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Category: Reportage

  • MIL-OSI Global: How I’m teaching Holocaust literature in light of Canadian recommendations around combatting antisemitism

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Regan Lipes, Extended Sessional Instructor, English and Comparative Literature, MacEwan University

    As university students encounter hate speech, like statements perpetrated by music industry personalities they may have once enjoyed, they have questions about antisemitism — and what it really is.

    I research and teach Jewish literature with a focus on Holocaust narratives. With rising tensions on both sides of the Israel-Hamas War, and 24 hostages still in captivity, Canadian communities feel the continued conflict domestically.

    In December 2024, the House of Commons’s Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights released a comprehensive document: Heightened Anisemitism in Canada and How to Combat It.

    Since Oct. 7, 2023, societal tolerance for blatant acts of antisemitism has risen. This makes this document all the more timely, especially as it reports: “Many witnesses noted that the rise in antisemitism has been particularly acute on university campuses.”

    Among the document’s 19 recommendations is guidance around Holocaust education and remembrance. While there is longstanding scholarly discussion around best practices and ethics pertaining to teaching the Holocaust and remembrance, educators must also be responsive to our current — and evolving — contexts.

    Here, I share ways I have sought to adapt my own approach to teaching Holocaust literature. For educators wondering how to begin approaching the integration of Holocaust topics, a 2020 collection of articles on the subject, Understanding and Teaching the Holocaust, edited by Laura Hilton (professor of history) and Avinoam Patt (professor of Holocaust studies), could be a launching point.

    Modern-day antisemitism, trajectories

    The committee’s sixth recommendation is that the government of Canada work with provinces and territories to “ensure that Holocaust education in public schools and other institutions includes explanations of modern-day antisemitism and integrates a Jewish community-centered lens.”

    For a course teaching film adaptations of the Holocaust, I solicited the assistance of a colleague, historian Carson Phillips, at the Azrieli Foundation, a charity whose eight funding areas include Holocaust education and legacy, to tackle this recommendation.

    Working with Phillips brought an additional voice to the discussion of how Holocaust denial and Holocaust distortion are connected to antisemitism. Holocaust denial is a form of antisemitism with all its malignant intentions.



    Read more:
    How Hitler conspiracies and other Holocaust disinformation undermine democratic institutions

    Phillips suggested I try to additionally focus on survivor memoirs that explore life prior to the Holocaust to illustrate the trajectory of antisemitic agendas. He noted I should concentrate on memoirs with a connection to Canada so this message would be more relevant for my students.

    He provided me with A Cry in Unison by Judy Cohen,
    Flights of Spirit by Elly Gotz and Memories in Focus by Pinchas Gutter. I also applied his advice in the fiction I taught and incorporated the 1970 novel, Crackpot, by Adele Wiseman, to show that between the First and Second World Wars in Canada, there was societal antisemitism and social isolation of Jews.

    To further connect this to a Canadian context, and to consider trajectories of hate, in the future I may include content around how there were plans to export the “final solution” from Europe to North America. This illustrates that tolerance of antisemitism can quickly threaten societal stability.

    Antisemitism far predates Nazism

    I wanted my students to see that although the Holocaust was caused by antisemitism, antisemitism long predated the rise of Nazism and survives today because of a lack of shared awareness.

    The Art Gallery of Alberta recently hosted an exhibit Here to Tell of photograph portraits of Holocaust survivors and their recorded testimonies.



    Read more:
    Holocaust survivor stories are reminders of why we need to educate against antisemitism

    In three of my courses, I gave the extra credit option to visit the exhibition and reflect on ideas, themes and concepts that resonated. Similar engagement is being implemented in high school classes to address Alberta’s curricular requirements.

    This has the aim of better informing learners about what can occur when xenophobia and hate are allowed to proliferate.

    The documentary connected to the exhibit vividly illustrates why antisemitism is dangerous when left to fester and breed, or if misinformation masquerades as fact.

    ‘Here to Tell: Faces of Holocaust Survivors’ project.

    As recent events in a suburb of Edmonton suggest, not combating antisemitism allows the tentacles of white supremacy and xenophobia to affect other communities too. There, masked demonstrators stood with an apparent anti-immigration sign while one gave a Nazi salute.

    Addressing Holocaust remembrance

    The eighth recommendation of Heightened Antisemitism calls for the government of Canada, “in line with its commitment to build strong communities and celebrate multiculturalism,” to “provide funding to develop a five-year program to enhance the literacy of post-secondary students regarding the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism.”

    For me as an educator, this made the marking of International Holocaust Remembrance Day (IHRD) especially meaningful in the context of classroom learning in Alberta.

    After all, Alberta was the province where James Keegstra first began teaching Holocaust denial to high school students in the 1980s. After Prof. Anthony Hall of the University of Lethbridge finally retired in 2018, it seemed like Holocaust denial and baseless vilification of Zionism was on the decline in Alberta. As reported by CBC, in 2016 Hall was suspended without pay for “allegedly promoting conspiracy theories and denying the Holocaust in online articles and videos.”

    This year was the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau, and to to mark IHRD, I organized two guest speakers to present their research to students. Speakers helped contextualize the immediate legacy of the Holocaust and how this contributes to contemporary antisemitism.

    With Yom HaShoah (Jewish Holocaust Remembrance Day) soon approaching, these discussions should be at the forefront of Canadian human rights awareness.



    Read more:
    How Jan. 27 came to be International Day of Commemoration in Memory of the Victims of the Holocaust

    Wider implications

    Although my students are likely not familiar with the report’s broader recommendations for how to combat antisemitism, a sizeable portion of the report’s advice does focus on university campuses. There are implications far beyond teaching the Holocaust or Jewish subject matters which may potentially impact students.

    Recommendations include:

    • Calls for more robust and effective strategies to combat antisemitism and safeguard Jewish communities across Canada;

    • For action to address antisemitic incidents;

    • That the “full diversity of the Jewish identity be acknowledged within Equity, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) frameworks, including Jewish peoplehood, ethnicity, nationality, multi-denominational religion, cultural diversity, and language, as well as Zionist and Indigenous aspects of Jewish identity.” This point notes that “this includes the recognition of Zionism as the self-determination of Jewish people in their ancestral homeland of Israel.”

    It has yet to be seen how a change in federal Canadian leadership will uphold the values articulated in this important committee report, but the document does provide hope for Holocaust educators and broader Canadian communities isolated by a rise in hate.

    Regan Lipes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How I’m teaching Holocaust literature in light of Canadian recommendations around combatting antisemitism – https://theconversation.com/how-im-teaching-holocaust-literature-in-light-of-canadian-recommendations-around-combatting-antisemitism-247747

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Humanity depends on the ocean — Here is what we need to prioritize for immediate ocean science research

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Brad deYoung, Robert Bartlett Professor of Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland

    Humankind is inextricably dependent on the ocean. Many of our greatest civilizations have thrived on the rim of the ocean. Today, we are more reliant than ever on the ocean for our economic, social and physical well-being.

    Maritime activities, from global trade to tourism, exceed US$3 trillion annually. The “ocean economy” is the fourth largest in the world. Furthermore, our global economic vitality is largely due to the cost-effective nature of ocean transportation, which contributes to the reduced price per ton of shipped goods.

    From submarine cables to shipping, fisheries and aquaculture, we are increasingly reliant on the blue economy. Roughly 20 per cent of the animal protein that we eat comes from marine fish.

    The ocean has changed dramatically in the past century, and we expect more change to come. Collapses of fisheries, coral reefs, shark populations and other species — along with increased dead zones, red tide blooms and invasive species — have followed increased human development, industrial use of the sea, climate change and pollution.

    Humanity is at a social, political, environmental and scientific nexus point.

    We are a group of researchers and experts who served on a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to advise the National Science Foundation on forward-looking approaches to investing in ocean science research, infrastructure and workforce development.

    We considered the question: What vital research must we pursue now, and what investments must we make to achieve ambitious research goals?

    Our scientific efforts must focus on the key gaps in our predictive knowledge, and on the critical pathways and thresholds for ocean change. We should support ocean science to prepare for the future.

    Readying ocean science

    Given limited resources and rapid changes, we need to consider how to set priorities. Our committee offered a distinction between urgent and vital research: urgent research is time-sensitive, with immediate relevance to emerging regional and global issues, while vital research transforms our ability to grapple with rapid changes in the ocean and the Earth system.

    Our ability to observe, model and understand the ocean has greatly increased in recent years.

    For example, Argo — an ocean weather observing system — provides a global view of water properties around the planet. Argo has expanded our understanding of the global ocean and has significantly improved weather forecasts.

    In addition, research on the impact of climate shifts on ocean species is more accurate, helping us to understand the impact of these shifts on carbon sequestration, shoreline protection from storms and tipping points in interconnected ocean systems.

    The growing focus on links between the chemical, physical, geological and biological states of the ocean, and planetary climate states, provides a much-improved structure for forecasting the state of the ocean.

    Healthy oceans, healthy people

    A focus on human well-being and its dependence on ocean processes can provide an important connection that places ocean sciences in key conversations related to human health.

    When it comes to understanding the importance of ocean and climate, we need to determine how the ocean’s ability to absorb heat and carbon dioxide will change. While the ocean presently absorbs 90 per cent of global heat and roughly 30 per cent of carbon dioxide, changes in the physical and biological ocean will likely slow these rates, leading to accelerated atmospheric warming.

    Related to this climate question, how will marine ecosystems respond to changes in the Earth system? Declining ecosystem resilience will likely have strong negative impacts on food supplies and livelihoods.

    Can we develop new understanding that will support model forecasts to determine the effects of warming, acidification and de-oxygenation on marine life?

    Another challenge is to improve our ability to forecast extreme events driven by ocean and seafloor processes. Marine earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes and storm surges are natural processes that pose serious risks to human well-being. Societal vulnerability to these extreme events can be profound.

    As our built coastal infrastructure expands, and climate change shifts patterns of such extreme events, it is critical to improve our ability to observe, understand and forecast extreme events.

    Investing in ocean futures

    Ocean research depends on continued funding of basic studies and investment in key ocean science infrastructure. We must integrate emerging technologies, artificial intelligence and expanded use of existing ocean infrastructure such as globally ranging research vessels, global drifters that float on the ocean surface and gather information, underwater communication cables and coastal marine laboratories.

    International co-operation is needed since few of these challenges are truly local. A move towards more collaborative, transdisciplinary research is necessary, alongside an expanded ocean science workforce with training and knowledge well beyond those of traditional disciplines.

    Our assessment of the state of ocean science in the United States identified key infrastructure required to address these challenges.

    For example, while advances in autonomous vehicle technology offer many opportunities, there will remain a need for specialized research ships that can operate in coastal and deep-sea waters and ice-covered regions to drill for** seafloor samples. Globally, there has been a decline in available ships to support ocean research.

    Likewise, nearly 100 marine laboratories dot U.S. coastlines, providing training, access and research for thousands of students each year. The development of this infrastructure offers opportunities for international collaboration and cooperation with private sector partners. It may also be that some of the existing infrastructure, such as the Ocean Observatories Initiative, needs to be reconsidered in light of shifting priorities and developing technologies.

    An ocean glider deployed at sea.
    (B. DeYoung), CC BY-ND

    Collective action

    We differentiate between urgent and vital ocean science research priorities.

    While the urgent will continue to demand our attention — the next coral bleaching event, the latest fisheries collapse — it is our commitment to the vital research priorities identified in the report that will ultimately determine our ability to steward rather than merely react to complex changes in the oceans.

    Our work offers a compass, but navigation requires collective action. Research institutions must transform their approach: restructuring tenure and promotion criteria to reward transdisciplinary investigations, supporting reskilling and upskilling of faculty, and preparing an innovative, adept workforce.

    Policymakers must create frameworks that value long-term investigation. And citizens must advocate for sustained investments in ocean science that transcend political cycles. The ocean’s future — and our own — depends on our willingness to pursue what is vital.

    Kristen St John receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation. She is the author of a lab book Reconstructing Earth’s Climate History: Inquiry-Based Exercises for the Lab and Class, and an in press textbook Earth’s Climate: A Geoscience Perspective.

    Mona Behl receives funding from U.S. National Science Foundation, the National Aeronautic and Space Agency, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. She is affiliated with the American Meteorological Society, and the Oceanography Society.

    Peter Girguis receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Schmidt Sciences, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. He is affiliated with Harvard University, Schmidt Sciences, and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution .

    Richard W Murray has received funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation and other U.S. federal agencies.

    Stephen Palumbi receives funding from NSF, The Pew Charitable Trusts among other sources. He is affiliated with The Ocean Conservancy as a Board member, and is a member of the National Academies of Sciences. He has been vocal about the value and fun of bringing ocean science to the general public in book like The Extreme Life of the Sea and the upcoming book Born Predators.

    Brad deYoung does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Humanity depends on the ocean — Here is what we need to prioritize for immediate ocean science research – https://theconversation.com/humanity-depends-on-the-ocean-here-is-what-we-need-to-prioritize-for-immediate-ocean-science-research-252247

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Accra is a tough city to walk in: how city planners can fix the problem

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Seth Asare Okyere, Visiting lecturer, University of Pittsburg and Adjunct Associate Professor, Osaka University, University of Pittsburgh

    Humans are walking beings. Walking is intrinsically linked to our physical development from childhood and enables our connections with people and places. We can say it is essential to our physical and mental well-being.

    Walking can also help create inclusive and sustainable cities. Most western cities incorporate this need in their spatial planning.

    In African countries like Ghana, however, the fact that most people walk doesn’t always mean they prefer to. They need to walk because it’s cheaper than using motor vehicles. But many African cities are not friendly to pedestrians.

    More than 70% of the urban population in Africa walk daily for various purposes. To deal with the challenges pedestrians encounter, some African cities have incorporated policies and strategies for walking into their motorised transport policies. For instance, in Nigeria, the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority has developed a policy that aims to create a safe and pleasant network of footpaths, greenways and other facilities that serve everyone in the city.

    In Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), a similar policy was developed. Its objective is to increase the number of people who walk by investing in walking facilities and improving connectivity to public transport.

    The strategies in these documents are commendable, but they have met practical challenges like funding, public perception and technical capacity.

    Ghana also has several transport and local development planning policies. Yet most urban areas in Ghana don’t have walking infrastructure and a safe walking environment.

    As scholars interested in sustainable urban development planning and policy, we reviewed some of these policies to explore how they treat walking as a way of getting around. The research also assessed institutional perspectives and residents’ everyday lived experiences of walkability in Accra, the capital city. We found that both policies and urban plans paid little attention to making the walking experience enjoyable.



    Read more:
    City streets: why South Africa should design more people-friendly spaces

    The study

    The Ghana Transport Survey Report indicates that over three-quarters (75.3%) of the country’s population make up to ten daily trips on foot, and most urban areas lack walking infrastructure. Pedestrians account for about 42% of road deaths in Ghana.

    We chose two study sites in Accra, the capital, where many come to find work. The sites represented inner-city and suburban areas. The research used in-depth and semi-structured interviews with 80 people to capture the perspectives of institutional representatives and community residents. We explored walking experiences in terms of accessibility, safety and enjoyment.

    Findings

    Accessibility: The national transport policy seeks to provide dedicated, safe, reliable and appropriate facilities for users across all transport modes. What we found, however, was an absence of infrastructure to enhance pedestrian access to facilities and services.

    One resident commented:

    The roads are not only in poor condition but they have no sidewalks. It is not hard to assume that these were built for car owners, not pedestrians’ everyday use.

    Safety: The research revealed a chasm between policy ambitions for walking and realities at the community level. Municipal development plans don’t say how they will address the frequent crashes that result from commuters, vendors and motorists competing for space. The most at risk are pedestrians, who represent 42% of transport-related fatalities. This is because of noncompliance with bylaws that regulate activities on the roads and pedestrian pathways.

    One municipal official said:

    Look at the streets: Motorists, street vendors, school children on the same street space. There is encroachment, reckless driving, illegally parked cars on road shoulders. School children and the disabled face constant risks. But the plan aims to make the neighborhoods walkable. Just words as always.

    Enjoyment: Enjoyment was the least considered aspect of walkability in both national policy and municipal development plans. The absence of facilities and infrastructure that offer comfort, aesthetics and other pleasures for pedestrians provides a clear indication of this.

    A community leader complained:

    Flooding and poor sanitation create an unpleasant walking environment. Clogged waste, poor drains, and rubbish along streets and alleyways are a problem. There is nothing pleasant about walking: the smell, the dust, the noise and the heat. You walk because you have no choice.



    Read more:
    New forms of urban planning are emerging in Africa

    Towards cities that are walkable

    The deep gulf between what the policies say and everyday experiences in our study calls for new ways of thinking and implementation within the urban transport in Ghana’s development planning regime.

    We suggest that there is a need for transport planners, urban and development planners, and policymakers to consider coproduction strategies in identifying, framing, developing, and implementing interventions. This will help harness the potential for walking as a social equaliser and its contribution to healthy, safe, equitable cities and communities.

    Here, action-oriented collaborative strategies like workshops that consider communities as partners can transition African urban residents from captive walkers to walkers who enjoy it.

    Seth Asare Okyere receives funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations.

    Daniel Oviedo receives funding from University College London and the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations.

    Louis Kusi Frimpong receives funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF) funding program

    Mariajose Nieto receives funding from Volvo Research and Educational Foundation

    Matthew Abunyewah and Stephen Leonard Mensah do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Accra is a tough city to walk in: how city planners can fix the problem – https://theconversation.com/accra-is-a-tough-city-to-walk-in-how-city-planners-can-fix-the-problem-253636

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kennedy Mbeva, Research Associate, University of Cambridge

    A new world order is emerging. The United States is no longer the sole force shaping global events; countries like China, Russia, India and the Gulf states are growing in influence.

    This shift has intensified global competition and made international cooperation more challenging. In today’s world, power, not rules, is the key driver of global affairs.

    What is Africa’s role? Drawing on our research, we argue that the continent should adopt a pragmatic strategy involving two elements. First, identifying issues suitable for collective action, like climate diplomacy and a seat at the UN security council. Second, recognising those that require regional or domestic policy, such as regional conflicts and trade agreements.

    We propose this approach because Africa is not a single state or supranational entity. A grand strategy is therefore impractical. Instead, our proposal accepts that some issues are best tackled collectively, while others may require regional or unilateral action.

    New doctrines are needed

    Countries could collectively adopt something like a “doctrine”, such as the Lagos Plan of Action (1980-2000). The plan outlines an ambitious goal of boosting Africa’s self-reliance through development and economic integration. Also, the Declaration of Monrovia of 1973, which emphasises the need for collective self-reliance. This was Africa’s contribution to the calls for a new international economic order at the end of the second world war. While these documents were developed to reflect the world at that time, they may serve as an inspiration for a new strategy that reflects the emerging new world order.

    The Monroe and Truman doctrines outlined how the US could secure its global dominance. Both highlight the power of well-defined principles in guiding strategy.

    African countries could adopt a new doctrine on how the continent can enhance its position in the emerging global order. The doctrine would present an opportunity for African countries to develop a clear and coherent strategy for effective engagement, appreciating the opportunities and limitations of the new world order. It should also appreciate the difficulty of coordinating diverse countries in the continent. This is possible by building on the spirit and legacy of Lagos and Monrovia strategies.



    Read more:
    African Union’s new chair has a long list of tough tasks – what it will take to get them done

    Seismic changes

    Geoeconomics, where security and economics influence geopolitics, is reshaping Africa.

    Concerns have been raised about the possible termination of the African Growth and Opportunity Act by the US administration. This legislation grants African countries preferential access to the US market.

    For their part, African countries established the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement in 2018 to create a continental common market and reduce dependence on the global economic system.

    Yet Africa’s ambitious trade plans face threats from global shifts as well as internal dynamics. For example, the Trump administration has slammed high tariffs on virtually all trade partners, including African countries. Lesotho received the highest tariffs (50%) of all US trading partners. This might affect preferential access agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

    Other major economies such as the EU and China are also exploring opportunities to conclude bilateral trade deals with African countries. These developments could undermine the goal of creating an exclusive continental market.

    Internal dynamics within the continent are also not stable. When Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to form the Alliance of Sahel States in 2024, commentators blamed regional instability. We argue, however, that the breakup of Ecowas is a warning about the limits of integration.

    The fact that the Alliance for Sahel States is based on a security pact rather than economic integration highlights how extreme risks can reconfigure continental unity. For fragile states, securing political stability is necessary for economic integration. Security rather than economics is the primary policy concern for such states.

    Similar challenges arise in climate diplomacy. African countries, which have contributed least to global climate change, are pressured to assume greater responsibility with little international support. Yet they continue suffering its worsening impacts. At the same time, African states have received little of the international support necessary to support them to address climate action. Such support includes climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.

    African policymakers have responded creatively by making their national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement conditional on international support in finance, technology transfer and capacity-building. And they say initiatives to address climate change should also contribute to the broader goals of sustainable development.

    As we argue in a recently published book, this approach ensures that Africa can pursue sustainable development while contributing to the global climate effort. It also aligns with the continent’s long-standing emphasis on the development aspects of environmental politics.

    The solution

    Our suggestion is a simple, pragmatic concept: African countries should work together on some issues and act alone on others.

    Unlike the common African positions adopted through the African Union, this approach clearly lays out when cooperation is best and when countries should follow their own path. It offers a clear set of guiding principles such as the need for flexibility for cooperation and unilateral actions when consensus is unattainable. This can serve as a blueprint for future policies and help coordinate Africa’s diplomacy.

    This has several advantages. It’s simple and straightforward, recognises national differences while encouraging cooperation, and strengthens Africa’s voice and role on the global stage.

    A major challenge is getting all countries to agree on how flexibility should balance between consensus and unilateral action by African countries.

    But the strategy would acknowledge the need for flexibility to balance Africa’s ambition for greater global leadership. This must also be within the limits set by global and domestic realities.



    Read more:
    The African Union is weak because its members want it that way – experts call for action on its powers

    Looking forward

    As the world adjusts to a new global order where multilateralism is in decline and power politics dominate, Africa can take advantage of opportunities to shape global affairs and secure its collective policy goals. This can be done through its seat at the G20.

    But it requires a clear and coherent strategy.

    Dr Kennedy Mbeva receives funding from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment

    Reuben Makomere receives funding from University of Cambridge – Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CESR)

    – ref. Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be – https://theconversation.com/power-drives-global-affairs-today-not-rules-what-africas-strategies-should-be-251078

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Linggong Kong, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Auburn University

    When Donald Trump pulled back on his plan to impose eye-watering tariffs on trading partners across the world, there was one key exception: China.

    While the rest of the world would be given a 90-day reprieve on additional duties beyond the new 10% tariffs on all U.S. trade partners, China would feel the squeeze even more. On April 9, 2025, Trump raised the tariff on Chinese goods to 125%.

    The move, in Trump’s telling, was prompted by Beijing’s “lack of respect for global markets.” But the U.S. president may well have been smarting from Beijing’s apparent willingness to confront U.S. tariffs head on.

    While many countries opted not to retaliate against Trump’s now-delayed reciprocal tariff hikes, instead favoring negotiation and dialogue, Beijing took a different tack. It responded with swift and firm countermeasures. On April 11, China dismissed Trump’s moves as a “joke” and raised its own tariff against the U.S. to 125%.

    The two economies are now locked in an all-out, high-intensity trade standoff. And China is showing no signs of backing down.

    And as an expert on U.S.-China relations, I wouldn’t expect China to. Unlike the first U.S.-China trade war during Trump’s initial term, when Beijing eagerly sought to negotiate with the U.S., China now holds far more leverage.

    Indeed, Beijing believes it can inflict at least as much damage on the U.S. as vice versa, while at the same time expanding its global position.

    A changed calculus for China

    There’s no doubt that the consequences of tariffs are severe for China’s export-oriented manufacturers – especially those in the coastal regions producing furniture, clothing, toys and home appliances for American consumers.

    Amid tariffs, China’s President Xi Jinping senses a historic opportunity.
    Carlos Barria/AFP via Getty Images

    But since Trump first launched a tariff increase on China in 2018, a number of underlying economic factors have significantly shifted Beijing’s calculus.

    Crucially, the importance of the U.S. market to China’s export-driven economy has declined significantly. In 2018, at the start of the first trade war, U.S.-bound exports accounted for 19.8% of China’s total exports. In 2023, that figure had fallen to 12.8%. The tariffs may further prompt China to accelerate its “domestic demand expansion” strategy, unleashing the spending power of its consumers and strengthening its domestic economy.

    And while China entered the 2018 trade war in a phase of strong economic growth, the current situation is quite different. Sluggish real estate markets, capital flight and Western “decoupling” have pushed the Chinese economy into a period of persistent slowdown.

    Perhaps counterintuitively, this prolonged downturn may have made the Chinese economy more resilient to shocks. It has pushed businesses and policymakers to come to factor in the existing harsh economic realities, even before the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

    Trump’s tariff policy against China may also allow Beijing a useful external scapegoat, allowing it to rally public sentiment and shift blame for the economic slowdown onto U.S. aggression.

    China also understands that the U.S. cannot easily replace its dependency on Chinese goods, particularly through its supply chains. While direct U.S. imports from China have decreased, many goods now imported from third countries still rely on Chinese-made components or raw materials.

    By 2022, the U.S. relied on China for 532 key product categories – nearly four times the level in 2000 – while China’s reliance on U.S. products was cut by half in the same period.

    There’s a related public opinion calculation: Rising tariffs are expected to drive up prices, something that could stir discontent among American consumers, particularly blue-collar voters. Indeed, Beijing believes Trump’s tariffs risk pushing the previously strong U.S. economy toward a recession.

    U.S. President Donald Trump looks at Chinese President Xi Jinping during the plenary session at the G20 Summit on July 7, 2017, in Hamburg, Germany.
    Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

    Potent tools for retaliation

    Alongside the changed economic environments, China also holds a number of strategic tools for retaliation against the U.S.

    It dominates the global rare earth supply chain – critical to military and high-tech industries – supplying roughly 72% of U.S. rare earth imports, by some estimates. On March 4, China placed 15 American entities on its export control list, followed by another 12 on April 9. Many were U.S. defense contractors or high-tech firms reliant on rare earth elements for their products.

    China also retains the ability to target key U.S. agricultural export sectors such as poultry and soybeans – industries heavily dependent on Chinese demand and concentrated in Republican-leaning states. China accounts for about half of U.S. soybean exports and nearly 10% of American poultry exports. On March 4, Beijing revoked import approvals for three major U.S. soybean exporters.

    And on the tech side, many U.S. companies – such as Apple and Tesla – remain deeply tied to Chinese manufacturing. Tariffs threaten to shrink their profit margins significantly, something Beijing believes can be used as a source of leverage against the Trump administration. Already, Beijing is reportedly planning to strike back through regulatory pressure on U.S. companies operating in China.

    Meanwhile, the fact that Elon Musk, a senior Trump insider who has clashed with U.S. trade adviser Peter Navarro against tariffs, has major business interests in China is a particularly strong wedge that Beijing could yet exploit in an attempt to divide the Trump administration.

    Chinese and U.S. flags fly at a booth during the first China International Import Expo on Nov. 6, 2018, in Shanghai.
    Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

    A strategic opening for China?

    While Beijing thinks it can weather Trump’s sweeping tariffs on a bilateral basis, it also believes the U.S. broadside against its own trading partners has created a generational strategic opportunity to displace American hegemony.

    Close to home, this shift could significantly reshape the geopolitical landscape of East Asia. Already on March 30 – after Trump had first raised tariffs on Beijing – China, Japan and South Korea hosted their first economic dialogue in five years and pledged to advance a trilateral free trade agreement. The move was particularly remarkable given how carefully the U.S. had worked to cultivate its Japanese and South Korean allies during the Biden administration as part of its strategy to counter Chinese regional influence. From Beijing’s perspective, Trump’s actions offer an opportunity to directly erode U.S. sway in the Indo-Pacific.

    Could China’s dragon economy slay Trump’s tariffs?
    Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images

    Similarly, Trump’s steep tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, which were also a major strategic regional priority during the Biden administration, may push those nations closer to China. Chinese state media announced on April 11 that President Xi Jinping will pay state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia from April 14-18, aiming to deepen “all-round cooperation” with neighboring countries. Notably, all three Southeast Asian nations were targeted with now-paused reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration – 49% on Cambodian goods, 46% on Vietnamese exports and 24% on products from Malaysia.

    Farther away from China lies an even more promising strategic opportunity. Trump’s tariff strategy has already prompted China and officials from the European Union to contemplate strengthening their own previously strained trade ties, something that could weaken the transatlantic alliance that had sought to decouple from China.

    On April 8, the president of the European Commission held a call with China’s premier, during which both sides jointly condemned U.S. trade protectionism and advocated for free and open trade. Coincidentally, on April 9, the day China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, the EU also announced its first wave of retaliatory measures – imposing a 25% tariff on selected U.S. imports worth over €20 billion – but delayed implementation following Trump’s 90-day pause.

    Now, EU and Chinese officials are holding talks over existing trade barriers and considering a full-fledged summit in China in July.

    Finally, China sees in Trump’s tariff policy a potential weakening of the international standing of the U.S. dollar. Widespread tariffs imposed on multiple countries have shaken investor confidence in the U.S. economy, contributing to a decline in the dollar’s value.

    Traditionally, the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds have been viewed as haven assets, but recent market turmoil has cast doubt on that status. At the same time, steep tariffs have raised concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and the sustainability of its debt, undermining trust in both the dollar and U.S. Treasurys.

    While Trump’s tariffs will inevitably hurt parts of the Chinese economy, Beijing appears to have far more cards to play this time around. It has the tools to inflict meaningful damage on U.S. interests – and perhaps more importantly, Trump’s all-out tariff war is providing China with a rare and unprecedented strategic opportunity.

    Linggong Kong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand – https://theconversation.com/in-trade-war-with-the-us-china-holds-a-lot-more-cards-than-trump-may-think-in-fact-it-might-have-a-winning-hand-254173

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident submarine commander

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Corbett, Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies, King’s College London

    Gen Christopher Cavoli is due to come to the end of his term as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (Saceur) this summer. Since 1951, this post has been filled by American four-star officers, admirals or generals.

    But Cavoli might be the last American in the role, at least for a while. The Trump administration is considering relinquishing this important post as part of a cost-saving US Armed Forces command restructuring exercise and, potentially, as a step back from its leading role in European security since the 1950s. In parallel, the UK and German defence ministers have taken over chairing this week’s Ukraine Defence Contact Group, a gathering of defence ministers from 30 countries, which has previously been chaired by the US defense secretary.

    Cavoli said, during a hearing in the Senate this month, that it would be problematic if the US steps back from its leadership role in Nato. Previous heads of the Nato command have agreed. They’re not wrong. Removing the American Saceur position is not an internal matter like replacing senior officers serving in US posts who do not fit a particular political profile. It would have profound effects on Nato’s military capability and immediately significant and tangible repercussions for alliance deterrence strategy.

    An enemy’s perception of the military capability of Nato forces is a fundamental element of its deterrence strategy. Replacing a US Supreme Commander with a European would inject significant uncertainty into perceptions of US commitment to Nato and could critically undermine that perception of coherent military strength. It would be made to work, but Nato’s deterrence posture would be less convincing, and this is especially important given European concerns about Russian aggression in the region.

    It is not clear yet how the Trump administration’s view of Nato will evolve. Public statements advocating support for Nato contradict private views expressed by his cabinet in the notorious Signal-gate chat. Previous US president, Joe Biden, viewed allies as an unrivalled strength. Trump seems to care little about the impact of his decisions on his allies. Deleting the US Saceur post would emphasise that interpretation and weaken Nato deterrence at a critical moment in its relations with Russia.

    What’s the history?

    Trump is not the first US president to make a foreign policy shift away from Europe. President Barack Obama announced a pivot to Asia in November 2011. This focus on China as a “pacing threat” offering major challenges to the US has persisted.

    It manifests itself under Trump as a transactional demand on European allies to contribute more to Nato so the US can release resources to focus on the Pacific, potentially redeploying personnel and capabilities there. Trump has never concealed his disdain for Nato, often wondering what its benefit for the US was. Much of this rhetoric may be for his domestic audience, but it negatively affects international perceptions of Nato’s power.

    The idea of a European Saceur has also been proposed before, including by former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger in 1984. That proposal was made at a low point of the cold war and Kissinger’s rationale was political. European military leadership would force European political leaders to acknowledge their responsibilities for Nato nuclear policy.

    Cavoli questioned by US senators.

    Political control of military force is, of course, important for any democratic state. Saceur reports to the North Atlantic Council (the NAC, Nato’s highest body) which comprises ambassadors from every member country. Its chair, the secretary-general, is always a European (or Canadian), and the deputy secretary-general is always an American.

    The highest level of military command authority, the ability to organise and employ commands and forces to accomplish assigned missions, is known in the US as Combatant Command (COCOM). Most Nato states retain the COCOM equivalent but delegate the next lower level of command; Operational Command (OPCOM) to Nato commanders.

    Issues at stake

    US domestic law requires COCOM to be exercised over US forces – but only by US officers. This authority cannot be delegated. An American Supreme Commander Europe exercises operational command over all forces assigned to Nato, but a European leader in the same role could exercise only a much more restrictive level of authority over assigned US forces. There is dispensation for an exception to this to meet an attack on Nato, but not for training exercises. Unity of command is challenging enough in multi-national operations, even after 75 years of training, so this is a major obstacle.

    Another issue is that the authority to release all US nuclear weapons is retained by the US president. Accordingly, every key post in the Nato nuclear operations chain is held by a US official. A Nato request for a nuclear strike is made to the US president through Saceur. It is not clear how this would work if Saceur were no longer American. This is one of the major potential obstacles ahead of any decision to move the command to a European.

    And here’s another. In a crisis, Nato would plan to deploy 30 army divisions (of 15,000 personnel each), 30 squadrons of fighter aircraft and 30 combat warships from across the alliance within 30 days. Any Supreme Commander Europe would have to command international forces numbering hundreds of thousands of personnel. There are very few (if any) European officers who could credibly claim to be suitably experienced to replace Cavoli. No British officer has commanded even one deployed division since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

    But by the summer if Cavoli is replaced by a European, Nato needs to have most of these thorny issues resolved, or at least come up with plans on how to do so, or create significant risks for European security. For now, this is not looking simple at all.

    Andrew Corbett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident submarine commander – https://theconversation.com/why-it-matters-for-european-security-if-an-american-no-longer-commands-nato-troops-by-a-former-trident-submarine-commander-254122

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The largest flood in Earth’s history burst through Gibraltar and Sicily and refilled the entire Mediterranean in just a few years

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel García-Castellanos, Earth scientist, Instituto de Geociencias de Barcelona (Geo3Bcn – CSIC)

    Refilled in just a few years – or months. Nasa / titoOnz / shutterstock

    A little over 5 million years ago, water from the Atlantic Ocean found a way through the present-day Strait of Gibraltar. According to this theory, oceanic water rushed faster than a speeding car down a kilometre-high slope towards the empty Mediterranean Sea, excavating a skyscraper-deep trough on its way.

    The Med was, at the time, a largely dry and salty basin, but so much water poured in that it filled up in just a couple of years – maybe even just a few months. At its peak, the flood discharged about 1,000 times the water of the modern-day Amazon river.

    At least, that’s the thesis one of us put forward in a 2009 study of an underwater canyon excavated along the Strait of Gibraltar, which he presumed to have been carved out by this massive flood. If correct, (and some scientists do dispute the theory), the so-called Zanclean megaflood would be the largest single flood recorded on Earth.

    But extraordinary claims like this require extraordinarily solid evidence. Our latest research investigates sedimentary rock from the Zanclean era that seems to record how the water surged through a gap between modern-day Sicily and mainland Africa to refill the eastern half of the Mediterranean.

    Sicily (the large island next to the ‘toe’ of Italy) still forms part of a divide between the Mediterranean’s darker basins, shaded in deeper blue.
    GEBCO / National Oceanographic Centre, UK, CC BY-NC-SA

    How scientists tracked down the megaflood

    Our finding is the latest twist in a story that began in the late 19th century. That’s when geologists studying salt-rich rock outcrops around the Mediterranean became increasingly aware that something unusual had happened between roughly 5 and 6 million years ago, well before the glaciations of recent ice ages: the sea had dried up. They named that age “Messinian” and the drying up eventually became known as the Messinian salinity crisis.

    In the 1970s, scientists for the first time drilled deep below the Mediterranean into sedimentary rocks from the Messinian age. They made three surprising discoveries. First, they found a massive layer of salt – kilometres thick – below much of the seafloor. This confirmed that a vast environmental change had happened about 6 million years ago, just when tectonic plates shifted and the sea became largely isolated from the Atlantic Ocean.

    Second, right above this salt layer, they found sediment with fossils from shallow, low-salt lakes. This suggested that the Mediterranean Sea dropped to more than a kilometre below today’s level, and as most of the water evaporated, salt was left behind. A series of lakes would have remained in the lowest parts of the basin, refreshed and kept relatively salt-free by streams. This interpretation was also supported by seismic surveys of the seabed which revealed rivers once cut through a dry landscape.

    And third, the rocky layers above the salt abruptly shifted back to more typical deep sea sediment. (We now know that less than 11% of Mediterranean marine species survived the crisis, showing just how big and lasting the impact was on life in the sea). The term Zanclean Flood was coined in the 1970s to refer to the end of the crisis, without scientists really knowing what it consisted of or the timescale taken to refill the dry Mediterranean basin.

    Events proposed to have occurred in the Mediterranean between 6 and 5.3 million years ago.

    A cataclysmic refill

    The next breakthrough came in 2009, when geophysical data for the planned Africa-Europe tunnel through Gibraltar suggested that a huge underwater trench between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea must have been created by a sudden and cataclysmic flood.

    Our latest research backs up this hypothesis. As part of a team led by Maltese seabed scientist Aaron Micallef, we explored the region where the flood water filling the western basin of the Mediterranean should have run into a ridge of higher land connecting modern-day Africa and Italy, known as the Sicily Sill. Was there any evidence, we wondered, of a second megaflood as the eastern Mediterranean filled up?

    Piecing together the puzzle

    Giovanni Barreca, one of our co-authors on the recent paper, grew up in southern Sicily. He long ago realised that the low hills near the coast are an extension of the Sicily Sill over which the megaflood must have progressed from west to east. The area, he thought, might contain clues.

    Our team visited this part of Sicily and noticed that the hills were indeed unusual. Their aligned and streamlined shapes separated by deeply eroded depressions are very similar to streamlined hills in Washington state in the US. Those Washington hills were carved out by a megaflood at the end of the last Ice Age when the vast Lake Missoula dammed up behind a glacier and emptied catastrophically.

    If those hills and depressions in Sicily were also shaped by a huge flood, then rock debris eroded from the base of the depressions should be found dumped on top of the hills, more than 5 million years later.

    Sure enough, we did find jumbled and contorted rock debris up to boulder size along the crest of the hills. They were the same types of rock found within the depressions as well as further inland.

    Remnants of a boulder dumped 5 million years ago on a hilltop near the town of Rosolini, Sicily.
    Paul Carling

    To double check our work, we developed a computer simulation (or “model”) of how flood waters might have crossed one part of the Sicily Sill. It showed that the flood flow would indeed mimic the direction of the streamlined hills.

    In fact, the model showed that the hills would have been carved out by water 40 metres or more deep, travelling at 115 kilometres per hour (71mph). In the one area we modelled, 13 million cubic metres of water per second would have flooded into the eastern Mediterranean basin (for reference: the Amazon today is about 200,000 cubic metres per second). Remarkably, this is still only a fraction of the water that first flowed through Gibraltar and then into the eastern Mediterranean basin near Sicily.

    Daniel García-Castellanos does research on public European and Spanish funding.

    Paul Carling does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The largest flood in Earth’s history burst through Gibraltar and Sicily and refilled the entire Mediterranean in just a few years – https://theconversation.com/the-largest-flood-in-earths-history-burst-through-gibraltar-and-sicily-and-refilled-the-entire-mediterranean-in-just-a-few-years-249242

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: White Lotus: ‘the show’s depiction of sibling sexual behaviour is incredibly harmful’ – expert opinion

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sophie King-Hill, Associate Professor at the Health Services Management Centre, University of Birmingham

    This article contains spoilers for season three of The White Lotus

    The White Lotus is a show where a lot of sex happens and many taboos are explored. For instance, in episode seven the impact on one character of watching his parents having sex as a child and how that affected his sexuality is talked about. Given all of this, it might seem like no big deal to feature an incest storyline, which this series did. But, as researchers of sibling sexual behaviour-abuse, we were particularly perturbed by the show’s take on this issue.

    In episode five, we see holidaying brothers Lochlan and Saxon Ratliff kiss after a night of partying with drugs and alcohol. This quickly escalates in the next episode where Saxon learns through flashbacks and conversations that Lochlan “jerked [him] off.”

    Child sexual abuse, harmful sexual behaviour among children and young people and intra-familial sexual abuse are not new topics. It’s only recently, however, that sibling sexual behaviour-abuse has garnered similar levels of attention.

    While this topic does come under the definition of intra-familial sexual abuse, conversations about this have tended to focus on intergenerational cases. For instance, parent or step-parent and child.

    However, sibling sexual behaviour-abuse is thought to be one of the most prolific forms of intrafamilial sexual abuse. Research estimates that it may be five times more prevalent than parent-child sexual abuse, yet is rarely spoken about due to the taboos that exist around children and sex – but also the shame that many families feel when experiencing this issue.

    Mainstream explorations on shows such as White Lotus could be incredibly helpful in spreading awareness about sibling sexual behaviour-abuse. As experts in sexual behaviours and sexual abuse, we believe the show’s handling of an incredibly complex and traumatic issue is insensitive and sensational. Far from spreading awareness, this storyline is simply shocking and inaccurate. We would argue that it actively harms the important research that is only just beginning in helping those who experience this sort of abuse and those who work with them.

    Take the way Saxon finds out. It’s the next morning. He had blacked out the night before and fragments of what happened are slowly coming back to him. He suspects something bad happened but confirmation is delivered in a matter-of-fact way by the two young women who were with him that night.

    Rather than expressing horror or concern, both young women are very calm about what happened, letting him know his brother “jerked him off”. They then laugh and are dismissive of Saxon’s horror. In this way, the abuse is normalised as one of them says: “Everyone has their thing – it’s fine.” This would seem to imply that sexual behaviour between siblings is a sexual preference rather than a traumatic situation that needs specific support and intervention.

    While Saxon and Lochlan express disgust when they remember what has happened, this is not portrayed in any great depth. Instead, it is framed in a way that is not too dissimilar to how someone may respond to a consensual sexual encounter they may regret after a night out – rather than a serious sexual experience with a sibling.

    In our research, we found a key reason why people don’t report instances is that the behaviour may sit within a context of family dysfunction, so it is difficult for those victims to recognise it. This is why early developmentally appropriate relationships and sex education is important.

    Serious family dysfunction is evident within the programme with the mother showing disconnection and the father exhibiting signs of depression, suicide ideation and fantasies of killing members of his family. The children also have unusual relationships with each other where boundaries of sexuality are blurred.

    In episode one, Saxon states: “Brother and sisters don’t sleep together when they have fully formed genitals.” Later, he calls his sister “pretty hot” and muses about her virginity. He also asks Lochlan, “What kind of porn do you like?” and says, “How am I going to jerk off with you in here all week?” before walking naked to the bathroom to masturbate.

    The deep shame that is strongly linked to families that experience such abuse is also was not explored in any depth. After the initial act and flashbacks the sibling sexual behaviour is not mentioned in any great depth again.

    The only real acknowledgement we get is in the final episode when Saxon rebuffs Lochlan’s wishes to spend time together. Noticing Saxon is not OK, Lochlan says: “All you care about is getting off and I saw you lying there and I thought you looked a little left out … and you know, I’m a pleaser. I just want to give everyone what they want and I’m in a family full of narcissists.”

    This complicated family dynamic is not explored and the abusive behaviour isn’t even properly condemned. “Dude, let’s just drop this forever, please,” Saxon simply retorts – and the series does, as the incident is swept away as a small sub-plot, and lost in rising tide of drama in the rest of the finale.

    TV shows can be incredibly powerful tools in spreading awareness and increasing public knowledge about how to spot, respond to and prevent issues such as sibling sexual behaviour-abuse. It could have explored the nature of the behaviour, the links to family factors and the interventions that are needed to support disclosures and recovery from this type of sexual abuse and behaviour-based family issue.

    The White Lotus, however, did not take this opportunity. Instead we are left guessing, as the Ratliffs sail back to their lives, how this complex and traumatic incident in the brothers’ lives came to pass and how it will affect them in the future.

    Looking for something good to watch? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Sophie King-Hill receives funding from ESRC.

    Kieran McCartan receives funding from the European Union (Horizon 2020) and the Bristol City Council.

    – ref. White Lotus: ‘the show’s depiction of sibling sexual behaviour is incredibly harmful’ – expert opinion – https://theconversation.com/white-lotus-the-shows-depiction-of-sibling-sexual-behaviour-is-incredibly-harmful-expert-opinion-253972

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident sub commander

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Corbett, Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies, King’s College London

    Gen Christopher Cavoli is due to come to the end of his term as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (Saceur) this summer. Since 1951, this post has been filled by American four-star officers, admirals or generals.

    But Cavoli might be the last American in the role, at least for a while. The Trump administration is considering relinquishing this important post as part of a cost-saving US Armed Forces command restructuring exercise and, potentially, as a step back from its leading role in European security since the 1950s. In parallel, the UK and German defence ministers have taken over chairing this week’s Ukraine Defence Contact Group, a gathering of defence ministers from 30 countries, which has previously been chaired by the US defense secretary.

    Cavoli said, during a hearing in the Senate this month, that it would be problematic if the US steps back from its leadership role in Nato. Previous heads of the Nato command have agreed. They’re not wrong. Removing the American Saceur position is not an internal matter like replacing senior officers serving in US posts who do not fit a particular political profile. It would have profound effects on Nato’s military capability and immediately significant and tangible repercussions for alliance deterrence strategy.

    An enemy’s perception of the military capability of Nato forces is a fundamental element of its deterrence strategy. Replacing a US Supreme Commander with a European would inject significant uncertainty into perceptions of US commitment to Nato and could critically undermine that perception of coherent military strength. It would be made to work, but Nato’s deterrence posture would be less convincing, and this is especially important given European concerns about Russian aggression in the region.

    It is not clear yet how the Trump administration’s view of Nato will evolve. Public statements advocating support for Nato contradict private views expressed by his cabinet in the notorious Signal-gate chat. Previous US president, Joe Biden, viewed allies as an unrivalled strength. Trump seems to care little about the impact of his decisions on his allies. Deleting the US Saceur post would emphasise that interpretation and weaken Nato deterrence at a critical moment in its relations with Russia.

    What’s the history?

    Trump is not the first US president to make a foreign policy shift away from Europe. President Barack Obama announced a pivot to Asia in November 2011. This focus on China as a “pacing threat” offering major challenges to the US has persisted.

    It manifests itself under Trump as a transactional demand on European allies to contribute more to Nato so the US can release resources to focus on the Pacific, potentially redeploying personnel and capabilities there. Trump has never concealed his disdain for Nato, often wondering what its benefit for the US was. Much of this rhetoric may be for his domestic audience, but it negatively affects international perceptions of Nato’s power.

    The idea of a European Saceur has also been proposed before, including by former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger in 1984. That proposal was made at a low point of the cold war and Kissinger’s rationale was political. European military leadership would force European political leaders to acknowledge their responsibilities for Nato nuclear policy.

    Cavoli questioned by US senators.

    Political control of military force is, of course, important for any democratic state. Saceur reports to the North Atlantic Council (the NAC, Nato’s highest body) which comprises ambassadors from every member country. Its chair, the secretary-general, is always a European (or Canadian), and the deputy secretary-general is always an American.

    The highest level of military command authority, the ability to organise and employ commands and forces to accomplish assigned missions, is known in the US as Combatant Command (COCOM). Most Nato states retain the COCOM equivalent but delegate the next lower level of command; Operational Command (OPCOM) to Nato commanders.

    Issues at stake

    US domestic law requires COCOM to be exercised over US forces – but only by US officers. This authority cannot be delegated. An American Supreme Commander Europe exercises operational command over all forces assigned to Nato, but a European leader in the same role could exercise only a much more restrictive level of authority over assigned US forces. There is dispensation for an exception to this to meet an attack on Nato, but not for training exercises. Unity of command is challenging enough in multi-national operations, even after 75 years of training, so this is a major obstacle.

    Another issue is that the authority to release all US nuclear weapons is retained by the US president. Accordingly, every key post in the Nato nuclear operations chain is held by a US official. A Nato request for a nuclear strike is made to the US president through Saceur. It is not clear how this would work if Saceur were no longer American. This is one of the major potential obstacles ahead of any decision to move the command to a European.

    And here’s another. In a crisis, Nato would plan to deploy 30 army divisions (of 15,000 personnel each), 30 squadrons of fighter aircraft and 30 combat warships from across the alliance within 30 days. Any Supreme Commander Europe would have to command international forces numbering hundreds of thousands of personnel. There are very few (if any) European officers who could credibly claim to be suitably experienced to replace Cavoli. No British officer has commanded even one deployed division since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

    But by the summer if Cavoli is replaced by a European, Nato needs to have most of these thorny issues resolved, or at least come up with plans on how to do so, or create significant risks for European security. For now, this is not looking simple at all.

    Andrew Corbett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident sub commander – https://theconversation.com/why-it-matters-for-european-security-if-an-american-no-longer-commands-nato-troops-by-a-former-trident-sub-commander-254122

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From brain Bluetooth to ‘full RoboCop’: where chip implants will be heading soon

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amin Al-Habaibeh, Professor of Intelligent Engineering Systems, Nottingham Trent University

    In the 1987 classic film RoboCop, the deceased Detroit cop Alex Murphy is reborn as a cyborg. He has a robotic body and a full brain-computer interface that allows him to control his movements with his mind. He can access online information such as suspects’ faces, uses artificial intelligence (AI) to help detect threats, and his human memories have been integrated with those from a machine.

    It is remarkable to think that the movie’s key mechanical robotic technologies have almost now been accomplished by the likes of Boston Dynamics’ running, jumping Atlas and Kawasaki’s new four-legged Corleo. Similarly we are seeing robotic exoskeletons that enable paralysed patients to do things like walking and climbing stairs by responding to their gestures.

    Developers have lagged behind when it comes to building an interface in which the brain’s electrical pulses can communicate with an external device. This too is changing, however.

    In the latest breakthrough, a research team based at the University of California has unveiled a brain implant that enabled a woman with paralysis to livestream her thoughts via AI into a synthetic voice with just a three-second delay.

    The interface fr-OG.
    Zmrzlnr

    The concept of an interface between neurons and machines goes back much further than RoboCop. In the 18th century, an Italian physician named Luigi Galvani discovered that when electricity is passed through certain nerves in a frog’s leg, it would twitch. This paved the way for the whole study of electrophysiology, which looks at how electrical signals affect organisms.

    The initial modern research on brain-computer interfaces started in the late 1960s, with the American neuroscientist Eberhard Fetz hooking up monkeys’ brains to electrodes and showing that they could move a meter needle. Yet if this demonstrated some exciting potential, the human brain proved too complex for this field to advance quickly.

    The brain is continually thinking, learning, memorising, recognising patterns and decoding sensory signals – not to mention coordinating and moving our bodies. It runs on about 86 billion neurons with trillions of connections which process, adapt and evolve continuously in what is called neuroplasticity. In other words, there’s a great deal to figure out.

    A tough nut to crack.
    Jolygon

    Much of the recent progress has been based on advances in our ability to map the brain, identifying the various regions and their activities. A range of technologies can produce insightful images of the brain (including functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and positron emission tomography (PET)), while others monitor certain kinds of activity (including electroencephalography (EEG) and the more invasive electrocortigraphy (ECoG)).

    These techniques have helped researchers to build some incredible devices, including wheelchairs and prosthetics that can be controlled by the mind.

    But whereas these are typically controlled with an external interface like an EEG headset, chip implants are very much the new frontier. They have been enabled by advances in AI chips and micro electrodes, as well as the deep learning neural networks that power today’s AI technology. This allows for faster data analysis and pattern recognition, which together with the more precise brain signals that can be acquired using implants, have made it possible to create applications that run virtually in real time.

    For instance, the new University of California implant relies on ECoG, a technique developed in the early 2000s that captures patterns directly from a thin sheet of electrodes placed directly on the cortical surface of someone’s brain.

    In their case, the complex patterns picked up by the implant of 253 high-density electrodes are processed using deep learning to produce a matrix of data from which it’s possible to decode whatever words the user is thinking. This improves on previous models that could only create synthetic speech after the user had finished a sentence.

    Elon Musk’s Neuralink has been able to get patients to control a computer cursor using similar techniques. However, it’s also worth emphasising that deep learning neural networks are enabling more sophisticated devices that rely on other forms of brain monitoring.

    Our research team at Nottingham Trent University has developed an affordable brainwave reader using off-the-shelf parts that enables patients who are suffering from conditions like completely locked-in syndrome (CLIS) or motor neurone disease (MND) to be able to answer “yes” or “no” to questions. There’s also the potential to control a computer mouse using the same technology.

    The future

    The progress in AI, chip fabrication and biomedical tech that enabled these developments is expected to continue in the coming years, which should mean that brain-computer interfaces keep improving.

    In the next ten years, we can expect more technologies that provide disabled people with independence by helping them to move and communicate more easily. This entails improved versions of the technologies that are already emerging, including exoskeletons, mind-controlled prosthetics and implants that move from controlling cursors to fully controlling computers or other machines. In all cases, it will be a question of balancing our increasing ability to interpret high-quality brain data with invasiveness, safety and costs.

    It is still more in the medium to long term that I would expect to see many of the capabilities of a RoboCop, including planted memories and built-in trained skills supported with internet connectivity. We can also expect to see high-speed communication between people via “brain Bluetooth”.

    It should be similarly possible to create a Six Million Dollar Man, with enhanced vision, hearing and strength, by implanting the right sensors and linking the right components to convert neuron signals into action (actuators). No doubt applications will also emerge as our understanding of brain functionality increases that haven’t been thought of yet.

    Clearly, it will soon become impossible to keep deferring ethical considerations. Could our brains be hacked, and memories be planted or deleted? Could our emotions be controlled? Will the day come where we need to update our brain software and press restart?

    With every step forward, questions like these become ever more pressing. The major technological obstacles have essentially been cleared out of the way. It’s time to start thinking about to what extent we want to integrate these technologies into society, the sooner the better.

    Amin Al-Habaibeh receives funding Innovate UK, The British Council, The Royal academy of Engineering, EPSRC, AHRC, and the European Commission.

    – ref. From brain Bluetooth to ‘full RoboCop’: where chip implants will be heading soon – https://theconversation.com/from-brain-bluetooth-to-full-robocop-where-chip-implants-will-be-heading-soon-254376

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: To eradicate polio once and for all, we need a new vaccine – that’s what we’re working on

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lee Sherry, Postdoctoral Research Associate, School of Infection and Immunity, University of Glasgow

    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    Aside from recent outbreaks of polio in war-torn regions of the world, the deadly virus is close to being eradicated, thanks to vaccines.

    All vaccines work by training our immune systems to recognise a harmless piece of a virus or bacteria so that when the real thing is encountered later, the immune system is prepared to defeat it.

    There are two types of polio vaccine in use. One is the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), and the other the live-attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV).

    The IPV is made by “killing” large quantities of poliovirus with a chemical called formalin, making it unable to replicate. The immune system is then “trained” to recognise the poliovirus – which is thankfully rendered safe by formalin.

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    The OPV vaccine contains a weakened (or “attenuated”) version of the virus. These changes in the virus’s genetic code stop it from causing disease. However, as the OPV vaccine is still capable of replicating, it can revert to a form that can cause disease, with the potential to cause paralysis in unvaccinated people.

    Because of these risks, scientists are now looking for safer ways to create vaccines – methods that don’t require growing large amounts of the live virus in high-security labs, as is done for IPV.

    Our research team has taken an important step towards producing a safer and more affordable polio vaccine. This new vaccine candidate uses virus-like particles (VLPs). These particles mimic the outer protein shell of poliovirus, but are empty inside. This means there is no risk of infection, but the VLP is still recognised by the immune system, which then protects against the disease.

    This vaccine candidate uses technology that’s already being used in hepatitis B and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. Thanks to VLPs, since 2008, there have been no cervical cancer cases in women in Scotland who were fully vaccinated against HPV. Over the past ten years, our research group has worked to apply this successful technology in the fight to eradicate polio.

    Vaccine success

    Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, polio was a major global childhood health concern. However, the development of IPV (licensed in 1955) and of OPV (licensed in 1963), almost eliminated polio-derived paralysis. Due to the success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, introduced in 1988, most cases of paralytic polio are now caused by the vaccine.

    Despite the success of these vaccines, they both have safety concerns that could threaten to compromise eradication of the disease.

    IPV, for instance, is expensive to make because it needs stringent safety measures to prevent the accidental release of live poliovirus and so is mostly used in wealthy countries. OPV is five times cheaper than IPV, and due to its lower cost and ease of use, it is used almost exclusively in developing countries.

    OPV has been instrumental in the near eradication of “wild polioviruses” (the naturally occurring form) around the world. But in areas where vaccination rates are low and enough people are susceptible to infection, the weakened virus (OPV) can replicate.

    Unfortunately, each round of replication increases the potential for the virus to revert to a form of polio that causes illness and paralysis. This is already evident in new vaccine-derived outbreaks across several countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, which now accounts for most paralytic polio cases worldwide. So, once all remaining strains of wild poliovirus have been successfully eradicated, OPV use will have to stop.

    Safer vaccine

    The next generation of polio vaccinations is likely to be produced in yeast or insect cells. Our research shows that VLPs produced in both yeast and insect cells can perform equally or better than the current IPV.

    These non-infectious VLPs are also easier to produce than IPVs. They would not need to be handled under such stringent laboratory conditions as IPVs, and they are more temperature stable, thanks to genetic alteration of the outer shell. The new vaccines, then, will be less expensive to produce than IPVs, helping to improve fair and equal access to vaccination – ensuring that once polio is eradicated, it will stay eradicated.

    As we move closer to wiping out polio worldwide, these next-generation vaccines could be the final tool we need – safe, affordable and accessible to all.

    Lee Sherry worked as a post-doc on a WHO-funded research grant for the production of poliovirus virus-like particles

    Nicola Stonehouse is a member of the WHO VLP vaccine Consortium and receives funding from The World Health Organisation – Generation of virus-free polio vaccine.

    – ref. To eradicate polio once and for all, we need a new vaccine – that’s what we’re working on – https://theconversation.com/to-eradicate-polio-once-and-for-all-we-need-a-new-vaccine-thats-what-were-working-on-252086

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Good Night, and Good Luck: why AP’s battle for press freedom echoes the theme of George Clooney’s new play

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Colleen Murrell, Chair of the Editorial Board, and Full Professor in Journalism, Dublin City University

    George Clooney’s role as a veteran TV reporter in the play Good Night, and Good Luck has received general acclaim after the play opened on Broadway last week. A New York Times review proclaimed that it “makes Edward Murrow a saint of sane journalism for a world that still needs one”.

    This theatre production is an adaptation of Clooney and Grant Heslov’s 2005 film of the same name, and it takes the audience back to the 1950s when CBS News journalist Edward Murrow took on populist and high-profile senator, Joseph McCarthy.

    McCarthy had become an influential and feared figure after holding a series of public hearings where people were charged, often on very little evidence, of being communists and infiltrating government departments.

    Many people lost their jobs, and journalists and academics were often targeted. Murrow’s programmes showcased spurious cases of overreach, which earned him McCarthy’s wrath. This courageous TV journalism exposed McCarthy’s methods and helped bring about the senator’s eventual downfall.

    It is impossible not to see the parallels with the current parlous state of press freedom in the US. A week before the play opened, Clooney was interviewed on CBS News and said: “When the other three estates fail, when the judiciary and the executive and the legislative branches fail us, the fourth estate has to succeed.”

    And this feels highly significant as earlier this week a federal judge issued an injunction against a decision by Donald Trump’s government which effectively restricted a news organisation’s ability to operate. Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee, said that a news organisation (Associated Press) could not be punished for its editorial decisions.

    He declared: “Under the First Amendment, if the Government opens its doors to some journalists – be it the Oval Office, the East Room or elsewhere – it cannot then shut those doors to other journalists because of their viewpoints.” However, the government has already announced it is appealing McFadden’s ruling.

    Ed Murrow’s famous newscast on Joseph McCarthy.

    AP has been barred from the Oval Office and the presidential aircraft Air Force One since February 11, after it said it would continue to use the geographical locator the “Gulf of Mexico” rather than accede to Trump’s executive order that it be renamed the “Gulf of America”. But this was always about more than the Gulf of Mexico, it was about the right for media organisations to choose their own words and content.

    AP then attempted to overturn the exclusion order through an injunction. McFadden initially held off granting this injunction, and a further hearing on March 27 resulted in lengthy testimony from AP staff about the financial and editorial costs caused by its lack of access to the White House.

    Some newspaper coverage is hailing the granting of this injunction as a major victory for media freedom, with the Guardian, in words that echo Edward Murrow, proposing that “standing up for one’s principles may not be just a gesture made in vain”.

    And yet this remains just a temporary injunction and the full court case in which AP is suing three senior members of the White House: press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, chief of staff Susie Wiles and deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich has yet to play out.

    Judge McFadden even sounded a note of caution regarding his ruling: “It does not bestow special treatment upon the AP. Indeed the AP is not necessarily entitled to the ‘first in line every time’ permanent press pool access it enjoyed under the White House Correspondents’ Association. But it cannot be treated worse than its peer wire services either.”

    Rising challenge for journalism

    Pressures on journalists have definitely ramped up in the past few months. During the hearing on March 27, AP’s White House correspondent Zeke Miller claimed that he had noticed a new “softening of tone and tenor” of the questions posed to the president and was surprised by the increase in off-topic questions at the expense of topical “news of the day” questions.

    George Clooney at the launch of the new Broadway play Good Night, and Good Luck.

    There certainly appears to be an increased number of what Australians call “Dorothy Dixer” questions, where friendly politicians or journalists ask soft questions of the government or questions designed to distract from the difficult news of the day.

    And it is clear that journalists who are considered friendly are getting priority treatment. When Brian Glenn, chief White House correspondent for the cable network Real America’s Voice, was chosen to ask a question of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in the now-infamous White House conference on February 28, he served up a question about why the Ukrainian leader was not wearing a suit.

    A query that just happened to be very helpful to the tone that Trump wanted to create in that meeting. A seasoned AP journalist would never have asked such a bizarre and unnecessary question.

    Questions about press freedom will be tackled next at a forum organised by the Columbia Journalism School and the New York Times later this month. The forum, The Fight for Global Press Freedom, proposes that “press freedom stands at a historic crossroads”.

    Holding this forum shows courage in the wake of Columbia University potentially losing federal funding to the tune of US$400 million dollars (£305 milllion). Federal government administrators claim this was in response to pro-Palestinian protests and “the school’s failure to protect Jewish students from discrimination”. Negotiations between the university and funders are ongoing.

    As the world’s trade negotiators, university administrators and journalists decide whether or not to hold the line and stand up to a bullying president, perhaps the words of Edward Murrow might hold the key. In 1954 McCarthy attacked Murrow, accusing him incorrectly of communist sympathies.

    In his reply, Murrow argued that in so doing McCarthy had “proved again that anyone who exposes him, anyone who does not share his historical disregard for decency and human dignity and the rights guaranteed by the constitution must be either a communist or a fellow traveller”.

    AP’s fight back against its White House ban and its consequent chilling effect on media freedom could be the start of a new era of standing up to Trump, and damn the consequences. Let’s hope it’s not just the dying refrain of a once powerful not-for-profit legacy media organisation.

    Colleen Murrell received funding from Irish regulator Coimisiún na Meán (2021-4) for research for the annual Reuters Digital News Report Ireland.

    – ref. Good Night, and Good Luck: why AP’s battle for press freedom echoes the theme of George Clooney’s new play – https://theconversation.com/good-night-and-good-luck-why-aps-battle-for-press-freedom-echoes-the-theme-of-george-clooneys-new-play-254136

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Jitters in the US bond market look like the main reason Trump hit pause on higher tariffs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Dryden, PhD Student in Economics, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London

    Bond markets don’t often make front-page news but the recent sharp sell-off in US Treasuries appears to have been enough to prompt US president Donald Trump to pause his plans for new tariffs.

    Traditionally, US Treasuries are seen as one of the world’s safest assets for investors. The United States government has long been regarded as a reliable and responsible borrower. That reputation has allowed the US to borrow at low costs for decades.

    But the turbulence triggered by Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement caused wild swings in the US government’s borrowing costs. While some form of trade restrictions were anticipated, the scale and scope of the measures surprised markets and rattled bond investors.

    The yield on the 30-year US Treasury, which moves inversely to the bond’s price, rose 60 basis points, to above 5%, following the tariff announcement. Rising yields for governments effectively mean they pay more interest on their debt. For the US, this was one of the largest moves within a single week since 1981, when the Federal Reserve (the Fed) implemented sharp interest rate hikes to combat inflation.

    The volatility of bond markets and nervousness among investors seems to have been the catalyst for encouraging Trump to pause the higher tariffs for 90 days. Trump himself remarked that bond markets had become “a little bit yippy”.

    So what exactly spooked them? Several forces seem to have combined to drive this sudden shift in sentiment.

    First, bond prices are highly sensitive to inflation expectations. The introduction of broad-based tariffs was widely seen as inflationary. Both the tariffs and the threat of retaliatory measures from trading partners risked pushing up prices on everything from groceries to electronics.

    The possibility of rising inflation pushed bond prices down, because inflation makes the fixed-interest payments from bonds less valuable over time.

    Second, like any financial asset, bond prices are sensitive to investor demand. There are growing concerns that US Treasuries could face a “buyers’ strike” – a scenario where escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty make investors wary of holding American debt.

    Instead, many are turning to politically neutral safe havens like gold and other precious metals. There are also signs that foreign buyers, particularly from Asia and the Middle East, are pulling back from US debt, a shift that could further weaken demand and raise government borrowing costs even more.

    Finally, the actions (or perhaps more accurately, the inaction) of the Fed also helped to drag bond prices lower. During previous bouts of extreme market volatility, like in March 2020 at the onset of COVID lockdowns in the US, the Fed stepped in with a raft of measures designed to calm markets.

    But this time, with inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target, its options were far more limited. Any attempt to support bond markets risked fuelling inflation. The Fed’s silence this time around offered little reassurance to bond investors, who have come to expect soothing interventions during times of stress.

    The nerves are here to stay

    Bond market volatility is unlikely to be a one-off event. Instead, it may be a sign of deeper, more persistent worry among investors over the US fiscal outlook.

    For years, the US has been able to borrow cheaply, even as its national debt climbed, because investors saw Treasuries as safe, reliable and backed by a strong and stable economy. Demand was so steady that interest rates stayed low, allowing the government to finance large deficits without much fuss.

    But erratic policy and large fiscal giveaways such as unfunded tax cuts and politically motivated spending increases like massive increases to military spending, mean that confidence is starting to fray. US federal debt currently stands at 100% of GDP and experts expect that figure to rise to 118% over the next decade. This is greater than at any point in the nation’s history.

    What’s more, these forecasts do not yet reflect the budget framework passed by the Senate in early April, which aims at extending and expanding tax cuts introduced in 2017. Senate estimates suggest that these measures will cost an additional US$1.5 trillion (£1.15 trillion) over the next decade.

    However, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), projects that the plan could increase the national debt by US$5.8 trillion over the same period.

    Rapidly rising debt levels, combined with higher borrowing costs, are placing increasing pressure on the government’s budget. According to CRFB figures, interest payments have nearly tripled since 2020, rising from US$345 billion to US$949 billion in the 2024 fiscal year.

    It’s this kind of fiscal strain, and the bond market’s reaction to it, that is widely believed to have made Trump jittery enough to pause the latest round of tariffs.

    Debt servicing costs now absorb around 14% of the federal budget, making it the second-largest expense after social security payments. These costs exceed national defence and Medicaid spending.

    The US has long benefited from being able to borrow at a low interest rate, thanks to strong demand for its bonds. However, growing economic uncertainty and a worsening fiscal position mean that bond markets are likely to be more volatile and less forgiving going forward than they have been in the past.

    If Trump remains wedded to tariffs as a key policy tool, this episode has given a clear sense of how bond markets might respond. The pursuit of policies that unsettle inflation expectations or deepen fiscal concerns will likely come at a high price for reckless governments.

    Alex Dryden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Jitters in the US bond market look like the main reason Trump hit pause on higher tariffs – https://theconversation.com/jitters-in-the-us-bond-market-look-like-the-main-reason-trump-hit-pause-on-higher-tariffs-254410

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Brains of people with schizophrenia may age faster – how our research adds to the evidence

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alexander F Santillo, Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Consultant Psychiatrist, Lund University

    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    What causes schizophrenia? This severe mental illness, which affects over 20 million people worldwide and is characterised by recurrent hallucinations and delusions, often begins to emerge in the period from adolescence to early adulthood. It’s a complex disorder that affects almost every area of life.

    Current theories about why schizophrenia develops suggest it may be linked to changes in brain development during this critical period of emerging adulthood. Schizophrenia is also thought to be similar to conditions such as dyslexia, autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), which are neurodevelopmental but usually manifest in childhood.

    However, our research suggests that accelerated brain ageing could be another potential driver in the development of schizophrenia – and this can be measured using a simple blood test.

    Our study is unique because we measured proteins in blood derived directly from brain neurons – the brain’s nerve cells – in people suffering from schizophrenia. This protein, called neurofilament light protein (NfL), consists of long, thread-like structures that help maintain the size and shape of nerve cells.

    NfL is released into the blood and cerebrospinal fluid when brain neurons are damaged or undergo neurodegeneration. Its release when these cells are damaged makes it a useful biomarker for diagnosing and monitoring neurodegenerative diseases and neurological damage. Measuring the levels of NfL can also provide insight into the extent of neuronal injury.

    Get your news from actual experts, direct to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences. Join The Conversation for free today.

    Neuronal injury is damage or harm to neurons, the specialised cells in the nervous system essential for communication in the brain, spinal cord and peripheral nervous system. When neurons are injured, their ability to function properly is impaired, which can result in a range of neurological symptoms depending on the severity and location of the damage.

    Raised levels of NfL have been associated with a range of neurological conditions including Alzheimer’s disease, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease and frontotemporal dementia. But NfL levels also normally increase with age as these proteins lose the ability to repair themselves as effectively. This is due to a combination of factors including gradual wear-and-tear on neurons over time.

    While reductions in the brain’s grey matter, white matter and connectivity are all part of normal, healthy ageing, these changes are usually gradual and not disabling. Grey matter contains most of the brain’s neurons and is responsible for processing information, memory, decision-making, muscle control, and seeing and hearing. White matter is the long fibres that connect different brain regions, allowing them to communicate quickly and efficiently.

    Noticeable symptoms of normal, healthy brain ageing might include a bit more forgetfulness, slower reaction time, and difficulty juggling multiple tasks. Such changes are very different from the patterns seen in illnesses like schizophrenia where, our study shows, the decline is faster and more severe, indicating an older brain age than would be expected from the patient’s chronological age.

    Our research found that, in people with schizophrenia, NfL levels appeared to increase more quickly with age, compared with the rate of increase in healthy people, indicating an acceleration of the brain ageing process.

    We also studied samples from people suffering from bipolar disorder, which did not show the same accelerated increase. Data from other methods, such as calculating “brain age” from MRI scans, also points to accelerated brain ageing in people with schizophrenia.

    Lifestyle factors

    For people suffering from schizophrenia, accelerated ageing of the body is already a serious problem, as Christos Pantelis, a Melbourne psychiatrist and senior author of our study, explains:

    An important problem is that people with chronic schizophrenia are often exposed to an unhealthy lifestyle overall. They can experience isolation, unemployment, lack of physical activities, smoking – and many resort to illicit drug use that can make their condition worse.

    Currently, people diagnosed with schizophrenia have a life expectancy 20-30 years shorter than the average. This is mainly due to earlier development of common age-related diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease. Around half of people with schizophrenia have at least one other chronic medical condition, such as obesity, respiratory conditions, chronic pain and substance-use disorders.

    People with schizophrenia have a higher risk of substance-use disorders due to a combination of biological, psychological and environmental factors. These include self-medication for distressing symptoms, impaired cognitive function, social isolation, and difficulties with treatment adherence.

    While lifestyle is a factor in the accelerated ageing of the body for those living with schizophrenia, our study could prove another important step in understanding – and in time, treating – this distressing disease.

    Alexander F Santillo primarily receives funding from the Swedish federal government under the ALF agreement.

    Cassandra Wannan receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

    Dhamidhu Eratne receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

    – ref. Brains of people with schizophrenia may age faster – how our research adds to the evidence – https://theconversation.com/brains-of-people-with-schizophrenia-may-age-faster-how-our-research-adds-to-the-evidence-239979

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Being married linked to increased risk of dementia – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Avinash Chandra, Postdoctoral Researcher, Neurology, Queen Mary University of London

    Would you believe me if I told you that staying single or ending your marriage could lower your odds of getting dementia? A new study led by researchers at Florida State University somewhat shockingly suggests that unmarried people are less likely to develop dementia.

    If you think you’ve heard the opposite, you are correct. A 2019 study from America found that unmarried people had “significantly higher odds of developing dementia over the study period than their married counterparts”.

    Indeed, married people are generally thought to have better health. Studies have shown that they are at reduced risk of having heart disease and stroke and they tend to live longer. So why did the new study come up with this surprising finding? Let’s take a closer look.

    The researchers analysed data from more than 24,000 Americans without dementia at the start of the study. Participants were tracked for up to 18 years. Crucially, the team compared dementia rates across marital groups: married, divorced, widowed and never-married.

    At first, it looked as though all three unmarried groups had a reduced risk of dementia compared with the married group. But, after accounting for other factors that could influence the results such as smoking and depression, only divorced and never-married people had a lower risk of dementia.

    Differences were also seen depending on the type of dementia. For example, being unmarried was consistently linked with a lower risk of Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia. But it was not shown for vascular dementia – a rarer form of the condition.

    The researchers also found that divorced or never-married people were less likely to progress from mild cognitive impairment to dementia and that people who became widowed during the study had a lower risk of dementia.

    Possible explanations

    One reason for the unexpected results? Married people might be diagnosed earlier because they have spouses who notice memory problems and push for a doctor’s visit. This could make dementia look more common in married people – even if it’s not.

    This is called ascertainment bias — when data is skewed because of who gets diagnosed or noticed more easily. However, the evidence of this was not strong. All participants had annual visits from a doctor, who could be thought of as a proxy partner who would spot early signs of dementia in the participant.

    Perhaps it was the case that the sample of people used, from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center (NACC) study, was not representative of the wider population. Specifically, the sample showed low levels of ethnic and income diversity. Also, nearly 64% of the participants were married. This may affect how these unexpected findings translate to the wider world. They could just have been unique to NACC participants.

    However, it is more likely that these findings highlight just how complex the effects of marital disruptions, transitions and choices on brain health really are. Being married is by no means an established protective factor for dementia, with an earlier meta-analysis (a study of studies) showing mixed results.

    The new study from Florida State University uses one of the biggest samples to date to examine this issue, and carries a good deal of weight. It highlights that assumptions based on previous research that widowhood and divorce are very stressful life events that can trigger Alzheimer’s disease or that unmarried people are socially isolated and therefore may be at higher risk of dementia, may not always be correct.

    Relationship dynamics are by no means straightforward. As mentioned in the paper, such dynamics may “provide a more nuanced understanding than a simple binary effect”. Factors such as marriage quality, levels of satisfaction after divorce, cultural considerations, or the sociability of single people compared with coupled ones may help explain these seemingly contradictory results.

    This study challenges the idea that marriage is automatically good for brain health. Instead, it suggests the effect of relationships on dementia is far more complex. What matters might not be your relationship status but how supported, connected and fulfilled you feel.

    Avinash Chandra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Being married linked to increased risk of dementia – new study – https://theconversation.com/being-married-linked-to-increased-risk-of-dementia-new-study-253875

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is a ‘revisionist’ state, and what are they trying to revise?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Andrew Latham, Professor of Political Science, Macalester College

    A meeting of top diplomats from China, Iran and Russia – three so-called revisionist powers. Photo by Getty Images

    Once upon a time, “revisionist power” was a term reserved for nations trying to overturn the postwar liberal order – the usual suspects being countries like Russia, China or Iran.

    But lately, that concept is starting to fray. When Beijing’s top diplomat says the United States is the one disrupting global stability, and respected analysts argue that Washington itself is acting like a revisionist state, the label suddenly looks a lot less tidy.

    And yet the term is everywhere – in think tank reports, in political speeches, in headlines about political hot spots.

    But what does revisionist really mean? And why should we care?

    The roots of ‘revisionism’

    At its core, “revisionist power” is a label applied to nations that want to change the way the world is ordered. The concept dates back to the period between the two world wars, when it described countries opposing the Treaty of Versailles that ended World War I. Political scientist Hans Morgenthau later distinguished between status quo powers and those seeking to overturn the balance of power.

    The label itself was popularized in the mid-20th century, especially through A.F.K. Organski’s 1958 work on power transition, which defined revisionist powers as those dissatisfied with the existing order and determined to reshape it.

    The change desired by nations can take many forms: redrawing borders, rebalancing regional power balances or creating alternative rules, norms and institutions to the ones that currently structure international politics. The key is that revisionists nations aren’t just unhappy with specific policies – they’re dissatisfied with the broader system and want to reshape it in fundamental ways.

    The concept comes out of the realist tradition in international relations, which sees the world as an arena of power politics.

    In that framework, countries operate in an anarchic international system with no higher authority to enforce the rules. The most powerful nations construct or impose a particular set of rules, norms and institutions on the international system, creating an order that reflects their values and serves their interests.

    Revisionism in action

    In this tradition, status quo powers benefit from the system and want to keep it more or less as it is. But revisionist powers see the system as constraining or unjust – and seek to alter it.

    This doesn’t always mean war or open confrontation. Revisionism isn’t inherently aggressive, nor is it always destabilizing. It simply describes a nation’s support for or opposition to the prevailing international order. How that desire is expressed can include diplomacy, economic coercion or even armed conflict.

    Consider Russia. Its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 were not just violations of international law – they were clear efforts to overturn the post-Cold War, NATO-based security order in Europe. Russia was not lashing out at individual policies; it was challenging – or seeking to revise – the legitimacy of the existing system.

    China presents a different kind of case. Beijing has made use of existing international institutions and benefited enormously from global trade, but it’s also been building alternatives, including regional banks, trade blocs and digital infrastructure designed to reduce dependence on Western systems. China’s expanding presence in the South China Sea, its pressure on Taiwan and its desire to shape global norms on everything from human rights to internet governance point to a broader effort to revise the current order – though more gradually than Russia’s approach.

    Iran, meanwhile, operates mostly at the regional level. Through its support for proxy groups like Hezbollah, its influence in Iraq and Yemen, and its confrontational stance toward Israel and the Gulf monarchies, Iran has long sought to reshape the Middle East’s power dynamics. It’s not trying to rewrite the entire international system, but it’s certainly revisionist in the region.

    A loaded term

    Of course, calling a nation “revisionist” is not a neutral act. It reflects a judgment about whose vision of world order is legitimate and whose is not. A rising power might see itself as correcting historical imbalances, not disrupting stability. The term can be useful, but it can also obscure as much as it reveals.

    Still, the label captures something real – though maybe not as cleanly as it used to. Much of today’s geopolitical tension does hinge on a basic divide: Some nations want to preserve the existing order, and others want to reshape it. But it’s no longer obvious who belongs in which camp.

    Now, when the U.S. sidelines institutions it once championed, imposes extraterritorial sanctions or pushes for new tech and trade regimes that bypass rivals, it starts to blur the line between defender and challenger of the status quo.

    Maybe the more useful question now isn’t just which great power is revisionist – but whether any of them are still committed to the post-World War II international order created in the U.S.’s image.

    This article is part of a series explaining foreign policy terms commonly used, but rarely explained.

    Andrew Latham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is a ‘revisionist’ state, and what are they trying to revise? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-revisionist-state-and-what-are-they-trying-to-revise-252966

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: China’s new underwater tool cuts deep, exposing vulnerability of vital network of subsea cables

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By John Calabrese, Assistant Professor, School of Public Affairs and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute, American University

    Laying an undersea fiber-optic cable at Arrietara beach near the Spanish village of Sopelana. Ander Gillenea/AFP via Getty Images

    Chinese researchers have unveiled a new deep-sea tool capable of cutting through the world’s most secure subsea cables − and it has many in the West feeling a little jittery.

    The development, first revealed in February 2025 in the Chinese-language journal Mechanical Engineering, was touted as a tool for civilian salvage and seabed mining. But the ability to sever communications lines 13,000 feet (4,000 meters) below the sea’s surface − far beyond the operational range of most existing infrastructure − means that the tool can be used for other purposes with far-reaching implications for global communications and security.

    That is because undersea cables sustain the world’s international internet traffic, financial transactions and diplomatic exchanges. Recent incidents of cable damage near Taiwan and in northern Europe have already raised concerns of these systems’ vulnerabilities − and suspicions about the role of state-linked actors.

    The growing sophistication and openness of underwater technology evidenced by the latest news from China suggest that undersea infrastructure may play a larger role in future strategic competition. Indeed, this development adds a new layer to the broader challenge of securing critical infrastructure amid expanding technological reach and the rise of so called “gray zone” tactics – antagonisms that take place between direct war and peace.

    The backbone of global communication

    Despite their unassuming appearance, undersea cables form the backbone of modern communication systems. Stretching around 870,000 miles (over 1.4 million kilometers) across every ocean, these cables transmit almost 100% of global internet communication.

    Underwater cables unite the world.
    TeleGeography/submarinecablemap.com, CC BY-SA

    These information superhighways are a major engine for the modern economy and are indispensable for things such as almost instantaneous financial transactions and real-time diplomatic and military communications.

    If all these cables were suddenly severed, only a sliver of U.S. communication traffic could be restored using every satellite in orbit.

    The entire system is built, owned, operated and maintained by the private sector. Indeed, approximately 98% of these cables are installed by a handful of firms. As of 2021, the U.S. company SubCom, French firm Alcatel Submarine Networks and Japanese firm Nippon Electric Company collectively held an 87% market share. China’s HMN Tech holds another 11%.

    Tech giants including Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft now own or lease roughly half of the undersea bandwidth worldwide, according to analysis by the U.S.-based telecommunications research group TeleGeography.

    Vulnerabilities and sabotage

    The very characteristics that make undersea cables effective also render them highly vulnerable. Built to be lightweight and efficient, they are exposed to a variety of natural hazards, including underwater volcanic eruptions, typhoons and floods.

    But human activity is still the primary cause of cable damage, whether it’s from accidental anchor drags or inadvertent entanglement with trawler nets.

    Now, security experts are increasingly concerned that future human disruptions might be intentional, with nations launching coordinated attacks on undersea cables as part of a hybrid war strategy.

    Such assaults could disrupt not only civilian communications but also critical military networks.

    An adversary, for example, could cut off a nation’s command structures from intelligence feeds, sensor data and communication with deployed forces. The ramifications extend even to nuclear deterrence: Without reliable communication, a nuclear-armed state might lose the ability to control or monitor its strategic weapons.

    The loss of communications, even for a few minutes, could be catastrophic. It could mean the difference between a successful defense and a crippling first strike.

    A technician explains the undersea damage to cables around Taiwan following a 2006 earthquake.
    Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

    Geopolitical threats

    In recent years, Western policymakers have become particularly concerned about the capabilities of Russia and China to exploit the vulnerabilities of undersea cables.

    One particularly illustrative incident occurred in 2023 when Taiwanese authorities accused two Chinese vessels of cutting the only two subsea cables supplying internet to Taiwan’s Matsu Islands.

    The resulting digital isolation of 14,000 residents for six weeks was not an one-off episode. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has pointed to a pattern, noting that Chinese vessels have disrupted cable operations on 27 occasions since 2018.

    In January 2025, Taiwan’s coast guard blamed a Cameroon- and Tanzania-flagged vessel crewed by seven Chinese nationals and operated by a Hong Kong-based company when an undersea cable was severed off the island’s northeastern coast.

    Such incidents, often described as gray-zone aggression, are designed to wear down an adversary’s resilience and test the limits of response.

    China’s recent push to enhance its cable-cutting capabilities coincides with a surge in its military drills around Taiwan, including a number of recent exercises.

    Similar cable disruptions have occurred in the Baltic Sea. In October 2023, a telecom cable connecting Sweden and Estonia was damaged along with a gas pipeline. In January 2025, a cable linking Latvia and Sweden was breached, triggering NATO patrols and a Swedish seizure of a vessel suspected of sabotage tied to Russian activities.

    Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, even hinted at the possibility of targeting undersea communication cables as retaliation for actions such as the Nord Stream pipeline explosions in 2023.

    The involvement of state-linked vessels in incidents operating under flags of convenience − that is, registered to another country − further complicates efforts to attribute and deter such attacks.

    It isn’t just security and defense at risk. The modern financial system is predicated on the assumption of continuous, high-speed connectivity; any interruption, however brief, could disrupt markets, halt trading and lead to significant monetary losses.

    The undersea battlefield

    Given the strategic importance of undersea cables and the multifaceted risks they face, Western governments intent on preventing further conflict would be wise to find a comprehensive and internationally coordinated way to secure the infrastructure against threats.

    One clear option would be to bolster repair and maintenance capacities. Currently, a significant vulnerability stems from the overreliance on Chinese repair ships. China’s robust maritime industry and state-supported investments in global telecommunications has contributed to the Asian nation taking a prominent position when it comes to cable repair ships.

    The protection of undersea cables should not, I believe, be viewed as the responsibility of any single nation but as a collective priority for all nations reliant on this infrastructure. As such, international frameworks and agreements could facilitate information sharing, standardize security protocols and establish rapid response mechanisms in the event of a cable breach.

    But such international efforts would be fighting against the tide. The incidents in Taiwan, the Baltic Sea and elsewhere come as great power competition intensifies between the U.S. and China.

    China, in developing deep-water cable-cutting technology, may be sending a message of intent. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s “America First” approach signals a shift that could complicate efforts to foster partnerships for the general global good.

    The defense of undersea cables reflects the challenges of our hyperconnected world, requiring a balance of innovation, strategy and cooperation. But as nations including China and Russia seemingly test and probe this vital global infrastructure, it appears the systems underpinning the West’s prosperity and security could become one of its greatest vulnerabilities.

    John Calabrese does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. China’s new underwater tool cuts deep, exposing vulnerability of vital network of subsea cables – https://theconversation.com/chinas-new-underwater-tool-cuts-deep-exposing-vulnerability-of-vital-network-of-subsea-cables-251877

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Will Africa’s young voters continue to punish incumbents at the ballot box in 2025? We are about to find out

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Richard Aidoo, Professor of Political Science, Coastal Carolina University

    Supporters of opposition candidate and former President John Dramani Mahama celebrate his victory in Accra, Ghana, on Dec. 8, 2024. AP Photo/Jerome Delay

    Voters in Gabon head to the ballot box on April 12, 2025, in a vote that marks the first election in the Central African nation since a 2023 coup ended the 56-year rule of the Bongo family.

    It is also the first presidential vote to take place in Africa in 2025, to be followed by contests later this year in Ivory Coast, Malawi, Guinea, Central African Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Tanzania, Seychelles and Cameroon.

    Of particular interest is whether these elections will continue the trend of last year’s votes. As the continent with the youngest population, Africa’s youth was crucial throughout 2024 to a series of seismic political shifts – not least the removal of incumbents and changes in the governing status quo in Ghana, Senegal and South Africa.

    Indeed, analysis of the 2024 African Youth Survey – one of the most comprehensive continent-wide polls of people age 18 to 24 – and election results of that year show a clear lack of optimism among the youth.

    Unemployment, the rising cost of living and corruption are primary factors driving youth dissatisfaction on the continent. For example, 59% of South African youth considered their country to be heading the wrong direction – and that’s not hard to imagine given that the country’s youth unemployment rate reached 45.5% in 2024. Not surprisingly, unemployment was a key factor in the election results. Meanwhile, widespread protests in Kenya and Uganda in the summer of 2024 were youth-led and sparked, respectively, by concerns over tax increases and corruption.

    As a professor of political science and an expert in African politics, I believe that a failure to address such concerns could have potentially serious implications for political leaders in the upcoming elections. It also makes it more difficult for countries to consolidate or protect already-fragile democracies on the continent.

    Unemployment fueling instability

    While African political campaigns often make note of persistently high rates of youth unemployment, the policy priorities of governments across the continent have seemingly failed to fix this intractable problem.

    In a 2023 Afrobarometer survey, unemployment topped the list of policy priorities for African youth between the ages of 18 and 35.

    Supporters of the UMkhonto weSizwe party, which helped unseat the long-time African National Congress, attend an election meeting near Durban, South Africa, ahead of the May 2024 general elections.
    AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti

    But for a multitude of reasons – including the lack of investment in training youth and other priorities – African governments have been unable or unwilling to tackle youth unemployment.

    Many governments, faced with the ongoing economic aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain issues – which exacerbated rising living costs, high inflation and external debt issues – pursued unpopular revenue collection policies

    Take Ghana, where in 2022 the government introduced an e-levy – a tax on electronic cash transfers. The move proved deeply unpopular and was dropped by the new government in 2024.

    The violent anti-tax protests in Kenya also provide an example of desperate unemployed youth tapping into a sense of deep popular resentment over fiscal policies.

    The combination of deep dissatisfaction with government policies and high youth joblessness can be a destabilizing influence. A 2023 United Nations Development Program study focusing on Ghana pointed to a problem that is common elsewhere on the continent. It concluded that in regions with higher-than-average youth unemployment, that factor was the most common cause for violent extremism and radicalization.

    The U.N. study underscored the importance of addressing the social and economic challenges that foster marginalization and anger among youth across sub-Saharan Africa.

    The issue of youth unemployment in Africa is exacerbated by the cumulative growth in the youth labor force – estimated to grow by 72.6 million between 2023 and 2050, according to a 2024 report by the International Labor Organization.

    The role that unemployment played in Africa’s 2024 elections does not bode well for some of those governments heading to the polls this year. In Gabon, youth unemployment has hovered above 35% in recent years.

    A corrupting influence

    Corruption remains a persistent social and political issue in much of Africa and continues to impede the efforts of youth to seek meaningful opportunities. So it is unsurprising that the issue was front and center during a number of 2024 elections, including in Senegal, South Africa and Ghana.

    The concerns in those countries mirror grievances registered around the continent more broadly, with reducing government corruption listed as a top priority by respondents in the African Youth Survey.

    Similar to unemployment, high levels of corruption correlated to some of the political shifts of 2024.

    An Afrobarometer survey of attitudes in 2024 showed that 74% of Ghanaians believed corruption had increased over the previous year.

    In Kenya, 77% of people view their government’s efforts in fighting corruption as ineffectual.

    Of particular concern to many African youth is the belief that security forces and government officials are often considered the most corrupt and that incidents of regularized corruption are underreported.

    And it is youth that bear the brunt of much of this corruption. According to a 2022 U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime report, people between the ages 18 and 34 are among the most vulnerable to having to pay bribes to public officials in Ghana.

    Supporters of soldiers who launched a coup against the government demonstrate in Niamey, Niger, on July 27, 2023.
    AP Photo/Fatahoulaye Hassane Midou

    Again, youth attitudes toward corruption don’t bode well for many of the governments in this year’s elections. Gabon, Cameroon, Central African Republic and Guinea-Bissau all score poorly on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index.

    The fragility of democracy

    There is an ongoing debate on the extent of slowdown of democratic progress in Africa, a trend that is underscored by a number of African military coups in recent years, including in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger.

    Democracy is at its strongest when it empowers governments to deliver on the needs of their populations, particularly the youth.

    But the experience of incumbent governments in 2024 elections suggests that too many may have disregarded young people’s needs, which in turn has led to anger resulting in destabilizing protests and regime change – both through democratic and undemocratic means.

    It also makes it harder to instill democratic sentiment among younger voters.

    Over half of Africa’s 18- to 35-year-olds surveyed in the 2023 Afrobarometer agreed that the military can intervene when leaders abuse power – a pertinent caution about their willingness to support political change, even if it interrupts the democratic process.

    While a majority of youth in Africa still retain an apparent preference for democracy to other forms of governance, a growing proportion would embrace nondemocratic governance under some circumstances, according to the 2024 African Youth Survey. The top scores in this particular response came from Gabon, Ivory Coast and Tanzania – all of which have upcoming elections in 2025.

    Richard Aidoo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will Africa’s young voters continue to punish incumbents at the ballot box in 2025? We are about to find out – https://theconversation.com/will-africas-young-voters-continue-to-punish-incumbents-at-the-ballot-box-in-2025-we-are-about-to-find-out-251413

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Sophia Staite, Lecturer in Humanities, University of Tasmania

    Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

    Social media is ablaze with reports of kids going wild at screenings of A Minecraft Movie.

    Some cinemas are cracking down. There are reports of cinemas calling in police to deal with rowdy theatregoers and making special announcements before the film, warning of consequences for “anti-social behaviour” including “clapping and shouting”.

    But these kids are engaging in a kind of communal experience. Rather than being antisocial behaviour – couldn’t we label it as prosocial?

    The global fandom of Minecraft

    Minecraft was first released in 2011 and has sold over 350 million copies, making it the best-selling video game of all time.

    Minecraft is an unstructured game that provides mineable resources and leaves players to create whatever they want with them. Creations can be as basic as stacking blocks of wood to make a wall, or as complex as a working computer.

    It has become the nexus of a vast online community of people with an interest in the game.

    Players connect to one-another digitally and share certain social norms and knowledge, including a memeified vernacular. Minecraft-playing Youtubers have also become popular, and are the source of many memes.

    The community is dominated by children and young adults and the incomprehensibility of their vernacular for other generations is possibly part of its appeal.

    Within child and youth fan communities the usual hierarchies of communication are reversed. Instead of kids having to learn to speak according to adults’ rules, in this community the kids maintain a knowledge system that excludes a lot of adults.

    Enter A Minecraft Movie

    A Minecraft Movie opened last weekend to enormous box office success, bringing in US$313.2 million globally. The film follows four humans who stumble through a portal into the Overworld (Minecraft). Their only way home involves teaming up with fellow human Steve (Jack Black) to save the Overworld from the creativity-hating Piglins.

    Almost immediately, social media conversations sprang up about the behaviour of audiences. One bemused parent described the atmosphere of the cinema as “like [when] The Beatles came to America”.

    Many of the videos shared of audiences during screenings show joyful scenes of communal pleasure, similar to other responses to highly anticipated films such as Avengers: Endgame.

    But while the response to Avengers: Endgame was celebrated, the behaviour of children and teens at A Minecraft Movie has been framed by news outlets in negative terms.

    Journalist Keith Stuart suggests the different responses are a result of parents feeling excluded by A Minecraft Movie’s frequent references to memes.

    Negative news reports link audience behaviour to existing moral panics about social media challenges and are particularly focused on popcorn being thrown.

    The use of the same two or three videos of popcorn throwing to illustrate multiple news articles highlights how relatively few reports of popcorn throwing there currently are.

    Instead, most of the debate on social media has been about the etiquette of noisiness during screenings, including cheering and clapping.

    Finding community

    A Minecraft Movie speaks the memeified vernacular of its online community.

    The film incorporates references to longstanding memes, popular Minecraft YouTubers (and some cameos) and, of course, to the game itself.

    The film is speaking directly to Minecraft fans, and audiences are responding by displaying their mastery of this vernacular and strengthening their sense of belonging.

    By clapping and cheering when they recognise a meme, or saying lines of dialogue in sync with the actors, kids are identifying themselves as members of a community.

    When a whole cinema full of young people does this simultaneously, they are identifying themselves to and with one another.

    This is prosocial, strategic communication – not the antisocial pandemonium and chaos some reports would have us believe. Instead, fans are reporting the cheering and clapping happens at specific moments: they are enjoying both the film, and reacting to it.

    During the brief (but meaningful for knowledgeable audience members) tribute to beloved YouTuber Technoblade, who died of cancer in 2022, there have been reports of whole theatres falling silent as a mark of respect.

    An online community of kids and teens has suddenly become hyper visible to adults because it has intersected with the traditional media space of the cinema.

    Online games such as Minecraft are a crucial part of kids’ social lives and play.

    Perhaps adults can seize this moment as an opportunity to learn more about something that clearly matters deeply to a lot of kids.

    Sophia Staite does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect – https://theconversation.com/kids-cheering-chicken-jockey-at-a-minecraft-movie-isnt-antisocial-it-creates-a-chance-for-us-to-connect-254287

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Do Inuit languages really have many words for snow? The most interesting finds from our study of 616 languages

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Charles Kemp, Professor, School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne

    Shutterstock

    Languages are windows into the worlds of the people who speak them – reflecting what they value and experience daily.

    So perhaps it’s no surprise different languages highlight different areas of vocabulary. Scholars have noted that Mongolian has many horse-related words, that Maori has many words for ferns, and Japanese has many words related to taste.

    Some links are unsurprising, such as German having many words related to beer, or Fijian having many words for fish. The linguist Paul Zinsli wrote an entire book on Swiss-German words related to mountains.

    In our recently-published study we took a broad approach towards understanding the links between different languages and concepts.

    Using computational methods, we identified areas of vocabulary that are characteristic of specific languages, to provide insight into linguistic and cultural variation.

    Our work adds to a growing understanding of language, culture, and the way they both relate.

    Japanese has many words related to taste. One of these is umami, which is often used to describe the rich taste of matcha green tea.
    Shutterstock

    Our method

    We tested 163 links between languages and concepts, drawn from the literature.

    We compiled a digital dataset of 1574 bilingual dictionaries that translate between English and 616 different languages. Since many of these dictionaries were still under copyright, we only had access to counts of how often a particular word appeared in each dictionary.

    One example of a concept we looked at was “horse”, for which the top-scoring languages included French, German, Kazakh and Mongolian. This means dictionaries in these languages had a relatively high number of

    1. words for horses. For instance, Mongolian аргамаг means “a good racing or riding horse”
    2. words related to horses. For instance, Mongolian чөдөрлөх means “to hobble a horse”.

    However, it is also possible the counts were influenced by “horse” appearing in example sentences for unrelated terms.

    Not a hoax after all?

    Our findings support most links previously highlighted by researchers, including that Hindi has many words related to love and Japanese has many words related to obligation and duty.

    ‘Silk’ was one of the most popular concepts for Mandarin Chinese.
    Shutterstock

    We were especially interested in testing the idea that Inuit languages have many words for snow. This notorious claim has long been distorted and exaggerated. It has even been dismissed as the “great Eskimo vocabulary hoax”, with some experts saying it simply isn’t true.

    But our results suggest the Inuit snow vocabulary is indeed exceptional. Out of 616 languages, the language with the top score for “snow” was Eastern Canadian Inuktitut. The other two Inuit languages in our data set (Western Canadian Inuktitut and North Alaskan Inupiatun) also achieved high scores for “snow”.

    The Eastern Canadian Inuktitut dictionary in our dataset includes terms such as kikalukpok, which means “noisy walking on hard snow”, and apingaut, which means “first snow fall”.

    The top 20 languages for “snow” included several other languages of Alaska, such as Ahtena, Dena’ina and Central Alaskan Yupik, as well as Japanese and Scots.

    Scots includes terms such as doon-lay, meaning “a heavy fall of snow”, feughter meaning “a sudden, slight fall of snow”, and fuddum, meaning “snow drifting at intervals”.

    You can explore our findings using the tool we developed, which allows you to identify the top languages for any given concept, and the top concepts for a particular language.

    Language and environment

    Although the languages with top scores for “snow” are all spoken in snowy regions, the top-ranked languages for “rain” were not always from the rainiest parts of the world.

    For instance, South Africa has a medium level of rainfall, but languages from this region, such as Nyanja, East Taa and Shona, have many rain-related words. This is probably because, unlike snow, rain is important for human survival – which means people still talk about it in its absence.

    For speakers of East Taa, rain is both relatively rare and desirable. This is reflected in terms such as lábe ||núu-bâ, an “honorific form of address to thunder to bring rain” and |qába, which refers to the “ritual sprinkling of water or urine to bring rain”.

    Our tool can also be used to explore various concepts related to perception (“smell”), emotion (“love”) and cultural beliefs (“ghost”).

    The top-scoring languages for “smell” include a cluster of Oceanic languages such as Marshallese, which has terms such as jatbo meaning “smell of damp clothing”, meļļā meaning “smell of blood”, and aelel meaning “smell of fish, lingering on hands, body, or utensils”.

    Prior to our research, the smell terms of the Pacific Islands had received little attention.

    Some caveats

    Although our analysis reveals many interesting links between languages and concepts, the results aren’t always reliable – and should be checked against original dictionaries where possible.

    For example, the top concepts for Plautdietsch (Mennonite Low German) include von (“of”), den (“the”) and und (“and”) – all of which are unrevealing. We excluded similar words from other languages using Wiktionary, but our method did not filter out these common words for Plautdietsch.

    Also, the word counts reflect both dictionary definitions and other elements, such as example sentences. While our analysis excluded words that are especially likely to appear in example sentences (such as “woman” and “father”), such words could have still influenced our results to some extent.

    Most importantly, our results run the risk of perpetuating potentially harmful stereotypes if taken at face value. So we urge caution and respect while using the tool. The concepts it lists for any given language provide, at best, a crude reflection of the cultures associated with that language.

    Charles Kemp was supported by a Future Fellowship (FT190100200) awarded by the Australian Research Council.

    Temuulen Khishigsuren was supported by a Future Fellowship (FT190100200) awarded by the Australian Research Council.

    Ekaterina Vylomova and Terry Regier do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Do Inuit languages really have many words for snow? The most interesting finds from our study of 616 languages – https://theconversation.com/do-inuit-languages-really-have-many-words-for-snow-the-most-interesting-finds-from-our-study-of-616-languages-252522

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pikachu protesters, Studio Ghibli memes and the subversive power of cuteness

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Yii-Jan Lin, Associate Professor of New Testament, Yale University

    The Pokémon character Pikachu has become the unofficial symbol of the opposition to Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Pat Batard/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

    In Antalya, Turkey, in the early hours of March 27, 2025, Pikachu was spotted fleeing the police, making a getaway as fast as his short yellow legs could waddle.

    The person dressed as the popular Pokémon character had been objecting to the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, whose political party later posted on X, “Pepper spray, which even affects Pikachu, won’t do anything to you or me! #ResistPikachu.”

    At the same time, the internet was having a field day with another stalwart of Japanese anime, deploying generative AI to infuse famous memes, family portraits and movie scenes with a patina of cuteness by recasting them in the style of the Japanese animation company Studio Ghibli.

    Never mind that Studio Ghibli director and founder Hayao Miyazaki famously denounced AI-generated art as “an insult to life itself.” Both the Pikachu protester and the viral Studio Ghibli-esque animations demonstrate the global appeal of cuteness.

    But to me, there’s more to cute than its ability to go viral.

    Cuteness can be used politically. It can highlight injustices against the vulnerable, and it can boost support of the underdog.

    It’s a form of soft power in the truest sense of the term.

    Asia embraces the cute

    As a Taiwanese American, I’ve been a lifelong fan of the cuteness that’s part of East Asian cultures: cute cartoon characters, cute stationery and even cute-looking food.

    Now I study cuteness: what makes something “cute,” and how it operates in culture and politics.

    Many well-known, cute, pop culture characters and products can be traced to Japan, particularly after World War II, when Japanese animation – known as anime – and a style of Japanese comics called manga became popular.

    Their narratives and aesthetics spoke to a country still reeling from devastation wrought by the atomic bombs and the humiliation of U.S. occupation.

    Anime and manga imagined both dystopian and utopian futures, using stories that were nostalgic, upsetting, or a blend of both to process collective trauma.

    In many cases, cute characters guided viewers and readers through grief, guilt and loss. For example, the manga “Barefoot Gen” details the adventures of 6-year-old Gen after he survives the bombing of Hiroshima. Likewise, Studio Ghibli’s “Grave of the Fireflies” tells the story of two young siblings, Seita and Setsuko, who face starvation after the bombing of Kobe in the waning days of World War II. They’re drawn with large eyes and expressive faces, evoking innocence and powerlessness.

    The trailer for Studio Ghibli’s ‘Grave of the Fireflies.’

    Both Studio Ghibli and the Pokémon franchise emerged in the latter half of the 20th century, along with other titans of cuteness, such as Hello Kitty – she just celebrated her 50th birthday – Doraemon, and popular Nintendo characters Kirby and Yoshi.

    Cuteness now dominates East Asian cultures.

    Cute mascots such as Tencent’s QQ Penguin hawk products in China; popular cartoon characters plaster the sides of Japanese trains; and Taipei’s subway cards come in the shape of pink bunnies and miniature rice cookers.

    In Japan, the term “kawaii” refers to the lovable and cute. This includes not only cartoon characters and plush dolls, but also clothing and even speech, such as talking with a pout or in a childlike voice.

    Across Asia, you can see cuteness celebrated in the way people flash heart symbols with their fingers – a gesture originating in South Korea – and you can hear it in the way celebrities sometimes speak with a baby voice, puff out their cheeks or bat their eyelashes.

    Characters often express themselves in cute ways on television shows in Korea, where it’s called ‘aegyo.’

    Softening the blows

    Cuteness has a place in American culture. But it has nowhere near the cultural cachet that it has in Asia.

    Yet to me, the Studio Ghibli memes that swept American social media platforms revealed a widespread longing for tenderness at a time when the world seems particularly harsh, violent and unpredictable.

    Theorist Sianne Ngai has argued that cuteness is usually based on the power differential between the observer and the cute object: A small kitten, a stuffed animal or a cooing baby are cute, in part, because they’re so vulnerable.

    I think that’s why the White House’s efforts to join in on the Ghibli memes fell flat. Its X account posted a Ghibli-esque image of a Dominican woman crying while being handcuffed by an ICE agent. The depiction generated outrage.

    The cartoon imagines that the audience would revel in punching down. It’s a perversion of how cuteness works, celebrating the powerful – the ICE agent and the U.S. government – and not the powerless. Contrast the White House’s image with the “Grave of the Fireflies,” which highlighted the vulnerability of children during war.

    Rallying around cuteness

    Yet the powerlessness of cute characters can also, paradoxically, be powerful: Most onlookers can’t help but cheer for a furry, yellow cartoon animal fleeing from riot police. A cute character can look helpless, but it can rally support for the underdog.

    Perhaps that’s why Pikachu again popped up at two other protests: at an anti-Netanyahu demonstration in Israel on April 5, 2025, and at an anti-Trump rally in Washington, D.C. that same day.

    Cuteness, perhaps not surprisingly, has been used as a political tool in Asia. The Milk Tea Alliance, which formed in 2020, is a pan-Asian, pro-democracy movement that unites communities in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Myanmar and beyond.

    The origins of the Milk Tea Alliance.

    Organizers pointedly emphasize the effectiveness of cuteness and humor as a tool to condemn violence and denounce authoritarianism. Online images shared by the movement include anime-style drawings of young student protestors and cartoons of anthropomorphized cups of Taiwan bubble tea, Thai cha and Hong Kong milk tea holding hands.

    Comedy can be subversive. Political cartoons and comedians, of course, have long tapped into this dynamic.

    But cuteness adds a touch of whimsical absurdity that further defangs the power hungry. Is it any wonder Chinese officials banned the release of a Winnie-the-Pooh movie after memes comparing Xi Jinping to the beloved stuffed bear went viral?

    Despite its cuddly, quaint and charming exterior, cuteness contains hidden superpowers: It celebrates the vulnerable, while sapping authoritarians of gravitas they seek to project.

    Yii-Jan Lin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pikachu protesters, Studio Ghibli memes and the subversive power of cuteness – https://theconversation.com/pikachu-protesters-studio-ghibli-memes-and-the-subversive-power-of-cuteness-253909

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ICE can now enter K-12 schools − here’s what educators should know about student rights and privacy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian Boggs, Assistant Professor of Policy and Educational Leadership, University of Michigan

    Educators are legally obligated to protect and educate all their students. PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty

    United States federal agents tried to enter two Los Angeles elementary schools on April 7, 2025, and were denied entry, according to the Los Angeles Times. The agents were apparently seeking contact with five students who had allegedly entered the country without authorization.

    The Trump administration has been targeting foreign-born college students and professors for deportation since February 2025. This was the first known attempt to target younger students since the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in January rescinded a 2011 policy that had limited immigration enforcement actions in locations deemed sensitive by the government such as hospitals, churches and schools.

    “Criminals will no longer be able to hide in America’s schools and churches to avoid arrest,” the department said on Jan. 21, 2025.

    Roughly 600,000 migrant students without legal status are enrolled in the U.S public education system.

    Many K-12 educators are worried that Immigration and Customs Enforcement could start removing students from classrooms. In some places, including New York City, school attendance has decreased over fears that children could be swept up in a raid.

    I am a scholar who studies the intersection of U.S. law and the public education system. Under U.S. law, ICE can now legally enter K-12 school grounds. That makes it important for students and schools to understand their rights under the law.

    The federal government

    Article 1, Section 8, of the U.S. Constitution gives Congress the ability to regulate immigration and “provide for the common defense and general Welfare of the United States.”

    This last clause was used following the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001 as the constitutional basis to establish the Department of Homeland Security and create ICE as one of its security agencies. ICE enforces over 400 federal statutes dealing with immigration, including the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, which allows it to investigate and detain certain noncitizens.

    ICE arrested Columbia University student Mahmoud Kahlil in March 2025, spurring protests. Several other international students have been detained since.
    Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images

    This law can place schools and their staff in a potentially conflicted legal position if ICE starts targeting schools, because educators have legal obligations to their students.

    Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 requires public schools to educate every student without regard for their citizenship or immigration status. Meanwhile, residents of all 50 U.S. states have the right to a free and public education under their state’s constitution.

    Under the laws governing immigration and ICE’s role in enforcement, educators cannot obstruct an ICE investigation or knowingly hide students.

    Laws and court precedents

    The U.S. Supreme Court has additionally ruled that students who are not legally living in the U.S. have the same right to an education as any other child.

    In the 1975 U.S. Supreme Court decision Plyler v. Doe, the justices struck down a Texas law allowing the state to withhold school district funds for educating children without legal immigration status. The court said the law was unconstitutional because it violated the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment, which reads in part that no state shall “deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

    Plyler v. Doe asserted that “person” meant just that − a person, not necessarily a citizen.

    Around the same time, the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act was enacted to protect personal student information from release to a third party. That includes law enforcement and ICE, except under three circumstances: the parents consent to the release; a school directory includes student information; or a court orders the school to release the information.

    Finally, the McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act says that schools must enroll and educate students who are with unstable living situations, including migrants, without discrimination.

    In addition to these federal laws and cases, many states have additional laws that encourage the education of local K-12 students who lack citizenship or residency status. In Michigan, for example, the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act of 1976 prohibits discrimination based on national origin and race in schools, including in admissions and expulsions.

    A women who fears she could be targeted by immigration officials holds a ‘know your rights’ card handed out by her grandchildren’s school on Jan. 22, 2025, in the San Francisco Bay Area.
    AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez

    School districts and ICE

    What can K-12 educators do if they find themselves confronting contradictory legal obligations − that of educating all students and that of not impeding a criminal investigation?

    Interpreting conflicts in the law is the job of judges − not teachers, ICE agents or academics. The following guidance may help districts prepare for immigration enforcement in K-12 schools:

    1. Get ready. Every school district should develop a process and protocol for how to engage with law enforcement in general and ICE specifically.

    This plan would involve coordination between the school principals and district superintendent, as well as, most importantly, the district’s lawyers. Traditional school corporate counsel may not have much experience in criminal law; engaging additional counsel with experience in criminal procedures and Fourth Amendment protections can be helpful.

    Everyone should understand their role in the plan. Administrative assistants are likely to be the first people engaged when ICE shows up to the school. Do they know what to do?

    2. Collect data thoughtfully. There is no state or federal mandate for schools to document citizenship for K-12 school enrollment, though some states are considering requiring proof of citizenship or legal immigration status for enrollment, including Oklahoma, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee and New Jersey.

    3. Obey the law. The Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act forbids sharing certain information about students with outsiders, including law enforcement. As a rule, then, staff should always avoid discussing students beyond what they are required to do as a function of their employment. Many school board policies ensure that the information they release publicly about enrolled students is minimal.

    4. Understand how warrants work. Just because a school is public does not mean that anyone can just come into a classroom, and that includes the police or ICE. A warrant may not be required to detain or arrest a student on the spot, but law enforcement must produce one to access any nonpublic areas of the school in search of that student. They must also show a warrant to see student records or other information, unless parents have previously consented to this information being shared.

    Under exigent circumstances, such as if the public is at risk of imminent harm, a warrant may not be required for police to enter the school.

    5. Keep records. If ICE does knock on the schoolhouse door, administrators should be sure to prepare a report, in accordance with school board policies, for the school district’s records that describes everything that happened and retain all documentation.

    Brian Boggs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ICE can now enter K-12 schools − here’s what educators should know about student rights and privacy – https://theconversation.com/ice-can-now-enter-k-12-schools-heres-what-educators-should-know-about-student-rights-and-privacy-253519

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A Roman governor ordered Jesus’ crucifixion – so why did many Christians blame Jews for centuries?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nathanael Andrade, Professor of History, Binghamton University, State University of New York

    ‘Ecce Homo’ (Behold the Man), by 19th-century painter Antonio Ciseri, depicts Pontius Pilate presenting Jesus to a crowd in Jerusalem. Tungsten/Galleria d’Arte Moderna via Wikimedia Commons

    It’s a straightforward part of the Easter story: The Roman governor Pontius Pilate had Jesus of Nazareth killed by his soldiers. He imposed a sentence that Roman judges often inflicted on social subversives – crucifixion.

    The New Testament Gospels say so. The Nicene Creed, one of Christianity’s key statements of faith, says Jesus “was crucified under Pontius Pilate.” The testimony of Paul, the first person whose preaching in the name of Jesus Christ is preserved in the New Testament, refers to the crucifixion.

    But over the past 2,000 years, it was common for some Christians to deem Pilate almost blameless for Jesus’ death and treat Jews as responsible – a belief that has shaped the global history of antisemitism.

    Throughout medieval times, Easter was often a dangerous time for Jewish communities, whom Christians targeted as “Christ-killers”. This perception was integral to the hate that motivated mass violence in Europe as late as the 19th and 20th centuries, including pogroms in Russia and even Nazi genocide.

    Why did Christian teachings practically let Pilate off the hook? Why did many Christians allege Jews were to blame?

    The Gospels’ story

    In the Gospels, the first four books of the New Testament, Pilate believes Jesus innocent of any crime. In some of them, he even proclaims so in public.

    But the chief priests of the ancient Jewish temple at Jerusalem see Jesus as a charismatic and popular Jewish preacher who challenges their authority. They have Jesus arrested and tried before Pilate during the week of Passover.

    ‘Jesus Before Pilate, First Interview,’ by 19th-century painter James Tissot.
    Gandvik/Brooklyn Museum via Wikimedia Commons

    Pilate schemes for Jesus’ release, but a riotous crowd clamors for his death. Pilate caves and decides to crucify Jesus, whom Christians believe rose from the dead three days later.

    Any reader of the Gospels knows the sequence, though it varies somewhat in each of them. The earliest Gospels, composed at least a generation after Jesus’ death, blamed the chief priests and attending crowd for persuading Pilate to have Jesus crucified. The Gospel of John, written some decades after the other three, portrayed Jews in general as responsible, and so did much of early Christian literature.

    One account, written in the mid-second century or later, and not included in the New Testament, even claimed that Jesus’ crucifixion was not ordered by Pilate. Instead, it blamed Herod Antipas, the Jewish ruler of Galilee – the region where Jesus grew up. Other texts from after the first few centuries A.D. said that Pilate became a Christian.

    Roman history

    Scholars have long debated the historical facts of Jesus’ trial. In my 2025 book, “Killing the Messiah,” I do too.

    The Gospel testimonies capture the basics of criminal trials before Roman judges, which were held in public. Judges posed questions to prosecutors and defendants, and had ample power to decide whether a person was innocent or guilty and impose a punishment.

    Writers who lived in the Roman Empire portrayed judges as capricious, unaccountable or swayed by menacing crowds. The Gospels reflect this attitude by making Pilate appear bullied into condemning an innocent man.

    An illustration from the 14th century shows Pontius Pilate washing his hands to absolve himself as Christ is beaten before crucifixion.
    Heritage Art/Heritage Images via Getty Images

    But from a historian’s viewpoint, there is a crucial problem with the Gospels’ description. Roman judges could and sometimes did face removal from office, property confiscation, exile or even death for executing clearly innocent people. In other words, it seems unlikely that Pilate would have proclaimed Jesus guiltless, but then conceded to pressure and condemned him anyway.

    Other ancient writers describe Pilate as someone who was not above offending the Jews of Judaea. According to the first-century Jewish philosopher Philo and the historian Josephus, Pilate had his soldiers carry objects that honored Roman emperors into Jerusalem, which Jewish residents saw as sacrilegious. When crowds protested, he sometimes backed down. But his soldiers attacked an agitated crowd that opposed Pilate’s use of Temple money to build an aqueduct. They also massacred an insurrection of Samaritans – people who also claimed descent from Israelites.

    Pilate did not cave to hostile crowds indiscriminately, or do whatever the chief priests wanted. Since Roman prefects like him had to coordinate with Jewish priests to govern Jerusalem, he likely viewed people who incited social disturbance against them as subversive. Jesus would have fit in that category, but neither Philo nor Josephus provides examples of Pilate killing people after acquitting them.

    Growing divide

    Why, then, did Pilate have Jesus crucified? As many scholars have argued, the simple answer would be that he believed Jesus committed some sort of sedition – not that the crowd simply pressured Pilate into doing so.

    Yet, when the Gospels were composed a generation after the crucifixion, they portrayed Pilate as convinced of Jesus’ innocence. As more time passed, other works of ancient Christian literature shifted accountability from Pilate to Jews.

    A mosaic showing St. Paul, one of the earliest apostles who preached after Jesus’ death, in the Basilica of San Vitale in Ravenna, Italy.
    Reserveacc/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    The experiences of Jesus’ early followers help explain this shift. They, like Jesus himself, were Jewish, and they considered him a heaven-sent Messiah. But over the course of the first and second centuries, they increasingly separated themselves from other Jews, until they began to see themselves as members of a non-Jewish movement: Christianity.

    In Roman authorities’ eyes, the Christians were troublesome, and they sometimes faced prosecution and capital punishment. In addition, Rome had inflicted atrocities and punitive measures upon Jews after insurgencies – further motivating Jesus’ followers to distance themselves. Their literature became increasingly hostile toward Jews.

    Historians and biblical scholars continue to debate why Pilate condemned Jesus. Was it for suggesting that he was the Messiah, or, in Pilate’s wording, “King of the Jews”? Did Jesus incite a crowd disturbance at the Temple during Passover – or were officials worried he could, even inadvertently? Were Jesus and his followers engaged in armed insurrection?

    But regardless of the answer, as I argue in my book, responsibility for the crucifixion lies with Pilate – not the chief priests and the Jewish crowd at Jerusalem.

    Nathanael Andrade has received fellowship funding from the Andrew Mellon Foundation/the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, the Institute for Research in the Humanities at the University of Wisconsin, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

    – ref. A Roman governor ordered Jesus’ crucifixion – so why did many Christians blame Jews for centuries? – https://theconversation.com/a-roman-governor-ordered-jesus-crucifixion-so-why-did-many-christians-blame-jews-for-centuries-250231

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pornography may be commonplace, but a growing body of research shows it causes lasting harm to the brain and relationships

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Danielle Sukenik, Assistant Professor of Psychiatry, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

    Problematic porn use is defined by having difficulty controlling or limiting use. taviox/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    While pornography has been present throughout human history in various forms, such as ancient erotic art to more modernized motion pictures, research shows an increase in use over recent decades given the rise of technology and accessibility.

    Pornography, meaning any media intended to depict or describe sexual content to heighten sexual arousal or pleasure, can serve many purposes. Users may seek sexual pleasure, find it a fun way to fight boredom, or turn to it because they are down or stressed and perhaps want to escape their feelings.

    Statistics show pornography to be commonplace: A 2018 study found that 91.5% of men and 60.2% of women had consumed it in the past month.

    It’s important to ask: What does viewing explicit materials do to your brain and real-life sexual and romantic relationships, and specifically to the people who see it when they are as young as 10 years old or even earlier?

    I am a licensed marriage and family therapist specializing in the treatment of a variety of mental health challenges. These include issues that are often seen in the context of relationships and larger systems such as media and pornography.

    While neither problematic pornography use nor addiction to it is listed in the handbook used for mental health diagnostics, known as the DSM, it may still be detrimental for many people in terms of their behavior, their relationships and their mental and physical well-being. People with problematic porn use have trouble reducing or controlling their pornography use despite the harm it does to their life.

    I will walk through some of these consequences below, starting with how the brain can be changed with pornography use.

    Brain changes behind pornography use

    While some of the most pertinent studies were done a decade ago or more, they remain highly relevant. Conducting research in this arena can be difficult due to the DSM’s exclusion of pornography “addiction” as a disorder as well as the sensitive nature of the topic. Controlled experiments on humans, particularly of this kind, are inherently unethical, therefore studies rely on surveys and reports.

    A 2015 study − one of the first brain scan studies on male pornography users − found a correlation between pornography use and reduced gray matter in part of the brain’s reward system involved in motivation and decision-making. The study also reported lower responsiveness to pornography and other sexual stimuli due to desensitization.

    This pattern likely results from lower connectivity between the prefrontal cortex − the decision-making part of the brain − and the reward as more porn is consumed. This in turn leads to increased cravings and impulsivity in order to achieve the previous levels of reward in the brain.

    Another study, published in 2016, found that 49% of subjects had experienced pursuing content that was previously not interesting to them or that they considered disgusting. Because pornography can affect brain changes and subsequent pleasure responses, porn users may eventually feel the need to seek more extreme content.

    This pursuit, in attempts to override the chemistry of the changing brain, may lend to disruption in the person’s life, often within relationships.

    So what does this look like and how are relationships suffering as a result?

    Porn can rewire the brain and has real impacts on relationships.

    How relationships can suffer

    While some research suggests that pornography use can positively support sexuality exploration in couples, including increased quality and frequency of sex with use of pornography, most studies highlight its negative impact on intimate relationships.

    The use of pornography is often associated with less relationship satisfaction and stability. Higher rates of infidelity, lower levels of commitment, increased emotional detachment and loss of trust are also evident in relationships affected by problematic porn use. The challenges related to unrealistic expectations, decreased sexual interest in a partner and increased partner insecurity influenced by pornography use have also been reported.

    One 2011 survey found that women more often told researchers that they had less sex as a result of their partner’s pornography use, and men reported being less aroused by sex with their partner. A 2021 study looking at the correlation between pornography use and sexual dysfunction in young men ages 18-35 found that more than 20% of sexually active participants reported some degree of erectile dysfunction in the month prior to the questionaire. This contrasts to 8% in men 20-29 and 11% in the 30-39 age group, based on a study of the general prevalence of erectile dysfunction across several countries.

    Given the prevalence of pornography use as well as data that indicates that consuming porn can damage relationships between intimate partners, what can couples do about it?

    Finding a way forward

    Since pornography use is often associated with shame and secrecy, it’s important for affected couples experiencing problems because one of them is consuming too much porn to openly discuss it to move through these challenges and work together as a team.

    Talking with loved ones and trusted support, such as close friends, about difficult issues is known to reduce shame, making taboo subject areas more approachable.

    I highly recommend seeking support from licensed therapists, especially those who specialize in the treatment of problematic pornography use, given the sensitive nature. In addition, peer support groups can be helpful in creating a sense of community and reducing isolation.

    Effects on young people

    It’s no surprise that pornography is getting into the hands of young people at earlier ages as accessibility via cellphones and internet use has been increasing.

    One 2022 study from Common Sense Media, an organization dedicated to helping parents navigate suitable media content for their children, reported that 73% of study respondents between the ages of 13 and 17 have watched porn. This differs from previous decades. For example, a study conducted in 2005 found 42% of youth internet users had been exposed to pornographic content.

    The 2022 study found that 54% of these young people said they had been exposed to it before reaching the age of 13, and 15% at the age of 10 or younger. About 58% said they had accidentally encountered pornographic material.

    Young people’s exposure to pornography can be disturbing to them and may be linked to higher rates of personality and impulse disorders.

    Those who are exposed to pornography at earlier ages may also end up with unrealistic views of sexual behavior and beliefs, as well as earlier sexual exploration in comparison to those who aren’t.

    Pornography use could have even more profound effects on the developing brain. This is because adolescent brains are undergoing rapid development, and connections are being formed and reorganized at a high rate of speed during the teen years, a physiological concept called neuroplasticity.

    A 2021 study of almost 11,000 European adolescents between the ages of 14 and 17 found those exposed to pornography were more likely to engage in rule-breaking and aggressive behaviors.

    These patterns drive home the great need for parental involvement in their children’s internet activity.

    Danielle Sukenik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pornography may be commonplace, but a growing body of research shows it causes lasting harm to the brain and relationships – https://theconversation.com/pornography-may-be-commonplace-but-a-growing-body-of-research-shows-it-causes-lasting-harm-to-the-brain-and-relationships-249725

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Citizenship voting requirement in SAVE Act has no basis in the Constitution – and ignores precedent that only states decide who gets to vote

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John J. Martin, Research Assistant Professor of Law, University of Virginia

    People stand in line to vote in Santa Monica, Calif., on Nov. 5, 2024. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

    The Republican-led House of Representatives passed on April 10, 2025, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act – or SAVE Act. The bill would make voting harder for tens of millions of Americans.

    The SAVE Act would require anyone registering to vote in federal elections to first “provide documentary proof of U.S. citizenship” in person, like a REAL ID or a passport.

    The House already passed an identical bill in July 2024, also along partisan lines, with the GOP largely supporting the legislation. At that time, the Senate killed the bill. With a now GOP-controlled Senate, and a Republican in the White House, the SAVE Act could become law before 2025 ends.

    Voting rights experts and advocacy organizations have detailed how the legislation could suppress voting. In part, they say it would particularly create barriers in low-income and minority communities. People in such communities often lack the forms of ID acceptable under the SAVE Act for a variety of reasons, including socioeconomic factors.

    As of now, at least 9% of voting-age American citizens – approximately 21 million people – do not have even have driver’s licenses, let alone proof of citizenship. In spite of this, many legislators support the bill as a means of eliminating noncitizen voting in elections.

    As a legal scholar who studies, among other things, foreign interference in elections, I find considerations about the potential effects of the SAVE Act important, especially given how rare it is that a noncitizen actually votes in federal elections.

    Yet, it is equally crucial to consider a more fundamental question: is the SAVE Act even constitutional?

    Voters cast their ballot in Charlotte, N.C., on Nov. 5, 2024.
    Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images

    How the SAVE Act could change voting requirements

    The SAVE Act would forbid state election officials from registering an individual to vote in federal elections unless this person “provides documentary proof of United States citizenship.”

    Acceptable forms of proof for registration would include REAL ID, a U.S. passport or a U.S. military identification card. A regular driver’s license alone would not be enough unless it shows the applicant was born in the U.S., or if it is accompanied with a birth certificate or naturalization certificate.

    So, should the SAVE Act become law, if a person turns 18 or moves between states and wishes to register to vote in federal elections in their new home, they would likely be turned away if they do not have any such documents readily available. At best, they could still fill out a registration form, but would need to mail in acceptable proof of citizenship.

    For married people with changed last names, among others, questions remain about whether birth certificates could even count as acceptable proof of citizenship for them.

    The Constitution says little about voting rights

    Despite the national conversation the SAVE Act has sparked, it is unclear whether Congress even has the power to enact it. This is the key constitutional question.

    The U.S. Constitution imposes no citizenship requirement when it comes to voting. The original text of the Constitution, in fact, said very little about the right to vote. It was not until legislators passed subsequent amendments, starting after the Civil War up through the 1970s, that the Constitution even explicitly prohibited voting laws that discriminate on account of race, sex or age.

    Aside from these amendments, the Constitution is largely silent about who gets to vote.

    Who, then, gets to decide whether someone is qualified to vote? No matter the election, the answer is always the same – the states.

    Indeed, by constitutional design, the states are tasked with setting voter-eligibility requirements – a product of our federalist system. For state and local elections, the 10th Amendment grants states the power to regulate their internal elections as they see fit.

    States also get to decide who may vote in federal elections, which include both presidential and congressional elections.

    When it comes to presidential elections, for instance, states have – as I have previously written – exclusive power under the Constitution’s Electors Clause to decide how to conduct presidential elections within their borders, including who gets to vote in them.

    The states wield similar authority for congressional elections. Namely, according to Article I of the Constitution and the Constitution’s 17th Amendment, if someone can vote in their state’s legislative elections, they are entitled to vote in its congressional elections, too.

    Conversely, the Constitution provides Congress zero authority to govern voter-eligibility requirements in federal elections. Indeed, in the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2013 ruling on the Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council case, the court asserted that nothing in the Constitution “lends itself to the view that voting qualifications in federal elections are to be set by Congress.”

    Is the SAVE Act constitutional?

    The SAVE Act presents a constitutional dilemma. By requiring individuals to show documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register for federal elections, the SAVE Act is implicitly saying that someone must be a U.S. citizen to vote in federal elections.

    In other words, Congress would be instituting a qualification to vote, a power that the Constitution leaves exclusively to the states.

    Indeed, while all states currently limit voting rights to citizens, legal noncitizen voting is not without precedent. As multiple scholars have noted, at least 19 states extended voting rights to free male “inhabitants,” including noncitizens, starting from our country’s founding up to and throughout the 19th century.

    Today, over 20 municipalities across the country, as well as the District of Columbia, allow permanent noncitizen residents to vote in local elections.

    Any state these days could similarly extend the right to vote in state and federal elections to permanent noncitizen residents. This is within their constitutional prerogative. And if this were to happen, there could be a conflict between that state’s voter-eligibility laws and the SAVE Act.

    Normally, when state and federal laws conflict, the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause mandates that federal law prevails.

    Yet, in this instance, where Congress has no actual authority to implement voter qualifications, the SAVE Act would seem to have no constitutional leg on which to stand.

    Reconciling the SAVE Act with the Constitution

    So, why have 108 U.S. representatives sponsored a bill that likely exceeds Congress’s powers?

    Politics, of course, plays some role here. Namely, noncitizen voting is a major concern among Republican politicians and voters. Every SAVE Act cosponsor is Republican, as were all but four of the 220 U.S. representatives who voted to pass it.

    When it comes to the constitutionality of the SAVE Act, though, proponents simply assert that Congress is acting within its purview.

    Specifically, many proponents have cited the Constitution’s Elections Clause, which gives Congress the power to regulate the “Times, Places and Manner” of congressional elections, as support for that assertion. Sen. Mike Lee, for example, explicitly referenced the Elections Clause when defending the SAVE Act earlier in 2025.

    But the Elections Clause only grants Congress authority to regulate election procedures, not voter qualifications. The Supreme Court explicitly stated this in the Inter Tribal Council ruling.

    Congress can, for instance, require states to adopt a uniform federal voter registration form, and even include a citizenship question on said form. What it cannot do, however, is implement a non-negotiable mandate that effectively tells the states they can never allow any noncitizen to vote in a federal election.

    For now, the SAVE Act is simply legislation. Should the Senate pass it, President Donald Trump will almost assuredly sign it into law, given, among other factors, his March 2025 executive order that says prospective voters need to show proof of citizenship before they register to vote in federal elections. Once that happens, the courts will have to reckon with the SAVE Act’s legitimacy within the country’s constitutional design.

    John J. Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Citizenship voting requirement in SAVE Act has no basis in the Constitution – and ignores precedent that only states decide who gets to vote – https://theconversation.com/citizenship-voting-requirement-in-save-act-has-no-basis-in-the-constitution-and-ignores-precedent-that-only-states-decide-who-gets-to-vote-252792

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI-generated images can exploit how your mind works − here’s why they fool you and how to spot them

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Arryn Robbins, Assistant Professor of Psychology, University of Richmond

    A beautiful kitchen to scroll past – but check out the clock. Tiny Homes via Facebook

    I’m more of a scroller than a poster on social media. Like many people, I wind down at the end of the day with a scroll binge, taking in videos of Italian grandmothers making pasta or baby pygmy hippos frolicking.

    For a while, my feed was filled with immaculately designed tiny homes, fueling my desire for minimalist paradise. Then, I started seeing AI-generated images; many contained obvious errors such as staircases to nowhere or sinks within sinks. Yet, commenters rarely pointed them out, instead admiring the aesthetic.

    These images were clearly AI-generated and didn’t depict reality. Did people just not notice? Not care?

    As a cognitive psychologist, I’d guess “yes” and “yes.” My expertise is in how people process and use visual information. I primarily investigate how people look for objects and information visually, from the mundane searches of daily life, such as trying to find a dropped earring, to more critical searches, like those conducted by radiologists or search-and-rescue teams.

    With my understanding of how people process images and notice − or don’t notice − detail, it’s not surprising to me that people aren’t tuning in to the fact that many images are AI-generated.

    We’ve been here before

    The struggle to detect AI-generated images mirrors past detection challenges such as spotting photoshopped images or computer-generated images in movies.

    But there’s a key difference: Photo editing and CGI require intentional design by artists, while AI images are generated by algorithms trained on datasets, often without human oversight. The lack of oversight can lead to imperfections or inconsistencies that can feel unnatural, such as the unrealistic physics or lack of consistency between frames that characterize what’s sometimes called “AI slop.”

    Despite these differences, studies show people struggle to distinguish real images from synthetic ones, regardless of origin. Even when explicitly asked to identify images as real, synthetic or AI-generated, accuracy hovers near the level of chance, meaning people did only a little better than if they’d just guessed.

    In everyday interactions, where you aren’t actively scrutinizing images, your ability to detect synthetic content might even be weaker.

    Attention shapes what you see, what you miss

    Spotting errors in AI images requires noticing small details, but the human visual system isn’t wired for that when you’re casually scrolling. Instead, while online, people take in the gist of what they’re viewing and can overlook subtle inconsistencies.

    Visual attention operates like a zoom lens: You scan broadly to get an overview of your environment or phone screen, but fine details require focused effort. Human perceptual systems evolved to quickly assess environments for any threats to survival, with sensitivity to sudden changes − such as a quick-moving predator − sacrificing precision for speed of detection.

    This speed-accuracy trade-off allows for rapid, efficient processing, which helped early humans survive in natural settings. But it’s a mismatch with modern tasks such as scrolling through devices, where small mistakes or unusual details in AI-generated images can easily go unnoticed.

    People also miss things they aren’t actively paying attention to or looking for. Psychologists call this inattentional blindness: Focusing on one task causes you to overlook other details, even obvious ones. In the famous invisible gorilla study, participants asked to count basketball passes in a video failed to notice someone in a gorilla suit walking through the middle of the scene.

    If you’re counting how many passes the people in white make, do you even notice someone walk through in a gorilla suit?

    Similarly, when your focus is on the broader content of an AI image, such as a cozy tiny home, you’re less likely to notice subtle distortions. In a way, the sixth finger in an AI image is today’s invisible gorilla − hiding in plain sight because you’re not looking for it.

    Efficiency over accuracy in thinking

    Our cognitive limitations go beyond visual perception. Human thinking uses two types of processing: fast, intuitive thinking based on mental shortcuts, and slower, analytical thinking that requires effort. When scrolling, our fast system likely dominates, leading us to accept images at face value.

    Adding to this issue is the tendency to seek information that confirms your beliefs or reject information that goes against them. This means AI-generated images are more likely to slip by you when they align with your expectations or worldviews. If an AI-generated image of a basketball player making an impossible shot jibes with a fan’s excitement, they might accept it, even if something feels exaggerated.

    While not a big deal for tiny home aesthetics, these issues become concerning when AI-generated images may be used to influence public opinion. For example, research shows that people tend to assume images are relevant to accompanying text. Even when the images provide no actual evidence, they make people more likely to accept the text’s claims as true.

    Misleading real or generated images can make false claims seem more believable and even cause people to misremember real events. AI-generated images have the power to shape opinions and spread misinformation in ways that are difficult to counter.

    Beating the machine

    While AI gets better at detecting AI, humans need tools to do the same. Here’s how:

    1. Trust your gut. If something feels off, it probably is. Your brain expertly recognizes objects and faces, even under varying conditions. Perhaps you’ve experienced what psychologists call the uncanny valley and felt unease with certain humanoid faces. This experience shows people can detect anomalies, even when they can’t fully explain what’s wrong.
    2. Scan for clues. AI struggles with certain elements: hands, text, reflections, lighting inconsistencies and unnatural textures. If an image seems suspicious, take a closer look.
    3. Think critically. Sometimes, AI generates photorealistic images with impossible scenarios. If you see a political figure casually surprising baristas or a celebrity eating concrete, ask yourself: Does this make sense? If not, it’s probably fake.
    4. Check the source. Is the poster a real person? Reverse image search can help trace a picture’s origin. If the metadata is missing, it might be generated by AI.

    AI-generated images are becoming harder to spot. During scrolling, the brain processes visuals quickly, not critically, making it easy to miss details that reveal a fake. As technology advances, slow down, look closer and think critically.

    Arryn Robbins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI-generated images can exploit how your mind works − here’s why they fool you and how to spot them – https://theconversation.com/ai-generated-images-can-exploit-how-your-mind-works-heres-why-they-fool-you-and-how-to-spot-them-246867

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tiny cut marks on animal bone fossils reveal that human ancestors were in Romania 1.95 million years ago

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Briana Pobiner, Research Scientist and Museum Educator, Smithsonian Institution

    Several fossils with possible cut marks from Grăunceanu, Romania. Briana Pobiner

    Looking again through the magnifying lens at the fossil’s surface, one of us, Sabrina Curran, took a deep breath. Illuminated by a strong light positioned nearly parallel to the surface of the bone, the V-shaped lines were clearly there on the fossil. There was no mistaking what they meant.

    She’d seen them before, on bones that were butchered with stone tools about 1.8 million years ago, from a site called Dmanisi in Georgia. These were cut marks made by a human ancestor wielding a stone tool. After staring at them for what felt like an eternity − but was probably only a few seconds − she turned to our colleagues and said, “Hey … I think I found something.”

    What she’d spotted in 2017 was our team’s first evidence that hominins butchered several animals at the site of Grăunceanu, in Romania, at least 1.95 million years ago. Before this discovery, those other cut marks from Dmanisi were the oldest well-dated evidence in Eurasia of the presence of hominins − our direct human ancestors.

    Other scientists have reported sites in Eurasia and northern Africa with either hominin fossils, stone tools or butchered animal bones from around this time. Our recently published research adds to this story with well-dated, verified evidence that hominins of some kind had spread to this part of the world by around 2 million years ago.

    Romanian site with fossilized animal bones

    A 1960s photo of fossil bones before they were excavated from the ground at Grăunceanu, Romania.
    Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology

    A little background on Grăunceanu: This open-air site was originally excavated in the 1960s, and researchers found thousands of fossil animal bones there. It’s one of the best-known Early Pleistocene sites in East-Central Europe. Many of the fossil animal bones are quite complete and at the time of excavation lay together as they were positioned in life. The original deposition was called a “bone nest” because of how densely packed the bones were.

    If you were to stand on the hillside surrounding Grăunceanu almost 2 million years ago, it would likely have seemed familiar: a river channel surrounded by a forest that fades into more open grasslands to the foothills. Occasionally that river floods its banks, inundating the valley with rich soils, providing nutrients for the plants that the resident animals feed on. All pretty familiar, until you look more closely at those animals: ostriches, pangolins, giraffes, saber-toothed cats and hyenas − in Europe!

    It’s the fossil bones of these ancient animal inhabitants that were excavated at Grăunceanu. Unfortunately, most of the excavation records and provenance data for the site have been lost. Even without those, though, the Grăunceanu fossils are so remarkably preserved that they offer up a wealth of paleontological information.

    A few years after finding those first cut marks, our team, including biological anthropologist Claire Terhune, zooarchaeologist Samantha Gogol, and paleoanthropologist Chris Robinson, spent several weeks carefully studying all 4,524 Grăunceanu fossils, looking for more marks.

    We examined all surfaces of every fossil bone with a magnifying lens and low-angled light. Most of these fossils have root etching on them − sinuous, shallow, overlapping marks made by plant roots that grew nearby. But whenever we saw a linear mark that looked interesting, we took an impression of that mark with dental molding material.

    Briana Pobiner and Claire Terhune take molds of marks of interest on Grăunceanu fossils.
    Sabrina Curran

    Confirming they’re cut marks

    We can’t go back in a time machine to watch when these marks were made. Yes, ancient human butchers wielding stone tools would leave marks on bone. But mammalian predators or crocodiles could also leave marks with their sharp teeth. Sediments in rivers could scratch any bones rolling around in the water. Large animals walking across the landscape could move and scrape bones with their steps.

    So how can we be confident that they’re cut marks? That’s where our zooarchaeologist collaborators Michael Pante and Trevor Keevil came in.

    Close-up of a cut-marked bone from Grăunceanu, Romania.
    Sabrina Curran

    Within the past decade, Pante developed a novel method for identifying the source of marks left on bones. The first step is capturing precise 3D measurements of the mark impressions using an advanced microscope called a noncontact 3D optical profiler.

    Then they compare the 3D shape data from the ancient marks with a reference set of 898 marks on modern bones made by known processes, including stone tool butchery, carnivore feeding and sedimentary abrasion.

    This new method adds to the more qualitative, descriptive criteria many researchers, including our team, use to make mark identifications. For instance, we consider things such as mark location: Is the mark near a muscle attachment site, where you might expect to find a cut mark if a hominin were removing meat from a bone?

    Based on our analyses, we determined that 20 Grăunceanu fossils are marked by cuts, with eight displaying high-confidence cut marks. Most of those marks are on fossils of hoofed animals, including a few deer; one is a small carnivore leg bone. When we could identify the type of bone, the cut marks are always in anatomical locations consistent with cutting meat off bones.

    Dating the site

    While the fossil species present can give us a rough age estimate of the site, we used uranium-lead (U-Pb) dating to get more precise age information. This technique relies on the fact that naturally occurring uranium decays over long but well-known periods of time to eventually transform into lead. Geologists use the ratio of these two elements like a radiometric clock to determine how old something is.

    When one of us, Virgil Drăgușin, asked geochemist Jon Woodhead to use U-Pb dating to estimate the age of the Grăunceanu fossils based on several small tooth fragments, he was reluctant. Teeth do not usually work well for this dating technique. But he agreed to a test run, and to his surprise the teeth he tried worked very well.

    Together with his colleague John Hellstrom, they calculated a much more precise date for the site. We now know the Grăunceanu site is older than 1.95 million years.

    All of this data together − the very well-calibrated and tightly clustered dates of the specimens plus at least 20 cut-marked bones verified both by qualitative and quantitative methods − provides very reliable evidence that hominins were indeed in Eurasia by at least 1.95 million years ago, even though there are no hominin fossils from Grăunceanu.

    An artist’s reconstruction of the Early Pleistocene landscape around Grăunceanu.
    Emi Olin

    Sometimes when we look through our magnifying lenses, it almost feels like we can peer into the past. That’s impossible − but we can piece together lines of evidence to paint a clearer picture of what happened in the past at Grăunceanu.

    Now, imagining the view 1.95 million years ago, we see scenes of deer cautiously drinking from the river, majestic mammoths in the distance, a herd of horses grazing, a saber-toothed cat stalking a large monkey, a bear teaching her cubs to hunt … and a small group of hominins butchering a deer.

    Briana Pobiner has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leakey Foundation, and the Wenner-Gren Foundation.

    Sabrina Curran has received funding from The Leakey Foundation, National Science Foundation, and Ohio University.

    Virgil Drãgușin received funding from CNCS-UEFISCDI (Department of Education, Romanian Government).

    – ref. Tiny cut marks on animal bone fossils reveal that human ancestors were in Romania 1.95 million years ago – https://theconversation.com/tiny-cut-marks-on-animal-bone-fossils-reveal-that-human-ancestors-were-in-romania-1-95-million-years-ago-249838

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Keir Starmer’s psychological profile is different from other prime ministers – and what it means for his dealings with Donald Trump

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Consuelo Thiers, Lecturer in International Relations, University of Edinburgh

    Flickr/10 Downing Street, CC BY-NC-ND

    The question “Who is Keir Starmer?” echoed across headlines before and after he took office in 2024. Despite leading the Labour party for years, his personality, leadership style and core motivations remained something of a mystery. Now in office, that question matters more than ever. In moments of crisis, a national leader’s psychology plays a decisive role.

    The UK faces a difficult foreign policy landscape. Post-Brexit Britain is still rebuilding alliances amid economic strain and Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency has put a more transactional, Russia-friendly approach in the White House. The UK’s balancing act has become even more precarious. Starmer must back Ukraine, strengthen ties with the EU and manage an unpredictable relationship with Trump. For any leader, it’s a high-stakes task.

    Traditional international relations theories often treat states as rational actors, with little attention paid to who is making the decisions. In this view, leaders are interchangeable; internal traits are “black-boxed” and considered irrelevant.

    But political psychology challenges this. Leaders are not all the same. How they perceive and respond to constraints – be they economic, institutional, or geopolitical – varies dramatically.

    Faced with similar conditions, different leaders make different choices. Their decisions are shaped by traits, motivations, emotions and deeply held beliefs.

    Starmer: psychologically different to other PMs

    Political psychology provides tools for assessing leaders by analysing their public statements. Since traditional psychological assessments are rarely feasible, researchers rely on at-a-distance methods, based on the premise that the way leaders speak and the language they use can reveal underlying traits, motivations and beliefs.

    One of the most widely used approaches is leadership trait analysis (LTA), developed by psychologist Margaret Hermann. It employs computational content analysis to systematically code language and produce comparable personality profiles.

    To reduce the influence of speechwriters, the analysis focuses on spontaneous material such as interviews and press conferences. The framework identifies seven core traits that are particularly relevant to foreign policy decision-making.

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    Applying this framework to Starmer’s public appearances since taking office reveals notable differences between his profile and that of the average UK prime minister.

    Of the seven core traits measured by the framework, Starmer scores within the typical range on task orientation, in-group bias, self-confidence, and conceptual complexity. But he stands out in three areas: distrust, belief in his ability to control events, and need for power. In these, he scores significantly above average.

    These traits suggest a leader who is confident in his influence, driven to shape outcomes, and inclined to assert control when faced with obstacles. Leaders high in belief in their ability to control events tend to be proactive and view challenges as manageable. When paired with a high need for power, this reflects a strong drive to steer the political environment, often through strategic manoeuvring and behind-the-scenes influence.

    These leaders test boundaries and thrive in direct, high-stakes negotiations. This combination has been seen in figures like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair.

    Compared with his most recent predecessors – Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – Starmer shares certain traits but also diverges in meaningful ways. Like Johnson and Sunak, he shows a strong belief in his ability to control political events and a high need for power.

    However, what sets him apart most clearly is his elevated level of distrust, which surpasses even Sunak’s. Research links this trait to risk-prone, uncooperative leadership styles.

    Distrustful leaders often view others as potential threats, are less inclined to compromise, and fall back on control rather than collaboration. It’s a hallmark of hawkish leadership and has been associated with costly policy errors, such as George W. Bush’s misjudgement of Iraq’s weapons capabilities.

    At the same time, Starmer differs from Johnson and Sunak in his greater cognitive complexity. He sees nuance, tolerates ambiguity and avoids black-and-white thinking.

    He appears more open to new information and more flexible in adapting his approach. While Johnson and Sunak were more people-focused and scored low on task orientation, Starmer brings a balanced leadership style, combining interpersonal awareness with a clear focus on results. He can build relationships while staying goal-driven – an essential combination in today’s global landscape.

    Starmer and Trump

    What does this suggest about Starmer’s potential relationship with Trump? While research on leader-to-leader dynamics is still developing, Trump’s leadership profile is well-established.

    He scores high in self-confidence, low in task orientation, places a strong emphasis on loyalty, and shows high levels of distrust. His self-confidence means he rarely seeks disconfirming information, often filtering reality to fit his beliefs.

    His low task focus reflects a preference for group loyalty over detailed policy. Combined with a deep suspicion of others, this results in a transactional, uncompromising leadership style centred on personal allegiance.

    This presents challenges for Starmer, whose high distrust and tendency to defy constraints could complicate efforts to build mutual understanding. Yet his adaptability, pragmatism, and balanced focus on people and tasks, combined with confidence in his ability to shape outcomes, may help him navigate this volatile relationship.

    His assertive style, however, could still surprise or alienate some supporters as he makes bold moves beyond expectations.

    Starmer’s leadership may lack the charisma or flair of his predecessors, but his personality profile reveals a distinct and consequential approach to power. Confident, strategic, and distrustful, he is not a passive figurehead but a leader likely to assert control, challenge limits, and drive his vision.

    When the stakes are this high, Starmer’s psychology may not just influence Britain’s path – it could determine it.

    Consuelo Thiers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Keir Starmer’s psychological profile is different from other prime ministers – and what it means for his dealings with Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/why-keir-starmers-psychological-profile-is-different-from-other-prime-ministers-and-what-it-means-for-his-dealings-with-donald-trump-254242

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How insects and the smallest animals survive Antarctica

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Dittrich, Senior Lecturer in Zoology, Nottingham Trent University

    Ruslan Suseynov/Shutterstock

    In Antarctica’s freezing depths, tiny creatures have mastered survival tactics that could unlock secrets to extreme cold resistance, with implications for science and medicine. Some of the most intense battles against the environment are waged by the smallest of creatures.

    When it’s cold, we, as warm-blooded (endothermic), animals simply put on a coat. Other endotherms, can be large, fat or furry to insulate their body from the cold.

    Generating your own body heat, however, requires a lot of energy. Insects do not do not do this. The heat they need for metabolism and growth comes from the environment. This is partly how they are so abundant around the world. They need less energy to grow compared with warm-blooded animals like mammals and are great at exploiting this advantage.

    Not being able to generate your own body heat is a problem for insects in cold places. They are at the mercy of the environmental temperature and can only grow, develop and feed when it is warm enough. Typically this optimum temperature is around 20°C.

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    Yet some insects survive when temperatures drop below freezing. Generally, when the temperature goes below 0°C this causes damage to animal cells and even death. This cell damage is what causes frostbite.

    Many insects use one of two simple strategies. Freeze tolerance or freeze avoidance.

    For example, they produce cryoprotectants, such as glycerol, which lower their freezing point. This allows the animal to undergo supercooling without freezing. Some generate antifreeze proteins that stop ice crystals from forming in their tissue.

    Mites are common in the Antarctic – there are hundreds of species. Some even live in the nasal cavities of penguins. Penguin noses provide not only a source of food for the mites that feed on the penguins’ dead skin cells, but also a warm environment.

    However, some Antarctic mites, which don’t rely on a host, such as Halozetes belgicae, are freeze-avoiding, using antifreeze compounds to lower the freezing point of their body to well below 0°C.

    One of the smallest land animals in Antarctica are the springtails, related to primitive insects but lacking some of the features we see in modern insects. For example, their mouthparts are internal whereas insects have external mouthparts. One springtail, Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni, can reach a temperature of -38°C before it freezes. It is a small species of only 1-2 millimetres in length but important for the Antarctic soil ecosystem, fulfilling an important function as a decomposer of organic matter.

    The midge species Belgica Antarctica, however, is the only true insect found in Antarctica. It endures many periods of sub-zero temperatures throughout its life and has some unique strategies to deal with the hostile Antarctic climate. This species takes two years to reach adulthood – which in insect time is quite the long while. Some insects such as aphids have multiple generations in a year.

    Belgica Antarctica can tolerate ice crystals forming in its body by minimising the damage they do to tissue. It can also lose water from its body through a semi-permeable outer membrane, removing molecules that could form into ice crystals.

    Perhaps among the most dominant animals in the Antarctic, and indeed anywhere on the planet, are the nematodes. This is a small worm-like animal, that lives in and on top of the soil. Some species like Panagrolaimus davidi can tolerate their body cells freezing. They can also undergo a dormant state called diapause by dehydrating themselves (cryptobiosis), which prevents ice crystals forming in their cells.

    Water bears can wait out the cold for decades.
    Oleh Liubimtsev/Shutterstock

    Another group that uses this method for dealing with the cold Antarctic climate are the tardigrades (also known as water bears). Freezing can extend the life of this animal. In fact, one tardigrade species known as Acutuncus antarcticus was frozen at -20°C and defrosted 30 years later with no ill effects.

    Invertebrates, make up an enormous proportion of all life on earth. There are so many species yet to be discovered, which could help us unlock more secrets to survival in the most extreme environments and how this can benefit humans.

    Freeze tolerance and avoidance strategies, can enhance our knowledge of cryopreservation for medicine and organ transplants, improve food storage, aid climate adaptation and drive innovation in biotechnology and materials science. Studying how these microscopic life forms endure extreme conditions could reveal secrets about the evolution of life on Earth and even offer insights into the future of cryopreservation.

    Alex Dittrich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How insects and the smallest animals survive Antarctica – https://theconversation.com/how-insects-and-the-smallest-animals-survive-antarctica-250314

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US tariffs will squeeze the UK economy. Could the government buy itself some breathing space?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics/Adjunct Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

    William Barton/Shutterstock

    “Iron-clad” and “non-negotiable” is how UK prime minister Keir Starmer recently described the country’s fiscal rules. The government has been coming under pressure to relax the rules and cut itself some financial slack. But according to the PM, these self-imposed restrictions are vital for maintaining UK economic stability.

    What Starmer is referring to is notably the “stability” rule, which says that the UK will balance day-to-day public spending with tax receipts, rather than by borrowing, over the course of the parliament.

    But the volatility unleashed by US president Donald Trump’s tariff plans has challenged this rule. US tariffs could have a significant economic impact on the UK and the world economies.

    Indeed, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that 10% across-the-board tariffs, if they ultimately result in retaliation from China and the EU, could cut global economic growth by 0.5% in 2026.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences. Join The Conversation for free today.

    Unsurprisingly, the UK’s independent economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), estimates a similar impact on the UK. It predicts that if the trade wars result in 20% tariff rates between the US and the rest of the world, it could reduce economic growth by as much as 1%. This, it says, could slash the expected UK budget surplus in 2029-30 to “almost zero”.

    And herein lies the challenge for the UK’s fiscal rules. Due to the stability rule, a cut to GDP growth would reduce the tax take. That would require either raising taxes or cutting public spending, due to the rule that this cannot be funded by borrowing.

    Fear that the government’s nearly £10 billion spending buffer will disappear by the end of the parliament puts pressure on the government to say how it would continue to stick to its fiscal rule. If it did result in spending cuts or tax rises, this could dampen economic growth and negatively affect people’s lives. And the decisions would have been taken on the basis of economic forecasts that may not come to pass.

    This is particularly true when the forecasts are based on US tariffs that were imposed and then paused in the space of just a week.



    Read more:
    Hopes of a ‘Brexit benefit’ from tariffs were short-lived. Here’s what Trump’s pause means for the UK

    This problem was also evident in the spring statement in March, when the chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, announced spending cuts because the GDP growth forecast had been halved from 2% to 1% for this year.

    And the vast swaths of tariffs later announced by US president Donald Trump could have a similar impact on the UK’s growth rate.

    If the UK were to relax or abolish its fiscal rules, that may ease the pressure to react to a potential growth downgrade – which may or may not happen given the volatile nature of the US tariffs announced so far.

    The debt burden

    But the prime minister and the chancellor have both resisted this change. They are concerned about the UK’s credibility in the eyes of its creditors, who buy government debt in the bond markets based on their assessment of the fiscal position of the British government.

    The UK, like other advanced economies, borrows from bond markets to fund its budget deficits. The government is concerned that with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 95%, creditors may be reluctant to lend to the UK. To do so, they might want to charge more.

    A higher interest rate on the UK’s national debt would of course reduce the amount available for public spending.

    The UK spends more than £100 billion a year on debt interest payments. This is more than it spends on education or investment.

    The amount increased rapidly in recent years due to the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. And, relatively speaking, the UK spends more money on paying interest on its debt than other G7 economies (3.3% of its GDP compared with the G7 average of 1.7% in 2022).

    Part of this is due to the UK having more inflation-linked debt than comparable economies. About one-quarter of the UK’s debt repayment is linked to inflation, which is double that of Italy, the next highest in the G7, at 12%. And, as everyone in the UK has experienced, inflation has been high in the past few years.

    High inflation over the past few years has squeezed consumers – as well as the government.
    Edinburghcitymom/Shutterstock

    This makes the UK particularly susceptible to movements in bond markets. For instance, if the UK’s borrowing costs were to decline by one percentage point, that would save £21 billion over five years. That’s double the current “fiscal headroom” (effectively the government’s spending buffer) that is at risk from US tariffs.

    Without knowing for sure how bond markets would react, it would be challenging for the government to change its fiscal rules. But it’s also challenging to apply the stability rule during times of high volatility like this. Given the unpredictable nature of the US tariff regime, this debate is likely to go on for some time.

    Linda Yueh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US tariffs will squeeze the UK economy. Could the government buy itself some breathing space? – https://theconversation.com/us-tariffs-will-squeeze-the-uk-economy-could-the-government-buy-itself-some-breathing-space-254347

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –