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Category: Reportage

  • MIL-OSI Global: Syrian regime change: How rebel victories often lead to unstable, non-inclusive governments

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sally Sharif, Lecturer in Political Science, University of British Columbia

    Syria’s rebel leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has defended his decision to fill his cabinet with wartime loyalists and delay constitutional and electoral processes, describing these moves as pragmatic necessities for the country’s fragile transition.

    At the same time, he has called for the disarmament of all rival factions, especially the Kurds in northern Syria. In a recent Al-Arabiya interview, al-Sharaa outlined a vision for a presidential system, with appointed, not elected, delegates shaping Syria’s new constitution before elections could be held.

    His blueprint leaves little room for international oversight, as he insisted the United Nations and foreign powers should play only a minimal role in the process.



    Read more:
    Syria after Assad: A fresh chance for inclusive governance and power-sharing, or more of the same?

    Many observers are focusing on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the factional winner of Syria’s protracted war, and its troubling history of ties to al-Qaida and ISIS.

    Questions abound: Will the group’s past alliances shape its governance? Can a group with such a violent legacy chart a path to inclusive peace?

    These questions are vital, but my research with colleagues at the universities of Notre Dame and Pittsburgh suggests that regimes emerging from rebel victories tend to share strikingly similar governance challenges. The question isn’t just whether Syria will chart a different course — it’s whether it can defy the grim lessons of history.

    Rebel victories

    Rebel victories tend to follow a predictable script: a regime born of war seeks to solidify power under the guise of stability.

    The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 1996 offers a stark example. After their military triumph, they penned a constitution in private, with input solely from Islamic scholars. No civil society entities were invited to the table. The resulting document prioritized ideology over inclusivity, and laid the groundwork for a repressive regime.

    Rebel victories are not mere regime changes; they are seismic upheavals. Unlike negotiated transitions or elite-led coups, these regimes arise from violent conflict.

    Our research has found that since 1946, 45 countries have experienced one or more episodes of rebel victory, leaving behind weak states with fragile institutions and deep societal divides. Governance in these situations often becomes synonymous with survival, with leaders prioritizing the consolidation of authority over fostering broad-based stability.

    Cases of rebel victory underline a troubling trend: rebel leaders often use constitutional processes to centralize power rather than create institutions that can manage grievances or prevent renewed violence.

    Expropriation of private property

    Our research indicates that constitutions drafted by rebel regimes frequently allow for selective enforcement of property rights, granting broad powers to expropriate under vague justifications. For instance, constitutions of rebel regimes are more likely to allow the government to expropriate private property for “general public purposes,” often without compensation or legal recourse.

    Most victorious rebels use constitutional changes to maintain property insecurity as a strategy for consolidating power in an uncertain environment. After the fall of the Derg regime in Ethiopia in 1991, the country’s rebel regime used constitutional provisions to expropriate land for “public use,” selectively targeting marginalized communities and dissenting regions. It consolidated power under the guise of reform while undermining property rights and economic liberalization.

    While such measures may temporarily stabilize power, they also fuel grievances, erode trust in state institutions, and often sow the seeds of future conflict.

    A small number of rebel regimes, however, take a different path, opting for negotiated constitutional reform. By including rival groups in the process and extending political, social and civic rights to marginalized populations, these regimes can lay the groundwork for more inclusive governance and lasting peace.

    Between 1989 and 2012, 56 per cent of comprehensive peace accords included provisions for constitutional reform. Such reforms often serve as nation-building mechanisms in newly formed states, or promote peace among divided communities. By creating a written, negotiated framework for governance, constitutions incentivize non-violent engagement and provide citizens and international entities with tools to hold rebel incumbents accountable.

    Helping rebel regimes

    There are two ways the global community can influence what happens in rebel regimes — by being punitive and/or by incentivizing. When the Taliban won in Afghanistan in 2021, the international community quickly imposed sanctions on the new rebel regime and froze Afghan assets abroad.

    In our analysis, we found that sanctions and arms embargoes — examples of punitive actions — do not significantly reduce the likelihood of civil wars recurring in rebel regimes.

    Instead of punitive measures, the Global North in particular should try to influence Syria’s new leaders with incentivizing measures, such as offering economic aid in exchange for peace agreements and facilitating peace-building processes.

    The good news for the international community is that, unlike the Taliban, al-Sharaa has shown an openness to collaborate with the West. This presents a critical opportunity to encourage Syria’s rebel leaders to adopt inclusive governance practices, which, in the long run, will reduce the risk of renewed conflict.

    Instead of calling for the complete disarmament of rival factions and drafting a new constitution solely by delegates of the rebel winners, al-Sharaa should sign a peace agreement with rival factions which includes the terms for a negotiated, inclusive constitutional reform process.

    Sally Sharif does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Syrian regime change: How rebel victories often lead to unstable, non-inclusive governments – https://theconversation.com/syrian-regime-change-how-rebel-victories-often-lead-to-unstable-non-inclusive-governments-247540

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada-U.S. tariff war: How it will impact different products and industries

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, Associate Professor of Agri-Food Trade and Policy, University of Guelph

    U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25 per cent tariff on most Canadian goods. A senior governmental official said they are expected to come into effect on Feb. 4.

    This tariff will have significant economic consequences on both sides of the border, as the U.S. and Canada share one of the largest bilateral trade relationships in the world.

    A key concern is the highly integrated supply chains between the two countries. Many goods cross the border multiple times as intermediate inputs before becoming final products. Imposing tariffs at any point in this supply chain will raise production costs and increase prices for a wide range of goods traded between the U.S. and Canada.

    For Canada, the tariffs on Canadian products will significantly affect Canada’s competitiveness in the U.S. market by driving up prices. Such tariffs could pose serious challenges for various sectors in Canada, given the country’s heavy reliance on the U.S. economy.

    Effects on different sectors

    The impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian prices is likely to differ across sectors and products, depending on their reliance on the U.S. market.

    Sectors with a higher dependence on U.S. trade are likely to experience more severe disruptions. If the tariffs make certain products uncompetitive, Canadian producers may struggle to secure alternative markets in the short term.

    Industries such as agriculture, manufacturing and energy will experience varying degrees of impact. Energy products and motor vehicles, which represent Canada’s largest exports to the U.S., are expected to be among the most adversely affected.

    In the agricultural and forestry sector, wood and paper products, along with cereals, are among Canada’s largest exports to the U.S., with the U.S. accounting for 86 to 96 per cent of these exports, according to data from the World Integrated Trade Solution.

    In the energy and mineral sector, crude oil is Canada’s top export, reaching US$143 billion in 2023, with 90 per cent destined for the U.S. Given its critical role as Canada’s largest export across all sectors, it is not surprising that Trump has noted crude oil would subject to a lower tariff of 10 per cent.

    Canada’s dependence on U.S. trade

    When examining the impact on different products, it’s not only the value of trade that matters, but also the share of trade. The share of trade indicates how reliant Canada is on the U.S. compared to other markets.

    A high trade share with the U.S. suggests a product is particularly vulnerable to trade disruptions, as Canada depends heavily on the U.S. market for that product. Conversely, a lower share indicates that Canada has diversified suppliers, which reduces its dependence on the U.S.



    Read more:
    Trump’s tariff threat could shake North American trade relations and upend agri-food trade

    For instance, in 2023, Canada’s top exports to the U.S. included vehicles and parts, nuclear machinery and plastics, according to data from the World Integrated Trade Solution. The U.S. accounted for 93 per cent of vehicle and parts exports, 82 per cent of nuclear machinery exports, and 91 per cent of plastics exports.

    This data highlights Canada’s extreme dependence on the U.S. market, making these industries within the manufacturing sector highly susceptible to the tariff. This could harm jobs in the manufacturing sector, which is vital to employment in Canada, providing jobs for over 1.8 million people.

    Canada’s reliance on the U.S. is also evident in imports. In 2023, vehicle imports totalled US$92 billion, with the U.S. accounting for 58 per cent of that amount.

    The dependence is also evident in the agri-food and forestry sector, where Canada heavily relies on U.S. imports. This suggests that retaliatory tariffs on agricultural goods from the U.S. could have a substantial impact on food prices in Canada.

    Retaliatory tariffs and inflationary pressures

    Canada has announced it’s imposing $155 billion of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports in response. This could contribute to inflationary pressures within Canada.

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says this includes immediate tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods as of Tuesday, followed by further tariffs on $125 billion worth of American products in 21 days’ time to “allow Canadian companies and supply chains to seek to find alternatives.”

    This will include tariffs on “everyday items such as American beer, wine and bourbon, fruits and fruit juices, including orange juice, along with vegetables, perfume, clothing and shoes,” and also on major consumer products like household appliances, furniture and sports equipment, and materials like lumber and plastics.

    Given Canada’s significant dependence on U.S. imports, the retaliatory tariffs will raise the cost of American goods entering the country, further driving up consumer prices and exacerbating inflation.

    In its latest policy rate announcement, the Bank of Canada warned of the severe economic consequences of Trump’s tariffs, highlighting their potential to reverse the current downward trend in inflation.

    What should Canada do now?

    Canada must extend its economic diplomacy efforts beyond the Trump administration, engaging with the U.S. Congress and Senate to advocate for the reconsideration of tariffs on Canadian goods. The Canadian government should persist in leveraging this channel to push for a reversal of the tariffs. This kind of broader negotiation remains the most effective approach to mitigating trade tensions and ensuring stable economic relations with the U.S.

    At the same time, Canada must reduce dependence on the U.S. market by adopting a comprehensive export diversification strategy. While the U.S. remains a convenient and accessible trade partner, expanding into emerging and developing markets would help mitigate risks and create more stable long-term trade opportunities.



    Read more:
    Trump’s tariff threat is a sign that Canada should be diversifying beyond the U.S.

    One effective way to achieve export diversification is by expanding free trade agreements (FTAs) with emerging and developing economies. Currently, Canada has 15 FTAs covering about 51 countries, but there is room for expansion. However, signing FTAs alone is insufficient; Canada must ensure these agreements translate into tangible trade growth with partner countries.

    International politics is increasingly shaping global trade, making it imperative for Canada to proactively manage diplomatic and trade relations. In recent years, tensions have emerged with key partners such as China, India and Saudi Arabia. These countries could all become potential markets for Canadian products. Given that China is Canada’s second-largest export destination, there is significant potential to expand trade ties.

    Additionally, countries like the United Arab Emirates present promising markets, particularly for agricultural products, as the UAE imports about 90 per cent of its food.

    Boosting innovation and productivity

    Canada stands at a critical juncture in its trade relationship with the U.S. While diplomatic efforts remain essential to averting harmful tariffs, they cannot be the country’s only line of defence.

    Boosting productivity is one of the most effective ways for Canada to improve its competitiveness in global markets. Canadian producers should prioritize innovation and the adoption of advanced technologies to enhance efficiency and maintain a competitive edge, particularly as they seek to expand beyond the U.S.

    In response to potential U.S. tariffs, the Canadian government should implement a bailout strategy to provide short-term relief and mitigate revenue losses to firms that will be mostly affected. Additionally, Canada should leverage its embassies and consulates worldwide to promote exports and help affected firms identify and access new market opportunities.

    By doing this, Canada can position itself as a more self-reliant and competitive player in the global economy — one less vulnerable to shifting U.S. policies.

    Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor receives funding from the OMAFRA and the USDA. He is affiliated with the Centre for Trade Analysis and Development (CeTAD Africa).

    Naduni Uduwe Welage and Promesse Essolema do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada-U.S. tariff war: How it will impact different products and industries – https://theconversation.com/canada-u-s-tariff-war-how-it-will-impact-different-products-and-industries-248824

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Education in Zimbabwe has lost its value: study asks young people how they feel about that

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kristina Pikovskaia, Leverhulme Early Career Research Fellow, University of Edinburgh

    Zimbabwean students and graduates are actively seeking change to the education system. AFP via Getty Images

    Education, especially higher education, is a step towards adulthood and a foundation for the future.

    But what happens when education loses its value as a way to climb the social ladder? What if a degree is no guarantee of getting stable work, being able to provide for one’s family, or owning a house or car?

    This devaluing of higher education as a path to social mobility is a grim reality for young Zimbabweans. Over the past two decades the southern African country has been beset by economic, financial, political and social challenges.

    These crises have severely undermined the premises and promises of education, especially at a tertiary level. A recent survey by independent research organisation Afrobarometer found that 90% of young Zimbabweans had secondary and post-secondary education compared to 83% of those aged between 36 and 55. But 41% of the youth were unemployed and looking for a job as opposed to 26% of the older generation.

    The situation is so dire that it’s become a recurring theme in Zimdancehall, a popular music genre produced and consumed by young Zimbabweans. “Hustling” (attempts to create income-generating opportunities), informal livelihoods and young people’s collapsed dreams are recurrent topics in songs like Winky D’s Twenty Five, Junior Tatenda’s Kusvikira Rinhi and She Calaz’s Kurarama.

    I study the way people experience the informal economy in Zimbabwe and Zambia. In a recent study I explored the loss of education’s value as a social mobility tool in the Zimbabwean context.

    My research revealed how recent school and university graduates think about the role of education in their lives. My respondents felt let down by the fact that education no longer provided social mobility. They were disappointed that there was no longer a direct association between education and employment.

    However, the graduates I interviewed were not giving up. Some were working towards new qualifications, hoping and preparing for economic improvements. They also thought deeply about how the educational system could be improved. Many young people got involved in protests. These included actions by the Coalition of Unemployed Graduates and the #ThisGown protests, which addressed graduate unemployment issues. Some also took part in #ThisFlag and #Tajamuka protests, which had wider socio-economic and political agendas.

    Understanding history

    To understand the current status and state of education in Zimbabwe it’s important to look to the country’s history.

    Zimbabwe was colonised by the British from the late 19th century. The colonial education system was racialised. Education for white students was academic. For Black students, it was mostly practice-oriented, to create a pool of semi-skilled workers.

    In the 1930s education was instrumental in the formation of Zimbabwe’s Black middle class. A small number of Black graduates entered white collar jobs, using education as a social mobility tool. The educational system also opened up somewhat for women.

    Despite some university reforms during the 1950s, the system remained deeply racialised until the 1980s. That’s when the post-colonial government democratised the education system. Primary school enrolment went up by 242%, and 915% more students entered secondary school. In the 1990s nine more state universities were opened.

    However, worsening economic conditions throughout the 1990s put pressure on the system. A presidential commission in 1999 noted that secondary schools were producing graduates with non-marketable skills – they were too academic and focused on examinations. Students’ experiences, including at the university level, have worsened since then.

    The decline has been driven by systemic and institutional problems in primary and secondary education, like reduced government spending, teachers’ poor working conditions, political interference and brain drain. This, coupled with the collapse of the formal economic sector and a sharp drop in formal employment opportunities, severely undermined education’s social mobility function.

    ‘A key, but no door to open’

    My recent article was based on my wider doctoral research. For this, I studied economic informalisation in Zimbabwe’s capital city, Harare. It involved more than 120 interviews during eight months of in-country research.

    This particular paper builds on seven core interviews with recent school and university graduates in the informal sector, as well as former student leaders.

    Winky D’s “Twenty Five” is about young Zimbabweans’ grievances.

    Some noted that education had lost part of its value as it related to one’s progression in society. As one of my respondents, Ashlegh Pfunye (former secretary-general of the Zimbabwe National Students Union), described it, young people were told that education was a key to success – but there was no door to open.

    Some of my respondents were working in the informal sector, as vendors and small-scale producers. Some could not use their degrees to secure jobs, while others gave up their dreams of obtaining a university degree. Lisa, for example, was very upset about giving up on her dream to pursue post-secondary education and tried to re-adjust to her current circumstances:

    I used to dream that I will have my own office, now I dream that one day I’ll have my own shop.

    Those who had university qualifications stressed that, despite being unable to apply their degrees in the current circumstances, they kept going to school and getting more certification. This prepared them for future opportunities in the event of what everyone hoped for: economic improvement.

    Historical tensions

    Some of my interviewees, especially recent university graduates and activists, were looking for possible solutions – like changing the curriculum and approach to education that trains workers rather than producers and entrepreneurs. As Makomborero Haruzivishe, former secretary-general of the Zimbabwe National Students’ Union, said: “Our educational system was created to train human robots who would follow the instructions.”

    Entrepreneurship education is a popular approach in many countries to changing the structure of classic education. In the absence of employment opportunities for skilled graduates, it is supposed to provide them with the tools to create such opportunities for themselves and others.



    Read more:
    Nigeria’s universities need to revamp their entrepreneurship courses — they’re not meeting student needs

    In 2018, the government introduced what it calls the education 5.0 framework. It has a strong entrepreneurship component. It’s too soon to say whether it will bear fruit. And it may be held back by history.

    For example, the introduction of the Education-with-Production model in the 1980s, which included practical subjects and vocational training, was met with resistance because it was seen as a return to the dual system.

    Because of Zimbabwe’s historically racialised education system, many students and parents favour the UK-designed Cambridge curriculum and traditional academic educational programmes. Zimbabwe has the highest number of entrants into the Cambridge International exam in Africa.

    Feeling let down

    The link between education and employment in Zimbabwe has many tensions: modernity and survival, academic pursuits and practicality, promises and reality. It’s clear from my study that graduates feel let down because the modernist promises of education have failed them.

    Parts of this research have been funded by the University of Oxford and the Leverhulme Trust (ECF-2022-055).

    – ref. Education in Zimbabwe has lost its value: study asks young people how they feel about that – https://theconversation.com/education-in-zimbabwe-has-lost-its-value-study-asks-young-people-how-they-feel-about-that-244661

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sudan war: ethnic divisions are being used to cover up army failures – peace scholar

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Jan Pospisil, Associate Professor at the Centre for Peace and Security, Coventry University

    Sudan’s civil war has devastated the country and strained relations with neighbouring South Sudan. Events in January 2025 have stirred up xenophobic feelings in Sudan and outrage in its southern neighbour, heightening the risk of regional instability.

    Early in the year, the Sudanese Armed Forces captured Wad Madani, a town in Sudan’s central Al Gazira state. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces had seized control of the town at the start of Sudan’s civil war in April 2023.

    In the days following the army’s takeover of Wad Madani, various images and videos surfaced online. They showed brutal reprisals from the soldiers, including systemic killings and torture. Some of these acts were ethnically targeted against South Sudanese workers employed in the region’s agricultural schemes.

    These images sparked outrage in South Sudan. This led to anti-Sudanese riots in the capital Juba and other cities on 16 January 2025, resulting in fatalities, injuries and widespread looting.

    The Sudanese army formed a committee to investigate the attacks in Wad Madani. The credibility of these investigation is questionable, however, given that the committee is composed of army loyalists.

    Further hurting the investigation’s credibility was a statement a few days later from the army’s second-in-command, Mohamed al-Atta, alleging that South Sudanese fighters constitute 65% of the Rapid Support Forces.

    These events have strained relations between Sudan and South Sudan, compounding an already volatile association.

    They also highlight a war strategy the Sudanese army is pursuing to gain domestic support: that the Rapid Support Forces is primarily composed of foreigners, in this case, South Sudanese fighters.



    Read more:
    War in Sudan puts South Sudan in danger too: the world’s youngest nation needs a stable neighbour

    This rhetoric has been fuelled by historical tensions between Sudan and South Sudan arising from the liberation war and the latter’s subsequent independence. South Sudan’s independence resulted in the loss of valuable oil resources for Sudan.

    Further, the narrative that the Rapid Support Forces largely comprises foreign fighters – helpfully for the army – feeds and taps into nationalistic and xenophobic sentiments in Sudan. These sentiments date back to the post-independence efforts of the ruling elite to establish an Islamic and Arab state. This marginalised smaller ethnic groups.

    The army’s rhetoric is further supported by the overlap of tribal and ethnic affiliations across Sudan’s borders, including South Sudan and Chad. There are also the numerous reports of the paramilitary group receiving support from foreign players like the United Arab Emirates.

    I have studied transition processes and conflict dynamics in Sudan and South Sudan for more than 15 years. In my view, the army has used the narrative that the Rapid Support Forces is a foreign one to rally domestic support – and distract attention from its own actions and failures.

    The strategy

    The leadership of the Sudanese Armed Forces has frequently emphasised the Rizeigat origins of the paramilitary forces’ leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti.

    The Rizeigat tribe spans both the Darfur and Chad border. This has supported claims that the Rapid Support Forces includes Chadians. Reports of the paramilitary group recruiting in Chad and the presence of Chadian militants in Khartoum have further reinforced this portrayal.

    When it comes to South Sudanese involvement, there is documented evidence of South Sudanese fighters participating in the Sudan conflict. However, the scale of their involvement is grossly overstated. Even the highest estimates from my research contacts suggest fewer than 5,000 South Sudanese fighters have been involved. This is a mere fraction of the Rapid Support Forces’ estimated 100,000-strong militia.



    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE

    Another contributing factor to the narrative around South Sudanese involvement is the South Sudan People’s Movement/Army. This is an opposition group that operates along the Sudan-South Sudan border. It targets South Sudanese government forces, sometimes using Sudan as a base of operations.

    Since the onset of the war, I have learned in the course of my work that some South Sudan People’s Movement/Army troops have aligned with the Rapid Support Forces and participated in battles across Khartoum. Others have used their time in Sudan to acquire weapons and supplies for operations in South Sudan.

    However, these opposition fighters are primarily motivated by pragmatic considerations. These include access to resources and political leverage, rather than any ideological alignment with the paramilitary group’s broader goals. These goals include reshaping the power dynamics in Sudan.

    The South Sudanese group’s leader Stephen Buay has formally denied any links with the Rapid Support Forces. However, he has occasionally praised the paramilitary troops’ push against the Sudanese army.

    Buay is participating in peace talks in Nairobi, where he has collaborated with other South Sudanese opposition figures to form a new joint force. This underscores his focus on South Sudan rather than Sudan.

    The implications

    Against this background, al-Atta’s claim that South Sudanese fighters make up most of the Rapid Support Forces is best understood as part of a broader strategy to justify the army’s actions and rally nationalist sentiment.

    This strategy, however, worsens ethnic and regional tensions. It scapegoats South Sudanese fighters and further entrenches divisions between the two nations.



    Read more:
    How militia groups capture states and ruin countries: the case of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces

    This rhetoric aligns with the Sudanese army regime’s broader propaganda efforts, which frequently vilify perceived outsiders or adversaries to consolidate power and justify its actions on the battlefield.

    This approach risks perpetuating the cycle of violence, mistrust and regional instability.

    Jan Pospisil receives funding from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) through the PeaceRep research programme.

    – ref. Sudan war: ethnic divisions are being used to cover up army failures – peace scholar – https://theconversation.com/sudan-war-ethnic-divisions-are-being-used-to-cover-up-army-failures-peace-scholar-248325

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico amp up the risk of a broader trade war

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Markus Wagner, Professor of Law and Director of the UOW Transnational Law and Policy Centre, University of Wollongong

    It’s official. On February 1, US President Donald Trump will introduce a sweeping set of new 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. China will also face new tariffs of 10%.

    During the presidential campaign, Trump threatened tariffs against all three countries, claiming they weren’t doing enough to prevent an influx of “drugs, in particular fentanyl” into the US, while also accusing Canada and Mexico of not doing enough to stop “illegal aliens”.

    There will be some nuance. On Friday, Trump said tariffs on oil and gas would come into effect later, on February 18, and that Canadian oil would likely face a lower tariff of 10%.

    This may only be the first move against China. Trump has previously threatened the country with 60% tariffs, asserting this will bring jobs back to America.

    But the US’ move against its neighbours will have an almost immediate impact on the three countries involved and the landscape of North American trade. It marks the beginning of what could be a radical reshaping of international trade and political governance around the world.

    What Trump wants from Canada and Mexico

    While border security and drug trade concerns are the official rationale for this move, Trump’s tariffs have broader motivations.

    The first one is protectionist. In all his presidential campaigning, Trump portrayed himself as a champion of US workers. Back in October, he said tariff was “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”.

    Trump hasn’t hidden his fondness for protectionist trade measures.

    This reflects the ongoing scepticism toward international trade that Trump – and politicians more generally on both ends of the political spectrum in the US – have held for some time.

    It’s a significant shift in the close trade links between these neighbours. The US, Mexico and Canada are parties to the successor of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

    Trump has not hidden his willingness to use tariffs as a weapon to pressure other countries to achieve unrelated geopolitical goals. This is the epitome of what a research project team I co-lead calls “Weaponised Trade”.

    This was on full display in late January. When the president of Colombia prohibited US military airplanes carrying Colombian nationals deported from the US to land, Trump successfully used the threat of tariffs to force Colombia to reverse course.



    Read more:
    What are tariffs?

    The economic stakes

    The volume of trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico is enormous, encompassing a wide range of goods and services. Some of the biggest sectors are automotive manufacturing, energy, agriculture, and consumer goods.

    In 2022, the value of all goods and services traded between the US and Canada came to about US$909 billion (A$1.46 trillion). Between the US and Mexico that same year, it came to more than US$855 billion (A$1.37 trillion).

    One of the hardest hit industries will be the automotive industry, which depends on cross-border trade. A car assembled in Canada, Mexico or the US relies heavily on a supply of parts from throughout North America.

    Tariffs will raise costs throughout this supply chain, which could lead to higher prices for consumers and make US-based manufacturers less competitive.

    Auto manufacturing stands to be hit hard by Trump’s tariffs.
    Around the World Photos/Shutterstock

    There could also be ripple effects for agriculture. The US exports billions of dollars in corn, soybeans, and meat to Canada and Mexico, while importing fresh produce such as avocados and tomatoes from Mexico.

    Tariffs may provoke retaliatory measures, putting farmers and food suppliers in all three countries at risk.

    Trump’s decision to delay and reduce tariffs on oil was somewhat predictable. US imports of Canadian oil have increased steadily over recent decades, meaning tariffs would immediately bite US consumers at the fuel pump.

    We’ve been here before

    This isn’t the first time the world has dealt with Trump’s tariff-heavy approach to trade policy. Looking back to his first term may provide some clues about what we might expect.

    In 2018, the US levied duties on steel and aluminium. Both Canada and Mexico are both major exporters of steel to the US.

    In his first term, Trump imposed major tariffs on US steel imports.
    ABCDstock/Shutterstock

    Canada and Mexico imposed retaliatory tariffs. Ultimately, all countries removed tariffs on steel and aluminium in the process of finalising the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

    Notably, though, many of Trump’s trade policies remained in place even after President Joe Biden took office.

    This signalled a bipartisan scepticism of unfettered trade and a shift toward on-shoring or re-shoring in US policy circles.

    The options for Canada and Mexico

    This time, Canada and Mexico’s have again responded with threats of retaliatory tariffs.

    But they’ve also made attempts to mollify Trump – such as Canada launching a “crackdown” on fentanyl trade.

    Generally speaking, responses to these tariffs could range from measured diplomacy to aggressive retaliation. Canada and Mexico may target politically sensitive industries such as agriculture or gasoline, where Trump’s base could feel the pinch.

    There are legal options, too. Canada and Mexico could pursue legal action through the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement’s dispute resolution mechanisms or the World Trade Organization (WTO).

    Both venues provide pathways for challenging unfair trade practices. But these practices can be slow-moving, uncertain in their outcomes and are susceptible to being ignored.

    A more long-term option for businesses in Canada and Mexico is to diversify their trade relationships to reduce reliance on the US market. However, the facts of geography, and the large base of consumers in the US mean that’s easier said than done.

    The looming threat of a global trade war

    Trump’s latest tariffs underscore a broader trend: the widening of the so-called “Overton window” to achieve unrelated geopolitical goals.

    The Overton Window refers to the range of policy options politicians have because they are accepted among the general public.

    Arguments for bringing critical industries back to the US, protecting domestic jobs, and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains gained traction after the ascent of China as a geopolitical and geoeconomic rival.

    These arguments picked up steam during the COVID-19 pandemic and have increasingly been turned into actual policy.

    The potential for a broader trade war looms large. Trump’s short-term goal may be to leverage tariffs as a tool to secure concessions from other jurisdictions.

    Trump’s threats against Denmark – in his quest to obtain control over Greenland – are a prime example. The European Union (EU), a far more potent economic player, has pledged its support for Denmark.

    A North American trade war – foreshadowed by the Canadian and Mexican governments – might then only be harbinger of things to come: significant economic harm, the erosion of trust among trading partners, and increased volatility in global markets.

    Markus Wagner receives funding from the Department of Defence, Australia as a Chief Investigator on a project titled Weaponised Trade.

    – ref. Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico amp up the risk of a broader trade war – https://theconversation.com/trumps-25-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-amp-up-the-risk-of-a-broader-trade-war-248667

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The far-right is rising at a crucial time in Germany, boosted by Elon Musk

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matt Fitzpatrick, Professor in International History, Flinders University

    With only a few weeks until Germany’s election, Elon Musk has unambiguously thrown his support behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. In a video address to a party rally last week, he appeared to urge Germans to “move on” from any “past guilt” related to the Holocaust.

    It’s good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything.

    Troublingly, the AfD is now firmly entrenched as Germany’s second-most popular political party, behind the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Like all parties in German elections, however, it cannot win an outright majority. It is also unlikely to be invited to join any ruling coalition that emerges from the February 23 election.

    But the AfD’s anti-migrant, anti-government sloganeering has already seriously distorted Germany’s public debate and democratic culture, leaving many to ask whether it even needs to win elections to see its policies implemented.

    This was evident following a dramatic week in Germany’s Bundestag.

    First, in a radical break with Germany’s political norms, opposition leader Friedrich Merz deliberately drew on the votes of the AfD on Wednesday to ram a radical anti-asylum seeker motion through the parliament.

    It was the first time in the history of the Bundestag that a parliamentary majority was reached with the help of the far right. Merz’s action was widely condemned as a “taboo-breaking” step towards legitimising the AfD.

    Merz tried to take this a step further with a far-reaching bill to tighten immigration controls on Friday. Although the bill narrowly failed, all of the AfD voted with Merz. Twelve members of his own CDU party refused to back him.

    Merz’s courting of the far right is widely seen as politically unnecessary, given his conservative CDU is already leading the national polls, making him the favourite to succeed the Social Democratic Party (SDP)‘s Olaf Scholz as chancellor.

    This raises a couple crucial questions heading into the election. Is it insiders or outsiders that are playing the biggest role in bringing the far right into the mainstream? And just how big a role will the AfD play after the election?

    The Musk effect

    Musk’s embrace of the AfD should come as no surprise, given the integral part he played in Donald Trump’s election victory in the United States. In the German context, however, his behaviour and statements have taken on darker hues.

    Germans know only too well what is at stake when democracy is eroded by those who abuse its freedoms to attack it. Had Musk’s now notorious Nazi salutes following Trump’s inauguration been performed in Berlin, for example, he might have faced up to three years in prison.

    The catchphrase “never again” has underpinned German politics since the second world war. Yet, the response to Musk’s recent provocations was oddly muted in some sections of the German media.

    The German tabloid Bild made embarrassing excuses for his Hitlerian salute, while others spoke vaguely of a “questionable gesture”.

    With a few notable exceptions, it was left to activists to remind Germans of the severity of this gesture – projecting an image of Musk’s salute on a German Tesla plant, alongside the word “heil”.

    Given the seriousness with which Germany patrols representations of its Nazi past, it was surprising just how few journalists were prepared to state without equivocation that “a Hitler salute is a Hitler salute is a Hitler salute”.

    Merz’s embrace of the far right

    Initially, there were some signs Germany’s main political leaders would decry Musk’s attempts to normalise far-right politics in the country.

    When Musk called the AfD the “last spark of hope” in December, both Scholz and Merz quickly condemned his meddling.

    Scholz has continued to label Musk’s blatant attempts to influence German politics as “unacceptable” and “disgusting”.

    Merz claims to be keeping his distance from Musk. But it appears his strategy for winning the election is not far from what Musk is suggesting – mimicking AfD policies and collaborating with the party on anti-immigration votes.

    In his most radical break with the centrism that characterised the CDU under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, Merz cracked the “firewall” against working with the far-right this week. Knowing just what it meant, he used the AfD’s support to pass the starkly worded nationalist border protection motion in the Bundestag.

    The AfD publicly celebrated their good fortune, calling it a “historic day for Germany”.

    Democratic party leaders, meanwhile, registered their shock and dismay. Merkel herself spoke out against Merz, saying it was “wrong” to “knowingly” work with the AfD.

    Her intervention appears to have been critical to the immigration bill failing on Friday, with many of her former supporters in the CDU withholding their votes.

    What AfD’s rise could mean

    Given the two votes in the past week and Musk’s high-profile intervention, many in Germany now fear a CDU victory in the election could signal more collaboration with the AfD.

    The Left Party has denounced Merz as an AfD puppet and demanded Musk be forbidden from entering Germany.

    The Greens’ Robert Habeck, Germany’s vice chancellor, has said Merz’s nationalist coalition would “destroy Europe”. He has also warned Musk to keep his “hands off our democracy”, prompting Musk to label Habeck “a traitor to the German people”.

    Musk is by no means the cause of the AfD’s popularity, but his embrace of the extremist party has given it a global profile and credibility in circles that might not have otherwise considered supporting it.

    Musk has been a controversial figure in Germany ever since his Tesla “gigafactory” arrived in Brandenburg and was promptly accused of felling 500,000 trees and irreparably damaging precious groundwater reserves. Accusations of Tesla breaching German labour laws and even conducting surprise checks on sick workers have also not endeared him to progressive Germans.

    As some commentators have suggested, it is probably not coincidental the AfD’s plans for the German economy would benefit Musk’s business interests. Economic self-interest alone seems insufficient, however, to explain why Musk has gravitated to the extreme right.

    The same might be said of Merz. Electoral calculations alone cannot explain his risky courting of the far right. He has long been the frontrunner to win the next election. Cosying up to the AfD will only make it harder to form a coalition with either Scholz’s Social Democratic Party or the Greens.

    If these two parties refuse to deal with Merz, the only other bloc large enough to deliver his party control of the government would be the AfD. Would he go so far?

    Whether it is formally part of the next government or not, the AfD and its camp followers (such as Musk) could be set to have a much bigger influence on German politics. How this will change Germany in the long term remains to be seen.

    Matt Fitzpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. The far-right is rising at a crucial time in Germany, boosted by Elon Musk – https://theconversation.com/the-far-right-is-rising-at-a-crucial-time-in-germany-boosted-by-elon-musk-247895

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Austin 7 is back – a short history of the iconic British car that changed the automotive industry

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tom Stacey, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin University

    In perhaps one of the greatest brand comeback stories in automotive since the Fiat 500 in 2007, British car company Austin announced the return of the Austin Arrow.

    Its name is an unashamed reference to one of the most memorable Austin 7 models – first introduced in the 1920s the Arrow was the original “everyman sportscar”, before the muscle cars (think of the Dodge Challenger) of the US became popular in the 1960s. Now reimagined as an electric Vehicle (EV), the Arrow is designed and made in the UK and aims to be to 2020s consumers what the original was 90 years ago.

    A number of cars are synonymous with the British car industry. In fact, as a small nation, Britain punches above its weight when it comes to classic automobile brands – The Mini, the Range Rover, London black cabs, James Bond’s Aston Martins, and even the London red bus. However, if one car can be credited for creating the dawn of the motor vehicle in the UK, it would be the diminutive Austin 7.

    The car was created in the 1920s at the time when Austin was struggling. New laws were pushing manufacturers to produce smaller, less powerful cars. But Austin’s board of directors didn’t support a cheap, small car with low profit margins. Austin was known for its larger, luxury products.

    However, Sir Herbert Austin and his 18-year-old apprentice Stanley Edge decided to secretly create a small car. Thank god they didn’t heed the board, because they ended up creating the greatest democratising automotive product Britain had ever seen (until they repeated it with the Austin Mini).

    The reason why products such as the Austin 7 come to define their period is rarely due to their technical prowess or exhilarating performance – it’s because they bring to the masses a technology that is both useful and traditionally seen as out of reach.

    The Austin 7 was a bit like the iPhone. There were smartphones that came before it, like the Sony Ericsson p800. However, these were considered expensive and out of reach for the average consumer. The Iphone did the same thing but at a cheaper price and so came to be the definitive smartphone.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    With the Austin 7, Herbert Austin’s team applied the key lessons from Ford’s Model T – creating a simple, modestly powered car with just enough features for mass appeal while incorporating clever design elements that earned the respect of car enthusiasts.

    When the Austin 7 was unveiled in July 1922, it was priced at just £165, when an Austin 20 was between £600 and £700. At a time when the average British worker earned around £5 per week, the only real affordable car had been Ford’s basic and utilitarian Model T at around £250.

    The 7’s ingenious design was the key to its success. With a shared base frame for the car, it could be a four-seater family car, a stylish coupe, or even a racing car.

    This cheap, tiny car not only was a legend in its own right and familiar around the world, but it influenced other legends too.

    Colin Chapman, the founder of Lotus Cars, based his first Lotus 1 on the Austin 7. What is less known is that German car manufacturer BMW built Austin 7s under licence in the 1920s and 30s but called them “Dixis”. Nissan did the same in Japan in the pre-war period. Such licensing deals helped set up both manufacturers’ future success as the powerhouses they are today.

    Austin 7s were produced all over Europe, Asia and even in Australia. The 7 was also produced in the US as the “American Bantam” and its design contributed to the “Willy’s Jeep”, one of the US’s most famous vehicles.

    Ultimately, the beginning of the second world war marked the end of Austin 7 production as the Austin factory at Longbridge, near Birmingham, needed to be repurposed to produce munitions. When the war ended, tastes for vehicles had changed and factories started to produce more modern designs, and not those from the 1920s, marking the end of a British automotive icon in 1939.

    Now it’s back, thanks to the engineer John Stubbs who bought the Austin brand after noticing the brand and trademarks were available. The rights to these had been owned by the Nanjing Automobile Group, which bought MG Rover when it collapsed in 2005. However, Nanjing had let these lapse and Stubbs bought them for £170 in 2015.

    The new Essex-based Austin Motor Company aims to recreate this classic brand, tugging at the heartstrings of those looking nostalgically at Britain’s automotive heyday. The announcement featured images of fun, cheap (£31,000) and light cars driving around the B-roads of Britain, or perhaps being taken to a racetrack for an amateur competition, harking back to earlier days. However, this car is thoroughly modern, featuring an electric motor.

    The new Austin Arrow is not meant to be the usable “everyman” car the original 7 was. For starters, to be compliant with quadricycle (a micro car with less than 6kW of power and an unladen mass no more than 425 kg) legislation it is limited to 60mph as a top speed and the range will be a maximum of 100 miles on one charge.

    However, as that fun, racy, open-top car that it’s predecessors were, it very much captures the spirit of the original Austin 7 Arrow.

    Tom Stacey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Austin 7 is back – a short history of the iconic British car that changed the automotive industry – https://theconversation.com/the-austin-7-is-back-a-short-history-of-the-iconic-british-car-that-changed-the-automotive-industry-248712

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Leonardo da Vinci’s incredible studies of human anatomy still don’t get the recognition they deserve

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Carroll, Reader / Associate Professor in Reproductive Science, Manchester Metropolitan University

    Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    The mere mention of Leonardo da Vinci evokes genius. We know him as a polymath whose interests spanned astronomy, geology, hydrology, engineering and physics. As a painter, his Mona Lisa and Last Supper are considered works of mastery.

    Yet one great achievement that frequently goes unrecognised is his studies of human anatomy. More than 500 years after his death, it’s time this changed.

    Leonardo is thought to have been born on April 15 1452 in Anchiano, a small hamlet near the town of Vinci, close to Florence. His mother was a 16-year-old peasant girl called Caterina di Meo Lippi, and his father was Ser Piero da Vinci, a 26-year-old notary.

    Being illegitimate, the young Leonardo was only permitted an elementary education in reading, writing and arithmetic. He was also barred from becoming a notary, but this worked out to his advantage. Instead of being constrained by life as an officiate, he was free to be creative and explore the world of nature, satisfying his insatiable appetite for knowledge.

    The human anatomy became one of his great interests. This was seeded during his time as an apprentice in Andrea del Verrocchio’s bottega (studio) in Florence, where studying the human form was crucial for achieving realistic depictions.

    Creating detailed anatomical drawings required precise sketching skills and the ability to accurately depict the structures being studied. As Leonardo’s fascination grew, he would delve deeper into anatomy as a discipline.

    Pioneers

    This traces back to the 2nd-century Greek physician Galen of Pergamum, whose anatomical descriptions were mostly based on insights he had gained through dissecting animals and studying wounded gladiators. However, he did no human dissections – they were illegal during his time – and many of his extrapolations from animal to human anatomy were wrong.

    Galen dissecting a monkey, Veloso Salgado (1906).
    wikimedia

    It wasn’t until the 14th century that anatomy and medical science advanced thanks to the start of systematic human cadaver dissections. The physician Mondino de Liuzzi, who practised the first public dissections of human cadavers at the University of Bologna, published the first modern anatomical text, Anathomia Corporis Humani, in 1316.

    The text was mostly descriptive in nature, like that of Galen, lacking drawings to illustrate anatomy. Subsequent texts on the subject during the 14th and early 15th centuries did contain drawings, but these were basic and unrealistic.

    Leonardo advanced this discipline through his remarkable observational skills, knowledge of perspective and, most notably, his outstanding drawing abilities. His anatomical sketches were unlike anything seen before. For example, his sketches of the muscles of the arms and human skull are comparable to illustrations in today’s medical anatomy texts.

    Sketches of human muscles, 1515.
    Italian Renaissance Art, CC BY-SA

    According to Leonardo’s biographer, Giorgio Vasari, the artist “was one of the first who, with Galen’s teachings, began to bring honour to medical studies and to shed real light upon anatomy, which had until that time been shrouded in the deepest shadows of ignorance”.

    Leonardo was the first to depict a detailed study of the human spine, showing its natural curvature and correctly numbered vertebrae. He drew and described nearly all the bones and muscles of the body in beautiful detail, as well as investigating their biomechanics.

    His studies on the heart combined both experimentation and observation. Using an ox’s heart to understand blood flow though the aortic valves, Leonardo poured molten wax into the surrounding cavities to make a wax cast, from which a glass model of the heart was made. He then pumped water mixed with grass seeds through this model to visualise the flow pattern. From this experiment, he concluded that the vortex-like flow of blood through the aortic valves was responsible for closing them during each heartbeat.

    Sketches of the heart, c1507.
    MAG, CC BY-SA

    Over 450 years later, in 1968, scientists used dyes and radiography methods to observe this blood flow and prove that Leonardo was correct. A study in 2014 using MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) also demonstrated that he had provided a strikingly precise depiction of these vortex-like flows.

    Shortcomings

    Leonardo may have dissected around 30 human corpses during his lifetime. Most took place at the Santa Maria Nuova hospital in Florence, and later at the Santo Spirito hospital in Rome. The fact he didn’t have more human cadavers to study probably helps to explain why he also got things wrong.

    In addition, Leonardo was very influenced by Galen, through his readings of both Mondino de Liuzzi and the Persian writer Avicenna (c980-1037), while also dissecting animals such as dogs, cattle and horses to fill in human anatomical gaps.

    This approach is evident in his study of the male and female reproductive system, as I found when carrying out a detailed review of his work in this area. Misconceptions included the presence of three channels in the penis for semen, urine and “animal spirit”. The prostate gland is also missing in all his sketches of the male reproductive system. Meanwhile, he made the uterus spherical (derived from cow dissections), and similarly misrepresented the fallopian tubes and ovaries.

    Even then, Leonardo still got a lot right. He correctly depicts the position of the foetus in the uterus, and the umbilical cord anatomy. He also correctly argued that penile erections were caused by blood engorgement and not by air or “vital spirits” flowing into the penis, as suggested by Galen.

    Sketch of baby in the womb, c1510-1513.
    Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    Where he got things wrong, Leonardo’s shifting focus may also have played a part. His restlessness, disorganised notes and unfinished work suggest ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder). Equally, this may also explain his boundless curiosity and incredible creativity.

    Despite his shortcomings, Leonardo’s anatomical studies were centuries ahead of their time, rivalling modern standards. His work in this area might have been more appreciated had he published it in a book: he had planned one, and is said to have been collaborating with the Renaissance physician and professor, Marc’Antonio della Torre.

    Unfortunately, this was cut short with Marc’Antonio’s death in 1511. Leonardo died in 1519 at the age of 67, and while his gifts to the world have received endless attention, his important contributions to anatomy remain overshadowed, and deserve greater recognition.

    Michael Carroll does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Leonardo da Vinci’s incredible studies of human anatomy still don’t get the recognition they deserve – https://theconversation.com/leonardo-da-vincis-incredible-studies-of-human-anatomy-still-dont-get-the-recognition-they-deserve-248708

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why bats need tunnels

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eleanor Harrison, Lecturer in Ecology, Keele University

    A soprano pipistrelle, one of the commonest UK species, often roosts in buildings. Bearacreative/Shutterstock

    Developers need not “worry about bats and newts” before they start building, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said in a speech that outlined her plans to reform the UK’s planning process. Reeves’ comments suggest construction firms and housebuilders will be allowed to destroy habitat if they pay into “a nature fund” that might finance restoration elsewhere.

    As an ecologist (with a passion for bats), I have serious concerns about what this would mean for the UK’s dwindling biodiversity. The comments from the chancellor are, at best, disheartening at a critical time for nature conservation.

    Bats and newts are derided as the gum in the wheels of the planning system. But the idea that nature inherently obstructs development and stymies our collective prosperity is wrong. There are many ways infrastucture can be designed to work with nature in mind from the start – often with low cost.

    The chancellor’s own calculations are off if she attaches no economic value to nature. In one scientific study that tried to quantify the economic contribution of wildlife, researchers found that losing pest-eating bats in North American farmland would cost farmers several billions of dollars in crop losses.

    Blaming wildlife for economic challenges will only worsen the biodiversity crisis. A report from 2023 found that nearly one in six UK species are at risk of extinction, and that the country is one of the most nature depleted in the world.

    Rather than weakening protections for nature, the UK should be doing much more to help the plants and animals that call these islands home.

    Why we should worry about bats and newts

    Populations of the great crested newt halved between 1965 and 1975 and have continued to decline by 2% every five years since. The enormous loss of habitat is partly to blame: half of all ponds vanished in the 20th century and 80% of those remaining are in poor condition. These figures highlight the long-running failure of the planning system to protect nature.

    Newts need ponds to breed in, but they also traverse surrounding grasslands and marshes to find food and new homes. Destruction of these habitats will not be easily remedied by digging a new pond elsewhere, with money from the chancellor’s new fund. Connections between habitats are also essential – isolated, artificial ponds are of little use if wildlife cannot reach them.

    The UK has lost a vast area of nature habitat within a generation.
    Kyaw Thiha/Shutterstock

    This approach will be even less helpful to bats, whose habitat requirements are even more varied.

    Bats are highly sensitive to environmental changes. The UK is home to 18 species, including the brown long-eared bat and the pug-like barbastelle. Far from being the menace of developers, bats have suffered greatly as changes to buildings have excluded them from making roosts while changes to the wider landscape have made it harder for them to find feeding and breeding sites.

    The numbers of some species have shown a small increase since monitoring began in 1998, but a wider perspective is instructive: the barbastelle bat, for instance, has declined by 99% in the UK over the past few hundred years.

    The wider decline of nature now poses a terrible strain. Local bat conservation groups have reported an uptick in the number of starving or underweight bats. All UK bats eat insects, so their health is linked with moths and butterflies and other pollinators that knit ecosystems together. Bats are an early warning system for the overall health of our environment.

    Develop with nature, not against it

    Conservation measures have to be tailored to the relevant species and setting. Careful deliberation in the planning system is important to protect species – it cannot be replaced with a pot of money that each developer pays into.

    Take “bat tunnels”, the structures designed to help bats safely navigate developments which recently drew the chancellor’s ire. These tunnels have been installed along the HS2 trainline and, in theory, protect bats from the 220-mph train as it intersects their flight paths.

    Bat tunnels maintain connections between habitats, enabling bats to reach their roosting, feeding and breeding sites without risking their lives near roads or other man-made barriers. It’s not just a fatal collision bats risk – noise and pollution also perturb bats and the insects they eat.

    While some species might benefit from a simple bat box that allows bats to roost by providing a roosting structure either outside of a building or on trees, others might need more complex changes. Bats rely on sound to navigate, emitting squeaks that bounce around their environment to create an audible impression of the world.

    Conservationists might build them flight paths composed of hedgerows and other features that bats can use to orient themselves. This can be particularly important for developments over a large area.

    In these instances, it’s important that bats, who may travel several kilometres from their roosts to feeding sites, have well-connected habitats. Fragmenting the landscape leaves smaller and smaller pockets of available habitat which in turn support fewer and fewer species.

    Some measures to help wildlife are cheap and easy to implement.
    Heather Wharram/Shutterstock

    Instead of being an expensive burden, most measures for mitigating development are fairly easy to implement. It could be as simple as maintaining and improving hedgerows or preserving old trees. More ambitious schemes include designing rail lines that allow animals to pass over or beneath.

    Instead of weakening protections and treating biodiversity as a hindrance, a smarter approach would be to integrate nature into development from the outset, and so prevent harm to protected sites and reduce the need for compensation later. The Woodland Trust said that “HS2’s assessment of woodland was significantly deficient” and its impacts to ancient woodland could have been avoided with alternative routes or proposals. In lieu of better assessment, the developers ran into avoidable delays.

    There is no one-size-fits-all approach to conservation – no big pot of funding that can pay to repair all the damage later. It requires careful, species-specific strategies, because the needs of wildlife vary greatly. Ignoring the necessity of protecting wildlife jeopardises ecosystems which underpin the economy.

    Effective conservation is not a barrier to development, but rather, key to a sustainable future, for people, nature and industries.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Eleanor Harrison is affiliated with Staffordshire Bat Group, who aid in bat conservation locally.

    – ref. Why bats need tunnels – https://theconversation.com/why-bats-need-tunnels-248782

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: DeepSeek claims to have cured AI’s environmental headache. The Jevons paradox suggests it might make things worse

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Peter Howson, Assistant Professor in International Development, Northumbria University, Newcastle

    William Stanley Jevons also invented an early computer. University of Manchester Libraries / wiki, CC BY-SA

    AI burns through a lot of resources. And thanks to a paradox first identified way back in the 1860s, even a more energy-efficient AI is likely to simply mean more energy is used in the long run.

    For most users, “large language models” such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT work like intuitive search engines. But unlike regular web-searches that find and retrieve data from anywhere along a global network of servers, AI models return data they’ve generated from scratch. Like powering up a nuclear reactor to use a calculator, this tailored process is very inefficient.

    One study suggests the AI industry will be consuming somewhere between 85 and 134 terrawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2027. That’s a similar amount of energy as the Netherlands consumes each year. One prominent researcher predicts that by 2030, over 20% of all electricity produced in the US will be feeding AI data centres (huge warehouses filled with computers).

    Big tech firms have always claimed to be heavy investors in wind and solar energy. But AI’s appetite for 24/7 power means most are developing their own nuclear options. Microsoft even plans to revive the infamous Three Mile Island power plant, scene of America’s worst ever civil nuclear accident.

    Despite Google’s ambitious target of being carbon neutral by 2030, the company’s AI developments mean its emissions have climbed 48% in the past few years. And the computing power needed to train these models increases tenfold each year.

    However, Chinese start-up DeepSeek claims to have created a fix: a model that matches the performance of established US rivals like OpenAI, but at a fraction of the cost and carbon footprint.

    An environmental game changer?

    DeepSeek has created a powerful open-source, relatively energy-lite model. The company claims it spent just US$6 million renting the hardware needed to train its new R1 model, compared with over $60 million for Meta’s Llama, which used 11 times the computing resources.

    DeepSeek uses a “mixture-of-experts” architecture, a machine-learning method that allows the model to scale up and down depending on the complexity of prompts. The company claims its model can also store more data and be trained without the need for huge amounts of expensive processor chips.

    Compared with its US rivals, DeepSeek promises to do more with less.
    Chitaika / shutterstock

    In reaction, US chip manufacturing and energy stocks plummeted following investor concerns that AI companies would rethink their energy-intensive data centre developments. As the world’s largest supplier of specialist AI processors, Nvidia saw its share price fall by US$589 billion, the biggest one-day loss in Wall Street history.

    Paradoxically, as well as upsetting the performance of US tech stocks, improving the energy efficiency of AI platforms could actually worsen the industry’s environmental performance as a whole.

    With tech stocks crashing, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella tried to bring a longer-term perspective: “Jevons paradox strikes again!” he posted on X. “As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can’t get enough of.”

    The Jevons paradox

    The idea that energy efficiency isn’t always a good thing for Earth’s resources has been around for well over a century. In 1865, a young Englishman named William Stanley Jevons wrote “The Coal Question”, a book in which he suggested that Britain’s place as an industrial superpower might soon come to an end, due to its rapidly depleting coal reserves.

    But to Jevons, frugality was not the solution. He argued: “It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth.”

    According to Jevons, any increase in resource efficiency generates an increase in long-term resource consumption, rather than a decrease. Because greater energy efficiency has the effect of reducing energy’s implicit price, it increases the rate of return – and demand.

    Jevons offered the example of the British iron industry. If technological advancements helped a blast furnace produce iron with less coal, profits would rise and new investment in iron production would be attracted. At the same time, falling prices would stimulate additional demand. He concluded: “The greater number of furnaces will more than make up for the diminished [coal] consumption of each.”

    More recently, the economist William Nordhaus applied this idea to the efficiency of lighting since the dawn of human civilisation. In a paper published in 1998, he concluded that in ancient Babylon, the average labourer might need to work more than 40 hours to purchase enough fuel to produce the equivalent amount of light emitted by a modern lightbulb for one hour. But by 1992, an average American would need to work for less than half a second to produce the same.

    Throughout time, efficiency gains haven’t reduced the energy we expend on lighting or shrunk our energy consumption. On the contrary, we now generate so much electric light that areas without it have become tourist attractions.

    Warming and lighting our homes efficiently, driving our cars, mining Bitcoin and, indeed, building AI models are all subject to the same so-called rebound effects identified in the Jevons paradox. And this is why it will be impossible to ensure a more efficient AI industry actually leads to an overall reduction in energy use.

    A Sputnik moment

    In the 1950s, the US was horrified when the Soviets launched Sputnik, the first space satellite. The emergence of a more efficient rival caused America to allocate more resources to the space race, not less.

    DeepSeek is Silicon Valley’s Sputnik moment. More efficient AI will probably mean more distributed and powerful models, in an arms race that is no longer made up only of US tech giants. AI offers superpower status, and the floodgates may now be fully open for the UK and other global competitors, as well as China.

    What’s for certain is that in the long term, the AI industry’s appetite for energy and other resources is only going to increase.

    Peter Howson has received research funding from the British Academy.

    – ref. DeepSeek claims to have cured AI’s environmental headache. The Jevons paradox suggests it might make things worse – https://theconversation.com/deepseek-claims-to-have-cured-ais-environmental-headache-the-jevons-paradox-suggests-it-might-make-things-worse-248720

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can aching joints really predict the weather? Exploring the science behind the stormy debate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michelle Spear, Professor of Anatomy, University of Bristol

    For centuries, people have claimed that their aching joints can predict changes in the weather, often reporting increased discomfort before rain or cold fronts. Given the scale and duration, there is a sense of legitimacy to these anecdotes – but this phenomenon remains scientifically contentious.

    From shifts in barometric pressure to temperature fluctuations, many theories attempt to explain how environmental factors might influence joint pain. But is there an anatomical basis for this claim, or is it simply an enduring weather-related myth? Are our joints any more reliable than the Met Office?

    At the heart of this debate lies barometric pressure, also known as atmospheric pressure – the force exerted by air molecules in the Earth’s atmosphere. While invisible, air has mass, and the “weight” pressing down on us fluctuates with altitude and weather systems.

    Higher barometric pressure often signals fair-weather conditions with clear skies and calm winds, whereas lower pressure typically precedes unsettled weather, such as cloudy skies, precipitation and humidity.

    Moveable joints are intricate structures cushioned by synovial fluid, the viscous liquid that lubricates joints, and encased in capsules rich in nerve endings. In healthy joints, these components should allow smooth, pain-free movement. However, when joints are compromised by cartilage damage (as in osteoarthritis) or inflammation (as in rheumatoid arthritis), even subtle changes in the environment may be acutely felt.

    One leading hypothesis suggests that changes in barometric pressure may directly influence joint discomfort. When atmospheric pressure drops ahead of storms, it can allow inflamed tissues within joints to expand slightly, increasing stress on surrounding nerves and amplifying pain. Conversely, rapid increases in pressure, characteristic of fair-weather systems, may compress already sensitive tissues, leading to discomfort in some people.

    Scientific studies offer some support for these claims, though results remain mixed. For instance, a 2007 study published in the American Journal of Medicine found a slight but significant correlation between dropping barometric pressure and increased knee pain in osteoarthritis patients. However, this pattern is not universally observed across all joint conditions.

    A 2011 systematic review in Arthritis Research & Therapy examined the relationship between weather and pain in rheumatoid arthritis patients. It revealed highly variable responses: while some people reported increased pain under low-pressure conditions, others noted no change. A few even experienced discomfort during high-pressure fronts.

    More recently, a [2019 citizen-science project] called Cloudy with a chance of pain used app-based pain tracking to explore this connection. The study found a modest association between falling pressure and heightened joint pain, but it also highlighted substantial individual differences in how people perceive weather-related pain.

    These findings suggest that while changes in barometric pressure may influence joint pain for some, responses are far from uniform and depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the individual’s underlying joint condition and overall pain sensitivity.

    Why responses differ

    Barometric pressure rarely acts in isolation. Fluctuations in temperature and humidity often accompany pressure changes, complicating the picture.

    Cold weather can have a pronounced effect on joints, particularly in people with existing joint conditions. Low temperatures cause muscles to contract and become stiffer, which can lead to reduced flexibility and a greater risk of strain or discomfort.

    Ligaments, which connect bones to one another, and tendons, which anchor muscles to bones, may also lose some of their elasticity in colder conditions. This decreased pliability can make joint movement feel more restricted and exacerbate pain in conditions like arthritis.

    Cold weather can also cause blood vessels to narrow — particularly in the extremities, as the body prioritises maintaining core temperature. This reduced blood flow can deprive affected areas of essential oxygen and nutrients, slowing the removal of metabolic waste products like lactic acid, which may accumulate in tissues and exacerbate inflammation and discomfort.

    For people with inflammatory conditions, the reduced circulation can aggravate swelling and stiffness, especially in small joints like those in the fingers and toes.

    Cold also slows the activity of synovial fluid. In lower temperatures, the fluid becomes less effective at reducing friction, which can heighten joint stiffness and make motion more painful, particularly for people with degenerative conditions such as osteoarthritis.

    Sudden temperature changes may also play a role. Rapid shifts can challenge the body’s ability to adapt, which might worsen pain in people with chronic conditions. Similarly, high humidity can intensify sensations of heat or dampness in already inflamed areas, further complicating the experience of pain.

    However, isolating a single variable – whether humidity, temperature or pressure –proves difficult because of the interplay of overlapping factors.

    Responses to weather also depend on individual factors, including the extent of joint damage, overall pain sensitivity and psychological expectations. This variability makes it difficult to link a single meteorological factor to a biological response.

    Still, the evidence suggests that people with joint conditions tend to be more attuned to environmental changes, particularly pressure fluctuations.

    While the relationship between weather and joint pain remains an imperfect science, the collective evidence indicates that there may be some truth to the age-old belief. For those with chronic joint conditions, shifts in barometric pressure and accompanying weather changes might indeed serve as nature’s warning system – albeit one that’s far from foolproof.

    Michelle Spear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can aching joints really predict the weather? Exploring the science behind the stormy debate – https://theconversation.com/can-aching-joints-really-predict-the-weather-exploring-the-science-behind-the-stormy-debate-247728

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: DeepSeek: what you need to know about the Chinese firm disrupting the AI landscape

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stuart Mills, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Leeds

    Before January 27 2025, it’s fair to say that Chinese tech company DeepSeek was flying under the radar. And then it came dramatically into view.

    Suddenly, everyone was talking about it – not least the shareholders and executives at US tech firms like Nvidia, Microsoft and Google, which all saw their company values tumble thanks to the success of this AI startup research lab.

    Founded by a successful Chinese hedge fund manager, the lab has taken a different approach to artificial intelligence. One of the major differences is cost.

    The development costs for Open AI’s ChatGPT-4 were said to be in excess of US$100 million (£81 million). DeepSeek’s R1 model – which is used to generate content, solve logic problems and create computer code – was reportedly made using much fewer, less powerful computer chips than the likes of GPT-4, resulting in costs claimed (but unverified) to be as low as US$6 million.

    This has both financial and geopolitical effects. China is subject to US sanctions on importing the most advanced computer chips. But the fact that a Chinese startup has been able to build such an advanced model raises questions about the effectiveness of these sanctions, and whether Chinese innovators can work around them.

    The timing of DeepSeek’s new release on January 20, as Donald Trump was being sworn in as president, signalled a challenge to US dominance in AI. Trump responded by describing the moment as a “wake-up call”.

    From a financial point of view, the most noticeable effect may be on consumers. Unlike rivals such as OpenAI, which recently began charging US$200 per month for access to their premium models, DeepSeek’s comparable tools are currently free. They are also “open source”, allowing anyone to poke around in the code and reconfigure things as they wish.

    Low costs of development and efficient use of hardware seem to have afforded DeepSeek this cost advantage, and have already forced some Chinese rivals to lower their prices. Consumers should anticipate lower costs from other AI services too.

    Artificial investment

    Longer term – which, in the AI industry, can still be remarkably soon – the success of DeepSeek could have a big impact on AI investment.

    This is because so far, almost all of the big AI companies – OpenAI, Meta, Google – have been struggling to commercialise their models and be profitable.

    Until now, this was not necessarily a problem. Companies like Twitter and Uber went years without making profits, prioritising a commanding market share (lots of users) instead.

    And companies like OpenAI have been doing the same. In exchange for continuous investment from hedge funds and other organisations, they promise to build even more powerful models.

    These models, the business pitch probably goes, will massively boost productivity and then profitability for businesses, which will end up happy to pay for AI products. In the mean time, all the tech companies need to do is collect more data, buy more powerful chips (and more of them), and develop their models for longer.

    But this costs a lot of money.

    Nvidia’s Blackwell chip – the world’s most powerful AI chip to date – costs around US$40,000 per unit, and AI companies often need tens of thousands of them. But up to now, AI companies haven’t really struggled to attract the necessary investment, even if the sums are huge.

    DeepSeek might change all this.

    By demonstrating that innovations with existing (and perhaps less advanced) hardware can achieve similar performance, it has given a warning that throwing money at AI is not guaranteed to pay off.

    For example, prior to January 20, it may have been assumed that the most advanced AI models require massive data centres and other infrastructure. This meant the likes of Google, Microsoft and OpenAI would face limited competition because of the high barriers (the vast expense) to enter this industry.

    Money worries

    But if those barriers to entry are much lower than everyone thinks – as DeepSeek’s success suggests – then many massive AI investments suddenly look a lot riskier. Hence the abrupt effect on big tech share prices.

    Shares in chipmaker Nvidia fell by around 17% and ASML, which creates the machines needed to manufacture advanced chips, also saw its share price fall. (While there has been a slight bounceback in Nvidia’s stock price, it appears to have settled below its previous highs, reflecting a new market reality.)

    Nvidia and ASML are “pick-and-shovel” companies that make the tools necessary to create a product, rather than the product itself. (The term comes from the idea that in a goldrush, the only person guaranteed to make money is the one selling the picks and shovels.)

    The “shovels” they sell are chips and chip-making equipment. The fall in their share prices came from the sense that if DeepSeek’s much cheaper approach works, the billions of dollars of future sales that investors have priced into these companies may not materialise.

    ‘When we find some gold we can invest in AI.’
    Everett Collection/Shutterstock

    For the likes of Microsoft, Google and Meta (OpenAI is not publicly traded), the cost of building advanced AI may now have fallen, meaning these firms will have to spend less to remain competitive. That, for them, could be a good thing.

    But there is now doubt as to whether these companies can successfully monetise their AI programmes.

    US stocks make up a historically large percentage of global investment right now, and technology companies make up a historically large percentage of the value of the US stock market. Losses in this industry might force investors to sell off other investments to cover their losses in tech, leading to a whole-market downturn.

    And it shouldn’t have come as a surprise. In 2023, a leaked Google memo warned that the AI industry was exposed to outsider disruption. The memo argued that AI companies “had no moat” – no protection – against rival models. DeepSeek’s success may be the proof that this is true.

    Richard Whittle receives funding from the ESRC, Research England and was the recipient of a CAPE Fellowship.

    Stuart Mills does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. DeepSeek: what you need to know about the Chinese firm disrupting the AI landscape – https://theconversation.com/deepseek-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-chinese-firm-disrupting-the-ai-landscape-248621

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Exploring bacopa: the science behind the latest brain health trend

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Goodwin, Professor in the Physiology of Ageing, Loughborough University

    Koldunov/Shutterstock

    As I’ve grown older and experienced the vagaries of my ageing memory, I’ve often reflected on the possibility of a miracle cure that would rejuvenate it. As if in answer to my wishful thinking, not one but several reports recently appeared simultaneously in the scientific news, highlighting a trending solution of which I was blissfully unaware.

    A welter of articles – The Times of India, MSN, New York Post and others – spoke of an Indian herb called bacopa, or to give it its full botanical name, Bacopa monnieri, an aquatic flower. This wave of publicity resulted in a massive spike in interest: 2,000 monthly searches on Google and a weekly average of 13,000 views on TikTok.

    The reason for its global popularity? A new study which concluded that ingesting bacopa brought significant improvements in both memory and cognition skills (concentration, alertness, reasoning and mental flexibility).

    All types of memory were improved – short-term memory (verbal and spatial), working memory and episodic memory (memory of everyday events).

    The researchers also reported other brain health-related benefits. Anxiety and cortisol levels in the blood were significantly reduced, and sleep quality and serum BDNF were increased by taking a bacopa supplement (BDNF is a naturally produced protein in the brain that stimulates the production of new brain cells in every decade of our life). If I had wanted a miracle, perhaps I had found it.

    But one swallow doesn’t make a summer. And neither should a single study set a law in stone.

    So, curious as to the weight of evidence, I delved deeper. My search led me to a surprising source – Ayurvedic medicine.

    Over many thousands of years, this traditional Indian medical system has expounded the benefits of bacopa. Bacopa is a medhya rasayana, meaning a class of herbs believed to improve mental health, memory and intellect, and promote rejuvenation and longevity.

    It would be true to say that millions of people over the centuries have relied on this supplement for health and mental health benefits. However, history and tradition teach us many things, but not all of them are true. And, therefore, I asked myself: what of the scientific evidence?

    One of the earliest papers on the effects of taking bacopa was in 2008. And though, over the years, it stimulated several more studies favourable to the use of bacopa, the picture of its effectiveness is mixed.

    It’s true to say that most of the papers – many of them using the gold standard method of a randomised controlled trial – find that bacopa is positive for improved memory and reduced anxiety. And there is a biological explanation.

    Bacopa extract contains many potent substances called “bacosides” that have, among other effects, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and anxiolytic (anxiety-reducing) properties. But by no means do all studies show that bacopa improves memory and anxiety. In fact, in 2021 a review of bacopa research stated that there are only limited studies (six to date) to establish the memory-enhancing and brain-protecting effects of bacopa.

    Safety

    Then I asked myself, is it safe? I turned to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). If there is an issue with safety and side-effects, the FDA would know.

    The FDA has not approved bacopa as a drug and therefore has not made any statements as to its safety or efficacy. However, the way in which a supplement is marketed can lead to the FDA categorising it as a drug. For example, in 2024, a US company selling veterinary products was censured because their marketing of one of them intended it to be used in the cure of chronic seizures and epilepsy in dogs.

    The FDA can investigate, censor or fine – without limit – any company which says that its supplement acts like a drug by implying it can be used to prevent, mitigate, treat or cure any illness.

    There is a very fine line here. For example, marketing such as, “the control of blood pressure” may lead to a US federal investigation. A company in Houston, Texas, making medical claims for bacopa was given 15 days in a warning letter by the FDA to correct their marketing or face sanctions including fines.

    The FDA states: “Dietary supplements are regulated by the FDA as food, not as drugs. However, many dietary supplements contain ingredients that have strong biological effects which may conflict with a medicine you are taking or a medical condition you may have.”

    Such effects are known in bacopa because it inhibits an important brain chemical called acetylcholine and therefore could counteract cholinergic drugs for conditions such as dementia, glaucoma and urinary retention.

    It is generally safe for most people, but is inadvisable where there are thyroid conditions, asthma, COPD, genital problems, stomach ulcers or if pregnant.

    What are we to make of all this? All that glisters is not gold. And the wisdom of the ages is not irrevocable. There may be a frenzy of popularity in the media but that makes bacopa neither effective nor safe.

    The moral here is that before spending your hard-earned money on a promising product that has been seized upon by millions, you should pause, read, research, think and then, based on real evidence, commit – one way or the other. After all, since the days of Newton, science has served us pretty well.

    James Goodwin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Exploring bacopa: the science behind the latest brain health trend – https://theconversation.com/exploring-bacopa-the-science-behind-the-latest-brain-health-trend-247154

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Marianne Faithfull: the singer with an inimitable voice was a Romantic poet at heart

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephanie Hernandez, PhD Candidate, Literature and Music, University of Liverpool

    Marianne Faithfull, the London-born singer with an inimitable voice, has passed away at the age of 78. She was known for many things: she was a pop star, an actress and a muse. But she was probably best known for her voice.

    When she first entered the world of pop in 1964, her high-pitched tones rang with mellifluous vibrato. As she grew older and lived an increasingly excessive lifestyle, she developed a rasp – a quality borne of her unique experiences.

    Faithfull’s final musical releases were works that incorporated Romantic poetry in different ways. She Walks in Beauty (2021) is a spoken-word album of canonical Romantic poetry by the likes of Lord Byron, Percy Shelley and John Keats. Songs of Innocence and Experience 1965-1995 (2022) is a chronological retrospective of her career which uses the name of William Blake’s poetry collection (1789) as its title.

    As a PhD student focused on the legacy of Romanticism in 1960s and 1970s popular music, I’ve closely examined Faithfull’s engagement with Romantic literature throughout her career. These final two albums represent a beautiful culmination of her artistic journey, and are a testament to her unique voice and strong poetic influences.

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    Songs of Innocence and Experience 1965-1995, like Blake’s poetry collection, is broken up into the sections Innocence and Experience.

    The Innocence portion of the album covers Faithfull’s youth, featuring early hits such as This Little Bird. Her early sound incorporated baroque pop instrumentation, including harps, harpsichord and horn arrangements (Come and Stay with Me), as well as folk styles with the acoustic guitar at the centre of the sound (Cockleshells).

    Faithfull’s voice in this section portrays her as an “innocent” girl in pop stardom, as its high pitch and pure tone embody a sense of naivete that is also reflected in her lyrics about young love, such as in Come and Stay With Me:

    We’ll live a life no one has ever known
    But I know you’re thinking that I’m hardly grown
    But oh thank God, at last and finally
    I can see you’re gonna stay with me

    There is a noticeable shift in the Innocence section of the album with the song Sister Morphine. As the song was made in collaboration with her then-boyfriend, Mick Jagger, it features a noticeably more rock sound in contrast to her previous pop productions. You can also hear subtle changes in Faithfull’s voice: it cracks and sounds strained in places.

    The song’s lyrics (“Please, Sister Morphine, turn my nightmares into dreams”) reflect the darker side of the mythologised “swinging sixties” lifestyle and its drug culture, which Faithfull has come to symbolise.

    Blake’s Songs of Innocence features a piper as the presiding narrator over the poems. In contrast, Songs of Experience is meant to be heard through the voice of an ancient bard, as established in Introduction to the Songs of Experience:

    Hear the voice of the Bard!
    Who Present, Past, & Future sees
    Whose ears have heard,
    The Holy Word
    That walk’d among the ancient trees.

    The Experience section of Faithfull’s album features music from Broken English (1979) and her re-recording of As Tears Go By, from Strange Weather (1987). The songs in this portion of the album exhibit her completely transformed voice: from piper to bard, it is deeper, raw and more weathered as a result of her struggles with addiction and bouts of illness. This brought a distinct edge to her music, marking a new phase in her career.

    Beyond the qualities of her voice, Faithfull’s song selection reflects Blake’s notions of Experience. Strange Weather (“Will you take me across the Channel / London Bridge is falling down”) aligns with Blake’s London geographically and thematically, as both explore entrapment and decay. Faithfull’s depiction of societal monotony, as in “Strangers talk only about the weather / All over the world / It’s the same …” echo Blake’s “charter’d street(s)” and “mind-forg’d manacles”.

    Faithfull’s connection to Romantic poetry is most overt in She Walks in Beauty, which she made with Warren Ellis (Australian composer and member of Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds). In this album, she recites Romantic poetry set to Ellis’s music.

    The poems she selected to recite are all by male poets and many feature voiceless female subjects, such as Byron’s She Walks in Beauty or Thomas Hood’s The Bridge of Sighs. On the album’s liner notes, Faithfull described how she related with these women, particularly Alfred, Lord Tennyson’s Lady of Shalott.

    The Lady of Shalott is a woman cursed to live alone in a tower near Camelot – unable to look directly at the world, forced to weave what she sees in the mirror. Faithfull uses the Lady to reflect on the pressure she felt to conform to the expectations imposed on her by the press and music industry. There is a parallel between the Lady’s forced isolation and her struggles with being controlled and defined by external forces, as she explained:

    Do I identify with the Lady? Oh yeah, always. I’m nothing like the Lady of Shalott, but I guess I wanted to be … When Mick Jagger wrote the lyrics for As Tears Go By, he knew this poem. There’s a bit he always said he used from here, the thing about ‘it was the closing of the day’.

    In the liner notes, Faithfull also mentioned that her love of poetry was thanks to her English teacher at St Joseph’s Convent in Reading, Mrs Simpson, and to Palgrave’s Golden Treasury, an anthology of English poetry, which she had bought as a teenager.

    Faithfull’s lifelong interest in literature came to fruition in her two final projects. They exemplify how she was a pop star, muse and chanteuse – and also a Romantic.

    Stephanie Hernandez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Marianne Faithfull: the singer with an inimitable voice was a Romantic poet at heart – https://theconversation.com/marianne-faithfull-the-singer-with-an-inimitable-voice-was-a-romantic-poet-at-heart-248805

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How should Keir Starmer handle Donald Trump – and how’s it going so far?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martin Farr, Senior Lecturer in Contemporary British History, Newcastle University

    The pairing of British prime minister Keir Starmer and US president Donald Trump connotes many imponderables. The only certainty happens to be the most significant: they will be in office together for four years.

    It is rare for a prime minister and a president to have the luxury of knowing – barring extreme unpredictabilities, such as death or incapacity – they have a full term in harness. And personal chemistry matters.

    Trump emphasises (rather too much for the liking of America’s allies) the deal, the handshake, the gaze; the bond that only the lonely, only those who lead, can have. Starmer emphasises level-headedness (although his government has not been particulary conspicuous in evincing it).

    Opposites may well attract, but the precedents for coterminous presidents and prime ministers are not encouraging. John Major and Bill Clinton, elected seven months apart, spent 1992 to 1997 together. But in the very definition of what not to do before an election, London had made its preference for the result of the election in America known – and the other guy won. The Conservative and the Democrat were no more than coolly cordial thereafter.

    On his re-election in 2001, Tony Blair knew he had George W. Bush for at least four years – it turned out to be eight – but the consequences for him were disastrous once the two decided to partake in a war on “terror”.

    In 1964, Harold Wilson and Lyndon Johnson were elected almost simultaneously, and spent 1964 to 1968 together. Though they were Labour and Democrat, and therefore from sister parties, it was not a harmonious pairing. Wilson’s meddling in, but lack of support for, Johnson’s war in Vietnam was a source of unbridled irritation in the White House.

    Trump and May

    The last time Trump became president, Theresa May was prime minister and she travelled with undisguised haste to the White House. There she achieved a highly untypical diplomatic coup in getting Trump to commit publicly to Nato (that bars should be so low was a general feature of the presidency).

    Their subsequent relationship was, however, toxic. No prime minister has been less likely to gaze, to bond (despite pictures of them holding hands), and the president held her as having mangled Brexit, a bid for freedom with which he was keen to associate himself.

    Before the US election, Starmer displayed a unfamiliar deftness of touch, and banked some credit. His immediate phone call to candidate Trump following an attempt on his life in July was both bold and smart. There followed the fabled Trump Tower two-hour chicken dinner.

    It was more typical for Starmer that when it emerged, in a most unfortunate echo of 1992, Labour activists – and Starmer’s own pollster – were working on the Kamala Harris campaign, Trump’s people cried foreign interference and threatened legal action.

    And the two in Starmer’s team who will have the most exposure to the new administration have both been publicly rude about Trump. David Lammy, now foreign secretary, called him “deluded, dishonest, xenophobic [and] narcissistic” in 2019.

    Peter Mandelson, nominated but not yet confirmed as the UK ambassador to the US, has made comments about Trump being a “bully” and a “danger to the world”. To appease opposition in DC on his appointment, Mandelson has since turned on a sixpence (or perhaps a dime).

    This is, at root, about Trump. No other president would have attracted such comments from frontline politicians. But from TV studio to TV studio, Lammy and Mandelson will have those quotes hung about their necks as if they were modern-day ancient mariners. Starmer’s innate caution in public utterance, in this area at least, has inured him.

    Indeed, the repercussions of his unusual boldness in picking Mandelson over a career diplomat may discourage Starmer from ever thinking imaginatively again.

    Most members of the Trump administration would be naturally hostile to a Labour government even without its leading figures insulting their boss or campaigning for his opponent. Certainly, the grounds for disagreement are great: the threat of tariffs, demanded increases in defence spending, the sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, co-operation with China and support for Ukraine.

    Thus Morgan McSweeney – architect of Labour’s 2024 victory, planner of its re-election and Starmer’s chief of staff – flew out to meet Susie Wiles, his equivalent in the White House. (It did not, a person privy to such information told me, go well. Voices were raised.)

    Elon Musk, this moment’s most prominent presidential acolyte inveighed on X, “Starmer must go”, adding for good measure, “He is a national embarrassment.” It is indeed embarrassing – for Starmer – but he will be consoled with the well-founded suspicion that the life-expectancy of Musk and Trump’s tech bromance will be much less than four years.

    Cause for self-reflection

    The return of Trump, emboldened and more powerful than before, has effectively forced the posing of the age-old question: over which expanse of sea should Britain gaze – the Channel or the Atlantic? Churchill thought it should – and that only Britain could – do both.

    Hence, perhaps, Trump’s own public statement about the possible destination of his first international trip: “It could be UK. Traditionally, it’s been UK.”

    It hasn’t. Only Jimmy Carter, in 1977, and Joe Biden, in 2021, visited the UK first – and then because of summits. More than a few presidents (most recently Ford and Johnson) didn’t visit at all.

    But even what might have been a supportive comment was laced with arsenic: “Last time, I went to Saudi Arabia because they agreed to buy 450 billion dollars’ worth of United States merchandise … And if that offer were right, I’d do that again.” Which at least may free the British government to be as unsentimentally transactional.

    Trump and Starmer achieved big victories, albeit when painted in the most flattering terms. Starmer’s came on a historically low combination of vote share and voter turnout, Trump’s with fewer votes than Biden. But Trump will like that Starmer won a large majority. When May managed to lose hers in 2017, what little respect Trump had for her went with it.

    Starmer would much rather have had four years with Biden, and even more with Harris, another public prosecutor of the left. But he has to deal with the transatlantic relationship as it is, rather than as he would wish it to be, and this one is most unlikely to be special.

    Starmer is, moreover, a realist. Which is why he’ll also know that the second Trump presidency will be much more consequential than the first. Caution may have limited effect.

    Martin Farr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How should Keir Starmer handle Donald Trump – and how’s it going so far? – https://theconversation.com/how-should-keir-starmer-handle-donald-trump-and-hows-it-going-so-far-248697

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Property and sovereignty in space − as countries and companies take to the stars, they could run into disputes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Wayne N White Jr, Adjunct Professor of Aviation and Space Law, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

    As travel to the Moon grows more accessible, countries may have to navigate territorial disputes. Neil A. Armstrong/NASA via AP

    Private citizens and companies may one day begin to permanently settle outer space and celestial bodies. But if we don’t enact governing laws in the meantime, space settlers may face legal chaos.

    Many wars on Earth start over territorial disputes. In order to avoid such disputes in outer space, nations should consider enacting national laws that specify the extent of each settler’s authority in outer space and provide a process to resolve conflicts.

    I have been researching and writing about space law for over 40 years. Through my work, I’ve studied ways to avoid war and resolve disputes in space.

    Property in space

    Space is an international area, and companies and individuals are free to land their space objects – including satellites, human-crewed and robotic spacecraft and human-inhabited facilities – on celestial bodies and conduct operations anywhere they please. This includes both outer space and celestial bodies such as the Moon.

    Space objects include landers, rovers, satellites and other objects on the surface of or in orbit around a celestial body.
    Stocktrek Images/Stocktrek Images via Getty Images

    The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits territorial claims in outer space and on celestial bodies in order to avoid disputes. But without national laws governing space settlers, a nation might attempt to protect its citizens’ and companies’ interests by withdrawing from the treaty. They could then claim the territory where its citizens have placed their space objects.

    Nations enforce territorial claims through military force, which would likely cost money and lives. An alternative to territorial claims, which I’ve been investigating and have come to prefer, would be to enact real property rights that are consistent with the Outer Space Treaty.

    Territorial claims can be asserted only by national governments, while property rights apply to private citizens, companies and national governments that own property. A property rights law could specify how much authority settlers have and protect their investments in outer space and on celestial bodies.

    The Outer Space Treaty

    In 1967, the Outer Space Treaty went into effect. As of January 2025, 115 countries are party to this treaty, including the United States and most nations that have a space program.

    The Outer Space Treaty is the main international agreement governing outer space. However, it is not self-executing.

    The Outer Space Treaty outlines principles for the peaceful exploration and use of outer space and celestial bodies. However, the treaty does not specify how it will apply to the citizens and companies of nations that are parties to the treaty.

    For this reason, the Outer Space Treaty is largely not a self-executing treaty. This means U.S. courts cannot apply the terms of the treaty to individual citizens and companies. For that to happen, the United States would need to enact national legislation that explains how the terms of the treaty apply to nongovernmental entities.

    One article of the Outer Space Treaty says that participating countries should make sure that all of their citizens’ space activities comply with the treaty’s terms. Another article then gives these nations the authority to enact laws governing their citizens’ and companies’ private space activities.

    This is particularly relevant to the U.S., where commercial activity in space is rapidly increasing.

    UN Charter

    It is important to note that the Outer Space Treaty requires participating nations to comply with international law and the United Nations Charter.

    In the U.N. Charter, there are two international law concepts that are relevant to property rights. One is a country’s right to defend itself, and the other is the noninterference principle.

    The international law principle of noninterference gives nations the right to exclude others from their space objects and the areas where they have ongoing activity.

    But how will nations apply this concept to their private citizens and companies? Do individual people and companies have the right to exclude others in order to prevent interference with their activities? What can they do if a foreign person interferes or causes damage?

    The noninterference principle in the U.N. Charter governs relations between nations, not individuals. Consequently, U.S. courts likely wouldn’t enforce the noninterference principle in a case involving two private parties.

    So, U.S. citizens and companies do not have the right to exclude others from their space objects and areas of ongoing activity unless the U.S. enacts legislation giving them that right.

    US laws and regulations

    The United States has recognized the need for more specific laws to govern private space activities. It has sought international support for this effort through the nonbinding Artemis Accords.

    The Artemis Accords outline a framework for the peaceful exploration of outer space.
    Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

    As of January 2025, 50 nations have signed the Artemis Accords.

    The accords explain how important components of the Outer Space Treaty will apply to private space activities. One section of the accords allows for safety zones, where public and private personnel, equipment and operations are protected from harmful interference by other people. The rights to self-defense and noninterference from the U.N. Charter provide a legal basis for safety zones.

    Aside from satellite and rocket-launch regulations, the United States has enacted only a few laws – including the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act of 2015 – to govern private activities in outer space and on celestial bodies.

    As part of this act, any U.S. citizen collecting mineral resources in outer space or on celestial bodies has a right to own, transport, use and sell those resources. This act is an example of national legislation that clarifies how the Outer Space Treaty applies to U.S. citizens and companies.

    Property rights

    Enacting property rights for outer space would make it clear what rights and obligations property owners have and the extent of their authority over their property.

    All nations on Earth have a form of property rights in their legal systems. Property rights typically include the rights to possess, control, develop, exclude, enjoy, sell, lease and mortgage properties. Enacting real property rights in space would create a marketplace for buying, selling, renting and mortgaging property.

    Because the Outer Space Treaty prohibits territorial claims, space property rights would not necessarily be “land grabs.” Property rights would operate a little differently in space than on Earth.

    Property rights in space would have to be based on the authority that the Outer Space Treaty gives to nations. This authority allows them to govern their citizens and their assets by enacting laws and enforcing them in their courts.

    Space property rights would include safety zones around property to prevent interference. So, people would have to get the property owner’s permission before entering a safety zone.

    If a U.S. property owner were to sell a space property to a foreign citizen or company, the space objects on the property would have to stay on the property or be replaced with the purchaser’s space objects. That would ensure that the owner’s country still has authority over the property.

    Also, if someone transferred their space objects to a foreign citizen or company, the buyer would have to change their objects’ international registration, which would give the buyer’s nation authority over the space objects and the surrounding property.

    Nations could likely avoid some territorial disputes if they enact real property laws in space that clearly describe how national authority over property changes when it is sold. Enacting property rights could reduce the legal risks for commercial space companies and support the permanent settlement of outer space and celestial bodies.

    U.S. property rights law could also contain a reciprocity provision, which would encourage other nations to pass similar laws and allow participating countries to mutually recognize each other’s property rights.

    With a reciprocity provision, property rights could support economic development as commercial companies around the world begin to look to outer space as the next big area of economic growth.

    Wayne N White Jr consults with One Space Technologies Inc. He is a member and former Director of The National Space Society and an Associate Fellow of AIAA.

    – ref. Property and sovereignty in space − as countries and companies take to the stars, they could run into disputes – https://theconversation.com/property-and-sovereignty-in-space-as-countries-and-companies-take-to-the-stars-they-could-run-into-disputes-245334

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bogus scientific papers are enriching fraudsters and slowing lifesaving medical research

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Frederik Joelving, Contributing editor, Retraction Watch

    Assistant professor Frank Cackowski, left, and researcher Steven Zielske at Wayne State University in Detroit became suspicious of a paper on cancer research that was eventually retracted. Amy Sacka, CC BY-ND

    Over the past decade, furtive commercial entities around the world have industrialized the production, sale and dissemination of bogus scholarly research. These paper mills are profiting by undermining the literature that everyone from doctors to engineers rely on to make decisions about human lives.

    It is exceedingly difficult to get a handle on exactly how big the problem is. About 55,000 scholarly papers have been retracted to date, for a variety of reasons, but scientists and companies who screen the scientific literature for telltale signs of fraud estimate that there are many more fake papers circulating – possibly as many as several hundred thousand. This fake research can confound legitimate researchers who must wade through dense equations, evidence, images and methodologies, only to find that they were made up.

    Even when bogus papers are spotted – usually by amateur sleuths on their own time – academic journals are often slow to retract the papers, allowing the articles to taint what many consider sacrosanct: the vast global library of scholarly work that introduces new ideas, reviews and other research and discusses findings.

    These fake papers are slowing research that has helped millions of people with lifesaving medicine and therapies, from cancer to COVID-19. Analysts’ data shows that fields related to cancer and medicine are particularly hard-hit, while areas such as philosophy and art are less affected.

    To better understand the scope, ramifications and potential solutions of this metastasizing assault on science, we – a contributing editor at Retraction Watch, a website that reports on retractions of scientific papers and related topics, and two computer scientists at France’s Université Toulouse III–Paul Sabatier and Université Grenoble Alpes who specialize in detecting bogus publications – spent six months investigating paper mills.

    Co-author Guillaume Cabanac also developed the Problematic Paper Screener, which filters 130 million new and old scholarly papers every week looking for nine types of clues that a paper might be fake or contain errors.

    An obscure molecule

    Frank Cackowski at Detroit’s Wayne State University was confused.

    The oncologist was studying a sequence of chemical reactions in cells to see whether they could be a target for drugs against prostate cancer. A paper from 2018 in the American Journal of Cancer Research piqued his interest when he read that a little-known molecule called SNHG1 might interact with the chemical reactions he was exploring. He and fellow Wayne State researcher Steven Zielske began experiments but found no link.

    Meanwhile, Zielske had grown suspicious of the paper. Two graphs showing results for different cell lines were identical, he noticed, which “would be like pouring water into two glasses with your eyes closed and the levels coming out exactly the same.” Another graph and a table in the article also inexplicably contained identical data.

    Zielske described his misgivings in an anonymous post in 2020 at PubPeer, an online forum where many scientists report potential research misconduct, and also contacted the journal’s editor. The journal pulled the paper, citing “falsified materials and/or data.”

    “Science is hard enough as it is if people are actually being genuine and trying to do real work,” said Cackowski, who also works at the Karmanos Cancer Institute in Michigan.

    Wayne State scientists Cackowsi and Zielske carried out experiments based on a paper they later found to contain false data.
    Amy Sacka, CC BY-ND

    Legitimate academic journals evaluate papers before publication by having other researchers in the field carefully read them over. But this peer review process is far from perfect. Reviewers volunteer their time, typically assume research is real and so don’t look for fraud.

    Some publishers may try to pick reviewers they deem more likely to accept papers, because rejecting a manuscript can mean losing out on thousands of dollars in publication fees.

    Worse, some corrupt scientists form peer review rings. Paper mills may create fake peer reviewers. Others may bribe editors or plant agents on journal editorial boards.

    An ‘absolutely huge’ problem

    It’s unclear when paper mills began to operate at scale. The earliest suspected paper mill article retracted was published in 2004, according to the Retraction Watch database, which details retractions and is operated by The Center for Scientific Integrity, the parent nonprofit of Retraction Watch.

    An analysis of 53,000 papers submitted to six publishers – but not necessarily published – found 2% to 46% suspect submissions across journals. The American publisher Wiley, which has retracted more than 11,300 articles and closed 19 heavily affected journals in its erstwhile Hindawi division, said its new paper mill detection tool flags up to 1 in 7 submissions.

    As many as 2% of the several million scientific works published in 2022 were milled, according to Adam Day, who directs Clear Skies, a company in London that develops tools to spot fake papers. Some fields are worse than others: biology and medicine are closer to 3%, and some subfields, such as cancer, may be much larger, Day said.

    The paper mill problem is “absolutely huge,” said Sabina Alam, director of Publishing Ethics and Integrity at Taylor & Francis, a major academic publisher. In 2019, none of the 175 ethics cases escalated to her team was about paper mills, Alam said. Ethics cases include submissions and already published papers. “We had almost 4,000 cases” in 2023, she said. “And half of those were paper mills.”

    Jennifer Byrne, an Australian scientist who now heads up a research group to improve the reliability of medical research, testified at a July 2022 U.S. House of Representatives hearing that nearly 6% of 12,000 cancer research papers screened had errors that could signal paper mill involvement. Byrne shuttered her cancer research lab in 2017 because genes she had spent two decades researching and writing about became the target of fake papers.

    In 2022, Byrne and colleagues, including two of us, found that suspect genetics research, despite not immediately affecting patient care, informs scientists’ work, including clinical trials. But publishers are often slow to retract tainted papers, even when alerted to obvious fraud. We found that 97% of the 712 problematic genetics research articles we identified remained uncorrected.

    Potential solutions

    The Cochrane Collaboration has a policy excluding suspect studies from its analyses of medical evidence and is developing a tool to spot problematic medical trials. And publishers have begun to share data and technologies among themselves to combat fraud, including image fraud.

    Technology startups are also offering help. The website Argos, launched in September 2024 by Scitility, an alert service based in Sparks, Nevada, allows authors to check collaborators for retractions or misconduct. Morressier, a scientific conference and communications company in Berlin, offers research integrity tools. Paper-checking tools include Signals, by London-based Research Signals, and Clear Skies’ Papermill Alarm.

    But Alam acknowledges that the fight against paper mills won’t be won as long as the booming demand for papers remains.

    Today’s commercial publishing is part of the problem, Byrne said. Cleaning up the literature is a vast and expensive undertaking. “Either we have to monetize corrections such that publishers are paid for their work, or forget the publishers and do it ourselves,” she said.

    There’s a fundamental bias in for-profit publishing: “We pay them for accepting papers,” said Bodo Stern, a former editor of the journal Cell and chief of Strategic Initiatives at Howard Hughes Medical Institute, a nonprofit research organization and funder in Chevy Chase, Maryland. With more than 50,000 journals on the market, bad papers shopped around long enough eventually find a home, Stern said.

    To prevent this, we could stop paying journals for accepting papers and look at them as public utilities that serve a greater good. “We should pay for transparent and rigorous quality-control mechanisms,” he said.

    Peer review, meanwhile, “should be recognized as a true scholarly product, just like the original article,” Stern said. And journals should make all peer-review reports publicly available, even for manuscripts they turn down.

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. This is a condensed version. To learn more about how fraudsters around the globe use paper mills to enrich themselves and harm scientific research, read the full version.

    Labbé receives funding from the European Research Council.
    He has also received funding from the French National Research Agency (ANR), and the U.S. Office of Research Integrity.
    Labbé has been in touch with most of the major publishers and their integrity officers, offering pro-bono consulting regarding detection tools to various actors in the field including STM-Hub and Morressier.

    Cabanac receives funding from the European Research Council (ERC) and the Institut Universitaire de France (IUF). He is the administrator of the Problematic Paper Screener, a public platform that uses metadata from Digital Science and PubPeer via no-cost agreements. Cabanac has been in touch with most of the major publishers and their integrity officers, offering pro bono consulting regarding detection tools to various actors in the field including ClearSkies, Morressier, River Valley, Signals, and STM.

    Frederik Joelving does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bogus scientific papers are enriching fraudsters and slowing lifesaving medical research – https://theconversation.com/bogus-scientific-papers-are-enriching-fraudsters-and-slowing-lifesaving-medical-research-248291

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What happened in the German parliament and why is the far right hailing it as a ‘historic’ moment?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ed Turner, Reader in Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University

    A vote in Germany’s national parliament (Bundestag) has led to fears that the firewall supposedly separating mainstream political parties and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been blown apart.

    Until now, Germany’s largest parties, including the union of Christian democratic parties the CDU and CSU, and the social democrat SPD, have ruled out any form of cooperation with the AfD. Friedrich Merz, CDU leader and most likely chancellor following the election to be held on February 23, had previously said that decisions in the Bundestag should not be passed if they relied on AfD votes.

    And while Merz’s commitment to the firewall had occasionally wavered in some interviews, the CDU had resisted any temptation to do deals with the AfD nationally or in state parliaments. There is some cooperation on a local level, but beyond a vote on local taxation in Thuringia in 2023, mainstream parties have eschewed any hint of state or national level cooperation.

    That has now changed. Apparently in response to the AfD’s promising polling ahead of the election on February 23, the CDU has tacked dramatically to the right on immigration policy. Merz introduced a five-point plan into the Bundestag proposing a significant tightening of Germany’s immigration system.

    Most radical among the proposals is the reintroduction of border controls at German borders and for migrants without permission to reside in Germany to be turned back. These measures would be questionable, at best, in their conformity with European law.

    Merz made it plain he would put this plan to a vote, even if it could pass only with AfD support. This it did, by 348 to 345. The CDU and its sister party the CSU voted in favour, alongside the AfD and the Free Democratic Party (barring a handful of rebels). The SPD, Greens and Left party voted against while the anti-immigration “left populist” Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance abstained.

    This was not a binding vote but Merz can now push for a more formal process to make his five-point plan law. It is also highly symbolic.

    The AfD was gleeful, hailing a “turning point”, or Zeitenwende, in migration policy. It celebrated the “fall of the firewall” and a “great day for democracy”. The SPD and Greens were furious, with outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz accusing Merz of breaking his word – and breaking with the tradition of former chancellors from Konrad Adenauer to Angela Merkel by relying on votes from the far right. Merkel subsequently underlined Scholz’s point by criticising Merz’s move.

    The Greens talked of a “dark day for our democracy”. A Left Party parliamentarian called out “to the barricades”, and some spontaneous demonstrations occurred around the country. Merz said he “regretted” that the vote had only been possible with AfD support but added that “doing the right thing does not become wrong when the wrong people – the AfD – vote for it”.

    An election ahead

    Merz’s changed position on immigration and the AfD has come a few weeks ahead of an election that had initially got off to a slow start. The campaign is now suddenly polarised and angry on all sides.

    The election is being held because the three-party governing coalition of social democratic SPD, Greens and liberal FDP collapsed in November over disputes on fiscal policy. Opinion polls have been quite stable, showing the CDU/CSU leading. However, Merz’s party would need a coalition partner.

    The AfD has been consistently in second place but the firewall would prevent a coalition. This helps explain why reactions to the Bundestag vote have been so fierce.

    And while the government collapsed because of disagreements over the economy, several high-profile stabbings by migrants have turned this into an election about immigration. Indeed, migration, asylum and security questions are now right at the top of the list of voters’ concerns.

    The AfD has the wind in its sails and is basking in the glow of Elon Musk’s noisy endorsements. It has adopted an even more hardline manifesto than its previous offerings, proposing “remigration” as a policy – code for removing legal migrants who are no longer welcome.

    However, it is important to note that with this vote, Merz has not declared open season for a coalition with the AfD. And if a coalition was formed with the SPD or Greens, there is no way it would survive Merz turning to the AfD for support on issues where the coalition partner disagreed.

    Scholz has warned of the risk of events similar to Austria, where the CDU/CSU’s sister party, the ÖVP, initially ruled out going into government with the far-right FPÖ but changed its stance when negotiations with mainstream parties failed. Merz insists this won’t happen but moderate CDU/CSU voters may heed Scholz’s warnings and look elsewhere. Merz’s gamble is that such losses would be offset by voters who support a harder line on migration – and even that he will win voters back from the AfD.

    These events highlight the debate being had ever more often across Europe. Are far-right parties weakened if their positions are, to a degree, accommodated by the political mainstream? Or does this in fact strengthen and embolden them?

    That debate will continue but there are more immediate consequences in the wake of the Bundestag vote. Germany’s neighbours will look on uneasily, both because of the febrile political atmosphere in the largest EU member state at a time of substantial geopolitical pressure and because, if Germany were to be found to have set aside European law, that could trigger a total unravelling.

    Ed Turner receives funding from the German Academic Exchange Service.

    – ref. What happened in the German parliament and why is the far right hailing it as a ‘historic’ moment? – https://theconversation.com/what-happened-in-the-german-parliament-and-why-is-the-far-right-hailing-it-as-a-historic-moment-248706

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Black librarian who rewrote the rules of power, gender and passing as white

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Deborah W. Parker, Professor of Italian, University of Virginia

    A 1910 watercolor portrait of Belle da Costa Greene by Laura Coombs Hills. The Morgan Library & Museum, New York, gift of the Estate of Belle da Costa Greene.

    “Just Because I am a Librarian doesn’t mean I have to dress like one.”

    With this breezy pronouncement, Belle da Costa Greene handily differentiated herself from most librarians.

    She stood out for other reasons, too.

    In the early 20th century – a time when men held most positions of authority – Greene was a celebrated book agent, a curator and the first director of the Morgan Library. She also earned US$10,000 a year, about $280,000 today, while other librarians were making roughly $400.

    She was also a Black woman who passed as white.

    Born in 1879, Belle was the daughter of two light-skinned Black Americans, Genevieve Fleet and Richard T. Greener, the first Black man to graduate from Harvard. When the two separated in 1897, Fleet changed the family’s last name to Greene and, along with her five children, crossed the color line. Belle Marion Greener became Belle da Costa Greene – the “da Costa” a subtle claim to her Portuguese ancestry.

    One of the nine known portraits of Belle da Costa Greene that photographer Clarence H. White made in 1911.
    Biblioteca Berenson, I Tatti, the Harvard University Center for Italian Renaissance Studies

    When banking magnate J.P. Morgan sought a librarian in 1905, his nephew Junius Morgan recommended Greene, who had been one of his co-workers at the Princeton Library.

    Henceforth, Greene’s life didn’t just kick into a higher gear. It was supercharged. She became a lively fixture at social gatherings among America’s wealthiest families. Her world encompassed Gilded Age mansions, country retreats, rare book enclaves, auction houses, museums and art galleries. Bold, vivacious and glamorous, the keenly intelligent Greene attracted attention wherever she went.

    I found myself drawn to the worlds Greene entered and the people she described in her lively letters to her lover, art scholar Bernard Berenson. In 2024, I published a book, “Becoming Belle Da Costa Greene,” which explores her voice, her self-invention, her love of art and literature, and her path-breaking work as a librarian.

    Yet I’m often asked whether Greene mentions her passing as white in her writings. She did not. Greene was one of hundreds of thousands of light-skinned Black Americans who passed as white in the Jim Crow era. While speculation about Greene’s background circulated in her lifetime, nothing was confirmed until historian Jean Strouse revealed the identities of Greene’s parents in her 1999 biography, “Morgan: American Financier.” Until that point, only Greene’s mother and siblings knew the story of their Black heritage.

    “Passing” can often raise more questions than answers. But Greene did not largely define herself through one category, such as her racial identity. Instead, she constructed a self through the things she loved.

    ‘I love this life – don’t you?’

    In my view, any consideration of Greene’s attitudes toward her own race must remain an open question. And uncertainty can be acknowledged – even embraced – with judgments suspended.

    The Morgan Library & Museum currently has an exhibition on Greene that will run until May 4, 2025 – one that’s already generated debates about Greene and the significance of her passing.

    One section of the exhibition, “Questioning the Color Line,” includes novels on passing, paintings such as Archibald J. Motley Jr.’s “The Octoroon Girl,” photographs of Greene, and clips from Oscar Micheaux’s 1932 film “Veiled Aristocrats” and John M. Stahl’s 1934 film “Imitation of Life,” which portray painful scenes between white-passing characters and their family members.

    None of these objects clarifies Greene’s particular relationship to passing. Instead, they place the librarian within melodramatic and conventional representations about passing that stress self-division and angst.

    We don’t know – perhaps we will never know – whether Greene had similar moments of self-doubt.

    Greene frequently received glowing press coverage.
    The Morgan Library & Museum

    Yet some critics have concluded as much. In his review of the exhibition for The New Yorker, critic Hilton Als laments what Greene’s passing had cost her. He describes her as a “girl who loved power,” a woman who “became a member of another race – not Black or white but alternately grandiose and self-despising.”

    There’s a lot of certainty in such a pronouncement – and scant evidence furnished to support such declarations.

    New York Times columnist John McWhorter takes issue with Als’s depiction of the librarian’s passing in a Jan. 23, 2025, article.

    Citing passages from her letters in which Greene excitedly describes reading the Arabic folktales “The Thousand and One Nights” and seeing exhibitions of modern art, McWhorter asks readers to reconsider this “witty, puckish soul who savored books and art” and “had an active social life.”

    What if Greene gave her race little thought, McWhorter wonders. What if she simply saw the notion of race and racial categorization as “a fiction” and instead lived her life to its fullest? Of course, her light skin afforded her the opportunity that other Black people of her era didn’t have. But does that necessarily mean that she was self-loathing or conflicted?

    “[W]e are all wearing trousers and I love them,” Greene writes in one letter to Berenson, adding, “The Library grows more wonderful every day and I am terribly happy in my work here … I love this life – don’t you?”

    Greene’s vitality captivated Berenson, who once described the librarian as “incredibly and miraculously responsive.”

    The connoisseur was not the only contemporary who admired Greene’s effervescence. In “The Living Present,” an account of the activities of women before and after World War II, Greene’s friend Gertrude Atherton paid tribute to Greene, a “girl so fond of society, so fashionable in dress and appointments” that she could impress any stranger with her “overflowing joie de vivre.”

    Crafting an aura

    Viewed through a more expansive lens, Greene’s passing can be seen as part of an exercise in self-fashioning and self-invention.

    Greene dressed to be noticed – and she was. Meta Harrsen, the librarian Greene hired in 1922, offers a rare eye-witness account. On the day Greene interviewed Harrsen, “she wore a dress of dark red Italian brocade shot with silver threads, a gold braided girdle, and an emerald necklace.”

    Greene understood well the power of clothes to project a distinct identity – a highly crafted one in this case, and one befitting a connoisseur of rare books.

    Greene poses for a Time magazine portrait in 1915.
    The Morgan Library & Museum

    At that, she excelled. She became known for her stunning acquisition coups: her purchase of 16 rare editions of the works of English printer William Caxton at an auction; her procurement of the highly coveted Crusader’s Bible through a private negotiation; and her acquisition of the Spanish Apocalypse Commentary, a medieval text written by a Spanish monk that Greene was able to buy at a steep discount.

    To me, a 1915 photo captures Greene’s confidence and aura more than any other image of the librarian.

    She posed in her home and wasn’t shot in soft focus with a studio backdrop as other photographs tend to portray her. Sitting on the arm of a large chair upholstered in a tapestry weave, she wears an elaborate hat with a large ostrich plume, a high-necked blouse under a long, loosely belted jacket with a ruffled cuff over a long dark skirt. The decor is no less striking: Flemish tapestries decorate the walls behind her, and a liturgical vestment is draped over the bookcase. Looking directly at the viewer, Greene is assured and poised.

    Greene’s stylish flair was not simply decorative. It was a testament to her vibrant personality and the joy she took in her work. Rather than judge her according to contemporary notions of racial identity, I prefer to marvel over her achievements and how she became a model for generations of future librarians.

    Greene didn’t just pass. She surpassed – in spectacular ways.

    Deborah W. Parker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Black librarian who rewrote the rules of power, gender and passing as white – https://theconversation.com/the-black-librarian-who-rewrote-the-rules-of-power-gender-and-passing-as-white-246469

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The weird psychology of airports

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Steve Taylor, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Leeds Beckett University

    LightField Studios/Shutterstock

    Many of us have witnessed unusual and even anti-social behaviour at an airport or on a flight. These may range from benign acts such as sleeping on the floor or doing yoga in front of the flight information display system to serious incidents like early morning drunken arguments or even trying to open the aeroplane doors mid-flight.

    These more sinister problems appear to have worsened over recent years, with increasing air rage incidents and flight diversions. Such incidents have led to calls to reduce or even ban the sale of alcohol at airports and on planes. RyanAir, for example, has called for a two-drink limit at airport bars to stop drunken incidents on planes.

    But what is it about airports that make us behave differently? Let’s take a look at the psychology.

    Many holidaymakers feel that the adventure begins at the airport, putting them in a different frame of mind to normal. They are eager to begin their one or two weeks’ of relaxed hedonism with a flourish.

    Others, however, are anxious about flying, which may make them act out of character or take refuge in alcohol. The noise and crowds of airports doesn’t help either. As the field of environmental psychology has demonstrated, human beings are very sensitive to our immediate surroundings, and can easily become “overloaded” by stressors such as crowds and noise.

    Stress and anxiety produce irritability, both on a temporary and ongoing basis. People who are generally anxious are more prone to anger. And a temporary anxious mood often triggers angry outbursts.

    In my view, we also need to look at the airport from a psychogeographic perspective. Psychogeography studies the effect of places on people’s emotions and behaviour, particularly urban environments.

    In Celtic cultures, there is a concept of special “thin places” – often sacred groves or forests – where the veil between the material and spiritual world is thin. In thin places, we are between two realms, neither fully in one place nor another.

    In the modern technological world, airports can also be seen as “thin places”. They are liminal zones where boundaries fade. On a literal level, national borders dissolve. Once we pass through security, we enter a no man’s land, between countries. The concept of place becomes hazy.

    In a similar way, time becomes a hazy concept at airports. About to step on a plane, we are in a liminal space between two time zones, about to leap forward in time, or even head back into the past. Some flights across the US – such as Atlanta to Alabama – land earlier than departure time, as they cross time zones. Being able to manage our time gives us a sense of control over our lives. Losing this may be another source of anxiety.

    In another sense, airports are a zone of absence, where the present moment is unwelcome. Everyone’s attention turns towards the future, to their flights and the adventures ahead of them when they arrive at their destination. This intense future focus often brings frustration, especially if flights are delayed.

    Personal boundaries also become fluid. As well as anti-social behaviour, airports may play host to pro-social behaviour, where strangers share their travel and holiday plans, speaking with unusual intimacy. In no man’s land, normal social inhibitions don’t apply. And alcohol can further lubricate this social cohesion.

    Due to the haziness of time and place, airports create a sense of disorientation. We define ourselves in terms of time and place. We know who we are in relation to our daily routines and our familiar environments. We also define ourselves in terms of nationality. Without such markers, we may feel adrift. Whether caused by psychological or environmental factors, and even if only temporary, disorientation can have detrimental effects.

    Liberating effects

    On the plus side, all of this may have a liberating effect for some of us. As I point out in my book Time Expansion Experiences, we normally view time as an enemy that steals the moments of our lives and oppresses us with deadlines. So to step outside time sometimes feels like being let out of prison.

    The same applies to identity. A sense of identity is important to our psychological health, but can become constricting. Like actors who are stuck playing the same character in a soap opera week after week, we enjoy the security of our roles but long to test and stretch ourselves with new challenges. So to step outside our normal routines and environments feels invigorating. Ideally, the freedom that begins at the airport continues throughout our foreign adventures.

    Ultimately, whether we feel anxious or liberated, we may end up acting out of character.

    In line with the theories of psychologist Sigmund Freud, this could be interpreted as a shift from our normal civilised ego to the primitive, instinctive part of the psyche, which Freud called the id. According to Freud, the id is the site of our desires and drives, our emotion and aggression, and it demands instant gratification. The id is normally held in check by the ego, but is always liable to break through, especially when our inhibitions are loosened by alcohol or drugs.

    Outside normal restraints, some holidaymakers allow their id to express itself as soon as they pass through security. And once they become intoxicated, the id is completely dominant, and liable to cause mayhem.

    Banning alcohol from airports may sound draconian. But given that there are so many factors that encourage anti-social behaviour, it is difficult to think of any other solution. In a situation when boundaries break down, leading to possible chaos, a legal boundary may be the only hope.

    Steve Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The weird psychology of airports – https://theconversation.com/the-weird-psychology-of-airports-248357

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the real murders behind the hit novel Butter exposed Japanese media misogyny

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martina Baradel, Marie Curie Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Oxford

    Japan, 2009. It is a morning in August and, in a parking lot in Saitama – a regional centre about 30kms north of Tokyo – a rental car is spotted with a man lying in the back seat. His name is Yoshiyuki Oide. But it turns out that he’s not having a quick nap – he’s dead.

    The cause of death is carbon monoxide poisoning and is initially thought to be a case of suicide. But the police are not convinced, so they knock on the door of the woman Oide had been dating, 35-year-old Kanae Kijima. This marks the beginning of the investigation into what would become known in the media as the “Konkatsu killer” case. The name derives from konkatsu, meaning marriage hunting.

    The investigation uncovered evidence that suggested Kijima had killed three men she met on dating sites. The three deaths were initially considered as suicides but were all deemed to have been staged. The court agreed and Kijima – who has always maintained her innocence – was found guilty in 2012, based on what was widely held to be largely circumstantial evidence, and sentenced to death. The decision was upheld in subsequent appeals, and she is now on death row awaiting execution.

    Kijima’s case was similar to the of Chisako Kakehi who died in prison on December 26 2024 while under sentence of death. She had been found guilty of murder and fraud and given the death penalty after a court found she had entrapped and swindled money from three men (including her husband) before killing them using cyanide.

    But there was also a distinct aspect to Kijima’s case. From the start much of the media focused on the defendant’s appearance rather than the heinous nature of the crime. Popular forums, newspapers, and magazines buzzed with variations on the same question: how could a woman described as “ugly and fat” manage to attract these men?

    There was speculation that her success lay in her “homely” qualities – the stereotype of chubby women being cheerful, nurturing and excellent cooks. It was suggested that men might prefer such a woman’s warmth and hospitality over a stylish woman’s “air of superiority”.

    In Japan, when somebody is sentenced to death, they tend to disappear from the public eye. But Kijima maintained a blog where she detailed her life and relationships – and continued to write on it during and after the trial, probably through her lawyers. She still publishes on various issues: from the kind of cookies available in the detention house to the conditions in the death row, from dietary advice to reflection on the lay assessor trial in Japanese criminal procedure.

    The media eagerly mined her posts to reinforce stereotypes about gender roles and appearance, but Kijima pushed back. She has sharply criticised the focus on her looks and gender over the legal evidence, using her reflections to spotlight these biases.

    Telling the story

    Novelist Asako Yuzuki took inspiration from Kijima’s case to create a fictional narrative for her novel Butter. It’s a story in which a journalist covering the story of a woman murderer is sucked into her swirling obsession with butter and indulgent food, exposing fat-phobia and sexism in Japanese society.

    The fictionalised account of the case challenges steretypes about Japanes women.
    google/books

    Kijima, who has published a memoir and a novel of her own, expressed her deep discontent with the publication of the novel on her blog: “What Yuzuki and the publisher are doing is nothing short of theft. If they interfere with external communication rights, they are not just thieves but complicit in murder. They continue to use my name without permission … I truly think it’s a vulgar book, BUTTER.”

    But, when I interviewed her, Yuzuki insisted that she was interested in the implications of her case, in how Japanese media often sensationalises stories, rather than the details of the crime.

    Japanese media … often reflect the perspective of powerful men. … This realisation was a turning point for me. Until then, I hadn’t really questioned much or paid close attention to politics or media bias. But when it came to something I love – cooking – it struck a nerve.

    Stereotypes and social expectations

    In her book, Yuzuki questions some deep-seated Japanese stereotypes – particularly around women and cooking. She says that the concept of “marriage hunting” is still popular in Japan, and women who love cooking are often labelled as “domestic” or “obedient”.

    But, in her experience, someone passionate about cooking is far from submissive. On the contrary, cooking is powerful, and a woman skilled in the kitchen could just as easily harm someone as she could nourish them. “There’s a fine line between nurturing and dangerous precision,” she told me.

    Social media has become a powerful tool for activists and writers like Yuzuki to connect with others and amplify their voices. She has joined other authors in advocating for marginalised groups, including sexual minorities, highlighting the intersectionality of issues such as gender, class, and criminal justice.

    The Kijima case, through the facts, her blog posts from prison, and through the work of writers including Yuzuki, invites a deep reflection on the weight of societal expectations on gender and appearance. Beyond the question of guilt or innocence, it illustrates how female criminals are judged not only for their actions but for defying norms of femininity.

    This dual scrutiny aligns with historical biases in Japan, where women who challenge societal norms are often framed as dangerous outliers. Kijima’s portrayal as an unconventional femme fatale evokes the 19th-century “poison women” trope – known as dofuku. This casts women as destructive forces who upend the lives of those around them.

    The severity of Kijima’s punishment — the death penalty was not used at all in 2023 and only once in 2022 — seems designed to deliver exemplary justice. In the minds of many Japanese people she was guilty not only of murder but of manipulating societal expectations of femininity while failing to conform to conventional standards of beauty and behaviour.

    The case has reinforced the narrative that her transgressions extended beyond the courtroom and into the realm of societal betrayal.

    Martina Baradel would like to thank author Francesca Scotti for her help in researching this article, and author Asako Yuzuki for the interview.

    – ref. How the real murders behind the hit novel Butter exposed Japanese media misogyny – https://theconversation.com/how-the-real-murders-behind-the-hit-novel-butter-exposed-japanese-media-misogyny-247859

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Beyond depression: surprising health conditions antidepressants can treat

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

    Antidepressants can be useful for treating a wide range of conditions. Kmpzzz/ Shutterstock

    Antidepressants are typically prescribed to manage depression. But this isn’t the only reason you may be prescribed an antidepressant. In fact, they can have a broad range of effects, which makes them suitable for managing a range of other health conditions that aren’t necessarily related to mental health.

    Here are five health conditions you may be prescribed an antidepressant for.

    1. Chronic nerve pain

    Many antidepressants are believed to work by increasing the levels of chemicals in the brain called neurotransmitters – although the exact science is still unknown. In particular, they increase levels of serotonin and noradrenaline, which are linked to mood.

    These neurotransmitters are also linked to pain pathways. It’s for this reason that some people who experience nerve pain may be prescribed a tricyclic antidepressant – such as amitriptyline and nortriptyline.

    Studies show that low doses of these drugs may be effective in treating nerve pain. This pain is often described as a shooting, burning pain, which may radiate outwards.

    Sometimes patients also experience tingling and numbness. This type of pain is typically caused by nerve damage. Nerve pain can occur in people with diabetes (diabetic neuropathy), trigeminal neuralgia (facial pain) and multiple sclerosis.

    Studies show these antidepressants are more likely to relieve nerve pain compared to traditional painkillers such as ibuprofen or paracetamol. Duloxetine is another antidepressant that may be used.

    Amitriptyline is also sometimes used to prevent migraines, chronic tension headaches and to treat abdominal pain in irritable bowel syndrome.

    2. Urinary incontinence

    Antidepressants may also be helpful in managing urinary incontinence (unintentionally passing urine) and stress incontinence (passing urine when there’s pressure on the bladder from coughing, jumping, laughing or sneezing).

    In clinical trials of the antidepressant duloxetine (a serotonin noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor, or SNRI), the drug is shown to be useful in treating severe urinary incontinence in women. However, duloxetine is usually only prescribed by a specialist as a second-choice treatment after surgery.

    It’s thought duloxetine increases serotonin and noradrenaline in the spinal cord. This helps contract the muscle that regulates urine flow from the urethra to the bladder.

    An SNRI is typically only prescribed as a second-line treatment option for incontinence.
    CrizzyStudio/ Shutterstock

    In children who experience bedwetting (nocturnal enuresis), studies show a tricyclic antidepressant, such as imipramine, may be used. Similarly to duloxetine, this is only used if other treatments have been unsatisfactory.

    Imipramine may help with bedwetting as it relaxes the bladder muscle so children are less likely to release urine.

    3. Eating disorders

    Bulimia is an eating disorder characterised by purging (for example, making themselves vomit) and binge eating. As it’s a complex mental health disorder, the first-choice treatment is psychotherapy. But fluoxetine, a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), is the only antidepressant licensed for bulimia. It’s normally prescribed alongside psychotherapy if psychotherapy by itself hasn’t worked.

    A small study showed that fluoxetine was more effective than a placebo in treating some bulimia symptoms. It’s unclear what the exact mechanism is, but some research suggests fluoxetine reduces depressive symptoms which may be associated with bulimia in some patients – making it easier for them to engage in psychotherapy.

    4. OCD, panic and anxiety disorders

    Antidepressants may also be useful for treating other mental health conditions – including obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), panic disorder and generalised anxiety disorder.

    Research has shown SSRIs, such as fluoxetine and sertraline, may improve OCD symptoms in some patients. Both SSRIs and SNRIs have proven to be effective in managing symptoms of panic and generalised anxiety disorders.

    The exact mechanism that enables antidepressants to work for these conditions is unknown. But it may be due to the increase in serotonin levels or changes in brain pathways which regulate mood, anxiety and compulsions.

    5. Menopause

    Although antidepressants are not licensed for this condition, they are sometimes used to treat menopausal symptoms.

    Several studies show the SSRIs paroxetine and citalopram and the SNRI venlafaxine can help women. In particular, they reduce the frequency and severity of hot flushes – one of the most common menopause symptoms women seek help for. One review found that hot flushes can be reduced by up to 65% when using these antidepressants.

    In menopause, a woman’s oestrogen level drops. This is a hormone that stimulates the production of serotonin. But some studies suggest the lower levels of serotonin may be linked to hot flushes. This may explain why antidepressants are useful in managing hot flushes as they are thought to increase serotonin levels in the brain.

    Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is the most effective option for managing menopause symptoms such as hot flushes. But antidepressants may be useful for women who are unable to use HRT. But as there is limited research on using antidepressants to manage menopause symptoms, more studies will be needed.

    For many of these conditions, antidepressants are the last treatment option. But for some, such as those with nerve pain, antidepressants are the most effective options. Antidepressants may not work for everyone – and they may cause side-effects in some people. This is why it’s important to talk with your pharmacist or doctor if you have questions about taking an antidepressant you’ve been prescribed.

    Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Beyond depression: surprising health conditions antidepressants can treat – https://theconversation.com/beyond-depression-surprising-health-conditions-antidepressants-can-treat-247821

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Trump’s suggestion to ‘clean out’ Gaza sent shockwaves through the Middle East

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Phelps, Commissioning Editor, International Affairs

    This article was first published as World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK. Click here to receive this newsletter every Thursday, direct to your inbox.

    Hundreds of thousands of civilians returned to the northern Gaza Strip this week after checkpoints were reopened in line with the ceasefire agreement. Many will have found their homes destroyed after months of heavy fighting and bombardment – something the new US president, Donald Trump, has pointed out.

    In an exchange with reporters last weekend, Trump said: “I’m looking at the whole Gaza Strip right now and it’s a mess, it’s a real mess.” He then went on to suggest Palestinians there should be “evacuated” to Egypt and Jordan where “they could maybe live in peace for a change”. “You’re talking about a million and a half people … we just clean out that whole thing,” he continued.

    Trump is seemingly no stranger to airing whatever thoughts come into his head. At his inauguration he claimed – without providing evidence – that “China is operating the Panama canal”. And he has since called Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine “ridiculous”. But even by these standards, his suggestion to evict Gazans from their land is brash to say the least.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    As Karin Aggestam of Lund University reports, Trump’s proposal has been met with disbelief across the Middle East. It has been widely criticised throughout the region as a potential “second Nakba” – referring to the displacement of Palestinians after Israel’s unilateral declaration of statehood in 1948.



    Read more:
    Donald Trump’s suggestion of ‘clearing out’ Gaza adds another risk to an already fragile ceasefire

    The proposal has also been rejected outright by Egypt and Jordan. Egypt’s ministry of foreign affairs released a statement on Sunday objecting to any forced displacement of Palestinians. And Jordan’s minister of foreign affairs, Ayman Safadi, said his country was committed to “ensuring that Palestinians remain on their land”. The Arab League regional bloc has accused Trump of advocating ethnic cleansing.

    Aggestam says it’s not yet certain if moving Palestinians out of Gaza will become an official US policy position, or whether it is yet another example of Trump speaking his mind. But, in her view, Trump’s latest pronouncement will further complicate the already fragile ceasefire.

    The idea of relocating Palestinians to other countries has thrilled Israel’s extreme ultra-nationalist parties. The Israeli finance minister and leader of the Religious Zionist party, Bezalel Smotrich, and the former national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, have both previously encouraged the return of Israeli settlers to the Gaza Strip.

    Ben Gvir, who recently resigned from his ministerial position in protest at the Gaza ceasefire, asserted in October that “encouraging emigration” of Palestinian residents of Gaza would be the “most ethical” solution to the conflict.

    According to Leonie Fleischmann of City, University of London, the pair share an anti-Arab ideology and a messianic belief in the Jewish people’s right to what they call “Greater Israel”. This refers to a Jewish state that would also include the West Bank, which they referred to as “Judea and Samaria”, as well as Gaza and part of Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

    As Fleischmann explains, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip were the sites of many key events in biblical times and were the home of a number of Israelite kingdoms. In the Bible, God even promises this land to the descendants of Abraham – the Jewish people. This, Fleischmann writes, is the reason behind Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s belief that the Jewish people have the God-given right to settle the whole of Greater Israel.



    Read more:
    The growing influence of Israel’s ultranationalist settler movement

    This is not a position held by the majority of Israelis. But Israel’s ultra-nationalists wield considerable political power, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government dependent on their support to remain in power. Indeed, days after Trump suggested clearing out Gaza, Smotrich spoke of turning it into an actionable policy.

    Speaking with reporters on Monday, he said: “There is nothing to be excited about the weak opposition of Egypt and Jordan to the plan. We saw yesterday how Trump [imposed his will on] Colombia to deport immigrants despite its opposition. When he wants it, it happens.”

    The events Smotrich was referring to in Colombia were certainly extraordinary. Outraged at the repatriation of Colombian migrants in military planes, Colombian president Gustavo Petro refused to allow the flights to land.

    Trump immediately vowed tariffs on Colombian goods and sanctions on government officials, which drew a furious social media response out of Petro and the start of a (very brief) trade war. But within a few hours, Petro had backed down and Colombia announced it would start receiving migrants, including on US military aircraft.

    The White House hailed the agreement as a victory for Trump’s hardline immigration strategy. However, according to Amalendu Misra of Lancaster University, Trump’s punishing tariff threats and foul rhetoric toward illegal immigrants may only damage the power and position of the US in the region.

    His willingness to wage a trade war with countries in Latin America could encourage others to speed up their search for alternative trade partners. And, worse still, he may even push them towards closer relations with governments and ideologies that are inimical to US interests, writes Misra.



    Read more:
    Trump’s method for repatriating migrants risks undermining US interests in Latin America

    Choppy waters ahead

    Back in the Middle East, the ceasefire in Gaza has offered the region a break from war. This has included a pledge by Houthi militants in Yemen not to attack commercial ships travelling through the Red Sea.

    These attacks have halved the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal, a crucial route for goods moving between Asia and Europe, with many diverting around the southern tip of Africa.

    This route adds thousands of miles to the journey, so supply chains have had to deal with higher shipping costs, product delivery delays and increased carbon emissions. In the view of Gokcay Balci, a logistics expert at Leeds University, this disruption is likely to continue.

    The situation in the Red Sea remains unpredictable, he writes. The leader of the Houthis, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, said on Monday that the group was “ready to return to escalation again alongside our brothers, the fighters in Palestine”, and warned: “We have our finger on the trigger.” Shipping companies have, unsurprisingly, announced that they will continue to prioritise alternative routes.

    The Houthis seem unconvinced that the ceasefire in Gaza will hold. But, at least for now, it is providing civilians with some much-needed respite after more than a year of relentless violence.



    Read more:
    Red Sea crisis: supply chain issues set to continue despite Gaza ceasefire

    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get our updates directly in your inbox.

    – ref. How Trump’s suggestion to ‘clean out’ Gaza sent shockwaves through the Middle East – https://theconversation.com/how-trumps-suggestion-to-clean-out-gaza-sent-shockwaves-through-the-middle-east-248461

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nonprofits that provide shelter for homeless people, disaster recovery help, and food for low-income Americans rely heavily on federal funding – they would be reeling if Trump froze that money

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Dyana Mason, Associate Professor of Planning, Public Policy and Management, University of Oregon

    Food pantry staff members and volunteers hand out food in Chelsea, Mass., in November 2024. Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images

    On Jan. 27, 2025, the Trump administration ordered a freeze on federal grants and contracts covering a wide array of aid programs to take effect at 5 p.m. the following day. This freeze was partially prevented when a judge responded to a lawsuit filed by the National Council of Nonprofits and other organizations. The flow of funds on grants that had already been awarded was at least temporarily protected by the judge’s action. The attorneys general of 22 states and the District of Columbia have also sued to block this funding freeze.

    The Trump administration, which on Jan. 29 rescinded the memo ordering the funding suspension, has made clear that it may again seek to reduce or eliminate much of the money, totaling several hundred billion dollars, that funds many services that nonprofits provide, such as support for foster parents, after-school care and distributing food for free.

    Dyana Mason and Mirae Kim, two scholars of nonprofits, explain the role that federal funding plays in the nonprofit sector.

    How much do nonprofits rely on federal funding?

    Nonprofits partner with the government to deliver social services, such as child care for low-income families, housing for people experiencing homelessness, and job training and placement. These partnerships can form with local or state governments, as well as with the federal government, with this collaboration mostly taking place through grants and contracts.

    Government funding makes up about 33% of the revenue flowing into the nonprofit sector annually, according to the Urban Institute. The institute, a think tank, also found that nearly 40% of all nonprofits in the United States applied for federal grants in 2021, 2022 and 2023, and that about 10% applied for federal contracts. The share of government funding can be far larger for some kinds of social service nonprofits.

    Many other nonprofits applied for local and state grants during that three-year period. Those grants, however, are often themselves funded by the federal government indirectly through grants it makes to state and local government agencies. Those agencies, in turn, then provide grants or maintain contracts with local nonprofits to provide services.

    Although it’s hard to track with absolute precision due to those complex arrangements, government revenue is the second-largest source of income for nonprofits after the money these organizations and institutions earn through commercial activities.

    Also called “fee-for-service,” this revenue includes the money nonprofit hospitals get when patients and insurers pay medical bills, nonprofit theaters receive when they sell tickets to performances, and nonprofit private schools obtain when parents pay tuition.

    Some social service nonprofits charge fees too, typically on a sliding scale. That is, their clients with relatively higher incomes pay more, and those with extremely low incomes pay very little or nothing at all.

    How could freezing federal funding affect nonprofits?

    We have no doubt that a long freeze on federal grants and contracts would be devastating for nonprofits and the communities they serve.

    For example, Meals on Wheels, a program that delivers hot meals to more than 2 million homebound people over 65 and helps them maintain social connections, gets 37% of its funding from the federal government.

    Clackamas Women’s Services, a domestic and sexual violence organization based near Portland, Oregon, is one of the many local organizations that have expressed concern about what to expect. The group says it could lose half of its annual budget if federal funding were to be eliminated.

    Without federal funding, organizations like these – many of which already have waitlists – would have to cut back on the services they provide.

    Nonprofits are confused and concerned about the stability of federal funding, Scripps News reports.

    What’s the role of nonprofits in the US safety net?

    It’s very significant.

    For the past several decades, attempts to scale back the size of the government have led to government agencies essentially hiring nonprofits to do much of their work.

    Through contracts and grants, nonprofits then do such things as assist people who are recovering from fires, hurricanes and other disasters; provide services for veterans and active-duty members of the military; and help people with mental health conditions, including substance use problems, just to name a few.

    This arrangement typically provides nonprofits with a reliable and predictable source of funds that they can use to serve their communities. But it can also leave them vulnerable to policy changes – especially when new administrations take over, as the second Trump administration’s actions illustrate.

    Research we conducted about what happened to nonprofits during the COVID-19 pandemic showed that volatility in the economy has serious effects on the ability of nonprofits to do their work.

    For example, social service nonprofits struggled in March and April 2020 due to falling revenue at a time of increasing demand. Many of these organizations had to scale back their services. In some cases, they canceled them.

    We followed up with another survey in November and December 2020. By then, we found, 61% of the groups had received forgivable federal loans through the government’s Paycheck Protection Program.

    Nearly half of the nonprofits told us that they had, in addition, received other forms of emergency funding from the federal government, including Economic Injury Disaster Loans and emergency food distributions.

    This federal assistance made it possible for thousands of nonprofits to keep their staff employed and continue to provide important services as the economy recovered.

    What happens when nonprofits lose federal funds?

    It’s hard for social service organizations to replace federal funding.

    Nonprofits can, of course, appeal to their donors to help bridge the gap. But donations from individuals, foundations, corporations and bequests only amount to no more than 15% of the funds flowing into the nonprofit sector.

    The outcome of freezing, eliminating or scaling back federal funding for nonprofits would mean that those in need would get fewer services. We would also expect mass layoffs, which could harm the U.S. economy.

    Nonprofits employ more than 12 million people in the United States. That’s more workers than big industries such as construction, transportation and finance employ. Should millions of them suddenly become unemployed, demand would grow further for social services from providers already unable to meet lower levels of demand due to funding cuts.

    Has there ever been upheaval like this before?

    Congress appropriates money to provide for the services that the public needs and demands. These moves have led to great fear and uncertainty among organizations that serve people in need in the United States and abroad.

    Although it’s not unusual for funding priorities to change from one administration to the next, Donald Trump’s executive orders on international aid and nonprofit grants and contracts that underpin the U.S. safety net are unprecedented.

    Dyana Mason has received research funding from the National Institute for Transportation and Communities and the Joint Fire Science Program with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). She is also a volunteer board member of the Southwest Oregon chapter of the American Red Cross.

    Mirae Kim is affiliated with the Association for Research on Nonprofit Organizations and Voluntary Action (ARNOVA) as a non-paid, at-large board member.

    – ref. Nonprofits that provide shelter for homeless people, disaster recovery help, and food for low-income Americans rely heavily on federal funding – they would be reeling if Trump froze that money – https://theconversation.com/nonprofits-that-provide-shelter-for-homeless-people-disaster-recovery-help-and-food-for-low-income-americans-rely-heavily-on-federal-funding-they-would-be-reeling-if-trump-froze-that-money-248543

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scottish teachers to strike over pupil behaviour – my research shows what they’re dealing with

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Moira Hulme, Professor of Education, University of the West of Scotland

    Teachers at a school in East Dunbartonshire, Scotland, are planning industrial action – not over pay but the behaviour of their pupils.

    It’s not the first time school staff in Scotland have taken this step. Teachers at a school in Glasgow took strike action in 2022 over “violent and abusive” pupil behaviour. A 2024 survey of staff in Aberdeen found that many had experienced violence and more than a third had been physically assaulted.

    Pupil behaviour is one factor – among others – severely affecting the wellbeing of teachers, as shown in my recent research with colleagues.

    Our national research project on teacher workload is a collaboration between the University of the West of Scotland, Cardiff Metropolitan University and Birmingham City University. We asked 1,834 teachers in primary, secondary and special schools in Scotland to fill out online diaries, logging how they spent their time over one week in March 2024.

    We found that long hours and high pressure were putting significant strain on teachers’ personal and professional lives.

    Time pressures

    Our study found that nearly a quarter of teachers’ lesson time was spent on low-level and serious behaviour interruptions. They spent time dealing with distressed behaviour and incidents of verbal and physical aggression, settling the class and working with pupils on individual plans to help them engage better with school.

    In 2023, research commissioned by the Scottish government on behaviour in schools found 67% of teachers experienced general verbal abuse, 59% physical aggression and 43% physical violence between pupils in the week preceding the survey.

    On average, our research found that teachers in Scotland worked 46 hours in a typical week. That is 11 more than their contracted hours. The reasons are complex, but we found patterns that repeated regardless of the kind of school teachers were in, their location or their experience. Teachers’ workload intensified when the demands made of them exceed the support and resources available.

    Teachers face increased levels of cultural and linguistic diversity in the classroom, as well as rising numbers of children with additional support needs. Schools’ access to specialist support is falling while pupil needs are rising. Child poverty and poor mental health are contributing to increasing social, emotional and behavioural issues.

    We found that teachers spent 58% of the non-teaching time in their contracted hours on planning and preparation to meet the diverse needs of their pupils.

    Preparation and planning takes up a lot of teachers’ time.
    Chiarascura/Shutterstock

    The remaining 42% was consumed with administrative activities, data management and reporting, communicating with colleagues, parents and external agencies. These demands left teachers with just 35 minutes a week, on average, for professional learning.

    High stress and low job satisfaction are driving people out of teaching. Over 75% of the teachers in our study said they were considering leaving the job prior to retirement.

    Inclusive education

    Another issue affecting teachers in Scotland is the country’s approach to the education of children with additional needs, which differs from the rest of the UK. The default position in Scotland is that all children should be educated in mainstream schools, unless there is compelling evidence that a specialist setting would better serve a child’s educational needs.

    But our research identifies growing disquiet among teachers regarding the capacity of Scotland’s education system to fully support this “presumption to mainstream”.

    The number of pupils with recorded additional needs in Scottish schools rose by 84% between 2014 and 2023. In 2024, pupils with additional needs in mainstream classes reached a record high of 284,448 pupils. This is 40% of all pupils – a rise from 28.7% in 2018.

    Among Scotland’s 2,445 publicly funded schools, 107 are special schools, down from 133 in 2018. A reduction of 392 additional support needs teachers between 2013 and 2023 means a single teacher may now have a caseload of more than 80 pupils.

    Worsening conditions

    Unfortunately, the pressure on teachers looks set to increase as funding challenges affect teacher numbers.

    Scotland’s 32 councils face an overall total budget gap of £585 million in 2024-25. Audit Scotland estimate that this shortfall in funding will increase to £780 million by 2026-27.

    A Scottish National Party 2021 manifesto pledge to recruit 3,500 more teachers and reduce teachers’ contact time remains unfulfilled. In 2023-24, 26 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities reduced teacher numbers while the ratio of pupils to teachers rose.

    Pressures are particularly acute in Scotland’s largest local authority, Glasgow, and are set to intensify. In 2024, Glasgow City Council employed 5,492 full time equivalent teachers, compared to 5,725 in 2022. In spring 2024, the city proposed cutting 450 teaching posts over three years as part of an “education service reform” to address a £100 million funding shortfall.

    In November 2024, parental volunteer group Glasgow City Parents Group failed to secure a judicial review of the council’s education budget cuts. Reducing the teaching workforce across the city by nearly 10% is unlikely to be without consequence for teachers’ workload and the quality of education.

    A resilient education workforce requires highly skilled professionals and a supportive professional environment. As the demands made of teachers intensify, they risk being reduced to institutional “shock absorbers” rather than nurturing leaders of learning.

    Systematic reform of the school curriculum, national assessment and school inspection is under consideration in Scotland. But this will take place against a backdrop of service demands and budgetary pressures that are deeply affecting teaching staff. This must be addressed in order to avoid compromising learning in Scottish schools.

    Moira Hulme received funding from the Educational Institute of Scotland.

    – ref. Scottish teachers to strike over pupil behaviour – my research shows what they’re dealing with – https://theconversation.com/scottish-teachers-to-strike-over-pupil-behaviour-my-research-shows-what-theyre-dealing-with-247525

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa’s debt has skyrocketed – new rules are needed to manage it

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Robert Botha, Research Fellow at the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab. The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), Stellenbosch University

    South Africa’s fiscal trajectory paints a concerning picture. Public expenditure exceeds revenue. As a result sovereign debt is building up and interest on this debt is increasing.

    This raises concerns over the South African government’s financial sustainability. The debt-to-GDP ratio has skyrocketed from 23.6% in 2008/09 to a projected 74.7% in 2024/25. The International Monetary Fund has recommended that, over the long term, South Africa should reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% of GDP, in line with that of peers.

    Arguably more important than the debt level is how quickly debt has accumulated. Debt servicing costs, which consist of the interest on government debt and other costs directly associated with borrowing, have been the fastest-growing line item in the national budget. Rising interest payments have been crowding out critical expenditures on services such as health, education and infrastructure.

    As I argue in a recently published report titled “A fiscal anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the mistakes of the past”, establishing a credible fiscal anchor (or fiscal rule) could be step towards avoiding a debt spiral and regaining fiscal sustainability and credibility.

    Fiscal rules are constraints on fiscal policy, designed to impose numerical limits. For example, a limit on the allowable debt-to-GDP ratio, or the allowable balance after accounting for government expenditure and revenue. Fiscal rules are widely used – 105 countries have adopted them so far.

    Failing to address the country’s fiscal challenges risks plunging South Africa into a debt trap. This happens when a country finds it difficult to escape a cycle of debt and has to borrow more to pay off old debt. If debt-servicing costs continue to rise, essential public services will come under even greater strain.

    Several emerging markets have experienced the severe consequences of unchecked debt accumulation and debt servicing costs. Argentina is one example. Without a credible plan to stabilise and reduce debt and debt servicing costs, the risk of economic stagnation and financial instability grows quickly.

    Fiscal erosion and credibility concerns

    The roots of South Africa’s current predicament lie in years of mistakes. These include:

    • spending beyond its means

    • questionable political decisions like bailing out state-owned entities

    • poor governance and oversight at municipal and local government level, which led to inefficient public spending.

    These factors were underpinned by an underperforming economy, unrealised forecasts and arguably weak institutional checks.

    For the last 15 years South Africa’s National Treasury has undertaken to stabilise the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio. This would have required keeping the ratio constant. But these commitments have consistently been deferred. Debt stabilisation targets have been revised upwards 13 times, from 40% in 2015/16 to the current 75.5%. The stabilisation year has been pushed back 10 times, from the initial year of 2015/16 to the current target of 2025/26. This has created a perception of inconsistent policy.

    Over-optimistic macroeconomic forecasting has undermined credibility. Over the last ten years, GDP growth projections have routinely overshot actual performance by an average of 0.5 percentage points in the first year of forecasts and even more in subsequent years. In defence of the National Treasury, the South African economy has performed worse than more forecasters expected in recent years.

    Adding to the fiscal strain are rising social expenditures, the public sector wage bill and repeated bailouts of state-owned enterprises. This spending relieves short-term political and social pressures, but undermines the country’s long-term fiscal health.

    Without credible mechanisms to constrain spending, South Africa’s fiscal framework lacks the discipline needed to ensure sustainability, and to restore credibility.

    Why fiscal rules matter

    Fiscal rules are there to promote discipline, ensure that debt can be paid and enhance credibility. The experience in the 105 countries that have adopted them suggests that strong, well-designed rules can signal a government’s commitment to fiscal prudence.

    It’s difficult to establish whether there is a causal relationship between fiscal rules and fiscal performance. But there’s at least a correlation. As a practical example of enforcing fiscal rules, in November 2023, the German constitutional court overruled a budget that was passed in the Bundestag but breached Germany’s fiscal rules.

    However, fiscal rules are not a panacea. Poorly designed or inadequately enforced rules can make the problems worse. For South Africa, this risk is acute.

    Political commitment and strong institutional frameworks are needed too. Also, a shift in how fiscal policy is conceived and implemented.

    Designing new rules

    Drawing lessons from global best practices, South Africa’s fiscal rules must be enforceable, flexible and simple. A well-designed rule should:

    • stabilise and eventually reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio

    • target government spending as a share of GDP, emphasising consumption spending like salaries and goods and services, rather than capital expenditure

    • have political buy-in

    • be overseen independently

    • be legally binding and enforceable.

    Context

    South Africa’s low economic growth rate is a complication. Average interest rates on government debt are higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. But reining in spending too much could stifle growth, creating a vicious cycle.

    That’s why stabilising debt first would make more sense than aiming to reduce debt too rapidly.

    South Africa’s fiscal rules must also have some flexibility. For instance, they could allow for shocks such as natural disasters or global economic crises.

    Fiscal rules could follow a phased approach to initially focus on stabilising debt, and then to move towards reducing debt. Both of these phases would entail expenditure rules to guide annual budget processes and to place limits on spending.

    The benefits

    Credible fiscal rules could have a number of benefits.

    Firstly, they could improve South Africa’s credibility by signalling to markets and international institutions that South Africa is committed to fiscal discipline.

    Secondly, fiscal credibility is associated with reduced sovereign risk premiums, which translates into lower debt-servicing costs. In turn this would free up resources for critical development priorities.

    Third, they can foster a more stable economic environment for investment and growth.

    Fourth, they would help coordinate policies. South Africa enjoys rule-based monetary policy in the form of inflation targeting but lacks the same for fiscal policy. This can lead to sub-optimal outcomes. For example, the central bank can keep interest rates too high, not necessarily because it thinks the treasury’s policies are inflationary, but because it cannot predict the treasury’s actions.

    The way forward

    Adopting fiscal rules in South Africa comes with risks. Weak institutional capacity, especially in oversight bodies like the Parliamentary Budget Office, could undermine rule enforcement.

    To shield against these risks, South Africa should have stronger institutions. It could create an independent statutory fiscal council, possibly falling under Parliament, the National Treasury or as an independent constitutional advisory body.

    Oversight bodies would also need to build their capacity.

    Robert Botha is a Research Fellow at the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab. The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER)

    – ref. South Africa’s debt has skyrocketed – new rules are needed to manage it – https://theconversation.com/south-africas-debt-has-skyrocketed-new-rules-are-needed-to-manage-it-248355

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The sound of skateboarding offers skaters a therapeutic way to connect with the city

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul O’Connor, Senior lecturer in Sociology, University of Exeter

    Alistair Macrobert/Unsplash

    The sound of a skateboard trick communicates a world of sensory information to skateboarders. The power of “skatesound” – the noises of the board and the environment it comes into contact with – is so distinct because it relates to an experience that is both heard and felt.

    Despite the sound of skateboarding frequently being an issue of public complaint, many skaters find it therapeutic, calming and a source of joy.

    The visually spectacular activity of skateboarding is often presented as an exciting, iconoclastic pursuit. Despite its inclusion in the last two summer Olympics, it remains sub-culturally distinct. Some skateboarding practices are perhaps even arcane and cult-like in their reverence for banal concrete steps and metal benches.

    Research my colleagues and I conducted argues that the niche world of skateboarding endures because of its dense sensory culture – one that is heard and felt by skateboarders.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    For skateboarders, skatesound is an augmented experience of the world multilayered with insights about the body, movement and the texture of the city.

    Imagine the skateboard itself as an amplifying tool, one that gives fine and detailed information about terrain, efficacy and possibility. It is as if the skateboard is an extended sensory appendage, to feel and hear the world at large.

    The sounds of the city

    A series of research on sport and sound has explored how physical ability can be enhanced by music, the motivation and communal experience of spectator chants and even hearing loss.

    Our research in skateboarding highlights new areas of consideration. One of the most distinct issues relates to how skateboarders have a dynamic understanding of skateable urban spaces that are unknown to other street denizens.

    ‘Relaxing’ skateboarding sounds videos rack up thousands of views on YouTube.

    What skateboarders hear is also what they feel – the sound of the pavements or office plazas becomes part of their sensory world. Skateboarders can hear the sound of a skateboard and be aware of not just the environment it is being ridden through, but also the embodied experience, “the feel” of it for the rider.

    One middle-aged Canadian skateboarder told us that when she heard the sound of someone skateboarding it both gave her joy and a sense of connection to the rider. Sound might therefore tell us something of the shared community and bond skaters report. They connect with each other because they share such a wealth of specialised knowledge.

    Skaters say they feel excited when they hear the sound of someone else skateboarding.
    Tanner Vote/Unsplash

    Generally, skateboarders love the sound of skateboarding, describing it with a range of adjectives as the “sound of freedom”, “happiness”, or simply “lovely”. Yet, they are also keenly aware that, by some, skateboarding is considered unpleasant noise.

    The paradox of skatesound is that skateboarders are able to hold both opposing notions simultaneously. We collected numerous accounts of skateboarders deliberately avoiding certain locations and times so as not to disturb, startle and annoy other city users. Yet, their own experience of hearing skatesound unexpectedly while at work, or in the street below at home, was always met with excitement.

    A universal among skateboarders is what we have termed the “head whip” – the immediate instinctual turn of the head to seek out the origin of skatesound. The association of this sound was reported as an invitation to adventure, a feeling of fraternity with an unseen but clearly heard member of the tribe.

    A surprising feature of our research was that several participants reported some form of neurodiversity, either being on the autism spectrum or having ADHD. The sensory experience of skateboarding, of feeling what you see and hear, was reported in positive terms as a way to calm sometimes overpowering senses.

    For these skaters, skatesound has become part of a full-body connecting experience engaging the physical, mental and emotional with the board and the world at large. It represents some form of craft and mastery of the chaos of everyday life.

    For the past 15 years, the A-Skate foundation provided skateboarding opportunities for children on the autism spectrum in recognition of these therapeutic processes. A range of therapists worldwide are incorporating elements of skateboarding into their support of people’s needs, spanning anxiety to learning disabilities.

    The art of skateboarding

    Bridging the gap between skateboarder and non-skateboarder, artist Max Boutin’s Texturologies art installation (2022) enables those curious about the sensory world to get a no-risk taster.

    Using dynamic sound, large visual screens and static boards that pulse with the skatesound being played underneath, Boutin’s art offers a sensory experience of the skateboarder’s unique relationship to urban space. As a consequence, hearing like a skateboarder becomes one of the simplest ways to feel like a skateboarder.

    Boutin’s work advocates for the specific knowledge embedded in the act of skateboarding. It speaks of those who find joy and revelry in often neglected and unloved urban realms that have lost their enchantment to a public chaperoned endlessly into spaces of consumption.

    As contempt for the city deepens, skatesound can allow us to feel our urban spaces in new ways.

    Paul O’Connor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The sound of skateboarding offers skaters a therapeutic way to connect with the city – https://theconversation.com/the-sound-of-skateboarding-offers-skaters-a-therapeutic-way-to-connect-with-the-city-247866

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: DeepSeek, Nvidia and the AI race that’s shaping the future

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniele D’Alvia, Lecturer in Banking and Finance Law, Queen Mary University of London

    Koshiro K/Shutterstock

    The AI revolution is well under way and two companies – DeepSeek and Nvidia – stand out among those competing to lead it. Outside the financial world, the story might seem distant – but it really does have consequences for everyone. It comes down to why investors are paying so much attention to AI, and how this competition could affect the technology we use daily.

    Developments in AI investment will shape the capabilities of the next generation of apps, smart assistants, self-driving technology and business practices.

    DeepSeek, the new player on the scene, is a Chinese company that has been making huge waves in AI development. Its powerful technology could change things such as healthcare, finance – and even the way we interact with the internet. Investors are excited because they see DeepSeek as a potential leader in shaping the next generation of AI tools.

    Meanwhile, Nvidia has long been a giant in AI hardware, producing the graphics processing units (GPUs, or chips) that power many AI applications. However, the rise of DeepSeek has made some investors rethink their bets, leading to a sell-off in Nvidia shares, and wiping almost US$300 billion (£242 billion) off the company’s value.

    Why does this matter? To put it simply, the AI race isn’t just about corporate profits. The technology developed by companies such as DeepSeek and Nvidia is what powers voice assistants, recommendation systems on streaming platforms, self-driving car software and even medical breakthroughs. As investment flows into AI, it means that innovation could become more advanced and accessible – much faster than we previously expected.

    When investors hear about a new company like DeepSeek making big advances, they often react by shifting their investments. This is what happened with Nvidia. Some investors sold their shares, fearing that DeepSeek might take away some of Nvidia’s dominance in AI. This does not necessarily mean the company is struggling – only that markets move based on expectations, rather than just current success.

    Speculation – where investors accept uncertainty and high risks in return for potentially big returns – plays a key role in these shifts. Investors do not always wait for solid proof that a company will succeed, instead they often act based on excitement, predictions or just fear of missing out. This can cause rapid changes in stock prices, even before new technology is widely available.



    Read more:
    Why Donald Trump’s election win fuelled a stock market surge

    Speculation can sometimes lead to instability, but it also helps to drive innovation. When investors put money into AI companies, it allows those companies to develop technology that could improve people’s daily lives. This has happened before – during the dotcom boom of the 1990s, investment rushed into internet startups. While many companies failed, others like Amazon and Google became global leaders.

    Similarly, cryptocurrency investment surged in the past decade. While the hype led to many failures, blockchain technology – one of its key innovations – has since become a major part of modern finance and security systems.

    Is it a bubble?

    With so much excitement around AI, some experts worry that the industry is experiencing a speculative bubble. A bubble happens when investors pour money into a sector too quickly, driving up prices beyond their real value. This happened in the early 2000s with the dotcom crash that followed the boom years of the previous decade. Many internet companies received huge investments, but when they failed to deliver on their promises markets crashed.

    Could the same happen with AI? It’s possible – but unlike some past bubbles, AI is already being widely used in everyday life. The key question is not whether AI is important, but whether current investments reflect realistic long-term growth or over-optimistic speculation.

    AI is already a big part of people’s lives.
    Tero Vesalainen/Shutterstock

    The sell-off of Nvidia shares does not necessarily mean it is losing its place in AI. Instead, it could reflect investors trying to hedge their bets, moving some of their money to newer companies such as DeepSeek while still keeping Nvidia in their portfolios.

    In other words, investors are looking into the potential “next big thing” (Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, for example, is touting a new AI model that claims to be superior to those of DeepSeek and Meta). Savvy investors often shop around like this to spread risk to avoid relying too much on a single company to bring them returns.

    Beyond Nvidia and DeepSeek, there is a larger global race for AI dominance. Countries, including the United States, China and some European states, are investing heavily in AI research because they recognise how much power and influence this technology could bring. Governments are funding AI initiatives, and businesses are pouring resources into being the first to create groundbreaking AI systems.

    But while speculation and innovation drive growth, regulation is needed to prevent market and financial instability. The history of economic crashes shows that unchecked hype can lead to over-investment and eventual collapse. Regulators need to ensure that AI companies and investors operate responsibly, balancing growth with stability.

    For example, regulators should provide clear AI investment guidelines, endorse transparency around the financial risks of investing, and be on the lookout for possible AI investment bubbles. Importantly, they should also introduce consumer protection policies to shield retail (non-professional) investors. And they should encourage international cooperation around regulation, working towards common principles.

    The battle between DeepSeek and Nvidia is a sign of how AI is transforming the world. Investors, regulators and everyday consumers all have a stake in how this technology develops. While financial speculation can be unpredictable, it is also one of the driving forces behind the innovation that’s shaping the future.

    Daniele D’Alvia does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. DeepSeek, Nvidia and the AI race that’s shaping the future – https://theconversation.com/deepseek-nvidia-and-the-ai-race-thats-shaping-the-future-248626

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How satellites have become Earth’s new health and nature watchdogs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dhritiraj Sengupta, Earth Observation Scientist, Plymouth Marine Laboratory

    Harvepino/Shutterstock

    Satellite-derived Earth observation (EO) data helps researchers like me unlock new insights into monitoring both environmental and human health.

    I’m working with the European Space Agency’s EO4Health Resilience project to integrate information about different types of disease into one digital platform. Due to launch in summer 2025, this project aims to improve accessibility to EO data for medical professionals, support more informed decision-making in public health and hopefully prevent more deaths from disease in the future.

    Environmental and animal health are both closely linked to human health. Climate change has a huge influence on these connections, as it can make disease outbreaks such as the 2003 Sars virus and the recent H5N1 bird flu more likely.

    By increasing the chance of human-wildlife contact, disruptions like deforestation can increase the risk of disease (like COVID-19) transferring from wildlife to people. Many other factors beyond medicine also determine health, such as sanitation, water supply and farming practices.

    The World Health Organization adopted the One Health approach to inspire a joint response to health threats by connecting efforts by veterinary, public health and environmental sectors.

    At a time when governments are struggling to come to grips with the growing costs of healthcare, avoiding outbreaks of infectious diseases is crucial. So, the importance of identifying and monitoring areas of high risk, and of communicating the means of avoiding risks to the public rise to the fore.

    Satellite data can improve environmental and human health monitoring for three different categories of disease:

    1. Waterborne diseases

    There is growing concern about the impact of climate change and human migration. This intensifies the global spread of major bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. EO technology plays a key role in tracking climate change by monitoring big areas over long periods, often in enough detail to spot changes clearly.

    Many bacteria, like Vibrio cholerae which causes cholera, thrive in stagnant water. My team worked with the European Space Agency to show that its presence can be modelled using the concentration of chlorophyll found on the surface of bodies of water. Chlorophyll is the green pigment in plants that helps them use sunlight to make their food and grow.

    Risk maps for an entire lake can be created using satellite-derived chlorophyll data. Zoonotic diseases that spread from animals to humans such as leptospirosis (a disease caused by Leptospira bacteria) have an animal origin, but reach humans through contaminated floodwater in cities.

    Bacteria such as Escherichia coli are often present in sewage pollution and can cause of diarrhoea and gastrointestinal illness. These infections typically occur through activities like drinking or swimming in contaminated water.

    A recent study predicts that US cases of non-cholera Vibrio infections could rise by 50% by 2090 compared to 1995. That’s because sea surface temperatures are increasing due to climate change and bacterial populations can grow and spread at warmer temperatures. Satellites could help monitor those temperature changes and therefore identify places most prone to outbreaks.

    One recent report highlights the value of satellites studying waterborne diseases. The ability to measure and monitor water quality across large areas makes it much easier and quicker to deliver near real-time information.

    Harmful blooms of blue-green algae can be spotted from space.
    Ray Hugo Tang

    2. Vector-borne diseases

    Vector-borne diseases, such as the West Nile virus and malaria, pose
    significant global health threats. They are transmitted by
    mosquitoes and can lead to severe neurological diseases. Vector-borne diseases are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly in tropical regions.

    My colleagues in Italy used EO data to unlock new insights about the transmission of West Nile virus. Models based on satellite data that showed temperature, humidity and vegetation – all of which influence mosquito populations and disease transmission patterns – can help forecast the next outbreak.

    The malaria atlas is a collaborative project that involves scientists from around the world. By collating EO data, mosquito breeding sites can be mapped, while climate change can be tracked as it affects the habitats that disease-carrying mosquitoes live in. Maps like this enhance the effectiveness of public health strategies by pinpointing where best to focus efforts and resources to control and prevent the spread of these diseases.

    3. Non-communicable diseases

    Non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases
    exacerbated by heatwaves, rank among the top global causes of death. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can strain the heart, increasing risks of heart attacks and strokes. So, isolating locations most at risk of heatwaves could help target aid and reduce the risk of widespread heatstroke and other conditions.

    Environmental factors like urbanisation, climate change and air pollution amplify health risks. Several EO projects funded by the European Space Agency use AI and satellite data to map land surface temperatures, greenhouse gas emissions, green spaces, rivers and lakes.

    For example, poor air quality caused by high levels of emissions in urban areas can lead to respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Long-term exposure to pollutants like fine particulate matter known as PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide may increase the risks of cardiovascular diseases, lung cancer, and even premature death.



    Read more:
    Why ocean pollution is a clear danger to human health

    Mapping air quality using satellite data helps identify particulate pollution hotspots. This supports targeted interventions to improve public health.

    In the future, satellites could track plastic pollution in oceans. Marine life consumes plastic particles that humans ingest through seafood. Chemicals present in plastics can lead to hormone disruption in humans and may increase cancer risk or immunity, for example. So tracking pollution distribution around the globe could identify sources and the places where people and wildlife are at most risk of exposure to chemical contaminants like those in plastic.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Dhritiraj Sengupta receives funding from The European Space Agency and The Welcome Trust. He is affiliated with the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Group of Earth Observation (GEO) Aqua Watch, International Geographical Union, and Future Earth-Coasts.

    – ref. How satellites have become Earth’s new health and nature watchdogs – https://theconversation.com/how-satellites-have-become-earths-new-health-and-nature-watchdogs-247319

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South African troops are dying in the DRC: why they’re there and what’s going wrong

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Lindy Heinecken, Professor of Sociology in the Department of Sociology and Social Anthropology., Stellenbosch University

    The death of South African soldiers on a Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has sparked fierce debate about the deployment of South African National Defence Force (SANDF) soldiers there. Some, including political parties, have questioned whether the soldiers were adequately trained, equipped and supported. Lindy Heinecken has spent decades researching the South African military in peacekeeping operations and has interviewed hundreds of soldiers about their experiences and the challenges during deployment. We asked her for her insights.

    What is South Africa doing in the DRC?

    The country is part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC), which includes troops from Malawi and Tanzania. This deployment followed approval by the Southern African Development Community in May 2023, in response to the deteriorating security situation in eastern DRC. The South African National Defence Force is leading the mission.

    Their mandate is to support the DRC government, a member of the 16-member SADC group, in restoring peace, security and stability. The fact that the mandate states that it is to support the DRC government in combating armed groups that threaten peace and security in the eastern DRC implies that this is not a peacekeeping mission.

    The legal basis for the deployment lies in the SADC Mutual Defence Pact, (2003), which states that

    Any armed attack perpetrated against one of the States Parties shall be considered a threat to regional peace and security and shall be met with immediate collective action.

    The mandate gives them the responsibility to protect civilians, disarm armed groups, and help implement the August 2024 ceasefire agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, brokered by Angola as part of the Luanda Process. This agreement aimed to provide a more secure environment, and protect critical infrastructure to ensure the safe delivery of humanitarian aid. This is in line with the United Nations’ responsibility to protect victims of genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.



    Read more:
    South Africa to lead new military force in the DRC: an expert on what it’s up against

    The M23 rebel group, which is supported by Rwanda, has committed a wide range of atrocities in the eastern DRC which can be traced back to the 1994 genocide.

    The impact on civilians has been devastating. While pinning down an exact number is difficult, it’s clear that the rebel forces operating in the eastern DRC, particularly the M23, pose a significant challenge to the stability of the region, and the safety and security of civilians.

    The rebels are implicated in mass killings of civilians, rape and other forms of sexual violence and attacks on camps for internally displaced persons. The M23’s atrocities have been condemned by the international community. The United Nations and human rights bodies have called for an end to the violence. They also demand accountability for the perpetrators.

    In sum, South African soldiers – alongside Malawians and Tanzanians – are in the DRC to assist the Congolese army in combating the armed groups and to protect civilians from violence and human rights abuses.

    Are the soldiers adequately prepared and equipped?

    Many questions have been asked about whether South African troops on the mission forces are adequately trained and equipped.
    Critics claim this deployment is suicidal.

    South African soldiers are well-trained and have served in numerous peace operations. Their extensive deployment means that they have accumulated valuable experience. They have been part of the UN Stabilisation Mission in the DR Congo, Monusco, almost since inception in 1999.

    Monusco forces are still present in the DRC, but in the process of withdrawing. Congolese president Félix Tshisekedi requested they leave because of their perceived ineffectiveness.

    Nonetheless, there are some valid concerns about the South Africans’ current level of preparedness for the DRC mission. Not least given the complex political situation. There are over 100 diverse armed groups involved. And the terrain is difficult.

    The combination of budget cuts, resource limitations, and the complex nature of the conflict raises questions about the South African National Defence Force’s ability to effectively achieve its objectives, and ensure the safety of its personnel.

    The force takes its own equipment on missions to ensure it is self-sufficient and can meet its specialised needs. The problem is that this equipment is old, leading to shortages due to maintenance problems. This affects the force’s ability to carry out its duties.

    Budget cuts for defence over the years, to less than 1% of GDP compared to the global average of 2%, have severely affected the military’s ability to maintain equipment, conduct training exercises and modernise its force. This has led to a decline in overall readiness.

    South African troops in the DRC lack essential resources, including adequate air support, attack helicopters and modern equipment. This limits their ability to respond quickly to threats and provide close air support for ground troops.

    Despite having one of the most capable air forces in Africa, it is unable to deploy its Gripen and Rooivalk helicopters because they have not been serviced and lack spare parts.

    The use of older equipment has also been less effective against the well-equipped M23.

    Besides being outgunned, the regional mission is also out-manned.

    The SADC mission in the DRC was authorised to have 5,000 troops from Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania. The actual deployment has fallen far short of this number. As of late January 2025, only about 1,300 troops had been deployed.



    Read more:
    Rwanda’s role in eastern DRC conflict: why international law is failing to end the fighting

    Where to from here?

    There are concerns in the DRC about the presence of multiple foreign forces, given the relative ineffectiveness of these interventions.

    There are also questions about the legitimacy of the mission. Rwanda has opposed the deployment, saying that the SAMIDRC, and specifically South Africa’s involvement, undermines regional unity and cooperation.

    The best approach to peace and stability in the DRC requires a concerted effort by regional actors – the DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Kenya and the Southern African Development Community – to address the underlying causes of the conflict. This requires political dialogue with the regional actors, the UN, the international community and, most importantly, the Congolese people.



    Read more:
    DRC conflict risks spreading: African leaders must push for solutions beyond military intervention

    As for South Africa, it is time for some critical reflection on the future roles of its military. The equipment shortages and challenges it faces raise serious concerns about the defence force’s ability to carry out its core mandate of protecting South Africa, its territorial integrity and its people in accordance with the constitution.

    The tragedy in the DRC highlights the dire need for the South African National Defence Force to be redesigned, modernised and funded to become more effective and capable, ready to meet the immediate challenges it faces (like ageing equipment) and ensure the security of South Africa.

    Lindy Heinecken does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. South African troops are dying in the DRC: why they’re there and what’s going wrong – https://theconversation.com/south-african-troops-are-dying-in-the-drc-why-theyre-there-and-whats-going-wrong-248696

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –