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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: How allies have helped the US gain independence, defend freedom and keep the peace – even as the US did the same for our friends

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Donald Heflin, Executive Director of the Edward R. Murrow Center and Senior Fellow of Diplomatic Practice, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

    French Gen. Jean de Rochambeau and American Gen. George Washington giving the last orders in October 1781 for the battle at Yorktown, where the British defeat ended the War of Independence. ‘Siege of Yorktown’ painting, Ann Ronan Pictures/Print Collector/Getty Images.

    Make Canada angry. Make Mexico angry. Make the members of NATO angry.

    During the first few weeks of the second Trump administration, President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said a lot of things about longtime allies that caused frustration and outright friction among the leaders of those countries.

    Trump and Vance indeed appear to disdain close alliances, favoring an America First approach to the world. A New York Times headline characterized the relationship between the U.S. and Europe now as “A Strained Alliance.”

    As a former diplomat, I’m aware that how the U.S. treats its allies has been a crucial question in every presidency, since George Washington became the country’s first chief executive. On his way out of that job, Washington said something that Trump, Vance and their fellow America First advocates would probably embrace.

    In what’s known as his “Farewell Address,” Washington warned Americans against “entangling alliances.” Washington wanted America to treat all nations fairly, and warned against both permanent friendships and permanent enemies.

    The irony is that Washington would never have become president without the assistance of the not-yet-United-States’ first ally, France.

    In 1778, after two years of brilliant diplomacy by Benjamin Franklin, the not-yet-United States and the Kingdom of France signed a treaty of alliance as the American Colonies struggled to win their war for independence from Britain.

    France sent soldiers, money and ships to the American revolutionaries. Within three years, after a major intervention by the French fleet, the battle of Yorktown in 1781 effectively ended the war and America was independent.

    Isolationism, then war

    American political leaders largely heeded Washington’s warning against alliances throughout the 1800s. The Atlantic Ocean shielded the young nation from Europe’s problems and many conflicts, and America’s closest neighbors had smaller populations and less military might.

    Aside from the War of 1812, in which the U.S. fought the British, America largely found itself protected from the outside world’s problems.

    That began to change when Europe descended into the brutal trench warfare of World War I.

    Initially, American politicians avoided becoming involved. What would today be called an isolationist movement was strong, and its supporters felt that the war in Europe was being waged for the benefit of big business.

    But it was hard for the U.S.to maintain neutrality. German submarines sank ships crossing the Atlantic carrying American passengers. The economies of some of America’s biggest trading partners were in shreds; the democracies of Britain, France and other European countries were at risk.

    A Boston newspaper headline in 1915 blares the news of a British ocean liner sunk by a German torpedo.
    Serial and Government Publications Division, Library of Congress

    President Woodrow Wilson led the United States into the war in 1917 as an ally of the Western European nations. When he asked Congress for a declaration of war, Wilson touted the value of like-minded allies, saying, “A steadfast concert for peace can never be maintained except by a partnership of democratic nations.” The war was over within 16 months.

    Immediately after the war, the Allies – led by the U.S., France and Britain – stayed together to craft the peace agreements, feed the war-ravaged parts of Europe and intervene in Russia after the Communist Revolution there.

    Prosperity came along with the peace, helping the U.S. quickly develop into a global economic power.

    However, within a few years, American politicians returned to traditional isolationism in political and military matters and continued this attitude well into the 1930s. The worldwide Great Depression that began in 1929 was blamed on vulnerabilities in the global economy, and there was a strong sentiment among Americans that the U.S. should fix its internal problems rather than assist Europe with its problems.

    Alliance counters fascism

    As both Hitler and the Japanese Empire began to attack their neighbors in the late 1930s, it became clear to President Franklin Roosevelt and other American military and political leaders that the U.S. would get caught up in World War II. If nothing else, airplanes had erased America’s ability to hide behind the Atlantic Ocean.

    Though public opinion was divided, the U.S. began sending arms and other assistance to Britain and quietly began military planning with London. This was despite the fact that the U.S. was formally neutral, as the Roosevelt administration was pushing the limits of what a neutral nation can do for friendly nations without becoming a warring party.

    In January of 1941, Roosevelt gave his annual State of the Union speech to Congress. He appeared to prepare the country for possible intervention – both on behalf of allies abroad and for the preservation of American democracy:

    “The future and the safety of our country and of our democracy are overwhelmingly involved in events far beyond our borders. Armed defense of democratic existence is now being gallantly waged in four continents. If that defense fails, all the population and all the resources of Europe, and Asia, and Africa and Australasia will be dominated by conquerors. In times like these it is immature – and incidentally, untrue – for anybody to brag that an unprepared America, single-handed, and with one hand tied behind its back, can hold off the whole world.”

    When the Japanese attacked Hawaii in 1941 and Hitler declared war on the United States, America quickly entered World War II in an alliance with Britain, the Free French and others.
    Throughout the war, the Allies worked as a team on matters large and small. They defeated Germany in three and half years and Japan in less than four.

    As World War II ended, the wartime alliance produced two longer-term partnerships built on the understanding that working together had produced a powerful and effective counter to fascism.

    A ‘news bulletin’ from August 1945 issued by a predecessor of the United Nations.
    Foreign Policy In Focus

    Postwar alliances

    The first of these alliances is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO. The original members were the U.S., Canada, Britain, France and others of the wartime Allies. There are now 32 members, including Poland, Hungary and Turkey.

    The aims of NATO were to keep the peace in Europe and contain the growing Communist threat from the Soviet Union. NATO’s supporters feel that, given that the wars in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s and in the Ukraine today are the only major conflicts in Europe in 80 years, the alliance has met its goals well. And NATO troops went to Afghanistan along with the U.S. military after 9/11.

    The other institution created by the wartime Allies is the United Nations.

    The U.N. is many things – a humanitarian aid organization, a forum for countries to raise their issues and a source of international law.

    However, it is also an alliance. The U.N. Security Council on several occasions authorized the use of force by members, such as in the first Gulf War against Iraq. And it has the power to send peacekeeping troops to conflict areas under the U.N. flag.

    Other U.S. allies with treaties or designations by Congress include Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, three South American countries and six in the Middle East.

    In addition to these formal alliances, many of the same countries created institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization of American States and the European Union. The U.S. belongs to all of these except the European Union. During my 35-year diplomatic career, I worked with all of these institutions, particularly in efforts to stabilize Africa. They keep the peace and support development efforts with loans and grants.

    Admirers of this postwar liberal international order point to the limited number of major armed conflicts during the past 80 years, the globalized economy and international cooperation on important matters such as disease control and fighting terrorism.
    Detractors point to this system’s inability to stop some very deadly conflicts, such as Vietnam or Ukraine, and the large populations that haven’t done well under globalization as evidence of its flaws.

    The world would look dramatically different without the Allies’ victories in the two World Wars, the stable worldwide economic system and NATO’s and the U.N.’s keeping the world relatively peaceful.

    But the value of allies to Americans, even when they benefit from alliances, appears to have shifted between George Washington’s attitude – avoid them – and that of Franklin D. Roosevelt – go all in … eventually.

    Donald Heflin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How allies have helped the US gain independence, defend freedom and keep the peace – even as the US did the same for our friends – https://theconversation.com/how-allies-have-helped-the-us-gain-independence-defend-freedom-and-keep-the-peace-even-as-the-us-did-the-same-for-our-friends-248839

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The leadership hack that drives success: Being trustworthy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Yufei Ren, Associate Professor of Economics, Labovitz School of Business and Economics, University of Minnesota Duluth

    Trustworthy managers get better performance reviews, recent research shows. Andrey Popov/Getty Images

    National Leadership Day, which takes place every Feb. 20, offers a chance to reflect on what truly defines leadership – not just strategy or decision-making, but the ability to build trust. In an era of rapid change, when teams look to leaders for stability and direction, trust is the invisible currency that fuels organizational success.

    As an economist, I know there’s a lot of research proving this point. I’ve conducted some myself, including work on how trust is essential for leaders in cross-cultural business environments. In an expansive study of China’s fast-paced restaurant industry, my colleagues and I found that leaders who cultivate trust can significantly reduce employee churn and improve organizational performance.

    While my study focuses on one sector, its lessons extend far beyond that. It offers insights for leaders in any field, from corporate executives to community organizers.

    Understanding the impact

    In China, as in the U.S., the restaurant industry is known for high turnover rates and cutthroat competition. But our study found that managers who demonstrate trustworthiness can keep employees from fleeing to rivals, creating a more stable and committed workforce.

    First, we conducted a field experiment in which we asked managers at around 115 restaurants how much money they were willing to send to employees in an investment game – an indicator of trust. We then found that for every 10% increase in managers’ trust-driven actions, employee turnover fell by 3.7 percentage points. That’s a testament to the power of trust in the workplace.

    When managers are trustworthy, workers tend to be more loyal, engaged in their job and productive. Employees who perceive their managers as trustworthy report higher job satisfaction and are more willing to exert extra effort, which directly benefits the organization.

    We also found that when employees trust one another, managers get better performance evaluations. That makes sense, since trust fosters improved cooperation and innovation across the board.

    Practical steps to foster trust

    Fortunately for managers – and workers – there’s a lot of research into how to be a more trustworthy leader. Here are a few insights:

    • Empower your team. Let employees take ownership of their responsibilities and make decisions within their roles. This not only boosts their engagement but also aligns their objectives with the broader goals of the organization. Empowerment is a key strategy in building trust.

    • Be fair and transparent. Managers should strive to be consistent in their actions, address concerns promptly and distribute rewards equitably. Those practices can create a psychologically safe and supportive work environment.

    • Promote collaboration. Encourage an atmosphere in which employees can openly share ideas and support one another. Activities that promote team cohesion and open communication can significantly enhance trust within the team.

    • Measure and manage trust. Implementing regular surveys or feedback sessions can help assess and manage trust levels within an organization. Consider integrating trust metrics into performance evaluations to emphasize their importance.

    Some takeaways for National Leadership Day

    Whether helming a business, a nonprofit or a local community initiative, leaders should recognize that being trustworthy isn’t just a “soft skill.” It’s a measurable force that drives success. By making trust-building a deliberate goal, leaders can create stronger, more resilient teams.

    So this National Leadership Day is a good time to reflect: How do you build trust in your leadership? And how can you foster a culture of trustworthiness?

    Managers should commit to leading with trust, acting with integrity and fostering workplaces where people feel valued and empowered. The impact will speak for itself.

    Yufei Ren does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The leadership hack that drives success: Being trustworthy – https://theconversation.com/the-leadership-hack-that-drives-success-being-trustworthy-250117

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A fiscal crisis is looming for many US cities

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John Rennie Short, Professor Emeritus of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

    Houston residents at a flooded park after the passage of Hurricane Beryl, July 8, 2024. Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images

    Five years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, many U.S. cities are still adjusting to a new normal, with more people working remotely and less economic activity in city centers. Other factors, such as underfunded pension plans for municipal employees, are pushing many city budgets into the red.

    Urban fiscal struggles are not new, but historically they have mainly affected U.S. cities that are small, poor or saddled with incompetent managers. Today, however, even large cities, including Chicago, Houston and San Francisco, are under serious financial stress.

    This is a looming nationwide threat, driven by factors that include climate change, declining downtown activity, loss of federal funds and large pension and retirement commitments.

    Spending cuts abound in many U.S. cities as inflation lingers and pandemic-era stimulus dries up.

    Why cities struggle

    Many U.S. cities have faced fiscal crises over the past century, for diverse reasons. Most commonly, stress occurs after an economic downturn or sharp fall in tax revenues.

    Florida municipalities began to default in 1926 after the collapse of a land boom. Municipal defaults were common across the nation in the 1930s during the Great Depression: As unemployment rose, relief burdens swelled and tax collections dwindled.

    In 1934 Congress amended the U.S. bankruptcy code to allow municipalities to file formally for bankruptcy. Subsequently, 27 states enacted laws that authorized cities to become debtors and seek bankruptcy protection.

    Declaring bankruptcy was not a cure-all. It allowed cities to refinance debt or stretch out payment schedules, but it also could lead to higher taxes and fees for residents, and lower pay and benefits for city employees. And it could stigmatize a city for many years afterward.

    In the 1960s and 1970s, many urban residents and businesses left cities for adjoining suburbs. Many cities, including New York, Cleveland and Philadelphia, found it difficult to repay debts as their tax bases shrank.

    The New York Daily News, Oct. 30, 1975, after U.S. President Gerald Ford ruled out providing federal aid to save the city from bankruptcy. Several months later, Ford signed legislation authorizing federal loans.
    Edward Stojakovic/Flickr, CC BY

    In the wake of the 2008-2009 housing market collapse, cities including Detroit, San Bernardino, California, and Stockton, California, filed for bankruptcy. Other cities faced similar difficulties but were located in states that did not allow municipalities to declare bankruptcy.

    Even large, affluent jurisdictions could go off the financial rails. For example, Orange County, California, went bankrupt in 2002 after its treasurer, Robert Citron, pursued a risky investment strategy of complex leveraging deals, losing some $1.65 billion in taxpayer funds.

    Today, cities face a convergence of rising costs and decreasing revenues in many places. As I see it, the urban fiscal crisis is now a pervasive national challenge.

    Climate-driven disasters

    Climate change and its attendant increase in major disasters are putting financial pressure on municipalities across the country.

    Events like wildfires and flooding have twofold effects on city finances. First, money has to be spent on rebuilding damaged infrastructure, such as roads, water lines and public buildings. Second, after the disaster, cities may either act on their own or be required under state or federal law to make expensive investments in preparation for the next storm or wildfire.

    Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (center) discusses wildfire recovery in Pacific Palisades, Calif., Jan. 27, 2025. Cleaning up after the wildfires, which destroyed more than 16,000 structures, will include disposing of several million tons of toxic ash and debris.
    Drew A. Kelley/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images

    In Houston, for example, court rulings after multiple years of severe flooding are forcing the city to spend $100 million on street repairs and drainage by mid-2025. This requirement will expand the deficit in Houston’s annual budget to $330 million.

    In Massachusetts, towns on Cape Cod are spending millions of dollars to switch from septic systems to public sewer lines and upgrade wastewater treatment plants. Population growth has sharply increased water pollution on the Cape, and climate change is promoting blooms of toxic algae that feed on nutrients in wastewater.

    Increasing uncertainty about the total costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change will inevitably lead rating agencies to downgrade municipal credit ratings. This raises cities’ costs to borrow money for climate-related projects like protecting shorelines and improving wastewater treatment.

    Underfunded pensions

    Cities also spend a lot of money on employees, and many large cities are struggling to fund pensions and health benefits for their workforces. As municipal retirees live longer and require more health care, the costs are mounting.

    For example, Chicago currently faces a budget deficit of nearly $1 billion, which stems partly from underfunded retirement benefits for nearly 30,000 public employees. The city has $35 billion in unfunded pension liabilities and almost $2 billion in unfunded retiree health benefits. Chicago’s teachers are owed $14 billion in unfunded benefits.

    Policy studies have shown for years that politicians tend to underfund retirement and pension benefits for public employees. This approach offloads the real cost of providing police, fire protection and education onto future taxpayers.

    Struggling downtowns and less federal support

    Cities aren’t just facing rising costs – they’re also losing revenues. In many U.S. cities, retail and commercial office economies are declining. Developers have overbuilt commercial properties, creating an excess supply. More unleased properties will mean lower tax revenues.

    At the same time, pandemic-related federal aid that cushioned municipal finances from 2020 through 2024 is dwindling.

    State and local governments received $150 billion through the 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and an additional $130 billion through the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act. Now, however, this federal largesse – which some cities used to fill mounting fiscal cracks – is at an end.

    In my view, President Donald Trump’s administration is highly unlikely to bail out urban areas – especially more liberal cities like Detroit, Philadelphia and San Francisco. Trump has portrayed large cities governed by Democrats in the darkest terms – for example, calling Baltimore a “rodent-infested mess” and Washington, D.C., a “dirty, crime-ridden death trap.” I expect that Trump’s animus against big cities, which was a staple of his 2024 campaign, could become a hallmark of his second term.

    Detroit officials respond to disparaging remarks about the city by Donald Trump during a campaign speech in Detroit, Oct. 10, 2024.

    Resistance to new taxes

    Cities can generate revenue from taxes on sales, businesses, property and utilities. However, increasing municipal taxes – particularly property taxes – can be very difficult.

    In 1978, California adopted Proposition 13 – a ballot measure that limited property tax increases to the rate of inflation or 2% per year, whichever is lower. This high-profile campaign created a widespread narrative that property taxes were out of control and made it very hard for local officials to support property tax increases.

    Thanks to caps like Prop 13, a persistent public view that taxes are too high and political resistance, property taxes have tended to lag behind inflation in many parts of the country.

    The crunch

    Taking these factors together, I see a fiscal crunch coming for U.S. cities. Small cities with low budgets are particularly vulnerable. But so are larger, more affluent cities, such as San Francisco with its collapsing downtown office market, or Houston, New York and Miami, which face growing costs from climate change.

    Workers in North Miami Beach, Fla., distribute sandbags to residents to help prevent flooding as Hurricane Milton approaches the state on Oct. 8, 2024.
    AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee

    One city manager who runs an affluent municipality in the Pacific Northwest told me that in these difficult circumstances, politicians need to be more frank and open with their constituents and explain convincingly and compellingly how and why taxpayer money is being spent.

    Efforts to balance city budgets are opportunities to build consensus with the public about what municipalities can do, and at what cost. The coming months will show whether politicians and city residents are ready for these hard conversations.

    John Rennie Short does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A fiscal crisis is looming for many US cities – https://theconversation.com/a-fiscal-crisis-is-looming-for-many-us-cities-249436

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump order boosts school choice, but there’s little evidence vouchers lead to smarter students or better educational outcomes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Charles J. Russo, Joseph Panzer Chair in Education and Research Professor of Law, University of Dayton

    Surveys suggest growing support for school choice, such as in Ohio, even as voters reject such policies in referendums. AP Photo/Samantha Hendrickson

    The school choice movement received a major boost on Jan. 29, 2025, when President Donald Trump issued an executive order supporting families who want to use public money to send their children to private schools.

    The far-reaching order aims to redirect federal funds to voucher-type programs. Vouchers typically afford parents the freedom to select nonpublic schools, including faith-based ones, using all or a portion of the public funds set aside to educate their children.

    But research shows that as a consequence, this typically drains funding from already cash-strapped public schools.

    We are professors who focus on education law, with special interests in educational equity and school choice programs. While proponents of school choice claim it leads to academic gains, we don’t see much evidence to support this view – but we do see the negative impact they sometimes have on public schools.

    The rise of school choice

    The vast majority of children in the U.S. attend traditional public schools. Their share, however, has steadily declined from 87% in 2011 to about 83% in 2021, at least in part due to the growth of school choice programs such as vouchers.

    Modern voucher programs expanded significantly during the late 1980s and early 1990s as states, cities and local school boards experimented with ways to allow parents to use public funds to send their kids to nonpublic schools, especially ones that are religiously affiliated.

    While some programs were struck down for violating the separation of church and state, others were upheld. Vouchers received a big shot in the arm in 2002, when the Supreme Court ruled in Zelman v. Simmons-Harris that the First Amendment’s Establishment Clause permitted states to include faith-based schools in their voucher programs in Cleveland.

    Following Zelman, vouchers became a more realistic political option. Even so, access to school choice programs varied greatly by state and was not as dramatic as supporters may have wished. Because the Constitution is silent on education, states largely control school voucher programs.

    Currently, 13 states and Washington, D.C., offer one or several school choice programs targeting different types of students. Total U.S. enrollment in such programs surpassed 1 million for the first time in 2024, double what it was in 2020, according to EdChoice, which advocates for school-choice policies.

    Voters, however, have taken a dim view of voucher programs. By one count, they’ve turned down referendums on vouchers 17 times, according to the National Coalition for Public Education, a group that opposes the policy.

    Most recently, three states rejected school choice programs in the November 2024 elections. Kentucky voters overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to enshrine school choice into commonwealth law, while Nebraska voters chose to repeal its voucher program. Colorado also rejected a “right” to school choice, but more narrowly.

    In 2025, Tennessee became the 13th state to pass some sort of school choice program, despite opposition from public school supporters.
    AP Photo/George Walker IV

    Trump’s order

    At its heart, Trump’s executive order would offer discretionary grants and issue guidance to states over using federal funds within this K-12 scholarship program. It also directs the Department of Interior and Department of Defense to make vouchers available to Native American and military families.

    In addition, the order directs the Department of Education to provide guidance on how states can better support school choice – though it’s unclear exactly what that will mean. It’s a task that will be left for Linda McMahon, Trump’s nominee for secretary of Education, once she is confirmed.

    Trump promoted school choice in his first term as well but failed to win enough congressional support to include it in the federal budget.

    Research suggests few academic gains from vouchers

    The push to give parents more choice over where to send their children is based on the assumption that doing so will provide them with a better education.

    In the order, Trump specifically cites disappointing data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress showing that 70% of eighth graders are below proficient in reading, while 72% are below proficient in mathematics.

    Voucher advocates point to research that school choice boosts test scores and improves educational attainment.

    But other data don’t always back up the notion that school choice policies meaningfully improve student outcomes. A 2023 review of the past decade of research on the topic by the Brookings Institution found that the introduction of a voucherlike program actually led to lower academic achievement – similar to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    A 2017 review by a Stanford economist Martin Carnoy published by the Economic Policy Institute similarly found little evidence vouchers improve school outcomes. While there were some modest gains in graduation rates, they were outweighed by the risks to funding public school systems.

    Indeed, vouchers have been shown to reduce funding to public schools, especially in rural areas, and hurt public education in other ways, such as by making it harder for schools to afford qualified teachers.

    Critics of voucher programs also fear that nonpublic schools may discriminate
    against some students    , such as those who are members of the LGBTQ+ community. There are some reports of this already happening in Wisconsin. Unlike legislation governing traditional public schools, state laws regulating voucher programs often do not include comprehensive anti-discrimination provisions.

    School reform

    Criticisms of voucher programs aside, many parents who support them do so based on the hope that their children will have more affordable, high-quality educational options. This was especially true in Zelman, in which the Supreme Court upheld the rights of parents to remove their kids from Cleveland’s struggling public schools.

    There is little doubt in our minds that in some cases school choice affords some parents in low-performing districts additional options for their children’s education.

    But in general, the evidence shows that is the exception to vouchers, not the rule. Evidence also suggests most children – whether they’re using vouchers to attend nonpublic schools or remain in the public school system – may not always benefit from school choice programs. And when it takes money out of underfunded public school systems, school choice can make things worse for a lot more children than it benefits.

    While the poor reading and math scores cited in Trump’s executive order suggest that change is needed to help keep America’s school and students competitive, this order may not achieve that goal.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump order boosts school choice, but there’s little evidence vouchers lead to smarter students or better educational outcomes – https://theconversation.com/trump-order-boosts-school-choice-but-theres-little-evidence-vouchers-lead-to-smarter-students-or-better-educational-outcomes-249138

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: p53 is both your genome’s guardian and weakness against cancer – scientists are trying to repair or replace it when it goes awry

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Prosper Obed Chukwuemeka, Ph.D. Candidate in Integrative Systems Biology, University of Pittsburgh

    To stop tumors from forming, p53 can trigger programmed cell death. Juan Gaertner/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

    Cancer arises when your cells grow uncontrollably and refuse to die when they should. Normally, your body is equipped with regulatory processes to prevent this chaos. One such mechanism involves a protein called p53. Often dubbed the “guardian of the genome,” this protein plays a pivotal role in ensuring that your cells grow, divide and die in an orderly fashion. When p53 malfunctions, the result is often cancer.

    Learning about how p53 works has not only deepened how scientists understand cancer, but also provided promising avenues for new treatments.

    In my work as a cancer researcher, I study the underlying mechanisms of how tumors develop and resist treatment. By understanding how cancer cells bypass safeguards like p53, scientists can find better ways to stop them, leading to more effective treatments for patients.

    How p53 works

    Each cell contains DNA that instructs it how to function. Over time, this instruction manual can accumulate errors due to various factors like exposure to harmful ultraviolet rays, smoking or even just natural wear and tear.

    This is where p53 comes in. It acts like a vigilant proofreader, detecting errors in DNA and deciding how to handle them. If the damage is minor, p53 instructs the cell to repair it. But if the damage is beyond repair, p53 triggers a process called apoptosis, or programmed cell death, ensuring the faulty cell doesn’t turn cancerous.

    In more than half of all human cancers, p53 is either missing or dysfunctional. This often happens when the gene that encodes for p53 is mutated or deleted. Without a functioning p53, errors in DNA go unchecked, allowing damaged cells to multiply and form tumors.

    p53 has four arms to wrap around and bind to DNA.
    David Goodsell/RCSB PDB-101, CC BY-SA

    Targeting p53 pathways

    Given its crucial role in preventing cancer, p53 has become a major target for drug development.

    Over the years, scientists have devised various strategies to target the p53 pathway, or the network of molecules p53 controls to regulate cell growth, repair DNA damage and trigger cell death. Rather than acting alone, p53 interacts with multiple molecular pathways – some of which researchers are still discovering – that help determine a cell’s fate.

    Treatment approaches aim to restore or mimic p53’s function in cells where it has gone awry. For example, scientists have developed small molecules that can bind to mutant p53 and stabilize its faulty structure, restoring its ability to bind DNA and regulate genes. Drugs like PRIMA-1 and MIRA-1 essentially “rescue” p53, allowing it to resume its role as the cell’s guardian.

    Even when p53 is missing, scientists can still target the processes it normally controls to treat cancer. For example, drugs can activate apoptosis or halt cell division in ways that mimic p53’s normal function. Drugs like ABT-737 or Navitoclax can block proteins in the p53 pathway that usually stop apoptosis, allowing cell death to occur even when p53 is absent.

    Targeting p53’s overseers

    Researchers are also investigating other proteins that interact with p53 as potential treatment options. Because the p53 pathway is highly complex, targeting different parts of this network presents both opportunities and challenges.

    My colleagues and I are studying two other closely related proteins that regulate p53 by marking it for destruction when it’s no longer needed. These proteins, called MDM2 and MDMX, become overactive in cancer and break down p53.

    p53 is quickly activated to respond to DNA damage.

    Researchers have developed drugs to block MDM2 or MDMX, but targeting just one of these proteins is often not enough. If one is blocked, the other can step in and continue to destroy p53. Most existing drugs are also much better at blocking MDM2 than MDMX due to subtle differences in the latter’s shape, including a smaller area for p53 to bind. This makes it harder for drugs designed to target MDM2 to effectively bind to or reach MDMX.

    To find molecules that could bind to both MDM2 and MDMX, researchers traditionally synthesize and test each molecule individually, which is often time-intensive and costly. In contrast, my colleagues and I used computer modeling tools to simulate how thousands of molecules might interact with the proteins, allowing us to narrow down potential candidates much more quickly.

    We identified a small molecule we called CPO that shows promise in its ability to target both MDM2 and MDMX. Our models showed that CPO may have a stronger ability to block both MDM2 and MDMX than another molecule that researchers previously found could inhibit both of these proteins in cell culture.

    More research is needed to confirm whether CPO works in living systems the same way it does in our computer predictions. If CPO is as safe and effective in cell and animal models, it may offer another treatment option for cancers where MDM2 and MDMX are overactive.

    p53 and cancer treatment

    The journey to fully harnessing the p53 pathway for cancer therapeutics is ongoing, and researchers are exploring several promising options.

    Advances in gene-editing technologies like CRISPR are opening doors to directly correct p53 mutations in cancer cells.

    Additionally, researchers are exploring combination therapies that pair p53-targeting drugs with other treatments, such as immunotherapy, to amplify their effectiveness.

    Like other cancer treatments, one major challenge is ensuring the drugs target p53 in cancer cells and spare healthy cells from unnecessary damage. Achieving this balance will be crucial in translating these therapies from the lab to the clinic.

    Prosper Obed Chukwuemeka does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. p53 is both your genome’s guardian and weakness against cancer – scientists are trying to repair or replace it when it goes awry – https://theconversation.com/p53-is-both-your-genomes-guardian-and-weakness-against-cancer-scientists-are-trying-to-repair-or-replace-it-when-it-goes-awry-248674

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Our research on dark web forums reveals the growing threat of AI-generated child abuse images

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Bailey, Chair, International Policing and Public Protection Research Institute, Anglia Ruskin University

    Ventura/Shutterstock

    The UK aims to be the first country in the world to create new offences related to AI-generated sexual abuse. New laws will make it illegal to possess, create or distribute AI tools designed to generate child sexual abuse material (CSAM), punishable by up to five years in prison. The laws will also make it illegal for anyone to possess so-called “paedophile manuals” which teach people how to use AI to sexually abuse children.

    In the last few decades, the threat against children from online abuse has multiplied at a concerning rate. According to the Internet Watch Foundation, which tracks down and removes abuse from the internet, there has been an 830% rise in online child sexual abuse imagery since 2014. The prevalence of AI image generation tools is fuelling this further.

    Last year, we at the International Policing and Protection Research Institute at Anglia Ruskin University published a report on the growing demand for AI-generated child sexual abuse material online.

    Researchers analysed chats that took place in dark web forums over the previous 12 months. We found evidence of growing interest in this technology, and of online offenders’ desire for others to learn more and create abuse images.

    Horrifyingly, forum members referred to those creating the AI-imagery as “artists”. This technology is creating a new world of opportunity for offenders to create and share the most depraved forms of child abuse content.

    Our analysis showed that members of these forums are using non-AI-generated images and videos already at their disposal to facilitate their learning and train the software they use to create the images. Many expressed their hopes and expectations that the technology would evolve, making it even easier for them to create this material.

    Dark web spaces are hidden and only accessible through specialised software. They provide offenders with anonymity and privacy, making it difficult for law enforcement to identify and prosecute them.

    The Internet Watch Foundation has documented concerning statistics about the rapid increase in the number of AI-generated images they encounter as part of their work. The volume remains relatively low in comparison to the scale of non-AI images that are being found, but the numbers are growing at an alarming rate.

    The charity reported in October 2023 that a total of 20,254 AI generated imaged were uploaded in a month to one dark web forum. Before this report was published, little was known about the threat.

    The harms of AI abuse

    The perception among offenders is that AI-generated child sexual abuse imagery is a victimless crime, because the images are not “real”. But it is far from harmless, firstly because it can be created from real photos of children, including images that are completely innocent.

    While there is a lot we don’t yet know about the impact of AI-generated abuse specifically, there is a wealth of research on the harms of online child sexual abuse, as well as how technology is used to perpetuate or worsen the impact of offline abuse. For example, victims may have continuing trauma due to the permanence of photos or videos, just knowing the images are out there. Offenders may also use images (real or fake) to intimidate or blackmail victims.

    These considerations are also part of ongoing discussions about deepfake pornography, the creation of which the government also plans to criminalise.



    Read more:
    Deepfake porn: why we need to make it a crime to create it, not just share it

    All of these issues can be exacerbated with AI technology. Additionally, there is also likely to be a traumatic impact on moderators and investigators having to view abuse images in the finest details to identify if they are “real” or “generated” images.

    What can the law do?

    UK law currently outlaws the taking, making, distribution and possession of an indecent image or a pseudo-photograph (a digitally-created photorealistic image) of a child.

    But there are currently no laws that make it an offence to possess the technology to create AI child sexual abuse images. The new laws should ensure that police officers will be able to target abusers who are using or considering using AI to generate this content, even if they are not currently in possession of images when investigated.

    New laws on AI tools should help investigators crack down on offenders even if they do not have images in their possession.
    Pla2na/Shutterstock

    We will always be behind offenders when it comes to technology, and law enforcement agencies around the world will soon be overwhelmed. They need laws designed to help them identify and prosecute those seeking to exploit children and young people online.

    It is welcome news that the government is committed to taking action, but it has to be fast. The longer the legislation takes to enact, the more children are at risk of being abused.

    Tackling the global threat will also take more than laws in one country. We need a whole-system response that starts when new technology is being designed. Many AI products and tools have been developed for entirely genuine, honest and non-harmful reasons, but they can easily be adapted and used by offenders looking to create harmful or illegal material.

    The law needs to understand and respond to this, so that technology cannot be used to facilitate abuse, and so that we can differentiate between those using tech to harm, and those using it for good.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Our research on dark web forums reveals the growing threat of AI-generated child abuse images – https://theconversation.com/our-research-on-dark-web-forums-reveals-the-growing-threat-of-ai-generated-child-abuse-images-249067

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Your dog may be wilder than you think, according to canine sleep research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Deborah Wells, Reader, School of Psychology, Queen’s University Belfast

    Rasulov/Shutterstock

    Dogs may look adorable when they snooze, but their sleeping habits actually hold fascinating clues on how living with humans has shaped canine behaviour. The sleep-wake patterns of the dog can also serve as a useful model for human sleep and wellbeing research.

    Domestic dogs have largely diurnal sleeping habits (awake during the day, asleep at night), aligning themselves to the lifestyle of their owners. Most of their sleep happens during the night, between the hours of 9pm and 6am. Unlike humans, however, dogs have frequent bouts of sleeping during the daytime, particularly in the afternoon.

    A 2020 study estimated that the average pet dog sleeps for roughly ten hours a day. In reality, it is difficult to determine how much dogs sleep during a 24-hour period because drowsiness (resting with eyes closed) accounts for a considerable proportion of their daily activity. This has led to a large range of estimation (seven to 16 hours) in the amount of time that dogs devote to sleep.

    The dog’s ancestor, the grey wolf, tends to show nocturnal (night-time active) or crepuscular (dawn and dusk active) sleep patterns in the wild. That said, wolves can show high variability in their activity, with human disturbance, food availability and weather conditions all influencing their sleep-wake cycles.

    Captive wolves, like dogs, typically have a diurnal circadian rhythm, adapting their sleep-wake cycle to the feeding regimes and human activity in their environment. Free-ranging domestic dogs are more inclined to resemble wild canids in their sleep cycles, showing a greater propensity towards crepuscular or nocturnal activity. In urban areas feral dogs may, again, align their sleeping habits with human activity.

    These cross-species studies suggest that domestication may not necessarily have changed the sleeping habits of dogs per se. Rather, sleep in dogs appears to be determined by human lifestyle and situational factors. Left to their own devices, however, dogs may be more likely to assume the sleeping habits of their wild ancestors.

    The nature of sleep in dogs

    Dogs have a number of sleep stages, including drowsiness, lighter non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep and deeper rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, where most, although not all, dreaming happens. Dogs devote more of their total sleep time to REM (roughly 2.9 hours a day) than humans (1.9 hours a day).

    However, a 2022 study that involved researchers cuddling dogs and socialised wolves to sleep, found that dogs spent less time in REM sleep than the wolves.

    Both species, however, spent a similar amount of time in the other stages of sleep. This raises questions about whether REM sleep is related to domestication. Species which are at high risk of being attacked while asleep typically spend less time in REM sleep than animals who live in safer environments, so the findings from this study are intriguing.

    Dogs nap during the day more than people or wolves.
    manushot/Shutterstock

    Dogs engage in their deepest sleep during the night, and their daytime naps are relatively light. Like other animals, including rats and hedgehogs, dogs often wake up after a period of REM sleep, perhaps an evolutionary adaptation designed to force them out of their slumber to check for dangers in the environment.

    These frequent and relatively brief sleep-wake cycles allow dogs to adjust to changes in their routine more readily than humans. Drug detection dogs, for example, have been found to cope remarkably well with changes to their working schedule, showing little disruption to their sleeping patterns.

    As with humans, the duration and quality of sleep in dogs fluctuates, both day to day and over their lifespan. As dogs get older, their sleep becomes more fragmented, accompanied by decreased bouts of REM sleep at night and increased NREM sleep during the day.

    Other factors, including canine sex, daytime activity, welfare, environmental conditions, and even social interactions, can affect sleep quality. Deprivations in daytime napping typically lead to quicker sleep onset and longer REM sleep at night, both for dogs and other animals.

    Why do dogs sleep?

    Scientists still don’t agree why dogs, or indeed other animals, sleep, although we do know that the process is heavily involved in physical restoration.

    Memory consolidation (the conversion of short-term memory to long-term memory), closely linked to REM sleep, is perhaps the most studied function of sleep. Most of this work points to sleep’s important role in facilitating learning.

    For example, in 2017 researchers in Hungary found that dogs’ memory recall significantly improved when the animals were taught unfamiliar words and then allowed to take a three hour period of sleep and rest.

    The nature of sleep in dogs, as in humans, may be influenced by emotional processing. The 2017 Hungarian study found negative experiences, such as owner separation and approach from a threatening stranger, resulted in increased REM sleep and decreased drowsiness in the dogs. Further work on this aspect of sleep is much needed, particularly considering there are close parallels in cognitive functioning between humans and dogs.

    Scientists already use dogs as a model for studying a range of sleep-related issues in humans, including sleep disorders, such as narcolepsy and REM behaviour disorder, and age-related changes similar to dementia in humans (cognitive dysfunction syndrome). Although still in its foetal stages, work in this area is starting to yield data that may be useful in helping us decipher early mechanisms for Alzeimher’s disease and treatment for age-related health problems.

    It is clear that our dogs are not wasting their time slumbering on the sofa. There is still much to be learned from exploring the biological rhythms of the animals we share our lives with, so let those sleeping dogs lie.

    Deborah Wells does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Your dog may be wilder than you think, according to canine sleep research – https://theconversation.com/your-dog-may-be-wilder-than-you-think-according-to-canine-sleep-research-241981

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Switching to electric vehicles will push the power grid to the brink

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Florimond Gueniat, Associate Professor in Mechanical Engineering, Birmingham City University

    AdamEdwards / shutterstock

    The UK’s pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 hinges on replacing millions of petrol and diesel vehicles with cleaner alternatives. But transitioning to electric transport isn’t just about manufacturing new cars, installing chargers and so on. It’s a gargantuan energy generation challenge that could push the power grid to its limits.

    In 2023, UK transport consumed about 46 million litres of petrol and diesel. If we convert that into electricity, it would be equivalent to 49.5 gigawatts (GW) of continuous power throughout a whole year. For perspective, this is about one-third more than the UK’s entire current electricity generation capacity.

    In other words, every single power station in the UK could be devoted entirely to powering electric vehicles and it still wouldn’t be enough. But one might say we didn’t consider the efficiency of electric vehicles. Petrol and diesel engines waste about three quarters of their energy as heat, with only a small portion used to propel the car. Electric vehicles meanwhile waste only about one quarter.

    Adjusting for this, the actual power needed if the UK went entirely electric drops to around 20 GW. It would still mean increasing today’s grid capacity by almost half (46%), corresponding to building 17 nuclear plants (1.2 GW each) or 5,800 skyscraper-sized wind turbines (3.5 MW each). Those wind farms would cost around £22 billion, while the nuclear plants would cost significantly more.

    At the moment, less than 1% of vehicles in the UK are electric, which explains why there are no specific power issues – yet. But if the country did have a fully carbon-free fleet of vehicles, the associated surge in demand would strain infrastructure and risk large blackouts. California’s grid, for example, already faces stress during electric vehicle charging peaks, prompting warnings and forcing the state to put “managed charging” policies in place.

    ‘A gargantuan energy challenge’.
    Supamotionstock.com / shutterstock

    Massive upgrade needed

    Most countries looking to switch to zero-carbon transport will need to massively upgrade their electricity grid and power plants. Renewable energy complicates matters as wind and solar can’t always meet demand spikes (you can burn more gas or coal when needed, but you can’t choose when the wind blows or the sun shines). Nuclear offers stable and massive output, but new plants can take decades to build and the public is often hostile.

    Certain “smart” solutions could help things even if the grid itself isn’t overhauled. Electric vehicle batteries could be linked to the grid for instance, and used to store and supply power. Overnight, millions of cars will soak up electricity before releasing it when demand spikes again in the morning. Price discounts would encourage people to charge their cars at night, when demand for electricity is at its lowest.

    This can help mitigate many of the issues related to wind and solar being intermittent. But it will cause batteries to deteriorate faster, and still won’t solve the problem of having to generate more electricity.

    Electricity stored overnight can be very useful in the morning when millions of lights and kettles are switched on.
    Smile Fight / shutterstock

    One underappreciated strategy is empowering households and businesses that generate their own electricity via solar panels, small wind turbines, or even micro-hydro systems. By 2035, with vigorous policies, these “prosumers” could supply up to 15% of the UK’s electricity, easing grid strain and reducing reliance on centralised funding. Such policies in Germany have lead its prosumer networks to already offset 10% of the national demand.

    Without such decentralised efforts, the financial burden of grid upgrades will fall entirely on taxpayers, at staggering costs. The alternative is a huge rise in price of electricity, felt by all, and a stalled transition.

    No time to delay

    Generating more power remains the core issue. Without urgent action, the transition to low-carbon transport could stall – or worse, overload the energy system. The governments of France, the UK and some other countries have recently begun to discuss increasing energy production, but the focus is on meeting AI-related demands rather than electricity for the next generation of vehicles.

    Critically, net-zero will only happen with strong transport and energy policies in place. Governments must increase grid capacity and incentivise small-scale renewable generation through tax breaks and specially-designed payments. The alternative – delaying and relying solely on public funds – is economically unviable and politically risky.

    Florimond Gueniat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Switching to electric vehicles will push the power grid to the brink – https://theconversation.com/switching-to-electric-vehicles-will-push-the-power-grid-to-the-brink-248814

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: More people are playing roller derby – here’s what that might mean for foot health

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Benjamin Bullen, Lecturer in Podiatric Medicine, University of Galway

    Marben/Shutterstock

    Popularised in the 2009 Drew Barrymore film, Whip It, roller derby is one of the fastest growing sports for women worldwide – particularly in the US.

    While this roller speed-skating competition was originally established as a marathon race in the 1930s, the modern, kick-ass, punk-inspired, version began in the early 2000s.

    Players wear four-wheeled “quad” roller skates and mandatory protective equipment, including a helmet, mouth and wrist guards and elbow and knee pads – but foot injuries are common. These often include bruising, torn ligaments, broken bones and toenail injuries – like the one featured in the image below.

    Since roller derby is a growing sport, podiatrists like me will likely see more foot injuries from players, including bruising under the toenails and lost nails. Lost toenails are a common injury among these athletes due to the frequent quick turns and stops required during events.

    Many roller derby athletes wear tight skates to improve responsiveness during quick turns and stops. Loose fitting boots can also increase the risk of ankle injuries, such as sprained or torn ligaments and broken ankle and foot bones.

    Under pressure

    It is not at all uncommon for people to have one foot longer than the other, which will increase pressure in the roller skate, particularly on the big toenail. Silicone toe protectors can be worn to reduce this pressure; however, they may also reduce the amount of available room in the toebox – front of the shoe.

    Appropriate roller skate fit is essential to prevent such nail injuries and, much like other sports, shoes that are too short or too long may lead to recurring nail issues, such as “runner’s toe” – also known as a subungual hematoma – a painful, blackened toenail caused by repeated trauma.

    Skates with a deeper and wider toebox may reduce the likelihood of injury. The front of the shoe may also be “punched-out” following gentle warming of the material. This can be achieved professionally with the assistance of special stretchers. In keeping with the “do-it-yourself” ethos of roller derby, though, skaters may use the rounded end of a broom handle to gently stretch the shoes over the big toenail area.

    In addition, loose roller skate laces leave the ankle unstable and more likely to roll, leading to strains, sprains and even broken bones. Firm lacing secures the foot firmly within the roller skate, also reducing the potential for friction and the foot sliding forward within the roller skate, avoiding nail trauma.

    Foot injury prevention

    As a podiatrist, I advise patients to use protective dressings before playing sport, wear cushioning socks to absorb some of the force, and keep toe nails short with regular trimming. Some roller derby athletes have been known to apply superglue or nail glue to re-attach lifted nails – but this practice is not advised. Supergluing lost nails could cause lead to irritation, infection and further injury.

    Keeping nails short and ensuring good roller skate fit and firm lacing are essential to prevent foot, ankle and toenail injuries. Whether a roller derby player or not, if you do experience foot and ankle issues, why not visit your friendly local podiatrist?

    Later, skater.

    Benjamin Bullen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. More people are playing roller derby – here’s what that might mean for foot health – https://theconversation.com/more-people-are-playing-roller-derby-heres-what-that-might-mean-for-foot-health-248524

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tomb of Egyptian pharaoh is first found in Luxor since Tutankhamun – here’s how we know who lay inside

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Claire Isabella Gilmour, PhD Candidate, Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Bristol

    Thutmose II was the fourth ruler of the illustrious ancient Egyptian 18th dynasty, which included Tutankhamun. Now, the location of his long-lost tomb, one of the last missing royal tombs, has been confirmed by the New Kingdom Research Foundation, a British-Egyptian archaeological team led by Piers Litherland. It’s the first pharaoh’s tomb to be discovered in Luxor for over a century.

    Thutmose II had a relatively short and uneventful reign, but his enduring legacy is his family. He was husband and half-brother of the female pharaoh Hatshepsut, and father of Thutmose III, arguably ancient Egypt’s greatest military leader.

    Thutmose was himself of royal blood as a biological son of Thutmose I. But as his mother was only a minor wife, his marriage to Hatshepsut (also a daughter of Thutmose I, by his principal wife Ahmose) cemented his position in line to the throne.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Around 500 years after Thutmose II’s death, ancient Egyptian officials of the 21st dynasty realised that his tomb (and that of other royals from the New Kingdom) had become vulnerable to damage from flooding and the attentions of tomb robbers. They chose a secret place in the Theban cliffs to relocate the royal remains to.

    The mummified bodies of kings, queens and other significant people were interred in their new resting place near Hatshepsut’s temple. The entrance was well disguised by sand and rocks, and was inaccessible by foot. There they lay there until the late 19th century.



    Read more:
    The scent of the ancient Egyptian afterlife has been recreated – here’s what it smelled like

    When the area became known to Egyptologists in 1881, the cache was found to contain the bodies of, among others, Ramesses II, Seti I, Thutmose III and, of course, Thutmose II.

    They were moved from the Egyptian Museum in Tahrir Square, Cairo, in a spectacular, globally broadcast parade to the newly opened National Museum of Egyptian Civilization in 2021. But the search for Thutmose II’s original tomb continued.

    Stone block relief showing Thutmose II, found at Karnak Temple in Luxor.
    WikiCommons, CC BY

    This tomb, designated C4, is located in a relatively inaccessible position. It is next to the magnificent mortuary temple of Hatshepsut, Thutmose’s principal wife and later pharaoh in her own right, at the site of Deir el-Bahri on the west bank of the Nile at Luxor.

    Discovered in 2022, the site is some 1.2 miles away from the Valley of the Kings, where tombs for Thutmose I and III and Hatshepsut were planned. Women of the royal family had been found there, so the initial theory was that this newly found tomb belonged to one of Thutmose’s lesser wives.

    The tomb was also blocked by flood debris. The excavation team had to work through a deep entrance staircase, collapsed ceilings, corridors filled with flooding debris, and tonnes of limestone fragments.

    What was in the tomb?

    Further exploration by the excavation team has now brought to light evidence that confirms the tomb is that of Thutmose II himself.

    Initial observations showed that the form of the entrance bore a strong resemblance to that of Hatshepsut’s KV20 tomb in the Valley of the Kings. It features a wide staircase, doorway and descending corridor, and therefore a significant space lay beyond.

    As the ceilings and walls were cleared, beautiful decoration of a starred sky and extracts from a funerary text known as the Amduat emerged, strongly suggesting that this was a king’s burial. Sifting through the limestone fragments revealed broken alabaster vessels bearing the king’s name and – crucially – that of Hatshepsut, reducing the list of potential candidates to just one.

    Even though C4 has otherwise been emptied of funerary goods such as sarcophagi, this is actually good news. It indicates that the tomb contents were moved elsewhere, perhaps due to the flooding. These items were not found with Thutmose II’s relocated body, so the search is still on to find them.

    Hatshepsut’s original tomb has not yet been found.
    Metropolitan Museum of Art, CC BY-SA

    Contrary to many reports, C4 is not the first royal tomb to be found since that of Tutankhamun in 1922 by Howard Carter. Pierre Montet’s excavations at the third intermediate period (1069–664BC) capital city of Tanis in the 1930s revealed the royal necropolis of the 21st and 22nd dynasties, with some undisturbed. However, C4 is the first since Tutankhamun in Luxor, and it is the last missing king’s tomb of the 18th dynasty.

    Still up for discovery are a handful of tombs belonging to other rulers of Egypt: Nefertiti; Ramesses XIII; the 21st-dynasty high priest of Amun, Herihor; Cleopatra VII; and Alexander the Great. Other significant tombs which may yet come to light are Ankhesenamun, wife of Tutankhamun, and the great architect Imhotep.

    Some of these tombs may never be found. But the New Kingdom Research Foundation are now looking to find the next stage in Thutmose II’s postmortem journey – where was he taken after C4, but before the royal cache in the Theban cliffs?

    Claire Isabella Gilmour does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tomb of Egyptian pharaoh is first found in Luxor since Tutankhamun – here’s how we know who lay inside – https://theconversation.com/tomb-of-egyptian-pharaoh-is-first-found-in-luxor-since-tutankhamun-heres-how-we-know-who-lay-inside-250433

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why the US return to tariffs and protectionism ‘reeks of hypocrisy’ – podcast

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    Amani A/Shutterstock

     When Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs during his first term as US president, it sparked a trade war with China. As the Trump administration ratchets up its threat to tax imports from its allies and economic rivals alike, the world is bracing for another wave of costly economic disruption.

    This protectionist shift is all the more remarkable given how the US championed trade liberalisation for decades.

    So what does it actually take for a country to use protectionism to grow its economy? Some developing countries have successfully used tariffs to do so, while others have struggled. In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we talk to Jostein Hauge, a development economist at the University of Cambridge, about who wins and who loses from tariffs and protectionism.

    The main argument against taxing imports through tariffs is that the higher costs of imported goods will be passed onto consumers. The main argument in favour is that tariffs can help to protect a country’s domestic economy, explains Hauge:

     By using tariffs, you can, if they are used effectively, and if they’re successful, help domestic firms become better at producing what they’re producing and eventually become competitive in the world economy. Sometimes that’s successful, other times that’s not successful. It can also be an effective way of raising taxes, especially for countries that don’t have a lot of tax revenue, especially developing countries.

    A number of developing countries successfully used tariffs and other forms of protectionism to grow their economies in the 1950s and 1960s, as Hauge explains:

    South Korea gradually went from being a low-income, low-tech economy towards becoming extremely important players in global industries like electronics, automotive and steel.

    The US has also used tariffs throughout its history, with varying degrees of success. It was the most protectionist country in the world in the 1800s, using tariffs to grow its economy. But the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930, which introduced a range of taxes on imports to the US, actually contributed to worsening the Great Depression.

    From the 1970s, however, the US aggressively pushed for trade liberalisation and backed the creation of the World Trade Organization in the 1990s. That’s why Hauge says the current return to US protectionism, which began during the first Trump administration and continued under Biden, “reeks of hypocrisy”.

     When rich countries were ahead in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, it made sense for them to preach the virtues of free trade to the rest of the world.  That is also why we’re seeing this protectionist turn right now, especially in the United States, but also to some degree in Europe, because now certain countries are starting to become competitive once again. In particular, China is now challenging the economic power of the United States, especially within a lot of manufactured goods, so the United States is now turning away from this doctrine of free trade, saying actually protectionism is useful.

    Listen to the conversation with Jostein Hauge on The Conversation Weekly podcast, which also includes an introduction from Tracy Walsh, economy and business editor at The Conversation US.

    This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Mend Mariwany with assistance from Katie Flood and Gemma Ware, Sound design was by Michelle Macklem, and theme music by Neeta Sarl.

    Clips in this episode from CNN, Bloomberg Television, BBC News, CBS News and NBC News.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Jostein Hauge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why the US return to tariffs and protectionism ‘reeks of hypocrisy’ – podcast – https://theconversation.com/why-the-us-return-to-tariffs-and-protectionism-reeks-of-hypocrisy-podcast-250329

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: US backing for Pacific disinformation media course casualty of Trump aid ‘freeze’

    Pacific Media Watch

    A New Zealand-based community education provider, Dark Times Academy, has had a US Embassy grant to deliver a course teaching Pacific Islands journalists about disinformation terminated after the new Trump administration took office.

    The new US administration requested a list of course participants and to review the programme material amid controversy over a “freeze” on federal aid policies.

    The course presentation team refused and the contract was terminated by “mutual agreement” — but the eight-week Pacific workshop is going ahead anyway from next week.

    Dark Times Academy’s co-founder Mandy Henk . . . “A Bit Sus”, an evidence-based peer-reviewed series of classes on disinfiormation for Pacific media. Image: Newsroom

    “As far as I can tell, the current foreign policy priorities of the US government seem to involve terrorising the people of Gaza, annexing Canada, invading Greenland, and bullying Panama,” said Dark Times Academy co-founder Mandy Henk.

    “We felt confident that a review of our materials would not find them to be aligned with those priorities.”

    The course, called “A Bit Sus”, is an evidence-based peer-reviewed series of classes that teach key professions the skills needed to identify and counter disinformation and misinformation in their particular field.

    The classes focus on “prebunking”, lateral reading, and how technology, including generative AI, influences disinformation.

    Awarded competitive funds
     Dark Times Academy was originally awarded the funds to run the programme through a public competitive grant offered by the US Embassy in New Zealand in 2023 under the previous US administration.

    The US Embassy grant was focused on strengthening the capacity of Pacific media to identify and counter disinformation. While funded by the US, the course was to be a completely independent programme overseen by Dark Times Academy and its academic consultants.

    Co-founder Henk was preparing to deliver the education programme to a group of Pacific Island journalists and media professionals, but received a request from the US Embassy in New Zealand to review the course materials to “ensure they are in line with US foreign policy priorities”.

    Henk said she and the other course presenters refused to allow US government officials to review the course material for this purpose.

    She said the US Embassy had also requested a “list of registered participants for the online classes,” which Dark Times Academy also declined to provide as compliance would have violated the New Zealand Privacy Act 2020.

    Henk said the refusal to provide the course materials for review led immediately to further discussions with the US Embassy in New Zealand that ultimately resulted in the termination of the grant “by mutual agreement”.

    However, she said Dark Times Academy would still go ahead with running the course for the Pacific Island journalists who had signed up so far, starting on February 26.

    Continuing the programme
    “The Dark Times Academy team fully intends to continue to bring the ‘A Bit Sus’ programme and other classes to the Pacific region and New Zealand, even without the support of the US government,” Henk said.

    “As noted when we first announced this course, the Pacific Islands have experienced accelerated growth in digital connectivity over the past few years thanks to new submarine cable networks and satellite technology.

    “Alongside this, the region has also seen a surge in harmful rumours and disinformation that is increasingly disrupting the ability to share accurate and truthful information across Pacific communities.

    “This course will help participants from the media recognise common tactics used by disinformation agents and support them to deploy proven educational and communications techniques.

    “By taking a skills-based approach to countering disinformation, our programme can help to spread the techniques needed to mitigate the risks posed by digital technologies,” Henk said.

    Especially valuable for journalists
    Dark Times Academy co-founder Byron Clark said the course would be especially valuable for journalists in the Pacific region given the recent shifts in global politics and the current state of the planet.

    Dark Times Academy co-founder and author Byron Clark . . . “We saw the devastating impacts of disinformation in the Pacific region during the measles outbreak in Samoa.” Image: APR

    “We saw the devastating impacts of disinformation in the Pacific region during the measles outbreak in Samoa, for example,” said Clark, author of the best-selling book Fear: New Zealand’s Underworld of Hostile Extremists.

    “With Pacific Island states bearing the brunt of climate change, as well as being caught between a geopolitical stoush between China and the West, a course like this one is timely.”

    Henk said the “A Bit Sus” programme used a “high-touch teaching model” that combined the current best evidence on how to counter disinformation with a “learner-focused pedagogy that combines discussion, activities, and a project”.

    Past classes led to the creation of the New Zealand version of the “Euphorigen Investigation” escape room, a board game, and a card game.

    These materials remain in use across New Zealand schools and community learning centres.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Playing favourites, inconsistency or a fair decision? Unpacking Jannik Sinner’s doping case

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matt Nichol, Lecturer in Law, CQUniversity Australia

    The tennis world is still reeling after news the number one ranked men’s player, Jannik Sinner, agreed to a three-month suspension issued by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) to be served between the Australian and French Opens.

    Sinner, a three-time Grand Slam winner, received the ban after twice testing positive for clostebol, a steroid banned by the World-Anti Doping Code, in March 2024.



    Read more:
    Tennis is facing an existential crisis over doping. How will it respond?

    The fallout

    “Unintentional doping offences” – as in Sinner’s case – can attract a maximum two-year ban even if the athlete shows no fault or negligence.

    Sinner’s three-month ban was immediately criticised by many in the media and within tennis circles due to its leniency and convenient timing. It also did not result from a hearing before an anti-doping tribunal or the Court of Arbitration for Sport, as has been the case with other tennis players who have received bans in the past.

    The suspension was the product of a “case resolution agreement” (a negotiated settlement) between WADA and Sinner.

    WADA initially appealed the International Tennis Integrity Agency’s decision not to suspend Sinner on the basis of demonstrating no significant fault or negligence, but withdrew its case before the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

    Sinner argued the banned substance entered his system after a massage by a physiotherapist in his entourage who had used a cream with clostebol to treat a cut on his finger.

    Both WADA and the International Tennis Integrity Agency accepted this version of events.

    In the eyes of most, WADA’s actions failed to pass the “pub test” and many high-profile tennis players voiced their concerns.

    Novak Djokovic flagged issues over the treatment of high-ranked athletes such as Sinner compared to lower-ranked players.

    For example, Chilean Nicolas Jarry was suspended for 11 months in 2020 after testing positive to ligandrol and stanozolol that he alleged were in a supplement he took.

    In 2023 Sweden’s Mikael Ymer was suspended for 18 months by the Court of Arbitration for Sport for failing to submit to three out-of-competition tests in a 12-month period.

    Great Britain’s Tara Moore took nearly two years to clear her name before an anti-doping tribunal in 2023 revealed contaminated meat had led to her positive tests for nandrolone and boldenone. Despite this decision, Moore served a 19-month ban.

    Djokovic’s view suggested favouritism for higher-ranked players, who can access top lawyers. He also criticised a lack of transparency in the Sinner agreement with WADA.

    However, high-ranked players such as Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova have received lengthy suspensions for doping violations.

    Nick Kyrgios was similarly critical, stating it was a sad day for the sport and that fairness in tennis did not exist.

    Former Spanish player Feliciano Lopez was among those who supported Sinner. He said he believed in clean sport and that Sinner had not enhanced his performance and took responsibility for the actions of his physiotherapist.

    Intentional and unintentional doping

    The criticisms appear to be based on a misunderstanding of the anti-doping provisions in the World Anti-Doping Code and the failure by WADA to clearly communicate its rationale for Sinner’s suspension.

    Rather than favouritism for a high-ranked player, WADA’s decision to suspend Sinner for three months was based on the distinction in the World Anti-Doping Code between intentional and unintentional doping. It found that Sinner:

    • had not intended to cheat using clostebol
    • received no performance-enhancing benefit from the substance
    • had no knowledge of the administration of the substance.

    But WADA argued that under the code, Sinner was responsible for the negligence of his entourage and issued the suspension.

    WADA confirmed its rationale for the three-month suspension after Spanish media pointed out that figure skater Laura Barquero had received a six-year ban for a positive test of clostebol.

    WADA differentiated the two cases based on intention. It was not convinced by Barquero’s explanation of how clostebol entered her system, while it said the evidence supported Sinner’s version of events.

    Lessons from the Sinner case

    So what can be learned from Sinner’s case?

    One of the most important legal issues arising from the Sinner case is the distinction in the anti-doping rules between intentional and unintentional doping.

    This distinction explains the difference in penalties between Sinner and other athletes.

    Also, the facts of a doping case are relevant in determining circumstances that may reduce the severity of a penalty in matters resolved by negotiated case resolution agreements.

    An important lesson for WADA is ensuring transparency in proceedings and the clear communication of the rationale used to arrive at a penalty.

    Finally, a Court of Arbitration for Sport hearing may not have been needed for Sinner as the parties agreed on the facts leading to the doping rule violation.

    Matt Nichol does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Playing favourites, inconsistency or a fair decision? Unpacking Jannik Sinner’s doping case – https://theconversation.com/playing-favourites-inconsistency-or-a-fair-decision-unpacking-jannik-sinners-doping-case-250143

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Palestine and Gaza’s Hamas resistance condemn Fiji over embassy plan

    By Anish Chand in Suva

    Palestine has strongly condemned Fiji’s decision to open a Fiji embassy in Jerusalem, calling it a violation of international law and relevant United Nations resolutions.

    The Palestinian Foreign Ministry and the Hamas resistance group that governs the besieged enclave of Gaza issued separate statements, urging the Fiji government to reverse its decision.

    According to the Palestinian Foreign Ministry, the Fijian decision is “an act of aggression against the Palestinian people and their inalienable rights”.

    The Palestinian group Hamas said in a statement that the decision was “a blatant assault on the rights of our Palestinian people to their land and a clear violation of international law and UN resolutions, which recognise Jerusalem as occupied Palestinian territory”.

    Fiji will become the seventh country to have an embassy in Jerusalem after the US, Guatemala, Honduras, Kosovo, Papua New Guinea, and Paraguay.

    Republished from The Fiji Times with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: CDC layoffs strike deeply at its ability to respond to the current flu, norovirus and measles outbreaks and other public health emergencies

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jordan Miller, Teaching Professor of Public Health, Arizona State University

    The CDC played an instrumental, if imperfect, role in the response to COVID-19. JHDT Stock Images LLC/iStock via Getty Images

    In just a few short weeks, the Trump administration has brought drastic changes to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and public health. Beginning with the removal of websites and key public health datasets in January 2025, the Trump administration has taken actions to dismantle established public health infrastructure as part of its second-term agenda.

    In addition, the administration has begun a widespread purge of the federal public health workforce. As of Feb. 19, around 5,200 employees at the CDC and the National Institutes of Health had been let go. About 10% of the CDC’s staff have been removed, with plans for additional firings.

    As a teaching professor and public health educator, I, like thousands of other health professionals, rely on CDC data and educational resources throughout my work. CDC websites are the first stop for health information for my students and for health care practitioners, and are vital to protecting the U.S. from infectious diseases, like avian flu and COVID-19, as well as noninfectious health conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease.

    Here’s a quick look at what the CDC does to protect Americans’ health, and how it’s likely to be affected by the Trump administration’s actions:

    Gutting the CDC’s capacity

    Prior to the February cuts, the CDC employed over 10,000 full-time staff in roles spanning public health, epidemiology, medicine, communications, engineering and beyond to maintain this critical public health infrastructure.

    In addition to the centers’ wide variety of functions to protect and promote public health in the U.S., a vast amount of research in the U.S. relies on CDC data. The CDC obtains data from all 50 states, territories and the District of Columbia, which is collated into widely utilized databases such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, National Health Interview Survey and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

    Several of these datasets and CDC websites were removed at the start of the second Trump term, and while they are currently back online due to a federal court order, it remains to be seen if these important sources of information will remain accessible and updated going forward.

    The CDC also publishes the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, which allows for ongoing and timely surveillance of key health conditions. The reports cover a wide range of topics, including wildfires, motor vehicle accidents, autism, asthma, opioids, mental health and many others. The CDC plays a central role in monitoring and reporting the spread of flu in winter months through its FluView, which informs clinical practice as well as public health interventions.

    Physicians are reporting that their ability to respond to the surges in respiratory viruses they are seeing has been hobbled by the missing data and by prohibitions on CDC staff communicating outside the agency.

    The CDC’s famed “disease detectives,” part of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, appear to have been spared following public outcry after more than half of its members were initially told they would be let go as part of the Feb. 14 mass layoffs.

    It remains to be seen if this group will remain intact long term. Concerns are growing that shakeups to the nation’s infectious disease surveillance teams will hamper the government’s ability to respond effectively at a time when avian flu and measles are growing concerns in the U.S.

    The CDC’s headquarters are in Atlanta.
    Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

    History of the CDC

    The CDC began as a small branch of the U.S. Public Health Service in 1946 as an outgrowth of successes fighting malaria in southern states during World War II and before. Its founder, Dr. Joseph W. Mountin, envisioned that it would come to serve all states, addressing all communicable diseases. Since that time, the CDC has evolved into the nation’s premier public health organization, leveraging both clinical and population health sciences to prevent and mitigate challenges to the nation’s health.

    In its first 40 years, the CDC helped eradicate smallpox and identify the causes of Legionnaires’ disease, toxic shock syndrome and HIV.

    As the country’s primary health challenges have shifted from communicable diseases to noncommunicable ones over recent decades, the organization has adapted, expanding its reach and priorities to meet changing public health needs. The CDC also has the ability to flex and scale up efforts rapidly when needed to respond to novel outbreaks, which is essential for containing infectious diseases and preventing escalation.

    CDC’s global reach

    Recognizing that health does not exist in a vacuum, the CDC also operates internationally to mitigate health challenges that could threaten health in the U.S. over time. The agency is active in addressing diseases that are endemic in certain areas, such as tuberculosis and HIV. It also responds to outbreaks from emerging threats, like Ebola and Marburg virus disease.

    The CDC played a crucial role in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, coordinating with the World Health Organization, domestic health agencies and others to plan and execute a robust response.

    In 2024, the CDC worked with the WHO to respond to a Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda that lasted for several months. On average, about half of people infected with Marburg virus do not survive, so early detection and effective response are essential to prevent loss of life and contain outbreaks before they spread widely.

    On Jan. 20, 2025, the White House announced President Donald Trump’s plans to withdraw from the WHO. This move further weakens the country’s ability to manage and mitigate threats to Americans’ health and national security.

    Not only does the WHO do essential work to protect children around the world from needless death due to starvation, but it monitors and responds to infectious diseases. The U.S. has been the largest contributor to the WHO, with approximately 12%-15% of its operating costs coming from the U.S. That means that removal of U.S. support will also affect the WHO’s capacity to respond to international public health issues.

    As the COVID-19 pandemic made plain, a delayed response to infectious disease outbreaks can exponentially increase long-term costs and consequences. It remains to be seen what impact the established relationships between the CDC and the WHO will have on their ability to coordinate effectively during times of crisis.

    The CDC’s work around the world helps to stop outbreaks before they spread – and reach the U.S.

    Future health care workforce threatened

    The reach, flexibility, adaptability and robust foundation of relationships developed over the past eight decades enable the CDC to respond to threats quickly, wherever in the world they arise. This is important for protecting health, and it plays a vital role in global and national security as well.

    In addition to its direct actions to promote public health, the CDC provides workforce development and training to help create an enduring public health infrastructure in the U.S. and abroad. This is more important than ever, as systemic factors have placed pressure on health professionals. The domestic public health workforce has shrunk drastically, losing 40,000 workers since the start of the Great Recession in 2009 due to economic constraints and social pressures during the pandemic. The CDC’s workforce development efforts help counteract these trends.

    Public health workers were reporting high rates of burnout and stress even before the COVID-19 pandemic, which the pandemic worsened. Cuts to the federal workforce, as well as funding for public health programs, will no doubt add to these strains.

    Jordan Miller received funding from CDC in the past.

    – ref. CDC layoffs strike deeply at its ability to respond to the current flu, norovirus and measles outbreaks and other public health emergencies – https://theconversation.com/cdc-layoffs-strike-deeply-at-its-ability-to-respond-to-the-current-flu-norovirus-and-measles-outbreaks-and-other-public-health-emergencies-248486

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: In pushing for Ukraine elections, Trump is falling into Putin-laid trap to delegitimize Zelenskyy

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Lena Surzhko Harned, Associate Teaching Professor of Political Science, Penn State

    President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet on Sept. 25, 2019, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

    Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was shut out of the discussions concerning the future of his country, which took place in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 18, 2025. In fact, there were no Ukrainian representatives, nor any European Union ones – just U.S. and Russian delegations, and their Saudi hosts.

    The meeting – which followed a mutually complimentary phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin just days earlier – was gleefully celebrated in Moscow. The absence of Ukraine in deciding its own future is very much in line with Putin’s policy toward its neighbor. Putin has long rejected Ukrainian statehood and the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, or as he calls it the “Kyiv regime.”

    While the U.S. delegation did reiterate that future discussions would have to involve Ukraine at some stage, the Trump administration’s actions and words have no doubt undermined Kyiv’s position and influence.

    To that end, the U.S. is increasingly falling in line with Moscow on a key plank of the Kremlin’s plan to delegitimize Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government: calling for elections in Ukraine as part of any peace deal.

    Questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy

    Challenging Zelenskyy’s legitimacy is part of a deliberate ongoing propaganda campaign by Russia to discredit Ukrainian leadership, weaken support for Ukraine from its key allies and remove Zelenskyy – and potentially Ukraine – as a partner in negotiations.

    Claims by the Russian president that his country is ready for peace negotiations appear, to many observers of its three-year war, highly suspect given Russia’s ongoing attacks on its neighbor and its steadfast refusal to date to agree to any temporary truce.

    Yet the Kremlin is pushing the narrative that the problem is that there is no legitimate Ukrainian authority with which it can deal. As such, Putin can proclaim his commitments to a peace without making any commitments or compromises necessary to any true negotiation process.

    Meanwhile, painting Zelenskyy as a “dictator” dampens the enthusiastic support that once greeted him from democratic countries. This, is turn, can translate to the reduction or even end of military support for Kyiv, Putin hopes, allowing him a fillip in what has become a war of attrition.

    What Putin needs for this plan to work is a willing partner to help get the message out that Zelenskyy and the current Ukraine government are not legitimate representatives of their country – and into this gap the new U.S. administration appears to have stepped.

    Then-candidate Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a polling station during Ukraine’s presidential election in Kiev on March 31, 2019.
    Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)

    Dictating terms

    Take the narrative on elections.

    At the meeting in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. reportedly discussed elections in Ukraine as being a key part of any peace deal. Trump himself has raised the prospect of elections, noting in a Feb. 18 press conference: “We have a situation where we haven’t had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law.” The U.S. president went on to claim, incorrectly, that Zelenskyy’s approval rating was down to “4%.” The latest polling actually shows the Ukrainian president to be sitting on a 57% approval rating.

    A day later, Trump upped the attacks, describing Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections.”

    Such statements echo Russia’s narrative that the government in Kyiv is illegitimate.

    The Kremlin’s claims regarding what it describes as the “legal aspects related to his [Zelenskyy’s] legitimacy” are based on the premise that the Ukraine president’s five-year term as president of Ukraine should have ended in 2024.

    And elections in Ukraine would have taken place in May of that year had it not been for the martial law that Ukraine put into place when the Russian Federation launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

    The Martial Law Act – which Ukraine imposed on Feb. 24, 2022 – explicitly bans all elections in Ukraine for the duration of the emergency action.

    And while the Ukrainian Constitution only includes language regarding the extension of parliament’s powers until martial law is lifted, constitutional lawyers in Ukraine tend to agree that the implication is that this also applies to presidential powers.

    Notwithstanding what the law says, the Kremlin’s questioning of the democratic institutions of Ukraine and its push for elections in Ukraine have found traction in Washington of late. Trump’s special envoy Gen. Keith Kellogg declared on Feb. 1 that elections “need to be done” as part of peace process, saying that elections are a “beauty of a solid democracy.”

    The ballot box trap

    Zelenskyy is not opposed to elections in principle and has agreed that elections should be held when the time is right. “Once martial law is over, then the ball is in parliament’s court – the parliament then picks a date for elections,” Zelenskyy stated in a Jan. 2 interview.

    And he appears to have the backing of the majority of Ukrainians. In May 2024, 69% of Ukrainians polled said Zelenskyy should remain president until the end of marshal law, after which elections should be held.

    The issue, as Zelenskyy has said, is the timing and circumstances. “During the war, there can be no elections. It’s necessary to change legislation, the constitution, and so on. These are significant challenges. But there are also nonlegal, very human challenges,” he said on Jan. 4.

    Even opposition politicians in Ukraine agree that now is not the time. Petro Poroshenko, Zelenskyy’s main political rival, has dismissed the idea of wartime elections, as has Inna Sovsun, the leader of the opposition Golos Party.

    Apart from logistical problems of ensuring free and fair elections in the middle of a war, the conflict would present logistical hurdles to campaigning and accessing polling sites. There is also the question of whether and how to include Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories and those who are internally displaced, as well as the 6.5 million who fled fighting and currently reside abroad.

    Good elections … and bad

    Russia did, of course, hold elections during the current conflict. But the 2024 election that Putin won with 87% of the vote was, according to most international observers, neither free nor fair.

    Rather, it was a sham vote that only underlined what most political scientists will confirm: Elections are at best a necessary but insufficient marker of democracy.

    This point is not wasted on Ukrainians, whose commitment to democracy strengthened in the years leading up to the 2022 invasion. Indeed, a survey taken a few months into the war found that 76% of Ukrainians agreed that democracy was the best form of governance – up from 41% three years earlier.

    There are other reasons Ukraine might be wary of elections. The adversarial nature of political campaigns can be divisive, especially among a society in high stress.

    Ukrainian politicians have openly argued that holding an election during the war would be destabilizing for Ukrainian society, undermining the internal unity in face of Russian aggression.

    Outside influence

    And then there is concern over outside influence in any election. Ukrainians have had enough experience with Russian meddling in their politics to take it for granted that the Kremlin will attempt to put a thumb on the scale.

    Russia has since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 employed its substantial resources to influence Ukraine’s politics through all available means, ranging from propaganda, economic pressures and incentives to energy blackmail, threats and use of violence.

    In 2004, Moscow’s electoral manipulations in favor of the pro-Russian candidate, Viktor Yanukovich, led to the Orange Revolution – in which Ukrainians rose up to reject rigged elections. Nine years later, Yanukovich – who became president in 2010 – was deposed though the Revolution of Dignity, which saw Ukrainians oust a man many saw as a Russian stooge in favor of a path toward greater integration with Europe.

    Putin’s history of meddling in elections extends beyond Ukraine, of course. Most recently, the Romanian Constitutional Court annulled the country’s presidential elections, citing an electoral process compromised by foreign interference.

    An impossible position

    In raising elections as a prerequisite to negotiations, Putin is setting a
    “catch-22” trap for Ukraine: The Ukrainian Constitution states that elections can happen only when martial law is lifted; but the lifting of the martial law is possible only when the “hot phase” of the war is over. So without a ceasefire, no election is possible.

    But in refusing to agree to elections, Ukraine can be cast as the blockage to any peace deal – playing to a narrative that is already forming in the U.S. administration that Kyiv is the problem and will need to be sidelined for there to be progress.

    In short, in seemingly echoing Russian talking points on an election being a prerequisite for peace, the U.S. puts the Ukrainian government in an impossible position: Agree to the vote and risk internal division and outside interference, or reject it and allow Moscow – and, perhaps, Washington – to frame Ukraine’s leaders as illegitimate and unable to negotiate on the behalf of their people.

    Lena Surzhko Harned does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In pushing for Ukraine elections, Trump is falling into Putin-laid trap to delegitimize Zelenskyy – https://theconversation.com/in-pushing-for-ukraine-elections-trump-is-falling-into-putin-laid-trap-to-delegitimize-zelenskyy-250003

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The success of the Delta Flight 4819 rescue effort highlights the need for co-ordinated responses

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jack L. Rozdilsky, Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, Canada

    The day after the Delta Flight 4819 crash on Feb. 17 at Toronto Pearson International Airport, the damaged aircraft remained on the runway as the crash investigation ramped up.

    Whether it was due to luck, skill, heroism or aircraft design, the evacuation of passengers took place quickly and everyone aboard the ill-fated flight were able to exit the plane and make it on to the tarmac.

    Post-accident investigations will provide more details about what contributed to the accident, and the strengths and weaknesses of the emergency response. But one point is already obvious: the positive outcome speaks to the importance of the institutions and expertise that keep our aviation system safe overall.

    The response

    The response to Delta Flight 4819 air crash was an example of just how important inter-agency collaboration is in emergency response.

    Within minutes of the crash, not only were the airport’s firefighters on the scene to douse any flames and assist with the rescue of passengers, but other agencies were already providing aid. Mississauga Fire and Emergency Services sent six vehicles to the airport as part of the mutual aid effort.

    The news conference following the accident involving Delta Flight 4819 at Toronto Pearson Airport.

    Ornge, Ontario’s air ambulance system, also sent multiple units to the scene to help transport injured passengers to hospitals, aiding Peel Region paramedics who were also triaging passengers.

    Multiple agencies collaborated to save lives. This collaboration in emergency response isn’t developed on the fly, but instead follows a highly choreographed and practised set of plans.

    Both the airport and partner agencies maintain air crash emergency response plans that lay out the details of how help will be requested, where aid will arrive and how to scale up the response as needed.

    Preparation facilitates response

    A primary reason the air crash response worked so well was preparation. An important component of preparation at airports is regularly testing response plans and operations with specialized full-scale mock disaster exercises.

    In these exercises, airport response personnel work through scenarios that simulate emergencies. Real emergency equipment is tested, volunteer victims participate in search-and-rescue scenarios and theatrical make-up is even used to simulate injuries.

    These exercises serve multiple purposes, including increasing familiarity with the plan for responders and creating real challenges that will help to find any potential weaknesses in the plan before a real event.

    Practice saves lives

    Another less desirable way responses can be improved is for an actual disaster to happen. Actual air crash disasters force plans to be activated, require response actions to be taken, and — ideally — foster adaptive learning through hard-won experience.

    According to data from the Aviation Safety Network, there have been 23 aircraft accidents at or near Pearson Airport since 1939. As a testament to safety at Pearson, no casualties occurred in 18 of those 23 accidents.

    One past significant Pearson crash with no casualties is especially relevant to revisit now. In August 2005, Air France Flight 358 rolled off the runway during landing and caught fire.

    All 309 people on board evacuated and survived. An organizational analysis of the 2005 accident highlighted that the crash investigation report “praised the seamless tracking of events and communication between the parties involved” in response.

    Twenty years later, and Pearson CEO Deborah Flint said the crew, airport emergency workers and first responders mounted a “textbook response” to the Delta incident.

    An investigation begins

    While the immediate response may have been over fairly quickly after passengers were successfully evacuated, the mutual aid and collaboration between agencies will continue in the months ahead.

    The Transportation Safety Board (TSB) has already launched an investigation into the incident. The cockpit voice and flight data recorders have been retrieved from the wreckage, a key aspect in what will be a slow and methodical investigation.

    The integrity of the investigation depends on strong institutions and trust in experts. In the context of air crashes, lessons learned from these investigations are critical to improving airline procedures for maintaining safety, creating better regulation to avoid accidents in the first place and ensuring emergency systems are well prepared.

    Safety in aviation

    According to the most recent TSB data, the 2023 overall air transportation accident rate of 2.8 per 100,000 aircraft movements is among the lowest recorded by the federal agency since it began measuring in 2004.

    Within the first 24 hours after the Delta crash, a pivot from the emergency response phase to the investigation phase took place.

    It’s far too early to speculate on what the ultimate cause of the accident may have been. While learning about what contributed to the crash of Delta Flight 4819 is important, we can also seek comfort in the fact that air travel in Canada continues to be a safe activity for passengers.

    Jack L. Rozdilsky receives support for research communication and public scholarship from York University. He also has received research support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.


    – ref. The success of the Delta Flight 4819 rescue effort highlights the need for co-ordinated responses – https://theconversation.com/the-success-of-the-delta-flight-4819-rescue-effort-highlights-the-need-for-co-ordinated-responses-250211

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s cuts to newcomer English language programs puts communities’ well-being at risk

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Natalia Balyasnikova, Assistant Professor of Adult Education, York University, Canada

    The impact of of Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s 2024-25 department plan, released about a year ago, are only now starting to become clear in cities across Canada.

    Whether it’s colleges in Vancouver, Lethbridge or Toronto, many federally funded English-language training programs are experiencing crushing funding cuts resulting in closures, layoffs and fewer classes available.



    Read more:
    To really narrow digital divides, Canada should consistently fund adult education programs

    At risk is the future of Language Instruction for Newcomers to Canada (LINC) — a federally funded program that has been running since 1992.

    Instead of further cutting funding to LINC, the government should expand the programming in recognition that learning a language is about much more than acquiring a discrete set of skills.

    Importance of language programs

    The LINC program has 60 assessment sites across the country and has served roughly 50,000-60,000 learners per year.

    Language learning programs expecting to receive the most significant cuts will be those focused on building employment skills and preparing learners for higher education.

    Rather than the reducing barriers to newcomers’ employment as promised, the changes will make it more difficult for newcomers to access the language learning programs needed for work and life.

    Immigration is central

    The IRCC states “immigration is central to our future” and that its sustainable development strategy remains committed to addressing the barriers to employment and social belonging that newcomers face.

    While not without critique, LINC classes have an important function beyond helping newcomers acquire language skills.

    Through these programs, newcomers build confidence to be able to advocate for themselves, develop a sense of citizenship, contribute to values of equality, respect and rights and access resources essential for life in Canada. All of these contribute to one’s sense of belonging.

    Addressing connection, community

    There is strong evidence that learning in groups reduces isolation, loneliness and feelings of unbelonging, and increases sense of community and connection for immigrants.

    Research shows that learning activities that have goals beyond developing practical language skills such as drama and poetry are opportunities to build a sense of community, empowerment and belonging to facilitate intercultural dialogue.

    They also contribute to the development of learners’ resilience and leadership.



    Read more:
    Theatre shows how the art of inclusion can help build a better Canada

    A vision for sustainability

    Canada is often portrayed as a tolerant and welcoming country, a stronghold of multiculturalism and multilingualism. Canada has made promises to build a nation that is economically, socially and culturally prosperous.

    To make this promise sustainable, it is essential to continue addressing the complex needs of newcomers, especially by ensuring access to inclusive and quality education throughout their lives.

    IRCC’s choice to cut funding is influenced by a short-term economic model that seems to forget that nearly 20 per cent of Canada’s population are new permanent residents.

    These residents should have access to learning offerings and intercultural socialization opportunities. These would ideally include offerings centred on critical conversations, discussions of shared experiences, visions for life in Canada and building allyships between new immigrants and long-time citizens. Such learning, socialization and relationship-building opportunities could be made accessible through LINC.

    Social stratification concerns

    By reducing funding available for English-language classes, the federal government is denying thousands of people their fundamental right to education. The current budget cuts will inevitably contribute to growing social stratification and increase the challenges faced by the already overwhelmed immigration and educational sectors.

    A recent statement by TESL Ontario, the certification body for educators who teach English as another language in Ontario, urges the Canadian government to consider impacts on language teachers who face precarious employment and low pay, a concern shared by unions across the public sector.

    Language learning programs are foundational to ensuring sustainable settlement in Canada. A truly sustainable development strategy would see the continued funding of English-language programs as essential to ensuring the continued economic and societal well-being of all people living in Canada.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada’s cuts to newcomer English language programs puts communities’ well-being at risk – https://theconversation.com/canadas-cuts-to-newcomer-english-language-programs-puts-communities-well-being-at-risk-249103

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canadian flight attendants are pushing for fair ground pay amid union negotiations

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kenneth Haggett, Master’s Student, Women and Gender Studies, Saint Mary’s University

    Canadian flight attendants and their union, CUPE’s airline division, have faced chronic workplace issues for the past four decades. Notably, their union has been pushing the federal government and airlines for equitable pay since 2022.

    A key development came in June 2024 when Conservative MP Lianne Rood proposed Bill C-409 to the House of Commons, which would compensate attendants for training and ground time, which includes tasks like aircraft preparation, boarding, deplaning and safety demonstrations.

    However, the Conservative Party of Canada did not consult with CUPE’s airline division in tabling Bill C-409, and CUPE has expressed their uncertainty regarding the Conservative Party’s support.

    In October 2024, NDP MP Bonita Zarrillo tabled Bill C-415, which goes further by requiring attendants to be paid for all hours worked at their full rate of pay. CUPE and the NDP Party have collaborated to push for this bill.

    The issue of unpaid ground time first gained media attention in May 2022 but has been a long-standing concern among flight attendants.

    Industry labour issues

    Flight attendants in Canada work approximately 35 uncompensated hours per month, according to CUPE Airline Division President Wesley Lesosky.

    Attendants are only paid while the aircraft is in the air, meaning ground tasks and delays are unpaid. Flight attendants may work a 10- to 12-hour shift, but only be paid for six to eight hours.

    In the past, attendants were compensated well enough to cover ground duties, but stagnant wages and the current cost-of-living crisis in Canada have left attendants poorly compensated.

    Though the union primarily focuses on organizational inequities resulting in unpaid ground time, flight delays are a major cause of such extended, unpaid hours by prolonging attendants’ duty time.

    While some negotiations have been reported between airlines and the union, such as Air Transat and Air Canada, few deals have been made, leaving flight attendants uncompensated for ground duties.

    Unions mobilize against unpaid ground time

    To call public attention to the issue, the union staged demonstrations in April 2023 and May 2024.

    While the union has sought to avoid taking strike measures — likely due to non-strike provisions in collective agreements — it could legally take job action after March 31 if negotiations fail. Union members could then vote to strike.

    CUPE’s airline division began to renegotiate union agreements with Air Canada in mid-December, ahead of the March 2025 contract expiration. The union’s primary focus is to make better bargains with employers surrounding unpaid ground time. Ideally, new agreements would compensate flight attendants for all hours worked, not simply time spent in the air.

    A Feb. 3 update from the union reveals that, while negotiations are steadily progressing, the process remains lengthy and complex. To strengthen its position, the union has commissioned legal and research professionals to aid in the negotiation of benefits, pensions, wage increases and scheduling changes, among others.

    As sociologists focusing on labour relations, we conducted a literature review on historical trends within the Canadian airline industry, digging deeper into structural issues leading to unpaid ground time.

    Our research has found that the neoliberal shifts of the 1980s are a major determinant of attendants’ deteriorating working conditions. Over time, rising corporate austerity has placed attendants’ wages on the back burner.

    Structural roots of unpaid ground time

    The issue of unpaid ground time is not an isolated issue in the airline industry, but a byproduct of broader economic and labour trends.

    Our findings highlight how neoliberal economic policies — particularly the wave of deregulation and privatization in the 1980s — have strengthened corporate power while weakening unions’ bargaining capacity.

    Founded in 1948, Canada’s first flight attendant union, the Canadian Air Line Flight Attendants’ Association (CALFAA), focused on addressing attendants’ health, safety and wage concerns.

    But with the neoliberal push to deregulate and privatize the industry, CALFAA’s challenges were amplified. In response, CALFAA voted to merge with CUPE — Canada’s leading union — to extend their influence, becoming CUPE’s airline division.

    Yet the growing emphasis on corporate profit continues to erode union power to secure and maintain fair pay and equitable workplace standards. Bargaining processes have become increasingly difficult, with arbitrators often favouring corporate interests.

    State-imposed anti-strike provisions from previous years have curtailed unions’ ability to strike against unfair conditions. Successful airline lobbying has also threatened workplace safety, as indicated in a 2015 case of pilot duty time.

    As airlines continue to compete in a “race to the bottom” to minimize expenses and maximize profit, flight attendants continue to face unpaid labour issues. Federally supported through bailouts and bankruptcy protections, airlines have been pandered to at the expense of airline workers.

    A lack of state and corporate response to the issue at hand indicates the prioritization of austerity over Canadian flight attendants’ financial well-being. Without meaningful policy changes, key issues like unpaid ground time will remain chronically neglected.

    Looking ahead

    Though unpaid ground time is presented as the major issue within the workplace, the extensive, unpaid labour required of flight attendants can lead to poorer mental health, chronic fatigue and other health concerns that pose risks due to their impact on attendants’ ability to perform safety duties.

    With contract negotiations underway, CUPE’s airline division has an opportunity to push for better working conditions and pay structures that reflect all hours worked.

    Canadian airlines must address the issue of unpaid labour and, ultimately, implement more equitable workplace standards for flight attendants.

    Whether airlines and the federal government will indeed act on these demands remains to be seen. Yet the growing pressure from unions and political figures suggests the fight for fair pay is far from over.

    Lauren Cormier, an undergraduate student in sociology at Trent University, co-authored this article.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canadian flight attendants are pushing for fair ground pay amid union negotiations – https://theconversation.com/canadian-flight-attendants-are-pushing-for-fair-ground-pay-amid-union-negotiations-238959

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Will Trump’s tariffs boost the US economy? Don’t count on it

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lukasz Rachel, Assistant Professor of Economics, UCL

    It’s hard to keep up with all the tariff announcements coming out of Washington. On February 1, the US president, Donald Trump, announced the introduction of 25% tariffs on most imported goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% levy on goods from China. The tariffs against Canada and Mexico were soon postponed by a month following some token gestures.

    A week after that, Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. These tariffs are set to take effect on March 12, a few days after the broad tariffs against Canada and Mexico supposedly come to pass. Trump has now vowed “reciprocal” duties on countries that target products made in the US.

    This may all sound very familiar. Trump imposed tariffs during his first presidency – for example, on steel and aluminium imports in 2018. Studies of this policy are already available. They show that the tariffs led to rising raw material costs and weakened the competitiveness of US manufacturers.

    It is also true that the subsequent US-China trade war of 2018 and 2019 did not collapse the US or global economy. But the tariffs this time round are more comprehensive and cover a larger number of key products and trading partners. Unlike the previous tariffs on China, which were introduced gradually, the current restrictions are to be introduced in one move.

    Dubious justification

    Trump justified the tariffs on Canada and Mexico as a measure to counter the “serious threat” posed by illegal immigration and the influx of drugs, including fentanyl, across US borders. It is difficult to take such an explanation seriously.

    The fentanyl problem essentially exists at the southern border. In 2024, US Customs seized about 19kg of fentanyl at the border with Canada, compared with nearly 9,600kg at the Mexican border. The same is true for migrants. Imposing tariffs on Canada therefore makes little sense.

    The more likely reason for all of Trump’s tariffs lies in his desire to protect domestic producers from foreign competition. Trump and his strategists often refer to the need to reduce the US trade deficit with the rest of the world.

    The basic problem is that in today’s world of globalised supply chains, many components are imported. Goods often cross borders multiple times before reaching consumers in their final form. A good example is the automotive production complex near Detroit, where semi-assembled cars frequently cross the Canadian-American border.

    It is difficult to predict what effect Trump’s tariffs would have on such organised production. But they would probably amount to a very expensive and inefficient reorganisation of production processes. If the tariffs on Canada go ahead, Canadian and American companies, as well as their employees, would suffer.

    Not all areas of production would be affected so drastically. But for the many components that are imported into America, an increase in their prices would translate into cost pressures. This may lead to financial problems for American companies, layoffs or higher prices for final goods.

    A steel and aluminium door is welded at General Motors’ automobile factory in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
    John Gress Media Inc / Shutterstock

    Paradoxically, tariffs could also decrease the competitiveness of American production, at least when it comes to sales in third markets. Cost pressures caused by more expensive components will affect US manufacturers, but not rival manufacturers in, say, China or Europe – at least until they have responded with a trade war.

    Another reason why Trump’s logic may not work is the US dollar exchange rate. The dollar has soared in recent months, especially when Trump has spoken about tariffs, rising more than 5% against the euro since the election. These moves weaken the competitiveness of American manufacturers on global markets.

    That said, Trump has often expressed his desire for a weaker dollar and, following the delay in the implementation of the tariffs, it has come down in value.

    But, notwithstanding this, US businesses are by no means delighted. The tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China were condemned by groups such as the American Chamber of Commerce. And the Wall Street Journal described the move as “the stupidest trade war in history”.

    That’s not all. The primary effect of tariffs is an increase in the price of imported goods. If prices go up, consumers will be less than enthusiastic. High price levels were, after all, a key part of why Trump won November’s election.

    The direct inflationary impulse from the announced tariffs is not, so far, catastrophic. While the inflationary effects of tariffs are not a given, many economists fear they will trigger a mechanism of increasing inflation expectations. This may happen, especially given the likelihood of retaliation by affected countries.

    Before Trump had paused the tariffs, the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, had announced retaliatory levies of 25% on American goods worth a total of US$107 billion (£84.9 billion). Canada is also considering restrictions on exports of critical minerals crucial to the US tech industry.

    China, on the other hand, announced retaliatory tariffs and measures against US businesses including Google. And the EU has stood firm on its plans to retaliate should Trump implement tariffs against the bloc.

    Should they arise, higher inflation expectations may prompt the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. According to recent research, the increase in the cost of credit is a serious reason for dissatisfaction among American consumers and companies alike.

    Reducing the trade deficit

    If tariffs don’t help consumers and hurt a significant number of domestic producers, perhaps they can at least close the US trade deficit? Unfortunately, they also miss the mark here.

    Economists agree that the deficit is due to macroeconomic conditions – specifically, the balance between national investment and saving. The US has a surplus of investment relative to savings, so borrows money from the rest of the world.

    This is, simply put, because the US economy does not produce as much as the American people consume. When net domestic debt increases, the trade deficit also increases because the borrowed money is spent on foreign goods and services.

    Reducing the trade gap can be done through policies that lower domestic debt. Either households and businesses must save more, or government deficits must shrink. In this sense, tariffs are a poor tool.

    Trump’s tariff strategy will create havoc. This will bring opportunities as well as challenges. Europe and other affected countries should stand united against Trump’s tariff threats, responding firmly while promoting trade liberalisation across the world at the same time.

    Lukasz Rachel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will Trump’s tariffs boost the US economy? Don’t count on it – https://theconversation.com/will-trumps-tariffs-boost-the-us-economy-dont-count-on-it-249621

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Censorship, abortion and the ‘threat within’: what a free speech expert thinks of J.D. Vance’s remarks to Europe

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eric Heinze, Professor of Law, Queen Mary University of London

    Donald Trump is famous for his attacks on journalists and the media. He has banned critical reporters from official events, threatened them with lawsuits, and branded mainstream outlets the “enemy of the people”. Since last year, the US has dropped ten notches on the World Press Freedom Index. Now in 55th place, the country trails far behind many European and other democracies.

    It is ironic, then, that vice president J.D. Vance dashed to the Munich Security Conference last week to scold Europeans for their supposed failings on free speech and democracy.

    Speaking to European leaders, Vance fretted: “The threat that I worry the most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor.” Rather, it is “the threat from within”. This rehashing of tropes about “the enemy within” forms part of a Trumpist vocabulary borrowed from the most sinister 20th century autocracies.

    One of Vance’s key claims for the decline of free speech in Europe left many UK observers dumbfounded. He rebuked the Scottish government for sending out letters in October 2024 cautioning citizens that, in his words, “even private prayer within their own homes may amount to breaking the law”.

    Vance was referring to Scotland’s Safe Access Zones Act, which prohibits protesters from gathering within 200 metres of clinics that perform abortions. Yet his accusation teaches volumes about Trumpism. To call it distorted would be diplomatic: it is a bold-faced lie. The Scottish government has confirmed that letters sent to residents near safe access zones did not instruct people to stop praying in the privacy of their homes.

    However, the letters did advise against conduct such as displaying anti-abortion posters or banners, or protesting on their property in ways that might be seen or heard within proximity of the clinics, or might encourage such activity in those areas.

    The Scottish law echoes similar laws in other democracies, including several US states. Yes, the right to protest is essential to democratic societies, but these societies have always accepted that protesters must not harass or threaten citizens going about their everyday business, let alone when seeking essential services such as medical appointments.

    Admittedly, “buffer zones” around abortion clinics cannot and need not extend so far as to impede protesters’ freedoms of expression, so a debate about the precise reach of the Scottish law can and should take place. However, as observed in England and Wales, zones have not generally been drawn with excessively broad perimeters.

    Clearly, Vance’s eyes were more fixed on his own future presidential bid, playing more to religious fundamentalists back home than to anyone who might seriously care about free expression. His 18-minute speech invoked God three times, and “prayer” nine times, while saying nothing about the main issue for which delegates had gathered: Russia’s unprovoked onslaught on Ukraine.

    Curiously, Vance whispered not a word of criticism about UK government crackdowns on the kinds of protests that, in the US, Trump most fears, such as protests against specific government policies and practices.

    I should not have to point out that anti-abortionists in Scotland remain entirely free to proclaim their opinions, in public and in print, alongside countless other types of political expression. Such expression has long been recognised as protected under UK law, and enshrined in the Human Rights Act.

    The only impact of Scotland’s new law is to prevent residents living within 200 metres of such clinics from displaying placards or holding events that would target women visiting such facilities. Admittedly, someone “only standing and praying” nearby a clinic may present a borderline case – but well within bounds that can be assessed through our democratic processes, the very processes that Trump loyalists increasingly disdain.

    We can debate the rights and wrongs of the Scottish law, but any suggestion that it seriously abridges free speech – when compared to the kinds of incursions Trump himself wages – would be farcical.

    Admittedly, while Scotland rightly protects its medical facilities, some people will ask whether a law can legitimately reach so far as to regulate the opinions that people wish to display in their windows and gardens. In recent years, many UK homes have flown Ukrainian or Palestinian flags from their homes, which some neighbours may find inappropriate. Yet British law protects their rights to do so.

    Clearly then, we can have meaningful debates about how far free expression in the home extends, but nothing in what Trump officials have said or done on their home turf suggests that this is their real concern.

    Free speech in retreat?

    As it happens, Vance was not totally wrong when he mused: “In Britain and across Europe, free speech, I fear, is in retreat.” For years, Hungarians have faced relentless attacks on free speech under Viktor Orbán – the autocrat whom Trump followers, including Vance himself, have so often praised.

    On several occasions in The Conversation and elsewhere, I have advocated free speech and I have every intention to continue doing so. I am also willing to concede that, despite Trump’s compulsive attacks on free speech, his supporters have raised some valid concerns about the stifling of opinion on the left.

    Abortion exemplifies the type of issue that sparks widespread ethical controversies. Any democracy must ensure that speakers on all sides have safe means of expressing their views in the public arena. Everyone in today’s democracies could use a few lessons in free speech – and the Trump team tops the list.

    Eric Heinze has received past funding from the European Union.

    – ref. Censorship, abortion and the ‘threat within’: what a free speech expert thinks of J.D. Vance’s remarks to Europe – https://theconversation.com/censorship-abortion-and-the-threat-within-what-a-free-speech-expert-thinks-of-j-d-vances-remarks-to-europe-250188

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trust in politics is in long-term decline around the world – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Viktor Valgarðsson, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow in the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Southampton

    Pro-Trump rioters stormed the US Capitol building to protest against the result of the 2020 presidential election. 72westy / Shutterstock

    Citizens’ trust in their political institutions has been falling around the world. This may not come as a shock to many.

    British politics has been in chaos since the Brexit referendum in 2016. Rioters stormed the US Capitol in protest against the result of the 2020 presidential election. And the US president, Donald Trump, is continuing to attack the supposed “deep-state” controlling American politics. None of these things scream public trust in government.

    But declining political trust is not self-evident. It’s possible that we may be too focused on a couple of countries that dominate our attention, and a lot has been going on in recent years that could explain the situation that we find ourselves in.

    Many researchers have also pointed out that people have never been particularly fond of politics. They suggest that we’ve simply been seeing “trendless fluctuations” in trust – ebbs and flows where we happen to notice declines more than rises or stability.

    In a recently published study, my co-authors and I took on this debate. We analysed more data on political trust than previous studies, from over 5 million respondents to 3,377 surveys conducted in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019.

    Our models suggest that, at least since 1990, trust in parliament and government has indeed been declining by an average of about 8.4 and 7.3 percentage points respectively in democratic countries across the world.

    The same does not apply to trust in non-representative “implementing institutions”, such as the civil service, justice system or police. In fact, we find that trust in the police has increased by about 12.5 percentage points across democracies on average over the same period.

    Thus, declining trust in government appears to be rooted in how politics is practised, which is seemingly less inspiring to citizens today, rather than in a growing distaste for social institutions in general.

    Global trends in trust in six types of institutions in democratic countries between 1990 and 2019.
    Valgarðsson et al. (2025) / British Journal of Political Science, CC BY-NC-ND

    Of course, this global picture masks a more nuanced story. Political trust has been rising in a few smaller countries: Denmark, Ecuador, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. These nations may chart a path forward for the rest of the democratic world.

    Conversely, trust in the legal system has been declining in many countries in eastern Europe and Latin America. The same appears to be the case more recently in the US, suggesting that implementing institutions are not immune to the political trust crisis.

    Our findings do not answer why citizens of democracies are gradually losing faith in their democratic institutions, or what the consequences could be. They also do not suggest how trust in politics can be rebuilt. But what we do know is concerning.

    For instance, our data tells us that political trust was declining dramatically in Hungary right up until 2010, when Viktor Orbán was re-elected as prime minister (his first term ended in 2002). When in office, Orbán started dismantling the country’s constitutional and liberal democratic order.

    Trust in parliament, the legal system and the police in western Europe and North America.
    Valgarðsson et al. (2025) / British Journal of Political Science, CC BY-NC-ND

    We also know that the US has seen one of the more dramatic declines of political trust in recent times, and that political distrust was a powerful predictor of voting for Trump at least in the 2016 Republican primaries.

    In a survey conducted that year by American National Election Studies, about 24% of Trump’s primary voters said they would “never” trust the federal government to do what is right. This compared with about 9% of voters for rival Republican candidate John Kasich, and 8% and 4% of voters for Democrat candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton respectively.

    We do not yet have data for the 2024 US presidential election. But it does not take a political scientist to know that Trump leaned even more heavily on people’s distrust in government in his campaign. Since becoming president, he has stepped up his efforts to dismantle America’s constitutional and liberal democratic order.

    Declining political trust is not the only cause of these developments. We are also seeing illiberal candidates and parties doing increasingly well in countries where we didn’t see the same trust declines in our data. The rising popularity of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands or the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in Germany are both good examples.

    Some of this may be driven partly by more recent trust declines, like in the Netherlands where trust in parliament has dropped substantially since 2020. Or it could be driven by a polarisation of trust between a more trusting majority and a deeply distrusting minority. But much of it is also probably driven by other factors, such as economic distress, attitudes towards immigration and the “culture wars” of our day.

    It stands to reason that voters who deeply distrust the political establishment would tend to be attracted to populist leaders who rail against that establishment.

    These voters probably still support democracy as an ideal. Support for democratic principles has, in fact, remained high globally – although there are worrying signs among younger generations in US and UK. But these voters appear to be more willing to vote for politicians who will attack the institutions needed to make it work.

    Sceptical mistrust of government

    This brings us to one crucial question: are citizens right to distrust government? After all, political institutions haven’t been working all that well for a large portion of citizens – except maybe in areas like Scandinavia, where we have seen rising trust in recent times.

    A degree of sceptical mistrust of government is certainly vital for a healthy democracy. We are reminded of this by some of the more sobering points in our data.

    China has the highest rates of reported trust in the world, while Hungary and Russia have both seen rising trust levels as their governments have become less democratic and seized control of the media environment. Clearly, trust is not unequivocally good from a democratic perspective.

    Our challenge is to find the right balance: a climate of sceptical trust, where we hold our governments to account and engage critically with our institutions without throwing them away in favour of autocratic populists.

    To save the foundations of liberal democracy, we may need to rediscover its appeal to the ordinary citizen. If it’s something about the way politics is practised that citizens distrust, perhaps those politics need to change.

    Viktor Valgarðsson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trust in politics is in long-term decline around the world – new research – https://theconversation.com/trust-in-politics-is-in-long-term-decline-around-the-world-new-research-250078

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How refugee entrepreneurs are supplying sustainable energy to the camps they live in

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sarah Rosenberg-Jansen, Research Advisor on Humanitarian Energy, University of Oxford

    Refugees are providing energy within camps home to millions of displaced people around the world, my research has found.

    There are now more than 120 million forcibly displaced people globally. Although United Nations humanitarian agencies provide firewood and small electric lanterns, these are often not enough for most families.

    To make up the shortfall, entrepreneurial refugees in the camps I visited have become energy suppliers by establishing shops, phone charging stations, even cinemas.

    While visiting camps administered by the UN Refugee Agency in Rwanda, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda and other countries across Africa, I was struck by the hum of electricity and the smell of cooking in the camps’ markets. Energy was everywhere.

    A mobile phone and electronics market shop at the Kakuma refugee camp, Kenya.
    Sarah Rosenberg-Jansen, CC BY-NC-ND

    In all the camps I visited, people were selling clothes, cooking bowls and toys, as well as lighting and electrical appliances. These shops all used energy – computers totted up bills and printed receipts, radios played music, and people everywhere were using mobile phones and the internet. Fans and motors were working hard to keep things cool and the power on. Refugees buy these products at local markets – which are often run by refugees themselves.

    After conducting over 170 interviews with refugees and humanitarian practitioners, it became clear refugees buy their own energy to run many of these cafes and shops: buying their own diesel, generators, or electricity technologies including solar panels and batteries.

    Formal refugee energy access provided by humanitarian agencies or national governments is projected to be very low: Chatham House statistics suggest 94% of forcibly displaced people living in camps have no meaningful access to power, and 81% lack anything other than the most basic fuels for cooking.

    Renewable connections

    Local energy businesses operating around the camps in Rwanda and Kenya, such as BBOX or MESH Power, provide solar solutions such as selling solar panels and solar home systems from which refugees can have lighting, charge their phones and plug in electrical appliances. These renewable systems help to lower the costs – but sometimes the companies are not able to expand their businesses within refugee camps due to UN restrictions.

    As one of the refugees I spoke to in Rwanda explained: “You can see two types of solar business really. Those using energy that is easy to get to – off-the-shelf products and services – to keep the lights on in the night, or offer cool drinks or a fan. And those businesses where really energy is the business … where people can use solar home systems or other technologies.”

    Sadly, this picture is not uniform across the world. For example, buying diesel in refugee camps or purchasing kerosene for lanterns can be very expensive. Spending by displaced people on simple cooking fuels and technologies, as well as basic lighting, is estimated to be around US$200 (£160) per year per family, for less than four hours of energy a day.

    Buying from external energy suppliers often comes at great cost to refugee families as energy in refugee camps can be incredibly expensive. Estimates suggest that refugee households in Kenya and Burkina Faso spend between 15% and 30% of their income on energy – a figure that in the UK would mean a household was in a situation of extreme fuel poverty.

    In total, refugee households around the world spend at least US$2.1 billion (£1.68 billion) on energy each year.

    Refugee-led businesses

    In the face of such challenges, refugee energy entrepreneurs are expanding the range of energy services and products available to refugee communities in terms of sustainability: providing new solar solutions and electricity connections from solar-powered energy sources. For members of the refugee community who use this service, this can reduce the cost of energy.

    These refugee-led enterprises often start after refugees have saved or borrowed money from friends and family to start their energy businesses – for example, by buying a solar panel and battery and charging customers to use the electricity it generates. Sometimes referred to as micro-enterprises or energy entrepreneurs, they go beyond being passive users of electricity and become active participants in the energy economies of refugee camps.

    Examples of such businesses include Kakuma Ventures, based in Kakuma refugee camp in Kenya, which provides wifi and solar energy access to more than 1,500 people in the camps.

    A grid pylon next to refugee homes at Kigeme refugee camp, Rwanda.
    Sarah Rosenberg-Jansen, CC BY-NC-ND

    Another example is Patapia, based in camps in Uganda, which helps refugee women launch and grow businesses powered by clean energy. Successful refugee-led energy businesses are highlighted by the work of climate change charity Ashden through its Humanitarian Energy Award, and its support for local businesses leading the way on sustainable energy in humanitarian settings.

    Indeed, many new global initiatives and humanitarian programmes are starting to take seriously the role of refugee-led organisations and businesses. Take the work of Last Mile Climate, which is dedicated to helping grassroots initiatives, refugee-led businesses, charities, humanitarian agencies and government organisations tackle climate-related challenges.

    Refugees are also writing on this issue in the media, highlighting how important the issue of inclusivity is in delivering the sustainable energy transition in humanitarian contexts.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Sarah Rosenberg-Jansen received funding from the Independent Social Research Foundation (ISRF)

    – ref. How refugee entrepreneurs are supplying sustainable energy to the camps they live in – https://theconversation.com/how-refugee-entrepreneurs-are-supplying-sustainable-energy-to-the-camps-they-live-in-242862

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Expanding seaweed farms pose a risk to vital marine life

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Benjamin L.H. Jones, Chief Conservation Officer, Project Seagrass & Research Affiliate, Swansea University

    Seaweeds are commonly grown from long lines of rope. This string of _Eucheuma_ seaweed in Indonesia is positioned above a seagrass meadow. Benjamin Jones/Project Seagrass, CC BY

    Seaweed farming is a rapidly expanding global industry. As a food resource, it has high nutritional value and doesn’t need fertilisers to grow. Seaweed provides valuable habitats for marine life, takes up carbon and absorbs nutrients, plus it helps protect our coastlines from erosion.

    Usually, seaweeds grow on hard, rocky surfaces. Yet, to farm seaweed, potential areas need to be easily accessible and relatively sheltered. This is where seaweed can grow with limited risk of being dislodged by waves. Seaweed farms in Asia, in countries like China and Indonesia, are responsible for more than 95% of global seaweed production. Seaweed farms, particularly those in Southeast Asia, are commonly in the very same environments where seagrass meadows thrive. Competition for resources ensues.

    Evidence shows that tropical seaweed farms, when placed in or on top of tropical seagrass meadows leads to a decline in the growth and productivity of seagrass. There is also evidence that seaweeds outcompete seagrasses in cooler waters, especially when nutrients in the water are very high.

    Despite negative interactions, such as shading, between seaweed and seagrass, some scientists now advocate for a global expansion of seaweed farming in areas where seagrass grows. This call, comes at a time when seagrass global initiatives are trying to stem seagrass loss.

    Efforts are underway to expand these habitats to their once extensive range to help fight climate change and biodiversity loss. Seagrass meadows are a crucial store of carbon, providing habitats for a wide array of animals.

    Why farm seaweed on top of seagrass?

    The reason that some scientists are advocating for farming seaweed in seagrass is that their research claims that the presence of seagrass reduces disease causing bacterial pathogens by 75%. A major win for a relatively low tech industry where seaweed disease outbreaks hinder production. These scientists are not the only ones advocating for seaweed production at scale.

    Global conservation charities, like World Wildlife Fund and The Nature Conservancy, as well as the Earthshot prize launched by Prince William all support seaweed cultivation programmes in areas likely to contain abundant seagrass.

    However, together with other scientists, we have argued in an academic response in the journal PNAS that their claim is premature. We are concerned that, without appropriate management, these seaweed programmes threaten marine biodiversity and the benefits that humans get from the ocean.

    Despite historic and globally widespread seaweed cultivation, effects on seagrass have mostly been ignored. Where studies exist, effects have been negative for seagrass, its ability to capture carbon, and the diverse animals that call it home.

    Entanglement of migratory animals, such as turtles and dugong with seaweed also needs wider consideration. This is especially the case given new legal frameworks to protect their habitat, and there is ongoing concern for these species being killed by seaweed farmers. The equity of coastal fishing grounds also comes into question, as communities that use seagrass for fishing are most likely to lose access.

    Conservation charities advocate for tropical seaweed farms for good reason. This is to improve community resilience in the face of degrading coral reefs and overfishing.

    While projects mostly have the best intentions, they often don’t consider cascading unintended consequences, nor the equity of the whole community. In reality, seaweed farm placement is effectively akin to ocean grabbing (the act of dispossession or appropriation of marine resources or spaces) with farmers winning on a “first come, first serve” basis, despite not owning the seabed.

    Sustainable standards

    If seaweed farming is to be expanded, standards for sustainability must be upheld and strengthened. In 2017, a sustainable seaweed standard was launched by the Aquaculture and Marine Stewardship Councils.

    But few tropical seaweed farms meet the criteria outlined in this standard due to known consequences that affect seagrass (rightly defined in the standard as vulnerable marine habitats) and likely negative effects on endangered species, like dugong, that frequent seagrass habitats.

    Seaweed cultivation strategies have mixed evidence for long-term success. In Tanzania, many farmers have abandoned the industry due to low monetary rewards compared to the investments they put in, and some evidence suggests that the activity reduces income and health, particularly for women. Where seaweed cultivation has been implemented to reduce fishing pressure, it has instead increased (and often just displaced) fishing activity.

    Given the rapidly increasing threats faced by tropical marine habitats despite the role they play in climate resilience, understanding trade-offs prior to large scale expansion of seaweed farming is a priority. To reduce further any negative effects, international programmes and research advocating for large-scale seaweed farms need to align more readily with the seaweed standard.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Expanding seaweed farms pose a risk to vital marine life – https://theconversation.com/expanding-seaweed-farms-pose-a-risk-to-vital-marine-life-248329

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bolsonaro’s indictment over alleged coup plot signals shift in Brazil’s approach to political accountability

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Felipe Tirado, PhD Candidate in Law, King’s College London

    Brazil’s top prosecutor has filed federal charges against Jair Bolsonaro, alleging that the former president attempted a coup in 2023. Focus Pix / Shutterstock

    The Brazilian attorney-general has charged the country’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, with participating in a plot to cling to power through a coup d’etat in 2022. If Bolsonaro is convicted, he could spend between 38 and 43 years in prison.

    Bolsonaro, who governed Brazil between 2019 and 2022 but lost his attempt at re-election to current president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, is one of 34 people to be formally charged for offences related to the alleged coup. These include high-ranking serving and retired members of the military, as well as former ministers and politicians.

    The charges levelled against them are involvement in an attempted coup d’etat, violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, and criminal organisation.

    According to the attorney-general’s 272-page indictment, Bolsonaro became increasingly inclined to pursue anti-democratic measures in the months before the election. He allegedly considered taking steps to retain power even before the first round of voting.

    Then, after his defeat by an extremely narrow margin, the indictment claims that Bolsonaro and his alleged accomplices decided to implement the plan before Lula took office in January 2023.

    An investigation by Brazil’s federal police in November found that the insurrection in the country’s capital Brasília on January 8 2023, where rioters invaded the presidential palace, congress and supreme court, was part of this plan. The same investigation suggested the plan also included a plot to assassinate Lula and his vice-president Geraldo Alckmin, as well as supreme court judge Alexandre de Moraes.

    Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing and – at least in public – is bullish about his fate. Speaking to journalists hours before the charges were filed, he said: “I have no concerns about the accusations, zero.”

    The case will now be considered by the Supreme Court, whose judges will decide whether to initiate criminal proceedings against Bolsonaro and the other defendants. This is expected to happen over the coming weeks. If the judges accept the charges and proceedings are established, the defendants will be called to answer them.

    This is the first time in Brazilian history that high-ranking members of the armed forces have been indicted and charged with crimes associated with a coup d’etat. According to the indictment, the intention was for the armed forces to be called upon to act as a “moderating power”, with the aim of overturning the election result.

    Army generals Augusto Heleno, Walter Braga Netto and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira are among those who have been charged. These men served as ministers in the Bolsonaro government, with Braga Netto also running as the vice-president on Bolsonaro’s ticket in 2022.

    Another high-ranking member of the armed forces charged by the attorney-general is Almir Garnier Santos, the commander of the Brazilian navy. These four men were allegedly part of the inner nuclei that planned and prepared the attempted coup.

    Several other servicemen, including generals, colonels and other officers, were charged with crimes related to the planning and execution of the initial phases of the coup. The sentences for all of these men could amount to up to 30 years in prison.

    Like Bolsonaro, Braga Netto denies any guilt. In a statement released on February 18, his lawyers called the charges a “fantasy”. Lawyers for Garnier Santos and Heleno have chosen not to comment until having fully reviewed the charges.

    Unlike those in the military, some of the political figures charged by the attorney general had criminal antecedents. One of the politicians named in the indictment is Filipe Martins, Bolsonaro’s former international affairs adviser and a “disciple” of the deceased far-right polemicist, Olavo de Carvalho. Martins’ lawyers released a statement on February 18 calling the accusations “unfounded”.

    In December 2024, Martins was convicted of making a gesture alluding to white supremacy during a virtual session of the senate. He initially received a sentence of two years and four months in prison for inciting racial prejudice, which was replaced by 850 hours of community service.

    Far-right commentator Paulo Figueiredo Filho, the grandson of Brazil’s last military dictator, João Figueiredo, was also charged. He appeared on a podcast on February 19 to criticise the charge. Figueiredo lives in the US, where he was arrested in 2019 because of problems with his immigration status.

    Lessons from and to Brazil

    Brazil has already offered some lessons to other countries facing similar authoritarian challenges. Its response to the insurrection in Brasília was swift and robust. Within days, hundreds of rioters had been arrested and the state governor of the federal district was suspended for his sluggish response.

    Then, in 2023, Bolsonaro was banned from running for office for eight years over false claims that the electronic ballots used in the previous year’s election were vulnerable to hacking and fraud. Those involved with the attempted military coup have also been investigated and some subsequently arrested.

    But the coup plot case can also serve as a lesson to the country. Brazil has a history both of successful and unsuccessful military coups. The last successful military coup led to a dictatorship that lasted from 1964 until 1985.

    Brazil also has a history of amnesties, whereby crimes committed during these coups and authoritarian regimes have been pardoned. There have been 48 amnesties in Brazil since 1889, with the most recent one, in 1979, allowing the dictatorship to self-amnesty its crimes.

    For over 45 years, this amnesty hindered criminal accountability for the perpetrators of crimes. This included the murder of politician Rubens Paiva, whose disappearance was the focus of the 2024 Oscar-nominated film, I’m Still Here. The amnesty was declared void by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights in 2011.

    Bolsonaro and other individuals charged, as well as their supporters and aligned politicians, have been demanding a “humanitarian amnesty” for those who allegedly participated in the coup plot.

    Given Bolsonaro’s history, this seems paradoxical. Throughout his decades-long public career, Bolsonaro has consistently celebrated the crimes of the military dictatorship and supported violations of human rights. At the same time, he has also opposed individuals and organisations that advocate for victims of the dictatorship.

    If Bolsonaro and his alleged accomplices are found guilty, it could be an unparalleled lesson for Brazil. Punishing anyone convicted would be an opportunity to step away from the country’s tradition of impunity and move towards addressing systemic injustices.

    Felipe Tirado receives funding from the Centre for Doctoral Studies – King’s College London.

    – ref. Bolsonaro’s indictment over alleged coup plot signals shift in Brazil’s approach to political accountability – https://theconversation.com/bolsonaros-indictment-over-alleged-coup-plot-signals-shift-in-brazils-approach-to-political-accountability-250300

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ne Zha 2: the record-breaking Chinese animated film showcases China’s ambition on the global stage

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ming Gao, Research Scholar of East Asia Studies in History Division, Lund University

    Ne Zha is a legendary child warrior from Chinese mythology, often depicted as a rebellious deity who defies fate to carve out his own destiny. Born as a demon, feared for his supernatural powers and doomed to live only three years, he struggles to overcome his destiny and forge his own path.

    A new Chinese film about the warrior has broken several box office records, including becoming the highest-grossing animated film of all time (beating Pixar’s Inside Out 2).

    Ne Zha 2 is a Chinese animated fantasy adventure film. That it is breaking so many records might seem surprising. It’s a sequel to a film that didn’t do as well, it’s not American and it’s not in English. But its record-breaking run seems to show no signs of slowing down. After debuting during the Chinese Lunar New Year, its success has seen it premiere abroad in regions such as wider Asia, North America and Australia.

    For years, Hollywood has dominated China’s box offices, but the release of Ne Zha 2 marks a significant milestone in China’s cinematic and cultural expansion. Its unprecedented box office performance seems to signal a shifting dynamic in the global film industry.

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    It showcases China’s ambition and ability to produce world-class content that competes with western animation giants, like Disney and Pixar. It also plays a role in enhancing cultural confidence and soft power projection, which President Xi Jinping has emphasised for years.

    Capturing a feeling

    The story of Ne Zha, and its many adaptations, have long captivated Chinese people of all ages – including me. I fondly recall watching the 1979 version on a black-and-white TV with my family when I was little. The story originates from the Ming dynasty (1368 to 1644) novel Fengshen Yanyi (Investiture of the Gods) and over the centuries, it has been reinterpreted in various cultural forms of religion and literature.

    The original plotline of Ne Zha revolves around his rebellion against feudal patriarchal authority. This struggle is set against a backdrop of familial conflicts and even attempted patricide. In contrast, today’s reinterpretation recasts this mythological unruly child as a dutiful deity who fights for his clan’s interests by forging alliances, confronting rival factions and challenging the existing order.

    Ne Zha 2 trailer.

    As a commercial film, it has astutely tapped into the emotional needs of contemporary Chinese audiences in a society facing various challenges, such as economic downturn and rising unemployment. Themes of familial love and supportive parenting have struck a deep chord with Chinese audiences, offering both cultural and sentimental reassurance in uncertain times.

    Another clear resonance with domestic audiences lies in the themes of Chinese technological success and cultural excellence. This has cultivated a strong sense of cultural identity and national pride among Chinese people.

    In China, no words currently seem to better capture the feelings after watching the movie than “pride” and a sense of patriotism – both for the film’s visually striking animation techniques and for its depiction of China’s rich cultural traditions. However, the film needs to be understood within the broader contexts of China’s domestic landscape and its evolving position on the global stage.

    ‘Cultural confidence’

    Beyond entertainment, Ne Zha 2’s success fits within President Xi Jinping’s ideas on “cultural confidence,” which can be succinctly defined as a nation’s firm belief in the strength and vitality of its own culture. Since the film’s record-breaking performance, state media and various state-owned outlets have been actively echoing this narrative.

    People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China, equates Ne Zha to China’s cultural confidence as a means to expand soft power and navigate uncharted territory. This emphasis on cultural confidence, however, is not merely state-driven.

    Ne Zha.
    Enlight Pictures

    The film’s director, Jiao Zi, has expressed his confidence in China’s traditional culture, stating: “China’s stories don’t need to deliberately cater to the west.” Instead, he believes that traditional Chinese culture is a vast treasure trove of inspiration, which is interesting to all.

    Indeed, Ne Zha is not an isolated success in drawing inspiration from traditional Chinese culture. Last year’s Black Myth: Wukong, a record-breaking gaming blockbuster, gained global attention at the 2024 Game Awards (the Oscars of the video games industry). Like Ne Zha, it’s based on another legendary 16th-century Chinese novel Xiyouji (Journey to the West). China’s official news agency, Xinhua, characterised the enduring popularity of these ancient tales as “part of a broader cultural renaissance”.

    Ne Zha’s success is emerging as a key example of China’s growing cultural identity, aligning with the cultural confidence discourse. A foreign ministry spokesperson has described Ne Zha as “a new bridge for exchanges” and “a fresh window for the world to see China”.

    Whether Ne Zha 2 achieves lasting international success remains to be seen. But one thing is clear – Chinese animation is no longer just for domestic audiences. The film’s popularity reflects China’s broader ambitions to expand its soft power alongside its growing economic and strategic influence.

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    – ref. Ne Zha 2: the record-breaking Chinese animated film showcases China’s ambition on the global stage – https://theconversation.com/ne-zha-2-the-record-breaking-chinese-animated-film-showcases-chinas-ambition-on-the-global-stage-249899

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bilingual children with special educational needs may be missing out on support in England

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Johny Daniel, Assistant Professor, School of Education, Durham University

    Rido/Shutterstock

    English isn’t the first language of over 20% of pupils in schools in England, and this proportion is rising. The children in this group who also have special educational needs or disabilities may be falling through the cracks, missing out on support that would help them succeed.

    My recent research analysed data from 2.5 million English primary school pupils. The findings show that bilingual learners with special educational needs especially struggle with reading. They trail behind both their peers without special educational needs, and other children with special educational needs who speak English as their first language.

    When a pupil has a special educational need such as specific learning difficulties or autism, their language hurdles can make it harder to see the real cause of their challenges. Sometimes, a child’s limited English masks a disability. Other times, disabilities may be confused with language problems. This confusion can delay the help they need.

    Reading is particularly a problem because strong vocabulary and language-processing skills are needed, and the extra task of learning English can slow them down in this area. Maths may rely less on advanced English, so the gap is often smaller in that subject.

    Research suggests that if bilingual pupils with special educational needs get strong support in the early years, they can catch up significantly.

    The right support

    One useful method is data-based decision-making. This means teachers and special needs coordinators regularly track progress in reading, writing or maths. For example, teachers might assess oral reading fluency or brief writing samples to measure progress. By spotting which pupils are falling behind, they can provide small-group tutoring, phonics help or targeted vocabulary lessons.

    Pupils also benefit from clear, structured lessons that focus on reading and writing. They may also need extra time to practise and may learn better if the same vocabulary is taught in different ways, such as through games or acting.

    In addition, research shows that when teachers use examples or stories that reflect different languages and cultures, pupils stay more engaged. This “culturally responsive” teaching boosts children’s language skills.

    Relating lessons to a child’s experiences can help keep them engaged.
    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    For example, a case study on culturally responsive teaching for bilingual learners with disabilities has shown that connecting lessons to students’ own cultural and linguistic backgrounds can boost both their language skills and their reading comprehension.

    The teacher in the study combined explicit instruction – such as teaching vocabulary or grammar – with discussions in small groups that drew on experiences from the students’ own lives. Her pupils saw significant improvements in literacy that underscores how culturally responsive methods can help bilingual children succeed.

    Room for improvement

    Another way to improve the situation for these children would be better assessments of whether they need additional support.

    My research with colleagues has found that most bilingual pupils in England are not assessed for dyslexia in their first language, which can mask their true skills and needs. If schools allow pupils to be tested in their home language, or at least use bilingual materials, they can get a clearer picture of each pupil’s progress.

    Funding for specialised training is also needed. Schools need resources to hire or develop experts who understand both language learning and disabilities. Educational psychologists, for instance, or English-as-a-second-language teachers with expertise in special educational needs, can provide this much needed support.

    Ofsted inspectors should also check how schools use regular progress monitoring data to adjust teaching for bilingual pupils with special educational needs. If data use becomes a core part of good practice, more schools may be inspired to invest in it.

    The evidence shows many bilingual learners with special educational needs can catch up, or even surpass their peers, if they receive the right support early on. Yet too often, these children are seen only as “language learners,” with their disabilities overlooked, or they are treated as having a disability, while their language needs get ignored.

    We already know strategies that work. By using detailed progress tracking, culturally responsive teaching, and targeted language instruction, schools can close the gap and make sure bilingual pupils with special educational needs and disabilities do not fall behind.

    Johny Daniel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bilingual children with special educational needs may be missing out on support in England – https://theconversation.com/bilingual-children-with-special-educational-needs-may-be-missing-out-on-support-in-england-246822

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How satellites revolutionised climate change science

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Will de Freitas, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    aappp / shutterstock

    Until relatively recently, humans were limited by the horizon. Climate scientists of the early 20th century could gather data from the world around them and perhaps what they were able to see from a hot air balloon or plane. But the really big picture – the global snapshot – remained out of sight.

    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    The first satellite of any kind was the USSR’s Sputnik 1, launched in 1957. But it wasn’t until the 1960s that satellites designed specifically to observe the Earth and its climate made it into orbit and gave us the first overview of weather patterns. By the 1970s Nasa’s Landsat satellites were able to monitor things like tree cover.

    Jonathan Bamber, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol, says this “revolutionised our ability to carry out a comprehensive and timely health check on the planetary systems we rely on for our survival”. Data that once required months or even years of fieldwork was suddenly available in the time it took a satellite to orbit the planet.

    These days, this data can be remarkably precise and detailed. Bamber says: “We can measure changes in sea level down to a single millimetre, changes in how much water is stored in underground rocks, the temperature of the land and ocean and the spread of atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gases, all from space.”

    Here’s a map of sea level rise, from Bamber’s article highlighting five satellite images that show how fast our planet is changing:

    The sea is rising quickly – but not evenly.
    ESA/CLS/LEGOS, CC BY-SA

    “This image,” writes Bamber, “shows mean sea level trends over 13 years in which the global average rise was about 3.2mm a year. But the rate was three or four times faster in some places, like the south western Pacific to the east of Indonesia and New Zealand, where there are numerous small islands and atolls that are already very vulnerable to sea level rise.”



    Read more:
    Five satellite images that show how fast our planet is changing

    In recent years, scientists have used AI to sift through and analyse satellite data. Bamber’s latest research, published in January this year, illustrates this nicely.

    A team of scientists, lead by Tian Li also of the University of Bristol, gathered millions of satellite images of glaciers in Svalbard, a remote and icy archipelago in the Arctic Ocean. In their write up, they note that human researchers once painstakingly looked through this sort of data.

    “This process”, they write, “is highly labour-intensive, inefficient and particularly unreproducible as different people can spot different things even in the same satellite image. Given the number of satellite images available nowadays, we may not have the human resources to map every region for every year.”

    Their solution was to use AI to “quickly identify glacier patterns across large areas”. The satellite-AI combo meant they could examine Svalbard’s retreating glaciers – surely among the least accessible places on the planet – in “unprecedented scale and scope”.

    They found that 91% of the many glaciers that flow into the sea around the archipelago have been “shrinking significantly”. They note that the same types of glacier can be found across the Arctic, and “what happens to glaciers in Svalbard is likely to be repeated elsewhere”.



    Read more:
    We built an AI model that analysed millions of images of retreating glaciers – what it found is alarming

    Many of those glaciers can be found in Greenland, home of the northern hemisphere’s largest ice sheet. In research published earlier this month, Tom Chudley of Durham University used satellite images to assess crevasses (cracks in the glaciers) in Greenland.

    A large glacier in west Greenland flows into the sea. That iceberg filled fjord is several miles wide.
    Copernicus Sentinel / lavizzara / shutterstock

    Chudley also combined satellite images with computerised analysis. His work made use of “ArcticDEM”, three dimensional maps of the polar regions based on high resolution satellite images.

    “By applying image-processing techniques to over 8,000 maps, we could estimate how much water, snow or air would be needed to “fill” each crevasse across the ice sheet. This enabled us to calculate their depth and volume, and examine how they evolved.“

    His conclusion was very blunt: the Greenland ice sheet is falling apart.



    Read more:
    The Greenland ice sheet is falling apart – new study

    Health watchdogs

    Many of you will be well aware that satellites are being used to monitor the health of the planet. What’s less well known is the role they can play in monitoring human health.

    Dhritiraj Sengupta, a satellite scientist at Plymouth Marine Laboratory, says satellites have become Earth’s new health and nature watchdog. His article details how satellites can map mosquito breeding sites to combat malaria, for instance, or can identify air pollution hotspots in cities.

    In his own research, he’s used satellite-derived chlorophyll data to assess the risk of cholera. Chlorophyll is the green pigment in plants that helps them use sunlight to make their food and grow.

    “Many bacteria like Vibrio cholerae which causes cholera, thrive in stagnant water,” Sengupta writes. “My team worked with the European Space Agency to show that its presence can be modelled using the concentration of chlorophyll found on the surface of bodies of water.”



    Read more:
    How satellites have become Earth’s new health and nature watchdogs

    So far, so good. Satellites have undeniably been useful for climate scientists. But in the longer-term, the satellites themselves may have an unforeseen effect on the climate.

    Last year, SpaceX announced it would “deorbit” 100 of its Starlink satellites to burn up in the atmosphere. Fionagh Thomson is a space expert, also at Durham University. She says that “atmospheric scientists are increasingly concerned that this sort of apparent fly-tipping by the space sector will cause further climate change down on Earth.”

    Particles from the satellites themselves won’t have a huge effect compared to the “440 tonnes of meteoroids that enter the atmosphere daily, along with volcanic ash and human-made pollution from industrial processes on Earth.”

    But one team “recently, and unexpectedly, found potential ozone-depleting metals from spacecraft in the stratosphere, the atmospheric layer where the ozone layer is formed.” The worry is that satellite debris may help form certain types of clouds that lead to ozone loss and may add to the greenhouse effect.

    She notes that this is all uncertain and needs more research. “But,” she writes, “we’ve also learnt that if we wait until indisputable evidence is available, it may be too late, as with the loss of ozone. It’s a constant dilemma.”

    Something for SpaceX scientists to look into, perhaps, once they’ve finished rescuing stranded astronauts from the International Space Station.



    Read more:
    Satellites are burning up in the upper atmosphere – and we still don’t know what impact this will have on the Earth’s climate

    – ref. How satellites revolutionised climate change science – https://theconversation.com/how-satellites-revolutionised-climate-change-science-250312

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Team conflict at work can boost creativity, but it depends on the ‘fighters’ as much as the fights

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Brad Harris, Professor of management, associate dean of MBA programs, HEC Paris Business School

    For many corporate teams, the notion of “good conflict” is merely a myth. Most often, conflict is seen as a roadblock to success–especially when it involves clashing personalities or disagreements over strategy. But what if, in certain cases, the right kind of team conflict fuels creativity? That’s the idea behind our new research, which suggests that, handled well, some team fights might just be the key to sparking fresh ideas.

    And it turns out that who is in conflict can make all the difference.

    Researchers have long explored how team conflicts affect creativity, with some arguing that the right conflict can boost creativity, and others saying that conflict erodes it. Unfortunately, the findings have been all over the place so far. A common research approach has been to lump all conflict into the same bucket, or to separate task-centered conflict and relationship-oriented conflict and then assume they affect everyone in the team equally. But as we’re learning, these approaches might be too simplistic.

    Newer research, including our own, suggests that considering the roles of individual team members, and particularly their network status in the team, can paint a much clearer picture of how conflict can affect creativity. In particular, conflicts involving “critical members”–those who play a central role in a team’s workflow–seem to be where the real action is.

    The (sometimes) bright side of conflict

    In any team, disagreements about the task at hand–such as how to distribute resources, make decisions or handle workflow – are bound to happen. These are known as “task conflicts”. And traditional research has often considered such disputes as potentially helpful, arguing that they can bring in new perspectives, spur discussion and, if managed properly, enhance team creativity. That said, data often tell a different, more complicated story. We started our research as an attempt to reconcile some of the inconclusive results.

    Using network analysis, which is a way to explore the unique interactions and relationships between individuals, in 70 new product development teams, we found that task conflicts involving critical members of a team can indeed spark creativity by pushing the team to reflect on their work. But this is only under certain conditions. Specifically, critical members’ task-related disagreements seem to have creative potential when they occur in teams that report higher levels of shared goals. These results hold even when accounting for all other task conflicts in the team.

    Here’s how it works: when a critical member – the one others depend on for essential information – engages in task conflict, teams are forced to take a step back, reassess what’s happening and consider new approaches. It pushes the team out of autopilot mode and, so long as team members are aligned with shared goals, it encourages a mindset of flexibility and fresh ideas, which are the lifeblood of creativity. Absent shared goals, we don’t really see much creative benefit from critical members’ task conflicts, which is not surprising – why do the hard work of questioning the status quo if you don’t agree on the outcome you want? As it turns out, much of what we have traditionally assumed about and measured in task conflict does not really help us understand how it is conducive to creativity; what happens with the critical members in the center of a team’s network is where the fruits of diverse thinking can emerge.

    The dark side of conflict

    On the flip side, personal spats – known as “relationship conflicts” – have a different effect. These are conflicts that aren’t really about the work itself, but rather stem from personality clashes or interpersonal issues.

    Past research has been pretty clear about the negative effects of team relationship conflict on creativity, but our work shows that when these conflicts involve critical members, the effects are even more deleterious. Namely, critical members’ interpersonal conflicts erode the team’s cohesion, i.e., the “glue” of the group, which destroys the trust and safety needed to try new, creative things.

    When critical members possess high levels of emotional intelligence, the worst of these negative effects can be mitigated. In short, emotional intelligence helps these key players handle personal tensions in a way that keeps the team together, even when conflicts pop up. So, once again, our study’s findings emphasize that the way conflict affects teamwork is largely dependent on how the people in the center of the network experience it.

    Practical takeaways

    So, what can leaders do to harness the creative potential of conflict while minimizing its downsides? Here are a few actionable steps:

    Get crystal clear on goals: By establishing common goals, leaders create an environment where task conflicts are more likely to be constructive. When team members are all pulling in the same direction, disagreements about how to get there can be resolved more productively, driving the team to reflect and adapt in creative ways.

    Coach for emotional intelligence: Because relationship conflicts involving critical members can harm cohesion, it’s essential to equip these key players with the emotional skills needed to manage personal tensions. Often, star individual contributors find themselves in the center of a team’s network because of their task-related skills, not because of their interpersonal ones. This is a dangerous recipe! Selecting for or coaching on emotional intelligence can help set critical members up to handle conflicts in ways that don’t damage team unity, preserving the group’s creative potential.

    Reconsider conflict: Recognize that not all conflicts are equally disruptive – or equally beneficial. A well-designed team structure will consider both the roles of critical members and how conflicts involving them can shape team dynamics. Leaders can look at conflict not just as a problem, but as a potential driver of creativity, depending on who is involved and how it’s handled.

    Overall, traditional research on team conflict treated task and relationship conflicts as if they affect everyone equally. This might explain why we still know relatively little about links between conflict and creativity. Thanks to advances in how we explore team data using more complex network analyses, we can see that conflict involving critical members disproportionately affects team dynamics and creativity – and start identifying ways to manage conflict in more productive ways.

    Brad Harris ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Team conflict at work can boost creativity, but it depends on the ‘fighters’ as much as the fights – https://theconversation.com/team-conflict-at-work-can-boost-creativity-but-it-depends-on-the-fighters-as-much-as-the-fights-247934

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Deportation fears create ripple effects for immigrants and their communities

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kristina Fullerton Rico, Research Fellow, Center for Racial Justice, Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan

    U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials detain a person on Jan. 27, 2025, in Silver Spring, Md. AP Photo/Alex Brandon

    The Trump administration’s plan to deport millions of immigrants living in the country without permission is falling far short of its initial goals in its first few weeks.

    But there has been an increase in immigration raids in multiple cities, including Los Angeles and Miami, since Trump took office.

    After Trump’s inauguration, rumors of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents roaming the streets or showing up at churches and schools have spread on social media and messaging apps, sending waves of panic in immigrant communities from coast to coast.

    When I share my research on the effects of U.S. immigration policies, I find that most people intuitively understand how being deported can upend someone’s life.

    In fact, research shows that deportation, and the risk of deportation, impacts more than just the person who is deported.

    Deporting immigrants often separates individuals from their families, exiles them to countries that don’t feel like home, and leaves them poor, with few job prospects.

    Immigrants who are deported also face social stigmas that lead to further isolation and mental health conditions, including depression, anxiety and risk of suicide.

    An undocumented immigrant from Guatemala who plans to leave the country in February 2025 is seen at home with his son in Dover, Ohio, in January.
    Rebecca Kiger for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    A family matter

    Immigrants in the country without permission tend to belong to mixed-immigration-status families, meaning that at least one family member has legal permission to be in the country or has citizenship.

    In some cases, mixed-status families feel pressure to leave the U.S. together if one family member is deported.

    Researchers call this phenomenon “de facto deportation.” It frequently affects young, U.S.-born children whose parents are deported.

    Legal scholars argue that deporting the parents of these young U.S. citizens violates these children’s citizenship rights. Though these children are citizens, their parents’ deportations push them out of the country and away from the lives they would have had in the U.S.

    In other cases, families separate when a mother, father or other adult guardian is deported. This is especially true for immigrants who are deported to dangerous places. Families are also likely to separate if a family member requires specialized medical care for a disability or chronic illness.

    But it is not just actual deportations that cause harm.

    The fear of deportation

    Even when immigrants do not face an immediate risk of deportation, the way they live their lives is shaped by the threat of removal.

    In hostile political climates, including the current moment in the U.S., immigrants feel the risk of deportation acutely.

    Some researchers call the fear of deportation “deportability.” This feeling has a chilling effect, discouraging immigrants from the everyday activities they would otherwise do.

    So far, immigrants’ fear is likely disproportionate to the risk of deportation. But the threat looms so large that immigrants and their families have upended their lives.

    Business owners, teachers and religious leaders across the country have noticed immigrants’ glaring absence in neighborhoods that are usually bustling and now feel deserted.

    In some cases, immigrants are keeping their children home from school. Others avoid going to doctor’s appointments or delay going to the hospital.

    Hostility toward immigrants also has a chilling effect on cultural expression.

    Research shows that Latino immigrants who fear deportation or anti-immigrant prejudice feel coerced to assimilate. They avoid speaking Spanish or their Indigenous language, like Quechua or Náhuatl, in public, and may even hesitate to teach it to their own children.

    Similarly, it can feel dangerous to play music or partake in cultural traditions.

    Spillover effects

    Research has also found that the threat of deportation makes immigrants hesitant to report dangerous conditions at work. Since immigrants are overrepresented in dangerous industries, like construction and meatpacking, this can lead to a higher risk of being injured or even dying on the job.

    Because local law enforcement agencies increasingly cooperate with federal immigration authorities, immigrants may also avoid going to the police – even when they are victims of violent crimes.

    Even in cities where local law enforcement agencies refuse to work closely with ICE, the perception that they might be creates fear in immigrant communities and leads people to underutilize public programs and services.

    People who have permission to be in the country are also afraid

    The fear of immigration enforcement can also extend to a person who speaks a foreign language, is a person of color, or otherwise seems like they might be in the country without permission.

    Perhaps the most striking example of this consists of recent reports that Native American citizens living in Southwest states like Arizona have been increasingly questioned by ICE. In response, Navajo Nation President Buu Nygren has advised people to carry proof of their U.S. citizenship.

    Nonwhite U.S. citizens’ fears of being deported are not unprecedented.

    In the 1950s, many U.S. citizens of Mexican ancestry were deported under President Dwight Eisenhower’s mass deportation operation. Trump credits Eisenhower’s program, officially called “Operation Wetback,” after the racist slur, for inspiring his current mass deportation plans.

    More than half a century later, the U.S. Government Accountability Office reported that between 2015 and 2020, ICE likely arrested 674 U.S. citizens, detaining 121 and deporting 70 of them.

    The entrance to a church in Chicago had a sign on its door on Feb. 10, 2025, informing ICE officials that they were not allowed to enter the building without a court order.
    Luzia Geier/picture alliance via Getty Images

    A sense of despair

    Not surprisingly, anti-immigrant policies and threats can elicit feelings of hopelessness among immigrants. The fear of deportation can lead to significant mental health problems for immigrants and their loved ones, ranging from conditions like anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder to a loss of trust in others and social isolation.

    Children experience fear and confusion about the future of their lives and that of their families.

    Hopelessness can lead to immigrants leaving the country on their own accord. This can happen because immigrants see no future for themselves in the U.S.

    Similarly, immigrants who are detained by government authorities may agree to voluntary departure orders rather than fighting to remain in the country.

    Some consequences of the fear of deportation and anti-immigrant hostility are easy to see, like when children miss school.

    Others – delaying doctor’s appointments, going hungry instead of going to the food bank, tolerating abuse instead of seeking help – are harder to observe, and their negative effects may not be evident for years.

    Kristina Fullerton Rico’s research has received funding from the Russell Sage Foundation and Sociologists for Women in Society.

    – ref. Deportation fears create ripple effects for immigrants and their communities – https://theconversation.com/deportation-fears-create-ripple-effects-for-immigrants-and-their-communities-248817

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –