Source: China State Council Information Office
Three days of technical-level negotiations on the details of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine concluded Tuesday without an official joint statement, as participating parties offered somewhat conflicting assessments of the talks.
The intense parallel interactions between the United States and delegations from Ukraine and Russia on the table, including a 12-hour one between the United States and Russia on Monday, and two shorter rounds between the United States and Ukraine on Sunday and Tuesday, came as fighting on the battlefield remains intense.
Although Washington signaled on Tuesday its willingness to continue facilitating negotiations between the warring parties, analysts remain skeptical about the prospects of such a diplomatic push, citing deep-seated distrust, conflicting demands among stakeholders, and the inherent complexities of the process.
Conflicting assessments
For the latest talks, which build on previous negotiations held in Saudi Arabia and subsequent phone exchanges between the presidents of the three countries, the U.S. delegation included Andrew Peek, a senior director at the White House National Security Council, and Michael Anton, a senior official from the State Department. The Russian delegation was led by Grigory Karasin, chair of the Federation Council’s Foreign Affairs Committee, and Sergei Beseda, an advisor to the director of the Federal Security Service. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov headed the Ukrainian delegation.
On Tuesday, hours after the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations concluded their second round of talks, the White House issued separate statements elaborating on its understanding of the parallel meetings.
It stated that the United States had agreed separately with Russia and Ukraine to “ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea,” and to develop measures for implementing the presidents’ agreement to “ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine.”
The United States, with Russia and Ukraine respectively, also “welcomes the good offices of third countries with a view toward supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements” and “will continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace,” the statement added.
Among the outcomes of the U.S.-Russia talks, the United States pledged to help restore Russia’s access to the global market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce maritime insurance costs, and improve access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.
In the U.S.-Ukraine talks, both sides reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to facilitating the exchange of prisoners of war, securing the release of civilian detainees, and ensuring the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin stated on Tuesday that Russia and the United States had agreed to ensure the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative, contingent on the easing of sanctions on Russia’s agricultural and food trade.
Russia also stipulated the removal of restrictions on its food and fertilizer producers and exporters, the servicing of related Russian-flagged vessels in ports, and the supply of agricultural machinery to Russia, according to the Kremlin.
It further announced that a “temporary moratorium” on strikes against energy facilities — including nuclear power plants, oil refineries, gas pipelines, and hydroelectric dams — would be in effect for 30 days starting March 18 and “may be extended by mutual agreement.”
Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on March 18 to halt attacks on energy facilities in a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump.
As for Kiev, while Umerov stated on Tuesday that “all parties” had agreed on the need to prohibit attacks on energy infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he also warned that any movement of Russian military vessels beyond the eastern part of the Black Sea would “violate the agreement’s spirit” and be considered a “threat to Ukraine’s national security.” In response, Ukraine would exercise its right to self-defense, he cautioned.
Mixed sentiments
Commenting on the three-day peace negotiations, Trump said the U.S. side was “in deep discussions with Russia and Ukraine,” which were “going well.”
He added that he would look into Russia’s requests for sanctions relief.
However, the mood is quite different for both Russia and Ukraine. Although the meetings in Saudi Arabia hinted at the possibility of a broader ceasefire, the two countries remain wary of the latest deal, voicing contrasting concerns over its implementation.
In an interview with local media, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow needs “clear guarantees” from the White House regarding the agreement on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea.
“Given the sad experience of agreements with just Kiev, the guarantees can only be the result of an order from Washington to (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky and his team,” Lavrov said.
Zelensky accused the Kremlin of “lying” and “manipulating” by saying the Black Sea ceasefire depends on “sanctions,” warning that the Russians “must understand that if they launch strikes, there will be a strong response.”
At a press conference earlier Tuesday, Zelensky criticized Washington’s decision to help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural goods, dismissing it as “a weakening of the position and a weakening of sanctions.”
The Ukrainian president said he hopes to gain clarity from an upcoming summit in Paris regarding which countries would deploy forces to enforce the peace agreements.
“Our task is to come out with the result of understanding who we have and who is ready” to contribute forces to implement measures to halt the conflict, Zelensky said.
In the meantime, Europe, once again finding itself sidelined in addressing the conflict, has been actively organizing support for Ukraine in recent weeks.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced that leaders of the so-called “coalition of the willing” will meet again this week, focusing on short-term military support for Ukrainian forces and exploring long-term “security guarantees” to help sustain Ukraine’s defense. Macron’s remarks have been dismissed by the United States as “a posture and a pose.”
The meeting in Paris with Zelensky will be the latest in a series of high-stakes gatherings among European leaders, following London’s hosting of discussions on Thursday among European military chiefs from the coalition backing Ukraine.
Britain and France are taking a leading role in organizing Western support for Ukraine after Trump surprised Europe by initiating talks with Putin. The two European powers have pledged to help provide the military force needed to keep Russia “at bay” if a ceasefire is reached.
Uncertain future
Notably, the battlefield showed no signs of quieting despite the peace talks in Saudi Arabia, with both Russia and Ukraine reporting fresh waves of drone strikes and accusing each other of escalation.
On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine had “continued to deliberately strike Russian peaceful energy infrastructure facilities using UAVs.”
“By continuing daily attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, Zelensky confirms his inability to negotiate and his lack of control by external guarantors responsible for ensuring compliance with any possible agreements,” the ministry said.
In Ukraine, the number of people injured on Monday in a Russian missile strike on the northeastern city of Sumy rose to 101, including 23 children, according to the Sumy regional administration.
Preliminary data indicated that a Russian missile struck a residential area of the city, damaging several apartment buildings and an educational institution, the Sumy Regional Prosecutor’s Office said in a statement.
Experts have pointed out that a real, permanent peace settlement could be far off, citing deep-rooted divisions and a growing trust deficit among the stakeholders.
Khalid Almatrafi, Bureau Chief of Asharq TV in Saudi Arabia, told Xinhua that “the escalating mutual attacks … reflect the deepening gap between the two sides and complicate any negotiating process.”
The repeated accusations deepen mistrust and make it difficult to establish any “confidence-building measures,” which are essential for transitioning from a ceasefire to a sustainable political settlement, said Almatrafi.
Echoing Almatrafi’s viewpoint, Abdulaziz Alshaabani, a Saudi researcher at Al Riyadh Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said that “a lack of trust” poses a major threat to reaching an agreement, “given the history of violations of agreements between the two sides.”
“In 2022, several rounds of negotiations took place … in the end, nothing came of it,” said Andrey Kortunov, a scholar with the Valdai Discussion Club in Russia. “Over the past three years, there has been a major escalation, and the situation has changed,” making it “difficult for both sides to find compromises,” Kortunov said.
“Given the difficulty in enforcing a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure agreed upon last week, it remains to be seen how effective the latest deal will be,” The Independent, a British online newspaper, reported.
The newspaper also questioned Washington’s motives in assuming the mediator’s role, particularly concerning Ukraine’s mineral and energy resources.
“The Trump administration has claimed that Washington’s stake in Ukraine’s minerals and energy resources could deter Russia from launching future attacks,” but such a diplomatic push would, in fact, grant Washington “a vast stake in Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits,” it said.
“Ukraine’s gas infrastructure could also be of interest to the White House, with Kiev owning the world’s third-largest underground gas storage capacity,” it noted.
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