Category: Statistics

MIL-OSI USA: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 2025

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Deficit:	$131.4 Billion	+34.0%°
Exports:	$269.8 Billion	+1.2%°
Imports:	$401.2 Billion	+10.0%°
Next release: Thursday, April 3, 2025 (°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 6, 2025

Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)

January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports.

The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5 billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion.

Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $64.5 billion, or 96.5 percent, from January 2024. Exports increased $10.6 billion or 4.1 percent. Imports increased $75.2 billion or 23.1 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages (exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit increased $19.2 billion to $102.6 billion for the three months ending in January.

Average exports increased $1.2 billion to $270.0 billion in January.
Average imports increased $20.4 billion to $372.5 billion in January.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $37.1 billion from the three months ending in January 2024.

Average exports increased $11.4 billion from January 2024.
Average imports increased $48.5 billion from January 2024.

Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $2.7 billion to $172.8 billion in January.

Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $2.8 billion.

Capital goods increased $4.2 billion.
- Civilian aircraft increased $1.1 billion.
- Semiconductors increased $0.7 billion.
- Computers increased $0.5 billion.
- Civilian aircraft engines increased $0.5 billion.
Consumer goods increased $1.7 billion.
- Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.8 billion.
- Jewelry increased $0.6 billion.
Other goods decreased $1.3 billion. (See the “Notice” for more information.)
Foods, feeds, and beverages decreased $1.0 billion.
- Soybeans decreased $0.8 billion.

Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.6 billion to $97.0 billion in January.

Financial services increased $0.2 billion.
Telecommunications, computer, and information services increased $0.1 billion.
Other business services increased $0.1 billion.
Transport increased $0.1 billion.
Maintenance and repair services increased $0.1 billion.
Government goods and services decreased $0.3 billion.

Imports (exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods increased $36.2 billion to $329.5 billion in January.

Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $36.2 billion.

Industrial supplies and materials increased $23.1 billion.
- Finished metal shapes increased $20.5 billion.
Consumer goods increased $6.0 billion.
- Pharmaceutical preparations increased $5.2 billion.
- Cell phones and other household goods increased $1.2 billion.
Capital goods increased $4.6 billion.
- Computers increased $3.0 billion.
- Computer accessories increased $1.2 billion.
- Telecommunications equipment increased $1.1 billion.

Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services increased $0.4 billion to $71.7 billion in January.

Charges for the use of intellectual property increased $0.2 billion.
Other business services increased $0.1 billion.
Travel decreased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2017 Dollars – Census Basis (exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit increased $30.8 billion, or 27.5 percent, to $142.9 billion in January, compared to a 27.4 percent increase in the nominal deficit.

Real exports of goods increased $0.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, to $142.3 billion, compared to a 1.6 percent increase in nominal exports.
Real imports of goods increased $31.4 billion, or 12.4 percent, to $285.2 billion, compared to a 12.5 percent increase in nominal imports.

Revisions

Exports and imports of goods and services were revised for July through December 2024 to incorporate more comprehensive and updated quarterly and monthly data. In addition to these revisions, seasonally adjusted data for all months of 2024 were revised so that the totals of the seasonally adjusted months equal the annual totals.

Revisions to December exports

Exports of goods were revised down $0.1 billion.
Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.

Revisions to December imports

Imports of goods were revised up $0.2 billion.
Imports of services were revised down $0.6 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (exhibit 19)

The January figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Netherlands ($4.3), South and Central America ($4.3), Belgium ($0.6), and Brazil ($0.6). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.7), European Union ($25.5), Switzerland ($22.8), Mexico ($15.5), Ireland ($12.4), Vietnam ($11.9), Canada ($11.3), Germany ($7.6), Taiwan ($7.5), Japan ($7.4), South Korea ($5.4), India ($4.2), Italy ($3.5), Malaysia ($2.5), Australia ($2.0), Hong Kong ($1.4), France ($1.0), Singapore ($1.0), Israel ($0.6), United Kingdom ($0.5), and Saudi Arabia ($0.1).

The deficit with Switzerland increased $9.8 billion to $22.8 billion in January. Exports increased $0.6 billion to $1.8 billion and imports increased $10.3 billion to $24.6 billion.
The deficit with Ireland increased $6.2 billion to $12.4 billion in January. Exports increased less than $0.1 billion to $1.2 billion and imports increased $6.2 billion to $13.6 billion.
The surplus with South and Central America increased $0.7 billion to $4.3 billion in January. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $18.0 billion and imports decreased $0.5 billion to $13.7 billion.

Goods and Services by Selected Countries and Areas: Quarterly – Balance of Payments Basis (exhibit 20)

Statistics on trade in goods and services by country and area are only available quarterly, with a one-month lag. With this release, fourth-quarter figures are now available.

The fourth-quarter figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($19.1), Netherlands ($18.6), Australia ($7.1), Singapore ($7.0), Brazil ($7.0), United Kingdom ($4.9), Hong Kong ($4.3), Saudi Arabia ($3.4), and Belgium ($1.5). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($68.8), Mexico ($48.0), European Union ($38.5), Vietnam ($32.7), Germany ($21.1), Taiwan ($18.9), Japan ($17.0), Switzerland ($15.7), India ($13.2), South Korea ($12.5), Italy ($11.1), Canada ($10.5), Ireland ($7.8), Malaysia ($7.4), France ($4.5), and Israel ($2.1).

The deficit with Switzerland increased $12.1 billion to $15.7 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $1.6 billion to $18.8 billion and imports increased $10.6 billion to $34.5 billion.
The deficit with India increased $3.4 billion to $13.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $0.2 billion to $20.6 billion and imports increased $3.2 billion to $33.8 billion.
The deficit with the European Union decreased $5.8 billion to $38.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports decreased $0.9 billion to $164.8 billion and imports decreased $6.7 billion to $203.3 billion.

All statistics referenced are seasonally adjusted; statistics are on a balance of payments basis unless otherwise specified. Additional statistics, including not seasonally adjusted statistics and details for goods on a Census basis, are available in exhibits 1-20b of this release. For information on data sources, definitions, and revision procedures, see the explanatory notes in this release. The full release can be found at www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/index.html or www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services. The full schedule is available in the Census Bureau’s Economic Briefing Room at www.census.gov/economic-indicators/ or on BEA’s website at www.bea.gov/news/schedule.

Next release: April 3, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2025

Notice

Impact of Canada Border Services Agency’s (CBSA) Release of CBSA Assessment and Revenue Management (CARM)

The CBSA introduced a new accounting system (CARM) on October 21, 2024. As a result, importers in Canada have experienced delays in filing shipment information. These delays affected the compilation of statistics on U.S. exports of goods to Canada for September 2024 through January 2025, which are derived from data compiled by Canada through the United States – Canada Data Exchange. A dollar estimate of the filing backlog is included in estimates for late receipts and, following the U.S. Census Bureau’s customary practice for late receipt estimates, is included in the export end-use category “Other goods” as well as in exports to Canada. This estimate will be replaced with the actual transactions reported by the Harmonized System classification in June 2025 with the release of “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, Annual Revision.” Until then, please refer to the supplemental spreadsheet “CARM Exports to Canada Corrections,” which provides a breakdown of the late receipts by 1-digit end-use category for statistics through 2024. This spreadsheet will be updated as late export transactions are received to reflect reassignments from the initial “Other goods” category to the appropriate 1-digit end-use category. Any 2025 impacts will be revised in June 2026.

If you have questions or need additional information, please contact the Census Bureau, Economic Indicators Division, International Trade Macro Analysis Branch, on 800-549-0595, option 4, or at eid.international.trade.data@census.gov.

Upcoming Changes to the Real (Chained-Dollar) Series

Effective with the release of the February 2025 statistics on April 3, 2025, the Census Bureau will continue to use the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes to calculate the chained-dollar series (exhibits 10 and 11). The BLS will be implementing changes to the indexes with the release of the February 2025 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes on March 18, 2025. The changes to the indexes could impact the chained-dollar values. Please refer to the BLS notice for additional information on the Upcoming Change to Data Source for Import and Export Price Indexes: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact the Census Bureau, Economic Statistical Methods Division, International Trade Statistical Methods Branch, on 301-763-3080.

Upcoming Updates to Goods and Services

With the releases of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” report (FT-900) and the FT-900 Annual Revision on June 5, 2025, statistics on trade in goods, on both a Census basis and a balance of payments (BOP) basis, will be revised beginning with 2020 and statistics on trade in services will be revised beginning with 1999. The revised statistics for goods on a BOP basis and for services will also be included in the “U.S. International Transactions, 1st Quarter 2025 and Annual Update” report and in the international transactions interactive database, both to be released by BEA on June 24, 2025.

Revised statistics on trade in goods will reflect:

Corrections and adjustments to previously published not seasonally adjusted statistics for goods on a Census basis.
End-use reclassifications of several commodities.
Recalculated seasonal and trading-day adjustments.
Newly available and revised source data on BOP adjustments, which are adjustments that BEA applies to goods on a Census basis to convert them to a BOP basis. See the “Goods (balance of payments basis)” section in the explanatory notes for more information.

Revised statistics on trade in services will reflect:

Newly available and revised source data, primarily from BEA surveys of international services.
Corrections and adjustments to previously published not seasonally adjusted statistics.
Recalculated seasonal adjustments.
Revised temporal distributions of quarterly source data to monthly statistics. See the “Services” section in the explanatory notes for more information.

A preview of BEA’s 2025 annual update of the International Transactions Accounts will be available in the Survey of Current Business in April 2025.

If you have questions or need additional information, please contact the Census Bureau, Economic Indicators Division, International Trade Macro Analysis Branch, on (800) 549-0595, option 4, or at eid.international.trade.data@census.gov or BEA, Balance of Payments Division, at InternationalAccounts@bea.gov.

MIL OSI USA News –

March 7, 2025

MIL-OSI: South Beach, Miami is not the most popular beach destination in the world but ranks 2nd according to the Travel App, Visited
Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

TORONTO, March 06, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The travel map app, Visited, publishes the most popular beach destinations as per international beach goers.

The popular travel app, Visited, which is published by Arriving In High Heels Corporation, has published a list of the top 10 most popular beach destinations in the world. Based on popular beaches, the most popular locations are in Mexico and the Mediterranean. The popular beach destinations around the world include:
1. Cancun, Mexico
2. South Beach, Miami, USA
3. Majorca, Spain
4. Cannes, France
5. Tenerife, Spain
Of the US beach destinations, only South Beach, Miami and Venice Beach made it to the top 20. In the top 50 there is also Waikiki Beach, Santa Monica, Clearwater Beach, Panama City Beach, Atlantic City, Na Pali Coast and Virginia Beach.

The full beach destination list ranked by popularity is available in the travel map app, Visited, which can be downloaded for free on iOS or Android. The app which once started as a simple way to color in the places users have been on a map, has expanded to include the popular travel list feature. Users can select ‘where I’ve been’ or add it to their ‘bucketlist’ to see personalized travel stats and to help plan future travels. There are over 175 travel lists available including national parks, cruise ports, snorkeling destinations, ski destinations, golf locations and even festivals around the world. The apps other features include a personalized travel map, ability to print a personalized travel poster, see regional information on a map by states visited and see personalized travel stats.

To learn more about the Visited Map App, visit https://visitedapp.com.

About Visited Travel App
Popular travel map app Visited was designed to keep track of all countries, regions and cities that you have been to or want to visit in the future. A new feature of the app allows users to receive professionally printed posts of their travels. To help keep track of all the unique places and experiences users had, they can select destinations by travel categories. There are over 175 travel lists to choose from including ski destinations, golf destinations, national parks and more. For those that have a hard time choosing where to go next, Visited displays countries based on the total places of interest and experiences they want to do in that country, taking away the guess work of where to next. It is the ultimate travel bucket list and travel tracking app.

About Arriving In High Heels Corporation
Arriving In High Heels Corporation is a mobile app company with apps including Pay Off Debt, X-Walk and Visited, their most popular app.

Contact:
Anna Kayfitz
anna@arrivinginhighheels.com

The MIL Network –
March 7, 2025
MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Healthcare pricing report welcomed

Source: Hong Kong Information Services

The Health Bureau today welcomed the release of a Consumer Council report that gives recommendations aimed at improving price transparency in the private healthcare sector.

Highlighting that the Government plans to consult the sector this year with a view to devising legislation to enhance private healthcare price transparency, the bureau said the council’s report will be taken into account.

Hong Kong has a dual-track healthcare system that encompasses both public and private provision. Public healthcare offers a safety net, while private healthcare gives citizens a choice of providers.

The bureau said that enhancing the value and efficiency of private healthcare while maintaining its quality will be crucial to keeping Hong Kong at the forefront of global healthcare standards and establishing the city as an international health and medical innovation hub.

It highlighted, however, that an imbalance in resource deployment between the public and private healthcare sectors has arisen. Specifically, the public healthcare system provides 90% of inpatient and specialist medical care while employing roughly only half of the city’s medical manpower.

The bureau added that greater private healthcare price transparency will allow citizens to be better informed with regard to pricing when making medical decisions. Raising confidence in private healthcare services may in turn have the result of alleviating demand for public healthcare services.

In 2016, the Government – together with the Private Hospitals Association – rolled out a Pilot Programme for Enhancing Price Transparency for Private Hospitals. This involved implementing three measures: publicising fee schedules for major chargeable items; providing budget estimates for 30 common treatments/procedures; and publicising historical billing statistics for 30 common treatments/procedures.

Improvements have been made to the pilot programme since its introduction. The Government has also set up a dedicated website to publish statistics from all private hospitals, including annual discharge numbers for specified treatments/procedures, average lengths of stay, and actual billing data for the 50th and 90th percentiles for each specified treatment/procedure.

The bureau said it will take the operational experience garnered from the pilot programme as it prepares to launch its consultation on private healthcare price transparency legislation.

MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

March 7, 2025
MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Health Bureau responds to Consumer Council’s recommendations on price transparency in healthcare

Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

Health Bureau responds to Consumer Council’s recommendations on price transparency in healthcare
******************************************************************************************

In view of media enquiries concerning the Consumer Council’s recommendations on price transparency in healthcare, the Health Bureau today (March 6) gave the following response: The Health Bureau welcomes the release of the Consumer Council’s report entitled “Price Transparency in Healthcare: Fostering Consumer Trust and Value”, which presents recommendations for improving the existing private healthcare sector and enhancing price transparency. As announced in the Chief Executive’s 2024 Policy Address, the Government plans to consult the sector within this year to explore legislating for enhancing private healthcare price transparency. The Government will take into account the Consumer Council’s report when formulating the relevant proposal for consultation purposes. Hong Kong has a dual-track healthcare system that encompasses both the public and the private sectors. Public healthcare has long been acting as a safety net, while private healthcare offers more choices to citizens with higher affordability. The Government considers the private healthcare sector an integral part of Hong Kong’s healthcare system. As such, enhancing the value efficiency of private healthcare and maintaining high-quality healthcare services are crucial to keeping Hong Kong at the forefront of global healthcare standards and developing the city into an international health and medical innovation hub. However, there has always been an imbalance in resource deployment between public and private healthcare. Public healthcare services are heavily subsidised at nearly 98 per cent, catering for 90 per cent inpatient and specialist medical care in Hong Kong while employing only roughly half of the manpower of medical practitioners. In view of high inflation in private healthcare, enhancing private healthcare price transparency will enable citizens to become better informed about pricing and prepared for costs before making medical decisions, which builds greater confidence in using private healthcare services by citizens and alleviates the burden on public healthcare services. In 2016, the Government, together with the Hong Kong Private Hospitals Association, rolled out a Pilot Programme for Enhancing Price Transparency for Private Hospitals. It has been voluntarily participated in by all private hospitals with three measures implemented, namely (1) publicising the fee schedules of major chargeable items; (2) providing budget estimates for patients receiving 30 common treatments/procedures; and (3) publicising historical billing statistics for 30 common treatments/procedures. A number of improvements have been made to the Pilot Programme since its introduction. The Government has also set up a dedicated website (apps.orphf.gov.hk/Public/en) to publish statistics from all private hospitals, including annual discharge numbers for specified treatments/procedures, average length of stay, and actual billing data for the 50th and 90th percentiles of each specified treatment/procedure, facilitating public reference and comparison. The Health Bureau is actively preparing for the consultation exercise on legislating for private healthcare price transparency, taking into account, among others, the content of the Consumer Council’s report and the operational experience of the Pilot Programme, and will maintain liaison with various stakeholders to better uphold patient welfare in light of the actual operation of the private healthcare sector. The Health Bureau plans to announce the proposal for consultation purposes within this year.

Ends/Thursday, March 6, 2025Issued at HKT 18:05

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MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Economics: Revamped StatsAPEC Unveiled with Improved Functionality Gyeongju, Republic of Korea | 06 March 2025 APEC Secretariat The APEC Secretariat unveiled the newly revamped StatsAPEC website—a central hub designed to make it easier and quicker to access more than 120 economic and social statistics across the 21 member economies.

Source: APEC – Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

The APEC Secretariat unveiled the newly revamped StatsAPEC website—a central hub designed to make it easier and quicker to access more than 120 economic and social statistics across the 21 member economies.

Managed by the APEC Policy Support Unit, StatsAPEC offers annual data from 1989 to the present for all APEC member economies, along with aggregates for both APEC and the world.

Celebrating StatsAPEC’s 15th year with a major upgrade underscores APEC’s continued commitment to providing objective and high-quality data.

Re-engineered for improved functionality and increased user-friendliness, the upgraded StatsAPEC now integrates a new “Explore by Economy” page examining key metrics for each APEC member—serving as a quick factsheet for journalists, students, and the public. Enhanced features include a streamlined interface for intuitive navigation and customizable queries that allow users to tailor data visualizations to their specific needs.

“APEC’s revamped StatsAPEC platform marks a significant milestone in our efforts to foster an open and dynamic information ecosystem in the Asia-Pacific region,” said Eduardo Pedrosa, Executive Director of the APEC Secretariat.

“By providing high-quality, accessible data, we are empowering our member economies to make evidence-based decisions that drive sustainable growth and regional integration,” he added.

Carlos Kuriyama, Director of the APEC Policy Support Unit, emphasized the platform’s enhanced functionality and the team’s commitment to continue innovating.

“StatsAPEC is not just a data portal but also a strategic tool for fostering informed discussions and collaborative policy development across the Asia-Pacific region,” he said.

“Our team is very excited to continue bringing new features and making StatsAPEC an even better tool for everyone to use,” Kuriyama concluded.

For further details and media inquiries, please contact:
[email protected]

MIL OSI Economics –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Submissions: Business – Gebrüder Weiss: myGW successfully in use for five years

Source: Gebrüder Weiss

25,000 users already use the digital customer portal for their transport and logistics orders. myGW offers companies real-time information on all shipments and a transparent communication history.

Lauterach, March 5, 2025. The digital customer portal myGW has proved to be very popular with Gebrüder Weiss customers: within five years, the number of users among customers has risen to 25,000. Functions have been continuously developed and adapted to the needs of shipping companies with the platform providing real-time information on all goods flows.

“The decision to introduce our customer portal as part of our digital strategy was absolutely the right one. With myGW, we offer our customers easy access to their shipment data and cargo inventory at any time. Our clients appreciate this, and the usage figures speak for themselves,” says Wolfram Senger-Weiss, CEO of Gebrüder Weiss.

Digital shipment transparency in real time, delivery statistics overviews and, above all, myGW’s user-friendliness are benefits that customers value. This is also shown by the high demand for shipment tracking shared by customers with their recipients – a total of 5.6 million views in 2024. This represents an increase of 30 percent compared to the previous year. Simplified online communication and direct access to all documents for fast order processing are also popular.

Gebrüder Weiss is continuously developing the platform to provide its customers with even more transparent monitoring and analysis of their transports.

Further information about the digital customer portal myGW is available here: https://www.gw-world.com/solutions/digital-solutions/mygw

About Gebrüder Weiss

Gebrüder Weiss Holding AG, based in Lauterach, Austria, is a globally operative full-service logistics provider with about 8,600 employees at 180 company-owned locations. The company generated revenues of 2.46 billion euros in 2023.

Its portfolio encompasses transport and logistics solutions, digital services, and supply chain management. The twin strengths of digital and physical competence enable Gebrüder Weiss to respond swiftly and flexibly to customers’ needs.

The family-run organization – with a history going back more than half a millennium – has implemented a wide variety of environmental, economic, and social initiatives. Today, it is also considered a pioneer in sustainable business practices. www.gw-world.com

MIL OSI – Submitted News –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: New era of rail accountability for passengers as performance data goes live at stations
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments 2

Press release

New era of rail accountability for passengers as performance data goes live at stations

Display screens at stations will help rebuild trust with passengers as we tackle root causes of rail delays and cancellations.
data showing the punctuality of trains at individual stations across England available for the first time ever

statistics covering over 1,700 stations also show reliability of services

fulfils a commitment to transparency and to hold operators to account, improving connectivity and supporting growth as part of the Plan for Change

Passengers across England can now see how reliable their local train services are, as performance data goes live at over 1,700 stations from today (6 March 2025).

The data, broken down by operator, shows the percentage of trains cancelled and how punctual trains are at each station, marking the first time that station-level data has been available in the history of the railway. It is now live at major stations through digital screens, where possible, and at most smaller stations, passengers will be able to scan a QR code to see the data online.

This fulfils a commitment made by the department to be fully transparent with passengers, demonstrating how the railways are working and allowing the public to hold train operators to account as we bring services into public ownership.

As well as delivering more reliable, better-quality services, these reforms will catalyse economic growth through improved connectivity, delivering on the government’s Plan for Change. By holding operators to account, they will be encouraged to drive up efficiency and productivity – providing better value for money for passengers and driving forward the government’s growth mission by delivering better connectivity.

The government is determined to drive up performance, and the Rail Minister is meeting with all train operators to address concerns and demand immediate action. In response, the industry has set out a framework with clear areas of focus, including timetable resilience and staffing, to recover performance to acceptable levels.

Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, will visit Reading station today to mark the launch of the displays.

Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, said:

Today marks the beginning of a new era of rail accountability.

These displays are a step towards rebuilding trust with passengers using our railways as we continue to tackle the root causes of frustrating delays and cancellations.

Through fundamental rail reform, we’re sweeping away decades of dysfunctionality – putting passengers first, driving growth through connectivity as part of this government’s Plan for Change.

Each station’s data can also be found on the ORR’s new data portal, which contains punctuality and reliability information for all stations in Great Britain. The online data is also screen reader compatible for those with accessibility needs.

The screens also display a short commentary on work underway by the operators and Network Rail to improve performance, informing and assuring passengers of the ongoing work across their area to improve the reliability and efficiency of services.

Jacqueline Starr, Chair and Chief Executive of Rail Delivery Group, said:

We know how frustrating it is for customers when their train is cancelled or delayed. By being transparent with this data and the positive actions we’re taking, it shows how serious the industry is in putting this right by continuing to strive for improvements.

This sends a clear message to customers the rail sector is committed to improving punctuality and to find solutions to make train services more reliable.

Natasha Grice, Director at the independent watchdog, Transport Focus, said:

Passengers tell us they want a reliable, on-time train service and will welcome improvements to information about the punctuality of their service and cancellations being shared more transparently. It’s important that the industry uses this information to drive up performance.

This forms part of a wider overhaul of the railways, which will establish Great British Railways (GBR) as a new body to bring track and train together, to end years of fragmentation and waste. GBR will relentlessly focus on driving up standards for passengers and proposals for how it will run, including plans for a powerful new passenger standards watchdog, are currently under consultation.

Separately, the landmark Public Ownership Act will improve services and save taxpayers up to £150 million a year that was previously given to private shareholders, with the first services being brought in as soon as May 2025.

The government will deliver change that can be felt, driving growth across the country by ensuring passengers can use the railways to get to work, school, appointments and see friends and family with ease.

Rail media enquiries

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Published 6 March 2025
MIL OSI United Kingdom –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Government bolsters employment support to unlock work for sick and disabled people
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments 2

Press release

Government bolsters employment support to unlock work for sick and disabled people

Work will be unlocked for thousands of sick and disabled people through new measures that will bolster the support offered in Jobcentres and make the welfare system more sustainable, the Department for Work and Pensions has announced today [Thursday 06 March].
New plans to improve employment support brought forward ahead of wider reform package to fix broken welfare system.

1,000 work coaches deployed to deliver intensive employment support to sick and disabled people as part of the government’s Plan for Change which will break down barriers to opportunity.

It comes as a new survey reveals scale of the broken system with nearly half of disabled people and those with a health condition saying they don’t trust DWP to support them.

The plans will see 1,000 existing Work Coaches deployed in 2025/26 to deliver intensive voluntary support to around 65,000 sick and disabled people – helping them to break down barriers to opportunity, drive growth and unlock the benefits of work.

This intensive support for people on health-related benefits – including those furthest away from work – will see Work Coaches providing tailored and personalised employment support, and help claimants access other support such as writing CVs and interview techniques. They will also access a range of DWP employment programmes to help claimants unlock work based on conversations with their Work Coaches.

The additional help will be delivered by reprioritising work coach time so they can focus on tackling economic inactivity in order to make the welfare system more sustainable. The 1,000 redeployed Work Coaches are a “downpayment” on wide-ranging plans to overhaul employment support, which are set to be unveiled in just a few weeks’ time.

It is part of the Government’s Plan for Change – which will boost living standards and grow the economy by unlocking work for the 2.8 million people who are economically inactive due to long-term sickness – the highest in the G7 – and bring down spending on incapacity benefits which is expected to reach £70 billion by the end of this parliament.

It comes as new survey results show the current system isn’t just failing the taxpayer, it’s also failing the people it’s meant to help, with 44% of disabled people and people with a health condition believing DWP does not provide enough support to people who are out of work due to disability, ill health, or a long-term health condition.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Rt Hon Liz Kendall MP said:

We inherited a broken welfare system that is failing sick and disabled people, is bad for the taxpayer, and holding the economy back.

For too long, sick and disabled people have been told they can’t work, denied support, and locked out of jobs, with all the benefits that good work brings.

But many sick and disabled people want and can work, with the right support. And we know that good work is good for people – for their living standards, for their mental and physical health, and for their ability to live independently.

We’re determined to fix the broken benefits system as part of our Plan for Change by reforming the welfare system and delivering proper support to help people get into work and get on at work, so we can get Britain working and deliver our ambition of an 80% employment rate.

The data from the DWP Perceptions Survey – soon to be published in full – also shows:

35% of disabled people and people with a health condition believe DWP does not provide enough support to people of working age who are out of work, to help them get back into work.

44% of disabled people and people with a health condition don’t trust the DWP to help people reach their full career potential.

Nearly 2 in 5 (39%) disabled people and people with a health condition do not trust DWP to take its customers’ needs into account in how it provides services.

These figures follow recently released data which shows that there are over three million people on Universal Credit with no obligation to engage in work-related activity, despite over a quarter (27%) of health and disability benefit claimants believing that work could be possible in the future if their health improves and 200,000 saying they would be ready to work now.

Data also shows the number of working-age people on the health element of Universal Credit or claiming Employment Support Allowance (ESA) has risen to 3.1 million, a staggering 319% increase since the pandemic, reflecting the alarming rate at which young and working aged people are increasingly falling out of work and claiming incapacity benefits.

Behind each of these statistics is a person with hopes and ambitions, who can provide businesses with much-needed skills and experience, helping to grow our economy.

To give people the support they deserve, and restore trust and fairness to our welfare system, reforms to the welfare system are expected to be announced in just a few weeks.

These reforms will recognise that some people will be unable to work at points in their life and ensure they are provided with support while transforming the broken benefits system that:

Asks people to demonstrate their incapacity to work to access higher benefits, which also then means they fear taking steps to get into work.

Is built around a fixed “can versus can’t work” divide that does not reflect the variety of jobs, the reality of fluctuating health conditions, or the potential for people to expand what they can do, with the right support.

Directs disabled people or those with a work-limiting health condition to a queue for an assessment, followed by no contact, no expectations, and no support if the state labels them as “unable” to work.

Fails to intervene early to prevent people falling out of work and misses opportunities to support a return to work.

Pushes people towards economic inactivity due to the stark and binary divide between benefits rates and conditionality rules for jobseekers compared to those left behind on the health element of Universal Credit.

Has become defined by poor experiences and low trust among many people who use it, particularly on the assessment process.

The government’s plans to fix the broken benefit system will build on the biggest employment reforms in a generation announced in the Get Britain Working White Paper, which will empower mayors to drive down economic inactivity, deliver a Youth Guarantee so every young person is either earning or learning, and overhaul jobcentres across the country.

Former John Lewis boss Sir Charlie Mayfield is leading an independent review investigating how government and employers can work together to help disabled people and those with ill health who may be at risk of falling out work stay on in employment, with the findings of the discovery phase expected in the spring.

The government is also investing an additional £26 billion to cut NHS waiting lists and get Britain back to health and back to work.

The government has already delivered on its pledge, providing two million extra appointments in five months and as a result, around 160,000 fewer patients on waiting lists today than in July.

Teams of clinicians will also introduce new ways of working at 20 hospital sites in areas with the highest levels of economic inactivity to help patients return to the workforce faster. This is alongside the recruitment of an additional 8,500 mental health workers to ensure mental health is given the same attention as physical health.

Further information:

For the DWP Public Perception Survey, Ipsos interviewed 5,002 people aged 16+ in the UK between 16 and 29 October 2024, some of whom had used DWP services in the past year. Of the total sample, 1,705 described themselves as having a long-term health condition or disability that affects their ability to carry out day-to-day activities. Data was weighted to be representative of the general population in terms of age, gender, and region.

Latest Universal Credit data: Universal Credit statistics, 29 April 2013 to 9 January 2025 – GOV.UK

Over a quarter (27%) of health and disability benefit claimants believing that work could be possible in the future, if their health improves: Work Aspirations Survey

The Get Britain Working White Paper was published in November last year: Biggest employment reforms in a generation unveiled to Get Britain Working again – GOV.UK

The Keep Britain Working Review officially started its work in January: Ex-high street chief to keep Britain working with review into business support for disabled and long-term sick – GOV.UK

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Published 6 March 2025
MIL OSI United Kingdom –
March 6, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: OPINION: Keith Rankin – Germany’s Election 2025: Far Establishment-Right versus Far Non-Establishment-Right?

Opinion/Analysis by Keith Rankin.

Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

Germany’s important election last week struggled to make the news cycle, even on Germany’s own Deutsche Welle(DW), Germany’s equivalent of Britain’s BBC. Especially (but not only) in the international media, most of the focus was on a single party (AFD, Alliance for Germany) that was never going to have the most votes and was (almost) never going to become part of the resulting government.

Germany is the world’s third largest national economy, and traditionally dominates the politics of the European Union; an important example of this dominance was the Eurozone financial crisis of the first-half of the 2010s; a crisis that was (unsatisfactorily) resolved, thanks to a problematic and controversial program of fiscal austerity.

At present, Germany, like New Zealand, is experiencing an economic recession. (Provisional annual economic growthwas -0.2% in 2024 and -0.3% in 2023.) The cause is similar, too, in both countries: the same ‘balance the Budget’ mentality that gave the world the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Election Result

The ‘winner’ of the German election was the CDU/CSU Alliance (see Wikipedia for a better presentation of the results), which works a bit like the Liberal/National Coalition in Australia. (The Christian Social Union functions in Bavaria much like Australia’s National Party functions in rural Queensland.) CDU/CSU (like National in New Zealand) comfortably prevailed with 28.5 percent of the vote, entitling that alliance to 33 percent of the seats in the Bundestag (Parliament).

The new Chancellor (equivalent to Prime Minister) will be Friedrich Merz; a 69-year-old version of our own Christopher Luxon, as far as I can tell. He is strongly anti-Putin and pro-Israel. He has come to power well and truly under the international media radar; and will be in a strong position to exert near-absolute power, given that he will always be able to turn to the AFD (who got more votes than the Social Democrats; 20.8%) for support in the Bundestag for any measure that is not palatable to Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats. In the new Parliament, the Greens and the Left merely make up the numbers.

Merz’s Christian Democrats will form a coalition government with the losing SPD (Social Democratic Party, like Labour in New Zealand) who came third with 16.4 percent of the vote; 19 percent of the seats. Together these two parties of the establishment centre hold 52% of the new parliament, despite having less than 45% of the vote. (The outgoing minority government was a centrist coalition of the SPD and the Greens; the election was held early because the ACT-like Liberal Party – the FPD, Free Democrats – withdrew from the coalition. The FPD vote shrunk from 11.4 percent in 2021 to just 4.3 percent of the vote this time.)

The result in Germany proved to be very much like that of the United Kingdom in 2024: a slide in support for the two major parties (‘the establishment centre’), a consolidation of power to the self-same establishment centre, and a shift of that establishment centre to the right. (See my chart in Germany’s stale (and still pale) political mainstream, Evening Report 27 February 2025, for a timeline of decline.) While both countries technically underwent a change of government, in both countries the establishment has entrenched its power, and in both countries the political assumptions of the power centre have shifted to the right.

Clearly this is problematic for democracy, because historically disastrous popular support for the ‘broad church’ parties of the establishment centre has coincided with increased power to those parties, as well as policy convergence between them. Further, based on legislative electoral requirements, neither Germany nor the United Kingdom (nor the United States for that matter) will have a new government until 2029. At a time when a week is a long time in international politics, 208 weeks is an eternity. World War Three, a distinct possibility, may be in its second or third year by then.

Voting System

Germany represents the prototype upon which New Zealand’s MMP voting system is based. There are some differences though, and some recent changes.

Germany calls its all-important ‘party vote’ the ‘second vote’, disguising its importance. It is possible that many German voters do not fully appreciate its significance. The electorate vote is called ‘first vote’, and winners (by a plurality, not necessarily a majority) are elected ‘directly’. The second (party) vote is understood as a top-up vote to ensure proportionality.

Party lists are regional in Germany. And ‘ethnic parties’ may get special privileges.

In one respect the German version is more proportional than the New Zealand version of MMP, in that it no longer allows overhang MPs. (However, the most recent result is not proportional in the important sense that two parties together with less than 45% of the vote have 52% of the seats.) In MMP, one can easily imagine an overhang situation being frequent if the ‘major’ parties, which win most electorates, only get between 16% and 29% of the party vote.

In 2013, Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court decided that overhang seats were too big a threat to proportionality. So, they introduced ‘levelling seats’. In effect, it meant that if one party gets an overhang, then all parties get an overhang. The result was, in 2013, that a parliament that should have had 598 members (Deputies) ended up with 631, an effective overhang of 33. In 2017 that effective overhang grew to 111, and to 137 in 2021.

For 2025, they decided to abandon overhang representation altogether, by not guaranteeing direct election through the first vote. And they fixed the size of the Bundestag to 630 Deputies, up from a base-size of 598.

If the new German system was in place in New Zealand in 2023, then two of the Te Pati Māori electorate seats from 2023 would have been forfeit, going instead to second placed candidates; proportionality in 2023 entitled Te Pati Māori to four seats, not the six which they have. However, we should note that, if New Zealand was using the present German version of MMP, there would be no special Māori electorates, but the Māori Party would be exempt the five percent party threshold. Ethnic-privileged parties in Germany are incentivised to focus on the party vote, not the electorate vote. In Germany there is a Danish ethnic party (South Schleswig Voters’ Association) which is exempt the threshold. Its leader, Stefan Seidler, did not win his electorate. But his party got 0.15% of the nationwide vote, meaning it qualified for 0.15% of the 630 places in the Bundestag; one seat, for him.

New Zealand voters seem to have more tactical and strategic political nous than do German voters. Thus, it has been very rare for a party in New Zealand to miss out qualifying for Parliament because of getting between 4% and 5% of the party votes (noting that both countries operate a 5% disqualification threshold). In Germany, party-vote percentages just below 5% are not uncommon. In New Zealand, voters, conscious that they want to play a role in coalition-building, actively help parties near the threshold to get over the line. (Indeed, I voted New Zealand First in 2023, because I was 99.9% sure that the only post-election coalition options would be National/ACT or National/ACT/NZF; I favoured the three-party alternative, so I used my vote strategically to help block a National/ACT government.)

Indeed the latest German result was a bit like the latest New Zealand result, but with a party resembling New Zealand First (BSW) getting 4.972% of the vote, so getting no seats at all. BSW getting just a few more votes would have meant a substantial erosion of the two-party power result which eventuated. It is extremely difficult for new non-ethnic parties to get elected in Germany.

In 2025, two parties scored just under five percent of the vote. As well as the BSW, the (ACT-like) Free Democrats who had been part of the previous government, and who had indeed precipitated the early election, scored 4.3%. Indeed, fifteen percent of the votes were ‘wasted’ – that is, cast for ultimately unsuccessful parties. In New Zealand the wasted vote is typically around four percent. Indeed, this high wasted vote turns out to be a more serious challenge to proportionality in German than uncompensated overhang seats.

Both Germany and New Zealand have the contentious (in New Zealand) ‘electorate MP’ rule; the rule that’s misleadingly dubbed in New Zealand as the ‘coat-tail’ rule. (Misleading, because most MPs come in on the coat-tails of their party leadership, and always have.) In Germany the rule is stricter than in New Zealand. In order to avoid disqualification by getting less than 5% of the party vote, New Zealand requires that the party get one electorate MP. In Germany the rule (initially the same as New Zealand), since 1957 has been a requirement for three electorate MPs. In Germany in 2021, the Left Party got 4.87% of the vote and three electorate MPs; they just squeezed in, on both criteria!

Overall, United States’ Vice-President JD Vance’s pre-election comments about democracy in Germany were valid. German politics continues to exclude the non-establishment parties of both the right and the left, despite support for these parties having been increasing for a while, and now representing the majority of German voters.

Media Framing

German television electoral coverage, if DW is anything to go by, is superficial; indeed, is quite insensitive to the national and local dramas taking place. I watched the coverage live. In the hour before the Exit Poll results were announced, the discussion barely mentioned the potential dramas taking place, despite both the BSW and FDP parties pre-polling only just under the five percent threshold. The state of the economy was mentioned in a perfunctory way; clearly it was not a big issue for the political class on display.

At 6 o’clock exactly, the exit-poll results were read out, as if they were the election result. As indeed they turned out to be, more-or-less; the same as the pre-election polls. The subsequent uninterested attitude towards the actual counting of the votes was disappointing. There had been a bit of this in the 2024 UK election as well; as if the exit poll was the election result. In the UK case, Labour’s actual result (for the popular vote) was well under the exit poll result, while the Conservatives did significantly better than their exit poll tally; those facts, though, were for the nerds and psephologists.

In my observation, early votes and exit polls favour the parties supported by the political class; election day votes much less so. So, in New Zealand in 2023 it was initially looking like there would be a two-party coalition of the right. But, to the attentive, as the night wore on, the National Party percentage fell from 41% to 38%, meaning that NZF would have to be included in any resulting coalition.

I suspected something quite similar would happen in Germany, and I was only partially wrong. The exit poll results, and the subsequent counts, were presented to just one decimal place; indeed, the presentation of the numbers was very poor throughout. So, it was hard to see to what extent BSW was improving as the votes were counted.

In the exit poll, two parties – FPD and BSW – were shown as being on 4.7%, and the AFD was on 19.5%. So, the two 4.7% parties were largely written out of the subsequent discussion. We did see an early concession by the FPD, who – representing a segment of the political class – understood the polling dynamics rather well. And we did see the AFD’s Alice Weidel being asked if she was disappointed to get under 20%. Ms Weidel put on a brave face, but she did seem disappointed. When the votes were actually counted, her party got 20.8% exactly on Weidel’s prior expectations.

BSW was completely ignored. There was simply no interest in the possibility that they might reach the 5% threshold, even when the vote count had them upto 4.9%. In the end BSW reached 4.972%; so close! Out of sight, out of mind! In the official results the BSW were lumped with ‘Other Parties’. The DW election panel were too unaware to make any comments about the party itself, its philosophies, or how its possible success might influence the process of forming a coalition government. (Of particular importance was that, with just a few more votes, BSW might have given Eastern Germany a voice in a three-way coalition government.)

For DW, their perennial concern is the place of Germany within Europe and the World; they had little time to give the outside world a glimpse into the domestic lives and politics of ordinary Germans. And we heard nothing about the ‘ethnic vote’, the privileged Denmark Party notwithstanding. I suspect that many if not most of the recent immigrants who do much of the work in Germany either could not vote or did not vote. The election was about them, not for them; denizens, not citizens.

However, DW did invite on a gentleman who mildly focussed the attention of the discussants by suggesting that one of the priorities of the new Chancellor – Friedrich Merz – would be to acquire nuclear weapons! I don’t think the rest of the world had any prior insights into that; ordinary Germans were probably equally in the dark.

Who is Friedrich Merz? Who knows? It turns out that he dropped out of politics for a while, to play a leading role in BlackRock, the international acquisitions company which until recently owned New Zealand’s SolarZero (refer Update on SolarZero Liquidation by BlackRock, Scoop, 29 January 2025). Our media told us that the election was all about the “far-right” AFD Party; that is, the far non-establishment-right. We in New Zealand heard nothing about the far establishment-right; the shadowy man (or his party). Some now fear Merz will be an out-and-out warmonger. Even Al Jazeera, which can be relied upon to cover many stories about places New Zealand’s media barely touches (and in a bit more depth), had the portraits of Olaf Scholz and Alice Weidel on the screen, on 22 February, the day before the election, despite the certainty that Merz world become the new Chancellor.

In that vein, I heard a German woman interviewed in Christchurch, on RNZ on 25 February. She, disappointed with the election result, spent her whole edited four minutes railing about the AFD, as if the AFD had won. There was no useful commentary, by her or RNZ, of the actual result of Germany’s election.

Are we so shallow that we don’t care; that some of us with the loudest voices only want to rail against a non-establishment party, and to see the democratic support for alternative parties as being somehow anti-democratic?

East Germany

People of a certain age in New Zealand will remember the former East Germany; the DDR, German ‘Democratic’ Republic. Most people in Germany itself will have had knowledge of it, including the Berlin-based political staff of DW who were mostly in their thirties, forties and fifties. But the ongoing issues of Eastern Germany were barely in their mindframes.

In Eastern Germany – the former DDR – (especially outside of Berlin), support for the AFD was close to 40%, for BSW over 10%, and the Left much higher than in Western Germany. In the former East Berlin (which I visited in 1974), the Left seems to have been the most popular party. Support in the East for the establishment parties combined was between 25% and 30%, and with a lower turnout.

BSW, it turns out, is Left on economic policy and Right on social policy. And, in the German discourse, is categorised by the political class as ‘pro-Putin’. If BSW had got 5% of the vote, Merz could have tried to bring them into his government; or Merz might have turned to the Green Party instead of a ‘pro-Putin’ party. But I cannot see even the German Greens being able to govern as a junior partner to a belligerent establishment-right CDU-led government. BSW’s failure to get 5% of the vote may turn out to be one of the great ‘might-have-beens’ of Germany’s future history.

As JD Vance stated, this Eastern German situation poses a danger for democracy in Germany and in Europe. Eastern Germany is where the German state is at its most vulnerable. The majority of voters there have voted for ‘pro-Putin’ parties; and, significantly, parties prioritising the problems of economic failure over the big-politics of extranational power-plays.

The new German government, it would seem, is set to aggravate (or, at best, ignore) the problems of Germany’s ‘near-East’, while setting out to inflame the problems of Europe’s ‘far-East’.

The Debt Brake

This is Germany’s equivalent of Ruth Richardson’s 1994 ‘Fiscal Responsibility Act’ (now entrenched in New Zealand law and lore). This is the major single reason why New Zealand has had so many infrastructure problems this century, and why so many young men and families emigrated to Australia in the 1990s, with some of these emigrants coming back to New Zealand in recent years as ‘501s’.

The Merkel debt-brake is the self-inflicted single major reason why many European economies are in such a mess today; and Germany in particular. Germany is congenitally deeply committed to all kinds of financial austerity, with government financial austerity being the most ingrained. Rather than circulating as it should, money is concentrating. The debt-brake is “a German constitutional rule introduced [in 2009] during the Global Financial crisis to enforce budget discipline and reduce [public] debt loads in the country” (see Berlin Briefing, below).

Germany still has a parliamentary session under the old Parliament, before the new parliament convenes. Michaela Küfner (see Berlin Briefing, below) suggests the possibility that the old “lame duck” Parliament could remove the debt-brake from the German constitution, because she sees the make-up of the new more right-wing parliament as being less amenable to address this ‘elephant in the room’. Seems democratically dodgy to me, even talking about pushing dramatic constitutional legislation through a ‘lame duck’ parliament; like Robert Muldoon, pushing through a two-year parliamentary term for New Zealand in the week after the 1984 election!

(Two-year parliamentary terms are not unknown, by the way; the United States has a two-year term for its Congress. This is almost never mentioned when we discuss the parliamentary term in New Zealand. In the United States at present, there will be many people for whom the 2026 election cannot come fast enough; an opportunity to reign-in Donald Trump.)

Future German relations with the United States

On 27 February (28 Feb, New Zealand time) – before the fiasco in the White House on 28 February – I watched Berlin Briefing on DW. This programme is a regular panel discussion of the political editorship of Deutsche Welle.

The context here is that Friedrich Merz made an important speech the evening after the election; a speech that had the Berlin beltway – “people behind the scenes here in Berlin” – all agog. Merz said: “For me the absolute priority will be strengthening Germany so much so that we can achieve [defence] independence from the United States.”

The discussion proceeded as follows:

“How important is this anchoring in Nato of the idea of the United States as ‘The Great Protector’?” Nina Haase, DW political correspondent: “I don’t think there’s a word, ‘massive’ is not enough; people behind the scenes here in Berlin … they talk about are we going to part with the United States amicably or are we going to become enemies [my emphasis] … Europe has relied on the US so much since the Second World War is completely new thinking; just to prepare for a scenario with, if you will, would-be enemies on two sides; in the East with Russia launching a hybrid attack and then [an enemy] in the West as well.” They go on to talk about the possible need for conscription in Germany.

The political correspondents were talking like bourgeois brat adult children who had expected that they should be able to enjoy a power-lifestyle underwritten by ‘big daddy’ always there as a financial and security backstop; and just realising that the rug of entitlement might be being pulled from under them. Michaela Küfner (Chief Political Editor of DW) goes on to talk about an “existential threat from the United States”, meaning the withdrawal (and potential enmity) of the great protector. “Like your Rich Uncle from across the ocean turning against you”, she said.

Nina Haase: “Pacifism, the very word, needs to be redefined in Germany … Germans are only now able to understand that you have to have weapons in order not to use them.” She was referring to earlier generations of pacifists (like me) who saw weapons as the problem, not the solution.

Ulrike Franke: “Everything needs to change for everything to stay the same”, basically saying Germany itself may have to pursue domestic Rich Uncle policies to maintain the lifestyles of the (entitled) ten percenters.

Michaela Küfner, towards the end of the discussion: “The AFD is framing [the supporters of] the parties which will make up the coming coalition as the political class who we will challenge”. And she noted, but only at the very end of the long discussion, that the effectively disenfranchised people in Eastern Germany are “a lot more Russia-friendly”.

Maybe Merz has a plan to build employment-rich munitions factories in Eastern Germany, to address both his security concerns and the obvious political discontent arising from unemployment and fast-eroding living standards? But Merz will have to abandon his innate fiscal conservatism before he can even contemplate that; can he do a Hoover to Hitler transition? Rearmament was Hitler’s game; his means to full employment after the Depression.

Implications for Democracy

I sense that Friedrich Merz will become the face of coming German politics, just as Angela Merkel once was, and as Trump and Starmer are very much the faces of government in their countries; becoming – albeit through democratic means – similar to the autocrats that, in Eastern and Middle-Eastern countries, they [maybe not Trump] rail against.

We might note that if we look carefully at World War One and World War Two, the core conflict was Germany versus Russia. Will World War Three be the same? And which side will ‘we’ (or ‘US’) be on? In WW1 and WW2, we were on Russia’s side. (Hopefully, in the future, we can be neutral with respect to other countries’ conflicts.)

Democracy is under strain worldwide. The diminishing establishment-centre – the political and economic elites and the people with secure employment and housing who still vote for familiar major parties – is clinging on to power, and for the time-being remains more powerful than ever in Europe.

In the Europe of the early 1930s, it was the Great Depression as a period of abject political failure that resulted in the suspension of democracy. All the signs are that the same failures of democratic leadership – worldwide from the 1920s – will bring about similar consequences.

For democracies to save themselves, they should bring non-establishment voices to the table. In 2025. Germany will be another important test case, already sowing the seeds of political failure. We should be wary of demonising the far non-establishment-right while lionising the far establishment-right.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

Ref.

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Submissions: Stats NZ information release: Environmental-economic accounts: Data to 2023
Source: Statistics New Zealand

Environmental-economic accounts: Data to 2023 – 6 March 2025 – Environmental-economic accounts show how our environment contributes to our economy, the impacts of economic activity on our environment, and how we respond to environmental issues.

Stats NZ’s environmental-economic accounts show the interactions between the environment and the economy to provide a clearer understanding of environmental-economic pressures, dependencies, trade-offs, and impacts. It is done within the United Nations’ System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework, which specifies how environmental data can be integrated coherently with economic data from the System of National Accounts.

All accounts are expressed in monetary units and in current prices for the year to March.

Key facts
In the year to March 2023:

Total environmental taxes were $5.2 billion, most of which were transport (51 percent) and energy (45 percent) taxes. From 2022–2023, environmental taxes decreased 21 percent ($1.4 billion).

Marine economy contributed $4.6 billion to New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP). This was an increase of 7.9 percent compared with 2022. The contribution of the marine economy to GDP in 2023 was 1.2 percent.

The total asset value of renewable energy was $13.7 billion. Hydro generation made up 69 percent of total asset value, followed by geothermal (21 percent).

Central and local government expenditure on environmental protection (on a final consumption basis) increased 15 percent ($381 million) to total $2.9 billion. Local government contributed 68 percent ($1.9 billion) to this total, and central government 32 percent ($904 million).

Files:

Environmental-economic accounts: Data to 2023

CSV files for download
MIL OSI –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Submissions: Building activity down 4.4 percent in December 2024 quarter – Stats NZ media and information release: Value of building work put in place: December 2024 quarter
Source: Statistics New Zealand

Building activity down 4.4 percent in December 2024 quarter – 6 March 2025 – The seasonally adjusted volume of building work in New Zealand was $7.4 billion in the December 2024 quarter, down 4.4 percent compared with the September 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

“There has been a downward trend in building activity volume since the most recent peak in the September 2022 quarter,” economic indicators spokesperson Michael Heslop said.

Residential building work fell 4.9 percent to $4.5 billion and non-residential building work fell 3.1 percent to $2.8 billion (seasonally adjusted) in the final quarter of 2024.

“Residential building activity volume reached its lowest level in over four years, in seasonally adjusted terms,” Heslop said.

Files:

Building activity down 4.4 percent in December 2024 quarter

Value of building work put in place: December 2024 quarter

CSV files for download
MIL OSI –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI New Zealand: Building activity down 4.4 percent in December 2024 quarter – Stats NZ media and information release: Value of building work put in place: December 2024 quarter

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Building activity down 4.4 percent in December 2024 quarter – 6 March 2025 – The seasonally adjusted volume of building work in New Zealand was $7.4 billion in the December 2024 quarter, down 4.4 percent compared with the September 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

“There has been a downward trend in building activity volume since the most recent peak in the September 2022 quarter,” economic indicators spokesperson Michael Heslop said.

Residential building work fell 4.9 percent to $4.5 billion and non-residential building work fell 3.1 percent to $2.8 billion (seasonally adjusted) in the final quarter of 2024.

“Residential building activity volume reached its lowest level in over four years, in seasonally adjusted terms,” Heslop said.

Files:

MIL OSI New Zealand News –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI New Zealand: Stats NZ information release: Environmental-economic accounts: Data to 2023
Source: Statistics New Zealand

Environmental-economic accounts: Data to 2023 – 6 March 2025 – Environmental-economic accounts show how our environment contributes to our economy, the impacts of economic activity on our environment, and how we respond to environmental issues.

Stats NZ’s environmental-economic accounts show the interactions between the environment and the economy to provide a clearer understanding of environmental-economic pressures, dependencies, trade-offs, and impacts. It is done within the United Nations’ System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework, which specifies how environmental data can be integrated coherently with economic data from the System of National Accounts.

All accounts are expressed in monetary units and in current prices for the year to March.

Key facts
In the year to March 2023:
- Total environmental taxes were $5.2 billion, most of which were transport (51 percent) and energy (45 percent) taxes. From 2022–2023, environmental taxes decreased 21 percent ($1.4 billion).
- Marine economy contributed $4.6 billion to New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP). This was an increase of 7.9 percent compared with 2022. The contribution of the marine economy to GDP in 2023 was 1.2 percent.
- The total asset value of renewable energy was $13.7 billion. Hydro generation made up 69 percent of total asset value, followed by geothermal (21 percent).
- Central and local government expenditure on environmental protection (on a final consumption basis) increased 15 percent ($381 million) to total $2.9 billion. Local government contributed 68 percent ($1.9 billion) to this total, and central government 32 percent ($904 million).
Files:

MIL OSI New Zealand News –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI New Zealand: ‘Need not race’ approach to bowel cancer screening will save lives

Source: ACT Party

“The move to reduce the eligibility age for free bowel cancer screening to 58 is ‘need, not race’ in action, and will save lives,” says ACT Leader David Seymour.

“ACT campaigned against targeting services based on race, because this practice was unfair, inefficient, and led to perverse outcomes.

“Bowel cancer screening was a classic example. In 2022, Labour set a lower eligibility age for Māori/Pacific people accessing the National Bowel Screening Programme.

“However, bowel cancer does not discriminate on race. Māori and Pacific peoples have a similar risk of developing bowel cancer compared to other population groups at a given age.

“It was true that a higher proportion of bowel cancers occur in Māori and Pacific peoples at a younger age, but that is because the overall demographics of those groups are younger. It has always been age that determines bowel cancer risk, not race.

“Today, the Government has repurposed Labour’s funding to deliver an eligibility age of 58 for all population groups, down from the previous default of 60.

“This is ‘need, not race’ in action. ACT campaigned on it, we secured it in our coalition agreement, the Minister of Health pushed officials, and the result was (after having to go overseas for the advice) that we can have good things and deliver wider health benefits to all New Zealanders.

“It shows, when you use real science and real statistics you don’t have to be racist. The previous government got the science and statistics wrong, and practiced racism. We abhor racial discrimination and we’re proud to be part of seeing the back of it.”

MIL OSI New Zealand News –

March 6, 2025

MIL-OSI: Amplify Energy Announces Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results, Year-End 2024 Proved Reserves, Juniper Capital Acquisition Update and Standalone Full-Year 2025 Guidance

Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

HOUSTON, March 05, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Amplify Energy Corp. (NYSE: AMPY) (“Amplify,” the “Company,” “us,” or “our”) announced today its operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024, year-end 2024 proved reserves, Juniper Capital (“Juniper”) acquisition update and full-year 2025 standalone guidance for the Company.

Key Highlights

2025 strategic initiatives include:
- Completing the previously announced transformational combination with certain Juniper portfolio companies which own substantial oil-weighted producing assets and significant leasehold interests in the DJ and Powder River Basins (the “Transaction”) and integrating such assets into our operations
- Continuing the Beta development program with six completions planned for 2025 including the C-48 and the A-45 which were deferred from the 2024 program
- Expanding Magnify Energy Services, a wholly owned subsidiary of Amplify (“Magnify”), to enhance Amplify’s competitive advantage in operating our mature assets located in East Texas and Oklahoma
- Creating incremental value in East Texas by monetizing portions of our portfolio and/or participating in joint development opportunities focused within the Haynesville formation
During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Company:
- Achieved average total production of 18.5 MBoepd
- Generated net cash provided by operating activities of $12.5 million and a net loss of $7.4 million
- Delivered Adjusted EBITDA of $21.8 million and Adjusted Net Income of $5.1 million
- Generated $2.9 million of free cash flow
- Completed the sale of undeveloped Haynesville acreage in East Texas for $1.4 million
For full-year 2024, the Company:
- Achieved average total production of 19.5 MBoepd
- Generated net cash provided by operating activities of $51.3 million and net income of $12.9 million
- Delivered Adjusted EBITDA of $103.0 million and Adjusted Net Income of $35.8 million
- Generated $18.0 million of free cash flow
- Renegotiated prior surety bonds and reduced sinking fund payments by approximately $7.0 million per year
- Initiated development drilling program at Beta, with the completion of two wells, which outperformed type curves
- Generated $3.1 million of Adjusted EBITDA at Magnify
- Renegotiated the iodine contract in Oklahoma, increasing annual Adjusted EBITDA by $2.4 million
Amplify’s year-end 2024 total proved reserves, utilizing Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) pricing of $75.48/Bbl for oil and NGLs and $2.13/MMBtu for natural gas, totaled 93 MMBoe and had a PV-10 value of approximately $736 million
As of December 31, 2024, Amplify had $127.0 million outstanding under the revolving credit facility
- Net Debt to Last Twelve Months (“LTM”) Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2x¹


	(1)	Net debt as of December 31, 2024, consisting of $127 MM outstanding under its revolving credit facility with ~$0.0 MM of cash and cash equivalents, and LTM Adjusted EBITDA as of the fourth quarter of 2024.

Martyn Willsher, Amplify’s President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “In early 2024, we told stakeholders that 2024 had the potential to be a transformative year for the Company, and we believe that we delivered on that expectation throughout the year. The recently announced transaction with Juniper Capital expands our operations into the DJ and Powder River Basins, increases our scale, operating efficiency and margins, improves our inventory of attractive drilling locations, and provides us with a new core area for potential M&A activity. The transaction also resulted in a new long-term partnership with Juniper Capital, who have a long history of delivering substantial value to shareholders. At Beta, we safely and successfully initiated a drilling program, which has increased our confidence regarding the future inventory of the field and has enabled us to expand our development plans for this prolific asset in 2025 and beyond.”

Mr. Willsher continued, “While we have focused our attention and resources on these two significant initiatives, our team has also delivered value to stockholders by pursuing opportunities to reduce operating expenses and maximize the value of our existing asset base. For example, Magnify Energy Services, our wholly owned subsidiary that provides oilfield services to Amplify-operated wells, expanded meaningfully in scope, realizing a significant increase in revenue and efficiency and reducing operating costs in East Texas and Oklahoma. We also renegotiated several existing contracts, like our iodine extraction contract, to receive improved economics. Although smaller in scope, these efforts have demonstrated management’s commitment to identifying areas to improve our operations and deliver value to stockholders. On the value maximizing front, we were able to monetize a portion of our acreage with Haynesville rights for several million dollars, while retaining an interest to realize upside value.”

Mr. Willsher concluded, “We believe that our strategic and operational accomplishments in 2024 set the foundation for Amplify’s future and that in 2025 we will begin to capitalize on the growth potential of this significantly enhanced asset base. By delivering on our 2025 strategic initiatives, we believe we can create immediate and long-term value for Amplify’s stockholders.”

Juniper Capital Rocky Mountain Assets Update

On January 15, 2025, Amplify announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement with privately held Juniper to combine with certain Juniper portfolio companies owning assets and leasehold interests in the DJ and Powder River Basins. Such portfolio companies are oil-weighted and include approximately 287,000 net acres. We expect to close the acquisition in the second quarter of 2025. Amplify has provided more information on the portfolio companies and their assets and the value potential of the Transaction in its latest investor presentation, available on its investor relations website.

On March 4, 2025, a definitive proxy statement was filed providing additional details on the Transaction. A special meeting of stockholders, to be held virtually, has been scheduled for April 14, 2025, at 9:00 am Central Time, where stockholders of record as of March 3, 2025 can vote to approve the issuance of common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Common Stock”) (as described in more detail in the definitive proxy statement) in connection with the Transaction. In order to virtually attend, stockholders must register in advance at www.cesonlineservices.com/ampysm_vm prior to April 13, 2025 at 9:00 a.m. Central Time. More information can be found in the definitive proxy statement on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the Company’s website, www.amplifyenergy.com, under the Investor Relations section. Upon approval from our stockholders of the issuance of Common Stock and the resulting closing of the Transaction, Amplify and Juniper are expected to own approximately 61% and 39%, respectively, of the combined company’s outstanding equity.

In anticipation of closing, Amplify is currently working with Juniper and its portfolio companies on integrating the Juniper assets into the Amplify organization. Furthermore, the Company expects to refinance a substantial portion of its outstanding debt and approximately $133 million in principal amount of the portfolio companies’ outstanding debt prior to closing the Transaction. Amplify intends to update the market with developments of the Transaction as they progress.

East Texas Haynesville Monetization Update

Starting in 2024, several operators expressed increased interest in buying or partnering with Amplify on our East Texas Haynesville interests. In December 2024, Amplify monetized ninety percent (90%) of its interests in certain units with Haynesville rights in Panola and Shelby Counties, while retaining a ten percent (10%) working interest and the ability to participate in any well drilled within the boundary of such units. Upon closing, such transaction generated approximately $1.4 million in proceeds.

In January 2025, Amplify completed a second transaction with a separate counterparty. Amplify sold ninety percent (90%) of its interest in certain units with Haynesville rights in Harrison County, Texas, in addition to 11 gross operated wells. This transaction also established an Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) with the counterparty covering 10,000 gross acres. Amplify retained a ten percent (10%) working interest in the units it divested and purchased a ten percent (10%) working interest in the counterparty’s acreage. Amplify generated net proceeds of $6.2 million from these transactions and estimates the AMI has more than 30 potential gross drilling locations.

2024 Year-End Proved Reserve Update

The Company’s estimated proved reserves at SEC pricing for year-end 2024 totaled 93.0 MMBoe, which consisted of 82.2 MMBoe of proved developed reserves and 10.8 MMBoe of proved undeveloped reserves. Proved developed reserves were lower year-over-year, primarily due to lower SEC pricing for oil and natural gas, which fell from $78.22 to $75.48 for oil and from $2.64 to $2.13 for natural gas, and the impact of 2024 production roll-off. Total proved reserves were comprised of 44% oil, 19% NGLs, and 37% natural gas.

At year-end 2024, Amplify’s total proved reserves and proved developed reserves had PV-10 values of approximately $736 million and $507 million, respectively, using SEC pricing. Proved developed reserve value at Bairoil was lower than 2023 due to a combination of SEC pricing, production performance and higher operating cost assumptions due to significant increases in regulated electricity rates. Proved undeveloped reserves have increased materially as a result of the successful 2024 Beta development program, with the Company adding 23 additional locations and approximately $200 million in PV-10 value. The initial production rates for the two Beta wells brought on-line in 2024 exceeded the type-curves included in our year-end reserve report, and Amplify will consider increasing the type curve assumptions for Beta development wells after evaluating results from the 2025 development program. Detail on the Company’s reserves by asset is provided in the table below. Additionally, Amplify has provided more information on its Beta development program and the substantial value potential of the field in its latest investor presentation, available on its investor relations website.

	Estimated Net Reserves¹
Region	MMBoe	% Oil and NGL	Proved Developed PV-10	Proved Undeveloped PV-10	Total Proved PV-10
			(in millions)

Beta	19.1	100%	$144	$214	$358
Oklahoma	27.0	46%	138	–	138
Bairoil	16.4	100%	118	–	118
East Texas/ North Louisiana	28.0	30%	75	4	79
Eagle Ford (Non-op)	2.5	90%	32	11	43

Total	93.0	63%	$507	$229	$736

(1)	Amplify’s year-end 2024 total proved reserves, utilizing SEC pricing of $75.48/Bbl for oil and NGLs and $2.13/MMBtu for natural gas.

Amplify’s reserves estimates were prepared by its third-party independent reserve consultant, Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, Inc.

Key Financial Results

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Company reported a net loss of approximately $7.4 million. The net loss was primarily attributable to a non-cash unrealized loss on commodity derivatives during the period. Excluding the impact of the non-cash unrealized loss on commodity derivatives in addition to other one-time impacts, Amplify generated Adjusted Net Income of $5.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA was $21.8 million, a decrease of approximately $3.7 million from $25.5 million in the prior quarter. The decrease was primarily due to lower realized oil prices (net of hedges) in the fourth quarter compared to the prior quarter.

Free cash flow was $2.9 million for the fourth quarter, a decrease of $0.7 million compared to the prior quarter. Amplify has now generated positive free cash flow in 18 of the last 19 fiscal quarters.

	Fourth Quarter			Third Quarter
$ in millions	2024				2024
Net income (loss)		($7.4	)		$22.7
Net cash provided by operating activities		$12.5			$15.7
Average daily production (MBoe/d)		18.5			19.0
Total revenues excluding hedges		$69.0			$69.9
Adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP financial measure)		$21.8			$25.5
Adjusted net income (loss), (a non-GAAP financial measure)		$5.1			$9.8
Total capital		$15.3			$18.2
Free Cash Flow (a non-GAAP financial measure)		$2.9			$3.6

Revolving Credit Facility

As of December 31, 2024, Amplify had $127.0 million outstanding under its revolving credit facility, and net debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA was 1.2x (net debt as of December 31, 2024 and 4Q24 LTM Adjusted EBITDA). Fourth quarter net debt increased from the prior quarter due to expected changes in working capital and increased development activity, primarily at Beta.

Corporate Production and Pricing

During the fourth quarter of 2024, average daily production was approximately 18.5 Mboepd, a decrease of 0.5 Mboepd from the prior quarter. The decrease in production was driven by gas volumes, which were impacted by gas plant realizations in East Texas. Our oil volumes, although slightly higher compared to the prior quarter, were impacted by platform shutdowns following the completion of the emission reduction and electrification facility projects and several unexpected well failures and subsequent interventions at Beta. With the successful completion of the electrification and emissions reduction project in the fourth quarter 2024 and the intervention projects completed by end of January 2025, we are projecting Beta production to be significantly higher than the fourth quarter, before the impact of the 2025 drilling program. As of March 2, 2025, current 7-day average production rates at Beta were 4,834 gross Bopd (3,635 net Bopd), representing an approximate 9% increase from fourth quarter 2024 volumes, with minimal contribution from the recently completed C48 well, which we continue to draw down since completing in mid-February.

The Company’s product mix for the quarter was 45% crude oil, 17% NGLs, and 38% natural gas.

	Three Months			Three Months
	Ended			Ended
	December 31, 2024			September 30, 2024

Production volumes – MBOE:
Bairoil		293			294
Beta		308			304
Oklahoma		436			454
East Texas / North Louisiana		609			638
Eagle Ford (Non-op)		60			62
Total – MBoe		1,706			1,752
Total – MBoe/d		18.5			19.0
% – Liquids		62	%		60	%

Total oil, natural gas and NGL revenues for the fourth quarter of 2024 were approximately $67.2 million, before the impact of derivatives. The Company realized a net gain on commodity derivatives of $4.1 million during the fourth quarter. Oil, natural gas and NGL revenues, net of realized hedges, decreased $3.3 million for the fourth quarter compared to the prior quarter.

The following table sets forth information regarding average realized sales prices for the periods indicated:

	Crude Oil ($/Bbl)					NGLs ($/Bbl)						Natural Gas ($/Mcf)

	Three Months Ended December 31, 2024		Three Months Ended September 30, 2024			Three Months Ended December 31, 2024			Three Months Ended September 30, 2024			Three Months Ended December 31, 2024			Three Months Ended September 30, 2024

Average sales price exclusive of realized derivatives and certain deductions from revenue	$	66.82	$	71.74		$	23.46		$	21.63		$	2.52		$	1.84
Realized derivatives		1.43		(0.24	)		–			–			0.76			1.38

Average sales price with realized derivatives exclusive of certain deductions from revenue	$	68.25	$	71.50		$	23.46		$	21.63		$	3.28		$	3.22
Certain deductions from revenue		–		–			(1.37	)		(1.33	)		(0.01	)		0.00

Average sales price inclusive of realized derivatives and certain deductions from revenue	$	68.25	$	71.50		$	22.09		$	20.30		$	3.27		$	3.22

Costs and Expenses

Lease operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2024 were approximately $35.1 million, or $20.57 per Boe, a $1.8 million increase compared to the prior quarter. Due to increased well failures in the fourth quarter, Beta lease operating costs were higher compared to the prior quarter. Lease operating expenses do not reflect $0.9 million of income generated by Magnify in the fourth quarter.

Severance and ad valorem taxes in the fourth quarter were approximately $5.4 million, a decrease of $0.6 million compared to $6.0 million in the prior quarter, and in line with expectations. Severance and ad valorem taxes as a percentage of revenue were approximately 8.0% in the fourth quarter.

Amplify incurred $4.5 million, or $2.62 per Boe, of gathering, processing and transportation expenses in the fourth quarter, compared to $4.3 million, or $2.45 per Boe, in the prior quarter.

Cash G&A expenses in the fourth quarter were $6.3 million, an increase of $0.1 million compared to the prior quarter and in-line with expectations.

Depreciation, depletion and amortization expense in the fourth quarter totaled $8.4 million, or $4.93 per Boe, compared to $8.1 million, or $4.62 per Boe, in the prior quarter.

Net interest expense was $3.7 million in the fourth quarter, a decrease of $0.1 million compared to $3.8 million in the prior quarter.

Amplify recorded a current income tax benefit of $2.1 million in the fourth quarter.

Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Capital Investments

Cash capital investment during the fourth quarter of 2024 was approximately $15.3 million. During the fourth quarter, the Company’s capital allocation was approximately 65% for Beta development drilling and facility projects, with the remainder distributed across the Company’s other assets.

The following table details Amplify’s capital invested during the fourth quarter of 2024:

	Fourth Quarter		Full-Year
	2024 Capital		2024 Capital
	($ MM)		($ MM)
Bairoil	$	0.2	$	2.9
Beta	$	10.0	$	53.7
Oklahoma	$	0.1	$	3.2
East Texas / North Louisiana	$	2.8	$	5.6
Eagle Ford (Non-op)	$	2.1	$	4.1
Magnify Energy Services	$	0.1	$	1.1
Total Capital Invested	$	15.3	$	70.6

2025 Operations & Development Plan

The following table details Amplify’s 2025 projected capital investments of $70 – $80 million:

Capital Investment by Type (% of Total):
Beta Development	41	%
Beta Facility	16	%
Workovers & Other Facilities	25	%
Non-op Development	18	%
Total Capital Investments:	100	%

Amplify’s 2025 operations and development plan is designed to continue unlocking the underlying value of the Company’s assets. To achieve this goal, we intend to 1) continue our development program at Beta, 2) execute on low-cost, high-return workover projects, and 3) reduce operating costs by increasing activity at Magnify.

At Beta, Amplify intends to complete six wells in 2025. The C48 well, the first of the six wells to be completed in 2025, was drilled in the fourth quarter of 2024 and completed in mid-February. Similar to the A50 and C59 wells drilled in 2024, the completion of the C48 well was initially designed to target the D-sand. However, drilling conditions encountered in the D-sand and the quality of the C-Sand observed while drilling through the formation, led the team to alter the completion design and target the C-sand instead. The C48 will be the first test of the horizontal potential of the C-sand and we will share the results of the C48 well after obtaining sufficient initial production data.

In 2024 Amplify brought online two new wells at Beta, the A50 well (brought online in June) and the C59 well (brought online in October), both of which exceeded internal projections and increased Beta’s overall production approximately 15% in January 2025 compared to January of 2024. Similarly, the six Beta completions planned in 2025 are expected to significantly increase Amplify’s oil production year-over-year. Additional information regarding the Beta development plan can be found in the investor presentation on the Company’s investor relations website.

In addition to drilling and completing the six wells, Amplify intends to make continued investments in Beta’s facilities. In 2025, the Company expects to invest approximately $8 million to upgrade a 2-mile pipeline that ships all produced fluid from platform Eureka to platform Elly.

At Bairoil, we continue to focus on enhancing water-alternating-gas injection performance through targeted well recompletions and conversions, which helps offset the asset’s nominal production declines. Our plan also includes an investment at our CO₂ gas plant intended to reduce overall power usage and lease operating expenses in the second half of 2025.

Amplify’s operating strategy in Oklahoma remains focused on prioritizing a stable free cash flow profile by managing production through an active workover program, artificial lift enhancements, extending well run-times and continuing to reduce operating costs.

In East Texas, we are participating in the completion of four non-operated development projects, which we expect to be online by mid-year. The Company also continues to focus on prudent management of the field, such as optimizing field compression, artificial lift enhancement, and equipment insourcing, which is expected to improve the production profile and lower lease operating costs.

In late 2023, we formed Magnify to in-source specific oilfield services to improve service reliability and to reduce overall operating expenses for the Company. Since its inception, Magnify has generated $3.7 million of Adjusted EBITDA with a capital investment of only $1.7 million. In 2025, we expect to invest an additional $1.4 million of capital in Magnify and project 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 million (with an annualized run rate of $6 million by year-end). We are evaluating additional accretive services for Magnify to service Amplify operated assets.

In the Eagle Ford, we are participating in 14 gross (0.7 net) new development wells and two gross (0.4 net) recompletion projects. These non-operated wells, with highly accretive returns, are currently scheduled to be completed in the first half of 2025.

Full-Year 2025 Guidance

The following standalone guidance is subject to the cautionary statements and limitations described under the “Forward-Looking Statements” caption at the end of this press release. Amplify’s 2025 guidance is based on its current expectations regarding capital investment levels and flat commodity prices for crude oil of $71/Bbl (WTI) and natural gas of $3.75/MMBtu (Henry Hub), and on the assumption that market demand and prices for oil and natural gas will continue at levels that allow for economic production of these products. Additionally, the Company expects to invest approximately 90% of its capital in the first three quarters of the year primarily in connection with the Beta development program. Upon closing of the Transaction with Juniper, the Company will provide updated guidance to include the acquired assets.

A summary of the standalone guidance is presented below:

	FY 2025E

	Low		High

Net Average Daily Production
Oil (MBbls/d)	8.5	–	9.4
NGL (MBbls/d)	3.0	–	3.3
Natural Gas (MMcf/d)	45.0	–	51.0
Total (MBoe/d)	19.0	–	21.0

Commodity Price Differential / Realizations (Unhedged)
Oil Differential ($ / Bbl)	($3.25)	–	($4.25)
NGL Realized Price (% of WTI NYMEX)	27%	–	31%
Natural Gas Realized Price (% of Henry Hub)	85%	–	92%

Other Revenue
Magnify Energy Services ($ MM)	$4	–	$6
Other ($ MM)	$2	–	$3
Total ($ MM)	$6	–	$9

Gathering, Processing and Transportation Costs
Oil ($ / Bbl)	$0.65	–	$0.85
NGL ($ / Bbl)	$2.75	–	$4.00
Natural Gas ($ / Mcf)	$0.55	–	$0.75
Total ($ / Boe)	$2.25	–	$2.85

Average Costs
Lease Operating ($ / Boe)	$18.50	–	$20.50
Taxes (% of Revenue) ⁽¹⁾	6.0%	–	7.0%
Cash General and Administrative ($ / Boe) ⁽²⁾⁽³⁾	$3.40	–	$3.90

Adjusted EBITDA ($ MM) ⁽²⁾⁽³⁾	$100	–	$120
Cash Interest Expense ($ MM)	$12	–	$18
Capital Expenditures ($ MM)	$70	–	$80
Free Cash Flow ($ MM) ⁽²⁾⁽³⁾	$10	–	$30

⁽¹⁾ Includes production, ad valorem and franchise taxes
⁽²⁾ Refer to “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for Amplify’s definition and use of Cash G&A, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, non-GAAP measures (cash income taxes, which are not included in free cash flow, are expected to range between $0 – $2 million for the year)
⁽³⁾ Amplify believes that a quantitative reconciliation of such forward-looking information to the most comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP cannot be made available without unreasonable efforts. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures would require Amplify to predict the timing and likelihood of future transactions and other items that are difficult to accurately predict. Neither of these forward-looking measures, nor their probable significance, can be quantified with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Accordingly, a reconciliation of the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP measures is not provided.

Hedging

Recently, the Company took advantage of volatility in the futures market to add to its hedge position, further protecting future cash flows. Amplify executed crude oil swaps covering the second half of 2025 through year-end 2026 at a weighted average price of $68.10. The Company also added natural gas collars for a portion of 2027 with a weighted average floor of $3.63 per MMBtu and a weighted average ceiling of $3.98 per MMBtu.

The following table reflects the hedged volumes under Amplify’s commodity derivative contracts and the average fixed floor and ceiling prices at which production is hedged for January 2025 through December 2027, as of March 4, 2025:

		2025		2026		2027

Natural Gas Swaps:
Average Monthly Volume (MMBtu)		585,000		500,000		87,500
Weighted Average Fixed Price ($)	$	3.75	$	3.79	$	3.76

Natural Gas Collars:
Two-way collars
Average Monthly Volume (MMBtu)		500,000		500,000		87,500
Weighted Average Ceiling Price ($)	$	3.90	$	4.06	$	4.20
Weighted Average Floor Price ($)	$	3.50	$	3.55	$	3.50

Oil Swaps:
Average Monthly Volume (Bbls)		128,583		72,750
Weighted Average Fixed Price ($)	$	70.85	$	69.19

Oil Collars:
Two-way collars
Average Monthly Volume (Bbls)		59,500
Weighted Average Ceiling Price ($)	$	80.20
Weighted Average Floor Price ($)	$	70.00

Amplify has posted an updated investor presentation containing additional hedging information on its website, www.amplifyenergy.com, under the Investor Relations section.

Annual Report on Form 10-K

Amplify’s financial statements and related footnotes will be available in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, which Amplify expects to file with the SEC on March 5, 2025.

About Amplify Energy

Amplify Energy Corp. is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, exploitation and production of oil and natural gas properties. Amplify’s operations are focused in Oklahoma, the Rockies (Bairoil), federal waters offshore Southern California (Beta), East Texas / North Louisiana, and the Eagle Ford (Non-op). For more information, visit www.amplifyenergy.com.

Conference Call

Amplify will host an investor teleconference tomorrow at 10 a.m. Central Time to discuss these operating and financial results. Interested parties may join the call by dialing (888) 999-5318 at least 15 minutes before the call begins and providing the Conference ID: AEC4Q24. A telephonic replay will be available for fourteen days following the call by dialing (800) 654-1563 and providing the Access Code: 71724906. A transcript and a recorded replay of the call will also be available on our website after the call.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included in this press release that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Terminology such as “may,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “expect,” “plan,” “project,” “intend,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” “pursue,” “target,” “outlook,” “continue,” the negative of such terms or other comparable terminology are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Company’s expectations of plans, goals, strategies (including measures to implement strategies), objectives and anticipated results with respect thereto. These statements address activities, events or developments that we expect or anticipate will or may occur in the future, including things such as projections of results of operations, plans for growth, goals, future capital expenditures, competitive strengths, references to future intentions and other such references. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause the Company’s actual results or financial condition to differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. These include risks and uncertainties relating to, among other things: the Company’s ability to successfully complete the proposed business combination between the Company and certain of Juniper’s portfolio companies, or the “Mergers”; the Company’s evaluation and implementation of strategic alternatives; risks related to the redetermination of the borrowing base under the Company’s revolving credit facility; the Company’s ability to satisfy debt obligations; the Company’s need to make accretive acquisitions or substantial capital expenditures to maintain its declining asset base, including the existence of unanticipated liabilities or problems relating to acquired or divested business or properties; volatility in the prices for oil, natural gas and NGLs; the Company’s ability to access funds on acceptable terms, if at all, because of the terms and conditions governing the Company’s indebtedness, including financial covenants; general political and economic conditions, globally and in the jurisdictions in which we operate, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and the potential destabilizing effect such conflicts may pose for the global oil and natural gas markets; expectations regarding general economic conditions, including inflation; and the impact of local, state and federal governmental regulations, including those related to climate change and hydraulic fracturing, and the current administration’s potential reversal thereof. Please read the Company’s filings with the SEC, including “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, and if applicable, the Company’s Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K, which are available on the Company’s Investor Relations website at https://www.amplifyenergy.com/investor-relations/sec-filings/default.aspx or on the SEC’s website at http://www.sec.gov, for a discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those in such forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release. All forward-looking statements in this press release are qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Except as required by law, the Company undertakes no obligation and does not intend to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future results or otherwise.

No Offer or Solicitation

A portion of this press release relates to a proposed business combination transaction between the Company and certain Juniper portfolio companies. This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or a solicitation of any vote or approval, in any jurisdiction, pursuant to the proposed business combination transaction or otherwise, nor shall there be any sale, issuance, exchange or transfer of the securities referred to in this document in any jurisdiction in contravention of applicable law. No offer of securities shall be made except by means of a prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

Important Additional Information Regarding the Mergers Will Be Filed With the SEC

In connection with the proposed transaction, the Company has filed a definitive proxy statement. The definitive proxy statement will be sent to the stockholders of the Company. The Company may also file other documents with the SEC regarding the proposed transaction. INVESTORS AND SECURITY HOLDERS OF AMPLIFY ARE ADVISED TO CAREFULLY READ THE DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT MATERIALS FILED WITH THE SEC WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE BECAUSE THEY WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THE MERGERS, THE PARTIES TO THE MERGERS AND THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MERGERS. Investors and security holders may obtain a free copy of the definitive proxy statement and other relevant documents filed by Amplify with the SEC from the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Security holders and other interested parties will also be able to obtain, without charge, a copy of the definitive proxy statement and other relevant documents (when available) by (1) directing your written request to: 500 Dallas Street, Suite 1700, Houston, Texas or (2) contacting our Investor Relations department by telephone at (832) 219-9044 or (832) 219-9051. Copies of the documents filed by the Company with the SEC will be available free of charge on the Company’s website at http://www.amplifyenergy.com.

Participants in the Solicitation

Amplify and certain of its respective directors, executive officers and employees may be considered participants in the solicitation of proxies in connection with the proposed transaction. Information regarding the persons who may, under the rules of the SEC, be deemed participants in the solicitation of the stockholders of Amplify in connection with the proposed transaction, including a description of their respective direct or indirect interests, by security holdings or otherwise, is included in the definitive proxy statement filed with the SEC. Additional information regarding the Company’s directors and executive officers is also included in Amplify’s Notice of Annual Meeting of Stockholders and 2024 Proxy Statement, which was filed with the SEC on April 5, 2024. These documents are available free of charge as described above.

Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

This press release and accompanying schedules include the non-GAAP financial measures of Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted net income, free cash flow, net debt, PV-10 and cash G&A. The accompanying schedules provide a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. Amplify’s non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered as alternatives to GAAP measures such as net income, operating income, net cash flows provided by operating activities, standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows, or any other measure of financial performance calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. Amplify’s non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies because they may not calculate such measures in the same manner as Amplify does.

Adjusted EBITDA. Amplify defines Adjusted EBITDA as net income (loss) plus Interest expense; Income tax expense (benefit); DD&A; Impairment of goodwill and long-lived assets (including oil and natural gas properties); Accretion of AROs; Loss or (gain) on commodity derivative instruments; Cash settlements received or (paid) on expired commodity derivative instruments; Amortization of gain associated with terminated commodity derivatives; Losses or (gains) on sale of assets and other, net; Share-based compensation expenses; Exploration costs; Acquisition and divestiture related expenses; Reorganization items, net; Severance payments; and Other non-routine items that we deem appropriate. Adjusted EBITDA is commonly used as a supplemental financial measure by management and external users of Amplify’s financial statements, such as investors, research analysts and rating agencies, to assess: (1) its operating performance as compared to other companies in Amplify’s industry without regard to financing methods, capital structures or historical cost basis; (2) the ability of its assets to generate cash sufficient to pay interest and support Amplify’s indebtedness; and (3) the viability of projects and the overall rates of return on alternative investment opportunities. Since Adjusted EBITDA excludes some, but not all, items that affect net income or loss and because these measures may vary among other companies, the Adjusted EBITDA data presented in this press release may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. The GAAP measures most directly comparable to Adjusted EBITDA are net income and net cash provided by operating activities.

Adjusted Net Income. Amplify defines Adjusted Net Income as net income (loss) adjusted for loss (gain) on commodity derivative instruments, acquisition & divestiture related expenses, unusual and infrequent items, and the income tax expense or benefit of these adjustments using our federal statutory tax rate. Adjusted Net Income (Loss) excludes the impact of unusual and infrequent items affecting earnings that vary widely and unpredictably, including derivative gains and losses. This measure is not meant to disassociate these items from management’s performance but rather is intended to provide helpful information to investors interested in comparing our performance between periods. Adjusted net income (loss) is not considered to be an alternative to net income (loss) reported in accordance with GAAP.

Free cash flow. Amplify defines free cash flow as Adjusted EBITDA, less cash interest expense and capital expenditures. Free cash flow is an important non-GAAP financial measure for Amplify’s investors since it serves as an indicator of the Company’s success in providing a cash return on investment. The GAAP measures most directly comparable to free cash flow are net income and net cash provided by operating activities.

Net debt. Amplify defines net debt as the total principal amount drawn on the revolving credit facility less cash and cash equivalents. The Company uses net debt as a measure of financial position and believes this measure provides useful additional information to investors to evaluate the Company’s capital structure and financial leverage.

PV-10. PV-10 is a non-GAAP financial measure that represents the present value of estimated future cash inflows from proved oil and natural gas reserves that are calculated using the unweighted arithmetic average first-day-of-the-month prices for the prior 12 months, less future development and operating costs, discounted at 10% per annum to reflect the timing of future cash flows. The most directly comparable GAAP measure to PV-10 is standardized measure. PV-10 differs from standardized measure in its treatment of estimated future income taxes, which are excluded from PV-10. Amplify believes the presentation of PV-10 provides useful information because it is widely used by investors in evaluating oil and natural gas companies without regard to specific income tax characteristics of such entities. PV-10 is not intended to represent the current market value of our estimated proved reserves. PV-10 should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the standardized measure as defined under GAAP.

Cash G&A. Amplify defines cash G&A as general and administrative expense, less share-based compensation expense; acquisition and divestiture costs; bad debt expense; and severance payments. Cash G&A is an important non-GAAP financial measure for Amplify’s investors since it allows for analysis of G&A spend without regard to share-based compensation and other non-recurring expenses which can vary substantially from company to company. The GAAP measures most directly comparable to cash G&A is total G&A expenses.

Contacts

Jim Frew — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
(832) 219-9044
jim.frew@amplifyenergy.com

Michael Jordan — Director, Finance and Treasurer
(832) 219-9051
michael.jordan@amplifyenergy.com

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)

Amplify Energy Corp.
Selected Financial Data – Unaudited
Statements of Operations Data

	Three Months			Three Months
	Ended			Ended
(Amounts in $000s, except per share data)	December 31, 2024			September 30, 2024

Revenues:
Oil and natural gas sales	$	67,189		$	68,135
Other revenues		1,832			1,723
Total revenues		69,021			69,858

Costs and Expenses:
Lease operating expense		35,100			33,255
Pipeline incident loss		2,405			247
Gathering, processing and transportation		4,468			4,290
Exploration		10			–
Taxes other than income		5,356			5,997
Depreciation, depletion and amortization		8,418			8,102
General and administrative expense		9,486			8,251
Accretion of asset retirement obligations		2,156			2,125
Realized (gain) loss on commodity derivatives		(4,052	)		(6,375	)
Unrealized (gain) loss on commodity derivatives		13,357			(18,672	)
(Gain) loss on sale of properties		(1,367	)		–
Other, net		334			38
Total costs and expenses		75,671			37,258

Operating Income (loss)		(6,650	)		32,600

Other Income (Expense):
Interest expense, net		(3,684	)		(3,756	)
Other income (expense)		(113	)		(130	)
Total other income (expense)		(3,797	)		(3,886	)

Income (loss) before reorganization items, net and income taxes		(10,447	)		28,714

Income tax benefit (expense) – current		2,132			(412	)
Income tax benefit (expense) – deferred		886			(5,650	)

Net income (loss)	$	(7,429	)	$	22,652

Earnings per share:
Basic and diluted earnings (loss) per share	$	(0.19	)	$	0.54

Selected Financial Data – Unaudited
Operating Statistics

	Three Months		Three Months
	Ended		Ended
(Amounts in $000s, except per unit data)	December 31, 2024		September 30, 2024

Oil and natural gas revenue:
Oil Sales	$	50,817	$	54,353
NGL Sales		6,602		6,096
Natural Gas Sales		9,770		7,686
Total oil and natural gas sales – Unhedged	$	67,189	$	68,135

Production volumes:
Oil Sales – MBbls		760		758
NGL Sales – MBbls		299		301
Natural Gas Sales – MMcf		3,883		4,165
Total – MBoe		1,706		1,752
Total – MBoe/d		18.5		19.0

Average sales price (excluding commodity derivatives):
Oil – per Bbl	$	66.82	$	71.74
NGL – per Bbl	$	22.09	$	20.29
Natural gas – per Mcf	$	2.52	$	1.85
Total – per Boe	$	39.37	$	38.88

Average unit costs per Boe:
Lease operating expense	$	20.57	$	18.98
Gathering, processing and transportation	$	2.62	$	2.45
Taxes other than income	$	3.14	$	3.42
General and administrative expense	$	5.56	$	4.71
Realized gain/(loss) on commodity derivatives	$	2.38	$	3.64
Depletion, depreciation, and amortization	$	4.93	$	4.62

Selected Financial Data – Unaudited
Asset Operating Statistics

	Three Months			Three Months
	Ended			Ended
	December 31, 2024			September 30, 2024

Production volumes – MBOE:
Bairoil		293			294
Beta		308			304
Oklahoma		436			454
East Texas / North Louisiana		609			638
Eagle Ford (Non-op)		60			62
Total – MBoe		1,706			1,752
Total – MBoe/d		18.5			19.0
% – Liquids		62	%		60	%

Lease operating expense – $M:
Bairoil	$	11,800		$	13,164
Beta		12,113			9,520
Oklahoma		3,948			3,644
East Texas / North Louisiana		5,887			5,592
Eagle Ford (Non-op)		1,351			1,335
Total Lease operating expense:	$	35,099		$	33,255

Capital expenditures – $M:
Bairoil	$	190		$	1,224
Beta		10,001			12,047
Oklahoma		168			1,449
East Texas / North Louisiana		2,758			2,303
Eagle Ford (Non-op)		2,125			1,157
Magnify Energy Services		82			44
Total Capital expenditures:	$	15,324		$	18,224

Selected Financial Data – Unaudited
Balance Sheet Data

(Amounts in $000s)	December 31, 2024			September 30, 2024

Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents	$	–		$	–
Accounts Receivable		39,713			32,295
Other Current Assets		32,064			37,862
Total Current Assets	$	71,777		$	70,157

Net Oil and Gas Properties	$	386,218		$	378,871
Other Long-Term Assets		289,081			290,188
Total Assets	$	747,076		$	739,216

Liabilities
Accounts Payable	$	13,231		$	18,107
Accrued Liabilities		43,413			36,699
Other Current Liabilities		11,494			11,362
Total Current Liabilities	$	68,138		$	66,168

Long-Term Debt	$	127,000		$	120,000
Asset Retirement Obligation		129,700			127,556
Other Long-Term Liabilities		13,326			10,822
Total Liabilities	$	338,164		$	324,546

Shareholders’ Equity
Common Stock & APIC	$	440,380		$	438,709
Accumulated Earnings (Deficit)		(31,468	)		(24,039	)
Total Shareholders’ Equity	$	408,912		$	414,670

Selected Financial Data – Unaudited
Statements of Cash Flows Data

	Three Months			Three Months
	Ended			Ended
(Amounts in $000s)	December 31, 2024			September 30, 2024


Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities	$	12,455		$	15,737
Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities		(19,379	)		(18,078	)
Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities		6,924			1,839

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow

	Three Months			Three Months
	Ended			Ended
(Amounts in $000s)	December 31, 2024			September 30, 2024

Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Cash Provided from Operating Activities:
Net cash provided by operating activities	$	12,455		$	15,737
Changes in working capital		4,770			5,937
Interest expense, net		3,684			3,756
Cash settlements received on terminated commodity derivatives		–			(793	)
Amortization of gain associated with terminated commodity derivatives		159			–
Amortization and write-off of deferred financing fees		(315	)		(310	)
Exploration costs		10			–
Acquisition and divestiture related costs		1,424			186
Plugging and abandonment cost		754			372
Current income tax expense (benefit)		(2,132	)		412
Pipeline incident loss		2,405			247
(Gain) loss on sale of properties		(1,367	)		–
Adjusted EBITDA:	$	21,847		$	25,544

Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to Net Cash Provided from Operating Activities:
Adjusted EBITDA:	$	21,847		$	25,544
Less: Cash interest expense		3,598			3,721
Less: Capital expenditures		15,324			18,224
Free Cash Flow:	$	2,925		$	3,599

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow


	Twelve Months			Twelve Months
	Ended			Ended
(Amounts in $000s, except per share data)	December 31, 2024			December 31, 2023

Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA¹to Net Cash Provided from Operating Activities:
Net cash provided by operating activities	$	51,293		$	141,590
Changes in working capital		32,272			(8,517	)
Interest expense, net		14,599			17,719
Cash settlements received on terminated commodity derivatives		(793	)		(658	)
Amortization of gain associated with terminated commodity derivatives		159			658
Amortization and write-off of deferred financing fees		(1,233	)		(1,980	)
Exploration costs		61			57
Acquisition and divestiture related costs		1,633			219
Plugging and abandonment cost		1,640			2,239
Current income tax expense (benefit)		232			4,817
Pipeline incident loss		3,859			19,981
(Gain) loss on sale of properties		(1,367	)		–
LOPI – timing differences		–			(4,636	)
Litigation settlement		–			(84,875	)
Other		686			1,418
Adjusted EBITDA:	$	103,041		$	88,032

Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to Net Cash Provided from Operating Activities:
Adjusted EBITDA¹:	$	103,041		$	88,032
Less: Cash interest expense		14,438			16,263
Less: Capital expenditures		70,644			33,744
Free Cash Flow:	$	17,959		$	38,025

	(1)	Adjusted EBITDA includes a revenue suspense release of $8.4 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024. See “Revenue Payables in Suspense” table for additional information.

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Adjusted EBITDA¹ and Free Cash Flow

	Three Months			Three Months
	Ended			Ended
(Amounts in $000s)	December 31, 2024			September 30, 2024

Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income (Loss):
Net income (loss)	$	(7,429	)	$	22,652
Interest expense, net		3,684			3,756
Income tax expense (benefit) – current		(2,132	)		412
Income tax expense (benefit) – deferred		(886	)		5,650
Depreciation, depletion and amortization		8,418			8,102
Accretion of asset retirement obligations		2,156			2,125
(Gains) losses on commodity derivatives		9,305			(25,047	)
Cash settlements received (paid) on expired commodity derivative instruments		4,052			5,582
Amortization of gain associated with terminated commodity derivatives		159			–
Acquisition and divestiture related costs		1,424			186
Share-based compensation expense		1,686			1,815
(Gain) loss on sale of properties		(1,367	)		–
Exploration costs		10			–
Loss on settlement of AROs		334			38
Bad debt expense		28			26
Pipeline incident loss		2,405			247
Adjusted EBITDA¹:	$	21,847		$	25,544

Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to Net Income (Loss):
Adjusted EBITDA:	$	21,847		$	25,544
Less: Cash interest expense		3,598			3,721
Less: Capital expenditures		15,324			18,224
Free Cash Flow:	$	2,925		$	3,599

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow


	Twelve Months			Twelve Months
	Ended			Ended
(Amounts in $000s, except per share data)	December 31, 2024			December 31, 2023


Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA¹to Net Income (Loss):
Net income (loss)	$	12,946		$	392,750
Interest expense, net		14,599			17,719
Income tax expense (benefit) – current		232			4,817
Income tax expense (benefit) – deferred		2,196			(253,796	)
Depreciation, depletion and amortization		32,586			28,004
Accretion of asset retirement obligations		8,438			7,951
(Gains) losses on commodity derivatives		2,047			(40,343	)
Cash settlements received (paid) on expired commodity derivative instruments		17,617			(8,273	)
Amortization of gain associated with terminated commodity derivatives		159			658
Acquisition and divestiture related costs		1,633			219
Share-based compensation expense		6,799			5,280
(Gain) loss on sale of properties		(1,367	)		–
Exploration costs		61			57
Loss on settlement of AROs		470			1,003
Bad debt expense		80			98
Pipeline incident loss		3,859			19,981
LOPI – timing differences		–			(4,636	)
Litigation settlement		–			(84,875	)
Other		686			1,418
Adjusted EBITDA:	$	103,041		$	88,032

Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to Net Income (Loss):
Adjusted EBITDA¹:	$	103,041		$	88,032
Less: Cash interest expense		14,438			16,263
Less: Capital expenditures		70,644			33,744
Free Cash Flow:	$	17,959		$	38,025

	(1)	Adjusted EBITDA includes a revenue suspense release of $8.4 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024. See “Revenue Payables in Suspense” table for additional information.

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted Net Income (Loss)

	Three Months			Three Months
	Ended			Ended
(Amounts in $000s, except per share data)	December 31, 2024			September 30, 2024

Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Income (Loss):
Net income (loss)	$	(7,429	)	$	22,652
Unrealized (gain) loss on commodity derivatives		13,357			(18,672	)
Acquisition and divestiture related costs		1,424			186
Non-recurring costs:
Income tax expense (benefit) – deferred		(886	)		5,650
Gain on sale of properties		(1,367	)		–
Litigation settlement		–			–
Tax effect of adjustments		(12	)		(39	)
Adjusted net income (loss)	$	5,087		$	9,777

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Net Income (Loss) to Adjusted Net Income (Loss)

	Twelve Months			Twelve Months
	Ended			Ended
(Amounts in $000s, except per share data)	December 31, 2024			December 31, 2023

Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Income (Loss):
Net income (loss)	$	12,946		$	392,750
Unrealized (gain) loss on commodity derivatives		20,457			(47,958	)
Acquisition and divestiture related costs		1,633			219
Non-recurring costs:
Income tax expense (benefit) – deferred¹		2,196			(253,796	)
Gain on sale of properties		(1,367	)		–
Litigation settlement²		–			(84,875	)
Tax effect of adjustments³		(56	)		17,778
Adjusted net income (loss)	$	35,809		$	24,118

	(1)	In 2023, we achieved three years of cumulative book income which resulted in the release of our valuation allowance of $284.9 million.
	(2)	In 2023, non-recurring costs included a litigation settlement with the shipping companies and the containerships whose anchors struck the Company’s pipeline.
	(3)	The federal statutory rates were utilized for all periods presented.

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Cash General and Administrative Expenses

	Three Months		Three Months
	Ended		Ended
(Amounts in $000s)	December 31, 2024		September 30, 2024

General and administrative expense	$	9,486	$	8,251
Less: Share-based compensation expense		1,686		1,815
Less: Acquisition and divestiture costs		1,424		186
Less: Bad debt expense		28		26
Less: Severance payments		—		—
Total Cash General and Administrative Expense	$	6,348	$	6,224

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Cash General and Administrative Expenses

	Twelve Months		Twelve Months
	Ended		Ended
(Amounts in $000s)	December 31, 2024		December 31, 2023

General and administrative expense	$	35,895	$	32,984
Less: Share-based compensation expense		6,799		5,280
Less: Acquisition and divestiture costs		1,633		219
Less: Bad debt expense		80		98
Less: Severance payments		344		965
Total Cash General and Administrative Expense	$	27,039	$	26,422

Selected Operating and Financial Data (Tables)
Reconciliation of Unaudited GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Revenue Payables in Suspense

	Three Months		Twelve Months
	Ended		Ended
(Amounts in $000s)	December 31, 2024		December 31, 2024


Oil and natural gas sales	$	–	$	4,023
Other revenues		–		4,829
Severance tax and other deducts		–		(433	)
Total net revenue	$	–	$	8,419

Production volumes:
Oil (MBbls)		–		33
NGLs (MBbls)		–		31
Natural gas (MMcf)		–		441
Total (Mboe)		–		138
Total (Mboe/d)		–		0.38

	As of	As of
	December 31,	December 31,
	2024	2023
Standardized measure of future net cash flows, discounted at 10% ($ M)	$608,239	$626,131
Add: PV of future income tax, discounted at 10% ($ M)	$127,526	$130,882
PV-10 ($ M)	$735,765	$757,013

The MIL Network –

March 6, 2025

MIL-OSI USA: NEWS RELEASE: DBEDT REDUCES HAWAI‘I ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE TO 1.7 PERCENT FOR 2025
Source: US State of Hawaii

NEWS RELEASE: DBEDT REDUCES HAWAI‘I ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE TO 1.7 PERCENT FOR 2025

Posted on Mar 5, 2025 in Latest Department News, Newsroom

STATE OF HAWAIʻI

KA MOKU ʻĀINA O HAWAIʻI

DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TOURISM

KA ʻOIHANA HOʻOMOHALA PĀʻOIHANA, ʻIMI WAIWAI A HOʻOMĀKAʻIKAʻI

RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION

JOSH GREEN, M.D.
GOVERNOR

KE KIAʻĀINA

JAMES KUNANE TOKIOKA

DIRECTOR

KA LUNA HOʻOKELE
1. EUGENE TIAN
CHIEF STATE ECONOMIST

DBEDT REDUCES HAWAI‘I ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE TO 1.7 PERCENT FOR 2025

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

March 5, 2025

The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) released its first quarter 2025 Statistical and Economic Report today. In the report, DBEDT adjusted its economic growth projections for 2025 to 1.7 percent, lower than the 2.0 percent projected in the previous quarter. The downward adjustment was mainly due to the expected slowdown in tourism growth, higher projected consumer inflation and increasing policy uncertainty at the national and international levels. Economic growth is expected to reach 2.0 percent in 2026 and to continue steady growth to 1.8 percent in 2028. The labor market is expected to remain stable, with low unemployment.

The resilience of Hawaiʻi’s economic growth in the next few years will rely on the strong performance of construction, real estate, health care, professional services, and the continued recovery of tourism.

Economic Recovery Status

As measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), Hawai‘i’s economy rebounded to exceed pre-pandemic (first three quarters of 2019) levels by 1.5 percent during the first three quarters of 2024. Hawai‘i’s overall economy was fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2023. By comparison, the U.S. economy has been fully recovered since the first quarter of 2021. Hawaiʻi was the second-slowest state in terms of economic recovery from the 2019 COVID recession. The U.S. economy was 12.6 percent higher than the 2019 level for the same indicator during the same period.

While tourism-related sectors (Accommodation, Transportation, Retail Trade, Recreation, and Food Services) have only recovered to 94.5 percent of pre-pandemic levels as of the third quarter of 2024, non-tourism sectors have shown firm growth. Compared to real GDP in the last quarter of 2019, the Information sector has grown by 35.1 percent; the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector by 25.0 percent; the Agricultural sector by 14.9 percent, and the Health Care and Social Assistance sector by 12.9 percent. The Wholesale Trade, Utilities, Accommodation and Food Services, and Other Services sectors are still below real GDP levels for the first three quarters of 2019.

Compared to 2019, statewide non-agriculture annual average payroll jobs were still short by 20,900 jobs in 2024. However, Construction annual average payroll jobs were above 2019 levels by 4,000 jobs, Health Care and Social Assistance by 2,900, and Private Educational Services by 700. Job counts in all other sectors were still lower than the levels in 2019. Retail Trade lost the most jobs at 6,900, followed by Financial Activities at 3,200, and Accommodations at 3,000.

During 2024, total visitor arrivals recovered 93.3 percent from the levels of 2019. Visitors from the U.S. increased by 6.7 percent, while international visitor recovery was 64.9 percent. The recovery rate of Japanese visitors was 45.7 percent and for Canadian visitors, the recovery rate was 80.2 percent.

Visitor arrivals to the island of Maui during 2024 were 76.6 percent of the level in 2019. Arrivals to O‘ahu were at 94.5 percent and arrivals to Hawai‘i Island were at 98.0 percent of the same period 2019 levels. Visitor arrivals to Kaua‘i were flat between the two periods.

Construction Industry Continues Booming

Statistics in the construction industry were great in 2024 and will have positive impacts on activities in 2025 and beyond. DBEDT estimates that construction activity in 2025 will be stronger than previously expected for several reasons:
1. The value of all building permits approved in 2024 increased by 27.1 percent from 2023 and most of these projects will be under construction in 2025.
2. The number of residential housing units authorized in 2024 increased by 78.1 percent as compared with 2023, and it was the highest in the past 17 years.
3. Construction completed as measured by the state contracting tax base increased 20.3 percent during the first 10 months of 2024 from the same period in 2023. DBEDT estimated that total construction value in 2024 could be over $14 billion.
4. Based on preliminary estimates, construction industry payroll jobs increased 9.2 percent in 2024 as compared with 2023.
5. A significant number of government construction projects are either ongoing or in the pipeline to be started.
6. More than 1,000 hotel units are either under construction or will start construction, with plans to open in 2025 and 2026.
Home Sales and Prices Continue Increasing

After declining 26 percent in 2023, Hawai‘i home sales as recorded at the Bureau of Conveyances increased 15.1 percent during 2024. Sales of single-family homes increased 14.3 percent and sales of condominium homes increased 15.9 percent. The average sale price of single-family homes was $1,093,445 during 2024, representing an 8.1 percent increase compared to 2023. The average sale price for condominium homes was $797,674, representing an increase of 5.7 percent from the year before.

Tourism Industry Growth is Likely to Slow Down

According to the airline schedules, total air seats to the state will decrease by 1.1 percent during the first 10 months of 2025. The decrease is mainly due to the decrease in flights from international locations, especially from Japan. The number of air seats on international flights is expected to decrease by 5.5 percent during the first 10 months of 2025 as compared with the same period in 2024. Air seats will decrease 5.5 percent from Japan, decrease 5.1 percent from Canada, and decline 3.2 percent from the Other Asia market, but will increase 1.7 percent from the Oceania market (Australia and New Zealand).

The number of scheduled air seats from the continental U.S. is flat during the first 10 months of 2025, an increase of a mere of 0.1 percent. While air seats from the U.S. East will increase 2.7 percent, seats will decrease by 0.2 percent from the U.S. West market. Part of the decrease in the air seats from the U.S. West market is the result of flight consolidations between Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines after their merger.

Labor Market Remains Stable

In 2024, the unemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage point from the previous year’s 3.0 percent, to reach 2.9 percent. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hawai‘i was among the 17 U.S. states without statistically significant unemployment rate changes from December 2023 to December 2024 (seasonally adjusted). Hawai‘i’s unemployment rate was the 10^th lowest in the U.S. during 2024.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Hawai‘i’s non-agricultural wage and salary jobs averaged 645,800 jobs, an increase of 10,400 jobs or 1.6 percent from the same quarter of 2023. In 2024, average non-agricultural wage and salary jobs increased 0.9 percent or 5,500 jobs from the previous year. The job increase in the fourth quarter of 2024 was due to job increases in both the private sector and the government sector. In that quarter, the private sector added about 8,600 non-agricultural jobs compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The number of jobs increased the most in Construction, which added 3,400 jobs or 8.9%, followed by Health Care and Social Assistance, which added 2,100 jobs or 2.8 percent, Food Services and Drinking Places, which added 1,900 jobs or 2.9 percent, Professional and Business Services, which added 1,400 jobs or 2.0 percent, and Accommodations, which added 700 jobs or 1.8 percent in the quarter.

The average number of weekly initial unemployment claims was 1,090 during 2024, lower than the weekly average experienced in 2019 at 1,200. All counties have seen decreased and stable unemployment claims, but the average weekly unemployment claims for Maui County numbered 204 during 2024, 42 percent higher than the 2019 level of 144.

DBEDT expects that the labor market conditions will remain stable and that the unemployment rate will improve slightly in 2025.

Consumer Inflation Remains High

Honolulu consumer inflation, as measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U), was 4.4 percent in 2024, 1.4 percentage points higher than the state’s inflation rate in 2023. This measurement was 1.5 percentage points above the 2.9 percent U.S. inflation rate.

In 2024, Honolulu consumer inflation was mainly driven up by Housing which increased 7.1 percent compared to 2023, and Food and Beverages (3.8 percent). Housing normally accounts for 50 percent of Honolulu consumer inflation.

In January 2025, the Honolulu consumer inflation rate was at 4.1 percent, still higher than the U.S. consumer inflation at 3.0 percent. Honolulu consumer inflation in January 2025 was mainly in transportation (+6.8 percent), housing (+4.4 percent), and food and beverages (+4.4 percent).

National and International Economic Conditions

U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter a year ago, according to the latest estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in 2024 from the 2023 annual level.

Policy uncertainty with respect to the imposition of tariffs and potential trade wars have negatively impacted the U.S. and global outlook for growth and inflation.

According to the most recent (February 2025) economic projections by the top 50 economic forecasting organizations published in Blue Chip Economic Indicators, U.S. economic growth is expected to be 2.2 percent in 2025 and 2.0 percent in 2026.

In February 2025, compared to January 2025, the Blue Chip International Consensus Forecasts for economic growth have been revised downward for 2025 in Canada and for the European countries. It was revised upward (0.1 percentage point) for Japan. The projected Japanese exchange rate was maintained at around 148.1 yen per dollar in 2025.

The Federal Reserve kept its fed funds rate (FFR) target unchanged at its January 28-29 FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rates twice last year, reducing the Federal Funds rate by 75 basis points to a range of 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent. The market expectations of the future number and magnitude of cuts by the Federal Reserve have been reduced in recent surveys. Inflation expectations have also been revised upward.

Forecasting Results

In the newly released report, DBEDT predicts that the economic growth rate for Hawai‘i, as measured by the year-over-year percentage change in real GDP, to slow down to 1.7 percent in 2025, reflecting policy uncertainty at the national and international levels. Economic growth is expected to reach 2.0 percent in 2026 and will show steady growth to around 1.8 percent in 2028.

Visitor arrivals are projected to increase by 1.0 percent in 2025 and will grow at a stable pace of around 2 percent each year between 2026 and 2028. Full recovery in arrivals will not happen until 2028 when 10.4 million visitors will come to the state. Visitor spending is projected to be $21.3 billion in 2025 and is expected to increase to $23.7 billion by 2028.

Non-agriculture payroll jobs are expected to grow by 1.2 percent in 2025, with growth of 1.1 percent, 1.0 percent and 0.9 percent in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. A full recovery of non-agriculture payroll jobs is expected to occur in 2027, when the total will reach 658,800 jobs, surpassing the 2019 total of 658,600.

The state unemployment rate is expected to be 2.9 percent in 2025 and will improve to 2.7 percent in 2026, and 2.6 percent in 2027 and 2028. Personal income is expected to grow at 4.9 percent in 2025, 4.8 percent in 2026, 4.6 percent in 2027 and 4.5 percent in 2028.

As measured by the Honolulu Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, inflation is expected to be at 3.9 percent in 2025, which is higher than the projected U.S. consumer inflation rate of 2.7 percent for the same year. Hawai‘i consumer inflation is expected to decrease to 2.9 percent by 2028.

Hawai‘i’s population is expected to increase by 0.2 percent each year for 2025 and 2026 and at 0.3 percent each year for 2027 and 2028.

Statement of DBEDT Director James Kunane Tokioka

While the domestic and international economic outlook has become more uncertain, we expect Hawai‘i’s economy to demonstrate resiliency. In addition to firm performance in the construction industry, we will continue to see growth in other industries including professional services and healthcare. We expect that the tourism industry will continue to recover in the next few years, even if at a slower pace than previously anticipated.

With the income tax reform and the increase in the supply of affordable housing, we expect that living in our state will be more affordable and support our state’s workforce formation and retention.

The full report is available at dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/qser/.

# # #

Media Contacts:

Dr. Eugene Tian

Research and Economic Analysis Division

Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
Phone: 808-586-2470
Email: [email protected]

Laci Goshi

Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism

Cell: 808-518-5480

Email: [email protected]

MIL OSI USA News –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: expert reaction to observational study of severity of menopause symptoms and cognition and behavioural impairment later in life

Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

March 5, 2025

An observational study published in PLOS One looks at menopause symptom severity and late-life cognitive function and behavioural impairment.

Prof Aimee Spector, Professor of Clinical Psychology of Ageing, UCL, said:

“Some important limitations of this study include the risk of bias in the self-reporting of both menopausal symptoms and cognitive function. The average age of women in the study was 64 – with the oldest being 88 – and the average age of menopause is 49, therefore they are being asked to recall symptoms from a long time before. Further, ‘cognitive function’ was measured by their subjective rating of their own memory rather than the use of objective tests for memory change that could be assessed over time.

“Whilst they found an association; there is no evidence that the menopause symptoms led to the cognitive changes and there could be many possible reasons why people with more menopause symptoms may experience more cognitive changes, such as depression or physical health conditions. I don’t think that the study can tell us anything about menopause symptoms and the risk of dementia, as subjective cognitive complaints do not imply that the person has or will get dementia.”

Dr Sheona Scales, Director of Research at Alzheimer’s Research UK, said:

“This study adds to our understanding of how menopause may relate to brain health for women in later life. It suggests that women who experience more menopausal symptoms, report greater cognitive and behavioural changes as they age. However, this study does not show that these women are more likely to go on to develop dementia.

“Dementia is caused by diseases in the brain, and while menopause could play a role in our brain health, we need more research to understand if and how this influences dementia risk. Some symptoms of menopause, like ‘brain fog’ or forgetfulness, are similar to early dementia symptoms.

“Long-term studies will be key to determining whether menopause-related changes have lasting implications, and whether interventions like hormone replacement therapy could play a protective role.

“With women making up two-thirds of people in the UK living with dementia, it is crucial that we invest in research that explores why women are more at risk of developing the condition. We advise anyone concerned about menopause symptoms or changes in their memory, thinking and behaviour to speak to their doctor for further advice.”

Prof Tara Spires-Jones, Director of the Centre for Discovery Brain Sciences at the University of Edinburgh, Group Leader in the UK Dementia Research Institute, and President of the British Neuroscience Association said:

“This study by scientists at the University of Calgary looked at data from 896 people and compared menopausal symptom burden with cognitive and behavioural function. Authors observed that menopausal symptoms were associated with poorer cognitive function and worse behavioural symptoms in mid to late life. While this study is on a very important topic of why women are at higher risk of dementia than men, there are several important limitations to this work that limit its impact. This study relied on people self-reporting their symptoms and only looked at a single time point an average of 15 years after menopause onset. This type of study cannot determine whether the observed higher menopause symptom burden caused the changes in cognition and behaviour. Further research is needed to understand whether experiences in menopause are linked to dementia risk.”

Prof Robert Howard, Professor of Old Age Psychiatry, UCL Division of Psychiatry, UCL, said:

“Irresponsible reporting of the conclusions of this study could cause considerable anxiety in women who have experienced troubling symptoms during their own the menopause. Hopefully, a little unpacking of what the study actually showed will be reassuring. The results suggest that women who self-reported more severe symptoms associated with their menopause were more likely to subsequently self-report more subjective complaints about their memory, concentration and difficulties with thinking. There are much more likely (and obvious) explanations for this association than the suggestion that a difficult experience of menopause is a risk factor for dementia.”

Prof Eef Hogervorst, Professor of Psychology, Loughborough University, said:

“This is not the first paper to suggest that severe vasomotor symptoms are associated with increased risk for dementia, although this is a contentious area of research.

“Observational studies cannot indicate causality so we cannot say that more severe menopause symptoms will lead to later cognitive issues or dementia.

“One explanation for this association could be that women have worse sleep or different cardiovascular profiles, both of which could be associated with dementia risk. Women who are stressed can have worse flushes too, which is associated with poorer long-term outcomes for brain and heart.

“What we do know from research and treatment trials in particular is that healthy lifestyles including some types of exercise, reducing stress, prioritising sleep, healthy diets, not smoking and limiting alcohol are the best ways to reduce vasomotor frequency and severity, can independently improve both quality of life in perimenopausal women and also reduce risk for dementia.”

Dr Claire Lancaster, Lecturer in the Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Brighton & Sussex Medical School, said:

“This research suggests the number of different menopause symptoms experienced by females in mid-life predicts self-reported cognitive change and mild behavioural symptoms approximately 15-years later. The result is interesting given existing evidence linking vasomotor symptoms specifically to AD pathologies such as amyloid. The authors suggestion a decline in estrogen may affect both brain health directly, plus wider systems (e.g., inflammation, vascular function) which in turn have knock-on effects on brain health certainly warrants future research.

“When considering this result, however, it is important to note that menopause symptoms are being reported retrospectively by participants, and that participants report whether they experienced the symptom as a simplistic ‘yes’ or ‘no’, rather than the scale collecting information on severity and frequency of menopause symptoms. As such, results may not truly reflect women’s experiences of menopause, specifically their bodies ability to cope with a decline in estrogen. Cognition and behavioural impairment (e.g., apathy, social withdrawal) are also collected via self-report. In general, females in this sample report very little cognitive decline from their past self – as reflected by the mean and standard deviation of scores on the E-Cog II Scale, plus limited behavioural symptoms. For example, cognitively healthy older adults from the ADNI cohort report a mean score of 54 on the E-COG II*, which is far greater than the mean score of 11 reported here. As such, readers must ask whether the cognitive and behavioural indices reported here truly represent increased risk for dementia as suggested by the authors. This casts doubt on whether data presented here are adequate to claim number of symptoms predicts subsequent dementia risk – on the face of this study alone, I would say no.

“Whilst the statistics are robust, it is worth noting that moderating health and lifestyle factors weren’t controlled for. For example, physical activity is suggested to improve physiological symptoms of menopause plus is reported to be protective against neurodegenerative disease in later life. Alcohol consumption confers a negative association with menopause symptoms and dementia risk in contrast. This further blurs confusion.

“The million dollar question when considering sex differences in Alzheimer’s risk is whether hormone replacement therapy can reduce dementia risk. Data reported here suggests there is no real association with HRT use and subjective cognitive change. Research into the effects of HRT on late-life cognition is very inconsistent at present. I would argue this study collects insufficient data about HRT use (e.g., time of onset relative to menopause, duration of use), including the context for it’s use (spontaneous vs. medical menopause) to be able to really comment on this question. All this being said, the results add to a growing body of research suggesting mid-life endocrine changes are important for cognitive health in later years.”

*https://doi.org/10.1002/dad2.12274

‘Menopausal symptom burden as a predictor of mid- to late-life cognitive function and mild behavioral impairment symptoms: A CAN-PROTECT study’ by Jasper F. E. Crockford et al. was published in PLOS ONE at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 5^th March.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0301165

Declared interests

Prof Aimee Spector: I am leading a review group for the World Health Organisation – their role being to review the evidence of HRT on dementia risk, to inform the new WHO guidelines.

Prof Tara Spires-Jones: I have no conflicts with this study but have received payments for consulting, scientific talks, or collaborative research over the past 10 years from AbbVie, Sanofi, Merck, Scottish Brain Sciences, Jay Therapeutics, Cognition Therapeutics, Ono, and Eisai. I am also Charity trustee for the British Neuroscience Association and the Guarantors of Brain and serve as scientific advisor to several charities and non-profit institutions.

Prof Robert Howard: No conflicts of interest.

Prof Eef Hogervorst: I have worked for NICE and ESHRE in non paid positions advising as expert on menopause hormones and the brain. In 2025 I am invited to two European conferences to speak about this topic (ESG and ECNP) where travel and accommodation is reimbursed.

Dr Claire Lancaster: I am a committee member of the Alzheimer’s Research UK South Coast network (voluntary role).

For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.

MIL OSI United Kingdom –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: The US energy market has its troubles, though it may not be a ‘national emergency’

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Seth Blumsack, Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics and International Affairs, Penn State

This Montana refinery processes crude oil imported from Canada. AP Photo/Matthew Brown

President Donald Trump’s declaration of a “national energy emergency” on his first day in office – and which he reiterated during his address to Congress on March 4, 2025 – might have seemed to echo other national emergencies, like those presidents declared in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

But there has never before been a national energy emergency. During the energy crises of the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter declared local or regional energy emergencies in a handful of states. These actions suspended some environmental regulations, such as air-pollution limits for coal-fired power plants, for very short periods to make sure those states’ residents had enough electricity.

When a president declares a national emergency, he claims significant powers under the National Emergencies Act, which allow him to take steps to solve the emergency. In this situation, Trump might seek to override environmental regulations, order utility companies to buy power from particular power plants, or invoke the Defense Production Act to secure materials needed for power plant construction.

A natural gas well pad in Washington County, Pa., is one of many sites around the nation where fracking has boosted U.S. energy production.
Rebecca Droke/AFP via Getty Images

Six weeks into his presidency, Trump had not taken any action to address this emergency, though during his speech to Congress he said he wants to increase drilling and build a new natural gas pipeline in Alaska. And Trump’s discussion of energy policy has not directly referred to the consumer price hikes expected as a result of the 10% tariffs he imposed on Canadian oil, gas and electricity starting on March 4, 2025.

Critics of the president’s declaration have described it as a “giveaway” to the fossil fuel industry in the form of looser regulations and measures to make it easier to drill for oil on government-owned land. In fact, the executive order’s definition of “energy” excludes energy generated from wind and solar, as well as efforts to conserve energy – all of which were major parts of the Biden administration’s energy strategy.

As someone who has studied energy markets for decades, I have seen several events that might qualify as energy-related emergencies, such as meltdowns at nuclear power plants around the world, shortages of electricity and natural gas, and massive power blackouts.

But over the past 15 years, the United States has become a global energy superpower even without any emergency declarations. The advent of hydraulic fracturing unleashed a wave of oil and gas production, even as U.S. energy demand barely budged. In a time of such energy abundance, there is no clear emergency on the scale of the energy crises of the 1970s. But there are some causes for concern.

Big increases in domestic production

One goal Trump’s declaration sets out is to increase what the executive order calls the nation’s “energy security.” Usually that phrase refers to an ability to operate using energy produced within the U.S. rather than overseas – particularly from countries that have long-standing conflicts or disagreements with the United States.

Based on raw numbers, however, the U.S. is already quite energy secure. In 2023, the nation produced nearly 13 million barrels of oil per day, which is more than any country has ever produced in the history of the oil business. Since 2015, when a federal ban on oil exports was lifted, the U.S. has been increasing the amount of oil it exports every year. And for the past several years, the U.S. has been the world’s leading exporter of gasoline, sending 10% of its total annual production to other countries.

Since the start of the shale-fracking boom in the mid-2000s, U.S. production of natural gas has also been increasing. The country’s natural gas exports have also risen over the past 10 years, though they have been limited by the number of ports that can handle liquefied natural gas cargo.

Still a net importer of oil

The U.S. produces plenty of oil to meet its demands, but not the kinds of oil that American refineries are designed to process into useful fuels.

Therefore, despite the increases in domestic production, the U.S. is still a net importer of crude oil. In 2023, the U.S. imported almost twice as much oil as it exported.

And U.S. refineries’ output of gasoline and heating oil depends on imported oil. Most oil refineries in the U.S. are quite old and were engineered to process so-called “heavy” crude oil produced in countries such as Canada, which is historically the United States’ biggest source of imported oil.

Most of the recent increase in U.S. oil production comes from hydraulic fracturing of shale and is so-called “light” crude oil. Refining light crude would require new refineries or a major reengineering of existing refineries, with new equipment, expanded capacity or both.

Making those changes would be very expensive. So refinery owners are hesitant to make these kinds of investments because there is a risk that the investments won’t pay off. Because U.S. refineries produce so much gasoline and have limited capacity, the U.S. also continues to import some refined petroleum fuels such as jet fuel.

A liquefied natural gas tanker ship moves toward Cameron Pass near Cameron, La.
Washington Post via Getty Images

A fragile power grid

Concern over the nation’s aging electric power grid is another focus of Trump’s energy emergency declaration. Experts have been issuing warnings for years. A 2024 study on the national transmission grid commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy has concluded the U.S. needs to double the size of the grid in the next couple of decades.

For the first time in nearly half a century, the U.S. is facing the prospect of rapidly increasing electricity demand. The demand for power has always gone up and down a bit with population and the health of the economy, but this time is different. Growth in electricity demand is now driven by the construction of massive data centers and by electrification of cars and heating and cooling systems. The Department of Energy reports that data center electricity use in particular has tripled in the past 10 years and could easily double in the next few years. At that rate, data centers could account for over 10% of all electricity demand in the country before 2030.

The U.S. supply of power generation in many regions is not ready for this surge in demand. Many power plants – particularly the older ones and those that burn coal – have shut down in the past several years, driven by a combination of economic pressures and environmental regulations. Building new power plants in many parts of the U.S. has become bogged down in regulatory red tape, public opposition and economic uncertainty. The North American Electric Reliability Corp., which develops standards for grid reliability, has placed over half of U.S. states at some level of risk for not having enough power generation to meet anticipated future demand.

A study has found that the nation’s electricity grid is expected to need significant investment to handle rising demand.
Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Will declaring an emergency help?

Under Trump’s energy emergency declaration, the administration seems likely to take actions that will make it easier to drill for more oil and gas. And the federal government may also make it easier to build power plants that run on coal, natural gas and possibly nuclear fuel.

But expanded fracking, in and of itself, will probably not address any energy security issues in the U.S., unless there are major investments in refineries to handle the increased oil production. Reducing the barriers to building power plants addresses a much more pressing problem, but the country would still need to expand the transmission grid itself, which does not get as much attention in the president’s declaration.

Time will tell whether the energy emergency declaration will be used to solve real problems in the nation’s energy supplies, or whether it will be used to further bolster oil and gas producers that have already made the U.S. a global energy powerhouse.

Seth Blumsack receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, NASA, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Heising Simons Foundation.

– ref. The US energy market has its troubles, though it may not be a ‘national emergency’ – https://theconversation.com/the-us-energy-market-has-its-troubles-though-it-may-not-be-a-national-emergency-249336

MIL OSI – Global Reports –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Canada: Soutien continu aux services en français | Continued support for French-language services
[. La communauté francophone compte maintenant plus de 261 000 personnes et il est essentiel de préserver et de soutenir ces personnes qui font partie intégrante du tissu social de la province.

Il est essentiel d’améliorer les services en français et de préserver le patrimoine francophone en Alberta à mesure que la communauté francophone croît. S’il est adopté, le budget de 2025 investira plus de 4 millions de dollars à l’appui d’initiatives qui renforcent les ressources en français et élargissent l’accès aux expériences culturelles et éducatives en français.

« En investissant dans les services en français, nous renforçons le soutien à notre communauté francophone, et nous veillons à ce que toutes les Albertaines et tous les Albertains puissent se rapprocher de l’histoire et du patrimoine que nous partageons, et les célébrer. Nous nous assurons que les Albertains peuvent accéder à des services du gouvernement, des réseaux de ressources pour les familles aux services de recherche et d’archives, dans la langue de leur choix. »

Tanya Fir, ministre des Arts, de la Culture et de la Condition féminine

Grâce au soutien du gouvernement, les Archives provinciales de l’Alberta ont été en mesure d’agrandir leur collection en français, notamment des documents de familles clés et des archives de la communauté francophone. À ce jour, les Archives provinciales ont traduit près de 200 documents aux fins d’accès par le public, et embauché des employés bilingues pour appuyer la recherche sur l’histoire francophone en Alberta.

« Les Archives provinciales de l’Alberta sont les principaux détenteurs des documents des francophones dans la province. Grâce au financement du Plan d’action, notre archiviste et notre technicien en archivistique bilingues continuent de documenter la communauté francophone, et de rendre ces documents accessibles non seulement aux francophones en Alberta, mais au Canada et ailleurs dans le monde. Nous sommes fiers de notre travail, qui rend ces documents accessibles en ligne et sur place à quiconque souhaite se renseigner au sujet de la culture et de l’histoire des francophones, du français et de l’expérience francophone dans l’Ouest canadien. »

Heather Innes, directrice générale, Archives provinciales de l’Alberta

Les investissements prévus au budget de 2025 soutiendraient en outre la Société historique francophone de l’Alberta, qui joue un rôle crucial pour ce qui est de préserver et de partager l’histoire francophone de la province. Par le biais de ressources, de publications et d’outils éducatifs, la Société aide les Albertains francophones à découvrir leur patrimoine, à tisser des liens avec lui et à le transmettre aux générations futures.

« Préserver, transmettre et faire rayonner l’histoire des francophones en Alberta demande des ressources et un engagement constant. Investir dans les services en français permet non seulement de mieux documenter cette histoire, mais de la rendre plus accessible à tous. Assurer le rayonnement de notre histoire nous permet de mieux la placer dans le récit collectif de l’Alberta. Cela contribue à renforcer notre identité et la vitalité de notre communauté. »

Claudette D. Roy, C.M., présidente, Société historique francophone de l’Alberta

Les efforts continus sont en harmonie avec le plan d’action de la Politique en matière de francophonie de l’Alberta, qui décrit les mesures touchant divers secteurs, notamment l’appui aux organismes francophones, l’amélioration de la prestation des services culturels et l’offre de ressources sur la santé et la justice en français.

Le budget de 2025 est un plan tourné vers l’avenir qui vise à renforcer les services en français, en assurant un meilleur accès et davantage de possibilités à la population albertaine francophone afin qu’elle puisse s’épanouir et contribuer à la prospérité de la province.

En bref
- L’Alberta compte plus de 261 000 francophones et le français est la langue la plus couramment parlée après l’anglais dans la province (Statistique Canada, 2021).
- Statistique Canada prévoit que la croissance de la population francophone en Alberta sera la plus élevée au pays. On prévoit une hausse de 25 % à 50 % d’ici 2036.
Renseignements connexes
- Plan d’action 2024-2028 de la Politique en matière de francophonie
- Politique en matière de francophonie du gouvernement de l’Alberta
- Ressources en français des Archives provinciales de l’Alberta
Nouvelles connexes
- Une offre améliorée de services en français partout en Alberta | More French services in every corner of Alberta (16 décembre 2024)
Multimédia
- Regarder la conférence de presse (en anglais seulement)
Alberta’s government is continuing to invest in improving access to programs and services for French-speaking Albertans.

The French language has been a foundational part of Alberta’s culture and heritage, contributing significantly to the Albertan identity. As the province’s French-speaking community has grown to more than 261,000 people, it is vital to preserve and support this foundational part of Alberta’s societal fabric.

Enhancing French-language services and sustaining Alberta’s Francophone heritage are crucial as the province’s francophone community grows. If passed, Budget 2025 would invest more than $4 million to support initiatives that boost French resources and broaden access to cultural and educational experiences in French.

“By investing in French-language services, we are not only strengthening support for our francophone community but also ensuring that all Albertans can connect with and celebrate our shared history and heritage. We are ensuring Albertans can access government services, from family resource networks to research and archival services, in the language of their choice.”

Tanya Fir, Minister of Arts, Culture and Status of Women

Through government support, the Provincial Archives of Alberta has been able to expand its French holdings, including key family records and francophone community archives. To date, the provincial archives has translated almost 200 French records for public access and hired bilingual staff to support Albertans researching francophone history.

“The Provincial Archives of Alberta is the premier holder of records of the francophones in the province. Thanks to this Action Plan funding, our bilingual archivist and archival technician continue to document the French community, and to make these records available not just to Francophones here in Alberta, but in Canada and internationally. We are proud of the work we do to make these records accessible online and onsite at the Archives to anyone that wants to learn about francophone culture, history, French language and the francophone experience in the west.”

Heather Innes, executive director, Provincial Archives of Alberta

Investments through Budget 2025 would also support the Société historique francophone de l’Alberta, which plays a crucial role in preserving and sharing Alberta’s francophone history. Through resources, publications and educational tools, the society helps French-speaking Albertans learn, connect with and transmit their heritage to future generations.

“Preserving, transmitting, and promoting the history of francophones in Alberta requires resources and ongoing commitment. Investing in French-language services not only helps document this history more effectively but also makes it more accessible to everyone. Showcasing our history allows us to better position it within Alberta’s collective narrative, strengthening both our identity and the vitality of our community.”

Claudette D. Roy, C.M., president, Société historique francophone de l’Alberta

The ongoing efforts align with Alberta’s French Policy Action Plan, which outlines actions that span various sectors, including supporting francophone organizations, enhancing cultural service delivery and providing health and justice resources in French.

Budget 2025 is a forward-looking plan to strengthen French-language services, ensuring greater access and opportunities for French-speaking Albertans to thrive and contribute to the province’s prosperity.

Quick facts
- With more than 261,000 speakers, French is the most spoken language in Alberta after English (Statistics Canada, 2021).
- Statistics Canada projects Alberta to lead the country in the growth of the French-speaking population, with an increase between 25 and 50 per cent by 2036.
Related information
- Alberta’s French Policy 2024-28 Action Plan
- Alberta’s French Policy
- Provincial Archives of Alberta French Resources
Related news
- Une offre améliorée de services en français partout en Alberta | More French services in every corner of Alberta (Dec. 16, 2024)
Multimedia
- Watch the news conference
MIL OSI Canada News –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Africa: Nigeria reduces inflation rate, but the cost of living remains high – here’s why
Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Taiwo Hassan Odugbemi, Lecturer in Economics, University of Abuja

Nigeria recently rebased its consumer price index (CPI) from 2009 to 2024, leading to a significant drop in the reported inflation rate from 34.80% to 24.48%.

This change has sparked discussions on the likely impact on economic planning, policy decisions, and public perception of inflation. Taiwo Odugbemi, an economist, unpacks what it means for a country to rebase its inflation rate and its implications for citizens.

What is inflation rate rebasing and how is it done?

Inflation rate rebasing follows a structured approach led by the National Bureau of Statistics to improve the accuracy of inflation measurements. Essentially what it means is that the National Bureau of Statistics expanded its data collection efforts to include a broader range of states, local government areas, and rural communities.

The recent inflation revision involved:

Updating the consumer price index basket

The bureau reviewed and changed the composition of goods and services in the consumer price index basket. The index tracks the rate at which prices change over time, monthly or annually.

These changes align the measurement of price changes with shifts in consumer spending habits.

The changes to the basket are based on the household expenditure surveys which collect information on what households consume and spend.

Categories such as telecommunications and technology were given greater weight. Less relevant items such as food and non-alcoholic beverages received reduced weighting to ensure the consumer price index accurately represents present-day household spending.

Rebasing the inflation index

The changes to the composition of the consumer price index basket require a change in the reference (base) year. The bureau has changed the consumer price index base year from 2009 to 2024.

This adjustment aligns inflation measurements with current economic realities, reducing distortions caused by outdated reference periods. To achieve this, the National Bureau of Statistics has implemented high-frequency data collection methods, such as the National Longitudinal Phone Survey, which allows for more timely assessments of economic indicators.

Adjusting weights of consumer price index components

Each part of the consumer price index was given a new weight based on updated national consumption data. Spending categories with increased significance, such as transport and digital services, were given higher weights, while categories with declining relevance such as gas and other fuels were adjusted downward.

Expanding data collection coverage

The National Bureau of Statistics improved price data collection by:
- increasing the sample size and geographical coverage
- increasing the frequency of data collection
- incorporating price variations from informal markets.
The informal sector significantly contributes to Nigeria’s economy, accounting for approximately 58% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Read more: Nigeria’s 2025 budget has major flaws and won’t ease economic burden

What does this rate rebase mean? Is it unusual?

The rebase is a revision in the way inflation is measured. It reflects an effort to represent price movements and economic conditions more accurately.

Inflation readjustment is not uncommon among economies striving for better data accuracy. Countries such as Ghana and Kenya have undertaken similar revisions in recent years.

Ghana’s consumer price index rebasing in 2019 led to a lower reported inflation rate as it was calculated on newer spending habits.

Similarly, in 2014, Nigeria rebased its gross domestic product. This resulted in a significant revision of economic indicators.

Inflation in Nigeria reached 29.90% in January 2024. Revising how it is measured could be an attempt to capture structural economic changes more precisely.

Concerns over outdated consumer price index weights might have driven the move. The rebase could also have been done because of shifts in consumer spending, or improvements in statistical methodologies to enhance policy-making and economic planning.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the rebasing was necessary in order to reflect changes in consumption patterns.

Given Nigeria’s persistent inflationary pressures, made worse by currency depreciation and food supply disruptions, this adjustment could have significant implications for economic forecasting and policy responses.

Read more: Nigeria’s Brics partnership: economist outlines potential benefits

What are the implications for Nigerians?

If inflation is perceived as declining, consumer confidence may improve, leading to increased spending and investment.

However, many Nigerians may still feel that the cost of living remains high, particularly as food inflation remains a major concern.

For workers and businesses, the adjustment could influence wage negotiations and pricing strategies. If inflation is officially lower, employers may resist wage increases, arguing that the real cost of living has not risen as sharply as previously thought.

Similarly, businesses may reassess pricing decisions based on the revised inflation outlook.

A lower reported inflation rate might reduce pressure on policymakers to expand social safety nets, even if citizens still struggle with economic hardship.

Read more: Nigeria’s economy in 2025 doesn’t look bright — analyst explains why

What changes in policy can be expected?

This adjustment can alter the way monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies are formulated.

Monetary policy adjustments

With a lower inflation rate, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may reconsider its aggressive tightening stance, which is reflected in the level it sets interest rates at.

Previously, high inflation prompted the central bank to raise the monetary policy rate to 22.75% in a bid to curb inflation. Raising the rate makes it more expensive to borrow money, so demand for goods is lower and this reduces price increases.

The revised inflation figure could justify a more measured approach to interest rate adjustments, potentially easing borrowing costs for businesses and households. This could support economic growth but must be carefully managed.

In the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting after the inflation rebasing, the committee decided for the first time in three years to pause interest rate hikes.

Fiscal policy considerations

The government may use the revised inflation data to reassess budgetary projections, wage policies, and what it spends on subsidy programmes.

A lower inflation rate could reduce the urgency for drastic public sector wage increases, though real income concerns remain.

Additionally, it might influence subsidy policies, particularly in energy and agriculture. Lower inflation could be used to justify gradual subsidy phaseouts without significant backlash.

Exchange rate management

A lower inflation rate could improve investor confidence and reduce pressure on the naira. The central bank may use this as a basis to re-calibrate foreign exchange interventions, aiming for greater currency stability.

If inflation is perceived as more controlled, capital inflows may increase, supporting the exchange rate and easing forex liquidity challenges.

– Nigeria reduces inflation rate, but the cost of living remains high – here’s why
– https://theconversation.com/nigeria-reduces-inflation-rate-but-the-cost-of-living-remains-high-heres-why-251073

MIL OSI Africa –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Government to unleash the North Sea’s clean energy future
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

Press release

Government to unleash the North Sea’s clean energy future

The government is consulting on plans to put the North Sea at the heart of Britain’s clean energy future and drive economic growth.
UK government consults on plan to unleash the North Sea’s clean energy future and ensure prosperous and sustainable transition for oil and gas

this plan backs industry to make North Sea a world-leader in offshore industries, such as hydrogen, carbon capture and wind, as part of the government’s clean energy superpower mission

it also offers oil and gas industry long-term certainty on the fiscal landscape by ending the Energy Profits Levy and consulting on a new regime to boost investment in jobs and growth

consultation gives certainty to industry about the lifespan of oil and gas projects by committing to maintain existing fields for their lifetime and work with business and communities on a managed transition, while implementing the commitment not to issue new licences to explore new fields

The government has today (Wednesday 5 March) launched a consultation that will put the North Sea – its communities, workers, businesses and supply chains – at the heart of Britain’s clean energy future to drive economic growth and deliver the Plan for Change. 

This will support private investment into the technologies that will deliver the next generation of good jobs for North Sea workers, invest in local communities, cut carbon emissions and help the UK become energy secure.

The consultation sets out the next steps in the government’s overarching objective for the North Sea to make it a world leading example of an offshore clean energy industry, building on the UK’s world-class oil and gas heritage. In addition to maintaining existing oil and gas fields, and continuing ongoing domestic production, which have been critical to the UK’s energy system and will continue to play an important role for decades to come, the government wants to boost the economy through the expansion of clean technologies, protecting the country’s energy security in the process. To achieve this, the government needs to ensure the oil and gas industry and its workers can take advantage of a clean energy future.

Separately, HM Treasury and HM Revenue and Customs are confirming that the Energy Profits Levy will end in 2030. They are consulting on what a new regime could look like, to respond to any future shocks in oil and gas prices. The government will work closely with the sector and other stakeholders to develop an approach that protects jobs in existing and future industries and delivers a fair return for the nation, during times of unusually high prices. The government will ensure that the oil and gas industry has the long-term certainty it needs on the future fiscal landscape, helping to support investment and protect businesses and jobs now and for the future.

The government is committed to working with industry, communities, trade unions and wider organisations to develop a plan that will ensure a phased transition for the North Sea – creating tens of thousands more jobs in offshore renewables estimated by 2030.  

The government recognises the call of workers and trade unions for a coordinated plan to protect good jobs, pay terms and conditions in the North Sea, and commits to shaping this plan with workers and unions.

The consultation also includes delivering the government’s commitment not to issue new licences to explore new oil and gas fields in the UK, in line with the science of what is required to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees. The consultation also engages with industry on how to manage existing fields, which will continue to make an important contribution during the clean energy transition, for the entirety of their lifespan.  

This comes after the government has backed new investment into Scotland’s clean energy future, awarding £55.7 million to the Port of Cromarty Firth, securing critical facilities needed for the rapid development of new floating offshore wind farms and ensuring that they are built from the UK.

By sprinting to achieve this mission, the UK can take back control of its energy and protect both family and national finances from fossil fuel price spikes – with cleaner, affordable, homegrown power. As part of this, Britain must also reduce its dependency on oil and gas, which leaves consumers exposed to unstable global energy markets, as its price is set on international markets. 

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said:

The North Sea will be at the heart of Britain’s energy future. For decades, its workers, businesses and communities have helped power our country and our world.

Oil and gas production will continue to play an important role and, as the world embraces the drive to clean energy, the North Sea can power our Plan for Change and clean energy future in the decades ahead.

This consultation is about a dialogue with North Sea communities – businesses, trade unions, workers, environmental groups and communities – to develop a plan that enables us to take advantage of the tremendous opportunities of the years ahead.

Diversifying the North Sea industries while domestic production is managed for decades to come is key to protecting its jobs and investment in the long-term. Today’s consultation explores how to harness the North Sea’s existing infrastructure, natural assets and world-leading expertise to deploy new technologies – like hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and renewables – to create skilled jobs, meet the UK’s climate obligations, and make the UK a clean energy superpower.

It is estimated that the offshore renewables workforce, including offshore wind, CCUS and hydrogen, could increase to between 70,000 and 138,000 in 2030, Meanwhile, an up-and-running carbon capture industry alone is expected to add around £5 billion per year of gross value to the UK economy by 2050.

New proposals could also see changes to the role of North Sea Transition Authority, as the regulator of UK oil and gas, offshore hydrogen, and carbon storage industries. This includes ensuring the authority has the regulatory framework it needs to support the government’s vision for the long-term future of the North Sea and enable an orderly and prosperous transition to clean energy.

The government has already taken rapid steps in accelerating clean energy industries – with the biggest ever investment in offshore wind and up to £21.7 billion in funding over the next 25 years for carbon capture and storage and hydrogen projects. This comes alongside the launch of Great British Energy, headquartered in Aberdeen, and the creation of a National Wealth Fund, both of which will unlock significant investment in clean power projects across the UK and help create thousands of skilled jobs.

The government has also consulted on revised environmental guidance offshore oil and gas projects and will respond to give certainty to the industry and enable developers to resume applying for consents for already-licensed projects. This follows a Supreme Court ruling last year that requires regulators to consider the impact of burning oil and gas – known as scope 3 emissions – in the Environmental Impact Assessment for new projects.

Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, James Murray, said:

We are committed to working together with the sector on the future of the North Sea by providing the stability they need to keep investing and supporting jobs across the country while ensuring they make a fair contribution at times of unusually high prices.

Tania Kumar, Net Zero Director, CBI said:

The North Sea has long been a cornerstone of the UK’s energy sector and will continue to play a vital role in securing energy independence and transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Today’s consultations highlight the government’s commitment to a managed transition. Success hinges on our collaboration with communities, workers, and businesses to develop a practical plan.

Robust regulation and the pivotal role of the North Sea Transition Authority will be essential. The UK’s net zero economy is growing faster than the rest of the economy – the future is green growth and managing the transition away from fossil fuels to a clean energy future for the North Sea is vital to achieving it.

Dhara Vyas, CEO, Energy UK said:

Today’s announcement offers a positive step toward a just transition for offshore workers. The North Sea has been an engine of economic growth and energy security for the UK, but it’s critical to ensure pathways are available for offshore workers to transition to the low carbon industries of the future. The government has a sent a strong signal about the UK’s clean energy future, and the role the North Sea will continue to play in fostering clean technologies such as offshore wind, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. The clean energy mission can help ensure the North Sea’s best days are ahead of it, powering economic growth and enabling the UK to lead the way in the global clean industrial revolution.

David Whitehouse, Chief Executive, OEUK said:

The UK offshore energy industry, including its oil and gas sector, is responsible for thousands of jobs across Scotland and the UK, and today the government has committed to meaningful consultation on the long-term future of our North Sea. That is important and welcomed. Energy policy underpins our national security – how we build a clean energy future and leverage our proud heritage matters.

Today’s consultations, on both the critical role of the North Sea in the energy transition and how the taxation regime will respond to unusually high oil and gas prices, will help to begin to give certainty to investors and create a stable investment environment for years to come. We will continue to work with government and wider stakeholders to ensure a future North Sea which delivers economic growth and supports the communities that rely on this sector and workers across right and the UK.

Rachel Solomon Williams, Executive Director, Aldersgate Group said:

The private sector recognises the growth opportunity of the clean energy transition alongside the risks associated with investments that are incompatible with the 1.5C target. This consultation is an important step on the path to building a prosperous and resilient economy, with wider benefits across all regions of the UK. Investing in assets that risk becoming stranded is sustainable for neither the UK economy nor the environment – the government’s recognition of this position will contribute to resolving uncertainty and building private sector confidence for clean energy investments in the region.

The skills and expertise built over recent decades in the North Sea are invaluable. They are highly transferable for clean energy and other growth sectors, both directly and with further upskilling. We welcome the government’s announcement that it is ensuring that the North Sea transition makes best use of the strengths in the region, creating opportunities and jobs. Capturing this growth opportunity for the UK must ensure that the local communities and workers can play a role in future energy sectors. The right policy framework and engagement with industry and local communities can enable a transition to net zero emissions without deindustrialisation.

Dan McGrail, Chief Executive, RenewableUK said:

The biggest offshore wind farms in the world are being built in the North Sea and even more ambitious projects are being planned. Offshore wind is at the very heart of the government’s mission to reach clean power by 2030 and net zero by 2050, and the industry also offers the UK one of its biggest opportunities for job creation, industrial regeneration and economic growth.

The North Sea is already playing a crucial role in powering the UK and this is set to grow in the years ahead. A future focused on offshore wind isn’t just cleaner – it provides a more stable energy system for billpayers as we will be less exposed to volatile international fossil fuel prices. Offshore wind also offers opportunities for skilled workers from other industries to transfer into this dynamic and innovative sector.

Notes to Editors

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s consultation on Building the North Sea’s Energy Future will run for 8 weeks from 5 March to 30 April.

The government is consulting on how to deliver its commitment to end new licences to explore new fields, including all new seaward exploration and production licences to search for and extract new oil and gas resources in the UK. Licence extensions and transfers would not be affected, to facilitate existing fields to operate for the entirety of their lifetime and support the government’s commitments not to revoke existing licences. Licences for carbon storage, gas storage and methane drainage would also not be affected. 

The consultation also sets out the government’s commitment to end new licences for onshore oil and gas exploration and production in England.  

HM Treasury’s consultation on High Price Mechanism for Oil and Gas will run for 12 weeks from 5 March to 28 May.

Officials figures from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s ‘Digest of UK Energy Statistics’ show a 72% reduction in UK oil and gas production occurring between 1999 and 2023. The North Sea Transition Authority also predicts an 89 per cent drop in UK oil and gas production by 2050. 

Office for National Statistics’ analysis shows that direct jobs in oil and gas extraction fell by around a third between 2014 and 2023. 

Meanwhile, findings from the Robert Gordon University study ‘Powering up the Workforce’ in 2023 estimated that the offshore renewables workforce – which includes offshore wind, carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen – could increase to between 70,000 and 138,000 in 2030. This study also found that over 90% of the UK’s oil and gas workforce have medium to high skills transferability and are well positioned to work in adjacent energy sector. 

Today’s announcement also comes after the government confirmed Aberdeen, Cheshire, Lincolnshire and Pembrokeshire as key growth regions for clean energy and launched pilots to help workers in these areas access jobs in new clean energy industries.  

Oil and gas workers will also get help to move into these sectors, thanks to a new energy ‘skills passport’ launched last month – led by Renewable UK and Offshore Energies UK, and backed by UK and Scottish Governments. This tool will support workers into careers in offshore wind initially, before being expanded to other renewables roles later this year. 

Many of the skills required for the transition already exist, with research showing that 90% of oil and gas workers have transferable skills for offshore renewable jobs. The government is now exploring what further support is needed to help workers take full advantage of the UK’s clean energy transition, as part of its consultation on the future of the North Sea.

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Published 5 March 2025
MIL OSI United Kingdom –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: Nigeria reduces inflation rate, but the cost of living remains high – here’s why
Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Taiwo Hassan Odugbemi, Lecturer in Economics, University of Abuja

Nigeria recently rebased its consumer price index (CPI) from 2009 to 2024, leading to a significant drop in the reported inflation rate from 34.80% to 24.48%.

This change has sparked discussions on the likely impact on economic planning, policy decisions, and public perception of inflation. Taiwo Odugbemi, an economist, unpacks what it means for a country to rebase its inflation rate and its implications for citizens.

What is inflation rate rebasing and how is it done?

Inflation rate rebasing follows a structured approach led by the National Bureau of Statistics to improve the accuracy of inflation measurements. Essentially what it means is that the National Bureau of Statistics expanded its data collection efforts to include a broader range of states, local government areas, and rural communities.

The recent inflation revision involved:

Updating the consumer price index basket

The bureau reviewed and changed the composition of goods and services in the consumer price index basket. The index tracks the rate at which prices change over time, monthly or annually.

These changes align the measurement of price changes with shifts in consumer spending habits.

The changes to the basket are based on the household expenditure surveys which collect information on what households consume and spend.

Categories such as telecommunications and technology were given greater weight. Less relevant items such as food and non-alcoholic beverages received reduced weighting to ensure the consumer price index accurately represents present-day household spending.

Rebasing the inflation index

The changes to the composition of the consumer price index basket require a change in the reference (base) year. The bureau has changed the consumer price index base year from 2009 to 2024.

This adjustment aligns inflation measurements with current economic realities, reducing distortions caused by outdated reference periods. To achieve this, the National Bureau of Statistics has implemented high-frequency data collection methods, such as the National Longitudinal Phone Survey, which allows for more timely assessments of economic indicators.

Adjusting weights of consumer price index components

Each part of the consumer price index was given a new weight based on updated national consumption data. Spending categories with increased significance, such as transport and digital services, were given higher weights, while categories with declining relevance such as gas and other fuels were adjusted downward.

Expanding data collection coverage

The National Bureau of Statistics improved price data collection by:
- increasing the sample size and geographical coverage
- increasing the frequency of data collection
- incorporating price variations from informal markets.
The informal sector significantly contributes to Nigeria’s economy, accounting for approximately 58% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Read more:
Nigeria’s 2025 budget has major flaws and won’t ease economic burden

What does this rate rebase mean? Is it unusual?

The rebase is a revision in the way inflation is measured. It reflects an effort to represent price movements and economic conditions more accurately.

Inflation readjustment is not uncommon among economies striving for better data accuracy. Countries such as Ghana and Kenya have undertaken similar revisions in recent years.

Ghana’s consumer price index rebasing in 2019 led to a lower reported inflation rate as it was calculated on newer spending habits.

Similarly, in 2014, Nigeria rebased its gross domestic product. This resulted in a significant revision of economic indicators.

Inflation in Nigeria reached 29.90% in January 2024. Revising how it is measured could be an attempt to capture structural economic changes more precisely.

Concerns over outdated consumer price index weights might have driven the move. The rebase could also have been done because of shifts in consumer spending, or improvements in statistical methodologies to enhance policy-making and economic planning.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the rebasing was necessary in order to reflect changes in consumption patterns.

Given Nigeria’s persistent inflationary pressures, made worse by currency depreciation and food supply disruptions, this adjustment could have significant implications for economic forecasting and policy responses.

Read more:
Nigeria’s Brics partnership: economist outlines potential benefits

What are the implications for Nigerians?

If inflation is perceived as declining, consumer confidence may improve, leading to increased spending and investment.

However, many Nigerians may still feel that the cost of living remains high, particularly as food inflation remains a major concern.

For workers and businesses, the adjustment could influence wage negotiations and pricing strategies. If inflation is officially lower, employers may resist wage increases, arguing that the real cost of living has not risen as sharply as previously thought.

Similarly, businesses may reassess pricing decisions based on the revised inflation outlook.

A lower reported inflation rate might reduce pressure on policymakers to expand social safety nets, even if citizens still struggle with economic hardship.

Read more:
Nigeria’s economy in 2025 doesn’t look bright — analyst explains why

What changes in policy can be expected?

This adjustment can alter the way monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies are formulated.

Monetary policy adjustments

With a lower inflation rate, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may reconsider its aggressive tightening stance, which is reflected in the level it sets interest rates at.

Previously, high inflation prompted the central bank to raise the monetary policy rate to 22.75% in a bid to curb inflation. Raising the rate makes it more expensive to borrow money, so demand for goods is lower and this reduces price increases.

The revised inflation figure could justify a more measured approach to interest rate adjustments, potentially easing borrowing costs for businesses and households. This could support economic growth but must be carefully managed.

In the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting after the inflation rebasing, the committee decided for the first time in three years to pause interest rate hikes.

Fiscal policy considerations

The government may use the revised inflation data to reassess budgetary projections, wage policies, and what it spends on subsidy programmes.

A lower inflation rate could reduce the urgency for drastic public sector wage increases, though real income concerns remain.

Additionally, it might influence subsidy policies, particularly in energy and agriculture. Lower inflation could be used to justify gradual subsidy phaseouts without significant backlash.

Exchange rate management

A lower inflation rate could improve investor confidence and reduce pressure on the naira. The central bank may use this as a basis to re-calibrate foreign exchange interventions, aiming for greater currency stability.

If inflation is perceived as more controlled, capital inflows may increase, supporting the exchange rate and easing forex liquidity challenges.

Taiwo Hassan Odugbemi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Nigeria reduces inflation rate, but the cost of living remains high – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/nigeria-reduces-inflation-rate-but-the-cost-of-living-remains-high-heres-why-251073
MIL OSI – Global Reports –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Government unlocks floating offshore wind with major investment for Scottish port
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

Press release

Government unlocks floating offshore wind with major investment for Scottish port

The expansion of Port of Cromarty Firth will make it the first port able to make floating offshore wind turbines on site and at scale in the UK, backed by a grant from the Floating Offshore Wind Manufacturing Investment Scheme (FLOWMIS).
Grant funding from UK government into Scotland’s floating offshore wind sector to drive growth and create hundreds of jobs

when fully developed, the port is expected to support up to 1,000 highly skilled jobs

Port of Cromarty Firth to become the UK’s first port able to make floating offshore wind turbines at scale – representing the next step of government’s Plan for Change to deliver clean power

The Port of Cromarty Firth in Scotland will be a major hub for the UK’s world-leading floating offshore wind industry, as the UK government announces over £55 million for its expansion – creating hundreds of skilled jobs and generating growth, helping deliver the government’s Plan for Change.

Offshore wind projects are crucial to delivering the UK’s mission for clean power by 2030 and to become a clean energy superpower. The UK is already home to the largest grid-connected floating offshore wind farm in the world, with a further 30GW in the pipeline, and the latest statistics showing that wind generated more power than gas last year.

The expansion of Port of Cromarty Firth will make it the first port able to make floating offshore wind turbines on site and at scale in the UK, backed by a grant from the Floating Offshore Wind Manufacturing Investment Scheme (FLOWMIS).

This initial financial backing from the UK government paves the way for the port to secure match-funding from other investors, with the port expected to become operational by the start of 2028.

Construction work on the port’s expansion is expected to create up to 320 jobs. When fully developed, the port is expected to support up to 1,000 skilled jobs in the construction, installation and operational support of offshore and floating offshore wind – such as crane operators, marine engineers, and people working on the vessels towing the turbines out to sea.

Energy Minister Michael Shanks said:

Communities in Scotland and across the country should be powered by reliable, home-grown, clean energy from British coastlines – this is how we reduce our reliance on unstable fossil fuel markets and bring down energy bills for good.

That’s why the government is getting on with building the infrastructure needed to roll out clean energy quickly, creating skilled jobs in local communities and driving growth – the priority in our Plan for Change.

The UK is already a world leader in floating offshore wind, but this support for Cromarty Firth will take us even further – creating hundreds of jobs in Scotland and delivering energy security for the UK.

Scottish Secretary, Ian Murray, said:

Scotland is a key part of making the UK a global leader in clean energy and this investment is a significant vote of confidence in the Inverness and Cromarty Firth Green Freeport and the surrounding area.

Through our Plan for Change the UK government is paving the way for cutting-edge floating offshore wind technology while also helping to create highly skilled jobs and drive economic growth.

Alex Campbell, Port of Cromarty Firth Chief Executive, said:

The Port is delighted that FLOWMIS funding has been secured for our ambitious Phase 5 expansion, which is a critical step towards creating the UK’s first custom-built floating offshore wind integration port.

We believe this confirmation by the UK government shows the faith in our Trust Port status to deliver jobs and economic growth locally and nationally, and that the certainty from this announcement will unlock further investment in other Ports across the Inverness and Cromarty Firth Green Freeport to boost their complementary plans.

The £55.7 million grant award is the latest step taken by the government to deliver clean power by 2030 and support growth. The government also launched the Clean Industry Bonus, incentivising offshore wind developers to invest in cleaner supply chains and create jobs in industrial communities.

FLOWMIS was launched in 2023, designed to provide grants to ports to support development of port infrastructure needed for deployment of floating offshore wind at scale. The Port of Cromarty Firth is one of two ports selected for funding, with plans for the second shortlisted port, Port Talbot, under development.

Notes for editors

The Port of Cromarty Firth estimates that between 280 – 1,000 FTE jobs will be created when the port becomes fully operational.

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Published 5 March 2025
MIL OSI United Kingdom –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: The child boss in ‘Severance’ reveals a devastating truth about work and child-rearing in the 21st century

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Anna Mae Duane, Professor of English, University of Connecticut

Miss Huang is, in many ways, capitalism’s ideal child. Apple TV+

In the second season of “Severance,” there’s an unexpected character: a child supervisor named Miss Huang, who matter-of-factly explains she’s a child “because of when I was born.”

Miss Huang’s deadpan response is more than just a clever quip. Like so much in the Apple TV+ series, which has broken viewership records for the streaming service, I think it reveals a devastating truth about the role of work in the 21st century.

As a scholar of childhood studies, I also see historical echoes: What constitutes a “child” – and whether one gets to claim childhood at all – has always depended on when and where a person is born.

An age of innocence?

Americans are deeply invested in the idea of childhood as a time of innocence, with kids protected by doting adults from the harsh realities of work and making ends meet.

However, French historian Philippe Ariès famously argued that childhood, as many understand it today, simply did not exist in the past.

The 14th-century painting ‘Madonna of Veveri’ depicts a young child with adultlike proportions.
The Print Collector/Getty Images

Using medieval art as one resource, Ariès pointed out that children were often portrayed as miniature adults, without special attributes, such as plump features or silly behaviors, that might mark them as fundamentally different from their older counterparts.

Looking at baptism records, Ariès also discovered that many parents gave siblings the same name, and he explained this phenomenon by suggesting that devastatingly high child mortality rates prevented parents from investing the sort of love and affection in their children that’s now considered a core component of parenthood.

While historians have debated many of Ariès’ specific claims, his central insight remains powerful: Our modern understanding of childhood as a distinct life stage characterized by play, protection and freedom from adult responsibilities is a relatively recent historical development. Ariès argued that children didn’t emerge as a focus of unconditional love until the 17th century.

Kids at work

The belief that a child deserves a life free from the stress of the workplace came along still later.

After all, if Miss Huang had been born in the 19th century, few people would question her presence in the workplace. The Industrial Revolution yielded accounts of children working 16-hour days and accorded no special protection because of their tender age and emotional vulnerability. Well into the 20th century, children younger than Miss Huang routinely worked in factories, mines and other dangerous environments.

To today’s viewers of “Severance,” the presence of a child supervisor in the sterile, oppressive workplace of the show’s fictional Lumon Industries feels jarring precisely because it violates the deeply held belief that children are occupants of a separate sphere, their innocence shielding them from the dog-eat-dog environs of competitive workplaces.

Lewis Hine’s 1908 photograph of girls working at Newberry Mills in Newberry, S.C.
Library of Congress

Childhood under threat

As a child worker, Miss Huang might seem like an uncanny ghost of a bygone era of childhood. But I think she’s closer to a prophet: Her role as child-boss warns viewers about what a work-obsessed future holds.

Today, the ideal childhood – access to play, care and a meaningful education – is increasingly under threat.

As politicians and policymakers insist that children are the future, many of them refuse to support the intensive caregiving required to transform newborns into functioning adults. As philosopher Nancy Fraser has argued, capitalism relies on someone doing that work, while assigning it little to no monetized value.

Child-rearing in the 21st century exists within a troubling paradox: Mothers provide unpaid child care for their own children, while those who professionally care for others’ children – predominantly women of color and immigrants – receive meager compensation for this essential work.

In other words, economic elites and the politicians they support say they want to cultivate future workers. But they don’t want to fund the messy, inefficient, time-consuming process that raising modern children requires.

The show’s name comes from a “severance” procedure that workers undergo to separate their work memories from their personal ones. It offers a darkly comic version of work-life balance, with Lumon office workers able to completely disconnect their work selves from their personalities off the clock. Each is distinct: A character’s “innie” is the person they are at the job, and their “outtie” is who they are at home.

I see this as an apt metaphor for how market capitalism seeks to separate the slow, patient work required to raise children and care for other loved ones from the cold-eyed pursuit of economic efficiency. Parents are expected to work as if they don’t have children and raise children as if they don’t work.

The result is a system that makes traditional notions of childhood – with its unwieldy dependencies, its inefficient play and its demands for attention and care – increasingly untenable.

Capitalism’s ideal child

Plummeting global fertility rates around the world speak to this crisis in child care, with the U.S., Europe, South Korea and China falling well below the birth rate required to replace the existing population.

Even as Elon Musk frets about women choosing not to have children, he seems eager to restrict any government aid that would provide the time or resources that raising children requires.

Accessible health care, affordable, healthy food and stable housing are out of the reach of many. The current administration’s quest for what it calls “government efficiency” is poised to shred safety net programs that help millions of low-income children.

In the midst of this dilemma, Miss Huang offers a surreal solution to the problems children pose in 2025.

She is, in many ways, capitalism’s ideal child. Already a productive worker as a tween, she requires no parent’s time, no teacher’s patience and no community’s resources. Like other workers and executives at Lumon, she seems to have shed the inefficient entanglements of family, love and play.

In this light, Miss Huang’s clever insistence that she is a child “because of when I was born” is darkly prophetic. In a world where every moment must be productive, where caregiving is systematically devalued and where human relationships are subordinated to market logic, Miss Huang represents a future where childhood survives only as a date on a birth certificate. All the other attributes are economically impractical.

Viewers don’t yet know if she’s severed. But at least from the perspective of the other workers in the show, Miss Huang works ceaselessly and, in doing so, proves that she is no child at all.

Or rather, she is the only kind of child that America’s economic system allows to thrive.

Anna Mae Duane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The child boss in ‘Severance’ reveals a devastating truth about work and child-rearing in the 21st century – https://theconversation.com/the-child-boss-in-severance-reveals-a-devastating-truth-about-work-and-child-rearing-in-the-21st-century-249123

MIL OSI – Global Reports –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: COVID-19 is the latest epidemic to show biomedical breakthroughs aren’t enough to eliminate a disease
Source: The Conversation – USA – By Powel H. Kazanjian, Professor of Infectious Diseases and of History, University of Michigan

COVID-19 has become a part of modern life that many people don’t pay much attention to. Spencer Platt via Getty Images News

The COVID-19 pandemic transformed over the past five years from a catastrophic threat that has killed over 7 million people to what most people regard today as a tolerable annoyance that doesn’t require precaution. Nonetheless, COVID-19 continues to kill over 2,000 people per month globally and cause severe illness in the infirm or elderly.

The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic – from devastation, to optimism for eradication, to persistent, uneven spread of disease – may seem unprecedented. As an infectious disease doctor and medical historian, however, I see similarities to other epidemics, including syphilis, AIDS and tuberculosis.

Vaccines, medications and other biomedical breakthroughs are necessary to eliminate epidemic diseases. But as I explore in my book, “Persisting Pandemics,” social, economic and political factors are equally important. On its own, medical science is not enough.

Syphilis, AIDS and TB have stuck around

Syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease first identified in 1495. It causes skin rashes and may progress to causing paralysis, blindness or both. For centuries, syphilis weakened nations by disabling parents, workers and soldiers in the prime of their lives. Innovative drugs – first Salvarsan (1909), then penicillin (1943) – offered a path toward eradication when used together with widespread testing.

A 1940s poster focuses on the medical cure for the disease.
National Archives, CC BY

Public health programs conducted from the 1930s through the 2000s, however, failed – not because of the efficacy of the treatments but because of socioeconomic conditions.

One challenge has been persistent stigma around getting tested for the disease and tracing sexual partners. Poverty is another; it can force women into commercial sex activities and prevent people from learning how to protect themselves from sexually transmitted infections. Population migration due to commerce or war can cause high-risk behaviors such as sexual promiscuity. Women in some cultures lack authority to negotiate for condom use. And governments have not consistently prioritized the sustained funding needed to support efforts to eliminate the disease.

Despite societal indifference toward syphilis, in the 2020s over 8 million new cases occur globally each year, particularly among racial minorities and low-income populations.

The history of HIV/AIDS is shorter than that of syphilis, but the trajectory has similarities. Doctors first described HIV/AIDS in 1981, when it was a nearly uniformly fatal sexually transmitted disease. Novel antiretroviral drugs introduced in 1996 offered medical scientists the hope of disease elimination through public health campaigns, centered on widespread testing and treatment, implemented in 2013.

But these programs, for reasons like with syphilis, are not meeting their treatment targets across all countries, especially among low-income populations and racial minorities. Sustaining funding for health care infrastructure and the multidrug regimens for 39 million people living with HIV poses an added challenge. Today, despite a cavalier public attitude toward the disease, AIDS causes over 630,000 deaths globally. That number will likely increase substantially given the Trump administration’s decision to cut funding for United States Agency for International Development programs.

Tuberculosis is a third disease that also depleted workforces and weakened nations, particularly in postindustrial revolution 19th-century cities. The disease spread widely because poverty placed people in poorly ventilated working conditions and crowded tenement dwellings. The development of new combination antimicrobial drug regimens offered an avenue for disease eradication in the 1960s.

Nonetheless, the inability to sustain funding to complete complex treatment courses, problems isolating people who could not afford suitable homes, and poor adherence due to homelessness, incarceration or migration during war or trade have compromised public health campaigns. Despite societal nonchalance, tuberculosis today kills up to 1.6 million globally yearly.

Memories of the early, emergency phase of the COVID-19 pandemic have faded.
Stan Grossfeld/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

The COVID-19 case study

The trajectories of these epidemics show how campaigns based solely on biomedical approaches that target pathogens are not enough to eliminate disease.

COVID-19 provides the latest example. In the U.S., the pandemic and its lockdowns disproportionately affected low-income people and racial minorities, especially those employed in front-line jobs that did not allow remote work from home. These groups were more likely to reside in crowded residences with poor ventilation or no space for isolation.

Despite the rapid development of a breakthrough mRNA vaccine that offered hope for what President Joe Biden euphorically termed “independence from the virus,” the promise never fully materialized.

Too few people received shots, in large part due to socioeconomic factors.

Wealthy countries purchased vaccines that lower-income countries could not afford. Allocation difficulties kept vaccines from remote regions of the world.

Vaccine hesitancy due to mistrust in science, along with sentiment that vaccine mandates violated individual freedoms, also prevented people from getting the shot. Similar attitudes reduced rates of mask-wearing and isolation.

Consequently, surges that could have been avoided took more lives.

Drugs and vaccines can’t do it alone

Modern medical science is unmatched in treating pathogens and disease symptoms. But to stop disease, it’s also critical to address the social, economic and political conditions that enable its spread.

Public health officials have started to implement a variety of structural solutions:
- Stigma reduction programs to reduce the shame of having a disease and increase the number of people tested.
- Cash transfers to provide sex workers with capital to invest in less risky, alternative businesses.
- Peer education to empower sex workers with the authority to negotiate for condoms and safer sex practices.
- Health infrastructure expansion to enable access to testing and treatment facilities.
- Housing reforms to guarantee adequate air filtration and appropriate isolation facilities.
- Resistance to anti-science appointees to government positions to prevent the implementation of regressive public health measures.
- Sustained funding for public health efforts across political administrations that may have different priorities.
A peer educator talks about HIV/AIDS with his colleagues at a maintenance shop in Kenya.
Wendy Stone/Corbis Historical via Getty Images

Early 20th-century public health officials had hoped that efficient scientific solutions alone could take the place of 19th-century, pre-germ-theory environmental sanitation efforts. COVID-19, syphilis, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis show that while biomedical breakthroughs are necessary to eliminate epidemic diseases, sustained focus and resources aimed at helping the most socially and economically vulnerable are essential.

Powel H. Kazanjian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. COVID-19 is the latest epidemic to show biomedical breakthroughs aren’t enough to eliminate a disease – https://theconversation.com/covid-19-is-the-latest-epidemic-to-show-biomedical-breakthroughs-arent-enough-to-eliminate-a-disease-245827
MIL OSI – Global Reports –
March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Economics: Why the most-favoured nation principle matters for business

Source: International Chamber of Commerce

Headline: Why the most-favoured nation principle matters for business

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MIL OSI Economics –

March 6, 2025

MIL-OSI: NuVista Energy Ltd. Announces Record Year End 2024 Reserves, Financial and Operating Results

Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

CALGARY, Alberta, March 05, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — NuVista Energy Ltd. (“NuVista” or the “Company“) (TSX: NVA) is pleased to announce record-setting reserves and strong financial and operating results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2024. The repeatable, predictable and profitable nature of our assets have once again underpinned significant growth in our reserves. Continued success in the Lower Montney and sanctioning of our Gold Creek area expansion have set the stage for continued growth toward 125,000 Boe/d. We are entering 2025 in a strong financial position with operational momentum and a commitment to shareholder returns. We are pleased to reaffirm our annual capital and production guidance for the year.

Operational and Financial Highlights

During the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024, NuVista:

Produced an average of 85,635 Boe/d in the fourth quarter, exceeding our guidance range of 83,000 – 84,000 Boe/d. We achieved our highest-ever annual average production of 83,084 Boe/d, an 8% increase from 2023. Annual production composition aligned with guidance, with a volume weighting of 30% condensate, 9% NGLs and 61% natural gas;

Successfully executed a capital expenditure⁽²⁾ program, investing $498.9 million in well and facility activities, including the drilling of 43 wells and the completion of 38 wells throughout the year. Fourth quarter, capital expenditures totaled $71.1 million, with 9 wells drilled;

Delivered annual adjusted funds flow⁽¹⁾ of $552.2 million ($2.68/share, basic⁽³⁾), with adjusted funds flow from the fourth quarter contributing $137.1 million ($0.67/share, basic);

Generated free adjusted funds flow⁽²⁾ of $39.6 million for the year ($0.19/share, basic⁽³⁾);

Repurchased and cancelled 5.9 million common shares in 2024 at an average price of $12.52 per common share, for a total cost of $74.4 million. Since the inception of the Company’s normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”) in 2022, we have repurchased and cancelled 36.5 million common shares for an aggregate cost of $438.3 million or $12.01 per share;

Exited the year with $5.4 million drawn on our $450 million credit facility and net debt⁽¹⁾ of $232.5 million, maintaining a favorable net debt to annualized fourth quarter adjusted funds flow⁽¹⁾ ratio of 0.4x;

Achieved annual net earnings of $305.7 million ($1.48/share, basic), including $99.2 million ($0.48/share, basic) in the fourth quarter;

Added LNG sales to our natural gas diversification portfolio by gaining exposure to the Japan/Korea marker (“JKM”) through a netback agreement with Trafigura based on 21,000 MMbtu/d of LNG for a period of up to thirteen years commencing January 1, 2027; and

Recognized as part of the TSX30 for the third consecutive year. The TSX30 recognizes the thirty top-performing companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) over the prior three-year period (see www.tsx.com/tsx30). We ranked a notable sixth place overall.

Notes:

(1)	Each of “adjusted funds flow”, “net debt” and “net debt to annualized fourth quarter adjusted funds flow” are capital management measures. Reference should be made to the section entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” in this press release.
(2)	Each of “free adjusted funds flow” and “capital expenditures” are non-GAAP financial measures that do not have any standardized meanings under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” in this press release.
(3)	Each of “adjusted funds flow per share” and “free adjusted funds flow per share” are supplementary financial measures. Reference should be made to the section entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” in this press release.

Significant Profitable and Repeatable Reserves Growth

NuVista is pleased to announce the results of our year end 2024 independent reserves evaluation conducted by GLJ Ltd. (“GLJ”) effective as at December 31, 2024 (the “GLJ Report”). NuVista’s proven track record of continuous improvement, along with the substantial depth and quality of our undeveloped resources, reinforces our ability to deliver sustained shareholder returns in our journey to 125,000 Boe/d.

Our GLJ Report includes the following key accomplishments:

Reported Proved Developed Producing (“PDP”) reserves of 177.3 MMBoe, a year-over-year increase of 9%, or a 12% increase on a per share basis, driven by a successful 2024 development program and 2% positive technical revisions due to new well outperformance;

Recorded Total Proved plus Probable (“TP+PA”) reserves of 779.7 MMBoe, a year-over-year increase of 21%, or a 24% increase on a per share basis, attributed to the continued success in NuVista’s multi-layer Montney development in Pipestone and successful Lower and Upper Montney delineation in Wapiti;

Replaced 150% and 550% of 2024 production on a PDP and TP+PA basis⁽¹⁾, respectively, reflecting the success of our 2024 capital program and continued expansion of our undeveloped location inventory;

Delivered PDP Finding, Development and Acquisition Cost (“FD&A”)⁽¹⁾ of $11.13/Boe that exceeded our expectations due to well outperformance and cost reductions;

Achieved a PDP recycle ratio⁽¹⁾ of 1.8x based on our 2024 operating netback⁽¹⁾;

TP+PA FD&A was $6.97/Boe, driven by the planned expansion of our infrastructure to 125,000 Boe/d and a 26% increase in undeveloped TP+PA drilling locations;

Total developed wells increased by 42 to 395, while the total undeveloped drilling locations increased by 9 to 1,189, which reflects over 25 years of development at the current pace⁽³⁾; and

PDP, TP, and TP+PA before-tax net present value, discounted at 10% (NPV10)⁽²⁾, are $10.01, $20.56, and $30.11 per share, respectively, at December 31, 2024, reflecting the underlying value of our assets.

Notes:

(1)	Each of “reserve replacement”, “FD&A costs”, “recycle ratio” and “operating netback” are non-GAAP financial ratios. See “Oil and Gas Advisories” and “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” in this press release for information relating to these specified financial measures.
(2)	Reference to “net present value per share” is a supplementary financial measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” in this press release.
(3)	Total undeveloped locations include 422 undeveloped proved plus probable drilling locations and 767 undeveloped contingent resource drilling locations. See “Oil and Gas Advisories”.

The detailed summary of our year end 2024 reserves disclosure and other oil and gas information is included below, and further information will be included in our Annual Information Form which will be filed on or before March 28, 2025 on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

Return of Capital to Shareholders and Balance Sheet Strength

NuVista’s approach to capital allocation is focused on the compounding effect of absolute growth and a reduction in our outstanding common shares to produce industry leading total returns. We intend to allocate a minimum of $100 million in 2025, to the repurchase of the Company’s common shares pursuant to our NCIB and will allocate at least 75% of any incremental free adjusted funds flow towards additional share repurchases.

We ended the year in a position of low debt and significant financial flexibility. As at December 31, 2024, our net debt was $232.5 million, well below our soft ceiling of approximately $350 million. We were minimally drawn on our $450 million covenant-based credit facility, at $5.4 million, with a net debt to annualized fourth quarter adjusted funds flow ratio of 0.4x. The net debt soft ceiling ensures that based on current production levels, our net debt to adjusted funds flow ratio remains at or below 1.0x in a stress test price environment of US$45/Bbl WTI and US$2.00/MMBtu NYMEX.

We remain focused on our disciplined and value-adding growth strategy, and providing significant shareholder returns. We continue to view share repurchases as the most effective initial method of returning capital to shareholders and will reassess this approach as our growth plan progresses.

Operations and 2025 Guidance

Operations through the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2025 have progressed well. Consistent utilization of our two drilling rigs continues to pay dividends with new spud to rig release records being set. Completion operations kicked off again in January and despite extremely frigid temperatures, pumping efficiency has come in better than planned. With strong execution thus far in 2025 capital costs are trending below budget and we are forecasting a well cost reduction of 3% year-over-year.

In Wapiti, we brought on a 5-well pad in Bilbo in January, which targeted three benches, including a Lower Montney, initial results from the pad are encouraging and in-line with expectations. We have finished drilling a 5-well pad in Elmworth, which is slated to come on-stream during the second quarter. In Gold Creek we are drilling a 4-well pad, including two Lower Montney wells, which is expected to come on-stream later in the second quarter. Notably, the 6-well pad between Gold Creek and Elmworth, which was co-developed across the entire stack of 4 zones, has reached its IP90 milestone producing on average 1,500 Boe/d per well, including 33% condensate. Importantly, the Lower Montney has performed in-line with the other benches. In Pipestone, we are completing a 14-well pad that is expected to come on-stream in the second quarter. Additionally, we are drilling an 8-well pad that is expected to come on-stream in the third quarter.

Production in January and February has been trending favorably, we forecast first quarter production to average 87,000 – 88,000 Boe/d. As exhibited above we have material production additions slated to come on-line in the coming months. As previously communicated, the majority of our 2025 growth will come from the Pipestone area with the start-up of a third-party gas plant (“Pipestone Plant”), which is expected to be online during the second quarter. The Pipestone Plant will unlock approximately 8,000 – 10,000 Boe/d of additional productive capacity for NuVista. Given the performance of our base assets and current outlook, we anticipate our annual production to average approximately 92,000 Boe/d, assuming a second quarter start-up of the Pipestone Plant. If this start-up is delayed into the fourth quarter of the year, our expected annual average production will be approximately 88,000 Boe/d. Consequently, this range allows us to reiterate our annual production guidance of approximately 90,000 Boe/d.

Further we reaffirm our annual capital expenditure guidance target of approximately $450 million, which will allow us to continue to prioritize at least a triple-digit return of capital to shareholders through the repurchase of our outstanding common shares.

We are fortunate that our business has the flexibility, superior asset quality and underlying balance sheet strength to afford this. We intend to continue our track record of carefully directing free adjusted funds flow towards a prudent balance of capital return to shareholders and debt reduction, while investing in high return growth projects. NuVista’s top quality asset base, deep inventory, and management’s relentless focus on value maximization supports our medium-term plans for value-adding growth to the plateau level of 125,000 Boe/d. We will continue to closely monitor and adjust to the environment to maximize the value of our asset base and ensure the long-term sustainability of our business. We would like to thank our staff, contractors, and suppliers for their continued dedication and delivery, and we thank our Board of Directors and our shareholders for their continued guidance and support.

The 2025 guidance does not include any potential impact of tariffs or trade-related regulations that have been announced by the U.S. and Canada, including the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canada effective March 4, 2025. See “Advisory regarding forward-looking information and statements”. Please note that our corporate presentation will be available at www.nuvistaenergy.com on March 5, 2025. NuVista’s audited financial statements, notes to the financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31, 2024, will be filed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) on March 5, 2025 and can also be obtained at www.nuvistaenergy.com.


FINANCIAL AND OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS
	Three months ended December 31						Year ended December 31
($ thousands, except otherwise stated)	2024		2023		% Change		2024		2023		% Change
FINANCIAL
Petroleum and natural gas revenues	281,454		365,497		(23	)	1,215,234		1,398,097		(13	)
Cash provided by operating activities	135,831		211,761		(36	)	600,253		721,342		(17	)
Adjusted funds flow ⁽³⁾⁽⁷⁾	137,059		201,987		(32	)	552,196		756,943		(27	)
Per share, basic ⁽⁶⁾	0.67		0.95		(29	)	2.68		3.50		(23	)
Per share, diluted ⁽⁶⁾	0.66		0.93		(29	)	2.64		3.40		(22	)
Net earnings	99,152		89,513		11		305,718		367,678		(17	)
Per share, basic	0.48		0.42		14		1.48		1.70		(13	)
Per share, diluted	0.48		0.41		17		1.46		1.65		(12	)
Total assets							3,450,419		3,058,053		13
Net capital expenditures ⁽¹⁾	71,090		113,258		(37	)	498,876		518,294		(4	)
Net debt ⁽³⁾							232,503		183,551		27
OPERATING
Daily Production
Natural gas (MMcf/d)	327.1		310.5		5		304.3		276.0		10
Condensate (Bbls/d)	22,657		26,889		(16	)	24,709		24,633		—
NGLs (Bbls/d)	8,455		7,287		16		7,661		6,545		17
Total (Boe/d)	85,635		85,924		—		83,084		77,185		8
Condensate & NGLs weighting	36	%	40	%			39	%	40	%
Condensate weighting ⁽⁸⁾	26	%	31	%			30	%	32	%
Average realized selling prices ⁽⁵⁾
Natural gas ($/Mcf)	2.78		3.45		(19	)	2.51		4.19		(40	)
Condensate ($/Bbl)	83.58		99.20		(16	)	94.83		100.02		(5	)
NGLs ($/Bbl) ⁽⁴⁾	30.38		32.46		(6	)	27.86		31.80		(12	)
Netbacks ($/Boe)
Petroleum and natural gas revenues ⁽⁷⁾	35.72		46.24		(23	)	39.96		49.62		(19	)
Realized gain on financial derivatives	1.75		0.46		280		0.86		0.41		110
Other income	0.01		—		—		0.11		—		—
Royalties ⁽⁷⁾	(3.13	)	(4.50	)	(30	)	(4.30	)	(4.80	)	(10	)
Transportation expense	(4.57	)	(4.54	)	1		(4.78	)	(4.77	)	—
Net operating expense ⁽²⁾	(11.07	)	(10.65	)	4		(11.37	)	(11.40	)	—
Operating netback ⁽²⁾	18.71		27.01		(31	)	20.48		29.06		(30	)
Corporate netback ⁽²⁾	17.40		25.55		(32	)	18.15		26.86		(32	)
SHARE TRADING STATISTICS
High ($/share)	14.18		13.72		3		14.86		13.72		8
Low ($/share)	10.34		10.40		(1	)	9.59		9.93		(3	)
Close ($/share)	13.82		11.04		25		13.82		11.04		25
Common shares outstanding (thousands of shares)							203,701		207,584		(2	)

NOTES:

⁽¹⁾	Non-GAAP financial measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled “Specified Financial Measures”.
⁽²⁾	Non-GAAP ratio that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled “Specified Financial Measures”.
⁽³⁾	Capital management measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled “Specified Financial Measures”.
⁽⁴⁾	Natural gas liquids (“NGLs”) includes butane, propane and ethane revenue and sales volumes, and sulphur revenue.
⁽⁵⁾	Product prices exclude realized gains/losses on financial derivatives.
⁽⁶⁾	Supplementary financial measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled “Specified Financial Measures”.
⁽⁷⁾	Includes the impact of a facility allocation adjustment, which impacted condensate revenues, royalties and transportation expense, reducing adjusted funds flow by $23.1 million for the three months and year ended December 31, 2024.
⁽⁸⁾	Includes the impact of a facility allocation adjustment. Excluding this adjustment, NuVista’s condensate weighting for the three months ended December 31, 2024 was 28%.

DETAILED SUMMARY OF CORPORATE RESERVES DATA

The following table provides summary reserve information based upon the GLJ Report using the published 3 Consultants’ Average January 1, 2025 price forecast:

	Natural Gas⁽²⁾	Natural Gas Liquids⁽⁴⁾	Oil⁽³⁾	Total
Reserves category⁽¹⁾⁽⁵⁾	Company Gross	Company Gross	Company Gross	Company Gross
	(MMcf)	(MBbls)	(MBbls)	(MBoe)
Proved
Developed producing	680,168	63,913	–	177,275
Developed non‑producing	93,825	10,140	–	25,777
Undeveloped	938,058	86,693	–	243,036
Total proved	1,712,051	160,747	–	446,088
Total probable	1,313,477	114,729	–	333,642
Total proved plus probable	3,025,528	275,475	–	779,730

NOTES:

⁽¹⁾	Numbers may not add due to rounding.
⁽²⁾	Includes conventional natural gas and shale gas.
⁽³⁾	Includes light and medium crude oil.
⁽⁴⁾	NGLs includes ethane, propane, butane, condensate and pentane plus.
⁽⁵⁾	Reserves have been presented on gross basis which are the Company’s total working interest share before the deduction of any royalties and without including any royalty interests of the Company.

The following table is a summary reconciliation of the year end working interest reserves for 2024, with the year end working interest reserves for 2023:

Company Gross	Natural Gas⁽¹⁾⁽³⁾ (MMcf)		Natural Gas Liquids⁽¹⁾⁽⁵⁾ (MBbls)		Oil⁽¹⁾⁽⁴⁾ (MBbls)		Total Oil Equivalent⁽¹⁾ (MBoe)
Total proved
Balance, December 31, 2023	1,546,471		144,132		–		401,877
Exploration and development⁽²⁾	234,672		24,335		–		63,447
Technical revisions	30,118		2,912		11		7,942
Acquisitions	18,123		1,720		–		4,741
Dispositions	(156	)	(18	)	–		(44	)
Economic Factors	(5,809	)	(498	)	–		(1,466	)
Production	(111,368	)	(11,837	)	(11	)	(30,409	)
Balance, December 31, 2024	1,712,051		160,747		–		446,088
Total proved plus probable
Balance, December 31, 2023	2,505,894		225,374		–		643,023
Exploration and development⁽²⁾	597,808		57,452		–		157,087
Technical revisions	12,434		2,496		11		4,579
Acquisitions	22,817		2,161		–		5,964
Dispositions	(201	)	(22	)	–		(56	)
Economic Factors	(1,857	)	(148	)	–		(458	)
Production	(111,368	)	(11,837	)	(11	)	(30,409	)
Balance, December 31, 2024	3,025,528		275,475		–		779,730

NOTES:

⁽¹⁾	Numbers may not add due to rounding.
⁽²⁾	Reserve additions for drilling extensions, infill drilling and improved recovery.
⁽³⁾	Includes conventional natural gas and shale gas.
⁽⁴⁾	Includes light and medium crude oil.
⁽⁵⁾	NGLs includes ethane, propane, butane, condensate and pentane plus.

The following table summarizes the future development capital required to bring undeveloped reserves and proved plus probable undeveloped reserves on production:

($ thousands, undiscounted)	Proved Producing⁽¹⁾	Proved⁽¹⁾	Proved plus Probable⁽¹⁾
2025	10,000	270,190	283,615
2026	–	441,337	441,337
2027	–	378,915	378,915
2028	–	582,820	623,529
2029	–	210,425	385,690
Remaining	–	–	1,205,057
Total (undiscounted)	10,000	1,883,686	3,318,141

NOTE:

⁽¹⁾	Numbers may not add due to rounding.

The following table outlines NuVista’s corporate finding, development and acquisition (“FD&A”) costs in more detail:

	3 Year-Average ⁽¹⁾				2024 ⁽¹⁾				2023 ⁽¹⁾
			Proved plus				Proved plus				Proved plus
	Proved		probable		Proved		probable		Proved		probable
Finding and development costs ($/Boe)	$	10.06	$	8.69	$	9.28	$	7.18	$	10.92	$	12.59
Finding, development and acquisition costs ($/Boe)	$	9.95	$	8.60	$	8.79	$	6.97	$	11.12	$	12.86

NOTE:

⁽¹⁾

F&D costs and FD&A are used as a measure of capital efficiency. The calculation for F&D costs includes all exploration and development capital for that period as outlined in the Company’s year-end financial statements plus the change in future development capital for that period. This total capital including the change in the future development capital is then divided by the change in reserves for that period including revisions for that same period. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change during the year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserve additions for the year. FD&A costs are calculated in the same manner except in addition to exploration and development capital and the change in future development capital, acquisition capital (net of any disposition proceeds) is also included in the calculation.

Summary of Corporate Net Present Value Data of Future Net Revenue

The estimated net present values of future net revenue before income taxes associated with NuVista’s reserves effective December 31, 2024 and based on the published 3 Consultants’ Average price forecast as at January 1, 2025 as set forth below, are summarized in the following table:

	Before Income Taxes
	Discount Factor (%/year)
Reserves category ⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾ ($ thousands)	0%	5%	10%	15%	20%
Proved
Developed producing	3,311,450	2,531,022	2,038,337	1,715,462	1,491,640
Developed non‑producing	589,610	437,020	350,631	295,990	258,256
Undeveloped	4,450,580	2,705,801	1,798,236	1,270,234	934,810
Total proved	8,351,651	5,673,843	4,187,204	3,281,686	2,684,706
Probable	7,457,152	3,482,560	1,946,864	1,232,453	849,096
Total proved plus probable	15,808,803	9,156,404	6,134,068	4,514,138	3,533,801

NOTES:

⁽¹⁾	Numbers may not add due to rounding.
⁽²⁾	All future net revenues are stated prior to the provision for interest income and other general and administrative expenses and after deduction of royalties, operating costs, estimated well and facility abandonment and reclamation costs and estimated future capital expenditures.
⁽³⁾	The estimated future net revenue contained in this press release does not necessarily represent the fair market value of the reserves.

The following table is a summary of pricing and inflation rate assumptions based on published 3 Consultants’ Average forecast prices and costs as at January 1, 2025:

Year	AECO Gas ($Cdn/ MMBtu)	NYMEX Gas ($US/ MMBtu)	Midwest Gas at Chicago ($US/ MMBtu)	Edmonton C5+ ($Cdn/Bbl)	Edmonton Propane ($Cdn/Bbl)	Edmonton Butane ($Cdn/Bbl)	WTI Cushing Oklahoma ($US/Bbl)	Edmonton Par Price 40 API ($Cdn/Bbl)	Exchange Rate⁽²⁾ ($US/$Cdn)
Forecast
2025	2.36	3.31	3.05	100.14	33.56	51.15	71.58	94.79	0.712
2026	3.33	3.73	3.53	100.72	32.78	49.98	74.48	97.04	0.728
2027	3.48	3.85	3.66	100.24	32.81	50.16	75.81	97.37	0.743
2028	3.69	3.93	3.73	102.73	33.63	51.41	77.66	99.80	0.743
2029	3.76	4.01	3.82	104.79	34.30	52.44	79.22	101.79	0.743
2030	3.83	4.09	3.89	106.86	34.99	53.49	80.80	103.83	0.743
2031	3.91	4.17	3.97	109.00	35.69	54.56	82.42	105.91	0.743
2032	3.99	4.26	4.05	111.19	36.40	55.65	84.06	108.02	0.743
2033	4.07	4.34	4.13	113.41	37.13	56.76	85.75	110.19	0.743
2034	4.15	4.43	4.21	115.69	37.87	57.90	87.46	112.39	0.743
2035	4.24	4.52	4.30	118.01	38.63	59.05	89.21	114.64	0.743
2036	4.32	4.61	4.39	120.37	39.40	60.24	90.99	116.93	0.743
2037	4.41	4.70	4.48	122.77	40.19	61.44	92.82	119.27	0.743
2038	4.49	4.79	4.56	125.23	41.00	62.67	94.67	121.65	0.743
2039	4.58	4.89	4.65	127.73	41.82	63.92	96.57	124.09	0.743
2040+	+2.0%/yr	+2.0%/yr	+2.0%/yr	+2.0%/yr	+2.0%/yr	+2.0%/yr	+2.0%/yr	+2.0%/yr	0.743

NOTES:

⁽¹⁾	Costs were not inflated in 2025 and inflated at 2% per annum thereafter.
⁽²⁾	Exchange rate used to generate the benchmark reference prices in this table.
⁽³⁾	NuVista’s future realized gas prices are forecasted based on a combination of various benchmark prices in addition to the AECO benchmark in order to reflect the favorable price diversification to other markets which NuVista has undertaken. Pricing at these markets has been accounted for in the GLJ Report. Additional information on NuVista’s gas marketing diversification will be available in our corporate presentation.

Advisories Regarding Oil and Gas Information

The reserve data provided in this press release presents only a portion of the disclosure required under National Instrument 51-101. All required information will be contained in the Company’s Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2024, on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca).

There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of crude oil, natural gas and NGL reserves and the future cash flows attributed to such reserves. The reserve and associated cash flow information set forth above are estimates only. In general, estimates of economically recoverable crude oil, natural gas and NGL reserves and the future net cash flows therefrom are based upon a number of variable factors and assumptions, such as historical production from the properties, production rates, ultimate reserve recovery, timing and amount of capital expenditures, marketability of oil and natural gas, royalty rates, the assumed effects of regulation by governmental agencies and future operating costs, all of which may vary materially. For these reasons, estimates of the economically recoverable crude oil, NGL and natural gas reserves attributable to any particular group of properties, classification of such reserves based on risk of recovery and estimates of future net revenues associated with reserves prepared by different engineers, or by the same engineers at different times, may vary. The Company’s actual production, revenues, taxes and development and operating expenditures with respect to its reserves will vary from estimates thereof and such variations could be material.

BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.

This press release contains a number of oil and gas metrics prepared by management, including F&D costs, FD&A costs, PDP per share, TP+PA per share, recycle ratio, operating netback, corporate netback and reserves replacement costs, which do not have standardized meanings or standard methods of calculation and therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. Such metrics have been included herein to provide readers with additional measures to evaluate NuVista’s performance on a comparable basis with prior periods; however, such measures are not reliable indicators of the future performance of NuVista, and future performance may not compare to the performance in previous periods. Details of how F&D costs, FD&A costs, operating netback, corporate netback and recycle ratios are calculated are set forth under the heading “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures – Non-GAAP Ratios”. Reserves replacement is calculated as the reserves category divided by estimated production.

Any references in this press release to initial production rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons, however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will continue production and decline thereafter. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for NuVista.

Any reference to capital efficiency has been prepared by management and is used to measure performance. NuVista calculates capital efficiency as the sum of the capital expenditures divided by average first year production rate for the applicable well(s). This term does not have a standardized meaning or standard calculation and is not comparable to similar measures used by other entities.

This press release discloses NuVista’s potential drilling locations in two categories: (i) undeveloped proved plus probable (TP+PA) drilling locations; and (ii) undeveloped contingent resources (2C) drilling locations. Undeveloped TP+PA drilling locations are derived the GLJ Report, and account for undeveloped drilling locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as applicable. Undeveloped 2C drilling locations are derived from a report prepared by GLJ evaluating NuVista’s contingent resources as of December 31, 2024 (“GLJ Contingent Resource Report”), and account for undeveloped drilling locations that have associated contingent resources based on a best estimate of such contingent resources. There is no certainty that we will drill all drilling locations and if drilled, there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional oil and gas production. The drilling locations on which we actually drill wells will ultimately depend upon the availability of capital, regulatory approvals, seasonal restrictions, oil and natural gas prices, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained and other factors. Contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Economic contingent resources are those contingent resources that are currently economically recoverable. The sub-classes included under economic contingent resources are Development Pending CR, Development on Hold CR, and Development Unclarified CR. Development Pending are resources where resolution of the final conditions for development is being actively pursued (high chance of development). Development on Hold are resources where there is a reasonable chance of development but there are major non-technical contingencies to be resolved that are usually beyond the control of the operator. Development Unclarified are resources where the evaluation is incomplete and there is ongoing activity to resolve any risks or uncertainties. Development Not Viable are resources that are not viable in the conditions prevailing at the effective date of the evaluation, and where no further data acquisition or evaluation is currently planned and hence there is a low chance of development. In the case of the contingent resources estimated in the GLJ Contingent Resource Report, contingencies include: (i) further delineation of interest lands; (ii) corporate commitment, and; (iii) final development plan. To further delineate interest lands additional wells must be drilled and tested to demonstrate commercial rates on the resource lands. Reserves are only assigned in close proximity to demonstrated productivity. As continued delineation drilling occurs, a portion of the contingent resources are expected to be reclassified as reserves. Confirmation of corporate intent to proceed with remaining capital expenditures within a reasonable timeframe is a requirement for the assessment of reserves. Finalization of a development plan includes timing, infrastructure spending and the commitment of capital.

Definitions of Oil and Gas Reserves

Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of crude oil and natural gas and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as of a given date, based on the analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical, and engineering data; the use of established technology; and specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable. Reserves are classified according to the degree of certainty associated with the estimates as follows:

Proved Reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.

Probable Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.

PDP or Proved Developed Producing Reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut-in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty.

Basis of presentation

Unless otherwise noted, the financial data presented in this press release has been prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) also known as International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”).

Natural gas liquids are defined by National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities” to include ethane, butane, propane, pentanes plus and condensate. Unless explicitly stated in this press release, references to “NGL” refers only to ethane, butane and propane and references to “condensate” refers to only to condensate and pentanes plus. NuVista has disclosed condensate and pentanes plus values separately from ethane, butane and propane values as NuVista believes it provides a more accurate description of NuVista’s operations and results therefrom.

Production split for Boe/d amounts referenced in the press release are as follows:

*Reference*	*Total Boe/d*	Natural Gas %		Condensate %		NGLs %

Q4 2024 production – actual	*85,635*	64	%	26	%	10	%
Q4 2024 production – guidance	*83,000 – 84,000*	61	%	30	%	9	%
2024 annual production – actual	*83,084*	61	%	30	%	9	%
2024 annual production – guidance	*83,500 – 86,000*	61	%	30	%	9	%
Q1 2025 production – guidance	*87,000 – 88,000*	63	%	28	%	9	%
2025 annual production – guidance	*~90,000*	61	%	30	%	9	%

Reserves advisories

The GLJ Report was prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (“COGE Handbook”) and is dated effective as of December 31, 2024. The GLJ Report was based on 3 Consultants’ Average January 1, 2025 forecast pricing and foreign exchange rates at January 1, 2025. All reserves information has been presented on a gross basis, which is the Company’s working interest share before deduction of royalties and without including any royalty interests of the Company. The reserves have been categorized accordance with the reserves definitions as set out in the COGE Handbook. The recovery and reserve estimates contained herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Also, estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates and future net revenue for all properties due to the effect of aggregation. All required reserve information for the Company will be contained in its Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2024, which will be accessible at www.sedarplus.ca.

With respect to disclosure contained herein regarding resources other than reserves, there is uncertainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources and there is significant uncertainty regarding the ultimate recoverability of such resources.

Advisory regarding forward-looking information and statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words “will”, “expects”, “believe”, “plans”, “potential” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. More particularly and without limitation, this press release contains forward looking statements, including but not limited to:

our intention to allocate $100 million to repurchase our common shares in 2025, with at least 75% of any incremental free adjusted funds flow also allocated to the repurchase of our common share pursuant to our NCIB;

that our soft ceiling net debt will allow our current production levels to be sustainable and maintain an adjusted funds flow ratio below 1.0x in a stress test price environment of US$45/Bbl WTI and US$2.00/MMBtu NYMEX;

NuVista’s ability to continue directing free adjusted funds flow towards a prudent balance of return of capital to shareholders and debt reduction, while investing in high return growth projects;

the anticipated allocation of free adjusted funds flow;

our expectation that our capital efficiency will continue to be strong in 2025, allowing us to realize a well cost reduction of 3% year-over-year;

our expectation that a 5-well pad in Elmworth, a 4-well pad in Gold Creek, and a 14-well pad in Pipestone will be brought on-stream during the second quarter;

our expectation that an 8-welll pad in Pipestone will be brought on-stream in the third quarter;

our expectations regarding the consistency in deliverability of inventory in the Elmworth and Gold Creek areas;

guidance with respect to first quarter 2025 production and production mix;

our expectation that growth in 2025 will be largely supported by the Pipestone area;

the expected timing of start-up of a third-party gas plant in the Pipestone area and the anticipated benefits thereof;

our 2025 full year production, full year production mix and capital expenditures guidance ranges;

our plan to continue to maintain an efficient drilling program by employing 2-drill-rig execution;

our expectation that our value-adding growth plateau level will be approximately 125,000 Boe/d;

our future focus, strategy, plans, opportunities and operations; and

other such similar statements.

Statements relating to “reserves” are also deemed to be forward-looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated and that the reserves can be profitably produced in the future.

The future acquisition of our common shares pursuant to a share buyback (including through our normal course issuer bid), if any, and the level thereof is uncertain. Any decision to acquire common shares pursuant to a share buyback will be subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors and may depend on a variety of factors, including, without limitation, the Company’s business performance, financial condition, financial requirements, growth plans, expected capital requirements and other conditions existing at such future time including, without limitation, contractual restrictions and satisfaction of the solvency tests imposed on the Company under applicable corporate law. There can be no assurance of the number of common shares that the Company will acquire pursuant to a share buyback, if any, in the future.

By their nature, forward-looking statements are based upon certain assumptions and are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond NuVista’s control, including the impact of general economic conditions, industry conditions, current and future commodity prices and inflation rates; that other than the tariffs that have been announced and implemented by the U.S. and Canadian governments on March 4, 2025, neither the U.S. nor Canada (i) increases the rate or scope of such tariffs, or imposes new tariffs, on the import of goods from one country to the other, and/or (ii) imposes any other form of tax, restriction or prohibition on the import or export of products from one country to the other, the impact of ongoing global events, including Middle East and European tensions, with respect to commodity prices, currency and interest rates, anticipated production rates, borrowing, operating and other costs and adjusted funds flow; the timing, allocation and amount of capital expenditures and the results therefrom; anticipated reserves and the imprecision of reserve estimates; the performance of existing wells; the success obtained in drilling new wells; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; access to infrastructure and markets; competition from other industry participants; availability of qualified personnel or services and drilling and related equipment; stock market volatility; effects of regulation by governmental agencies including changes in environmental regulations, tax laws and royalties; the ability to access sufficient capital from internal sources and bank and equity markets; that we will be able to execute our 2025 drilling plans as expected; our ability to carry out our 2025 production and capital guidance as expected; the risk that (i) the U.S. or Canadian governments increases the rate or scope of the currently implemented tariffs, or imposes new tariffs on the import of goods from on the import or export of products from one country to the other, and (ii) the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on other countries and responses thereto could have a material adverse effect on the Canadian, U.S. and global economies, and by extension the oil and gas industry; and including, without limitation, those risks considered under “Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form.

Readers are cautioned that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. NuVista’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements, or if any of them do so, what benefits NuVista will derive therefrom. NuVista has included the forward-looking statements in this press release in order to provide readers with a more complete perspective on NuVista’s future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. NuVista disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

This press release also contains financial outlook and future oriented financial information (together, “FOFI”) relating to NuVista including, without limitation, capital expenditures in 2025 and production which are based on, among other things, the various assumptions disclosed in this press release including under “Advisory regarding forward-looking information and statements” and including assumptions regarding benchmark pricing as it relates to the 2025 capital allocation framework. Notwithstanding the foregoing, the FOFI contained in this press release does not include the potential impact of tariff or trade-related regulation that have been announced by the U.S. and Canada, including the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canada effective March 4, 2025. Readers are cautioned that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and the impact of the tariffs on NuVista’s business operations and financial condition, while currently unknown, may be material and adverse and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on FOFI. NuVista’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these FOFI, or if any of them do so, what benefits NuVista will derive therefrom. NuVista has included the FOFI in order to provide readers with a more complete perspective on NuVista’s future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

These forward-looking statements and FOFI are made as of the date of this press release and NuVista disclaims any intent or obligation to update any forward-looking statements and FOFI, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, other than as required by applicable securities law.

Non-GAAP and other financial measures

This press release uses various specified financial measures (as such terms are defined in National Instrument 52-112 – Non-GAAP Disclosure and Other Financial Measures Disclosure (“NI 51-112”)) including “non-GAAP financial measures”, “non-GAAP ratios”, “capital management measures” and “supplementary financial measures” (as such terms are defined in NI 51-112), which are described in further detail below. Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP measures provides useful information to investors and shareholders as the measures provide increased transparency and the ability to better analyze performance against prior periods on a comparable basis.

⁽¹⁾ Non-GAAP financial measures

NI 52-112 defines a non-GAAP financial measure as a financial measure that: (i) depicts the historical or expected future financial performance, financial position or cash flow of an entity; (ii) with respect to its composition, excludes an amount that is included in, or includes an amount that is excluded from, the composition of the most directly comparable financial measure disclosed in the primary financial statements of the entity; (iii) is not disclosed in the financial statements of the entity; and (iv) is not a ratio, fraction, percentage or similar representation.

These non-GAAP financial measures are not standardized financial measures under IFRS Accounting Standards and might not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Investors are cautioned that these measures should not be construed as alternatives to or more meaningful than the most directly comparable GAAP measures as indicators of NuVista’s performance. Set forth below are descriptions of the non-GAAP financial measures used in this press release.

Free adjusted funds flow

Free adjusted funds flow is adjusted funds flow less net capital expenditures, power generation expenditures, and asset retirement expenditures. Each of the components of free adjusted funds flow are non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to disclosures under the headings “Capital management measures” and “Capital expenditures” for a description of each component of free adjusted funds flow. Management uses free adjusted funds flow as a measure of the efficiency and liquidity of its business, measuring its funds available for additional capital allocation to manage debt levels and return capital to shareholders through its NCIB program and/or dividend payments. By removing the impact of current period net capital and asset retirement expenditures, management believes this measure provides an indication of the funds NuVista has available for future capital allocation decisions.

The following table sets out our free adjusted funds flow compared to the most directly comparable GAAP measure of cash provided by operating activities less cash used in investing activities for the applicable periods:

	Three months ended December 31				Year ended December 31
($ thousands)	2024		2023		2024		2023
Cash provided by operating activities	135,831		211,761		600,253		721,342
Cash used in investing activities	(71,090	)	(132,646	)	(499,579	)	(531,586	)
Excess (deficit) cash provided by operating activities over cash used in investing activities	64,741		79,115		100,674		189,756

Adjusted funds flow	137,059		201,987		552,196		756,943
Net capital expenditures	(71,090	)	(113,258	)	(498,876	)	(518,294	)
Power generation expenditures	—		(16,904	)	(1,680	)	(16,904	)
Asset retirement expenditures	(3,551	)	(1,208	)	(12,029	)	(11,195	)
Free adjusted funds flow	62,418		70,617		39,611		210,550

Capital expenditures

Capital expenditures are equal to cash used in investing activities, excluding changes in non-cash working capital, other asset expenditures, power generation expenditures, proceeds on property dispositions and costs of acquisitions. NuVista considers capital expenditures to represent its organic capital program and a useful measure of cash flow used for capital reinvestment.

The following table provides a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measure of capital expenditures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure of cash used in investing activities for the applicable periods:

	Three months ended December 31				Year ended December 31
($ thousands)	2024		2023		2024		2023
Cash used in investing activities	(71,090	)	(132,646	)	(499,579	)	(531,586	)
Changes in non-cash working capital	—		2,484		(977	)	(13,112	)
Other asset expenditures	—		—		—		9,500
Power generation expenditures	—		16,904		1,680		16,904
Property acquisition	—		44,000		—		44,000
Proceeds on property disposition	—		—		—		(26,000	)
Capital expenditures	(71,090	)	(69,258	)	(498,876	)	(500,294	)

Net capital expenditures

Net capital expenditures are equal to cash used in investing activities, excluding changes in non-cash working capital, other asset expenditures, and power generation expenditures. The Company includes funds used for property acquisitions or proceeds from property dispositions within net capital expenditures as these transactions are part of its development plans. NuVista considers net capital expenditures to represent its organic capital program inclusive of capital spending for acquisition and disposition proposes and a useful measure of cash flow used for capital reinvestment.

The following table provides a reconciliation between the non-GAAP measure of net capital expenditures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure of cash used in investing activities for the applicable periods:

	Three months ended December 31				Year ended December 31
($ thousands)	2024		2023		2024		2023
Cash used in investing activities	(71,090	)	(132,646	)	(499,579	)	(531,586	)
Changes in non-cash working capital	—		2,484		(977	)	(13,112	)
Other asset expenditures	—		—		—		9,500
Power generation expenditures	—		16,904		1,680		16,904
Net capital expenditures	(71,090	)	(113,258	)	(498,876	)	(518,294	)

The following table provides a breakdown of capital expenditures, net capital expenditures and power generation expenditures by category for the applicable periods:

	Three months ended December 31				Year ended December 31
($ thousands, except % amounts)	2024	% of total	2023	% of total	2024	% of total	2023		% of total
Land and retention costs	—	—	15	—	6,968	1	7,507		2
Geological and geophysical	38	—	249	—	1,164	—	691		—
Drilling and completion	43,915	62	51,413	74	353,583	72	392,663		78
Facilities and equipment	25,508	36	16,193	24	130,628	26	93,252		19
Corporate and other	1,629	2	1,388	2	6,533	1	6,181		1
Capital expenditures	71,090		69,258		498,876		500,294
Property acquisitions	—		44,000		—		44,000
Proceeds on property disposition	—		—		—		(26,000	)
Net capital expenditures	71,090		113,258		498,876		518,294
Power generation expenditures	—		16,904		1,680		16,904

Net operating expense

NuVista considers that any incremental gross costs incurred to process third party volumes at its facilities are offset by the applicable fees charged to such third parties. However, under IFRS Accounting Standards, NuVista is required to reflect operating costs and processing fee income separately on its statements of earnings. Management believes that net operating expense, calculated as gross operating expense less processing income and other recoveries, is a meaningful measure for investors to understand the net impact of NuVista’s operating activities.

The following table sets out net operating expense compared to the most directly comparable GAAP measure of operating expenses for the applicable periods:

	Three months ended December 31				Year ended December 31
($ thousands)	2024		2023		2024		2023
Operating expense	88,891		85,207		354,253		324,196
Other income ⁽¹⁾	(1,646	)	(1,038	)	(8,605	)	(3,058	)
Net operating expense	87,245		84,169		345,648		321,138

⁽¹⁾	Processing income and other recoveries, included within Other Income as presented in the table below:

	Three months ended December 31		Year ended December 31
($ thousands)	2024	2023	2024	2023
Other income	57	—	3,235	—
Processing income and other recoveries	1,646	1,038	8,605	3,058
Other Income	1,703	1,038	11,840	3,058

(2) Non-GAAP ratios

NI 52-112 defines a non-GAAP ratio as a financial measure that: (i) is in the form of a ratio, fraction, percentage or similar representation; (ii) has a non-GAAP financial measure as one or more of its components; and (iii) is not disclosed in the financial statements of the entity. Set forth below is a description of the non-GAAP ratios used in this MD&A.

These non-GAAP ratios are not standardized financial measures under IFRS Accounting Standards and might not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Investors are cautioned that these ratios should not be construed as alternatives to or more meaningful than the most directly comparable IFRS Accounting Standards measures as indicators of NuVista’s performance.

Per Boe disclosures for petroleum and natural gas revenues, realized gains/losses on financial derivatives, royalties, transportation expense, G&A expense, financing costs, and DD&A expense are non-GAAP ratios that are calculated by dividing each of these respective GAAP measures by NuVista’s total production volumes for the period.

Non-GAAP ratios presented on a “per Boe” basis may also be considered to be supplementary financial measures (as such term is defined in NI 51-112).

Operating netback and corporate netback (“netbacks”), per BoeNuVista calculated netbacks per Boe by dividing the netbacks by total production volumes sold in the period. Each of operating netback and corporate netback are non-GAAP financial measures. Operating netback is calculated as petroleum and natural gas revenues, realized financial derivative gains/losses and other income, less royalties, transportation expense and net operating expense. Corporate netback is operating netback less general and administrative expense, cash share-based compensation expense (recovery), financing costs excluding accretion expense, and current income tax expense (recovery).
Management believes both operating and corporate netbacks are key industry benchmarks and measures of operating performance for NuVista that assists management and investors in assessing NuVista’s profitability, and are commonly used by other petroleum and natural gas producers. The measurement on a Boe basis assists management and investors with evaluating NuVista’s operating performance on a comparable basis.

Net operating expense, per BoeNuVista calculated net operating expense per Boe by dividing net operating expense by NuVista’s production volumes for the period.
Management believes that net operating expense, calculated as gross operating expense less processing income and other recoveries, which are included in NuVista’s statements of earnings, is a meaningful measure for investors to understand the net impact of the Company’s operating activities. The measurement on a Boe basis assists management and investors with evaluating NuVista’s operating performance on a comparable basis.

Reference has been also been made to certain terms that do not have standardized meanings or standard calculations and therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other entities. These terms are used by NuVista’s management to measure the success of replacing reserves and to compare operating performance to previous periods on a comparable basis.

F&D costsNuVista calculated F&D costs as the sum of development costs plus the change in future development costs (“FDC”) for the period when appropriate, divided by the change in reserves within the applicable reserves category, excluding those reserves acquired or disposed.
NuVista calculated TP+PA 3-year average F&D costs as the sum of development costs plus the sum of the change in FDC over the last three completed financial years, divided by the sum of the change in the total proved and probable reserves over the last three completed financial years.

FD&A costsNuVista calculated FD&A costs are calculated as the sum of development costs plus acquisition costs net of disposition proceeds plus the change in FDC for the period when appropriate, divided by the change in reserves within the applicable reserves category, inclusive of changes due to acquisitions and dispositions.

Recycle RatioNuVista calculates recycle ratio as the operating netback divided by F&D costs for the applicable period.

(3) Capital management measures

NI 52-112 defines a capital management measure as a financial measure that: (i) is intended to enable an individual to evaluate an entity’s objectives, policies and processes for managing the entity’s capital; (ii) is not a component of a line item disclosed in the primary financial statements of the entity; (iii) is disclosed in the notes to the financial statements of the entity; and (iv) is not disclosed in the primary financial statements of the entity.

NuVista has defined net debt, adjusted funds flow, and net debt to annualized fourth quarter adjusted funds flow ratio as capital management measures used by the Company in this press release.

Adjusted funds flow

NuVista considers adjusted funds flow to be a key measure that provides a more complete understanding of the NuVista considers adjusted funds flow to be a key measure that provides a more comprehensive view of the company’s ability to generate cash flow necessary for financing capital expenditures, meeting asset retirement obligations, and fulfilling its financial commitments. Adjusted funds flow is calculated by adjusting cash flow from operating activities to exclude changes in non-cash working capital and asset retirement expenditures. Management believes these elements are subject to timing variations in collection, payment, and occurrence. By excluding them, management is able to provide a more meaningful performance measure of NuVista’s ongoing operations. Specifically, expenditures on asset retirement obligations may fluctuate depending on the company’s capital programs and the maturity of its operating areas, while environmental remediation recovery is tied to an infrequent incident that management does not expect to recur regularly. The settlement of asset retirement obligations is managed through NuVista’s capital budgeting process, which incorporates the available adjusted funds flow.

A reconciliation of adjusted funds flow is presented in the following table:

	2024			2023
Cash provided by operating activities	$	600,253		$	721,342
Asset retirement expenditures		12,029			11,195
Change in non-cash working capital		(60,086	)		24,406
Adjusted funds flow	$	552,196		$	756,943

Net debt is used by management to provide a more comprehensive understanding of NuVista’s capital structure and to assess the company’s liquidity. NuVista calculates net debt by considering accounts receivable, prepaid expenses, accounts payable and accrued liabilities, long-term debt (the Credit Facility), senior unsecured notes, and other liabilities. Management uses total market capitalization and the ratio of net debt to annualized adjusted funds flow for the current quarter to analyze balance sheet strength and liquidity.

The following is a summary of total market capitalization, net debt, annualized current quarter adjusted funds flow, and net debt to annualized current quarter adjusted funds flow:

	2024			2023
Basic common shares outstanding (thousands of shares)		203,701			207,584
Share price	$	13.82		$	11.04
Total market capitalization	$	2,815,148		$	2,291,727
Accounts receivable and other		(132,538	)		(139,451	)
Prepaid expenses		(45,584	)		(45,241	)
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities		206,862			157,711
Current portion of other liabilities		18,451			14,082
Long-term debt		5,353			16,897
Senior unsecured notes		163,258			162,195
Other liabilities		16,701			17,358
Net debt	$	232,503		$	183,551
Annualized current quarter adjusted funds flow	$	548,236		$	807,948
Net debt to annualized current quarter adjusted funds flow		0.4			0.2
Adjusted funds flow	$	552,196		$	756,943
Net debt to adjusted funds flow		0.4			0.2

(4) Supplementary financial measures

This press release may contain certain supplementary financial measures. NI 52-112 defines a supplementary financial measure as a financial measure that: (i) is intended to be disclosed on a periodic basis to depict the historical or expected future financial performance, financial position or cash flow of an entity; (ii) is not disclosed in the financial statements of the entity; (iii) is not a non-GAAP financial measure; and (iv) is not a non-GAAP ratio.

NuVista calculates: (i) “adjusted funds flow per share” by dividing adjusted funds flow for a period by the number of weighted average common shares of NuVista for the specified period; (ii) “operating netback per share” by dividing operating netback for a period by the number of weighted average common shares of NuVista for the specified period; (iii) “corporate netback per share” by dividing operating netback for a period by the number of weighted average common shares of NuVista for the specified period; (iv) “net debt to adjusted funds flow” by dividing the net debt at the end of a period by the adjusted funds flow for such period; and (v) “net present value per share” is the net present value (discounted at 10%) in the reserve category divided by the basic common shares outstanding at the end of the period.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Mike J. Lawford	Ivan J. Condic
President and CEO	VP, Finance and CFO
(403) 538-1936	(403) 538-1945

The MIL Network –

March 6, 2025

MIL-OSI Economics: Euro area bank interest rate statistics: January 2025
Source: European Central Bank

5 March 2025

Bank interest rates for corporations

Chart 1

Bank interest rates on new loans to, and deposits from, euro area corporations

(percentages per annum)

Data for cost of borrowing and deposit interest rates for corporations (Chart 1)

The composite cost-of-borrowing indicator, which combines interest rates on all loans to corporations, decreased in January 2025. The interest rate on new loans of over €1 million with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to three months decreased by 13 basis points to 4.18%. The rate on new loans of the same size with an initial rate fixation period of over three months and up to one year fell by 18 basis points to 3.88%, driven by both the interest rate and the weight effects. The interest rate on new loans of over €1 million with an initial rate fixation period of over ten years increased by 9 basis points to 3.51%. In the case of new loans of up to €250,000 with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to three months, the average rate charged fell by 30 basis points to 4.33%.
As regards new deposit agreements, the interest rate on deposits from corporations with an agreed maturity of up to one year fell by 13 basis points to 2.67% in January 2025. The interest rate on overnight deposits from corporations stayed almost constant at 0.76%.
The interest rate on new loans to sole proprietors and unincorporated partnerships with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to one year decreased by 7 basis points to 4.56%.

Table 1

Bank interest rates for corporations

i.r.f. = initial rate fixation
* For this instrument category, the concept of new business is extended to the whole outstanding amounts and therefore the business volumes are not comparable with those of the other categories. Outstanding amounts data are derived from the ECB’s monetary financial institutions balance sheet statistics.

Data for bank interest rates for corporations (Table 1)

Bank interest rates for households

Chart 2

Bank interest rates on new loans to, and deposits from, euro area households

Data for cost of borrowing and deposit interest rate for households (Chart 2)

The composite cost-of-borrowing indicator, which combines interest rates on all loans to households for house purchase, decreased in January 2025. The interest rate on loans for house purchase with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to one year decreased by 10 basis points to 4.06%. The rate on housing loans with an initial rate fixation period of over one and up to five years fell by 8 basis points to 3.49%. The interest rate on loans for house purchase with an initial rate fixation period of over five and up to ten years decreased by 48 basis points to 2.88%. The rate on housing loans with an initial rate fixation period of over ten years fell by 12 basis points to 2.97%, driven by both the interest rate and the weight effects. In the same period the interest rate on new loans to households for consumption increased by 23 basis points to 7.64%.
As regards new deposits from households, the interest rate on deposits with an agreed maturity of up to one year decreased by 12 basis points to 2.33%. The rate on deposits redeemable at three months’ notice stayed almost constant at 1.72%. The interest rate on overnight deposits from households remained broadly unchanged at 0.34%.

Table 2

Bank interest rates for households

i.r.f. = initial rate fixation
* For this instrument category, the concept of new business is extended to the whole outstanding amounts and therefore the business volumes are not comparable with those of the other categories; deposits placed by households and corporations are allocated to the household sector. Outstanding amounts data are derived from the ECB’s monetary financial institutions balance sheet statistics.
** For this instrument category, the concept of new business is extended to the whole outstanding amounts and therefore the business volumes are not comparable with those of the other categories. Outstanding amounts data are derived from the ECB’s monetary financial institutions balance sheet statistics.

Data for bank interest rates for households (Table 2)

Further information

The data in Tables 1 and 2 can be visualised for individual euro area countries on the bank interest rate statistics dashboard. Additionally, tables containing further breakdowns of bank interest rate statistics, including the composite cost-of-borrowing indicators for all euro area countries, are available from the ECB Data Portal. The full set of bank interest rate statistics for both the euro area and individual countries can be downloaded from ECB Data Portal. More information, including the release calendar, is available under “Bank interest rates” in the statistics section of the ECB’s website.

For media queries, please contact Nicos Keranis, tel.: +49 69 1344 7806

Notes:
- In this press release “corporations” refers to non-financial corporations (sector S.11 in the European System of Accounts 2010, or ESA 2010), “households” refers to households and non-profit institutions serving households (ESA 2010 sectors S.14 and S.15) and “banks” refers to monetary financial institutions except central banks and money market funds (ESA 2010 sector S.122).
- The composite cost-of-borrowing indicators are described in the article entitled “Assessing the retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area at times of financial fragmentation” in the August 2013 issue of the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (see Box 1). For these indicators, a weighting scheme based on the 24-month moving averages of new business volumes has been applied, in order to filter out excessive monthly volatility. For this reason the developments in the composite cost of borrowing indicators in both tables cannot be explained by the month-on-month changes in the displayed subcomponents. Furthermore, the table on bank interest rates for corporations presents a subset of the series used in the calculation of the cost of borrowing indicator.
- Interest rates on new business are weighted by the size of the individual agreements. This is done both by the reporting agents and when the national and euro area averages are computed. Thus changes in average euro area interest rates for new business reflect, in addition to changes in interest rates, changes in the weights of individual countries’ new business for the instrument categories concerned. The “interest rate effect” and the “weight effect” presented in this press release are derived from the Bennet index, which allows month-on-month developments in euro area aggregate rates resulting from changes in individual country rates (the “interest rate effect”) to be disentangled from those caused by changes in the weights of individual countries’ contributions (the “weight effect”). Owing to rounding, the combined “interest rate effect” and the “weight effect” may not add up to the month-on-month developments in euro area aggregate rates.
- In addition to monthly euro area bank interest rate statistics for January 2025, this press release incorporates revisions to data for previous periods. Hyperlinks in the main body of the press release lead to data that may change with subsequent releases as a result of revisions. Unless otherwise indicated, these euro area statistics cover the EU Member States that had adopted the euro at the time to which the data relate.
- As of reference period December 2014, the sector classification applied to bank interest rates statistics is based on the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010). In accordance with the ESA 2010 classification and as opposed to ESA 95, the non-financial corporations sector (S.11) now excludes holding companies not engaged in management and similar captive financial institutions.
MIL OSI Economics –
March 6, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: Australians generate mountains of waste, and we need more help to recycle and resuse it

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melita Jazbec, Research Director at the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

Boy Anthony/Shutterstock

Australians largely support transforming the economy to increase recycling, repurpose products and reduce waste, according to a new report from the Productivity Commission, but they are being impeded by inconsistent regulations.

The interim report of the commission’s inquiry into Australia’s circular economy, released Wednesday night, also finds consumers need more information about the durability and repairability of products.

The report says that despite increased awareness of the benefits of a circular economy, the transformation has been complex and progress has been slow.

What is a circular economy?

A circular economy is based on three principles.

The first is designing and making goods without waste and pollution. This includes using renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions.

The second is keeping products and materials in use for as long as possible. This can be achieved by maintaining or repairing products to extend their life.

The third principle is regeneration. This means promoting activities with positive outcomes. This could include activities to deal with biodiversity loss, or social benefits through food relief and donations.

Some businesses are already using circular economy practices but compared to other developed countries, Australia is well behind. The recent CSIRO study found only 3.7% of the Australian economy is circular, half of the world’s average of 7.2%.

In December last year the Federal government released the National Circular Economy Framework providing guidance how to increase circularity.

Coinciding with this, the Productivity Commission evaluated circular economy opportunities in six priority sectors – built environment, food and agriculture, textiles and clothing, vehicles, mining and electronics.

Priority areas

The priority areas were selected based on the impact their materials has on the environment and the economy.

For example, the construction sector uses large quantities of materials which are expensive to recycle. While the increased use of electric vehicles is a bonus for the environment, the lithium-ion batteries they use pose a fire risk if incorrectly managed.

How much impact a particular area has on Australia, was also taken into account.

For example, Australians are the largest consumers of textiles in the world per capita. But most of these are imported, limiting our influence on how they are made.

Also, the impact and effectiveness of policies and regulations was also considered. Stakeholders across government and community sectors provided detailed submissions that informed the commission’s assessment.

Getting consumers, government and business onboard

The Productivity Commission noted material consumption and waste generation has not changed since 2010. This is because consumers are not repairing and reusing appliances or recycling which is important to a circular economy.

Australia generates some of the highest amounts of waste per capita in the world, including food waste, plastic waste, e-waste and textile waste.

While the report recommends how food waste should be managed, consumers need to change their behaviour to reduce the waste they generate.

To do this, however, consumers need information about making informed purchasing decisions. For e-waste, they need easy access to repair services to extend the life of their products rather than buying new.

The report repeats earlier recommendations about repairs and reuse from the Productivity Commission’s 2021 Right to Repair inquiry.

That inquiry recommended the government develop a product labelling scheme giving consumers information about how durable household appliances are and whether they can be repaired.

We believe implementing these recommendations would bring Australia in line with global best practice reflected in the European Eco-design Sustainable Product regulations.

Impeded by regulations

This report highlights the importance of consistent policies and regulations. These currently vary across sectors and jurisdictions.

Standards enabling the use of recycled materials in construction, consistent rules on the disposal of lithium-ion batteries and consistent kerbside recycling guidelines were all needed.

The Circular Economy Ministerial Advisory Group recommended in their final report in December new legislation, a governance model and investment in innovation to help Australia move to a circular economy.

Help for business

When designed well, circular business models have the potential to reduce waste materials and carbon emissions.

Comparing the circular and linear economies.
Productivity Commission, CC BY-SA

However, changing industry and consumer practices represents a big change. As well as inconsistent regulations slowing the transformation, making processes more innovative and experimenting with new technologies can be costly.

The Productivity Commission report says government can help reduce barriers to implementation of circular business models given business has a pivotal role in
driving this transition.

It also supports product stewardship, an approach where producers, importers and brands are responsible and liable for the impact their products have on the environment and on human health across the product life cycle.

Regulations for product stewardship was identified in the report as important, particularly in textiles and clothing, vehicles, EV batteries, solar panels and consumer electronics.

Towards net zero

Several international studies have reported that a circular economy will be needed to achieve net zero targets.

In Australia, the industry sector including mining, manufacturing and construction is responsible for around 34% of total emissions. Using materials more efficiently will help reduce them.

Agriculture, despite its small contribution to the GDP (2.4%), alone contributes 18% to greenhouse gas emissions.

As the report notes, most of these emissions (80%) come from livestock and use of synthetic fertilisers (15%). But only food waste is identified as one of the priority areas.

It should be noted though that food waste only accounts for 3% of emissions. So reducing emissions from agriculture, switching to renewable fertilisers and changing livestock diets should also be a priority.

The Productivity Commission will send its final report to government by August this year.

Melita Jazbec receives research funding from various government and non-government sources. Melita Jazbec is currently conducting research projects on circular economy funded by Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, and by AgriFutures.

Melita Jazbec made a submission to the Productivity Commission inquiry which also interviewed her.

Monique Retamal receives research funding from federal DCCEEW, Circular Australia and state government environment departments. Monique was interviewed by the Productivity Commission inquiry.

Nick Florin receives funding from government and non-government organisations, including the Federal department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment, and Water, and the Australian Packaging Covenant Organisation. Nick is also a Director of the Product Stewardship Centre of Excellence.

Stuart White receives research funding from various government and non-government sources.

– ref. Australians generate mountains of waste, and we need more help to recycle and resuse it – https://theconversation.com/australians-generate-mountains-of-waste-and-we-need-more-help-to-recycle-and-resuse-it-251354

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

March 6, 2025
MIL-OSI Europe: Euro area bank interest rate statistics: January 2025
Source: European Central Bank

5 March 2025

Bank interest rates for corporations

Chart 1

Bank interest rates on new loans to, and deposits from, euro area corporations

(percentages per annum)

Data for cost of borrowing and deposit interest rates for corporations (Chart 1)

The composite cost-of-borrowing indicator, which combines interest rates on all loans to corporations, decreased in January 2025. The interest rate on new loans of over €1 million with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to three months decreased by 13 basis points to 4.18%. The rate on new loans of the same size with an initial rate fixation period of over three months and up to one year fell by 18 basis points to 3.88%, driven by both the interest rate and the weight effects. The interest rate on new loans of over €1 million with an initial rate fixation period of over ten years increased by 9 basis points to 3.51%. In the case of new loans of up to €250,000 with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to three months, the average rate charged fell by 30 basis points to 4.33%.
As regards new deposit agreements, the interest rate on deposits from corporations with an agreed maturity of up to one year fell by 13 basis points to 2.67% in January 2025. The interest rate on overnight deposits from corporations stayed almost constant at 0.76%.
The interest rate on new loans to sole proprietors and unincorporated partnerships with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to one year decreased by 7 basis points to 4.56%.

Table 1

Bank interest rates for corporations

i.r.f. = initial rate fixation
* For this instrument category, the concept of new business is extended to the whole outstanding amounts and therefore the business volumes are not comparable with those of the other categories. Outstanding amounts data are derived from the ECB’s monetary financial institutions balance sheet statistics.

Data for bank interest rates for corporations (Table 1)

Bank interest rates for households

Chart 2

Bank interest rates on new loans to, and deposits from, euro area households

Data for cost of borrowing and deposit interest rate for households (Chart 2)

The composite cost-of-borrowing indicator, which combines interest rates on all loans to households for house purchase, decreased in January 2025. The interest rate on loans for house purchase with a floating rate and an initial rate fixation period of up to one year decreased by 10 basis points to 4.06%. The rate on housing loans with an initial rate fixation period of over one and up to five years fell by 8 basis points to 3.49%. The interest rate on loans for house purchase with an initial rate fixation period of over five and up to ten years decreased by 48 basis points to 2.88%. The rate on housing loans with an initial rate fixation period of over ten years fell by 12 basis points to 2.97%, driven by both the interest rate and the weight effects. In the same period the interest rate on new loans to households for consumption increased by 23 basis points to 7.64%.
As regards new deposits from households, the interest rate on deposits with an agreed maturity of up to one year decreased by 12 basis points to 2.33%. The rate on deposits redeemable at three months’ notice stayed almost constant at 1.72%. The interest rate on overnight deposits from households remained broadly unchanged at 0.34%.

Table 2

Bank interest rates for households

i.r.f. = initial rate fixation
* For this instrument category, the concept of new business is extended to the whole outstanding amounts and therefore the business volumes are not comparable with those of the other categories; deposits placed by households and corporations are allocated to the household sector. Outstanding amounts data are derived from the ECB’s monetary financial institutions balance sheet statistics.
** For this instrument category, the concept of new business is extended to the whole outstanding amounts and therefore the business volumes are not comparable with those of the other categories. Outstanding amounts data are derived from the ECB’s monetary financial institutions balance sheet statistics.

Data for bank interest rates for households (Table 2)

Further information

The data in Tables 1 and 2 can be visualised for individual euro area countries on the bank interest rate statistics dashboard. Additionally, tables containing further breakdowns of bank interest rate statistics, including the composite cost-of-borrowing indicators for all euro area countries, are available from the ECB Data Portal. The full set of bank interest rate statistics for both the euro area and individual countries can be downloaded from ECB Data Portal. More information, including the release calendar, is available under “Bank interest rates” in the statistics section of the ECB’s website.

For media queries, please contact Nicos Keranis, tel.: +49 69 1344 7806

Notes:
- In this press release “corporations” refers to non-financial corporations (sector S.11 in the European System of Accounts 2010, or ESA 2010), “households” refers to households and non-profit institutions serving households (ESA 2010 sectors S.14 and S.15) and “banks” refers to monetary financial institutions except central banks and money market funds (ESA 2010 sector S.122).
- The composite cost-of-borrowing indicators are described in the article entitled “Assessing the retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area at times of financial fragmentation” in the August 2013 issue of the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin (see Box 1). For these indicators, a weighting scheme based on the 24-month moving averages of new business volumes has been applied, in order to filter out excessive monthly volatility. For this reason the developments in the composite cost of borrowing indicators in both tables cannot be explained by the month-on-month changes in the displayed subcomponents. Furthermore, the table on bank interest rates for corporations presents a subset of the series used in the calculation of the cost of borrowing indicator.
- Interest rates on new business are weighted by the size of the individual agreements. This is done both by the reporting agents and when the national and euro area averages are computed. Thus changes in average euro area interest rates for new business reflect, in addition to changes in interest rates, changes in the weights of individual countries’ new business for the instrument categories concerned. The “interest rate effect” and the “weight effect” presented in this press release are derived from the Bennet index, which allows month-on-month developments in euro area aggregate rates resulting from changes in individual country rates (the “interest rate effect”) to be disentangled from those caused by changes in the weights of individual countries’ contributions (the “weight effect”). Owing to rounding, the combined “interest rate effect” and the “weight effect” may not add up to the month-on-month developments in euro area aggregate rates.
- In addition to monthly euro area bank interest rate statistics for January 2025, this press release incorporates revisions to data for previous periods. Hyperlinks in the main body of the press release lead to data that may change with subsequent releases as a result of revisions. Unless otherwise indicated, these euro area statistics cover the EU Member States that had adopted the euro at the time to which the data relate.
- As of reference period December 2014, the sector classification applied to bank interest rates statistics is based on the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010). In accordance with the ESA 2010 classification and as opposed to ESA 95, the non-financial corporations sector (S.11) now excludes holding companies not engaged in management and similar captive financial institutions.
MIL OSI Europe News –
March 6, 2025

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