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Category: The Conversation

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Poland, divided between Trump and the EU

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Jacques Rupnik, Directeur de recherche émérite, Centre de recherches internationales (CERI), Sciences Po

    Karol Nawrocki in the Oval Office with Donald Trump on May 25th 2025, ten days before the first round of the Polish presidential election. It is very rare for a sitting US president to receive a candidate in a foreign election.
     White House X account

    Nawrocki’s narrow victory (50.89%) over Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and candidate of the government coalition, illustrates and reinforces the political polarisation of Poland and the rise of the populist “Trumpist” right in Central and Eastern Europe. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, there has been much speculation about whether Europe’s geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting eastwards. The Polish election seems to confirm that the political centre of gravity is shifting to the right.

    A narrow victory

    We are witnessing a relative erosion of the duopoly of the two major parties, Civic Platform (PO) and Law and Justice (PiS), whose leaders – the current Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, and Jarosław Kaczyński respectively – have dominated the political landscape for over twenty years.

    Kaczyński’s skill lay in propelling a candidate with no responsibilities in his party, who was little known to the general public a few months ago, and, above all, who is from a different generation, to the presidency (a position held since 2015 by a PiS man, Andrzej Duda). Nawrocki, a historian by training and director of the Polish Institute of National Remembrance, has helped shape PiS’s memory policy. He won the second round, despite his troubled past as a hooligan, by appealing to voters on the right.

    In the first round, he won 29.5% of the vote, compared to Trzaskowski’s 31.36%, but the two far-right candidates, Sławomir Mentzen (an ultra-nationalist and economic libertarian) and Grzegorz Braun (a monarchist, avowed reactionary, and anti-Semite), won a total of 21% of the vote. They attracted a young electorate (60% of 18–29-year-olds), who overwhelmingly transferred their votes to Nawrocki in the second round.


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    Despite a high turnout of 71% and favourable votes from the Polish diaspora (63%), Trzaskowski was unable to secure enough votes from the first-round candidates linked to the governing coalition, including those on the left (who won 10% between them) and the centre-right (Szymon Hołownia’s Third Way movement, which won 5% in the first round).

    A Tusk government struggling to implement its programme

    There are two Polands facing each other: the big cities, where incomes and levels of education are higher, and the more rural small towns, which are more conservative on social issues and more closely linked to the Catholic Church.
    The themes of nationhood – Nawrocki’s campaign slogan was “Poland first, Poles first” – family, and traditional values continue to resonate strongly with an electorate that has been loyal to PiS for more than twenty years. The electoral map, which shows a clear north-west/south-east divide, is similar to those of previous presidential elections and even echoes the partition of Poland at the end of the eighteenth century. The PiS vote is strongest in the part of the country that was under Russian rule until 1918. A more traditional Catholicism in these less developed regions, coupled with a strong sense of national identity, partly explains these historical factors.

    The economic explanation for the vote is unconvincing. Over the past 25 years, Poland has undergone tremendous transformation, driven by steady economic growth. GDP per capita has risen from 25% to 80% of the EU average, although this growth has been unevenly distributed. Nevertheless, a relatively generous welfare state has been preserved.

    Clearly, however, this growth, driven by investment from Western Europe (primarily Germany) and European structural funds (3% of GDP), does not provide a sufficient electoral base for a liberal, centrist, pro-European government.

    It is precisely the government’s performance that may hold the key to Trzaskowski’s failure. Having come to power at the end of 2023 with a reformist agenda, Donald Tusk’s government has only been able to implement part of its programme, and it is difficult to be the candidate of an unpopular government. Conversely, the governing coalition has been weakened by the failure of its candidate.

    The main reason for the stalling of reforms is the presidential deadlock. Although the president has limited powers, he countersigns laws and overriding his veto requires a three fifth majority in parliament, which the governing coalition lacks.

    The president also plays a role in foreign policy by representing the country, and above all by appointing judges, particularly to the Supreme Court. This has hindered the judicial reforms expected after eight years of PiS rule. It is mainly in this area that Duda has obstructed progress. The election of Nawrocki, who is known for his combative nature, suggests that the period of cohabitation will be turbulent.

    What are the main international implications of Nawrocki’s election?

    Donald Tusk is now more popular in Europe than in Poland; in this respect, we can speak of a “Gorbachev syndrome”. In Central Europe, the Visegrad Group (comprising Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia) is deeply divided by the war in Ukraine, but it could find common ground around a populist sovereignty led by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. Orbán was the first to congratulate Nawrocki on his victory, followed by his Slovak neighbour Robert Fico. The Czech Republic could also see a leader from this movement come to power if Andrej Babiš wins the parliamentary elections this autumn. Nawrocki would fit right into this picture.

    Since Donald Tusk returned to power, particularly during Poland’s EU presidency, which ends on 30 June, the focus has been on Poland’s “return” to the heart of the European process. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and Poland’s pivotal role in coordinating a European response, the Weimar Group (comprising Paris, Berlin, and Warsaw) has emerged as a key player. Three converging factors have made this possible: the French president’s firm stance toward Russia; the new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, breaking a few taboos on defence and budgetary discipline; and Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council, regaining a place at the heart of the EU that his predecessors had abandoned. A framework for a strategic Europe was taking shape.

    However, President Nawrocki, and the PiS more generally, are taking a different approach to the EU: they are positioning themselves as Eurosceptic opponents defending sovereignty. They are playing on anti-German sentiment by demanding reparations 80 years after the end of the Second World War and asserting Poland’s sovereignty in the face of a “Germany-dominated Europe”. The Weimar Triangle, recently strengthened by the bilateral treaty between France and Poland signed on 9 May 2025, could be weakened on the Polish–German flank.

    As a historian and former director of the Second World War Museum in Gdansk and the Institute of National Remembrance, Nawrocki is well placed to exploit this historical resentment. He has formulated a nationalist memory policy centred on a discourse of victimhood, portraying Poland as perpetually under attack from its historic enemies, Russia and Germany.

    While there is a broad consensus in Poland regarding the Russian threat, opinions differ regarding the government’s desire to separate the traumas of the past, particularly those of the last war, from the challenges of European integration today.

    Memory issues also play a prominent role in relations with Ukraine. There is total consensus on the need to provide military support to Ukraine, under attack: this is obvious in Poland, given its history and geography – defending Ukraine is inseparable from Polish security. However, both Nawrocki and Trzaskowski have touched upon the idea that Ukraine should apologise for the crimes committed by Ukrainian nationalists during the last war, starting with the massacre of more than 100,000 Poles in Volyn (Volhynia), north-western Ukraine) by Stepan Bandera’s troops.

    Alongside memory policy, Nawrocki and the PiS are calling for the abolition of the 800 zloty (190 euros) monthly allowance paid to Ukrainian refugees. Poland had more than one million Ukrainian workers prior to the war, and more than two million additional workers have arrived since it started, although around one million have since relocated to other countries, primarily Germany and the Czech Republic.

    Prior to the second round of the presidential election, Nawrocki readily signed the eight demands of the far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen, which included ruling out Ukraine’s future NATO membership. Playing on anti-Ukrainian (and anti-German) sentiment, alongside Euroscepticism and sovereignty, is one of the essential elements of the new president’s nationalist discourse.

    A Central and Eastern European Trumpism?

    Certain themes of the Polish election converge with a trend present throughout Central and Eastern Europe. We saw this at work in the Romanian presidential election, where the unsuccessful far-right nationalist candidate, George Simion, came to Warsaw to support Nawrocki, just as the winner, the pro-European centrist Nicușor Dan, lent his support to Trzaskowski. Nawrocki’s success reinforces an emerging “Trumpist” movement in Eastern Europe, with Viktor Orbán in Budapest seeing himself as its self-proclaimed leader. A year ago, Orbán coined the slogan “Over there (in the United States), it’s MAGA; here, it will be MEGA: Make Europe Great Again”. The “Patriots for Europe” group, launched by Orbán last year, is intended to unify this movement within the European Parliament.

    American conservative networks, through the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a gathering of international hard-right figures, and the Trump administration are directly involved in this process. Shortly before the presidential election, Nawrocki travelled to Washington to arrange a photo opportunity with Trump in the Oval Office.

    Most notably, two days before the election, Kristi Noem, the US Secretary of Homeland Security, was dispatched on a mission to Poland. Speaking at the CPAC conference in Rzeszów, she explicitly linked a vote for Nawrocki to US security guarantees for Poland:

    “If you (elect) a leader that will work with President Donald J. Trump, the Polish people will have a strong ally that will ensure that you will be able to fight off enemies that do not share your values. […] You will have strong borders and protect your communities and keep them safe, and ensure that your citizens are respected every single day. […] You will continue to have a U.S. presence here, a military presence. And you will have equipment that is American-made, that is high quality.”

    “Fort Trump”, that is how the outgoing President Andrzej Duda named the US military base financed by Poland after a bilateral agreement was signed with Donald Trump during his first term in office, in 2018. Similarly, the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs sent a letter to the President of the European Commission accusing her of applying “double standards”, pointing out that EU funds had been blocked when the PiS was in power, and claiming that European money had been used to influence the outcome of the Polish presidential election in favour of Trzaskowski. The letter was posted online on the State Department website. Prioritising the transatlantic link at the expense of strengthening Europe was one of the issues at stake in the Warsaw presidential election.

    CPAC is playing a significant role in building a Trumpist national-populist network based on rejecting the “liberal hegemony” established in the post-1989 era, regaining sovereignty from the EU, and defending conservative values against a “decadent” Europe. Beyond the Polish presidential election, the goal seems clear: to divide Europeans and weaken them at a time when the transatlantic relationship is being redefined.

    Jacques Rupnik ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Poland, divided between Trump and the EU – https://theconversation.com/poland-divided-between-trump-and-the-eu-260007

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: 1 in 3 Tuvaluans is bidding for a new ‘climate visa’ to Australia – here’s why everyone may ultimately end up applying

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jane McAdam, Scientia Professor and ARC Laureate Fellow, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Sydney

    Photo by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images for Lumix

    In just four days, one-third of the population of Tuvalu entered a ballot for a new permanent visa to Australia.

    This world-first visa will enable up to 280 Tuvaluans to move permanently to Australia each year, from a current population of about 10,000. The visa is open to anyone who wants to work, study or live in Australia. Unlike other visa schemes for Pacific peoples, a job offer in Australia is not required.

    While the visa itself doesn’t mention climate change, the treaty that created it is framed in the context of the “existential threat posed by climate change”. That’s why when it was announced, I described it as the world’s first bilateral agreement on climate mobility.

    The Australian government, too, has called it “the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world, providing a pathway for mobility with dignity as climate impacts worsen”.

    The high number of ballot applications may come as a surprise to many, especially given there were multiple concerns within Tuvalu when the treaty was first announced. Even so, some analysts predicted all Tuvaluans would apply eventually, to keep their options open.

    Tuvalu is one of the world’s smallest countries, covering just 26 square kilometres.
    Hao Hsiang Chen, Shutterstock

    Grabbing the chance

    The visa highlights the importance of creating opportunities for people to move in the context of climate change and disasters. The dangers of rising sea levels are clearly apparent, including coastal flooding, storm damage and water supplies. But there is a lot more at play here.

    For many, especially young families, this will be seen as a chance for education and skills training in Australia. Giving people choices about if, when and where they move is empowering and enables them to make informed decisions about their own lives.

    For the government of Tuvalu, the new visa is also about shoring up the economy. Migration is now a structural component of many Pacific countries’ economies.

    The money migrants send back to their home countries to support their families and communities is known as remittances. In 2023, remittances comprised 28% of GDP in Samoa and nearly 42% of GDP in Tonga – the highest in the world. Currently, Tuvalu sits at 3.2%.

    A long time coming

    Well before climate change became an issue of concern, Tuvalu had been lobbying Australia for special visa pathways. Demographic pressures, combined with limited livelihood and educational opportunities, made it a live policy issue throughout the 1980s and ‘90s. In 1984, a review of Australia’s foreign aid program suggested improved migration opportunities for Tuvaluans may be the most useful form of assistance.

    By the early 2000s, the focus had shifted to the existential threats posed by climate change. In 2006, as then-shadow environment minister, Anthony Albanese released a policy discussion paper called Our Drowning Neighbours. It proposed that Australia create Pacific migration pathways as part of a neighbourly response. In 2009, a spokesperson for Penny Wong, then minister for climate change, stated permanent migration might eventually be the only option for some Pacific peoples.

    When combined with other Pacific pathways to Australia and New Zealand, nearly 4% of the population could migrate each year. This is “an extraordinarily high level”, according to one expert. Within a decade, close to 40% of the population could have moved – although some people may return home or go backwards and forwards.

    How will the new arrivals be received?

    The real test of the new visa’s success will be how people are treated when they arrive in Australia.

    Will they be helped to adjust to life here, or will they feel isolated and shut out? Will they be able to find work and training, or will they find themselves in insecure and uncertain circumstances? Will they feel a loss of cultural connection, or will they be able to maintain cultural traditions within the growing Tuvaluan diaspora?

    Ensuring sound and culturally appropriate settlement services are in place will be crucial. These would ideally be co-developed with members of the Tuvaluan community, to “centralise Tuvaluan culture and values, in order to ensure ongoing dialogue and trust”.

    It has been suggested by experts that a “liaison officer with Tuvaluan cultural expertise and language skills could assist in facilitating activities such as post-arrival programs”, for instance.

    Learning from experience

    There are also many important lessons to be learned from the migration of Tuvaluans to New Zealand, to reduce the risk of newcomers experiencing economic and social hardship.

    Ongoing monitoring and refinement of the scheme will also be key. It should involve the Tuvaluan diaspora, communities back in Tuvalu, service providers in Australia, as well as federal, state/territory and local governments.

    By freeing up resources and alleviating stress on what is already a fragile atoll environment, migration may enable some people to remain in Tuvalu for longer, supported by remittances and extended family networks abroad.

    As some experts have suggested, money sent home from overseas could be used to make families less vulnerable to climate change. It might help them buy rainwater tanks or small boats, or improve internet and other communications. Remittances are also beneficial when they are invested in services that lift the level of education of children or boost social capital.

    Australia is offering ‘climate visas’ to 280 residents of Tuvalu (10 News First)

    Delaying a mass exodus

    It is difficult to know when a tipping point might be reached. For instance, some have warned that if too few people remain in Tuvalu, this could constrain development by limiting the availability of labour and skills. A former president of Kiribati, Teburoro Tito, once told me migration was “a double-edged sword”. While it could help people secure employment overseas and remit money, “the local economy, the local setup, also has to have enough skilled people” – otherwise it’s counterproductive.

    With visas capped at 280 a year – and scope to adjust the numbers if concerns arise – we are still a long way from that point. Right now, the new visa provides a safety net to ensure people have choices about how they respond to climate change. With the visa ballot open until July 18, many more people may yet apply.



    Read more:
    Fresh details emerge on Australia’s new climate migration visa for Tuvalu residents. An expert explains

    Jane McAdam receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and is the Director of the ARC Evacuations Research Hub at the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Sydney.

    – ref. 1 in 3 Tuvaluans is bidding for a new ‘climate visa’ to Australia – here’s why everyone may ultimately end up applying – https://theconversation.com/1-in-3-tuvaluans-is-bidding-for-a-new-climate-visa-to-australia-heres-why-everyone-may-ultimately-end-up-applying-259990

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Africa’s development banks are being undermined: the continent will pay the price

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Danny Bradlow, Professor/Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancement of Scholarship, University of Pretoria

    Ghana and Zambia’s official creditors are pressing them to default on loans to two African multilateral financial institutions: the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the Trade and Development Bank (TDB).

    These creditors, in effect, are demanding that the two countries prioritise repayments to themselves over payments to these two banks.

    As academics who have worked on the challenges of financing sustainable development in Africa, we believe this action is short-sighted.

    The action by Ghana and Zambia’s official creditors has two significant implications.

    First, they are demanding that the two countries treat Afreximbank and the Trade and Development Bank as commercial creditors. This would undermine the banks’ credit ratings and increase their borrowing costs. It would also reduce their capacity to finance sustainable development in Africa.

    Second, pressing Ghana and Zambia to default, rather than supporting pragmatic restructuring aligned with their strong growth prospects, exacerbates Ghana and Zambia’s financial vulnerability. Either they would have to use scarce resources to pay these debts or default on their obligations, in which case, the banks might well sue them.

    Quotes from Ghana and Zambia’s ministries of finance suggest the decision to default is their own. However, they faced intense pressure from their official creditors to treat the two African multilateral financial institutions differently from all their other multilateral creditors.

    Why does this differential treatment matter?

    Preferred creditor status

    Multilateral financial institutions, including the World Bank and African Development Bank, have a preferred creditor status. This is in recognition of the special role they play. They are expected to provide relatively low-cost funding for public investment, economic stability and long-term sustainable development in low- and middle-income countries.

    Their preferred creditor status ensures that, when countries experience debt distress, their development mandate is prioritised over the concerns of commercial creditors. Commercial creditors normally only fund commercially viable transactions. They charge high interest rates to compensate for the risk of default on these transactions.

    Both Afreximbank and Trade and Development Bank were created to fill a gap in Africa’s access to critical development finance. They provide financing for projects and transactions that commercial institutions and other multilateral financial institutions cannot – or will not – provide, because of capital limits, regulations or perceptions of risk.

    For example, Afreximbank’s charter notes that

    the decline in African exports has impacted adversely on the economies of African states and hindered their ability to achieve a self-reliant development.

    It further recognises that stimulating economic development

    can best be achieved through the creation of a trade financing international institution whose principal purpose is to provide and mobilise the requisite financial resources.

    Historically, it has enjoyed preferred creditor status to support its role in meeting this purpose.

    Why preferred creditor status is being challenged

    The two countries’ official creditor committees, the rating agency Fitch and other commentators are challenging the preferred creditor status of the two African institutions. They argue that the two banks are different from multilateral financial institutions like the World Bank and the African Development Bank that only have states as shareholders. They suggest that the private shareholders in the two African banks should not benefit from preferred creditor status. Instead, they should receive the same status as commercial creditors.



    Read more:
    Ghana and Zambia have snubbed Africa’s leading development bank: why they should change course

    This view ignores the reason that Afreximbank’s and the Trade and Development Bank’s member states authorised them to have private shareholders. It was a deliberate, pragmatic measure designed to fill a gap in Africa’s access to affordable development finance.

    The idea was to create new multilateral institutions that could raise capital flexibly and quickly on terms that the individual African states could not match on their own. Several other regional development banks have this hybrid model, including CAF, a highly rated development bank in Latin America.

    It is perverse that this creative and pragmatic approach to filling a gap in the global financial system is now being used against the two African banks.

    The consequences

    The cost of capital for the two African financial institutions will increase if they are treated like commercial creditors. This will reduce their capacity to lend and their financing will become more expensive. It will also deepen inequality in the global financial system. Lastly, it will increase the risk of future African sovereign debt defaults.

    In other words, downgrading their status risks undermining the very stability that official creditors claim to safeguard. It will also create another obstacle to Africa’s efforts to access stable, predictable and affordable flows of development finance.

    The eventual outcome of the official creditors’ action will ultimately depend on negotiations between Ghana and Zambia and their creditors. This will include the two African institutions. It will also be influenced by how these different groups of creditors behave in other African sovereign debt restructurings.

    However, the international community can seek to influence the outcome by taking actions in appropriate international settings.

    Global leaders are searching for ways to scale up and strengthen the capacity of regional and subregional development banks like Afreximbank and the Trade and Development Bank. This requires respecting their preferred creditor status and increasing their access to affordable capital.

    This is precisely the opposite of what is unfolding.

    There is still time for the creditor governments to change course by demonstrating their support for African multilateral financial institutions.

    Danny Bradlow, in addition to his position at University of Pretoria, is Senior G20 Advisor to the South African Institute of International Affairs and co-chair of the T20 sask force on sustainable financing.

    Lisa Sachs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Africa’s development banks are being undermined: the continent will pay the price – https://theconversation.com/africas-development-banks-are-being-undermined-the-continent-will-pay-the-price-259404

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Celebrities, blue jeans and couture: how Anna Wintour changed fashion over 37 years at Vogue

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jye Marshall, Lecturer, Fashion Design, School of Design and Architecture, Swinburne University of Technology

    After 37 years at the helm, fashion industry heavyweight Anna Wintour is stepping down from her position as editor-in-chief of American Vogue.

    It’s not a retirement, though, as Wintour will maintain a leadership position at global fashion and lifestyle publisher Condé Nast (the owner of Vogue and other publications, such as Vanity Fair and Glamour).

    Nonetheless, Wintour’s departure from the US edition of the magazine is a big moment for the fashion industry – one which she has single-handedly changed forever.

    Fashion mag fever

    Fashion magazines as we know them today were first formalised in the 19th century. They helped establish the “trickle down theory” of fashion, wherein trends were traditionally dictated by certain industry elites, including major magazine editors.

    In Australia, getting your hands on a monthly issue meant rare exposure to the latest European or American fashion trends.

    Vogue itself was established in New York in 1892 by businessman Arthur Baldwin Turnure. The magazine targeted the city’s elite class, initially covering various aspects of high-society life. In 1909, Vogue was acquired by Condé Nast. From then, the magazine increasingly cemented itself as a cornerstone of the fashion publishing.

    Cover of a 1921 edition of Vogue.
    Wikimedia, CC BY

    The period following the second world war particularly opened the doors to mass fashion consumerism and an expanding fashion magazine culture.

    Wintour came on as editor of Vogue in 1988, at which point the magazine became less conservative, and more culturally significant.

    Not afraid to break the mould

    Fashion publishing changed as a result of Wintour’s bold editorial choices – especially when it came to the magazine’s covers. Her choices both reflected, and dictated, shifts in fashion culture.

    Wintour’s first cover at Vogue, published in 1988, mixed couture garments (Christian Lacroix) with mainstream brands (stonewashed Guess jeans) – something which had never been done before. It was also the first time a Vogue cover had featured jeans at all – perfectly setting the scene for a long career spent pushing the magazine into new domains.

    Wintour also pioneered the centring of celebrities (rather than just models) within fashion discourse. And while she leveraged big names such as Beyonce, Madonna, Nicole Kidman, Kate Moss, Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey, she also featured rising stars as cover models – often helping propel their careers in the process.

    Wintour’s legacy at Vogue involved elevating fashion from a frivolous runway to a powerful industry, which is not scared to make a statement. Nowhere is this truer than at the Met Gala, which is held each year to celebrate the opening of a new fashion exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Costume Institute.

    The event started as a simple fundraiser for the Met in 1948, before being linked to a fashion exhibit for the first time in 1974.

    Wintour took over its organisation in 1995. Her focus on securing exclusive celebrity guests helped propel it to the prestigious event it is today.

    This year’s theme for the event was Superfine: Tailoring Black Style. In a time where the US faces great political instability, Wintour was celebrated for her role in helping elevate Black history through the event.

    Not without controversy

    However, while her cultural influence can’t be doubted, Wintour’s legacy at American Vogue is not without fault.

    Notably, her ongoing feud with animal rights organisation PETA – due to the her unwavering support for fur – has bubbled in the background since the heydays of the anti-fur movement.

    Wintour has been targeted directly by anti-fur activists, both physically (she was hit with a tofu cream pie in 2005 while leaving a Chloe show) and through numerous protests.

    This issue was never resolved. Vogue has continued to showcase and feature fur clothing, even as the social license for using animal materials starts to run out.

    Fashion continues to grow increasingly political. How magazines such as Vogue will engage with this shift remains to be seen.

    A changing media landscape

    The rise of fashion blogging in recent decades has led to a wave of fashion influencers, with throngs of followers, who are challenging the unidirectional “trickle-down” structure of the fashion industry.

    Today, social media platforms have overtaken traditional media influence both within and outside of fashion. And with this, the power of fashion editors such as Wintour is diminishing significantly.

    Many words will flow regarding Wintour’s departure as editor-in-chief, but nowhere near as many as what she oversaw at the helm of the world’s biggest fashion magazine.

    Rachel Lamarche-Beauchesne has been affiliated with the Animal Justice Party.

    Jye Marshall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Celebrities, blue jeans and couture: how Anna Wintour changed fashion over 37 years at Vogue – https://theconversation.com/celebrities-blue-jeans-and-couture-how-anna-wintour-changed-fashion-over-37-years-at-vogue-259989

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Computers tracking us, an ‘electronic collar’: Gilles Deleuze’s 1990 Postscript on the Societies of Control was eerily prescient

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Cameron Shackell, Sessional Academic, School of Information Systems, Queensland University of Technology

    Our cultural touchstones series looks at influential works.

    Gilles Deleuze was one of the most original and imaginative thinkers of postwar France. A lifelong teacher, he spent most of his career at the University of Paris VIII, influencing generations of students but largely shunning the mantle of public intellectual.

    His complex, creative books mix philosophy, literature, film and politics – not to give clear answers, but to spark new ways of thinking.

    Postscript on the Societies of Control, published 35 years ago in the countercultural L’Autre Journal is Deleuze at his most accessible and prophetic.

    Written at a time when the Cold War was ending, computers were becoming more common, and the internet was beginning to connect institutions, the essay describes the emergence of a new kind of society – one not ruled by a single stern voice but by the soft hum of networks.

    How societies work

    Postscript was written as an update to the work of Deleuze’s contemporary Michel Foucault, who had died in 1984. Deleuze called it a “postscript” not just because of its brevity (it’s only around 2,300 words in English translation) but to highlight he wasn’t refuting Foucault, just building on his work.

    Gilles Deleuze.
    Tintinades/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC-SA

    From the 18th to early 20th centuries, Foucault had argued, Western societies were “disciplinary societies”. Schools, factories, prisons and hospitals – institutions with walls, schedules, routines and clear expectations – moulded behaviour. People were trained, observed, tested and corrected as they passed from one institution to the next.



    Read more:
    ‘A dark masterpiece’: Foucault’s Discipline and Punish at 50

    But in the late 20th century, Deleuze saw something shifting. He thought the stodgy old disciplinary institutions were “in a generalized crisis” due to technological advances and a new form of capitalism that demanded more flexibility in workers and consumers.

    New systems of management and technology were starting to reshape people without sending them through traditional institutions. Deleuze wrote presciently, for example, that “perpetual training tends to replace the school, and continuous control to replace the examination”.

    In business, he saw a growing idea of “salary according to merit”, transforming work into “challenges, contests, and highly comic group sessions” – something much at odds with the old model of the standard wage and the assembly line. Traditional government institutions like hospitals and the classic factory were embracing the model of the corporation, driven always by a profit motive and the need for better human tools.

    To Deleuze, all this meant people were becoming more “free-floating” – they could be still playing socially useful roles but were being gently steered into them. This greater freedom, however, required a new system to keep everyone in line. He called this “modulation” to underline its dynamic, enveloping nature.

    Like nudging, but everywhere

    Deleuze described modulation as “a self-deforming cast that will continuously change from one moment to the other”. He meant that people were beginning to live in an environment where everything shape-shifts to encourage or discourage us in the right direction without explicitly putting up walls.

    A prime example of how modulation has since become commonplace is nudging – the use of psychological techniques, often subtle and data-driven, to shape people’s behaviour.

    Nudging didn’t really exist in 1990, but governments and tech companies use nudges all the time now. We’re nudged to eat healthier, buy, save, recycle, donate. Web sites use “dark patterns” – tricky designs that steer (or nudge) us toward certain choices. Social media feeds use algorithms to exclude us if we say the wrong thing. In fact, entire teams of behavioural scientists operate behind the scenes to manipulate many aspects of our lives.

    Nudges can be good and can save us from poor choices, but their newfound moral acceptability (sometimes called libertarian paternalism) is very much a clue that Deleuze’s control society has arrived.

    Control in your pocket

    Deleuze, who died in 1995, wrote Postscript before the advent of the smartphone, but he foresaw that an “electronic collar” would assume a central role in society. He envisaged a “computer that tracks each person’s position – licit or illicit – and effects a universal modulation.”

    Smartphones more than fit the bill. In the old disciplinary ways, they track where we go, what we search for, what we buy, how many steps we take, even how well we sleep. But if we apply Deleuze’s ideas to these phones, detailed surveillance is no longer their most important function. Our phones present and curate options.

    In effect, they shape how we see the world. When you scroll through news or social media, for instance, you’re reading about a version of the world built just for you, designed to keep you looking, clicking and reacting – and keep you very finely attuned to what is acceptable or dangerous behaviour.

    In Deleuze’s terms, this is pure modulation: not a forceful “No” but a softly spoken, “How about this?” Your phone doesn’t lock you in – it draws you in. It shapes what you see, rewards your cooperation, ignores your silence, and always keeps score. And it does this 24/7. You might unlock it hundreds of times a day. And each time it’s updated to guide your next move more precisely.

    At the same time our phones quietly turn us into a set of credentials useful for regulating physical access to workplaces, bank accounts, information: In the societies of control, writes Deleuze, “what is important is no longer either a signature or a number, but a code: the code is a password.”

    Data points not people?

    Deleuze warned that, in a control society: “Individuals have become ‘dividuals,’ and masses have become samples, data, markets, or ‘banks.’” A dividual to Deleuze is a person transformed into a set of data points and metrics.

    You are your credit rating, your search history, your likes and clicks – a different dataset to every institution. Such fragments are used to make decisions about you until they effectively replace you. In fact, for Deleuze a dividual has internalised this treatment and thinks of themselves as a net worth, a mortgage size, a car value – psychological anchors for control.

    He illustrates this point with healthcare, predicting a

    new medicine ‘without doctor or patient’ that singles out potential sick people and subjects at risk, which in no way attests to individuation.

    How many health decisions are now made for us collectively before we ever see a doctor? We should be grateful for advances in public health and epidemiology, but this has certainly impacted our individuality and how we are treated.

    Hard to detect

    An unsettling part of Deleuze’s perspective is that control doesn’t usually feel like control. It’s often dressed up as convenience, efficiency or progress. You set up internet-linked video cameras because then you can work from home. You agree to long terms and conditions because your banking app won’t work otherwise.

    One problem is there are no longer clear barriers we can rail against. As Deleuze said:

    In disciplinary societies one was always starting again (from school to the barracks, from the barracks to the factory), while in control societies one is never finished with anything.

    Control doesn’t always crush – it can enable. Digital networks bring real freedom, economic possibility, even joy. We move more easily – both mentally and geographically – than ever before. But while we move, it always inside a kind of invisible map shaped by capitalism.

    It’s no conspiracy because nobody has the whole map. So it’s difficult to work out exactly what action, if any, to take. As Deleuze concludes: “The coils of a serpent are even more complex than the burrows of a molehill.”

    So what can we do?

    Postscript doesn’t offer a political program beyond the sardonic comment that:

    Many young people strangely boast of being ‘motivated’ […] It’s up to them to discover what they’re being made to serve.

    There are ways to resist control. Some people demand more privacy or digital rights. Others opt out selectively – logging off, turning off, refusing to be nudged. Some look to art as a way of resisting its smooth grip. These acts – however small – may offer what Deleuze and his collaborator, the French psychiatrist and philosopher Félix Guattari, called lines of flight: creative ways to move not just against control, but beyond it.

    The real message of Postscript, however, is its invitation to consider a timeless perspective. Any society must have a way to make people useful. So, what kind of society do we want? What kinds of restrictions are we willing to live under? And, crucial to this current age, how explicit should control be?

    Cameron Shackell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Computers tracking us, an ‘electronic collar’: Gilles Deleuze’s 1990 Postscript on the Societies of Control was eerily prescient – https://theconversation.com/computers-tracking-us-an-electronic-collar-gilles-deleuzes-1990-postscript-on-the-societies-of-control-was-eerily-prescient-254579

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Toxic algae blooms are lasting longer than before in Lake Erie − why that’s a worry for people and pets

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gregory J. Dick, Professor of Biology, University of Michigan

    A satellite image from Aug. 13, 2024, shows an algal bloom covering approximately 320 square miles (830 square km) of Lake Erie. By Aug. 22, it had nearly doubled in size. NASA Earth Observatory

    Federal scientists released their annual forecast for Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms on June 26, 2025, and they expect a mild to moderate season. However, anyone who comes in contact with toxic algae can face health risks. And 2014, when toxins from algae blooms contaminated the water supply in Toledo, Ohio, was a moderate year, too.

    We asked Gregory J. Dick, who leads the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, a federally funded center at the University of Michigan that studies harmful algal blooms among other Great Lakes issues, why they’re such a concern.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction for harmful algal bloom severity in Lake Erie compared with past years.
    NOAA

    1. What causes harmful algal blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms are dense patches of excessive algae growth that can occur in any type of water body, including ponds, reservoirs, rivers, lakes and oceans. When you see them in freshwater, you’re typically seeing cyanobacteria, also known as blue-green algae.

    These photosynthetic bacteria have inhabited our planet for billions of years. In fact, they were responsible for oxygenating Earth’s atmosphere, which enabled plant and animal life as we know it.

    The leading source of harmful algal blooms today is nutrient runoff from fertilized farm fields.
    Michigan Sea Grant

    Algae are natural components of ecosystems, but they cause trouble when they proliferate to high densities, creating what we call blooms.

    Harmful algal blooms form scums at the water surface and produce toxins that can harm ecosystems, water quality and human health. They have been reported in all 50 U.S. states, all five Great Lakes and nearly every country around the world. Blue-green algae blooms are becoming more common in inland waters.

    The main sources of harmful algal blooms are excess nutrients in the water, typically phosphorus and nitrogen.

    Historically, these excess nutrients mainly came from sewage and phosphorus-based detergents used in laundry machines and dishwashers that ended up in waterways. U.S. environmental laws in the early 1970s addressed this by requiring sewage treatment and banning phosphorus detergents, with spectacular success.

    How pollution affected Lake Erie in the 1960s, before clean water regulations.

    Today, agriculture is the main source of excess nutrients from chemical fertilizer or manure applied to farm fields to grow crops. Rainstorms wash these nutrients into streams and rivers that deliver them to lakes and coastal areas, where they fertilize algal blooms. In the U.S., most of these nutrients come from industrial-scale corn production, which is largely used as animal feed or to produce ethanol for gasoline.

    Climate change also exacerbates the problem in two ways. First, cyanobacteria grow faster at higher temperatures. Second, climate-driven increases in precipitation, especially large storms, cause more nutrient runoff that has led to record-setting blooms.

    2. What does your team’s DNA testing tell us about Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms contain a mixture of cyanobacterial species that can produce an array of different toxins, many of which are still being discovered.

    When my colleagues and I recently sequenced DNA from Lake Erie water, we found new types of microcystins, the notorious toxins that were responsible for contaminating Toledo’s drinking water supply in 2014.

    These novel molecules cannot be detected with traditional methods and show some signs of causing toxicity, though further studies are needed to confirm their human health effects.

    Blue-green algae blooms in freshwater, like this one near Toledo in 2014, can be harmful to humans, causing gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, fever and skin irritation. They can be lethal for pets.
    Ty Wright for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    We also found organisms responsible for producing saxitoxin, a potent neurotoxin that is well known for causing paralytic shellfish poisoning on the Pacific Coast of North America and elsewhere.

    Saxitoxins have been detected at low concentrations in the Great Lakes for some time, but the recent discovery of hot spots of genes that make the toxin makes them an emerging concern.

    Our research suggests warmer water temperatures could boost its production, which raises concerns that saxitoxin will become more prevalent with climate change. However, the controls on toxin production are complex, and more research is needed to test this hypothesis. Federal monitoring programs are essential for tracking and understanding emerging threats.

    3. Should people worry about these blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms are unsightly and smelly, making them a concern for recreation, property values and businesses. They can disrupt food webs and harm aquatic life, though a recent study suggested that their effects on the Lake Erie food web so far are not substantial.

    But the biggest impact is from the toxins these algae produce that are harmful to humans and lethal to pets.

    The toxins can cause acute health problems such as gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, fever and skin irritation. Dogs can die from ingesting lake water with harmful algal blooms. Emerging science suggests that long-term exposure to harmful algal blooms, for example over months or years, can cause or exacerbate chronic respiratory, cardiovascular and gastrointestinal problems and may be linked to liver cancers, kidney disease and neurological issues.

    The water intake system for the city of Toledo, Ohio, is surrounded by an algae bloom in 2014. Toxic algae got into the water system, resulting in residents being warned not to touch or drink their tap water for three days.
    AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari

    In addition to exposure through direct ingestion or skin contact, recent research also indicates that inhaling toxins that get into the air may harm health, raising concerns for coastal residents and boaters, but more research is needed to understand the risks.

    The Toledo drinking water crisis of 2014 illustrated the vast potential for algal blooms to cause harm in the Great Lakes. Toxins infiltrated the drinking water system and were detected in processed municipal water, resulting in a three-day “do not drink” advisory. The episode affected residents, hospitals and businesses, and it ultimately cost the city an estimated US$65 million.

    4. Blooms seem to be starting earlier in the year and lasting longer – why is that happening?

    Warmer waters are extending the duration of the blooms.

    In 2025, NOAA detected these toxins in Lake Erie on April 28, earlier than ever before. The 2022 bloom in Lake Erie persisted into November, which is rare if not unprecedented.

    Scientific studies of western Lake Erie show that the potential cyanobacterial growth rate has increased by up to 30% and the length of the bloom season has expanded by up to a month from 1995 to 2022, especially in warmer, shallow waters. These results are consistent with our understanding of cyanobacterial physiology: Blooms like it hot – cyanobacteria grow faster at higher temperatures.

    5. What can be done to reduce the likelihood of algal blooms in the future?

    The best and perhaps only hope of reducing the size and occurrence of harmful algal blooms is to reduce the amount of nutrients reaching the Great Lakes.

    In Lake Erie, where nutrients come primarily from agriculture, that means improving agricultural practices and restoring wetlands to reduce the amount of nutrients flowing off of farm fields and into the lake. Early indications suggest that Ohio’s H2Ohio program, which works with farmers to reduce runoff, is making some gains in this regard, but future funding for H2Ohio is uncertain.

    In places like Lake Superior, where harmful algal blooms appear to be driven by climate change, the solution likely requires halting and reversing the rapid human-driven increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

    Gregory J. Dick receives funding for harmful algal bloom research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the United States Geological Survey, and the National Institutes for Health. He serves on the Science Advisory Council for the Environmental Law and Policy Center.

    – ref. Toxic algae blooms are lasting longer than before in Lake Erie − why that’s a worry for people and pets – https://theconversation.com/toxic-algae-blooms-are-lasting-longer-than-before-in-lake-erie-why-thats-a-worry-for-people-and-pets-259954

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why flattering Donald Trump could be dangerous

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email newsletter. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

    Once again Donald Trump and his senior team are unhappy with their press coverage. Here’s the US president, fresh from his triumph in The Hague, having persuaded Nato’s leaders to open their wallets and agree to up their defence spending to 5% of GDP (apart from Spain, that is, which can expect to hear of triple-digit tariffs coming its way in the near future) – and do the media focus on Trump’s tour de force? Do they hell. Instead they focus on whether his strikes against Iran had been as successful as he claimed.

    As you can imagine, this would have been irksome in the extreme for the president, who might reasonably have expected that the story of the day would be his victory in getting pledges from virtually all Nato’s members to pull their weight in terms of their own defence. Certainly the Nato secretary-general, Mark Rutte, could appreciate the scale of his achievement. Even before the summit, Rutte was talking it up.

    “Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe, and the world,” he wrote in a message to Trump as the US president prepared to fly to The Netherlands. “You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.”

    The fact that Trump promptly posted this message to his TruthSocial website suggests how important praise is to the the US president. It’s something that many world leaders (including Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin who have become past-masters at pouring honey in the president’s ear) have recognised and are willing to use as a diplomatic tool when dealing with the man Rutte calls “Daddy”.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    But while flattery as a tactic seems to be effective with the US president, Andrew Gawthorpe, a political historian from Leiden University, cautions that flattery, appeasement and compliance are a flawed approach when dealing with a man like Trump. For a start, he writes it means that not much actually gets done and that problems are often merely avoided rather than solved.

    But more worryingly, simply capitulating in the face of Trumpian pressure or ire risks giving this US president the idea that he can do anything he wants. “When his targets roll over, it sends a message to others that Trump is unstoppable and resistance is futile,” writes Gawthorpe. It encourages not just the next presidential abuse of power, but also the next surrender from its victims.



    Read more:
    Why bending over backwards to agree with Donald Trump is a perilous strategy

    We got a taste of what the US president’s anger at being defied sounds like as he prepared to fly to The Netherlands for the Nato summit. Asked about the ceasefire he had negotiated between Israel and Iran, he lashed out at both countries who had breached the peace within hours of agreeing to stop firing missiles at each other. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” he told reporters as he walked to the presidential helicopter.

    Psychologist Geoff Beattie, of Edge Hill University, believes this was no accidental verbal slip. Trump wanted to let the world know how angry he was and chose to use the “f-bomb” as a way of showing it. Beattie looks at what this can tell us about the character of the US president – and how it might reflect a tendency to make rapid decisions based on emotional reactions.



    Read more:
    Trump’s f-bomb: a psychologist explains why the president makes fast and furious statements

    And so to Nato

    What was remarkable about the Nato summit was that it was condensed to one fairly short session which focused solely on the issue of Nato members’ defence budgets. Usually there’s a much broader agenda. Over the past couple of years the issue of Ukraine has been fairly high on the list, but this time – perhaps to avoid any potential divisions – it was relegated to a side issue.

    Perhaps the biggest success for Nato, writes Stefan Wolff, is that they managed to get Trump to the summit and keep him in the room. After all, less than a fortnight previously he walked out of the G7 leaders’ meeting in Canada a day early before authorising the bombing raids on Iran’s nuclear installations (of which more later).

    Wolff, an expert in international security from the University of Birmingham (and a regular contributor to this newsletter) believes that the non-US members realised they had little choice but to comply – or at least to be seen to be complying. There’s a significant capability deficit: “European states also lack most of the so-called critical enablers, the military hardware and technology required to prevail in a potential war with Russia.”

    So keeping the US president onside – and inside Nato with a remaining commitment to America’s article 5 mutual defence pledge – was top of the list this year and something they appear to have pulled off.



    Read more:
    At June’s Nato summit, just keeping Donald Trump in the room will be seen as a victory

    The fact is, writes Andrew Corbett, a defence expert at King’s College London, that Europe and the US have different enemies these days. Europe is still focused on the foe it faced across the Iron Curtain after 1945, against which Nato was designed as a defensive bulwark.

    The US is now far more focused on the threat from China. This means it will increasingly shift the bulk of its naval assets to the Pacific (although the Middle East seems to be delaying this shift at present). This inevitably means downgrading its presence in Europe, something of which European leaders are all-too aware.

    The importance of continuing US involvement in European defence via Nato was underlined, as Corbett highlights, by a frisson of unease when it appeared that the US president might be preparing to reinterpret article 5, which requires that members come to the aid of another member if they are attacked.

    So there was relief all round when the US president reaffirmed America’s commitment to the principle of collective defence. But one feels Rutte will need to use all his diplomatic wiles to keep things that way.



    Read more:
    How Nato summit shows Europe and US no longer have a common enemy

    The trouble with Iran

    Rutte, who has the nickname “Trump whisperer”, is clever enough to know that emollient words will have been just what the US president was looking for given the stress of the past couple of weeks. The decision to launch strikes against Iran was controversial even within his own base as we noted last week.

    But by directly engaging in hostility against Iran, Trump risked embroiling the US in the “forever war” that he always promised his supporters he would avoid. The move was freighted with risk. Nobody knew how Iran might retaliate or how the situation could escalate. There was (and remains) the chance that an angry Iran could try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is one of the world’s most important waterways though which 20% of the world’s oil transits. This would have huge ramifications for the global economy, seriously damaging Iran’s Gulf neighbours and angering China, which gets much of its oil from the region.



    Read more:
    Iran is considering closing the strait of Hormuz – why this would be a major escalation

    For now it appears that Iran has contented itself with performative strikes against US bases in Iraq and Qatar, having given advance warning. This token retaliation was made shortly before the ceasefire was negotiated. Despite a defiant message from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran is reported to be making noises about coming to the negotiating table. A deal to restore calm to the region would be an achievement indeed.

    But legal questions remain about the US decision to launch strikes. For a start, Article 2(4) of the UN charter strictly forbids the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state, or “in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations”.

    But, as Caleb Wheeler, an expert in international law from the University of Cardiff writes, it’s a rule that has rarely been either observed or enforced. He points out that the Korean War, when following a resolution of the UN security council, a number of countries went to war with North Korea to defend its southern neighbour which had been attacked in violation of article 2(4), was the high watermark of compliance with the UN on conflict.

    In most other international conflicts since, the use of vetoes by one or another of the permanent members of the security council has effectively prevented the UN acting the way it was supposed to.

    Now, writes Wheeler, there can be little doubt the US has violated article 2(4) by bombing Iran, particularly as Trump expressed his opinion that a regime change might be appropriate. Given that the US is one of the leading lights of the UN, Wheeler thinks you could reasonably expect a degree of condemnation from other world leaders. He worries that the absence of criticism could seriously lower the bar for aggression in the future.



    Read more:
    Bombing Iran: has the UN charter failed?

    And if, as remains unclear at present, Iran’s nuclear programme was not set back by years, as the US claims, but merely by months, then you could expect Tehran to redouble its efforts to acquire a bomb. The Islamic Republic will be mindful of the fact that there has been little talk of bombing North Korea in recent years, for example. Possession of a nuclear deterrent means exactly what it says.

    So, conclude David Dunn and Nicholas Wheeler, these strikes which were conducted on what they feel was the false premise of defence against an “imminent” threat from a nuclear Iran, could actually have the opposite effect of encouraging Iran to rapidly develop its own bomb.



    Read more:
    US attack on Iran lacks legal justification and could lead to more nuclear proliferation

    Elon Musk’s geopolitical eye in the sky

    After Israel began its latest campaign of airstrikes against Iran earlier this month, the government moved to restrict internet access around the country to discourage criticism of the regime and make it difficult for protesters to organise. But in June 14 in response to a plea over social media, Elon Musk announced, appropriately on X, that he would open up access to his Starlink satellite system.

    Joscha Abels, a political scientist at the University of Tübingen, recalls that Starlink became very popular in Iran during the protests that followed the killing of Mahsa Amini in 2022, and which really rocked the regime to its core. He also points to the use of Starlink by Ukraine as a vital communications tool in its defence against Russia over the past three years.

    But Abels warns that what is given is also too easily switched off, as Musk did in Ukraine in 2023. At the time a senior Starlink executive warned that the tool was “never intended to be weaponized”. The concern is that such an important tool, which can make or break a regime or cripple a country’s defence, could be a risk in the hands of a private individual.



    Read more:
    In the sky over Iran, Elon Musk and Starlink step into geopolitics – not for the first time

    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get updates directly in your inbox.

    – ref. Why flattering Donald Trump could be dangerous – https://theconversation.com/why-flattering-donald-trump-could-be-dangerous-259940

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why flattering Donald Trump could be dangerous

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email newsletter. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

    Once again Donald Trump and his senior team are unhappy with their press coverage. Here’s the US president, fresh from his triumph in The Hague, having persuaded Nato’s leaders to open their wallets and agree to up their defence spending to 5% of GDP (apart from Spain, that is, which can expect to hear of triple-digit tariffs coming its way in the near future) – and do the media focus on Trump’s tour de force? Do they hell. Instead they focus on whether his strikes against Iran had been as successful as he claimed.

    As you can imagine, this would have been irksome in the extreme for the president, who might reasonably have expected that the story of the day would be his victory in getting pledges from virtually all Nato’s members to pull their weight in terms of their own defence. Certainly the Nato secretary-general, Mark Rutte, could appreciate the scale of his achievement. Even before the summit, Rutte was talking it up.

    “Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe, and the world,” he wrote in a message to Trump as the US president prepared to fly to The Netherlands. “You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.”

    The fact that Trump promptly posted this message to his TruthSocial website suggests how important praise is to the the US president. It’s something that many world leaders (including Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin who have become past-masters at pouring honey in the president’s ear) have recognised and are willing to use as a diplomatic tool when dealing with the man Rutte calls “Daddy”.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    But while flattery as a tactic seems to be effective with the US president, Andrew Gawthorpe, a political historian from Leiden University, cautions that flattery, appeasement and compliance are a flawed approach when dealing with a man like Trump. For a start, he writes it means that not much actually gets done and that problems are often merely avoided rather than solved.

    But more worryingly, simply capitulating in the face of Trumpian pressure or ire risks giving this US president the idea that he can do anything he wants. “When his targets roll over, it sends a message to others that Trump is unstoppable and resistance is futile,” writes Gawthorpe. It encourages not just the next presidential abuse of power, but also the next surrender from its victims.



    Read more:
    Why bending over backwards to agree with Donald Trump is a perilous strategy

    We got a taste of what the US president’s anger at being defied sounds like as he prepared to fly to The Netherlands for the Nato summit. Asked about the ceasefire he had negotiated between Israel and Iran, he lashed out at both countries who had breached the peace within hours of agreeing to stop firing missiles at each other. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” he told reporters as he walked to the presidential helicopter.

    Psychologist Geoff Beattie, of Edge Hill University, believes this was no accidental verbal slip. Trump wanted to let the world know how angry he was and chose to use the “f-bomb” as a way of showing it. Beattie looks at what this can tell us about the character of the US president – and how it might reflect a tendency to make rapid decisions based on emotional reactions.



    Read more:
    Trump’s f-bomb: a psychologist explains why the president makes fast and furious statements

    And so to Nato

    What was remarkable about the Nato summit was that it was condensed to one fairly short session which focused solely on the issue of Nato members’ defence budgets. Usually there’s a much broader agenda. Over the past couple of years the issue of Ukraine has been fairly high on the list, but this time – perhaps to avoid any potential divisions – it was relegated to a side issue.

    Perhaps the biggest success for Nato, writes Stefan Wolff, is that they managed to get Trump to the summit and keep him in the room. After all, less than a fortnight previously he walked out of the G7 leaders’ meeting in Canada a day early before authorising the bombing raids on Iran’s nuclear installations (of which more later).

    Wolff, an expert in international security from the University of Birmingham (and a regular contributor to this newsletter) believes that the non-US members realised they had little choice but to comply – or at least to be seen to be complying. There’s a significant capability deficit: “European states also lack most of the so-called critical enablers, the military hardware and technology required to prevail in a potential war with Russia.”

    So keeping the US president onside – and inside Nato with a remaining commitment to America’s article 5 mutual defence pledge – was top of the list this year and something they appear to have pulled off.



    Read more:
    At June’s Nato summit, just keeping Donald Trump in the room will be seen as a victory

    The fact is, writes Andrew Corbett, a defence expert at King’s College London, that Europe and the US have different enemies these days. Europe is still focused on the foe it faced across the Iron Curtain after 1945, against which Nato was designed as a defensive bulwark.

    The US is now far more focused on the threat from China. This means it will increasingly shift the bulk of its naval assets to the Pacific (although the Middle East seems to be delaying this shift at present). This inevitably means downgrading its presence in Europe, something of which European leaders are all-too aware.

    The importance of continuing US involvement in European defence via Nato was underlined, as Corbett highlights, by a frisson of unease when it appeared that the US president might be preparing to reinterpret article 5, which requires that members come to the aid of another member if they are attacked.

    So there was relief all round when the US president reaffirmed America’s commitment to the principle of collective defence. But one feels Rutte will need to use all his diplomatic wiles to keep things that way.



    Read more:
    How Nato summit shows Europe and US no longer have a common enemy

    The trouble with Iran

    Rutte, who has the nickname “Trump whisperer”, is clever enough to know that emollient words will have been just what the US president was looking for given the stress of the past couple of weeks. The decision to launch strikes against Iran was controversial even within his own base as we noted last week.

    But by directly engaging in hostility against Iran, Trump risked embroiling the US in the “forever war” that he always promised his supporters he would avoid. The move was freighted with risk. Nobody knew how Iran might retaliate or how the situation could escalate. There was (and remains) the chance that an angry Iran could try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is one of the world’s most important waterways though which 20% of the world’s oil transits. This would have huge ramifications for the global economy, seriously damaging Iran’s Gulf neighbours and angering China, which gets much of its oil from the region.



    Read more:
    Iran is considering closing the strait of Hormuz – why this would be a major escalation

    For now it appears that Iran has contented itself with performative strikes against US bases in Iraq and Qatar, having given advance warning. This token retaliation was made shortly before the ceasefire was negotiated. Despite a defiant message from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran is reported to be making noises about coming to the negotiating table. A deal to restore calm to the region would be an achievement indeed.

    But legal questions remain about the US decision to launch strikes. For a start, Article 2(4) of the UN charter strictly forbids the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state, or “in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations”.

    But, as Caleb Wheeler, an expert in international law from the University of Cardiff writes, it’s a rule that has rarely been either observed or enforced. He points out that the Korean War, when following a resolution of the UN security council, a number of countries went to war with North Korea to defend its southern neighbour which had been attacked in violation of article 2(4), was the high watermark of compliance with the UN on conflict.

    In most other international conflicts since, the use of vetoes by one or another of the permanent members of the security council has effectively prevented the UN acting the way it was supposed to.

    Now, writes Wheeler, there can be little doubt the US has violated article 2(4) by bombing Iran, particularly as Trump expressed his opinion that a regime change might be appropriate. Given that the US is one of the leading lights of the UN, Wheeler thinks you could reasonably expect a degree of condemnation from other world leaders. He worries that the absence of criticism could seriously lower the bar for aggression in the future.



    Read more:
    Bombing Iran: has the UN charter failed?

    And if, as remains unclear at present, Iran’s nuclear programme was not set back by years, as the US claims, but merely by months, then you could expect Tehran to redouble its efforts to acquire a bomb. The Islamic Republic will be mindful of the fact that there has been little talk of bombing North Korea in recent years, for example. Possession of a nuclear deterrent means exactly what it says.

    So, conclude David Dunn and Nicholas Wheeler, these strikes which were conducted on what they feel was the false premise of defence against an “imminent” threat from a nuclear Iran, could actually have the opposite effect of encouraging Iran to rapidly develop its own bomb.



    Read more:
    US attack on Iran lacks legal justification and could lead to more nuclear proliferation

    Elon Musk’s geopolitical eye in the sky

    After Israel began its latest campaign of airstrikes against Iran earlier this month, the government moved to restrict internet access around the country to discourage criticism of the regime and make it difficult for protesters to organise. But in June 14 in response to a plea over social media, Elon Musk announced, appropriately on X, that he would open up access to his Starlink satellite system.

    Joscha Abels, a political scientist at the University of Tübingen, recalls that Starlink became very popular in Iran during the protests that followed the killing of Mahsa Amini in 2022, and which really rocked the regime to its core. He also points to the use of Starlink by Ukraine as a vital communications tool in its defence against Russia over the past three years.

    But Abels warns that what is given is also too easily switched off, as Musk did in Ukraine in 2023. At the time a senior Starlink executive warned that the tool was “never intended to be weaponized”. The concern is that such an important tool, which can make or break a regime or cripple a country’s defence, could be a risk in the hands of a private individual.



    Read more:
    In the sky over Iran, Elon Musk and Starlink step into geopolitics – not for the first time

    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get updates directly in your inbox.

    – ref. Why flattering Donald Trump could be dangerous – https://theconversation.com/why-flattering-donald-trump-could-be-dangerous-259940

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran were facilitated by the Russia-Ukraine war

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    The American intervention in Iran is being touted as an outstanding success by President Donald Trump. At the very least, Trump’s decision to attack Iran facilitated a ceasefire as it created angst in Gulf states about being caught in the crossfire after Iran symbolically attacked an American air base, Al Udeid, in Qatar.

    The long-term implications and viability of the ceasefire are open for debate.

    If Iran preserved its nuclear stockpile of fissile material, it has more incentive to develop a nuclear weapon, despite the damage Israel and the United States did to its production facilities. This is especially true if the damage to facilities like Fordow was less than Trump is proclaiming.

    Russian-Iranian relations

    While the future of Iran’s nuclear weapons capacity remains unknown, what is clear is that the U.S. and Israel were able to strike at Iran in large part due to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

    In the modern era, relations between Russia and Iran have frequently been tense. Russia and the Soviet Union’s interests in the region have provoked several conflicts, most notably during the 1940s when the Soviets encouraged the formation of the People’s Republic of Azerbaijan on Iranian soil.

    The shah of Iran’s close relationship with the U.S. further discouraged a strong relationship between Moscow and Tehran.

    The shah’s fall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, allowed for a working relationship to develop between Iran and Russia. They’re still rivals but nevertheless work together when it suits their best interests. Russian and Iranian co-operation on the Syrian civil war is an example.

    Furthermore, both Iran and Russia have provided diplomatic support for each other. Russia’s insertion into the Iran nuclear deal framework in 2015 benefited both parties. It provided economic benefits to Russia, and it also allowed Iran to develop its nuclear ambitions.

    When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Iran was one of the few countries that didn’t oppose the move. It abstained from voting on a United Nations resolution in March 2022 condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which amounted to tacit support.

    More importantly, Iran’s own success in evading oil sanctions helped Russia do the same, allowing the Russians to maintain their war effort in Ukraine.

    The connections between Russia and Iran, however, goes beyond the political and economic.

    Drones and other weapons

    Iran has played a pivotal role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. One of Ukraine’s initial advantages was in drone technology, including the drone expertise of its allies. The Russian military, which had not fully embraced the implications of drone technology, was at a severe disadvantage.

    Iran, however, had embraced the role of drones in warfare and both provided drones to Russia and helped the Russians develop their own domestic production.

    Iran, at an arms disadvantage against Israel and the U.S., sought to use drones to offset this weakness. The Iranians, in fact, pioneered the use of drones, most notably the Shahed 131 and 136.



    Read more:
    How Russian and Iranian drone strikes further dehumanize warfare

    Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, the flow of weapons between Russia and Iran was more one-sided. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran has been a vital market for Russian military technology. Russian leaders have viewed the sale of weapons to Iran as both a way of supporting the Russian economy and to counter American interests in the Middle East.

    So what’s all this have to do with Ukraine?

    Iran left open to bombardment

    The most crucial weapon provided by Russia to Iran is arguably the S-300, an advanced surface-to-air missile systems.

    Israel’s air dominance and its ability to overcome Iranian air defences in the past meant that the S-300 was a vital piece of technology for Iran. Israeli officials recognized the S-300’s importance to countering their operations when they, for several years, used political pressure to block S-300 sales to Iran.

    In October 2024, Israel likely breached the software that operates the S-300, disabling the system’s radar. This breach allowed Israel to eliminate Iran’s S-300s, and left Iran vulnerable to Israeli and American air attacks.

    Iran has been unable to acquire replacements for one simple reason: Russia needs the weapon systems in Ukraine. Ukraine has prioritized eliminating Russian air defences like the S-300.

    The enduring Ukraine-Russia conflict has served as a bleeding ulcer for the Russian armaments industry. Russian military hardware has been destroyed at such a rate that it’s delayed Russia’s sale of weapons to key markets, including Iran and India.

    The situation has caused Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to pivot away from Russian military technology — a key feature in Russian-Indian relations — for domestic arms backed by western technology.

    Iran, meantime, has been left open to aerial bombardment by Israel and the U.S.

    Although Iran reportedly possesses the even more advanced S-400, this hasn’t been confirmed and Iran has denied it.

    Ukraine advances U.S. interests

    Rightly or wrongly, the U.S. government identified bombing Iran alongside Israel as being in its national interest. But it’s unlikely American involvement would have been possible without Ukraine draining Russian resources.

    The problem is that the current U.S. administration views the world and its events in an isolated manner. But in a globalized world, few events remain in isolation.

    The U.S. government may argue that supporting Ukraine is not in American interests, but Ukraine’s ongoing fight against Russia is actually assisting Americans elsewhere — most notably, in Iran.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran were facilitated by the Russia-Ukraine war – https://theconversation.com/how-israeli-and-u-s-strikes-against-iran-were-facilitated-by-the-russia-ukraine-war-259845

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why bending over backwards to agree with Donald Trump is a perilous strategy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Gawthorpe, Lecturer in History and International Studies, Leiden University

    Donald Trump is a difficult figure to deal with, both for foreign leaders and figures closer to home who find themselves in his crosshairs. The US president is unpredictable, sensitive and willing to break the rules to get his way.

    But in Trump’s second term, a variety of different leaders and institutions seem to have settled on a way to handle him. The key, they seem to think, is flattery. The most obvious example came at the recently concluded Nato summit in The Hague, Netherlands, where world leaders got together to discuss the future of the alliance.

    Previous summits with Trump have descended into recrimination and backbiting. The organisers were determined to avoid a repeat – and decided the best way to do it was to make Trump feel really, really good about himself.

    Even before the summit began, Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte had texted Trump to thank him for his “decisive action” in bombing Iran. This, he said, was something “no one else dared to do”.

    Then, when discussing Trump’s role in ending the war between Israel and Iran, Rutte referred to Trump as “daddy” – a name the White House has already transformed into a meme.

    The summit itself was light on the sort of contentious and detailed policy discussions that have historically bored and angered Trump.

    Instead, it was reduced to a series of photo opportunities and speeches in which other leaders lavished praise on Trump. Lithuania’s president, Gitanas Nausėda, even suggested the alliance ought to copy Trump’s political movement by adopting the phrase “make Nato great again”.

    Nato leaders aren’t the only ones trying this trick. British prime minister Keir Starmer has had a go at it too. Starmer has made sure that Trump will be the first US president to make a second state visit to the UK. He described the honour in Trump-like terms: “This has never happened before. It’s so incredible. It will be historic.”

    After Trump announced global trade tariffs earlier in the year, Starmer was the first leader to give Trump a much-needed victory by reaching a framework trade agreement. But it worked both ways, with Starmer able to land a political victory too.

    In his first term, flattery was also seen as a tool to be used to get Trump onside. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky tried it in phone conversations with the US president, calling him a “great teacher” from whom he learned “skills and knowledge”.

    Flattery and compliance clearly have their uses. Trump is extremely sensitive to criticism and susceptible to praise, however hyperbolic and transparent it might be. Buttering him up may be an effective way to get him to back off.

    But it doesn’t achieve much else. At the Nato summit, an opportunity was missed to make progress on issues of real importance, such as how to better support Ukraine in its war against Russia or to better coordinate European defence spending.

    A summit dedicated to the sole aim of making Trump feel good is one with very limited aims indeed. All it does is push the difficult decisions forward for another day.

    A missed opportunity

    Individual decisions to bow down to Trump also mean missing the opportunity to mount collective resistance. One country might not be able to stand up to the president, but the odds of doing so would be greatly improved if leaders banded together.

    For example, Trump’s trade tariffs will damage the US economy as well as those of its trading partners. That is especially the case if those partners impose tariffs of their own on US goods.

    If each country instead follows Britain’s lead in the hope of getting the best deal for itself, they will have missed the opportunity to force the president to feel some discomfort of his own – and possibly change course.

    But perhaps the greatest danger of flattering Trump is that it teaches him that he can get away with doing pretty much whatever he likes. For a president who has threatened to annex the territory of Nato allies Denmark and Canada to nevertheless be feted at a Nato summit sends a message of impunity.

    That’s a dangerous lesson for Trump to learn. He has spent much of his second term undermining democratic and liberal norms at home and key tenets of US foreign policy abroad, such as hostility to Russia. He is attempting to undermine all traditional sources of authority and expertise and instead make the world dance to his own tune.

    Given the expansive scope of his aims, which many experts already think is leading to a constitutional crisis that threatens democracy, the willingness to suck up to Trump normalises him in a menacing way.

    When his targets roll over, it sends a message to others that Trump is unstoppable and resistance is futile. It encourages not just the next presidential abuse of power, but also the next surrender from those he chooses to attack.

    Perhaps the best that can be said for this strategy is that maybe it will appease Trump enough to prevent him from doing too much actual harm. But when dealing with such an unpredictable and vindictive president, that is a thin reed of hope.

    It is much more likely to encourage him to press on – until the harm becomes too severe to ignore.

    Andrew Gawthorpe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why bending over backwards to agree with Donald Trump is a perilous strategy – https://theconversation.com/why-bending-over-backwards-to-agree-with-donald-trump-is-a-perilous-strategy-259936

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How Macau’s second world war experience shaped the territory

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helena F. S. Lopes, Lecturer in Modern Asian History, Cardiff University

    Macau’s giant casinos and malls have earned the territory its nickname: the ‘Las Vegas of the east’. Sanga Park / Shutterstock

    This year marks the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war, a conflict that left few corners of the globe untouched. In east Asia, the small Portuguese-administrated territory of Macau in southern China stood out as a rare neutral territory. But, despite its neutrality, Macau could not escape the war’s far-reaching impact.

    In fact, Macau saw its population treble in the period between 1937 and the end of the second world war, reaching around half a million people. The newcomers, most of whom had fled the Japanese occupation of China, exceeded the existing residents and influenced all facets of life in Macau.

    Some went on to shape the territory well beyond the end of the second world war, helping Macau earn its later status as one of the leading gambling hubs in the world. These people included the late Stanley Ho, the “casino tycoon” in Macau and one of the key architects of its post-war economy.

    In his testimony for the 1999 book, Macao Remembers, Ho noted how Macau’s wartime atmosphere had inspired him. “Macao was tiny, and yet a bit like Casablanca – all the secret intelligence, the murders, the gambling – it was a very exciting place”, he said.

    Ho was referring to the fictional version of the French-controlled wartime city of Casablanca in the 1942 Hollywood film, also called Casablanca. As a neutral enclave, Macau was a site of multinational refuge, smuggling of goods and people, espionage, danger and opportunities.

    Macau is located on the south coast of China, across the Pearl River estuary from Hong Kong.
    Sémhur / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC-ND

    Site of refuge

    Japan’s invasion of China began in the 1930s. As Japanese forces took control of most of the eastern coast from 1937 onward, the Chinese nationalist government moved inland to resist from its relocated capitals, first Wuhan and then Chongqing. By the end of 1940, the most important political, economic, educational and cultural urban centres in China had been occupied.

    Surrounded by occupied areas, territories under foreign rule in China such as the Shanghai foreign concessions, Macau and Hong Kong became “lone islands”. Their neutral status attracted many thousands of refugees, resistance activists and relocated businesses. Lone islands became supply lifelines for the Chinese resistance and propaganda battlegrounds for opposing sides.

    They experienced periods of economic boom fuelled by the influx of refugees. And they were prime locations for the transfer of information and funds, as well as intelligence collection. Lone islands were also sites of humanitarian relief, connected to diaspora networks and organisations designed to support the Chinese war effort.

    By the end of 1941, these spaces of neutrality were disappearing. The Shanghai foreign concessions were taken over by Japan and later handed over to a Chinese collaborationist administration, and the British colony of Hong Kong was occupied and placed under Japanese military rule. French-ruled Guangzhouwan, also in south China, was under de facto Japanese control by 1943.

    Macau, which remained neutral throughout the war, stood as the last lone island – if always subject to Japanese influence. Macau’s neutrality drew many from opposing camps.

    In the late 1930s, most refugees to Macau had come from Shanghai and Guangdong province. The occupation of Hong Kong in late 1941 then brought another wave of displaced persons to Macau.

    Stanley Ho was among the refugees who arrived in Macau from the neighbouring British colony. He joined his uncle Robert Ho Tung, a renowned businessman who also relocated to Macau during the occupation of Hong Kong.

    According to Ho’s own accounts, his wartime activities were the foundation of a fortune. Several other figures who would become important economic players in Macau’s post-war economy, such as businessman Ho Yin, also cut their teeth during the second world war’s climate of contingency and opportunity.

    Working for the Macau Co-operative Company, established by the Japanese to manage trade between Japan and the government in Macau, Ho was involved in bartering materials in exchange for food supplies with Japanese interlocutors. He also had an English-Japanese language exchange with the Japanese intelligence chief in Macau, Colonel Sawa.

    Through these activities, Ho made important contacts among the different communities who found themselves in Macau during the war. This included powerful intermediaries such as Pedro José Lobo, the head of the economic services in Macau. These connections exposed Ho to the popularity of gambling in Macau and the potential to take it to a different level.

    Gambling had been legal in Macau since the mid-19th century. But it was during the war that we would see the origins of the casino-hotel model that is now prevalent in the territory.

    The leading hotels of 1940s Macau, such as Hotel Central and Grande Hotel Kuoc Chai, offered employment to refugee musicians and dancers and were sites of entertainment for those with funds to spend.

    Hotel Central, one of the leading hotels in 1940s Macau.
    stefangde / Shutterstock

    After the end of the second world war, Ho set up a company called Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau (STDM) with partners including Henry Fok, Teddy Yip and Yip Hon. These were businessmen with links to Hong Kong, mainland China and Indonesia.

    In 1962, the same year STDM was founded, it earned the exclusive licence to run casinos in Macau, replacing pre-existing magnates who were more prominent during the second world war.

    One of the key innovations brought by their company’s casinos was the popularisation of western-style games. They were also involved in philanthropic activities, much like the wartime gambling tycoons had been, with Macau again seeing the arrival of many destitute displaced persons during the cold war.

    Gambling has been liberalised in Macau since the early 2000s, and the territory has now surpassed Las Vegas to become the largest casino market in the world.

    Helena F. S. Lopes received doctoral and postdoctoral research funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council, the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology and the Leverhulme Trust for projects relating to Macau during the Second World War and the post-war period.

    – ref. How Macau’s second world war experience shaped the territory – https://theconversation.com/how-macaus-second-world-war-experience-shaped-the-territory-246650

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Canada needs a national AI literacy strategy to help students navigate AI

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Mohammed Estaiteyeh, Assistant Professor of Digital Pedagogies and Technology Literacies, Faculty of Education, Brock University

    AI literacy equips learners to understand and navigate the pervasive influence of AI in their daily lives. (Shutterstock)

    With students’ use of artificial intelligence (AI) tools on the rise in Canada and globally, reports of cheating and unethical behaviors are making headlines.

    One recent study indicates that 78 per cent of Canadian students have used generative AI to help with assignments or study tasks. In China, authorities have even shut down AI apps during nationwide exams to prevent cheating.

    Students seem unprepared to navigate this new world and educators are unsure how to handle it. This is a problem Canada and other countries can’t afford to ignore.

    The support structures and policies to guide students’ and educators’ responsible use of AI are often insufficient in Canadian schools. In a recent study, Canada ranked 44th in AI training and literacy out of 47 countries, and 28th among 30 advanced economies. Despite growing reliance on these technologies at homes and in the classrooms, Canada lacks a unified AI literacy strategy in K-12 education.

    Without co-ordinated action, this gap threatens to widen existing inequalities and leave both learners and educators vulnerable. Canadian schools need a national AI literacy strategy that provides a framework for teaching students about AI tools and how to use them responsibly.

    What is AI literacy?

    AI literacy is defined as:

    “An individual’s ability to clearly explain how AI technologies work and impact society, as well as to use them in an ethical and responsible manner and to effectively communicate and collaborate with them in any setting.”

    Acknowledging its importance, scholars and international organizations have been developing AI literacy frameworks. UNESCO has developed AI competency frameworks for students and teachers, highlighting key capabilities they should acquire to navigate AI implications.

    More recently, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the European Commission released their joint draft AI Literacy Framework for primary and secondary education. This framework defines AI literacy as the technical knowledge, durable skills and future-ready attitudes required to thrive in a world influenced by AI.

    The framework aims to empower learners to engage with, create with, manage and design AI, while critically evaluating its benefits, risks and ethical implications.

    AI-literate students are better able to develop an ethical and human-centred mindset as they learn to consider AI’s social and environmental impacts.
    (Shutterstock)

    Why does AI literacy matter?

    AI literacy equips learners to understand and navigate the pervasive influence of AI in their daily lives. It fosters critical thinking skills to assess AI outputs for misinformation and bias.

    AI literacy also enables students to make safe and informed decisions about when and how to use AI, preventing habits that compromise academic integrity. In addition, student knowledge of AI’s technical foundations demystifies AI, dispelling misconceptions that it is all-knowing, and highlights its capabilities and limitations.

    Furthermore, AI-literate students are better able to develop an ethical and human-centred mindset as they learn to consider AI’s social and environmental impacts, including issues of transparency, accountability, privacy and the environmental cost of AI systems.

    AI literacy prepares students to collaborate effectively and ethically with AI tools (for example, with writing) and helps them understand how to delegate only certain tasks to AI without cognitive offloading that may be detrimental at various developmental stages.

    Finally, AI literacy aims to ensure inclusive access to AI learning environments for all students, regardless of background, status or ability.

    Canadian and international landscape

    In Canada, some provinces and school boards are moving ahead with AI integration, while others offer very little teacher training and resources to do so.

    Some universities and community organizations are also taking the lead in building AI literacy by providing curricula, resources and training to teachers and students.

    These scattered efforts, while appreciated, lead to AI learning opportunities that are often ad-hoc or extracurricular. Without national or province-wide requirements, many students — especially in marginalized communities and under-resourced schools — may graduate high school with no exposure to AI concepts at all, worsening the digital divide.

    To put Canada’s situation in context, it is useful to compare with other countries that are implementing or proposing national AI education initiatives. As part of its National AI Strategy, Singapore launched a partnership to strengthen students’ AI literacy, building on earlier initiatives that focused on teacher training.

    A meaningful AI literacy strategy must begin in the classroom with age-appropriate content.
    (Shutterstock)

    In China, the Ministry of Education issued systematic guidelines to promote AI education in primary and secondary schools. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates introduced AI classes into its curricula starting in the primary years.

    More recently, the United States established an AI framework and a task force aimed at “building essential AI literacy from an early age to maintain a competitive edge in global technology development and prepare students for an AI-driven economy.”

    Canada, in comparison to these examples, has strengths in its bottom-up innovation but lacks a guiding vision. Canada needs a co-ordinated strategy that leverages federal-provincial collaboration through a unifying framework, shared resources and a common baseline of AI knowledge that every Canadian student should acquire.

    What should this strategy include?

    A meaningful AI literacy strategy must begin in the classroom with age-appropriate content. Students can start with the technical foundations and advance to think critically about AI’s limitations, ethical issues and social implications.

    It’s important that this content is woven across subjects and presented in ways that reflect the cultural and social contexts of learners.

    Equally essential is supporting educators. Teachers need practical, research-informed professional development and teaching toolkits that equip them to guide students through both the opportunities and risks of AI.

    To make these efforts sustainable and equitable, a national strategy must also include policy directions, regulations for the tech industry, community outreach programs and intentional opportunities for collaboration between various stakeholders (researchers, policymakers, school boards, teacher education programs and so on).

    Whether you think AI is a good or bad thing, the fact is it’s here. This is not a call to incorporate AI tools in schools. It is a call to make Canadian students aware of its abilities and implications. Our kids need to learn about this technology and how to use it responsibly.

    Mohammed Estaiteyeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada needs a national AI literacy strategy to help students navigate AI – https://theconversation.com/canada-needs-a-national-ai-literacy-strategy-to-help-students-navigate-ai-257513

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Canada needs a national AI literacy strategy to help students navigate AI

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Mohammed Estaiteyeh, Assistant Professor of Digital Pedagogies and Technology Literacies, Faculty of Education, Brock University

    AI literacy equips learners to understand and navigate the pervasive influence of AI in their daily lives. (Shutterstock)

    With students’ use of artificial intelligence (AI) tools on the rise in Canada and globally, reports of cheating and unethical behaviors are making headlines.

    One recent study indicates that 78 per cent of Canadian students have used generative AI to help with assignments or study tasks. In China, authorities have even shut down AI apps during nationwide exams to prevent cheating.

    Students seem unprepared to navigate this new world and educators are unsure how to handle it. This is a problem Canada and other countries can’t afford to ignore.

    The support structures and policies to guide students’ and educators’ responsible use of AI are often insufficient in Canadian schools. In a recent study, Canada ranked 44th in AI training and literacy out of 47 countries, and 28th among 30 advanced economies. Despite growing reliance on these technologies at homes and in the classrooms, Canada lacks a unified AI literacy strategy in K-12 education.

    Without co-ordinated action, this gap threatens to widen existing inequalities and leave both learners and educators vulnerable. Canadian schools need a national AI literacy strategy that provides a framework for teaching students about AI tools and how to use them responsibly.

    What is AI literacy?

    AI literacy is defined as:

    “An individual’s ability to clearly explain how AI technologies work and impact society, as well as to use them in an ethical and responsible manner and to effectively communicate and collaborate with them in any setting.”

    Acknowledging its importance, scholars and international organizations have been developing AI literacy frameworks. UNESCO has developed AI competency frameworks for students and teachers, highlighting key capabilities they should acquire to navigate AI implications.

    More recently, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the European Commission released their joint draft AI Literacy Framework for primary and secondary education. This framework defines AI literacy as the technical knowledge, durable skills and future-ready attitudes required to thrive in a world influenced by AI.

    The framework aims to empower learners to engage with, create with, manage and design AI, while critically evaluating its benefits, risks and ethical implications.

    AI-literate students are better able to develop an ethical and human-centred mindset as they learn to consider AI’s social and environmental impacts.
    (Shutterstock)

    Why does AI literacy matter?

    AI literacy equips learners to understand and navigate the pervasive influence of AI in their daily lives. It fosters critical thinking skills to assess AI outputs for misinformation and bias.

    AI literacy also enables students to make safe and informed decisions about when and how to use AI, preventing habits that compromise academic integrity. In addition, student knowledge of AI’s technical foundations demystifies AI, dispelling misconceptions that it is all-knowing, and highlights its capabilities and limitations.

    Furthermore, AI-literate students are better able to develop an ethical and human-centred mindset as they learn to consider AI’s social and environmental impacts, including issues of transparency, accountability, privacy and the environmental cost of AI systems.

    AI literacy prepares students to collaborate effectively and ethically with AI tools (for example, with writing) and helps them understand how to delegate only certain tasks to AI without cognitive offloading that may be detrimental at various developmental stages.

    Finally, AI literacy aims to ensure inclusive access to AI learning environments for all students, regardless of background, status or ability.

    Canadian and international landscape

    In Canada, some provinces and school boards are moving ahead with AI integration, while others offer very little teacher training and resources to do so.

    Some universities and community organizations are also taking the lead in building AI literacy by providing curricula, resources and training to teachers and students.

    These scattered efforts, while appreciated, lead to AI learning opportunities that are often ad-hoc or extracurricular. Without national or province-wide requirements, many students — especially in marginalized communities and under-resourced schools — may graduate high school with no exposure to AI concepts at all, worsening the digital divide.

    To put Canada’s situation in context, it is useful to compare with other countries that are implementing or proposing national AI education initiatives. As part of its National AI Strategy, Singapore launched a partnership to strengthen students’ AI literacy, building on earlier initiatives that focused on teacher training.

    A meaningful AI literacy strategy must begin in the classroom with age-appropriate content.
    (Shutterstock)

    In China, the Ministry of Education issued systematic guidelines to promote AI education in primary and secondary schools. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates introduced AI classes into its curricula starting in the primary years.

    More recently, the United States established an AI framework and a task force aimed at “building essential AI literacy from an early age to maintain a competitive edge in global technology development and prepare students for an AI-driven economy.”

    Canada, in comparison to these examples, has strengths in its bottom-up innovation but lacks a guiding vision. Canada needs a co-ordinated strategy that leverages federal-provincial collaboration through a unifying framework, shared resources and a common baseline of AI knowledge that every Canadian student should acquire.

    What should this strategy include?

    A meaningful AI literacy strategy must begin in the classroom with age-appropriate content. Students can start with the technical foundations and advance to think critically about AI’s limitations, ethical issues and social implications.

    It’s important that this content is woven across subjects and presented in ways that reflect the cultural and social contexts of learners.

    Equally essential is supporting educators. Teachers need practical, research-informed professional development and teaching toolkits that equip them to guide students through both the opportunities and risks of AI.

    To make these efforts sustainable and equitable, a national strategy must also include policy directions, regulations for the tech industry, community outreach programs and intentional opportunities for collaboration between various stakeholders (researchers, policymakers, school boards, teacher education programs and so on).

    Whether you think AI is a good or bad thing, the fact is it’s here. This is not a call to incorporate AI tools in schools. It is a call to make Canadian students aware of its abilities and implications. Our kids need to learn about this technology and how to use it responsibly.

    Mohammed Estaiteyeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada needs a national AI literacy strategy to help students navigate AI – https://theconversation.com/canada-needs-a-national-ai-literacy-strategy-to-help-students-navigate-ai-257513

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Netflix TV drama ‘Secrets We Keep’ exposes the dangers of domestic migrant work

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Reena Kukreja, Associate Professor, Global Development Studies, Queen’s University, Ontario

    In Secrets We Keep, the hidden world of domestic work and abuse is exposed. Here Excel Busano who plays Angel, Cecilia’s au pair and Ruby’s best friend in Denmark speaks with her community on the phone. Tine Harden/Netflix

    Secrets We Keep (Reservatet), a Danish suspense series on Netflix created by Ingeborg Topsøe, delves into the disappearance of a Filipina au pair from an elite suburb of Copenhagen — and delivers a sharp social commentary on racial and class entitlements.

    Moving fluidly between English, Danish and Tagalog, the six-part drama is a nuanced indictment of the lack of moral accountability among the rich. On display are the prejudices and complicity of white women in enabling a culture of toxic masculinity that treats Filipina migrant women as sexualized and disposable commodities.

    The story starts with a tearful Ruby Tan — a Filipina au pair who works for the affluent Rasmus (Lars Ranthe) and Katarina (Danica Curcic) — asking for some help with her employers from her neighbour, Cecilie (played by Marie Bach Hansen).

    Cecilie is a successful non-profit manager and mother of two married to a high-profile lawyer. She employs Angel (Excel Busano), a Filipina au pair. Cecilie tells Ruby she cannot get involved.

    The next day, Ruby vanishes without a trace.

    The series is propelled by Cecilie’s guilt in refusing to help Ruby. She is shocked at her neighbours’ apparent lack of concern for Ruby’s disappearance.

    Cecilie begins to sleuth for clues regarding Ruby’s disappearance and she eventually decides to assist Aicha, a racialized policewoman assigned to find the missing au pair. Cecilie discovers a pregnancy kit by a trash bin where she had last seen Ruby. And she soon suspects Ruby’s employer, Rasmus, of raping her.

    While the series lacks true suspense due to its predictable story arc peppered with clues about Ruby’s disappearance, it is amply compensated by a sharp critique on the moral decay of modern society, systemic racism and the complicity of women in upholding white masculine privilege.

    Warped racist view of the world

    Secrets We Keep lays bare the warped world view of rich, white privilege, racism and the sexual fetishism of Asian women.

    At a dinner party one night, Rasmus and Katarina do not seem concerned about their missing au pair. Katarina labels Filipina au pairs as whores working in brothels. When discussing Ruby, Katarina says, “she probably ran off to do porn.”

    In one uncomfortable scene, Rasmus taunts Cecilia’s husband, Mike (Simon Sears), about his sexual preferences. Mike responds by saying: “I don’t have ‘yellow fever.’” Cecilia sits silently beside Mike.

    Katarina also calls Aicha (Sara Fanta Traore), the policewoman, “the little brown one.”

    At a formal dinner, Rasmus tells Cecilia: “We stick together. We are from the same world, and we are loyal to each other.”

    High rates of violence against women

    The reduction of Ruby into a sexual object in the show reflects the high rates of sexual violence against Filipina au pairs in Scandinavia.

    It led the Philippines to ban the participation of Scandinavian countries in its “informal labour” arrangement in 1998. Though the ban was lifted in 2010, Au Pair Network, an advocacy group, reveals that the program is still riddled with abuse.

    The Nordic Paradox is a term used to describe how Scandinavian countries, including Denmark, rank the highest in the Gender Equality Index yet suffer from very high rates of violence against women and intimate partner violence in Europe.

    At a recent gender studies conference in Stockholm, Ardis Ingvars, a sociologist at the University of Iceland who worked as an au pair for a year in the United States just after she turned 18, recalls her anxiety and apprehension as she moved to Boston.

    She said:

    “Au pairs hope to be lucky with the family turning out OK. What is difficult to take is the attitude of ‘ownership’ that the children and families display over the au pairs as an unquestioned entitlement.”

    Ingvars said asymmetrical power relations embedded within the au pair system reinforce racial and class hierarchies.

    This is reflected in Secrets We Keep. Midway during Aicha’s investigation, as she hits roadblock after roadblock, she cries out in frustration: “She’s a fucking nobody in their world.”

    Aicha Petersen (Sara Fanta Traore) is the police investigator charged with finding Ruby in ‘Secrets We Keep’.
    Netflix

    Feminized labour exploitation

    Economic globalization, neoliberal policies and an increased dependence on the remittance economy fuses with the care gap in the Global North to fuel the feminized care migration from the Global South, many of them Filipino women.

    Au pairs are placed with host families who provide free board and meals in return for up to 30 hours a week of housework and child care as they learn the host language and customs. The au pairs are paid “pocket money” of Danish Kroner 5,000 per month (approx $1,000 Canadian) out of which they also pay local taxes.

    One scene shows one of Cecilie’s work meetings. A junior staff member expresses surprise that Cecilie has an au pair, labelling it a relic of colonial era racial hierarchies.

    Cecilie defends herself, and says the system survives because of the failure of men to keep up their domestic bargain and thus the need for women like her “to outsource care.”

    She argues the Filipina au pairs “are dependable” and she is “a much better mother” because of Angel. But Cecilie doesn’t acknowledge her privilege — that to be with her children and have a career is predicated on the exploitative extraction of care from Global South women.

    The female au pairs in Denmark must be between 18-29 years of age, childless, never married and at the end of two years, return home. Almost 50 to 75 per cent of au pairs in Denmark are Filipino women

    Cecilie’s shock at finding out that Angel has a son whom she left behind in the Philippines is part of her denial. In the end, Cecilie is unable to confront her own complicity and decides to release Angel from their au pair arrangement.

    “You know nothing about my world…You are very lucky,” cries Angel in anguish as Cecilie hands her the return ticket and an extra three months’ pay to demonstrate her magnanimity.

    Secrets We Keep reveals the brutal reality for Global South au pairs as well as upper-class white women and their entitlements. It indicates that even though these white wealthy women may see mistreatment, they maintain their silence and participate in wilful gendered violence to hold onto that privilege, while maintaining a façade of compassion towards the disposable racial migrant other.

    Reena Kukreja receives funding from SSHRC.

    – ref. Netflix TV drama ‘Secrets We Keep’ exposes the dangers of domestic migrant work – https://theconversation.com/netflix-tv-drama-secrets-we-keep-exposes-the-dangers-of-domestic-migrant-work-258556

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why brands are embracing fantasy: The psychology behind escapist marketing in anxious times

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Eugene Y. Chan, Associate Professor of Marketing, Toronto Metropolitan University

    Why did Aritzia open a café inside its flagship store in Toronto? Why did Burberry pivot from fashion photography to cinematic ads that transport viewers into dreamlike sequences? And why is Simons, Canada’s remaining department store, incorporating art and interactive technologies into its retail spaces?

    The answer lies in a trend known as escapist marketing. In an era marked by economic uncertainty, climate anxiety, geopolitical tensions and relentless digital fatigue, brands are turning to fantasy, storytelling and emotionally immersive design to sell products to consumers.

    Escapist marketing is a strategy that creates emotionally immersive experiences to help consumers temporarily escape from reality, often through fantasy, nostalgia or idealized lifestyles. It taps into the desire for relief from stress or monotony by offering imaginative or aspirational narratives.

    A video introducing ‘It’s Always Burberry Weather: London in Love,’ a series of seven films by Burberry inspired by British romantic comedies.

    Escapist marketing has been gaining traction in Canada as consumers are drawn to brands that spark imagination and emotional engagement. According to a 2024 Retail Council of Canada report, Gen Z shoppers prefer brands that offer emotional connection, purpose and creativity.

    The inaugural Great Canadian Brand Index, which one of us (Eugene Y. Chan) helped develop, found that brands perceived as adventurous, honest and imaginative scored highest in overall public favourability. These are precisely the qualities expressed through fantastical storytelling.

    As marketing professors and researchers, we’ve been studying how and why this approach works, and we’ve found it’s grounded in psychology.

    The rise of fantasy in branding

    While brands have long used aspiration in their marketing, today’s strategies feel noticeably different. The focus has shifted from luxury and exclusivity to escapism itself, and it’s becoming increasingly visible across industries.

    Consider Coca-Cola’s “Real Magic” campaign, for instance, which uses AI-generated imagery to create whimsical dreamscapes. Or Apple’s recent “Mother Nature” ad, which reframes a corporate report about the brand’s support of environmental and social issues as a high-concept film starring Octavia Spencer.

    Apple’s ‘Mother Nature’ ad.

    In London, Gucci’s “Gucci Cosmos” series invites visitors into a surreal world of time travel and design history.

    These marketing campaigns are all designed to be emotional experiences for consumers. This means that the emotional reactions consumers have during interactions with a brand, product or service influence their attitudes, memories and future decision-making. These emotions deepen engagement and strengthen brand loyalty.

    As consumers continue to feel burned out and overstimulated, fantasy in the form of escapism offers them mental relief. Research shows that immersive experiences — whether through entertainment, retail environments or brand storytelling — can distract from stressors and promote emotional recovery. By providing a temporary break from reality, fantasy-driven marketing taps into a deep psychological need for comfort and cognitive release.

    Why it works: The psychology of escapism

    To understand why escapist marketing is so effective, it helps to look at the psychology behind it.

    One explanation comes from construal level theory, a framework that examines how psychological distance shapes thinking. When something feels far away in time, space or familiarity, we tend to think about it more abstractly.

    Surreal or fantastical branding increases this distance, shifting consumers’ focus from immediate utility to emotional resonance, identity and imagination.

    While escapist marketing is a broader strategy that aims to help consumers mentally disengage from reality, surreal or fantastical branding is one specific tactic that uses dreamlike, imaginative visuals and narratives to achieve that goal.

    Not all escapist marketing is surreal, but surreal branding often serves as a powerful form of escapism by transporting consumers into an alternate world.

    A video about the Gucci Cosmos exhibition celebrating over 100 years of the brand’s history.

    Our research supports this. In one study, we explored how concave visual design — where ad elements curve inward — draws viewers into the imagery, increases feelings of immersion and enhances message recall and persuasion. This is likely why dreamlike campaigns often use fluid, expansive or distorted imagery.

    Another factor is anthropomorphism: the tendency to assign human traits to objects or environments. In our studies on destination branding, we found that people are more emotionally connected to places or products that seem to come alive. These findings help explain why fantastical branding resonates so strongly with consumers, particularly in times of stress.

    Escapism also pairs naturally with luxury branding, where emotional desire often outweighs functional need. In a recent study with our research colleagues, we found that luxury brands were evaluated more favourably when their positioning felt abstract or elevated. Fantasy enhances this effect, allowing consumers to feel both wealthier and transported.

    Escapism isn’t a free pass

    There’s a fine line between meaningful escapism and empty spectacle. If a brand’s fantasy narrative feels disconnected from its action, or appears to mask unethical practices, consumers are quick to notice.

    Greenwashing, AI overuse or tone-deaf advertising can easily backfire on businesses.

    When consumers perceive a brand as inauthentic — whether through misleading sustainability claims, excessive reliance on AI or insensitive messaging — it can erode trust, trigger public criticism and lead to brand avoidance.

    Studies show that such missteps often result in reputational damage and decreased customer loyalty, particularly among values-driven or socially aware consumers

    This is where the concept of radical honesty intersects with escapism. The most effective marketing campaigns today blend creativity with transparency. They tell imaginative stories while also acknowledging real-world issues like carbon emissions, labour practices and social justice issues.

    Brands like Patagonia — and Peace Collective in Canada that’s working in conjunction with McDonalds — have managed to strike this balance by combining emotionally impactful ad campaigns with commitments to ethical and sustainable practices.

    Consumers want experiences that resonate

    In times of economic stress and cultural fatigue, Canadians are seeking experiences that resonate with them. When done thoughtfully and grounded in psychology and authenticity, escapist marketing can respond to consumers’ desire to feel something deeper, even via something as brief as a 30-second ad.

    So next time you find yourself smiling at a surreal commercial or lingering in a carefully curated retail space, understand that small moment of wonder is a strategic choice, supported by research.

    But while immersive storytelling may captivate audiences, consumers are becoming more discerning about what feels authentic. The future of escapist marketing may lie in the blending of digital and physical realities. Tools like augmented and virtual reality can allow brands to create even more immersive fantasies.

    Imagine ordering coffee from an AI-generated character or in a branded metaverse cafe. While it may seem futuristic and fun, many consumers feel uneasy when brands rely too heavily on artificial interactions, fearing a loss of authenticity. This tension highlights the growing divide between technological novelty and the human connection consumers still crave.

    As technology evolves, so, too, will consumer expectations of emotional, imaginative engagement. The next chapter in fantasy branding may not just offer us an escape, but could redefine how we experience commerce itself.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why brands are embracing fantasy: The psychology behind escapist marketing in anxious times – https://theconversation.com/why-brands-are-embracing-fantasy-the-psychology-behind-escapist-marketing-in-anxious-times-259226

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Labour is divided over disability cuts – here’s what the public thinks

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Curtice, Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow, National Centre for Social Research

    Keir Starmer’s MPs are rebelling en masse against cuts to the benefits system. Flickr/UK Parliament, CC BY-NC-ND

    Keir Starmer has been dealing with his most serious parliamentary challenge since he became prime minister. More than a hundred Labour MPs backed a motion to stop in its tracks the government’s attempt to reduce the welfare bill, including by raising the threshold at which someone can claim disability benefit.

    This issue has divided the parliamentary Labour party. But what does the public think?

    Although there are signs people recognise that spending on disability benefits is now relatively high, the latest annual British Social Attitudes (BSA) report reveals that it is far from clear that they are supportive of cutbacks. And, unfortunately for the government this is especially true of those who voted Labour last year.

    Ever since the late 1990s, BSA has regularly asked its respondents whether they would like “to see more or less government spending than now on benefits for disabled people who cannot work”. In 1998, 78% indicated they would like to see more spending. By 2011, that figure had fallen to 53%, and it was still no more than 56% in 2021.

    Attitudes to spending on disability benefits, 1998-2024.
    British Social Attitudes, CC BY-ND

    Now, though, only 45% would like to see more money spent on disability benefits. For the first time, less than half the country backs giving those with a disability more help.

    However, that does not mean most voters would like to see actual cutbacks. Only 11% say the government should spend less on disability benefits. The rest are content with the status quo.

    Meanwhile, just 5% of those who voted Labour last year back less spending. Over half (53%) are in favour of an increase.

    The government’s central argument is that it has become too easy to claim disability benefits and that this is discouraging people from getting back into employment.

    Work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall first announced the cuts in March 2025.
    Flickr/UK Parliament, CC BY-NC-ND

    There is some support for this view. Among the public in general, 29% say it is “too easy” to claim disability benefit. The trouble is, just as many, 29%, take the opposite view and say it is “too difficult”. The most popular response, given by 35%, is that it is “neither too easy nor too difficult”.

    Meanwhile, among Labour voters, the balance of opinion is clearly tilted towards the view that claiming disability benefit is “too difficult”. As many as 39% say so, while only 20% feel it is “too easy”.

    Similarly, most voters (62%) feel the requirement for people on disability benefits to take “active measures to find appropriate work” is “about right”. Just 11% feel it is “too weak”, while more than twice as many (23%) believe it is “too tough”. Only 6% of Labour voters believe it is “too weak”.

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    These figures help explain why the government has seemingly been struggling to head off the rebellion. Already burned by voters’ reaction to last year’s cutback to the winter fuel allowance, and with their party trailing Reform in the polls, Labour MPs now find themselves presented with another cut that threatens to be unpopular with many of those who put them into Westminster. Little wonder there are now signs the government is having to bend to their view.

    .

    John Curtice is currently in receipt of funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

    – ref. Labour is divided over disability cuts – here’s what the public thinks – https://theconversation.com/labour-is-divided-over-disability-cuts-heres-what-the-public-thinks-259840

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why your holiday flight is still not being powered by sustainable aviation fuel

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Salman Ahmad, Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, University of the West of Scotland

    Fahroni/Shutterstock

    As you wait in the departure lounge for your flight this summer, you may notice your aeroplane being pumped full of fuel ahead of takeoff. And then you may start to wonder why flying is still so dependent on fossil fuels, and whether you should have booked a holiday destination that’s accessible by a more environmentally friendly form of transport.

    So what happened to plans for so-called sustainable aviation fuel? Wasn’t it supposed to be the “game changer” that would make flying a much greener travel option than it used to be?

    Clearly, the move to adopt the technology is facing difficulties. One problem seems to be that there simply isn’t enough sustainable fuel to go around.

    But the business side of the process is also holding back sustainable fuel uptake.

    Research my colleagues and I conducted in 2021 revealed a deeply fragmented landscape at pretty much every step of sustainable fuel development. There are obstacles everywhere, blocking the paths of the producers developing these fuels, the airlines who might use them and the governmental and campaign groups pushing for change.

    Everyone seems to agree that sustainable fuel matters. They just don’t all agree about how to really get it off the ground.

    Our findings demonstrate that producers, for instance, were understandably focused on more research and development to improve efficient production. They were also worried that scaling up facilities could disrupt production that is already in place.

    Airlines meanwhile, are grappling with the economics of moving to sustainable fuel, which is around three to ten times more expensive than conventional fuel. Right now, a litre of conventional aviation fuel costs around £0.96 per litre in the UK – for sustainable aviation fuel it’s around £1.97. (Depending on the length of the journey and the size of the engine, a plane could need around 13,000 litres per hour of flying.)

    They spoke about inconsistent supply (especially at major airports), and the need for clearer regulations and incentives across the industry.

    “Cost is clearly the most important driver,” one airline executive told us, explaining that dealing with those costs would ultimately depend on passenger demand for greener travel – and how willing those passengers are to pay a premium for sustainable fuel.

    Distribution companies that take the sustainable fuel where it needs to go, have found themselves struggling to navigate the complexities of an emerging supply chain. They spoke of the logistical challenges of transporting and storing sustainable fuel, and a lack of clear communication between producers and airlines.

    They saw themselves as a crucial part of the sustainable aviation fuel puzzle, but were concerned about investing in logistics and infrastructure without guaranteed demand.

    Elsewhere, politicians and climate campaigners tend to view the adoption of sustainable fuel from a broader perspective, stressing the urgency of action on climate change. Their thinking is dominated by environmental strategy and sustainable aviation fuel regulation.

    But here, trust becomes an issue. Some of those involved with sustainable fuel development said they doubted government promises to support the sector over the long term. Others are cynical about whether airlines will really prioritise climate action over their very tight profit margins.

    Up in the air

    So sustainable fuel inspires plenty of different viewpoints and concerns. But one common thread was an overwhelming concern about cost and scale of production.

    Aside from being far more expensive than fossil-based jet fuel, building enough production facilities to make more will require billions of pounds of investment.

    The big question is who will foot the bill.

    sustainable fuel, on a wing and a prayer?
    Bulent camci/Shutterstock

    Some of this will need to be tax funded. For if the UK wants to become a leader in the use of sustainable aviation fuel, as the government says it does, it needs more than ambitious targets. It needs to start making things happen.

    And our research suggests that the industry as a whole would benefit from some certainty to encourage investment right across the supply chain. Without a clear and stable regulatory framework, everyone will remain hesitant about committing significant resources to sustainable fuel.

    Collaboration between the key players could also be improved, with a better dialogue between those in the industry and regulators, potentially leading to a shared vision for the future of sustainable aviation fuel.

    That future is by no means doomed. Major commercial airlines like Air France-KLM, IAG (British Airways) and United Airlines in the US are working with sustainable fuel producers around the world.

    But while the desire to decarbonise aviation seems clear, the path forward is not straightforward. It is a complex picture of politics, economics, trust and differing priorities.

    By navigating this turbulence wisely, the sustainable fuel sector can be part of a broader flight path to net zero. But if managed poorly, targets to dramatically increase its use will remain elusive.

    Salman Ahmad received funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council to undertake work that informs the contents of this article. He is also a professional member of the Project Management Institue and the Association for Supply Chain Management.

    – ref. Why your holiday flight is still not being powered by sustainable aviation fuel – https://theconversation.com/why-your-holiday-flight-is-still-not-being-powered-by-sustainable-aviation-fuel-258958

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: The architecture of the new Queen Elizabeth II memorial aims to commemorate her as ‘a unifying force’

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster

    In the heart of London’s St James’s Park, where John Nash’s 200-year-old landscape has witnessed the rise and fall of empires, a new chapter is about to unfold. The site that has long served as the nation’s ceremonial backdrop will soon become home to something unprecedented: a memorial not just to a monarch, but to an entire era.

    The winner of the competition to design Queen Elizabeth II’s memorial has been announced, and perhaps it was inevitable that it would be Norman Foster.

    However, it was also clear that the memorial was intended to be a new national landmark that somehow encapsulated the queen and changed national values and identities during her long reign.

    Almost inevitably, it is to be situated in a Grade-I listed setting in St James’s Park, London. This presented designers with the further challenge of how to sensitively respond to John Nash’s historic landscape design across a site that spans the breadth of the park.

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    After initial expressions of interest were sifted, the five candidates shortlisted in February had to come up with a master plan that was emotionally resonant and sustainable.

    It also had to be compatible with the existing use of this extensive site, not least as a thoroughfare presenting vistas of Buckingham Palace and Whitehall. This memorial therefore involved much more than the simple statues of the Queen’s father and grandfather that came before it.

    Even the memorial to Queen Victoria, undoubtedly the most commemorated woman in British history, is modest in scale compared to this new project.

    The Queen Elizabeth II memorial is clearly intended to be very different from Victoria’s imperial confection. The brief for the design specified that it had to be immediately comprehensible to peoples of all races and religions, respect the park’s wildlife, be easy to maintain and be reasonably vandal proof. Above all, the proposal had to evoke the late queen’s qualities and “tell the story of her long reign through integrated design, landscaping and placemaking”.

    The process was therefore an exercise in landscape architecture, rather than producing an artwork.

    The queen herself had considerable familiarity with architecture. During her reign, she opened 122 buildings in London alone, as well as iconic buildings around the world, such as Sydney Opera House.

    The queen described the latter as “a splendid achievement of engineering and architecture”. Her similar enthusiasm when opening the Barbican in London suggests that her architectural tastes were less traditional than her eldest son’s.

    Yet there was no dominant school of architecture among the buildings she opened, nor a New Elizabethan style that defined her reign. It would be impossible to evoke the eclectic architecture range of her reign without pastiche.

    However, if there was no defining architecture, there arguably was a defining architect – the nonagenarian Sir Norman Foster. A working-class lad from Manchester who built a globally renowned architectural brand, his architectural career, which commenced in 1956, nearly coincides with the queen’s reign.

    During that reign, many of the significant buildings she opened, such as Stansted Airport, were designed by Foster. In his career, he has won every major architectural award and produced major landmark buildings all over the world. In consequence, he has been described as the “perfect architect for his era”.

    With all due respect to the acclaimed teams of designers he was competing with, it therefore seems appropriate that his firm, Foster + Partners, should have been chosen to evoke the reign of a monarch during which his buildings featured so prominently.

    A ‘unifying force’

    To win the bid, Foster + Partners had to assemble a multidisciplinary team, including the British artist Yinka Shonibare. Their proposal was felt to address many of the dualities of the Queen’s reign: tradition and modernity, public duty and private faith and the relationship between the UK and the Commonwealth that was always dear to Elizabeth II’s heart.

    To express these dualities, their master plan provided for two gates and two gardens, united by a path and a new translucent bridge over the park’s lake. As Foster reflected, this was intended to convey the queen’s role “as a unifying force”.

    Probably one factor that worked in their favour was the significance given to the Duke of Edinburgh. The firm’s suggestion of a statue of the royal couple together is unusual. The statues of the queen’s parents, in contrast, are separate if adjacent on a staircase on the north side of The Mall facing the park where their daughter’s memorial will appear. This plan brings her back together with the beloved husband she so missed after his death in 2021. It’s a move that the queen would no doubt have thoroughly approved.

    The design concept will, of course, be refined. The architectural renders at present can only give a glimpse of what the memorial landscape will look like in practice, let alone convey the ambience it seeks to evoke. Such details will need to be developed before the designs are submitted for planning permission.

    Nevertheless, it does seem appropriate that, for an era that defies architectural categorisation it should reflect the vision of the man who, more than any other, has been the architect of the age.

    Pippa Catterall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The architecture of the new Queen Elizabeth II memorial aims to commemorate her as ‘a unifying force’ – https://theconversation.com/the-architecture-of-the-new-queen-elizabeth-ii-memorial-aims-to-commemorate-her-as-a-unifying-force-259843

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: In the sky over Iran, Elon Musk and Starlink step into geopolitics – not for the first time

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joscha Abels, Post-Doctoral Researcher, Institute of Political Science, University of Tübingen

    It was the briefest of messages, but the potential consequences could have been significant. Elon Musk posted a four-word tweet on June 14: “The beams are on”. The message prefigured a consequential intervention – not only in Iranian domestic affairs but potentially in the geopolitics of the Middle East. The US billionaire was responding to a request on his online platform X, asking him to activate the Starlink satellite system over Iran in support of anti-government protests.

    Following Israel’s military strikes on critical sites in Iran, the Islamic Republic imposed a large-scale internet shutdown that saw a drastic drop in connectivity throughout the county. Nationwide restrictions were placed on access to websites, social media platforms and mobile networks.

    This has effectively limited the inflow of media reports to the Iranian public. It has also made it more difficult for Iranians to organise amid violent crackdowns by the regime’s security forces. The activation of Starlink could allow them to bypass government censorship and restore contact with the outside world – and each other.

    It is not the first time Iran’s government has restricted internet access to stifle unrest – nor is it the first time that Musk got involved. In 2022, amid nationwide protests following the death of a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, at the hands of the security forces, ostensibly for wearing her hijab incorrectly, Musk activated Starlink over Iran for the first time.

    This triggered the smuggling of thousands of Starlink terminals into the country from neighbouring states. These terminals are flat rectangular devices, no larger than a baking tray. It is estimated that around 20,000 of them have found their way into Iran, giving Musk’s latest move a more immediate impact.

    Still, reestablishing internet coverage remains difficult. The few available Starlink terminals are traded on the black market at exorbitant prices, and Starlink services in Iran still require payments of a monthly subscription fee. Iran’s government has also issued threats against citizens who use the system.

    A new kind of warfare

    Starlink is the most advanced communication satellite system in the world. Orbiting Earth at an altitude of about 550kms, its satellites deliver high-speed internet to customers around the globe. Out of more than 12,000 active satellites in orbit, around 7,600 belong to Starlink.

    The system is operated by SpaceX, a space tech firm headquartered in Texas. SpaceX has recently become the world’s most valuable privately held company according to Bloomberg, surpassing even ByteDance (TikTok) and OpenAI.

    Musk continues to act as the company’s largest stakeholder and chief executive, even while wielding huge political influence (following his recent rift with the US president, there is evidence he still wields considerable political clout in the US).

    Starlink owes much of its geopolitical relevance to modern warfare. Secure communications have become essential on today’s data-driven battlefields. The mass availability of drones has fundamentally changed how wars are fought. High-bandwidth connections are needed for drones to transmit live video and receive targeting data.

    As land-based connections are vulnerable to sabotage and outright attacks, mega-constellations such as Starlink provide a robust alternative. Comprising thousands of units, several hundreds of kilometres above ground, their services are difficult to disrupt.

    Ukraine: a cautionary tale

    Nowhere has the importance of satellite communications for geopolitics been more evident than in Ukraine. Russia prepared its invasion by conducting cyberattacks on Ukraine’s Viasat system. Musk responded by activating Starlink, announcing the move in the same casual style that he used for Iran.

    The effect was immediate. Starlink quickly became indispensable for Ukraine’s counter-offensive efforts. Amid the Russian onslaught, it provided the nation’s military with secure communications to push back against the invasion. For SpaceX, this yielded not just hugely positive publicity but also substantial financial injections from investors.

    Just months into Starlink’s activation, SpaceX initiated a strategic shift. Ukrainian forces reported outages along the front lines, especially when pushing into Russian-occupied territory. In October 2022, Musk floated the idea that SpaceX might withdraw support altogether, citing high operational costs.

    By February 2023, the company had begun limiting Starlink’s use for the operation of Ukrainian drones. SpaceX’s chief operating office, Gwynne Shotwell stated that the system was “never intended to be weaponized”.

    Power in private hands

    Starlink’s role in Ukraine offers a striking example of how modern communications can change the course of conflicts, as I argued in a recent article in the European Journal of International Relations. At the same time, it serves as a cautionary tale about the reliability of critical systems in the hands of private corporations and powerful individuals.

    In Ukraine, Musk held the power to effectively veto military operations. No democratic body provided oversight – the signal could be switched off with a tweet. Starlink’s role in Iran raises similarly uncomfortable questions: who decides when – or whether – citizens get to communicate?

    While the region is struggling to establish a fragile ceasefire, political unrest in Iran is unlikely to subside soon. The deeper truth remains that communications within Iran’s civil society currently depend on the world’s wealthiest person – and no alternatives are in sight.

    Joscha Abels receives funding from the German Research Foundation (DFG), grant 526359979.

    – ref. In the sky over Iran, Elon Musk and Starlink step into geopolitics – not for the first time – https://theconversation.com/in-the-sky-over-iran-elon-musk-and-starlink-step-into-geopolitics-not-for-the-first-time-259833

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: There is no loneliness epidemic – so why do we keep talking as if there is?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Brendan Kelly, Professor of Psychiatry, Trinity College Dublin

    fran_kie/Shutterstock.com

    Most people experience periods of loneliness, isolation or solitude in their lives. But these are different things, and the proportion of people feeling lonely is stable over time. So why do we keep talking about an epidemic of loneliness?

    Before the COVID pandemic, several studies showed that rates of loneliness were stable in England, the US, Finland, Sweden and Germany, among other places, over recent decades.

    While COVID changed many things, loneliness levels quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels. In 2018, 34% of US adults aged 50 to 80 years reported a lack of companionship “some of the time” or “often”. That proportion rose to 42% during the pandemic but fell to 33% in 2024.

    That’s a lot of lonely people, but it is not an epidemic. In some countries, such as Sweden, loneliness is in decline – at least among older adults.

    Despite these statistics, the idea that loneliness is increasing is pervasive. For example in 2023, the US surgeon general warned about an “epidemic of loneliness and isolation”. The UK even has a government minister with an explicit responsibility for addressing loneliness.

    Loneliness is a problem, even if it is not an epidemic. Social connection is important for physical and mental health. Many people feel lonely in a crowd or feel crowded when alone. In 2023, the World Health Organization announced a “Commission on Social Connection”. The WHO is right: we need to reduce loneliness in our families, communities and societies.

    But the idea that loneliness is an “epidemic” is misleading and it draws us away from sustainable solutions, rather than towards them. It suggests that loneliness is a new problem (it is not), that it is increasing (it is not), that it is beyond our control (it is not), and that the only appropriate reaction is an emergency one (it is not).

    In the short term, loneliness is an undesirable psychological state. In the long term, it is a risk factor for chronic ill health.

    Loneliness is not a sudden crisis that needs a short-term fix. It is a long-term challenge that requires a sustained response. An emergency reaction is not appropriate – a measured response is. Initiatives by the US surgeon general and WHO are welcome, but they should be long-term responses to an enduring problem, not emergency reactions to an “epidemic”.

    Vivek Murthy, the former US surgeon general warned about an epidemic of loneliness in America.
    lev radin/Shutterstock

    Medicalising normal human experience

    Conceptual clarity is essential if true loneliness is to be addressed. Pathologising all instances of being alone risks medicalising normal human experiences such as solitude. Some people feel alive only in crowds, but others were born lighthouse keepers. In a hyper-connected world, loneliness should be solvable, but solitude must be treasured.

    So, if there is no loneliness epidemic, why do we keep talking as if there is? Media framing of the issue and the human tendency to panic reinforce each other. We click into news stories based on subjective resonance rather than objective evidence.

    Human behaviour is shaped primarily by feelings, not facts. We dramatise, panic, and overstate negative trends. If trends are positive, we focus on minor counter-trends, ignore statistics and make things up.

    In the case of loneliness, the problem is real, even if the “epidemic” is not. Loneliness is part of the human condition, but alleviating each other’s loneliness is also part of who we are – or who we can become.

    Addressing loneliness is not about solving a short-term problem or halting an “epidemic”. It means learning to live with each other in new, more integrated ways that meet our emotional needs. Loneliness is not the problem. It is a consequence of living in societies that are often disconnected and fragmented.

    The solution? We cannot change the essentials of human nature – and nor should we try. But we can be a little kinder to ourselves, speak to each other a little more, and cultivate compassion for ourselves and other people.

    We need to connect with each other better and more. We can. We should. We will.

    Brendan Kelly does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. There is no loneliness epidemic – so why do we keep talking as if there is? – https://theconversation.com/there-is-no-loneliness-epidemic-so-why-do-we-keep-talking-as-if-there-is-259072

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why evolution can explain human testicle size but not our unique chins

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Max Telford, Jodrell Professor of Zoology and Comparative Anatomy, UCL

    neurobit/Shutterstock

    The human body is a machine whose many parts – from the microscopic details of our cells to our limbs, eyes, liver and brain – have been assembled in fits and starts over the four billion years of our history.

    But scientists are still puzzling over why we evolved into this particular form. Why do humans uniquely have a chin, for example? And why, relative to body weight, is a human testicle triple the size of a gorilla’s but a fifth of that of a chimpanzee? As I show in my new book, The Tree of Life, we are still searching for the answers to many of these “why” questions. But we are starting to find answers to some of them.

    The story of evolution tells us how, starting from simple beginnings, each species was built – when each of the components that make a living creature was added to its blueprint. If we climb the evolutionary tree of life, we can follow a twisting path that visits the increasingly specialised branches that a species belongs to. We humans, for example, were animals before we became vertebrates; mammals before evolving into primates and so on.

    The groups of species we share each of these branches with reveal the order our body parts appeared in. A body and a gut (inventions of the animal branch) must have come before backbone and limbs (vertebrate branch); milk and hair (mammals) came before fingernails (primates).

    There is a way we can study the separate problem of just why we evolved each of these body parts, but it only works if the feature in question has evolved more than once on separate branches of the tree of life. This repeated evolution is called convergence. It can be a source of frustration for biologists because it confuses us as to how species are related. Swallows and swifts, for example, were once classified as sister species. We now know from both DNA and comparisons of their skeletons that swallows are really closer relatives of owls than swifts.

    Size matters when it comes to evolution

    But convergent evolution becomes something useful when we think of it as a kind of natural experiment. The size of primate testicles gives us a classic example. Abyssinian black and white colobus monkey and bonnet macaque adult males are roughly the same size. But, like chimps, humans and gorillas, these similar monkeys have vastly dissimilar testicles. Colobus testicles weigh just 3 grams. The testicles of the macaques, in contrast, are a whopping 48 grams.

    Bonnet macaques are no monogamists.
    SHAJI C/Shutterstock

    You could come up with several believable explanations for their different testicle sizes. Large testicles might be the equivalent of the peacock’s tail, not useful per se but attractive to females. But perhaps the most plausible explanation relates to the way they mate. A male colobus monkey competes ferociously for access to a harem of females who will mate exclusively with him. Macaques, on the other hand live in peaceful mixed troops of about 30 monkeys and have a different approach to love where everyone mates with everyone else: males with multiple females (polygamy) and females with multiple males (polyandry).

    The colobus with his harem can get away with producing a bare minimum of sperm – if a droplet is enough to produce a baby, then why make more? For a male macaque the competition to reproduce happens in a battle between his sperm and the sperm of other males who mated before or after. A male macaque with large testicles should make more sperm, giving him a higher chance of passing on his genes. It’s a sensible explanation for their different testicle sizes, but is it true? This is where convergent evolution helps.

    If we look across the whole of the mammal branch of the tree of life we find there are many groups of mammals that have evolved testicles of all different sizes. In almost all these separate cases, larger testicles are consistently found in promiscuous species and smaller in monogamous.

    A small-testicled, silverback male gorilla has sole access to a harem. Big-testicled chimps and bonobos are indeed highly promiscuous. Dolphins, meanwhile, may have the biggest mammalian testicles of all, making up as much as 4% of their body weight (equivalent to human testicles weighing roughly 3 kilos). Although wild dolphin sex lives are naturally hard to study, spinner dolphins at least fit our expectations, engaging in mass mating events called wuzzles.

    It was thanks to the multiple observations provided by convergent evolution that we were able to discover this consistent correlation between testicle size and sex life right across the mammals. And as for humans, we have testicle size somewhere in the middle, you can make of this what you want!

    But what of the human chin?

    The human chin has been fertile ground for arguments between scientists over its purpose. As with testicles, there are half a dozen plausible ideas to explain the evolution of the human chin. It could have evolved to strengthen the jaw of a battling caveman. Maybe the chin evolved to exaggerate the magnificence of a manly beard. It might even be a by-product of the invention of cooking and the softer food it produced – a functionless facial promontory left behind by the receding tide of a weakening jaw.

    Intriguingly, however, a chin can be found in no other mammal, not even our closest cousins the Neanderthals. Thanks to the uniqueness of the Homo sapiens chin, while we have a rich set of possible explanations for its evolutionary purpose, in the absence of convergent evolution, we have no sensible way of testing them.

    Some parts of human nature may be destined to remain a mystery.

    This article includes links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

    Max Telford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why evolution can explain human testicle size but not our unique chins – https://theconversation.com/why-evolution-can-explain-human-testicle-size-but-not-our-unique-chins-259419

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Netflix gives African film a platform – but the cultural price is high

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed, Assistant Professor of Communication, Cornell University

    Netflix began its Africa operations in South Africa in 2016. When the US streaming giant announced it was setting up shop in Nigeria in 2020, many west African film-makers, writers, artists and media audiences were jubilant.

    Finally, west Africa’s creativity and brilliance would be formally recognised on the world stage. Netflix Naija’s purpose was to produce local content for Netflix just like Netflix South Africa and later Netflix Kenya.



    Read more:
    Netflix Naija: creative freedom in Nigeria’s emerging digital space?

    Some film-makers have been wary of US cultural imperialism happening through the market dominance of Netflix and other US streamers. Others have rushed to the streamer to sign deals that will gain their films and TV shows a global audience.

    Netflix’s interest in African stories comes with a colonial power dynamic that research and scholarship has not fully explored. As a scholar of media and communication, I recently examined the effect US streamers are having on the stories being told in films in Nigeria and Ghana.

    In my study, I argue that despite the growing global interest in African pop culture, African creative workers need to be careful about interest from global conglomerates. We can’t talk about African cinemas going global without paying attention to how Hollywood’s colonial relationship with Africa has shaped and influenced what African filmmakers believe will sell globally.



    Read more:
    Black Panther, Wakanda Forever and the problem with Hollywood – an African perspective

    What price is being paid to appeal to global audiences? Film-makers might focus so much on the western gaze that they lose focus on telling African stories authentically and respectfully.

    In my study, I analyse various films including the Ghanaian film Azali and the Nigerian movie Lionheart to argue that that’s exactly what’s happening.

    Dancing to the tune of the west

    Despite the existence of thriving African film and TV industries before the advent of streaming technologies, we are seeing a replication of what I call the everydayness of colonialism in the area of media representations of the continent.

    Here, African filmmakers and producers find themselves jumping through hoops to tell stories that are “fit” to be streamed to Netflix’s millions of American, European and global subscribers. Global cosmopolitan audiences are prioritised over African audiences.



    Read more:
    Woman King is set in Benin but filmed in South Africa – in the process it erases real people’s struggles

    African audiences at home and in the diaspora are the reason we have vibrant film industries such as Nollywood to begin with.

    This displacement of African audiences happens both in representation and in access.

    Most African movie audiences do not have access to Netflix and other streaming platforms due to the digital divide and the cost of subscribing. So the target audience shifts to the elite, both African and global, who can afford to stream.

    Azali and Lionheart

    Ghana and Nigeria’s film industries were developed by artists who wanted to reflect their societies to their communities. I found that with Netflix’s arrival, there is a danger of disrupting and undoing this important work.

    The intervention of US streamers has led to the development of glossier versions of Africa. They are universal enough to be consumed by anyone, anywhere in the world, even if it means sacrificing the integrity of stories to achieve this global appeal.

    In Azali, for example, I found that the film sacrificed authentic language and geographical accuracy to tell a story for a western audience.

    Azali explores the themes of child marriage, child-trafficking and rural-urban migration in Ghana. Here, a film about the Dagbamba was set in the town of Zebilla, where Dagbanli is not the dominant language. The film cast non-Dagbanli speakers in major roles to speak a language they neither understood nor had any proficiency in. If Dagbamba had been centred as the primary audience of the movie, this cultural indignity might not have happened.

    Lionheart, though star-studded, departed from traditional Nollywood narrative conventions. The film tells the story of a wealthy Nigerian family and the quest of a young woman to take control of the family business. The movie had high production values and told a story that would be considered universally relatable. However, it was disqualified in its bid for an Oscar nomination in the Best International Feature Film category because of its majority English dialogue. Despite appealing to Netflix in the area of production quality and storyline, African film-makers were still punished by the Academy.

    Nigeria and Ghana’s film industries have traditionally told a wide variety of African stories. Netflix’s arrival is reducing African stories to stories about the elite and for the global cosmopolitan elite.

    Stories about the majority of Africans are being erased. Africa becomes a backdrop to tell stories about the elite class.

    In my study, I argue that narrative construction is an important part of identity and that when external factors begin to determine how African stories are told, it distorts the image of Africa for Africans and raises questions of cultural sovereignty.

    Moving forward

    It is refreshing to see African cultures appreciated on a global scale. But this shouldn’t erase narratives about the African masses and working communities.

    There are film-makers that are resisting the Netflix canon. Nigerian actress and producer Funke Akindele shows that this is possible in A Tribe Called Judah. Her film set a new box office record in Nigeria by avoiding direct to Netflix/streamer distribution and staying true to African audiences. The film tells the story of how a single mother and her five sons navigate poverty in Lagos. It was later licensed to stream on Amazon Prime Video after it made history at the box office in Nigeria.

    Other film-makers like Omoni Oboli, whose approach centres the Nigerian masses, has turned to YouTube. She tells Nigerian stories while resisting the exploitation that can often come with signing a Netflix deal.



    Read more:
    The unique strategy Netflix deployed to reach 90 million worldwide subscribers

    These projects offer an alternative. As Netflix expands, African creative workers and cultural policymakers must protect the narrative integrity of African stories and resist the economic exploitation of African film-makers. Productions can capture the nuances of African stories while representing African languages and cultures with respect and dignity – without selling out to western values.

    Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix gives African film a platform – but the cultural price is high – https://theconversation.com/netflix-gives-african-film-a-platform-but-the-cultural-price-is-high-259252

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Netflix gives African film a platform – but the cultural price is high

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed, Assistant Professor of Communication, Cornell University

    Netflix began its Africa operations in South Africa in 2016. When the US streaming giant announced it was setting up shop in Nigeria in 2020, many west African film-makers, writers, artists and media audiences were jubilant.

    Finally, west Africa’s creativity and brilliance would be formally recognised on the world stage. Netflix Naija’s purpose was to produce local content for Netflix just like Netflix South Africa and later Netflix Kenya.



    Read more:
    Netflix Naija: creative freedom in Nigeria’s emerging digital space?

    Some film-makers have been wary of US cultural imperialism happening through the market dominance of Netflix and other US streamers. Others have rushed to the streamer to sign deals that will gain their films and TV shows a global audience.

    Netflix’s interest in African stories comes with a colonial power dynamic that research and scholarship has not fully explored. As a scholar of media and communication, I recently examined the effect US streamers are having on the stories being told in films in Nigeria and Ghana.

    In my study, I argue that despite the growing global interest in African pop culture, African creative workers need to be careful about interest from global conglomerates. We can’t talk about African cinemas going global without paying attention to how Hollywood’s colonial relationship with Africa has shaped and influenced what African filmmakers believe will sell globally.



    Read more:
    Black Panther, Wakanda Forever and the problem with Hollywood – an African perspective

    What price is being paid to appeal to global audiences? Film-makers might focus so much on the western gaze that they lose focus on telling African stories authentically and respectfully.

    In my study, I analyse various films including the Ghanaian film Azali and the Nigerian movie Lionheart to argue that that’s exactly what’s happening.

    Dancing to the tune of the west

    Despite the existence of thriving African film and TV industries before the advent of streaming technologies, we are seeing a replication of what I call the everydayness of colonialism in the area of media representations of the continent.

    Here, African filmmakers and producers find themselves jumping through hoops to tell stories that are “fit” to be streamed to Netflix’s millions of American, European and global subscribers. Global cosmopolitan audiences are prioritised over African audiences.



    Read more:
    Woman King is set in Benin but filmed in South Africa – in the process it erases real people’s struggles

    African audiences at home and in the diaspora are the reason we have vibrant film industries such as Nollywood to begin with.

    This displacement of African audiences happens both in representation and in access.

    Most African movie audiences do not have access to Netflix and other streaming platforms due to the digital divide and the cost of subscribing. So the target audience shifts to the elite, both African and global, who can afford to stream.

    Azali and Lionheart

    Ghana and Nigeria’s film industries were developed by artists who wanted to reflect their societies to their communities. I found that with Netflix’s arrival, there is a danger of disrupting and undoing this important work.

    The intervention of US streamers has led to the development of glossier versions of Africa. They are universal enough to be consumed by anyone, anywhere in the world, even if it means sacrificing the integrity of stories to achieve this global appeal.

    In Azali, for example, I found that the film sacrificed authentic language and geographical accuracy to tell a story for a western audience.

    Azali explores the themes of child marriage, child-trafficking and rural-urban migration in Ghana. Here, a film about the Dagbamba was set in the town of Zebilla, where Dagbanli is not the dominant language. The film cast non-Dagbanli speakers in major roles to speak a language they neither understood nor had any proficiency in. If Dagbamba had been centred as the primary audience of the movie, this cultural indignity might not have happened.

    Lionheart, though star-studded, departed from traditional Nollywood narrative conventions. The film tells the story of a wealthy Nigerian family and the quest of a young woman to take control of the family business. The movie had high production values and told a story that would be considered universally relatable. However, it was disqualified in its bid for an Oscar nomination in the Best International Feature Film category because of its majority English dialogue. Despite appealing to Netflix in the area of production quality and storyline, African film-makers were still punished by the Academy.

    Nigeria and Ghana’s film industries have traditionally told a wide variety of African stories. Netflix’s arrival is reducing African stories to stories about the elite and for the global cosmopolitan elite.

    Stories about the majority of Africans are being erased. Africa becomes a backdrop to tell stories about the elite class.

    In my study, I argue that narrative construction is an important part of identity and that when external factors begin to determine how African stories are told, it distorts the image of Africa for Africans and raises questions of cultural sovereignty.

    Moving forward

    It is refreshing to see African cultures appreciated on a global scale. But this shouldn’t erase narratives about the African masses and working communities.

    There are film-makers that are resisting the Netflix canon. Nigerian actress and producer Funke Akindele shows that this is possible in A Tribe Called Judah. Her film set a new box office record in Nigeria by avoiding direct to Netflix/streamer distribution and staying true to African audiences. The film tells the story of how a single mother and her five sons navigate poverty in Lagos. It was later licensed to stream on Amazon Prime Video after it made history at the box office in Nigeria.

    Other film-makers like Omoni Oboli, whose approach centres the Nigerian masses, has turned to YouTube. She tells Nigerian stories while resisting the exploitation that can often come with signing a Netflix deal.



    Read more:
    The unique strategy Netflix deployed to reach 90 million worldwide subscribers

    These projects offer an alternative. As Netflix expands, African creative workers and cultural policymakers must protect the narrative integrity of African stories and resist the economic exploitation of African film-makers. Productions can capture the nuances of African stories while representing African languages and cultures with respect and dignity – without selling out to western values.

    Wunpini Fatimata Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix gives African film a platform – but the cultural price is high – https://theconversation.com/netflix-gives-african-film-a-platform-but-the-cultural-price-is-high-259252

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Detty December started as a Nigerian cultural moment. Now it’s spreading across the continent – and minting money

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Nnamdi O. Madichie, Professor of Marketing & Entrepreneurship, University of Kigali

    Festivals like Carnival Calabar in Nigeria abound throughout the year-end parties across west Africa and beyond. Akintomiwaao/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Every December in Nigeria and Ghana a giant party takes place, unfolding in a whirlwind of concerts, festivals, weddings, art shows, dress-ups, meet-ups and travel. Locals and diaspora west Africans returning from overseas come together to create Detty December, a festive event stretching from mid-December to the new year.

    Detty is a playful term for “dirty” in the regional Pidgin language and “Detty December” is a term commonly believed to have been coined by Afropop star Mr Eazi in 2016. It means letting loose and indulging in some fun and revelry.

    Major events headlined by local and international music stars punctuate Detty December. In Nigeria events range from Flytime Fest in Lagos to Carnival Calabar, which showcases cultural heritage. In Ghana, festivals like AfroFuture and Afro Nation attract global celebrities and influencers as well as returning citizens.

    But this isn’t just a holiday fling. Propelled by youthful energy and cultural innovation, it’s an economic phenomenon. And it represents a shift in Africa’s urban landscape and its relationship with the rest of the world.

    Detty December now stands as a pillar of Africa’s creative economy, which has built on the global popularity of music from the continent, from Afrobeats to amapiano.

    As marketing and entrepreneurship lecturers with an eye on the creative industries, we’ve researched Detty December and believe it’s a cultural tourism phenomenon with the potential to spread across the continent. In fact, it’s already begun to do so.

    Nigeria: the economic power of Detty December

    Despite infrastructure challenges, places like Lagos are new cultural epicentres. During Detty December the city becomes a carnival of reunions and celebrations. “I Just Got Backs” (IJGBs) return, music spills from every bar and events pop up daily.

    Once simply a cultural moment, Detty December has rapidly become a powerful economic engine. It makes a big impact on hospitality, entertainment, tourism and local businesses.

    In Lagos alone, the 2024 festivities generated an estimated US$71.6 million in state revenue. Hotels contributed US$44 million and short-term rentals added US$30 million.

    Nationally, the impact is even more staggering. Detty December injected over US$220 million into Nigeria’s economy in 2023.

    A major driver of this growth is tourism. An estimated 1.2 million visitors flocked to Lagos in December 2024. Nearly 90% of these were diaspora Nigerians.

    Afrobeats star Wizkid’s Made in Lagos concert alone pulled in nearly US$650,000 in ticket sales. New song releases on Fridays have become features of the season.

    Beyond direct spending, Detty December creates temporary and permanent jobs and bolsters small businesses.

    Ghana: December in GH

    The government of neighbouring Ghana has recognised this potential, strategically branding its festive season December in GH. This initiative leverages cultural tourism for substantial economic gain. The country even takes measures like visa-on-arrival in December to encourage visitors.

    This builds on cultural tourism successes like the 2019 Year of Return campaign. In 2023, December in GH reportedly attracted about 115,000 participants.

    Even in a challenging economic climate, Detty December continues to thrive. This indicates a desire for cultural connection and a much-needed escape, especially among the continent’s youth and its global diaspora communities.

    South Africa: Ke Dezemba

    From Flytime in Lagos and AfroNation in Accra to Alte Sounds in Kigali and the vibrant December nightlife in Mombasa or Johannesburg’s rooftop party events, African cities have become seasonal epicentres for cultural consumption.

    “Ke Dezemba” is a term used in South Africa to describe the festive season. It’s a vibrant and celebratory term that’s often associated with summer holidays, braaiing (barbecuing) and social gatherings. It could become the branding of the country’s own Detty December.

    South Africa’s global profile has been raised during its 2025 presidency of the G20. Adopting its own version of Detty December could continue to amplify Brand South Africa. It could show off the country’s vibrancy, creativity, hospitality and potential for investment.

    Aligning cultural celebration with global visibility could reframe a season of revelry into a strategic cultural and economic asset. For South Africa, this could inject capital into the tourism sector, boosting hospitality, transport and ancillary services.



    Read more:
    Culture can build a better world: four key issues on Africa’s G20 agenda

    Beyond direct tourism, the spotlight on South African art and culture during this period could make a lasting impact on the creative economy, fostering growth and job creation.

    Physical celebration could be digitally amplified to make a lasting impression.

    A notable example is Spotify’s unveiling of its Detty December hub. The music streaming service intends celebrating the festive season across west Africa and South Africa with playlists of party tracks.

    Spotify’s Phiona Okumu explains:

    Detty December is a special time for our users in west Africa, and Ke Dezemba symbolises South Africa’s spirit of celebration.

    How to make it work

    The lessons from west African cities suggest that cultural economies thrive with:

    • flexible governance

    • inclusive participation

    • engaged diasporas

    • innovative business models.

    For Nigeria’s Detty December model to be sustainable it would require strategic policy support, urban planning integration and investment in creative infrastructure.

    A group of diasporans in Ghana at the AfroFuture festival.
    Fquasie/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Funding models such as memberships and sponsorships are crucial for the longevity of music festivals. Policy support and infrastructure investment are necessary to unlock the full potential of the creative sector.

    Cultural tourism, powerfully embodied by Detty December, is emerging as a viable economic strategy for African cities. This signals a broader recognition of culture’s economic power. It offers a compelling canvas for economic development and nation branding.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Detty December started as a Nigerian cultural moment. Now it’s spreading across the continent – and minting money – https://theconversation.com/detty-december-started-as-a-nigerian-cultural-moment-now-its-spreading-across-the-continent-and-minting-money-258949

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Detty December started as a Nigerian cultural moment. Now it’s spreading across the continent – and minting money

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Nnamdi O. Madichie, Professor of Marketing & Entrepreneurship, University of Kigali

    Festivals like Carnival Calabar in Nigeria abound throughout the year-end parties across west Africa and beyond. Akintomiwaao/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Every December in Nigeria and Ghana a giant party takes place, unfolding in a whirlwind of concerts, festivals, weddings, art shows, dress-ups, meet-ups and travel. Locals and diaspora west Africans returning from overseas come together to create Detty December, a festive event stretching from mid-December to the new year.

    Detty is a playful term for “dirty” in the regional Pidgin language and “Detty December” is a term commonly believed to have been coined by Afropop star Mr Eazi in 2016. It means letting loose and indulging in some fun and revelry.

    Major events headlined by local and international music stars punctuate Detty December. In Nigeria events range from Flytime Fest in Lagos to Carnival Calabar, which showcases cultural heritage. In Ghana, festivals like AfroFuture and Afro Nation attract global celebrities and influencers as well as returning citizens.

    But this isn’t just a holiday fling. Propelled by youthful energy and cultural innovation, it’s an economic phenomenon. And it represents a shift in Africa’s urban landscape and its relationship with the rest of the world.

    Detty December now stands as a pillar of Africa’s creative economy, which has built on the global popularity of music from the continent, from Afrobeats to amapiano.

    As marketing and entrepreneurship lecturers with an eye on the creative industries, we’ve researched Detty December and believe it’s a cultural tourism phenomenon with the potential to spread across the continent. In fact, it’s already begun to do so.

    Nigeria: the economic power of Detty December

    Despite infrastructure challenges, places like Lagos are new cultural epicentres. During Detty December the city becomes a carnival of reunions and celebrations. “I Just Got Backs” (IJGBs) return, music spills from every bar and events pop up daily.

    Once simply a cultural moment, Detty December has rapidly become a powerful economic engine. It makes a big impact on hospitality, entertainment, tourism and local businesses.

    In Lagos alone, the 2024 festivities generated an estimated US$71.6 million in state revenue. Hotels contributed US$44 million and short-term rentals added US$30 million.

    Nationally, the impact is even more staggering. Detty December injected over US$220 million into Nigeria’s economy in 2023.

    A major driver of this growth is tourism. An estimated 1.2 million visitors flocked to Lagos in December 2024. Nearly 90% of these were diaspora Nigerians.

    Afrobeats star Wizkid’s Made in Lagos concert alone pulled in nearly US$650,000 in ticket sales. New song releases on Fridays have become features of the season.

    Beyond direct spending, Detty December creates temporary and permanent jobs and bolsters small businesses.

    Ghana: December in GH

    The government of neighbouring Ghana has recognised this potential, strategically branding its festive season December in GH. This initiative leverages cultural tourism for substantial economic gain. The country even takes measures like visa-on-arrival in December to encourage visitors.

    This builds on cultural tourism successes like the 2019 Year of Return campaign. In 2023, December in GH reportedly attracted about 115,000 participants.

    Even in a challenging economic climate, Detty December continues to thrive. This indicates a desire for cultural connection and a much-needed escape, especially among the continent’s youth and its global diaspora communities.

    South Africa: Ke Dezemba

    From Flytime in Lagos and AfroNation in Accra to Alte Sounds in Kigali and the vibrant December nightlife in Mombasa or Johannesburg’s rooftop party events, African cities have become seasonal epicentres for cultural consumption.

    “Ke Dezemba” is a term used in South Africa to describe the festive season. It’s a vibrant and celebratory term that’s often associated with summer holidays, braaiing (barbecuing) and social gatherings. It could become the branding of the country’s own Detty December.

    South Africa’s global profile has been raised during its 2025 presidency of the G20. Adopting its own version of Detty December could continue to amplify Brand South Africa. It could show off the country’s vibrancy, creativity, hospitality and potential for investment.

    Aligning cultural celebration with global visibility could reframe a season of revelry into a strategic cultural and economic asset. For South Africa, this could inject capital into the tourism sector, boosting hospitality, transport and ancillary services.



    Read more:
    Culture can build a better world: four key issues on Africa’s G20 agenda

    Beyond direct tourism, the spotlight on South African art and culture during this period could make a lasting impact on the creative economy, fostering growth and job creation.

    Physical celebration could be digitally amplified to make a lasting impression.

    A notable example is Spotify’s unveiling of its Detty December hub. The music streaming service intends celebrating the festive season across west Africa and South Africa with playlists of party tracks.

    Spotify’s Phiona Okumu explains:

    Detty December is a special time for our users in west Africa, and Ke Dezemba symbolises South Africa’s spirit of celebration.

    How to make it work

    The lessons from west African cities suggest that cultural economies thrive with:

    • flexible governance

    • inclusive participation

    • engaged diasporas

    • innovative business models.

    For Nigeria’s Detty December model to be sustainable it would require strategic policy support, urban planning integration and investment in creative infrastructure.

    A group of diasporans in Ghana at the AfroFuture festival.
    Fquasie/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Funding models such as memberships and sponsorships are crucial for the longevity of music festivals. Policy support and infrastructure investment are necessary to unlock the full potential of the creative sector.

    Cultural tourism, powerfully embodied by Detty December, is emerging as a viable economic strategy for African cities. This signals a broader recognition of culture’s economic power. It offers a compelling canvas for economic development and nation branding.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Detty December started as a Nigerian cultural moment. Now it’s spreading across the continent – and minting money – https://theconversation.com/detty-december-started-as-a-nigerian-cultural-moment-now-its-spreading-across-the-continent-and-minting-money-258949

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Can academics use AI to write journal papers? What the guidelines say

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sumaya Laher, Professor, University of the Witwatersrand

    Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to “intelligent machines and algorithms that can reason and adapt based on sets of rules and environments which mimic human intelligence”. This field is evolving rapidly and the education sector, for one, is abuzz with discussion on AI use for writing.

    This matters not just for academics, but for anyone relying on trustworthy information, from journalists and policymakers to educators and the public. Ensuring transparency in how AI is used protects the credibility of all published knowledge.



    Read more:
    AI in education: what those buzzwords mean

    In education and research, AI can generate text, improve writing style, and even analyse data. It saves time and resources by allowing quick summarising of work, language editing and reference checking. It also holds potential for enhancing scholarly work and even inspiring new ideas.

    Equally AI is able to generate entire pieces of work. Sometimes it’s difficult to distinguish original work written by an individual and work generated by AI.

    This is a serious concern in the academic world – for universities, researchers, lecturers and students. Some uses of AI are seen as acceptable and others are not (or not yet).



    Read more:
    AI can be a danger to students – 3 things universities must do

    As editor and editorial board member of several journals, and in my capacity as a researcher and professor of psychology, I have grappled with what counts as acceptable use of AI in academic writing. I looked to various published guidelines:

    The guidelines are unanimous that AI tools cannot be listed as co-authors or take responsibility for the content. Authors remain fully responsible for verifying the accuracy, ethical use and integrity of all AI-influenced content. Routine assistance does not need citation, but any substantive AI-generated content must be clearly referenced.

    Let’s unpack this a bit more.

    Assisted versus generated content

    In understanding AI use in academic writing, it’s important to distinguish between AI-assisted content and AI-generated content.

    AI-assisted content refers to work that is predominantly written by an individual but has been improved with the aid of AI tools. For example, an author might use AI to assist with grammar checks, enhance sentence clarity, or provide style suggestions. The author remains in control, and the AI merely acts as a tool to polish the final product.

    This kind of assistance is generally accepted by most publishers as well as the Committee on Publication Ethics, without the need for formal disclosure. That’s as long as the work remains original and the integrity of the research is upheld.

    AI-generated content is produced by the AI itself. This could mean that the AI tool generates significant portions of text, or even entire sections, based on detailed instructions (prompts) provided by the author.

    This raises ethical concerns, especially regarding originality, accuracy and authorship. Generative AI draws its content from various sources such as web scraping, public datasets, code repositories and user-generated content – basically any content that it is able to access. You can never be sure about the authenticity of the work. AI “hallucinations” are common. Generative AI might be plagiarising someone else’s work or infringing on copyright and you won’t know.



    Read more:
    What are AI hallucinations? Why AIs sometimes make things up

    Thus, for AI-generated content, authors are required to make clear and explicit disclosures. In many cases, this type of content may face restrictions. Publishers may even reject it outright, as outlined in the Committee on Publication Ethics guidelines.

    What’s allowed and what’s not

    Based on my readings of the guidelines, I offer some practical tips for using AI in academic writing. These are fairly simple and could be applicable across disciplines.

    • The guidelines all say AI tools can be used for routine tasks like improving grammar, revising sentence structure, or assisting with literature searches. These applications do not require specific acknowledgement.

    • Across the guidelines reviewed, AI generated content is not allowed unless there are clear reasons why this was necessary for the research and the content is clearly marked and referenced as such. Thus, depending on how AI is used, it must be referenced in the manuscript. This could be in the literature review, or in the methods or results section.

    • Sage and the Committee on Publication Ethics emphasise that authors must disclose when AI-generated content is used by citing this appropriately. There are different conventions for citing AI use but all seem to agree that the name of the generative tool used, the date accessed and the prompt used should be cited. This level of transparency is necessary to uphold the credibility of academic work.

    • Other aspects linked to AI assistance like correcting code, generating tables or figures, reducing word count or checking on analyses cannot be referenced directly in the body of the manuscript. In line with current best practice recommendations, this should be indicated at the end of the manuscript.

    • Authors are responsible for checking the accuracy of any AI content, whether AI assisted or AI generated, ensuring it’s free from bias, plagiarism, and potential copyright infringements.

    The final word (for now)

    AI tools can undoubtedly enhance the academic writing process, but their use must be approached with transparency, caution, and respect for ethical standards.

    Authors must remain vigilant in maintaining academic integrity, particularly when AI is involved. Authors should verify the accuracy and appropriateness of AI-generated content, ensuring that it doesn’t compromise the originality or validity of their work.



    Read more:
    South African university students use AI to help them understand – not to avoid work

    There have been excellent suggestions as to when the declaration of AI should be mandatory, optional and unnecessary. If unsure, the best advice would be to include the use of any form of AI (assisted or generated) in the acknowledgement.

    It is very likely that these recommendations will be revised in due course as AI continues to evolve. But it is equally important that we start somewhere. AI tools are here to stay. Let’s deal with it constructively and collaboratively.

    Sumaya Laher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can academics use AI to write journal papers? What the guidelines say – https://theconversation.com/can-academics-use-ai-to-write-journal-papers-what-the-guidelines-say-258824

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Women trapped with abusers: South Africa’s COVID lockdowns exposed serious protection gaps

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Marinei Herselman, Lecturer, University of Fort Hare

    The unintended consequences of measures introduced to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus from 2020 to 2022 have been studied extensively. Research in South Africa shows that some of these measures added to social ills, such as unemployment and poverty.

    Another impact of “lockdown” was on gender-based violence. The government’s Gender-Based Violence Command Centre reported over 120,000 cases within the first three weeks of lockdown.

    In the year 2019-20, 53,293 sexual offences were reported, an average of 146 per day. This was up from 52,420 in 2018-19. Most of these were cases of rape. The police recorded 42,289 rapes in 2019-20, up from 41,583 in 2018-19, an average of 116 rapes each day. Further, a total of 2,695 women were murdered in South Africa in 2019-20. This means a woman is murdered every three hours.

    The lockdown measures required people to remain indoors. Schools and non-essential establishments like restaurants were closed. Travelling internationally and between provinces was prohibited.

    Research showed that the lockdown measures trapped many women and children in abusive environments. The gender-based violence incidents highlighted gaps in support services and underscored the critical role of social workers in crisis situations.

    In a recent paper, we described our study of the impact the lockdown measures had on gender-based violence in Matatiele, a small town in South Africa’s Eastern Cape, one of the poorest regions in the country.

    The study highlighted the need to integrate gender-based violence support services into emergency plans to ensure continuity of care in times of crisis. In addition, the challenges faced by social workers during the pandemic showed systemic weaknesses in the support infrastructure.



    Read more:
    South African women face exclusion from society due to gender-based violence – how they’re fighting back

    We recommend prioritising gender-based violence services, expanding the social work workforce, and ensuring accessible, effective support mechanisms to safeguard survivors. By engaging local and provincial partners through cross-sector collaboration, South Africa can build a more equitable society and empower survivors during future emergencies.

    Interviewing survivors of violence

    Our findings were based on interviews with 30 survivors of gender-based violence and five social workers at the Thuthuzela Care Centre in Matatiele, which provides support for rape survivors. Twenty-four of the survivors (80%) were women and six (20%) were males. The participants were aged 18-35.

    We found that 63.3% of survivors experienced gender-based violence differently during the pandemic, primarily because access to support services was reduced. Key findings were that:

    • survivors found it difficult to reach police stations, hospitals and support centres

    • a lack of transport and staffing made access to services even more difficult than usual

    • survivors were often imprisoned with their abusers, making it nearly impossible to escape the abusive environment

    • the closure of schools and community centres destroyed additional refuges and support networks

    • social workers reported that remote counselling methods, such as telephone calls, were less effective

    • poor internet connection and the inability to meet in person limited the quality of psychosocial support provided

    • many perpetrators faced job losses and economic hardships; this led to increased stress and violence.

    Our findings highlight how public health crises can worsen existing social vulnerabilities. The COVID-19 pandemic starkly illustrated the vulnerability of survivors during crises and the role of social workers in providing support.



    Read more:
    Spoken word poetry challenges gender-based violence in Namibia

    Women’s experiences

    As shown in the table, some participants said their experiences of abuse were the same before and during COVID-19. This might be because a participant was abused during the pandemic and had not been a victim before.

    Most of the research participants said their experience of gender-based violence was different from how it had been before COVID-19. Asked to explain, most of them responded in similar ways.

    One of the women said:

    I have difficulty escaping my abuser.

    Another said:

    I struggled to sleep, and I was anxious for a long time. I accepted the situation and told myself that I will be fine. I was abused by a stranger, which made it difficult for me to get justice but I told myself that abuse is something that you cannot run away from.

    Lack of sleep is a common challenge for many survivors of gender-based violence.

    One of the male survivors in the study, a married man, spoke of the difficulty of dealing with societal norms which are rooted in patriarchy. There’s a local saying which captures the typical attitude: indoda yokwenyani ayikhali (“a real man does not cry”).

    There appeared to be a general sense that gender-based violence would not change, so women and men just accepted and normalised it.



    Read more:
    Men abused by women don’t all fight back. Some believe a strong man is non-violent – South African study

    Next steps

    An effective response to gender-based violence requires sufficient staffing of response facilities. There is also a need for robust communication tools and training to handle remote support scenarios as happened during COVID.

    Gender-based violence is a serious problem that needs a multi-faceted response. Governments, and non-profit, non-governmental and
    civil society organisations must work together. This will help in achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal 5 on gender equality. Gender equality is a fundamental human right. It is a foundation for a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable world. While some progress has been made in recent decades, the world is not on track to achieve gender equality by 2030.

    To lessen the impact of future crises on survivors of gender-based violence, several steps are essential:

    • the government must recognise support services as critical in emergencies; social workers must be classified as essential personnel so that they can continue their work without restrictions

    • essential services such as safe shelters, mental health support and legal aid must be in place, and healthcare services must be fully available, well-equipped and well-staffed

    • the government must expand and train the social worker workforce, and provide specialised training for any crisis situation in the future

    • there is need to develop support channels, including online platforms, helplines and mobile outreach programmes

    • investing in reliable communication technologies and transportation can help people reach support services

    • long-term strategies should focus on reducing gender inequalities and challenging patriarchal norms.

    Bongeka Zawani, a master’s student at the University of Fort Hare, carried out the study this article is based on.

    Marinei Herselman and Bongeka Zwani received funding from the University of Fort Hare GMRDC for this study.

    – ref. Women trapped with abusers: South Africa’s COVID lockdowns exposed serious protection gaps – https://theconversation.com/women-trapped-with-abusers-south-africas-covid-lockdowns-exposed-serious-protection-gaps-243198

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

    The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has raged since April 2023. It’s turned Sudan into the site of one of the world’s most catastrophic humanitarian and displacement crises.

    At least 150,000 people have been killed. More than 14 million have been displaced, with over 3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Once a vibrant capital city, Khartoum is now a “burnt-out shell”.

    This devastating war, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political and economic tensions, has been compounded by what international and regional actors have done and failed to do. As Amnesty International notes, the international response remains “woefully inadequate”.

    The problem lies in the fact that external involvement has not been neutral. Instead of halting the conflict, many external players have complicated it. In some cases, international interventions have escalated it.

    More than 10 countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia have been drawn into Sudan’s war. This has turned it into a proxy conflict that reflects the interests of external actors, such as Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

    Several actors have taken sides.

    Saudi Arabia, for instance, backs the Sudanese army. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Egypt, citing historical ties, backs the army. For their part, Ethiopia and Eritrea reportedly support the paramilitary group. Chad has been accused of facilitating arms shipments to the Rapid Support Forces via its eastern airports. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Iran have also been linked to diplomatic and military support to Sudan’s army.

    These geopolitical entanglements have made peace nearly impossible, deepening the conflict instead of resolving it.

    I have studied Africa’s governance failures for more than 30 years, from military elites and coups to state capture and political instability. Based on this, my view is that Sudan’s conflict cannot be resolved without serious international commitment to neutrality and peace.



    Read more:
    Sudan’s peace mediation should be led by the African Union: 3 reasons why

    The involvement of foreign actors on opposing sides must be reversed. International involvement must be premised on helping the Sudanese people develop the capacity to resolve governance problems themselves.

    For this to happen, regional diplomacy must be stepped up. The African Union must assert its legitimacy and take the lead in addressing this challenging crisis. It can do this by putting pressure on member states to ensure that any ceasefire agreements are enforced.

    The East African Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development can provide assistance in securing a peace agreement and ensuring it’s enforced. Members of these continental organisations can encourage external actors to limit their intervention in Sudan to activities that promote democratic governance and sustainable development.

    The African Union

    The African Union should play a central role in bringing peace to Sudan. But its absence has been conspicuous.

    Despite adopting the “African solutions to African problems” mantra, the African Union has neither held Sudan’s warlords accountable nor put in place adequate civilian protection measures.

    First, it could have worked closely with the UN to deploy a mission to Sudan with a mandate to protect civilians, monitor human rights (especially the rights of women and girls), assist in the return of all displaced persons and prevent any further attacks on civilians.

    Second, the African Union could have sent an expert group to investigate human rights violations, especially sexual violence. The results could have been submitted to the union’s Peace and Security Council for further action.

    Third, the African Union could have worked closely with regional and international actors, including the Arab League. This would ensure a unified approach to the conflict, based on the interests of Sudanese people for peace and development.

    Finally, the AU could have addressed the root causes of Sudan’s conflicts, which include extreme poverty, inequality, political exclusion and economic marginalisation.

    The African Union could also make use of the insights and knowledge gleaned by African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who have attempted to mediate, but have failed. The AU should also use the political expertise of elder statesmen, such as Thabo Mbeki, Moussa Faki and Olusegun Obasanjo, to help address the conflict and humanitarian crisis.

    The United Arab Emirates

    The UAE is alleged to back the paramilitary troops in the war. In recent years, the UAE has become increasingly involved in African conflicts. It has supported various factions to conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel region and Libya.

    Its increased involvement in Africa is driven by several strategic interests. These include fighting terrorism, securing maritime routes, and expanding its trade and influence.



    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE

    In 2009, the UAE helped Sudan mediate its border conflict with Chad. The UAE supported the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, as well as Sudan’s transitional military council.

    In 2021, the UAE signed a strategic partnership with Sudan to modernise its political institutions and return the country to the international community. The UAE has stated that it has taken a neutral position in the present conflict. However, on 6 March 2025, Sudan brought a case against the UAE to the International Court of Justice. It accused the UAE of complicity in genocide, alleging that the UAE “has been arming the RSF with the aim of wiping out the non-Arab Massalit population of West Darfur.”

    The United States

    During his first term, US president Donald Trump spearheaded the Abraham Accords. These agreements were aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Sudan. Subsequently, Sudan was removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

    The accords appeared to have brought Khartoum closer to Washington. They provided avenues for the type of engagement that could have placed it in good stead when Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

    However, Sudan’s internal political and economic instability, including the present civil war, has complicated the situation.

    The Abraham Accords were a significant foreign policy achievement for Trump. A peaceful, democratically governed, and economically stable and prosperous Sudan could serve as the foundation for Trump’s “circle of peace” in the Middle East.

    But Trump and his administration are preoccupied with other domestic and foreign policy priorities. During his May 2025 visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump did not officially address the conflict in Sudan. Instead, he placed emphasis on securing business deals and investments.

    The European Union

    The European Union has strongly condemned the violence and the atrocities committed during the war in Sudan, especially against children and women. The organisation has appealed for an immediate and lasting ceasefire while noting that Sudan faces the “most catastrophic humanitarian crisis of the 21st century”.

    Unfortunately, member countries will remain preoccupied with helping Ukraine, especially given the growing uncertainty in Washington’s relationship with the authorities in Kyiv.

    The preoccupation and focus of the EU and the US on Gaza, Ukraine and Iran may, however, be underestimating the geopolitical risks Sudan’s war is generating.

    A peaceful and democratically governed Sudan can contribute to peace not just in the region, but also in many other parts of the world.

    What now?

    To end Sudan’s war and prevent future ones, international and African actors must do more than issue statements. They must act coherently, collectively and with genuine commitment to the Sudanese people’s right to peace, democratic governance and sustainable development.

    Democracy and the rule of law are key to peaceful coexistence and sustainable development in Sudan. However, establishing and sustaining institutions that enhance and support democracy is the job of the Sudanese people. The external community can provide the financial support that Sudan is likely to need. It can also support the strengthening of electoral systems, civic education and citizen trust in public institutions.

    John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them – https://theconversation.com/sudan-foreign-interests-are-deepening-a-devastating-war-only-regional-diplomacy-can-stop-them-259824

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

    The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has raged since April 2023. It’s turned Sudan into the site of one of the world’s most catastrophic humanitarian and displacement crises.

    At least 150,000 people have been killed. More than 14 million have been displaced, with over 3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Once a vibrant capital city, Khartoum is now a “burnt-out shell”.

    This devastating war, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political and economic tensions, has been compounded by what international and regional actors have done and failed to do. As Amnesty International notes, the international response remains “woefully inadequate”.

    The problem lies in the fact that external involvement has not been neutral. Instead of halting the conflict, many external players have complicated it. In some cases, international interventions have escalated it.

    More than 10 countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia have been drawn into Sudan’s war. This has turned it into a proxy conflict that reflects the interests of external actors, such as Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

    Several actors have taken sides.

    Saudi Arabia, for instance, backs the Sudanese army. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Egypt, citing historical ties, backs the army. For their part, Ethiopia and Eritrea reportedly support the paramilitary group. Chad has been accused of facilitating arms shipments to the Rapid Support Forces via its eastern airports. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Iran have also been linked to diplomatic and military support to Sudan’s army.

    These geopolitical entanglements have made peace nearly impossible, deepening the conflict instead of resolving it.

    I have studied Africa’s governance failures for more than 30 years, from military elites and coups to state capture and political instability. Based on this, my view is that Sudan’s conflict cannot be resolved without serious international commitment to neutrality and peace.



    Read more:
    Sudan’s peace mediation should be led by the African Union: 3 reasons why

    The involvement of foreign actors on opposing sides must be reversed. International involvement must be premised on helping the Sudanese people develop the capacity to resolve governance problems themselves.

    For this to happen, regional diplomacy must be stepped up. The African Union must assert its legitimacy and take the lead in addressing this challenging crisis. It can do this by putting pressure on member states to ensure that any ceasefire agreements are enforced.

    The East African Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development can provide assistance in securing a peace agreement and ensuring it’s enforced. Members of these continental organisations can encourage external actors to limit their intervention in Sudan to activities that promote democratic governance and sustainable development.

    The African Union

    The African Union should play a central role in bringing peace to Sudan. But its absence has been conspicuous.

    Despite adopting the “African solutions to African problems” mantra, the African Union has neither held Sudan’s warlords accountable nor put in place adequate civilian protection measures.

    First, it could have worked closely with the UN to deploy a mission to Sudan with a mandate to protect civilians, monitor human rights (especially the rights of women and girls), assist in the return of all displaced persons and prevent any further attacks on civilians.

    Second, the African Union could have sent an expert group to investigate human rights violations, especially sexual violence. The results could have been submitted to the union’s Peace and Security Council for further action.

    Third, the African Union could have worked closely with regional and international actors, including the Arab League. This would ensure a unified approach to the conflict, based on the interests of Sudanese people for peace and development.

    Finally, the AU could have addressed the root causes of Sudan’s conflicts, which include extreme poverty, inequality, political exclusion and economic marginalisation.

    The African Union could also make use of the insights and knowledge gleaned by African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who have attempted to mediate, but have failed. The AU should also use the political expertise of elder statesmen, such as Thabo Mbeki, Moussa Faki and Olusegun Obasanjo, to help address the conflict and humanitarian crisis.

    The United Arab Emirates

    The UAE is alleged to back the paramilitary troops in the war. In recent years, the UAE has become increasingly involved in African conflicts. It has supported various factions to conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel region and Libya.

    Its increased involvement in Africa is driven by several strategic interests. These include fighting terrorism, securing maritime routes, and expanding its trade and influence.



    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE

    In 2009, the UAE helped Sudan mediate its border conflict with Chad. The UAE supported the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, as well as Sudan’s transitional military council.

    In 2021, the UAE signed a strategic partnership with Sudan to modernise its political institutions and return the country to the international community. The UAE has stated that it has taken a neutral position in the present conflict. However, on 6 March 2025, Sudan brought a case against the UAE to the International Court of Justice. It accused the UAE of complicity in genocide, alleging that the UAE “has been arming the RSF with the aim of wiping out the non-Arab Massalit population of West Darfur.”

    The United States

    During his first term, US president Donald Trump spearheaded the Abraham Accords. These agreements were aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Sudan. Subsequently, Sudan was removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

    The accords appeared to have brought Khartoum closer to Washington. They provided avenues for the type of engagement that could have placed it in good stead when Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

    However, Sudan’s internal political and economic instability, including the present civil war, has complicated the situation.

    The Abraham Accords were a significant foreign policy achievement for Trump. A peaceful, democratically governed, and economically stable and prosperous Sudan could serve as the foundation for Trump’s “circle of peace” in the Middle East.

    But Trump and his administration are preoccupied with other domestic and foreign policy priorities. During his May 2025 visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump did not officially address the conflict in Sudan. Instead, he placed emphasis on securing business deals and investments.

    The European Union

    The European Union has strongly condemned the violence and the atrocities committed during the war in Sudan, especially against children and women. The organisation has appealed for an immediate and lasting ceasefire while noting that Sudan faces the “most catastrophic humanitarian crisis of the 21st century”.

    Unfortunately, member countries will remain preoccupied with helping Ukraine, especially given the growing uncertainty in Washington’s relationship with the authorities in Kyiv.

    The preoccupation and focus of the EU and the US on Gaza, Ukraine and Iran may, however, be underestimating the geopolitical risks Sudan’s war is generating.

    A peaceful and democratically governed Sudan can contribute to peace not just in the region, but also in many other parts of the world.

    What now?

    To end Sudan’s war and prevent future ones, international and African actors must do more than issue statements. They must act coherently, collectively and with genuine commitment to the Sudanese people’s right to peace, democratic governance and sustainable development.

    Democracy and the rule of law are key to peaceful coexistence and sustainable development in Sudan. However, establishing and sustaining institutions that enhance and support democracy is the job of the Sudanese people. The external community can provide the financial support that Sudan is likely to need. It can also support the strengthening of electoral systems, civic education and citizen trust in public institutions.

    John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them – https://theconversation.com/sudan-foreign-interests-are-deepening-a-devastating-war-only-regional-diplomacy-can-stop-them-259824

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Five prescription drugs that can make it harder to cope with the heat

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

    Some prescription drugs affect our ability to sweat, which is an important cooling mechanism. Doucefleur/ Shutterstock

    As temperatures rise, so does the risk of heat-related illness – especially for people taking certain prescription drugs.

    The body uses several mechanisms to regulate temperature: sweating, blood flow to the skin and fluid balance. But some commonly prescribed drugs interfere with these processes, making it harder to stay cool.

    Here are a few you should know about this summer:

    1. Antidepressants

    Two specific types of antidepressants – selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and tricyclics (TCAs) – may make summer harder to cope with. They could even cause heat intolerance due to how they affect the body’s ability to sweat.

    Both these antidepressants are believed to partly work by affecting neurotransmitter levels in the brain – primarily serotonin and noradrenaline. However, they may also affect other neurotransmitters.

    For instance, TCAs can block acetylcholine, a neurotransmitter important for sweating. This may cause some patients to sweat less. On a hot day, this could make it hard to cool down.

    However, TCAs also increase noradrenaline levels, a neurotransmitter that stimulates sweat glands. This can increase sweating. In fact, both SSRIs and TCAs can increase sweating in users. Data shows up to 14% of antidepressant users experience this side-effect.

    SSRIs may also interfere with the hypothalamus – the brain region that controls body temperature and tells the sweat glands to start producing sweat. But this signal may be affected by the increased serotonin levels.

    Since sweating is a key cooling mechanism, any disruptions to this process can lead to heat-related illness. Excess sweating may also cause dehydration if fluids aren’t replaced.

    2. Antipsychotics

    Antipsychotics are used to treat psychosis, which can occur in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. They do this by blocking the neurotransmitter dopamine – which in turn affects levels of the neurotransmitter serotonin. This can disrupt the hypothalamus’s ability to sense and respond to body temperature changes.

    As a result, someone taking an antipsychotic might not feel overheated or thirsty when it’s hot out. This can cause low blood pressure and reduced heart function. The body then tries to compensate by narrowing the blood vessels and holding in heat. This in turn reduces sweating and makes it harder to cool down properly.

    Additionally, antipsychotics have anticholinergic properties. This means they block the action of acetylcholine, making it harder to sweat.

    3. Heart medications

    Beta-blockers are used to manage heart failure and arrhythmias. They do this by lowering heart rate and reducing how forcefully the heart pumps. But this can limit blood flow to the skin – making it harder for the body to release heat on hot days.

    Diuretics are also commonly used in the treatment of high blood pressure or heart failure. But as these drugs increase urine output, this may lead to dehydration and electrolyte imbalances during hot weather. With less fluid available, the body may struggle to sweat properly. If you become severely dehydrated, you might actually stop feeling thirsty. Blood pressure can also drop, which may cause dizziness or fainting – especially when standing up.

    Various heart medications can increase risk of dehydration in hot weather.
    pics five/ Shutterstock

    Ramipril and losartan, also used to manage blood pressure, can increase the risk of dehydration as well. These drugs block a system in the body that helps control blood pressure, fluid balance and thirst. This may reduce your natural urge to drink, increasing dehydration risk when it’s hot.

    4. Stimulants

    Stimulants – such as the amphetamines used for ADHD – affect many brain chemicals, including dopamine and noradrenaline. This can increase body temperature, boost metabolism and change how the body sweats – all of which can make it harder to cool down, especially when exercising or in hot weather. This can also potentially lead to dehydration, overheating or even heatstroke. Stimulants may also reduce the feeling of tiredness, which can cause people to overexert themselves without realising the danger.

    However, some recent research shows people with ADHD who take stimulants may actually have a lower chance of heat-related illnesses – but larger trials are needed to investigate further. The researchers hypothesise that this protective effect may be due to factors such as lower body weight and users staying hydrated.

    5. Insulin

    Warm temperatures cause the body’s blood vessels to dilate (widen) in order to help us cool off. But this action means insulin is absorbed into the bloodstream faster as there’s enhanced blood flow to the area where insulin is injected – making blood sugar drop more quickly. This can lead to hypoglycemia (low blood glucose level), which may lead to dizziness, shaking, sweating, irritability and even potentially loss of consciousness or seizures.

    Faster insulin absorption can also make it harder for people with diabetes to notice signs of low blood sugar in the heat, since common symptoms may be mistaken for being hot.

    Heat can also degrade insulin, reducing its effectiveness and making it unsafe. This is why insulin should be stored in the fridge until use – especially in summer. Damaged insulin will change appearance – turning cloudy or changing colour.



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    Avoiding heatstroke

    Older adults, people with chronic conditions (especially those with heart or lung disease) and those taking multiple prescription drugs are especially vulnerable to heat-related illnesses.

    Fortunately, there are steps you can take to stay safe during summer if you’re taking one of these common prescription drugs.

    First, check labels for storage instructions. Avoid leaving medications in hot places, such as in cars or on windowsills. Insulin isn’t the only drug affected by heat – inhalers and EpiPens can also malfunction or become less effective.

    Second, stay hydrated when it’s hot – unless your doctor has advised otherwise. Dehydration can actually worsen the effects of many medicines. For example, anti-inflammatory painkillers (such as ibuprofen) are more likely to cause kidney problems and bipolar medicines (including lithium) can become toxic if you’re dehydrated.

    Avoid peak heat hours and stay in cool environments when possible. Watch for warning signs of heat-related illness – such as dizziness, confusion, nausea or excessive sweating.

    Last, don’t stop taking your prescriptions medication without medical advice. If it’s affecting your ability to cope with the heat, speak with your doctor or pharmacist.

    Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Five prescription drugs that can make it harder to cope with the heat – https://theconversation.com/five-prescription-drugs-that-can-make-it-harder-to-cope-with-the-heat-259479

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