Category: Evening Report

  • MIL-Evening Report: Myth meets modernity in Aphrodite, a striking opera that dissects the links between beauty, power and desire

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Case, Lecturer in Musicology, Sydney Conservatorium of Music, University of Sydney

    Daniel Boud

    A new opera by American composer Nico Muhly is reimagining the myth of Aphrodite through a contemporary lens, exploring beauty, desire and identity in a strikingly relevant way.

    Aphrodite had its world premiere on Friday at Sydney’s Carriageworks arts precinct. The opera is directed by Alexander Berlage, performed by the Sydney Chamber Opera (in collaboration with Omega Ensemble), and features a sharp libretto by Melbourne playwright Laura Lethlean.

    It is a reflective production that challenges societal ideals and the enduring weight of cultural myths.

    A contemporary take on mythology

    Rather than simply retelling the myth, Nico Muhly’s Aphrodite engages in a creative dialogue with it. Through its protagonist Ava, an author and recently divorced mother of three, it interrogates the ideals and pressures associated with beauty and desirability.

    The story opens as Ava (Jessica O’Donoghue) returns to her hotel room after the premiere of a Netflix documentary based on her best-selling book, The Aphrodite Complex.

    Alone, Ava confronts personal insecurities, societal critiques, the fallout from her divorce, and fantasies of Hector, the young director of photography who worked on the documentary’s production with her in Athens.

    From her vulnerability emerges Aphrodite (Meechot Marrero) – a manifestation of the mythical Greek goddess, and a subconscious force embodying Ava’s desires and fears.

    Meechot Marrero is phenomenal as Aphrodite, embodying the goddess’s power.
    Daniel Boud

    Although it is brief (running for one hour) the opera’s plot is tightly focused. It centres on Ava’s emotional unravelling and her interaction with Aphrodite.

    The interplay between both characters blurs the boundaries between myth and reality, exploring how the stories we tell about ourselves, our culture, and our ideals, shape our identities.

    The opera poses profound questions. What does it means to be beautiful? Does beauty bestow power? How do societal expectations distort perceptions of self worth?

    Despite her academic expertise in deconstructing the Aphrodite myth, Ava finds herself trapped in the very ideals she critiques. This highlights the inescapable pull these ancient narratives continue to have in contemporary life.

    A visually stunning experience

    From the moment Ava steps on stage in a black tailored suit and heels, the opera’s modern aesthetic is unmistakable.

    The setting, designed by Isabel Hudson, is confined to a single hotel suite, including a bedroom, wardrobe and bathroom, with the bedroom backlit by a city skyline. Everyday details such as a flatscreen TV and a minibar cart create an atmosphere that feels both intimate and starkly contemporary.

    The opera, with its unmistakably contemporary setting, seems made with the modern viewer in mind.
    Daniel Boud

    A standout feature is the black-and-white screen above the stage. This screen displays subtitles for the English libretto, alongside live visuals of the performance (handled by video designer Morgan Moroney).

    The projections, captured by roving cameras, do more than just document the action. They add an artistic layer by focusing on intimate details, such as a hand gripping a thigh, or toes curling in a carpet.

    This visual storytelling evokes the voyeuristic tone of a music video or vintage film noir, accentuating the themes of scrutiny and self-perception. It reflects both the mythological obsession with beauty and the modern culture of constant observation.

    As the opera progresses, the visuals evolve. Toward the climax, earlier footage is replayed, creating a dynamic where Ava and Aphrodite must confront their own images. This layering transforms the cameras from passive observers into active participants.

    Musically engaging

    Muhly’s score is performed with technical brilliance by Omega Ensemble, and perfectly complements Lethlean’s libretto.

    Ava’s music alternates between structured and rhythmic patterns, reflecting her controlled persona – while more fragmented and fluid melodies mirror her internal struggles.

    By contrast, Aphrodite’s music is bold and forceful, underscoring the goddess’s power and allure. As the narrative unfolds, the musical identities of Ava and Aphrodite intertwine, mirroring the blurring of their characters.

    The collaboration between the Sydney Chamber Opera, Omega Ensemble, and the creative team results in a production that is intellectually stimulating and musically stunning.
    Daniel Boud

    The opera’s success is due in no small part to the extraordinary performances of its two leads. Jessica O’Donoghue is outstanding as Ava, delivering a vocally precise and emotionally raw performance. She captures Ava’s complexities – such as her intellectual sharpness and emotional vulnerability – with extraordinary depth.

    Meechot Marrero is equally phenomenal as Aphrodite. Marrero embodies the goddess’s desirability and power with a commanding stage presence and thrilling vocals.

    Together, O’Donoghue and Marrero create a dynamic interplay that forms the opera’s emotional core.

    A triumph of modern opera

    In Aphrodite, Nico Muhly and Laura Lethlean have created a bold and thought-provoking opera that will resonate deeply with contemporary audiences.

    It is not merely a performance, but an experience that will linger long after the final note. By reframing mythology through a modern lens, it challenges us to reconsider the ideals we uphold, and the myths we live by.

    Aphrodite is a powerful reminder that beauty, like myth, is multifaceted: its power lies not in perfection, but in its ability to challenge, inspire and transform.

    Aphrodite is on at Carriageworks, Sydney, until June 28.

    Laura Case does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Myth meets modernity in Aphrodite, a striking opera that dissects the links between beauty, power and desire – https://theconversation.com/myth-meets-modernity-in-aphrodite-a-striking-opera-that-dissects-the-links-between-beauty-power-and-desire-257964

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 23, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 23, 2025.

    Illegal US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities came in spite of no evidence
    BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem Kia ora koutou, I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground. The US struck three of Iran’s nuclear facilities overnight, entering the illegal aggression on Iran with heavy airstrikes despite no

    My kids only want to eat processed foods. How can I get them eating a healthier and more varied diet?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Fuller, Clinical Trials Director, Department of Endocrinology, RPA Hospital, University of Sydney If it feels like your child’s diet consists entirely of breakfast cereal, chicken nuggets and snacks that’d outlast the apocalypse, you’re not alone. Processed foods are the go-to for many kids, and for some,

    Defence Force to send plane to assist New Zealanders stranded in Iran and Israel
    By Giles Dexter, RNZ News political reporter The Defence Force is sending a plane to the Middle East to assist any New Zealanders stranded in Iran or Israel. The C-130J Hercules, along with government personnel, will leave Auckland on Monday. Airspace is still closed in the region, but Defence Minister Judith Collins said the deployment

    Trump’s decision to bomb Iran exposes fissures in US politics
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney US President Donald Trump’s strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which he foreshadowed on and off for the past few days, has revealed a surprisingly broad middle ground in US politics, even as it has provoked

    Leaders in US-affiliated Pacific react to surprise strikes on Iran
    By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent Leaders in the US-affliliated Pacific Islands have reacted to the US strikes on Iran. US president Donald Trump said Iran must now make peace or “we will go after” other targets in Iran, after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said

    Global warming is changing cloud patterns. That means more global warming
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University Caleb Weiner / Unsplash At any given time, about two-thirds of Earth’s surface is covered by clouds. Overall, they make the planet much cooler than it would be without them. But

    NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick William Smith, Associate Investigator in Nutritional Science, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University Shutterstock/Alesia Bierliezova The latest update to the New Zealand food composition database, a comprehensive collection of nutrient data collated jointly by Plant & Food Research and the Ministry of Health, brings more

    How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Shub, Obstetrician & Maternal Fetal Medicine specialist, The University of Melbourne How Australian pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is set to change, with new national guidelines released today. Changes are expected to lead to fewer diagnoses in women at lower risk, reducing the burden

    Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Unexpected severe turbulence injured crew and passengers on a Qantas Boeing 737 during descent at Brisbane on May 4 2024. The subsequent Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigation suggested the severity of the turbulence

    Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University Katerina Elagina/Shutterstock One of the most sought-after items of 2025 isn’t a designer handbag or the latest tech gadget. It’s a plush elf with a snaggle-toothed grin. Labubu (拉布布) is a global sensation. From David Beckham and

    Pro-independence advocates urge MSG to elevate West Papua membership
    By Scott Waide, RNZ Pacific PNG correspondent Two international organisations are leading a call for the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) to elevate the membership status of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) at their upcoming summit in Honiara in September. The collective, led by International Parliamentarians for West Papua (IPWP) and International Lawyers

    Starving Gaza civilians toll climbs at Israeli humanitarian ‘death traps’
    Pacific Media Watch BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem Kia ora koutou, I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground. Israeli forces killed over 200 Palestinians in Gaza over the last 48 hours, injuring over 1037. Countless

    NZ group slams Israeli ‘hoodwinking’ of US over nuclear strikes – Peters calls for talks
    Asia Pacific Report The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa has called on New Zealanders to condemn the US bombing of Iran. PSNA co-chair Maher Nazzal said in a statement that he hoped the New Zealand government would be critical of the US for its war escalation. “Israel has once again hoodwinked the United States into fighting

    The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. Here are 3 scenarios for what might happen next
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Middle East Studies, Australian National University After prevaricating about whether the United States would enter Israel’s war on Iran, President Donald Trump finally made a decision. Early Sunday, US warplanes struck three of Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, where the

    What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Dwyer, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania The jagged silhouette of a B2 stealth bomber seen during a 2015 flyover in the US. Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Late on Saturday night, local time, the United States carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear enrichment

    Muted response from Albanese government on US attack on Iran
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government has given a tepid response to the United States’ bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement from a government spokesperson, but there were no plans on Sunday afternoon for Anthony Albanese or

    What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran – and what might happen now
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Dwyer, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania The jagged silhouette of a B2 stealth bomber seen during a 2015 flyover in the US. Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Late on Saturday night, local time, the United States carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear enrichment

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Illegal US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities came in spite of no evidence

    BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

    Kia ora koutou,

    I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

    The US struck three of Iran’s nuclear facilities overnight, entering the illegal aggression on Iran with heavy airstrikes despite no evidence that nuclear weapons are being developed. Israel continued its strikes attacking dozens of locations across Iran throughout the day. Three were killed in an Israeli drone attack on an ambulance in central Iran. At least 400 have been killed and 2000 injured, according to the latest Health Ministry figures.

    *

    Heavy Iranian retaliation strikes on Israeli territories saw about 27 injured.

    *

    At least 47 killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza today, 18 while seeking aid. Two killed and 15 wounded in an Israeli airstrike on a house west of Gaza city. The murder of firefighter Muhammad Ghurab brings the total Gaza civil defence casualties to 121, representing 14.3 percent of its employees.

    Today I met a 10-year-old kid called Hassan on the streets of Bethlehem. He was looking for work. His dad had recently stopped working, unemployed like many in Bethlehem; around 80 percent of jobs here depend on tourism. He lives in al-Khader village, an hour’s walk away, but without opportunities there he had walked all this way in an attempt to help support his family.

    Israel’s illegal occupation of the West Bank has suffocated the economy here for decades. Now, as the genocidal war on Gaza continues and Israeli aggression expands to Iran, drawing in the USA and threatening regional collapse, a 10-year-old boy takes to the streets of Bethlehem to find work.

    *

    Israel’s illegal siege across the West Bank continues. Large numbers of Israeli soldiers conducted extensive raids on Bethlehem’s Dheisheh camp including demolitions, arrests, and interrogations last night. Mass demolitions continue across Nour Shams camp in the north, and further arrests, demolitions, and incursions took place across the West Bank. Bethlehem’s gasoline shortages continue due to Israel’s ongoing siege.

    *

    Twenty five killed in a terror attack targeting Mar Elias Church in Damascus, Syria.

    Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: My kids only want to eat processed foods. How can I get them eating a healthier and more varied diet?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Fuller, Clinical Trials Director, Department of Endocrinology, RPA Hospital, University of Sydney

    If it feels like your child’s diet consists entirely of breakfast cereal, chicken nuggets and snacks that’d outlast the apocalypse, you’re not alone.

    Processed foods are the go-to for many kids, and for some, they’re the only foods they’ll eat.

    Here’s why – and what you can do about it.

    Processed foods and their prevalence in kids’ diets

    Processed foods are any foods altered from their natural state.

    While some food processing is beneficial – such as pasteurising milk to kill bacteria – the ones that cause parents concern are ultra-processed foods, which use industrial methods to enhance flavour, texture and shelf life by adding sugars, salt, fats and artificial flavours, colours and preservatives.

    Parents know some ultra-processed foods all too well – they’re the fast and junk foods kids love. But others hide in plain sight, disguised as “healthy” convenience foods such as flavoured yoghurts and muffins.

    Ultra-processed foods offer low-to-no nutrition, which is why dietary guidelines recommend limiting them. But these
    “discretionary foods” make up one-third of Aussie kids’ daily energy intake.

    Why do kids find processed foods so appealing?

    Basic biology

    Ultra-processed foods are engineered to be addictive, with their added sugar, salt and fat activating kids’ brains’ reward system, releasing feelgood chemicals.

    Evolution has hardwired humans to seek natural sugar- and fat-rich foods – a physiological response our hunter-gatherer ancestors developed to avoid starvation.

    Food fussiness

    One in two kids will experience a fussy eating phase – another survival response inherited from our ancestors, who avoided toxins by developing an aversion to unfamiliar and bitter foods.

    Fussy eaters also favour ultra-processed foods, such as chicken nuggets, chips and breakfast cereals, because they’re familiar and non-threatening, often beige like breastmilk and kids’ first solid foods. Plus their blander flavours don’t overwhelm developing tastebuds.

    Pester power

    From sneaky YouTube ads to eye-level supermarket displays, kids are incessantly exposed to marketing that makes them crave – and demand – ultra-processed foods.

    How processed foods impact kids’ health

    Ultra-processed foods can impact kids’ health in a range of ways, contributing to:

    • nutritional deficiencies. Kids filling up on ultra-processed foods are less likely to eat vegetables, fruits, whole grains and lean meats, producing a diet lacking in fibre and other key nutrients needed for growth and development

    • childhood obesity. Ultra-processed foods are high in calories, unhealthy sugars, salt and fat, and often lack portion control, promoting overeating

    • increased risk of diseases. Long-term overconsumption of ultra-processed foods is linked with a higher risk of developing a range of chronic diseases, including heart disease, type 2 diabetes and cancer.

    Unhealthy eating habits can be hard to break, but positive diet and lifestyle changes – even later in childhood – can reverse these negative health effects.

    Science-based tips for healthier eating habits

    1. Eat together

    Family mealtimes allow you to model healthy eating. Sit together around the table, share the same meal, and put devices away so everyone’s attention is on eating.

    2. Introduce foods carefully

    Research shows kids need eight to ten exposures before they willingly eat new foods. So offer them regularly, encourage tasting and don’t pressure them to eat.

    While it’s tempting, avoid offering dessert as a reward for trying something healthy. Using treats as a reward increases kids’ preference for unhealthy foods.

    Kids are also more likely to try new foods when they’re hungry, so avoid snacks one to preferably two hours before mealtimes.

    3. Introduce variety to family favourites

    Children are more open to trying new foods when there’s something familiar on their plate.

    So, tweak family favourites by swapping ingredients, such as using lentils instead of beef in bolognese or roasting carrots to make “orange chippies”. Grating veggies into sauces also expands kids’ diets without overwhelming them.

    4. Make food fun

    Children respond positively when healthy foods are presented in fun ways, so include different colours, textures and shapes on their plate to hold their interest.

    Changing meal locations – and enjoying an occasional outdoor picnic – is another simple way to make mealtimes feel special and fun.

    Changing where you eat can make meals fun.
    RDNE/Pexels

    5. Teach kids about the science of food

    Teaching children in an age-appropriate way about the foods we eat promotes healthier eating, so:

    • encourage kids to grow herbs and veggies so they understand where healthy food comes from: toddlers can harvest produce; older kids can plant and prune

    • visit the greengrocer, fishmonger and butcher regularly so kids can see and explore the healthy foods on offer

    • talk to toddlers about food in energy terms: “eating wholegrain toast helps you play longer”

    • share fun facts with older kids: “fish has a special type of fat called omega-3 that makes us smarter”.

    6. Involve kids in cooking

    Spark kids’ interest in healthy meals by involving them in food preparation. Let them choose recipes and take on age-appropriate tasks such as mixing and chopping.

    When kids help make a meal, they feel proud of their effort, and research shows they’re more likely to try what they’ve created.

    It takes about two months to form a habit, so expect resistance along the way. But with perseverance, we can shift kids’ love of processed foods toward healthier choices, helping them establish healthy eating habits for life.

    Nick Fuller is the author of Healthy Parents, Healthy Kids – Six Steps to Total Family Wellness.

    A/Professor Nick Fuller works for the University of Sydney and RPA Hospital and has received external funding for projects relating to the treatment of overweight and obesity. He is the author and founder of the Interval Weight Loss program, and the author of Healthy Parents, Healthy Kids with Penguin Books.

    ref. My kids only want to eat processed foods. How can I get them eating a healthier and more varied diet? – https://theconversation.com/my-kids-only-want-to-eat-processed-foods-how-can-i-get-them-eating-a-healthier-and-more-varied-diet-242764

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Defence Force to send plane to assist New Zealanders stranded in Iran and Israel

    By Giles Dexter, RNZ News political reporter

    The Defence Force is sending a plane to the Middle East to assist any New Zealanders stranded in Iran or Israel.

    The C-130J Hercules, along with government personnel, will leave Auckland on Monday.

    Airspace is still closed in the region, but Defence Minister Judith Collins said the deployment was part of New Zealand’s contingency plans.

    “Airspace in Israel and Iran remains heavily restricted, which means getting people out by aircraft is not yet possible, but by positioning an aircraft, and defence and foreign affairs personnel in the region, we may be able to do more when airspace reopens,” she said.

    The government was also in discussions with commercial airlines to see what they could do to assist, although it was uncertain when airspace would reopen.

    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said New Zealanders should do everything they could to leave now, if they could find a safe route.

    “We know it will not be safe for everyone to leave Iran or Israel, and many people may not have access to transport or fuel supplies,” he said.

    ‘Stay in touch’
    “If you are in this situation, you should shelter in place, follow appropriate advice from local authorities and stay in touch with family and friends where possible.”

    Peters reiterated New Zealand’s call for diplomacy and dialogue.

    “Ongoing military action in the Middle East is extremely worrying and it is critical further escalation is avoided,” he said. “New Zealand strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy.

    “We urge all parties to return to talks. Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

    NZ’s Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters address the media . . . “Look, this is a danger zone . . . Get out if you possibly can.” Image: RNZ/Calvin Samuel

    It will take a few days for the Hercules to reach the region.

    New Zealanders in Iran and Israel needing urgent consular assistance should call the Ministry’s Emergency Consular Call Centre on +64 99 20 20 20.

    New Zealand hoped the aircraft and personnel would not be needed, and diplomatic efforts would prevail, Collins re-iterated.

    The ministers would not say where exactly the plane and personnel would be based, for security reasons.

    Registered number in Iran jumps
    Peters told reporters the number of New Zealanders registered in Iran had jumped since the escalation of the crisis.

    How the New Zealand Herald, the country’s largest newspaper, reported the US strike on Iran today. Image: APR

    “We thought, at a certain time, we had them all counted out at 46,” he said. “It’s far more closer to 80 now, because they’re coming out of the woodwork, despite the fact that, for months, we said, ‘Look, this is a danger zone’, and for a number of days we’ve said, ‘Get out if you possibly can’.”

    There were 101 New Zealanders registered in Israel. Again, Peters said the figure had risen recently.

    He indicated people from other nations could be assisted, similar to when the NZDF assisted in repatriations from New Caledonia last year.

    Labour defence spokesperson Peeni Henare supported the move.

    “I acknowledge the news that the New Zealand Defence Force will soon begin a repatriation mission to the Middle East, and thank the crew and officials on this mission for their ongoing work to bring New Zealanders home safely,” he said.

    While he agreed with the government that the attacks were a dangerous escalation of the conflict and supported the government’s calls for dialogue, he said the US bombing of Iran was a breach of international law and the government should be saying it.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Defence Force to send plane to assist New Zealanders stranded in Iran and Israel

    By Giles Dexter, RNZ News political reporter

    The Defence Force is sending a plane to the Middle East to assist any New Zealanders stranded in Iran or Israel.

    The C-130J Hercules, along with government personnel, will leave Auckland on Monday.

    Airspace is still closed in the region, but Defence Minister Judith Collins said the deployment was part of New Zealand’s contingency plans.

    “Airspace in Israel and Iran remains heavily restricted, which means getting people out by aircraft is not yet possible, but by positioning an aircraft, and defence and foreign affairs personnel in the region, we may be able to do more when airspace reopens,” she said.

    The government was also in discussions with commercial airlines to see what they could do to assist, although it was uncertain when airspace would reopen.

    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said New Zealanders should do everything they could to leave now, if they could find a safe route.

    “We know it will not be safe for everyone to leave Iran or Israel, and many people may not have access to transport or fuel supplies,” he said.

    ‘Stay in touch’
    “If you are in this situation, you should shelter in place, follow appropriate advice from local authorities and stay in touch with family and friends where possible.”

    Peters reiterated New Zealand’s call for diplomacy and dialogue.

    “Ongoing military action in the Middle East is extremely worrying and it is critical further escalation is avoided,” he said. “New Zealand strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy.

    “We urge all parties to return to talks. Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

    NZ’s Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters address the media . . . “Look, this is a danger zone . . . Get out if you possibly can.” Image: RNZ/Calvin Samuel

    It will take a few days for the Hercules to reach the region.

    New Zealanders in Iran and Israel needing urgent consular assistance should call the Ministry’s Emergency Consular Call Centre on +64 99 20 20 20.

    New Zealand hoped the aircraft and personnel would not be needed, and diplomatic efforts would prevail, Collins re-iterated.

    The ministers would not say where exactly the plane and personnel would be based, for security reasons.

    Registered number in Iran jumps
    Peters told reporters the number of New Zealanders registered in Iran had jumped since the escalation of the crisis.

    How the New Zealand Herald, the country’s largest newspaper, reported the US strike on Iran today. Image: APR

    “We thought, at a certain time, we had them all counted out at 46,” he said. “It’s far more closer to 80 now, because they’re coming out of the woodwork, despite the fact that, for months, we said, ‘Look, this is a danger zone’, and for a number of days we’ve said, ‘Get out if you possibly can’.”

    There were 101 New Zealanders registered in Israel. Again, Peters said the figure had risen recently.

    He indicated people from other nations could be assisted, similar to when the NZDF assisted in repatriations from New Caledonia last year.

    Labour defence spokesperson Peeni Henare supported the move.

    “I acknowledge the news that the New Zealand Defence Force will soon begin a repatriation mission to the Middle East, and thank the crew and officials on this mission for their ongoing work to bring New Zealanders home safely,” he said.

    While he agreed with the government that the attacks were a dangerous escalation of the conflict and supported the government’s calls for dialogue, he said the US bombing of Iran was a breach of international law and the government should be saying it.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Leaders in US-affiliated Pacific react to surprise strikes on Iran

    By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent

    Leaders in the US-affliliated Pacific Islands have reacted to the US strikes on Iran.

    US president Donald Trump said Iran must now make peace or “we will go after” other targets in Iran, after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

    Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US had begun a “dangerous war against Iran”, according to a statement shared by Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.

    Governor Arnold Palacios of the Northern Marianas said he WAs “monitoring the situation in our region with our US military partners”.

    “The Northern Marianas remains alert and we remain positively hopeful and confident that peace and diplomacy reign for the benefit of our fellow brethren here at home and around the world.”

    Governor Arnold Palacios of the Northern Marianas . . . “monitoring the situation.” Image: Mark Rabago/RNZ Pacific

    Delegate Kimberlyn King-Hinds said the Marianas had long understood “the delicate balance between strategic presence and peace”.

    “As tensions rise in the Middle East, I’m hopeful that diplomacy remains the guiding force,” she said.

    “My prayers are with the service members and their families throughout the region, most especially those from our islands who quietly serve in defense of global stability.”

    No credible threats
    Guam’s Governor Lou Leon Guerrero said that there were no credible threats to their island, and “we will do everything in our power to keep Guam safe”.

    “Our people have always been resilient in the face of uncertainty, and today, as we watch our nation take action overseas, that strength matters more than ever,” she said.

    “Guam is proud to support the men and women who serve our country — and we feel the weight of that commitment every day as home to vital military installations.”

    She said she and her team have been in close touch with local military leaders.

    “I encourage everyone to stay calm and informed by official sources, to look out for one another, and to hold in our thoughts the troops, their loved ones, and all innocent people caught in this conflict.”

    Lieutenant-Governor Josh Tenorio said: “What is unfolding in the Middle East is serious, and it reminds us that our prayers and our preparedness must go hand in hand.

    “While we stand by our troops and support our national security, we also remain committed to the values of peace and resilience. Our teams are working closely with our Homeland Security advisor, Joint Region Marianas, Joint Task Force-Micronesia, and the Guam National Guard to stay ahead of any changes.”

    Long-time warnings
    Meanwhile, Mark Anufat Terlaje-Pangelinan, one of the protesters during the recent 32nd Pacific Islands Environmental Training Symposium on Saipan, said he was not surprised by the US attack on Iran.

    “This is exactly what we concerned citizens have been warning against for the longest time,” he said.

    Terlaje-Pangelinan said the potential of CNMI troops and the Marianas itself being dragged into a wider and more protracted conflict was disheartening.

    “Perpetuating the concept of the CNMI being a tip of the spear more than being a bridge for peace between the Pacific landscapes does more harm than good.

    “The CNMI will never be fully prepped for war. With our only safe havens being the limited number of caves we have on island, we are at more risk to be under attack than any other part of America.”

    Iran requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, it said in a letter issued Sunday, urging the council to condemn the US strikes on its nuclear facilities.

    UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has described the US military action in Iran as a direct threat to world peace and security.

    Officials in Iran are downplaying the impact of US strikes on its nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow site buried deep in the mountains, in sharp contrast with Trump’s claims that the attack “obliterated” them.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s decision to bomb Iran exposes fissures in US politics

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lester Munson, Non-Resident Fellow, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    US President Donald Trump’s strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which he foreshadowed on and off for the past few days, has revealed a surprisingly broad middle ground in US politics, even as it has provoked controversy in the international community.

    Almost immediately after news of the US military action broke, John Fetterman, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, blasted out a statement of support, calling the attack the “correct move”.

    Steny Hoyer of Maryland, who spent decades in House Democratic Leadership roles, said the strike “was essential to preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon”.

    Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro, a likely presidential candidate in 2028, gave a thoughtful evaluation of the attack, calling Iran’s nuclear weapons program “dangerous”.

    Other Democrats were more muted. Leading Senators, including Leader Chuck Schumer, complained about the lack of congressional authorisation and the administration’s failure to consult Congress before the strike, but didn’t specifically oppose the US action.

    In the US system, only Congress can declare war, but the president has broad power as commander-in-chief to respond to threats. Most defenders of presidential authority acknowledge his authority to act militarily – particularly when the US’s role is highly limited, such as in the Iran strike. Should US involvement deepen, the calls for a congressional role in authorising the war will become louder and more legitimate.

    Some on the far left, including Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, openly opposed the strike and even called for Trump’s impeachment. Ocasio-Cortez said:

    The President’s disastrous decision to bomb Iran without authorization is a grave violation of the Constitution and Congressional War Powers. He has impulsively risked launching a war that may ensnare us for generations. It is absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment.

    On the Republican side, there has also not been unanimous support for the strike.

    Even within the president’s coalition, some isolationists have been opposed to any US strike on Iran. They rightly pointed out that Trump campaigned on ending wars, not starting them.

    Media personalities Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon openly urged the president not to strike Iran. Carlson’s interview on the issue with hawkish Republican Ted Cruz gathered huge attention on social media.

    Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence and a member of his cabinet, went so far as to make a video about the horrors of nuclear conflict.

    Trump’s reaction to Gabbard’s video was furious. He even suggested he might eliminate her office, which is charged with coordinating America’s many intelligence agencies.

    Trump also called Carlson, whose millions-strong following on X is a key component of Trump’s political base, “kooky” for opposing a strike on Iran. Trump later walked that back, saying Carlson had called to apologise, and that Carlson “is a nice guy”.

    In Congress, one notable Trump ally opposed the Iran attack. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial congresswoman from Georgia, said:

    Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war […] This is not our fight. Peace is the answer.

    Trump’s decision has wide cross-party support

    It is certainly fair to look closely at Trump’s base and explore divisions and disagreements. However, it is highly likely that Trump’s dominant personality means he will keep the vast majority of his base together.

    More revealing about US politics is the support across the aisle for his Iran policy.

    Trump’s brash manner and divisive rhetoric make it difficult for Democrats to support him in any circumstance, but the US people’s disdain for Iran appears to be much stronger.

    In 1979, Iranian revolutionaries took 52 US diplomats hostage. The image of those captive hostages blindfolded and at the mercy of Iranian radicals is burned into older Americans’ brains.

    A generation later, Iran-backed militias killed more than 600 Americans in the war in Iraq. There are other sins Iran has committed against the US, included the attempted assassination of Trump. In this context, Trump’s policy is in the US mainstream.

    Why didn’t Trump consult Congress?

    It has been the standard practice of US presidents to brief the bipartisan leadership of Congress on key national security initiatives, such as a strikes on adversaries. While not a hard-and-fast rule, the practice can produce more bipartisan support for a president’s actions that he might otherwise have. It’s not unreasonable to think senior congressional Democrats might be more openly supportive of the Iran strike if they had been consulted in this manner.

    However, Trump and his administration did not do this, for a reason. There is little value in open bipartisanship in America today. Even though both parties are very close on Iran policy, neither wants that to be seen in public as cooperating across the aisle. Each party would much rather make the case to its base that it represents their interests and is not willing to compromise with the other party. Support from Democrats does not strengthen Trump, as his base is highly suspicious of the opposition party.

    The reverse is true for elected Democrats, including those in leadership. They will be more vulnerable from progressives in next year’s primary contests if they are seen as insufficiently resisting Trump. There is no Trump-like figure in their party to protect them from this base.

    In US politics today, nothing is more dangerous than agreeing with the other party. There is a premium value on publicly opposing your political adversaries, no matter what the issue. It makes for a foreign policy that appears more fractured than it actually is.

    Lester Munson receives funding from the U.S. Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He is affiliated with the Republican Party.

    ref. Trump’s decision to bomb Iran exposes fissures in US politics – https://theconversation.com/trumps-decision-to-bomb-iran-exposes-fissures-in-us-politics-259446

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University

    Katerina Elagina/Shutterstock

    One of the most sought-after items of 2025 isn’t a designer handbag or the latest tech gadget. It’s a plush elf with a snaggle-toothed grin.

    Labubu (拉布布) is a global sensation. From David Beckham and Rihanna to Dua Lipa and Blackpink’s Lisa, celebrities – and even members of the Thai royal family – have been spotted showcasing their Labubu collections.

    Created in 2015 by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung for his picture-book series The Monsters, Labubu gained mass popularity when toy company Pop Mart began releasing it as blind-box collectables in 2019. The toys are often sold in these blind-boxes, where people don’t know what make they’ve bought until after opening the box.

    The niche designer toy has since spiralled into a multi billion-dollar obsession. Plushies sell out within minutes, fans queue for hours, and rare editions like the human-sized mint-green-coloured Labubu have fetched over A$230,000 at auction.

    Labubu isn’t just a toy. It’s a glimpse of how China’s long-awaited soft power is beginning to take shape in unexpected ways.

    China’s accidental soft power icon?

    For years, the Chinese government has tried to cultivate a positive image abroad through the Belt and Road Initiative, introducing visa-free entry to boost tourism, and promoting homegrown brands.

    None of these efforts have matched the spontaneous global appeal of this small plush creature. Unlike Japan’s government-funded “Cool Japan” initiative launched in 2010, or South Korea’s highly coordinated export of creative industries, Labubu succeeded without central planning. It went viral organically: fanned by fandoms, fuelled by TikTok and amplified by celebrity endorsements.

    Now, China is starting to look “cool” to the outside world.

    Pop Mart’s blind-box sales model taps into the same reward mechanisms as online gaming. More than buying a toy, it’s about the thrill of unboxing the rarest edition, the social status of ownership, and the resale value of a seemingly childish product. This cultural product is emotionally charged and economically strategic.

    Labubu uses ‘blind boxes’ – where buyers don’t know what model they’ll get – to emotionally hook collectors.
    Tatiana Diuvbanova/Shutterstock

    For China, Labubu represents an unintentional yet potent form of soft power: a quirky figure that makes the country feel playful, creative and emotionally accessible.

    In an era when global perceptions of China are often shaped by geopolitics, surveillance, and authoritarianism, Labubu seems to offer something different – something disarming.

    How Japan and Korea use cultural exports

    Japan, long celebrated for its exports of anime, fashion, and food culture, launched its “Cool Japan” strategy in 2010 to formalise and promote its creative industries abroad.

    The initiative helped amplify global interest in sectors such as anime and cuisine but it often struggled with bureaucratic inefficiency, market misjudgements and unclear performance metrics.

    Many of the country’s cultural successes – from Pokémon and Studio Ghibli to ramen and izakaya – were largely driven by market forces and fan communities, rather than by the government.

    South Korea provides a more recent, effective model. The Korean Wave, or hallyu, has been heavily supported by state investment and infrastructure.

    From the film Parasite to global icons such as K-Pop band BTS, South Korea’s cultural output has earned international acclaim and helped rebrand the nation on the world stage.

    Importantly, it was a case of soft power being harnessed intentionally and strategically, with entertainment at the forefront of foreign policy.

    Labubu represents a third model: accidental soft power born from a commercial ecosystem in China increasingly focused on intellectual property (IP), lifestyle branding and consumer-driven trends.

    The emotional politics of toys

    Beyond its political implications, the Labubu craze reflects wider shifts in global consumer culture. Today’s toy market is no longer just for children.

    The adult “kidult” sector, driven by nostalgia, comfort-seeking, and collectability, is rising.

    The frenzy over Labubu is part of this trend, where millennials and Gen Z buyers invest in emotionally charged objects as expressions of identity, status and belonging.

    The popularity of labubu has seen long lines at PopMart shops around the world, like this one in South Jakarta.
    petanicupu/Shutterstock

    At the same time, Labubu represents a growing intersection between play and finance. The resale market treats plushies like speculative assets. Their scarcity creates value; their emotional resonance creates demand.

    It’s capitalism with a fuzzy face.

    Not everything is cuddly. In cities like London or Seoul, Pop Mart was forced to suspend sales after scuffles broke out among fans competing to buy the toys. And a surge in global counterfeits has raised growing concerns over IP protection and consumer trust.

    The rise of China’s soft power

    Labubu may look like a mischievous little elf, but it carries serious cultural weight.

    It reflects a China that is no longer just a producer of goods, but a producer of desire.

    It’s tempting to see Labubu as a fad like fidget spinners, Beanie Babies, or Tamagotchis. But it signals something deeper: a shift in how Chinese cultural products can evoke emotion, status and aspiration on a global scale.

    This tiny plush toy took nearly a decade to become a global sensation. China’s hopes of fully realising its soft power potential may take even longer. But if Labubu is any indication, the way forward may depend less on state-led campaigns and more on organic, bottom-up cultural momentum.

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    ref. Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power – https://theconversation.com/labubu-plushies-arent-just-toys-theyre-a-brand-new-frontier-for-chinese-soft-power-259146

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University

    Katerina Elagina/Shutterstock

    One of the most sought-after items of 2025 isn’t a designer handbag or the latest tech gadget. It’s a plush elf with a snaggle-toothed grin.

    Labubu (拉布布) is a global sensation. From David Beckham and Rihanna to Dua Lipa and Blackpink’s Lisa, celebrities – and even members of the Thai royal family – have been spotted showcasing their Labubu collections.

    Created in 2015 by Hong Kong artist Kasing Lung for his picture-book series The Monsters, Labubu gained mass popularity when toy company Pop Mart began releasing it as blind-box collectables in 2019. The toys are often sold in these blind-boxes, where people don’t know what make they’ve bought until after opening the box.

    The niche designer toy has since spiralled into a multi billion-dollar obsession. Plushies sell out within minutes, fans queue for hours, and rare editions like the human-sized mint-green-coloured Labubu have fetched over A$230,000 at auction.

    Labubu isn’t just a toy. It’s a glimpse of how China’s long-awaited soft power is beginning to take shape in unexpected ways.

    China’s accidental soft power icon?

    For years, the Chinese government has tried to cultivate a positive image abroad through the Belt and Road Initiative, introducing visa-free entry to boost tourism, and promoting homegrown brands.

    None of these efforts have matched the spontaneous global appeal of this small plush creature. Unlike Japan’s government-funded “Cool Japan” initiative launched in 2010, or South Korea’s highly coordinated export of creative industries, Labubu succeeded without central planning. It went viral organically: fanned by fandoms, fuelled by TikTok and amplified by celebrity endorsements.

    Now, China is starting to look “cool” to the outside world.

    Pop Mart’s blind-box sales model taps into the same reward mechanisms as online gaming. More than buying a toy, it’s about the thrill of unboxing the rarest edition, the social status of ownership, and the resale value of a seemingly childish product. This cultural product is emotionally charged and economically strategic.

    Labubu uses ‘blind boxes’ – where buyers don’t know what model they’ll get – to emotionally hook collectors.
    Tatiana Diuvbanova/Shutterstock

    For China, Labubu represents an unintentional yet potent form of soft power: a quirky figure that makes the country feel playful, creative and emotionally accessible.

    In an era when global perceptions of China are often shaped by geopolitics, surveillance, and authoritarianism, Labubu seems to offer something different – something disarming.

    How Japan and Korea use cultural exports

    Japan, long celebrated for its exports of anime, fashion, and food culture, launched its “Cool Japan” strategy in 2010 to formalise and promote its creative industries abroad.

    The initiative helped amplify global interest in sectors such as anime and cuisine but it often struggled with bureaucratic inefficiency, market misjudgements and unclear performance metrics.

    Many of the country’s cultural successes – from Pokémon and Studio Ghibli to ramen and izakaya – were largely driven by market forces and fan communities, rather than by the government.

    South Korea provides a more recent, effective model. The Korean Wave, or hallyu, has been heavily supported by state investment and infrastructure.

    From the film Parasite to global icons such as K-Pop band BTS, South Korea’s cultural output has earned international acclaim and helped rebrand the nation on the world stage.

    Importantly, it was a case of soft power being harnessed intentionally and strategically, with entertainment at the forefront of foreign policy.

    Labubu represents a third model: accidental soft power born from a commercial ecosystem in China increasingly focused on intellectual property (IP), lifestyle branding and consumer-driven trends.

    The emotional politics of toys

    Beyond its political implications, the Labubu craze reflects wider shifts in global consumer culture. Today’s toy market is no longer just for children.

    The adult “kidult” sector, driven by nostalgia, comfort-seeking, and collectability, is rising.

    The frenzy over Labubu is part of this trend, where millennials and Gen Z buyers invest in emotionally charged objects as expressions of identity, status and belonging.

    The popularity of labubu has seen long lines at PopMart shops around the world, like this one in South Jakarta.
    petanicupu/Shutterstock

    At the same time, Labubu represents a growing intersection between play and finance. The resale market treats plushies like speculative assets. Their scarcity creates value; their emotional resonance creates demand.

    It’s capitalism with a fuzzy face.

    Not everything is cuddly. In cities like London or Seoul, Pop Mart was forced to suspend sales after scuffles broke out among fans competing to buy the toys. And a surge in global counterfeits has raised growing concerns over IP protection and consumer trust.

    The rise of China’s soft power

    Labubu may look like a mischievous little elf, but it carries serious cultural weight.

    It reflects a China that is no longer just a producer of goods, but a producer of desire.

    It’s tempting to see Labubu as a fad like fidget spinners, Beanie Babies, or Tamagotchis. But it signals something deeper: a shift in how Chinese cultural products can evoke emotion, status and aspiration on a global scale.

    This tiny plush toy took nearly a decade to become a global sensation. China’s hopes of fully realising its soft power potential may take even longer. But if Labubu is any indication, the way forward may depend less on state-led campaigns and more on organic, bottom-up cultural momentum.

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    ref. Labubu plushies aren’t just toys. They’re a brand new frontier for Chinese soft power – https://theconversation.com/labubu-plushies-arent-just-toys-theyre-a-brand-new-frontier-for-chinese-soft-power-259146

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

    Unexpected severe turbulence injured crew and passengers on a Qantas Boeing 737 during descent at Brisbane on May 4 2024. The subsequent Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigation suggested the severity of the turbulence caught the captain by surprise.

    This is not an isolated event. Thunderstorms featuring severe wind gusts such as violent updrafts and downbursts are hazardous to aircraft. Downbursts in particular have been known to cause many serious accidents.

    Our new research suggests global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of wind gusts from thunderstorm “downbursts”, with serious consequences for air travel.

    We used machine learning techniques to identify the climate drivers causing more thunderstorm downbursts. Increased heat and moisture over eastern Australia turned out to be the key ingredients.

    The findings suggest air safety authorities and airlines in eastern Australia must be more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.

    The weather radar system on a 737 jet plane can detect a microburst just before it causes heavy turbulence.
    Qantas, annotated by the ATSB

    Warm, moist air spells trouble for planes

    Global warming increases the amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere. That’s because 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour.

    The extra moisture typically comes from adjacent warmer seas. It evaporates from the surface of the ocean and feeds clouds.

    Increased heat and water vapour fuels stronger thunderstorms. So climate change is expected to increase thunderstorm activity over eastern Australia

    For aircraft, the main problem with thunderstorms is the risk of hazardous, rapid changes in wind strength and direction at low levels.

    Small yet powerful

    Small downbursts, several kilometres wide, are especially dangerous. These “microbursts” can cause abrupt changes in wind gust speed and direction, creating turbulence that suddenly moves the plane in all directions, both horizontally and vertically.

    Microburst wind gusts can be extremely strong. Brisbane airport recorded a microburst wind gust at 157km per hour in November 2016. Three planes on the tarmac were extensively damaged.

    On descent or ascent, aircraft encountering microbursts can experience sudden, unexpected losses or gains in altitude. This has caused numerous aircraft accidents in the past. Microbursts will become increasingly problematic in a warming climate.

    Delta Flight 191 is the most famous aviation accident caused by a microburst | Smithsonian Channel Aviation Nation

    Microburst analysis and prediction

    Microbursts are very difficult to predict, because they are so small. So we used machine learning to identify the environmental factors most conducive to the formation of microbursts and associated severe wind gusts.

    We accessed observational data from the Bureau of Meteorology’s extensive archives. Then we applied eight different machine learning techniques to find the one that worked best.

    Machine learning is a field of study in artificial intelligence using algorithms and statistical models to enable computers to learn from data without explicit programming. It enables systems to identify patterns, make predictions and improve performance over time as they take in more information.

    We found atmospheric conditions in eastern Australia are increasingly favouring the development of stronger, more frequent thunderstorm microbursts.

    We investigated a microburst outbreak from a storm front in 2018. It produced severe surface wind gusts at six regional airports in New South Wales: Bourke, Walgett, Coonamble, Moree, Narrabri and Gunnedah.

    Regional airports in Australia and around the world often use small aircraft. Small planes with 4–50 passenger seats are more vulnerable to the strong, even extreme, wind gusts spawned by thunderstorm microbursts.

    Widespread consequences

    Our extensive regional case study identified the weather patterns that create severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia during the warmer months.

    High cloud water content creates a [downward force] [https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11215] in the cloud. This force induces a descending air current. When the heavier air reaches the ground, wind gusts spray out in multiple directions.

    A small yet powerful downburst can deflect a plane from it’s intended path of descent, pushing it down towards the ground.
    Mehmood, K., et al (2023) Fluids., CC BY

    These wind gusts endanger aircraft during takeoff and landing, because rapid wind shifts from tail winds to head winds can cause the aircraft to dangerously gain or lose altitude.

    Our analysis highlights the elevated aviation risks of increased atmospheric turbulence from thunderstorm microbursts across eastern Australia.

    Smaller aircraft at inland regional airports in southeastern Australia are especially vulnerable. But these sudden microburst-generated wind gusts will require monitoring by major east coast airports, such as Sydney and Brisbane.

    Beware of heightened microburst activity

    Flying has long been recognised as a very safe mode of travel, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per million flights.

    However, passenger numbers worldwide have increased dramatically, implying even a small risk increase could affect a large number of travellers.

    Previous research into climate-related risks to air travel has tended to focus on high-altitude cruising dangers, such as clear air turbulence and jet stream instability. In contrast, there has been less emphasis on dangers during low-level ascent and descent.

    Our research is among the first to detail the heightened climate risk to airlines from thunderstorm microbursts, especially during takeoff and landing. Airlines and air safety authorities should anticipate more strong microbursts. More frequent wind gust turbulence from microbursts is to be expected over eastern Australia, in our ongoing warming climate.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety – https://theconversation.com/freak-wind-gusts-made-worse-by-climate-change-threaten-airline-passenger-safety-258823

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

    Unexpected severe turbulence injured crew and passengers on a Qantas Boeing 737 during descent at Brisbane on May 4 2024. The subsequent Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigation suggested the severity of the turbulence caught the captain by surprise.

    This is not an isolated event. Thunderstorms featuring severe wind gusts such as violent updrafts and downbursts are hazardous to aircraft. Downbursts in particular have been known to cause many serious accidents.

    Our new research suggests global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of wind gusts from thunderstorm “downbursts”, with serious consequences for air travel.

    We used machine learning techniques to identify the climate drivers causing more thunderstorm downbursts. Increased heat and moisture over eastern Australia turned out to be the key ingredients.

    The findings suggest air safety authorities and airlines in eastern Australia must be more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.

    The weather radar system on a 737 jet plane can detect a microburst just before it causes heavy turbulence.
    Qantas, annotated by the ATSB

    Warm, moist air spells trouble for planes

    Global warming increases the amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere. That’s because 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour.

    The extra moisture typically comes from adjacent warmer seas. It evaporates from the surface of the ocean and feeds clouds.

    Increased heat and water vapour fuels stronger thunderstorms. So climate change is expected to increase thunderstorm activity over eastern Australia

    For aircraft, the main problem with thunderstorms is the risk of hazardous, rapid changes in wind strength and direction at low levels.

    Small yet powerful

    Small downbursts, several kilometres wide, are especially dangerous. These “microbursts” can cause abrupt changes in wind gust speed and direction, creating turbulence that suddenly moves the plane in all directions, both horizontally and vertically.

    Microburst wind gusts can be extremely strong. Brisbane airport recorded a microburst wind gust at 157km per hour in November 2016. Three planes on the tarmac were extensively damaged.

    On descent or ascent, aircraft encountering microbursts can experience sudden, unexpected losses or gains in altitude. This has caused numerous aircraft accidents in the past. Microbursts will become increasingly problematic in a warming climate.

    Delta Flight 191 is the most famous aviation accident caused by a microburst | Smithsonian Channel Aviation Nation

    Microburst analysis and prediction

    Microbursts are very difficult to predict, because they are so small. So we used machine learning to identify the environmental factors most conducive to the formation of microbursts and associated severe wind gusts.

    We accessed observational data from the Bureau of Meteorology’s extensive archives. Then we applied eight different machine learning techniques to find the one that worked best.

    Machine learning is a field of study in artificial intelligence using algorithms and statistical models to enable computers to learn from data without explicit programming. It enables systems to identify patterns, make predictions and improve performance over time as they take in more information.

    We found atmospheric conditions in eastern Australia are increasingly favouring the development of stronger, more frequent thunderstorm microbursts.

    We investigated a microburst outbreak from a storm front in 2018. It produced severe surface wind gusts at six regional airports in New South Wales: Bourke, Walgett, Coonamble, Moree, Narrabri and Gunnedah.

    Regional airports in Australia and around the world often use small aircraft. Small planes with 4–50 passenger seats are more vulnerable to the strong, even extreme, wind gusts spawned by thunderstorm microbursts.

    Widespread consequences

    Our extensive regional case study identified the weather patterns that create severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia during the warmer months.

    High cloud water content creates a [downward force] [https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11215] in the cloud. This force induces a descending air current. When the heavier air reaches the ground, wind gusts spray out in multiple directions.

    A small yet powerful downburst can deflect a plane from it’s intended path of descent, pushing it down towards the ground.
    Mehmood, K., et al (2023) Fluids., CC BY

    These wind gusts endanger aircraft during takeoff and landing, because rapid wind shifts from tail winds to head winds can cause the aircraft to dangerously gain or lose altitude.

    Our analysis highlights the elevated aviation risks of increased atmospheric turbulence from thunderstorm microbursts across eastern Australia.

    Smaller aircraft at inland regional airports in southeastern Australia are especially vulnerable. But these sudden microburst-generated wind gusts will require monitoring by major east coast airports, such as Sydney and Brisbane.

    Beware of heightened microburst activity

    Flying has long been recognised as a very safe mode of travel, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per million flights.

    However, passenger numbers worldwide have increased dramatically, implying even a small risk increase could affect a large number of travellers.

    Previous research into climate-related risks to air travel has tended to focus on high-altitude cruising dangers, such as clear air turbulence and jet stream instability. In contrast, there has been less emphasis on dangers during low-level ascent and descent.

    Our research is among the first to detail the heightened climate risk to airlines from thunderstorm microbursts, especially during takeoff and landing. Airlines and air safety authorities should anticipate more strong microbursts. More frequent wind gust turbulence from microbursts is to be expected over eastern Australia, in our ongoing warming climate.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety – https://theconversation.com/freak-wind-gusts-made-worse-by-climate-change-threaten-airline-passenger-safety-258823

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Shub, Obstetrician & Maternal Fetal Medicine specialist, The University of Melbourne

    How Australian pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is set to change, with new national guidelines released today.

    Changes are expected to lead to fewer diagnoses in women at lower risk, reducing the burden of extra monitoring and intervention. Meanwhile the changes focus care and support towards women and babies who will benefit most.

    These latest recommendations form the first update in screening for gestational diabetes in more than a decade, and potentially affect more than 280,000 pregnant women a year across Australia.

    The new guidelines, which we have been involved in writing, are released today by the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society and published in the Medical Journal of Australia.

    What is gestational diabetes? Why do we test for it?

    Gestational diabetes (also known as gestational diabetes mellitus) is one of the most common medical complications of pregnancy. It affects nearly one in five pregnancies in Australia.

    It is defined by abnormally high levels of glucose (sugar) in the blood that are first picked up during pregnancy.

    Most of the time gestational diabetes goes away after the birth. But women with gestational diabetes are at least seven times more likely to develop type 2 diabetes later in life.

    In Australia, routine screening for gestational diabetes is recommended for all pregnant women. This will continue.

    That’s because treatment reduces the risk of poorer pregnancy outcomes. This includes
    babies being born very large – a condition called macrosomia – which can lead to difficult births, and a caesarean. Treatment also reduces the risk of pre-eclampsia, when women have high blood pressure and protein in their urine, and other serious pregnancy complications.

    Screening for gestational diabetes is also an opportunity to identify women who may benefit from diabetes prevention programs and ways to support their long-term health, including support with nutrition and physical activity.

    Why is testing changing?

    Most women benefit from detection and treatment. However, for some women, a diagnosis can have negative impacts. This often relates to how care is delivered.

    Women have described feeling shame and stigma after the diagnosis. Others report challenges accessing the care and support they need during pregnancy. This may include access to specialist doctors, allied health professionals and clinics. Some women have restricted their diet in an unhealthy way, without appropriate supervision by a health professional. Some have had to change their preferred maternity care provider or location of birth because their pregnancy is now considered higher risk.

    So we must diagnose the condition in women when the benefits outweigh the potential costs.

    Which pregnant women need a blood test and when? And when are other types of testing warranted?
    Elizaveta Galitckaia/Shutterstock

    When are blood sugar levels too high?

    Diagnosing gestational diabetes is based on having blood glucose levels above a certain threshold.

    However, there is no clear level above which the risk of complications starts to increase. And determining the best thresholds to identify who does, and who does not, have gestational diabetes has been subject to much research and debate.

    Globally, screening approaches and diagnostic criteria vary substantially. There are differences in who is recommended to be screened, when in pregnancy screening should occur, which tests should be used, and what the diagnostic glucose levels should be.

    So, what changes?

    The new recommendations are the result of reviewing up-to-date evidence with input from a wide range of professional and consumer groups.

    Screening will continue

    All pregnant women who don’t already have a diagnosis of pre-pregnancy diabetes, or gestational diabetes, will still be recommended screening at between 24 and 28 weeks’ gestation. They’ll still have an oral glucose tolerance test, a measure of how the body processes sugar. The test involves fasting overnight, and having a blood test in the morning before drinking a sugary drink. Then there are two more blood tests over two hours. However, fewer women will have this test twice in their pregnancy.

    Changes mean more targeted care

    The following changes mean health services should be able to reorient resources to ensure women have access to the care they need to support healthier pregnancies, including early support for women who need it most:

    • women with risk factors of existing, undiagnosed diabetes (such as a higher body-mass index or BMI, or a previous large baby) will be screened in the first trimester, with a single, non-fasting blood test (known as HbA1c)

    • fewer women will have an oral glucose tolerance test early in the pregnancy, ideally between ten and 14 weeks gestation. This early testing will be reserved for women with specific risk factors, such as gestational diabetes in a previous pregnancy, or a high level on the HbA1c test

    • women will only be diagnosed if their blood glucose level is above new, higher cut-off points for the oral glucose tolerance test, for tests conducted early or later in the pregnancy.

    Which tests do I need?

    These changes will be implemented over coming months. So women are encouraged to speak to their maternity care provider about how the changes apply to them.

    Alexis Shub is a board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society. She has received research funding from ADIPS.

    Matthew Hare has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Diabetes Australia, Australian Diabetes Society, Royal Australasian College of Physicians, Viertel Charitable Foundation and Australian government Department of Health. He has received honoraria for consultancies, steering committees and invited talks from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim and AstraZeneca. He is president and board chair of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society, and a member of the Australian Diabetes Society and Endocrine Society of Australia.

    Susan de Jersey has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Foundation, Diabetes Australia, Metro North Health. She is a member of Dietitians Australia, Australian Diabetes Educators Association, and is vice chair and board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society.

    ref. How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you – https://theconversation.com/how-pregnant-women-are-tested-for-gestational-diabetes-is-changing-heres-what-this-means-for-you-259260

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexis Shub, Obstetrician & Maternal Fetal Medicine specialist, The University of Melbourne

    How Australian pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is set to change, with new national guidelines released today.

    Changes are expected to lead to fewer diagnoses in women at lower risk, reducing the burden of extra monitoring and intervention. Meanwhile the changes focus care and support towards women and babies who will benefit most.

    These latest recommendations form the first update in screening for gestational diabetes in more than a decade, and potentially affect more than 280,000 pregnant women a year across Australia.

    The new guidelines, which we have been involved in writing, are released today by the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society and published in the Medical Journal of Australia.

    What is gestational diabetes? Why do we test for it?

    Gestational diabetes (also known as gestational diabetes mellitus) is one of the most common medical complications of pregnancy. It affects nearly one in five pregnancies in Australia.

    It is defined by abnormally high levels of glucose (sugar) in the blood that are first picked up during pregnancy.

    Most of the time gestational diabetes goes away after the birth. But women with gestational diabetes are at least seven times more likely to develop type 2 diabetes later in life.

    In Australia, routine screening for gestational diabetes is recommended for all pregnant women. This will continue.

    That’s because treatment reduces the risk of poorer pregnancy outcomes. This includes
    babies being born very large – a condition called macrosomia – which can lead to difficult births, and a caesarean. Treatment also reduces the risk of pre-eclampsia, when women have high blood pressure and protein in their urine, and other serious pregnancy complications.

    Screening for gestational diabetes is also an opportunity to identify women who may benefit from diabetes prevention programs and ways to support their long-term health, including support with nutrition and physical activity.

    Why is testing changing?

    Most women benefit from detection and treatment. However, for some women, a diagnosis can have negative impacts. This often relates to how care is delivered.

    Women have described feeling shame and stigma after the diagnosis. Others report challenges accessing the care and support they need during pregnancy. This may include access to specialist doctors, allied health professionals and clinics. Some women have restricted their diet in an unhealthy way, without appropriate supervision by a health professional. Some have had to change their preferred maternity care provider or location of birth because their pregnancy is now considered higher risk.

    So we must diagnose the condition in women when the benefits outweigh the potential costs.

    Which pregnant women need a blood test and when? And when are other types of testing warranted?
    Elizaveta Galitckaia/Shutterstock

    When are blood sugar levels too high?

    Diagnosing gestational diabetes is based on having blood glucose levels above a certain threshold.

    However, there is no clear level above which the risk of complications starts to increase. And determining the best thresholds to identify who does, and who does not, have gestational diabetes has been subject to much research and debate.

    Globally, screening approaches and diagnostic criteria vary substantially. There are differences in who is recommended to be screened, when in pregnancy screening should occur, which tests should be used, and what the diagnostic glucose levels should be.

    So, what changes?

    The new recommendations are the result of reviewing up-to-date evidence with input from a wide range of professional and consumer groups.

    Screening will continue

    All pregnant women who don’t already have a diagnosis of pre-pregnancy diabetes, or gestational diabetes, will still be recommended screening at between 24 and 28 weeks’ gestation. They’ll still have an oral glucose tolerance test, a measure of how the body processes sugar. The test involves fasting overnight, and having a blood test in the morning before drinking a sugary drink. Then there are two more blood tests over two hours. However, fewer women will have this test twice in their pregnancy.

    Changes mean more targeted care

    The following changes mean health services should be able to reorient resources to ensure women have access to the care they need to support healthier pregnancies, including early support for women who need it most:

    • women with risk factors of existing, undiagnosed diabetes (such as a higher body-mass index or BMI, or a previous large baby) will be screened in the first trimester, with a single, non-fasting blood test (known as HbA1c)

    • fewer women will have an oral glucose tolerance test early in the pregnancy, ideally between ten and 14 weeks gestation. This early testing will be reserved for women with specific risk factors, such as gestational diabetes in a previous pregnancy, or a high level on the HbA1c test

    • women will only be diagnosed if their blood glucose level is above new, higher cut-off points for the oral glucose tolerance test, for tests conducted early or later in the pregnancy.

    Which tests do I need?

    These changes will be implemented over coming months. So women are encouraged to speak to their maternity care provider about how the changes apply to them.

    Alexis Shub is a board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society. She has received research funding from ADIPS.

    Matthew Hare has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Diabetes Australia, Australian Diabetes Society, Royal Australasian College of Physicians, Viertel Charitable Foundation and Australian government Department of Health. He has received honoraria for consultancies, steering committees and invited talks from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim and AstraZeneca. He is president and board chair of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society, and a member of the Australian Diabetes Society and Endocrine Society of Australia.

    Susan de Jersey has received research funding from the NHMRC, MRFF, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Foundation, Diabetes Australia, Metro North Health. She is a member of Dietitians Australia, Australian Diabetes Educators Association, and is vice chair and board director of the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy Society.

    ref. How pregnant women are tested for gestational diabetes is changing. Here’s what this means for you – https://theconversation.com/how-pregnant-women-are-tested-for-gestational-diabetes-is-changing-heres-what-this-means-for-you-259260

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick William Smith, Associate Investigator in Nutritional Science, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Shutterstock/Alesia Bierliezova

    The latest update to the New Zealand food composition database, a comprehensive collection of nutrient data collated jointly by Plant & Food Research and the Ministry of Health, brings more than just numbers: it adds insights into culturally important foods and their role in diets.

    For the first time, certain traditional foods such as rēwena (Māori bread) and ingredients such as natto, paneer, jackfruit and lentils are included. Alongside these are modern supermarket staples, including lactose-free yoghurts and dairy-free cheeses.

    As New Zealand’s population continues to diversify and people’s food choices evolve, the database is keeping pace, ensuring everyone’s plate is represented. The latest update introduces 191 new or updated food records, each with a detailed list of all nutrients, from a wide range of culturally relevant, plant-based and speciality diet foods. These include:

    • traditional Māori foods such as rēwena

    • ethnic staples, including natto, paneer, black beans

    • high-protein yoghurts, dairy-free cheeses and lactose-free options, reflecting market trends.

    New Zealanders’ changing food habits

    New Zealand’s population is becoming more ethnically diverse. The 2023 census shows nearly a third of New Zealand residents were born overseas and the population of people with Asian ethnicity is the fastest growing in the country. Our supermarkets and food services reflect these changes in their offering.

    At the same time, demand is growing for plant-based options, allergen-friendly foods and products tailored to different dietary needs. The database update captures these shifts, offering data on foods that might previously have been overlooked or underestimated.

    For example, including rēwena means nutrition professionals working with Māori communities or individuals can offer tailored advice using culturally relevant foods. Including natto or paneer gives dietitians more information to support New Zealanders of Asian or Indian heritage.

    Rēwena includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads.
    Shutterstock/EQRoy

    The newly added foods weren’t chosen at random. They reflect real changes in the way New Zealanders eat, informed by surveys that reflect the quantities of foods consumed and also how important they are for delivering essential nutrients. The additions also capture new products available in supermarkets or significant changes in recipes.

    Foods are collected from around the country to represent our geographically spread population. They are then sent for independent lab analysis to quantify their content of macro (proteins, carbohydrates, fats) and micronutrients (minerals and vitamins).

    Including new foods ensures the database stays relevant for a modern, multicultural population and provides accurate nutrition information for consumers, healthcare providers, food businesses and researchers. This facilitates future national surveys to more accurately capture the diversity of New Zealand diets and their implications for population nutrition.

    Where these new foods sit in a healthy diet

    With the addition of 74 new food components, including detailed profiles of fatty acids and a new method for measuring dietary fibre, the database doesn’t just tell us what is in our food, but also how these foods contribute to nutrition.

    Many of the newly included foods are rich in protein, dietary fibre or plant-based nutrients. This is true for rēwena, which includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads. Black beans and lentils are affordable sources of protein and iron, while jackfruit offers a low-fat, meat-like texture for vegetarian meals.

    The database is reviewed and updated every two years to reflect what people are actually eating. With 2,857 foods and 434 nutrient components now in the system, it offers an unparalleled window into New Zealand’s food supply and provides information to support national nutrition surveys and dietary intake studies.

    The data also supports educational resources, such as those produced by organisations that encourage New Zealanders to eat fruits and vegetables.

    The food composition database is New Zealand’s most comprehensive source of high-quality nutrient data. It is used by researchers, the food industry, public health agencies and regulators to develop and reformulate products, create accurate nutrition labels, model dietary trends and monitor how changing food habits affect nutrition.

    Nick William Smith works for Plant & Food Research.

    Carolyn Elizabeth Lister does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database – https://theconversation.com/nzs-changing-diet-maori-bread-and-jackfruit-join-other-new-foods-in-the-countrys-nutritional-database-257791

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick William Smith, Associate Investigator in Nutritional Science, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Shutterstock/Alesia Bierliezova

    The latest update to the New Zealand food composition database, a comprehensive collection of nutrient data collated jointly by Plant & Food Research and the Ministry of Health, brings more than just numbers: it adds insights into culturally important foods and their role in diets.

    For the first time, certain traditional foods such as rēwena (Māori bread) and ingredients such as natto, paneer, jackfruit and lentils are included. Alongside these are modern supermarket staples, including lactose-free yoghurts and dairy-free cheeses.

    As New Zealand’s population continues to diversify and people’s food choices evolve, the database is keeping pace, ensuring everyone’s plate is represented. The latest update introduces 191 new or updated food records, each with a detailed list of all nutrients, from a wide range of culturally relevant, plant-based and speciality diet foods. These include:

    • traditional Māori foods such as rēwena

    • ethnic staples, including natto, paneer, black beans

    • high-protein yoghurts, dairy-free cheeses and lactose-free options, reflecting market trends.

    New Zealanders’ changing food habits

    New Zealand’s population is becoming more ethnically diverse. The 2023 census shows nearly a third of New Zealand residents were born overseas and the population of people with Asian ethnicity is the fastest growing in the country. Our supermarkets and food services reflect these changes in their offering.

    At the same time, demand is growing for plant-based options, allergen-friendly foods and products tailored to different dietary needs. The database update captures these shifts, offering data on foods that might previously have been overlooked or underestimated.

    For example, including rēwena means nutrition professionals working with Māori communities or individuals can offer tailored advice using culturally relevant foods. Including natto or paneer gives dietitians more information to support New Zealanders of Asian or Indian heritage.

    Rēwena includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads.
    Shutterstock/EQRoy

    The newly added foods weren’t chosen at random. They reflect real changes in the way New Zealanders eat, informed by surveys that reflect the quantities of foods consumed and also how important they are for delivering essential nutrients. The additions also capture new products available in supermarkets or significant changes in recipes.

    Foods are collected from around the country to represent our geographically spread population. They are then sent for independent lab analysis to quantify their content of macro (proteins, carbohydrates, fats) and micronutrients (minerals and vitamins).

    Including new foods ensures the database stays relevant for a modern, multicultural population and provides accurate nutrition information for consumers, healthcare providers, food businesses and researchers. This facilitates future national surveys to more accurately capture the diversity of New Zealand diets and their implications for population nutrition.

    Where these new foods sit in a healthy diet

    With the addition of 74 new food components, including detailed profiles of fatty acids and a new method for measuring dietary fibre, the database doesn’t just tell us what is in our food, but also how these foods contribute to nutrition.

    Many of the newly included foods are rich in protein, dietary fibre or plant-based nutrients. This is true for rēwena, which includes potato and is higher in protein and dietary fibre than most white breads. Black beans and lentils are affordable sources of protein and iron, while jackfruit offers a low-fat, meat-like texture for vegetarian meals.

    The database is reviewed and updated every two years to reflect what people are actually eating. With 2,857 foods and 434 nutrient components now in the system, it offers an unparalleled window into New Zealand’s food supply and provides information to support national nutrition surveys and dietary intake studies.

    The data also supports educational resources, such as those produced by organisations that encourage New Zealanders to eat fruits and vegetables.

    The food composition database is New Zealand’s most comprehensive source of high-quality nutrient data. It is used by researchers, the food industry, public health agencies and regulators to develop and reformulate products, create accurate nutrition labels, model dietary trends and monitor how changing food habits affect nutrition.

    Nick William Smith works for Plant & Food Research.

    Carolyn Elizabeth Lister does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. NZ’s changing diet: Māori bread and jackfruit join other new foods in the country’s nutritional database – https://theconversation.com/nzs-changing-diet-maori-bread-and-jackfruit-join-other-new-foods-in-the-countrys-nutritional-database-257791

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Global warming is changing cloud patterns. That means more global warming

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University

    Caleb Weiner / Unsplash

    At any given time, about two-thirds of Earth’s surface is covered by clouds. Overall, they make the planet much cooler than it would be without them.

    But as Earth gets warmer, mostly due to the rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from humans burning fossil fuels, clouds are changing too. And that might already be causing more warming – adding to the greenhouse heat boost, and changing clouds even more.

    Over the past few years, the world’s average temperature has increased more than climate scientists were expecting. In our latest research, led by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, we show that changes in clouds have made a significant contribution to turning up the thermostat.

    Clouds and climate

    Clouds help to keep Earth cool by reflecting sunlight back out to space before it can reach the ground. But not all clouds are equal.

    Shiny, white clouds reflect away more sunlight – especially when they are closer to the equator, in the parts of Earth that receive the most sun. Grey, broken clouds reflect less sunlight, as do clouds closer to the poles where less light falls.

    Research published last year showed that Earth has been absorbing more sunlight than the greenhouse effect alone can explain. Clouds were involved, but it wasn’t clear exactly how.

    Bright cloud zones are shrinking

    Our new study shows what is happening. The areas covered by highly reflective clouds are shrinking. At the same time, the areas containing broken, less reflective clouds are growing.

    The net effect is that additional energy from sunlight is reaching Earth’s surface. Here it is absorbed, leading to extra heating.

    We also looked at the effect of changes in the properties of the highly reflective clouds, caused by things such as changes in the amount of aerosol pollution in the atmosphere. However, we found these effects are much smaller than the effect of the change in area.

    The global picture

    In the big picture, Earth’s wind patterns are driven by hot air rising near the equator and the rotation of the planet. This creates huge, looping currents of atmospheric circulation around the globe.

    Local weather systems – the kind that determine the location and type of clouds – depend on these major, large-scale wind systems. The major circulation patterns in the atmosphere are changing as a result of global warming.

    We found much of the cloud action is taking place at the edges of these major wind systems.

    Cloud cover is changing in several parts of Earth.
    NASA Earth Observatory

    Highly reflective clouds are on the decline in a region near the equator called the intertropical convergence zone, and also two other bands called the storm tracks, which lie between 30 and 40 degrees of latitude.

    At the same time the subtropical trade-wind regions, home to ever-present but less reflective broken clouds, are expanding.

    A feedback loop

    In short, the global warming induced by increased greenhouse gases changes the major wind systems on Earth. This in turn reduces the area of highly reflective clouds, leading to additional warming.

    Warming changes wind patterns, which changes cloud patterns, which results in more warming. This is what we call a “positive feedback” in the climate system: warming leads to more warming.

    We still have a lot to learn about the details of this feedback loop. Our research will use ongoing satellite-based observations of clouds and how much energy Earth receives and radiates back out to space.

    Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    ref. Global warming is changing cloud patterns. That means more global warming – https://theconversation.com/global-warming-is-changing-cloud-patterns-that-means-more-global-warming-259376

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Global warming is changing cloud patterns. That means more global warming

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Jakob, Director, ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University

    Caleb Weiner / Unsplash

    At any given time, about two-thirds of Earth’s surface is covered by clouds. Overall, they make the planet much cooler than it would be without them.

    But as Earth gets warmer, mostly due to the rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from humans burning fossil fuels, clouds are changing too. And that might already be causing more warming – adding to the greenhouse heat boost, and changing clouds even more.

    Over the past few years, the world’s average temperature has increased more than climate scientists were expecting. In our latest research, led by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, we show that changes in clouds have made a significant contribution to turning up the thermostat.

    Clouds and climate

    Clouds help to keep Earth cool by reflecting sunlight back out to space before it can reach the ground. But not all clouds are equal.

    Shiny, white clouds reflect away more sunlight – especially when they are closer to the equator, in the parts of Earth that receive the most sun. Grey, broken clouds reflect less sunlight, as do clouds closer to the poles where less light falls.

    Research published last year showed that Earth has been absorbing more sunlight than the greenhouse effect alone can explain. Clouds were involved, but it wasn’t clear exactly how.

    Bright cloud zones are shrinking

    Our new study shows what is happening. The areas covered by highly reflective clouds are shrinking. At the same time, the areas containing broken, less reflective clouds are growing.

    The net effect is that additional energy from sunlight is reaching Earth’s surface. Here it is absorbed, leading to extra heating.

    We also looked at the effect of changes in the properties of the highly reflective clouds, caused by things such as changes in the amount of aerosol pollution in the atmosphere. However, we found these effects are much smaller than the effect of the change in area.

    The global picture

    In the big picture, Earth’s wind patterns are driven by hot air rising near the equator and the rotation of the planet. This creates huge, looping currents of atmospheric circulation around the globe.

    Local weather systems – the kind that determine the location and type of clouds – depend on these major, large-scale wind systems. The major circulation patterns in the atmosphere are changing as a result of global warming.

    We found much of the cloud action is taking place at the edges of these major wind systems.

    Cloud cover is changing in several parts of Earth.
    NASA Earth Observatory

    Highly reflective clouds are on the decline in a region near the equator called the intertropical convergence zone, and also two other bands called the storm tracks, which lie between 30 and 40 degrees of latitude.

    At the same time the subtropical trade-wind regions, home to ever-present but less reflective broken clouds, are expanding.

    A feedback loop

    In short, the global warming induced by increased greenhouse gases changes the major wind systems on Earth. This in turn reduces the area of highly reflective clouds, leading to additional warming.

    Warming changes wind patterns, which changes cloud patterns, which results in more warming. This is what we call a “positive feedback” in the climate system: warming leads to more warming.

    We still have a lot to learn about the details of this feedback loop. Our research will use ongoing satellite-based observations of clouds and how much energy Earth receives and radiates back out to space.

    Christian Jakob receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    ref. Global warming is changing cloud patterns. That means more global warming – https://theconversation.com/global-warming-is-changing-cloud-patterns-that-means-more-global-warming-259376

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pro-independence advocates urge MSG to elevate West Papua membership

    By Scott Waide, RNZ Pacific PNG correspondent

    Two international organisations are leading a call for the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) to elevate the membership status of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) at their upcoming summit in Honiara in September.

    The collective, led by International Parliamentarians for West Papua (IPWP) and International Lawyers for West Papua (ILWP), has again highlighted the urgent need for greater international oversight and diplomatic engagement in the West Papua region.

    This influential group includes PNG’s National Capital District governor Powes Parkop, UK’s former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, and New Zealand’s former Green Party MP Catherine Delahunty.

    The ULMWP currently holds observer status within the MSG, a regional body comprising Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) of New Caledonia.

    A statement by the organisations said upgrading the ULMWP’s membership is “within the remit of the MSG” and requires a consensus among member states.

    They appeal to the Agreement Establishing the MSG, which undertakes to “promote, coordinate and strengthen…exchange of Melanesian cultures, traditions and values, sovereign equality . . . to further MSG members’ shared goals of economic growth, sustainable development, good governance, peace, and security,” considering that all these ambitions would be advanced by upgrading ULMWP membership.

    However, Indonesia’s associate membership in the MSG, granted in 2015, has become a significant point of contention, particularly for West Papuan self-determination advocates.

    Strategic move by Jakarta
    This inclusion is widely seen as a strategic manoeuvre by Jakarta to counter growing regional support for West Papuan independence.

    The ULMWP and its supporters consistently question why Indonesia, as the administering power over West Papua, should hold any status within a forum intended to champion Melanesian interests, arguing that Indonesia’s presence effectively stifles critical discussions about West Papua’s self-determination, creating a diplomatic barrier to genuine dialogue and accountability within the very body meant to serve Melanesian peoples.

    Given Papua New Guinea’s historical record within the MSG, its likely response at the upcoming summit in Honiara will be characterised by a delicate balancing act.

    While Papua New Guinea has expressed concerns regarding human rights in West Papua and supported calls for a UN Human Rights mission, it has consistently maintained respect for Indonesia’s sovereignty over the region.

    Past statements from PNG leaders, including Prime Minister James Marape, have emphasised Indonesia’s responsibility for addressing internal issues in West Papua and have noted that the ULMWP has not met the MSG’s criteria for full membership.

    Further complicating the situation, the IPWP and ILWP report that West Papua remains largely cut off from international scrutiny.

    Strict journalist ban
    A strict ban on journalists entering the region means accounts of severe and ongoing human rights abuses often go unreported.

    The joint statement highlights a critical lack of transparency, noting that “very little international oversight” exists.

    A key point of contention is Indonesia’s failure to honour its commitments; despite the 2023 MSG leaders’ summit urging the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to conduct a human rights mission to West Papua before the 2024 summit, Indonesia has yet to facilitate this visit.

    The IPWP/ILWP statement says the continued refusal is a violation of its obligations as a UN member state.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Starving Gaza civilians toll climbs at Israeli humanitarian ‘death traps’

    Pacific Media Watch

    BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

    Kia ora koutou,

    I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

    Israeli forces killed over 200 Palestinians in Gaza over the last 48 hours, injuring over 1037. Countless more remain under the rubble and in unreachable zones. 450 killed seeking aid, 39 missing, and around 3500 injured at the joint US-Israeli humanitarian foundation “death traps”.

    Forty one  killed by Israeli forces since dawn today, including three children in an attack east of Gaza City. Gaza’s Al-Quds brigades destroyed a military bulldozer in southern Gaza.

    *

    Settlers, protected by soldiers, violently attacked Palestinian residents near the southern village of Susiya last night, including children. The West Bank siege continues with Israeli occupation forces severely restricting movement between Palestinian towns and cities. Continued military/settler assaults across the occupied territories.

    *

    Iranian strikes targeted Ben Gurion airport and several military sites in the Israeli territories. Israeli regime discuss a 3.6 billion shekel defence budget increase.

    *

    400 killed and 3000 injured by Israel’s attacks on Iran, in the nine days since Israel’s aggression began. Iranian authorities have arrested dozens more linked to Israeli intelligence, and cut internet for the last three days to prevent internal drone attacks from agents within their territories.

    Israeli strikes have targeted a wide range of sites; missile depots, nuclear facilities, residential areas, and reportedly six ambulances today.

    Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ group slams Israeli ‘hoodwinking’ of US over nuclear strikes – Peters calls for talks

    Asia Pacific Report

    The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa has called on New Zealanders to condemn the US bombing of Iran.

    PSNA co-chair Maher Nazzal said in a statement that he hoped the New Zealand government would be critical of the US for its war escalation.

    “Israel has once again hoodwinked the United States into fighting Israel’s wars,” he said.

    “Israel’s Prime Minister has [been declaring] Iran to be on the point of producing nuclear weapons since the 1990s.

    “It’s all part of his big plan for expulsion of Palestinians from Palestine to create a Greater Israel, and regime change for the entire region.”

    Israel knew that Arab and European countries would “fall in behind these plans” and in many cases actually help implement them.

    “It is a dreadful day for the Palestinians. Netanyahu’s forces will be turned back onto them in Gaza and the West Bank.”

    ‘Dreadful day’ for Middle East
    “It is just as dreadful day for the whole Middle East.

    “Trump has tried to add Iran to the disasters of US foreign policy in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. The US simply doesn’t care how many people will die.”

    New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters “acknowledged the development in the past 24 hours”, including President Trump’s announcement of the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    He described it as “extremely worrying” military action in the Middle East, and it was critical further escalation was avoided.

    “New Zealand strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy. We urge all parties to return to talks,” he said.

    “Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

    The Australian government said in a statement that Canberra had been clear that Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme had been a “threat to international peace and security”.

    It also noted that the US President had declared that “now is the time for peace”.

    “The security situation in the region is highly volatile,” said the statement. “We continue to call for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy.”

    Iran calls attack ‘outrageous’
    However, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the “outrageous” US attacks on Iran’s “peaceful nuclear installations” would have “everlasting consequences”.

    His comments come as an Iranian missile attack on central and northern Israel wounded at least 23 people.

    In an interview with Al Jazeera, Dr Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, said the people of Iran feared that Israel’s goals stretched far beyond its stated goal of destroying the country’s nuclear and missile programmes.

    “Many in Iran believe that Israel’s end game, really, is to turn Iran into Libya, into Iraq, what it was after the US invasion in 2003, and/or Afghanistan.

    “And so the dismemberment of Iran is what Netanyahu has in mind, at least as far as Tehran is concerned,” he said.

    US attack ‘more or less guarantees’ Iran will be nuclear-armed within decade

    ‘No evidence’ of Iran ‘threat’
    Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said there had been “absolutely no evidence” that Iran posed a threat.

    “Neither was it existential, nor imminent,” he told Al Jazeera.

    “We have to keep in mind the reality of the situation, which is that two nuclear-equipped countries attacked a non-nuclear weapons state without having gotten attacked first.

    “Israel was not attacked by Iran — it started that war; the United States was not attacked by Iran — it started this confrontation at this point.”

    Dr Parsi added that the attacks on Iran would “send shockwaves” throughout the world.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ group slams Israeli ‘hoodwinking’ of US over nuclear strikes – Peters calls for talks

    Asia Pacific Report

    The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa has called on New Zealanders to condemn the US bombing of Iran.

    PSNA co-chair Maher Nazzal said in a statement that he hoped the New Zealand government would be critical of the US for its war escalation.

    “Israel has once again hoodwinked the United States into fighting Israel’s wars,” he said.

    “Israel’s Prime Minister has [been declaring] Iran to be on the point of producing nuclear weapons since the 1990s.

    “It’s all part of his big plan for expulsion of Palestinians from Palestine to create a Greater Israel, and regime change for the entire region.”

    Israel knew that Arab and European countries would “fall in behind these plans” and in many cases actually help implement them.

    “It is a dreadful day for the Palestinians. Netanyahu’s forces will be turned back onto them in Gaza and the West Bank.”

    ‘Dreadful day’ for Middle East
    “It is just as dreadful day for the whole Middle East.

    “Trump has tried to add Iran to the disasters of US foreign policy in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. The US simply doesn’t care how many people will die.”

    New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters “acknowledged the development in the past 24 hours”, including President Trump’s announcement of the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    He described it as “extremely worrying” military action in the Middle East, and it was critical further escalation was avoided.

    “New Zealand strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy. We urge all parties to return to talks,” he said.

    “Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

    The Australian government said in a statement that Canberra had been clear that Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme had been a “threat to international peace and security”.

    It also noted that the US President had declared that “now is the time for peace”.

    “The security situation in the region is highly volatile,” said the statement. “We continue to call for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy.”

    Iran calls attack ‘outrageous’
    However, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the “outrageous” US attacks on Iran’s “peaceful nuclear installations” would have “everlasting consequences”.

    His comments come as an Iranian missile attack on central and northern Israel wounded at least 23 people.

    In an interview with Al Jazeera, Dr Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, said the people of Iran feared that Israel’s goals stretched far beyond its stated goal of destroying the country’s nuclear and missile programmes.

    “Many in Iran believe that Israel’s end game, really, is to turn Iran into Libya, into Iraq, what it was after the US invasion in 2003, and/or Afghanistan.

    “And so the dismemberment of Iran is what Netanyahu has in mind, at least as far as Tehran is concerned,” he said.

    US attack ‘more or less guarantees’ Iran will be nuclear-armed within decade

    ‘No evidence’ of Iran ‘threat’
    Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said there had been “absolutely no evidence” that Iran posed a threat.

    “Neither was it existential, nor imminent,” he told Al Jazeera.

    “We have to keep in mind the reality of the situation, which is that two nuclear-equipped countries attacked a non-nuclear weapons state without having gotten attacked first.

    “Israel was not attacked by Iran — it started that war; the United States was not attacked by Iran — it started this confrontation at this point.”

    Dr Parsi added that the attacks on Iran would “send shockwaves” throughout the world.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Dwyer, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania

    The jagged silhouette of a B2 stealth bomber seen during a 2015 flyover in the US. Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images

    Late on Saturday night, local time, the United States carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, marking its open participation in the conflict between Iran and Israel.

    The US says it fired 30 submarine-launched missiles at the sites in Natanz and Isfahan, as well as dropping more than a dozen “bunker buster” bombs at Fordow and Natanz.

    The kind of bomb in question is the extremely destructive GBU-57 Massive Ordance Penetrator, or MOP, which weighs around 13.5 tonnes.

    The attacks raise a lot of questions. What are these enormous bombs? Why did the US feel it had to get involved in the conflict? And, going forward, what does it mean for Iran’s nuclear ambitions?

    What are ‘bunker busters’, and why are they used?

    Bunker busters are weapons designed to destroy heavily protected facilities such as bunkers deep underground, beyond the reach of normal bombs.

    Bunker busters are designed to bury themselves into the ground before detonating. This allows more of the explosive force to penetrate into the ground, rather than travelling through the air or across the surface.

    Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan are built deep underground. Estimates suggest that Fordow for example could be 80m beneath the surface, and capped with layers of reinforced concrete and soil.

    What is the MOP?

    The bunker buster used in this particular operation is the largest in the US arsenal. Leaving aside nuclear weapons, the MOP is the largest known buster buster in the world.

    Weighing some 13.5 tonnes, the MOP is believed to be able to penetrate up to 60 metres below ground in the right conditions. It is not known how many the US possesses, but the numbers are thought to be small (perhaps 20 or so in total).

    We also don’t know exactly how many were used in Iran, though some reports say it was 14. However, it is likely to be a significant portion of the US MOP arsenal.

    Why does only the US possess this capability?

    The US is not the only state with bunker-busting weaponry. However, the size of MOP means it requires very specialised bombers to carry and drop it.

    Only the B2 stealth bomber is currently able to deploy the MOP. Each B2 can carry at most two MOPs at a time. Around seven of America’s 19 operational B2s were used in the Iran operation.

    There has been some consideration whether large transport aircraft such as the C-130 Hercules could be modified to carry and drop the MOP from its rear cargo doors. While this would allow other countries (including Israel) to deploy the MOP, it is for now purely hypothetical.

    Why has the US (apparently) used them in Iran

    The Trump administration claims Iran may be only a few weeks from possessing a nuclear weapon, and that it needed to act now to destroy Iranian nuclear enrichment sites. This claim is notably at odds with published assessments from the US intelligence community.

    However, Israel lacks bunker busting weaponry sufficient to damage the deeply buried and fortified enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

    An F-15E Strike Eagle releases a GBU-28 ‘bunker buster’ laser-guided bomb, a smaller equivalewnt of the 13,600 kg GBU-57 ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ believed to have been used in Iran.
    Michael Ammons / US Air Force

    Only the MOP could do the job (short of using nuclear weapons). Even then, multiple MOPs would have been required to ensure sufficient damage to the underground facilities.

    The US has claimed that these sites have been utterly destroyed. We cannot conclusively say whether this is true.

    Iran may also have other, undeclared nuclear sites elsewhere in the country.

    Iran’s reaction

    The US has reportedly reached out to Iran via diplomatic channels to emphasise that this attack was a one-off, not part of a larger project of regime change. It is hard to say what will happen in the next few weeks.

    Iran may retaliate with large strikes against Israel or against US forces in the region. It could also interrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which would affect a large portion of global oil shipments, with profound economic implications.

    Alternatively, Iran could capitulate and take steps to demonstrate it is ending its nuclear program. However, capitulation would not necessarily mean the end of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

    The value of nuclear weapons

    Perhaps a greater concern is that the attack will reinforce Iran’s desire to go nuclear. Without nuclear weapons, Iran was unable to threaten the US enough to deter today’s attack.

    Iran may take lessons from the fate of other states. Ukraine (in)famously surrendered its stockpile of former Soviet nuclear weapons in the early 1990s. Russia has since felt emboldened to annex Crimea in 2014 and launch an ongoing invasion in 2022. Other potential nuclear states, such as Iraq and Gadaffi’s regime in Libya, also suffered from military intervention.

    By contrast, North Korea successfully tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006. Since then there has been no serious consideration of military intervention in North Korea.

    Iran may yet have the ability to produce useful amounts of weapons-grade uranium. It may now aim to buy itself time to assemble a relatively small nuclear device, similar in scale to the bombs used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    Depending on what facilities and resources have survive the US strikes, the attack has likely reinforced that the only way the Iranian regime can guarantee its survival is to possess nuclear weapons.

    James Dwyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-bunker-buster-an-expert-explains-what-the-us-dropped-on-iran-259508

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. Here are 3 scenarios for what might happen next

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Middle East Studies, Australian National University

    After prevaricating about whether the United States would enter Israel’s war on Iran, President Donald Trump finally made a decision.

    Early Sunday, US warplanes struck three of Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, where the Iranians have a uranium enrichment plant buried about 80 metres beneath a mountain.

    These strikes have to be viewed as part of an overall continuum that began with the Gaza war following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and then continued with Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah (the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon) and the fall of the Iran-backed Assad regime in Syria.

    Iran has never been weaker than it is now. And when Trump said it may take two weeks for him to decide whether to bomb Iran, the Israelis likely pushed him to act sooner.

    We can assume there was a lot of Israeli pressure on Trump to use the massive ordnance penetrators, the 30,000-pound (13,600-kilogram) “bunker buster” bombs that only the US can deploy with its B2 bombers.

    Now that Trump has taken the significant step of entering the US in yet another Middle East war, where could things go from here? There are a few possible scenarios.

    Iran strikes back

    The Iranians know they don’t have the strength to take on the US, and that the Americans can do enormous damage to their country and even put the Iranian regime’s stability at risk.

    This is always the prime consideration of of the clerical regime led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – everything else is subordinate to that.

    To gauge Iran’s possible reaction, we can look at the how it responded to the first Trump administration’s assassination of the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020.

    Iran said there would be a major reaction, but all it did was launch a barrage of missiles at two American bases in Iraq, which caused no US fatalities and very little damage. After that token retaliation, Iran said the matter was closed.

    Iran’s reaction to the new US strikes will likely be along these lines. It probably won’t want to get into a tit-for-tat with the US by launching attacks against American facilities in the region. Trump has promised to respond with force:

    Iran, a bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.

    It’s also unclear how long Iran will be able to prosecute this war. This depends largely on how many ballistic missiles and launchers it has left.

    There are various estimates as to how many ballistic missiles Iran may have remaining in its stockpiles. It was believed to have about 2,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel at the start of the war. Some estimates say Iran has fired 700 of them; others say around 400. Whatever the number is, its stockpiles are dwindling quickly.

    Israel has also destroyed about a third of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers. If Israel is able to destroy all of them, Iran would have very limited ability to fight back.

    Iran backs down

    Before the US got involved in the conflict, Iran said it was prepared to negotiate, but it wouldn’t do so while Israel was still attacking.

    So, one scenario is that some sort of compromise can now be worked out, in which Israel announces a ceasefire and Iran and the US agree to resume negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program.

    The big problem is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he doesn’t trust the negotiating process and he doesn’t want to stop Israel’s military actions until all of Iran’s nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed. He’s also been bombing Iran’s oil terminals and gas facilities to put even more pressure on the regime.

    But the regime has shown itself to be incredibly determined not to lose face. It was under great pressure at different times during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and never considered surrendering until a US missile mistakenly took down an Iranian passenger jet, killing 290 people.

    Iran then agreed to a UN-brokered ceasefire. But the Iran-Iraq war lasted eight years, causing an estimated one million deaths. And when the then-supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, agreed to the ceasefire, he said it was “worse than drinking poison”.

    Given the state of Iran’s military capabilities, Khamenei, the current supreme leader, might surrender simply to try to preserve the regime. But this would be quite a climbdown as far as he’s concerned, and he has been very obstinate in the past.

    The regime is very unpopular, but the Iranian people, in my experience, are strongly patriotic – loyal to their country, if not the regime. Though it’s difficult to gauge opinion in a country of 90 million people, a lot of Iranians would not want to be ordered to do anything by the US or Israel, and would rather fight on.

    Netanyahu has said he wants to create the conditions for the Iranian people to rise up against the regime.

    But it’s worth bearing in mind that the opposite of autocracy is not necessarily democracy. It could possibly be chaos. Iran has a number of different ethnic groups and there may be huge disagreements over what should take the place of the clerical regime, were it to fall.

    At this stage, the regime will probably be able to hold together. And even if Khameini were to die suddenly, the regime will likely be able to quickly replace him.

    Though we don’t know his probable successor, the regime has had plenty of time to plan for this. Those in senior positions will also know that a post-Khamenei succession struggle really would put the regime at risk.

    The US engagement is limited

    According to the new polling by The Economist and YouGov, released on June 17, 60% of Americans were opposed to joining the conflict between Israel and Iran, with just 16% in favour. Among Republicans, 53% opposed military action.

    So, these strikes were not an obviously popular move among Americans at this stage. However, if this is an isolated event and succeeds in bringing a swift end to the war, Trump will probably be applauded by a majority of Americans.

    If the US has to go back with more bombers – or there are serious attacks on US interests in the region – there could be more adverse reactions among Americans.

    Another question is whether Iran’s 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium have been destroyed in the US attack.

    If it hasn’t been destroyed, and depending how much damage has been done to its centrifuges, Iran may be able to reconstruct its nuclear program relatively quickly. And it could have more incentive to further enrich this uranium to 90% purity, or weapons-grade level, to build a nuclear device.

    Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. Here are 3 scenarios for what might happen next – https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-entered-the-israel-iran-war-here-are-3-scenarios-for-what-might-happen-next-259509

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Muted response from Albanese government on US attack on Iran

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Albanese government has given a tepid response to the United States’ bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    The Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement from a government spokesperson, but there were no plans on Sunday afternoon for Anthony Albanese or any minister to front the media.

    This contrasted with the full support given by the opposition, which said, “the Coalition stands with the United States of America today. We can never allow the Iranian regime the capacity to enact its objectives of the destruction of the United States and Israel.”

    The government has constantly urged deescalation of the Middle East conflict.

    The government spokesperson’s statement recognised the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program but did not specifically refer to the American military action.

    It said: “we have been clear that Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program has been a threat to international peace and security.”

    “We note the US President’s statement that now is the time for peace.

    “The security situation in the region is highly volatile.

    “We continue to call for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy.

    “Australians in Israel and Iran and the region should continue to monitor public safety information provided by local authorities, including to shelter in place when required.

    “The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade will be communicating directly with registered Australians about preparations for assisted departures.”

    Earlier, Defence Minister Richard Marles, interviewed before news of the US bombing, said the Australian government was making it clear it saw the Iranian program as a threat to the peace and stability of the region and the world.

    “What we’re saying in relation to this specific conflict is that we are worried about its prospect for escalation,” he said.

    Marles, who will attend this week NATO summit at The Hague, declined to say whether he had conversations or communication with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in the last week or so to discuss the American position.

    But he told Sky: “America is considering its position. So, exactly where America stands is a matter which is under consideration right now”.

    He said the US had been holding a defensive posture in support of their assets and people in the region.

    “We obviously understand that. And they too have been making arguments in relation to there being greater dialogue around this question and in this moment.”

    Opposition Leader Sussan Ley and acting Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister Andrew Hastie released a statement saying,

    “The world can never accept a nuclear-armed Iranian regime and today the United States military has taken proactive action to ensure that we never need to.

    “A nuclear armed Iranian regime would be a serious and direct threat to world peace and stability, especially as it continues to engage in terrorism including by supporting its proxies: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Muted response from Albanese government on US attack on Iran – https://theconversation.com/muted-response-from-albanese-government-on-us-attack-on-iran-259510

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran – and what might happen now

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Dwyer, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania

    The jagged silhouette of a B2 stealth bomber seen during a 2015 flyover in the US. Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images

    Late on Saturday night, local time, the United States carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, marking its open participation in the conflict between Iran and Israel.

    The US says it fired 30 submarine-launched missiles at the sites in Natanz and Isfahan, as well as dropping more than a dozen “bunker buster” bombs at Fordow and Natanz.

    The kind of bomb in question is the extremely destructive GBU-57 Massive Ordance Penetrator, or MOP, which weighs around 13.5 tonnes.

    The attacks raise a lot of questions. What are these enormous bombs? Why did the US feel it had to get involved in the conflict? And, going forward, what does it mean for Iran’s nuclear ambitions?

    What are ‘bunker busters’, and why are they used?

    Bunker busters are weapons designed to destroy heavily protected facilities such as bunkers deep underground, beyond the reach of normal bombs.

    Bunker busters are designed to bury themselves into the ground before detonating. This allows more of the explosive force to penetrate into the ground, rather than travelling through the air or across the surface.

    Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan are built deep underground. Estimates suggest that Fordow for example could be 80m beneath the surface, and capped with layers of reinforced concrete and soil.

    What is the MOP?

    The bunker buster used in this particular operation is the largest in the US arsenal. Leaving aside nuclear weapons, the MOP is the largest known buster buster in the world.

    Weighing some 13.5 tonnes, the MOP is believed to be able to penetrate up to 60 metres below ground in the right conditions. It is not known how many the US possesses, but the numbers are thought to be small (perhaps 20 or so in total).

    We also don’t know exactly how many were used in Iran, though some reports say it was 14. However, it is likely to be a significant portion of the US MOP arsenal.

    Why does only the US possess this capability?

    The US is not the only state with bunker-busting weaponry. However, the size of MOP means it requires very specialised bombers to carry and drop it.

    Only the B2 stealth bomber is currently able to deploy the MOP. Each B2 can carry at most two MOPs at a time. Around seven of America’s 19 operational B2s were used in the Iran operation.

    There has been some consideration whether large transport aircraft such as the C-130 Hercules could be modified to carry and drop the MOP from its rear cargo doors. While this would allow other countries (including Israel) to deploy the MOP, it is for now purely hypothetical.

    Why has the US (apparently) used them in Iran

    The Trump administration claims Iran may be only a few weeks from possessing a nuclear weapon, and that it needed to act now to destroy Iranian nuclear enrichment sites. This claim is notably at odds with published assessments from the US intelligence community.

    However, Israel lacks bunker busting weaponry sufficient to damage the deeply buried and fortified enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

    An F-15E Strike Eagle releases a GBU-28 ‘bunker buster’ laser-guided bomb, a smaller equivalewnt of the 13,600 kg GBU-57 ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ believed to have been used in Iran.
    Michael Ammons / US Air Force

    Only the MOP could do the job (short of using nuclear weapons). Even then, multiple MOPs would have been required to ensure sufficient damage to the underground facilities.

    The US has claimed that these sites have been utterly destroyed. We cannot conclusively say whether this is true.

    Iran may also have other, undeclared nuclear sites elsewhere in the country.

    Iran’s reaction

    The US has reportedly reached out to Iran via diplomatic channels to emphasise that this attack was a one-off, not part of a larger project of regime change. It is hard to say what will happen in the next few weeks.

    Iran may retaliate with large strikes against Israel or against US forces in the region. It could also interrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which would affect a large portion of global oil shipments, with profound economic implications.

    Alternatively, Iran could capitulate and take steps to demonstrate it is ending its nuclear program. However, capitulation would not necessarily mean the end of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

    The value of nuclear weapons

    Perhaps a greater concern is that the attack will reinforce Iran’s desire to go nuclear. Without nuclear weapons, Iran was unable to threaten the US enough to deter today’s attack.

    Iran may take lessons from the fate of other states. Ukraine (in)famously surrendered its stockpile of former Soviet nuclear weapons in the early 1990s. Russia has since felt emboldened to annex Crimea in 2014 and launch an ongoing invasion in 2022. Other potential nuclear states, such as Iraq and Gadaffi’s regime in Libya, also suffered from military intervention.

    By contrast, North Korea successfully tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006. Since then there has been no serious consideration of military intervention in North Korea.

    Iran may yet have the ability to produce useful amounts of weapons-grade uranium. It may now aim to buy itself time to assemble a relatively small nuclear device, similar in scale to the bombs used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    Depending on what facilities and resources have survive the US strikes, the attack has likely reinforced that the only way the Iranian regime can guarantee its survival is to possess nuclear weapons.

    James Dwyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran – and what might happen now – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-bunker-buster-an-expert-explains-what-the-us-dropped-on-iran-and-what-might-happen-now-259508

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 22, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 22, 2025.

    Caitlin Johnstone: Israel supporters will be despised for the rest of their lives
    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone Do Israel’s supporters know it’s over for them? Like, they know they’re going to be despised for the rest of their lives, right? That they will never, ever live down the fact that they supported a live-streamed genocide? And that it will

    Another Iraq? Military expert warns US has no real plan if it joins Israel’s war on Iran
    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, held talks with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom yesterday in Geneva as Israel’s attacks on Iran entered a second week. A US-based Iranian human rights group reports the Israeli attacks have killed at least 639 people. Israeli war planes have

    Israel blocks Gaza aid organisations’ access to fuel, hospitals running out
    BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem Kia ora koutou,  I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground. Sixty nine people killed in Gaza, 12 while seeking aid, and 221 injured (172 seeking aid). 11 killed by Israeli

    Analyst dismisses ‘lie by rogue’ Netanyahu over Iran’s nuclear programme
    Asia Pacific Report A leading Middle East analyst has pushed back against US President Donald Trump’s dismissal of the conclusion of his own national intelligence chief, who said in April that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, said in an interview that Tulsi Gabbard, the US Director

    ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 21, 2025
    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 21, 2025.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Caitlin Johnstone: Israel supporters will be despised for the rest of their lives

    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific.

    COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone

    Do Israel’s supporters know it’s over for them? Like, they know they’re going to be despised for the rest of their lives, right? That they will never, ever live down the fact that they supported a live-streamed genocide?

    And that it will only get worse for them as history clarifies things?

    Surely they must realise this by now. Surely they must realise that nothing they do for the rest of their lives will ever be as significant as the fact that they played cheerleader for genocide and all of Israel’s demented warmongering, long after normal people realised it was the wrong thing to do.

    That in the eyes of the world they will all always be first and foremost someone who supported and defended history’s first live-streamed genocide.

    I wonder what that’s like, knowing that about yourself? If that was me maybe I’d be pushing for World War Three as well, I dunno. Maybe I’d hope we could turn the whole world into Gaza and let the flames wash away human memory of the things we had done. That enough death and destruction spread out across enough of the earth would make my crimes look small in comparison or something.

    It won’t work, though. Everyone’s always going to remember what they did. Their grandchildren will be disgusted by them. Their families will carry their shame for generations.

    What a terrible way to be.


    Israel supporters will be despised for the rest of their lives    Video: Caitlin Johnstone

    STOP PRESS:

    The UK will reportedly be designating Palestine Action as a terrorist group for spraying British military planes with red paint to protest the genocide in Gaza.

    It says a lot about how backwards and diseased western civilization has become when peace activists are designated as terrorists for trying to stop the world’s worst acts of terrorism.

    Iran is having more and more success with its missile strikes on Israel. I am not a military expert, but I’ve been hearing for years that Israel doesn’t want to fight Iran because it can’t reliably stop Iran’s missiles. Israel of course would have known this, so it looks like the plan was always for Israel to get itself into hot water and have the US pull it out.

    Iran’s real sin is insisting upon its own sovereignty as a nation. That’s why it’s a target of the Western empire. Giving up sovereignty over its own energy infrastructure would be giving up the very thing the Iranians started fighting for in the first place all those years ago. They’re not going to do it unless they are forced to, otherwise what was the point of resisting absorption into the imperial blob that whole time?

    I’m supposed to hate a country for saying “Death to America”? I yell that during sex.

    The only reason they get to call the Gaza holocaust a “war” is because they’re using bombs and bullets to do the extermination. If they were using gas chambers to kill the same number of people with the exact same motive, all it would change is the world’s understanding of what’s happening.

    War after war after war the Western empire has told us it needs to ship off our young to go fight evil murderous tyrants, only for the West to wake up to the reality that the empire’s dearest ally in the Middle East is the most evil, murderous and tyrannical regime around.

    The idea of war with Iran would be even less popular than it is now if the Western media hadn’t spent all these years referring to Iran’s civilian nuclear energy programme as “Iran’s nuclear programme”, deliberately causing people to assume that Iran is working on nuclear weapons.

    Friendly reminder that last year the official Democratic Party platform slammed Trump for choosing not to go to war with Iran in 2018, 2019 and 2020 during his last presidency.

    Americans aren’t allowed to vote against war.

    Caitlin Johnstone is an Australian independent journalist and poet. Her articles include The UN Torture Report On Assange Is An Indictment Of Our Entire Society. She publishes a website and Caitlin’s Newsletter. This article is republished with permission.

    This article was first published on Café Pacific.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Another Iraq? Military expert warns US has no real plan if it joins Israel’s war on Iran

    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific.

    Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, held talks with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom yesterday in Geneva as Israel’s attacks on Iran entered a second week.

    A US-based Iranian human rights group reports the Israeli attacks have killed at least 639 people. Israeli war planes have repeatedly pummeled Tehran and other parts of Iran. Iran is responded by continuing to launch missile strikes into Israel.

    Hundreds of thousands of Iranians have protested in Iran against Israel. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to give mixed messages on whether the US will join Israel’s attack on Iran.

    On Wednesday, Trump told reporters, “I may do it, I may not do it”. On Thursday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt delivered a new statement from the President.

    KAROLINE LEAVITT: “Regarding the ongoing situation in Iran, I know there has been a lot of speculation among all of you in the media regarding the president’s decision-making and whether or not the United States will be directly involved.

    “In light of that news, I have a message directly from the president. And I quote, ‘Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.’”

    AMY GOODMAN, The War and Peace Report: President Trump has repeatedly used that term, “two weeks,” when being questioned about decisions in this term and his first term as president. Leavitt delivered the message shortly after President Trump met with his former adviser, Steve Bannon, who has publicly warned against war with Iran.

    Bannon recently said, “We can’t do this again. We’ll tear the country apart. We can’t have another Iraq,” Bannon said.

    This comes as Trump’s reportedly sidelined National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard from key discussions on Iran. In March, Gabbard told lawmakers the intelligence community, “Continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.”

    But on Tuesday, Trump dismissed her statement, saying, “I don’t care what she said.”

    Earlier Thursday, an Iranian missile hit the main hospital in Southern Israel in Beersheba. After the strike, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei, saying Iran’s supreme leader, “Cannot continue to exist.”

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the hospital and likened Iran’s attack to the London Blitz. Netanyahu stunned many in Israel by saying, “Each of us bears a personal cost. My family has not been exempt. This is the second time my son Avner has cancelled a wedding due to missile threats.”

    We’re joined now by William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. His new article for The National Interest is headlined, “Don’t Get Dragged Into a War with Iran.”

    Can you talk about what’s going on right now, Bill, the whole question of whether the U.S. is going to use a bunker-buster bomb that has to be delivered by a B-2 bomber, which only the US has?


    Another Iraq: Military expert warns US has no real plan    Video: Democracy Now!

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: Yeah. This is a case of undue trust in technology. The US is always getting in trouble when they think there’s this miracle solution. A lot of experts aren’t sure this would even work, or if it did, it would take multiple bombings.

    And of course, Iran’s not going to sit on its hands. They’ll respond possibly by killing US troops in the region, then we’ll have escalation from there. It’s reminiscent of the beginning of the Iraq War, when they said, “It’s going to be a cakewalk. It’s not going to cost anything.”

    Couple of trillion dollars, hundreds of thousands of casualties, many US veterans coming home with PTSD, a regime that was sectarian that paved the way for ISIS, it couldn’t have gone worse.

    And so, this is a different beginning, but the end is uncertain, and I don’t think we want to go there.

    AMY GOODMAN: So, can you talk about the GBU-57, the bunker-buster bomb, and how is it that this discussion going on within the White House about the use of the bomb — and of course, the US has gone back and forth — I should say President Trump has gone back and forth whether he’s fully involved with this war.

    At first he was saying they knew about it, but Israel was doing it, then saying, “We have total control of the skies over Tehran,” saying we, not Israel, and what exactly it would mean if the US dropped this bomb and the fleet that the US is moving in?

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: Yes, well, the notion is, it’s heavy steel, it’s more explosive power than any conventional bomb. But it only goes so deep, and they don’t actually know how deep this facility is buried. And if it’s going in a straight line, and it’s to one side, it’s just not clear that it’s going to work.

    And of course, if it does, Iran is going to rebuild, they’re going to go straight for a nuclear weapon. They’re not going to trust negotiations anymore.

    So, apparently, the two weeks is partly because Trump’s getting conflicting reports from his own people about this. Now, if he had actual independent military folks, like Mark Milley in the first term, I think we’d be less likely to go in.

    But they made sure to have loyalists. Pete Hegseth is not a profile in courage. He’s not going to stand up to Trump on this. He might not even know the consequences. So, a lot of the press coverage is about this bomb, not about the consequences of an active war.

    AMY GOODMAN: Right, about using it. In your recent piece, you wrote, “Israeli officials suggested their attacks may result in regime change in Iran, despite the devastating destabilising impact such efforts in the region would have.”

    Can you talk about the significance of Israel putting forward and then Trump going back and forth on whether or not Ali Khamenei will be targeted?

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: Yeah, I think my colleague Trita Parsi put it well. There’s been no example of regime change in the region that has come out with a better result. They don’t know what kind of regime would come in.

    Could be to the right of the current one. Could just be chaos that would fuel terrorism, who knows what else.

    So, they’re just talking — they’re winging it. They have no idea what they’re getting into. And I think Trump, he doesn’t want to seem like Netanyahu’s pulling him by the nose, so when he gets out in front of Trump, Trump says, “Oh, that was my idea.”

    But it’s almost as if Benjamin Netanyahu is running US foreign policy, and Trump is kind of following along.

    AMY GOODMAN: You have Netanyahu back in 2002 saying, “Iran is imminently going to have a nuclear bomb.” That was more than two decades ago.

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: Exactly. That’s just a cover for wanting to take out the regime. And he spoke to the US Congress, he’s made presentations all over the world, and his intelligence has been proven wrong over, and over, and over.

    And when we had the Iran deal, he had European allies, he had China, he had Russia. There hadn’t been a deal like that where all these countries were on the same page in living memory, and it was working.

    And Trump trashed it and now has to start over.

    AMY GOODMAN: So, talk about the War Powers Act. The Virginia Senator Kaine has said that — has just put forward a bill around saying it must be — Congress that must vote on this. Where is [Senator] Chuck Schumer [Senate minority leader]? Where is [Hakeem] Jeffries [Congress minoroity leader] on this, the Democratic House and Senate leaders?

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: Well, a lot of the so-called leaders are not leading. When is the moment that you should step forward if we’re possibly going to get into another disastrous war? But I think they’re concerned about being viewed as critical of Israel.

    They don’t want to go out on a limb. So, you’ve got a progressive group that’s saying, “This has to be authorised by Congress.” You’ve got Republicans who are doubtful, but they don’t want to stand up to Trump because they don’t want to lose their jobs.

    “Risk your job. This is a huge thing. Don’t just sort of be a time-server.

    AMY GOODMAN: So, according to a report from IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, released in May, Iran has accumulated roughly 120 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which is 30 percent away from weapons-grade level of 90 percent. You have Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, saying this week that they do not have evidence that Iran has the system for a nuclear bomb.

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: Yes, well, a lot of the discussion points out — they don’t talk about, when you’ve got the uranium, you have to build the weapon, you have to make it work on a missile.

    It’s not you get the uranium, you have a weapon overnight, so there’s time to deal with that should they go forward through negotiations. And we had a deal that was working, which Trump threw aside in his first term.

    AMY GOODMAN: Talk about the foreign minister of Iran, Araghchi, in Geneva now speaking with his counterparts from Britain, France, the EU.

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: Well, I don’t think US allies in Europe want to go along with this, and I think he’s looking for some leverage over Trump. And of course, Trump is very hard to read, but even his own base, the majority of Trump supporters, don’t want to go to war.

    You’ve got people like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon saying it would be a disaster. But ultimately, it comes down to Trump. He’s unpredictable, he’s transactional, he’ll calculate what he thinks it’ll mean for him.

    AMY GOODMAN: And what impact does protests have around the country, as we wrap up?

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: Well, I think taking the stand is infectious. So many institutions were caving in to Trump. And the more people stand up, 2000 demonstrations around the country, the more the folks sitting on the fence, the millions of people who, they’re against Trump, but they don’t know what to do, the more of us that get involved, the better chance we have of turning this thing around.

    So, we should not let them discourage us. We need to build power to push back against all these horrible things.

    AMY GOODMAN: Finally, if the US were to bomb the nuclear site that it would require the bunker-buster bomb to hit below ground, underground. Are we talking about nuclear fallout here?

    WILLIAM HARTUNG: I think there would certainly be radiation that would of course affect the Iranian people. They’ve already had many civilian deaths. It’s not this kind of precise thing that’s only hitting military targets.

    And that, too, has to affect Iran’s view of this. They were shortly away from another negotiation, and now their country’s being devastated, so can they trust us?

    AMY GOODMAN: Bill Hartung is senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. His new piece for The National Interest is headlined, “Don’t Get Dragged Into a War with Iran.”

    Republished from Democracy Now! under Creative Commons.

    This article was first published on Café Pacific.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Israel blocks Gaza aid organisations’ access to fuel, hospitals running out

    BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied Bethlehem

    Kia ora koutou, 

    I’m a Kiwi journo in occupied Bethlehem, here’s a brief summary of today’s events across the Palestinian and Israeli territories from on the ground.

    Sixty nine people killed in Gaza, 12 while seeking aid, and 221 injured (172 seeking aid). 11 killed by Israeli airstrike on a house in central Gaza. Qassam Brigades carried out a “complex” ambush against Israeli forces in southern Gaza. Israel are preventing humanitarian organisations from accessing fuel storage sites in the enclave, hospital supplies last for just three days.

    *

    Iranian authorities report five hospitals damaged in targeted Israeli strikes, have arrested 16 agents allegedly linked to Israel, and offered Israeli “collaborators” a pardon if they surrender their drones by July 1.

    *

    Two US destroyers have arrived in the eastern Mediterranean, bringing the total to five in the region and two in the Red Sea.

    *

    An Israeli drone targeted a car in southern Lebanon, violating the existing ceasefire and Lebanese sovereignty yet again.

    *

    Israeli leaders double down on their accusations that Iran is developing nuclear bombs, despite the international watchdog, IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency], saying there is no sufficient evidence. 18 injured by Iranian missile in the southern Israeli territories, 17 in Haifa. Strikes targeted Israel’s Channel 14 news stations as threatened, after Israeli forces struck Iran’s state broadcaster two days ago. 100 million shekel pledged by Israeli regime to build 1000 new bomb shelters in some areas; the regime is known for under-investment in Palestinian neighbourhoods.

    *

    More checkpoints and barriers installed across the West Bank. Ambulance movement continues to be disrupted by gas shortages in Bethlehem. Despite the war, Israeli occupation forces continue extensive home demolitions in Nour Shams refugee camp in the northern West Bank. Settlers crush and uproot Palestinian olive trees near Sinjil, north of Ramallah. Occupation bulldozers dug up roads south of Jenin. Palestinian residents were shot at by settlers while trying to extinguish fires west of Bethlehem.

    *

    Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza continues, with minimal political intervention to prevent it.

    Cole Martin is an independent New Zealand photojournalist based in the Middle East and a contributor to Asia Pacific Report.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz