Source: United States Small Business Administration
ATLANTA -The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) is reminding small businesses and private nonprofit (PNP) organizations in West Virginia of the March 31, 2025, deadline to apply for low interest federal disaster loans to offset economic losses caused by the drought beginning July 16, 2024.
The disaster declaration covers the counties of Barbour, Berkeley, Grant, Greenbrier, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Mineral, Morgan, Pendleton, Pocahontas, Preston, Randolph, Tucker, Upshur and Webster in West Virginia, as well as the counties of Allegany, Garrett and Washington in Maryland, and Augusta, Bath, Clarke, Frederick, Highland, Loudoun, Rockingham and Shenandoah in Virginia.
Under this declaration, SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program is available to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, nurseries, and PNPs that suffered financial losses directly related to the disaster. The SBA is unable to provide disaster loans to agricultural producers, farmers, or ranchers, except for small aquaculture enterprises.
EIDLs are available for working capital needs caused by the disaster and are available even if the business or PNP did not suffer any physical damage. The loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills not paid due to the disaster.
“SBA loans help eligible small businesses and private nonprofits cover operating expenses after a disaster, which is crucial for their recovery,” said Chris Stallings, associate administrator of the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience at the SBA. “These loans not only help business owners get back on their feet but also play a key role in sustaining local economies in the aftermath of a disaster.”
The loan amount can be up to $2 million with interest rates as low as 4% for small businesses and 3.25% for PNPs, with terms up to 30 years. Interest does not accrue, and payments are not due, until 12 months from the date of the first loan disbursement. The SBA sets loan amounts and terms based on each applicant’s financial condition.
To apply online visit sba.gov/disaster. Applicants may also call SBA’s Customer Service Center at (800) 659-2955 or email disastercustomerservice@sba.gov for more information on SBA disaster assistance. For people who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.
Submit completed loan applications to SBA no later than March 31, 2025.
###
About the U.S. Small Business Administration
The U.S. Small Business Administration helps power the American dream of business ownership. As the only go-to resource and voice for small businesses backed by the strength of the federal government, the SBA empowers entrepreneurs and small business owners with the resources and support they need to start, grow, expand their businesses, or recover from a declared disaster. It delivers services through an extensive network of SBA field offices and partnerships with public and private organizations. To learn more, visit www.sba.gov.
Source: United States Small Business Administration
ATLANTA – The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) is reminding small businesses and private nonprofit (PNP) organizations in Florida of the April 1, 2025, deadline to apply for low interest federal disaster loans to offset economic losses caused by the severe storms and flooding occurring on June 11-14, 2024.
This disaster declaration covers the counties of Broward, Collier, Hendry, Miami-Dade, Monroe and Palm Beach.
Under this declaration, SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program is available to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, nurseries, and PNPs that suffered financial losses directly related to the disaster. The SBA is unable to provide disaster loans to agricultural producers, farmers, or ranchers, except for small aquaculture enterprises.
EIDLs are available for working capital needs caused by the disaster and are available even if the business or PNP did not suffer any physical damage. The loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills not paid due to the disaster.
“SBA loans help eligible small businesses cover operating expenses after a disaster, which is crucial for their recovery,” said Chris Stallings, associate administrator of the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience at the SBA. “These loans not only help business owners get back on their feet but also play a key role in sustaining local economies in the aftermath of a disaster.”
The loan amount can be up to $2 million with interest rates as low as 4% for small businesses and 3.25% for PNPs, with terms up to 30 years. Interest does not accrue, and payments are not due, until 12 months from the date of the first loan disbursement. The SBA sets loan amounts and terms based on each applicant’s financial condition.
To apply online visit sba.gov/disaster. Applicants may also call SBA’s Customer Service Center at (800) 659-2955 or email disastercustomerservice@sba.gov for information on SBA disaster assistance. For people who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.
The deadline to return economic injury applications is April 1, 2025.
###
About the U.S. Small Business Administration
The U.S. Small Business Administration helps power the American dream of business ownership. As the only go-to resource and voice for small businesses backed by the strength of the federal government, the SBA empowers entrepreneurs and small business owners with the resources and support they need to start, grow or expand their businesses, or recover from a declared disaster. It delivers services through an extensive network of SBA field offices and partnerships with public and private organizations. To learn more, visit www.sba.gov.
Source: United States Small Business Administration
ATLANTA -The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) is reminding small businesses and private nonprofit (PNP) organizations in Michigan of the March 31 deadline to apply for low interest federal disaster loans to offset economic losses caused by the drought that began on April 25, 2024.
The disaster declaration covers the counties of Allegan, Barry, Bay, Calhoun, Clare, Clinton, Eaton, Gladwin, Gratiot, Ionia, Isabella, Kalamazoo, Kent, Midland, Montcalm and Saginaw.
Under this declaration, SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program is available to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, nurseries, and PNPs that suffered financial losses directly related to the disaster. The SBA is unable to provide disaster loans to agricultural producers, farmers, or ranchers, except for small aquaculture enterprises.
EIDLs are available for working capital needs caused by the disaster and are available even if the business or PNP did not suffer any physical damage. The loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills that could have been paid had the disaster not occurred.
“SBA loans help eligible small businesses and private nonprofits cover operating expenses after a disaster, which is crucial for their recovery,” said Chris Stallings, associate administrator of the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience at the SBA. “These loans not only help business owners get back on their feet but also play a key role in sustaining local economies in the aftermath of a disaster.”
The loan amount can be up to $2 million with interest rates as low as 4% for small businesses and 3.25% for PNPs, with terms up to 30 years. Interest does not accrue, and payments are not due, until 12 months from the date of the first loan disbursement. The SBA sets loan amount terms based on each applicant’s financial condition.
For more information and to apply online visit sba.gov/disaster. Applicants may also call SBA’s Customer Service Center at (800) 659-2955 or email disastercustomerservice@sba.gov for more information on SBA disaster assistance. For people who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.
Submit completed loan applications to SBA no later than March 31, 2025.
###
About the U.S. Small Business Administration
The U.S. Small Business Administration helps power the American dream of business ownership. As the only go-to resource and voice for small businesses backed by the strength of the federal government, the SBA empowers entrepreneurs and small business owners with the resources and support they need to start, grow, expand their businesses, or recover from a declared disaster. It delivers services through an extensive network of SBA field offices and partnerships with public and private organizations. To learn more, visit www.sba.gov.
Source: United States Small Business Administration
ATLANTA – The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) is reminding small businesses and private nonprofit (PNP) organizations in Virginia of the March 31, 2025, deadline to apply for low interest federal disaster loans to offset economic losses caused by the drought beginning on July 16, 2024.
The disaster declaration covers the counties of Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buckingham, Charlottesville, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax County, Fauquier, Fluvanna, Frederick, Greene, Harrisonburg, Highland, Loudoun, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, Orange, Page, Prince Wiliam, Rappahannock, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Stafford, Staunton, Warren, Waynesboro and Winchester in Virginia, as well as Frederick, Montgomery and Washington counties in Maryland, and Berkeley, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Pendleton and Pocahontas in West Virginia.
Under this declaration, SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program is available to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, nurseries, and PNPs that suffered financial losses directly related to the disaster. The SBA is unable to provide disaster loans to agricultural producers, farmers, or ranchers, except for small aquaculture enterprises.
EIDLs are available for working capital needs caused by the disaster and are available even if the business or PNP did not suffer any physical damage. The loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills not paid due to the disaster.
“SBA loans help eligible small businesses and private nonprofits cover operating expenses after a disaster, which is crucial for their recovery,” said Chris Stallings, associate administrator of the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience at the SBA. “These loans not only help business owners get back on their feet but also play a key role in sustaining local economies in the aftermath of a disaster.”
The loan amount can be up to $2 million with interest rates as low as 4% for small businesses and 3.25% for PNPs, with terms up to 30 years. Interest does not accrue, and payments are not due, until 12 months from the date of the first loan disbursement. The SBA sets loan amounts and terms based on each applicant’s financial condition.
To apply online visit sba.gov/disaster. Applicants may also call SBA’s Customer Service Center at (800) 659-2955 or email disastercustomerservice@sba.gov for more information on SBA disaster assistance. For people who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.
The deadline to return economic injury applications is March 31, 2025.
###
About the U.S. Small Business Administration
The U.S. Small Business Administration helps power the American dream of business ownership. As the only go-to resource and voice for small businesses backed by the strength of the federal government, the SBA empowers entrepreneurs and small business owners with the resources and support they need to start, grow or expand their businesses, or recover from a declared disaster. It delivers services through an extensive network of SBA field offices and partnerships with public and private organizations. To learn more, visit www.sba.gov.
Both Defendants Face Mandatory Life Imprisonment, and Could Face the Death Penalty, if Convicted
Rafael Caro Quintero (Caro Quintero) and Vicente Carrillo Fuentes (Carrillo Fuentes), both citizens of Mexico, were arraigned in federal court in Brooklyn today for crimes committed as leaders of Mexican drug cartels, which were responsible for significant drug trafficking into the United States and acts of extreme violence—including, with respect to Caro Quintero, the 1985 kidnapping, torture, and murder of Drug Enforcement Administration Special Agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena—over a period of decades. Caro Quintero was arraigned on a third superseding indictment charging him with four counts: one count of leading a Continuing Criminal Enterprise, which includes ten violations, including a murder conspiracy; two counts of international narcotics distribution conspiracy; and one count of unlawful use of firearms in furtherance of drug trafficking. Carrillo Fuentes was arraigned on a superseding indictment charging him with seven counts: one count of leading a Continuing Criminal Enterprise, which includes six violations, including a murder conspiracy; four counts of cocaine distribution conspiracy; one count of unlawful use of firearms in furtherance of drug trafficking; and one count of money laundering conspiracy. Both Caro Quintero and Carrillo Fuentes were arraigned before United States Magistrate Judge Robert M. Levy after being expelled from Mexico to the Eastern District of New York.
John J. Durham, United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York, Frank A Tarentino III, Special Agent in Charge, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), New York Division, and Michael Alfonso, Acting Special Agent in Charge, Homeland Security Investigations New York (HSI) announced the arraignments.
“For decades, Rafael Caro Quintero and Vicente Carrillo Fuentes have flooded the United States and other countries with drugs, violence, and mayhem, killing so many in their quest for power and control, including in RCQ’s case the brutal torture and murder of DEA Special Agent Camarena,” stated United States Attorney Durham. “Today the next step in the American legal proceedings against these two cartel leaders—Caro Quintero, the “Narco of Narcos,” and Carrillo Fuentes, the head of the Juarez Cartel—are finally underway, and we are one step closer to justice being served. My Office continues to be steadfastly focused on the vital work of protecting people of this district, and of all of those in the United States, from the destruction that cartels wreak on our communities.”
“Today marks a day which will be remembered in the history of the DEA. For nearly four decades, the men and women of the DEA have pursued Rafael Caro Quintero, the man responsible for the kidnapping, torture, and death of fallen DEA Special Agent Kiki Camarena, and the leader of one the most notorious and violent drug cartels. Today, Rafael Caro Quintero will finally face the consequences for the crimes he committed” stated DEA New York Special Agent in Charge Frank Tarentino. “No matter how long it takes, or where you hide, the DEA remains patient and committed in our global pursuit to targeting those individuals who have brought violence and destruction to our communities. The DEA will make sure justice is delivered.”
“Make no mistake: the world is undoubtedly a safer place with these men in custody in the United States. Carrillo-Fuentes and Rafael Caro Quintero are merciless terrorists who used fear as a tactic to intimidate their rivals and the public. ICE Homeland Security Investigations special agents and personnel with our El Dorado Task Force have dedicated years to investigating the alleged crimes and bloodshed at the hands of these defendants,” said ICE Homeland Security Investigations Special Agent in Charge Michael Alfonso.
Rafael Caro Quintero
Caro Quintero was first indicted in the Eastern District of New York in 2015, and a third superseding indictment was returned against him in 2018. As alleged in the indictment and other public filings, Caro Quintero’s involvement in drug trafficking and violence is extensive, ruthless, and notorious. Known as the “Narco of Narcos,” Caro Quintero started cultivating marijuana as a teenager in Mexico in the 1960s and developed transportation and distribution networks and routes that enabled him to move that marijuana into the United States. Caro Quintero also manufactured and trafficked heroin and methamphetamine from Mexico into the United States. Caro Quintero then joined with Colombian cocaine manufacturers to use his networks and routes to traffic cocaine from South America, through Central America and Mexico, into the United States. By the 1970s, Caro Quintero’s organization became known as the Guadalajara Cartel, which ultimately joined the syndicate known as the “Sinaloa Cartel” (or Mexican “Federation”), the largest drug trafficking organization in the world.
In 1985, Caro Quintero ordered the kidnapping, torture, and murder of DEA Special Agent Camarena. Caro Quintero believed Camarena was responsible for leading the Mexican government to seize Caro Quintero’s largest ranch in Chihuahua, Rancho Buffalo. Caro Quintero’s men abducted Camarena and took him to a location where he was tortured and interrogated for approximately two days, after which Caro Quintero and his men killed Camarena.
Later in 1985, Caro Quintero went to prison in Mexico. Nevertheless, from 1985 to 2013, while in prison, Caro Quintero continued operating his drug trafficking organization (the “Caro Quintero DTO”), using family members and associates on the outside to assist him. The Caro Quintero DTO trafficked large quantities of marijuana, cocaine, methamphetamine, and heroin into the United States. After his release from prison in 2013, Caro Quintero went into hiding and continued running the Caro Quintero DTO from various locations in the mountains of Sinaloa. The Sinaloa Cartel provided Caro Quintero with protection during this time.
Caro Quintero and the members and associates of his organization carried firearms in furtherance of their drug trafficking activities, including pistols and AK-47s. Caro Quintero himself carried a Colt .38 Super pistol with a diamond encrusted handle and “R-1” written in gold.
Vincente Carrillo Fuentes
Carrillo Fuentes was first indicted in the Eastern District of New York in 2009, with superseding charges filed in 2019. As alleged in the indictment and other public filings, Carrillo Fuentes and his brother, Amado Carrillo Fuentes, led the infamous Juarez Cartel for more than two decades. Under the leadership of Carrillo Fuentes, the Juarez Cartel dominated and controlled drug trafficking through the El Paso-Ciudad Juarez corridor and used its control of the Texas-Mexico border to deliver multi-ton shipments of cocaine throughout the United States, including to locations in New York, Texas, California, and Illinois.
Until approximately 2004, Carrillo Fuentes and the Juarez Cartel were aligned with the Sinaloa Cartel, one of the largest transnational criminal organizations in the world. The two organizations worked collectively, partnering in drug shipments and sharing infrastructure as they trafficked tons of cocaine into the United States. Throughout this partnership, Carrillo Fuentes and his associates corrupted public officials and taxed other drug-trafficking organizations as they asserted their control over the all-important El Paso-Ciudad Juarez corridor. When this partnership finally splintered—and Carrillo Fuentes and the Juarez Cartel split from the Sinaloa Cartel and realigned with the rival drug traffickers such as the Zetas—Mexico was plunged into a decade of war and bloodshed. Carrillo Fuentes was at the center of this chaos, initially as the commander of the Juarez Cartel’s sicarios (the Spanish term for contract killers) and soldiers, and then later as the leader of the entire Juarez Cartel.
* * * * *
The government’s cases against Caro Quintero and Carrillo Fuentes are part of the operations of the Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces (OCDETF). OCDETF identifies, disrupts, and dismantles the highest-level criminal organizations that threaten the United States using a prosecutor-led, intelligence-driven, multi-agency approach. Additional information about the OCDETF Program can be found at https://www.justice.gov/OCDETF.
The charges in the indictments are merely allegations and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty. Both defendants face mandatory life sentences and, if convicted, could face the death penalty.
The government’s cases against Caro Quintero and Carrillo Fuentes are being handled by the Office’s International Narcotics and Money Laundering Section. Assistant United States Attorneys Saritha Komatireddy, Francisco J. Navarro, Erin Reid, and Andrew Wang are in charge of the prosecution of Caro Quintero, and Assistant United States Attorneys Erik D. Paulsen and Miranda Gonzalez are in charge of the prosecution of Carrillo Fuentes. Asset forfeiture matters for both cases are being handled by Assistant United States Attorney Brendan King. Paralegal Specialists Melissa Bennett and Huda Abouchaer provided assistance on both cases.
The IMF Executive Board completed the Third Review under the 48-month Extended Fund Facility with Sri Lanka, providing the country with immediate access to SDR 254 million (about US $334 million) to support its economic policies and reforms.
Performance under the program has been strong. All quantitative targets for end-December 2024 were met, except the indicative target on social spending. Most structural benchmarks due by end-January 2025 were either met or implemented with delay. The recent successful completion of the bond exchange is a major milestone towards restoring debt sustainability.
Reform efforts are bearing fruit with the recovery gaining momentum. As the economy is still vulnerable, sustaining the reform agenda is critical to put the economy on a path towards lasting recovery and debt sustainability.
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the third review under the 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement, allowing the authorities to draw SDR 254 million (about US$334 million). This brings the total IMF financial support disbursed so far to SDR 1.02 billion (about US$1.34 billion).[1]
The EFF arrangement for Sri Lanka was approved by the Executive Board on March 20, 2023 (see Press Release No. 23/79) in an amount of SDR 2.286 billion (395 percent of quota or about US$3 billion. The program supports Sri Lanka’s efforts to restore and maintain macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability while protecting the poor and vulnerable, rebuild external buffers, and enhance growth-oriented structural reforms including by strengthening governance.
Following the Executive Board discussion on Sri Lanka, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director, issued the following statement:
“Reforms in Sri Lanka are bearing fruit and the economic recovery has been remarkable. Inflation remains low, revenue collection is improving, and reserves continue to accumulate. Economic growth averaged 4.3 percent since growth resumed in the third quarter of 2023. By end-2024, Sri Lanka’s real GDP is estimated to have recovered 40 percent of its loss incurred between 2018 and 2023. The recovery is expected to continue in 2025. As the economy is still vulnerable, it is critical to sustain the reform momentum to ensure macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, and promote long-term inclusive growth. There is no room for policy errors.
“Program performance has been strong with all quantitative targets met, except for the indicative target on social spending. Most structural benchmarks due by end-January 2025 were either met or implemented with delay.
“Sustained revenue mobilization is crucial to restoring fiscal sustainability and ensuring that the government can continue to provide essential services. Boosting tax compliance and refraining from tax exemptions are key to maintaining support for economic reforms. To ease economic hardship and ensure the poor and vulnerable can participate in Sri Lanka’s recovery it is important to meet social spending targets and continue with reforms of the social safety net. Going forward, social support needs to be well-targeted towards the most disadvantaged so as to promote inclusive growth with limited fiscal space. Restoring cost-recovery electricity pricing without delay is needed to contain fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises. A smoother execution of capital spending within the fiscal envelope would foster medium-term growth.
“The progress to advance the debt restructuring to restore Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability is noteworthy. The recent successful completion of the bond exchange is a major milestone towards restoring debt sustainability. Timely finalization of bilateral agreements with creditors in the Official Creditor Committee and with remaining creditors is a priority now.
“Monetary policy should prioritize maintaining price stability, supported by sustained commitment to prohibit monetary financing and safeguard Central Bank independence. Continued exchange rate flexibility and gradually phasing out the balance of payments measures remain critical to rebuild external buffers and facilitate rebalancing.
“Resolving non-performing loans, strengthening governance and oversight of state-owned banks, and improving the insolvency and resolution frameworks are important priorities to revive credit growth and support the economic recovery.
“Prolonged structural challenges need to be addressed to unlock Sri Lanka’s long-term potential, including steadfast implementation of the governance reforms.”
Sri Lanka: Selected Economic Indicators 2022-2030
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Act.
Proj.
Projections
GDP and inflation (in percent)
Real GDP
-7.3
-2.3
4.5
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
Inflation (average) 1/
45.2
17.4
1.2
3.8
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
Inflation (end-of-period) 1/
58.6
3.0
-1.5
7.8
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
GDP Deflator growth
47.5
17.5
3.5
4.9
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
Nominal GDP growth
36.6
14.8
8.2
8.1
8.7
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.3
Savings and investment (in percent of GDP)
National savings
27.6
33.8
34.0
31.7
31.9
32.1
31.9
31.7
31.7
Government
-6.4
-6.0
-3.2
-1.8
-0.7
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
Private
34.0
39.8
37.2
33.5
32.6
32.1
31.7
31.4
31.2
National investment
28.6
30.8
32.1
32.2
32.5
32.9
32.7
32.6
32.5
Government
5.5
3.7
3.6
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
Private
23.1
27.1
28.5
27.7
27.9
28.2
28.1
28.0
28.0
Savings-Investment balance
-1.0
3.1
1.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
Government
-11.9
-9.6
-6.8
-6.2
-5.3
-4.7
-4.5
-4.3
-4.1
Private
10.9
12.7
8.6
5.8
4.7
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.2
Public finance (in percent of GDP)
Revenue and grants
8.4
11.1
13.7
15.1
15.3
15.3
15.2
15.3
15.3
Expenditure
18.6
19.4
19.3
20.4
19.8
19.2
19.1
19.0
18.8
Primary balance
-3.7
0.6
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
Central government balance
-10.2
-8.3
-5.6
-5.4
-4.6
-4.0
-3.8
-3.7
-3.5
Central government gross financing needs
34.1
27.6
22.1
22.8
19.7
15.7
13.2
11.8
11.6
Central government debt
115.9
109.5
99.5
105.7
106.4
103.5
100.2
97.0
93.9
Public debt 2/
126.3
115.8
104.6
110.7
110.9
107.4
103.7
100.1
96.8
Money and credit (percent change, end of period)
Reserve money
3.3
-1.5
10.3
9.7
8.7
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.3
Broad money
15.5
7.3
10.0
9.7
8.7
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.3
Domestic credit
18.8
-1.2
6.1
3.3
2.8
3.3
4.0
4.3
4.9
Credit to private sector
6.4
-0.8
7.9
7.5
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.4
Credit to private sector (adjusted for inflation)
-38.8
-18.2
6.6
3.7
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
Credit to central government and public corporations
31.1
-1.6
4.7
-0.1
-3.1
-2.9
-2.2
-2.2
-1.5
Balance of Payments (in millions of U.S. dollars)
Exports
13,107
11,911
12,772
13,446
14,090
14,795
15,638
16,397
17,192
Imports
-18,291
-16,811
-18,841
-21,718
-22,668
-23,410
-24,105
-25,109
-26,026
Current account balance
-737
2,582
1,824
-409
-538
-751
-864
-952
-922
Current account balance (in percent of GDP)
-1.0
3.1
1.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
Current account balance net of interest (in percent of GDP)
0.1
4.2
3.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.3
Export value growth (percent)
4.9
-9.1
7.2
5.3
4.8
5.0
5.7
4.9
4.9
Import value growth (percent)
-11.4
-8.1
12.1
15.3
4.4
3.3
3.0
4.2
3.7
Gross official reserves (end of period)
In millions of U.S. dollars
1,898
4,392
6,122
7,056
9,303
13,118
14,710
14,875
15,175
In months of prospective imports of goods & services
1.2
2.4
2.9
3.2
4.1
5.5
5.9
5.8
5.7
In percent of ARA composite metric
16.6
37.5
50.3
58.3
75.4
100.1
108.8
108.5
108.7
Usable Gross official reserves (end of period) 3/
In millions of U.S. dollars
462
2,956
4,686
7,056
9,303
13,118
14,710
14,875
15,175
In months of prospective imports of goods & services
0.3
1.6
2.2
3.2
4.1
5.5
5.9
5.8
5.7
In percent of ARA composite metric
4.0
25.3
38.5
58.3
75.4
100.1
108.8
108.5
108.7
External debt (public and private)
In billions of U.S. dollars
57.4
54.1
53.9
54.9
57.2
61.2
62.9
63.3
65.6
As a percent of GDP
77.0
64.1
54.4
56.1
62.9
65.9
64.0
60.4
58.9
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP (in billions of rupees)
24,064
27,630
29,893
32,309
35,123
38,113
41,343
44,819
48,551
Exchange Rate (period average)
322.6
327.5
302.0
…
…
…
…
…
…
Exchange Rate (end of period)
363.1
323.9
293.0
…
…
…
…
…
…
Sources: Data provided by the Sri Lankan authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
1/ Colombo CPI.
2/ Comprising central government debt, publicly guaranteed debt, and CBSL external liabilities
(i.e., Fund credit outstanding and international currency swap arrangements). The debt statistics
currently assume the external debt restructuring to have been completed at end 2023.
3/ Excluding PBOC swap ($1.4bn in 2022) which becomes usable once GIR rise above 3 months
of previous year’s import cover.
[1] SDR figures are converted at the market rate of U.S. dollar per SDR on the day of the Board approval.
Source: United States Senator for Virginia Tim Kaine
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senators Mark R. Warner and Tim Kaine and U.S. Representatives Bobby Scott, Gerry Connolly, Don Beyer, Jennifer McClellan, Suhas Subramanyam and Eugene Vindman (all D-VA) urged President Trump to halt any proposal that would alter the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) without congressional consultation and approval.
“We write to express our great concern regarding reports that you intend to dissolve the United States Postal Service’s (USPS) bipartisan Board of Governors and move the independent agency under the control of the Department of Commerce. The Postal Service plays a crucial role in keeping our communities, especially in our rural areas, connected to each other and to the wider world. From delivering prescription medications and household goods, to election ballots, paychecks, and critical bills, USPS continues to be an essential part of Americans’ everyday lives. However, press reports indicate you are planning to upend over 50 years of Congressionally-mandated independence at USPS with no clear strategy for continuing essential mail delivery services or achieving financial sustainability,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to President Trump. “We urge you to cease the advancement of any proposal that would alter the USPS without congressional consultation and approval.”
Since Congress passed the Postal Reorganization Act of 1970, USPS has operated as an independent agency run by a bipartisan Board of Governors who are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. However, press reports have recently suggested that President Trump intends to sign an executive order to dissolve the Board and move the independent agency under the control of Secretary Howard Lutnick at the Department of Commerce. Last Friday, the president confirmed these reports when he said he was considering a “form of a merger” for the Postal Service. The letter rejects this vague and unconstitutional plan.
Wrote the lawmakers, “Throughout our nation’s history, the Postal Service has been an integral function of the U.S. government, particularly in rural areas. While 63% of post offices in rural areas do not generate enough revenue to cover their costs, Congress continues to ensure changes do not disadvantage rural areas because all Americans deserve the same mail delivery service regardless of where they live. Given your reported interest in privatizing the Postal Service, the universal service obligation that binds the Postal Service to deliver to all Americans could be scrapped for a plan that risks cutting off rural delivery and worsening service for all.”
The letter also references Virginia’s mail delivery issues, raising concerns that the president’s plans could upend recent improvements in mail service.
“Virginians are unfortunately familiar with the impacts of mail delivery falling short in the Commonwealth. In late 2023, USPS chose Richmond, Virginia as the first location to implement sweeping reforms under the ‘Delivering for America’ plan, including opening the Richmond Regional Processing and Distribution Center (RPDC). Shortly after, Virginia’s on-time service performance became the worst in the country. Last year, we met with Postmaster General Louis DeJoy on three occasions to push USPS to do everything in its power to improve mail service in Virginia. Throughout the year, we saw steady improvements in USPS’s mail service as we continued to press for increased transparency, greater engagement with the public, and a higher standard of service,” they wrote.
Continued the members, “While some communities in Virginia still experience service performance issues, we were pleased to see a USPS Inspector General report in January 2025 that found USPS had stabilized service at the Richmond RPDC, achieved most of the expected savings for fiscal year 2024, and returned statewide mail service to match nationwide averages. We fear such a significant upheaval of USPS’s governing structure and operations, as has been reported in the press, could reverse the improvement in mail service we have seen across Virginia.”
Lastly, the Virginia lawmakers noted dismantling or privatizing the Postal Service would jeopardize its critical facilitation of the nation’s vote by mail system.
“We are also disturbed by the notion that a USPS merger with the Department of Commerce will insert an intense partisan agenda into the distribution of millions of mail-in ballots as we approach election season. In the 2024 election, USPS processed 99.22 million ballots, with 99.88% of ballots delivered from voters to election officials within seven days and only one day on average to deliver ballots from voters to election officials. With over 2.3 million Virginians voting absentee in the 2024 general election, it is imperative that no changes are made to USPS that would undermine its ability to facilitate free and fair elections,” they wrote.
Concluded the lawmakers, “Any effort to ignore federal law and fire all members of the USPS’s Board of Governors – Republicans and Democrats who have been appointed by presidents and confirmed by the U.S. Senate – and move this independent agency under your control, will be met with fierce opposition. Furthermore, we request that you provide a full accounting of any changes that is being explored to alter USPS service, leadership, and personnel.”
A copy of the letter is available here.
Source: United States Senator Tommy Tuberville (Alabama)
WASHINGTON – In January 2025, U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) reintroduced the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, or S.9, to save women’s sports and preserve Title IX protections for female athletes. Over the past four years, the Biden administration took a sledgehammer to Title IX – resulting in more than 900 women losing trophies to men competing in women’s sports. These policies are wildly unpopular as 79% of Americans agree that men should not compete against women.
As a former coach and educator for 40 years, Senator Tuberville has been a champion in the fight to protect women’s sports during his entire time in Congress. Last year, he forced a vote on an amendment that would protect female athletes by keeping men out of women’s sports – all 51 Democrats voted against it. Thankfully, President Trump signed a historic Executive Order earlier in February banning men from competing in women’s sports and protecting Title IX. Unfortunately, Executive Orders can be reversed. Senator Tuberville’s bill would make President Trump’s Executive Order permanent.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed similar legislation on a bipartisan basis in January. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) announced earlier this week that S.9 will get a vote on Monday, March 3. Ahead of the vote, a bipartisan coalition of former and current female athletes, coaches, parents, lawmakers, and advocates are voicing their support for Sen. Tuberville’s legislation.
What They Are Saying:
“Congress established Title IX to ensure that women and girls have equal and fair opportunities based on biological reality, and it has protected their safety for decades. After watching the Biden administration claw away at the integrity of Title IX for four years, I am proud to stand with my colleagues and President Trump in fighting to restore the protections that Title IX was always meant to provide to girls and women in sports,” said Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS).
“Since the start of his administration, President Trump has kept his promise to protect female athletes by preventing biological males from competing in their sports. With the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act vote approaching, it’s up to Congress to safeguard competitive opportunities for female athletes for generations to come. This is the women’s rights issue of our time, and I am proud to join my colleagues in ensuring young girls across America can compete on a level playing field,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).
“Protecting our daughters’ and granddaughters’ right to safe and fair competition is non-negotiable. We cannot allow biological men to compete in women’s sports and undermine the hard-fought victories of generations of American women and girls. I’m proud to stand up for Title IX alongside Senator Tuberville, President Trump, and my Republican colleagues,” said Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID).
“Men have no place competing in women’s athletics, this shouldn’t be controversial. Title IX was created to ensure fairness and equal opportunities for female athletes, yet the radical left is working to dismantle those protections. The House has already passed my legislation to restore common sense and protect the integrity of women’s sports. Now, the Senate must act. I urge my colleagues to stand with women and pass this critical bill without delay. Thank you to Senator Tuberville for his leadership in this fight,” said Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL-17).
“The American people spoke loud and clear in November that they do not want men in women’s sports or locker rooms. We cannot allow Democrats to erase Title IX, endangering our girls and undermining years of hard work. I applaud Coach Tuberville for his leadership, and I’m glad that the Senate is following through on the mandate given to us,” said Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL-15).
“The American people have made it clear: there is a national mandate to stand up for objective truth and to support women — safeguarding our privacy, safety, and equal opportunities. Thanks to the leadership of Senator Tuberville, advancing critical legislation to protect women’s rights has become a legislative priority. With the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act now being heard on the Senate floor, we’re one step closer to ensuring that women no longer lose trophies, roster spots, playing time, scholarships, or fair competition to men in their own sport. On Monday, the nation will see which members of the US Senate choose to stand for truth and fairness — answering the call of Americans nationwide,” said Riley Gaines, former 12x All-American swimmer at the University of Kentucky.
“I hope SB9 passes with bipartisan support. Eighty percent of Americans agree that men do not belong in women’s sports, and I urge all senators to vote in the best interests of their constituents. Having been forced to compete against and undress alongside a male athlete, I never want another girl to experience the same. This bill would help ensure that,” said Paula Scanlan, former teammate of Lia Thomas at the University of Pennsylvania.
“It’s time for the senate to do the right thing — stand up for women and girls and pass the Protect Women and Girls in Sports Act. This is not a political or partisan issue. It’s about basic biological truth and fairness for women and girls,” said Jennifer Sey, former 7x National Team Member for USA Gymnastics, 1986 Women’s National Gymnastics Champion, CEO XX-XY Athletics.
“Protecting women and girls in sports should not be a partisan issue. It’s about fairness, safety, and common sense. I know firsthand what it’s like to race against a male and be forced to change in a locker room with one. No woman should have to sacrifice her dignity or opportunities in the name of politics. This vote is a chance for leaders on both sides of the aisle to do what’s right, stand up for women, defend the integrity of sports, and uphold the very protections Title IX was meant to guarantee. I urge every senator to put politics aside and vote YES on SB9. Anything less is a betrayal of the women and girls who are counting on them,” said Kaitlynn Wheeler, former women’s swim team member at the University of Kentucky.
“I am urging every Senator to stand with women and vote YES on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act! 80% of Americans agree—no males in girls’ or women’s sports! I’ve been a lacrosse coach for 29 years, inducted into three halls of fame for my contributions to the game. Yet, I was removed from my position as Head Women’s Lacrosse Coach at Oberlin College. Thanks to Senator Tuberville, the Senate has an opportunity to be heroes and codify the executive order into law! Vote YES—for the young girls already competing in sports, and for those who need your vote to have a chance to play tomorrow!” said Kim Russell, former women’s lacrosse coach at Oberlin College.
“As someone who spent decades as a broadcaster covering women’s sports, I am heartbroken by the misguided attempts to destroy Title IX. I have seen firsthand the doors that can be opened in a young woman’s life through scholarships and sports. This isn’t about excluding anyone, it is about protecting the rights of women and girls to fair, safe competition. You can’t call yourself a feminist and not support preserving Title IX for women and girls everywhere. I was so proud to be at the White House to witness President Trump signing a historic Executive Order protecting women’s sports and preserving Title IX. Unfortunately, Executive Orders can be reversed. Congress needs to act on this. I was glad to see the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act pass the House on a bipartisan basis and urge every Senator to think about their daughters, nieces, and granddaughters and vote yes on this critical legislation,” said Sage Steele, former SportsCenter host.
“The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act is a critical next step to meaningful, lasting Title IX protections for female student athletes. It provides the clarity schools and governing bodies need to affirm the dignity of women and girls. I’m proud to link arms with fellow female athletes to support S.9. Our support of this legislation championed by Senator Tuberville has nothing to do with politics, but everything to do with our lived experiences. We’ve been betrayed by regressive policies compromising the assurances for equal protection on the basis of sex women won over 50 years ago. S.9 will reaffirm our rights and ensure future generations of female athletes will never have to face the injustice of men taking our places in women’s sports again,” said Macy Petty, former volleyball player at Lee University.
“Despite constant roadblocks and years of battling the system, women have fought hard, and continue to fight to be seen as equal in their athletic capabilities. Until the passage of title IX in 1972, there were fewer than 30,000 female collegiate athletes in the US. The number is in 100s of thousands today. But even to this day, females have never had equal opportunity in sports against their male counterparts. And now with males entering female sports, it feels like we have lost decades of advancement. Watching the females on my team suffer this injustice was just too much for me to ignore. Females have worked way too hard and far too long to be sidelined by males who are generally bigger, faster, and stronger. That’s why I support the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act led by Senator Tuberville. We are asking all members of Congress to support this bill and stand together for the protection and fairness of female sports now and into the future,” said Coach Melissa Batie-Smoose, former San Jose State University assistant volleyball coach.
“Senator Tuberville is taking a stand to protect women in sports, and it’s long overdue. As someone who has experienced the harm firsthand, I would never want another young woman to go through what I did at San Jose State or be left traumatized. The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act will ensure that no one has to endure what Riley Gaines or Peyton McNabb experienced. This act safeguards young female athletes from the physical and mental trauma of competing against men in a sport that should be their safe space. I urge every senator to consider: if this were your daughter, how would you feel watching her lose opportunities, face unfair competition, and be put at risk all while knowing you had the power to stop it? Senator Tuberville is doing what any responsible leader should—fighting for our safety. He must be heard and taken seriously,” said Brooke Slusser, former volleyball team captain at San Jose State University.
“Women’s sports and spaces deserve the protection that has been stripped away from so many women including myself in recent years. SB9, the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, would restore that protection. It is crucial that senators listen to their constituents instead of continuing to support an agenda that undermines female success. Nearly 80% of Americans believe gender ideology has no place in our locker rooms, on our podiums, or on our rosters. This Senate vote should reflect that statistic. We are on the brink of ending the suffering that women across the country have endured. Thank you, Senator Tuberville, for your leadership and for taking the initiative to truly preserve the rights of women,” said Lily Mullens, Roanoke College swim team captain.
“SB9, The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act is about ensuring female athletes have fair, safe, and equal opportunities. This is more than just about sports—it’s about protecting women’s rights and integrity. On Monday, the Senate can choose to stand up for truth, common sense, and women,” said Payton McNabb, former North Carolina high school volleyball player.
“The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 is of utmost importance because it ensures no female athlete is put in harms way on the court or field, forced into vulnerable spaces like our locker rooms where men are currently allowed, and gives us the power to champion our sports without the unfair biological advantages men have when competing. Female athletes throughout history have worked too hard for us to revert back to letting men invade our sports taking away opportunities, accolades, and ultimately our mark in the history of sports. As a female athlete that has been directly impacted by the participation of transgender athletes in women’s sports, I ask you to end this now. Please protect the future generations of female athletes from the mental, emotional, and physical warfare my teammates and I went through. My question to those who vote against this bill is how many more female athletes are going to have to get hurt, forfeit matches, lose out on scholarships, undress in front of men in their locker rooms, and even see full male genitalia involuntarily before you do something? What about your daughters, nieces, and even future grandchildren, is this something you’re okay with happening to them?” said Sia Liilii, University of Nevada Reno volleyball co-captain.
“More than 50 years ago, Congress enacted Title IX to ensure women had fair and equal opportunities in athletics. But radical gender ideology has tried to erase that hard-fought victory by insisting that men can be women. Women have been forced to share their private locker rooms with men and female athletes have lost out on scholarships, roster spots, and titles simply because they are not as strong and fast as their male counterparts. This injustice needs to end. President Trump’s Executive Order is the blueprint for strong stance on this issue, and now we need Congress to permanently codify the obvious and historical intention of Title IX into law to guard against future attacks from radical activists. It is simple: women’s sports must be for women only. We thank Sen. Tuberville for his tireless leadership on this issue!” said Penny Nance, CEO and President of Concerned Women for America Legislative Action Committee.
Senator Tommy Tuberville represents Alabama in the United States Senate and is a member of the Senate Armed Services, Agriculture, Veterans’ Affairs, HELP, and Aging Committees.
Minister for Regulation David Seymour says that one year in, the Ministry for Regulation is paving the way for better law-making, higher productivity, and higher wages. “One year ago, the Ministry for Regulation was set up. It was given the task of cutting red tape and lifting the quality of all regulatory systems in New Zealand. Those systems are stunting economic growth and costing people money and sanity,” Mr Seymour says. “After one year, the Ministry can point to a growing list of deregulation measures that are helping businesses, workers, and consumers. Some examples of the Ministry’s work include:
Delivering the first regulatory sector review into Early Childhood Education (ECE). These recommendations will reduce compliance costs, encourage more providers into the market, and give parents more choice. Cabinet will consider its fifteen recommendations later this month.
Delivering the second regulatory sector review into Agricultural and Horticultural Products. Cabinet accepted all of its sixteen recommendations this week. Now, implementing them will save up to $272 million by making approval processes easier and faster for farmers and growers.
Starting a third sector review into hairdressing and barbering industry by listening to those in the industry affected by out-of-date rules. The recommendations will be delivered shortly.
Driving regulators to change the rules for Buy Now, Pay Later customers, to keep the model viable and cost of services for consumers down.
Working with other agencies to make quick changes to regulations hindering Kiwis in areas such as Anti Money Laundering (AML), gift card regulation, emergency responders accessing medicines, bakers who were being regulated on the concentration of flour particles, and supporting people administering property on behalf of someone lacking decision-making capacity.
Working alongside MedSafe and the Ministry of Health to review the outdated and burdensome regulations which are holding back economic growth in the industrial hemp sector by 2030.
Triaging complaints from the ‘Red-Tape Tipline.’ Over 600 frustrated New Zealanders and businesses have reported cumbersome, costly and complex red tape that’s affecting their day-to-day lives and livelihoods. In each case that goes forward, the Ministry is doing further work, making recommendations to the relevant regulatory agency.
Alerting relevant agencies of 122 regulatory issues that came through the tipline so that they can be resolved. The Ministry is actively working to resolve a further 150 tips.
Putting in place best practice guides and training modules for the entire Government regulatory workforce that will improve New Zealanders interactions with regulators at the coal face.
Reforming the Cabinet Circular guiding Regulatory Impact Analysis, increasing the Ministry’s role in policy making. The Ministry will now be involved from the beginning of the policy making process, leading to fewer, higher quality Regulatory Impact Statements.
Preparing and consulting publicly on the Regulatory Standards Bill, that will be a game changer for the entire economy.
“This occurs alongside the Ministry’s work as a central agency to be the central steward of regulation across the public sector. The fourth sector review is also set to be announced shortly,” says Mr Seymour. “The Ministry will also be busy in its second year supporting the Regulatory Standards Bill through the House, conducting more sector reviews, responding to red tape tips, and supporting the public sector to use more effective and efficient regulations that work for New Zealand. “Bad regulation is killing our prosperity in three ways. It adds costs to the things we do; it prevents productive people from achieving innovative things that grow the economy, and it chips away at the heart of our identity and culture. It’s the fear that comes from worrying WorkSafe or some other regulator will come and shut you down. You can’t measure it, but we all know it’s there. “It’s clear that now is the time for a significant reset. Many governments over the years have paid lip-service to cutting red tape. This Government is committed to doing something about it.”
The IMF Executive Board completed the Third Review under the 48-month Extended Fund Facility with Sri Lanka, providing the country with immediate access to SDR 254 million (about US $334 million) to support its economic policies and reforms.
Performance under the program has been strong. All quantitative targets for end-December 2024 were met, except the indicative target on social spending. Most structural benchmarks due by end-January 2025 were either met or implemented with delay. The recent successful completion of the bond exchange is a major milestone towards restoring debt sustainability.
Reform efforts are bearing fruit with the recovery gaining momentum. As the economy is still vulnerable, sustaining the reform agenda is critical to put the economy on a path towards lasting recovery and debt sustainability.
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the third review under the 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement, allowing the authorities to draw SDR 254 million (about US$334 million). This brings the total IMF financial support disbursed so far to SDR 1.02 billion (about US$1.34 billion).[1]
The EFF arrangement for Sri Lanka was approved by the Executive Board on March 20, 2023 (see Press Release No. 23/79) in an amount of SDR 2.286 billion (395 percent of quota or about US$3 billion. The program supports Sri Lanka’s efforts to restore and maintain macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability while protecting the poor and vulnerable, rebuild external buffers, and enhance growth-oriented structural reforms including by strengthening governance.
Following the Executive Board discussion on Sri Lanka, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director, issued the following statement:
“Reforms in Sri Lanka are bearing fruit and the economic recovery has been remarkable. Inflation remains low, revenue collection is improving, and reserves continue to accumulate. Economic growth averaged 4.3 percent since growth resumed in the third quarter of 2023. By end-2024, Sri Lanka’s real GDP is estimated to have recovered 40 percent of its loss incurred between 2018 and 2023. The recovery is expected to continue in 2025. As the economy is still vulnerable, it is critical to sustain the reform momentum to ensure macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, and promote long-term inclusive growth. There is no room for policy errors.
“Program performance has been strong with all quantitative targets met, except for the indicative target on social spending. Most structural benchmarks due by end-January 2025 were either met or implemented with delay.
“Sustained revenue mobilization is crucial to restoring fiscal sustainability and ensuring that the government can continue to provide essential services. Boosting tax compliance and refraining from tax exemptions are key to maintaining support for economic reforms. To ease economic hardship and ensure the poor and vulnerable can participate in Sri Lanka’s recovery it is important to meet social spending targets and continue with reforms of the social safety net. Going forward, social support needs to be well-targeted towards the most disadvantaged so as to promote inclusive growth with limited fiscal space. Restoring cost-recovery electricity pricing without delay is needed to contain fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises. A smoother execution of capital spending within the fiscal envelope would foster medium-term growth.
“The progress to advance the debt restructuring to restore Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability is noteworthy. The recent successful completion of the bond exchange is a major milestone towards restoring debt sustainability. Timely finalization of bilateral agreements with creditors in the Official Creditor Committee and with remaining creditors is a priority now.
“Monetary policy should prioritize maintaining price stability, supported by sustained commitment to prohibit monetary financing and safeguard Central Bank independence. Continued exchange rate flexibility and gradually phasing out the balance of payments measures remain critical to rebuild external buffers and facilitate rebalancing.
“Resolving non-performing loans, strengthening governance and oversight of state-owned banks, and improving the insolvency and resolution frameworks are important priorities to revive credit growth and support the economic recovery.
“Prolonged structural challenges need to be addressed to unlock Sri Lanka’s long-term potential, including steadfast implementation of the governance reforms.”
Sri Lanka: Selected Economic Indicators 2022-2030
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Act.
Proj.
Projections
GDP and inflation (in percent)
Real GDP
-7.3
-2.3
4.5
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
Inflation (average) 1/
45.2
17.4
1.2
3.8
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
Inflation (end-of-period) 1/
58.6
3.0
-1.5
7.8
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
GDP Deflator growth
47.5
17.5
3.5
4.9
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
Nominal GDP growth
36.6
14.8
8.2
8.1
8.7
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.3
Savings and investment (in percent of GDP)
National savings
27.6
33.8
34.0
31.7
31.9
32.1
31.9
31.7
31.7
Government
-6.4
-6.0
-3.2
-1.8
-0.7
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
Private
34.0
39.8
37.2
33.5
32.6
32.1
31.7
31.4
31.2
National investment
28.6
30.8
32.1
32.2
32.5
32.9
32.7
32.6
32.5
Government
5.5
3.7
3.6
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
Private
23.1
27.1
28.5
27.7
27.9
28.2
28.1
28.0
28.0
Savings-Investment balance
-1.0
3.1
1.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
Government
-11.9
-9.6
-6.8
-6.2
-5.3
-4.7
-4.5
-4.3
-4.1
Private
10.9
12.7
8.6
5.8
4.7
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.2
Public finance (in percent of GDP)
Revenue and grants
8.4
11.1
13.7
15.1
15.3
15.3
15.2
15.3
15.3
Expenditure
18.6
19.4
19.3
20.4
19.8
19.2
19.1
19.0
18.8
Primary balance
-3.7
0.6
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
Central government balance
-10.2
-8.3
-5.6
-5.4
-4.6
-4.0
-3.8
-3.7
-3.5
Central government gross financing needs
34.1
27.6
22.1
22.8
19.7
15.7
13.2
11.8
11.6
Central government debt
115.9
109.5
99.5
105.7
106.4
103.5
100.2
97.0
93.9
Public debt 2/
126.3
115.8
104.6
110.7
110.9
107.4
103.7
100.1
96.8
Money and credit (percent change, end of period)
Reserve money
3.3
-1.5
10.3
9.7
8.7
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.3
Broad money
15.5
7.3
10.0
9.7
8.7
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.3
Domestic credit
18.8
-1.2
6.1
3.3
2.8
3.3
4.0
4.3
4.9
Credit to private sector
6.4
-0.8
7.9
7.5
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.4
Credit to private sector (adjusted for inflation)
-38.8
-18.2
6.6
3.7
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
Credit to central government and public corporations
31.1
-1.6
4.7
-0.1
-3.1
-2.9
-2.2
-2.2
-1.5
Balance of Payments (in millions of U.S. dollars)
Exports
13,107
11,911
12,772
13,446
14,090
14,795
15,638
16,397
17,192
Imports
-18,291
-16,811
-18,841
-21,718
-22,668
-23,410
-24,105
-25,109
-26,026
Current account balance
-737
2,582
1,824
-409
-538
-751
-864
-952
-922
Current account balance (in percent of GDP)
-1.0
3.1
1.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
Current account balance net of interest (in percent of GDP)
0.1
4.2
3.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.3
Export value growth (percent)
4.9
-9.1
7.2
5.3
4.8
5.0
5.7
4.9
4.9
Import value growth (percent)
-11.4
-8.1
12.1
15.3
4.4
3.3
3.0
4.2
3.7
Gross official reserves (end of period)
In millions of U.S. dollars
1,898
4,392
6,122
7,056
9,303
13,118
14,710
14,875
15,175
In months of prospective imports of goods & services
1.2
2.4
2.9
3.2
4.1
5.5
5.9
5.8
5.7
In percent of ARA composite metric
16.6
37.5
50.3
58.3
75.4
100.1
108.8
108.5
108.7
Usable Gross official reserves (end of period) 3/
In millions of U.S. dollars
462
2,956
4,686
7,056
9,303
13,118
14,710
14,875
15,175
In months of prospective imports of goods & services
0.3
1.6
2.2
3.2
4.1
5.5
5.9
5.8
5.7
In percent of ARA composite metric
4.0
25.3
38.5
58.3
75.4
100.1
108.8
108.5
108.7
External debt (public and private)
In billions of U.S. dollars
57.4
54.1
53.9
54.9
57.2
61.2
62.9
63.3
65.6
As a percent of GDP
77.0
64.1
54.4
56.1
62.9
65.9
64.0
60.4
58.9
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP (in billions of rupees)
24,064
27,630
29,893
32,309
35,123
38,113
41,343
44,819
48,551
Exchange Rate (period average)
322.6
327.5
302.0
…
…
…
…
…
…
Exchange Rate (end of period)
363.1
323.9
293.0
…
…
…
…
…
…
Sources: Data provided by the Sri Lankan authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
1/ Colombo CPI.
2/ Comprising central government debt, publicly guaranteed debt, and CBSL external liabilities
(i.e., Fund credit outstanding and international currency swap arrangements). The debt statistics
currently assume the external debt restructuring to have been completed at end 2023.
3/ Excluding PBOC swap ($1.4bn in 2022) which becomes usable once GIR rise above 3 months
of previous year’s import cover.
[1] SDR figures are converted at the market rate of U.S. dollar per SDR on the day of the Board approval.
CHICAGO — A suburban Chicago tax professional who fraudulently obtained more than $2.5 million from clients and investors under false pretenses has been sentenced to more than ten years in federal prison.
ADAM R. OLIVA, 43, of Rolling Meadows, Ill., pleaded guilty last year in two federal fraud cases. Oliva was sentenced in December to six years in federal prison for one of the cases, and on Wednesday he received an additional four-and-a-half-year sentence for the other case. The prison terms must be served consecutively, for a total period of incarceration of ten and a half years.
In one case, Oliva held himself out as a tax professional who did business under various names, including Oliva and Associates LLC and The Oliva Group LLC. From 2015 to 2020, Oliva fraudulently induced clients to provide him with money for the purported purpose of paying their income taxes. Oliva instead kept the money for himself. Oliva also admitted that he filed false tax returns on behalf of some of those clients, reflecting no or lower tax liabilities in order to make it less likely that the IRS would contact the clients about their unpaid tax liabilities.
In the other case, Oliva duped investors who had provided him with money to fund purported short-term loans to clients. Oliva promised those investors that they would receive returns of 10-20% on their investments. In reality, he never intended to make any short-term loans. Instead, he pocketed the investors’ money and used it for personal expenses, including gambling, meals at restaurants, and retail purchases.
The sentences were announced by Morris Pasqual, Acting United States Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, Ramsey E. Covington, Acting Special Agent-in-Charge of IRS Criminal Investigation Chicago Field Office, and Vincent R. Zehme, Special Agent-in-Charge of the Chicago Region of the FDIC’s Office of Inspector General. The government was represented by Assistant U.S. Attorney Rick D. Young.
“Expanding transportation south of the Fraser River with the Surrey Langley SkyTrain will offer faster and more reliable transit services, strengthening connections throughout Metro Vancouver for decades to come. Once complete, this project will reduce congestion, drive economic growth and support sustainable transit, while paving the way for a healthier, more connected and vibrant future.”
Kevin Quinn, CEO of TransLink–
“Once complete, the Surrey Langley SkyTrain extension will provide a fast, reliable and sustainable travel option for daily commuters. As our region prepares to welcome thousands of new residents in the coming decades, investments like this are critical to keeping our transportation network viable.”
Brenda Locke, mayor of Surrey–
“As construction of the Surrey Langley SkyTrain progresses, we are taking a crucial step toward addressing the long-standing transit challenges our city has faced. This project will help reduce the service gaps in Surrey, providing our residents with safer, more reliable and efficient transportation options they deserve. Together, we are building a more connected and vibrant future for our community.”
Eric Woodward, mayor of Township of Langley –
The Surrey Langley SkyTrain extension is a crucial and long-awaited step toward improving transportation in the region. For far too long, residents of the Township of Langley have endured limited commuting options. We are eager to see continued progress on the SkyTrain, and we welcome the recently announced Langley-Maple Ridge Bus Rapid Transit route, which will integrate seamlessly with the future Willowbrook SkyTrain station.
Nathan Pachal, mayor of Langley –
“We’re excited to see Langley city and the region becoming more connected as we grow. The SkyTrain expansion will make travel between communities easier, strengthen connections among residents, businesses and communities, and create new opportunities throughout the region.”
International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff level agreement (SLA) on the Seventh Review of the 4-year, $15.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board and consistent with its balance-of-payments needs, Ukraine would be expected to draw about US$0.4 billion (SDR 0.3 billion), bringing total disbursements under the program to US$10.1 billion.
Program performance remains strong. All end-December quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) have been met and understandings were reached on a set of policies and reforms to sustain macroeconomic stability. The structural reform agenda continues to make progress, with seven structural benchmarks met, another benchmark implemented with delay, and strong commitments to advance other key reforms.
The outlook remains exceptionally uncertain as the war continues to take a heavy toll on Ukraine’s people, economy, and infrastructure. Despite the challenging environment, the program remains on track on the back of critical external support.
Warsaw, Poland: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Gavin Gray held discussions with the Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv, Ukraine and Warsaw, Poland during February 20-28 on the Seventh Review of the country’s 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Upon the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Gray issued the following statement:
“IMF staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the Seventh Review of the EFF, subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, with Board consideration expected in coming weeks.
“Ukraine’s four-year EFF Arrangement with the IMF continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program in times of exceptionally high uncertainty. Program performance remains strong with all quantitative performance criteria for end-December met, and important progress on the structural agenda due for this review. Reflecting a revised profile of balance of payments needs in 2025, Ukraine has requested to rephase access under its EFF program, shifting IMF financing to future reviews while the overall size of the program remains unchanged.
“The economy has continued to show resilience despite the challenges arising from three years of war in Ukraine. Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.5 percent for 2024, but is expected to moderate to 2-3 percent in 2025, reflecting headwinds from labor constraints, damage to energy infrastructure, and the persistence of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Inflation has continued to rise, reaching 12.9 percent y/y in January, mainly due to rising food and labor costs. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised the policy rate by a cumulative 150 bps since December in response. Gross international reserves reached US$43 billion as of January 2025, reflecting continued large external official support. Risks remain exceptionally high given uncertainty on the war and the prospects for peace and recovery.
“The 2025 budget targets a deficit (excluding grants) of 19.6 percent of GDP and remains the anchor for fiscal policy this year. It incorporates the additional revenue derived from the increase in tobacco excise taxes and enactment of this tax policy change is a requirement for completion of the review. Financing the large fiscal deficit will require significant and timely external support, notably from the G7’s ERA initiative, to support macroeconomic stability. Responding to high budget risks will require preparedness with offsetting measures; in particular broad-based, durable, and efficient revenue measures and accelerated implementation of Ukraine’s National Revenue Strategy (NRS)
Restoring medium-term fiscal sustainability requires determined implementation of reforms to mobilize domestic revenues, tackle tax evasion and avoidance, and improve the investment climate. Tax policy reforms need also to be coupled with improvements in tax administration with continued reforms to the state customs service (SCS) and state tax service (STS). Restoring debt sustainability hinges on this revenue-based fiscal adjustment and continued implementation of the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy (where completing the treatment of the GDP warrants remains important). The upcoming 2026-2028 budget declaration that is to be submitted to Parliament in June will be an important opportunity to provide both the context and strategic objectives of the medium-term fiscal strategy.
“Given the risks from rising inflation, the recent increases in the policy rate by the NBU are appropriate. Further action would be warranted if inflation accelerates further or inflation expectations deteriorate. The exchange rate should increasingly act as a shock absorber. Maintaining adequate reserves is a priority, particularly in view of risks to the outlook.
“The independence, competence, and credibility of anti-corruption and judicial institutions should continue to be enhanced. Parliamentary adoption this week of the law establishing the High Administrative Court, a benchmark under the program, is a landmark step in this direction. Swift enactment of the law would pave the way for prompt establishment of the court.
“Effective public investment management (PIM) is critical for post-war recovery, reconstruction, and growth against a backdrop of limited fiscal space and tough demographic realities. To tackle these challenges, the government of Ukraine is implementing a comprehensive PIM framework that is in line with best international practices. A strategy-driven and transparent approach is essential to overcome absorption capacity constraints and allocate scarce resources efficiently.
“The financial sector remains stable, but continued vigilance is warranted given elevated risks. Developing financial markets infrastructure will be critical to support prompt reconstruction and recovery by facilitating much needed private investment, including attracting foreign capital. Comprehensive consultation and collaboration with financial market participants is essential to facilitate preparation of a prioritized reform agenda, which the NBU has begun in collaboration with other relevant stakeholders.
“The mission met with Finance Minister Marchenko, National Bank of Ukraine Governor Pyshnyy, other government ministers, public officials, and civil society. The mission thanks them and their technical staff for the excellent collaboration and constructive discussions.”
Source: United States Senator for New Mexico Martin Heinrich
WASHINGTON – U.S. Senators Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) introduced the Hatch Act Enforcement Transparency and Accountability Act. This legislation strengthens Congressional oversight of the Hatch Act, particularly in instances when the Office of the Special Counsel decides to forgo enforcement. Congressman Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) leads companion legislation in the House of Representatives.
“With President Trump and Elon Musk hellbent on misusing the federal government for their own personal gains and vendettas, it’s never been more important that Congress strengthen the laws we have in place to improve transparency and accountability for the American people. I’m proud to support this bill to hold this administration and future administrations accountable to ensure government works for New Mexico families — not Republicans’ billionaire friends,” said Senator Heinrich.
“The Hatch Act is designed to prevent public officials from using their position for political gain. Now, at this critical moment, the actions of the Trump administration and Elon Musk have shown the American people the importance of accountability and protecting the rule of law,” said Senator Luján. “That is why I am proud to reintroduce my legislation that increases enforcement of the Hatch Act by providing clarity and Congressional oversight for any potential abuses. I look forward to working with my colleagues to pass this legislation to increase accountability of this administration and future ones, and to ensure Americans can have confidence in the public servants who work for them.”
“Unchecked political influence from powerful individuals like President Trump and Elon Musk poses a real threat to our democracy. When these figures and their associates are allowed to operate without consequences or when they attempt to pressure nonpartisan federal workers to serve their political interests, it puts the integrity of our government on the line,” saidCongressman Garcia. “We can’t just sit back and let those in power break the rules that keep our government fair and unbiased. That is why I am proud to lead this bill in the House to make sure these individuals are held accountable and to ensure the Hatch Act is enforced.”
“We need greater transparency at the Office of Special Counsel. This bill will better ensure the OSC can hold career official and political appointees accountable when they violate the law meant to keep partisan politics out of the federal government,” said Dylan Hedtler-Gaudette, Senior Government Affairs Manager, Project On Government Oversight (POGO).
The Hatch Act was enacted in 1939 to prohibit federal employees from participating in specific political activities. The law aims to maintain nonpartisanship in the federal government’s operations, shield federal employees from political influence, and uphold merit-based promotions over political affiliations. However, the U.S Office of Special Counsel, which investigates and prosecutes violations of the Hatch Act, has at times failed to properly enforce this critical statue.
This legislation is endorsed by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and The Project on Government Oversight (POGO).
Source: United States Small Business Administration
ATLANTA – The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) is reminding eligible small businesses and private nonprofit (PNP) organizations in Maryland of the March 31, 2025, deadline to apply for low interest federal disaster loans to offset economic losses caused by the drought beginning on July 16, 2024.
The disaster declaration covers the counties of Allegany, Garrett and Washington in Maryland, as well as Bedford, Fulton and Somerset in Pennsylvania, and Hampshire, Mineral and Morgan in West Virginia.
Under this declaration, SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program is available to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, nurseries, and PNPs that suffered financial losses directly related to the disaster. The SBA is unable to provide disaster loans to agricultural producers, farmers, or ranchers, except for small aquaculture enterprises.
EIDLs are available for working capital needs caused by the disaster and are available even if the business or PNP did not suffer any physical damage. The loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills not paid due to the disaster.
“SBA loans help eligible small businesses and private nonprofits cover operating expenses after a disaster, which is crucial for their recovery,” said Chris Stallings, associate administrator of the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience at the SBA. “These loans not only help business owners get back on their feet but also play a key role in sustaining local economies in the aftermath of a disaster.”
The loan amount can be up to $2 million with interest rates as low as 4% for small businesses and 3.25% for PNPs, with terms up to 30 years. Interest does not accrue, and payments are not due, until 12 months from the date of the first loan disbursement. The SBA sets loan amounts and terms based on each applicant’s financial condition.
To apply online visit sba.gov/disaster. Applicants may also call SBA’s Customer Service Center at (800) 659-2955 or email disastercustomerservice@sba.gov for more information on SBA disaster assistance. For people who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.
The deadline to return economic injury applications is March 31, 2025.
###
About the U.S. Small Business Administration
The U.S. Small Business Administration helps power the American dream of business ownership. As the only go-to resource and voice for small businesses backed by the strength of the federal government, the SBA empowers entrepreneurs and small business owners with the resources and support they need to start, grow or expand their businesses, or recover from a declared disaster. It delivers services through an extensive network of SBA field offices and partnerships with public and private organizations. To learn more, visit www.sba.gov.
The visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House has not gone to plan – at least not to his plan. There were [extraordinary scenes] as a press conference between Zelensky and Trump descended into acrimony, with the US president loudly berating his opposite number, who he accused of “gambling with world war three”.
“You either make a deal or we’re out,” Trump told Zelensky. His vice-president, J.D.Vance, also got in on the act, accusing the Ukrainian president of “litigating in front of the American media”, and saying his approach was “disrespectful”. At one point he asked Zelensky: “Have you said thank you even once?”
Reporters present described the atmosphere as heated with voices raised by both Trump and Vance. The New York Times said the scene was “one of the most dramatic moments ever to play out in public in the Oval Office and underscored the radical break between the United States and Ukraine since Mr Trump took office”.
Underlying the angry exchanges were differences between the Trump administration and the Ukrainian government over the so-called “minerals deal” that Zelensky was scheduled to sign. But any lack of Ukrainian enthusiasm for the deal is understandable.
In its present form, it looks more like a memorandum of understanding that leaves several vital issues to be resolved later. The deal on offer is the creation of will be called a “reconstruction investment fund”, to be jointly owned and managed by the US and Ukraine.
Into the proposed fund will go 50% of the revenue from the exploitation of “all relevant Ukrainian government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian government)” and “other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure)”.
This means that private infrastructure – much of it owned by Ukraine’s wealthy oligarchs – is likely to become part of the deal. This has the potential of further increasing friction between Zelensky and some very powerful Ukrainians.
Meanwhile, US contributions are less clearly defined. The preamble to the agreement makes it clear that Ukraine already owes the US. The very first paragraph notes that “the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022”.
Western and Ukrainian analysts have also pointed out that there may be fewer and less accessible mineral and rare earth deposits in Ukraine than are currently assumed. The working estimates have been based mostly on Soviet-era data.
Since the current draft leaves details on ownership, governance and operations to be determined in a future fund agreement, Trump’s very big deal is at best the first step. Future rounds of negotiations are to be expected.
Statement of intent
From a Ukrainian perspective, this is more of a strength than a weakness. It leaves Kyiv with an opportunity to achieve more satisfactory terms in future rounds of negotiation. Even if any improvements will only be marginal, it keeps the US locked into a process that is, overall, beneficial for Ukraine.
Take the example of security guarantees. The draft agreement offers Ukraine nothing anywhere near Nato membership. But it notes that the US “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace”, adding that: “Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments.”
The significance of this should not be overstated. At its bare minimum, it is an expression of intent by the US that falls short of security guarantees but still gives the US a stake in the survival of Ukraine as an independent state.
But it is an important signal both in terms of what it does and does not do – a signal to Russia, Europe and Ukraine.
Trump does not envisage that the US will give Ukraine security guarantees “beyond very much”. He seems to think that these guarantees can be provided by European troops (the Kremlin has already cast doubts on this idea).
But this does not mean the idea is completely off the table. On the contrary, because the US commitment is so vague, it gives Trump leverage in every direction.
He can use it as a carrot and a stick against Ukraine to get more favourable terms for US returns from the reconstruction investment fund. He can use it to push Europe towards more decisive action to ramp up defence spending by making any US protection for European peacekeepers contingent on more equitable burden-sharing in Nato.
And he can signal to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that the US is serious about making a deal stick – and that higher American economic stakes in Ukraine and corporate presence on the ground would mean US-backed consequences if the Kremlin reneges on a future peace agreement and restarts hostilities.
That these calculations will ultimately lead to the “free, sovereign and secure Ukraine” that the agreement envisages is not a given.
For now, however, despite all the shortcomings and vagueness of the deal on key issues –– and the very public argument between the parties – it still looks like it serves all sides’ interests in moving forward in this direction.
This article has been updated with details of the meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump.
Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.
Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff level agreement (SLA) on the Seventh Review of the 4-year, $15.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board and consistent with its balance-of-payments needs, Ukraine would be expected to draw about US$0.4 billion (SDR 0.3 billion), bringing total disbursements under the program to US$10.1 billion.
Program performance remains strong. All end-December quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) have been met and understandings were reached on a set of policies and reforms to sustain macroeconomic stability. The structural reform agenda continues to make progress, with seven structural benchmarks met, another benchmark implemented with delay, and strong commitments to advance other key reforms.
The outlook remains exceptionally uncertain as the war continues to take a heavy toll on Ukraine’s people, economy, and infrastructure. Despite the challenging environment, the program remains on track on the back of critical external support.
Warsaw, Poland: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Gavin Gray held discussions with the Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv, Ukraine and Warsaw, Poland during February 20-28 on the Seventh Review of the country’s 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Upon the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Gray issued the following statement:
“IMF staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the Seventh Review of the EFF, subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, with Board consideration expected in coming weeks.
“Ukraine’s four-year EFF Arrangement with the IMF continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program in times of exceptionally high uncertainty. Program performance remains strong with all quantitative performance criteria for end-December met, and important progress on the structural agenda due for this review. Reflecting a revised profile of balance of payments needs in 2025, Ukraine has requested to rephase access under its EFF program, shifting IMF financing to future reviews while the overall size of the program remains unchanged.
“The economy has continued to show resilience despite the challenges arising from three years of war in Ukraine. Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.5 percent for 2024, but is expected to moderate to 2-3 percent in 2025, reflecting headwinds from labor constraints, damage to energy infrastructure, and the persistence of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Inflation has continued to rise, reaching 12.9 percent y/y in January, mainly due to rising food and labor costs. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised the policy rate by a cumulative 150 bps since December in response. Gross international reserves reached US$43 billion as of January 2025, reflecting continued large external official support. Risks remain exceptionally high given uncertainty on the war and the prospects for peace and recovery.
“The 2025 budget targets a deficit (excluding grants) of 19.6 percent of GDP and remains the anchor for fiscal policy this year. It incorporates the additional revenue derived from the increase in tobacco excise taxes and enactment of this tax policy change is a requirement for completion of the review. Financing the large fiscal deficit will require significant and timely external support, notably from the G7’s ERA initiative, to support macroeconomic stability. Responding to high budget risks will require preparedness with offsetting measures; in particular broad-based, durable, and efficient revenue measures and accelerated implementation of Ukraine’s National Revenue Strategy (NRS)
Restoring medium-term fiscal sustainability requires determined implementation of reforms to mobilize domestic revenues, tackle tax evasion and avoidance, and improve the investment climate. Tax policy reforms need also to be coupled with improvements in tax administration with continued reforms to the state customs service (SCS) and state tax service (STS). Restoring debt sustainability hinges on this revenue-based fiscal adjustment and continued implementation of the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy (where completing the treatment of the GDP warrants remains important). The upcoming 2026-2028 budget declaration that is to be submitted to Parliament in June will be an important opportunity to provide both the context and strategic objectives of the medium-term fiscal strategy.
“Given the risks from rising inflation, the recent increases in the policy rate by the NBU are appropriate. Further action would be warranted if inflation accelerates further or inflation expectations deteriorate. The exchange rate should increasingly act as a shock absorber. Maintaining adequate reserves is a priority, particularly in view of risks to the outlook.
“The independence, competence, and credibility of anti-corruption and judicial institutions should continue to be enhanced. Parliamentary adoption this week of the law establishing the High Administrative Court, a benchmark under the program, is a landmark step in this direction. Swift enactment of the law would pave the way for prompt establishment of the court.
“Effective public investment management (PIM) is critical for post-war recovery, reconstruction, and growth against a backdrop of limited fiscal space and tough demographic realities. To tackle these challenges, the government of Ukraine is implementing a comprehensive PIM framework that is in line with best international practices. A strategy-driven and transparent approach is essential to overcome absorption capacity constraints and allocate scarce resources efficiently.
“The financial sector remains stable, but continued vigilance is warranted given elevated risks. Developing financial markets infrastructure will be critical to support prompt reconstruction and recovery by facilitating much needed private investment, including attracting foreign capital. Comprehensive consultation and collaboration with financial market participants is essential to facilitate preparation of a prioritized reform agenda, which the NBU has begun in collaboration with other relevant stakeholders.
“The mission met with Finance Minister Marchenko, National Bank of Ukraine Governor Pyshnyy, other government ministers, public officials, and civil society. The mission thanks them and their technical staff for the excellent collaboration and constructive discussions.”
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments
Press release
Ministerial appointment: 28 February 2025
The King has been pleased to approve the following appointments:
The King has been pleased to approve the following appointment:
Baroness Chapman of Darlington as a Minister of State (Minister for International Development) in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Baroness Chapman will attend Cabinet.
The Rt Hon Anneliese Dodds MP has left the Government.
Notes to editors:
Baroness Chapman will also retain her existing portfolio responsibilities.
Stephen Doughty MP will cover Official Development Assistance in the House of Commons.
Hamish Falconer MP (previously unpaid) will be paid as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
[. By fulfilling a promise to cut personal income taxes, Albertans will take more money home on every paycheque.
Starting this year, Alberta taxpayers will benefit from a new eight per cent personal tax bracket on income up to $60,000, down from the previous rate of 10 per cent. When this new tax cut takes effect, taxpayers will save up to $750 in 2025, while two-income families will see savings of up to $1,500, which will help them and their families with the cost of groceries, housing, utility bills or other priorities.
“Over the past few years Albertans have faced an unprecedented cost of living crisis, largely due to the irresponsible actions of the federal Liberal government. That’s why Alberta’s government is taking action to cut personal income taxes for two million hard-working Albertans – fulfilling our campaign promise – so that Albertans can keep more of their hard-earned dollars to help support their families.”
“By fast-tracking this new eight per cent tax bracket, Albertans can keep more of their hard-earned money this year. This is just one more way we’re helping Albertans find their way forward during turbulent economic times.”
“Premier Danielle Smith keeping her promise to cut Alberta’s income tax is great news, because it means huge savings for most working families. Families are fighting to afford basics right now, and if they can save more than $1,500 per year thanks to this big tax cut, that would cover a month’s rent or more than a month’s worth of groceries.”
Overall, this personal income tax cut is expected to save Albertans $1.2 billion in 2025, with savings rising to $1.4 billion in 2028. Most taxpayers will start to see the benefit of the tax cut on their paycheques after July 1, when payroll withholdings are adjusted.
“Albertans know best where their hard-earned dollars are needed most. By leaving more money in their pockets, we’re helping ensure families can meet their unique needs and achieve greater prosperity for a brighter future.”
With low personal and corporate income taxes, low fuel tax and no sales tax, Albertans and Alberta businesses generally pay lower overall taxes than those in other provinces. In 2025-26, Albertans and Alberta businesses would pay at least $20.1 billion less in taxes than they would if Alberta had the same tax system as any other province.
HOUSTON – A 27-year-old woman has been sentenced for conspiracy to commit wire fraud, announced U.S. Attorney Nicholas J. Ganjei.
Khalia Douglas pleaded guilty June 13, 2024.
U.S. District Judge Alfred H. Bennett has now ordered Douglas to serve 24 months in federal prison to be immediately followed by three years of supervised release. She must also pay $318,361.11 in restitution. At the hearing, the court heard additional evidence that described her criminal history and how her fraudulent scheme lasted 15 months. The court also heard how Douglas submitted applications for approximately 100 different individuals, and that without her, they would not have been possible. In handing down the sentence, the court noted her fraudulent scheme took advantage of programs that were designed to help those in need during a troubling time for the entire country.
From March 2020 until June 2021, Douglas conspired with others to submit false and fraudulent applications to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Small Business Administration (SBA), the U.S. government and a bank for financial assistance.
At the time of her plea, Douglas admitting to using her Instagram account “GoGettaKaee” to post multiple stories advertising her involvement in filing fraudulent SBA COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) applications. Such posts include “SBA is back open. $350 for method. Yes im doing applications $100 upfront & $2k when your money hit. You’ll need a real bank account.”
Douglas accepted payment for her services via CashApp where her clients would make payments to her and send a screenshot of the completed payment as proof.
She also submitted false EIDL applications for herself and false Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) applications for another.
Further investigation revealed Douglas filed eight FEMA disaster assistance applications related to Hurricane Laura.
Additionally, Douglas committed several other fraudulent acts like filing false unemployment benefits in Kansas, using another person’s name to rent her apartment and using another person’s bank account to deposit counterfeit checks.
Authorities discovered her phone and computer contained a multitude of various documents and discussions of fraud in text messages, emails relating to fraudulent applications, false tax documents, images of counterfeit government identification documents and more.
Due to her actions, the EIDL, PPP and the bank lost a total of $318,361.11 with an attempted loss amount of $514,415.
Douglas received approximately $23,775 for her services.
She was permitted to remain on bond and voluntarily surrender to a U.S. Bureau of Prisons facility to be determined in the near future.
The Department of Homeland Security-Office of Inspector General conducted the investigation. Assistant U.S. Attorneys Rodolfo Ramirez and Elizabeth Wyman prosecuted the case.
A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.
The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.
San José:An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Mr. Ding Ding, held the 2025 Article IV consultation with the Costa Rican authorities during February 18-28. At the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Ding issued the following statement:
Costa Rica is one of the fastest-growing economies in the Western Hemisphere, achieving notable economic success in recent years. GDP growth has averaged above 5 percent since 2021, outpacing regional peers and contributing to lower poverty and unemployment. Over the same period, public debt fell by an impressive 8 percentage points of GDP to below 60 percent of GDP. These successes are fruits of good macroeconomic policies, wide-ranging reforms in the context of becoming a member of the OECD, two successfully completed IMF-supported programs, and a strategic focus on exports and economic diversification. Growth is projected to remain strong at about 4 percent for 2025.
Inflation is showing encouraging signs of returning towards the inflation target,following decisive monetary policy easing by the BCCR. Having been near zero since mid-2024, headline inflation has begun to rise and is projected to reach the BCCR’s tolerance band in mid-2025 and the 3 percent target within a year. However, core inflation remains subdued and there are downside risks, primarily stemming from low inflation expectations becoming entrenched below the target. Upside risks could arise from possible commodity price increases and/or supply-side disruptions.
The BCCR’s forward-looking data-dependent approach has proven effective and its inflation targeting regime is working well. At the current monetary policy rate, inflation is expected to be 3 percent by 2026Q1. If the convergence of inflation to the 3 percent target weakens in the coming months, there is room for the BCCR to cut the policy rate further. Credit growth has been strong. If there are signs of excess credit growth especially associated with FX loans, macroprudential measures should be tightened to mitigate potential risks to financial stability.
It is important to further strengthen the BCCR’s autonomy, governance, and operational framework. This would be achieved by approving legislative proposals to improve BCCR governance, transparency, and accountability, and institutionalize the central bank’s de facto autonomy.
The exchange rate should be allowed to adjust more flexibly to market conditions. The BCCR accumulated US$ 920 million in international reserves during 2024, and reserve coverage is now comfortable by multiple metrics. A further accumulation of international reserves is unwarranted and would impose unnecessary costs over time. Moreover, frequent foreign exchange intervention can weaken monetary policy transmission and hinder foreign exchange market development. Concerted efforts including legal reforms are needed to deepen FX markets and strengthen the non-financial public sector’s ability to manage currency risks, reducing its reliance on the BCCR as an intermediary for FX transactions. Alongside the planned reform to restructure existing pension funds into generational funds, regulatory limits on foreign investments by local pension funds need to be updated. Adjustments to these limits should be phased in and supported by FX market development.
There is scope to further capitalize on the significant progress on financial sector oversight. Indicators of financial soundness remain comfortable, notwithstanding the resolution of two small non-bank financial institutions last year. These episodes highlighted the importance of a strong supervisory and resolution framework. The Legislative Assembly should, therefore, pass the proposed amendments to the bank resolution and deposit insurance law that would further strengthen supervisory and resolution powers and enhance the crisis management framework.
Although public debt fell to below 60 percent of GDP in 2024, the task of rebuilding fiscal space is not yet complete. The debt ratio fell in part due to some drawdown of cash balances and transfers of cash balances by decentralized and autonomous entities to the Treasury Single Account (which lowered financing needs). However, the primary surplus fell in 2024 due to temporary factors and the regrettable reductions of the vehicle property tax (marchamo) and corporate tax base. An unwinding of temporary factors is expected to help the primary balance rise to around 1½ percent of GDP this year. A higher primary balance is essential to bring debt down further, reduce interest costs, and create room for additional spending. While spending should be less than the ceiling permitted by the fiscal rule, the higher primary balance should still allow for some increases in priority areas like infrastructure, child and adult care (which will help boost female labor market participation), and investments in skills training for vulnerable groups (which will help reduce dependency on social assistance).
Tax reforms could improve the fairness and efficiency of the system while raising resources for both debt reduction and somewhat higher spending. However, revenue-increasing bills presented over the last five years that would also have increased progressivity and bolstered dynamism have not been viewed favorably by legislators. These have included proposals to reduce VAT and income tax exemptions (such as on the salario escolar and for lottery winnings) and to bring income from self-employment, salaries, and pensions under a single threshold while raising the top marginal rate. These bills warrant renewed consideration as higher revenues would allow faster increases in social and capital spending. At the same time, we are worried that various Legislative Assembly bills are reducing revenues.
Full implementation of the public employment bill and debt management reforms would improve spending quality and reduce interest costs. Legislative proposals aimed at amending the public employment law could significantly undermine progress in containing the public-sector wage bill. Institutions that have not yet fully implemented the public employment law should do so without further delay to ensure its benefits are broadened to beyond the central government. Legal reforms to permit access to international sovereign debt markets and grant the executive branch more flexibility in issuing external debt would also be valuable. There have been welcome improvements in the quality of government finance statistics, which are expected to be used in the setting of fiscal policies.
A comprehensive solution is needed to resolve the dispute between Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social (CCSS) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) over social security claims. The outstanding claim is due to an unfunded expansion of beneficiaries and CCSS’s unilateral decisions to raise the government’s contribution. Addressing this issue requires urgent improvements in the CCSS’s registry systems so as to allow for an accurate tracking of outlays and beneficiaries. Moreover, the CCSS and the MoF should clarify the scope of healthcare services and pension benefits that are currently covered by the budget while identifying additional funding sources as needed to ensure that the healthcare and pension systems are actuarially sound. Strengthening CCSS governance will be essential to ensure that any future changes to the social security system include a thorough assessment of the fiscal and labor market implications of such changes. There is also scope to enhance the accountability of the CCSS, the transparency of their operations, and the simplicity of the system, in line with international best practice. These reforms will be critical to safeguard the long-run sustainability of the social security system as the population ages.
Advancing supply-side reforms can help sustain Costa Rica’s impressive economic performance by addressing key bottlenecks to growth. To tackle skill shortages, particularly in high-tech industries, it is essential to accelerate efforts to reduce skills mismatches, align school curricula with industry needs, promote dual education (including apprenticeship programs) and bilingual education, and improve adult secondary education graduation rates. The recent reduction of the minimum contribution base for part-time workers has helped encourage formal employment but there is scope to lower the high tax wedge on labor, substituting for alternative revenue sources. Enhancing infrastructure quality and maintenance would further strengthen potential growth. In this regard, integrating climate considerations into public investment decisions is already making infrastructure more resilient against natural disasters. Given the substantial additional funding needed to upgrade infrastructure, approving and implementing the new legislation on public private partnerships is critical. Additionally, ongoing reforms to facilitate private-sector electricity provision, including diversification into non-hydroelectric renewables, will make electricity more affordable and less vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall.
The IMF team is grateful to the Costa Rican authorities and other counterparts for the productive discussions and hospitality during the mission.
Costa Rica: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
Projections
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Output and Prices
(Annual percentage change)
Real GDP
4.6
5.1
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.6
GDP deflator
6.3
-0.1
0.0
2.9
3.2
3.2
Consumer prices (period average)
8.3
0.5
-0.4
2.0
3.0
3.0
Savings and Investment
(In percent of GDP)
Gross domestic saving
14.4
13.8
14.3
14.1
14.1
14.3
Gross domestic investment
17.7
15.3
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.8
External Sector
Current account balance
-3.3
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
Trade balance
-6.7
-3.7
-2.7
-3.0
-2.8
-3.1
Financial account balance
-2.5
-0.7
-0.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
Foreign direct investment, net
-4.4
-4.3
-4.0
-5.3
-5.5
-5.4
Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollars)
8,724
13,261
14,181
15,056
16,077
16,827
External debt
50.7
43.3
38.6
35.5
33.3
30.9
Public Finances
Central government primary balance
2.1
1.6
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.7
Central government overall balance
-2.8
-3.2
-3.8
-3.0
-2.7
-2.3
Central government debt
63.0
61.1
59.8
59.4
58.4
57.1
Money and Credit
Credit to the private sector (percent change)
3.3
1.9
6.4
7.5
7.0
7.0
Monetary base 1/
8.0
7.9
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
Broad money
47.5
47.4
49.4
50.1
50.3
50.9
Memorandum Items
Nominal GDP (billions of colones) 2/
44,810
47,059
49,116
52,531
56,237
60,132
Output gap (as percent of potential GDP)
-0.3
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
GDP per capita (US$)
13,240
16,390
17,901
19,013
20,009
21,045
Unemployment rate
11.7
7.3
6.9
8.0
8.5
9.0
Sources: Central Bank of Costa Rica, and Fund staff estimates.
1/ Includes currency issued and required reserves.
2/ National account data reflect the revision of the benchmark year to 2017 for the chained volume measures, published in January 2021.
Since the Labour government came to power in the UK past year, its international relations have been pursued under the banner of what foreign secretary David Lammy calls “progressive realism”. This involves “using realist means to pursue progressive ends”, including taking “pragmatic steps” to improve relations with other states.
Lammy rejects the notion that “idealism has no place in foreign policy” but also argues that the UK should be “realistic about the state of the world and the country’s role in it”.
The visit of the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, to the White House to meet US president Donald Trump has been the biggest test of this approach. Outlining a set of foreign policy principles is one thing, acting on them is another.
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In practice, progressive and realist foreign policies can pull in different directions. Combining them might be a form of “cakeism” – you usually can’t be a realist and have your progressivism too. Sometimes, however, clever diplomacy can find a way.
Did Starmer find that way in his response to Trump’s ideas on negotiating with Russia without a defined role for Ukraine?
Progressive realism in action
Progressivism is associated with a commitment to the rule of international law. In the case of Ukraine, that would mean opposing any peace deal that rewarded Russia’s aggression or the concession of land to Russia.
Progressivism is also associated with a support for international criminal law. The progressive in this case might be opposed to any peace deal that did not see Russian president Vladimir Putin hauled before the International Criminal Court (the same court that Trump has sanctioned).
Realism, on the other hand, is sometimes associated with a foreign policy committed to the promotion of self-interest, defined narrowly as the material wellbeing of the nation. Faced with the threat of further US tariffs, and the impact they would have on the government’s economic priorities, the realist would probably recommend that the UK do absolutely nothing to upset Trump.
Starmer has so far managed to walk this particular tightrope with a “pragmatic” form of progressivism. He remains committed to the vision of a world order based on international law and so is not realist in that sense. He was not willing to betray Ukraine just to be friends with Trump and avoid US tariffs, for instance.
But he was pragmatic because he realised the only way to advance progressive principles was to persuade Trump that they set out the path to a sustainable peace. For this reason, my colleague Jamie Gaskarth and I have argued UK policy might better be described as “progressive pragmatism”.
Starmer has a broader definition of the national interest than that sometimes associated with realism. It is in the UK’s interest to maintain an international order based on laws that codify the progressive principles of national self-determination and international justice.
From this perspective, the UK is right not to turn its back on Ukrainian self-determination by jumping on Trump’s bandwagon. That is a slippery slope. It can lead to a world order that is unstable because it is dictated by the great powers. Ukraine today, Greenland, Palestine, Taiwan tomorrow.
His pragmatism was very much on display in Washington, however. It meant staying close to the US not just to avoid tariffs, which Starmer appears to have done with the help of an invitation from King Charles for a state visit to the UK. It meant working with Trump’s ideas on Russia to persuade him that supporting Ukraine is the way to a “durable” peace.
Durable peace here is not simply a question of satisfying Russia and having sufficient military force on the ground (the so-called US “backstop”) to deter future Russian aggression. It must also respect the political power of a progressive principle: national self-determination.
To conclude a peace that does not include the Ukrainian people is not just a moral betrayal, it is politically imprudent because it creates grievances, which become causes of conflict. That does not mean the only way forward is to return to the pre-2014 status quo, but it does mean Kyiv’s involvement in peace negotiations has to be meaningful, not symbolic.
In 1990 the transatlantic positions were reversed. UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher was troubled by the fall of Berlin wall. She proposed that the occupying powers that had divided Germany in 1945 decide the terms of reunification.
The administration of the then US president, George Bush senior, had a broader understanding of history and the future. They realised that a dictated peace after the first world war contributed to the grievances that led to the second.
On that occasion the US approach prevailed. Germany was allowed to reunify on its own terms and choose its own alliances. It was a progressive and pragmatic solution that was committed to national self-determination and it set the foundations for the durable peace that self-described realists thought would never happen.
Starmer made a point in Washington of congratulating Trump for breaking the impasse. He was rewarded when the president suggested that a trade deal is now on the table. As he flies back across the Atlantic, Starmer might continue the flattery by comparing Trump’s actions to the way Ronald Reagan sowed the seeds of the new world order in the 1980s.
He should recall, however, that the details of that new order were subsequently worked out by the administration of George Bush Snr., which had a pragmatic respect for national self-determination. That now means supporting Ukraine in any upcoming negotiation.
Jason Ralph has in the past received funding from Research Councils UK and the EU. He does not currently hold a research grant. He is a member of the UK Labour Party.
Keir Starmer was only the second European leader to visit Donald Trump’s second White House. The first, France’s Emmanuel Macron, had barely taken off when Starmer touched down, but had already raised the bar by behaving regally in front of the world’s media alongside his fellow president in the Oval Office.
In manner, Macron manifested his eight years in office (four of which were already spent with Trump in the White House). Starmer has had a mere eight months. But it was a challenge, judged in its own immediate terms, that the prime minister met.
Raising the curtain, in a highly untypical coup de théâtre, Starmer flourished – as few can – a letter from the King to give to the president, and then effectively forced Trump to read it on camera and agree to the invitation enclosed within.
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Starmer of course knew he was nudging an open door: much came down to assiduous preparation. The British Embassy, under a finally confirmed ambassador Peter Mandelson, worked overtime to choreograph and lubricate.
Starmer had been wise in contradicting Trump only indirectly. Nothing could be gained – as president Zelenskyy already demonstrated – from doing so publicly. So early an offer of a state visit to the UK ran the risk of appearing desperate, but was mitigated by its also being “unprecedented” as the second to be offered to Trump. A word recently worn smooth by over-use, there was nevertheless another precedent set in the suggestion of a pre-state visit visit between Trump and the king. With this president, more than any other, royal diplomacy is a critical national asset.
Starmer’s announcement of an increase in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 worked similarly well. That funds are to be diverted from foreign aid for that purpose the Labour leadership deemed as being politically cost-free – or at least good value – politically. It was, indeed, almost Trumpian. The relevant minister disagreed.
It is hard to recall greater shifts in a country’s foreign policy in so short a space of time. Insofar as one can discern Trump’s purposefulness, it is to create pandemonium, which has the secondary effect of galvanising actors to act – not least for fear of further pandemonium.
Thus last week the US voting with Russia, Iran and North Korea, and not with Britain, at the UN. The Trump administration’s designation of choice is now “the Russia-Ukraine conflict”, as if it were merely a border dispute.
Therefore, ahead of Starmer’s arrival in Washington, he was faced with the US apparently aligning itself with a country his describes as “the most acute threat” to the UK. “Jaw-dropping” was the adjective of choice for more than a few informed observers who had thought themselves prepared for whatever may transpire.
The actors Trump primarily wishes to galvanise are European leaders, recalcitrants he thinks should do more to keep their own peace. For Macron to have been told that Putin would accept Nato forces policing the peace was scene-changing, but the only witness to the veracity of that news was Trump, who exhales untruths as easily as he breathes. The Russians soon denied it.
Macron’s offer of France’s (non-Nato) airborne nuclear force complemented Starmer’s commitment to British boots on the ground and helped him elicit Trump’s commitment to mutual defence.
But Trump guaranteeing the peace that Starmer and Macron are willing to police was the cherry conspicuously missing from the cake. The suggestion was subject to a classic Trump equivocation (we’ll always support the Brits, but they won’t need our support).
For the British government, July’s election already resembles a hospital pass. The effect of 20% tariffs on GDP growth could be catastrophic. Trump’s talk of tariff-free trade deals was more than expected, but one such was offered last time without much being doing about, before it was cancelled by President Biden. This time, Trump has said his vice president is drawing up a plan, even that being absent before.
And in a categorical demonstration of the benefits of lobbying there was effective presidential approval of the Chagos islands deal, simultaneously shooting one of Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s few foxes stone dead.
Warm words
Thus has passed the most potentially difficult meeting of a prime minister and a president since Suez. Nothing else comes close. Cliche – eggshells, tightropes – proliferated in previews.
When Starmer was last at the White House, in September, he had asked Biden for a meeting about Ukraine and received it. However unsatisfactory the outcome, public face was maintained. Trump has the ability – and the form – to have humiliated in a way which would permanently have scarred Starmer. That he did the opposite ought not to distract from the vulnerability of the supplicant.
Instead there were encomia from Trump as to the two countries – “special relationship”, “unique friendship”, “fantastic country”, “I’ve always cared” – and of Starmer – “a special man”, “a very special person”. And in describing Starmer’s accent as “beautiful”, the president revealed the hitherto unknown allure of the adenoidal.
Power plays sit ill with Starmer, but he nonetheless ventured two corrections from his armchiar, one to a statement made by the president and another to one made by the vice-president. The subsequent praise for Starmer’s negotiating tenacity from Trump, that much-vaunted artist of the deal, was as priceless – and unfamiliar – as the following morning’s front pages.
However successful this visit, however, nothing can be assumed, still less guaranteed. That the British government would so extensively war-game a meeting with its closest ally tells its own tale, or, rather a tale perhaps yet to be told. At this moment, for the next four years the relationship at least feels more secure than it did a few days before the trip. By such diurnal turns are the affairs of allies now measured.
Martin Farr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andre Spicer, Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London
When Oscar-winning screenwriter William Goldman was asked whether it was possible to predict a hit film, he responded with three words that have become a Hollywood maxim: “Nobody knows anything.” He went on to explain that “not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work”.
Although Goldman’s famous phrase might resonate through the film business, it doesn’t stop people cooking up theories around which films might succeed at the annual Academy of Motion Picture Awards. Over the years, a range of theories have appeared, including: Oscar winners are not always the best films; there is an Oscar-worthy format that winners follow; and that winning an Oscar is actually a long-term curse.
Although there is a great deal of speculation about such theories, it’s less clear what the evidence actually says about them. To find out, I took a look at the rapidly growing field of “Oscarology” – the scientific study of the Academy Awards.
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One common theory is that it is entirely predictable who the Oscars will go to. Interestingly, this seems to have some truth to it. One statistical analysis found that by tracking a range of factors, it was possible to predict the winner of the Academy Awards in the four major categories with an overall accuracy of 69%.
Nickel Boys, one of the best picture nominees.
Factors which go into making these predictions include whether the nominee won a Golden Globe or Directors Guild award, and their previous nominations for an Oscar. Past success is a strong indicator of future success, with one important exception: having previously won an Academy Award means a nominee for best actor or best actress is much less likely to win again.
A second theory is that winning an Oscar is a golden ticket to big financial rewards. This is indeed correct. A study found there is a substantial boost in US box office earnings following a win in the the best supporting actor/actress, best actor/actress and best picture categories.
Best picture nominee Conclave stars Ralph Fiennes, also nominated for best actor.
Further research has found that Oscar nominations really make a positive impact on box office receipts – while actually winning the award gives a more modest boost. Interestingly, winning an award does not always translate to success in other parts the world. One study found that Oscar winners that were comedies performed better in Asian markets, but dramas performed worse.
The next theory is the idea that Oscar winners follow a particular format. Researchers have indeed found there is an Oscar-worthy format which some filmmakers follow. The “Oscar bait” format uses genres like war movies, historical epics and biographies, as well as plot elements such as war crimes, disabilities, political intrigue and show business.
Mikey Madison, star of best picture nominee Anora, is also up for best actress.
However, making a film using this Oscar-worthy format is not a guarantee of success. Films employing this concept which were nominated for an award received significantly greater financial returns. However, those using the Oscar-bait format which missed out on a nomination typically made large losses.
Then comes the theory that winning an Oscar is more about the quality of networks rather than the quality of the film. Again, there is some truth to this. Researchers have found that one way to improve the chances of winning an Oscar is to be part of film industry networks and work alongside people who have already won awards.
As well as a best picture nomination, Wicked’s Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo are also nominated.
There are some indicators that Oscars do not necessarily go to the best-quality movies. One analysis which compared Oscar winners to lists of 100 best movies of all time found that only 26% of films which appeared on all three main lists of best movies were also Oscar winners.
This research also notes that some movies which are staples of lists of classic movies (such as Singing in the Rain) were not even nominated for the best picture Oscar. What this suggests is that winning an Oscar does not always mean a film will be seen as a classic – and vice versa.
Best picture nominee I’m Still Here sees Brazilian Fernanda Torres nominated for best actress.
The final theory is that there is an “Oscar curse” – that winning an Oscar leads to personal and professional tragedy. This theory is largely incorrect. Researchers have found that Oscar winners live about one year longer than their less successful peers. Others have found that winning an Academy Award leads to greater professional success, with Oscar winners and nominees appearing in more films than their non-winning peers.
However, one area of truth in the idea of an Oscar curse is for men in their personal lives. Nominees and winners of the best actor award had a higher divorce rate than their peers.
Theories around the Oscars may prove to be not entirely correct – but they do provide a useful approximation of which films will triumph. Past performance, social networks and formula-following all seem to be good indicators of who will succeed. Perhaps Goldman’s advice that “no one knows anything” is not entirely true.
Andre Spicer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The Vegan Tigress, a new play by Claire Parker, shines a spotlight on the largely-forgotten feminist fairytale writer Mary De Morgan (1850-1907). And the timing is particularly apt. The show opened, at London’s Bread & Roses Theatre, in the lead up to International Women’s Day and during the year of the 175th anniversary of De Morgan’s birth.
The production, by LynchPin Theatre Company, is part of a wider cultural project to celebrate underappreciated Victorian women writers, actors and activists. Parker has also written plays on feminist actor Ellen Terry and her daughter Edie Craig.
It also speaks to a general resurgence of interest in the creative De Morgan family. Mary’s father was Augustus De Morgan, the mathematician and logician and her brother was the potter, tile designer and novelist William De Morgan.
The Bread and Roses Theatre – an intimate space above a lively Clapham pub – creates an immersive experience. The audience shares De Morgan’s modest London quarters along with the accidentally summoned ghost of her ex-lover’s formidable mother: Lady Tuttle (played by Edie Campbell).
Providing comedic value, Tuttle deploys her spectral status to prank De Morgan (played by Parker), but her presence also highlights the stark differences between them, staging a debate between feminist and patriarchal versions of Victorian-Edwardian womanhood.
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Shrill-voiced, upper-class and tightly corseted, Tuttle opposes women’s education and refers to suffragettes as “hyenas in petticoats and bitter spinsters”.
Striding across the stage swathed in silk skirts and a velvet, lace-trimmed bodice, she is both a mesmerising and somewhat villainous matriarch. By contrast, De Morgan is an irreverent free spirit who wears bohemian clothing, admires revolutionaries and has been a suffragist since she was 16.
The show portrays De Morgan as a pioneering professional woman, writing feverishly at a desk flanked by piles of beautiful antiquarian books. Parker and Campbell are hypnotic in their imaginative retellings and performances of De Morgan’s stories such as the The Hair Tree (1877), which are woven into the play.
The Vegan Tigress transports the audience into fantastical realms, fusing eerie lighting with dazzling props and sound effects – thunder, birdsong, clamouring voices.
With impressive ease, the actors shape-shift into bizarre animal forms – a puppet parrot, a tortured tiger and a grotesque tortoise. Together they illuminate the sociopolitical subtexts of De Morgan’s stories.
The trailer for The Vegan Tigress.
Her subversive tale from 1877, A Toy Princess (which Parker describes in the play), critiques doll-like ideals of femininity, prefigures the feminist fairy tales of Angela Carter and resonates with the Barbiemania that surrounded the release of the Barbie film in 2023.
In literature and in life, De Morgan resists conventional narratives of marriage and motherhood, enacting alternative destinies for women.
Especially successful as a visual manifestation of the stories’ transformative power is the simultaneously symbolic and literal change we witness in Lady Tuttle.
The more she reads The Windfairies (1900, one of three fairy tale collections by De Morgan) and political publications (Votes for Women), the less straitlaced she becomes – literally. Her corset unbuttons and her tied hair loosens. Despite being a ghost, Lady Tuttle comes alive as her mind expands, testifying to the powerful potential of reading and writing.
In joyful and poignant moments of female bonding in the second half of the play, Tuttle and De Morgan dance the tango, and embark arm-in-arm on the trip of a lifetime to Egypt, where De Morgan worked in real life in a girls’ reformatory. The show becomes a celebration of female creativity, companionship and community.
At the play’s close, the fourth wall is broken and the audience is addressed by De Morgan as “people from the future”. It prompts a reflection on how far we have come since first-wave feminism, but also how far we still have to go (given #MeToo and the reversal of Roe v Wade, the US Supreme Court ruling that legalised abortion across the States in 1973), making Parker’s revival of De Morgan timely and important.
If De Morgan’s legacy is, as she soliloquises, “arming lost, disenfranchised girls and women with the tools to stand their ground”, what will ours be?
Lucy Ella Rose does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has arrived in Washington for talks with his US counterpart, Donald Trump. One of the key issues on their agenda is the “very big deal” announced by the US president on February 25. This deal would give the United States access to Ukraine’s critical mineral and rare earth deposits in return for continuing US support.
Trump has made sure his domestic audience understands that – as he told his first cabinet meeting on February 26 – in contrast to his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, he’s getting something out of Kyiv in return for the support the US has given Ukraine in the past.
The message coming from the Ukrainian side was a bit more circumspect. Zelensky took pains to emphasise that the deal was still a draft and that its successful conclusion would depend on the outcome of talks with Trump.
The lack of Ukrainian enthusiasm for the deal is justified. In its present form, it looks more like a memorandum of understanding that leaves several vital issues to be resolved later. The deal on offer is the creation of will be called a “reconstruction investment fund”, to be jointly owned and managed by the US and Ukraine.
Into the proposed fund will go 50% of the revenue from the exploitation of “all relevant Ukrainian government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian government)” and “other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure)”.
This means that private infrastructure – much of it owned by Ukraine’s wealthy oligarchs – is likely to become part of the deal. This has the potential of further increasing friction between Zelensky and some very powerful Ukrainians.
Meanwhile, US contributions are less clearly defined. The preamble to the agreement makes it clear that Ukraine already owes the US. The very first paragraph notes that “the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022”.
Western and Ukrainian analysts have also pointed out that there may be fewer and less accessible mineral and rare earth deposits in Ukraine than are currently assumed. The working estimates have been based mostly on Soviet-era data.
Since the current draft leaves details on ownership, governance and operations to be determined in a future fund agreement, Trump’s very big deal is at best the first step. Future rounds of negotiations are to be expected.
Statement of intent
From a Ukrainian perspective, this is more of a strength than a weakness. It leaves Kyiv with an opportunity to achieve more satisfactory terms in future rounds of negotiation. Even if any improvements will only be marginal, it keeps the US locked into a process that is, overall, beneficial for Ukraine.
Take the example of security guarantees. The draft agreement offers Ukraine nothing anywhere near Nato membership. But it notes that the US “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace”, adding that: “Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments.”
The significance of this should not be overstated. At its bare minimum, it is an expression of intent by the US that falls short of security guarantees but still gives the US a stake in the survival of Ukraine as an independent state.
But it is an important signal both in terms of what it does and does not do – a signal to Russia, Europe and Ukraine.
Trump does not envisage that the US will give Ukraine security guarantees “beyond very much”. He seems to think that these guarantees can be provided by European troops (the Kremlin has already cast doubts on this idea).
But this does not mean the idea is completely off the table. On the contrary, because the US commitment is so vague, it gives Trump leverage in every direction.
He can use it as a carrot and a stick against Ukraine to get more favourable terms for US returns from the reconstruction investment fund. He can use it to push Europe towards more decisive action to ramp up defence spending by making any US protection for European peacekeepers contingent on more equitable burden-sharing in Nato.
And he can signal to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that the US is serious about making a deal stick – and that higher American economic stakes in Ukraine and corporate presence on the ground would mean US-backed consequences if the Kremlin reneges on a future peace agreement and restarts hostilities.
That these calculations will ultimately lead to the “free, sovereign and secure Ukraine” that the agreement envisages is not a given.
For now, however, despite all its shortcomings and vagueness on key issues, it looks like it serves all sides’ interests in moving forward in this direction, albeit at a snail’s pace.
Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.
Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments
Press release
PM call with President of Egypt Abdel Fattah El-Sisi: 28 February 2025
The Prime Minister spoke to President of Egypt Abdel Fattah El-Sisi this afternoon.
The Prime Minister spoke to President of Egypt Abdel Fattah El-Sisi this afternoon.
The Prime Minister offered reflections on his visit to the US, where he held positive and productive talks with President Trump.
On the situation in Gaza, the leaders agreed on their hopes for the ceasefire to become a lasting peace and for Gaza to be rebuilt. The Prime Minister reiterated his view that Palestinians must be allowed to return to their homes in Gaza, and that a two-state solution was the only way to deliver a secure and stable future for the region.
Turning to wider issues, the Prime Minister and the President discussed the importance of their countries’ strategic relationship, including on trade and investment. They looked forward to building on this relationship further to deliver significant benefits for both the UK and Egypt.
The Prime Minister discussed the case of British national Alaa Abd El-Fattah with President Sisi. He pressed for Alaa’s release, having met his mother Laila Soueif in recent weeks.
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments
News story
The UK-UAE strengthen their cooperation on illicit finance
Security Minister, Dan Jarvis, this week visited the UAE to continue the two nations’ shared aim to tackle illicit finance and counter terrorism financing, promoting security for all citizens.
The Security Minister met with Minister of State in the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, His Excellency Ahmed bin Ali Al-Sayegh, and completed a significant visit, including meeting with the Dubai Police Commander in Chief.
These meetings marked a significant step forward in the UK and UAE’s ongoing shared efforts to further deliver on the UK-UAE Partnership to tackle illicit financial flows. Both parties agreed to increase judicial cooperation, and ensure the continuous alignment in their approach to illicit finance.
It reaffirmed the UK and UAE’s commitment and ambition to increase cooperation and to build a stronger, more effective partnership in the fight against illicit finance, reinforcing both nations’ roles as leaders in global efforts to tackle this threat.
Security Minister, Dan Jarvis, said:
The Government understands the importance of international cooperation in tracking, intercepting, and stopping the flow of illicit funds between the UK and UAE.
This partnership remains critical to our nations’ missions for countering global crimes and protecting national security, which is the foundation of our Plan for Change.
The UK and UAE have worked to target the financial infrastructures that organised crime groups heavily rely on. This includes the work of the Combined Anti-Money Laundering Operational Team (CAMLOT), a joint initiative designed to tackle money laundering operations and identify hidden financial networks tied to illicit activities.
Through this initiative, the UK and UAE have targeted criminal organisations, weakening the sophisticated financial operations used to fund crime globally.
A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.
The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.
San José:An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Mr. Ding Ding, held the 2025 Article IV consultation with the Costa Rican authorities during February 18-28. At the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Ding issued the following statement:
Costa Rica is one of the fastest-growing economies in the Western Hemisphere, achieving notable economic success in recent years. GDP growth has averaged above 5 percent since 2021, outpacing regional peers and contributing to lower poverty and unemployment. Over the same period, public debt fell by an impressive 8 percentage points of GDP to below 60 percent of GDP. These successes are fruits of good macroeconomic policies, wide-ranging reforms in the context of becoming a member of the OECD, two successfully completed IMF-supported programs, and a strategic focus on exports and economic diversification. Growth is projected to remain strong at about 4 percent for 2025.
Inflation is showing encouraging signs of returning towards the inflation target,following decisive monetary policy easing by the BCCR. Having been near zero since mid-2024, headline inflation has begun to rise and is projected to reach the BCCR’s tolerance band in mid-2025 and the 3 percent target within a year. However, core inflation remains subdued and there are downside risks, primarily stemming from low inflation expectations becoming entrenched below the target. Upside risks could arise from possible commodity price increases and/or supply-side disruptions.
The BCCR’s forward-looking data-dependent approach has proven effective and its inflation targeting regime is working well. At the current monetary policy rate, inflation is expected to be 3 percent by 2026Q1. If the convergence of inflation to the 3 percent target weakens in the coming months, there is room for the BCCR to cut the policy rate further. Credit growth has been strong. If there are signs of excess credit growth especially associated with FX loans, macroprudential measures should be tightened to mitigate potential risks to financial stability.
It is important to further strengthen the BCCR’s autonomy, governance, and operational framework. This would be achieved by approving legislative proposals to improve BCCR governance, transparency, and accountability, and institutionalize the central bank’s de facto autonomy.
The exchange rate should be allowed to adjust more flexibly to market conditions. The BCCR accumulated US$ 920 million in international reserves during 2024, and reserve coverage is now comfortable by multiple metrics. A further accumulation of international reserves is unwarranted and would impose unnecessary costs over time. Moreover, frequent foreign exchange intervention can weaken monetary policy transmission and hinder foreign exchange market development. Concerted efforts including legal reforms are needed to deepen FX markets and strengthen the non-financial public sector’s ability to manage currency risks, reducing its reliance on the BCCR as an intermediary for FX transactions. Alongside the planned reform to restructure existing pension funds into generational funds, regulatory limits on foreign investments by local pension funds need to be updated. Adjustments to these limits should be phased in and supported by FX market development.
There is scope to further capitalize on the significant progress on financial sector oversight. Indicators of financial soundness remain comfortable, notwithstanding the resolution of two small non-bank financial institutions last year. These episodes highlighted the importance of a strong supervisory and resolution framework. The Legislative Assembly should, therefore, pass the proposed amendments to the bank resolution and deposit insurance law that would further strengthen supervisory and resolution powers and enhance the crisis management framework.
Although public debt fell to below 60 percent of GDP in 2024, the task of rebuilding fiscal space is not yet complete. The debt ratio fell in part due to some drawdown of cash balances and transfers of cash balances by decentralized and autonomous entities to the Treasury Single Account (which lowered financing needs). However, the primary surplus fell in 2024 due to temporary factors and the regrettable reductions of the vehicle property tax (marchamo) and corporate tax base. An unwinding of temporary factors is expected to help the primary balance rise to around 1½ percent of GDP this year. A higher primary balance is essential to bring debt down further, reduce interest costs, and create room for additional spending. While spending should be less than the ceiling permitted by the fiscal rule, the higher primary balance should still allow for some increases in priority areas like infrastructure, child and adult care (which will help boost female labor market participation), and investments in skills training for vulnerable groups (which will help reduce dependency on social assistance).
Tax reforms could improve the fairness and efficiency of the system while raising resources for both debt reduction and somewhat higher spending. However, revenue-increasing bills presented over the last five years that would also have increased progressivity and bolstered dynamism have not been viewed favorably by legislators. These have included proposals to reduce VAT and income tax exemptions (such as on the salario escolar and for lottery winnings) and to bring income from self-employment, salaries, and pensions under a single threshold while raising the top marginal rate. These bills warrant renewed consideration as higher revenues would allow faster increases in social and capital spending. At the same time, we are worried that various Legislative Assembly bills are reducing revenues.
Full implementation of the public employment bill and debt management reforms would improve spending quality and reduce interest costs. Legislative proposals aimed at amending the public employment law could significantly undermine progress in containing the public-sector wage bill. Institutions that have not yet fully implemented the public employment law should do so without further delay to ensure its benefits are broadened to beyond the central government. Legal reforms to permit access to international sovereign debt markets and grant the executive branch more flexibility in issuing external debt would also be valuable. There have been welcome improvements in the quality of government finance statistics, which are expected to be used in the setting of fiscal policies.
A comprehensive solution is needed to resolve the dispute between Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social (CCSS) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) over social security claims. The outstanding claim is due to an unfunded expansion of beneficiaries and CCSS’s unilateral decisions to raise the government’s contribution. Addressing this issue requires urgent improvements in the CCSS’s registry systems so as to allow for an accurate tracking of outlays and beneficiaries. Moreover, the CCSS and the MoF should clarify the scope of healthcare services and pension benefits that are currently covered by the budget while identifying additional funding sources as needed to ensure that the healthcare and pension systems are actuarially sound. Strengthening CCSS governance will be essential to ensure that any future changes to the social security system include a thorough assessment of the fiscal and labor market implications of such changes. There is also scope to enhance the accountability of the CCSS, the transparency of their operations, and the simplicity of the system, in line with international best practice. These reforms will be critical to safeguard the long-run sustainability of the social security system as the population ages.
Advancing supply-side reforms can help sustain Costa Rica’s impressive economic performance by addressing key bottlenecks to growth. To tackle skill shortages, particularly in high-tech industries, it is essential to accelerate efforts to reduce skills mismatches, align school curricula with industry needs, promote dual education (including apprenticeship programs) and bilingual education, and improve adult secondary education graduation rates. The recent reduction of the minimum contribution base for part-time workers has helped encourage formal employment but there is scope to lower the high tax wedge on labor, substituting for alternative revenue sources. Enhancing infrastructure quality and maintenance would further strengthen potential growth. In this regard, integrating climate considerations into public investment decisions is already making infrastructure more resilient against natural disasters. Given the substantial additional funding needed to upgrade infrastructure, approving and implementing the new legislation on public private partnerships is critical. Additionally, ongoing reforms to facilitate private-sector electricity provision, including diversification into non-hydroelectric renewables, will make electricity more affordable and less vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall.
The IMF team is grateful to the Costa Rican authorities and other counterparts for the productive discussions and hospitality during the mission.
Costa Rica: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
Projections
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Output and Prices
(Annual percentage change)
Real GDP
4.6
5.1
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.6
GDP deflator
6.3
-0.1
0.0
2.9
3.2
3.2
Consumer prices (period average)
8.3
0.5
-0.4
2.0
3.0
3.0
Savings and Investment
(In percent of GDP)
Gross domestic saving
14.4
13.8
14.3
14.1
14.1
14.3
Gross domestic investment
17.7
15.3
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.8
External Sector
Current account balance
-3.3
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
Trade balance
-6.7
-3.7
-2.7
-3.0
-2.8
-3.1
Financial account balance
-2.5
-0.7
-0.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
Foreign direct investment, net
-4.4
-4.3
-4.0
-5.3
-5.5
-5.4
Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollars)
8,724
13,261
14,181
15,056
16,077
16,827
External debt
50.7
43.3
38.6
35.5
33.3
30.9
Public Finances
Central government primary balance
2.1
1.6
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.7
Central government overall balance
-2.8
-3.2
-3.8
-3.0
-2.7
-2.3
Central government debt
63.0
61.1
59.8
59.4
58.4
57.1
Money and Credit
Credit to the private sector (percent change)
3.3
1.9
6.4
7.5
7.0
7.0
Monetary base 1/
8.0
7.9
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
Broad money
47.5
47.4
49.4
50.1
50.3
50.9
Memorandum Items
Nominal GDP (billions of colones) 2/
44,810
47,059
49,116
52,531
56,237
60,132
Output gap (as percent of potential GDP)
-0.3
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
GDP per capita (US$)
13,240
16,390
17,901
19,013
20,009
21,045
Unemployment rate
11.7
7.3
6.9
8.0
8.5
9.0
Sources: Central Bank of Costa Rica, and Fund staff estimates.
1/ Includes currency issued and required reserves.
2/ National account data reflect the revision of the benchmark year to 2017 for the chained volume measures, published in January 2021.
Approximately 60 Unifi Aviation ground handling workers based in San Jose, Calif., last week voted nearly 70 percent to join the IAM Union. Unifi Aviation waged a scorched-Earth union-busting campaign, led by the anti-worker law firm Jones Day. The workers cited low and stagnant wage rates, poor benefits and working conditions as reasons to form a union and gain a seat at the table.
Although the IAM Union filed the petition to hold a representation election in July 2024, it took six months for an election to be held due to management’s stall tactics.
“I am very proud to welcome these determined and courageous workers into aviation’s largest union, the IAM,” said IAM Air Transport Territory General Vice President Richie Johnsen. “And a special thanks to District 141 Director of Membership Services Frank Giannola, Local 1781 veteran organizer Danny Paulazzo, and the IAM Legal Department for leading the campaign to a successful conclusion.”
“District 141 salutes these Unifi workers who never backed down and took on these high-priced union-busters and sent them packing,” said IAM District 141 President Mike Klemm. “We will now continue this campaign and negotiate the dignified first contract that these workers deserve.”
Unifi Aviation employs approximately 60 workers at San Jose Mineta International Airport who perform ground handling services for Delta Air Lines. The IAM Union is also currently working to organize approximately 20,000 Delta Air Lines ramp, cargo and tower workers nationwide.
“Proud is an understatement,” said IAM District 141 Director of Membership Services Frank Giannola. “Not only do these workers endure the disrespect of low wages and poor treatment on a daily basis, but they had to withstand the lies and threats for six months because of stalling and union-busting tactics.”
Unifi Aviation operates in approximately 180 airports across the United States performing ground handling and other services for airlines.