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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: Preventing urinary tract infections after menopause: What every woman should know

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Erin A. Brennand, Gynecologist & Associate Professor, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary

    There is more information available about urinary tract infections today than ever before. (Shutterstock)

    After menopause, urinary tract infections (UTIs) can be more frequent, yet most Canadian women (82 per cent in a recent survey) don’t realize the two are associated.

    At the Sex, Gender and Women’s Health Research Hub, our team’s advocacy aims to increase awareness and highlight proven strategies to help prevent UTIs for women later in life.

    Why are UTIs more common after menopause?

    The main culprit for increased UTIs in menopausal women is the drop in estrogen levels. Estrogen plays a crucial role in maintaining urinary tract tissue health.

    As estrogen declines, the lining of the urethra — the tube through which urine flows out of the body — becomes thinner and more fragile. Also, there are fewer infection-fighting blood cells in the urinary tract, and mucosal immunity — the specialized immune defences present at the mucosal surfaces lining the urinary tract that include physical and chemical barriers, cellular receptors and antibodies — is reduced.

    This weakens the local immune response, making it easier for bacteria to cause infections. Additionally, changes in vaginal flora — the bacteria that naturally protect against infections — results in the urinary tract being vulnerable.

    Knowledge is power during menopause.
    Servier Medical Art, CC BY

    Other factors can contribute to UTI risk at this stage of life, too. Women whose bladder muscles have weakened with age, or who have developed pelvic organ prolapse, can experience incomplete bladder emptying. This leads to urine retention and an increased chance of bacterial growth.



    Read more:
    Women having surgery to treat pelvic organ prolapse don’t always need a hysterectomy

    Similarly, if women experience urinary incontinence, the leakage and moisture on incontinence pads or underwear can create an environment where bacteria thrive. And while sexual activity itself does not directly cause UTIs, it can introduce bacteria into the urinary tract, increasing the risk of infection.

    Signs of a UTI

    Bacteria in the urine without symptoms is called asymptomatic bacteriuria. It is not a UTI and should not be treated; a UTI is only diagnosed when bacteria and symptoms are both present. The most obvious symptoms include:

    • A new, strong, persistent urge to urinate;
    • A burning sensation while urinating;
    • Frequent urination in small amounts;
    • Pelvic discomfort or pressure.

    In severe cases, UTIs can lead to kidney infections, so when symptoms include fever, chills and back pain, it is essential to seek immediate medical attention.

    For women in their 80s or older, or sometimes younger women who are living with medical conditions such as dementia, urinary tract infections can manifest as behavioural changes such as confusion, withdrawal or reduced appetite. However, new onset delirium should always be investigated by a medical team rather than assumed to be a UTI.

    Evidence-based strategies to prevent UTIs

    Several medical and lifestyle interventions can make a significant difference:

    1. Vaginal estrogen therapy

    One of the most effective ways to prevent recurrent UTIs in postmenopausal women is vaginal estrogen therapy, which delivers small doses of estrogen directly to the vaginal tissues through creams, tablets or rings. Studies have shown that vaginal estrogen can restore the natural protective barrier of the urinary tract, reducing UTI risk significantly. It can be used by breast cancer survivors as it does not have the same risks associated with menopause hormone therapy (MHT).

    2. Non-antibiotic prevention

    Methenamine hippurate (one gram orally, twice-a-day) is effective in reducing UTIs by creating an environment that prevents bacterial growth. In Canada, women need to obtain this medication from a compounding pharmacy.

    3. Low-dose antibiotic
    Doctors may prescribe low-dose antibiotics – about half the standard dose – for several months. If sexual activity is a trigger for UTIs, antibiotics can be used episodically after sex. However, antibiotics can cause side-effects and create antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
    4. Diet supplements
    Scientific evidence on consuming cranberry-based products to prevent UTIs is mixed. Some studies suggest that certain compounds in cranberries (proanthocyanidins, or PACs) prevent bacteria from adhering to the bladder lining, while others show no benefit. If trying these products, women should choose brands with high concentrations of PACs, the active ingredient.

    Similarly, probiotics, especially those containing Lactobacillus strains, may help maintain a healthy vaginal microbiome, which in turn can lower UTI risk. However, research is still evolving.

    5. Hygiene and lifestyle habits
    Though there is limited evidence, simple everyday habits may help in preventing UTIs:

    • Staying hydrated – Drinking water helps to flush bacteria from the urinary tract. For women who drink a low volume of fluids each day (less than 1.5 litres), increasing water intake may help.
    • Urinating regularly – Avoid holding urine for long periods and aim to void every three to four hours during the day.
    • Urinating after sex – This helps clear bacteria introduced during intercourse.
    • Choosing breathable underwear – Cotton underwear and loose-fitting clothes reduce build up of moisture, which in turn reduces bacterial growth.

    More innovations on the horizon

    Vaccines are one of the most promising developments for preventing recurrent UTIs. In one early trial, overall recurrences decreased by 75 per cent for women given an oral vaccine, with no major side-effects reported.

    Trials are currently under way in Canada, and researchers hope vaccines will provide a more effective and long-term solution.

    Treatment and support for UTIs.
    People illustrations by Storyset, CC BY

    When to see a doctor

    Any woman who is experiencing frequent UTIs — defined as two infections in six months or three in a year — in menopause should talk to their doctor or primary care provider. Together, they can determine the best preventive targeted strategies.

    Knowledge is power, and there is more information available today than ever before. UTIs are not an inevitable part of aging. With the right combination of medical treatments and lifestyle changes, women can reduce postmenopausal risk.

    Erin A. Brennand receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, the Calgary Health Foundation, and the MSI Foundation (all paid to institution).

    Jayna Holroyd-Leduc has received funding from CIHR and Alberta Innovates. She holds the BSF Chair in Geriatric Medicine at the University of Calgary.

    Pauline McDonagh Hull does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Preventing urinary tract infections after menopause: What every woman should know – https://theconversation.com/preventing-urinary-tract-infections-after-menopause-what-every-woman-should-know-255762

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Blind box toys are booming: Are they just child’s play or something more concerning?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Eugene Y. Chan, Associate Professor of Marketing, Toronto Metropolitan University

    Collectible figurines on display at Pop Mart in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine, on April 29, 2025. (Shutterstock)

    If you’ve seen videos of people tearing into tiny toy packages online, or noticed teens obsessing over pastel-coloured figurines at the mall, you’ve probably encountered the global craze for blind box toys.

    These small collectibles — usually figures of cartoonish characters — are sold in sealed packaging that hides which specific item is inside. You might get the one you want, or you might not. That uncertainty is part of the thrill.

    Unlike traditional toys, these figures are marketed as collectibles. Many are part of themed series, with some designs labelled as “rare” or “secret,” appearing in as few as one in every 144 boxes. This sense of exclusivity fuels repeat purchases and has spawned a resale market where rare figures can command hundreds of dollars.

    Popular among children and adults alike, blind box toys have grown into a billion-dollar industry. One of the more popular brands is Pop Mart, a Chinese toy company founded in 2010 known for its collectible designer toys sold in mystery packs.

    Gen Z consumers, in particular, have embraced blind box toys both as a nostalgic pastime and as a form of legitimate collecting. The proliferation of unboxing videos on platforms like TikTok and YouTube, where creators open dozens of blind boxes on camera, has added to their appeal.

    For many fans, these toys offer more than just cuteness: they also provide suspense, surprise and a rush of dopamine with every box opened. But how did this niche product become a global obsession?

    From Tokyo streets to western malls

    The origins of blind box toys trace back to East Asia. Capsule toy vending machines called gashapon originated in Japan in the 1960s. By the 1980s, they had become a cultural fixture. These machines dispense small toys in opaque plastic balls, with customers never quite sure which item they’ll receive.

    In the early 2010s, Chinese companies like Pop Mart adapted the gashapon model for the mainstream retail space. Instead of vending machines, they began selling artist-designed vinyl toys in blind boxes at dedicated boutiques.

    A tourist uses a gashapon machine in Osaka, Japan, in 2024. Gashapon machines are similar to the coin-operated toy vending machines seen outside grocery stores and other retailers in North America.
    (Shutterstock)

    Pop Mart’s success helped transform the blind box into a mainstream commercial phenomenon. Characters like Molly, Skullpanda and Dimoo became instant hits, combining Japanese kawaii esthetics with western pop art sensibilities.

    Pop Mart figures have since developed a cult-like following. Many consumers treat the toys as affordable art objects, displayed in cabinets, on purses or traded online.

    Today, blind box retail stores have expanded globally from Asia to Europe and North America. In October 2024, Pop Mart opened its first store in the Midwestern United States, located on Chicago’s Magnificent Mile at The Shops at North Bridge. The store offers exclusive products and taps into the growing demand for collectibles among American consumers.

    The psychology behind the mystery

    What makes blind box toys so hard to resist?

    Their success relies on a psychological principle known as variable-ratio reinforcement — the same reward pattern that makes slot machines so addictive.

    You never know exactly when you’ll score the item you’re after, but the possibility that the next box might contain it keeps people coming back. This unpredictability keeps people engaged, especially when the potential reward is framed as rare or valuable.

    Cconsumer psychology research also suggests that anticipation plays a major role. Studies show that dopamine, the brain’s reward chemical, spikes not just when we get what we want, but when we anticipate it. The sealed packaging, the suspense of unwrapping and the hope for a rare figure all heighten this effect.

    Sonny Angels on display in a store in Shenzhen, China, in March 2019.
    (Shutterstock)

    For younger collectors, the excitement of “the chase” can foster compulsive buying habits. This effect is amplified by the social influence of watching unboxings online or seeing friends complete their sets, and it becomes a powerful loop.

    Even when buyers don’t get the figure they want, the sunk cost fallacy — the feeling that they’ve already invested too much time or money to walk away — keeps them buying more.

    The hidden costs of blind boxes

    As blind box toys surge in popularity, they have drawn criticism from consumer advocates, psychologists and environmentalists alike.

    Some worry that blind boxes normalize gambling-like behaviours, especially among children. The randomness, excitement and promise of rare rewards closely mirror the mechanisms behind loot boxes in video games — another product that has sparked global concern over youth exposure to gambling psychology.

    Several countries, including Belgium and the Netherlands, have regulated loot boxes under gambling laws. Blind boxes, though currently unregulated, may be next in line for scrutiny.



    Read more:
    Blind bags: how toy makers are making a fortune with child gambling

    There are also environmental concerns. Many blind box toys come in excessive packaging — plastic wraps, foil bags, cardboard boxes — most of which is discarded immediately. The collectibles themselves are often made of non-recyclable plastics, raising questions about sustainability in an era of rising consumer awareness over waste.

    Even among adult fans, some critics question whether blind boxes are designed less to bring joy and more to trigger compulsive consumption. The joy of collecting, they argue, is increasingly overshadowed by the mechanics of engineered desire.

    What should we make of the blind box boom?

    Blind box toys are not inherently harmful, and for many, they’re a source of fun, nostalgia and self-expression. They also offer an accessible way for consumers to engage with designer art in a collectible, miniature form, as many of them are created by individual artists.

    But blind box toys also raise deeper questions about how modern marketing leverages psychological triggers associated with gambling, especially when it comes to children.

    As these toys continue to gain traction in the West, it’s worth asking more critical questions, like: are we buying into mystery or are we being sold obsession and compulsion?

    The blind box trend reflects broader shifts in how products are marketed, how value is perceived and how consumer behaviour is shaped in a digital, attention-driven economy. Understanding the forces at play may be the first step toward more informed — and perhaps more mindful — collecting.

    Eugene Y. Chan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Blind box toys are booming: Are they just child’s play or something more concerning? – https://theconversation.com/blind-box-toys-are-booming-are-they-just-childs-play-or-something-more-concerning-257611

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How Israel manufactured a looting crisis to cover up its Gaza famine

    By Muhammad Shehada

    Since the onset of its genocide, Israel has persistently pushed a narrative that the famine devastating Gaza is not of its own making, but the result of “Hamas looting aid”.

    This claim, repeated across mainstream media and parroted by officials, has been used to deflect responsibility for what many human rights experts have called a deliberate starvation campaign.

    Even after Israel fully banned the entry of food, water, fuel, and medicine on March 2, Tel Aviv continued to maintain that Hamas looting, not Israeli policy, was to blame for the humanitarian catastrophe.

    But that narrative has now been discredited by Israel’s internal reporting. Last week, the Israeli military admitted internally that out of 110 looting incidents they documented, none were carried out by Hamas.

    Instead, the looting was done by “armed gangs, organised clans” and, to a lesser extent, starved civilians.

    Those very gangs and clans are backed by Israel; they enjoy full Israeli army protection and operate in areas Israel deems “extermination zones”, where any Palestinian trying to enter would be killed or kidnapped on the spot.

    The gangs had vanished during the two-month ceasefire but conveniently re-emerged as soon as Israel was pressured into allowing a limited trickle of aid to enter. The timing is no coincidence; Israeli policy has deliberately weaponised anarchy to preserve the conditions for starvation.

    This pushed even the UAE to strongly condemn Israel after the army forced an Emirati aid convoy to drive through a “red zone” where Israel-backed gangs looted 23 out of 24 trucks.

    So why does Israel continue to cling to a demonstrably false narrative while openly engineering a looting crisis through its proxies? Because the myth of “Hamas looting” serves a critical strategic purpose: to whitewash and legitimise a new plan that institutionalises starvation for blackmail, ethnic cleansing, collective punishment, and mass internment through a shell Israeli organisation.

    This is coupled with another alarming tactic of recruiting warlords, drug dealers, and criminals to create a puppet “anti-terror” force.

    Israel’s looting myth
     The “looting” talking point is devoid of any logic, as Hamas would be able to do very little with thousands of tons of looted aid.

    Israel and US Ambassador Mike Huckabee both claim Hamas uses the looted aid to buy new weaponry. But where would they buy such weapons from when Gaza is fully sealed off by Israel, and Rafah — the city of smuggling tunnels — is under full Israeli control?

    Israel claims Hamas sells looted aid on the black market. But, again, what would they do with the money? Virtually nothing is allowed into Gaza except a trickle of food.

    Israel also claims Hamas uses looted aid to recruit new militants, but Hamas doesn’t operate this way. The group depends on utmost secrecy and discipline in its operations.

    Each new member passes through a long process of vetting, training, and tests to minimise the risk of infiltration. It would compromise Hamas to recruit people openly, whose only attachment to the group is bread rather than ideological commitment.

    Perhaps most damning is that Israel has never captured a single instance of Hamas looting aid, despite subjecting Gaza to the most meticulous surveillance on earth. Israeli predator drones cover every inch of the enclave every minute of the day, yet there is nothing to show for Israel’s claims.

    Hamas is also aware that hijacking and looting aid trucks could lead to Israel bombing the vehicles and diverting them from their predetermined route.

    The Israeli army has done this on countless occasions when it fired at or bombed humanitarian convoys under the pretext that Hamas policemen came near the trucks. Ironically, those law enforcement officials were actually trying to prevent looting when they were targeted.

    Israel’s allies reject the narrative
     Israel’s strongest supporters have refuted the “Hamas looting” claim. President Joe Biden’s humanitarian envoy, David Satterfield, admitted in February of last year that “no Israeli official has . . . come to the administration with specific evidence of diversion or theft of assistance delivered by the UN”.

    Satterfield reiterated last Tuesday that Israel has never privately alleged or offered evidence of Hamas stealing aid from the UN and INGO channels. Israel’s ambassador to the EU, Haim Regev, said in mid-October 2023 that “there’s no evidence EU aid went to Hamas”.

    Cindy McCain, World Food Programme’s chief and widow of one of the most pro-Israeli GOP senators, forcefully rejected Israel’s narrative on Sunday, saying that looting “doesn’t have anything to do with Hamas . . .  it has simply to do with the fact these people are starving to death”.

    The Washington Post, meanwhile, reported last week that “Israel has never presented evidence publicly or privately to humanitarian organisations or Western government officials to back up claims that Hamas had systematically stolen aid brought into Gaza”.

    An internal memo jointly drafted by UN agencies and 20 INGOs in April, and viewed by The New Arab, stated that “there is no evidence of large-scale aid diversion”.

    Gangs and scarcity are responsible for looting
     While Israel failed to show any evidence of Hamas stealing aid, the only documented organised systematic looting happening in Gaza right now is by Israeli-backed criminal gangs who enjoy full protection from the Israeli army, according to the Washington Post, Financial Times, Ha’aretz, and the UN.

    A UN memo said these gangs established a “military complex” in the heart of Rafah after Israel fully depopulated the city. Humanitarian officials say the looting often happens right in front of Israeli troops and tanks, less than 100m away, who take no action until the local police arrive, with Israeli troops then opening fire at them.

    Israel not only provides protection and backing to these criminal gangs but has created the perfect conditions for looting to thrive through scarcity and a collapsing state of law and order.

    Currently, a single bag of wheat flour sells for about 1,500 NIS ($425), which makes it profitable for gangs to loot and sell on the market. These astronomical prices are driven by scarcity after Israel banned all food from entering Gaza for nearly 80 days, then allowed less than 20 percent of what Gaza needs on a normal day for basic survival after intense international pressure.

    During the ceasefire, however, when Israel was allowing 600 trucks to enter per day, prices went back to normal and looting disappeared because it was no longer profitable due to the abundance of food, and because the police were able to resume their work.

    Manufactured crisis to advance genocide
     The engineered looting crisis has long served as a convenient excuse to cover up the deliberate weaponisation of starvation against Gaza’s entire population, allowing Israel to distract from its restrictions on the entry of aid and the spread of famine by saying Hamas is to blame for stealing aid.

    But now, this manufactured crisis is serving a second objective: to justify a dystopian ‘aid plan’ Israel is implementing in Gaza that has been condemned and boycotted by every UN agency and humanitarian organisation working in the enclave, as well as donor countries.

    A joint UN-INGO memo warned that the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation would facilitate the use of aid for forcible expulsion, by telling Gazans the only way they can receive food is by moving south to Rafah on Egypt’s border.

    GHF, which Israeli opposition leaders said was an Israeli shell funded by Mossad, began its operations last Tuesday after being rocked by two scandals in one day.

    GHF’s CEO had resigned on Sunday in protest of the organisation violating the principles of humanitarianism, while the organisation shut down its registered headquarters in Switzerland as soon as Swiss authorities launched an investigation.

    Images coming out of the GHF’s militarised aid distribution site were immediately likened to concentration camps, where hundreds of emaciated Gazans were crowded into metal cages like cattle under the boiling sun, surrounded by armed US mercenaries, Israeli troops, and sand dunes.

    Alarmingly, people who received aid noted the presence of Arabic speakers in addition to American mercenaries. Last week, the Israel-backed Islamic State-linked gang leader Yasser Abu Shabab emerged in Rafah again after a long disappearance.

    Abu Shabab, a drug dealer and wanted criminal previously arrested multiple times by the local police, was the primary suspect in the systematic looting of aid under Israeli protection. This time, however, he emerged in a brand new uniform and military gear and started a Facebook page promoting himself in English and Arabic to mark a new “anti-terror” force operating in Israel-controlled Rafah.

    Additional pictures viewed by The New Arab showed multiple armed men dressed in the same uniform as Abu Shabab armed with M-16s standing in front of a humanitarian convoy.

    The unravelling of Israel’s “Hamas looting” narrative lays bare a chilling truth: starvation in Gaza is not collateral damage — it is a calculated weapon in a broader campaign of collective punishment and displacement.

    By cultivating chaos, empowering criminal gangs, and then manipulating the humanitarian crisis they manufactured, Israel seeks to maintain extreme restrictions on aid, while externalising blame and avoiding accountability.

    It is the machinery of genocide disguised in bureaucratic language and carried out under the watchful eyes of the world.

    Muhammad Shehada is a Palestinian writer and analyst from Gaza and the European Union affairs manager at Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor. The article was first published by The New Arab. On X at: @muhammadshehad2

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PNG faces deadline for fixing issues with money laundering and terrorist financing

    ANALYSIS: By Scott Waide, RNZ Pacific PNG correspondent

    Papua New Guinea has five months remaining to fix its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CTF) systems or face the severe repercussions of being placed on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) “grey list”.

    The FATF has imposed an October 2025 deadline, and the government is scrambling to prove its commitment to global partners.

    Speaking in Parliament, Prime Minister James Marape said Treasury Minister, Ian Ling-Stuckey had been given the responsibility to lead a taskforce to fix PNG’s issues associated with money laundering and terrorist financing.

    “I summoned all agency heads to a critical meeting last week giving them clear direction, in no uncertain terms, that they work day and night to avert the possibility of us getting grey listed,” Marape said.

    “This review comes around every five years.

    “We have only three or four areas that are outstanding that we must dispatch forthwith.”

    PNG is no stranger to the FATF grey list, having been placed under increased monitoring in 2014 before successfully being removed in 2016.

    Deficiencies highlighted
    However, a recent assessment by the Asia Pacific Group on Money Laundering (APG) highlighted ongoing deficiencies, particularly in the effectiveness of PNG’s AML/CTF regime.

    While the country has made strides in establishing the necessary laws and regulations (technical compliance), the real challenge lies in PNG’s implementation and enforcement.

    The core of the problem, according to analysts, is a lack of effective prosecution and punishment for money laundering and terrorism financing.

    High-risk sectors such as corruption, fraud against government programmes, illegal logging, illicit fishing, and tax evasion, remain largely unchecked by successful legal actions.

    Capacity gaps within key agencies like the Royal Papua New Guinea Constabulary and the Office of the Public Prosecutor have been cited as significant hurdles.

    Recent drug hauls have also highlighted existing flaws in detection in the country’s financial systems.

    The implications of greylisting are far-reaching and potentially devastating for a developing nation like PNG, which is heavily reliant on foreign investment and international financial flows.

    Impact on economy
    Deputy Opposition leader James Nomane warned in Parliament that greylisting “will severely affect the economy, investor confidence, and make things worse for Papua New Guinea with respect to inflationary pressures, the cost of imports, and a whole host of issues”.

    If PNG is greylisted, the immediate economic fallout could be substantial. It would signal to global financial institutions that PNG carries a heightened risk for financial crimes, potentially leading to a sharp decline in foreign direct investment.

    Critical resource projects, including Papua LNG, P’nyang LNG, Wafi-Golpu, and Frieda River Mines, could face delays or even be halted as investors become wary of the increased financial and reputational risks.

    Beyond investment, the cost of doing business in PNG could also rise. International correspondent banks, vital conduits for cross-border transactions, may de-risk by cutting ties or scaling back operations with PNG financial institutions.

    This “de-risking” could make it more expensive and complex for businesses and individuals alike to conduct international transactions, leading to higher fees and increased scrutiny.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Phil Goff: Israel doesn’t care how many innocent people, children it’s killing

    COMMENTARY: By Phil Goff

    “What we are doing in Gaza now is a war of devastation: indiscriminate, limitless, cruel and criminal killing of civilians. It’s the result of government policy — knowingly, evilly, maliciously, irresponsibly dictated.”

    This statement was made not by a foreign or liberal critic of Israel but by the former Prime Minister and former senior member of Benjamin Netanyahu’s own Likud party, Ehud Olmet.

    Nightly, we witness live-streamed evidence of the truth of his statement — lethargic and gaunt children dying of malnutrition, a bereaved doctor and mother of 10 children, nine of them killed by an Israeli strike (and her husband, another doctor, died later), 15 emergency ambulance workers gunned down by the IDF as they tried to help others injured by bombs, despite their identity being clear.

    Statistics reflect the scale of the horror imposed on Palestinians who are overwhelmingly civilians — 54,000 killed, 121,000 maimed and injured. Over 17,000 of these are children.

    This can no longer be excused as regrettable collateral damage from targeted attacks on Hamas.

    Israel simply doesn’t care about the impact of its military attacks on civilians and how many innocent people and children it is killing.

    Its willingness to block all humanitarian aid- food, water, medical supplies, from Gaza demonstrates further its willingness to make mass punishment and starvation a means to achieve its ends. Both are war crimes.

    Influenced by the right wing extremists in the Coalition cabinet, like Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s goal is no longer self defence or justifiable retaliation against Hamas terrorists.

    Israel attacks Palestinians at US-backed aid hubs in Gaza, killing 36. Image: AJ screenshot APR

    Making life unbearable
    The Israeli government policy is focused on making life unbearable for Palestinians and seeking to remove them from their homeland. In this, they are openly encouraged by President Trump who has publicly and repeatedly endorsed deporting the Palestinian population so that the Gaza could be made into a “Middle East Riviera”.

    This is not the once progressive pioneer Israel, led by people who had faced the Nazi Holocaust and were fighting for the right to a place where they could determine their own future and be safe.

    Sadly, a country of people who were themselves long victims of oppression is now guilty of oppressing and committing genocide against others.

    New Zealand recently joined 23 other countries calling out Israel and demanding a full supply of foreign aid be allowed into Gaza.

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters called Israel’s actions “ intolerable”. He said that we had “had enough and were running out of patience and hearing excuses”.

    While speaking out might make us feel better, words are not enough. Israel’s attacks on the civilian population in Gaza are being increased, aid distribution which has restarted is grossly insufficient to stop hunger and human suffering and Palestinians are being herded into confined areas described as humanitarian zones but which are still subject to bombardment.

    People living in tents in schools and hospitals are being slaughtered.

    World must force Israel to stop
    Like Putin, Israel will not end its killing and oppression unless the world forces it to. The US has the power but will not do this.

    The sanctions Trump has imposed are not on Israel’s leaders but on judges in the International Criminal Court (ICC) who dared to find Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu guilty of war crimes.

    New Zealand’s foreign policy has traditionally involved working with like-minded countries, often small nations like us. Two of these, Ireland and Sweden, are seeking to impose sanctions on Israel.

    Both are members of the European Union which makes up a third of Israel’s global trade. If the EU decides to act, sanctions imposed by it would have a big impact on Israel.

    These sanctions should be both on trade and against individuals.

    New Zealand has imposed sanctions on a small number of extremist Jewish settlers on the West Bank where there is evidence of them using violence against Palestinian villagers.

    These sanctions should be extended to Israel’s political leadership and New Zealand could take a lead in doing this. We should not be influenced by concern that by taking a stand we might offend US president Donald Trump.

    Show our preparedness to uphold values
    In the way that we have been proud of in the past, we should as a small but fiercely independent country show our preparedness to uphold our own values and act against gross abuse of human rights and flagrant disregard for international law.

    We should be working with others through the United Nations General Assembly to maximise political pressure on Israel to stop the ongoing killing of innocent civilians.

    Moral outrage at what Israel is doing has to be backed by taking action with others to force the Israeli government to end the killing, destruction, mass punishment and deliberate starvation of Palestinians including their children.

    An American doctor working at a Gaza hospital reported that in the last five weeks he had worked on dozens of badly injured children but not a single combatant.

    He noted that as well as being maimed and disfigured by bombing, many of the children were also suffering from malnutrition. Children were dying from wounds that they could recover from but there were not the supplies needed to treat them.

    Protest is not enough. We need to act.

    Phil Goff is Aotearoa New Zealand’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs. This article was first published by the Stuff website and is republished with the permission of the author.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Airbnb scams: new book explores thriving criminal activity on big tech platforms

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Julie Reid, Professor, University of South Africa

    Big tech sharing economy platforms like Airbnb and Uber are marketed as trustworthy, but a new book by a South African media scholar argues that they are highly vulnerable to scammers who spread delusive speech (a form of disinformation, designed to deceive by criminal intent).

    Julie Reid draws from first-hand accounts and over 600 cases from around the world of victims lured into scams or physical danger by fake Airbnb reviews and listings, providing a detailed case study. We asked her five questions about her book.

    How do the scams work?

    Airbnb is the world’s largest accommodation-sharing platform. It connects property owners who want to rent out their homes with travellers looking for alternatives to traditional hotels. The company recently expanded its offering and now facilitates the booking of other services like personal trainers or caterers along with accommodation rentals.

    Airbnb scams happen in several ways. The most obvious is the phantom listing scam. The scammer constructs a fake but attractive listing on Airbnb and accepts payments from unsuspecting guests. It’s only when guests arrive at the address that they discover the property doesn’t exist. Scammers have also learnt to navigate around Airbnb’s review system. Fake positive reviews are produced by scam host networks, making them appear to be authentic.

    Bait and switch scams are also common. Here the scam “host” contacts the guest on check-in day claiming the reserved property is suddenly unavailable. They offer alternative accommodation, which the guest later discovers is not as good as the original property they’ve paid for (which is often fictional). The guest pays for a premium rental but is forced to stay in a property that might be unsafe, unclean, or missing amenities.

    Scam hosts use misleading, plagiarised, or AI-generated property images and fake descriptions along with fake personal profiles and aliases.

    Delusive tactics also redirect guests away from the secure Airbnb payment portal to alternative payment methods. The scammer disappears with the money.

    But the danger isn’t limited to financial crimes. The platform’s business model is premised on staying in a stranger’s private property, which can put guests’ personal safety at risk.

    Criminal hosts can lure targets into dangerous environments. Once checked in, guests are isolated from public view, housed in a property to which the host has access.

    I’ve assessed multiple cases where Airbnb guests were assaulted, robbed with no signs of forced entry, raped, murdered, made victims of sexploitation, extortion or human trafficking, or held hostage.

    How does the disinformation work?

    I consider delusive speech a subset of disinformation because it presents intentionally misleading content at scale. But it differs from disinformation in its intentions. It isn’t done to promote a particular cause or gain ideological, military, or political advantage. Delusive speech is motivated purely by criminal intent or nefarious financial gain.



    Read more:
    The sharing economy can expose you to liability risks – here’s how to protect yourself

    Delusive speech works by hiding in plain sight on platforms we think we can trust, like Airbnb, Booking.com, Uber and others. Often, it’s indistinguishable from honest and genuine content. When users browse Airbnb listings for holiday accommodation, they’re presented with numerous options. A fake property listing looks, sounds and feels exactly the same as a genuine one.

    This happens on a platform that has built its brand narrative around the concept of trust. Scammers exploit these digital contexts of pre-established trust. When users log on to popular e-commerce or sharing economy platforms, they’re already primed to pay for something. It becomes relatively easy for scammers to delude targets into parting with their money.

    What can Airbnb do about it?

    Airbnb already has several trust and safety mechanisms in place. They include rapid response teams, an expert Trust and Safety Advisory Coalition and travel insurance for guests. The company claims to be trying to stop fake listings with machine learning technology.

    Sadly, none of these mechanisms work perfectly. While Airbnb promises to verify properties and host identities, my analysis exposes flaws in these systems. Scammers easily bypass verification tiers through aliases, forged documents and AI-generated material. Airbnb has admitted it needs to address the failures of its verification processes.



    Read more:
    How to stay safe in cyberspace: 5 essential reads

    My analysis uncovered how scammed guests are routinely denied the opportunity to post reviews of problematic rentals. Opaque terms of service and content policies allow Airbnb customer service agents and executives to justify censoring negative but honest guest reviews.

    This means dangerous and fraudulent activity goes publicly unreported and unreviewed, leaving future guests vulnerable. I argue that Airbnb’s review curation mechanisms should be revamped according to internationally recognised human rights frameworks that protect freedom of speech. This would allow for more honest accounts of guest experiences and create a safer online environment.

    Perhaps the most common complaint I encountered was that Airbnb doesn’t remove offending listings from its platform, even after a scammed guest provides evidence that the listing was posted by a fraudster. Airbnb must develop an urgent protocol for swiftly removing offending listings when discovered, to protect future guests from falling victim to the same scam trap.

    What can users do to protect themselves?

    Travellers can protect themselves by being extra cautious. Ask around. Seek recommendations from people you know and trust, and who can verify that the property you are booking actually exists and that the host is trustworthy.

    If that isn’t an option, consider an established hotel instead, but book directly with the hotel and not via third party sites like Booking.com where listings can easily be faked. Check on Google Street View to make sure the property is where it claims to be.

    Either way, have a Plan B in case things go wrong. Prepare ahead of your trip by deciding what you will do if you find yourself in an unsafe situation. And always, always, buy travel insurance.

    Is it part of a bigger problem?

    I assessed several digitally initiated scam categories in this book. While my main case study focused on Airbnb, the problem of delusive speech online isn’t unique to this platform. Delusive speech is now carried by all major tech platforms integral to everyday life.



    Read more:
    How Airbnb is reshaping our cities

    In the book, I also highlight how scammers operate in every corner of the internet, including dating apps like Grindr, Tinder and Hinge; ride-sharing services like Uber, Lyft and Bolt; travel sites like Booking.com and Hotels.com; and social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, among others.

    I hope that these examples will boost awareness of the risks of using these apps and sites.

    Julie Reid does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Airbnb scams: new book explores thriving criminal activity on big tech platforms – https://theconversation.com/airbnb-scams-new-book-explores-thriving-criminal-activity-on-big-tech-platforms-256806

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sexism in science: 7 women whose trailblazing work shattered stereotypes

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Christa Kuljian, Research Associate, WiSER, University of the Witwatersrand

    Seven women were part of a trailblazing network of feminist scientists in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s in the Boston area in the US. Christa Kuljian is a science writer and historian of science who focuses much of her research on issues of science and society, gender and race. She is the author of two previous books of narrative nonfiction – Sanctuary and Darwin’s Hunch. In her new book Our Science, Ourselves she focuses on the life stories of the seven women. We asked her about her book.

    How did you choose the scientists you focused on in the book?

    I grew up in the Boston area in the 1970s, and in high school, my parents gave me a copy of the revolutionary guide to women’s health, Our Bodies, Ourselves, which was published by the Boston Women’s Health Book Collective. In the early 1980s, I studied the history of science at Harvard and took a course with Ruth Hubbard called Bio 109: Biology and Women’s Issues.

    Hubbard, in 1974, was the first woman to achieve tenure in biology at Harvard, and she features in the book. Her course taught about how scientists, including Charles Darwin, promoted stereotypes and myths about women’s biology. The idea for Our Science, Ourselves grew from that formative experience in Hubbard’s course.

    But it also had roots in another, more recent experience. In 2016, I published Darwin’s Hunch: Science, Race and the Search for Human Origins, about the history of palaeoanthropology in South Africa. The book explores questions that some of my history of science professors might have asked. What influence did the social and political context of colonialism and apartheid have on the search for human origins?

    After it was published, I was struck by several stories that brought science and sexism into the popular media. In July 2017, James Damore at Google wrote that “the gender gap in tech” likely existed because of biological differences between men and women, and he received support from popular psychologist Jordan Peterson.

    In September 2018, an Italian physicist, Alessandro Strumia, said that the low number of women in physics was proof that women were innately less capable than men. He suggested that male scientists were being discriminated against to give opportunities to women.

    These statements reminded me of what former Harvard president Larry Summers had said back in 2005. Drawing on the work of psychologist and popular writer Steven Pinker, Summers spoke of women having a “different availability of aptitude” in science and math.

    Why were these myths about women’s biology still having an impact in the 21st century? I decided to go back to my class notes and look more closely at Hubbard’s research. Who had she worked with at the time? What were other scientists with a feminist awareness saying in the 1970s and 1980s?

    As a result of many interviews, and research in the archives, I discovered a fascinating network of women, all of whom contributed to feminist critiques of science, and ultimately to the field of feminist science studies.

    Our Science, Ourselves follows the lives of Ruth Hubbard, Rita Arditti, Evelyn Fox Keller, Evelynn Hammonds, Anne Fausto-Sterling, Banu Subramaniam and Nancy Hopkins.

    None of these women scientists were born in Boston, but they all moved there to study, take a job, conduct research, or network with other scientists. Part of what made Boston interesting to me was the critical mass of colleges, universities and scientists, but also the presence of social movements that influenced these women, including Science for the People, the Combahee River Collective and others.

    Could you tell us about one or two of these women’s stories?

    One of them is Rita Arditti. An Argentinian geneticist at Harvard Medical School, she led a protest in December 1969 at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston. Along with 12 colleagues carrying posters and pamphlets, she arrived unannounced at a special luncheon for women scientists, calling for an end to discrimination against women in science. Most of the women ignored Arditti, but Hubbard was in the audience and paid attention. The protest did have a ripple effect on the association.

    Over time, Arditti and Hubbard became friends, became active in a new organisation called Science for the People, and began to write not only about discrimination against women scientists, but also about how science portrayed women’s biology in stereotypical ways.

    Another is Evelynn Hammonds, who studied physics at Spelman College, a historically Black women’s college in Atlanta. In 1976, she read an important report, The Double Bind: The Price of Being a Minority Woman in Science, co-authored by Shirley Malcom and published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

    With Malcom’s encouragement, Hammonds applied to and was accepted at MIT in the Boston area. Over time, she joined a growing network of women who were critiquing their science. She became a teaching assistant for Hubbard and rented an apartment from Arditti, and became a foundational influence in gender, race and the history of science.

    Hammonds emphasised that when speaking out against scientific sexism it was important to speak out against scientific racism as well, and that it was critical to address both.

    How do the current US administration policies on science and diversity relate to your book?

    Sudip Parikh, the CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, said in testimony before the US Senate appropriations committee on 30 April 2025:

    The scientific community is in paralysis right now.

    The current attack on science has had a major impact, ending funding for important scientific research. Young scientists and science students are concerned for their future. The US administration’s policy of cutting funds to any programmes related to diversity or equity is an onslaught on decades of progress in this area, and will have a grave impact on the scientific research agenda.

    There is a growing list of words that have been scrubbed from US government websites and documents, including “women”, “race”, “racism”, “feminism”, “activist” and “bias”. The use of any of these words in scientific research proposals can result in federal funding being cut. For example, the US Food and Drug Administration published an announcement in mid-2024 that discussed the importance of diversity in clinical trials. That document is no longer available on the website.

    The women in Our Science, Ourselves made important contributions by highlighting how scientific institutions historically have been exclusionary. They also shone a light on how scientific research questions and analysis can be biased (rather than always neutral or objective), thereby affecting the knowledge they produce.

    The tools that feminist science studies has developed are critical to the sciences because they ask new questions, and develop new methodologies that help science account for gender and racial bias. Who is doing science? Who decides on the research questions? Who offers analysis and who benefits?

    The US administration’s actions are a major setback for science and scientific research, as well as gender, race and sexuality studies, which have made vital contributions to science, medicine and technology. The history of these fields and the life stories of some of the dynamic women in them, can offer readers inspiration for the present moment.

    Our Science, Ourselves is available from University of Massachusetts Press and Amazon in the US, on Kindle, and from Love Books in Johannesburg, South Africa.

    Christa Kuljian received research funding from Harvard University’s Schlesinger Library on the History of Women in America and from the Consortium for History of Science, Technology and Medicine (CHSTM) in Philadelphia. She is a member of the History of Science Society.

    – ref. Sexism in science: 7 women whose trailblazing work shattered stereotypes – https://theconversation.com/sexism-in-science-7-women-whose-trailblazing-work-shattered-stereotypes-257265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Togo’s citizens want to leave Ecowas – new survey suggests why

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Koffi Améssou Adaba, Enseignant et chercheur en sociologie politique, Université de Lomé

    A survey of Togolese citizens recently looked into perceptions of their government’s handling of the terrorist threat in the northern region and of the Alliance of Sahel States – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The survey was carried out by Afrobarometer, an independent, pan-African research network, in partnership with the Center for Research and Opinion Polls.

    The Savanes region in northern Togo, bordering Burkina Faso, has become an area of insecurity since a jihadist attack in 2021. This security crisis is part of a broader context of growing destabilisation in west African countries, centred on the Sahel region. It led to the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States in July 2024. The survey also covered perceptions of foreign influence in Togo and discrimination against women and girls.

    Koffi Amessou Adaba, a political sociologist and one of the lead authors of the study, shares insights into the survey’s key findings, and the potential implications for Togo’s future.

    What are the key findings of the survey?

    The survey, which involved 53,444 people, reveals that 64% of Togolese believe the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to form the Alliance of Sahel States is “somewhat” or “very” justified. This view is driven by three main factors:

    • a perception that Ecowas is influenced by foreign powers

    • a widespread rejection of Ecowas sanctions against Sahel states

    • the belief that Ecowas failed to provide military support during those countries’ security crises.

    In addition, 54% of Togolese consider the presence of Russia (or the Wagner Group, now known as Africa Corps) in the Alliance of Sahel States to be beneficial. This trust in a non-western external actor reflects a profound shift in geopolitical perceptions in the region.

    Another important finding of this study is that 54% of Togolese believe their country would benefit from leaving Ecowas to join the Alliance of Sahel States.

    But opinions are split on whether the Alliance of Sahel States helps or hurts west African integration: 39% believe it doesn’t undermine regional integration, but 37% think it does.



    Read more:
    West Africa is changing: five essential reads on breakaways from Ecowas

    How do you make sense of the Togolese push to leave Ecowas?

    This sentiment reflects growing frustration with Ecowas, which many Togolese now see as out of touch with the region’s realities.

    The bloc is widely perceived as being too close to foreign powers and ineffective in responding to major security threats. Its repeated failures to help resolve Togo’s political crises (of 2005 and 2017 for example) have only deepened public disillusionment.

    This frustration is unfolding alongside a broader wave of pan-Africanism in the region, marked by a growing rejection of former colonial powers and their institutional ties.

    But this momentum should be approached with caution. The desire to leave Ecowas reflects anger and a strong appetite for change, not necessarily a clear assessment of the economic and diplomatic fallout such a move could bring.



    Read more:
    Ecowas breakup could push up food prices and worsen hunger in west Africa

    What do respondents think about terrorism in the north of the country?

    Nearly six in ten Togolese (59%) say they trust the government to contain or root out the terror threat. This shows broad support for official counter-terrorism efforts, although some question the current strategy.

    Opinions are especially split on how the crisis is communicated. Some find the messaging vague or lacking in transparency. Others think it helps keep people alert without sparking panic.

    The survey reveals deeper concerns. Even Togolese outside conflict zones report growing insecurity. The northern crisis appears to be fuelling nationwide anxiety.



    Read more:
    Mali is still unsafe under the military: why it hasn’t made progress against rebels and terrorists

    Should Togo leave Ecowas?

    Since tensions flared, Togo has been neutral. It has not openly condemned the Alliance of Sahel States countries and has maintained its membership of Ecowas. This careful stance reflects national sentiment – which leans towards support for the Alliance of Sahel States – while preserving Togo’s strategic and economic interests.

    This approach isn’t new. It’s part of a long-standing Togolese tradition of balanced, pragmatic diplomacy. The nation has always pursued pragmatic and independent foreign policy that adapts to regional dynamics.

    As west Africa’s geopolitical landscape shifts, Togo should:

    • maintain open cooperative relations with both Ecowas and the Alliance of Sahel States

    • preserve its strategic position as a logistics and trade hub for the region, particularly through the Port of Lomé

    • strengthen its image as a diplomatic force for stability in west Africa.



    Read more:
    Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have a new defence alliance: an expert view of its chances of success

    Can Togo maintain its delicate balancing act?

    Togo’s careful balancing act remains its safest bet. The truth is, no one knows what the future holds for the Alliance of Sahel States bloc. But this middle ground gives Togo strategic flexibility regardless of how regional politics evolve.

    Togo’s position leaves it well-placed either way. If the Alliance of Sahel States countries rejoin Ecowas, Togo keeps its influence. If they don’t, it still benefits from its neutrality.

    Ultimately, Togo should keep playing this diplomatic card. Its measured approach offers rare stability in a volatile region.

    Koffi Améssou Adaba does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Togo’s citizens want to leave Ecowas – new survey suggests why – https://theconversation.com/togos-citizens-want-to-leave-ecowas-new-survey-suggests-why-256928

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Forecasters expect a busy 2025 hurricane season – a storm scientist explains why and what meteorologists are watching

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Colin Zarzycki, Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climate Dynamics, Penn State

    U.S. forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are expecting an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms, and 6 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes.

    But, how do they know what’s likely to happen months in the future?

    I’m an atmospheric scientist who studies extreme weather. Let’s take a look at what Atlantic hurricane forecasts are based on and why those forecasts can shift during the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

    What goes into a seasonal forecast

    Think of the preseason hurricane forecast as the 30,000-foot view: It can’t predict if or when a storm will hit a particular location, but it can offer insight into how many storms are likely to form throughout the entire Atlantic, and how active the season overall might be.

    These outlooks rely heavily on two large-scale climate factors.

    The first is the sea surface temperature in areas where tropical cyclones tend to form and grow. Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. So when the Atlantic is unusually warm, as it has been in recent years, it provides more fuel for storms to form and intensify.

    Once water temperatures are 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius), hurricanes can form. Most of the Gulf was above that by late May 2025.
    NOAA/NESDIS

    The second key ingredient that meteorologists have their eye on is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which forecasters refer to as ENSO. ENSO is a climate cycle that shifts every few years between three main phases: El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral space that lives somewhere in between.

    During El Niño, winds over the Atlantic high up in the troposphere – roughly 25,000 to 40,000 feet – strengthen and can disrupt storms and hurricanes. La Niña, on the other hand, tends to reduce these winds, making it easier for storms to form and grow. When you look over the historical hurricane record, La Niña years have tended to be busier than their El Niño counterparts, as we saw from 2020 through 2023.

    We’re in the neutral phase as the 2025 hurricane season begins, and probably will be for at least a few more months. That means upper-level winds aren’t particularly hostile to hurricanes, but they’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet either.

    At the same time, sea surface temperatures are running warmer than the 30-year average, but not quite at the record-breaking levels seen in some recent seasons.

    Taken together, these conditions point to a moderately above-average hurricane season.

    It’s important to emphasize that these factors merely load the dice, tilting the odds toward more or fewer storms, but not guaranteeing an outcome. A host of other variables influence whether a storm actually forms, how strong it becomes, and whether it ever threatens land.

    The smaller influences forecasters can’t see yet

    Once hurricane season is underway, forecasters start paying close attention to shorter-term influences.

    These subseasonal factors evolve quickly enough that they don’t shape the entire season. However, they can noticeably raise or lower the chances for storms developing in the coming two to four weeks.

    One factor is dust lofted from the Sahara Desert by strong winds and carried from east to west across the Atlantic.

    These dust plumes tend to suppress hurricanes by drying out the atmosphere and reducing sunlight that reaches the ocean surface. Dust outbreaks are next-to-impossible to predict months in advance, but satellite observations of growing plumes can give forecasters a heads-up a couple weeks before the dust reaches the primary hurricane development region off the coast of Africa.

    Dust blowing in from the Sahara Desert can tamp down hurricane activities by shading the ocean over the main development region for hurricanes and drying out the atmosphere, just off the African coast. This plume spread over 2,000 miles in June 2020.
    NASA

    Another key ingredient that doesn’t go into seasonal forecasts but becomes important during the season are African easterly waves. These “waves” are clusters of thunderstorms that roll off the West African coast, tracking from east to west across the ocean. Most major storms in the Atlantic basin, especially in the peak months of August and September, can trace their origins back to one of these waves.

    Forecasters monitor strong waves as they begin their westward journey across the Atlantic, knowing they can provide some insight about potential risks to U.S. interests one to two weeks in advance.

    Also in this subseasonal mix is the Madden–Julian Oscillation. The MJO is a wave-like pulse of atmospheric activity that moves slowly around the tropics every 30 to 60 days. When the MJO is active over the Atlantic, it enhances the formation of thunderstorms associated with hurricanes. In its suppressed phase, storm activity tends to die down. The MJO doesn’t guarantee storms – or a lack of them – but it turns up or down the odds. Its phase and position can be tracked two or three weeks in advance.

    Lastly, forecasters will talk about the Loop Current, a deep river of warm water that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.

    When storms pass over the Loop Current or its warm eddies, they can rapidly intensify because they are drawing energy from not just the warm surface water but from warm water that’s tens of meters deep. The Loop Current has helped power several historic Gulf storms, including Hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Ida in 2021.

    The Loop Current stretched well into the Gulf in May 2022. The scale, in meters, shows the maximum depth at which temperatures were 78 F (26 C) or greater.
    Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY-ND

    But the Loop Current is always shifting. Its strength and location in early summer may look very different by late August or September.

    Combined, these subseasonal signals help forecasters fine-tune their outlooks as the season unfolds.

    Where hurricanes form shifts over the months

    Where storms are most likely to form and make landfall also changes as the pages of the calendar turn.

    In early summer, the Gulf of Mexico warms up faster than the open Atlantic, making it a notable hotspot for early-season tropical storm development, especially in June and July. The Texas coast, Louisiana, and the Florida Panhandle often face a higher early-season risk than locations along the Eastern seaboard.

    These are generally the busiest areas during each month of hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean hurricanes won’t make landfall elsewhere.
    NOAA

    By August and September, the season reaches its peak. This is when those waves moving off the coast of Africa become a primary source of storm activity. These long-track storms are sometimes called “Cape Verde hurricanes” because they originate near the Cape Verde Islands off the African coast. While many stay over open water, others can gather steam and track toward the Caribbean, Florida or the Carolinas.

    Later in the hurricane season, storms are more likely to form in the western Atlantic or Caribbean, where waters are still warm and upper-level winds remain favorable. These late-season systems have a higher probability of following atypical paths, as Sandy did in 2012 when it struck the New York City region and Milton did in 2024 before making landfall in Florida.

    At the end of the day, the safest way to think about hurricane season is this: If you live along the coast, don’t let your guard down. Areas susceptible to hurricanes are never totally immune from hurricanes, and it only takes one to make it a dangerous – and unforgettable – season.

    Colin Zarzycki’s research lab receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    – ref. Forecasters expect a busy 2025 hurricane season – a storm scientist explains why and what meteorologists are watching – https://theconversation.com/forecasters-expect-a-busy-2025-hurricane-season-a-storm-scientist-explains-why-and-what-meteorologists-are-watching-257223

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Investors are calling Trump a chicken – here’s why that matters

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Dryden, PhD Student in Economics, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London

    Calling someone “chicken” might sound like a playground insult, but it’s exactly the label some financial investors have begun attaching to US president Donald Trump. The “Taco” trade, short for “Trump Always Chickens Out”, has gained traction in financial circles in recent weeks, as investors come to believe that whenever markets begin to slide as a result of one of his policy decisions, Trump tends to retreat.

    The jibe appears to have struck a nerve. When a reporter asked him about the “chicken” reputation this week, Trump bristled. “Oh isn’t that nice – I chicken out. I’ve never heard that,” he snapped. The president returned to the topic later to criticise the “nasty” question and insisted that he was no such thing.

    Policy reversals have been a hallmark of both Trump’s first and second terms. During the 2018-19 trade wars, he frequently threatened sweeping tariffs only to water them down in subsequent rounds of negotiation.

    A similar pattern has emerged this year. In early April, Trump’s “liberation day” announcement triggered a sharp sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling more than 12% over the following week.

    However, as market volatility surged, the administration softened its positioned and opted to delay the tariffs for 90 days. As the tariff plans were softened, markets rebounded. The index is now 4% higher than it was before the announcement and up 0.7% year-to-date.

    To the president’s supporters, these policy U-turns reflect his shrewd negotiating tactics designed to extract concessions or cajole reluctant governments into striking trade deals. But to many investors, the pattern looks less like strategy and more like retreat. And while the Taco nickname might sound like a playground insult, for financial investors the jibe has a real impact on navigating financial markets.

    Credibility is currency

    When investors call a politician or policymaker a “chicken”, it’s not just a jab at their courage. It’s a much more serious insult that calls into question their credibility. And in financial markets, that’s one of the most valuable assets a leader can have.

    As a policymaker or politician, communicating successfully with markets depends on trust. Investors allocate capital based on expectations about the future – inflation, trade flows, interest rates, fiscal spending – and those expectations are influenced not only by what policymakers do, but by what they say.

    If a leader regularly threatens sweeping economic action but repeatedly backs down at the first sign of trouble, their credibility begins to erode.

    Once that doubt takes hold, it changes the dynamic. Investors begin to ignore warnings as threats are brushed off and policymakers’ influence loses its force.

    The erosion of a leader’s credibility among investors is likely initially to dampen market volatility as investors begin to ignore the words of politicians and policymakers. They assume that the status quo will remain in place as a leader is unwilling or unable to instigate the changes they had initially proposed, leading to little change in financial markets. This weakens a leader’s ability to steer market expectations and, by extension, the broader economy.

    However, the Taco mindset could be dangerous if it takes hold in markets. Once investors start to assume that Trump will always blink, they build their portfolios around that expectation. Talk of sweeping economic changes or significant increases in tariffs begin to be ignored as investors lean into risky positions in the belief that escalation will be avoided at the last minute. This can create a false sense of calm that holds only as long as Trump plays to type.

    ‘It’s called negotiating.’ Trump was clearly angered by the chicken jibe.

    But the “chicken” jibe has clearly angered the president. He may well be looking for an opportunity to change investors’ minds. If Trump decides to hold the line by pushing through tariffs without compromise even in the face of legal action, or let a standoff over the US debt ceiling run hot, this could catch complacent investors off-guard.

    The resulting repricing is likely to be sharp and disorderly. Volatility could spike, not because Trump changed, but because investors assumed he never would and then overreact when he does. In that sense, the real risk of the Taco mindset isn’t that it insults Trump – it’s that it provokes a stubborn response. A president who digs his heels in and ploughs ahead with risky policies despite all the warning signs would be bad news for the whole world – and the global economy.

    Alex Dryden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Investors are calling Trump a chicken – here’s why that matters – https://theconversation.com/investors-are-calling-trump-a-chicken-heres-why-that-matters-257926

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kyiv’s allies have lifted restrictions on Ukraine attacking targets inside Russia – here’s what that means for the war

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Powell, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of Portsmouth

    The frontlines in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict have largely been bogged down, with little significant movement on either side. It was reported recently that Russian troops had only advanced about 25 miles in the eastern sector near Donetsk in one year, at a huge cost in terms of casualties. As a result, both sides have sought different ways of trying to gain a strategic advantage over their opponent.

    Air power has long been a recognised way of restoring a degree of mobility to the battlefield. But in Ukraine, neither side has been able to achieve control of the air, thanks to the quality of their air defences. So instead, both sides are using drones for “tactical” (small-scale) effect.

    At this point, it’s worth focusing on the three levels of warfare: tactical, operational and strategic. The chart below, taken from the US Military Review, illustrates how these levels work – operating as a “distinct hierarchy with marginally overlapping areas between the strategic and the operational, and between the tactical and the operational”.

    The three levels of war: tactical, operational and strategic.
    Army University Press

    The tactical level is where small actions are planned and executed. At the operational level, major operations and campaigns are planned with a view to achieving strategic objectives. The strategic level involves longer-term ways to achieve the overarching political objectives of a conflict.

    Russia’s ability to deploy long-range missiles and longer-range drones (such as the Shahed 136) that can strike targets – both military and civilian – deep inside Ukraine, has given it a strategic advantage.

    There are two strategic aims to these strikes. The first is to reduce Ukraine’s capacity to produce military equipment through its domestic industrial base. The second is to target urban areas and civilian populations to undermine public morale – although how effective this is has long been a matter for debate.

    Advantage Russia

    The prohibition on Ukraine using weapons supplied by its allies to strike targets in Russia has put it at a considerable disadvantage – meaning that Ukraine’s military has been unable to exploit these weapons’ full potential. So, Russia has been able to build a considerable military/industrial base without threat of attack.

    But now, the decision to lift these restrictions by the UK, US and, most recently, Germany will allow Ukraine to attack a wider range of targets and create more strategic difficulties for Russian political and military leadership.

    In particular, it’s worth highlighting the recent statement by the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who announced on May 28 that Berlin would help Kyiv develop new long-range weapons that can hit targets in Russian territory.

    To what extent Ukraine will be able to exploit this greater latitude to attack targets inside Russia remains to be seen. But the prospect of long-range missiles being used against its cities – the German Taurus missiles have a range of more than 500km – could give Ukraine a degree of leverage in any fresh peace talks.

    The lifting of these restrictions is unlikely to make much difference on the ground for some time, though. While theoretically, Ukraine will be able to strike at some of Russia’s military production sites, Russia has dramatically overhauled its arms production capacity. Nato’s top US commander is reported to have recently told a Senate Armed Services Committee that Russia is “on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined”.

    No restrictions – for now

    It’s also worth noting that both the US and UK signalled their willingness to allow their long-range missiles to strike at missile launchers inside Russia late last year as a defensive measure – but on a limited scale and only using domestically produced weapons, in contrast to the attacks conducted by Russia.

    What is different in the most recent announcement is the lifting of restrictions on what can be targeted with weapons provided by western allies, rather than those domestically produced by the Ukrainian defence industry. This is an extension of an initial lifting of restrictions in late 2024
     by the US and UK, further broadening the targets that can be attacked.

    But the relaxation of these restrictions could be reversed very quickly if Ukraine launches large-scale strikes against civilian populations – which could generate highly adverse publicity for Ukraine and the countries that supplied the weapons.

    Russia’s targeting of Kyiv in recent weeks has been bitterly criticised by the US president, Donald Trump, who posted on his TruthSocial website recently: “[Vladimir Putin] has gone absolutely crazy. Needlessly killing a lot of people.”

    But Kyiv’s allies will also be wary of how Russia may react. Russia has always threatened dire consequences if Ukraine uses western-supplied weapons to launch attacks within Russia.

    Indeed, the political ramifications of the lifting of restrictions are likely to be more consequential than the military outcomes – for now, at least.

    Matthew Powell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kyiv’s allies have lifted restrictions on Ukraine attacking targets inside Russia – here’s what that means for the war – https://theconversation.com/kyivs-allies-have-lifted-restrictions-on-ukraine-attacking-targets-inside-russia-heres-what-that-means-for-the-war-257841

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US labels QRIS a trade barrier – what’s next for Indonesia’s digital payment system?

    Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Farhan Mutaqin, PhD Researcher, University of Edinburgh

    The United States has recently called out Indonesia’s national digital payment system QRIS (Quick Response Code Indonesian Standard) for being unfair. The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) assessed QRIS as a trade barrier in its the National Trade Estimate Report 2025. The report – which includes broader trade concerns – underpins the Trump administration’s plan to impose 32% tariff duty for Indonesian products as of July 2025.

    QRIS synchronises Indonesia’s electronic money payments, digital wallets, and mobile banking into one national standard system. By scanning a QR code, payment takes only a matter of seconds, allowing a swift cashless transaction compared to using cards.

    USTR report criticises how QRIS implementation limits access for international stakeholders — particularly US companies — and creates an imbalance in Indonesia’s digital payments market.

    The report also cites Indonesia’s National Payment Gateway (GPN) as less transparent and limits foreign ownership. The card, which is for domestic use only, eases administrative financial burdens, encourages cashless payment and facilitate social disbursement of social assistance.

    Putting the trade assessment aside, QRIS helps small businesses and low-income groups in Indonesia to access modern payment facilities, closing the gap that Visa and Mastercard cannot provide. Throughout 2024, more than 30 million small businesses and merchants across Indonesia have made transactions via QRIS.

    Here are what readers need to know about QRIS and what may come for Indonesia after its labelling as a trade barrier.

    How significant is QRIS?

    QRIS transaction value and popularity have skyrocketed since the central bank, Bank Indonesia, introduced it to the market in August 2019, months away before COVID-19 entered Indonesia. Throughout 2024 QRIS has recorded 2.2 billion transactions with a total value of Rp 242 trillion (around US$14.9 billion). This figure increased by 188% compared to the previous year.

    In the first quarter of 2025, Bank Indonesia’s latest report noted that QRIS transactions surged to 2.6 billion with a transaction value reaching Rp 262 trillion (US$16 billion).

    So, why does QRIS have such a huge reputation?

    Massive digital adoption and user convenience factors triggered its growth, contributing to financial inclusion and supporting the growth and productivity of the Indonesian economy.

    According to 2024 survey, the main reasons Indonesians use QRIS are its simplicity (49%) and transaction speed (42%). Promotion factors (33%) and the habit of not carrying cash (28%) also add to its appeal.

    Wide outlet coverage (23%) and perceived security (22%) are also factors causing QRIS to be increasingly in demand. This practicality and growing digital habits in Indonesia are the main drivers of QRIS adoption.

    From the merchant’s perspective, QRIS has advantages over card payments. The card system requires expensive EDC machines that cost Rp 3–5 million (US$180-310) per device.

    Meanwhile, the merchant can receive payments via QRIS with just a single printed QR code, without needing extra equipment. QRIS transaction fees are also much lower at around 0.3% of transactions (even 0% for micro merchants), compared to 2–3% on cards.

    QRIS is also compatible with all Indonesian and most of ASEAN countries e-wallets.

    According to the Indonesian Payment System Association QRIS has become “the king of digital payment” channels for local transactions. Meanwhile, Visa–Mastercard’s position remains dominant for cross-border payments.

    Risk of QRIS blocking

    The USTR claims developed without input from international stakeholders may serve as an empty accusation.

    Bank Indonesia designed QRIS to meet domestic needs while aligning with international standards like EMVCo standards carried by Europay, Mastercard, and Visa (EMV). The three global payment giants are also members of Indonesian Payment System Association and were involved in QRIS drafting process, accompanying the government and the central bank. Given how strictly regulated digital payment systems are, it’s hard to believe the US lacks information about QRIS.

    However, the label of “trade barriers” has already been attached by the US and could ruin Indonesia’s negotiation process with other countries.

    First, this issue could potentially hamper QRIS adoption in other countries. While Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand have already facilitated QRIS into their national payment systems, further expansion into India and South Korea could be hampered by concerns about creating friction with Washington.

    Second, the classification of QRIS as a trade barrier could also hinder the expansion of Indonesian small businesses into overseas markets. In fact, this standard was designed so that micro and small business actors can speed up the transaction process, including cross-border transactions with foreign buyers.

    Advantage or disadvantage?

    Both. It brings opportunities and challenges. The impact of USTR claim for Indonesia will depend largely on its negotiating strategy in the coming terms.

    For now, the 32%-tariff sanction – affecting products from shoes, textiles, to nickel components – has been suspended until early July 2025. The two countries are continuing negotiations, including technical discussions on QRIS access since the US complaint aired.

    But Indonesia can turn the US protest into an opportunity. The threat of tariffs forced the two countries into a two-month negotiation window.

    Indonesia could trade off small adjustments to QRIS rules for larger rewards —such as lower tariffs on nickel products or new investment commitments from the US, especially in the fields of technology or the latest financial systems.

    At least, Bank Indonesia has stated that “If America is ready, we are ready,” – a nod for possibility to prepare clearer guidelines for both countries. Arranging such documents will benefit all parties, including foreign and local business.

    At last, Indonesia needs to share the success story of QRIS more widely. Currently, QRIS has served 56 million users, supports payments at more than 33 million outlets, and is seamlessly connected to several countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. This shows that the payment system is open, beneficial, and contributes to financial integration across countries and regions.

    QRIS’s rapid growth, along with how the US feels threatened by it, shows huge potential for Indonesia’s digital finance. This can actually contribute to its bargaining position in the international arena in this digital era.

    This article was originally published in Indonesian, translated into English with the help of machine translator and further edited by human editors.

    Para penulis tidak bekerja, menjadi konsultan, memiliki saham atau menerima dana dari perusahaan atau organisasi mana pun yang akan mengambil untung dari artikel ini, dan telah mengungkapkan bahwa ia tidak memiliki afiliasi di luar afiliasi akademis yang telah disebut di atas.

    – ref. US labels QRIS a trade barrier – what’s next for Indonesia’s digital payment system? – https://theconversation.com/us-labels-qris-a-trade-barrier-whats-next-for-indonesias-digital-payment-system-257616

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How seaweed is a powerful, yet surprising, climate solution

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mike Allen, Associate Professor of Single Cell Genomics, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter

    Picture a place at the centre of a global seaweed revolution. I’ll bet the small English seaside town of Paignton in south Devon is not what comes to mind. A decade ago, I moved from the edge of Dartmoor to the coast. It was about a simple change in work-life balance, but what followed was more surprising.

    The kids were four and seven. I’d always tried to inspire them with my scientific research. Moving to Paignton and walking along Broadsands beach one day, I started noticing piles of seaweed.

    I’d spent my entire professional career researching microalgae (microscopic marine plants) but knew next-to-nothing about their bigger macroalgal cousins, the seaweeds. This felt like an opportunity to have some fun and for all of us to learn together.

    So I bought us a seaweed guidebook, some stickers and set the Allen family the task of finding ten different seaweeds on our local beach. We’d mark a page with a sticker when we found it – the ultimate scientific reward chart. A few weeks later, we’d found 30 and exhausted our sticker sheet.

    I was amazed at the diversity that I had never previously noticed. The colours, the textures, the structures – it was like I’d never really seen seaweed properly before. The professional scientist in me kicked in.

    My kids and I started taking samples home. I built the kids a lab in a lean-to on the back of the house. We dried them out and put them in little jam jars, akin to a seaweed spice rack. It got me thinking of useful or sustainable things I could do with them.

    One day, I posted a picture of these jars on Twitter, with the hashtag #SeaweedApothecary. It started something I could never have predicted.

    Seaweed has an astonishing number of uses. It can be used to produce biofuels and fertilisers, foods such as laverbread, nori sheets for sushi and crisps, cosmetics and toothpaste, pharmaceuticals and food supplements like omega-3. I’d also been incorporating seaweed in my day-to-day research at the University of Exeter, trying to convert it into a biofuel.

    Then, my colleagues in the broader academic and industrial science community started asking for samples. Like me, they’d been ignoring seaweed too – until they saw my social media posts and realised the potential.

    The kids (now both teenagers) are acknowledged on at least a dozen scientific research articles and have continued to help me unlock the potential of seaweed. We’ve done degradation experiments in the raised beds in our garden, tested different seaweeds as feeds for a friend’s chickens, trialled them as fertilisers for our tomatoes – even mixed dried seaweed powder in with cement, to see if it can be used as a structural material filler. All fun, simple science that anyone can do at home.


    Local science, global stories.

    This article is part of a series, Secrets of the Sea, exploring how marine scientists are developing climate solutions.

    In collaboration with the BBC, Anna Turns travels around the West Country coastline to meet ocean experts making exciting discoveries beneath the waves.

    Swamped by sargassum

    Then came a call from a Mexican friend, asking me to take a look at a seaweed problem. Every year, Caribbean islands and Mexican coasts are inundated with 30-40 million tonnes of floating sargassum seaweed washing ashore.

    Rotting sargassum causes ecological and economical devastation, destroying livelihoods and the environment. I started converting it into fuels and fertilisers, trying to turn a massive problem into a positive opportunity. Ten years on, I’d become a seaweed expert.

    Paddy Estridge and Mike Allen in Puerto Morelos, Mexico, surveying potential sites to monitor seaweed blooms.
    Mike Allen, CC BY-NC-ND

    I was asked to do a podcast on the subject. The presenter, Paddy Estridge, and I chatted about seaweed’s problems, opportunities and potential – and by the end of it, we were both pretty inspired. Together, we founded a company called SeaGen to harness the power of seaweed using autonomous robotics that can seed, cultivate, monitor and harvest it.

    Seaweed holds huge potential to create a more sustainable future. But at the moment, this industry lacks the ability to safely seed, grow, monitor, harvest and process seaweed at scale. Solving these challenges is what SeaGen is all about. We’re designing a suite of automated robotic solutions to make abundant, sustainable supply an economic reality.

    Our mission is a long way from those initial experiments with the kids, but the joy and pursuit of knowledge remains the same. The sticker chart perhaps holds less appeal to teenagers, but we’ve nearly hit 70 different species and I’m always on the look out for the next.

    Those initial seaweed samples paved the way for a whole new aspect to my research portfolio, led to millions of pounds in grant funding, and the creation of a company employing a dozen people. Now, I’m part of a global seaweed and robotics revolution.

    Not a bad outcome from a walk along the beach.

    Listen to episode two of Secrets of the Sea here on BBC Sounds, presented by Anna Turns for The Conversation.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Mike Allen works for Exeter University and is Cofounder and Chief Scientific Officer for Seaweed Generation Ltd (SeaGen). He currently receives funding from Innovate UK, Natural Environment Research Council, Natural England, Natural Resources Wales, The Leverhulme Trust, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council.

    – ref. How seaweed is a powerful, yet surprising, climate solution – https://theconversation.com/how-seaweed-is-a-powerful-yet-surprising-climate-solution-251195

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Veterans’ protests planned for D-Day latest in nearly 250 years of fighting for their benefits

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jamie Rowen, Associate Professor of Legal Studies and Political Science, UMass Amherst

    The Bonus Army demonstration at the U.S. Capitol on July 2, 1932. Underwood and Underwood, via Library of Congress

    Veterans across the United States will gather on June 6, 2025, to protest the Trump administration’s cuts to the Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as the slashing of staff and programs throughout the government. Veteran-led protests will be held at the National Mall, 16 state capitol buildings and over 100 other venues across 43 states.

    Veterans are disproportionately affected by federal cuts, in part because they make up only 6.1% of the U.S. population but, because of “veterans preference” in federal hiring, they compose 24% of the 3 million federal workers facing mass layoffs under the Trump administration.

    Veterans also depend on comprehensive, free, federally funded health care through VA clinics throughout the country. But that care is deteriorating due to cuts, rule changes and return-to-work policies that make it impossible for many VA workers to effectively provide care.

    Looming cuts to the VA may cause an irreversible blow if the VA stops providing comprehensive care to veterans and, instead, pushes veterans into seeing doctors in private practice.

    This is not the first time that veterans have engaged in mass mobilization. Veterans groups in the U.S. have successfully mobilized for centuries, crossing traditional political divisions such as race, class and gender. They are powerful messengers, and their actions in the past have helped secure back pay and pensions for veterans, a Social Security and welfare system for U.S. civilians, and foreign policy changes to end wars abroad.

    I’m a scholar of law, social movements and veterans benefits. Here’s a brief history of veterans’ campaigns that illustrates how veterans developed their political clout and effectively advocated to protect themselves, and many others, from harmful federal policies.

    Veterans are an important political constituency. On Nov. 7, 1932 – the day before Election Day – Franklin D. Roosevelt, the New York governor running for president, visited the veterans hospital at Castle Point, near Beacon, N.Y.
    Bettman/Getty Images

    Fighting for pensions

    Veterans were not always politically popular, nor were they treated well by the federal government.

    After the Revolutionary War ended in 1783, Gen. George Washington lobbied Congress to offer lifetime half-pay to officers who served until the end of the war. Given the federal government’s financial precariousness at the end of the war, this effort failed. Veterans were unable to successfully mobilize to advocate for the pensions, given their small numbers and internal divisions between more privileged officers and less privileged soldiers.

    During the Civil War, Congress passed numerous laws designed to support veterans. The 1862 pension law allocated payouts in proportion to a soldier’s permanent bodily injury or disability caused by their service. The benefits were generous in comparison with prior allocations, and more veterans began applying for them.

    Yet, by 1875 only 6.5% of veterans had signed up for pensions. Veterans began to organize to increase awareness about these benefits and to lobby for more.

    The Grand Army of the Republic became a leading veterans organization that demanded better pension and disability benefits. At the end of the 1800s, earning veterans’ votes became a priority for aspiring politicians. The Grand Army of the Republic directly lobbied Congress to pass bills expanding veterans pensions, one of which Democratic President Grover Cleveland vetoed in 1887.

    The organization then successfully mobilized its members to vote against Cleveland in the 1888 election, securing victory for presidential candidate William Henry Harrison and for Republicans in both houses of Congress. This secured the 1890 Arrears Act, which expanded veterans’ pensions and disability payments.

    By the turn of the 19th century, over 40% of federal expenditures went to veterans.

    Getting back pay

    As more veterans returned in 1898 from fighting in the Spanish-American War, and with a huge influx of veterans 20 years later from World War I, veterans mobilized to streamline and expand pension and disability benefits.

    In the 1920s, the two most prominent veterans organizations, the American Legion and Veterans of Foreign Wars, or VFW, formed a national legislative committee dedicated to lobbying for improved benefits. Each group boasted thousands of members whom they could call on to “barrage”– a veterans term – congressmen with letters. By 1929, even as the federal budget ballooned, veterans benefits still represented 20% of the total federal budget.

    The 1924 “Bonus Act,” which Congress passed after overruling Calvin Coolidge’s presidential veto, offered WWI veterans a deferred “bonus” payment available in 1945. But veterans suffered immensely in the Great Depression, along with the rest of the country.

    Veterans tried a new campaign tactic in 1932, creating the “Bonus Expeditionary Forces,” or “Bonus Army,” march on Washington, D.C., to demand their promised pay be delivered sooner.

    Over the course of three months, from May through July 1932, 40,000 veterans set up encampments throughout the city. During their stay, they crowded congressional galleries and plazas during debates on the bill. When President Herbert Hoover called on the military to disband the encampments, he set himself up for electoral defeat later that year.

    It took another four years for Congress to pass a law offering an immediate payout, but the veterans got their bonuses in 1936, not 1945.

    Campaigning to prevent cuts

    Building from public support bolstered by the Bonus Army march, veterans fought publicly to protect their benefits in the Great Depression.

    In 1933, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt sought to cut veterans’ benefits to help finance other relief programs during the Depression, but veterans successfully lobbied Congress to rescind the cuts.

    A 1933 VFW encampment in Milwaukee attracted 10,000 veterans who openly decried Roosevelt’s economic policies. The event featured left-wing Louisiana populist Sen. Huey P. Long and former Marine turned anti-Wall Street populist Smedley Butler.

    The U.S. entered World War II in December 1941. To avoid another spectacle, FDR began developing a compensation program for World War II veterans even before the war’s end. During debates about these expenditures, veterans activism helped ensure the generous educational, housing and vocational benefits from the so-called GI Bill developed by FDR, and the soldier vote helped secure FDR’s fourth-term election in 1944.

    Scholars credit the GI Bill with creating a booming U.S. economy from the 1950s through the 1970s and creating the contemporary middle class, an economic and social group now shrinking and under threat.

    Beyond benefits

    Vietnam veterans hold a silent march down Pennsylvania Avenue past the White House on April 22, 1971, to protest the Vietnam War.
    Bettman/Getty Images

    After World War II, veterans’ mobilization expanded from a focus on benefits to foreign policy.

    Most famously, after its founding in 1967, Vietnam Veterans Against the War engaged in street theater and gathered testimonies about U.S. military abuses to condemn the U.S. government for violence against the Vietnamese.

    Vietnam Veterans Against the War helped organized a four-day protest in 1971 in Washington, D.C., including camping on the National Mall. The organization continued to mobilize in more traditional ways, drafting congressional legislation for benefits and promoting investment in psychological support for Vietnam veterans.

    Veterans have continued to protest wars, particularly the Iraq War, engaging in street protests and also through mainstream politics such as elections and television advertising.

    Given their experiences, veterans today know what they are standing up for on June 6: their own freedom and prosperity, as well as the country’s and the world’s.

    Jamie Rowen receives funding from National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Veterans’ protests planned for D-Day latest in nearly 250 years of fighting for their benefits – https://theconversation.com/veterans-protests-planned-for-d-day-latest-in-nearly-250-years-of-fighting-for-their-benefits-255346

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: One lawsuit just helped melt the fossil fuel industry’s defence against being held accountable for climate change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Benjamin Franta, Associate Professor of Climate Litigation, University of Oxford

    There was a time when oil and gas companies happily linked themselves to the idea of planet-wide environmental changes. “Each day Humble supplies enough energy to melt 7 million tons of glacier!” boasts the headline from a 1962 double-page spread in Life magazine for Humble Oil, now part of ExxonMobil.

    Fast forward 60 years and that advert takes on a prophetic quality. Millions of people have experienced first-hand the tragic consequences of how burning fossil fuels is overheating our planet beyond recognition. Not just by melting glaciers but fuelling storms, fires and floods.

    The fossil fuel industry today would never dream of linking its activities to melting glaciers. Instead, it actively denies responsibility for the consequences of extracting and selling some of the most harmful products ever known to humanity.

    For the decades we have known about climate science, this narrative has been core to how the fossil fuel industry maintains its social legitimacy: that the industry is not responsible for climate change, but everyone else is through their individual actions.

    Yet a ten-year climate lawsuit brought by a Peruvian farmer and mountain guide has challenged this narrative. In March this year, Saúl Luciano Lliuya’s case against the European coal-giant RWE was heard in a regional court in Germany.

    And while the court has now dismissed Lliuya’s specific claim – finding the flood risk to Lliuya’s particular property is not yet sufficiently great – it did confirm that private companies can in principle be held liable for their share in causing climate damages. This finding has major ramifications for the wider legal battle to make fossil fuel companies accountable.

    Farmer vs coal giant

    Lliuya lives in Huaraz, a city in the foothills of the Peruvian Andes. He and the 120,000 residents of this city live in constant danger. The melting glaciers caused by climate change are causing the water levels in Lake Palcacocha above their home to rise. Peru’s disaster management agency warns that a flood could occur at any moment.

    Huaraz is one of many cities in the Andes at risk of flooding as temperatures rise and glaciers melt.
    Christian Vinces / shutterstock

    For Lliuya, it is not a matter of if but when – and how bad the flood will be.

    He therefore embarked on his lawsuit against RWE with this simple premise: as one of the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters, it should help pay for flood defences to protect Hauraz. The total cost of a new dam would have been US$4 million (£3 million), and Lliuya was demanding that RWE pay 0.47% of that total, which is US$20,000.

    This proportional amount was based on a calculation of RWE’s contribution to historical global greenhouse gas emissions – most of which have occurred since the 1990s, long after fossil fuel companies were aware their products would cause dangerous climate change.

    RWE’s revenues are measured in the tens of billions. It could have accepted Lliuya’s request and paid for not just its share of the cost, but the full cost of flood defences for Huaraz. Yet the company fought tooth and nail to prevent the case getting as far as it did.

    When asked by the court much earlier in the process if it would be willing to settle, the company’s lawyers declined, revealing exactly what was at stake: “This is a matter of precedent.”

    On May 28 2025, the court ruled that the flood risk to Lliuya’s home was not sufficiently high to uphold his specific claim. However, its confirmation of the principle that private companies can be held liable for climate damage shows that RWE was, in fact, correct to fear the precedent that Lliuya’s case has now helped set.

    Liability – across national borders

    Despite RWE’s attempts to argue otherwise, the case’s outcome has far-reaching implications that could shape similar cases in countries such as Switzerland and Belgium, and which may be relevant for other jurisdictions including the UK, Netherlands, US and Japan.

    Crucially, the case confirms that proportional liability for climate harm is legally possible, even across national borders. And this will still remain a possibility, even if a higher court overrules the German district court in favour of the fossil fuel companies.

    Why does this matter so much to RWE and other fossil fuel companies, who argue time and again in court that they should not be held responsible?

    For years, fossil fuel companies have operated as if they would not be held responsible for the emissions from their products. But as the world continues to warm, the harmful impacts of climate change and extreme weather will only intensify, resulting in mounting costs – both those we can calculate, such as damage to infrastructure, and those we cannot, like the loss of our loved ones.

    With the growing number and accuracy of climate science attribution studies, legal pressure on companies to contribute to climate costs is likely to keep growing.

    And when you consider that the legal basis for this “polluter pays” principle exists in a similar form in at least 50 nations around the world, then the scale of liability facing the industry becomes clear.

    More examples are already emerging. In 2024, a Belgian farmer filed a lawsuit against French fossil fuel major TotalEnergies, seeking compensation for damage to his farm as a result of extreme weather.

    In 2022, four residents of Pari island, Indonesia, started legal proceedings in Switzerland against the Swiss cement firm Holcim. The residents are seeking a 43% reduction in Holcim’s carbon emissions by 2030, and around US$4,000 in compensation each for damages caused by flooding.

    Since 2017, dozens of cities, counties and states across the US have sued fossil fuel producers for climate change-related damages and adaptation costs, potentially totalling trillions of dollars – pointing to the industry’s increasingly well-documented historical and ongoing deceptions about climate change.

    And policymakers across countries including the US, the Philippines and Pakistan are working to enact laws that would directly hold polluting companies financially responsible for climate damages.

    The new ruling in Germany provides a shot in the arm to all these cases, and the future suits yet to be filed. Perhaps most consequentially of all, public opinion is hardening: growing numbers of people understand that the fossil fuel industry is responsible for climate change, and lawsuits to compel big carbon to pay for climate damages enjoy widespread public support.

    When Lliuya launched his case nearly a decade ago, the idea of linking an individual corporation to the impacts of its emissions seemed implausible to some. Yet scientific research now makes it possible to link the emissions of individual companies to particular, quantifiable damages caused by climate change.

    This, coupled with the German court’s ruling, makes it increasingly clear that the fossil fuel industry’s longstanding deflection of responsibility for planetary warming is doomed to melt away.



    Read more:
    A Peruvian farmer is trying to hold energy giant RWE responsible for climate change – the inside story of his groundbreaking court case

    Benjamin Franta has served as a consulting expert for various climate-related lawsuits. His research has received funding from foundations in the environment and climate space.

    – ref. One lawsuit just helped melt the fossil fuel industry’s defence against being held accountable for climate change – https://theconversation.com/one-lawsuit-just-helped-melt-the-fossil-fuel-industrys-defence-against-being-held-accountable-for-climate-change-257840

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Soaring rice prices are stirring political trouble in Japan – history shows this often leads to a change of government

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ming Gao, Research Scholar of East Asia Studies, Lund University

    Japan’s agriculture minister, Taku Etō, resigned on May 21 just six months into his term, following a public backlash to his joke that he never buys rice because supporters give it to him for free.

    Gaffes are by no means uncommon in Japanese politics. Controversial remarks by one former prime minister, Tarō Asō, were routinely followed by retractions – and the ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) even distributed a gaffe-prevention manual to its members in 2019.

    But amid a severe rice shortage, which has seen prices surge to 90% higher than they were a year ago, Etō’s quip was seen by the Japanese public as more than just an offhand comment.

    Rice has been a significant part of life in Japan for nearly 3,000 years. This deep connection is reflected in the Japanese word gohan, which means “cooked rice” but is often used simply to refer to a “meal”. Rice has also shaped the foundations of Japanese cuisine and farming culture.

    Such is the importance of rice to Japanese people that a spike in prices in 1918 led to a nationwide wave of protest. The so-called “rice riots” forced the then prime minister, Terauchi Masatake, to resign.

    However, despite its obvious importance, Japanese government policy in recent decades has been focused on tightly controlling and regulating the production of rice. It has endeavoured to keep prices high, partly to reward farmers who are an important support base for the LDP.

    This means consumers have paid a premium, contributing to a downward trend in rice consumption alongside other factors such as dietary diversification. By 2022, annual rice consumption in Japan had fallen to 51kg per person, less than half of what it was at its 1962 peak. In this context, the public reaction to Etō’s comment was understandable.

    Japan’s current prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, initially seemed prepared to weather the storm, advising Etō to retract his “problematic” remarks and remain in his post. But with elections approaching in July and Ishiba’s approval rating sinking to a record low of 21%, his administration was left with little choice and Etō ultimately resigned.

    The rice crisis has emerged as one of the defining issues of the upcoming election, which will determine whether Ishiba’s ruling coalition can secure a majority in the upper house of parliament. Having already lost its majority in the lower house in October 2024, the government may be set for another crushing defeat at the polls.

    Japan’s rice crisis

    A few factors have combined over the past year to cause rice prices to increase unexpectedly. Japan’s hottest September in 125 years resulted in poor harvests, while government warnings that a major earthquake off the country’s Pacific coast could be imminent triggered panic buying. The agriculture ministry also says that a surge in inbound tourism contributed to a sudden rise in rice consumption.

    However, the rice crisis is not fundamentally the result of climate volatility or increased demand. It is the product of decades of self-defeating agricultural policy that has prioritised institutional interests over national food security.

    Rice production caps, which were introduced in 1971 to control supply and prices, have never been fully dismantled even as domestic consumption has changed and the farming population decreased. This artificial control of output has left the country ill-prepared for demand surges.

    Compounding these issues are entrenched protectionist measures designed to shield small-scale rice farmers through high tariffs and rigid distribution systems. These distortions have prioritised institutional stability and political patronage over food security reform, leaving Japan increasingly vulnerable in an era of climate disruption and supply chain instability.

    Having struggled with low wages for years, many sectors of Japan’s population are now grappling with inflation. The government has dug into its emergency rice reserves in an attempt to alleviate the problem, but the grain has been slow to reach supermarket shelves. And some farmers, increasingly frustrated by regulations limiting how much rice they can grow, have even organised demonstrations.

    Under current conditions, imported rice is becoming an unavoidable fallback. Japan is importing rice from South Korea for the first time in over 25 years, while Japanese tourists are reportedly filling their suitcases with Korean rice – despite deep-seated scepticism toward anything not domestically grown.

    Political change looming?

    With rice prices soaring and public discontent mounting, this beloved everyday grain is once again at the centre of Japanese politics – just as it was more than a century ago during the 1918 rice riots.

    Despite the complexities of modern economies, connected to global systems of market exchange, Japanese consumers understand that government policies have played an oversized role in creating the current crisis. It is largely policy that has kept their wages low and failed to rein in inflation.

    Consumers are also keenly aware that the LDP’s rice policy has worked to protect its critical agricultural support base, a situation strongly reflected in Etō’s joke.

    As the government scrambles to get its house in order and put more affordable rice back on the table, a deeper reflection of the past seems advisable. Historical precedents, such as the 1918 riots, suggest that strong public distrust of a government’s rice policy results in profound political change.

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    Timothy Amos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Soaring rice prices are stirring political trouble in Japan – history shows this often leads to a change of government – https://theconversation.com/soaring-rice-prices-are-stirring-political-trouble-in-japan-history-shows-this-often-leads-to-a-change-of-government-257490

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Coffee can interfere with your medication – here’s what you need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

    Studio Neeby/Shutterstock

    For many of us, the day doesn’t start until we’ve had our first cup of coffee. It’s comforting, energising, and one of the most widely consumed beverages in the world. But while your morning brew might feel harmless, it can interact with certain medicines in ways that reduce their effectiveness – or increase the risk of side-effects.

    From common cold tablets to antidepressants, caffeine’s impact on the body goes far beyond a quick energy boost. Tea also contains caffeine but not in the same concentrations as coffee, and doesn’t seem to affect people in the same way. Here’s what you should know about how coffee can interfere with your medications – and how to stay safe.

    1. Cold and flu medicines

    Caffeine is a stimulant, which means it speeds up the central nervous system. Pseudoephedrine, a decongestant found in cold and flu remedies such as Sudafed, is also a stimulant. When taken together, the effects can be amplified – potentially leading to jitters or restlessness, headaches, fast heart rate and insomnia.

    Many cold medications already contain added caffeine, increasing these risks further. Some studies also suggest that combining caffeine with pseudoephedrine can raise blood sugar and body temperature – particularly important for people with diabetes.

    Stimulant effects are also a concern when combining caffeine with ADHD medications such as amphetamines, or with asthma drugs such as theophylline, which shares a similar chemical structure to caffeine. Using them together may increase the risk of side-effects such as a rapid heartbeat and sleep disruption.

    2. Thyroid medication

    Levothyroxine, the standard treatment for an underactive thyroid, is highly sensitive to timing – and your morning coffee can get in the way. Studies show that drinking coffee too soon after taking levothyroxine can reduce its absorption by up to 50%.

    Caffeine speeds up gut motility (the movement of food and waste through the digestive tract), giving the drug less time to be absorbed – and may also bind to it in the stomach, making it harder for the body to take in. These effects reduce the drug’s bioavailability, meaning less of it reaches your bloodstream where it’s needed. This interaction is more common with tablet forms of levothyroxine, and less likely with liquid formulations.

    If absorption is impaired, symptoms of hypothyroidism – including fatigue, weight gain and constipation – can return, even if you’re taking your medicine correctly.

    The same timing rule applies to a class of osteoporosis medications called bisphosphonates, including alendronate and risedronate, which also require an empty stomach and around 30-60 minutes before food or drink is taken.

    3. Antidepressants and antipsychotics

    The interaction between caffeine and mental health medications can be more complex.

    Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), such as sertraline and citalopram, are a type of antidepressant medication widely used to treat depression, anxiety and other psychiatric conditions. Lab studies suggest caffeine can bind to these drugs in the stomach, reducing absorption and potentially making them less effective.

    Tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs), such as amitriptyline and imipramine, are a class of older antidepressants that work by affecting the levels of neurotransmitters in the brain. They were among the first antidepressants developed and are less commonly used today, compared with newer antidepressants such as SSRIs, due to their potential for more side-effects and higher risk of overdose.

    TCAs are broken down by the liver enzyme CYP1A2, which also metabolises caffeine. The competition between the two can slow drug breakdown, increasing side-effects, or delay caffeine clearance, making you feel jittery or wired longer than usual.

    Clozapine, an antipsychotic, is also processed by CYP1A2. One study showed that drinking two-to-three cups of coffee could increase blood levels of clozapine by up to 97%, potentially increasing risks such as drowsiness, confusion, or more serious complications.

    4. Painkillers

    Some over-the-counter painkillers, such as those containing aspirin or paracetamol, include added caffeine. Coffee can speed up how quickly these drugs are absorbed by accelerating how fast the stomach empties and making the stomach more acidic, which improves absorption for some medications such as aspirin.

    While this may help painkillers work faster, it could also raise the risk of side-effects like stomach irritation or bleeding, especially when combined with other sources of caffeine. Though no serious cases have been reported, caution is still advised.

    5. Heart medications

    Caffeine can temporarily raise blood pressure and heart rate, typically lasting three-to-four hours after consumption. For people taking blood pressure medication or drugs that control irregular heart rhythms (arrhythmias), this may counteract the intended effects of the medication.

    This doesn’t mean people with heart conditions must avoid coffee altogether – but they should monitor how it affects their symptoms, and consider limiting intake or switching to decaf if needed.

    What can you do?

    Coffee may be part of your daily routine, but it’s also a potent chemical compound that can influence how your body processes medicine. Here’s how to make sure it doesn’t interfere.

    Take levothyroxine or bisphosphonates on an empty stomach with water, and wait 30-60 minutes before drinking coffee or eating breakfast.

    Be cautious with cold and flu remedies, asthma treatments and ADHD medications, as caffeine can amplify side-effects.

    If you’re on antidepressants, antipsychotics, or blood pressure drugs, discuss your caffeine habits with your doctor.

    Consider reducing intake or choosing a decaffeinated option if you experience side-effects like restlessness, insomnia or heart palpitations.

    Everyone metabolises caffeine differently – some people feel fine after three cups, while others get side-effects after just one. Pay attention to how your body responds and talk to your pharmacist or GP if anything feels off.

    If you’re ever unsure whether your medicine and your coffee are a good match, ask your pharmacist or doctor. A short conversation might save you weeks of side-effects or reduced treatment effectiveness – and help you enjoy your brew with peace of mind.

    Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Coffee can interfere with your medication – here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/coffee-can-interfere-with-your-medication-heres-what-you-need-to-know-256919

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Neurosymbolic AI is the answer to large language models’ inability to stop hallucinating

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Artur Garcez, Professor of Computer Science, City St George’s, University of London

    Down with endless data. Alexander Supertramp

    The main problem with big tech’s experiment with artificial intelligence (AI) is not that it could take over humanity. It’s that large language models (LLMs) like Open AI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Meta’s Llama continue to get things wrong, and the problem is intractable.

    Known as hallucinations, the most prominent example was perhaps the case of US law professor Jonathan Turley, who was falsely accused of sexual harassment by ChatGPT in 2023.

    OpenAI’s solution seems to have been to basically “disappear” Turley by programming ChatGPT to say it can’t respond to questions about him, which is clearly not a fair or satisfactory solution. Trying to solve hallucinations after the event and case by case is clearly not the way to go.

    The same can be said of LLMs amplifying stereotypes or giving western-centric answers. There’s also a total lack of accountability in the face of this widespread misinformation, since it’s difficult to ascertain how the LLM reached this conclusion in the first place.

    We saw a fierce debate about these problems after the 2023 release of GPT-4, the most recent major paradigm in OpenAI’s LLM development. Arguably the debate has cooled since then, though without justification.

    The EU passed its AI Act in record time in 2024, for instance, in a bid to be world leader in overseeing this field. But the act relies heavily on AI companies to regulate themselves without really addressing the issues in question. It hasn’t stopped tech companies from releasing LLMs worldwide to hundreds of millions of users and collecting their data without proper scrutiny.

    Meanwhile, the latest tests indicate that even the most sophisticated LLMs remain unreliable. Despite this, the leading AI companies still resist taking responsibility for errors.

    Unfortunately LLMs’ tendencies to misinform and reproduce bias can’t be solved with gradual improvements over time. And with the advent of agentic AI, where users will soon be able to assign projects to an LLM such as, say, booking their holiday or optimising the payment of all their bills each month, the potential for trouble is set to multiply.

    The emerging field of neurosymbolic AI could solve these issues, while also reducing the enormous amounts of data required for training LLMs. So what is neurosymbolic AI and how does it work?

    The LLM problem

    LLMs work using a technique called deep learning, where they are given vast amounts of text data and use advanced statistics to infer patterns that determine what the next word or phrase in any given response should be. The models – along with all the patterns it has learned – are stored in arrays of powerful computers in large data centres known as neural networks.

    LLMs can appear to reason using a process called chain-of-thought, where they generate multi-step responses that mimic how humans might logically arrive at a conclusion, based on patterns seen in the training data.

    Undoubtedly, LLMs are a great engineering achievement. They are impressive at summarising text and translating, and may improve the productivity of those diligent and knowledgeable enough to spot their mistakes. Nevertheless they have great potential to mislead because their conclusions are always based on probabilities – not understanding.

    Misinformation in, misinformation out.
    Collagery

    A popular workaround is called “human-in-the-loop”: making sure that humans using AIs still make the final decisions. However, apportioning blame to humans does not solve the problem. They’ll still often be misled by misinformation.

    LLMs now need so much training data to advance that we’re now having to feed them synthetic data, meaning data created by LLMs. This data can copy and amplify existing errors from its own source data, such that new models inherit the weaknesses of old ones. As a result, the cost of programming AIs to be more accurate after their training – known as “post-hoc model alignment” – is skyrocketing.

    It also becomes increasingly difficult for programmers to see what’s going wrong because the number of steps in the model’s thought process become ever larger, making it harder and harder to correct for errors.

    Neurosymbolic AI combines the predictive learning of neural networks with teaching the AI a series of formal rules that humans learn to be able to deliberate more reliably. These include logic rules, like “if a then b”, such as “if it’s raining then everything outside is normally wet”; mathematical rules, like “if a = b and b = c then a = c”; and the agreed upon meanings of things like words, diagrams and symbols. Some of these will be inputted directly into the AI system, while it will deduce others itself by analysing its training data and doing “knowledge extraction”.

    This should create an AI that will never hallucinate and will learn faster and smarter by organising its knowledge into clear, reusable parts. For example if the AI has a rule about things being wet outside when it rains, there’s no need for it to retain every example of the things that might be wet outside – the rule can be applied to any new object, even one it has never seen before.

    During model development, neurosymbolic AI also integrates learning and formal reasoning using a process known as the “neurosymbolic cycle”. This involves a partially trained AI extracting rules from its training data then instilling this consolidated knowledge back into the network before further training with data.

    This is more energy efficient because the AI needn’t store as much data, while the AI is more accountable because it’s easier for a user to control how it reaches particular conclusions and improves over time. It’s also fairer because it can be made to follow pre-existing rules, such as: “For any decision made by the AI, the outcome must not depend on a person’s race or gender”.

    The third wave

    The first wave of AI in the 1980s, known as symbolic AI, was actually based on teaching computers formal rules that they could then apply to new information. Deep learning followed as the second wave in the 2010s, and many see neurosymbolic AI as the third.

    It’s easiest to apply neurosymbolic principles to AI in niche areas, because the rules can be clearly defined. So it’s no surprise that we’ve seen it first emerge in Google’s AlphaFold, which predicts protein structures to help with drug discovery; and AlphaGeometry, which solves complex geometry problems.

    For more broad-based AIs, China’s DeepSeek uses a learning technique called “distillation” which is a step in the same direction. But to make neurosymbolic AI fully feasible for general models, there still needs to be more research to refine their ability to discern general rules and perform knowledge extraction.

    It’s unclear to what extent LLM makers are working on this already. They certainly sound like they’re heading in the direction of trying to teach their models to think more cleverly, but they also seem wedded to the need to scale up with ever larger amounts of data.

    The reality is that if AI is going to keep advancing, we will need systems that adapt to novelty from only a few examples, that check their understanding, that can multitask and reuse knowledge to improve data efficiency and that can reason reliably in sophisticated ways.

    This way, well designed digital technology could potentially even offer an alternative to regulation, because the checks and balances would be built into the architecture and perhaps standardised across the industry. There’s a long way to go, but at least there’s a path ahead.

    Artur Garcez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Neurosymbolic AI is the answer to large language models’ inability to stop hallucinating – https://theconversation.com/neurosymbolic-ai-is-the-answer-to-large-language-models-inability-to-stop-hallucinating-257752

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Solar panels’ shade helps boost Colorado grassland productivity in dry years

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Matthew Sturchio, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University; Faculty Afffiliate in Ecology, Colorado State University

    Solar panels on grasslands can generate electricity and useful forage or wildlife habitat. Matthew Sturchio, CC BY-ND

    Grasses growing in the shade of a solar array were only a little less productive than those growing nearby in open grassland during years of average and above-average rainfall – but in a dry year, the shaded plants grew much better than those growing in full sun. That’s the result of a four-year study we conducted in a semi-arid grassland of northern Colorado.

    When choosing a location for generating solar power, consistent sunlight and interconnection to the electric grid are key criteria. In Colorado the combination of new electrical transmission infrastructure, abundant sunlight and short vegetation that is easy to maintain have made grasslands a prime target for solar development.

    Grasslands, like those that dominate the eastern plains of Colorado, provide important habitat for wildlife and serve as a critical food source for livestock. Although these grasslands have long been productive despite their normally arid environment, a warmer climate has increased the potential for more frequent and severe drought. For instance, a recent global study found that previous research likely underestimated the threat of extreme drought in grasslands.

    Semi-arid grassland near Cheyenne, Wyo., with close-ups of flowers of some of the plants that grow there.
    Matthew Sturchio, CC BY-ND

    At Colorado State University, biology professor Alan Knapp and I started the ecovoltaics research group to study the effects of solar development in grasslands. Our primary goal is to ensure an ecologically informed solar energy future.

    Solar panels create microclimates

    Strings of solar panels redirect rain to the edge of panels. Because of this, small rain events can provide biologically relevant amounts of water instead of evaporating quickly.

    Simultaneously, solar panels shade plants growing beneath them. Some arrays, including the ones used in our study, move the panels to follow the path of the Sun across the sky.

    This results in a combination of sun and shade that is very different from the uninterrupted sunlight beating down on plants in a grassland without solar panels. In turn, patterns of plant stress and water loss also differ in grasses under solar arrays.

    A time-lapse video shows how a single-axis tracking solar array at Jack’s Solar Garden modifies patterns of sunlight availability.

    How grasses respond to a solar panel canopy

    To get a handle on how these different conditions affect grasses, we measured plant physiological response during the early stages of our study. More specifically, we tracked leaf carbon and water exchange throughout daylight hours, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., over 16 weeks in summer 2022 at Jack’s Solar Garden, a solar array over grassland in Longmont, Colorado.

    In general, plants that are adapted to full sun conditions, including most grasses, might not be expected to grow as well in partial shade. But we suspected that growth benefits from reduced water stress could outweigh potential reductions in growth from shading. We call this the “aridity mitigation potential” hypothesis.

    Sure enough, we found evidence of aridity mitigation across multiple years, with the most pronounced effect during the driest year.

    When water is scarce, increases in grassland productivity are more valuable because there isn’t as much around. Therefore, increasing grassland production in dry years could provide more available food for grazing animals and help offset some of the economic harm of drought in rangelands.

    Informing sustainable solar development in grasslands

    So far, our research has been limited to a grassland dominated by a cool season grass: smooth brome. Although it is a perennial commonly planted for hay, fields dominated by smooth brome lack the diversity of life found in native grasslands.

    Future work in native shortgrass prairies would provide new information about how solar panels affect plant water use, soils and grazing management in an ecosystem with 30% less precipitation than Jack’s Solar Garden. We’re beginning that work now at the shortgrass ecovoltaic research facility near Nunn, Colorado. This facility, which will be fully operational later in 2025, was constructed with support from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, through the wider SCAPES project.

    Testing the effects of solar panels over grasslands in a native ecosystem with even greater aridity will help us develop a clearer picture of ways solar energy can be developed in concert with grassland health.

    Matthew Sturchio works for Cornell University and serves as a Faculty Affiliate at Colorado State University. Funding for this work came from US Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture Sustainable Agricultural Systems project entitled “Sustainably Co-locating Agricultural and Photovoltaic Electricity Systems,” led by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Grant Number: 2021-68012-35898, 2021–2025.

    – ref. Solar panels’ shade helps boost Colorado grassland productivity in dry years – https://theconversation.com/solar-panels-shade-helps-boost-colorado-grassland-productivity-in-dry-years-257082

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Reform’s threat to the mainstream parties is unique in UK political history

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martin Farr, Senior Lecturer in Contemporary British History, Newcastle University

    Labour’s former shadow chancellor John McDonnell has declared that Keir Starmer’s government has driven “a knife into the heart of what I believed Labour stood for” and called for party members, unions and MPs to take back control.

    The text was McDonnell’s, but the pretext was Nigel Farage. Earlier in the week, the Reform leader moved his tanks on to Labour’s lawn by promising to reverse the government’s withdrawal of winter fuel payments to pensioners, and remove the two-child benefit limit, a week after Starmer had committed the most perilous of political allusions: evoking the language of Enoch Powell over immigration. Starmer has been singed (as was Tony Benn in 1970) by playing with Powell’s incendiarism. The disingenuousness of denials that so irregular a phrase as “an island of strangers” was not Starmer dog-whistling marked another low.

    At the centre of Labour’s dilemma is political mutability; how those most elemental, political categories “right” and “left” have blurred into indistinction. Reform UK were ostensibly of the former – nationalist, individualist, authoritarian – but now parade the sacraments of the latter: nationalisation, collectivism, welfarism.

    Betrayal narratives follow Labour leaders as night does day, but Sir Keir Starmer’s inconstancy and inability to offer mitigation by counter-narrative at least demonstrates his fidelity to his political hero Harold Wilson. His ministers in the 1960s and 1970s despaired at their electorally successful prime minister’s apparent lack of defining principle.

    Of the many issues Reform UK raises, the most intriguing is also the least answerable: individual agency. It will never be known whether Britain would still be in the EU had Farage not survived his 2010 plane crash, but it’s more probable than not. Similarly, had Farage withdrawn, as he promised, from British politics to more lucrative pursuits across the Atlantic, the existential threat to both the Labour government and the Conservative party would have gone with him.

    But Farage stayed – and Reform is now a threat of a different order to his previous vehicles. They were significant – UKIP with Brexit; the Brexit party providing Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory – without being serious. They lacked policies (or even policy processes), professionalism, personnel (UKIP was the only party to ban former members of the BNP because it was the only party to have need to).

    Reform is now at the tipping point – both financially and electorally – of seriousness. It runs councils. It has mayors. Its triumph in the Runcorn by-election demonstrated discipline, and the importance of a sound candidate.



    Read more:
    UK local elections delivered record-breaking fragmentation of the vote

    When parties split

    In their public personas, Farage and Starmer are antitheses; the one glib, the other grave; the one with too much personality, the other too little. But charismatic politicians who “make the weather” can also break the party: Farage most recently and repeatedly. But before him Joseph Chamberlain split the Liberals in 1886 and the Unionists in 1903 and David Lloyd George again split the Liberals in 1916. Oswald Mosley caused chaos for Labour in 1931 and David Owen left Labour in the 1980s to form the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which he also later split.

    In 1981, the SDP achieved (in alliance with the Liberals) a poll surge of the kind currently being enjoyed by Reform. And in the 1983 general election the SDP/Liberal Alliance won only 675,000 fewer votes than Labour. But thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system, the Alliance won 186 fewer seats. Labour’s geographical concentration saved it; the Alliance came second all over the country.

    In 2024, first past the post delivered what its advocates love, and its critics hate: a clear, and unfair, outcome. Labour won two-thirds of the seats on one-third of the votes. It was the most disproportionate result in history.

    Britain’s new multi-party politics may deliver a multi-party parliament at the next election, but through an electoral system designed – insofar as it was designed – for two. With Reform set to breach the 30% threshold, safe seats will be fewer and farther between; marginal seats the norm.

    This would present a challenge for a Labour leader much more nimble than Starmer. His dilemma is devilish: ape Reform and yield urban voters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats; repudiate and see the rebuilt red wall razed. There are other places for progressives to go. Indeed, there may soon be another: a new party of the left. McDonnell – who already sits as an independent, having had the Labour whip withdrawn last year – may see it as a lifeboat.

    Kemi Badenoch – and Robert Jenrick, her most likely usurper – face a strikingly similar problem. Responding to Reform in kind will cede affluent voters to the Liberal Democrats. The Conservative party is the most electorally successful in history in part because it never had a challenger on the right. There’s now another place for conservatives to go. (Or, as it were, to remain.)

    This is the historically unique threat of Reform. In warning of Farage – the most consequential politician since Margaret Thatcher – as a serious threat, Starmer and Badenoch may in overstating augment him, but to not do so is to risk acquiescing. Catastrophising and complacency were evident in 2014, when UKIP came first in the European Parliament elections. Two years later, Britain voted for Brexit.

    Reform still has somewhat less than fully thought-out, never mind fully-funded, policies. Its talent pool is a puddle. It’s now in office and will have a record to defend. It’s dominated by one person, and one who repels as much as he inspires. It’s still unlikely that in five years’ time Farage will be in government, much less prime minister. But it is less unlikely than it was, and is likely to become less unlikely still.

    Martin Farr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Reform’s threat to the mainstream parties is unique in UK political history – https://theconversation.com/reforms-threat-to-the-mainstream-parties-is-unique-in-uk-political-history-257839

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why auction of Buddha relics was called off and why it matters – an expert in Asian art explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen A Murphy, Pratapaditya Pal Senior Lecturer in Curating and Museology of Asian Art, SOAS, University of London

    The slick online catalogue entry for “Premium Lot 1, The Piprahwa Gems of the Historical Buddha” on the Sotheby’s Hong Kong website was abruptly replaced on May 7 with a single line notification: “The auction has been postponed.”

    Shortly afterwards, the associated webpages went blank. The only evidence remaining on Sotheby’s Hong Kong website was an entry on the Piprahwa gems’ history and a short YouTube promotional clip for the sale (below).

    Sotheby’s had first announced its intention to auction the relics on February 6 2025. Discovered in northern India in 1898 and thought to date to the third century BC, it was estimated they would fetch up to HK$100m (£9.7m). The collection was consigned by Chris Peppé on behalf of his family, who had inherited the relics from his great grandfather, William Caxton Peppé – a 19th-century British colonial landowner who owned an estate in India.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Reaction was muted at first, but as a scholar who researches the early history and archaeology of Buddhism and issues surrounding loot and restitution, I was gravely concerned by this proposed sale. Fortunately, I was not alone, and thanks to detailed research of SOAS colleagues such as Conan Cheong, Ashley Thompson and Thai academic Pipad Krajaejun, as well as protests from Buddhist devotees worldwide, a groundswell of disapproval began to grow.

    A letter sent to Sotheby’s by the British Maha Bodhi Society, and shared with me, states:

    Millions around the world, whether Buddhist or not, have religious and ethical concerns and believe that the sale of sacred items is morally wrong and offensive … Members of the Buddhist sangha [monkhood], as well as lay followers from all traditions, are appalled that the gems offered in devotional acts by the Buddha’s own clan, have been separated from his corporeal remains and are now being sold to the highest bidder.

    This disapproval turned into a tidal wave on May 5, two days before the planned auction, with the intervention of the Indian government – which is now threatening legal action against both Sotheby’s and the Peppé family, demanding that the relics be repatriated to India.

    In terms of his rights and those of his relatives to sell the relics, Chris Peppé previously had told the Guardian newspaper: “Legally, the ownership is unchallenged.”

    Sotheby’s confirmed to me that it and the Indian government are “currently in discussions regarding the Piprahwa Gems of the Historical Buddha, and are pleased to be working together to find the best possible outcome for all parties”.

    How we got here

    To understand how we reached this impasse, we must cast our eyes back to 19th-century British colonial India, then forward again to 2018-2023 and a number of high-profile exhibitions at some of the world’s most prestigious museums.

    In 1898, the family’s great grandfather, William Caxton Peppé, excavated a Buddhist reliquary monument (known as a stupa) on his estate in Piprahwa, northern India. He uncovered what is now considered by scholars to be the most significant cache of Buddhist relics found in India.

    The discovery included five reliquary urns containing gems, ash and bone fragments. An inscription on one suggested the remains could be those of the historical Buddha, who is thought to have been cremated around 200 years prior to their burial.

    The Indian Treasure Trove Act of 1878 allowed Peppé to keep a portion referred to as “duplicates” (an art-history term used to justify the dividing up of similar material from a hoard or archaeological site that is very much frowned upon today). The British authorities gifted the bones and ash to King Chulalongkorn of Siam, who enshrined them in Bangkok and distributed portions to other Buddhist nations.

    The majority of the 1,800 gems, meanwhile, had been deposited in the Indian Museum in Kolkata. It is a longstanding issue, however, that the bulk of this collection remains locked away in the museum safe, off limits to Buddhists, the wider public and scholars alike. Perhaps the publicity surrounding the Peppé portion of the reliquary contents might prompt that museum to review this policy after 120 years.

    About ten years ago, armed with his inherited share of the relics, Chris Peppé began reaching out to museums worldwide, proposing to loan them. This, he recently stated, was to make them accessible to Buddhist devotees and the general public alike. Five museums took him up on the offer and, starting in 2018, duly curated high-profile exhibitions around them or incorporated them into larger shows.

    Chief among these was the 2023 blockbuster Tree And Serpent: Early Buddhist Art of India at the Metropolitan Museum of Art New York, where Peppé took part in the exhibition symposium, delivering a lecture on the relics.

    Objects with a history of celebrated exhibitions tend to reach higher prices at auction. Whether the Peppé family intentionally built up the Piprahwa exhibition history with the aim of eventually auctioning the relics is unclear. I contacted Chris Peppé directly and posed this question to him, but he declined to comment.

    Tellingly, the Sotheby’s website included a scholarly article from 2023 in Orientations Magazine by John Guy, curator of the Tree and Serpent exhibition. But it was dated to February 2025, which perhaps inadvertently made it appear to have been written as an endorsement of the sale. In fact, the paper had been published to coincide with the exhibition. I contacted Guy about this, and he responded by saying:

    I regard the linking of my publication to the Sotheby’s sale as highly inappropriate and this was done without my knowledge or consent. The Met’s lawyers demanded that it be removed immediately, which was done, along with a written apology from Sotheby’s.

    When I spoke to Nancy Wong at Sotheby’s, she confirmed this, saying: “We apologised and immediately removed the relevant reference from our website.”

    Given the events of the past few weeks, the Peppé family now find themselves in a bind. With the Indian government engaged, and it may not be long before Sotheby’s drops them and the relics altogether. Despite their cultured facades and high-society veneers, auction houses are businesses, designed to make a profit – and any potential buyers may have been thoroughly scared off by recent events.

    It is hard, however, for me to have much sympathy for the family who could have prevented this whole affair by donating the relics to a Buddhist community or museum in the first place.

    Stephen A Murphy is a Senior Lecturer at SOAS, University of London. Prior to this he was a senior curator at the Asian Civilisations Museum, Singapore, from July 2014-October 2020 where an exhibition displaying the The Piprahwa Gems of the Historical Buddha took place in November 2022-March 2023.

    – ref. Why auction of Buddha relics was called off and why it matters – an expert in Asian art explains – https://theconversation.com/why-auction-of-buddha-relics-was-called-off-and-why-it-matters-an-expert-in-asian-art-explains-256379

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Birth control increases stroke risk – here’s what women need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Elin Pigott, Senior Lecturer in Neurosciences and Neurorehabilitation, Course Leader in the College of Health and Life Sciences, London South Bank University

    Cryptogenic strokes have no obvious cause, but is increasingly being linked to subtle, hidden risk factors – such as oestrogen. Krakenimages.com/ Shutterstock

    For millions of women, combined hormonal contraceptives are a part of their daily life – providing a convenient and effective option for preventing pregnancy and managing their menstrual cycle.

    But new findings are sounding the alarm on a serious, and often overlooked, risk: stroke.

    According to recent findings presented at the European Stroke Organisation Conference, combined oral hormonal contraceptives (which contains both oestrogen and progestogen) may significantly increase the chance of women experiencing a cryptogenic stroke. This is a sudden and serious type of stroke that occurs with no obvious cause.

    Surprisingly, in younger adults – particularly women – cryptogenic strokes make up approximately 40% of all strokes. This suggests there may be sex-specific factors which contribute to this risk – such as hormonal contraception use. These recently-presented findings lend themselves to this theory.

    At this year’s conference, researchers presented findings from the Secreto study. This is an international investigation that has been conducted into the causes of unexplained strokes in young people aged 18 to 49. The study enrolled 608 patients with cryptogenic ischaemic stroke from 13 different European countries.

    One of their most striking discoveries was that women who used combined oral contraceptives were three times more likely to experience a cryptogenic stroke compared to non-users. These results stood, even after researchers adjusted for other factors which may have contributed to stroke risk (such as obesity and history of migraines).

    It’s well-documented that hormonal contraceptives, which contain both oestrogen and progestin, come with a small, increased risk of experiencing serious health events, including stroke – particularly ischaemic stroke, which occurs when blood flow to part of the brain is blocked.

    But a study published earlier this year, which tracked over two million women, found that combined hormonal contraceptives – including the pill, intrauterine devices (IUD), patches and vaginal rings, which all contain both synthetic oestrogen and progestogen – were linked to higher risks of both stroke and heart attack. The vaginal ring increased stroke risk by 2.4 times and 3.8 times for heart attack. The contraceptive patch was found to increase stroke risk by nearly 3.5 times.

    Interestingly, they also looked at a progestin-only contraceptive (the IUD) and found there was no increased risk for either heart attacks or strokes.

    Both of these recent findings suggest oestrogen may be the main driver of stroke risk. While absolute risk is still low – meaning fewer than 40 in every 100,000 women using a combined hormonal contraceptive will experience a stroke – the population-level impact is significant considering the number of women worldwide that use a combined hormonal contraceptive.

    Oestrogen and stroke risk

    Combined hormonal contraceptives contain synthetic versions of the sex hormones oestrogen (usually ethinylestradiol) and a progestin (the synthetic version of progestogen).

    Natural oestrogen in the body plays a role in promoting blood clotting, which is important for helping wounds heal and prevents excessive bleeding.

    The oestrogen in contraceptives is more potent than natural oestrogen.
    Image Point Fr/ Shutterstock

    But the synthetic oestrogen in contraceptives is more potent and delivered in higher, steady doses. It stimulates the liver to produce extra clotting proteins and reduces natural anticoagulants — tipping the balance toward easier clot formation. This effect, while helpful in stopping bleeding, can raise the risk of abnormal blood clots that can lead to conditions such as stroke. This risk may be even greater for people who smoke, experience migraines or have a genetic tendency to clot.

    If a clot forms in an artery that supplies the brain or breaks off and travels through the bloodstream to the brain, this can block blood flow – causing what’s known as an ischaemic stroke. This is the most common type of stroke. Clots can also form in deep veins (such as those in the legs or around your organs).

    In addition to clotting, oestrogen may also slightly raise blood pressure and affect how blood vessels behave over time, which can further increase stroke risk.

    The effects of oestrogen on clotting may partly explain why the recent conference findings showed a link between combined contraceptive use and cryptogenic stroke risk. Cryptogenic stroke has no obvious cause, but is increasingly being linked to subtle, hidden risk factors – such as hormone-driven clotting.

    Understanding risk

    These numbers can sound alarming at first, but it’s important to keep them in perspective. The absolute risk – meaning the actual number of people affected – is still low.

    For instance, researchers estimate that there may be one additional stroke per year for every 4,700 women using the combined pill.

    That sounds rare, and for most users, it is. But when you consider that millions of women use these contraceptives globally, even a small increase in risk can translate into a significant number of strokes at the population level. Which is relative to what is seen with the high number of cryptogenic strokes in young women.

    Despite the risks associated with combined hormonal contraceptives, many women continue to use them – either because they aren’t fully informed of the risks or because the alternatives are either less effective, less accessible or come with their own burdens.

    Part of the reason this trade-off has become so normalised is the persistent under-funding and under-prioritisation of women’s health research. Historically, medical research has focused disproportionately on men – with women either excluded from studies or treated as an afterthought.

    This has led to a limited understanding of how hormonal contraceptives affect female physiology beyond fertility control. As a result, the side-effects remain poorly understood, under-communicated and under-addressed.

    Women have a right to make informed decisions about their health and body. This starts with having access to accurate information about the real risks and benefits of every contraceptive option. It means understanding, for example, that while combined hormonal contraceptives do carry a small risk of blood clots and stroke, pregnancy and the weeks following childbirth come with an even higher risk of those same complications. This context is vital for making truly informed choices.

    No method of contraception is perfect. But when women are given the full picture, they can choose the method that best suits them. We also need more research that reflects the diversity and complexity of women’s bodies – not just to improve safety, but to expand options and empower decisions.

    Laura Elin Pigott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Birth control increases stroke risk – here’s what women need to know – https://theconversation.com/birth-control-increases-stroke-risk-heres-what-women-need-to-know-257516

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump sees himself as more like a king than president. Here’s why

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in US politics and international security, University of Portsmouth

    The American Revolution was a result of the tyranny experienced by colonists under the British monarchy. Many Americans had fled from Europe where they had been persecuted under the rule of powerful monarchs. The government produced by the revolution was designed to ensure no such tyranny could be reproduced in the newly formed United States.

    The framers of the constitution created a checks-and-balances system of government to ensure that no single branch of the federal government (executive, judicial or legislative) could dominate the others. Each branch has powers to curtail or empower the others.

    However, some Americans are concerned about a return of absolute rule due to the steps taken by Donald Trump’s second administration. This has sparked around 100 “no kings” protests all over the US, organised to coincide with Trump’s birthday on June 15.

    Increasing presidential power

    The second Trump administration has made a determined effort to strengthen presidential power and reduce oversight of the executive branch (the presidency). Achieving this could mean the president acting in an arbitrary manner similar to absolute monarchs of the past, free of congressional or judicial interference.

    Trump’s “big beautiful bill”, which has been passed in the House of Representatives and now must go to the Senate, contains certain provisions that strengthen the role of the president and undermine the checks-and-balances system.

    Previous presidents, such as Franklin D. Roosevelt during the New Deal era of the 1930s, had many of their executive orders cancelled by Supreme Court rulings. Over the last five months, the judiciary has ruled on the constitutionality of Trump’s executive actions, putting at least 180 on hold.

    As a consequence, the president has continually questioned the validity of the courts to act. At last week’s West Point graduation ceremony, Trump claimed that last November’s election result “gives us the right to do what we wanna do to make our country great again”.

    As Robert Reich, the former US secretary of labor, wrote recently, this “big beautiful bill” will remove the courts’ ability to hold executive officials in contempt and undermine any efforts to stop the administration. Supreme Court rulings could be ignored by the executive branch, and Congress would be unable to enforce its subpoenas and laws. “Trump will have crowned himself king,” Reich concluded.

    Just like the judicial branch, the legislative branch (Congress) also has the ability to check the executive branch. Congress can override the presidential veto if both the House and Senate pass legislation with a two-thirds majority. And the executive branch (the president) cannot fund any initiatives without the budget being approved by Congress first.

    But Trump and his supporters have minimised the impact that Congress can have on this particular bill by including all of the provisions within a budget reconciliation bill. This is a special legislative procedure that is designed to pass bills through Congress quickly.

    Bills usually require 60 votes to bypass a filibuster – a tactic used by senators to delay voting on the bill by refusing to end the debate and speaking for exceptionally long times without a break.

    But because this is a budget reconciliation, it only requires a majority – 51 votes – to pass the Senate. And because the Republicans have 53 seats in the Senate, Trump is confident the bill will pass without any Democratic interference.

    The House narrowly passed the bill, despite some opposition from Republicans. And some Republican senators have also expressed concerns. But this is the latest move to centralise greater power within the presidency.

    Trump makes the commencement speech at the West Point military academy.

    Trump v the courts

    Trump’s apparent belief that he is above the law has, in part, been supported by last year’s Supreme Court ruling which stated that former presidents had immunity from prosecution for official presidential acts. The Trump v United States decision decided such acts included command of the military, control of the executive branch, and execution of laws.

    However, this week’s federal court ruling on the legality of Trump’s economic tariffs represents a setback to the administration’s efforts to strengthen presidential power. The Court of International Trade ruled that the White House’s use of emergency powers did not grant it the authority to impose tariffs on every country, and that the constitution states such power resides within Congress.

    The Trump administration immediately said it would be appealing the decision. “It is not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency,” Kush Desai, the White House deputy press secretary, said on the ruling, and that Trump would use “every lever of executive power” to “restore American greatness”.

    All of which has led Trump to quote another authoritarian leader, Napoleon, on social media. His post – “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law” – was a clear rebuke to those who have tried to limit executive authority while he has been in office, and echoes that of former president Richard Nixon who, in an interview with David Frost about the Watergate scandal, argued that the constitution allowed the president to break the law.

    This is an extension of the notion that Article II of the constitution has granted the president the authority to act without checks and balances when dealing with the executive branch. It is a theory much touted within Project 2025, believed to be the blueprint for the Trump presidency.

    There are other historical comparisons that could be made of Trump’s authoritarian actions, such as the rule of Charles I of England (1625-49), who believed he could govern without consulting parliament except when he needed to raise taxes to conduct overseas campaigns. Ultimately, this led to a period of civil wars and the execution of the king for treason.

    While none of these consequences are likely to be replicated, it is clear the US is currently in a constitutional crisis. The Supreme Court has a number of rulings to make on the judicial challenges to Trump’s executive authority. These will have generational consequences – but it is unclear in which way the court, where conservative judges have a 6-3 majority, will lean.

    While Trump may not be seeking a crown for his head, he is certainly arguing that he has the right to control the executive branch in the way he sees fit, without any interference from Congress or the judiciary. This is not the separation of powers as prescribed by the framers of the US constitution, but more like the absolutism of medieval monarchs.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump sees himself as more like a king than president. Here’s why – https://theconversation.com/trump-sees-himself-as-more-like-a-king-than-president-heres-why-257700

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Male infertility: how lab-produced sperm could transform fertility treatment in the future

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eoghan Cunnane, Associate Professor in Biomedical Materials Engineering, University of Limerick

    George Rudy/Shutterstock

    Imagine a future where a diagnosis of untreatable male infertility is no longer the end of the road – because science has found a way to produce human sperm from lab-engineered testicular tissue.

    This might sound like science fiction, but I’m leading a team of researchers at the University of Limerick (UL) to work on making the production of human sperm from lab-engineered testicular tissue a reality. If successful, this could redefine fertility treatment and bring hope to the millions of people around the world affected by male infertility.

    Why now? Because male reproductive health is in decline – and the numbers are too stark to ignore.

    Over the past seven decades, sperm counts have decreased dramatically while conditions like testicular cancer, hormone imbalances and genital malformations – which can all have an effect on sperm counts – are on the rise.

    The precise causes of declining male reproductive health are still being debated. While genetics may play a role, no single genetic factor has been shown to affect male fertility at a population level. Instead, much of the focus has turned to the environment, particularly endocrine-disrupting chemicals.

    These chemicals, which can interfere with hormone function, are found in common items such as plastics, pesticides, cosmetics and even painkillers. There is growing evidence that exposure to these substances in the womb can increase the risk of testicular cancer, reduce sperm quality, and lead to male infertility later in life.

    For some men, fertility issues are treatable – lifestyle changes, hormone therapy, or surgery to correct blockages in the reproductive tract can help. But for a large proportion, there is no identifiable cause.

    This type of unexplained infertility, known as idiopathic infertility, currently leaves patients with only one option: surgical sperm retrieval (SSR).

    SSR involves surgically opening the testicles to search for viable sperm for use in assisted reproductive technologies like IVF. However, success is far from guaranteed. In some cases, the chance of finding even a single usable sperm cell is as low as 40%.

    In addition to its physical and emotional toll, SSR places the burden of fertility treatment on the female partner’s reproductive system, meaning women’s bodies are often the target of fertility medications and procedures. It does little to address the underlying health risks associated with male infertility, including higher rates of illness and early mortality.

    And if SSR fails, the only option left is to use donor sperm – a difficult and emotional decision for many people.

    Root of the problem

    To address male infertility, scientists need to get to the root of the problem and develop solutions that restore natural fertility.

    So, given the ethical and biological limits on experimenting directly with humans, researchers have turned to preclinical models to study the human testes. These include ex vivo tissue (human or animal tissue studied outside the body), in vitro cell cultures (human testicular cells grown on lab plates), and animal models (typically rodents or primates).

    However, human sperm production is vastly different – and much less efficient – than in other mammals, making animal models unreliable. To move forward, researchers need preclinical models that closely mimic human testes and their ability to produce sperm.

    This remains one of the biggest scientific hurdles in the field. While researchers have successfully produced sperm in the lab from mouse testicular tissue, the same has never been achieved in humans.

    Our research is attempting to overcome this challenge by combining biology with mechanical engineering and materials science. We started by analysing human testicular tissue samples from a range of donors, building a detailed understanding of how the tissue functions.

    This data was fed into the design of model systems that replicate human testicular tissue – not just biologically, but mechanically and structurally. The ultimate goal is to create a model that can not only mimic testicular function but produce viable human sperm.

    Lab-produced sperm could revolutionise fertility care. It might one day offer a solution to men who have undergone failed SSR procedures, childhood cancer survivors whose fertility was damaged by chemotherapy or radiation, and male patients with severe, unexplained infertility who currently have no treatment options.

    This isn’t just a scientific experiment. It’s about restoring hope to those for whom existing medical approaches have run out of answers.

    Eoghan Cunnane receives funding from the European Research Council, Research Ireland, and the UL Foundation.

    – ref. Male infertility: how lab-produced sperm could transform fertility treatment in the future – https://theconversation.com/male-infertility-how-lab-produced-sperm-could-transform-fertility-treatment-in-the-future-255376

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why police released the ethnicity of Liverpool parade crash suspect

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John McGarry, Senior Lecturer in Law, Leeds Beckett University

    Within hours of a driver ramming into a crowd at Liverpool’s Premier League victory parade, injuring 65 people, Merseyside Police shared in a press release that they had arrested a suspect. Unusually, the announcement included the race and nationality of the person arrested – a 53-year-old white British man.

    This was a stark contrast to the previous summer, when speculation about the ethnicity of a 17-year-old arrested for the murder of three young girls in Southport led to public disorder and riots around the country.

    The question of what police and the public can say about an ongoing legal case and when is governed by contempt of court laws, which cover a wide range of behaviour in the UK. They prevent conduct which may disrupt legal proceedings, such as shouting out in court or otherwise causing a disturbance. They also prohibit publications which create “a substantial risk” that legal proceedings “will be seriously impeded or prejudiced”, and ensure that court orders are followed.

    A recent House of Commons report suggested that the laws of contempt are not fit for the social media age. The report came after the public disorder which followed the murders of three girls by Axel Rudakubana in Southport in July 2024.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    It is widely accepted that in the Southport case, misinformation spread via social media – specifically, that the attacker was a Muslim asylum seeker called Ali-Al-Shakati – helped to fuel the disorder. Merseyside Police’s decision to quickly publish the ethnicity of the man arrested in Liverpool suggests they were acting to prevent a repeat of the August 2024 riots.

    The police were restricted in the information they could release after Southport. Separate from the contempt laws, the Children and Young Persons Act prohibits the publication of material that may identify a person under 18 involved in youth court proceedings, and a judge may order anonymity in other criminal proceedings.

    The laws of contempt also prohibited the release of information which might have prejudiced any future trial. For example, that Rudakubana had previous criminal convictions and had been referred three times to Prevent, the anti-terrorism scheme.

    Police responded to riots around the country in August 2024 after misinformation spread about the suspect arrested for the murder of three girls in Southport.
    Ian Hamlett/Shutterstock

    The police did try to combat false information about the case in the days following the Southport attack, but it was too late. They shared that the suspect had been born in Cardiff and that the name circulating on social media was incorrect. However, they could have released more information more quickly, even under the current contempt laws, including details such as Rudakubana’s ethnicity.

    The Law Commission, an independent statutory body charged with reviewing the law of England and Wales and suggesting reforms, has said it is an “open question” whether the publication of more information could have prevented or mitigated the disorder after Southport.

    But the events after Southport are probably why Liverpool was handled differently. Merseyside Police broke from their previous approach of not releasing ethnicity details (except in cases of missing persons or people on the run). Earlier in May, the police inspectorate published a report on the Southport response, saying police forces “need to better appreciate how fast-moving events will require them to counter false narratives online”.

    However, simply releasing the race of the man arrested in Liverpool hasn’t fully filled the information void. A man’s photo was circulated on social media, wrongly identifying him as the person arrested.

    It also risks setting a precedent for future cases. If police release a suspect’s ethnicity, some people will make assumptions about whether their ethnicity is linked to a motive for an attack, and may spread misinformation that may prejudice a trial or cause disorder. But if they don’t release the ethnicity, some people may still make assumptions about why police have kept it secret. In either case, misinformation is likely to spread.

    Fit for the social media age?

    Both of these cases raise concerns about whether current laws are fit for purpose, in an age when information spreads quickly – regardless of whether it is true – on social media.

    Regardless of what the police make public, the real challenge is that anyone with a smartphone can instantly comment on any event, and may not know they are putting themselves at risk of committing a contempt of court offence.

    In 2019, actress Tina Malone received a suspended sentence of eight months for breaching a court order prohibiting the release of information about the murderers of James Bulger. She shared a social media post which claimed to provide the new identity and a picture of Jon Venables. Malone told the court that she was unaware that she was doing anything wrong.

    Newspapers have often been the subject of contempt of court cases. But in theory, anyone who shares a post by a publication later found to be in contempt could be implicated too.

    Committing contempt can carry a sentence of up to two years’ imprisonment and an unlimited fine. Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, also known as Tommy Robinson, was recently released from prison, where he had been serving a sentence for repeatedly breaching a court order.



    Read more:
    Sarah Everard: social media and the very real danger of contempt of court

    The attorney general has launched campaigns to educate the public on the risks, but whether they’ve had any effect is questionable. Even politicians, including those in government, have made social media posts which come very close to being in contempt of court.

    The Law Commission recently described the contempt laws as “disorganised and, at times, incoherent”. It launched a consultation in July 2024 on proposals to reform the law.

    The laws of contempt, which have developed piecemeal over centuries, are not well known or understood. But they are an important part of the legal system, and they attempt to strike a balance between freedom of expression and the right to a fair trial, and to ensure that both victims and defendants receive justice. In the current climate, they need to be made much clearer.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why police released the ethnicity of Liverpool parade crash suspect – https://theconversation.com/why-police-released-the-ethnicity-of-liverpool-parade-crash-suspect-255462

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The biggest barrier to AI adoption in the business world isn’t tech – it’s user confidence

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Greg Edwards, Adjunct Lecturer, Missouri University of Science and Technology

    Believe in your own decision-making. Feodora Chiosea/Getty Images Plus

    The Little Engine That Could wasn’t the most powerful train, but she believed in herself. The story goes that, as she set off to climb a steep mountain, she repeated: “I think I can, I think I can.”

    That simple phrase from a children’s story still holds a lesson for today’s business world – especially when it comes to artificial intelligence.

    AI is no longer a distant promise out of science fiction. It’s here and already beginning to transform industries. But despite the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on developing AI models and platforms, adoption remains slow for many employees, with a recent Pew Research Center survey finding that 63% of U.S. workers use AI minimally or not at all in their jobs.

    The reason? It can often come down to what researchers call technological self-efficacy, or, put simply, a person’s belief in their ability to use technology effectively.

    In my research on this topic, I found that many people who avoid using new technology aren’t truly against it – instead, they just don’t feel equipped to use it in their specific jobs. So rather than risk getting it wrong, they choose to keep their distance.

    And that’s where many organizations derail. They focus on building the engine, but don’t fully fuel the confidence that workers need to get it moving.

    What self-efficacy has to do with AI

    Albert Bandura, the psychologist who developed the theory of self-efficacy, noted that skill alone doesn’t determine people’s behavior. What matters more is a person’s belief in their ability to use that skill effectively.

    In my study of teachers in 1:1 technology environments – classrooms where each student is equipped with a digital device like a laptop or tablet – this was clear. I found that even teachers with access to powerful digital tools don’t always feel confident using them. And when they lack confidence, they may avoid the technology or use it in limited, superficial ways.

    The same holds true in today’s AI-equipped workplace. Leaders may be quick to roll out new tools and want fast results. But employees may hesitate, wondering how it applies to their roles, whether they’ll use it correctly, or if they’ll appear less competent – or even unethical – for relying on it.

    Beneath that hesitation may also be the all-too-familiar fear of one day being replaced by technology.

    Going back to train analogies, think of John Henry, the 19th-century folk hero. As the story goes, Henry was a railroad worker who was famous for his strength. When a steam-powered machine threatened to replace him, he raced it – and won. But the victory came at a cost: He collapsed and died shortly afterward.

    Henry’s story is a lesson in how resisting new technology through sheer willpower can be self-defeating. Rather than leaving some employees feeling like they have to outmuscle or outperform AI, organizations should invest in helping them understand how to work with it – so they don’t feel like they need to work against it.

    Relevant and role-specific training

    Many organizations do offer training related to using AI. But these programs are often too broad, covering topics like how to log into different programs, what the interfaces look like, or what AI “generally” can do.

    In 2025, with the number of AI tools at our disposal, ranging from conversational chatbots and content creation platforms to advanced data analytics and workflow automation programs, that’s not enough.

    In my study, participants consistently said they benefited most from training that was “district-specific,” meaning tailored to the devices, software and situations they faced daily with their specific subject areas and grade levels.

    Translation for the corporate world? Training needs to be job-specific and user-centered – not one-size-fits-all.

    The generational divide

    It’s not exactly shocking: Younger workers tend to feel more confident using technology than older ones. Gen Z and millennials are digital natives – they’ve grown up with digital technologies as part of their daily lives.

    Gen X and boomers, on the other hand, often had to adapt to using digital technologies mid-career. As a result, they may feel less capable and be more likely to dismiss AI and its possibilities. And if their few forays into AI are frustrating or lead to mistakes, that first impression is likely to stick.

    When generative AI tools were first launched commercially, they were more likely to hallucinate and confidently spit out incorrect information. Remember when Google demoed its Bard AI tool in 2023 and its factual error led to its parent company losing US$100 billion in market value? Or when an attorney made headlines for citing fabricated cases courtesy of ChatGPT?

    Moments like those likely reinforced skepticism – especially among workers already unsure about AI’s reliability. But the technology has already come a long way in a relatively short period of time.

    The solution to getting those who may be slower to embrace AI isn’t to push them harder, but to coach them and consider their backgrounds.

    What effective AI training looks like

    Bandura identified four key sources that shape a person’s belief in their ability to succeed:

    1. Mastery experiences, or personal success

    2. Vicarious experiences, or seeing others in similar positions succeed

    3. Verbal persuasion, or positive feedback

    4. Physiological and emotional states, or someone’s mood, energy, anxiety and so forth.

    In my research on educators, I saw how these concepts made a difference, and the same approach can apply to AI in the corporate world – or in virtually any environment in which a person needs to build self-efficacy.

    In the workplace, this could be accomplished with cohort-based trainings that include feedback loops – regular communication between leaders and employees about growth, improvement and more – along with content that can be customized to employees’ needs and roles. Organizations can also experiment with engaging formats like PricewaterhouseCoopers’ prompting parties, which provide low-stakes opportunities for employees to build confidence and try new AI programs.

    In “Pokemon Go!,” it’s possible to level up by stacking lots of small, low-stakes wins and gaining experience points along the way. Workplaces could approach AI training the same way, giving employees frequent, simple opportunities tied to their actual work to steadily build confidence and skill.

    The curriculum doesn’t have to be revolutionary. It just needs to follow these principles and not fall victim to death by PowerPoint, or end up being generic training that isn’t applicable to specific roles in the workplace.

    As organizations continue to invest heavily in developing and accessing AI technologies, it’s also essential that they invest in the people who will use them. AI might change what the workforce looks like, but there’s still going to be a workforce. And when people are well trained, AI can make both them and the outfits they work for significantly more effective.

    Greg Edwards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The biggest barrier to AI adoption in the business world isn’t tech – it’s user confidence – https://theconversation.com/the-biggest-barrier-to-ai-adoption-in-the-business-world-isnt-tech-its-user-confidence-257308

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Solar arrays help boost Colorado grassland productivity in dry years

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Matthew Sturchio, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University; Faculty Afffiliate in Ecology, Colorado State University

    Solar panels on grasslands can generate electricity and useful forage or wildlife habitat. Matthew Sturchio, CC BY-ND

    Grasses growing in the shade of a solar array were only a little less productive than those growing nearby in open grassland during years of average and above-average rainfall – but in a dry year, the shaded plants grew much better than those growing in full sun. That’s the result of a four-year study we conducted in a semi-arid grassland of northern Colorado.

    When choosing a location for generating solar power, consistent sunlight and interconnection to the electric grid are key criteria. In Colorado the combination of new electrical transmission infrastructure, abundant sunlight and short vegetation that is easy to maintain have made grasslands a prime target for solar development.

    Grasslands, like those that dominate the eastern plains of Colorado, provide important habitat for wildlife and serve as a critical food source for livestock. Although these grasslands have long been productive despite their normally arid environment, a warmer climate has increased the potential for more frequent and severe drought. For instance, a recent global study found that previous research likely underestimated the threat of extreme drought in grasslands.

    Semi-arid grassland near the Colorado-Wyoming border.
    Matthew Sturchio, CC BY-ND
    Semi-arid grassland near Cheyenne, Wyo., with close-ups of flowers of some of the plants that grow there.
    Matthew Sturchio, CC BY-ND

    At Colorado State University, biology professor Alan Knapp and I started the ecovoltaics research group to study the effects of solar development in grasslands. Our primary goal is to ensure an ecologically informed solar energy future.

    Solar panels create microclimates

    Strings of solar panels redirect rain to the edge of panels. Because of this, small rain events can provide biologically relevant amounts of water instead of evaporating quickly.

    Simultaneously, solar panels shade plants growing beneath them. Some arrays, including the ones used in our study, move the panels to follow the path of the Sun across the sky.

    This results in a combination of sun and shade that is very different from the uninterrupted sunlight beating down on plants in a grassland without solar panels. In turn, patterns of plant stress and water loss also differ in grasses under solar arrays.

    A time-lapse video shows how a single-axis tracking solar array at Jack’s Solar Garden modifies patterns of sunlight availability.

    How grasses respond to a solar panel canopy

    To get a handle on how these different conditions affect grasses, we measured plant physiological response during the early stages of our study. More specifically, we tracked leaf carbon and water exchange throughout daylight hours, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., over 16 weeks in summer 2022 at Jack’s Solar Garden, a solar array over grassland in Longmont, Colorado.

    In general, plants that are adapted to full sun conditions, including most grasses, might not be expected to grow as well in partial shade. But we suspected that growth benefits from reduced water stress could outweigh potential reductions in growth from shading. We call this the “aridity mitigation potential” hypothesis.

    Sure enough, we found evidence of aridity mitigation across multiple years, with the most pronounced effect during the driest year.

    When water is scarce, increases in grassland productivity are more valuable because there isn’t as much around. Therefore, increasing grassland production in dry years could provide more available food for grazing animals and help offset some of the economic harm of drought in rangelands.

    Informing sustainable solar development in grasslands

    So far, our research has been limited to a grassland dominated by a cool season grass: smooth brome. Although it is a perennial commonly planted for hay, fields dominated by smooth brome lack the diversity of life found in native grasslands.

    Future work in native shortgrass prairies would provide new information about how solar panels affect plant water use, soils and grazing management in an ecosystem with 30% less precipitation than Jack’s Solar Garden. We’re beginning that work now at the shortgrass ecovoltaic research facility near Nunn, Colorado. This facility, which will be fully operational later in 2025, was constructed with support from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, through the wider SCAPES project.

    Testing the effects of solar panels over grasslands in a native ecosystem with even greater aridity will help us develop a clearer picture of ways solar energy can be developed in concert with grassland health.

    Matthew Sturchio works for Cornell University and serves as a Faculty Affiliate at Colorado State University. Funding for this work came from US Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture Sustainable Agricultural Systems project entitled “Sustainably Co-locating Agricultural and Photovoltaic Electricity Systems,” led by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Grant Number: 2021-68012-35898, 2021–2025.

    – ref. Solar arrays help boost Colorado grassland productivity in dry years – https://theconversation.com/solar-arrays-help-boost-colorado-grassland-productivity-in-dry-years-257082

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hurricane season is here, but FEMA’s policy change could leave low-income areas less protected

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ivis García, Associate Professor of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University

    Hurricane Harvey inundated the Cottage Grove neighborhood of Houston in 2018. Scott Olson/Getty Images

    When powerful storms hit your city, which neighborhoods are most likely to flood? In many cities, they’re typically low-income areas. They may have poor drainage, or they lack protections such as seawalls.

    New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward, where hundreds of people died when Hurricane Katrina broke a levee in 2005, and Houston’s Kashmere Gardens, flooded by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, are just two among many examples.

    With those disasters in mind, the Federal Emergency Management Agency made a big change to its Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide in 2023. The agency began encouraging cities, towns and counties to address equity in their hazard mitigation plans, which outline how they will reduce disaster risk.

    Local governments have an incentive to follow those federal guidelines: Those that want to receive FEMA hazard mitigation assistance – money which can be used to repair aging infrastructure like roads, bridges and flood barriers – or funding from other programs such as dam rehabilitation have to develop local mitigation plans and update them every five years.

    Hurricane Irma flooded Immokalee, Fla., in 2017. The community, home to many farmworkers, had infrastructure problems before the storm, and recovery was slow.
    AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

    The new guidance required cities to both consider social vulnerability among neighborhoods in their disaster mitigation planning and involve socially vulnerable communities in those discussions in ways they hadn’t before.

    However, as the U.S. heads into what forecasters predict will be an active 2025 hurricane season, that guidance has changed again. The Trump administration’s new FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide 2025 talks about public involvement in planning but strips any mention of equity, income or social vulnerability. It mentions using “projections for the future” to plan but removes references to climate change.

    Who is most at risk in hurricanes, and why

    Hurricanes and other storms that cause flooding don’t affect everyone in the same way.

    A legacy of redlining and discrimination in many U.S. cities left poor and minority families living in often risky areas. These neighborhoods also tend to have poorer infrastructure.

    In the past, local mitigation plans just focused on fixing roads or protecting property in general from storm damage, without recognizing that socially vulnerable groups, such as low-income or elderly populations, were more likely to be hardest hit and take much longer to recover.

    Low-income neighborhoods in Puerto Rico have been slow to recover from 2017’s Hurricane Maria.
    Ivis Garcia

    The FEMA 2023 guidance encouraged communities to consider both the highest risks and which neighborhoods would be least able to respond in a disaster and address their needs.

    The equity requirement was designed to ensure that local plans didn’t just protect those with the most wealth or political influence but considered who needs the help most. That might mean providing information in multiple languages in emergency alerts or investing in flood prevention in neighborhoods with aging infrastructure like roads, bridges and flood barriers.

    How New York City’s 2024 plan helped

    New York City’s 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan, for example, included a thorough social vulnerability assessment to identify neighborhoods with high percentages of people who were living in poverty or were older, disabled or weren’t fluent in English.

    Knowing where disaster risk and social vulnerability overlapped allowed the city to boost investments in flood protection, emergency communication and cooling centers during summer heat in neighborhoods such as the South Bronx and East Harlem. These neighborhoods historically faced some of the greatest risks from disasters but saw little investment.

    The NYC Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice mapped the risk of storm surge flooding in the 2020s (purple) and 2080s (dark blue), and neighborhoods that fall under the city’s ‘disadvantaged communities’ criteria. A 1% risk means a 1% of chance of flooding in any given year, also referred to as a 100-year flood risk.
    NYC Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice

    Further, New York’s plan calls for expanding outreach and early warning systems in multiple languages and enhancing infrastructure in areas with high concentrations of Spanish speakers. These kinds of changes help ensure that vulnerable residents are more likely to be better protected when disaster strikes.

    Why is FEMA dropping that emphasis now?

    FEMA’s reasoning for the guidance change in 2025: make it quicker and easier to get plans approved and unlock federal funding for projects like flood barriers, storm shelters and buyouts in areas at high risk of damage.

    It’s a pragmatic move, but one that raises big questions about whether residents who are least able to help themselves will be overlooked again when the next disaster strikes.

    And FEMA isn’t alone — other agencies, like the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and its Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery program, have made similar changes to their own disaster planning rules. Community Development Block Grant funds for disaster recovery are flexible and can be used for things like rebuilding homes and businesses, restoring infrastructure and helping local economies recover.

    What this means for low-income areas

    Some experts worry that the changes might mean low-income and other at-risk communities will be ignored again when cities develop their next five-year mitigation plans. Research from the Government Accountability Office shows that when something is required by law, it gets done. When it’s just a suggestion, it’s easy to skip, especially in places with fewer resources or less political will to help.

    But the short-lived rules may have already helped in one important way: They made cities and states pay attention to social vulnerability, climate change and the needs of all their residents.

    Many local leaders have learned the value of using data to understand where socially vulnerable residents face high disaster risks. And they have a model now for involving communities in decision-making. Even if those steps are no longer required, the hope is that these good habits will stick.

    Where and how communities invest in disaster protection affects who stays safe and who faces higher risks from flooding, hurricanes and other disasters. When government policy shifts, it’s not just about paperwork – it’s about real people.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hurricane season is here, but FEMA’s policy change could leave low-income areas less protected – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-season-is-here-but-femas-policy-change-could-leave-low-income-areas-less-protected-256985

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Millions of US children have parents with substance use disorder, and the consequences are staggering − new research

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ty Schepis, Professor of Psychology, Texas State University

    Alcohol is the most common substance misused by parents. igorr1/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    About 1 in 4 U.S. children – nearly 19 million – have at least one parent with substance use disorder. This includes parents who misuse alcohol, marijuana, prescription opioids or illegal drugs. Our estimate reflects an increase of over 2 million children since 2020 and an increase of 10 million from an earlier estimate using data from 2009 to 2014.

    Those are the key findings from a new study my colleagues and I published in the journal JAMA Pediatrics.

    To arrive at this estimate, our team used data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health in 2023, the most recently released year of data. Nearly 57,000 people ages 12 and up responded.

    Why it matters

    As a researcher who studies substance use in adolescents and young adults, I know these children are at considerable risk for the disorder, and other mental health issues, such as behavioral problems and symptoms of anxiety and depression.

    Substance use disorder is a psychiatric condition marked by frequent and heavy substance use. The disorder is characterized by numerous symptoms, including behaviors such as driving while intoxicated and fights with family and friends over substance use.

    This disorder also affects a parent’s ability to be an attentive and loving caregiver. Children of these parents are more likely to be exposed to violence, initiate substance use at a younger age, be less prepared for school and enter the child welfare system. They are also more likely to have mental health problems both as children and as adults, and they have a much higher chance of developing a substance use disorder in adulthood.

    Despite the new study’s findings, mental health programs for children at risk could be cut.

    Of the 19 million children, our study found about 3.5 million live with a parent who has multiple substance use disorders. More than 6 million have a parent with both a substance use disorder and significant symptoms of depression, anxiety or both. Alcohol is by far the most common substance used, with 12.5 million children affected.

    Our 19 million estimate is significantly larger than an earlier estimate based on older data. That study, which reviewed data from 2009 to 2014, indicated that 8.7 million U.S. children – or roughly 1 in 8 – lived with a parent, or parents, with substance use disorder. That’s a difference of about 10 million children.

    This happened primarily because between the time of the two studies – from 2014 to 2023 – the criteria for diagnosing someone with substance use disorder became broader and more inclusive. That change alone accounted for more than an 80% jump in the estimate of children affected by parental substance use disorder. There was also a further increase of 2 million in the number of affected children since 2020, which reflects the rising number of parents with a substance use disorder.

    What’s next

    There is a critical need to better identify parents with substance use disorder and the children who are affected by it. In my experience, many pediatric clinicians screen children for substance use, but they are much less likely to screen accompanying parents. So the first step is to make such screenings common and expected for both children and their adult caregivers.

    But that is not the case now. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, an expert panel that recommends screening and prevention best practices for clinicians, does not yet recommend such a screening for children, although that could help direct those in need to treatment and prevent the worst outcomes from substance use disorder.

    Additional intervention, which requires funding, is needed from federal, state and local government. This may seem fanciful in an age of scrutinized government budgets. But the alternative is a bill that comes due later: millions of adults exposed to this disorder at an early age, only to struggle decades later with their own substance use and mental health problems.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    Ty Schepis receives funding from the US National Institutes of Health (NIH)/National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the US Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). Any views expressed are those of Dr. Schepis and do not necessarily represent the official views of NIH/NIDA, the FDA, or SAMHSA. These funders had no role in any articles, and there was no editorial direction or censorship from the funders.

    – ref. Millions of US children have parents with substance use disorder, and the consequences are staggering − new research – https://theconversation.com/millions-of-us-children-have-parents-with-substance-use-disorder-and-the-consequences-are-staggering-new-research-256979

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Detroit’s population grew in 2023, 2024 − a strategy to welcome immigrants helps explain the turnaround from decades of population decline

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Paul N. McDaniel, Associate Professor of Geography, Kennesaw State University

    The Mexican-American community in southwest Detroit held a rally in March 2025, asking ICE to leave the immigrant community alone. Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Detroit’s population grew in 2024 for the second year in a row. This is a remarkable comeback after decades of population decline in the Motor City.

    What explains the turnaround? One factor may be Detroit’s efforts to attract and settle immigrants.

    These efforts continue despite a dramatic national shift in tone toward new arrivals. This includes executive orders from the second Trump administration targeting immigrant communities, international students and their universities, and cities in which immigrants live.

    We study urban geography and immigrant integration. Despite these federal policy shifts, our own research and that of others has found that local leaders in cities across the U.S. are actively working to bring immigrants in and help them become part of local communities, generally for economic reasons.

    Our recent publications on immigrant integration and immigrant community engagement show how and why cities adapt to changes in their population and economies.

    Detroit and other former immigrant gateway metro areas such as Buffalo, New York; Cleveland, Ohio; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and St. Louis, Missouri experienced significant immigration in the early 20th century. These population booms were followed by a period of decline in immigration numbers.

    Now these cities are using branding strategies to construct inclusive identities designed to attract and retain immigrants. It may be surprising to think of a city branding itself, but local governments often work with private nonprofits to shape and manage their city’s image. They try to build a unique and desirable identity for the city, differentiate it from competitors, and attract new businesses, residents and tourists this way.

    Here are three reasons why Detroit and other cities want to welcome immigrants:

    1. Encouraging economic growth and attracting talent

    Immigration has a positive impact on the economy, research shows.

    Local leaders in Detroit recognize that in a global economy, a thriving industrial sector and robust labor market are linked to the contributions of immigrant communities. They also understand that the growth of these communities brings positive economic ripple effects.

    Immigrants are more likely than the general population to own their own businesses. Organizations such as Global Detroit encourage entrepreneurship through programs such as the Global Talent Retention Initiative, Global Talent Accelerator and Global Entrepreneur in Residence and provide resources for small businesses.

    Immigrants also fill labor needs, from high-tech fields such as engineering and research to manual labor sectors such as construction and food service.

    The City of Detroit Office of Immigrant Affairs promotes economic development and immigrant integration through education, English as a second language programs, economic empowerment and community resources.

    These efforts are paying off by attracting immigrants to the city.

    This economic impact extends to tourism as well. The region’s marketing campaigns embracing diversity shape how visitors perceive the region. The Detroit Metro Convention & Visitors Bureau spotlights the unique experiences the city’s diverse neighborhoods offer to tourists.

    2. Enhancing community and regional resilience

    Regional resilience describes a region’s ability to withstand and adapt to challenges such as economic shocks and natural disasters. Cities like Detroit that are still trying to bounce back from deindustrialization know from experience how critical this is.

    Immigration contributes to regional resilience, research shows. In addition to supporting local economies and strengthening the labor force, the arrival of immigrants in Detroit has helped offset native-born population decline, stabilizing the overall population and bolstering local tax bases.

    According to our analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metro area grew by 1.2%, from a total population of 4,291,843 in 2010 to 4,342,304 in 2023.

    According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the Detroit metro area’s native-born population decreased by 58,693 people during that 13-year period, while the foreign-born population increased by 109,154. The top five countries of origin for immigrants in the metro area are India, Iraq, Mexico, Yemen and Lebanon.

    From 2023 to 2024, the metro area’s population gained 40,347 immigrants and lost 11,626 native born residents – resulting in a population gain of 28,721.

    Efforts to welcome immigrants in Detroit and its surrounding communities contributed to this trend of immigrant population growth offsetting overall population decline.

    3. Promoting social cohesion and enhanced civic engagement

    Successful place brands are rooted in inclusion and a strong civil society. Detroit’s rich tapestry of cultures in areas such as Dearborn and Hamtramck creates a vibrant regional identity.

    Organizations such as Global Detroit’s Welcoming Michigan actively support local grassroots efforts to build mutual respect and ensure that immigrants are able to participate fully in the social, civic and economic fabric of their hometowns.

    Examples include Global Detroit’s Social Cohesion Initiative, Common Bond and Opportunity Neighborhoods. These initiatives help bring neighborhood residents of various backgrounds together to share their cultures, support each other’s small businesses and socialize. Such programs strengthen the region’s democratic foundations and enhance its appeal as a welcoming and inclusive place to live.

    Forging a way forward

    Detroit has found that welcoming immigrants and integrating them into the life of the city is one way to navigate the economic, political and cultural challenges it faces.

    And it is not alone in embracing this strategy. Other cities practicing similar strategies include Baltimore; Boise, Idaho; Charlotte, North Carolina; Dallas; Dayton, Ohio; Louisville, Kentucky; New Orleans; Pittsburgh; Roanoke, Virginia; and Salt Lake City.

    Although not all cities choose to pursue such strategies, in those that do, local leaders signal a region ready for a globalized future.

    Paul N. McDaniel previously received funding from the National Geographic Society, served on the Content Advisory Board for the Welcoming Standard and on the Steering Committee for Welcoming America’s One Region Initiative, and is a member of the American Association of Geographers.

    Darlene Xiomara Rodriguez was co-PI on funding received from the National Geographic Society and served on the national pilot program with Welcoming America One Region Initiative’s Steering Committee and Program Evaluation Team.

    – ref. Detroit’s population grew in 2023, 2024 − a strategy to welcome immigrants helps explain the turnaround from decades of population decline – https://theconversation.com/detroits-population-grew-in-2023-2024-a-strategy-to-welcome-immigrants-helps-explain-the-turnaround-from-decades-of-population-decline-255557

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –