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Category: Politics

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Scottish Secretary pledges to take action on poverty

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Ian Murray welcomes recommendations by Joseph Rowntree Foundation and vows to work with Scottish Government to tackle associated issues and break down barriers

    Scottish Secretary Ian Murray spoke at the launch of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s (JRF) annual report into poverty in Scotland this week [7 October].

    The report, summarised here, found that one million people in Scotland are living in poverty and that one in four of them are children. Recommendations were made to overhaul the social security system to tackle the problem and, in particular, for the UK and Scottish Governments to work together to make the process smoother in terms of reserved and devolved policy areas.

    An excerpt follows from the remarks made by the Scottish Secretary at the event: 

    I want to outline some of the steps that the new UK Government is taking to reduce poverty in Scotland and across the whole of the UK.

    We are committed to working together with the Scottish Government, and to reset the relationship between our two governments. Because, as this latest report highlights, it is vital that we can deliver on behalf of the people of Scotland.

    I’ve spent a lot of time with organisations such as Poverty Alliance to understand fully the complexities of what’s happening. 

    Having one million people in poverty – a quarter of those children – is really sobering. But I think the most sobering thing is that none of us are surprised, and that really should be the thing that we need to tackle in terms of policy.

    We are only 95 days into this new government and we’ve already done a lot of engagement to make sure we can develop these policies, whether it be in social security or regarding the underlying parts of poverty. 

    With the Budget coming up on 30 October, the Chancellor has been clear on two things. One is the economic inheritance that we’ve got to try and deal with and that those with the broadest shoulders will carry the majority of what needs to be done to grow the economy for all parts of our country.

    Reducing poverty across all sections of society, particularly child poverty, is in our DNA. We did it before. Unfortunately, we’re going to have to do it again. 

    We will be publishing our Employment Rights Bill this week to fundamentally transform work and pay. It will ban exploitative zero-hour contracts, outlaw fire and rehire and will make sure that the National Minimum Wage becomes a genuine living wage.

    It’s still sobering that two-thirds of children in poverty are in households where one or both adults are working full time, and that means that there’s a big problem with pay. We hope that our New Deal for Working People will start to resolve some of those issues.

    I think it’s also important to highlight our Universal Credit review, which will look at everything from the two-child cap to housing allowances.

    We’ve also launched our Child Poverty Task Force, chaired jointly by the Secretaries of State for Education and the Department of Work and Pensions. It looks at all the other big issues that are around in terms of poverty.

    Yes, it’s about the social security system, Universal Credit, but it’s also about housing, educational attainment, health inequalities, pay in the workplace, progression and skills. It’s about those underlying causes of poverty that are inherent in our society that we need to find a way to resolve once and for all.

    Having grown up on a council estate, I know that having that security of tenure of a house was the bedrock in which the family was built, and without that it’s difficult to see how you can get yourself out of poverty.

    Housing is devolved, but both governments are working very closely together to make sure that we can resolve the housing emergency that’s been declared across a lot of our local authorities. 

    We’ve made a good start over the last 95 days. There will be bumps in the road, because these are fundamental challenges, but the whole culture of the new government is to try and resolve these issues. 

    We want to make sure the system can work better, and joint working is really important in this area. There’s no reason why Social Security Scotland and the DWP can’t work jointly in terms of the delivery of social security, to make sure that we get the best out of both systems for the benefit of everyone who needs to access that system. 

    Regarding the low update of benefits by ethnic minorities, I think that’s a huge challenge for us. Not just finding those individuals and families, but actually being able to engage with them and get them what they deserve to be claiming. That’s a huge battle for us all to try to work together and resolve.

    We’ve got four big priorities as a new government and as a Scotland Office. Growth is the number one priority, but that also feeds into our green agenda, which is our second priority. Our third one is Brand Scotland to try and increase our exports, to improve our businesses and create more jobs. And the fourth one, which attached the first three, is the eradication of poverty.

    That’s something that myself and Ministerial colleague Kirsty McNeill are fundamentally committed to doing. We can only do that by all of us – devolved governments, the UK Government and organisations like JRF working together. We must find ways we can not only make the system better, but make sure that those who require access to the system, get access to that system and get the funds and support they deserve.

    There’s a huge amount of work to be done and this report gives us that very sobering starting point.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage: sales pitches are often from biased sources, the choices can be overwhelming and impartial help is not equally available to all

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Grace McCormack, Postdoctoral researcher of Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California

    It can take a lot of effort to understand the many different Medicare choices. Halfpoint Images/Moment via Getty Images

    The 67 million Americans eligible for Medicare make an important decision every October: Should they make changes in their Medicare health insurance plans for the next calendar year?

    The decision is complicated. Medicare has an enormous variety of coverage options, with large and varying implications for people’s health and finances, both as beneficiaries and taxpayers. And the decision is consequential – some choices lock beneficiaries out of traditional Medicare.

    Beneficiaries choose an insurance plan when they turn 65 or become eligible based on qualifying chronic conditions or disabilities. After the initial sign-up, most beneficiaries can make changes only during the open enrollment period each fall.

    The 2024 open enrollment period, which runs from Oct. 14 to Dec. 7, marks an opportunity to reassess options. Given the complicated nature of Medicare and the scarcity of unbiased advisers, however, finding reliable information and understanding the options available can be challenging.

    We are health care policy experts who study Medicare, and even we find it complicated. One of us recently helped a relative enroll in Medicare for the first time. She’s healthy, has access to health insurance through her employer and doesn’t regularly take prescription drugs. Even in this straightforward scenario, the number of choices were overwhelming.

    The stakes of these choices are even higher for people managing multiple chronic conditions. There is help available for beneficiaries, but we have found that there is considerable room for improvement – especially in making help available for everyone who needs it.

    The choice is complex, especially when you are signing up for the first time and if you are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. Insurers often engage in aggressive and sometimes deceptive advertising and outreach through brokers and agents. Choose unbiased resources to guide you through the process, like http://www.shiphelp.org. Make sure to start before your 65th birthday for initial sign-up, look out for yearly plan changes, and start well before the Dec. 7 deadline for any plan changes.

    2 paths with many decisions

    Within Medicare, beneficiaries have a choice between two very different programs. They can enroll in either traditional Medicare, which is administered by the government, or one of the Medicare Advantage plans offered by private insurance companies.

    Within each program are dozens of further choices.

    Traditional Medicare is a nationally uniform cost-sharing plan for medical services that allows people to choose their providers for most types of medical care, usually without prior authorization. Deductibles for 2024 are US$1,632 for hospital costs and $240 for outpatient and medical costs. Patients also have to chip in starting on Day 61 for a hospital stay and Day 21 for a skilled nursing facility stay. This percentage is known as coinsurance. After the yearly deductible, Medicare pays 80% of outpatient and medical costs, leaving the person with a 20% copayment. Traditional Medicare’s basic plan, known as Part A and Part B, also has no out-of-pocket maximum.

    Traditional Medicare starts with Medicare parts A and B.
    Bill Oxford/iStock via Getty Images

    People enrolled in traditional Medicare can also purchase supplemental coverage from a private insurance company, known as Part D, for drugs. And they can purchase supplemental coverage, known as Medigap, to lower or eliminate their deductibles, coinsurance and copayments, cap costs for Parts A and B, and add an emergency foreign travel benefit.

    Part D plans cover prescription drug costs for about $0 to $100 a month. People with lower incomes may get extra financial help by signing up for the Medicare program Part D Extra Help or state-sponsored pharmaceutical assistance programs.

    There are 10 standardized Medigap plans, also known as Medicare supplement plans. Depending on the plan, and the person’s gender, location and smoking status, Medigap typically costs from about $30 to $400 a month when a beneficiary first enrolls in Medicare.

    The Medicare Advantage program allows private insurers to bundle everything together and offers many enrollment options. Compared with traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage plans typically offer lower out-of-pocket costs. They often bundle supplemental coverage for hearing, vision and dental, which is not part of traditional Medicare.

    But Medicare Advantage plans also limit provider networks, meaning that people who are enrolled in them can see only certain providers without paying extra. In comparison to traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage enrollees on average go to lower-quality hospitals, nursing facilities, and home health agencies but see higher-quality primary care doctors.

    Medicare Advantage plans also often require prior authorization – often for important services such as stays at skilled nursing facilities, home health services and dialysis.

    Choice overload

    Understanding the tradeoffs between premiums, health care access and out-of-pocket health care costs can be overwhelming.

    Turning 65 begins the process of taking one of two major paths, which each have a thicket of health care choices.
    Rika Kanaoka/USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics

    Though options vary by county, the typical Medicare beneficiary can choose between as many as 10 Medigap plans and 21 standalone Part D plans, or an average of 43 Medicare Advantage plans. People who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid, or have certain chronic conditions, or are in a long-term care facility have additional types of Medicare Advantage plans known as Special Needs Plans to choose among.

    Medicare Advantage plans can vary in terms of networks, benefits and use of prior authorization.

    Different Medicare Advantage plans have varying and large impacts on enrollee health, including dramatic differences in mortality rates. Researchers found a 16% difference per year between the best and worst Medicare Advantage plans, meaning that for every 100 people in the worst plans who die within a year, they would expect only 84 people to die within that year if all had been enrolled in the best plans instead. They also found plans that cost more had lower mortality rates, but plans that had higher federal quality ratings – known as “star ratings” – did not necessarily have lower mortality rates.

    The quality of different Medicare Advantage plans, however, can be difficult for potential enrollees to assess. The federal plan finder website lists available plans and publishes a quality rating of one to five stars for each plan. But in practice, these star ratings don’t necessarily correspond to better enrollee experiences or meaningful differences in quality.

    Online provider networks can also contain errors or include providers who are no longer seeing new patients, making it hard for people to choose plans that give them access to the providers they prefer.

    While many Medicare Advantage plans boast about their supplemental benefits , such as vision and dental coverage, it’s often difficult to understand how generous this supplemental coverage is. For instance, while most Medicare Advantage plans offer supplemental dental benefits, cost-sharing and coverage can vary. Some plans don’t cover services such as extractions and endodontics, which includes root canals. Most plans that cover these more extensive dental services require some combination of coinsurance, copayments and annual limits.

    Even when information is fully available, mistakes are likely.

    Part D beneficiaries often fail to accurately evaluate premiums and expected out-of-pocket costs when making their enrollment decisions. Past work suggests that many beneficiaries have difficulty processing the proliferation of options. A person’s relationship with health care providers, financial situation and preferences are key considerations. The consequences of enrolling in one plan or another can be difficult to determine.

    The trap: Locked out

    At 65, when most beneficiaries first enroll in Medicare, federal regulations guarantee that anyone can get Medigap coverage. During this initial sign-up, beneficiaries can’t be charged a higher premium based on their health.

    Older Americans who enroll in a Medicare Advantage plan but then want to switch back to traditional Medicare after more than a year has passed lose that guarantee. This can effectively lock them out of enrolling in supplemental Medigap insurance, making the initial decision a one-way street.

    For the initial sign-up, Medigap plans are “guaranteed issue,” meaning the plan must cover preexisting health conditions without a waiting period and must allow anyone to enroll, regardless of health. They also must be “community rated,” meaning that the cost of a plan can’t rise because of age or illness, although it can go up due to other factors such as inflation.

    People who enroll in traditional Medicare and a supplemental Medigap plan at 65 can expect to continue paying community-rated premiums as long as they remain enrolled, regardless of what happens to their health.

    In most states, however, people who switch from Medicare Advantage to traditional Medicare don’t have as many protections. Most state regulations permit plans to deny coverage, impose waiting periods or charge higher Medigap premiums based on their expected health costs. Only Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts and New York guarantee that people can get Medigap plans after the initial sign-up period.

    Deceptive advertising

    Information about Medicare coverage and assistance choosing a plan is available but varies in quality and completeness. Older Americans are bombarded with ads for Medicare Advantage plans that they may not be eligible for and that include misleading statements about benefits.

    A November 2022 report from the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance found deceptive and aggressive sales and marketing tactics, including mailed brochures that implied government endorsement, telemarketers who called up to 20 times a day, and salespeople who approached older adults in the grocery store to ask about their insurance coverage.

    The Department of Health and Human Services tightened rules for 2024, requiring third-party marketers to include federal resources about Medicare, including the website and toll-free phone number, and limiting the number of contacts from marketers.

    Although the government has the authority to review marketing materials, enforcement is partially dependent on whether complaints are filed. Complaints can be filed with the federal government’s Senior Medicare Patrol, a federally funded program that prevents and addresses unethical Medicare activities.

    Meanwhile, the number of people enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans has grown rapidly, doubling since 2010 and accounting for more than half of all Medicare beneficiaries by 2023.

    Nearly one-third of Medicare beneficiaries seek information from an insurance broker. Brokers sell health insurance plans from multiple companies. However, because they receive payment from plans in exchange for sales, and because they are unlikely to sell every option, a plan recommended by a broker may not meet a person’s needs.

    Help is out there − but falls short

    An alternative source of information is the federal government. It offers three sources of information to assist people with choosing one of these plans: 1-800-Medicare, medicare.gov and the State Health Insurance Assistance Program, also known as SHIP.

    The SHIP program combats misleading Medicare advertising and deceptive brokers by connecting eligible Americans with counselors by phone or in person to help them choose plans. Many people say they prefer meeting in person with a counselor over phone or internet support. SHIP staff say they often help people understand what’s in Medicare Advantage ads and disenroll from plans they were directed to by brokers.

    Telephone SHIP services are available nationally, but one of us and our colleagues have found that in-person SHIP services are not available in some areas. We tabulated areas by ZIP code in 27 states and found that although more than half of the locations had a SHIP site within the county, areas without a SHIP site included a larger proportion of people with low incomes.

    Virtual services are an option that’s particularly useful in rural areas and for people with limited mobility or little access to transportation, but they require online access. Virtual and in-person services, where both a beneficiary and a counselor can look at the same computer screen, are especially useful for looking through complex coverage options.

    We also interviewed SHIP counselors and coordinators from across the U.S.

    As one SHIP coordinator noted, many people are not aware of all their coverage options. For instance, one beneficiary told a coordinator, “I’ve been on Medicaid and I’m aging out of Medicaid. And I don’t have a lot of money. And now I have to pay for my insurance?” As it turned out, the beneficiary was eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare because of their income, and so had to pay less than they thought.

    The interviews made clear that many people are not aware that Medicare Advantage ads and insurance brokers may be biased. One counselor said, “There’s a lot of backing (beneficiaries) off the ledge, if you will, thanks to those TV commercials.”

    Many SHIP staff counselors said they would benefit from additional training on coverage options, including for people who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. The SHIP program relies heavily on volunteers, and there is often greater demand for services than the available volunteers can offer. Additional counselors would help meet needs for complex coverage decisions.

    The key to making a good Medicare coverage decision is to use the help available and weigh your costs, access to health providers, current health and medication needs, and also consider how your health and medication needs might change as time goes on.

    This article is part of an occasional series examining the U.S. Medicare system.

    Grace McCormack receives funding from the Commonwealth Fund and Arnold Ventures.

    Melissa Garrido receives funding from Commonwealth Fund, the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health for Medicare-related research, including research discussed in this piece.

    – ref. Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage: sales pitches are often from biased sources, the choices can be overwhelming and impartial help is not equally available to all – https://theconversation.com/medicare-vs-medicare-advantage-sales-pitches-are-often-from-biased-sources-the-choices-can-be-overwhelming-and-impartial-help-is-not-equally-available-to-all-236635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Trump accuses people of wrongdoing he himself committed − an explanation of projection

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By April Johnson, Associate Professor of Political Science, Kennesaw State University

    Donald Trump accuses others of acts he has done at an Oct. 3, 2024, rally in Michigan. AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

    Donald Trump has a particular formula he uses to convey messages to his supporters and opponents alike: He highlights others’ wrongdoings even though he has committed similar acts himself.

    On Oct. 3, 2024, Trump accused the Biden administration of spending Federal Emergency Management Agency funds – money meant for disaster relief – on services for immigrants. Biden did no such thing, but Trump did during his time in the White House, including to pay for additional detention space.

    This is not the first time he has accused someone of something he had done or would do in the future. In 2016, Trump criticized opponent Hillary Clinton’s use of an unsecured personal email server while secretary of state as “extreme carelessness with classified material.” But once he was elected, Trump continued to use his unsecured personal cellphone while in office. And he has been criminally charged with illegally keeping classified government documents after he left office and storing them in his bedroom, bathroom and other places at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

    After complaining about how Hillary Clinton handled classified documents, Donald Trump stored national secrets in a bathroom.
    Justice Department via AP

    More recently, the Secret Service arrested a man with a rifle who was allegedly planning to shoot Trump during a round of golf. In the wake of this event, Trump accused Democrats of using “inflammatory language” that stokes the fires of political violence. Meanwhile, Trump himself has a long history of making inflammatory remarks that could potentially incite violence.

    As a scholar of both politics and psychology, I’m familiar with the psychological strategies candidates use to persuade the public to support them and to cast their rivals in a negative light. This strategy Trump has used repeatedly is called “projection.” It’s a tactic people use to lessen their own faults by calling out these faults in others.

    Projection abounds

    There are plenty of examples. During his Sept. 10, 2024, debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump claimed that Democrats were responsible for the July 13 assassination attempt against him. “I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me,” he declared.

    Earlier in the debate he had falsely accused immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, of eating other people’s pets – a statement that sparked bomb threats and prompted the city’s mayor to declare a state of emergency.

    Similarly, congressional investigators and federal prosecutors have found that Trump’s remarks called thousands of people to Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021, encouraging them to violently storm the Capitol in order to stop the counting of electoral votes.

    Trump isn’t the only politician who uses projection. His running mate, JD Vance, claimed “the rejection of the American family is perhaps the most pernicious and the most evil thing the left has done in this country.” Critics quickly pointed out that his own family has a history of dysfunction and drug addiction.

    Projection happens on both sides of the political aisle. In reference to Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on all imported goods, the Harris campaign launched social media efforts to condemn the so-called “Trump tequila tax.” While Harris frames this proposal as a sales tax that would devastate middle-class families, she deflects from the fact that inflation has made middle-class life more expensive since she and President Joe Biden took office.

    How it works

    Projection is one example of unconscious psychological processes called defense mechanisms. Some people find it hard to accept criticism or believe information that they wish were not true. So they seek – and then provide – another explanation for the difference between what’s happening in the world and what’s happening in their minds.

    In general, this is called “motivated reasoning,” which is an umbrella phrase used to describe the array of mental gymnastics people use to reconcile their views with reality.

    Some examples include seeking out information that confirms their beliefs, dismissing factual claims or creating alternate explanations. For example, a smoker might downplay or simply avoid information related to the link between smoking and lung cancer, or perhaps tell themselves that they don’t smoke as much as they actually do.

    Motivated reasoning is not unique to politics. It can be a challenging concept to consider because people tend to think they are fully in control of their decision-making abilities and that they are capable of objectively processing political information. The evidence is clear, however, that there are unconscious thought processes at work, too.

    Influencing the audience

    Audiences are also susceptible to unconscious psychological dynamics. Research has found that over time, people’s minds subconsciously attach emotions to concepts, names or phrases. So someone might have a particular emotional reaction to the words “gun control,” “Ron DeSantis” or “tax relief.”

    And people’s minds also unconsciously create defenses for those seemingly automatic emotions. When a person’s emotions and defenses are questioned, a phenomenon called the “backfire effect” can occur, in which the process of controlling, correcting or counteracting mistaken beliefs ends up reinforcing the person’s beliefs rather than changing them.

    For instance, some people may find it hard to believe that the candidate they prefer – whom they believe to be the best person for the job – truly lost an election. So they seek another explanation and accept explanations that justify their beliefs. Perhaps they choose to believe, even in the absence of evidence, that the race was rigged or that many fraudulent votes were cast. And when evidence to the contrary is offered, they insist their views are correct.

    Vice President Kamala Harris has campaigned with Liz Cheney, right, a prominent Republican who formerly served in Congress.
    AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

    A way out

    Fortunately, research shows specific ways to reduce people’s reliance on these automatic psychological processes, including reiterating and providing details of objective facts and – importantly – attempting to correct untruths via a trusted source from the same political party.

    For instance, challenges to Democrats’ belief that the Trump-affiliated conservative agenda called Project 2025 is “dangerous” would be more effective coming from a Democrat than from a Republican.

    Similarly, a counter to Trump’s claim that the international community is headed toward World War III with Democrats in the White House would be stronger coming from one of Trump’s fellow Republicans. And certainly, statements that Trump “can never be trusted with power again” carries more weight when it comes from the lips of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney than from any member of the Democratic Party.

    Critiques from within a candidate’s own party are not out of the question. But they are certainly improbable given the hotly charged climate that is election season 2024.

    April Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Trump accuses people of wrongdoing he himself committed − an explanation of projection – https://theconversation.com/why-trump-accuses-people-of-wrongdoing-he-himself-committed-an-explanation-of-projection-237912

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: LGBTQ rights: Where do Harris and Trump stand?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Marie-Amelie George, Associate Professor of Law, Wake Forest University

    The Republican Party and Democratic Party offer voters starkly different visions of LGBTQ rights in America. Douglas Rissing via Getty Images

    Polls show that LGBTQ rights will likely factor into most Americans’ pick for president this November as they choose between former Republican President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat.

    A March 2024 survey by independent pollster PRRI found that 68% of voters will take LGBTQ rights into consideration at the polls. Fully 30% stated that they would vote only for a candidate who shares their views on the issue.

    It is no coincidence, then, that LGBTQ rights issues feature prominently in the party platforms.

    The Republican Party’s electoral promises include cutting existing federal funding for gender-affirming care and restricting transgender students’ participation in sports. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party platform proposes to outlaw discrimination against LGBTQ people, including passing the Equality Act, which would prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity in housing, health care and public accommodations.

    As a legal scholar who has written extensively on the history of LGBTQ rights, I have seen that the clearest indication of how a politician will act once in office is not what they promise on the campaign trail. Instead, it’s what they have done in the past.

    Let’s examine their records.

    Trump restricted some LGBTQ rights

    Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, are both relatively new to politics, so their records on LGBTQ rights issues are slim.

    Trump enacted two policies restricting LGBTQ rights early in his one term in office. The first was his 2017 executive order Promoting Free Speech and Religious Liberty, which reinforced that federal law must respect conscience-based objections to comply with the First Amendment. This order indirectly imperiled LGBTQ rights because many LGBTQ rights battles are fought over whether conservative Christian businesses run afoul of anti-discrimination laws when they refuse to serve same-sex couples.

    A few months later, Trump banned transgender individuals from serving in the U.S. armed forces. He ultimately revoked the directive, implementing instead a new policy that allowed existing transgender soldiers to remain in the military but barred new transgender recruits from enlisting.

    Vance has opposed trans rights

    Vance, a one-term senator, has accrued a record of trying to roll back the rights of transgender Americans during his short time in public office.

    Between 2023 and 2024, Vance introduced or sponsored five bills opposing trans rights. One seeks to restrict gender-affirming care for minors by imposing criminal sanctions on doctors who perform such surgeries; another aims to do the same by exposing physicians to civil liability for either prescribing gender affirming hormones or performing surgeries.

    JD Vance has made rolling back the rights of transgender Americans a centerpiece of his short congressional career.
    Christian Monterrosa/AFP via Getty Images

    Another Vance bill would expand health care workers’ ability to make conscience-based objections to transgender rights. One more would amend Title IX, which prohibits discrimination based on sex in education, to limit transgender student participation in athletics.

    Vance has also tried to pass legislation that would stop the Department of State from issuing passports with an unspecified “X” gender designation, a policy that launched in 2021. Gender-neutral passports allow transgender, intersex and nonbinary individuals to carry identity documents that reflect their gender identity and avoid what can be significant problems getting through airport security with misgendered IDs.

    Congress has not voted on any of these proposals.

    A ‘legislative priority’ for Harris

    Harris and her vice presidential pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have both made LGBTQ rights a legislative priority throughout their long political careers.

    Harris initially took public office in 2003 as San Francisco’s district attorney. In that role, she established a hate crimes unit that prosecuted violence against LGBTQ youth in schools. She also trained prosecutors nationwide to counter the “gay panic” and “trans panic” defenses in court, which is when lawyers attempt to justify violence as a fear-based reaction to the victim’s sexual orientation or gender identity.

    Harris was elected California’s attorney general in 2011 and declined to defend the state’s ban on same-sex marriage when opponents challenged the law’s constitutionality before the U.S. Supreme Court. She also joined amicus briefs supporting transgender bathroom access after North Carolina barred transgender people from using bathrooms that did not match the gender on their ID.

    Harris, however, did not unequivocally champion LGBTQ rights. In 2015, she opposed two prisoners’ request for urgent gender-confirmation surgery. She has since called for a “better understanding” of transgender health needs.

    As a U.S. senator from 2017 to 2021, Harris sponsored bills proposing to better address distinct LGBTQ issues in health care and the criminal justice system. She also sponsored five Senate bills to prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity in employment, housing and public accommodations. Other bills she sponsored focused on LGBTQ youth, aiming to prohibit discrimination in child welfare programs and barring federal funds from supporting so-called conversion therapy of LGBTQ teens.

    The Senate did not vote on any of these bills.

    As vice president, Harris has been part of what advocates describe as the most pro-LGBTQ administration in U.S. history.

    Since 2021, President Joe Biden has issued multiple executive orders to combat discrimination against the LGBTQ community, including by eliminating the Trump-era restrictions on transgender military service. Biden also signed into law the Respect for Marriage Act, which changed the federal definition of marriage from “a man and a woman” to “two individuals.” The statute ensures that the federal government would continue to recognize same-sex unions if the Supreme Court ever reversed its decision to legalize marriage equality.

    Walz: Ally in the statehouse

    Harris’ vice-presidential pick has a similarly extensive record backing LGBTQ rights.

    As a U.S. representative from 2007 to 2019, Walz supported efforts to grant federal benefits to same-sex couples before marriage equality became federal law. He also co-sponsored many of the House versions of the same bills as Harris.

    As Minnesota’s governor, Walz has issued several executive orders promoting LGBTQ inclusion and equity and banned conversion therapy for minors. He also declared Minnesota as a “trans refuge state” that will not enforce laws interfering with children’s access to gender-affirming care.

    Walz signs a law in 2023 that declares Minnesota to be a refuge for people traveling for gender-affirming medical care.
    Glen Stubbe/Star Tribune via Getty Images)

    Starkly different records

    If elected, Trump has promised to cut federal funds for public schools that “push … gender ideology” and “keep men out of women’s sports.” Harris pledges to “defend the freedom to love who you love openly and with pride.”

    As citizens head to the polls in November, they can be confident that, on this topic at least, the candidates mean what they say.

    Marie-Amelie George does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. LGBTQ rights: Where do Harris and Trump stand? – https://theconversation.com/lgbtq-rights-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand-237298

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Caitlin Clark, Christine Brennan and how racial stereotypes persist in the media’s WNBA coverage

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Molly Yanity, Professor and Director of Sports media and Communication, University of Rhode Island

    Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark, right, scrambles for a loose ball against Connecticut Sun guard DiJonai Carrington during a game on Aug. 28, 2024. Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    The “Caitlin Clark effect,” or the impact on women’s basketball from a ponytailed rookie phenomenon from America’s heartland, is real: The 2024 WNBA season shattered viewership, attendance and merchandise sales records.

    Clark, however, didn’t get a chance to compete for a league title.

    The Connecticut Sun eliminated Clark’s team, the Indiana Fever, in the first round of the playoffs with a two-game sweep, ending her record rookie-of-the-year campaign.

    And it may be just the latest chapter in a complicated saga steeped in race.

    During the first game of the series, the fingers of Sun guard DiJonai Carrington hit Clark in the eye as Carrington followed through on a block attempt of a Clark shot.

    During the next day’s media availability, USA Today columnist Christine Brennan recorded and posted an exchange between herself and Carrington.

    In the brief clip, the veteran sports writer asks Carrington, who is Black, if she purposely hit Clark in the eye during the previous night’s game. Though Carrington insisted she didn’t intentionally hit Clark, Brennan persisted, asking the guard if she and a teammate had laughed about the incident. The questions sparked social media outrage, statements from the players union and the league, media personalities weighing in and more.

    Hit the pause button here.

    As a longtime sports writer who has covered the WNBA – and as a journalism scholar who studies women’s sports and fandom – I’ll concede that Brennan’s line of questioning seems, on its face, like business as usual in sports journalism.

    After all, haven’t most baseball fans seen a scribe ask a pitcher if he intentionally beaned a batter?

    But Brennan’s questions were not asked in a vacuum. The emergence of a young, white superstar from the heartland has caused many new WNBA fans to pick sides that fall along racial lines. Brennan’s critics claim she was pushing a line of questioning that has dogged Black athletes for decades: that they are aggressive and undisciplined.

    Because of that, her defense of her questions – and her unwillingness to acknowledge the complexities – has left this professor disappointed in one of her journalistic heroes.

    Brennan and much of the mainstream sports media, particularly those who cover professional women’s basketball, still seem to have a racial blind spot.

    The emergence of a Black, queer league

    When the WNBA launched in 1997 in the wake of the success of the 1996 Olympic gold-medal-winning U.S. women’s basketball team, it did so under the watch of the NBA.

    The NBA set out to market its new product, in part, to a white, heterosexual fan base.

    The plan didn’t take hold.

    While the league experienced fits and starts in attendance and TV ratings over its lifetime, the demographic makeup of its players is undeniable: The WNBA is, by and large, a Black, queer league.

    In 2020, the Women’s National Basketball Players Association reported that 83% of its members were people of color, with 67% self-reporting as “Black/African-American.” While gender and sexual identity hasn’t been officially reported, a “substantial proportion,” the WNBPA reported, identify as LBGTQ+.

    In 2020, the league’s diversity was celebrated as players competed in a “bubble” in Bradenton, Florida, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They protested racial injustice, helped unseat a U.S. senator who also owned Atlanta’s WNBA franchise, and urged voters to oust former President Donald Trump from the White House.

    Racial tensions bubble to the surface

    In the middle of it all, the WNBA has more eyeballs on it than ever before. And, without mincing words, the fan base has “gotten whiter” since Clark’s debut this past summer, as The Wall Street Journal pointed out in July. Those white viewers of college women’s basketball have emphatically turned their attention to the pro game, in large part due to Clark’s popularity at the University of Iowa.

    Money is also pouring into the league through a lucrative media rights deal and new sponsorship partners.

    While the rising tide following Clark’s transition to the WNBA is certainly lifting all boats, it is also bringing detritus to the surface in the form of racist jeers from the stands and on social media.

    After the Sun dispatched the Fever, All-WNBA forward Alyssa Thomas, who seldom speaks beyond soundbites, said in a postgame news conference: “I think in my 11-year career I’ve never experienced the racial comments from the Indiana Fever fan base. … I’ve never been called the things that I’ve been called on social media, and there’s no place for it.”

    Echoes of Bird and Magic

    In “Manufacturing Consent,” a seminal work about the U.S. news business, Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky argued that media in capitalist environments do not exist to impartially report the news, but to reinforce dominant narratives of the time, even if they are false. Most journalists, they theorized, work to support the status quo.

    In sports, you sometimes see that come to light through what media scholars call “the stereotypical narrative” – a style of reporting and writing that relies on old tropes.

    Scholars who study sports media have found that reporters routinely fall back on racial stereotypes. For example, coverage of Black quarterbacks in the NFL as less intelligent and more innately gifted would go on to hinder the progress of Black quarterbacks.

    Magic Johnson defends a shot by Larry Bird during the 1985 NBA Finals.
    Bob Riha, Jr./Getty Images

    In Brennan’s coverage of the Carrington-Clark incident, there appear to be echoes of the way the media covered Los Angeles Lakers point guard Magic Johnson and Boston Celtics forward Larry Bird in the 1980s.

    The battles between two of the sport’s greatest players – one Black, the other white – was a windfall for the NBA, lifting the league into financial sustainability.

    But to many reporters who leaned on the dominant narrative of the time, the two stars also served as stand-ins for the racial tensions of the post-civil rights era. During the 1980s, Bird and Magic didn’t simply hoop; they were the “embodiments of their races and living symbols of how blacks and whites lived in America,” as scholars Patrick Ferrucci and Earnest Perry wrote.

    The media gatekeepers of the Magic-Bird era often relied on racial stereotypes that ultimately distorted both athletes.

    For example, early in their careers, Bird and Johnson received different journalistic treatment. In Ferrucci and Perry’s article, they explain how coverage of Bird “fit the dominant narrative of the time perfectly … exhibiting a hardworking and intelligent game that succeeded despite a lack of athletic prowess.” When the “flashy” Lakers and Johnson won, they wrote, it was because of “superior skill.”

    When they lost to Bird’s Celtics, they were “outworked.”

    Framing matters

    Let’s go back to Brennan.

    Few have done more for young women in the sports media industry than Brennan. In time, energy and money, she has mentored and supported young women trying to break into the field. She has used her platform to expand the coverage of women’s sports.

    Brennan defended herself in a lengthy interview on the podcast “Good Game with Sarah Spain”:

    “I think [critics are] missing the fact of what I’m trying to do, what I am doing, what I understand clearly as a journalist, asking questions and putting things out there so that athletes can then have an opportunity to answer issues that are being discussed or out there.”

    I don’t think Brennan asking Carrington about the foul was problematic. Persisting with the narrative was.

    Leaning into racial stereotypes is not simply about the language used anymore. Brennan’s video of her persistent line of questioning pitted Carrington against Clark. It could be argued that it used the stereotype of the overly physical, aggressive Black athlete, as well.

    At best, Brennan has a blind spot to the strain racism is putting on Black athletes today – particularly in the WNBA. At worst, she is digging in on that tired trope.

    A blind spot can be addressed and seen. An unacknowledged racist narrative, however, will persist.

    Molly Yanity does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Caitlin Clark, Christine Brennan and how racial stereotypes persist in the media’s WNBA coverage – https://theconversation.com/caitlin-clark-christine-brennan-and-how-racial-stereotypes-persist-in-the-medias-wnba-coverage-240272

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The vote in Pennsylvania could decide the US election – it’s a battle for the suburbs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCL

    Pennsylvania has many slogans and nicknames. “The Keystone State.” “State of Independence.” “Home of beer, chocolate, and liberty and Taylor Swift.” And now: “centre of the political universe”.

    According to recent analysis by political statistician Nate Silver, how Pennsylvania swings on November 5 is likely to determine the next leader of the free world. If Kamala Harris wins the state, her odds of taking the White House reach 91%. If Trump wins, his odds skyrocket to 96%.

    That’s how much Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes matter (270 are needed to win the Electoral College), and how much the state is a bellwether nationally for how each candidate is performing with “must-win” voters.

    Nearly every statewide poll conducted in Pennsylvania (PA) in the last month shows a statistical tie in the presidential contest. FiveThirtyEight forecasts in its simulations that Harris would win the state 54 times out of 100 elections and Trump 46 times, meaning the state is a virtual toss-up.

    In 2016, Trump pulled off a narrow upset in PA, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton 48.2 to 47.5%. The victory cracked the crucial “Blue Wall,” alongside Michigan and Wisconsin, which paved Trump’s path to the White House. In 2020, President Joe Biden, thanks partly to touting his family’s roots in the working-class city of Scranton, beat Trump in Pennsylvania 50 to 48.8%. In the last 10 elections, Pennsylvania has selected the eventual occupant of the Oval Office eight times.

    The world is watching as the US election campaign unfolds. Sign up to join us at a special Conversation event on October 17. Expert panellists will discuss with the audience the upcoming election and its possible fallout.

    Beyond the race for the White House, arguably there’s nowhere else with a more high-stakes race. Most notably, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey has been exchanging barbs with Republican challenger Dave McCormick in an election that could tip the balance of the US Congress.

    Bellwether state

    Democratic political strategist James Carville once quipped that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between. Today, one could say it’s the Land of Walmart, Tractor Supply Co. and Fox News v the Land of Starbucks, Lululemon stores and MSNBC.

    Zooming out, an electoral map of the state looks a lot like that of the country: vast swaths of Republican red in the rural, central parts of the state, and dashes of Democratic deep blue in the east and the west denoting its population centres.

    Pennsylvania reflects the political realignment of both the Democratic and Republican parties in the last decade plus. Predominantly white, blue-collar Americans have gravitated to the Republican party. Meanwhile affluent urbanites have remade the Democratic party, formerly a base for the working class, into the party of the college educated and those who are less likely to be religious. But the Democrats still pick up 49% of the non-college educated and their share of the suburban vote has been rising.

    Neither presidential candidate, however, is writing off key constituencies in PA. The Harris team has opened up 50 headquarters across Pennsylvania in an effort to make inroads in conservative, rural communities. Meanwhile, Trump has made a major play for Black voters and had looked like he was on track to win the highest support from Black voters of any Republican presidential candidate in history.

    Particularly up for grabs are moderate suburbanites, such as those on Philadelphia’s “Main Line” (an area of well-off suburbs) and in upscale outskirts of the state capital of Harrisburg, who tend to be more liberal on social issues and conservative on economic issues.

    Democrats have a slight edge in overall registration numbers in PA, at 44% compared to Republicans at 40% (12% of Pennsylvanians identify as independents). However, the registration advantage for Democrats is the thinnest it’s been in decades.

    Big spending and big issues

    As 2024’s biggest electoral prize, no state has been bombarded with more cash and attention than PA. Harris and Trump have criss-crossed the state for months at locations such as the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex (a huge agricultural showground) and at union rallies.

    Harris and her allies have spent US$21.2 million (£16.9 million) on political ads in Pennsylvania (that’s three times what they’ve spent in Georgia, twice what they’ve spent in Michigan and 18 times what they’ve spent in North Carolina). To match, Trump and his allies have doled out $20.9 million in PA (twice what they’ve spent in Georgia, three times than they’ve spent in Michigan and eight times what they’ve spent in North Carolina).

    Dollars have funnelled into negative ads galore on the many issues that Americans more broadly face, including inflation and the cost of living crisis, crime, abortion and immigration. The war in Ukraine has featured as an especially central issue for Pennsylvania’s large Polish community in an attempt by the Democrats to harness historic fears about Russia.

    No topic, however, has sparked more controversy than fracking, the process of extracting oil and gas from underground rock. PA has become a national leader in fracking, triggering outrage among environmentalists, even as advocates tout the industry as an enormous wealth and job creator for the state.

    Harris, who declared as a Democratic presidential primary candidate in 2019 that: “There’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking,” now says “let me be absolutely clear, as I’ve been when I said it back in 2020, I will not ban fracking”. Trump has unequivocally championed fracking as part of his “drill, baby, drill” message on lowering prices and creating domestic energy independence.

    What’s in store

    If Pennsylvania’s presidential race is anywhere near as tight as the polls suggest, a winner might not be announced in Pennsylvania, or the country, on election night. With the counting of absentee and overseas ballots (and the possibility of a recount), the process could drag on for days, if not weeks.

    That’s one reason why both sides are already “lawyered-up” in anticipation of litigious combat. In 2020, the US Supreme Court declined to intervene in a case in Pennsylvania that tested rules surrounding the timing of when mail-in votes could still be counted. However, other aspects of electoral protocols or the integrity of ballots could again be challenged.

    Already in 2024, Pennsylvania has been politically consequential. The first assassination attempt of Trump occurred in the tiny town of Butler, PA. Harris’s decision to snub popular state governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate also raised concerns, and could lead to considerable second-guessing if she loses PA and the presidency. Pennsylvania also hosted the one (and likely only) debate between Harris and Trump.

    Whether Harris or Trump ends up as president will depend on whether their political stars align. Either way, those stars revolve around Pennsylvania, the centre of the political universe.

    Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The vote in Pennsylvania could decide the US election – it’s a battle for the suburbs – https://theconversation.com/the-vote-in-pennsylvania-could-decide-the-us-election-its-a-battle-for-the-suburbs-240587

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Cook, Entrepreneurs, Innovation, and Participation

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you for the kind introduction, Jennet.1 Let me start by saying my thoughts are with all the people in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia who have felt the force of Helene’s and Milton’s impact. I am saddened by the tragic loss of life and widespread disruption in this region. The Federal Reserve Board and other federal and state financial regulatory agencies are working with banks and credit unions in the affected area. As we normally do in these unfortunate situations, we are encouraging institutions operating in the affected areas to meet the needs of their communities.2
    It is an honor to stand before you and speak to this group of audacious, innovative women. I am also very happy to be back in Charleston. I grew up in Milledgeville, Georgia, just about 250 miles down the road. Some of my fondest childhood memories of traveling in the South, especially as a Girl Scout, include South Carolina.
    Today I would like to talk with you about the important role startups, new businesses, and entrepreneurship play in our economy from the perspective of a Federal Reserve policymaker. I also want to share a bit of my story. Just like many of you—including those who have started a business or those who dream of doing that someday—I have faced and overcome hurdles along a winding path.
    My StoryI was born and raised in Milledgeville, where my mother, Professor Mary Murray Cook, was a faculty member in the Nursing Department of Georgia College and State University. She was the first tenured African American faculty member at that university. My father, Rev. Payton B. Cook, was a chaplain and then in senior leadership at the hospital there. My family lived through the events that brought Milledgeville out of a deeply segregated South. My sisters and I were among the first African American students to desegregate the schools we attended. I drew strength from the example set by my family, others in the Civil Rights Movement, and the village that raised me and from their conviction in the hope and promise of a world that could and would continually improve.
    While I had an interest in economics even before I entered high school, that was not the initial field of study I pursued. I entered Spelman College in Atlanta as a physics and philosophy major. After graduation, I had the honor of studying at the University of Oxford as a Marshall Scholar.
    After Oxford, I continued my education at the University of Dakar in Senegal in West Africa. However, at the end of my year in Africa, it was the chance to climb Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania in East Africa where I discovered my love of economics. I hiked alongside a British economist, and, by the end of the trek, he convinced me that studying economics would provide me with the tools to address some big and important questions I had pondered for a long time.
    I went on to earn my Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley. Entering the economics profession came with its usual challenges, and, for women, a few more challenges existed. To this day, women are still underrepresented in economics. Women earned just 34 percent of bachelor’s degrees in economics and 36 percent of Ph.D.’s in economics in 2022, the most recent available data from the U.S. Department of Education. The share of women earning those degrees rose only modestly from 1999, when women earned about 32 percent of economics bachelor’s degrees and 27 percent of Ph.D.’s. The data stand in sharp contrast to all science and engineering degrees, including in social science fields, where women earned roughly half of degrees granted in 2022.3
    Education was paramount in my family and was construed as a means of realizing the promise of the Civil Rights Movement and continual improvement of our society and economy. Of course, economics, like physics, is a field where math skills are vitally important. Between my mother, my aunts, and my extended family, I had essentially understood STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics)-related jobs to be women’s work. I was grateful to have these role models in my orbit to give me the confidence to undertake study in a STEM field.
    Access and encouragement for girls to pursue study in math and science are a significant concern. Economist Dania V. Francis’s research shows that Black girls are disproportionately under-recommended for Advanced Placement calculus.4 The course is often a gateway for economics, for STEM classes, and for college preparation, in general.5
    My mentors and role models encouraged careful study, teaching, and scholarship and helped me block out the voices saying I did not belong at each juncture. They encouraged my work and have been champions for me. As a result, I have been committed to serving as a mentor, as well. For several years, I was the director of and taught in the American Economic Association’s Summer Program, an important training ground for disadvantaged students considering economics careers. Each year, the share of students who are women oscillated between 41 percent and 67 percent, much higher than the enrollment in undergraduate economics courses nationally.6 I told those students—and continue to tell them as they make their way through graduate programs in economics and through the economics profession—”You belong here. Your insights are unique, and the profession will benefit from them.”
    In my career as an economist, I studied, researched, and taught in roles at universities and worked in the private sector and in government before I was nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate to become a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in 2022. I am honored and humbled to serve in this role and proud to be the first African American woman and first woman of color to serve on the Board of Governors. As Fed policymakers, we make decisions affecting the entire economy and the well-being of every American by focusing on the dual mandate given to us by Congress: maximum employment and stable prices.
    Entrepreneurs’ Vital Role in the EconomyIn my years of conducting research and while at the Board, I have met many inventors, innovators, and entrepreneurs who made important contributions to the economy. Many of them happened to be women who were very knowledgeable, creative, and inspiring. So I want to discuss the vital role entrepreneurship and new business creation play in our economy.
    You might ask what interest I have in this subject, as a monetary policymaker focused closely on the dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. Well, this topic has interested me for a long time, and I conducted a fair amount of research on entrepreneurship and innovation before joining the Board. But the topic is also important precisely because of our dual mandate. To convince you of this, I will explain a few of the ways in which economists think about entrepreneurship, and how they relate to the dual mandate.
    The first is the most basic: For many people—many millions, in fact—entrepreneurship or self-employment is a career choice.7 It is their preferred way of participating in the labor market and obtaining income for themselves and their families. They prefer to be their own bosses, with all the benefits and risks that entails.8 But whether they end up hiring others or not, self-employed individuals support the labor market by providing a job for themselves.
    A second way economists think about entrepreneurship is a little broader: New business creation is a large contributor to overall job growth. In fact, new businesses punch above their weight. For example, during the handful of years before the pandemic, in a typical year only about 8 percent of all employer firms were new entrants, but these new entrants accounted for about 15 percent of annual gross job creation.9 And research has found that this job creation effect is long lasting. Even though many new firms do not survive, those that do survive tend to grow rapidly over 5 to 10 years, largely offsetting the job losses from those firms that shut down.10
    A third way economists think about entrepreneurship, which I have explored in my own research, is that a small but critical subset of new firms are innovators—they introduce new products or business processes that change how we consume or produce.11 As such, they make large contributions to overall productivity growth over time. That is, innovative entrepreneurs help enable us to do more with less—and even more so if access to innovation participation is equitable.12 It is important that everyone, including women, historically underrepresented groups, people from certain geographic regions, and other diverse representative groups, can participate in the entrepreneurship and innovation economy. In my research, I have found that investors underrate the prospects of Black-founded, or simply outsider-founded, startups in early funding stages. Better assessment of the early stages of invention and innovation could broaden the range of new entrants and the ideas they contribute to their local communities and the broader economy.
    Consider the Dual MandateSo let’s return to the dual mandate. You can now understand that self-employment and entrepreneurial job creation are relevant for our employment mandate. Indeed, one could argue that entrepreneurs are critical to Fed policymakers’ efforts to promote maximum employment. And the productivity gains we reap from entrepreneurship are like productivity growth from any other source. When the pace of productivity growth increases, it allows for economic activity and wage growth to be robust while also being consistent with price stability.
    The importance of business startups to our dual mandate objectives is why I have watched closely as various measures of new business formation have surged since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Applications for new businesses jumped to a record pace shortly after the pandemic struck the U.S.13 The pace of applications has remained elevated above pre-pandemic norms all the way from the summer of 2020 to the most recent data, even though the pace appears to be cooling some this year.14 At first, it might have seemed like these business applications were mainly being submitted by people who lost their jobs, or perhaps by an increase in “gig economy” work. There was doubtless some of that going on, but research and data since then have painted a more optimistic picture.
    When researchers look across areas of the country, the pandemic business applications had only a weak connection with layoffs. The surge in applications persisted long after overall layoffs fell to the subdued pace we have seen since early 2021. The applications did have a strong relationship with workers voluntarily leaving their jobs. Some quitting workers may have chosen to join these new businesses as founders or early employees. And surging business applications were soon followed by new businesses hiring workers and expanding. Over the last two years of available data, new firms created 1.9 million jobs per year, a pace not seen since the eve of the Global Financial Crisis.15
    The industry patterns of this surge reflect shifts in consumer and business needs resulting from the pandemic and its aftermath. For example, in large metro areas, new business creation shifted from city centers to the suburbs, perhaps because of the increase in remote work. Suddenly, people wanted to eat lunch or go to the gym closer to their home, rather than close to their downtown office. Likewise, consumer and business tastes for more online purchases, with the shipping requirements that entails, are evident in the surge of business entry in the online retail and transportation sectors. But this is not only about moving restaurants closer to workers or changing patterns of goods consumption. There was also a particularly strong entry into high-tech industries, such as data processing and hosting, as well as research and development services.16 That may have more to do with developments like artificial intelligence than with the pandemic specifically, as I discussed in a speech in Atlanta last week.17
    Economists will spend years debating the various causes of the surge in business creation during and soon after the pandemic. Perhaps strong monetary and fiscal policy backstopping aggregate demand played some role, or pandemic social safety net policies, or simply the accommodative financial conditions of 2020 and 2021.18 Indeed, more research is needed and will be the subject of many dissertations in the near future.
    I do think a large part of the story is ultimately a case of resourceful and determined American entrepreneurs, perhaps including some of you, responding to the tumultuous shocks of the pandemic. They, like some of you, stepped in to meet the rapidly changing needs of households and businesses. This points to a fourth way economists like to think about entrepreneurship, which is that entrepreneurship plays a big role in helping the economy adapt to change. Research suggests that entrepreneurs and the businesses they create are highly responsive to big economic shocks, and the COVID-19 pandemic was certainly a seismic shock.19 To be sure, the future is uncertain. It is unclear what the productivity effects of the pandemic surge of new businesses, particularly in high tech, will be.20 And whether that surge will continue is an open question; after all, the pre-pandemic period was a period of declining rates of new business creation, and the pandemic surge itself does appear to be cooling off recently.21
    ConclusionFor now, let me say that I am grateful that entrepreneurs continue to give us a hand in meeting our employment mandate, and whatever productivity gains we may reap in coming years as a result may help ease tradeoffs with inflation as well.
    Finally, I will share one last story about why South Carolina will always hold a special place in my and my sisters’ hearts. Every summer and at Thanksgiving, we would travel through the Palmetto State to our grandparents’ house in Winston-Salem. Sitting in the back seat of the station wagon, we were entranced by the many colorful signs along Interstate 95 advertising what I, as a child, viewed as South Carolina’s number one attraction: the South of the Border roadside amusement park. We begged our parents to stop every time. It was an epic struggle that went on for more than a decade. Once or twice they did relent, a sweet childhood victory! And here is the funny thing about travels—paths can cross. The timing is such that my sisters and I may have even been helped by a waiter named Ben, a young man from Dillon, South Carolina, who would go on to be Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke! 22 Perhaps it was the world’s way of foreshadowing.
    Thank you for having me here in Charleston. It is inspiring to meet this group of bold, entrepreneurial women in South Carolina, and I look forward to continuing our conversation.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. See Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve Board, National Credit Union Administration, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and State Financial Regulators (2024), “Federal and State Financial Regulatory Agencies Issue Interagency Statement on Supervisory Practices regarding Financial Institutions Affected by Hurricane Helene,” joint press release, October 2. Return to text
    3. See U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Completions Survey, available on the NCES website at https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/survey-components/7. Return to text
    4. See Dania V. Francis, Angela C.M. de Oliveira, and Carey Dimmitt (2019), “Do School Counselors Exhibit Bias in Recommending Students for Advanced Coursework?” B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, vol. 19 (July), pp. 1–17. Return to text
    5. See Lisa D. Cook and Anna Gifty Opoku-Agyeman (2019), “‘It Was a Mistake for Me to Choose This Field,’” New York Times, September 30. Return to text
    6. See Lisa D. Cook and Christine Moser (2024), “Lessons for Expanding the Share of Disadvantaged Students in Economics from the AEA Summer Program at Michigan State University,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 38 (Summer), pp. 191–208. Return to text
    7. There is no single way to measure the number of self-employed individuals and related businesses, but it certainly numbers in the millions. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey indicates there are roughly 10 million unincorporated and 7 million incorporated self-employed individuals. Separate data on businesses from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that, as of 2021, there were about 25 million nonemployer and 800,000 employer sole proprietorships (Nonemployer Statistics; Statistics of U.S. Businesses).
    For analysis of inconsistencies between self-employment data sources, see Katharine G. Abraham, John C. Haltiwanger, Claire Hou, Kristin Sandusky, and James R. Spletzer (2021), “Reconciling Survey and Administrative Measures of Self-Employment,” Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 39 (October), pp. 825–60. Return to text
    8. See Erik Hurst and Benjamin Wild Pugsley (2011), “What Do Small Businesses Do? (PDF)” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, pp. 73–142; and Erik G. Hurst and Benjamin W. Pugsley (2017), “Wealth, Tastes, and Entrepreneurial Choice,” in John Haltiwanger, Erik Hurst, Javier Miranda, and Antoinette Schoar, eds., Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges (Chicago: University of Chicago Press). Return to text
    9. Gross job creation refers to all jobs created by entering and expanding establishments. Data are from the Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics, averaged for 2015–19. New firms’ share of net job creation is much higher, but this is partly an artifact of measurement practices: Firms with an age less than one measured in annual data cannot contribute negatively to net job creation. Return to text
    10. See John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2013), “Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young,” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 95 (May), pp. 347–61; and Ryan Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2014), “The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 28 (Summer), pp. 3–24. Return to text
    11. For evidence on the importance of innovating young and small firms, see Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, Nicholas Bloom, and William Kerr (2018), “Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth,” American Economic Review, vol. 108 (November), pp. 3450–91. For recent trends in technology diffusion of relevance to business entry, see Ufuk Akcigit and Sina T. Ates (2023), “What Happened to US Business Dynamism?” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 131 (August), pp. 2059–2124. Return to text
    12. See Lisa D. Cook (2011), “Inventing Social Capital: Evidence from African American Inventors, 1843–1930,” Explorations in Economic History, vol. 48 (December), pp. 507–18; Lisa D. Cook (2014), “Violence and Economic Activity: Evidence from African American Patents, 1870–1940,” Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 19 (June), pp. 221–57; and Lisa D. Cook (2020), “Policies to Broaden Participation in the Innovation Process (PDF),” Hamilton Project Policy Proposal 2020-11 (Washington: Brookings Institution, August). Return to text
    13. “Business applications” refers to applications for new Employer Identification Numbers submitted to the Internal Revenue Service. These are reported by the U.S. Census Bureau in the Business Formation Statistics. An application does not necessarily mean an actual firm with employees, revenue, or both will result. Return to text
    14. Unless otherwise noted, the facts described in this section are documented in Ryan A. Decker and John Haltiwanger (2024), “Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: A Brief Update,” working paper, September; and Ryan A. Decker and John Haltiwanger (2023), “Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences? (PDF)” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, pp. 249–302. Return to text
    15. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report new firm job creation of 1.9 million, on average, in 2022 and 2023, the highest pace since 2007. Alternative data on firm births from the Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics, which lag the BED by one year, report 2.5 million jobs created by new firms in 2022, also the highest pace since 2007. Return to text
    16. See Ryan Decker and John Haltiwanger (2024), “High Tech Business Entry in the Pandemic Era,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 19). Return to text
    17. See Lisa D. Cook (2024), “Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity,” speech delivered at “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work,” a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, and Richmond, Atlanta, October 1. Return to text
    18. For a potential role of fiscal policy, see Catherine E. Fazio, Jorge Guzman, Yupeng Liu, and Scott Stern (2021), “How Is COVID Changing the Geography of Entrepreneurship? Evidence from the Startup Cartography Project,” NBER Working Paper Series 28787 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, May). For safety net programs (specifically expanded unemployment insurance), see Joonkyu Choi, Samuel Messer, Michael Navarrete, and Veronika Penciakova (2024), “Unemployment Benefits Expansion and Business Formation,” working paper, April. For the importance of financial conditions for entrepreneurship in past business cycles, see Michael Siemer (2019), “Employment Effects of Financial Constraints during the Great Recession,” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 101 (March), pp. 16–29; and Teresa C. Fort, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2013), “How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size,” IMF Economic Review, vol. 61 (3), pp. 520–59. Return to text
    19. Examples of research finding a large role for business entry in responding to aggregate shocks include Manuel Adelino, Song Ma, and David Robinson (2017), “Firm Age, Investment Opportunities, and Job Creation,” Journal of Finance, vol. 72 (June), pp. 999–1038; Ryan A. Decker, Meagan McCollum, and Gregory B. Upton, Jr. (2024), “Boom Town Business Dynamics,” Journal of Human Resources, vol. 59 (March), pp. 627–51; and Fatih Karahan, Benjamin Pugsley, and Ayşegűl Şahin (2024), “Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit,” American Economic Review, vol. 114 (July), pp. 1986–2023. Return to text
    20. The last period of robust productivity growth in the U.S., the late 1990s and early 2000s, was preceded by several years by strong business creation in high-tech industries; see Lucia Foster, Cheryl Grim, John C. Haltiwanger, and Zoltan Wolf (2021), “Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth,” in Carol Corrado, Jonathan Haskel, Javier Miranda, and Daniel Sichel, eds., Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century (Chicago: University of Chicago Press). Return to text
    21. The number of annual new firms as a share of all firms declined from around 12 percent in the 1980s, on average, to around 9 percent in the period of 2010–19. New firms’ share of gross job creation declined from nearly 20 percent to less than 15 percent over the same period. Data are from Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics. The pre-pandemic trend decline in entry rates was documented by Ryan Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2014), “The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 28 (Summer), pp. 3–24. Return to text
    22. See Ben S. Bernanke (2009), “Brief Remarks,” speech delivered at the Interstate Interchange Dedication Ceremony, Dillon, S.C., March 7. Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Immersive Quantum Computing Workshop Gets Microscopic

    Source: US State of Connecticut

    What do qubits, parallelism, entanglement, photonics and decoherence have in common?

    The answer to this question, and many more, will be top of mind when UConn’s College of Engineering (CoE) hosts a two-day Quantum Computing (QC) Workshop, November 20-21 at UConn Health in Farmington. The workshop will feature hands-on learning about quantum computing fundamentals, algorithms, security impacts, communications and applications.

    This interactive event is being coordinated by UConn’s Center for Advanced Engineering Education and the School of Computing, in collaboration with QuantumCT and the Connecticut Advanced Computing Center. It is open to the public, including industry leaders, engineering organizations, faculty, state government, and anyone interested in the field.

    Sanguthevar Rajasekaran, director of UConn’s School of Computing, says quantum computing offers the potential of speeding up computations by an exponential factor and can make a huge impact on every walk of life.

    “Quantum computing exploits the unique features of quantum mechanics to solve problems quickly and more efficiently than traditional computing,” he explains. “QC applications are far and wide, embracing medicine, manufacturing, drug design, climate modeling and much more. The impact of this rapidly evolving technology appears limitless and can provide significant benefits for industry, science, health care, and society at large.”

    According to Nora Sutton, Director of the Center for Advanced Engineering Education, workshop activities will include interactions with industry and academic experts, comprehensive exploration of quantum computing, and networking opportunities with peers and industry leaders.

    “We’re very excited about this workshop, which is designed to immerse participants in the cutting-edge world of quantum technology,” says Sutton. “These real-world applications will help participants uncover the revolutionary, transformative potential in AI, cybersecurity, health care, and more. UConn and CoE are on the forefront of quantum learning, and working to become an educational leader in this important, dynamic field.”

    Quantum mechanics is the area of physics that studies the behavior of particles at a microscopic level. At subatomic levels, the equations that describe how particles behave is different from those that describe the macroscopic world. Quantum computing is a multidisciplinary field comprising aspects of computer science, physics, and mathematics that utilizes quantum mechanics to solve complex problems faster than on classical computers.

    Quantum computers take advantage of these behaviors to perform computations in a completely new way. The field includes hardware research and application development. Potential benefits include advanced machine learning, portfolio optimization in finance, simulation of chemical systems, significant healthcare applications and solving problems currently impossible even using powerful supercomputers.

    Visit the UConn Engineering site for more information or to register.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: DBEDT NEWS RELEASE: DIGITAL EQUITY INNOVATION AWARDS HONORS THOSE HELPING TO CLOSE THE DIGITAL DIVIDE IN HAWAI‘I

    Source: US State of Hawaii

    DBEDT NEWS RELEASE: DIGITAL EQUITY INNOVATION AWARDS HONORS THOSE HELPING TO CLOSE THE DIGITAL DIVIDE IN HAWAI‘I

    Posted on Oct 9, 2024 in Latest Department News, Newsroom

    DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TOURISM

     

     JOSH GREEN, M.D.

    GOVERNOR

     

    SYLVIA LUKE

    LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

     

    JAMES KUNANE TOKIOKA

    DIRECTOR

     

    CHUNG I. CHANG

    STRATEGIC BROADBAND COORDINATOR

     

     

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

    October 9, 2024

     

    DIGITAL EQUITY INNOVATION AWARDS HONORS THOSE HELPING TO CLOSE THE DIGITAL DIVIDE IN HAWAI‘I

     

    First-ever awards held during Digital Inclusion Week

     

    In recognizing the work of individuals and organizations who help provide internet access and close the digital divide across the state of Hawai‘i, 18 recipients of the first-ever Digital Equity Innovation Awards (DEIA) were honored today.

     

    Conducted in conjunction with National Digital Inclusion Week (October 7-11), the awards ceremony this morning recognized pioneers, future innovators, dedicated advocates, impactful organizations and data-driven leaders making significant strides in digital equity. This includes providing others with access to technology from broadband connectivity to devices, as well as teaching the necessary digital skills that are beneficial in employment, education, healthcare and other important facets of everyday life.

     

    The digital awards were organized by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) Hawai‘i Broadband and Digital Equity Office (HBDEO), the Broadband Hui and Pacific International Center for High Technology Research (PICHTR), in partnership with the four county governments and the islands’ nonprofit community access television providers, ʻŌlelo Community Media, Hōʻike Kaua‘i Community Television, Akakū Maui Community Media and Nā Leo TV. The awards recognized those in each of the four counties in the following categories:

     

    • Digital Equity Pioneer Award: Those making outstanding contributions to closing the digital divide in each of Hawai‘i’s counties through innovative access and skills training.
    • Future Innovators Award: Student teams driving digital inclusion within their schools and communities with creative solutions and leadership.
    • Digital Equity Luminary Award: Individuals championing digital equity through sustained advocacy and impactful leadership.
    • Community Impact Award: Organizations with measurable success in fostering digital inclusion and reducing disparities.
    • Digital Equity Beacon Award: Awarding those who effectively use data to tell stories, measure progress, and drive decision-making.

     

    Hawai‘i Lt. Governor Sylvia Luke, who last year announced the launch of the state’s “Connect Kākou” initiative to expand broadband service statewide through anticipated federal funding, praised the accomplishments of the DEIA winners.

     

    “Achieving accessible and affordable high-quality internet for all of Hawaiʻi is the commitment of Connect Kākou. Making this a reality will require a collective effort—from government and nonprofits to businesses, students, educators, and digital equity leaders,” Lt. Gov. Luke said. “Mahalo to the dedicated community champions who are paving the way to create a future that keeps us all connected for generations to come.”

     

    The awardees are listed below and grouped by county:

     

    City and County of Honolulu

    Dotty Kelly-Paddock, Hui O Hau‘ula (Community Impact Award)

    Dan Smith, Hawai‘i Broadband Hui (Beacon Award)

    Stacey Aldrich, Hawai‘i State Librarian (Luminary Award)

    Wendy Dakroub and Sasha Kamahele, Tech Savvy Teens (Future Innovators Award)

    Jill Takasaki Canfield, Hawai‘i Literacy (Pioneer Award)

     

    County of Hawai‘i

    Ron and Doreen Kodani, Pi‘ihonua Hawaiian Homestead Community Association (Luminary Award)

    Brad Kaleo Bennett, ‘Auamo Collaborative (Beacon Award)

    Pono Kekela, Native Hawaiian Chamber of Commerce (Pioneer Award)

    Paola Vidulich, SPACE (Future Innovators Award)

     

    County of Kaua‘i

    David Braman, Amalia Abigania and Leah Aiwohi, Kaua‘i High School (Future Innovators Award)

    Pete Simon, Kuleana.work (Pioneer Award)

    James Thesken, Kaua‘i Technology Group (Beacon Award)

    Jackie Kaina, Kaua‘i Economic Development Board (Luminary Award)

    Ken Dickinson, Kūpuna Connections (Community Impact Award)

     

    County of Maui

    Bill Sides, Hāna Business Council East Maui Broadband (Luminary Award)

    Marc Sanders, Hāna Business Council Broadband Committee (Pioneer Award)

    Ka‘ala Souza, Māpunawai Inc. (Luminary Award)

    Michael Shiffler, Red Lightning (Community Impact Award) 

     

    A video of the DEIA awards program can be viewed at this link: https://youtu.be/h9adTnDXZcc

     

    The DEIA awards program will also be broadcast at 10 a.m. today on the Hōʻike Kaua‘i Community Television, Akakū Maui Community Media and Nā Leo TV public access channels on the neighbor islands, and tonight at 7 p.m. on O‘ahu on ʻŌlelo Community Media.

     

     

    About Hawai‘i Broadband and Digital Equity Office (HBDEO):

    HBDEO was established within the state of Hawai‘i Department of Business, Economic

    Development and Tourism with a mission to support and coordinate statewide deployment of high-speed internet access (broadband) and to achieve the goals of digital equity and adoption for all residents of Hawai‘i. HBDEO’s functions include the coordination, implementation, promotion, funding and managing of programs that ensure the equitable distribution of digital technologies and provide pathways to maximize Hawai‘i’s competitiveness in the digital economy.

     

    About Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT):

    DBEDT is Hawai‘i’s resource center for economic and statistical data, business development opportunities, energy and conservation information, as well as foreign trade advantages. DBEDT’s mission is to achieve a Hawai‘i economy that embraces innovation and is globally competitive, dynamic and productive, providing opportunities for all Hawai‘i’s citizens. Through its attached agencies, the department fosters planned community development, creates affordable workforce housing units in high-quality living environments and promotes innovation sector job growth.

     

     

    # # #

     

     

    Media Contact:

     

    Laci Goshi

    Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism

    808-518-5480

    [email protected]

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Scottish Government Accounts 2023-24

    Source: Scottish Government

    Consolidated accounts given unqualified audit opinion.

    The Scottish Government accounts for the last financial year have been given an unqualified audit opinion. 

    In 2023-24 Ministers were required to make tough choices to navigate the “most challenging financial situation since devolution”.

    The Scottish Government’s accounts record total spend of £53,980 million. An underspend of £277 million – around 0.5% of the overall budget – has been carried over in full to be spent in 2024-25.

    Finance Secretary Shona Robison said:

    “Since this government took office, we have consistently managed our fixed budget responsibly and I am pleased the annual accounts have been given an unqualified audit opinion for every one of those years.

    “The last financial year was among the most challenging since devolution, and we have responded to higher inflation and cost of living pressures by making tough decisions to protect the most vulnerable in society.

    “The Scottish Government cannot overspend on its Budget, and in 2023-24 we left a small underspend to ensure we could manage any unexpected funding pressures. Every penny of this has been allocated for spending in 2024-25.

    “We will continue to work to ensure the sustainability of Scotland’s finances as we prioritise our spending towards eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency and improving Scotland’s public services.”

    Background

    The Scottish Government Consolidated Accounts for the year ended 31 March 2024 – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

    The Public Finance Minister recently updated Parliament on the Scottish Government’s ten-year programme of reform to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of our public services, and prioritise prevention. Together this will improve outcomes, promote equality and ensure fiscal sustainability.

    Letter from the Minister for Public Finance to the Convener of 23 September 2024 (parliament.scot)

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Deputy Prime Minister launches first-ever Mayoral Council

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    First-ever Mayoral Council meeting held in Newcastle-upon-Tyne to discuss the future of devolution

    Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner today (October 10) chaired the first-ever Mayoral Council – hosted in the North East – to discuss how best to shift power away from Westminster and into communities. 

    Regional mayors were invited to the roundtable at The Common Room in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, to share their views on the development of the upcoming English Devolution White Paper. This will set out the government’s plans to widen devolution to more areas and deepen the powers of existing mayors and their combined authorities, ensuring they have the tools needed to boost economic growth. 

    The Deputy Prime Minister established the Mayoral Council to strengthen the relationships between central government and the mayors, ensuring those with skin in the game are involved in discussions concerning devolution and the White Paper has the fingerprints of local people on it. 

    Three days ahead of the International Investment Summit, the first Mayoral Council meeting will focus on investment and growth, with plans underway to devolve a range of powers across areas like planning, skills, transport, and employment support. This is a key moment to ensure everyone is collectively playing their part to maximise the opportunity the Summit presents for the whole of the UK.   

    Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said:

    It’s been fantastic to kick-off the first Mayoral Council today, ensuring our mayors have a proper seat at the table as we shape the future of English devolution.

    We want to learn from those who are already seeing the game-changing benefits of devolution as we work to shift more power away from Westminster and back into our communities, where it belongs.

    The Council will meet every quarter and will allow for increased partnership working, helping to further bring regional insight to national policy, and ensure everyone is aligned with the government’s mission to boost economic growth.

    Ministers across government will also be invited to future sessions to strengthen that relationship between the government and mayors, who have previously been asked to develop ambitious long-term Local Growth Plans focused on the key growth priorities for their region that will support shared national growth and deliver the national industrial strategy. These plans will be focused on the biggest opportunities and most challenging constraints to growth, and the government will work hand-in-hand with the mayors to take them forward. 

    The meeting will help to shape the White Paper, which will set out a presumption in favour of devolution with an enhanced devolution framework, giving local leaders the tools they need to deliver for their communities, alongside stronger governance structures and clearer accountability.

    The meeting comes ahead of the Council of the Nations and Regions in Scotland, which will see the Prime Minister bring together First Ministers, Northern Ireland’s First Minister and deputy First Minister and regional Mayors from across England, as the UK Government forges new partnerships, resets relationships and seizes the opportunity to secure long term investment with the aim of boosting growth and living standards in every part of the UK.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Sustainable action to tackle rising prison population

    Source: Scottish Government

    Emergency legislation to be introduced.

    Emergency legislation will be introduced to Parliament to contribute to the sustainable long-term management of Scotland’s prison population, Justice Secretary Angela Constance told MSPs.

    The Bill, to be introduced in November, will propose a change to the release point for short-term prisoners serving sentences of less than four years. At present they are released at the halfway point of their sentence. Under these new proposals they will be released after serving 40% of their sentence, with prisoners serving sentences for domestic abuse or sexual offences excluded from the changes.

    The Justice Secretary said the wellbeing of victims and the safety of communities will be a priority when implementing the measures, and the Scottish Government will engage directly with victims organisations.

    The proposals, scheduled to come into effect from February next year, would apply to both those currently in prison and those sentenced in future. If backed by Parliament, it is estimated the changes could result in a sustained reduction to the prison population of between 260 and 390.

    The proposals in the legislation would also give Ministers powers to change the point of release under licence conditions for long-term prisoners serving sentences of four years or more. This follows the recent public consultation on long-term prisoner release, which highlighted various areas requiring more in-depth consideration with partners.

    While not currently proposed, contingency planning for the emergency early release of short-term prisoners is being undertaken, should it be needed to ensure the health and welfare of prison staff and prisoners during a continuing rise in the prison population.

    In her Parliamentary statement, Ms Constance underlined the importance of public safety and putting in place a sustainable long-term strategy to tackle the rising prison population.

    Speaking after delivering her statement, the Justice Secretary said:

    “I am prioritising actions that can deliver a sustained reduction to the prison population. Public safety remains paramount, which is why I am focusing on short-term prisoners only and with built-in exemptions.

    “I recognise the concerns that may arise from victims and their families and I am committed to working closely with victim support organisations on key issues.

    “The measures I have outlined are necessary to support prisons to continue to function effectively and I remain grateful to Scottish Prison Service staff for their continued resilience. We must ensure that we have a prison estate which houses those who pose a risk to the public and provides the full range of support needed for people to leave on a better path and never turn back.”

    These prison management measures follow yesterday’s announcement that victims of crime will receive improved support, advice and information under reforms to the Victim Notification Scheme that entitles victims or close relatives of homicide victims to certain information about the person responsible for the crime.

    Background

    Justice Secretary’s statement to parliament

    Latest prison population figure – 8,322 as of Thursday 10 October

    Long-term prisoner release consultation and analysis

    The arrangements announced in Parliament build on a range of other measures already taken to deal with the high prison population, including strengthening the availability of community-based sentences, which figures indicate can be more effective in reducing re-offending among those who have committed less serious offences.

    These measures include:

    • increased Scottish Government funding for community justice, up by £14 million in 2024-25, to £148 million in total
    • to address high numbers of individuals in prison on remand, for example ahead of trial or pre-sentence, introducing electronically-monitored bail, with the expansion of bail supervision to all areas. Usage of bail supervision is now at record levels
    • implementing measures in early July 2024 to enable courts to take into account time spent on electronically-monitored bail when sentencing, as Parliament legislated for in the Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Act 2023

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Bolstering local journalism to strengthen democracy

    Source: Microsoft

    Headline: Bolstering local journalism to strengthen democracy

    A free press is essential to healthy democracy, and local journalism is a critical component of a free press. Microsoft’s Democracy Forward initiative works to preserve, protect, and advance the fundamentals of democracy by safeguarding open and secure democratic processes, promoting a healthy information ecosystem, and advocating for corporate civic responsibility.

    Four years ago, we launched a journalism initiative to explore ways in which we could help address the growing crisis facing independent local news organizations around the world. Two years ago, our Vice Chair and President Brad Smith and USAID Administrator Samantha Power announced our plan to partner with Internews to build a Media Viability Accelerator (MVA). We were thrilled to officially launch this tool during a panel event at the UN General Assembly last month.

    Bolstering Independent Journalism through the Media Viability Accelerator

    The Media Viability Accelerator is a free web analytics platform built by Internews and Microsoft Azure. Funded by USAID and Microsoft’s Democracy Forward initiative, the MVA aims to strengthen independent journalism by helping participating organizations achieve financial sustainability. Using Azure AI, the MVA harnesses the power of big data and machine learning to provide performance insights while ensuring that participants retain control over their own data. Through the MVA, media outlets can access a multilingual tool that visualizes performance data and receive actionable insights to improve performance.

    Graphic of how the Media Viability Accelerator (MVA) functions.

    More than 250 media outlets and over 500 journalists used the platform during the MVA’s initial pilot phase. Our goal is to empower over 1,000 more media outlets and thousands more journalists over the next two years, reaching audiences of hundreds of millions of people. Strengthening local journalism helps strengthen democracies around the world by ensuring that communities and voters have accurate, credible information about what’s happening around them, including and especially elections.

    Strengthening journalism globally can also help turn the tide on rising authoritarianism. One of the guests on the panel we cohosted to launch the MVA was Juan Holmann, the publisher of Nicaragua’s longest-running newspaper, La Prensa. Holmann, who spent a year and a half in one of Nicaragua’s most notorious prisons, later said of his experience:

    “I left jail with a stronger conviction that I have to continue fighting for freedom of expression. The most important right is the right to live, to be born, and to be. And the second most important is the right to free expression. The first right is useless if the second is taken away from us. Freedom of expression is the greatest because it is what makes us what we are. Freedom of expression is the right to be educated, the right to learn, to know, and to discern.”

    We’re grateful to have La Prensa as a participant in the MVA, and we’re grateful for the tremendous work Internews has put into building and running this platform. We look forward to supporting its continued growth in the years to come.

    Strengthening Democracy through Partnerships with News Organizations

    As part of our efforts to strengthen democracy around the world, we have announced projects with a number of organizations designed to help journalists and newsrooms deploy AI responsibly in newsgathering, as well as bolster business practices to help build sustainable newsrooms. These ongoing partnerships include:

    • The Institute for Nonprofit News is leveraging AI to curate stories from the Rural News Network and connect rural residents with the stories most relevant to them via SMS messaging. Up to 30 newsrooms are also receiving stipends to produce and distribute voter information guides.
    • The Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY brought 25 experienced journalists to a tuition-free program to explore ways to incorporate generative AI into their work and newsrooms in a three-month hybrid and highly interactive program. The AI Journalism Lab has added two new upcoming cohorts, one focused on adoption and another focused on leadership.
    • The Online News Association launched programming to support journalists and newsroom leaders as they navigated the evolving AI ecosystem. ONA’s AI in Journalism Initiative offered a menu of opportunities addressing what is possible across the newsroom through AI and offered workshops to experiment with tools and learn about best practices. More than 2,000 journalists have been reached through in-person and virtual programming this year.
    • The GroundTruth Project, which sends local journalists into newsrooms around the world through its Report for America and Report for the World programs, added an AI track of work for its corps members through the AI in Local News initiative to explore tool adoption. The project helped local newsrooms work together to explore use cases for AI in newsgathering.
    • Semafor harnessed AI tools to assist journalists in their research and source discovery with Semafor Signals, which helped journalists provide a diverse array of credible local, national, and global sources to their audience. They also created an elections display to show connections between different countries in a massive global election year.

    As the media landscape continues to evolve in response to new technology, we are doubling down on our efforts to provide journalists with the tools they need to deliver timely, accurate information to their communities. In doing so, we can help ensure that the “fourth pillar” of democracy remains robust and resilient.

    We expect to have updated impact data on the above partnerships soon and will update this post once this information is available. News outlets or other organizations interested in joining the Media Viability Accelerator can visit http://www.mva.net to learn more.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Joint Statement on Critical Minerals and Critical Raw Materials Cooperation

    Source: Government of Canada News

    On the margins of the G7 Ministerial Meeting on Industry and Technological Innovation, chaired by Minister Urso and attended virtually by Minister Champagne, Canada and Italy released the following Statement of Intent for Canada and Italy to deepen collaboration on critical minerals and critical raw materials:

    On the margins of the G7 Ministerial Meeting on Industry and Technological Innovation, chaired by Minister Urso and attended virtually by Minister Champagne, Canada and Italy released the following Statement of Intent for Canada and Italy to deepen collaboration on critical minerals and critical raw materials:

    With the adoption of the Italy-Canada Roadmap for Enhanced Cooperation on the margins of the G7 Summit in June and Canada’s ongoing work under the 2022 Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy, Italy and Canada agreed to strengthen collaboration on energy security and sustainability. We have committed to regular engagement on these issues in the form of an Energy Dialogue, focused on critical minerals, the energy transition, sustainable fuels, energy storage solutions and enabling technologies, and advanced nuclear reactors and fusion research.

    Canada and Italy recognize the importance of international partnerships to make critical minerals and critical raw materials supply chains more diversified, transparent, resilient, responsible, circular, resource efficient, and sustainable. Canada and Italy seek to enhance cooperation in this domain through the promotion of trade and investment, exchanges of policies, regulations, best practices, technical and ESG standards.

    Canada and Italy will advance this cooperation through the following areas of work:

    Strengthening Supply Chains: Promote critical mineral value chain trade and investment opportunities in Canada and Italy through government efforts to facilitate B2B matchmaking and Canada-Italy co-investments in projects.

    International Collaboration & Multilateral Engagement: Coordinate participation through leading international fora addressing critical mineral supply chains security and resiliency, including but not limited to the Minerals Security Partnership, the International Energy Agency, the G7, the Conference on Critical Materials and Minerals and through the Sustainable Critical Minerals Alliance.

    Research and Innovation: Discuss opportunities for joint research through Horizon Europe, which Canada joined in July 2024. Italy and Canada will work jointly to improve recycling of critical minerals and critical raw materials.

    Mapping and exploration: Share best practices on respective exploration plans and explore opportunities for collaboration between the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) and the Geological Survey of Canada.

    We have committed to regular engagement on these issues through the Energy Dialogue, to be launched by Canada’s Minister for Energy and Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson and Security Gilberto Pichetto Fratin in the coming months. Our Statement of Intent today demonstrates Canada and Italy’s strong partnership, and we hope that it will bring many opportunities to continue building on our longstanding bilateral relationship. 

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Statement by the Prime Minister on World Mental Health Day

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    The Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, today issued the following statement on World Mental Health Day:

    “Mental health matters. It always has. But for too long, seeking support for mental health struggles was stigmatized. Like something to be ashamed about. And that made people struggle even more. On World Mental Health Day, we raise awareness and our voices about the importance of caring for our mental health. We have open and honest conversations about caring for ourselves and for others. We get rid of the barriers that society has put up about seeking out help.

    “Mental health is a critical part of our mandate. Earlier this year, we announced the new Youth Mental Health Fund, which will help community health organizations across the country make sure younger Canadians can access the mental health care they need and deserve. We are making generational investments in health care, and making sure those investments improve mental health care services. This includes improving Indigenous Peoples’ access to distinctions-based and culturally appropriate mental health services. Last year, we improved access to suicide prevention supports by launching the 9-8-8 Suicide Crisis Helpline – available to Canadians wherever and whenever it’s needed.

    “There’s a lot more work to be done to break the stigma. Let’s create environments that support open conversations about mental health. Today, take some time to check in on loved ones, neighbours, and colleagues. Take care of yourselves. It’s okay not to feel okay. And it’s okay to speak to someone and get care. By coming together, we can break down the stigma, help others feel supported, and build a healthier, more compassionate society for everyone.”

    If you or someone you know is thinking about suicide, call or text 9-8-8. Support is available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. For mental health and wellness information and key links to services and supports, please go to Canada.ca/mental-health.

    The Hope for Wellness Helpline provides immediate, toll-free telephone and online-chat-based support and crisis intervention to all Indigenous people in Canada. This service is available 24/7 in English and French, and upon request in Cree, Ojibway, and Inuktitut. Experienced and culturally competent counsellors are available by phone at 1-855-242-3310 or by online chat at hopeforwellness.ca.

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Deputy Secretary-General’s remarks at the Opening of the Preparatory Meeting of the 29th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Pre-Cop29) [as prepared for delivery]

    Source: United Nations secretary general

    Excellencies,
    Dear Colleagues,

    It is a pleasure to join you today at PreCop, and I thank the Government of Azerbeijan for hosting us.

    I appreciate the constructive engagement and leadership of the troika.

    I welcome all the hard work done so far, including yesterday, which sends helpful signals for agreement at COP29 on the NCQG.

    However, as the UN Secretary-General has said, we are at a moment of truth in our fight against the climate crisis.

    We are minutes to midnight in our efforts to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5-degree Celsius. 

    We are witnessing the consequences of inaction in real time.

    As we meet, the west coast of Florida is reeling from the catastrophic impacts of hurricane Milton.   

    Extreme weather is devastating lives and livelihoods around the world, with those who contributed the least paying the highest price.

    But there is hope and we are moving in the right direction.

    At the signing of the Paris Agreement, the world was heading towards four degrees Celsius of warming.

    By Dubai we were headed for somewhere between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees based on the UNFCCC’s synthesis report. 

    Last year at COP 28, you all committed to make 1.5C a reality in your next generation of NDCs and you acknowledged that the transition away from fossil fuels must accelerate in this critical decade.

    And at last month’s Summit of the Future, world leaders from the Global North and South came together to agree on steps to begin reforming our international financial architecture:

    Raising the voice and representation of developing countries in our International Financial Institutions to build trust and legitimacy.

    Scaling up development finance to unlock the scale of resources required to meet today’s vast financing gaps.
     
    Overhauling the debt architecture to free up fiscal space and give countries the confidence to invest boldly in their economies.

    And creating a stronger global financial safety net to protect economies when crises strike. 

    COP29 must build on this momentum – and translate the ambitions and commitments in the Global Stocktake into real-world, real-economy outcomes.

    In November, you must agree on an ambitious new climate finance goal that meets the scale of the challenge faced by developing countries.

    Success is an imperative if we are to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius a reality.  

     Excellencies, we can only meet the goals of the Paris Agreement if every country has the means to accelerate climate mitigation and adaptation action.
     
    The New Collective Quantified Goal – or NCQG – is an opportunity to reimagine your economies, climate finance, restore trust, build solidarity, and catalyze ambition.

    It must help address the well-known challenges faced by developing countries: high cost of capital, high levels of indebtedness, and insufficient risk-bearing and affordable capital.

    It must send the right political and policy signals to markets and investors: building confidence in the direction of travel.

    And it must drive further progress in reforming the international financial architecture and implementing innovative sources of finance.

    Yesterday’s High-level Ministerial Dialogue on the NQCG provided important direction and momentum to this process.

    I heard from you a willingness to find common ground on outstanding elements, building on our shared ambition to keep 1.5 within reach and secure a climate resilient future.

    There was also a clear recognition on the importance of the NQCG as an enabler of ambition and action.

    Positions are well known. Now is the time to work together to find agreement.

    We must also secure agreement on Article 6, with an outcome from COP29 that is effective, fair, and ready for implementation.

    We need high integrity carbon markets that are credible and with rules consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.  

    Baku must be an enabling COP.

    It marks the beginning of the deadline for the next generation of Nationally Determined Contributions – or NDCs.

    These must be economy-wide and aligned with the 1.5-degree limit, covering all sectors and all greenhouse gases.

    They must also show how each country intends to transition away from fossil fuels, in line with the COP28 outcome.

    This is a chance for countries to align energy strategies and development priorities with climate ambition.

    And the G20, who have the greatest capacity and responsibility, must demonstrate to the rest of the world what good looks like – on ambition, quality, and process.

    Dear Colleagues,

    If COP29 is to deliver the concrete outcomes urgently needed, your work here is absolutely vital.

    We need success to be in reach when decision-makers arrive here in Baku next month. 

    Right now, the greatest threat to global ambition is lack of political will to act.

    In today’s fraught and divided world, we must redouble our collective efforts to keep 1.5 within reach and protect those on the frontlines of the climate crisis.

    And we must ensure justice and equity so that no country is left behind in the race to net zero.

    The UN is here to support you every step of the way, as convenors and custodians of this process.

    So, I urge you to keep a laser focus on the concrete outcomes needed this year.

    And to keep a spirit of compromise and global solidarity at the fore, especially in the harder moments ahead.

    I thank you for your crucial service and for your dedication, to people and planet. 
     

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Kuwait: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission

    Source: International Monetary Fund

    October 10, 2024

    A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

    The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

    Washington, DC: Kuwait has a window of opportunity to implement needed fiscal and structural reforms to boost private sector-led inclusive growth and diversify its economy away from oil:

    • Gradual fiscal consolidation of about 12 percent of GDP is needed to reinforce intergenerational equity.
    • Structural reforms should focus on improving the business environment, attracting FDI, and unifying the labor market.
    • These reforms should be underpinned by continued prudent monetary and financial sector policies.
    • Economic statistics should be strengthened to support well-informed policymaking.

    Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks

    1. Kuwait has a window of opportunity to implement needed fiscal and structural reforms. Political turmoil has gripped Kuwait in recent years, stalling reforms. The political gridlock was broken in May 2024, when H.H. the Amir Sheikh Meshaal al‑Ahmad al‑Jaber al‑Sabah dissolved the Parliament and suspended parts of the Constitution for up to 4 years, allowing reforms to be expedited.
    2. The economic recovery was disrupted in 2023, and inflation is moderating. Real GDP contracted by 3.6 percent in 2023. This economic downturn was concentrated in the oil sector, which contracted by 4.3 percent in 2023 due to an OPEC+ oil production cut. In addition, the non-oil sector is estimated to have contracted by 1.0 percent in 2023, primarily reflecting lower manufacturing activity in oil refining. Headline CPI inflation declined to 3.6 percent in 2023 reflecting lower core and food inflation. More recently, headline inflation moderated further to 2.9 percent (y-o-y) in August 2024, given lower housing and transport inflation.
    3. The external position remained strong in 2023. The current account surplus moderated to 31.4 percent of GDP in 2023, with a 10.3 percent of GDP reduction in the trade surplus from lower oil prices and production largely offset by a 7.4 percent of GDP increase in the income surplus. Official reserve assets amounted to a comfortable 9.0 months of projected imports at end-2023. However, the external position was substantially weaker than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies in 2023, partly reflecting inadequate public saving of oil revenue.
    4. The fiscal balance weakened in FY2023/24. The fiscal balance of the budgetary central government swung from a surplus of 11.7 percent of GDP in FY2022/23 to a deficit of 3.1 percent of GDP in FY2023/24. This mainly reflected a 5.8 percent of GDP reduction in oil revenue given lower oil prices and production, and a 9.7 percent of GDP increase in current spending, of which 5.7 percent of GDP went to the public sector wage bill while 3.4 percent of GDP went to subsidies. Nonetheless, the fiscal balance of the general government (which includes the income from SWF investments) was an estimated 26.0 percent of GDP in FY2023/24.
    5. Financial stability has been maintained. Banks have sustained strong capital and liquidity buffers to satisfy the CBK’s prudent regulatory requirements, while NPLs remain low given judicious lending practices and are well provisioned for.
    6. Under the baseline assuming current policies, the economy is projected to remain in recession in 2024, then to recover over the medium term:
    • Real GDP will contract by a further 3.2 percent in 2024 due to an additional OPEC+ oil production cut, then will expand by 2.8 percent in 2025 as the cuts get unwound, and will grow broadly in line with potential thereafter.
    • The incipient recovery of the non-oil sector will continue in 2024, with non-oil GDP expanding by 1.3 percent despite fiscal consolidation, after which it will gradually converge to its potential of 2.5 percent.
    • Headline CPI inflation will continue to moderate to 3.0 percent in 2024 as excess demand pressure dissipates and imported food prices fall, then will gradually converge to 2.0 percent as the non-oil output gap closes.
    • The current account surplus will moderate further to 28.4 percent of GDP in 2024 as lower oil prices and production reduce the trade surplus, then will gradually decline over the medium term alongside oil prices.
    • The fiscal deficit of the budgetary central government will increase to 5.1 percent of GDP in FY2024/25 as lower oil revenue more than offsets expenditure rationalization, then will steadily rise by about 1 percent of GDP per year over the medium term under current policies.
    1. The risks surrounding these baseline economic projections are skewed to the downside. The economy is highly exposed to a variety of global risks through its oil dependence, in particular to commodity price volatility, a global growth slowdown or acceleration, and the further intensification of regional conflicts. The materialization of these risks would be transmitted to Kuwait mainly via their impacts on oil prices and production. Domestic risks are primarily associated with the implementation of fiscal and structural reforms, which could get further delayed or accelerated. These reforms are needed to diversify the economy away from oil, which would enhance its resilience and stimulate private investment.

    Economic Reforms—Transitioning to a Dynamic and Diversified Economy

    1. The authorities aspire to implement reforms to support the transition to a dynamic and diversified economy. To achieve this goal, a well-sequenced package of fiscal and structural reforms is needed. Structural reforms to improve the business environment and attract foreign investment are needed to boost private sector-led inclusive growth. Meanwhile, fiscal reforms should be implemented to reinforce intergenerational equity while incentivizing Kuwaitis to pursue newly created job opportunities in the private sector, in particular gradual fiscal consolidation.

    Fiscal Policy—Reinforcing Intergenerational Equity

    1. The contractionary stance of fiscal policy is appropriate. Fiscal policy was strongly procyclical in FY2023/24, with a fiscal expansion of 6.9 percent of non-oil GDP contributing to excess demand pressure. Under the FY2024/25 Budget, the non-oil fiscal balance of the budgetary central government should increase by 4.7 percent of non-oil GDP relative to FY2023/24. This large fiscal consolidation will help close the non-oil output gap while reinforcing intergenerational equity. It is mainly driven by current expenditure rationalization, concentrated in planned subsidy cuts worth 4.3 percent of non-oil GDP.
    2. Substantial further fiscal consolidation is needed to ensure intergenerational equity. Under the baseline, the projected fiscal balance of the general government is far below the level needed to maintain the living standards of Kuwaitis for generations to come. A prudent approach calls for gradual fiscal consolidation of about 12 percent of GDP to reinforce intergenerational equity, alongside structural reforms to diversify the economy away from oil. These reforms would also reinforce external sustainability.
    3. Expenditure and tax policy reforms would be needed to support the transition to a dynamic and diversified economy:
    • Fiscal consolidation should be implemented at a pace of 1 to 2 percent of GDP per year until the PIH fiscal balance target is achieved. This would offset or reverse the projected roughly 1 percent of GDP per year increase in the fiscal deficit of the budgetary central government over the medium term, without reducing growth much.
    • Compensation of government employees surged over the past decade, to the top of the GCC. A public sector wage setting mechanism should be introduced to gradually reduce the 41 percent premium over the private sector, while a hiring cap should be used to steadily lower the public sector employment share, both towards high-income country levels.
    • Hydrocarbon consumption subsidies are the highest in the GCC. They should be phased out by gradually raising retail fuel and electricity prices to their cost-recovery levels while providing targeted transfers to vulnerable groups.
    • On-budget public investment plummeted over the past decade, to near the bottom of the GCC. It should be raised to build up the quantity and quality of infrastructure towards high-income country levels.
    • The hydrocarbon share of government revenue remains the highest in the GCC. In the context of the global minimum corporate tax agreement, the government’s plan to extend the CIT to all large domestic companies is welcome. To boost non-oil revenue mobilization, Kuwait should introduce the GCC-wide VAT and excise tax.
    1. The conduct of fiscal policy should be strengthened with Public Financial Management reforms. To align budget planning and execution with fiscal policy objectives, the Ministry of Finance should introduce a medium-term fiscal framework—including a fiscal rules framework with a public debt ceiling and non-oil fiscal balance target—underpinned by a medium-term macroeconomic framework. To inform fiscal policymaking and assess reform proposals, the capacity of the Macro-Fiscal Unit should be strengthened. To facilitate orderly fiscal financing, the Liquidity and Financing Law should be enacted expeditiously.

    Monetary and Financial Sector Policies—Maintaining Macrofinancial Stability

    1. The exchange rate peg to an undisclosed basket of currencies remains an appropriate nominal anchor for monetary policy. It has supported low and stable inflation for many years. Sustaining this successful monetary policy track record requires preserving the independence of the CBK. The monetary transmission mechanism should be strengthened by deepening the interbank and domestic sovereign debt markets, establishing an efficient capital market, and phasing out interest rate caps.
    2. The restrictive stance of monetary policy is appropriate. The exchange rate regime gives the CBK relative flexibility to conduct monetary policy. The policy rate is currently in line with controlling inflation and stabilizing non-oil output while supporting the exchange rate peg, and is above neutral. Under the baseline, monetary normalization is warranted, as inflation further moderates and the non-oil output gap closes.
    3. Systemic risk remains contained and prudently managed. The credit cycle downturn triggered by the pandemic has been gradually unwinding, with the credit gap estimated to be nearly closed. Under the CBK’s latest stress tests, the capitalization and liquidity of the banking system generally exceeded Basel III minimum requirements, while individual bank shortcomings were limited. The stance of macroprudential policy is appropriate given contained systemic risk and subdued credit growth. Given that capital requirements exceed Basel III minimum requirements, the CBK could consider reclassifying part of its country specific capital buffer as a positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer. It should also continue its practice of regularly reviewing the adequacy of its financial regulatory perimeter and macroprudential toolkit. Finally, the CBK should continue its risk-based supervisory approach to assessing banks and effectively addressing any vulnerabilities.
    4. Structural financial sector reforms are needed to enhance financial intermediation efficiency. The unlimited guarantee on bank deposits should be gradually replaced with a limited deposit insurance framework to address moral hazard, while the interest rate caps on loans should be phased out to support efficient risk pricing.

    Structural Reforms—Boosting Private Sector-Led Inclusive Growth

    1. A comprehensive and well-sequenced structural reform package is needed to increase non-oil potential growth. The initial priorities are to improve the business environment by enhancing transparency, raising efficiency, and further opening up the economy. Meanwhile, labor market reforms should be gradually phased in to incentivize private sector-led inclusive growth.
    2. The business environment should be further improved to raise economic competitiveness and promote private investment. To boost transparency, data disclosure on secondary market real estate transactions should be enhanced, while universal auditing standards for corporate balance sheets should be adopted. To raise efficiency, the government should improve public infrastructure, conduct regulatory impact assessments with public consultations, integrate digital public service delivery across ministries, and further streamline business establishment processes. To attract FDI, full foreign ownership of businesses should be permitted, while foreign ownership restrictions on land should be relaxed. Finally, public land sales for residential and commercial development should be scaled up.
    3. Major labor market reforms are needed to promote economic diversification. To incentivize Kuwaitis to seek employment in the private sector, compensation and working conditions should be better harmonized across the public and private sectors. Enhancing the quality of education and aligning it with private sector needs would raise productivity and support economic diversification. Employment of highly-skilled expatriate workers should be supported by introducing targeted visa programs and reforming job sponsorship frameworks, promoting knowledge transfer. Higher female labor force participation should be encouraged by further improving the working environment for women, including by fully implementing the legal requirements for childcare in the private sector.
    4. Reforms are needed to strengthen AML/CFT effectiveness. The AML/CFT framework should be strengthened expeditiously following a risk-based approach to protect its effectiveness.
    5. Progress with climate change adaptation and mitigation should be accelerated. The government has made progress with implementing the 2019 National Adaptation Plan, but is delayed in developing its mitigation plan.
    6. Data provision has some shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance, which the authorities should address within their legal constraints. An expenditure-side National Accounts decomposition remains unavailable for 2023, while multi-year delays in the publication of GDP data after the pandemic confounded surveillance and policymaking. The CSB urgently needs additional funding to boost its capacity and resume its annual Establishment Survey, which has not been conducted since 2019. The exclusion of government investment income and SOE profit transfers from the Government Finance statistics hampers fiscal policy analysis, while the omission of government foreign assets from the IIP statistics generates stock-flow inconsistencies with the BOP statistics.

    The mission thanks the authorities for their warm hospitality and constructive engagement.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Angham Al Shami

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Kuwait: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    October 10, 2024

    A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

    The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

    Washington, DC: Kuwait has a window of opportunity to implement needed fiscal and structural reforms to boost private sector-led inclusive growth and diversify its economy away from oil:

    • Gradual fiscal consolidation of about 12 percent of GDP is needed to reinforce intergenerational equity.
    • Structural reforms should focus on improving the business environment, attracting FDI, and unifying the labor market.
    • These reforms should be underpinned by continued prudent monetary and financial sector policies.
    • Economic statistics should be strengthened to support well-informed policymaking.

    Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks

    1. Kuwait has a window of opportunity to implement needed fiscal and structural reforms. Political turmoil has gripped Kuwait in recent years, stalling reforms. The political gridlock was broken in May 2024, when H.H. the Amir Sheikh Meshaal al‑Ahmad al‑Jaber al‑Sabah dissolved the Parliament and suspended parts of the Constitution for up to 4 years, allowing reforms to be expedited.
    2. The economic recovery was disrupted in 2023, and inflation is moderating. Real GDP contracted by 3.6 percent in 2023. This economic downturn was concentrated in the oil sector, which contracted by 4.3 percent in 2023 due to an OPEC+ oil production cut. In addition, the non-oil sector is estimated to have contracted by 1.0 percent in 2023, primarily reflecting lower manufacturing activity in oil refining. Headline CPI inflation declined to 3.6 percent in 2023 reflecting lower core and food inflation. More recently, headline inflation moderated further to 2.9 percent (y-o-y) in August 2024, given lower housing and transport inflation.
    3. The external position remained strong in 2023. The current account surplus moderated to 31.4 percent of GDP in 2023, with a 10.3 percent of GDP reduction in the trade surplus from lower oil prices and production largely offset by a 7.4 percent of GDP increase in the income surplus. Official reserve assets amounted to a comfortable 9.0 months of projected imports at end-2023. However, the external position was substantially weaker than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies in 2023, partly reflecting inadequate public saving of oil revenue.
    4. The fiscal balance weakened in FY2023/24. The fiscal balance of the budgetary central government swung from a surplus of 11.7 percent of GDP in FY2022/23 to a deficit of 3.1 percent of GDP in FY2023/24. This mainly reflected a 5.8 percent of GDP reduction in oil revenue given lower oil prices and production, and a 9.7 percent of GDP increase in current spending, of which 5.7 percent of GDP went to the public sector wage bill while 3.4 percent of GDP went to subsidies. Nonetheless, the fiscal balance of the general government (which includes the income from SWF investments) was an estimated 26.0 percent of GDP in FY2023/24.
    5. Financial stability has been maintained. Banks have sustained strong capital and liquidity buffers to satisfy the CBK’s prudent regulatory requirements, while NPLs remain low given judicious lending practices and are well provisioned for.
    6. Under the baseline assuming current policies, the economy is projected to remain in recession in 2024, then to recover over the medium term:
    • Real GDP will contract by a further 3.2 percent in 2024 due to an additional OPEC+ oil production cut, then will expand by 2.8 percent in 2025 as the cuts get unwound, and will grow broadly in line with potential thereafter.
    • The incipient recovery of the non-oil sector will continue in 2024, with non-oil GDP expanding by 1.3 percent despite fiscal consolidation, after which it will gradually converge to its potential of 2.5 percent.
    • Headline CPI inflation will continue to moderate to 3.0 percent in 2024 as excess demand pressure dissipates and imported food prices fall, then will gradually converge to 2.0 percent as the non-oil output gap closes.
    • The current account surplus will moderate further to 28.4 percent of GDP in 2024 as lower oil prices and production reduce the trade surplus, then will gradually decline over the medium term alongside oil prices.
    • The fiscal deficit of the budgetary central government will increase to 5.1 percent of GDP in FY2024/25 as lower oil revenue more than offsets expenditure rationalization, then will steadily rise by about 1 percent of GDP per year over the medium term under current policies.
    1. The risks surrounding these baseline economic projections are skewed to the downside. The economy is highly exposed to a variety of global risks through its oil dependence, in particular to commodity price volatility, a global growth slowdown or acceleration, and the further intensification of regional conflicts. The materialization of these risks would be transmitted to Kuwait mainly via their impacts on oil prices and production. Domestic risks are primarily associated with the implementation of fiscal and structural reforms, which could get further delayed or accelerated. These reforms are needed to diversify the economy away from oil, which would enhance its resilience and stimulate private investment.

    Economic Reforms—Transitioning to a Dynamic and Diversified Economy

    1. The authorities aspire to implement reforms to support the transition to a dynamic and diversified economy. To achieve this goal, a well-sequenced package of fiscal and structural reforms is needed. Structural reforms to improve the business environment and attract foreign investment are needed to boost private sector-led inclusive growth. Meanwhile, fiscal reforms should be implemented to reinforce intergenerational equity while incentivizing Kuwaitis to pursue newly created job opportunities in the private sector, in particular gradual fiscal consolidation.

    Fiscal Policy—Reinforcing Intergenerational Equity

    1. The contractionary stance of fiscal policy is appropriate. Fiscal policy was strongly procyclical in FY2023/24, with a fiscal expansion of 6.9 percent of non-oil GDP contributing to excess demand pressure. Under the FY2024/25 Budget, the non-oil fiscal balance of the budgetary central government should increase by 4.7 percent of non-oil GDP relative to FY2023/24. This large fiscal consolidation will help close the non-oil output gap while reinforcing intergenerational equity. It is mainly driven by current expenditure rationalization, concentrated in planned subsidy cuts worth 4.3 percent of non-oil GDP.
    2. Substantial further fiscal consolidation is needed to ensure intergenerational equity. Under the baseline, the projected fiscal balance of the general government is far below the level needed to maintain the living standards of Kuwaitis for generations to come. A prudent approach calls for gradual fiscal consolidation of about 12 percent of GDP to reinforce intergenerational equity, alongside structural reforms to diversify the economy away from oil. These reforms would also reinforce external sustainability.
    3. Expenditure and tax policy reforms would be needed to support the transition to a dynamic and diversified economy:
    • Fiscal consolidation should be implemented at a pace of 1 to 2 percent of GDP per year until the PIH fiscal balance target is achieved. This would offset or reverse the projected roughly 1 percent of GDP per year increase in the fiscal deficit of the budgetary central government over the medium term, without reducing growth much.
    • Compensation of government employees surged over the past decade, to the top of the GCC. A public sector wage setting mechanism should be introduced to gradually reduce the 41 percent premium over the private sector, while a hiring cap should be used to steadily lower the public sector employment share, both towards high-income country levels.
    • Hydrocarbon consumption subsidies are the highest in the GCC. They should be phased out by gradually raising retail fuel and electricity prices to their cost-recovery levels while providing targeted transfers to vulnerable groups.
    • On-budget public investment plummeted over the past decade, to near the bottom of the GCC. It should be raised to build up the quantity and quality of infrastructure towards high-income country levels.
    • The hydrocarbon share of government revenue remains the highest in the GCC. In the context of the global minimum corporate tax agreement, the government’s plan to extend the CIT to all large domestic companies is welcome. To boost non-oil revenue mobilization, Kuwait should introduce the GCC-wide VAT and excise tax.
    1. The conduct of fiscal policy should be strengthened with Public Financial Management reforms. To align budget planning and execution with fiscal policy objectives, the Ministry of Finance should introduce a medium-term fiscal framework—including a fiscal rules framework with a public debt ceiling and non-oil fiscal balance target—underpinned by a medium-term macroeconomic framework. To inform fiscal policymaking and assess reform proposals, the capacity of the Macro-Fiscal Unit should be strengthened. To facilitate orderly fiscal financing, the Liquidity and Financing Law should be enacted expeditiously.

    Monetary and Financial Sector Policies—Maintaining Macrofinancial Stability

    1. The exchange rate peg to an undisclosed basket of currencies remains an appropriate nominal anchor for monetary policy. It has supported low and stable inflation for many years. Sustaining this successful monetary policy track record requires preserving the independence of the CBK. The monetary transmission mechanism should be strengthened by deepening the interbank and domestic sovereign debt markets, establishing an efficient capital market, and phasing out interest rate caps.
    2. The restrictive stance of monetary policy is appropriate. The exchange rate regime gives the CBK relative flexibility to conduct monetary policy. The policy rate is currently in line with controlling inflation and stabilizing non-oil output while supporting the exchange rate peg, and is above neutral. Under the baseline, monetary normalization is warranted, as inflation further moderates and the non-oil output gap closes.
    3. Systemic risk remains contained and prudently managed. The credit cycle downturn triggered by the pandemic has been gradually unwinding, with the credit gap estimated to be nearly closed. Under the CBK’s latest stress tests, the capitalization and liquidity of the banking system generally exceeded Basel III minimum requirements, while individual bank shortcomings were limited. The stance of macroprudential policy is appropriate given contained systemic risk and subdued credit growth. Given that capital requirements exceed Basel III minimum requirements, the CBK could consider reclassifying part of its country specific capital buffer as a positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer. It should also continue its practice of regularly reviewing the adequacy of its financial regulatory perimeter and macroprudential toolkit. Finally, the CBK should continue its risk-based supervisory approach to assessing banks and effectively addressing any vulnerabilities.
    4. Structural financial sector reforms are needed to enhance financial intermediation efficiency. The unlimited guarantee on bank deposits should be gradually replaced with a limited deposit insurance framework to address moral hazard, while the interest rate caps on loans should be phased out to support efficient risk pricing.

    Structural Reforms—Boosting Private Sector-Led Inclusive Growth

    1. A comprehensive and well-sequenced structural reform package is needed to increase non-oil potential growth. The initial priorities are to improve the business environment by enhancing transparency, raising efficiency, and further opening up the economy. Meanwhile, labor market reforms should be gradually phased in to incentivize private sector-led inclusive growth.
    2. The business environment should be further improved to raise economic competitiveness and promote private investment. To boost transparency, data disclosure on secondary market real estate transactions should be enhanced, while universal auditing standards for corporate balance sheets should be adopted. To raise efficiency, the government should improve public infrastructure, conduct regulatory impact assessments with public consultations, integrate digital public service delivery across ministries, and further streamline business establishment processes. To attract FDI, full foreign ownership of businesses should be permitted, while foreign ownership restrictions on land should be relaxed. Finally, public land sales for residential and commercial development should be scaled up.
    3. Major labor market reforms are needed to promote economic diversification. To incentivize Kuwaitis to seek employment in the private sector, compensation and working conditions should be better harmonized across the public and private sectors. Enhancing the quality of education and aligning it with private sector needs would raise productivity and support economic diversification. Employment of highly-skilled expatriate workers should be supported by introducing targeted visa programs and reforming job sponsorship frameworks, promoting knowledge transfer. Higher female labor force participation should be encouraged by further improving the working environment for women, including by fully implementing the legal requirements for childcare in the private sector.
    4. Reforms are needed to strengthen AML/CFT effectiveness. The AML/CFT framework should be strengthened expeditiously following a risk-based approach to protect its effectiveness.
    5. Progress with climate change adaptation and mitigation should be accelerated. The government has made progress with implementing the 2019 National Adaptation Plan, but is delayed in developing its mitigation plan.
    6. Data provision has some shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance, which the authorities should address within their legal constraints. An expenditure-side National Accounts decomposition remains unavailable for 2023, while multi-year delays in the publication of GDP data after the pandemic confounded surveillance and policymaking. The CSB urgently needs additional funding to boost its capacity and resume its annual Establishment Survey, which has not been conducted since 2019. The exclusion of government investment income and SOE profit transfers from the Government Finance statistics hampers fiscal policy analysis, while the omission of government foreign assets from the IIP statistics generates stock-flow inconsistencies with the BOP statistics.

    The mission thanks the authorities for their warm hospitality and constructive engagement.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Angham Al Shami

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/10/10/mcs-101024-kuwait-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2024-aiv-mission

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Non-executive chair reappointment at GAD

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    The Government Actuary’s Department announces the reappointment of Les Philpott as non-executive GAD Board chair.

    Credit: Shutterstock

    Les is an experienced Chair and non-executive director, having held a diverse range of non-executive roles across the public, private and charity sectors.

    He has a background in public management at senior executive levels. He formerly held the role of Chief Executive at the Office for Nuclear Regulation and previously held senior leadership positions in the Health and Safety Executive.

    Commenting on the reappointment Fiona Dunsire, the Government Actuary, said: “With his business understanding and non-executive director experience at chair level, Les has been an insightful and inspirational presence as the Chair of the GAD Board.

    “I look forward to working further with him during his second term as we continue to develop the range of work GAD supports across government.”

    Les also commented and said: “I am delighted to have been reappointed to this role and proud to continue to support the work of such talented, committed people throughout GAD as its Board Chair, particularly in taking forward our new business strategy.”

    Notes:

    Les will continue to lead GAD’s Board as the Non-Executive Chair, for a further 3 years, ending in September 2027.

    This reappointment has been made in accordance with the principles outlined in the Governance Code on Public Appointments.

    All appointments to GAD are made on merit.

    He confirmed that he has not undertaken any political activity within the previous 5 years.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Sir John Armitt appointment as Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission extended

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer has extended the appointment of Sir John Armitt as the Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission.

    Sir John Armitt’s appointment as Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) has been extended for six months to support the development of the ten-year strategy and the creation of National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority. 

    Sir John has served as Chair of the NIC since 2018, before which he was Deputy Chair and a commissioner since the NIC was established in 2015. Sir John was reappointed as Chair in January 2023 for a further two years. Sir John’s current appointment is due to end on 18 January 2025, when he will have served ten years at the NIC. However, due to the need for strong leadership and continuity at the NIC during this period of transition, Ministers have agreed to extend Sir John’s appointment for a further six months to support the NIC during this time. 

    Sir John’s appointment will now end on 18 July 2025. 

    About the Appointment Process

    Sir John Armitt’s appointment has been extended for a further six months following the provisions of his original appointment, having met required performance standards and with the agreement of ministers. The chair role is a non-executive part-time position. 

    Sir John has confirmed that he has not undertaken any political activity within the previous five years including donating to, or canvassing on behalf of, any political party.

    Updates to this page

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: UN Human Rights Council 57: Introductory Statement on Syria

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments 3

    Introductory Statement on Syria. Delivered by the UK’s Permanent Representative to the WTO and UN, Simon Manley.

    Location:
    Geneva
    Delivered on:
    (Transcript of the speech, exactly as it was delivered)

    Thank you Mr President,

    I have the honour to present draft resolution L.11 on the human rights situation in the Syrian Arab Republic, on behalf of: France, Germany, the Netherlands, Qatar, Türkiye, the United States of America, and the United Kingdom.

    Mr President,

    When he briefed this Council last month, the Chair of the Commission of Inquiry, Paulo Pinheiro described Syria, as a “quagmire of despair”. A fitting, yet tragic, depiction of the depth of human suffering Syrians continue to endure at the hands of Assad and his allies.

    Once again, the Commission’s report documents violence against civilians; arbitrary arrests; and detentions under the most horrific conditions where torture and sexual and gender-based violence are rife.

    Families receive no information or are misinformed about the fate and whereabouts of their loved ones following their detention. There is simply no end to the cruelty that the regime is apparently willing to inflict on those that it is meant to protect.

    The draft resolution highlights violations and abuses against a generation of children in Syria, who have known nothing but a world where violence, fear, hunger and loss are a daily reality.

    A world where at least 2.4 million children are out of school. Where those as young as 11 have endured sexual and gender-based violence in state-run detention facilities. Where children are the innocent victims of indiscriminate attacks on schools, hospitals and civilian areas.

    As we approach International Day of the Girl Child, it is important we note the particular vulnerability of girls in Syria. Throughout this long conflict, girls have been targeted based on their gender, subject to forced marriage, and have taken on increased care-giving responsibilities. It is no wonder that of those out of education, girls are disproportionately affected.

    Mr President,

    The resolution we present today condemns such violations and abuses and calls for them to stop.

    It demands that attacks on schools, healthcare and medical facilities cease. And it implores all parties to maintain unhindered, safe and sustainable humanitarian access to those in need.

    Importantly, the resolution acknowledges that Syria’s future depends on the ability of generations to come to engage meaningfully in a political solution to the conflict.

    I thank all those who have engaged constructively in the negotiation process. 

    If a vote is called on this resolution, I urge members of the Council to vote in favour of it.

    Commissioner Pinheiro made clear that Syrians continue to look to this house for hope, for help. We cannot, should not, will not, abandon them.

    Thank you.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Update on imminent changes to IPP licence termination process

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Information on the new processes for licence terminations for those serving Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) or Detention for Public Protection (DPP) sentence

    The Parole Board is currently updating information on IPP licence terminations to reflect the relevant provisions within the Victims and Prisoners Act 2024 that will come into force shortly. Revised guidance for Parole Board members will be published in the near future.

    Anyone serving an IPP or DPP sentence, or family and friends of someone serving an IPP or DPP sentence requiring independent advice is recommended to call the Howard League for Penal Reform hotline: 01209 701 888.  More information can be read here: IPP Licence Termination Hotline

    Further guidance can be found in the licence termination legal guide below, produced jointly by the Howard League for Penal Reform, the Prison Reform Trust and Prisoners’ Advice Service.

    Termination of IPP licence legal guide

    PDF, 787 KB, 20 pages

    This file may not be suitable for users of assistive technology.

    Request an accessible format.
    If you use assistive technology (such as a screen reader) and need a version of this document in a more accessible format, please email info@paroleboard.gov.uk. Please tell us what format you need. It will help us if you say what assistive technology you use.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Nearly 400 people already jailed following summer’s violent disorder

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Hundreds of people who took part in violent disorder during the summer have already been jailed.

    Hundreds of people who took part in violent disorder during the summer have already been jailed, data published today reveals.

    The rapid action taken across the justice system by police, prosecutors and those working in courts has meant that 388 people have been jailed to date – nearly half (47.5%) of all those who have appeared in court so far.

    In total, over 800 people who took part in violent thuggery have now had an initial court hearing as part of a collective effort across criminal justice agencies to keep communities safe and free from further violence and punish those who took part in the mindless disorder. Of these, almost 500 cases have been completed.

    The data released today shows that between 30 July and 3 October:

    • 819 defendants have been received by the courts in connection with the public disorder
    • 817 have already had their first hearing
    • 477 have been sentenced
    • 388 people have been sent to immediate custody
    • 324 cases are still in progress

    Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, said:  

    The mindless minority who took part in the disgraceful scenes we witnessed this summer were warned they would feel the full force of the law. This data shows that many have already seen the inside of a prison cell and many more face the prospect in future.

    I would like to pay tribute to the dedicated professionals across the criminal justice system who have worked tirelessly to deliver swift justice.

    Further information

    The statistics can be found here at Management information on magistrates’ court activity.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Thousands of pupils receive support to boost school attendance

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Government makes significant expansion to size of attendance mentoring to get thousands more persistently absent pupils back in school

    Thousands more pupils will benefit from the support of a specialist attendance mentor as the government ramps up work to tackle the epidemic of school absence. 

    Persistent absence across the country has increased since the pandemic, with around one in five pupils across the country currently missing 10% or more of school.

    Backed by £15 million, the government will expand the investment and reach of attendance mentoring to reach 10,000 more children and cover an additional 10 areas with some of the worst attendance rates across the country. Nottingham, Ipswich and Blackpool are among the new areas that will benefit from the expansion.

    The original programme, which has been running since 2022 in five pilot areas, sees attendance mentors provide one to one support to persistently absent pupils including those with SEND or mental ill health to break down the barriers to attendance, getting them back in the classroom, learning and thriving.

    The new mentoring programme builds on the government’s plan to deliver free breakfast clubs in every primary school, with delivery starting in up to 750 schools from as early as April 2025. This is one of many programmes that will make sure children start the day ready to learn to ensure they leave school with the best life chances.

    Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson said:

    Tackling the national epidemic of school absence is non-negotiable if we are to break down the barriers to opportunity so many young people face.

    For too long persistent absence has held back young people across the country and denied them the life chances that they deserve: this government is gripping this generational challenge facing our schools.

    This significant new investment will help thousands of children back into the classroom and marks an important step towards truly turning the tide on persistent absence, helping us drive high and rising standards in every school.

    Pupils on the programme will be supported over a 12 to 20 week period and will have a specific plan to help them, developed by the mentor.

    This might include helping pupils to manage anxious feelings, developing their confidence and self-esteem, establishing more consistent routines at home and supporting pupils to access support from wider services.

    The programme will be run by delivery partners, Etio, a specialist consultancy that is already running a number of successful education projects in England, including the National Centre for Excellence in the Teaching of Mathematics.

    UK Managing Director at Etio, Dr. Gordon Carver said:

    Etio has been awarded the Attendance Mentoring Pilot Expansion (AMPE) project by the DfE, which aims to improve attendance and produce a robust evidence base for what works. The project is expected to yield important sector insights for tackling one of the most pressing issues in education. Headed up by Etio Project Director, Laura Bell, and a brilliant team behind her, we are keen to begin this important work. 

    The pilot programme has already successfully supported pupils with a wide range of challenges including low-level anxiety, special educational needs, poor attitude to learning and complex family circumstances. The pilot evaluation showed improvements in individual pupils’ attendance, wellbeing, home routines, and engagement at school.

    To make sure the new contract also provides the opportunity to build a more robust evidence base around what works, the department has appointed the Youth Endowment Fund (YEF) to oversee a full external evaluation of the programme.

    Children’s Commissioner, Dame Rachel de Souza said:

    As Children’s Commissioner, children tell me all the time that they want to be in school, so this investment is a welcome step in addressing some of the barriers to attendance. These barriers are varied and complex: unmet mental health or SEND needs, family commitments such as being a young carer, or a disengagement from school that needs special care to resolve. 

    I remain deeply concerned by the rate of severe and persistent absences, which have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. Attendance mentors can be an important part of the solution, by being a trusted person working closely with children and their families. 

    I have seen through my role as Chair of Greater Manchester Local Attendance Action Alliance how shared objectives, learning from what works and focusing on meeting every child’s needs means we can see real progress. Attendance must be a shared and top priority. Only when we ensure every child can engage with education, will we truly break down the barriers to opportunity. 

    The programme builds on the government’s statutory Working together to improve school attendance guidance which takes a ‘support first’ approach to managing school absence, by working with children and their families to address their specific barriers to regular school attendance.

    The government is committed to tackling the root causes of absence including by providing access to specialist mental health professionals in every secondary school, introducing free breakfast clubs in every primary and ensuring earlier intervention in mainstream schools for pupils with special needs.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

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  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: GAD supports the setting up of National Energy System Operator

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    We worked closely with the government on a purchase from National Grid to form the publicly owned National Energy System Operator.

    Credit: iStockPhoto

    We worked closely with the government on the purchase from National Grid of the Electricity System Operator to form the publicly owned National Energy System Operator (NESO).

    The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) worked with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). DESNZ decided to set up NESO to drive progress towards net zero while maintaining energy security and minimising costs for consumers.

    Clean power

    The change means Britain’s energy system will be planned by a new publicly owned organisation as part of an overall plan to help deliver clean power by 2030.

    It will help connect new generation projects with the electricity grid, working alongside Great British Energy to deploy renewable energy. NESO launched on 1 October 2024.

    Credit: Shutterstock

    GAD’s expertise

    We worked to time-critical deadlines and provided substantial support around the specialist issue of pensions.

    Support and advice

    Our support for DESNZ involved collaborating with numerous parties inside and outside government, working closely with DESNZ’s legal advisers. We were pleased to receive feedback from DESNZ on our “excellent service, support and advice”.

    Claire King (Head of Implementation at DESNZ for this project) worked with the GAD team and said: “GAD approached this transaction with the utmost professionalism. The team dealt with the many stakeholders as our subject matter experts in pension transfers and managing investment risk. Their experience and enthusiasm helped us to drive the project forward and reach a solution that took account of all parties’ needs.”

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Our online services will be unavailable on 12 and 13 October

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    The VMD’s online services will be unavailable from 6am Saturday 12 October until 8pm Sunday 13 October due to essential site maintenance.

    Most of the VMD’s online services will be unavailable from 6am on Saturday 12 October due to essential site maintenance. We expect that all services will resume by 8pm on Sunday 13 October.

    The services that will be temporarily unavailable are:

    Access to the following Registers is also unavailable:

    We apologise for any inconvenience.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: UK climate finance helps reduce more than 105 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions globally

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    The UK’s International Climate Finance (ICF) has helped 110 million people adapt to the effects of climate change.

    • Reduced or avoided over 105 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, and avoided 750,000 hectares of ecosystem loss, according to official analysis released today.

    • Climate finance has helped to mobilise £8.4 billion of public and £7.8 billion of private finance for climate change.

    The UK’s International Climate Finance (ICF), helps developing countries limit and manage the impacts of climate change, mitigate further global warming from emissions and avert, minimise and address loss and damage.

    The results published today demonstrate the transformational impact of the UK’s International Climate Finance from 2011, ensuring developing countries have access to clean energy and innovative technology to drive the global transition to net zero, while supporting the most vulnerable countries who are experiencing the worst impacts of the climate crisis. Over the last 12 years, the UK has:

    • Supported over 82 million people with improved access to clean energy.
    • Avoided or reduced 105 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to taking all UK cars off the road for approximately 1 year and 7 months.
    • Avoided 750,000 hectares of ecosystem loss, the equivalent to more than 1 million football pitches.

    Through UK International Climate Finance, UK aid is investing in innovative solutions to tackle climate change, such as energy efficiency and forestry across the Global South to demonstrate their commercial viabilities:

    • The Climate Public Partnership (CP3) programme has been addressing the dual challenge of both climate challenge and access to clean, affordable energy by building a public-private partnership to unlock private investments. By investing in private equity funds, including £50 million to the Catalyst Fund, over a portfolio of 124 projects, UK aid successfully mobilised over £86 million of private finance to date.

    • In Madagascar and Indonesia, UK aid is helping to protect, restore and sustainably manage mangrove forests while reducing the poverty of the coastal communities that rely on them. By working together with national governments, local communities and the private sector, the Blue Forests Programme developed green business opportunities based on sustainable mangrove forestry and fisheries management and helped protect around 58,000 hectares of mangrove forests and delivered around 660,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide savings. 

    These results come as the UK has taken swift action at home to tackle the climate crisis and provide energy security for British families and businesses. The UK is first major economy to set a landmark goal in delivering clean power by 2030. In the space of a few months the Government has already:

    • Lifted the ban on onshore wind in England to roll out a new supply of clean and cheap power.
    • Delivered the most successful renewables energy auction to date, securing enough clean power to supply the equivalent of 11 million homes.
    • Introduced Great British Energy, creating the next generation of skilled jobs and protecting family from volatile fossil fuel prices that helped drive the cost of living crisis.
    • Consented unprecedented amounts of nationally significant solar – 2GW – more than the last 14 years combined.

    The UK will use that strong action at home to accelerate global action at the COP29 summit in Baku, raising ambition to agree a new financial target to support developing countries in tackling climate change.

    Minister for International Development, Anneliese Dodds said:

    International climate finance is at the heart of our climate and development objectives and our Mission to be a clean energy superpower.

    Our work – and the billions in private finance it has unlocked – will help the most vulnerable who are experiencing the worst impacts of the climate crisis and enable partners to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. 

    Our programmes are making a positive difference to people’s lives and helping to build a liveable planet for all, now and in the future.

    UK Climate Minister Kerry McCarthy said:

    The UK has played a key role in supporting the most vulnerable communities across the globe in tackling climate change while alleviating poverty and improving access to cleaner energy sources.

    But there is more work to do, and unlocking greater global climate finance is crucial in addressing the needs of developing countries who are on the frontline of the crisis.

    That’s why the UK will be pushing for an ambitious finance goal for climate aid at COP29. We will continue to champion the voices of those most affected and we will lead from the front in speeding up the global transition to net zero.

    UK Minister for Nature Mary Creagh said:

    We have a responsibility to tackle the biggest challenges facing our planet. This means putting nature loss and climate change at the forefront of the global agenda.

    We are seeing an unprecedented decline in species and the loss of some of the world’s richest and most diverse ecosystems. Our climate programmes play a vital role in protecting and restoring nature and supporting the communities most affected by this crisis.

    These results come ahead of this year’s UN climate summit COP29 in Baku, which will see countries come together to negotiate a new financial target for supporting developing countries in their climate actions, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG).

    In addition to UK ICF, the UK’s world leading expertise on green finance and net zero industries is supporting developing countries achieve their own climate goals through leveraging private sector funds. Since 2011, the UK has helped mobile £7.8 billion of private finance for climate change purposes.

    The £11.6 billion commitment for the ICF remains the government’s intention as we undertake the spending review. Speaking at the UN General Assembly on 27 September the Prime Minister made clear the UK would continue to be a leading contributor to international climate finance.

    Background

    • The UK’s International Climate Finance is funded by Official Development Assistance (UK aid) from FCDO, DESNZ and DEFRA.
    • UK International Climate Finance (ICF) is a portfolio of investments with a goal to support international poverty eradication now and in the future, by helping developing countries manage risk and build resilience to the impacts of climate change, take up low-carbon development at scale and manage natural resources sustainably. Through annual publications the ICF sets out results from these investments against a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).
    • To find out more about International Climate Finance
    • UK International Climate Finance results 2024

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: New and updated guidance for pricing and reporting on non-competitive defence contracts

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    The SSRO has published updates to its pricing and reporting guidance, following consultation with stakeholders. We’ve also published our response to what stakeholders told us.

    Pricing guidance

    In January 2024 the SSRO published new pricing guidance to support the implementation of changes to the single source regulatory framework, which came into force on 1 April 2024. We consulted stakeholders between January and April 2024, seeking feedback on the new guidance. Following consideration of consultation responses we have published updated guidance on:

    • Alternative pricing types
    • Allowable Costs
    • The baseline profit rate and its adjustment

    These updated guidance documents provide contracting parties with:

    • Support to use alternative pricing methods for contracts which allows non-competitive defence contracts to be priced in new ways. For example, an item can be priced by reference to competitive markets: simplifying and speeding up procurement.
    • More flexibility and transparency through broadening the ability for a contract to be split into different components or parts, each with its own profit rate and price (known as componentisation). This allows contract prices to better reflect the risk-sharing between the MOD and defence contractors.
    • A rationalisation of how the contract profit rate is calculated, removing two steps from the previous six-step process and simplifying the agreement of contract profit rates.

    To read more about how we have responded to what stakeholders told us during the consultation period, have a look at the consultation response. 

    Reporting guidance

    Alongside the pricing guidance, we have also published our response to the consultation on the updated reporting guidance, which helps contractors submit statutory reports following the legislative changes made on 1 April 2024. The consultation also included minor changes to the compliance methodology.

    We issued the guidance and the proposed change to the compliance methodology in advance of concluding this consultation to give stakeholders time to familiarise themselves as early as possible and to allow their feedback to be based on initial use. Stakeholders were generally supportive of the changes which the SSRO has made.

    Following consideration of consultation responses we have published updated reporting guidance on: 

    • Contract reports. 
    • Supplier reports.
    • DefCARS functionality.

    To read more about how we have responded to what stakeholders told us during the consultation period, have a look at the consultation response. An explanation of the changes made across the three guidance documents are explained in Appendix 1 of the consultation response document. 

    Application of the guidance

    This new and updated pricing and reporting guidance will apply to qualifying defence contracts and qualifying sub-contracts entered into or amended from 10 October 2024.

    To assist stakeholders in understanding the guidance changes, we have included in the consultation response document a table that shows where the previous guidance text has been revised.

    Queries relating to the guidance should be addressed to helpdesk@ssro.gov.uk.

    Updates to this page

    Published 10 October 2024

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  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Iraq: Proposed legal changes could see girls as young as nine forcibly married

    Source: Amnesty International –

    Girls as young as nine could be forcibly married, and protections regarding divorce and inheritance potentially removed

    Urgent legal reforms are needed to protect Iraqi women and girls’ rights and criminalise marital rape

    ‘Iraqi lawmakers must heed the warnings of civil society and women’s rights groups on the devastating impact of these amendments’ – Razaw Salihy

    Ahead of an imminent parliamentary vote in Iraq on possible changes to the country’s Personal Status Law, Amnesty International is calling on Iraqi lawmakers to drop amendments that would violate women and girls’ rights, further entrench discrimination and could allow for girls as young as nine to be forced into marriage.

    The current Personal Status Law applies to all Iraqis irrespective of their religion. The proposed amendments would grant religious councils of the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam in Iraq the authority to develop their own “code of Sharia rulings on personal status matters” within six months of the law being passed, effectively threatening women’s and girls’ rights and their equality before the law.

    The amendments would also open the door to legalising unregistered marriages, which are often used to circumvent child marriage laws, and removing penalties for adult men who enter such marriages and clerics who conduct them. It would also remove critical protections for divorced women, such as the right to remain in the marital home or receive financial support from the former husband.

    Razaw Salihy, Amnesty International’s Iraq researcher, said:

    “Iraqi lawmakers must heed the warnings of civil society and women’s rights groups on the devastating impact of these amendments, which would eliminate the current legal marriage age of 18 for both girls and boys, paving the way for child marriages, as well as stripping women and girls of protections regarding divorce and inheritance. 

    “Not only does child marriage deprive girls of their education, but married girls are more vulnerable to sexual and physical abuse, and health risks related to early pregnancy.

    “It is alarming that these amendments to the Personal Status Law are being pushed so vehemently when completely different, urgent legal reforms are needed to protect Iraqi women and girls’ rights. 

    “Iraq’s parliament must reject these harmful proposed amendments and instead focus their efforts on addressing woeful shortcomings in the penal code, which permits ‘honour’ as a mitigating factor for the killings of women and girls and allows for the corporal punishment of the wife and children by the husband, as well as failing to criminalise marital rape.”  

    Amnesty confirmed that the proposed amendments violate international treaties ratified by Iraq including the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, and the Convention on the Rights of the Child.

    Opposition to the bill

    The first reading of the bill took place on 4 August 2024. Similar amendments were proposed in 2014 and 2017 but failed to pass due to a nationwide outcry. On 3 September, Iraq’s parliament attempted to hold a second reading of the draft bill but opposing MPs had waged a boycott campaign that succeeded in blocking this. The bill’s second reading took place on 16 September, with women MPs and other opponents of the bill raising concerns that none of their recommendations had been taken into account, nor an amended draft shared. On 17 September, the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court ruled that the amendments were aligned with Iraq’s constitution.

    MIL OSI NGO –

  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Lebanon: Israel’s evacuation warnings have been ‘misleading and inadequate’ – new analysis

    Source: Amnesty International –

    Analysis of more than a dozen Israeli evacuation warnings show how Lebanese civilians were given contradictory information and exposed to heightened danger 

    Some warnings issued in middle of night on social media and with only 30 minutes notice 

    Backdrop of comments from Netanyahu and others indicates that Israel considers Lebanese civilians and property to be legitimate targets

    ‘This is not a warning, it’s torture. It’s a sadistic game’ – resident of Burj al-Barajneh

    ‘We’re extremely concerned that Israel may be seeking to replicate the approach it followed in Gaza, resulting in unprecedented civilian harm’ – Agnès Callamard

    The evacuation warnings issued by the Israeli military to residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut and south Lebanon have been inadequate – and in some cases misleading – said Amnesty International.

    Amnesty analysed more than a dozen Israeli military evacuation warnings and conducted interviews with 12 residents who fled various districts in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahieh following the Israeli evacuation warnings on 27-28 September, including al-Laylaki, Hay El Sellom, Hadi Nasrallah highway and Burj al-Barajneh. Amnesty also interviewed three residents of villages in south Lebanon.

    Amnesty examined two warnings issued to residents of the crowded urban areas of Dahieh overnight on 27-28 September, after the attack that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The airstrikes demolished entire residential buildings in the densely-populated area. Each warning identified three military targets and said that residents should evacuate a 500-metre radius around that location. The warnings were issued through the Israeli military’s Arabic spokesperson on X at night, without a clear timeline or details on safe routes. 

    In the two Dahieh warnings, maps published by the Israeli military alongside the evacuation warnings covering six different areas were misleading. In each case the area highlighted on the maps indicating the danger zone for civilians covered a much smaller area than the 500-metre radius that the Israeli military had advised civilians was the minimum distance civilians should evacuate. To be effective, warnings must give clear and timely instructions for civilians on moving away from military objectives that are going to be targeted, with information on safe routes and destinations.

    The Israeli military also issued evacuation warnings to residents of approximately 118 towns and villages in south Lebanon between 1-7 October, following the start of its ground invasion. These warnings, which included towns that were more than 35 km from the border with Israel and outside the UN-declared buffer zone, do not – said Amnesty – make south Lebanon a free-fire zone.  

    Under international humanitarian law, parties to a conflict have a clear obligation to take all feasible precautions to avoid – or at least minimise – harm to civilians when carrying out attacks. This includes giving effective advance warning of attacks to civilians in affected areas unless circumstances do not permit. In any case, emphasised Amnesty, issuing warnings does not absolve Israel of its obligations under international humanitarian law to never target civilians and to take all possible measures to minimise harm to them.

    According to the UN, a quarter of Lebanese territory has been affected by evacuation warnings. 

    Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General, said:

    “The warnings issued by the Israeli military to residents of Dahieh – the densely-populated southern suburbs of Beirut – were inadequate. 

    “Our analysis shows that not only did the warnings issued by the Israeli military include misleading maps, but they were also issued at short notice – in one instance less than 30 minutes before strikes began – in the middle of the night, via social media, when many people would be asleep, offline or not following media reports.

    “Instructing the residents of entire towns and villages in south Lebanon to evacuate is an overly-general warning that is inadequate and raises questions around whether this is intended to create the conditions for mass displacement. 

    “Regardless of the efficacy of the warnings, they do not mean that Israel can treat any remaining civilians as targets. 

    “Having spent the last 12 months investigating Israel’s war crimes in Gaza, we’re extremely concerned that Israel may be seeking to replicate the approach it followed in Gaza, resulting in unprecedented civilian harm.

    “Amnesty International is calling on Israel’s allies, including the United States, to suspend all arms transfers and other forms of military assistance to Israel due to the significant risk that these weapons could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international law. 

    “The organisation is also calling for a suspension of all arms transfers to Hezbollah and other armed groups in Lebanon.”

    Case studies – southern suburbs of Beirut

    Starting at 11:06 pm on 27 September, the Israeli military began to issue evacuation warnings to residents of Dahieh, a suburb in the south of Beirut. In the first warning, the Israeli military instructed residents via X to move 500 metres away from three buildings in the districts of al-Laylaki and al-Hadath, both densely-populated areas, alleging that residents are “located near Hezbollah interests”. The order did not give a timeframe for the evacuation. The map published alongside this warning highlighted an area around the buildings to indicate what was supposedly the 500-metre radius that residents should leave. However, the highlighted area in fact only covered approximately a 135-metre radius. While the map showed 30 buildings within the red circle, there are in fact 500 buildings within the 500-metre radius. The same is true for the evacuation warnings in the al-Hadath district: the areas highlighted on the maps warning residents to stay 500 metres away from the Sheet building and the al-Salam Complex, showed only at approximately 125m and 100m radiuses respectively.

    At around 12:36am, just an hour and a half later, local media reported an Israeli airstrike on al-Laylaki. Over the next hour and 10 minutes, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported 11 further attacks on Dahieh, including on buildings and areas that had not received an evacuation warning. Fatima, a journalist who lives in al-Laylaki, told Amnesty that her brother called her at around 11:15pm while she was covering news of the strike on Nasrallah, warning her to leave the area. She said:

    “I jumped in the car and drove erratically … I arrived in al-Laylaki and found that everyone was acting as crazily as I was. If people could throw themselves off the balcony to leave faster [they would]. Screaming, running, cars honking, motorcycles, plastic bags … I quickly helped my parents down the stairs to my car, and I only took my cat with me … I currently have no belongings at all.”

    Fatima explained that al-Laylaki is a crowded residential area that remained fully populated until that night because it is on the outskirts of Dahieh and residents did not expect it to be targeted.  

    Abir, who lives with her mother close to al-Laylaki, told Amnesty that she could not immediately evacuate her house because her mother is older and sick, and needs to be carried down the stairs: 

    “It was a night from hell. I laid my mother on the floor in the safest room, which is the old bathroom, we hid our heads with our arms [throughout the bombardment].” 

    They were only able to leave a few hours later after a friend helped carry her mother down from the sixth floor.

    At 3am on 28 September, the Israeli military issued another evacuation warning via X to residents in the districts of Burj al-Barajneh and al-Hadath, again in Beirut’s southern suburbs, instructing them to move 500 metres away from three other identified buildings. The warning did not give a timeframe for evacuation and maps of the affected areas were similarly misleading, highlighting areas much smaller than the indicated 500 metre radius.  

    At 5:47 am, the National News Agency reported that Israeli airstrikes targeted al-Hadath and al-Laylaki as well as the Chouiefat and al-Kafaat districts in Beirut’s southern suburbs, which were not listed in the evacuation warning. Local media reported continued airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs throughout the day. 

    Taghreed, a resident of Hay el-Sellom, said that she had not heard about the Israeli warning and took the decision to flee after the major attack that killed Hassan Nasrallah. She told Amnesty: “We were hiding and couldn’t reach the television. I don’t have social media so I don’t know what the Israelis said.” 

    Ahmad, a resident of Burj al-Barajneh, also said that he made the decision to leave Dahieh immediately after the airstrike that killed Nasrallah, as he lives with his elderly parents. He said:

    “While we were still stuck on the road out of Dahieh, with all the ambulances trying to prioritise the wounded people, we heard about the warning on the radio in the van. I felt bitter. This is not a warning, it’s torture. It’s a sadistic game: ‘we will kill you and your family soon. Show us how you can escape’.”

    On 30 September, the Israeli military issued a warning to evacuate from the surroundings of residential buildings in al-Laylaki, Haret Hreik and Burj al-Barajneh. The Israeli military launched a series of airstrikes just 30 minutes later. Similarly, on 3 October, at 10:51 pm, the Israeli military issued an evacuation warning for the residents of Burj al-Barajneh, telling them to leave immediately. Local media reported a “heavy strike” minutes after the evacuation order was issued, and at least four attacks by 11:30 pm. 

    Under international law, Hezbollah and other armed groups must, to the extent feasible, avoid locating military objectives, including fighters, ammunition, weapons, and military infrastructure, in or near densely-populated areas. However, the presence of military objectives in populated areas does not absolve Israeli forces of their obligations under international humanitarian law to avoid indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks as well as to take all feasible precautions to spare civilians, including civilians who fail to leave the area after an evacuation warning. Failure to provide effective advance warnings of attacks which may affect civilians, unless circumstances do not permit, and not taking all other feasible precautions to protect civilians, constitute violations of international humanitarian law. 

    Case studies – southern Lebanon

    On 1 October, the Israeli military issued two evacuation warnings to residents of southern Lebanon. The first, at 9:21 am, instructed residents not to move vehicles south of the Litani River “until further notice,” alleging that Hezbollah is using “the civilian environment and the population as human shields”. At 12:18 pm, the Israeli military instructed residents of more than 25 towns across southern Lebanon to evacuate and move north of the Awwali River, some 58 km from the border with Israel and about 30km farther than the Litani River, which marks the UN buffer zone created after the 2006 war. 

    On 2 October, at 9:11 am and then at 11:15 am, the Israeli military issued warnings for a further 24 towns and villages across southern Lebanon, telling residents to “save their lives and leave their homes immediately”, ordering them to move north of the Awwali River and saying that any movement south could expose them to danger. The Israeli military issued a similar warning at 12:49 pm on 3 October for a further 25 towns and villages, at 9:11 am on 4 October for a further 35 villages, and at 12:58 pm on 7 October for 25 additional villages. 

    None of the “orders” offered safe and effective evacuation information, just instructing residents to leave “immediately”. 

    Amnesty’s concerns about the warnings to civilians in south Lebanon are heightened by some statements from Israeli political and military leaders indicating that they considered Lebanese civilians and property to be legitimate targets. Benjamin Netanyahu said on 27 September there is “a missile in every kitchen, a rocket in every garage”. The Israeli Education Minister said on television on 21 September that there was no difference between Hezbollah and Lebanon and that Lebanon “would be annihilated”. In June, the Israeli Defence Minister said that Israel is capable of returning Lebanon “to the stone age”. 

    The south Lebanon warnings and instructions that vehicles do not travel south of the Litani River also raise serious concerns over civilians’ access to essential supplies and services, including food, medication, healthcare and fuel. The mukhtar of Rmeich, a village south of the Litani river close to the border with Israel, which did not receive an evacuation warning but is within the area in which Israel has said vehicles are prohibited from travelling, told Amnesty that supplies in the town were rapidly dwindling. “The area is going to become destitute. How can we continue? It’s like they want to displace us,” he said.

    The conditions being created by Israel’s actions in south Lebanon risk forcibly displacing the majority of the civilian population there. One of the towns in southern Lebanon that the Israeli military warned must be evacuated is Ain Ebel, where the majority of residents are Christian and have no known affiliation with Hezbollah. 

    Rakan Diab, an Ain Ebel resident, told Amnesty that residents of the village were surprised when, on 1 October, Ain Ebel was included in the Israeli military’s evacuation warning on X. Shortly afterwards, the village mayor received a call from a person purporting to be a member of the Israeli military warning residents to flee within around 45 minutes because there were weapons in the village. “People panicked … we needed to pack and leave immediately,” Rakan Diab said, explaining how the majority fled to the nearby village of Rmeich and the Lebanese army and the Lebanese Red Cross facilitated safe passage for a convoy of around 100 cars from Rmeich to north of the Awwali River. 

    Year of Israel-Lebanon conflict

    Israel’s intensified military attacks in Lebanon began on 23 September. During the first day, Israeli forces carried out at least 1,600 attacks in areas across Lebanon, killing more than 500 people and injuring more than 1,800 in the first 24 hours. Hezbollah also launched more than 200 rockets towards Israel that day, with around 10 people sustaining shrapnel or debris wounds. 

    Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in ongoing cross-border hostilities since the group launched attacks into northern Israel following the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Gaza last October. Israeli attacks on Lebanon since 7 October 2023 have killed at least 2,083 people, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. More than 1.2 million people have been displaced in Lebanon, and at least 400,000 have crossed the border to Syria. 

    Since 8 October 2023, Hezbollah and other armed groups have launched thousands of missiles at northern Israel, killing 16 civilians. A further 12 civilians, all children, were killed on 27 July in an attack on Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights. Around 63,000 residents of northern Israel have been evacuated since 8 October. In one Hezbollah attack, on 12 November 2023, an anti-tank missile hit a group of electricity company workers who were doing infrastructure work near Dovev. One worker was killed and another lightly injured. In another attack, on 9 July, two civilians were killed when a missile hit their car while driving on highway 91 in the Golan Heights. In a statement released that day, Hezbollah took responsibility and said that it targeted the nearby Nafah military base in response to the assassination of one of its members. Many of Hezbollah’s rockets are unguided and cannot be aimed at a specific target. Firing inherently inaccurate rockets into areas where civilians are present are indiscriminate attacks, and thus violate international humanitarian law. Direct attacks on civilians and indiscriminate attacks which kill or injure civilians constitute war crimes.

    MIL OSI NGO –