NewzIntel.com

Category: Features

  • MIL-Evening Report: Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one.

    The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. He’s estimated to have won Georgia (16 electoral votes) by 2.5% over Democrat Kamala Harris and North Carolina (16) by 3.3%.

    Other key states have not yet been called, but Trump has an 85% probability of winning Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), a 71% chance to win Michigan (15), a 79% chance to win Wisconsin (ten) and an 83% chance to win Arizona (11). There are still no results from Nevada (six).

    If Trump wins all the seven key states in which the “needle” favours him, he will win the Electoral College by a 312–226 margin.

    The needle’s popular vote projection also favours Trump by 1.2%. If Trump wins the popular vote as well as the Electoral College, it will be the first time Republicans have won both since 2004. In 2000 and 2016, Republicans won the Electoral College but not the popular vote.

    The main reasons for Trump’s victory were Joe Biden’s unpopularity, the US economy being only just above average, and record illegal immigration during Biden’s term. I’ve mentioned all these factors in my previous US election articles.

    Abortion was not the vote-shifter Democrats expected. In lower-turnout elections such as the 2022 midterms and byelections, Democrats have performed well owing to voters motivated by abortion. But in this high-turnout presidential election, abortion was marginalised.

    Polls understated Trump across the board, though they were not as bad as they were in 2020. Using Nate Silver’s aggregate of final polls, Trump outperformed his polls in the seven key states by two to three points. This is the third successive time that polls have underestimated Trump.

    In the past, the Selzer Iowa poll has had outlier results that turned out to be accurate. This time the final Selzer poll gave Harris a three-point lead in Iowa, but Trump will win by 13 points according to the needle’s forecast.

    Barack Obama won Florida in both 2008 and 2012, and Trump won it by one to three points in both 2016 and 2020. This year, Trump won Florida by 56–43. He won the heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade county by 55–44. At the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton had defeated Trump in Miami-Dade by 63–34.

    In some states that have nearly finished counting, such as Kentucky, there were swings across the board to Trump compared with 2020. It wasn’t just a rural swing to Trump as there were also swings in urban counties.

    The New York Times said Trump had gained nine to ten points since 2020 in New York, New Jersey and Florida, all racially diverse states.

    The only comfort for Democrats from this election is that the gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College “tipping point” state has almost disappeared, if the needle is right. Democrats will lose the popular vote by 1.2% but Pennsylvania, the tipping point state, by 2.2%. This will be a gap of 1.0%, down from nearly 3.9% in 2020.

    Senate also ugly for Democrats

    Democrats and allied independents held a 51–49 Senate majority coming into this election, but they were defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up for election. Senators have six-year terms with two from each of the 50 states.

    Republicans have gained the Senate with a 51–42 lead over Democrats, after gaining West Virginia and Ohio from Democrats and defending Florida, Nebraska and Texas. Republicans lead Democrats in four more Senate races, so they could win a 55–45 Senate majority.

    All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years. Republicans currently have a 183–155 lead over Democrats. A majority requires 218 seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-poised-to-become-next-us-president-likely-sweeping-all-the-seven-key-states-242766

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Black balls on Sydney beaches are likely ‘fatbergs’ showing traces of human faeces, methamphetamine and PFAS: new analysis

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Beves, Associate Professor of Chemistry, UNSW Sydney

    Jon Beves, CC BY

    The mysterious black balls that washed up on Sydney’s beaches in mid-October were likely lumps of “fatberg” containing traces of human faeces, methamphetamine and PFAS, according to a new detailed analysis of their composition.

    Initial reports suggested the ominous lumps were probably tar balls from an oil spill. However, analysis with a barrage of scientific tests has revealed a more complicated picture.

    The mysterious black balls

    On October 16, the first reports emerged from Coogee Beach in Sydney’s east. Lifeguards reported numerous black spheres on the sand that appeared at first glance to be tar-like.

    Similar sightings were soon reported at nearby Bondi, Bronte, Tamarama and Maroubra beaches, prompting immediate closures and cleanup efforts. Authorities initially feared these could be toxic “tar balls”, leading to health advisories and public warnings.

    Preliminary testing by Randwick Council was consistent with tar balls made up of oil and debris.

    Oil – or something more disgusting?

    We set out to find out exactly what the black balls were made of and where they came from. We ran a wide range of tests and analyses with colleagues from UNSW in collaboration with the Mark Wainwright Analytical Centre and the the environmental forensics arm of the federal Department of Climate Change, Environment, Energy and Water (DCCEEW). We also collaborated with the NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA), and Randwick Council.

    Initial testing, based primarily on results from a technique called solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, suggested the material resembled unrefined oil. However, further testing indicated a different, more disgusting, composition.

    A cross section of one of the balls, showing its sandy coating and surface, some fibres, and the core.
    Jake Ireland, CC BY

    Analysing the elements involved revealed the black goop was mostly carbon. Radiocarbon dating then showed only about 30% of the carbon had a fossil origin, suggesting fossil fuels were not the major component of the balls.

    We also identified significant levels of calcium, and much smaller amounts of various metals. Spectroscopic tests showed signatures in the black balls matching fats, oils and greasy molecules often found in soap scum, cooking oil and food sources. This pointed to human waste.

    PFAS, drugs and signs of faeces

    The next step was to see if we could dissolve the substance in organic solvents. Only about one-third to one-half of the mass dissolved this way.

    We were able to take a closer look at the dissolved part using a technique called mass spectrometry, which identifies molecules by their weight and electric charge. This revealed molecules found in vehicle-grade fuels as well as organic molecules such as fatty acids and glycerides.

    We also identified industrial perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS or “forever chemicals”), steroidal compounds such as norgestrel, antihypertensive medications such as losartan, pesticides, and veterinary drugs. This is consistent with contamination from sewage and industrial runoff.

    The crushed up interior of one ball, ready for testing.
    Jon Beves, CC BY

    There were also signs of human faecal waste, including a cholesterol byproduct called epicoprostanol and residues of recreational drugs including tetrahydrocannabinol (also known as THC, a compound found in the cannabis plant) and methamphetamine. This is consistent with contributions from domestic waste.

    Analysing the part of the mass that we couldn’t dissolve proved more challenging. Here we tried solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance and a method called Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, which uses infrared light to detect chemicals. The results suggested the presence of fats, but they were not definitive.

    Were the blobs lumps of fatberg?

    So what does all this mean? The high levels of fats, oils, greasy molecules and calcium, along with the low solubility, are consistent with a “fatberg”: a congealed mass of fats, oils and greasy molecules that can accumulate in sewage.

    The detection of markers of human fecal matter, medication and recreational drugs suggest the origin may be sewage or other urban effluent. However, while the composition of these black balls suggests they may be similar to fatbergs, we cannot definitively confirm their exact origin.

    The black ball incident does highlight the broader issue of pollution along Sydney’s coastline.

    Recent reports indicate about 28% of monitored swimming sites in New South Wales are prone to pollution. Many receive poor water quality ratings, especially after rain. Beaches such as Gymea Bay, Coogee Beach, Malabar Beach, and Frenchmans Bay have been identified as areas of concern, with advisories against swimming due to contamination from human faecal matter.

    Urban waste pollution

    Analysing and understanding urban waste pollution is not an easy task. It requires a multi-disciplinary approach.

    To unravel the complex composition of the blobs, we used carbon-14 dating, mass spectrometry, elemental analysis and microscopy techniques.

    Even after all we did, we cannot yet draw definitive conclusions regarding the primary source of the blobs. This uncertainty reflects the broader challenges faced by scientists and environmental agencies in tracking and addressing pollution in coastal areas.

    This incident underscores the importance of thorough scientific analysis in understanding environmental issues. By continuing to investigate the sources and composition of such pollutants, we can learn more about how urban waste management affects the health of our coasts.

    This research was led by UNSW researchers, including Associate Professor Jon Beves, Dr Tim Barrows, Dr Martin Bucknall, Professor William Alexander Donald, Dr Albert Fahrenbach, Dr Sarah Hancock, Dr Christopher Hansen, Ms Lisa Hua, Dr Martina Lessio, Dr Chris Marjo, Associate Professor Vinh Nguyen, Dr Martin Peeks, Dr Aditya Rawal, Dr Chowdhury Sarowar, Professor Timothy Schmidt, Dr Jake Violi and Dr Helen Wang.

    Jon Beves receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. He is affiliated with The Greens.

    William Alexander Donald receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the US National Institutes of Health, iCare Dust Diseases Care, Coal Services NSW Health and Safety Trust, as well as industry-funded research contracts.

    – ref. Black balls on Sydney beaches are likely ‘fatbergs’ showing traces of human faeces, methamphetamine and PFAS: new analysis – https://theconversation.com/black-balls-on-sydney-beaches-are-likely-fatbergs-showing-traces-of-human-faeces-methamphetamine-and-pfas-new-analysis-242681

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I can make a band play like a singer sings’: Quincy Jones shaped our listening for seven decades

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leigh Carriage, Senior Lecturer in Music, Southern Cross University

    The legendary composer, musical arranger and producer Quincy Jones has died at 91.

    Over his long career, Jones arranged and produced for a broad range of genres. His work blended the traditions of jazz, popular, world music and Western classical music.

    This was perhaps most present in his 1989 album Back on the Block. It features jazz improvisation, Zulu language, gospel and rapping. The album won seven Grammy Awards, including album of the year.

    But even more than his own albums, Jones will be familiar to listeners across decades of popular music, for his work as a producer and arranger with legendary artists such as Ella Fitzgerald, Barry White, Chaka Khan, Frank Sinatra and Michael Jackson.

    Finding his feet in jazz

    Jones was born in Chicago in 1933, right in the middle of the depression. Around 11 years old, Jones found music.

    In high school, Jones sang in a capella groups and played in school bands on the trumpet.

    By 13, he was beginning to demonstrate a strong musical ability and musicianship skills, writing arrangements for his bands.

    When Jones was a teenager, his family moved from Chicago to Seattle. In these early years, Jones had two pivotal mentors. One was the jazz trumpeter Clark Terry; the other was his contemporary and friend Ray Charles.

    By the late 1940s, Jones was working as a trumpeter and as composer and arranger for bandleaders such as Dizzy Gillespie and Lionel Hampton.

    A jazz big band bandleader in the 1950s, Jones quickly became a sought-after arranger.

    Over his career, he worked on numerous jazz recordings with Count Basie, Duke Ellington, Tony Bennett, Sarah Vaughan (including a great swingin’ arrangement of the song
    Witchcraft), Frank Sinatra (with popular favourites Fly Me To The Moon and Mack the Knife) and the Dinah Washington recording They Didn’t Believe Me with the Quincy Jones Orchestra.

    The move into pop

    By the 1960s Jones began transitioning into popular music.

    In 1961 Jones became the first African American in the position of vice president at a major label, Mercury Records. In 1963 Jones selected and produced Lesley Gore’s hit song It’s My Party from more than 200 demos.

    Elements of the previous decades expertise in jazz arranging are apparent with touches of brass and reharmonising (or modifying the harmonic structure – the chords) of a song. Jones’ production approach here was to double-track the melody (duplicating, and placing the second track with a slight delay), enhancing the richness of Gore’s voice.

    In 1968, Jones received his first Oscar nomination for Best Original Score for the soundtrack to In Cold Blood. The following year his composing and arranging versatility was demonstrated when he wrote the music for The Italian Job.

    In 1979 Jones began working with Michael Jackson on the album Off The Wall.

    By the 1980s, Jones was receiving high acclaim and success immersed in many diverse projects including Jackson’s Thriller (1982) and Bad (1987), in which Jones masterfully fuses pop with rhythm and blues, rock and funk.

    His innovation in producing was in his broad understanding of multiple genres of music, adoption of technology and his constant musical invention.

    ‘A great gift’

    In 1985 Jones and Michael Omartian were asked to produce the song We Are The World, written by Lionel Richie and Jackson. It was released to worldwide acclaim.

    Jones conducted the recording and left a sign on the studio door: “Check your egos at the door”.

    Also in 1985, Jones wrote the original score and produced the music for Steven Spielberg’s The Colour Purple, including the song Miss Celie’s Blues, written collaboratively with Jones, Rod Temperton and Richie. The score and Miss Celie’s Blues each received another Oscar nomination for Jones.

    Jones was requested on many large projects as a conductor. A great example is Handel’s Messiah: A Soulful Celebration (1992) conducted by Jones. This album featured some of the music industry’s best arrangers Mervyn Warren and Shelton Kilby as well as a stellar list of vocalists such as Gladys Knight, Take 6, Sounds of Blackness, Pattie Austin, Johnny Mathis, Chaka Khan and Al Jarreau.

    In an interview with culture journalist David Marchese in 2018, Jones was asked what he was proudest of in his musical career. He told Marchese:

    That anything I can feel, I can notate musically. Not many people can do that. I can make a band play like a singer sings. That’s what arranging is, and it’s a great gift.

    Beyond his own work as an artist, Jones undertook humanitarian work, mentored new generations of musicians, and was often a commentator on jazz history or the significance of African Americans in the entertainment and recording industry.

    Jones’ artistic innovation and highly effective collaborations, spanning a 70-year career, has made an indelible contribution to music and culture globally.

    Leigh Carriage does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘I can make a band play like a singer sings’: Quincy Jones shaped our listening for seven decades – https://theconversation.com/i-can-make-a-band-play-like-a-singer-sings-quincy-jones-shaped-our-listening-for-seven-decades-242813

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What Kamala Harris’ Converse All-Stars tell us about how shoes shape our identity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Sherlock, Lecturer, School of Fashion and Textiles, RMIT University

    Like most public figures, Kamala Harris adapts her footwear to different occasions. While her wardrobe includes traditional choices such as formal black heels, it was her appearance in Converse Chuck Taylor All-Stars on the February 2021 cover of Vogue that drew particular notice.

    As Democratic nominee for president, these sneakers once again became a focal point of her campaign.

    Through her choice of sneakers, Harris signals a new era in female political leadership – and demonstrates how footwear choices can shape a leader’s identity and ability to connect with voters.

    Embracing all-American values

    We may know we shouldn’t judge a book by its cover, but all politicians – especially women – know that we inevitably do. The appearance of others is how we categorise people to make sense of the world and our place in it.

    Clothing is a key medium through which we identify ourselves and others. Shoes are particularly layered with meaning: when we observe someone’s footwear we are using them to know whether or not we identify with that person.

    This is something that politicians and their teams know and manipulate to win votes.

    One famous scene that illustrates this beautifully is Brooklyn Democratic congressman David Norris’s concession speech in the movie The Adjustment Bureau (2011).

    Played by Matt Damon, the character reveals the significant work that goes into curating the perfect outfit:

    Shiny shoes, we associate with high-priced lawyers and bankers. If you want to get a working man’s vote, you need to scuff up your shoes a little bit, but you can’t scuff them up so much that you alienate the lawyers and the bankers […] So what is the proper scuffing amount? Do you know, we actually paid a consultant $7,300 to tell us that THIS is the perfect amount of scuffing?

    While Harris’ Chuck Taylors generally look pristine, she is transparent about her awareness of the style’s significance to potential voters, explaining in a 2020 interview:

    Whatever your background or whatever language your grandmother spoke, we all at some point or another had our Chucks, right?

    An all-American shoe worn by people of all ages, races, genders and sexualities, the relatively inexpensive and utilitarian Converse All-Star is a social leveller – a smart choice for a politician wishing to identify with a broad electorate.

    As others have identified, Harris’ choice of sneakers signals her American values and no-nonsense attitude.

    In these shoes, she’s ready for anything.

    Shoes change us

    Interviewed in 2018, Harris’ relationship with the sneakers goes back several years and certainly appears authentic.

    Whether the initial choice to wear them was hers – or, like Norris, that of a team of consultants – is now irrelevant. Through the process of wear, shoes change us.

    Not only do they affect how we move through the world physically, but they also shape how we relate to others socially.

    Anyone who has selected a particular pair of shoes for an interview or special occasion will be familiar with their transformative effect, one that helps you to feel the part.

    Identity can be understood as something that is performed. When a performance is received as convincing, we become the part we are playing and the identity is incorporated into our sense of self.

    Harris’ shoes are relatable. In them, she is perceived as – and may therefore feel – approachable and down-to-earth.

    On the campaign trail, the social interactions they afford increase her ability to relate to and connect with other people. Through this process, her performance and her identity become one.

    One might say she has become her shoes; in doing so, she has come to embody the all-American values they represent. And at only 5 feet 4 ¼ inches, the choice not to compensate for her height with heels exudes a self-assurance more women are discovering.

    This woman knows who she is and is reassuringly at ease with herself.

    Finding authenticity

    Aside from ongoing speculation about Trump’s height and whether he wears elevating insoles, his choice of footwear has attracted comparatively less attention, as is often the case for male politicians.

    According to Footwear News, he rarely diverts from black leather dress shoes, signifying his corporate associations. This didn’t stop Trump launching a line of gold sneakers, named “Never Surrender High-Tops” and priced at US$399 in February. A new design, with the words “Fight, fight, fight”, was released after the July assassination attempt.

    This represents quite a different use of shoes to connect with voters.

    In an era when authenticity in politics is increasingly valued, Harris’ footwear choice represents more than a campaign strategy. It reflects changing expectations around power and leadership.

    Her Converse sneakers challenge the notion that women must literally elevate themselves to command authority.

    Instead, they suggest a new kind of political performance where power comes not from height or traditional status symbols, but from the ability to connect genuinely with voters.

    Alexandra Sherlock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What Kamala Harris’ Converse All-Stars tell us about how shoes shape our identity – https://theconversation.com/what-kamala-harris-converse-all-stars-tell-us-about-how-shoes-shape-our-identity-242777

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Primary care involves more than GPs. A new review shows how patients can better access care

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne

    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Australians today are more likely than previous generations to live with complex and chronic diseases, such as diabetes, heart disease and depression.

    This means they’re more likely to need health care from a variety of different providers, such as nurses, podiatrists, psychologists and physiotherapists, as well as GPs. This is known as “multidisciplinary care”. It works best when the skills of all these professions are available to the patient in a co-ordinated way.

    But the roles of health professions, and the way they’re funded, have been frozen in legislation and policy for decades. Any change has been incremental and disjointed. It has mostly involved adding more items to the Medicare schedule, with each professional practising separately.

    The result has been greater inequity of access. Because fewer than half of allied health fee-for-service visits are bulk-billed, most patients pay almost A$70 for each consultation – and sometimes much more. Those who can’t afford the out-of-pocket costs and can’t find a bulk-billing practitioner miss out.

    To assess how the government can remove barriers to team-based care and get health professions working to their full potential, or their full “scope of practice”, last year the government commissioned an independent review.

    The final report, released yesterday, sets a new path for the primary care workforce. This could make multidisciplinary care within reach of all Australians.

    Using health-care workers’ full potential

    The review involved extensive consultation, including on two issues papers. The report itself incorporates feedback from the consultations, including sceptical comments, reflecting a divergence of opinions.

    Reflected the report’s title, Unleashing the Potential of our Health Workforce, its main emphasis is to change the rules and regulations imposed by state and federal governments. These stymie health professionals and limit their ability to use their full skills and knowledge to manage their patients’ care.

    Over recent decades, health professionals’ education has improved. So professionals are capable of doing more than previously. Yet the rules and regulations have not advanced and so inhibit professionals from making those skills and knowledge available.

    The review argues this contributes to career dissatisfaction, and to people leaving various health professions, exacerbating workforce shortages.

    The review proposes a new way of documenting and describing what can be done by a profession through what it calls a National Skills and Capability Framework and Matrix.

    As with many other recommendations, the review points to where this is done already internationally and how it can nestle into other policies and frameworks to aid implementation.

    Health-care workers aren’t using all their skills.
    DC studio/Shutterstock

    To the disappointment of most allied health professions, the review does not recommend more Medicare payments for them to practise independently.

    Rather, the review recommends payment to general practices for them to expand multi-disciplinary teams. This would see professionals working together, rather than in competition or isolation.

    The review also recommends changing the rules about referrals by health professionals, allowing qualified health professionals to refer directly to non-GP medical specialists in similar areas. This means your psychologist could refer you directly to a psychiatrist if needed, or your physiotherapist could refer you directly to an orthopaedic surgeon rather than needing to go back to your GP.

    This will weaken the role of the GP as a “gatekeeper” and also potentially undermine the more holistic care that GPs provide. But from a patient’s point of view, eliminating the intermediate step saves them out-of-pocket costs.

    An important recommendation recognises that the health system evolves and rules and regulations need to evolve too. It therefore supplements its recommendations for changes now, with an approach for continuous review through an independent mechanism. This would provide evidence-based advice and recommendations about:

    • significant workforce innovation
    • emerging health care roles
    • workforce models that involve significant change to scope.

    When will we see change?

    The review sets out a loose timeline for implementation, described as short, medium and long term. And it assigns responsibility for each element of its recommendations to appropriate bodies and governments.

    As almost all the recommendations require legislative change, and many require agreement between the Commonwealth and the states, it’s unlikely any of the changes will take effect this financial year.

    The review recommends change be implemented in a systematic, evidence-based and safe way. Implementation would start in areas of greatest need such as in rural and remote Australia and also in practices most ready for the change, such as Aboriginal Controlled Community Health Organisations or Victoria’s Community Health Centres.

    The review recommends changes to the referral process.
    voronaman/Shutterstock

    In releasing what he referred to as a “landmark” report, Health Minister Mark Butler noted the complexity of implementation, which would require collaborative action with states and territories. He noted the need for further consultation, but nevertheless took a supportive tone.

    Can this review prompt real health reform?

    Overall, the review charts a middle course between letting health professionals roam free and the tight and inappropriate rules and regulations which constrain patient care today. It also sets out the practical steps to achieve its goals.

    The one downside of the report is the emphasis on harmonisation of state and territory approaches. This would replace the current approach, where each state and territory decides, for example, on what vaccines can be administered by which professionals and what pharmacists can dispense without a medical practitioner’s prescription.

    One of the benefits of a federation is the potential for state- and territory-based innovation and cross-border learning. Harmonisation will limit that experimenting, and may lead to more of the stasis seen in health workforce policy in the past.

    Stephen Duckett was consulted by the Independent Reviewer during the course of the Review and commented on the Review’s Issues Papers and Draft Final Report

    – ref. Primary care involves more than GPs. A new review shows how patients can better access care – https://theconversation.com/primary-care-involves-more-than-gps-a-new-review-shows-how-patients-can-better-access-care-242698

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What to expect on Election Day: history could be made, or we’re in for a long wait (and plenty of conspiracies)

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

    As Americans vote in one of the most important presidential elections in generations, the country teeters on a knife edge. In the battleground states that will likely decide the result, the polling margins between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are razor thin.

    These tiny margins, and the general confusion around American politics today, make it impossible to predict the outcome.

    The polls might well be wrong: the electorate may have shifted dramatically since 2020 in ways that will only reveal themselves after the election. The reality is we do not know much of anything for sure, and we may never be able to untangle all of the threads that make up the knot of American politics.

    After two assassination attempts on Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden’s dramatic decision to leave the race in August, it is entirely possible this election will throw up more big surprises. But as things stand, there are three broad possibilities for what will happen on Election Day.

    All of them throw up their own challenges – for the United States, and for the world.

    Possibility 1: the return of Trump

    Trump may make history and win back the White House. Only Grover Cleveland has managed to get elected a second time as president (in 1892) after suffering a defeat four years earlier.

    If Trump does win, it could be via a similar path to the one he took in 2016 – by once again sundering the “blue wall” and winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

    This feat will likely mean his campaign tactic of mobilising men has worked.

    A Trump victory would represent the culmination of a generational project of the American right. A second Trump administration would be very different from the first – the movement behind Trump is more organised, focused and cognisant of the mistakes of the first Trump White House. It would also face considerably weakened democratic guardrails.

    The implementation of Trump’s radical agenda, alongside some or all of the broader far-right agenda detailed in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, would radically reshape American life and create political and economic chaos.

    The rest of the world would have to reorient itself, once again, around Trump.

    Possibility 2: Harris makes history

    It is entirely possible Harris makes history – not only by beating Trump, but by becoming the first woman and woman of colour to win the US presidency.

    Like Trump, if Harris does win, it will likely be through one or more of the battleground states – in particular, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

    For Harris, victory will likely come via high turnout by women and voters of colour, particularly African-Americans, or through a combination of turnout by this core Democratic base and swing voters in key states like Pennsylvania.

    How Harris wins – and by how much – will be crucial, both to the immediate aftermath of the election and to the shape of a future Harris administration.

    A big question: can she win by enough to head off resistance by Trump and the movement behind him? As Australian writer Don Watson has noted, a Harris victory would likely be taken as an existential defeat by the MAGA movement.

    How Trump’s supporters react to such a defeat – and how US institutions react to their reaction – will be a critical test for American democracy.

    Possibility 3: too close to call

    This brings us to the third possibility: the polls are correct, and it’s such a tight race that the margins in the battleground states are in the thousands of votes, or even less.

    If it is that close, counting could take days. And there could be recounts after that.

    While conspiracies abound, a delay in the result like this would be an entirely predictable and normal outcome. In the United States, there isn’t one system for counting the votes; elections are run by the states on a county-by-county basis, and each state does it differently.

    Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, legally can’t start counting mail-in votes until the polls open on Election Day.

    Then there is the supposed “blue shift” or “red mirage” that sometimes occurs on election night.

    There are now many ways to vote in the US – in person on Election Day, early voting before Election Day or by mail-in ballot. And the time it takes to count these different ballots can vary. So, it may appear as if one candidate is winning early in the night (say, when in-person votes are counted) only for their opponent to slowly turn the tide (when mail-in ballots are counted).

    In the 2020 election, this meant early Trump (“red”) leads were gradually lost to the Biden (“blue”) votes. Researchers found that counties won by Biden counted more slowly, on average, than those won by Trump – hence the so-called “blue shift”.

    This is an entirely normal – and legal – phenomenon. In Nevada, for instance, state law permits mail-in ballots to be counted four days after Election Day, so long as they were postmarked by Election Day.

    Trump and his surrogates like Steve Bannon, however, have exploited the differing times it takes to count votes to peddle baseless conspiracy theories, undermining Americans’ faith in their own democracy, and to incite unrest.

    By baselessly declaring victory in 2020 on the early “red mirage” tallies in key states before all the votes were counted, Trump was able to create what Bannon described as a “firestorm” – one that eventually led to the insurrection of January 6 2021.

    This could very well happen again. Bannon, in fact, has just been released from prison after serving four months for contempt of Congress, and could once again be a driving force in any post-election challenges by the Trump campaign.

    Trump, meanwhile, lied again this week when he said “these elections have to be, they have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night” – laying the groundwork for further election conspiracies.

    Delays are normal – but fraught

    Trump has made it very clear he will not accept another election loss. If he does lose, he or his surrogates will attempt to weaponise similar conspiracy theories again. They may also use legal challenges to vote counts as they did in 2020 – both to contest the result and to once again mobilise the MAGA movement.

    In the event of close margins, it’s also possible some states will go to a recount.

    There are different rules for this in different states. To take one example, if the margin is within 0.5% in Georgia, a candidate can request a recount.

    In the 2020 presidential election, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia by 0.25%, which triggered a full hand recount of the votes. The Associated Press declared Biden the winner of the state more than two weeks after Election Day. A second recount was later reconfirmed by Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

    Again, this is a normal part of the process. It ensures all votes are counted accurately and the result reflects the democratic will of the American people as best as the (admittedly, deeply flawed) system allows.

    Such a delay, legitimate as it would be, would elevate the already very real risk of further political violence and instability in the United States.

    None of these outcomes is inevitable. 2024 is not 2020; nor is it 2016. What happens next in America depends on the movement and interplay of so many tangled threads, it is impossible to see where old ones end and new ones might begin.

    In all of this, only one thing is certain. Whatever the result – and however long it takes to come through – the divisions and conspiracy theories that have destabilised American politics for so long will not be easily or quickly resolved. That knot may well prove impossible to untangle.

    Emma Shortis is Director of the International and Security Affairs program at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

    – ref. What to expect on Election Day: history could be made, or we’re in for a long wait (and plenty of conspiracies) – https://theconversation.com/what-to-expect-on-election-day-history-could-be-made-or-were-in-for-a-long-wait-and-plenty-of-conspiracies-242598

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A new campaign rewards young gamers on Roblox for engaging with the US election. What does it mean for global politics?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Orlando, Researcher: Digital Literacy and Digital Wellbeing, Western Sydney University

    Alex Photo Stock/Shutterstock

    If historical trends are anything to go by, most young people in the United States will not vote at this week’s presidential election. For example, at the 2016 presidential election, less than half of Americans aged 18 to 29 cast their ballot.

    But a new campaign on the hugely popular online gaming platform Roblox aims to encourage young people in the US to get out and exercise their democratic right on Tuesday.

    The “Virtual Vote” initiative is a partnership between Roblox game developers and a national political non-profit organisation called HeadCount.

    It has already engaged thousands of Roblox users – and it may mark the beginning of an entirely new way young people worldwide learn about and engage with real-life politics.

    The ultimate virtual universe

    Roblox is an online gaming platform where people can create an avatar, play a library of user-created games and socialise. Its developers describe it as the “the ultimate virtual universe”.

    It has roughly 79.5 million reported daily users globally and is valued at US$38 billion.

    The online gaming platform is especially popular among young people. However, it also poses a number of safety risks, including grooming and cyberbullying.

    Because of this, some governments have cracked down on Roblox. For example, earlier this year, it was banned in Turkey.

    Now the 2024 US presidential election has also entered the Roblox virtual gaming universe.

    From games to politics

    Virtual Vote is billed as the “first immersive civic engagement campaign”.

    Justin Hochberg, CEO of Virtual Brand Group (which develops games for Roblox) and the founder of Virtual Vote stated that his goal was simple:

    With 57% of gamers discovering global fashion, sports and entertainment brands while playing, this initiative meets Gen Z where they are to make a difference for the world’s biggest brand — #America.

    Virtual Vote was launched just four weeks ago in partnership with Headcount, a long-standing, not-for-profit youth voter engagement platform in the US. Other organisations – many of which are prominent in the online brand and content space – have also come on board.

    Players engage with Virtual Vote via popular games on Roblox, such as Livetopia, which has 4.7 billion user visits, and Karlie Kloss’s Fashion Klossette, which has 33.1 million total visits.

    Upon entering Virtual Vote, players meet Sam the Eagle, a guide who encourages them to check their voter registration status. Through Sam, players explore interactive maps showing state-specific voting rules and timelines.

    Virtual Vote is also a form of gaming and entertainment with big rewards and prizes for players who engage with it. Up for grabs is a trip to Hollywood to meet television presenter Jimmy Kimmel, VIP tickets to see musician Sabrina Carpenter, a snowboarding trip with champion American snowboarder Jamie Anderson, as well as limited-edition merchandise and content to play within Roblox.

    In the four weeks since its launch, Virtual Vote has had a strong response from Roblox users. More than 500,000 people have played the mini game so far – almost 4,000 of whom subsequently checked their voter registration status.

    Shaping political viewpoints online

    Platforms like Roblox, with their massive global youth audiences, are becoming increasingly important for shaping political views and real-world political engagement.

    Children and young adults immersed in these virtual worlds may be unknowingly absorbing information and perspectives that could influence their future voting decisions.

    Right now, the focus is on voter registration. However, given the huge impact it’s having, there is clear potential for such campaigns to become much more persuasive and biased.

    In future, we could see kids vying for rewards within online games or social media that may subtly shape their political viewpoints, which they then carry into how they vote as adults.

    This phenomenon has flown under the radar for the current US election. But its impact could be significant. Even more so since young people currently get so much of their news from social platforms.

    For example, the current trend on TikTok of women “cancelling out” the pro-Trump votes of their partners reinforces a gender binary for voting habits. These trending videos are fun, comedic, give minimal factual information. But some of them are getting up to two million views each.

    Similarly, election-themed videos – many of which have been identified as misinformation – on the popular online video platform YouTube have racked up millions of views in recent weeks.

    Exacerbating this situation is that young people often use social media, watch YouTube and play games on Roblox in combination. This can mean triple the impact of how these platforms can shape their political views.

    Online games and platforms are constantly shape-shifting and looking for new ways to engage with ever bigger global audiences.

    So wherever we live in the world, a campaign like Virtual Vote – seeking to achieve real-world political influence through an online video game platform – are important to pay attention to.

    Given the impact of Virtual Vote on so many young people, in such a short period of time, we can expect to see more political influence in their play. Shaping elections in the online space has just taken a new step.

    Joanne Orlando has received funding from the Office of the eSafety Commissioner.

    – ref. A new campaign rewards young gamers on Roblox for engaging with the US election. What does it mean for global politics? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-campaign-rewards-young-gamers-on-roblox-for-engaging-with-the-us-election-what-does-it-mean-for-global-politics-242901

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 31% of companies are not paying tax in Australia. How do they do it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kerrie Sadiq, Professor of Taxation, QUT Business School, and ARC Future Fellow, Queensland University of Technology

    Seb Zurcher/Unsplash

    Large companies paid the Australian government a record A$100 billion in tax in the last year, a 17% increase on the previous year. But, over the same period, there were still 31% of large companies, operating here but not paying any tax.

    The Australian Taxation Office’s annual corporate tax transparency report released last week includes data on nearly 4,000 of Australia’s largest corporations.

    In its tenth year, the report is lauded by the government and ATO as a way to increase corporate accountability and reduce tax avoidance. But there is no detail on the tax practices of multinational entities, including how they interact with their offices around the world.

    In particular, there is little information about how 1,200 companies paid no tax.

    What the report tells us

    The transparency report provides data on corporations with income of $100 million or more and businesses which pay the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT). This includes Australian public and foreign-owned corporate tax entities, as well as Australian-owned resident private companies.

    The report details the total income, taxable income, tax payable, and PRRT payable for all entities that meet the reporting threshold. Taxable income is simply assessable income minus deductions. Tax payable as a percentage of taxable income, can then be used to calculate an effective tax rate. The statutory corporate tax rate is 30%.

    A variation between an effective tax rate and the statutory tax rate is not evidence of tax avoidance. However, questions need to be asked about how profitable companies reduce their tax liability to zero.

    Zero liability can be achieved by deducting offsets and credits. For example, companies that conduct significant research and development are given tax breaks which reduce the amount of tax payable.

    Where a company has accounting losses or a tax loss because it has incurred more expenses than income, tax will be zero. These are legitimate reasons for paying no tax.

    But the limited information provided simply tells us how profitable a company is, the amount of tax deductions claimed against that profit, and the tax payable.

    What the report doesn’t tell us

    The transparency report reveals little about tax practices of multinational entities.

    The question remains what deductions are being claimed by corporations and tax entities. The ATO has this information but can only publish what the law allows them, which is limited.

    For multinationals, deductions will include dealings with overseas parts of the global entity, such as subsidiaries or the parent entity. These transactions create legitimate tax deductions.

    Common transactions include payments to overseas subsidiaries for services, royalty payments for intellectual property, and interest on overseas borrowings.

    In the case of petrol company Chevron, money was borrowed in the United States at around 1.2% and on lent to a related Australian entity at 9%.

    After a long court battle, about 5% of interest was allowed as a deduction, an amount significantly above the original interest rate. This gave Chevron in Australia a large tax deduction.

    It is through these types of transactions profits earned in Australia are shifted overseas. Current tax law allows this but requires the transaction, known as the transfer price, to be at arm’s length – that is, the price is agreed to between independent parties entering the same transaction.

    What is transfer pricing?

    Multinationals are global by nature and therefore logically maximise worldwide profits. Tax systems do not operate in the same way.

    Tax comes under domestic law which means transactions between parts of a global entity are recognised for tax purposes.

    If goods or services are sold by one part of the entity to another, an internal transaction occurs. For tax purposes the transaction is recognised as a deduction in one location and income in another. An Australian entity would pay a foreign party for things like marketing, and get a deduction for the expense.

    In recent years the ATO has settled marketing disputes with large multinationals including Google, BHP, Apple, Rio Tinto, ResMed and Microsoft.

    Where a deduction is allowed in a high tax jurisdiction, such as Australia, and income is included in the profits of a low tax jurisdiction, such as Singapore, the result is larger overall global profits.

    The tax system recognises the incentive for multinational entities to shift profits this way and requires transactions to be at a commercial or negotiated price. Determining the price however can be fraught and has led to numerous court cases and tax disputes.

    The tax transparency report reveals nothing about these types of transactions.

    Taxing multinationals in Australia

    In the last decade there have been moves to tax income in the location of the economic activity. The OECD has tried to stop profit shifting by companies, which erodes the tax base of high taxing jurisdictions, through its tax reform agenda.

    Further complicating the issue of transfer pricing is the question of whether there is any real activity in the countries where different parts of a multinational are located.

    Singapore is recognised for what are known as service hubs. These are places where various services such as sales negotiations are conducted and marketing occurs. Singapore also happens to have a headline corporate tax rate of 17%. This is often reduced to single digits after deals are entered into between taxpayers and the Singapore revenue authority.

    Intellectual property poses similar problems.

    These are increasingly valuable assets for multinational entities as they provide a unique edge in the market. We only need to think of Apple, Microsoft and Google to understand how valuable names, logos and designs are.

    By its very nature intellectual property has no physical location and can be owned anywhere in the world. Often, intellectual property is held in low or no tax countries.

    The transparency report includes no details about how much is transferred to these locations. This is where Australia’s proposed public country-by-country reporting may assist.

    Is the ATO’s corporate tax transparency report worthwhile?

    Australia should continue to strive to be a leader in corporate tax transparency.

    A two-step approach is required to eliminate corporate tax avoidance. Information is valuable and public transparency measures are an important first step.

    A second step, however, is to reform substantive tax laws to tax profits where they are genuinely being generated.

    Kerrie Sadiq is the recipient of a four year Australian Research Council Future Fellowship Grant.

    – ref. 31% of companies are not paying tax in Australia. How do they do it? – https://theconversation.com/31-of-companies-are-not-paying-tax-in-australia-how-do-they-do-it-242695

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Crossbenchers cancel their membership of airlines’ elite lounges

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Crossbench independents Allegra Spender, Helen Haines and Kate Chaney have declared they are pulling out of the elite lounges run by Qantas and Virgin, amid the ongoing spotlight on privileges politicians receive from the airlines.

    Allegra Spender, the member for the Sydney seat of Wentworth, also said she’d write to ask Qantas and Virgin not to give free upgrades to parliamentarians. It was “time to end the upgrades”.

    She said all sides of politics enjoyed the perks, and both major parties had blocked greater competition from Qatar Airways.

    Airlines operated under government policy and ministerial decisions, she said. “The public is understandably losing trust in politicians to make those decisions impartially when they’re being given free upgrades from the companies they’re supposed to regulate.”

    Spender urged a review of the ministerial code of conduct. Tighter rules were needed about what politicians could accept. The code should also be extended to shadow ministers. There should as well be much more transparency over the diaries of ministers, she said.

    “This is the only way to deal with the perception – and potential reality – of decisions being influenced by perks.”

    But Labor MP Luke Gosling, from the Darwin seat of Solomon, accused her of grandstanding. “It’s a bit rich from the people with harbour views who either drive or have less than a one-hour flight,” he told the ABC.

    Haines, from the Victorian regional seat of Indi, said she was quitting the lounges because she wanted “to remove any possibility of an actual or perceived conflict of interest” in her work as an MP.

    “The reality that airlines offer these kinds of perks because ultimately they want to get something in return does not sit well with me and I want to continue to contribute to creating a culture of transparency and accountability through my actions as well as my words.”

    Haines said she wanted “to see more rigorous rules around MP disclosures of upgrades and I think a ban on soliciting free flight upgrades is more than reasonable”.

    Chaney, who holds the Western Australian seat of Curtin, said with the media attention on the issue “we need to do everything we can to rebuild trust in politicians making decisions in the public interest”.

    Another crossbencher, Monique Ryan, from the Melbourne seat of Kooyong, who dropped her Qantas chairman’s lounge membership last year on integrity grounds, said she welcomed the discussion about the impact of corporate largesse on MPs’ decision-making.

    “I am deeply concerned about lobbying and its potential to impact government decision making. Free upgrades and airline hospitality are lobbying practices that we have taken for granted for a long time, and it is important that we re-examine them — especially given public concerns about conflicts of interest.”

    Meanwhile there is no indication of when opposition transport spokeswoman Bridget McKenzie, who was leading the charge against the prime minister over his upgrades, will produce a list of her own. She has said she has written to three airlines to check what upgrades she has had.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Crossbenchers cancel their membership of airlines’ elite lounges – https://theconversation.com/crossbenchers-cancel-their-membership-of-airlines-elite-lounges-242782

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Memes, photojournalism and television debates: 3 images that defined the 2024 US election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Message, Professor of Public Humanities and Director of the ANU Humanities Research Centre, Australian National University

    Visual images often last in historical and popular memory. This is especially the case in presidential campaigns in the United States, which offer a vast mix of spectacle, surprise and drama.

    An historian of political visual culture can no more predict which images are likely to last the test of time than we can know who will win. But we can explain why some historical images from presidential campaigns resonate.

    This election season has produced the most media savvy and diverse campaign imagery of all time. Cable news, social media and artificial intelligence have created a whole new universe of image-based narratives.

    In this rich visual landscape, here are three images likely to last the test of time.

    1. Trump’s ‘fight!’ photo

    The uncontroversial front-runner for defining image has to be Evan Vucci’s photograph of Donald Trump being led off the stage in Pennsylvania after surviving an assassination attempt in July.

    Many people, including Trump, were quick to elevate the photograph to the iconic status of Joe Rosenthal’s photograph of troops raising the flag on Iwo Jima during the second world war.

    Both are photographed from below and feature the national flag above Americans working against adversity to reach a common goal. Both fit squarely into the tradition of wartime photojournalism.

    Both photographs enjoyed instantaneous popularity: Trump’s image went viral and the Iwo Jima image was featured on a US postage stamp before the war’s end.

    But their greatest similarity resides in the cultural symbolism of the images.

    Both accurately represent an historical moment; a specific point in time. But the point in time has been actively selected to fit a narrative. The narratives projected are deeply held mythologised symbols of aspirational patriotism.



    Read more:
    Elevation, colour – and the American flag. Here’s what makes Evan Vucci’s Trump photograph so powerful

    Visual literacy prompts us to think about which images were discounted in the selection of these historically powerful two. Historical legacies and the national mythologies that fuel these lean toward images of success over pictures of wartime death and suffering.

    This image of Trump fits all the criteria we would typically and probably unconsciously apply when assessing if an image is likely to have long-term significance.

    The baseline characteristic of iconic images is a general bipartisan understanding of what an image “says”. Regardless of whether you agree with the message being conveyed, you understand its social context, why the image is provocative, dramatic or funny (or not), as well as its historical references.

    However, contemporary images are not always so straightforward to read – and in a post-truth AI world, it is harder than ever to decipher the visual culture of politics.

    2. Brat summer and coconut memes

    Kamala Harris’s youth and vision for the future headlined her campaign’s creation of “Kamala HQ”. The strategy adopted the bright green branding and font of Charli XCX’s smash album Brat after the pop star posted on X: “kamala IS brat”.

    Social media has been a critical tool in introducing Harris to voters, especially those of voting age for the first time in 2024. The campaign’s use of social media represented young people as engaged and respected decision makers.



    Read more:
    ‘Kamala IS brat’: how the power of pop music has influenced 60 years of US elections

    Voters have had more than a century to become accustomed to photojournalism. In contrast, a lot of social media representation has arisen from community activism over the past few years. Reporting from women’s marches this past weekend showed links to the visual culture of the protests that followed Trump’s 2016 election.

    Arguably, the most historically significant of this “youth vote” image category are the internet memes of coconuts and coconut trees.

    In a 2023 speech, Harris quoted her mother:

    You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.

    This moment went viral during the 2024 election, and it was not long before people started signalling their support for Harris by adding a coconut emoji to their profile or comments.

    The popularity of the coconut meme by Harris supporters indicates a rejection of the derogatory use of the term “coconut” against people of colour “acting white”.

    The production and reception of memes by younger voters demonstrates a media literacy and sophistication that also requires continuous fact-checking.

    This point was made in Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris, which urged her followers to do their own “reliability” checking of information in their feeds after Trump and other conservative figures shared AI-generated images of Swift and her fans allegedly supporting Trump.

    3. The televised debate handshake

    A key image from the debate between Harris and Trump came in the first few minutes, when Harris crossed the stage to offer her hand. It was the first debate handshake in eight years.

    This was a bold action given Trump’s prowling movement on the 2016 debate stage against Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, and his well documented predilection for firm handshakes.

    The handshake is representative of the campaign, which has been called “a referendum on gender”. It evoked the image of strong and confident leadership – a central theme as Harris spoke passionately about reproductive rights and abortion.

    Televised presidential debates are one of the most keenly watched and analysed moments of the presidential election season. Image is everything.

    Their importance is perhaps best indicated by Justin Sullivan’s photograph of President Joe Biden, mouth agape and looking frail beneath the word “presidential” during the June debate this year.

    While they rarely lead to an outcome as extreme as a candidate exiting the race, as ended up happening with Biden, the images and soundbites they generate can resonate for decades.

    During the first ever nationally televised presidential debate in 1960, Republican candidate Richard Nixon was said to be unwell and refused to wear makeup. Compared to his opponent, Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy, he sweated profusely on stage, creating an image that was disastrous to his eventually unsuccessful campaign.

    Between the staged and “gotcha” moments of every presidential campaign, debates provide a unique – and, in 2024, a singular – window into how the candidates relate to each other as humans across an ever-widening ideological divide.

    Kylie Message has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Memes, photojournalism and television debates: 3 images that defined the 2024 US election – https://theconversation.com/memes-photojournalism-and-television-debates-3-images-that-defined-the-2024-us-election-242689

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What happens if you have a HELP debt and kids? The missed opportunity in Labor’s plan to fix student loans

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Warburton, Honorary Senior Fellow, Centre for the Study of Higher Education, The University of Melbourne

    Rogut/Pexels , CC BY

    The Albanese government has announced several significant changes to student loans to start in mid-2025.

    These include wiping 20% off debts, increasing the income threshold for compulsory repayments, and changing the amounts people have to repay.

    As well as encouraging Australians to study, the changes aim to provide cost-of-living relief – or, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Monday:

    putting more dollars in the pockets of people who feel, justifiably, that they’re getting the rough end of the pineapple.

    The changes are certainly an improvement. Unfortunately, they are not as good as they should be – particularly if you have a HELP debt and a family to support.

    What is the point of HELP?

    My analysis of the most recently released tax statistics indicates more than 70% of those required to make a HELP repayment in 2021–22 earned between A$60,000 and A$120,000. Only 20% earned more than $120,000 and less than 10% earned less than $60,000.

    The HECS (now HELP) system was conceived in the 1980s as a way to generate revenue to help the government pay for an expansion of university places.

    It doesn’t matter if people do not repay all of their loans. The primary purpose is to have students who have benefited, and can afford to contribute to the cost of their education, give something back.

    While fairness has always been a key plank of HECS/HELP, there are some major problems with the system. And the changes announced over the weekend continue to ignore them.

    The HECS/HELP system was designed so students would only repay loans if they had the capacity to do so.
    Enrico Della Pietra/ Shutterstock

    What about families?

    Student loan arrangements have never taken account of other government payments and obligations such as social security, taxation rates, taxation rebates and Medicare levies.

    As I have shown in this analysis, for some family types, HELP repayments combine to produce ridiculous effective tax rates.

    Imagine the following scenarios for someone with a HELP debt, earning between $60,000 and $100,000 and who had a pay increase in this income range.

    In 2022-23, if you were single with no kids, the average effective tax rate on the extra earnings was 51%.

    If you were single with two kids aged four and seven, the average effective tax rate on the extra earnings was 77%. If those children were ten and 13, it was 73%.

    The situation is similar in a couple family with two children where only one parent is able to work. The working parent has little incentive to increase their earned income and this won’t change much under the new proposals.

    The reason people in these situations keep so little of their extra earnings is because as family incomes increase, they lose family tax benefits, they pay more tax and their Medicare levy increases.

    There is not enough attention paid to how all these arrangements interact and how they affect people overall.

    We need to know many families are paying HELP

    The government’s plan to increase the HELP repayment threshold to those with an annual income of $67,000 is a welcome improvement. The system was never intended to take money off people with virtually no capacity to pay.

    The government’s plan to simplify the repayment arrangements is also a positive step. The current system has 18 different repayment rates applied to total income, which means people are repeatedly going backwards when they earn extra money. The new plan to only calculate repayments on dollars over the threshold (the marginal rate approach) stops this from happening.

    But the system continues to disregard how people with HELP debts can be in different family circumstances.

    In my work on HELP, I often get asked how many HELP debtors have dependent children. The answer is I do not know and neither does the government.

    None of the data which the government releases provides any information on family circumstances, despite the fact around $4.6 billion was collected from 1.2 million individuals in 2021-22 (the most recent year we have for this data).

    This is vital information to make good policy and fair decisions but we do not have it.

    Could these problems be fixed?

    We could reduce many of the worst impacts here with a single marginal rate for calculating HELP repayments and thresholds which varied depending on the number of children and partner’s income.

    The repayment rate and thresholds could be adjusted to deliver an acceptable repayment level for individuals and sufficient revenue for government to support university funding.

    There is no point in pretending the current system is one in which people have an insignificant level of debt that is repaid quickly after university.

    Typical students today are finishing their degrees owing around $60,000 and many have debts much larger than this. They will continue to make repayments well into their thirties when they have families.

    It is time we had a system that truly recognised this.

    Mark Warburton is a member of the Australian Labor Party and occasional provider of consultancy services to groups such as Universities Australia and the Australian Technology Network.

    – ref. What happens if you have a HELP debt and kids? The missed opportunity in Labor’s plan to fix student loans – https://theconversation.com/what-happens-if-you-have-a-help-debt-and-kids-the-missed-opportunity-in-labors-plan-to-fix-student-loans-242758

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bird flu has been detected in a pig in the US. Why does that matter?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC L3 Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney

    David MG/Shutterstock

    The United States Department of Agriculture last week reported that a pig on a backyard farm in Oregon was infected with bird flu.

    As the bird flu situation has evolved, we’ve heard about the A/H5N1 strain of the virus infecting a range of animals, including a variety of birds, wild animals and dairy cattle.

    Fortunately, we haven’t seen any sustained spread between humans at this stage. But the detection of the virus in a pig marks a worrying development in the trajectory of this virus.

    How did we get here?

    The most concerning type of bird flu currently circulating is clade 2.3.4.4b of A/H5N1, a strain of influenza A.

    Since 2020, A/H5N1 2.3.4.4b has spread to a vast range of birds, wild animals and farm animals that have never been infected with bird flu before.

    While Europe is a hotspot for A/H5N1, attention is currently focused on the US. Dairy cattle were infected for the first time in 2024, with more than 400 herds affected across at least 14 US states.

    Bird flu has enormous impacts on farming and commercial food production, because infected poultry flocks have to be culled, and infected cows can result in contaminated diary products. That said, pasteurisation should make milk safe to drink.

    While farmers have suffered major losses due to H5N1 bird flu, it also has the potential to mutate to cause a human pandemic.

    Birds and humans have different types of receptors in their respiratory tract that flu viruses attach to, like a lock (receptors) and key (virus). The attachment of the virus allows it to invade a cell and the body and cause illness. Avian flu viruses are adapted to birds, and spread easily among birds, but not in humans.

    So far, human cases have mainly occurred in people who have been in close contact with infected farm animals or birds. In the US, most have been farm workers.

    The concern is that the virus will mutate and adapt to humans. One of the key steps for this to happen would be a shift in the virus’ affinity from the bird receptors to those found in the human respiratory tract. In other words, if the virus’ “key” mutated to better fit with the human “lock”.

    A recent study of a sample of A/H5N1 2.3.4.4b from an infected human had worrying findings, identifying mutations in the virus with the potential to increase transmission between human hosts.

    Why are pigs a problem?

    A human pandemic strain of influenza can arise in several ways. One involves close contact between humans and animals infected with their own specific flu viruses, creating opportunities for genetic mixing between avian and human viruses.

    Pigs are the ideal genetic mixing vessel to generate a human pandemic influenza strain, because they have receptors in their respiratory tracts which both avian and human flu viruses can bind to.

    This means pigs can be infected with a bird flu virus and a human flu virus at the same time. These viruses can exchange genetic material to mutate and become easily transmissible in humans.


    The Conversation, CC BY-SA

    Interestingly, in the past pigs were less susceptible to A/H5N1 viruses. However, the virus has recently mutated to infect pigs more readily.

    In the recent case in Oregon, A/H5N1 was detected in a pig on a non-commercial farm after an outbreak occurred among the poultry housed on the same farm. This strain of A/H5N1 was from wild birds, not the one that is widespread in US dairy cows.

    The infection of a pig is a warning. If the virus enters commercial piggeries, it would create a far greater level of risk of a pandemic, especially as the US goes into winter, when human seasonal flu starts to rise.

    How can we mitigate the risk?

    Surveillance is key to early detection of a possible pandemic. This includes comprehensive testing and reporting of infections in birds and animals, alongside financial compensation and support measures for farmers to encourage timely reporting.

    Strengthening global influenza surveillance is crucial, as unusual spikes in pneumonia and severe respiratory illnesses could signal a human pandemic. Our EPIWATCH system looks for early warnings of such activity, which can speed up vaccine development.

    If a cluster of human cases occurs, and influenza A is detected, further testing (called subtyping) is essential to ascertain whether it’s a seasonal strain, an avian strain from a spillover event, or a novel pandemic strain.

    Early identification can prevent a pandemic. Any delay in identifying an emerging pandemic strain enables the virus to spread widely across international borders.

    Australia’s first human case of A/H5N1 occurred in a child who acquired the infection while travelling in India, and was hospitalised with illness in March 2024. At the time, testing revealed Influenza A (which could be seasonal flu or avian flu), but subtyping to identify A/H5N1 was delayed.

    This kind of delay can be costly if a human-transmissible A/H5N1 arises and is assumed to be seasonal flu because the test is positive for influenza A. Only about 5% of tests positive for influenza A are subtyped further in Australia and most countries.

    In light of the current situation, there should be a low threshold for subtyping influenza A strains in humans. Rapid tests which can distinguish between seasonal and H5 influenza A are emerging, and should form part of governments’ pandemic preparedness.

    A higher risk than ever before

    The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states that the current risk posed by H5N1 to the general public remains low.

    But with H5N1 now able to infect pigs, and showing worrying mutations for human adaptation, the level of risk has increased. Given the virus is so widespread in animals and birds, the statistical probability of a pandemic arising is higher than ever before.

    The good news is, we are better prepared for an influenza pandemic than other pandemics, because vaccines can be made in the same way as seasonal flu vaccines. As soon as the genome of a pandemic influenza virus is known, the vaccines can be updated to match it.

    Partially matched vaccines are already available, and some countries such as Finland are vaccinating high-risk farm workers.

    C Raina MacIntyre receives funding from NHMRC (L3 Investigator grant and Centre for Research Excellence) and MRFF (Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 experimentally and in an intensive care setting) currently. She currently receives funding from Sanofi for research on influenza and pertussis. She is the director of EPIWATCH®️, which is a UNSW, Kirby Institute initiative. She has been an invited speaker at the 2024 Options for The Control of Influenza at four symposia organised by Moderna, Pfizer, Sanofi and Seqirus respectively.

    Haley Stone receives funding from The Balvi Filantropic Fund. Haley Stone would like to acknowledge the support through a University International Postgraduate Award from the University of New South Wales.

    – ref. Bird flu has been detected in a pig in the US. Why does that matter? – https://theconversation.com/bird-flu-has-been-detected-in-a-pig-in-the-us-why-does-that-matter-242688

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Yes, burning gas is bad for the climate. But keeping it in Australia’s energy mix is sensible

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger Dargaville, Director Monash Energy Institute, Monash University

    Shutterstock

    Both major parties in Australia see a significant role for gas as the world shifts to clean energy in a bid to avert dangerous climate change.

    The Albanese government says new sources of gas are needed to meet demand during the energy transition. And the Coalition, if elected, would expand gas use as it prepares for nuclear power.

    Of course, some people argue that the grave threat of climate change means we should not burn any gas. Others say the strong growth in renewable energy generation and storage means Australia won’t need gas into the future.

    So who is right? As I explain below, renewable energy is a huge part of the solution but doesn’t solve every problem. So keeping some gas-fired generators in the electricity mix, and using them only when necessary, is a sensible compromise.

    Getting to grips with gas

    There are almost 40 large natural gas-fired generators in Australia, and they are an important part of the National Electricity Market.

    According to Open Electricity — a platform for tracking Australia’s electricity transition – the gas facilities generate around 4% of the electricity we consume and comprise about 17% of overall generation capacity.

    The data also shows gas plants in Australia run at just 9% of their overall capacity, meaning they are idle much of the time. Some gas plants get used quite a lot, others only rarely. But when the plants are called on – during times of peak electricity use – their services are vital.

    Overnight, our demand for electricity dips. But when we wake in the morning and start toasting bread and boiling kettles and the like, electricity demand picks up.

    Demand eases off in the middle of the day as the sun rises high in the sky and Australia’s booming rooftop solar reaches its peak electricity output. But when the sun sets and rooftop solar is no longer producing, electricity use peaks. This early-evening demand creates a big challenge to the system.

    That’s why we need technologies that can produce electricity at any time of day or night – and do it quickly. That’s where gas-fired generation – and other “dispatchable” forms of electricity – come in.

    How do gas fired generators work?

    Gas generators come in two main types.

    An “open cycle generator”, also known as a Brayton cycle turbine, is essentially a jet engine. It combusts gas in a chamber to create enormous pressure that spins large fans. This drives a shaft that spins in the generator to produce electricity.

    This technology is relatively cheap to build and can start up very quickly – but it’s also quite inefficient to operate. It uses a lot of expensive fuel, and creates a lot of waste heat.

    The second type is known as a “combined cycle generator”. It also uses a Brayton cycle gas turbine. But it captures exhaust heat from the turbine and uses it to create steam, which in turn powers a second turbine (known as a Rankine cycle). This significantly increases the amount of electricity produced for the same amount of gas burned.

    So while this technology is relatively efficient, it’s also more expensive to build and takes longer to ramp up and down.

    Other types of gas generators exist, but they’re a relatively small part of Australia’s fleet.

    A video explaining how gas turbines work.

    Gas is not the only option

    Gas plants are not the only facilities capable of firming up Australia’s electricity grid as the share of renewables increases.

    Hydro power can also quickly ramp up to meet the evening peak. However the potential for building new conventional hydro in Australia is very limited due to the lack of large river systems and the significant environmental impact on rivers and surrounding areas.

    Coal-fired generators have potential to ramp up production, but are generally not designed to do this every evening. Plus, Australia’s fleet of old coal plants is on a fast path to retirement.

    To maintain the delicate balance of supply and demand, more will be required of gas and hydro, to produce electricity, and batteries and pumped hydro, to store it.

    Pumped hydro works by using excess renewable energy to pump water up a hill. When electricity demand is high, the water is released and passes through a turbine, producing power.

    The potential for pumped hydro energy storage in Australia is large, and some projects are likely to be economically viable. But the projects can face challenges, as demonstrated by delays and cost blowouts facing Snowy 2.0 in New South Wales.

    Large-scale lithium-ion batteries are relatively easy to install. Many projects have been built or are in the pipeline. But batteries are not great for long-duration energy storage.

    All this means gas-fired power generation is likely to have a future in Australia in coming decades.

    The downsides of gas

    Methane is the main component of natural gas. It’s also a potent contributor to global warming.

    During natural gas production and transport, gas leaks inevitably occur. This is a problem for climate change.

    So too is the carbon dioxide produced when the gas is burned to produce electricity.

    To tackle climate change, we must dramatically reduce the amount of gas we use in our electricity system. Gas use should also be eliminated for heating and cooking in our homes and, where possible, in industry.

    So where does that leave us?

    Unfortunately, no perfect solution exists to Australia’s electricity supply-demand conundrum.

    The most likely, most economic and most environmentally acceptable approach is to use a “portfolio” of technologies: lots of batteries and pumped hydro but also some gas.

    Because to keep the system stable and reliable, we need some capacity that will mostly sit idle, getting used on only a few occasions. For that reason, the technologies should be relatively cheap to build and able to run for extended periods when wind and solar generation are abnormally low.

    Gas-fired power – especially open cycle generators – meets that requirement. Pumped hydro and batteries do not.

    The gas plants we keep in the grid will not often be used, and so will produce relatively low amounts of carbon dioxide.

    Nuanced questions remain. What will it cost to keep a gas network operating to serve a fleet of gas generators that run only for a few days a year? Gas pipelines have to be kept pressurised, and the cost of running a gas extraction network for small demand may also be uneconomical.

    Non-fossil options such as biogas, hydrogen or synthetically produced methane are possible longer term options. But they are also expensive. And new technologies – such as flow batteries, thermal energy storage and cryogenic energy storage – are on the horizon.

    So, keeping some gas-fired generators on standby, and using them sparingly as needed, is a reasonable approach. It allows us to reduce emissions as much as possible, and keep our electricity system secure and affordable.

    Roger Dargaville receives funding from the Woodside-Monash Energy Partnership, RACE for 2030 CRC, and he consults for industry and government bodies.

    – ref. Yes, burning gas is bad for the climate. But keeping it in Australia’s energy mix is sensible – https://theconversation.com/yes-burning-gas-is-bad-for-the-climate-but-keeping-it-in-australias-energy-mix-is-sensible-241689

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese flags radical changes to student debt – with a 20% overall cut and drop in payment rates

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University

    Taoty/Shutterstock

    Over the weekend, the Albanese government announced radical changes to student loans, which would kick in after the next federal election.

    Three million Australians with student debt could see their balances cut by 20%. The remaining debt would be repaid under a new system, with no compulsory repayments for people earning less than A$67,000 a year. Both changes require parliamentary approval.

    The changes will apply to everyone with a student debt, including all HELP (formerly HECS), vocational education and Australian apprenticeship support loans, as well as other student support loans.

    People with student debt would undoubtedly benefit from the proposed changes. But they come with a hefty price tag and some disadvantages.

    What are the proposed cuts to student debt?

    As of June 30 this year, Australia’s higher education student debt totalled about $75.1 billion – although this is soon set to drop by about $3 billion. Legislation to partially reverse recent indexation to debts will go to the Senate later this month.

    However, staying with the $75 billion, a 20% cut would be about $15 billion.

    Using the government’s figures, someone with the average HELP debt of $27,600 would see around $5,520 cut from their HELP loans next year.

    Vocational education students owed $8.4 billion as of June 30 2024. Their balances would reduce by about $1.7 billion under the changes.

    Based on previous student support loan data, this debt is more than $3 billion. The changes would see it drop by about $600 million.

    These reductions total $17.3 billion compared to the government’s estimate of $16 billion. But the upcoming indexation changes may explain this difference.

    Repayments set to change

    These changes have two important elements: the income at which repayments start and how repayments are calculated.

    These changes come amid a cost-of-living crisis and rising fees for students.

    There was a noted outcry earlier this year when the cost of an arts degree hit $50,000 for 2025.

    No compulsory repayments if you earn under $67,000

    With parliament’s approval, for 2025-26 compulsory repayments on student loans would not start until the debtor was earning $67,000. This is up from about $56,000.

    This would help a significant number of Australians. In 2023-24 more than 400,000 debtors had incomes between $50,000 and $70,000.

    Changes to how repayments are calculated

    Another significant change is to how repayments are calculated. Currently, when a debtor’s income reaches one of 18 income levels they repay a higher percentage, based on all their income.

    This can produce strange results. Take a graduate earning $62,850 a year. They are in the 1% of income repayment rate, so they owe the Australian Taxation Office $628.50 in HELP repayments. But if their income goes up by $1 to $62,851 they enter the 2% repayment bracket, and owe the tax office $1,257. So a $1 pay increase would reduce the graduate’s take home pay by more than $600.

    Under the government’s proposal, repayments would be calculated on income above a threshold, ignoring all income below the first threshold.

    The new system would start with a 15% repayment rate at incomes between $67,000 and $124,999. Income at $125,000 or above would have a 17% repayment rate.

    So, take a graduate on $70,000 a year. Under the current system, they will repay 2.5% of all their income, which is $1,750. Under the proposed system their repayments will be calculated only on the $3,000 difference between $67,000 and $70,000. This means they pay 15% of $3,000 or $450.

    The government says on average, repayments will drop by $680 per individual debtor.

    But those earning $180,000 plus will repay more student debt each year due to the new system. This is not a large group.
    Of the 1.16 million people who made a HELP repayment in 2021-22, all but 16,000 earned less than $180,000.

    The cost of an arts degree is set to reach $50,000 in 2025, amid growing concerns over study costs.
    rongyiquan/Shutterstock

    There are some disadvantages

    The downside of reduced annual repayments is longer repayment periods and more indexation of HELP balances.

    People who want to repay more quickly can make voluntary repayments, which have increased significantly in recent years. But most people take the default option of compulsory repayments only.

    While people who currently hold debt will see their repayment times reduced after the 20% cut to their balance, future borrowers won’t have this benefit.

    Given the pattern of recent announcements, it would not be surprising if the government also announced reduced student contributions for future borrowers.

    But it is also surprising the government has been stalling for two years on the high cost of arts degrees, set to hit almost $17,000 a year next year. These high fees should have been reduced long ago.

    The cost to government

    The 20% reduction in student debt balances will also come at a very significant cost to government and taxpayers.

    This will not be the full $16 billion they have announced, since that includes debt that is not expected to be repaid anyway.

    For higher education debt, the government actuary estimates 24% of the debt outstanding as of June 30 this year will not be repaid. Even so, a 20% cut to the $57.1 billion “good” debt would still cost $11.4 billion.

    Cutting vocational education debt by 20% would add around another $1 billion to the cost, after deducting debt that won’t be repaid. Debts for student income support tend to have high bad debt rates, but the 20% cut for them would also add to the government’s expenditure.

    The government will also incur further costs from slowing down future repayments.

    Is this the best way?

    The last few years have highlighted how stressful and damaging high levels of student debt can be for younger Australians.

    And as Labor looks ahead to the next federal poll, reducing individuals’ debts and repayments could be a useful election selling point.

    However, the Albanese govenrment’s plan comes with a high price tag and the priorities may not be entirely right. Managing future debt, such as by reversing fee hikes under the Job-ready Graduates program, is as important as reducing old debt.

    Andrew Norton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese flags radical changes to student debt – with a 20% overall cut and drop in payment rates – https://theconversation.com/albanese-flags-radical-changes-to-student-debt-with-a-20-overall-cut-and-drop-in-payment-rates-242740

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: it’s time to put some new rules around upgrades for parliamentarians

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Qantas upgrades affair has turned from a missile targeted at Anthony Albanese to a cluster bomb hitting MPs on all sides.

    On Sunday, Education Minister Jason Clare took the opportunity provided by an interview on Sky about the government’s proposal to slash 20% off student debt to relate, in detail, why he requested a Qantas upgrade in 2019 for a private trip to Singapore.

    He’d had an operation on his leg. He was catching up with his family already overseas. He contacted someone – he’s forgotten who – in Qantas.

    On the other side of politics, the Nationals’ Bridget McKenzie, who’s been in hot pursuit of Albanese over his upgrades, is yet to produce full details of her own situation.  She’s asked the airlines for the information.

    Then there’s the Liberals’ Paul Fletcher, who apparently likes to book economy on flights of under two hours. He’s had 69 upgrades over almost 15 years.

    It’s important to remember what the rules are. Parliamentarians in their work are entitled to fly business class on domestic trips.  In some cases, they choose to fly economy on short hauls and business on longer ones.

    In the wake of the ongoing revelations, surely it is time to fix the rules. One obvious change should be a ban on upgrades for all personal travel, domestic or overseas, by parliamentarians. If MPs do not want the discomfort of economy class on holidays or other excursions, they should pay to avoid it.

    Another change should be that the minister for transport, and the shadow minister, should decline upgrades for their official travel. That avoids any suggestion of being influenced by such perks.

    This parliamentary week is devoted, in the Senate, to estimates hearings, so there will be some grilling on the first day about upgrades, and also about the fabled Qantas chairman’s lounge, a networking facility which those with power are invited to join.

    “The Chairman’s Lounge” is the title of the book by journalist Joe Aston that kicked off the furore a week ago.

    The estimates hearings are also likely to see opposition senators probe the entrails of whether Lidia Thorpe, who demonstrated  noisily at the parliamentary reception for the King, has or has not been properly sworn in as a senator.

    Thorpe substituted the word “hairs” for “heirs” when she read the oath. But she signed the paper, and constitutional expert Anne Twomey thinks she’s met the requirements.

    McKenzie has been among those targeting Thorpe. But  if, when the full Senate sits later in the month, the opposition tries to have action taken against Thorpe, it will just serve her cause.

    Thorpe wants publicity and that would give her plenty more. To be attempting to censure or even have disqualified an Indigenous senator would send a bad signal, at home (where some Indigenous people back her) and abroad.

    The House of Representatives this week will have a heap of legislation before it, including the bill on misinformation and disinformation. There will be another to keep the NBN in public hands, as well as the aged care reforms.

    But we’re still awaiting an announcement on restricting gambling advertising, and a bill to put an age limit on young people signing up to social media accounts.

    We won’t be seeing before the election legislation for the prime minister’s  announcement on  cutting student debt by 20%, and other changes relating to its repayment, that he unveiled at the weekend.

    Unlike the government’s earlier change to the indexation of this debt, now before the Senate, these new measures are promises – conditional on Labor winning next year’s election.

    If that happens, Albanese says this will be “the first piece of legislation we bring into the next parliament”. The  20% cut would be from loan accounts that exist on June 1 next year.

    The government says this is worth $16 billion, although experts point out the real figure – that is, the cost to taxpayers – is several billion dollars less because a portion of these loans would never be repaid anyway.

    We do not have a precise timeline for the cost, which the government says would be borne over the life of the debt. No doubt the estimates hearings will see some delving into this promise, that is squarely directed at millennial voters and those younger and focused on the cost of living.  

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: it’s time to put some new rules around upgrades for parliamentarians – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-its-time-to-put-some-new-rules-around-upgrades-for-parliamentarians-242744

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Exploring the extraordinary potential (and avoiding the pitfalls) of your local Buy Nothing group

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Madeline Taylor, Lecturer, School of Design, Queensland University of Technology

    Spaskov/Shutterstock

    You might have heard about your local Buy Nothing Project group on Facebook. If not, you probably know someone who’s a member. We estimate at least one million Australians are involved as members or live in households with a member (probably their mum).

    Buy Nothing groups enable people to ask for and give away unneeded stuff in their neighbourhood. Whether it’s gifting excess garden produce or an outgrown toy, or asking for winter clothes or to borrow a power tool, the groups help people help others.

    Australia has more than 500 of these groups, each with 500–3,000 members. While ordinary in operation and humble in commitment to neighbourhood generosity, these groups have extraordinary potential to reduce consumption and waste. Our research also suggests they improve community wellbeing.

    Homes and neighbourhoods have a big role to play in the transition to a circular economy. This kind of economy shares, reuses, repairs, repurposes and recycles materials and products for as long as possible. This circularity is crucial, because getting to net zero is a difficult ask without public buy-in on reducing consumption.

    However, our research also finds Buy Nothing groups are not immune to older gendered scripts of household labour. Most group members are women, many of them mothers. It is they who are taking, or expected to take, responsibility for finding or disposing of the stuff that fills their family’s homes and lives. This has troubling implications for how we think about action and responsibility for household waste.

    How do Buy Nothing groups work?

    Since its founding in the United States in 2013, the Buy Nothing Project has grown quickly. There are 128,000 Buy Nothing communities around the world today.

    Other online platforms also help people redistribute used goods. But several membership rules make the project unique. The two strictest rules are:

    • “give where you live” by joining only one hyper-localised Facebook group

    • all products must be given or asked for, for free, with “no strings attached”.

    Each local group covers just a few suburbs. Volunteer admins run these groups and enforce the project’s rules and values.

    Buy Nothing Project co-founder Rebecca Rockefeller talks about its origins.

    Why do people join?

    In our study, members cited various reasons for joining and continuing to be involved. The “free stuff” was an obvious motivation. Yet they more often mentioned wanting to help others and sustainability and environmental concerns.

    The minimal barriers to participation helped to reduce any perceived financial or logistical challenges associated with sustainable consumption.

    Interviewees also said their involvement helped them connect with their community. People found much joy and satisfaction in building social networks and helping others.

    People are even gifting items with substantial resale value, such as laptops or bikes. This suggests they value the community connection more than the money they might have been able to get from a sale.

    The data we gathered show these groups have more “gifts” than “asks”. This indicates we have many unused items in our homes. It also highlights a common hesitancy to rely on others, which the Buy Nothing Project seeks to overcome.

    Operating online offers people a high degree of control over when and how they take part. Buy Nothing participation varied based on life circumstances. Parenthood, natural disasters, pandemics, evolving personal values and educational experiences all influenced people’s engagement.

    Participants appreciate the platform’s user information, such as names and profile images. This fostered feelings of familiarity, reciprocity and community.

    But the online environment also allows some anonymity and a relaxed or blended approach to the “buy nothing” ethos. People still feel free to buy things when they need to.

    Many participants engage regularly with the group via a quick daily scroll through Facebook. Using the for-profit platform caused some concerns for the founders, who felt it conflicted with the movement’s values. But attempts to move away from Facebook to an app were largely unsuccessful.

    The cost-of-living crisis has spurred on the global growth of Buy Nothing groups.

    What are the broader benefits of Buy Nothing?

    Buy Nothing membership can be very educational. Via a “drip feed” of materials in their social media feed, members see others like them engage in environmentally conscious behaviours. As one member said:

    The more I have been in [the group], the more I am appreciating the concept.

    Such exposure normalises circular gifting and asking behaviours, encouraging members to adopt them too.

    Within households, group membership fosters discussions and behaviours related to sustainability. Many members talk with their children about product reuse, charity and awareness of others’ needs.

    Households can play a crucial role in adopting environmental innovations. This is because they serve as hubs for social interactions and the spread of knowledge.

    But conflicts over sustainable practices also arise within households. Members reported “pulling their families along”. One recalled her struggle to convince her husband to reduce household waste. She was “dragging him kicking and screaming along” but now he was “starting to appreciate some value” in her efforts to reduce their waste.

    Our participants’ domestic frustrations mirrored broader anxieties about climate change and the environmental impacts of too many belongings and waste. They linked personal anxiety about clutter with global issues such as exporting waste to poor countries and low-quality donations overwhelming charities.

    Women still bear most of the burden of managing household waste.
    Elena Babanova/Shutterstock

    But gendered roles are troubling

    Group admins told us 75-80% of group members are women, as were most admins themselves. This leads us to an uncomfortable tension: a desire to recognise overlooked economic practices while resisting the perpetuation of gender stereotypes. Just as household consumption and its excesses is positioned as women’s responsibility, managing household waste has historically disproportionately consumed women’s time.

    Members said they managed both their belongings and those of others, including parents and children. One said:

    I feel like I’m the only person who ever takes anything out of our house.

    While celebrating this sustainable activity, we should recognise women are doing most of this work.

    I am a member of my local Buy Nothing group – both for personal and research purposes.

    – ref. Exploring the extraordinary potential (and avoiding the pitfalls) of your local Buy Nothing group – https://theconversation.com/exploring-the-extraordinary-potential-and-avoiding-the-pitfalls-of-your-local-buy-nothing-group-221986

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In the US, political division can take a significant toll on people’s health. Australia should pay attention

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lesley Russell, Adjunct Associate Professor, Menzies Centre for Health Policy and Economics, University of Sydney

    MSPhotographic/Shutterstock

    Stark health disparities exist across the United States. Life expectancy is lower than in other wealthy countries – and declining. The richest American men live 15 years longer than their poorest counterparts. The richest American women live ten years longer.

    Political differences are an interesting and provocative way of looking at these disparities.

    Differences are frequently analysed by race, a proxy for other factors that influence health, such as housing, environmental pollution, nutrition and affordable access to health care.

    But there are other ways to cut the data. This includes by state – whether it is “red” (governed by the Republican party) or “blue” (by the Democrats). We can also look at individual political affiliation.

    One new study from the US looks at political polarisation as a risk factor for individual and collective wellbeing. It finds polarisation – where opinions and beliefs become concentrated at opposing extremes – has a major impact on health.

    The paper explores the health risks of polarisation using the COVID pandemic as a case study. COVID saw Americans die at far higher rates than people in other wealthy nations.

    Australia escaped the high death toll. But there are still significant lessons we can learn – about how increasing polarisation affects our health and wellbeing, and for the effective management of pandemics and other health crises.

    Political orientation and health

    The relationship between important health measures, political loyalties and voting patterns in US counties and states is significant. At the state level, policy-making has become increasingly linked to political ideology. With this, differences in lifespan and health status across states have grown.

    Political division in the United States intensified during the COVID pandemic.
    Ron Adar/Shutterstock

    On average, life expectancy for residents in Democratic-voting states is more than two years longer than in Republican states. Political orientation is also a strong predictor of obesity rates and chronic illnesses linked to obesity, such as heart disease and diabetes.

    Red states have higher gun death rates than blue states.

    The chronic use of prescription opioid drugs has also been linked to socio-economic disadvantage, health behaviours and the lack of mental health and substance abuse services in red states.

    Much of this is due to differences in social policies, such as Medicaid. All of the ten states yet to take up the Obamacare expansion of Medicaid – which provides health insurance for poor people – are run by Republicans.

    The scale of welfare programs and firearm regulations in these states also play a role.

    Stress of a polarised political climate

    Large numbers of Americans also report that politics takes a significant toll on their health. This is caused by stress, loss of sleep, suicidal thoughts, an inability to stop thinking about politics and engagement with social media, for example, making posts they later regret.

    A study from 2021 showed people who are more ideologically extreme than their state’s average voter have worse physical and mental health.

    This political partisanship has been greatly aggravated by Donald Trump’s arrival on the American political scene. The former Republican president has stoked social division and undermined trust in government, scientific expertise and public health organisations. Disinformation and misinformation continue to spread.

    All of this was on show in how the Trump administration handled the COVID pandemic. Trump and other political leaders made the situation worse by linking health behaviours (such as mask-wearing and vaccination) to partisan identity.

    There was a clear impact on the rates of COVID infection and death. Red states implemented fewer political decisions to mitigate COVID than blue states. And after vaccines became available, residents of pro-Trump counties – less likely to be vaccinated – were more than twice as likely to die from COVID as those in areas that supported Biden.

    It is also interesting to look at the role of education here. Low education levels were found to be a strong and independent predictor of whether you were more likely to die from COVID in the United States. This might be explained by the relationship between education and both collective culture and individual literacy.

    There is also a strong link between education and political affiliation.

    College graduates are more likely to vote Democratic, while those without a degree, especially white Americans, are more likely to vote Republican. This was not explored in the new US study about health and polarisation.

    Erosion of trust is dangerous for health

    Trust in government is another key factor not addressed in that research. But in Australia, this is top of mind following the release of the COVID-19 Response Inquiry Report, which found the federal government must work to rebuild trust after lockdowns and other mandates.

    Greater trust in government is linked to increased political participation, social cohesion and collaboration in tackling societal challenges. In both Europe and the United States, social cohesion and public trust in politicians and experts have been linked to lower excess mortality from COVID.

    In Australia, the Australian Cohesion Index shows the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis have eroded trust in government and affected health and well-being. At the same time, Australians see the nation as increasingly polarised.



    Read more:
    Inquiry warns distrustful public wouldn’t accept COVID measures in future pandemic

    The presidential election this week will decide much about the future of the United States as a polarised and divided nation. In Australia, the lessons and recommendations from the COVID report provide an opportunity to avert the choices facing the United States.

    Lesley Russell has worked as a policy advisor for the Democrats in the US House of Representatives, for the Obama Administration and for the Australian Labor Party in the Australian Parliament.

    – ref. In the US, political division can take a significant toll on people’s health. Australia should pay attention – https://theconversation.com/in-the-us-political-division-can-take-a-significant-toll-on-peoples-health-australia-should-pay-attention-242381

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How are racehorses really treated in the ‘sport of kings’?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cathrynne Henshall, Post-doctoral Fellow, School of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University

    It’s the time of year when shiny horses and colourful clothing fill our screens – the Spring Racing Carnival, which includes high profile races like The Everest, Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate.

    It’s also the time of year when questions are asked about the welfare of racehorses that compete in the so-called “sport of kings”.

    Previously, high profile deaths during races, the use of whips and what happens to horses after racing have been the focus of community concern.



    Read more:
    Black Caviar’s death has prompted uncomfortable questions about how champion mares spend their retirement

    But recently, as we’ve come to know more about what makes a good life for a horse, questions are being raised about the daily lives of racehorses.

    Industry participants will point to the high level care that racehorses receive – comfortable stables, specially formulated diets, the latest vet treatments and added extras such as massages and swimming sessions.

    But does this care translate into good welfare?

    The theory of ‘telos’

    Firstly, a quick primer on the difference between care and welfare.

    Care includes all the things that make sure racehorses get fit, stay fit and stay healthy. This care helps maximise the chance a horse will win races.

    Welfare is the animal’s subjective or individual experience of its life – how it feels – and there are a number of ways to assess this.

    One way is the concept of “telos”, originally developed by Ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle.

    Telos is a species’ anatomical, physiological, behavioural and cognitive characteristics that have been shaped by millions of years of evolution.

    Telos helps us to identify what matters to animals – their behavioural, psychological and physiological needs.

    So to consider if racehorse care actually translates to good welfare, we can assess how closely it provides the animal with the things that matter to them, based on their telos.

    Equine telos involves living in groups, forming long-lived social relationships, grazing fibrous plants and being on the move for up to 18 hours a day, as well as staying safe by sensing danger and then moving away.

    It also involves living in variable environments to solve challenges, learn, engage in curiosity and play.

    Let’s compare that to the daily life of a racehorse.

    Movement and feeding

    Firstly, the vast majority of racehorses live in stables – sometimes up to 23 hours a day.

    Multiple studies have found continuous stabling harms horse welfare.

    Stables significantly restrict opportunities for voluntary movement, and studies show stabled horses spend the majority of the time inactive.

    Even though stables house horses communally, most designs limit horses’ opportunities for social interaction.

    Thirdly, there’s little for a horse to do in a stable other than eat, stand, drink or lie, and they often develop abnormal behaviours that are associated with stress. These are never seen in free-ranging horses.

    When racehorses do get to move, they have little say over how far, how fast and for how long they move.

    The kinds of physical exercise racehorses do are both significantly shorter in duration and at much higher speeds than horses voluntarily choose. It’s those speeds that place them at risk of suffering a serious injury.

    What about diet?

    Although a lot of time and effort is spent ensuring racehorses enjoy high quality diets, they are mostly comprised of concentrated energy sources such as grains, rather the fibre horses evolved to eat.

    Horses are trickle feeders (grazers), with small stomachs that continuously secrete digestive juices.

    In the wild, grazing keeps those stomachs full, which prevents the stomach lining from being damaged by digestive acids.

    In comparison, racehorses often consume their food very quickly – instead of spending up to 75% of their day eating, they spend only 33%.

    This means their stomachs are empty for most of the day, which is why up to 65% will get painful gastric ulcers.

    And having to wait to be fed rather than eating when hungry, as happens in free-ranging horses, can lead to frustration.

    Other difficulties

    Racehorses may be whipped, and more than 50% will experience some form of musculoskeletal injury during racing, of which between 7-49% are fatal.

    Social relationships, in the limited form possible in a racing stable, are also frequently disrupted because horse populations are highly transient due to spelling, retirement or even just going to the races.

    So even if two horses are able to form a relationship of sorts, chances are one will be taken away. Separation distress is a significant stressor for horses.

    Then there’s the gear that’s used to control them.

    Horses, like most animal species, escape and avoid painful stimuli.

    However, in racing (and many other equestrian activties) it is mandatory to use “bits” to control horses’ behaviour during riding and handling. Bits work by causing uncomfortable pressure and pain and may lead to mouth injuries.

    Studies have shown many people don’t understand how to minimise the harm they can cause. In addition, people also vary widely in their ability to read and interpret behavioural responses to stress.

    So, racehorses may be repeatedly exposed to pain from bits and perform a range of behaviours to try to escape that pain, like bolting, mouth opening or head tossing.

    To remedy this, additional items of restrictive equipment, such as tongue ties, nosebands, lugging bits or bit burs may be used to control the horse.

    Racehorses frequently show signs of difficulty coping with the stressors of racing life, including “going off their feed”, aggression towards handlers, becoming hard to control when ridden and a range of stress behaviours and health issues, such as bleeding from the lungs.

    What about welfare?

    Racehorse care is often directed towards managing issues that are the direct result of the demands of the racing environment.

    Fancy stables and aqua sessions are not important to horses, and may even cause harm.

    What matters to horses are opportunities to make meaningful choices, such as the freedom to move, form friendships and graze for the majority of the day.

    Current racing industry practices often deny horses the chance to make these choices.

    There’s no doubt people in racing care deeply about their horses. But to experience good welfare during racing, racehorses need more than just good care.

    Cathrynne Henshall receives funding from the Hong Kong Jockey Club Welfare Foundation

    – ref. How are racehorses really treated in the ‘sport of kings’? – https://theconversation.com/how-are-racehorses-really-treated-in-the-sport-of-kings-240998

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why do organisations still struggle to protect our data? We asked 50 professionals on the privacy front line

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Andrew, Professor, Head of the Discipline of Accounting, Governance and Regulation, University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney

    PabloLagarto/Shutterstock

    More of our personal data is now collected and stored online than ever before in history. The rise of data breaches should unsettle us all.

    At an individual level, data breaches can compromise our privacy, cause harm to our finances and mental health, and even enable identity theft.

    For organisations, the repercussions can be equally severe, often resulting in major financial losses and brand damage.

    Despite the increasing importance of protecting our personal information, doing so remains fraught with challenges.

    As part of a comprehensive study of data breach notification practices, we interviewed 50 senior personnel working in information security and privacy. Here’s what they told us about the multifaceted challenges they face.



    Read more:
    The Australian government has introduced new cyber security laws. Here’s what you need to know

    What does the law actually say?

    Data breaches occur whenever personal information is accessed or disclosed without authorisation, or even lost altogether. Optus, Medibank and Canva have all experienced high-profile incidents in recent years.

    Under Australia’s privacy laws, organisations aren’t allowed to sweep major cyber attacks under the rug.

    They have to notify both the regulator – the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC) – and any affected individuals of breaches that are likely to result in “serious harm”.

    But according to the organisational leaders we interviewed, this poses a tricky question. How do you define serious harm?

    Interpretations of what “serious harm” actually means – and how likely it is to occur – vary significantly. This inconsistency can make it impossible to predict the specific impact of a data breach on an individual.

    Victims of domestic violence, for example, may be at increased risk when personal information is exposed, creating harms that are difficult to foresee or mitigate.

    Enforcing the rules

    Interviewees also had concerns about how well the regulator could provide guidance and enforce data protection measures.

    Many expressed a belief the OAIC is underfunded and lacks the authority to impose and enforce fines properly. The consensus was that the challenge of protecting our data has now outgrown the power and resources of the regulator.

    As one chief information security officer at a publicly listed company put it:

    What’s the point of having speeding signs and cameras if you don’t give anyone a ticket?

    A lack of enforcement can undermine the incentive for organisations to invest in robust data protection.

    Only the tip of the iceberg

    Data breaches are also underreported, particularly in the corporate sector.

    One senior cybersecurity consultant from a major multinational company told us there is a strong incentive for companies to minimise or cover up breaches, to avoid embarrassment.

    This culture means many breaches that should be reported simply aren’t. One senior public servant estimated only about 10% of reportable breaches end up actually being disclosed.

    Without this basic transparency, the regulator and affected individuals can’t take necessary steps to protect themselves.

    Affected individuals can’t take steps to protect themselves if breaches aren’t reported.
    Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Third-party breaches

    Sometimes, when we give our personal information to one organisation, it can end up in the hands of another one we might not expect. This is because key tasks – especially managing databases – are often outsourced to third parties.

    Outsourcing tasks might be a more efficient option for an organisation, but it can make protecting personal data even more complicated.

    Interviewees told us breaches were more likely when engaging third-party providers, because it limited the control they had over security measures.

    Between July and December 2023 in Australia, there was an increase of more than 300% in third-party data breaches compared to the six months prior.

    There have been some highly publicised examples.

    In May this year, many Clubs NSW customers had their personal information potentially breached through an attack on third-party software provider Outabox.

    Bunnings suffered a similar breach in late 2021, via an attack on scheduling software provider FlexBooker.

    Getting the basics right

    Some organisations are still struggling with the basics. Our research found many data breaches occur because outdated or “legacy” data systems are still in use.

    These systems are old or inactive databases, often containing huge amounts of personal information about all the individuals who’ve previously interacted with them.

    Organisations tend to hold onto personal data longer than is legally required. This can come down to confusion about data-retention requirements, but also the high cost and complexity of safely decommissioning old systems.

    One chief privacy officer of a large financial services institution told us:

    In an organisation like ours where we have over 2,000 legacy systems […] the systems don’t speak to each other. They don’t come with big red delete buttons.

    Other interviewees flagged that risky data testing practices are widespread.

    Software developers and tech teams often use “production data” – real customer data – to test new products. This is often quicker and cheaper than creating test datasets.

    However, this practice exposes real customer information to insecure testing environments, making it more vulnerable. A senior cybersecurity specialist told us:

    I’ve seen it so much in every industry […] It’s literally live, real information going into systems that are not live and real and have low security.

    What needs to be done?

    Drawing insights from professionals at the coalface, our study highlights just how complex data protection has become in Australia, and how quickly the landscape is evolving.

    Addressing these issues will require a multi-pronged approach, including clearer legislative guidelines, better enforcement, greater transparency and robust security practices for the use of third-party providers.

    As the digital world continues to evolve, so too must our strategies for protecting ourselves and our data.

    Jane Andrew receives funding from The Australian Research Council – Discovery Project.

    Dr Penelope Bowyer-Pont receives funding from the Australian Research Council – Discovery Project.

    Max Baker receives funding from The Australian Research Council – Discovery Project.

    – ref. Why do organisations still struggle to protect our data? We asked 50 professionals on the privacy front line – https://theconversation.com/why-do-organisations-still-struggle-to-protect-our-data-we-asked-50-professionals-on-the-privacy-front-line-236681

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: An Indigenous person is 4 times more likely to die from diabetes. We need to better understand how exercise can help

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ray Kelly, PhD candidate, School of Medicine, The University of Melbourne

    Attila Csaszar/Getty

    It’s estimated almost 1.9 million Australians have diabetes, and numbers are growing. Between 2013 and 2023, the total number of people known to be living with diabetes across the country rose by 32%.

    As is the case for a range of health conditions, diabetes disproportionately affects Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

    Indigenous Australians are three times more likely to be diagnosed with diabetes than non-Indigenous Australians. They are 4.4 times more likely to die from it.

    Among other factors, physical activity plays an important role in the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes. But our new study, published in the Medical Journal of Australia, shows we don’t know enough about the role of physical activity in preventing and managing type 2 diabetes in First Nations people.

    What is diabetes?

    Diabetes is a condition where there’s too much glucose (sugar) in the blood. There are different types, but the most common is type 2 diabetes. In people with type 2 diabetes, the body becomes resistant to the effects of insulin, a hormone which regulates blood sugar levels.

    Risk factors for type 2 diabetes include having a family history of diabetes, being overweight, and having high blood pressure.

    The high rates of diabetes in Indigenous communities are to a large extent influenced by the social determinants of health. For example, we know food insecurity disproportionately affects Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, especially in rural and remote communities. This can make it difficult to follow a healthy diet, which in turn affects overall health.

    People in remote Indigenous communities also often have poorer access to educational and employment opportunities, suitable housing, and high-quality health care. All these factors can contribute to poorer health.

    First Nations communities have particularly high rates of younger onset type 2 diabetes (usually defined as a diagnosis before age 40).

    If diabetes is not effectively managed, it can lead to a range of complications, including long-term damage to the heart, kidneys, eyes and feet. Diabetes can affect all aspects of a person’s life, including their mental health.

    People with diabetes need to monitor their blood sugar levels.
    Krakenimages.com/Shutterstock

    Lifestyle interventions (diet and physical activity) are generally recommended as part of a treatment plan for type 2 diabetes.

    We wanted to understand how physical activity interventions in particular can help Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with diabetes.

    Our research

    As well as playing a role in diabetes prevention, there’s good evidence exercise is beneficial for people already diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

    Physical activity has been associated with lower levels of glycated haemoglobin in the blood (an index of glucose control), reduced blood lipids such as cholesterol, and weight loss. Evidence suggests a combination of aerobic and resistance exercise may be superior to either mode alone.

    We reviewed studies that looked at the effects of physical activity interventions and programs in type 2 diabetes prevention and management for First Nations Australians.

    We found only nine studies that investigated physical activity interventions for preventing or managing type 2 diabetes in Indigenous adults.

    There was some evidence linking physical activity to better outcomes in Indigenous Australians with type 2 diabetes. However, the value of the findings was affected by shortcomings in study design and a lack of involvement of Indigenous people in designing and carrying out the research.

    Exercise is important in preventing and managing type 2 diabetes.
    sutadimages/Shutterstock

    A gap in high-quality evidence

    There are many aspects of diabetes prevention and management that tend to be more difficult for people in First Nations communities, particularly those that are rural or remote.

    Also, new technologies that can help with diabetes management, such as continuous glucose monitors, are often very expensive.

    It’s crucial Indigenous Australians with diabetes have access to appropriate diabetes support, education and services.

    Notably, health, cultural and socioeconomic disparities can impact participation in physical activity. What constitutes realistic opportunities to exercise can differ for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people compared to other Australians.

    Previous data has shown Indigenous Australians are less likely to meet physical activity recommendations than non-Indigenous Australians.

    Factors that might influence the uptake of physical activity among First Nations people include access to safe, accessible, family-friendly and inexpensive locations to do exercise. These can be limited in regional and remote communities.



    Read more:
    How a culturally informed model of care helped First Nations patients with heart disease

    Overall, we found a lack of reliable data on whether exercise, and what type of exercise, might benefit Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with type 2 diabetes.

    Given physical activity is a cornerstone in the management of type 2 diabetes, we need more rigorous research in this area. These studies must be well designed and culturally appropriate. They must involve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people at all levels of the research process.

    Targeted research will help us determine the best approaches to increase physical activity, and understand its benefits, for Indigenous people with type 2 diabetes.

    Ray Kelly is a Director at Ray Kelly Fitness Pty Ltd, which provides lifestyle programs in partnership with Aboriginal medical services. He has received funding from Primary Health Networks, the NSW Ministry of Health, and directly from Aboriginal medical services. Ray has also received MRFF funding for his research.

    Margaret Morris receives research funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. An Indigenous person is 4 times more likely to die from diabetes. We need to better understand how exercise can help – https://theconversation.com/an-indigenous-person-is-4-times-more-likely-to-die-from-diabetes-we-need-to-better-understand-how-exercise-can-help-234154

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: US presidential election remains a toss-up, and a guide to US election day in Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below that includes when polls in the key states close and other information.

    In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.5–47.8, a gain for Trump since last Thursday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.5. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

    The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

    Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

    Trump leads by 0.4 points in both Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Nevada (six). He leads by over one point in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16), and by 2.6 points in Arizona (11). Harris leads by about one point in Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (ten).

    If the current polls are exactly right, Trump wins the Electoral College by 287–251. But either Harris or Trump could outperform their polls and win easily.

    In Silver’s model, Trump has a 53% chance to win the Electoral College, slightly down from 54% on Thursday. There’s a 28% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 53% win probability.

    Silver is aggregating state polls to produce a popular vote forecast, and this gives Harris a 50.4–48.4 popular vote margin, better for Harris than her 0.7-point lead in national polls.

    Silver said the US pollsters are “herding”, particularly in the key states. This means individual polls are not showing enough variation in their results. If the polls are wrong in these states, herding would be a cause.

    The highly rated Selzer poll had a shock result, giving Harris a three-point lead in Iowa (six electoral votes), a state Trump won by eight points in 2020. However, an Emerson Iowa poll gave Trump a nine-point lead. At least Selzer isn’t herding!

    If Harris loses, a big cause will be the unpopularity of Joe Biden. If Trump loses, I believe his biggest mistake will be agreeing to the June 27 debate with Biden. Biden’s woeful performance persuaded senior Democrats to pressure him into withdrawing.

    Early voting and economic data

    As at Friday, over 70 million Americans had voted early (44% of total 2020 turnout). Many states give data on their early vote, such as the gender composition or the party registration of voters in states that have registration by party. But Silver said on Thursday
    that analysts shouldn’t use early vote data as an alternative to the polls.

    Many people will vote on election day, so the composition of the current early vote may be a skewed representation of the final electorate. Also, we don’t know who early voters voted for. Even in states with party registration, people can register as Other, and Other voters make up a large share of the vote.

    In economic data, US GDP increased 2.7% at an annualised rate in the September quarter (0.7% in quarter on quarter terms). GDP has increased modestly in every quarter since September 2022. In September, the personal savings rate dropped 0.2% since August to 4.6%.

    Just 12,000 jobs were added in October. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged from September at 4.1%, the employment population ratio (the share of eligible Americans employed) dropped 0.2% to 60.0%. The survey fieldwork may have been affected by Hurricane Milton.

    The Silver economic index is at +0.19, indicating an economy just above average. The economy is a key reason why Trump could win.

    Election day guide for Wednesday AEDT

    All times in this section are Wednesday AEDT. US media will often call uncompetitive states for a candidate once all polls in that state are closed, without any votes being counted. Some states are split across time zones, and in this case the part in the western time zone will close an hour after the eastern zone part.

    Early and postal votes are expected to lean to Harris, while election day votes are expected to lean to Trump. So if the early vote is counted first, the state is likely to appear better for Harris than the final result, and the reverse if the election day vote is counted first.

    The Green Papers has a complete list of poll closing times and FiveThirtyEight has details on how each state counts its votes. I will concentrate on the seven key states.

    At 10am, the first polls close in the eastern time zones of Kentucky and Indiana. These states are both expected to be Trump blowout wins.

    At 11am, polls close in Georgia. Early votes will be reported by 12pm, followed by the election day vote. Initial results will probably skew to Harris.

    At 11:30am, polls close in North Carolina. The early vote will be counted first, so the initial results are likely to be relatively good for Harris.

    At 12pm, polls close in Pennsylvania and the large majority of Michigan. Pennsylvania will count their election day votes first, which should be relatively good for Trump. Michigan will count its postal votes with election day votes.

    At 1pm, polls close in Wisconsin, Arizona and the remaining small part of Michigan. In Wisconsin, election day votes will be counted first, with postals not released until late. An hour after polls close, Arizona will release its early vote, which should be relatively good for Harris. Counting of election day votes will continue until the evening AEDT, with more counting in the following days.

    At 2pm, polls close in Nevada. The early vote will be counted first. Results can’t be reported until all voters in line have voted, which will probably be hours after the official close of polls. There will also be late postals to count.

    At 3pm, polls close in the Pacific states of California (54 electoral votes), Washington (12) and Oregon (eight), all expected to be easy wins for Harris. If Harris is doing unexpectedly well in the key states, these three may put her over the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

    At 5pm, the final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone.

    We may know who has won the Electoral College and therefore the presidency by Wednesday afternoon, but counting will continue until well into that evening AEDT. If it’s close, it may take a few more days to resolve the Electoral College.

    Some states, including the populous Democratic strongholds of California and New York, take weeks to count all their votes. So it won’t be until early December that we know the national popular vote totals.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US presidential election remains a toss-up, and a guide to US election day in Australia – https://theconversation.com/us-presidential-election-remains-a-toss-up-and-a-guide-to-us-election-day-in-australia-242697

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Woman of the Hour: Anna Kendrick’s unflinching directorial debut reframes true crime for a post-#MeToo era

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Cantrell, Senior Lecturer — Writing, Editing, Publishing, University of Southern Queensland

    At first glance, Netflix’s Woman of the Hour is yet another true crime fictionalisation that plays to our preoccupation with American serial killers of decades past.

    Directed by Anna Kendrick, who also plays the female protagonist Sheryl Bradshaw, the film reconstructs the crimes of serial rapist and murderer Rodney Alcala, aka the “dating game killer”. Alcala famously appeared on (and won) a television matchmaking show in 1978 amid a years-long killing spree.

    The film examines historical sexual violence at both the individual and institutional level. It exposes the intense physical and psychological cruelty Alcala inflicted on his victims, as well as the cruelty and misogyny of the patriarchal culture that enabled such behaviour.

    Woman of the Hour is a groundbreaking text: it’s the first feminist true crime film to achieve commercial success since the #MeToo movement gained momentum in 2017.

    Rodney Alcala reportedly killed up to 130 people, including men, women and children.
    Netflix

    Seeing and being seen

    Woman of the Hour inverts the sadistic and voyeuristic “male gaze” of traditional true crime by obliging viewers to identify with the female victim rather than the male perpetrator.

    As film theorist and gender studies expert Sarah Projanksy observed in her influential book Watching Rape:

    Depictions of sexual violence in most horror and crime thrillers run the risk of extending and reproducing eroticised violence against women, even when victims fight back.

    But Kendrick’s directorial debut doesn’t romanticise Alcala or glorify his crimes. There are no cowering or moaning victims shown in various stages of undress.

    Instead we see, through careful framing and close-up shots, the panicked discomfort of Alcala’s victims as they navigate the dangers of dating, the damaging effects of casual misogyny and the ever-present threat of male fragility.

    As Margaret Atwood once said, men are afraid women will laugh at them, while women are afraid men will kill them.

    ‘No matter what words they use,’ a make-up artist tells Sheryl, ‘the question beneath the question remains the same […] which one of you will hurt me?’
    Netflix

    “Did you feel seen?” Alcala asks Sheryl, after the aspiring actress appears with Alcala on The Dating Game in an attempt to be “seen”.

    “I felt looked at,” Sheryl responds.

    The tense interactions between predator and prey build an almost unbearable suspense for viewers, who have already seen through Alcala’s superficial charisma and charm.

    Alcala was an amateur photographer who often exploited his victims’ desire to be understood and “seen”, and would lure them under the pretence of taking their photo.

    The film’s unsettling dialogue and intelligent use of visual metaphor frames women as objects to be looked at, but with a twist: the female characters are aware they’re being tracked and entrapped (even if the realisation comes too late).

    In subtle but devastating ways, Kendrick presents the horrific rape and torture committed by Alcala from the viewpoint of the victim. The camerawork underscores the victims’ feelings of shock and disorientation, but never in a voyeuristic or gratuitous way.

    Rodney Alcala died of natural causes in 2021, aged 77. He was on death row at the time.
    Netflix

    A game of murder and romance

    Woman of The Hour implicitly suggests part of Alcala’s perverted pleasure in killing came from his gamification of this process.

    In the film, Alcala strangles and then revives his victims, sometimes several times, before resubjecting them to the horror of his violence and the knowledge of their own death. His appearance on The Dating Game is the ultimate power move in his game of murder and romance.

    “I always get the girl,” Alcala smirks at a fellow contestant.

    His challenge extends not only to Sheryl, the blind date on the other side of the screen, but to the entire studio audience and the viewers at home.

    However, the film makes clear that romance was never Alcala’s goal. Instead, he leverages the game of romance to exploit his victims’ vulnerability and trust. In this respect, the game is rigged in his favour.

    When a woman in the audience recognises Alcala as the man who raped and killed her friend years prior, she attempts to report her concerns to the show’s producers, only to be fobbed off by a security guard. In another act of cruel male deception, the guard tells her to wait for a “senior executive” who he knows is actually the night janitor.

    Women, it seems, are simply pawns in the patriarchal game of 1970s America – an era when women’s testimonies of sexual abuse and harassment were distrusted and their safety routinely overlooked.

    Woman of The Hour lays bare the systemic failings that let Alcala get away with his crimes for so long.
    Netflix

    Alcala after #MeToo

    The women who survive Alcala’s violence in Woman of The Hour are those who perceive the artifice of his romance script, before inverting that script and presenting it, equally convincingly, back to him.

    When teenage runaway Amy wakes in the remote desert after Alcala has brutally raped and assaulted her, she outwits him by coyly asking him to keep what has happened a secret.

    By luring Alcala into a false sense of security, Amy convinces him to spare her. When Alcala pulls into a gas station, she flees to a nearby diner and alerts the police, who arrive and arrest him.

    Kendrick is careful to not adopt the voyeristic male gaze that is so common in the true crime genre.
    Netflix

    In the end, Kendrick’s message is explicit: “There’s no happy ending with a story like this.”

    This post-#MeToo take on Alcala’s violent crimes is a commentary on the systemic misogyny – including the failings of the police and judicial systems – that allowed a serial killer who went on national television to evade detection.

    Kendrick, the woman of the hour, refuses to look away.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Woman of the Hour: Anna Kendrick’s unflinching directorial debut reframes true crime for a post-#MeToo era – https://theconversation.com/woman-of-the-hour-anna-kendricks-unflinching-directorial-debut-reframes-true-crime-for-a-post-metoo-era-242302

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Will it be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Here’s what each needs to win the US election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruce Wolpe, Non-resident Senior Fellow, United States Study Centre, University of Sydney

    On election eve in the United States, the presidential race is deadlocked. The polls are exceptionally close across the country and in all the swing states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the industrial midwest; Nevada and Arizona in the west; and Georgia and North Carolina in the south.

    The final New York Times/Siena poll shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading by a very small margin or tied with Republican former President Donald Trump in all the swing states. The exception is Arizona, where Trump leads by a few percentage points.

    While there is no clear favourite to win, there are several critical factors that will driving voters’ decisions on Election Day. This is what to watch.



    Read more:
    Politics with Michelle Grattan: Bruce Wolpe says personal relations between Trump and Albanese would be ‘rocky’

    Republicans turning against Trump

    Trump’s favourability is stuck around 43% in nationwide polling. In the past two presidential elections, he fell short of taking 50% of the national popular vote. As president, he never achieved over 50% favourability. And he has never topped 50% since leaving office.

    This means he has hit a ceiling in his support and is highly unlikely to win the national popular vote on Tuesday.

    This also reflects what happened to Trump in the Republican primaries to win the nomination. He dominated the field, defeating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and several others. But in most of those primaries, 15-20% of Republican voters did not vote for Trump.

    Where will these Republican voters ultimately land on Tuesday? Probably half want to vote Republican and will go with Trump. Others will not being able to bring themselves to vote for Harris and will simply not vote for president.

    Others will switch their support to Harris. Indeed, there has never been such a swelling of support from members of one party to support the other party’s presidential candidate.

    Harris needs those “Republicans for Harris” votes. In addition, she’ll need to replicate the coalition of young voters, voters of colour and women who backed current President Joe Biden against Trump in 2020 in those same swing states and nationally.

    Her favourability ratings are higher than Trump, at around 46%. The closer a presidential candidate is to 50% approval ratings, the better their chance of winning the election.

    It’s the economy, stupid

    At the same time, the country is in a bad mood. There is a classic polling question asked at elections: is the country on the right track, or moving in the wrong direction? Between 60–70% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.

    That is a signal this election is about change. Historically, that sentiment has not favoured the incumbent in the White House. As Biden’s vice president, Harris is directly facing this headwind.

    There are four key issues in this election. The most important is the hip pocket issue: household budgets, cost of living pressures and voters’ concerns about their future economic security.

    Since Biden and Harris took office nearly four years ago, the cost of groceries, household items, utilities and services such as insurance have risen between 10–40%. Petrol prices have gone up even more.

    Though interest rates have fallen, American households are hurting. When asked who is best to manage the economy, voters in swing states say Trump by a 15-point margin.

    The next-biggest issue is immigration. Since Trump first became a presidential candidate in 2015, he has relentlessly pushed the immigration button, declaring the border with Mexico is out of control, with crime and pillage rising in its wake.

    The first three years of Biden’s term were also marked by big surges of immigrants crossing the border, though rates have fallen dramatically in 2024.

    Voters view Trump as best placed to manage this issue, too, by nearly 15 points.

    So, Trump is seen as a more effective leader on the two most important policy issues in this election.

    A surge in support from women

    Abortion rights and reproductive health services are the third major issue. Many women across America are repelled by the Supreme Court’s decision to take away their long-held constitutional right to an abortion. Now, this policy is decided at the state level. And several conservative Republican states – including Ohio and Kansas – have voted to restore abortion rights.

    Harris is seen as the champion of these issues. Multiple polls show voters trust her more than Trump on reproductive rights, by wide margins.

    As a result, polling shows Harris is leading Trump with women voters in the swing states, by 15 points or more.

    Abortion rights are also on the ballot in two swing states, Nevada and Arizona, which should help Harris in both.

    The future of American democracy is the fourth major issue facing voters. According to a new poll, half the country sees Trump as a profound threat to America’s democracy who will wield authoritarian power to enforce his policies and programs.

    Harris has pledged to turn the page, heal divisions and get Republicans and Democrats working together again.

    In these closing days, Trump continues to make provocative statements with violent imagery. At a rally in Arizona last week, for instance, he again attacked Liz Cheney, the former Republican congresswoman who advocated for the prosecution of Trump over the January 6 insurrection:

    She’s a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.

    This may have provided Harris with a final cut-through moment on Trump’s fitness for office in the final days of the campaign. She said in response:

    Anyone who wants to be president of the United States who uses that kind of violent rhetoric is clearly disqualified and unqualified to be president. […] Trump is increasingly, however, someone who considers his political opponents the enemy, is permanently out for revenge and is increasingly unstable and unhinged.

    So, who is going to win?

    Trump’s team sees victory in all the polls. His chief pollster wrote late last week:

    President Trump’s position nationally and in every single battleground state is significantly better than it was four years ago.

    The polls may also be undercounting the full measure of Trump’s support, as was the case in 2016 and 2020. And the polls may not be reflecting the extent of antipathy towards Harris as a Black and south Asian woman.

    Jen O’Malley Dillon, Harris’ campaign director, and who headed the 2020 Biden campaign that defeated Trump, has told her troops, meanwhile, that undecided voters are “gettable”, adding:

    We have multiple pathways to victory […] Our folks are voting at levels we need them to vote in order for us to win.

    Harris has built a US$1 billion (A$1.5 billion) machine designed to reach voters in the swing states – through personal contact. This machine made three million phone calls and door knocks on homes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin alone on Saturday. If this machine delivers, it could be the boost Harris needs on election night.

    Harris’ campaign also signalled over the weekend that late-deciding voters, and especially women, are breaking their way by double digits. There is a sense among Democrats that Harris is now peaking as the campaign concludes.

    The final analysis

    If Harris wins, it will be because she has successfully sealed the deal with those voters and made the election a referendum on Trump – that on balance the country has had enough of him after eight years. It also means her ground game delivered the votes.

    If Trump wins, it will mean voters trusted him to manage inflation and the cost-of-living squeeze on households, as well as what they see as out-of-control immigration and crime. These messages would also have been further embellished by unease about Harris, a Black and south Asian woman, as president.

    Bruce Wolpe receives funding from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He also worked on the Democratic staff of the US House of Representatives, most recently during President Barack Obama’s first term.

    – ref. Will it be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Here’s what each needs to win the US election – https://theconversation.com/will-it-be-kamala-harris-or-donald-trump-heres-what-each-needs-to-win-the-us-election-242756

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Dams have taken half the water from Australia’s second biggest river – and climate change will make it even worse

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jan Kreibich, PhD Candidate, Centre for Ecosystem Science & Water Research Laboratory, UNSW Sydney

    Annette Ruzicka

    The largest wetland on Australia’s second longest river, the Murrumbidgee in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, is drying up. This is bad news for the plants, animals and people who rely on the vast Lowbidgee Floodplain. So it’s important to understand what is going on, and whether we can do anything about it.

    Our new research used computer modelling to study past and future river flows. We examined natural flows in the lower Murrumbidgee River between 1890 and 1927, before humans started changing the river. We compared these flows to what happened after big dams went in and more water was taken out for irrigation. Then, we modelled how climate change is likely to influence flows in future.

    We found river regulation such as dams and reservoirs cut flows in half over the past three decades. It means periods between life-giving floods on the wetlands are now more than twice as long. With climate change, drying of these vital freshwater ecosystems is likely to accelerate.

    Altogether, we predict the annual duration of flood events sustaining these wetlands will drop by as much as 85% by 2075 compared to natural levels, if nothing is done. But there are plenty of things we can do to turn this around, because our research shows the main reason for the decline is river regulation and overextraction.

    A colony of Australian pelicans gathered on the Lowbidgee Floodplain.
    Annette Ruzicka

    Floods are essential for wetlands

    The Lowbidgee Floodplain, in southwestern New South Wales, supports expansive river red gum and black box forests as well as one of the state’s largest lignum shrublands. Lignum’s thick mass of stems forms bushes that make great nesting platforms for waterbirds, attracting thousands of glossy ibis, straw-necked ibis and royal spoonbills. The area is also a breeding ground for Australian pelicans.

    The endangered Southern bell frog and threatened native fish such as Murray cod also live here.

    Floods bring wetlands to life. But human activities have disrupted the natural cycle of flood and drought. In the Murrumbidgee, 26 big dams and reservoirs now store and divert water, mainly for irrigation. These interventions have more than doubled the time between floods, causing large sections of the wetlands to dry up.

    The lack of floods has devastated the floodplain, causing black box and river red gum forests to die. Waterbird numbers also plummeted.

    A clip from the aerial waterbird survey of Pollen Creek on the Lowbidgee (Centre for Ecosystem Science)

    The Lowbidgee’s cultural significance

    The Nari Nari people have lived on the Lowbidgee Floodplain for tens of thousands of years. The land and water has deep cultural and spiritual value.

    Evidence of Nari Nari connection to this place is seen in the scar trees cut for canoes and other wooden items, middens of discarded shell and bone, earth mounds and burial sites scattered across the landscape.

    After 180 years of dispossession, 880 square kilometres of the floodplain was returned to the Nari Nari Tribal Council in 2019. This allows the original peoples of this land to repair it, reinstating cultural burning for example. But there’s a limit to how much they can do without more water.

    Nari Nari Elders Kerrie Parker (left) and Mabel Fitzpatrick (right) in the Gayini Wetlands of the Lowbidgee Floodplain.
    Annette Ruzicka

    River regulation and climate change

    Few studies have effectively reconstructed such a long history of a river to see where we have come from, and just as importantly, assessed what lies ahead.

    We modelled natural flows in the Murrumbidgee River, using data for rainfall and runoff upstream. The rainfall data covers more than a century, from 1890 to 2018, which allowed us to model natural flows back to 1890.

    First we established a baseline for natural flows. Then we were able to work out how dams, reservoirs and and water diversions have disrupted these flows over time.

    We also considered how climate change might influence river flows in the future under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

    We found most of the decline (55%) in the Murrumbidgee River’s flows was due to river regulation. But climate change will probably make matters worse, shaving another 7–10% off river flows by 2075, based on average projections.

    The average annual duration of floods reaching the floodplain wetlands has dropped from 11.3 days under natural flows to just 4.5 days currently. This could decline further to around 1.7 days as the climate becomes warmer and drier.

    An aerial view of the Gayini Wetlands.
    Annette Ruzicka

    Now is the time to act

    Australia’s rivers are at risk, but it’s not too late to act. By reducing over-allocation and returning water to the environment we can protect threatened and endangered species, reduce the impacts of climate change, and honour the cultural heritage of First Nations Peoples.

    Managing water releases to mimic natural seasonal flows can also help reinstate the natural cues for native plants, animals and other organisms.

    Our research underscores the urgent need to understand our past in order to explore future water management options. It’s clear much of the damage has been done by damming the river and taking out so much water. Now it’s important to restore the balance in favour of the environment, to prepare for future climate change.

    The Murrumbidgee River and its major floodplain wetlands are also a warning – a canary in the coal mine so to speak – of what could happen to other river systems worldwide as water demand rises along with projected income and population growth. This is especially concerning for many arid and semi-arid regions, where climate change is increasing temperatures while reducing rainfall.

    We wish to acknowledge the contribution of Nari Nari Tribal man and General Manager of Gayini wetlands, Jamie Woods, to this article and the research paper it was based on.

    Jan Kreibich’s work was supported by the University of New South Wales and the Australian Research Council.

    Richard Kingsford receives funding from a range of government and non-government organisations, including the Australian Research Council, the New South Wales, Victorian, South Australian and Queensland Governments and the Australian Government. He is councillor of the Biodiversity Council and a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.

    – ref. Dams have taken half the water from Australia’s second biggest river – and climate change will make it even worse – https://theconversation.com/dams-have-taken-half-the-water-from-australias-second-biggest-river-and-climate-change-will-make-it-even-worse-242192

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia is axing a $7bn military satellite project, leaving defence comms potentially vulnerable

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics & CyberSecurity, Griffith University

    In a significant blow to Australia’s defence capabilities, the federal government is cancelling what would have been the nation’s largest-ever space project: a A$7 billion military satellite communications system.

    The decision was confirmed in a press statement today. It comes just 18 months after the Albanese government gave the green light to the ambitious program.

    Defence industry sources quoted by The Australian newspaper indicated that insufficient funding was allocated to start the program, despite its strategic importance. According to the ABC, “defence industry figures believe there are cheaper options available”.

    The project’s cancellation would mark a dramatic reversal for a program that was meant to make Australia’s military communications safer at a time when the cyber threat landscape has been steadily evolving.

    The rise and fall of JP9102

    The ambitious satellite program is known as JP9102. It was awarded to US defence contractor Lockheed Martin in April 2023 after a competitive tender process that included major players like Airbus, Northrop Grumman and Optus.

    The project aimed to launch several large military-grade satellites. It would also involve several ground stations, new satellite communications operations centres, and a central management system. Taken together, this would create a secure communications network for Australia’s military.

    Currently, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) uses a complex network of up to 89 different “capabilities” (military assets) that rely on satellite communications.

    This existing system lacks the comprehensive security and coverage that JP9102 promised to deliver. Without it, Australia’s military communications are potentially left vulnerable to cyber and electronic warfare attacks.

    In its statement, the Department of Defence claims its “current satellite communications capabilities support the immediate needs of the organisation”.

    What can military satellites deliver?

    The proposed satellite system was intended to create what experts call an “uncrackable data network” across the ADF.

    These military-grade satellites would have provided secure communications for fighter jets, naval vessels and ground forces across the vast Indo-Pacific region.

    Unlike commercial satellites, military satellites incorporate advanced encryption and anti-jamming capabilities. This makes them significantly more resistant to cyber attack and electronic warfare.

    Military satellites face sophisticated cyber threats from both state and non-state actors.

    China and Russia are widely recognised as having advanced capabilities in this domain. They have the ability to jam satellite signals, intercept communications and potentially even take control of satellite systems. North Korea has also demonstrated growing capabilities in cyber warfare, particularly in signal jamming.

    In 2014, Russian forces reportedly jammed and disrupted satellite communications during their operations in Crimea. More recently, at the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, hackers disabled thousands of satellite modems that were part of the Viasat satellite network, causing disruptions to both military and civilian communications across Europe.

    In the commercial sector, Iran has been accused of jamming satellite broadcasts and GPS signals.

    This demonstrates how even nations with less advanced military capabilities can pose significant threats to satellite communications.

    JP9102 was considered a “bleeding-edge technology project”. It included plans for machine learning capabilities to increase agility and responsiveness.

    The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has previously praised the project’s potential for making room for future technological improvements:

    The JP9102 satellites may, if they are based on open-architecture design or software-based systems, take advantage of future on-orbit servicing technologies that could extend their operational life and enhance their capabilities over time.

    A budget reality

    The key takeaway here is the growing gap between Australia’s defence ambitions and its budget reality. As regional tensions continue to increase and cyber threats evolve, the decision to cancel JP9102 highlights the challenging trade-offs between needing to secure Australia’s military communications and the costs of doing so.

    It raises the question of how Australia will secure its military communications in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region. The cancellation of JP9102 creates a significant capability gap in Australia’s military communications strategy that will need to be addressed.

    Defence planners will likely need to explore alternative solutions. These might include partnerships with commercial satellite providers or joining the military satellite networks of allied nations, such as the United States.

    David Tuffley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australia is axing a $7bn military satellite project, leaving defence comms potentially vulnerable – https://theconversation.com/australia-is-axing-a-7bn-military-satellite-project-leaving-defence-comms-potentially-vulnerable-242761

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Apart from Chris Martin’s fall, here are 10 other examples of onstage accidents. Can we keep performers safe?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Analytics & Resilience, UNSW Sydney

    In recent months, Australian concertgoers have witnessed plenty of unexpected onstage drama.

    The latest example came from Coldplay’s sold-out Sunday show in Melbourne. Lead singer Chris Martin took a sudden plunge through a trapdoor, catching fans off guard, before reemerging with a laugh and reassuring wave.

    Just weeks prior, also in Melbourne, singer Olivia Rodrigo abruptly fell into an unexpected opening mid-performance.

    While such slips may seem like isolated moments of bad luck, they signal at one aspect of live shows that often goes unnoticed: performer safety.

    As stages become increasingly elaborate – with intricate set designs and high-tech moving parts – the line between awe-inspiring production and potential hazard grows thin.

    A thin line between spectacle and risk

    Performer safety mishaps aren’t isolated accidents. They are part of a recurring pattern in live music in both Australia and overseas, with falls and slips being one of the most common setbacks. For instance,

    Beyond losing one’s footing, audience aggression and inappropriate behaviour towards artists have also been on the rise in recent years:

    • in October, The Weeknd was grabbed by a Melbourne concertgoer who evaded security and rushed onto the stage and towards the artist, stunning him momentarily

    • last year, Bebe Rexha was struck in the face by a phone thrown from the audience during a concert in New York City. This resulted in a laceration that required stitches

    • Harry Styles was hit by various objects during his 2023 world tour. In one show in Los Angeles, a skittle struck his eye

    What’s behind this trend?

    From falls, to fans rushing onstage, to objects flying from the crowd, it’s clear artists are facing a unique set of safety challenges. These challenges are driven by two factors: audience behaviour and increasingly complex stage designs.

    While audience misbehaviour poses a significant risk, it seemed to have peaked post-pandemic. This may have reflected a collective frustration – or perhaps it was audiences failing to remember proper concert etiquette after spending so much time in lockdowns.

    Social media also arguably played a role, by turning disruptive actions into “viral moments” and potentially inspiring copycats. Fortunately, these incidents seem to be declining as live music crowds settle back into pre-pandemic norms.



    Read more:
    Chaotic scenes at Travis Scott’s Melbourne concert: what is the role of artists in crowd behaviour?

    Stage-related mishaps, however, appear to be on the opposite trajectory. As artists strive to create unforgettable experiences, they’re confronted with stages that are riskier than ever before.

    Delivering the “wow factor” has led to stages becoming multi-layered landscapes with high-tech trapdoors, platforms, dazzling lights and immersive visuals that may be difficult for the performer to navigate.

    This raises a significant but often overlooked element in safety discussions: the human factors. Even the most seasoned performers can only process so much sensory input at once. As stage productions grow more complex, the cognitive load on artists also intensifies.

    We’re seeing similar phenomenons in other high-stakes settings, such as with pilots who manage complex flight instruments, or drivers who must respond to multiple road cues. Mistakes happen when there’s too much information to process.

    Artists already spend much of their mental energy on trying to engage their audience, leaving fewer resources to safely navigate a maze of lighting rigs, trapdoors and moving platforms. In this context, stage mishaps aren’t accidents; they’re byproducts of an environment where human attention is stretched to its limits.

    As the demand for spectacle increases, so too does the risk of artists facing disorientation or injury.

    Why does it matter? And what should be done?

    Major artists are humans, too. Their safety is just as important as that of the audience – and is also an occupational safety matter.

    But even beyond artists’ wellbeing, the effects of an onstage mishap can be felt by the entire audience. An accident can pause or even cut a show short, leaving fans frustrated.

    While recent incidents have been limited to minor injuries or brief disruptions, these recurring patterns point to a growing issue that shoudn’t be ignored.

    It’s time to bring performer safety into the spotlight – and there are a few ways we can do this. For instance:

    • tour operators and production teams have a responsibility to conduct thorough safety audits to identify every possible risk element an artist may encounter on stage

    • venues should prioritise security and make sure major events are adequately staffed

    • fans should be reminded that a stage is a performer’s workplace – and not an interactive free-for-all.

    At the end of the day, ensuring a performer’s safety is a responsibility that falls on everyone, from the tour operator, to venue staff – and yes, even to the fans.

    Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Apart from Chris Martin’s fall, here are 10 other examples of onstage accidents. Can we keep performers safe? – https://theconversation.com/apart-from-chris-martins-fall-here-are-10-other-examples-of-onstage-accidents-can-we-keep-performers-safe-242757

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Authentically embracing tikanga Māori can help New Zealand in the growing Asian markets

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hafsa Ahmed, Senior lecturer, Department of Global Value Chains and Trade, Lincoln University, New Zealand

    The Asian markets have long been seen as a linchpin for New Zealand’s economic success. And the key to future growth could be the cultural similarities between Māori and communities across the Asian region.

    These shared values include mana (honour/prestige), manaakitanga (reciprocity/hospitality), karakia (prayer), whakapapa (genealogy) and veneration of kaumatua (elders).

    My ongoing research has found embracing the cultural values of tikanga Māori could give New Zealand an edge in these competitive Asian markets.

    Growth potential

    Asia was projected to drive 60% of global GDP growth in 2024, led by India and China.

    Seven of New Zealand’s top ten export destinations are in the Asian region. Exports to China alone amounted to NZ$20 billion last year. Exports to India amount to $520 million.

    Asia’s projected growth presents a unique opportunity for any country trying to increase its trade in the region. New Zealand holds a unique advantage when engaging with Asia which relates to cultural distance – the extent to which shared values and norms differ from nation to nation.

    Research has shown cultural distance is an important factor in international trade and management.

    Cultural distance is what sets a country’s culture apart, including differences in language, societal values and family structures. It’s not static, and there could be clusters within countries where diversity exists.

    European Australia, for example, is less distant to the European New Zealand than other countries due to shared colonial origins. But these British-based cultures are considered to have a greater distance from their own indigenous populations.

    Similarly, Asian countries can be considered as having a bigger cultural distance from Anglo-American cultures. Individualism, for example, is a core value of Western cultures, whereas collectivism is key in Asian cultures.

    Building connections

    My research has found there are certain shared values between Māori and Asian cultures that mean the cultural distance is less than it is with Anglo-American cultures.

    Similar to many Asian cultures, the Māori worldview is deeply rooted in the intricate relationships between humans, ancestors, and the natural world.

    This can be seen through whakapapa and mana, both intrinsically linked to one’s connection to the natural environment and human beings.

    This has similarities with spiritual practices in Asia, including Hinduism and Buddhism. The concept of bumitama in Balinese culture, for example, translates to “humanity-land-god”, reflecting a holistic view where humans are interconnected with nature and the divine.

    The Māori concept of manaakitanga – the principle of reciprocity, where an individual is recognised and respected for not just who they are but as a representative of everyone who has gone before – is an acknowledgement that individuals are all connected through their ancestors.



    Read more:
    Cultural differences impede trade for most countries — but not China

    Manaakitanga has parallels in many Asian cultures. For example, the ancient Sanskrit adage atithi devo bhava is the cornerstone of Indian hospitality.

    Kaumātua – an elder in Māori society – holds a position of immense significance. As the custodians of knowledge, tradition and spiritual wisdom, kaumātua is pivotal in guiding the community, particularly the youth.

    This approach of transmission of knowledge, values and cultural heritage from elders to younger generations is a core function of many Asian societies.

    New Zealand’s advantage

    This comparison simplifies complex cultural systems. It’s important to acknowledge that the nuances and complexities of each culture are vast and multifaceted.

    But examining shared similarities can help foster a deeper appreciation for the resonance between Māori and Asian cultures.

    The government needs to consider the cultural distance between Māori and Asian cultures as it works to promote trade with its Asian partners.

    Incorporating tikanga Māori in international policy and engagement can enable authentic relationships with Asia.

    In addition, New Zealand could further include Māori representation in diplomacy with specific Māori diplomatic roles for Asia.

    Strategies can include adopting Māori values in decision-making – such as focusing on manaakitanga and kaitiakitanga. The government needs to also support Māori businesses to enter Asian markets and encourage training focused on Asian and Māori cross-cultural exchanges that include opportunities to learn Asian languages to bolster communication.

    But this would require a thorough alignment of the New Zealand government towards Te Tiriti o Waitangi principles – a move that is unlikely with the current centre-right coalition.

    It is clear embracing tikanga Māori could provide an edge to New Zealand when it comes to engagement with Asia to foster stronger economic, trade, investment and tourism relationships.

    Hafsa Ahmed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Authentically embracing tikanga Māori can help New Zealand in the growing Asian markets – https://theconversation.com/authentically-embracing-tikanga-maori-can-help-new-zealand-in-the-growing-asian-markets-242005

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Bruce Wolpe says personal relations between Trump and Albanese would be ‘rocky’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Days from the US presidential election, the polls are showing the outcome of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains a nail biter.

    With the United States our closest ally, the result could have potential implications for Australia in areas such as climate change policy, defence and the economy. If there is a Trump victory, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will also have the challenge of building a relationship with an unpredictable character.

    To discuss the state of the contest and what comes next, we’re joined by Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Wolpe worked with the Democrats in Congress, and on the staff of Julia Gillard. Last year, he authored the book, Trump’s Australia.

    Wolpe regards the election as too close to call.

    They’re just deadlocked in two fundamental respects. National head-to-head across the country – the popular vote – they’re 49-48, 47-47, no one cracking 50, and there’s no clear favourite. And then that same pattern exists in all of the seven swing states that will decide the election per the Electoral College.

    In terms of key issues:

    Just as it is here in Australia, hip pocket is the strongest determinant of how you will vote, and so inflation and the state of the economy, in the lived experience, is the number one issue. Americans and Australians share the same experience over the past post-COVID years where there’s been an outbreak of inflation and high interest rates. And that means that the basket of goods that you buy day in, day out, week in, week out, from the supermarket to your petrol to your insurance prices are up between 10 and 40%.

    The second big issue is immigration. As I’m sure you know from looking at the news over the past three years, just following things, the southern border with Mexico has been effectively out of control. It’s back under control but in that time, perhaps millions of people have flowed into the United States.

    The third big issue is abortion rights, reproductive health rights and its future. The Supreme Court two years ago repealed Roe v Wade, which established a right found in the Constitution for women to take care of their reproductive health services. That’s the first time that a universal human constitutional right has been repealed since Dred Scott in the Civil War [denying slaves’ rights]. Three generations of women have grown up with the protections for them.

    This has become a very powerful issue. And 52% of all voters are women.

    On what either a Harris or a Trump administration might look like for Australia:

    I think with Harris, we would just see very strong continuity with Biden. I mean, on foreign policy issues, they really have worked together.

    The relationship with Australia is fine. Her relationship with the Prime Minister is absolutely fine. They know each other, can work together, a very comfortable working relationship.

    [As to] Trump and Australia: first, I really have to say in the first [Trump] term, I think Australia had the most untroubled relationship with Trump than any other country in the world, and that includes Israel, that includes Europe, that includes Canada.

    There is a structural trade surplus that the United States has with Australia. So Australia is not number one on the hit list of nations that are, quote, taking advantage of the United States in their trade agreements. […] It will start off in Trump’s head with all the countries that he wants to go after – I don’t think Australia is high on the list.

    However, on a personal level, Wolpe says there might be some issues between Trump and Albanese:

    I think personally it will be rocky at the start for several reasons. First, Trump will be briefed on everything that the Prime Minister has said on him and his presidency. And he attacked Trump for the January 6th insurrection. He’s for abortion rights and attacked the ruling of the Supreme Court. He’s for gun control, and Australia has a completely different posture on gun control, and Trump is strong on the Second Amendment. If Trump looks at the agenda of the Albanese government, it is a mirror image of Joe Biden’s domestic policy agenda adjusted for realities in both countries. But it’s the same deal.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Bruce Wolpe says personal relations between Trump and Albanese would be ‘rocky’ – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-bruce-wolpe-says-personal-relations-between-trump-and-albanese-would-be-rocky-242684

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Peter Dutton’s reshuffle: David Coleman the surprise choice as shadow foreign minister

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Peter Dutton has chosen a dark horse in naming David Coleman for the key shadow foreign affairs portfolio, in a reshuffle that also seeks to boost the opposition’s credentials with women.

    Coleman has been communications spokesman. He led the opposition’s campaign for an age limit on young people’s access to social media – a policy that was later adopted by the government and now has been legislated by the parliament.

    He is one of the opposition’s small band of moderates although not seen as a factional player.

    Coleman, who holds the Sydney marginal seat of Banks, has done extensive work with Middle East communities and the Chinese community. He is a former minister for immigration, citizenship, migrant services and multicultural affairs.

    The foreign affairs job, previously held by Simon Birmingham, who is departing parliament, was keenly sought by a number of frontbenchers. One of the aspirants was deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley, whose position entitles her to choose her portfolio, at least in theory.

    Dutton has also brought Julian Leeser back onto the frontbench, as shadow assistant minister for foreign affairs. Leeser quit the shadow ministry to fight for the yes case in the 2023 Voice referendum.

    While his return will be welcomed by many on merit grounds, it also reflects the high profile that Leeser, who is Jewish, has taken in demanding more action against the wave of antiseminism in Australia. Announcing his reshuffle on Saturday, Dutton described Leeser as “a powerhouse of support for Australia’s Jewish community”.

    The new shadow cabinet has 11 women, the same number as in the Albanese cabinet.

    Melissa McIntosh, from NSW, has been promoted to the shadow cabinet and takes Coleman’s previous job of communications. She stays shadow minister for Western Sydney.

    Claire Chandler, from Tasmania and the right, is promoted to shadow cabinet as shadow minister for government services and the digital economy and shadow minister science and the arts. Chandler was in the headlines before the last election for her campaigning against trans women’s access to female sports.

    The high profile Jacinta Price receives a promotion. In shades of Elon Musk’s role in the United States, in addition to her current responsibility as shadow minister for Indigenous Australians, she has been given a new role as shadow minister for government efficiency.

    Tony Pasin, from South Australia and the right faction, joins the shadow ministry as spokesman on roads and road safety. The government is emphasising its roads program in its campaigning, this month announcing $7.2 billion to upgrade the Bruce Highway.

    Matt O’Sullivan, a senator from Western Australia, joins the outer shadow ministry as shadow assistant minister for education.

    Ted O’Brien adds energy affordability and reliability to his key role as the opposition’s energy spokesman, in which he is prosecuting the nuclear debate. It has been speculated that the government is likely to do more to give people relief on their power bills.

    Kerrynne Liddle adds Indigenous health services to her responsibilities as shadow minister for child protection and the prevention of family violence.

    Victorian senator James Paterson, who as home affairs spokesman has been regarded as one of the opposition’s best performers, joins the Coalition leadership group.

    Michael Sukkar becomes manager of opposition business in the House of Representatives, the position that has been held by Paul Fletcher, who is retiring at the election.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Peter Dutton’s reshuffle: David Coleman the surprise choice as shadow foreign minister – https://theconversation.com/peter-duttons-reshuffle-david-coleman-the-surprise-choice-as-shadow-foreign-minister-248303

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What should I do to prepare for a monologue performance?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natasha Beaumont, Lecturer in Creative Arts, School of Education and Social Work, University of Sydney

    Frame Stock Footage/Shutterstock

    Monologue performance is a technically demanding but deeply rewarding form of theatre. Monologues are the purest form of storytelling an actor can engage in.

    Before I was a drama teacher and researcher, I was an actor on stage and television in Australia and in the United Kingdom.

    As an actor, you are always having to prepare monologues as audition pieces. Here are some principles and techniques to help you with this process, to allow you to draw in your audience and strengthen your artistic expression.

    Choosing your monologue

    Successful characterisation in monologue acting depends on “casting” yourself well. This means choosing a text and a character that resonate with your own persona and emotional range.

    Even if you decide you want to play someone with a completely different age, gender and life experience to your own, there should be something about this character that speaks to you: maybe it’s their sense of vulnerability, their love of life, their rage at unfair circumstances. The more you can relate to some specific aspect of this person, the easier it will be to access the emotional range to play them.

    If you decide on a character from a well-known play, make sure you have an understanding of the whole text the piece comes from.

    Finding the personality

    As an actor, you should have a good grasp of your character’s personality and attitudes to life.

    Look for clues in the monologue or the overall play that tell you something about this person’s inner psychology. Do they always agree with everyone, or are they always complaining? How do they talk about themselves, how do they talk about other people?

    In a well-written play, dialogue is always filled with signals like these that actors rely on when creating characters.

    Get clues about your character’s personality from the script.
    Cynthia Smith/Unsplash

    Another useful approach is to develop a detailed backstory for the role you are playing. Performers often use journalling or visualisation to deepen their emotional connection with the person they are depicting.

    Taking time to imagine these key “memories” can provide an emotional anchor when you want to access different parts of their personality. The audience will never know these choices you have made, but you will carry them within you, and they can add depth and dimension to your portrayal.

    Making the character physical

    Along with analysing your character’s psychology and motivations, spend time working on their physicality.

    How does this person move through the world? Are they a daydreaming wanderer, or a short sharp stepper who is always in a hurry? Do they close themselves off from the world with hunched shoulders, or do they stand tall and project themselves outward?

    These qualities might change throughout the monologue as your character moves through different thoughts and memories.

    Making stage direction choices for a monologue can be one of the most challenging things to get right. Simple things such as walking downstage to talk directly to your audience, or sitting down at a particular moment, can add effective dynamics to your performance. But any choices you make must come from an inner impulse within your character. Movement needs to be motivated by some kind of shift in their thoughts.

    Breaking down the monologue

    To identify these shifts, break down your script into key “beats”. These are the moments in a text where your character starts talking about something new. You can use these to create shifts in movement, tone and pace.

    Incorporating different beats into your piece is vital for keeping your audience’s interest. Every monologue should take the audience on a journey through a character’s inner life. Ensuring this journey includes some surprises or effective use of dramatic tension will help make your piece work as a solo performance.

    Sit down with the script and a pencil to find the ‘beats’ of the monologue.
    Media_Photos/Shutterstock

    Sit down with a pencil and mark down any point in the script where you think the character starts thinking or talking about something new. Once you have all these internal shifts marked out, decide if any of these could be played with a contrasting emotional tone and pace to create dramatic effect.

    Who are you talking to?

    Performing a piece on your own can be daunting as there are no other characters to respond to or generate reactions from. Understanding who your character is speaking to during the monologue means you can use your audience as an additional “actor”. Are they an ally or an enemy? Or are these private thoughts, with the audience as a witness to your inner mind?

    Clarifying this relationship can help you make clearer choices in how you deliver your lines.

    Give yourself time

    There are many creative decisions to be made when preparing a monologue performance.

    Make sure to give yourself enough time to make these decisions and to learn your lines by heart.

    Think about the physicality of the character you have chosen.
    foto-lite/Shutterstock

    Experiment with lots of different choices when you are starting out and rehearse your piece as often as possible. This will help reduce nerves when it comes to your final performance as it’s difficult to focus on acting when your mind is racing trying to remember what to say next.

    Once the hard work of preparation, experimentation and creative expression is done, there is no better feeling than nailing a solo performance!

    Natasha Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What should I do to prepare for a monologue performance? – https://theconversation.com/what-should-i-do-to-prepare-for-a-monologue-performance-238778

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –