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  • MIL-OSI Europe: Piero Cipollone: Navigating a fractured horizon: risks and policy options in a fragmenting world

    Source: European Central Bank

    Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the conference on “Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flow” organised by the Bank for International Settlements, the Bank of England, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund

    Frankfurt am Main, 29 April 2025

    I’m honoured to welcome you to this conference, jointly organised by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).[1]

    Today, we come together to discuss the urgent challenges posed by global fragmentation – a growing risk to our interconnected world. Earlier this month, the President of the United States announced tariff hikes, sending shockwaves through the global economy – a stark reminder that the fractures we face are no longer hypothetical, but real.

    This announcement is but the latest chapter in a series of four major shocks that have been reshaping our world in recent years.

    First, since 2018 the intensifying power struggle between the United States and China has led to tit-for-tat tariffs affecting nearly two-thirds of the trade between these two economic giants. Second, starting in 2020, the pandemic caused unprecedented disruptions to supply chains, which prompted a re-evaluation of the balance between global integration and resilience. Third, in 2022 Russia’s unjustified invasion of Ukraine not only triggered an energy crisis but also deepened a geopolitical divide that continues to have worldwide repercussions. And fourth, we are now facing the rising risk of economic fragmentation within the western bloc itself, as new trade barriers threaten long-standing international partnerships.

    The data paint a sobering picture. Geopolitical risk levels have surged to 50% above the post-global financial crisis average, and uncertainty surrounding trade policy has risen to more than eight times its average since 2021.[2] What we are experiencing is not merely a temporary disruption – it is a profound shift in how nations interact economically, financially and diplomatically. So, it does not come as a surprise that financial markets have experienced considerable volatility in recent weeks. It remains to be seen if, for markets to find a stable equilibrium, it will be enough to step back from the current international economic disorder towards a more stable, predictable and reliable trading system – a development that appears elusive in the short term. Against this backdrop, recent moves in exchange rates, bond yields and equities, suggest that US markets have not been playing their usual role as a safe haven in this particular episode of stress. This potentially has far-reaching longer-term implications for capital flows and the international financial system.

    Today I will focus on three key points. First, we are seeing increasing signs of fragmentation becoming visible across the economy and financial system. Second, the implications of this accelerating fragmentation could extend far beyond the immediate disruptions, with consequences for growth, stability and prosperity. Third, in this evolving economic landscape, central banks must adapt their approaches yet retain a steadfast focus on their core mandates, while striving to preserve international cooperation.

    The emerging reality of fragmentation

    Let me begin by addressing a common belief – still held by many until recently – that, despite rising geopolitical tensions, globalisation appears largely resilient. Headline figures in trade and cross-border investment, for example, do indeed appear to support this belief. In 2024 world trade expanded to a record USD 33 trillion – up 3.7% from 2023. Similarly, the global stock of foreign direct investment reached an unprecedented USD 41 trillion.[3] However, these surface-level indicators may not reflect the underlying realities, creating a misleading sense of stability when important changes are already underway. In reality, fragmentation is already happening in both the global economy and the financial system.

    Fragmentation of the real economy

    Fragmentation is most evident in rebalancing trade, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Take, for instance, the escalating US-China trade tensions that have been intensifying since 2018. Studies show the impact of geopolitical distance on trade has become notably negative. A doubling of geopolitical distance between countries – akin to moving from the position of Germany to that of India in relation to the United States – decreases bilateral trade flows by approximately 20%.[4]

    The series of shocks to the global economy in recent years have also contributed to this fragmentation. According to gravity model estimates, trade between geopolitically distant blocs has significantly declined. Trade between rivals is about 4% lower than it might have been without the heightened tensions post-2017, while trade between friends is approximately 6% higher.[5] Global value chains are being reconfigured as companies respond to these new realities. In 2023 surveys already indicated that only about a quarter of leading firms operating in the euro area[6] that sourced critical inputs from countries considered subject to elevated risk had not developed strategies to reduce their exposure.[7]

    However, these shifting trade patterns have not yet been reflected in overall global trade flows. Non-aligned countries have played a crucial role as intermediaries, or connectors, helping to sustain global trade levels even as direct trade between rival blocs declines.[8] But this stabilising influence is unlikely to endure as trade fragmentation deepens and geopolitical alliances continue to shift.

    The tariffs announced by the US Administration are far-reaching and affect a substantial share of global trade flows. The effects on the real economy are likely to be material. In its World Economic Outlook, published last week, the International Monetary Fund revised down global growth projections for 2025-26 by a cumulative 0.8 percentage points and global trade by a cumulative 2.3 percentage points.[9] This notably reflects a negative hit from tariffs that ranges between 0.4% to 1% of world GDP by 2027.[10] In particular, IMF growth projections for the United States have been revised down by a cumulative 1.3 percentage points in 2025-26. The cumulative impact on euro area growth is smaller, at 0.4 percentage points.

    Financial fragmentation

    The fragmentation we are witnessing in global trade is mirrored in the financial sector, where geopolitical tensions are also reshaping the landscape.

    In recent years, global foreign direct investment flows have increasingly aligned with geopolitical divides. Foreign direct investment in new ventures has plunged by nearly two-thirds between countries from different geopolitical blocs. However, strong intra-bloc investments have helped sustain overall foreign direct investment levels globally, masking some of the fragmentation occurring beneath the surface.[11]

    But, as with trade flows, this dynamic is unlikely to persist as geopolitical tensions grow within established economic blocs. For instance, increased geopolitical distance is shown to curtail cross-border lending. A two standard deviation rise in geopolitical distance – akin to moving from the position of France to that of Pakistan in relation to Germany – leads to a reduction of 3 percentage points in cross-border bank lending.[12]

    The impact of fragmentation in global financial infrastructure is perhaps even more revealing. Since 2014 correspondent banking relationships – crucial for facilitating trade flows across countries – have declined by 20%. While other factors – such as a wave of concentration in the banking industry, technological disruptions and profitability considerations – have played a role[13], the contribution of the geopolitical dimension can hardly be overstated. The repercussions of this decline can be profound. Research shows that when correspondent banking relationships are severed in a specific corridor, a firm’s likelihood of continuing to export between the two countries of that corridor falls by about 5 percentage points in the short term, and by about 20 percentage points after four years.[14]

    Contributing to this trend, countries such as China, Russia and Iran have launched multiple initiatives to develop alternatives to established networks such as SWIFT, raising the possibility of a fragmented global payment system.[15] Geopolitical alignment now exerts a stronger influence than trade relationships or technical standards in connecting payment systems between countries.[16] This poses risks of regional networks becoming more unstable, increased trade costs and settlement times, and reduced risk sharing across countries.

    Additionally, we are witnessing a noticeable shift away from traditional reserve currencies, with growing interest in holding gold. Central banks purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2024, almost double the level of the previous decade, with China being the largest purchaser, at over 225 tonnes. At market valuations, the share of gold in global official reserves has increased, reaching 20% in 2024, while that of the US dollar has decreased. Survey data suggest that two-thirds of central banks invested in gold to diversify, 40% to protect against geopolitical risk and 18% because of the uncertainty over the future of the international monetary system.[17] There are further signs that geopolitical considerations increasingly influence decisions to invest in gold. The negative correlation of gold prices with real yields has broken down since 2022, a phenomenon we have also observed in recent weeks. This suggests that gold prices have been influenced by more than simply the use of gold to hedge against inflation. Moreover, countries geopolitically close to China and Russia have seen more pronounced increases in the share of gold in official foreign reserves since the last quarter of 2021.

    The looming consequences of fragmentation

    Accelerating fragmentation is resulting in the immediate disruptions we are now seeing, but this is likely to only be the beginning – potentially profound medium and long-term consequences for growth, stability and prosperity can be expected.

    Medium-term impacts

    The initial consequences of fragmentation are already evident in the form of increased uncertainty. In particular, trade policy uncertainty has led to a broader rise in global economic policy instability, which is stifling investment and dampening consumption. Our research suggests that the recent increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce euro area business investment by 1.1% in the first year and real GDP growth by around 0.2 percentage points in 2025-26[18]. Consumer sentiment is also under strain, with the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey revealing that rising geopolitical risks are leading to more pessimistic expectations, higher income uncertainty and ultimately a lower willingness to spend.[19] Moreover, ECB staff estimates suggest that the observed increase in financial market volatility might imply lower GDP growth of about 0.2 percentage points in 2025.

    Over the medium term, tariffs are set to have an unambiguously recessionary effect, both for countries imposing restrictions and those receiving them. The costs are particularly high when exchange rates fail to absorb tariff shocks, and some evidence suggests exchange rates have become less effective in this role.[20]

    The Eurosystem’s analysis of potential fragmentation scenarios suggests that such trade disruptions could turn out to be significant. In the case of a mild decoupling between the western (United States-centric) and the eastern (China-centric) bloc, where trade between East and West reverts to the level observed in the mid-1990s, global output could drop by close to 2%.[21] In the more extreme case of a severe decoupling – essentially a halt to trade flows – between the two blocs, global output could drop by up to 9%. Trade-dependent nations would bear the brunt of these trade shocks, with China potentially suffering losses of between 5% and 20%, and the EU seeing declines ranging from 2.4% to 9.5% in the mild and severe decoupling scenarios respectively. The analysis also shows that the United States would be more significantly affected if it imposed additional trade restrictions against western and neutral economies – with real GDP losses of almost 11% in the severe decoupling scenario – whereas EU losses would increase only slightly in such a case.[22]

    The inflationary effects of trade fragmentation are more uncertain. They depend mainly on the response of exchange rates, firms’ markups and wages. Moreover, they are not distributed equally. While higher import costs and the ensuing price pressures are likely to drive up inflation in the countries raising tariffs, the impact is more ambiguous in other countries as a result of the tariffs’ global recessionary effects, which push down demand and commodity prices, as well as of the possible dumping of exports from countries with overcapacity. The short to medium-term effects may even prove disinflationary for the euro area, where real rates have increased and the euro has appreciated following US tariff announcements.

    In fact, a key feature of most model-based assessments is that higher US tariffs lead to a depreciation of currencies against the US dollar, moderating the inflationary effect for the United States and amplifying it for other countries. But so far we have seen the opposite: the risk-off sentiment in response to US tariff announcements and economic policy uncertainty have led to capital flows away from the United States, depreciating the dollar and putting upward pressure on US bond yields. Conversely, the euro area benefited from safe haven flows, with the euro appreciating and nominal bond yields decreasing.

    Long-term structural changes

    The long-term consequences of economic fragmentation are inherently difficult to predict, but by drawing on historical examples and recognising emerging trends, it’s clear that we are on the verge of significant structural changes. Two areas stand out.

    The first one is structurally lower growth. On this point, international economic literature has reached an overwhelming consensus.[23] Quantitatively, point estimates might vary. For example, research of 151 countries spanning more than five decades of the 20th century reveals that higher tariffs have typically led to lower economic growth. This is largely due to key production factors – labour and capital – being redirected into less productive sectors.[24]

    However, data from the late 19th and early 20th centuries, a period which tariff supporters often look back to, seem to tell a different story. At that time, trade barriers across countries were high – the US effective tariff rate, for example, reached almost 60%, twice as high as after the 2 April tariffs. And sometimes countries imposing higher trade barriers enjoyed higher growth, which may provide motivation for current policymakers’ trade tariff policies. But these episodes need to be read in historical context. Before 1913, tariffs mostly shielded manufacturing, a high-productivity sector at the time, attracting labour from other, less productive sectors, like agriculture. Therefore, their negative effects were mitigated by the expansion of industries at the frontier of technological innovation. Moreover, the interwar years offer further nuance – the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s had relatively limited direct effects on US growth, mainly because trade accounted for just 5% of the economy.

    But today’s tariffs are unlikely to replicate the positive effects seen in the 19th century. Instead, they risk creating the same inefficiencies observed in the course of the 20th century, by diverting resources from high-productivity sectors to lower-productivity ones. This contractionary effect could lead to persistently lower global growth rates. In fact, the abolition of trade barriers within the EU and the international efforts towards lower trade barriers in the second half of the 20th century were a direct response to the economic and political impact of protectionism,[25] which had played a key role in worsening and prolonging the Great Depression[26] and had contributed to the formation of competing blocs in the run-up to the Second World War.[27]

    The second long-term shift driven by fragmentation might be the gradual transition from a US-dominated, global system to a more multipolar one, where multiple currencies compete for reserve status. For example, if the long-term implications of higher tariffs materialise, notably in the form of higher inflation, slower growth and higher US debt, this could undermine confidence in the US dollar’s dominant role in international trade and finance.[28] Combined with a further disengagement from global geopolitical affairs and military alliances, this could, over time, undermine the “exorbitant privilege” enjoyed by the United States, resulting in higher interest rates domestically.[29]

    Moreover, as alternative payment systems gain traction, regional currencies may start to emerge as reserves within their respective blocs. This could be accompanied by the rise of competing payment systems, further fragmenting global financial flows and international trade. Such shifts would increase transaction costs and erode the capacity of countries to share risks on a global scale, making the world economy more fragmented and less efficient.

    The central bank’s role in a fragmented world

    So, as these tectonic shifts reshape the global economic landscape, central banks must adapt their approaches while remaining steadfast in their core mandates. The challenges posed by fragmentation require a delicate balance between confronting new realities and working to preserve the benefits of an integrated global economy. In order to navigate the present age of fragmentation, it is necessary to take action in four key areas.

    First, central banks must focus on understanding and monitoring fragmentation. Traditional macroeconomic models often assume seamless global integration and may not fully capture the dynamics of a fragmenting world. Enhanced analytical frameworks that incorporate geopolitical factors and how businesses adjust to these risks will be essential for accurate forecasting and effective policy formulation. The Eurosystem is reflecting on these issues.

    Second, monetary policy must adapt to the new nature of supply shocks generated by fragmentation. The effects of the greater frequency, size and more persistent nature of fragmentation-induced shocks and their incidence on prices require a careful calibration of our monetary responses. In this respect, our communication needs to acknowledge the uncertainty and trade-offs we face while giving a clear sense of how we will react depending on the incoming data. This can be done by making use of scenario analysis and providing clarity about our reaction function, as emphasised recently by President Lagarde.[30]

    Third, instead of building walls, we must forge unity. Even as political winds shift, central banks should strengthen international cooperation where possible. Through forums such as those provided by the BIS and the Financial Stability Board, we can keep open channels of cooperation that transcend borders. Our work on cross-border payments stands as proof of this commitment in line with the G20 Roadmap[31]. The ECB is pioneering a cross-currency settlement service through TARGET Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS) – initially linking the euro, the Swedish krona and the Danish krone. We are exploring connections between TIPS and other fast-payment systems globally, both bilaterally and on the basis of a multilateral network such as the BIS’ Project Nexus.[32]

    And fourth, central banks must enhance their capacity to address financial stability risks arising from fragmentation. The potential for sudden stops in capital flows, payment disruptions and volatility in currency markets requires robust contingency planning and crisis management frameworks. Global financial interlinkages and spillovers highlight the importance of preserving and further reinforcing the global financial safety net so that we can swiftly and effectively address financial stress, which is more likely to emerge in a fragmenting world.[33]

    In fact, the lesson from the 1930s is that international coordination is key to avoiding protectionist snowball effects, where tit-for-tat trade barriers multiply as each country seeks to direct spending to merchandise produced at home rather than abroad.[34] In order to avoid this, the G20 countries committed to preserving open trade could call an international trade conference to avoid beggar-thy-neighbour policies[35] and instead agree on other measures, such as macroeconomic policies that can support the global economy in this period of uncertainty and contribute to reduce global imbalances.

    Let me finally emphasise that the current situation also has important implications for the euro area. If the EU upholds its status as a reliable partner that defends trade openness, investor protection, the rule of law and central bank independence, the euro has the potential to play the role of a global public good. This requires a deep, trusted market for internationally accepted euro debt securities. That is why policy efforts to integrate and deepen European capital markets must go hand in hand with efforts to issue European safe assets.[36]

    Conclusion

    Let me conclude.

    As we stand at this crossroads of global fragmentation, we must confront an uncomfortable truth: we are drifting toward a fractured economic and financial landscape where trust is eroded and alliances are strained.

    Central banks now face a double challenge: to be an anchor of stability in turbulent economic waters while reimagining their role in a world where multiple economic blocs are forming. The question is not whether we adapt, but how we mitigate the costs of fragmentation without sacrificing the potential of global integration.

    Our greatest risk lies not in the shocks we anticipate, but in the alliances we neglect, the innovations we overlook and the common ground we fail to find. The future of global prosperity hinges on our ability to use fragmentation as a catalyst to reinvent the common good.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Victory of the State University of Management: Our Students Conquered the All-Russian Festival of Social Projects

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: State University of Management – Official website of the State –

    Projects by students of the Institute of Marketing of the State University of Management became winners and prize-winners of the annual All-Russian student festival of social projects “Media Class”.

    The festival has been uniting creative youth of Russia for over 20 years. The theme of this year’s festival was thinking in code.

    The projects of our university students revealed aspects of the implementation of new technologies, the possibilities of artificial intelligence, and ways of solving social problems using neural networks.

    GUU teams that became winners of the “Media Class” festival

    Nomination “Audio”

    1st place – project “Get offline”. Authors: Natalia Kruglova, Nina Smirnova (students of the “RISSO in business 3-3” group). Leader – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    1st place – project “Take a break and come back to life”. Authors: Anisimova Ioanna, Petrosyan Diana (students of the group “PNB 3-1”). Leader – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    “Our audio clip is dedicated to the problem of digital burnout, excessive involvement of children and young people in the digital space and social networks. We set ourselves the task of not only identifying the problematic situation, but also offering optimal solutions. We used the dialogization technique to make the impact of the text on the target audience more focused!”, shared student Ioanna Anisimova.

    2nd place – project “The Terrible Truth”. Authors: Daria Yezhova, Elizaveta Fedoseeva (students of the “RISSO in Business 3-1” group). Leader – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    2nd place – project “Quarter-life crisis”. Author: Tatyana Letunova (student of the “RISSO in business 3-1” group). Supervisor – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    “Many people think that youth is a time of entertainment, carelessness, frivolity. But this is not so. Many young people experience stress from social pressure, anxiety due to uncertainty, lack of confidence due to the need to choose their future profession. In the audio clip, I urge young people to reduce their anxiety level, stop to think about the present and the future,” admitted Tatyana Letunova.

    3rd place – project “Save the Silence of the Forest”. Authors: Ksenia Ignatyeva, Anna Vaslyaeva (students of the “RISSO in Business 3-1” group). Leader – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    3rd place – project “Say no to energy drinks”. Authors: Ulyana Sorokina, Sofia Alekseeva (students of the “RISSO in business 3-3” group). Leader – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    Nomination “Text”

    1st place – project “Artificial Intelligence”. Author: Maria Markosyan (student of the “PNB 1-1” group). Supervisor – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    “In my essay, I discussed how artificial intelligence can help solve social and environmental problems. I looked at different problem situations that people face and outlined the capabilities that artificial intelligence has for solving various problems, the main thing is to learn how to use it correctly,” said Maria Markosyan.

    Nomination “Complex social project”

    1st place – project “Never abandon your pets”. Authors: Anna Badayeva, Ksenia Stavtseva (students of the “RISSO in business 3-1” group). Leader – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    2nd place – projects “Digital pensioners”, “Leaving online?”, “Modern farm”. Author: Marina Zotkina (master’s student of the “Producing advertising communications 1-1” group). Supervisors – Elena Dianina, Alexandra Timokhovich.

    “I am very happy that the social projects that we develop and implement during our studies are recognized and supported. When choosing the bachelor’s and master’s degree programs related to advertising and PR communications, I set myself the goal of contributing to the development of society. Thanks to my project managers, Elena Dianina and Alexandra Timokhovich, I can move forward and implement new ideas,” said Marina Zotkina.

    3rd place – project “Loneliness among youth”. Authors: Adamova Nelli, Yarmukhamedova Kamiliya (students of the group “RISSO in business 3-1”). Leader – Alexandra Timokhovich.

    We congratulate the winners and leaders of student projects, wishing them creative inspiration and further success!

    Subscribe to the TG channel “Our GUU” Date of publication: 04/29/2025

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    “Together we will build a Canada worthy of our values,” he told cheering supporters in his victory speech in Ottawa.

    Canadians gave the Liberals their fourth mandate since 2015, although the race against the Conservatives was much closer than polls predicted.

    Nonetheless, only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Jagmeet Singh losing his own seat in Burnaby, B.C. and then resigning as party leader. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of the election, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-leads-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Liberal Mark Carney’s election win in Canada means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election may not only shape Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Liberal Mark Carney’s election win in Canada means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-liberal-mark-carneys-election-win-in-canada-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: India and Pakistan are on war footing. Can they be brought back from the brink?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University; and Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow, Victoria University

    India and Pakistan are once again at a standoff over Kashmir. A terror attack last week in the disputed region that killed 26 tourists – mostly Indian – has brought the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals close to a devastating conflict.

    India claims the incident was an act of cross-border terrorism supported by Pakistan and has vowed to hunt down and punish the perpetrators. In retaliation, it has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty to deprive Pakistan of water from the Indus River, which runs through the Indian-controlled region of Jammu and Kashmir.

    Pakistan has condemned India’s action as an “act of war”.

    Both sides have put their forces on alert as low-level clashes have broken out along the “Line of Control”, the de facto border established in the region following the first Indo-Pakistan war in 1947–48.

    Pakistan’s defence minister now says a “military incursion” by India is imminent. Can all-out war between the two sides be averted?

    A long-simmering dispute

    At the time of the painful partition of British India in the 1940s, the country’s Muslim minority were given the option of joining the newly created state of Pakistan. Kashmir’s Hindu ruler initially wanted independence for the region, but in fear of invaders from Pakistan, decided to join India.

    This laid the foundations for an enduring, bitter dispute over control of the Muslim-majority region. Attempts at a resolution have been hard to come by.

    The dispute has also become intrinsically linked to the political and strategic postures of the two protagonists.

    New Delhi has vehemently opposed any nationalist demands for independence in Jammu and Kashmir. It fears this would set a precedent for many other minorities who want autonomy in multi-ethnic India.

    Initially, the region was given a special autonomous status under Article 370 of the Indian constitution. But since 2014, the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has forcefully sought to bring Jammu and Kashmir under New Delhi’s control.

    In 2019, it revoked Article 370 and isolated the region from the rest of India and the outside world.

    Modi’s government argued this was necessary to bring progress and prosperity to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. In reality, it was aimed at squashing separatist movements and easing the way for more Hindus to move to the territory.

    Pakistan condemned the scrapping of Article 370, exacerbating the tensions between the two regional powers.

    New Delhi has also accused Pakistan of involvement in cross-border terrorist acts over the years. Islamabad has refuted New Delhi’s claims and castigated it for human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir and for denying the people their right to self-determination.

    Nuclear deterrence has been effective

    India and Pakistan fought two wars in 1965 and 1971, the latter resulting in the dismemberment of Pakistan and creation of the state of Bangladesh.

    In 1999, the two rivals came very close to a nuclear exchange in the limited Kargil War in Kashmir, but pulled back from the brink. As I wrote at the time, the consequences of a nuclear war played a crucial role in both sides eventually backing down.

    This is also the main reason the protagonists have not fought another all-out war in five decades, notwithstanding periodic clashes along the Line of Control and the Kargil conflict. And nuclear deterrence may once more prove effective in preventing the two sides from escalating the current conflict.

    Pakistan is also going through a very politically, economically and socially fragile period in its history.

    The country has been in political turmoil since the ousting and arrest of popular Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2023. The economy is in the doldrums. And the government faces a renewed threat from the Pakistani Taliban, amid growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    The main force holding Pakistan together is the military and the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.

    India is facing its own challenges, despite being in a more stable position. The Modi government’s Hindu nationalism has marginalised minority groups, in particular the country’s Muslim population. And income inequality is growing, with the richest 1% of the country holding 58% of the wealth.

    Neither country can afford a war right now – particularly one with potentially catastrophic consequences.

    Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. India and Pakistan are on war footing. Can they be brought back from the brink? – https://theconversation.com/india-and-pakistan-are-on-war-footing-can-they-be-brought-back-from-the-brink-255504

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tempted to turn on the aircon? Science says use fans until it’s 27°C

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Federico Tartarini, Senior Lecturer, School of Architecture Design and Planning, University of Sydney

    New Africa, Shutterstock

    Many Australians struggle to keep themselves cool affordably and effectively, particularly with rising electricity prices. This is becoming a major health concern, especially for our most vulnerable people such as the elderly, pregnant women and people with cardiovascular diseases.

    Air conditioning is often seen as the only solution to this problem. But relying too heavily on aircon has major downsides. These include hefty electricity bills, increased greenhouse gas emissions, strain on an already weak electricity grid, and dumping heat from buildings to the outside – further heating the outdoor air.

    Our latest research, published in the Medical Journal of Australia, highlights a simple yet effective solution: a “fan-first” cooling approach.

    The approach is simple: use electric fans as your first cooling strategy, and only turn on air conditioning when the indoor temperature exceeds 27°C.

    Fan-First Cooling: The Smart Way to Beat Australia’s Heat Crisis (Federico Tartarini)

    The solution: ‘fan-first’ cooling

    Electric fans can make you feel more comfortable on a hot day simply by moving the air around you. This helps our body release heat in two ways: improving the transfer heat from your body into the air, and increasing the evaporation of sweat from your skin.

    A gentle breeze can make you feel up to 4°C cooler, even when the weather is very hot and humid.

    This allows you to increase the aircon set-point (the temperature at which cooling turns on) from 23-24°C to 27-28°C. This simple change can significantly reduce the amount of time your aircon is running, leading to substantial energy savings.

    For example, in our previous research we showed raising the office air conditioning set-point from 24 to 26.5°C, with supplementary air movement from desk and ceiling fans, reduced energy consumption by 32%, without compromising thermal comfort.

    Don’t fans still use electricity to run?

    Yes fans still use electricity, but it’s as little as 3% of the electricity used to run air conditioning. That means you can run more than 30 fans with the same amount of energy it takes to run a single aircon unit.

    A basic pedestal fan is cheap to buy (A$20 to $150), requires no installation and minimal maintenance, and can be easily moved around to keep you cool in any part of your house. Simply turn on the fan as soon as you start feeling slightly warm.

    Fans cool you, whereas aircon cools the whole space, which is less efficient.

    We also previously showed that using fans rather than airconditioning is a more effective emissions reduction strategy than switching from old-fashioned incandescent light bulbs to LED lighting.

    The problem with over-reliance on aircon

    Globally, the use of air conditioning is rapidly increasing. Aircon units sales have tripled since 1990 and are projected to triple again in 2050. It is becoming the go-to solution to heat management.

    Aircon is effective but is expensive to buy, run and maintain.

    A recent survey showed while most people have aircon, two thirds did not use it due to cost concerns.

    Beyond the financial burden, the environmental impact of aircon is substantial. In Australia, electricity mainly comes from burning fossil fuels, creating greenhouse gas emissions. Even with the growth of renewable energy, the sheer demand for aircon cooling could strain the transition and the grid.

    Furthermore, the refrigerants used in most aircon units are potent greenhouse gases. It will also take time to replace older and less efficient aircon units.

    Aircon units also release heat into the outdoor environment, worsening the urban heat island effect – the phenomenon where cities are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas.

    Finally, over-reliance on aircon might reduce our ability to cope with heat. If we constantly keep our indoor temperatures very low, our bodies may not acclimatise to warmer summer conditions, making us more vulnerable during power outages.

    Annual sales of air conditioning units have more than tripled globally since 1990.
    aapsky, Shutterstock

    Using fans safely and effectively

    While fans offer numerous benefits, it’s important to use them correctly, especially in very hot indoor conditions.

    There’s a common misconception that fans should be turned off above 35°C because they might blow hot air onto the skin. This ignores the crucial role fans play in evaporating sweat.

    We have established safer and more accurate temperature thresholds for fan use by conducting laboratory studies. Just remember to check the temperature indoors, not outdoors.

    Electric fans can be safely used in indoor temperatures up to:

    • 39°C for young, healthy adults.
    • 38°C for older adults.
    • 37°C for older adults taking anticholinergic medications (which can impair sweating).

    Above these indoor temperatures, fans could worsen heat strain by increasing cardiovascular strain and core body temperature. In such situations, alternative cooling strategies such as wetting the skin, moving to a cooler place, or turning the aircon on are essential.

    Below these thresholds, we have proven, in laboratory studies, that there’s no reason to switch fans off, because they provide further thermal comfort and reduce heat stress.

    Climate change means many people are experiencing hotter summers.
    Zhuravlev Andrey, Shutterstock

    Take action now

    Based on our field and lab research, we suggest five simple steps to using fans for managing heat at home:

    1. consider buying pedestal or ceiling fans

    2. point the fan at your body and adjust the speed to your liking

    3. wear light clothing and stay hydrated

    4. if you have aircon, increase the set-point to 27-28°C

    5. enjoy a reduced energy bill and increased comfort.

    You may also want to ask your employer to install fans at your workplace and share this “fan-first” cooling strategy with family and friends.

    Let’s work together towards a more sustainable future by reducing our reliance on energy-intensive air conditioning. This will lead to lower electricity costs, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and increased resilience to heat.

    Federico Tartarini is affiliated with the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE).

    Angie Bone is a Board Member of Doctors for the Environment Australia.

    Ollie Jay receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Wellcome Trust (UK).

    – ref. Tempted to turn on the aircon? Science says use fans until it’s 27°C – https://theconversation.com/tempted-to-turn-on-the-aircon-science-says-use-fans-until-its-27-c-252018

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney is projected to have pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of the election, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-projected-to-lead-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Health – Alcohol and mental health symposium at Parliament – 5 May 2025

    Source: Alcohol Healthwatch

    Alcohol Healthwatch are excited to be joining E Tipu E Rea Whānau Services, Takanga A Fohe, Le Va, Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka | University of Otago, Health New Zealand | Te Whatu Ora, and the Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and Other Drugs (APSAD) deliver a symposium on alcohol and mental health.
    This symposium will take place at the Grand Hall in Parliament, and aims to:
    – Hear from and build on promising practice in prevention, early intervention, and research.
    – Facilitate meaningful relationships supporting the collective goal of taking action on the intersection between alcohol and mental health challenges.
    – Produce an attendee-informed consensus statement reflecting people’s experiences to guide future efforts in this space.
    Boasting a 150 strong audience of health and policy professionals, mental health and alcohol NGOs and importantly, individuals bringing lived experience, the symposium will be an opportunity to identify key action areas for prevention and early intervention in this important area.
    Hosted by Aotearoa New Zealand’s first-ever Minister for Mental Health, Hon. Matt Doocey, the time to act has never been better. We will be bringing a range of people together including those with lived experience, young people, professionals, and community champions from the wide range of sectors impacted by alcohol and mental health challenges.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Public school educators are still underpaid, four new NEA reports show

    Source: US National Education Union

    By: Joshua Horwich

    Published: April 29, 2025

    WASHINGTON — U.S. educators still suffer from too-low wages and a lack of professional respect, according to four new reports examining educator pay and school funding from pre-K through college. The National Education Association’s annual reports today show salaries continue to lag behind inflation. These poor wages are not without consequence: Too-low pay exacerbates the national teacher shortage, making it difficult for school districts to attract and retain quality educators while also worsening educator morale.

    Thanks to strong advocacy by NEA members and some elected leaders stepping up, teachers received the most significant year-over-year pay increase in more than a decade. States such as California, Colorado, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon demonstrated significant progress in teacher pay, putting more money into educators’ pockets. Meanwhile, states like Montana and Rhode Island led the way in increasing pay for K-12 education support professionals. At the same time, Maryland, Nevada, and Wisconsin showed the largest increases in faculty pay at public four-year universities.

    Despite this progress, much work remains to eliminate the teacher pay penalty, address inadequate pay for all educators, and finally make the investments necessary at the state and local levels to attract and retain quality educators in public schools. Additionally, in places like Arkansas, the increases in teacher pay were tied to legislation that took money out of public education and put it into the hands of billionaires eager to line their pockets, hurting students in the long run.

    “In some states, educators are seeing long-overdue pay increases, thanks to union-led advocacy, but overall, educator pay is still not keeping up with inflation. This hard-won progress is now under threat from the Trump administration’s careless, callous, and reckless actions, and students will pay the price,” said NEA President Becky Pringle. “Their plans to gut public education will rip funding from public schools and roll back these very same gains to help provide competitive and professional pay to educators. These resources are desperately needed to ensure every student has access to every opportunity needed to succeed. What is happening at the federal level is not just an attack on educators—it’s an attack on every student and every family in every community of this country.”

    The data released today includes “Rankings and Estimates,” a report NEA has produced since the 1960s, which is widely cited as an authoritative source on average teacher salaries and per-student expenditures. NEA’s “Teacher Salary Benchmark Report” provides information from over 12,000 school districts on starting teacher salaries and salaries at other points of the teaching career continuum. The “Education Support Professional Earnings Report” offers a pay breakdown for school support staff, also known as education support professionals, working in K-12 public schools and higher education. NEA’s “Higher Education Faculty Salary Analysis” examines full-time faculty and graduate assistant salaries at the national, state, and institutional levels. Additionally, NEA released financial snapshots for four demographics: teachers at the preK-12 level, higher education faculty, and support staff at both the preK-12 and higher education levels.

    Data highlights and trends:   

    • In 2023–2024, the national average public school teacher salary rose by 3.8% to $72,030, with a projected 3.0% increase for 2024–2025.
    • Despite these increases, average teacher pay has not kept up with inflation over the last decade, resulting in a 5% decrease in real earnings.
    • The average starting teacher salary was $46,526, marking a 4.4% increase, the largest in 15 years, yet it’s still $3,728 below 2008–2009 levels.
    • 16.6% of U.S. school districts offer starting salaries less than $40,000, a drop of over 10 percentage points from the prior year. However, approximately 69.9% of school districts still pay starting salaries below $50,000. Only 20.7% of school districts offer teacher salaries over $100,000.
    • 87% of teachers expressed concern over low pay, and 40% work extra jobs. Nearly 30% of full-time K-12 support professionals earn under $25,000.
    • Full-time faculty on 9- or 10-month contracts averaged $101,955, a 4.2% increase, yet 6.8% below pre-pandemic levels after adjusting for inflation.
    • Faculty at Historically Black Colleges and Universities earn 75 cents for every dollar non-HBCU educators make.
    • Unionized teachers earn 24% more on average in states with collective bargaining, and education support professionals earn 7% more.
    • Starting salaries and top pay for teachers and support staff are higher in states with bargaining laws compared to those without.

    “As Donald Trump and Elon Musk attempt to take a chainsaw to public education so that billionaires can get another tax cut, our students will pay the price,” added Pringle. “Parents and educators know what works. We need to invest in smaller class sizes, more tools and resources, and build on the progress educators, unions, and state leaders have recently made to increase educator pay. Those pay increases have also been instrumental in addressing and mitigating the educator shortages plaguing our public schools. America’s 50 million public school students deserve strong and well-funded public schools—not the chaos and destruction Trump and Musk are unleashing on their education.”

    For additional information about Rankings and Estimates and related NEA salary data reports, please visit www.nea.org/educatorpay. 

    Follow us on Bluesky at https://bsky.app/profile/neapresident.bsky.social and https://bsky.app/profile/neatoday.bsky.social

    # # #

    The National Education Association is the nation’s largest professional employee organization, representing more than 3 million elementary and secondary teachers, higher education faculty, education support professionals, school administrators, retired educators, students preparing to become teachers, healthcare workers, and public employees. Learn more at www.nea.org.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: NSU scientists talk about astronomical events of May

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Novosibirsk State University – Novosibirsk State University –

    On warm May evenings, observing celestial objects, meteor showers, and even deep space objects will be more comfortable than in the previous cold months. You will be able to see approaches (conjunctions) of the planets of the Solar System with the Moon, the Eta Aquarid meteor shower, the Andromeda Nebula, and the Orion Nebula.

    Lunar eclipse

    In Central Russia, a total lunar eclipse will be visible on the morning of May 5. During these morning hours, the rising Sun may slightly “spoil” the contrast of the event, but it will still be observable. The total lunar eclipse will begin at 5:14 Moscow time and will last until 6:22. The peak of the eclipse: the Moon will turn reddish due to the light reflected from the Sun will be at 5:53. In Novosibirsk, day will break, but opposite the Sun, you will be able to try to see the non-contrasting disk of the light orange Moon. The common name for the full Moon in May is the Flower Moon. It is associated with natural phenomena – the beginning of the flowering of the first spring flowers.

    Conjunctions of the planets of the solar system

    May 2: Neptune will approach bright, easy-to-spot Venus. Time of approach: 17:07 GMT for Novosibirsk 7 hours. Distance at approach: 2°06′.

    On May 3, Mars will be close to the Moon. At this time, if you observe reddish Mars through a telescope, you can see bluish polar caps on it. Time of approach: 23:12 GMT, distance at the moment of approach: 2°06′. This event can be observed until 00:13 GMT on May 4, when the distance at the moment of approach will decrease to 1°59′.

    May 12: Full Moon – Micro Moon; the Moon will appear 5% smaller and 10% dimmer than during a normal full moon.

    On May 14, the nearly full Moon will be near Alpha Scorpius Antares. Time of approach: 04:10 GMT. Distance at approach: 0°18′. Antares is a dimly lit object, so it is best to use binoculars to observe it.

    On May 22, the waning crescent Moon will be near the planet Saturn. Time of approach: 17:51 GMT, distance at approach: 2°30′. Saturn’s rings may not be as bright as at the moments of the planet’s maximum tilt, but they will still be clearly visible in a telescope or binoculars that provide sufficient resolution of closely spaced lines.

    In addition to Saturn, on May 22, the small planet Neptune will be near the crescent Moon. Time of approach: 19:15 GMT. Distance at the time of approach: 1°53′.

    Venus will be near the Moon on May 23. Time of approach: 21:13 GMT. Distance at approach: 3°33′.

    Eta Aquarids Meteor Shower

    May 5-6: The peak of the Eta Aquarid meteor shower, expected activity is up to 50 meteors per hour, but the greater illumination of the Moon on these 2 peak days will somewhat weaken the contrast of the observed meteors. This shower will be observed from April 19 to May 28, which will allow it to be seen on days when the Moon is not in the sky. Location of the radiant: the constellation Aquarius.

    In Russia, the conditions for observing this shower are not very favorable, since its radiant rises at about 3 a.m., when the morning dawn has already begun. Thus, only a small window of relatively dark sky remains for observations from about 3:30 to 4:30 a.m., and the number of meteors is usually no more than a few per hour due to the low altitude of the radiant. However, these meteors are interesting in that they enter the Earth’s atmosphere at a very small angle, so they do not penetrate into the dense layers and can fly a long distance before burning out. Therefore, in early May, the Eta Aquarids at Russian latitudes produce a noticeable number of meteors, which are called grazers (from the English grazer – grazing, slightly touching), they can fly in the outer layers of the atmosphere for quite a long time, several seconds, and from the surface of the Earth this flight can look very impressive – like a meteor flying across the entire sky.

    Andromeda and Orion Nebulae

    On May 27, the Moon will no longer be visible, a new moon will occur, and the illuminated side of the Moon will be facing away from the Earth. This is the best time to observe stars, meteor showers, and deep-sky objects, since the Moon’s light will not illuminate the sky. Some of these objects can be seen in May. This is the bright Andromeda Galaxy (M31) – the closest to our galaxy, it will be visible in our northern hemisphere. It can be observed with the naked eye, but if you also use a telescope, you will be able to distinguish spiral arms and bright centers in this nebula. This nebula is easy to find – it is located halfway between the constellation Cassiopeia (graphically like the letter W) and the constellation Ursa Major.

    The next nebula to observe in May is the Orion Nebula (M42). The constellation Orion is very extended and can be easily found by the line of 3 bright stars – Orion’s Belt. The Orion Nebula is located in Orion’s “sword”. It should be observed in early May, before the nebula goes below the horizon in the late night hours.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Africa: The Internation Monetary Fund (IMF) to Hold the Inaugural Annual Economic Research Conference on Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

    Source: Africa Press Organisation – English (2) – Report:

    WASHINGTON D.C., United States of America, April 28, 2025/APO Group/ —

    Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a statement today:

    “Global shocks are adding to regional factors resulting in exceptionally uncertain economic environment for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies. Conflicts, trade tensions, volatile commodity prices, changing climate conditions, energy transitions, rapid technological advances are altering the economic landscape of the region, posing severe challenges but also presenting opportunities for bold reforms that safeguard macroeconomic stability, build resilience, and raise living standards for all. Economic research is essential to provide reliable analysis and develop workable and innovative policy responses.

    “In this context, we are pleased to announce that the IMF will organize an annual Economic Research Conference on MENA, partnering with leading universities in the region. The aim is to establish a forum for dialogue on pressing economic issues, promote policy-oriented academic research tailored to the needs and unique challenges of the region. It will also provide a platform for the exchange of ideas and insights for academics, researchers, and policymakers in the MENA region and worldwide.

    “The inaugural conference, Steering Macroeconomic and Structural Policies in A Shifting Global Economic Landscape, will be co-organized with Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo and take place in Cairo on May 18-19, 2025. It will feature presentations and panel discussions by leading economists and policymakers. The conference details and agenda are available here.

    “The IMF is a long-standing partner to countries in the MENA region in the quest for more inclusive and resilient growth. The IMF-MENA Annual Research Conference is another step forward to further strengthen that partnership and engagement with the region and its people.” 

    MIL OSI Africa –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The government plans to regulate carbon capture technologies – but who will be the regulating agency?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Barry Barton, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

    The Icelandic company Carbfix has developed a technology to store carbon dioxide. Shutterstock/Oksana Bali

    Newly released documents add more detail to the government’s plans for a regulatory framework to enable carbon capture and storage.

    But they show indecision on two key matters – the legal framework and the agency that would be in charge.

    The plan relates primarily to conventional carbon capture and storage technologies, which remove carbon dioxide from an industrial gas flow and dispose of it deep underground.

    It also covers some methods of carbon dioxide removal, an emerging but as yet commercially untested suite of technologies such as enhanced rock weathering, bio-energy capture and direct air capture.

    The latter technologies are not predicated on fossil fuel consumption and could operate in many different situations.

    Neither kind of carbon removal is a simple answer to the climate challenge and the priority remains on cutting emissions. But we need to have regulatory frameworks in place for both reduction and removal technologies of all kinds, and soon.

    Earning credits from emissions trading

    Both types of technologies will benefit from the government’s decision to allow companies to get credits in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for the disposal of carbon dioxide from any source. Credits will not be tied to any one technology, according to the released policy discussion documents.

    It’s also a positive development that an operator can get credits as a separate removal activity, not merely as a reduction of an existing emissions liability (although official advice was initially against separate credits). This allows for diversity in the players and the systems for removals.

    The government has decided it will assume liability for any carbon dioxide leaks from geological storage, but only after verification that fluids in the subsurface are behaving as expected after closure, and no sooner than 15 years after closure.

    Leaks this long after injection are unlikely, but we nevertheless need strong regulation, financial assurance to guarantee remedial action and clear liability rules.

    Companies will be able to earn credits for the permanent disposal of carbon dioxide.
    Shutterstock/VectorMine

    The government also states ETS credits will only be available for removals that can be recognised internationally against New Zealand’s commitments to cut emissions. This would apply only to geological storage but not deep-ocean deposition or rock weathering.

    But that’s not quite right. The general international rules already allow the inclusion in a national greenhouse gas inventory of removals from any process. Detailed methodologies for carbon dioxide removal are likely to become available within the next few years.

    With change underway, New Zealand’s new regime should allow a wide range of removal methods to receive credits.

    A new regulatory regime

    The documents acknowledge that New Zealand needs a broader regulatory regime, beyond the ETS, to cover the entire process of carbon dioxide removal. The suitability of a disposal site must be verified, a detailed geological characterisation is required and the project design and operation need to be approved.

    Approval is also required for closure and post-closure plans, and systematic monitoring. Monitoring is everything; it must be accurate and verifiable but also cost effective. The operator will have to pay for monitoring for decades after site closure.

    In agreeing on these features, the government is following the examples of many countries overseas, including Australia, Canada, the UK and the EU.

    However, it is intriguing that the government hasn’t decided where this new regime should sit in the statute book, and who should manage it. Much of the apparently relevant text in the documents has been redacted.

    Given that carbon dioxide would be stored underground, the Crown Minerals Act is one possibility. But this legislation is all about extraction, not disposal. Although the New Zealand petroleum and minerals unit at the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment has expertise in regulating subsurface operations, it focuses largely on oil and gas, not on innovative climate projects.

    The Resource Management Act certainly provides a regulatory approval regime, but it is awaiting reform and would need much more than the currently proposed changes to deal with carbon capture and storage or removal properly. So would legislation covering activities within New Zealand’s exclusive economic zone.

    Indeed each act would require a whole new part to be added, with its own principles and procedures. There is a lot to be said for a standalone new act, in a form that would fit with the emerging Natural Environment Act that will replace the Resource Management Act.

    The new legislation and regulation regime could be administered by the Environmental Protection Authority, which is already involved in Resource Management Act call-ins and fast-track approvals, the legislation covering the exclusive economic zone and the ETS.

    One can only guess there might be tensions between contending factions in government. What we should ask for is a legislative and institutional arrangement that allows carbon capture and storage or removal technologies to evolve and grow without being a mere offshoot of the oil and gas industry or any other existing sector.

    As part of our efforts to reduce emissions, we must make sure all kinds of removal technologies are available that truly suit New Zealand.

    Barry Barton is part of the project “Derisking Carbon Dioxide Removal at Megatonne Scale in Aotearoa” which is funded by the MBIE’s Endeavour Fund. In the past, he has received funding from MBIE and the gas industry for research on CCS legal issues.
    He is a director of the Environmental Defence Society.

    – ref. The government plans to regulate carbon capture technologies – but who will be the regulating agency? – https://theconversation.com/the-government-plans-to-regulate-carbon-capture-technologies-but-who-will-be-the-regulating-agency-254696

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Liberal Mark Carney’s projected election win in Canada means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the projected election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election may not only shape Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Liberal Mark Carney’s projected election win in Canada means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-liberal-mark-carneys-projected-election-win-in-canada-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to have lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney is projected to have pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of the election, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to have lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-projected-to-have-lead-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Liberal Mark Carney’s Canadian projected election win means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the projected election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election may not only shape Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Liberal Mark Carney’s Canadian projected election win means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-liberal-mark-carneys-canadian-projected-election-win-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to have lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney is projected to have pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of the election, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Game change Canadian election: Mark Carney projected to have lead Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-projected-to-have-lead-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Liberal Mark Carney’s Canadian election win means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election not only shapes Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Liberal Mark Carney’s Canadian election win means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-liberal-mark-carneys-canadian-election-win-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for April 29, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 29, 2025.

    Why are political parties allowed to send spam texts? And how can we make them stop?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tegan Cohen, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology Ti Wi / Unsplash Another election, another wave of unsolicited political texts. Over this campaign, our digital mailboxes have been stuffed with a slew of political appeals and promises, many from the new party

    The Oscars have rolled out the red carpet for generative AI. And surprisingly, viewers don’t seem to mind
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Crosby, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University The Oscars have entered the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Last week the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences explicitly said, for the first time, films using generative AI tools will not be disqualified from the awards.

    Echidna ancestors lived watery lifestyles like platypuses 100 million years ago – new study
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sue Hand, Professor Emeritus, Palaeontology, UNSW Sydney Mary_May/Shutterstock As the world’s only surviving egg-laying mammals, Australasia’s platypus and four echidna species are among the most extraordinary animals on Earth. They are also very different from each other. The platypus is well adapted for a semi-aquatic lifestyle, spending

    ‘Do something about it before it gets worse’: young people want government action on gambling reform
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Pitt, Senior Research Fellow – Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University David P. Smith/Shutterstock Do something about it before it gets worse. This was a response from a 16-year-old boy in one of our recent studies when asked what he would say to the prime minister

    ‘I’m always afraid for the future of my family’: why it’s too hard for some refugees to reunite with loved ones
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mary Anne Kenny, Associate Professor, School of Law, Murdoch University When refugees flee their home country due to war, violence, conflict or persecution, they are often forced to leave behind their families. For more than 30,000 people who have sought asylum in Australia since arriving more than

    Major survey finds most people use AI regularly at work – but almost half admit to doing so inappropriately
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Gillespie, Professor of Management; Chair in Trust, Melbourne Business School Matheus Bertelli/Pexels Have you ever used ChatGPT to draft a work email? Perhaps to summarise a report, research a topic or analyse data in a spreadsheet? If so, you certainly aren’t alone. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools

    1 billion years ago, a meteorite struck Scotland and influenced life on Earth
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Kirkland, Professor of Geochronology, Curtin University Stoer Head lighthouse, Scotland. William Gale/Shutterstock We’ve discovered that a meteorite struck northwest Scotland 1 billion years ago, 200 million years later than previously thought. Our results are published today in the journal Geology. This impact now aligns with some

    Arsenic is everywhere – but new detection methods could help save lives
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magdalena Wajrak, Senior Lecturer in Chemistry, Edith Cowan University Arsenic is a nasty poison that once reigned as the ultimate weapon of deception. In the 18th century, it was the poison of choice for those wanting to kill their enemies and spouses, favoured for its undetectable nature

    Forming new habits can take longer than you think. Here are 8 tips to help you stick with them
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Singh, Research Fellow, Allied Health & Human Performance, University of South Australia SarahMcEwan/Shutterstock If you’ve ever tried to build a new habit – whether that’s exercising more, eating healthier, or going to bed earlier – you may have heard the popular claim that it only takes

    ‘Complaining is career suicide’: the hidden mental health crisis turning our screen industry upside down
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Hegedus, Associate Professor, Griffith Film School, Griffith University Shutterstock The Australian screen industry is often associated with fun, creativity and perhaps even glamour. But our new Pressure Point Report reveals a more troubling reality: a pervasive mental health crisis, which could see the screen industry lose

    New survey shows business outlook is weakening and uncertainty rising as the trade war bites
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Simon, Adjunct Fellow in Economics, Macquarie University Vivid Brands/Shutterstock Uncertainty is everywhere these days. There is even uncertainty about the uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia, for example, noted in the minutes from its April 1 meeting: The most significant development in the period leading up

    How ICE is becoming a secret police force under the Trump administration
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee Morgenbesser, Associate Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University Secret police are a quintessential feature of authoritarian regimes. From Azerbaijan’s State Security Service to Zimbabwe’s Central Intelligence Organisation, these agencies typically target political opponents and dissidents through covert surveillance, imprisonment and physical violence. In

    Democracy on display or a public eyesore? The case for cracking down on election corflutes
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer in Marketing, Research School of Management, Australian National University In my time researching political advertising, one common communication method that often generates complaints is the proliferation of campaign corflutes. Politicians love them. Not so, many members of the general public. People are so fed

    Here’s how to make your backyard safer and cooler next summer
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pui Kwan Cheung, Research Fellow in Urban Microclimates, The University of Melbourne Varavin88, Shutterstock Our backyards should be safe and inviting spaces all year round, including during the summer months. But the choices we make about garden design and maintenance, such as whether to have artificial turf

    Five ways to make cities more resilient to climate change
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul O’Hare, Lecturer in Human Geography and Urban Development, Manchester Metropolitan University John_T/Shutterstock Climate breakdown poses immense threats to global economies, societies and ecosystems. Adapting to these impacts is urgent. But many cities and countries remain chronically unprepared in what the UN calls an “adaptation gap”. Building

    Politics with Michelle Grattan: pollster Kos Samaras on how voters are leaving the major parties behind
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra As we enter the final days of campaigning, Labor leads with its nose in front on most polls, but the devil is in the detail of particular seats. To help get a read on what the voters are feeling at

    Vanuatu communities growing climate resilience in wake of Cyclone Lola
    Communities in Vanuatu are learning to grow climate resilient crops, 18 months after Cyclone Lola devastated the country. The category 5 storm struck in October 2023, generating wind speeds of up to 215 kmph, which destroyed homes, schools, plantations, and left at least four people dead. It was all the worse for following twin cyclones

    Election Diary: Labor to slash more consultant costs and increase visa charges to pay for fresh election commitments
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The government has dug out last-minute savings of more than A$7 billion, to ensure its election commitments are more than offset in every year of the forward estimates. Its costings, released Monday, include savings of $6.4 billion from further reducing

    Big and small spending included in Labor costings, but off-budget items yet to be revealed
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra The federal budget will be stronger than suggested in last month’s budget, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers who released Labor’s costings on Monday. Many of the policies included in the costings were already detailed in either the 2025 Budget

    How much do election promises cost? And why have we had to wait so long to see the costings?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra With the May 3 federal election less than a week away, voters have only just received Labor’s costings and are yet to hear from the Coalition. At the 2022 election, the costings were not released for nearly two months

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Padilla, Schiff Push Trump Administration to Reconsider Student Visa Revocations

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.)
    Senators to DHS, State Department, ICE: “Students who have entered through our legal immigration system and followed the law remain unsure of what, if any, steps they may take to maintain their status and safeguard themselves from immigration enforcement”
    WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, U.S. Senators Alex Padilla, Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Immigration Subcommittee, and Adam Schiff (both D-Calif.), joined 34 Democrats in pressing the Trump Administration to reconsider recent decisions to revoke student visas. In their letter to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Acting Director Todd Lyons, the Senators urged the Administration to undo unlawful student visa revocations, citing a recent reversal of some student record terminations.
    “We recently learned that your agencies have been revoking student visas and terminating Student Exchange and Visitor Information System (SEVIS) records across the country. These actions to end student status reflected an unannounced change in policy and were inconsistent with existing laws, regulations, policies, and agency guidance governing the maintenance and termination of student status—that is why we welcomed the news late last week that in response to litigation around the country, ICE has reversed these SEVIS terminations,” wrote the Senators. “We now urge you to undo other actions to end student status that are inconsistent with such laws, regulations, and agency guidance and ensure that all future actions to end student status fully comply with the law.”
    The Senators continued by highlighting the lack of reasoning provided in many of these visa revocations after the Office of Student Exchange and Visitor Programs (SEVP) within ICE terminated at least 4,736 student visa holders’ SEVIS records.
    “[S]tudents across the country—who by all accounts appear to have followed all of the applicable laws and agency guidance—have reported visa revocations with no clear explanation as to the basis to terminate status,” continued the Senators. “By DHS’s own admission, the statute and regulations do not provide SEVP the authority to terminate nonimmigrant status by terminating a SEVIS record. Your decision to reverse such terminations is therefore prudent and required by law.”
    The Senators outlined the Trump Administration’s apparent violation of federal law in revoking these visas, emphasizing that the Administration may not have given legally required notice when terminating or revoking some students’ statuses. Many students were not given any information on possible reinstatement after they lost their student status when their SEVIS records were terminated. Some students received emails about their visa revocations along with self-deportation directions without the ability to appeal, and others were only informed that they lost their status after masked federal agents arrested them.
    The Senators concluded by appealing to the Administration to reconsider these visa revocations and warning them to adhere to federal law, before making a series of immigration requests.
    “Students who have entered through our legal immigration system and followed the law remain unsure of what, if any, steps they may take to maintain their status and safeguard themselves from immigration enforcement,” concluded the Senators. “While we are relieved that ICE has reversed these SEVIS terminations, we now urge you to undo other actions to end student status that are inconsistent with such laws, regulations, and agency guidance. Finally, we understand that you are contemplating additional actions to end student status. Any such changes must be consistent with applicable statutes, including requirements for notice with respect to changes that would deprive a student of their status and ability to live and study in the United States and place them at risk of detention.”
    The letter was led by U.S. Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. In addition to Padilla and Schiff, the letter was also signed by Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).
    In 2021, Senator Padilla led a group of 23 Senators in calling on the State Department to address the backlog of visas for international students. Padilla also chaired a hearing entitled “Strengthening our Workforce and Economy through Higher Education and Immigration” in 2022, highlighting the challenges undocumented students and international students face in seeking higher education and obtaining jobs in the United States.
    Full text of the letter is available here and below:
    Dear Secretary Noem, Secretary Rubio, and Acting Director Lyons: We recently learned that your agencies have been revoking student visas and terminating Student Exchange and Visitor Information System (SEVIS) records across the country. These actions to end student status reflected an unannounced change in policy and were inconsistent with existing laws, regulations, policies, and agency guidance governing the maintenance and termination of student status—that is why we welcomed the news late last week that in response to litigation around the country, ICE has reversed these SEVIS terminations. We now urge you to undo other actions to end student status that are inconsistent with such laws, regulations, and agency guidance and ensure that all future actions to end student status fully comply with the law.
    Foreign students must navigate a complicated mix of agencies to maintain their status. Under current regulations and policy, students who enter into the United States on an F-1 student visa or J-1 exchange visitor visa are admitted to the United States for “duration of status.” This essentially means that F-1 and J-1 visa holders may be in good standing as long as they comply with the terms and conditions of their status, even if their visa has expired. Students who enter on an M-1 visa for vocational education are admitted for a fixed time period to complete their course of study. The Office of Student Exchange and Visitor Programs (SEVP), within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), works with universities and program administrators to determine whether F-1 and M-1 students are meeting requirements for their visas and terminate SEVIS records as appropriate under SEVP regulations. The Department of State (DOS) Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs administers the J-1 exchange visitor visa, but their records are maintained by SEVIS. Existing regulations and agency guidance inform students and other visa holders of how they might lose their student status, including that they cannot be convicted of serious crimes, cannot work unless authorized by DHS, and must be completing the education or program related to their visa. However, students across the country—who by all accounts appear to have followed all of the applicable laws and agency guidance—have reported visa revocations with no clear explanation as to the basis to terminate status. SEVP has completed at least 4,736 total terminations of student visa holders’ SEVIS records. By DHS’s own admission, the statute and regulations do not provide SEVP the authority to terminate nonimmigrant status by terminating a SEVIS record. Your decision to reverse such terminations is therefore prudent and required by law.
    Current laws, regulations, and agency guidance also require notice to be provided when a student’s status is being terminated or revoked. Here, it is not clear that students were provided the notice required by law. Many students were notified by universities that they have lost their student status when their SEVIS records have been terminated, without being provided any information about potential reinstatement. Some students received emails that their visas were revoked and were directed to self-deport, with no clear information as to the basis for their revocation or means by which they can appeal the revocation. Some students only learned about losing status when arrested by masked federal agents. These reports suggest that students were not given notice of the termination of their status in a manner consistent with existing laws, regulations, and agency guidance.
    Once a student’s visa is revoked, although their status is not automatically terminated, removal proceedings may be initiated against them, allowing them to be detained at the discretion of DHS. Similarly, when a student’s SEVIS record is terminated, the student is no longer in an authorized period of stay in the United States, and students and their universities cannot regularly maintain student records in SEVIS, as is required to maintain student status. In addition, upon SEVIS record termination, the student must depart the United States or take other action to restore legal status, and DHS “may investigate to confirm the departure of the student.”
    Students who have entered through our legal immigration system and followed the law remain unsure of what, if any, steps they may take to maintain their status and safeguard themselves from immigration enforcement. While we are relieved that ICE has reversed these SEVIS terminations, we now urge you to undo other actions to end student status that are inconsistent with such laws, regulations, and agency guidance. Finally, we understand that you are contemplating additional actions to end student status. Any such changes must be consistent with applicable statutes, including requirements for notice with respect to changes that would deprive a student of their status and ability to live and study in the United States and place them at risk of detention.
    We also request information to better understand how your departments are implementing any new, unannounced policies with respect to identifying students for status revocation. Please provide the following information by May 12, 2025:
    1. Any guidance issued by DOS and/or DHS governing the revocations of nonimmigrant visas, issued from January 20, 2025 to date.
    2. Any guidance issued by DOS and/or DHS governing how nonimmigrants are to be notified of visa revocations, issued from January 20, 2025 to date.
    3. Any guidance issued by DOS and/or DHS governing the terminations of SEVIS records, issued from January 20, 2025 to April 25, 2025.
    4. Any guidance issued by DOS and/or DHS governing how student visa holders are to be notified of SEVIS terminations, issued from January 20, 2025 to April 25, 2025.
    5. Any guidance issued by DOS, DHS, and/or the Department of Justice governing the initiation of removal proceedings or immigration enforcement against student visa holders and other nonimmigrants, issued from January 20, 2025 to date.
    6. Any guidance issued by DOS and/or DHS regarding the use of artificial intelligence to search national databases, criminal records, and social media to identify nonimmigrants for visa revocation or to otherwise end status, issued from January 20, 2025 to date.
    7. The total number of student visas (F-1, M-1, or J-1 visas) that have been revoked since January 20, 2025 to date, disaggregated by:
    a. Student’s country of origin;
    b. Consulate or embassy that issued the visa;
    c. Visa category/Optional Practical Training (OPT);
    d. Date of revocation;
    e. University of study;
    f. Type of degree or field of study;
    g. Notice provided;
    h. Legal basis for revocation;
    i. Any grace period to allow students to make travel or other arrangements; and
    j. Whether the student’s SEVIS record was also terminated.
    8. The total number of SEVIS record terminations that have been issued since January 20, 2025 to April 25, 2025, disaggregated by—
    a. Student’s country of origin;
    b. Visa category/Optional Practical Training (OPT);
    c. Date of revocation;
    d. University of study;
    e. Type of degree or field of study;
    f. Whether the termination was initiated by the university or by DHS;
    g. Basis for termination;
    h. Notice provided;
    i. Any grace period to allow students to make travel or other arrangements; and
    j. Whether the student’s visa was revoked.
    9. The number of student visa holders on F-1, M-1, J-1 nonimmigrant status issued Form I862, Notice to Appear, initiating removal proceedings.
    Thank you for your prompt attention to this critical matter.
    Sincerely,

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of Carney’s victory, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The game change Canadian election: Mark Carney leads Liberals to their fourth consecutive win – https://theconversation.com/the-game-change-canadian-election-mark-carney-leads-liberals-to-their-fourth-consecutive-win-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Canada’s election of Mark Carney’s Liberals means for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katerina Sviderska, PhD Candidate in Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge

    Just months ago, Canada’s Conservatives were leading the polls, surfing the wave of radical right ideas and rhetoric sweeping across the globe. But with the election victory of Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, Canada now stands out as a liberal anchor in a fractured West.

    This election not only shapes Canada’s domestic trajectory, but also carries significant implications for its international partnerships amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

    As some European countries and the United States head towards isolationism, authoritarianism and turn to the East — even flirting with Russia — Canada’s continued Liberal leadership reinforces its position as a key ally for the European Union. Carney’s centrist and pro-EU attitude provides stability and relief for Europeans.

    From defence to trade and climate, Canada and the EU share deep economic and strategic ties. With a Liberal government, these connections will strengthen, offering both sides what they need the most: a reliable, like-minded partner at a time of transatlantic unpredictability.

    What does Carney’s victory mean specifically for the Canada-EU relationship?

    Trade as a strategic anchor

    Carney’s election offers new momentum for Canada-EU collaboration. His “blue liberalism” brings Canada ideologically closer to Europe’s current leadership — from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist France to the Christian Democratic Union-led coalition in Germany — providing fertile ground for pragmatic co-operation.

    Trade remains the foundation of the Canada-EU relationship, and both sides should aim to build on it. At the heart of this partnership is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has increased EU-Canada trade by 65 per cent since 2017.

    European Council President António Costa has called the deal a success story providing clear proof “trade agreements are clearly better than trade tariffs.”

    As the U.S. speeds toward toward economic nationalism, CETA has become more than a commercial agreement — it’s a strategic anchor in the global liberal order. One of the Liberal government’s early priorities is likely to consolidate and strengthen CETA. In doing so, Canada can position itself as an ambitious partner, ready to seize new opportunities as European countries seek to reduce their reliance on the American market.

    Climate and energy: A balanced agenda

    Climate and energy, too, offer new opportunities for co-operation. Both Canada and the EU are navigating the tensions between pursuing ambitious decarbonization goals and managing economic and inflationary pressures. After scrapping Canada’s carbon tax on his first day in office, Carney has already hinted at a more pragmatic environmental stance.

    While pledging to maintain key climate policies — including the emissions cap on oil and gas — Carney’s government may recalibrate Canada’s approach to energy. This would mirror shifts among some European allies’ climate policies.

    This evolving transatlantic consensus — less about abandoning climate goals, more about making them economically viable — paves the way for closer co-operation based on a common goal: bolstering economic competitiveness while maintaining environmental credibility.

    Both Carney and the EU view the investment in new technologies as the path forward.

    As Europe accelerates its green agenda and implements new sustainability rules, only countries with strong environmental standards qualify as long-term partners. Canada, provided it stays the course on climate policies, is well-positioned to be a key partner in Europe’s green transition.

    Transatlantic defence co-operation

    Beyond trade and energy, defence co-operation between Canada and the EU is expected to surge. A key priority for the new Liberal government is to finally reach NATO’s benchmark of spending two per cent of gross domestic product on defence, a longstanding commitment that has eluded previous administrations.



    Read more:
    What does Donald Trump’s NATO posturing mean for Canada?

    This signal of rearmament reflects not only alignment with NATO expectations but also a broader understanding that liberal democracies must be prepared to defend themselves. Nowhere is this more pressing than in Ukraine, the epicentre of Europe’s geopolitical storm.

    Canada has been among the most reliable supporters of Ukraine since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, aligning itself with Europe’s most committed nations — France, Poland, the Baltics and, increasingly, Germany.

    But as threats evolve, the battlefield also extends beyond Ukraine’s frontlines. Hybrid attacks — cyber, disinformation campaigns and foreign interference in democratic processes — now wash up on all shores. Canada’s National Cyber Threat Assessment 2025–26 identifies state-sponsored cyber operations as one of the most serious threats to democratic stability, particularly from Russia and China.



    Read more:
    Foreign interference threats in Canada’s federal election are both old and new

    In strengthening its defence collaboration, Ottawa is hoping to get a seat in the fight against autocracies. The question is no longer whether to engage, but how to lead in this era of layered and compounding threats coming from rivals like Russia and China — and now from the U.S., a historical Canadian ally.

    Under Carney’s leadership, Canada is likely to pursue a pragmatic and globally engaged liberalism definitively aligned with Europe. As Canada and the EU are both looking for reliable allies to weather the storm, this renewed western alliance could solidify around Ottawa and Brussels — anchored in shared democratic values and pragmatic leadership.

    Katerina Sviderska receives funding from Fonds de Recherche du Québec and the Gates Cambridge Foundation.

    Leandre Benoit receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. What Canada’s election of Mark Carney’s Liberals means for Europe – https://theconversation.com/what-canadas-election-of-mark-carneys-liberals-means-for-europe-254775

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The game change Canadian election: Mark Carney’s Liberals win a fourth consecutive election

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fiona MacDonald, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Northern British Columbia

    Canada’s 2025 federal election will be remembered as a game-changer. Liberal Leader Mark Carney pulled off a dramatic reversal of political fortunes after convincing voters he was the best candidate to fight annexation threats from United States President Donald Trump.

    Only four months ago, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had a 25-point lead in public opinion polls and a fairly secure path to victory.

    Yet Poilievre’s lead soon vanished due to shifting voter sentiments defined less by the official campaign period and more by the months that preceded it. Justin Trudeau’s early January resignation announcement and Carney’s confirmation that he was officially in the Liberal leadership race dramatically changed the political landscape.



    Read more:
    After stunning comeback, centre-left Liberals likely to win majority of seats at Canadian election

    Within a matter of weeks, Liberal support surged when Carney became party leader and Trump continued to make threats about Canada becoming a 51st American state — and to levy punishing on-again, off-again tariffs against the country.

    The party went from being 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives to overtaking them, putting the party on track to secure its fourth consecutive victory. A shift described by longtime pollster Frank Graves as “unprecedented.”

    Poilievre’s messaging

    The emerging “Canada strong” and “elbows up” narratives, linked to the widespread anti-Trump sentiment, proved a major advantage for the Liberals, who made the most out of this political gift.

    This shift, alongside Carney’s elimination of the carbon tax, left Poilievre on the back foot as his longstanding messaging on Trudeau and his “axe the tax” slogan became largely irrelevant.



    Read more:
    Who really killed Canada’s carbon tax? Friends and foes alike

    The impact of these shifts in electoral fortunes extended beyond the two main parties. As the election became increasingly a two-party race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the smaller parties struggled for relevance.

    Election campaign polling and early results indicated steep losses for the NDP, with Leader Jagmeet Singh’s own seat in Burnaby, B.C., under threat. This could be due to voters on the left responding to calls to vote strategically to prevent Conservative victories in various ridings.

    The Bloc Québecois also lost ground, as did the Green Party of Canada and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Neither the Greens nor the PPC fielded full slates of candidates or participated in the leaders’ debates and therefore played comparatively limited roles in this election.

    Advance voting in a gendered election

    Another notable feature of this election was the record advance voting turnout, which surged to 7.3 million Canadians, up sharply from 5.8 million in 2021.

    Early voting has now become a central part of party campaign strategy, with campaigns “getting out the vote” at every opportunity, not just on Election Day. This trend raises questions not only about whether overall turnout will rise, but also whether party platforms remain as influential given so many votes were cast before all parties released their platforms.

    While many Canadians take in elections with a focus on party leaders and seat counts, there are other important ways to contemplate election outcomes in terms of inclusion and voice. What does this election tell us about gender and diversity representation in Canada’s Parliament?

    This was a deeply gendered election. The major party leaders are all men, with the exception of Elizabeth May, the Green Party co-leader.

    Preliminary candidate data showed a decrease in the number of women candidates compared to 2021.

    The NDP nominated the highest proportion of women candidates — the majority of its candidates are women — and fielded the most diverse slate of candidates in terms of Indigenous people, Black people, racialized people and LGBTQ+ candidates. But the party’s dramatic losses mean these gains will not translate into more diverse representation in Parliament.

    Furthermore, one of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was to eliminate the sex-balanced cabinet and to reduce the size of the cabinet. He eliminated the Ministry of Women and Gender Equality (WAGE) as well as ministerial portfolios focused on youth, official languages, diversity, inclusion, disability and seniors.

    These decisions reverse previous efforts taken to institutionalize gender and diversity leadership in Canada’s Parliament.

    Party platforms also reflected diverging approaches when it came to women. The Conservative platform only mentioned women four times, and three of those mentions were in the context of opposition to transgender rights.



    Read more:
    Pierre Poilievre’s ‘More Boots, Less Suits’ election strategy held little appeal to women

    The role of young working-class men

    Polling also revealed intersections of generation, gender and class are increasingly relevant. Like the last federal election, young working-class men are increasingly drawn to the Conservatives. This trend appears to be driven less by fiscal conservatism and more by concerns about rapid social change, a trend also observed in the 2024 American presidential election.

    Many of these young men are expressing frustrations over housing affordability and job security, and what they view as the Liberal and NDP’s “woke culture,” which they view as eroding traditional values that have traditionally benefited men. In contrast, Canadian women of all ages continue to favour parties they view as more progressive — the Liberals and the NDP.

    Theoretical explanations for this include young men feeling left behind by the Liberals, while the Conservatives have seemingly figured out a way to connect with them.

    This may reflect campaign rhetoric about returning to traditional expectations and values around gender roles and men’s rights to well-paying jobs, an affordable home and taking care of their families.

    Electoral reform needed?

    In the aftermath of Carney’s victory, there are avenues through which current gaps in representation can be addressed. Organizations like the United Nations’ Inter-parliamentary Union and the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, as well as gender and politics scholarship, propose various reforms to continue to strengthen diversity in Parliament.

    These reforms are understood to be essential for enhancing the legitimacy, responsiveness and effectiveness of Canada’s parliamentary system. Research on gender-and diversity-sensitive parliaments consistently shows that when legislative bodies reflect the diversity of the societies they govern, they are more likely to produce policies that are equitable, inclusive and trusted by the public.

    Overall, this Canadian election was characterized by transformative twists and turns that shed more light on important ongoing questions about representation and the potential need for democratic reform if Canadians want to avoid a two-party system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The game change Canadian election: Mark Carney’s Liberals win a fourth consecutive election – https://theconversation.com/the-game-change-canadian-election-mark-carneys-liberals-win-a-fourth-consecutive-election-253721

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Release: Govt cuts will cost jobs, health, and homes

    Source: New Zealand Labour Party

    Nicola Willis announced that funding for almost every Government department will be frozen in this year’s budget, costing jobs, making access to public services harder, and fuelling an exodus of nurses, teachers, and other public servants.

    “Nicola Willis’s slash-and-burn budget is dangerous and reckless,” Labour finance and economy spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said.

    “This Government is hanging out a very clear sign that there’s no hope here. They may as well book tickets to Australia for nurses, teachers, police officers, and other public servants who are already struggling, and who will now find it untenable to stay in New Zealand.

    “This Government had no problem doling out billions to landlords and the tobacco lobby, but when it comes to what Kiwis care most about—jobs, health, and homes—it’s just one cut after another.

    “But the biggest cuts are to investments in our future. In last year’s budget the Government set aside $1.4 billion from Budget 25 just to keep the lights on in our health system. Today’s announcement leaves nothing for new investments, meaning any so-called ‘new’ spending will be funded by cuts elsewhere.

    “Last year we saw $12 billion in borrowing for tax cuts, First Home Grants scrapped and $1.5 billion cut from public house building and maintenance, while they froze hiring for frontline health roles and thousands of Kiwis lost their jobs. Every dollar they promise now comes at the cost of something else, and Kiwis deserve to know what’s on the chopping block.

    “This is about the Government’s choices. New Zealanders depend on their public services for jobs, good quality healthcare, and access to an affordable home with a good school down the road. Their budget chooses short-term savings at the expense of long-term prosperity, and it’s New Zealanders who will pay the price,” Barbara Edmonds said.

    Stay in the loop by signing up to our mailing list and following us on Facebook, Instagram, and X. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why are political parties allowed to send spam texts? And how can we make them stop?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tegan Cohen, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology

    Ti Wi / Unsplash

    Another election, another wave of unsolicited political texts. Over this campaign, our digital mailboxes have been stuffed with a slew of political appeals and promises, many from the new party Trumpet of Patriots (backed by Clive Palmer, a veteran of the mass text campaign).

    The practice isn’t new, and it’s totally legal under current laws. It’s also non-partisan. Campaigns of all stripes have partaken. Behold, the Liberal Party’s last-minute SMS to voters about asylum seekers before the 2022 federal election, or Labor’s controversial “Mediscare” text before the 2016 poll. Despite multiple cycles of criticism, these tactics remain a persistent feature of Australian election campaigns.

    A recent proposal to update decades-old rules could help change things – if a government would put it into practice.

    What does the law say about political spam?

    Several laws regulate spam and data collection in Australia.

    First, there is the Spam Act. This legislation requires that organisations obtain our consent before sending us marketing emails, SMSs and instant messages. The unsubscribe links you see at the bottom of spam emails? Those are mandated by the Spam Act.

    Second, the Do Not Call Register (DNCR) Act. This Act establishes a “do not call” register, managed by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), which individuals can join to opt out of telemarketing calls.

    Finally, there is the Privacy Act, which governs how organisations collect, use and disclose our personal information. Among other things, the Privacy Act requires that organisations tell us when and why they are collecting our personal information, and the purposes for which they intend to use it. It restricts organisations from re-purposing personal information collected for a particular purpose, unless an exception applies.

    This trio of laws was designed to offer relief from unsolicited, unwanted direct marketing. It does not, however, stop the deluge of political spam at election time due to broad political exemptions sewn into the legislation decades ago.

    The Spam Act and DNCR Act apply to marketing for goods and services but not election policies and promises, while the Privacy Act contains a carve-out for political parties, representatives and their contractors.

    The upshot is that their campaigns are free to spam and target voters at will. Their only obligation is to disclose who authorised the message.

    How do political campaigns get our information?

    Secrecy about the nature and extent of campaign data operations, enabled by the exemptions, makes it difficult to pinpoint precisely where a campaign might have obtained your data from.

    There are, however, a number of ways political campaigns can acquire our information.

    One source is the electoral roll (though not for phone numbers, as the Australian Electoral Commission often points out). Incumbent candidates might build on this with information they obtain through contact with constituents which, thanks to the exemptions, they’re allowed to re-purpose for campaigning at election time.

    Another source is data brokers – firms which harvest, analyse and sell large quantities of data and profiles.

    We know the major parties have long maintained voter databases to support their targeting efforts, which have become increasingly sophisticated over the years.

    Other outfits might take more haphazard approaches – former MP Craig Kelly, for example, claimed to use software to randomly generate numbers for his texting campaign in 2021.

    What can be done?

    Unwanted campaign texts are not only irritating to some. They can be misleading.

    This year, there have been reports of “push polling” texts (pseudo surveys meant to persuade rather than gauge voter options) in the marginal seat of Kooyong. The AEC has warned about misleading postal vote applications being issued by parties via SMS.

    This election campaign has seen a flood of texts from Trumpet of Patriots among others.
    The Conversation, CC BY-SA

    Generative AI is hastening the ability to produce misleading content, cheaply and at scale, which can be quickly pushed out across an array of online social and instant messaging services.

    In short, annoying texts are just one visible symptom of a wider vulnerability created by the political exemptions.

    The basic argument for the political exemptions is to facilitate freedom of political communication, which is protected by the Constitution. As the High Court has said, that freedom is necessary to support informed electoral choice. It does not, however, guarantee speakers a captive audience.

    In 2022, the Attorney-General’s Department proposed narrowing the political exemptions, as part of a suite of updates to the Privacy Act. Per the proposal, parties and representatives would need to be more transparent about their data operations, provide voters with an option to unsubscribe from targeted ads, refrain from targeting voters based on “sensitive information”, and handle data in a “fair and reasonable” manner.

    The changes would be an overdue but welcome step, recognising the essential role of voter privacy in a functioning democratic system.

    Unfortunately, the government has not committed to taking up the proposal.

    A bipartisan lack of support is likely the biggest obstacle, even as the gap created by the political exemptions widens, and its rationale becomes flimsier, with each election cycle.

    Tegan Cohen has received funding from the Australian Research Council (FT210100263). She has volunteered for not-for-profit groups and parties, including the Wilderness Society and the Australian Greens.

    – ref. Why are political parties allowed to send spam texts? And how can we make them stop? – https://theconversation.com/why-are-political-parties-allowed-to-send-spam-texts-and-how-can-we-make-them-stop-255413

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Oscars have rolled out the red carpet for generative AI. And surprisingly, viewers don’t seem to mind

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Crosby, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University

    The Oscars have entered the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Last week the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences explicitly said, for the first time, films using generative AI tools will not be disqualified from the awards.

    It’s a timely decision. As generative AI becomes more integrated into filmmaking, debates over creativity and authorship are intensifying. Writers’ strikes and fears of artistic displacement have dominated recent industry discussions.

    But how do audiences feel about the use of AI in films? Our research suggests they may be more open to it than the industry might expect.

    What the new rules say

    The updated Oscars guidelines make it clear the use of generative AI will neither help, nor hinder, a film’s chances of nomination.

    What matters is the degree to which people remain at the centre of the creative process. While AI tools can be part of the workflow, the judges will scrutinise the standard of human creative authorship in a given work.

    This reflects broader shifts taking place in the film industry. AI tools are now embedded in many stages of production, including for high-profile and award-nominated films.

    At this year’s Oscars, Adrien Brody won best actor for his performance in The Brutalist, which used generative AI to enhance the actor’s Hungarian dialogue. Emilia Pérez – the most nominated film, with 13 nods – also used AI-powered voice cloning in post-production.

    The Oscars update isn’t introducing AI to Hollywood. It’s simply acknowledging the extent to which it is already in use.

    Do audiences mind?

    To understand how audiences respond to AI’s creative role in film, we conducted an experiment testing people’s reactions to AI-generated film ideas.

    For our study, published in the Journal of Cultural Economics, we asked 500 US-based participants to rate AI-generated film “pitches” in terms of their anticipated enjoyment and likelihood of watching the film across different formats (such as cinema, online rental, or streaming).

    Half of the participants were explicitly told the ideas were generated by AI, while the other half were not. Each AI-generated pitch included a synopsis, director, top-billed cast, genre, rating and runtime.

    The results were clear. There was no systematic bias against AI-generated pitches. Ratings of anticipated enjoyment and likelihood of watching the films were broadly similar, regardless of whether the participants knew AI was involved.

    AI-assisted versus AI-produced

    It’s important to note our research focused on audience reactions to ideas – the initial pitch for a film – and not the final product. This distinction matters.

    AI’s role was limited in our experiment. Human directors and cast members were implicitly part of each pitch, and there was no suggestion AI had written the full screenplay or contributed in other ways to the production of the final film.

    As we note in our paper, AI’s limited involvement likely shaped participants’ responses. There was an implicit understanding that human creativity would remain central to the final product.

    This aligns with broader evidence from other creative sectors. In the case of music and visual art, audiences tend to respond less favourably when they believe a work has been fully AI-generated.

    Together, these findings suggest the middle ground may be the best approach. While audiences may be accepting of AI’s contribution to creative tasks such as idea generation, editing, and visual and audio effects, they still value human authorship and authenticity in the final product.

    That is also the balance the Academy Awards seems to be aiming for. The new rules do not disqualify films for using AI. However, they emphasise that awards will go to works where humans remain at the heart of the creative process. For now, audiences appear to be comfortable with that approach, too.

    What it means for the industry

    Generative tools are becoming part of the mainstream production toolkit. And this raises important questions about creative labour, credit and compensation.

    While our research suggests audiences may be open to AI-generated content, this doesn’t mean the industry can move forward without careful deliberation. The question is no longer whether AI will shape the future of film, but how – and who gets to decide the terms.

    If AI is to complement, rather than diminish, the filmmaking process, it will be important to maintain clear standards and ethical guidelines around AI use, as well as a clear role for human authorship.

    This includes transparency around how AI tools are used, and appropriate recognition for creative contributions – including for those whose work has been used to train generative AI systems.

    The real test will be whether the industry can embrace AI without losing sight of the creative values that define it.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Oscars have rolled out the red carpet for generative AI. And surprisingly, viewers don’t seem to mind – https://theconversation.com/the-oscars-have-rolled-out-the-red-carpet-for-generative-ai-and-surprisingly-viewers-dont-seem-to-mind-255120

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Legendary architect’s works on show for Hawke Centre exhibition

    Source:

    29 April 2025

    Architect Guy Maron at UniSA’s City West campus.

    Award winning South Australian architect Guy Maron AM is responsible for some of Adelaide’s most iconic buildings, including UniSA’s original City West campus and the Bicentennial Conservatory in the Adelaide Botanic Garden.

    Yet his body of works also includes significant housing projects, educational facilities and commercial buildings.

    A retrospective exhibition Enduring Rationalism: The Architecture of Guy Maron will be held at The Bob Hawke Prime Ministerial Centre, UniSA, from 30 April to 30 May.

    The exhibition, shown in collaboration with UniSA’s Architecture Museum, will showcase photographs, drawings and writings from Maron’s extensive body of work. This includes prizewinning housing at Clovercrest from 1964 and the modern Australian Automobile Headquarters in Canberra, as well as many of Maron’s innovative competition entries for significant national buildings.

    Maron played a major role in the foundation of UniSA’s City West campus, designed to promote interaction and the flow of ideas and knowledge between students and across disciplines.

    He spent his early years in Sydney where he studied architecture at the University of Sydney before moving to North America where he lived and studied for four years.

    “It’s the desire for any young architect to reach to the top of his profession and as new graduates we were inspired by the pioneers of modern architecture such Walter Gropius, Frank Lloyd Wright, le Corbusier and Mies van der Rohe who were leading the world at the time as hero-architects,” Maron says.

    “Climate had a great deal of influence on me, and it became evident that the concept of shelter was of paramount importance in our environment. My parental home in Batavia (Djakarta) showed an ability to cope with the harshness of the tropical heat and humidity, which was a fortunate influence on me in dealing with the tropical environment where air-conditioning did not exist.

    “This early awakening to the environment was of crucial importance to my realisation of the importance of shelter as a prime determinant of architecture. The concept of functionalism and the acceptance of its importance came naturally to me and was never an issue I took for granted during my studies of architecture.”

    The Bicentennial Conservatory in the Adelaide Botanic Gardens.

    Relocating to Adelaide in 1972, Maron became the principal in the firm Cheesman, Doley, Neighbour and Raffen. His career took off in the late 1980s and he completed his most famous building, the Bicentennial Conservatory in the Adelaide Botanic Gardens in 1989, which went on to win 10 national awards as well as international design awards, including the BHP Architecture of the Decade Award. He also designed the Mount Lofty Lookout in the Adelaide Hills.

    Maron has said his architecture comes from ‘finding rational solutions to intricate problems’ with the credo ‘more for less’ informing his work, something evident across the photographs, drawings, and writings on display in this exhibition.

    He reflects on the world’s expanding population and need for new buildings to accommodate new arrivals.

    “The world is increasing by a net 200,000 new arrivals every day… meaning that we have a need for 50 million new buildings a year to accommodate our new arrivals. That must be achieved by one million registered architects worldwide. This is not possible,” Maron says.

    “In my opinion we are due for another major engineering invention of some kind that will bring about a revolution. An attitudinal change will be required as well so that people can divorce themselves from accepted forms of design and construction and embrace a new world, a world that will build houses and housing on an endless belt as for motor cars today and build hundreds of houses per day.

    “This engineering invention is overdue by a long time now and is urgent. It will be expected to cause the same revolution as reinforced concrete did.”

    Enduring Rationalism: The Architecture of Guy Maron is showing at The Bob Hawke Prime Ministerial Centre’s Kerry Packer Civic Gallery at UniSA, located on Level 3 of the Hawke Building, 55 North Terrace, City West Campus, from 30 April to 30 May, Monday to Friday, 9am to 6pm. Free entry.

    ……………………………………………………

    Media contacts

    Melissa Keogh, Communications Officer, UniSA Media M: +61 403 659 154 E: Melissa.Keogh@unisa.edu.au

    Dr Julie Collins, Director & Curator, Architecture Museum, University of South Australia, P: +61 8 8302 9235 E: Julie.Collins@unisa.edu.au

    MIL OSI News –

  • MIL-OSI China: China, Kenya join hands on path to modernization

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    NAIROBI, April 28 — For centuries, China and Kenya have shared a history of exchanges and cooperation. Last week, their relationship entered a new stage as Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Kenyan President William Ruto in Beijing, agreeing to elevate bilateral ties to a China-Kenya community with a shared future in the new era.

    Xi called on the two sides to enhance regular policy communication, build connectivity at a higher level, promote sustainable trade, explore diversified financial integration, carry forward the friendship forged through generations, and be leaders in advancing high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.

    SKILLS TRAINING

    Linet Wambui Kihoro, a 27-year-old railway safety engineer, works among tracks and equipment at the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway, a flagship project under the Belt and Road Initiative. A graduate of Beijing Jiaotong University, Kihoro now applies her expertise to maintain the daily operation of Kenya’s railways.

    In January 2024, Xi replied to a letter from Kenyan students and alumni of Beijing Jiaotong University, including Kihoro.

    President Xi encouraged the Kenyan students to learn professional knowledge well, continue the traditional friendship and devote themselves to bilateral cooperation, she said.

    “The China-Kenya community with a shared future in the new era is not only a cooperation intention at the governmental level, but is also reflected in various aspects such as people-to-people connectivity, youth exchanges and cultural mutual learning,” she said.

    According to a joint statement released on Thursday, China and Kenya pledged to strengthen cooperation in such areas as industry, agriculture, higher education, vocational education and human resource training.

    An increasing number of young people, like Kihoro, are benefiting from China-Africa cooperation in education and capacity building. From the Mombasa-Nairobi Railway to the Swak Dam, the Nairobi Expressway and the Garissa Solar Power Plant, high-quality Belt and Road projects have not only improved the daily lives of Kenyans but also provided opportunities to learn new skills and knowledge.

    James Karimi Njuguna, a Kenyan engineer, participated in the upgrading of the Olkaria I power plant, Africa’s first geothermal plant, which had been struggling with corroded pipelines and outdated technology. “Chinese companies revitalized the geothermal fields by optimizing turbine structures and well layouts,” Njuguna said. “It was a technological revolution. They modernized the equipment, hired local employees and provided professional training, cultivating a new generation of technical experts in Kenya.”

    A report by the Kenya-China Economic and Trade Association showed that between 2022 and 2023, Chinese enterprises employed more than 60,000 local workers in Kenya, with a localization rate exceeding 90 percent. This not only increased local employment but also contributed to transforming the technological landscape.

    AGRICULTURAL COOPERATION

    In Matangi Tisa Village in Kenya’s Nakuru County, home to Kenya’s first demonstration village for China-Africa agricultural development and poverty reduction, people are busy planting tomatoes with the help of Chinese experts.

    For years, local tomato farming had been plagued by bacterial wilt, but villagers are hopeful of a bountiful harvest this season.

    When the Chinese and Kenyan presidents met during the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held in Beijing last year, Xi said “the two sides should closely synergize the high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with Kenya Vision 2030, build an East African connectivity hub and industrial belt, and strengthen cooperation in such areas as digital economy, new energy, economy, trade, poverty reduction and agriculture development.”

    Among the 10 partnership actions announced by Xi at the 2024 FOCAC Summit is the partnership action for agriculture and livelihoods. Under this initiative, China has committed to building 100,000 mu (about 6,670 hectares) of standardized agricultural demonstration areas, sending 500 agricultural experts, and establishing a China-Africa agricultural science and technology innovation alliance.

    These commitments are injecting fresh momentum into Africa’s efforts toward agricultural modernization and poverty alleviation.

    In a recent interview with Xinhua, President Ruto praised China’s success in lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, calling China’s experience highly relevant for African countries still grappling with poverty. He expressed hope to leverage Chinese expertise to advance Kenya’s agricultural modernization and industrialization.

    In Kenya’s Siaya County, 69-year-old farmer Peter Onyango was watching the clear waters flow through newly dug irrigation channels, eagerly anticipating a good harvest. Built by a Chinese company along the lower reaches of the Nzoia River, this irrigation project, the largest of its kind in Kenya, has significantly boosted local irrigation capacity.

    Officially operational in April, the canal is expected to enhance food security. When visiting the project in January, Ruto said that the new infrastructure would play a major role in advancing Kenya’s economic transformation by boosting agricultural productivity.

    STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC TIES

    Rains in April have breathed new life into the rolling tea plantations of western Kenya. Near the C22 highway built by a Chinese company, several tea processing factories are working at full speed.

    A few years ago, the road was little more than a muddy dirt track, often becoming impassable during the rainy season. “Truck wheels would get stuck, and sometimes water would seep into the tea boxes, ruining the harvest,” recalled driver John Murambi.

    Since the road was upgraded to a paved highway, Murambi can now make multiple deliveries a day, which has greatly increased his income. “We no longer have to worry about tea spoiling on the road,” he said.

    At the nearby Kipkebe Tea Factory, General Manager Silas Njibwakale said that since the completion of the road upgrading, transportation losses have dropped from about a quarter of total production to nearly zero. A once-impassable route has now become a major artery supporting local communities.

    Across Kenya, Chinese-built roads, railways and ports are helping break transportation bottlenecks for key exports like tea, coffee, flowers and avocados, allowing these goods to reach global markets more quickly and reliably.

    Thousands of miles away in Changsha, central China, the permanent exhibition hall of the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo at Gaoqiao Grand Market is bustling with visitors. Launched by President Xi during the 2018 FOCAC Beijing Summit, the expo has become a vital platform showcasing African goods.

    Huang Zinan, who specializes in China-Africa trade, said her company has recently imported a batch of Kenyan avocados and is now negotiating with a local tea brand to feature the fruit as a premium ingredient. Initially focused on Kenyan flowers, she now plans to expand her business to more “African treasures.”

    “Products from Africa are gaining increasing recognition and popularity in China,” Huang said. “I hope to build not just a trade bridge, but also a bridge of culture and friendship across the seas.” Through something as simple as an avocado or a fresh flower, she hopes to tell the story of win-win cooperation between China, Kenya and the wider African continent.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Classrooms under surveillance?

    Source:

    29 April 2025

    International researchers are urging a critical rethink of digital technology in schools, warning that many classroom education tools are collecting student data in ways that could threaten privacy and wellbeing.

    The team*, including experts from the University of South Australia and the London School of Economics and Political Science, say the hidden workings of education technologies make it difficult for schools and teachers to know what happens to the data they collect about children behind the scenes.

    UniSA researcher and contributing author to the new book – Handbook of Children and Screens – Dr Jamie Manolev says the lack of transparency around education technologies (ed-tech) raises concerns.

    “Edtech products have rapidly flooded classrooms worldwide, but this has outpaced regulation and research. As a result, many tools have been adopted without understanding their long-term educational or ethical impacts,” Dr Manolev says.

    “Children shouldn’t just be taught with technologies, but about them, which centres on the knowledge and competencies of each teacher, who should be supported to understand the inner workings of the programs they use.

    “While edtech does present new opportunities for engaging students, supporting personalised learning, improving access, and streamlining school processes, most tools are data-hungry, capturing information during every interaction from lessons and assessments to communication and monitoring.

    “It risks turning students into datapoints, limiting their potential as human beings, and raising concerns about student wellbeing, privacy, and surveillance.

    “Furthermore, while edtech is designed to level the playing field – especially for students in rural or remote areas – barriers like internet access, data bias, and cost can still leave many behind.”

    Platforms like ClassDojo, GoGuardian and Gaggle are used in schools worldwide. However, these technologies often oversimplify student behaviour, reducing it to numerical scores without the necessary context.

    Lead author, LSE’s Dr Velislava Hillman says that teachers need greater support to understand how education technologies work, including how data is collected and used, so they can make informed decisions in the classroom.

    “We need to move beyond the idea that more tech is always better,” Dr Hillman says.

    “The ed-tech sector is extremely fast, making it hard for teachers to keep up. And while teachers may try to engage in ongoing professional development, they need the time and support to be able to do so.

    “Stronger regulation is essential to protect students and ensure that technology supports their learning without compromising their privacy or wellbeing. We must prioritise children’s interests to safeguard their future in a safe and ethical way, in an increasingly digitised school environment.”

    Published in a landmark international volume on childhood studies, the chapter is part of growing calls for reform in how digital tools are used and understood in Australian classrooms.

    *Contributing authors include Dr Velislava Hillman, London School of Economics and Political Science; Dr Jamie Manolev, University of South Australia; Dr Samantha-Kaye Johnston, University of Oxford; Dr Priya C. Kumar, Pennsylvania State University; Dr Florence Martin, North Carolina State University; Assist. Prof Elana Zeide University of Nebraska; Prof Dr Gergana Vladova, Humboldt University of Berlin; and Dr Rina Lai, University of Cambridge.

    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

    UniSA contact for interview (Australia):  Dr Jamie Manolev E: Jamie.Manolev@unisa.edu.au
    LSE contact for interview (UK): Dr Velislava Hillman E: v.hillman@lse.ac.uk
    UniSA Media contact: Annabel Mansfield M: +61 479 182 489 E: Annabel.Mansfield@unisa.edu.au

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    MIL OSI News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Xi urges promoting healthy and orderly development of AI

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BEIJING, April 28 — On the afternoon of April 25, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held its 20th group study session, which focused on strengthening the development and regulation of artificial intelligence (AI). While presiding over the session, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, said in the face of the rapid evolution of new-generation AI technologies, China must fully leverage the strengths of the new system for mobilizing the resources nationwide, achieve self-reliance and strength in this regard, and prioritize practical application so as to promote the healthy and orderly development of AI in the country in a beneficial, safe and fair manner.

    Zheng Nanning, a professor with Xi’an Jiaotong University, made a presentation and put forward suggestions. Members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee listened attentively to the presentation and held discussions.

    After hearing the presentation and discussions, Xi delivered an important speech, emphasizing that AI, as a strategic technology leading the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, is profoundly reshaping people’s work and life. The CPC Central Committee attaches great importance to the development of AI. In recent years, efforts have been made to improve top-level design and strengthen overall planning, achieving systematic and comprehensive advancement of China’s AI capabilities. At the same time, deficiencies and weaknesses exist in areas such as basic theories and core technologies in key fields. Xi stressed the need to face up to the gaps and redouble efforts in order to comprehensively advance technological innovation, industrial development, and application empowerment in AI, improve regulatory systems and mechanisms, and firmly maintain the initiative in AI development and governance.

    Xi stressed that to gain a head start and secure a competitive edge in AI, it is a must to achieve breakthroughs in basic theories, methodologies and tools. He called for concentrated efforts on basic research, integrated endeavors for breakthroughs in core technologies such as high-end chips and basic software, as well as building a basic AI software and hardware system that is autonomous, controllable and functioning collaboratively. By leveraging AI to drive the transformation of scientific research paradigms, we can speed up achieving breakthroughs in scientific and technological innovation in all sectors.

    Xi noted that China has abundant data resources, a complete industrial system, vast application scenarios and huge market potential. He stressed the need to promote the deep integration of AI scientific and technological innovation with industrial innovation, build an enterprise-led synergistic innovation ecosystem that incorporates industries, universities, research institutes and end users, facilitate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and open up new arenas in developing strategic emerging industries and future-oriented industries. He called for coordinated efforts to advance the construction of computing power infrastructure and promote the development, utilization and open sharing of data resources.

    Xi emphasized that strong policy support is essential for the development of AI, a new technology and emerging field. He urged solid efforts to make integrated use of policies concerning intellectual property rights, fiscal and taxation incentives, government procurement, and the opening up of infrastructure, as well as better leverage the role of sci-tech financing. Efforts should be made to promote AI education across all academic stages and enhance public awareness across society to cultivate a steady stream of high-caliber personnel. It is necessary to improve mechanisms for AI research support, career development and talent evaluation, and to create platforms and favorable conditions for all types of talent to fully display their capabilities.

    Xi noted that while AI presents unprecedented development opportunities, it also brings risks and challenges not seen before. He urged efforts to grasp the trends and regularity of AI development, accelerate formulation and improvement of laws and regulations, policies and systems, application norms and ethical guidelines, and establish systems for technical monitoring, early risk warning and emergency response, in a bid to guarantee its safety, reliability and controllability.

    Xi highlighted AI as a global public good capable of benefiting the humanity. He called for extensive international cooperation on AI, as well as endeavors to help the Global South enhance its technological capacity building, and contribute China’s effort in the drive to bridge the global AI divide. He also encouraged efforts to engage all parties for further alignment and coordination of development strategies, governance rules as well as technical standards, and work toward an early formation of a consensus-based framework and standards for global governance.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I’m always afraid for the future of my family’: why it’s too hard for some refugees to reunite with loved ones

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mary Anne Kenny, Associate Professor, School of Law, Murdoch University

    When refugees flee their home country due to war, violence, conflict or persecution, they are often forced to leave behind their families.

    For more than 30,000 people who have sought asylum in Australia since arriving more than a decade ago, that separation has stretched into more than a decade. This group of people – known in policy circles as “the legacy caseload” – need a clear pathway to reunite with family members.

    Refugees separated from family are plagued by guilt and worry for their family members’ safety. This makes it extremely difficult to focus on education, work or getting settled.

    The right to family unity is a basic human right and vital to any humane refugee policy.

    However, tensions arise between refugees’ conceptions of family and the restrictive definitions embedded in Australian law.

    High costs, complex administrative requirements, and lengthy processing times often delay or prevent families from reuniting.

    The legacy caseload: more than a decade in limbo

    The so-called “legacy caseload” refers to approximately 30,000 people who arrived by boat between 2012 and 2014, and who were placed on Temporary Protection Visas.

    For more than a decade, they were denied a pathway to permanency and barred from sponsoring family members to join them in Australia.

    That policy made life so unbearable, more than 6,500 people from this group “chose” to return home despite the risks they face. This raises serious concerns about whether they were genuinely able to make a free choice, or were pushed into returning to danger.

    Since the Albanese government’s 2022 commitment to end temporary protection, almost 20,000 people have been eligible to transition to permanent visas through the Resolution of Status process.

    This is a crucial step. Without a permanent visa, they could not sponsor family members.

    Even with permanency, however, family reunion remains out of reach for many “legacy caseload” refugees. This is due to outdated laws, harsh policies and bureaucratic delays.

    Many of these refugees have not seen their spouses or children since before their arrival. Because they arrived by boat, they are barred from proposing family members through the humanitarian visa program and must use the family migration program.

    That’s significant because the humanitarian program has a much broader definition of “family”, and grants people access to settlement services after they arrive.

    Still unresolved is the fate of some 7,000 people who were refused protection under the flawed fast track system (a now abandoned policy that was supposed to speed up processing but actually introduced delays and unfairness).

    These people urgently need a pathway to permanency.

    Why family reunion remains so difficult

    The main barriers to family reunification for refugees include:

    • high visa fees (partner visa application charges, when they include children, can cost more than A$20,000)
    • strict legal definitions (children over 23 are not classified as “dependents”; a child who was 12 when their parent fled may now be 24 — legally an adult, but still dependent and at risk)
    • barriers to documentation (war and instability can make it difficult or dangerous to obtain documents, such as passports or identity papers)
    • limited access to embassies
    • technical issues with online applications
    • repeated health checks (there is a visa requirement health checks but they are only valid for 12 months, so may need to be repeated if visa processing is delayed)
    • unclear rules around exemptions.

    These uncertainties further delay the process and add emotional and financial strain.

    Calls for reform

    Several organisations, including the Refugee Council of Australia, have called for clear, achievable reforms. These include:

    • introducing visa application charge concessions for refugees
    • allowing people to pay fees in instalments
    • adapting visa processing to reflect realities faced by refugee and humanitarian visa applicants, such as challenges obtaining identity documents
    • establishing a dedicated unit in the Department of Home Affairs for processing visas from refugee families
    • prioritising families where children may “age out”.

    They have also called for changes to the legal definitions of “dependent” and “member of the family unit”. This is to reflect the diverse familial structures in many refugee communities.

    For many refugees, family extends beyond the Western concept of the nuclear family. It may also encompass, for instance, adult daughters and parents (who often play pivotal care-giving roles).

    Another big issue for many refugee families is single young women in Afghanistan being left behind because they have aged out.

    Reuniting families

    Australia can learn from other countries.

    Canada’s refugee sponsorship program actively supports family reunification.

    New Zealand offers a more affordable and flexible system. Their definitions of family are broader and visa fees are lower.

    Without family reunion, a refugee’s safety remains incomplete.

    As one refugee told researchers:

    I’m partly safer [in Australia], but inside I’m not safe […] I’m always afraid for the future of my family.

    Thousands of refugees in Australia are still waiting. Their families remain in danger. The legal and policy tools to fix this already exist. What’s missing, for now, is the political will.

    Reforming Australia’s family reunion system would mean more efficient refugee resettlement and integration, ultimately benefiting broader Australian society.

    Mary Anne Kenny is a member of the Migration Institute of Australia and the Law Council of Australia and an affiliate of the UNSW Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law. She was on the Ministerial Council on Asylum Seekers and Detention (an independent advisory body) between 2012 and 2018.

    – ref. ‘I’m always afraid for the future of my family’: why it’s too hard for some refugees to reunite with loved ones – https://theconversation.com/im-always-afraid-for-the-future-of-my-family-why-its-too-hard-for-some-refugees-to-reunite-with-loved-ones-254710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –