Source: RealEstate.co.nz
The New Zealand Property Report: October 2024
Highest October stock levels in a decade, up 26.3% year-on-year
22 months of price stability offers rare certainty for buyers and sellers
The recent OCR cut and easing interest rates appeared to mark a turning point for the New Zealand property market, sparking renewed interest among buyers. Following last month’s OCR drop, buyer enquiries surged, signalling confidence from Kiwis actively looking for new homes.
Yet, high stock levels suggest cautious optimism from buyers prevails. In October, stock levels hit an unusual peak, with over 32,000 properties available nationwide—a 26.3% increase year-on-year and a 7.7% rise from September.
Sarah Wood, CEO of realestate.co.nz, noted that while optimism is creeping back, factors like interest rates and job security are tempering purchase behaviour:
“While buyer activity is climbing, economic factors are keeping some would-be buyers on the sidelines.”
October’s housing stock reaches 10-year high: 32,000 homes now on offer
National stock levels were the highest recorded for a month of October in almost a decade. While higher stock levels in October are typical as the spring selling season ramps up, these levels reflect trends we haven’t seen since 2014 and 2015.
“Buyers had more to choose from last month than they’ve had during an October for nearly a decade,” said Wood.
All regions saw positive stock growth both month-on-month and year-on-year, with the majority showing double-digit annual increases. The biggest year-on-year increases in stock were in Gisborne (up 81.2%) and Wellington (up 52.9%). Only Northland, Taranaki, Nelson, and Southland recorded single-digit growth.
According to Wood, early signs of market movement are beginning to show even if stock isn’t selling through yet:
“We can see buyer sentiment changing with the amount of time properties are staying on the site. Properties listed for less than 30 days increased from 23.9% in September to 27.9% in October meaning that stock is moving faster, and interest is warming up.”
Nearly two years of stable prices offer buyers rare predictability
The abundance of stock, along with stable asking prices, is creating favourable conditions for those in a position to buy.
For 22 months, the national average asking price has remained steady, fluctuating only between $850,000 and $890,000, providing rare market predictability. At $856,981, our national average asking price was down 3.0% year-on-year and 1.5% month-on-month during October.
The absence of significant price fluctuations also extended around the country, with most regions seeing changes of less than 10% in their average asking price compared to 2023.
Otago, Southland, and the West Coast were the only regions to see both month-on-month and year-on-year growth in asking prices. At the other end of the spectrum, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Central North Island, Hawke’s Bay, Northland, Waikato, and Wairarapa all saw declines over both timeframes.
The West Coast saw the biggest year-on-year increase to its average asking price, up 14.3%, while Wairarapa recorded the steepest decline, down 12.1% compared to last year. “Both are smaller markets and tend to be more prone to fluctuation,” noted Wood.
Wood added: “The overall price stability is a positive sign for both buyers and sellers, offering a steady environment for those entering or moving within the market.”
“Of course, individual circumstances and interest rates continue to shape buyer and seller decisions.”
About realestate.co.nz
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Dedicated only to property, our mission is to empower people with a property search tool they can use to find the life they want to live. With residential, lifestyle, rural and commercial property listings, realestate.co.nz is the place to start for those looking to buy or sell property.
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Glossary of terms:
Average asking price (AAP) is neither a valuation nor the sale price. It is an indication of current market sentiment. Statistically, asking prices tend to correlate closely with the sales prices recorded in future months when those properties are sold. As it looks at different data, average asking prices may differ from recorded sales data released simultaneously.
New listings are a record of all the new residential dwellings listed for sale on realestate.co.nz for the relevant calendar month. The site reflects 97% of all properties listed through licensed real estate agents and major developers in New Zealand. This description gives a representative view of the New Zealand property market.
Stock is the total number of residential dwellings that are for sale on realestate.co.nz on the penultimate day of the month.
Rate of sale is a measure of how long it would take, theoretically, to sell the current stock at current average rates of sale if no new properties were to be listed for sale. It provides a measure of the rate of turnover in the market.
Seasonal adjustment is a method realestate.co.nz uses to represent better the core underlying trend of the property market in New Zealand. This is done using methodology from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
Truncated mean is the method realestate.co.nz uses to supply statistically relevant asking prices. The top and bottom 10% of listings in each area are removed before the average is calculated to prevent exceptional listings from providing false impressions.
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