging. In today’s world, power, not rules, is the key driver of global affairs.

What is Africa’s role? Drawing on our research, we argue that the continent should adopt a pragmatic strategy involving two elements. First, identifying issues suitable for collective action, like climate diplomacy and a seat at the UN security council. Second, recognising those that require regional or domestic policy, such as regional conflicts and trade agreements.

We propose this approach because Africa is not a single state or supranational entity. A grand strategy is therefore impractical. Instead, our proposal accepts that some issues are best tackled collectively, while others may require regional or unilateral action.

New doctrines are needed

Countries could collectively adopt something like a “doctrine”, such as the Lagos Plan of Action (1980-2000). The plan outlines an ambitious goal of boosting Africa’s self-reliance through development and economic integration. Also, the Declaration of Monrovia of 1973, which emphasises the need for collective self-reliance. This was Africa’s contribution to the calls for a new international economic order at the end of the second world war. While these documents were developed to reflect the world at that time, they may serve as an inspiration for a new strategy that reflects the emerging new world order.

The Monroe and Truman doctrines outlined how the US could secure its global dominance. Both highlight the power of well-defined principles in guiding strategy.

African countries could adopt a new doctrine on how the continent can enhance its position in the emerging global order. The doctrine would present an opportunity for African countries to develop a clear and coherent strategy for effective engagement, appreciating the opportunities and limitations of the new world order. It should also appreciate the difficulty of coordinating diverse countries in the continent. This is possible by building on the spirit and legacy of Lagos and Monrovia strategies.

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Seismic changes

Geoeconomics, where security and economics influence geopolitics, is reshaping Africa.

Concerns have been raised about the possible termination of the African Growth and Opportunity Act by the US administration. This legislation grants African countries preferential access to the US market.

For their part, African countries established the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement in 2018 to create a continental common market and reduce dependence on the global economic system.

Yet Africa’s ambitious trade plans face threats from global shifts as well as internal dynamics. For example, the Trump administration has slammed high tariffs on virtually all trade partners, including African countries. Lesotho received the highest tariffs (50%) of all US trading partners. This might affect preferential access agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

Other major economies such as the EU and China are also exploring opportunities to conclude bilateral trade deals with African countries. These developments could undermine the goal of creating an exclusive continental market.

Internal dynamics within the continent are also not stable. When Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to form the Alliance of Sahel States in 2024, commentators blamed regional instability. We argue, however, that the breakup of Ecowas is a warning about the limits of integration.

The fact that the Alliance for Sahel States is based on a security pact rather than economic integration highlights how extreme risks can reconfigure continental unity. For fragile states, securing political stability is necessary for economic integration. Security rather than economics is the primary policy concern for such states.

Similar challenges arise in climate diplomacy. African countries, which have contributed least to global climate change, are pressured to assume greater responsibility with little international support. Yet they continue suffering its worsening impacts. At the same time, African states have received little of the international support necessary to support them to address climate action. Such support includes climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.

African policymakers have responded creatively by making their national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement conditional on international support in finance, technology transfer and capacity-building. And they say initiatives to address climate change should also contribute to the broader goals of sustainable development.

As we argue in a recently published book, this approach ensures that Africa can pursue sustainable development while contributing to the global climate effort. It also aligns with the continent’s long-standing emphasis on the development aspects of environmental politics.

The solution

Our suggestion is a simple, pragmatic concept: African countries should work together on some issues and act alone on others.

Unlike the common African positions adopted through the African Union, this approach clearly lays out when cooperation is best and when countries should follow their own path. It offers a clear set of guiding principles such as the need for flexibility for cooperation and unilateral actions when consensus is unattainable. This can serve as a blueprint for future policies and help coordinate Africa’s diplomacy.

This has several advantages. It’s simple and straightforward, recognises national differences while encouraging cooperation, and strengthens Africa’s voice and role on the global stage.

A major challenge is getting all countries to agree on how flexibility should balance between consensus and unilateral action by African countries.

But the strategy would acknowledge the need for flexibility to balance Africa’s ambition for greater global leadership. This must also be within the limits set by global and domestic realities.

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Looking forward

As the world adjusts to a new global order where multilateralism is in decline and power politics dominate, Africa can take advantage of opportunities to shape global affairs and secure its collective policy goals. This can be done through its seat at the G20.

But it requires a clear and coherent strategy.

Dr Kennedy Mbeva receives funding from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment

Reuben Makomere receives funding from University of Cambridge – Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CESR)

– ref. Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be – https://theconversation.com/power-drives-global-affairs-today-not-rules-what-africas-strategies-should-be-251078