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Category: Features

  • MIL-Evening Report: Chaotic scenes at Travis Scott’s Melbourne concert: what is the role of artists in crowd behaviour?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Analytics & Resilience, UNSW Sydney

    Travis Scott’s Melbourne concert on October 22 lived up to his reputation for chaotic performances. Fans, eager for a high-energy show, were met with unruly scenes both inside and outside the venue.

    Reports described concertgoers clashing, throwing plastic bottles and dismantling barricades.

    As some fans attempted to breach security barriers to enter the mosh pit, physical altercations with security guards erupted. One fan reportedly suffered a seizure after trying to bypass barricades.

    These occurrences, at times, were reminiscent of the dangerous atmosphere at Scott’s past concerts, including the fatal 2021 crowd crush at Astroworld Festival in Houston.

    Modern crowd psychology shows us collective behaviour is shaped by perceived group norms, and these norms can either foster safety or encourage chaos. This performance – contrasted with other recent big concerts in Australia – highlights the urgent need to rethink the roles of performers in crowd management.

    Defiance is normalised

    While performing, Scott often urges fans to lose control and embrace the chaos. This induces behaviours such as mosh pits, crowd surfing, and even at times, ignoring fans in distress.

    Scott’s performances are characterised by his desire to have his energy reciprocated by the audience, which creates an environment where defiance is normalised.

    Statements such as “forget security, this is for y’all” push fans toward risky behaviours, making these concerts highly charged and, at times, uncontrollable.

    While this may foster excitement and adrenaline, it also sets the stage for unsafe crowd dynamics.

    The 2021 Astroworld tragedy, in which ten people died and thousands were injured in a crowd surge, should have served as a wake-up call about the elevated risks at Scott’s performances.

    Despite signs of crowd distress, Scott continued performing for nearly 40 minutes after Houston officials started responding to the mass casualty event. Despite visible signs of crowd distress, the show continued.

    More than 300 injury lawsuits were settled between festivalgoers and Scott and concert promoter Live Nation. Plaintiffs argued the concert’s organisers failed to act swiftly to prevent the disaster once the crowd surge became life-threatening.

    Though the Melbourne concert didn’t reach the same tragic levels, the chaotic scenes were reminders of the ongoing risks at Scott’s performances.

    Incidents like the one in Melbourne – with security struggles, fan injuries and disorder – should serve as near-miss warnings. The same volatile energy persists in Travis’ concerts and could amount to risky behaviour, luckily not of catastrophic consequences in this case.

    Different artists set different safety cultures

    While Scott’s concerts are known for their chaotic energy, artists such as Taylor Swift present a stark contrast in terms of crowd dynamics and audience behaviour.

    Swift’s recent Australian shows, which hosted record-breaking attendance numbers, ran smoothly.

    The difference in audience behaviour isn’t just about the genre of music and the energy and culture that comes with it. It’s also about how the artist interacts with the crowd. Swift creates an atmosphere of excitement while maintaining a sense of order, often engaging the audience in a way that fosters respect for boundaries and safety.

    Swift has a strong track record of prioritising audience safety and wellbeing during her concerts.

    In many shows, she stopped to address issues such as heat exhaustion or crowd distress, by encouraging fans to stay hydrated and to look out for each other.

    At her Edinburgh show in June 2024, she paused the concert three separate times to assist fans who were struggling in the crowd.

    ‘Perceived contextual norms’ are at play

    Crowd psychology emphasises how individuals in large gatherings adjust behaviour based on the perceived norms of the group.

    The Social Identity Theory of crowds explains that people align their behaviour with the crowd’s collective identity.

    A shared social identity within a crowd increases the likelihood of people adopting collective norms – even if those norms encourage risk-taking. Perceived group norms can override personal caution in favour of behaviour that is seen as accepted or approved by the group.

    Based on these theories, leaders influence group behaviour by reinforcing collective identity and norms.

    In the case of music performers, artists can guide actions that align with the group’s sense of “us”. This can ultimately lead to shifts in behaviour towards safety or risk-taking.

    What now?

    The contrasting experiences between Scott’s and Swift’s concerts offers a crucial lesson in crowd management: the role of leadership and the norms set by performers.

    We need to rethink the roles of performers in crowd management. Artists such as Scott wield immense influence over crowd dynamics, and this power should be harnessed more consciously.

    The chaotic, high-energy nature of Scott’s performances is part of his identity. Fans attend his shows expecting that intensity.

    The key difference lies in how the artist can create a high-energy environment without compromising fan safety. Encouraging fans to disregard security is an example of where defiance can stretch too far. The line between excitement and chaos becomes blurred. The messaging needs to shift to maintaining intensity but within boundaries that safeguard the audience.

    Awareness around how crowd behaviour is influenced by artists and the group norms that they set can help walk the line between excitement and chaos.

    Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Chaotic scenes at Travis Scott’s Melbourne concert: what is the role of artists in crowd behaviour? – https://theconversation.com/chaotic-scenes-at-travis-scotts-melbourne-concert-what-is-the-role-of-artists-in-crowd-behaviour-242115

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: a possible Trump victory is making the Albanese government cagey about its 2035 climate target

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    If Donald Trump wins the US presidency on November 5, his victory will have profound implications for other countries on many fronts. Not least of them will be climate change policy.

    Perhaps the uncertainty now hanging over US politics was on the mind of Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who shilly-shallied this week over when he’ll announce Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target under the Paris climate agreement.

    Bowen refused to be pinned down at the Australian Financial Review’s energy and climate summit on whether the target would be public before next year’s election. Neither his office nor that of the prime minister would be more specific later.

    Australia, like other countries, is required under the Paris agreement to put forward its target in February. But, also like other countries, Australia is focused on what’s happening in the US.

    Trump wants to take the US out of the Paris agreement for the second time. The first exit took effect immediately after his 2020 defeat and incoming President Joe Biden was able to reverse it at once. This time, there’d be no such quick turnaround.

    The Biden administration has been strongly committed on climate issues. If the US exited, the Paris agreement would likely be transformed.

    There may be other reasons why Bowen is being cagey about the 2035 target. Climate change and energy will be harder issues for Labor in this election, as it struggles with the realities of the transition, than in the 2022 one.

    In the run-up to that election, a desperate Scott Morrison pulled out all stops to win support within the Coalition to sign up to the 2050 net-zero emissions target.

    Labor was on the front foot, with a policy for a 43% reduction in emissions (on 2005 levels) by 2030, underpinned by a target of 82% renewable electricity by then. The election promise for consumers was a $275 cut in household power bills by 2025.

    Crafting a policy is often easier than implementing it. The journey to a clean energy economy is arduous.

    The $275 promise was quickly seen as unrealisable. The government has had to provide rebates to keep prices in check. The rollout of renewables is complicated by local resistance to some projects, including wind farms and transmission lines. At present, more than 40% of electricity comes from renewables.

    The cost-of-living crisis has increasingly dominated everything. Climate change remains a significant issue with people, but over time it tends to go up and down their scale of concerns, depending on changing circumstances.

    The Ipsos Climate Change Report, done annually, found in 2024 “strong notional support for the energy transition”, but low understanding of what progress had been made.

    Concerns about the negative impacts of the transition on cost of living and energy reliability have increased, particularly in the current high inflation environment. The perceived economic benefits of the transition are less clear, with many unsure about the impact on jobs and the broader economy.

    The emphasis on cost of living is influencing priorities for the energy transition, with Australians wanting to see energy prices and reliability prioritised. There is a growing sentiment that Australia should only take action if other countries are also contributing fairly to climate change efforts.

    Of course a summer of bad bushfires can change people’s priorities suddenly. Barring that, Labor is looking at a 2025 election in which it will be more on the defensive than the offensive on climate and energy issues.

    The opposition has already acted to sharpen the difference with Labor over the medium term targets. Peter Dutton will have no 2035 target before the election, and has questioned the 2030 target to which Australia is signed up, although he says a Coalition government would not leave the Paris agreement. He is also running hard on his controversial policy for nuclear energy.

    While Bowen is not clarifying whether he’ll announce the government’s target ahead of the election, it would be awkward for Australia not to meet the February deadline.

    There would not be a penalty, but it would be a bad look, especially given we are vying with Turkey to host, together with Pacific countries, COP31 in 2026. One unknown, incidentally, is whether a Coalition government would continue this bid, which the opposition has describes as a “vanity project”.

    If the government does announce the 2035 target before the election, the big question is how ambitious it will make it.

    Bowen will receive advice on this from the Climate Change Authority, to which the government has appointed, as head, former New South Wales Liberal Treasurer Matt Kean.

    In an earlier discussion paper, the authority said the evidence suggests

    A 2035 target in the range of 65-75% […] could be achievable and sustainable if additional action is taken by governments, business, investors and households […]. However, attempting to go much faster could risk significant levels of economic and social disruption and put progress at risk.

    A bold target would make the government more vulnerable, just when Labor would want the attention on the Coalition’s problematic nuclear policy. On the other hand, if the target were modest, that would be exploited by the Greens.

    Next month, Bowen will attend COP29 in Azerbaijan, where the central issue will be a financial goal, replacing the 2015 goal, for developed and major economies to help fund developing countries’ emission reduction efforts. Bowen, with Egyptian Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad, is leading the consultations on this, and so has a significant role at the conference.

    At the COP meeting, Bowen will get a better idea of where other countries are on their expected 2035 targets. He indicated this week he has already started taking soundings. “Obviously […] of course you think about international context.”

    By the time of COP, which runs November 11-22, America will have chosen its next president. The COP meeting will either be business-as-usual, looking to an incoming Kamala Harris presidency, or trying to anticipate the implications of a Trump administration that could be a major disruptor of international climate policy.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: a possible Trump victory is making the Albanese government cagey about its 2035 climate target – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-a-possible-trump-victory-is-making-the-albanese-government-cagey-about-its-2035-climate-target-242107

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Want to build healthier cities? Make room for bird and tree diversity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Buxton, Assistant Professor, Department of Biology, Carleton University

    More than five million Canadians — approximately one in eight of us — are living with a mood, anxiety or substance use disorder. The prevalence of mental disorders is on the rise, with a third of those with a disorder reporting unmet or partially met needs for mental health-care services.

    The stresses of the city, where more than 70 per cent of Canadians now live, can increase the risk of poor mental health even further.

    When most people think about caring for their mental health, they may think about getting more exercise, getting more sleep and making sure they’re eating healthy. Increasingly, research is showing that spending time in nature surrounded by plants and wildlife can also contribute to preventing and treating mental illness.

    Our research focuses on the importance of birds and trees in urban neighbourhoods in promoting mental well-being. In our study, we combined more than a decade of health and ecological data across 36 Canadian cities and found a positive association between greater bird and tree diversity and self-rated mental health.

    The well-being benefits of healthy ecosystems will probably not come as a great surprise to urban dwellers who relish days out in the park or hiking in a nearby nature reserve. Still, the findings of our study speak to the potential of a nature-based urbanism that promotes the health of its citizens.



    Read more:
    How the health of honeybee hives can inform environmental policies in Canadian cities

    Birds, trees and human connection

    Across cultures and societies, people have strong connections with birds. The beauty of their bright song and colour have inspired art, music and poetry. Their contemporary cultural relevance has even earned them an affectionate, absurdist internet nickname: “birbs”.

    There’s something magical about catching a glimpse of a bird and hearing birdsong. For many urbanites, birds are our daily connection to wildlife and a gateway to nature. In fact, even if we don’t realize it, humans and birds are intertwined. Birds provide us with many essential services — controlling insects, dispersing seeds and pollinating our crops.

    People have similarly intimate connections with trees. The terms tree of life, family trees, even tree-hugger all demonstrate the central cultural importance trees have in many communities around the world. In cities, trees are a staple of efforts to bring beauty and tranquility.

    When the Australian city of Melbourne gave urban trees email addresses for people to report problems, residents responded by writing thousands of love letters to their favourite trees. Forest bathing, a practice of being calm and quiet among trees, is a growing wellness trend.

    Birds and trees as promoters of urban wellness

    Contact with nature and greenspace have a suite of mental health benefits.

    Natural spaces reduce stress and offer places for recreation and relaxation for urban dwellers, but natural diversity is key. A growing amount of research shows that the extent of these benefits may be related to the diversity of different natural features.

    For example, in the United States, higher bird diversity is associated with lower hospitalizations for mood and anxiety disorders and longer life expectancy. In a European study, researchers found that bird diversity was as important for life satisfaction as income.

    People’s connection to a greater diversity of birds and trees could be because we evolved to recognize that the presence of more species indicates a safer environment — one with more things to eat and more shelter. Biodiverse environments are also less work for the brain to interpret, allowing restoration of cognitive resources.

    To explore the relationship between biodiversity and mental health in urban Canada, we brought together unique datasets. First, we collected bird data sourced from community scientists, where people logged their bird sightings on an app. We then compared this data with tree diversity data from national forest inventories.

    Finally, we compared both of these data sets to a long-standing health survey that has interviewed approximately 65,000 Canadians each year for over two decades.

    We found that living in a neighbourhood with higher than average bird diversity increased reporting of good mental health by about seven per cent. While living in a neighbourhood with higher than average tree diversity increased good mental health by about five per cent.

    Importance of urban birds and trees

    The results of our study, and those of others, show a connection between urban bird and tree diversity, healthy ecosystems and people’s mental well-being. This underscores the importance of urban biodiversity conservation as part of healthy living promotion.

    Protecting wild areas in parks, planting pollinator gardens and reducing pesticide use could all be key strategies to protect urban wildlife and promote people’s well-being. Urban planners should take note.



    Read more:
    Eco-anxiety: climate change affects our mental health – here’s how to cope

    We’re at a critical juncture: just as we are beginning to understand the well-being benefits of birds and trees, we’re losing species at a faster rate than ever before. It’s estimated that there are three billion fewer birds in North America compared to the 1970s and invasive pests will kill 1.4 million street trees over the next 30 years.

    By promoting urban biodiversity, we can ensure a sustainable and healthy future for all species, including ourselves.

    Rachel Buxton receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, National Institutes of Health, and Environment and Climate Change Canada.

    Emma J. Hudgins received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Nature et Technologies for this work. She currently receives funding from Plant Health Australia.

    Stephanie Prince Ware has received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    – ref. Want to build healthier cities? Make room for bird and tree diversity – https://theconversation.com/want-to-build-healthier-cities-make-room-for-bird-and-tree-diversity-235379

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Want to built healthier cities? Make room for bird and tree diversity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Buxton, Assistant Professor, Department of Biology, Carleton University

    More than five million Canadians — approximately one in eight of us — are living with a mood, anxiety or substance use disorder. The prevalence of mental disorders is on the rise, with a third of those with a disorder reporting unmet or partially met needs for mental health-care services.

    The stresses of the city, where more than 70 per cent of Canadians now live, can increase the risk of poor mental health even further.

    When most people think about caring for their mental health, they may think about getting more exercise, getting more sleep and making sure they’re eating healthy. Increasingly, research is showing that spending time in nature surrounded by plants and wildlife can also contribute to preventing and treating mental illness.

    Our research focuses on the importance of birds and trees in urban neighbourhoods in promoting mental well-being. In our study, we combined more than a decade of health and ecological data across 36 Canadian cities and found a positive association between greater bird and tree diversity and self-rated mental health.

    The well-being benefits of healthy ecosystems will probably not come as a great surprise to urban dwellers who relish days out in the park or hiking in a nearby nature reserve. Still, the findings of our study speak to the potential of a nature-based urbanism that promotes the health of its citizens.



    Read more:
    How the health of honeybee hives can inform environmental policies in Canadian cities

    Birds, trees and human connection

    Across cultures and societies, people have strong connections with birds. The beauty of their bright song and colour have inspired art, music and poetry. Their contemporary cultural relevance has even earned them an affectionate, absurdist internet nickname: “birbs”.

    There’s something magical about catching a glimpse of a bird and hearing birdsong. For many urbanites, birds are our daily connection to wildlife and a gateway to nature. In fact, even if we don’t realize it, humans and birds are intertwined. Birds provide us with many essential services — controlling insects, dispersing seeds and pollinating our crops.

    People have similarly intimate connections with trees. The terms tree of life, family trees, even tree-hugger all demonstrate the central cultural importance trees have in many communities around the world. In cities, trees are a staple of efforts to bring beauty and tranquility.

    When the Australian city of Melbourne gave urban trees email addresses for people to report problems, residents responded by writing thousands of love letters to their favourite trees. Forest bathing, a practice of being calm and quiet among trees, is a growing wellness trend.

    Birds and trees as promoters of urban wellness

    Contact with nature and greenspace have a suite of mental health benefits.

    Natural spaces reduce stress and offer places for recreation and relaxation for urban dwellers, but natural diversity is key. A growing amount of research shows that the extent of these benefits may be related to the diversity of different natural features.

    For example, in the United States, higher bird diversity is associated with lower hospitalizations for mood and anxiety disorders and longer life expectancy. In a European study, researchers found that bird diversity was as important for life satisfaction as income.

    People’s connection to a greater diversity of birds and trees could be because we evolved to recognize that the presence of more species indicates a safer environment — one with more things to eat and more shelter. Biodiverse environments are also less work for the brain to interpret, allowing restoration of cognitive resources.

    To explore the relationship between biodiversity and mental health in urban Canada, we brought together unique datasets. First, we collected bird data sourced from community scientists, where people logged their bird sightings on an app. We then compared this data with tree diversity data from national forest inventories.

    Finally, we compared both of these data sets to a long-standing health survey that has interviewed approximately 65,000 Canadians each year for over two decades.

    We found that living in a neighbourhood with higher than average bird diversity increased reporting of good mental health by about seven per cent. While living in a neighbourhood with higher than average tree diversity increased good mental health by about five per cent.

    Importance of urban birds and trees

    The results of our study, and those of others, show a connection between urban bird and tree diversity, healthy ecosystems and people’s mental well-being. This underscores the importance of urban biodiversity conservation as part of healthy living promotion.

    Protecting wild areas in parks, planting pollinator gardens and reducing pesticide use could all be key strategies to protect urban wildlife and promote people’s well-being. Urban planners should take note.



    Read more:
    Eco-anxiety: climate change affects our mental health – here’s how to cope

    We’re at a critical juncture: just as we are beginning to understand the well-being benefits of birds and trees, we’re losing species at a faster rate than ever before. It’s estimated that there are three billion fewer birds in North America compared to the 1970s and invasive pests will kill 1.4 million street trees over the next 30 years.

    By promoting urban biodiversity, we can ensure a sustainable and healthy future for all species, including ourselves.

    Rachel Buxton receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, National Institutes of Health, and Environment and Climate Change Canada.

    Emma J. Hudgins received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Nature et Technologies for this work. She currently receives funding from Plant Health Australia.

    Stephanie Prince Ware has received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    – ref. Want to built healthier cities? Make room for bird and tree diversity – https://theconversation.com/want-to-built-healthier-cities-make-room-for-bird-and-tree-diversity-235379

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How do genes shape the structures in our brains? We studied 70,000 people and found new links to ADHD and Parkinson’s

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luis M. García Marín, Postdoctoral Researcher, Brain & Mental Health Program, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute

    SeanidStudio/Shutterstock

    The human brain is a marvel of complexity. It contains specialised and interconnected structures controlling our thoughts, personality and behaviour.

    The size and shape of our brains also play a crucial role in cognitive functions and mental health. For example, a slightly smaller hippocampus, the structure responsible for regulation of memory and emotion, is commonly seen in depression. In dementia, atrophy of the hippocampus is correlated with memory loss and cognitive decline.

    Despite these insights, we have only scratched the surface of understanding the brain and its connection to mental health.

    In collaboration with scientists around the world, we have conducted the world’s largest genetic study of the volume of regional structures of the brain. This study is now published in Nature Genetics.

    We discovered hundreds of genetic variants that influence the size of structures such as the amygdala (the “processing centre” for emotions), the hippocampus and the thalamus (involved in movement and sensory signals).

    We uncovered their potential overlap with genes known to influence the risk of certain developmental, psychiatric and neurological disorders.

    More than 70,000 brains

    To understand how the brain connects to mental health, scientists like ourselves engage in large-scale scientific studies that span the globe.

    These studies, which involve thousands of volunteers, are the bedrock of modern biomedical research. They help us discover genes associated with brain size and mental health conditions. In turn, this can improve diagnostic precision and even pave the way for personalised medicine, which uses a person’s genetic test results to tailor treatments.

    We screened the DNA and closely examined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from more than 70,000 people across 19 countries. We wanted to find out if there are specific genetic variants influencing differences in brain size between individuals.

    What we found was stunning. Some of these genes seem to act early in life, and many genes also increase the risk for conditions like attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and Parkinson’s disease.

    What did we find out?

    Brain-related disorders are common, with an estimated 40% of Australians experiencing a mental health disorder in their lifetime.

    Our genetic findings reveal that larger regional brain volumes (the size of specific parts of the brain) are associated with a higher risk of Parkinson’s disease. In comparison, smaller regional brain volumes are statistically linked with a higher risk of ADHD.

    These insights suggest that genetic influences on brain size are fundamental to understanding the origins of mental health disorders. And understanding these genetic links is crucial. It shows how our genes can influence brain development and the risk of mental health conditions.

    By investigating shared genetic causes, we could one day develop treatments that address multiple conditions simultaneously, providing more effective support for individuals with various conditions. This is especially important in mental health, where it is common for someone to experience more than one disorder at the same time.

    Our study also revealed that genetic effects on brain structure are consistent across people from both European and non-European ancestry. This suggests that certain genetic factors have stuck around throughout human evolution.

    Bridging the gaps

    Our research also lays the groundwork for using genetic data to develop statistical models that predict disease risk based on a person’s genetic profile.

    These advancements could lead to population screening, identifying those at higher risk for specific mental health disorders. Early intervention could then help prevent or delay the onset of these conditions.

    In the future, our goal is to bridge the gaps between genetics, neuroscience, and medicine. This integration will help scientists answer critical questions about how genetic influences on brain structure affect behaviour and disease outcomes.

    Understanding the genetics of brain structure and mental health susceptibility can help us better prevent, diagnose and treat these conditions.

    The concept of the “human brain” first appeared in ancient Greece around 335 BCE. The philosopher Aristotle described it as a radiator that prevented the heart from overheating. While we now know Aristotle was wrong, the complexities of the brain and its links to mental health remain largely mysterious even today.

    As we continue to unlock the genetic secrets of the brain, we move closer to unravelling these mysteries. This type of research has the potential to transform our understanding and treatment of mental health.

    Luis M. García Marín receives funding from The University of Queensland (UQ).

    Miguel E. Rentería receives funding from the Rebecca L Cooper Medical Research Foundation, the Shake It Up Australia Foundation, The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research & the Medical Research Future Fund.

    – ref. How do genes shape the structures in our brains? We studied 70,000 people and found new links to ADHD and Parkinson’s – https://theconversation.com/how-do-genes-shape-the-structures-in-our-brains-we-studied-70-000-people-and-found-new-links-to-adhd-and-parkinsons-231824

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: We tried a different preschool curriculum to prevent youth crime. Checking in 20 years later, it worked

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacqueline Allen, Senior Lecturer, Griffith University

    Shutterstock

    There’s been an increased political and media focus recently on so-called youth crime waves, particularly in Queensland and the Northern Territory.

    This has unfortunately led to crackdowns from governments and police. Young people in Alice Springs have been subject to curfews.

    Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli (who’s ahead in the polls ahead of this weekend’s election) has suggested young people found guilty of some crimes should be sentenced as adults.

    But punitive youth crime policies violate children’s human rights and are an expensive way of making the community less safe. It’s much better to stop youth crime before it starts by supporting children’s positive development in early childhood.

    In a new evaluation published today, we found a preschool program reduced the amount of young people before the courts by more than 50%. When the right family support was provided too, the chances of the children committing crimes were even lower.

    Our original study

    Early community-based crime prevention strategies have been greatly neglected in Australia. This is despite international evidence and the recommendations of a widely circulated 1999 Commonwealth government report.

    Scientific evidence has been accumulating for more than 50 years that shows the root causes of serious youth crime can be addressed in early childhood through prevention initiatives. The most famous example is the Perry Preschool Project, implemented in a disadvantaged area of Michigan in the early 1960s.

    In Australia, the Pathways to Prevention Project operated in a disadvantaged, multicultural region of Brisbane from 2002 to 2011.

    It was a collaboration between Griffith University, the Queensland Department of Education, and national community agency Mission Australia.

    The children in the study learned communication skills through reading and games.
    Shutterstock

    The project aimed to improve child and youth outcomes by partnering with local preschools, schools, families and community organisations.

    In 2002 and 2003, 214 four-year-old children attending two local preschools received an enhanced program focused on communication skills. This is called an “enriched preschool program”.

    It was integrated into the standard curriculum and delivered by specialist teachers working with the children’s classroom teachers and their parents.

    Evidence at the time showed communication skills were directly linked to success at school. They were also linked to to success in life through improved behaviour and enhanced social skills.

    The communication program brought children together in small groups with similar levels of language competence. The groups were balanced in terms of gender and cultural background. They completed carefully curated activities including games, bookmaking and reading.

    Reading was a large part of the enriched preschool curriculum.
    Shutterstock

    These provided children with the opportunity to extend and practice oral language skills in ways that were personally meaningful. These activities were led by the specialist teachers who had postgraduate qualifications in communication and oral language development.

    The specialist teachers engaged parents and children in joint activities, and actively supported reading and language activities at home. By year one, children who received the communication curriculum had better language proficiency, social skills, classroom behaviour and academic achievement than children in the other preschools.

    The children’s families could also access practical support from community workers from their own cultural background. This included parenting education, advocacy with government agencies and counselling. This continued until 2011.

    What’s new?

    Earlier evaluations showed the enhanced curriculum helped improve children’s readiness for school, among a range of other benefits. Now we’ve evaluated the success of the program over the long term.

    Using anonymised data-linkage procedures, we followed up the students who received the enhanced curriculum back in 2002 to see what’s happened since.

    Children who received the enhanced curriculum had improved classroom behaviour throughout primary school. They were also 56% less likely to be involved in serious youth crime by age 17.



    Read more:
    Is Australia in the grips of a youth crime crisis? This is what the data says

    Remarkably, our evaluation found none of the children whose families also received support in the preschool years went on to offend.

    The full Pathways Program was implemented widely in the community over a ten-year period, so we thought it might have had an impact more broadly.

    We looked at the rate of youth offending in the region in the years 2008–16, when members of the 2002–03 preschool cohort were between 10 and 17 years old. It was 20% lower in this region than in other Queensland regions at the same low socioeconomic level.

    How does this lead to less youth crime?

    Programs like this work by levelling the playing field and improving the lives of children early in their developmental pathways. Developmental pathways are events and experiences that follow on from each other, or cascade, across the course of life.

    For instance, a difficult transition to school increases the likelihood of poor engagement and academic problems. These are well-known risk factors for antisocial behaviour.

    The long-term impact of Pathways to Prevention on youth offending means it could be a model for similar programs across Australia.

    This is especially the case given our nation’s chronic under-investment in community-based developmental crime prevention. We need more programs in disadvantaged communities that are open to everyone and don’t stigmatise people.

    Overwhelmingly, efforts across the country are devoted to early intervention with children identified as “at risk” in some way (such as showing disruptive behaviour), or to the treatment of young people who become enmeshed in the youth justice system.

    In Queensland, there is an over-reliance on youth detention, which is often very harmful for children and of no preventative value.

    Using Pathways as a model for other communities doesn’t necessarily mean exactly replicating what we did (though this is also important). Any early prevention initiative will have the best chance of success if it includes evidence-based strategies that improve children’s life chances.

    These can be implemented cost-effectively through existing systems including preschools, schools and primary care. Ideally, they should operate through local partnerships involved at all stages of planning, data collection, implementation and evaluation.

    Jacqueline Allen received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Institute of Criminology Research Grants.

    Kate Freiberg holds an unpaid position at RealWell and received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Institute of Criminology Research Grants.

    Emeritus Professor Ross Homel received funding from the Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology Research Grants, the Queensland Government and the John Barnes Foundation. He is affiliated with the Justice Reform Initiative as a Queensland Patron and provides honorary research support to RealWell Pty Ltd.

    – ref. We tried a different preschool curriculum to prevent youth crime. Checking in 20 years later, it worked – https://theconversation.com/we-tried-a-different-preschool-curriculum-to-prevent-youth-crime-checking-in-20-years-later-it-worked-235888

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Lee Miller helped shape our understanding of war. Her life as a photojournalist echo in those working today

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea Jean Baker, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, Monash University

    STUDIOCANAL

    This story contains spoilers.

    Lee, the feature film debut from director Ellen Kuras, explores the rawness of authentic image making and the impact of gender in war reporting.

    Kate Winslet stars as the world weary photojournalist Elizabeth “Lee” Miller – better known for featuring in an iconic photograph, rather than taking one.

    The same day Adolf Hitler committed suicide at his Berlin bunker in 1945, photojournalist David E. Scherman took a photograph of Miller sitting in the bath in Hitler’s Munich apartment.

    But Miller was also a trailblazing, feminist photojournalist who managed to shift Vogue magazine from beauty and aesthetics to capturing the reality of the second world war. She gave us images of the frontline, fearful women and children, concentration camps, and the aftermath of war.

    Here’s what you should know about the real woman behind the film – and what we can learn about war correspondents today through her story.

    In front of and behind the camera

    Miller was born in New York in 1907, and began her bohemian life as a model for Vogue before the war, and as a muse to her surrealist mentor Man Ray.

    The film follows Miller from her work as a fashion photographer pre-war, through to her photographing the second world war and then the liberation of Paris in 1945.

    Lee explores tensions with other renowned photographers at the time, such as Cecil Beaton (Samuel Barnett); her relationship with the second husband, English artist, historian and poet, Roland Penrose (Alexander Skarsgård); and her connections to the French resistance.

    Female photojournalists of the time were usually assigned to taking portraits or working in fashion.

    Miller, second from right, with other female war correspondents who covered the U.S. Army, photographed in 1943.
    U.S. Army Official Photograph/Wikimedia Commons

    When Miller was in her 30s, her photographs for Vogue leaned towards the surreal. This was also seen in her Blitz images, where two staff from the magazine wearing creatively designed gas masks about to enter a bomb shelter was published in the London edition.

    When the war broke out, Miller was accredited as one of four American female photojournalists. Like fellow American Margaret Bourke-White, Miller was known for the horrific images of Buchenwald and Dachau concentration camps in Germany, reinforcing the fact that photojournalism tells a story that is more powerful than any other form of journalism.

    Ethics and photojournalism

    A 2019 study examined how professional photojournalists apply ethics to their work.

    Photojournalists believe photographs should be published alongside news, that photographers are key in supporting the public’s “right to know”, and they must balance “their obligation to the truth, while minimising harm”.

    You can see these ethical frameworks all at play in Miller’s work, especially in her images of Dachau just after the war.

    Lee faced similar issues around ethics that photojournalists face today.
    STUDIOCANAL

    The editor of British Vogue, Audrey Withers (played in the film by Andrea Riseborough), refused to publish the photos. But American Vogue published them in June 1945, with the headline “Believe it”, as a modern memorial to the war.

    But photojournalists also take actions that prioritise themselves. Sherman’s image of Miller sitting in Hitler’s bath, though a visual metaphor for the end of the war, has been criticised as a “look at me” moment.

    In 2006, the New York Times described the photograph as “a woman caught between horror and beauty, between being seen and being the seer”.

    The place of the woman photographer

    Contemporary research suggests female photojournalists are more empathetic and have better access to vulnerable subjects than their male counterparts.

    In the film, Miller’s gentle photo of a French woman publicly accused of being an informant to the Germans illustrates empathy, while masking the hidden contradictions of war.

    Befriending a frightened girl in a bomb shelter, Miller has flashbacks of her youth as a victim-survivor of sexual violence. “There are different kinds of wounds, not just the ones you see,” she says in the film.

    A survey in 2019 of 545 female photojournalists from 71 countries found women faced more obstacles than their male counterparts, are still considered subordinate in the profession and subject to sexism.

    During the war, Miller used the gender-neutral Lee as her first name, instead of Elizabeth, fearing press accreditation on the frontline would not be approved if she was a woman.

    The National Press Photographers Association say gender bias and assumptions still continue to hinder female photojournalists. These commonly held assumptions include women are weaker, less skilled and will eventually leave the profession to raise a child.

    Living through her archive

    Lee begins and ends with the 70-year-old Miller reflecting on her career to a young male journalist, while continuously gulping down alcohol, perhaps illustrating undiagnosed post traumatic stress syndrome, all too common among news photographers.

    Returning to London after the war, Miller gave up photojournalism.

    After her death in 1977, more than 60,000 negatives of her work were discovered in her attic at home. These images of surrealist photography, Vogue editorials, second world war photojournalism and portraits of important 20th century figures formed the basis of her 1985 biography, The lives of Lee Miller, written by her son Antony Penrose.

    Lee is a visually, brave story about a female photojournalist whose images alter and enlarge our notions of what is worth looking at – and what we have a right to observe.

    Andrea Jean Baker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Lee Miller helped shape our understanding of war. Her life as a photojournalist echo in those working today – https://theconversation.com/lee-miller-helped-shape-our-understanding-of-war-her-life-as-a-photojournalist-echo-in-those-working-today-236878

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With 7 states deciding everything, can Trump and Harris reach the remaining swing voters – without alienating others?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

    Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina.

    In a repetitive, anxiety-inducing mantra, media coverage of the US presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris recites these seven states over and over again.

    The winner will almost certainly be decided by these states – perhaps a few of them, or maybe just one.

    Depending on your particular interpretation of the electoral map, the mantra might just be Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Or could it be Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Wisconsin? Or perhaps it’s Georgia, Georgia, Georgia.

    Some analysts argue that to win, Harris needs to hold on to the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three predominantly white states with large numbers of working-class voters. In 2016, Democrats were devastated by Trump’s sundering of this wall – he narrowly won all three.

    The Democratic victor in 2020, Joe Biden, rebuilt the wall with three wins in these states. (In fact, Biden won six of the seven battleground states in 2020, losing only North Carolina.)

    In this year’s campaign, Harris needs to keep it standing, while the Trump campaign is hoping to break it down again.

    But it’s also possible for some cracks to appear in the “blue wall” – if Harris can hold on in Pennsylvania, there is a path to victory for the Democrats through the remaining battleground states.

    The Trump campaign is, meanwhile, hoping it can repeat 2016 and break down the blue wall, particularly by winning the iconic rust-belt state of Michigan.

    An outsize focus on ‘swing voters’

    The critical role these seven states will play of course means they are the overwhelming focus of both campaigns and the media that covers them. Trump and Harris and their running mates have visited Pennsylvania and Michigan dozens of times, while residents of these states are being subjected to wall-to-wall television advertising.

    The other states are, effectively, stitched up for one side or the other.

    There’s no real possibility of Trump winning solidly Democratic New York or California. And no chance Harris will could win deep-red Wyoming or Tennessee.

    In the American democratic system, presidential elections are decided not via a national popular vote but the enslavement-era Electoral College (alongside widespread voter suppression). As a result, vast swathes of the American electorate are effectively disenfranchised.

    In the states that are in play, the polling margins are razor-thin, just as they have been in most elections this century.

    In 2020, for example, Biden won the popular vote by a four-point margin – seven million votes. But in the Electoral College, which is what actually decides the winner, Biden won by around 45,000 votes: 10,457 in Arizona, 11,779 in Georgia, and 20,682 in Wisconsin.

    While polls are only one indicator – and they aren’t always that reliable – they do suggest the result in the seven battleground states in 2024 may be that close again.

    That’s why both Harris and Trump have been spending so much time in those states. And it’s why their campaigns – as well as the media’s attention – are focused on finding as many voters in those places as they can.

    And because of the way the American electoral system works, this focus is disproportionately placed on certain types of voters – or “swing voters”.

    Both campaigns are chasing voters who may have gone for Trump in 2016 and then Biden four years later. They’re chasing “shy” Republicans or Democrats – voters who may be generally inclined to vote for one party or the other, but for whatever reason (usually, the particular candidate) are quiet about their choices.

    Since the role of the “blue wall” in both electoral politics and the American imagination is so pronounced, this means there’s an inordinate focus (often unconsciously) on white swing voters, in particular.

    Chasing the swing voters

    These voters may indeed turn out to be the critical deciding factor.

    But in American politics, it’s rarely one single thing that decides the outcome.

    In a system that does not have compulsory voting, in which small numbers of voters in a small number of states can change the result, voter turnout is the main game. This election cycle, it could matter a great deal.

    And that is why there is a hidden tension in both campaigns.

    In Trump land, there has been consistent pressure (and unsolicited advice) on Trump to “moderate” his stances on particular issues in order to appeal to those “shy” or swing voters.

    This is particularly the case with reproductive rights. It’s led to contradictory messaging from Trump – he’s taken full, individual credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade while simultaneously insisting he is not supportive of extreme, right-wing positions on abortion bans.

    Trump’s pick of JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate suggests his campaign decided not to focus mostly on swing or shy voters, but on mobilising and expanding their core voter base of white men. That is reflected in much of Trump’s media strategy and his consistent presence on right-wing podcasts.

    But that is contradicted occasionally, and quite deliberately, by high-profile surrogates, including his wife.

    The Harris campaign, on the other hand, seems to be attempting to divide its focus more evenly. Harris is chasing swing voters by going on Fox News and sharing a stage with former Representative and harsh Trump critic Liz Cheney. She also appeared with 100 Republicans at an event in Pennsylvania this month.

    At the same time, the campaign is also attempting to drive turnout in key demographics for Democrats. Harris is targeting young women, particularly in the South, by going on popular podcasts like Call Her Daddy. Similarly, she is reaching out to Black men by appearing on platforms like Charlamagne tha God’s podcast in a live event in Detroit.

    Does the strategy work?

    The question for both campaigns is: does one of these tactics undermine the other?

    Might the alliance between Democrats and the Cheney family’s deeply conservative stances on foreign policy, for example, further undermine or depress turnout in a state like Michigan, where outrage and betrayal over Democratic support for Israel may well be a deciding factor?

    Alternatively, will Harris’ more hardline message on immigration depress enthusiasm amongst Black and Latino voters?

    Similarly, might the Republican Party’s position on reproductive rights, and the consequences of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, mean Trump continues to lose support with women, which might not be countered by a sizeable boost in men’s turnout?

    The answer is: we don’t know. And if the margins are indeed as close as the polling suggests, we may not know for some time after election day.

    Until then, the mantra keeps repeating:

    Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina.

    Emma Shortis is senior researcher in international and security affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

    – ref. With 7 states deciding everything, can Trump and Harris reach the remaining swing voters – without alienating others? – https://theconversation.com/with-7-states-deciding-everything-can-trump-and-harris-reach-the-remaining-swing-voters-without-alienating-others-240670

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘We will not allow others to determine our fate’: Pacific nations dial up pressure on Australia’s fossil fuel exports

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liam Moore, Lecturer in International Politics and Policy, James Cook University

    Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo took to a stage in Apia, Samoa, on Thursday morning to say something pointed. Planned fossil fuel expansions in nations such as Australia represented, for his nation, a “death sentence”. The phrase “death sentence”, Teo said, had not been chosen lightly. He followed up with this: “We will not sit quietly and allow others to determine our fate.”

    Teo chose the moment for this broadside well – on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), attended by both King Charles and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The speech came at the launch of a new report on moves by the “big three” Commonwealth states – the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia – to expand fossil fuel exports.

    These three states make up just 6% of the population of the Commonwealth’s 56 nations, but account for over 60% of the carbon emissions generated through extraction since 1990, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative report shows.

    Canada and the UK are no climate angels, given their respective exports of highly polluting oil from oil sands and North Sea oil and gas. But Teo and others in the movement to stop proliferation of fossil fuels have reserved special criticism for Australia. That’s because Australia is now second only to Russia based on emissions from its fossil fuel exports and has the largest pipeline of coal export projects in the world – 61% of the world’s total.

    The elephant in the room

    Tuvalu, like many other small Pacific nations, is laser-focused on the threat of climate change. Across the Pacific, rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion are already pushing people to consider migration or retreat.

    Australia has long been influential in the Pacific, even more so as Western states try to outcompete Chinese funds and influence in the region. But fossil fuel exports are a very large elephant in the room.

    As Tuvalu’s leader points out, Australia is:

    morally obliged to ensure that whatever action it does [take] will not compromise the commitment it has provided in terms of climate impact.

    Teo pointed out the “obvious” inconsistency between Australia’s commitment to net zero by 2050 and ramping up fossil fuel exports.

    This year, Australia and Tuvalu’s groundbreaking Falepili Union treaty came into force. The treaty includes some migration rights for Tuvaluans as well as a controversial security agreement. But Teo has now flagged using this as leverage to “put pressure on Australia to align its activities in terms of fossil fuels”.

    Tuvalu’s diplomatic pressure is a small part of broader efforts by island states facing escalating climate damage to be seen not as passive victims but to emphasise, as Teo said, they are also “at the forefront of climate action”.

    Echoing these sentiments was Vanuatu’s climate envoy, Ralph Regenvanu. He called on Commonwealth nations to “not sacrifice the future of vulnerable nations for short-term gains”, and “to stop the expansion of fossil fuels in order to protect what we love and hold dear here in the Pacific”.

    Vanuatu and Tuvalu have led the campaign for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty, committing signatories to ending expansion of fossil fuels. So far, 12 other nations have joined, including Fiji, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Republic of Marshall Islands, Colombia and the CHOGM host, Samoa.

    Australia all alone?

    It’s not surprising to see Australia facing these calls for action. The meeting is being held in Samoa, the first time a Pacific Island state has hosted Commonwealth leaders.

    Leaders of other large Commonwealth states have skipped the meeting. Notable by their absence were Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

    Climate action is one of several background issues in Apia. One of the more significant is the call for reparations for slavery from former British colonies – calls UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is keen to put to the side. But reports on the ground suggest the issues of reparations, monarchy and the future relevance of the Commonwealth are all in the shadow of the main concern – climate change.

    The meeting also serves as a precursor to November’s United Nations climate talks, the COP29 conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. Pacific nations are focused on building consensus on climate finance.

    Australia has its own concerns. The host of the 2026 COP31 conference will be announced in Baku, with a joint Australia-Pacific bid in competition with Türkiye. Observers suggest Australia is in the box seat, but it has faced consistent pressure from Pacific states to reconcile its actions with its climate rhetoric.

    There are domestic implications too. As the next federal election looms, the lure of a potential A$200 million windfall for the COP host city would be more than welcome.

    Securing an Australia-Pacific COP could also boost the government’s environmental credentials as it comes under sustained attack from the Greens over fossil fuels and the Coalition over energy security and nuclear power.

    In Apia, Pacific efforts to convince leaders of the need for greater climate action are reported to include a walk through a mangrove reserve for King Charles, guided by Samoan chief and parliamentarian Lenatai Vicor Tamapua. Tamapua told the ABC he showed leaders how king tides today were “about twice what it was 20, 30 years ago”, which he says is forcing people to “move inwards, inland now”.

    For Australia, difficult questions remain. How will it balance regional demands to phase out coal and gas exports with domestic pressures to maintain jobs, public funds and economic growth? Can it walk the tightrope and be the partner of choice in the Pacific while continuing to explore for, extract and export coal and gas?

    These questions will not be resolved in Apia. They might not even be resolved by the next federal government, or by the time COP31 arrives. But they will not go away.

    The way Australia and other exporters resolve these tensions will, as Teo says, decide whether Tuvalu stays liveable – or goes under.

    Liam Moore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘We will not allow others to determine our fate’: Pacific nations dial up pressure on Australia’s fossil fuel exports – https://theconversation.com/we-will-not-allow-others-to-determine-our-fate-pacific-nations-dial-up-pressure-on-australias-fossil-fuel-exports-242103

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Stalking rates in Australia are still shockingly high – one simple strategy might help

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Troy McEwan, Professor of Clinical and Forensic Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

    UfaBizPhoto/Shutterstock

    New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals one in seven adult Australians have been stalked in their lifetime: one in five women and one in 15 men.

    While shocking to many, for those of us who work in the field, there is nothing surprising about these figures.

    The ABS has conducted similar surveys roughly every five years since 2005, which reveal basically the same results each time.

    About 3-4% of women and 1-2% of men are victims of stalking every year.

    These rates are consistent with those reported in research from the United Kingdom and United States, with small variations depending on definition.

    Stalking rates have remained stubbornly consistent despite the same ABS survey showing reductions in the rates of intimate partner violence and general violence over the past decade.

    The reasons for this are unclear, though there are obvious differences in the level of government and community investment in countering intimate partner violence versus awareness of and attention to stalking.

    What exactly is stalking?

    Stalking is a pattern of repeated and unwanted behaviour in which one person pushes their way into the life of another where they have no legitimate right to be, causing the target distress and fear.

    The most common methods are unwanted communication (by phone or digital media) and unwanted contacts (such as following someone or loitering nearby).

    Threats of violence and assault occur in at least a quarter of cases.

    Stalking that persists for more than two weeks is more likely to continue and cause significant harm.

    The impact of stalking

    Victims of persistent stalking have described it as “psychological rape”, with the stalker invading every part of their life.

    The cumulative impact of seemingly never-ending intrusions, and their social and financial toll, is probably why stalking victims report high rates of depression, anxiety and traumatic stress disorders.

    Researchers have estimated being stalked for 14 months costs victims approximately $A140,000, including direct costs from lost work and legal expenses and indirect costs of physical and mental harm.

    Who stalks?

    Most stalking is perpetrated by people who are known to the victim, either as an acquaintance or an ex-partner, with strangers responsible for about 20-25% of stalking.

    Stalking usually starts either because the person feels mistreated and stalks to take revenge or right the wrong, or they stalk to start or enact a relationship with the victim that does not exist. In a small number of cases, stalking has a sexual motivation and can sometimes be part of planning or preparation for a sexual assault.

    Regardless of motivation, most stalking is communicative – the stalker wants the victim to know they exist and to feel like they must respond.

    However, responding to a stalker is not advisable as it usually just adds fuel to the emotional fire that drives them.

    Ex-partners account for just under half of all stalking cases and many more women than men are stalked by an ex.

    Stalking in this context is a type of intimate partner violence and it receives by far the most attention and response.

    Research suggests that intimate partner stalking is more often identified as being perpetrated by former rather than current partners.

    Psychological abuse or coercive control during a relationship might be linked to increased potential for stalking after a break-up.

    Physical violence is much more common in cases of ex-partner stalking, with the ABS survey and earlier research finding half of intimate partner stalkers used physical violence.

    Thankfully, most stalking-related violence does not cause severe physical harm and homicide is extremely rare.

    Although prior stalking is common in ex-partner homicides, recent Victorian research showed that of 5,026 intimate partner violence reports to police involving stalking, only nine involved fatal or near fatal violence in the following 12 months.

    This means the presence of stalking is not a useful risk factor for trying to predict intimate partner homicide.

    Strategies against stalking

    Numerous strategies have been identified to prevent and reduce stalking-related harms. Among those tried largely outside Australia:

    The Victorian Law Reform Commission’s 2022 review of stalking laws recommended adoption of several of these strategies, though to date the state government has committed only to revising the stalking law.

    A simple but powerful strategy

    Stalking is a complicated problem and a comprehensive response needs multi-faceted systemic change that will be costly and take much effort and time.

    Currently, there doesn’t seem to be an appetite in Australia for the work required.

    However, there is one relatively straightforward thing the federal, state and territory governments could do right now to help: establish a national stalking helpline that can provide specialist information, advice and advocacy for all victims.

    Such a helpline was established in the UK in 2010 and has supported more than 65,000 people.

    The helpline provides online and telephone advice to potential stalking victims, including basic risk assessment, advocacy and links to local support services. It also provides advice to mental health professionals and others who are supporting stalking victims.

    The helpline serves all people, regardless of their gender or relationship with the stalker. Nearly half (45%) of its clients are stalked by a stranger or acquaintance, not an ex-partner. This highlights the importance of a specialised stalking response separate to existing services for family and intimate partner violence.

    An Australian equivalent would provide immediate support for victims and a focal point for necessary research and evaluation into what works to stop stalking.

    An Australian national stalking helpline would be a practical, relatively inexpensive and immediately helpful strategy that governments could implement to support the hundreds of thousands of Australians who are stalked every year.

    Troy McEwan has received funding from the Australian Research Council and Victoria Police for stalking-related research.

    – ref. Stalking rates in Australia are still shockingly high – one simple strategy might help – https://theconversation.com/stalking-rates-in-australia-are-still-shockingly-high-one-simple-strategy-might-help-241891

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why Woolworths workers can’t sleep at night: inside the supermarket giant’s controversial ‘Framework’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Kate Kelly, PhD Candidate, ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society, RMIT University

    In early 2024, Woolworths introduced a new worker performance management program across warehouses run by the company’s distribution arm, Primary Connect.

    Under the program, known as the Coaching and Productivity Framework or simply “the Framework”, workers say they face potential disciplinary action if they fail to achieve 100% adherence to a speed-related metric known as pick rates. This represents a sharp break from previous approaches in which a pick rate of 100% was a non-enforceable goal, rather than a basic requirement.

    A Primary Connect spokesperson told The Conversation the Framework is more flexible, ensuring “a fair approach to the standards is applied to any personal circumstances or abilities”, with exemptions “for when a team member is unable to perform to standards, including pregnancy, disability or injury”.

    Workers say the new system creates huge stress and leads to unsafe work practices.

    An outline of the Woolworths Coaching and Productivity Framework.
    Woolworths

    ‘Scientific management’

    Although pick rates are common across warehousing, enforcing 100% compliance is highly unusual. In a memo to warehouse staff, Woolworths justified the strict enforcement of pick rates by claiming they are based on “engineered standards”, which are “the times that a trained and competent person should take to complete a set task safely using the ‘agreed method’ for that task”.

    Engineered standards (or engineered labour standards) are also widespread in the warehousing industry. Developed in the early 20th century by US management consultants, engineered standards follow the stopwatch studies and time-and-motion methodologies of Frederick Winslow Taylor, the pioneer of “scientific management”.

    To this day, engineered standards may be developed by “putting the stopwatch” on workers to record and standardise the time taken to perform a particular task. These data sets may be used to develop and justify pick rates.

    Turning workers into data points

    The use of engineered standards integrates workers into Woolworths’ ongoing program of increased automation and surveillance across its business.

    Much like inventory, workers’ bodies also become a data point to be monitored in terms of speed and movement. Engineered standards encode the assumption that human labour can be rationalised in the same way as the activity of a machine.

    Engineered standards promise the ability to control the output of workers at every moment. In practice, the application of engineered standards is often flawed and inaccurate.

    Regardless of accuracy, engineered standards and other algorithmic systems may have other benefits for management, providing a veneer of technological objectivity for decision-making.

    Confusing and inconsistent

    Through research for my PhD and my work with the United Workers Union, I have heard many concerns from workers subjected to the Framework.

    One common concern is that, due to the algorithmic nature of the Framework, the pick rate is opaque. In practice, workers do not know what 100% compliance means, so they do not even know what is expected of them.

    Workers report that rates seem to change and are applied inconsistently across different departments.

    The psychological impact has been significant. Workers have reported lying awake at night and experiencing heightened anxiety of job loss following the introduction of the Framework.

    One worker told me:

    I can’t sleep thinking about what would happen if I lost my job because I didn’t meet the standards a few times and my average wasn’t high enough.

    Another said:

    I frequently go to sleep and dream of picking at work. I find myself thinking of work at home and dreaming of work when I’m sleeping. I’m constantly on edge whenever I see a team leader, thinking I’ve done something wrong.

    And a third:

    I have some personal issues at home with my marriage and I’m laying awake thinking about my pick rate and if I will have a job tomorrow.

    Speed and safety

    Workers have also reported they feel compelled to prioritise speed over safety to meet the pick rate, or risk losing their job. At the same time, failure to work safely can also result in disciplinary action, injury or worse.

    Failure to meet the pick rate may result in a “tap on the shoulder” from management. This may be followed by notification that “coaching” will commence as part of a 12-week performance management program.

    Coaching consists of working under the close supervision of a manager who is tasked with observing the worker’s movements and appraising their speed against a company checklist.

    In the words of another worker:

    They are watching you, following you around with a clipboard, piece of paper and a pen. Writing stuff down behind you. It feels degrading.

    Monitoring ‘gap times’ such as toilet breaks

    Distribution centres are complex and dynamic environments. Congestion builds in aisles, equipment glitches and breaks, pallets spill, and batteries go flat.

    Woolworths claims the Framework takes into account “gap times”, which include reasonable periods of unavoidable delay, worker fatigue, rest breaks and so on.

    Gap times refer to any time during a shift when a worker is not actively on task. Workers report that time pressures have resulted in breaks being skipped, and safety measures disregarded, to meet pick rate targets and avoid disciplinary action.

    A question of control

    Following widespread worker disputes, including one filed with the Fair Work Commission in April, the Framework has been temporarily placed on pause. If reinstated, it would take effect at 15 distribution centres across the country, impacting about 8,000 permanent workers and, indirectly or directly, several thousand casual labour-hire workers.

    Woolworths team members represented by the United Workers Union are currently bargaining for a new enterprise agreement. Abolition of the Framework and related disciplinary action is a key demand of the union.

    In a statement to The Conversation, a Primary Connect spokesperson said:

    We have listened to the feedback from the union on the Framework, and will engage our teams in the distribution centres and the union in due course. As the country’s largest private sector employer, we are committed to ensuring that our workplaces are safe and productive for our teams and customers.

    Beyond Woolworths, the contest over pick rates raises a broader question: to what extent should an employer be able to dictate the speed of work?

    Clearly, an employer can assign the duration of a shift and ask workers to perform their role to the best of their abilities, but should workers retain the right to control the speed at which they move their own body?

    The future of the Woolworths Framework may have widespread implications for working life in Australia.

    Lauren Kate Kelly receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society. She is affiliated with the United Workers Union, which represents workers across the supermarket supply chain.

    – ref. Why Woolworths workers can’t sleep at night: inside the supermarket giant’s controversial ‘Framework’ – https://theconversation.com/why-woolworths-workers-cant-sleep-at-night-inside-the-supermarket-giants-controversial-framework-242015

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Netflix’s Territory is a Succession-like drama packed with family rivalry and betrayal, set in Australia’s outback

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexa Scarlata, Research Fellow, Media & Communication, RMIT University

    Netflix

    The Australian commissioning team at Netflix has had a pretty good run over the past 12 months. In January, the adaptation of Trent Dalton’s novel Boy Swallows Universe proved to be the most successful Australian-made show to that point, scoring 7.6 million views globally in its first two weeks.

    A few months later, the second season of the streamer’s Heartbreak High reboot debuted at number one in Australia, and stayed on the Global Top 10 English TV Series list for three consecutive weeks.

    Will Netflix’s latest Australian series – one without any ties to a familiar book or TV show – be as well received? Luckily for the streamer, its new six-part outback western, Territory, has already been described as “epic”, “unforgettable” and “rollicking TV”.

    Robert Taylor plays patriarch Colin Lawson.
    Netflix

    Premium bush family drama

    The series takes place in the Northern Territory, on the “world’s largest cattle station”. The fictional Marianne Station is about the size of Belgium.

    The once-great dynasty of its owners, the Lawson family, is thrown into doubt when their heir apparent dies in the first episode. The Top End’s most powerful players – billionaire miners, rival cattle barons, desert gangsters and Indigenous elders – immediately start circling.

    While this is an original concept by creators Timothy Lee and Ben Davies, you’d be forgiven for feeling a sense of déjà vu, as Territory has been described as equal parts Succession and Yellowstone. I can imagine Netflix executives running the numbers on the returns from those two hits and saying, “let’s throw some money into this”. And boy, did they.

    The show could double as a sophisticated Tourism Australia ad.
    Netflix

    No expenses spared on hats and helicopters

    Territory was directed by Wolf Creek heavyweight Greg McLean. According to him, it’s the

    biggest South Australian TV production ever. Possibly one of the biggest TV productions in Australia just in terms of the amount of crew (and) the incredible support that we had to put in place to go to the locations we went to.

    As Netflix put it, Bondi Beach this is not. While the interiors were filmed in South Australia, half of the series was filmed in stunning remote locations across the NT.

    As a result, the show looks like the most ambitious and sophisticated Tourism Australia ad you’ve ever seen. The wildlife! The panoramic drone shots! The hat budget! The rest of the world could go from thinking we ride kangaroos to work, to assuming we’ve all got our own helicopters.

    Overseas viewers watching would be forgiven for thinking the lot of us have our own helicopters.
    Netflix

    The show looks as expensive as it sounds, but is still kind of soapy. The irony in this story is that everyone’s dirty, but no one ever sweats.

    Territory was originally announced as “Desert King”. Changing the name was wise. The landscape is, for the most part, pretty lush – and not in a “look at this oasis we’ve stumbled upon” kind of way. I counted one fly.

    Desert queens

    What’s more, while the male characters are brilliant sources of humour and violence, it’s the ladies in Territory that bring the heart.

    Anna Torv leads the series as Emily Lawson. Emily is the wife to the next-in-line but perpetually drunk Graham (Michael Dorman). She’s also the girl from the property next door, belonging to the rival Hodge family – a slightly shifty bunch who’ve been known to steal the Lawson’s cattle.

    Anna Torv plays Emily Lawson with a keen sense of cunning.
    Netflix

    Torv was the perfect choice to embody Emily as the long-suffering wife, disdained daughter-in-law, loving sister and exasperated mother. Her poker face kept me guessing. She may not be a Lawson by blood, but her cunning makes her a great fit in this powerful family.

    Kylah Day plays Sharnie Kennedy, a young kid kicking (and fooling) around with a couple of Top End bandits. It was fun – if a little frustrating – to watch her figure out her loyalties and her limits.

    Finally, Sara Wiseman plays Sandra Kirby, a disgustingly wealthy and ruthless land developer who doubles as the quintessential villain. Sandra plays everyone – even her own son. Her merciless manipulation of aspiring Indigenous cattle baron Nolan Brannock (Clarence Ryan) stings, even as it feels quite heavy-handed.

    Clarence Ryan is impressive in his role as Indigenous station owner Nolan Brannock (left), who gets caught up in the drama.
    Netflix

    Whose land and whose legacy?

    Territory does a great job of establishing a simmering tension between the traditional owners of the land and the families and businesses that have taken possession of it.

    But for a show that’s so centred on the battle for power in the Top End, the plotlines that deal with the issue of dispossession move at a frustratingly slow pace.

    Perhaps this is to cater to a global audience, which will likely lack the context that local viewers have. And maybe, for Australian viewers, the enduring subordination and struggle of the original landowners is the intended takeaway.

    Ultimately, Territory is an ambitious and attractive series. It was wonderful to see so many resources poured into a new concept, filmed and set in a part of Australia that rarely sees the kind of spotlight it deserves.

    Sam Delich and Kylah Day play petty thieves Rich Petrakis and Sharnie Kennedy.
    Netflix

    Territory is streaming on Netflix from today.

    Alexa Scarlata does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix’s Territory is a Succession-like drama packed with family rivalry and betrayal, set in Australia’s outback – https://theconversation.com/netflixs-territory-is-a-succession-like-drama-packed-with-family-rivalry-and-betrayal-set-in-australias-outback-241896

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Unemployment’s up, house prices are stagnating. But is the Victorian economy doing as badly as it seems?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hayward, Emeritus Professor of Public Policy, RMIT University

    The early 1990s in Victoria were tough. The economy was contracting severely, the population was shrinking, employment was collapsing and the unemployment rate skyrocketed to the highest in the land.

    A long-term Labor government got the blame for allowing state debt to spiral out of control. Victoria, reckoned a popular joke at the time, was “Australia’s Mexico without the sunshine”.

    Is it happening all over again?

    Some reporting in national media would suggest it is.

    The Australian Financial Review has recently run a series on the state, including a piece last week quoting business leaders saying the Victorian economy was in trouble.

    Reference was made to the latest unemployment figures as supporting evidence. Victoria’s unemployment rate has risen over the last year, and at 4.4% is now the highest in the country. Rising numbers of company failures and stagnant house prices were also cited.

    Earlier in the month, data showing a falling rate of Victorian business start-ups was highlighted, while another Financial Review article examined the decline in the number of conferences. All this was referred to as evidence of a state struggling under the weight of

    $8.6 billion in levies [imposed] in [Labor’s] 2023 budget to curb a mountain of state debt that is forecast to reach $188 billion by 2028.

    The Australian also ran a feature on Victoria echoing the same themes.

    Readers were asked, “What the hell has gone wrong with Victoria?”. Public debt and taxation figured as prominent causes of an economic catastrophe in the making. The Australian deemed the state to be

    at best, trapped in stagnation, forcing it to cover falling private investment and expenditure with ever greater public largesse. And at worst […] as the spending and debt build-up sets off the alarms, a vicious spiral is triggered […] until the whole Ponzi scheme collapses.

    But are things that bad? What does the economic data actually show?

    Some positive signs

    It is true that unemployment in Victoria is rising, and is also high compared to the rest of the country. But it has been stable for the last four months, reflecting the impact of interest rate increases over the previous couple of years.

    Also, looking back over the last 40 years, the increase has been from a very low base, and remains at an historically low level – and a long way off the highs of the 1990s.

    The number of people in the labour force is continuing to grow at a healthy clip. The participation rate is now the highest on record.

    Last month, the labour force increased in seasonally adjusted terms by 20,000, and almost all of these additional people ended up in employment.

    The growth in employment since the end of the pandemic is notable.

    Since January 2023, employment has increased by 268,000, or 8% in seasonally adjusted terms. That’s 37% of the jobs added in the whole of Australia during that time.

    Yes, the share of job growth is falling, but it is still higher than the state’s population share, and it is from an unbelievably high base (55% of all jobs created nationally in July were in Victoria).

    The Australian Financial Review acknowledged that the latest jobs data were indeed “unexpectedly strong”.

    What about business insolvencies?

    Victorian insolvencies are on the rise (up 61% in September compared to the same month last year). But so too are they across Australia, with the national number rising at a higher clip (up 70%).

    What about the number of conferences in Victoria? We simply cannot be sure whether they are up or down, because there is no consistent data base to settle the matter.

    And while Victoria may have fallen behind other states in the number of new startups per 1,000 businesses, the actual number of businesses has increased by more than 31,000, or 3%, since the beginning of the year.

    How are house prices and rents holding up?

    Yes, house prices are tumbling. In real terms, they are around 20% below their pandemic peak, at least partly caused by a bundle of new property taxes introduced in the 2023/24 state budget to help pay for pandemic-related debt.

    But with housing affordability at an all-time low courtesy of high interest rates, that is no bad thing, especially for those keen to buy their first home.

    That fall in house prices stands in contrast to a boom in rents over the same time period.

    Over the last 12 months, median rents in Victoria have increased by 13.3%, and by 4.3% over the last quarter. In the March quarter, the rental stock fell for the first time on record, perhaps supporting those who see an economy in trouble.

    But that fall amounted to barely 10,000 dwellings, or only 2.7% of the stock. Those properties had to be sold to someone, and it is likely many were sold to first time buyers who, in changing tenure, had no net effect on the rental market. A redistribution of wealth like that may be no bad thing.

    Debt is high – but so is infrastructure spending

    There is no doubt the Victorian economy has been slowing, as has the rest of the country. That is exactly the outcome sought by the Reserve Bank when it pushed up interest rates last year.

    But there is little evidence to show Victoria is following the disastrous path of the early 1990s.

    Back then, state debt grew alarmingly because of a savage recession. This time round, state debt has grown strongly, but largely to fund a construction pipeline on a scale the state has not seen before.

    Infrastructure spending is now running close to $25 billion a year, almost five times what it was a decade ago. There’s a lot of jobs in those numbers, and shortly a lot of that infrastructure will come on line, boosting the state’s economic potential.

    There is one other factor driving Victoria’s surprisingly resilient economy. Net international migration increased by 152,000 in the year to March 2024 – almost 30% of the Australian total – driven partly by the return of international students.

    Very fast, migration-driven population growth is not being matched by increased output, and the state’s household income per person is continuing its long-term decline, leading some to argue it has become a “poor state”.

    Treasurer Tim Pallas will hope that the increase stock of debt-funded infrastructure provides the productivity boost sorely needed to turn that around.

    While on several indicators Victoria’s economy is slowing, this largely reflects a national trend. Drilling down into the data shows there are signs of growth, which suggest alarm at this stage is not justified.

    David Hayward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Unemployment’s up, house prices are stagnating. But is the Victorian economy doing as badly as it seems? – https://theconversation.com/unemployments-up-house-prices-are-stagnating-but-is-the-victorian-economy-doing-as-badly-as-it-seems-241762

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: If a Year 12 student gets an early offer for uni, does it mean they stop trying?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew J. Martin, Scientia Professor and Professor of Educational Psychology, UNSW Sydney

    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    Early entry schemes for university – where students get an offer before their final exams – are increasingly popular.

    For example, more than 27,000 students applied to the Universities Admissions Centre (which mostly deals with New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory unis) for an early offer in 2024. This was a record number and an almost 19% increase on 2023.

    On the one hand, early offers are seen as a way to reduce pressure on Year 12 students. But they are also increasingly criticised, with concerns students may stop trying once they receive an offer.

    Our new research shows applying for an early offer does not make a significant difference to how hard a student tries leading up to their final exams or their final results.

    What are early offers?

    The main round of university offers is in December-January, after students have done their final exams in the previous October and November and have their final results or ATAR.

    With early entry offer schemes, universities assess students using criteria other than (or on top of) final results.

    Amid concerns about students reducing their efforts, in February this year, federal and state education ministers agreed there would be no university offers until September. Federal Education Minister Jason Clare is pushing for a new, national approach to early entry by 2027.

    Year 12 students around Australia sit their final exams in October and November.
    Monkey Business Images/ Shutterstock



    Read more:
    ‘I don’t believe I would have gotten into university’: how early entry schemes help Year 12 students experiencing disadvantage

    Our research

    Our new study investigated the role of early entry offers on Year 12 students’ academic and personal wellbeing.

    We looked at three types of students: students applying for and receiving an early offer, students applying for but not receiving an early offer, and students who did not apply for an early offer.

    We then looked at multiple forms of academic and personal wellbeing, including:

    • the ATAR

    • motivation at school (their interest, energy, and drive to learn) and enjoyment of school

    • how students dealt with academic challenges (also called “academic buoyancy”)

    • study burnout

    • overall life satisfaction, mental health and self-esteem.

    Who did we study?

    The study involved Year 12 students in 2022 from schools in New South Wales.

    The average age for participants was 17, most (68%) were female, the majority (69%) lived in an urban area, just under a quarter (23%) were from a non-English speaking background, and just over half were from government schools (52%).

    We tracked the ATARs of 1,512 students for whom we had early offer data.

    We also surveyed a subset of 525 students from this group. We surveyed them in term 2 of Year 12 and then followed up with a second survey in term 4, about 2 weeks before their final exams.

    The surveys included questions about their academic and personal wellbeing. Both surveys were done online.

    What we found

    In terms of early entry status, 16% did not apply for an early offer, 21% applied but were unsuccessful, and 63% received an early offer.

    Using statistical modelling to control for prior differences in achievement and motivation between the groups, as well as age, gender, school type and learning difficulties, we found an early offer did not appear to have an impact on a student’s ATAR.

    We also found no impact on their motivation, effort, burnout or mental health.

    In fact, the best predictors of students’ final results were their previous results and their efforts earlier in Year 12.

    As our research showed, the findings for these predictors were statistically significant, meaning we can have confidence the results were not due to chance.

    This mirrors other research that suggests you can predict a student’s ATAR from their Year 11 results.

    Students in our study did not stop trying if they had an early offer to uni.
    Jacob Lund/ Shutterstock

    One important difference

    We did find one statistically significant effect. Those receiving an early offer scored about 10% higher in academic buoyancy than the other two groups.

    This means these students reported they were better able to overcome academic challenges, such as difficult assessment tasks and competing deadlines, as they approached their final exams.

    We found this difference even after controlling for any prior group differences in academic buoyancy.

    But we note it was only a relatively small effect.

    Why was there so little difference?

    Some possible explanations about why early offers did not appear to make much difference include:

    • Year 12 is a busy year full of activities (from formals and other events, to plans for life after school). It could be early entry status is quickly absorbed in all the demands of the final year and becomes normalised

    • the joy or relief of an early offer is short-lived and students return to their emotional equilibrium or their typical “set point” in terms of outlook on life

    • the ATAR looms large in students’ lives, so they may still want to do as well as they can – regardless of whether they get an early offer or not.

    What does this mean?

    Our study suggests receiving an early offer for university does not make much of a difference to final outcomes.

    So this suggests students can apply for an early entry offer if they want to.

    But once the application is submitted, they need to return their focus to factors that are influential in final outcomes — such as their learning, motivation, and engagement through Year 12.

    Helen Tam, Kim Paino, Anthony Manny, Mitch Smith and Nicole Swanson from the Universities Admissions Centre helped with the research on which this article is based.

    Andrew J. Martin has received funding from the Australian Research Council, International Boys’ Schools Coalition, NSW Department of Education, and Commonwealth Department of Education.

    – ref. If a Year 12 student gets an early offer for uni, does it mean they stop trying? – https://theconversation.com/if-a-year-12-student-gets-an-early-offer-for-uni-does-it-mean-they-stop-trying-241787

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cultural burning isn’t just important to Indigenous culture – it’s essential to Australia’s disaster management

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bhiamie Williamson, Research Fellow, Monash University

    Toa55/Shutterstock

    Last month, Australia’s newly appointed minister for emergency management, Senator Jenny McAllister, and Senator Tony Sheldon, special envoy for disaster recovery, took part in a cultural burn outside Lismore in New South Wales, as part of the National Gathering on Indigenous Disaster Resilience.

    It was significant to see members of the federal government listening to and taking direction from a cultural burn expert, Oliver Costello of Jagun Alliance, before undertaking a burn.

    Cultural burning is increasingly being used in disaster management. Pictured: Oliver Costello, Senator Jenny McAllister, Bhiamie Williamson and Senator Tony Sheldon at a cultural burn held during the National Gathering.
    Gabrielle Connole, CC BY-NC-ND

    It represented a hopeful sign that cultural burning might be increasingly used as a tool for disaster mitigation. After all, McAllister isn’t the minister for Indigenous affairs or the environment – her role is emergency management. At last month’s meeting, Indigenous peoples spoke of their desire and inherent right to be involved in disaster management.

    Cultural burning is, of course, vitally important to culture. But these gentle, regular burns were one of the main ways Indigenous groups managed land. They created mosaics of burned and unburned land, reducing the chance of megafires by burning fuel loads and creating safe havens in dangerous times.

    Networks of Indigenous groups have begun using fire to once again care for Country all around Australia. These are positive signs. But there is more to do to dismantle remaining barriers to mainstreaming cultural burning – and making it possible to use these ancient techniques to reduce, or avoid, disasters.

    An ancient practice rekindled

    The evidence of Indigenous land management using fire is significant and growing.

    This evidence has emerged through formal truth-telling processes such as Yoorrook, whose commissioners heard about the deliberate suppression of Indigenous land management in Victoria. It has come from ongoing academic research stitching settler accounts of the land and observations of how Indigenous groups used fire. In 1802, for instance, the settler John Murray recorded his amazement at how Boon Wurrung people set and controlled fire in Victoria’s Western Port Bay. The fire, which “must have covered an acre of ground”, was “dous’d […] at once”.

    In Mary Gilmore’s account of 19th-century colonial life in the New South Wales Riverina, she writes:

    As to fire, it was [Indigenous people] who taught our first settlers to get bushes and beat out a conflagration […] Indeed, it was a constant wonder, when I was little, how easily [Indigenous people] would check a fire before it grew too big for close handling or start a return fire when and where it was safest.

    These historical observations are complementary to the work of passing on knowledge of fire to the next generation. Taken together, they reveal a fundamental truth about Australia – it is a land of fire, and Indigenous people are the masters.

    The return of parcels of land to Indigenous groups in recent decades means we can restart these ancient fire regimes, through Indigenous rangers and other organisations.

    The return of ancient practices

    The management of land over deep time by Indigenous groups has meant people and the land effectively co-evolved.

    Since 1788, colonisation and Indigenous dispossession have radically altered many parts of Australia. Land was cleared for farms, cities, roads and infrastructure. Rivers were dammed for irrigation.

    Grasslands and yam fields were converted to livestock farms or cropping. Forested areas in some areas were cleared and in other areas thickly regrew, replacing the park-like mix of grassland and stands of trees produced by Indigenous land management. Thirsty crops such as cotton were planted, siphoning off huge volumes of water from lakes and rivers.

    John Glover’s 1838 painting shows open savannahs and grasslands in the Surrey Hills district of north-west Tasmania. In our time, this area has become temperate rainforest.
    Art Gallery of NSW

    Even the creation of national parks transformed landscapes, as Western practices of more passive management replaced active Indigenous management.

    The suppression of cultural burning brought yet more difficult change to Australia’s plants and animals. Australia now has one of the highest extinction rates of animals in the world. But cultural burning is being applied as a method to help protect vulnerable species, such as the Corroboree Frog.

    Over years, Indigenous groups have worked diligently and strategically to rekindle this ancient practice. But they have also reimagined it. It’s time to ask the question: what would it mean to bring back cultural burning at scale?

    No longer do Indigenous groups apply fire as a normal and everyday rhythm of life, stopping to light small fires as they walk. It’s now much more deliberate, requiring careful planning, creation of fire breaks and management of fire using trucks and heavy machinery.

    Even ignition is done differently. For a ceremony, firesticks will be used, with further lighting done using drip torches. In remote areas, fires are lit from helicopters, making it possible to cover vast areas.

    Combining these ancient and contemporary practices creates something fundamentally new. We require innovative discourses to better describe these developments.

    Indigenous Yika rangers burn using drip torches.
    Rohan Carboon/Indigenous Desert Alliance, CC BY

    New fire season, new hazards

    This fire season is likely to be a dangerous one. The seasonal bushfire outlook released by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Council projects the risk of early fires and a higher-than-usual bushfire risk over vast areas of Australia.

    Large parts of Australia are forecast to have a higher fire risk this spring.
    Australasian Fire and Emergency Council, CC BY-SA

    Recent rainy La Nina years triggered rapid vegetation growth in many areas, increasing the fuel load. Fire authorities are worried about what a forecast hot, dry, windy summer will mean.

    In recent years, Indigenous ranger groups have been undertaking cool burns as much as possible. In arid areas, there are fears of fast-moving grass fires due to the spread of introduced and highly flammable buffel grass.

    As danger from climate change intensifies, making volatile and combustible landscapes safer poses challenges both complex – and urgent.

    Indigenous groups around Australia have begun the work of rekindling cultural burns, but barriers still remain. Responsibility for fire management in state forests, national parks and on private land has long been split between government authorities and landholders. It’s time this disaster management work by Indigenous groups was recognised and magnified by governments.

    To mainstream cultural burning will mean finding ways of sharing the knowledge of when and how to burn, and resourcing Indigenous groups to undertake training and burns. Doing this will not only benefit the land and Indigenous groups, but all Australians.



    Read more:
    Before the colonists came, we burned small and burned often to avoid big fires. It’s time to relearn cultural burning

    Bhiamie Williamson leads the National Indigenous Disaster Resilience Program at Monash University. He is also a Director of the environmental charity Country Needs People.

    – ref. Cultural burning isn’t just important to Indigenous culture – it’s essential to Australia’s disaster management – https://theconversation.com/cultural-burning-isnt-just-important-to-indigenous-culture-its-essential-to-australias-disaster-management-241269

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Being mentally flexible might influence our attitudes to vaccination, a new study shows

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Gomes-Ng, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Auckland University of Technology

    Getty Images

    Making decisions about our health is a complex and sometimes difficult process.

    On top of our own attitudes, experiences and perspectives, we are inundated with information from other people (friends, family, health professionals) and from external sources (news or social media) about what it means to be healthy.

    Sometimes, this information is consistent with what we think about our own health. At other times, it may contradict our own beliefs. And to make things even more complicated, sometimes this information is deliberate misinformation.

    How do we make sense of all this when making decisions about our health? What determines whether we hold fast to our attitudes, or change our minds?

    Most of us can probably relate to this. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we had to change many of our behaviours to slow the spread of the virus. This meant working from home, wearing a mask, staying in our “bubbles”, and eventually getting the vaccine.

    While the decision to get vaccinated was an obvious one for many people, it was not as straightforward for others. Research from the period immediately before the COVID vaccine became available in New Zealand showed a sizeable minority was unsure about or unlikely to be vaccinated.

    These people were more likely to be young, female and less educated, and were primarily concerned about unknown future side effects. Our new research suggests cognitive (mental) flexibility may also have something to do with attitudes towards vaccination.

    A flexible mind

    Past research suggests mental flexibility plays an important role in our decision-making. Imagine changing the way you do something at work, having a discussion with someone with a different opinion, or being told you should make healthier choices (such as exercising more).

    Some people navigate these situations with ease. Others find it more difficult to adapt. Mental flexibility describes this ability to adapt our attitudes, thoughts or behaviours when faced with new or changing information.

    Studies show mental flexibility influences how extreme our opinions are, how likely we are to believe misinformation or “fake news”, whether we make pro-environmental choices or engage in health-promoting behaviours (sun protection or physical exercise, for example).

    To increase vaccination coverage, governments often use education campaigns that emphasise the safety, effectiveness and importance of vaccination. However, these campaigns don’t always succeed in reducing feelings of uncertainty about vaccination.



    Read more:
    Vaccine hesitancy is one of the greatest threats to global health – and the pandemic has made it worse

    We wanted to know why, and we thought mental flexibility might play a role. To test this, we surveyed 601 New Zealanders on their opinions and experiences of vaccination.

    Some questions asked about external factors, such as how easy they thought it was to access or afford vaccines. Other questions asked about internal factors, such as personal beliefs about vaccination, perceptions of their own heath, and how important or safe they thought vaccines were.

    Overall, our participants reported few external barriers to vaccination, with 97% saying they found vaccines accessible or affordable. These percentages are promising, and may reflect the government’s continued efforts to make it easier to get a vaccine.

    In comparison, internal factors played a larger role in vaccine uncertainty or hesitancy. In particular, nearly a quarter (22%) of participants reported concerns about the health risks of vaccines. And 12% said they didn’t trust the processes or people who developed vaccines.

    Health information campaigns don’t always succeed in reducing anxiety or uncertainty.
    Getty Images

    Testing adaptive behaviour

    We also asked our participants to play a game designed to measure mental flexibility.

    This involved matching cards based on a rule – for example, match the cards with the same number of objects. The rule would randomly change during the game, meaning participants had to adapt their behaviour as the game went on.

    Interestingly, people who found it harder to adapt to the rule changes (meaning they had lower levels of mental flexibility) also reported more internal barriers to vaccination.

    For example, when we split participants into two groups based on their mental flexibility, the low-flexibility group was 18% more likely to say vaccination was inconsistent with their beliefs. They were also 14% more likely to say they didn’t trust vaccines, and 11% more likely to report concerns about the negative side effects of vaccines.

    This wasn’t the case for external factors. Mental flexibility didn’t predict whether people thought vaccines were accessible or affordable.

    Information is sometimes not enough

    These results suggest making decisions about our health – including whether or not to get vaccinated – depends on more than receiving the “right” information.

    Simply being told about the importance of vaccination may not be enough to change attitudes or behaviours. It also depends on each person’s unique cognitive style – the way they perceive and process information.

    Declining vaccination rates have been a concern worldwide, including in New Zealand, since well before the pandemic. Our findings suggest health education campaigns may be more effective if they take into account the role of cognitive flexibility.

    One technique is to change the way information is framed. For example, instead of just presenting facts about the safety or importance of vaccination, education campaigns could encourage us to question our own perspectives, or to imagine alternative realities by asking “what if?” questions.

    Research shows this type of framing can engage our deliberative thought processes (the ones that help us to think deeply and critically), increase mental flexibility, and ultimately make us more receptive to change.

    Stephanie Gomes-Ng received funding from the Ember Korowai Takitini Trust for this research. The funders had no influence over the study’s conceptualisation, design, methodology, data collection or interpretation, nor the decision to publish.

    – ref. Being mentally flexible might influence our attitudes to vaccination, a new study shows – https://theconversation.com/being-mentally-flexible-might-influence-our-attitudes-to-vaccination-a-new-study-shows-241559

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Abortion is back in the headlines in Australia. The debates in the United States tell us why

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History, College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Flinders University

    The 2022 news that the US Supreme Court had overturned Roe v Wade and ended the constitutional right to abortion sent shockwaves around the world.

    For Australian opponents of abortion who had long looked to the US for leadership and inspiration, it prompted rejoicing.

    As a leader of Cherish Life Queensland put it, “if the USA can do it, with God’s help, so can we”.

    In late 2024, the abortion issue has suddenly erupted in Queensland and South Australia. A subset of local conservatives, energised by the fall of Roe v Wade and the example of Donald Trump, are embracing the divisive “culture war” tactics that dominate US politics.

    Abortion and Australian politics in 2024

    In the 2020 Queensland election, the Liberal National Party (LNP) has promised a “review” of the legislation that had decriminalised abortion two years prior. However, the party has spent most of the 2024 campaign studiously avoiding the issue.

    That is, until Robbie Katter MP, of Katter’s Australia Party, threw a spanner in the works.

    On October 8, Katter announced that if the LNP won, as was widely predicted, he would immediately introduce a private member’s bill to repeal the state abortion law.

    LNP leader David Crisafulli, who voted against decriminalisation, insists that changing the law is “not part of our plan”.

    However, last week Crisafulli was asked 132 times about abortion and the issue of conscience votes and refused to provide a clear answer.

    In the final leaders’ debate on Tuesday night, Crisafulli finally said there would be no change to abortion law and he was “pro-choice”.

    However, that is unlikely to be the end of the issue – opposition to abortion runs deep in the LNP.

    Party policy in 2018 was that abortion should remain a criminal offence. Despite being a conscience vote, the three LNP members who voted for decriminalisation were threatened with “punishment” afterwards.

    In 2024, several new anti–abortion candidates are running for the LNP. Former Liberal senator Amanda Stoker is a particularly high-profile one, having repeatedly addressed the Brisbane March for Life rally.

    The furore over the future of reproductive rights in Queensland occurred in parallel with controversy over anti-abortion legislation introduced by state Liberal MP Ben Hood in South Australia.

    His bill required anyone needing to end a pregnancy after 28 weeks to have labour induced and for the baby to be delivered alive, regardless of the health outcomes for the pregnant person or infant.

    Peak medical and legal bodies condemned the bill, which critics described as a “forced birth” measure. It was narrowly defeated in the upper house on October 16.

    Federally, Senator Jacinta Price has also called for abortion to be back on the “national agenda” and condemned abortion after the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. Her stance is out of step with abortion law in all Australian jurisdictions.



    Read more:
    Abortion is now legal across Australia – but it’s still hard to access. Doctors are both the problem and the solution

    Public and party opinion

    This sudden uptick in anti-abortion politics does not reflect Australian attitudes.

    A 2024 poll found 75% of Queenslanders agreed that decriminalising abortion had been the right action.

    This view was shared across partisan and geographical lines, held by 73% of LNP voters and 78% of regional Queenslanders.

    Historian Cassandra Byrnes demonstrates that these pro-choice attitudes have deep roots. A majority of the public opposed the police raids on abortion clinics that occurred under Nationals premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen.

    A 2020 poll of South Australians found 80% supported decriminalisation. And 63% considered that later abortion should be available “when the woman and her healthcare team decide it is necessary”.

    The LNP’s hostility towards decriminalisation was also markedly different from the approach in other states.

    Notably, in both New South Wales and South Australia, prominent Liberals, including premiers, voted to decriminalise abortion.

    In South Australia, two senior Liberals, Minister for Human Services Michelle Lensink and Attorney-General Vickie Chapman, led the cross-party group that achieved law reform.

    Importing the culture wars

    When Australian states and territories debated decriminalisation, anti-abortion opponents relied heavily on tactics, pseudoscientific evidence and outright misinformation that first emerged in the United States.



    Read more:
    How the US right-to-life movement is influencing the abortion debate in Australia

    For example, in 2008, one Victorian group controversially distributed graphic photographs of aborted fetuses, and American diagrams and descriptions of later abortion procedures.

    Now, as Australian conservatives seek to reopen the debate over abortion, American influence underpins the rhetoric and framing.

    For decades, opponents of abortion in the United States focused on chipping away abortion rights and eroding access. They never accepted that abortion was health care.

    Since 1995, their central focus was also on the statistically rare abortions performed after 20 weeks gestation. This focus has been imported wholesale into Australia.

    The anti-abortion activism surrounding Hood’s bill reflects these approaches. Opponents of abortions waged a broad and stigmatising campaign against abortion after 22 weeks and six days, the legal point in South Australia after which two medical practitioners must approve an abortion.

    Hood’s bill is best interpreted as an anti-abortion “messaging” exercise rather than a genuine attempt to amend the law.

    For decades, this was the default tactic motivating Republicans when they introduced extreme, unenforceable bills. The purpose was not legislative change but to amplify their rhetoric and arguments and energise conservative voters.

    Opposition to abortion is also part of a broader rightward shift taking place among some state Liberal branches.

    In South Australia, conservatives launched a power grab after abortion was decriminalised in 2021. This included a significant recruitment drive among Pentecostals.

    A similar recruiting focus on conservative religious faith groups has also occurred in Victoria, triggered by LGBTQI+ victories.

    In South Australia, the party takeover is openly led by Senator Alex Antic. He made a name for himself through his hostility to COVID-19 vaccines and his opposition to trans and abortion rights.

    Antic praises Trump and seeks out connections with conservatives who are or have been close to him, including Steven Bannon and Donald Trump junior.

    Meanwhile, in Queensland, Crisafulli’s desperate efforts not to be pinned down on abortion offer a local version of themes in the 2024 presidential election.

    Because Republicans have experienced significant voter backlash over abortion, Trump has charted an uneasy course.

    Trump claims sole responsibility for the end of Roe v Wade while simultaneously denying any connection to the abortion bans now in place in many states.

    Like Crisafulli, Trump has been unclear about what his victory would mean for reproductive rights.

    Political commentator Mark Kenny concludes that an “ideological battle” is unfolding among Australian Liberals.

    As in the United States, unwavering hostility to abortion is proving central to these politicians as a way to signify their priorities to voters and define themselves against others in their party.

    Prudence Flowers has received funding from the South Australian Department of Human Services. She is a member of the South Australian Abortion Action Coalition.

    – ref. Abortion is back in the headlines in Australia. The debates in the United States tell us why – https://theconversation.com/abortion-is-back-in-the-headlines-in-australia-the-debates-in-the-united-states-tell-us-why-241778

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Going down a Wikipedia rabbit hole? Science says you’re one of these three types

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Polkinghorne, Adjunct Senior Industry Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

    Johnson Martin / Unsplash

    If you’ve ever gone to look up a quick fact and just kept browsing from one article (or page, or video), to another, to another – then you know the feeling of “going down a rabbit hole”. This experience of curiosity-led online wandering has become synonymous with the free, user-created encyclopedia Wikipedia.

    Founded in 2001, Wikipedia is today one of the world’s most popular websites. With more users than Amazon, Netflix, TikTok or ChatGPT, the site is a go-to source for people to learn about and discover new interests.

    In new research involving more than 480,000 Wikipedia users in 14 languages across 50 countries, US researchers led by Dale Zhou at the University of Pennsylvania studied three distinctly different ways of going down the Wikipedia rabbit hole. These “curiosity styles” have been studied before, but not in such a large, diverse group of people using Wikipedia “naturalistically”, in daily life.

    The research may help us better understand the nature and importance of curiosity, its connections to wellbeing, and strategies for preventing the spread of false information.

    Wikipedia: first controversial, now mature, always popular

    When Wikipedia was new in the early 2000s, it sparked controversies. People such as librarians and lecturers voiced concerns about Wikipedia’s potential for platforming untrue or incomplete information.

    Today, the factuality of Wikipedia’s existing contents is less concerning than questions of bias, such as which topics the site’s volunteer editors deem noteworthy enough to include. There are global efforts to fill gaps in Wikipedia’s coverage, such as “edit-a-thons” to add entries on historically overlooked scientists and artists.

    Part of what made Wikipedia groundbreaking was how it satisfies people’s intrinsic learning needs by inviting navigation from page to page, luring readers into rabbit holes. This, combined with the site’s participatory approach to creating and verifying pages, sparked its rapid growth. These qualities have also sustained Wikipedia as a predominant everyday information source, globally.

    Research about Wikipedia has also evolved from early studies comparing it to the Encyclopedia Britannica.

    This new study examines data about Wikipedia readers’ activities. It looks at the different “architectural styles of curiosity” people embody when they navigate.

    Busybodys, hunters and dancers

    The new study explores the “knowledge networks” associated with the three main styles of curiosity: busybody, hunter and dancer. A knowledge network is a visual representation of how readers “weave a thread” across Wikipedia articles.

    As the researchers explain:

    The busybody scouts for loose threads of novelty, the hunter pursues specific answers in a projectile path, and the dancer leaps in creative breaks with tradition across typically siloed areas of knowledge.

    Earlier research had shown evidence of busybodies and hunters, and speculated about the existence of dancers. The new study confirms that busybodies and hunters exist in multiple countries and languages. It also details the dancer style, which has been more elusive to document.

    The researchers also identified geographical differences between curiosity styles.

    In all 14 languages studied, busybodies tend to read more about culture, media, food, art, philosophy and religion. Hunters in 12 out of 14 languages tend to read more about science, technology, engineering and maths.

    In German and English, hunters were more drawn to pages about history and society than busybodies. The opposite was true in Arabic, Bengali, Hindi, Dutch and Chinese.

    Dancers were identified by their forward leaps between disparate topics, as well as the diversity of their interests.

    The research team points out we still have much to learn about how curiosity is shaped by local norms. Relating these results to gender, ethnicity, access to education, and other elements will paint a fuller picture.

    Curiosity is beneficial, generally … and we have more to learn

    Overall, this study supports the benefits of freer, broader browsing and reading. Following our curiosity can help us become better informed and expand our worldviews, creativity and relationships.

    At the same time, people sometimes need closure more than they need exploration. This is not a bad thing or a sign of narrow-mindedness. In many situations there are benefits to moving on from information-seeking, and deciding we’ve learned enough for now.

    Endless curiosity can have downsides. This is especially true when it’s motivated not by the joy of learning, but by the discomfort of uncertainty and exclusion. As other research has found, for some people, curiosity can lead toward false information and conspiracy theories. When information has a sense of novelty, or a hint of being hidden by powerful elites, this can make it more appealing, even when it’s not true.

    The new study emphasises that different curiosity styles do not lead simply or universally to creativity or wellbeing. People’s contexts and circumstances vary.

    Each of us, like Goldilocks, can follow our curiosity to find not too much, not too little, but the information that is “just right”. The researchers also hint at evidence for a spectrum of new curiosity styles beyond the main three, which will surely spark more research in future.

    Stay curious and enjoy the rabbit hole

    This study also suggests ways Wikipedia (and sites like it) could better support curiosity-driven exploration. For example, rather than suggesting pages based on their popularity or similarity to other pages, Wikipedia could try showing readers their own dynamic knowledge network.

    As a Wikipedian would say, this new study is noteworthy. It shows how smaller-scale, exploratory research into people’s reading and browsing can be translated to a much larger scale across languages and cultures.

    As AI becomes more influential and the problems of misinformation grow, understanding technologies that shape our access to information – and how we use them – is more important than ever. We know YouTube recommendations can be a radicalising pipeline to extremist content, for example, and ChatGPT is largely indifferent to the truth.

    Studying Wikipedia readers reveals a rich picture of people’s freely expressed, diverse online curiosities. It shows an alternative to technologies built on narrower assumptions about what people value, how we learn, and how we want to explore online.

    Sarah Polkinghorne has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Association for Information Science & Technology, and RMIT University’s School of Global, Urban and Social Studies. She is also affiliated with the University of Alberta, and is a past president of the Canadian Association for Information Science.

    – ref. Going down a Wikipedia rabbit hole? Science says you’re one of these three types – https://theconversation.com/going-down-a-wikipedia-rabbit-hole-science-says-youre-one-of-these-three-types-242018

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning 38 of the 93 seats, Labor 26, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

    Including undecided seats where one party is ahead, it’s 49 LNP, 39 Labor, three KAP, one Green and one independent. A majority is achieved with 47 seats, so the LNP are on track for a majority.

    The statewide two-party estimate is a 53.1–46.9 win to the LNP, a 6.3% swing to the LNP since the 2020 election. Current primary votes are 40.9% LNP (up 5.7%), 33.4% Labor (down 6.6%), 10.3% Greens (up 0.7%), 7.8% One Nation (up 1.0%) and 2.3% KAP (down 0.3%).

    As pre-poll and postal votes have come in, the swing to the LNP has increased as these votes have had stronger swings to the LNP than election day votes. There are many more pre-poll and postals still to be counted, so it’s more likely that the LNP will exceed its current projections than fall below them.

    I believe the Resolve poll that gave the LNP a 53–47 lead will be the most accurate. While Labor recovered from landslide defeat margins in polls taken about the middle of this year, it wasn’t enough. The uComms poll that gave the LNP just a 51–49 lead two days before the election was poor.

    The Greens lost South Brisbane to Labor, after the LNP recommended preferences to Labor on their how-to-vote material after recommending preferences to the Greens in 2020. Analyst Kevin Bonham said this is the first time the Greens have lost a single-member seat that they won at the previous general election.

    The key reasons for Labor’s defeat were an “it’s time” factor, as Labor has governed since winning the January 2015 election, the federal Labor government tending to hurt state Labor parties, and Queensland easily being the most pro-Coalition state at the 2022 federal election.

    At that election, Queensland was the only state where the Coalition won the two-party vote (by 54.1–45.9). The second best state for the Coalition was New South Wales, where Labor won the two-party vote by 51.4–48.6.

    Labor’s defeat in Queensland will give some assistance to federal Labor. An unpopular and old Queensland Labor government would have hindered federal Labor’s prospects in Queensland at the federal election that is due by May 2025.

    Late polls

    The Newspoll and uComms poll were both released after Wednesday’s preview article on the Queensland election.

    A Newspoll, conducted October 18–24 from a sample of 1,151, had given the LNP a 52.5–57.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since a mid-September Newspoll. Primary votes were 42% LNP (steady), 33% Labor (up three), 11% Greens (down one), 8% One Nation (steady) and 6% for all Others (down two).

    Labor premier Steven Miles gained seven points for a -3 net approval, with 48% dissatisfied and 45% satisfied. LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval plunged 15 points to -3. Miles led Crisafulli by 45–42 as better premier, a reversal from a 46–39 Crisafulli lead in September.

    A uComms poll that was conducted Thursday from a sample of 3,651 using robopolling, gave the LNP a 51–49 lead. Bonham had primary votes from this poll, which was not commissioned by anyone. The primary votes were 39.3% LNP, 33.6% Labor, 12.9% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.9% KAP and 3.5% others.

    Federal Essential poll: Labor slumps and Dutton’s ratings jump

    A national Essential poll, conducted October 16–20 from a sample of 1,140, gave the Coalition a 48–46 lead including undecided (49–47 to Labor in early October). Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 28% Labor (down four), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (up one).

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved one point from September to -4, with 48% disapproving and 44% approving. He has improved six points since August. Peter Dutton’s net approval jumped six points to +6, his best in any poll this term.

    King Charles had a 50–26 approval rating. By 45–39, voters supported Australia becoming a republic (42–35 in January). On Australia’s colonial history, 26% thought it something we should be proud of, 12% something we should be ashamed of and 62% said it had both positive and negative elements.

    On the National Anti-Corruption Commission, 46% thought it is largely operating as intended but could be improved, 14% wanted it abolished and 10% said it’s successful.

    Freshwater poll: Coalition holds narrow lead

    A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted October 18–20 from a sample of 1,034, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the September Freshwater poll. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others.

    Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -14, with 49% unfavourable and 35% favourable. Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -2. Albanese was just ahead as preferred PM by 44–43 (45–41 in September).

    Asked about Albanese buying a $4.3 million house, 52% said it had no impact on their view of him, 36% said it had worsened their view and 4% improved their view.

    Cost of living remained the top issue with 72% saying it was important. The Coalition retained a 14-point lead over Labor on this issue and a 16-point lead on managing the economy.

    Morgan poll: Labor jumps ahead

    A national Morgan poll, conducted October 14–20 from a sample of 1,687, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the October 7–13 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 36.5% Coalition (down one), 32% Labor (up two), 13.5% Greens (down 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 9% independents (steady) and 3.5% others (steady).

    The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 53–47, a two-point gain for Labor.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority – https://theconversation.com/lnp-wins-queensland-election-likely-with-a-clear-majority-241918

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Promoted as a win-win, Australia’s Pacific island guest worker scheme is putting those workers at risk

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Withers, Senior Lecturer, School of Sociology, Australian National University

    The Pacific Australia Labour Mobility Scheme (PALM) has been lauded by both sides of politics as a “win win” for the islanders who come here and the Australians who use their services.

    Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs has even labelled it a “triple win”, for the workers, their hosts and for their home nations who receive remittances.

    But beneath the surface serious questions are being asked about the safety of workers denied the right to leave their employers.

    A report by the NSW Anti-slavery Commissioner entitled Be Our Guests has identified signs of debt bondage, deceptive recruiting, forced labour and, in extreme cases, servitude, sexual servitude and human trafficking.

    The NSW parliament has launched its own inquiry into the risks faced by migrant workers in response and is seeking submissions.

    Employment Minister Murray Watt this month signalled changes, saying there had been “far too many abuses of the PALM scheme”.

    PALM allows rural and regional employers to hire workers from nine Pacific nations and Timor-Leste when there are not enough local workers available.

    Unplanned pregnancies, sleeping rough

    The workers hired do not have the right to change employers while in Australia, even for contracts of up to four years, except via a request from their original employer or a direction from the Department of Employment.

    This means workers who abandon their employers for reasons including underpayment of wages, excessive deductions and overcharging for accommodation become absconders and lose their rights.

    The NSW Modern Slavery Commissioner says there are several thousand absconded PALM workers in Australia, without access to health insurance and formal income. Among them are women with unplanned pregnancies denied antenatal care due to ineligibility for Medicare.

    The Commissioner says crisis accommodation services in the NSW Riverina report having exhausted all available resources, including tents, for PALM workers who have left their employers and are sleeping rough.

    Australia had 30,805 PALM workers at the end of August, one-third of them (11,420) in Queensland. Most work in farming (52%) and 39% in meat processing. The accommodation and care industries between them account for 6%.

    For many of these workers, the income is life-changing. An I-Kiribati worker I interviewed recently told me she makes more money cleaning hotel rooms in Queensland than is paid to the president of her country.

    The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade says between July 2018 to October 2022 PALM workers sent home a total of A$184 million, but their employers made profits of $289 million and charged them a further $74 million in rent.

    Unable to switch employers, their bargaining power is weak.

    An estimated 45 workers on the PALM scheme died between June 2022 and June 2023. Nineteen deaths remain under investigation.

    After a Fijian abattoir worker died of a brain tumour in June, Fiji raised with Australia claims of racism, bullying, excessive workloads, unfair termination and unsafe working conditions under the program.

    Minimum pay, but no right to move

    Reforms introduced last year guaranteed workers a minimum of 30 hours per week and a minimum weekly take-home pay (after deductions) of $200.

    But until PALM workers are able to move freely between approved employers they will remain at risk of what the president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions Michele O’Neil calls modern-day slavery.

    O’Neil wants the government to blacklist bad employers and identify ethical ones in consultation with unions and civil society organisations. But she says until PALM workers can move, they risk being treated as disposable labour.

    Many employers treat their PALM workers well, but the current design of the scheme leaves that outcome to chance, and leaves badly-treated workers trapped.

    It’s time to give them the same sort of right to move between employers as the rest of us.

    Matt Withers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Promoted as a win-win, Australia’s Pacific island guest worker scheme is putting those workers at risk – https://theconversation.com/promoted-as-a-win-win-australias-pacific-island-guest-worker-scheme-is-putting-those-workers-at-risk-240333

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With AI translation tools so powerful, what is the point of learning a language?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elba Ramirez, Senior Lecturer and Programme Leader BA International Studies, Auckland University of Technology

    In the age of artificial intelligence (AI), foreign language learning can seem like it’s becoming obsolete. Why invest the time and effort to learn another language when technology can do it for you?

    There are now translation tools to understand song lyrics, translate websites and to enable automated captions when watching foreign videos and movies. Our phones can instantly translate spoken words.

    At the same time, foreign language programmes are closing at New Zealand and Australian universities.

    But while technology can translate messages, it misses an important component of human communication – the cultural nuances behind the words.

    So, while AI translation might bridge language barriers and promote communication because of its accessibility, it’s important to be clear about the benefits and challenges it presents. Merely relying on technology to translate between languages will ultimately lead to misunderstandings and a less rich human experience.

    The rise of translation technology

    Translation technology has rapidly grown since its emergence between the 1950s and 1960s. This progress was bolstered by the commercialisation of computer-assisted translation systems in the 1980s.

    But recent advances in generative AI have led to significant breakthroughs in translation technologies.

    Google Translate has dramatically changed since its launch in 2006. Initially developed as a limited statistical translation machine, it has evolved into a “portable interpreter”.

    AI translation is useful in some circumstances. For example, helping teachers communicate with parents who speak a different language, or when travelling.

    Translation technology may even play a role in the preservation of Indigenous and minority languages on the verge of disappearing by supporting online collections of literature. Incorporating AI-powered technology in these digital libraries can help users access and understand these texts.

    But the new technology also comes with limitations.

    In 2019, staff at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention centre in the United States used AI translation to process an asylum application. The voice-translation tool was unable to understand an applicant’s regional accent or dialect, leading to the asylum seeker spending six months in detention without being able to meaningfully communicate with anyone.

    In 2021, a court in the US determined Google Translate wasn’t reliable enough to ensure someone’s consent. A trooper had used the translation app to ask a Spanish-speaking suspect if he could search her car. Google Translate used the word “registrar” (which translates as “register” but can be used to say “examine”) when, in fact, the word “buscar” (to search) would have been more appropriate.

    Brain health and other benefits

    Learning additional languages also stands out as one of the best ways to improve ourselves, with benefits for brain health, social skills, cultural understanding, empathy and career opportunities.

    An analysis of studies from 2012 to 2019 found speaking more than one language can enhance the brain’s flexibility, delay the onset of dementia, and improve cognitive health later in life. The analysis also recommended starting language learning early.

    In 2022, the Council of Europe emphasised the significance of plurilingual and intercultural education for fostering democratic culture, noting its cognitive, linguistic and social benefits.

    And this year, the council launched the “Language education at the heart of democracy” programme. The goal is to highlight the importance of learning language for a fairer society.

    Lost in translation

    In Aotearoa New Zealand, English is widely used. Te reo Māori and New Zealand Sign Language are also recognised as official languages. Some 29% of citizens are born overseas. There are more than 150 languages spoken, with at least 24 spoken by more than 10,000 people.

    But interest in learning languages has fallen. In 2021, 980 full-time equivalent students studied a language other than Māori or New Zealand Sign Language at one of the country’s eight universities, falling from 1,555 less than a decade earlier.

    As a consequence, a number of universities have closed, or announced plans to close, their language programmes.

    While AI-powered translation technology has its uses, a great deal can be lost if we rely solely on it to communicate. The nuances of languages, and what they say about different cultures, are difficult to communicate via translation tools.

    And the benefits of being bilingual or multilingual – both personally and for the wider community – risk being lost if we don’t support second language learning.

    Elba Ramirez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. With AI translation tools so powerful, what is the point of learning a language? – https://theconversation.com/with-ai-translation-tools-so-powerful-what-is-the-point-of-learning-a-language-238068

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: From Ancient Rome to Persia, eunuchs often led armies and were powerbrokers of the ancient world

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael B. Charles, Associate Professor, Management Discipline, Faculty of Business, Arts and Law, Southern Cross University

    The person to the right of the haloed emperor is thought to be the eunuch Narses, a powerful Byzantine general. Bender235/Wikimedia

    When people think of eunuchs, someone like Lord Varys from Game of Thrones often springs to mind. Chubby, obsequious and a flatterer, he is involved in court intrigues and manipulates people and events behind the scenes.

    These traits oppose military prowess and valour endorsed by traditional models of masculinity across various times and cultures. According to those tropes, a eunuch’s weapon is the whisper, not the sword.

    In reality, not every eunuch in the ancient world was a servile, cloistered being. In fact, eunuchs sometimes led armies on campaign, and were entrusted with high-level administrative tasks.

    What was a eunuch?

    A eunuch was someone whose testicles had been deliberately crushed or excised.

    In Greek myth, Cronus (the father of Zeus) castrated his own father Uranus to overthrow his tyranny and become king of the Titans.

    Greek historians reported castration as war punishment, and persistently linked the castration of young boys to sexual slavery.

    The ancient Greek historian Herodotus stressed the demand for castrated boys at the court of the Persian kings. But the market for eunuchs was evidently larger than just the Persian court.

    The Romans replicated the Greeks’ negative view of eunuchs. They are often portrayed in Roman texts as being in the company of “bad” emperors such as the supposedly cruel and narcissistic Domitian – even though he forbade the practice of making eunuchs.

    The notion of the unmanly eunuch in antiquity was reinforced by Orientalist literature, which imagined ancient eunuchs in charge of something akin to a Turkish sultan’s harem. Unable to procreate, the eunuch is paradoxically surrounded by beautiful women, his in-between-ness granting him access to the psychological makeup of both genders.

    Orientalism drew inspiration from historical accounts written after the Greco-Persian wars, which the Greeks won in 449 BCE. These accounts were written in the shadow of Alexander the Great’s conquest of the Near East (including areas such as modern-day Iraq, Iran and Syria), which was followed by the Roman hegemony.

    Instead of critically evaluating the sources, colonial writers and their readers indulged in a world of fantasy where eunuchs offered a sensualised peek into the “secrets of the harem”.

    In fact, a deeper look at the historical record reveals that eunuchs often occupied positions of great military power and civil authority.

    Eunuchs as bodyguards, enforcers and governors

    Cyrus, the first Persian king (590–529 BCE), praised eunuchs for their reliability. He insisted that gelded men, like gelded horses, are easier to control. He believed they made up for their lack of physical strength with their loyalty.

    Cyrus may have owed his life to eunuchs, who played a role in saving him as a baby from a murderous plot by his grandfather.

    The Greek historian Herodotus also reports that eunuch-bodyguards tried to protect, albeit unsuccessfully, the man on the Persian throne just before Darius the Great took power in 522 BCE (Darius contended that this man was not a real king but an imposter).

    The historical record also mentions a Persian eunuch being in charge of a garrison at Gaza around 332 BCE.

    The Egyptian pharaoh Amasis, who reigned in the sixth century BCE, also relied on eunuchs to recover fugitive slaves.

    Eunuchs appeared in the courts of the Hittites and Assyrians (civilisations in modern-day Turkey and Iraq respectively) from the 13th century BCE.

    Assyrian kings often appointed eunuchs as provincial governors. The Assyrian king Shamshi-Adad V (who ruled Assyria 824–811 BCE) praised his chief eunuch Mutarris-Ashur as “clever and experienced in battle”. Mutarris-Ashur led the Assyrian army on a military campaign to the Nairi lands in the Armenian Highlands.

    King Ashurbanipal, who ruled the Neo-Assyrian Empire from 669 BCE to 631 BCE, sent his chief eunuch on missions against neighbouring Mannea (a kingdom in modern-day Iran) and the rebellious Gambulu tribe in ancient Babylonia.

    This Assyrian relief shows the head of a beardless royal attendant, possibly a eunuch. Eunuchs were key figures in the Assyrian court.
    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    Bagoas the eunuch

    In the fourth century BCE, there was Bagoas, a Persian court eunuch who is sometimes conflated with a eunuch lover of Alexander the Great who had the same name. Bagoas became the second most important person in the Persian court, after the Persian king.

    Bagoas had served in Persian king Artaxerxes III’s campaign against Egypt, and rose to the rank of Chiliarch (the leader of the royal infantry guard).

    Bagoas developed a reputation as a kingmaker – he was instrumental in replacing Artaxerxes III with his son, Artaxerxes IV. He later poisoned Artaxerxes IV and installed as king Darius III, who was eventually defeated by Alexander the Great.

    Bagoas had plotted to replace Darius too, but Darius outsmarted him; he forced Bagoas to drink the poison the latter had prepared for Darius to drink.

    Eunuchs in Rome

    Despite the bias of the Greco-Roman sources, including their suspicion of eastern cults that involved eunuch priests, eunuchs were important in Roman imperial service.

    The emperor Claudius rewarded his eunuch Posides for his service during Rome’s invasion of Britain in 43 CE.

    In 399 CE, the eunuch Eutropius became a powerful consul in Rome’s eastern empire under the emperor Arcadius. Some Romans, however, attacked the appointment of a semivir (half man) as consul as an abomination.

    In early Christianity, the concept of becoming a eunuch for the kingdom of God acquired currency. According to some interpretations of the Bible, being a eunuch was connected to the virtues of chastity and celibacy.

    By the sixth century CE, Byzantine eunuchs found themselves in charge of large armies. (What we now call the Byzantine Empire, or the Eastern Roman Empire, was known by its people as the Roman Empire until 1453 CE).

    Narses was a eunuch and one of the Byzantine emperor Justinian’s great generals. He managed to recapture Italy, including Rome, from the Goths (a Germanic people who had invaded Italy).

    Narses, possibly an Armenian by birth, was no armchair general. At the battle of Mons Lactarius (552 or 553 CE), Narses fought on foot with his fellow soldiers against the Goths. He encouraged his men to hang on against a brave enemy.

    Despite the stereotypes, eunuchs clearly often played important roles in the ostensibly masculine world of strategic planning and combat.

    This plurality of masculinities in the ancient Mediterranean world remains relevant to modern society as it challenges notions of a simple gender binary.

    Eva Anagnostou-Laoutides receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Gerda Henkel Foundation.

    Michael B. Charles does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From Ancient Rome to Persia, eunuchs often led armies and were powerbrokers of the ancient world – https://theconversation.com/from-ancient-rome-to-persia-eunuchs-often-led-armies-and-were-powerbrokers-of-the-ancient-world-235957

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is it possible to have a fair jury trial anymore?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Arlie Loughnan, Professor of Criminal Law, University of Sydney

    Shutterstock

    The decades-long mystery about what happened to 19-year-old Amber Haigh made it to court in New South Wales earlier this year. Those accused of murdering Haigh were found not guilty.

    Usually we don’t know precisely why someone was found guilty or not. But in this case, the reasons were given.

    This is because the trial was “judge alone”: a trial without a jury. This means the judge decides on the factual questions as well as the legal ones. And as judges are required to give reasons for their decisions, we learned what was behind the verdict, something usually hidden by the “black box” of the jury room.

    Judge alone trials are increasing in New South Wales. Moves are being made in some other Australian jurisdictions to increase access to judge alone trials.

    While it’s only possible to hold a judge alone trial in certain circumstances, and there are small numbers of such trials relative to other trials, some lawyers and judges think these trials have advantages over those with a jury.

    This is because jury trials face a lot of challenges. Some have pondered whether, in this media-saturated environment, there is such a thing as a fair jury trial. So what are these challenges, and where do they leave the time-honoured process?

    What happens in a jury trial?

    The criminal trial brings together knowledge of the facts that underpin the criminal charge. The task of the jury is to independently assess that knowledge as presented in the trial, and reach a conclusion about guilt to the criminal standard of proof: beyond reasonable doubt.

    Crucially, lay people provide legitimacy to this process, as individuals drawn from all walks of life are engaged in the decision-making around the guilt of the accused.

    The jury is therefore a fundamental part of our democracy.

    The changing trial

    For its legitimacy, the criminal trial traditionally relies on open justice, independent prosecutors and the lay jury (the “black box”), all overseen by the impartial umpire, the judge, and backed up by the appeal system.

    But these aspects of the criminal trial are being challenged by changes occurring inside and outside the courtroom.

    These challenges include high levels of media attention given to criminal justice matters.

    Another is the questioning about the way public prosecutors are using their discretion in bringing charges against individuals. This is happening in NSW, ACT and Victoria.

    There are also concerns about “junk science” being relied on Australian courtrooms. This is where unreliable or inaccurate expert evidence is introduced in trials.

    Some legal bodies are also demanding a post-appeal criminal cases review commission to prevent wrongful convictions.

    Added complexity

    It is not just juries that must come to grips with complex evidence in criminal matters. Judges and lawyers are also required to grasp intricate scientific evidence, understand new areas of expertise, and get across changing practices of validating expert knowledge.

    The difficulty of these tasks for judges and lawyers was on show in the two special inquiries into Kathleen Folbigg’s convictions for the murder of her children, held in 2019 and 2022–23. Rapid developments in genetic science, alongside other developments, came to cast doubt on the accuracy of Folbigg’s convictions. This was just a few years after the first inquiry concluded there was no reasonable doubt about her guilt.

    The challenges facing criminal trials are one dimension of much wider social and political dynamics. News and information is produced and consumed differently now. People have differing degrees of respect for scientific knowledge and expertise. Trust in authority and institutions is low.

    These factors come together in a perfect storm and pose existential questions about what criminal justice should look like now.

    What does the future look like?

    The future of criminal law and its institutions depends on their legitimacy. It’s legitimacy that gives courts the social license and power to proscribe conduct, prosecute crimes and authorise punishment. Juries are a vital piece of this picture.

    Amid the changing environment, there are things we can do to improve jury trials and in turn, safeguard and enhance their legitimacy.

    One is providing extremely careful instructions to juries to make sure jurors understand their tasks, and do not feel frustrated.

    Another is introducing higher and better standards for expert evidence. Experts testifying in court need firm guidance, especially on their use of industry jargon, to decrease chances of wrongful convictions.

    These sorts of changes might be coupled with changes in criminal laws, like enhancing laws of self-defence so they are more accessible to women in domestic violence situations.

    Together, this would help to future-proof criminal law, ready to meet the challenges of coming years and decades that we are yet to detect.

    Arlie Loughnan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is it possible to have a fair jury trial anymore? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-possible-to-have-a-fair-jury-trial-anymore-239401

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What’s at stake in elections in Georgia and Moldova this week: a stark choice between Russia and the West

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

    Two former Soviet republics have important elections this week that will likely be pivotal in their respective journeys toward tighter integration with the West against the backdrop of rising Russian influence and the Ukraine war.

    What happens in Georgia and Moldova is being closely watched across the European Union and Moscow. Russia has invested heavily in trying to influence the outcomes of both elections. If it succeeds, this will be a cause of significant concern in other ex-Soviet states, as well as the West.

    Moldova takes a tentative step towards the EU

    On Sunday, Moldovans voted in the first round of their presidential election. A referendum was also on the ballot to amend the country’s Constitution to include an aspiration to join the EU.

    Pre-election polls had suggested the referendum would easily pass and the popular pro-EU president, Maia Sandu, would be re-elected.

    However, Russia launched a significant “propaganda blitz” ahead of the vote, including credible allegations of widespread vote buying, to undermine the electoral process.

    Sandu won the first round comfortably, with over 42% of the vote, though not by enough to avoid a run-off on November 3. The country’s pro-Russia parties are now likely to coalesce behind the second-place candidate in an attempt to oust her.

    The referendum, however, teetered on the edge of failure before narrowly passing by the tightest of margins.

    Though Moldova’s negotiations with the EU were certain to continue under Sandu regardless of the outcome, the result was nonetheless concerning. It demonstrates the strength of Russia’s influence operations to destabilise a nation seen as key to security on the eastern boundaries of the EU and NATO.

    Moldova has a 1,200-kilometre border with Ukraine in the east and borders Romania, an EU and NATO member, in the west.

    Polling suggests a majority of Moldovans condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but a significant minority retain pro-Russian views.

    Russia also has a history of interference in Moldova’s sovereignty.

    Moldova declared independence in 1991 during the dissolution of the Soviet Union but Transnistria, a small part of the country along the border with Ukraine, was taken over by separatists in a military operation backed by Russian troops.

    Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe formally recognised Transnistria as Moldovan territory still occupied by Russia.

    What’s at stake in Georgia?

    On the day of Moldova’s vote, tens of thousands of pro-EU supporters staged a demonstration in Tblisi, Georgia’s capital, calling for their country to choose a pro-EU path in their own election

    The Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012 and while it remains nominally pro-EU, it has gradually shifted towards a more pro-Russia stance.

    The Georgian Dream-dominated legislature recently passed an antidemocratic, Putinesque law that requires groups receiving at least 20% of their funding from overseas to register as “agents of foreign influence”. And earlier this month, it passed a sweeping anti-LGBTQ+ bill that bans same-sex marriages, adoption by same-sex couples and changing one’s gender on identity documents.

    The EU suspended Georgia’s accession process after the foreign agents law was passed and has recently cancelled €121 million (A$196 million) in funding due to “democratic backsliding”. This month, the European Parliament also overwhelmingly adopted a resolution calling for a freeze on EU funding to Georgia until its undemocratic laws are repealed.

    The opposition parties are now working together to try to remove Georgian Dream from power, support the re-election of the current pro-EU president and return the country to the road of rapid integration with the EU.

    Polls show support for joining the EU remains very high at nearly 80%. However, as the Moldovan election demonstrates, this may not necessarily be reflected in the vote on election day.



    Read more:
    ‘We do not want to be like Russia’: a first-hand account of Georgia’s fight for democracy

    Russian interference

    Russia has long meddled in its southern neighbour. After an invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russian troops supported two pro-Russian breakaway republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as they had done in Transnistria.

    Russia has now established military bases in both regions, as well as a new naval base in Abkhazia to serve as a permanent base for parts of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

    These incursions set the stage for Russia’s invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. As the post-Soviet Baltic states have argued, the lack of an adequate response from the West to these invasions set the stage for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Georgians are understandably concerned that Russia may invade their country again. Polls suggest two-thirds of people support joining NATO.

    There are concerns that Saturday’s election could also be tainted. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe issued a declaration earlier this month, saying there are “alarming reports” indicating the Russian-backed Georgian Dream party might be “preparing to steal” the election.

    The report accused the ruling party of a “massive intimidation campaign” against opposition candidates and their supporters, including physical attacks. It also said the Central Election Commission has apparently been brought under the control of Georgian Dream.

    The opposition and civil society groups claimed electoral fraud after the 2020 elections, which resulted in mass protests and a political crisis when the opposition boycotted parliament.

    Why these elections matter

    These elections in Georgia and Moldova are crucial for reinforcing democratic rights in vulnerable former Soviet states. Any outcome that shifts their trajectory towards Russia will likely result in increased repression of both minorities, including the LGTBQ+ community, and the political opposition.

    Wins by pro-Russian candidates and parties – legitimate or otherwise – will also drive greater military and economic integration with Russia. Despite popular support in both countries for joining NATO, wins by Russian-backed candidates will likewise undermine support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

    While it looks like pro-EU results might have squeaked through in Moldova, the elections in Georgia are potentially more hazardous for European relations.

    The stakes in both elections could not be higher.

    Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What’s at stake in elections in Georgia and Moldova this week: a stark choice between Russia and the West – https://theconversation.com/whats-at-stake-in-elections-in-georgia-and-moldova-this-week-a-stark-choice-between-russia-and-the-west-240675

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: I have hay fever. How can I tell what I’m allergic to?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ryan Mead-Hunter, Senior lecturer, School of Population Health, Curtin University

    Kaboompics.com/Pexels

    When we think of spring we think of warming weather, birdsong and flowers. But for many people, this also means the return of their seasonal hay fever symptoms.

    Around 24% of Australians get hay fever, with sneezing, a runny or blocked nose, and itchy or watery eyes the most common symptoms. In severe cases, this may impact sleep and concentration, or be linked to increased frequency of sinus infections.

    The exact timing of the symptoms depends on your exposure to an allergen – the thing you’re allergic to. Those impacted by tree pollen (from plane trees or cypress pine, for example) may experience symptoms at different times of the year than those impacted by grass pollen (such as rye grass). This will also vary around the country.

    In Perth, for example, tree pollen (cypress pine) is generally present in August to October, while grass pollen counts tend to be highest in October to November. Other cities and regions may have longer pollen seasons, which may extend further into summer.

    Remind me, how does hay fever impact the body?

    What we know colloquially as hay fever is called allergic rhinitis. Exposure to a specific allergen (or allergens) triggers an immune response in the body. This leads to inflammation and swelling of the tissue lining the nasal passages in the nose.

    A range of allergens may trigger such a response: pollen (from trees, grass or weeds), dust mites, pet fur, dander, mould and some air pollutants.

    Those with allergies that are only present for part of the year, such as pollen, experience what we call seasonal hay fever, while those with allergies that may be present at any time, such as dust mites and pet dander, experience perennial hay fever.

    Getting a diagnosis

    Many people with hay fever self-manage their symptoms by limiting exposure to allergens and using over-the-counter antihistamines and steroid nasal sprays.

    But this may require assistance from your GP and confirmation that what you’re experiencing is hay fever. Your GP can assess your symptoms and medical history, provide a diagnosis, and help with treating and managing your symptoms.

    Your GP may also be able help you identify potential allergens, based on when you experience symptoms and the environments to which you’re exposed.

    If symptoms persist, your GP may suggest allergy testing. They may refer you to a specialist called an immunologist, to determine what particular allergen is causing your symptoms, using skin prick tests or blood tests. Tests typically involve controlled exposure to small quantities of suspected allergens.

    But note, there are a number of tests marketed online that are unproven and not recommended by reputable bodies.

    How else can I work out what I’m allergic to?

    For those with seasonal hay fever, resources are available to help manage exposures, based on the flowering seasons for common allergy-related species or through pollen forecasting services.

    The Australian Society of Clinical Immunology and Allergy provides a useful pollen guide for each species and when they’re most likely to cause symptoms, broken down for each state and territory.

    Pollen monitoring and forecasting services – such as Perth Pollen, Melbourne Pollen and Sydney Pollen, as well as for other cities – can help you plan outdoor activities.

    There are also associated phone apps for these services, which can give notifications when the pollen count is high. You can down load these apps (such as AirRater, Perth Pollen, Melbourne Pollen and Sydney Pollen) from your preferred app store.

    Apps such as AirRater also allow you to enter information about your symptoms, which can then be matched to the environmental conditions at the time (pollen count, temperature, smoke, and so on).

    Using statistical modelling, the app may be able to establish a link between symptoms and exposure. If a sufficiently high correlation is established, the app can send you notifications when the exposure risk is high. This may prompt you to limit outdoor activities and have any medication readily available.

    Further information about managing allergic rhinitis is available from healthdirect and Allergy and Anaphylaxis Australia

    Ryan Mead-Hunter receives funding from the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (WA) and the NHMRC. He is part of the Perth Pollen team.

    – ref. I have hay fever. How can I tell what I’m allergic to? – https://theconversation.com/i-have-hay-fever-how-can-i-tell-what-im-allergic-to-240450

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: From Camilla to the ‘ugly’ Elizabeth of Austria: a problematic history of obsessing over royal women’s looks

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University

    Elizabeth of Austria and Casimir IV of Poland in the woodcut from the Łaski Statute. Archiwum Główne Akt Dawnych

    Throughout history, queens have often been judged on their looks. Beauty standards shaped early-modern queenship. Even today, royal women such as the UK royal family’s Camilla, Catherine and Meghan are scrutinised for their looks, while their male counterparts aren’t held to the same standard.

    One woman who faced particular scrutiny for her looks was Elizabeth of Austria (1436/37–1505). Known as the “mother of kings”, Elizabeth married Casimir IV of Poland and had 13 children, securing the Jagiellon dynasty’s future. Yet she is still remembered for her supposed lack of beauty.

    This obsession with her appearance overlooks what really mattered for queens in her time: fertility, motherhood, political alliances and dynastic stability.

    Beauty versus duty

    Elizabeth was a powerful queen consort of Poland who played a significant role in European politics. Yet for centuries, she has been chiefly labelled as unattractive. This narrative likely began as early as 50 years after her death, with commentators focusing on her supposed ugliness.

    But the foundation for these claims is shaky, at best. Medieval chroniclers, such as Jan Długosz, who documented the lives of Polish rulers and their families, made no mention of Elizabeth’s appearance.

    This omission is significant as Długosz often commented on the beauty, or lack thereof, of other royal women. The absence of such remarks in Elizabeth’s case suggests her physical appearance was not a matter of public concern during her lifetime.

    Later chroniclers such as Maciej of Miechów (1457–1523) and Marcin Bielski (1495–1575), who drew heavily from Długosz, also failed to comment on Elizabeth’s looks, further underscoring the lack of focus on her beauty.

    In 1548, Polish nobleman Andrzej Górka alleged in a rhetorical speech that King Casimir IV was disappointed by Elizabeth’s appearance and considered breaking off their engagement. Górka claimed the king expressed doubts about the impending marriage because of Elizabeth’s lack of beauty – and the only thing that persuaded him to wed was a sense of duty.

    However, Górka’s speech took place almost a century after the actual events. It was delivered in a political context where the goal was to influence Casimir’s grandson not to marry for love.

    This saga mirrors a well-known English story involving Henry VIII and Anne of Cleves. In 1540, Henry, eager to meet his new bride, rode in disguise to surprise her. The meeting didn’t go as planned. Henry’s disappointment in Anne’s appearance became notorious and the marriage was speedily annulled.

    Both of these stories reflect the pressure queens faced to meet idealistic beauty standards, often with serious consequences. Henry’s judgement of Anne based on her looks altered the course of their marriage and, by extension, future political alliances. His behaviour reinforced the idea that a queen’s worth was tied to her physical appearance, overshadowing her political or dynastic significance.

    Elizabeth as the ‘ugly queen’

    The primary role of a queen in early-modern Europe was to provide heirs and secure political alliances through marriage. Beauty was arguably not the most important factor.

    This 1454 painting depicts the marriage of Elizabeth of Austria to Casimir IV of Poland.
    Wikimedia

    Elizabeth of Austria’s marriage to Casimir IV of Poland was about strengthening ties between the Habsburg and Jagiellon dynasties, not about physical attraction. Of Elizabeth’s 13 children, several went on to become kings and queens across Europe. Her ancestry and status as a mother were the basis of her political influence – far more valuable than her looks.

    Around 1502, in anticipation of the birth of her grandchild, Elizabeth commissioned a treatise to provide practical advice on raising a future ruler. She believed a royal child should embody values, attitudes and behaviours befitting a future monarch.

    However, as history shows, the perception of a queen’s beauty could still end up influencing her legacy. While Elizabeth’s contemporaries didn’t seem to care about her appearance, later generations did.

    The myth of Elizabeth’s unattractiveness gained traction primarily after a 1973 investigation into the royal tombs at the Wawel Cathedral in Kraków. Skeletal remains identified as belonging to Elizabeth showed facial deformities, reinforcing the myth. However, there’s no solid proof these bones were even hers, and the findings have since been questioned.

    Nonetheless, the idea that a queen had to be beautiful to be politically capable took hold over time. Even though Elizabeth helped secure the future of one of Europe’s most powerful dynasties, her legacy is clouded by a narrative focused on her appearance.

    Royal beauty standards today

    Royal women in the 21st century continue to be haunted by the same narratives that plagued Anne of Cleves and Elizabeth of Austria. Queen Camilla, for instance, has been criticised for her looks throughout her public life, especially in comparison to the late Princess Diana.

    Kate Middleton and Meghan Markle also face intense media scrutiny over their appearance, with headlines dissecting everything from their fashion choices to their weight. Queen Mary of Denmark, Princess Charlene of Monaco and Queen Letizia of Spain face similar scrutiny.

    Sure, queens were and are aware of this. Many even weaponised beauty, ritual and fashion for their own gain. Cleopatra did this to hold onto power in ancient Egypt, and Marie Antoinette to protect herself from the hostile French court.

    A circa 1774 portrait of Marie Antoinette.
    Marie Antoinette, with her extravagant dresses, became as renowned for her fashion as her scandalous behaviour.
    British Museum, CC BY-NC-SA

    Elizabeth I’s reign in England gave rise to a concept of “Elizabethan beauty”, characterised by pale skin and rosy lips and cheeks. And the late Elizabeth II understood the need to dress the part.

    By reducing royal women to their looks – or framing them as fashion icons – we fail to reckon with their individual characters and influence in the world. Meanwhile, men such as King Charles, King Frederick of Denmark and King Felipe of Spain are more likely to be judged by their virility, actions and policies.

    Should beauty really matter when it comes to royal women? Shouldn’t we be more interested in their contributions to history, politics and society?

    It’s time to shift the conversation away from appearance and focus on what matters: the impact these women have on the world. Like their male counterparts, they are crucial figures in shaping history and politics, so we ought to think carefully about how we judge them.

    The Conversation

    Darius von Guttner Sporzynski receives funding from the National Science Centre, Poland as a partner investigator in the grant “Polish queen consorts in the 15th and 16th centuries as wives and mothers” (2021/43/B/HS3/01490).

    Magdalena Biniaś-Szkopek receives funding from the National Science Centre, Poland, as the principal investigator in the grant “Polish queen consorts in the 15th and 16th centuries as wives and mothers” (2021/43/B/HS3/01490).

    Robert Tomczak receives funding from the National Science Centre, Poland, as a post-doctoral fellow in the grant “Polish queen consorts in the 15th and 16th centuries as wives and mothers” (2021/43/B/HS3/01490).

    – ref. From Camilla to the ‘ugly’ Elizabeth of Austria: a problematic history of obsessing over royal women’s looks – https://theconversation.com/from-camilla-to-the-ugly-elizabeth-of-austria-a-problematic-history-of-obsessing-over-royal-womens-looks-241674

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bringing the river into the gallery and the future: reimagining Birrarung 50 years from now

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Crosby, Associate Professor, School of Design, University of Technology Sydney

    Postcards from the future: the river-cleaning Birrabot REALMstudios/NGV Australia

    The Ian Potter Centre at Melbourne’s Federation Square is located on the banks of the lower stretches of Birrarung, the Yarra River. For Reimagining Birrarung Design Concepts for 2070, on until 2 February 2025, the river flows into the gallery through ideas, images, objects and stories.

    In this bold and unusual exhibition, we listen to traditional owners and get inside the imaginations of eight of Australia’s most innovative landscape architecture studios. By looking at “possible” and “preferred” futures, this exhibition frames the river as a complex, diverse, interconnected ecosystem that nurtures our health and is essential to human and non-human communities.

    Urban rivers are being rethought internationally. In Australian cities, where big city rivers are often estuaries, the problems of waterways and wetlands are inseparable from colonisation and urbanisation. The fate of these cities as the climate heats up is tied to their rivers.

    Melbourne was established in 1835 at the lower stretches of Birrarung where salt water from Port Phillip Bay travels about 10 kilometres upstream. Now metropolitan Melbourne dominates and influences the landscape of its lower reaches.

    Rivers are Country

    Entering the gallery, we are invited to listen to Birrarung. The river’s voice is spoken by Uncle Dave Wandin, Wurundjeri Woi Wurrung Elder and Birrarung Council member. Originally commissioned by the 23rd Biennale of Sydney,
    the video portrait provides an important transition from the bustle of Melbourne, into the contemplative space of the exhibition.

    Many will know the river as the Yarra, or Yarra Yarra – but this was a mistranslation by a surveyor in the 1830s of another Aboriginal word Yarro Yarro, “it flows”.

    The misnamed river has suffered from disconnection from its traditional owners and severe environmental degradation.

    In 2017, the Yarra River Protection (Wilip-gin Birrarung murron) Act was passed by the Parliament of Victoria, to protect the river for future generations and to recognise the river and its lands as a single living and integrated entity. Uncle Dave Wandin is a member of the Birrarung Council, appointed to work with Wurundjeri Woi Wurrung Elders and communities, to provide independent advice to the government on the implementation of the Act.

    Barracco and Wright’s contribution to the exhibition builds on the impact of this legislation. Speculative Policies displayed as an historic document from the future in a 2035 cabinet.

    Installation view of McGregor Coxall’s design for reimagining Birrarung.
    NGV Australia/Photo: Sean Fennessy

    Colonial histories

    Thinking about legislation in future worlds helps remind us the challenges of urban rivers – pollution, storm water management, and flooding – have colonial histories.

    Waterways have long been treated as dumping grounds for Australia’s industrial progress.

    In their work Aqua Nullius, not-for-profit multidisciplinary design and research practice OFFICE points to viticulture (winegrowing) and golf courses as culprits of water extraction in the Birrarung catchment.

    The problems arise not only where water is redirected as a resource for elites, but also where the connections between waterways and wetlands are disrupted by roads, estates and colonial land use. Billabongs are cut off from their sources and creeks are converted to drains. Wildlife such as turtles, platypus and birds lose their habitat corridors.

    Terra Nullius is well known as the concept that shaped colonists approach to Australia. Aqua Nullius, OFFICE argue, is just as significant. Rivers are country – and need to be respected, cared for and healed.

    Designers from OFFICE assert the Terra Nullius concept applies to water too.
    NGV Australia/OFFICE

    Seeing like a landscape architect

    By combining ecological knowledge with architectural forms, landscape architects are often leading these goals alongside Aboriginal people. While many of Melbourne’s residents and visitors enjoy the outcomes of their designs in city parks and green infrastructure, landscape architects are rarely the focus of exhibitions in major art galleries. This exhibition shows how design projects can invite us to imagine urban rivers differently using a range of tools that bring life to possible futures.

    In this exhibition we see images, maps, models, flags, plans, animations, timelines, and even a uniform design for a future “bio-zone guide”.

    The Birrarung Catchment by McGregor Coxall projects an animated map at waist height. It shows us the past, present and potential future of the catchment, highlighting the evolution of Birrarung’s lands, health, waterways, and its relationship to people.

    Presented as a map that shifts over time, the table top animation shares a rhythm with two screens on the wall, one with a population counter and one with the changes of flow within the catchment. These three elements link the growth of urban population to the disruption of the rivers flow. Dealing with Melbourne’s anticipated population growth, the projection looks forward in time proposing ways to care for the river by establishing the Great Birrarung Parkland.

    What’s good for Birrarung …

    Not all rivers are created equal. Melbourne is a river city, planned, designed, built and managed around Birrarung.

    A short walk from the gallery, rowers launch into the river and lovers hold hands on its banks. Melbourne is Birrarung and we can see it as we move around the city. But all cities have waterways and wetlands, many less visible.

    Place-based approaches to caring for urban water is needed everywhere. And this can have flow-on effects. If we start to care for minor creeks and estuaries that are built over and forgotten, we understand connections between people, nature, water and Country. This exhibition shows those visions for the future require research, vision and political will.

    Reimagining Birrarung: Design Concepts for 2070 is on until 2 February 2025 at The Ian Potter Centre: NGV Australia. Free admission.

    Alexandra Crosby receives funding from the Australian Research Council

    – ref. Bringing the river into the gallery and the future: reimagining Birrarung 50 years from now – https://theconversation.com/bringing-the-river-into-the-gallery-and-the-future-reimagining-birrarung-50-years-from-now-239499

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Are academics more likely to answer emails from ‘Melissa’ or ‘Rahul’? The answer may not surprise you

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Megan MacKenzie, Professor and Simons Chair in International Law and Human Security, Simon Fraser University

    Onehundredseventyfive/Unsplash, CC BY

    Universities are supposed to be places where all students can learn, free from discrimination.

    A key part of this ideal is academics welcoming all students to study and research, regardless of their racial background.

    But as our new research shows, Australian academics responded differently to potential PhD students, depending on whether they were called “Melissa” or “Rahul”.

    Racism on campus

    Many overseas and Australian studies have shown racism is both a historical and ongoing problem for universities.

    A 2020 Australian study showed universities tend to be run by older, white men. A 2021 UK study showed academics from different cultural backgrounds face racism at work.

    But there has been less specific attention paid to those trying to become academics.

    The main way people start an academic career is via a doctoral degree. In the Australian system, before a student is accepted they usually require an established academic to agree to supervise them. So a student’s initial communication with a potential supervisor is very important.

    To start a PhD, students usually need to have a supervisor lined up.
    Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

    How we set up our research

    To investigate whether racism is playing a role at the entrance point to PhD study, in 2017 we sent about 7,000 emails from fictitious students to academics based at the main campuses of Australia’s Group of Eight universities (billed as Australia’s top research universities).

    These are the Australian National University, Monash University, University of Adelaide, University of New South Wales, University of Melbourne, University of Sydney, University of Western Australia and University of Queensland.

    We emailed staff ranked senior lecturer or above, as these are the levels most likely to be supervising PhD students. Academics were identified by university websites, and we sent emails to everyone who fit our rank criteria across all disciplines.

    In this process, we found 70% of relevant academics were male and 84% were white. This did not improve in the more senior ranks – more than 68% of professors were white men.

    What did the email say?

    The emails asked for an meeting to talk about potential PhD supervision.

    They were identical apart from the senders’ names. These names were tested to be associated with male and female and with white-European, Indigenous, South Asian, Chinese and Arab identities. Recipients were randomly allocated to different name groups.

    The emails indicated the sender was an Australia-based student with fluent English. It conveyed an interest in the recipient’s research and urgency in meeting because the sender was only on campus for several days. It also noted “I have recently finished my honours degree” (a common path into a PhD in Australia) and was sent from a University of Sydney email address.

    We emailed about 7,000 senior academics as part of our study.
    Tipa Patt/Shutterstock

    What did we find?

    Responses agreeing to a meeting or requesting further information were categorised as “positive”. Those who declined a meeting were “non-positive”. Automated replies and those who did not reply were “non-responses”.

    Of 6,928 emails sent, 2,986 (43.1%) received a reply within 24 hours and 2,469 (35.6%) received a positive reply. There were 3,942 (56.9%) non-responses and 517 (7.5%) non-positive responses (declining a meeting).

    We initially planned to give academics a week to respond, but after IT at one university noticed several staff had received emails with identical text, we ended the experiment after 24 hours.

    From here, the results were stark: emails from names associated with non-white racial groups received significantly fewer responses and positive replies than those from names typically associated with white individuals.

    An email from “Melissa Smith” was far more likely to get a positive response than an identical email from “Grace Chen Jinyan” (six percentage points lower) or “Omar al-Haddad” (nine percentage points lower).

    The most dramatic gap was in the positive response rates to Melissa Smith, compared with “Rahul Kumar”. The rate of positive responses to Melissa was 12 percentage points higher than for Rahul.

    Overall, our statistical analysis showed the white-sounding names averaged a 7% higher reply rate and a 9% higher positive response rate than the non-white sounding names. Both these findings were highly statistically significant, meaning we can be very confident the results were not due to chance.

    Of course, some faculty members may simply have been unable to meet with the student, or may have missed the email. However, given the randomisation used, it is reasonable to assume bias explains the gap in responses to students with different names.

    This is alarming because it suggests racial bias is quietly influencing who gets a foot in the door of academia even before formal admissions processes begin.

    Silver linings

    One seemingly positive finding was academics at the more junior end of our study group appeared to show less bias towards students of different backgrounds.

    For academics at senior lecturer or associate professor levels, Melissa was 10.5% more likely to receive a positive response than Rahul, while the corresponding figure for full professors was 14.7%.

    However, junior academics often have little institutional power or much of a say on hiring. More research is needed to explore whether generational change is achievable (albeit painfully slow).

    We also found that, unlike similar US studies, there was no significant bias against female students. In fact, there was some evidence of positive bias, or preference, for female students.

    Our study found academics did not discriminate against potential candidates based on gender.
    Matej Kastelic/ Shutterstock

    Backlash to our study

    We based our study on a peer-reviewed study carried out in the United States, and followed a research ethics protocol approved by our university.

    However, minutes after academics received our follow-up email telling them they had been part of a research study (part of our ethics protocol), the backlash began.

    The University of Sydney, our home institution at the time, received more than 500 inquiries about the study. While some were curious or supportive, the majority were complaints. These were primarily about our use of deception (a well-researched and supported method of studying bias). Megan MacKenzie, the more junior author (at the time a senior lecturer), received calls threatening her with consequences for her career.

    Although unpleasant, the reaction was revealing. It reinforces other research on how defensive racial majorities can be when they believe they are suspected of bias. It also complements work showing internal resistance to diversity efforts in higher education.

    What can we do?

    Universities pride themselves on being meritocracies, where the best ideas and brightest minds rise to the top. But our study suggests racial bias is undermining this principle by influencing who is even considered for an academic career.

    There is growing acknowledgement racism is a significant problem on Australian university campuses (as well as in broader society). In May, the federal government asked the Australian Human Rights Commission to study the prevalence and impact of racism at Australian universities.

    But this study is not due to deliver its final report until June 2025, and any ensuing action will be further away still.

    What can be done now to tackle this issue?

    First, universities need to acknowledge academia remains overwhelmingly white and male, in spite of efforts to increase diversity.

    Second, universities also need to acknowledge the existence of racial bias, the need for ongoing research into how it operates in higher education and the most effective strategies to tackle it.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Are academics more likely to answer emails from ‘Melissa’ or ‘Rahul’? The answer may not surprise you – https://theconversation.com/are-academics-more-likely-to-answer-emails-from-melissa-or-rahul-the-answer-may-not-surprise-you-241352

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Where there’s smoke: the rising death toll from climate-charged fire in the landscape

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fay Johnston, Professor, Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania

    Daria Nipot, Shutterstock

    Inhaling smoke is bad for you. Smoke from any kind of fire, from bonfire to burn-off to uncontrolled wildfire, can have serious consequences.

    Even low levels of smoke can make many heart and lung diseases worse, sometimes triggering a rapid deterioration in health. When we are repeatedly exposed over months and years, air pollution, including smoke, makes us more likely to develop heart, lung and other chronic diseases.

    Now, new international research has linked the warming climate to some of the deaths from exposure to fire smoke in large parts of the world, including Australia.

    In 2012, I led the first team to estimate the number of landscape fire smoke-related deaths globally each year. Our estimate of 339,000 deaths did not attempt to pull out the influence of climate change. But we noticed much higher impacts during hotter and drier El Niño periods.

    The researchers behind the new study took this a step further, estimating how much of the historical burden of fire smoke-related deaths might be attributable to climate change. They found a considerably increasing proportion, from 1.2% in the 1960s to 12.8% in the 2010s.

    Where there’s fire, there’s smoke

    A wall of flames is way more deadly than a bit of smoke in the air – isn’t it? It’s not so simple. When you look back at a fire disaster, the smoke-related death toll in the aftermath can be surprisingly high.

    During the extreme Australian bushfire season of 2019–20, there were 33 deaths directly related to fire. But my team found the number of smoke-related deaths was 429, more than ten times higher.

    Smoke travels vast distances and can affect very large populations. Millions of people in Australia and New Zealand breathed smoke from the 2019-20 Australian fires. The sheer scale of the air quality impacts means the associated public health burden can be very large.

    Smoke harms our health in two ways. In the short term, it makes existing diseases worse. As soon as the body detects smoke, it initiates immune and stress responses that affect, among other things, blood pressure, blood glucose and the risk of forming blood clots.

    For some people with serious chronic illness such as heart and blood vessel disease, these subtle changes can trigger deadly complications including heart attacks or strokes.

    When smoke reaches our eyes, throats and lungs, it acts as an irritant. This can be enough to make people living with asthma or other lung conditions seriously unwell.

    Over the longer term, air pollution is a known risk factor for developing heart disease, lung disease, asthma, diabetes and stroke, and landscape fire smoke is increasingly contributing to the load.

    How did the researchers find this out?

    Most research on the health impact from air pollution focuses on the damage done by fine particles called PM2.5. These particles are defined as those less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter, meaning they are small enough to get into the lungs and bloodstream.

    In the new paper, the authors used computer models to estimate how global changes in fire-related PM2.5 emissions between 1960 and 2019 had been influenced by the warming climate. To do this, they evaluated climate factors known to promote fire activity, such as higher air temperatures and lower humidity. Then, they used modelling to estimate how these changes would have influenced fire activity, smoke exposure and smoke related deaths globally.

    Using this approach, the authors attributed 669 (1.2%) of the wildfire-induced smoke-related deaths in the 1960s to climate change. But that rose to 12,566 (12.8%) in the 2010s. They found the influence of climate change was higher in some regions, including Australia.

    Climate change is making fires worse

    These reported numbers seem to be surprisingly low when put in context with previous global and regional estimates of deaths due to air pollution from landscape fires.

    But estimating how many deaths can be attributed to landscape fire smoke is a challenging task, requiring assumptions about the size and strength of the links between meteorology, fire activity, smoke production and dispersal, population vulnerability and health outcomes in the huge diversity of landscapes, climates and cultures across the world.

    Importantly, the estimates in this recent study were driven by changes in climate. But the modelling approach can less easily account for fluctuations and trends in another incredibly important driver of fire activity on Earth, human activity.

    For example, huge volumes of smoke globally are created by setting fires to burn and clear tropical forests for agriculture. Corporate activity and government policies drive these fires more than climate change, and are harder to capture in a modelling study.

    Nevertheless, these new results clearly support empirical studies showing increases in extreme fire activity attributable to climate change, and illustrates the relative impacts when other influences are held constant. Importantly, it points to parts of the world – including the north and southeast of Australia – where we can expect harmful population smoke impacts to get worse.

    The likely geographic impacts can be put together with information about the location of more vulnerable population groups, or higher population densities, to focus on responses where they are most needed. But in Australia that means pretty much everywhere, including the tropical north.

    What we can do about it?

    To adapt to a smokier world, we will need comprehensive education about escalating air quality hazards and ways to reduce the harm for both the general public and health professionals.

    These include keeping on top of long-term health conditions that could be made worse by air pollution, knowing how to keep track of air quality, and when to use strategies such as face masks, air filtration and managing the ventilation of homes and buildings to reduce individual smoke exposure.

    Adaptive responses alone do not get around the urgent need to act on climate change. Watching fire seasons around the world get steadily worse year on year really frightens me. We are getting into a vicious cycle where the hotter climate is driving more and more fire. These fires are increasingly venting long-stored carbon and contributing to further climate change.

    As well as ending the massive combustion of fossil fuels, we must halt the burning of tropical rainforests and agricultural crop residues globally. These actions will also dramatically improve air quality and health globally and support ongoing capture and storage of atmospheric carbon.

    Fay Johnston receives research funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program, Asthma Australia and the health departments of the Tasmanian and ACT governments. She led the development of the air quality app AirRater, and is a founding director of AirHealth Pty Ltd, which provides air quality information services.

    – ref. Where there’s smoke: the rising death toll from climate-charged fire in the landscape – https://theconversation.com/where-theres-smoke-the-rising-death-toll-from-climate-charged-fire-in-the-landscape-241590

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Donald Trump and Peter Dutton have both embraced populism. Are working-class voters buying it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has often been accused of copying former US President Donald Trump’s tactics. Some analysts even refer to Dutton, like Trump, as a “populist” who seeks political gain by pitting ordinary citizens against corrupt “elites”.

    There is evidence of this populism in the willingness of Trump, Dutton and other figures in their parties to attack “big business”.

    This is unusual for the conservative parties, and it has alarmed business-aligned outlets like the Wall Street Journal and the Australian Financial Review.

    Republicans and Liberals have always preferred to identify with small business rather than big business. Their relationship with corporate interests has not always been smooth.

    But they do not believe there is a natural conflict between business and workers, or between different sections of the economy. And they usually align with big business on the critical issues of taxation and government regulation.

    So Dutton’s declaration earlier this year that the Liberal Party is “not the party of big business” but “the friend of the worker” marks a notable rhetorical shift, even if there is reason to doubt the substance behind it.

    It mirrors a similar shift to pro-worker rhetoric among leading Republicans. Florida Senator Marco Rubio said in 2020, for instance, the future of the Republican Party is based on “a multiethnic, multiracial, working-class coalition”.

    Expanding their share of the working-class vote may be necessary for both parties, given their losses of tertiary-educated, middle-class voters and seats in recent elections. Economic populism may be one path to do it.

    But how economically populist can conservative parties get in either country?

    Why attack big business?

    A lot of Republican and Liberal attacks on big business are fundamentally cultural rather than economic.

    Publicly-owned corporations have embraced diversity, equity and inclusion policies. They declare commitments to “sustainability”. And plenty of them have backed causes like marriage equality, Black Lives Matter and the Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

    However cosmetic these gestures are, many conservatives see major corporations as culturally hostile to them. More importantly, they no longer see big business and finance as reliable political backers.

    And they don’t need them like they once did. Dynastic wealth in both countries has seen the ascendancy of private companies owned by super-rich individuals and families. These, not corporate donors, are now the most consistent sources of financial and political support for conservative parties.

    These changing conditions have given Republicans and Liberals a free hand to make big business – never a popular entity – into a target of populist campaigns.

    Many of their attacks are about “wokeness”. But not all. Consumer protection has also become an opportune theme, given the cost of living crisis in both the United States and Australia.

    Trump, for instance, has floated capping credit card interest rates at 10%. Dutton has proposed using the government’s divestiture powers to break up supermarket and hardware chains that are accused of using their monopoly power to exploit consumers and suppliers.

    They can propose these ideas because voters usually trust the Republican and Liberal parties more than their opponents on economic issues. Most Democratic and Labor politicians would be unwilling to take populist measures that far because of their perennial fears of being seen as economically irresponsible.

    But when it comes to actually siding with workers over business, a different picture emerges.

    The Republican romance with ‘union workers’

    As president, Trump had a notably anti-union record. His appointees to the National Labor Relations Board, which enforces labour law, consistently ruled against unions.

    In Trump’s current campaign to re-enter the White House, unions have criticised him for holding a rally appealing to “union workers” at a non-union shop, and for praising tech billionaire Elon Musk because he sacked workers who threatened to strike.

    Trump also said recently that as a business owner he hated paying overtime. He has also previously said he preferred to use non-union workforces.

    Despite all this, the Trump campaign is making a serious play for the votes of unionised workers, who could be critical in Midwestern battleground states.

    Although unions as organisations usually support Democrats, the number of voters in union households who support Republicans is sometimes more than 40%.

    This year, Trump sought the endorsement of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the North American truck drivers’ union with 1.3 million members. The Teamsters have supported Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 2000, but prior to that, the organisation had also backed Republican candidates like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush.

    This year, the Teamsters did not join most other unions in quickly endorsing Democratic incumbent Joe Biden before he stepped aside for Vice President Kamala Harris.

    The Teamsters’ president, Sean O’Brien, almost got into a fight with a Republican senator in a committee hearing in 2023 after calling him a “greedy CEO who acts like he’s self-made”. Nonetheless, he got an invitation to speak at this year’s Republican National Convention. He praised Trump as a “tough SOB”, but then blasted various businesses and business organisations for being anti-union, to the discomfort of the audience.

    Teamsters President Sean O’Brien addressing the Republican National Convention.

    The Teamsters ultimately endorsed neither candidate. However, they released polling showing nearly 60% of their members supported Trump compared to a third for Harris.

    Trump-era Republicans frequently praise “union workers” rather than actual unions. When Senators JD Vance (now Trump’s running mate) and Josh Hawley supported the striking United Auto Workers last year, they criticised the union’s leadership. But they are happy to be seen as being on the side of unionised workers against big businesses who send manufacturing jobs overseas, a trend Trump promises to reverse.

    The term “union workers” prompts conservative nostalgia, especially for a group like the Teamsters with their mostly male membership and reputation for toughness. It evokes the anti-communist, blue-collar workers of the 1960s and ‘70s who supported Nixon and brawled in the streets with college-educated anti-Vietnam War protesters.

    That is not the only nostalgic element. Through heavily protectionist measures, Trump is promising to restore millions of manufacturing jobs to the United States – the kinds of jobs that used to be largely unionised. He also promises to roll back environmental regulations to expand mining, drilling and fracking on federal land. Again, these are the kinds of jobs often associated with “union workers”.

    When Trump and others praise “union workers”, they are not really talking about unions, but a certain type of blue-collar job they are promising to create and protect. “Union” in this context has the positive connotation of well-paid, stable work.

    But Trump claims it is his policies that will guarantee these jobs, making unions themselves virtually irrelevant.

    Where Liberals won’t follow

    Dutton may praise workers, but he is unlikely to add the prefix “union” anytime soon. It is hard to imagine any Liberal leader courting the support of a union because Australia’s party system effectively enshrines the country’s adversarial industrial relations system in its politics.

    The Australian Labor Party began as the parliamentary wing of the union movement, and to this day affiliated unions are entitled to 50% of delegates at party conferences. American unions are not linked to the Democratic Party in the same way.

    This does not mean the votes of union members are off-limits to other parties. In 2006, then-economist (now Labor MP) Andrew Leigh estimated about a third of union members voted for the Coalition on a two party-preferred basis from 1966 to 2004. But Liberals will not appeal to these voters as “union workers” in the same way Republicans do.

    Trump’s dream of restoring American manufacturing dominance would involve a resurgence of long-term employment in large and medium-sized firms. He is promising the stability once associated with unions, not the “flexibility” that Australia’s Liberals want in workplaces.

    For the most part, Liberals still prefer to talk about blue-collar workers as independent tradespeople or aspiring business owners rather than employees.

    Dutton says the modern Liberal Party is the friend of “small business owners and employees in that business”. This conjures images of family-like operations where staff loyally put in unpaid overtime – instead of larger, impersonal workplaces (where unpaid overtime is also the norm).

    And unlike Trump Republicans, the Liberal and National parties still believe in free trade. After a long bipartisan opposition to protectionism, Labor has recently embraced a major new industrial policy. The Coalition is not on board.

    Some doubt whether Trump is a genuine populist. But he has a wider scope for genuinely populist rhetoric than Dutton, at least for now.

    Even though he’s a symbol of capitalist excess, part of Trump’s message is that capitalism has taken a wrong turn. Not just into excessive wokeness, but into globalisation and financialisation, where investment and speculation are more profitable than production.

    There are limits to how much any Liberal leader, even Dutton, can tap into anger with capitalism itself.

    David Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump and Peter Dutton have both embraced populism. Are working-class voters buying it? – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-and-peter-dutton-have-both-embraced-populism-are-working-class-voters-buying-it-240309

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –