The Interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the seven months ended 31 January 2025 were released by the Treasury today.
The January results are reported against forecasts based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2024 (HYEFU 2024), published on 17 December 2024, and the results for the same period for the previous year.
| Year to date | Full Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2025 Actual1 $m |
January 2025 HYEFU 2024 Forecast1 $m |
Variance2 HYEFU 2024 $m |
Variance HYEFU 2024 % |
June 2025 HYEFU 2024 Forecast3 $m |
|
| Core Crown tax revenue | 70,193 | 69,583 | 610 | 0.9 | 120,623 |
| Core Crown revenue | 77,804 | 77,122 | 682 | 0.9 | 134,038 |
| Core Crown expenses | 80,125 | 80,717 | 592 | 0.7 | 144,638 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (5,051) | (4,337) | (714) | (16.5) | (16,610) |
| Net core Crown debt4 | 180,603 | 180,669 | 66 | – | 192,810 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 42.8% | 42.8% | 45.1% | ||
| Gross debt | 203,070 | 195,257 | (7,812) | (4.0) | 206,558 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 48.2% | 46.3% | 48.3% | ||
| OBEGAL excluding ACC (OBEGALx) | (3,669) | (5,041) | 1,372 | 27.2 | (12,868) |
| OBEGAL | (4,994) | (6,233) | 1,239 | 19.9 | (17,317) |
| Operating balance (excluding minority interests) | 1,087 | (2,223) | 3,310 | 148.9 | (10,161) |
| Net worth | 188,883 | 185,654 | 3,229 | 1.7 | 177,492 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 44.8% | 44.0% | 41.5% | ||
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 30 September 2024) of $421,702 million (Source: Stats NZ).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
- Using HYEFU 2024 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2025 of $427,252 million (Source: The Treasury).
- Net core Crown debt excludes the NZS Fund and core Crown advances. Net core Crown debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
Core Crown tax revenue, at $70.2 billion, was $0.6 billion (0.9%) higher than forecast with the largest variance relating to GST being $0.3 billion (1.9%) above forecast.
Core Crown expenses, at $80.1 billion, were $0.6 billion (0.7%) below forecast. This variance is mostly timing in nature and was spread across a range of functional spending areas.
The operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx) was a deficit of $3.7 billion, $1.4 billion less than the forecast deficit. When including the revenue and expenses of ACC, the OBEGAL deficit was $5.0 billion, $1.2 billion less than the forecast deficit.
The operating balance surplus of $1.1 billion was $3.3 billion better than the deficit forecast. This reflected both the favourable OBEGAL result and favourable valuation movements. Net losses on non-financial instruments were $1.6 billion less than forecast (largely owing to a $0.6 billion net actuarial gain on the ACC outstanding claims liability compared to a forecast net loss of $1.0 billion), partly offset by net gains on financial instruments being $0.2 billion above forecast.
The core Crown residual cash deficit of $5.1 billion was $0.7 billion more than the deficit forecast and was largely owing to lower tax receipts.
Net core Crown debt at $180.6 billion (42.8% of GDP) was broadly in line with forecast ($180.7 billion or 42.8% of GDP). While the core Crown residual cash deficit was higher than forecast, its impact on net core Crown debt was more than offset by valuation changes and higher issuance of circulating currency.
Gross debt at $203.1 billion (48.2% of GDP) was $7.8 billion higher than forecast, largely owing to higher than forecast unsettled trades, derivatives in loss and the issuances of Euro Commercial Paper driven by short-term cash requirements. However, this increase in gross debt was broadly offset by a corresponding increase in financial assets, therefore this has not flowed through to the net core Crown debt measure or to net worth.
Net worth at $188.9 billion (44.8% of GDP) was $3.2 billion higher than forecast largely reflecting the operating balance result.
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