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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sally Rooney’s new novel, Intermezzo, is her longest and best consideration of “idiotic desire and love” yet

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Orlaith Darling, PhD Candidate, Contemporary English Literature and Critical Theory, Trinity College Dublin

    On the level of theme, the Irish writer Sally Rooney is firmly in her wheelhouse in her new novel Intermezzo. We find Peter and Ivan Koubek having just lost their father and trying to forge a life through and past this bereavement by way of intimate relationships.

    Peter, a barrister in his early 30s, is embroiled in a semi-secret situation-ship with a much younger college student and former sex worker, Naomi. He balances this with his longstanding and largely chaste relationship with a former long-term girlfriend, Sylvia.

    Ivan, a decade younger and aeons less suave than his older brother, has meanwhile taken up with Margaret, a 36-year-old woman he meets while playing chess in Leitrim, a county in the north-west of Ireland.

    So far, so familiar. Anyone seeking plot-driven fiction without a romantic bent from Rooney should know better by now.

    The minor stylistic differences between Intermezzo and her other books reviewers have noted are all moderated by the manifest continuities in Rooney’s authorly concerns.

    We read Rooney because she is that unusual writer whose characters raise serious and abiding questions about the particular historical, social and economic moments they inhabit. Her characters manage to do so without ever feeling like anything less than fully developed, psychologically complex individuals.

    In Conversations with Friends and Normal People, the faltering of young relationships and first love tested the characters’ ideologies against their behaviours, their politics against their morals. In Beautiful World, emails allowed Alice and Eileen the space to describe what it feels like to live in a moment of historical crisis even as life (in the alternating chapters) carries on unchanged.

    This very Rooney-esque tension is, in Intermezzo, parlayed as a struggle between brothers, where Peter castigates various beliefs of Ivan’s and Ivan accuses Peter of privileging principle over conduct.

    Ivan thinks that “Peter is the kind of person who goes along the surface of life very smoothly.” This, for the record, is not at all reflected in Peter’s inner monologue, which proceeds via truncated sentence fragments and is peppered by wishes that he was dead.

    Life, for Peter, seems to be closing in, and is all the more claustrophobic given the seemingly total clarity with which he remembers “When life was perfect.” He at once envies and feels a great depth of compassion for those whose lives are constantly buffeted by the material forces from which his well-paying job shields him.

    Ivan has, at various times, felt himself existing outside of life. He can explain eloquently his opinions on the late capitalist economy (fake), he has a physics degree, a formidable reputation in competitive chess and a history of subscribing to questionable YouTube channels of a distinctly incel flavour. Yet, in Ivan, we see Rooney’s great optimism for people and how they might be redeemed.

    Ivan frequently confronts the difficulty of paying rent, of living in a world where a person cannot do something as prosaic as have a dog. But these problems are tempered by a feeling that the world is nevertheless beginning to open up for him. As he muses, it is surely better to face down these “never-ending struggle[s]” with optimism than be worn down by them. When he meets Margaret, he feels increasingly assured that the world does “make room for goodness and decency.”

    This newest book is perhaps Rooney’s most mature reflection on how relationships operate as exercises in optimism, both in each other and in the world itself. Intermezzo is remarkable and bracing on the exchange of promises that happens in relationships, on the currency of hope they run on, and mutual, voluntary emotional debts they create. These debts, of course, are not always repaid, and that is part of the point: the stakes of love are high, and we run the risk of defaulting and being defaulted on.

    And yet, for Rooney, this risk is always worth taking. It must be, because it is all there is. Rooney’s is a world in which relationships sustain us and in which small daily miracles make life seem more bearable than is proportionate. This might be as simple as the unthinking care enacted by such an everyday chore as “making up [a] packed lunch, Nutella sandwiches, an apple wrapped in kitchen roll” for someone else, or the unrationed totality of love a dog shows its owner after an absence.

    As with each of her novels before this, Rooney’s power as a writer is to focus attention on the crazy hope we place in other people’s ability to sustain us and the anxiety we feel about what we could possibly offer in return. And, against all suggestions of departure, this is the main point of continuity across Rooney’s oeuvre.

    Rooney appears to share the views of many of her characters. Like Frances in Conversations with Friends who says “[y]ou live through certain things before you understand them. You can’t always take the analytical position”. Like Marianne in Normal People who believes that “people can really change one another”. Like Eileen in Beautiful World who hopes that “the most ordinary thing about human beings is not violence or greed but love and care.” And, like Ivan in Intermezzo, she is an optimist.


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    Orlaith Darling receives funding from the Irish Research Council.

    – ref. Sally Rooney’s new novel, Intermezzo, is her longest and best consideration of “idiotic desire and love” yet – https://theconversation.com/sally-rooneys-new-novel-intermezzo-is-her-longest-and-best-consideration-of-idiotic-desire-and-love-yet-239535

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Loneliness may not make you ill after all, says new study – but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t tackle it

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Louise Arseneault, Professor in Developmental Psychology at the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London

    Magdalena kluczny/Shutterstock

    When was the last time that you felt lonely? It’s an uncomfortable question, but for 3.83 million people in the UK, 7.1% of the population, the answer is probably “right now”.

    Loneliness has become a worrying public health matter because it is common and is often associated with people experiencing physical and mental health problems. There is now taxpayers’ money being spent at the local, national and international levels on initiatives to minimise loneliness and the harmful effect it can have on people’s health. But are those investments misjudged?

    New research from Guangzhou Medical University in China has challenged the notion that loneliness can cause ill health. Instead, the findings suggest that loneliness might be considered an associated feature for many diseases (a so-called “surrogate marker”) as it was shown to not be a root cause for poor physical and mental health.

    The researchers used data from the UK Biobank in which over half a million people aged 37 to 73 were asked to report how often they felt lonely. They conducted analyses based on the distribution of genetic variants in the population (known as “Mendelian randomisation”) to test the causal effect of loneliness on a wide range of diseases, including physical and mental health problems.

    This is certainly an interesting study; however, there are several points we must consider when reflecting on the findings. It is important to note that UK Biobank data isn’t the best for testing the causal effects of loneliness on health.

    Although many participants have taken part in UK Biobank, they are volunteers who tend to be white, older and have higher levels of education than the general population in the UK. Many of the participants also follow a healthier lifestyle than the population as a whole.

    Although loneliness doesn’t discriminate and can affect anyone, at all ages, and from all walks of life, this participation bias can influence the findings as it may conceal important associations.

    The study also captured a snapshot of loneliness from a single time in adulthood. We all experience loneliness from time to time, but its effect on health depends at what age a person feels lonely, why they feel lonely and for how long. This detail isn’t captured in this data.

    Some of our own research in this area shows that mental health difficulties and poor general functioning are often experienced alongside feelings of loneliness. However, our findings also show that loneliness in early adolescence can have long-lasting effects, especially related to education and employment prospects –– so-called “socioeconomic outcomes”.

    This study also measured loneliness in participants in their late 30s and older. Again, previous research has shown that loneliness can start early in life and is associated with later depression and poor socioeconomic outcomes, both of which are shown in this paper to be important factors associated with health.

    The ideal is to conduct analyses with data from studies that observe people from childhood to old age, and which have measured loneliness earlier in life and health in later life to best understand the links between loneliness and health.

    Also, this study used hospitalisation data to determine health outcomes. While this type of data is valuable, it captures information only from participants who seek treatment and represents the tip of the iceberg when it comes to diseases. Loneliness may affect health in more subtle ways that won’t be caught here.

    This is not to be over-critical of the study, however. The importance of depression and socioeconomic status as mechanisms through which loneliness translates into poor health is an essential message from this study. For example, loneliness may result in difficulties at work or worsening mental health, which could in turn increase a person’s risk of physical disease.



    Read more:
    The loneliness myth: what our shared stories of feeling alone reveal about why you can’t ‘fix’ this very human experience

    Identifying surrogate markers of poor health is also valuable as it opens the door to better and earlier ways to support vulnerable people. For example, someone may not feel comfortable revealing that they experience symptoms of depression, but they are fine with talking about their feelings of loneliness. Loneliness may act as a red flag in some circumstances. This is especially important when diseases are accompanied by stigma, such as many mental health conditions.

    Loneliness is intertwined with a range of health conditions throughout life and is considered both a contributing factor to and an outcome of poor health. This study acknowledges that.

    Loneliness has a complex relationship with health

    To measure the importance of loneliness for public health relevance solely as a causal factor oversimplifies its complex and intricate relationships with health. This is where further research using data that is representative of the general population is needed. It would allow researchers to unpick the pervasive role of loneliness in shaping health and wealth for all people.

    What this study cannot answer is an important question: should we continue to invest in initiatives designed to tackle loneliness as a means of improving population health? As ever, the answer is not a binary one.

    While this study may not report a causal relationship between loneliness and diseases, ample evidence indicates that it precedes, accompanies and results from poor health. Current strategies have proven to be limited in their effectiveness, particularly for people with lower incomes and less education.

    If we consider the occurrence of loneliness alongside mental health difficulties and low socioeconomic status, and a better understanding of the mechanisms that underpin loneliness, we might find these initiatives become more effective.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Loneliness may not make you ill after all, says new study – but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t tackle it – https://theconversation.com/loneliness-may-not-make-you-ill-after-all-says-new-study-but-that-doesnt-mean-we-shouldnt-tackle-it-239436

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ancient DNA helped us uncover the Iberian lynx’s potential secret weapon against extinction

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Johanna L.A. Paijmans, Postdoctoral research fellow in Zoology, University of Cambridge

    Many large mammals have lost genetic diversity, often thanks to the actions of people shrinking their populations. The implications can be severe because without genetic diversity, a population does not have a “genetic database” to fall back on to adapt to environmental change.

    The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) is no stranger to this reduction in diversity. Human activity has driven populations to dangerously low numbers, leaving them with a shrinking genetic pool. This loss threatens the lynx’s ability to adapt to changing environments, putting their survival at risk.

    Our team’s research reveals how the Iberian lynx interbred with its cousin, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) over the past few thousand years. This mingling may have boosted the Iberian lynx’s genetic diversity. This is a crucial factor for its survival, especially as the species faces such an uncertain future.

    Low genetic diversity can lead to “inbreeding depression”, where closely related animals breed and produce offspring that are less fit for survival. In extreme cases, this can push entire populations, or even species, to the brink of extinction.

    To boost the genetic diversity of populations on the brink, conservationists sometimes turn to “genetic rescue”. This involves introducing individuals from different populations in the hope that they will breed with the local animals, reducing inbreeding and enhancing genetic diversity.

    While this strategy can be effective, it’s not without risks. Introducing animals that are too genetically different can disrupt or dilute beneficial traits, potentially harming the population’s ability to survive and reproduce. It’s a phenomenon known as “outbreeding depression”. Despite these risks, genetic rescue remains a valuable tool in conservation, though it’s often approached with caution.

    One of the most severe cases of reduced genetic diversity is the Iberian lynx, once the world’s most threatened cat species. It’s mostly found in parts of Spain and Portugal.

    Rescue and recovery

    Today, the Iberian lynx is recovering from near extinction. More than 400 reproductive females were reported in the 2023 census. This is a massive increase from just 25 in 2002. This turnaround is largely thanks to an ambitious conservation programme over the past two decades, involving coordinated breeding programmes and reintroductions.

    Part of this success is due to the “genetic rescue” effect, where mixing the two remaining genetically distinct populations helped boost the species’ genetic diversity. Despite this progress, the Iberian lynx still faces significant challenges. The population is far from reaching the minimum of 1,100 reproductive females needed to be considered genetically viable. So, its genetic diversity remains one of the lowest ever recorded.

    Further genetic rescue could be a solution to enhance diversity. But there’s a catch – no other Iberian lynx populations exist in the world that could serve as a source of new genetic material.

    The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx).
    Jaroslav Macenauer/Shutterstock

    Ancient DNA can be extracted from historical remains or subfossil (animals that are not ancient enough to be considered true fossils but are not considered modern either) samples. By studying these, scientists can gain valuable insights into the genetic past of species, offering a stark comparison with their present day counterparts.

    In 2015, our colleague Maria Lucena-Perez first visited the lab of another of our colleagues, Michael Hofreiter, in Germany to generate the very first whole genome data from ancient Iberian lynx bones. Extracting ancient DNA from bones is a highly specialised process that requires dedicated cleanroom facilities to prevent contamination from modern DNA.

    Working together, our team successfully extracted nuclear DNA from three ancient Iberian lynx specimens. Two of these were approximately 2,500 years old. The third dated back more than 4,000 years. This marked the first time nuclear DNA had ever been retrieved from ancient Iberian lynx. Maria’s achievement has significantly advanced our understanding of how the genetic makeup of the Iberian lynx has evolved over thousands of years.

    Our team analysed and compared the DNA with that of modern Iberian lynx. To our surprise, the ancient lynx showed even lower genetic diversity than their modern descendants. Given the sharp decline in their populations over the past few centuries, this finding was both unexpected and puzzling.

    Species interbreeding

    The missing piece of the puzzle came with the discovery that modern Iberian lynx populations share more genetic variants with the closely related Eurasian lynx than their ancient counterparts did. This suggests that the two species successfully interbred within the past 2,500 years, boosting the genetic diversity of today’s Iberian lynx.

    These findings align with extensive genomic evidence of ancient gene flow from Eurasian lynx into the Iberian lynx genome. While the two species don’t share the same habitats today, they once coexisted in the Iberian Peninsula, and possibly in southern France and northern Italy. This situation would have provided plenty of opportunities for interbreeding.

    The potential for these two species to naturally meet and breed is growing once more as their ranges continue to expand. This could open up new possibilities for genetic diversity in the future.

    The advent of whole nuclear genome analysis over the past 30 years has revealed numerous cases of cross-species interbreeding, such as between polar bears and brown bears. This suggests that the case of the lynx is not so unusual. But the Iberian lynx stands out as the first documented example where interspecies breeding significantly increased species-wide genetic diversity.

    We still don’t fully understand the exact effect of this genetic boost, particularly whether it improved the population’s fitness and survival. One intriguing possibility is that the Iberian lynx has managed to persist despite its extremely low genetic diversity, thanks to recurrent genetic rescues by the Eurasian lynx.

    While there’s more to learn, our research offers an unexpected but important case study for the broader discussion on genetic rescue. If we can better predict the chances of inbreeding and outbreeding depression when interbreeding happens, we could use genetic rescue more effectively as a conservation tool in the ongoing biodiversity crisis.

    Johanna L.A. Paijmans receives funding from Marie Skłodowska-Curie individual fellowship “RESOURCEFUL”.

    Axel Barlow receives funding from NERC, ERC.

    José A. Godoy receives funding from the Spanish Dirección General de
    Investigación Científica y Técnica through competitive research grants (projects CGL2013-47755-P, CGL2017-84641-P, PID2021-123358OB-I00) and from EU funded LIFE+ program (LIFE19 NAT/ES/001055 – LIFE LYNXCONNECT)

    – ref. Ancient DNA helped us uncover the Iberian lynx’s potential secret weapon against extinction – https://theconversation.com/ancient-dna-helped-us-uncover-the-iberian-lynxs-potential-secret-weapon-against-extinction-237076

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to archive your photos in the digital age

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Wasim Ahmad, Assistant Teaching Professor of Journalism, Quinnipiac University

    What’s the right choice for storing your photos? Wasim Ahmad, CC BY

    Taking photographs used to be a careful, conscious act. Photos were selective, frozen moments in time carefully archived in albums and frames. Now, taking a photograph is almost as effortless and common as breathing – it’s something that people do all the time in the age of smartphone cameras with seemingly endless digital film.

    But the downside to capturing every moment is that it creates a mountain of those moments to save for the future. Those photos can be easily lost if they’re not archived properly. All it can take is one accidental dip in the toilet for your phone, and all that data is lost forever.

    So what’s a practical backup strategy for the average person? Here are a few ways to make sure memories are never lost:

    Cloud storage

    The simplest way to archive your photos is cloud storage. For Apple users, there’s iCloud, which starts at US$0.99 per month for 50 gigabytes all the way to $59.99 per month for 12 terabytes with various tiers in between. With an average iPhone photo clocking in at 3 megabytes, that’s a little over 16,000 photos for the cheap plan and 4 million or so for the largest plan. Google’s Google One cloud storage is most cost effective for yearly plans, with 2TB going for $99.99 per year and 5TB going for $249.99 per year.

    The actual amount you can store in that space does vary greatly with how a file is shot. Video has larger file sizes than photos. HEIF files, a newer format on Apple phones, compresses files into smaller packages, but long-term compatibility is unknown since the format hasn’t been in use for as long as the standard JPG file, which has been around since 1992.

    Storing your photos in a cloud service like iCloud is probably the easiest method.
    Chris Messina/Flickr, CC BY-NC

    While cloud services from big providers generally provide the easiest way for most average folks to back up their photos, and operate with little to no intervention via apps that are already on the phone constantly uploading every photo taken, there are risks involved.

    Big companies often change their policies about how photos are saved. For instance, depending on what phone and when it was bought, Google’s cloud storage may have saved photos in a “storage saver” format that lowers the quality of images by sizing them down or compressing them differently. This affects your ability to make high-quality prints or view the photos on high-resolution screens down the road. Unless someone is astute enough to notice small text here and there that mentions it, most users won’t even realize it’s happening.

    And what happens to cloud services when things go badly wrong? Users of photo backup service Digital Railroad found out the hard way. In 2008, the company abruptly shut down and gave its users 24 hours to download everything before the servers were shut down. Photographers rushed for the exits, trying to grab their photos on the way out, only to strain the servers to the point where few were able to recover anything at all. If this was the only way photos were backed up, it’s a lost cause.

    So while the cloud is easy, costs can add up and terms of service can change at a moment’s notice. What are some ways for photographers to control their own fate?

    Hard drives and network-attached storage

    Manually taking photos off a phone may take some extra time, but the approach offers peace of mind that cloud services can’t necessarily match.

    Almost all phones can plug into a computer’s USB port and use the built-in photos app on both Windows or MacOS to download photos to a computer. Apple users can use a method called AirDrop to send photos wirelessly to other Apple devices as well, including laptop and desktop computers.

    Now loading photos onto a local hard drive built into the machine can fill it up quickly, but there is a cost-effective way to get around that – namely, external hard drives. Theses are storage devices that you can plug into your computer as needed. They can be of the older and less expensive type with spinning platters or more modern solid-state drives that can survive a drop and greater temperature changes than the older drives can.

    These are different than flash drives, more commonly known as thumb drives because of their small size, that are designed as temporary storage to shuffle photos from one place to another.

    It’s easy to buy more than one hard drive to have duplicate backups in case of failure or catastrophe, but the downside is that there’s no easy access from the internet to your photos, and backup is generally a process that users must remember to do.

    Network-attached storage is one way to solve the cloud storage problem while retaining the ability to access photos from the internet. These are essentially hard drives – sometimes multiple hard drives linked together for even greater or faster storage – that are connected to a router that allows for access to the internet through specialized software.

    While not as easy as most third-party cloud storage services, once it’s set up, a network-attached storage unit is a flexible way to store your photos safely and accessibly. There are even companies that specialize in fireproof and waterproof units for extra insurance in case of disaster.

    Printing photos

    If cloud storage and hard drives seem too complicated, there’s always the old-fashioned approach of printing. There’s still something magical about seeing a photo on a wall or in an album, and thankfully there are ways to print professional-quality archival prints without having to go to a drugstore.

    Desktop photo printers are a way to bring those digital photos into the physical world, ready for organizing in photo albums.
    Leksey/Wikimedia

    The easiest and most cost-efficient types of printers are dedicated 4×6 printers using a technology similar to professional labs called dye-sublimation. These yield high-quality, waterproof prints that cost about the same as what one would pay for drugstore developing. HP makes its popular Sprocket line of printers, though those require a phone and an app to print from, which makes plugging in a memory card from a professional camera out of the question. However, Canon’s Selphy lineup includes many models with screens and a card slot to make that possible.

    The rabbit hole goes very deep, and there are many professional printers that can print even larger sizes. Canon and Epson dominate this space, marketing a range of pigment- and dye-based printers that can emphasize archival needs or color saturation, respectively.

    Another option is ordering a photo book, which, as the name suggests, is a physical bound book of your photos. However, photo books are probably more appropriate for memorializing an event – trip, wedding, project – than general archiving, given the typical costs and number of photos involved.

    There’s little reason to not make some sort of backups of photos in 2024, whether that’s on printed media, hard drives or in the cloud. The important thing is not which method to use, but to do it at all.

    Wasim Ahmad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to archive your photos in the digital age – https://theconversation.com/how-to-archive-your-photos-in-the-digital-age-239175

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Parents with disabilities have faced discrimination for years in the US, but new rules will help ensure that child welfare systems treat them more fairly

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Elizabeth Lightfoot, Distinguished Professor of Social Policy, School of Social Work, Arizona State University

    Parents with disabilities have new legal protections. Westend61/Getty Images

    Parents with any kind of disability are much more likely to have some type of interaction with the child welfare system than other parents. This means they are more likely than other parents to be reported for child abuse and neglect and more likely to have abuse or neglect substantiated by child welfare workers. They are also more likely to have their children placed in foster care and more likely to permanently lose their parental rights.

    More than one-third of mothers with intellectual and developmental disabilities have an interaction with the child welfare system within four years of their child’s birth, and about one-fifth of all children in foster care have a parent with some type of disability.

    However, there is little evidence that parents with disabilities abuse or neglect their children at higher rates than anyone else. Instead, there’s evidence that many young adults raised by a parent with a disability have very positive childhood experiences.

    New rules that went into effect in July 2024 provide the first federal protections specifically for parents with disabilities. These new rules ban discrimination against parents and caregivers with disabilities throughout the child welfare system.

    Government is changing these rules

    I’m a social work policy researcher who has studied policies affecting parents with disabilities since 2007.

    In 2010, I found that three-quarters of states had laws which said that a parent’s disability could be used as the grounds for terminating their parental rights. Most of these state laws focused on parents with intellectual and developmental disabilities or mental health disabilities, though some listed physical disabilities and other types as well.

    Many of these laws were vague and used outdated language such as “mental deficiency.”

    Parental disability is the only grounds for termination of parental rights that focuses on a condition of the parent. The rest focus on behaviors. For example, parental poverty is not listed as grounds for termination of parental rights in any state, but neglect – a behavior – is.

    State laws were only one of the issues parents with disabilities encountered related to child protection. For years, there had been confusion as to how the Americans with Disabilities Act, the federal law banning disability discrimination, applied to parents in the child welfare system. Until 2015, most state courts denied ADA claims by parents with disabilities who believed they were discriminated against.

    In addition, most child welfare workers do not receive formal training on working with parents with disabilities. They are not trained in how to assess parenting skills or how to make accommodations to services that they typically provide, such as providing in-home parent training or conveying information in plain language. They might not know about the overwhelming evidence that parents with intellectual disabilities can learn parenting skills.

    This has historically led many child welfare workers to make decisions based on stereotypes or speculation.

    One of the main biases that parents with disabilities face is the “presumption of unfitness bias.” This is a widespread bias that parents are unable to parent solely because of their disability.

    This bias can lead child welfare workers to not consider that parents with disabilities can rely on “parental supports” to assist them in parenting, ranging from adaptive cribs and baby monitors to in-home helpers. It also can result in parents with disabilities being held to a higher standard than others.

    State laws specifically naming parental disability as a for termination of parental rights, the lack of federal protection, and widespread biases left parents with disabilities vulnerable in encounters with the child welfare system.

    Gaining national attention

    Two federal actions in the early 2010s brought national attention to parents with disabilities.

    First, the National Council on Disability, the independent federal agency that advises the federal government on disability issues, released a report in 2012 called Rocking the Cradle. That report focused on the widespread discrimination faced by parents with disabilities; highlighted and called for changing the state child protection laws; and called for the application of ADA protections in child welfare cases involving parents with disabilities.

    This report received a lot of media attention and led to more awareness of the plight of these parents.

    Then, in 2015, Justice Department and the Department of Health and Human Services released guidance directing child welfare agencies to protect parents with disabilities from discrimination. This was the first federal action indicating that the ADA and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act applied to child protection services.

    This guidance followed the departments’ investigation of the Massachusetts Department of Children and Families’ removal of a newborn baby from Sara Gordon, a new mother with a developmental disability, in 2012. The Department of Justice and the Department of Health and Human Services found that the state agency had made assumptions that Gordon was unable to take care of her child and unable to learn parenting skills. The state agency had also failed to take into account that Gordon had support systems in place. She lived with her parents, and her mother had quit her job to assist with parenting.

    Making progress for parents with disabilities

    The momentum for protecting parental rights has led to some positive changes.

    A few states changed their own child protection laws to address some of these problems before the federal government took action by providing new protections for parents with disabilities. In addition, the Department of Justice and Department of Health and Human Services have reached agreements with state agencies in Oregon, Georgia and Massachusetts related to discrimination against parents with disabilities.

    Despite this progress, parents with disabilities are still discriminated against by the child welfare system in many parts of the country.

    At the same time, I have no doubt that the federal government’s revision of the rules of Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act is a major step forward for parents with disabilities.

    In particular, it is promising that Section  84.60 of the rule clarifies that disability discrimination is not allowed in any part of the child welfare process. Child welfare agencies throughout the United States now must ensure that they are not making decisions based on speculation, stereotypes or generalizations.

    Thanks to changes in the federal rule, when a child welfare agency evaluates how a child is being parented, the tools it uses must be backed by research. The evaluations must be conducted by a qualified professional and tailored to the needs of the individual parent. Agencies must ensure that parents with disabilities can participate in any services they provide. These services include parent-child visitation, parenting skills programs, family reunification services and child placements in foster care settings or in the care of another relative.

    Disability advocacy groups applauded this new rule when it went into effect in the summer of 2024.

    I believe these new rules will protect parents with disabilities when interacting with child protection authorities. They will also make it easier for child welfare agencies and state courts to recognize disability discrimination when it appears in their caseloads or on their dockets.

    Elizabeth Lightfoot receives funding from the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living, and Rehabilitation Research and the Arizona Developmental Disabilities Planning Council.

    – ref. Parents with disabilities have faced discrimination for years in the US, but new rules will help ensure that child welfare systems treat them more fairly – https://theconversation.com/parents-with-disabilities-have-faced-discrimination-for-years-in-the-us-but-new-rules-will-help-ensure-that-child-welfare-systems-treat-them-more-fairly-238185

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Egypt’s fears about Ethiopia’s mega-dam haven’t come to pass: moving on from historical concerns would benefit the whole region

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mike Muller, Visiting Adjunct Professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand

    A new round of angry exchanges has broken out between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

    On September 1, Cairo wrote to the UN security council to protest against Ethiopia’s continued filling of Africa’s second largest reservoir and bringing two more power generating turbines into operation. Egypt sees any new infrastructure development on the Nile as a potential threat, since the river is the source of over 98% of the country’s water.

    Egypt calls this a violation of international law and Ethiopia’s obligations to “prevent significant harm”. Ethiopia’s policies, it says,

    could result in an existential threat to Egypt … and would consequently jeopardise regional and international peace and security.

    Ethiopia has told Egypt to “abandon its aggressive approach” towards the dam. Ethiopia says that it must allow the Blue Nile’s water to flow through the dam’s turbines and on to Egypt to generate the hydropower for which it has been built, thus guaranteeing the overall flow to Egypt.

    I have tracked the Nile disputes since the 1970s, first as a development journalist, then as a civil engineer and senior public servant. More recently, my research on water and regional integration for regional development agencies has provided further insights. My 2021 study considered the lessons to be learnt for today’s water challenges from centuries of the use and management of Nile waters.



    Read more:
    Innovations on the Nile over millennia offer lessons in engineering sustainable futures

    Ongoing tension between Egypt and Ethiopia over control of the Nile River has a long history. Therefore, in one sense, the row between Egypt and Ethiopia is nothing new.

    The countries went to war as far back as 1874, even as they both were also battling European colonialism. Ethiopia won the war of 1874 and, 20 years later, beat back Italy’s attempt to colonise it, at the battle of Adwa.

    However, Egypt gained long term advantage from treaties negotiated by the British, which gave Cairo almost total control over the Nile. Egypt is still asserting the rights and privileges conferred by those colonial era treaties even though they are being challenged by other Nile countries. In my view, this is because Egyptians are still trapped by their past fears. As Norwegian professor Torje Tvedt has explained, these fears were deliberately entrenched by past colonial authorities.

    With these perspectives, my view is that the current controversy over the Ethiopian dam still reflects historical conflicts rather than a careful analysis of present challenges.

    Now 90% complete, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has begun to generate electricity. A series of good rainy seasons have allowed the reservoir to start filling rapidly without affecting Egypt’s water availability.

    The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam offers not just cheap green electricity for Ethiopia and the sub-region as well as reliable irrigation supplies and flood control for Sudan. Once filled, its storage could offer supply security and increase the amount of water available for Egypt as well.

    The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

    What, then, are the issues that have prompted Egypt’s recent protests and what are the possible solutions to the problems raised?

    The immediate technical challenge is to continue filling the dam without disrupting flows to Sudan and Egypt. The filling process might have to be interrupted if there is a regional drought. So recent developments, notably the greater focus on the rate at which the dam will be filled rather than the legality of its construction, suggest that there is a shift in positions which neither side is yet willing to acknowledge publicly.

    This shift will be supported when other future-focused issues are raised. For instance, there must be negotiations about the supply of electricity to support Sudan’s irrigation expansion, although this is on hold due to the war in Sudan. In the longer term, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia could cooperate to use the GERD’s storage to help Egypt to manage its Aswan High Dam more efficiently. Aswan currently suffers very high evaporation losses, which could be reduced if its reservoir levels were better controlled. The GERD could help to do this.

    Unfortunately, the history of colonial Britain repeatedly threatening to cut Egypt’s Nile water supplies has been deeply imprinted in Egyptian public consciousness. It is understandable that Egyptians still fear a similar threat from Ethiopia. The responsibility now falls on Ethiopia to show good faith in its operation of the dam and to work with Egypt to change the combative discourse.

    Potential for cooperation

    Egypt’s repeated complaints have alerted Ethiopia and international organisations of the need to act carefully. If there is another regional drought, Ethiopia will need to slow the rate at which it completes filling its dam. Informal liaison structures are monitoring the situation and such a response would help to build a more constructive engagement with Egypt.

    Water is a patient teacher. Every season provides an opportunity for those who live with its natural cycles to understand it better. The hope is that, if the three countries experience the benefits of some seasons of the dam’s operation, the natural cycle will reveal the potential for cooperation and mitigate the conflict.



    Read more:
    Sudan’s catastrophe: farmers could offer quick post-war recovery, if peace is found

    When peace returns to Sudan, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will enable a vast expansion of irrigation to develop its role as a regional breadbasket. The dam will also help to manage Nile floods which regularly cause death and destruction, even to Sudan’s capital, Khartoum.

    Efforts to promote cooperation between the East African countries that share the White Nile have been relatively successful. However, such cooperation on the Blue Nile will need much greater trust between the parties. To achieve this trust, the countries and their people will have to overcome centuries of cultural and political preconceptions. This will require much patient work and interaction, which is not easy in the current climate.

    Mike Muller has received funding from the African Development Bank and South Africa’s Water Research Comission for work on regional cooperation in water resource management. He has been a member of the Global Water Partnership’s Technical Committee, chaired the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Water and been funded by the World Bank’s Cooperation in International Waters (CIWA) programme for contributions to the Nile Basin Initiative. He was also funded by UNESCO to attend a conference in Khartoum, organised with Sudan’s Ministry of Water Resources Irrigation and Electricity, on integrated and sustainable water management.

    – ref. Egypt’s fears about Ethiopia’s mega-dam haven’t come to pass: moving on from historical concerns would benefit the whole region – https://theconversation.com/egypts-fears-about-ethiopias-mega-dam-havent-come-to-pass-moving-on-from-historical-concerns-would-benefit-the-whole-region-239418

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Did Romans really fight rhinos? Sports historian explains the truth behind the battle scenes in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Wray Vamplew, Emeritus Professor of Sport, University of Stirling

    In the trailer for Ridley Scott’s hotly anticipated sequel to Gladiator (2000), a new gladiator (played by Paul Mescal) goes to battle in “the greatest temple Rome ever built – the Colosseum”.

    He comes up against naval warfare, a cutthroat promoter (Denzel Washington) and a stampeding rhino. But how much of this really took place in Roman times? As always with films based in the past, pedantic historians will jump in to assess the degree of cinematic licence and historical misinterpretation. So it is with the forthcoming Gladiator II.

    The trailer for Gladiator II.

    Did gladiators fight rhinos?

    One thing that certainly did not happen was a warrior mounted on a rhinoceros (even a non-computer-generated one) charging at a group of gladiators. However, there is a record of a rhino at the inauguration of the Colosseum in 80BC. It didn’t fight men, but a bull, bear, buffalo, bison, lion and two steers. The other rare mentions of rhinos in Rome are of those in menageries, to be admired as exotic creatures.

    This Roman interest in foreign, wild animals was the basis of the initial beast spectacles which began in 275BC with an exhibition of captured war elephants. Such non-violent displays of animals continued into the imperial era, but in 186BC the first staged animal hunt (venatio), featuring both lions and leopards, took place and by 169BC beast hunts had become an official part of republican state festivals.

    Later, under the emperors, collecting and transporting beasts, especially unusual and foreign ones, to be displayed – but more often killed – demonstrated imperial power, territorial control and the vastness of the empire. Thousands of animals were brought from Africa and elsewhere to Roman arenas to be slaughtered for entertainment and the meat from the dead animals was given away to the spectators (it was easier than trying to dispose of the many carcasses).

    A 5th-century mosaic showing two gladiators fighting a tiger.
    Great Palace of Constantinople, CC BY

    Those who fought the beasts were not gladiators but specially trained hunters (venatores) armed with spears. The venatio could also feature fights between animals, as with the Colosseum rhinoceros, but most often the contest consisted of bulls against an elephant or bear. Animal hunts outlasted gladiatorial combats as a source of spectator entertainment, but as both the size of the empire and imperial funds diminished, greater reliance was placed on domestically reared “wild” animals.

    Were there sea battles in the Colosseum?

    More credence in historical terms can be given to the film’s staged sea battle (naumachia) in the flooded Colosseum. Such spectacles were expensive to stage and were reserved for special occasions.

    The first one recorded was for Emperor Augustus in 2BC. Held on an artificial lake, it featured 30 large ships carrying some 3,000 marines plus an unspecified number of rowers. Participants in a naumachia, typically either convicted criminals or prisoners of war, were expected to kill each other or drown, though, the demonstration of fighting ability and courage could gain them a pardon.

    The Naumachia by Ulpiano Checa (1894) imagines naval warfare in the Coliseum.
    Museo Ulpiano Checa

    The grandest sea battle was provided by Emperor Claudius on Lake Fucinus, a spectacle involving 100 ships and some 19,000 marines and oarsmen. It was at this event that the fighting men reportedly said “hail, emperor, we who are about to die salute you”, mistakenly assigned to gladiators in so many films, including the first Gladiator.

    Literary sources (not always to be trusted in antiquity as they were often written well after alleged events) claim that the Colosseum was flooded for a sea battle at its inauguration. After some debate, historians now accept that the engineering mechanisms were in place so that, at least in its early days, the Colosseum could have accommodated a naumachia.

    Did a thumbs down really mean death for a gladiator?

    Gladiator II also showcases the misconstrued sporting legacy of the thumbs up signal to spare a defeated gladiator who requested mercy or the converse of a thumbs down from those who wished him to die.

    The arena was a large, noisy place and hand signals were often used as a means of communication. Indeed, rather than verbally requesting mercy, the defeated warrior himself would raise the index finger of his right hand, or even the hand itself, both of which were recognised pleas for clemency.

    Pollice Verso (Thumbs Down) by Jean-Léon Gérôme, (1872).
    Phoenix Art Museum, CC BY

    When the crowd opted for the death of a fighter they indicated this by means of pollice verso, literally a turned thumb, with no direction specified. When the hand was waved the sign indicated that the gladiator’s throat should be cut by his conqueror. Those who wished to save the vanquished, but courageous, fighter gave the sign pollice compresso, a compressed thumb but one often hidden from sight so as not to cause visual confusion.

    Gladiators were valuable assets. Promoters, who had paid a hiring fee (typically 10-20% of their value) for them to fight, were reluctant to incur the full asset value demanded as compensation should they die. Especially when, at the crowd’s insistence, they could have a choice in the matter.

    In many instances the event had been promoted to curry favour with the spectators so to go against their wishes would be counterproductive. However, whether the ultimate decision-maker gave a thumbs up or thumbs down is debatable. The idea that this occurred seems to have developed around 1872 with the popularity of a painting by French artist, Jean-Léon Gérôme. In it he depicts vestal virgins giving the dreaded sign. Although titled Pollice Verso, it became conventionally referred to as “the thumbs down painting”.


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    Wray Vamplew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Did Romans really fight rhinos? Sports historian explains the truth behind the battle scenes in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II – https://theconversation.com/did-romans-really-fight-rhinos-sports-historian-explains-the-truth-behind-the-battle-scenes-in-ridley-scotts-gladiator-ii-235255

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A brief history of former presidents running for reelection: 3 losses, 1 win and 1 still TBD

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Graeme Mack, Visiting Assistant Professor of History, University of Richmond

    Theodore Roosevelt speaks during the Progressive campaign of 1912. AP Photo

    This year’s presidential election has a former president, Donald Trump, running for a nonconsecutive term. It’s the fifth time in U.S. history that’s happened.

    Historically, a former president running for a nonconsecutive term has prompted voters to change their party allegiances.

    In 1848, Martin Van Buren, a former Democratic president, ran as a candidate for the newly formed Free Soil Party and attracted many Northern Democrats who had grown disillusioned with their party’s pro-slavery stance. The Free Soil Party outperformed Democrats in three Northern states and enabled the other major party, the Whigs, to win the presidency.

    And in 1856, former Whig President Millard Fillmore headed the newly formed American Party, otherwise known as the Know-Nothing party. When faced with a choice between two candidates, Fillmore and Democrat James Buchanan, who both seemed deeply complicit with slavery’s expansion, many Northerners voted for the new antislavery Republican Party.

    Fillmore’s candidacy in 1856 made a Republican sweep of the North virtually impossible, ensuring victory for Buchanan, who only won 45% of the popular vote.

    Theodore Roosevelt’s run in 1912 also saw dramatic changes in voter behavior. With the former president on the ballot, millions of voters cast ballots for the other major party or a brand new party.

    By this time, Roosevelt had become one of the most famous men in the world. Reformers praised his ability to attract attention and build support for progressive causes.

    These characteristics repulsed conservative Republicans and traditional Democrats who feared Roosevelt’s return to power.

    After failing to secure the Republican nomination, Roosevelt headed the newly formed Progressive Party, winning six states and 88 electoral votes, the strongest showing for a third party candidate ever.

    However, the split in the Republican ranks enabled Democrats to win by an electoral landslide.

    One former president ran for a nonconsecutive second term and won: Grover Cleveland, whose two terms ran from 1885-1889 and 1893-1897.

    The rise of progressivism

    When Roosevelt ran in 1912, he saw a society convulsed by rapid change.

    Between 1870 and 1900, the population of the United States rose from roughly 38 million to more than 76 million.

    During this time, business transformed from small-scale manufacturing and local trade to huge corporations and factory-based manufacturing.

    From 1900 to 1915, another 15 million immigrants settled in American cities.

    A political reform movement known as progressivism emerged across political parties. It sought to address problems with immigration, urbanization, political corruption, industrialization and the concentration of corporate power.

    Roosevelt’s political career tapped into progressivism’s growing momentum. First elected vice president as a Republican in 1900, he assumed the presidency in September 1901 after the assassination of President William McKinley.

    Campaigning on his progressive “Square Deal” — focused on consumer protections, control of large corporations and conservation of natural resources — in 1904, the popular incumbent won reelection in the largest electoral landslide the country had seen.

    But in 1908, Roosevelt declined to run for a third term. Instead, he advocated successfully for William Howard Taft, his secretary of war.

    However, as Taft’s presidency took shape, Roosevelt grew dissatisfied with him. What most frustrated Roosevelt was Taft’s refusal to use executive power to advance progressive goals.

    Seeing an urgent need for forceful presidential leadership, Roosevelt challenged Taft for the Republican nomination in 1912.

    A political cartoon from 1912 illustrating Theodore Roosevelt’s dissatisfaction with how President William Howard Taft carried out his policies.
    Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division

    At the Republican National Convention, however, party leaders rejected Roosevelt and confirmed Taft’s nomination. Roosevelt’s supporters stormed out, complaining that leaders had manipulated rules and procedures to block the former president.

    Despite his loss of the nomination, Roosevelt assured his supporters that he felt as “strong as a Bull Moose” and expressed interest in “bolting” from the Republican Party.

    Roosevelt’s threat to leave his party was echoed more than 100 years later by another former president running for a nonconsecutive term. In late 2023, Trump refused to participate in the Republican presidential primary debates and refused to rule out the possibility of running as an independent.

    In doing so, Trump’s candidacy hampered efforts to seek an alternative candidate. It also disregarded opportunities to win over skeptical Republicans.

    The rise of the Bull Moose Party

    In a matter of weeks after Roosevelt failed to get the Republican nomination, the Progressive Party, popularly known as the Bull Moose Party, held its national convention and nominated Roosevelt as its first presidential candidate.

    His presidential campaign did not lack for energy or spectacle. In October 1912, the former president delivered a one-hour speech immediately after being shot in an assassination attempt.

    He told his supporters, “It takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose.”

    Theodore Roosevelt arrives at a hospital after New York saloon keeper John F. Schrank attempted to assassinate him in Milwaukee in 1912.
    Harlingue/Roger Viollet via Getty Images

    Like the recent assassination attempts on Trump, this attack drew condemnation and galvanized the former president’s core supporters.

    Roosevelt faced off on Election Day against the Republican incumbent, William Howard Taft; Eugene V. Debs, the Socialist Party candidate; and the Democratic candidate, Woodrow Wilson.

    Many Republicans cast their ballots for Wilson, seeing his candidacy as more viable than Roosevelt’s. Some did so out of disgust for what they saw as Roosevelt’s egotistical and radical campaign.

    The split in the Republican Party created an opportunity for Democrats, who had been shut out of the presidency for decades.

    The legacy of 1912

    On election day, Democrat Wilson won 40 states and earned 435 electoral votes. Democrats also won the House and Senate for the first time since 1892.

    However, Wilson prevailed with less than 42% of the national vote, the smallest share won by a president since Abraham Lincoln’s 1860 election.

    A unified Republican ticket would very likely have prevailed in 1912.

    Taft blamed Roosevelt for 1 million Republicans voting for the Democratic ticket to stave off a Progressive win.

    Historical parallels are never perfect. However, the 1912 election invites some comparison, as one of the world’s most famous men runs for the third time for the presidency.

    The 2024 election will be close. Wary of Trump’s return to power, will disillusioned Republicans vote for Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, choose a third-party candidate, or sit out the election?

    Graeme Mack does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A brief history of former presidents running for reelection: 3 losses, 1 win and 1 still TBD – https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-former-presidents-running-for-reelection-3-losses-1-win-and-1-still-tbd-234959

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: No, immigrants aren’t eating dogs and cats – but Trump’s claim is part of an ugly history of myths about immigrant foodways

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Adrienne Bitar, Lecturer, Cornell University

    Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump debates Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on Sept. 10, 2024. Win McNamee/Getty Images

    When Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said during the presidential debate on Sept. 10, 2024, that Haitian immigrants are eating pets, food historians like me were not surprised at the slur. Trump’s lie followed a long American history of peddling ugly rumors about immigrants stealing and eating pets.

    Dietary rules that unite and define American cuisine can so easily be perverted to use disgust to divide Americans. In the U.S., cow is food and dog is friend. Chicken is food. Cat is companion. The sharp lines between the animals Americans eat, love, protect and exterminate help write the dietary rules that define American norms.

    What we eat, what we don’t and with whom we break bread are just some of the food rules that unite and define Americans. Think of how turkey – or tofurkey – unites Americans behind the Thanksgiving ritual. Bottled water. Ice. Ballpark hot dogs. Airplane pretzels. Movie theater popcorn.

    Food can also establish group identity apart from the mainstream. Think of the many factions of vegan, vegetarian, paleo, grain-free and carnivore dieters who use food to express a political position. Also, of course, religious dietary proscriptions have worried scholars for centuries so that Jews, Muslims and Christians may never share a meal.

    There is no evidence that Haitians are stealing and eating pet cats and dogs. There is evidence, however, that racists have long twisted dietary rules to divide people and dehumanize immigrants. Trump told a lie to draw a line between Americans and others who allegedly eat the animals Americans love.

    A sign at a popular hot dog restaurant in Chicago reads ‘Immigrants eat our dogs,’ on Sept. 12, 2024, two days after the presidential debate.
    Scott Olson/Getty Images

    The legend of delicious pets

    The myth of eating pets traces back to old legends in Europe, Australia and the United States that “immigrants are stealing our cats and dogs for their dinner tables or to serve in ethnic restaurants,” writes the folklorist Jan Harold Brunvand.

    Two of the most common food-based legends center on “Oriental restaurants serving dog (or cat) meat, and legends about Asian immigrants in the United States capturing and cooking people’s pets,” Brunvard writes.

    By 1883, the legend was so well-established that the Chinese-American journalist Wong Chin Foo offered US$500 to anybody in New York for proof that Chinese people were eating cats or rats. No proof was found, but that didn’t stop the racist jokes or urban legends.

    None of the many examples deserve retelling. But scholars, for example, have cited “sick jokes” such as a “new Vietnamese cookbook is titled 100 Ways to Wok Your Dog.”

    Or as comedian Tessie Chua joked about her multiracial Chinese, Filipino and Irish identity in 1993 when she said, “That means I eat dog, but only if I can wash it down with Guinness Stout!”

    In 1971, mainstream news outlets, including Reuters, reported an “outrageously silly urban legend” of a pet poodle named Rosa served at a Hong Kong restaurant, complete with chili sauce and bamboo shoots.

    In 1980, Stockton, California, was seized by racist rumors of Vietnamese families stealing expensive purebred dogs for dinner.

    As recently as 2005, the TV show “Curb Your Enthusiasm” showed wedding
    guests vomiting     after being misinformed that they had eaten a German shepherd named Oscar, prepared by a Korean-American florist. “Oscar is bulgogi!,” Larry David cries.

    Scholars calls these tropes a “nativist backlash” and “vehicle for anti-immigrant and especially anti-Asian sentiments in the U.S.”

    A long history of food-based slurs

    More precise, maybe, than the adage that “we are what we eat” is that we are what we won’t eat. Shunning our neighbor for their vile food – stinky, strange, unpalatable – is also decidedly an American tradition.

    “Garlic eater” was at one time recognizable in the U.S. as an ethnic slur for Italian Americans in the early 20th century. The names “spaghetti bender” and “grape stomper” were also used, but “garlic eater” stuck because, as one scholar argued, “garlic served as an ‘olfactory signifier’” – a distinguishing odor – “for the alien who consumed it.”

    So when far-right radical Laura Loomer tweeted in September 2024 that the White House “will smell like curry” if Kamala Harris becomes president, she was also using food to stoke racist fears.

    Americans aren’t alone in doing this. Some Persians call Punjabis “dal khor,” meaning dal-eater, and some Romanians call Italians “macaronar,” meaning macaroni-eater. Both are slurs. Iranians have been known to call Arabs “malakh-khor,” or locust-eater, and Southern Italians sometimes call Northern Italians “polentoni,” or polenta-eater.

    To an outsider, being called a lentil- or polenta-eater seems more like praise for a healthy diet than a racial epithet, but such are the vagaries of racism: People hate who they hate and justify it however possible.

    Other examples of how food can distinguish communities abound. In the Amazon, the Parakanã people appreciate tapir meat but abhor monkey. The Arara people, their neighbors, feel the opposite. Both groups are disgusted by one another. Curry, garlic, tapir, polenta, lentils – it doesn’t matter what the nail is, but how the hammer hits.

    Philomene Philostin, a naturalized U.S. citizen of Haitian origin, works in her store in Springfield, Ohio, that caters mainly to Haitian residents.
    Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

    Rumors with real-life consequences

    Urban legends about food and racist rumors can have serious consequences. Earlier in 2024, a false rumor that a Laotian and Thai restaurant in Fresno, California, cooked pit bulls led to such vile harassment that the owner, David Rasavong, moved the restaurant to a new location.

    After Trump repeated the myth during the debate that immigrants eat pets, Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, quickly became the target of bomb threats, forcing city buildings and schools to close. Members of the Haitian community have said they fear for their safety.

    But there’s a more hopeful side to the issue of food being used as a way to divide or unite people, too. The Latin origins for the words company and companionship mean the people we share our bread with.

    Garlic is now as central to American cuisine as apple pie. Nowadays, Americans are so much the better for the sushi, garlic and curry – and the diversity behind the deliciousness – that flavor American cuisine.

    Adrienne Bitar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. No, immigrants aren’t eating dogs and cats – but Trump’s claim is part of an ugly history of myths about immigrant foodways – https://theconversation.com/no-immigrants-arent-eating-dogs-and-cats-but-trumps-claim-is-part-of-an-ugly-history-of-myths-about-immigrant-foodways-239343

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: On the US-Mexico border, the records of Trump and Harris reflect the national mood of less immigration, not more

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By William McCorkle, Assistant Professor of Education, College of Charleston

    Migrants at a shelter in Tijuana, Mexico, watch the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Sept. 10, 2024. Carlos Moreno/NurPhoto/Getty Image

    In late July 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris released a campaign ad about the U.S.-Mexico border that resembled something out of the Republican playbook.

    In the ad, Harris said as president she would increase Border Patrol agents, stop human traffickers and prosecute transnational gangs – some of the very things that Republican contender Donald Trump has also promised to do if elected.

    Considered by her campaign strategists to be a good political move, Harris’ shift to the right reflects the more anti-immigrant direction the U.S. population has taken over the past few years. According to a July 2024 Gallup Poll, 55% of Americans wanted increased limits on immigration, marking the first time in nearly two decades that a majority of Americans supported such curbs.

    These anti-immigrant attitudes are partially due to exaggerated claims from conservative politicians and right-wing pundits that management of the U.S.-Mexico border is a disaster and the government is endangering public safety by allowing violent criminals to cross into the U.S.

    Worse, during the presidential debate on Sept. 10, 2024, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump falsely accused Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, of eating dogs and cats.

    As someone who has worked extensively with asylum-seekers at the border since 2019, I see clear differences between Harris and Trump on the issue of immigration.

    While in office, Trump instituted restrictive immigration policies at the border, which all but halted asylum. He also was behind the controversial child separation policy in 2018 and sought to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, the Obama-era federal program that prevents hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants who came to the U.S. as children from being deported.

    Though Harris’ record on immigration is not as extensive as Trump’s, she has shown as U.S. senator and vice president a willingness to be more restrictive on the border while continuing to support a pathway to citizenship for “Dreamers” and undocumented migrants who are married to U.S. citizens.

    Trump’s extremist rhetoric and policies

    Given that border security has become his signature issue, Trump may take even more draconian measures than he did during his first term in office, including restricting the asylum system further and deporting as many as 20 million undocumented immigrants.

    Perhaps Trump’s most controversial action during his first term was his child separation policy in 2018, which led to over 5,000 children being taken from their parents after being apprehended at the border. This action led to nationwide protests and international condemnation. As of May 2024, about 1,400 children remained separated from their families.

    Undaunted, Trump pursued other restrictive policies.

    Trump signed an executive order in 2019 and launched the Migrant Protection Protocols, better known as the Remain in Mexico policy. This order required asylum-seekers arriving at the U.S. border to be returned to Mexico while their claims were being processed. This program stayed in effect until the end of Trump’s presidency in 2020 and led to 81,000 expulsions.

    Trump also used Title 42 restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic to quickly expel migrants without visas to contain the pandemic with no exceptions. In the first seven months, almost 200,000 migrants were expelled.

    Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in Arizona about immigration on Aug. 22, 2024.
    Olivier Touron/AFP/Getty Images

    Notably, the use of violent rhetoric against migrants increased dramatically during Trump’s emergence as the GOP leader. In his first term, Trump and his officials discussed shooting migrants crossing the border in the leg. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, one of his key allies, said the reason officials there do not shoot migrants is because they would be charged by the federal government.

    Trump has also promised he would be willing to use the U.S. military in Mexico to combat drug cartels.

    Harris’ balancing act

    As a U.S. senator in 2019, Harris voted against an anti-sanctuary city amendment that would have allowed local police to cooperate with federal immigration officials and potentially deport immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

    She was also the initial sponsor of legislation that would limit U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions against those caring for unaccompanied minors. But as attorney general of California, Harris did support turning over to immigration authorities minors living in the U.S. illegally who had committed crimes.

    As vice president, Harris has appeared to support a more restrictive approach similar to that of Biden‘s June 4, 2024, executive order that limited the number of asylum-seekers allowed to cross the border.

    She also supports the CBP One app system that was created by the Biden administration in early 2023.

    Under that process, individuals seeking asylum are given an opportunity to meet with an immigration official but often have to wait for months in dangerous conditions in Mexico.

    U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a virtual meeting with immigrant rights leaders on July 22, 2021.
    Win McNamee/Getty Images

    Harris has also consistently spoken out on the need to support DACA. The Biden administration expanded health care coverage in 2024 for DACA recipients, giving them access to insurance through the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare.

    If elected, Harris likely would extend another of Biden’s 2024 executive orders that created a legal pathway to citizenship for immigrants who don’t have legal authorization to be in the U.S. but are married to U.S. citizens.

    In stark contrast, Trump has already criticized the policy and said he would end it if elected.

    The Biden-Harris administration also had a nuanced record on the border and deportations. They have deported almost the same number of immigrants living in the U.S. without legal authorization as Trump did.

    The Texas National Guard conducts an operation to prevent migrants from building a camp along the U.S.-Mexico border in April 2024.
    David Peinado/Anadolu via Getty Images

    As of June 2024, the number of deportations since the start of the Biden administration in January 2021 was already at 4.4 million. At the same time, these higher numbers reflect the fact that more people are coming to the border due to increased chances of entering.

    During the first three years of Biden’s presidency, over 1 million migrants at the border were granted temporary humanitarian parole, which allows them to stay in the U.S. while waiting for their asylum hearing.

    The reality of immigration

    Immigration has been largely portrayed as either a clear and present threat by Republicans or as an act of compassion by Democrats.

    In the increasingly anti-immigrant environment, however, you’ll rarely hear that the increased immigration under the Biden-Harris administration has been a significant factor in U.S. economic growth.

    Indeed, many economists also have argued that working-class immigrants coming from across the border have helped reduce inflation. Its my belief that the U.S. is in need of more migrants, not fewer, and hard-line stances and policies damage our society and economy.

    While Trump’s hard-line stance against immigrants both at the border and within the country is well known, Harris’ record shows a more balanced approach that has offered support for at least some immigrants who are living in the U.S. illegally – and for those seeking asylum.

    William McCorkle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. On the US-Mexico border, the records of Trump and Harris reflect the national mood of less immigration, not more – https://theconversation.com/on-the-us-mexico-border-the-records-of-trump-and-harris-reflect-the-national-mood-of-less-immigration-not-more-237269

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why home insurance rates are rising so fast across the US – climate change plays a big role

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Andrew J. Hoffman, Professor of Management & Organizations, Environment & Sustainability, and Sustainable Enterprise, University of Michigan

    The U.S. has seen a large number of billion-dollar disasters in recent years. AP Photo/Mark Zaleski

    Millions of Americans have been watching with growing alarm as their homeowners insurance premiums rise and their coverage shrinks. Nationwide, premiums rose 34% between 2017 and 2023, and they continued to rise in 2024 across much of the country.

    To add insult to injury, those rates go even higher if you make a claim – as much as 25% if you claim a total loss of your home.

    Why is this happening?

    There are a few reasons, but a common thread: Climate change is fueling more severe weather, and insurers are responding to rising damage claims. The losses are exacerbated by more frequent extreme weather disasters striking densely populated areas, rising construction costs and homeowners experiencing damage that was once more rare.

    Hurricane Ian, supercharged by warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, hit Florida as a Category 4 hurricane in October 2022 and caused an estimated $112.9 billion in damage.
    Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images

    Parts of the U.S. have been seeing larger and more damaging hail, higher storm surges, massive and widespread wildfires, and heat waves that kink metal and buckle asphalt. In Houston, what used to be a 100-year disaster, such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017, is now a 1-in-23-years event, estimates by risk assessors at First Street Foundation suggest. In addition, more people are moving into coastal and wildland areas at risk from storms and wildfires.

    Just a decade ago, few insurance companies had a comprehensive strategy for addressing climate risk as a core business issue. Today, insurance companies have no choice but to factor climate change into their policy models.

    Rising damage costs, higher premiums

    There’s a saying that to get someone to pay attention to climate change, put a price on it. Rising insurance costs are doing just that.

    Increasing global temperatures lead to more extreme weather, and that means insurance companies have had to make higher payouts. In turn, they have been raising their prices and changing their coverage in order to remain solvent. That raises the costs for homeowners and for everyone else.

    The importance of insurance to the economy cannot be understated. You generally cannot get a mortgage or even drive a car, build an office building or enter into contracts without insurance to protect against the inherent risks. Because insurance is so tightly woven into economies, state agencies review insurance companies’ proposals to increase premiums or reduce coverage.

    The insurance companies are not making political statements with the increases. They are looking at the numbers, calculating risk and pricing it accordingly. And the numbers are concerning.

    The arithmetic of climate risk

    Insurance companies use data from past disasters and complex models to calculate expected future payouts. Then they price their policies to cover those expected costs. In doing so, they have to balance three concerns: keeping rates low enough to remain competitive, setting rates high enough to cover payouts and not running afoul of insurance regulators.

    But climate change is disrupting those risk models. As global temperatures rise, driven by greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use and other human activities, past is no longer prologue: What happened over the past 10 to 20 years is less predictive of what will happen in the next 10 to 20 years.

    The number of billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. each year offers a clear example. The average rose from 3.3 per year in the 1980s to 18.3 per year in the 10-year period ending in 2024, with all years adjusted for inflation.

    With that more than fivefold increase in billion-dollar disasters came rising insurance costs in the Southeast because of hurricanes and extreme rainfall, in the West because of wildfires, and in the Midwest because of wind, hail and flood damage.

    Hurricanes tend to be the most damaging single events. They caused more than US$692 billion in property damage in the U.S. between 2014 and 2023. But severe hail and windstorms, including tornadoes, are also costly; together, those on the billion-dollar disaster list did more than $246 billion in property damage over the same period.

    As insurance companies adjust to the uncertainty, they may run a loss in one segment, such as homeowners insurance, but recoup their losses in other segments, such as auto or commercial insurance. But that cannot be sustained over the long term, and companies can be caught by unexpected events. California’s unprecedented wildfires in 2017 and 2018 wiped out nearly 25 years’ worth of profits for insurance companies in that state.

    To balance their risk, insurance companies often turn to reinsurance companies; in effect, insurance companies that insure insurance companies. But reinsurers have also been raising their prices to cover their costs. Property reinsurance alone increased by 35% in 2023. Insurers are passing those costs to their policyholders.

    What this means for your homeowners policy

    Not only are homeowners insurance premiums going up, coverage is shrinking. In some cases, insurers are reducing or dropping coverage for items such as metal trim, doors and roof repair, increasing deductibles for risks such as hail and fire damage, or refusing to pay full replacement costs for things such as older roofs.

    Some insurances companies are simply withdrawing from markets altogether, canceling existing policies or refusing to write new ones when risks become too uncertain or regulators do not approve their rate increases to cover costs. In recent years, State Farm and Allstate pulled back from California’s homeowner market, and Farmers, Progressive and AAA pulled back from the Florida market, which is seeing some of the highest insurance rates in the country.

    In some cases, insurers are restricting coverage. Roof repairs, like these in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., after Hurricane Ian, can be expensive and widespread after windstorms.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    State-run “insurers of last resort,” which can provide coverage for people who can’t get coverage from private companies, are struggling too. Taxpayers in states such as California and Florida have been forced to bail out their state insurers. And the National Flood Insurance Program has raised its premiums, leading 10 states to sue to stop them.

    About 7.4% of U.S. homeowners have given up on insurance altogether, leaving an estimated $1.6 trillion in property value at risk, including in high-risk states such as Florida.

    No, insurance costs aren’t done rising

    According to NOAA data, 2023 was the hottest year on record “by far.” And 2024 could be even hotter. This general warming trend and the rise in extreme weather is expected to continue until greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are abated.

    In the face of such worrying analyses, U.S. homeowners insurance will continue to get more expensive and cover less. And yet, Jacques de Vaucleroy, chairman of the board of reinsurance giant Swiss Re, believes U.S. insurance is still priced too low to fully cover the risk from climate change.

    Andrew J. Hoffman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why home insurance rates are rising so fast across the US – climate change plays a big role – https://theconversation.com/why-home-insurance-rates-are-rising-so-fast-across-the-us-climate-change-plays-a-big-role-238939

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sri Lankans throw out old guard in election upset: What nation’s new Marxist-leaning leader means for economy, IMF loans

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Vidhura S. Tennekoon, Assistant Professor of Economics, Indiana University

    Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s celebrates his vote. Tharaka Basnayaka/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Sri Lankans voted for a new direction in leadership on Sept. 22, 2024, electing a leftist anti-poverty campaigner as president of the South Asian nation.

    The ascent of Anura Kumara Dissanayake marks a break with the past and from the establishment parties and politicians blamed for taking the country to the brink of economic collapse in 2022.

    Dissanayake characterized the victory as a “fresh start” for Sri Lanka – but he will nonetheless need to address the economic baggage left by his predecessors and the impact of an International Monetary Fund loan that came with painful austerity demands. The Conversation turned to Vidhura S. Tennekoon, an expert on Sri Lanka’s economy at Indiana University, to explain the task facing the new president – and how Dissanayake intends to tackle it.

    What do we know about Sri Lanka’s new president?

    Anura Kumara Dissanayake leads both the National People’s Power alliance, or NPP, and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, or JVP. Rooted in Marxist ideology, the JVP was founded in the 1960s with the aim of seizing power through a socialist revolution. But after two failed armed uprisings in 1971 and 1987-89 – which resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of lives – the party shifted toward democratic politics and has remained so for over three decades.

    Until this election, the JVP remained a minor third party in Sri Lanka’s political landscape, while power alternated between the alliances led by the two traditional political parties – the United National Party and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party – or their descendant parties.

    In 2019, under Dissanayake’s leadership, the NPP was formed as a socialist alliance with several other organizations. While the JVP continues to adhere to Marxist principles, the NPP adopted a center-left, social democratic platform – aiming to attract broader public support.

    Despite these efforts, Dissanayake garnered only 3% of the vote in the 2019 presidential election.

    But the political landscape shifted dramatically during the economic crisis of 2022. Many Sri Lankans, frustrated with the two traditional parties that had governed the country for over seven decades, turned to the NPP, seeing it as a credible alternative.

    The party’s anti-corruption stance, in particular, resonated strongly because many people blamed political corruption for the economic collapse.

    It helped deliver 42% of the vote to Dissanayake.

    While a significant achievement, it also marks a historic first for Sri Lanka — Dissanayake is the first president to be elected without majority support; the remaining 58% of votes were split between candidates from the two traditional parties.

    His immediate challenge will be to secure a parliamentary majority in the upcoming elections, a crucial step for his administration to govern effectively.

    What kind of economy is Dissanayake inheriting?

    Two and a half years ago, Sri Lanka experienced the worst economic crisis in its history. With foreign reserves nearly depleted, the country struggled to pay its bills, leading to severe shortages of essential goods. People waited in long lines for cooking gas and fuel, while regular blackouts became part of daily life. The Sri Lankan rupee plummeted to a record low, driving inflation to 70%. The economy was contracting, and the country defaulted on its international sovereign bonds for the first time.

    This sparked a massive protest movement that ultimately forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign. In July 2022, Parliament appointed Ranil Wickremesinghe to complete the remainder of Rajapaksa’s term.

    Sri Lankans protest near the official residence of then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on May 28, 2022.
    Tharaka Basnayaka/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    In the two years that followed, Sri Lanka’s economy made an unexpectedly rapid recovery under Wickremesinghe’s leadership. After securing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, the currency stabilized, the central bank rebuilt foreign reserves, and inflation fell to single digits. By the first half of 2024, the economy had grown by 5%.

    The government successfully restructured its domestic debt, followed by a restructuring of its bilateral debt – that is, government-to-government loans, mostly from China but also from India and Western counties, including the United States. Just days before the election, an agreement was reached with international bondholders to restructure the remaining sovereign debt.

    Despite these achievements, Wickremesinghe was overtaken in the presidential race by both Dissanayake and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. Wickremesinghe’s unpopularity stemmed largely from the harsh austerity measures implemented under the IMF-backed stabilization program.

    Dissanayake now inherits an economy that, while more stable, remains vulnerable. He will have limited room to maneuver away from the carefully planned economic path laid out by his predecessor, even as voters expect him to fulfill popular demands.

    How does Dissanayake plan to improve Sri Lanka’s economy?

    As a leader from a Marxist party, Dissanayake will likely pursue policies to reflect collective decisions made by the politburos and central committees of the NPP and JVP, rather than his individual views. He advocates for an economic system where activities are coordinated through a central government plan, emphasizing the importance of “economic democracy.”

    His party believes prosperity should be measured not just by economic growth but by the overall quality of life. They argue that people need more than just basic necessities — they require secure housing, food, health care, education, access to technology and leisure.

    Dissanayake’s long-term vision is to transform Sri Lanka into a production-based economy, focusing on sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and information technology rather than service industries. One of the key policies is to promote local production of all viable food products to reduce reliance on imports. To support these activities, the NPP plans to establish a development bank. Additionally, they NPP proposes increasing government spending on education and health care, in line with Sri Lanka’s tradition of providing free, universal access to both.

    Where does this leave the IMF loans?

    Historically, Dissanayake’s party has been critical of the IMF and its policy recommendations. Given the severity of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, Dissanayake has acknowledged the need to stay within the IMF program for now. But he has vowed to renegotiate with the IMF to make the program more “people-friendly.” Dissanayake’s proposals include raising the personal income tax exemption threshold to double its current level and removing taxes on essential goods. Dissanayake’s party also plans adding jobs to the public sector, despite the ongoing effort to reduce the government workforce to manage the deficit.

    Dissanayake’s populist policies, aimed at attracting mass support during the campaign, will inevitably strain government revenues while increasing expenses. However, the IMF program requires Sri Lanka to maintain a primary budget surplus of at least 2.3% of gross domestic product to ensure debt sustainability. Dissanayake has promised not to jeopardize the country’s economic stability by deviating from this target. His strategy is to improve the efficiency of tax collection, which he believes will generate enough revenue to fund his policies.

    Additionally, his party has criticized the deal struck by Wickremesinghe’s government with international lenders, calling it unfavorable to the country. Dissanayake has promised to seek better terms. However, since these agreements are already in place, it remains uncertain whether the new government will attempt to renegotiate them.

    Vidhura Tennekoon was a former employee of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

    – ref. Sri Lankans throw out old guard in election upset: What nation’s new Marxist-leaning leader means for economy, IMF loans – https://theconversation.com/sri-lankans-throw-out-old-guard-in-election-upset-what-nations-new-marxist-leaning-leader-means-for-economy-imf-loans-239649

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Powering Africa: new model compares options for off-grid solar in 43 countries

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Hamish Beath, Research Associate in Societal Transitions, Imperial College London

    Sub-Saharan Africa, home to 80% of the global population without electricity access, is unlikely to reach the United Nations’ goal of access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030.

    The region is significantly behind the rest of the world. Globally, access to electricity increased from 79% of the population in 2000 to 90% in 2019. In sub-Saharan Africa, access to electricity rose from 26% to 47%, and most who don’t have access live in rural areas, according to World Bank data.

    The World Bank predicts that, based on current electricity connection and population growth trends, sub-Saharan Africa will have more than 400 million people unconnected to electricity by 2030.

    A lack of access to reliable electricity has a significant negative impact on living standards. For example, it can limit the provision of quality public services such as healthcare, education and water. It also creates a barrier to access to digital services, holding back participation in an increasingly digital global economy.

    Lack of access is not the only challenge for sub-Saharan African countries. Existing connections are unreliable too. About 43% of Africans had access to electricity that worked “most” or “all” of the time in 2022. Reliability issues are typically more common in rural areas.

    Just two sub-Saharan African countries have electricity grids without significant outages: Angola and Botswana. Outages reduce the benefits electricity offers to households and businesses, and create demand for expensive and typically polluting fuel-run generators.

    Studies have proposed off-grid solar generated electricity as one possible solution for economies with poor electricity access. In some locations, they are the lowest-cost option, and can enable electricity access without building electricity grid infrastructure – transmission and distribution networks.

    Some of these studies, however, may have underestimated the potential benefits of off-grid solar power. This is because they don’t consider the cost impacts of poor reliability or of carbon price schemes.

    I was part of a team of scientists using a new approach to assessing the cost of different energy access options. It combines modelling individual energy systems with spatial data covering large areas. Our approach allows us to put a cost to the reliability and the pollution of different sources of electricity. When you account for these, the relative attractiveness of technologies may change.

    Our research explores the role off-grid solar could play in different scenarios in Africa. It covered 43 countries for which data is available, and that are home to more than 99% of the continent’s population without access. Below, we will highlight two countries, Nigeria and Mozambique.

    Cost of carbon and cost of poor reliability

    Using our new approach, we analyse which parts of each country would find solar to be the cheapest technology. We do this at a fine level of detail. Our scenarios include either a carbon price, or a penalty for poor reliability. We can show what policy would make the greatest impact in a given location.

    Electricity access can be arranged into tiers that combine different levels of wattage, hours of availability, number of disruptions, affordability and so on.

    For our medium electricity demand scenario (tier 3), our modelling suggests that off-grid solar would be cheapest for 65 million more people if you applied a carbon price to the calculation. If you applied a reliability penalty, off-grid solar would be cheapest for 80 million more people.

    Carbon markets are financial markets which put a price on emitting greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. These markets influence the relative cost and shares of different electricity generation technologies. However, the use of carbon credits on the African continent remains limited as they are a relatively new initiative on the continent.

    The reliability of supply is crucial in determining the value of a connection. Poor reliability can lead to reduced security and reduced household income.

    Off-grid solar systems may offer improved reliability when compared to national grid networks.

    To demonstrate our methods and findings more clearly, let’s look at two countries in more detail: Nigeria and Mozambique.

    Nigeria

    Nigeria has an unreliable grid, with service levels worse in rural areas. Our analysis projects that Nigeria will have as many as 55 million households – around 20% of the population – without electricity access in 2030. In our research, we find that off-grid solar would be the cheapest way for connecting between 5% and 60% of these people to electricity.

    But solar’s economic viability versus the traditional grid network depends on the level of demand for electricity. At low electricity usage (tier 2 or 200Wh per day), off-grid solar beats traditional electricity grid networks. It meets the energy needs of a higher proportion of the population (60%) at lower cost.

    The reverse is true when demand for electricity is higher (tier 4 or 3,400Wh per day). Under this scenario, high electricity usage demands traditional electricity grids.

    Poor reliability of national electricity grids is an issue on the continent. When the costs of poor reliability are included in the calculation, solar becomes more competitive. It meets the needs of between 38% and 65% of the 55 million households in Nigeria.

    This finding highlights that to provide reliable access, focusing on off-grid solar may be the best solution. Nigeria is already using subsidies to encourage this.



    Read more:
    Nigeria’s chronic power shortages: mini grids were going to crack the problem for rural people, but they haven’t. Here’s why

    Mozambique

    In Mozambique, we estimate that more than 16 million people (40% of the population) will remain without access to electricity by 2030. As it is for Nigeria, off-grid solar power is cheaper for lower electricity usage levels. Off-grid solar would, by our estimates, be cheapest for between 28% and 88% of the 16 million people, depending on demand levels.

    When carbon pricing is factored in, this increases to 88% from 50%, with the greatest impact seen at higher demand levels. Our research also shows the carbon price levels that are effective at different demand levels, for different parts of the country.

    Due to differences in the costs of different technologies in different places, there is variation in policy effectiveness and thresholds. When considering where carbon credit schemes may be most effective, stakeholders should consider areas highlighted as seeing a shift in technology at the lower price level.



    Read more:
    Mozambique’s unstable and expensive power supply is devastating small businesses – study examines what’s gone wrong

    Targeted policy can boost access and reliability in Africa

    When considering energy policy across a large region, country-specific and localised factors are paramount. We do not pretend to capture all of these in our research. However, our use of spatial data, and country-level demand and supply modelling, tries to move in the right direction.

    Hamish Beath receives funding from UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and Research England GCRF QR Funding, UK.

    – ref. Powering Africa: new model compares options for off-grid solar in 43 countries – https://theconversation.com/powering-africa-new-model-compares-options-for-off-grid-solar-in-43-countries-232192

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gangs’stories: Marwan, or how to find redemption in Cape Town

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Steffen Bo Jensen, Professor, Department of Politics and Society, Aalborg University

    For the past five years, the GANGS project, a European Research Council-funded project led by Dennis Rodgers, has been studying global gang dynamics in a comparative perspective. When understood in a nuanced manner that goes beyond the usual stereotypes and Manichean representations, gangs and gangsters arguably constitute fundamental lenses through which to think about and understand the world we live in.

    Steffen Jensen recounts the story of Marwan, whose life is in many ways a reflection of the last 75 years of South African history, having had to navigate the violence of apartheid, prison, the Cape Flat drug wars. Central to his narrative are the notions of damnation and redemption.

    I picked up Marwan one cloudy morning in May 2019, from his house in the backstreets of Heideveld, the township Cape Town, South Africa, where I have been conducting fieldwork on gangs on and off for 25 years. While much has changed over the years, the gang scene in Cape Town remains depressingly violent. In one of the other townships where I have been doing fieldwork since 2018, more than 160 have died in the past year. Gangs exist in almost all townships and partly for this reason, Cape Town remains one of the most violent and deadly cities in the world.

    Sixty-year-old Marwan exudes strength as he walks over to my car, and greets me in his light blue Islamic attire. Although not particularly tall, he is well built in a wiry way, and there is an embodied intensity to him that contrasts with his soft-spokenness.

    We are in the middle of Ramadan, and he tells me that he is happy to see me, although he is also very busy, preparing for a wedding with his new, much younger partner, as well as 10 days of prayer in the local mosque.

    We decide to talk in a nearby park, where we begin what will end up being an eight-hour interview. During this time, Marwan leads me through his life in a way that is entirely his own choosing: “It was a Tuesday… I remember it well. I was wearing an orange jacket…”

    A microcosm of South Africa’s recent history

    Marwan’s life is in many ways a microcosm of South Africa’s recent history. It was fundamentally shaped by apartheid, particularly through the introduction of racist laws and policies, which included the displacement of non-white populations from central Cape Town to council housing estates on the outskirts, known as the Cape Flats. It was then also influenced by the instability of the post-apartheid era, characterised by high levels of crime and violence.

    His family was one of the tens of thousands displaced from the Cape Town city centre in the 1960s, leading Marwan to grow up in the difficult environment of the Cape Flats. At the age of 16, in the mid-1970s, he began dealing drugs, quickly acquiring a notorious reputation, allowing him to operate semi-independently of the local gangs.

    Marwan’s story exemplifies how drug dealing has critically impacted local gang structures. Before the mid-1970s, drugs did not play an important role in gang formation. They were mostly self-defence gangs protecting neighbourhoods against the hostile environment of the new housing estates. However, when the Mandrax drug was introduced around 1975, it radically transformed the nature of the gangs and their use of violence.

    Life with the Terrible Joosters

    Marwan joined one of the local gangs in Heideveld, the Terrible Joosters, and began dealing drugs. While the local gang in Heideveld gained in importance, he started making a name for himself as a robie, someone that focuses on robberies and break-ins. He excelled and joined city-wide criminal networks outside Heideveld, located in neighbouring Bridge Town, where the American gang became increasingly dominant. It was the conflict with the Americans that was partly instrumental in sending him to jail. In the interview, he describes a year of madness that began with his shooting a police officer. It then descended into increased drug abuse and gang violence, including shooting a member of the same criminal network, because, he said, the man had sold them out to the Americans. As a result, in 1982, Marwan received a long prison sentence.

    Marwan is no stranger to prisons. He had been in and out of them since his late teens, but this was his longest sentence. Like his involvement with drugs before, his prison trajectory reflected the changing nature of Cape Town’s gang dynamics.

    The relationship between prison gangs and street gangs has been complicated since the emergence of both in the 1940s. Prisons in South Africa are partly controlled by an intricate gang system with its own belief structure, which includes a perceived resistance to apartheid and racist regimes. The system also enforces control through the so-called numbers, referring to the three main gangs, 26, 27 and 28.

    The numbers represent distinct gangs, each with a specific role within the prison hierarchy. This hierarchy is enforced through strict codes and significant violence against each other, guards, and non-gang members. Through his connections with gang-affiliated individuals and drug dealers both inside and outside the prison, Marwan quickly joined the 26 gang and rose through the ranks to become one of its leaders.

    Gangsters often have a sell-by date

    After Marwan left prison in 1998, his life became intertwined with the Cape Flats “gang wars” of the late 1990s and early 2000s. This city-wide war, involving his old enemies in the Americans, was much more brutal than the ones he had fought earlier on. He was horrified.

    He complained about the stupidity of the youngsters: “If they get a name, they are a gang and they will die”, he told me back in 1999. There is a generational dimension to this. Most gangs last about 10 years. The gangs Marwan saw in the late 1990s were descendants – often sons – of the gangsters of Marwan’s generation.

    Many gangsters face an inevitable expiration date, often ending up dead, imprisoned, or suffering from serious health issues due to a life of violence, hardship, and drug abuse. However, some do manage to successfully leave behind the world of gangs and crime.

    In his mid-40s, increasingly burned out, Marwan underwent a religious conversion that allowed him to “leave” his criminal life behind.

    Marwan’s life story is both a violent and strangely moral tale of comradery, solidarity, justice and of outwitting the racist apartheid state under the most arduous circumstances. Though not necessarily representative, it provides a privileged view into the Capetonian underworld and how it animated and was animated by political structures.

    How I became a gang war chronicler

    Our meeting in 2019 reminded me of my first encounter with Marwan, 20 years before, in December 1998.

    He had just been released from prison after serving a 19-year sentence for multiple charges, including robbery, violence, drug dealing, and shooting a police officer. He was the brother-in-law of my best friend and confidante in Cape Town, Shahiedah.

    I was conducting my doctoral fieldwork on gang dynamics, and over the following months, as the ongoing gang wars in the Cape Flats escalated, Marwan assumed a somewhat distant yet pivotal role as a guardian, helping me navigate the violent and unpredictable ganglands of post-apartheid Cape Town.

    I once told Marwan that I planned to interview members of their rival gang, the Americans. Marwan – and nearly all of my other contacts – lived in New Yorker territory. The war between the New Yorkers and the Americans was a local manifestation of a larger conflict over control of the drug market in a city going through a huge turmoil: transitioning from a closed environment due to strict apartheid to opening up post-1994.

    The transition produced a volatile environment in which the transforming state struggled to find its feet, not least because of the wave of crime and violence. Murder rates soared and bombings became the order of the day. Seared in my memory was a Cape Argus newspaper article published on January 2, 1999, which quantified both the violence and the police’s impotence in the previous year: 668 attacks, 118 arrests, 0 convictions.

    This created an atmosphere of fear and unpredictability.

    Marwan had heard about my upcoming interview through the local rumour machine. He looked at me, and said gravely, without any context or explanation: ‘In a conflict like this, you cannot stay neutral. Everybody must choose sides’. ‘You too?’, I asked. ‘Also me. Everyone!’.

    What I understood was that I wouldn’t be able to offer a “neutral” narrative, I had to tell the story from the perspective of one gang. That day, I became a chronicler of the war from the (ultimately losing) side of the New Yorker gang…

    A story of redemption

    Although we chatted regularly in his house, I never managed to formally interview Marwan when I was in Cape Town in 1998-99. He was always on his way somewhere – to the shops, the doctor, his mother or he simply stood me up. I saw him from time to time during subsequent visits in the 2000s and 2010s, but only to greet him and see how he was doing.

    Hence, when I returned to South Africa in 2019 in the context of the GANGS project, I was determined to not let him escape me this time, and get him to open up about his life.

    And what a storyteller he was. But beyond the rich content of his tale and the wider insights it offered about gang dynamics in Cape Town, I was most struck by Marwan’s ability to maintain complete control over his narrative.

    He would often chide me whenever I tried to hurry his story along, especially when he got caught up in small details or when I wanted him to move on to a new event. “I want to tell it right,” he would say. “Wait, I’ll get to that when the time is right.”

    At one point, he described a court case he was involved in, after being accused of shooting a policeman:

    “You can have the best lawyer or the best advocate, but it’s what you say and the answers you give that makes you guilty or not guilty. That’s the main thing. How you tell your story. What I thought, what I was going through in my mind – everything you describe, so the judge can see your picture. A story without a picture is not the truth.”

    What insight, I thought. And in many ways, his constant production of images applied to the entire story that he told me. The way that Marwan told his story was as a narrative of redemption and salvation. The critical turning point in his story was how, a few years after having been released from prison, he had planned a heist with some friends, but suddenly refused to carry it out.

    “They [came by] and wanted to confirm the time we were going. I said, ‘You know what, I’ve changed my mind.’ ‘What do you mean you changed your mind?’ ‘No, I changed my mind. You two can go. But I am not going.’ ‘Why?’ I said, ‘There is no reason, but I just feel I am not going anymore.’ And they left. And I’ve never saw them again.”

    Marwan was convinced that his last-minute change of heart saved his life, as both friends ended up dead over the next couple of months. One was found hanged and the other was found in the trunk of a burnt-out car. For Marwan, even if he did not realise it at the time, felt that he had been “warned by Allah” not to go. This marked Marwan’s turn toward religion. He finally accepted Allah into his heart, and turned his life around, leaving his gang years behind.

    While I learned from interviews with his family that Marwan’s decision to leave behind a life of crime was only partially true – he continued dealing drugs and was involved in some gruesome acts of violence – he presented his moment of religious conversion as the pivotal point in his life, a moment of redemption. From that point on, his narrative focused on his piety and the long hours he spent at the mosque, portraying himself as a growingly accepted, though still somewhat suspicious, member of the Muslim community.

    Strong bones

    Do Marwan’s relapses into crime suggest that his narrative of redemption was false, and that he was merely manipulating me? It’s possible. This is always a consideration in interviews like these, particularly given the ambiguous and controversial nature of many of Marwan’s activities over the years. However, instead of viewing his story as a web of lies and misrepresentations, we might interpret these conflicting incidents as evidence of the co-existence of different moral narratives.

    A key moral concept on the Cape Flats is the notion of “sterk bene” or “strong bones”. According to Elaine Salo, this is the ability to endure humiliations, violence, and the injustices of a racialized society. The term originated in prisons to describe the kind of “hard man” toughness that Marwan projected, even after his religious conversion. This strength is often associated with being a criminal.

    In this context, Marwan’s redemption narrative and his display of “strong bones” can be seen as two culturally intelligible moral frameworks that exist in parallel – and at times in conflict – with one another. Perhaps Marwan would argue that, to survive on the Cape Flats, you need both: redemption and strong bones

    Steffen Bo Jensen is a senior researcher at DIGNITY-Danish Institute Against Torture and a professor at the Department of Politics and Society, Aalborg University in Denmark

    – ref. Gangs’stories: Marwan, or how to find redemption in Cape Town – https://theconversation.com/gangsstories-marwan-or-how-to-find-redemption-in-cape-town-223902

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mass animal extinctions: our new tool can show why large mammals – like the topi – are in decline

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Joseph Ogutu, Senior Researcher and Statistician, University of Hohenheim

    We could be witnessing the sixth mass extinction at an alarming rate worldwide. It’s marked by the rapid loss of species due to human activities like habitat destruction, pollution and climate change. Unlike previous mass extinctions, which were caused by natural events, this one is driven by human impact – like growing populations, pollution, invasive plant species and human-wildlife conflict.

    Large mammals are especially at risk, in Africa as elsewhere. For instance, nearly 60% of wild herbivores – such as elephants and hippos – are already threatened with extinction.

    Effective conservation and recovery strategies are needed. To develop them, you need to know how the population of a certain animal is doing and, if it is in decline, what’s causing it.

    One tool that’s useful here is a model, using biology, maths, statistics and computer software.

    The problem is that there aren’t enough of these realistic, effective models for large mammals. There’s a shortage of appropriate data and the models are complex to build.

    I was part of a team that developed a model to help fill that void. It’s the first to account for how large mammal populations interact with each other and their environment while also incorporating their detailed biology. It draws on valuable existing data and can be adapted for various wildlife species.

    We tested the model on populations of east Africa’s topi (a large antelope). From the results we’re able to deduce that the drivers of the topi’s massive population decline were habitat loss, poaching and killing by predators.

    Knowing what’s driving population declines is extremely valuable. Large mammals play a critical role in ecosystems. Changes to their populations will also affect many other species and could cause the extinction of connected species.

    How the model works

    Our model combines different types of data, like total population size from aerial surveys and ground vehicle counts, with predicted data on population figures. This allows us to estimate and track population trends that can’t be captured by just one data type. It considers factors like animal age, sex, gestation length, weaning period, calves per birth per year, birth rates, survival, and environmental influences like rainfall and temperature.

    Essentially, the model starts with educated guesses, then updates these guesses as it processes more observed data.

    The model can tell what causes a decline in two ways.

    First, it finds out which factors (such as rainfall) have a strong negative impact on things like birth rates, survival or recruitment, and shows exactly how they affect each other.

    Second, it lets us use simulations to see how changing one of these factors, while keeping others unchanged, changes the population by influencing its key characteristics (such as birth rate).

    Testing the model on topi

    We tested our model on the topi population found in Kenya, Tanzania and other African countries. We chose the topi because it’s a large herbivore in decline.

    The topi is an elegant antelope weighing between 91kg and 147kg, with a long face and uniquely twisted horns. One of the largest remaining topi populations in east Africa occurs in the Greater Mara-Serengeti Ecosystem, which straddles the border between Kenya and Tanzania.

    Kenya’s Directorate of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing has, since 1977, monitored numbers and distribution of topi, and other large wild herbivores and livestock, using aerial surveys in the country’s rangelands, covering 88% of Kenya.

    Based on this data, we can see that topi numbers have declined persistently and strikingly (by 84.5%) in Kenya’s Masai Mara ecosystem between 1977 and 2022, even those in protected conservation areas.

    This decline indicates a high risk of extinction if the trend persists. This is a serious concern, since other antelope species, such as the roan, have gone extinct in the Mara in recent decades.

    But the causes haven’t been fully established.

    We ran the aerial and ground survey data into the model in a computer on a monthly interval. This approach allows the model to capture patterns in trends and dynamics on a monthly scale. It allows us to see the distribution of births per month, the timing of births, the degree to which multiple females in a population give birth around the same time, the proportion of females in a population that give birth, the total number of individuals of each age and sex in each month, and the proportion of young that survive to adulthood.

    The model starts with initial guesses based on existing knowledge, and refines the guesses as it processes more actual data.

    It produces results that match the observed patterns of population decline, seasonality of births and how many animals survive to become juveniles or to adulthood.

    Based on these findings, we see that the decline in the topi population is driven by a combination of low adult female numbers, low newborn survival and low recruitment into the adult class because most young (over 95%) die before they become adults.

    Based on the model, we attribute these changes to impacts from environmental changes, human activities and predation. For instance, since adult animals are the least sensitive to climatic changes, this suggests other factors – such as habitat loss or deterioration, poaching or high predation rates – are likely contributing to the decline.

    The new model enhances our understanding of large herbivore population dynamics besides confirming existing knowledge.

    By combining different kinds of data from different sources, the model helps estimate and track important population details that one type of data alone can’t show. For example, for the first time data is captured that can track the total number of topi of each age and sex in each month, how many adult female topi are ready to conceive and the various stages of pregnancy. This method also estimates changes in the total topi population by age and sex in all four zones of the Mara, even in zones without direct ground age and sex data.

    Refining and enhancing the model

    The team is now extending the model to include more features (like the influence of livestock numbers), make it user friendly, apply it to more wildlife species and assess the effectiveness of ongoing and planned management actions.

    Improving our understanding of the drivers of large mammal losses will ensure that the right conservation actions are taken. It’ll also ensure resources aren’t wasted because solutions could include investing in major infrastructure, changing wildlife conservation and livestock production policies, changing law enforcement and rehabilitation of wildlife habitats – all of which are costly.

    Joseph Ogutu has received funding from the German Research Foundation and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. He is affiliated with the non-profits: One Mara-Research Hub (OMRH) and the Greater Serengeti Conservation Society. This research was partly funded by the World Wide Fund for Nature–East Africa Program and Friends of Conservation.

    – ref. Mass animal extinctions: our new tool can show why large mammals – like the topi – are in decline – https://theconversation.com/mass-animal-extinctions-our-new-tool-can-show-why-large-mammals-like-the-topi-are-in-decline-233882

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A new wave of Venezuelan refugees would threaten a humanitarian crisis – Latin America could learn from Europe

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Omar Hammoud Gallego, Assistant Professor in Public Policy, Durham University

    Latin American countries are bracing themselves for a wave of Venezuelan migrants. Sebastian Delgado C / Shutterstock

    Venezuela’s disputed election results have thrown the country into chaos. The authoritarian leader of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, was declared the winner in a contested vote in July and, since then, has used state violence to inhibit any hint of protest.

    The crackdown has led to the deaths of more than 20 people at the hands of Venezuela’s security services and pro-government armed groups known as colectivos, while more than 2,400 people have been thrown in jail. And the opposition candidate who is widely believed to have won the vote, Edmundo González, has fled to Spain after being threatened with arrest.

    This swift escalation has sparked widespread concern throughout Latin America and beyond. Another wave of migration may be imminent, adding to the nearly 8 million people who have already left Venezuela since 2015. Countries across Latin America, especially Colombia, have expressed concern that a new surge of displaced Venezuelans might overwhelm public services and fuel political tensions.

    It is possible that governments in the region may respond by imposing stricter border controls to stem the flow of migrants. But past experience shows that this move would both be ineffective and harmful.

    Venezuela is a nation that was once known for its vast oil wealth. However, it has endured a prolonged period of economic and political instability. The country’s democratic backsliding began under former president Hugo Chávez in the early 2000s, but it worsened dramatically after he died in 2013 and Maduro came to power.

    Maduro’s rule has been marked by rampant inflation, a 75% reduction in GDP, and widespread political repression. These conditions have led to one of the largest migrations in modern history. Nearly a quarter of Venezuela’s population have fled their homes, primarily to other South American countries.



    Read more:
    Venezuelan migrants are boosting economic growth in South America, says research

    Initially, many Latin American nations coordinated their response. Governments came together in Ecuador to sign the Quito Declaration in 2018, for example, which committed them to ensuring the safe and regular migration of Venezuelan citizens.

    However, this cooperative spirit soon began to unravel. Chile, Ecuador and Peru made it much harder for ordinary Venezuelans to enter their countries legally by introducing visa restrictions by the middle of 2019. These restrictions replaced earlier policies that allowed entry to Ecuador and Peru with just an ID card.

    The effectiveness of these restrictions has been the subject of much debate. In a recent study, I compared the experiences of countries that introduced restrictions with those of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, which kept their borders open.

    My findings suggest that restricting migration in South America has not prevented it. Migration has instead been driven underground, with significant costs both for migrants and host countries.

    The introduction of visa restrictions led to a 38% increase in the number of Venezuelan migrants who crossed borders via unauthorised routes, and a 41% rise in migrants without a regular residency permit in their destination country. The number of Venezuelan migrants who lacked legal status in their host country also jumped from less than one-in-five to more than half.

    This shift towards irregularity has had consequences. For example, I found that falling into irregularity led to a shift in migrants’ priorities away from seeking employment and towards trying to regularise their migratory status.

    There is also no evidence to suggest that migrants redirected their journeys to South American countries with more open policies. In fact, the composition of migrants remained largely unchanged after the introduction of restrictions.

    Lessons from Europe

    Before the election, a poll conducted by Venezuelan firm Meganálisis indicated that around 40% of Venezuelans would consider leaving the country if Maduro remained in power. This represents a potentially staggering increase in migration, even if we account for the gap between intention and action.

    To avoid exacerbating an already critical situation, countries in the region must adopt pragmatic policies that prioritise safe and regular migration. And they should offer regular status to migrants that already reside there.

    Europe’s response to the mass displacement caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers lessons that Latin American governments should not ignore.

    In 2022, the EU coordinated efforts to allow Ukrainian refugees free and safe movement throughout Europe, while also guaranteeing their right to work and residency, as well as access to health and educational services.



    Read more:
    Ukraine war: a year on, here’s what life has been like for refugees in the UK

    Despite the massive scale of this displacement, at over 6 million refugees, there was no widely reported “Ukrainian refugee crisis” because of this cooperative approach.

    Ukrainian refugees entering Romania after crossing the border.
    Pazargic Liviu / Shutterstock

    While the refugee status of Ukrainians in Europe is guaranteed up to February 2026 (and can be extended if the European Council agrees), the story is quite different for displaced Venezuelans. Despite being considered refugees by the UN and the laws of most Latin American countries, governments in the region have largely decided not to recognise them as such.

    Nevertheless, Latin American governments should pursue a strategy similar to the one we have seen in Europe. This must include renewing their commitment to the principles outlined in the Quito Declaration, as well as establishing common standards across the region for the reception of Venezuelan migrants.

    These standards should include the possibility of allowing Venezuelans to cross borders using only their ID cards, as is still the case in Argentina and Brazil, given how costly passports and other travel documents are for many Venezuelans.

    Such requirements would significantly reduce the likelihood of irregular migration and, together with mass regularisation programmes, have a positive impact on the integration of Venezuelans into their host countries.

    As Venezuela continues to grapple with political and economic collapse, the international community – and particularly neighbouring Latin American nations – must be prepared for another surge of migration.

    But the response should not be to close borders or restrict access. Governments must instead coordinate to ensure safe, regular and humane migration routes.

    The future of millions of Venezuelans, as well as the stability of Latin America, depends on the region’s ability to manage this crisis effectively.

    Omar Hammoud Gallego has received funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council to conduct this research.

    – ref. A new wave of Venezuelan refugees would threaten a humanitarian crisis – Latin America could learn from Europe – https://theconversation.com/a-new-wave-of-venezuelan-refugees-would-threaten-a-humanitarian-crisis-latin-america-could-learn-from-europe-238345

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Starmer expresses interest in Italy’s migration approach – how different is it from the Rwanda plan?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chiara Graziani, Assistant professor, Law, Bocconi University

    One of Keir Starmer’s first actions as UK prime minister was to put an end to the controversial Rwanda asylum scheme. The plan, introduced by his predecessors, aimed to deter small boat crossings by sending those who reached the UK to Rwanda to have their claims assessed.

    So it was surprising to many observers to see Starmer visit Italy for a meeting with Giorgia Meloni about Italy’s handling of asylum seekers through an arrangement with Albania. At first glance, this approach is similar to the Rwanda plan.

    Both are examples of “externalisation” of immigration. This consists of collaborating with other countries to manage migration, often by moving immigrants who arrive on the soil of a certain country to the territory of another country. Forms of externalisation are used by several other countries, such as Australia, Canada and the US.

    The UK pursued this approach through its Rwanda scheme, under which anyone arriving irregularly in the UK to claim asylum would be moved to Rwanda to have their claims processed by Rwandan officials. In exchange, the UK had agreed to give Rwanda nearly £500 million in development funding, plus additional funds for each person moved.

    The policy faced serious political opposition and legal challenges, and ultimately never got off the ground before the general election.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    Italy’s partnership with Albania is different in some ways. Under a protocol signed by both countries, asylum seekers rescued at sea while trying to reach Italy will be moved to Albania for their applications to be examined. This will take place in processing centres that Italy will finance and build for this purpose.

    In those areas, however, Italian – and not Albanian – law will be applied and Italian authorities will be competent for the implementation of the process. Under the Rwanda scheme, Rwandan officials (and law) would have governed the asylum procedure once seekers were moved there. This was part of why the UK supreme court said it was not a “safe” country and ruled the plan unlawful.

    Additionally, successful applicants will be granted asylum in Italy, while the Rwanda plan would have only allowed them to stay in Rwanda (not come to the UK).



    Read more:
    Is the Rwanda plan acting as a deterrent? Here’s what the evidence says about this approach

    The Albanian programme is not up and running yet, but Starmer has praised Meloni’s “remarkable progress” in reducing irregular arrivals to Italy by 60%.

    In recent years, Italy has enacted other measures to manage migration by paying North African countries to stop illegal migration to Italy. Italy financed the construction of a maritime area where Tunisian boats can intervene and bring migrants to Tunisian soil.

    Similarly, Italy has outsourced search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean to the Libyan Coast Guard, in exchange for funding to enhance Libyan migration infrastructure and a commitment to improve conditions of reception centres.

    However, human rights groups, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have raised serious concerns about these arrangements. In both cases, they say, reception centres amount to fully fledged detention centres, under poor conditions potentially amounting to inhumane and degrading treatment. Meloni has called such accusations “completely groundless”.

    An investigation by The Guardian newspaper, published after Starmer’s visit to Italy, detailed harsh abuse of migrants by Tunisian coast guard and border patrol. Human rights groups have been raising concerns for years about the Libyan Coast Guard’s treatment of migrants in distress at sea, including potentially conducting illegal “pushback” operations, which involve pushing boats back across a border they have crossed.



    Read more:
    The EU’s outsourced migration control is violent, expensive and ineffective

    Potential hurdles

    Starmer has said he is “interested” in Italy’s plan with Albania, and has expressed openness to other forms of externalisation. He also wants the UK to work closer with other European states to cooperate on migration.

    One positive side to the Italian model is undoubtedly that Italy does not waive its legal jurisdiction. Italian law applies in the Albanian processing centres, although conflicts with Albanian law (whose jurisdiction can’t be eliminated totally) may arise. If the UK incorporates this aspect in any future plan, it could mitigate a key weak point of the Rwanda plan.

    The Italian scheme also explicitly guarantees that the UN refugee commissioner oversees the process taking place in Albania, in theory ensuring that international human rights standards are met. However, it is certainly possible that these safeguards might be overlooked in the practical enforcement of the agreement, for example because Italian law will need to be applied by officers of a foreign country.

    It is worth nothing that Italy and the UK currently have very different geopolitical positions. Italy is an EU member state, and bound by European asylum laws and standards. This too could cause future legal issues should any of Italy’s actions in Albania violate EU law.

    Any externalisation policy will always involve balancing several interests. First and foremost, the need to comply with human rights standards, but also the fair handling of migration, and the necessity to avoid some countries taking more people than they can support.

    These pressures will be different for the UK than for Italy, and must be carefully considered. Just as the migration of people is a thorny issue, so too is the migration of policy.

    Chiara Graziani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Starmer expresses interest in Italy’s migration approach – how different is it from the Rwanda plan? – https://theconversation.com/starmer-expresses-interest-in-italys-migration-approach-how-different-is-it-from-the-rwanda-plan-223405

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: La Maison captures the drama, intrigue and intense rivalry of the luxury fashion world

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Elizabeth Kealy-Morris, Senior Lecturer and Researcher in Dress and Belonging, Manchester Fashion Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University

    With the release of dramas Cristóbal Balenciaga, The New Look and Becoming Karl Lagerfeld, the fashion drama miniseries has become a staple for streaming television in 2024.

    The latest offering, French-language drama La Maison on Apple TV, captures the essence of the drama and intrigue surrounding Maison Ledu, a fictional luxury haute couture house controlled by the Ledu family.

    The dynamics between key characters are well outlined, and explore universal themes such as love, power, ambition and betrayal, as well as a longing for connection, acceptance and identity. In this way La Maison has little to do with apparel and clothing in their materiality: the camera does not linger over sketches or runway collections. The series, instead, engages with fashion on a more abstract level, highlighting how it intersects with broader human concerns.

    Vincent Ledu (Lambert Wilson) is the celebrated designer whose scandal threatens to the future of Maison Ledu. His racist tirade against a wealthy Korean client was captured by catering staff at a pubic function and posted on social media by Ledu’s scheming nephew in a bid to ruin his uncle’s reputation.

    Perle Foster (Amira Casar) is Vincent’s former principal model and inspiration who, despite her lasting attachment to Vincent, is crucial in the house’s post-scandal revival. Paloma Castel (Zita Hanrot) is the orphaned mixed-heritage daughter of Vincent’s long-time gay lover. Neither were accepted into the family and this tension of class, race, and sexual orientation difference is central to the plot throughout the series.

    The character of Paloma, in her early 30s, represents millenial indifference to tradition, hierarchy and heritage. We meet her in the first episode as the co-designer of a Berlin-based luxury eco-focused ready-to-wear brand. It’s marking a milestone with its first runway show at Paris Fashion Week with other brands’ deadstock (unsold inventory) forming the runway collection.

    The trailer for La Maison.

    In a bid to ensure the Ledu brand makes radical shifts in creative leadership after the racism scandal, Perle seeks to sideline Vincent and draw Paloma into Maison Ledu as the next-generation designer who will bring innovation and hope to Maison’s restoration. Diane Rovel (Carole Bouquet), the iron-fisted CEO and matriarch of the Rovel Luxury Group, represents the archetype of the fashion conglomerate within fashion markets, controlled by the monetary interests of anonymous shareholders. Viewers learn early that her acquisition plans for Maison Ledu are driven by strategic interest and personal vendetta.

    The luxury fashion market

    The series effectively sets up the central conflict, the stakes involved and the potential for dramatic and strategic manoeuvres. It paints a vivid picture of the internal and external pressures faced by Maison Ledu as it struggles to navigate its crisis, a problem that has notably rocked actual luxury fashion houses in recent years. An interesting aspect of the series is the contemporary understanding of the role social media plays in creating spectacle that brings people together as well as divides.

    The luxury fashion market seeks to protect and extend agreed assumptions of how such brands function via rarity, exclusivity and uniqueness to add value to their brand DNA, products and businesses. Luxury brands must ensure coherence between values, narratives, highly skilled craft and artistic techniques, with space for both tradition and innovation. By integrating these elements harmoniously, a brand can sustain its luxury status and build a lasting impression of excellence and exclusivity.

    Luxury fashion, clothing and apparel markets depend on the objects they design becoming status symbols. But they also rely on the allure, appeal, imagination and magic promised through fashion stories that are told through photography and videography. This latest AppleTV+ fashion drama is released against the backdrop of shifting consumer expectations in the luxury sector, particularly in the wake of the COVID pandemic.

    There has been a transformative shift from traditional “show-and-tell” marketing to more immersive and interactive brand experiences. Consumers now seek to “join and experience” luxury brands rather than merely observe – and this is driving brands to create engaging content that extends beyond the product itself. This evolution has given rise to innovative strategies, including online videos, interactive events and sophisticated uses of technology to enhance post-purchase engagement.

    The rise of the fashion series is a direct response to these changing consumer preferences. By integrating high-quality media narratives with brand storytelling, these series offer a novel avenue for brands to convey their history and ethos, creating a platform for the fashion industry to captivate audiences and deepen their connection with the brand narrative.

    As streaming platforms continue to gain prominence, the collaboration between fashion houses and media producers is likely to expand. This means that in the future, the intersection of fashion and storytelling will become increasingly integral to brand identity and consumer connection.

    So while both Maison Ledu and Rovel Luxury Group are fictitious brands, shows like La Maison as a general marketing tool for real-world fashion houses and brands. Meanwhile the location of Paris for this series is testament to that city as the global centre of haute couture – and the stakes involved in it remaining so.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Elizabeth Kealy-Morris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. La Maison captures the drama, intrigue and intense rivalry of the luxury fashion world – https://theconversation.com/la-maison-captures-the-drama-intrigue-and-intense-rivalry-of-the-luxury-fashion-world-239233

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kaos hinges on prophecies – historian explains the real oracles that inspired the Netflix show

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ellie Mackin Roberts, Research fellow, University of Bristol

    This article contains spoilers for series one of Kaos.

    Central to the plot of Netflix’s new series, Kaos, are four prophecies. In the lore of the series, all humans are given a prophecy, and no two can be the same. There’s just one problem – all four important prophecies in the show are identical:

    A line appears

    The order wanes

    The family falls

    and Kaos reigns.

    Each of the prophecy’s four recipients – Zeus (Jeff Goldblum), Riddy (Aurora Perrineau), Caeneus (Misia Butler) and Ari (Leila Farzad) – interprets, and therefore acts upon, the prophecy in a way that makes sense to their own lives. Their connected fates highlight the series’s theme of interconnected destinies and the inescapable nature of prophecy.

    By the end of the first series, three of the four lines of the prophecy have come true. A vertical wrinkle appears on Zeus’s forehead, driving his obsession with instilling fear of the gods into mortals once more. A hierarchy shift ends the season with Prometheus sitting on Zeus’s throne, which exemplifies the order waning. The families of each of the three mortal recipients fall apart.

    Watching the show, you may have understood the prophecies differently. After all, prophecy is open to interpretation. Or, is it?

    Priestess of Delphi by John Collier (1891), depicting Pythia.
    Art Gallery of South Australia

    In Kaos, the Fates (who the ancient Greeks called the Moirai) are responsible for making prophecies about the gods and their followers. There’s Clotho (Ché), who spins the thread of life, Lachesis (Suzy Eddie Izzard), who measures out the thread and Atropos (Sam Buttery), who cuts it off, marking the end of life.

    In ancient Greek mythology, the Moirai controlled the destiny of men and – in some instances – gods, but they were not responsible for making prophecies. This task fell to the gods, usually Apollo and Zeus, who made prophecies in response to questions people asked.

    As real people couldn’t speak to the gods directly, they went to religious officials known as oracles. The Delphic Oracle, associated with Apollo, god of music and healing as well as prophecy, was the most famous and prestigious of these oracles.

    Also known as the Pythia, she was Apollo’s high priestess and was the one who delivered the prophecies (numerous women fulfilled the role over the years). Ancient people believed the Pythia to be directly inspired by Apollo, and her words were taken to be coming from him.

    We do not fully understand how this process worked, though there have been suggestions that the Pythia went into a trance through chewing laurel leaves, which were sacred to Apollo. Another theory suggests trances were induced through toxic gasses entering the room within the temple she worked in, through a natural fissure in the rock.



    Read more:
    Hidden women of history: the priestess Pythia at the Delphic Oracle, who spoke truth to power

    Prophecies in Kaos

    It is from literary reports of oracles from Delphi that the format of Kaos’s prophecies derives.

    Although historical oracles are usually not poetic, those from literary accounts of history, such as Herodotus’s The Histories, are often presented in hexameter (a kind of poetic metrical meter consisting of six parts per line).

    One famous oracle was reportedly given to the Athenians when they were preparing to fight off the Persians:

    But a wall made of wood does farsighted Zeus to Tritogenes grant

    Alone and unravaged, to help you and your children.

    The Athenians debated the meaning of these words, just as the characters in Kaos consider the interpretations of their own prophecies. They decided that it meant one of two things: that Athens would be fine because the Acropolis used to be surrounded by hedgerows, or that they should build a fleet of ships to be a “wooden wall” against the enemy.

    Themistokles, the main proponent of the second reading, won out and the fleet was built. Athens faced the Persian fleet at the battle of Salamis (an island off the coast of Athens) in 480BC and won, therefore, in their eyes, proving that this reading of the prophecy was correct.

    Interpreting prophecy

    In Kaos, show creator Charlie Covell has presented something very true to the spirit of prophecy in ancient Greek history and mythology – even while subverting the form that prophecy takes.

    In ancient Greece, Zeus couldn’t have received an oracular prophecy, as all prophecy was thought to originate from him. But he was subject to the destinies cast by the Moirai. For example, in the Iliad, Zeus is unable to save his mortal son, Sarpedon, from his fate (dying by the hand of Patroclus) – it is ultimately out of his control.

    In Kaos, through misunderstanding, interpretation and reinterpretation, the four recipients of the Fates’ prophecy each play a crucial role in its fulfilment – but only when they (and we) read that prophecy in our own ways.

    The prophecies of ancient Greece could later be revealed to be incorrectly interpreted. When Croesus, king of Lydia, was told that if he went to war he would destroy a great kingdom, he interpreted that as the Persian kingdom, but it turned out to be his own.

    So too might our understanding of the prophecy in Kaos turn out to be a misinterpretation. By expertly weaving the Moirai and oracles into the narrative, Kaos emphasises the crucial role of fate in reshaping the destinies of people and events, emphasising their interconnectedness. In doing so, the show reflects the ancient Greek belief in the power and inescapable nature of prophecy.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Ellie Mackin Roberts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kaos hinges on prophecies – historian explains the real oracles that inspired the Netflix show – https://theconversation.com/kaos-hinges-on-prophecies-historian-explains-the-real-oracles-that-inspired-the-netflix-show-238833

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The science of polarisation: our model shows what happens when political opponents lose their personal connection

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Schweighofer, Assistant Professor in Media and Communication, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University

    Bob Korn/Shutterstock

    What do immigration, inheritance taxation and cannabis legalisation have in common? Not much, actually. Yet if we know somebody’s stance on one of these issues, we can make a good guess about their view on the others.

    Politics often seems to work in one dimension: parties and politicians are located on a spectrum stretching from from far left to far right. Knowing someone’s opinion on a single wedge issue is often enough to place them on this ideological dimension, which in turn makes it possible to predict their positions on other issues. And in countries such as the US we’ve seen more and more people polarised into opposing political camps at either end of this spectrum.

    One-dimensional politics can seem as natural to us as an apple falling from a tree – it’s simply how we think about politics. But just like gravity, the mysterious force shaping our politics in this way does warrant a scientific explanation.

    My colleagues and I wanted to understand how people end up so profoundly divided, and the study we published earlier this year proposes a model for how it might work. It suggests the less we are able to separate politics from personal relations, the more polarised we become.

    This is more than just an academic matter. If politics is reduced to a single ideological dimension it can keep us from finding innovative solutions to our most urgent problems.

    If, for example, the best solution to a housing crisis were a combination of deregulation and public investment, it might not be possible to enact if each half of the solution were rejected by one side of the political spectrum. That makes understanding how politics can become so polarised important on a very practical level.

    The problem is that, no matter how far we look into the past, we overwhelmingly find politics organised along one main dimension of ideological conflict: before left v right, it was Catholics v Protestants, Roundheads v Cavaliers, all the way back to Optimates v Populares in ancient Rome.

    The issues may have changed, but the basic dichotomy has remained stable. This makes it very difficult to investigate the origins of one-dimensional politics. After all, we can’t experiment with whole societies – at least not in real life.

    Simulating societies

    To overcome this limitation, we decided to opt for an unusual approach. We created virtual societies, each populated by a multitude of simulated people, known as agents.

    Each agent had a variety of opinions, represented as coordinates in a space with several dimensions. We didn’t give specific meanings to the coordinates or the dimensions, but you can think of them as representing disconnected issues like defence spending, railway nationalisation or abortion rights.

    At the start of each simulation, the agents’ positions were purely random and not organised along a single ideological dimension of left versus right. But over time, the agents interacted and influenced each other, organising themselves into new collective states.

    These simulated societies therefore provided us with a testbed for different theories used in political science, such as the assumption that people are rational, to see whether they could explain one-dimensional politics and the emergence of political polarisation.

    To do this, we translated these theories into computational protocols that governed the agents’ interactions and the way they adapted their opinions. We then checked whether these protocols were enough to trigger the emergence of a single ideological dimension.

    Initially, we modelled our agents as rational decision makers in the tradition of mainstream political science. When encountering other agents, they would either meet them halfway, or reject them, But either way, this did not give rise to a single ideological dimension. Agents would either converge on a consensus or remain scattered.

    However, politics isn’t a purely rational affair. It’s often characterised by gut feelings and anger. But political science hasn’t always been successful in integrating emotion into decision-making models. So for inspiration we looked to one of the founders of social psychology.

    In the 1950s, Austrian-born psychologist Fritz Heider coined the term cognitive balance theory, which claims that people strive for consistency in their mental patterns. For example, we find it disconcerting when two of our friends hate each other, or a friend is in love with someone we despise. Similarly, we try to avoid disagreeing with people we like just as much as we avoid agreeing with people we dislike.

    We translated this balance mechanism into our simulation. When two of our agents encountered each other, they first determined how much they agreed or disagreed on various political issues. Then, they translated agreement into sympathy and disagreement into dislike. Finally, they adjusted their issue positions in a way that increased consistency.

    If they met someone with whom they mostly agreed, they adjusted their opinions to defuse the remaining disagreements. In the opposite case, they tried to make their disagreement stronger.

    All this happened in tiny increments every time agents met. But through a myriad of interactions, agents finally self-organised into single ideological dimensions – no matter how many issue dimensions we started the simulation with.

    We should make an effort to understand each other.
    Troy Walker/Shutterstock

    Where exactly individual agents ended up on this ideological continuum depended on one crucial factor: the strength of the connection between disagreement on issues and personal dislike.

    If this connection is weak – meaning agents could dislike each other but still agree, or like each other and disagree – agents remained close to the centre. If it was strong, the simulated society broke into two opposed camps – it became polarised.

    This suggests polarisation is linked to people’s ability to connect to others on a personal level. When we lose sight of the fact that those we disagree with are usually decent human beings with good intentions, we may find ourselves diverging more and more on political issues, with less room for compromise.

    This is notable at a time when so much political debate is conducted online through impersonal or anonymous social media accounts. The real world is much more complex than a one-dimensional view of politics would suggest. And people are much more than the political views they share online.

    In the end, we will never be able to eliminate the force of cognitive balance – just as we can’t get rid of gravity. But we can find ways to increase the personal connection between people who hold different political views.

    Simon Schweighofer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The science of polarisation: our model shows what happens when political opponents lose their personal connection – https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-polarisation-our-model-shows-what-happens-when-political-opponents-lose-their-personal-connection-239130

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who’s to blame when climate change turns the lights off?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chris Medland, PhD Candidate in Climate Change Resilience, University of Surrey

    Deadly Storm Boris has flooded large areas of central Europe and the UK, destroying homes and displacing thousands of people.

    With the flooding of sub-stations, the scouring of the foundations of pylons and river embankment failures, the rainstorm has also caused power outages many miles away. This will create yet more disruption as sewage pumping stations stall, train and tram services halt and vehicle charging points fail.

    The UK saw this ripple of infrastructure failure in the 2007 summer floods. The compound failures caused by flooding in Gloucestershire alone, a county in south-west England, left 350,000 people without mains water for over two weeks and 42,000 people without power.

    Commuters were stranded on the railway network and the M5 motorway. The floods also made thousands of people homeless. Similar floods struck the UK again in 2013 and 2020.

    All systems fail occasionally. But infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to disruptions caused by extreme weather, which is being made more severe and frequent as a result of climate change. The UK’s national risk register lists nine impacts of climate change that could seriously damage infrastructure (including storms, heatwaves and wildfires) that is increasingly complex and interconnected. A single failure can create a cascade of them.

    Risky business

    Your home may not be in the path of the next storm but the infrastructure it relies on might be. So who is responsible for making sure that the power stays on, the toilets can still flush and water keeps running from taps? Whose job is it to ensure infrastructure is resilient to climate change?

    People are responsible for their own resilience and that of their homes and private companies are responsible for the resilience of their operations. However, companies that operate services such as public transport, communications networks or utilities are overseen by regulators such as Ofgem (energy) and Ofwat (water).

    The resilience of the networks owned by companies is not subject to regulation directly, there is no minimum standard of resilience that must be maintained and no fines for failure. Instead, people affected by power outages, for example, can claim compensation after a certain degree of disruption.

    Installations were, generally, designed and built in an earlier climate.
    David Calvert/Shutterstock

    Within the government, the Cabinet Office takes the lead on planning the country’s resilience and is responsible for the government’s response to emergencies and for producing the national security risk assessment and the national risk register. Each risk is designated a lead government department, which works with agencies and public bodies that fall under its jurisdiction.

    For example, flood risk is considered by the Environment Agency which reports to the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (or Defra). Advisory bodies like the Climate Change Committee and the National Infrastructure Commission make recommendations to the government and assess its performance but have no powers to enforce action.

    There are 427 public bodies and agencies working under the legal frameworks set by the 24 government departments – none have a minimum standard for infrastructure resilience.

    The previous government committed to publishing resilience standards by 2025. Such standards would instruct utility companies and infrastructure operators on what measures were needed to prevent power cuts and other failures in the future. Discussions are happening in Whitehall that will shape the quality of life of millions of people for many years to come.

    Three futures

    Without taking all infrastructure into public ownership, or without all homes generating their own power and somehow meeting their own needs, what does the future look like? Is it down to homeowners to fend for themselves while landlords assume responsibility for the power and water of their tenants? In the worst-case scenario, will people be left to their own devices in a world reminiscent of Mad Max?

    There are three possibilities. The first is that society simply accepts more frequent failures and a lower standard of living for most. The second option includes the electricity grid, roads and railways, sewage treatment plants and other national infrastructure being updated and improved, with all the attendant costs.

    The third option would see people take direct action by adapting homes and communities to make them less dependent on national infrastructure. In this scenario, services are more localised such that communities or households become self-sufficient to varying degrees, perhaps establishing autonomous off-grid settlements.

    Renewable energy technology offers its generators a degree of autonomy.
    Hazel Plater/Shutterstock

    No government would be elected promising to preside over falling living standards. The other options come with many challenges. Option two assumes a great degree of government intervention and a high level of investment in new and improved infrastructure: flood defences, additional power cables, new rail way lines. Option three implies less involvement from central government and more power to local authority and community bodies to generate electricity and treat water for example.

    The future may well be a combination of these scenarios, but doing nothing isn’t an option. It’s not a question of if serious floods will happen again, but when.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Chris Medland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who’s to blame when climate change turns the lights off? – https://theconversation.com/whos-to-blame-when-climate-change-turns-the-lights-off-236446

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pink cocaine: the party drug cocktail putting a growing number of lives at risk

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joseph Janes, Lecturer in Criminology, Swansea University

    A synthetic drug cocktail known as pink cocaine, has rapidly become a major concern in Spain, the UK and beyond. Earlier this month, Spanish authorities carried out their largest ever synthetic drug bust, seizing a large quantity of pink cocaine alongside more than a million ecstasy pills. The operation targeted drug networks across Ibiza and Malaga.

    This dangerous substance has been linked to a growing number of drug-related deaths. The unpredictable composition and rising popularity of pink cocaine have sparked calls from European drug harm reduction organisations for urgent action to address the risks it poses.

    Despite its name, pink cocaine doesn’t necessarily contain any cocaine. Instead, it’s often a mixture of various other substances, including MDMA, ketamine and 2C-B. MDMA, commonly known as ecstasy, is a stimulant with psychedelic properties while ketamine is a powerful anaesthetic which has sedative and hallucinogenic effects. 2C drugs are classed as psychedelics but they can also produce stimulant effects.

    Typically found in powder or pill form, pink cocaine is known for its vibrant colour, which is designed to enhance its visual appeal. It’s coloured using food colouring and sometimes strawberry or other flavourings.

    The original psychedelic form of the drug dates to 1974 and was first synthesised by American biochemist, Alexander Shulgin. But the modern variant emerged around 2010 in Colombia and is a knock-off version.

    The drug gained popularity on the party scene in Latin America and has now spread to Europe. Common names for pink cocaine vary widely, from “cocaina rosada” and “tuci” to “Venus” and “Eros”.

    Russian roulette

    Today’s pink cocaine is an unpredictable mix of substances and that is where much of its danger lies. Users often expect a stimulant similar to cocaine, but the inclusion of ketamine can lead to serious health risks. Abuse of ketamine, which is widely available as a club drug, can lead to unconsciousness or dangerously laboured breathing. This in turn increases the potential dangers of pink cocaine.

    Its aesthetic look and “designer drug” status have contributed to its appeal, particularly among young people and first-time users. This mirrors the historical allure of drugs like cocaine and MDMA. It highlights a persistent trend where certain substances are glamourised despite their risks.

    Experts compare taking pink cocaine to playing Russian Roulette with substance use, underscoring the unpredictable and dangerous nature of pink cocaine.

    The drug has spread beyond Ibiza to the UK, and there is evidence that it has gained traction in Scotland, parts of Wales and England. Across the Atlantic, New York City has also seen a surge in its availability.

    Health officials across Europe are alarmed. Pink cocaine is difficult to detect through standard drug testing, particularly in Spain, where the current testing regime is not yet equipped to identify all its components.

    Warning to Brits over “Russian roulette” party drug pink cocaine | ITV News.

    The drug is sold for around US$100 per gram (£76) in Spain, and is often marketed as a high-end product. The legal response varies, with Spanish authorities working to curb its distribution.

    In the UK, pink cocaine falls under the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971, which classifies drugs into three categories, class A, B, and C, based on their perceived harm. While pink cocaine itself may not be explicitly listed, the substances commonly found in it are controlled by the law. Both MDMA and 2C-B are class A drugs, while ketamine is a class B.

    Harm reduction

    One of the most urgent needs highlighted by the rise of pink cocaine is for accessible drug-checking services. Drug-checking kits are an important harm-reduction tool for people looking to test the substances they intend to consume. These kits can help users identify unknown components, offering a layer of protection in a high-risk environment.

    My own work shows how vital such harm-reduction services are. Public awareness campaigns and support services are also an important part of reducing harm.

    The growing popularity of pink cocaine is a stark reminder of the ever-changing landscape of illicit drugs, where aesthetics, social media trends and risky behaviour can combine to create new threats. While its pink hue and “designer” label may attract a younger crowd, the unpredictable cocktail of chemicals it contains presents a serious and growing danger.

    As pink cocaine continues to spread through Europe and beyond, it is crucial that authorities, health services and the public are equipped to deal with the risks it poses.

    Joseph Janes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pink cocaine: the party drug cocktail putting a growing number of lives at risk – https://theconversation.com/pink-cocaine-the-party-drug-cocktail-putting-a-growing-number-of-lives-at-risk-237592

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine drone strikes demonstrate its continuing intent to fight the long war against Russia

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    Ukraine recently launched a long-range drone strike on a Russian ammunition depot in the Tver region of Russia. Ukraine followed up the strike with additional drone strikes near Tver and Krasnador.

    These strikes were notable for two reasons. First, the destruction may represent Ukraine’s most successful drone strikes in the current phase of the Russia-Ukraine war.

    Second, Toropets, where the first strike took place, is approximately 480 kilometres from the Russia-Ukraine border.

    The success of the attack has caused considerable elation among Ukraine’s supporters.

    The drone strikes, however, will not fundamentally alter the current battlefield. But they are part of broader efforts by Ukraine to undermine Russia’s ability to wage war. These efforts are unlikely to bear fruit in 2024, but do improve Ukraine’s position for 2025 and potentially beyond.

    The failed search for fast victory

    Both Ukraine and Russia have sought rapid victories in the war.

    Russia, based on captured documents, believed that its invasion in 2022 would only take 10 days to result in total Ukrainian capitulation. Ukrainian resolve and the weaknesses of Russian armed forces, however, doomed this effort.

    Ukraine and its supporters, likewise, placed too much hope in a decisive victory in the 2023 summer offensive. But their hopes were quashed by a Russian army that was not only superior to its 2022 iteration and fighting on the defensive, but also by structural weaknesses in the newly constituted Ukrainian units as well.

    The reality of the Russia-Ukraine war is that rapid and decisive victories for either side are impractical. Instead, both Ukraine and Russia are undertaking efforts to win in 2025 and beyond.

    Russian tactical actions

    Ukraine realized it was in an existential fight from the outset of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s focus on a rapid victory in Ukraine, however, meant Russia was unprepared for a protracted conflict.

    Russia, however, adapted to the prolonged war, using the mercenary Wagner Group to stabilize its position in Ukraine. Russia’s efforts to find soldiers for the war effort included giving the Wagner Group the green light to recruit from Russian prisons.



    Read more:
    Russians flee the draft as the reality of the war in Ukraine hits home

    These efforts, however, were more akin to patching holes in the Russian war effort than addressing its underlying issues. In September 2022, Putin announced a partial mobilization of Russian reservists, totalling 300,000 additional soldiers.

    A Russian recruit and his wife kiss and hug each other outside a military recruitment centre in Volgograd, Russia, in September 2022.
    (AP Photo)

    This mobilization and subsequent recruitment efforts gave Russia the personnel advantages it had at the beginning of the conflict. The reinforcements have allowed Russia to resume grinding offensive operations in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Notably, Russian forces are now nearing the strategic city of Pokrovsk.

    Economic sanctions have affected Russia’s ability to produce high-end weapons. Nevertheless, it’s still able to acquire arms at scale from its domestic arms industry as well as from countries like Iran and North Korea.

    Combined with Russia’s diplomatic offensive in Africa, Putin is not as isolated as western countries commonly believe.

    Ukrainian morale

    The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition, and most analyses have assumed that type of war plays to Russia’s advantage given its material superiority. A factor neglected by many analysts in wars of attrition, however, is the importance of morale.

    The Ukrainian government and armed forces have not neglected this crucial point. The recent and ongoing drone strikes help to boost declining Ukrainian morale as the war takes it toll and as hopes of a rapid conclusion have faded, both among Ukrainians themselves and their allies.

    Ukrainian efforts over the summer should be viewed through this morale lens. When doing so, it also becomes evident that Ukraine is fighting the long war versus seeking decisive victories.

    None of Ukraine’s major efforts over the summer, when viewed in isolation, have a serious chance of changing the war in a significant manner. The Ukrainian army’s occupation of parts of the Kursk region this summer brought the conflict to Russian territory. The amount of territory taken by Ukraine, however, is negligible.

    Each operation improves Ukraine’s ability to fight a protracted war, however, while simultaneously undermining Russia’s material and moral resources. They also boost the country’s morale while humiliating Putin at the same time.

    Long-term vision

    Russia staked considerable political capital and material benefits in acquiring support in Africa through the Wagner Group.

    Ukrainian special operation forces efforts in Africa against the Wagner Group undermine Russia’s ability to acquire diplomatic support and other resources.



    Read more:
    Ukrainian special operations abroad are part of its broader war effort against Russia

    Ukraine’s drone strikes will not alter Russian military supplies in a permanent way. But the strikes, using domestically produced drones, creates pressure on Ukraine’s allies to allow western weapons to be used with potentially greater effect.

    The daily news cycle focuses on the importance of individual acts. In assessing how the conflict is developing, however, it’s important to understand how these acts, ranging from drone strikes to ground offensives, are connected to an overall strategy. Each is designed to improve Ukraine’s position while undermining Russia’s during a protracted war.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine drone strikes demonstrate its continuing intent to fight the long war against Russia – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-drone-strikes-demonstrate-its-continuing-intent-to-fight-the-long-war-against-russia-239438

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: UN security council: African countries face hurdles and dangers in getting permanent seats

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Anthoni van Nieuwkerk, Professor of International and Diplomacy Studies, Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs, University of South Africa

    There is growing global consensus among the members of the United Nations that the UN security council, responsible for maintaining international peace and security, requires reform or restructuring to reflect the current balance of forces, and to improve its working methods and ability to do its work.

    There is also growing consensus among members of the African Union that Africa deserves a permanent presence at the council.

    The debate took a new turn on 13 September, when the US announced it would support the creation of two new permanent seats for African countries, and a non-permanent seat for small island developing nations. This came after a pledge in 2022 by the Biden administration to support the expansion of the security council.

    The new permanent seats would come without the power of a veto vote.



    Read more:
    Africa on the UN security council: why the continent should have two permanent seats

    There are several reasons why, in my view, this quest to expand the council is likely to fail. I have followed and published on the South African experience of the UN security council and believe there is need for a sober assessment of what is achievable.

    First, those with permanent seats and veto power (Russia and China, the US, the UK and France) are reluctant to share it, for fear of diluting their own interests and influence.

    Second, if there was agreement on expansion, who would be worthy to fill the extra seats, and how would they be chosen? There are many deserving candidates, from Latin America to Europe and Asia.

    Third, how would Africa go about selecting two of its own to represent the continent on the council?

    Fourth, what would prevent such newcomers from being co-opted by the powerful (in this case, the US) to support or help implement western peace and security agendas at the expense of African and global south agendas?

    To offset the attractiveness and prestige of joining the premier international security club, Africa should be mindful of the entry requirements (namely, diplomatic nous, experience with peacekeeping and the ability to finance such), lest it find itself relegated to serving the security council’s longstanding members.

    Africa would be wise to select and support candidates that have experience, resources and a credible peacebuilding track record on the continent.

    Hurdles and dangers

    It is far from obvious that the continent’s two economic giants, Nigeria and South Africa, should represent Africa. Size counts but doesn’t always translate into attractiveness or credibility at home – a key requirement for a successful role in regional and international affairs.

    The unfortunate reality is that Africa remains divided on the basis of region, language and culture. The continent struggles to speak with one voice on critical matters such as peace and security – the priority of the UN security agenda.

    Under these conditions, a drawn-out and perhaps even unsuccessful process of selecting two out of the 54 members of the African Union is likely.

    In addition, the offer by the west for Africa to take up seats should not be viewed as an act of benevolence. Bringing Africa into the western sphere of influence is a strategic calculation to counter the growing impact of Russia and China on global affairs.

    The emergence of a new world order produces stresses and strains. The west, led by the US, continues to exercise hard power but declining influence, while an assertive alliance of global south states, led by China, is bent on eventually determining international affairs.



    Read more:
    Pan-Africanism remains a dream: four key issues the African Union must tackle

    Prominent members of the global south are enticed or pressured to partner with one or the other power bloc.

    Africa in particular is being courted precisely because of its large voting number (54 countries can swing decisions at multilateral meetings) but more strategically, because it constitutes the reservoir of the world’s future economy. Apart from being blessed with a youthful demographic, Africa can come into central focus due to its unique endowment of green transition minerals like cobalt, lithium and nickel.

    Where to from here?

    If all obstacles are overcome, the chosen countries would have their work cut out for them. Serving – never mind shaping – the UN security council agenda is a demanding, full-time task. The chosen African countries would have to commit significant human and financial resources, peacebuilding capacity and diplomatic leadership skills.

    South Africa is arguably the best placed to meet these criteria and can play a constructive role pushing the African agenda. But it needs to be wary.



    Read more:
    Rating agencies and Africa: the absence of people on the ground contributes to bias against the continent – analyst

    The country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, was quick to respond to the US statement. On the eve of departing for the annual UN general assembly talk show he told the media

    We have been campaigning and the concept has been accepted and of course Africa continues to play through various countries on the continent, important roles, peacekeeping missions not only on our continent but around the world. So, we [have] got the capability, we know how and Africa needs to be given its rightful place in the UN system and its various structures.

    Some critical questions need to be answered by all African leaders first:

    • What are the benefits for an African country taking up a permanent seat on the UN security council?

    • How would it contribute, and what would it receive in return?

    • Would it be able to set agendas and norms, or would it be forced to carry out the tasks of those who allowed it a seat at the table?

    Africa is not unfamiliar with the workings of the United Nations system. It has benefited immensely from UN involvement as it strove for decolonialisation and overcoming the apartheid system. It works closely with the UN as it faces the challenges of underdevelopment, unequal trade, extreme weather and the ongoing exploitation of its human and natural resources.

    It is fitting and ethical for Africa to take up permanent seats at the apex institution and put the security council to work to address Africa’s peace and security challenges.

    To do so, its chosen members must chart an African course of action, supported by the other members of the council.

    Anthoni van Nieuwkerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. UN security council: African countries face hurdles and dangers in getting permanent seats – https://theconversation.com/un-security-council-african-countries-face-hurdles-and-dangers-in-getting-permanent-seats-239642

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Climate change is a pollution problem, and countries know how to deal with pollution threats – think DDT and acid rain

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alexander E. Gates, Professor of Earth and Environmental Science, Rutgers University – Newark

    Adding scrubbers in coal-fired power plants helped reduce acid rain, but they continued to fuel climate change. Drums600 via Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    Climate change can seem like an insurmountable challenge. However, if you look closely at its causes, you’ll realize that history is filled with similar health and environmental threats that humanity has overcome.

    The main cause of climate change – carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels – is really just another pollutant. And countries know how to reduce harmful pollutants. They did it with the pesticide DDT, lead paint and the power plant emissions that were causing acid rain, among many others.

    In each of those cases, growing public outcry eventually led to policy changes, despite pushback from industry. Once pressured by laws and regulations, industries ramped up production of safer solutions.

    I am an earth and environmental scientist, and my latest book, “Reclaiming Our Planet,” explores history’s lessons in overcoming seemingly insurmountable hazards. Here are a few examples:

    Banning DDT despite industry pushback

    DDT was the first truly effective pesticide and considered to be miraculous. By killing mosquitoes and lice, it wiped out malaria and other diseases in many countries, and in agriculture, it saved tons of crops.

    After World War II, DDT was applied to farms, buildings and gardens throughout the United States. However, it also had drawbacks. It accumulated in mother’s milk to levels where it could deliver a toxic dose to infants. Women were advised against nursing their babies in the 1960s because of the danger.

    U.S. bald eagle populations were decimated by DDT. Once the chemical was banned, they began to rebound.
    U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

    In addition, DDT bioaccumulated up the food chain to toxic levels in apex species like raptors. It weakened the eggshells to the point where brooding mothers crushed their eggs. Bald eagles were reduced to 417 breeding pairs across North America by 1967 and were placed on the endangered species list.

    Biologist Rachel Carson documented DDT’s damage in her 1962 book “Silent Spring” and, in doing so, catalyzed a public environmental movement. Despite disinformation campaigns and attacks from the chemical industry, tremendous public pressure on politicians led to congressional hearings, state and federal restrictions and eventually a U.S. ban on the general use of DDT in 1972.

    Rachel Carson, whose book ‘Silent Spring’ led to a study of pesticides, testifies before a Senate committee in Washington on June 4, 1963.
    AP Photo/Charles Gorry

    Bald eagles recovered to 320,000 in the United States by 2017, about equal to populations from before European settlement. The chemical industry, facing a DDT ban, quickly developed much safer pesticides.

    Building evidence of lead’s hazards

    Lead use skyrocketed in the 20th century, particularly in paints, plumbing and gasoline. It was so widespread that just about everyone was exposed to a metal that research now shows can harm the kidneys, liver, cardiovascular system and children’s brain development.

    Clair “Pat” Patterson, a geochemist at the California Institute of Technology, showed that Americans were continuously exposed to lead at near toxic levels. Human skeletons from the 1960s were found to have up to 1,200 times the lead of ancient skeletons. Today, health standards say there’s no safe level of lead in the blood.

    Lead paint was banned for residential use in the U.S. in 1978, but existing lead paint in older homes can still chip, creating a health risk for children today.
    EPA

    Despite threats both personally and professionally and a disinformation campaign from industry, Patterson and his supporters compiled years of evidence to warn the public and eventually pressured politicians to ban lead from many uses, including in gasoline and residential paints.

    Once regulations were in place, industry ramped up production of substitutes. As a result, lead levels in the blood of children decreased by 97% over the next several decades. While lead exposure is less common now, some people are still exposed to dangerous levels lingering in homes, pipes and soil, often in low-income neighborhoods.

    Stopping acid rain: An international problem

    Acid rain is primarily caused when sulfur dioxide, released into the air by the burning of coal, high-sulfur oil and smelting and refining of metals, interacts with rain or fog. The acidic rain that falls can destroy forests, kill lake ecosystems and dissolve statues and corrode infrastructure.

    Acid rain damage across Europe and North America in the 20th century also showed the world how air pollution, which doesn’t stop at borders, can become an international crisis requiring international solutions.

    The problem of acid rain began well over a century ago, but sulfur dioxide levels grew quickly after World War II. A thermal inversion in London in 1952 created such a concentration of sulfur dioxide and other air pollutants that it killed thousands of people. As damage to forests and lakes worsened across Europe, countries signed international agreements starting in the 1980s to cut their sulfur dioxide emissions.

    Trees killed by acid rain in the Czech Republic in 1998. Forests across many parts of Europe and North America suffered from acid rain damage.
    Seitz/ullstein bild via Getty Images

    In the U.S., emissions from Midwestern power plants killed fish and trees in the pristine Adirondacks. The damage, health concerns and multiple disasters outraged the public, and politicians responded.

    Sulfur dioxide was named as one of the six criteria air pollutants in the groundbreaking 1970 U.S. Clean Air Act, which required the federal government to set limits on its release. Power plants installed scrubbers to capture the pollutant, and over the next 40 years, sulfur dioxide concentrations in the U.S. decreased by about 95%.

    Parallels with climate change

    There are many parallels between these examples and climate change today.

    Mountains of scientific evidence show how carbon dixoide emissions from fossil fuel combustion in vehicles, factories and power plants are warming the planet. The fossil fuel industry began using its political power and misinformation campaigns decades ago to block regulations that were designed to slow climate change.

    And people around the world, facing worsening heat and weather disasters fueled by global warming, have been calling for action to stop climate change and invest in cleaner energy.

    The first Earth Day, in 1970, drew 20 million people. Rallies in recent years have shifted the focus to climate change and have drawn millions of people around the world.

    Public campaigns and huge rallies for action on climate change, like this one in New York City in 2023, help put public pressure on politicians.
    Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images

    The challenge has been getting politicians to act, but that is slowly changing in many countries.

    The United States has started investing in scaling up several tools to rein in climate change, including electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels. Federal and state policies, such as requirements for renewable energy production and limits on greenhouse gas emissions, are also crucial for getting industries to switch to less harmful alternatives.

    Climate change is a global problem that will require efforts worldwide. International agreements are also helping more countries take steps forward. One shift that has been discussed by countries for years could help boost those efforts: Ending the billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded fossil fuel subsidies and shifting that money to healthier solutions could help move the needle toward slowing climate change.

    Alexander E. Gates is affiliated with The Newark Green Team.

    – ref. Climate change is a pollution problem, and countries know how to deal with pollution threats – think DDT and acid rain – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-a-pollution-problem-and-countries-know-how-to-deal-with-pollution-threats-think-ddt-and-acid-rain-236479

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can you trust companies that say their plastic products are recyclable? US regulators may crack down on deceptive claims

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Patrick Parenteau, Professor of Law Emeritus, Vermont Law & Graduate School

    Keurig, maker of K-Cup single-use coffee pods, was recently fined for claiming the pods were recyclable. Dixie D. Vereen/For The Washington Post, via Getty Images

    Plastic is a fast-growing segment of U.S. municipal solid waste, and most of it ends up in the environment. Just 9% of plastic collected in municipal solid waste was recycled as of 2018, the most recent year for which national data is available. The rest was burned in waste-to-energy plants or buried in landfills.

    Manufacturers assert that better recycling is the optimal way to reduce plastic pollution. But critics argue that the industry often exaggerates how readily items can actually be recycled. In September 2024, beverage company Keurig Dr Pepper was fined US$1.5 million for inaccurately claiming that its K-Cup coffee pods were recyclable after two large recycling companies said they could not process the cups. California is suing ExxonMobil, accusing the company of falsely promoting plastic products as recyclable.

    Environmental law scholar Patrick Parenteau explains why claims about recyclability have confused consumers, and how forthcoming guidelines from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission may address this problem.

    Why do manufacturers need guidance on what ‘recyclable’ means?

    Stating that a product is recyclable means that it can be collected, separated or otherwise recovered from the waste stream for reuse or in the manufacture of other products. But defining exactly what that means is difficult for several reasons:

    • Different U.S. states have different recycling regulations and guidelines, which can affect what is considered recyclable in a given location.

    • The availability and quality of recycling infrastructure also varies from place to place. Even if a product technically is recyclable, a local recycling facility may not be able to accept it because its equipment can’t process it.

    • If no market demand for the recycled material exists, recycling companies may be unlikely to accept it.

    Most plastic goods that consumers put in their recycle bins aren’t recycled, despite the “chasing arrow” label. Critics say manufacturers have deceived the public to avert plastic bans.

    What is the Federal Trade Commission’s role?

    Public concern about plastic pollution has skyrocketed in recent years. A 2020 survey found that globally, 91% of consumers were concerned about plastic waste.

    Once plastic enters the environment, it can take 1,000 years or more to decompose, depending on environmental conditions. Exposure through ingestion, inhalation or in drinking water poses potential risks to human health and wildlife.

    The Federal Trade Commission’s role is to protect the public from deceptive or unfair business practices and unfair methods of competition. Every year, it brings hundreds of cases against individuals and companies for violating consumer protection and competition laws. These cases can involve fraud, scams, identity theft, false advertising, privacy violations, anticompetitive behavior and more.

    The FTC publishes references called the Green Guides, which are designed to help marketers avoid making environmental claims that mislead consumers. The guides were first issued in 1992 and were revised in 1996, 1998 and 2012. While the guides themselves are not enforceable, the commission can use them to prove that a claim is deceptive, in violation of federal law.

    The guidance they provide includes:

    • General principles that apply to all environmental marketing claims

    • How consumers are likely to interpret claims, and how marketers can substantiate these claims

    • How marketers can qualify their claims to avoid deceiving consumers

    The agency monitors environmentally themed marketing for potentially deceptive claims and evaluates compliance with the FTC Act of 1914 by reference to the Green Guides. Marketing inconsistent with the Green Guides may be considered unfair or deceptive under Section 5 of the FTC Act.

    Courts also refer to the Green Guides when they evaluate claims for false advertising in private litigation.

    Currently, the Green Guides state that marketers should qualify claims that products are recyclable when recycling facilities are not available to at least 60% of consumers or communities where a product is sold.

    How is the agency addressing recyclability claims?

    The FTC is reviewing the Green Guides and issued a request for public comment on the guides in late 2022. In May 2023, the agency convened a workshop called Talking Trash at the FTC: Recycling Claims and the Green Guides.

    This meeting focused on the 60% processing threshold for recyclability claims. It also addressed potential confusion created by the “chasing arrows” recycling symbol, which often identifies the type of plastic resin used in a product, using the numbers 1 through 7.

    Many critics argue that consumers may see the symbol and assume that a product is recyclable, even though municipal recycling programs are not widely available for some types of resins. Other labels use a version of the symbol for products such as single-use grocery bags that aren’t accepted in most curbside recycling programs but can be dropped off at designated stores for recycling.

    The FTC has sought public comments on specific characteristics that make products recyclable. It also has asked whether unqualified recyclability claims should be made when recycling facilities are available to a “substantial majority” of consumers or communities where the item is sold – even if the item is not ultimately recycled due to market demand, budgetary constraints or other factors.

    What are companies and environmental advocates saying?

    Organizations representing environmental interests, recycling businesses and the waste and packaging industries have offered numerous suggestions for updating the Green Guides. For example:

    • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency urged the FTC to increase its threshold for recyclability claims beyond the current 60% rate. The EPA said that products and packaging “should not be considered recyclable without strong end markets in which they can reliably be sold for a price higher than the cost of disposal.” It also recommended requiring companies’ recyclability claims to be reviewed and certified by outside experts.

    • The Consumer Brands Association, which represents the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Plastics Industry Association and other commercial interests, called for more research into public understanding of environmental marketing claims. To help companies avoid making deceptive advertising claims, it urged the FTC to provide more detailed explanations, with examples of acceptable marketing.

    • The Association of Plastic Recyclers encouraged the FTC to increase enforcement against deceptive unqualified claims of both recyclability and recycled content. It recommended providing stronger, more prescriptive guidance; publicizing specific examples from the marketplace of deceptive representations; and sending warning letters when companies appear to be making unsubstantiated claims. It also asked the FTC to maintain its current recyclability claim threshold at 60% and to update the Green Guides again within five years instead of 10.

    • A coalition of environmental groups, including Greenpeace USA and the Center for Biological Diversity, urged the commission to codify the Green Guides into binding rules. They also argued that for goods that require in-store drop-off, companies should have to prove that processors can capture and recycle at least 75% of the material.

    The FTC has not set a date for publishing a final version of the revised Green Guides. All eyes will be on the agency to see how far it is willing to go to police recycling claims by manufacturers in this $90 billion U.S. industry.

    Patrick Parenteau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can you trust companies that say their plastic products are recyclable? US regulators may crack down on deceptive claims – https://theconversation.com/can-you-trust-companies-that-say-their-plastic-products-are-recyclable-us-regulators-may-crack-down-on-deceptive-claims-239156

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: After recent attacks, the Hezbollah-Israel confrontation could become more intense

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Emilie El Khoury, Postdoctoral fellow at Queen’s University’s Centre for International Policy and Defence (CIDP), Queen’s University, Ontario

    The violent conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has intensified in recent days. Reports from Lebanon indicate Israeli air strikes have killed 356 people and injured more than 1,200.

    These latest air strikes come shortly after thousands of pagers and other electronic devices exploded across Lebanon on Sept. 17 and 18, killing 37 people and injuring thousands.

    Hezbollah quickly laid the blame for the explosions on Israel, which has not taken credit for the attack. Volker Turk, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, said international humanitarian law prohibits the use of booby-trapped devices and that “it is a war crime to commit violence intended to spread terror among civilians.”

    Days later, Israel bombed a building in Beirut, killing 45 people, including a Hezbollah commander.

    Israeli officials have reportedly said their recent attacks on Lebanon are an attempt to reach “de-escalation through escalation.” However, in response, Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets deep into Israel, signalling that Israeli attempts at de-escalatory escalation are unlikely to work.

    In a speech following the pager explosions, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Israel had “crossed all red lines,” that the group remained resolved and that it would continue its attacks on Israel.

    Psychological warfare

    Since the current Hamas-Israel war began in October 2023, the violent exchanges between Hezbollah and the Israeli military have been based on a logic of deterrence, with each side attempting to discourage the other from widening the conflict.

    However, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently said the focus of Israel’s war effort is moving to the north of the country and that Israel plans to deepen its attacks on Lebanon.

    Israeli President Isaac Herzog has claimed Hezbollah hides rockets in civilian homes, suggesting they could become targets. Meanwhile, the Israeli education minister has called for “a massive war against Lebanon.” He has also declared: “There is no difference between Hezbollah and Lebanon. The way things are progressing, Lebanon will be annihilated.”

    Such comments, along with the attacks on Lebanon, indicate the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel may become more intense in the coming weeks and months. They also exacerbate the level of terror among civilian populations already grappling with the uncertainty and stress the war has wrought.

    While Israel has not confirmed it was behind the pager explosions, Israeli jets regularly fly over Lebanon, causing sonic booms as they break the sound barrier. This is a tactic designed to spread fear among the civilian population.

    Israel has adopted a similar tactic in Gaza, using drones that produce a loud constant buzzing sound that causes anxiety and a sense of insecurity.

    These displays allow Israel to demonstrate the strength of its military capabilities. In this context, Israel is intensifying its attacks across Lebanon to erode the morale of the Lebanese people.

    What is terrorism?

    The explosions across Lebanon instilled deep terror among the population. Among the injured and killed were innocent civilians, including children.

    This raises the question: Do indiscriminate attacks that spread fear among civilian populations qualify as terrorist if they possess all the characteristics of terrorism but lack a specific objective or motivation given that no one has claimed any?

    Politics scholars have attempted to come up with definitions of terrorism. Some argue any action that generates terror or panic and aims to destabilize society can be considered a terrorist act.

    However, the lack of a clear claim complicates this classification. These acts seem more akin to criminal acts, as the political or ideological motivations are not formally established.

    The concept of terrorism originated during the French Revolution, particularly during the Reign of Terror, a violent period marked by the execution of tens of thousands by revolutionary governments.

    In response to state terror, groups identifying as revolutionaries emerged, employing similar tactics to resist their authorities, and these groups were seen as terrorists.

    Since then, terrorism has been viewed as a form of violent communication directed at a state, using lethal means to instil fear and achieve specific ideological or political goals.

    In 1979, the United States government began designating certain countries as “state sponsors of terrorism,” with Iran notably implicated in supporting such activities following the Iranian Revolution.

    Today, the question of whether states employ tactics akin to terrorism is complex and widely debated. Anti-terrorism strategies typically aim to protect nations from immediate threats, while counterinsurgency focuses on stabilizing and supporting existing governments.

    But violent counterinsurgency raises ethical dilemmas. It can perpetuate cycles of violence, cause more terror and reinforce rebellion among affected populations.

    Do such attacks work?

    If the goal is to spread fear, then these attacks are successful. The explosions triggered scenes of panic in public places as shops, restaurants, schools and hospitals became sites of terror.

    However, if — as the Israeli government has suggested — the attacks seek to weaken Hezbollah’s support among the Lebanese population, they can have the opposite effect. Although many Lebanese people have been critical of Hezbollah’s involvement in the conflict, these recent attacks are perceived as targeted against all Lebanese.

    Many innocent civilians were killed or injured, including women, children and health-care workers. People from all walks of life felt a palpable threat, giving rise to unprecedented solidarity.

    From an anthropological perspective, Israel’s latest attacks have galvanized a greater sense of solidarity within the Lebanese population. Following the attacks, calls for blood donations poured in, while various political parties and religious groups expressed support for the victims.

    For Hezbollah, these attacks, despite the significant human losses, can bolster it politically. They reinforce its narrative of martyrdom and portray the group as a defender of Lebanon to its supporters.

    The cross-border attacks by Israel and Hezbollah are in part designed to pressure the civilian populations, and in turn, the opposing side. However, this psychological war has not yielded the expected results for either side. Thousands of civilians on both sides of the border have had to flee their homes. However, neither side has seemingly been deterred.

    As the attacks become more deadly and rhetoric more inflammatory, there is an urgent need to de-escalate tensions, abandon this violent approach and return to diplomacy.

    Emilie El Khoury receives funding for her postdoctoral research at Queen’s University from Queen’s Research Opportunities Postdoctoral Fund.

    – ref. After recent attacks, the Hezbollah-Israel confrontation could become more intense – https://theconversation.com/after-recent-attacks-the-hezbollah-israel-confrontation-could-become-more-intense-239554

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Meta’s AI-powered smart glasses raise concerns about privacy and user data

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Victoria (Vicky) McArthur, Associate Professor, School of Journalism and Communication, Carleton University

    Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses are just one of many wearable tech devices on the market. The glasses, which first launched in 2021, are a collaboration between Meta and Italian-French eyewear company EssilorLuxottica, which owns Ray-Ban among many other brands.

    The smart glasses feature two small cameras, open-ear speakers, a microphone and a touch panel built into the temple of the glasses. To access these features, users must pair them to their mobile phone using the Meta View app. Users can take photos or videos with the camera, listen to music from their phone and livestream to Meta’s social media platforms.

    Users can operate the glasses using spoken commands or the built-in Meta AI assistant, which responds to prompts like “hey Meta.” For example, users can say, “hey Meta, look and…” followed by questions about their surroundings.

    To take a photo or video, users press and hold a button on the frame, which activates an LED in the front of the glasses. The LED signals to others that the camera is actively capturing a photo or video. If the LED is covered, the camera won’t work and the user will be prompted by the Meta AI assistant to uncover it.

    Although the LED helps to signal that the camera is in operation, the relatively small size of the LED garnered criticism from privacy regulators in Europe.

    Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses on display in Cremona, Italy, on July 29, 2024.
    (Shutterstock)

    Data privacy concerns

    As a company that makes nearly all of its money from advertising, there have been concerns raised about how images captured with the glasses will be used by the company.

    Meta has a long history of privacy concerns. When it comes to user data, folks are rightly concerned about how their images — potentially captured without their consent — might be used by the company.

    The Meta smart glasses add another layer to this debate by introducing AI into the equation. AI has already prompted numerous debates and criticism about how easy it is to decieve, how confidently it gives incorrect information and how racially biased it can be.



    Read more:
    AI technologies — like police facial recognition — discriminate against people of colour

    When users take photos or videos with the smart glasses, they are sent to Meta’s cloud to be processed via AI. According to Meta’s own website, “all photos processed with AI are stored and used to improve Meta products, and will be used to train Meta’s AI with help from trained reviewers.”

    Meta states this processing includes the analysis of objects, text and other contents of photos, and that any information “will be collected, used and retained in accordance with Meta’s Privacy Policy.” In other words, images uploaded to the cloud will be used to train Meta’s AI.

    Leaving it up to users

    The ubiquity of portable digital cameras, including wearable ones, has had a significant impact on how we document our lives while also reigniting legal and ethical debates around privacy and surveillance.

    In many Canadian jurisdictions, people can be photographed in a public place without their consent, unless there is a reasonable expectation of privacy. However, restrictions apply if the images are used for commercial purposes or in a way that could cause harm or distress. There are exceptions for journalistic purposes or matters of public interest, but these can be nuanced.

    Meta has published a set of best practices to encourage users to be mindful of the rights of others when wearing the glasses. These guidelines suggest formally announcing when you plan to use the camera or livestream, and turning the device off when entering private spaces, such as a doctor’s office or public washrooms.

    As someone who owns a pair, I can ask my Ray-Ban Meta glasses to comment on what I can see and it will describe buildings, translate signs and accurately guess the species of my mixed-breed dog, but will let me know that it is not allowed to tell me anything about people whenever a person appears in frame.

    What remains unclear is the issue of bystander consent and how people who appear unintentionally in the background of someone else’s photos will be used by Meta for AI training purposes. As AI capabilities evolve and these technologies become more widespread, these concerns are likely to grow.

    Meta’s reliance on user behaviour to uphold privacy norms may not be sufficient to address the complex questions surrounding consent, surveillance and data exploitation. Given the company’s track record with privacy concerns and its data-driven business model, it’s fair to question whether the current safeguards are enough to protect privacy in our increasingly digitized world still.

    Victoria (Vicky) McArthur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Meta’s AI-powered smart glasses raise concerns about privacy and user data – https://theconversation.com/metas-ai-powered-smart-glasses-raise-concerns-about-privacy-and-user-data-238191

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why virtual reality nature can’t provide the same wellness benefits as the real thing

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Savannah Stuart, PhD Candidate in Social and Ecological Sustainability, University of Waterloo

    VR headsets let users explore natural settings like beaches, greenery and oceans, choosing the time of day and the weather. (Shutterstock)

    As nature connection researchers, we’re aware of the innumerable benefits of spending time outside in nature. We’re also aware that, like so many other interactions, immersing oneself in nature is an experience that is now available virtually. In fact, virtual reality (VR) companies now promote VR nature as tools for corporate wellness.

    Some universities have also added VR to staff or student services. When we learned that our staff association at University of Waterloo was offering a new wellness initiative linked to nature, our excitement faded upon realizing the initiative wasn’t about real nature — such as encouraging staff members to take regular breaks to sit by the stream on campus, or to walk around nearby Columbia Lake — but VR nature.

    Headsets would be available for use in libraries pre-loaded with the Nature Treks VR app, which lets users explore natural settings like beaches, greenery and oceans, choosing the time of day and the weather.

    Waterloo is not the first institution to turn to such tools to support well-being. The McGill Student Wellness Hub similarly offers VR sessions with “Mindful Escapes,” an app in which users can “embark on virtual journeys to serene landscapes, calming forests, ocean depths or mountain adventures.”

    VR nature appears to be a wellness trend.

    Technological nature

    Virtual reality companies now promote VR nature as a tool for corporate wellness.
    (Shutterstock)

    We’re skeptical that VR nature will enable the diverse benefits that real nature offers. What might be the consequences of such “technological nature” — nature mediated and augmented by a technological interface?

    Peter H. Kahn of the University of Washington, who has done foundational work in this field, concludes from a multitude of studies that:

    “in terms of human well-being, technological nature is better than no nature, but not as good as actual nature.”

    Turning to technology such as VR headsets for nature immersion contributes to what one expert in environmental psychology, Susan Clayton, calls a transformation of experience. First, VR allows the user to control and therefore optimize and homogenize their nature experience, perhaps selecting only glorious weather and the most sensational or pristine wilderness. Technologically optimized depictions of nature “may lead people to be less interested in, or satisfied by, messy, unexciting, local ecosystems.”

    Might VR headsets diminish users’ appreciation of immersive and restorative nature experiences that can be found in their local greenspace?

    Sensory immersion

    The disparities in benefits between the virtual and real nature experiences raise a big question: Why are wellness initiatives investing in these new tech tools rather than hands-on experiences that prioritize sensory immersion?
    (Shutterstock)

    Second, VR headsets fail to provide the sensory immersion and embodiment of actual nature. Sensory inputs such as smell, sound, touch and sight are all intertwined in the complex relationship between nature immersion and well-being, but VR headsets remove the sensuality of nature experiences.

    For example, stimulating one’s sense of touch can lead to increased psychological restoration and numerous tree species produce chemical compounds that have psychological and physiological benefits. The rapidly growing area of research on the microbiome-brain connection stresses the importance of encountering beneficial bacteria through contact with soil, something that a VR headset cannot replicate.

    And finally, a recurrent issue with VR headset use is the onset of “cybersickness,” nausea that appears to be exacerbated by walking or movement. This may make users of VR headsets wary of moving while wearing the headset, which is another disadvantage compared to being outside free of one.

    In addition to losing these facets of experience in nature, another factor we wonder about is the evidence base for purchasing these devices. The study cited in the University of Waterloo announcement, which specifically evaluates the efficacy of Nature Treks VR for wellness, lacked a control group and had a small sample size. The study authors state that due to their lack of a control group, “a causal relationship between the VR experience and participants’ mood could not be established.”

    More research on the contrast between VR and real nature for well-being must be undertaken to rigorously compare the two.

    Access and equity issues

    VR nature experiences may appeal to those who did not grow up with opportunities to have immersive experiences in nature and thus don’t feel entirely comfortable there. They may also appeal to those who have accessibility limitations.

    However, defaulting to VR could contribute to the existing inequity in access to the benefits of real nature immersion. It may make it easier to turn to technological nature experiences rather than developing accessible nature programming.



    Read more:
    How cities can avoid ‘green gentrification’ and make urban forests accessible

    The disparities in benefits between the virtual and real nature experiences raise a big question: why are wellness initiatives investing in these new tech tools rather than hands-on experiences that prioritize sensory immersion?

    Funding opportunities often seem to favour the new “techno-fix” that offers a streamlined and simple solution. But the introduction of such tools necessitates reflection on values of workplace wellness. Is the goal to attain wellness as efficiently as possible, instead of aspiring to the most effective modalities?

    Rather than donning headsets, we encourage people to engage in simple outdoor activities to cultivate a deeper connection with nature. There’s a lot to be said for making use of whatever green space you have access to: go outside, slow down and, if possible, smell the proverbial roses.

    Savannah Stuart receives funding from OGS.

    Brendon Larson receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

    Steffanie Scott receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

    – ref. Why virtual reality nature can’t provide the same wellness benefits as the real thing – https://theconversation.com/why-virtual-reality-nature-cant-provide-the-same-wellness-benefits-as-the-real-thing-234124

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AfD: how Germany’s constitution was designed with the threat of extremism in mind

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Green, Professor of Politics, Aston University

    German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD has narrowly held off the rightwing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in regional elections in Brandenburg, nudging them into second place.

    The close call follows two other recent elections in Germany’s eastern federal states (Länder). In Thuringia, the AfD won the highest share of the votes. In Saxony, the AfD narrowly came second to the centre-right CDU. Importantly, the regional AfD organisations in both Saxony and Thuringia, along with Saxony-Anhalt, have officially been designated as extreme right. This means that the party in these states is formally considered by Germany’s domestic security service to be a threat to the country’s democratic constitutional order.

    Although the country’s proportional electoral system means that the AfD cannot form a government in any of the three states by itself, this is the first time since 1945 that an officially extremist party has won an election in Germany.

    It’s not unreasonable for those outside Germany to questions whether these election results show that the country once more stands on the cusp of a slide into fascism, as it did in the 1930s. However, quite apart from the fact that 2024 is not the same as 1933, there is one important structural difference: Germany’s constitution (the Grundgesetz or Basic Law). This was explicitly designed to prevent a recurrence of a totalitarian regime such as national socialism.

    The Basic Law dates back to 1949 – a time when the country was in the process of splitting into west and east. Coming into force during this period of transition, the document was only a provisional constitution. Yet the Basic Law has outlasted any of the previous three state forms since Germany was first unified in 1871. Today, it enjoys widespread popular support: a recent survey showed 81% of the population view it positively.

    In its content, the Basic Law is a living testimony to Germany’s desire to prevent a return to National Socialism. In articles 1-19, it enshrines a comprehensive catalogue of fundamental rights, which cannot be removed from the constitution. These include the right to dignity, freedom, privacy, free assembly, freedom of the press and to political asylum.

    The Basic Law also established one of the most powerful independent constitutional courts in the world. The court even has the right to ban political parties, or to limit the fundamental rights of individuals who are found to be undermining the constitutional order, as had been in the case in Weimar Germany. For this reason, Germany is considered to be a militant democracy. While the outright banning of parties is fraught with political difficulties (and hence rare historically), there is a live debate over whether the AfD’s policies and rhetoric are ultimately compatible with Germany’s constitution.

    More subtly, Germany’s governance structures are designed to make it practically impossible for a hostile grouping to seize power democratically. The German chancellor has much less power than, say, the British prime minister. In particular, the structures of federalism and coalition government further constrain the room for manoeuvre of any individual politician or indeed any single political party.

    The Grundrechte is inscribed on a wall in Berlin for all to see.
    Jakob-Kaiser-Haus/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA

    Major functions of policy implementation are delegated to powerful societal actors, such as professional bodies. These are geographically distributed around the country, along with the media, key corporate headquarters and the unions. The ability of Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, to set monetary policy independent of political control, itself a response to the hyperinflation of the early 1920s, has made it a model for both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England today.

    In short, and in the words of the German-American political scientist Peter Katzenstein, the German state is only “semisovereign”.

    In consequence, the Basic Law is not just a document setting out the political “rules of the game”, but an expression of Germany’s values. Its longevity has benefited from the willingness of political elites down the years to adapt its provisions, where necessary, to changing circumstances. And in several respects, the past remains very much the present in German politics. For instance, the right to privacy, which was originally included to prevent the reoccurrence of Nazi Germany’s pervasive surveillance, is given new meaning in an age of global digital connectivity.

    Pressures ahead

    Certainly, Germany today faces multiple challenges. As society has evolved, Germany’s party system has fragmented, with more parties securing seats in the national parliament, the Bundestag. Of these, the AfD has been by far the most successful, and could potentially become the second largest party at the next parliamentary elections in 2025. This fragementation, which is not unique to Germany, has made the formation of coalition governments harder. Fortunately, this has so far not led to out-of-cycle national elections, of the kind which plagued the latter years of the Weimar Republic.

    And there are concerns beyond politics. From the “economic miracle” in the 1950s, Germany’s growth has slowed significantly, averaging just 1.2% per year between 2012-2022; in the last two years, the economy has barely grown at all. Compared to other advanced economies, it remains disproportionately reliant on exporting high added value manufactured goods.

    The reunification of Germany in 1990 also continues to cast a long shadow. In any number of economic and social indicators, including household incomes, religion and childcare patterns, eastern Germany remains structurally different to western Germany. Across the country, the population is ageing and, without substantial net migration over time, will decline over the next 30 years. Yet immigration also remains one of the biggest political issues of the day, and a key driver of the AfD’s electoral success.

    Nonetheless, given Germany’s difficult journey to statehood in the 19th and early 20th centuries, the Basic Law remains a strong guarantor of Germany’s democratic credentials. For this reason, former federal president Joachim Gauck was surely right to declare earlier this year that the Germany created by the Basic Law is “the best that ever existed”.

    Simon Green does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AfD: how Germany’s constitution was designed with the threat of extremism in mind – https://theconversation.com/afd-how-germanys-constitution-was-designed-with-the-threat-of-extremism-in-mind-230594

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –