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Category: Global

  • MIL-Evening Report: Massacre at 2 am – Israel resumes indiscriminate attacks against Gaza, killing 400+ people

    Israel says President Donald Trump green lit a scorched-earth bombing of Gaza that wiped out entire families and killed dozens of infants and other children.

    By Abubaker Abed in Deil Al-Balah, Gaza, and Jeremy Scahill of Drop Site News

    The US-backed Israeli government resumed its intense genocidal attacks on Gaza early yesterday morning, unleashing a massive wave of indiscriminate military strikes across the Strip and killing more than 410 people, including scores of children and women, according to local health officials.

    The massacre resulted in one of the largest single-day death tolls of the past 17 months, and also killed several members of Gaza’s government and a member of Hamas’s political bureau.

    The Trump administration said it was briefed ahead of the strikes, which began at approximately 2 am local time, and that the US fully supported Israel’s attacks.

    “The sky was filled with drones, quadcopters, helicopters, F-16 and F-35 warplanes. The firing from the tanks and vehicles didn’t stop,” said Abubaker Abed, a contributing journalist for Drop Site News who reports from Deir al-Balah, Gaza.

    “I didn’t sleep last night. I had a pang in my heart that something awful would happen. At 2 am, I tried to close my eyes. Once it happened, four explosions shook my home. The sky turned red and became heavily shrouded with plumes of smoke.”

    Abubaker said Israel’s attacks began with four strikes in Deir al-Balah.

    “Mothers’ wails and children’s screams echoed painfully in my ears. They struck a house near us. I didn’t know who to call. I couldn’t feel my knees. I was shivering with fear, and my family were harshly awakened,” he said.

    ‘My mother couldn’t breathe’
    “My mother couldn’t take a breath. My father searched around for me. We gathered in the middle of our home, knowing our end may be near. That’s the same feeling we have had for the 16 months of intense bombings and attacks.

    “The nightmare has chased us again.”

    The Israeli attacks pummeled cities across Gaza — from Rafah and Khan Younis in the south to Deir al-Balah in the center, and Gaza City in the north, where Israel carried out some of the heaviest bombing in areas already reduced to an apocalyptic landscape.

    Since the “ceasefire” took effect in January, more than half a million Palestinians returned to the north and many of them have been living in makeshift shelters or on the rubble of their former homes.

    Hospitals that already suffer from catastrophic damage from 16 months of relentless Israeli attacks and a dire lack of medical supplies struggled to handle the influx of wounded people, and local authorities issued an emergency call for blood donations.

    Late Tuesday morning, Dr Abdul-Qader Weshah, a senior emergency doctor at Al-Awda Hospital in Al-Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, described the situation.

    “We’ve just received another influx of injuries following a nearby strike. We’ve dealt with them. We are just preparing ourselves for more casualties as more bombings are expected to happen,” he told Drop Site News.

    ‘Horrified . . . awoke to screams’
    “Since the morning, we were horrified and awoke to the screams and pain of people. We’ve been treating many people, children and women in particular.”

    Weshah said they have had to transfer some of the wounded to other hospitals because of a lack of medical supplies.

    “We don’t have the means. Gaza’s hospitals are devoid of everything. Here at the hospital, we lack everything, including basic necessities like disinfectants and gauze. We don’t have enough beds for the casualties.

    We don’t have the capacity to treat the wounded. X-ray devices, magnetic resonance imaging, and simple things like stitches are not available. The hospital is in an unprecedented state of chaos.

    “The number of medical crews is not enough. Overwhelmed with injuries, we’re horrified and we don’t know why we are speaking to the world.

    “We’re working with less than the bare minimum in our hands. We need doctors, devices and supplies, and circumstances to do our job.”

    Al-Shifa hospital director Muhammad Abu Salmiya told Al Jazeera Arabic: “Every minute, a wounded person dies due to a lack of resources.”

    The Indonesia Hospital morgue in Beit Lahia, Gaza on March 18, 2025. Image: Abdalhkem Abu Riash/Anadolu

    Rising death toll
    Dr Zaher Al-Wahidi, the Director of the Information Unit at the Ministry of Health in Gaza, told Drop Site Tuesday afternoon that 174 children and 89 women were killed in the Israeli attacks. [Editors: Latest figures are 404 killed, including many children, and the toll is expected to rise as many are still buried beneath rubble.]

    Local health officials and witnesses said that the death toll was expected to rise dramatically because dozens of people are believed to be buried under the rubble of the structures where they were sleeping when the bombing began.

    “We can hear the voices of the victims under the rubble, but we can’t save them,” said a medical official at Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.

    Video posted on social media by Palestinians inside Gaza portrayed unspeakable scenes of the lifeless bodies of infants and small children killed in the bombings.

    Zinh Dahdooh, a dental student from Gaza City, posted an audio recording she said was of her neighbours screaming as their shelter was bombed, trapping them in the destruction.

    “Tonight, they bombed our neighbors,” she wrote on the social media site X. “They kept screaming until they died, and no ambulance came for them. How long are we supposed to live in this fear? How long!”

    According to local health officials, many strikes hit buildings or homes housing multiple generations of families.

    ‘Wiped out six families’
    “Israel in its strikes has wiped out at least six families. One in my hometown. The others are from Khan Younis, Rafah, and Gaza City. Some families have lost five or 10 members. Others have lost around 20,” Abubaker reported.

    “We talk about families killed from the children to the old. The Gharghoon family was bombed today in Rafah. The strikes have killed the father and his two daughters. Their mom and grandparents along with their uncles and aunts were also murdered, erasing the entire family from the civil registry.

    “We are talking about the erasure of entire families. Among Israel’s attacks in Deir al-Balah, Israel bombed the homes of the Mesmeh, Daher, and Sloot families.

    “More than 10 people, including seven women, from the Sloot family were killed, wiping them out entirely. The same has happened to the Abu-Teer, Barhoom, and other families.

    “This is extermination by design. This is genocide.”

    On Tuesday, Palestinian Islamic Jihad confirmed that “Abu Hamza,” the spokesman of its military wing, Al Quds Brigades, had been killed along with his wife and other family members.

    A hellish scene
     Israeli officials said they had been given a “green light” by President Donald Trump to resume heavy bombing of Gaza because of Hamas’s refusal to obey Trump’s directive to release all Israeli captives immediately.

    “All those who seek to terrorise not just Israel but also the United States of America, will see a price to pay,” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said on Fox News.

    “All hell will break loose.”

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement asserting that “Israel will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength”.

    Israeli media reported that the decision to resume heavy strikes against Gaza was made a week ago and was not in response to any imminent threat posed by Hamas.

    Israel, which has repeatedly violated the ceasefire that went into effect January 19, has sought to create new terms in a transparent effort to justify blowing up the deal entirely.

    “This is unconscionable,” said Muhannad Hadi, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

    “A cease-fire must be reinstated immediately. People in Gaza have endured unimaginable suffering.”

    Compounding the crisis in Gaza’s hospitals, Israel recently began blocking the entry of international medical workers to the Strip at unprecedented rates as part of a sweeping new policy that severely limits the number of aid organisations Israel will permit to operate in Gaza.

    Plumes of smoke from central Gaza just as Israel began its heavy bombing on Monday night. Image: Abubaker Abed/Drop Site News

    Editor’s note: Due to the ongoing Israeli attacks, Abubaker Abed relayed his reporting and eyewitness account to Jeremy Scahill by phone and text messages. This article is republished from Drop Site News under Creative Commons.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: West Papua liberation group demands Indonesia releases 12 arrested activists

    Asia Pacific Report

    A West Papuan liberation advocacy group has condemned the arrest of 12 activists by Indonesian police and demanded their immediate release.

    The West Papuan activists from the West Papua People’s Liberation Movement (GR-PWP) were arrested for handing out pamphlets supporting the new “Boycott Indonesia” campaign.

    The GR-PWP activists were arrested in Sentani and taken to Jayapura police station yesterday.

    In a statement by the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP), interim president Benny Wenda, said the activists were still “in the custody of the brutal Indonesian police”.

    The arrested activists were named as:

    Ones M. Kobak, GR-PWP leader, Sentani District
    Elinatan Basini, deputy secretary, GR-PWP Central
    Dasalves Suhun, GR-PWP member
    Matikel Mirin, GR-PWP member
    Apikus Lepitalen, GR-PWP member
    Mane Kogoya, GR-PWP member
    Obet Dogopia, GR-PWP member
    Eloy Weya, GR-PWP member
    Herry Mimin, GR-PWP member
    Sem. R Kulka, GR-PWP member
    Maikel Tabo, GR-PWP member
    Koti Moses Uropmabin, GR-PWP member

    “I demand that the Head of Police release the Sentani 12 from custody immediately,” Wenda said.

    “This was an entirely peaceful action mobilising support for a peaceful campaign.

    “The boycott campaign has won support from more than 90 tribes, political organisations, religious and customary groups — people from every part of West Papua are demanding a boycott of products complicit in the genocidal Indonesian occupation.”

    Wenda said the arrest demonstrated the importance of the Boycott for West Papua campaign.

    “By refusing to buy these blood-stained products, ordinary people across the world can take a stand against this kind of repression,” he said.

    “I invite everyone to hear the West Papuan cry and join our boycott campaign. No profit from stolen land.”

    Source: ULMWP

    The arrested Sentani 12 activists holding leaflets for the Boycott for West Papua campaign. Image: ULMWP

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Putin makes paltry concession to Ukraine in Trump’s self-aggrandizing ceasefire effort

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a proposal by United States President Donald Trump for Russia and Ukraine to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure for 30 days, according to statements by both the White House and the Kremlin.

    The deal, however, falls short of an unconditional 30-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. and Ukrainian officials earlier this month.

    Russia’s response to the initial U.S. ceasefire proposal has been predictable. Putin has argued that considerable changes need to be made to the original proposal, though he didn’t outright reject it.

    Given the earlier proposal is highly vague, this leads to one conclusion. Russia is playing for time to maximize its negotiating position.

    Trump’s latest phone call with Putin seemingly didn’t amount to any substantive changes, except for Russia’s agreement to refrain from targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure — a concession that might actually benefit Russia.

    The winter, when Ukraine is most vulnerable to Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, is almost done. Russia’s dependence on energy exports to support its war effort, however, remains constant, and any Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities will be framed as a breach by Russian authorities.

    Russia exploiting Trump’s desire for peace at any cost will probably be an ongoing trend.

    Trump’s goal

    The U.S. is playing an important role in peace negotiations. Under former president Joe Biden, this was due to the fact that the U.S. provided Ukraine with arms and moral support.

    Like most aspects of American policy, however, Trump dramatically pivoted, even attacking Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an infamous White House meeting in February. Now Trump is seeking a ceasefire, no matter what form it takes, to build a reputation as a statesman and distract Americans from domestic policy issues.



    Read more:
    What the U.S. ceasefire proposal means for Ukraine, Russia, Europe – and Donald Trump

    This development places Zelenskyy in a political bind. The U.S. in the past provided most of the military aid to Ukraine and the relationship between the Ukrainian leader and Trump is acrimonious.

    As such, even if Zelenskyy doesn’t agree with American ceasefire proposals, he must give the appearance of agreement or risk permanently alienating the mercurial Trump. Putin, in the meantime, will exploit any Ukrainian-American tensions.

    Current military situation

    The first year of the current phase of the Ukraine-Russia war was marked by mobility as both Russia and Ukraine made considerable advances and counteroffensives.

    Since the start of 2023, however, the conflict is increasingly defined as a war of attrition and a stalemate.

    Many analysts argue that such a war favours Russia. Wars of attrition are defined by slow, grinding advances whereby large casualties are a necessary byproduct for success. Given Russia’s material and personnel advantages, it can afford to suffer higher casualties.

    For the past several months, Russian forces have been making slow, steady advances against Ukrainian positions. Russia has suffered significant casualties in these advances, and they may not be sustainable over the long term.

    Putin is gambling that Ukraine’s and the international community’s will to fight will be broken by the time this is an issue. Trump’s push for a ceasefire at any cost suggests Putin may have a point.

    Any immediate ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine would leave Ukraine occupying Russian soil in the Kursk region, which Russia cannot accept.

    Russia’s immediate goal

    Ukraine’s 2024 incursion into the Kursk region provided the country and its people with a necessary respite from the war of attrition. Ukrainian forces, attacking an under-defended and unprepared part of the Russian front line, made significant advances into Russia.

    Ukraine’s ability to maintain territory around Kursk has also proven to be an embarrassment for Putin and the Russian establishment.

    Putin recently said Russian forces encircled Ukrainian forces in the salient, although Ukraine denies it. Regardless of the statement’s validity, it speaks to the importance both parties attach to the battle.

    Russia’s reputation

    This issue highlights a particular problem for the Russian leadership. Russia has done its utmost to frame its so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine as a success. An example is Russia’s formal annexation of four Ukrainian areas in 2022, despite not actually possessing the territory at the time.

    Any perception of the invasion of Ukraine as a failure is a non-starter for a Russian government concerned about its domestic standing.

    Ukraine possessing Russian territory, however, leads to questions in Russia about the war’s success. Ukraine, in exchange for relinquishing any Russian territory it seized during the war, would undoubtedly seek the return of Ukrainian territory.

    Russia has not even achieved its minimal goals of seizing the four Ukrainian regions it’s officially annexed. Therefore, it’s unlikely Putin would ever agree to the exchange of the territory it has actually already seized in exchange for the Kursk salient.

    Putin is following the Russian playbook of negotiating from strength. So long as Ukraine maintains Kursk, Russia will not negotiate in good faith.

    While Kursk is the most prominent area of Russia concern, there are other conditions that will become important in the future as Putin seeks to improve Russia’s negotiating position.

    It’s a lesson that Trump will soon learn, despite any and all efforts he or his administration make to frame things positively.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Putin makes paltry concession to Ukraine in Trump’s self-aggrandizing ceasefire effort – https://theconversation.com/putin-makes-paltry-concession-to-ukraine-in-trumps-self-aggrandizing-ceasefire-effort-252368

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Police struggle to identify the riskiest domestic abuse perpetrators – here’s how they can do better

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Barry Godfrey, Professor of Social Justice, University of Liverpool

    Shutterstock

    The government cannot achieve its target to halve violence against women and girls if it doesn’t address the most serious perpetrators – and it isn’t anywhere near knowing how to identify them. Our new research shows where they are going wrong, and how they can do better.

    The most recent statistics show that violence against women and girls affects one in 12 women in England and Wales. A quarter of domestic abuse incidents reported to police involve known, repeat perpetrators. But despite being told by government to identify and control the most serious perpetrators, police do not currently have systems good enough to do that.

    Currently, police forces use an algorithm to determine which offenders pose the greatest risk to women and girls. This is known as the RFGV algorithm – perpetrators are propelled up or down a list based on the recency, frequency, gravity (seriousness) of reported incidents, and the vulnerability of the victim.

    The gap in this approach is that it largely treats incidents as isolated, when they should be looked at as a whole. Research has also found it is used inconsistently between forces.

    Most police perpetrator lists contain hundreds or even thousands of people, making them difficult tools to use. They also do not seem to be able to distinguish who the most serious offenders are, with men with very similar profiles near the top, middle and bottom of the lists.

    We propose an alternative method, which would assess the whole of a perpetrator’s record of incidents. This would allow police to identify not only the most dangerous perpetrators, but also opportunities to better address their offending earlier on. This might be with diversion to programmes designed to support better choices and rehabilitation, or arrest and incarceration to prevent them harming other people.

    By joining together incidents recorded by police for individual perpetrators, we constructed detailed case studies using police officer’s notes. Here is a summary of two people who appear in one force’s perpetrator list.

    1. Male born mid 1980s, involved in 340 incidents over 20 years

    His offending begins with an indecent assault on a young teenage girl when he is 19. He is increasingly involved in drug-related offending in his 20s. He is later sentenced to six years in jail for arson endangering life. Released on conditional licence, he is re-convicted of the harassment of his ex-partner and recalled to prison.

    Release is followed by further offences until the mid-2010s when he is imprisoned again. When released, his offending is erratic (low-level public order, violence, threats, drug-related offending).

    Throughout his 30s, he frequently victimises partners and ex-partners. He has no settled address and is homeless at various points of his life. He is still subject to frequent mental health episodes.

    2. Male born early 1980s, involved in 396 incidents over 25 years

    In his teens he was involved in low-level thefts, criminal damage and breaches of an antisocial behaviour order. He was also suspected of selling drugs to schoolchildren, and imprisoned, aged 18, for drug-related violence.

    In his 20s he “associates with” children and is found with a missing vulnerable schoolgirl hiding in his house. He continues to commit offences of criminal damage, drug dealing, and stealing vehicles. Another missing teenage girl is found to be living with him.

    In his early 20s he very violently assaults and harasses much younger partners. He continues to commit public order offences and to threaten, harass, and assault current and ex-partners, kicking his pregnant partner in the stomach.

    In the early 2020s, police attend his ex-partner’s house following abandoned 999 calls – they find him with his hand over her mouth to stop her calling out to the police. He continues to be violent to ex-partners and his involvement in drug-related offending deepens. He is currently in prison for a violent offence.

    Who is the danger?

    Both men pose a real and severe threat of violence to women and girls as well as the public. But the RFGV algorithm places the first man more than a thousand places higher than the second. Clearly treating the offences they commit in isolation is not sufficient to distinguish which man poses the greatest risk.

    A life-course approach, which takes into account the type and pattern of offending as it develops over time, is less susceptible to fluctuations which move an offender rapidly up or down the priority lists. Therefore, it more reliably reflects who poses the greatest risk.

    The current system looks at incidents in isolation.
    Vadim Kulikov/Shutterstock

    A better ranking system is clearly required. The RFGV algorithm provides a “score”, but a more sophisticated system would also evaluate the direction of offending of individuals – is it escalating, more frequent, more serious?

    A life-course approach could be used separately or together with RFGV to allow police analysts to identify the most serious perpetrators. It may also be possible to use artificial intelligence to identify trends in offending and escalation of risk through analysis of thousands of police incident reports in real time.

    The system could then identify opportunities for early intervention which have been shown to be effective in reducing re-offending against current and future victims. It could also automatically trigger warnings to neighbourhood officers, specialist domestic abuse-trained officers, mental health services and so on.

    We won’t really know the full capability until new systems are tried, and evaluated. This also means including the voices of survivors and focusing on the lives of persistent perpetrators – often substance use, homelessness, estrangement, imprisonment and mental health problems are at play. The possibilities of learning from artificial intelligence or other technology should not be privileged over the very sources of the data such intelligence relies upon: victims’ experiences.

    David Gadd currenty receives research grant funding, via the University of Manchester from the ESRC, NIHR, and Greater Manchester Combined Authority.

    Barry Godfrey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Police struggle to identify the riskiest domestic abuse perpetrators – here’s how they can do better – https://theconversation.com/police-struggle-to-identify-the-riskiest-domestic-abuse-perpetrators-heres-how-they-can-do-better-247734

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: New report calls for return of human remains – but UK museums lack the resources to act

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By William Carruthers, Lecturer, School of Philosophical, Historical, and Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Essex

    Shutterstock/David Herraez Calzada

    The display of human remains in museums has long been a contentious issue. Last week, the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Afrikan Reparations (APPG-AR) published a report on the African human remains collected by British museums during, and due to, colonialism and the slave trade.

    Introduced by the MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy (the APPG-AR’s chair), and produced by Afford (The African Foundation for Development), the publication of the report, Laying Ancestors to Rest, is another high-profile and meaningful intervention in an area where developments now seem inevitable.

    The report makes a number of recommendations. First, that the sale of human remains should be made illegal in the UK. It also suggests that the Human Tissue Act of 2004 should be amended to make stipulations about remains older than 100 years.

    This would include banning their public display without consent from the Human Tissue Authority and ensuring that museums obtain a licence from the authority for their storage. It’s further recommended that the UK parliament’s culture, media and sport committee should launch an inquiry into restitution.

    Laying Ancestors to Rest should be welcomed. It seems likely to be successful in achieving at least one of its recommendations. Calling for a ban on the trade in human remains in Britain, as the report does, is not particularly controversial.

    However, the report’s blanket approach towards banning the display of human remains without consent is, in the present environment, unlikely to succeed.

    This article is part of our State of the Arts series. These articles tackle the challenges of the arts and heritage industry – and celebrate the wins, too.

    The report itself hints at the reasons for this. The success of its recommendations rests on the financial health of the UK’s museum landscape. Resources matter, not least in terms of the relationships which those resources allow museums to build.

    Instead of a blanket response, developments in this area are likely to be piecemeal – both due to the significant effort required to carry out the task effectively and the limited resources many museums have to do so. In that sense, it is unclear whether calling for a blanket ban now is all that useful, other than as a wake-up call.

    This point is not to absolve museums for their historical part in this situation. It is though, to argue that work in understanding the collections of human remains held by British museums – where they come from, who they might belong to – has, at times (and certainly not in all circumstances), been happening. It is also to clarify what the often slow-paced norms of effective understanding and restitution are.

    In 2020, for example, the University of Oxford’s Pitt-Rivers Museum removed its well-known collection of tsantsa (shrunken heads) from display. The removal happened with a view to working with Shuar and Achuar delegates to decide on the best way forward with regard to the care and display of the human remains. That work continues.

    In 2020 the Pitt-Rivers Museum removed its well-known collection of shrunken heads from display.
    Shutterstock/John Wreford

    A few years earlier, Laura Peers, then curator of the Americas collections at the museum, wrote about the slow, quiet and bureaucratic process of returning a single femur “collected by a missionary as a medical curiosity, from an Indigenous nation with whom I have longstanding professional and personal relationships”.

    Such work is, when it happens, painstaking and careful. Even with the best of intentions, it is not a fast process

    Funding restitution

    The often-halting nature of that work is likely to continue. Museum professionals – particularly newer museum professionals – know that this work has to happen and are, I would argue, in large part invested in doing it.

    In a contemporary funding environment marked by almost continuous cuts, even the most dedicated staff will find their actions curtailed. They may, in some cases, be able to remove remains from display, as the report recommends (and as the Pitt Rivers Museum has done).

    However, securing consent for the limited display of mummified Egyptian bodies, for instance, will be challenging. Without funding, it is difficult to build the relationships necessary for conversations about consent, ownership and restitution.

    In his afterword to the report, Dan Hicks of the University of Oxford writes that “this is a time of immense hope and optimism for British museums”. The problem is that that hope in part rests on the funding that he also admits has been subject to “austerity and swingeing cuts”.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    The contradiction is not difficult to see – particularly when the report’s recommendations are similar to the 2018 one written for French collections by cultural researchers Felwine Sarr and Bénédicte Savoy.

    The Restitution of African Cultural Heritage: Toward a New Relational Ethics, which was commissioned by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has been widely read. It has catalysed thinking beyond current international legal norms when it comes to restitution.

    Yet progress on the goal of restitution even in France has been slow, at least in part due to the time involved in building the new relationships that the report calls for. There is also the question of whether attitudes regarding restitution within African countries are consistent. By February 2024, France had returned only 26 objects to Benin and one (a sword) to Senegal.

    Worse still, the legislative picture across British collections remains complex. Collections such as the Pitt Rivers Museum have been able to move on restitution because they are university collections. As such, they are subject to different legislation than “national” collections such as the British Museum or the V&A, which were established by acts of parliament and are funded by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport.

    As the V&A’s director, Tristram Hunt, recently wrote, the UK’s national museums remain in “debilitating stasis” on restitution. Hunt argues that this is the case because these collections are hampered by the proscriptions of the 1983 National Heritage Act. That act – by rule or by choice, dependent on your view – effectively forbids such collections from disposing of objects, including human remains.

    As Laying Ancestors to Rest recommends, this situation needs to change. The likelihood is, however, that any change will come more slowly and with more deliberation even than the report itself acknowledges is necessary.

    Progress on this issue is by no means impossible. But without real political will and without the money to back it up, a blanket approach to the display and restitution of human remains in British museums remains difficult to enforce.

    William Carruthers works for the University of Essex as Lecturer in Heritage.

    – ref. New report calls for return of human remains – but UK museums lack the resources to act – https://theconversation.com/new-report-calls-for-return-of-human-remains-but-uk-museums-lack-the-resources-to-act-252547

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why I’m training Colombian Amazonians to become archaeology tourist guides

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By José Iriarte, Professor of Archaeology, University of Exeter

    Professor Jamie Hampson discusses the interpretation of rock art with diploma students in front of the Tapirs rock art panel. Jose Iriarte, CC BY-NC-ND

    Diana Vera, a passionate local guide from Serranía de la Lindosa, Colombia, leads a group of sweaty and panting European tourists through the hot, lush Amazonian rainforest. Together, they climb the flattop hill (known as tepui) of Nuevo Tolima. Their destination? A vast, ancient painted wall perched at the very top of the tepui that whispers stories from a time long past.

    As the tourists reach the site, Vera brings history to life. She recounts how archaeology tells us that the first humans arrived here some 13,000 years ago.

    She explains how they left their mark on these landscapes by painting their stories, beliefs and visions of the world on the walls of these hills. Because archaeologists have closely analysed the paintings and their chemical signatures, she can explain how paintings were crafted with local ochre using their fingers and brushes.

    She gestures towards the intricate depictions of animals, plants and people, pausing at an especially intriguing image – a now-extinct ice age “palaeolama” or prehistoric llama.

    Then, she shows them a fascinating hybrid figure – a fusion of bird, deer and human. Much of this artwork is probably shamanic in nature – possibly representing spiritual transformations, most likely induced by hallucinogenic rituals or prolonged fasting.

    After Colombia’s peace process was signed in 2016 between participants in a violent civil war, the rock art of Serranía de la Lindosa became a major draw for research and tourism.

    As well as attracting visitors, this cultural and natural heritage has sparked positive social change in the region. Families of more than 100 tourist guides benefit because tourism provides an economic alternative for these communities.

    It’s a path away from illicit activities such as coca cultivation, destructive deforestation for cattle ranching or joining dissident factions of the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) guerrilla movement.

    Until now, these local guides have largely relied on self-taught knowledge. There are no universities in the region to provide formal education. Little archaeological research has been conducted in this area, so much of its history and heritage remains unexplored.

    To address this gap, my colleagues and I have co-created a diploma degree in cultural heritage management for local tourism guides.

    Our team at the University of Exeter worked closely with Colombian partners including the University of Antioquia, the Secretariat of Culture and Tourism of Guaviare Department and the Geographical Society of Colombia to make sure that the diploma met the needs of local people. This diploma is based on knowledge from our systematic study of archaeology and rock art of the region, as part of a European Research Council-funded project called the LastJourney project.

    A new cultural heritage diploma degree trains archaeology tourist guides in the Colombian Amazon.

    Local community archaeology tourism benefits the heritage, the people and the rainforest. As Colombian archaeologist Javier Aceituno states in The Painted Forest, the 2022 book we co-wrote: “The paintings need the people, and the people need the paintings.”

    The Colombian Institute of Anthropology and History, the national heritage authority, has officially designated la Lindosa as an archaeological protected area. However, like many national parks in the Amazon, there are very limited resources for enforcement and preservation of these large rural areas. Local communities can help protect these rock paintings by controlling access and providing guided visits to the sites.

    Forty people took part in the first iteration of this three-month-long diploma in 2023-2024. Each of three 30-hour modules are delivered in rural communities of Cerro Azul, Nuevo Tolima and Raudal del Guayabero in Guaviare department, Colombia.

    Alongside my colleagues from the University of Exeter and the University of Antioquia, I taught modules in communal village buildings, where we conducted experimental archaeology. This included manufacturing stone tools and recreating paint recipes from scratch, providing a practical, hands-on learning experience bringing archaeology to life.*

    This diploma has empowered communities to take a stronger role in managing their archaeological and bio-cultural heritage. By deepening their understanding of this unique history, communities can better protect and manage their heritage, ultimately enriching the tourist experience.

    Three graduates from the course also visited UK archaeological sites, including Stonehenge in Wiltshire, to explore how such sites are preserved and presented to tourists abroad. At the Ancient Technology Centre in Dorset they learnt how visitors can experience archaeology in creative ways through hands-on experiences and demonstrations of ancient crafts and sustainable building techniques.

    Archaeologists and rock art specialists aren’t just sharing their expertise. My colleagues and I are also learning from Indigenous participants. Victor Caycedo, of the Indigenous Amazonian Desana ethnicity, and Ismael Sierra, from the Tukano people of southern Colombia, bring invaluable ancestral knowledge to the diploma.

    They have shared insights into the shamanic and animistic worldviews that have shaped these landscapes for centuries. Their perspectives add a deeper, living dimension to the study of rock art, bridging past and present in a way that only those rooted in these traditions can reveal, as recently published in the journal Arts.

    For Diana Vera, this diploma represents “learning about heritage and the ancient lifeways of the people of La Lindosa”. She told me that she now better understands “the union of three villages with a single purpose of conservation and preservation” and has a greater sense of belonging to these ancestral places and nature. Most of all, this diploma marks the opportunity for “a new beginning” in this region by introducing more sustainable and responsible tourism, she said.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    José Iriarte receives funding from the European Research Council, Arts and Humanities Research Council (UK), British Academy, National Geographic, Wenner Gren Foundation for Anthropological Research, FAPESP (Brazil), and CAPES (Brazil).

    – ref. Why I’m training Colombian Amazonians to become archaeology tourist guides – https://theconversation.com/why-im-training-colombian-amazonians-to-become-archaeology-tourist-guides-251651

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nuclear deterrence: can Britain and France take on America’s role in defending Europe against Russian aggression?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul van Hooft, Research Leader, Defence and Security, RAND

    European doubts about deterrence predate the current US administration. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and its growing reliance on nuclear coercion to ward off Nato support, brought the importance of nuclear weapons to the foreground again for the first time since the cold war.

    Even after the invasion, the US continued to prioritise the Indo-Pacific. It questioned the sufficiency of its nuclear arsenal as China’s weapon stockpile grew and delivery systems improved.

    A bipartisan US congressional commission concluded that the Chinese and Russian arsenals should be seen as a joint “two-nuclear-peer” problem, with North Korea an additional disrupting presence.

    Within this context, European leaders are floating alternatives for deterrence in Europe. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has again affirmed that the French nuclear deterrent has a “European dimension”.

    The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, registered his interest in the idea of the French deterrent being extended to include its European allies. But he also signalled that his country might want to develop its own deterrent.

    The incoming German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has also noted the need to engage with the French and British deterrents. So, could French and British nuclear weapons be enough to deter Russia and reassure European allies?

    Russia has roughly as many weapons as the US. Its arsenal comprises approximately 1,700 deployed strategic weapons and 1,000-2,000 other lower-yield, “smaller” so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons, and another 2,500 non-deployed weapons.

    This is vastly more than France and the UK which have 290 and 225 respectively, or 515 in total.

    Yet, with those numbers both European states should have sufficient strategic weapons to cause unacceptable damage to Moscow and St Petersburg. Their weapons are carried by constantly patrolling nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines – which, are concealed in the ocean far away and are therefore highly likely to survive a first-strike attack. These weapons should be considered credible deterrents for existential threats to either France or the UK.

    Unlike the US, France and the UK are in Europe and cannot consider their security distinct from each other or from Europe. The US, meanwhile, had to have a large and flexible arsenal with tactical nuclear weapons, and a large conventional presence in Europe simply to mount a credible argument, not least to its European allies, that it would actually protect Europe, with nuclear weapons as a last resort.

    The importance of needing to convince Russia of how serious Nato is about deterrence is a matter of record. When they met in Paris in June 1961, the then French leader, General Charles de Gaulle, expressed doubts to the then US president, John F. Kennedy, as to how serious the US was about its defence of Europe, particularly given the uncertainty at the time of the future security of Berlin.

    De Gaulle asked asked Kennedy: “Would you trade New York for Paris?”. His point was that if he wasn’t convinced, would the Russians be? So it’s not just about numbers of warheads. It’s about the defensive posture overall.

    Likely scenarios

    The issue is not existential deterrence but scenarios where French and British survival are not directly threatened. Neither has the option to escalate with so-called “tactical” (or non-strategic) weapons when non-vital interests are at risk – though France could fire a Rafale-launched nuclear “warning shot”.

    Meanwhile, Russia has 1,000–2,000 “tactical” nuclear weapons, which, despite the misleading term, are still entirely capable of levelling a city.

    In case of a conflict in Europe, these could provide military and signalling options between doing nothing and catastrophic escalation. Rather than a full-scale invasion, Russia is more likely to test Nato’s unity by pressuring a Baltic state and using nuclear threats to deter any Nato allies intervening in support. France and the UK would struggle to credibly threaten use of strategic weapons in response.

    Europe’s solution may lie in advanced conventional weapons to deter Russian aggression by building the ability to raise the costs in early stages of a conflict through what is called a strategy of denial. Such capabilities include long-range precision strikes, fifth generation airpower – such as the American F-35 fighter and the French, German and UK alternatives presently being developed – and integrated air and missile defence.

    Given the poor performance of Russia’s own air and missile defence in Ukraine, they could target Russian military units attacking or operating within Nato territory, their reinforcements and their logistics, while denying Russia’s use of missiles. Europe is already investing in cruise missiles, as well as developing their own European long-range strike approach and missile defence.

    Through precision, stealth and low-altitude flight, these weapons could also threaten strategic targets deep in Russia – potentially a more viable, less destabilising alternative to expanding French and British nuclear arsenals, or adding a third nuclear power in Europe.

    No time to waste

    Politically, however, there is a need for more than hardware. European states should find an institutional forum to coordinate deterrence. This means either convincing France to return to Nato’s nuclear planning group or creating another council for European deterrence with France, the UK, and other key European states like Germany and Poland.

    Those and other European armed forces could also conduct conventional operations in support of nuclear operations exercises together with France and the UK, specifically the French air force with its air-launched warheads.

    Simply put, there are material and political solutions to European deterrence problems if the US turns out to be preoccupied by events in Asia. The real constraint that France and the UK, and the rest of Europe, now face is how to build both the hardware and habits of conventional and nuclear deterrence in Europe in little or no time at all.

    Paul van Hooft received a Stanton Nuclear Security Foundation research grant in 2018.

    – ref. Nuclear deterrence: can Britain and France take on America’s role in defending Europe against Russian aggression? – https://theconversation.com/nuclear-deterrence-can-britain-and-france-take-on-americas-role-in-defending-europe-against-russian-aggression-252338

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can a daily nap do more harm than good? A sleep researcher explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Talar Moukhtarian, Assistant Professor in Mental Health, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick

    Olga Rolenko/Shutterstock

    You’re in the middle of the afternoon, eyelids heavy, focus slipping. You close your eyes for half an hour and wake up feeling recharged. But later that night, you’re tossing and turning in bed, wondering why you can’t drift off. That midday snooze which felt so refreshing at the time might be the reason.

    Naps have long been praised as a tool for boosting alertness, enhancing mood, strengthening memory, and improving productivity. Yet for some, they can sabotage nighttime sleep.

    Napping is a double-edged sword. Done right, it’s a powerful way to recharge the brain, improve concentration, and support mental and physical health. Done wrong, it can leave you groggy, disoriented, and struggling to fall asleep later. The key lies in understanding how the body regulates sleep and wakefulness.

    Most people experience a natural dip in alertness in the early afternoon, typically between 1pm and 4pm. This isn’t just due to a heavy lunch – our internal body clock, or circadian rhythm, creates cycles of wakefulness and tiredness throughout the day. The early afternoon lull is part of this rhythm, which is why so many people feel drowsy at that time.

    Studies suggest that a short nap during this period – ideally followed by bright light exposure – can help counteract fatigue, boost alertness, and improve cognitive function without interfering with nighttime sleep. These “power naps” allow the brain to rest without slipping into deep sleep, making it easier to wake up feeling refreshed.

    But there’s a catch: napping too long may result in waking up feeling worse than before. This is due to “sleep inertia” – the grogginess and disorientation that comes from waking up during deeper sleep stages.

    Once a nap extends beyond 30 minutes, the brain transitions into slow-wave sleep, making it much harder to wake up. Studies show that waking from deep sleep can leave people feeling sluggish for up to an hour. This can have serious implications if they then try to perform safety-critical tasks, make important decisions or operate machinery, for example. And if a nap is taken too late in the day, it can eat away from the “sleep pressure build-up” – the body’s natural drive for sleep – making it harder to fall asleep at night.

    When napping is essential

    For some, napping is essential. Shift workers often struggle with fragmented sleep due to irregular schedules, and a well-timed nap before a night shift can boost alertness and reduce the risk of errors and accidents. Similarly, people who regularly struggle to get enough sleep at night – whether due to work, parenting or other demands – may benefit from naps to bank extra hours of sleep that compensate for their sleep loss.

    Nonetheless, relying on naps instead of improving nighttime sleep is a short-term fix rather than a sustainable solution. People with chronic insomnia are often advised to avoid naps entirely, as daytime sleep can weaken their drive to sleep at night.

    Certain groups use strategic napping as a performance-enhancing tool. Athletes incorporate napping into their training schedules to speed up muscle recovery and improve sports-related parameters such as reaction times and endurance. Research also suggests that people in high-focus jobs, such as healthcare workers and flight crews, benefit from brief planned naps to maintain concentration and reduce fatigue-related mistakes. Nasa has found that a 26-minute nap can improve performance of long-haul flight operational staff by 34%, and alertness by 54%.

    How to nap well

    To nap effectively, timing and environment matter. Keeping naps between ten and 20 minutes prevents grogginess. The ideal time is before 2pm – napping too late can push back the body’s natural sleep schedule.

    The best naps happen in a cool, dark and quiet environment, similar to nighttime sleep conditions. Eye masks and noise-cancelling headphones can help, particularly for those who nap in bright or noisy settings.

    Despite the benefits, napping isn’t for everyone. Age, lifestyle and underlying sleep patterns all influence whether naps help or hinder. A good nap is all about strategy – knowing when, how, and if one should nap at all.

    For some it’s a life hack, improving focus and energy. For others, it’s a slippery slope into sleep disruption. The key is to experiment and observe how naps affect your overall sleep quality.

    Done wisely, naps can be a valuable tool. Done poorly, they might be the reason you’re staring at the ceiling at midnight.

    Talar Moukhtarian previously received funding from UKRI Medical Research Council (MRC).

    – ref. Can a daily nap do more harm than good? A sleep researcher explains – https://theconversation.com/can-a-daily-nap-do-more-harm-than-good-a-sleep-researcher-explains-251630

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Women’s sexual pleasure is still taboo – but the Kamasutra tells a different story

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sharha Sharha, PhD Candidate in Kamasutra Feminism, Cardiff Metropolitan University

    A carved erotic scene on the outer wall of temple in Khajuraho complex, India. Cortyn/Shutterstock

    For some people, the Kamasutra is little more than a name associated with condom brands, scented oils and chocolates shaped into erotic positions. In India, where sex remains a taboo subject, this ancient sex manual has often been reduced to merely a “dirty book”.

    But beneath this narrow view lies a deeper message: the Kamasutra is a treatise on sexual autonomy, one that could be revolutionary for women.

    In Indian society, women’s sexual pleasure is often invisible, buried beneath layers of cultural silence. Women are often taught to suppress their desires, their voices stifled by traditions that prioritise male needs. Yet, it was in this very country that the Kamasutra was written.

    Composed in the ancient Sanskrit language in the 3rd century by the Indian philosopher Vatsyayana, the Kamasutra is more than a book about sexual positions. The word “kama” means love, sex, desire and pleasure, while “sutra” translates to a treatise. The text explores relationships, ethics and social norms. It offers a framework for mutual respect and understanding between partners.

    In her 2016 book Redeeming the Kamasutra, scholar of Indian culture and society Wendy Doniger argues that Vatsyayana was an advocate of women’s pleasure as well as stressing their right to education and the freedom to express desire. Far from reinforcing male dominance, the Kamasutra originally emphasised the importance of mutual enjoyment and consent. It presents sex as a shared experience rather than a male conquest.

    Sir Richard Francis Burton (1821 – 1890).
    Rischgitz/Stringer/Wikimedia

    The perception of the Kamasutra as a male-centred sex manual can be traced back to its first English translation by Sir Richard Burton in 1883.

    Burton, a British soldier and explorer, omitted or altered passages that highlighted women’s autonomy. It shifted their role from active participants to passive recipients of male pleasure.

    In contrast, scholars such as Ganesh Saili have argued that the Kamasutra originally depicted women as equal partners in intimacy. According to the text, women communicated their needs through gestures, emotions and words, ensuring that their pleasure was just as valued as men’s. Importantly, conversation played a central role in intimacy, reinforcing the necessity of a woman’s consent before having sex.

    Despite this rich history, Indian society continues to largely suppress discussions around female sexuality. Indian sex educator and journalist Leeza Mangaldas argues that women’s sexual pleasure remains a taboo topic, policed by cultural expectations that dictate women must remain silent, subservient and sexually inactive before marriage.

    Social scientist, Deepa Narayan, argues that this suppression begins at home. Girls are often taught to deny their own bodies and prioritise male desires.

    The title page of the 1883 edition of Sir Richard Burton’s translation.
    Ms Sarah Welch/Wikimedia, CC BY

    This control extends to patriarchal social norms that uphold virginity as a virtue for women while imposing no such expectation on men. Sex is framed as something women “give” rather than something they experience. Pleasure is seen as a right for males but merely an afterthought for females. Sex is for men but for women, it is only for producing babies.

    Yet the Kamasutra itself tells a different story. In its original form, it described women as active participants in their pleasure and compared their sensuality to the delicacy of flowers – requiring care, attention and respect.

    My own research explores “Kamasutra feminism”. This is the idea that this ancient text is not just about sex but about sexual autonomy. It challenges patriarchal norms by promoting women’s freedom to articulate their desires and take control of their pleasure. The Kamasutra rejects the notion that women’s sexuality should be regulated or repressed. Instead, it advocates for mutual satisfaction and consent.

    Doniger describes the Kamasutra as a feminist text, citing its emphasis on women choosing their partners, expressing their desires freely and engaging in pleasurable sexual relationships. It recognises economic independence as a crucial factor in women’s sexual autonomy. Financial freedom is linked to the ability to make personal choices.

    An original Kamasutra manuscript page preserved in the vaults of the Raghunath Temple in Jammu & Kashmir.
    Ms Sarah Welch/Wikimedia, CC BY

    Patriarchy versus sexual liberty

    Ultimately, the Kamasutra represents a clash between patriarchy – where women’s sexuality is controlled – and a vision of sexual liberty. It offers an alternative narrative, one where seduction is about mutual enjoyment rather than male domination. Its teachings encourage open discussions about intimacy, allowing women to reclaim their voices in relationships.

    For more than a century, the Kamasutra has been misinterpreted, its radical message buried beneath layers of censorship and cultural shame. But if we look beyond its erotic reputation, we find a text that speaks to the importance of consent, equality and female agency.

    Reclaiming the Kamasutra as a guide for sexual empowerment could help dismantle deeply ingrained taboos and reshape the conversation around women’s pleasure. In a world where female desire is still widely policed, this ancient manuscript reminds us that women’s pleasure is not a luxury, but a right.

    Sharha Sharha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Women’s sexual pleasure is still taboo – but the Kamasutra tells a different story – https://theconversation.com/womens-sexual-pleasure-is-still-taboo-but-the-kamasutra-tells-a-different-story-251987

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Argentina: despite the scandals, Milei’s politics are here to stay

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Juan Pablo Ferrero, Senior Lecturer in Latin American Politics, University of Bath

    The Argentinian president, Javier Milei, is going through the toughest moment of his short but remarkable political career. He is facing impeachment calls – as well as legal action – over his promotion of a cryptocurrency on social media.

    The cryptocoin $Libra, which Milei mentioned in a social media post on February 14, quickly rose in value before nosediving, causing severe losses for people who had invested in it. Milei has insisted that his post did not constitute an endorsement.

    “I’m a techno-optimist … and this was proposed to me as an instrument to help fund Argentine projects,” he said in a television interview. “It’s true that in trying to help out those Argentines, I took a slap in the face.”

    I doubt this is it for Milei. But even if it is the beginning of the end, Milei’s politics are here to stay. His leadership style, discourse and actions represent an emerging constituency with both a present and a future.

    This is because Milei is not, in my opinion, the effect of a crisis of representation. He is instead a faithful representative of a new reactive society emerging worldwide, which is largely sceptical of institutional mediation and values problem solvers and strong executives.

    People at the inauguration of Javier Milei in December 2023.
    Facundo Florit / Shutterstock

    To explore this phenomenon, imagine if you will, “Ricardo”, a fictitious yet representative member of a vulnerable segment of Argentina’s workforce. People like Ricardo returned to the labour market after the pandemic with precarious jobs and lower wages.

    He is a delivery worker who uses multiple digital platforms to earn a living. His life, characterised by the gig economy and labour informality, reflects a broader trend affecting around 50% of workers in Argentina.

    Ricardo had previously voted for Argentina’s left-wing leader, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. But he voted for Milei in the last election, as did many others, and says he would vote for Milei again today. His sympathy for Milei has grown over the year he has been in office.

    According to a recent poll put together by political consultancy firm Tendencias, 89.6% of those who voted for Milei in the 2023 general election were happy with their choice. A growing share of Argentina’s population seemingly approves of the Milei administration.

    During the pandemic, Ricardo’s ability to support his family was diminished by government-imposed restrictions on travel and movement. These restrictions, which were often violently enforced by security forces, pushed him into poverty. The rate of poverty in Argentina increased to over 40% during the pandemic.

    This experience led Ricardo to feel a sense of satisfaction when Milei began mass layoffs of public employees to cut public spending. He thought this was payback time for those in the public sector, with job security, who did not have to endure what he had to during the pandemic.

    For Ricardo, they were all ñoquis (gnocchi), a slang term widely used in Argentina to refer to public employees who receive a salary but allegedly do little work. These workers are called ñoquis because many Argentinians traditionally eat gnocchi on the 29th day of every month, around the time people receive their monthly paychecks.

    Ricardo consumes all of the short clips circulating online from television interviews and talks at international forums of Milei “destroying” career politicians, whom he calls la casta (the caste). Milei sees the main aim of the caste as the reproduction of themselves, so he advocates for a small state or no state at all. Milei believes that nearly everything should be privatised.

    While Ricardo thinks politicians should be compensated for their job, many from across Argentina’s political spectrum have become extremely wealthy, so he’s with Milei on this one too. He even wears a chainsaw as a key ring – a nod to Milei’s promise to slash the size of the state.

    Ricardo acknowledges that life has become very expensive in Argentina since Milei took office. This is because, while inflation has gone down, the Argentinian peso has gained value, making Argentina one of the most expensive countries in the world. However, he believes this remains a price worth paying for a stable and prosperous Argentina.

    The aforementioned poll suggests that many Argentinians feel that their economic situation is better than a year ago, and will improve over the course of the next six months. Inflation, which was the leading concern in most polls ahead of the election, has fallen to sixth place.

    Ricardo is persuaded by Milei’s mantra: “If printing money would end poverty, printing diplomas would end stupidity”. And in recent times, Ricardo has spent his scarce leisure moments watching videos on his phone where internet influencers teach him how to multiply his dwindling income by investing in cryptocurrencies that promise high returns in a short time.

    In Argentina, like many other areas of the world, the appetite for gambling or investing in highly risky ventures such as cryptocurrency has multiplied as a means to win money fast. This is especially true among young people, often with devastating consequences.

    Representation of a new society

    There is a new political subject emerging worldwide marked by the precariousness of new forms of work, whose socialisation occurs in the digital world dominated by influencers. These people see the state not only as unnecessary, but as an enemy to be destroyed and distrust all institutional political intermediaries. Milei represents this new society.

    The process by which an issue becomes a subject of political debate and action has also changed. Solutions to single issues have replaced political programmes with complex visions about the future as the main source of popular validation. Big personalities can carry this forward more successfully than bureaucratic political parties.

    Presidents have become more like city majors judged by their ability to provide solutions to a single issue. In the case of Milei, it’s inflation. For Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, it’s security. And for Donald Trump in the US, it’s China.

    The figureheads of new political formations might change, but the politics of these formations will not.

    Juan Pablo Ferrero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Argentina: despite the scandals, Milei’s politics are here to stay – https://theconversation.com/argentina-despite-the-scandals-mileis-politics-are-here-to-stay-250183

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The 30,000 year old vulture that reveals a completely new type of fossilisation

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Valentina Rossi, Postdoctoral researcher, Palaeontology, University College Cork

    Fossilised feathers of the wing of a Pleistocene Vulture from central Italy. Edoardo Terranova, CC BY-SA

    A surprising discovery in the feathers of a fossil vulture from central Italy has revealed that volcanic deposits can preserve delicate tissue structures in unprecedented detail, offering new insights into the fossilisation process.

    In 1889 in the foothills of Mount Tuscolo, 25km south-east of Rome, farm workers discovered something extraordinary. While digging the ground for a new vineyard, they encountered a layer of bedrock with a strange void. This contained the skeleton of a large bird, including apparent imprints of its plumage on the surrounding rocks.

    The bizarre find prompted the landowner to call in the renowned Italian geologist Romolo Meli. By the time of Meli’s arrival on site, however, the workers had consigned most of the fossil blocks to the waste pile, and many were broken.

    After salvaging most of the rocks, Meli identified the specimen as a fossilised griffon vulture. He also noted that the preservation of the plumage was unusual considering the host rock was volcanic.



    Read more:
    Pompeii: ancient remains are helping scientists learn what happens to a body caught in a volcanic eruption

    Meli produced a report about the discovery later that year, and then the fossil vulture faded into obscurity and most of the rock samples were lost. All that remains today are blocks containing the plumage of one wing and the imprint of the bird’s head and neck.

    A few years ago, advances in analytical approaches to studying fossils prompted researchers to become more interested in the specimen, which probably dates from around 30,000 years ago. In 2014 one of us (Dawid Iurino) led a new study using CT scanning (computed tomography) of the imprint of the head and neck.

    This revealed three-dimensional details of the bird’s eyelids, tongue and the texture of its skin and neck (see the video below). Such fine preservation of biological features exceeds even that of the victims of Pompeii.

    In our new study, we then examined the feathers and it became clear that we were looking at something out of the ordinary. Our preliminary microscope analyses surprisingly revealed that the feathers, which have an orange colour that contrasts with the host rock, were preserved in three dimensions.

    Three-dimensional fossil feathers are more commonly found in amber, whereas those in rocks are normally two-dimensional thin layers of dark-coloured organic matter.

    Yet there were still important unanswered questions around how the feathers were preserved in a volcanic deposit, so we carried out some further investigations.

    A new way to fossilise

    The fossil feather.
    Edoardo Terranova, CC BY-SA

    A more detailed microscopic analysis revealed that this three-dimensional preservation extended to the delicate branches of the feathers. We could even see feather structures that were less than one micron (0.001mm) wide, specifically tiny cell organelles (part of a cell) called melanosomes whose pigments contribute to the colouration of feathers.

    Even stranger was the fact that the fossil feather was made of a mineral called zeolite. This mineral is not associated with any other fossil tissues, revealing a means of fossilisation that has never been recorded before. It came about because zeolite forms via the dissolution of volcanic ash and glass.

    The fossil’s level of tissue detail, plus the chemical composition of the feathers, indicates some important differences between the pyroclastic flows that entombed the vulture and the flow that buried Pompeii.

    The ancient residents of Pompeii were buried alive by hot fast-moving, turbulent flows of gas and ashes known as pyroclastic flows, at temperatures exceeding 500°C. At these temperatures, their soft tissues were vaporised, leaving only skeletons and charcoal.

    On the other hand, we do not know exactly how the vulture died. It may have been asphyxiated by toxic clouds of volcanic gas, or may have been killed directly by the pyroclastic flow. What we do know is that the flow was relatively cool because it was diluted with water or far from the volcanic source.

    The processes by which the volcanic sediment hardened into rock and formed zeolite happened relatively quickly (within days), which may explain why delicate structures such as feathers can preserve well in three dimensions. This opens up the possibility that many other ash-rich volcanic rocks may contain remarkable fossils, and are therefore exciting new targets for palaeontological research.

    Valentina Rossi received funding from The Palaeontological Association (UK) and The Paleontological Society (USA). She is currently receiving funding from the European Research Council (H2020-ERC-CoG-1010003293-PALAEOCHEM awarded to Prof. Maria Mcnamara).

    Maria McNamara receives funding from the European Research Council and Research Ireland.

    Dawid Iurino does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The 30,000 year old vulture that reveals a completely new type of fossilisation – https://theconversation.com/the-30-000-year-old-vulture-that-reveals-a-completely-new-type-of-fossilisation-252400

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Trump could learn from the British and Irish trade war of the 1930s

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Carr, Lecturer in History and Politics, Anglia Ruskin University

    The Blue Water Bridge border crossing connects Michigan in the US with Ontario in Canada. ehrlif/Shutterstock

    During his election campaign, US president Donald Trump claimed the word tariff is “more beautiful than ‘love’”. Now in office, Trump has targeted his closest neighbours and trading partners with those self same policies. He initially concentrated his levies on Canada, China and Mexico – two of which share land borders with the US – before implementing blanket tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports.

    History shows us the impacts these policies can have. In 1932, during Neville Chamberlain’s time as British chancellor, the country slapped what became 40% levies on key exports (including cattle, butter and other agricultural products) from the then Irish Free State. These were promptly met by Irish retaliation on British goods including coal and steel.

    A trade war ensued – and lasted in some form for almost six years.

    As with Trump today, raising tariffs is often partly about some other policy goal. As far as the British-Irish trade war goes, I show in my new book Britain and Ireland From the Treaty to the Troubles that the initial beef (pun intended) was over a decades-long debt obligation. These annuities, as they were known, were predominantly owed by Irish farmers to Anglo-Irish landowners, and were widely disliked.

    In early 1932 Éamon de Valera secured electoral victory in Ireland for his Fianna Fáil party, partly on the basis of refusing to hand over this money. At £5 million, it was a significant sum for a government that took in around £25 million annually.

    Instead, de Valera planned to use the annuities for domestic purposes. He wanted to reward his agricultural and working-class electoral bases principally in Ireland’s west, as well as win over new voters with the nationalist and anti-English nature of his message.

    The legality of the annuities dispute was ambiguous. But de Valera withheld the money, and to recoup the missing millions the British imposed tariffs and punitive quotas. This was swiftly followed by retaliatory measures from Dublin – just as Trump’s moves have seen reaction from abroad.

    The stakes were high. A massive 92% of Irish exports went to the UK, and civil servants in Dublin fretted about the knock-on effects. In the short term, they were right to. Exports of cattle, bacon and other goods collapsed, and emergency domestic subsidy was needed to plug the gap.

    Irish attempts to land a major trade deal with the US by way of compensation went nowhere, and Britain remained its key customer for decades.

    Yet, unlike Trump, de Valera had a clear end goal into which the tariff war fitted rather well. He wanted to retool Irish farming away from livestock towards crops, and invest in Ireland’s nascent industry elsewhere. This included expanding the country’s energy independence and kick-starting its manufacturing sector.

    The retained annuities and the increased political capital his government gained from the trade war both helped with these objectives.

    It took until about 1937, after two more election wins and a referendum victory for de Valera, for British leaders to accept that the Irish public broadly backed their leader. They realised that a bilateral agreement was necessary.

    The dispute was finally ended in April 1938. As the ink dried on a deal that saw tariffs dropped in exchange for a one-off payment from Dublin and the return of three ports to Ireland, the British media hailed the achievement of Chamberlain – now prime minister.

    But this reaction also tells us something. Initially, Chamberlain was portrayed as a genius who had clearly won. But then critics pointed to it being a rather better deal for de Valera (the £10 million one-off sum was nowhere near the £100 million the British had a nominal claim for).

    In this new stance, it had been a great deal precisely because Chamberlain had been so magnanimous. A terrible deal was actually a great deal. Some of that mentality could be seen in reactions to the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler a few months later.

    All told, the consequences had been significant. Perhaps 3% of the Irish economy was lost.

    In the meantime, Irish immigration to Britain consequently ticked up as people looked for work. Smuggling at the Northern Irish border ballooned, leading to additional costs to police a frontier where cattle were hurried across unmanned fields and rivers to avoid the tariff.

    Guinness even moved production to London in order to avoid future tariffs.
    gabriel12/Shutterstock

    Major Irish-based industry, including Guinness and Ford, moved operations to the London periphery (Park Royal and Dagenham respectively) to avoid any future duties. Although Ford kept some tractor production in Cork in the south of Ireland, for large parts of its European and imperial business the only way was now Essex.

    All this meant economic dislocation and diplomatic animosity at a point where the geopolitical outlook was troubled – not an unfamiliar story. Although Ireland remained neutral during the second world war – the ultimate show for de Valera of its independence – intelligence cooperation and the service of Irish men and women in the Allied war effort illustrated that the two countries just about muddled through.

    But today, tariffs provoking wider turmoil remains a big worry. As former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau noted, Trump’s actions are “a very dumb thing to do” and could lead to “exactly what our opponents around the world want to see … a dispute between two friends and neighbours”.

    Trump may also be wise to note that de Valera’s position was bolstered when he could claim that he was being bullied by a more powerful neighbour. In the past few weeks, the Canadian Liberal Party has surged back in the polls, partly on the back of the same dynamics. The little guy sometimes swings back.

    Richard Carr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What Trump could learn from the British and Irish trade war of the 1930s – https://theconversation.com/what-trump-could-learn-from-the-british-and-irish-trade-war-of-the-1930s-252128

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Canada must treat its food system as a matter of national defence

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Karen Foster, Associate Professor, Sociology and Social Anthropology and Canada Research Chair in Sustainable Rural Futures for Atlantic Canada, Dalhousie University

    Rising tensions between Canada and the United States have made increased military investment and a renewed focus on national defence all but inevitable.

    A recent Angus Reid poll found three in four Canadians want to see the country’s military strengthened in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada as the 51st state. In early March, former prime minister Justin Trudeau committed publicly to increasing military spending.

    While it makes sense for a country feeling vulnerable to invasion to look at recruiting new soldiers and increasing its arsenal, there is an additional facet of national defence that is too often overlooked: food preparedness.

    Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs are already “stoking a new nationalism” in Canadians and sparking interest in buying local, but food should be part of the national defence conversation, too.

    The double edge of globalization

    The globalization of food systems, in Canada and the rest of the world, has intensified since the Second World War. This has brought some benefits, such as year-round access to fresh produce, but it has also made Canada’s food systems vulnerable to the whims of its trading partners.

    Academics focused on food security and sovereignty have long raised concerns about import-dependence on key nutritious foods like fruits and vegetables.

    Even in 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic shone a harsh light on food supply chains in Canada, research showed that the production of fresh produce was declining while imports were increasing.

    Now, faced with both a trade war and annexation threats, Canada must confront whether its domestic food systems can feed its population in a crisis — economic, political, environmental or otherwise.

    Food systems and national defence

    Trade-dependent countries worldwide are recognizing food security as a matter of national defence. Some, like Sweden, are making plans to take stock of the capacity and resilience of their food systems, and actively working toward a system that can sustain the lives of their citizens in a crisis.

    Sweden’s total goods trade accounted for 67 per cent of its GDP in 2023, compared to Canada’s 53 per cent. Despite its high level of trade dependence, Sweden has put food at the heart of the country’s total defence approach to national security.

    Total defence is a defence policy that emphasizes both traditional military activities and civilian activities, including their food systems.

    The Swedish government, in its defence resolution, states: “A well-functioning and robust food supply and personal preparedness of the civil population are ultimately a matter of survival and maintaining the will to defend.”

    This approach is not focused only on individual or household levels of preparedness — that is, whether people have enough in their pantries — but also includes the overall preparedness of the systems that produce, process and distribute food.

    Canada, with its heavy reliance on global trade and the U.S. as a primary trading partner, would do well to take note.

    Food sovereignty in Canada

    There are hundreds of scholars and thousands of community entities working to make Canada’s food systems more sustainable and resilient in the face of financialization, farmland consolidation and the globalization of supply chains.

    In Québec, for example, there is a growing movement to mobilize and empower producers, community entities, the agrifood sector, policymakers and additional stakeholders to build more resilient, territorial food systems across the province.



    Read more:
    Making our food fairer: Don’t Call Me Resilient EP 12

    Canadian experts play a key role in global discussions on food systems resilience, with scholars contributing to the United Nations Committee on World Food Security’s Building Resilient Food Systems draft report. This report is designed to help countries make their food systems more resilient, equitable and sustainable.

    Yet Canada’s efforts are not co-ordinated, empowered or moving fast enough in the push for greater food sovereignty. The point is not to abandon trade, but to manage it more strategically.

    Both international and domestic markets are crucial for Canadian farmers, and many local companies are devoted to importing everyday goods like coffee, tea and bananas under fair trade and agroecological conditions.

    Trade relations, however, are about more than economics; they involve building political partnerships with Mexico, the European Union, Asian countries and beyond — something Canada needs now more than ever.

    Sweden has already recognized this. Its food preparedness strategy involves deepening co-operation with like-minded Nordic countries and collaborating around the supply, transport, stockpiling and testing of food.

    Crisis-proofing Canada’s food systems

    To ensure Canada can feed itself in a crisis, the government must invest in domestic production, processing and distribution infrastructure. This would create more efficient, connected local markets that removes some of the burden of buying local from individuals.



    Read more:
    Boycotting U.S. products allows Canadians to take a rare political stand in their daily lives

    The Canadian government must also promote diversification in production and export. Canada needs to move away from monoculture farming and toward more regional networks and agroecological approaches. These approaches are more resilient to both crops themselves and the diverse markets they open up, reducing Canada’s dependence on single trading partners like the U.S.

    Key agricultural policies such as the Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership need to go beyond the long-standing focus on prioritizing export markets. They must also invest in infrastructure and partnerships in Canada to strengthen their support of Canadian producers, ranchers, fisheries and food system players at home, to help them work together at a regional scale.

    Correcting power imbalances in our food systems is also critical. Greater local and regional autonomy over how food is produced, processed and distributed would help with this. These strategies would make Canada less vulnerable to supply chain disruption.

    Countries like Sweden recognize these efforts as part of national defence — an approach Canada should consider.

    But while we fight annexation from the kitchen table, we must recognize it doesn’t start there; it starts at a higher level. Only better policy, infrastructure and systemic change can prepare Canada to be more proactive and resilient in the face of world crises — economic or otherwise.

    Karen Foster receives research funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) as well as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). She is the director of the SSHRC/AAFC-funded Common Ground Canada Network.

    Alicia Martin is a Postdoctoral Fellow with the SSHRC/AAFC-funded Common Ground Canada Network.

    Gavin Fridell receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada. He is a member of the Trade and Investment Research Project at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

    Kathleen Kevany receives funding from The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, for the Food Impact Network research and knowledge mobilization for the handbook of sustainable diets; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) for food waste prevention work, and Mitacs for internships on food procurement and food environment analysis.

    I am advised to Farm to Cafeteria Canada (F2CC) an NGO.

    – ref. Why Canada must treat its food system as a matter of national defence – https://theconversation.com/why-canada-must-treat-its-food-system-as-a-matter-of-national-defence-251118

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can a virtual reality residential school, developed with Survivors, improve empathy toward Indigenous people?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Iloradanon H. Efimoff, Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, Toronto Metropolitan University

    Virtual reality is a rapidly developing technology. As the technology expands, becoming more portable and affordable, the potential uses have expanded as well.

    One virtual reality creator calls virtual reality the “ultimate empathy machine.” Promising research shows that virtual reality can improve empathy toward groups such as people experiencing schizophrenia,
    children who are refugees and people who are unhoused.

    Working with an interdisciplinary research team, we put this statement to the test within the context of residential schools in Canada.

    Effective teaching about residential schools

    Residential schools were state-funded, church-run institutions that amounted to genocide. Teachers and other adults at these schools abused the children physically, emotionally and sexually.

    Knowledge of residential schools in Canada is relatively high. Recent national polls show that in 2022, 65 per cent of non-Indigenous respondents had read or heard about residential schools. This number increased to 90 per cent in 2023. This type of awareness, however, does not necessarily reflect a deep knowledge of residential schools.

    Given the apparent rise in residential school denialism and decreasing support for reconciliation initiatives, it is vital to find effective ways to teach about residential schools.

    Work with Survivors on virtual project

    Members of our interdisciplinary research team created a virtual rendering of Fort Alexander Residential School,
    working closely with a group of Survivors from that school. The school operated from 1905-1970 in Manitoba, near Winnipeg, and was run by the Roman Catholic Missionary Oblates of Mary Immaculate.

    The virtual rendering took years to develop, with critical relationships forming along the way. Members of this same team, and some new members, then tested the effects of the school.

    Overall, researchers with a range of approaches participated, including those who work in the areas of psychology, sociology, and computer science, or who are concerned with representation of war and genocide.

    One concern of those involved in the project was how participants would engage in the virtual school. In particular, we didn’t want the virtual school to be “gamified” (used like a video game). To this end, the virtual reality school is “on-the-tracks,” meaning viewers move through the school on a set path.

    This set path included visiting a classroom, a dormitory and a cellar, among other spaces that the Survivors described. The school was designed such that the viewers would feel physically small in the space — as if they were the size of a child. While moving through the various rooms in the school, viewers listened to recordings of Survivors’ stories of their experiences at the school.

    Would VR experience improve empathy?

    To test if a virtual reality residential school could improve empathy toward Indigenous people, we ran an experiment, as researchers do when they want to compare the impact of different experiences.

    All experiments include a group of people who receive some sort of intervention, such as our virtual reality school. In the simplest approach, researchers can compare the effects of the intervention group to an “empty control group,” which includes people who receive no intervention and often just respond to questions assessing key outcomes. Through comparisons like this, researchers can understand the effect of the intervention compared to doing nothing.

    We used a slightly more rigorous design by adding a third group who simply read the transcripts of the narration that accompanied the virtual school. This allowed us to test if the virtual reality school outperformed the transcripts, which were a different method of learning about residential schools.

    Powerful Survivor stories

    We tested how the virtual school, transcript and control groups affected four outcomes: empathy, warmth and political solidarity toward Indigenous people as well as perceptions that past events still cause suffering today — what we and often legal scholars call “privity.” We looked at the effects right after the experiment and then again weeks later.

    As we thought, compared to the control group, people who received either the transcript or virtual reality intervention responded more favourably toward Indigenous people; they reported more empathy, warmth, political solidarity and privity.

    But a surprising thing happened too: People in the transcript and virtual reality groups responded in the same way. Though we cannot be sure why, we suspect these two groups did not differ because the Survivors’ stories are powerful.

    Finally, over time, the differences among groups disappeared. The changes caused by reading a transcript or experiencing the virtual world went away.

    Need for ongoing education

    Our findings imply that a meaningful story does not require sophisticated technology like virtual reality to have impact. In cases where the story is captivating, the technology might not be necessary to engage people.

    Though trendy, virtual reality equipment is also more expensive and not as portable as written work. Of course, virtual reality might be just the right fit for audiences that would rather not or can’t read. It might also be a novel hook to get someone to engage with a topic they may otherwise avoid.

    Perhaps more clearly, our disappointing finding that the interventions did not last over time highlights the need for ongoing education about residential schools. A single learning opportunity is unlikely to cause long-lasting change in feelings and attitudes toward Indigenous people. There is more work to do.

    Katherine B. Starzyk holds funding from the Social Science and Humanities Council of Canada as well as Canadian Heritage / Patrimoine canadien. She is a Professor in the Department of Psychology at the University of Manitoba.

    Iloradanon H. Efimoff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can a virtual reality residential school, developed with Survivors, improve empathy toward Indigenous people? – https://theconversation.com/can-a-virtual-reality-residential-school-developed-with-survivors-improve-empathy-toward-indigenous-people-249996

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Combatting the measles threat means examining the reasons for declining vaccination rates

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Catherine Carstairs, Professor, Department of History, University of Guelph

    To address anti-vaccine sentiment, we need to listen to parents’ concerns and make it easy for them to get their children vaccinated. (Shutterstock)

    Measles was supposedly eradicated in Canada more than a quarter century ago. But today, measles is surging.

    Public Health Ontario recently announced that there have been 195 cases in the province in the past two weeks and 372 cases since autumn 2024. Many cases have required hospitalization. Last year, a child died.

    The cause of this resurgence is declining vaccination rates.

    Measles is extremely infectious. One person with the measles is likely to infect nine out of 10 of their unvaccinated close contacts. To prevent its spread, we need 95 per cent of the population to be vaccinated.

    Anti-vaccine sentiments

    Our research examines why parents have hesitated or refused to vaccinate their children. Anti-vaccine sentiment is often linked to a now thoroughly discredited 1998 study that suggested a link between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine and autism.

    But our research on the anti-vaccine movement in Canada from the 1970s to the early 2000s suggests that parents’ concerns about vaccines started much earlier than that study, and that parents worry about far more than autism.

    To address anti-vaccine sentiment, we need to listen to parents’ concerns and make it easy for them to get their children vaccinated. We also need to persuade them of the benefits of vaccination, not just for their own children, but for their family members, friends and fellow citizens.

    The anti-vaccine literature is not anti-science. It is filled with statistics and references to scientific studies, although the facts are often wrong. Parents who read this literature need more than the simple reassurance of experts that vaccines are safe and effective. They need to be shown evidence and have confidence that their concerns are being taken seriously.

    One argument that appeared frequently in the anti-vaccine literature is that rates of infectious disease had fallen before the introduction of vaccines.

    While mortality from infectious diseases declined well before vaccination, vaccines played a vital role in further diminishing the toll of infectious disease. Diphtheria is largely unknown today, but before the introduction of widespread vaccination in the years between the First and Second World Wars, it killed hundreds of Canadian children every year.

    Another common argument was that vaccines are ineffective. This argument was often used with respect to the measles vaccine. Because some people are inadequately vaccinated (receiving only one shot for example, instead of two), and because the vaccine is not perfect, there will be some cases of measles even in vaccinated people. Fortunately, these people tend to have milder cases.

    Anti-vaccine texts frequently contain long lists of scary-sounding ingredients in vaccines, similar to what we see for highly processed foods. Thimerosal (ethyl mercury used as a preservative) attracted the most attention. Thimerosal is no longer used in childhood vaccines in Canada.

    The anti-vaccine literature is deeply skeptical about the profit-making motivations of pharmaceutical companies and often mentions past disasters such as the thalidomide scandal that saw thousands of children born with shortened limbs.

    While this is not the only example of inadequate safety testing of new drugs, it is clear that the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine, used since the early 1970s, has a long safety record and has played a vital role in reducing deaths and illness from the measles in Canada and abroad.

    Anti-vaccine literature also stressed that there were natural ways of building immunity that could take the place of vaccination. We see this today with claims by United States Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Kennedy claims that poor eating habits are behind the spread of measles in the U.S. This is extremely dangerous. Even the healthiest, best-fed child can get extremely sick with the measles. Not all parents can afford nutritious food. And some children can’t be vaccinated because of medical conditions, leaving them extremely vulnerable.

    Tragedies of the past

    Anti-vaccine parents see vaccines as one of the dangers of our modern, polluted world, and worry that vaccines might have risks that have not yet been recognized. While there are risks with any medical technology, the benefits of vaccines far outweigh the possible dangers.

    A century ago, parents mourned the gruesome deaths of children with diphtheria, which caused a membrane to form across the child’s throat, slowly strangling them to death.

    Mortality from the measles declined in the first half of the 20th century, but in 1945, there was still one measles death for every 100,000 people in Ontario.

    Parents today have little memory of these tragedies, but sadly, they could return. Indeed, a powerful article recently published in the Atlantic Monthly profiled a father who had just lost his six-year-old child to the measles.

    Along with scholars like sociologist Jennifer Reich, who has studied contemporary anti-vaccine parents, we see anti-vaccination sentiment as part of a larger societal trend towards individualism. Parents think about what’s best for their own child, rather than thinking about what’s best for their community.

    At a time when Canadians are bonding together to fight the tariff threat from the U.S., it would be wonderful if we could also come together to fight the scourge of infectious diseases, including measles. The best way to do this is vaccination.

    Catherine Carstairs received funding from AMS Healthcare for this project.

    Kathryn Hughes receives funding from AMS Healthcare for this project.

    – ref. Combatting the measles threat means examining the reasons for declining vaccination rates – https://theconversation.com/combatting-the-measles-threat-means-examining-the-reasons-for-declining-vaccination-rates-252168

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canadians are more patriotic than ever amid Trump’s trade war — but it’s important not to take national pride too far

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Susan Dieleman, Jarislowsky Chair in Trust and Political Leadership and Associate Professor of Philosophy, University of Lethbridge

    Amid a trade war between Canada and the United States, there’s been a surge in Canadian patriotism over the past few weeks.

    A recent poll shows that, across the country, the number of Canadians who consider themselves “proud” or “very proud” has increased — including in Québec, where these numbers have increased from 45 to 58 per cent.



    Read more:
    Is Trump’s assault on Canada bringing Québec and the rest of the country closer together?

    Canadians have been showing their national pride in a variety of ways. Sports fans have been singing “O Canada” at the top of their lungs and booing the U.S. national anthem. Consumers have adjusted their purchasing priorities, buying more Canadian products and avoiding American ones where possible. Vacationers have even changed their travel plans, opting to stay in Canada rather than travel south of the border.

    Political leaders, too, have practically draped themselves in the Canadian flag to show their national pride. For example, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has been dubbed “Captain Canada” by the media for his response to the tariffs. Federal and provincial leaders have also adopted a so-called “Team Canada” approach — committing to presenting a united front in their response to tariff threats from the U.S.

    Former political leaders have penned opinion pieces proclaiming Canada to be the best country in the world — or, at least, a once-serious and proud country.

    But what does it mean to be patriotic — and are there good and bad ways of being patriotic? As an expert in the political thought of American philosopher Richard Rorty, I have found his reflections provide useful guidance for understanding the line between being a good patriot — and either taking things too far or not far enough.

    The virtuous response

    Rorty’s prophetic claims in his 1998 book Achieving Our Country: Leftist Thought in Twentieth-Century America about the likelihood that a “strongman” would be elected went viral after Donald Trump’s 2016 election. His insights can help us understand patriotism and why it might be important in the present moment.

    Rorty opens that book by providing an analogy:

    “National pride is to countries what self-respect is to individuals: a necessary condition for self-improvement. Too much national pride can produce bellicosity and imperialism, just as excessive self-respect can produce arrogance. But just as too little self-respect makes it difficult for a person to display moral courage, so insufficient national pride makes energetic and effective debate about national policy unlikely. Emotional involvement with one’s country […] is necessary if political deliberation is to be imaginative and productive. Such deliberation will probably not occur unless pride outweighs shame.”

    In this passage, Rorty invokes Aristotle’s notion of a “golden mean” — moderation between the excessive and deficient expression of a particular disposition. Very roughly put, to be virtuous is to feel and respond appropriately to any given situation. To exceed or fall short of the appropriate feeling and response is to be vicious.

    For example, to be courageous is to fear appropriately and to respond to that fear appropriately. The courageous person is not a person without fear. Rather, they fear what’s worthy of fear and don’t fear that which isn’t.

    The courageous person also responds appropriately to fear. What this response looks like will vary according to situation. Sometimes, courage calls one to stand and fight — while at other times, it calls one to turn and run. An inappropriate response is when one is reckless because they’re overly unafraid — or when one is cowardly because they’re overly afraid. As the wise fool character of Falstaff notes in Shakespeare’s Henry IV, the better part of valour is discretion.

    Virtuous patriotism

    Applying the same approach, we can understand patriotism as feeling and responding appropriately in a situation that calls for national shame. The person who takes pride in their country is not a person who never feels shame. Rather, they’re ashamed when something their country has done is worthy of shame — and not ashamed when there’s no reason to be.

    As a result, patriotism sometimes calls one to criticize their country. At other times, patriotism calls us to celebrate our country. The person who exhibits patriotism virtuously will know when criticism and celebration are appropriate. To respond inappropriately, according to Rorty, is to be either quarrelsome and imperialistic when one is overly unashamed, or to be apathetic and uninvolved when one is overly ashamed.

    Pride in one’s country is only a virtue when it’s well-deserved. But when it is well-deserved, pride is the virtuous response.

    In Achieving Our Country, Rorty was primarily concerned with the fracturing and consequent direction of the political left, worrying that it was veering off the virtuous track in the direction of vicious apathy. The political left, he said, emphasized the ways their country fell short — and of which they were rightly ashamed. But they didn’t look at the way the country had lived up to its promise, which should have made them proud.

    However, as I’ve written about previously, the political left wasn’t wrong to identify those aspects of a country’s history that are indeed shameful. And for Rorty, the left has played a vital role throughout history in helping countries become kinder, less shameful places than they otherwise might have been.

    In the current political climate, Rorty’s lesson for us is to make sure we don’t veer too far in the opposite direction, becoming quarrelsome or imperialistic. What true patriot love calls for is a more moderate stance — where we’re shameful of that which is worthy of shame, but also proud of that which is worthy of pride. Without a balance of shame and pride, efforts to continue improving what we stand on guard for is likely to falter and fall.

    As we Canadians wave our flags and support our Canadian producers, we would be well-served to remember the value of imaginative and productive deliberation — and to steer well clear of both bellicosity and apathy.

    Susan Dieleman receives funding as the Jarislowsky Chair in Trust and Political Leadership at the University of Lethbridge.

    – ref. Canadians are more patriotic than ever amid Trump’s trade war — but it’s important not to take national pride too far – https://theconversation.com/canadians-are-more-patriotic-than-ever-amid-trumps-trade-war-but-its-important-not-to-take-national-pride-too-far-250210

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why has the Gaza ceasefire collapsed? Why has the US launched aistrikes in Yemen? Middle East expert Q&A

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    For the past few weeks, the world’s attention has been focused on the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine and the diplomatic manoeuvrings that has entailed. But while Donald Trump has been focusing on negotiations with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, the ceasefire deal in Gaza he had a hand in getting over the line appears to have fallen apart.

    After negotiations with Hamas broke down, Israel cut off all humanitarian aid to Gaza at the beginning of March, then cut off power, and overnight on March 17 launched massive airstrikes across the Strip, killing more than 400 people.

    Meanwhile, the US has responded to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea with massive airstrikes against the Iran-back Houthi rebels. This has been widely interpreted as a message to Iran’s leaders from Trump, who is putting pressure on the Iranian government to negotiate a new nuclear deal to replace the one struck in 2013 which was rejected by the US president in 2018.

    Scott Lucas, a Middle East expert at University College Dublin, addresses some of the key issues involved.

    Do the Israeli airstrikes on Gaza mean the ceasefire deal is officially dead?

    Yes. This is the end of the two-month ceasefire that paused Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza. The six-week phase one of the ceasefire officially ended on March 1, after some hostages held by Hamas were exchanged for some Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons.

    There never was a possibility of a phase two. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing pressure from hard-right groups inside and close to his government and still vowing to destroy Hamas, was never going to accept a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and Hamas remaining in the Strip. Hamas was never going to accept eviction – and there was no prospect of agreement on a successor Palestinian government for Gaza.

    So Netanyahu, also being pressed by families of the remaining 59 hostages, sought an extension of phase one with the return of all those dead or alive. Hamas, whose last leverage is retaining those hostages, demanded a phase two.

    Israel cut off humanitarian assistance earlier this month. Returning to the aerial assault was the next step. The renewal of ground attacks will be next.



    Read more:
    Gaza ceasefire deal looks doomed as Israel blockades Strip and bars entry of humanitarian aid

    What is Israel’s long-term plan for Gaza?

    There is no long-term plan at the moment. Netanyahu needs a short-term return of the hostages to escape his political bind, not to mention his ongoing bribery trial.

    Israel’s hard right – and Donald Trump – may envisage a depopulated Gaza under Israeli military rule. But all such ambitions will be suspended as the death and destruction continues.

    What has been overshadowed is the possibility of a long-term plan in the West Bank, where Israel has been stepping up military operations and violence is escalating. As the world watches Gaza, the Israelis may seek to expand and consolidate their de facto rule through settlements in a programme which will be tantamount to annexation.

    Donald Trump saw the Gaza ceasefire as his deal. How will he react to Netanyahu breaking it?

    Trump was happy to grab the immediate, self-proclaimed glory of “peacemaker” for phase one.

    Since there was no possibility of being a peacemaker for a phase two, Trump set this aside for the fantasy of Trump Gaza and his golden statue on the “Riviera of the Middle East”.

    Now he will be content to blame and bash Hamas.

    Meanwhile the US has been attacking the Houthis in Yemen. What is Trump’s strategy here?

    The airstrikes are, in part at least, Trump speaking to the American public. He poses as a “peacemaker” at times, but he enjoys playing the tough guy. And, at a time when economic issues and Musk-inflicted chaos may dent his approval rating, he could rally support with the bombing.

    At the same time, Trump has carried out his standard ploy with Iran’s leaders: give me a photo opportunity for the “art of the deal” or I’ll “rain hell on you”.

    A direct strike on Tehran would unleash repercussions throughout the Middle East. Even though Iran has been weakened in the past year, it still has the capability to strike Americans in the region.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    So the low-cost option is to fire on Iran’s ally in Yemen. Some officials in the Trump administration will favour this as a way of putting pressure on the Iranians ahead of any potential talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme. Others will see this as part of backing for Israel amid the open-ended war in Gaza, and still others could endorse the step as a bolstering of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. And there is always the argument that the strikes could deter Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

    The Iranian response has been fairly muted. Why is that?

    Iran’s leadership is embroiled in a combination of economic, social and regional problems, perhaps the most serious situation since the mass protests after the disputed 2009 presidential election.

    Tehran’s projection of power has been shaken by the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the decimation of Hezbollah in Lebanon last year, and an eroding position in Iraq, where Iran’s influence over the government of prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is looking increasingly tenuous.

    The economy is in a parlous state. In early 2018, the exchange rate was 45,000 Iranian rial to the dollar. Now it is approaching 1 million to the dollar.

    Inflation is officially at 36%, but is far higher in reality, particularly for food and other essentials. Unemployment is rising and infrastructure is crumbling. There are shortages of electricity in a country that is the world’s seventh-largest oil producer.

    Having faced the “Woman, life, freedom” protests since September 2022, the regime is caught between making accommodations to public discontent and cracking down on rights. Some political prisoners have been released, but authorities are pursuing a draconian campaign against women who dare not to wear the hijab.

    Hardliners are trying to curb the centrist government, forcing out the economy minister, Abdolnaser Hemmati, and the foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who was central in the 2015 agreement that restricted Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Pursuing both that domestic campaign and confrontation abroad is a tall order.

    What does this mean for a new nuclear deal with Iran?

    Some Trump advisers may believe they can use the sledgehammer in Yemen to bludgeon Iran to the negotiating table and Trump’s photo opportunity with the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, or Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

    Good luck with that. Iran may be weakened, but Khamenei is not going to negotiate at the point of an American weapon. Responding to news of a Trump letter to Tehran that threatened, “There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal,” last week Khamenei dismissed the idea of talking with the Trump administration.

    He said: “When we know they won’t honour it, what’s the point of negotiating? Therefore, the invitation to negotiate … is a deception of public opinion.”

    Recent history is instructive. In 2013, Khamenei finally relented to nuclear deal talks when told by the then president, Hassan Rouhani, of an imminent economic collapse if Iran held out. More than five years later, however, the Iranian leadership was prepared to withstand Trump’s “maximum pressure” and withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.

    Iran’s idea for talks was based on a cautious process beginning with confidence-building measures on both sides. But a US approach predicated on bombing and bluster has effectively sidelined that.

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why has the Gaza ceasefire collapsed? Why has the US launched aistrikes in Yemen? Middle East expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/why-has-the-gaza-ceasefire-collapsed-why-has-the-us-launched-aistrikes-in-yemen-middle-east-expert-qanda-252532

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: British Rail wasn’t all bad. Sixty years after the brand launched we should remember its marketing successes

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lewis Smith, Lecturer in Marketing, Brunel Business School, Brunel University of London

    Jon_Ritchie/Shutterstock

    In 2025 Britain is marking the 200th anniversary of the modern railway. Many will be quick to celebrate the legacy of steam engines and the old red lion railway logo, but there’s one bit of Britain’s railway that perhaps doesn’t get enough praise – British Rail. Abbreviated to BR, the brand is 60 this year.

    BR officially began trading in 1965 and ended with the privatisation of the railways in 1997. But despite the brand coming to the end of the line, many of its iconic elements remain on the railways today. These include the “double arrow” logo, the font known as Rail Alphabet and a whole palette of colours and styles.

    State-owned Great British Railways, which is replacing Network Rail as the operator of most of Britain’s rail infrastructure as well as taking over the privatised franchise system, will unveil a logo in May. This may well incorporate the double arrow. The messaging is about the hope of “restoring pride” in Britain’s rail network.

    BR as an organisation, on the other hand, has an often controversial legacy. Those who remember it are quick to complain of late-running trains, high fares and a poor standard of service – including the soggy British Rail sandwich. This legacy is often politicised. One could equally argue that it was a cutting-edge business that served the people in times of dire economic crises, with recessions in the 1970s and 80s as well as the decline in manufacturing that led to widespread unemployment.

    The railways were nationalised under the 1947 Transport Act and managed by “British Railways”. Back in the 1950s, the railway had a poor reputation. As one survey respondent described, the railway was a “big, monolithic institution, not at all concerned with the welfare of the individual”.

    Trains were often late and dirty, the result of a lack of investment combined with the dying days of the steam era. Coupled to this, British Railways was hesitant about outside intervention, whether from managers, government officials or even passengers. Efforts to improve the railway began with the 1955 modernisation plan, which made a number of strategic recommendations. But by 1960 it had failed to deliver any financial benefits.

    For all nationalised industries in Britain, the 1960s were different. With the release of a government white paper in 1961, all the state-owned industries including gas, electricity and airways were set financial targets.

    One of the outcomes of this for the railways was Dr Richard Beeching’s Reshaping of British Railways plan published in 1963. It included a number of changes, including slashing the number of unprofitable routes.

    My recent research has examined BR marketing in the 1960s and 1970s, and found that this period represented one of great change in the history of marketing the railways.

    This included the introduction of the “British Rail” brand, with the publication of a corporate identity manual in July 1965. This represented management slowly opening up to recruit marketing and PR experts from the private sector, including from consumer giants like L’Oréal.

    Compared to other operators in Europe, BR received one of the lowest government subsidies. Over its operational life, BR fought hard to innovate in the market with the support and resources it had.

    It used new methods to locate and identify consumers, targeted advertising and services, and teamed up with private-sector giants like Kellogg’s and Persil with offers for discounted tickets. It also created new pricing structures, including Awaydays, Weekend Returns and Railcards.

    A fierce competitor

    As a nationalised railway, it might be easy to assume that BR had a monopoly and therefore did not have to compete. But this couldn’t be further from the reality. The car business was booming, with cheaper, more reliable models on offer. And, thanks to government infrastructure policy, more roads, car parks and fuel stations were being built.

    Other domestic transport like coaches (the National Bus Company was formed in 1968) applied constant pressure. And British Airways launched its domestic “shuttle” services between London and other UK cities in 1975, promising passengers they could just “turn up and go” without the need to book.

    This also marked a point at which marketing experts shifted their focus from places to people, identifying not only who wanted to travel but why. This included focusing on specific market segments by gender.

    In the 1970s, BR’s InterCity launched a TV campaign with the slogan “Travel Inter-City Like the Men Do”, which focused efforts on middle-aged women looking to travel to get away from their domestic duties.

    Rail travel could be a feminist issue too.

    Similarly, messaging for business travellers tightened. Before the 1960s, business travel was about luxury. Now it was about economic efficiency, where businessmen could work, eat and sleep on the train in advance of their meetings (none of which you could do if you were driving to a meeting).

    In the 1980s, before his horrifying crimes came to light, BR brought in TV star Jimmy Savile as the face of rail travel. Although hard to believe today, given what the public now knows about Savile, it was a coup at the time because of his media and business profile.

    But today, the railways are at a turning point. The government’s plans to nationalise railway franchises has prompted excitement from organisations like passenger group Bring Back British Rail.

    Let’s be clear: nationalisation on its own is not a silver bullet, though the BR case shows that it should be possible to have a nationalised industry that can serve the public interest and compete within the wider economy. Crucially, BR was an innovative marketer. What follows next should endeavour to be the same.

    Lewis Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. British Rail wasn’t all bad. Sixty years after the brand launched we should remember its marketing successes – https://theconversation.com/british-rail-wasnt-all-bad-sixty-years-after-the-brand-launched-we-should-remember-its-marketing-successes-251759

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK has closed its flagship sustainable farming scheme, choosing short-term cuts over long-term security

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emma Burnett, Honorary Research Associate, TABLE, University of Oxford

    EMJAY SMITH / shutterstock

    The UK government’s decision to abruptly close all applications for its flagship nature-friendly farming scheme has shocked many of the country’s farmers and environmentalists.

    The sustainable farming incentive (SFI) is one of a series of schemes which pays farmers in England to nurture the soil and wildlife and improve water quality. It is far from perfect.

    People have criticised its complexity and lack of clarity, its financial viability or its impact on how farms operate and how this would change the balance between producing food and reaching environmental goals.

    It’s too early to tell if these critics were correct, but the SFI certainly provided some stability for British farmers after EU farm subsidies ended post-Brexit. It seemed poised to make some positive impact.

    The government says a revised version will be announced in the coming months, but it will be hard to regain the trust of farmers. The decision to close the scheme for now throws a stark light on a broader issue: the tendency to prioritise immediate financial needs over the long-term health of both the farming sector and the environment.

    This is a classic example of what economists call “future discounting”, and it’s a dangerous game to play when it comes to vital services.

    Essentially, future discounting means we value things more in the present than we do in the future. If you are promised £100 today, or £110 in two months, which would you take? Sometimes there’s no right or wrong answer – do what you think is right for you with that £100. But sometimes… well, sometimes there is a right answer.

    The value of now, the value of the future

    The SFI scheme offers vital support for sustainable practices that, while crucial, often require upfront investment. This includes cover cropping, for example, where a crop is grown simply to cover a field rather than to be harvested.

    Cover cropping can help rejuvenate soils and is good for insects, but there are costs attached to purchasing the seeds, sowing them, and missing out on income by not growing a commodity crop.

    Other investment examples might involve creating grassland or ponds and ditches to hold back rainwater and prevent floods. These things have an immediate impact on farm output and activities, but with an eye to longer-term benefit.

    Investment in soil health might lower yields in the short run, but should pay off in the long run.
    William Edge / shutterstock

    The sudden closure of the scheme creates an immediate financial vacuum for those who missed the (unannounced) window. Thankfully, farmers with existing agreements will continue within the scheme, and applications that had been submitted prior to the sudden closure will still be assessed.

    However, even for those who are currently enrolled, this about-face instils fear that support will be withdrawn in the years to come – long before something like an expanded woodland has come to fruition.

    The government says that it has run out of money for the current budget cycle. Rather than celebrating the fact that so many farmers want to be involved, want to do adopt better farming practices and act as custodians of nature, it instead panicked and shut people out.

    Too much demand for a nature-friendly future, not enough cold hard cash. And now we can see how the discounting works – the perceived urgency of cashflow today overshadows the long-term benefits of healthy soil, thriving biodiversity, and a resilient ecosystem.

    There are specific actions that SFIs are meant to support, including soil health, water quality, biodiversity and pest management. Each of these requires investment to manage, and to rectify when things go wrong (see the huge fines for water companies).

    For example, it is easier to address issues of water quality by supporting better land use – reduced agri-chemicals, more grassland, tree cover, and so on – than to treat poor water quality downstream.

    But farmers operate both within tight financial margins and on long time-scales. They need security of income to plan land use, including whether they can afford to implement alternative strategies. But they do want to. That’s why there’s been so much demand for SFIs.

    A false economy

    Sympathy could be rustled up for the government, trying to manage complex budgets in a complicated time. But it has made one misstep after another in relation to both food and farming (farmer protests over inheritance tax, for instance) and the environment (such as the planned Heathrow airport expansion)).

    So while immediate fiscal prudence is important, ignoring the long-term consequences of environmental degradation is a false economy. We have a responsibility to value the future as much as the present. Failing to do so will have serious consequences for our environment, our food security, and the well-being of future generations.

    Rather than discounting futures, we should be doing the opposite – negative futures discounting. It sounds upside-down, but it boils down to this: we should value the future more, not less.

    In particular, we should be focused on nurturing good farming and environmental protection. These should take centre stage as mission critical things that we need, and not just for now, but always.

    The sustainable farming incentive shutdown is another chance to reflect on the fact that farming and environmental sustainability are not luxuries, but necessities. We cannot afford to continually discount the future, sacrificing the future of farming and the environment for the sake of short-term finance. It’s time to re-evaluate our priorities.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Emma Burnett has previously received funding from sankalpa. She also works as a sustainability researcher for a whisky company.

    – ref. The UK has closed its flagship sustainable farming scheme, choosing short-term cuts over long-term security – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-has-closed-its-flagship-sustainable-farming-scheme-choosing-short-term-cuts-over-long-term-security-252326

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Winter’s Tale at The Tobacco Factory, Bristol – a marvellous production with much to say about the modern world

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jo Lindsay Walton, Principal Research Fellow in Arts, Climate and Technology, University of Sussex

    The first half rips your heart out. The second attempts, tenderly, to put it back again. This is The Winter’s Tale, currently being performed at The Tobacco Factory, Bristol.

    In Shakespeare’s tragicomedy, King Leontes of Sicilia, in a fit of jealous paranoia, falsely accuses his wife Queen Hermione of adultery with their friend, King Polixenes of Bohemia. Quickfire catastrophe unfolds.

    Before you know it, the couple’s newborn daughter, Perdita, has been abandoned on a Bohemian hillside, left to the mercy of wolves and ravens. Sixteen years later, raised by the mercy of Bohemian shepherds instead, Perdita falls in love with Polixenes’ son. There are disguises. There are japes. And, astonishingly, there is reconciliation.

    It’s a marvellous production, directed by Heidi Vaughan, and it marks a welcome return of Shakespeare to The Tobacco Factory after a hiatus. With a cast drawn from Bristol’s deep talent pool, the connections on stage feel secure, energetic, and richly nuanced.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Hermione and Paulina are two of Shakespeare’s most intriguing roles for women, and Alice Barclay and Rose Wardlow do them justice. Barclay is stunning as the stunned Hermione, while Wardlow brings layers of vulnerability and sarkiness to Paulina’s righteous fury. Many of the smaller and medium roles shine. Amy Loughton (Perdita’s shepherdess mum) and Bill Ward (Polixenes) find organic situational comedy in moments that could easily have been merely functional.

    King Leontes’ tyranny, which dominates the first half, is played by Felix Hayes as a kind of psychotic episode. I’m torn. Hayes has a strong stage presence, with a whiplash switch from gentle loveliness to shuffling, brooding, whimpering monstrosity.

    It’s a spellbinding breakdown. But I was left wondering – might a less unhinged portrayal have better exposed the complicity of the court?

    The costume and set design also feel a little elusive. This ambiguity means the nature of Leontes’ authority is hard to pin down, as is the misogyny that shapes his tyranny. With androgynous-suited courtiers and soft furnishings, it’s hard to pin down the time or place, unless it’s the soft play area at Wacky Warehouse.

    The choice seems deliberate, leaning into that timeless fairytale quality. But The Winter’s Tale is specifically about time, including a particular time – now.

    What The Winter’s Tale can tell us in 2025

    The play celebrates the healing power of time, nature and the turn of the seasons. But the seasons themselves are not immune to tyranny. In other words, The Winter’s Tale is about responses to tyranny, as well as tyranny itself.

    Paulina (Wardlow) attempts to bloody well sort it out. She directly confronts both Leontes (“this most cruel usage of your queen, / not able to produce more accusation / than your own weak-hing’d fancy, something savours / of tyranny”) and the cowardly court (“such as you, /
    that creep like shadows by him, and do sigh / at each his needless heavings”).

    But how about the others? Camillo (Dorian Simpson) pragmatically scurries for the hills to bide his time. Cleomenes (Amy Loughton) musters some flustered bravery. Antigonus (Stu McLoughlin), let’s be frank, deserves to be eaten by a bear. It’s lucky there’s one handy.

    The Winter’s Tale can be tricky to stage in the round. It’s a story filled with centripetal forces – characters beg, vow, comfort, cling, smother – yet the space encourages just the opposite: centrifugal forces, outward motion, striding away, lobbing repartee over a shoulder, performers unfolding like a clockwork mechanism. The round staging comes into its own, however, in beautiful scenes of revelry, song, and dance, which are also scenes of healing.

    Someone once told me that boredom is an important part of healing. The lengthy pastoral scenes of the First Folio Winter’s Tale seem to bear that out. But for this production, Robin Belfield has given the script a tight edit, shortening many of these scenes.

    Ultimately, I’m grateful for the judicious cuts – people do, after all, need to leave the theatre eventually, and the two halves feel equally balanced.

    The Winter’s Tale proposes that real healing comes from remorse, time, and distance. It also comes from the company of those less wrapped up in the trauma. Your wounds will define you until you learn to relinquish the lead role in your own tragedy, and accept a supporting role in somebody else’s comedy.

    By the end of the play, Leontes feels remorse – but is it enough to provide healing for those he has hurt? Or is something more missing – some more explicit reckoning or reparative justice? I don’t know. The Winter’s Tale won’t resolve the question of whether healing is ever truly complete. It only asks whether we are willing to live with the weight of what cannot be undone.

    Jo Lindsay Walton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Winter’s Tale at The Tobacco Factory, Bristol – a marvellous production with much to say about the modern world – https://theconversation.com/the-winters-tale-at-the-tobacco-factory-bristol-a-marvellous-production-with-much-to-say-about-the-modern-world-251944

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Exploring the link between school exclusion and crime – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Iain Brennan, Professor of Criminology, University of Hull

    The rate of children permanently excluded from school in England rose against last year and is higher than before the pandemic.

    A recent BBC documentary by actor Idris Elba pointed out that being excluded from school can be a tipping point that pushes a child towards serious violence. This observation is backed up by convincing evidence.

    Data in a joint report by the Ministry of Justice and Department for Education shows that the risk of being cautioned or charged for a serious violence offence by age 18 is 15 times higher in children who had been excluded from school.

    Crucially, though, exclusion and violence have many risk factors in common. Children who have special educational needs, have grown up in deprivation or have been in care, for instance, are more at risk both of being excluded from school and of committing a violent offence.

    This makes the job of teasing out the impact of exclusion on violence challenging. Research needs to account for the contribution of these other factors.

    We carried out research to isolate the effect of school exclusion on serious violence, trying to do so in a way that just focused on the impact of exclusion.

    The best way to know whether or not something has caused a change is to split a group of people at random and give one group something and not the other, be that a medicine, a programme or anything else. This is known as a randomised controlled trial.

    Finding a cause

    By randomly splitting the group, any other risk factors – ones that we know about and ones that we don’t – are shared equally across the two groups, so if we see a difference between the groups, the only explanation is the difference introduced by the researchers.

    However, there are lots of situations where randomisation would be unethical. We could never randomise people to start smoking to test if it causes a disease, nor could we randomise skydivers to not wear parachutes. School exclusion is a situation like this. Excluding some children but not excluding others in the name of science would be a dangerous experiment.

    Instead of this unethical coin toss, we used a new technique from medical research, known as a target trial emulation. This approach seeks to mimic the circumstances of a randomised controlled trial.

    It does so by ensuring that the study only includes people who meet the “eligibility” criteria for the study, that the two groups are as similar as possible and that they are followed up for identical periods.

    It is important to define who is “eligible” for exclusion. While in theory, any children can be excluded, they are only truly eligible if they have done something “exclusion-worthy”.

    There are many common risk factors for exclusion and violence.
    polya_olya/Shutterstock

    Finding groups of people who meet these criteria and where some have been excluded and others have not is challenging. Fortunately, in 2020, the Department for Education linked the records of over 15 million people to criminal records held by the Ministry of Justice and anonymised them. This data set is just the type of “big data” we need for this question.

    We identified every record of a child who had been excluded between 2006 and 2016 – over 20,000 children. We then matched these records against those of other children from the same data set who had the same background, educational experience and history of suspensions and (non-violent) offending, but who, crucially, were never excluded.

    Following those cases from the time of the exclusion and comparing them, we found that, within a year, the excluded children were more than twice as likely to commit serious violent crime than their not excluded peers.

    A doubling of risk of the most serious violence in an already high-risk group points to exclusion being an important factor in youth violence.

    But because we cannot rule out other factors and because we can’t know if the comparison group were truly “eligible” for exclusion, this may be as close as we can get to understanding the causal influence of exclusion.

    Cut back on exclusions?

    The evidence on a link between exclusion and future violence might suggest that it would be a good idea to limit exclusions from schools. But this is an extremely contentious issue.

    Limiting or preventing exclusions risks schools having to spend a great deal of precious resources keeping a small number of children in school. The Department for Education and many teachers state that exclusions are necessary when a child’s behaviour becomes a risk to their classmates and teachers or harms the potential to learn.

    On the other hand, continuing with increasing rates of exclusions risks letting down the most vulnerable and traumatised children – as well as potentially creating victims of crime and heaping pressure on prisons later on.

    Critics of exclusions argue that, as well as increasing risk of offending, exclusions unfairly target children from ethnic minorities and children with special educational needs, and should be avoided as much as possible.

    We may never truly know the causal effect of exclusion on violent offending. But perhaps we do not need to. Addressing the common causes of exclusion and violence should be the greater priority.

    The warning signs for a child’s exclusion and violence will have been clear in many cases but too often schools and teachers lack the time and resources to help and include a child showing these signs, falling back on disciplinary policies that may be doing more harm than good.

    It would be better to introduce an inclusive system that views schools as being part of a system that does not just respond to violence but can prevent it. However, although exclusion from school may be a trigger and a predictor of serious violence, preventing such violence cannot be the responsibility of schools alone.

    Iain Brennan receives funding from Economic and Social Research Council, Home Office, College of Policing, Youth Endowment Fund and the Office of the Police and Crime Commissioner for Humberside.

    Rosie Cornish receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Youth Endowment Fund, the Home Office and the Avon and Somerset Violence Reduction Partnership.

    – ref. Exploring the link between school exclusion and crime – new research – https://theconversation.com/exploring-the-link-between-school-exclusion-and-crime-new-research-252122

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: An artist traces her choices under Putin’s Russia – from resistance to retreat to exile – one mural at a time

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Stephen Norris, Professor of History; Director of the Havighurst Center for Russian and Post-Soviet Studies, Miami University

    ‘Atlases,’ Victoria Lomasko’s mural at Miami University Used by permission of Victoria Lomasko

    Victoria Lomasko, a graphic artist and muralist, has spent her career documenting how authoritarianism took hold in Vladimir Putin’s Russia. What she has illustrated – as well as the personal journey she has taken – affords a chance to see how dictatorship can develop and strengthen across a decade.

    In 2019, I invited Lomasko – who goes by Vika for short – to Miami University, where I teach Imperial Russian and Soviet history. The Havighurst Center for East European, Russian and Eurasian Studies was holding a semester-long series on “Truth and Power” that also included two other Russian dissidents: Leonid Volkov, then chief of staff for opposition leader Alexei Navalny; and Mikhail Zygar, who helped found the independent news station TV Rain in 2010.

    I asked Lomasko to paint a mural illustrating the consequences of telling the truth in Putin’s Russia – a theme she has explored in all her works. Her completed mural, “Atlases,” depicted the struggle individuals face between desires to protest or to turn inward under authoritarianism.

    Taking action

    Lomasko first gained acclaim for “Other Russias,” which was published in English in 2017. The book is a collection of what she terms “graphic reportage”: comic-style art combined with current events.

    In it, she covered Russians who are largely invisible: activists, sex workers, truckers, older people, provincial residents, migrants and minorities. She wanted to represent them as “heroes” in their own lives, giving them agency and visibility.

    Her heroes came into the public spotlight in 2011 and 2012, when mass protests began in Russia after fraudulent elections and Putin’s return to the presidency. Lomasko attended the protests and sketched the participants. The rallies of 2012 seemed to signify that Russian citizens from a wide range of backgrounds could unite to resist creeping authoritarianism.

    A protester in Moscow asks a police officer, ‘Are the police with the people?’ in an illustration from ‘Other Russias.’
    Used by permission of Victoria Lomasko

    In addition to publishing her drawings, Lomasko also exhibited her work in Moscow and St. Petersburg – a seeming sign that censorship could not prevent an artist or ordinary citizen from voicing their frustration.

    This hope did not last long. Over the next few years, the Kremlin passed a series of laws that designated organizations, then media outlets and eventually individuals as “foreign agents” if they received any funding from abroad.

    Led by then Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky, who was appointed by Putin in 2012, the Russian state also began to demand “patriotic” culture supporting the government, and label anyone who resisted as “unpatriotic.”

    In these years, Lomasko documented how protests shrunk to local levels – truckers who decried a new tax, Muscovites who lamented the destruction of local parks, and urban activists who protested plans to tear down Soviet-era apartments. She still depicted participants as everyday heroes, yet she also noticed how protesters’ brief sense of power through collective action faded into disillusionment after the Kremlin went ahead with its plans.

    An illustration from ‘Other Russias’ of a truckers protest camp in 2016 in Khimki.
    Used by permission of Victoria Lomasko

    Changing tack

    “Other Russias” introduced Lomasko to a worldwide audience. By the time the book came out in 2017, however, she began to question the very basis of her graphic reportage.

    The protests that had inspired hope in 2011 and 2012 had not prevented a more aggressive, more oppressive form of Putinism from taking hold. After the protests, the Kremlin further concentrated power and employed propaganda to stifle dissent, becoming what the scholars Sergei Guriev and Daniel Triesman have called “spin dictators.”

    Was it enough for an artist to document social change? Lomasko concluded that the answer was no – art should offer solutions. She decided to paint murals that would move beyond graphic reportage.

    This new trajectory informed her Miami University project. By the time she arrived in March 2019, Lomasko had completed her first two murals: one for a gallery in England and a second in Germany.

    The first, “The Daughter of an Agitprop Artist,” featured her father, who had worked as a propaganda poster artist in her hometown of Serpukhov in the 1980s. In the mural, her father gazes at his work, the rituals of government-sponsored marches, and Lenin posters plastered everywhere. Young Vika stands with her back to her father, holding a red balloon. She stares at her future self, a woman covering the grassroots protests of 2012.

    Victoria Lomasko’s mural at the Arts Centre HOME in Manchester, England.
    Used by permission of Victoria Lomasko

    “Our Post-Soviet Land,” her second mural, depicted the ways some former Soviet states, particularly Ukraine, were distancing themselves from their communist past after independence – while others, particularly Russia itself, seemed to be increasingly nostalgic for the Soviet era.

    Two paths

    Lomasko spent two weeks on campus at Miami University here in Ohio, completing a mural that built on these themes.

    The central feature are two figures representing contemporary versions of Atlas, the titan who held up the world in Greek mythology. One faces left, toward a group of people praying in front of an Orthodox icon of Jesus. Here Lomasko depicts one path Russians took in response to the oppressive nature of Putinism: turning inward, retreating to a spiritual life.

    The second Atlas gazes upward, holding an artist’s brush. Below this figure a series of people take to the streets, protesting. They hold flags and banners representing a number of causes, including the 2011 “Occupy” movement in the United States. Lomasko’s message seems clear: This is a second path to take to resist authoritarianism – one that might succeed if participants see themselves connected across borders.

    Victoria Lomasko stands with her mural ‘Atlases’ at Miami University.
    Stephen Norris

    Art in exile

    After unveiling “Atlases,” Lomasko mentioned that she was still trying to retain hope for her country and for humanity. Once again, it did not last long.

    During the first two terms of Putin’s presidency, and that of Dmitry Medvedev, the government had largely left citizens’ speech alone, though it controlled information through state media. In 2018 and 2019, however, Russia passed laws that clamped down on internet access and mobile communication.

    Lomasko could no longer exhibit her work in Russia and was increasingly unable to find paid work as an artist. As she told me, the state considered her unvarnished depictions of ordinary Russians to be distasteful, while publishers and gallery owners considered her works politically dangerous.

    When the country began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, these changes allowed the government to criminalize opposition. Lomasko made the difficult decision to flee Moscow. She took her cat and as many artworks as she could carry, but she had to abandon most of her possessions. She documented this new journey the only way she knew: through a series of art panels titled “Five Steps.”

    “Isolation” encapsulates how Lomasko and dissidents like her grew ever more cut off from the rampant patriotism espoused by Putin. “Escape” shows her leap into the unknown, fleeing her country because she feared arrest, while others are caught up in war and political repression.

    “Exile” depicts Lomasko starting anew in a different country. “Shame,” the most powerful, seeks to capture her emotions at having to flee, as well as the shame she felt for what Russia was doing to Ukraine. “Humanity” retains the artist’s attempt to preserve her optimism – her sense that humans have more in common than they have differences, and that seeing oneself within a larger, global community might give power to the invisible.

    ‘Humanity,’ by Victoria Lomasko.
    Used by permission of Victoria Lomasko

    Tens of thousands of Russians have left the country since the start of the war, many of them artists and activists. Zygar and Volkov – the two other Russian citizens on campus for our university’s 2018-19 series – have also had to flee.

    Lomasko’s art helps trace how authoritarianism took hold in Russia across the past decade. I believe her responses to Putin’s dictatorship, including her decision to flee her homeland, offer us all something to ponder.

    Stephen Norris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. An artist traces her choices under Putin’s Russia – from resistance to retreat to exile – one mural at a time – https://theconversation.com/an-artist-traces-her-choices-under-putins-russia-from-resistance-to-retreat-to-exile-one-mural-at-a-time-250486

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Social movements constrained Trump in his first term – more than people realize

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kevin A. Young, Associate Professor of History, UMass Amherst

    Donald Trump’s first term as president saw some of the largest mass protests seen in the U.S. in over 50 years, from the 2017 Women’s March to the 2020 protests after George Floyd’s murder.

    Things feel different this time around. Critics seem quieter. Some point to fear of retribution. But there’s also a sense that the protests of Trump’s first term were ultimately futile. This has contributed to a widespread mood of despair.

    As The New York Times noted not long ago, Trump “had not appeared to be swayed by protests, petitions, hashtag campaigns or other tools of mass dissent.” That’s a common perspective these days.

    But what if it’s wrong?

    As a historian, I study how our narratives about the past shape our actions in the present. In this case, it’s particularly important to get the history right.

    In fact, popular resistance in Trump’s first term accomplished more than many observers realize; it’s just that most wins happened outside the spotlight. In my view, the most visible tactics – petitions, hashtags, occasional marches in Washington – had less impact than the quieter work of organizing in communities and workplaces.

    Understanding when movements succeeded during Trump’s first term is important for identifying how activists can effectively oppose Trump policy in his second administration.

    Quiet victories of the sanctuary movement

    Mass deportation has been a cornerstone of Trump’s agenda for more than a decade. Yet despite his early pledge to create a “deportation force” that would expel millions, Trump deported only half as many people in his first term as Barack Obama did in his first term.

    Progressive activists were a key reason. By combining decentralized organizing and nationwide resource-sharing, they successfully pushed scores of state and local governments to adopt sanctuary laws that limited cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE.

    When the sociologist Adam Safer examined thousands of cities and dozens of states, he found that a specific type of sanctuary law that activists supported – barring local jails and prisons from active cooperation with ICE – successfully reduced ICE arrests. A study by legal scholar David K. Hausman confirmed this finding. Notably, Hausman also found that sanctuary policies had “no detectable effect on crime rates,” contrary to what many politicians allege.

    Another important influence on state and local officials was employers’ resistance to mass deportation. The E-Verify system requiring employers to verify workers’ legal status went virtually unenforced, since businesses quietly objected to it. As this example suggests, popular resistance to Trump’s agenda was most effective when it exploited tensions between the administration and capitalists.

    The ‘rising tide’ against fossil fuels

    In his effort to prop up the fossil fuel industry, Trump in his first term withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, weakened or eliminated over 100 environmental protections and pushed other measures to obstruct the transition to green energy.

    Researchers projected that these policies would kill tens of thousands of people in just the United States by 2028, primarily from exposure to air pollutants. Other studies estimated that the increased carbon pollution would contribute to tens of millions of deaths, and untold other suffering, by century’s end.

    That’s not the whole story, though. Trump’s first-term energy agenda was partly thwarted by a combination of environmental activism and market forces.

    His failure to resuscitate the U.S. coal industry was especially stark. Coal-fired plant capacity declined faster during Trump’s first term than during any four-year period in any country, ever. Some of the same coal barons who celebrated Trump’s victory in 2016 soon went bankrupt.

    CBS News covered the bankruptcy of coal firm Murray Energy, founded by Trump supporter Robert E. Murray.

    The most obvious reasons for coal’s decline were the U.S. natural gas boom and the falling cost of renewable energy. But its decline was hastened by the hundreds of local organizations that protested coal projects, filed lawsuits against regulators and pushed financial institutions to disinvest from the sector. The presence of strong local movements may help explain the regional variation in coal’s fortunes.

    Environmentalists also won some important battles against oil and gas pipelines, power plants and drilling projects. In a surprising number of cases, organizers defeated polluters through a combination of litigation, civil disobedience and other protests, and by pressuring banks, insurers and big investors.

    In 2018, one pipeline CEO lamented the “rising tide of protests, litigation and vandalism” facing his industry, saying “the level of intensity has ramped up,” with “more opponents” who are “better organized.”

    Green energy also expanded much faster than Trump and his allies would have liked, albeit not fast enough to avert ecological collapse. The U.S. wind energy sector grew more in Trump’s first term than under any other president, while solar capacity more than doubled. Research shows that this progress was due in part to the environmental movement’s organizing, particularly at the state and local levels.

    As with immigration, Trump’s energy agenda divided both political and business elites. Some investors became reluctant to keep their money in the sector, and some even subsidized environmental activism. Judges and regulators didn’t always share Trump’s commitment to propping up fossil fuels. These tensions between the White House and business leaders created openings that climate activists could exploit.

    Worker victories in unlikely places

    Despite Trump self-promoting as a man of the people, his policies hurt workers in numerous ways – from his attack on workers’ rights to his regressive tax policies, which accelerated the upward redistribution of wealth.

    Nonetheless, workers’ direct action on the job won meaningful victories. For example, educators across the country organized dozens of major strikes for better pay, more school funding and even against ICE. Workers in hotels, supermarkets and other private-sector industries also walked out. Ultimately, more U.S. workers went on strike in 2018 than in any year since 1986.

    This happened not just in progressive strongholds but also in conservative states like West Virginia, Oklahoma and Kentucky. At least 35 of the educators’ strikes defied state laws denying workers the right to strike.

    In addition to winning gains for workers, the strike wave apparently also worked against Republicans at election time by increasing political awareness and voter mobilization. The indirect impact on elections is a common side effect of labor militancy and mass protest.

    Quiet acts of worker defiance also constrained Trump. The early months of the COVID-19 pandemic featured widespread resistance to policies that raised the risk of infection, particularly the lack of mask mandates.

    Safety-conscious workers frequently disobeyed their employers, in ways seldom reflected in official strike data. Many customers steered clear of businesses where people were unmasked. These disruptions, and fears they might escalate, led businesses to lobby government for mask mandates.

    This resistance surely saved many lives. With more coordination, it might have forced a decisive reorientation in how government and business responded to the virus.

    Labor momentum could continue into Trump’s second term. Low unemployment, strong union finances and widespread support for unions offer opportunities for the labor movement.

    Beyond marches

    Progressive movements have no direct influence over Republicans in Washington. However, they have more potential influence over businesses, lower courts, regulators and state and local politicians.

    Of these targets, business ultimately has the most power. Business will usually be able to constrain the administration if its profits are threatened. Trump and Elon Musk may be able to dismantle much of the federal government and ignore court orders, but it’s much harder for them to ignore major economic disruption.

    While big marches can raise public consciousness and help activists connect, by themselves they will not block Trump and Musk. For that, the movement will need more disruptive forms of pressure. Building the capacity for that disruption will require sustained organizing in workplaces and communities.

    Kevin A. Young does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Social movements constrained Trump in his first term – more than people realize – https://theconversation.com/social-movements-constrained-trump-in-his-first-term-more-than-people-realize-248843

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Water cooperation is essential when countries share lakes and rivers – yet it’s been deteriorating in many places, with serious consequences

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Susanne Schmeier, Associate Professor of Water Law and Diplomacy, IHE Delft

    Lake Chad once provided adequate livelihoods for 20 million people in Africa, but it lost 90% of its surface area in 30 years. AP Photo/Christophe Ena

    Just over half the world’s population shares a river or lake basin with at least one other country. To sustainably manage those water resources for the health of people, ecosystems and economies, neighboring countries must work together.

    However, many countries have been less willing to cooperate in recent years, even to protect a resource as vital as freshwater.

    This trend away from multilateralism isn’t unique to water. The world is seeing a decline in the general willingness of countries to jointly solve many interstate, regional and global challenges. It shows as countries, like the U.S., pull out of the global institutions, such as the World Health Organization, and drop their support for global climate goals.

    The breakdown in cooperation can have severe consequences. If one country takes more water than agreed upon, and builds dams or pollutes the water, its neighbors and their people, cities, agriculture, energy production and wildlife can suffer. That can ultimately destabilize local communities, deteriorate relations between countries and endanger regional peace and stability.

    Water flowing into Africa’s Nile River affects several countries. A large dam being built by Ethiopia has led to concerns and disputes in the region.
    AP Photo/Amr Nabil

    We conduct research and work with governments and international organizations on environment and water law, policy and governance. The shift we’re seeing away from multilateral cooperation and rules-based order to more nationalistic tendencies, in which a country prioritizes itself to the detriment of all others, is raising concerns about the future.

    Thousands of years of water cooperation paid off

    More than 4,000 years ago, two Sumerian city-states – Lagash and Umma – were engaged in a fierce war over a strip of fertile land and a canal fed by the Tigris River in what today would be southern Iraq.

    The conflict ended in 2550 B.C. with the first known precursor to an international water treaty. The Mesilim Treaty included payments and agreements on collaborative water use. It didn’t hold the peace permanently, but it created a model that lasted.

    Conflict still occurs over shared waters; however, since the late 1800s, and particularly since the end of World War II, cooperation has been the dominant interaction between countries in the world’s 313 surface water basins, 468 transboundary aquifers and more than 300 transboundary wetlands.

    In Europe, for example, countries have worked together through treaties, data sharing and joint projects to improve water quality, including in the Rhine and Danube rivers.

    Nine countries work closely to protect the health of the Rhine River, which each depends on. In 2018, that cooperation became essential as water levels dropped to levels that interrupted ship travel.
    AP Photo/Martin Meissner

    Having cooperative processes in place also helps when disagreements arise. In Southeast Asia, negotiations and technical exchanges between countries that share the Mekong River have helped to ease tensions over the construction of dams in Laos.

    Unilateralism is rising

    Despite the proven benefits from cooperating over water resources, we’re seeing a troubling trend: Countries are increasingly taking actions that undermine water cooperation.

    Even in the Columbia River Basin, often considered a model of cross-border cooperation, the status of an updated treaty between the U.S. and Canada is in question after the Trump administration paused talks in March 2025.

    Since 1964, the U.S. has paid Canada to control the river’s flow to prevent flooding and to serve U.S. hydropower plants. The updated deal has been agreed to in principle, but is not signed. That’s raising questions about what will happen if the interim agreements expire in 2027 before the new treaty comes into force.

    Another example is in the Zambezi River Basin in southern Africa, where countries increasingly disregard agreements to notify one another before building projects that will affect the water flow. Similar behavior happens in the Nile and Aral Sea regions, among others.

    Ethiopia’s construction of a large hydroelectric damage on the Blue Nile has upset its downstream neighbors.

    As unilateral actions over shared water resources become more frequent, the willingness of governments to enter into agreements and establish joint institutions to guide that cooperation is declining. The rate of establishing multilateral agreements has significantly slowed since the 2010s. Only around 10 agreements have been signed since 2020, and only two joint institutions have been established. A large proportion of basins have no agreements or institutions at all.

    The few recent attempts to establish cooperative mechanisms have stalled or failed. The formal establishment of an organization to manage Lake Kivu and the Ruzizi River basin, shared by Congo, Rwanda and Burundi, was never formally ratified by its member countries. That left the once-promising organization a zombie.

    Even when institutions already exist, some governments are withdrawing from them. But moves made for short-term gain can have long-term repercussions.

    An example involves the Aral Sea, which has shrunk dramatically since the 1960s due to a combination of water demand for cotton crops and climate change drying the region.

    The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, IFAS, was created in 1993 by five countries to support projects designed to ensure water use remains possible along its rivers. However, in 2016, Kyrgyzstan froze its membership, arguing that the organization wasn’t taking Kyrgyzstan’s national interests into account. Kyrgyzstan contributes about 25% of water flowing into the region. Its frozen participation limits IFAS’ effectiveness.

    The Aral Sea in Central Asia has been shrinking since the 1960s, but dramatically lost water each year over the past two decades. The top left image is from 2000.
    NASA

    Similarly, Egypt and Sudan froze their participation in the Nile Basin Initiative in 2010 over a cooperative agreement that they saw as violating their historical water rights – established in colonial 1929 and 1959 agreements – in favor of governance centered on “equitable water allocations.” While Sudan resumed participation in the Nile Basin Initiative in 2012, Egypt’s participation remains frozen.

    Erosion of multilateralism

    The changes we’re seeing with water agreements and institutions reflect a broader decline in countries’ willingness to address shared problems through multilateral cooperation — a trend that seems to be rapidly increasing.

    In the United States, the Trump administration is pursuing expansionist foreign policies and protectionist trade policies. The administration has also publicly wavered on the U.S. commitment to NATO and announced it was leaving the World Health Organization.

    Argentina also announced it would withdraw from the WHO. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States, which promotes economic and political cooperation in the region.

    The environment has been particularly affected by this trend. The U.S. move to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and the difficulty of reaching a global plastics treaty also reflect the growing difficulty in reaching cooperative solutions to benefit future generations.

    Harm to ecosystems, people and countries

    As climate change shrinks freshwater resources, and growing populations lead to overexploitation of water supplies, countries will increasingly need multilateral cooperation to avoid conflict.

    These agreements and institutions provide forums for communication and cooperation. Losing them can lead to less well-governed water resources, declining environmental, economic and health benefits, and increasing conflict.

    Lake Chad is a cautionary example. The Lake Chad Basin Commission was established in 1964 by Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria to oversee its water and other natural resources and coordinate projects related to the lake. But the countries never fully committed to cooperating.

    Since then, the lake has shrunk by around 90%, which has increased poverty by reducing people’s access to vital water resources to support their livelihoods. And that has created optimal conditions for terrorist group Boko Haram’s violent insurgency to succeed in recruiting young men who had limited livelihood options left.

    People collect water from a branch of Lake Chad in Ngouboua, Chad, which has been attacked by the terrorist group Boko Haram. People depend on the lake for water, but it has been shrinking.
    Philippe Desmazes/AFP via Getty Images

    We believe this decline in countries’ commitment to multilateral cooperation should be a wake-up call for everyone. If the world’s most precious resource is not managed cooperatively and sustainably across international boundaries, more than just water is at risk.

    Melissa McCracken has not received funding related to this article.

    Susanne Schmeier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Water cooperation is essential when countries share lakes and rivers – yet it’s been deteriorating in many places, with serious consequences – https://theconversation.com/water-cooperation-is-essential-when-countries-share-lakes-and-rivers-yet-its-been-deteriorating-in-many-places-with-serious-consequences-251864

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A brief history of Medicaid and America’s long struggle to establish a health care safety net

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ben Zdencanovic, Postdoctoral Associate in History and Policy, University of California, Los Angeles

    President Lyndon B. Johnson, left, next to former President Harry S. Truman, signs into law the measure creating Medicare and Medicaid in 1965. AP Photo

    The Medicaid system has emerged as an early target of the Trump administration’s campaign to slash federal spending. A joint federal and state program, Medicaid provides health insurance coverage for more than 72 million people, including low-income Americans and their children and people with disabilities. It also helps foot the bill for long-term care for older people.

    In late February 2025, House Republicans advanced a budget proposal that would potentially cut US$880 billion from Medicaid over 10 years. President Donald Trump has backed that House budget despite repeatedly vowing on the campaign trail and during his team’s transition that Medicaid cuts were off the table.

    Medicaid covers one-fifth of all Americans at an annual cost that coincidentally also totals about $880 billion, $600 billion of which is funded by the federal government. Economists and public health experts have argued that big Medicaid cuts would lead to fewer Americans getting the health care they need and further strain the low-income families’ finances.

    As a historian of social policy, I recently led a team that produced the first comprehensive historical overview of Medi-Cal, California’s statewide Medicaid system. Like the broader Medicaid program, Medi-Cal emerged as a compromise after Democrats failed to achieve their goal of establishing universal health care in the 1930s and 1940s.

    Instead, the United States developed its current fragmented health care system, with employer-provided health insurance covering most working-age adults, Medicare covering older Americans, and Medicaid as a safety net for at least some of those left out.

    Health care reformers vs. the AMA

    Medicaid’s history officially began in 1965, when President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the system into law, along with Medicare. But the seeds for this program were planted in the 1930s and 1940s. When President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration was implementing its New Deal agenda in the 1930s, many of his advisers hoped to include a national health insurance system as part of the planned Social Security program.

    Those efforts failed after a heated debate. The 1935 Social Security Act created the old-age and unemployment insurance systems we have today, with no provisions for health care coverage.

    Nevertheless, during and after World War II, liberals and labor unions backed a bill that would have added a health insurance program into Social Security.

    Harry Truman assumed the presidency after Roosevelt’s death in 1945. He enthusiastically embraced that legislation, which evolved into the “Truman Plan.” The American Medical Association, a trade group representing most of the nation’s doctors, feared heightened regulation and government control over the medical profession. It lobbied against any form of public health insurance.

    This PBS ‘Origin of Everything!’ video sums up how the U.S. wound up with its complex health care system.

    During the late 1940s, the AMA poured millions of dollars into a political advertising campaign to defeat Truman’s plan. Instead of mandatory government health insurance, the AMA supported voluntary, private health insurance plans. Private plans such as those offered by Kaiser Permanente had become increasingly popular in the 1940s in the absence of a universal system. Labor unions began to demand them in collective bargaining agreements.

    The AMA insisted that these private, employer-provided plans were the “American way,” as opposed to the “compulsion” of a health insurance system operated by the federal government. They referred to universal health care as “socialized medicine” in widely distributed radio commercials and print ads.

    In the anticommunist climate of the late 1940s, these tactics proved highly successful at eroding public support for government-provided health care. Efforts to create a system that would have provided everyone with health insurance were soundly defeated by 1950.

    JFK and LBJ

    Private health insurance plans grew more common throughout the 1950s.

    Federal tax incentives, as well as a desire to maintain the loyalty of their professional and blue-collar workers alike, spurred companies and other employers to offer private health insurance as a standard benefit. Healthy, working-age, employed adults – most of whom were white men – increasingly gained private coverage. So did their families, in many cases.

    Everyone else – people with low incomes, those who weren’t working and people over 65 – had few options for health care coverage. Then, as now, Americans without private health insurance tended to have more health problems than those who had it, meaning that they also needed more of the health care they struggled to afford.

    But this also made them risky and unprofitable for private insurance companies, which typically charged them high premiums or more often declined to cover them at all.

    Health care activists saw an opportunity. Veteran health care reformers such as Wilbur Cohen of the Social Security Administration, having lost the battle for universal coverage, envisioned a narrower program of government-funded health care for people over 65 and those with low incomes. Cohen and other reformers reasoned that if these populations could get coverage in a government-provided health insurance program, it might serve as a step toward an eventual universal health care system.

    While President John F. Kennedy endorsed these plans, they would not be enacted until Johnson was sworn in following JFK’s assassination. In 1965, Johnson signed a landmark health care bill into law under the umbrella of his “Great Society” agenda, which also included antipoverty programs and civil rights legislation.

    That law created Medicare and Medicaid.

    From Reagan to Trump

    As Medicaid enrollment grew throughout the 1970s and 1980s, conservatives increasingly conflated the program with the stigma of what they dismissed as unearned “welfare.” In the 1970s, California Gov. Ronald Reagan developed his national reputation as a leading figure in the conservative movement in part through his high-profile attempts to cut and privatize Medicaid services in his state.

    Upon assuming the presidency in the early 1980s, Reagan slashed federal funding for Medicaid by 18%. The cuts resulted in some 600,000 people who depended on Medicaid suddenly losing their coverage, often with dire consequences.

    Medicaid spending has since grown, but the program has been a source of partisan debate ever since.

    In the 1990s and 2000s, Republicans attempted to change how Medicaid was funded. Instead of having the federal government match what states were spending at different levels that were based on what the states needed, they proposed a block grant system. That is, the federal government would have contributed a fixed amount to a state’s Medicaid budget, making it easier to constrain the program’s costs and potentially limiting how much health care it could fund.

    These efforts failed, but Trump reintroduced that idea during his first term. And block grants are among the ideas House Republicans have floated since Trump’s second term began to achieve the spending cuts they seek.

    Protesters in New York City object to Medicaid cuts sought by the first Trump administration in 2017.
    Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images

    The ACA’s expansion

    The 2010 Affordable Care Act greatly expanded the Medicaid program by extending its coverage to adults with incomes at or below 138% of the federal poverty line. All but 10 states have joined the Medicaid expansion, which a U.S. Supreme Court ruling made optional.

    As of 2023, Medicaid was the country’s largest source of public health insurance, making up 18% of health care expenditures and over half of all spending on long-term care. Medicaid covers nearly 4 in 10 children and 80% of children who live in poverty. Medicaid is a particularly crucial source of coverage for people of color and pregnant women. It also helps pay for low-income people who need skilled nursing and round-the-clock care to live in nursing homes.

    In the absence of a universal health care system, Medicaid fills many of the gaps left by private insurance policies for millions of Americans. From Medi-Cal in California to Husky Health in Connecticut, Medicaid is a crucial pillar of the health care system. This makes the proposed House cuts easier said than done.

    Ben Zdencanovic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A brief history of Medicaid and America’s long struggle to establish a health care safety net – https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-medicaid-and-americas-long-struggle-to-establish-a-health-care-safety-net-251776

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Plastic pyrolysis − chemists explain a technique attempting to tackle plastic waste by bringing the heat

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kevin A. Schug, Professor of Analytical Chemistry, University of Texas at Arlington

    Large proportions of plastic waste don’t get recycled. Westend61 via Getty Images Plus

    In 1950, global plastic production was about 2 million tons. It’s now about 400 million tons – an increase of nearly 20,000%.

    As a material, it has seemingly limitless potential. Plastic is inexpensive to produce while being lightweight and sturdy. Its applications range from food and beverage packing to clothing and health care.

    When a plastic item ends its useful life, it can take a very long time to decompose, up to 500 years in some cases. Even then, the plastic pieces don’t disappear entirely – instead, they break down into smaller and smaller pieces, eventually becoming microplastics that end up in the soil where we grow food, the water we drink and the air we breathe.

    Research has linked these microplastics to health issues such as diabetes, heart disease and low male fertility.

    For years, local governments and manufacturers have relied on recycling as the answer to keep plastic waste from accumulating. However, despite their efforts to sort and separate recyclables, most plastics still end up in landfills – or worse, in green spaces and waterways.

    According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the overall recycling rate for plastics is 8.7%. About a third of milk jugs and plastic bottles are recycled – a higher rate than other types of plastic.

    Because plastic is so commonly used, finding new ways to manage and recycle plastic waste is becoming ever more important. Plastic waste pyrolysis is one technology that could help address this issue.

    This is a relatively new technique, so researchers still have only a limited knowledge of the pyrolysis process. As analytical chemists, we strive to understand the composition of complex mixtures, especially new creations from sources such as plastic waste pyrolysis.

    What is plastic pyrolysis?

    Plastic pyrolysis is a chemical process that involves chemically breaking down plastics into other molecules by heating the plastics to extremely high temperatures in the absence of oxygen.

    Plastics are fed into the pyrolysis reactor, where they get hot and turn to oil. The oil moves to another vat where it’s boiled and distilled.
    Alexander Kaplitz and Kevin A. Schug

    Unlike traditional plastic recycling, pyrolysis theoretically isn’t limited to specific types of plastic. It could be made to accommodate many of them, although current technology is limited to a few types – polyethylene and polypropylene, used in food containers and bottles – at an industrial scale.

    So, plastic pyrolysis could help handle the waste from consumer products such as plastic bags, bottles, milk jugs, packaging materials, wet wipes and even discarded children’s toys. Pyrolysis can also handle more complex plastic waste such as tires and discarded electronics, although solid waste handlers and recyclers avoid certain plastic types in pyrolysis, such as polyvinyl chloride – or PVC, which is found in pipes and roofing products – and polystyrene, used in packaging, as these can create harmful byproducts.

    During pyrolysis, the plastic polymers are broken down into smaller molecules, resulting in the production of liquid oil, fuel source gases such as methane, propane and butane, and char.

    Char is the solid residue left at the end of the pyrolysis process. It can be used as a carbon-rich material for various applications, including adding it to soil to make it healthier for farming, as it increases soil moisture and pH, benefiting nutrient absorption. Char also has the ability to absorb harmful carbon gases from the air, which can help prevent climate change.

    The main downside of char is if it’s used too much it can increase soil alkalinity, which may hinder plant growth.

    Plastic pyrolysis uses heat to break down plastic, with the intent to convert plastic waste into usable materials.

    How pyrolosis works

    The plastic pyrolysis process typically involves several key steps.

    In the first step of pyrolysis, community recyclers collect the plastic waste and clean it to remove any contaminants. The plastic then gets shredded into smaller pieces to facilitate the pyrolysis process. Unlike traditional recycling, it needs only minimal sorting.

    Chemical recyclers operating pyrolysis plants feed the shredded plastic into a pyrolysis reactor, where they heat it to temperatures ranging from 600 to 1,600 degrees Fahrenheit (315 to 871 degrees Celsius). Without oxygen, plastics in the reactor don’t catch fire and emit fumes into the air. Instead, this high-temperature environment causes the plastic polymers to break down into smaller hydrocarbon molecules. These smaller molecules can be further refined.

    The high temperature turns some molecules into vapors, which condense into liquid oil. Chemical companies can further refine this oil to be used as fuel or as a raw material to make other chemicals or plastics.

    In addition to liquid oil, the pyrolysis process generates natural gases, such as methane, ethane, butane and propane. Pyrolysis operators then capture these gases, and they can sometimes use them as a source of energy to power the pyrolysis reactor or other industrial processes.

    Plastic pyrolysis generates oil, which engineers can use to create new materials or fuels.
    BASF, CC BY-NC-ND

    Benefits of pyrolysis

    When done effectively, plastic pyrolysis offers several benefits.

    By expanding recycling beyond just plastic bottles and milk jugs, pyrolysis could reduce the amount of plastic waste pollution that ends up in landfills and oceans.

    Additionally, converting plastic waste into usable products could help lower the production demand for new plastics from petroleum hydrocarbons. The byproducts could get used in recycled plastics.

    Some researchers are also testing pyrolysis oils to see whether they can use them instead of gasoline to fuel vehicles. The gases produced during pyrolysis can even generate energy that fuels the pyrolysis reactor, making the process more self-sustaining and reducing the need for external energy sources.

    Currently, about 15% to 20% of the pyrolysis products are recycled into new propylene and ethylene, while most – about 80% to 85% – becomes diesel fuel, hydrogen, methane and other chemicals.

    While plastic pyrolysis holds some promise, it also faces challenges. The cost of setting up and operating pyrolysis plants is high. How profitable the process is depends on the availability of suitable plastic waste, the market demand for the oils and gases produced, and the costs of energy and staff necessary to operate the reactor.

    Another issue is quality control. Most plastic types can undergo pyrolysis, but different plastics create oils with different chemical makeups. Scientists will need to understand the composition of these oils before industry can determine which plastic types to focus on and how each oil could create new materials.

    Pyrolysis oils have unique chemical compositions depending on the type of plastics used to create them.
    Alexander Kaplitz and Kevin A. Schug

    Researchers like us at The University of Texas at Arlington and our international colleagues are studying new chromatography-based oil-separation techniques that can successfully identify some types of pyrolysis oils. Chromatography is the process of separating components in a mixture by passing them through a stiff material.

    Different components in the mixture are attracted to this material to different degrees. So, they exit the chromatography system at different times, which separates them from one another.

    With more research into the technique’s efficiency and technological advancements to scale up pyrolysis, this technique could be one part of a sustainable solution to plastic waste management. In the meantime, pyrolysis is being used now, with one report estimating the market for pyrolysis plants at US$40 billion in 2024 and predicting it to grow to $1.2 billion by 2033.

    Kevin A. Schug receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes for Health, ExxonMobil, and Weaver Consultants Group. He is affiliated with VUV Analytics, Inc. and Infinity Water Solutions as a member of their scientific advisory boards. Lummus Technology, LLC provided the funding for research on plastic waste pyrolysis oils at UT Arlington.

    Alexander Kaplitz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Plastic pyrolysis − chemists explain a technique attempting to tackle plastic waste by bringing the heat – https://theconversation.com/plastic-pyrolysis-chemists-explain-a-technique-attempting-to-tackle-plastic-waste-by-bringing-the-heat-234453

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: High soybean prices in Zambia and Malawi may make chicken costly too: lack of competition is to blame

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, Economist and Researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg

    Poultry is one of the cheapest protein sources for the growing population of the east and southern Africa region. That makes soybeans critical to food security in the region, as they are an important input in chicken feed.

    Soybean pricing and production dynamics have been challenging for Zambia and Malawi, threatening poultry production in the region.

    Poultry feed makes up 60%-70% of the total cost of poultry production. Soybean prices directly affect the affordability of poultry and the ability of producers to be competitive. Small-scale independent poultry producers in particular have a hard time because they buy feed from the open market and are too small to determine prices. Large producers source feed from their own operations and determine soybean prices.

    Figure 1: From soybeans to poultry

    Zambia and Malawi are the key soybean producers in east and southern Africa. Both countries were hit hard in 2024 by climate change related weather and by the behaviour of players in the soybean market, including processors and traders.

    Zambia’s soybean production fell by 74% because of poor rains and also because of farmers being squeezed. Large buyers had negotiated very low prices in previous years, so farmers planted less.

    Malawi’s production also fell (20%), but much less than Zambia’s. Yet the surge in soybean prices in Malawi by 48% between May 2024 and November 2024 was out of proportion with the drop in production, and even surpassed Zambian prices (Figure 2). Malawian prices were the highest in the region, even though it produced enough to export.

    We are economists at the African Market Observatory, which monitors prices of staple foods and conducts research on market dynamics. We analyse market concentration and barriers to entry, within and across countries in east and southern Africa, and we do in-depth field work.

    Our work shows that competition issues, such as the ability of large buyers to influence prices and high margins, are at the heart of the surge in prices and low production in Malawi and Zambia. The climate-related weather effects are an additional factor.

    Figure 2: Soybean prices in Zambia, Malawi and South Africa (benchmark) (3-month moving averages)

    Market outcomes

    In Zambia, dominant buyers of soybean offered farmers very low prices during the 2023 season – well below US$400/t and the South African benchmark (Figure 2). This meant that farmers planted less than half the 2023 crop in the 2024 season.

    Crops were also affected by poor rainfall. Malawi’s 2024 production fell by 20% because of the worst drought in 100 years. The drop in production was lower than expected, demonstrating that farmers can adapt to weather changes. Prices still rose, however, driven by the highly concentrated soybean trading and processing market.

    Cheapest source of proteins

    Poultry is one of the cheapest sources of protein and has one of the lowest environmental impacts. It is essential that the value chain works well from feed to chicken rearing and becomes more resilient to extreme weather events.

    The experience of 2024 shows what can go wrong.

    Poultry demand in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow more than fourfold by 2050. Producers will need affordable feed.

    Among them are many small-scale independent producers who rely on competitive markets for their inputs. Yet we found that with the escalating soybean and feed prices in Malawi from late 2021, and higher prices for day-old chicks, small independent producers had negative margins, meaning they made a loss in the second half of 2021. High feed prices undermine the competitiveness of Malawi’s poultry industry.

    Aside from South Africa (which relies on genetically modified soybean), Zambia and Malawi have been the largest producers in the region. These countries have been exporting around half of their production (including soycake) to neighbouring countries with larger populations such as Tanzania and Kenya.

    Zambia’s production plummet

    Between 2020 and 2023, Zambia’s soybean production grew from 297,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes (Figure 3). In 2024, its production collapsed by 74% to 170,000 tonnes. This sharp decline was primarily due to farmers opting to plant less soybean because of the low prices offered from processors in 2023 (Figure 2). Farmers bought 50% less soybean seed for the 2024 season than the 2023 season.

    Figure 3: Soybean production in Zambia and Malawi

    With limited storage facilities available for farmers in most countries in the region, including Zambia, farmers typically have to sell to traders and processors shortly after harvest.

    In Zambia, soybeans are produced by many small farmers, so they compete to sell their crop to a few main processors in a concentrated market. As a result, these processors have greater power to influence the terms of trade, such as price. This was especially evident in 2023 when processors offered farmers lower prices (Figure 2).

    Poor rainfall linked to the 2023/24 El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is the warming of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, causing drought in southern Africa while inducing heavy rainfalls and floods in eastern Africa, did have an impact across southern Africa, including Malawi and Zambia. While Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania recorded above average rainfall, their soybean output is low.

    Resilience to climate change impacts requires deepening and diversifying agriculture production across countries and regional trade to meet demand.

    Soybean prices in Malawi remain high but Zambia’s prices stabilise

    Malawi’s prices increased rapidly to over US$700/tonne in June 2024, surpassing Zambia’s, and continued to rise to almost $900/tonne at the end of the year, far above other countries in the region. The reason couldn’t be reduced production from poor rainfall, because production still exceeded local demand. This happened even as the Malawi government put export restrictions on soybeans (but not soymeal). The price surge raises competition concerns in Malawi, where trading and processing is highly concentrated. In theory, highly concentrated markets are characterised by high prices, due to a lack of price competition.

    By comparison, Zambia’s prices moderated because of imports. In addition, the low soybean prices offered to farmers in 2023 also meant that processors had crushed surplus soybeans, thereby building up soymeal stock. This reduced the demand for soybeans, as did power cuts in Zambia, which limited crushers’ operations.

    Urgent next steps

    Soybean developments over 2024 show the need to consider how competition issues within and across borders can undermine the resilience of regional food markets and hinder the ability of small producers to compete. Zambia is currently conducting a commercial poultry market inquiry. But a regional approach in monitoring markets and tackling anti-competitive conduct is necessary to support poultry production.

    Arthur Khomotso Mahuma works for the African Market Observatory (AMO), an initiative of the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED) at the University of Johannesburg. He is also a Competition Expert for the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate which has provided funding for CCRED’s for research on African Food Markets.

    Namhla Landani works for the African Market Observatory (AMO), an initiative of the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development at the University of Johannesburg. The AMO receives funding from the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate for research on African Food Markets.

    – ref. High soybean prices in Zambia and Malawi may make chicken costly too: lack of competition is to blame – https://theconversation.com/high-soybean-prices-in-zambia-and-malawi-may-make-chicken-costly-too-lack-of-competition-is-to-blame-250322

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Surf therapy for children with disabilities: how it’s changing lives in South Africa

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Roxy Davis, Doctor of philosophy, University of Cape Town

    Children with disabilities face significant challenges in South Africa. Firstly there are delayed diagnoses which can lead to complications. The high cost of healthcare and little financial support for their families can limit their access to healthcare services altogether.

    There is also little access to rehabilitation services. Inadequate facilities and a shortage of trained personnel are just some of the obstacles.

    I started thinking about ways to get over these obstacles when I noticed that people with disabilities weren’t well represented in my sport.

    As a competitive surfer and instructor, I had always celebrated the ocean’s ability to inspire confidence and resilience.

    Every day, the beach was alive with activity – surfers, families and ocean lovers. Yet among them, I rarely saw people with disabilities in the water.

    I began to notice that the beachfront itself, the infrastructure, the culture, and even my own surf school, weren’t actively creating space for inclusivity.

    This would eventually become the cornerstone of the Roxy Davis Foundation, established in 2019, and later my doctoral research focusing on ocean-based therapy for children with disabilities.

    I found surf therapy enhanced the mental, emotional, and physical well-being of these children.

    New therapy

    Surf therapy teaches people with disabilities to surf to promote psychological, physical and psychosocial well-being.

    The first peer reviewed publication on surf therapy appeared in 2010 and focused on Aboriginal children in Australia. It was about mitigating the inter-generational trauma suffered as a result of the government-sanctioned removal of Aboriginal children from their families, a policy that only ended in the 1970s.

    In 2020 a review of a 10-year period included 29 studies into war veterans and young adult cancer survivors, among others.

    One such study focused on children with autism spectrum disorder. The study took place in the north-west of Ireland. Children said they felt happier and free, while their parents said they were more relaxed and confident.

    A South African study with children with autism spectrum disorder explored the feasibility and unique benefits of an existing surf therapy programme and reported largely positive results.

    My own research involved an adapted surf therapy programme for children with a range of disabilities.

    Five children aged between 12 and 16 were enrolled. Altogether there were 35 participants including parents, counsellors, volunteers, physiotherapists and surf instructors.

    Four of the five children were from under-resourced communities in South Africa’s Western Cape province and all had either a physical, sensory, intellectual or cognitive impairment.

    None of the children had taken part in ocean sports before.

    Getting into the water

    For six weeks the children took part in a three-hour surf therapy session on a Friday afternoon.

    The first goal was to get the kids in the water. We used mobility mats, surfboards with handles and amphibious beach wheelchairs to help.

    Each child was taught now to surf according to their pace of learning and ability.

    There was also a “surfers’ circle” with a discussion topic for each session.

    After six weeks we conducted follow-up interviews to see what changes the children had experienced, and if these had any influence on their lives outside surfing.

    We also asked parents and counsellors to identify the most significant changes in the children.

    ‘I felt free and confident’

    Final interviews were completed one year later.

    Charlie, aged 12, with cerebral palsy: “If my brothers want to go surfing I don’t have to stay behind and just watch them, I can go surf with them. It is so cool to surf with my dad and my brothers.”

    Charlie’s teacher: “His self-awareness level and how he sees himself in the world has really improved.”

    Tala, aged 15, with cerebal palsy: “Once I started surfing, I felt free and confident. Even in other spaces, when I’m not surfing, like, ‘Yeah I can surf, I can do something like surfing that I didn’t know that I could do before.’ ”

    Tala’s school psychologist: “She went into this feeling very insecure, nervous and anxious. She said she will always remember who she was and how she felt before she went to the programme and how she came out of it … to be able to use that feeling and apply it to a different situation, that’s huge for her.”

    Princess, aged 15, with spina bifida: was determined to “wean” herself off using nappies after gaining confidence through surf therapy.

    Princess’s guardian described her experience as similar to “winning a gold medal … She was more confident in herself than ever. She is off that nappy completely now.”

    Thabo, aged 14, a leg amputee: “Before session one, I was feeling nervous and excited, but as soon as I got in the sea, the nerves disappeared. You look and realise you can actually do that. I feel like I belong in the ocean.”

    After the final session he said: “I can relax, I can be in control of my urges and my temper. I’m now not always thinking about what people think about me. I can be myself in many ways.”

    Rowan, aged 15, a quadruple amputee: “Before I started surfing, I was thinking I can’t do it until I tried it and just being there was like beyond being able to speak in my wildest dreams. I couldn’t believe I could surf in the ocean riding some waves.

    “On my first session, I was like ‘If I can do it, I can do it for the rest of my life’.”

    In his second interview he said: “My goal is to become a national champion and to become a Paralympic champion.”

    One year after the surf therapy programme he entered a provincial parasurfing competition, which he won. He was then selected to participate in the South African Para Surfing Championships in 2022, where he came second. Later that year he was selected to represent South Africa at the World Para Surfing Championships in California. Nineteen months after starting surfing, in December, on his 16th birthday, he competed in the World Championships and was placed 17th.

    Surf therapy demonstrates what’s possible when we focus on ability rather than limitation.

    Roxy Davis is affiliated with the Roxy Davis Foundation.

    – ref. Surf therapy for children with disabilities: how it’s changing lives in South Africa – https://theconversation.com/surf-therapy-for-children-with-disabilities-how-its-changing-lives-in-south-africa-245290

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ethiopia’s war may have ended, but the Tigray crisis hasn’t

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Assefa Leake Gebru, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Strategic Studies , Mekelle University

    For over 20 years, Ethiopia was led by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, a coalition of four ethnic-based political parties representing Tigray, Amhara, Oromo, and Southern nations, nationalities and peoples. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front was the most influential party within the coalition. However, in 2018, when the Prosperity Party came into power, the front lost its important role in government.

    On 4 November 2020, the federal government launched an attack on Tigray, terming it a military offensive against political aggression from the Tigrayan front. This sparked a war that lasted two years, and caused severe damage to people and resources. The African Union’s lead mediator in the crisis, Olusegun Obasanjo, estimated about 600,000 civilians were killed. This makes it one of the most destructive conflicts of the 21st century.

    On 2 November 2022, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front signed a peace deal in South Africa, the Pretoria agreement. More than two years later, however, Tigray still faces immense political and humanitarian challenges. Assefa Leake Gebru, who has studied post-war Tigray, explains what’s happening.

    What’s the current situation in Tigray?

    The 2022-2022 war and its lingering effects have thrown the Tigray region into chaos. People are grappling to get basics like food, water and medicine. The regional economy was devastated by the war. There have been no rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts so far. Humanitarian aid is limited. Imagine if your local grocery store ran out of everything and couldn’t restock – that’s the situation I have witnessed and studied in Tigray, which is affecting millions of residents.

    Additionally, the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front are now fighting among themselves for power. The division is mainly between two factions: one led by former regional president Debretsion Gebremichael and the other by Getachew Reda, who heads the interim administration.

    In January 2025, leaders of Tigray’s military forces supported calls from the Debretsion faction for new regional leadership. The interim administration opposed this, calling it a soft coup. The federal government considers the political faction led by Debretsion illegitimate. The military leaders’ decision also sparked public protests, with Tigrayans calling for a separation between the military and politics.

    This internal division has weakened the interim administration, which was installed as part of the Pretoria agreement in March 2023.

    Given this situation, the interim administration remains fragile amid serious humanitarian concerns and security threats facing the region. The interim government and dysfunctional law enforcement institutions aren’t strong enough to fix things.



    Read more:
    What is federalism? Why Ethiopia uses this system of government and why it’s not perfect

    Economically, jobs remain scarce. A 2024 survey found a youth unemployment rate of 81%. This situation has been created by economic collapse, asset plunder during the war and the absence of a functioning government.

    Socially, people are stressed and hurting, like a community still reeling from a major fallout. It’s a pile-up of problems that are making life incredibly tough.

    What, exactly, is the Pretoria agreement?

    The Pretoria agreement is an important peace deal between Tigray’s political leaders and the federal government. It was signed in Pretoria, South Africa, on 2 November 2022. The African Union facilitated the peace talks hosted by South Africa.

    The goal of the agreement? End the violence that began in 2020, keep people safe by calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, allow aid like food trucks to roll in, disarm Tigray fighters and set up an interim government to restore order.

    It also aimed to re-establish the Ethiopian government’s control over federal installations in Tigray.

    What has been implemented and what hasn’t?

    There has been some positive progress. The Pretoria agreement established the interim government. Some everyday services are back, like banks reopening and planes flying again. A few Tigray fighters have put down their weapons.

    But here’s where it gets messy. Soldiers from Eritrea – which supported the Ethiopian army in the Tigray war – and militias from another Ethiopian region, Amhara, are still hanging around Tigray, raising security threats. They’re preventing internally displaced persons from going back home.

    The plan to fully disarm Tigrayan fighters hasn’t been completed either. This threatens regional stability, undermines peace efforts and increases the risk of renewed violence.

    What are the implications of not fully executing the Pretoria agreement?

    First, the region’s humanitarian crisis could worsen. An estimated one million displaced people are grappling with high levels of food insecurity, and thousands of schools remain closed. A weak interim government and the continued occupation of parts of Tigray by armed groups has hindered the restoration of services and stifled economic progress.

    Second, the division within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front makes it hard to lead the region under an interim administration. A lack of consensus on power-sharing has hindered effective governance, undermining the intended transitional authority.

    Third, a weak interim government can’t keep civilians safe, which was a pillar of the Pretoria agreement. Economically, the lack of jobs and skyrocketing prices are hitting Tigrayans hard. Socially, everyone’s on edge.

    Finally, there’s a risk of igniting further conflict in the region along the political fault lines between Debretsion and Getachew. There is a high chance of this situation being manipulated by Eritrean forces, who weren’t involved in the negotiations that led to the Pretoria agreement. The fractures in the interim government provide an opportunity for neighbouring Eritrea to support one faction against the other, which could escalate into war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has been one of Eritrea’s bitterest enemies. The antagonism between the two led to the 1998-2000 war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

    If these tensions keep up, Tigray will remain stuck in an awful cycle. The African Union and international community must address these issues to prevent a spiral into further chaos.

    Assefa Leake Gebru does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ethiopia’s war may have ended, but the Tigray crisis hasn’t – https://theconversation.com/ethiopias-war-may-have-ended-but-the-tigray-crisis-hasnt-251846

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: People say they prefer stories written by humans over AI-generated works, yet new study suggests that’s not quite true

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Martin Abel, Assistant Professor of Economics, Bowdoin College

    Artificial intelligence is expected to generate a growing share of the world’s creative work. karetoria/Moment via Getty Images

    People say they prefer a short story written by a human over one composed by artificial intelligence, yet most still invest the same amount of time and money reading both stories regardless of whether it is labeled as AI-generated.

    That was the main finding of a study we conducted recently to test whether this preference of humans over AI in creative works actually translates into consumer behavior. Amid the coming avalanche of AI-generated work, it is a question of real livelihoods for the millions of people worldwide employed in creative industries.

    To investigate, we asked OpenAI’s ChatGPT 4 to generate a short story in the style of the critically acclaimed fiction author Jason Brown. We then recruited a nationally representative sample of over 650 people and offered participants US$3.50 to read and assess the AI-generated story. Crucially, only half the participants were told that the story was written by AI, while the other half was misled into believing it was the work of Jason Brown.

    After reading the first half of the AI-generated story, participants were asked to rate the quality of the work along various dimensions, such as whether they found it predictable, emotionally engaging, evocative and so on. We also measured participants’ willingness to pay in order to read to the end of the story in two ways: how much of their study compensation they’d be willing to give up, and how much time they’d agree to spend transcribing some text we gave them.

    So, were there differences between the two groups? The short answer: yes. But a closer analysis reveals some startling results.

    To begin with, the group that knew the story was AI-generated had a much more negative assessment of the work, rating it more harshly on dimensions like predictability, authenticity and how evocative it is. These results are largely in keeping with a nascent but growing body of research that shows bias against AI in areas like visual art, music and poetry.

    Nonetheless, participants were ready to spend the same amount of money and time to finish reading the story whether or not it was labeled as AI. Participants also did not spend less time on average actually reading the AI-labeled story.

    When asked afterward, almost 40% of participants said they would have paid less if the same story was written by AI versus a human, highlighting that many are not aware of the discrepancies between their subjective assessments and actual choices.

    Why it matters

    Our findings challenge past studies showing people favor human-produced works over AI-generated ones. At the very least, this research doesn’t appear to be a reliable indicator of people’s willingness to pay for human-created art.

    The potential implications for the future of human-created work are profound, especially in market conditions in which AI-generated work can be orders of magnitude cheaper to produce.

    Even though artificial intelligence is still in its infancy, AI-made books are already flooding the market, recently prompting the authors guild to instate its own labeling guidelines.

    Our research raises questions whether these labels are effective in stemming the tide.

    What’s next

    Attitudes toward AI are still forming. Future research could investigate whether there will be a backlash against AI-generated creative works, especially if people witness mass layoffs. After all, similar shifts occurred in the wake of mass industrialization, such as the arts and crafts movement in the late 19th century, which emerged as a response to the growing automation of labor.

    A related question is whether the market will segment, where some consumers will be willing to pay more based on the process of creation, while others may be interested only in the product.

    Regardless of how these scenarios play out, our findings indicate that the road ahead for human creative labor might be more uphill than previous research suggested. At the very least, while consumers may hold beliefs about the intrinsic value of human labor, many seem unwilling to put their money where their beliefs are.

    The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. People say they prefer stories written by humans over AI-generated works, yet new study suggests that’s not quite true – https://theconversation.com/people-say-they-prefer-stories-written-by-humans-over-ai-generated-works-yet-new-study-suggests-thats-not-quite-true-251347

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –