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Category: Evening Report

  • MIL-Evening Report: Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.0 – a slight widening of the competition since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49.2–46.2.

    President Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2.

    There will be a debate on Tuesday evening US time between the vice-presidential candidates, Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance. Vice-presidential debates in previous elections have not had a significant influence on the contest.

    The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

    The Electoral College is biased to Trump relative to the national popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

    In Silver’s polling averages, Harris leads Trump by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). If Harris wins all these states, she is likely to win the Electoral College by at least a 276–262 margin. Trump is ahead by less than a point in North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Georgia (16), and if Harris wins both, she wins by 308–230.

    In Silver’s model, Harris has a 56% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% last Monday but down from her peak of 58% two days ago. Earlier this month, there were large differences in win probability between Silver’s model and the FiveThirtyEight model, which was more favourable to Harris. But these models have nearly converged, with FiveThirtyEight now giving Harris a 59% win probability.

    There are still more than five weeks until election day, so polls could change in either Trump’s or Harris’ favour by then. Harris’ one to two point leads in the key states are tenuous, and this explains why Trump is still rated a good chance to win.

    Silver wrote on September 1 that polls in 2020 and 2016 were biased against Trump, but polls in 2012 were biased against Barack Obama. In the last two midterm elections (2022 and 2018), polls have been good. It’s plausible there will be a polling error this year, but which candidate such an error would favour can’t be predicted.

    On Sunday, Silver said if there was a systematic error of three or four points in the polls in either Trump’s or Harris’ favour, that candidate would sweep all the swing states and easily win the Electoral College. There are other scenarios in which one candidate underperforms the polls with some demographics but overperforms with other demographics.

    I wrote about the US election for The Poll Bludger last Thursday, and also covered bleak polls and byelection results in Canada for the governing centre-left Liberals ahead of an election due by October 2025, a dreadful poll for UK Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the new French prime minister, a German state election and a socialist win in Sri Lanka’s presidential election.

    Upwardly revised economic data

    Last Thursday, a revised estimate of June quarter US GDP was released. There was a large upward revision in real disposable personal income compared to the previously reported figures. This has resulted in the personal savings rate being revised up to 4.9% in July from the previously reported 2.9%, and it was 4.8% in August.

    With these upward revisions, Silver’s economic index that averages six indicators is now at +0.25, up from +0.09. As the incumbent party’s candidate, a better economy than was previously believed should help Harris.

    Coalition gains narrow lead in Essential

    In Australia, a national Essential poll, conducted on September 18–22 from a sample of 1,117 people, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead (including undecided voters) after a 48–48 tie in early September. It’s the Coalition’s first lead in the Essential poll since mid-July.

    Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (down one), 8% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (steady).

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up five points since August to –5, with 47% disapproving and 42% approving. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down one to net zero.

    On social media regulations, 48% thought them too weak, 43% about right and 8% too tough. By 67–17, voters supported imposing an age limit for children to access social media (68–15 in July). By 71–12, voters supported making doxing (the public release of personally identifiable data) a criminal offence (62–19 in February).

    By 49–18, voters supported Labor’s Help to Buy scheme, and by 57–13 they supported the build-to-rent scheme. The questions give detail that few voters would know.

    Voters were told the Liberals and Greens had combined to delay Labor’s housing policies in the senate. By 48–22, voters thought the Liberals and Greens should pass the policies and argue for their own policies at the next election, rather than block Labor’s policies. Greens voters supported passing by 55–21.

    Labor keeps narrow lead in Morgan

    A national Morgan poll, conducted September 16–22 from a sample of 1,662 people, gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead, unchanged from the September 9–15 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up 1.5), 12.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (down 0.5), 9.5% independents (down 0.5) and 3.5% others (down 0.5).

    The headline figure is based on respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by an unchanged 52–48.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states – https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-the-slight-favourite-to-win-us-election-as-she-narrowly-leads-in-key-states-239735

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Unwritten rules, nostalgia and subtle rebellion: how school photos capture childhood and the changing times

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cherine Fahd, Associate Head of School, School of Design, University of Technology Sydney

    A 1935 school photograph taken in Kandos, NSW. Author provided, courtesy of the Kandos Museum.

    In the town of Kandos, New South Wales, there’s the local Kandos Museum run by volunteers. The museum holds relics from the cement works that once defined the town, but there are other treasures, too.

    As part of the Cementa24 festival, I became fixated on the museum’s collection of school photos. Neatly organised into ring-bound folders by the volunteers, the group portraits span decades of students from Kandos Public School and Kandos High School, from 1924 through to the 1990s.

    A photo album made by volunteers at the Kandos Museum.
    Author provided

    I enlarged and cropped some of these photos to turn them into street posters to scatter around town. I asked permission before sticking a few outside the local pub, the radio station, the post office and the op shop. I spot the locals smiling as they pass them, stopping to look for someone they know. I watch them point at the pictures and hear them naming names.

    Working on this project, I can’t stop thinking about the weight of these photographic rituals. School photos aren’t just memories; they hold social histories. Through them, you can trace changes in hairstyles, fashion, attitudes and even migration – yet there’s something homogeneous and unchangeable about how they’re made.

    School photo rules

    There’s always a physical hierarchy in these photos. The photographer organises the group to ensure compositional acuity. The students are lined up in rows, with tall people in the back and shorter people in front – evenly spaced, arranged by height and symmetry.

    When was the rule made that says this is how a group should look? Balanced, orderly and with everyone fitting neatly into place, whether they socially do or not. Somehow I always ended up on the edge of the middle row. The social dynamics of the playground found their way into the organisation of our bodies, forever captured in a split second.

    A photo of Kandos’ 5th Form, 1967.
    Author provided, courtesy of the Kandos Museum

    Looking at the Kandos photos from the 1940s through to the 1970s, then at my children’s photos from 2013 to 2024, and my own school photos in the 1980s and ‘90s, I can see the difference in public, private and catholic school uniforms. I can see the difference in racial diversity (or lack thereof) between a small regional town, inner-city Sydney and suburban southwest Sydney. I can also see how much photographic technology has changed.

    Despite this, the organisational structure of the school photo remains the same. The kids still stand stiffly in their rows, with identical tunics and ties. Standing too close, someone’s elbow digs into someone else’s side.

    As a photographer now, I often think about these school photos and the rituals that have remained largely unchanged in Australia. Every year, kids are shuffled onto tiered steps. Those in the front put their knees together, hands in laps, while the girls must “try to look like ladies”. Then there are the “nobodies” in the middle row (or is that just me reading into it?)

    The perils of posing

    Posing for school photos can be complicated. One year my daughter came home from school and declared the photographer was sexist because he made all the girls sit in the front row while the boys got to stand. I asked her why sitting was sexist. She couldn’t explain – she was eight years old – but she certainly felt the power difference between sitting with your knees pressed together and standing tall.

    And what about the solo portrait? I still think about my kindergarten class from 1979. The group photo was fine. I was happy, standing next to my new best friend. But my solo portrait was a disaster. I looked possessed, my eyes half-closed, lashes blurred, caught mid-blink.

    My mother didn’t buy the solo photo, but she kept the group one. After that I promised myself it would never happen again. I told myself every year: “don’t blink, don’t blink”. Back then, photography was on film. There were no re-dos, no instant feedback, no photoshop and no AI. Once the camera clicked, that was it.

    ‘Don’t blink, don’t blink,’ I’d think, while trying to keep my eyes open.
    Author provided

    At the end of primary school, I’d visit my best friend’s house and envy the neat, chronological line of her school photos framed on her kitchen wall. Year by year, there she was, changing just slightly – a slow, steady record of growing up. I didn’t know why, but seeing framed evidence of time passing made me emotional. Maybe it was the certainty of the way her life was so neatly documented.

    My own school photos never made it to the wall in such a tidy fashion. But they did make it into my father’s wallet, my mother’s purse, in frames above the piano, on the fridge, in photo albums and in many a drawer.

    Small acts of rebellion

    The 1950s photos are formal and solemn. Back then you stood straight, faced the camera and no one smiled too much. By the 1970s and ’80s, the kids started to smirk – with hair loosened, mullets, and bodies shifting like they were trying to resist the pose. In one photo, the basketball team boys have their shoes off, feet raised above the blistering asphalt in the summer heat. The rules were still there, but you can see them pushing back.

    Bare feet raised in a photo of the Kandos High School Open basketball team, 1975.
    Author provided, courtesy of the Kandos Museum.

    What if we invited the rituals to change? What if students could self-organise, be silly, pull faces, wear their own clothes, and resist gender binaries and institutional uniformity?

    Some of the photos in the Kandos albums hint at this potential for small acts of rebellion. There’s the girl pulling a face, one laughing in profile. In one photo there’s a kid wearing a non-regulation jumper, and another in which they were clearly allowed to be silly because the teacher is laughing too.

    Photographic rebellion in the class of 1996.
    Author provided, courtesy of the Kandos Museum.

    In the pre-digital era, these small mishaps and moments of failure were captured unpolished and unfiltered. Those are the images I find myself drawn to; these are often the best ones. They reveal how uncomfortable it can be being photographed and how forced a pose can feel. Shirking a smile and a stiff stance is maybe the only power we have in that brief moment.

    Cherine Fahd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Unwritten rules, nostalgia and subtle rebellion: how school photos capture childhood and the changing times – https://theconversation.com/unwritten-rules-nostalgia-and-subtle-rebellion-how-school-photos-capture-childhood-and-the-changing-times-239190

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Autistic people and those with ADHD are more likely to have eating disorders. Here’s why – and how this affects their treatment

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Breanna Lepre, Lecturer in Nutrition and Dietetics, The University of Queensland

    BearFotos/Shutterstock

    More than 1.1 million Australians are estimated to be living with an eating disorder. Around one-third of these people are neurodivergent.

    So why are neurodivergent people, such as autistic people and those with ADHD, more likely to experience eating disorders than the broader population? And how does this impact their treatment?

    First, what is neurodivergence?

    Neurodivergence, or the state of being neurodivergent, is a term for people whose cognitive functioning differs from what society considers “typical”. Many conditions broadly fall under neurodivergence, including (but not limited to):

    • autism
    • attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)
    • dyslexia
    • Tourette’s syndrome.

    Our understanding of neurodivergence has come a long way. Neurodivergence used to be considered a linear “spectrum” ranging from less to more neurodivergent.

    We now know every neurodivergent person will have a unique experience across a range of dimensions. This includes sensory processing, motor abilities and executive functioning (working memory, cognitive flexibility and inhibition).

    Conceptualising these differences ends up looking more like a colour wheel.

    What are eating disorders?

    Eating disorders are complex and potentially life-threatening mental health conditions. They cause persistent and significant disturbances in thoughts, feelings and behaviours related to body weight, food and/or eating.

    Many factors are likely to contribute to the development of an eating disorder. But research shows neurodivergent people are disproportionately affected.

    One review found around 22.9% of autistic people had an eating disorder, compared with 2% in the general population. In another review, people with ADHD were four times more likely to be diagnosed with an eating disorder than people without ADHD.

    Why are eating disorders more common among neurodivergent people?

    Science has not pinpointed an exact reason why eating disorders are more common among neurodivergent people. But here’s what we know so far.

    Neurodivergent people are more likely to experience feeding difficulties, sensory sensitivities and disordered eating.

    A United States study assessing the eating behaviour of neurodivergent children found around 70% of autistic children displayed “atypical” eating behaviours. This includes food selectivity and a hypersensitivity to food textures. It compares with 4.8% of neurotypical children.

    Similarly, autistic children may choose or reject foods based on texture more than other children. They may prefer foods with a consistent texture, bland taste and neutral colour (for example, chicken nuggets, plain pasta and rice).

    Selective eating (having limited accepted foods and food aversions) has been associated with avoidant/restrictive food intake disorder (ARFID). This is an eating disorder characterised by avoidance and aversion to food and eating that is not related to body image. ARFID is commonly associated with autism, with one study estimating 21% of autistic people will experience it in their lifetime.

    Some neurodivergent people have food aversions.
    goodbishop/Shutterstock

    Other neurodivergent traits, such as perfectionism and a preference for routine, have been associated with disordered eating and eating disorders.

    Research on adolescent girls found those with anorexia nervosa are more likely to exhibit neurodivergent (in this case, autistic) traits and behaviours. These include developing rules, resistance to change and a hyperfocus on body weight. These features are commonly seen in anorexia nervosa, an eating disorder characterised by restricted food intake, an intense fear of weight gain and body image disturbances.

    Meanwhile, impulsivity symptoms in ADHD have been associated with binge eating disorder. This can involve recurrent episodes of eating large amounts of food in a short period of time. Impulsivity may also be linked to bulimia nervosa, characterised by compensatory behaviours to prevent weight gain after binge eating (such as exessive exercise).

    Some studies indicate a link between ADHD, alexithymia (difficulty experiencing, identifying and expressing emotions) and overeating behaviours such as emotional eating.

    Finally, neurodivergent people are more likely to identify as part of the LGBTQIA+ community, experience trauma and also have a mental health condition. Each of these considerations increases the likelihood someone will experience an eating disorder.

    How does this affect treatment?

    Despite the overlap between eating disorders and neurodivergence, current treatment approaches don’t meet the diverse needs of those affected.

    Eating disorder treatment often has moderate success at best. For neurodivergent people, the outcomes are worse than for their neurotypical counterparts.

    Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), a broad range of treatments based on the interaction between thoughts, feelings and behaviours, is less beneficial for neurodivergent people. Yet this is often part of treatment for eating disorders. Autistic women have suggested CBT is less accessible due to its blanket approach and the assumption they have the skills needed to benefit.

    There have been calls from organisations such as the National Eating Disorders Collaboration and lived experience advocates to improve access to neurodiversity-affirming care models for neurodivergent people affected by eating disorders.

    Such care recognised and safely accommodates the multiple ways neurodivergence is related to feeding and eating behaviour.

    Research suggests eating disorder treatment can be successfully adapted for neurodivergent people based on the following principles:

    1. equal partnership. Including neurodivergent people as equal partners in their care and as decision-makers, and elevating their own experiences

    2. embracing and celebrating differences. Neurodivergent traits should not be considered a deficit, or something to be “treated” or “fixed”. Rather, neurodivergent traits should be celebrated to nourish a positive sense of identity

    3. accommodations. Neurodivergent traits and preferences are respected and accommodated. As an example, this might include reducing sensory inputs (the smell, sounds and lights) in a dining area, or a meal plan that is predictable and considers a person’s sensory sensitivities.

    Treatment for eating disorders should also be gender-affirming (interventions that support and affirm someone’s gender identity) and trauma-informed.

    If this article has raised issues for you, free resources and support is available from the Butterfly National Helpline by calling 1800 ED HOPE (1800 33 4673), or by visiting Eating Disorders Neurodiversity Australia or Autism Connect.

    Breanna Lepre works for The University of Queensland and is a member of Dietitians Australia. Breanna is neurodivergent and has lived experience of an eating disorder.

    Lauren Ball works for The University of Queensland and receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

    – ref. Autistic people and those with ADHD are more likely to have eating disorders. Here’s why – and how this affects their treatment – https://theconversation.com/autistic-people-and-those-with-adhd-are-more-likely-to-have-eating-disorders-heres-why-and-how-this-affects-their-treatment-238759

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Snakes are waking up. What should you do if you’re bitten? And what if you’re a long way from help?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hamish Bradley, Adjunct Lecturer, Anaesthetist and Aeromedical Retrieval Specialist, The University of Western Australia

    RugliG/Shutterstock

    From the creeks that wind through inner city Melbourne to the far outback in Western Australia, snake season is beginning.

    Over the cooler months snakes have been in state of brumation. This is very similar to hibernation and characterised by sluggishness and inactivity. As warmer conditions return both snakes and humans become more active in the outdoors, leading to an increased likelihood of interaction. This may happen when people are hiking, dog-walking or gardening.

    The risk of being bitten by a snake is exceptionally small, but knowing basic first aid could potentially save your, or another person’s, life.

    When a snake bites

    Snake bite envenomation (when venom enters the blood stream) is a significant issue in Australia, with 3,000 cases annually and an average of two deaths.

    Snake bite should always be treated as a life-threatening emergency, and if you are bitten in rural or remote Australia, you will often receive an air medical emergency pick up to a regional or metropolitan hospital for advanced care.

    The effects of snake bites vary, depending on the species of snake and first aid measures undertaken.

    Australian standard first aid guidelines include:

    • calling for help (dialing 000 or activating an emergency beacon)
    • applying a pressure immobilisation bandage
    • resting.

    Why pressure is important

    Snake venom is carried within the lymphatic system. This is a collection of tiny tubes throughout the body that return fluid outside of blood vessels back to the blood stream.

    Muscles act as a “pump” to help the fluid move through this system. That’s why being still, or immobilisation, is vital to slow the spread of venom.

    A firm pressure immobilisation bandage, applied as tight as you would for a sprained ankle, will compress these tubes and help limit the venom’s spread.

    Ideally bandage the entire limb on which the bite occurred and apply a splint to help further with immobilisation. It is very important that the blood supply to the limb is not limited by this bandage.

    Never attempt to capture or kill the snake for identification. This risks further bites and is not required for specialist care. The decision about when to give antivenom (if any) is based on the geographical location, symptoms, the results of blood tests and discussion with a toxicologist.

    The tyranny of distance

    People living in rural and remote locations may also have limited access to health care, including access to ambulance services, snake bite first aid such as bandages and splints, and to antivenom.

    Availability and the prompt use of antivenom have been identified as crucial factors in the effective treatment of snake envenomation – but not studied in detail.

    Over one year (as a component of a larger three-year study) we collected information on the pre-hospital care and in-flight care with the Royal Flying Doctors Service Western Operations.

    During this time, 85 people from regional, rural, remote and very remote Western Australia were flown by Royal Flying Doctor Service to hospital for suspected or confirmed snake bites. Reassuringly, only five of these patients (6%) ultimately received a toxicologist’s diagnosis of envenomation.

    To move or not to move?

    Troublingly, 38 (45%) of the 85 snake bite victims continued to move around and be active following their suspected snake bite. This raises questions about whether people lack knowledge of first-aid guidelines, or whether this is a consequence of being isolated, with limited access to health care.

    Either way, our as-yet-unpublished research highlights the vulnerability of Australia’s rural and remote people. All patients eventually received a pressure immobilisation bandage, with an average time from bite to application of 38 minutes. Three quarters of the patients made their way to health-care site by foot, or private car, arriving on average 65 minutes after the bite.



    Read more:
    Breakthroughs and setbacks on the hunt for a universal snakebite antivenom – podcast

    Rest and compression with a bandage are vital elements of snakebite first aid.
    Microgen/Shutterstock

    What needs to change?

    Our results indicate rural and remote Australians need innovative health-care solutions beyond the metropolitan guidelines, particularly when outside ambulance service areas.

    Basic snake bite first aid education needs to be not only reiterated but also a pragmatic approach is required in these geographically isolated locations. This would involve being vigilant, staying safe and, when isolated, always carrying emergency technology to call for help.

    The authors wish to acknowledge the efforts required through this research project as it continues, including by Fergus Gardiner, Kieran Hennelly, Rochelle Menzies, James Anderson, Alex McMillan and John Fisher. Hamish Bradley is an Aeromedical Retrieval Specialist and Principal Investigator in this project.

    Alice Richardson receives funding from NHMRC.

    Breeanna Spring is affiliated with Australian College of Midwives, Australian College of Nursing.

    Hamish Bradley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Snakes are waking up. What should you do if you’re bitten? And what if you’re a long way from help? – https://theconversation.com/snakes-are-waking-up-what-should-you-do-if-youre-bitten-and-what-if-youre-a-long-way-from-help-234365

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New research reveals why the mighty Darling River is drying up – and it’s not just because we’re taking too much water

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

    Water flows in mainland Australia’s most important river system, the Murray-Darling Basin, have been declining for the past 50 years. The trend has largely been blamed on water extraction, but our new research shows another factor is also at play.

    We investigated why the Darling River, in the northern part of the basin, has experienced devastating periods of low flow, or no flow, since the 1990s. We found it was due to a decrease in rainfall in late autumn, caused by climate change.

    The research reveals how climate change is already affecting river flows in the basin, even before water is extracted for farm irrigation and other human uses.

    Less rain will fall in the Darling River catchment as climate change worsens. This fact must be central to decisions about how much water can be taken from this vital natural system.

    A quick history of the Darling

    Murray Darling catchment map.
    Martyman/Wikimedia, CC BY

    The Darling River runs from the town of Bourke in northwest New South Wales, south to the Murray River in Victoria. Together, the two rivers form the Murray-Darling river system.

    The Indigenous name for the Darling River is the Baaka. For at least 30,000 years the river has been an Indigenous water resource. On the river near Wilcannia, remnants of fish traps and weirs built by Indigenous people can still be found today.

    The Darling River was a major transport route from the late 19th to the early 20th century.

    In recent decades, the agriculture industry has extracted substantial quantities of water from the Darling’s upstream tributaries, to irrigate crops and replenish farm dams. Water has also been extracted from Menindee Lakes, downstream in the Darling, to benefit the environment and supply the regional city of Broken Hill.

    A river in trouble

    Natural weather variability means water levels in the Darling River have always been irregular, even before climate change began to be felt.

    In recent years, however, water flows have become even more irregular. This has caused myriad environmental problems.

    At Menindee Lakes, for example, fish have died en masse – incidents experts say is ultimately due to a lack of water in the river system.

    Periods of heavy rain in recent years have dramatically improved water flows.

    But in between those episodes, water levels and quality have declined, due to factors such as droughts, expanded water extraction, salinity and pollution from farms.

    Compounding the droughts, smaller flows that once replenished the system have now greatly reduced. Our research sought to determine why.

    What we found

    We examined rainfall and water flows in the Darling River from 1972 until July 2024. This includes from the 1990s – a period when global warming accelerated.

    We found a striking lack of short rainfall periods in April and May in the Darling River from the 1990s. The reduced rainfall led to long periods of very low, or no flow, in the river.

    Since the 1990s under climate change, shifts in atmospheric circulation have generated fewer rain-producing systems. This has led to less rain in inland southeast Australia in autumn.

    The river system particularly needs rainfall in the late autumn months, to replenish rivers after summer.

    The periods of little rain were often followed by extreme floods. This is a problem because the rain fell on dry soils and soaked in, rather than running into the river. This reduced the amount of water available for the environment and human uses.

    In addition to the fall in autumn rainfall, we found the number of extreme annual rainfall totals for all seasons has also fallen since the 1990s.

    We also examined monthly river heights at Bourke, Wilcannia and Menindee. We found periods of both high and low water levels before the mid-1990s. But the low water levels at all three locations from 2000 onwards were the lowest in the period.

    Ensuring water for all

    Australia is the driest inhabited continent on Earth. Ensuring steady water supplies for human use has always been challenging.

    Falls in Darling River water levels in recent decades have largely been attributed to water extraction for farm dams, irrigation and town use.

    But as our research shows, the lack of rainfall in the river catchment – as a result of climate change – is also significant. The problem will worsen as climate change accelerates.

    This creates a huge policy challenge. As others have noted, the Murray-Darling Basin Plan does not properly address climate change when determining how much water can be taken by towns and farmers.

    Both the environment and people will benefit from ensuring the rivers of the basin maintain healthy flows into the future. As our research indicates, this will require decision-makers to consider and adapt to climate change.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New research reveals why the mighty Darling River is drying up – and it’s not just because we’re taking too much water – https://theconversation.com/new-research-reveals-why-the-mighty-darling-river-is-drying-up-and-its-not-just-because-were-taking-too-much-water-239923

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Qatar Airways is set to acquire 25% of Virgin Australia. Who will be the winners?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dr Rico Merkert, Professor in Transport and Supply Chain Management and Deputy Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney

    Peter Gudella/Shutterstock

    Qatar Airways has announced plans to buy a 25% minority stake in Virgin Australia from its owner, US private equity firm Bain Capital.

    The two airlines have already had a strong relationship as “codeshare partners” since 2022. Codesharing is where airlines agree to sell seats on each other’s flights. This new announcement, however, is a big step up.

    All of this will, of course, be subject to approval from both Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). But there could be a range of winners if it goes ahead.

    Perhaps most importantly for Australian travellers, the move means Virgin Australia will be able to compete as it once did on long-haul international routes.

    This is because a proposed “wet lease” agreement – in which one airline provides full aircraft, crew and relevant services to another – could see Virgin Australia start operating its own flights from Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney to Doha as early as mid-2025.

    It’s also a win for Bain Capital, which had been trying to offload some of its stake in the airline after acquiring it in crisis in 2020.

    So with the prospect of a renewed international foothold for Virgin Australia, could we soon see more competition – and real consumer benefits – on the “Kangaroo Route” between Australia and Europe?

    Clearer skies for Qatar?

    As you might remember, Qatar Airways’ previous attempts to expand in Australia haven’t always gone smoothly.

    Today’s announcement comes little more than a year after Transport Minister Catherine King controversially blocked a request by Qatar to double the number of flights its state-owned airline Qatar Airways was allowed to fly into major Australian airports.

    Given the intense public backlash to this decision, it’s possible a renewed application by Qatar would have been more successful. A large expansion of flights by Turkish Airlines was later quietly approved.

    But this new deal may diminish the need to try again. By wet-leasing wide-body aircraft so Virgin Australia can operate its “own” long-haul routes to Doha (connecting into Europe), Qatar will effectively bypass the need to get government approval for the additional flights.



    Read more:
    What will putting the interests of Qantas ahead of Qatar Airways cost? $1 billion per year and a new wave of protectionism of legacy carriers

    The ‘Kangaroo Route’ still needs more flights

    Back in 2023, my calculations suggested Qatar’s application to expand should have been approved. Capacity on the Kangaroo Route was only back to 70% of pre-COVID levels. That meant the major players operating flights – including the Qantas–Emirates alliance – could charge significantly more than before the pandemic.

    Using the latest flight schedule data, we can show that the capacity between Australia and the Middle East is still 17% below what it was before the pandemic. If Virgin Australia’s proposed long-haul re-entry goes ahead, we could see much more capacity on these routes, and a formidable challenger to the Emirates–Qantas arrangement.



    Read more:
    What will putting the interests of Qantas ahead of Qatar Airways cost? $1 billion per year and a new wave of protectionism of legacy carriers

    Likely a win for Virgin and Qatar

    It’s easy to see why Virgin and Qatar might be excited. The deal will extend Virgin Australia’s reach – and that of its frequent flyers – into Europe and other destinations via Doha. But this goes both ways, and could also mean more demand on its domestic network.

    Similarly, the additional flights into Doha will feed Qatar Airways’ network, an airline that seems to be going from strength to strength.

    Despite historical troubles at Doha’s main airport, Qatar Airways is now one of the world’s largest airlines. It has once again been ranked as the world’s best airline by the independent air transport rating organisation Skytrax.

    Both airlines were also keen to point out benefits of the partnership they said would go beyond additional services and increasing competition in the Australian market.

    These include the potential to work together towards various sustainability initiatives and on developing Western Sydney’s aviation ecosystem, providing exciting new opportunities for employment and training.

    Not yet a done deal

    However, they’re still a long way from the finishing line. Whether this deal will actually materialise remains to be seen.

    It is worth noting this is not the first time Virgin Australia has been part-owned by an airline in the Middle East. Before Virgin Australia’s collapse into administration in April 2020, Etihad held a 21% equity stake.

    Further, it remains to be seen what aircraft Virgin Australia will actually get access to and how the service will be perceived. Qatar Airways is guaranteed a transaction win through the wet-lease, without taking on the brand and profit risks of operating these services.

    How much concern this will stir at Qantas also remains to be seen, but one thing is clear. Project Sunrise – Qantas’ plan to bypass the Middle Eastern hubs and connect Australia directly with Europe – could soon become much more important.

    Emirates is unlikely to emerge as the winner of this move, now set to face increased competition not only on services connecting Australia with the Middle East, but also across its broader network through Dubai.

    Qatar Airways acquiring a stake in Virgin Australia will also create interesting dynamics within the Oneworld Alliance, in which both Qantas and Qatar Airways are key partners. There are certainly interesting times ahead.

    Dr Rico Merkert receives funding from the ARC and various industry partners. He loves to work with and for airlines, including Qantas and Virgin Australia.

    – ref. Qatar Airways is set to acquire 25% of Virgin Australia. Who will be the winners? – https://theconversation.com/qatar-airways-is-set-to-acquire-25-of-virgin-australia-who-will-be-the-winners-240204

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia may be facing another La Niña summer. We’ve found a way to predict them earlier, to help us prepare

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mandy Freund, Lecturer, Climate Science Geography, The University of Melbourne

    Meteorologists are again predicting a possible La Niña this summer, which means Australia may face wetter and cooler conditions than normal.

    It would be the fourth La Niña in Australia in five years, and highlights the need for Australians to prepare for what may be an extreme weather season.

    Typically, a La Niña or its counterpart, El Niño, signals its arrival earlier in the year. Signs of this potential La Niña are emerging fairly late. That’s where new research by my colleagues and I may help in future.

    La Niña and El Niño explained

    La Niña and its opposite phase, El Niño, are created by changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean’s equatorial region. Together, the two phenomena are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

    The oscillation is said to be in the positive phase during an El Niño and the negative phase during a La Niña. When sitting between the two, the cycle is in neutral phase.

    Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization said there was a 60% chance of La Niña conditions emerging by year’s end.

    In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put the likelihood at 71%. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is in “watch” mode, predicting a 50% chance of a La Niña weather pattern forming later this year.

    La Niña occurs when strengthening winds change currents on the ocean surface, pulling cool water up from the deep.

    The winds also cause warm surface waters in the western Pacific and north of Australia, bringing increased rainfall and clouds. This usually means above-average rainfall and cooler temperatures for Australia, particularly in the east and north.

    Conversely, an El Niño weather pattern generally brings hotter temperatures across Australia, and less rainfall in the east and north.

    The Bureau of Meteorology is in La Niña ‘watch mode’.
    Bureau of Meteorology

    Paths of destruction

    La Niña or El Niño events can cause devastation around the world.

    The El Niño in 2015–16, for example, caused crops to fail and affected the food security and nutrition of almost 60 million people globally.

    In Australia, El Niño events can bring increased risk of drought, bushfires and heatwaves, and water shortages.

    Meanwhile, rainfall associated with La Niña conditions can lead to greater crop yield. But particularly heavy rainfall can wash crops away. It also heightens flood risks for some communities.

    These far-reaching impacts mean it’s essential to plan ahead when a La Niña or El Niño is on the cards. But predicting these events has always been tricky.

    Both types of events usually develop in the Southern Hemisphere autumn, peak in late spring or summer, and weaken by the next autumn. But it’s now late spring without a clear La Niña declaration. Why the delay?

    Climate change is one factor. The Bureau of Meteorology says as oceans absorb heat from global warming, it’s harder to spot the specific warming patterns linked to La Niña.

    The sheer complexity of the ocean-atmosphere system adds to the difficulty. The computer models used to predict El Niño and La Niña are improving all the time.
    But scientists still need more information on deep ocean processes, and how winds affect the oscillation.

    Predictions are hardest during the Southern Hemisphere’s autumn. That’s because the cycle then is very susceptible to change – teetering at a point where either a La Niña or El Niño could develop.

    That’s why the earliest an El Niño or La Niña can be predicted is usually around May or June.

    But new research offers a way to predict the events much earlier – and start preparing if necessary.

    Better, earlier forecasts

    The study, which I led, assessed the likelihood of La Niña or El Niño events occurring in succession – either in the eastern or central region of the Pacific Ocean.

    This distinction is important. For Australia, El Niño and La Niña events peaking in the Central Pacific, close to our continent, have greater impacts here compared to those peaking in the east, closer to South America.

    We analysed weather observations, and the sequence of past El Niño and La Niña events, over the past 150 years. We also examined climate models for future changes in transitions between El Niño and La Niña events.

    From this, we determined the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña occurring in two consecutive years.

    We found most El Niño events are followed by neutral conditions the next year (with a likelihood of 37–56%).

    But La Niña behaves differently. In 40% of cases, a Central Pacific El Niño could follow an Eastern Pacific La Niña. And there is a 28% chance of two consecutive La Niña events in the Central Pacific.

    These results allow for more advanced predictions. By identifying patterns in this way, the odds of an El Niño or La Niña can be predicted up to a year in advance.

    El Niño or La Niña are the result of complex interactions between winds and sea in the Pacific Ocean.
    Shutterstock

    Looking ahead

    So, what does our research suggest for Australia? Will a La Niña develop here this year?

    From September last year, Australia experienced a strong Eastern Pacific El Niño. So our findings suggest there is only a 17% chance of La Niña this year.

    If the La Niña arrives, it will likely peak in the Central Pacific, potentially affecting Australia rainfall. But overall, any La Niña that develops this late is likely to be weak and relatively short-lived.

    Our research also found that as climate change accelerates, the El Niño Southern Oscillation is likely to shift. For example, the odds of two consecutive El Niños peaking in the central Pacific region will likely increase. And we can expect fewer calm, neutral years between events.

    We hope our research enables more accurate, long-range forecasts, giving communities additional time to plan and prepare.

    Mandy Freund receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather

    – ref. Australia may be facing another La Niña summer. We’ve found a way to predict them earlier, to help us prepare – https://theconversation.com/australia-may-be-facing-another-la-nina-summer-weve-found-a-way-to-predict-them-earlier-to-help-us-prepare-239826

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s air and tourism industries need government-backed insolvency insurance. Here’s why

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Beirman, Adjunct Fellow Management & Tourism, University of Technology Sydney

    Australia has a long history of domestic airlines collapsing, often affecting thousands of travellers, yet the industry provides little or no recompense.

    Even the federal government’s recently released aviation discussion paper recognised the need for change by recommending important protections for passengers. These included making airlines honour refunds if flights were cancelled or significantly delayed.

    The 2024 Aviation White Paper included the most consumer friendly proposals in 30 years. However, there was one significant omission in the 156-page report.

    There was no mention of insolvency protection for airline passengers. To put it simply, if a domestic or international airline collapses there is little likelihood passengers who paid airfares will receive a refund.

    In most cases, passengers affected by airline collapses receive little or no compensation. Fewer than 20% of Australian domestic passengers pay for domestic travel insurance compared to the 90% of Australians who buy insurance when they fly internationally.

    A history of failed airlines

    Since 1990 we have seen the rise and fall of multiple Australian airlines. This includes Compass Mark 1, Compass Mark 2, Ansett Airlines, Impulse Air and Aussie Air.

    In May, Bonza collapsed after less than a year of operation. And more recently, services operated by REX (Regional Air Express) between capital cities stopped and its regional services are under pressure.

    Virgin and Qantas immediately volunteered to honour the inter-city bookings of some REX ticket holders. However, nearly all affected Bonza passengers lost their money because no other airlines flew the same routes.

    The risk of both domestic and international airline collapses affecting Australian travellers is real. Consumers are as entitled to be protected from that risk as they are from many other travel related risks.

    The UK and European approach

    The UK approach to insolvency insurance has worked well since 1973. The UK scheme is known as “ATOL” or Air Travel Operators Licence. It applies to package tour companies who sell air travel combined with land tours or accommodation

    This user-pays, government-guaranteed insurance cover is compulsory for all British travellers who book a package tour. It costs only A$5 per person. It guarantees a full refund and return flights to the passenger’s point of origin if the tour operator goes out of business.

    A similar scheme has operated in the European Union since 1990, its known as the European Package Travel Directive.

    As part of a 2024 book I co-edited with Bruce Prideaux, I focused on the collapse of the famous British tour operator, Thomas Cook in 2019.

    I also compared insolvency consumer protection in the UK with that of Australia and New Zealand.

    The Thomas Cook experience

    When Thomas Cook collapsed in the United Kingdom and Europe, 600,000 British and European Union passengers were fully refunded the cost of their tours and flown to their port of departure under their regions’ respective schemes. And the cost of their disrupted tours was refunded.

    Funding built into the UK scheme covered full refunds to affected passengers at negligible cost to government which guaranteed the scheme.

    By contrast, a far smaller collapse of two Australian based tour operators, Tempo Holidays and Bentours in September 2019 affected fewer than 1,000 passengers.

    However not all the affected travellers were refunded due to the limitations of the insolvency scheme run by what was then the Australian Federation of Travel Agents.

    Under this scheme travellers only receive insolvency protection if they pay by credit or debit card. There is a reliance on banks to refund if a tour operator becomes insolvent. If the passenger paid for their tour by cheque or cash, no refund applied.

    What Australia needs

    There are three key categories of business insolvency which affect travellers. The collapse of an airline, the collapse of a tour operator and the collapse of a travel agent.

    If the Australian government is genuinely interested in protecting travel consumers at minimal cost to the taxpayer we should be using the UK and European schemes as a model.

    A compulsory user-pays, government guaranteed insolvency protection scheme would cost the consumer very little and would be an ideal safety net for consumers in the event that their travel company goes bust.

    David Beirman is affiliated in an honorary basis with DFAT’s Consular Consulting Group, a stakeholder group which advises DFAT on government travel advisories and broader issues of tourism safety and security.

    – ref. Australia’s air and tourism industries need government-backed insolvency insurance. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/australias-air-and-tourism-industries-need-government-backed-insolvency-insurance-heres-why-239060

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: Experts want Albanese to lead on indoor air quality as part of pandemic planning

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    FOTOGRIN/Shutterstock

    Last month, a delegation led by Brendan Crabb, head of the Burnet Institute, a prestigious medical research body, met Anthony Albanese in the prime minister’s parliament house office.

    Its members, who included Lidia Morawska from Queensland University of Technology, a world-leading expert on air quality and health, also blitzed ministers and staffers. They were pitching for the federal government to spearhead a comprehensive policy on clean indoor air and for the issue to be put on the national cabinet’s agenda.

    They pointed out to Albanese that indoor air is an outlier in our otherwise comprehensive public health framework. Despite people spending the majority of their time inside, indoor air quality is mostly unregulated, in contrast to the standards that apply to, for example, food and water.

    There are multiple health and economic reasons to be concerned about this air quality but a major one is to limit the transmission of airborne diseases, such as COVID.

    For many of us, COVID has become just a bad memory, despite its lasting and mixed legacies. For instance, without the pandemic, fewer people would now be working from home. More small businesses would be flourishing in our CBDs. Arguably, fewer children would be trying to catch up from inadequate schooling.

    While the media have largely lost interest in COVID, and people are now rather blase about it, the disease is still taking a toll.

    In 2023 there were about 4,600 deaths attributed to COVID, and almost certainly more in reality, given Australia that year had 8,400 “excess deaths” (defined as actual deaths above expected deaths).

    Up to July this year there were 2,503 COVID deaths.

    In nursing homes, whilst survival rates from COVID are much improved with vaccination and antivirals, as of September 19, there were 117 active outbreaks with 59 new outbreaks in that past week. There had been 900 deaths for the year so far.

    Long COVID has become a serious issue, with varying respiratory, cardiac, cognitive and immunological symptoms. It is estimated between 200,000 and 900,000 people in Australia currently have long COVID.

    The Albanese government is presently awaiting the report it commissioned into how the COVID pandemic was handled.

    The inquiry has looked at the performance of the Morrison government, but its terms of reference didn’t include the states. That limits its usefulness, but there were politics involved, given high profile state Labor governments.

    Not that the state and territory leaders of that time are around anymore (apart from the ACT’s Andrew Barr). Those faces that became so familiar from their daily news conference have disappeared into the never-never: Victoria’s Dan Andrews, Western Australia’s Mark McGowan, New South Wales’ Gladys Berejiklian, Queensland’s Annastacia Palaszczuk.

    COVID variously made or tarnished leaders’ reputations. McGowan, in particular, reached stratospheric heights of popularity. Andrews deeply divided people.

    In general, however, COVID boosted support for leaders and increased public trust in them and in government. In times of uncertainty, the public looked to known institutions and to authority figures. Since then, trust has eroded again.

    Experts came into their own during the pandemic but then found themselves in the middle of the political bickering. In retrospect, some of them were wrong.

    In the broad, especially in terms of the death rate and the economy, Australia navigated the crisis well. But drill down, and the story is more complex, as documented by two leading economists, Steven Hamilton (based in Washington and connected to the Australian National University) and Richard Holden (from UNSW).

    In their just-published book, Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism, their bottom-line conclusion is that Australia was very impressive in its (vastly expensive) economic response but it was a mixed picture on the health side.

    While Australia was quick out of the blocks in closing the national border and bringing in other measures, it fell down dramatically on two fronts. The Morrison government failed to order a wide variety of vaccines and it failed to buy enough Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs).

    The “vaccine procurement strategy was an unmitigated disaster,” Hamilton and Holden write. This was not just “the greatest failure of the pandemic – it was arguably the greatest single public policy failure in Australian history”.

    “We put all our vaccine eggs in just two baskets”, both of which failed to differing degrees. This was “a terrible risk to take. Pandemics are times for insurance, not gambling,” they write.

    “And while our tax and statistical authorities marshalled their forces to operate much faster and more nimbly to serve the desperate needs of a government facing a once-in-a-century crisis, our medical regulatory complex repeatedly ignored international evidence and experience, and our political leaders capitulated to their advice. And then the prime minister told us that when it came to getting Australians vaccinated:‘it’s not a race’”.

    The failure to order every vaccine on the horizon meant when production or supply problems arose for those that were hoped for or on order, the rollout was delayed.

    After this bungle, “stunningly, we turned around and repeated these same mistakes all over again” by not obtaining and distributing freely massive numbers of RATs. In this failure, “our federal government showed the same lack of foresight, the same penny-wise but pound-foolish mindset that it had displayed in the vaccine rollout”.

    The authors blame Scott Morrison, then-health minister Greg Hunt, then-chief medical officer Brendan Murphy, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), and the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) for the health failures, which prolonged the lockdowns, cost lives and delayed reopening.

    Urging better preparation for the next pandemic, Hamilton and Holden have a list of suggestions. They stress we need to ensure we have mRNA vaccine manufacturing capability (on which there is fairly good progress). We must get vaccine procurement “right from the start” regardless of cost. Huge quantities of RATs should be procured as soon as they become available, ready to be used immediately.

    A complete overhaul of the medical-regulatory complex should be undertaken. As well, Australia should continue to invest in “economic infrastructure”. In the pandemic, the economic effort was facilitated by having a single touch payroll system. “The first obvious candidate for improvement is a real-time GST turnover reporting capability.”

    Perhaps a comprehensive indoor clean air policy could be added to the infrastructure list.

    The government’s review will have its own recommendations. Crabb and his colleagues hope they include attention to indoor air quality, following advice from the Chief Scientist and the National Science and Technology Council.

    Members of the delegation say they received an attentive hearing from the PM.

    Anna-Maria Arabia, chief executive of the Australian Academy of Science, and a member of the delegation, says Albanese “understood that improving indoor air quality is a cornerstone requirement to preparing for future pandemics and [he] was attuned to the practical implications of having good indoor air quality systems, including schools and workplaces being able to stay open and functional, reduce absenteeism and boost productivity”.

    What’s needed beyond awareness, however, is timely policy action. Pandemics don’t give much notice of their arrival.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: Experts want Albanese to lead on indoor air quality as part of pandemic planning – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-experts-want-albanese-to-lead-on-indoor-air-quality-as-part-of-pandemic-planning-239829

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In a new manifesto, OpenAI’s Sam Altman envisions an AI utopia – and reveals glaring blind spots

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hallam Stevens, Professor of Interdisciplinary Studies, James Cook University

    Ryan Carter Images / Shutterstock

    By now, many of us are probably familiar with artificial intelligence hype. AI will make artists redundant! AI can do lab experiments! AI will end grief!

    Even by these standards, the latest proclamation from OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, published on his personal website this week, seems remarkably hyperbolic. We are on the verge of “The Intelligence Age”, he declares, powered by a “superintelligence” that may just be a “few thousand days” away. The new era will bring “astounding triumphs”, including “fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, and the discovery of all of physics”.

    Altman and his company – which is trying to raise billions from investors and pitching unprecedently huge datacentres to the US government, while shedding key staff and ditching its nonprofit roots to give Altman a share of ownership – have much to gain from hype.

    However, even setting aside these motivations, it’s worth taking a look at some of the assumptions behind Altman’s predictions. On closer inspection, they reveal a lot about the worldview of AI’s biggest cheerleaders – and the blind spots in their thinking.

    Steam engines for thought?

    Altman grounds his marvellous predictions in a two-paragraph history of humanity:

    People have become dramatically more capable over time; we can already accomplish things now that our predecessors would have believed impossible.

    This is a story of unmitigated progress heading in a single direction, driven by human intelligence. The cumulative discoveries and inventions of science and technology – Altman reveals – have led us to the computer chip and, inexorably, to artificial intelligence which will take us the rest of the way to the future. This view owes much to the futuristic visions of the singularitarian movement.

    Such a story is seductively simple. If human intelligence has driven us to ever-greater heights, it is hard not to conclude that better, faster, artificial intelligence will drive progress even farther and higher.

    This is an old dream. In the 1820s, when Charles Babbage saw steam engines revolutionising human physical labour in England’s industrial revolution, he began to imagine constructing similar machines for automating mental labour. Babbage’s “analytical engine” was never built, but the notion that humanity’s ultimate achievement would entail mechanising thought itself has persisted.

    According to Altman, we’re now (almost) at that mountaintop.

    Deep learning worked – but for what?

    The reason we are so close to the glorious future is simple, Altman says: “deep learning worked”.

    Deep learning is a particular kind of machine learning that involves artificial neural networks, loosely inspired by biological nervous systems. It has certainly been surprisingly successful in a few domains: deep learning is behind models that have proven adept at stringing words together in more or less coherent ways, at generating pretty pictures and videos, and even contributing to the solutions of some scientific problems.

    So the contributions of deep learning are not trivial. They are likely to have significant social and economic impacts (both positive and negative).

    But deep learning “works” only for a limited set of problems. Altman knows this:

    humanity discovered an algorithm that could really, truly learn any distribution of data (or really the underlying “rules” that produce any distribution of data).

    That’s what deep learning does – that’s how it “works”. That’s important, and it’s a technique that can be applied to various domains, but it’s far from the only problem that exists.

    Not every problem is reducible to pattern matching. Nor do all problems provide the massive amounts of data that deep learning requires to do its work. Nor is this how human intelligence works.

    A big hammer looking for nails

    What is interesting here is the fact that Altman thinks “rules from data” will go so far towards solving all humanity’s problems.

    There is an adage that a person holding a hammer is likely to see everything as a nail. Altman is now holding a big and very expensive hammer.

    Deep learning may be “working” but only because Altman and others are starting to reimagine (and build) a world composed of distributions of data. There’s a danger here that AI is starting to limit, rather than expand, the kinds of problem-solving we are doing.

    What is barely visible in Altman’s celebration of AI are the expanding resources needed also for deep learning to “work”. We can acknowledge the great gains and remarkable achievements of modern medicine, transportation and communication (to name a few) without pretending these have not come at a significant cost.

    They have come at a cost both to some humans – for whom the gains of global north have meant diminishing returns – and to animals, plants and ecosystems, ruthlessly exploited and destroyed by the extractive might of capitalism plus technology.

    Although Altman and his booster friends might dismiss such views as nitpicking, the question of costs goes right to the heart of predictions and concerns about the future of AI.

    Altman is certainly aware that AI is facing limits, noting “there are still a lot of details we have to figure out”. One of these is the rapidly expanding energy costs of training AI models.

    Microsoft recently announced a US$30 billion fund to build AI data centres and generators to power them. The veteran tech giant, which has invested more than US$10 billion in OpenAI, has also signed a deal with owners of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant (infamous for its 1979 meltdown) to supply power for AI. The frantic spending suggests there may be a hint of desperation in the air.

    Magic or just magical thinking?

    Given the magnitude of such challenges, even if we accept Altman’s rosy view of human progress up to now, we might have to acknowledge that the past may not be a reliable guide to the future. Resources are finite. Limits are reached. Exponential growth can end.

    What’s most revealing about Altman’s post is not his rash predictions. Rather, what emerges is his sense of untrammelled optimism in science and progress.

    This makes it hard to imagine that Altman or OpenAI takes seriously the “downsides” of technology. With so much to gain, why worry about a few niggling problems? When AI seems so close to triumph, why pause to think?

    What is emerging around AI is less an “age of intelligence” and more an “age of inflation” – inflating resource consumption, inflating company valuations and, most of all, inflating the promises of AI.

    It’s certainly true that some of us do things now that would have seemed magic a century and a half ago. That doesn’t mean all the changes between then and now have been for the better.

    AI has remarkable potential in many domains, but imagining it holds the key to solving all of humanity’s problems – that’s magical thinking too.

    Hallam Stevens has previously received funding from the Ministry of Education (Singapore), the National Heritage Board (Singapore), the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Wenner-Gren Foundation.

    – ref. In a new manifesto, OpenAI’s Sam Altman envisions an AI utopia – and reveals glaring blind spots – https://theconversation.com/in-a-new-manifesto-openais-sam-altman-envisions-an-ai-utopia-and-reveals-glaring-blind-spots-239841

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Are private hospitals really in trouble? And is more public funding the answer?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Scott, Professor of Health Economics and Director, Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University

    Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

    A battle between private hospitals and private health insurers is playing out in public.

    At its heart is how much health insurers pay hospitals for their services, and whether that’s enough for private hospitals to remain viable.

    Concerns over the viability of the private health system have caught the attention of the federal government, which has launched a review into private hospitals that has yet to be made public.

    But are private hospitals really in trouble? And if so, is more public funding the answer?

    Private hospitals vs private health insurers

    Many private hospital operators have reported significant pressures since the start of the COVID pandemic, including staff shortages.

    Inflationary pressures have increased the costs of supplies and equipment, pushing up the costs of providing hospital care.

    Now, private hospitals have publicised their difficult contract negotiations with private health insurers in an attempt to gain support and help their case.

    Healthscope, which runs 38 for-profit private hospitals in Australia, has been threatening to end agreements with private health insurers.

    St Vincent’s, which operates ten not-for-profit private hospitals, announced it would end its contract with nib (one of Australia’s largest for-profit health insurers) but then reached an agreement.

    UnitingCare Queensland, which operates four private hospitals, announced it would end its contract with the Australian Health Service Alliance, which represents more than 20 small and medium non-profit private health insurers. Since then, the two parties have also kissed and made up.

    Why should we care?

    There are three reasons why viability of the private health sector affects us all, regardless of whether we have private health insurance or use private hospitals.

    1. Taxpayers subsidise the private health system

    Australian taxpayers subsidised private health insurance premiums by A$6.3 billion
    (in premium rebates) in 2021–22. Much of this makes its way to private hospitals. Medicare also subsidised fees for medical services delivered for private patients in private and public hospitals to the tune of $3.81 billion in 2023–24.

    But when the going gets tough, the private health sector (both hospitals and health insurers) turns to the government for more handouts.

    So we should be concerned about the value we currently get from our public investment into the private health system, and if more public investment is warranted.

    2. Public hospitals may be affected if private hospitals close

    Calls for greater government support for private health have long argued that a larger private hospital sector would help reduce pressures on the public system.

    Indeed, this was the justification for a series of incentives introduced from the late 1990s to support private health insurance in Australia.

    However, the extent of this is hotly debated. Recent evidence shows higher private health insurance coverage leads to only very small falls in waiting times in public hospitals.

    While it is possible the closure of a few private hospitals might lead some patients to seek care in public hospitals, this shift might not be that large and will not increase waiting times too much.

    3. Fewer private beds, but is that a bad thing?

    If unviable private hospitals close or merge, we’d expect to see fewer
    private hospital beds overall.

    Fewer private hospital beds is not necessarily bad news. Mergers of small private day hospitals, in particular, might make them more efficient and lead to lower costs, which in turn lowers health insurance premiums.

    We might also need fewer private beds. This is due to policies that try to shift health care out of hospitals into the community or the use of
    hospital-in-the-home schemes (where patients receive hospital-type care at home with the support of visiting health staff and/or telehealth). The private health insurers are supporting both.

    If a few small private hospitals close, this reflects the market adjusting to less demand for hospital care. Some of the closures have been for maternity wards but with falling birth rates, this also seems like an appropriate market adjustment.

    Falling birth rates mean less demand for maternity wards.
    christinarosepix/Shutterstock

    What do we know?

    Any objective data about what is happening in the private hospital sector is scarce. This is mainly because the Australian Bureau of Statistics has stopped a compulsory survey of all private hospitals. The latest data we have is from 2016–17.

    Health insurers are the largest payer of private hospitals and hence wield a considerable amount of negotiating power. In 2016–17, almost 80% of private hospitals’ income came from private health insurers. Health insurers have also increasingly become “active” purchasers of health care – not just passively paying insurance claims, but wanting to strike a good deal with private hospitals for their members to keep premiums (and costs) down, and profits high.

    Reports of hospitals closing ignore hospitals that are opening at the same time. But since 2016–17 there are no publicly reported data on the total number of private hospitals in Australia or changes over time.

    The latest figures we have show about half of all hospitals in Australia are private, and of these 62% are for-profit with the rest run by not-for-profit organisations (such as St Vincent’s).

    The main for-profit providers are Ramsay Health Care and Healthscope. Both have operations overseas and were in trouble before the COVID pandemic.

    Fast-forward to 2024 and the recent issues with contract negotiations suggests the financial situation of for-profit private hospitals might not have improved. So this could reflect a long-term issue with the sustainability of the private hospital sector.

    What are the options?

    The private health system already receives large public subsidies. So the crux of the current debate is whether the government should intervene again to prop up the private sector. Here are some options:

    • do nothing and let this stoush play out Closure and mergers of private hospitals might be good if smaller hospitals and wards are no longer needed and patients have other alternatives

    • introduce more regulation Negotiations between small groups of private hospitals and very large dominant private health insurers may not be efficient. If the insurers have significant market power they can force small groups of private hospitals into submission. Some private hospital groups may be negotiating with many different health insurers at the same time, which can be costly. Regulation of exactly how these negotiations happen could make the process more efficient and create a more level playing field

    • change how private hospitals are paid Public hospitals are essentially paid the same national price for each procedure they provide. This provides incentives for efficiency as the price is fixed and so if their costs are below the price, they can make a surplus. Private hospitals could also be funded this way, which could remove much of the costs of contract negotiations with private hospitals. Instead, private hospitals would be free to focus on other issues such as the number and quality of procedures, and providing high-value health care.

    How do we help private hospitals become more efficient? Regulating prices and contract negotiations are a start.
    Kitreel/Shutterstock

    What next?

    Revisiting the regulation of prices and contract negotiations between private hospitals and private health insurers could potentially help the private hospital sector to be more efficient.

    Private health insurers are rightly trying to encourage such efficiencies but the tools they have to do this through contract negotiations are quite blunt.

    As we wait for the results of the review into the private hospital sector, value for money for taxpayers is paramount. We are all subsidising the private hospital sector.

    Anthony Scott has previously received funding from the Medibank Better Health Foundation.

    Terence C. Cheng does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment

    – ref. Are private hospitals really in trouble? And is more public funding the answer? – https://theconversation.com/are-private-hospitals-really-in-trouble-and-is-more-public-funding-the-answer-238891

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Access to a GP can make all the difference in surviving lung cancer – and that is a problem for Māori

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ross Lawrenson, Professor of Population Health, University of Waikato

    Surviving lung cancer in Aotearoa New Zealand could depend on whether you can access a GP – raising questions about equity in the country’s health system.

    Our new research examines the outcomes for patients who are diagnosed with lung cancer through their GP versus those who are diagnosed at the emergency department (ED).

    Examining 2,400 lung cancer diagnoses in Waikato between 2011 and 2021, we found those who are diagnosed with lung cancer after ED visits tended to have later-stage disease and poorer outcomes compared to those diagnosed after a GP referral.

    We also found diagnosis after ED attendance was 27% higher for Māori than non-Māori and 22% higher for men than women.

    These results raise important questions about health inequity in New Zealand and highlight the need to ensure everyone is able to access an early cancer diagnosis.

    Limited access to everyday health care

    Currently half of all general practices have closed their books to new patients, leaving 290,000 patients unenrolled and reliant on emergency departments for their health care.

    Some 80% of practices have closed their books to new patients at some point since 2019.

    For those who are enrolled in a practice, the wait times for appointments are often such that the only option is to go to the ED for help.

    This is especially true in rural areas where the hospital can become the default route to diagnosis.

    Lung cancer is New Zealand’s single biggest cause of cancer deaths, with over 1,800 per year. Some 80% of those who are diagnosed with lung cancer present with advanced disease and very poor prospects of survival.

    It’s also the cancer with the largest equity gap. The mortality rate for Māori with lung cancer is three to four times that of people of European descent.

    While much of this disparity is due to differences in the rates of smoking among ethnic groups, there is also evidence delays in diagnosis and poorer access to surgery are also major influences on survival rates.

    Identifying lung cancer

    Lung cancer usually starts in the tissue lining the airways and symptoms can initially be relatively minor – some shortness of breath during exercise, a niggly cough or sharp pains while breathing.

    Patients with these sorts of symptoms usually go to a GP to check whether this is something that needs further investigation.

    But if someone cannot get an appointment, or does not recognise the symptoms as serious, then they are likely to delay taking action.

    Advanced symptoms of lung cancer include coughing up blood or having lumps in the neck due to lymphatic spread of the cancer. People with these alarming symptoms tend to go to the hospital for treatment.

    Our study confirms earlier findings that those diagnosed through the emergency department are:

    • more likely to have advanced disease
    • more likely to have a more aggressive type of cancer (called small cell cancer), and
    • have substantially poorer likelihoods of survival.

    The median survival for those who never went to the ED was 13.6 months, while the median survival for those with one ED visit was just three months.

    That said, attending an emergency department has some advantages. These include being seen by a doctor within a few hours, immediate access to x-rays and, in our major hospitals, access to the definitive diagnostic tool for a lung cancer – a computed tomography (CT) machine.

    Our study found 25% of cases went to the ED two or more times in the two weeks before their diagnosis. This was especially true for those going to one of the Waikato rural hospitals, where a second or third visit was more likely before being diagnosed.

    Barriers to care

    It is clear New Zealand still has several barriers to primary care. This has lead to an over-reliance on emergency departments for diagnosing cancer, despite the long-running faster cancer treatment targets.

    The situation is unlikely to improve. Access to GPs is getting worse, in part due to increasing fees.

    Māori and Pacific patients with lung cancer were less likely than other ethnic groups to have been enrolled with a primary health organisation when they were diagnosed. They were also less likely to have visited a GP in the three months prior to diagnosis.

    Making it easier to see a GP

    Making general practice care more accessible is the most effective way of addressing the inequities in our lung cancer statistics.

    Currently, New Zealand has only 74 GPs per 100,000 people, compared to 110 in Australia.

    It is clear we need to substantially increase the number of GPs. This is a long-term project but needs to be a strategic goal for the health sector.

    In the meantime, we need to make primary care more accessible by increasing patient subsidies and reducing the direct patient costs to see a doctor. At the same time, we need to better equip GPs with access to diagnostic facilities, including in our rural hospitals.

    Ross Lawrenson receives funding from NZ Health Research Council. He is an Honorary Fellow of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners.

    Chunhuan Lao receives funding from NZ Health Research Council.

    – ref. Access to a GP can make all the difference in surviving lung cancer – and that is a problem for Māori – https://theconversation.com/access-to-a-gp-can-make-all-the-difference-in-surviving-lung-cancer-and-that-is-a-problem-for-maori-239808

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is an ankle sprain also a brain injury? How neuroscience is helping athletes, astronauts and ‘average Joes’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gordon Waddington, AIS Professor of Sports Medicine Research, University of Canberra

    Have you ever thought of an ankle sprain as a brain injury? Most people probably wouldn’t.

    However, we are starting to understand how the brain is constantly adapting, known as plasticity.

    Even though the damage of an ankle sprain happens at the ankle, there may also be some changes going on in the brain to how it well it senses pain or movement.

    One of our doctoral students, Ashley Marchant, has shown something similar happens when we change how much weight (or load) we put on the muscles of the lower limb. The closer the load is to normal earth gravity, the more accurate our movement sense is; the lower the muscle load, the less accurate we get.

    This work means we need to rethink how the brain controls and responds to movement.

    Solving an important puzzle

    Historically, movement science has attempted to improve muscle function through resistance training, cardiovascular exercise and flexibility.

    One of the big issues in the treatment and prevention of sport injuries is that even when the sports medicine team feels an athlete is ready to return, the risk of a future injury remains twice to eight times higher than if they’d never had an injury.

    This means sports medicos have been missing something.

    Our work at the University of Canberra and the Australian Institute of Sport has targeted sensory input in an attempt to solve this puzzle. The goal has been to assess the ability of the sensory reception, or perception, aspect of movement control.

    Input (sensory) nerves outnumber output (motor) nerves by roughly ten to one.

    Over 20 years, scientists have developed tools to allow us to determine the quality of the sensory input to the brain, which forms the basis of how well we can perceive movement. Gauging this input could be useful for everyone from astronauts to athletes and older people at risk of falls.

    We can now measure how well a person gets information from three critical input systems:

    • the vestibular system (inner ear balance organs)
    • the visual system (pupil responses to changes in light intensity)
    • the position sense system in the lower limbs (predominantly from sensors in the muscles and skin of the ankle and foot).

    This information allows us to build a picture of how well a person’s brain is gathering movement information. It also indicates which of the three systems might benefit from additional rehabilitation or training.

    Lessons from space

    You may have seen videos of astronauts, such as on the International Space Station, moving around using only their arms, with their legs hanging behind them.

    The crew of the International Space Station have some fun with ‘synchronised space swimming’ in 2021.

    This shows how when people leave earth’s gravity, they get minimal information to the sensory system from the skin and muscles of their legs.

    The brain rapidly deactivates the connections it normally uses for controlling movement. This is OK while the astronaut is in space but as soon as they need to stand or walk on the earth or moon surface, they are at greater risk of falls and injury.

    Similar brain changes might be occurring for athletes due to changes in movement patterns after injury.

    For example, developing a limp after a leg injury means the brain is receiving very different movement information from that leg’s movement patterns. With plasticity, this may mean the movement control pattern doesn’t return to an optimum pre-injury status.

    As mentioned previously, a history of injury is the best predictor of future injury.

    This suggests something changes in the athlete’s movement control processes after injury – most likely in the brain – which extends beyond the time when the injured tissue has healed.

    Measures of how well an athlete perceives movement are associated with how well they go on to perform in a range of sports. So sensory awareness could also be a way to identify athletic talent early.

    In older people and in the context of preventing falls, poor scores on the same sensory input perception measures can predict later falls.

    This might be due to reduced physical activity in some older people. This “use it or lose it” idea might show how brain connections for movement perception and control can degrade over time.

    Precise health care

    New technologies to track sensory ability are part of a new direction in health care described as precision health.

    Precision health uses technologies and artificial intelligence to consider the range of factors (such as their genetic make-up) that affect a person’s health and provide treatments designed specifically for them.

    Applying a precision health approach in the area of movement control could allow much more targeted rehabilitation for athletes, training for astronauts and earlier falls prevention for older people.

    Gordon Waddington owns shares in Prism Neuro Pty Ltd a perceptual neuroscience ability measurement company. He receives funding from the Medical Research Futures Fund, Australian Research Council, NSW Institute of Sport, Queensland Academy of Sport and the Australian Institute of Sport.

    Jeremy Witchalls receives funding from the NSW Institute of Sport and the Australian Institute of Sport.

    – ref. Is an ankle sprain also a brain injury? How neuroscience is helping athletes, astronauts and ‘average Joes’ – https://theconversation.com/is-an-ankle-sprain-also-a-brain-injury-how-neuroscience-is-helping-athletes-astronauts-and-average-joes-230416

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The common raupō once kept NZ’s wetlands and lakes thriving – now it could help restore them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rewi Newnham, Professor in Physical Geography, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Shutterstock/Sketchart

    With about 90% of New Zealand’s natural wetlands drained or severely damaged during the past decades, we need to understand the role of native plants in the restoration of these important habitats.

    Raupō is a resilient plant and acts as an ecological buffer.
    Wikimedia Commons/Grapeman4, CC BY-SA

    Our new research details the history of raupō (bulrush) from the time before people arrived in Aotearoa. It shows this resilient, opportunistic plant – and taonga species – can play an important role restoring wetlands and freshwater quality.

    An unexpected finding was that the decline of freshwater quality in many lakes did not really kick in until the mid-20th century with intensification of agriculture. Until then, lake water quality indicators generally showed these ecosystems remained healthy. The prolific expansion of raupō after Aotearoa was first settled may have helped.

    Thriving on material washed from disturbed catchments, raupō acted as an ecological buffer, intercepting nutrients and sediments, and reducing potentially harmful effects on freshwater ecosystems.

    From the mid-20th century, as water quality began to deteriorate, raupō populations – and any buffering effects – were generally in decline as wetlands and lake shallows were drained for grazing land and better access to water supply.

    Lessons from this plant’s past can be put to good use today as we strive to bring back the mauri (life force) of our freshwater systems.

    Survival strategies for hard times

    Before settlement, when dense forest covered most of the country, raupō was surviving on the fringes. As a wetland plant, it likes its roots submerged, but needs light to grow.

    Its preferred niche is the shallow margins of lakes, ponds and streams or nutrient-rich swamps. Before people, these places were much less common. Forests typically grew right up to the water’s edge and extended across some swamps.

    Under these conditions, raupō evolved strategies for survival: aerated roots to cope with water logging; tiny, abundant seeds that spread far and wide on the wind; rhizomes (underground stems) that extend from the mother plant and store carbohydrates to keep the plant alive in lean times.

    Raupō has several attributes that allow it to grow on disturbed land. 1. large, resilient structures; 2. small, wind-dispersed seeds; 3. long-lived seed bank; 4. flowers produce abundant pollen; 5. aerated roots; 6. rhizomes store energy over winter; 7. rhizomes anchor in substrate, trapping sediment; 8. aggressive clonal propagation; 9. floating rhizome mats.
    Author provided, CC BY-SA

    Raupō can even build floating root mats, from sediment trapped by its rhizomes, that extend out across open water and even detach from the shoreline to become mobile raupō islands.

    With these survival strategies, raupō could wait for better times which, in Aotearoa’s dynamic environment, duly arrived.

    Episodic agents of disruption – storms, floods, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic ashfall – created opportunities. Local forest damage allowed light to penetrate to ground level, and slips and floods brought nutrient-rich sediment from soils.

    Raupō would seize these opportunities to expand. But they were typically short-lived as the inevitable process of forest succession returned the environment to stability – and raupō back to a state of patient hibernation.

    Hitting the jackpot

    Then people arrived, with fire and hungry mouths to feed. This time, the disturbances persisted. Forest clearances endured, sediments rich in nutrients flooded wetlands and lakes, and raupō, supremely equipped for just this scenario, spread across swamps and lake shores as wildfires spread on land.

    Our tūpuna (ancestors) observed this behaviour, as well as what was happening around raupō. Insects and birds were feeding and nesting. Freshwater fish, crays, shellfish and eel spawned among its fertile beds.

    This new-found abundance also offered a range of resource opportunities. Raupō’s flax-like leaves were woven into mats, rope and string. Leaves and stems were used like thatch to cloak the roofs and walls of whare.

    This graphic shows how raupō responded to environmental changes during the past millennium (upper panels), informed by pollen analysis of lake sediments (lower panels).
    Author provided, CC BY-SA

    Traditional poi were often made from raupō leaves. Some iwi, particularly in the south, used the stems to build lightweight boats for navigating rivers and lakes. Flower stalks, shoots and young leaves were eaten, and the rhizomes and roots, when cooked, provided edible carbohydrates. The most cherished raupō kai, however, were cakes baked using the copious raupō pollen.

    Unsurprisingly, for many iwi raupō remains a taonga species today, treasured for this array of resources and for its ecological and even spiritual roles in maintaining the mauri of freshwater habitats, upon which so much depends.

    For some iwi, raupō are seen as kaitiaki (guardians) watching over a lake or wetland, and signalling its health. In these ways, raupō also connects us with other Indigenous communities. Although raupō is native to this country, the same species is found in Australia and parts of East Asia, while relatives in the genus Typha (Greek for marsh) occur naturally on all continents, except Antarctica.

    Similar practices occurred wherever raupō and its relatives are found.
    This connection between cultural and ecological roles is one of the fascinating findings from our research. We describe raupō as a “human-associated species”, not just because of its taonga status, but because its fate seems so closely linked to people.

    More work needs to be done, but history tells us raupō has an important role in restoring the health of our freshwater ecosystems. Not only can it soak up nutrients and contaminants, but as both a native and taonga species it can assist remediation solutions that are ecologically and culturally supportive and sustainable.

    This research was funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment research programmes – Our lakes’ health; past, present, future (C05X1707) and Our lakes, Our future (CAWX2305).

    – ref. The common raupō once kept NZ’s wetlands and lakes thriving – now it could help restore them – https://theconversation.com/the-common-raupo-once-kept-nzs-wetlands-and-lakes-thriving-now-it-could-help-restore-them-238887

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Before Trump, there was a long history of race-baiting, fear-mongering and building walls on the US-Mexico border

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marie-Eve Loiselle, Lecturer in Law, Macquarie University

    Last month, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump delivered a one-hour address on the danger of illegal immigration to the United States. His stage was the US-Mexico border in Arizona and the set piece of his performance was the border wall.

    The message was simple: with their border policy, Democrats have “unleashed a deadly plague of migrant crime”. Trump has ratcheted up the tensions on immigration further since then, repeating wild conspiracy theories about Haitian immigrants eating pets and, more recently, claiming migrants are “attacking villages and cities all throughout the Midwest”.

    What the US needs, Trump has repeatedly stressed, is a closed border, a walled border.

    A long history of wall-building advocacy

    The US-Mexico border wall, which is currently around 700 miles in length in various stretches, has loomed large in American politics in recent decades, especially since the 2016 US presidential campaign. Yet, current stories about the wall mostly overlook its history.

    Most importantly, the media ignore the long-standing appeal of the wall as a tool of spatial and cultural division in the making of the US-Mexico border.

    In my forthcoming book, I trace the origin of the border wall to the early 1900s, when the US Immigration Service and other federal agencies called for the construction of barriers at the border.

    Congress answered their appeal by adopting an act in 1935 that authorised the secretary of state to construct and maintain fences between the US and Mexico. For decades following its adoption, US officials stood before Congress almost yearly, asking for funding for the construction of border fences.

    This trend culminated in the 1940s with two parallel projects: the Western Land Boundary Fence Project (576 miles or 926 kilometres of fencing from El Paso, Texas, to the west) and the Rio Grande Border Fence Project (415 miles or 668 kilometres of fencing along the Mexico-Texas border).

    Neither one of these projects was ever fully realised. But if they had been built, they would have surpassed the length of the current border wall.

    Immigration, disease and crime

    What is telling when looking at the history is how similar the arguments supporting such fences in the early 1900s were to those deployed today. Immigration, disease and crime have been recurring justifications for the wall, both then and now.

    Indeed, there is an uncanny likeness to Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the US-Mexico border — including during his August speech in Arizona — and the narratives justifying a border wall in the mid-20th century.

    High on the list of justifications was the need to deter “juvenile delinquents”, “thieves”, “beggars”, undocumented workers, narcotic smugglers, “wetbacks” (a derogatory term for Mexicans), and Mexican nationals seeking medical care in the US at public expense.

    These arguments appeared regularly in government reports and during congressional hearings from the 1930s to the late 1950s.

    A 1934 report by the Immigration Services on the feasibility of a short border fence between El Paso and Ciudad Juárez, for example, said it would stifle illegal immigration that took employment opportunities from American workers, while lowering wages in the borderland area.

    Reminiscent of recent analogies between the borderland and a “war zone”, the report noted that sending agents to patrol the border without proper equipment was pointless. It was akin to:

    put[ting] a body of troops in the field in an enemy’s theatre of operation without artillery, observation planes, trucks, ammunition and other weapons.

    The fence was “the correct solution to the problem.”

    At times, the fear of the undocumented merged with the fear of contagion. A foot and mouth disease outbreak in Mexico in 1946, for example, provided additional rhetorical support for the wall. As Texas Senator Tom Connally said when the Committee on Foreign Relations considered the issue:

    It has been a dream of the Department of State for many years to have this fence, not because of the hoof and mouth disease, but for immigration and customs and smuggling and all of that sort of thing.

    Senator Tom Connally in 1938.
    Harris & Ewing photographs, via Wikimedia Commons

    Persistent racial faultlines

    The 1935 act has long been forgotten. In fact, by the end of the 1950s, only a few hundred miles of fencing had actually been built.

    These earlier walling plans failed for a range of reasons, including opposition by Texan landowners and industries relying on illegal Mexican labour. Perhaps most importantly, there were serious reservations back then about the efficiency of fences in curbing immigration.

    Yet, these doubts have not weighed in to the same extent in contemporary debates about the border wall. This underscores the performative role of the wall in today’s politics.

    In fact, close to 700 hundred miles (1,126 kilometres) of fencing has been built under the Secure Fence Act of 2006. This includes large portions of the wall built under the presidency of Barack Obama and, to a lesser extent, Trump’s.

    What has filtered through, however, is the racialised narrative that paints Mexicans nationals in a disparaging way.

    This rhetoric relied on generalisations and stereotypes on themes such as criminality, licentiousness and disease. It transformed Mexico into a threat to be curtailed and became a frame of reference that has permeated politics for decades – and is now a defining issue in the upcoming presidential election.

    Marie-Eve Loiselle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Before Trump, there was a long history of race-baiting, fear-mongering and building walls on the US-Mexico border – https://theconversation.com/before-trump-there-was-a-long-history-of-race-baiting-fear-mongering-and-building-walls-on-the-us-mexico-border-238425

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In a US presidential election with razor-thin margins, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Bleich, Professorial fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

    In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system usually ensures an overwhelming majority of voters cast their ballots election after election.

    In the United States, it’s a very different story. Two-thirds of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 tended to hover between 50% and 65%.

    Often, it’s the voters choosing to stay home on the couch who effectively decide an election’s outcome.

    Under the United States’ unusual Electoral College presidential voting system, the candidate who wins the most votes nationally does not necessarily win the election. Twice in the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote in the presidential race and still lost the election. That includes Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    As such, victory depends on getting more voters “off the couch” in key battleground states where the decisive Electoral College votes are up for grabs. In those states, it doesn’t matter what percentage of people show up to vote, or how much a candidate wins by, it is winner take all.

    A voter who doesn’t vote, therefore, actually makes an active choice — they remove a vote from the candidate they would have likely chosen, and so give an important advantage to the person they would not have voted for.

    The “couch” is effectively where Americans go to vote against their self-interest.

    Who is more incentivised to vote?

    As this year’s presidential election between Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, we ask a simple question: whose “couch” will decide one of the most consequential elections in living memory?

    Recent research demonstrates that partisanship is an important driver of voter choice in presidential elections.

    The fact that the US is deeply divided is not news to most, but current survey data show how evenly split along partisan lines it actually is. With about 30% of Americans identifying as a Republican and 30% identifying as a Democrat, there is virtually no difference in the total number of voters who support each major party.

    The remaining 40% of Americans identify as “independent” – that is, not loyal to either major political party. Almost seven decades of research on the American voter shows, however, that independents heavily “lean” towards one party or the other, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democrat.

    One possible insight into which group has greater incentive to vote is polling on people’s dissatisfaction with their party’s candidate.

    According to the most recent Gallup Poll data, 9% of Republicans currently have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. In contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Harris.

    Partisan voters who are dissatisfied with their party candidate have a massive incentive to “stay on the couch” and refrain from voting. They don’t really want to vote for “the other team”, but they can’t stand their own team anymore either.

    For example, Republican women in the suburbs, veterans and traditional Republicans have started to abandon Trump over his stances on reproductive rights and national security, and his temperament. The Trump campaign clearly knows this. At a rally in New York a few days ago, he told attendees to “get your fat ass out of the couch” to go vote for him.

    Should these disaffected Republican and Republican-leaning voters stay home on November 5, Harris may well have a decisive edge over Trump.

    When the couch wins, America loses

    In 2016, Trump defied the polls and traditional voter turn-out trends by convincing some disaffected, working-class Democrats to stay on the couch, vote for an unelectable third party candidate or, in some cases, vote for him.

    Could this happen again? Or will Democrats be able to reverse this phenomenon by getting exhausted Republicans suffering Trump fatigue to stay home, while motivating everyone from Taylor Swift fans to “never Trumpers” to veterans of foreign wars to get out to vote.

    Recent trends suggest overall turnout will be comparatively high, in line with the past three federal US elections.

    Democrats have traditionally benefited from higher voter turn-out, but it is not as clear this is still the case in 2024. Recent research shows higher turnout rates seem to have favoured the Republican Party since 2016.

    Yet both parties still have significant numbers of people who don’t vote. According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents didn’t vote in the past three elections (2018, 2020 and 2022), compared to the 41% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

    So again, who sits on the couch matters. Inevitably, many of those who stay home will get precisely what they don’t want. When the couch wins, America loses.

    Jeff Bleich is a former US ambassador to Australia and a member of the National Security Leaders for America, a group of 700 former generals, admirals, service secretaries, ambassadors, and other national security professionals, that has endorsed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. He was also special counsel to President Barack Obama and served as chair of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board under President Donald Trump and as a member of President Joe Biden’s (non-partisan) National Security Education Board.

    Rodrigo Praino receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government Department of Defence, and SmartSat CRC.

    – ref. In a US presidential election with razor-thin margins, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins? – https://theconversation.com/in-a-us-presidential-election-with-razor-thin-margins-will-couch-sitters-decide-who-wins-239394

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Rabuka’s message to free Kanaky movement: ‘Don’t slap the hand that feeds you’

    By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific presenter/Bulletin editor

    Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka is cautioning New Caledonia’s local government to “be reasonable” in its requests from Paris ahead of a Pacific fact-finding mission.

    A much-anticipated high-level visit by Pacific leaders to the French territory is confirmed, after it was postponed by New Caledonia’s local government in August due to allegations France was pushing its own agenda.

    President Louis Mapou has confirmed the Pacific leaders’ mission will take place from October 27-29.

    Rabuka is one of the four Pacific leaders taking part in the so-called “Troika Plus” mission and confirmed he will be in Nouméa on Sunday.

    He told RNZ Pacific during his visit to Aotearoa last week that as “an old hand in Pacific leadership”, listening was key.

    “I’m hoping that they will be very, very reasonable about what they’re asking for,” the prime minister said.

    “When they started, the Kanaky movement started during my time as Prime Minister. I told them, ‘look, don’t slap the hand that has fed you’.

    ‘Good disassociation arrangement’
    “So have a good disassociation arrangement when you become independent, make sure you part as friends.”

    This week, Rabuka told RNZ Pacific in Apia that he would be taking a back seat during the mission.

    Veteran Pacific journalist Nick Maclellan, who is in New Caledonia, said there was “significant concern” that political leaders in France did not understand the depth of the crisis.

    “This crisis is unresolved, and I think as Pacific leaders arrive this week, they’ll have to look beyond the surface calm to realise that there are many issues that still have to play out in the months to come,” he said.

    He said there appeared to be “a tension” between the local government of New Caledonia and the French authorities about the purpose of Pacific leaders’ mission.

    “In the past, French diplomats have suggested that the Forum is welcome to come, to condemn violence, to address the question of reconstruction and so on,” he said.

    “But I sense a reluctance to address issues around France’s responsibility for decolonisation.

    ‘Important moment’
    “The very fact that four prime ministers are coming, not diplomats, not ministers, not just officials, but four prime ministers of Forum member countries, shows that this is an important moment for regional engagement,” he added.

    In a statement on Friday, the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat said that the prime ministers of Tonga and the Cook Islands, along with Solomon Islands Foreign Affairs Minister, would join Rabuka to travel to New Caledonia.

    Tongan PM Hu’akavameiliku will head the mission, which is expected to land in Nouméa after the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa this week.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ChatGPT is changing the way we write. Here’s how – and why it’s a problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ritesh Chugh, Associate Professor – Information and Communications Technology, CQUniversity Australia

    Shutterstock

    Have you noticed certain words and phrases popping up everywhere lately?

    Phrases such as “delve into” and “navigate the landscape” seem to feature in everything from social media posts to news articles and academic publications. They may sound fancy, but their overuse can make a text feel monotonous and repetitive.

    This trend may be linked to the increasing use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools such as ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs). These tools are designed to make writing easier by offering suggestions based on patterns in the text they were trained on.

    However, these patterns can lead to the overuse of certain stylistic words and phrases, resulting in works that don’t closely resemble genuine human writing.

    The rise of stylistic language

    Generative AI tools are trained on vast amounts of text from various sources. As such, they tend to favour the most common words and phrases in their outputs.

    Since ChatGPT’s release, the use of words such as “delves”, “showcasing”, “underscores”, “pivotal”, “realm” and “meticulous” has surged in academic writing.

    And although most of the research has looked specifically at academic writing, the stylistic language trend has appeared in various other forms of writing, including student essays and school applications. As one application editor told Forbes, “tapestry” is a particularly common offending term in cases where AI was used to write a draft:

    I no longer believe there’s a way to innocently use the word ‘tapestry’ in an essay; if the word ‘tapestry’ appears, it was generated by ChatGPT.

    Why it’s a problem

    The overuse of certain words and phrases leads to writing losing its personal touch. It becomes harder to distinguish between individual voices and perspectives and everything takes on a robotic undertone.

    Also, words such as “revolutionise” or “intriguing” – while they might seem like they’re giving you a more polished product – can actually make writing harder to understand.

    Stylish and/or flowery language doesn’t communicate ideas as effectively as clear and straightforward language. Beyond this, one study found simple and precise words not only enhance comprehension, but also make the writer appear more intelligent.

    Lastly, the overuse of stylistic words can make writing boring. Writing should be engaging and varied; relying on a few buzzwords will lead to readers tuning out.

    There’s currently no research that can give us an exact list of the most common stylistic words used by ChatGPT; this would require an exhaustive analysis of every output ever generated. That said, here’s what ChatGPT itself presented when asked the question.

    Possible solutions

    So how can we fix this? Here are some ideas:

    1. Be aware of repetition

    If you’re using a tool such as ChatGPT, pay attention to how often certain words or phrases come up. If you notice the same terms appearing again and again, try switching them out for simpler and/or more original language. Instead of saying “delve into” you could just say “explore”, or “look at it closely”.

    2. Ask for clear language

    Much of what you get out of ChatGPT will come down to the specific prompt you give it. If you don’t want complex language, try asking it to “write clearly, without using complex words”.

    3. Edit your work

    ChatGPT can be a helpful starting point for writing many different types of text, but editing its outputs remains important. By reviewing and changing certain words and phrases, you can still add your own voice to the output.

    Being creative with synonyms is one way to do this. You could use a thesaurus, or think more carefully about what you’re trying to communicate in your text – and how you might do this in a new way.

    4. Customise AI settings

    Many AI tools such as ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot and Claude allow you to adjust the writing style through settings or tailored prompts. For example, you can prioritise clarity and simplicity, or create an exclusion list to avoid certain words.

    By being more mindful of how we use generative AI and making an effort to write with clarity and originality, we can avoid falling into the AI style trap.

    In the end, writing should be about expressing your ideas in your own way. While ChatGPT can help, it’s up to each of us to make sure we’re saying what we really want to – and not what an AI tool tells us to.

    Ritesh Chugh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ChatGPT is changing the way we write. Here’s how – and why it’s a problem – https://theconversation.com/chatgpt-is-changing-the-way-we-write-heres-how-and-why-its-a-problem-239601

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Netflix’s Monsters is ‘murder porn’ at its worst. It comes at a cost to real victims – and the truth

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xanthe Mallett, Forensic Criminologist, University of Newcastle

    Netflix

    Are we products of nature or nurture?

    That’s the age-old question at the heart of Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan’s new Netflix release, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menéndez Story. The show focuses on the 1989 murders of José and Kitty Menéndez by their sons Erik and Lyle.

    The prosecution convinced a jury the two brothers were cold-blooded killers, driven by the desire to access their parents’ wealth. The brothers, meanwhile, claim to be victims of physical, emotional and sexual abuse at the hands of their parents – and say the killings were therefore self-defence.

    What’s the truth? Perhaps both.

    Javier Bardem and Chloë Sevigny play the roles of the parents, José and Kitty.
    Netflix

    Creating the image of a ‘monster’

    The case details are well known. In fact, I have taught this case to my own criminology students as an example of the victim-offender overlap, as clearly these brothers existed in a very dysfunctional family.

    On August 20 1989, brothers Lyle (then 21) and Erik (then 18) shot and killed their parents in their Beverly Hills mansion. They faced two trials. The first one in 1993 saw the brothers tried separately and ended in two hung juries and subsequent mistrials.

    In the second trial, which began in 1995, the pair were tried together. In 1996 they were found guilty of first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder, and sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

    Interestingly, the prosecution raised new objections to the admission of a large amount of defence evidence in the second trial, so the judge consequently excluded much of the evidence of abuse.

    This essentially dismantled the brothers’ entire defence, which was predicated on the fact they killed their parents out of fear, after they threatened to expose their father for serious and protracted physical, sexual and emotional abuse.

    In their second trial, Erik and Lyle were found guilty of murdering their parents and sentenced to life without parole.
    Netflix

    The Netflix series has created significant controversy. It documents a version of events leading up to the murders, including detailed histories of both Lyle’s and Erik’s sexual abuse, as well as the crimes themselves and subsequent trials.

    In the series, the brothers are portrayed in a homoerotic and incestuous way. For context, back in 1995 Lyle testified that he sexually offended against Erik, but this was against the background of the alleged sexual abuse from their father.

    Monsters, on the other hand, shows the brothers having an incestuous relationship as adults. The brothers deny this and there’s little evidence to support it.

    While the pair is sometimes painted in a sympathetic light, at other times the viewer is led to question whether greed was their true motive.

    Erik Menéndez has slammed the series, saying it walks back on decades of understanding of the devastating impacts sexual abuse has on male victims.

    I have to agree.

    The brothers didn’t just kill their parents and call it a day. These murders were incredibly brutal. As a criminologist, it looked to me like they were trying to obliterate their parents.

    José was shot in the back of the head, execution-style, while Kitty was shot a total of ten times, including one shot directly to her face. Such crimes are generally not motivated by money; they tend to be driven by something much deeper.

    After their parents’ deaths, the Menéndez brothers appeared to be spending their inheritance extravagantly – a point that later contributed to the prosecutor’s case against them.
    Netflix

    Murder porn at its worst

    This case can be seen through the ghoulish eyes of “murder porn”. The first trial, which was televised in 1993, went viral on TikTok in 2021, engaging a new generation of fans.

    Watching the footage from the 1990s, some of us will remember the legions of screaming girls who welcomed the handsome brothers to court. It was more like a scene from a boyband concert than a brutal double-murder trial.

    Whether you believe the brothers are cold-blooded and opportunistic killers, or victims of serious child abuse, will influence your take on the ongoing interest in the case and the portrayal in Monsters.

    Ari Graynor plays Leslie Abramson, the lawyer who represented Erik in both trials.
    Netflix

    Monsters isn’t the first example of Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan cheapening real tragedies by turning them into voyeuristic and fictionalised television.

    The first instalment of the same series focused on Jeffrey Dahmer, a serial killer and sex offender who killed 17 men and boys between 1978 and 1991. Dahmer also engaged in necrophilia and cannibalism, so his brutal crimes were rich fodder for Netflix.

    Dahmer’s victims were openly critical, saying the retelling of the offender’s story diminished their loved ones’ suffering and revictimised them by opening old wounds.

    Regardless, Dahmer achieved critical acclaim with 13 nominations at the 2023 Emmy Awards, no doubt spurring the creators’ enthusiasm to further develop the franchise.

    The way forward

    The path to ethical true crime depiction lies in establishing facts and veering away from embellishing or glorifying the criminal or their crimes.

    Ideally, true crime should be victim focused and should achieve a purpose beyond entertainment. We have a lot to learn from criminal history, but these stories should be told in educational ways that respect and honour victims’ lives.

    While the real Menéndez family was dysfunctional, their portrayal in Monsters can only be considered sensational.
    Netflix

    We each have a responsibility to consume ethically produced true crime. Whether it’s TV series, films, podcasts or books, we vote for what we want through our engagement. My maxim is to choose content that reflects how I would want my story told, were I to ever become the focus of a true crime production.

    If you’re curious to hear more about the Menéndez brothers’ story, a new Netflix documentary called The Menéndez Brothers is set for release on October 7. Both Erik and Lyle have contributed to it through phone interviews conducted from prison – and they say there’s much that hasn’t been told.

    Xanthe Mallett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix’s Monsters is ‘murder porn’ at its worst. It comes at a cost to real victims – and the truth – https://theconversation.com/netflixs-monsters-is-murder-porn-at-its-worst-it-comes-at-a-cost-to-real-victims-and-the-truth-239596

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mixing it up: hybrid work models can offer the best of both worlds for worker wellbeing and productivity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Blumenfeld, Director, Centre for Labour, Employment and Work, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon sparked debate on the future of work in New Zealand this week when he ordered public service employees back to the office.

    But Luxon’s edict neglects a broader transformation in work culture.

    Work from home (WFH) arrangements have grown considerably over the past decade, propelled by an increase in dual-income households and rapid technological advancements.

    The COVID pandemic acted as a catalyst for further change, proving that many jobs could successfully be performed remotely.

    Our upcoming article in the New Zealand Journal of Employment Relations addresses the pros and cons of remote work. We highlight how a hybrid model – mixing days in the office with days working from home – can improve wellbeing, engagement and productivity.

    We found embracing a hybrid approach may lead to better outcomes as society shifts with technology and employment expectations. And, despite the prime minister’s demands on public service workers, it may be too late to go back.

    Embracing flexibility

    Under current rules, employees can request flexible working arrangements. Employers must provide valid reasons if they decline the request.

    According to a 2023 survey from Human Resources New Zealand, 40% of HR professionals noted productivity gains as a critical advantage of WFH arrangements.

    And some professional organisations have embraced work from home or hybrid work arrangements.

    The New Zealand Law Association, for example, has emphasised the significant benefits of flexible work for their members, including increased employee engagement, productivity, and overall wellbeing.

    A report from Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission noted the public service’s success in delivering quality services during the pandemic while working remotely.

    The commission’s current guidance on hybrid work arrangements supports flexibility that allows working from home to focus and working together when necessary.

    Does WFH reduce efficiency?

    Luxon argues forcing workers back to the office will promote efficiency. But there is little evidence suggesting New Zealand’s productivity has significantly declined with WFH or hybrid arrangements.

    Instead, we found office-only arrangements risked introducing new inefficiencies for the government. These included new layers of permissions and reporting on arrangements that have already been agreed to.

    The assumption that office work suits everyone is also contradicted by experiences during and after COVID.

    During the first year of the pandemic, many workers felt the void of casual interactions that once sparked creativity. They also struggled with isolation. This was especially pronounced for caregivers, often women, who had to juggle professional duties with increased childcare responsibilities.

    Despite this, a University of Otago survey conducted during the pandemic noted 67% of participants preferred a hybrid work model.

    Many expressed optimism regarding remote work’s continuation, with significant portions reporting stable or increased productivity, although some struggled with home distractions.

    And our research found taking a hybrid approach to work – with one or more days at home – reduced the risks from professional and social isolation and improved collaboration.

    Opportunities to work at home some of the time also allowed time for focused work, reduced commuting time and improved wellbeing.

    Boosting productivity from home

    Luxon’s assertion that working from home is “not an entitlement” aligns with traditional views on work. These include the belief that time at a desk is a measurement of productivity, rather than measuring the outcomes from work.

    However, a growing body of evidence indicates remote work can elevate both productivity and employee satisfaction.

    Eliminating daily commutes allows employees to redirect time toward focused work, positively impacting job satisfaction and mental wellbeing.

    Moreover, remote work fosters inclusivity, enabling organisations to source talent from a broader geographic area, which in turn enhances diversity and innovation.

    A report from McKinsey & Company found businesses adopting flexible work arrangements are better positioned to navigate future uncertainties, sustaining or even boosting productivity.

    A survey by the Australian Council of Trade Unions exploring WFH revealed nearly 48% of participants experienced enhanced productivity, attributed in part to the elimination of commuting.

    However, it also highlighted challenges. Some 40% of respondents said they were facing longer work hours, which can lead to burnout. Addressing these issues is essential to maintaining employee wellbeing.

    The future of work

    Instead of enforcing strict office attendance, leaders should adapt to the changing work landscape.

    Promoting flexible arrangements can foster a more productive and engaged workforce, ultimately benefiting New Zealand’s public service in today’s dynamic environment.

    Balancing both office and remote work presents the most promising path forward.

    Joanne Crawford receives funding from the Health Research Council and the NZ Industrial Relations Foundation Trust.

    Roya Gorjifard receives funding from the Victoria University of Wellington for Doctoral Research.

    Chris Peace and Stephen Blumenfeld do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mixing it up: hybrid work models can offer the best of both worlds for worker wellbeing and productivity – https://theconversation.com/mixing-it-up-hybrid-work-models-can-offer-the-best-of-both-worlds-for-worker-wellbeing-and-productivity-239710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate professor, Western Sydney University

    Negative gearing and capital gains tax are back on the national agenda as Australians deal with a housing crisis and politicians look for ways to tackle the issue and win voters’ support at the upcoming election.

    The Labor government confirmed this week the tax concessions were being reviewed. Meanwhile, the government is struggling to pass its Help to Buy housing assistance legislation through the Senate.

    The Help to Buy legislation is aimed at helping first home buyers on low and middle incomes purchase their first home. The government would contribute up to 40% of the home purchase price and require only a 2% deposit from buyer. Buyers could eventually buy back the government’s equity share.

    But the legislation has stalled with the Greens wanting more including rent caps and pulling back negative gearing while the Coalition says the government “shouldn’t be in the business of co-owning people’s homes”.

    The review, revealed yesterday, could reportedly include a cap on the number of properties a person could negatively gear. The changes would not affect anyone who is currently negatively geared.

    Negative gearing lets taxpayers claim deductions on their tax for the expenses relating to owning an investment property. They can save on tax as the property potentially rises in value. They can also be eligible for a reduced capital gains tax when they sell the property.

    But any changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax policies could face further opposition – depending on how they are implemented. The crucial issue is whether the changes free up enough housing stock and make it more affordable for buyers and renters.

    Home ownership in Australia

    Based on National Housing Supply and Affordability Council data, home ownership across most age groups has been declining since the 1970s.

    Younger households, aged between 25 and 34 years, are hardest hit, having 34% of household income spent on mortgage costs in 2022–23.

    About 67% of households in Australia are home owners, and the remainder renters. While the proportion of owners with a mortgage has increased since 1994, so too has the proportion of private renters.

    Size of the investment market

    Just under 10% of all taxpayers negatively geared their properties in 2020–21 and more than 70% of property investors have only one investment property.

    While there have been calls for changes to negative gearing policy to cap the number of investment properties at six, this would impact about only 20,000 individual property investors.

    Changes to capital gains tax

    Suggestions to increase capital gains tax (CGT) need to be considered carefully, given that:

    • there is no solid evidence to show that increasing CGT will increase housing supply and in fact, it may have the opposite effect by limiting rental housing available

    • any change to CGT legislation also impacts other investments (such as shares), as the CGT discount also applies to other capital gains

    • multiple investment properties are often held within self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) which are subject to different CGT rules and also benefit from superannuation tax concessions

    • the rapid increase in housing prices over recent years is likely to result in very large amounts of CGT being paid on investment properties, even with the current 50% CGT discount.

    Other ways to improve affordability and availability

    Policy discussions around housing affordability and availability invariably lead to suggestions to change how negative gearing and capital gains tax operate. However, taxation policy is not the only solution available.

    Another suggestion put forward is to allow first home buyers to use their superannuation for deposits.

    Regardless of one’s position on accessing superannuation for something other than retirement, this suggestion is not viable for low to middle income earners. These households are unlikely to have substantial superannuation balances. Also, they don’t have the earning capacity to service a mortgage for the outstanding amount.

    There is currently a push to use self-managed super funds SMSFs to enable home ownership. This would effectively allow individuals to become tenants in homes owned by their super funds.

    However, the complexities of superannuation law mean this could cause big problems for people whose relationships break down.

    Considering the generational wealth that currently exists in property, the government could consider making it easier for parents or grandparents to gift (or sell) property to their children or grandchildren, in certain circumstances.

    This area has not yet been sufficiently explored.

    What needs to change

    The real issue of housing affordability is multifaceted, and any change needs to be done as part of a broader policy.

    It is likely that on its own, changes to negative gearing and/or capital gains tax will not achieve the intended outcome to make housing more accessible and affordable for Australians who want to buy a home.

    While the debate around the best way to achieve housing affordability and accessibility continues, and while there are statistics that tell us about the current housing crisis, one crucial thing that is missing is the voice of the very people that any new housing policy should be designed to assist.

    More consultation is needed with younger age groups and low to middle income earners who are struggling with high rent and unable to purchase their own home.

    Australia desperately needs bold new innovative housing policies that do not rely solely on the taxation system but that consider a raft of measures that meet the housing needs of everyday Australians.

    Michelle Cull is co-founder of the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia and the Financial Advice Association Australia. Michelle is also an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee and volunteers as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

    – ref. The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage – https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-reviewing-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-but-this-wont-be-enough-to-fix-our-housing-shortage-239813

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Our electricity workforce must double to hit the 2030 renewables target. Energy storage jobs will soon overtake those in coal and gas

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jay Rutovitz, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

    Wanwajee Weeraphukdee/Shutterstock

    The electricity workforce will need to double in five years to achieve Australia’s 2030 renewable energy target, our new report finds. More than 80% of these jobs will be in renewables. Jobs in energy storage alone will overtake domestic coal and gas jobs (not including the coal and gas export sector) in the next couple of years.

    The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) updates its Integrated System Plan every two years. It’s a blueprint for the energy transition from coal to renewable energy. The plan lays out scenarios for how the electricity system might change to help put in place all the elements needed to make the transition happen.

    AEMO and the RACE for 2030 co-operative research centre commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures to undertake modelling on the workforce needed for this transition. The “step change” scenario in the Integrated System Plan is broadly aligned with the 2030 renewables target. Under this scenario, we found the electricity workforce would need to grow from 33,000 to peak at 66,000 by 2029.

    Rooftop solar and batteries together are projected to account for over 40% of these jobs. Wind farms will employ around one-third and solar farms just under 10%. Jobs would also treble in transmission line construction to connect renewables in regional areas to cities and other states in the next few years.

    Job projections in the National Electricity Market under the ‘step change’ scenario that aligns with the 2030 renewables target.
    Author provided

    Job growth would surge in a ‘renewable energy superpower’

    In the “green energy export” scenario, Australia becomes a “renewable energy superpower”. The country uses renewable energy to export green hydrogen and power heavy industry. In this scenario, the electricity workforce would almost treble to 96,000 by the late 2020s.

    By 2033, after construction peaks, more than half of electricity sector jobs will be in operations and maintenance. This applies to both the step change and green energy export scenarios.

    A significant employment downturn is projected during the 2030s. But in the green energy export scenario jobs then climb steeply again to a peak of 120,000. This projection reflects AEMO’s expectations of when green export growth will occur.

    New South Wales is projected to have the most renewable energy jobs in the 2020s. However, Queensland would become the largest state for renewable jobs (especially in wind farms) in the green energy export scenario.

    Projected total job numbers by scenario.
    Author provided

    What are the other possibilities?

    “Progressive change” is another scenario in the Integrated System Plan. For this scenario, we modelled slower growth in renewable energy. It reflects constraints on the economy and supply chains (including labour and minerals) for renewables.

    In an “enhanced manufacturing” scenario, local renewable energy manufacturing increases. Our modelling found it could create a peak of 5,000 extra jobs.

    Importantly, these projections don’t include upstream jobs in supply chains for the sector (for example, increased mining to supply the resources that renewables need) or electrification of homes.

    Creating this many jobs is very challenging

    Our modelling shows the workforce needs to grow very rapidly to make Australia’s energy transition happen. Unfortunately, the challenges of building this workforce are daunting. They include:

    • there’s a shortage of almost all key occupations in demand for the electricity sector – electricians, engineers, construction managers – according to Australia’s Skills Priority List

    • “extraordinary growth” forecast by Infrastructure Australia in other major infrastructure projects, such as transport, which will compete for many of the same skilled workers

    • under AEMO’s scenarios, employment will be subject to boom-bust cycles, which increases the risk of skill shortages and damaging impacts, such as housing shortages, in regional areas

    • Australia has relied heavily on skilled migrants – and will look to do so again – but many parts of the world are chasing the same workers.

    The International Energy Agency has noted:

    Labour and skills shortages are already translating into project delays, raising concerns that clean energy solutions will be unable to keep pace with demand to meet net zero targets.

    What can be done to avoid skill shortages?

    Some action has been taken to increase the workforce. The federal government, for instance, is subsidising apprentices under the New Energy Apprenticeship program.

    But action isn’t happening at the scale and pace required.

    What else can be done?

    Firstly, Jobs Skills Australia and Powering Skills Organisation (which oversees energy skills training) have outlined ways to increase the system’s capacity to train more skilled workers. This includes creating better pathways into renewable energy for students, especially in recognised Renewable Energy Zones.

    Secondly, Jobs Skills Australia has noted the need for renewable energy businesses to increase their intakes of apprentices. It recommends expanding the Australian Skills Guarantee to include generation and transmission projects.

    The guarantee has set mandatory targets for apprentices or trainees to complete 10% of labour hours on Commonwealth-funded major construction and information technology projects (A$10 million plus). It could also be applied to major government funding programs for renewable energy and transmission. These include:

    • the Capacity Investment Scheme, a government tender program to support a large volume of new renewables and storage projects

    • Rewiring the Nation, a $20 billion fund for transmission lines

    • grants from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

    Thirdly, government tenders could moderate the peaks and troughs in employment by limiting the maximum and minimum volumes built each year.

    Fourthly, including more women and First Nations Australians can increase labour supply and workforce diversity. Only one-in-two First Nations Australians are employed compared to around two in three in the wider population. Yet they account for around one-in-ten people in some major Renewable Energy Zones.

    Government pre-employment programs, working with industry and First Nations groups, could also increase the supply of workers. These could have a dramatic social impact too.

    It’s a challenging problem whichever way you look at it. We need rapid change to build renewable energy capacity before coal plants retire and to tackle climate change. But that depends on growing the workforce amid skill shortages.

    There’s a range of ways to increase the supply of workers and improve local outcomes. But we are running out of time. Urgent action is needed.

    The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based

    The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based.

    – ref. Our electricity workforce must double to hit the 2030 renewables target. Energy storage jobs will soon overtake those in coal and gas – https://theconversation.com/our-electricity-workforce-must-double-to-hit-the-2030-renewables-target-energy-storage-jobs-will-soon-overtake-those-in-coal-and-gas-239718

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why are we seeing more pandemics? Our impact on the planet has a lot to do with it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Anikeeva, Research Fellow, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide

    ImageFlow/Shutterstock

    Pandemics – the global spread of infectious diseases – seem to be making a comeback. In the Middle Ages we had the Black Death (plague), and after the first world war we had the Spanish flu. Tens of millions of people died from these diseases.

    Then science began to get the upper hand, with vaccination eradicating smallpox, and polio nearly so. Antibiotics became available to treat bacterial infections, and more recently antivirals as well.

    But in recent years and decades pandemics seem to be returning. In the 1980s we had HIV/AIDS, then several flu pandemics, SARS, and now COVID (no, COVID isn’t over).

    So why is this happening, and is there anything we can do to avert future pandemics?

    Unbalanced ecosystems

    Healthy, stable ecosystems provide services that keep us healthy, such as supplying food and clean water, producing oxygen, and making green spaces available for our recreation and wellbeing.

    Another key service ecosystems provide is disease regulation. When nature is in balance – with predators controlling herbivore populations, and herbivores controlling plant growth – it’s more difficult for pathogens to emerge in a way that causes pandemics.

    But when human activities disrupt and unbalance ecosystems – such as by way of climate change and biodiversity loss – things go wrong.

    For example, climate change affects the number and distribution of plants and animals. Mosquitoes that carry diseases can move from the tropics into what used to be temperate climates as the planet warms, and may infect more people in the months that are normally disease free.

    We’ve studied the relationship between weather and dengue fever transmission in China, and our findings support the same conclusion reached by many other studies: climate change is likely to put more people at risk of dengue.

    COVID was not the first pandemic, and is unlikely to be the last.
    Jaromir Chalabala/Shutterstock

    Biodiversity loss can have similar effects by disrupting food chains. When ranchers cleared forests in South America for their cattle to graze in the first half of the 20th century, tiny forest-dwelling, blood-feeding vampire bats suddenly had a smörgåsbord of large sedentary animals to feed on.

    While vampire bats had previously been kept in check by the limited availability of food and the presence of predators in the balanced forest ecosystem, numbers of this species exploded in South America.

    These bats carry the rabies virus, which causes lethal brain infections in people who are bitten. Although the number of deaths from bat-borne rabies has now fallen dramatically due to vaccination programs in South America, rabies caused by bites from other animals still poses a global threat.

    As urban and agricultural development impinges on natural ecosystems, there are increasing opportunities for humans and domestic animals to become infected with pathogens that would normally only be seen in wildlife – particularly when people hunt and eat animals from the wild.

    The HIV virus, for example, first entered human populations from apes that were slaughtered for food in Africa, and then spread globally through travel and trade.

    Meanwhile, bats are thought to be the original reservoir for the virus that caused the COVID pandemic, which has killed more than 7 million people to date.

    Climate change can affect the distribution of animals which carry disease, such as mosquitoes.
    Kwangmoozaa/Shutterstock

    Ultimately, until we effectively address the unsustainable impact we are having on our planet, pandemics will continue to occur.

    Targeting the ultimate causes

    Factors such as climate change, biodiversity loss and other global challenges are the ultimate (high level) cause of pandemics. Meanwhile, increased contact between humans, domestic animals and wildlife is the proximate (immediate) cause.

    In the case of HIV, while direct contact with the infected blood of apes was the proximate cause, the apes were only being slaughtered because large numbers of very poor people were hungry – an ultimate cause.

    The distinction between ultimate causes and proximate causes is important, because we often deal only with proximate causes. For example, people may smoke because of stress or social pressure (ultimate causes of getting lung cancer), but it’s the toxins in the smoke that cause cancer (proximate cause).

    Generally, health services are only concerned with stopping people from smoking – and with treating the illness that results – not with removing the drivers that lead them to smoke in the first place.

    Similarly, we address pandemics with lockdowns, mask wearing, social distancing and vaccinations – all measures which seek to stop the spread of the virus. But we pay less attention to addressing the ultimate causes of pandemics – until perhaps very recently.

    Often we treat the proximate causes of illness, but not the ultimate causes.
    Basil MK/Pexels

    A planetary health approach

    There’s a growing awareness of the importance of adopting a “planetary health” approach to improve human health. This concept is based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on flourishing natural systems, and the wise stewardship of those natural systems.

    With this approach, ultimate drivers like climate change and biodiversity loss would be prioritised in preventing future pandemics, at the same time as working with experts from many different disciplines to deal with the proximate causes, thereby reducing the risk overall.

    The planetary health approach has the benefit of improving both the health of the environment and human health concurrently. We are heartened by the increased uptake of teaching planetary health concepts across the environmental sciences, humanities and health sciences in many universities.

    As climate change, biodiversity loss, population displacements, travel and trade continue to increase the risk of disease outbreaks, it’s vital that the planetary stewards of the future have a better understanding of how to tackle the ultimate causes that drive pandemics.

    This article is the first in a series on the next pandemic.

    Olga Anikeeva receives funding from Green Adelaide.

    Jessica Stanhope receives funding from the Ecological Health Network and Green Adelaide. She is affiliated with the Environmental Physiotherapy Association.

    Peng Bi receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, AusAID,

    Philip Weinstein receives funding from competitive external granting bodies. He is affiliated with Nature Foundation, Australian Entomological Society, and the South Australian Museum.

    – ref. Why are we seeing more pandemics? Our impact on the planet has a lot to do with it – https://theconversation.com/why-are-we-seeing-more-pandemics-our-impact-on-the-planet-has-a-lot-to-do-with-it-226827

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The ‘best comet of the year’ is finally here – here’s everything you need to know

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland

    AstroStar/Shutterstock

    In January 2023, a new comet was discovered. Comets are found regularly, but astronomers quickly realised this one, called C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS), had the potential to be quite bright.

    Some hyperbolic reports have suggested it might be the “comet of the century”, but any astronomer will tell you the brightness of comets is notoriously hard to predict. As I explained last year, we’d have to wait until it arrived to be sure how bright it would become.

    Now, the time has come. Comet C/2023 A3 is currently visible with the naked eye in the morning sky in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, with its best yet to come in the next few weeks. And it does look promising. It’s unlikely to be the comet of the decade (never mind the comet of the century), but it will almost certainly become the best comet of the year.

    So where, and when, should you look to get your best views of this celestial visitor?

    A show in the morning, before sunrise

    At the moment, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) is a morning object, rising around an hour and a half before sunrise. It is visible to the naked eye, but not yet spectacular. However, with binoculars you can easily see the comet’s dusty tail pointing away from the Sun.

    The comet will remain at about the same altitude in the morning sky until around September 30. It will then get closer to the horizon on each consecutive morning until it’s lost in the glare of the approaching dawn by October 6 or 7.

    If you want to spot the comet in the morning sky, look east. The sliders below will help you orient yourself and choose the best time to look, depending on your latitude.

    During this period, the comet should slowly brighten. It reaches its closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) on September 27, when it will be 58 million kilometres from our star.

    As it swings around the Sun, it will continue to approach Earth, and so should continue to brighten. The best show in the morning sky will likely be during the last couple of days of September and the first few days in October, before the comet is lost to view.

    A potential daylight comet

    Thanks to pure good fortune, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will then pass almost directly between Earth and the Sun on October 9 and 10.

    This could cause a spectacular brightening of the comet, thanks to “forward scattering” caused by its dust. Imagine looking towards a bright light source through a cloud of dust grains. The grains nearest to the light source will scatter light from the source back towards you.

    As the comet swings between Earth and the Sun, it will be perfectly placed for this forward scattering process to occur. If the comet is particularly dusty, this could cause its apparent brightness to increase by up to 100 times.

    If it does, there’s a small chance the comet could briefly become visible in the daylight sky on October 9 and 10.

    However, it will be very close to the Sun in the sky, and incredibly hard to spot. Only the most experienced observers may be able to detect the comet at this time, and it requires a special technique. Do not try to stare at the Sun to see it.

    The best show could be after October 12

    After swinging between Earth and the Sun, the comet will appear in the evening sky. It will rapidly climb in the western sky, and should be a bright, naked-eye object for a few days from October 12. The sliders below will give you a sense of where to look.

    For the first few days of this period, the comet will still benefit from the forward scattering of sunlight, but this will decrease as it moves away.

    What about the tail?

    The positioning of the comet, Earth and the Sun in the Solar System means the comet’s tail will be streaming outwards, past our planet. This means it could grow to prodigious lengths in the night sky.

    The bulk of that tail will likely be too dim to see easily with the naked eye, but it could be a fantastic spectacle for photographers. Expect to see a wealth of comet images flooding the internet around the middle of October.

    As the days pass and the comet climbs higher, it will fade quite rapidly. It will likely become too faint to see with the naked eye, even for seasoned and experienced observers, before the end of October.

    At that point, the show will be over. Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will continue to flee the inner Solar System, moving into the icy depths of space, never to return.

    How reliable are the predictions?

    At the moment, the comet is already bright enough to consider it the “comet of the year”, outshining comet 12P/Pons-Brooks from earlier this year.

    But remember the classic saying – comets are like cats. They have tails and will often surprise us. For now, comet C/2023 A3 is behaving itself. It’s brightening predictably, and putting on a good show.

    But comets that approach this closely to the Sun often fragment. This is impossible to predict, and far from guaranteed. If the comet did break up, it could become even more spectacular because of all the dust and gas it would release.

    The opposite could still happen, too. The comet could fail to brighten as much as we expect, although that seems unlikely at this stage.

    Whatever happens, we’re in for a fascinating few weeks of comet watching. Hopefully, a real spectacle awaits us.

    Jonti Horner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ‘best comet of the year’ is finally here – here’s everything you need to know – https://theconversation.com/the-best-comet-of-the-year-is-finally-here-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-239300

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In a too-close-to-call US presidential election, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Bleich, Professorial fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

    In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system usually ensures an overwhelming majority of voters cast their ballots election after election.

    In the United States, it’s a very different story. Two-thirds of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 tended to hover between 50% and 65%.

    Often, it’s the voters choosing to stay home on the couch who effectively decide an election’s outcome.

    Under the United States’ unusual Electoral College presidential voting system, the candidate who wins the most votes nationally does not necessarily win the election. Twice in the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote in the presidential race and still lost the election. That includes Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    As such, victory depends on getting more voters “off the couch” in key battleground states where the decisive Electoral College votes are up for grabs. In those states, it doesn’t matter what percentage of people show up to vote, or how much a candidate wins by, it is winner take all.

    A voter who doesn’t vote, therefore, actually makes an active choice — they remove a vote from the candidate they would have likely chosen, and so give an important advantage to the person they would not have voted for.

    The “couch” is effectively where Americans go to vote against their self-interest.

    Who is more incentivised to vote?

    As this year’s presidential election between Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, we ask a simple question: whose “couch” will decide one of the most consequential elections in living memory?

    Recent research demonstrates that partisanship is an important driver of voter choice in presidential elections.

    The fact that the US is deeply divided is not news to most, but current survey data show how evenly split along partisan lines it actually is. With about 30% of Americans identifying as a Republican and 30% identifying as a Democrat, there is virtually no difference in the total number of voters who support each major party.

    The remaining 40% of Americans identify as “independent” – that is, not loyal to either major political party. Almost seven decades of research on the American voter shows, however, that independents heavily “lean” towards one party or the other, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democrat.

    One possible insight into which group has greater incentive to vote is polling on people’s dissatisfaction with their party’s candidate.

    According to the most recent Gallup Poll data, 9% of Republicans currently have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. In contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Harris.

    Partisan voters who are dissatisfied with their party candidate have a massive incentive to “stay on the couch” and refrain from voting. They don’t really want to vote for “the other team”, but they can’t stand their own team anymore either.

    For example, Republican women in the suburbs, veterans and traditional Republicans have started to abandon Trump over his stances on reproductive rights and national security, and his temperament. The Trump campaign clearly knows this. At a rally in New York a few days ago, he told attendees to “get your fat ass out of the couch” to go vote for him.

    Should these disaffected Republican and Republican-leaning voters stay home on November 5, Harris may well have a decisive edge over Trump.

    When the couch wins, America loses

    In 2016, Trump defied the polls and traditional voter turn-out trends by convincing some disaffected, working-class Democrats to stay on the couch, vote for an unelectable third party candidate or, in some cases, vote for him.

    Could this happen again? Or will Democrats be able to reverse this phenomenon by getting exhausted Republicans suffering Trump fatigue to stay home, while motivating everyone from Taylor Swift fans to “never Trumpers” to veterans of foreign wars to get out to vote.

    Recent trends suggest overall turnout will be comparatively high, in line with the past three federal US elections.

    Democrats have traditionally benefited from higher voter turn-out, but it is not as clear this is still the case in 2024. Recent research shows higher turnout rates seem to have favoured the Republican Party since 2016.

    Yet both parties still have significant numbers of people who don’t vote. According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents didn’t vote in the past three elections (2018, 2020 and 2022), compared to the 41% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

    So again, who sits on the couch matters. Inevitably, many of those who stay home will get precisely what they don’t want. When the couch wins, America loses.

    Jeff Bleich is a former US ambassador to Australia and a member of the National Security Leaders for America, a group of 700 former generals, admirals, service secretaries, ambassadors, and other national security professionals, that has endorsed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. He was also special counsel to President Barack Obama and served as chair of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board under President Donald Trump and as a member of President Joe Biden’s (non-partisan) National Security Education Board.

    Rodrigo Praino receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government Department of Defence, and SmartSat CRC.

    – ref. In a too-close-to-call US presidential election, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins? – https://theconversation.com/in-a-too-close-to-call-us-presidential-election-will-couch-sitters-decide-who-wins-239394

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Richard Holden says no interest rate fall likely for 12 months

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    For many Australians, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a fading memory as the world has moved away from lockdowns and masks. However, its lasting impacts, including persistent inflation, remain.

    Academic economists Steven Hamilton and Richard Holden, in their just-published book, Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism, examine how Australia fared in handling the COVID crisis in its economic and health policies.

    We’re joined on the podcast by Holden to talk about the book and also Australia’s economic outlook, during what has been a big week for economic news.

    On COVID, Hamilton and Holden found a mixed picture: Australia scored highly in its economic response but fell down on its vaccine procurement and provision of RATs.

    I think Treasury gave excellent advice to the Treasurer [Josh Frydenberg]  and he not only […] took that advice but was able to sell it to a sometimes sceptical cabinet. […] So I think it was good advice and strong leadership on the economic front. On the health front, I think the advice was really quite poor at times. I mean we make quite a point of Scott Morrison’s use of the phrase when it comes to vaccines “It’s not a race” when clearly it was a race. It was a race against the virus. It was a race to get vaccinated. It was a race to be able to reopen our economy.

    On the RBA and inflation, Holden agrees with this week’s decision to hold rates but believes they should have risen earlier at least once more:

    I have argued […] that late last year or early this year, the Reserve Bank should have raised rates at least one more time to get us closer to what happened in peer jurisdictions overseas, to try and beat inflation faster. The Reserve Bank has taken a different approach. They want to have interest rates peak, maybe a full percentage point lower than in places like the US, and they’re willing to tolerate inflation for longer.

    At least they’re not caving into political pressure from people like Jim Chalmers and Wayne Swan to precipitously cut interest rates and I give the governor, Michele Bullock, great credit for standing firm on that, including in her press conference remarks [on Tuesday].

    On when interest rates will start moving down, Holden gives a grim assessment:

    My view is the most likely case is very late in 2025, somewhere about 12 months from today. Again, it’s going to depend on the inflation numbers and I’d like nothing more [than] for us to be well inside the target band and for interest rates to be able to be moderated.

    I think it’s a real shame that we took a different strategy in Australia to what peer jurisdictions overseas did, which was raise rates more aggressively, take our medicine, have tamed inflation and now be cutting rates. That’s the story in the US and several other jurisdictions.

    Holden warns against RBA Governor Michele Bullock making predictions of future rate moves:

    Governor Bullock, I think, is at risk of repeating, albeit a milder version of, the mistake that Philip Lowe made in providing forward guidance. Now it’s not as dramatic as saying interest rates are not going to rise until 2024, which was sort of three years of forward guidance or thereabouts. Governor Bullock has fallen into, I think, a little bit of a trap by saying over six weeks ago that she and her colleagues on the board didn’t think that interest rates would be cut this calendar year.

    I don’t really understand what the virtue of her doing that was. I think that was probably, in hindsight, something that she may regret. [Although] I don’t think it will do any real damage because I think it’s a prediction that’s incredibly likely to come true.  

    On the government potentially making changes to negative gearing, Holden outlines why it could be a good idea:

    Getting rid of negative gearing would put potential owner-occupiers on a level playing field with investors at an auction. I think it’ll be very good news for people trying to move from the rental market into being owner-occupiers; I think it’ll be good news for the classic Australian dream. To be fair about it, the existence of negative gearing is something that puts downward pressure on rents. So negative gearing, in a funny way, is good for renters who are always going to rent but bad for renters who want to buy. So there are pros and cons.

    It was a good idea eight or nine years ago. I think it’s still a good idea today and I think it’s interesting that the government seems to be at least floating the test balloon.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Richard Holden says no interest rate fall likely for 12 months – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-richard-holden-says-no-interest-rate-fall-likely-for-12-months-239820

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Dutton’s nuclear plan would mean propping up coal for at least 12 more years – and we don’t know what it would cost

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute

    Opposition leader Peter Dutton has revealed the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan relies on many of Australia’s coal-fired power stations running for at least another 12 years – far beyond the time frame officials expect the ageing facilities to last.

    The claim has set off a new round of speculation over the Coalition’s plans – the viability of which has already been widely questioned by energy analysts.

    Dutton offered up limited detail in a speech on Monday. He also revealed the plan relies on ramping up Australia’s gas production.

    It seems increasingly clear the Coalition’s nuclear policy would prolong Australia’s reliance on coal, at a time when the world is rapidly moving to cleaner sources of power.

    Coal: old and tired

    The Coalition wants to build nuclear reactors on the sites of closed coal plants. It says the first reactors could come online by the mid-2030s. However, independent analysis shows the earliest they could be built is the 2040s.

    Now it appears the Coalition’s plan involves relying on coal to provide electricity while nuclear reactors are being built. On Monday, Dutton suggested coal-fired electricity would be available into the 2030s and ‘40s.

    But this is an overly optimistic reading of coal’s trajectory. The Australian Energy Market Operator says 90% of coal-fired power in the National Electricity Market will close by 2035.

    All this suggests the Coalition plans to extend the life of existing coal plants. But this is likely to cost money. Australia’s coal-fired power stations are old and unreliable – that’s why their owners want to shut them down. To keep plants open means potentially operating them at a loss, while having to invest in repairs and upgrades.

    This is why coal plant owners sought, and received, payments from state governments to delay exits when the renewables rollout began falling behind schedule.

    So who would wear the cost of delaying coal’s retirement? It might be energy consumers if state governments decide to recoup the costs via electricity bills. Or it could be taxpayers, through higher taxes, reduced services or increased government borrowing. In other words, we will all have to pay, just from different parts of our personal budgets.

    Labor’s energy plan also relies on continued use of coal. Dutton pointed to moves by the New South Wales and Victorian governments to extend the life of coal assets in those states. For example, the NSW Labor government struck a deal with Origin to keep the Eraring coal station open for an extra two years, to 2027.

    However, this is a temporary measure to keep the electricity system reliable because the renewables build is behind schedule. It is not a defining feature of the plan.

    Eraring was given a two year extension.

    New transmission is essential under either plan

    Dutton claims Labor’s renewable energy transition will require a massive upgrade to transmission infrastructure. The transmission network largely involves high-voltage lines and towers, and transformers.

    He claims the Coalition can circumvent this cost by building nuclear power plants on seven sites of old coal-fired power stations, and thus use existing transmission infrastructure.

    Labor’s shift to renewable energy does require new transmission infrastructure, to get electricity from far-flung wind and solar farms to towns and cities. It’s also true that building nuclear power stations at the site of former coal plants would, in theory, make use of existing transmission lines, although the owners of some of these sites have firmly declined the opportunity.

    But even if the Coalition’s nuclear plan became a reality, new transmission infrastructure would be needed.

    Australia’s electricity demand is set to surge in coming decades as we move to electrify our homes, transport and heavy industry. This will require upgrades to transmission infrastructure, because it will have to carry more electricity. Many areas of the network are already at capacity.

    So in reality, both Labor’s and the Coalition’s policies are likely to require substantial spending on transmission.

    Gas is not an easy answer

    Both Labor and the Coalition acknowledge a big role for gas in their respective plans.

    Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen says gas, along with storage, is needed to help back up to the grid, when solar and wind farms are not producing electricity.

    Dutton spoke of plans “to ramp up domestic gas production” in the short term, “to get power prices down and restore stability to our grid” – presumably until nuclear comes online.

    But the issue isn’t a lack of gas. It’s that the gas is in the wrong places. There’s a gas shortage because southern reserves are declining and all the gas production is in the north of the continent.

    An increased role for gas means getting someone to pay for new infrastructure, such as pipelines or LNG terminals. That will make for expensive gas, and expensive gas means expensive electricity.

    Many unanswered questions

    It’s now three months since the Coalition released its nuclear strategy. Detail was thin then – and Monday’s speech shed little light.

    Many unanswered questions remain – chief among them, costings of the nuclear plan, and how much of that will be born by government. CSIRO says a nuclear reactor would cost at least A$8.6 billion.

    We also don’t know how the Coalition would acquire the sites, or get around nuclear bans in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

    We still don’t know how the Coalition plans to keep the lights on in the coming decade, as coal exits.

    And crucially, we don’t know what it will cost households and businesses. It is unlikely to be cheap.

    Alison Reeve does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. Since 2008, Grattan Institute has been supported in its work by government, corporations, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporters is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

    – ref. Dutton’s nuclear plan would mean propping up coal for at least 12 more years – and we don’t know what it would cost – https://theconversation.com/duttons-nuclear-plan-would-mean-propping-up-coal-for-at-least-12-more-years-and-we-dont-know-what-it-would-cost-239720

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The design tricks keeping your kids hooked on games and apps – and 3 things you can do about it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Zomer, Associate Research Fellow at the Centre of the Digital Child, Deakin University

    This article is part of a series on the great internet letdown. Read the rest of the series.

    Ever found yourself unable to resist checking out a social media notification? Or sending a random picture just to keep a Snapchat “streak” going? Or simply getting stuck staring at YouTube because it auto-played yet another cute cat video?

    If so, you’re far from alone. And if we adults can’t resist such digital temptations, how can we expect children to do any better?

    Many digital environments are not designed with the best interest of users in mind – and this is especially true of games, apps and platforms commonly used by kids and teens.

    Designers use persuasive design techniques to make users spend more time on apps or platforms, so they can make more money selling ads. Below, we explain some of the most common design tricks used in popular games, social media and apps.

    Decision-making made easy 🔀

    Social media and streaming platforms strive to provide “seamless” user experiences. This makes it easy to stay engaged without needing to click anything very often, which also minimises any obvious opportunities where we might disengage.

    These seamless experiences include things such as auto-play when streaming videos, or “infinite scrolling” on social media. When algorithms present us with a steady flow of content, shaped by what we have liked or engaged with in the past, we must put in extra effort to stop watching. Unsurprisingly, we often decide to stay put.

    Rewards and dopamine hits 🧠

    Another way to keep children engaged is by using rewards, such as stars, diamonds, stickers, badges or other “points” in children’s apps. “Likes” on social media are no different.

    Rewards trigger the release of a chemical in our brains – dopamine – which not only makes us feel good but also leaves us wanting more.

    Rewards can be used to promote good behaviour, but not always. In some children’s apps, rewards are doubled if users watch advertisements.

    Loot boxes and ‘gambling’ 💰

    Variable rewards have been found to be especially effective. When you do not know when you will get a certain reward or desired item, you are more likely to keep going.

    In games, variable rewards can often be found (or purchased) in the form of “loot boxes”. Loot boxes might be chests, treasures, or stacks of cards containing a random reward. Because of the unpredictable reward, some researchers have described loot boxes as akin to gambling, even though the games do not always involve real money.

    Sometimes in-game currency (fake game money) can be bought with real money and used to “gamble” for rare characters and special items. This is very tempting for young people.

    In one of our (as yet unpublished) studies, a 12-year-old student admitted to spending several hundred dollars to obtain a desired character in the popular game Genshin Impact.

    The lure of streaks 🔥

    Another problematic way of using rewards in design is negative reinforcement. For instance, when you are at risk of a negative outcome (like losing something good), you feel compelled to continue a particular behaviour.

    “Streaks” work like this. If you do not do the same task for several days in a row, you will not get the extra rewards promised. Language learning app DuoLingo uses streaks, but so does Snapchat, a popular social media app. Research has shown a correlation between Snapchat streaks and problematic smartphone use among teens.

    Streaks can also make money for apps directly. If you miss a day and lose your streak, you can often pay to restore it.

    Loss of reputation 👎

    Reputation is important on social media. Think of the number of Facebook friends you have, or the number of likes your post receives.

    Sometimes designers build on our fear of losing our reputation. For instance, they can do this by adding a leaderboard that ranks users based on their score.

    While you may have heard of the use of leaderboards in games, they are also common in popular educational apps such as Kahoot! or Education Perfect. Leaderboards introduce an element of competition that many students enjoy.

    However, for some this competition has negative consequences – especially for those languishing low in the ranks.

    Similarly, Snapchat has a SnapScore where reputational loss is still at play. You do not want a lower score than your friends! This makes you want to keep using the app.

    Exploiting feelings of connection 🥰

    Another tool in the designers’ bag of tricks is capitalising on the emotional ties or connections users form with influencers or celebrities on social media, or favourite media characters (such as Elmo or Peppa pig) for younger children.

    While these connections can foster a sense of belonging, they can also be exploited for commercial gain, such as when influencers promote commercial products, or characters urge in-app purchases.

    What can parents do? 🤷

    Persuasive design isn’t inherently bad. Users want apps and games to be engaging, like we do for movies or TV shows. However, some design “tricks” simply serve commercial interests, often at the expense of users’ wellbeing.

    It is not all bleak, though. Here are a few steps parents can take to help kids stay on top of the apps:

    • have early and ongoing discussions with children about ideas such as the underlying commercial intent of what they are engaging with

    • model good digital choices of not giving in to persuasive design, such as by avoiding digital distractions yourself

    • use trustworthy resources to help in digital decision-making, such as Common Sense Media and Dark Pattern Games.

    For the moment, the responsibility for managing children’s interactions with the digital realm falls largely on individuals and families.

    Some governments are beginning to take action, but measures such as blanket age-based bans on social media or other platforms will only shield children temporarily. A better approach for governments and regulators would be to focus on safety by design: the idea that the safety and rights of users should be the starting point of any app, product or service, rather than an afterthought.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The design tricks keeping your kids hooked on games and apps – and 3 things you can do about it – https://theconversation.com/the-design-tricks-keeping-your-kids-hooked-on-games-and-apps-and-3-things-you-can-do-about-it-239493

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –