Category: Economy

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

Legislation Summary

H. Con. Res. 14, the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2025, instructed the House Committee on Natural Resources to recommend legislative changes that would decrease deficits by not less than a specified amount over the 2025-2034 period. As part of the reconciliation process, the House Committee on Natural Resources approved legislation on May 6, 2025, with provisions that would decrease deficits.

Estimated Federal Cost

In CBO’s estimation, the reconciliation recommendations of the House Committee on Natural Resources would, on net, decrease deficits by $20.2 billionover the 2025-2034 period. The estimated budgetary effects of the legislation are shown in Table 1. The costs of the legislation fall within budget functions 300 (natural resources and environment) and 950 (undistributed offsetting receipts).

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Basis of Estimate

For this estimate, CBO assumes that the legislation will be enacted in summer 2025. CBO’s estimates are relative to its January 2025 baseline and cover the period from 2025 through 2034. Outlays of directly appropriated amounts were estimated using historical obligation and spending rates for similar programs.

CBO expects that the share of bonus bids, rents, and royalties from onshore oil, gas, coal, and renewable-energy production paid to states and counties would be subject to sequestration under the Budget Control Act of 2011. CBO estimates that a portion of those payments would be sequestered in each year, starting in 2027 and ending in 2032. However, in every subsequent year, starting in 2028 and ending in 2033, those amounts would be restored, resulting in a net zero budgetary effect over the 2025‑2034 period. CBO includes those effects in its estimates for sections 80101, 80111, 80121, 80122, 80141, 80144, 80181, 80301, 80303, 80304, and 80305.

Direct Spending

CBO estimates that enacting the legislation would decrease direct spending outlays by $19.0 billion over the 2025-2034 period (see Table 2).

Subtitle A. Energy and Mineral Resources

Subtitle A would require new lease sales on federal land for onshore and offshore oil and gas, coal, and renewable energy and would change permitting processes. CBO estimates that enacting the subtitle would decrease direct spending by $19.7 billion over the 2025-2034 period.

Federally owned energy resources are developed under a leasing system that requires companies to bid on tracts of land. Winning bidders remit payments called bonus bids when leases are issued; pay annual rent on nonproducing leases; and pay royalties on the value of any oil, gas, coal, or electricity produced from the leased land. Those payments are recorded in the budget as offsetting receipts—that is, as reductions in direct spending. Unless otherwise noted, those fees are deposited in the Treasury.

Part I. Oil and Gas

Sections 80101 through 80105 would increase the minimum number of oil and gas lease sales required each year, reinstate noncompetitive oil and gas lease sales, establish permitting by rule for oil and gas drilling, expand the practice of commingling oil and gas production, and reduce royalty rates for new onshore oil and gas leases from 16.67 percent to 12.5 percent. Those sections interact and CBO has shown the estimates of their combined budgetary effects under section 80101.

Onshore Oil and Gas Leasing Sales. Section 80101 would require the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to conduct at least four onshore oil and gas lease sales each year in specified states where land is available for oil and gas development under the Mineral Leasing Act. Under current law, the Department of the Interior (DOI) has discretion to postpone or cancel oil and gas lease sales; the section would require BLM to conduct a replacement sale if a sale is canceled. CBO estimates that the resulting number of onshore oil and gas leases would increase by 1,300 annually, on average, over the 2025-2034 period.

CBO estimates that the interactive effects of enacting this section and sections 80102 through 80105, discussed below, would increase offsetting receipts from bonus bids, rents, and royalties by $12.8 billion, on net, over the 2026-2034 period, after adjusting for the effects of sequestration.

Noncompetitive Leasing. Section 80102 would reinstate BLM’s authority, rescinded by the 2022 reconciliation act, to award federal land for oil and gas development in noncompetitive leases if no successful bids are made in a competitive sale. Using data from the agency, CBO estimates that enacting the section would increase onshore oil and gas leasing by 150 to 180 leases each year, thus increasing oil and gas production and related collections of royalties over the 2025‑2034 period. This provision interacts with other sections and CBO has shown the estimated budgetary effects under section 80101.

Permit Fees. Section 80103 would direct DOI to approve applications that allow operators to commingle onshore oil and gas production from multiple sources within a single well. Operators would be required to pay a $10,000 fee and install volume-measuring equipment to ensure appropriate oil and gas allocation and royalty payments. BLM currently allows onshore operators to commingle production under certain conditions; enacting this provision would expand that practice.

Information from industry sources and BLM indicates that commingling can produce larger yields over shorter periods than is likely with permitting and drilling separate wells. CBO estimates that under this provision DOI would approve an average of 1,000 applications annually over the 2025‑2034 period; thus, royalty collections would increase relative to current law.

Within two years of enactment, section 80103 also would require DOI to establish a permit-by-rule program. Under the program, leaseholders would purchase permits (at a cost of $5,000) allowing them to notify a permitting authority of their compliance with certain rules. That process would shorten the time to begin oil and gas development.

Using information from industry sources and BLM, CBO estimates that under this provision, DOI would receive more than 3,000 applications annually over the 2025-2034 period. We expect that oil and gas production would accelerate by about 200 days, on average, increasing royalty payments relative to current law. CBO further expects that under section 80103, future leased parcels would become more valuable, increasing future bonus bids for onshore leases. This provision interacts with other sections and CBO has shown the estimated budgetary effects under section 80101.

Permitting Fee for Non-Federal Land. Section 80104 would prohibit DOI from requiring permits to drill for oil and gas leases under certain conditions, including drilling in places where the federal government owns less than 50 percent of the minerals or does not own the surface of the drilling area. Operators would be required to pay a $5,000 fee for each lease. Using information from the agency, CBO estimates that fewer than 200 such cases would occur each year over the 2025-2034 period. CBO estimates that oil and gas production would accelerate by about a year in those cases, increasing royalties paid to the federal government. This provision interacts with other sections and CBO has shown the estimated budgetary effects under section 80101.

Reinstate Reasonable Royalty Rates. Section 80105 would reinstate a royalty rate of 12.5 percent for new onshore oil and gas leases. The 2022 reconciliation act set the royalty rate at 16.67 percent. (The legislation would not affect the royalty rate for outstanding leases.) CBO expects that one effect of lowering the rate would be to reduce royalty receipts from new lease sales that CBO projects would occur under current law. CBO also expects that lowering the rate would increase oil and gas production on those sites, because of the potential for increased profits for operators and leaseholders, thus increasing royalty collections. In addition, CBO expects that future leased parcels would become more valuable, thus raising future bonus bids on onshore leases. This provision interacts with other sections and CBO has shown the estimated budgetary effects under section 80101.

Under current law, through August 2032 the royalty rates for offshore oil and gas leases must be between 16.67 percent and 18.75 percent, and at least 16.67 percent after that. This provision would permanently set the rate between 12.5 percent and 18.75 percent. Based on royalty rates for recent oil and gas leasing, CBO expects that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) would continue to impose a rate of 18.75 percent; on that basis, CBO expects that the legislation would not affect the royalty rate for future offshore oil and gas leases.

Part II. Geothermal

Sections 80111 and 80112 would require annual geothermal lease sales and exclude power plants outside of the leasing area from paying royalties on geothermal resources used by those plants. The two sections interact and CBO has shown the estimates of their combined budgetary effects under section 80111.

Geothermal Leasing. Section 80111 would require DOI to hold annual geothermal lease sales and replace canceled or delayed sales within the same year. Sales would include parcels in each state that are eligible for geothermal development under the Federal Land and Management Act of 1976. Under current law, DOI holds geothermal lease sales every other year. Winning bidders remit bonus bids as leases are issued and they pay annual rent on nonproducing leases and royalties on the value of any electricity produced and sold from the leased land. Geothermal projects on federal land take between seven and nine years from leasing to electricity production, depending on permitting, exploration results, and financial resources.

Using information from the industry and data from BLM, CBO estimates that under the legislation DOI would issue about 450 new leases through 2034. CBO estimates that, after sharing a portion of those receipts with states and counties where the activities occur, the legislation would increase net offsetting receipts by $23 million from bonus bids, rents, and royalties over the 2025-2034 period, after adjusting for sequestration.

Geothermal Royalties. Section 80112 would exclude from royalty payments federal geothermal resources that support power plants located outside the boundaries of the federal geothermal leasing area. Under current law, using geothermal resources within or outside an area does not exempt lessees from paying royalties. Using data from BLM, CBO estimates that more than half of all power plants that access federal geothermal resources would be excluded from paying royalties under this provision, decreasing royalty payments under new leases.

Part III. Alaska

Part III would reinstate the Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program and require new lease sales in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.

Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing. Section 80121 would require BLM to reinstate six leases canceled after the 2021 lease sale. CBO expects that the lessees would repay the $8 million for bonus bids they received in reimbursements after the cancellation and that they would pay rent totaling $3 million a year until production begins.

This provision also would require BLM to conduct at least four oil and gas lease sales in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge within 10 years of enactment. BLM would be required to offer a minimum of 400,000 acres in each sale, or the total number of unleased acres available at the time of a sale. The legislation would require those sales to be conducted under terms established by the “Record of Decision for the Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program, Alaska,” dated August 21, 2020.

Section 80121 also would require BLM to issue any rights-of-way, easements, permits, or other necessary authorizations for the exploration, development, production, and transportation of oil and gas under those leases. Those authorizations would be considered to satisfy all federal laws, including the Alaska National Interest Lands Act, Endangered Species Act, and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and they would be exempted from judicial review. CBO expects that enacting those provisions would significantly increase the likelihood that companies would participate in each sale and the amount that companies would bid in those sales.

Using information from BLM, the U.S. Geological Survey, and industry experts, CBO estimates that the reinstated and new leases awarded under the legislation would increase net offsetting receipts to the federal government by $946 million from bonus bids, rents, and royalties over the 2025-2034 period, after adjusting for sequestration. That amount is adjusted for sequestration and incorporates the 50 percent that would be paid to Alaska under current law.

Estimates of bonus bids, rents, and royalties from leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge are uncertain. Potential bidders might make assumptions that are different from CBO’s, including assumptions about long-term oil prices, production costs, the amount of oil and gas resources in the area, production timelines, and alternative investment opportunities. The number of factors that affect companies’ investment and operation decisions result in wide ranges for bonus bids, rents, and royalties. CBO’s estimate represents the midpoint of those ranges.

National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. Section 80122 would direct DOI to resume the oil and gas leasing program under the Naval Petroleum Reserves Production Act of 1976, requiring a lease sale within one year of enactment, and every two years thereafter. Under regulations issued in 2020, BLM would offer a minimum of 4 million acres in each sale. The legislation would deem all sales to meet environmental requirements established in NEPA.

Using information from BLM, the U.S. Geological Survey, and industry groups, CBO estimates that bonus bids, rents, and royalties from the reinstated and new leases would increase net offsetting receipts by $532 million over the 2025‑2034 period, after adjusting for sequestration. That amount is adjusted for sequestration and incorporates the 50 percent that would be paid to Alaska under current law.

Part IV. Mining

Part IV would reinstate mining leases in national forest land in the state of Minnesota and require the necessary approvals and permits for a new road in Alaska.

Superior National Forest Lands in Minnesota. Section 80131 would rescind an order issued by BLM in 2023 that was effective for a period of 20 years and subject to valid existing rights. That order withdrew more than 225,000 acres of National Forest System land in Minnesota from mineral and geothermal leasing. This provision would require the Departments of Agriculture and the Interior to reissue all mineral leases for a 20-year term with an option for renewal. The remaining terms of the reinstated leases would be as they were originally and the leases would be exempt from judicial review.

Using information from BLM on the leases’ terms, CBO expects that leaseholders would pay combined annual rent and minimum royalties of about $400,000 and would pay a 6 percent royalty on the gross value of minerals mined. Based on information from the industry, CBO expects that state and local permitting and preproduction activities would take about seven years to complete. Because of uncertainty about when and whether leaseholders would obtain the necessary state permits, CBO used a 50 percent probability that production would begin after 2031 but before 2034. On that basis, CBO estimates that the federal government would collect $81 million in rents and royalties over the 2025-2034 period.

Ambler Road in Alaska. Section 80132 would require federal approval for rights-of-way, permits, licenses, leases, and any other authorizations needed to access public land for the construction of the Ambler Road across the western unit of the Gates of the Arctic National Preserve and the Central Yukon Planning Area in Alaska. All authorizations would be granted under the 2020 Ambler Road Environmental Impact Statement and would be exempt from judicial review. This provision also would establish an annual rent of $500,000 from 2025 through 2034. CBO estimates that enacting the provision would reduce direct spending by $4 million over the 2025-2034 period.

Part V. Coal

Part V would require DOI to rescind the temporary pause on coal leasing and reduce the royalty rate on existing and new coal leases. Sections 80141 through 80143 interact and CBO has shown the estimates of their combined budgetary effects under section 80141.

Coal Leasing. Section 80141 would direct DOI to process and approve qualified applications for coal leases and provide any necessary approvals for mining. The legislation also would require DOI to make available a minimum of 4 million additional acres with known recoverable coal reserves in the lower 48 states and Alaska. That requirement would exclude national parks and monuments as well as historic, wilderness, recreational, and conservation areas. After adjusting for the effects of sequestration, CBO estimates that the bonus bids, rents, and royalties would increase offsetting receipts by $237 million over the 2025‑2034 period.

Future Coal Leasing. Section 80142 would rescind a 2016 Secretarial Order from DOI that paused the issuance of new federal leases for thermal coal. This provision interacts with section 80141 and CBO has shown the estimated budgetary effects under that section.

Coal Royalty. Section 80143 would reduce the royalty rate on federal coal leases from 12.5 percent to 7 percent. That rate would apply to existing and new leases from the date of enactment through September 30, 2034. CBO estimates that the reduction would increase direct spending during the same period by reducing offsetting receipts. This section interacts with section 80141 and CBO has shown the estimated budgetary effects under that section.

Authorization to Mine Federal Minerals. Section 80144 would authorize the mining of all coal reserves under certain federal coal leases previously issued for about 800 acres in Montana. Mining authorizations would be provided in accordance with a 2020 mining plan modification. Using information from BLM, CBO estimates that enacting the provision would increase net royalties by $42 million in the 2025‑2034 period, after sharing 50 percent of the total receipts with the state of Montana. The estimate is adjusted for the effects of sequestration.

Part VI. NEPA

Part VI would authorize sponsors of projects that require environmental assessments or environmental impact statements under NEPA to pay a fee to potentially expedite completion of the assessments or statements and for exemption from judicial review.

Project Sponsor Opt-In Fees for Environmental Reviews. Section 80151 would authorize sponsors of projects that require environmental assessments or environmental impact statements under NEPA to pay a fee for a potentially expedited completion of the assessment or statement and for exemption from judicial review. The fee would be set at 125 percent of the anticipated costs to prepare or supervise the preparation of the assessment or statement.

CBO expects that the exemption from judicial review would accelerate the start date of some large, federally funded transportation, energy, and infrastructure projects that otherwise would have been delayed by litigation. Based on NEPA litigation data and factoring in the chance that projects would be delayed by other litigation (for example, challenges under the Endangered Species Act), CBO anticipates that enacting section 80151 would accelerate those projects by about two years. We also expect that some federally funded projects that would have been permanently stopped by a challenge under current law would commence under this provision. CBO estimates that accelerating or starting those formerly delayed or stopped projects would increase direct spending by $190 million over the 2025-2034 period. (CBO expects that federal funds for those projects would have been spent more slowly or would not have been spent at all, under current law.)

Finally, CBO expects that enacting section 80151 would accelerate the start of some energy projects on federal land, increasing the collection of rents and royalties over the 2025-2034 period. Those effects are included as interactive effects in other sections.

Rescission Relating to Environmental and Climate Data Collection. Section 80152 would rescind the unobligated balances of funds directly appropriated in the 2022 reconciliation act to the Council on Environmental Quality. Using information from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), CBO estimates that enacting this provision would decrease direct spending by $25 million over the 2025-2034 period.

Part VII. Miscellaneous

Part VII would require a fee for the filing of protests against oil and gas lease sales. The receipts collected under the provision would reduce direct spending.

Protest Fees. Section 80161 would establish filing fees to submit protests against oil and gas lease sales; the fees would depend on the number of pages and protests in each filing. Using data from BLM on protests and the estimated increases in oil and gas leasing under the legislation, CBO estimates that enacting the provision would increase offsetting receipts by $5 million over the 2025-2034 period.

Part VIII. Offshore Oil and Gas Leasing

Part VIII would require new sales of offshore oil and gas leases, authorize the commingling of offshore oil production from multiple reservoirs within a single well under certain conditions, and increase the amount of energy receipts that may be distributed to states and conservation programs. Sections 80171 and 80172 interact and CBO has shown the combined estimates of their budgetary effects under section 80171.

Mandatory Offshore Oil and Gas Lease Sales. Section 80171 would require BOEM to hold at least 30 lease sales in the Gulf of America during the 15 years after enactment and 6 lease sales in Alaska’s Cook Inlet during the 10 years after enactment. Those sales would be held annually according to a schedule described in the legislation.

In September 2023, BOEM released its five-year plan for holding Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas lease sales during the 2024-2029 period. The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act requires BOEM to issue leasing schedules; any significant revisions require a process for consultation and rulemaking. Under the current five-year plan, the agency intends to hold two more sales in the gulf: one each in 2027 and 2029. The plan does not include sales in the Alaska Outer Continental Shelf. The legislation would authorize BOEM to hold the new sales in addition to those in the five-year plan.

CBO expects that, under the legislation, BOEM would hold 24 additional offshore oil and gas sales by the end of 2034: 18 in the gulf and 6 in the Cook Inlet. Because planning and executing a lease sale takes between six months and two years, CBO expects that the sale that the legislation would require before August 15, 2025, would occur in a later year. CBO estimates that new offshore lease sales would generate $6.3 billion in bonus bids, rents, and royalties over the 2026-2034 period. That estimate includes the effects of enacting section 80172.

Offshore Commingling. Section 80172 would require DOI to approve operator requests to commingle offshore oil production from multiple reservoirs within a single well unless there is conclusive evidence that safety is threatened or aggregate production could decline. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement currently generally allows offshore leaseholders to commingle production if the pressure differential between reservoirs is under 200 pounds per square inch, though in one region, that differential is set at below 1,500 pounds per square inch. The legislation would authorize commingling at any pressure differential if safety and production are unaffected.

According to academic research and industry feedback, commingled wells can be more productive, on average, than sequential wells. On that basis, CBO expects that enacting the provision would increase the number of commingled wells, leading to increased production. CBO also expects that future leased tracts would become more valuable, increasing the amount of future bonus bids on offshore leases.

Using information from BOEM, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, and industry groups, CBO expects that the provision would increase offsetting receipts relative to current law. This section interacts with section 80171 and CBO has shown its effects in the estimate for that section.

Limitations of Amount of Distributed Qualified Outer Continental Shelf Revenues. Section 80173 would amend the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 to increase the amount of energy receipts that may be distributed to states and conservation programs. Under current law, not more than $500 million in receipts collected from leases entered into on or after December 2006 may be distributed in each year through 2055; the legislation would allow up to $650 million to be distributed in each year through 2034. CBO expects that the new funding resulting from increasing the cap would be subject to sequestration beginning in 2027, which would reduce spending by about $50 million over the 2027-2032 period. Accounting for sequestration, CBO estimates that increasing the cap to $650 million would increase direct spending outlays by $1.2 billion over the 2025-2034 period.

Part IX. Renewable Energy

Part IX would establish a standard formula to calculate the capacity fee (an equivalent to royalty payment) paid to the federal government under geothermal leases and require the Treasury to distribute a part of those receipts to the states and counties where the operations take place. Sections 80181 and 80182 interact and CBO has shown the estimate of their combined budgetary effects in the estimate for section 80181.

Renewable Energy Fees on Federal Lands. Section 80181 would establish a formula to calculate rental rates and the capacity fees paid to the federal government under solar and wind leases on federal land. A capacity fee is a royalty based on the energy produced and sold under those leases. Under current law, BLM establishes and can modify those formulas by rule. The capacity fee calculation under this provision would apply to existing and new leases and would, in CBO’s estimation, increase the total offsetting receipts collected relative to current law. Using information from BLM on current and estimated future wind and solar projects, CBO estimates that enacting the provision would increase offsetting receipts by $180 million over the 2025-2034 period, after adjusting for the effects of sequestration.

Renewable Energy Revenue Sharing. Section 80182 would require the Treasury to distribute 25 percent of the offsetting receipts from wind and solar leases on federal land to the states and counties where those operations take place. The federal government does not currently distribute any of those receipts to states. CBO estimates that enacting this provision would increase direct spending over the 2025-2034 period. This section interacts with section 80181 and CBO has shown its budgetary effects in the estimate for section 80181.

Subtitle B. Water, Wildlife, and Fisheries

Subtitle B would rescind certain unobligated balances from funds directly appropriated in the 2022 reconciliation act and provide funding for water storage and conveyance activities. CBO estimates that enacting the subtitle would increase outlays, on net, by $2.4 billion over the 2025-2034 period.

Rescission of Funds. Sections 80201 and 80202 would rescind certain unobligated balances of funds directly appropriated in the 2022 reconciliation act. Using information from OMB, CBO estimates that enacting those sections would decrease outlays over the 2025-2034 period by the following amounts:

• $100 million for Investing in Coastal Communities and Climate Resilience; and

$29 million for Facilities of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Surface Water Storage Enhancement. Section 80203 would provide $2 billion in 2025 to the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) to increase the capacity of existing surface water storage facilities. The section also would exempt those funds from cost-sharing, matching, and reimbursement requirements, which are typical for financing projects for developing water storage.

CBO expects that the funds would allow BOR to move forward with the Shasta Dam and Reservoir Enlargement Project by removing the requirement to engage a nonfederal partner. Based on historical spending patterns and information from the agency, CBO estimates that enacting this provision would increase direct spending by $2 billion over the 2025-2034 period.

Water Conveyance Enhancement. Section 80204 would directly appropriate $500 million in 2025 to BOR to increase the capacity of existing water conveyance facilities. Based on historical spending patterns and information from the agency, CBO expects that the amounts provided would be fully spent over the 2025-2034 period.

Section 80204 also would exempt the amounts provided from cost-sharing, matching, and reimbursement requirements, which are typical for financing conveyance projects. That could affect spending subject to appropriation, but CBO has not reviewed this provision for such effects.

Subtitle C. Federal Lands

Subtitle C would prohibit BLM from implementing certain resource management plans and rescind unobligated funds from the Forest Service and BLM. CBO estimates that enacting the subtitle would decrease direct spending by $1.6 billion over the 2025-2034 period.

Prohibition on the Implementation of Field Office Management Plans. Sections 80301 through 80305 would prohibit DOI from implementing, administering, or enforcing five BLM Resource Management Plans made final between October 2024 and January 2025 for the Rock Springs and Buffalo Field Offices in Wyoming, the Miles City Field Office in Montana, a statewide plan for North Dakota, and the Colorado River Valley and Grand Junction Field Offices in Colorado. After adjusting for the effects of sequestration, CBO estimates that enacting those provisions would decrease direct spending by a total of $261 million over the 2026-2034 period.

Rescissions of Funds. Sections 80306, 80307, 80308, and 80309 would rescind certain unobligated balances of funds directly appropriated in the 2022 reconciliation act. Using information from the OMB, CBO estimates that enacting those rescissions would decrease outlays over the 2025-2034 period by $287 million for the Forest Service, the National Park Service, and BLM.

Celebrating America’s 250th Anniversary. Section 80310 would provide $190 million for DOI to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States of America and establish and maintain a statuary park named the National Garden of American Heroes. Based on historical spending patterns, CBO expects that the directly appropriated amounts would be fully spent over the 2025-2034 period.

Long-Term Contracts for the Forest Service. Section 80311 would require the Forest Service to enter into at least one 20-year contract for timber harvesting per region each year over the 2025-2029 period. CBO expects that the sales required within one year of enactment would occur in a later year.

This section would establish the contracts’ terms and conditions. Under current law, proceeds from national forests’ timber sales are deposited into various funds, depending on the authority under which the sale is conducted; amounts deposited into those funds can be spent without further appropriation. This provision would require the proceeds from the sales conducted under the legislation to be deposited in the Treasury. Thus, CBO estimates that enacting the provision would decrease direct spending over the 2025-2034 period.

CBO estimates that section 80311 would interact with section 80313. That section would require the Forest Service to harvest and sell a minimum of 25 percent more timber than the amounts it sold in fiscal year 2024.

CBO estimates that of the additional timber sales conducted under section 80313, half could be harvested through the required long-term contracts. Using data on timber sales and accounting for the interaction between the two sections, CBO estimates that enacting those sections would increase offsetting receipts by $111 million over the 2025-2034 period.

Long-Term Contracts for the Bureau of Land Management. Section 80312 would require BLM to enter at least one 20-year contract for timber harvesting per region each year over the 2025-2029 period.

This section would establish the contracts’ terms and conditions. Under current law, most proceeds of timber sales on public land under the jurisdiction of BLM are deposited into various funds depending on the authority under which the sale is conducted; amounts deposited into those funds can be spent without further appropriation. This provision would require the proceeds from the sales conducted under the legislation to be deposited in the Treasury as offsetting receipts. Thus, CBO estimates that enacting the provision would decrease direct spending over the 2025-2034 period.

CBO estimates that half of the timber sold under section 80314 could be harvested under long-term contracts. That section would require BLM to harvest and sell a minimum of 25 percent more timber than it sold in fiscal year 2024. Using data on timber sales and accounting for the interaction between the sections, CBO estimates that enacting those sections would increase offsetting receipts by $46 million over the 2025-2034 period. Furthermore, CBO expects that the sales required within a year of enactment would occur in a later year. CBO expects that section 80312 would interact with section 80314 and the combined estimated budgetary effects are shown in the estimate for section 80312.

Bureau of Land Management Land in Nevada. Section 80315 would direct DOI to identify and convey federal land, managed by BLM, in non-metropolitan areas of four counties in Nevada. The provision would require BLM to sell the land below fair-market value upon request by certain counties to use it for affordable housing. Otherwise, the land would be sold or exchanged for a price that is at or above fair-market value. Proceeds from those sales are recorded in the budget as offsetting receipts.

Based on public maps describing available land for disposal in the state and information from BLM, CBO estimates that roughly 400,000 acres are identified for conveyance under this section. Much of that land is in Pershing County and is estimated to be encumbered with mining claims, millsites, or tunnel sites (roughly 250,000 acres). Encumbered land would be offered at fair-market value to the owner of the encumbrance under this section, and CBO expects that those acres would be conveyed over the 2025‑2034 period. For the remaining acres, CBO used a 50 percent probability that some of the available land would be identified for disposal and a 50 percent probability that the land so identified would be conveyed. On that basis, CBO estimates that 40,000 acres would be conveyed under the legislation over the next 10 years.

Using information from DOI, related organizations, and past land sales in the state, CBO estimates that enacting this section would reduce direct spending by $819 million over the 2025-2034 period.

Forest Service Land in Nevada. Section 80316 would direct the Department of Agriculture to identify and convey federal land managed by the Forest Service in Washoe County, Nevada. The provision would require the department to sell the land below fair-market value upon request by the county to use for affordable housing. Otherwise, the land would be sold at or above fair-market value. Proceeds from the sales would be recorded in the budget as offsetting receipts. Based on information from other land sales, CBO estimates that enacting section 80316 would reduce direct spending by $7 million over the 2025-2034 period.

Federal Land in Utah. Section 80317 would require DOI to convey roughly 11,000 acres of federal land managed by BLM in Utah. The section would require DOI to sell the land at or above fair-market value. CBO expects that identifying and conveying the land would take several years. Proceeds from the sales would be recorded in the budget as offsetting receipts Using information on land values from BLM, CBO estimates that enacting section 80317 would reduce direct spending by $293 million over the 2025-2034 period.

Revenues

Enacting the legislation would increase revenues by $1.2 billion over the 2025-2034 period. (see On that basis, CBO estimates that enacting section 80151 would increase revenues, on net, by $1.2 billion over the 2025-2034 period.

Uncertainty

Many of CBO’s estimates for spending and revenues are subject to uncertainty because they rely on underlying projections and other estimates that are themselves uncertain.

Several areas of the legislation are subject to particular uncertainty:

• Projecting bonus bids, rents, and royalties from onshore and offshore oil, gas, and coal leasing depends on future prices of those fuels and minerals, the number of new leases that would begin production within the 10-year window, and the amount of production per lease, all of which are subject to market conditions and individual responses by public and private-sector entities;
• Projecting bonus bids, rents, and royalties from renewable-energy leases depends on future prices of electricity and grid capacity, the number of new leases that would produce electricity, and the amount of electricity produced per lease, all of which are subject to market conditions and individual responses by public and private-sector entities;
• Estimating bonus bids for leases in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge requires CBO to make assumptions that might differ from those of potential bidders, including our projections of long-term oil and gas prices and estimated production costs. For more information about the uncertainty of the estimates related to Alaska, see the discussion above in the section “Part III. Alaska”;
• Anticipating market conditions and the risk tolerance of nonfederal entities make it difficult to project the amount of fees that those entities would pay for exemptions from judicial review under section 80151;
• Projecting timelines is difficult for federally funded projects that could accelerate or newly start because of the judicial review provision; and
• Projecting receipts from the conveyance of federal land in Nevada and Utah because of uncertain timelines, land value, and acreage.

Pay-As-You-Go Considerations

The Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 establishes budget-reporting and enforcement procedures for legislation affecting direct spending or revenues. The net changes in outlays and revenues that are subject to those pay-as-you-go procedures are shown in Acting Chief, Natural and Physical Resources Cost Estimates Unit

Kathleen FitzGerald
Chief, Public and Private Mandates Unit

Christina Hawley Anthony
Deputy Director of Budget Analysis

H. Samuel Papenfuss 
Deputy Director of Budget Analysis

Chad Chirico 
Director of Budget Analysis

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