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  • MIL-OSI Global: AI, cryptocurrencies and data privacy: Comparing the Trump and Harris records on technology regulation

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Anjana Susarla, Professor of Information Systems, Michigan State University

    The Federal Trade Commission is one of the main venues for government regulation of big tech and its wares. Alpha Photo/Flickr, CC BY-NC

    It’s not surprising that technology regulation is an important issue in the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign.

    The past decade has seen advanced technologies, from social media algorithms to large language model artificial intelligence systems, profoundly affect society. These changes, which spanned the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations, spurred calls for the federal government to regulate the technologies and the powerful corporations that wield them.

    As a researcher of information systems and AI, I examined both candidates’ records on technology regulation. Here are the important differences.

    Algorithmic harms

    With artificial intelligence now widespread, governments worldwide are grappling with how to regulate various aspects of the technology. The candidates offer different visions for U.S. AI policy. One area where there is a stark difference is in recognizing and addressing algorithmic harms from the widespread use of AI technology.

    AI affects your life in ways that might escape your notice. Biases in algorithms used for lending and hiring decisions could end up reinforcing a vicious cycle of discrimination. For example, a student who can’t get a loan for college would then be less likely to get the education needed to pull herself out of poverty.

    At the AI Safety Summit in the U.K. in November 2023, Harris spoke of the promise of AI but also the perils from algorithmic bias, deepfakes and wrongful arrests. Biden signed an executive order on AI on Oct. 30, 2023, that recognized AI systems can pose unacceptable risks of harm to civil and human rights and individual well-being. In parallel, federal agencies such as the Federal Trade Commission have carried out enforcement actions to guard against algorithmic harms.

    President Joe Biden signs an executive order addressing the risks of artificial intelligence on Oct. 30, 2023, with Vice President Kamala Harris at his side.
    AP Photo/Evan Vucci

    By contrast, the Trump administration did not take a public stance on mitigation of algorithmic harms. Trump has said he wants to repeal President Biden’s AI executive order. In recent interviews, however, Trump noted the dangers from technologies such as deepfakes and challenges posed to security from AI systems, suggesting a willingness to engage with the growing risks from AI.

    Technological standards

    The Trump administration signed the American AI Initiative executive order on Feb. 11, 2019. The order pledged to double AI research investment and established the first set of national AI research institutes. The order also included a plan for AI technical standards and established guidance for the federal government’s use of AI. Trump also signed an executive order on Dec. 3, 2020, promoting the use of trustworthy AI in the federal government.

    The Biden-Harris administration has tried to go further. Harris convened the heads of Google, Microsoft and other tech companies at the White House on May 4, 2023, to undertake a set of voluntary commitments to safeguard individual rights. The Biden administration’s executive order contains an important initiative to probe the vulnerablity of very large-scale, general-purpose AI models trained on massive amounts of data. The goal is to determine the risks hackers pose to these models, including the ones that power OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT and DALL-E.

    Donald Trump departs from Washington D.C., on Feb. 11, 2019, shortly after signing an executive order on artificial intelligence that included setting technical standards.
    Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

    Antitrust

    Antitrust law enforcement – restricting or conditioning mergers and acquisitions – is another way the federal government regulates the technology industry.

    The Trump administration’s antitrust dossier includes its attempt to block AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner. The merger was eventually allowed by a federal judge after the FTC under the Trump administration filed a suit to block the deal. The Trump administration also filed an antitrust case against Google focused on its dominance in internet search.

    Biden signed an executive order on July 9, 2021, to enforce antitrust laws arising from the anticompetitive effects of dominant internet platforms. The order also targeted the acquisition of nascent competitors, the aggregation of data, unfair competition in attention markets and the surveillance of users. The Biden-Harris administration has filed antitrust cases against Apple and Google.

    The Biden-Harris administration’s merger guidelines in 2023 outlined rules to determine when mergers can be considered anticompetitive. While both administrations filed antitrust cases, the Biden administration’s antitrust push appears stronger in terms of its impact in potentially reorganizing or even orchestrating a breakup of dominant companies such as Google.

    Cryptocurrency

    The candidates have different approaches to cryptocurrency regulation. Late in his administration, Trump tweeted in support of cryptocurrency regulation. Also late in Trump’s administration, the federal Financial Crimes Enforcement Network proposed regulations that would have required financial firms to collect the identity of any cryptocurrency wallet to which a user sent funds. The regulations were not enacted.

    Trump has since shifted his position on cryptocurrencies. He has criticized existing U.S. laws and called for the United States to be a Bitcoin superpower. The Trump campaign is the first presidential campaign to accept payments in cryptocurrencies.

    The Biden-Harris administration, by contrast, has laid out regulatory restrictions on cryptocurrencies with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which brought about a series of enforcement actions. The White House vetoed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act that aimed to clarify accounting for cryptocurrencies, a bill favored by the cryptocurrency industry.

    Data privacy

    Biden’s AI executive order calls on Congress to adopt privacy legislation, but it does not provide a legislative framework to do so. The Trump White House’s American AI Initiative executive order mentions privacy only in broad terms, calling for AI technologies to uphold “civil liberties, privacy, and American values.” The order did not mention how existing privacy protections would be enforced.

    Across the U.S., several states have tried to pass legislation addressing aspects of data privacy. At present, there is a patchwork of statewide initiatives and a lack of comprehensive data privacy legislation at the federal level.

    The paucity of federal data privacy protections is a stark reminder that while the candidates are addressing some of the challenges posed by developments in AI and technology more broadly, a lot still remains to be done to regulate technology in the public interest.

    Overall, the Biden administration’s efforts at antitrust and technology regulation seem broadly aligned with the goal of reining in technology companies and protecting consumers. It’s also reimagining monopoly protections for the 21st century. This seems to be the chief difference between the two administrations.

    Anjana Susarla receives funding from the National Institute of Health

    – ref. AI, cryptocurrencies and data privacy: Comparing the Trump and Harris records on technology regulation – https://theconversation.com/ai-cryptocurrencies-and-data-privacy-comparing-the-trump-and-harris-records-on-technology-regulation-239676

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: During the American Revolution, Brits weren’t just facing off against white Protestant Christians − US patriots are diverse and have been since Day 1

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Adam Jortner, Goodwin Philpott Eminent Professor of Religion, Auburn University

    A detail from the Washington Monument in Philadelphia, sculpted by Rudolf Siemering. PHAS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    In 1770, Barnard Gratz of Philadelphia wrote to a friend complaining about a recent speech by King George III. Gratz, an American patriot, wrote that the speech “was such narishkeit” that it was “not worth the postage.”

    Narishkeit is Yiddish for “nonsense.”

    Gratz was one of hundreds of Jews who joined the American Revolution as soldiers and leaders: Gershom Seixas led his synagogue out of New York when the British invaded and led what was probably the first Jewish prayer group in Connecticut. Solomon Bush earned the rank of lieutenant colonel in the American army; at the time, no Jew in Europe could serve as a military officer. At the battle of Beaufort, one of the patriot militias was nicknamed “the Jew Company” because 28 of its 40 members were Jewish.

    Yet belief persists that the American Revolution was somehow a Christian event – and that the country it created is therefore a Christian nation. This is a position usually defended with vague statements about what the Founding Fathers wanted. The general idea is that back in the day, everyone was Christian and so, of course, the founding was Christian. Yet neither the Declaration of Independence nor the Constitution refer to a “Christian nation” or a church. They don’t even mention Jesus Christ.

    Gershom Mendes Seixas, painted around 1784.
    Secret Egypt/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    But as a historian, I didn’t want to get caught up in these kinds of arguments. I wanted to know something about the people who actually did the fighting in the war.

    What I discovered is that when it came to fighting Britain, there were plenty of Jewish patriots signing up. America’s revolutionaries were not a uniform bunch of Christian white guys. The Revolution was a religiously diverse place, from Jews and religious skeptics to Catholics and Christian dissenters. And that matters for how the U.S. defines itself and its freedom today.

    Jews join the cause

    When the war started in 1775, the roughly 2,500 Jews in the Colonies did not have religious freedom. British law allowed them to practice, but they were classified as “residents” rather than subjects. They could live there, but they had no say in the laws under which they lived. For the most part, only property-owning Protestant men could elect or be elected to their legislature. Jews were simply not considered people the way Protestant Christians were.

    So when the break with Britain arrived, American Jews flocked to the standard of liberty. Here at last was a chance to become citizens.

    Under British rule, anyone who exercised political authority had to take an oath affirming their Christian faith. The pro-independence groups and militias that sprung up amid the war had no such rules. Mordecai Sheftall, who lived in Georgia, was one of the few people there who had pledged to resist the Coercive Acts: Britain’s efforts to blockade Boston and place Massachusetts under military rule after the Boston Tea Party. When the war broke out, Sheftall became chairman of Georgia’s de facto government, in defiance of British rule.

    Jewish residents took up arms for independence, too. A South Carolina writer praised American Jews fighting for liberty, saying they were “as staunch as any other citizens of this state.” One signer of the Declaration of Independence, Benjamin Rush, believed “the Jews in all the states” were patriots. So did royalist Gov. James Wright of Georgia. When the British seized Savannah, Wright banned Jews from the province, calling them “violent rebels and persecutors of the King’s loyal subjects.”

    When the war ended, Philadelphia hosted a parade and all the clergy of the city were invited, including Jewish leaders. There was even a kosher table set out for them after the celebration.

    ‘Second-status’ Christians

    Nor were Jews the only marginalized group to join the cause. Roman Catholics also signed up. Like Jews, Catholics were barred under the British from serving in public office. As a Catholic, Charles Carroll could not have served in the royal government of Maryland, but he went on to sign both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

    Charles Carroll, painted in the 1760s by Joshua Reynolds.
    Yale Center for British Art via Wikimedia Commons

    The Baptists of Virginia were also held in second-class status. The Colony’s state church did not recognize the Baptists, and they had to pay fines for preaching and even for holding Baptist weddings without state sanction. Virginia Baptists promised their support to the Revolution only if Virginia would offer them religious freedom. The Virginia Legislature complained but suspended its state church to build whatever support it could find. Virginia Baptists joined the fight in droves.

    Baptists, Catholics and Jews were not put off by any of the Revolution’s radical deists: a mostly unorganized group of religious thinkers who believed in God and reason, but not revelation or miracles. Their ranks included military officer Ethan Allen of Vermont, who later wrote a book denying the divinity of the Bible. The Revolution did not ask its members how they prayed.

    The urge for liberty spread beyond questions of religious differences. Although George Washington did not originally want to enlist Black men in the army, he realized the Revolution was doomed without them, and thousands of Black Americans joined the cause in the hope that liberty would mean the end of slavery. Women such as Deborah Sampson wore men’s clothing to take up arms against the British. The revolutionaries even had a Muslim ally in the form of Hyder Ali and his armies. The Muslim ruler of the kingdom of Mysore, in southern India, Ali fought with France against Britain in the 1780s, and American revolutionaries named a ship after him.

    Retired Marine Corps Col. Jonathan de Sola Mendes commemorates members of Shearith Israel, the congregation led by Gershom Seixas, who served in the American Revolution.
    Akiva123/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Here from the start

    In recent years, violence and anger have risen against minority groups, including Jewish and Muslim Americans. Part of the false rhetoric about these groups has been that they are “new”: that they appeared after America was created and are not really part of the American experiment. In fact, they were here from the beginning. They also fought for the Revolution. Their patriotism is as old as anyone else’s.

    Not only were the people who founded the nation not all Christian, but after independence was secured, religious freedom actually increased.

    States with synagogues all lost the Christian requirement for public office by 1792. Virginia created full religious freedom in 1786. And Washington wrote, “It is our boast, that a man’s religious tenets will not forfeit the protection of the laws, nor deprive him of the right of attaining and holding the highest offices that are known in the United States.”

    Calls for a Christian nation are historically false. They are not a reversion to something old; they are something new. Religious diversity in America, and the freedom of different religions to be full Americans? That’s old. As old as the Revolution.

    Adam Jortner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. During the American Revolution, Brits weren’t just facing off against white Protestant Christians − US patriots are diverse and have been since Day 1 – https://theconversation.com/during-the-american-revolution-brits-werent-just-facing-off-against-white-protestant-christians-us-patriots-are-diverse-and-have-been-since-day-1-238482

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What the history of blasphemy laws in the US and the fight for religious freedom can teach us today

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kristina M. Lee, Assistant Professor, University of South Dakota

    U.S. blasphemy laws reflect a complex fight for the freedom of religion and speech Getty Images

    Some 79 countries around the world continue to enforce blasphemy laws. And in places such as Afghanistan, Brunei, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, violation of these measures can result in a death penalty.

    While the U.S. is not among those countries, it also has a long history of blasphemy laws. Many of the U.S. colonies established blasphemy laws, which became state laws. The U.S. Supreme Court did not rule that blasphemy was a form of protected speech until 1952. Even then, it has not always been protected.

    As a scholar of religious and political rhetoric, I believe the history of U.S. blasphemy laws reflects a complex fight for the freedom of religion and speech.

    Early US blasphemy laws

    U.S. colonies often developed legal protections for Christians to practice their religion. These safeguards often did not extend to non-Christians.

    Maryland’s Toleration Act of 1649, for example, was the first Colonial act to refer to the “free exercise” of religion and was designed to protect Christians from religious persecution from state officials. It did not, however, extend that “free exercise” of religion to non-Christians, instead declaring that anyone who blasphemes against God by cursing him or denying the existence of Jesus can be punished by death or the forfeiture of their lands to the state.

    In 1811, the U.S. witnessed one of its most infamous blasphemy trials, People v. Ruggles, at the New York Supreme Court. New York resident John Ruggles received a three-month prison sentence and a US$500 fine — about $12,000 in today’s money — for stating in public that “Jesus Christ was a bastard, and his mother must be a whore.”

    Chief Justice James Kent argued that people have freedom of religious opinion, but opinions that were malicious toward the majority stance of Christianity were an abuse of that right. He claimed similar attacks on other religions, such as Islam and Buddhism, would not be punishable by law, because “we are a Christian people” whose country does not draw on the doctrines of “those imposters.”

    Several years later, in 1824, a member of a debating society was convicted of blasphemy by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court after saying during a debate: “The Holy Scriptures were a mere fable, that they were a contradiction, and that although they contained a number of good things, yet they contained a great many lies.” In this case — Updegraph v. Commonwealth — the court argued that it was a “vulgarly shocking and insulting” statement that reflected “the highest offence” against public morals and was a disturbance to “public peace.”

    By the end of the 19th century, a prominent free thought movement that rejected religion as a guide for reason had begun to emerge. Movement leaders embraced the public critiquing of Christianity and challenged laws that favored Christians, such as blasphemy laws and mandatory Bible readings in public schools.

    Unsurprisingly, as historian Leigh Eric Schmidt has noted, speakers and writers in the movement regularly faced threats of blasphemy charges.

    By this time, however, even in cases where freethinkers were convicted of blasphemy, judges appeared to offer leniency.

    In 1887, C.B. Reynolds, an ex-preacher who became a prominent free thought speaker, was convicted of blasphemy in New Jersey after he publicly doubted the existence of God. He faced a $200 fine and up to a year in prison. The judge, however, only fined Reynolds $25, plus court costs.

    While it is unclear why Reynolds was offered leniency, historian Leonard Levy suggests that it may have been to avoid making Reynolds a martyr of the free thought movement by imprisoning him.

    Protecting blaspheme as free speech

    Growing calls for religious equality and freedom of speech increasingly swayed blasphemy cases in the 1900s.

    In 1917, for example, Michael X. Mockus, who had previously been convicted of blasphemy in Connecticut for his free thought lectures, was acquitted in a similar case in Illinois.

    While expressing dislike for blasphemy, Judge Perry L. Persons argued that the court’s job is not to determine which religion is right. He said “the Protestant, Catholic, Mormon, Mahammedan, the Jew, the Freethinker, the Atheist” must “all stand equal before the law.”

    Then, in 1952, the U.S. Supreme Court heard the case of Joseph Burstyn, Inc. v. Wilson after New York rescinded the license for the film “The Miracle.” The film was deemed sacrilegious because of its supposed mockery of the Catholic faith.

    The high court ruled that states could not ban sacrilegious films. That would be a violation of the separation of church and state, it ruled, and an unconstitutional restriction on freedom of religion and speech.

    Even after the Supreme Court decision, Americans continued to occasionally face blasphemy charges. But courts shot the charges down.

    In 1968, when Irving West, a 20-year-old veteran, told a policeman to “Get your goddam hands off me” after getting in a fight, he was charged with disorderly conduct and violating Maryland’s blasphemy law. When West appealed, a circuit court judge ruled the law was an unconstitutional violation of the First Amendment.

    Despite these rulings, in 1977, Pennsylvania enacted a blasphemy statute banning businesses from having blasphemous names after a local businessman tried to name his gun store “The God Damn Gun Shop.” It was not until 2010 that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court deemed this statute unconstitutional.

    The decision followed a case in which the owner of a film production company sued the state after his request to register his company under the name “I Choose Hell Productions, LLC” was denied on the grounds that it was blasphemous. Citing the 1952 Joseph Burstyn, Inc. v. Wilson case, the judge ruled that the statute was a violation of First Amendment rights.

    A sign of democratic freedom

    As historian David Sehat highlights in his book “The Myth of American Religious Freedom”, since America was founded there have been strong disagreements over what religious freedom should look like. Blasphemy laws have been a key part of this clash.

    Historically, many Americans have viewed the laws as justifiable. Some believed Christianity deserved special protection and reverence. Others, including some Founding Fathers such as John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, have viewed the same laws as unconstitutional restrictions of free speech and religious expression.

    There has recently been growing attention to the rise of Christian nationalism, the belief that the United States is or should be a Christian nation. Amid this rise, there have been attacks on free speech, such as the increase in book bans and restrictions on public protests. I believe it’s important that we, as Americans, learn from this history of the fight for the freedom of religion and speech.

    Kristina M. Lee is a board member for the Secular Student Alliance

    – ref. What the history of blasphemy laws in the US and the fight for religious freedom can teach us today – https://theconversation.com/what-the-history-of-blasphemy-laws-in-the-us-and-the-fight-for-religious-freedom-can-teach-us-today-238173

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hemingway, after the hurricane

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Verna Kale, Associate Editor, The Letters of Ernest Hemingway and Associate Research Professor of English, Penn State

    Rescue workers search debris for victims of the Labor Day hurricane of 1935, a Category 5 storm that devastated parts of the Florida Keys. Bettman/Getty Images

    The 2024 hurricane season has been especially disastrous, and the casualties and widespread damage from flooding and high winds in towns like Cedar Key, Florida, call to mind another historic hurricane, the Labor Day hurricane of 1935.

    As one of the editors of “The Letters of Ernest Hemingway Volume 6 (1934-1936),” with Sandra Spanier and Miriam B. Mandel, I am reminded of the eyewitness account that the writer, then a resident of Key West, Florida, gave of the catastrophic storm that leveled Upper Matecumbe Key and Lower Matecumbe Key and took the lives of more than 400 people, many of them World War I veterans.

    Then, as now, the aftermath of a natural disaster included political finger-pointing.

    Today the debates center around how resources from the Federal Emergency Management Agency are allocated or how climate change contributes to the intensity of the storms.

    Back then, Hemingway had a different beef with the government, blaming the deaths of hundreds of World War I veterans on the failure to evacuate Upper Matecumbe Key and Lower Matecumbe Key ahead of the storm.

    The calm before the storm

    Hemingway was no stranger to hurricanes.

    A serious deep-sea angler who fished the waters off Florida, he kept an eye on weather patterns. Hurricane season was an anticipated, if dreaded, annual event.

    “Now the lousy hurricanes are starting,” he wrote his friends Jane and Grant Mason in June 1934. “Wish we would get lots of east wind and current … and then have a fine july and august without hurricanes.” Knowing that these conditions were unlikely, he jokingly asked the Masons “and what do you want for xmas Mr. and Mrs. Mason yourselves?”

    Ernest Hemingway was an avid fisherman. Here he poses with a marlin in Havana Harbor, Cuba.
    Ernest Hemingway Collection. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston.

    In a Sept. 30, 1934, letter, he wrote friends Gerald and Sara Murphy with hopes that he would get through the rest of hurricane season without incident: “no hurricanes yet […] if we get through the next 20 [days] are all right,” and he was glad that he “can fish without having to tie [the boat] up somewhere up some creek.”

    The next day, he wrote to fellow novelist John Dos Passos, “Hurricane months if you dont get a hurricane are fine.”

    ‘Not a building of any sort standing’

    But the following year, when the hurricanes did come, it was not fine.

    Over Sept. 2-3, 1935, a hurricane made landfall in the Florida Keys. Occurring in the days before storms were given names, the Labor Day hurricane, as it is commonly known, was the first recorded Category 5 hurricane in the U.S.

    It remains the third-most intense storm on record in the Atlantic basin, with a barometric pressure drop to 892 millibars and wind gusts exceeding 200 mph. Much of its damage was caused by the storm surge, and the Overseas Railroad, which had been completed in 1912 and connected the Florida Keys to the mainland, was destroyed and would not be rebuilt.

    After the storm, Hemingway wrote to his editor, Maxwell Perkins, describing its aftermath.

    Though communications were down and the island was cut off from the mainland, Key West had sustained relatively little damage.

    Upper Matecumbe Key and Lower Matecumbe Key, however, were a different story.

    “Imagine you have read about it in the papers but nothing could give an idea of the destruction,” Hemingway writes. “The foliage absolutely stripped as though by fire for forty miles and the land looking like the abandoned bed of a river. Not a building of any sort standing. Over thirty miles of railway washed and blown away.”

    Worse yet were the human casualties: He notes that the last time he witnessed so many dead in one place was in Europe during World War I as a Red Cross ambulance driver, adding, “We made five trips with provisions for survivors to different places and nothing but dead men to eat the grub.”

    A corpse floats in the aftermath of the hurricane.
    Ernest Hemingway Collection. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston.

    Many of the victims were veterans, employed by the Federal Emergency Relief Administration to work on the Overseas Highway construction project. Outraged by the federal government’s failure to send a train to evacuate the workers in time, Hemingway tells Perkins that the veterans “were practically murdered.”

    Federal administrators, he adds, “had all day Sunday and all day monday to get those vets out and never did it. If they had taken half the precautions with them that we took with our boat not a one would have been lost.”

    The letter contains graphic descriptions of the hundreds of dead bodies, rapidly decomposing in the Florida sun as they awaited transport to Arlington, Virginia, to be buried.

    ‘That smell you thought you’d never smell again’

    Hemingway would repeat many of these same details in an article published in the Sept. 17, 1935, issue of the leftist magazine The New Masses.

    The article, which Hemingway titled “Who Killed These Men?,” and which was re-titled by the editors as “Who Murdered the Vets?,” criticized the federal government for not evacuating the workers.

    “Who sent nearly a thousand war veterans … to live in frame shacks on the Florida Keys in hurricane months?” Hemingway asks.

    Hemingway, no stranger to the sight and smell of the dead from his experiences during World War I, was disgusted not merely by the bodies “swollen and stinking” but by what brought the veterans to the work camps to begin with.

    Skeptical of the various government programs of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal, Hemingway saw the Federal Emergency Relief Administration work camps as a way for Washington to conveniently rid itself of hundreds of down-on-their-luck veterans, many of whom were experiencing what we would now call post-traumatic stress disorder.

    “I would like to make whoever sent them there carry just one out through the mangroves, or turn one over that lay in the sun along the fill, or tie five together so they won’t float out, or smell that smell you thought you’d never smell again, with luck,” Hemingway writes.

    This impassioned response to the disaster in 1935 still resonates. Hemingway recognized that while storms are inevitable, mass casualties do not have to be. The government can’t control the weather, but it can fulfill an obligation to protect the most vulnerable in the path of the storm.

    Verna Kale works for the Hemingway Letters Project, which has been made possible in part by a major grant from the National Endowment for the Humanities: Democracy demands wisdom.

    – ref. Hemingway, after the hurricane – https://theconversation.com/hemingway-after-the-hurricane-241103

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could mean for the Middle East – expert Q&A

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    Israel has announced it has killed Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. Sinwar was apparently killed in a chance encounter on October 16 after a tank unit opened fire on a group of Palestinian men running into a building in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. His body was found in the rubble and later identified as the Hamas leader.

    It’s an important moment in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Sinwar’s death follows a campaign of assassination of top Hamas leaders by Israel since the latest round of hostilities began after the Hamas attack on Israel of October 7 2023.

    Middle East analyst Scott Lucas of University College Dublin addresses some of the key issues raised by Sinwar’s killing.

    How badly Sinwar’s death hit Hamas’s command structure?

    Just over a year after its mass October 7 killings inside Israel, overseen by Yahya Sinwar, Hamas as an organisation is in disarray. It is not just the killing of Sinwar in the chance encounter with Israeli forces in Rafah. Sinwar’s death adds to a lengthy roll call of top Hamas leaders during the past year.

    Principally, this includes Mohammed Deif, who planned the October 7 attacks, and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Beirut on July 31. These three are just the most prominent identities among a host of other senior officials and military commanders killed by Israel in Gaza or Lebanon.

    Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed, 49, is likely to take over military command. And veteran figures such as Khaled Meshaal – who led Hamas’s political bureau from 1996 to 2017 – remain. But they will struggle to sustain the organisation, particularly if the Israeli government presses its military advantage and continues to identify and assassinate Hamas’s high command.

    But that does not mean that Hamas as a movement is finished. Mass killing, even of its leaders, could galvanise it in the longer run. Those who survive will move up through the ranks, and the spirit of resistance and resentment could bring in more recruits.

    Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, can claim “victory” over Sinwar, Haniyeh and Deif. But victory over Hamas, particularly if Israel pursues an open-ended occupation in Gaza, may not be assured.

    What did Sinwar represent as a symbol of Palestinian resistance?

    For many in Palestine and beyond, Sinwar will be hailed as a martyr and icon of resistance. He was with Hamas from its first years, spent 22 years in an Israeli prison, and took command in Gaza from 2017. He never wavered in his belief that Hamas would prevail over Israel’s blockade, detentions, and military operations.

    But for others, Sinwar may be remembered as a divisive, even cruel figure. He built his career in Hamas on the killing of supposed “collaborators” with Israel. He was suspected of the torture and execution of rivals. And his leadership of the October 7 mass killings may be recalled as “resistance” which needlessly sacrificed the lives of tens of thousands and displaced almost 2 million of those whom he was supposedly representing.

    Does his death clear the way for a younger generation more amenable to a ceasefire deal and the return of the hostages?

    It will take months, perhaps years before we see where that “younger generation” will take Hamas. In the meantime, the interim political and military command of the battered organisation will face their immediate challenge. Can they still get some return, such as the freeing of Palestinians from Israeli prisons and the continued presence of Hamas in Gaza, in exchange for the release of the hostages? Or do they have to accept capitulation, possible expulsion, and Israeli occupation?

    Barring an unexpected change in the US position, putting pressure on Netanyahu, all the cards are in Israel’s hand for now.

    What’s Israel’s next move?

    Ask Netanyahu. He has the option of proclaiming “mission accomplished”. However, that will not be true for many Israelis as long as the hostages are not returned. Without that resolution, Netanyahu will run the risk of losing power if forced to an election and even the resumption of court proceedings over bribery charges if he halts military operations.

    Israel’s expansion of the war into Lebanon has improved his position to an extent. It has reconciled him with the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who was privately saying Israel had no “endgame” in Gaza. And it has improved his approval ratings.

    So it remains in his interest to continue hostilities in both Gaza and Lebanon. And indeed Netanyahu has signalled his intention to press on. But he has also said that while it is not the end, it is “the beginning of the end”.

    While Netanyahu may pay lip service to the resumption of ceasefire talks, that will likely be conditional on the expulsion of Hamas from Gaza. And with no clear alternative for governance in the Strip, that points – as with the West Bank – to indefinite Israeli occupation.



    Read more:
    Israel: what hardliners in Netanyahu’s government want from the war

    How will Iran respond?

    With the decimation of its Hamas and Hezbollah allies, Iran’s regime appears to have no good options at present. Amid economic and political problems at home and outmatched by Israel in military capabilities, the regime has avoided direct confrontation.

    Iran could continue to pursue “indirect” war through militias in Iraq and Syria attacking US personnel with rockets and drones, or with Yemen’s Houthis lobbing missiles at Israel and again threatening Red Sea shipping. It could expand cyber-attacks and its own attempted assassinations abroad.

    But those options would have little immediate effect, and would risk retaliation from the US and further isolation in the international community. The US is already using B-2 stealth bombers to attack Houthi bases in Yemen.

    So for now, Iran’s leaders and their spokespeople are likely to take the political route, condemning Israel and proclaiming that the “axis of resistance” will be strengthened through its losses.



    Read more:
    As its conflict with Israel escalates, could Iran now acquire a nuclear bomb?

    Can Washington now pressure Israel to do a deal with the Palestinians?

    This is perhaps the easiest question to answer. Unless the US cuts military aid to Israel or comes out for an unconditional ceasefire, it has little if any leverage with Netanyahu.

    How does this affect the US election campaign?

    Foreign policy is rarely a priority for most US voters, and even the mass killing of the past year is unlikely to change that. But on the margins of the US presidential election, the escalating toll in Gaza and Lebanon could alienate Arab American voters from the Democrats in Michigan, one of the seven states that will decide the contest.

    More broadly, the impression of Netanyahu pushing around a “weak” Biden administration could take hold. And in a toss-up election, those margins could be decisive.



    Read more:
    How the Middle East conflict could influence the US election – and why Arab Americans in swing states might vote for Trump

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could mean for the Middle East – expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/what-the-killing-of-hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar-could-mean-for-the-middle-east-expert-qanda-241699

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could mean for the Middle East – expert Q&A

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    Israel has announced it has killed Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. Sinwar was apparently killed in a chance encounter on October 16 after a tank unit opened fire on a group of Palestinian men running into a building in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. His body was found in the rubble and later identified as the Hamas leader.

    It’s an important moment in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Sinwar’s death follows a campaign of assassination of top Hamas leaders by Israel since the latest round of hostilities began after the Hamas attack on Israel of October 7 2023.

    Middle East analyst Scott Lucas of University College Dublin addresses some of the key issues raised by Sinwar’s killing.

    How badly Sinwar’s death hit Hamas’s command structure?

    Just over a year after its mass October 7 killings inside Israel, overseen by Yahya Sinwar, Hamas as an organisation is in disarray. It is not just the killing of Sinwar in the chance encounter with Israeli forces in Rafah. Sinwar’s death adds to a lengthy roll call of top Hamas leaders during the past year.

    Principally, this includes Mohammed Deif, who planned the October 7 attacks, and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Beirut on July 31. These three are just the most prominent identities among a host of other senior officials and military commanders killed by Israel in Gaza or Lebanon.

    Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed, 49, is likely to take over military command. And veteran figures such as Khaled Meshaal – who led Hamas’s political bureau from 1996 to 2017 – remain. But they will struggle to sustain the organisation, particularly if the Israeli government presses its military advantage and continues to identify and assassinate Hamas’s high command.

    But that does not mean that Hamas as a movement is finished. Mass killing, even of its leaders, could galvanise it in the longer run. Those who survive will move up through the ranks, and the spirit of resistance and resentment could bring in more recruits.

    Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, can claim “victory” over Sinwar, Haniyeh and Deif. But victory over Hamas, particularly if Israel pursues an open-ended occupation in Gaza, may not be assured.

    What did Sinwar represent as a symbol of Palestinian resistance?

    For many in Palestine and beyond, Sinwar will be hailed as a martyr and icon of resistance. He was with Hamas from its first years, spent 22 years in an Israeli prison, and took command in Gaza from 2017. He never wavered in his belief that Hamas would prevail over Israel’s blockade, detentions, and military operations.

    But for others, Sinwar may be remembered as a divisive, even cruel figure. He built his career in Hamas on the killing of supposed “collaborators” with Israel. He was suspected of the torture and execution of rivals. And his leadership of the October 7 mass killings may be recalled as “resistance” which needlessly sacrificed the lives of tens of thousands and displaced almost 2 million of those whom he was supposedly representing.

    Does his death clear the way for a younger generation more amenable to a ceasefire deal and the return of the hostages?

    It will take months, perhaps years before we see where that “younger generation” will take Hamas. In the meantime, the interim political and military command of the battered organisation will face their immediate challenge. Can they still get some return, such as the freeing of Palestinians from Israeli prisons and the continued presence of Hamas in Gaza, in exchange for the release of the hostages? Or do they have to accept capitulation, possible expulsion, and Israeli occupation?

    Barring an unexpected change in the US position, putting pressure on Netanyahu, all the cards are in Israel’s hand for now.

    What’s Israel’s next move?

    Ask Netanyahu. He has the option of proclaiming “mission accomplished”. However, that will not be true for many Israelis as long as the hostages are not returned. Without that resolution, Netanyahu will run the risk of losing power if forced to an election and even the resumption of court proceedings over bribery charges if he halts military operations.

    Israel’s expansion of the war into Lebanon has improved his position to an extent. It has reconciled him with the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who was privately saying Israel had no “endgame” in Gaza. And it has improved his approval ratings.

    So it remains in his interest to continue hostilities in both Gaza and Lebanon. And indeed Netanyahu has signalled his intention to press on. But he has also said that while it is not the end, it is “the beginning of the end”.

    While Netanyahu may pay lip service to the resumption of ceasefire talks, that will likely be conditional on the expulsion of Hamas from Gaza. And with no clear alternative for governance in the Strip, that points – as with the West Bank – to indefinite Israeli occupation.



    Read more:
    Israel: what hardliners in Netanyahu’s government want from the war

    How will Iran respond?

    With the decimation of its Hamas and Hezbollah allies, Iran’s regime appears to have no good options at present. Amid economic and political problems at home and outmatched by Israel in military capabilities, the regime has avoided direct confrontation.

    Iran could continue to pursue “indirect” war through militias in Iraq and Syria attacking US personnel with rockets and drones, or with Yemen’s Houthis lobbing missiles at Israel and again threatening Red Sea shipping. It could expand cyber-attacks and its own attempted assassinations abroad.

    But those options would have little immediate effect, and would risk retaliation from the US and further isolation in the international community. The US is already using B-2 stealth bombers to attack Houthi bases in Yemen.

    So for now, Iran’s leaders and their spokespeople are likely to take the political route, condemning Israel and proclaiming that the “axis of resistance” will be strengthened through its losses.



    Read more:
    As its conflict with Israel escalates, could Iran now acquire a nuclear bomb?

    Can Washington now pressure Israel to do a deal with the Palestinians?

    This is perhaps the easiest question to answer. Unless the US cuts military aid to Israel or comes out for an unconditional ceasefire, it has little if any leverage with Netanyahu.

    How does this affect the US election campaign?

    Foreign policy is rarely a priority for most US voters, and even the mass killing of the past year is unlikely to change that. But on the margins of the US presidential election, the escalating toll in Gaza and Lebanon could alienate Arab American voters from the Democrats in Michigan, one of the seven states that will decide the contest.

    More broadly, the impression of Netanyahu pushing around a “weak” Biden administration could take hold. And in a toss-up election, those margins could be decisive.



    Read more:
    How the Middle East conflict could influence the US election – and why Arab Americans in swing states might vote for Trump

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could mean for the Middle East – expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/what-the-killing-of-hamas-leader-yahya-sinwar-could-mean-for-the-middle-east-expert-qanda-241699

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Some people love to scare themselves in an already scary world − here’s the psychology of why

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Sarah Kollat, Teaching Professor of Psychology, Penn State

    A controlled scary experience can leave you exhilarated and relaxed afterward. gremlin/E+ via Getty Images

    Fall for me as a teenager meant football games, homecoming dresses – and haunted houses. My friends organized group trips to the local fairground, where barn sheds were turned into halls of horror, and masked men nipped at our ankles with (chainless) chain saws as we waited in line, anticipating deeper frights to come once we were inside.

    I’m not the only one who loves a good scare. Halloween attractions company America Haunts estimates Americans are spending upward of US$500 million annually on haunted house entrance fees simply for the privilege of being frightened. And lots of fright fans don’t limit their horror entertainment to spooky season, gorging horror movies, shows and books all year long.

    To some people, this preoccupation with horror can seem tone deaf. School shootings, child abuse, war – the list of real-life horrors is endless. Why seek manufactured fear for entertainment when the world offers real terror in such large quantities?

    As a developmental psychologist who writes dark thrillers on the side, I find the intersection of psychology and fear intriguing. To explain what drives this fascination with fear, I point to the theory that emotions evolved as a universal experience in humans because they help us survive. Creating fear in otherwise safe lives can be enjoyable – and is a way for people to practice and prepare for real-life dangers.

    Fear can feel good

    Controlled fear experiences – where you can click your remote, close the book, or walk out of the haunted house whenever you want – offer the physiological high that fear triggers, without any real risk.

    When you perceive yourself under threat, adrenaline surges in your body and the evolutionary fight-or-flight response is activated. Your heart rate increases, you breathe deeper and faster, and your blood pressure goes up. Your body is preparing to defend itself against the danger or get away as fast as possible.

    This physical reaction is crucial when facing a real threat. When experiencing controlled fear – like jump scares in a zombie TV show – you get to enjoy this energized sensation, similar to a runner’s high, without any risks. And then, once the threat is dealt with, your body releases the neurotransmitter dopamine, which provides sensations of pleasure and relief.

    In one study, researchers found that people who visited a high-intensity haunted house as a controlled fear experience displayed less brain activity in response to stimuli and less anxiety post-exposure. This finding suggests that exposing yourself to horror films, scary stories or suspenseful video games can actually calm you afterward. The effect might also explain why my husband and I choose to relax by watching zombie shows after a busy day at work.

    Going through something frightening together – like a haunted house attraction – can be a bonding experience.
    AP Photo/John Locher

    The ties that bind

    An essential motivation for human beings is the sense of belonging to a social group. According to the surgeon general, Americans who miss those connections are caught up in an epidemic of loneliness, which leaves people at risk for mental and physical health issues.

    Going through intense fear experiences together strengthens the bonds between individuals. Good examples include veterans who served together in combat, survivors of natural disasters, and the “families” created in groups of first responders.

    I’m a volunteer firefighter, and the unique connection created through sharing intense threats, such as entering a burning building together, manifests in deep emotional bonds with my colleagues. After a significant fire call, we often note the improved morale and camaraderie of the firehouse. I feel a flood of positive emotions anytime I think of my firefighting partners, even when the events occurred months or years ago.

    Controlled fear experiences artificially create similar opportunities for bonding. Exposure to stress triggers not only the fight-or-flight response, but in many situations it also initiates what psychologists call the “tend-and-befriend” system. A perceived threat prompts humans to tend to offspring and create social-emotional bonds for protection and comfort. This system is largely regulated by the so-called “love hormone” oxytocin.

    The tend-and-befriend reaction is particularly likely when you experience stress around others with whom you have already established positive social connections. When you encounter stressors within your social network, your oxytocin levels rise to initiate social coping strategies. As a result, when you navigate a recreational fear experience like a haunted house with friends, you are setting the emotional stage to feel bonded with the people beside you.

    Sitting in the dark with friends while you watch a scary movie or navigating a haunted corn maze with a date is good for your health, in that it helps you strengthen those social connections.

    Consuming lots of horror as entertainment may make some people more resilient in real life.
    Edwin Tan/E+ via Getty Images

    An ounce of prevention = a pound of cure

    Controlled fear experiences can also be a way for you to prepare for the worst. Think of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the films “Contagion” and “Outbreak” trended on streaming platforms as people around the world sheltered at home. By watching threat scenarios play out in controlled ways through media, you can learn about your fears and emotionally prepare for future threats.

    For example, researchers at Aarhus University’s Recreational Fear Lab in Denmark demonstrated in one study that people who regularly consumed horror media were more psychologically resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic than nonhorror fans. The scientists suggest that this resilience might be a result of a kind of training these fans went through – they practiced coping with the fear and anxiety provoked by their preferred form of entertainment. As a result, they were better prepared to manage the real fear triggered by the pandemic.

    When I’m not teaching, I’m an avid reader of crime fiction. I also write psychological thrillers under the pen name Sarah K. Stephens. As both a reader and writer, I notice similar themes in the books I am drawn to, all of which tie into my own deep-rooted fears: mothers who fail their children somehow, women manipulated into subservience, lots of misogynist antagonists.

    I enjoy writing and reading about my fears – and seeing the bad guys get their just desserts in the end – because it offers a way for me to control the story. Consuming these narratives lets me mentally rehearse how I would handle these kinds of circumstances if any were to manifest in my real life.

    Survive and thrive

    In the case of controlled fear experiences, scaring yourself is a pivotal technique to help you survive and adapt in a frightening world. By eliciting powerful, positive emotions, strengthening social networks and preparing you for your worst fears, you’re better able to embrace each day to its fullest.

    So the next time you’re choosing between an upbeat comedy and a creepy thriller for your movie night, pick the dark side – it’s good for your health.

    Sarah Kollat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Some people love to scare themselves in an already scary world − here’s the psychology of why – https://theconversation.com/some-people-love-to-scare-themselves-in-an-already-scary-world-heres-the-psychology-of-why-240292

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Robot developers keep making it seem like housebots are imminent when they’re decades away

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Carl Strathearn, Research Fellow, Computing, Edinburgh Napier University

    Threepio schmeepio. Tesla

    The walking, talking, dancing Optimus robots at the recent Tesla demonstration generated huge excitement. But this turned to disappointment as it became apparent that much of what was happening was actually being controlled remotely by humans.

    As much as this might still be a fascinating glimpse of the future, it’s not the first time that robots have turned out to be a little too good to be true.

    Take Sophia, for instance, the robot created by Texas-based Hanson Robotics back in 2016. She was presented by the company as essentially an intelligent being, prompting numerous tech specialists to call this out as well beyond our capabilities at the time.

    Similarly we’ve seen carefully choreographed videos of pre-scripted action sequences like Boston Dynamics’ Atlas gymnastics, the English-made Ameca robot “waking up”, and most recently Tesla’s Optimus in the factory. Obviously these are still impressive in different ways, but they’re nowhere near the complete sentient package. Let Optimus or Atlas loose in a random home and you’d see something very different.

    A humanoid robot capable of working in our homes needs to be capable of doing many different tasks, using our tools, navigating our environments and communicating with us like a human. If you thought this was just a year or two away, you’re going to be disappointed.

    Building robots able to interact and carry out complex tasks in our homes and streets is still a huge challenge. Designing them even to do one specific task well, such as opening a door, is phenomenally difficult.

    There are so many door handles with different shapes, weights and materials, not to mention the complexity of dealing with unforeseen circumstances such as a locked door or objects blocking the way. Developers have actually now created a door-opening robot, but robots that can deal with hundreds of everyday tasks are still some way off.

    Behind the curtain

    The Tesla demonstration’s “Wizard of Oz” remote operation technique is a commonly used control method in this field, giving researchers a benchmark against which to test their real advances. Known as telemetric control, this has been around for some time, and is becoming more advanced.

    One of the authors of this article, Carl Strathearn, was at a conference in Japan earlier this year, where a keynote speaker from one of the top robotics labs demonstrated an advanced telemetrics system. It allowed a single human to simultaneously operate many humanoid robots semi-autonomously, using pre-scripted movements, conversation prompts and computerised speech.

    Clearly, this is very useful technology. Telemetric systems are used to control robots working in dangerous environments, disability healthcare and even in outer space. But the reason why a human is still at the helm is because even the most advanced humanoid robots, such as Atlas, are not yet reliable enough to operate completely independently in the real world.

    Another major problem is what we can call social AI. Leading generative AI programs such as DeepMind’s Gemini and OpenAI’s GPT-4 Vision may be a foundation for creative autonomous AI systems for humanoid robots in the future. But we should not be misled into believing that such models mean that a robot is now capable of functioning well in the real world.

    Interpreting information and problem solving like a human requires much more than just recognising words, classifying objects and generating speech. It requires a deeper contextual understanding of people, objects and environments – in other words, common sense.

    To explore what is currently possible, we recently completed a research project called Common Sense Enhanced Language and Vision (CiViL). We equipped a robot called Euclid with commonsense knowledge as part of a generative AI vision and language system to assist people in preparing recipes. To do this, we had to create commonsense knowledge databases using real-world problem-solving examples enacted by students.

    Euclid could explain complicated steps in recipes, give suggestions when things went wrong, and even point people to locations in the kitchen where utensils and tools might typically be found. Yet there were still issues, such as what to do if someone has a bad allergic reaction while cooking. The problem is that it’s almost impossible to handle every possible scenario, yet that’s what true common sense entails.

    This fundamental aspect of AI has got somewhat lost in humanoid robots over the years. Generated speech, realistic facial expressions, telemetric controls, even the ability to play games such as “rock paper scissors” are all impressive. But the novelty soon wears off if the robots are not actually capable of doing anything useful on their own.

    This isn’t to say that significant progress isn’t being made toward autonomous humanoid robots. There’s impressive work going on into robotic nervous systems to give robots more senses for learning, for instance. It’s just not usually given the same amount of press attention as the big unveilings.

    The data deficit

    Another key challenge is the lack of real-world data to train AI systems, since online data doesn’t always accurately represent the real-world conditions necessary for training our robots well enough. We have yet to find an effective way of collecting this real-world data in large enough quantities to get good results. However, this may change soon if we can access it from technologies such as Alexa and Meta Ray-Bans.

    Nonetheless, the reality is that we’re still perhaps decades away from developing multimodal humanoid robots with advanced social AI that are capable of helping around the house. Maybe in the meantime we’ll be offered robots controlled remotely from a command centre. Will we want them, though?

    In the meantime, it’s also more important that we focus our efforts on creating robots for roles that can support people who urgently need help now. Examples would include healthcare, where there are long waiting lists and understaffed hospitals; and education, to offer a way for overanxious or severely ill children to participate in classrooms remotely. We also need better transparency, legislation and publicly available testing, so that everyone can tell fact from fiction and help build public trust for when the robots eventually do arrive.

    Dimitra Gkatzia receives funding from EPSRC.

    Carl Strathearn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Robot developers keep making it seem like housebots are imminent when they’re decades away – https://theconversation.com/robot-developers-keep-making-it-seem-like-housebots-are-imminent-when-theyre-decades-away-241638

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Vaccinating care home residents reduced deaths, but the effect was small – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Paton, Chair of Industrial Economics, Nottingham University Business School, University of Nottingham

    Vaccinating older people probably did avert some deaths in 2021, but the effects were small. And even those small effects on mortality seem to have dissipated during the booster programme. That’s the conclusion of our new study, published in the European Economic Review.

    COVID-related deaths decreased significantly in most of Europe and the US from the middle of 2021. Although this reduction coincided with the rollout of COVID vaccines, it has proved surprisingly difficult to identify the extent to which vaccination contributed to the drop in deaths.

    Randomised controlled trials (the gold standard for testing new treatments) suggest COVID vaccination can provide significant protection against serious illness and death relative to unvaccinated people who have not previously been infected with COVID. But there are reasons the effect of vaccination on mortality may be lower when viewed outside of trials.

    Early in the programme, there were hopes that vaccination would also prove highly effective in preventing the spread of COVID but it has since become clear that vaccination provides only limited and short-term protection against infection and transmission.

    It is also well established that a previous infection provides protection both against reinfection and against serious illness and death in the event of reinfection that is at least as effective as vaccination. Having a previous infection significantly reduces the likelihood of being vaccinated meaning the vaccinated population will include a relatively high proportion of people without protection from prior infection. So even if vaccination provides protection at an individual level, we may still observe population-level mortality rates that are similar for vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.

    The effectiveness of vaccination programmes may also be limited by people’s behaviour. For example, there is evidence that vaccinated people who get infected are more likely to have mild symptoms and this may cause them to take fewer precautions than others against spreading infection. As a result, vaccination may sometimes be associated with more rather than less transmission.

    Taken together, even if vaccination reduces the risk on an individual basis, it does not necessarily follow that it will reduce deaths at a population level. Existing research reflects this ambiguity with some research finding very significant effects of vaccination on death while other findings conclude there was little or no effect at all.

    Our new study attempts to improve our knowledge about the effect of COVID vaccination programmes by estimating the effect of vaccination take up on deaths in care homes. This is a particularly important group to examine. Given that the vast majority of COVID-related deaths occur in the elderly, any effect on deaths is highly likely to be seen in care homes.

    Machine learning used to analyse the data

    We examined deaths from COVID in care homes across nearly 150 local authorities in England from the start of the vaccine rollout in December 2020 until after the second booster dose in summer 2022. We tested whether higher rates of vaccination of staff and elderly residents led to fewer deaths both in total and from COVID.

    One feature of our research is the use of machine learning (a type of artificial intelligence) to isolate the effect of vaccination from other factors that may also have affected mortality including levels of prior infection as well as demographic, economic and health differences among local authorities.

    Machine learning is particularly adept at separating out the effects of a high number of potential explanatory variables, providing much better evidence of when associations represent true causal relationships. In contrast to some other research, we also use a measure of vaccination that takes account of the fact that effectiveness wanes over time.

    We found that higher vaccination rates of residents (but not of staff) did indeed lead to fewer deaths, but the effect was relatively small. For example, an increase in the resident vaccination take-up rate of 10% in a local authority caused, on average, a reduction of 1% in the total care home mortality rate. That is equivalent to about 22 fewer deaths per week nationwide.

    Of course, any reduction in deaths is welcome. But vaccination does not appear to be the key factor in reducing care home deaths from COVID. We also found that the reduction in deaths was restricted to the initial vaccination rollout.

    From September 2021, when the booster vaccination programme started in England, higher vaccination rates of elderly residents do not seem to have led to any reduction in deaths. Based on these results, vaccination is unlikely to have been responsible for the sustained fall in COVID-related deaths.

    Why then did Europe and the US experience large reductions in COVID deaths since 2021, even during times when infection rates have soared?

    There are two explanations. The first is the growth of variants such as omicron that, although highly infectious, are less deadly than variants responsible for the early waves.

    Second, is the rise in the cumulative number of people who gained protection from having had previous infections.

    These explanations are consistent with the experience of places such as Hong Kong, New Zealand and Taiwan. All saw relatively low COVID infections and deaths in 2020, meaning only limited levels of natural immunity had been built up. All then experienced high mortality rates during 2022, well after most people in those places had been vaccinated.

    For example, the seven-day average mortality rate in Hong Kong reached 40 deaths per million in March 2022, a rate far above the highest peak seen in the US during the whole pandemic despite cumulative vaccination rates at that time being similar.

    Even though vaccination probably reduced care home deaths by a small amount in the early rollout period, there is little evidence that the booster programme had any significant effect on COVID-related deaths.

    David Paton is a member of HART (Health Advisory and Recovery Team).

    Sourafel Girma does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vaccinating care home residents reduced deaths, but the effect was small – new study – https://theconversation.com/vaccinating-care-home-residents-reduced-deaths-but-the-effect-was-small-new-study-241300

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A brief history of the muses: the Greek goddesses who provided divine inspiration for ancient poets

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alison Habens, Head of Creative Writing, University of Portsmouth

    The muses in The Parnassus, a fresco by Raphael (1511). Vatican Museums, CC BY-SA

    In the beginning, there was just one, unnamed, muse. The blind bard Homer (a poet born around around 850BC) invoked her with the words “Sing, daughter of Zeus” in the first lines of his epic poem, the Odyssey.

    Then there were said to be three: Melete (practice), Mneme (memory) and Aoede (song), perhaps embodying the basic creative process of early humanity. Eventually, nine muses were identified, covering every branch of the arts, in the ancient Greek poet Hesiod’s introduction to Theogony, his epic poem about mythical stories and characters (circa 730–700BC). Hesiod, formerly an illiterate shepherd, claimed that he was inspired to write the poem when a beautiful goddess whispered the story in his ear.

    There were muses specifically for comedy, tragedy and even erotica. The oldest was Calliope, mother of the legendary musician Orpheus. Euterpe was the muse of music. Urania guided the scientists. Terpsichore taught dance.

    The muses promised fame and fortune to artists who followed them, but are rarely mentioned by name in the prologues and prefaces of artworks today.

    A timeline of the muses

    Originally characterised as singing and dancing goddesses guarding a sacred spring, evidence for the muses is found in writing by some of the earliest known authors.

    Hesiod and the Muse by Gustave Moreau (1891).
    Musée d’Orsay

    Yet, the muses existed long before reading and writing. It was only later that they were conscripted as the mascots of writers, with some ancient mosaics showing pens and parchment superimposed on their original images. Following their assimilation from the oral tradition into cheerleaders of literacy, the muses are seen waving pens and quills, scrolls and manuscripts in ancient artworks.

    Written storytelling about the muses started in the matriarchal period of prehistory, shifting to patriarchy in approximately 3,000BC, in Ovid’s story of the god Apollo fashioning himself the first laurel wreath. This crown of leaves, which supposedly signified his genius, is seen in the myth of Daphne, who turned into a laurel tree to escape Apollo’s unwanted advances.

    Written by Ovid in Metamorphoses, this picturesque tale may have been a metaphor for the switch from female to male authority. Legend has it that Apollo prevented his muse priestess from brewing, imbibing or smoking laurel leaves, which have a mild narcotic property.

    It wasn’t just fanciful poets in the muse’s congregation – philosophers kept the faith too. In approximately 370BC, Socrates classed “possession” by the muses as a form of divine madness like drunkenness, eroticism or dreaming: “He who, having no touch of the muses’ madness in his soul, thinks that he will get into the temple by the help of art – he, I say, and his poetry are not admitted.”

    Clio, Euterpe and Thalia, by Eustache Le Sueur (1652–1655).
    Louvre Museum

    English poet and soldier Robert Graves (1895-1985) agreed, writing in 1948 that his:

    ‘Inspiration’ was the breathing-in by the poet of fumes from an intoxicating cauldron, the Awen of the cauldron of Cerridwen, containing probably a mash of barley, acorns, honey, bull’s blood and such sacred herbs as ivy, hellebore and laurel as at Delphi.

    Changing times

    These original practices of using drink or drugs to inspire art are still in use around the world today. The muses may hold a pen in one hand and a smoke, or steaming mug, in the other – herbal remedies continue to be efficacious for writer’s block.

    In the Elizabethan period, when a poet’s relationship with the muses was perceived as directly proportionate to their success in romance, loving attention was paid to their invocation in rhythm and rhyme. But post-Enlightenment, it was no longer considered right for writers to invoke a supernatural mentor for literary endeavours. Modern men were influenced by reason and rationality, rather than a deity. Then it was more likely that a dead bard or scene from nature was deemed an appropriate source of inspiration.

    The nine muses on a Roman sarcophagus (second century AD).
    Louvre Museum, CC BY-SA

    Though writing remained a ritualistic practice, and its mechanisms sometimes mystical, the desk no longer doubled as an altar at which the author worshipped.

    Yet writers still often claim “the muse is with me” at moments when the words flow magically. Her voice can be heard in the modern Interval with Erato by Scott Cairns (2015), which name checks the ancient overseer of love poetry:

    That’s what I like best about you, Erato sighed in bed, that’s why you’ve become one of my favourites and why you will always be so.

    For the most part, the muses are missed off the agenda by both the microscope-gazers and the navel-gazers, these days. However, Plato did insist in his dialogue Phaedrus (370BC) that most people are eu amousoi (εὖ ἄμουσοι) an ancient Greek expression that means “happily without the muses”.

    Contemporary theories of creativity do not often mention divine inspiration. We no longer like the idea that the best stories are given to a few fated writers by God, that great plots and characters are bestowed on favoured authors by goddesses. But the answer to that common question all writers are asked – “where do you get your ideas from?” – still seems more mystic, less mathematic and as much supernatural as subconscious.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Alison Habens does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A brief history of the muses: the Greek goddesses who provided divine inspiration for ancient poets – https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-the-muses-the-greek-goddesses-who-provided-divine-inspiration-for-ancient-poets-239330

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rivals: the highs and lows of adapting a 1980s ‘bonkbuster’ for a 21st-century TV audience

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amy Burge, Associate Professor in Popular Fiction, University of Birmingham

    To much media fanfare and growing public anticipation, the Disney+ adaptation of Jilly Cooper’s Rivals (1988) begins on October 18. Cooper’s novel, first published in 1988, is a key “bonkbuster” text – a largely forgotten genre of women’s writing from the 1980s.

    Bonkbusters have three key components: they’re full of sex (the bonking) and wildly over the top in terms of storylines and characters, and they were extraordinarily popular (the buster part).

    However, like its televisual sister genre, the soap opera, the bonkbuster receded into the background of popular culture in the 21st century. So why is the bonkbuster having a cultural moment in 2024? What is the appeal of adapting a text like Rivals?

    We have been researching the bonkbuster genre for a couple of years, looking at its authors, themes and publishing history and talking to readers about their experiences with the genre, both at the time and now.

    Also known as the “sex-and-shopping” novel, the bonkbuster was a phenomenally popular genre of women’s writing in the 1980s and 1990s. Besides Cooper, authors like Jackie Collins, Shirley Conran, and Judith Krantz wrote about sex, marriage, friendship and scandal, against a luxurious backdrop of 1980s commercial excess.

    ‘A Milky Way when you’ve got a fridge full of posh chocolate’

    Cooper’s Rivals is fairly typical of the genre – one of the readers in our study, Samantha, aptly described it as: “a full-fat, fun, frothy novel set around class, privilege and horses”. It’s the second in Cooper’s Rutshire Chronicles, following Riders (1985).

    Rivals follows two competing television consortiums: Corinium, run by the villainous Tony Baddingham (played by David Tennant); and Venturer, set up by handsome Irish TV star Declan O’Hara (Aidan Turner), plucky Cockney businessman Freddie Jones (Danny Dyer), and notorious lothario Rupert Campbell-Black (Alex Hassell), as they bid for the local TV franchise.

    They are helped (and hindered) along the way by American TV executive Cameron Cook (Nafessa Williams), Declan’s actress-wife Maud (Victoria Smurfitt) and unhappily married author Lizzie Vereker (Katherine Parkinson).

    This might sound like fairly dry fare, but amid all the clandestine meetings and boardroom bust-ups, the characters fall in and out of love, have gleeful, adulterous affairs, and host lavish dinner parties, balls and naked tennis matches. Tory Rupert even finds time to be minister for sport – until Labour win the election.

    Great fun and very funny, Cooper’s books are famously tongue-in-cheek. However, the bonkbuster is also a product of its time – its references and values are, as study participant Samantha observed, “so 1980s”. What, then, is the appeal of books (and now TV shows) like Rivals?

    For some readers, the attraction is familiarity. Another reader, Hazel, said: “I don’t have that sense of ‘I cannot put this book down’ because I know exactly what’s coming. They’re so well thumbed, and all wrinkled at the edges because they’ve all fallen in the bath a few times.”

    Readers love the fantasy and escapism offered by the genre. As Hazel remarked, “It’s like still wanting a Milky Way when you’ve got a fridge full of Godiva chocolate … Sometimes you just want the sugary fluff.”

    There are much-loved characters: Declan O’Hara remains a firm reader favourite, and there is still a lot of affection for Freddie, the rough-diamond industrialist who has lots of money and a terrible wife. Readers also remember the romance between Rupert and Declan’s daughter Taggie (Bella Maclean) fondly, even as they raise an eyebrow at their age gap (Rupert is 37, Taggie 19).

    There’s also pleasure to be found in the setting. Cooper sets her novels in the cheekily named county of Rutshire, a fictionalised version of the Cotswolds, with vivid descriptions of stately homes and lush rural landscapes.

    The problematic 1980s

    But there are some aspects of the text that readers feel differently about, reading now, decades later. Some are simple: fashions have definitely changed, for instance, and the golden era of regional TV franchises has long passed.

    More complex, though, are some of the attitudes. While many readers still dearly love these books, they also note some elements that have not aged well: “The class issues … the sexism, racism, homophobia”, says Samantha. Cooper herself once noted that serial womaniser Rupert would probably be “locked up in prison”, post #MeToo.

    Readers in our study have particularly commented on the role of Cameron Cook in Rivals, a ruthlessly ambitious and occasionally unlikeable female American TV executive who is “caricatured as this ball-breaking go-getter,” according to Hazel. They wondered if the book were to be published today, whether Cameron would be written as a softer, more relatable character – and, perhaps, treated better by the men around her.

    Our readers were also acutely aware of the domestic violence in the book, which they found uncomfortable on rereading. Rivals has several instances of male violence against women, including one so severe the victim requires stitches afterwards – but still defends her attacker.

    While readers still find great pleasure in Rivals and other bonkbusters, they simultaneously negotiate some of these more problematic elements as they read the book again, trying to hold the 1980s and the 2020s in their minds at the same time.

    It seems likely that the Rivals adaptation will be a commercial success: not only does it build on an audience of loyal readers, but it is also receiving lots of positive early reviews as a hilarious escapist romp.

    Directed by Ted Lasso director Elliot Hegarty, and produced by soap director Dominic Treadwell-Collins, the series seems to be aiming for a blend of high-drama soap and quality production values. This is bolstered by the ensemble cast, including many well-known British actors.

    Yet, the novel remains inescapably a product of the 1980s, from its second-wave feminist values to characters’ concerns about Aids. As can be seen from the trailer – joyfully belting out Robert Palmer’s 1986 hit Addicted to Love – the adaptation is proudly retaining the 1980s setting. It will be interesting to see just how much of its 1980s values and attitudes remain.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Rivals: the highs and lows of adapting a 1980s ‘bonkbuster’ for a 21st-century TV audience – https://theconversation.com/rivals-the-highs-and-lows-of-adapting-a-1980s-bonkbuster-for-a-21st-century-tv-audience-241536

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Black Myth: Wukong – how China’s gaming revolution is fueling its tech power

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Shaoyu Yuan, Dean’s Fellow at the Division of Global Affairs, Rutgers University – Newark

    Black Myth: Wukong has enthralled gamers around the world with its rich visuals and vigorous fight sequences. Courtesy Game Science

    It may sound far-fetched, but the future of global technology supremacy could hinge on a video game.

    Black Myth: Wukong, China’s latest blockbuster, isn’t just breaking gaming records – it could be driving a critical shift in the global balance of technological power. What seems like just another action-packed video game is, in reality, a vital component in Beijing’s larger strategy to challenge Western dominance in the tech industry.

    The game, released by Chinese company Game Science on Aug. 19, 2024, is based on the legendary 16th century Chinese novel “Journey to the West.” The novel tells the story of a monk, Xuanzang, who journeys to India in search of Buddhist scrolls. The monkey Sun Wukong protects the monk by confronting and battling various demons and spirits.

    Black Myth: Wukong has captivated millions with its stunning visuals and storytelling. It quickly became a cultural sensation in China and abroad, attracting widespread attention and praise for its graphic fidelity and technological sophistication.

    As global affairs scholars, we see that the game’s success goes beyond the number of downloads or accolades. It’s what this success is driving within China’s technology sector that has far-reaching consequences.

    Video games and global power

    For years, China has been playing catch-up in the tech race, particularly in the production of semiconductors – the tiny microchips that power everything from smartphones to advanced artificial intelligence systems. The United States has maintained its dominance in this field by limiting China’s access to the most advanced chip-making technology.

    As of 2024, China has shifted away from its aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy to a more cooperative approach in order to rebuild international ties. The government has also issued mandates for companies like Huawei to develop domestic chips. However, China’s success in boosting semiconductor development and production using these approaches has been limited.

    Historically, video games have played a significant role in driving technological innovation in the semiconductor industry. From the early days of the 8-bit Nintendo Entertainment System to the modern PlayStation 5, gaming has always pushed chipmakers to develop faster, more efficient processors and graphics processing units, or GPUs. The intense graphical requirements of modern games – high resolutions, faster frame rates and real-time rendering – demand the most advanced semiconductor technology. The development of advanced GPUs by companies like NVIDIA was directly influenced by the gaming industry’s needs.

    Gamers require advanced processors to enjoy Black Myth: Wukong’s high-end visual and gameplay experience. Built using the state-of-the-art Unreal Engine 5 video game development tool, the game is a visual spectacle featuring lifelike graphics, seamless open-world environments and complex combat systems. The game is available for PlayStation 5 and PCs, and Game Science plans to release an Xbox version.

    Black Myth: Wukong features rich visuals and intricate gameplay.
    Courtesy of Sony Interactive Entertainment LLC

    As Black Myth: Wukong sweeps across gaming platforms, it not only puts pressure on China’s semiconductor makers to build more and better chips, but it also reveals the vast market potential for high-performance hardware, especially for gaming PCs equipped with powerful GPUs. The game’s success showcases just how big the demand is.

    Market analysts expect the Chinese video game industry to reach revenues of US$66.13 billion in 2024, compared with $78.01 billion in the U.S. Analysts predict the game will have annual sales of 30 million to 40 million copies in 2024.

    China’s gaming industry has surged into a global powerhouse, yet it remains dependent on foreign-made chips. Coupled with the West’s restrictions on chip exports, Wukong has become a key catalyst for China’s semiconductor development, and domestic companies now face growing pressure to innovate.

    This pressure aligns with Beijing’s broader technological ambitions. The government’s “Made in China 2025” plan calls for technological self-reliance, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, where China lags behind. And advanced GPUs haven’t been confined to the entertainment industry. They have become integral to advances in AI, including deep learning and autonomous systems.

    Flexing China’s cultural muscle

    While it might seem strange to link video games with geopolitics, Black Myth: Wukong is more than just entertainment. It’s a tool in China’s soft power arsenal. Soft power is nations influencing each other through cultural exports. For decades, the West, particularly the U.S., dominated global culture through Hollywood, music and video games.

    Now, China is flexing its cultural muscle. The success of Black Myth: Wukong abroad, where it has been hailed as a game-changing title, is part of Beijing’s strategy to export its culture and technological prowess. Millions of gamers around the world are now being exposed to Chinese mythology, art and storytelling through a highly sophisticated digital medium.

    ‘China Stay Winning’ American YouTubers react enthusiastically to Black Myth: Wukong. (Audio NSFW)

    But Black Myth: Wukong isn’t just a cultural triumph for China; it’s a warning shot. The country is taking advantage of its booming gaming industry to drive advances in a field that will define the future of technology. This game not only exports Chinese culture but also strengthens its tech base by accelerating the demand for domestic semiconductors.

    While Black Myth: Wukong entertains millions, it also shows China’s growing influence in the digital realm. In the future, we might not look back at Black Myth: Wukong as just a successful video game, but as a catalyst that helped China close the technological gap with the West. Beijing is playing a long game, and video games like Black Myth: Wukong are turning out to be effective weapons.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Black Myth: Wukong – how China’s gaming revolution is fueling its tech power – https://theconversation.com/black-myth-wukong-how-chinas-gaming-revolution-is-fueling-its-tech-power-239998

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bouncing between war-torn countries: Displacement in Lebanon and Syria highlights cyclical nature of cross-border refuge

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jasmin Lilian Diab, Assistant Professor of Migration Studies; Director of the Institute for Migration Studies, Lebanese American University

    Displaced people crossing a hole on the road caused by an Israeli airstrike near the Masnaa crossing. Bilal Jawich/Xinhua via Getty Images

    The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah since September 2024, and Israel’s bombing of civilian areas across Lebanon, have unleashed a profound humanitarian disaster.

    The mass displacement of over 1 million people, including Lebanese citizens, migrant workers and Syrian and Palestinian refugees, has created a crisis within Lebanon. Yet an equally significant phenomenon is occurring away from Lebanon’s southern border with Israel: the movement of people who have been displaced within Lebanon into Syria.

    An estimated 400,000 Lebanese and Syrians have reportedly fled into Syria through overcrowded border crossings.

    Not to be confused with return, this movement represents a reversal of the refugee flow that followed the descent of Syria into civil war in 2011. It is also emblematic of a broader pattern of cyclical displacement crises in the region.

    The complex and intertwined histories of Lebanon and Syria – where each has at various points been a refuge for citizens of the other – challenge the simple binaries often associated with the refugee experience.

    The exchange of roles between Lebanon and Syria highlights not only the fragility of regional stability but the fluidity of displacement – and the deeper implications that cross-border movement has on the sociopolitical dynamics of both countries.

    A history of reciprocal refuge

    The relationship between Lebanon and Syria has long been complex, oscillating between cooperation and tension. Despite Syria’s official withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005 after decades as an occupying force, the two countries remain connected due to shared borders, economic ties and security concerns. Cooperation exists in areas such as trade, but there is significant tension, especially over the presence of over 1 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

    Yet, throughout their modern histories, one of the most enduring bonds has been the shared experiences of displacement and refuge, dating back to Lebanon’s civil war. From 1975 to 1990, thousands of Lebanese fled to Syria to escape the sectarian-driven conflict that engulfed their homeland.

    The post-war period, however, was marked by a shift in the dynamics between the two countries. The 2005 withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon marked a new chapter in their relations.

    Tensions rose as Lebanon sought to rebuild and assert its sovereignty after nearly 30 years of Syrian occupation. Yet, the region’s tendency for upheaval soon saw the roles reversed again decades later, when an estimated 180,000 Lebanese took refuge in Syria during the 2006 July war.

    With the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, it was Lebanon’s turn to serve as a refuge. By 2015, 1 million Syrians fleeing violence made the journey into Lebanon.

    Despite being one of the 44 countries never to have signed the 1951 Refugee Convention, Lebanon is the country hosting the largest number of refugees per capita globally.

    Because Lebanon didn’t sign the convention, it doesn’t formally recognize refugee status, which gives the country what it views as more control over its refugee policies. While Lebanon receives humanitarian support from the United Nations’ refugee agency, refugees remain in a precarious legal status, with limited rights.

    For many Lebanese, this most recent influx of fleeing Syrian refugees has rekindled memories of their own displacement, while for others, it has fueled anti-refugee sentiments.

    Bouncing between 2 war-torn countries

    With the latest escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, history is again repeating itself. Lebanese citizens, primarily from Hezbollah strongholds in South Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, are seeking refuge in Syria, a country still grappling with its own economic collapse, violence and internal strife.

    While the conflict on Lebanese territory has gone on for more than a year, movements into Syria only picked up in late September 2024 as people have become more desperate to flee.

    As one displaced person forced to flee from Beirut explained to me: “Syria was certainly not a ‘better’ option than Lebanon six months ago, but in the last week, since the attacks on Beirut and political assassinations, Syria is safer – despite everything it is going through. That’s how unsafe we feel in Beirut – we are bouncing between one war-torn country and another.”

    Implications for refugee-host dynamics

    The cyclical nature of displacement between Lebanon and Syria overturns the prevailing political narrative of host-refugee dynamics being fixed and unidirectional.

    Syrian displacement to Lebanon has been portrayed by some Lebanese politicians as one-directional. This appears to be in order to frame Syrian refugees as the sole recipients of aid – as opposed to Lebanese citizens – as well as burdens on Lebanon.

    When displacement occurs in both directions, however, this narrative begins to break down.

    Syrian refugees who once sought safety in Lebanon now see their home country as a safer haven – albeit a fragile and temporary one. Meanwhile, Lebanese citizens face the same kinds of vulnerability and desperation that their Syrian counterparts experienced over the past decade.

    Importantly, testimonies from those who are making the trip from their ‘temporary’ home in Lebanon back to Syria highlight that these movements should not be mistaken for return. Rather, they are in themselves a temporary solution.

    As one Syrian who had fled his Lebanese home explained to me: “No, I am not returning. I am rather leaving one foot in Lebanon and one in Syria. Syria is in no way a safe place. As men, we are at risk of arrest and forced conscription. However, Lebanon is momentarily, at this point in history, much less safe. We do this assessment week by week. I sent my wife and my children first. I will follow.”

    For their part, internally displaced Lebanese entering into Syria insist that these movements are “absolutely temporary.” One told me: “Syria is not foreign to us. It feels close and familiar. But most importantly, it feels temporary and is the right proximity to Lebanon. As soon as things calm down we will come back to our homes. Many of us have nothing to go back to, but even in this case, we will not remain in Syria.”

    The strain of displacement

    Both Lebanon and Syria are, in many ways, ill-equipped to handle the new wave of displacement.

    Syrian children at a refugee camp in Lebanon’s frontier town of Arsal on Feb. 18, 2014.
    Ratib Al Safadi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

    By 2023, Lebanon’s economic collapse had driven 80% of its population into poverty, making it nearly impossible to absorb the additional strain of mass internal displacement.

    Government paralysis, compounded by political deadlock, leaves internally displaced people with little to no state support, mostly relying on aid and community networks to survive.

    Syria, though in the position of “host” in this current migratory flow, is similarly constrained. The country’s infrastructure remains devastated from more than a decade of civil war. Basic services are stretched thin, and the economy has not recovered. Humanitarian organizations coordinating the response are working amid overextended resources and dwindling support.

    A region in perpetual chaos

    As the armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, the displacement crisis in Lebanon and Syria will, I fear, likely worsen.

    The recent wave of Syrian refugees and Lebanese into Syria reveals the cyclical nature of refuge in the region. Ultimately, the ongoing displacement crisis in Lebanon and Syria serves as a reminder that refuge is often temporary, contingent on the shifting geopolitics of the region.

    The histories of these two countries, where both have served as havens for the other’s displaced populations, underscore the complexity of displacement in the Middle East.

    The fact that Lebanese citizens are now seeking shelter in Syria, a country from which over 1 million refugees fled just over a decade ago, underscores the volatility of regional displacement patterns. It also raises critical questions about the sustainability of international refugee systems that too often rely on static, one-directional models of migration and don’t account for the fluid and often reversible nature of displacement.

    Jasmin Lilian Diab does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bouncing between war-torn countries: Displacement in Lebanon and Syria highlights cyclical nature of cross-border refuge – https://theconversation.com/bouncing-between-war-torn-countries-displacement-in-lebanon-and-syria-highlights-cyclical-nature-of-cross-border-refuge-241168

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Overseas US voters get ignored by political campaigns − but could be crucial supporters

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, Honorary Reader in MIgration and Politics, University of Kent

    Election workers prepare to mail absentee ballots to Americans, including those living overseas. Allison Joyce/Getty Images

    One group of American voters is being largely ignored in the closely watched polling leading up to the Nov. 5 elections: U.S. citizens living abroad, whether as civilians or as members of the military. We know from governmental data that the number of ballots cast by overseas Americans has been greater than the margin of victory in races in the past – and may be again in 2024.

    But that one potentially crucial group of American voters – U.S. citizens living abroad – does not get much attention, from pollsters or campaigns.

    We are scholars of political science whose research shows that overseas voters can make a difference in elections – and that there is potential for campaigns to mobilize these voters, despite a more complex process of voting than for domestic voters.

    Who are overseas Americans?

    Though there is not an exact count of American citizens living abroad, we do know they number in the millions. Estimates from the Federal Voter Assistance Program and the Association of Americans Resident Overseas placed this number between 4.4 million and 5.3 million in 2023.

    But those are likely undercounts. It’s almost impossible to account fully for dual citizens, naturalized U.S. citizens who have returned to the country of their birth or people who split their time between the U.S. and other countries.

    Research that we and others have conducted indicates that Mexico and Canada are home to the largest numbers of Americans outside the U.S., followed by the U.K., France, Israel and Germany. The three most common reasons Americans move abroad are family connections, employment and quality of life, although there are others.

    Overseas Americans tend to be highly educated: More than three-quarters have a college degree, double the percentage within the U.S. Most overseas Americans do not move from country to country but rather stay in one country, often for a decade or more. But our surveys have found they remain interested in U.S. politics – not least because they pay U.S. income taxes, whether they work for a U.S. or foreign employer. IRS data shows that the vast majority are not ultra-wealthy.

    Voting from abroad

    Military members and U.S. citizens living abroad have had the right to vote in federal elections since 1976. This right was further consolidated in the 1986 Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, while the right for Americans living abroad to vote in local and state elections depends on state law.

    Some people have recently expressed concern that overseas voting could be used to cast fraudulent ballots, but there is no evidence of illegal voting by noncitizens abroad.

    Overseas voters’ absentee ballot requests and their returned ballots are carefully scrutinized by local officials in the state where they last lived in the U.S., making abuse very unlikely. But it is complex for overseas voters to vote: The paperwork is complicated, and there is comparatively little outreach from political parties and candidates.

    Barriers to voting from overseas

    In 2020, the Federal Voting Assistance Program, which is supposed to help overseas voters exercise their voting rights, estimated that just shy of 8% of eligible American voters overseas cast ballots in that year’s presidential election. Using program numbers to calculate a percentage another way finds that no more than 20% of overseas Americans cast ballots in the 2020 election.

    That’s far lower than the 67% national turnout rate that year.

    Federal law requires local election officials in the U.S. to mail absentee ballots 45 days before an election to overseas Americans who request them. Poor mail service in the U.S. and elsewhere can mean that voters don’t always get the ballots in time, and the ballots mailed back to election officials face similar delays.

    Some states allow voters to receive or return their ballots electronically, which is faster; an overseas voter casting a ballot in Massachusetts can request a ballot, receive a blank ballot and return it all by email, while an overseas voter from Pennsylvania must return it by mail or courier, following exact procedures for enclosing their ballot in multiple envelopes.

    In 2023, the Federal Voting Assistance Program estimated that as many as 150,000 U.S. citizens overseas did not cast ballots in the 2022 elections because of administrative hurdles, such as slow or irregular mail service and difficulties in communicating procedural changes to prospective voters abroad.

    Interest in US politics

    Another possible reason Americans abroad don’t vote is that they have lost interest in U.S. politics. But our own research, and the work of others, finds that not to be true.

    Even given the logistical challenges, U.S. citizens living in Canada, as one example, have very similar levels of interest in American politics compared with citizens back home.

    During the 2020 and 2022 campaign seasons, two of us surveyed American citizens who had moved north of the border. In 2020, 55% indicated they were very interested in American politics, as did 44% in the midterm year of 2022. This is comparable with levels of attention to politics within the U.S. during those campaigns, as gauged by the Cooperative Election Study.

    So although Americans in Canada indicated interest levels as high as those in the U.S. during the past two national election cycles, the vast majority of them did not cast a vote. Administrative barriers play a role, but they’re not enough to explain such low turnout among citizens overseas.

    Ignored by campaigns

    Another key factor driving low turnout from abroad is a lack of communication from campaigns and parties. Research demonstrates that contacts by campaigns and parties significantly increase a person’s likelihood of voting.

    In the U.S., parties and campaign organizations can help streamline the voter registration process, reinforce the stakes of an election and bolster a sense of camaraderie among citizens.

    U.S. citizens living abroad are unlikely to hear from campaigns, even in nearby Canada. When asked in 2020 or 2022 whether they had been contacted by American political campaigns, most potential voters in the U.S. had. But our surveys of Americans living in Canada show less than one-third reported contact from parties or candidates.

    Because overseas citizens vote in their last state of residence in the U.S. but are not physically resident there, campaigns find it harder to identify them as swing-state residents or members of favorable demographic groups.

    Overall, Americans living overseas are as eligible to vote as citizens in the U.S. They are as attentive to politics as Americans living in the U.S. On the other hand, they face major administrative hurdles and are generally not contacted by American parties or campaigns.

    James A. McCann has received support for his research on migration from Purdue University, the US Fulbright Program, the Russell Sage Foundation, and the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

    Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels and Ronald Rapoport do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Overseas US voters get ignored by political campaigns − but could be crucial supporters – https://theconversation.com/overseas-us-voters-get-ignored-by-political-campaigns-but-could-be-crucial-supporters-240184

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 4 ways AI can be used and abused in the 2024 election, from deepfakes to foreign interference

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Barbara A. Trish, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell College

    The American public is on alert about artificial intelligence and the 2024 election.

    A September 2024 poll by the Pew Research Center found that well over half of Americans worry that artificial intelligence – or AI, computer technology mimicking the processes and products of human intelligence – will be used to generate and spread false and misleading information in the campaign.

    My academic research on AI may help quell some concerns. While this innovative technology certainly has the potential to manipulate voters or spread lies at scale, most uses of AI in the current election cycle are, so far, not novel at all.

    I’ve identified four roles AI is playing or could play in the 2024 campaign – all arguably updated versions of familiar election activities.

    1. Voter information

    The 2022 launch of ChatGPT brought the promise and peril of generative AI into public consciousness. This technology is called “generative” because it produces text responses to user prompts: It can write poetry, answer history questions – and provide information about the 2024 election.

    Rather than search Google for voting information, people may instead ask generative AI a question. “How much has inflation changed since 2020?” for example. Or, “Who’s running for U.S. Senate in Texas?”

    Some generative AI platforms such as Google’s AI chatbot Gemini, decline to answer questions about candidates and voting. Some, such as Facebook’s AI tool Llama, respond – and respond accurately.

    AI’s response to an election query on Facebook.
    Screenshot from Facebook, CC BY-SA

    But generative AI can also produce misinformation. In the most extreme cases, AI can have “hallucinations,” offering up wildly inaccurate results.

    A CBS news account from June 2024 reported that ChatGPT had given incorrect or incomplete responses to some prompts asking how to vote in battleground states. And ChatGPT didn’t consistently follow the policy of its owner, OpenAI, and refer users to CanIVote.org, a respected site for voting information.

    As with the web, people should verify the results of AI searches. And beware: Google’s Gemini now automatically returns answers to Google search queries at the top of every results page. You might inadvertently stumble into AI tools when you think you’re searching the internet.

    2. Deepfakes

    Deepfakes are fabricated images, audio and video produced by generative AI and designed to replicate reality. Essentially, these are highly convincing versions of what are now called “cheapfakes” – altered images made using basic tools such as Photoshop and video-editing software.

    The potential of deepfakes to deceive voters became clear when an AI-generated robocall impersonating Joe Biden before the January 2024 New Hampshire primary advised Democrats to save their votes for November.

    After that, the Federal Communication Commission ruled that AI-generated robocalls are subject to the same regulations as all robocalls. They cannot be auto-dialed or delivered to cellphones or landlines without prior consent.

    The agency also slapped a US$6 million fine on the consultant who created the fake Biden call – but not for tricking voters. He was fined for transmitting inaccurate caller-ID information.

    While synthetic media can be used to spread disinformation, deepfakes are now part of the creative toolbox of political advertisers.

    One early deepfake aimed more at persuasion than overt deception was an AI-generated ad from a 2022 mayoral race contest portraying the then-incumbent mayor of Shreveport, Louisiana, as a failing student summoned to the principal’s office.

    Blink and you’ll miss the disclaimer that this campaign ad is a deepfake.

    The ad included a quick disclaimer that it was a deepfake, a warning not required by the federal government, but it was easy to miss.

    Wired magazine’s AI Elections Project, which is tracking uses of AI in the 2024 cycle, shows that deepfakes haven’t overwhelmed the ads voters see. But they have been used by candidates across the political spectrum, up and down the ballot, for many purposes – including deception.

    Former President Donald Trump hints at a Democratic deepfake when he questions the crowd size at Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign events. In lobbing such allegations, Trump is attempting to reap the “liar’s dividend” – the opportunity to plant the idea that truthful content is fake.

    Discrediting a political opponent this way is nothing new. Trump has been claiming that the truth is really just “fake news” since at least the “birther” conspiracy of 2008, when he helped to spread rumors that presidential candidate Barack Obama’s birth certificate was fake.

    3. Strategic distraction

    Some are concerned that AI might be used by election deniers in this cycle to distract election administrators by burying them in frivolous public records requests.

    For example, the group True the Vote has lodged hundreds of thousands of voter challenges over the past decade working with just volunteers and a web-based app. Imagine its reach if armed with AI to automate their work.

    Such widespread, rapid-fire challenges to the voter rolls could divert election administrators from other critical tasks, disenfranchise legitimate voters and disrupt the election.

    As of now, there’s no evidence that this is happening.

    4. Foreign election interference

    Confirmed Russian interference in the 2016 election underscored that the threat of foreign meddling in U.S. politics, whether by Russia or another country invested in discrediting Western democracy, remains a pressing concern.

    Special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into the 2016 U.S. election concluded that Russia had worked to get President Donald Trump elected.
    Jonathan Ernst/Pool via AP

    In July, the Department of Justice seized two domain names and searched close to 1,000 accounts that Russian actors had used for what it called a “social media bot farm,” similar to those Russia used to influence the opinions of hundreds of millions of Facebook users in the 2020 campaign. Artificial intelligence could give these efforts a real boost.

    There’s also evidence that China is using AI this cycle to spread malicious information about the U.S. One such social media post transcribed a Biden speech inaccurately to suggest he made sexual references.

    AI may help election interferers do their dirty work, but new technology is hardly necessary for foreign meddling in U.S. politics.

    In 1940, the United Kingdom – an American ally – was so focused on getting the U.S. to enter World War II that British intelligence officers worked to help congressional candidates committed to intervention and to discredit isolationists.

    One target was the prominent Republican isolationist U.S. Rep. Hamilton Fish. Circulating a photo of Fish and the leader of an American pro-Nazi group taken out of context, the British sought to falsely paint Fish as a supporter of Nazi elements abroad and in the U.S.

    Can AI be controlled?

    Acknowledging that it doesn’t take new technology to do harm, bad actors can leverage the efficiencies embedded in AI to create a formidable challenge to election operations and integrity.

    Federal efforts to regulate AI’s use in electoral politics face the same uphill battle as most proposals to regulate political campaigns. States have been more active: 19 now ban or restrict deepfakes in political campaigns.

    Some platforms engage in light self-moderation. Google’s Gemini responds to prompts asking for basic election information by saying, “I can’t help with responses on elections and political figures right now.”

    Campaign professionals may employ a little self-regulation, too. Several speakers at a May 2024 conference on campaign tech expressed concern about pushback from voters if they learn that a campaign is using AI technology. In this sense, the public concern over AI might be productive, creating a guardrail of sorts.

    But the flip side of that public concern – what Stanford University’s Nate Persily calls “AI panic” – is that it can further erode trust in elections.

    Barbara A. Trish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 4 ways AI can be used and abused in the 2024 election, from deepfakes to foreign interference – https://theconversation.com/4-ways-ai-can-be-used-and-abused-in-the-2024-election-from-deepfakes-to-foreign-interference-239878

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Philly hospitals test new strategy for ‘tranq dope’ withdrawal – and it keeps patients from walking out before their treatment is done

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kory London, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University

    Patients suffering withdrawal from fentanyl and xylazine can require intensive care. SDI Productions/E+ Collection via Getty Images

    Unimaginable pain and restlessness. Vomiting so frequent and forceful that it can perforate the esophagus. Blood pressure and heart rate so high that they damage the heart. Sweating that drenches clothing and sheets. Nerve sensitivity that makes even the softest touch agonizing. A prolonged panic attack that is provoked and worsened by even mundane activities and conversations.

    The withdrawal symptoms from “tranq dope” – the combination of the synthetic opioid fentanyl and the animal tranquilizer xylazine that dominates Philadelphia’s street opioids supply – tend to be far worse than those experienced by even the most severe heroin users of the past.

    So it’s no surprise that people will do whatever they can to forestall them. That includes walking out of the hospital before their care is complete.

    I’m an associate professor of emergency medicine who has spent a decade as an emergency physician working in Center City and South Philadelphia. I’ve spent most of that time directing projects to improve care for people who use drugs.

    Beginning in 2022, our team – a group of emergency and addiction physicians – began experimenting with new approaches to treating tranq dope withdrawal.

    We were able to reduce the likelihood of these patients leaving the hospital before treatment was complete by more than half – from 10% to just under 4%.

    We also reduced the severity of their suffering, lowering their withdrawal scores – or how they rate their pain and other symptoms – by more than half.

    Traditional treatments don’t work

    Before tranq dope, treating opioid withdrawal in the emergency department was relatively straightforward, with well-studied, conventional protocols.

    For patients without chronic pain, health care providers started buprenorphine, known by its brand name Suboxone, when patients showed signs of withdrawal.

    Buprenorphine works by partially, rather than fully, stimulating opioid receptors in the body. This subtle difference relieves symptoms of withdrawal but reduces the risk of overdose if patients continue to use other opioids. It quite literally saves lives.

    Tranq dope, however, created a much larger set of challenges.

    Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids are dozens to hundreds of times more powerful than heroin. Xylazine, meanwhile, adds symptoms of sedative withdrawal to the mix: restlessness, adrenaline activation and agitation.

    As synthetic opioids became pervasive in Philadelphia’s drug supply over the past decade, overdose deaths in the city tripled. Those numbers are beginning to decline, for reasons that remain unclear.

    Fear of withdrawal can even prevent people with serious medical conditions from going to the hospital.
    Jeff Fusco/The Conversation US, CC BY-ND

    Meanwhile, tranq users started to share buprenorphine horror stories. They refused the medication due to a phenomenon called “precipitated withdrawal.” Precipitated withdrawal is a condition in which taking buprenorphine paradoxically makes withdrawal symptoms worse, rather than improving them. Due to the severity of their symptoms, some patients who precipitate severely even require treatment in the intensive care unit.

    Furthermore, when patients did accept buprenorphine, their withdrawal symptoms were no longer being effectively controlled, even with very high doses. We were adrift.

    Patients demand discharge

    When people with severe substance use disorders are hospitalized, even compassionate staff members sometimes lose patience.

    Being confined to a stretcher in a loud, chaotic environment, in withdrawal, with prior traumatic health care experiences, can lead patients to act out. They might repeatedly hit call bells, use inappropriate language, make impulsive decisions or sneak drugs into the hospital.

    This creates a lot of stress for nurses and staff, and distracts from the care of others.

    So when patients demand to leave before treatments are complete, exhausted care teams often quickly acquiesce. Traditionally, this was termed leaving “against medical advice,” but is now called “patient-directed discharge.”

    Patient-directed discharge is associated with higher rates of mortality, permanent disability and rehospitalization.

    Rates of patient-directed discharge can be 10 to 50 times higher in people with an opioid use disorder compared with the general public.

    A cycle of mistrust can also form, where the expectation that a patient may leave again leads to a less engaged care team, which in turn can make patients more likely to leave.

    At staff meetings, some compared the challenges of caring for these individuals to those experienced in the hardest parts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    New approach needed

    Many physicians have been reticent to consider other options for treating opioid withdrawal. I believe there are two key reasons for this. One is the lack of Food and Drug Administration approval for alternative treatments. The other is that federal regulations consider addiction a behavioral rather than medical condition, effectively separating most doctors from the addiction care of these individuals.

    As fentanyl and xylazine became ubiquitous in Philadelphia’s street dope, local hospitals reported astronomical rates of patient-directed discharge among these patients. This was happening despite the best efforts of hospital staffs that are deeply experienced in conventional opioid withdrawal treatment.

    In 2021, an editorial in the Annals of Internal Medicine journal advocated for the use of short-acting opioids for some patients’ opioid withdrawal – which is already common practice in Canada. Short-acting opioids are medications doctors traditionally use to treat acute pain.

    Philadelphia hospitals started experimenting with using these previously verboten medications. That included our team at Jefferson Health.

    Overdose deaths in Philadelphia spiked as fentanyl and xylazine became more prevalent.
    Jeff Fusco/The Conversation US, CC BY-ND

    Oxycodone, hydromorphone and ketamine

    By using short-acting opioids such as oxycodone or hydromorphone, combined with a low-dose version of buprenorphine, we prevented precipitated withdrawal and treated opioid withdrawal and pain in our patients.

    The low-dose bupenorphine can be increased over time to steady doses. This shows patients that the medication is safe and provides them a bridge to long-term treatment.

    The short-acting opioids replace the opioids that their bodies are frantically searching for. They reduce their pain and misery, and are decreased when their symptoms are controlled.

    Patients with opioid use disorder will often do whatever they can to stay out of the hospital due to fear of withdrawal. Asking how withdrawal symptoms are managed, therefore, is often their first priority when hospitalized. We see this even when they have conditions that require complicated and time-sensitive treatments.

    Owing to the vast amounts of opioids many of our patients use, we also give them additional strong medications, or “adjunctive therapies,” to supplement the effects of the short-acting opioids and low-dose buprenorphine. One is ketamine, an anesthetic that affects nerve impulses and is increasingly being used to treat depression, post-traumatic stress discorder and substance use disorders.

    Ketamine is also an effective pain medication that can extend the effects of opioids and reduce the number of doses needed.

    We additionally add muscle relaxants – which work similarly to xylazine – along with nausea medications and IV fluids, to help give patients a chance at healing.

    Side effects and future problems

    In patients who received our medications, the risks of serious side effects were minimal. The few patients who suffered serious adverse effects had other acute medical problems that could have contributed to the side effects. Almost all the side effects we saw were mild and resolved on their own.

    As powerful synthetic opioids and other contaminants become pervasive in more U.S. cities, more emergency departments will need to figure out how to care for patients in withdrawal so that they don’t leave treatment.

    It is our hope that this work will inspire others to do a better job of providing relief to patients suffering from this complicated and severe condition.

    Kory London received funding from the City of Philadelphia to support the work related to caring for individuals with substance use disorder. He is on the board of the nonprofit Council of Southeast Pennsylvania, dedicated to helping those in need of behavioral health care and support.

    – ref. Philly hospitals test new strategy for ‘tranq dope’ withdrawal – and it keeps patients from walking out before their treatment is done – https://theconversation.com/philly-hospitals-test-new-strategy-for-tranq-dope-withdrawal-and-it-keeps-patients-from-walking-out-before-their-treatment-is-done-239915

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is Chabad-Lubavitch? A Jewish studies scholar explains

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Schneur Zalman Newfield, Associate Professor of Sociology and Jewish Studies, Hunter College

    Lubavitchers have put up leaflets, posters and even murals of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson around the world, with many proclaiming him the messiah. Nizzan Cohen via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    If you live anywhere near New York – or anywhere in the world, really – you may have seen a picture of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson. Yellow posters of the rabbi’s face are stuck to lampposts or streetlights: an elderly man with a long white beard and black hat.

    For tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews, Schneerson is simply “the rebbe”: the leader of the Chabad-Lubavitch movement, even though he died in 1994. The name “Chabad” is familiar to many Americans, but the actual beliefs of this Hasidic group rarely are.

    As someone who was raised in a Lubavitch community and became a scholar of sociology and Jewish studies, I am often asked what sets it apart from other Orthodox streams of Judaism.

    Mystic teachings, joyful prayer

    Hasidism began under the leadership of the 18th-century mystic and healer Israel ben Eliezer, known as the Baal Shem Tov. Instead of focusing on the Bible and Jewish law, the movement prioritized attaching oneself to God through joyful prayer and passionate devotion.

    The Lubavitch sect of Hasidism was founded in the late 1700s by Rabbi Schneur Zalman of Liadi, the author of the Tanya – a theological text and self-improvement manual still studied daily by Lubavitchers. For over a hundred years, the movement was based in the rural town of Lyubavichi, Russia, from which it derives its name.

    Lubavitch headquarters in Brooklyn, which many followers call ‘770.’
    Sagtkd/Wikimedia Commons

    Since 1940, however, Lubavitch has been based in Crown Heights, Brooklyn. The headquarters there at 770 Eastern Parkway are simply referred to as “770” by Lubavitchers the world over, who imbue the red brick building with mystical symbolism.

    Lubavitch, also known by the name “Chabad,” is one of the largest Hasidic groups today, with an estimated 90,000 members.

    Lubavitch shares many things in common with all streams of Orthodox Judaism, including a commitment to strictly abiding by “halacha” – Jewish law and customs. The group also shares a great deal with other ultra-Orthodox communities, such as opposition to providing their children with secular education.

    Yet there are key features of Lubavitch that distinguish it – particularly how much it engages with non-Orthodox Jews.

    The rebbe

    All Hasidic sects have a leader, a “rebbe,” who is believed to possess unique spiritual gifts and connect his followers to the divine. Still, Lubavitch is distinct in terms of the extent to which the rebbe is central to the lives of every single member of the community.

    In 1951, Schneerson accepted leadership of the Lubavitchers after the passing of his father-in-law and grew the movement exponentially until his passing in 1994. Rather than naming a successor, however, Lubavitchers have continued to regard Schneerson as “the rebbe.”

    With his piercing blue eyes, full white beard, black fedora and silk coat, images of Schneerson are ubiquitous among Lubavitchers. Photos and paintings of him adorn walls, key chains, clocks and charity boxes wherever they live.

    A baby clutches a photo of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson during a holiday celebration in front of the Chabad Lubavitch headquarters in Brooklyn.
    AP Photo/Mark Lennihan

    While the rebbe was alive, his followers would ask him for advice and blessings regarding all spiritual matters, as well as questions about health, business and marriage. Since his passing, followers continue to seek his blessings by placing notes at his gravesite and searching his printed works for guidance.

    Even among Lubavitchers who have left the fold, many still feel attached to its leader.

    Jewish outreach

    One expression of Lubavitchers’ devotion is their commitment to creating Jewish outreach centers all over the world.

    The ethos of sharing Hasidic thought was present from the founding of the Lubavitch movement. This drive became much more developed, however, during and after the Holocaust and continued under Schneerson’s leadership.

    Today, Lubavitch has established Jewish outposts, called “Chabad Houses,” from Melbourne to Hong Kong and Buenos Aires to Cape Town. These emissaries endeavor to reach out to secular Jews and inspire them to become more religiously observant.

    Members of Chabad participate in a Fourth of July parade in Santa Monica, Calif.
    AP Photo/Richard Vogel

    The language surrounding Lubavitch outreach often has a militaristic flavor – for example, its youth movement is named the “Army of God”: Tzivos Ha-Shem, in Hebrew. However, outreach is rooted in the commandment to love one’s fellow Jew and a desire to help them enjoy the Jewish tradition. It is also motivated by a belief that these efforts will help fulfill the biblical prophecy of a Jewish messiah, who will usher in a time of global peace.

    These two motivations fortify the nearly 5,000 emissaries sent to far-flung communities around the world, notwithstanding profound obstacles. These include being separated from their families, who tend to live in established Hasidic communities, and being vulnerable to antisemitic attacks.

    Messianism

    The most distinct aspect of contemporary Lubavitch is its enthusiasm for the coming of the messiah and its assertion that Schneerson is that long-awaited messiah, despite his death.

    Messianic hopes and people claiming to be the messiah have appeared at various points throughout Jewish history, often during periods of crisis. In the wake of the devastation of the Holocaust, however, Schneerson made the idea of the messiah’s coming integral to every aspect of Jewish life.

    Eventually, most followers came to believe that Schneerson was the righteous redeemer sent by God to usher in the messianic age. While Schneerson did not embrace these proclamations, he insisted that through additional acts of goodness and kindness it was possible to bring about the messianic redemption.

    While some outsiders criticized this emphasis, especially claims about the rebbe, the situation became much more fraught after he passed away in 1994. In response to this trauma, a split developed in Lubavitch.

    Praying men leave notes seeking guidance and blessings at the grave site of Menachem Mendel Schneerson.
    Bentzi Sasson via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    One camp, composed largely of those involved in outreach work and members of long-standing Lubavitch families, argued Lubavitch should stop publicly talking about Schneerson being the messiah since it scared away outsiders. The other camp, largely composed of those who joined the community as adults, claimed that he was still the messiah and was about to return, and that it was vital to tell the world.

    To some other Jews, this belief seemed suspiciously close to Christian faith in the second coming of Jesus. Still, many Lubavitchers persist in their messianic beliefs.

    The future

    This issue still divides some Lubavitchers. Nonetheless, since Schneerson’s passing three decades ago, the movement has increased in size and strength.

    The group’s cohesiveness has been aided by creative uses of technology to foster a sense of the rebbe’s continued presence in their lives. For example, the Jewish Educational Media organization regularly produces videos that splice footage of his talks with current visuals to make him feel present in the moment. Lubavitchers have reinterpreted Hasidic texts to fit their current predicament, helping them feel grounded despite his physical absence.

    While the precise future of Lubavitch is unknown, the fact that it has managed to weather the storm of the rebbe’s passing and emerged stronger gives his followers hope for the future.

    Schneur Zalman Newfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is Chabad-Lubavitch? A Jewish studies scholar explains – https://theconversation.com/what-is-chabad-lubavitch-a-jewish-studies-scholar-explains-222218

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is Temporary Protected Status? A global migration expert why the US offers some foreign nationals temporary protection

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Karen Jacobsen, Henry J. Leir Chair in Global Migration, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University

    Haitian students use mobile phones to record an exercise during an English class in Springfield, Ohio, on Sept. 13, 2024. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

    Former President Donald Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance, have criticized the Biden administration’s decision to allow Haitian nationals who are in the U.S. to apply for permission to stay under a legal classification called Temporary Protected Status. Here is what this designation means and how it’s made:

    TPS permits foreign nationals who are already in the United States – even if they did not enter the country through an official or legal means – to remain for six, 12 or 18 months at a time if the situation in their home country is deemed too dangerous for them to return. Threats that prompt TPS designations include ongoing armed conflict, natural disasters, epidemics and other extraordinary and temporary conditions.

    The Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security designates a foreign country for TPS when conditions there meet requirements spelled out in federal law. Once the secretary determines that the foreign country is safe for its nationals to return, their protected status expires and people who have been granted it are expected to return to their home country.

    Congress created TPS as part of the Immigration Act of 1990. Since then, administrations have used it to protect thousands of people from dozens of countries. The first nations to be designated, in March 1991, were Kuwait, Lebanon and Liberia.

    As of March 2024, there were 863,880 people from 16 countries under Temporary Protected Status in the U.S. Another 486,418 people had initial or renewal applications pending. An estimated 316,000 people may also be eligible under two new extensions since that date.

    TPS beneficiaries may not be detained by federal officials over their immigration status or deported from the United States. They can obtain work permits and apply for authorization to travel outside the U.S. and return to it.

    People who receive TPS don’t automatically become legal permanent residents. But they can petition for an adjustment of their immigration status, such as applying for permanent residency, a student visa or asylum. Applying for a change of immigration status does not necessarily mean their application will be approved.

    Humanitarian measures

    TPS is not the only tool administrations can use to protect people from countries facing disaster or conflict.

    For example, a Haitian person currently living in the U.S. is eligible for TPS under a designation that lasts through Feb. 3, 2026. In contrast, a Haitian who travels through Mexico and applies for entry to the U.S. at the border is not likely to be admitted.

    However, there is a third possibility for Haitians, known as parole. The federal government can give certain groups permission to enter or remain in the U.S. if it finds “urgent humanitarian or significant public benefit reasons” for doing so.

    People who enter through parole programs must have an approved financial supporter in the U.S., undergo a robust security vetting and meet other eligibility criteria. They typically can stay for one to two years, and may apply for authorization to work.

    One current parole program is for people from Latin American countries that are TPS designates. The U.S. government can grant advance permission to enter the U.S. to up to 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans each month. People fleeing these countries – all of which have been designated for Temporary Protected Status – can seek authorization to travel from their homes to the U.S. for urgent humanitarian reasons, and then stay for a temporary period of parole for up to two years.

    Immigrant rights groups rally at the U.S. Capitol following a federal court ruling that threatened the legal standing of thousands with Temporary Protected Status, Sept. 15, 2020.
    Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    I’ve studied global migration and asylum policy for 25 years. I see both TPS and parole as legal and carefully considered ways to support people from countries experiencing wrenching conflict, disorder and disaster who are seeking safety in the U.S. Doing away with these programs, as Trump sought to do during his term in office, would make it extremely difficult for people in great danger to escape.

    Neither TPS nor parole programs are automatic roads to citizenship or permanent residence. They are ways to provide humanitarian assistance to people in appalling circumstances, such as rampant gang violence in Haiti and economic hardship and political repression in Venezuela and Nicaragua.

    Certainly, cities need more resources to support large numbers of immigrants. But offering temporary protection to people whose home countries are not safe places to live is a long-standing – and, in my view, crucial – element of U.S. immigration policy.

    Karen Jacobsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is Temporary Protected Status? A global migration expert why the US offers some foreign nationals temporary protection – https://theconversation.com/what-is-temporary-protected-status-a-global-migration-expert-why-the-us-offers-some-foreign-nationals-temporary-protection-240525

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Coastal cities have a hidden vulnerability to storm-surge and tidal flooding − entirely caused by humans

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Philip M. Orton, Research Associate Professor in Ocean Engineering, Stevens Institute of Technology

    A consequence of dredging deep channels is that water also enters more easily with tides and storm surge. Google Earth

    Centuries ago, estuaries around the world were teeming with birds and turbulent with schools of fish, their marshlands and endless tracts of channels melting into the gray-blue horizon.

    Fast-forward to today, and in estuaries such as New York Harbor, San Francisco Bay and Miami’s Biscayne Bay – areas where rivers meet the sea – 80% to 90% of this habitat has been built over.

    The result has been the environmental collapse of estuary habitats and the loss of buffer zones that helped protect cities from storm surge and sea-level rise. But the damage isn’t just what’s visible on land.

    Below the surface of many of the remaining waterways, another form of urbanization has been slowly increasing the vulnerability of coastlines to extreme storms and sea-level rise: Vast dredging and engineering projects have more than doubled the depths of shipping channels since the 19th century.

    Some of these oceanic highways enable huge container ships, with drafts of 50 feet below the waterline and lengths of nearly a quarter mile, to glide into formerly shallow areas. An example is New Jersey’s Newark Bay, which was as little as 10 feet (3 meters) deep in the 1840s but is 50 feet (15 meters) deep today.

    A consequence of dredging deep channels is that water also enters and exits the estuaries more easily with each tide or storm. In these dredged channels, the natural resistance to flow created by a rough and shallow channel bottom is reduced. With less friction, that can lead to larger high tides and storm surge.

    As coastal engineers and oceanographers, we study coastal ocean physics and storm surge. There are solutions to the problems “estuary urbanization” is causing, if people are willing to accept some trade-offs.

    An unintended side effect of dredging

    The effects of dredging are most visible in the daily tides, which have grown larger over the past century in many estuaries and aggravated nuisance flooding in many cities, as our research shows.

    Tide range – the average variation between high and low tide – has doubled in multiple estuaries and changed significantly in others. As a result, high-tide levels are often rising faster than sea-level rise, worsening its consequences.

    The most common culprit for these larger tides is estuary urbanization.

    For example, in Miami, where the tide range has almost doubled, a major contributor is the construction and dredging of a nearly 50-foot-deep (15 meter), 500-foot-wide (150 meter) harbor entrance channel beginning in the early 20th century.

    In New York City, some neighborhoods in southern Queens see 15 minor tidal floods per year today. Computer modeling shows that these floods are caused in about equal measure by sea-level rise and landscape alterations, including dredging and wetland reclamation projects that fill in wetlands to build industrial sites, airports and neighborhoods.

    Evidence and computer modeling show that any hurricane storm surge affecting parts of New York City, Jacksonville, Wilmington, Philadelphia, Southeast Florida and Southwest Louisiana, among other locations, will likely produce higher water levels due to estuary urbanization, potentially causing more damage in unprotected regions.

    These costs have gone largely unnoticed, since changes have occurred gradually over the past 150 years. But as sea-level rise and turbo-charged storms increase flooding frequency and severity, the problem is becoming more visible.

    Building solutions to the flooding problem

    In response to rising sea levels, a different form of estuary urbanization is attracting new attention as a possible solution.

    Gated storm-surge barriers or tide gates are being built across estuaries or their inlets so they can be closed off during storm-surge events. Some examples include barriers for New Orleans; London; Venice, Italy; and the Netherlands. Such barriers are increasingly being proposed alongside levee systems for coastal protection of urbanized estuary shorelines.

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recently recommended surge barriers for 11 additional estuaries, including near Miami, Jamaica Bay in Queens and Galveston, Texas.

    Surge barriers are not long-term solutions to flooding driven by sea-level rise, and their negative impacts remain poorly understood.

    Venice’s rising flood wall includes 58 gates, each about the size of two tennis courts, that rise to block the inlet from storm surge.

    Natural solutions

    Wetlands and mangroves have also emerged as a popular nature-based solution.

    Communities and government funding have focused on attempts to restore or create new wetlands as buffers in shoreline areas. But this solution is ineffective for flood protection in most harbor cities, such as New York, due to the lack of available space.

    A storm surge crossing over a mile of marsh can be reduced by several inches, depending on the site’s characteristics. But typical urban estuary waterfronts have only tens of feet of open space to work with, if that much. In a narrow space, the best that vegetation can do is reduce wave action, which often isn’t the the most pressing problem for cities on estuaries that are typically sheltered from wind-driven storm waves.

    As a result, engineered wetlands, while attractive, may be ineffective, especially if trends in ship sizes and estuarine urbanization continues.

    Better ways to put nature back to work

    Our research reveals an opportunity for scientists, engineers and broader society to think bigger – to consider a more comprehensive reshaping and restoration of the natural features of estuaries that once mitigated or absorbed flooding.

    Possible solutions include halting the maintenance dredging of underutilized shipping channels, gradually retreating from vulnerable – and now often waterlogged – landfill industrial sites and neighborhoods, and restoring these larger expanses to wetlands.

    These approaches can sharply reduce flooding and provide years of protection against sea-level rise. Restoration to historical channel and wetland configurations, however, is rarely given serious consideration in coastal storm risk management studies because of the perceived economic cost, but also because the cumulative effect of deeper channel depths is often unrecognized.

    Renaturing urbanized estuaries in these ways could be paired with buyout programs to also reclaim the floodplain, reducing risk in more sustainable ways. Or it could be paired with seawalls to protect existing neighborhoods in a more ecologically beneficial way. These approaches should be considered as alternatives to further urbanizing our cities’ few remaining natural areas – their estuaries.

    Philip M. Orton receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, pertaining to the assessment of coastal flooding from storms, high tides, sea level rise and estuary urbanization.

    Stefan Talke receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, the California Department of Transportation, Pacific Northwest National Labs, and the California Delta Stewardship Council. The research pertains to the effect of sea-level rise and anthropogenic change on tides and floods in the past, present, and future.

    – ref. Coastal cities have a hidden vulnerability to storm-surge and tidal flooding − entirely caused by humans – https://theconversation.com/coastal-cities-have-a-hidden-vulnerability-to-storm-surge-and-tidal-flooding-entirely-caused-by-humans-231374

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Presidential elections provide opportunities to teach about power, proportions and percentages

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Liza Bondurant, Associate Professor of Secondary Math Education, Mississippi State University

    The complex voting system in the U.S. requires a sophisticated understanding of math. bamlou/DigitalVision Vectors

    To American voters, the process of electing a president and other officials may be difficult to explain and understand. For America’s math teachers, the system represents a gold mine for real-life lessons on ratios, statistics and data.

    And by basing the lessons on elections, teachers can help put students on the path to becoming informed and engaged voters later in life, according to a 2020 survey of 2,232 young adults ages 18-21.

    Americans don’t vote directly for the president. Instead, a group of electors vote for the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state. In most states, whoever wins the most votes wins all the state’s electors, or “electoral votes.”

    Not all states have the same number of electors. Each state starts with two electoral votes, based on the two U.S. senators in each state. States receive additional electors based on the number of representatives they have in the House of Representatives, which depends on a state’s population. The number of representatives in the House, however, has been set at 435 since 1929, despite a huge and varied increase in the population. This means the number of people represented by each member of the U.S. House – the ratio of people to representative – varies considerably, as shown in a table from the U.S. Census Bureau.

    Armed with this background, math teachers can use the census data on population and ratios to teach students the following math – and voting – topics.

    Topic 1: Ratio

    To calculate a state’s representative ratio, the number of people for every one representative, divide the population by the number of the state’s representatives in the U.S. House. In 2020, for example, Montana had two congressional representatives and a population of 1,085,407. The representative ratio was 542,704:1 – 1,085,407 divided by 2 – or 542,704 residents for each representative.

    Topic 2: Minimum and maximum

    In any set of numbers, the minimum is the smallest number in the set and the maximum is the largest number. For example, using the representative ratios from the 2020 census data, Montana’s ratio of 542,704:1 is the smallest – the minimum – and Delaware’s ratio of 990,837:1 is the largest, or the maximum.

    Topic 3: The shape, center and spread of data

    Shape means how data, such as the ratios of residents to representatives, looks on a chart or graph. Teachers can use a histogram, a kind of graph used to illustrate how data is distributed: evenly, skewed to one side, or with some numbers as outliers, at a distance from the other numbers.

    The ratios can also be used to explain how to find the “center” of data, its mean or median. The mean is the average, found by adding all the numbers in the set and dividing by how many there are. For example, adding the ratios for all the states and dividing by 50. The median is the middle number when all numbers are placed in order from minimum to maximum. Simple spreadsheet formulas are available online to help students find both.

    Students can examine ratios of residents to representatives for all 50 states.
    iofoto via Getty Images

    The “spread” of a set of numbers tells how much the numbers are different from the center. One measure of spread is called the range, which is the difference between the maximum and the minimum. For example, the range in representative ratios among the states is 448,133: the maximum, Delaware’s 990,837, minus the minimum, Montana’s 542,704.

    When students understand how ratios – and elections – work, teachers can ask questions such as, “Montana has fewer people per representative than Delaware. Where would your vote count more?” Answer: Montana, because fewer people per representative means each vote counts more.

    Topic 4: Gerrymandering

    Each state is divided into districts; residents of each district vote for their state and federal representatives. Gerrymandering occurs when the borders of voting districts are drawn to favor one party at the expense of another. The political party in power often draws these district lines to make it easier for that party to win in the future.

    Imagine a state has 10 representatives, and Party X gets 60% of the votes. With 60% of the votes, it seems fair that Party X should get 6 of the state’s 10 seats for representatives.

    There is no rule that says the percentage of votes cast for a party in a state has to line up with the number of seats the party wins. And Party X wants more. To keep control of as many seats as possible, the politicians in Party X would like to manipulate – or gerrymander – each of 10 districts to make sure it would win 60% of the vote in each. With a majority in each district, Party X would win all 10 seats. Gerrymandering to this extreme is not always possible because districts must consist of adjoining areas, and voters who favor one party might not live in areas that can be easily connected.

    Lessons on gerrymandering can vary by grade level. For example, elementary students can get hands-on experience manipulating borders with the Julia Robinson Mathematics Festival “puzzles” tool. The puzzle, which can be tied to lessons about shapes, percents and area, allows children to change boundaries on a graph to increase or decrease the number of yellow or green squares – representing voters – in each “district.” There are fewer green squares than yellow squares in each puzzle. Students win when they successfully gerrymander, changing the borders so the green voters are in the majority in most, or all, of the districts.

    High school students, who already understand the basics of gerrymandering, can use a tool called Districtr to draw real voting districts. The site uses actual data about where voters live and which political party won in which area. Using this tool, students cannot only try to gerrymander districts, they can also try to create districts that are more fairly balanced. After trying to draw their own “fair” districts, students might be interested in some states’ use of independent groups to draw fairer district lines.

    By using elections as a learning tool, students can gain a better understanding of ratios, means and range, and they might also start thinking about what they can do to improve the process.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Presidential elections provide opportunities to teach about power, proportions and percentages – https://theconversation.com/presidential-elections-provide-opportunities-to-teach-about-power-proportions-and-percentages-238152

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to be a boss at giving performance reviews

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kip Holderness, Associate Professor of Forensic and Fraud Examination and Accounting, West Virginia University

    When you’re a manager, delivering feedback can feel like walking a tightrope. Whether you’re praising an employee’s accomplishments or addressing a shortfall, how you communicate can have a big impact on how your words are received and acted upon.

    As business school professors, we’ve done research into how to make the assessment process as painless as possible. And we’ve found three essential strategies for delivering feedback that’s both effective and constructive.

    Using these strategies will help you elevate the feedback process, fostering a more positive and productive work environment:

    1. Keep your emotions out of it

    Have you ever noticed that saying things like “I’m disappointed” or “I’m proud of you” can change a feedback conversation completely? That’s because the language you use – particularly emotionally charged words – can shift how employees interpret the feedback.

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, our research shows that using negative emotional language – like “I’m disappointed” – can reduce employee motivation and effort. This happens because employees shift their focus away from their performance and toward how you, the manager, see them as a person.

    At the same time, using positive emotional language such as “I’m pleased” can sometimes backfire. That’s because it can make employees feel complacent.

    The key takeaway here is that using emotionally neutral language, especially when giving negative feedback, helps employees stay focused on their tasks without getting sidetracked by what the feedback says about them personally.

    Instead of saying, “I’m disappointed with your sales numbers,” try a more neutral approach, like “The sales numbers are below the target we set. Let’s discuss some strategies for improvement.”

    By keeping a lid on the emotions in your language, you keep the conversation focused on performance. That helps employees better understand what they need to work on, without the additional emotional burden.

    2. Let workers customize their experience

    Not all employees want the same type of feedback, and that’s perfectly OK. Giving employees the ability to choose the type and frequency of evaluations can boost performance.

    Workers who have a say in how often they are evaluated are more likely to use the process productively and feel less micromanaged, our research has found.

    Consider creating a feedback menu where employees can select areas for assessment, such as communication skills, leadership development or project management. An additional strategy is to let workers set the frequency of feedback sessions – whether they be weekly check-ins or more comprehensive quarterly reviews.

    When employees have ownership over the evaluation they receive, they are more open to it, perceive it as more valuable and are more likely to act on it.

    3. Choose the right messenger

    Who delivers the feedback can be just as important as the information itself. Our research has shown that some employees respond better to feedback from their peers, while others respond better when it’s from a manager.

    Specifically, we found that people with a greater sense of entitlement do better with feedback from a supervisor, while less entitled people respond better to peer feedback.

    That’s why it can be a good idea to use personality profiles to determine the best messenger for feedback. For instance, consider situations where a co-worker’s feedback could be reasonably delivered and from whom, like a peer mentor or team lead.

    By aligning the feedback source with the content and context, you ensure that the feedback resonates more deeply and is perceived as constructive rather than critical.

    Applying the principles in real life

    Managers may find that using these three strategies might require adjusting their current feedback approach, but the benefits are worth it. Here’s a quick example of how to apply these strategies:

    Imagine you have an employee, Mark, whose performance has recently dropped. In your feedback conversation, you might start with a neutral statement like “Mark, I’ve noticed that your recent projects have been missing their deadlines. Let’s discuss why this might be happening.” This language will help Mark focus on the issue without taking it as a personal attack.

    Next, offer Mark the option to set up regular biweekly check-ins or monthly reviews to see what works best for him. Finally, if Mark has a strong rapport with a team member who excels at time management, consider arranging a peer feedback session where they can share tips and strategies.

    The result? Mark feels supported rather than scrutinized, and the feedback is framed as an opportunity for growth rather than a reprimand.

    As researchers who’ve studied management communication and feedback strategies for years, we know that these approaches can transform the way people interact with their teams. By being intentional about giving feedback, managers can create environments where employees feel respected, valued and motivated to succeed.

    Kip Holderness has received funding in the past from the Institute of Management Accountants and the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners.

    Kari Olsen received funding from the Institute of Management Accountants Research Foundation.

    Todd Thornock has received funding from the Institute of Management Accountants Research Foundation.

    – ref. How to be a boss at giving performance reviews – https://theconversation.com/how-to-be-a-boss-at-giving-performance-reviews-233428

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pobol y Cwm: BBC’s longest running TV soap celebrates 50 years on air

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jamie Medhurst, Professor of Film and Media, Aberystwyth University

    “We had a special kind of audience in mind: the Welsh who have never read Barn or Y Faner (two popular Welsh-language publications written in a scholarly tone) but live their lives every day in the natural sound of the Welsh language.” That’s how dramatist Gwenlyn Parry described the target audience of the new BBC Wales soap opera, Pobol y Cwm, which was broadcast for the first time 50 years ago ago, on October 16 1974.

    Pobol y Cwm – which means “people of the valley” – is set in the fictional village of Cwmderi, in the Gwendraeth valley, south-west Wales. It was originally filmed at Broadway Studios in Cardiff, then on a purpose-built lot at BBC Broadcasting House, also in the Welsh capital. But since 2011, the programme has been mainly filmed at the BBC’s drama studios at Roath Lock in Cardiff Bay.

    BBC Wales’ television service had been in existence for ten years by the time the series was broadcast. Television producer John Hefin felt there was a need for a long drama series in Welsh, which would meet the needs of audiences in the same way as Coronation Street had been doing on ITV since 1960.

    Hefin and Parry’s vision was evident. In planning meetings for the series, it was noted that “the main aim of the series is pure entertainment and from a mathematical analysis it will require 70% easy, humorous lightness, and 30% personal and social problems”.

    Other guidelines for the series were clear from the start – no preaching about the state of the Welsh language, the evils of drugs, the dangers of sex, or theological dogma. The main aim was to “develop a story line full of seemingly insignificant events but conveying a believable whole of Welsh village life”.

    The Welsh language soap first began on BBC One Wales in October 1974 before moving to S4C in 1982, where it continues to this day.

    Soap history

    Soap operas can be traced back to the early days of US radio, when drama series were sponsored by washing powder manufacturers, hence the word “soap”. The BBC launched drama series, or soap operas, on the radio after the end of the second world war. Examples include Mrs Dale’s Diary in 1948 and, of course, The Archers in 1951.

    But audiences had to wait until 1954 until the first soap opera was launched on the BBC’s television service, The Grove Family. But the life of this series was short-lived, ending in 1957.

    In December 1960, ITV Granada launched Coronation Street, a series about everyday street life in the Manchester area. It soon became extremely popular among viewers across Britain. The appeal of the series was in its simplicity. It focused on the normal lives of working class people. The plot was derived from the setting and personalities, especially the strong female characters.

    Tony Warren was the man who sold the idea of Coronation Street to the Granada company. He realised, at the end of the 1950s, that the way of life in that part of England was changing. Warren wanted to capture and preserve traditional spirit and show it to the rest of the country.

    I wonder, then, when proposing an idea for a soap opera to the BBC at the beginning of the 1970s, whether Hefin and Parry had the same feeling. The Wales of the time was changing, after all. The 1971 census showed that the Welsh language was under siege.

    It was felt by many within the BBC that a series reflecting old Welsh values was needed. And yet it also needed to be contemporary, with an element of realism. This is the trick for successful soap opera producers – the series must be “real” enough so that people can believe in the characters, and can identify with them in times of joy and sadness.

    Pobol y Cwm was a success from the outset, and that continued throughout the 1970s and 1980s. When musician John Lennon died in December 1980, a film about the Beatles was broadcast on BBC Wales as a tribute instead of Pobol y Cwm. It resulted in hundreds of loyal soap opera viewers flooding the switchboard of Broadcasting House in Cardiff with complaints.

    The BBC also received complaints that there were too many scenes taking place in the pub because this was not a “Welsh” thing to do. And yet, according to Parry, there were no complaints when a scene was shown with one of the main characters, Reg Harries, having an affair with the schoolmaster’s wife in the early 1980s.

    Famous faces

    Pobol y Cwm has nurtured the talent of several actors who have become more widely known. Among them Ioan Gruffudd, Iwan Rheon and Alexandra Roach. And several other celebrities have made cameo appearances in the series over the years, including actor Michael Sheen, presenter Michael Aspel and wrestler Giant Haystacks.

    In an article in the Welsh newspaper Y Cymro in 1975, Parry said: “The aim was to produce stuff that a natural Welsh person would watch, not because it was in Welsh, but because it was entertaining. The kind of stuff that will be needed to draw viewers to the fourth channel when it comes.”

    Still produced by BBC Wales, the series moved to Wales’ new fourth channel, S4C, in 1982 and the viewers followed. It remains among the channel’s most popular programmes.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Jamie Medhurst has received funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council, the British Academy, and the Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. Pobol y Cwm: BBC’s longest running TV soap celebrates 50 years on air – https://theconversation.com/pobol-y-cwm-bbcs-longest-running-tv-soap-celebrates-50-years-on-air-241390

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Vive L’impressionnisme! at the Van Gogh Museum: a compelling, eco-conscious celebration of impressionism

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Frances Fowle, Personal Chair of Nineteenth-Century Art, History of Art, University of Edinburgh

    Despite its corny title, Vive L’Impressionnisme!, which recently opened at the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam, is well worth seeing. Marking the 150th anniversary of the first impressionist exhibition, the show tells the story of how one of the movement’s founders, Claude Monet, and his contemporaries were supported by a few enlightened Dutch collectors and their pictures absorbed into Dutch institutions.

    It brings together numerous works that are rarely, if ever, seen together, assembled from ten museums and seven private collections across the Netherlands. The result is a fascinating reflection of Dutch taste over the past century and a half.

    Vive L’Impressionnisme! is cleverly curated. The exhibition is arranged thematically, with landscapes on the first floor and modern life paintings on the upper level. The potential monotony of a continuous hang on a long wall is avoided by the introduction of sculpture, as well as aesthetic “ensembles” of paintings or works on paper.

    Upstairs, the normally cavernous exhibition space is divided into discrete rooms, in order to allow the visitor a more intimate viewing experience. Among the most remarkable aspects of the show is the decision to display paintings, sculpture and works on paper side-by-side. It’s a democratisation of art that mimics the way the impressionists themselves exhibited their work.

    On one wall you can see four states of Camille Pissarro’s etching The Old Cottage (1879), three of which were exhibited at the fifth impressionist exhibition in 1880. In each successive state, Pissarro observes the way in which the cottage and surrounding landscape are affected by the changing light and atmosphere, anticipating Monet’s later series paintings. In both oil painting and printmaking, these artists privileged experimental techniques and the analysis of light and colour over academic finish.

    In the second half of the 19th century, Dutch collectors and critics were more attuned to the overcast skies and earthy tones of the local Hague School painters than to the broken brushwork and high-keyed palette of impressionism. The new art was dismissed by critics as the “ravings of madmen, drunks and children”.

    Encouraged by his brother Vincent, Theo van Gogh’s efforts to sell impressionist art via the Goupil Gallery in the Hague were sadly thwarted. However, he did influence his wealthy brother-in-law, Andries Bonger, who became the first Dutch collector to develop a taste for the work of Paul Cézanne. Dutch lawyer Cornelis Hoogendijk also acquired around 25 Cézanne works before 1900, while another pioneer collector, Helene Kröller-Müller, specialised in the work of Van Gogh as well as the impressionists.



    Read more:
    Van Gogh Museum at 50: Vincent van Gogh and the art market – a brief history

    As the exhibition unfolds, visitors learn that, while Monet’s landscapes were greatly admired by the Dutch, the figurative work of Edgar Degas was less appreciated.

    Monet, a pupil of the Dutch artist Johan Jongkind, travelled more than once to the Netherlands. In 1871, he painted the Windmills Near Zaandam on an overcast day, and was delighted to make a sale. His Portrait of Miss Guurtje van de Stadt was acquired by a wealthy timber merchant and became the first impressionist work to enter a Dutch private collection. Returning for a last visit in 1886, Monet painted the more strident Tulip Fields Near the Hague, this time clearly with an eye for the market.

    Early acquisitions

    The first impressionist work to enter a public collection in the Netherlands was, perhaps unsurprisingly, another work by Monet. La Corniche Near Monaco (1884) was donated to the Rijksmuseum in 1900 by Baroness Van Lynden-Van Pallandt.

    Painted at Cap Martin on the French Riviera, it is remarkable for the bold orange scar of road that bisects the canvas, leading the eye towards the brooding blue-and-violet cliffs in the distance. This warm Mediterranean scene is flanked by two Monet canvases evoking the cooler atmosphere of the Normandy coast: Cliffs Near Pourville (1882) and Fisherman’s Cottage, Varengeville (1882).

    While Monet’s paintings are well-represented in the exhibition, along with oils by Pissarro, Cézanne, Pierre-Auguste Renoir, Alfred Sisley, Gustave Caillebotte and others, some artists are represented only by works on paper. Astonishingly not a single oil painting by Degas has found itself into a Dutch collection, either private or public. Édouard Manet, too, is virtually absent from the exhibition.

    Female artists were predictably underappreciated, or perhaps unavailable on the market. In recent years, the Van Gogh Museum and other Dutch institutions have tried to rectify that imbalance, though the market price for impressionism continues to rise, making new aquisitions a challenge.

    The exhibition includes recent purchases of works by pioneering female impressionist painters Berthe Morisot and Mary Cassatt. And there are also several gems from private collections, such as an exquisite Little Bowl with Parsley by Eva Gonzalès and decorative plates by Marie Bracquemond.

    The exhibition is aesthetically beautiful and intellectually compelling. It also delivers a sound environmental message, demonstrating that it is possible to create world-class exhibitions without flying works of art across the globe.

    Those pictures that were once in Dutch hands but later left the country are reproduced virtually, and lamented in the final section of the exhibition, titled Boulevard of Broken Promises. It provides a fascinating and thought-provoking coda to the show.

    Vive L’impressionnisme! Masterpieces from Dutch Collections will be on show at the Van Gogh Museum, Amsterdam until January 26 2025.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Frances Fowle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vive L’impressionnisme! at the Van Gogh Museum: a compelling, eco-conscious celebration of impressionism – https://theconversation.com/vive-limpressionnisme-at-the-van-gogh-museum-a-compelling-eco-conscious-celebration-of-impressionism-241395

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: High-potency cannabis use leaves a distinct mark on DNA – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Marta Di Forti, Clinician Scientist MRC Research Fellow, King’s College London

    People who use cannabis with THC of 10% or more are five times more likely to develop a psychotic disorder compared to those who don’t use the drug. Canna Obscura/ Shutterstock

    Cannabis is one of the most commonly used drugs in the world. Yet there’s still much we don’t know about it and what effects it has on the brain – including why cannabis triggers psychosis in some people who use the drug. But our recent study has just brought us closer to understanding the biological impact of high-potency cannabis use.

    Published in the journal Molecular Psychiatry, our study demonstrates that high-potency cannabis leaves a distinct mark on DNA. We also found that these DNA changes were different in people experiencing their first episode of psychosis compared to users who’d never experienced psychosis. This suggests looking at how cannabis use modifies DNA could help identify those most at risk of developing psychosis.

    The amount of THC (Delta-9_tetrahydrocannabinol), the main ingredient in cannabis that makes people feel “high”, has been steadily increasing since the 1990s in the UK and US. In Colorado, where the drug is legal, it’s possible to buy cannabis with 90% THC. While THC is one of over 144 other chemicals found in the cannabis plant, it’s the primary compound used to estimate the potency of cannabis.

    Many studies have shown that the greater the THC concentration, the stronger the effects on the user. For example, research has found that people who use high-potency cannabis (with THC of 10% or more) daily are five times more likely to develop a psychotic disorder compared to people who have never used cannabis.

    Psychotic disorders associated with daily use of high-potency cannabis often manifest through a range of symptoms. These can include auditory hallucinations (hearing voices that others cannot hear), delusions of persecution (feeling the target of a conspiracy without evidence) and paranoia (perceiving the environment as hostile and interpreting interactions suspiciously). These are all very distressing and disabling experiences.



    Read more:
    Cannabis: how it affects our cognition and psychology – new research

    Our study aimed the explore the mark that current cannabis use leaves on the DNA. We also wanted to understand if this mark is specific to high-potency cannabis use – and if this might help to identify those users at greater risk of experiencing psychosis.

    To do this, we examined the effects of cannabis use on an molecular process called DNA methylation. DNA methylation is a chemical process that regulates gene activity by turning genes on or off and controlling how genes are expressed without changing the structure of the DNA itself. DNA methylation is just one of the many mechanisms that regulate gene activity and are part of an important biological process known as epigenetics. Epigenetics underpin the interplay between our environment, the lifestyle choices we make (such as using cannabis or exercising) and our physical and mental health.

    While previous studies have investigated the impact of lifetime cannabis use on DNA methylation, they haven’t explored what effect regular use of different cannabis potencies has on this process. Nor have they explored how this affects with people who have psychosis.

    Our study combined data from two large first case-control studies: the Genetic and Psychosis study, which was conducted in south London, and the EU-GEI study, which included participants from England, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Brazil. Both of these studies collected data on people experiencing their first episode of psychosis and participants who had no health problems and represented the local population.

    High-potency cannabis use alters DNA methylation in genes related to energy and immune system functions.
    Oleksandrum/ Shutterstock

    In total, we looked at 239 people who were experiencing their first episode of psychosis and 443 healthy volunteers. Around 65% of participants were male. Participants ranged in age 16-72. All participants provided information on their cannabis use, as well as DNA samples from their blood.

    Around 38% of participants were using cannabis more than once a week. Of those who had used cannabis, the majority had been using high-potency cannabis more than once a week – and had started when they were around 16 years old.

    Analyses of DNA methylation were then performed across multiple parts of the whole genome. The analysis took into account the potential impact of several biological and environmental confounders that may have affected the results – such as age, gender, ethnicity, tobacco smoking and the cellular makeup of each blood sample.

    DNA signature

    Our findings revealed that using high-potency cannabis alters DNA methylation – particularly in genes related to energy and immune system functions. This was true for participants who had used high-potency cannabis. However, people who had experienced psychosis had a different signature of alteration in their DNA.

    These epigenetic changes show how external factors (like drug use) can alter how genes work. Very importantly, these changes were not explained by tobacco – which is usually mixed into joints by many cannabis users, and is known to alter DNA methylation.

    This finding also highlights epigenetic changes as a potential link between high-potency cannabis and psychosis. DNA methylation, which bridges the gap between genetics and environmental factors, is a key mechanism that allows external influences (such as substance use) to impact gene activity. By studying epigenetic changes, researchers may be able to develop a greater understanding on how cannabis use – particularly high-potency types – can influence specific biological pathways. This may in turn help us understand why some cannabis users are at increased risk of psychosis.

    We hope that our findings will help scientists to better understand how cannabis use can affect the body’s biology. Future research should now investigate whether the DNA methylation patterns associated with cannabis use can serve as biomarkers to identify users at higher risk of developing psychosis. This could lead to more targeted prevention strategies and inform safer cannabis use practices.

    Emma Dempster receives funding from MRC, NIHR, ARUK.

    Marta Di Forti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. High-potency cannabis use leaves a distinct mark on DNA – new research – https://theconversation.com/high-potency-cannabis-use-leaves-a-distinct-mark-on-dna-new-research-241384

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ‘bully cats’ bred to resemble American bully dogs and how fashion is creating mutant pet breeds

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Grace Carroll, Lecturer in Animal Behaviour and Welfare, School of Psychology, Queen’s University Belfast

    Sphynx cats were used to create the bully cat mutant. New Africa/Shutterstock

    Pedigree cat breeding has long had its controversies but a new trend for cats bred to look like American bully XL dogs could be one of the most worrying fads yet.

    So-called “bully cats” originated in the US and are a result of mutant breeding. Unlike pedigree breeding, which focuses on keeping animals purebred, mutant breeding involves intentionally combining genetic mutations to create cats with a specific look. In this case, they mix the gene that causes hairlessness in sphynx cats with the gene responsible for the short legs of munchkin cats, making bully cats a munchkin-sphynx cross.

    These cats share a close resemblance to bully dogs, a group of breeds characterised by a solid build, wide body and short coat. American XL bully dogs were banned in the UK in 2023. Recently, bully cats have made their way to the UK, where social media accounts promoting this new mutant breed have emerged.

    YouTube users criticised this video for “making it normal” to breed animals with genetic health problems.

    According to Marjan van Hagen and Jeffrey de Gier, animal welfare and reproduction experts at Utrecht University in The Netherlands, these mutations can have serious health consequences for the cats and limit their freedom of movement. Kittens already have a limited ability to regulate their body temperature and this is made even more difficult by hairlessness and makes them more suspectible to respiratory infections.

    A lack of fur can also lead to sunburn and skin cancer in hairless cats. Like the sphynx, bully cats also lack whiskers, which cats depend on for communication, navigating their environment and gauging spatial dimensions.

    Short-legged cats also face problems. Short legs limit their ability to jump, can put cats at a disadvantage in fights and can lead to painful health conditions. Although breeders claim that bully cats are healthy and long-lived, it’s still too early to determine their long-term health and welfare.

    Some breeders also say they are screening the cats they breed from for conditions such as heart disease. This can help prevent health problems, but it can’t overcome all of the health and welfare issues with mutant breeding.

    A May 2024 study by veterinary epidemiologist Kendy Tzu-Yun Teng and colleagues assessed annual life expectancy in UK cats and found that the average cat lives nearly 12 years, but sphynx cats have the shortest lifespan — just 6.7 years. Bully cats, being both hairless and short-legged, may face twice the number of challenges encountered by sphynx and munchkin breeds.

    In the wild, unrelated species that face comparable environmental challenges often develop similar traits, a process known as “convergent evolution”. Despite coming from different evolutionary paths, these species evolve to look and behave in similar ways.

    Take the sugar glider from Australia, for example. It looks and behaves much like the US flying squirrel, yet one is a marsupial and one is a mammal. Both animals faced the problem of how to move efficiently in a forest canopy, and evolved the same solution.

    Sugar gliders are not related to flying squirrels.
    I Wayan Sumatika/Shutterstock

    In a similar way, many domesticated animals share common traits, collectively known as “domestication syndrome” including increased tameness, juvenile behaviour, floppy ears and smaller teeth. Traits that helped them adjust to life with humans. However, the resemblance between bully cats and dogs doesn’t come from this gradual, natural process. Instead, it’s the result of selective breeding based on aesthetics.

    Veterinarian and animal welfare scientist Wenche Farstad summarises this as breeding for “curiosity or cuteness” in their 2018 paper on ethical breeding. While people normally find traits like round eyes and short nose length to be particularly cute, breeding for hairlessness and shorter legs is better aligned with the concept of breeding for curiosity.

    In this case, the resemblance between bully cats and dogs is more about human-driven design, where appearance is prioritised. The bully cat seems to have been intentionally bred to resemble the bully dog, perhaps due to their perception among young men as a kind of status symbol.

    Could bully cats survive without humans?

    Mutations that hinder survival and reproduction typically become rare in nature. However, humans bypass natural selection by choosing which animals breed, allowing traits that would be disadvantageous in the wild to persist.

    Examples of this can be seen across a number of domestic species. For example, due to the muscularity of their calves, Belgian Blue cattle require caesarean sections in more than 90% of births.

    Another farm animal, the modern broiler chicken, has been bred to grow much faster than its wild counterparts. If allowed to live longer than their usual slaughter age, many would not survive. Bully cats would probably also struggle to survive in the wild, without humans to care for them.

    Crossbreeding programs can help increase genetic diversity and reduce harmful traits in many breeds. However, for mutant breeds like the bully cat – where hairlessness and short legs are defining traits – this isn’t a realistic solution.

    Prospective pet owners need to be aware of the risks associated with owning mutant and experimental breeds. Consumers hold purchasing power. We can discourage breeders from prioritising aesthetics over the health and welfare of the animals by refusing to buy breeds with extreme traits.

    A fashion toward ethical breeding could ensure future cats are healthier, happier and free to enjoy natural feline behaviour like climbing, jumping and lounging in the sun. We should let cats be cats.

    Grace Carroll does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ‘bully cats’ bred to resemble American bully dogs and how fashion is creating mutant pet breeds – https://theconversation.com/the-bully-cats-bred-to-resemble-american-bully-dogs-and-how-fashion-is-creating-mutant-pet-breeds-240729

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Prison education is vital – but it is neglected and failing

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Glazzard, Rosalind Hollis Professor of Education for Social Justice, University of Hull

    Dontree_M/Shutterstock

    The quality of education in young offender institutions (YOIs) in England has seriously declined, according to a recent report from Ofsted and the prisons inspectorate.

    The report into these institutions, whose offenders are aged 15 to 18, referred to “steadily declining educational opportunities”. Among the failings listed were a lack of time allocated to education, lack of proper staff training, staff shortages and poor behaviour of learners.

    It claimed that the curriculum is narrow, fragmented, and poorly resourced due to lack of investment in technology. Prison leaders do not accurately pinpoint what students need to learn, while learners with special educational needs and disabilities do not always get the support that they need. According to data from 2022, only 8.6% of young people who received custodial sentences passed five GCSEs, compared to 58.3% of those without convictions.

    Indeed, there are similar issues across the prison system. The quality of education in too many prisons is not good enough. Research suggests prisoners are often disengaged in classes and education lacks challenge and purpose.

    This is especially disheartening when research also shows that participation in education within prisons can improve learners’ self-esteem and reduce prison violence, as well as increasing the chances of getting a job once offenders are released.

    Teaching reading

    Many adults in prison, as well as children in YOIs, struggle to read. English education inspectorate Ofsted and its prisons counterpart have published two reviews on the teaching of reading in prisons. The first report, published in 2022, highlighted that many teaching staff did not know how to teach reading.

    Inspectors found that reading teachers did not have suitable resources. There was not enough time for learners to practise reading, and weak assessment resulted in teachers not fully understanding why some learners were struggling to learn to read. Some prisons were over-relying on reading skills being taught by peer mentors, who are only supposed to support learners individually or in small groups.

    The second report, from 2023, highlighted that although some progress had been made a year later, it was too slow. Inspectors found that teachers still did not know how to improve reading skills. They also found that teachers did not monitor students’ progress, and interventions to support reading, particularly for non-English speakers, were not adequate.

    Special educational needs

    Too many pupils with special educational needs are excluded from schools and data shows that exclusion rates are higher for this group compared to those who do not have special educational needs. Many young people who are excluded from schools end up in prison, resulting in a high proportion of prisoners who have some form of learning difficulty or disability.

    According to a House of Commons report from 2022, over 30% of prisoners have a learning difficulty or experience learning challenges.

    In 2016 the Coates review of prison education made several recommendations to improve the quality of education in prisons. These included a focus on special educational needs – improving the assessment of educational needs on entry and more rigorous screening for prisoners with learning difficulties or disabilities.

    The review recommended that all prisoners should have a personal learning plan. Also, better quality teachers were needed and prisons needed to find ways of improving attendance in education classes

    Coates recommended that learners with special educational needs and disabilities needed better quality support and that prisoners needed to be able to continue their courses when they moved prisons. Unfortunately, evidence shows that in many prisons these recommendations have not been addressed.

    Making changes

    Another problem is that the growing prison population has led to overcrowding, resulting in poor conditions which make studying difficult.

    Work with prisoners by charities such as the Prison Reform Trust and the Prisoners’ Education Trust highlights some important recommendations which will improve the quality of education in prisons. These include widening the curriculum in prisons so that prisoners can select options from a wider range of courses.

    One recommendation is to provide better incentives to prisoners to encourage them to study. This could be done by paying them the same weekly “wage” as prisoners who choose work-related activities. Increasing the number of learning mentors will help ensure that prisoners get the support they need.

    Finally, introducing flexible education timetables would mean that education classes can also run in the evenings as well as during the day. This will mean that more prisoners can take part in education classes, because more classes can be timetabled across the day. Prisoners who work during the day will be able to take part in education in the evenings.

    According to the Prison Education Trust digital technology “remains the essential ingredient that would revolutionise prison education”. And prisoners need to be supported and encouraged if they are going to achieve their full educational potential.

    Jonathan Glazzard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Prison education is vital – but it is neglected and failing – https://theconversation.com/prison-education-is-vital-but-it-is-neglected-and-failing-240482

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Autocratic nations are reaching across borders to silence critics – and so far nothing seems to stop them

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesca Lessa, Associate Professor in International Relations of the Americas, UCL

    Iranian journalist Pouria Zeraati survived an assassination attempt outside his home in Wimbledon, south London, in late March 2024. Eighteen months earlier, the London-based independent television channel Iran International, for which Zeraati worked, had temporarily relocated to Washington DC over threats that they believe come from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

    Both incidents are examples of how it seems that a government can target an individual or organisation based outside their borders, with terrifying results.

    According to the latest research from the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenberg, 71% of the world’s population lived in autocracies in 2023 – ten years ago it was 48%. But what’s also new is that autocracies – as well as some other nations – are increasingly reaching across their borders to target people living abroad, enforcing the idea that they can reach their critics wherever they live.

    This kind of state action, taken outside national borders, is known as transnational repression, and is becoming more widespread. The Chinese government is seen as the biggest perpetrator, sometimes using violence to close down criticism or protests against its regime, held in other countries.

    Countries reaching across borders

    More than 20% of the world’s governments are believed to have taken this kind of action outside their borders in the past ten years. These included assassinations, abductions, assaults, detentions and unlawful deportations, according to the NGO Freedom House. These are aimed at forcibly silencing exiled political activists, journalists, former regime insiders and members of ethnic or religious minorities.
    In 2023, 125 such incidents were committed by 25 countries.

    While the majority of countries committing such practices tend to be autocracies, a number of democracies have also taken action across borders, including Israel, Hungary, India and Turkey, according to the report. In 2023, six countries engaged in these practices for the first time, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, El Salvador and Yemen.



    Read more:
    Why the growing number of foreign agent laws around the world is bad for democracy

    Freedom House recorded 1,034 physical attacks between 2014 and 2023, committed by 44 governments in 100 target countries. China, Turkey, Tajikistan, Russia and Egypt are the most prolific perpetrators, with China accounting for a quarter of all incidents.

    This type of terror tactic can take many forms. Freedom House has noted that governments increasingly cooperated to help target exiled dissidents. In 74% of the incidents of transnational repression that took place in 2021, both the origin and the host countries were rated “not free” by Freedom House.

    Awareness of this type of cross-border action is growing. Both human rights groups and academics are now systematically tracking attacks. And several governments, including the US and Australia, have committed to taking action to combat these practices. A bill was introduced in the US Senate in 2023 to specifically tackle transnational repression by foreign governments in the US and abroad.

    I studied the increasing levels of cooperation in transnational repression by different nations in a recent article published in International Studies Quarterly. We look at why states, which are normally reluctant to collaborate, do so when it comes to silencing dissidents abroad.



    Read more:
    Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism

    Historical lessons?

    There are historical parallels between what happened during Operation Condor in South America and what’s happening today. Operation Condor was a system that Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay started using in late 1975 with the backing of the US. It was aimed at persecuting exiles. Operation Condor was the most sophisticated, institutionalised and coordinated scheme ever established to persecute citizens who had been forced to flee their homeland.

    Journalist Pouria Zeraati was attacked.

    Three factors were found to explain why this form of repression was able to be used at the time and why countries agreed to cooperate.

    First, politically active exiled dissidents constituted a threat to the reputation and survival of South America’s ruling juntas. They successfully named and shamed the region’s military regimes, discrediting their international public images given the human rights violations perpetrated and resulting in the US cutting funding to Uruguay in 1976 and Argentina in 1977.

    Second, these autocracies, which came to power between 1964 and 1976, drew inspiration from the US National Security Doctrine and the French School of Counterinsurgency. In both, security was considered more important than human rights.

    The history of Operation Condor.

    Finally, two countries catalysed efforts to cooperate in this kind of action. Chile pushed for the formal creation of Operation Condor in 1975. Argentina then expanded it to include Brazil, Peru and Ecuador between 1976 and 1978. This significantly widened Operation Condor’s scope for action to most of South America.

    Why Operation Condor is relevant?

    Operation Condor was the only regional organisation to be created to hunt down political opponents across borders. Lessons from this historical experience are relevant today.

    Cooperation in transnational repression in the last few years also occurs in regional clusters, as shown by research by academics and human rights groups. These groups of nations include, for instance, Belarus, Russia and Tajikistan, as well as Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

    In recent years these south-east Asian countries have closely collaborated to persecute, arbitrarily arrest and forcibly repatriate exiled activists and refugees, according to the media, the UN and international human rights NGOs.

    Second, one or more countries, predominantly Russia and Turkey, have worked together on efforts to repress critics over a significant period.

    Third, some regional organisations, of authoritarian nature, often enable cooperation in transnational repression, or at least create unsafe environments for migrating dissidents.

    The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Gulf Cooperation Council are examples, since they “have expanded their collective efforts against exiles”, according to some sources. SCO member states, especially Russia, China and Uzbekistan, have repeatedly used the organisation to pursue political opponents abroad and persecute them as criminals. This shows the organisation’s role as a platform for the diffusion and consolidation of authoritarian principles.

    Countries engaging in this kind of political repression today often wish to silence dissent wherever it occurs.

    These countries are acting in complete disregard of established principles of international law and international relations, such as sovereignty and the protection of refugees, and seem to be expanding their operations. It remains to be seen if there’s anything that the rest of the international community can do to reverse this terrifying trend, but at least it has started trying.

    Francesca Lessa’s projects “Operation Condor” and “Plancondor.org” received funding from the University of Oxford John Fell Fund, The British Academy/Leverhulme Trust, the University of Oxford ESRC Impact Acceleration Account, the European Commission under Horizon 2020, the Open Society Foundations, and UCL Public Policy through Research England’s QR-PSF funding. Lessa is also the Honorary President of the Observatorio Luz Ibarburu, a network of human rights NGOs in Uruguay.

    – ref. Autocratic nations are reaching across borders to silence critics – and so far nothing seems to stop them – https://theconversation.com/autocratic-nations-are-reaching-across-borders-to-silence-critics-and-so-far-nothing-seems-to-stop-them-233037

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: In despair about Earth’s future? Look for green shoots

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Heather Alberro, Lecturer in Sustainability, University of Manchester

    A white stork nesting in the city. Dr.MYM/Shutterstock

    As species go extinct and a habitable climate teeters, it’s understandable to feel despair.

    Some of the world’s top climate scientists have expressed their mounting hopelessness at the prospect of reaching 3°C by 2100. This hellish scenario, well in excess of the 1.5°C countries agreed to aim for when they signed the 2015 Paris agreement, would indeed spell disaster for much of life on Earth.

    As a lecturer in sustainability, I often hear my anxious students bemoan the impossibility of building a way out of ecological collapse. However, the greatest danger is fatalism, and assuming, as Margaret Thatcher claimed, that “there is no alternative”.

    There is a vast ocean of possibility for transforming the planet. Increasingly, cities are in the vanguard of forging more sustainable worlds.

    Car-free futures

    Since the early 1900s, the car has afforded a sense of freedom for some while infringing on the freedoms of others.

    Cars, particularly SUVs, are a major source of air pollution and CO₂ emissions globally. Motorways and car parking spaces have transformed Earth’s terrain and monopolised public space. For those of us in industrialised societies, it is difficult to imagine life without cars.

    Global sales of electric vehicles are projected to continue rising. Yet even these supposed solutions to an unsustainable transport sector require a lot of space and materials to make and maintain.

    With cities set to host nearly 70% of all people by 2050, space and livability are key concerns. As such, cities across Europe and beyond are beginning to reclaim their streets.

    Between 2019 and 2022, the number of low-emissions zones, areas that regulate the most polluting vehicles in order to improve air quality and help to protect public health, expanded by 40% in European cities. Research suggests that policies to restrict car use such as congestion charges and raised parking fees can further discourage their use. However, providing viable and accessible alternatives is also crucial: as such, many cities are also widening walkways, building bike lanes and making public transport cheaper and easier to access.

    An estimated 80,000 cars used to pass daily through the centre of Pontevedra, a city in north-west Spain. Mayor Miguel Anxo Fernandez Lores instituted a ban on cars in 1999 and removed on-street parking spaces. The city has since drastically reduced air pollution and hasn’t had a vehicular death in over a decade.

    Civic life in Pontevedra has benefited from the absence of cars.
    Trabantos/Shutterstock

    Living cities

    Cement and concrete are widely used to make major infrastructure such as roads, bridges, buildings and dams. The cement industry accounts for up to 9% of global emissions. Moreover, the open-pit quarrying of limestone, a key ingredient in cement, involves removing topsoil and vegetation which rips up ecosystems and biodiversity and increases flooding risks.

    A burgeoning “depaving” movement originated in Portland, Oregon in 2008 and has removed concrete and asphalt from cities including Chicago, London and several cities across Canada, replacing it with plants and soil.

    Depaving is an example of the wider urban rewilding movement which aims to restore natural habitats and expand green spaces in cities for social and ecological wellbeing.

    Multispecies coexistence

    A new report by the World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) has documented an average 73% decline in the abundance of monitored wildlife populations globally since 1970. Despite such unfathomable losses, many cities are being transformed into oases of multispecies life.

    Prized for their fur, beavers were hunted to extinction in the UK by the 16th century. Their water damming activities create homes for other species such as birds and invertebrates and help prevent flooding. Eurasian beavers have been thriving in Sweden, Norway and Germany since their reintroduction in the 1920s and 1960s, respectively.

    In 2022, beavers were designated a protected species in England. In October 2023, London saw its first baby beaver in over 400 years.

    Melbourne has launched a project to create a 18,000 square-metre garden in the city by 2028, with at least 20 local plant species for each square metre. An 8-kilometre long pollinator corridor is also being created to allow wildlife to travel between 200 interconnected gardens and further help local pollinators flourish.

    Living alongside larger predators brings unique challenges. However, as with any functional relationship, respect is key for coexistence. Los Angeles and Mumbai are two major cities that are learning to live alongside mountain lions and leopards. Local officials have launched public education initiatives urging people to, for instance, maintain a safe distance from the animals and not walk alone outside at night. In cases where wildlife conflicts occur, such as between wolves and farmers who have lost livestock, non-lethal methods such as wolf-proof fences and guard dogs have been found to be more effective solutions than culls.

    India’s leopard population appears to be rising.
    Nedla/Shutterstock

    Environmental justice now

    Cities, particularly in wealthy countries, are only a small part of the story.

    At just over 500 years old, the modern capitalist system, imposed globally through European colonialism, is a relatively recent development. Despite its influence, the visionary author Ursula K. Le Guin reminded us that “any human power can be resisted and changed by human beings”.

    Indigenous peoples numbering 476 million across 90 countries represent thousands of distinct cultures that persist as living proof of the enduring possibilities of radically different ways of living.

    An online database tracks 4,189 environmental justice movements worldwide. From multi-tribe Indigenous Amazonian alliances keeping illegal miners at bay, to countless local communities and activist groups resisting the construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure. Over the last few years, these place-based struggles have either stopped, stalled or forced the suspension of at least one-quarter of planned extractive projects.

    These examples demonstrate hope in action, and suggest that the radical changes required to avert climate and ecological breakdown are often a simple question of will and collective resolve.

    Reality, like the future, is never fixed. Whether the world is 2, 3 or 4-degrees warmer by 2100 depends on actions taken today. The terrain ahead will be full of challenges. But, glimmers of a better world are already here.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Heather Alberro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In despair about Earth’s future? Look for green shoots – https://theconversation.com/in-despair-about-earths-future-look-for-green-shoots-232114

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Threads: the harrowing 1984 BBC docudrama is back on our screens – scary but appropriate viewing for our uncertain times

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Lacy, Senior lecturer, Politics, Philosophy, and Religion, Lancaster University

    The BBC docudrama Threads shocked audiences in 1984. BBC

    Threads – the horrific film made by the BBC in 1984 depicting the impact of a nuclear war on a city in the north of England – was recently made available to stream. It’s a brutal and grim tour of the aftermath of nuclear war, which anyone who viewed it when originally aired may struggle to watch again. But, 40 years on, the film is probably regarded more as an unpleasant artefact from a more dangerous time.

    These days we consume many types of apocalyptic entertainment in film and video games, exploring all types of societal collapse: ecological disaster, manufactured pandemics, alien invasions, cyber-attacks and dangerous AI. But Threads is particularly chilling in its attempt to give a realistic account of what could happen if cold war tensions escalated. I remember watching it as a teenager in a lesson at school and once was enough for me.

    But in the winter of 2024, it is difficult to escape the regular warnings about the escalating tensions around the world. There are widespread fears that a catastrophic series of diplomatic breakdowns and strategic miscalculations could result in a 2024 version of the events depicted in the 1984 film.

    Since the end of the cold war, much of international conflict has played out below the threshold of open war, in the realms of cyberwarfare, espionage and subversion. Or in other attempts at economic and political tactics intended to influence and manipulate. But there is clearly something very alarming about the situation since the invasion of Ukraine and the escalation of events in the Middle East since October 7.

    What makes the current situation so alarming is the sense that “great powers” or states with nuclear weapons could be pulled into conflicts that might quickly escalate beyond any diplomatic or political control. It’s hoped that leaders on all sides are determined to deter or contain conflict. But wars are shaped by accidents, miscalculations and errors of strategic judgement.

    Would Vladimir Putin have sent his troops into Ukraine if he could see how the Ukrainians and the international community would react? Now he has turned to making regular threats about Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

    So, there is a sense of unease about the current possibility of events getting out of control – of events escalating from brutal and horrific local or regional conflicts into a full blown global conflict. To be sure, there will (hopefully) be a continual diplomatic effort focused in ensuring that events in Ukraine or the Middle East do not escalate to the point where there the world is drawn into a wider war involving weapons of mass destruction.

    Rational v irrational actors

    But one of the concerns is that the situation in the 2020s is markedly difficult to geopolitical tensions during the cold war. The influential “realists” of international relations – academics like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt – argued that one of the reasons that the US should not invade Iraq was that Saddam Hussein was a “rational actor” whose behaviour could be contained and controlled. Iraq could be controlled through what they saw as “vigilant surveillance” and containment.

    But the fear in 2024 is that the world isn’t populated by rational actors as it was during the cold war, with its doctrine of mutually assured destruction.

    Putin is viewed as a leader increasingly detached from reality – surrounded by advisers too afraid to give him advice that he might not want to hear. In strategic terms, the fear he is that he might escalate to de-escalate. He might attempt a nuclear strike to deter events escalating further – an horrific warning signal that will end any attempts to challenge him.

    Some would question whether Iran may be led by men who are also detached from reality and might actually be looking for an apocalyptic showdown with Israel and the west. This depiction of irrational leaders might be more a reflection of our panic and paranoia than a credible assessment of leadership in these states. And of course, some would argue that the liberal world has its fair share of irrational actors.

    An interconnected world

    So, are we in a time or dangerous irrational actors where deterrence will not prevent a potentially apocalyptic escalation in global events? Security analysts and policymakers often refer to what is known as “deterrence by entanglement”. There are various types of deterrence but one of the geopolitical differences between now and the cold war is the level of interconnection between states that might have diplomatic, economic and political tensions.

    How many Chinese students study in UK universities? How much property in London is owned by Russian citizens? Societies are entangled to such a degree that a launching a nuclear strike on London would not only destroy investments, it might also kill your own citizens. Then there is the question of geographical location and nuclear strikes: would you risk the ecological blowback from nuclear strikes in a way that might endanger your territory, ecology and citizens – for generations?

    Leaders make mistakes and situations escalate in dangerous and unpredictable ways. But one of the lessons of international relations – going back to the works of Sun Tzu and Machiavelli – is that deception is a vital part of statecraft and warfare. And the “performance” of statecraft often requires cultivating an image of irrationality as a form of rational statecraft and deterrence. Some have argued that Donald Trump’s actions and pronouncements on international affairs produce a sense of uncertainty that works as a one-man strategy of deterrence.

    But as this performance plays out, it can be terrifying to watch and experience. Let’s not forget, the history of international relations is a history of tragic and mainly avoidable accidents.

    Mark Lacy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Threads: the harrowing 1984 BBC docudrama is back on our screens – scary but appropriate viewing for our uncertain times – https://theconversation.com/threads-the-harrowing-1984-bbc-docudrama-is-back-on-our-screens-scary-but-appropriate-viewing-for-our-uncertain-times-241314

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mozambique’s 2024 elections: 9 major challenges that will face the next president

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By David Matsinhe, Losophone Research Specialist/Adjunct Professor in African Studies, Carleton University

    The incoming president of Mozambique faces an array of interconnected problems deeply rooted in historical, socioeconomic and political dynamics. He must balance meeting immediate needs with long-term structural change.

    The 9 October 2024 general election was Mozambique’s seventh since multiparty elections were introduced in 1994. The results are expected to be announced within two weeks from the poll date. International media reports indicate that the ruling Frelimo and its presidential candidate Daniel Chapo are poised for a landslide victory.

    This is likely to be confirmed by the electoral commission even though local media have pointed to widespread and brazen ballot stuffing and fake observers, among other irregularities, in favour of Frelimo.

    Frelimo has been in power since independence in 1975.

    Can the resource-rich but impoverished nation of 35 million expect a redirection of policies and strategies under Chapo to address its multifaceted crises?

    Chapo (47) was born after independence and promises to act with integrity. But the old guard placed him in power to protect and promote their interests.

    Mozambique’s crises stem largely from systemic corruption under Frelimo. It has prioritised political elites over national welfare. Its decades of mismanagement, embezzlement and patronage have left institutions weak and unable to address pressing social and economic issues.

    The country is fragmented. The government has neglected the development of inclusive, accountable governance and equitable infrastructure. Regional disparities are the result. This is especially so in Cabo Delgado province, where disenfranchised citizens have become vulnerable to extremist groups.

    This lack of unity and long-term planning has created a fragile state unable to withstand mounting internal and external pressures.

    As a Mozambican social scientist and human rights specialist, I have spent my adult life wrestling with my country’s complex economic, social, cultural and political dynamics.



    Read more:
    9 million Mozambicans live below the poverty line – what’s wrong with the national budget and how to fix it

    Mozambique stands at a critical point. The new president must confront the deep-rooted challenges with determination and comprehensive reforms.

    In my view, the new leader faces nine key challenges. These are a deep economic crisis, an Islamic insurgency in the north, climate change, drug trafficking, unemployment, corruption, poor infrastructure, kidnappings and unpaid public sector salaries.

    Economic crisis

    Mozambique’s economy has deteriorated, primarily because of structural imbalances and a dependence on extractive industries. GDP growth has declined sharply, from 7% in 2014 to 1.8% in 2023.

    Slower growth has resulted in over 62% of Mozambicans living in poverty.

    A public debt crisis was worsened by the “hidden debt scandal”: the discovery in 2016 of US$2 billion in previously undisclosed debts the government had guaranteed without the knowledge of parliament.

    This has limited the state’s capacity to invest in education, health and sanitation.

    Economic revival must be accompanied by targeted interventions to promote inclusive growth. All Mozambicans must benefit from economic activities to alleviate poverty.

    Insurgency

    Since 2017, extremist groups have used local grievances and regional disenfranchisement to destabilise northern Mozambique. Over 4,000 people have died. Nearly a million have been displaced.

    The conflict is rooted in socio-economic inequalities, made worse by the extraction of natural gas and rubies. Global and local actors compete for control.

    The new president’s role in mediating this crisis requires nuance. He must address the historical marginalisation of Cabo Delgado while balancing military and developmental responses.



    Read more:
    Between state and mosque: new book explores the turbulent history of Islamic politics in Mozambique

    He must also write a new chapter in the country’s deplorable human rights record. This is marked by widespread violations of the right to life, physical integrity, freedom from arbitrary detention, and freedoms of expression, assembly and the press.

    Climate change crisis

    Climate change intersects with Mozambique’s vulnerabilities. The country has been repeatedly struck by increasingly devastating severe cyclones, such as Idai and Kenneth in 2019.

    Deforestation has made it more fragile, reducing its capacity to mitigate flood and erosion risks.

    The new president will need to put in place policies that incorporate mitigation and adaptation strategies. He will also need to secure multilateral cooperation.

    Drug trafficking

    Drug trafficking networks have entrenched themselves. Porous borders, weak governance structures and endemic corruption have made Mozambique a corridor for heroin and cocaine trafficking.

    The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that US$100 million worth of heroin passes through Mozambique annually. This fuels informal economies that sustain political patronage networks.

    Tackling the problem requires stronger state institutions. It also requires regional and global collaboration to disrupt the transnational flow of narcotics.

    Unemployment

    Joblessness stands at over 70%, affecting youth in particular. Youth disenfranchisement risks perpetuating cycles of poverty, social instability and potential radicalisation.

    Policies promoting vocational training and entrepreneurship are essential. So is investment in labour-intensive sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing.

    Corruption

    Pervasive corruption erodes public trust and stifles economic innovation. New efforts to combat corruption must go beyond superficial reforms. They must uproot the power structures that sustain these systems.

    Poor infrastructure

    Infrastructure is in disrepair. Urban roads are crumbling, public services are inadequate and electricity blackouts are frequent. Rural regions lack basic services such as clean water and healthcare.

    The next president will need to launch an ambitious infrastructure overhaul to improve living conditions and stimulate economic growth.

    Kidnappings

    Kidnappings, especially targeting the wealthy and business people, have created widespread fear and instability. The crime disrupts business operations and deters foreign investment, further harming economic growth.

    The high-profile nature of kidnappings suggests collusion between criminal networks and law enforcement as well as inefficiencies in the justice system.

    The persistence of kidnappings reflects broader governance issues. These include limited state capacity to respond effectively to organised crime.

    Unpaid public servants

    Delays in salary payments for public servants have worsened economic and social problems. The delays reduce public workers’ purchasing power. This has affected household consumption and local economies.

    Morale among employees is sapped, harming productivity and eroding trust in government institutions.



    Read more:
    Mozambique’s transgender history is on display in a powerful photo exhibition

    The new president must make public sector reforms. This includes auditing finances, improving revenue collection, enforcing fiscal discipline, promoting merit-based appointments, implementing probity laws, strengthening anti-corruption bodies, and diversifying the economy.

    The future of Mozambique rests on the ability of its next leader to address these profound and intertwined crises. It’s a huge task.

    Whoever it is will have to break from the Frelimo mould, reverse the damage done and set the country on a new path of clean governance, peace and inclusive economic growth.

    David Matsinhe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mozambique’s 2024 elections: 9 major challenges that will face the next president – https://theconversation.com/mozambiques-2024-elections-9-major-challenges-that-will-face-the-next-president-240923

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –