Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Ritson, Research Fellow, Geography, University of Manchester
By the 2080s, climate change will mean most of Britain’s peatlands could be too dry to form new peat. That’s the stark warning from a new academic study my colleagues and I just published in the Journal of Applied Ecology.
Peat bogs are found in areas where there is lots of rain but poor drainage. These vital ecosystems are relied upon to deliver drinking water, host rare plant and bird life and to mitigate the risk of floods by slowing rainwater as it heads downstream.
Perhaps most importantly, peatlands also sequester huge amounts of carbon. That’s because peat is made of the remnants of plants accumulated over hundreds or thousands of years. Waterlogged conditions mean the plants don’t fully decompose, so the carbon they’re made of is kept in the ground and isn’t released into the atmosphere. Peat can be several metres deep so all that plant matter adds up – per square metre, a typical British peat bog stores far more carbon than a tropical rainforest.
As peat needs very wet conditions to form, our study first mapped out the temperature and rainfall conditions under which this has occurred in the UK in the past. We then took the Met Office’s UK climate projections and looked at where these conditions would continue to occur by the 2080s. The results were, quite frankly, shocking.
Although small pockets of favourable conditions may still be present in Wales, and larger ones in Scotland, the outlook for England is dismal, with barely any areas continuing to be suitable for peat formation due to increasing temperatures and lower summer rainfall.
James Hutton Institute / Biogeochemistry
In the “Flow Country” of northern Scotland, a bog so big it has been designated a Unesco world heritage site, the area in which we might expect peatlands to thrive is likely to be reduced by at least 50% even in the best-case climate scenario. This scenario of mild warming is, unfortunately, unlikely to happen. More extreme scenarios of peatland degradation are increasingly realistic.
We still don’t know exactly what this will mean for the peatlands in places like Exmoor or Dartmoor in southern England, however we do know that life will become more and more challenging for these precious ecosystems. Not experiencing the temperature and rainfall that caused peat formation in the first place could mean they start to emit the carbon currently stored, as this is reliant on them staying wet and boggy.
Peatlands are naturally resilient and aren’t going to disappear overnight (the Peak District in northern England was heavily degraded for over a century, yet still hosts many metres of peat soils). But conservation and restoration work is going to be ever more necessary if we are to preserve these landscapes as carbon sinks rather than sources.
More money for conservation
One ray of light in all this is that the challenging conditions in England could actually unlock more money for conservation efforts. The UK Peatland Code is a climate finance initiative that allows landowners to generate income from peatland restoration by selling carbon credits. The number of credits they can claim is based on the difference in avoided emissions from a “do nothing” scenario in which they do no restoration.
Our new results show that doing nothing could be even worse than previously thought, meaning more carbon finance may be unlocked. Perversely, bad news for England’s peatlands could bring about the money needed to save them.
Thankfully, through measures such as the government’s Nature for Climate scheme and ongoing investment in fundamental peatland science, the UK has something of a head start in peatland restoration. Techniques that were once trialled in small areas are now being rolled out across whole landscapes.
Jonathan Ritson
The Great North Bog initiative, as one example, has linked together restoration organisations, researchers and landowners to deliver restoration across four national parks and three national landscapes. This is truly the scale that is needed if the UK is serious about meeting its climate targets.
More will be required, however, as huge swathes of peatland remain in a degraded state. While bleak messages like those in our new study could lead to resignation about the effects of climate change, there is an alternative way of looking at it: we must show how bad things could get if we don’t do anything, and then see this as a call to action.
Jonathan Ritson has received funding from charities delivering peatland restoration.
– ref. Most of Britain’s peat bogs could stop forming new peat as the climate changes – new study – https://theconversation.com/most-of-britains-peat-bogs-could-stop-forming-new-peat-as-the-climate-changes-new-study-248515
