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Category: Reportage

  • MIL-OSI Global: Skilled migrants are leaving the U.S. for Canada — how can the north gain from the brain drain?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ashika Niraula, Senior Research Associate, Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration & Integration Program, Toronto Metropolitan University

    Skilled migrants and international students are leaving the United States for Canada in growing numbers. A March 2025 report by Statistics Canada reveals a sharp rise in the numbers of American non-citizen residents moving to Canada. Reasons given are largely restrictive U.S. immigration policies, visa caps and long wait times for green cards.

    This is a shift from earlier decades when American-born citizens dominated the trend. By 2019, nearly half of those making the move were U.S. non-citizen residents.

    Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s election win and early days in office, Google searches by American residents on how to move to Canada, New Zealand and Australia have surged.

    Several high-profile academics have relocated to Canadian universities amid growing concerns over threats to academic freedom.

    British Columbia recently announced plans to launch landmark policies to streamline the credential recognition process for internationally trained health-care professionals, particular American doctors and nurses.

    Skilled talent like health-care professionals, researchers and engineers are essential to building innovative, future-ready economies. But attracting them requires staying competitive in an increasingly global bid for talent.

    Global competition for talent

    In this global race for talent, Canada and Australia need to offer not only efficient immigration pathways but also faster credential recognition and better integration support.

    Yet both nations find themselves walking a tightrope. Once both celebrated as welcoming destinations for global talent, each country has experienced recent immigration restrictions and growing anti-immigration sentiments, undermining those reputations.



    Read more:
    Canada at a crossroads: Understanding the shifting sands of immigration attitudes

    What can these countries learn from each other to stay competitive and benefit from this talent flow?

    Research from Toronto Metropolitan University’s Migration and Integration Program shows Canada’s appeal for skilled migrants is rooted in a mix of practical and aspirational factors. This includes a combination of high living standards, the promise of better career prospects, more accessible permanent residency pathways and a broadly welcoming society.

    But for migrants in Canada, these goals are becoming harder to attain.

    A more cautious approach

    Since the pandemic, Canada’s immigration approach has shifted. During the early COVID-19 years, Canada was praised for its inclusive response, including recognizing immigrants as essential to economic recovery. Temporary workers, including essential workers, international student graduates and French-speaking immigrants, were offered new routes to permanent residency through a federal program.

    However, since 2024, Canada has taken a more cautious approach.

    New policy changes that target international students and cut temporary and permanent migration numbers have tarnished Canada’s global reputation as a welcoming place.

    While permanent residency is still more accessible than in the U.S., skilled migrants are increasingly questioning whether the wait for permanent residency is worth it.

    Australia visa rules slow things down

    Australia faces similar dilemmas. In late 2023, the government launched a new migration strategy to address critical workforce shortages in construction, tech and health care. The Skills in Demand visa promised faster processing and clearer pathways to permanent residency for workers in priority sectors.

    Yet a recent report by the Grattan institute warns that tighter eligibility rules risk excluding much-needed talent, potentially weakening Australia’s competitiveness.

    Growing visa delays are also noted to be an additional barrier that may deter both prospective migrants and employers.

    Working in jobs far below qualifications

    Migration data often tells a story of numbers, categories and eligibility thresholds. However, the human stories behind the numbers reveal deep systemic issues and missed opportunities. One recurring issue is the widespread phenomenon of deskilling.

    In both Canada and Australia, many skilled migrants often find themselves working in jobs far below their qualifications.

    These experiences are part of a pattern that affects not only individuals but also national economies, which lose out on the full potential of their skilled workforce.

    Credential recognition systems are opaque, inconsistent and frequently biased.

    Another overlooked issue is that many skilled migrants do not move alone. People arrive with spouses, children and sometimes elderly parents.

    Yet immigration and settlement systems in both countries are largely structured around individual economic migrants rather than families. In Canada, for instance, federally funded settlement services are mainly geared toward supporting only permanent residents.

    Many spouses, particularly women, face even greater barriers to employment. Issues also include things like high fees for visa processing for parents. Other considerations include children who may struggle with schooling and identity in unfamiliar environments.

    Housing shortages and high costs in major urban centres compound these challenges, pushing newcomers into unaffordable living conditions.

    All this contributes to growing disillusionment. Migrants initially drawn to Canada or Australia as alternatives to unwelcoming environments elsewhere may choose to still come, but it doesn’t mean they will stay.



    Read more:
    Canada halts new parent immigration sponsorships, keeping families apart

    Learning from each other: Canada and Australia

    The experiences of skilled migrants in Canada and Australia show that attracting talent is only half the battle. The real challenge is in retention and integration.

    Many countries like Germany, Japan, South Korea and some Gulf states have begun offering more competitive pathways to immigration along with promises of a work-life balance, streamlined visa programs and competitive salaries. This means skilled migrants are increasingly mobile.



    Read more:
    The states want a bigger say in skilled migration – but doing that actually leaves them worse off

    Australia has made strides in streamlining visa categories and targeting sectoral needs, while Canada has built a strong narrative around inclusion and multiculturalism.

    However, there is a need to combine Australia’s responsiveness and Canada’s inclusive ethos to build resilient migration systems.

    Build future-ready migration systems

    In an era defined by geopolitical uncertainties, countries can no longer afford to treat skilled migrants as temporary fixes or just economic inputs. They are people with aspirations, with families and with dreams.

    They must be seen and supported as future citizens. To build future-ready migration systems Canada must:

    • Ensure transparency and consistency in immigration pathways to reduce uncertainties caused by policy reversals and lengthy processing times.

    • Improve credential recognition and career support to help skilled migrants, including temporary residents, transition into roles that match their qualifications.

    • Develop regional settlement strategies to address where migrants settle and ensure equitable access to services, job markets and housing, especially outside major cities.

    • Adopt inclusive, intersectional policies that consider gender, race and class in shaping the migrant experience, including support for spouses, children and aging parents.

    • Foster collaborative and responsive policymaking. This involves connecting researchers, employers, community organizations and migrants to inform policy making.

    For Canada, the challenge ahead is clear. It’s not just about opening the door. It’s about making sure that once here, migrants have the support, rights and opportunities to walk through that door — and thrive.

    ​Ashika Niraula works as a Senior Research Associate at the Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration & Integration Program at Toronto Metropolitan University. The Skilled Migrant Decision Making Under Uncertainty project has received financial support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Insight Grant (435-2021-0752) and from the wider program of the Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration at Toronto Metropolitan University.

    Iori Hamada does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Skilled migrants are leaving the U.S. for Canada — how can the north gain from the brain drain? – https://theconversation.com/skilled-migrants-are-leaving-the-u-s-for-canada-how-can-the-north-gain-from-the-brain-drain-254435

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Investigators are increasingly using technology in conflict-related sexual assault cases

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Valerie Oosterveld, Professor, Faculty of Law, and Western Research Chair in International Criminal Justice, Western University

    In the last two weeks of February, humanitarian agencies reported 895 cases of conflict-related rape as M23 rebels advanced through the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to a United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees official, this was an average of more than 60 rapes a day.



    Read more:
    M23’s capture of Goma is the latest chapter in eastern Congo’s long-running war

    UNICEF officials reported similarly grim figures. Between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2, 2025, the number of rape cases treated across 42 health facilities in DRC jumped five-fold, with 30 per cent of these cases being children.

    While immediate responses are needed to stop the violence, provide health care to the survivors and assist the displaced, the pursuit of justice also plays a critical role.

    Investigative bodies, including the International Criminal Court (ICC), are increasingly using technology to investigate conflict-related sexual violence. In a recent research project, my team interviewed experts who specialize in conflict-related sexual violence investigations around the world. The research was supported by XCEPT, a conflict research program funded by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development.

    Investigating sexual violence

    The ICC’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, visited DRC at the end of February and met with sexual violence survivors. The ICC has the mandate to investigate rape, sexual slavery and other gender-based violence amounting to genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. The office had reactivated investigations in October 2024.

    Investigators start by speaking to survivors, following guidelines such as the 2023 Policy on Gender-Based Crimes or the Global Code of Conduct for Gathering and Using Information About Systematic and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence. The Global Code of Conduct is known as the Murad Code after Nobel Peace Prize recipient and advocate Nadia Murad.

    In our research, we found that survivors of conflict-related sexual violence are connecting with investigators through various technologies, such as directly using encrypted apps like Signal. Survivors also go through civil society organizations equipped to take video or electronic statements — Yazda, for example, which works with Yazidi survivors of ISIS crimes in northern Iraq — or via portals like the ICC’s OTPLink. The UN’s Commissions of Inquiry also encourage and receive email submissions.

    International courts and investigative bodies are also analyzing open-source information on conflict-related sexual violence, such as videos, photos and statements posted on online platforms. Guided by the Berkeley Protocol on Digital Open Source Investigations, this information can be useful to support witness statements, place alleged perpetrators at the scene of the violations and link incidents into a pattern of similar violence.

    For example, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria described how ISIS used the encrypted app Telegram and other online platforms to buy and sell captured Yazidi women and girls across the Iraq-Syria border to sustain its sabaya (sexual slavery) system.

    In Ukraine, our study found that the main technology-related concern in open-source data gathering is identifying AI-created and other artificially generated images, specifically designed and planted in the public domain as a form of disinformation or to compromise investigations.

    Face and voice recognition

    Conflict-related sexual violence is often perpetrated indoors which makes certain technologies like satellite or drone imagery less useful. However, other forms of technology have proven to be beneficial in Ukraine’s investigations. In particular, face and voice recognition software have supported efforts to identify alleged perpetrators.

    While Ukraine’s experience points to some successes, investigations into sexual violence committed by ISIS in northern Iraq have been hampered. This is partly due to the lack of automated translation software in the Yazidi language to facilitate the transcription and translation of testimonies.

    This speaks to the importance of developing software to translate minority languages spoken in armed conflict zones.

    Survivor concerns

    Survivors have expressed concerns about the turn to the digital. They fear that their identities and experiences may be revealed through hacking or poor data handling, which could put them at risk of reprisals from perpetrators or their accomplices. It could also lead to stigmatization and ostracization in some communities, undoing survivors’ efforts to rebuild their lives.

    To address these concerns, international courts and investigative bodies have adopted data protection protocols. However, the lack of a standardized framework for the use of technology in the investigation of conflict-related sexual violence remains a significant concern for the investigators we interviewed.

    Such a framework would incorporate best practices in supporting survivors providing evidence, tracking and preserving open source information and developing new technological applications.

    If there is to be justice for survivors of conflict-related rape in DRC and elsewhere, technology — provided it is used with great sensitivity — will likely be an important and timely aid.

    Valerie Oosterveld received funding for this research from the UK’s Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy, and Trends (XCEPT) research programme.

    – ref. Investigators are increasingly using technology in conflict-related sexual assault cases – https://theconversation.com/investigators-are-increasingly-using-technology-in-conflict-related-sexual-assault-cases-249227

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is Canada heading down a path that has caused the collapse of mighty civilizations in the past?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Daniel Hoyer, Senior Researcher, Historian and Complexity Scientist, University of Toronto

    Canada is, by nearly any measure, a large, advanced, prosperous nation. A founding member of the G7, Canada is one of the world’s most “advanced economies,” ranking fourth in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Better Life Index, which measures things like national health outcomes, security, safety and life satisfaction.

    However, all of this prosperity and ostensible stability can mask social tensions, which can simmer for years, even decades, before boiling over into widespread unrest, civil violence and even societal collapse.

    Along with more than a dozen collaborators as part of the Seshat: Global History Databank project, I have spent over a decade studying the rise and fall of societies from around the globe and throughout history. This provides a unique insight to understand the challenges facing modern nations.

    Our new organization, Societal Dynamics (SoDy), works to translate what we learn from observing historical patterns into lessons for today.

    Even the most powerful empires can collapse

    Devoting my time to studying historic crises has shown me just how fragile societies are. Even big, powerful, famous civilizations can succumb to crises.

    For instance, colleagues recently published a study comparing three large, wealthy imperial powers of the past: the Roman, Han and Aztec Empires.

    Historians consider these to be some of the most successful, wealthy, stable societies of the pre-modern world.

    They lasted centuries, controlled vast stretches of territory, oversaw innovations in technology, politics and philosophy and produced some of the most famous works of art and architecture from history that we still talk about today — the incredible Roman Colosseum, the stunning jade carvings and other artwork of the Han period and the amazing Aztec pyramids and intricate artwork.

    But not long after they reached their apex, all three of these mighty civilizations experienced devastating crises:

    Rome was torn apart by civil warfare starting in the early third century CE. Ambitious military generals from the provinces marched on each other, looking to gain even more power. They were supported by legions of loyal soldiers dissatisfied with their lot in life.

    Western Han imperial rule came to a crashing end in the ninth century CE when a wealthy and prominent courtier named Wang Mang led a successful coup. As in Rome, Wang rallied military leaders and officials frustrated in their ambitions. He amassed a large following of commoners weary of impoverishment by decrying the luxurious excesses of the Han court.

    Aztec authority was already weakened by civil strife by the time the invading Spanish armies arrived in 1519 CE. The Aztecs ultimately proved unable to withstand the vicious warfare and disease outbreaks that accompanied the Spanish arrival.

    Hidden vulnerabilities

    What happened to these once-mighty empires? The aforementioned study gives some answers. The authors explored the distribution of wealth and income in these empires, comparing it to the modern United States.

    They found that each of these empires permitted fairly high disparities to accumulate.

    In each case, the richest five per cent and one per cent of citizens controlled an outsized share of their society’s wealth. This leads to fairly high “gini index” values as well. The gini is a commonly used measure of inequality in nations — the higher the number up to one, the more inequitable a society is. For comparison, the current average gini among OECD countries is 0.32, notably lower than each of the four societies shown above.

    The researchers suggest this high level of inequality contributed to the eventual collapse of these empires.

    This is consistent with our own findings on the dynamics of crisis. Inequality tends to breed frustration as impoverishment spreads.

    It creates conflict as the upper classes become bloated with too many wealthy and powerful families vying for control of the vast spoils that accumulate at the top. It also erodes society’s ability to respond to acute shocks like ecological disasters or economic downturns as the government loses capacity and authority.

    If allowed to persist, it becomes more and more likely for the society to end in collapse.

    How does Canada compare?

    Canada today bears several similarities with these and other famous civilizations of the past — and that should make Canadians nervous.

    Canada, like the Romans, Han, Aztecs and many other once great societies, has maintained a relatively peaceful and secure rule over a large territory for a time. It’s generated a great deal of wealth, has facilitated the exchange of technology, ideas and movement of people over vast distances and has produced amazing works of art. But Canada has also allowed inequality to grow and linger for generations.

    My group has been exploring the historic patterns of wealth creation and distribution in different countries, including Canada. We focus on what’s known as the “Palma ratio,” generally considered a more reliable measure of inequality than the gini.

    The measurement quantifies the ratio of wealth or income between the richest 10 per cent and the poorest 40 per cent of citizens. Higher numbers indicate that the richest are capturing the lion’s share of a country’s overall wealth.

    Canada’s economy has been growing steadily as measured by GDP per capita — with a few notable exceptions — since the Second World War.

    Initially, inequality held steady, but starting in about 1980, the Palma ratio jumps up sharply. This suggests the bulk of this growth was making its way into the hands of the wealthy. After a downturn in the late 2000s, inequality has begun to grow again in recent years.

    By comparison, the U.S. has experienced similar trends, though without the momentary downturn in the 2000s. Note also that these two graphs show different levels — the Palma ratio in the U.S. in 2022 (the latest available data) is about 4.5, while it’s just over two in Canada.

    Heading down a dangerous path

    Most citizens living in the heyday of these once mighty empires probably thought that collapse was unfathomable, just as few living in the U.S. or Canada today feel that we’re headed that way.

    But there have been familiar signs growing in the U.S. in recent years. Americans appear to be further ahead on the road to a potential collapse than Canadians are, but not by that much.

    Canada is starting to exhibit many of these same indicators as well, including significant spikes in social unrest evident during the COVID-19 pandemic and the increasingly hostile rhetoric we have seen among Canadian politicians. Persistent, heightened material inequality stands out as core driver in all of these cases.



    Read more:
    The ‘freedom convoy’ protesters are a textbook case of ‘aggrieved entitlement’

    Canada remains, in many ways, a stable, thriving, modern democratic-socialist country. But it’s on a dangerous path.

    If Canada allows inequality continue to rise unchecked as it has over the last few generations, it risks ending up where Rome, Han, the Aztecs and hundreds of other societies have been before: widespread unrest, devastating violence and even complete societal collapse.

    As Canadians head to the polls, the country is at another crossroads. Will it continue down this all-too-familiar path, or will it take the opportunity to forge a different route and avoid the fate of the fallen societies of the past?

    Daniel Hoyer is director of SoDy and affiliated with ASRA Network, Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, and the SocialAI lab at the University of Toronto. He has received funding from: the Tricoastal Foundation; the Institute for Economics and Peace; and the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation.

    – ref. Is Canada heading down a path that has caused the collapse of mighty civilizations in the past? – https://theconversation.com/is-canada-heading-down-a-path-that-has-caused-the-collapse-of-mighty-civilizations-in-the-past-254378

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rwanda’s genocide: why remembering needs to be free of politics – lessons from survivors

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Samantha Lakin, Lecturer, Clark University

    Memory and politics are inherently intertwined and can never be fully separated in post-atrocity and post-genocidal contexts. They are also dynamic and ever-changing. The interplay between memory and politics is, therefore, prone to manipulation, exaggeration or misuse by clever actors to meet a range of political ends.

    This applies too to Rwanda’s commemoration period (Kwibuka). It runs from April to July each year, dedicated to remembering the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi.

    I have been researching genocide memory in Rwanda for more than 12 years. My research focuses on memorialisation, meaning-making, and senses of justice rendered for individuals who lived through the genocide, documenting personal relationships with Kwibuka.

    Remembrance poses a challenging paradox. Often, when new conflicts arise, memorialisation falls into two distinct and competing categories. There is politically motivated commemoration, where memory is used as cover to advance a political agenda. Then, there are memory practices that transcend politics. These two types of memory coexist at the same time and place.

    Drawing from more than a decade of original research on genocide memory in Rwanda, I explore commemoration practices that transcend politics, and identify why Kwibuka is still needed and how individuals keep Kwibuka relevant in today’s challenging socio-political climate.

    Three ways genocide remembrance transcends politics

    Firstly, Kwibuka can be a freeing practice for survivors.

    For many Rwandans, genocide remembrance practices like Kwibuka still hold meaning. According to interviews I held with several Rwandan genocide survivors based in the US and in Rwanda, the commemoration period can be surprisingly and unexpectedly freeing.

    One Rwandan woman in her early 40s who survived rape and was forced into hiding during the genocide explains:

    When survivors gather for Kwibuka, we feel like we are allowed to express our grief in ways that might seem bizarre to outsiders. As Rwandans, culturally we are expected to be strong and not overly emotional. Yet during Kwibuka, we cry, we tell stories, and we even laugh and tell jokes. During Kwibuka we are not judged for it. This is what it looks like for survivors to move forward.

    Secondly, there is genocide memory as a responsibility.

    Some survivors continue to engage in commemoration as an outward form of obligation to the victims lost during the genocide.

    According to interviews with several early representatives of Ibuka, the main survivors’ organisation in Rwanda, established in 1995, right after the genocide, most survivors didn’t feel ready to put their own needs aside. They doubted that justice would ever be achieved. Yet, by and large, they did it anyway for the good of the collective, or out of respect for the leaders of the movement who were advocating for their rights.

    The obligation to victims remains meaningful to genocide survivors today. When sharing her testimony at the UN commemoration on 7 April 2025, genocide survivor Germaine Tuyisenge Müller discussed her personal obligation to victims.

    Many of us still have guilt. We do not know why we survived. We tell our stories out of responsibility.

    She was only 9 years old during the genocide.

    Out of 100 people I interviewed during my research from 2013 to 2020 in Rwanda, the majority feel it’s important to attend Kwibuka ceremonies. The main reason they give is to support their neighbours and their community.

    This perspective represents a change that took place some time after 2014, the 20th Kwibuka, from negative incentives to attend (pressure, surveillance from the government and potential consequences), to Kwibuka being perceived as a positive collective good, with relatively little harm in attending ceremonies. As one Rwandan I interviewed in 2017 put it:

    We go because it holds communal value, it’s better to go rather than cause a problem in the community, and it isn’t a hassle for me to go Kwibuka.

    Thirdly, genocide remembrance provides agency.

    Many Rwandan survivors view engaging in Kwibuka as a way to have agency in the present, contrary to the genocide period when they had no control over their fate. They exercise agency through commitments and actions that support victims who experience violence today.

    The majority of interview respondents shared that they reflect on different things while attending commemorations, even when official stories told might not represent the diverse range of Rwandan experiences during the genocide. These include Rwandans from mixed marriages, or individuals falsely accused of committing acts of genocide in 1994.

    Shaping commemoration

    How can external actors and concerned citizens support efforts that shape commemoration that transcends politics?

    While it may feel that there is not much “we” can do, as ordinary global citizens, we each play an important role in protecting and promoting truth in the wake of those who manipulate history to harm survivors and gain politically. But we must be discerning. When we learn, listen to and amplify survivor voices, we must focus on two main aspects. First, are people’s stories authentic? Second, are they dedicated to pursuing justice and peace, and not causing division and conflict?

    Additionally, building peace is a long struggle. It cannot happen overnight, nor can we expect it to.

    Genocide survivors from Rwanda teach us that it takes active dedication and ongoing, daily work from individuals and organisations to confront and challenge rising manipulation by those who seek to promote violence and conflict. Suffering in the world is increasing. Survivor stories and testimonies shared around the world during Kwibuka become even more important to inform analysis and prevention of modern-day crimes and human rights abuses.

    By remembering and honouring the struggles and sacrifices made for the right to gather and remember, the international community and stakeholders dedicated to pursuing peace can learn from the forms of remembrance that transcend politics. This includes its critical role in protecting historical truth from manipulation, one of the most significant challenges faced today.

    Samantha Lakin, PhD, is a specialist in comparative genocide and a Senior Fellow at The Center for Peace, Democracy, and Development (CPDD) at the University of Massachusetts Boston. Please note: the author is writing in her personal capacity as a genocide scholar, and her views do not represent those of her current employer.

    – ref. Rwanda’s genocide: why remembering needs to be free of politics – lessons from survivors – https://theconversation.com/rwandas-genocide-why-remembering-needs-to-be-free-of-politics-lessons-from-survivors-254745

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: First fossil pangolin tracks discovered in South Africa

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Charles Helm, Research Associate, African Centre for Coastal Palaeoscience, Nelson Mandela University

    A team of scientists who study vertebrate fossil tracks and traces on South Africa’s southern Cape coast have identified the world’s first fossil pangolin trackway, with the help of Indigenous Master Trackers from Namibia. Ichnologists Charles Helm, Clive Thompson and Jan De Vynck tell the story.

    What did you find?

    A fossil trackway east of Still Bay in South Africa’s Western Cape province was found in 2018 by a colleague and was brought to our attention. It was found on the surface of a loose block of aeolianite rock (formed from hardened sand) that had come to rest near the high-tide mark in a private nature reserve.

    We studied it but our cautious approach required that we could not confidently pin down what had made the track. It remained enigmatic.

    How did you eventually identify it?

    In 2023, we were working with two Ju/’hoansi San colleagues from north-eastern Namibia, #oma Daqm and /uce Nǂamce, who have been interpreting tracks in the Kalahari all their lives. They are certified as Indigenous Master Trackers and we consider them to be among the finest trackers in the world today. We’d called on their expertise to help us understand more about the fossil tracks on the Cape south coast. One example of the insights they provided was of hyena tracks, and we have published on this together.



    Read more:
    First fossil hyena tracks found in South Africa – how expert animal trackers helped

    We showed them the intriguing trackway, which consisted of eight tracks and two scuff marks made, apparently, by the animal’s tail. They examined the track-bearing surface at length, conversed with one another for some time, and then made their pronouncement: the trackway had been registered by a pangolin.

    This was an astonishing claim, as no fossilised pangolin tracks had previously been recorded anywhere in the world.

    It also confirms that pangolins were once distributed across a larger range than they are now.

    We then created three-dimensional digital models of the trackway, using a technique called photogrammetry.

    We shared these images with other tracking and pangolin experts in southern Africa (like CyberTracker, Tracker Academy, the African Pangolin Working Group, wildlife guides and a pangolin researcher at the Tswalu Foundation). There were no dissenting voices: not surprisingly, it was agreed that our San colleagues were highly likely correct in their interpretation.

    There is something really special about a fossil trackway, compared with fossil bones – it seems alive, as if the animal could have registered the tracks yesterday, rather than so long ago.

    What are the characteristics of pangolin tracks?

    Pangolins are mostly bipedal (walking on two legs), with a distinctive, relatively ponderous gait. Track size and shape, the distance between the tracks, and the width of the trackway all provide useful clues, as do the tail scuff marks and the absence of obvious digit impressions. A pangolin hindfoot track, in the words of our Master Tracker colleagues, looks as if “a round stick had been poked into the ground”. And being slightly wider at the front end, it has a slightly triangular shape.

    Pangolin walking (video in slow motion)

    Our Master Tracker colleagues are familiar with the tracks of Temminck’s pangolin (Smutsia temminckii) in the Kalahari, which was the probable species that registered the tracks that are now evident in stone on the Cape coast. Other trackmaker candidates, such as a serval with its slim straddle, were considered, but could be excluded or regarded as far less likely.

    How old is the fossil track and how do you know?

    The surface would have consisted of loose dune sand when the pangolin walked on it. Now it’s cemented into rock. We work with a colleague, Andrew Carr, at the University of Leicester in the UK. He uses a technique known as optically stimulated luminescence to obtain the age of rocks in the area.

    The results he provided for the region suggest that these tracks were made between 90,000 and 140,000 years ago, during the “Ice Ages”. For much of this time the coastline might have been as much as 100km south of its present location.

    What’s important about this find?

    Firstly, this demonstrates what you can uncover when you bring together different kinds of knowledge: our western scientific approach combined with the remarkable skill sets of the Master Trackers, which have been inculcated in them from a very young age.

    Without them, the trackway would have remained enigmatic, and would have deteriorated in quality due to erosion without the trackmaker ever being identified.



    Read more:
    Fossil treasure chest: how to preserve the geoheritage of South Africa’s Cape coast

    Secondly, we hope it brings attention to the plight of the pangolin in modern times. There are eight extant pangolin species in the world today, and all are considered to be threatened with extinction. Pangolin meat is regarded as a delicacy, pangolin scales are used in traditional medicines, and pangolins are among the most trafficked wild animals on earth. Large numbers in Africa are hunted for their meat every year.

    What does the future hold?

    Our San Indigenous Master Tracker colleagues have just completed their third visit to the southern Cape coast, thanks to funding from the Discovery Wilderness Trust.

    The results have once again been both unexpected and stupendous, and their tracking skills have again been demonstrated to be unparalleled. Many more publications will undoubtedly ensue, bringing their expertise to the attention of the wider scientific community and anyone interested in our fossil heritage or in ancient hunter-gatherer traditions.

    We hope that our partnership continues to lead to our mutual benefit as we probe the secrets of the Pleistocene epoch by following the spoor of ancient animals.

    Clive Thompson is a trustee of the Discovery Wilderness Trust, a non-profit organization that supports environmental conservation and the fostering of tracking skills.

    Charles Helm and Jan Carlo De Vynck do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. First fossil pangolin tracks discovered in South Africa – https://theconversation.com/first-fossil-pangolin-tracks-discovered-in-south-africa-253383

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 80 years after Benito Mussolini’s death, what can democracies today learn from his fascist rise?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matthew Sharpe, Associate Professor in Philosophy, Australian Catholic University

    Hitler and Mussolini in Munich, Germany, June 18, 1940. Everett Collection/Shutterstock

    This Monday marks 80 years since Italian dictator Benito Mussolini was killed in an Italian village towards the end of the Second World War in 1945. The following day, his body was publicly desecrated in Milan.

    Il Duce, as Mussolini was known, was Hitler’s inspiration.
    State Library of Victoria

    Given the scale of Adolf Hitler’s atrocities, our image of fascism today has largely been shaped by Nazism. Yet, Mussolini preceded Hitler. Il Duce, as Mussolini was known, was Hitler’s inspiration.

    Today, as commentators, bloggers and scholars are debating whether the governments of US President Donald Trump, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin are “fascist”, we can learn from Il Duce’s career about how democracies fail and dictators consolidate autocratic rule.

    The early years

    The term “fascist” itself originated around the time of Mussolini’s founding in 1914 of the Fasci d’Azione Rivoluzionaria, a militaristic group promoting Italy’s entry into the First World War.

    Mussolini had been raised in a leftist family. Before WWI, he edited and wrote for socialist newspapers. Yet, from early on, the young rebel was also attracted to radically anti-democratic thinkers like Friedrich Nietzsche, George Sorel, and Wilfred Pareto.

    When WWI broke out, Mussolini broke from the socialists, who opposed Italy’s involvement in the conflict. Like Hitler, he fought in the war. Mussolini considered his front-line experience as formative for his future ideas around fascism. His war experience led him to imagine making Italy great again – an imperial power worthy of the heritage of ancient Rome.

    In March 1919, Mussolini formed the Fasci Italiani di Combattimento in Milan. This group brought together a motley collection of war veterans, primarily interested in fighting the socialists and communists. They were organised in squadristi (squads), which would become known for their black shirts and violence – they forced many of their targets to drink castor oil.

    The political success of Mussolini’s fascist ideals, however, was neither instant nor inevitable. In the 1919 Italian elections, Mussolini received so few votes, communists held a mock funeral march outside his house to celebrate his political death.

    The rise to power and the march on Rome

    Fascism became a part of national political life in 1920-21, following waves of industrial and agricultural strikes and worker occupations of land and factories.

    As a result, rural and industrial elites turned to the fascist squadristi to break strikes and combat workers’ organisations. Fascist squads also overturned the results of democratic elections in Bologna and Cremona, preventing left-wing candidates from assuming office.

    Mussolini’s political capital, remarkably, was boosted by this violence. He was invited to enter Prime Minister Ivanoe Bonomi’s first government in July 1921.

    The following October, fascists occupied the towns of Bolzano and Trento. The liberals, socialists and Italian monarchy were indecisive in the face of these provocations, allowing Mussolini to seize the moment. Mustering the fascist squads, he ordered the famous “march on Rome” in late October 2022 to demand he be appointed prime minister.

    All the evidence suggests if the government had intervened, the march on Rome would have disbanded. It was a bold piece of political theatre. Nevertheless, fearing civil war — and the communists more than the black shirts — King Victor Emmanuel III caved in without a shot being fired.

    Mussolini was made leader of a new government on October 31, 1922.

    The consolidation of dictatorship

    Like Hitler in 1933, Mussolini’s rule started as the head of a coalition government including non-fascist parties. Yet, with the repressive powers of the state now at his disposal, Mussolini exploited the division among his rivals and gradually consolidated power.

    In 1923, the communist party was targeted with mass arrests and the fascist squads were brought under official state control as a paramilitary force. Mussolini began to use state powers to surveil all non-fascist political parties.

    In the 1924 general election, with fascist militia menacingly manning the polls, Il Duce won 65% of the vote.

    Then, in June, socialist leader Giacomo Matteotti was kidnapped and murdered by black shirts. When investigations pointed to Mussolini’s responsibility, he at first denied any knowledge of the killing. Months later, however, Mussolini proudly admitted responsibility for the deed, celebrating the fascists’ brutality. He faced no legal or political consequences.

    The last nail in the coffin of Italy’s enfeebled democracy came in late 1926. Following an assassination attempt in which Mussolini’s nose was grazed (he wore a bandage for a time afterwards), Mussolini definitively banned all political opposition.

    The “lesser evil”

    Following his death in April 1945, Mussolini’s dictatorship was often portrayed as “dictatorship-lite”, a “lesser evil” compared to Nazism or Stalinist Russia. This narrative, bolstered by German crimes against Italians in the last months of the war, has understandably been embraced by many Italians.

    Yet, Mussolini’s was the first regime to advertise itself as totalitarian. Styling himself as a “man of destiny”, Mussolini claimed that fascism embodied the “spiritual renewal” of the Italian people.

    His goal of making Italy a power again required total control of the state. His 1932 “Doctrine of Fascism” describes the need “to exercise power and to command” all administrative, policing, and judicial institutions. This included censorship of the press and educational institutions.

    Mussolini announcing Italy’s declaration of war on France and Britain in 1940.
    Australian War Memorial

    While portraying fascism as a “populist” movement, Mussolini also shut down independent trade unions, bailed out big banks, and prevented the right to strike. As a result, economic inequality between Italians actually grew wider under his rule.

    Mussolini also pursued an imperialist dream by invading Ethiopia. Defying international conventions, Il Duce’s troops used chemical weapons and summary executions to quell acts of resistance. Over 700,000 Ethiopians are estimated by scholars to have been killed by the invaders, with around 35,000 forced into internment camps.

    Italian Ca-111 bombers over Ethiopia in the 1930s.
    Getty Images/Wikimedia Commons

    Mussolini’s fascists ran over 30 concentration camps from 1926–45, almost all of them offshore. Some 50–70,000 Libyans alone died in camps set up under Italy’s brutal colonial regime from 1929–34. Many more died through executions, starvation and ethnic cleansing.

    When the notorious SS leader Heinrich Himmler visited Libya in in 1939, he deemed the Italian colony a successful model to emulate.

    And after Mussolini’s forces aided the Axis invasions of Yugoslavia, Albania and Russia in the Second World War, more than 80,000 more prisoners were interned in camps. At the camp on the Croatian Island of Rab, more than 3,000 prisoners died in grossly inhumane conditions in 1942–43, at a mortality rate higher than the Nazi camp at Buchenwald.

    Slovenian prisoner of the Italian Rab concentration camp.
    Archives, Museum of Modern History, Ljubljana/Wikimedia Commons

    From late 1943, Italian fascists also participated in the rounding up of over 7,000 Italian Jews to transfer to Auschwitz. Almost all of them were murdered.

    Following the war, even with Il Duce dead, few perpetrators faced justice for these atrocities.

    Lessons for democracies after 80 years

    The infamy of the crimes associated with the word “fascism” has meant that few people today claim the label – even those attracted to the same kinds of authoritarian, ethnonationalist politics.

    Mussolini, even more than Hitler, can seem a bombastic fool, with his uniform, theatrical gestures, stylised hyper-masculinity and patented steely jaw.

    Yet, one of the lessons of Mussolini’s career is that such political adventurists are only as strong as the democratic opposition allows. To fail to take them seriously is to enable their success.

    Mussolini pushed his luck time and again between 1920 and 1926. As the wonderful recent teleseries of his ascent, Mussolini, Figlio del Seculo shows, time and again, the opposition failed to concertedly oppose the fascists’ attacks on democratic norms and institutions. Then it was too late.

    Democracies mostly fall over time, by a thousand cuts and shifts of the goalposts of what is considered “normal”. Fascism, moreover, depends in no small measure on shameless political deception, including the readiness to conceal its own most radical intentions.

    Fascist “strongmen” like Mussolini accumulate power thanks to people’s inabilities to believe that the barbarisation of political life – including open violence against opponents – could happen in their societies.

    And there is a final, unsettling lesson of Mussolini’s career. Il Duce was a skilled propagandist who portrayed himself as leading a popular revolt to restore respectable values. He was able to win widespread popular support, including among the elites, even as he destroyed Italian democracy.

    Yet, if the monarchy, military, other political parties and the church had attempted a principled, united opposition to fascism early enough, most of Mussolini’s crimes would likely have been avoided.

    Matthew Sharpe has in the past (2013-17) received funding from the ARC to study religion and politics in the contemporary world.

    – ref. 80 years after Benito Mussolini’s death, what can democracies today learn from his fascist rise? – https://theconversation.com/80-years-after-benito-mussolinis-death-what-can-democracies-today-learn-from-his-fascist-rise-251154

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Warfare is Band of Brothers for the ‘war on terror’ generation

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Edwards, Reader in Modern Political History, Loughborough University

    Back in 1998, Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private Ryan was widely acclaimed for the bloody realism of its opening scenes. In Warfare, co-directors Ray Mendoza and Alex Garland have achieved something very similar for the Iraq war (2003-2011).

    This time, however, the assault on the senses lasts for almost the entire duration of the film – around 95 mins. The result is an unrelenting depiction of 21st-century battle which both invokes and disrupts the generic conventions of the combat film.

    Warfare begins by staking a claim to authenticity. The opening credits tell us that it is based entirely on the memories of those who were there: the members of a US Navy Seal platoon involved in an operation in the immediate aftermath of the 2006 Battle of Ramadi.

    In pre-release interviews, Mendoza – a Seal veteran and former member of the platoon – explained that Warfare was made as a purposeful attempt to provide a visual account of what happened for a comrade (Elliott Miller, played in the film by Cosmo Jarvis) who lost his memory after a horrific battlefield injury.

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    It is by no means the only war film to find inspiration in the memories of veterans. From The Best Years of Our Lives (1946) to Lone Survivor (2013), traumatic first-hand experiences have long informed Hollywood’s depictions of war and its aftermath.

    But in Warfare this framing has a very deliberate consequence. It telescopes the action so that questions of broader political context are necessarily sidelined in favour of the visceral experiences of those on the ground. The Seals are there because they are there – no other rationale for their mission is offered.

    Towards the start, Warfare also follows some well-trodden ground when it pointedly lingers on the boredom before battle. This is reminiscent of another work of filmic war memoir, 2005’s Jarhead.

    The Seals sweat and swear until, suddenly, chaos is catalysed. What follows is among the most intense depictions of combat ever seen on the big screen. Besieged by an ever-present, yet largely out-of-sight enemy, the embattled soldiers fight to protect one another, rescue their wounded and escape. As they do so, the fog of war descends.

    This is where the film most clearly reveals its debt to the war film genre. Indeed, for all the originality of its screenplay Warfare actually invokes several familiar generic motifs of the combat film. The most obvious is the focus on a platoon, but two others also stand out.

    The trailer for Warfare.

    One concerns the film’s narrative centre: a band of isolated and outnumbered American warriors battling heroically against the odds. A popular motif in American culture since at least the 1836 Battle of the Alamo (during the Texas Revolution), it has been used and reused over the years in countless westerns and war films, perhaps most explicitly in 2016’s 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi. In its underlying structure, the story told by Warfare is informed by this very same trope.

    A second familiar motif is the film’s Shakespearean meditation on the brotherhood of battle. Like 2001’s HBO mini-series Band of Brothers (about a company of second world war paratroopers), this is a story of men at war. Blood is shed and unbreakable bonds are forged.

    It is here though that Garland and Mendoza also disrupt. For where Henry V offers his “happy few” a validating cause, no such higher purpose reveals itself in Warfare.

    In fact, these undoubtedly brave warriors are clearly unwelcome invaders. The fraught interactions with the frightened (and unnamed) Iraqi civilians whose home they have occupied makes this obvious, as do the persistent attempts by Iraqi insurgents to kill them.

    Whatever happens, therefore, one thing is certain: these Seals, unlike their second world war predecessors, will not be greeted as liberators by flag-waving locals casting garlands of flowers.

    This is where Warfare reveals that for all its telescoped focus it is not apolitical after all. Quite the contrary; the film is inescapably a product of its moment.

    The fighting “out there”, says Warfare, offered no redeeming purpose and so for veterans all that is left are memories of the love and the loyalty between those who went into battle, together.

    Seen like this, Warfare’s place in the genre also now becomes clear. This is a Band of Brothers for those who fought the war on terror. It’s a point made especially apparent in the closing credits which feature photos of the real Seal veterans next to those of the actors who played them (not unlike how each episode of Band of Brothers included veterans’ testimony).

    Warfare’s structure, focus, and elisions speak volumes about the chasm in American culture – particularly in the eyes of veterans – that separates the “good war” of the 1940s from the far less popular conflicts of the early 21st century.

    Sam Edwards has previously received funding from the ESRC, the US-UK Fulbright Commission, the US Army Military History Institute, and the US Naval War College. Sam is a Trustee of The D-Day Story (Portsmouth) and of Sulgrave Manor (Northamptonshire), he is a Governor of The American Library (Norwich), he is Co-Editor of the British Journal for Military History, and he is Vice-Chair of the Transatlantic Studies Association.

    – ref. Warfare is Band of Brothers for the ‘war on terror’ generation – https://theconversation.com/warfare-is-band-of-brothers-for-the-war-on-terror-generation-255349

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s tariffs: poor workers in countries like Cambodia will be among the biggest losers

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sabina Lawreniuk, Principal Research Fellow, University of Nottingham

    I Love Coffee dot Today/Shutterstock

    Politicians and economists have been pretty vocal in their response to the ongoing saga of Donald Trump’s tariffs. But much less has been heard from the world’s poorest workers about how they will be affected.

    For when the US president first set out his reciprocal tariffs – later paused for 90 days – some of the highest rates were for countries like Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%) and Cambodia (49%).

    These are places that make huge amounts of the clothes we wear, and even the reduced 10% tariff could be a big blow to their economies – and the people who depend on them.

    Because aside from the well known sweatshop conditions suffered by many workers in these places, brands and manufacturers often offset new costs by passing them on to workers in the form of lower wages and higher demands.

    This phenomenon, sometimes referred to as “social downgrading”, was seen during the pandemic, when garment workers around the world faced mass layoffs and even worse working conditions to protect corporate profits when consumer demand decreased.

    And those working conditions are already challenging. The minimum wage for one of Cambodia’s 1 million garment workers (from a total population of 16 million) is just US$208 (£155.50) per month.

    Around 80% of those workers are women, whose wages often support children and elderly parents, who don’t have the security of a state pension safety net.

    It is these workers and their families who may end losing the most in Trump’s trade war. But they are used to geopolitics affecting their everyday lives, having suffered the impact of tariffs fairly recently – from the EU.

    In 2020, Cambodia’s duty-free, quota-free access to the EU market (usually granted to developing countries) was partially revoked as a punitive response to human rights concerns. Tariffs averaging 11% were added to some product lines, mostly clothing and footwear, which covered about 20% of Cambodia’s total exports to the EU.

    The Cambodian government immediately responded by cutting public holidays and workplace benefits to try offset any increase in costs.

    It has since slowed the rate of minimum wage growth to below inflation. Both actions slashed real wages and made the challenge of economic survival even harder for those who depend on the industry.

    Now, as Trump’s latest tariffs take hold – even at the lower rate of 10% – many garment and footwear industry workers will fear for their jobs.

    But even those “lucky” enough to keep them will face mounting pressures to produce more, and more quickly, to offset rising costs – at the direct expense of their own financial security and wellbeing.

    The idea that tariffs will ultimately bring jobs back to the US ignores that fact that these jobs – precarious, underpaid and frequently dangerous – are not the kind of jobs that any American would want.

    International supply chains are deeply embedded.
    PX Media/Shutterstock

    Supply chained

    And the evidence suggests that if even if they did want them, international manufacturing supply chains are more deeply embedded than people might think.

    After the EU imposed its tariffs on Cambodia for example, brands could have looked to circumvent those added costs by relocating production. As it turned out, the volume of trade between Cambodia and the EU has remained steady since – because sometimes there’s no alternative.

    With Cambodia, companies have not been willing or able to shift production to competitors like Bangladesh, Myanmar or Sri Lanka, partly due to the political volatility in those countries.

    Added to this is the fact that clothes production has become highly specialised geographically. Cambodia’s distance from the EU means it focuses mainly on seasonal fashion “basics” such as T-shirts and knitwear.

    Closer countries like Turkey and Morocco concentrate on the latest fast fashion trends, as their shorter shipping routes mean they can be quicker to respond to changing tastes.

    It is not that easy to unsettle the systems and markets that are already in place.

    As a result, in the global garment industry at least, Trump’s tariffs may not trigger a complete restructuring of the world’s supply chains. In the short term, they are instead likely to cause great uncertainty, reducing investors’ appetite for long-term planning, and reducing their confidence.

    Orders may slow and prices may rise. And Cambodians making the world’s T-shirts and trainers will face even more pressure on their wages and working conditions.

    Sabina Lawreniuk receives funding from UKRI through a Future Leaders Fellowship (grant ref MR/ W013797/1).

    – ref. Trump’s tariffs: poor workers in countries like Cambodia will be among the biggest losers – https://theconversation.com/trumps-tariffs-poor-workers-in-countries-like-cambodia-will-be-among-the-biggest-losers-254408

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why the energy transition won’t be green until mine waste disasters are prevented

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eva Marquis, Research Fellow in Critical Minerals and Circular Economy, University of Exeter

    On February 18, contamination in the Kafue river, Zambia, led to a mass death of fish. Its water turned a deathly grey and adjacent farmland was poisoned. The drinking water it supplied to half a million residents of the town of Kitwe was suddenly cut off.

    Reports suggest that this catastrophe was caused by the failure of the Chambishi tailings storage facility. Tailings are mixed liquid-solid mine wastes that remain after the valuable materials are removed from the crushed ores.

    They are often stored in impoundments, held in place by dams made of rock (and other mine waste), that ideally are managed and kept safe. This storage is necessary because tailings often contain high concentrations of potentially toxic, radioactive and corrosive elements.

    But tailings storage facilities can and do fail. The Chambishi failure was caused by a break in a wall between two tailings ponds containing acidic water. Fifty million litres of this water, equivalent to 20,000 Olympic swimming pools, spilled into a tributary of the Kafue river, and then into the river itself.

    The Kafue is a lifeline, flowing through 990 miles (1,600km) of Zambia, providing water for around 5 million people and supporting fishing and agriculture. That lifeline is still threatened by the ongoing damage of this failure.

    Chambishi is not alone. It is one of six major tailings incidents documented in the first three months of 2025, with others documented in Bolivia, Ghana, Philippines and Indonesia.

    Tailings and transitions

    Tailings are a produce of society’s voracious appetite for metals and materials. With growing demand for technologies for the energy transition, digitalisation and development, production of metals and materials and the volumes of tailings are set to vastly increase.

    Identifying suitable sites for safe storage is likely to become more challenging. Space will become more of a premium as more tailings are produced, and risks will evolve with changing climate and growing global population. For instance, storage facility plans developed before mining begins may no longer be suitable for their intended use over the life of the operation.

    The ability to safely store and manage tailings is a key factor in the development of metals projects. By extension, that’s fundamental to enabling an equitable and responsible energy transition.

    Initiatives to improve the management and monitoring of tailings, developed by independent organisations and industry bodies, such as the Global Industry Standard for Tailings Management and the International Council on Mining and Mineral’s Tailings Management Good Practice Guide. Although these initiatives are comprehensive, they do not minimise risks from past tailings storage practices or address the full costs involved.

    Tailing ponds.
    iofoto/Shutterstock

    A broad range of technical, social and environmental uncertainties have been linked to the management of tailings storage facilities. These uncertainties, combined with financial practices such as discounting future costs, can result in future costs (such as long-term tailings management and rehabilitation) being underestimated in mining project cash flows, and sizeable costs for future generations.

    Without a fully understanding of the true long-term costs, making the economic case for improved tailings management becomes that much harder.

    Reducing risks and improving outcomes

    Improved mechanisms for quantifying the cost of tailings in the short, medium and long term, whether tailings storage facilities fail or not, are essential for adequately financing these long-term legacies of mining. Mechanisms to reduce volumes of waste produced not only have the potential to improve project economics over the lifetime of a mine but can also enhance social and environmental outcomes both during and beyond the life of a mine.

    Tailings can be used as sources of aggregate materials for construction and critical metals for the green transition, and for carbon capture and storage. These opportunities will be context specific, however, and there will not be a one-size-fits-all approach to tailings reduction and responsible management.

    New mining paradigms, such as selective mining through precision drilling or in-situ electrokinetic “keyhole” techniques and extraction of metals from geothermal waters, may give us the ability to extract some metals without producing tailings.

    Innovations in tailings storage, like using tailings to fill worked-out underground mining tunnels, can remove tailings from the surface environment, eliminating risk from landslides, dust, seepages and other hazards. Even with these efforts, tailings storage facilities will continue to be used and will need to be managed.

    Reducing, reclaiming and regenerating the environments that have been negatively affected by tailings will require collaborative approaches. Financing is a clear barrier to responsible tailings management. Without knowing the true social, environmental and economic costs of tailings legacies, the ability to overcome this barrier to responsible management is hampered.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Eva Marquis receives funding from EPSRC, NERC, and Innovate UK.

    Karen Hudson-Edwards receives funding from NERC, BBSRC, EPSRC, the Technology Strategy Board (Innovate UK), the Royal Society and the EU Horizon 2020 programme.

    – ref. Why the energy transition won’t be green until mine waste disasters are prevented – https://theconversation.com/why-the-energy-transition-wont-be-green-until-mine-waste-disasters-are-prevented-252436

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Leading by example: how the rich and powerful can inspire more climate action

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Hampton, Researcher, Environmental Geography, University of Oxford

    In a survey covering the UK, China, Sweden and Brazil, a majority of people agreed that we need to drastically change the way we live and how society operates, to address climate change. Another study involving more than 130,000 people across 125 countries found that 69% said they would donate 1% of their income to climate action.

    However, when asked in the same survey what proportion of others in their country would be willing to do the same, the average estimate was only 43%. This underestimation of others’ concern is known as pluralistic ignorance.

    This fuels a vicious cycle: silence begets silence. People hesitate to advocate for policies like cycle lanes or meat taxes, fearing social isolation, while politicians avoid championing measures seen as “career-limiting”. The result is a democracy trapped by unspoken consensus.

    Research on UK MPs reveals how this plays out. Even climate-conscious politicians frame low-carbon lifestyles such as avoiding flying or eating meat as extreme, wary of hypocrisy accusations if their personal choices fall short. This “greenhushing” isn’t just political caution – it’s a failure to recognise that most people are primed to follow bold examples.

    When leaders visibly adopt low-carbon behaviour, they can help address pluralistic ignorance. For instance, MPs who cycle or opt for the train instead of taking short-haul flights don’t just reduce emissions; they signal that such choices are normal, desirable, and shared.

    The invisible transition

    While individual actions matter, systemic change requires policies to steer collective transformation. Consider the UK’s early phase-out of inefficient lightbulbs: a 1.26 million tonne annual CO₂ reduction achieved not through personal sacrifice, but by banning the sale of halogen bulbs that emitted more heat than light.

    Progress on lightbulbs, renewable electricity or more efficient fridges are all part of an “invisible transition” towards a lower-carbon society – a series of changes already woven into our economy that often go unnoticed by the public. Reframing these achievements as collective victories – your home insulation, our renewable grid – can build momentum for tougher measures.

    For decades, fridges got bigger yet became more efficient and used less electricity.
    Prostock-studio / shutterstock

    Building on progress

    Public willingness to make sacrifices for climate action is closely tied to perceptions of fairness and necessity. Crucially, people want to see that their own efforts are being matched by others, especially those with larger carbon footprints. This is why leaders and other high-profile people should visibly lead by example, demonstrating commitment and helping to establish new social norms.

    Research shows that public support for subsidies for heat pumps, solar panels, electric vehicles and other low-carbon technologies often depends on whether these subsidies are perceived as fair and inclusive.

    Most agree that subsidies must help ensure that all households, especially those with lower incomes, can be involved. This makes it especially important for wealthy and high profile people to lead by example.

    Coalitions of the visible: uniting everyday leaders

    Leaders who take low-carbon actions are seen as more credible, not less. The most effective leadership frames climate action as pragmatic and rooted in everyday life, rather than as a test of virtue.

    Research by the NGO Climate Outreach demonstrates that shared, relatable stories – such as parents campaigning for solar panels at their children’s schools – can shift social norms and build momentum for collective action. These “narrative workshops” have shown that people respond most strongly when climate solutions are presented through the lens of their own values and aspirations, rather than as abstract technical fixes.

    The Green Salon Collective’s Mirror Talkers initiative is another creative example: by placing climate conversation prompts on salon mirrors, hairdressers are empowered to spark everyday discussions with clients. This kind of grassroots engagement helps normalise climate conversations in places you wouldn’t expect.

    Overcoming pluralistic ignorance requires leaders to articulate a new story – one that acknowledges the “invisible transition” already underway while inviting everyone to help finish the job.

    This means equipping leaders at every level with the tools and confidence to adopt and advocate for low-carbon choices. It also means normalising the reality that climate leadership is not about perfection, but about consistency and transparency.

    Figures like Clover Hogan, founder of Force of Nature, and Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief, openly share their own “climate confessions” – acknowledging the challenges, contradictions and imperfect choices that come with striving for a low-carbon life. By embracing and communicating their imperfections, they demonstrate that visible, relatable climate leadership is about honesty and persistence, helping to shift expectations and inspire others to take action in their own lives.

    Authentic climate leadership can transform public understanding of climate solutions. By illuminating the transition already in progress – and their own part in it – leaders can transform pluralistic ignorance into pluralistic action.

    The task is not to convince people to care about climate change, but to show them that they already do, and to make visible the collective progress that is often hidden in plain sight.

    Sam Hampton receives funding from the Economics and Social Research Council. He is affiliated with the University of Oxford and University of Bath.

    Tina Fawcett currently receives funding from UKRI.

    – ref. Leading by example: how the rich and powerful can inspire more climate action – https://theconversation.com/leading-by-example-how-the-rich-and-powerful-can-inspire-more-climate-action-255168

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tove Jansson’s Moomin books explore the power of adventure and transformation

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sue Walsh, Lecturer, Department of English Literature, University of Reading

    This year marks the 80th anniversary of the first Moomin tale, The Moomins and the Great Flood. In the book, Moomintroll and his friends embark on a journey to find their home after a great flood devastates Moominvalley, meeting odd creatures and new friends along their journey.

    The book was first published in creator Tove Jansson’s native Swedish in 1945. However, the first Moomin book to have an English edition was in fact the third of the Moomin books, Trollkarlens Hatt (The Hobgoblin’s Hat). It was translated by Jansson’s friend Elizabeth Portch and reached its widest English-speaking audience when it was published by Puffin Books in 1961 as Finn Family Moomintroll.

    At the beginning of the story Moomintroll finds a magical top hat. It can transform anything that is placed inside of it into something else entirely – and so the adventures begin.

    This is part of a series of articles celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Moomins. Want to celebrate their birthday with us? Join The Conversation and a group of experts on May 23 in Bradford for a screening of Moomins on the Riviera and a discussion of the refugee experience in Tove Jansson’s work. Click here for more information and tickets.

    Unlike the Swedish-language edition, Portch’s translation of Finn Family Moomintroll begins with a letter from Moominmamma. It’s written in a curly cursive and dotted with love-hearts and an image of an apparently “hand-drawn” troll. The letter is addressed to a “dear child” who is “overseas”.

    In it, Moominmamma expresses disbelief at the idea that there may not be any Moomins “there over” and that the child she is addressing may “not even know what a troll is” (hence the illustration).

    Moominmamma’s wonder at the differences in custom between her own land and “your country” is based on an assumption that the two must be somewhat alike. Similarly, her explanation of what Moomintrolls are depends on their difference from the “usual common trolls”, which means there must be familial similarity between them.

    The Moomins and the Great Flood was Jansson’s first Moomins book.

    Both Moominmamma’s wonder at and explanation of difference assume an underlying essential similarity or sameness between Moominvalley, where she lives, and the reader’s home. This is significant in a story that explores ideas of foreignness and translation, change and transformation.

    Though the adventures in Finn Family Moomintroll might be said to only truly begin on the spring morning when Moomintroll, Sniff and Snufkin find “a tall black hat”, the book opens with the Moomins settling down for their winter hibernation and closes with the valley in autumn.

    Creator of The Moomins, Tove Jansson in 1970.
    Per Olov Jansson/Wiki Commons, CC BY-SA

    The changes wrought by the Hobgoblin’s hat are “quite different” because “you never know beforehand” what they will be. However, their extreme nature is framed and contained by a world in which there are known and predictable changes in the seasons, as well as routine – though sometimes dramatic – changes in the weather.

    The Hemulen is unperturbed by the hat’s transformation of eggshells into fluffy little clouds that Moomintroll and his friends are able to ride. That’s because he is “so used to [them] doing extraordinary things”. But when Moomintroll is transformed by the hat into “a very strange animal indeed”, so much so that his friends do not recognise him, it’s a very different matter.

    A moment of real jeopardy occurs when Moomintroll’s own mother does not seem to recognise him either. But this is soon dispelled when Moominmamma looks “into his frightened eyes for a very long time” and quietly declares: “Yes, you are my Moomintroll.”

    This moment of recognition breaks the spell and Moomintroll changes back into “his old self again”. One of the crucial features of the hat is the changes it makes are only temporary and this, together with Moominmamma’s reassurance that she will “always know [Moomintroll], whatever happens”, suggests an ultimately unchanging essence to things that cannot be denied.

    Changelessness as deadening

    On the other hand, the book suggests that some change is to be embraced.

    Sniff’s desire for things to stay the same “for ever and ever” is portrayed as immature and wrong-headed. As is the Muskrat’s obsessive quest for peace and stillness which ends up with his apparent, though temporary, transformation into a monster.

    Snufkin’s point that “life is not peaceful” offers a gentle rebuke to the Hemulen, who also wishes to “live his life in peace and quiet”. But perhaps the clearest indication of the book’s attitude to changelessness is the monstrous Groke. She is motivated by an unwavering drive to recover the “King’s Ruby”, not because this thing which “changes colour all the time” is “the most beautiful thing in the world”, but because it is “the most expensive”.

    The Groke’s inability to appreciate the ruby aesthetically is presented as being rooted in her own immutability. That the Groke’s hostility to change is itself deadening, becomes evident when she sits “motionless” before the Moomins and their friends, staring at them in a way that makes them feel “she would wait for ever” and eventually departs leaving the ground behind her frozen in the wrong season.

    This, then, is key. Adventure, transformation and change in Finn Family Moomintroll are both necessary and desirable, but they are also contained within a reassuring frame of reliable predictability. The final lines of the English translation are: “It is autumn in Moomin Valley, for how else can spring come back again?”

    Sue Walsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tove Jansson’s Moomin books explore the power of adventure and transformation – https://theconversation.com/tove-janssons-moomin-books-explore-the-power-of-adventure-and-transformation-245969

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why you don’t need to stress about cortisol ruining your waistline – or your face

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Craig Doig, Associate Professor of Metabolic Health, Nottingham Trent University

    tommaso lizzul/Shutterstock

    If you’ve been unfortunate enough to scroll through TikTok lately, the algorithm may have convinced you that cortisol, your body’s main stress hormone, is ruining your life.

    Yes, according to social media content creators, stress is giving you a repulsive “cortisol belly” and puffing up your sad “cortisol face.” And, of course, this is what’s holding us all back from achieving the full influencer, ideal dream life. If it weren’t for my raging cortisol levels, I’m sure I’d be knee-deep in Lamborghinis and beating off admirers with a stick by now.

    But is there any scientific evidence behind the cortisol craze? After all, this is just the latest in a long line of reasons social media has given us to believe we are inferior to the living gods of TikTok. Or maybe, just maybe, this is another grift designed to harvest likes, sell dodgy merch and drive engagement. Surely not.

    Cortisol is a natural hormone produced by your adrenal glands, located just above your kidneys. For millennia, humans have relied on cortisol – in fact, we can’t survive without it. Most of the time, it helps regulate our daily rhythms and behaviour.

    And yes, it’s true that stress (whether caused by an approaching sabre toothed tiger or having a high-pressure job) rapidly and reliably triggers cortisol release. But this isn’t bad. Cortisol isn’t trying to ruin your summer body, it’s trying to keep you alive and give you the energy to run or fight.

    That said, chronically elevated cortisol can contribute to some serious health issues, including weight gain. And to be very clear: if you’re experiencing symptoms of consistently high cortisol, you should be in conversation with a qualified healthcare professional.

    So yes, cortisol has its downsides – but then again, so does everything in excess. Even TikTok.

    Research shows that people with sustained high cortisol levels tend to store more fat in the abdominal area and around the face. This was first described nearly a century ago – in 1932, by neurosurgeon Harvey Cushing (don’t bother looking him up, he’s not on socials).

    But this applies to Cushing’s disease, a rare medical disorder. The cortisol released from everyday stress doesn’t even come close to the levels or duration seen in Cushing’s.

    Also, let’s not pretend your face or belly fat is solely cortisol’s fault. Fat distribution is the result of a complex mix of genetics, diet, sleep, exercise and hormones. Blaming one hormone for everything is like blaming the rise of air fryers for global warming.

    Chill out about cortisol

    If you’re genuinely concerned about stress or its effects on your health, I have good news: you don’t need to buy anything or follow the “cortisol detox” advice of social media influencers.

    Here are some stress-reducing tips. They are simple. They are boring. And they work:

    Get decent sleep – regularly.

    Exercise – regularly.

    Eat a balanced diet – regularly.

    Relax – a little.

    And if something feels off, talk to your doctor.

    “Cortisol belly” and “cortisol face” might sound catchy, but they reduce incredibly complex biological processes into bite-sized insecurities. Social media’s obsession with cortisol isn’t about health, it’s about content and clicks.

    Stress is real, but don’t let a billionaire influencer who wakes up at 3:53am to mainline turmeric tell you your face is “hormonal” and your stomach is “inflamed”.

    You don’t need to fix yourself with trendy hacks. Just put the phone down and chill. Which, ironically, might be the most effective cortisol-lowering advice of all.

    Craig Doig has received funding from The Physiological Society, Society for Endocrinology and the Defence Medical Services.

    – ref. Why you don’t need to stress about cortisol ruining your waistline – or your face – https://theconversation.com/why-you-dont-need-to-stress-about-cortisol-ruining-your-waistline-or-your-face-254335

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: India and Pakistan tension escalates with suspension of historic water treaty

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Haines, Associate Professor in the History of Risk and Disaster, UCL

    India has taken the highly significant step of suspending the 1960 Indus waters treaty, which governs water sharing with Pakistan, as part of its response to the April 22 terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed at least 26 people.

    India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, said that “the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”.

    India holds Pakistan responsible for the attack, and has responded by putting in place several other measures including telling Pakistani nationals to leave the country.

    The attack happened in Pahalgam in the part of Kashmir controlled by India. Both India and Pakistan claim the region, which has been the site of several military conflicts since 1947 and a long-running insurgency since the 1990s.

    The thorny question of shared rivers — a legacy of the partition of India and Pakistan at independence from British rule in 1947 — is now entangled with the larger, and escalating, dispute between the counties.

    A formal letter from India’s water resources ministry cited both “sustained cross border terrorism by Pakistan” and Pakistan’s refusal to renegotiate the terms of the treaty as key reasons for its suspension.

    The treaty suspension could harm Pakistani agriculture in the short term, and seriously disrupt downstream irrigation water supplies to farmers. Significantly, the decision abruptly changes the treaty’s status from an agreement that has been largely (if not fully) insulated from the decades-long conflict between India and Pakistan.

    The 1960 treaty splits the management of the transnational Indus River basin between the two countries. India gained full rights over the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, three tributaries of the Indus River known collectively as the eastern rivers. Pakistan gained most of the rights over three western rivers – the Indus main stem and two more tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab.

    Depoliticising water, and building towards peace in Kashmir, were two starting points for the eight years of World Bank-sponsored negotiations that produced the treaty. The treaty’s success has been to make water sharing a bureaucratic process and reducing the political heat.

    Reporting on attacks on tourists in Kashmir.

    More recently, growing disagreement has stemmed from India’s right to build some hydropower plants on the western rivers. Pakistan has objected to Indian project designs, arguing that they breach the terms of the treaty. India has accused Pakistan of intransigence in blocking its projects.

    Since 2023, when India demanded amendments to the treaty, the two countries have held inconclusive talks. The suspension of the treaty is a new move, but also a logical development of increasing bilateral tensions over the treaty, which was kept separate from security issues for decades.

    Indian politicians threatened to reduce water supplies to Pakistan in response to terrorist attacks in 2016 and 2019. The threat to punish Pakistan is likely to play well in India while public shock and anger over the attack is fresh. It also distracts attention from questions about possible Indian intelligence failures.

    But previous threats stopped short of putting the Indus waters treaty into abeyance, so the suspension now needs to be taken seriously.

    The impact will vary depending on how long it lasts. With the treaty suspended, India could change the way it operates existing water-control infrastructure on the western rivers.

    Its engineers could flush sediment out of the reservoir of the upstream Kishenganga hydroelectric project and then refill the reservoir over a period of days. Previously, under the treaty, this could only be done during the peak monsoon period when water levels are highest.

    It could now happen earlier, refilling reservoirs just when downstream farmers in Pakistan, who depend heavily on river water for irrigation, need a plentiful supply at the beginning of the crop-sowing season. India could also stop sharing water-flow data with Pakistan, making it harder for the latter to plan the management of its own hydropower and flood-control infrastructure.

    Longer term, India could construct bigger projects on the western rivers that do not need to comply with the Indus waters treaty’s restrictions, more seriously reducing water availability in Pakistan. It would take years, though, for India to build these projects.

    What does India hope to gain?

    India stands to gain from using the treaty as leverage. The demand that Pakistan “abjure its support for cross-border terrorism” holds the resumption of water cooperation hostage to progress on a wider point of bilateral conflict, and strengthens India’s hand in renegotiating the treaty.

    Internationally, treaty suspension may seem a comparatively measured response by India. Other forms of signalling displeasure, such as nuclear posturing, are too reputationally risky for a country that has worked hard to project itself as a responsible nuclear-armed state.

    But Indian leaders will be aware that stopping the flow of the Indus waters is a potential red line for Pakistan and that Indian decisions about water sharing could goad Pakistan into nuclear threats.

    India’s decision to suspend the water treaty has already predictably pushed Pakistan to make a subtle nuclear threat on April 24. It suggested that blocking or diverting water allocated to Pakistan under the treaty would be an “act of war,” and that it would consider the “complete spectrum of national power” as a response.

    An escalation of rhetoric has already ensued between the two countries, with Pakistan announcing that it would “exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India… in abeyance”, including the Simla agreement that ended the 1971 war between India and Pakistan.

    Fears of escalation

    There are fears that the current crisis could follow the path of the dangerous escalation seen in 2019, when Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, authorised an airstrike on Pakistani soil following a terror attack that killed dozens of Indian security personnel. Pakistan responded with airstrikes on Indian-administered Kashmir before both sides found a way to deescalate the situation.

    Today, the US, a traditional mediator between these two nations at crisis moments, may play a hands-off role. However, new facilitators such as China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE seemingly played a part in winding down tensions in 2019, and could step in again.

    On concluding the Indus waters negotiations in 1960, then Indian prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, spoke of the treaty as “a happy symbol not only in this domain of the use of the Indus valley waters, but in the larger co-operation between the two countries”. The logic is now reversed. The current Indian government has woven water sharing and conflict back together.

    Daniel Haines has received funding from United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) for his work on South Asian history and water politics via a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellowship and an AHRC-ESRC-FCO Knowledge Exchange Fellowship.

    Kate Sullivan de Estrada does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. India and Pakistan tension escalates with suspension of historic water treaty – https://theconversation.com/india-and-pakistan-tension-escalates-with-suspension-of-historic-water-treaty-255331

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Jordan joins regional push to sideline Islamist opposition

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rory McCarthy, Associate Professor in Politics and Islam, Durham University

    The Jordanian authorities have banned the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition movement in the kingdom, in a major new crackdown. On Wednesday April 23, security forces raided Brotherhood offices, confiscating assets and property, and outlawed all of the group’s activities.

    One week earlier, 16 Brotherhood members were arrested for allegedly plotting attacks on targets inside Jordan using rockets and drones. The Brotherhood, whose members Jordanian interior minister Mazen al-Faraya says “operate in the shadows and engage in activities that could undermine stability and security”, has denied any links to the attack plots.

    The ban on the Brotherhood, an Islamist movement that wants a greater role for religion in public life, comes at a time when the Jordanian government is facing intense pressure over the war in Gaza.

    The Brotherhood organised months of demonstrations in solidarity with Palestinians. It has also been vocal in its support for the Palestinian armed group Hamas, and has demanded the cancellation of Jordan’s peace treaty with Israel.

    At the same time, Jordan’s King Abdullah II has come under heavy pressure from the Donald Trump administration in the US to resettle Palestinians from the occupied Gaza Strip and West Bank. If he were to agree, the move would risk being seen as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause.

    The Jordanian authorities have had an uneasy relationship with the Brotherhood since the late 1980s, when the kingdom’s political system opened up. They have looked to curb its influence.

    In 2016, the Brotherhood’s headquarters in the capital, Amman, was closed and its assets were transferred to a new organisation called the Association of the Society of the Muslim Brotherhood, known as the “permitted” Muslim Brotherhood. As ideological splits emerged in the movement, the authorities have tried to exploit internal divisions.

    The latest crackdown represents a striking repressive turn. It marks a shift away from containing the movement to excluding it from public life.

    Yet the Brotherhood remains popular. In September 2024, the Islamic Action Front, the political party affiliated with the movement, surprised observers by winning parliamentary elections. It took 31 seats in the 138-seat parliament, securing victory in constituencies across the country in its best election performance in more than three decades.

    Its success was largely down to the Brotherhood’s demonstrations in support of Palestinians. These demonstrations resonated in Jordan, where around half the population is of Palestinian origin. The party also benefited from changes in the electoral laws prior to the election, which gave more weight to political parties and less to independent candidates.

    But under Jordan’s authoritarian system, the king holds most of the power, especially in internal security and foreign affairs. The palace tightly controls political life. So the Islamic Action Front was not invited to join the new government, which is made up of pro-monarchy parties.

    The key question now is whether the authorities will also ban the Islamic Action Front, despite its electoral gains.

    Conflict with the crown

    Even before the latest crackdown, Islamists in Jordan feared a confrontation with the authorities. Many suspected the palace wanted to close the Brotherhood movement and leave a weakened party that might be more easily contained.

    During a visit to Jordan shortly after the elections in September, one senior Islamic Action Front figure told me: “They [the monarchy] just want a party in a superficial form. A party without any presence.”

    Although the Brotherhood had been under pressure, it was still able to operate most of its activities. Senior party members even took part in a royal committee on “political modernisation” in 2021, which drew up reforms to change the electoral laws to strengthen political parties.

    Yet many in the Brotherhood feared a confrontation with the palace was coming. One senior Brotherhood figure told me in October 2024: “The Brotherhood is a vast, widespread organisation with a social and a political presence. A clash between the state and the Brotherhood would have negative effects on society and on the legitimacy of the political system.”

    Jordan’s Brotherhood is not alone in facing a crisis. Other Islamist organisations across the region are experiencing political setbacks, more than a decade after the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings seemed to offer them new opportunities.

    In Tunisia, where a democratic transition has been sharply reversed since 2021, dozens of leaders from the Islamist Ennahda party have been jailed.

    The arrests were part of a broad wave of repression against regime critics, including politicians, judges, lawyers and human rights activists. Ennahda, which spent a decade in government between 2011 and 2021, has suffered internal splits.

    In Morocco, the Justice and Development party, an Islamist party which also spent a decade in government from 2011, suffered a heavy defeat in the most recent elections in 2021.

    The party’s losses were partly a result of restrictions at the time of the vote. These included new rules about how seats were apportioned and the fact that some party candidates were disqualified from running.

    But the losses were also because of internal disputes after Prime Minister Saadeddine Othmani signed a normalisation agreement with Israel in 2020 to avoid a confrontation with the monarchy, which controls foreign affairs.

    In Kuwait, parliament was suspended in 2024 because the ruling emir, Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah, complained about political gridlock. This kept all opposition parties, including Islamists, out of the political process. And in Algeria, Islamist parties have been co-opted or marginalised since the bitter civil war of the 1990s.

    Opinion polls show that many people in the Middle East want to see a significant role for religion in public life. But rulers across the region are increasingly wary of Islamist parties, which want not only to introduce a more conservative social agenda but to challenge undemocratic regimes.

    Rory McCarthy receives funding for his academic research from the British Academy and the Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. Jordan joins regional push to sideline Islamist opposition – https://theconversation.com/jordan-joins-regional-push-to-sideline-islamist-opposition-255243

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Project 2025 became the blueprint for Donald Trump’s second term

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in US politics and international security, University of Portsmouth

    Throughout the 2024 presidential election campaign, Donald Trump denied claims he intended to shape his second administration’s policies around Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s blueprint for a renewed conservative America. But despite his repeated denials, Trump 2.0 has adopted much of Project 2025 into the White House’s agenda.

    The Heritage Foundation, the right-wing Washington think tank which published Project 2025, has provided policy guidance for Republican presidents since the Reagan administration. Despite the foundation’s longevity, Project 2025 has met with opposition from many quarters.

    The 900-page publication, Mandate for Leadership: the Conservative Promise, was published in 2023. It went largely under the radar until Democrats and civil liberty champions established Stop Project 2025 during the presidential campaign. Essentially, Project 2025 consists of policy recommendations for each department of the executive branch.

    The project has several broad objectives. It aims to reassert presidential power by removing federal agencies’ independence and appointing political loyalists rather than career civil servants. It sets out to dismantle the administrative state by cancelling initiatives and projects that do not match conservative aims.

    It reinforces traditional conservative family values and rolls back on LGBTQ+ and reproductive rights. It removes regulatory constraints aligned with climate and environmental protections and weakens consumer protection laws. And it calls for increased deportations of illegal aliens and the imposition of harsh immigration restrictions.

    Even before he had taken office, Trump and his team sought to replace career-long specialists in federal agencies with those that matched his own beliefs. His transition team used Project 2025 to guide its appointment of officials for the forthcoming administration. Reports quoting insiders within Trump’s team say that the team consulted a database of Trump loyalists created by the Heritage Foundation to fill vacancies.

    Contributors to Project 2025 were also appointed to key roles. These have included including border tsar, Tom Homan, and CIA director John Ratcliffe. Brendan Carr, the Trump-appointed chairman of the Federal Communications Committee, wrote a chapter of Project 2025 on the committee.

    The principal author of Project 2025, Russ Vought, has been appointed as director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) – the nerve centre of the federal government’s expenditure. Vought’s influence within the administration has led one journalist to call him “the real mastermind behind Trump’s imperial presidency”.


    How is Donald Trump’s presidency shaping up after 100 days? Here’s what the experts think. If you like what you see, sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter.

    The alignment of Trump’s policy decisions and Project 2025’s objectives continued after he was inaugurated on January 20. The raft of executive orders issued by Trump during the first few weeks reflected many of Project 2025’s ambitions.

    CNN analysed the 53 executive orders signed by Trump in his first week as president and concluded that 36 of those orders mirrored proposals within the Heritage Foundation’s brief. The alignment spread across numerous departments.

    Trump’s controversial reciprocal tariffs on US imported goods match Project 2025’s desire for free trade and its belief that the World Trade Organization’s most favoured nation principle is unfair. Although both Trump tariffs and Project 2025 have a foundation in economic nationalism, Trump has favoured a broad and aggressive approach compared to Project 2025’s more targeted aims.

    The savings to federal expenditure proposed by Doge, the unofficial Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk, are also broadly covered within the paper. A theme running throughout Project 2025 is ensuring value for taxpayers by reducing unnecessary government expenditure.

    But while a large amount of Project 2025 has already been incorporated into the administration’s policies, there is still a significant number of recommendations and initiatives that remain to be implemented.

    What’s still to come?

    While Trump has already ended the use of federal taxpayer dollars to fund or promote elective abortion through Executive Order 14182, Project 2025 calls for stronger initiatives to support a pro-life position by threatening to withhold funding to states if they fail to adhere to new guidelines. These penalties could be incurred through states failing to report to the Center for Disease and Control Prevention (CDC) data on how many abortions take place within the state, for example.

    The administration has also not yet matched Project 2025’s calls for increasing the defence budget to 5% of GDP. Earlier this month, however, Trump and his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, promised that their next budget proposal would include a $1 trillion defence budget. Hegseth posted on X that the money would be spent on ‘lethality and readiness.’

    Trump’s recent criticisms of the refusal by Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, to lower interest rates might suggest that he agrees with Project 2025’s criticism of the Federal Reserve and its recommendation that it be abolished. But the market’s negative reaction to Trump’s attack on Powell looks likely to end any prospect of eradicating the Fed.

    Perhaps a greater concern to Americans is Project 2025’s designs for social security. As part of the focus on fiscal stability, the authors of Project 2025 have recommended that the retirement age be increased from 67 to 69. Social security reforms have been discussed by the administration but yet to be put into place.

    When questioned, Republican legislators have stopped short of telling constituents that Social Security is safe from change. After all, Trump maintained that he has no plans to either reduce social security payments or increase the retirement age.

    However, just this week, Trump and Doge have announced cuts to the Social Security Administration (SSA), the body that administers payments. This has led to concerns for the former SSA director, Martin O’Malley, who suggested that the cuts would mean that future payments of vital benefits might be delayed.

    Where the administration turns next is unclear. There are hundreds of policy recommendations within the 900-page document, some of which have been implemented in full, others only in part.

    Nonetheless, Project 2025 has acted as a blueprint for much of the new Trump administration’s policies, even though the White House has shown some reluctance to incorporate all of the recommendations within the project.

    There are signs, however, that the administration has not yet finished with Project 2025 and that the conservative wishlist continues to influence the administration’s policymaking decisions.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Project 2025 became the blueprint for Donald Trump’s second term – https://theconversation.com/how-project-2025-became-the-blueprint-for-donald-trumps-second-term-255149

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: In talking with Tehran, Trump is reversing course on Iran – could a new nuclear deal be next?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jeffrey Fields, Associate Professor of the Practice of International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

    A mural on the outer walls of the former US embassy in Tehran depicts two men in negotiation. Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

    Negotiators from Iran and the United States are set to meet again in Oman on April 26, prompting hopes the two countries might be moving, albeit tentatively, toward a new nuclear accord.

    The scheduled talks follow the two previous rounds of indirect negotiations that have taken place under the new Trump administration. Those discussions were deemed to have yielded enough progress to merit sending nuclear experts from both sides to begin outlining the specifics of a potential framework for a deal.

    The development is particularly notable given that Trump, in 2018, unilaterally walked the U.S. away from a multilateral agreement with Iran. That deal, negotiated during the Obama presidency, put restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. Trump{,} instead turned to a policy that involved tightening the financial screws on Iran through enhanced sanctions while issuing implicit military threats.

    But that approach failed to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program.

    Now, rather than revive the maximum pressure policy of his first term, Trump – ever keen to be seen as a dealmaker – has given his team the green light for the renewed diplomacy and even reportedly rebuffed, for now, Israel’s desire to launch military strikes against Tehran.

    Jaw-jaw over war-war

    The turn to diplomacy returns Iran-US relations to where they began during the Obama administration, with attempts to encourage Iran to curb or eliminate its ability to enrich uranium.

    Only this time, with the U.S. having left the previous deal in 2018, Iran has had seven years to improve on its enrichment capability and stockpile vastly more uranium than had been allowed under the abandoned accord.

    As a long-time expert on U.S. foreign policy and nuclear nonproliferation, I believe Trump has a unique opportunity to not only reinstate a similar nuclear agreement to the one he rejected, but also forge a more encompassing deal – and foster better relations with the Islamic Republic in the process.

    The front pages of Iran’s newspapers in a sidewalk newsstand in Tehran, Iran, on April 13, 2025.
    Alireza/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

    There are real signs that a potential deal could be in the offing, and it is certainly true that Trump likes the optics of dealmaking.

    But an agreement is by no means certain. Any progress toward a deal will be challenged by a number of factors, not least internal divisions and opposition within the Trump administration and skepticism among some in the Islamic Republic, along with uncertainty over a succession plan for the aging Ayatollah Khamenei.

    Conservative hawks are still abundant in both countries and could yet derail any easing of diplomatic tensions.

    A checkered diplomatic past

    There are also decades of mistrust to overcome.

    It is an understatement to say that the U.S. and Iran have had a fraught relationship, such as it is, since the Iranian revolution of 1979 and takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran the same year.

    Many Iranians would say relations have been strained since 1953, when the U.S. and the United Kingdom orchestrated the overthrow of Mohammad Mossadegh, the democratically elected prime minister of Iran.

    Washington and Tehran have not had formal diplomatic relations since 1979, and the two countries have been locked in a decadeslong battle for influence in the Middle East. Today, tensions remain high over Iranian support for a so-called axis of resistance against the West and in particular U.S. interests in the Middle East. That axis includes Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

    For its part, Tehran has long bristled at American hegemony in the region, including its resolute support for Israel and its history of military action. In recent years that U.S. action has included the direct assaults on Iranian assets and personnel. In particular, Tehran is still angry about the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

    Standing atop these various disputes, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have proved a constant source of contention for the United States and Israel, the latter being the only nuclear power in the region.

    The prospect of warmer relations between the two sides first emerged during the Obama administration – though Iran sounded out the Bush administration in 2003 only to be rebuffed.

    U.S. diplomats began making contact with Iranian counterparts in 2009 when Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns met with an Iranian negotiator in Geneva. The so-called P5+1 began direct negotiations with Iran in 2013. This paved the way for the eventual Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in 2015. In that agreement – concluded by the U.S., Iran, China, Russia and a slew of European nations – Iran agreed to restrictions on its nuclear program, including limits on the level to which it could enrich uranium, which was capped well short of what would be necessary for a nuclear weapon. In return, multilateral and bilateral U.S. sanctions would be removed.

    Many observers saw it as a win-win, with the restraints on a burgeoning nuclear power coupled with hopes that greater economic engagement with the international community that might temper some of Iran’s more provocative foreign policy behavior.

    Yet Israel and Saudi Arabia worried the deal did not entirely eliminate Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, and right-wing critics in the U.S. complained it did not address Iran’s ballistic missile programs or support for militant groups in the region.

    Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, draws a red line on a graphic of a bomb while discussing Iran at the United Nations on Sept. 27, 2012.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    When Trump first took office in 2016, he and his foreign policy team pledged to reverse Obama’s course and close the door on any diplomatic opening. Making good on his pledge, Trump unilaterally withdrew U.S. support for the JCPOA despite Iran’s continued compliance with the terms of the agreement and reinstated sanctions.

    Donald the dealmaker?

    So what has changed? Well, several things.

    While Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA was welcomed by Republicans, it did nothing to stop Iran from enhancing its ability to enrich uranium.

    Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, eager to transform its image and diversify economically, now supports a deal it opposed during the Obama administration.

    In this second term, Trump’s anti-Iran impulses are still there. But despite his rhetoric of a military option should a deal not be struck, Trump has on numerous occasions stated his opposition to U.S. involvement in another war in the Middle East.

    In addition, Iran has suffered a number of blows in recent years that has left it more isolated in the region. Iranian-aligned Hamas and Hezbollah have been seriously weakened as a result of military action by Israel. Meanwhile, strikes within Iran by Israel have shown the potential reach of Israeli missiles – and the apparent willingness of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to use them. Further, the removal of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria has deprived Iran of another regional ally.

    Tehran is also contending with a more fragile domestic economy than it had during negotiations for JCPOA.

    With Iran weakened regionally and Trump’s main global focus being China, a diplomatic avenue with Iran seems entirely in line with Trump’s view of himself as a dealmaker.

    A deal is not a given

    With two rounds of meetings completed and the move now to more technical aspects of a possible agreement negotiated by experts, there appears to be a credible window of opportunity for diplomacy.

    This could mean a new agreement that retains the core aspects of the deal Trump previously abandoned. I’m not convinced a new deal will look any different from the previous in terms of the enrichment aspect.

    There are still a number of potential roadblocks standing in the way of any potential deal, however.

    As was the case with Trump’s meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his first term, the president seems to be less interested in details than spectacle. While it was quite amazing for an American leader to meet with his North Korean counterpart, ultimately, no policy meaningfully changed because of it.

    On Iran and other issues, the president displays little patience for complicated policy details. Complicating matters is that the U.S. administration is riven by intense factionalism, with many Iran hawks who would be seemingly opposed to a deal – including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz. They could rub up against newly confirmed Undersecretary of Defense for policy Elbridge Colby and Vice President JD Vance, both of whom have in the past advocated for a more pro-diplomacy line on Iran.

    As has become a common theme in Trump administration foreign policy – even with its own allies on issues like trade – it’s unclear what a Trump administration policy on Iran actually is, and whether a political commitment exists to carry through any ultimate deal.

    Top Trump foreign policy negotiator Steve Witkoff, who has no national security experience, has exemplified this tension. Tasked with leading negotiations with Iran, Witkoff has already having been forced to walk back his contention that the U.S. was only seeking to cap the level of uranium enrichment rather than eliminate the entirety of the program.

    For its part, Iran has proved that it is serious about diplomacy, previously having accepted Barack Obama’s “extended hand.”

    But Tehran is unlikely to capitulate on core interests or allow itself to be humiliated by the terms of any agreement.

    Ultimately, the main question to watch is whether a deal with Iran is to be concluded by pragmatists – and then to what extent, narrow or expansive – or derailed by hawks within the administration.

    Jeffrey Fields receives funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

    – ref. In talking with Tehran, Trump is reversing course on Iran – could a new nuclear deal be next? – https://theconversation.com/in-talking-with-tehran-trump-is-reversing-course-on-iran-could-a-new-nuclear-deal-be-next-254770

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tensions over Kashmir and a warming planet have placed the Indus Waters Treaty on life support

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Fazlul Haq, Postdoctoral Scholar at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University

    The Indus River Valley in the cold desert of Ladakh, India. Pallava Bagla/Getty Images

    In 1995, World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin warned that whereas the conflicts of the previous 100 years had been over oil, “the wars of the next century will be fought over water.”

    Thirty years on, that prediction is being tested in one of the world’s most volatile regions: Kashmir.

    On April 24, 2025, the government of India announced that it would downgrade diplomatic ties with its neighbor Pakistan over an attack by militants in Kashmir that killed 26 tourists. As part of that cooling of relations, India said it would immediately suspend the Indus Waters Treaty – a decades-old agreement that allowed both countries to share water use from the rivers that flow from India into Pakistan. Pakistan has promised reciprocal moves and warned that any disruption to its water supply would be considered “an act of war.”

    The current flareup escalated quickly, but has a long history. At the Indus Basin Water Project at the Ohio State University, we are engaged in a multiyear project investigating the transboundary water dispute between Pakistan and India.

    Fazlul Haq walks through the Gargo Glacier floodplain in the Upper Indus Basin.
    Fazlul Haq/Indus Basin Water Project/Ohio State University, CC BY-SA

    I am currently in Pakistan conducting fieldwork in Kashmir and across the Indus Basin. Geopolitical tensions in the region, which have been worsened by the recent attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, do pose a major threat to the water treaty. So too does another factor that is helping escalate the tensions: climate change

    A fair solution to water disputes

    The Indus River has supported life for thousands of years since the Harappan civilization, which flourished around 2600 to 1900 B.C.E. in what is now Pakistan and northwest India.

    After the partition of India in 1947, control of the Indus River system became a major source of tension between the two nations that emerged from partition: India and Pakistan. Disputes arose almost immediately, particularly when India temporarily halted water flow to Pakistan in 1948, prompting fears over agricultural collapse. These early confrontations led to years of negotiations, culminating in the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960.


    Fazlul Haq/Bryan Mark/Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center/Ohio State University, CC BY

    Brokered by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty has long been hailed as one of the most successful transboundary water agreements.

    It divided the Indus Basin between the two countries, giving India control over the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – and Pakistan control over the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.

    At the time, this was seen as a fair solution. But the treaty was designed for a very different world. Back then, India and Pakistan were newly independent countries working to establish themselves amid a world divided by the Cold War.

    When it was signed, Pakistan’s population was 46 million, and India’s was 436 million. Today, those numbers have surged to over 240 million and 1.4 billion, respectively.

    Today, more than 300 million people rely on the Indus River Basin for their survival.

    This has put increased pressure on the precious source of water that sits between the two nuclear rivals. The effects of global warming, and the continued fighting over the disputed region of Kashmir, has only added to those tensions.

    Impact of melting glaciers

    Many of the problems of today are down to what wasn’t included in the treaty, rather than what was.

    At the time of signing, there was a lack of comprehensive studies on glacier mass balance. The assumption was that the Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus River system, were relatively stable.

    This lack of detailed measurements meant that future changes due to climate variability and glacial melt were not factored into the treaty’s design, nor were factors such as groundwater depletion, water pollution from pesticides, fertilizer use and industrial waste. Similarly, the potential for large-scale hydraulic development of the region through dams, reservoirs, canals and hydroelectricity were largely ignored in the treaty.

    Reflecting contemporary assumptions about the stability of glaciers, the negotiators assumed that hydrological patterns would remain persistent with the historic flows.

    Instead, the glaciers feeding the Indus Basin began to melt. In fact, they are now melting at record rates.

    Construction site of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam along the Indus River.
    Fazlul Haq/Indus Basin Water Project/Ohio State University

    The World Meteorological Organization reported that 2023 was globally the driest year in over three decades, with below-normal river flows disrupting agriculture and ecosystems. Global glaciers also saw their largest mass loss in 50 years, releasing over 600 gigatons of water into rivers and oceans.

    The Himalayan glaciers, which supply 60-70% of the Indus River’s summer flow, are shrinking rapidly. A 2019 study estimates they are losing 8 billion tons of ice annually.

    And a study by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development found that Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers melted 65% faster in 2011–2020 compared with the previous decade.

    The rate of glacier melt poses a significant challenge to the treaty’s long-term effectiveness to ensure essential water for all the people who rely on the Indus River Basin. While it may temporarily increase river flow, it threatens the long-term availability of water.

    Indeed, if this trend continues, water shortages will intensify, particularly for Pakistan, which depends heavily on the Indus during dry seasons.

    Another failing of the Indus Waters Treaty is that it only addresses surface water distribution and does not include provisions for managing groundwater extraction, which has become a significant issue in both India and Pakistan.

    In the Punjab region – often referred to as the breadbasket of both nations – heavy reliance on groundwater is leading to overexploitation and depletion.

    Groundwater now contributes a large portion – about 48% – of water withdrawals in the Indus Basin, particularly during dry seasons. Yet there is no transboundary framework to oversee the shared management of this resource as reported by the World Bank.

    A disputed region

    It wasn’t just climate change and groundwater that were ignored by the drafters of the Indus Waters Treaty. Indian and Pakistan negotiators also neglected the issue and status of Kashmir.

    Kashmir has been at the heart of India-Pakistan tensions since Partition in 1947. At the time of independence, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was given the option to accede to either India or Pakistan. Though the region had a Muslim majority, the Hindu ruler chose to accede to India, triggering the first India-Pakistan war.

    This led to a U.N.-mediated ceasefire in 1949 and the creation of the Line of Control, effectively dividing the territory between Indian-administered and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Since then, Kashmir has remained a disputed territory, claimed in full by both countries and serving as the flashpoint for two additional wars in 1965 and 1999, and numerous skirmishes.

    A ruined village in Jammu and Kashmir, India, during the war between India and Pakistan in 1965.
    Hulton-Deutsch Collection/Corbis via Getty Images

    Despite being the primary source of water for the basin, Kashmiris have had no role in negotiations or decision-making under the treaty.

    The region’s agricultural and hydropower potential has been limited due to restrictions on the use of its water resources, with only 19.8% of hydropower potential utilized. This means that Kashmiris on both sides — despite living in a water-rich region — have been unable to fully benefit from the resources flowing through their land, as water infrastructure has primarily served downstream users and broader national interests rather than local development.

    Some scholars argue that the treaty intentionally facilitated hydraulic development in Jammu and Kashmir, but not necessarily in ways that served local interests.

    India’s hydropower projects in Kashmir — such as the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams — have been a major point of contention. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns that these projects could alter water flows, particularly during crucial agricultural seasons.

    However, the Indus Waters Treaty does not provide explicit mechanisms for resolving such regional disputes, leaving Kashmir’s hydrological and political concerns unaddressed.

    Tensions over hydropower projects in Kashmir were bringing India and Pakistan toward diplomatic deadlock long before the recent attack.

    The Kishanganga and Ratle dam disputes, now under arbitration in The Hague, exposed the treaty’s growing inability to manage transboundary water conflicts.

    Then in September 2024, India formally called for a review of the Indus Waters Treaty, citing demographic shifts, energy needs and security concerns over Kashmir.

    Indian Border Security Force soldiers patrol on a boat along the Pargwal area of the India-Pakistan international border.
    Nitin Kanotra/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

    The treaty now exists in a state of limbo. While it technically remains in force, India’s formal notice for review has introduced uncertainty, halting key cooperative mechanisms and casting doubt on the treaty’s long-term durability.

    An equitable and sustainable treaty?

    Moving forward, I argue, any reform or renegotiation of the Indus Waters Treaty will, if it is to have lasting success, need to acknowledge the hydrological significance of Kashmir while engaging voices from across the region.

    Excluding Kashmir from future discussions – and neither India nor Pakistan has formally proposed including Kashmiri stakeholders – would only reinforce a long-standing pattern of marginalization, where decisions about its resources are made without considering the needs of its people.

    As debates on “climate-proofing” the treaty continue, ensuring Kashmiri perspectives are included will be critical for building a more equitable and sustainable transboundary water framework.

    Nicholas Breyfogle, Madhumita Dutta, Alexander Thompson, and Bryan G. Mark at the Indus Basin Water Project at the Ohio State University contributed to this article.

    Fazlul Haq does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tensions over Kashmir and a warming planet have placed the Indus Waters Treaty on life support – https://theconversation.com/tensions-over-kashmir-and-a-warming-planet-have-placed-the-indus-waters-treaty-on-life-support-244699

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why sitting down – and getting back up – might be the most important health test you do today

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Catherine Norton, Associate Professor Sport & Exercise Nutrition, University of Limerick

    Ruslan Huzau/Shutterstock

    If you or someone you love finds it difficult to stand up from the toilet without using your hands, it might seem like a small issue. But in health and ageing, this movement – known as the “sit-to-stand” – can be a red flag. It’s one of the strongest indicators of frailty, a condition that can threaten independence and quality of life.

    Frailty increases the risk of falls, hospital stays, slower recovery from illness, and early death. It’s more than just about being thin or weak – it’s about reduced muscle mass, strength and energy – and it’s one of the main reasons older adults lose the ability to live on their own.

    This loss of muscle strength and function isn’t just about growing old. It often begins as early as your 30s and accelerates after 60. The good news? It’s not inevitable. Frailty can be prevented – and even reversed – with simple, targeted changes in diet and physical activity.

    Surprisingly, carrying a bit of extra weight in older age can be beneficial. Studies suggest that being in the “overweight” BMI range is often linked to better outcomes than being underweight – as long as you’re carrying muscle, not just fat.

    What matters most is body composition – the ratio of muscle to fat. Lean muscle supports mobility, balance and resilience during illness or injury. In contrast, excess visceral fat (around the internal organs) increases the risk of disease.

    Muscle is made of protein and, as we age, our bodies become less efficient at using it. That means older adults need to eat more protein than younger people – not less. Aim for 1 to 1.2 grams of protein per kilogram of body weight per day. For a 70kg person, that’s around 70–85 grams daily, ideally spread across all meals.

    Good protein sources include:
    • Eggs, milk, cheese and yoghurt
    • Chicken, turkey, beef and oily fish
    • Lentils, beans, tofu and soy products
    • Nuts, seeds, and whole grains

    Also, don’t forget total calorie intake. If you’re undereating overall – especially during illness – your body will break down muscle to compensate, even if protein intake is adequate.

    Move it or lose it

    Muscle only stays if you use it – the “move it or lose it” mantra applies here. Regular strength training is one of the best things you can do to stay independent and strong.

    Aim for two to three sessions per week focused on strength. You don’t need a gym – bodyweight exercises at home count too.

    Effective strength activities include:

    • Sit-to-stand repetitions from a chair
    • Functional movements like stair climbing, gardening, or carrying groceries
    • Squats, lunges and push-ups
    • Using resistance bands or light weights

    Walking, swimming and cycling are great for cardiovascular and joint health, but they aren’t enough on their own to maintain muscle mass. Challenge your muscles regularly – even in small ways.

    Things to watch out for:

    • Struggling to stand up from low chairs or the toilet
    • Clothes feeling looser around the thighs or arms
    • Feeling weaker carrying bags or household items
    • Avoiding stairs or certain movements you used to do easily

    Catching these signs early can help you act before it affects your independence.

    Here are five things you can do for healthy ageing

    1. Prioritise protein: include it in every meal. Think eggs for breakfast, beans at lunch, and fish or chicken for dinner.
    2. Strength train weekly: find something you enjoy and can stick with – gardening, resistance bands, or a local class.
    3. Don’t fear healthy weight gain: especially if you’ve recently lost weight unintentionally. Focus on building muscle, not fat.
    4. Stay active daily: every movement counts – walking, stretching, or lifting household objects.
    5. Monitor your function: the sit-to-stand test is a simple way to track your strength. If it’s getting harder, take action.

    We can’t stop ageing, but we can age well. That means making muscle health a priority – not just for appearance, but for independence, dignity and quality of life.

    So, whether you’re thinking about your future or supporting an older loved one, remember this: building and maintaining muscle is one of the most powerful tools we have for healthy ageing.

    With the right habits, you can protect your strength, mobility and independence.

    And next time you sit down – think about how easily you get back up. That small action might be the most important health check you do all day.

    Catherine Norton receives funding organisations e.g. Food for Health Ireland, DAFM, Enterprise Ireland

    – ref. Why sitting down – and getting back up – might be the most important health test you do today – https://theconversation.com/why-sitting-down-and-getting-back-up-might-be-the-most-important-health-test-you-do-today-255057

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump can’t decide who to blame for a failing peace deal that would only lead to further conflict

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    After a second consecutive night of deadly Russian air attacks – against the capital Kyiv on April 23 and the eastern Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad on April 24 – a ceasefire in Ukraine seems as unrealistic as ever.

    With Russian commitment to a deal clearly lacking, the situation is not helped by US president Donald Trump. He can’t quite seem to decide who he will ultimately blame if his efforts to agree a ceasefire fall apart.

    Before the strikes on Kyiv, Trump blamed Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for holding up a deal by refusing to recognise Crimea as Russian. The following day, he chided Vladimir Putin for the attacks, calling them “not necessary, and very bad timing” and imploring Putin to stop.

    The main stumbling bloc on the path to a ceasefire is what a final peace agreement might look like and what concessions Kyiv – and its European allies – will accept. Ukraine’s and Europe’s position on this is unequivocal: no recognition of the illegal Russian annexation.

    This position is also backed by opinion polls in Ukraine, which indicate only limited support for some, temporary concessions to Russia. The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, also suggested that temporarily giving up territory “can be a solution”.

    The deal that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff apparently negotiated over three rounds of talks in Russia was roundly rejected by Ukraine and Britain, France and Germany, who lead the “coalition of the willing” of countries pledging support for Ukraine.



    Read more:
    Could Trump be leading the world into recession?

    This prompted Witkoff and US secretary of state Marco Rubio to pull out of follow-up talks in London on April 24. These ended with a fairly vacuous statement about a commitment to continuing “close coordination and … further talks soon”.

    And even this now appears as quite a stretch. Coinciding with Witkoff’s fourth trip to see Putin on April 25, European and Ukrainian counterproposals were released that reject most of the terms offered by Trump or at least defer their negotiation until after a ceasefire is in place.

    Why is it failing?

    The impasse is unsurprising. Washington’s proposal included a US commitment to recognise Crimea as Russian, a promise that Ukraine would not join Nato and accept Moscow’s control of the territories in eastern Ukraine that it currently illegally occupies. It also included lifting all sanctions against Russia.

    In other words, Ukraine would give up large parts of territory and receive no security guarantees, while Russia is rewarded with reintegration into the global economy.

    It is the territorial concessions asked of Kyiv which are especially problematic. Quite apart from the fact that they are in fundamental breach of basic principles of international law – the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states – they are unlikely to provide solid foundations for a durable peace.

    Much like the idea of Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, to divide Ukraine like post-1945 Berlin, it betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what, and who, drives this war.

    Recent London peace talks in April failed to make progress.

    Kellogg later clarified that he was not suggesting a partition of Ukraine, but his proposal would have exactly the same effect as Trump’s most recent offer.

    Both proposals accept the permanent loss to Ukraine of territory that Russia currently controls. Where they differ is that Kellogg wants to introduce a European-led reassurance force west of the river Dnipro, while leaving the defence of remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory to Kyiv’s armed forces.

    If accepted by Russia – unlikely as this is given Russia’s repeated and unequivocal rejection of European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine – it would provide at best a minimal security guarantee for a part of Ukrainian territory.

    What it would almost inevitably mean, however, is a repeat of the permanent ceasefire violations along the disengagement zone in eastern Ukraine where Russian and Ukrainian forces would continue to face each other.

    This is what happened after the ill-fated Minsk accords of 2014 and 2015, which were meant to settle the conflict after Russia’s invasion of Donbas in 2014. A further Russian invasion could be just around the corner once the Kremlin felt that it had sufficiently recovered from the current war.



    Read more:
    Ukraine deal: Europe has learned from the failed 2015 Minsk accords with Putin. Trump has not

    The lack of a credible deterrent is one key difference between the situation in Ukraine as envisaged by Washington and other historical and contemporary parallels, including Korea and Cyprus.

    Korea was partitioned in 1945 and has been protected by a large US military presence since the Korean war in 1953. After the Turkish invasion of 1974, Cyprus was divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriots along a partition line secured by an armed UN peacekeeping mission.

    Trump has ruled out any US troop commitment as part of securing a ceasefire in Ukraine. And the idea of a UN force in Ukraine, briefly floated during the presidency of Petro Poroshenko between 2014 and 2019, never got any traction, and is not likely to be accepted by Putin now.

    The assumed parallels with the situation in Germany after the second world war are even more tenuous. Not only did Nazi Germany unconditionally surrender in May 1945 but its division into allied zones of occupation was formally and unanimously agreed by the victorious allies in Potsdam in August 1945.

    Muddling up Potsdam and Munich?

    By the time two separate German states of East and West Germany were established in 1949, the western allies had fallen out with Stalin but remained firmly united in Nato and western Europe. So the west German state was firmly protected under the US nuclear umbrella.

    The agreements made in Potsdam didn’t have the same implication of permanence as the US suggestion to formally recognise Crimea as Russian territory. The suggestion was always that the allied forces would pull out of Germany at some stage, and restore the country’s sovereignty.

    Most importantly, the allies did not reward the aggressor in the war or create the conditions for merely a brief interruption for an aggressor’s revisionist agenda.

    After all, what has driven Putin’s war against Ukraine is his conviction that “the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”.

    The Trump administration deludes itself that it is applying the lessons of Potsdam by recognising Russia’s territorial conquests in Ukraine and handing them over. Instead it is falling into the trap of the 1938 Munich Agreement. Negotiators in Munich tried, but failed, to avoid the second world war by appeasing and not deterring an insatiable aggressor – a historical lesson that doesn’t need repeating.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump can’t decide who to blame for a failing peace deal that would only lead to further conflict – https://theconversation.com/trump-cant-decide-who-to-blame-for-a-failing-peace-deal-that-would-only-lead-to-further-conflict-254841

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s ‘Garden of American Heroes’ is a monument to celebrity and achievement – paid for with humanities funding that benefits everyday Americans

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jennifer Tucker, Professor of History, Wesleyan University

    Donald Trump speaks in front of a wax statue of John Wayne at the John Wayne Museum in Winterset, Iowa, during the 2016 GOP primaries. Al Drago/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images

    Donald Trump first came up with his plan for a “National Garden of American Heroes” at the end of his first term, before President Joe Biden quietly tabled it upon replacing Trump in the White House.

    Now, with Trump back in the Oval Office – and with the country’s 250th anniversary fast approaching – the project is back. The National Endowment for the Humanities is seeking to commission 250 statues of famous Americans from a predetermined list, to be displayed at a location yet to be determined.

    It isn’t clear who compiled the list of 250 to be honored. It includes names that are largely recognizable and whose accomplishments are well-known: politicians like Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy; jurists Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Antonin Scalia; activists such as Martin Luther King, Jr. and Harriet Tubman; celebrities such as John Wayne and Julia Child; and sports stars like Kobe Bryant and Babe Ruth.

    Donald Trump announces some famous Black Americans he plans to include in his ‘National Garden of American Heroes’ during a Black History Month event on Feb. 20, 2025, at the White House.

    The statue garden coincides with an executive order from March 2025 in which the Trump administration denounced what it saw as historical revisionism that had recast the country’s “unparalleled legacy of advancing liberty, individual rights, and human happiness.” Instead, it had constructed a story of the nation that portrayed it “as inherently racist, sexist, oppressive, or otherwise irredeemably flawed,” which “fosters a sense of national shame.”

    “We don’t need to overemphasize the negative,” explained Lindsey Halligan, a 35-year-old insurance lawyer who is named in the order as one of the people tasked with reforming museums that receive government funds.

    Trump often casts himself as a man of the people. But as historians, we don’t see a garden of heroes as a populist effort. To us, it represents a top-down approach to U.S. history, akin to the hagiography that Americans already regularly get from movies, television and professional sports.

    And it comes at a cost: It’s going to be paid for with funds that had been previously allotted to tell stories about people and places that may be less familiar than the proposed figures for Trump’s garden. But they’re nonetheless meaningful to countless communities across the nation.

    Only the movers and shakers matter

    Trump’s fixation on America’s luminaries is adjacent to the “great man” theory of history.

    In 1840, Scottish philosopher and historian Thomas Carlyle published “On Heroes, Hero-Worship, and the Heroic in History,” in which he argued that “The History of the world is but the Biography of great men.”

    American biologist and eugenicist Frederick Adams Woods embraced the great man theory in his 1913 work, “The Influence of Monarchs: Steps in a New Science of History.” In it, he investigated 386 rulers in Western Europe from the 12th century until the French Revolution. He proposed a scientific measurement to quantify the relative impact these rulers had on the course of civilization.

    Then and now, many other historians and sociologists have pushed back, arguing that the “Great Man” view of history oversimplifies the past by attributing major historical events to the actions of a few influential individuals, while ignoring broader social, economic and cultural forces.

    Nonetheless, it continues to have broad appeal. It’s very popular among corporate leaders, for example, many of whom like to portray themselves as visionaries, with their business successes proof of their genius.

    Trump’s garden of heroes reflects his penchant for celebrating wealth, champions and successes, akin to what Walt Disney tried to capture with his Disney World ride Carousel of Progress, which highlights American technological advances.

    A national redundancy?

    However, the U.S. already has a national statuary hall, which opened in the U.S. Capitol in 1870. Each state has contributed two statues; for example, Massachusetts honors Samuel Adams and John Winthrop, while Ohio celebrates James Garfield and Thomas Edison.

    Today there are 102 statutes, though just 14 women.

    Importantly, the roster is fluid – not set in stone – and reflects debates over whom the nation ought to celebrate.

    Over time, the representation has become slightly more inclusive. The first woman, Illinois educator Frances Willard, was added in 1905. Only in 2022 did a Black American appear, when educator Mary Bethune replaced a Confederate general from Florida. And in 2024, Johnny Cash replaced James Paul Clarke, a former governor and senator from Arkansas with Confederate sympathies.

    Family members and elected officials attend the unveiling of the statue of Johnny Cash at the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 24, 2024.
    Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

    What about everyday Americans?

    We don’t think there’s anything wrong with celebrating and honoring popular figures in American history. But we do think there’s an issue when it comes at the expense of other historical and archival projects.

    The New York Times reported that US$34 million for the project would come from funds formerly allocated to the National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for the Humanities, whose budget has been cut by 85%.

    Many of the grants that have been slashed explore, celebrate and preserve history in ways that stand in stark contrast to a statue garden. They involve, as Gal Beckerman writes in the Atlantic, efforts that “are about asking questions, about uncovering hidden or overlooked experiences, about closely examining texts or adding to the public record.”

    They include one that supports the digitization of local newspapers and archival records; another to collect and preserve oral histories of local communities; a grant that funds the production of documentaries and podcasts about local communities; traveling exhibitions that bring items from the Smithsonian’s collection to small towns and rural areas; and a grant to fund the collection of first-person accounts of Native Americans who attended U.S. government-run boarding schools.

    These and countless similar history projects serve millions of people far from Washington, and they have broad support from lawmakers and citizens of all political stripes.

    In 1938, as forces of fascism gathered in Europe, a Connecticut high school social science teacher said, “The greatest need of America, on the threshold of the greatest epoch of its history, is citizens who understand the past out of which the nation has grown. … Let us look into the souls of the leaders and the common people who have made America great.”

    In his 2016 campaign, Trump promised to work on behalf of everyday Americans – the “forgotten man and woman.” But the proposed statue garden of famous figures cuts out the common people from America’s story – not just as subjects of history, but as its stewards for future generations.

    With funds slashed from organizations dedicated to local history, we wonder how many more stories will go untold.

    Jennifer Tucker has received funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities for research that examines the social and cultural role of modern technology, such as facial recognition, through a historical lens.

    Peter Rutland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s ‘Garden of American Heroes’ is a monument to celebrity and achievement – paid for with humanities funding that benefits everyday Americans – https://theconversation.com/trumps-garden-of-american-heroes-is-a-monument-to-celebrity-and-achievement-paid-for-with-humanities-funding-that-benefits-everyday-americans-254564

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why predicting battery performance is like forecasting traffic − and how researchers are making progress

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Emmanuel Olugbade, Ph.D. Candidate in Mechanical Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology

    How much charge is left? It can be hard to know for sure. Olemedia/E+ via Getty Images

    Lithium-ion batteries are quietly powering large parts of the world, including electric vehicles and smartphones. They have revolutionized how people store and use energy. But as these batteries become more central to daily life, they bring more attention to the challenges of managing them and the energy they store safely, efficiently and intelligently.

    I’m a mechanical engineer who studies these nearly ubiquitous batteries. They have been around for decades, yet researchers like me are still trying to fully understand how these batteries behave – especially when they are working hard.

    Batteries may seem simple, but they are as complicated as the real-world uses people devise for them.

    The big picture

    At their core, lithium-ion batteries rely on the movement of charged particles, called ions, of the element lithium between two electric poles, or electrodes. The lithium ions move from the positive electrode to the negative one through a conductive substance called an electrolyte, which can be a solid or a liquid.

    The basics of how a lithium-ion battery works.

    How much energy these batteries store and how well they work depends on a tangle of factors, including the temperature, physical structure of the battery and how the materials age over time.

    Around the world, researchers are trying to answer questions about each of these factors individually and in concert with each other. Some research focuses on improving lifespan and calculating how batteries degrade over time. Other projects are tackling safety under extreme conditions, such as fast-charging use in extreme climates – either hot or cold. Many are exploring entirely new materials that could make batteries cheaper, longer-lasting or safer. And a significant group – including me – are working with computer simulations to improve real-time battery monitoring.

    Real‑time monitoring in your electric vehicle’s battery system functions like a health check: It tracks voltage, current and temperature to estimate how much energy remains so you won’t be stranded with a dead battery.

    But it’s difficult to precisely measure how well each of the energy cells within the battery is performing as they age or as the weather changes from cold in winter to hotter in summer. So the battery management system uses a computer simulation to estimate those factors. When combined with real-time monitoring, the system can prevent overusing the battery, balance charging speed with long-term health, avoid power failures and keep performance high. But there are a lot of variables.

    The traffic analogy

    One of the best ways to understand this challenge is to think about city traffic.

    Let’s say you want to drive across town and need to determine whether your car has enough charge to travel the best route. If your navigation simulator accounted for every stoplight, every construction zone and every vehicle on the road, it would give you a very accurate answer. But it might take an hour to run, by which time the circumstances would have changed and the answer would likely be wrong. That’s not helpful if you’re trying to make a decision right now.

    A simpler model might assume that every road is clear and every car is moving at the speed limit. That simulation delivers a result instantly – but its results are very inaccurate when traffic is heavy or a road is closed. It doesn’t capture the reality of rush hour.

    While you’re driving, the battery management system would do a similar set of calculations to see how much charge is available for the rest of the trip. It would look at the battery’s temperature, how old it is and how much energy the car is asking for, like when going up a steep hill or accelerating quickly to keep up with other cars. But like the navigation simulations, it has to strike a balance between being extremely accurate and giving you useful information before your battery runs out in the middle of your trip.

    The most accurate models, which simulate every chemical reaction inside the battery, are too slow for real-time use. The faster models simplify things so much that they miss key behaviors – especially under stress, such as fast charging or sudden bursts of energy use.

    Managing the flow of electrons to and from a battery is as complicated as managing the flow of traffic on local streets.
    AP Photo/Julio Cortez

    How researchers are bridging the gap

    This trade-off between speed and accuracy is at the heart of battery modeling research today. Scientists and engineers are exploring many ways to solve it.

    Some are rewriting modeling software to make the physics calculations more efficient, reducing complexity without losing the key details. Others, like me, are turning to machine learning – training computers to recognize patterns in data and make fast, accurate predictions without having to solve every underlying equation.

    In my recent work, I used a high-accuracy battery simulator – one of the ones that’s really accurate but very slow – to generate a massive amount of data about how a battery functions when charging and discharging. I used that data to train a machine learning algorithm called XGBoost, which is particularly good at finding patterns in data.

    Then I used software to pair the XGBoost system with a simple, fast-running battery model that captures the basic physics but can miss finer details. The simpler model puts out an initial set of results, and the XGBoost element fine-tunes those to make corrections on the fly, especially when the battery is under strain.

    The result is a hybrid model that is able to respond both quickly and accurately to changes in driving conditions. A driver who floors the accelerator with just the simple model wouldn’t get enough energy; a more detailed model would give the right amount of energy only after it finished all its calculations. My hybrid model delivers a rapid boost of energy without delays.

    Other teams are working on similar hybrid approaches, blending physics and artificial intelligence in creative ways. Some are even building digital twins – real-time virtual replicas of physical batteries – to offer sophisticated simulations that update constantly as conditions change.

    Battery storage pods like these in Arizona can store electricity between when it is generated and when it is needed.
    AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

    What’s next

    Battery research is moving quickly, and the field is already seeing signs of change. Models are becoming more reliable across a wider range of conditions. Engineers are using real-time monitoring to extend battery life, prevent overheating and improve energy efficiency. Machine learning lets researchers train battery management systems to optimize performance for specific applications, such as high power demands in electric vehicles, daily cycles of home electricity use, short power bursts for drones, or long-duration requirements for building-scale battery systems.

    And there’s more to come: Researchers are working to include other important factors into their battery models, such as heat generation and mechanical stress.

    Some teams are taking hybrid models and compiling their software into lightweight code that runs on microcontrollers inside battery hardware. In practice, that means each battery pack carries its own brain on-board, calculating state-of-charge, estimating aging and tracking thermal or mechanical stress in near-real time. By embedding the model in the device’s electronics, the pack can autonomously adjust its charging and discharging strategy on the fly, making every battery smarter, safer and more efficient.

    As the energy landscape evolves – with more electric vehicles on the road, more renewable energy sources feeding into the grid, and more people relying on batteries in daily life – the ability to understand what a battery is doing in real time becomes more critical than ever.

    Emmanuel Olugbade receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Why predicting battery performance is like forecasting traffic − and how researchers are making progress – https://theconversation.com/why-predicting-battery-performance-is-like-forecasting-traffic-and-how-researchers-are-making-progress-253572

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence’ − an astronomer explains how much evidence scientists need to claim discoveries like extraterrestrial life

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of Arizona

    The universe is filled with countless galaxies, stars and planets. Astronomers may find life one day, but they will need extraordinary proof. ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA, image processing by J.-C. Cuillandre (CEA Paris-Saclay), G. Anselmi

    The detection of life beyond Earth would be one of the most profound discoveries in the history of science. The Milky Way galaxy alone hosts hundreds of millions of potentially habitable planets. Astronomers are using powerful space telescopes to look for molecular indicators of biology in the atmospheres of the most Earth-like of these planets.

    But so far, no solid evidence of life has ever been found beyond the Earth. A paper published in April 2025 claimed to detect a signature of life in the atmosphere of the planet K2-18b. And while this discovery is intriguing, most astronomers – including the paper’s authors – aren’t ready to claim that it means extraterrestrial life exists. A detection of life would be a remarkable development.

    The astronomer Carl Sagan used the phrase, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” in regard to searching for alien life. It conveys the idea that there should be a high bar for evidence to support a remarkable claim.

    I’m an astronomer who has written a book about astrobiology. Over my career, I’ve seen some compelling scientific discoveries. But to reach this threshold of finding life beyond Earth, a result needs to fit several important criteria.

    When is a result important and reliable?

    There are three criteria for a scientific result to represent a true discovery and not be subject to uncertainty and doubt. How does the claim of life on K2-18b measure up?

    First, the experiment needs to measure a meaningful and important quantity. Researchers observed K2-18b’s atmosphere with the James Webb Space Telescope and saw a spectral feature that they identified as dimethyl sulfide.

    On Earth, dimethyl sulfide is associated with biology, in particular bacteria and plankton in the oceans. However, it can also arise by other means, so this single molecule is not conclusive proof of life.

    Second, the detection needs to be strong. Every detector has some noise from the random motion of electrons. The signal should be strong enough to have a low probability of arising by chance from this noise.

    The K2-18b detection has a significance of 3-sigma, which means it has a 0.3% probability of arising by chance.

    That sounds low, but most scientists would consider that a weak detection. There are many molecules that could create a feature in the same spectral range.

    The “gold standard” for scientific detection is 5-sigma, which means the probability of the finding happening by chance is less than 0.00006%. For example, physicists at CERN gathered data patiently for two years until they had a 5-sigma detection of the Higgs boson particle, leading to a Nobel Prize one year later in 2013.

    The announcement of the discovery of the Higgs boson took decades from the time Peter Higgs first predicted the existence of the particle. Scientists, such as Joe Incandela shown here, waited until they’d reached that 5-sigma level to say, ‘I think we have it.’

    Third, a result needs to be repeatable. Results are considered reliable when they’ve been repeated – ideally corroborated by other investigators or confirmed using a different instrument. For K2-18b, this might mean detecting other molecules that indicate biology, such as oxygen in the planet’s atmosphere. Without more and better data, most researchers are viewing the claim of life on K2-18b with skepticism.

    Claims of life on Mars

    In the past, some scientists have claimed to have found life much closer to home, on the planet Mars.

    Over a century ago, retired Boston merchant turned astronomer Percival Lowell claimed that linear features he saw on the surface of Mars were canals, constructed by a dying civilization to transport water from the poles to the equator. Artificial waterways on Mars would certainly have been a major discovery, but this example failed the other two criteria: strong evidence and repeatability.

    Lowell was misled by his visual observations, and he was engaging in wishful thinking. No other astronomers could confirm his findings.

    Mars, as taken by the OSIRIS instrument on the ESA Rosetta spacecraft during its February 2007 flyby of the planet and adjusted to show color.
    ESA & MPS for OSIRIS Team MPS/UPD/LAM/IAA/RSSD/INTA/UPM/DASP/IDA, CC BY-SA

    In 1996, NASA held a press conference where a team of scientists presented evidence for biology in the Martian meteorite ALH 84001. Their evidence included an evocative image that seemed to show microfossils in the meteorite.

    However, scientists have come up with explanations for the meteorite’s unusual features that do not involve biology. That extraordinary claim has dissipated.

    More recently, astronomers detected low levels of methane in the atmosphere of Mars. Like dimethyl sulfide and oxygen, methane on Earth is made primarily – but not exclusively – by life. Different spacecraft and rovers on the Martian surface have returned conflicting results, where a detection with one spacecraft was not confirmed by another.

    The low level and variability of methane on Mars is still a mystery. And in the absence of definitive evidence that this very low level of methane has a biological origin, nobody is claiming definitive evidence of life on Mars.

    Claims of advanced civilizations

    Detecting microbial life on Mars or an exoplanet would be dramatic, but the discovery of extraterrestrial civilizations would be truly spectacular.

    The search for extraterrestrial intelligence, or SETI, has been underway for 75 years. No messages have ever been received, but in 1977 a radio telescope in Ohio detected a strong signal that lasted only for a minute.

    This signal was so unusual that an astronomer working at the telescope wrote “Wow!” on the printout, giving the signal its name. Unfortunately, nothing like it has since been detected from that region of the sky, so the Wow! Signal fails the test of repeatability.

    ‘Oumuamua is the first object passing through the solar system that astronomers have identified as having interstellar origins.
    European Southern Observatory/M. Kornmesser

    In 2017, a rocky, cigar-shaped object called ‘Oumuamua was the first known interstellar object to visit the solar system. ‘Oumuamua’s strange shape and trajectory led Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb to argue that it was an alien artifact. However, the object has already left the solar system, so there’s no chance for astronomers to observe it again. And some researchers have gathered evidence suggesting that it’s just a comet.

    While many scientists think we aren’t alone, given the enormous amount of habitable real estate beyond Earth, no detection has cleared the threshold enunciated by Carl Sagan.

    Claims about the universe

    These same criteria apply to research about the entire universe. One particular concern in cosmology is the fact that, unlike the case of planets, there is only one universe to study.

    A cautionary tale comes from attempts to show that the universe went through a period of extremely rapid expansion a fraction of a second after the Big Bang. Cosmologists call this event inflation, and it is invoked to explain why the universe is now smooth and flat.

    In 2014, astronomers claimed to have found evidence for inflation in a subtle signal from microwaves left over after the Big Bang. Within a year, however, the team retracted the result because the signal had a mundane explanation: They had confused dust in our galaxy with a signature of inflation.

    On the other hand, the discovery of the universe’s acceleration shows the success of the scientific method. In 1929, astronomer Edwin Hubble found that the universe was expanding. Then, in 1998, evidence emerged that this cosmic expansion is accelerating. Physicists were startled by this result.

    Two research groups used supernovae to separately trace the expansion. In a friendly rivalry, they used different sets of supernovae but got the same result. Independent corroboration increased their confidence that the universe was accelerating. They called the force behind this accelerating expansion dark energy and received a Nobel Prize in 2011 for its discovery.

    On scales large and small, astronomers try to set a high bar of evidence before claiming a discovery.

    Chris Impey receives funding from the Natonal Science Foundation and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

    – ref. ‘Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence’ − an astronomer explains how much evidence scientists need to claim discoveries like extraterrestrial life – https://theconversation.com/extraordinary-claims-require-extraordinary-evidence-an-astronomer-explains-how-much-evidence-scientists-need-to-claim-discoveries-like-extraterrestrial-life-254914

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘I were but little happy, if I could say how much’: Shakespeare’s insights on happiness have held up for more than 400 years

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Cora Fox, Associate Professor of English and Health Humanities, Arizona State University

    Joanna Vanderham as Desdemona and Hugh Quarshie as the title character in a Royal Shakespeare Company production of ‘Othello.’ Robbie Jack/Corbis via Getty Images

    What is “happiness” – and who gets to be happy?

    Since 2012, the World Happiness Report has measured and compared data from 167 countries. The United States currently ranks 24th, between the U.K. and Belize – its lowest position since the report was first issued. But the 2025 edition – released on March 20, the United Nations’ annual “International Day of Happiness” – starts off not with numbers, but with Shakespeare.

    “In this year’s issue, we focus on the impact of caring and sharing on people’s happiness,” the authors explain. “Like ‘mercy’ in Shakespeare’s ‘Merchant of Venice,’ caring is ‘twice-blessed’ – it blesses those who give and those who receive.”

    Shakespeare’s plays offer many reflections on happiness itself. They are a record of how people in early modern England experienced and thought about joy and satisfaction, and they offer a complex look at just how happiness, like mercy, lives in relationships and the caring exchanges between people.

    Contrary to how we might think about happiness in our everyday lives, it is more than the surge of positive feelings after a great meal, or a workout, or even a great date. The experience of emotions is grounded in both the body and the mind, influenced by human physiology and culture in ways that change depending on time and place. What makes a person happy, therefore, depends on who that person is, as well as where and when they belong – or don’t belong.

    Happiness has a history. I study emotions and early modern literature, so I spend a lot of my time thinking about what Shakespeare has to say about what makes people happy, in his own time and in our own. And also, of course, what makes people unhappy.

    From fortune to joy

    Shakespeare’s birthplace in Stratford-upon-Avon, England.
    Tony Hisgett/Flickr via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    “Happiness” derives from the Old Norse word “hap,” which meant “fortune” or “luck,” as historians Phil Withington and Darrin McMahon explain. This earlier sense is found throughout Shakespeare’s works. Today, it survives in the modern word “happenstance” and the expression that something is a “happy accident.”

    But in modern English usage, “happy” as “fortunate” has been almost entirely replaced by a notion of happiness as “joy,” or the more long-term sense of life satisfaction called “well-being.” The term “well-being,” in fact, was introduced into English from the Italian “benessere” around the time of Shakespeare’s birth.

    The word and the concept of happiness were transforming during Shakespeare’s lifetime, and his use of the word in his plays mingles both senses: “fortunate” and “joyful.” That transitional ambiguity emphasizes happiness’ origins in ideas about luck and fate, and it reminds readers and playgoers that happiness is a contingent, fragile thing – something not just individuals, but societies need to carefully cultivate and support.

    For instance, early in “Othello,” the Venetian senator Brabantio describes his daughter Desdemona as “tender, fair, and happy / So opposite to marriage that she shunned / The wealthy, curled darlings of our nation.” Before she elopes with Othello she is “happy” in the sense of “fortunate,” due to her privileged position on the marriage market.

    Later in the same play, though, Othello reunites with his new wife in Cyprus and describes his feelings of joy using this same term:

    …If it were now to die,
    ‘Twere now to be most happy, for I fear
    My soul hath her content so absolute
    That not another comfort like to this
    Succeeds in unknown fate.

    Desdemona responds,

    The heavens forbid
    But that our loves and comforts should increase
    Even as our days do grow!

    They both understand “happy” to mean not just lucky, but “content” and “comfortable,” a more modern understanding. But they also recognize that their comforts depend on “the heavens,” and that happiness is enabled by being fortunate.

    “Othello” is a tragedy, so in the end, the couple will not prove “happy” in either sense. The foreign general is tricked into believing his young wife has been unfaithful. He murders her, then takes his own life.

    The seeds of jealousy are planted and expertly exploited by Othello’s subordinate, Iago, who catalyzes the racial prejudice and misogyny underlying Venetian values to enact his sinister and cruel revenge.

    James Earl Jones playing the title role and Jill Clayburgh as Desdemona in a 1971 production of ‘Othello.’
    Kathleen Ballard/Los Angeles Times/UCLA Library via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Happy insiders and outsiders

    “Othello” sheds light on happiness’s history – but also on its politics.

    While happiness is often upheld as a common good, it is also dependent on cultural forces that make it harder for some individuals to experience. Shared cultural fantasies about happiness tend to create what theorist Sara Ahmed calls “affect aliens”: individuals who, by nature of who they are and how they are treated, experience a disconnect between what their culture conditions them to think should make them happy and their disappointment or exclusion from those positive feelings. Othello, for example, rightly worries that he is somehow foreign to the domestic happiness Desdemona describes, excluded from the joy of Venetian marriage. It turns out he is right.

    Because Othello is foreign and Black and Desdemona is Venetian and white, their marriage does not conform to their society’s expectations for happiness, and that makes them vulnerable to Iago’s deceit.

    Similarly, “The Merchant of Venice” examines the potential for happiness to include or exclude, to build or break communities. Take the quote about mercy that opens the World Happiness Report.

    The phrase appears in a famous courtroom scene, as Portia attempts to persuade a Jewish lender, Shylock, to take pity on Antonio, a Christian man who cannot pay his debts. In their contract, Shylock has stipulated that if Antonio defaults on the loan, the fee will be a “pound of flesh.”

    “The quality of mercy is not strained,” Portia lectures him; it is “twice-blessed,” benefiting both giver and receiver.

    It’s a powerful attempt to save Antonio’s life. But it is also hypocritical: Those cultural norms of caring and mercy seem to apply only to other Christians in the play, and not the Jewish people living alongside them in Venice. In that same scene, Shylock reminds his audience that Antonio and the other Venetians in the room have spit on him and called him a dog. He famously asks why Jewish Venetians are not treated as equal human beings: “If you prick us, do we not bleed?”

    Actor Henry Irving as Shylock in a late 19th-century performance of ‘The Merchant of Venice.’
    Lock & Whitfield/Folger Shakespeare Library via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Shakespeare’s plays repeatedly make the point that the unjust distribution of rights and care among various social groups – Christians and Jews, men and women, citizens and foreigners – challenges the happy effects of benevolence.

    Those social factors are sometimes overlooked in cultures like the U.S., where contemporary notions of happiness are marketed by wellness gurus, influencers and cosmetic companies. Shakespeare’s plays reveal both how happiness is built through communities of care and how it can be weaponized to destroy individuals and the fabric of the community.

    There are obvious victims of prejudice and abuse in Shakespeare’s plays, but he does not just emphasize their individual tragedies. Instead, the plays record how certain values that promote inequality poison relationships that could otherwise support happy networks of family and friends.

    Systems of support

    Pretty much all objective research points to the fact that long-term happiness depends on community, connections and social support: having systems in place to weather what life throws at us.

    And according to both the World Happiness Report and Shakespeare, contentment isn’t just about the actual support you receive but your expectations about people’s willingness to help you. Societies with high levels of trust, like Finland and the Netherlands, tend to be happier – and to have more evenly distributed levels of happiness in their populations.

    Shakespeare’s plays offer blueprints for trust in happy communities. They also offer warnings about the costs of cultural fantasies about happiness that make it more possible for some, but not for all.

    Cora Fox has received funding from an NEH grant for activities not directly related to this research.

    – ref. ‘I were but little happy, if I could say how much’: Shakespeare’s insights on happiness have held up for more than 400 years – https://theconversation.com/i-were-but-little-happy-if-i-could-say-how-much-shakespeares-insights-on-happiness-have-held-up-for-more-than-400-years-198583

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s ‘Garden of American Heroes’ is a monument to celebrity and achievement – paid for with history funding that benefits everyday Americans

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jennifer Tucker, Professor of History, Wesleyan University

    Donald Trump speaks in front of a wax statue of John Wayne at the John Wayne Museum in Winterset, Iowa, during the 2016 GOP primaries. Al Drago/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images

    Donald Trump first came up with his plan for a “National Garden of American Heroes” at the end of his first term, before President Joe Biden quietly tabled it upon replacing Trump in the White House.

    Now, with Trump back in the Oval Office – and with the country’s 250th anniversary fast approaching – the project is back. The National Endowment for the Humanities is seeking to commission 250 statues of famous Americans from a predetermined list, to be displayed at a location yet to be determined.

    It isn’t clear who compiled the list of 250 to be honored. It includes names that are largely recognizable and whose accomplishments are well-known: politicians like Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy; jurists Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Antonin Scalia; activists such as Martin Luther King, Jr. and Harriet Tubman; celebrities such as John Wayne and Julia Child; and sports stars like Kobe Bryant and Babe Ruth.

    Donald Trump announces some famous Black Americans he plans to include in his ‘National Garden of American Heroes’ during a Black History Month event on Feb. 20, 2025, at the White House.

    The statue garden coincides with an executive order from March 2025 in which the Trump administration denounced what it saw as historical revisionism that had recast the country’s “unparalleled legacy of advancing liberty, individual rights, and human happiness.” Instead, it had constructed a story of the nation that portrayed it “as inherently racist, sexist, oppressive, or otherwise irredeemably flawed,” which “fosters a sense of national shame.”

    “We don’t need to overemphasize the negative,” explained Lindsey Halligan, a 35-year-old insurance lawyer who is named in the order as one of the people tasked with reforming museums that receive government funds.

    Trump often casts himself as a man of the people. But as historians, we don’t see a garden of heroes as a populist effort. To us, it represents a top-down approach to U.S. history, akin to the hagiography that Americans already regularly get from movies, television and professional sports.

    And it comes at a cost: It’s going to be paid for with funds that had been previously allotted to tell stories about people and places that may be less familiar than the proposed figures for Trump’s garden. But they’re nonetheless meaningful to countless communities across the nation.

    Only the movers and shakers matter

    Trump’s fixation on America’s luminaries is adjacent to the “great man” theory of history.

    In 1840, Scottish philosopher and historian Thomas Carlyle published “On Heroes, Hero-Worship, and the Heroic in History,” in which he argued that “The History of the world is but the Biography of great men.”

    American biologist and eugenicist Frederick Adams Woods embraced the great man theory in his 1913 work, “The Influence of Monarchs: Steps in a New Science of History.” In it, he investigated 386 rulers in Western Europe from the 12th century until the French Revolution. He proposed a scientific measurement to quantify the relative impact these rulers had on the course of civilization.

    Then and now, many other historians and sociologists have pushed back, arguing that the “Great Man” view of history oversimplifies the past by attributing major historical events to the actions of a few influential individuals, while ignoring broader social, economic and cultural forces.

    Nonetheless, it continues to have broad appeal. It’s very popular among corporate leaders, for example, many of whom like to portray themselves as visionaries, with their business successes proof of their genius.

    Trump’s garden of heroes reflects his penchant for celebrating wealth, champions and successes, akin to what Walt Disney tried to capture with his Disney World ride Carousel of Progress, which highlights American technological advances.

    A national redundancy?

    However, the U.S. already has a national statuary hall, which opened in the U.S. Capitol in 1870. Each state has contributed two statues; for example, Massachusetts honors Samuel Adams and John Winthrop, while Ohio celebrates James Garfield and Thomas Edison.

    Today there are 102 statutes, though just 14 women.

    Importantly, the roster is fluid – not set in stone – and reflects debates over whom the nation ought to celebrate.

    Over time, the representation has become slightly more inclusive. The first woman, Illinois educator Frances Willard, was added in 1905. Only in 2022 did a Black American appear, when educator Mary Bethune replaced a Confederate general from Florida. And in 2024, Johnny Cash replaced James Paul Clarke, a former governor and senator from Arkansas with Confederate sympathies.

    Family members and elected officials attend the unveiling of the statue of Johnny Cash at the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 24, 2024.
    Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

    What about everyday Americans?

    We don’t think there’s anything wrong with celebrating and honoring popular figures in American history. But we do think there’s an issue when it comes at the expense of other historical and archival projects.

    The New York Times reported that US$34 million for the project would come from funds formerly allocated to the National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for the Humanities, whose budget has been cut by 85%.

    Many of the grants that have been slashed explore, celebrate and preserve history in ways that stand in stark contrast to a statue garden. They involve, as Gal Beckerman writes in the Atlantic, efforts that “are about asking questions, about uncovering hidden or overlooked experiences, about closely examining texts or adding to the public record.”

    They include one that supports the digitization of local newspapers and archival records; another to collect and preserve oral histories of local communities; a grant that funds the production of documentaries and podcasts about local communities; traveling exhibitions that bring items from the Smithsonian’s collection to small towns and rural areas; and a grant to fund the collection of first-person accounts of Native Americans who attended U.S. government-run boarding schools.

    These and countless similar history projects serve millions of people far from Washington, and they have broad support from lawmakers and citizens of all political stripes.

    In 1938, as forces of fascism gathered in Europe, a Connecticut high school social science teacher said, “The greatest need of America, on the threshold of the greatest epoch of its history, is citizens who understand the past out of which the nation has grown. … Let us look into the souls of the leaders and the common people who have made America great.”

    In his 2016 campaign, Trump promised to work on behalf of everyday Americans – the “forgotten man and woman.” But the proposed statue garden of famous figures cuts out the common people from America’s story – not just as subjects of history, but as its stewards for future generations.

    With funds slashed from organizations dedicated to local history, we wonder how many more stories will go untold.

    Jennifer Tucker has received funding from the National Endowment for the Humanities for research that examines the social and cultural role of modern technology, such as facial recognition, through a historical lens.

    Peter Rutland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s ‘Garden of American Heroes’ is a monument to celebrity and achievement – paid for with history funding that benefits everyday Americans – https://theconversation.com/trumps-garden-of-american-heroes-is-a-monument-to-celebrity-and-achievement-paid-for-with-history-funding-that-benefits-everyday-americans-254564

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Colors are objective, according to two philosophers − even though the blue you see doesn’t match what I see

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Elay Shech, Professor of Philosophy, Auburn University

    What appear to be blue and green spirals are actually the same color. Akiyoshi Kitaoka

    Is your green my green? Probably not. What appears as pure green to me will likely look a bit yellowish or blueish to you. This is because visual systems vary from person to person. Moreover, an object’s color may appear differently against different backgrounds or under different lighting.

    These facts might naturally lead you to think that colors are subjective. That, unlike features such as length and temperature, colors are not objective features. Either nothing has a true color, or colors are relative to observers and their viewing conditions.

    But perceptual variation has misled you. We are philosophers who study colors, objectivity and science, and we argue in our book “The Metaphysics of Colors” that colors are as objective as length and temperature.

    Perceptual variation

    There is a surprising amount of variation in how people perceive the world. If you offer a group of people a spectrum of color chips ranging from chartreuse to purple and asked them to pick the unique green chip – the chip with no yellow or blue in it – their choices would vary considerably. Indeed, there wouldn’t be a single chip that most observers would agree is unique green.

    Generally, an object’s background can result in dramatic changes in how you perceive its colors. If you place a gray object against a lighter background, it will appear darker than if you place it against a darker background. This variation in perception is perhaps most striking when viewing an object under different lighting, where a red apple could look green or blue.

    Of course, that you experience something differently does not prove that what is experienced is not objective. Water that feels cold to one person may not feel cold to another. And although we do not know who is feeling the water “correctly,” or whether that question even makes sense, we can know the temperature of the water and presume that this temperature is independent of your experience.

    Similarly, that you can change the appearance of something’s color is not the same as changing its color. You can make an apple look green or blue, but that is not evidence that the apple is not red.

    Under different lighting conditions, objects take on different colors.
    Gyozo Vaczi/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    For comparison, the Moon appears larger when it’s on the horizon than when it appears near its zenith. But the size of the Moon has not changed, only its appearance. Hence, that the appearance of an object’s color or size varies is, by itself, no reason to think that its color and size are not objective features of the object. In other words, the properties of an object are independent of how they appear to you.

    That said, given that there is so much variation in how objects appear, how do you determine what color something actually is? Is there a way to determine the color of something despite the many different experiences you might have of it?

    Matching colors

    Perhaps determining the color of something is to determine whether it is red or blue. But we suggest a different approach. Notice that squares that appear to be the same shade of pink against different backgrounds look different against the same background.

    The smaller squares may appear to be the same color, but if you compare them with the strip of squares at the bottom, they’re actually different shades.
    Shobdohin/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    It’s easy to assume that to prove colors are objective would require knowing which observers, lighting conditions and backgrounds are the best, or “normal.” But determining the right observers and viewing conditions is not required for determining the very specific color of an object, regardless of its name. And it is not required to determine whether two objects have the same color.

    To determine whether two objects have the same color, an observer would need to view the objects side by side against the same background and under various lighting conditions. If you painted part of a room and find that you don’t have enough paint, for instance, finding a match might be very tricky. A color match requires that no observer under any lighting condition will see a difference between the new paint and the old.

    Is the dress yellow and white or black and blue?

    That two people can determine whether two objects have the same color even if they don’t agree on exactly what that color is – just as a pool of water can have a particular temperature without feeling the same to me and you – seems like compelling evidence to us that colors are objective features of our world.

    Colors, science and indispensability

    Everyday interactions with colors – such as matching paint samples, determining whether your shirt and pants clash, and even your ability to interpret works of art – are hard to explain if colors are not objective features of objects. But if you turn to science and look at the many ways that researchers think about colors, it becomes harder still.

    For example, in the field of color science, scientific laws are used to explain how objects and light affect perception and the colors of other objects. Such laws, for instance, predict what happens when you mix colored pigments, when you view contrasting colors simultaneously or successively, and when you look at colored objects in various lighting conditions.

    The philosophers Hilary Putnam and Willard van Orman Quine made famous what is known as the indispensability argument. The basic idea is that if something is indispensable to science, then it must be real and objective – otherwise, science wouldn’t work as well as it does.

    For example, you may wonder whether unobservable entities such as electrons and electromagnetic fields really exist. But, so the argument goes, the best scientific explanations assume the existence of such entities and so they must exist. Similarly, because mathematics is indispensable to contemporary science, some philosophers argue that this means mathematical objects are objective and exist independently of a person’s mind.

    The color of an animal can exert evolutionary pressure.
    Paul Starosta/Stone via Getty Images

    Likewise, we suggest that color plays an indispensable role in evolutionary biology. For example, researchers have argued that aposematism – the use of colors to signal a warning for predators – also benefits an animal’s ability to gather resources. Here, an animal’s coloration works directly to expand its food-gathering niche insofar as it informs potential predators that the animal is poisonous or venomous.

    In fact, animals can exploit the fact that the same color pattern can be perceived differently by different perceivers. For instance, some damselfish have ultraviolet face patterns that help them be recognized by other members of their species and communicate with potential mates while remaining largely hidden to predators unable to perceive ultraviolet colors.

    In sum, our ability to determine whether objects are colored the same or differently and the indispensable roles they play in science suggest that colors are as real and objective as length and temperature.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Colors are objective, according to two philosophers − even though the blue you see doesn’t match what I see – https://theconversation.com/colors-are-objective-according-to-two-philosophers-even-though-the-blue-you-see-doesnt-match-what-i-see-234467

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: These 4 tips can make screen time good for your kids and even help them learn to talk

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Erika Squires, Assistant Professor, Wayne State University

    Getting involved when your kids are watching digital media can make it an educational experience, rather than just entertainment. damircudic/E+ via Getty Images

    Screen time permeates the lives of toddlers and preschoolers. For many young children, their exposure includes both direct viewing, such as watching a TV show, and indirect viewing, such as when media is on in the background during other daily activities.

    As many parents will know, research points to several negative effects of screen time. As scholars who specialize in speech pathology and early childhood development, we are particularly interested in the recent finding that too much screen time is associated with less parent-child talk, such as fewer conversational turns between parents and children.

    As a result, the American Academy of Pediatrics and World Health Organization suggest limiting screen time for children.

    Beyond quantity, they also emphasize the quality of a child’s engagement with digital media. Used in moderation, certain kinds of media can have educational and social benefits for children – and even contribute to language development.

    These tips may help parents structure and manage screen time more effectively.

    No. 1: Choose high-quality content

    Parents can enhance their children’s screen-time value by choosing high-quality media – that is, content with educational benefit. PBS Kids has many popular shows, from “Nature Cat” to “Sid the Science Kid,” that would qualify as educational.

    Two other elements contribute to the quality of screen time.

    First, screen content should be age-appropriate – that is, parents should choose shows, apps and games that are specifically designed for young children. Using a resource such as Common Sense Media allows parents to check recommended ages for television shows, movies and apps.

    Second, parents can look for shows that use evidence-based educational techniques, such as participatory cues. That’s when characters in shows break the “third wall” by directly talking to their young audience to prompt reflection, action or response. Research shows that children learn new words better when a show has participatory cues – perhaps because it encourages active engagement rather than passive viewing.

    Many classic, high-quality television shows for young children feature participatory cues, including “Mickey Mouse Clubhouse,” “Dora the Explorer,” “Go Diego Go!” and “Daniel Tiger’s Neighborhood.”

    No. 2: Join in on screen time

    The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that parents and children watch media together whenever possible.

    Screen time doesn’t have to look like this.
    kbeis/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

    This recommendation is based on the evidence that increased screen media use can reduce parent-child conversation. This, in turn, can affect language development. Intentionally discussing media content with children increases language exposure during screen time.

    Parents may find the following joint media engagement strategies useful:

    • Press pause and ask questions.
    • Point out basic concepts, such as letters and colors.
    • Model more advanced language using a “think aloud” approach, such as, “That surprised me! I wonder what will happen next?”

    No. 3: Connect what’s on screen to real life

    Learning from media is challenging for young children because their brains struggle to transfer information and ideas from screens to the real world. Children learn more from screen media, research shows, when the content connects to their real-life experiences.

    To maximize the benefits of screen time, parents can help children connect what they are viewing with experiences they’ve had. For example, while watching content together, a parent might say, “They’re going to the zoo. Do you remember what we saw when we went to the zoo?”

    This approach promotes language development and cognitive skills, including attention and memory. Children learn better with repeated exposure to words, so selecting media that relates to a child’s real-life experiences can help reinforce new vocabulary.

    No. 4: Enjoy screen-free times

    Ensuring that a child’s day is filled with varied experiences, including periods that don’t involve screens, increases language exposure in children’s daily routines.

    Two ideal screen-free times are mealtimes and bedtime. Mealtimes present opportunities for back-and-forth conversation with children, exposing them to a lot of language. Additionally, bedtime should be screen-free, as using screens near bedtime or having a TV in children’s bedrooms disrupts sleep.

    Alternatively, devoting bedtime to reading children’s books accomplishes the dual goals of helping children wind down and creating a language-rich routine.

    Having additional screen-free, one-on-one, parent-child play for at least 10 minutes at some other point in the day is good for young children. Parents can maximize the benefits of one-on-one play by letting their children decide what and how to play.

    Even in small doses, parent-child playtime is important.
    Vera Livchak/Moment via Getty Images

    A parent’s role here is to follow their child’s lead, play along, give their child their full attention – so no phones for mom or dad, either – and provide language enrichment. They can do this by labeling toys, pointing out shapes, colors and sizes. It can also be done by describing activities – “You’re rolling the car across the floor” – and responding when their child speaks.

    Parent-child playtime is also a great opportunity to extend interests from screen time. Including toys of your child’s favorite characters from the shows or movies they love in playtime transforms that enjoyment from screen time into learning.

    Lucy (Kathleen) McGoron receives funding from Michigan Health Endowment fund and SAMHSA.

    Erika Squires does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. These 4 tips can make screen time good for your kids and even help them learn to talk – https://theconversation.com/these-4-tips-can-make-screen-time-good-for-your-kids-and-even-help-them-learn-to-talk-242580

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hotter and drier climate in Colorado’s San Luis Valley contributes to kidney disease in agriculture workers, new study shows

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Katherine Ann James, Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

    Agricultural workers exposed to a hotter and drier climate are at an increased risk of kidney damage. George Rose/via Getty Images

    Heat and humidity contributed to kidney damage and disease in the San Luis Valley in Colorado between 1984 and 1998, according to our recently published work in the peer-reviewed journal Weather, Climate, and Society.

    The San Luis Valley is the largest high valley desert in North America. Many of its residents work in agriculture and are exposed to worsening air quality. That decline is due to increased wildfires, dust and temperatures, in combination with low humidity. This change was in part caused by the region’s climate becoming more arid due to a 23-year drought.

    I’m an environmental epidemiologist with an engineering background. For nearly two decades, I have partnered with the San Luis Valley community to investigate how water systems affect human health. Over the past eight years, my team’s research has focused on the far-reaching human health effects of the drought in the area.

    In this study, we used data from a cohort of people in the San Luis Valley who were originally recruited for research on the risk factors for Type 2 diabetes. Researchers often look to established datasets to evaluate new hypotheses because it avoids the need to recruit new study participants. This dataset includes 15 years of clinical, behavioral, demographic, genetic and environmental exposure data. Using it in our recent study allowed us to evaluate the impacts of drought conditions on kidney health.

    Our study suggests that a 10% decline in humidity is associated with a 2% increase in risk for acute kidney injury, while accounting for known risk factors for kidney disease. Those risk factors include age, sex, diabetes and hypertension.

    These findings are supported by our previous study that examined the effects of drought and heat on emergency and urgent care visits for kidney-related issues between 2003 and 2017 in the San Luis Valley.

    The two studies align with growing evidence that climate-related changes, particularly heat and humidity, are contributing to kidney injury. Over time, this means that more people are developing chronic kidney disease.

    Why it matters

    Globally, 10% of the population has kidney disease. In 2021, kidney diseases were the ninth leading cause of death worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. People experiencing poverty or limited access to health care are disproportionately affected.

    In the U.S., more than 1 in 7 adults has chronic kidney disease. That does not account for those with undiagnosed kidney disease.

    Extended exposure to drought conditions coupled with inadequate water intake has been linked to kidney stones, acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease.

    Dehydration, especially in outdoor workers who labor in hot or dry conditions, is a known contributor to both acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease.

    Acute kidney injury is characterized by a reduction in kidney function that is reversible.

    Chronic kidney disease is kidney damage that is progressive and may not be reversible.

    Studies in Florida and California have shown declining kidney health in agriculture workers as working conditions are becoming hotter and drier.

    Outdoor workers in agriculture, forestry, mining, ranching and construction are susceptible to the effects of changing outdoor conditions coupled with physical labor. This combination exacerbates dehydration and leads to acute and chronic kidney disease.

    What other research is being done

    In addition to these studies, our research team is involved in other projects aimed at addressing the health impacts of a changing climate.

    One such initiative is the Mountain West Climate-Health Engagement Hub, which focuses on reducing exposure to decreased air quality. This includes the deployment of do-it-yourself air filters and development of low-cost, point-of-use water filters to mitigate exposure to the secondary effects of drought.

    Do-it-yourself air filters can reduce exposure to decreased air quality.
    The Washington Post/Getty Images

    In the Centers for Health, Work & Environment, where I am affiliated, multiple national and international studies are focused on agriculture workers, farm owners and ranchers.

    These studies examine how heat, air quality and drought affect kidney, cardiovascular and mental health. These broader studies aim to inform policy and interventions to safeguard the health of workers globally and particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    Katherine Ann James receives funding from National Institutes of Health and CDC-National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health

    – ref. Hotter and drier climate in Colorado’s San Luis Valley contributes to kidney disease in agriculture workers, new study shows – https://theconversation.com/hotter-and-drier-climate-in-colorados-san-luis-valley-contributes-to-kidney-disease-in-agriculture-workers-new-study-shows-248402

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Florida, once considered a swing state, is firmly Republican – a social anthropologist explains what caused this shift

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alexander Lowie, Postdoctoral associate in Classical and Civic Education, University of Florida

    Florida has attracted new residents since the pandemic, as well as a growth in conservative politics. iStock / Getty Images Plus

    Florida has undergone a dramatic political transformation over the past decade from a swing state to Republican stronghold.

    Florida’s recent congressional special election on April 1, 2025, showcased the state’s increasingly conservative identity, when Republicans won both congressional seats.

    Still, Democrats felt hopeful about these results, since the two Democratic contenders lost by slimmer margins in the 1st and 6th districts than in other recent elections.

    As a political anthropologist who has conducted fieldwork in central Florida, I’ve spent over five years tracking the growth of conservative political groups like the Proud Boys and Moms for Liberty, whose leaderships are based in Florida.

    I’ve seen firsthand how conservative activist networks and the growth of culture war politics, among other factors, have reshaped Florida’s political identity.

    Florida’s Republican state Sen. Randy Fine holds a victory party on April 1, 2025, in Ormond Beach, Fla.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    The state that stopped swinging

    Although political strategists have historically considered Florida a swing state in presidential elections, it has consistently voted Republican since 1948.

    It has only voted for Democratic presidential candidates five times since 1964, for Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and twice for Barack Obama. President Donald Trump has won Florida three times in a row, most recently winning the 2024 election in all but six of Florida’s 67 counties.

    The main battleground since 2000 has been the I-4 Corridor, which connects Tampa, Orlando and Daytona. In 2000, President George W. Bush won the corridor by 4,400 votes. Since Bush only won Florida by 537 votes, and thus the presidency, the area became a top priority for both political parties.

    Some Democrats have said Florida’s political evolution happened gradually and then all at once.

    In 2012, there were almost 1.5 million more registered Democratic voters than Republicans in Florida. In 2020, Democrats’ advantage dropped to about 97,000. And by September 2024, there were almost 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats.

    Steve Schale, the head of Obama’s 2008 campaign in Florida, argues that this shift happened because the Democratic Party lost the support of some white voters.

    Republicans have also actively courted Hispanic voters, while Democrats falsely believed that young Hispanics would inherently lean toward their party.

    This assumption has hurt the Democratic cause because, for example, some Hispanic voters in Florida, like many Cuban Americans, have long favored Republican. In fact, Trump performed so well with Hispanics in Florida in 2024 that it was the only state in which he received more of the Hispanic vote than Kamala Harris.

    State-level conservative success

    Florida has also had a Republican governor since 1998, a state Senate Republican majority since 1995 and a state House majority since 1997. This Republican dominance has only grown since Trump’s 2016 election.

    In 2018, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received Trump’s endorsement and went from being relatively unknown in the gubernatorial primaries to the Republican nominee. He ultimately assumed office in 2019.

    Since then, DeSantis has successfully passed a slew of laws and policies reflecting the conservative values of what he saw as the new Floridian electorate.

    For example, DeSantis passed a six-week abortion ban measure into law in 2023.

    With DeSantis’ approval, Florida’s state Legislature also blocked diversity, equity and inclusion programs in state colleges in 2023 and banned lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity for public grade school students that same year.

    In 2023, the Florida governor also signed a law that allowed people to carry concealed weapons without a permit.

    The pandemic factor

    Some conservative political pundits and DeSantis supporters say that the governor’s COVID-19 policies are among the factors that have attracted newcomers to the state.

    Almost 300,000 people moved from out of state to Florida between April 2020 and April 2021, equal to roughly 903 people relocating to the state each day.

    The governor ordered Floridians to stay at home during April 2020, but many of his restrictions were lifted at the end of the month.

    DeSantis did not enforce mask mandates, vaccine requirements and other measures that were common in other states.

    During my fieldwork in Florida from 2022 through 2024, I met multiple people who moved to rural parts of the state because they did not want their lives to be severely restricted during the pandemic.

    One man in his early 50s stated, “During COVID my wife and I realized how screwed we were if things got really bad. We hated the lockdowns and got scared about not having enough food. If things got really bad, we didn’t want to trust other people, we wanted to be self-sufficient. So, we decided to get a place in the middle of the woods, on our own property, that we could go to if everything went to hell.”

    This couple settled on moving from out of state to a rural area of Florida, where they thought they had the best chance of avoiding future lockdown restrictions.

    DeSantis’ policy successes and his “freedom first” response to the pandemic have been celebrated by conservatives nationally.

    Moms for Liberty members in Viera, Fla., protest student face mask mandates in 2023.
    Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Gety Images

    Florida’s home for the alt-right

    As Florida lawmakers have continued to push conservative policies since the pandemic, Florida-based activist groups like Moms for Liberty have mobilized to support and expand them.

    Moms for Liberty was founded in 2021 by three Florida former school board members who opposed COVID-19 regulations during the pandemic.

    Moms for Liberty is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida, and is focused on reshaping public school curriculum to exclude what its members see as “woke” themes, like sexual orientation.

    The group lobbied for the 2022 Parental Rights in Education Act and the Stop-Woke Act, referred to by critics as the “Don’t Say Gay” law. This law restricts Florida classrooms from teaching kids in kindergarten through third grade about sexual orientation and gender identity, and also limits instruction on these subjects in higher grades.

    Florida has increasingly become a stronghold for other kinds of political activists, some of whom were instrumental in the Capitol riots on Jan. 6, 2021. Florida was home to 11.5% of the 716 people who were initially charged with participating in the Capitol riots.

    The most notable of these Jan. 6 arrests is Enrique Tarrio, a Miami native who has served as the symbolic leader of the Proud Boys, an alt-right “Western chauvinist” group.

    Alt-right activists are a minority of Florida’s conservative population. In my fieldwork, I have spoken to many Florida conservatives who did not identify with the Proud Boys or other alt-right groups – but were still sympathetic to many of their populist and conservative causes.

    No longer in play?

    Florida is now a major Republican stronghold with Floridians becoming increasingly prominent in national politics. Trump’s Cabinet has 23 people – 16 of them are connected to Florida.

    These include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who served as a senator in Florida, and Attorney General Pam Bondi, who served as Florida’s state attorney general.

    Though some Democrats may feel optimistic about the special election results, they have lost the Sunshine State, at least for now.

    Alexander Lowie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Florida, once considered a swing state, is firmly Republican – a social anthropologist explains what caused this shift – https://theconversation.com/florida-once-considered-a-swing-state-is-firmly-republican-a-social-anthropologist-explains-what-caused-this-shift-253905

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Iran nuclear deal: future stability of Middle East hangs on its success but initial signs are not good

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Simon Mabon, Professor of International Relations, Lancaster University

    For the second week in a row, senior officials from the United States and Iran will get together to take part in talks about the Iranian nuclear programme. It’s the second round in the latest negotiations – the first having taken place in Oman on April 12.

    But recent statements from both the White House and senior Iranian officials, including a difference of opinion on where the talks should be held, suggest that rapid diplomatic successes may not be forthcoming.

    Donald Trump’s stance on Iran has been unsurprisingly belligerent. It was the first Trump administration that withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposed the policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran. Since returning to the Oval Office, Trump has reimposed this policy of maximum pressure.



    Read more:
    Donald Trump backs out of Iran nuclear deal: now what?

    Posting on X, the US special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, declared that “Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program”. He also called for verification of any missiles stockpiled in the Islamic republic.

    Iranian officials vociferously rejected these US demands, with the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, asserting that the missile programme is not for discussion.

    Tehran needs a deal

    There is little doubt that Iran wants a deal, perhaps even needs a deal. It has been hit hard by sanctions over the past decade, which have hollowed out the country’s middle class.

    Israel’s military strikes on Iran and its allies over the past year have eroded the ideological and military clout of the Islamic Republic and wider “axis of resistance”. With the weakening of many of its allies, Iran’s missiles possess even greater importance as a deterrence.

    The strong line taken by the Trump administration leaves little room for manoeuvre. It risks further emboldening hardline elements in Iran, who are perhaps less willing to engage diplomatically. But any belligerent rhetoric from voices in Iran risks pouring fuel on an already incendiary situation.

    At the same time, the Islamic Republic faces a range of serious pressures domestically, such as that seen in the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, as well as increasingly vocal opposition from abroad – notably from the self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah who was ousted in 1979.

    Though Iran may want a deal, it cannot capitulate – particularly after the events of the last year. And nor should it.

    US weighs its strategy

    Hawks in the US, Israel and elsewhere have, of course, heralded the Trump administration’s stance. Fears of an Iranian nuclear programme continue to drive the actions of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and others – although reports have just emerged that proposed Israeli strikes on targets in Iran were vetoed by Trump in favour of more negotiation.

    While the Gulf states would once have celebrated a tough stance on Iran, the situation is different now. Iran’s long-time rival, Saudi Arabia, has put aside decades of animosity in the hope of a more prosperous shared future.

    In a 2023 agreement mediated by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalise relations, reopening embassies and embarking on a series of coordinated military exercises. For Saudi Arabia, and in particular its crown prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, regional stability is essential in realising the ambitious Vision2030 programme – which leans heavily into global investor confidence and trust.

    As a result, the kingdom undertook a pragmatic shift in its regional affairs, embarking on a process of diplomatic rapprochement that surprised many observers. Riyadh has also taken steps towards normalisation with Israel, though the ongoing destruction of Gaza has paused such moves, at least for now.

    At the same time as the nuclear negotiations take place, Israeli strikes on targets in Syria continue. The fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024 – and the back seat taken by its long-time supporter, Russia – has dramatically altered the political landscape of Syria.

    Though its former president, Bashar al-Assad, has found refuge in Russia, Moscow has taken a watching brief, eager not to antagonise Syria’s new regime and jeopardise its strategically important military bases on the Mediterranean coast. Members of groups previously favoured by the Assad regime, notably the Alawi communities, have fled to the Russian naval base at Latakia in search of protection.

    But thousands of others have been killed amid increasing violence as the forces of the new regime, led by Ahmad al-Shara, seek to extinguish all remnants of the Assad regime – a series of events that looks eerily similar to what occurred in Iraq 20 years ago, when the process of “de-Ba’athification” attempted to remove all traces of Saddam Hussein’s regime from public life.

    Fragile regional order

    The situation across the region is precarious, with the actions of global powers continuing to reverberate. While Washington puts pressure on Tehran and Moscow waits, the scope for Chinese influence in the region increases.

    Ironically, Trump’s tariffs on China may push Beijing further into the Middle East, seeking to capitalise on available opportunities. Its Belt and Road Initiative positions the Middle East firmly within China’s strategic interests. This is likely to open up a new front in the rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

    All the while, it is the people of the Middle East who continue to pay the heaviest price. Ongoing wars and insecurity, fears of a regional conflict, and precarious political conditions – as well as rising food prices and healthcare pressures – are creating a perfect storm that heightens the pressures and challenges of daily life.

    Simon Mabon receives funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Iran nuclear deal: future stability of Middle East hangs on its success but initial signs are not good – https://theconversation.com/iran-nuclear-deal-future-stability-of-middle-east-hangs-on-its-success-but-initial-signs-are-not-good-254817

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

    Thinktank More in Common recently published an MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll which appears to show that if there was a general election in the near future, Reform would win 180 seats. According to the analysis, Labour and the Conservatives would win 165 seats each and the Liberal Democrats 67. The modelling suggests that Labour could lose 246 seats including 153 to Reform and 64 to the Conservatives.

    More in Common claims that this is not a prediction of the result of the next election, writing: “With four and a half years before the next general election must be called this model is unlikely to represent anything close to the ultimate result and should not be seen as a projection of the election.” Despite this health warning, the poll has spooked some political journalists.

    It is worth remembering how MRP surveys work. Agencies ask a very large sample of electors about their voting intentions – enough to have an average sample size of about 25 respondents in each of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain. This allows them to use data from the census and other sources to identify constituency characteristics which influence individual voting decisions, such as social class, age and income.

    These are then combined with the survey data to get a prediction of how people are likely to vote in each constituency. This can then be used to predict seats won or lost by the parties in the election.

    More in Common did well in forecasting the results of the 2024 general election. Just prior to polling day it conducted a regular poll alongside an MRP poll, and it turned out that the regular one was more accurate in predicting the result than the MRP poll.

    A general problem with MRP polls

    This appears to be a general problem when MRP poll estimates are compared with traditional polls. The difficulty is that the MRP estimates can vary widely depending on the details of the modelling. In addition, the conditions required for MRP to work well are not always met by practitioners.

    To illustrate this last point, the models rely on demographic variables such as social class, gender and age at the constituency level to work well. If the relationship between these variables and constituency voting is strong, this will help to explain individual voting behaviour identified in the survey.

    But if the relationships are weak, the demographics will not be much help. This is a problem because the relationship between demographics, particularly social class, and voting, has been weakening over time.

    Social class and voting

    The chart below shows the relationship between the size of the working class in constituencies across Britain and voting Labour in the 1964 general election. Each dot represents a constituency, and social class is measured in the 1961 census by occupational status with, for example, labourers defined as working class and doctors as middle class.

    Labour leader, Harold Wilson, did a good job in mobilising working class voters in constituencies across Britain and went on to win in 1964. This was possible because of the strong positive relationship between the size of the working class and Labour voting apparent in the chart.

    Working class electors and Labour votes, 1964:

    The relationship between working class electors and Labour voting in 1964.
    P Whiteley, CC BY-ND

    Fast forward 55 years to the 2019 election and we see something completely different. By then the relationship between the size of the working class and Labour voting at the constituency level had largely disappeared.

    This means that in the 1964 election, constituency information about class would have been very helpful in conducting an MRP survey. However, by 2019 it would have been of little use.

    To understand voting behaviour, we need a clear theory of why people vote the way they do. In 1967, political sociologist Peter Pulzer wrote: “In British party politics, social class is everything, all else is embellishment and detail.” This is no longer true.

    Working class electors and Labour votes, 2019:

    The relationship between working class electors and Labour voting in 2019.
    P Whiteley, CC BY-ND

    Now we are in an age of performance politics with parties judged on their ability to deliver the things that people want, like economic growth, low inflation and efficient public services. Class ties are increasingly irrelevant to this because electors will change their votes if they think another party will do a better job.

    In relation to the upcoming local elections, this means that potholes are likely to be more important to voters than their social class identities. If the 2021 census had asked about attitudes to potholes that would be very useful in constructing an MRP, but unfortunately it did not.

    This means that the constituency data used in MRP polling often comes from other surveys rather than from the census, which has the advantage of interviewing everyone. More in Common explains that it used post-election polling to approximate the demographics needed at the constituency level, which of course is an additional source of potential error.

    MRPs are now a feature of the polling landscape, and they are useful in the run-up to a general election. But it’s questionable whether it is worth spending a lot of money to acquire the large samples needed to make them work when the election is years into the future.

    Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC.

    – ref. MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution – https://theconversation.com/mrp-poll-puts-reform-ahead-of-labour-and-the-tories-heres-why-the-finding-should-be-treated-with-caution-255296

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –