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Category: Education

  • MIL-OSI Global: Net-zero homes are touted as a solution for climate change, but they remain out of reach for most

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi, Visiting Senior Researcher, Smart Structures Research Group, University of British Columbia

    Net-zero homes play an important role in combating climate change. (Shutterstock)

    Net-zero homes use natural energy sources and are designed to use less energy and, as such, are considered important in the fight against climate change. But for the average Canadian, they’re still out of reach.

    Net-zero homes are important for tackling climate change. This includes both net-zero energy (NZE) homes, which produce as much energy as they use each year, and net-zero carbon (NZC) homes, which don’t release any carbon dioxide.

    Released in the summer of 2024, the Canada Green Buildings Strategy outlines a bold vision to transform the country’s building sector, aiming for net-zero emissions and enhanced resilience by 2050. This is a bold step forward, but transforming the sector will require sustained collaboration across all levels of government, industry and communities.

    CTV News covers the federal government’s Green Buildings Strategy.

    Net-zero homes use green energy sources and efficient designs to match the amount of energy they produce with the amount they use. They use strategies like thermal shells that use less energy, high-performance components and the addition of green energy systems.

    Net-zero homes also help Canada reach larger climate goals by reducing the amount of carbon dioxide it releases into the air.

    Purchasing and installing these technologies can be cost-prohibitive, but in the long run, homeowners both save money on power bills and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

    Those who are unable to make changes to their homes can still live in a net-zero way by buying green power or carbon offsets.

    The sustainable housing market

    Net-zero homes are becoming more popular in Canada. To speed up building processes and reduce costs, builders are trying out pre-fabricated and modular building techniques.

    In 2024, the Canadian federal government announced a $600 million package of loans and funding to help make it easier and cheaper to build homes. This funding will support innovative technologies like pre-fabricated and modular construction, robotics, 3D-printing and mass timber to build homes faster and cheaper.



    Read more:
    Canada’s housing crisis: Innovative tech must come with policy reform

    The Net Zero Council of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association has also been important in enhancing standards and practices and promoting novel approaches that cut costs while still being environmentally friendly. In doing so, CHBA drives the adoption of cheaper, environmentally friendly technologies and processes, enhancing industry standards and practices across Canada.

    While CHBA collaborates with government agencies, such as Natural Resources Canada to promote innovation and elevate industry standards. Government programs typically provide funding, technical support and policy guidance, whereas CHBA focuses on training, best practices and market development for its members.

    Government research programs through CanmetENERGY also work to improve technologies and give builders and planners the tools they need.

    There are several reasons that owning a net-zero home has not yet become widespread. These include: high initial costs, limited awareness and education, gaps in policy and regulation and market challenges including difficulties in scaling up and integrating net-zero technologies.

    Future directions

    To make net-zero homes accessible to all Canadians, a multi-faceted approach is required.

    Increased subsidies and incentives and expanding financial support for both builders and buyers can lower barriers to entry. The government of Canada’s 2030 Emission Reduction Plan includes $9.1 billion in new investments over the next eight years — adding to the $17 billion announced in 2021 — to support decarbonization efforts.

    Enhancing public awareness and developing educational campaigns highlighting the cost savings and environmental benefits of net-zero homes are both essential approaches to raising awareness and support.

    Policy reform can accelerate adoption of net-zero homes. Examples include harmonizing building codes and introducing mandatory energy efficiency standards to accelerate adoption.

    Supporting continued research into technical innovation and developing cost-effective materials and renewable energy systems will drive down costs. Investment in modern methods of construction should be prioritized to accelerate the transition toward sustainable and energy-efficient building practices.

    Partnerships between governments, private developers and non-profits can bring together resources and expertise to scale net-zero housing initiatives.

    The Sustainable Finance Action Council recommends steps to mobilize private capital to support decarbonization and climate resilience in the Canadian economy, including in the housing sector.

    Solar panels the roofs of apartment buildings in Munich, Germany.
    (Shutterstock)

    Successful international models

    Several countries have demonstrated how net-zero homes can become a reality through innovative policies, community-driven approaches and public-private partnerships:

    BedZED in the United Kingdom is the country’s first eco-village project. It uses community-focused design and renewables to significantly cut carbon footprints.

    The Passive House standard is a German housing policy that sets a global benchmark for ultra-low energy consumption, emphasizing airtight construction and heat recovery.

    California’s ambitious Zero Net Energy policies help reduce overall carbon footprints by driving cutting-edge home construction practices.

    The Net Zero Energy House (ZEH) Program in Japan encourages advanced insulation, efficient appliances and rooftop solar.

    The Netherlands is a leader in innovative, large-scale retrofitting for net-zero housing, most notably through the Energiesprong program.

    These international models highlight that success lies in integrating strong policy frameworks, advanced technology and collaborative practices. They demonstrate that with the right mix of government support, industry innovation and residents embracing green choices, net-zero living can become more widespread.

    Housing is an important part of how to address climate change. As Canada pushes to make net-zero homes more affordable, each step forward strengthens communities, reduces greenhouse gas emissions and helps homeowners save money.

    Dr Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi has secured funding to develop innovative solutions for housing and climate crises.

    T.Y. Yang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Net-zero homes are touted as a solution for climate change, but they remain out of reach for most – https://theconversation.com/net-zero-homes-are-touted-as-a-solution-for-climate-change-but-they-remain-out-of-reach-for-most-247622

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Answer to a written question – EU funding for schools in Pakistan – E-002969/2024(ASW)

    Source: European Parliament

    In Pakistan, the EU has been supporting education reforms in Balochistan until 2025[1], and in Sindh until 2024[2].

    This EU support extends to the school education departments of the provincial governments, which oversee financing and operations of only the state schools.

    The EU support is focusing on institutional capacity strengthening and school rehabilitation, training of teachers, and learning. It does not directly focus on curriculum related matters such as curriculum review or development.

    To ensure that the EU support does not favour certain religious content, the subjects and content for teachers’ training are selected to remain neutral.

    For example, the teachers’ training support to Balochistan School Education Department covers the following subjects: English, mathematics and science.

    Any actions which aim to reinforce the state capacity of Pakistan to manage education programmes and schools more effectively can be expected to provide Pakistani students with further options to follow state-led education rather than religious-led one. Notably in selected areas of Balochistan,

    EU support also facilitates the provision of formal education to students enrolled in religious seminaries through a fast-track government-recognised primary or elementary certification. This has the potential to ease the transition to state schools for these students.

    There will be no more bilateral projects on primary education in Pakistan under the Multi-Annual Indicative Programme 2021-2027; the focus is on technical and vocational education training.

    The EU scrutinises its projects including those on education via field visits, reporting, results oriented monitoring missions, evaluations and other monitoring mechanisms.

    • [1] ‘Balochistan Education Support Programme II (BES II)’ adopted in 2019 as part of the Annual Action Programme 2019 — C (2019)7736.
    • [2] ‘Development through Enhanced Education Programme’ (DEEP) adopted in 2017 — C (2017)8796.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Economic ‘green shoots’ and lower interest rates disguise worrying trends in NZ’s job market

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, PhD candidate, NZ Policy Research Institute, Auckland University of Technology

    Max Dallocco/Shutterstock

    Despite Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s reassurance that “some green shoots” are starting to show in the economy, including a 50 point cut in the official cash rate expected to be announced later today, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain for many – and grim for some.

    Unemployment reached 5.1% in the final quarter of 2024, the highest level since 2020, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. That translates to a total of 156,000 unemployed individuals.

    At the same time, a 1% decrease in gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2024 puts more pressure on the job market.

    While the unemployment rate may not have reached the levels of past crises – the rate exceeded 6% during the 2008-2009 recession – the devil is in the detail.

    The Stats NZ data show the most affected sectors include male-dominated occupations such as technicians and machinery operators, accounting for 85% of the latest job losses.

    Women have seen smaller declines in employment and a slight increase in transitions to part-time roles. But the shift from full-time to part-time employment, especially among men, suggests the creation of quality full-time jobs will be a challenge.

    Job losses concentrated in male-dominated industries also have broader economic implications. They may signal shifts in household income dynamics, particularly for families that depend on a male breadwinner.

    It could also contribute to rising male underemployment (when a worker’s job doesn’t fully utilise their skills, education or experience) and further disparities in the employment rates of men and women.

    Overall, these trends raise questions about the nature and quality of work now available in the job market, and what strategies the government can respond with.

    A rise in ‘discouraged’ workers

    In the fourth quarter of 2024, the annualised employment rate (representing the proportion of the working-age population employed over a year, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations) was 67.4%, compared with 69% in the same period of the previous year.

    This is the most significant decline since 2009. It reflects job losses and a “discouraged worker” effect.

    Discouraged workers are those who have stopped seeking employment due to a perceived lack of opportunities. Instead of remaining in the labour force, they may rely on savings, family support, welfare, or transition into informal or temporary work.

    According to recent data, the most affected sectors include male-dominated occupations such as technicians and machinery operators.
    Kajohnwit Boonsom/Shutterstock

    A drop in quality work

    The rise in part-time employment, particularly among men, raises concerns about the quality of the labour market. Although employment levels appear stable, the growth of less secure jobs may conceal structural weaknesses.

    In the fourth quarter of 2024, the number in part-time employment reached 585,000, the highest figure since 1986. Over the past year, 36,000 men left full-time jobs, while 9,000 transitioned to part-time work.

    One of the main risks of this trend is that companies may be cutting costs without resorting to mass layoffs, which implies reduced job security for workers. Many of these transitions to part-time employment are not voluntary but rather a sign that the economy is not generating enough stable job opportunities.

    Additionally, part-time jobs often offer lower wages, fewer benefits and fewer opportunities for career advancement.

    This type of employment can contribute to stagnation in skill development and reduce workers’ purchasing power, ultimately affecting consumer spending and overall economic growth.

    There is also a perception of discrimination against part-time workers, with one in three reporting feeling discriminated against in their jobs.

    A year of two halves

    While consumer confidence has been low, recent revisions to economic growth estimates suggest the economy hasn’t been as weak as perceived.

    Current projections are that unemployment may reach a peak between 5.3% and 5.6% in mid-2025 and then trend downwards.

    With inflation now within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range, changes in the official cash rate are needed to contain the damage to a weakened labour market. The central bank is forecast to cut the interest rate by 50-points today.

    The weak growth in the working-age population and a potential decline in labour force participation could limit how high unemployment rises, as fewer people may be actively looking for work. But this does not mean a strong recovery is imminent.

    New Zealand faces a significant but not insurmountable challenge. An unemployment rate of 5.1% should raise a red flag and is devastating for the increasing number of workers who have lost their jobs. But the data also show the increase is part of an anticipated economic cycle.

    What matters is how the government reacts to the increases in unemployment and changes to the job market. A supportive job-creation policy and a coordinated strategy for the most affected sectors will be key in avoiding long-lasting pain in the labour market.

    Cristóbal Castro Barrientos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Economic ‘green shoots’ and lower interest rates disguise worrying trends in NZ’s job market – https://theconversation.com/economic-green-shoots-and-lower-interest-rates-disguise-worrying-trends-in-nzs-job-market-249685

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Here’s why increasing productivity in housing construction is such a tricky problem to solve

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Loosemore, Professor of Construction Management, University of Technology Sydney

    This week, the Productivity Commission released its much-awaited report into productivity growth in Australia’s housing construction sector. It wasn’t a glowing appraisal.

    The commission found physical productivity – the total number of houses built per hour worked – has more than halved over the past 30 years.

    The more nuanced measure of labour productivity – which accounts for improvements in size and quality – has also fallen, by 12%.

    Both measures put home-building productivity well behind the broader economy, something the report’s authors attribute to “decades of poor performance”.

    We’ve known about this problem for a long time. The Productivity Commission’s report is well researched and makes some sensible recommendations.

    Solving the underlying problem will require a coordinated approach between government, home-owners, construction companies and workers.

    Measuring productivity

    Housing can take many forms. However, from a productivity perspective, the process of development is essentially the same.

    In very simple terms it involves:

    • concept and initial design, feasibility, finance and business case development
    • land acquisition and due diligence
    • detailed design, development and building approvals
    • pre-construction planning and working drawings
    • construction project management
    • practical completion, final certificates and settlement, commissioning and handover.

    There are no official estimates of housing construction productivity. So, the Productivity Commission used Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data to create its own new measures to capture productivity across this entire process.

    Falling or flat-lining productivity in this sector is a well-known long-term problem. Under the National Housing Accord, the federal government has committed to building 1.2 million new well-located homes by the end of this decade.

    But in the first three months since the National Housing Accord was launched, only 44,884 homes were built across Australia. That’s about 15,000 fewer than the required quarterly target of 60,000.

    The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council projects that new market housing supply will ultimately come in at about a quarter of a million homes below the accord’s target.

    4 key problems

    The report identified four key factors behind the malaise:

    1. complex, slow approvals, as well as delayed construction certificates and essential infrastructure connections
    2. lack of innovation and slow uptake of digital technologies and modern methods of construction
    3. the dominance of smaller building firms resulting in low economies-of-scale and project management challenges associated with supply chain fragmentation
    4. difficulties attracting and retaining skilled workers resulting in skills and labour shortages.

    The report proposes seven reform directions in response. These centre on speeding up the planning approval process, investing in research and development, and increasing workforce flexibility.

    Fixing things won’t be simple

    The Productivity Commission’s report has brought a welcome focus on planning and approvals as a key element of easing the housing crisis.

    It acknowledges that under-resourcing of agencies involved in the approvals process, such as local governments, has made the problem worse.

    One issue with increasing the number of planning approvals processed is that you then need to have a construction industry that can build fast enough to keep up with them.

    Currently, we don’t. Industry research shows since 2013, the number of workers within Australia’s construction workforce has increased by more than 25%. But they are working 2% fewer hours each year, and achieving an output that’s 25.4% lower.

    Keeping an eye on quality

    Amid any push to speed up approvals, we need to be mindful of the possible risks. Loosening building regulations can increase the risk of quality problems and inappropriate development.

    If widespread across the industry, such problems can cause significant personal and economic harm to households, social and economic costs for society. They can also increase building costs, insurance premiums and strata fees.

    This problem calls for a range of tools to reduce the risk of compromising on quality when regulations are loosened or changed. New South Wales has two key pieces of legislation in place that could act as a model for other states.

    One allows owners to sue if a person who carries out construction work fails to exercise reasonable care. The other allows the Building Commission to investigate building work and require rectification of defects for up to six years.

    NSW also has an independent builder trustworthiness rating scheme. This is known as iCirt and operated by credit rating agency Equifax.

    Innovation isn’t a panacea

    A major feature of the Productivity Commission’s report discusses the housing construction industry’s low innovation culture.

    However, much innovation is hidden from view, since it occurs at the manufacturing stage. And innovation itself is not a panacea.

    While calling for greater innovation seems obvious on the surface, research has shown its ability to increase productivity depends on a wide range of factors and is certainly not guaranteed. It can even increase costs and reduce quality and productivity if not managed effectively.

    More holistic workforce planning

    The report also highlights issues with attracting and retaining a skilled workforce. Issues include low apprenticeship take-up and completion rates, restrictive trade pathways, and large infrastructure projects drawing talent away.

    This raises a bigger issue. Despite workforce planning across the industry by the Construction Industry Training Board the industry still seems to be constantly reacting to a skilled labour shortage rather than planning ahead to predict and prevent one.



    Read more:
    Will new $10,000 apprentice payments help solve job shortages in construction? Not anytime soon

    Martin Loosemore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Here’s why increasing productivity in housing construction is such a tricky problem to solve – https://theconversation.com/heres-why-increasing-productivity-in-housing-construction-is-such-a-tricky-problem-to-solve-250048

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Security: Robert K. Tripp Named Assistant Director of the Human Resources Division

    Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation FBI Crime News (b)

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation has named Robert K. Tripp as the assistant director of the Human Resources Division at FBI Headquarters in Washington, D.C. Mr. Tripp most recently served as the special agent in charge of the San Francisco Field Office.

    Mr. Tripp joined the FBI as an intelligence research specialist in 1998 and worked in the Criminal Investigative Division at Headquarters. He became a special agent in 2003 and was assigned to the St. Louis Field Office to investigate public corruption and white-collar crime.

    In 2006, Mr. Tripp transferred to the Washington Field Office and was detailed to work international mass marketing fraud through the Department of Justice Fraud Section. He was promoted to supervisory special agent in 2012 and worked in the Director’s Research Group at Headquarters, which prepares the director for meetings, conferences, and events.

    Mr. Tripp transferred to the Sacramento Field Office in California in 2014. He first supervised a public corruption and civil rights squad, then a squad responsible for violent crime and violent crimes against children. He was also the supervisor of the Fairfield Resident Agency, a Sacramento satellite office.

    In 2018, Mr. Tripp was promoted to assistant special agent in charge of the Sacramento office, responsible for all investigations of criminal and cyber threats and overseeing the criminal squads in Sacramento’s seven resident agencies. He also served as the acting commander of the newly established Sacramento Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Force.

    Mr. Tripp was promoted to inspector in 2021 and returned to Headquarters. He was promoted to special agent in charge of the San Francisco Field Office in 2022.

    Mr. Tripp earned a bachelor’s degree in history from Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, and a master’s and doctorate in history from Washington University in St. Louis.

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Security: Timothy A. Ferguson Named Assistant Director of the Criminal Justice Information Services Division

    Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation FBI Crime News (b)

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation has named Timothy A. Ferguson as the assistant director of the Criminal Justice Information Services Division in Clarksburg, West Virginia. Mr. Ferguson has served as the acting assistant director of the CJIS Division since April 2024.

    Mr. Ferguson joined the FBI as a special agent in 2002 and was assigned to the Dayton Resident Agency under the Cincinnati Field Office in Ohio, where he primarily worked criminal investigations with the Southern Ohio Safe Streets Task Force. He was promoted to supervisory senior resident agent in 2011.

    In 2015, Mr. Ferguson was promoted to assistant section chief of the Violent Crime and Gang Section in the Criminal Investigative Division at FBI Headquarters in Washington, D.C. He oversaw the division’s Safe Streets and Gang Unit, Violent Crime Unit, and Indian Country Crime Unit.

    Mr. Ferguson moved to the Springfield Field Office in Illinois in 2018 to serve as the assistant special agent in charge of the Criminal Branch. In 2020, he returned to FBI Headquarters as the section chief of the Field Operations Section and the Digital Forensics and Analytics Section in the Operational Technology Division.

    In 2023, Mr. Ferguson was promoted to deputy assistant director of the CJIS Division, responsible for the FBI’s National Threat Operations Center and the National Instant Criminal Background Check System Section.

    During his FBI career, Mr. Ferguson has served as a crisis negotiator, a SWAT Team operator, a medic, an adjunct faculty member, and a Behavioral Analysis Unit coordinator.

    Prior to joining the FBI, Mr. Ferguson served in the U.S. Army. He earned a bachelor’s degree in English from Welsh College in Nashville, Tennessee, and a master’s degree in behavioral science from Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio.

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Ahead of Confirmation Hearing, Warren Lays Out Concerns with Deputy Defense Secretary Nominee Stephen Feinberg

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Massachusetts – Elizabeth Warren
    February 18, 2025
    As former head of private equity firm Cerberus, Feinberg drove Massachusetts’ Steward hospital into the ground, would have significant financial conflicts of interest 
    “Your track record at Cerberus includes mismanagement, profiteering, and little relevant government experience. You have put profits at the center of your work when the Deputy Secretary role requires that you put the Department and its people at the center.” 
    Text of Letter (PDF)
    Washington, D.C. – Ahead of his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC), U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Ranking Member of the SASC Subcommittee on Personnel, wrote to Mr. Stephen Feinberg, nominee for Deputy Secretary of the Department of Defense (DoD), pressing him to explain his “serious conflicts of interest” and his track record of mismanagement. 
    As Deputy Secretary of Defense, Mr. Feinberg will need to be able to manage the building, support the workforce, and “(e)nsure Department-wide capability and resources across all functions to carry out the strategic plan of the DoD in support of national security objectives.” Upon his nomination, President Trump regarded him as “(a)n extremely successful businessman.” However, as the former head of private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, Mr. Feinberg reportedly ran several companies, including Chrysler, into the ground. 
    “I am concerned that your track record as a private equity executive shows you lack the skills and demonstrated experience needed to manage and execute the scale of reforms necessary at the Department of Defense,” wrote Senator Warren. 
    In Massachusetts, residents have had first-hand experience with the damage caused by Cerberus’ private equity model. Cerberus bought into Massachusetts’ Caritas Christi hospital system, in 2010, investing $246 million, rechristening it as Steward, and leaving Dr. Ralph de la Torre in charge as CEO. In 2020, Cerberus began to exit by transferring its ownership stake and then, over a six-year period, straddled Steward with over a billion dollars in liabilities – while Cerberus executives profited handsomely, receiving $800 million in profits. Unable to handle the massive debt load, Steward went bankrupt last year – resulting in the closure of two hospitals in the Commonwealth. 
    Mr. Feinberg is estimated to own about 75% of Cerberus, which holds large investments in companies that do business with DoD. These investments have included everything from a company testing hypersonic missile technology to an open-source internet scrapping company. They have also included companies that have defrauded the U.S. government. DynCorp, a private military contractor Cerberus previously owned, was sued by the Department of Justice for intentionally overcharging the Department of State while doing a contract overseas. The letter finds Cerberus has investments in at least 7 companies that do at least $15.9 billion in business with the DoD.
    “These holdings would pose a conflict of interest between your duty as Deputy Secretary to advance the Department’s national security interests and your personal interest in delivering profits for the defense companies in which you or Cerberus have invested,” said Senator Warren. 
    The Deputy Secretary is supposed to help ensure international law is followed, including protecting civilians from harm. However, the New York Times, found that “(f)our Saudis who participated in the 2018 killing of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi received paramilitary training” from a company owned by Cerberus. 
    “If the Deputy Secretary has shown disregard for those laws, that will undermine the faith in these laws for the entire organization,” wrote Senator Warren. 
    Senator Warren also questioned Mr. Feinberg’s qualifications to manage the Department. Beyond a lengthy business and political relationship with President Trump, Mr. Feinberg lacks military experience to lead the Department. Mr. Feinberg participated in the Army Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC) while studying at Princeton University, but left the program before graduating. 
    “Without Department of Defense knowledge or experience in government leadership, I have doubts about your qualifications and how your past has prepared you to take on a role such as Deputy Secretary of Defense,” concluded Senator Warren. 
    Given Mr. Feinberg’s severe conflicts of interest, record of mismanagement and profiteering, and lack of relevant government experience, Senator Warren asked Mr. Feinberg to respond to questions about several areas of concern with his record, including his experience with private equity, potential ties to human rights violations, history of defrauding the federal government, and vision for managing a key part of the federal workforce by February 24, 2025. 

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: February 18th, 2025 Heinrich, Luján Raise Alarm Over Trump Admin Pushing Illegal Funding Cuts to NIH & Derailing Lifesaving Research

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for New Mexico Martin Heinrich

    New Mexico receives $125 million in NIH funding that supports over 1,400 jobs and generates nearly $290 million in economic activity

    Heinrich and Luján: “The administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly”

    WASHINGTON – U.S. Senators Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), alongside 45 Senate Democrats, sent a letter to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. expressing serious concern over the Trump administration’s recent decisions that threaten to create a serious funding shortfall for research institutions in New Mexico, undermine progress on lifesaving scientific advancements, jeopardize the U.S. economy, and endanger the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers. 

    “As the largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) plays a critical role in sustaining the research infrastructure necessary for scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment, infectious disease prevention, and medical technology innovation, among many others. President Trump has wreaked havoc on the nation’s biomedical research system in recent weeks. In his first several days in office, President Trump imposed a hiring freeze, communications freeze, ban on travel, and cancellation of grant review and advisory panels that are necessary to advance research. While some of these efforts have been reversed, they continue to cause confusion and miscommunication among researchers and recipients of NIH funds,” the senators wrote.

    This month, the NIH announced it would set the maximum reimbursement rate for indirect costs to 15% — creating a serious funding shortfall for research institutions of all types across the country. This move would dismantle the biomedical research system, stifle the development of new cures for diseases, and affect ongoing research important to New Mexicans such as clinical trial research at the University of New Mexico.

    Importantly, this change is not a cost savings. It a cost transfer to organizations that cannot afford to pay the difference. This action by the Trump administration is unlawful — Congress’ bipartisan Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Bill prohibits modifications to NIH’s indirect costs.

    “This change to NIH’s indirect cost rate represents an indiscriminate funding cut that will be nothing short of catastrophic for the lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. The administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly,” the senators wrote.

    The senators point out that, in addition to the stifling impact on discovering new cures and ripping away treatment from those who need it, changes to NIH policy and communications threaten jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. NIH research supported more than 1,400 jobs and spurred nearly $290 million in new economic activity in New Mexico during Fiscal Year 2023.

    “The Trump Administration has left researchers, universities, and health systems with great uncertainty about whether they can continue to support entire research programs and patient clinical trials across the country. Institutions and grantees nationwide are dealing with an unprecedented external communications ‘pause’ enacted by new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the lack of transparency regarding the Administration’s illegal funding freeze, and the uncertainty of how new Executive Orders would be applied to their critical work. These actions resulted in NIH freezing grant reviews and cancelling advisory meetings, delaying critical funding that scientists need to continue advancing new cures and treatments. These disruptions do not just slow research — they cost lives,” the senators continued.

    “Our standing as a world leader in funding and producing new medical and scientific innovations has been put at risk by these recent actions from the Trump Administration. We urge you to stop playing political games with the lifesaving work of the NIH and to allow NIH research to continue uninterrupted,” the senators concluded.

    Last week, a federal judge in Boston temporarily blocked the NIH rate cut and set a hearing for February 21st.

    The letter was led by U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.). Alongside Heinrich and Luján, the letter was signed by U.S. Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Angus King (I-Maine), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).

    The text of the letter is here and below:

    Dear Secretary Kennedy,

    We write to express our serious concern with the Trump Administration’s recent decisions that threaten to undermine the nation’s biomedical research infrastructure and set us back generations. The steps the Trump Administration has taken will create a serious funding shortfall for research institutions nationwide, threaten to undermine progress on lifesaving scientific advancements, could cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars, and threaten the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers. 

    As the largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, NIH plays a critical role in sustaining the research infrastructure necessary for scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment, infectious disease prevention, and medical technology innovation, among many others. President Trump has wreaked havoc on the nation’s biomedical research system in recent weeks. In his first several days in office, President Trump imposed a hiring freeze, communications freeze, ban on travel, and cancellation of grant review and advisory panels that are necessary to advance research. While some of these efforts have been reversed, they continue to cause confusion and miscommunication among researchers and recipients of NIH funds.

    Just last week, NIH announced an illegal plan to cap indirect cost rates that research institutions rely on. In capping indirect cost rates at 15 percent for NIH-funded grants, this policy would cut funding essential for conducting research, such as operating and maintaining laboratories, equipment, and research facilities. This change to NIH’s indirect cost rate represents an indiscriminate funding cut that will be nothing short of catastrophic for the lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. The Administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly.

    These confusing and harmful policy changes threaten patient safety. The strength of the American research enterprise – recognized as the best in the world – is built on Congress’ bipartisan commitment to supporting essential research infrastructure. This funding, which Congress has long appropriated on a bipartisan basis, fuels groundbreaking medical discoveries and cements the United States’ position as the global leader in biomedical research.

    In addition to the stifling impact on discovering new cures and ripping away treatment from those who need it, changes to NIH policy and communications threaten jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with everyone from custodians, to research trainees, to scientists facing potential layoffs. NIH research supported more than 412,000 jobs and fueled nearly $93 billion in new economic activity in Fiscal Year 2023. Every dollar the NIH invests in research generates almost $2.50 in economic activity. These reckless policy changes not only threaten biomedical innovation and research, but also the livelihoods of thousands of workers in every state across the nation.

    The Trump Administration has left researchers, universities, and health systems with great uncertainty about whether they can continue to support entire research programs and patient clinical trials across the country. Institutions and grantees nationwide are dealing with an unprecedented external communications “pause” enacted by new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the lack of transparency regarding the Administration’s illegal funding freeze, and the uncertainty of how new Executive Orders would be applied to their critical work. These actions resulted in NIH freezing grant reviews and cancelling advisory meetings, delaying critical funding that scientists need to continue advancing new cures and treatments. These disruptions do not just slow research – they cost lives.

    The NIH plays a critical role in our nation’s efforts to fund scientific advancements that improve health and save lives. Our standing as a world leader in funding and producing new medical and scientific innovations has been put at risk by these recent actions from the Trump Administration. We urge you to stop playing political games with the lifesaving work of the NIH and to allow NIH research to continue uninterrupted.

    Sincerely,

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Loss of forests brought new birds to NZ during the last Ice Age – we’re witnessing a similar process now

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pascale Lubbe, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Molecular Ecology, University of Otago

    Royal spoonbills are among several new species that have crossed the Tasman and naturalised in New Zealand. JJ Harrison/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    When people arrived on the shores of Aotearoa New Zealand and began to turn the land to their needs, they set in motion great changes.

    The landscape of today bears little resemblance to that of a mere thousand years ago. More than 70% of forest cover has been lost since human arrival. Native bush has been replaced by tussocks, scrublands and, most of all, open agricultural land.

    These changes affected our birdlife dramatically. Some species, like the moa, were simply hunted to extinction. Others fell directly to mammalian predators. Many species were victims of severe habitat destruction. The loss of suitable habitat remains a key conservation challenge to this day.

    However, a changing distribution of plants is not a uniquely modern feature. New Zealand has seen equally radical shifts in habitat before – during the Ice Age, which lasted 2.6 million years and ended about 12,000 years ago.

    This reconstruction shows the extend of glaciers during the height of the last Ice Age some 20,000 years ago.
    Shulmeister et al, 2019, CC BY-SA

    At its height, parts of the country were up to 6°C colder than today, and glacial ice sheets spread wide fingers across the Southern Alps. The dry, cold climate resulted in widespread grass and scrubland. Forest cover became patchy everywhere except for the northern North Island.

    Our new research tracks how bird life responded to these changes – in particular how exotic species took advantage of the shifting landscapes to make New Zealand home.

    Ice Age invaders

    Native birds responded to the Ice Age in a variety of ways. Kiwi populations became so isolated in forest patches they split into new lineages. Several moa species moved across the landscape, following their shifting habitat.

    Some groups adapted, spreading into novel environments. Kea split off from their relatives the kākā, becoming more generalised. This is known as in situ adaptation; an existing group changing its habits or character to deal with new environments.

    But where new ecological opportunities arise, species from elsewhere will also come to take advantage of them. Our research uncovers a pulse of colonisation by exotic bird species that coincides with the reduction of forest cover and the expansion of grasslands at the start of the Ice Age some 2.6 million years ago.

    Many endemic New Zealand birds belong to young lineages that date back to landscape changes during the last Ice Age.
    Wikimedia Commons, Te Papa by Paul Martinson, CC BY-SA

    These species were primarily generalists, able to take advantage of a variety of habitats. But there was also an influx of birds pre-adapted to more open conditions, such as the ancestors of Haast’s eagle, pūtangitangi (paradise shelduck) and pīhoihoi (pipit).

    Where did these “invaders” come from? Principally, from Australia. For millions of years, they have ridden the winds across the Tasman Sea and, occasionally, established breeding colonies on our shores.

    Over a long enough time, those new populations evolved to become distinct, endemic New Zealand species found nowhere else on earth. Pīwakawaka (fantail), ruru (morepork), weweia (dabchick) and kakī (black stilt), to name a few, are all descended from Ice Age Australian ancestors.

    They arrived in a New Zealand characterised by scrub, tussock and grass during cold glacial periods, followed by slowly expanding forests during warmer interglacials.

    History repeats itself

    Today, open vistas once again dominate the landscape. This time they were sculpted by humans rather than a cooling climate. The changing environment means new ecological opportunities – and vacancies – have been left by the great number of species that have gone extinct.

    The open landscapes of today mirror the impacts of the Ice Age. Forest cover is reduced, grass and scrub cover the North and South islands.
    Lubbe et al, 2025, CC BY-SA

    Correspondingly, many new species have naturalised on our shores. Welcome swallows, royal spoonbills, Australian coots, spur winged plovers and white-faced herons started making their home here during the 1930s to 50s.

    Silvereyes have been here longer, first reported during the 1850s, while glossy ibis and barn owl only started breeding here this century. All likely flew across the Tasman to settle here.

    Some arrivals seem to serve as ecological replacements of a kind. The kāhu (swamp harrier) is a stand-in for the now-extinct Eyles’ harrier and Haast’s eagle. The poaka (pied stilt) is a common sight where kakī once dominated. And Australian coots proliferate where New Zealand coots once waded.

    Native habitats for native birds

    These birds are following ancient patterns and processes. Where new opportunities appear, new organisms will rise to fill them. Our highly modified ecosystems are responding in the only way open to them, with exotic species expanding their range to take advantage of empty ecological niches – job vacancies in the ecosystem.

    Indeed, these invasions are likely to become more frequent as species distributions shift in a warming climate. As our native species decline under threats of habitat loss and predation by mammalian pests, they will be ecologically replaced by other species.

    Left to their own devices, Aotearoa’s plants and animals will look different in the future. The unique species that have called these islands home for millions of years will increasingly be replaced by more generalist species from elsewhere.

    The good news is that in predator-free native bush, endemic birds can outcompete introduced species.

    The route to protecting our native species in a fast changing world remains as clear as ever – protect and restore native habitat and eradicate mammalian predators.

    Pascale Lubbe currently receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

    Michael Knapp has received funding from The Royal Society of New Zealand (Rutherford Discovery Fellowship).

    Nic Rawlence receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

    – ref. Loss of forests brought new birds to NZ during the last Ice Age – we’re witnessing a similar process now – https://theconversation.com/loss-of-forests-brought-new-birds-to-nz-during-the-last-ice-age-were-witnessing-a-similar-process-now-248523

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Heinrich, Luján Raise Alarm Over Trump Admin Pushing Illegal Funding Cuts to NIH & Derailing Lifesaving Research

    US Senate News:

    Source: US Senator for New Mexico Ben Ray Luján

    New Mexico receives $125 million in NIH funding that supports over 1,400 jobs and generates nearly $290 million in economic activity

    Heinrich and Luján: “The administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly”

    Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senators Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), alongside 45 Senate Democrats, sent a letter to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. expressing serious concern over the Trump administration’s recent decisions that threaten to create a serious funding shortfall for research institutions in New Mexico, undermine progress on lifesaving scientific advancements, jeopardize the U.S. economy, and endanger the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers. 

    “As the largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) plays a critical role in sustaining the research infrastructure necessary for scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment, infectious disease prevention, and medical technology innovation, among many others. President Trump has wreaked havoc on the nation’s biomedical research system in recent weeks. In his first several days in office, President Trump imposed a hiring freeze, communications freeze, ban on travel, and cancellation of grant review and advisory panels that are necessary to advance research. While some of these efforts have been reversed, they continue to cause confusion and miscommunication among researchers and recipients of NIH funds,” the senators wrote.

    This month, the NIH announced it would set the maximum reimbursement rate for indirect costs to 15% — creating a serious funding shortfall for research institutions of all types across the country. This move would dismantle the biomedical research system, stifle the development of new cures for diseases, and affect ongoing research important to New Mexicans such as clinical trial research at the University of New Mexico.

    Importantly, this change is not a cost savings. It a cost transfer to organizations that cannot afford to pay the difference. This action by the Trump administration is unlawful — Congress’ bipartisan Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Bill prohibits modifications to NIH’s indirect costs.

    “This change to NIH’s indirect cost rate represents an indiscriminate funding cut that will be nothing short of catastrophic for the lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. The administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly,” the senators wrote.

    The senators point out that, in addition to the stifling impact on discovering new cures and ripping away treatment from those who need it, changes to NIH policy and communications threaten jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. NIH research supported more than 1,400 jobs and spurred nearly $290 million in new economic activity in New Mexico during Fiscal Year 2023.

    “The Trump Administration has left researchers, universities, and health systems with great uncertainty about whether they can continue to support entire research programs and patient clinical trials across the country. Institutions and grantees nationwide are dealing with an unprecedented external communications ‘pause’ enacted by new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the lack of transparency regarding the Administration’s illegal funding freeze, and the uncertainty of how new Executive Orders would be applied to their critical work. These actions resulted in NIH freezing grant reviews and cancelling advisory meetings, delaying critical funding that scientists need to continue advancing new cures and treatments. These disruptions do not just slow research — they cost lives,” the senators continued.

    “Our standing as a world leader in funding and producing new medical and scientific innovations has been put at risk by these recent actions from the Trump Administration. We urge you to stop playing political games with the lifesaving work of the NIH and to allow NIH research to continue uninterrupted,” the senators concluded.

    Last week, a federal judge in Boston temporarily blocked the NIH rate cut and set a hearing for February 21st.

    The letter was led by U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.). Alongside Heinrich and Luján, the letter was signed by U.S. Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Angus King (I-Maine), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).

    The text of the letter is here and below:

    Dear Secretary Kennedy,

    We write to express our serious concern with the Trump Administration’s recent decisions that threaten to undermine the nation’s biomedical research infrastructure and set us back generations. The steps the Trump Administration has taken will create a serious funding shortfall for research institutions nationwide, threaten to undermine progress on lifesaving scientific advancements, could cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars, and threaten the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers. 

    As the largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, NIH plays a critical role in sustaining the research infrastructure necessary for scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment, infectious disease prevention, and medical technology innovation, among many others. President Trump has wreaked havoc on the nation’s biomedical research system in recent weeks. In his first several days in office, President Trump imposed a hiring freeze, communications freeze, ban on travel, and cancellation of grant review and advisory panels that are necessary to advance research. While some of these efforts have been reversed, they continue to cause confusion and miscommunication among researchers and recipients of NIH funds.

    Just last week, NIH announced an illegal plan to cap indirect cost rates that research institutions rely on. In capping indirect cost rates at 15 percent for NIH-funded grants, this policy would cut funding essential for conducting research, such as operating and maintaining laboratories, equipment, and research facilities. This change to NIH’s indirect cost rate represents an indiscriminate funding cut that will be nothing short of catastrophic for the lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. The Administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly.

    These confusing and harmful policy changes threaten patient safety. The strength of the American research enterprise – recognized as the best in the world – is built on Congress’ bipartisan commitment to supporting essential research infrastructure. This funding, which Congress has long appropriated on a bipartisan basis, fuels groundbreaking medical discoveries and cements the United States’ position as the global leader in biomedical research.

    In addition to the stifling impact on discovering new cures and ripping away treatment from those who need it, changes to NIH policy and communications threaten jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with everyone from custodians, to research trainees, to scientists facing potential layoffs. NIH research supported more than 412,000 jobs and fueled nearly $93 billion in new economic activity in Fiscal Year 2023. Every dollar the NIH invests in research generates almost $2.50 in economic activity. These reckless policy changes not only threaten biomedical innovation and research, but also the livelihoods of thousands of workers in every state across the nation.

    The Trump Administration has left researchers, universities, and health systems with great uncertainty about whether they can continue to support entire research programs and patient clinical trials across the country. Institutions and grantees nationwide are dealing with an unprecedented external communications “pause” enacted by new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the lack of transparency regarding the Administration’s illegal funding freeze, and the uncertainty of how new Executive Orders would be applied to their critical work. These actions resulted in NIH freezing grant reviews and cancelling advisory meetings, delaying critical funding that scientists need to continue advancing new cures and treatments. These disruptions do not just slow research – they cost lives.

    The NIH plays a critical role in our nation’s efforts to fund scientific advancements that improve health and save lives. Our standing as a world leader in funding and producing new medical and scientific innovations has been put at risk by these recent actions from the Trump Administration. We urge you to stop playing political games with the lifesaving work of the NIH and to allow NIH research to continue uninterrupted.

    Sincerely,

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Barr, Artificial Intelligence: Hypothetical Scenarios for the Future

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have accelerated rapidly over the past few years.1 It is now commonplace to see autonomous vehicles navigating city streets, and generative AI tools are available on phones and other devices wherever we go. AI innovations make headlines and play a big role in financial markets, and generative AI has the potential to change how we think about productivity, labor markets and the macroeconomy.2 Today, I will address that question by outlining two hypothetical scenarios for AI’s impact and the implications for businesses, regulators, and society. I will focus my comments on Generative AI, or GenAI, a subset of AI that has seen significant growth and integration into economic activity in just a few short years.
    GenAI and Its AdoptionCompared to earlier iterations of AI, GenAI is able to generate content, which allows it to significantly enhance productivity across a range of knowledge-based activities and be used by people without coding skills. GenAI will likely become a “general purpose technology,” with widespread adoption, continuous improvement, and productivity enhancements to a wide range of sectors across the economy. We are already seeing GenAI improve the productivity of its own R&D.3 There is widespread enthusiasm for GenAI, and survey evidence shows much faster rates of consumer adoption of GenAI already than were seen for the personal computer or the internet.4 While actual deployment of GenAI is limited to some business functions, and there have been pitfalls along the way, businesses in almost every sector are experimenting with or considering how to make use of the technology.5
    Firms are also exploring Agentic AI—Gen AI systems that not only produce new content, but are also able to proactively pursue goals by generating innovative solutions and acting upon them at speed and scale.6 Imagining Agentic AI’s ultimate application, some speculate that we could experience a “country of geniuses in a data center”—a collective intelligence that surpasses human capabilities in problem-solving and collaboration.7 Some believe Agentic AI has the potential to connect ideas in disparate domains, potentially transforming research and development and society more broadly.8
    Hypothetical Scenarios Considering How GenAI Could EvolveToday, I will outline two hypothetical scenarios for considering how GenAI could evolve.9 In one, we see only incremental adoption that primarily augments what humans do today, but still leads to widespread productivity gains. In the other, we see transformative change where we extend human capabilities with far-reaching consequences. For each scenario, I consider the potential implications for the economy and financial sector.
    Thinking through hypothetical scenarios can help widen our lens to a range of possible outcomes and provide a framework for assessing the balance between benefits and risks. Scenarios are not predictions of the future, but provide a framework for analyzing the factors that could lead to different outcomes. Reality is complex. GenAI adoption rates will vary across industries, leading to diverse impacts on market structures. Elements of both scenarios will likely come to pass, and play out at different rates, which will influence the effects on the economy and society. In the short term, GenAI may be overhyped, while in the long run, it may be underappreciated. And, of course, things might turn out differently from these hypotheticals.
    Hypothetical 1: Incremental Progress with Widespread Productivity GainsFirst, let me begin with the incremental scenario, where GenAI primarily augments work in existing processes and leads to steady and widespread productivity gains, but does not fundamentally unlock new capabilities or transform the economy.
    In this state of the world, GenAI tools enhance efficiency and enable more personalized solutions across industries, in ways that have incremental—but still meaningful—effects on people’s lives. For instance, in customer service, professional writing—but not this speech—and software engineering, GenAI-powered tools are already supporting workers, improving accuracy and speed, and these effects could spread to other sectors.10 In this world, health care sees significant improvements as GenAI reduces administrative burdens, assists with diagnostics, and personalizes treatment plans based on real-time patient data. Medicines and other treatments are developed at a faster pace.11 Education is similarly affected, as GenAI alleviates administrative tasks for teachers, allows lessons to be tailored to individual students, and permits students to learn by doing.12 In manufacturing, GenAI-optimized supply chains anticipate and adjust more quickly to disruptions, and current manufacturing processes are refined through virtual iteration.13 In materials science, GenAI-driven experimentation accelerates the discovery of new materials, leading to advances in everything from construction to electronics.14 Turning to the financial sector, we could see similar productivity gains. Community banks leverage GenAI-powered chatbots to provide customized financial advice rooted in local knowledge, while institutions of all sizes continue to advance use of GenAI for compliance monitoring, fraud detection, risk management, and document analysis.15
    The impact to society would be incrementally positive in this state of the world. Humans would use GenAI as a tool to deliver goods and services that we currently produce in a more efficient way. Productivity would go up. The economy would grow at a faster pace.16
    What does this mean for the labor force? The impact will depend on the industry and the nature of the job. GenAI experiments suggest the technology holds the promise of levelling up skills and bringing productivity of lower-performing workers into line with higher performing workers.17 In other cases, it could augment the highest performers, leaving them more time for creativity or strategic aspects of their roles. Increasing automation for certain tasks may displace some workers, where certain skills can be replicated by GenAI. Historically, as technology has replaced some jobs, it has augmented existing roles or created new ones.18 However, this is not to downplay the individual cost for workers who need to retrain, find other employment, or change careers in response to major changes in labor demand. Society will need to account for these possible effects of AI.
    What does this mean for the economy? As I noted before, the economy should grow, if the incremental productivity gains are widespread. However, in this scenario, it is possible that the expected value creation from GenAI was overhyped, anticipating transformative breakthroughs rather than incremental productivity gains. This could trigger market corrections for the firms that have heavily invested in this technology if reality doesn’t measure up to expectations. While the U.S. economy experienced a surge of productivity growth during the dot.com boom in the late 1990s, it was followed by a wave of bankruptcies, capital overhang, and a cautious business investment climate.19 The effects of the ensuing recession were widespread.
    What does this mean for financial stability and other financial risks? In this incremental scenario, GenAI may magnify both the vulnerabilities and sources of resilience that already exist in the system. Attractive trades become more crowded, but risk managers gain new insights.20 Malicious actors gain new tools, but cyber defenders become better armed. So long as financial regulators, enterprise risk managers, and others charged with managing downside risks prioritize efforts to keep pace with the evolving financial ecosystem, there’s nothing to suggest a wholesale transformation of the balance of risks. Of course, keeping pace will pose challenges, and it’s important that we all focus on the need to meet these risks.
    Hypothetical Scenario 2: Transformative ChangeNow, let’s consider a more dramatic hypothetical scenario, in which GenAI adoption extends beyond improving on what we currently do, and provides new expertise and capabilities that have transformative effects on the economy and society. In this scenario, humans deploy their imagination and creativity—combined with robust investment in research and development—to deploy intelligent GenAI systems to make rapid breakthroughs in, for example, biotechnology, robotics, and energy, fundamentally reshaping existing industries and creating new ones. In this instance, to focus the mind, we can think of GenAI as no longer only a tool for scientists to analyze data—in a sense, it becomes the scientist, directing the research.21
    For instance, let’s say that GenAI applications in health care do not simply improve how we currently deliver care, but also enable therapies that target genetic mutations and cure diseases previously considered incurable.22 Similarly, manufacturing evolves to create GenAI-driven robotic factories, with goods produced with new materials and atomic precision.23 Materials science is transformed through the discovery of programmable materials and self-healing substances, all of which reshape construction, technology, and consumer goods.24 Meanwhile, GenAI optimizes fusion energy research, expediting the shift to sustainable energy sources.25 And GenAI helps to create the next generation of quantum computing.26 In that way, GenAI improves its own energy sources and computing capabilities, enabling it to become a more powerful creative tool.27
    Finance also looks radically different than it does today. Individuals with access to hyper-personalized financial planning and businesses with innovative products and services seamlessly connect with one another through near-frictionless or novel forms of financial intermediation.28 Trading strategies and risk-management practices are boosted by greater GenAI-based analytic tools that have dynamic real-time access to an enormous knowledge base in both the public and private domains.29
    Although this transformative scenario is more speculative and is accompanied by a far greater degree of uncertainty than the first, it is important to consider given the extraordinary opportunities for human advancement and welfare that could arise, even if just one of its transformative components were to come to fruition. We would need to fundamentally reimagine how the economy is structured.
    What are the impacts on the labor force, in a world where GenAI’s capabilities extend beyond what humans can accomplish today? Humans may have a role to manage multi-agent GenAI frameworks, or fill gaps where GenAI solutions remain expensive or inefficient for some applications. But this is a world where some workers may see their current jobs disappearing. It is also a world in which they may see their own work transformed and have many more choices about the work they do. The nature of labor would radically change, and this will require us to have broader conversations about how to organize the economy. These conversations should wrestle with how to navigate major economic shifts in a way that recognizes the impact on the human condition, and the extent to which people derive their communities, friendships, personal sense of meaning and dignity from their work.
    What about the competitive landscape? There is probably a greater likelihood that rewards for businesses would be distributed more unevenly at first, as significant breakthroughs with far-reaching ramifications may benefit a subset of firms and industries and concentrate economic power in firms that control GenAI breakthroughs. If only a handful of firms have the ability to accomplish the incredible things I’ve mentioned above, they may dominate markets and crowd out competitors. To the extent that GenAI becomes broadly effective, widely available, and cheap, these market advantages could lessen over time if the right regulatory environment supports competitive market dynamics.30 But history suggests caution in this regard; a handful of players may dominate.31
    And finally, for finance, we should anticipate fundamental changes in this scenario. When it’s working well, the financial system helps move money and risk through time and space.32 To the extent there are fundamental changes to how the economy is organized, we could need a new set of institutions, markets, and products to facilitate transactions among households, businesses, and GenAI agents.
    What Should We Do?Among the many ways in which we can help to harness the potential benefits of GenAI and minimize its risks, I will highlight only a couple today.
    Financial institutions, and the Federal Reserve System, should consider investing sufficient resources in understanding GenAI technology, incorporating it into their workflows where appropriate, and training staff on how to use the technology responsibly and effectively.33 Meanwhile, the financial regulatory community should approach the changing landscape with agility and flexibility. And beyond the financial sector, collaboration between governments, private industry, and research institutions will be critical to ensure that GenAI systems are not weaponized in catastrophic ways. We should continue to focus on responsible AI research and development and implement safeguards against misuse, including monitoring systems, standards for secure AI system development, and agreement on red lines for acceptable use cases.34 We should be attuned to the impact of GenAI on our economic and political institutions. There’s a risk that it concentrates economic and political power in the hands of the very few and could lead to the gains being realized only by a small group, while the rest are left behind.
    Another thing I want to emphasize is AI governance. I think most would agree that the goal of the technology is to improve the human condition, and to do that, we need to be intentional in advancing that goal. We should make sure that we think about GenAI as enhancing, not replacing, humans, and set up best practices and cultural norms to that end. Every financial institution should recognize the limitations of the technology, explore where and when GenAI belongs in any process, and identify how humans can be best positioned to be in the loop. We should also focus on data quality, and make sure that uses of GenAI do not perpetuate or amplify biases inherent in the data used to train the system or make incorrect inferences to the extent the data is incomplete or nonrepresentative.35 In the realm of regulation, frameworks for understanding model risk may need to be updated to address the complexity and challenges of explaining AI methods and the difficulty of assessing data quality.
    We need to be attuned to the risk in finance. The very attributes that make GenAI attractive—the speed, automaticity, and ability to optimize financial strategies—also present risk.36 When the technology becomes ubiquitous, use of GenAI could lead to herding behavior and the concentration of risk, potentially amplifying market volatility. As GenAI agents will be directed to maximize profit, they may converge on strategies to maximize returns through coordinated market manipulation, potentially fueling asset bubbles and crashes. Speed, automaticity, and ubiquity could generate new risks at wide scale.37
    We also should monitor how introduction of this technology changes the banking landscape. Nonbanks may be more nimble and risk-forward in incorporating GenAI into their operations, which may push intermediation to less-regulated, less transparent corners of the financial sector. In addition, this competitive pressure may push all institutions, including regulated institutions, to take a more aggressive approach to GenAI adoption, heightening the governance, alignment, and financial risks I mentioned before.
    In conclusion, while AI’s impact will vary across industries and the reality is evolving, the scenarios I have outlined today provide a framework to begin thinking about how we should respond to developments in GenAI. However, as I mentioned above, elements of both scenarios will likely be present in the future, and play out at different rates, which will influence the effects on the economy and society. Rapid advances in this technology, such as Agentic AI and advancements in open-source models, underscore just how new this technology is and the importance of understanding what it means for individuals, businesses, and markets. Thank you.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board. Return to text
    2. See, for instance, Lisa D. Cook, “Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity,” (speech at Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, October 1, 2024). Return to text
    3. See Gaurav Sett, “How AI Can Automate AI Research and Development,” RAND Commentary, October 24, 2024. Return to text
    4. See Cory Breaux and Emin Dinlersoz, “How Many U.S. Businesses Use Artificial Intelligence?” (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, November 28, 2023); Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, and David J. Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper No. 32966 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2024, revised February 2025); and Leland Crane, Michael Green, and Paul Soto, “Measuring AI Uptake in the Workplace,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 5, 2025). Return to text
    5. There’s evidence of firms experimenting with these tools and then abandoning them—due to a multitude of reasons. See Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Cathy Buffington, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia S. Foster, Nathan Goldschlag, John C. Haltiwanger, Zachary Kroff, and Keith Savage, “Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 32319 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2024). Return to text
    6. For more on Agentic AI’s uses, advantages, and risks, see Mark Purdy, “What Is Agentic AI, and How Will It Change Work?” Harvard Business Review (December 12, 2024). Return to text
    7. See Dario Amodei, “Machines of Loving Grace,” October 2024, https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace. Return to text
    8. For biology and drug discovery, see Jean-Philippe Vert, “Unlocking the Mysteries of Complex Biological Systems with Agentic AI,” MIT Technology Review (November 13, 2024), https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/11/13/1106750/unlocking-the-mysteries-of-complex-biological-systems-with-agentic-ai; and “Owkin Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase I AI-Optimized Clinical Trial of OKN4395, a First-in-Class EP2/EP4/DP1 Triple Inhibitor for Patients with Solid Tumors,” Business Wire, January 30, 2025, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250130436779/en/Owkin-Announces-First-Patient-Dosed-in-Phase-I-AI-optimized-Clinical-Trial-of-OKN4395-a-First-in-Class-EP2EP4DP1-Triple-Inhibitor-for-Patients-with-Solid-Tumors. Return to text
    9. Others have used other types of scenarios. See Anton Korinek, “The Economics of Transformative AI,” The Reporter (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, December 31, 2024); Iñaki Aldasoro, Leonardo Gambacorta, Anton Korinek, Vatsala Shreeti, and Merlin Stein, “Intelligent Financial System: How AI Is Transforming Finance (PDF),” BIS Working Papers No. 1194 (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, June 2024); and Ethan Mollick, Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI (New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2024). Return to text
    10. For worker productivity gains in customer service, see Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey R. Raymond, “Generative AI at Work,” NBER Working Paper No. 31161 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2023, revised November 2023). For GenAI assisted writing gains, see Shakked Noy and Whitney Zhang, “Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence,” Science, vol. 381, no. 6654 (July 2023): 187–92; Jordan Usdan, Allison Connell Pensky, and Harley Chang, “Generative AI’s Impact on Graduate Student Writing Productivity and Quality,” SSRN (August 29, 2024), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4941022. For software engineering, see Sida Peng, Eirini Kalliamvakou, Peter Cihon, and Mert Demirer, “The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence from GitHub Copilot,” arXiv:2302.06590, February 13, 2023; Leonardo Gambacorta, Han Qiu, Shuo Shan, and Daniel M. Rees, “Generative AI and Labour Productivity: A Field Experiment on Coding (PDF),” BIS Working Papers No. 1208 (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, September 2024); Zheyuan (Kevin) Cui, Mert Demirer, Sonia Jaffe, Leon Musolff, Sida Peng, and Tobias Salz, “The Effects of Generative AI on High-Skilled Work: Evidence from Three Field Experiments with Software Developers,” SSRN (September 5, 2024, revised February 10, 2025), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4945566. For worker gains in the consulting industry, see Fabrizio Dell’Acqua, Edward McFowland III, Ethan Mollick, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Katherine C. Kellogg, Saran Rajendran, Lisa Krayer, François Candelon, and Karim R. Lakhani, “Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality (PDF),” Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 24-013 (September 2023). Return to text
    11. See Ethan Goh, Robert Gallo, Jason Hom, et al., “Large Language Model Influence on Diagnostic Reasoning: A Randomized Clinical Trial,” JAMA Network Open (October 28, 2024), https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2825395; Nikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar, and Tobias Salz, “Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology,” NBER Working Paper No. 31422 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2023, revised March 2024); Ashley Capoot, “Reid Hoffman Enters ‘Wondrous and Terrifying’ World of Health Care with Latest AI Startup,” CNBC, February 2, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/reid-hoffman-launches-manas-ai-a-new-drug-discovery-startup.html; Kang Zhang, Xin Yang, Yifei Wang, Yunfang Yu, Niu Huang, Gen Li, Xiaokun Li, Joseph C. Wu, and Shengyong Yang, “Artificial Intelligence in Drug Development,” Nature Medicine, vol. 31 (January 2025): 45–59, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03434-4; Qian Liao, Yu Zhang, Ying Chu, Yi Ding, Zhen Liu, Xianyi Zhao, Yizheng Wang, Jie Wan, Yijie Ding, Prayag Tiwari, Quan Zou, and Ke Han, “Application of Artificial Intelligence in Drug-Target Interactions Prediction: A Review,” NPJ Biomedical Innovations, vol. 2, no. 1 (January 2025), https://doi.org/10.1038/s44385-024-00003-9. Return to text
    12. For more on education, see Justin Wolfers, “An Econ Educators Guide to our AI-Powered Future,” Macmillan Learning, EconEd (presentation), September 26, 2024, https://www.macmillanlearning.com/college/us/events/econed; and Anne J. Manning, “Professor Tailored AI Tutor to Physics Course. Engagement Doubled,” Harvard Gazette, September 5, 2024. Return to text
    13. See Maxime C. Cohen and Christopher S. Tang, “The Role of AI in Developing Resilient Supply Chains,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs (February 5, 2024); and Remko Van Hoek and Mary Lacity, “How Global Companies Use AI to Prevent Supply Chain Disruptions,” Harvard Business Review, November 21, 2023. Return to text
    14. See Sheldon Fernandez, “How Generative AI Can Be Used in Electronics,” Forbes, April 26, 2023, https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbestechcouncil/2023/04/26/how-generative-ai-can-be-used-in-electronics-manufacturing. Return to text
    15. For U.S. financial institutions, see Elizabeth Judd, “How to Balance Human and Machine While Using Chatbots,” Independent Banker, January 1, 2025; and U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services (PDF)” (Washington: U.S. Department of the Treasury, December 2024). For foreign financial institutions, see Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority, “Artificial Intelligence in UK Financial Services—2024” (London: Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority, November 21, 2024); and Bank of Japan, “Use and Risk Management of Generative AI by Japanese Financial Institutions,” Financial System Report Annex (Tokyo: Bank of Japan, October 29, 2024). For global financial institutions, see OECD, “FSB Roundtable on Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Finance (PDF),” Financial Stability Board, September 30, 2024. Return to text
    16. Lida R. Weinstock and Paul Tierno, “The Macroeconomic Effects of Artificial Intelligence (PDF),” Congressional Research Service, January 28, 2025. Return to text
    17. See Shakked Noy and Whitney Zhang, “Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence,” Science, vol. 381, no. 6654 (July 13, 2023): 187–92; Brynjolfsson et al., “Generative AI at Work” (see footnote 9); and “for software engineering” from footnote 9; Korinek (2024) from footnote 7. Return to text
    18. See David H. Autor, “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 29, no. 3 (Summer 2015): 3–30.See Simona Abis and Laura Veldkamp. Return to text
    19. See Ben S. Bernanke, “Will Business Investment Bounce Back?” (speech at the Forecasters Club, New York, NY, April 24, 2003). Return to text
    20. See Financial Stability Board, The Financial Stability Implications of Artificial Intelligence (Basel, Switzerland: Financial Stability Board, November 14, 2024); and Jon Danielsson and Andreas Uthemann, “How AI Can Undermine Financial Stability,” VoxEU: CEPR, January 22, 2024. Return to text
    21. For some very early examples, see Davide Castelvecchi, “Researchers Built an ‘AI Scientist’—What Can It Do?” Nature, August 30, 2024, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02842-3; Daniil A. Boiko, Robert MacKnight, Ben Kline, and Gabe Gomes, “Autonomous Chemical Research with Large Language Models,” Nature, December 20, 2023, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06792-0; and Helena Kudiabor, “Virtual Lab Powered by ‘AI Scientists’ Super-Charges Biomedical Research,” Nature, December 4, 2024, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-01684-3. Return to text
    22. For more on drug discovery and gene therapy, see Betty Zou, “Team Uses AI and Quantum Computing to Target ‘Undruggable’ Cancer Protein,” Phys Org, January 27, 2025; and Mohammad Ghazi Vakili et al., “Quantum-Computing-Enhanced Algorithm Unveils Potential KRAS Inhibitors,” Nature Biotechnology, January 22, 2025, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-024-02526-3. Return to text
    23. See NASA Technology Transfer Program, “Robonaut 2: Hazardous Environments (MSC-TOPS-44)”. Return to text
    24. For more on material sciences innovation, see Andy Extance, “First GPT-4-Powered AI Lab Assistant Independently Directs Key Organic Reactions,” Chemistry World, January 8, 2024, https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/first-gpt-4-powered-ai-lab-assistant-independently-directs-key-organic-reactions/4018723.article; Chenyang Liu, Xi Zhang, Jiahui Chang, You Lyu, Jianan Zhao, and Song Qiu, “Programmable Mechanical Metamaterials: Basic Concepts, Types, Construction Strategies—A Review,” Frontiers, vol. 11 (March 19, 2024); Aidan Toner-Rodgers, “Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product Innovation,” MIT, November 27, 2024, https://aidantr.github.io/files/AI_innovation.pdf; and Thomas Hayes et al., “Simulating 500 Million Years of Evolution with a Language Model,” Science, January 16, 2025. Return to text
    25. See Tan Sui, “AI Could Help Overcome the Hurdles to Making Nuclear Fusion a Practical Energy Source,” The Conversation, January 29, 2025, https://theconversation.com/ai-could-help-overcome-the-hurdles-to-making-nuclear-fusion-a-practical-energy-source-247608; Jaemin Seo, SangKyeun Kim, Azarakhsh Jalalvand, Rory Conlin, Andrew Rothstein, Joseph Abbate, Keith Erickson, Josiah Wai, Ricardo Shousha, and Egemen Kolemen, “Avoiding Fusion Plasma Tearing Instability with Deep Reinforcement Learning,” Nature, vol. 626, February 21, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07024-9; and Massimiliano Lupo Pasini, German Samolyuk, Markus Eisenbach, Jong Youl Choi, Junqi Yin, and Ying Yang, “First-Principles Data for Solid Solution Niobium-Tantalum-Vanadium Alloys with Body-Centered-Cubic Structures,” Nature: Scientific Data, vol. 11, no. 907 (August 22, 2024), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03720-3. Return to text
    26. Nakia Melecio, “Exploring the Synergy: Quantum Computing and Generative AI at the Intersection of Innovation,” ScaleUp Lab Program, Enterprise Innovation Institute, Georgia Tech. Return to text
    27. For an example on GenAI and quantum computers, see Rahul Rao, “Quantum Computers Can Now Run Powerful AI That Works like the Brain,” Scientific American, April 22, 2024, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/quantum-computers-can-run-powerful-ai-that-works-like-the-brain. For an example about AI and clean energy, see Office of Policy, “How AI Can Help Clean Energy Meet Growing Electricity Demand” (Washington: U.S. Department of Energy, August 16, 2024). For examples of how GenAI is augmenting creativity, see Tojin T. Eapen, Daniel J. Finkenstadt, Josh Folk, and Lokesh Venkataswamy, “How Generative AI Can Augment Human Creativity,” Harvard Business Review (July–August 2023); and Anil R. Doshi and Oliver P. Hauser, “Generative AI Enhances Individual Creativity but Reduces the Collective Diversity of Novel Content,” Science Advances, vol. 10, no. 28 (July 12, 2024). Return to text
    28. See Iñaki Aldasoro, Leonardo Gambacorta, Anton Korinek, Vatsala Shreeti, and Merlin Stein, “Intelligent Financial System: How AI Is Transforming Finance (PDF),” BIS Working Papers No. 1194 (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, June 2024); and Sarah Hammer, “From Turing to Trading: How AI Is Revolutionizing Finance,” Finance Centers at the Wharton School, July 10, 2024. Return to text
    29. Large language models may even allow for the creation of synthetic data that allows for enhancing macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting through economic AI agents that can also help with analyzing macroeconomic trends and contribute to more informed financial decisionmaking. See Anne Lundgaard Hansen, John J. Horton, Sophia Kazinnik, Daniela Puzzello, and Ali Zarifhonarvar, “Simulating the Survey of Professional Forecasters,” SSRN (December 1, 2024), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5066286. Return to text
    30. Kelly Ng, Brandon Drenon, Tom Gerken, and Marc Cieslak, “DeepSeek: The Chinese AI App That Has the World Talking,” BBC News, February 4, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv5976z9po. Return to text
    31. For example, see IBM Newsroom, “Data Suggests Growth in Enterprise Adoption of AI Is Due to Widespread Deployment by Early Adopters, But Barriers Keep 40% in the Exploration and Experimentation Phases,” IBM, January 10, 2024, https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-01-10-Data-Suggests-Growth-in-Enterprise-Adoption-of-AI-is-Due-to-Widespread-Deployment-by-Early-Adopters; and Jefferies Editorial Team, “Can Startups Outsmart Big Tech in the AI Race?” Jefferies, September 17, 2024, https://www.jefferies.com/insights/boardroom-intelligence/can-startups-outsmart-big-tech-in-the-ai-race. Return to text
    32. If AI agents proliferate in financial transactions, we will also need to be careful about the potential for unintended consequences such as collusion among AI agents. See Winston Wei Dou, Itay Goldstein, and Yan Ji, “AI-Powered Trading, Algorithmic Collusion, and Price Efficiency,” Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper, The Wharton School Research Paper, May 30, 2024, https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4452704. Return to text
    33. See Request for Information on the Development of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Plan, 90 Fed. Reg. 9,088 (PDF) (February 6, 2025). Return to text
    34. See Heather Domin, “AI Governance Trends: How Regulation, Collaboration, and Skills Demand Are Shaping the Industry,” World Economic Forum, September 5, 2024. Return to text
    35. For more on bias introduced in models, see Moshe Glickman and Tali Sharot, “How Human–AI Feedback Loops Alter Human Perceptual, Emotional, and Social Judgements,” Nature Human Behavior, December 18, 2024, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-02077-2; Saul Asiel Flores, “‘Bias in, Bias out’: Tackling Bias in Medical Artificial Intelligence,” Yale School of Medicine, November 18, 2024; and Adam Zewe, “Researchers Reduce Bias in AI Models While Preserving or Improving Accuracy,” MIT News, December 11, 2024. For governance in central banks, see Claudia Alvarez Toca and Alexandre Tombini, Governance of AI Adoption in Central Banks (PDF) (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, January 2025). Return to text
    36. See, e.g., Michael P. Wellman, “Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services (PDF)” (written testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, September 20, 2023). Return to text
    37. See Jon Danielsson and Andreas Uthemann, “AI Financial Crises,” VoxEU: CEPR, July 26, 2024. For more on algorithm collusion, see Wei Dou et al., “AI-Powered Trading, Algorithmic Collusion, and Price Efficiency” (see footnote 33). Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The German election explained through seven essential questions

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gabriele Abels, Jean Monnet Professor for Comparative Politics & European Integration, University of Tübingen

    Germany is holding a federal election on February 23 – a snap vote called by chancellor Olaf Scholz when his coalition government fell apart at the end of last year. Parties are running to win seats in the national parliament, or Bundestag. And with an unusual level of interest from onlookers outside the country, including the world’s richest man, The Conversation asked Gabriele Abels, the Jean Monnet professor for comparative politics and European integration at the University of Tübingen, to prime us on the basics, via seven essential questions.

    1. Who are the main parties running in this election?

    The parties standing in the federal election are, from left to right on the political spectrum: Linke (the Left), SPD (social democrats), Greens, FPD (liberals), CDU/CSU (conservatives), AfD (right-wing extremist/populist).

    There is also the Buednis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), but this party is not so easy to fit into the left-right spectrum. The BSW holds leftist positions on social policy issues but is also anti-migration and opposed to sanctions against Russia and against military support for Ukraine.

    2. When will we know the results?

    It will take several days after February 23 to confirm the final results of the election.

    Based on the exit polls we will have fairly reliable results that evening but there may still be some uncertainty. It depends on how many people vote by post (a trend which is on the rise) and on how the smaller parties fare.

    There are three such parties – Linke, FDP and BSW – hovering around a 5% vote-share in pre-election polls. This is the threshold for qualifying for any seats in parliament at all, so whether or not the three make it past 5% will have quite an effect on the overall composition of the Bundestag and the distribution of seats among the parties in parliament.

    There is an additional rule: parties winning at least three districts (basic mandate clause) qualify for the Bundestag and will get seats according to their share of party votes. The Linke is investing its hopes in this option.

    3. Who is most likely to become chancellor?

    According to all opinion polls, the conservatives (CDU/CSU) will win the election and become the biggest party in government. This means that their lead candidate Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor.

    4. Will one party run the government?

    No party will have enough seats to form a government alone, given that the German system makes it extremely difficult to do so, by design. A coalition needs to be formed comprising parties that together hold more than 50% of the seats in the Bundestag.



    Read more:
    AfD: how Germany’s constitution was designed with the threat of extremism in mind

    Even when we have the full results, forming a new government will, most likely, take some time. Talks between parties will start immediately after the election, but it might take several months to put a government together. It depends on the numbers at play and the political arithmetic – essentially the extent to which different combinations of parties agree or disagree on various policy positions.

    During a period in the 1950s, when Konrad Adenauer was chancellor, there was an option to have a single-party government. But even he preferred a coalition. Other than that, there has always been the need to form a coalition after an election.

    Unlike the Nordic countries, we in Germany do not have a tradition of minority governments since they are considered to be too weak and unstable. Germans prefer governments which are backed by a clear majority in the Bundestag.

    5. Why does Germany have a system that makes coalitions the norm?

    It is partly political culture to prefer stable majorities and emphasise compromise. But the proportional voting system and increased political fracturing also play a part in delivering many different parties into the Bundestag.

    Until the early 1980s there were usually three parties (conservative, social democrats and liberals). Today, we have seven parties in the Bundestag. Proportional voting gives new parties more possibilities to win seats, while the 5% threshold is a barrier against excessive fragmentation.

    6. We hear a lot about the AfD – but will it be in government?

    No – at least, not this time. There is what we call a brandmauer (firewall), meaning that, so far, none of the other parties is willing to form a government with the AfD. The most likely partner would be the conservatives. Yet, their lead candidate Merz is very outspoken that cooperation with the AfD would mean selling out the conservative soul. Given that the AfD is becoming more and more radical, this is not likely to change in the near future.

    However, there is already a level of cooperation between the AfD and other parties at the local level and even in some state parliaments, especially in East German Länder (states). Often, new patterns of coalition formation are tried out in Länder parliaments and later serve as models for the federal level. The AfD is hoping this will be the case for them.

    7. How important is this election in historical context?

    I would not call this election historic on the scale of the one that just took place in the US. But this election is nevertheless important – and is perceived as important by voters in terms of the future of Germany and its economy.

    Migration and the economy are the top issues and there is a strong sense of frustration as well as a growing distrust in politics. The majority of voters are happy about the snap election given that the coalition led by Olaf Scholz was no longer efficient and there was constant in-fighting.

    However, given that this election has been called at short notice, it’s not clear that turnout will match the current strength of feeling. There has not been much time to register for a postal vote and parties have had only a brief campaign window to win over voters. Which of them will be able to mobilise their voters and also non-voters (recently between 25% and 30% of the electorate will be a crucial deciding factor. Lately the AfD has been successful in terms of mobilising non-voters and also at mobilising young voters. That said, older voters make up the majority, so a lot hangs in the balance.

    Gabriele Abels does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The German election explained through seven essential questions – https://theconversation.com/the-german-election-explained-through-seven-essential-questions-247945

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what it means for the climate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kshitij Sabnis, Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, Queen Mary University of London

    The US aerospace company Boom Supersonic recently announced it has successfully tested its latest aircraft, the XB-1. The company is developing a larger plane and aims to begin passenger flights at supersonic (faster than sound) speed within the next five years, and claims it already has orders from a handful of airlines.

    However, with ever-increasing scrutiny on the environmental consequences of flying, it is important to consider how supersonic aviation may affect the industry’s ability to meet its ambitious net zero by 2050 target.

    The latest test flight represents an important stage in the development of supersonic aircraft that minimise their characteristic “sonic boom” – the considerable noise generated as the shock waves travelling along with a supersonic aircraft pass over people on the ground.

    Boom Supersonic has carefully designing the aircraft shape to reduce this noise pollution. It did this by exploiting a phenomenon known as “Mach cutoff”, where air temperatures in the atmosphere cause shock waves to reflect upwards rather than towards the ground.

    Supersonic aircraft won’t receive certification to fly over land if they are too noisy, and overland flights are essential for their commercial viability. Indeed, failing to receive such certification limited Concorde’s routes to London-New York and Paris-New York, ultimately contributing to its demise. These recent noise improvements pave the way for Boom Supersonic to progress its larger 80-seat supersonic airliner, Overture. If all goes to plan, Overture will cruise at 1.7 times the speed of sound and could fly from London to New York in just 3.5 hours.

    Other organisations working on supersonic flight are making similar progress. US firm Spike Aerospace is developing a smaller business jet, for instance, while Nasa and defence and aerospace firm Lockheed Martin plan to begin test flying their supersonic X-59 later this year. There is every indication that planes like these are on their way back, more than two decades after Concorde last took to the skies.

    Concorde’s maiden flight back in 1969. It flew commercially between 1976 and 2003.
    Andre Cros / wiki, CC BY-SA

    Shock waves increase aerodynamic drag

    The key to understanding the environmental effects of supersonic aircraft is that, whenever its speed exceeds the speed of sound, shock waves form around the aircraft. These shock waves significantly increase the aerodynamic drag, and so more fuel needs to be burned to compensate for the drag force. Indeed, it is estimated that up to ten times more fuel needs to be burned by a supersonic aircraft compared to the equivalent subsonic airplane for every passenger mile.

    At supersonic speeds, sound itself is a drag.
    Chabacano / wiki, CC BY-SA

    The cost of this extra fuel is why typical aircraft speeds have remained pretty constant at around 85% of the speed of sound for several decades. It also leads to greater greenhouse gas emissions – as much as five to seven times more than subsonic aircraft.

    In fact, the situation may be even more stark. Supersonic aircraft tend to fly at high altitudes (Concorde flew at 60,000ft (18km) rather than the 40,000ft (12km) typical for most passenger jets) to take advantage of lower turbulence levels. This means their emissions tend to remain in the atmosphere for longer.

    Supersonic and sustainable?

    There are considerable efforts to align supersonic aircraft development with the aviation industry’s environmental ambitions. For instance, the new engines designed by Boom Supersonic are powered entirely by “sustainable aviation fuels” (Saf) which are direct replacements for traditional jet fuels that are made from renewable raw materials, often used cooking oil or crop residues. Due to its exclusive use of Saf, the Overture is advertised as having a zero-carbon footprint.

    A concept image of the Overture, the plane Boom Supersonic ultimately wants to build.
    Boom Supersonic, CC BY-SA

    In reality, the situation is more complex. Saf is often produced from edible crops and has been linked to deforestation – the total land required to power all of commercial aviation in this way is impractically immense.

    To address this longer-term problem, it is necessary to look towards alternative fuel sources. While hydrogen or electric power is being developed for regular aircraft, for now they aren’t developed enough to ensure a plane reaches supersonic speeds. Instead, one possibility is e-kerosene, a synthetic fuel generated from hydrogen and carbon dioxide using renewable electricity.

    Despite all these technological advances, a supersonic aircraft still cannot beat physics. Shock waves, and their associated drag, will still exist. So, a single supersonic aircraft will still produce considerably more carbon emissions than its subsonic counterpart.

    Beyond carbon emissions, contrails also have an effect. These are thin clouds of water vapour produced by aircraft exhausts, which can trap heat in the atmosphere the same way as greenhouse gases. These contrails are thought to have twice the impact of carbon emissions, or perhaps even more, so it is essential to take their effects into account. For now, we simply don’t know enough about contrails, especially at much higher altitudes, to definitively say how supersonic aircraft will affect the environment.

    Given the costs involved, supersonic aircraft will account for only a very small percentage of aircraft worldwide. The overall impact on the environment, in comparison to the tens of thousands of subsonic aircraft currently in operation, will be moderate.

    There is perhaps one environmental upside. The research and development activity making supersonic aviation more environmentally friendly (such as developments in fuel and propulsion technology) will likely yield technologies that transfer to subsonic aircraft too. This should help to address the much broader problem of environmental damage caused by the aviation industry as a whole.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Kshitij Sabnis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what it means for the climate – https://theconversation.com/supersonic-passenger-aircraft-may-be-returning-heres-what-it-means-for-the-climate-250116

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Minimum alcohol pricing: what we found in Wales after five years

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Katy Holloway, Professor of Criminology, University of South Wales

    Almost five years ago, a new law came into force in Wales making it illegal to sell alcohol for less than 50p per unit.

    Since its introduction, we have been evaluating the effects of minimum alcohol pricing and our findings have recently been published. These will help Welsh Government ministers decide on the future of the policy beyond its six-year trial period.

    The price of many alcoholic drinks in Welsh shops increased in March 2020. Most noticeably, large three litre bottles of strong white cider (containing 22 units of alcohol) rose from less than £5 to £11.

    The price of some beers, wines and spirits also increased, though to a lesser extent. In pubs, clubs and restaurants, the introduction of minimum pricing for alcohol made little difference, as prices were already well above the 50p per unit threshold.

    The main goal of the Public Health (Minimum Price for Alcohol) (Wales) Act 2018 is to reduce alcohol-related harm and protect the health of those regularly drinking more than the recommended 14 units per week.

    Contrary to popular belief, minimum pricing for alcohol is not a tax. This means that any extra money from higher prices goes to the retailers and producers, not to the Welsh government.

    While many people enjoy drinking alcohol without any problem, some patterns of alcohol use are associated with significant physical, mental and social harms. It costs UK society more than £27 billion a year through a combination of health, crime, workplace and social welfare costs.

    Research has shown that making alcohol less affordable can reduce consumption and hence related harms. The World Health Organization considers minimum pricing one of its “best buys” for tackling harmful alcohol use.

    While minimum alcohol pricing is in place in several countries, policies differ. In 2018, Scotland became the first country to introduce a national minimum price for all types of alcohol. Two years later, Wales followed suit.

    The Republic of Ireland introduced minimum pricing in January 2022, while Northern Ireland has been engaged in consultation on the policy for several years. There are no plans for the introduction of minimum pricing for alcohol in England.

    The policy was introduced in Wales primarily to protect hazardous and harmful drinkers, who tend to consume more low-cost, high-strength alcohol. But evaluating its effect has been complex, especially due to the COVID pandemic, which disrupted drinking habits and the availability of alcohol. Other economic factors, including the cost of living crisis, have also influenced affordability.

    What we found

    Many of the findings within the 11 reports from our Welsh evaluation have strong resonance with those elsewhere, particularly those of the final Scottish evaluation.

    Drawing from our research, we have five important findings. First, implementation in Wales has been smooth. Retailers have largely complied with the law, and enforcement has been effective.

    Second, certain cheap alcohol products have disappeared. Large bottles of strong cider, for example, are now rare. There have also been shifts in promotions and product availability.

    Third, there are indications that overall alcohol consumption in Wales has declined. While it is difficult to measure directly, purchasing data suggests a reduction.

    Fourth, concerns about unintended consequences have not materialised significantly. Predictions of a rise in home brewing, substance switching, shoplifting and cross-border purchasing have not been widely observed. While some people living near the border have bought alcohol in England, this appears to be opportunistic rather than nationwide.

    Finally, some drinkers have changed their purchasing habits. A minority have switched from cider to wine or spirits as price differences narrowed. Others, particularly those on low incomes, experienced further struggles in financially maintaining their drinking habits.

    Our recommendations

    Minimum pricing for alcohol is well supported by evidence. It is not without its critics, especially those citing continued trends in actual numbers of alcohol-related deaths. Its implementation in Wales has noticeable effects, most of which are positive.

    Based on our findings, we recommend that the Welsh Government retains minimum alcohol pricing. But we also recognise the need for some adjustments.



    Read more:
    Alcohol prescribing for severe withdrawal – what the research shows

    The 50p per unit price, set over a decade ago, should be reviewed. Our evidence suggests an increase in price is needed to maintain the policy’s effectiveness. We believe the policy needs to be accompanied by well-funded treatment and support services for people experiencing alcohol-related difficulties.

    Policymakers must also acknowledge the disproportionate effect of minimum alcohol pricing on those with the lowest incomes. But this should not be a reason to abandon it. We do not advocate for making unhealthy foods cheaper to tackle food poverty. The same principle applies to alcohol policy.

    Minimum alcohol pricing targets affordability rather than addressing all aspects of alcohol harm. It is not a silver bullet, and so should only be one component of comprehensive strategy delivery. If combined with other policy measures and social support, it has the potential to significantly contribute to reductions in alcohol-related harm in Wales.

    Katy Holloway currently receives funding from Health Care Research Wales and Welsh Government. She has previously received funding from a wide range of organisations including NIHR, Home Office, and Ministry of Justice.

    Wulf Livingston receives funding from Welsh and Scottish Governments, World Health Organisation, National Institute for Health Research, Health Boards, alcohol and drug commissioning partnerships and third sector charities. He has previously recieved funding from many of the aforementioned, and in addition ERSC, Local Authorities, Pocklington Trust, Alcohol research UK and Welsh Universities WIN Fund.

    – ref. Minimum alcohol pricing: what we found in Wales after five years – https://theconversation.com/minimum-alcohol-pricing-what-we-found-in-wales-after-five-years-248189

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cottontail review: how a man’s journey through grief mirrors our search for peace – by an expert in death and grieving

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chao Fang, Lecturer in Sociology, Deputy Director of the Centre for Ageing and the Life Course, University of Liverpool

    Cottontail (コットンテール), a newly released Japanese film, tells the touching and relatable story of Kenzaburo (Ken), a man in his late middle age grieving the loss of his wife, Akiko, after a long illness. To honour her dying wish, he embarks on a journey to take her ashes to the Lake District in northern England – a place deeply meaningful to her.

    It was not just the beauty of the landscape that drew her, but also its connection to Peter Rabbit, a character she had loved since childhood and where she had made cherished memories with her parents.

    What begins as a cross-continental trip with his son and family soon unfolds into a deeply personal and solitary quest for Ken. As a husband and father, he struggles to connect with his son, confronting the unspoken emotional walls that make expressing grief so profoundly challenging. Through this journey, Ken seeks not just peace for his loss but also a way to reconcile the past with the present.

    I found Cottontail a beautifully delicate film with a thought-provoking narrative. As an expert in ageing, death and dying, particularly in Japan, I also found its depiction of grief realistic.

    Like Ken, many of us may feel disbelief or denial when facing loss. Memories of our loved ones can wash over us in overwhelming waves, catching us off guard in the most unexpected moments. Whether it’s a familiar scene that evokes a flood of emotions, a conversation with a friend, or even a fleeting dream, the smallest reminders – both joyful and painful – can surface at any time.

    The root of these challenges lies in navigating a world that no longer includes our loved one. Psychiatrist Colin Parkes described bereavement as a psychosocial transition, a profound shift requiring adaptation to a new reality.

    Grief, he suggested, emerges from the breakdown of the world we take for granted, the beliefs and expectations we hold about the future and our plans. When loss occurs, this framework collapses, forcing us to relearn how to live in a world forever changed.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Yet, grief is not simply about building a new life without the person we’ve lost.

    Over a century ago, the founder of psychoanalysis Sigmund Freud emphasised the importance of gradually detaching from the pain of loss and redirecting our emotional energy toward new relationships and pursuits. Today, in a society that often prioritises efficiency and productivity, there’s an unspoken expectation to “complete” the process of grief and quickly return to “normal”.

    But grief resists such timelines. As I’ve argued elsewhere, healing is not about moving on but learning to carry loss forward.

    This is poignantly illustrated in Cottontail: for Ken, scattering Akiko’s ashes in England is not about leaving her or the life they shared behind, but about learning to live with loss, weaving memories of her into his ongoing life.

    Cottontail trailer.

    Rewriting the book of life

    To grieve is like rewriting the book of our lives – a painstaking process of revisiting, revising, and reimagining a narrative that once felt complete. The concept of “narrative identity” captures this: not erasing the past but weaving it into a new story that continues to unfold, where love and loss coexist, shaping who we are now and who we will become.

    Rewriting life after loss is never a solitary journey – it’s shared with others. Ken’s grief is intertwined with his strained bond with his son, Toshi.

    Preoccupied with work, Ken had neglected their relationship, leaving Toshi yearning for deeper connection. Now, drowning in grief, Ken faces the challenge of reconciling his own pain while rebuilding their bond – a dilemma familiar to many experiencing loss.

    A key theme in Ken’s grief journey is the “stiff upper lip” mentality – an emotional restraint that stops him from expressing feelings or accepting support from his son. This stoic attitude, common among older men but seen across genders, ages and cultures, often comes at the cost of hidden stress.

    My research with bereaved older adults shows that suppressing emotions isolates individuals and blocks external support, making healing and connection harder.

    On his journey, Ken meets a grieving father and daughter who openly acknowledge their emotions and support each other. Their willingness to express their feelings shows the power of emotional literacy – the ability to recognise and communicate emotions.

    This highlights the importance of grief literacy not just for individuals, but for wider social networks. When people can understand and support one another’s grief, finding peace with loss becomes more attainable, and the process of rewriting life after loss becomes a collective endeavour.

    The film concludes with Ken chasing a rabbit by Lake Windermere for his granddaughter, joined by Toshi’s family. For Ken, the rabbit is not just Cottontail or a memory of Akiko – it’s a symbol of hope, a reminder that moving forward is possible, with renewed bonds and an enduring love.

    Chao Fang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cottontail review: how a man’s journey through grief mirrors our search for peace – by an expert in death and grieving – https://theconversation.com/cottontail-review-how-a-mans-journey-through-grief-mirrors-our-search-for-peace-by-an-expert-in-death-and-grieving-250198

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Shein could be a shot in the arm for the London Stock Exchange – but the fashion giant might not like the added scrutiny

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Isaac T. Tabner, Senior Lecturer in Finance, Director of the MSc Finance, University of Stirling

    T. Schneider/Shutterstock

    Fast fashion giant Shein’s mooted flotation on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) could be larger than any stock exchange listing seen in Europe in the last year. Coming at a time when the LSE is struggling to attract new listings, with some firms migrating to other exchanges, this could be a welcome boost. So it is perhaps unsurprising that the Chinese-founded company has been courted by the UK government, the LSE and those whose role it is to champion the City of London.

    Yet there are ongoing concerns about the controversial business model and practices of Shein, whose founder Chris Xu relocated himself and the company’s headquarters to Singapore in 2022. These were exacerbated when Shein’s lawyer struggled to tell the UK’s business and trade parliamentary committee whether the company uses cotton from China.

    Campaign group Stop Uyghur Genocide recently said it will seek a judicial review if the UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), approves the LSE listing. And a “Say No to Shein” campaign has nearly 50,000 signatures on the activist website 38 Degrees. (Shein says it strictly prohibits forced labour in its supply chain globally.)

    More idealistic observers might question whether it is really a good idea for the UK to be courting such a controversial listing. The UK, after all, is a second-choice destination after Shein’s ambition to list on the US market failed – amid concerns about forced labour, among other things.

    So what are the claims against Shein? On environmental, social and governance (ESG) grounds the firm is controversial. Although Shein says it is working hard to reduce its environmental impact, its business model – supplying items cheap enough to be discarded after a single use – is at odds with a more sustainable society and thus problematic for the “E” in ESG.

    Some people add an additional “E” (for ethics) to the acronym. Concerns raised about the human and employee rights of workers in Shein’s supply chain and Shein’s reluctance to talk about them, even to a parliamentary committee, highlight both the “social” and the “ethical”. For its part, the company said last year it was actively working to improve its suppliers’ practices.

    If less than 10% of Shein’s equity is floated, which is the what company is proposing, it will still be controlled by its founders and majority shareholders as if it had remained a fully private company. An LSE listing would normally compel Shein to either comply with the UK corporate governance code, or explain why it did not. But dispersed minority investors with a combined ownership of less than 10% would have little or no say in the governance of a business that remained more than 90% owned and controlled by a few founding investors.

    Therefore, a listing of 10% or less would also raise concerns among minority investors about the “G” for governance. This is particularly true if their holding is involuntary, for example as part of an employee pension scheme. Shein said in a social impact report, however, that it has set up a sustainability committee to provide an extra layer of corporate governance.

    Shein’s lawyer struggled to answer questions on the source of its cotton.

    Given these issues, who gains and who loses from the proposed flotation? Shein itself could of course be among the winners. Common motives for a stock exchange listing are raising capital to finance new investment or giving founding shareholders an opportunity to cash out. Listing can also make mergers and acquisitions more straightforward and incentivise employees to stay with the company by offering preferential terms for buying shares.

    There is also no doubt that a listing would be presented as a positive sign that the UK is open and attractive for business. It would generate an initial windfall, and ongoing revenue for the LSE, plus substantial fees for financial and legal service providers based in the City of London.

    Downsides

    As a private company, Shein has kept details of its financial situation out of the public domain. If the LSE listing does go ahead (which is by no means certain), the company will be required to give detail on its legal and reputational risks, as well as its financial accounts.

    This will let prospective investors and others involved in the listing estimate a pricing range for the flotation. Recent headlines suggest a total equity valuation between US$50 billion and US$66 billion (£40 billion and £52 billion), yet if the listing does not go ahead it is impossible to estimate its market value with any reliability using information that is currently in the public domain.

    Shein’s apparent desire for secrecy, and its reluctance to publish detailed financial data, suggests that its founders and controlling investors may not be comfortable with the increased scrutiny that a listing will require. A 2023 report from the company, however, claimed Shein was committed to “continued progress and transparency” in terms of sustainability and its social impact.

    If credible revelations about controversial business practices such as forced labour or illegal working conditions emerge, this is likely to damage the stock price. No doubt outside investors would have plenty of incentive to scrutinise Shein’s activities – at least, more than the consumer buying a £10 dress for a night out.

    Perhaps a cautionary example can be drawn from the UK’s much smaller home-grown fast-fashion contender, Boohoo.com (now worth around £400 million after peaking at more than £5 billion in 2020). After an initial stellar performance, the firm’s stock price never recovered from reports in 2020 about workers in its UK supply chain being paid £3.50 an hour.

    An independent review published the same year found many failings in the company’s UK supply chain – Boohoo Group responded by pledging to implement the recommendations of the review in full. However, a BBC Panorama investigation indicated that it had not fulfilled its pledges. And at under 30 pence per share, its stock price is down more than 90% since the scandal first broke. (After the programme, Boohoo insisted that it had implemented “every one” of the independent review’s recommendations.)

    Shein’s listing – if it goes ahead – will open its inner workings to public scrutiny in a way that it has never experienced before. Already, people who have never engaged with fast fashion are discussing the business practices of the company.

    If awareness is the first stage of progress, such increased scrutiny can only be a good thing for those concerned about the darker side of the fast fashion industry.

    Isaac T. Tabner is a member of the following professional bodies:

    CFA Institute,
    CFA Society of the UK,
    Personal Finance Society and Chartered Insurance Institute.

    – ref. Shein could be a shot in the arm for the London Stock Exchange – but the fashion giant might not like the added scrutiny – https://theconversation.com/shein-could-be-a-shot-in-the-arm-for-the-london-stock-exchange-but-the-fashion-giant-might-not-like-the-added-scrutiny-249541

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How banks, lawyers and lobbyists in the west help post-Communist kleptocrats stay rich

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Heathershaw, Professor in International Relations, University of Exeter

    ‘Londongrad’ is a nickname for London that encapsulates the British capital’s popularity as a haven for wealthy Russians in the post-Soviet era. Drone Motion Stock / Shutterstock

    Kleptocracy, a term derived from the Greek for “rule by thieves”, describes a system where business success and political power are inextricably entwined. Political elites exploit their position to siphon off public wealth, entrenching their power through corruption, patronage and repression.

    However, kleptocracy is not just a system of domestic corruption. It typically involves a transnational network of political elites and so-called professional enablers who work together to extract wealth and project power.

    The ability of kleptocrats to loot state resources and evade accountability depends on an ecosystem of banks, lawyers, lobbyists, intelligence agencies and PR firms that provide the financial, legal and reputational tools to legitimise stolen wealth.

    Our new book, Indulging Kleptocracy, analyses many cases of such professional enabling in the UK for elites whose wealth originates in post-Soviet countries such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. We uncovered examples of this activity using in-depth case studies that drew on court documents and correspondence with the enablers themselves.

    We found that, on countless occasions, British professionals have found loopholes in the rules, defeated new measures against money laundering, exploited the lack of transparency in universities and political parties and challenged the efficiency and effectiveness of the rule of law.

    UK properties worth tens of millions of pounds have been purchased for oligarchs and kleptocrats. And London corporate intelligence firms and lawyers have acted against journalists and researchers on behalf of their post-Soviet elite clients.

    Political parties, parliamentary groups and some of Britain’s top universities have even accepted donations from individuals associated with kleptocracy. In doing so, they have indulged kleptocrats much like the Catholic church once sold indulgences – offering absolution for a price.

    These services extend the wealth, status and influence of these elites into the UK and further afield. The phenomenon of “Londongrad” – a moniker to denote the British capital’s hosting of Russian and Eurasian oligarchs – is not merely about the amount of post-Soviet money laundered there. It incorporates a much wider offering of social and reputational goods, and political and security services.

    Indulging Kleptocracy was published on February 4 by Oxford University Press.
    John Heathershaw, Tena Prelec & Tom Mayne, CC BY-NC-ND

    Sustaining kleptocracy

    Professional enablers do not simply move money, and they don’t merely supply their services. They create the structures that sustain kleptocracy, embedding it into the political and economic fabric.

    The overall picture from the nine indulgences we study in our book, from “hiding money” (banking) to “silencing critics” (defamation law), is of regulators outgunned by the private sector. The professions are driven by market incentives, but their adherence to professional ethical standards is inconsistent.

    Enablers aren’t usually accessories to crimes. They may be acting downstream from grand corruption and are typically compliant with the law. But, in most cases, they appear to be either aware of who they are acting for or wilfully unwitting. They either justify their work by convoluted arguments or simply do not carry out effective due diligence on their clients.

    With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the British government introduced a large number of sanctions against Russian entities. It also passed two acts of parliament in 2022 and 2023 to counter illicit financial activity from Russia. But most enabling is not currently considered criminal and cannot easily be legislated out of existence.

    The issue of indulging in kleptocracy is indicative of a general problem of self-regulation in global financial centres, tax havens and other secrecy jurisdictions that arose with the end of empires in the second half of the 20th century.

    At that time, former British colonies like the British Virgin Islands and Cyprus were looking to broaden their economies into the services sector. This coincided with the end of the Soviet empire, when the wealthy and their capital were flying out of Russia and Eurasia.

    How to indulge no more

    Stopping the indulgence of kleptocracy requires moving beyond piecemeal reforms and treating it as the organised criminal enterprise it is. We suggest designating “kleptocratic enterprises” as organised crime and thereby implicating enablers as part of criminal networks. Across the world, there needs to be transparency from charities, universities and political parties.

    There should be more protection for investigators and whistleblowers. And governments could do more to stimulate the market in for-profit asset recovery.

    In 2020, US$740 million (£598 million) of real estate was seized in Spain from Rifaat al-Assad, the uncle of Syria’s former president Bashar al-Assad. This case involved private sector expertise and followed civil society investigations.

    Without such action, the transformation to a world where kleptocratic wealth and influence sit easily within democracies will continue apace. Even the perception of a connection should be subjected to proper scrutiny: Tulip Siddiq, the UK’s Treasury minister responsible for anti-corruption, recently resigned after her family and alleged financial links to the deposed kleptocratic regime in Bangladesh were highlighted.

    These connections, which the government’s ethics watchdog found not to be in breach of the ministerial code, had been known for years before they became a story. But effective PR campaigns, clever legal arguments and complex financial structures mean that many cases of kleptocratic wealth are never exposed. It’s time to uncover what professional enablers do for kleptocrats.

    John Heathershaw receives funding from the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office’s Anti-Corruption Evidence programme. He is affiliated with the Illicit Finance Working Group of the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition.

    Tena Prelec receives funding from the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office’s Anti-Corruption Evidence programme. She is affiliated with the Illicit Finance Working Group of the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition

    Tom Mayne receives funding from the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office’s Anti-Corruption Evidence programme. He is affiliated with the Illicit Finance Working Group of the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition

    – ref. How banks, lawyers and lobbyists in the west help post-Communist kleptocrats stay rich – https://theconversation.com/how-banks-lawyers-and-lobbyists-in-the-west-help-post-communist-kleptocrats-stay-rich-248973

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what that would mean for the climate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kshitij Sabnis, Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, Queen Mary University of London

    The US aerospace company Boom Supersonic recently announced it has successfully tested its latest aircraft, the XB-1. The company is developing a larger plane and aims to begin passenger flights at supersonic (faster than sound) speed within the next five years, and claims it already has orders from a handful of airlines.

    However, with ever-increasing scrutiny on the environmental consequences of flying, it is important to consider how supersonic aviation may affect the industry’s ability to meet its ambitious net zero by 2050 target.

    The latest test flight represents an important stage in the development of supersonic aircraft that minimise their characteristic “sonic boom” – the considerable noise generated as the shock waves travelling along with a supersonic aircraft pass over people on the ground.

    Boom Supersonic has carefully designing the aircraft shape to reduce this noise pollution. It did this by exploiting a phenomenon known as “Mach cutoff”, where air temperatures in the atmosphere cause shock waves to reflect upwards rather than towards the ground.

    Supersonic aircraft won’t receive certification to fly over land if they are too noisy, and overland flights are essential for their commercial viability. Indeed, failing to receive such certification limited Concorde’s routes to London-New York and Paris-New York, ultimately contributing to its demise. These recent noise improvements pave the way for Boom Supersonic to progress its larger 80-seat supersonic airliner, Overture. If all goes to plan, Overture will cruise at 1.7 times the speed of sound and could fly from London to New York in just 3.5 hours.

    Other organisations working on supersonic flight are making similar progress. US firm Spike Aerospace is developing a smaller business jet, for instance, while Nasa and defence and aerospace firm Lockheed Martin plan to begin test flying their supersonic X-59 later this year. There is every indication that planes like these are on their way back, more than two decades after Concorde last took to the skies.

    Concorde’s maiden flight back in 1969. It flew commercially between 1976 and 2003.
    Andre Cros / wiki, CC BY-SA

    Shock waves increase aerodynamic drag

    The key to understanding the environmental effects of supersonic aircraft is that, whenever its speed exceeds the speed of sound, shock waves form around the aircraft. These shock waves significantly increase the aerodynamic drag, and so more fuel needs to be burned to compensate for the drag force. Indeed, it is estimated that up to ten times more fuel needs to be burned by a supersonic aircraft compared to the equivalent subsonic airplane for every passenger mile.

    At supersonic speeds, sound itself is a drag.
    Chabacano / wiki, CC BY-SA

    The cost of this extra fuel is why typical aircraft speeds have remained pretty constant at around 85% of the speed of sound for several decades. It also leads to greater greenhouse gas emissions – as much as five to seven times more than subsonic aircraft.

    In fact, the situation may be even more stark. Supersonic aircraft tend to fly at high altitudes (Concorde flew at 60,000ft (18km) rather than the 40,000ft (12km) typical for most passenger jets) to take advantage of lower turbulence levels. This means their emissions tend to remain in the atmosphere for longer.

    Supersonic and sustainable?

    There are considerable efforts to align supersonic aircraft development with the aviation industry’s environmental ambitions. For instance, the new engines designed by Boom Supersonic are powered entirely by “sustainable aviation fuels” (Saf) which are direct replacements for traditional jet fuels that are made from renewable raw materials, often used cooking oil or crop residues. Due to its exclusive use of Saf, the Overture is advertised as having a zero-carbon footprint.

    A concept image of the Overture, the plane Boom Supersonic ultimately wants to build.
    Boom Supersonic, CC BY-SA

    In reality, the situation is more complex. Saf is often produced from edible crops and has been linked to deforestation – the total land required to power all of commercial aviation in this way is impractically immense.

    To address this longer-term problem, it is necessary to look towards alternative fuel sources. While hydrogen or electric power is being developed for regular aircraft, for now they aren’t developed enough to ensure a plane reaches supersonic speeds. Instead, one possibility is e-kerosene, a synthetic fuel generated from hydrogen and carbon dioxide using renewable electricity.

    Despite all these technological advances, a supersonic aircraft still cannot beat physics. Shock waves, and their associated drag, will still exist. So, a single supersonic aircraft will still produce considerably more carbon emissions than its subsonic counterpart.

    Beyond carbon emissions, contrails also have an effect. These are thin clouds of water vapour produced by aircraft exhausts, which can trap heat in the atmosphere the same way as greenhouse gases. These contrails are thought to have twice the impact of carbon emissions, or perhaps even more, so it is essential to take their effects into account. For now, we simply don’t know enough about contrails, especially at much higher altitudes, to definitively say how supersonic aircraft will affect the environment.

    Given the costs involved, supersonic aircraft will account for only a very small percentage of aircraft worldwide. The overall impact on the environment, in comparison to the tens of thousands of subsonic aircraft currently in operation, will be moderate.

    There is perhaps one environmental upside. The research and development activity making supersonic aviation more environmentally friendly (such as developments in fuel and propulsion technology) will likely yield technologies that transfer to subsonic aircraft too. This should help to address the much broader problem of environmental damage caused by the aviation industry as a whole.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Kshitij Sabnis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what that would mean for the climate – https://theconversation.com/supersonic-passenger-aircraft-may-be-returning-heres-what-that-would-mean-for-the-climate-250116

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Microsoft shares its agenda for the 2025 Washington state legislative session

    Source: Microsoft

    Headline: Microsoft shares its agenda for the 2025 Washington state legislative session

    This year is historic for Washington state as we welcome Governor Bob Ferguson, the first new governor in twelve years. In the few weeks since his inauguration, Bob Ferguson has signaled a pragmatic approach to governance, launching a new era in Washington State. Alongside Washingtonians across the state, Microsoft welcomes the Ferguson administration.  

    Today, in line with our commitment to transparency, we are sharing our annual legislative agenda. 

    This year is also notable as the 2025 session is a biennial budget year where over the course of 105 days, the legislature will negotiate, write, and ultimately pass three distinct yet interdependent operating, capital, and transportation budgets, outlining the critical spending and revenue plans for the next twenty-four months. With a new federal administration, new governments around the world, and our new government here in Washington, this biennial budget process has a certain gravitas. 

    Indeed, this is a critical moment for our state. The complexity of our state’s economic fabric—aerospace, technology, life sciences, agriculture, and space—has resulted in both a growing population and now, more than ever, a moment of unprecedented technological progress, presenting opportunities for Washington State and Washingtonians. Given the pace of progress all around us and the unique role we play in the innovation economy, Governor Ferguson and our legislators must be equally agile with deft and delicate policies over these next weeks of the 2025 legislative session. 

    As in years past, Microsoft’s 2025 legislative agenda aligns closely with the priorities of Washingtonians. As a homegrown global company, we have an eye on these global shifts of change and opportunity. And in these global shifts of change and opportunity, the priority of policymakers in Olympia must be on maintaining and expanding economic vitality, addressing the crisis of affordable housing, supporting high-quality education, and improving public safety and quality of life for all of Washington.  

    People-centered outcomes with policies that genuinely increase housing supply 

    Washington and Oregon have the tightest housing markets in the United States and in Washington we need housing of every kind. There is wide agreement that Washington needs to add one million new housing units over the next 20 years to meet the needs of state residents, thereby making housing more affordable.  

    In 2019, Microsoft announced a historic investment of $750 million to support the creation and  

    preservation of affordable housing. This initiative aimed to help low- and middle-income workers, such as nurses, teachers, and police officers, who are increasingly unable to afford housing near their workplaces. Our investment contributed and preserved 12,000 units of housing for our neighbors in the Puget Sound region. What we learned through our financial investment, however, is that funding is not enough. We must increase the supply of land and do more to incentivize housing development.  

    As we have for the past decade, Microsoft supports policies that make it easier, faster, and less expensive to increase housing production. We need to unlock more land for housing, increase financing, and enable efficient and effective government permitting, including the use of new technology to speed up permit review. This includes reforms and incentives that enable more housing in areas with abundant employment and transportation modes, leveraging public investments in transit to provide affordable living options for people across various income levels, enabling them to build their lives closer to their jobs, schools, parks, and other neighborhood amenities.  

    Among the novel and promising ideas being advanced this session is to promote and unlock residential uses in commercial zones, especially in close proximity to frequent and reliable transit. The rise of online shopping has led to an increase in empty big box stores and underutilized strip malls surrounded by empty parking lots. Policymakers should prioritize rezoning underutilized commercial spaces along existing transit hubs to create vibrant new communities. Freeing up larger tracts of underutilized land will help housing developers overcome the first hurdle to building multi-family apartments, townhomes, and condos.  

    For the 2025 legislative session, the legislature must continue to take big swings at policy so that Washington State has housing for all. 

    Access to all types of education for all Washingtonians 

    In April, Microsoft will celebrate 50 years in business. In the decades after Microsoft was founded, Washington state shifted to a knowledge and innovation economy. Now, we are participating in the shift to an AI economy. And to meet the needs of this moment, we need an interactive jungle gym of skilling and credentialing opportunities for all Washingtonians so we can move both upward and across career paths to follow the job opportunities that hold the most promise now and as job opportunities evolve.  

    Washington businesses are creating great jobs, but many people lack the necessary skills or credentials to attain them. We need our state to prioritize policies that address the skills gap limiting employment options for too many people. As a leader in global technology, Washington is also a leader in future technologies like AI, clean energy, and quantum computing, which will create a new wave of meaningful family-wage jobs. Washingtonians must be prepared with the right skills to participate in the economy now and in the economy of the future. 

    Microsoft also supports policies that enhance K-12 student achievement, foster career awareness in middle school, and encourage more students to pursue post-secondary credentials. Offering all Washington kids these opportunities has long been a priority for Microsoft. This year, lawmakers are advancing policies that create seamless pathways into higher education through guaranteed enrollment and generous eligibility for the Washington College Grant program. We are excited about the work being done in these areas.  

    We also encourage the state to establish more apprenticeships in high-demand fields and expand higher education programs to produce enough qualified applicants to match available jobs.  

    These are the policies that create a jungle gym of opportunity. 

    Committing to our statewide transportation plan 

    Our transportation system is the lifeblood of our state, and our state legislature has done extraordinary work in recent years. We have many important projects underway across the state. People rely on our roads, highways, rail, and ferries to travel to work, school, obtain healthcare, and find recreation. Employers also depend on reliable transportation to move parts and products around the state and beyond. We applaud the work that has been done to keep Washington moving. 

    This biennium, the priority is to ensure that projects currently underway are completed on time, provide sufficient maintenance funding for existing facilities, and continue to make necessary investments in transformative regional projects, including ultra high-speed rail in the Cascadia corridor. 

    Cascadia at the forefront of the digital economy and looking to the future 

    Washington state serves as one of the world’s leading centers for the development of artificial intelligence technology. Advances in artificial intelligence are enhancing customer service interactions, transaction processing, and workflow efficiency across various sectors. Microsoft sees extraordinary opportunities for our state government to leverage local AI expertise to maximize public resources. We look forward to participating in these crucial conversations, which are more important than ever this year.  

    As we look to the future, we are optimistic. Microsoft’s long-standing partnership with the state of Washington has been part of the success of our state. As we celebrate our 50th anniversary, we are as committed as we have ever been to collaborating with lawmakers to secure our state’s vibrant future. We look forward to working together to meet the challenges and opportunities of the next 50 years. 

    We see this as a unique opportunity to partner with Governor Ferguson and the legislature to advance Washington State using technology and innovation, increasing individual productivity capacity, and expanding access to government services for Washingtonians. 

    State budgets that are sustainable and prioritized 

    The most important policy bills the legislature will pass, however, will be the budget bills. More than anything, this bill will reflect the state’s priorities now and for the next two years. Budgets are where Washington’s tax dollars are put to work. Over the years, Microsoft has supported targeted tax increases for important programs and services. We have supported and defended nearly every transportation package in recent history. We supported the creation of the Workforce Education Investment Act to expand higher education opportunities for all Washingtonians. We have also provided millions in matching funds to help accelerate affordable housing. And just last year we helped lead the business community in defending the Climate Commitment Act. 

    This year, legislators are facing grim budget news—a budget deficit ranging from $10 to16 billion, depending on who you ask and how you do the math. Importantly, Washington State is not in a recession. This deficit is not due to an economic downturn that caused a decline in revenues. In fact, most revenues are still marginally increasing or flat. Very simply, our policymakers in Olympia have passed budgets that went beyond our means. 

    We believe this challenge affords an opportunity to reexamine recent spending and Washington State’s priorities of government. 

    We join others in Washington in asking straightforward questions about the outcomes Washingtonians are gaining from past and current state investments. Ultimately, the state budget is the state’s most important investment opportunity for improving economic competitiveness and encouraging private sector job growth.  

    We stand ready 

    This year, we stand ready to work with Governor Ferguson and the Legislature to find solutions to all these challenges. 

    The 2025 legislative session is a pivotal moment for our state. With the can-do spirit Washington has always been known for, we are optimistic our legislature and Governor Ferguson will collaborate and find creative solutions to our most pressing challenges. Like so many others across the state, we at Microsoft are eager to be partners.  

    Together, we can create a brighter, more equitable future for Washington State. 

    Tags: affordable housing, Education and Jobs, transportation, Washington state

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Security: Defense News: U.S. Navy EOD Conducts Arctic Warfare Exercise ‘Arctic Specialist’ with NATO Allies in Norway

    Source: United States Navy

    Arctic Specialist is an annual Norway-hosted multinational joint EOD and expeditionary mine countermeasures (ExMCM) exercise providing training at the platoon and squad level and the development of land and maritime EOD tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) in a cold-weather environment. Allied forces from Denmark, Norway, and Sweden trained alongside U.S. forces at this year’s event.

    “Arctic Specialist represents one of the premier exercises where Thunderstealers hone our cold weather survival, EOD, and diving skills,” said Cmdr. John Kennedy, Commander, Task Group (CTG) 68.1 (EODMU 8). “The opportunity to train alongside such capable Allies builds confidence in our ability to deploy to the Arctic region and sustain combat operations.”

    According to the Department of Defense’s 2024 Arctic Strategy, “Major geopolitical changes are driving the need for this new strategic approach to the Arctic, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the NATO Alliance, increasing collaboration between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia, and the accelerating impacts of climate change. This increasingly accessible region is becoming a venue for strategic competition, and the United States must stand ready to meet the challenge alongside Allies and partners.”

    While arctic strategy and presence is a growing priority for the U.S. military, training for arctic warfare with our Allies in the high north is not a new initiative for U.S. Navy EOD. In 1986, Norway began hosting an annual “EOD Ex”, which in 2012 became Arctic Specialist.

    “This is my 14th year participating at this exercise. The value of it, beyond working together on realistic scenarios and exchanging knowledge and TTPs, is getting to know other nations. Learning cultural respect and traditions, their working methods, the ‘do’s and don’ts’. Whatever the operation is going to be, it is important to get to know your Allies on a deep level,” said a Lieutenant Commander Operations Officer of Norwegian Naval EOD Command.

    The exercise has continued to provide an excellent training ground for EOD operators to hone their skills and operate in a uniquely challenging environment alongside NATO Allies and partners. Unique to this year’s exercise was the participation of Sweden, NATO’s newest member, for the first time.

    Participation in such exercises will enable our EOD and diving forces to increase warfighting skills in arctic conditions, use lessons learned from past engagements, and provide opportunities to learn from our Allies’ extensive cold weather operating experience.

    During the 11-day exercise, EOD and MCM forces exchanged knowledge for countering regional and global security threats. A multinational Tactical Operations Center (TOC) was established to provide command and control, intelligence, and advanced communications for all participating units.

    Beyond in-depth training on cold weather survival techniques, the exercise included live demolition for mine countermeasure diving, conventional munition disposal, limpet mine response, historical ordnance disposal operations (HODOPS), and chemical and homemade explosive (HME) response. All training was designed with an emphasis on integrated multinational operations at the tactical level in preparation for major combat operations.

    EODMU 8’s MCM Company Commander, Lt. Andrew Lewis, said, “Forward deploying our team to Norway has been critical to our development of warfighting skills in arctic conditions. Through working with our peers from Denmark, Sweden, and Norway—subject matter experts who live and operate in this environment year-round—we have gained a new understanding of and respect for the difficult conditions we could face while operating in the Arctic. Exercises like Arctic Specialist allow us to continue improving our knowledge, skills, and tactics by conducting increasingly complex and high-end missions, and to build lasting bonds with our Allies.”

    As the arctic security environment evolves, training, exercising, and operating in the Arctic will improve U.S. Navy EOD’s operational effectiveness by familiarizing the expeditionary Force with the unique and demanding operating environments of the European Arctic region. By exercising alongside Arctic Allies, the Force continues to improve interoperability and gains regional expertise.

    “This exercise is designed for the operators. The focus is ground level training, developing the skills of the EOD technicians, and everyone getting stronger,” said a Lieutenant from Norwegian Naval EOD Command.

    Before AS kicked off, a platoon of U.S. Navy EOD operators from EODMU 8 and Norwegian Navy EOD clearance divers from Minedykker Kommandoen (Norwegian Naval EOD Command) completed a 2-week winter warfare training in Hovden, Norway, focused on arctic mobility and survivability.

    The winter warfare course consisted of academic training, gear preparation, cross country, back country, and downhill skiing instruction, ski training with heavy rucksack, cold weather injury treatment and prevention, improvised shelter building, camp set up, proper clothing loadout, avalanche safety training, cold weather demolition, small arms shooting on skis, and freezing water response.

    “The value to the guys was immeasurable. Most of them started off the training without ever having skied and some never having seen snow in their lives. We went from that, to being able to self-sustain for 96 hours in the brutal, non-forgiving Norwegian wilderness in 6 feet of snow, transiting roughly 20 kilometers through the mountains, on back country skis, while wearing 70 lb. rucks,” said Explosive Ordnance Disposal Senior Chief Karl Sowinski, EODMU 8 ExMCM Company senior enlisted leader and lead exercise planner. “The cost of ending up out there alone, without the proper gear and training, is death. Out of all the environments we operate in, the Arctic is the only one that is actively trying to kill you 24/7.”

    The team did a cold-water plunge in a freezing river, where they had to function under extreme stress and cold shock. Surrounded by snow and ice, they fully submerged in the icy water, then worked through their cold response by controlling their breathing and responding to a series of questions to demonstrate mental acuity before exiting the water, donning dry clothing, and rewarming.

    “The critical takeaway of this exercise was the integration and interoperability. During the winter warfare portion, prior to Arctic Specialist, the U.S. EOD operators looked to us for our expertise in Arctic survival techniques. During Arctic Specialist, we [Norwegian EOD] looked to the U.S., Sweden, and Denmark teams for new technology or methods that we may not currently use,” said a platoon commander from Norwegian Naval EOD Command. “When we work with our Allied peers, the most valuable part is the group dynamic and becoming a team. We bond on both a personal level and as a military team, making us stronger for future engagements.”

    Continuing to exercise presence in the high north through training and operations will enhance deterrence by demonstrating combat-credible capabilities and the ability to respond rapidly to threats in the Arctic and elsewhere around the globe.

    U.S. Navy EOD stands ready to protect U.S. interests from explosive threats in the face of new challenges and an evolving security environment.

    CTF-68 commands all naval expeditionary combat forces in the U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command areas of responsibility in direct support of U.S. Naval Forces Europe -Africa, and U.S. 6th Fleet.

    U.S. 6th Fleet conducts the full spectrum of joint and naval operations, often in concert with allied, joint, and inter-agency partners, in order to advance U.S. national interests and security and stability in Europe and Africa.

    For additional news about U.S. Navy EOD, visit https://www.dvidshub.net/unit/EODG-2.

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Dmitry Chernyshenko, Sergey Kravtsov, Valery Falkov and the head of Rosmolodezh Grigory Gurov commented on the results of the strategic session on the development of education

    Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    Dmitry Chernyshenko took part in a strategic session on the development of education

    Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko, Minister of Education Sergei Kravtsov, Minister of Science and Higher Education Valery Falkov, Head of Rosmolodezh Grigory Gurov and Head of Rosobrnadzor Anzor Muzaev took part in the strategic session chaired by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

    The event summed up a series of strategy sessions under his leadership – on personnel, engineering education and the quality of education in general. It discussed issues of developing the Strategy for the Development of Education until 2036 with a perspective until 2040.

    Dmitry Chernyshenko noted that the strategy is being prepared on the instructions of President Vladimir Putin. This is work of unprecedented scale in the modern history of Russia. It involves the widest range of participants – teachers, scientists, public figures, representatives of various ministries and departments, students and their parents. All entities are also involved – a meeting with regional education ministers has already been held, and regional and district sessions have taken place.

    “Here, in the Coordination Center, we receive feedback from various sources. We have already collected more than 338 thousand opinions from citizens, including more than 45 thousand proposals through the public services portal. Thus, the strategy is being prepared by the entire country. 14 working groups are developing proposals and analyzing materials – this is more than a thousand experts,” the Deputy Prime Minister said.

    The process is coordinated by the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, the Federal Agency for Youth Affairs and the Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science. An active discussion of the strategy took place during the government hour at the State Duma. Dmitry Chernyshenko thanked the Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin and the deputies for the productive dialogue and the decisions that are being followed up by legislation.

    Answering the question of why the strategy is needed, the Deputy Prime Minister emphasized that a huge number of different participants are involved in the education system. The strategy will consolidate uniform principles and approaches to the educational process and will become its main guideline.

    In addition, it is necessary to create a sovereign education system that will unite society, reveal the potential of each person and ensure Russia’s leadership in technological, cultural and social development.

    “The key mission is to train and educate professionals, patriots of Russia, who preserve traditions and shape the future. This meets the national goals set by the President. It is important that we do not propose revolutionary changes in the education system, but only an evolutionary approach, when we take the best that we have accumulated since Soviet times. The strategy will be based on the best traditions and practices of the scientific and pedagogical national school, as well as the main achievements of the past decades,” said Dmitry Chernyshenko.

    Minister of Education Sergey Kravtsov noted that at the strategy session, the Chairman of the Government was presented with the first approaches to the Strategy for the Development of Education for the period up to 2036 with a perspective up to 2040.

    “This event is important for the entire country. We have received approval, and instructions have already been given for its further implementation. At the meeting, all issues facing the education system were considered in detail. This includes increasing teachers’ salaries, reducing the bureaucratic burden, unified educational programs, and improving the quality of natural science education. We also discussed the results that have already been achieved. Based on them, we must move forward, taking into account the challenges facing the education system and the country. I would like to emphasize that it is important to act evolutionarily, to be guided by the principle of “do no harm,” “the Minister of Education said.

    He drew attention to the fact that the student and teacher are at the center of the strategy. The Minister of Education added that it is very important not to lower the quality of education and to rely on effective solutions in the field of education. The head of the department recalled that all indicators of the national project “Education” have been achieved. More than 1,600 schools, 1,688 kindergartens have been built, almost 5 thousand schools have been overhauled. By 2030, the task is to bring all schools in the country to a standard condition.

    Speaking about how higher education will change within the framework of the Education Development Strategy, the head of the Ministry of Education and Science Valery Falkov noted that the changes will be comprehensive and will affect all areas of activity of Russian universities. At the center of this major work is the transition to a new model of higher education, which is based on three key principles: fundamentality, practice-orientedness and flexibility. They will be reflected in new educational standards and the mechanism for their rapid update, and a new list of relevant specialties will also be formed.

    The head of the Ministry of Education and Science emphasized that the task of the entire higher education system is to prepare professionals with a broad outlook, creative, critical thinkers, who love the Motherland and are ready to work for its benefit.

    “Working on the Education Development Strategy together with colleagues, we propose a set of measures that will strengthen intergenerational dialogue between children and adults, make opportunities more accessible for every young person in our country, and create high-quality content based on our traditional spiritual and moral values. All these measures are aimed at creating a single educational space at all stages of growing up and becoming a young person,” said Grigory Gurov, head of Rosmolodezh.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: A Message to UConn Faculty and Staff

    Source: US State of Connecticut

    Dear Colleagues,

    As you know, along with other senior leaders, we regularly engage with the University Senate, USG, union representatives, the Deans Council, associate deans, department heads, directors of centers and institutes, and students to talk about challenges and opportunities for our university. But we can always do more to enhance our communication efforts and ensure that everyone feels heard and valued.

    We believe that effective communication and transparency are crucial for supporting trust and sustaining positive relationships and growth at UConn and UConn Health. To that end, we would like to offer the broader UConn community more opportunities to have access to senior administrators so that faculty, students, and staff can ask questions and share their ideas on challenges and aspirational goals.

    That is especially true now. Between new and sometimes rapidly changing policies and directives from the federal government to looming potential budget difficulties here at the university to the legislative session and appropriations process that is beginning at the state capitol, we are in the midst of a fraught and complicated moment on multiple levels.

    First: Together, we are going to get through all of it. We are certainly no strangers to facing challenges. As events unfold, we will deal with them — meeting the moment, coming together as a community, and being responsive while always staying true to our values.

    We will remain optimistic about the future despite the challenges of the present because we will persevere and adhere to our mission to educate the next generation of leaders across multiple fields; create educational access and opportunity for all; conduct innovative and impactful research; and engage Connecticut’s communities in the service of improving the world around us.

    As we continue to work to navigate the issues we face, we want to make sure we share relevant information with our community but also connect with and hear from you in multiple venues, both formal and informal.

    We have used the stakeholder discussions noted above as opportunities to assess our current circumstances and focus on solutions-based paths forward. Similar discussions are happening at the school, college, and department levels through the regular cadence of unit meetings as well as through smaller in-person gatherings.

    Like many leaders, we’re not only talking to one another, but are in constant contact with colleagues at institutions around the nation, our contacts at funding agencies, state leaders, and members of our Congressional delegation.

    The mood and tone of these discussions, beyond information sharing, is steady determination. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we are in it for the long haul. Our collective goal is to support and protect higher education across the United States – making sure that we maintain the considerable strengths of this precious national resource while innovating into the future.

    With respect to internal communication, in addition to written messages and web content, we will resume a practice that we first began during the Covid pandemic: Beginning soon, we and other senior leaders at UConn and UConn Health will hold bi-weekly check-ins over Teams with the campus community, where we will share information and answer questions that can be submitted in advance or during the meeting itself.

    We will share the date and time of the first meeting once it has been scheduled. In the meantime, please e-mail questions to which you would like answers (to the extent there are answers) to Communications@UConn.edu with the subject line: “Questions for leadership.”

    In addition, we also want to make ourselves available at the local level through smaller group discussions during academic departmental meetings. If you would like to invite us to attend a regularly scheduled meeting of your department, please e-mail President@UConn.edu with the subject line: “Invite to department meeting.”

    We also want to take this opportunity to acknowledge what is so abundantly clear: that many members of our community, including particularly vulnerable populations, are feeling everything from deep concern to outright worry. Please know that we and your university are here for you and support you. As we have said many times, we know what our values are and they are not going to change.

    We plan to send a message similar to this to our students.

    We don’t pretend to have all the answers or the perfect prescription to address each of the challenges we face, but we are going to do all we can in partnership with you to move forward.

    All the best,

    President Radenka Maric

    Provost Anne D’Alleva

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: CT High School Students Publish Their Artificial Intelligence Research Performed at UConn School of Medicine

    Source: US State of Connecticut

    Two Connecticut high school seniors Meera Kannan and Gabrielle Bridgewater have published their study findings on “Leveraging public AI tools to explore systems biology resources in mathematical modeling” this month in the journal NPJ Systems Biology and Applications.

    They conducted their research at UConn School of Medicine in the Laboratory of Dr. Michael Blinov as part of their Health Career Opportunity Programs experience.

    “NPJ Systems Biology and Applications is one of the top journals in systems biology,” shares their proud mentor and senior study author Michael Blinov, Ph.D., associate professor of Genetics and Genome Sciences at the Center for Cell Analysis and Modeling at UConn School of Medicine. “The application of AI tools in biology is a rapidly evolving and exciting field. This is a great achievement for these high school students, and they deserve it through their hard work.”

    On Feb. 22  the two high school students will be presenting their scientific findings virtually at the 62ndConnecticut Junior Science and Humanities Symposium hosted by the UConn Health-based CT AHEC program in Farmington. Each year the long-running, prestigious symposium gathers the state’s talented high school students exceling across the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

    “Thank you very much Dr. Blinov for your many years of dedication hosting our Health Career Opportunity Programs High School students in your research laboratory. The fact that these two high school students are co-first authors on a manuscript from research conducted in your Lab and presenting their research at the CT Junior Science and Humanities Symposium at UConn Health is phenomenal,” shared Dr. Marja Hurley, UConn Board of Trustees Distinguished Professor and professor of medicine and orthopaedic surgery at UConn School of Medicine. Hurley is founder and associate dean of the Health Career Opportunity Programs at UConn Health.

    “I’m very excited to share our findings with a larger group of people. I hope this will spur more exploration of the intersection of AI with other fields of medicine,” says Kannan.

    “I am extremely excited to present our findings and share our hard work with the larger science community. I know our research is already published and out there for anyone who wants to read it, but getting to speak about it still feels so special,” says Bridgewater.

    Blinov truly enjoys working with the eager to learn, dedicated, and hardworking HCOP students at UConn School of Medicine.

    “Over the years, my HCOP students have played an essential role in many of my projects. My experiences with high school students have been very positive, and in this particular case, these two students were fortunate that their chosen study topic led to a quick success story,” Blinov says.

    He finds it incredibly rewarding to see the gratitude and success of his past high school HCOP program students many of whom have gone on to have successful health care careers at places such as Yale, Cornell, and UConn.

    “One of my most notable success stories is my 2017 HCOP student, Nathan Schaumburger. He later joined UConn and returned to work with me in 2020, which led to a 2023 publication, with another paper forthcoming. Nathan is now a graduate student at Harvard,” Blinov proudly shares.

    Meet the Study Co-Authors

    Lead co-author Meera Kannan, 18, is a senior at South Windsor High School. She hopes to become a future physician.

    “It’s very exciting to be published. I was motivated to explore how AI could have a positive impact and make systems biology more accessible for students like me. I hope to continue working with Dr. Blinov and other professors at UConn in the future,” says Kannan.

    Kannan credits HCOP for opening her mind further to both innovative medicine and research.

    “I first heard about HCOP during a tour of UConn in my sophomore year. I was very interested in their mission as well as in conducting research, so I decided to apply. I think this program helped reveal the creativity behind medicine and taught me a lot about the impact of scientific innovation,” she says.

    Kannan hopes to conduct more research in a variety of fields to broaden her horizons.

    “I plan to pursue medicine, and this experience at UConn has been central in solidifying that commitment. The skills and perspectives I’ve learned here will definitely be invaluable as I explore the more rigorous side of medicine,” says Kannan.

    Lead co-author Gabrielle Bridgewater, 17, is a senior at Tolland High School and also wants to be a future doctor.

    “Being a published author and getting to conduct my own study is definitely the most exciting thing I’ve ever done and my proudest accomplishment to date,” Bridgewater exclaims. “It’s honestly also really motivating because it makes me so excited for what’s next and it really feels like the sky is the limit.”

    “We chose to study AI because it’s a field that’s rapidly expanding and relevant to kids our age. When our peers have questions most of them look to AI to answer them, so we wanted to see how useful it could be for students who are interested in learning more about systems biology (like ourselves). It’s a relatively niche field which means in a lot of cases AI might be the most accessible tool to use if they want to educate themselves on the subject. We wanted to understand just how reliable of a tool it is, and its potential for studying systems biology,” she says.

    Bridgewater was inspired to enter the health sciences and join the HCOP program by her father who is biochemist.

    “During my junior year he was helping me look for summer opportunities where I could get hands on healthcare experience and he found the HCOP program. I truly enjoyed every moment of the program. I think it was especially unique because not only did I get research experience, but I also got to learn about the college and medical school application processes, talk to current pre-med undergraduates, and improve my public speaking skills. Without the program I would never have had access to this information and these opportunities,” she says.

    “My experience with HCOP definitely solidified my passion for pursuing a career as a physician. It also sparked my interest in possibly going down the MD/PhD route which is a path I wasn’t previously aware of. I know I want to continue conducting research, gaining exposure to the health sciences, and exploring the intersection of AI and systems biology,” concludes Bridgewater.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Council seeks people ready to step up to be social workers

    Source: City of Leicester

    PEOPLE who have experience in supporting vulnerable children, young people, adults or families – but do not have a social work degree – are being invited to apply for a post-graduate training programme that will give them the qualification they need.

    Leicester City Council is now recruiting to the Government’s 2026-27 Step Up To Social Work programme and wants to hear from aspiring social workers – graduates or career changers – who would like a place on it.

    Step Up To Social Work is a 14-month, full-time training programme backed by the Department for Education (DfE), which offers a combination of academic study and hands-on social work experience in a local authority. It will run from January 2026 to March 2027.

    Successful applicants will receive their training costs and a bursary of £21,995 over the duration of the programme to support them whilst in training.

    Laurence Jones, the council’s strategic director of social care and education, said: “Social care is a very challenging, but very rewarding profession. There will be many people who have experience of working with vulnerable children or families but don’t have a social work degree, and this training programme gives them the chance to become a qualified social worker whilst receiving financial support to retrain.

    “Over the last 14 years around 40 people have taken up this training opportunity, and we look forward to receiving applications from people interested in joining us.”

    The council is holding an online training event on Tuesday 25 February for people to find out more about the programme. Anyone interested can contact Sara.Paskell@leicester.gov.uk 

    The application portal and full details are also available at: Step up to social work – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

    The Step Up programme will support 700 individuals to enter the social work profession in local authorities across England in 2026. This will be the ninth cohort of Step Up since 2010, with the programme successfully supporting over 2,900 social workers to enter the profession across England.  

    (ends)

    Notes to editors

    • More information about applying to Step Up to Social Work can be found here: Home | Step Up to Social Work (pocketrecruiter.com)
    • The Step Up programme runs every two years.
    • Applications will open from 17 February to 25 March 2025 (subject to regional demand), followed by regional assessment centres for candidates successful at the initial application stage. Students can expect to start the programme in January 2026, completing their training in March 2027.
    • Candidates are eligible to apply if they have:
    • a minimum 2:2 degree qualification (level 6).

    For some Local Authority areas, final year students will be eligible to apply with a minimum 2:2 predicted grade. For all other Local Authority areas, they must have completed their degree programme to apply.

    • 6 months’ full-time (or equivalent) direct experience, either in a paid or voluntary capacity, of working with vulnerable children, young people and/or families, carers or vulnerable adults
    • A GCSE in English or English language at grade 4 (C) or above (or an approved equivalent)

    For some Local Authority areas, there will also be a requirement to have a GCSE in Mathematics (or an approved equivalent).

    • The programme is for those without a degree in social work and who want to become a social worker. Successful applicants will train through a combination of academic study and hands on social work experience in a local authority.
    • On successful completion of the programme, trainees will qualify with a Postgraduate Diploma in Social Work enabling them to apply to register with Social Work England and to practice as a qualified social worker, making a difference by nurturing relationships with families during difficult times and by protecting children.

     

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s quiet change to US position on Taiwan is all about the economy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chee Meng Tan, Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham

    The US state department has removed a highly symbolic phrase from its routine update on Taiwan. Its previous briefings said: “We do not support Taiwan independence.” This disappeared on February 13 2025.

    That’s not all. Donald Trump’s new government also stated on the same day that it advocated a peaceful and coercion free resolution to the Sino-Taiwan issue and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. These may seem like small tweaks to previous US positions, but they are sending a big signal to China.

    Beijing is concerned that the changes in the state department’s factsheet suggest that Trump’s government may be taking a stronger tack than was expected in being prepared to defend, or throw support behind, the island of Taiwan.

    The issue for China is that it sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, which it believes should return to Beijing’s orbit. Many Taiwanese see it as a separate state.

    China hasn’t ruled out the use of force to make Taiwan part of the republic and has even sent warplanes to defend the Taiwan Strait in the past week. China claims the waterway between the island and the mainland as its own, though this is disputed under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea.

    Beijing will be concerned that Washington’s updated wording on Taiwan might mean that the US is less likely to stand idly by if China invades the island than it might have expected. But what’s also interesting is why the US is warming up to Taiwan despite how aggrieved Trump has been by how Taiwan has “stolen” the semiconductor industry from the US.

    Trump’s eye on business

    Given Trump’s transactional, or business-first approach, towards politics, it is hardly surprising that Washington’s updated statement of support on Taiwan’s independence may be aimed towards enhancing US rather than Taiwanese interests.

    Many in Trump’s second cabinet such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz are China hawks who view Beijing as a national security threat and advocate a more aggressive stance towards China. One major US concern is China’s growing influence in Asia, which challenges US influence within the region.

    Trump announces more tariffs on China in his first weeks in office.

    While Washington still appears to tip its hat towards a one-China policy, its updated statement on Taiwanese independence suggests that the US might adopt an aggressive approach to any move by Beijing. The US’s watching brief on the China-Taiwan conflict will mean Beijing will have to think hard before taking any measures towards reclaiming the island right now.

    A weakened Beijing?

    China’s president, Xi Jinping, had hoped to win international hearts and minds through the Belt and Road Initiative, its global trade plan to build an international network of countries receiving Chinese investment. But as China’s own economy is weakened by a real estate crisis that started in 2021, the aim of showing Xi’s success through economic means is not working out as hoped.

    The other avenue for Xi to enhance his reputation as leader is to bring Taiwan back into the Chinese fold. Since the Chinese Communist party came to power in 1949, various Chinese leaders have made reunification with Taiwan a long-term goal. So, if Xi could return Taiwan to China, he could be hailed domestically as one of the greatest leaders the country has ever seen.

    If China’s plan to reunify with Taiwan was already a major challenge, Washington’s altered stance on Taiwan independence and overt opposition towards coercion or the use of force makes this task even more difficult for Beijing. This could weaken Xi’s image and undermine his rule further (and may of course be part of Trump’s agenda).

    Prepped for the negotiation table

    The US and China had spent years in trade negotiations before US tariffs were imposed on China during Trump’s first term, culminating in the phase one deal in January 2020. Trump has already announced an extra 10% of tariffs on Chinese goods in his first month in office.

    It is plausible that these statements on Taiwan are aimed at enhancing Washington’s bargaining power in the burgeoning China-US trade war.

    In 2016, Trump accused China of “raping” the US with unfair trade policies, and imposed tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese goods coming into the US. During his 2024 presidential campaign trail, Trump went as far as to suggests that tariffs on Chinese goods could go as high as 60%.

    Higher tariffs are bad news for China since the country relies heavily on exports for economic growth, especially on high tech “new three” products – electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar panels – to recover its ailing economy.

    However, if Beijing is forced to retreat from Taiwan, Xi might have to fall back heavily on the economy to maintain political legitimacy. When that happens, Beijing could be forced to offer concessions to the Americans, such as buying more US products, and to address how subsidies are used to aid Chinese firms to the detriment of US businesses in China.

    Overall, it’s likely that someone on Trump’s team has thought about all the implications of tweaking its Taiwan stance, and sees it as working out well for the US economy and, potentially, the Trump government overall. Taiwan is just a pawn in the game.

    Chee Meng Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s quiet change to US position on Taiwan is all about the economy – https://theconversation.com/trumps-quiet-change-to-us-position-on-taiwan-is-all-about-the-economy-250106

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 5 ways to improve security governance and prevent future illegal mining tragedies from happening

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andrew Grant, Associate Professor of Political Studies, Queen’s University, Ontario

    After six months trapped underground, roughly 246 illegal miners were rescued at Buffelsfontein gold mine in Stilfontein, South Africa, in mid-January following a court order and intense public outcry.

    An estimated 2,000 miners had been trapped underground after police blocked food and water from families and supporters in an attempt to force them into surrendering for arrest. In total, 87 died, many from starvation or dehydration, according to civic groups. Some survivors reportedly resorted to eating cockroaches or the flesh of their deceased colleagues to survive.

    Illegal miners, known as “zama zamas” in South Africa, are people who enter mining sites without authorization to extract leftover gold and other minerals, often under dangerous and exploitative conditions.

    This incident highlights the current failures in security governance at abandoned mining sites. Rather than ensuring safety and protecting lives, the police response contributed to the scale of the tragedy.

    To prevent similar tragedies, security governance at abandoned or closed mining sites must be improved, and inclusive policies that address employment needs must be implemented.

    A dangerous occupation

    As more mining sites in South Africa and across the world reach the end of their life cycles, the number of mine closures will increase, along with the need for more effective security governance.

    The value of remaining minerals, combined with the dearth of alternatives to sustain livelihoods, has led some people to engage in illegal artisanal mining, despite the significant risks involved.

    While illegal mining provides financial support for households in impoverished regions, it also releases pollutants into the environment, disrupts and degrades water resources and supports criminal networks.

    South Africa is a prime example of these challenges. The country is home to an estimated 6,000 abandoned mines and 30,000 illegal miners. Security governance challenges are a major part of South Africa’s socioeconomic reality, and these challenges continue to grow despite government crackdowns in recent years.

    Current enforcement efforts are doing little to address the decades of poor post-mine closure management. South Africa’s Petroleum and Mineral Resources Development Act requires mining companies to rehabilitate sites after closure, although compliance is sporadic, leaving communities and ecosystems at risk.

    With limited job opportunities in the formal sectors of the economy, many young people aged 15 to 34 have turned to informal sectors, including illegal mining, due to its low entry barriers. Compounding the problem is the government’s failure to legally distinguish between illegal and informal mining.

    5 ways to improve security governance

    The Buffelsfontein incident is a grim reminder that security governance cannot rely solely on policing tactics. Addressing the worsening socioeconomic cycle of miners trapped in abandoned and uncontrolled mines will require governments, companies and local communities to build stronger relationships before crises arise.

    Solutions must recognize that zama zamas work with no safety equipment and face daily threats from criminal syndicates who control mining territories. We propose five solutions that, together, address the socioeconomic and governance challenges:

    1. The Petroleum and Mineral Resources Development Act should be amended so mining permits are only granted when firms provide a mine closure security plan. This plan must include physical barriers like fencing and sealed shafts, with local communities involved in security enforcement. Funding would come from an independent relinquishment fund via annual contributions over the active lifespan of the mine to an interest-earning annuity held by a local financial institution and monitored by government and civil society.

    2. Security efforts should combine private security firms with community-based approaches, including hiring local residents in monitoring roles. This approach will foster trust, create jobs, improve security governance and enhance environment, social and governance (ESG) investment ratings.

    3. Drawing from successful models in other countries like Chile, drones, unmanned aerial vehicles and artificial intelligence monitoring methods can help monitor and secure high-risk areas. When used ethically, such technologies can reduce unauthorized mining activities.

    4. With unemployment in South African mining regions exceeding 40 per cent, governments and the private sector must focus on renewable energy, agriculture and entrepreneurship as economic alternatives for mining communities. Germany’s Emscher Park Project, for instance, has transformed coal mining regions into renewable energy hubs that create jobs and revitalize local economies. South Africa can also repurpose abandoned mining sites for such initiatives.

    5. As South Africa turns its attention to critical minerals, it has an opportunity to expand its green bonds to include funding for post-closure financial recovery for mining communities. These funds could finance infrastructure projects, vocational training and education so mining communities can transition successfully to other economic sectors.

    Lessons for Canada

    Canada is no stranger to the challenges of managing mines after closure. Across the Yukon, Northwest Territories and northern parts of several provinces, tailing pond failures have led to environmental pollution during the post-closure phase of the mining cycle.

    Investing in post-closure mine rehabilitation can prevent future harms to the environment, as well as enhance the human security of local communities. Green investors and sustainable finance funds like those informed by the Institute for Sustainable Finance must take a more active role in funding these efforts.

    The Buffelsfontein tragedy should serve as a wake-up call: security governance must evolve from punitive enforcement to proactive protection. Providing alternative livelihoods to illegal mining weakens criminal networks, removes dangerous working conditions, reduces environmental harms and saves lives.

    Though Canada is considered a mining superpower, it could learn valuable lessons from South Africa’s experience. Adopting our suggested solutions could help Canada address its own abandoned mine risks and ensure a more sustainable future for its mining communities.

    Andrew Grant has received grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada

    Benjamin Ofosu-Atuahene has received funding in the form of an Ontario Graduate Scholarship.

    Olusola Ogunnubi has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. 5 ways to improve security governance and prevent future illegal mining tragedies from happening – https://theconversation.com/5-ways-to-improve-security-governance-and-prevent-future-illegal-mining-tragedies-from-happening-248741

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Salford school creates new woodland

    Source: City of Salford

    City of Trees, the Community Forest for Greater Manchester, has been working with Salford City Academy in Eccles to plant over 600 trees on the school grounds.

    602 whips were planted as part of a programme of works with the school’s eco and intervention group over a seven-week period. As well as learning how to plant trees, the pupils were educated on topics such as woodland design, and proper tool handling.

    In addition to the woodland creation, five fruit trees and 16 standard trees have been planted by the City of Trees in-house contract team. The 16 semi mature standard trees were funded by Defra’s Northern Forest programme.

    The new woodland forms part of Salford City Council’s pledge to support the planting of 8,000 trees by 2028, demonstrating their commitment to tackling climate change.

    Working with City of Trees, the council has already supported the planting of 1,654 trees during this current planting season, which runs from September to March.

    The council is also working with developers in the planning process to plant new trees as part of new developments, and working with City of Trees to identify planting sites for street trees and other new woodland areas.

    Grace Lee, Standards Officer at City of Trees, said “It was a real pleasure working with the pupils at Salford City Academy. We hope some of them left feeling inspired to become the next generation of Urban Foresters.

    “Greening school grounds is an important part of our work, trees improve student’s health and wellbeing, create habitats for wildlife and help to combat climate change. We encourage any schools in Salford to get in touch to learn more about woodland creation opportunities on their land”

    City Mayor Paul Dennett said “I’m delighted to see the new woodland which will make a huge and lasting impact to staff and pupils at the school.

    “It’s great to see the school doing their bit to respond to climate change. This is one of the council’s priorities and we’re investing in the city’s vital green spaces to support biodiversity. Our pledge to plant 8,000 new trees in Salford by 2028 is picking up pace, with 1,654 trees planted so far.”

    Susan Halsall, Director of Education with Character at Salford City Academy said “Our pupils have really enjoyed this experience. They have been excellent ambassadors for the school, with representatives from all year groups demonstrating their commitment to the environment, planting a legacy for the future.”

    Photo left to right: Grace Lee, Standards Officer, City of Trees; Paul Dennett, Salford City Mayor, Susan Halsall, Director of Education with Character, Salford City Academy

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    Date published
    Tuesday 18 February 2025

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    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Security: United States Attorney’s Office Announces Departure of Adair Ford Boroughs as U.S. Attorney

    Source: Office of United States Attorneys

    First Assistant U.S. Attorney Brook B. Andrews is now Acting U.S. Attorney

    COLUMBIA, S.C. — The United States Attorney’s Office for the District of South Carolina announced today the departure of Adair F. Boroughs as U.S. Attorney following termination by the new administration.

    Under the Vacancies Reform Act, First Assistant U.S. Attorney Brook B. Andrews is now the Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of South Carolina.  As Acting U.S. Attorney, Andrews is the chief federal law enforcement official in the state of South Carolina.

    Andrews is a career federal prosecutor who first joined the Department of Justice through the Attorney General’s Honors Program in 2009. In addition to serving as First Assistant, Andrews previously served as Deputy Criminal Chief over the White Collar and General Crimes Section, District Ethics Officer, and as an Assistant U.S. Attorney handling a wide range of criminal, civil, and appellate matters. Andrews received an undergraduate degree from Davidson College, a master’s degree from the George Washington University, and a law degree from the University of South Carolina School of Law. Before joining the Department of Justice, Andrews clerked for U.S. District Judge Margaret Seymour of the District of South Carolina, and Chief Justice Jean Toal of the South Carolina Supreme Court.

    Boroughs was sworn in as United States Attorney in July of 2022, following a nomination by President Biden and confirmation by the U.S. Senate. As United States Attorney, Boroughs oversaw a staff that included approximately 140 attorneys and support personnel. During her tenure, Boroughs prioritized enforcement of federal civil rights laws and partnering with local, state, and federal law enforcement to address violent crime. The office secured five federal hate crime convictions and hosted seven United Against Hate events around the state in partnership with FBI Columbia to educate the public on the existence of a federal hate crime statute and encourage the reporting of hate crime incidents.

    Boroughs prioritized the prosecution of offenders driving violence in South Carolina communities and recognized the value of local partners in identifying these offenders. Under her tenure, the office announced multi-defendant indictments and takedowns disrupting gun trafficking rings, illegal narcotics operations, and gang violence. She also oversaw multiple human trafficking, child exploitation, and white-collar prosecutions, including the recent indictment and extradition of a Nigerian national for a sextortion scheme resulting in the death of a 17-year-old Gavin Guffey. 

    “It has been the honor of my career to return to the Department of Justice and to serve alongside the men and women of the U.S. Attorney’s Office,” said Adair Ford Boroughs, “The career men and women of this office work tirelessly day in and day out to meet the Department’s mission–to uphold the rule of law, keep our country safe, and protect civil rights. It has been my honor to support them in this critical and patriotic work however I could for as long as I could. To my colleagues, our law enforcement partners, and our South Carolina community, thank you for trusting me with this work.”

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    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Security: U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Montana announces departure of U.S. Attorney Jesse Laslovich

    Source: Office of United States Attorneys

    BILLINGS — The United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Montana today announced the departure of U. S. Attorney Jesse Laslovich, effective yesterday.

    Mr. Laslovich has served as the chief federal law enforcement officer for the District of Montana since being sworn into office on June 2, 2022. President Joe Biden nominated Mr. Laslovich for the position on Jan. 31, 2022, and the U.S. Senate confirmed him on May 17, 2022.

    As U.S. Attorney, Mr. Laslovich oversaw all federal criminal prosecutions and civil litigation on behalf of the U.S. government. The district has offices in Helena, Great Falls, Missoula, Butte, and Billings.

    “It has been the honor of my life to serve as the United States Attorney for the state that raised me. I am profoundly grateful to the talented and hard-working people in this office, as well as our federal, state, local, and tribal law enforcement partners who strive every day to uphold the rule of law, keep people safe, and steadfastly defend the interests of the United States of America. I have never been prouder to have served with them, and I will always be rooting hard for their continued safety and success,” Mr. Laslovich said.

    During Mr. Laslovich’s tenure, the U.S. Attorney’s Office focused on prosecuting drug trafficking and violent and sexual abuse crimes occurring on Montana’s six Indian Reservations that are within federal jurisdiction for major crimes; building strong partnerships with other federal, tribal, state and local law enforcement agencies; addressing violent and firearms crimes in communities across the state through initiatives like Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) and Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces (OCDETF); and protecting civil rights for all Montanans. The office continued its work to protect children from online and in person sexual predators, abusers, and traffickers, and to catch fraudsters, especially those who prey on elderly and vulnerable persons.

    Mr. Laslovich also emphasized the importance of strong working relationships with numerous law enforcement agencies at the local, state, tribal and federal levels. Mr. Laslovich and office representatives met regularly with tribal leadership to discuss various issues. The office also worked closely with other federal, state, and local law enforcement partners and organizations to strengthen trust, communications, and cooperation in working toward the shared goal of keeping people safe and holding offenders accountable.

    In Indian Country, the U.S. Attorney’s Office worked with tribal and federal law enforcement partners to shut down trafficking rings attempting to set up bases on Montana reservations and enlist residents to distribute drugs transported from outside Montana. One of those cases involved dismantling a large, multi-state drug trafficking organization that was based on Crow Indian Reservation property known as Spear Siding and distributed methamphetamine and fentanyl to three other Montana Indian reservations and communities from suppliers in Washington and a Mexican cartel. The case resulted in federal convictions in Montana of 27 persons and was one of the largest federal drug trafficking investigations in Montana.

    Additionally, a recent six-month-long enforcement initiative led by the Drug Enforcement Administration, in cooperation with Blackfeet Law Enforcement Services and the Bureau of Indian Affairs Reservation, led to indictments of multiple individuals on drug crimes. The enforcement action was aimed at identifying hot spots and devoting law enforcement resources to communities facing rising rates of drug-related violent crime and overdose deaths.

    During the last three years, federal prosecutors remained committed to making communities across Montana safer by identifying and prosecuting the most dangerous offenders through initiatives like PSN and OCDETF. In Great Falls, a multi-agency investigation into a large fentanyl trafficking ring led to a coordinated take down of suspects and convictions of 10 individuals.

    During Mr. Laslovich’s tenure, prosecutions of individuals on federal firearms crimes increased significantly. The average number of defendants charged with illegal possession of a firearm averaged 111 cases a year from 2022 through 2024, compared with an average of 83 cases per year from 2014 to 2021. And the number of defendants charged with carrying a firearm in relation to a crime of violence or drug trafficking also increased to an average of 56 cases a year from 2022 to 2024 from an average of 40 cases per year from 2014 to 2021.

    Additionally, Mr. Laslovich oversaw the launch in Montana of United Against Hate, a Justice Department initiative focused on improving the prevention of hate crimes and hate incidents by building relationships at the local level. Laslovich and the office’s civil rights coordinator and prosecutor held a series of community meetings across the state with law enforcement partners, community and faith organizations, tribal communities, and citizens to discuss identifying and reporting hate crimes and to learn about available resources. Further, the office successfully prosecuted a Basin man on federal hate and firearms crimes after he fired an AK-style assault rifle at the residence of a woman, who identified as lesbian, and was home at the time. The defendant was sentenced to 18 years in prison.

    The office’s civil team continued its work defending the United States in litigation, collecting debts owed to the federal government, and investigating fraud. As part of that work, the U.S. Attorney’s Office reached a civil settlement agreement in 2024 between the federal government and St. Peter’s Health, in Helena, in which St. Peter’s agreed to pay $10,844,201 to resolve allegations that it violated the False Claims Act by submitting false claims for payments to federal health care programs for services performed by an oncology doctor.

    Prior to becoming U.S. Attorney, Mr. Laslovich served as regional vice president for SCL Health Montana-Wyoming since 2017. From 2009 to 2016, Mr. Laslovich was chief legal counsel in the office of the Montana Commissioner of Securities and Insurance, where he prosecuted securities fraud cases. During 2011 and 2012, Laslovich also served as a special assistant U.S. attorney on securities cases in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Montana. He previously worked in the Montana Attorney General’s Office. Mr. Laslovich began his legal career at Datsopoulos, MacDonald & Lind, P.C. in Missoula and taught as an adjunct professor at the University of Montana School of Law for two semesters.

    As one of the youngest Montanans ever elected to the Montana Legislature, Mr. Laslovich first served in the House of Representatives from 2001 through 2004 and then in the Senate from 2005 to 2010, representing Anaconda-Deer Lodge, Granite, and Powell counties.

    Mr. Laslovich received his J.D. from the University of Montana School of Law in 2006 and his B.A., with high honors, from the University of Montana in 2003.

    XXX

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Meet the Council drop-in for business support

    Source: Scotland – City of Edinburgh

    A Meet the Council event will be held on Tuesday 11 March at the Assembly Rooms on George Street between 10:00am and 2:00pm.

    Local businesses are encouraged to register in advance to secure a space to the drop-in, with opportunities throughout the day to meet with key Council teams and hear about opportunities for business growth.

    Offering a single point of access for business support, the event will bring together Council officers from:
    • Building standards
    • Business Gateway
    • Commercial property
    • Cultural events
    • Economic development
    • Edinburgh Convention Bureau
    • Environmental health
    • Film Edinburgh
    • Forever Edinburgh
    • JET (Jobs, Education & Training)
    • Licensing
    • Non-Domestic Rates
    • Parental Employability Support
    • Planning
    • Procurement
    • The Edinburgh Employer Recruitment Incentive
    • The Edinburgh Guarantee
    • Trading standards
    • Visitor Levy

    Throughout the day, external partners will also be on hand to present and share their expertise, including:
    • Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce, an independent membership organisation which supports over 1,000 organisations who employ more than 120,000 staff in the Capital
    • British Business Bank, a government-owned economic bank specialised in helping businesses in the UK access financial support
    • Federation of Small Businesses, a non-profit organisation that helps small businesses and the self-employed
    • Capital City Partnership, the anchor delivery body for Edinburgh’s employability strategy, working together to tackle inequality and poverty
    • Edinburgh Social Enterprise Network, which works to create opportunities for Edinburgh’s Social Enterprise community to develop and thrive
    • Forth Green Freeport, Scotland’s largest opportunity to deliver a just transition to net zero, to attract significant inward investment, to build international trade and export capability, and to create high quality and well paid jobs.

    Councillor Lezley Marion Cameron, Housing, Homelessness and Fair Work Convener, said: 

    Edinburgh continues to have the strongest local economy outside of London and the highest number of registered Living Wage employers in Scotland. The entrepreneurialism, success and resilience of Edinburgh business owners contributes hugely to what makes our City of Edinburgh a unique and special place to live and work.

    We would like to work much more closely with the business community in offering meaningful support, understand more fully the views, concerns and aspirations of business owners and work jointly in securing a vibrant, sustainable, and resilient economic future for Edinburgh.

    We recognise that the current economic climate is challenging, and in working together with businesses and other partners, there is much we can do collectively to grow and sustain Edinburgh’s economy, promote the benefits of Fair Work, and become a fairer city for all. That’s why the Council is hosting this opportunity for businesses to meet us face-to-face and engage with our staff teams across a variety of services which support business.

    Whether you’re looking for advice on funding, navigating licensing, or exploring how we can support employers, this event is an ideal place to connect directly with the right people, who can provide the advice and support you need.

    The Meet the Council event is designed to support Edinburgh’s business community and help foster a thriving, greener, and fairer economy – as outlined in the Council’s Business Plan 2023-27.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –