How does geopolitical uncertainty affect inflation? How do we keep monetary policy fit for purpose in a rapidly changing world? And what are the main topics at this year’s ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal?
In the first episode of our special Sintra series for The ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon discusses all these questions and more with Chief Economist and Executive Board member, Philip R. Lane.
The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
Published on 25 June 2025 and recorded on 16 June 2025.
In this episode:
01:28 The ECB Governing Council lowered key interest rates to 2%.
What was the motivation behind the decision?
04:30 How do we ensure that risks and uncertainties are integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process?
What is our baseline? What factors need to be taken into account?
06:44 Alternative scenarios in the latest projections
Why do we communicate our “what if” scenarios?
08:11 Meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach
Why do we follow this approach?
09:50 Strategy review
How can we make sure our strategy is up to date?
12:02 High-level uncertainty
How do we factor heightened uncertainty in our strategy?
13:50 ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal
What is the ECB Forum and what’s behind it? What’s the goal of the Forum? What’s Philip R. Lane looking forward to?
16:53 Our guest’s hot tip
Philip R. Lane shares his hot tip.
Programme of ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conference…_banking.en.html
Ken Rogoff “Our dollar, your problem”
yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275…r-your-problem/
The LCM Dialogue Series was designed to highlight Member States’ experience and showcase innovative capacity-building approaches and success stories in preparing and deploying uniformed personnel to UN peace operations. By promoting the exchange of lessons learned and best practices among troop- and police-contributing countries and capacity-building providers, this initiative aims to strengthen the preparedness and operational effectiveness of UN peacekeepers.
The Light Coordination Mechanism (LCM) is a shared service of the Division of Policy, Evaluation and Training (DPET) managed by the Integrated Training Service (ITS) in the UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO). The LCM facilitates partnerships between Member States and capacity-building providers to help deploy well-trained and well-equipped military and police personnel to peace operations. Areas of cooperation include training, equipment, infrastructure, logistics, technical support and knowledge management.
Opening remarks by Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón, President of the Government of the Kingdom of Spain, and President of the Conference, at the Opening of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development FFD4 (Sevilla, Spain).
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“It is time to take a step forward and not only reaffirm our commitment but redouble it. We must improve debt sustainability, ensure fiscal justice, and fulfill our commitments to international cooperation,” said Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain.
Opening remarks by Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón, President of the Government of the Kingdom of Spain, and President of the Conference, at the Opening of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development FFD4 (Sevilla, Spain).
—
“It is time to take a step forward and not only reaffirm our commitment but redouble it. We must improve debt sustainability, ensure fiscal justice, and fulfill our commitments to international cooperation,” said Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain.
Opening remarks by Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón, President of the Government of the Kingdom of Spain, and President of the Conference, at the Opening of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development FFD4 (Sevilla, Spain).
—
“It is time to take a step forward and not only reaffirm our commitment but redouble it. We must improve debt sustainability, ensure fiscal justice, and fulfill our commitments to international cooperation,” said Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain.
On 1 July 2025, Denmark takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union.
Over the next six months, we’ll work closely on the priorities of Denmark’s EU presidency:
A Secure, Competitive and Green Europe.
Opening remarks by Felipe VI, King of the Kingdom of Spain, a the Opening of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development FFD4 in Sevilla, Spain.
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King of Spain H.M. Don Felipe VI, also made remarks at the opening of the Conference.
The King said,“Despite the difficulties, we must continue on the long path of multilateral diplomacy, not because we believe that that is always the most direct or swiftest path, or because we refuse to see its clear shortcomings, but rather because we know where other paths have led.”
Source: World Trade Organization – WTO (video statements)
On 27 June, the Informal Working Group on Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) marked MSME Day, announcing two new Small Business Champions: SilaiWali (India) and NetZero Pallets (Viet Nam).
The ECB Forum on Central Banking – the Sintra Forum – is an annual event organised by the European Central Bank and is held in Sintra, Portugal.
It brings together central bank governors, academics, financial market representatives, journalists and others to exchange views on current policy issues and discuss the Forum’s key topic from a longer-term perspective.
The Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development adopted the Compromiso de Sevilla as well as a Platform for Action laying the foundation for a renewed global framework to close the $4 trillion financing gap for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), address the debt crises, and make the international financial system fairer and more transparent.
#ffd4 #sustainabledevelopment
One Day, I Will is an ongoing series by photographer Vincent Tremeau, capturing children in crisis-affected settings as they dress up as who they want to become in the future.
In 2025, one year after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck Japan’s Noto Peninsula on New Year’s Day, Vincent brought the project to local schools, inviting children to share their dreams, fears, and hopes in the wake of disaster.
These portraits and testimonies are more than dress-up — they reveal resilience, imagination, and the enduring strength of children who continue to dream, despite difficult circumstances. Each of them reminds us: hope can grow even from the most challenging places. “One Day I Will” is one of the exhibits in the UN Pavilion at Expo 2025 in Osaka, Kansai.
The project was made available by OCHA (UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) with support from KUMON, a global after-school math and reading programme.
Source: United States Department of Justice (video statements)
The Justice Department announced the results of its 2025 National Health Care Fraud Takedown, which resulted in criminal charges against 324 defendants, including 96 doctors, nurse practitioners, pharmacists, and other licensed medical professionals, in 50 federal districts and 12 State Attorneys General’s Offices across the United States, for their alleged participation in various health care fraud schemes involving over $14.6 billion in intended loss. The Takedown involved federal and state law enforcement agencies across the country and represents an unprecedented effort to combat health care fraud schemes that exploit patients and taxpayers.
Noon Briefing by Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General.
Highlights:
Secretary-General/Conference on Financing for Development
Deputy Secretary-General/FfD4
Gender Equality
Gaza
Occupied Palestinian Territory
Security Council
An Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Syria
Ukraine
Sudan
DRC/Rwanda
Afghanistan Refugees
International Days
Financial Contribution
UNGA80
Programming Note
SECRETARY-GENERAL/CONFERENCE ON FINANCING FOR DEVELOPMENT
The Secretary-General is in Sevilla, Spain, where he is attending the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development. This morning, at the opening of the Conference, he said that financing is the engine of development, and right now, this engine is sputtering.
“As we meet,” the Secretary-General pointed out, “the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, our global promise to transform our world for a better, fairer future, is in danger. He stressed that the conference is not about charity, it’s about restoring justice and lives of dignity.”
The Secretary-General also added that the conference is not about money, it’s about investing in the future we want to build, together.
In the afternoon, at the launch of the Sevilla Platform for Action, the Secretary-General highlighted that the Platform offers an ambitious, action-oriented response to the global financing challenge.
Soon after, at the opening of the International Business Forum, the Secretary-General underscored that by uniting public and private sector leaders, regulators and development banks, we can ensure that the conference is not an end, but rather a beginning.
The Secretary-General also addressed that media in a joint press encounter with the President of the Government of Spain, Pedro Sánchez. He stressed that with the adoption of the Sevilla Commitment document, countries are proving their dedication to getting the engine of development revving again.
Today, the Secretary-General also held a bilateral meeting with the President of the Government of Spain, and yesterday, he met His Majesty Don Felipe VI, King of Spain, He is also having a number of bilateral meetings with other delegation leaders who will be at the conference. We will share readouts of some of those meetings shortly.
DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL/FFD4
Ms. Amina Mohammed, the Deputy Secretary-General, joined the Secretary-General for the opening ceremony of the conference and his meeting with the President of the Government of Spain.
Later, she delivered remarks at side events focused on closing the SDG financing gap, including on the role of public-private cooperation, the centrality of gender equality in sustainable finance, and the leadership of African women in advancing the 2030 Agenda and Agenda 2063.
She also held bilateral meetings with senior government officials and Heads of Government attending the conference.
GENDER EQUALITY
At the Fourth International Financing for Development conference in Spain, the adoption of the Compromiso de Sevilla reaffirmed the global commitment to inclusive sustainable development. However, UN Women is warning that chronic underfunding and unfair financial systems are hindering gender equality progress.
Developing countries are falling short by an estimated $420 billion a year in the funding needed to achieve gender equality under the Sustainable Development Goals.
UN Women is urging world leaders to match political commitments with the sustained, transparent, and accountable financing needed to deliver on promises to half the world’s population.
Full Highlights:
https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/noon-briefing-highlight?date%5Bvalue%5D%5Bdate%5D=30%20June%202025
Noon Briefing by Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General.
Highlights:
Secretary-General/Conference on Financing for Development
Deputy Secretary-General/FfD4
Gender Equality
Gaza
Occupied Palestinian Territory
Security Council
An Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Syria
Ukraine
Sudan
DRC/Rwanda
Afghanistan Refugees
International Days
Financial Contribution
UNGA80
Programming Note
SECRETARY-GENERAL/CONFERENCE ON FINANCING FOR DEVELOPMENT
The Secretary-General is in Sevilla, Spain, where he is attending the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development. This morning, at the opening of the Conference, he said that financing is the engine of development, and right now, this engine is sputtering.
“As we meet,” the Secretary-General pointed out, “the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, our global promise to transform our world for a better, fairer future, is in danger. He stressed that the conference is not about charity, it’s about restoring justice and lives of dignity.”
The Secretary-General also added that the conference is not about money, it’s about investing in the future we want to build, together.
In the afternoon, at the launch of the Sevilla Platform for Action, the Secretary-General highlighted that the Platform offers an ambitious, action-oriented response to the global financing challenge.
Soon after, at the opening of the International Business Forum, the Secretary-General underscored that by uniting public and private sector leaders, regulators and development banks, we can ensure that the conference is not an end, but rather a beginning.
The Secretary-General also addressed that media in a joint press encounter with the President of the Government of Spain, Pedro Sánchez. He stressed that with the adoption of the Sevilla Commitment document, countries are proving their dedication to getting the engine of development revving again.
Today, the Secretary-General also held a bilateral meeting with the President of the Government of Spain, and yesterday, he met His Majesty Don Felipe VI, King of Spain, He is also having a number of bilateral meetings with other delegation leaders who will be at the conference. We will share readouts of some of those meetings shortly.
DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL/FFD4
Ms. Amina Mohammed, the Deputy Secretary-General, joined the Secretary-General for the opening ceremony of the conference and his meeting with the President of the Government of Spain.
Later, she delivered remarks at side events focused on closing the SDG financing gap, including on the role of public-private cooperation, the centrality of gender equality in sustainable finance, and the leadership of African women in advancing the 2030 Agenda and Agenda 2063.
She also held bilateral meetings with senior government officials and Heads of Government attending the conference.
GENDER EQUALITY
At the Fourth International Financing for Development conference in Spain, the adoption of the Compromiso de Sevilla reaffirmed the global commitment to inclusive sustainable development. However, UN Women is warning that chronic underfunding and unfair financial systems are hindering gender equality progress.
Developing countries are falling short by an estimated $420 billion a year in the funding needed to achieve gender equality under the Sustainable Development Goals.
UN Women is urging world leaders to match political commitments with the sustained, transparent, and accountable financing needed to deliver on promises to half the world’s population.
Full Highlights:
https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/noon-briefing-highlight?date%5Bvalue%5D%5Bdate%5D=30%20June%202025
Opening remarks by António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, at the International Business Forum Opening, of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development FFD4 (Sevilla, Spain).
Opening remarks by António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, at the International Business Forum Opening, of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development FFD4 (Sevilla, Spain).
Source: United Kingdom UK Parliament (video statements)
The Petitions Committee has scheduled a debate relating to driven grouse shooting.
John Lamont MP has been asked by the Committee to open the debate. The Government will send a Minister to respond.
Read the petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700036
Find petitions you agree with, and sign them: https://petition.parliament.uk/
What are petition debates?
Petition debates are ‘general’ debates which allow MPs from all parties to discuss the important issues raised by one or more petitions, and put their concerns to Government Ministers.
Petition debates don’t end with a vote to implement the request of a petition. This means that MPs will not vote on the issues raised in the petition at the end of the debate.
The Petitions Committee can only schedule debates on petitions to parliament started on petition.parliament.uk
Find out more about how petition debates work: https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/326/petitions-committee/content/194347/how-petitions-debates-work/
Stay up-to-date
Follow the Committee on Twitter for real-time updates on its work: https://www.twitter.com/hocpetitions
In Gaza, UNDSS enables safe movement for UN and NGO personnel through high-risk areas. This video captures a recent NGO convoy to North Gaza, showcasing the coordination and security behind every mission.
Women have made remarkable strides in political representation in the past decade, making up 35.5% of local government officials, 33% of parliamentarians, 24.4% of ministers and 15.5% of heads of state. Yet political power remains out of reach for a disproportionate number of women.
How can this persistent gap be tackled?
This is the full audio from a panel discussion from the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting on 22 January, 2025.
Watch it here: https://www.weforum.org/meetings/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2025/sessions/towards-parity-in-power/
Read the Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2025: https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-gender-gap-report-2025/
Speakers:
Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, Minister of State, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Mina Al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief, The National
Catherine De Bolle, Executive Director, Europol
François Valérian, Chair, Transparency International
Alicia Bárcena Ibarra, Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources, Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources of Mexico
Check out all our podcasts on wef.ch/podcasts (http://wef.ch/podcasts) :
Today at 11:30 CET, we will announce the results of our strategy assessment.
At 13:00 CET / 12:00 noon Lisbon time, President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip R. Lane will answer questions from journalists in a press conference.
Opening remarks by António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, at the Opening of the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development FFD4 (Sevilla, Spain).
“Your Majesties,
Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,
I thank the Government and people of Spain for welcoming us to Sevilla for this important conference.
For decades, the mission of sustainable development has united countries large and small, developed and developing.
Together, we achieved progress.
Reducing global poverty and hunger.
Saving lives with stronger health care systems.
Getting more children into school.
Expanding opportunities for women and girls.
And strengthening social safety nets.
But today, development and its great enabler — international cooperation — are facing massive headwinds.
We are living in a world where trust is fraying and multilateralism is strained.
A world with a slowing economy, rising trade tensions, and decimated aid budgets.
A world shaken by inequalities, climate chaos and raging conflicts.
The link between peace and development is clear.
Nine of the ten countries with the lowest Human Development Indicators are currently in a state of conflict.
Excellencies,
Financing is the engine of development.
And right now, this engine is sputtering.
As we meet, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development — our global promise to transform our world for a better, fairer future — is in danger.
Two-thirds of the Sustainable Development Goals targets are lagging.
Achieving them requires an investment of more than $4 trillion a year.
But this is not just a crisis of numbers.
It’s a crisis of people.
Of families going hungry.
Of children going unvaccinated.
Of girls forced to drop out of school.
We are here in Sevilla to change course.
To repair and rev up the engine of development to accelerate investment at the scale and speed required.
And to restore a measure of fairness and justice for all.
Excellencies,
The Sevilla Commitment document is a global promise to fix how the world supports countries as they climb the development ladder.
I see three areas of action.
First — we must get resources flowing. Fast.
Countries must lead by mobilizing domestic resources and investing in areas of greatest impact: schools, health care, social protection, decent work, and renewable energy.
Unlocking these investments requires strengthening tax systems, and tackling illicit financial flows and tax evasion.
And helping developing countries dedicate a greater share of their tax revenues to the systems people need.
The Sevilla Commitment’s call on developed countries to double their aid dedicated to domestic resource mobilization can support this.
Multilateral and national development banks must unite to finance major investments.
This includes tripling the lending capacity of Multilateral Development Banks — and rechanneling Special Drawing Rights that can unlock lending capacity and help developing countries boost investment.
We also need innovative financing solutions to unlock private capital.
Solutions that mitigate currency risks;
That combine public and private finance more effectively, and ensure the risks and rewards of development projects are shared by both the public and private sectors;
And that ensure financial regulations assess risk appropriately and support investments in frontier markets.
Second — we must fix the global debt system which is unsustainable, unfair and unaffordable.
With annual debt service at $1.4 trillion, countries need — and deserve — a system that lowers borrowing costs, enables fair and timely debt-restructuring, and prevents debt crises in the first place.
The Sevilla Commitment lays the groundwork:
By creating a single debt registry for transparency, and promoting responsible lending and borrowing;
By lowering the cost of capital through debt swaps and debt management support;
And through debt service pauses in times of emergency.
And third — we must increase the participation of developing countries in the institutions of the global financial architecture. The present major shareholders have a role to play recognizing the importance of correcting injustices and adapting to a changing world.
A new borrowers forum will give voice to borrowers for fairer debt resolution and can foster transparency, shared learning and coordinated debt action.
And we need a fairer global tax system shaped by all, not just a few.
Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,
This conference is not about charity.
It’s about restoring justice and lives of dignity.
This conference is not about money.
It’s about investing in the future we want to build, together.
Thank you all for being part of this important and ambitious effort”.