The visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House has not gone to plan – at least not to his plan. There were [extraordinary scenes] as a press conference between Zelensky and Trump descended into acrimony, with the US president loudly berating his opposite number, who he accused of “gambling with world war three”.
“You either make a deal or we’re out,” Trump told Zelensky. His vice-president, J.D.Vance, also got in on the act, accusing the Ukrainian president of “litigating in front of the American media”, and saying his approach was “disrespectful”. At one point he asked Zelensky: “Have you said thank you even once?”
Reporters present described the atmosphere as heated with voices raised by both Trump and Vance. The New York Times said the scene was “one of the most dramatic moments ever to play out in public in the Oval Office and underscored the radical break between the United States and Ukraine since Mr Trump took office”.
Underlying the angry exchanges were differences between the Trump administration and the Ukrainian government over the so-called “minerals deal” that Zelensky was scheduled to sign. But any lack of Ukrainian enthusiasm for the deal is understandable.
In its present form, it looks more like a memorandum of understanding that leaves several vital issues to be resolved later. The deal on offer is the creation of will be called a “reconstruction investment fund”, to be jointly owned and managed by the US and Ukraine.
Into the proposed fund will go 50% of the revenue from the exploitation of “all relevant Ukrainian government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian government)” and “other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure)”.
This means that private infrastructure – much of it owned by Ukraine’s wealthy oligarchs – is likely to become part of the deal. This has the potential of further increasing friction between Zelensky and some very powerful Ukrainians.
Meanwhile, US contributions are less clearly defined. The preamble to the agreement makes it clear that Ukraine already owes the US. The very first paragraph notes that “the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022”.
Western and Ukrainian analysts have also pointed out that there may be fewer and less accessible mineral and rare earth deposits in Ukraine than are currently assumed. The working estimates have been based mostly on Soviet-era data.
Since the current draft leaves details on ownership, governance and operations to be determined in a future fund agreement, Trump’s very big deal is at best the first step. Future rounds of negotiations are to be expected.
Statement of intent
From a Ukrainian perspective, this is more of a strength than a weakness. It leaves Kyiv with an opportunity to achieve more satisfactory terms in future rounds of negotiation. Even if any improvements will only be marginal, it keeps the US locked into a process that is, overall, beneficial for Ukraine.
Take the example of security guarantees. The draft agreement offers Ukraine nothing anywhere near Nato membership. But it notes that the US “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace”, adding that: “Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments.”
The significance of this should not be overstated. At its bare minimum, it is an expression of intent by the US that falls short of security guarantees but still gives the US a stake in the survival of Ukraine as an independent state.
But it is an important signal both in terms of what it does and does not do – a signal to Russia, Europe and Ukraine.
Trump does not envisage that the US will give Ukraine security guarantees “beyond very much”. He seems to think that these guarantees can be provided by European troops (the Kremlin has already cast doubts on this idea).
But this does not mean the idea is completely off the table. On the contrary, because the US commitment is so vague, it gives Trump leverage in every direction.
He can use it as a carrot and a stick against Ukraine to get more favourable terms for US returns from the reconstruction investment fund. He can use it to push Europe towards more decisive action to ramp up defence spending by making any US protection for European peacekeepers contingent on more equitable burden-sharing in Nato.
And he can signal to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that the US is serious about making a deal stick – and that higher American economic stakes in Ukraine and corporate presence on the ground would mean US-backed consequences if the Kremlin reneges on a future peace agreement and restarts hostilities.
That these calculations will ultimately lead to the “free, sovereign and secure Ukraine” that the agreement envisages is not a given.
For now, however, despite all the shortcomings and vagueness of the deal on key issues –– and the very public argument between the parties – it still looks like it serves all sides’ interests in moving forward in this direction.
This article has been updated with details of the meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump.
Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.
Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
WASHINGTON, DC – Today, U.S. Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is encouraging Nevadans to create and submit homemade ornaments to decorate the 2025 U.S. Capitol Christmas Tree, which will come from Nevada for the first time ever. The tree will be harvested from the Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest, decorated by Nevadans, and transported to Washington, DC for the holiday season. The theme for the tree is “Starry Skies to Neon Lights—Spirit of the Silver State,” and the Forest Service is calling on Nevadans to craft handmade ornaments to decorate it.
“As a Nevadan, I couldn’t be more excited that this year’s U.S. Capitol Christmas tree will come from our own beautiful Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest,” said Senator Rosen. “This tree will represent Nevada in our nation’s capital, and I encourage Nevadans to submit ornaments that symbolize the true spirit of the Silver State.”
For more information about how to submit an ornament, visit the U.S. Capitol Christmas Tree website. Deadline to submit an ornament is September 15, 2025.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff level agreement (SLA) on the Seventh Review of the 4-year, $15.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board and consistent with its balance-of-payments needs, Ukraine would be expected to draw about US$0.4 billion (SDR 0.3 billion), bringing total disbursements under the program to US$10.1 billion.
Program performance remains strong. All end-December quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) have been met and understandings were reached on a set of policies and reforms to sustain macroeconomic stability. The structural reform agenda continues to make progress, with seven structural benchmarks met, another benchmark implemented with delay, and strong commitments to advance other key reforms.
The outlook remains exceptionally uncertain as the war continues to take a heavy toll on Ukraine’s people, economy, and infrastructure. Despite the challenging environment, the program remains on track on the back of critical external support.
Warsaw, Poland: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Gavin Gray held discussions with the Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv, Ukraine and Warsaw, Poland during February 20-28 on the Seventh Review of the country’s 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Upon the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Gray issued the following statement:
“IMF staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the Seventh Review of the EFF, subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, with Board consideration expected in coming weeks.
“Ukraine’s four-year EFF Arrangement with the IMF continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program in times of exceptionally high uncertainty. Program performance remains strong with all quantitative performance criteria for end-December met, and important progress on the structural agenda due for this review. Reflecting a revised profile of balance of payments needs in 2025, Ukraine has requested to rephase access under its EFF program, shifting IMF financing to future reviews while the overall size of the program remains unchanged.
“The economy has continued to show resilience despite the challenges arising from three years of war in Ukraine. Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.5 percent for 2024, but is expected to moderate to 2-3 percent in 2025, reflecting headwinds from labor constraints, damage to energy infrastructure, and the persistence of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Inflation has continued to rise, reaching 12.9 percent y/y in January, mainly due to rising food and labor costs. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised the policy rate by a cumulative 150 bps since December in response. Gross international reserves reached US$43 billion as of January 2025, reflecting continued large external official support. Risks remain exceptionally high given uncertainty on the war and the prospects for peace and recovery.
“The 2025 budget targets a deficit (excluding grants) of 19.6 percent of GDP and remains the anchor for fiscal policy this year. It incorporates the additional revenue derived from the increase in tobacco excise taxes and enactment of this tax policy change is a requirement for completion of the review. Financing the large fiscal deficit will require significant and timely external support, notably from the G7’s ERA initiative, to support macroeconomic stability. Responding to high budget risks will require preparedness with offsetting measures; in particular broad-based, durable, and efficient revenue measures and accelerated implementation of Ukraine’s National Revenue Strategy (NRS)
Restoring medium-term fiscal sustainability requires determined implementation of reforms to mobilize domestic revenues, tackle tax evasion and avoidance, and improve the investment climate. Tax policy reforms need also to be coupled with improvements in tax administration with continued reforms to the state customs service (SCS) and state tax service (STS). Restoring debt sustainability hinges on this revenue-based fiscal adjustment and continued implementation of the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy (where completing the treatment of the GDP warrants remains important). The upcoming 2026-2028 budget declaration that is to be submitted to Parliament in June will be an important opportunity to provide both the context and strategic objectives of the medium-term fiscal strategy.
“Given the risks from rising inflation, the recent increases in the policy rate by the NBU are appropriate. Further action would be warranted if inflation accelerates further or inflation expectations deteriorate. The exchange rate should increasingly act as a shock absorber. Maintaining adequate reserves is a priority, particularly in view of risks to the outlook.
“The independence, competence, and credibility of anti-corruption and judicial institutions should continue to be enhanced. Parliamentary adoption this week of the law establishing the High Administrative Court, a benchmark under the program, is a landmark step in this direction. Swift enactment of the law would pave the way for prompt establishment of the court.
“Effective public investment management (PIM) is critical for post-war recovery, reconstruction, and growth against a backdrop of limited fiscal space and tough demographic realities. To tackle these challenges, the government of Ukraine is implementing a comprehensive PIM framework that is in line with best international practices. A strategy-driven and transparent approach is essential to overcome absorption capacity constraints and allocate scarce resources efficiently.
“The financial sector remains stable, but continued vigilance is warranted given elevated risks. Developing financial markets infrastructure will be critical to support prompt reconstruction and recovery by facilitating much needed private investment, including attracting foreign capital. Comprehensive consultation and collaboration with financial market participants is essential to facilitate preparation of a prioritized reform agenda, which the NBU has begun in collaboration with other relevant stakeholders.
“The mission met with Finance Minister Marchenko, National Bank of Ukraine Governor Pyshnyy, other government ministers, public officials, and civil society. The mission thanks them and their technical staff for the excellent collaboration and constructive discussions.”
There were just under 150 incidents of illegal or unauthorised activity involving nuclear and other radioactive material reported last year, according to the international nuclear energy watchdog’s monitoring database tracking these incidents.
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New data released on Friday from the UN-backed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reveals that while the overall number remains consistent with previous years, the continued incidents of trafficking and radioactive contamination cases raises concerns over nuclear security.
Three of the reported cases were directly linked to trafficking or malicious intent, while in 21 incidents, authorities could not determine whether criminal activity was involved.
Most incidents did not involve organised crime, but experts warn that even a single case of nuclear material falling into the wrong hands could pose serious global risks.
Radioactive goods
A troubling trend in 2024 has been the rise in contaminated industrial materials, such as used pipes and metal parts that unknowingly entered supply chains.
“This indicates the challenge for some countries to prevent the unauthorised disposal of radioactive sources, and at the same time, it confirms the efficiency of the detection infrastructure,” said Elena Buglova, Director of the IAEA’s Division of Nuclear Security.
Danger on the move
The transportation of radioactive materials remains one of the most vulnerable areas of nuclear security. Over the past decade, 65 percent of all reported thefts have occurred while materials were in transit.
Nuclear and radioactive substances are regularly transported for use in medicine, industry and scientific research, making them a potential target for theft. With so many different handlers involved during shipping, security gaps persist.
Experts emphasise the need for stronger safety measures while goods are on the move to prevent radioactive material from being lost or stolen.
Enhanced international cooperation is also essential to ensure proper security along supply chains.
Calls for stronger security
The IAEA plays a key role in monitoring and preventing nuclear material from falling out of regulatory control.
In 2024, 32 of the 145 participating states submitted reports, reflecting a continued global effort to strengthen nuclear security.
“Incident reports submitted by participating countries to the ITDB [IAEA database] over the past 30 years have strengthened global efforts to combat illicit trafficking and other unauthorised activities involving nuclear and other radioactive material out of regulatory control,” Ms. Buglova said.
With nuclear threats constantly evolving, the IAEA urges all states to tighten their security measures – particularly in the transportation, industrial use and disposal of radioactive materials.
Headline: NCDHHS Issues Alert for Missing Radioactive Material in Triad Area
NCDHHS Issues Alert for Missing Radioactive Material in Triad Area stonizzo
KERNERSVILLE
The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services received a report that an Industrial Radiography Camera containing radioactive material was stolen in Kernersville, North Carolina. Because radioactive material can cause physical harm if handled, the department is advising caution and requesting anyone with information to call law enforcement immediately.
A SPEC-150 Industrial Radiography exposure device like the one pictured below, known as an “IR camera,” was taken from a pickup truck in the parking lot of the Sleep Inn motel on Heartland Drive during the night of Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025. The IR camera was discovered missing on Feb. 27, 2025.
These are industrial devices that contain radioactive material that can cause physical harm. If you find the device or know where it is, you should call local law enforcement or 911 immediately. Do not approach the device, do not attempt to open it and remain at least 30 feet away.
You can also call Travis Cartoski with the NCDHHS Radiation Protection Section at 919-621-4797 if you have information about the stolen device.
WASHINGTON — Dusan Dimic, 41, of Reston, Virginia., was sentenced today in U.S. District Court to 41 months in federal prison for his role in a drug trafficking operation that used Zipcars, rental cars, and privately owned vehicles to deliver cocaine to customers throughout the Northwest.
The sentence was announced by U.S. Attorney Edward R. Martin, Jr., DEA Special Agent in Charge Ibrar A. Mian of the Drug Enforcement Administration Washington Division, and Chief Pamela Smith of the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD).
Dimic pleaded guilty on November 12, 2024, to one count of conspiracy to distribute and possess with intent to distribute five kilograms or more of cocaine. In addition to the 41-month prison term, U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton ordered Dimic to serve three years of supervised release.
According to court documents, in August 2022, members of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) began an investigation into individuals operating a narcotics delivery service, operating primarily in Northwest Washington, D.C. using rental vehicles and rideshare services.
Undercover law enforcement agents conducted 14 controlled purchases of illegal narcotics from Dimic’s co-conspirator. Dimic served as either the driver for the co-conspirator or arranged for a driver to drive the co-conspirator to distribute narcotics. During the undercover controlled purchases, Dimic frequently sat in the driver’s seat, the co-conspirator always sat in the front passenger’s seat, and the undercover agent (as the customer) sat in the rear passenger’s seat. The drug transactions took place immediately next to Dimic while he remained in the driver’s seat.
Dimic typically conducted drug transactions on Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays from 5 p.m. until 9 p.m. Dimic typically began his route by driving to a supermarket on the 2200 block of I Street NW, to meet his co-conspirator. The two men then proceeded to pick up various individuals, meeting with them for a brief period to engage in narcotics sales.
Zipcar records show Dimic’s name listed on the account and Dimic’s credit card on file as the form of payment for the vehicles used during the conspiracy. On certain days, when Dimic was not the driver, he would provide transportation and drivers for his co-conspirator.
At approximately 5:24 p.m. on September 21, 2023, law enforcement arrested Dimic and his co-defendant. From Dimic, law enforcement recovered 90 grams of cocaine located on the front driver’s side floorboard, a small blue bag with Dimic’s identification cards, his cell phone, and $2,304.51 in cash. From the co-defendant, law enforcement recovered $4,454.74 in cash, a blue bookbag containing multiple eyeglass containers with 483 grams of cocaine, and a medicine bottle containing 90 grams of methamphetamine pills located on the front passenger floorboard.
During the course of the conspiracy, Dimic and his co-conspirators sold an average of 56 grams of cocaine per day from August 2022 to August 2023.
This case was investigated by the DEA and the MPD. It was prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorney Iris McCranie and Special Assistant U.S. Attorney Sarah Rasalam with valuable assistance from Special Assistant U.S. Attorneys Gary Crosby and Lauren Randall.
Tampa, Florida – Acting United States Attorney Sara C. Sweeney announces the return of an indictment charging Romario Whyte (28, Brooksville) with possession of a firearm by an alien illegally or unlawfully in the United States. If convicted, Whyte faces a maximum penalty of 15 years in federal prison.
According to court documents, Whyte accompanied an individual who was under investigation for straw purchasing of firearms to a gun store. After the individual purchased a firearm, Whyte and the individual drove to Whyte’s apartment. Whyte was observed by law enforcement making several trips from the car to his apartment carrying various bags. A search of the apartment revealed the same firearm that had been purchased at the gun store.
Whyte was determined to be a citizen of Jamaica and illegally or unlawfully in the United States at the time he was in possession of the firearm.
An indictment is merely a formal charge that a defendant has committed one or more violations of federal criminal law, and every defendant is presumed innocent unless, and until, proven guilty.
This case was investigated by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the Hernando County Sheriff’s Office. It will be prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Brooke M. Padgett.
Jacksonville, Florida – Acting United States Attorney Sara C. Sweeney announces the return of an indictment charging Mario Antonio Mejia-Calderon (34, Honduras) with possession of a fraudulent permanent resident card – or “green card” – and illegal re-entry by a previously deported alien. If convicted on both counts, Mejia-Calderon faces a maximum penalty of 12 years in federal prison. Mejia-Calderon was arrested and ordered detained while awaiting trial.
According to the indictment, on January 24, 2025, Mejia-Calderon was found unlawfully present in the United States after having been deported on June 11, 2013. On that same day, he also possessed a counterfeit green card.
An indictment is merely a formal charge that a defendant has committed one or more violations of federal criminal law, and every defendant is presumed innocent unless, and until, proven guilty.
This case was investigated by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Enforcement Removal Operations (ERO). It will be prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Michael J. Coolican.
Jacksonville, Florida – Acting United States Attorney Sara C. Sweeney announces the return of an indictment charging Timoteo Son-Gonzalez (40), a Guatemalan national, with unlawful transportation of an illegal alien for the purpose of financial gain and illegal re-entry by a previously deported alien. If convicted on all counts, Son-Gonzalez faces a maximum penalty of 12 years in federal prison.
According to the indictment, in February 2025, Son-Gonzalez transported an alien for financial gain, knowing and in reckless disregard of the fact that the alien had come to, entered, and remained in the United States in violation of the law. The indictment also alleges that Son-Gonzalez was found to be unlawfully present in the U.S. after having been removed in June 2024.
An indictment is merely a formal charge that a defendant has committed one or more violations of federal criminal law, and every defendant is presumed innocent unless, and until, proven guilty.
This case was investigated by the United States Customs and Border Patrol. It will be prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Kelli Swaney.
Marc H. Silverman, Acting United States Attorney for the District of Connecticut, today announced that MICHAEL McCANN-ORTIZ, also known as “Bando,” 24, of Waterbury, pleaded guilty yesterday before U.S. District Judge Kari A. Dooley in Bridgeport to a carjacking offense.
According to court documents and statements made in court, in the early morning hours of June 18, 2023, two all-terrain vehicles (“ATVs”) were stolen from a Waterbury residence. After the theft, McCann-Ortiz and others identified an individual (“Victim 1”) who they believed was involved in the theft. Later that night, Victim 1’s friend, (“Victim 2”), picked up Victim 1 from work and drove him home. As they arrived at Victim 1’s residence, three vehicles followed them and surrounded the victims. McCann-Ortiz and his associates, one of whom carried an assault-style rifle, exited the vehicles and approached the victims. McCann-Ortiz and his associates demanded the return of the stolen ATVs, threatened both victims, and physically assaulted them.
Specifically, McCann-Ortiz repeatedly threatened to kill the victims, and punched and kicked one victim, causing serious bodily injury.
McCann-Ortiz and his associates then stole Victim 2’s vehicle, which was owned by Victim 2’s relative, and other items and cash belonging to the victims.
There is no indication that Victim 1 was, in fact, involved in the theft of the ATVs.
McCann-Ortiz pleaded guilty to carjacking resulting in serious bodily injury, an offense that carries a maximum term of imprisonment of 25 years. Judge Dooley scheduled sentencing for May 22.
McCann-Ortiz has been detained since his arrest on unrelated state charges on July 10, 2023.
This investigation is being conducted by the FBI’s Northern Connecticut Gang Task Force with the assistance of the Waterbury Police Department. The case is being prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorneys Nathan J. Guevremont and David T. Huang.
A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.
The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.
San José:An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Mr. Ding Ding, held the 2025 Article IV consultation with the Costa Rican authorities during February 18-28. At the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Ding issued the following statement:
Costa Rica is one of the fastest-growing economies in the Western Hemisphere, achieving notable economic success in recent years. GDP growth has averaged above 5 percent since 2021, outpacing regional peers and contributing to lower poverty and unemployment. Over the same period, public debt fell by an impressive 8 percentage points of GDP to below 60 percent of GDP. These successes are fruits of good macroeconomic policies, wide-ranging reforms in the context of becoming a member of the OECD, two successfully completed IMF-supported programs, and a strategic focus on exports and economic diversification. Growth is projected to remain strong at about 4 percent for 2025.
Inflation is showing encouraging signs of returning towards the inflation target,following decisive monetary policy easing by the BCCR. Having been near zero since mid-2024, headline inflation has begun to rise and is projected to reach the BCCR’s tolerance band in mid-2025 and the 3 percent target within a year. However, core inflation remains subdued and there are downside risks, primarily stemming from low inflation expectations becoming entrenched below the target. Upside risks could arise from possible commodity price increases and/or supply-side disruptions.
The BCCR’s forward-looking data-dependent approach has proven effective and its inflation targeting regime is working well. At the current monetary policy rate, inflation is expected to be 3 percent by 2026Q1. If the convergence of inflation to the 3 percent target weakens in the coming months, there is room for the BCCR to cut the policy rate further. Credit growth has been strong. If there are signs of excess credit growth especially associated with FX loans, macroprudential measures should be tightened to mitigate potential risks to financial stability.
It is important to further strengthen the BCCR’s autonomy, governance, and operational framework. This would be achieved by approving legislative proposals to improve BCCR governance, transparency, and accountability, and institutionalize the central bank’s de facto autonomy.
The exchange rate should be allowed to adjust more flexibly to market conditions. The BCCR accumulated US$ 920 million in international reserves during 2024, and reserve coverage is now comfortable by multiple metrics. A further accumulation of international reserves is unwarranted and would impose unnecessary costs over time. Moreover, frequent foreign exchange intervention can weaken monetary policy transmission and hinder foreign exchange market development. Concerted efforts including legal reforms are needed to deepen FX markets and strengthen the non-financial public sector’s ability to manage currency risks, reducing its reliance on the BCCR as an intermediary for FX transactions. Alongside the planned reform to restructure existing pension funds into generational funds, regulatory limits on foreign investments by local pension funds need to be updated. Adjustments to these limits should be phased in and supported by FX market development.
There is scope to further capitalize on the significant progress on financial sector oversight. Indicators of financial soundness remain comfortable, notwithstanding the resolution of two small non-bank financial institutions last year. These episodes highlighted the importance of a strong supervisory and resolution framework. The Legislative Assembly should, therefore, pass the proposed amendments to the bank resolution and deposit insurance law that would further strengthen supervisory and resolution powers and enhance the crisis management framework.
Although public debt fell to below 60 percent of GDP in 2024, the task of rebuilding fiscal space is not yet complete. The debt ratio fell in part due to some drawdown of cash balances and transfers of cash balances by decentralized and autonomous entities to the Treasury Single Account (which lowered financing needs). However, the primary surplus fell in 2024 due to temporary factors and the regrettable reductions of the vehicle property tax (marchamo) and corporate tax base. An unwinding of temporary factors is expected to help the primary balance rise to around 1½ percent of GDP this year. A higher primary balance is essential to bring debt down further, reduce interest costs, and create room for additional spending. While spending should be less than the ceiling permitted by the fiscal rule, the higher primary balance should still allow for some increases in priority areas like infrastructure, child and adult care (which will help boost female labor market participation), and investments in skills training for vulnerable groups (which will help reduce dependency on social assistance).
Tax reforms could improve the fairness and efficiency of the system while raising resources for both debt reduction and somewhat higher spending. However, revenue-increasing bills presented over the last five years that would also have increased progressivity and bolstered dynamism have not been viewed favorably by legislators. These have included proposals to reduce VAT and income tax exemptions (such as on the salario escolar and for lottery winnings) and to bring income from self-employment, salaries, and pensions under a single threshold while raising the top marginal rate. These bills warrant renewed consideration as higher revenues would allow faster increases in social and capital spending. At the same time, we are worried that various Legislative Assembly bills are reducing revenues.
Full implementation of the public employment bill and debt management reforms would improve spending quality and reduce interest costs. Legislative proposals aimed at amending the public employment law could significantly undermine progress in containing the public-sector wage bill. Institutions that have not yet fully implemented the public employment law should do so without further delay to ensure its benefits are broadened to beyond the central government. Legal reforms to permit access to international sovereign debt markets and grant the executive branch more flexibility in issuing external debt would also be valuable. There have been welcome improvements in the quality of government finance statistics, which are expected to be used in the setting of fiscal policies.
A comprehensive solution is needed to resolve the dispute between Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social (CCSS) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) over social security claims. The outstanding claim is due to an unfunded expansion of beneficiaries and CCSS’s unilateral decisions to raise the government’s contribution. Addressing this issue requires urgent improvements in the CCSS’s registry systems so as to allow for an accurate tracking of outlays and beneficiaries. Moreover, the CCSS and the MoF should clarify the scope of healthcare services and pension benefits that are currently covered by the budget while identifying additional funding sources as needed to ensure that the healthcare and pension systems are actuarially sound. Strengthening CCSS governance will be essential to ensure that any future changes to the social security system include a thorough assessment of the fiscal and labor market implications of such changes. There is also scope to enhance the accountability of the CCSS, the transparency of their operations, and the simplicity of the system, in line with international best practice. These reforms will be critical to safeguard the long-run sustainability of the social security system as the population ages.
Advancing supply-side reforms can help sustain Costa Rica’s impressive economic performance by addressing key bottlenecks to growth. To tackle skill shortages, particularly in high-tech industries, it is essential to accelerate efforts to reduce skills mismatches, align school curricula with industry needs, promote dual education (including apprenticeship programs) and bilingual education, and improve adult secondary education graduation rates. The recent reduction of the minimum contribution base for part-time workers has helped encourage formal employment but there is scope to lower the high tax wedge on labor, substituting for alternative revenue sources. Enhancing infrastructure quality and maintenance would further strengthen potential growth. In this regard, integrating climate considerations into public investment decisions is already making infrastructure more resilient against natural disasters. Given the substantial additional funding needed to upgrade infrastructure, approving and implementing the new legislation on public private partnerships is critical. Additionally, ongoing reforms to facilitate private-sector electricity provision, including diversification into non-hydroelectric renewables, will make electricity more affordable and less vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall.
The IMF team is grateful to the Costa Rican authorities and other counterparts for the productive discussions and hospitality during the mission.
Costa Rica: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
Projections
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Output and Prices
(Annual percentage change)
Real GDP
4.6
5.1
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.6
GDP deflator
6.3
-0.1
0.0
2.9
3.2
3.2
Consumer prices (period average)
8.3
0.5
-0.4
2.0
3.0
3.0
Savings and Investment
(In percent of GDP)
Gross domestic saving
14.4
13.8
14.3
14.1
14.1
14.3
Gross domestic investment
17.7
15.3
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.8
External Sector
Current account balance
-3.3
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
Trade balance
-6.7
-3.7
-2.7
-3.0
-2.8
-3.1
Financial account balance
-2.5
-0.7
-0.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
Foreign direct investment, net
-4.4
-4.3
-4.0
-5.3
-5.5
-5.4
Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollars)
8,724
13,261
14,181
15,056
16,077
16,827
External debt
50.7
43.3
38.6
35.5
33.3
30.9
Public Finances
Central government primary balance
2.1
1.6
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.7
Central government overall balance
-2.8
-3.2
-3.8
-3.0
-2.7
-2.3
Central government debt
63.0
61.1
59.8
59.4
58.4
57.1
Money and Credit
Credit to the private sector (percent change)
3.3
1.9
6.4
7.5
7.0
7.0
Monetary base 1/
8.0
7.9
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
Broad money
47.5
47.4
49.4
50.1
50.3
50.9
Memorandum Items
Nominal GDP (billions of colones) 2/
44,810
47,059
49,116
52,531
56,237
60,132
Output gap (as percent of potential GDP)
-0.3
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
GDP per capita (US$)
13,240
16,390
17,901
19,013
20,009
21,045
Unemployment rate
11.7
7.3
6.9
8.0
8.5
9.0
Sources: Central Bank of Costa Rica, and Fund staff estimates.
1/ Includes currency issued and required reserves.
2/ National account data reflect the revision of the benchmark year to 2017 for the chained volume measures, published in January 2021.
Keir Starmer was only the second European leader to visit Donald Trump’s second White House. The first, France’s Emmanuel Macron, had barely taken off when Starmer touched down, but had already raised the bar by behaving regally in front of the world’s media alongside his fellow president in the Oval Office.
In manner, Macron manifested his eight years in office (four of which were already spent with Trump in the White House). Starmer has had a mere eight months. But it was a challenge, judged in its own immediate terms, that the prime minister met.
Raising the curtain, in a highly untypical coup de théâtre, Starmer flourished – as few can – a letter from the King to give to the president, and then effectively forced Trump to read it on camera and agree to the invitation enclosed within.
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Starmer of course knew he was nudging an open door: much came down to assiduous preparation. The British Embassy, under a finally confirmed ambassador Peter Mandelson, worked overtime to choreograph and lubricate.
Starmer had been wise in contradicting Trump only indirectly. Nothing could be gained – as president Zelenskyy already demonstrated – from doing so publicly. So early an offer of a state visit to the UK ran the risk of appearing desperate, but was mitigated by its also being “unprecedented” as the second to be offered to Trump. A word recently worn smooth by over-use, there was nevertheless another precedent set in the suggestion of a pre-state visit visit between Trump and the king. With this president, more than any other, royal diplomacy is a critical national asset.
Starmer’s announcement of an increase in defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 worked similarly well. That funds are to be diverted from foreign aid for that purpose the Labour leadership deemed as being politically cost-free – or at least good value – politically. It was, indeed, almost Trumpian. The relevant minister disagreed.
It is hard to recall greater shifts in a country’s foreign policy in so short a space of time. Insofar as one can discern Trump’s purposefulness, it is to create pandemonium, which has the secondary effect of galvanising actors to act – not least for fear of further pandemonium.
Thus last week the US voting with Russia, Iran and North Korea, and not with Britain, at the UN. The Trump administration’s designation of choice is now “the Russia-Ukraine conflict”, as if it were merely a border dispute.
Therefore, ahead of Starmer’s arrival in Washington, he was faced with the US apparently aligning itself with a country his describes as “the most acute threat” to the UK. “Jaw-dropping” was the adjective of choice for more than a few informed observers who had thought themselves prepared for whatever may transpire.
The actors Trump primarily wishes to galvanise are European leaders, recalcitrants he thinks should do more to keep their own peace. For Macron to have been told that Putin would accept Nato forces policing the peace was scene-changing, but the only witness to the veracity of that news was Trump, who exhales untruths as easily as he breathes. The Russians soon denied it.
Macron’s offer of France’s (non-Nato) airborne nuclear force complemented Starmer’s commitment to British boots on the ground and helped him elicit Trump’s commitment to mutual defence.
But Trump guaranteeing the peace that Starmer and Macron are willing to police was the cherry conspicuously missing from the cake. The suggestion was subject to a classic Trump equivocation (we’ll always support the Brits, but they won’t need our support).
For the British government, July’s election already resembles a hospital pass. The effect of 20% tariffs on GDP growth could be catastrophic. Trump’s talk of tariff-free trade deals was more than expected, but one such was offered last time without much being doing about, before it was cancelled by President Biden. This time, Trump has said his vice president is drawing up a plan, even that being absent before.
And in a categorical demonstration of the benefits of lobbying there was effective presidential approval of the Chagos islands deal, simultaneously shooting one of Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s few foxes stone dead.
Warm words
Thus has passed the most potentially difficult meeting of a prime minister and a president since Suez. Nothing else comes close. Cliche – eggshells, tightropes – proliferated in previews.
When Starmer was last at the White House, in September, he had asked Biden for a meeting about Ukraine and received it. However unsatisfactory the outcome, public face was maintained. Trump has the ability – and the form – to have humiliated in a way which would permanently have scarred Starmer. That he did the opposite ought not to distract from the vulnerability of the supplicant.
Instead there were encomia from Trump as to the two countries – “special relationship”, “unique friendship”, “fantastic country”, “I’ve always cared” – and of Starmer – “a special man”, “a very special person”. And in describing Starmer’s accent as “beautiful”, the president revealed the hitherto unknown allure of the adenoidal.
Power plays sit ill with Starmer, but he nonetheless ventured two corrections from his armchiar, one to a statement made by the president and another to one made by the vice-president. The subsequent praise for Starmer’s negotiating tenacity from Trump, that much-vaunted artist of the deal, was as priceless – and unfamiliar – as the following morning’s front pages.
However successful this visit, however, nothing can be assumed, still less guaranteed. That the British government would so extensively war-game a meeting with its closest ally tells its own tale, or, rather a tale perhaps yet to be told. At this moment, for the next four years the relationship at least feels more secure than it did a few days before the trip. By such diurnal turns are the affairs of allies now measured.
Martin Farr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andre Spicer, Professor of Organisational Behaviour, Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London
When Oscar-winning screenwriter William Goldman was asked whether it was possible to predict a hit film, he responded with three words that have become a Hollywood maxim: “Nobody knows anything.” He went on to explain that “not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work”.
Although Goldman’s famous phrase might resonate through the film business, it doesn’t stop people cooking up theories around which films might succeed at the annual Academy of Motion Picture Awards. Over the years, a range of theories have appeared, including: Oscar winners are not always the best films; there is an Oscar-worthy format that winners follow; and that winning an Oscar is actually a long-term curse.
Although there is a great deal of speculation about such theories, it’s less clear what the evidence actually says about them. To find out, I took a look at the rapidly growing field of “Oscarology” – the scientific study of the Academy Awards.
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One common theory is that it is entirely predictable who the Oscars will go to. Interestingly, this seems to have some truth to it. One statistical analysis found that by tracking a range of factors, it was possible to predict the winner of the Academy Awards in the four major categories with an overall accuracy of 69%.
Nickel Boys, one of the best picture nominees.
Factors which go into making these predictions include whether the nominee won a Golden Globe or Directors Guild award, and their previous nominations for an Oscar. Past success is a strong indicator of future success, with one important exception: having previously won an Academy Award means a nominee for best actor or best actress is much less likely to win again.
A second theory is that winning an Oscar is a golden ticket to big financial rewards. This is indeed correct. A study found there is a substantial boost in US box office earnings following a win in the the best supporting actor/actress, best actor/actress and best picture categories.
Best picture nominee Conclave stars Ralph Fiennes, also nominated for best actor.
Further research has found that Oscar nominations really make a positive impact on box office receipts – while actually winning the award gives a more modest boost. Interestingly, winning an award does not always translate to success in other parts the world. One study found that Oscar winners that were comedies performed better in Asian markets, but dramas performed worse.
The next theory is the idea that Oscar winners follow a particular format. Researchers have indeed found there is an Oscar-worthy format which some filmmakers follow. The “Oscar bait” format uses genres like war movies, historical epics and biographies, as well as plot elements such as war crimes, disabilities, political intrigue and show business.
Mikey Madison, star of best picture nominee Anora, is also up for best actress.
However, making a film using this Oscar-worthy format is not a guarantee of success. Films employing this concept which were nominated for an award received significantly greater financial returns. However, those using the Oscar-bait format which missed out on a nomination typically made large losses.
Then comes the theory that winning an Oscar is more about the quality of networks rather than the quality of the film. Again, there is some truth to this. Researchers have found that one way to improve the chances of winning an Oscar is to be part of film industry networks and work alongside people who have already won awards.
As well as a best picture nomination, Wicked’s Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo are also nominated.
There are some indicators that Oscars do not necessarily go to the best-quality movies. One analysis which compared Oscar winners to lists of 100 best movies of all time found that only 26% of films which appeared on all three main lists of best movies were also Oscar winners.
This research also notes that some movies which are staples of lists of classic movies (such as Singing in the Rain) were not even nominated for the best picture Oscar. What this suggests is that winning an Oscar does not always mean a film will be seen as a classic – and vice versa.
Best picture nominee I’m Still Here sees Brazilian Fernanda Torres nominated for best actress.
The final theory is that there is an “Oscar curse” – that winning an Oscar leads to personal and professional tragedy. This theory is largely incorrect. Researchers have found that Oscar winners live about one year longer than their less successful peers. Others have found that winning an Academy Award leads to greater professional success, with Oscar winners and nominees appearing in more films than their non-winning peers.
However, one area of truth in the idea of an Oscar curse is for men in their personal lives. Nominees and winners of the best actor award had a higher divorce rate than their peers.
Theories around the Oscars may prove to be not entirely correct – but they do provide a useful approximation of which films will triumph. Past performance, social networks and formula-following all seem to be good indicators of who will succeed. Perhaps Goldman’s advice that “no one knows anything” is not entirely true.
Andre Spicer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The Vegan Tigress, a new play by Claire Parker, shines a spotlight on the largely-forgotten feminist fairytale writer Mary De Morgan (1850-1907). And the timing is particularly apt. The show opened, at London’s Bread & Roses Theatre, in the lead up to International Women’s Day and during the year of the 175th anniversary of De Morgan’s birth.
The production, by LynchPin Theatre Company, is part of a wider cultural project to celebrate underappreciated Victorian women writers, actors and activists. Parker has also written plays on feminist actor Ellen Terry and her daughter Edie Craig.
It also speaks to a general resurgence of interest in the creative De Morgan family. Mary’s father was Augustus De Morgan, the mathematician and logician and her brother was the potter, tile designer and novelist William De Morgan.
The Bread and Roses Theatre – an intimate space above a lively Clapham pub – creates an immersive experience. The audience shares De Morgan’s modest London quarters along with the accidentally summoned ghost of her ex-lover’s formidable mother: Lady Tuttle (played by Edie Campbell).
Providing comedic value, Tuttle deploys her spectral status to prank De Morgan (played by Parker), but her presence also highlights the stark differences between them, staging a debate between feminist and patriarchal versions of Victorian-Edwardian womanhood.
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Shrill-voiced, upper-class and tightly corseted, Tuttle opposes women’s education and refers to suffragettes as “hyenas in petticoats and bitter spinsters”.
Striding across the stage swathed in silk skirts and a velvet, lace-trimmed bodice, she is both a mesmerising and somewhat villainous matriarch. By contrast, De Morgan is an irreverent free spirit who wears bohemian clothing, admires revolutionaries and has been a suffragist since she was 16.
The show portrays De Morgan as a pioneering professional woman, writing feverishly at a desk flanked by piles of beautiful antiquarian books. Parker and Campbell are hypnotic in their imaginative retellings and performances of De Morgan’s stories such as the The Hair Tree (1877), which are woven into the play.
The Vegan Tigress transports the audience into fantastical realms, fusing eerie lighting with dazzling props and sound effects – thunder, birdsong, clamouring voices.
With impressive ease, the actors shape-shift into bizarre animal forms – a puppet parrot, a tortured tiger and a grotesque tortoise. Together they illuminate the sociopolitical subtexts of De Morgan’s stories.
The trailer for The Vegan Tigress.
Her subversive tale from 1877, A Toy Princess (which Parker describes in the play), critiques doll-like ideals of femininity, prefigures the feminist fairy tales of Angela Carter and resonates with the Barbiemania that surrounded the release of the Barbie film in 2023.
In literature and in life, De Morgan resists conventional narratives of marriage and motherhood, enacting alternative destinies for women.
Especially successful as a visual manifestation of the stories’ transformative power is the simultaneously symbolic and literal change we witness in Lady Tuttle.
The more she reads The Windfairies (1900, one of three fairy tale collections by De Morgan) and political publications (Votes for Women), the less straitlaced she becomes – literally. Her corset unbuttons and her tied hair loosens. Despite being a ghost, Lady Tuttle comes alive as her mind expands, testifying to the powerful potential of reading and writing.
In joyful and poignant moments of female bonding in the second half of the play, Tuttle and De Morgan dance the tango, and embark arm-in-arm on the trip of a lifetime to Egypt, where De Morgan worked in real life in a girls’ reformatory. The show becomes a celebration of female creativity, companionship and community.
At the play’s close, the fourth wall is broken and the audience is addressed by De Morgan as “people from the future”. It prompts a reflection on how far we have come since first-wave feminism, but also how far we still have to go (given #MeToo and the reversal of Roe v Wade, the US Supreme Court ruling that legalised abortion across the States in 1973), making Parker’s revival of De Morgan timely and important.
If De Morgan’s legacy is, as she soliloquises, “arming lost, disenfranchised girls and women with the tools to stand their ground”, what will ours be?
Lucy Ella Rose does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has arrived in Washington for talks with his US counterpart, Donald Trump. One of the key issues on their agenda is the “very big deal” announced by the US president on February 25. This deal would give the United States access to Ukraine’s critical mineral and rare earth deposits in return for continuing US support.
Trump has made sure his domestic audience understands that – as he told his first cabinet meeting on February 26 – in contrast to his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, he’s getting something out of Kyiv in return for the support the US has given Ukraine in the past.
The message coming from the Ukrainian side was a bit more circumspect. Zelensky took pains to emphasise that the deal was still a draft and that its successful conclusion would depend on the outcome of talks with Trump.
The lack of Ukrainian enthusiasm for the deal is justified. In its present form, it looks more like a memorandum of understanding that leaves several vital issues to be resolved later. The deal on offer is the creation of will be called a “reconstruction investment fund”, to be jointly owned and managed by the US and Ukraine.
Into the proposed fund will go 50% of the revenue from the exploitation of “all relevant Ukrainian government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian government)” and “other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure)”.
This means that private infrastructure – much of it owned by Ukraine’s wealthy oligarchs – is likely to become part of the deal. This has the potential of further increasing friction between Zelensky and some very powerful Ukrainians.
Meanwhile, US contributions are less clearly defined. The preamble to the agreement makes it clear that Ukraine already owes the US. The very first paragraph notes that “the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022”.
Western and Ukrainian analysts have also pointed out that there may be fewer and less accessible mineral and rare earth deposits in Ukraine than are currently assumed. The working estimates have been based mostly on Soviet-era data.
Since the current draft leaves details on ownership, governance and operations to be determined in a future fund agreement, Trump’s very big deal is at best the first step. Future rounds of negotiations are to be expected.
Statement of intent
From a Ukrainian perspective, this is more of a strength than a weakness. It leaves Kyiv with an opportunity to achieve more satisfactory terms in future rounds of negotiation. Even if any improvements will only be marginal, it keeps the US locked into a process that is, overall, beneficial for Ukraine.
Take the example of security guarantees. The draft agreement offers Ukraine nothing anywhere near Nato membership. But it notes that the US “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace”, adding that: “Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments.”
The significance of this should not be overstated. At its bare minimum, it is an expression of intent by the US that falls short of security guarantees but still gives the US a stake in the survival of Ukraine as an independent state.
But it is an important signal both in terms of what it does and does not do – a signal to Russia, Europe and Ukraine.
Trump does not envisage that the US will give Ukraine security guarantees “beyond very much”. He seems to think that these guarantees can be provided by European troops (the Kremlin has already cast doubts on this idea).
But this does not mean the idea is completely off the table. On the contrary, because the US commitment is so vague, it gives Trump leverage in every direction.
He can use it as a carrot and a stick against Ukraine to get more favourable terms for US returns from the reconstruction investment fund. He can use it to push Europe towards more decisive action to ramp up defence spending by making any US protection for European peacekeepers contingent on more equitable burden-sharing in Nato.
And he can signal to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that the US is serious about making a deal stick – and that higher American economic stakes in Ukraine and corporate presence on the ground would mean US-backed consequences if the Kremlin reneges on a future peace agreement and restarts hostilities.
That these calculations will ultimately lead to the “free, sovereign and secure Ukraine” that the agreement envisages is not a given.
For now, however, despite all its shortcomings and vagueness on key issues, it looks like it serves all sides’ interests in moving forward in this direction, albeit at a snail’s pace.
Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.
Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
We are aware of recent issues with traffic congestion on the inbound side of Tavistock Road, where works are taking place for the Woolwell to the George scheme (which will provide long-term benefits for the city).
We absolutely understand the frustration and pressure this causes for people travelling through the area and would like to apologise for this.
We had experienced some issues before Christmas at the Belliver (Plessey) roundabout, which were causing traffic to build up along Tamerton Road but we were able to alleviate this with changes to the length of road available to merge in.
However, since the traffic management changes made a few weeks ago, traffic has been building up there again, as well as on Belliver Roundabout and along the inbound side of Tavistock Road. We have had our teams on site today to assess the situation for ourselves to see how we can improve the flow of traffic on this stretch of the road.
We have been monitoring these new issues and we now believe the main cause of the queuing is the high demand and ‘call’ timing at the pedestrian crossing at Woolwell Roundabout.
Signal engineers are on site today and have adjusted the signal timings of the crossing, in the hope this will help to improve traffic flow. They will continue to monitor the situation in the coming days and weeks and will make further adjustments if we need to.
In the meantime we would like to thank drivers for their patience while these works are under way.
A total of 23 years in prison for a former Brookside actor and his associates has been awarded this afternoon.
Former Brookside actor Philip Foster and eight associates have today (28 February 2025) been sentenced for their part in a £13.6 million fraud that ran for over eight years.
The sentences handed down at Sheffield Crown Court today are the result of an over 6-year investigation by National Trading Standards, whose work uncovered an extensive network of sham modelling agencies that cruelly exploited the dreams of aspiring young models and their parents.
Foster was the ringleader of the operation. He orchestrated the fraud from Spain, using a network of associates based in England who operated a string of sham modelling agencies and photography studios in cities across the country, including London, Manchester, Leeds, Bristol, Coventry, and Nottingham.
More than 6,000 victims were deceived by the group – mainly young people and mothers – who ended up parting with substantial amounts of money under the false promise of securing paid modelling work.
The fraud worked by setting up a photographic studio in the area and running a social media advertising campaign. People who responded were given the false impression that a model agency was interested in them, with emails telling them they had potential. Victims were then invited to a ‘free’ test shoot at the photographic studio, which turned out to be a ruse to try to extort money out of them.
At the test shoot, victims were given a studio experience, handed glossy brochures and told how successful other people had been. They would then be told that they passed their studio test and that modelling agencies were interested, but they needed to purchase their portfolio photographs from the studio in order to join an agency and become an agency model.
Victims were duped by the group who, between them, gave a good impression of running successful model businesses and lied to them about their potential. Millions of pounds were taken from aspiring models, with some coerced into financing the upfront payment through credit deals arranged by the fraudsters or taking out expensive payday loans.
Instead, victims received poor quality digital photographs that stood no real chance of landing them professional jobs. Virtually none of the victims received any paid modelling work.
The sham agencies were often dissolved after short periods, rebranded repeatedly to avoid detection, and paid no tax. Money from the scam was laundered through UK bank accounts before being transferred to Spain or carried in cash on commercial flights by co-conspirators.
The investigation traced substantial sums to Foster, who lived in luxury abroad and purchased high-end watches and cars with the proceeds of the fraud. The investigation heard how many victims, left financially and emotionally devastated, described feeling humiliated and betrayed. Some experienced lasting distress that affected their confidence, wellbeing and their ability to trust others.
The sentences, which were handed down today in the absence of Philip Foster, who is currently living in Spain, are as follows:
Philip Foster, aged 49, Edificio Marina Mariola, Marbella, Spain, sentenced to 8.5 years for conspiracies to defraud
Michael Foster, aged 27, Snowdon Lane, Liverpool, sentenced to 3.5 years for conspiracy to defraud
Paul Evans, aged 39, no known address, sentenced to 3.5 years for offences related to money laundering
Jamie Peters, aged 52, Pentland Place, Warrington, sentenced to 24 months, suspended for 2 years, for conspiracy to defraud
Lisa Foster, aged 42, Manchester Road, Astley, sentenced to 18 months, suspended for 12 months, for conspiracy to defraud
Emily Newall, aged 29, Bolton Road, Kearsley, Greater Manchester, sentenced to 10 months, suspended for 12 months, for conspiracy to defraud
Atif Qadar, aged 44, Larkswood Drive, Crowthorne, sentenced to 12 months, suspended for 12 months, for conspiracy to defraud
Paul Fleury, aged 57, Manchester Road, Swinton, Manchester, sentenced to 18 months, suspended for 12 months, for conspiracy to defraud
Aslihan Foster aged 39, Tredington Road, Coventry, sentenced to 18 months, suspended for 12 months, for an offence related to money laundering
Today’s sentencing follows over 6 years of investigative work by the National Trading Standards eCrime Team, hosted by North Yorkshire Council and City of York Council, including forensic analysis of financial transactions, thousands of consumer complaints, and witness testimony from victims. The team was supported by the National Trading Standards South West Regional Investigations Team, hosted by Bristol City Council.
Judge Dixon, said:
“The business worked on the basis of greed taking what they could where they could. Some people were so convinced by the level of deception that they took out payday loans, which gives a clear indication as to how manipulative and cynical the fraud was. It was horrible, despicable, dishonest behaviour and every single one of you deserves to go to prison.
“The officers have carried out an exceptional job to bring these defendants to justice. It was not straightforward or easy. This investigation was conducted with particular skill. A commendation should be made on the basis of the skill deployed.”
Lord Bichard, Chair of the National Trading Standards, said:
“Foster’s cruel exploits left thousands of victims in serious debt, causing lasting emotional distress and significant financial pressures.
“Today’s sentences are an important reminder to would-be criminals that Trading Standards officers across the country are determined to clamp down on fraud, protecting victims and bringing criminals to justice.
“I would encourage anyone who has been a victim of similar scams to report it to the Citizens Advice Consumer Service on 0808 223 1133.”
Cllr Jenny Kent, Executive Member with responsibility for Trading Standards at City of York Council, said:
Today’s sentencing follows years of highly effective trading standards investigative work. Mr Foster and his associates made millions by exploiting the hopes of young people, leaving a trail of broken dreams and financial hardship. I urge everyone to question any modelling contract which demands money up front, and hope that the young people and families affected can now move on to a brighter future, whichever path they choose.”
North Yorkshire Council’s executive member Cllr Greg White, whose responsibilities include Trading Standards, said:
“Foster and his fellow scammers cruelly exploited young hopefuls trying to break into one of the most competitive industries. In some cases, parents borrowed money or sacrificed savings, believing they were investing in their children’s futures.
“I urge anyone searching online for modelling opportunities to remember that legitimate agencies don’t ask for money upfront, it’s often only scam agencies who push expensive photoshoots as a pre-requisite to getting work.”
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. – Six individuals were arrested this month for conspiring to distribute 50 grams or more of methamphetamine in the Quincy, Illinois, area and illegally using a communication facility. A list of the defendants follows.
Marcus T. Bush, 41, of Alton, Illinois, was arrested on February 21, 2025, and had an initial appearance before United States District Judge Colleen R. Lawless that same day. At a detention hearing on February 25, 2025, the judge ordered that Bush be detained pending trial. Bush remains in the custody of the United States Marshal Service.
If convicted of conspiracy to distribute methamphetamine, Bush faces statutory penalties ranging from 15 years up to a life term of imprisonment, up to a $10,000,000 fine, and at least a ten-year term of supervised release. If convicted of illegal use of communication facility, Bush faces a maximum of four years’ imprisonment, not more than a $30,000 fine, and up to a three-year term of supervised release.
Lasha B. Lewis, 40, of St. Louis, Missouri, was arrested on February 21, 2025, and had an initial appearance before Judge Lawless that same day. At a detention hearing on February 25, 2025, the judge ordered that Lewis be released on bond.
Aamina R. Dorsey, 36, of St. Louis, Missouri, was arrested on February 21, 2025, and had an initial appearance before Judge Lawless that same day. At a detention hearing on February 26, 2025, the judge ordered that Dorsey be released on bond.
Nicholas A. Strieker, 27, of Quincy, Illinois, was arrested on February 21, 2025, and had an initial appearance before Judge Lawless that same day. At a detention hearing on February 26, 2025, the judge ordered that Strieker be detained pending trial. Strieker remains in the custody of the United States Marshal Service.
Bruce L. Pinnick, 49, of Quincy, Illinois, was arrested on February 21, 2025, and had an initial appearance before Judge Lawless that same day. At a detention hearing on February 27, 2025, the judge ordered that Pinnick be detained pending trial. Pinnick remains in the custody of the United States Marshal Service.
Michael A. Bloodson, 42, of Chicago, Illinois, was arrested on February 27, 2025, and had an initial appearance before Judge Lawless on February 28, 2025. The judge ordered Bloodson temporarily detained pending a detention hearing set for March 6, 2025, at 1 p.m.
If convicted of conspiracy to distribute methamphetamine, these defendants face statutory penalties ranging from 10 years up to a life term of imprisonment, up to a $10,000,000 fine, and at least a five-year term of supervised release. If convicted of illegal use of communication facility, the five face a maximum of four years’ imprisonment, not more than a $30,000 fine, and up to a three-year term of supervised release.
A federal grand jury previously returned indictments against each of the defendants on February 4, 2025.
The investigation was led by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Springfield Field Office, and the Illinois State Police West Central Illinois Task Force, with significant assistance from the Quincy Police Department and Adams County Sheriff’s Office. Additional support was also provided by the Adams County State’s Attorney’s Office; the Drug Enforcement Administration, St. Louis Field Office and Springfield Residence Office; the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Illinois; the United States Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Missouri; the Alton Police Department, and the Chicago Heights Police Department.
The case is being prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorney Sarah E. Seberger.
Members of the public are reminded that the charges in a complaint are merely accusations, and a defendant is presumed innocent unless proven guilty in a court of law.
The case is part of an Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces (OCDETF) investigation. OCDETF identifies, disrupts, and dismantles the highest-level drug traffickers, money launderers, gangs, and transnational criminal organizations that threaten the United States by using a prosecutor-led, intelligence-driven, multi-agency approach that leverages the strengths of federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies against criminal networks. Additional information about the OCDETF Program can be found at https://www.justice.gov/OCDETF.
ALBUQUERQUE – A To’Hajiilee man was sentenced to 72 months in prisonfor voluntary manslaughter in connection with the death of John Doe in May 2022.
There is no parole in the federal system.
According to court documents, on May 27, 2022, Cole Ray Shorty, 21, an enrolled member of the Navajo Nation, went to John Doe’s residence bringing other people with him including a juvenile. Upon arrival, Shorty found John Doe sitting in his car outside his residence.
Shorty approached Doe’s car and opened the back door. In response, Doe exited the vehicle with a bat and a struggle ensued. Doe was taken to the ground and was disarmed of the bat. Instead of leaving the scene, Shorty struck Doe in the head with the bat, leaving him injured and unconscious at the scene.
John Doe died from their injuries at the University of New Mexico Hospital on May 30, 2022. The Office of the Medical Inspector confirmed that the cause of death was blunt head trauma and classified it as a homicide.
Upon his release from prison, Shorty will be subject to three years of supervised release.
Acting U.S. Attorney Holland S. Kastrin and Raul Bujanda, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI Albuquerque Field Office, made the announcement today.
The FBI Albuquerque Field Office investigated this case with assistance from the Navajo Police Department and Navajo Department of Criminal Investigations. Assistant U.S. Attorneys Brittany DuChaussee, Zachary Jones, Mark Probasco, and Meg Tomlinson prosecuted the case.
CLEVELAND, Feb. 28, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — OnStation, the leading provider of live digital stationing solutions for the heavy highway industry, announced today a new product that prioritizes jobsite worker safety. Active Worksite™ allows all OnStation App users to notify the traveling public of “workers ahead” using connected navigation apps powered by an integration with iCone. This new technology introduces a never-before-seen alert for drivers and communicates the urgency of slowing down in construction zones where workers are present.
Available in March 2025, the product sends fully anonymized worker location data to iCone who then relays the information to statewide traffic safety data feeds and popular navigation apps in real time. When Active Worksite™ is toggled on by an OnStation App user who is within 130 feet of a stationed project alignment centerline, drivers will receive an alert within their driving apps like Waze, connected OEM navigation systems and other display dashboards. The OnStation system does not share the user’s location when disabled and is not intended to be used for tracking purposes with other entities on the OnStation system. The user experience for the traveling public is similar to current notifications for speed zones, debris on roadway, and stalled cars. When drivers realize humans are present, they are more likely to slow down and watch for workers.
Unlike conventional Temporary Traffic Control (TTC) guidelines found in Maintenance of Traffic (MOT) plans, which are meticulously crafted months ahead with fixed construction timelines, OnStation’s approach dynamically adapts to the real-time presence of workers, ensuring seamless and safe operations throughout the project. Because the road worker initiates the action in the OnStation App, essentially creating a live beacon, drivers will see a new, more relevant alert, one that is especially impactful during unexpected hours on nights and weekends. Active Worksite™ can also be activated in cases where the work is impromptu, in the absence of a stationed centerline, such as shoulders where road maintenance crews are removing roadkill or repairing roadway features.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries, more than half of all highway worker fatalities at road construction sites in 2022 involved a worker on foot being struck by a vehicle. Further, 2023 data shows the construction industry accounts for the highest total number of fatal work injuries in the private sector, and the third highest fatality rate per 100,000 workers at 9.6.
“It’s time for a behavior change,” says Nate Till from Brooks Construction. “The injury and fatality data for roadway construction is daunting. If we can get the average driver to understand there are hard working men and women coming up ahead in the roadway, it humanizes the problem and gets people to change their behavior. We know that speed zone alerts work by getting people to slow down and avoid tickets. Now, with Active Worksite™, we can get people to slow down in construction zones before it’s too late.” Brooks Construction, an existing OnStation customer, has already purchased the product.
Active Worksite™ is available for a flat fee in addition to purchases of any OnStation license type. Visit onstationapp.com for more information about OnStation and its solutions.
About OnStation
OnStation is a collaborative digital stationing platform that offers location-based project records from bid to close. Specifically designed for the heavy highway industry, OnStation’s mobile app centralizes communication, boosts productivity, enhances worker safety, and improves project quality. Users benefit from live jobsite stationing, milepost, and LRS capabilities. They can overlay design layers on the project map and communicate via a custom chat platform that organizes and records project events at their locations. OnStation is available on both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store and is supported on all desktop systems.
Headline: New era of ambient intelligence is helping support healthcare providers and patients
Next time you’re in a public place, stop and look around. Notice how many people are head’s down, staring at their phones. This is one of the unintended consequences of technology: while the intent is to connect us more to the world, it often distracts us from what’s actually happening around us.
This unintended technological distraction has also had a negative impact in healthcare. Over the last decade, increasing regulations and mounting administrative burdens placed upon doctors, nurses, and radiologists, have come at a high cost to those who had dedicated their lives to caring for others. The effects of this have been well documented, with rising job dissatisfaction and burnout rates, increasing staffing shortages as clinicians leave the workforce, and the continued erosion of doctor-patient connection.1
As a technologist who has been working on cracking some of the thorniest problems in healthcare, it’s painful to know that for years, despite our best efforts, technology has seemed one step behind in being able to restore the joy of caring for patients while simultaneously providing a more connected digital experience.
That is, until the introduction of GPT. With generative AI, we’ve seen an incredibly positive and disrupting force in healthcare, and these gains will only increase as this critical innovation is applied to some of the most complex problems in healthcare. In fact, over the next three years, we will begin to see a tectonic shift in the entire user experience, moving from technology that is injected into various use cases to the pervasive infusion of AI that is seamlessly embedded into the ways we live and work.
Discover AI-powered solutions with Microsoft Cloud for Healthcare
In healthcare, ambient intelligence will be the driving force for restoring the joy of practicing medicine and providing a better experience for patients.
The real story of ambient intelligence
There’s a lot written about technology curves and AI in healthcare, but I want to tell you the story that isn’t in the history books. The real story of how ambient intelligence was born.
Some of us are old enough to remember the original Star Trek from the 1960’s where there was a computer that would be listening to the crew have a conversation and then weigh in with any guidance related to the situation at hand. It wasn’t trying to take over, it wasn’t replacing the captain and officers on the bridge, it was just supporting the team by adding insights in real time to augment the decision-making process.
Most of us saw this as a cool sci-fi idea until one day, during a meeting with Epic, we talked about finding a way to make healthcare more intuitive, like the AI in Star Trek. The gauntlet had been thrown, and we were in.
Charting a new course in healthcare technology
Inherent in ambient intelligence are two equally important variables, accurately transcribing a conversation between the doctor and patient into a text, and then turning that transcript into a clinical note.
That was back in 2014, when there were no large language models, patient data wasn’t widely available, systems were extremely siloed, there wasn’t a way to even capture the recording and, even if those other aspects were possible, speech recognition for clinical conversations were running at about 50% word error rate (WER). This meant that the speech recognition system was getting only correctly capturing about half of the words spoken. That was essentially the state-of-the-art for ambient medical speech recognition and simply put, it didn’t work.
We weren’t sure if and when we’d ultimately be successful, but we knew the first challenge that we needed to tackle was getting more data to feed our models so that we could understand this emerging ambient workflow. We started a research program to boost recognition performance for ambient conversational medical speech because at that time, the major breakthroughs were being made in neural computing.
We then turned our attention to abstractive summarization, or essentially trying to figure out how to convert the conversational transcript between the doctor and patient into a structured clinical note, which is subject to a variety of constraints and requirements necessary for appropriate documentation.
Back then summarization was in its infancy, but the new neural summarization technology showed a lot of promise when large in-domain data sets comprised of millions of input and summarized output pairs were available. Although these data sets didn’t exist yet, there were virtual scribing workflows, where doctor-patient conversations were recorded and manually processed by human scribes. So, we made the decision to use clinical scribes to train the increasingly powerful models that were tailored to the task and then observe how their application accelerated clinical documentation. Essentially, the scribes were generating in-domain data that was then used by neural summarization machine learning to develop ambient summarization.
Given the complexities of a clinical encounter, we started with medical specialties that had highly-repetitive scenarios, like orthopedics, and then expanded to cover all ambulatory specialties across a larger population of doctors.
While we were making gains, they were incremental. To give you a sense of what this looked like, here is a chart that shows each new model revision as a plot point and you can see the percent of clinical encounters processed by AI and resulting human-in-the-loop edit rates, versus our forecast of where those figures would be.
Image source: HLS Solutions Research, January 2025
The dawn of a new era
It’s inevitable that anyone who’s tried to tackle an extremely thorny problem at some point will hit a wall where they ask themselves the question: Are we beating the problem or is the problem beating us? Although we had parity in converting a doctor-patient conversation to text, converting transcripts into customized clinical notes across specialties was challenging, and progress was slower than we would have liked. We were using a human-in-the-loop to improve the quality of our model output, which wasn’t a scalable long-term solution, and we had stalled at an error rate that would not produce automation. We didn’t know the exact formula to make the problem yield.
Then, GPT happened.
Overnight, the scaling laws of AI changed. Major technological gains went from happening every one-and-a-half years to happening four times a year. While at the time, it had felt like we were hitting a wall, in hindsight, that time allowed us to deeply understand the requirements of how this technology would show up in the doctors’ workflow, and we partnered with the EHR companies to work through the technical details and optimize the user experience.
We immediately put a stake in the ground and began leveraging this new AI.
We used GPT as a shortcut to fine tune models and customize output, which allowed us to move faster while dramatically improving outcomes. We were also getting real-time feedback from clinicians who let us know what was working well and, most importantly, where the experience wasn’t optimized. It’s that latter feedback that is always the most helpful, because it enables us to triangulate the problems and work on ways to fine tune and improve the experience.
Based on the foundational models, we could see we would have a prototype in six months, but the challenge was that out-of-the-box GPT—while good—was not as performant as our bespoke models. That’s when we decided to combine generative AI and our unique training corpus. Within six months of a blistering R&D cycle, the team delivered a level of automation that had previously been unachievable in the prior six years. It was one of the first times in history that GPT-4 had been fine tuned for healthcare.
The new scaling laws were bending the curve of innovation. We were at the dawn of a new era: The ambient AI market.
Image source: Epoch, ‘Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning’
Over the course of 11 months, we went from zero users to creating the first clinical ambient intelligence experience for doctors that is trusted by more than 600 major healthcare systems, and producing more than 3 million episodes of care per month and growing.
We achieved human parity, and had achieved a level of performance that enabled automation that provided doctors with a draft clinical note that required minimal editing, the automation problem had begun to yield.
The future is now
The future that we had classified as science fiction is here today, and ambient listening has already become table stakes. In fact, we release AI improvements weekly to our speech and listening technologies, which have been trusted and used by hundreds of thousands of clinicians for years.
But more than that, we are witnessing a massive pivot unlike anything we’ve seen before: a new form of user experience—the combination of natural interaction and the infusion of real-time intelligence.
As exciting as this all is, the true promise of addressing clinician burnout, improving the patient experience, and delivering better health outcomes hinges on collaboration and partnership. Every company operating in this space is limited by the laws of single company physics, which is why it’s an exciting time to be at a partner-led company. By opening up our ecosystem, we are harnessing the power of the Microsoft platform and extending it to thousands of companies worldwide that are focused on building applications and capabilities to improve the doctor-patient experience and positively impact the episode of care.
We are enabling partners in the ecosystem to publish their capabilities directly into our ambient dial tone—the power of thousands of incredible minds all working to help clinicians, and solving for high-value use cases ranging from clinical condition diagnosis, autonomous clinical coding, and automating outbound healthcare consumer messaging, to enhancing data analytics and interpretation, medical literature discovery, autogenerating personalized patient educational materials, and automating clinical trial patient identification. These are just a few of the thousands of areas of innovation that are being actively worked on by healthcare companies worldwide. And this is the power of the platform. This is the ecosystem that will transform the way care is delivered, enhance patient experiences, support better outcomes across the health and life science ecosystem, and restore the joy of practicing medicine to clinicians around the world.
Trust above all else
No conversation about generative AI should happen without talking about responsibility, and no technology should be deployed without a detailed examination around what is contained in the data and how it is being used. Key responsible AI standards around fairness, reliability and safety, privacy and security, inclusiveness, and transparency must take the center stage in every discussion. AI is like a massive power tool, and data is the current powering it—so everyone handling it needs to be trained properly and aware of any unintended consequences or potential harm it could cause.
Creating high-value use cases that deliver real outcomes
In the end, the real testament to building outcomes-based technology comes down to one simple fact: does using it empower the person to do and be the best version of themselves? To that end, we carefully track the performance of all our solutions to make sure we’re building technology that is living up to its promise and exceeding expectations. I recommend that anyone who is advancing an AI agenda should do the same, because this is the real path to advancing human abilities and improving the healthcare ecosystem.
Not every day is a win, and that’s okay—this is a marathon, not a sprint—but we continue to see powerful outcomes reported back by the people we serve. We’re seeing:
70% improvement in work-life balance for clinicians and reduced feeling of burnout and fatigue.2
80% feel it reduces cognitive burden.3
5 minutes save per clinician per encounter (on average).4
93% of patients say their physician is more personable and conversational.5
Hear what clinicians have to say about this AI-powered clinical automation solution:
As great as these results are, we’re not settling. We’re going to keep pushing ahead, refining our models, working with doctors, nurses, radiologists, and leaders across the health care and life sciences ecosystem to deliver the best technologies for those who continue to dedicate their lives to helping others. We’re just at the beginning of our journey, and we will continue to relentlessly innovate, and find new ways to streamline documentation, surface information, and automate tasks for clinicians worldwide.
Learn more
Microsoft Cloud for Healthcare
Accelerate innovation and improve healthcare experiences
1AMA, Burnout benchmark: 28% unhappy with current health care job, May 17, 2022.
2 Microsoft survey of 879 clinicians across 340 healthcare organizations using DAX Copilot; July 2024.
3 Microsoft survey of 879 clinicians across 340 healthcare organizations using DAX Copilot; July 2024.
4 Microsoft survey of 879 clinicians across 340 healthcare organizations using DAX Copilot; July 2024.
5 Survey of 413 patients conducted by multiple healthcare organizations whose clinicians use DAX Copilot; June 2024.
Joe Petro
Corporate Vice President, Microsoft Health & Life Sciences
Joe Petro is the Corporate Vice President of Microsoft Health & Life Sciences (HLS) Solutions and Platforms, which develops integrated heathcare experiences that provide greater access to care, enhance the clinician-patient relationship, and improve outcomes.
Katrin Glatz Brubakk, a child psychotherapist and mental health activity manager for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), recently returned from her second mission in the Gaza Strip, Palestine. She answers three questions about the state of people’s mental health in Gaza and why it is crucial for the ceasefire to hold.
1. You’ve been to Gaza twice, once from August to September 2024 and then from January to February 2025, what can you tell us about the state of people’s mental health when the ceasefire was announced?
When the ceasefire started, people could finally breathe a bit easier. They had been in survival mode for more than 15 months and finally didn’t have to worry that bombs would drop on their tents during the night or that their children might get killed while they went out to fetch bread or water. They started to gain a bit of hope that life might go back to some form of normal.
But then they started to worry about the future. How long would the ceasefire last? Could they move back to their old homes? How long would it take before their children could get back to school, and would there even be any kind of normal life again in Gaza with all the destruction?
What I saw was the ‘grief of peace’ emerging. During the war, survival was the only focus, but with the ceasefire, people began to grieve everything they’d lost: their houses, their normal life, family members—some still under the rubble—their children’s education, their sense of security, prosperity, and hope for the future. Even though the bombs weren’t falling anymore, there was still a lot of worry.
Katrin Glatz Brubakk, a child psychotherapist and mental health activity managerWhat I saw was the ‘grief of peace’ emerging. During the war, survival was the only focus, but with the ceasefire, people began to grieve everything they’d lost…
They’ve been clinging to the hope of getting back to their lives for as long as the ceasefire lasts. One of my colleagues said, “It doesn’t matter how much has been destroyed, it doesn’t matter that we’ve lost everything as long as they’re not killing us.” I really worry about what will happen to people’s mental health in Gaza. The ceasefire needs to hold. Children have been looking forward to going back to their rooms, seeing their friends, and going to school again. If the ceasefire doesn’t continue, that hope will be gone, and it will be devastating for the people of Gaza.
2. You worked at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis and at the modular field hospital in Deir-al-Balah, what can you tell us about the patients you treated there?
The mental health of both children and adults in Gaza has been severely affected. They have gone through immense trauma, worrying about their lives for more than a year. We see depressive symptoms in adults and children—some pulling out their hair, biting themselves, being restless all the time, or becoming totally withdrawn from the world because they can’t take it anymore.
One of the children I met in Gaza is ’the koala bear.’ It’s her mother who calls her that because she clings to her all the time. She’s a beautiful little girl, three years old, with curly hair and curious eyes, but as soon as you get close, she moves back, fearful, and clings even tighter to her mother. She lived in northern Gaza with her family. First, they were bombed, and she was injured. Then they didn’t have enough food, and her little sister, just one year and two months old, starved to death. After that, this little girl started to cling to her mother constantly.
She doesn’t leave her side, when she’s sleeping, when she’s awake—even when she gets curious about something—she always makes sure to stay very close. These are the effects of war on children. They spend their entire time being scared, living this life is full of uncertainty and they wonder if the worst will happen to them. They don’t spend time being children as they should—playing, learning, exploring, making friends.
All the things that are the basis of healthy human development are being taken away from them. This war will live in these children for years to come.
3. Why is it important that the ceasefire lasts?
The ceasefire needs to hold because without it, these children will once again be trapped in extreme survival mode, where every moment is about staying alive. It needs to hold because their future is being stripped away from them. The ceasefire needs to hold because the toll of this war on the people in Gaza has been immense, both physically and psychologically. They can’t take it anymore. They can’t take the fear of getting killed every day or of keeping their children alive. The ceasefire in Gaza needs to hold because the uncertainty, fear and trauma have lasted too long for anyone to bear.
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A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.
The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.
San José:An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Mr. Ding Ding, held the 2025 Article IV consultation with the Costa Rican authorities during February 18-28. At the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Ding issued the following statement:
Costa Rica is one of the fastest-growing economies in the Western Hemisphere, achieving notable economic success in recent years. GDP growth has averaged above 5 percent since 2021, outpacing regional peers and contributing to lower poverty and unemployment. Over the same period, public debt fell by an impressive 8 percentage points of GDP to below 60 percent of GDP. These successes are fruits of good macroeconomic policies, wide-ranging reforms in the context of becoming a member of the OECD, two successfully completed IMF-supported programs, and a strategic focus on exports and economic diversification. Growth is projected to remain strong at about 4 percent for 2025.
Inflation is showing encouraging signs of returning towards the inflation target,following decisive monetary policy easing by the BCCR. Having been near zero since mid-2024, headline inflation has begun to rise and is projected to reach the BCCR’s tolerance band in mid-2025 and the 3 percent target within a year. However, core inflation remains subdued and there are downside risks, primarily stemming from low inflation expectations becoming entrenched below the target. Upside risks could arise from possible commodity price increases and/or supply-side disruptions.
The BCCR’s forward-looking data-dependent approach has proven effective and its inflation targeting regime is working well. At the current monetary policy rate, inflation is expected to be 3 percent by 2026Q1. If the convergence of inflation to the 3 percent target weakens in the coming months, there is room for the BCCR to cut the policy rate further. Credit growth has been strong. If there are signs of excess credit growth especially associated with FX loans, macroprudential measures should be tightened to mitigate potential risks to financial stability.
It is important to further strengthen the BCCR’s autonomy, governance, and operational framework. This would be achieved by approving legislative proposals to improve BCCR governance, transparency, and accountability, and institutionalize the central bank’s de facto autonomy.
The exchange rate should be allowed to adjust more flexibly to market conditions. The BCCR accumulated US$ 920 million in international reserves during 2024, and reserve coverage is now comfortable by multiple metrics. A further accumulation of international reserves is unwarranted and would impose unnecessary costs over time. Moreover, frequent foreign exchange intervention can weaken monetary policy transmission and hinder foreign exchange market development. Concerted efforts including legal reforms are needed to deepen FX markets and strengthen the non-financial public sector’s ability to manage currency risks, reducing its reliance on the BCCR as an intermediary for FX transactions. Alongside the planned reform to restructure existing pension funds into generational funds, regulatory limits on foreign investments by local pension funds need to be updated. Adjustments to these limits should be phased in and supported by FX market development.
There is scope to further capitalize on the significant progress on financial sector oversight. Indicators of financial soundness remain comfortable, notwithstanding the resolution of two small non-bank financial institutions last year. These episodes highlighted the importance of a strong supervisory and resolution framework. The Legislative Assembly should, therefore, pass the proposed amendments to the bank resolution and deposit insurance law that would further strengthen supervisory and resolution powers and enhance the crisis management framework.
Although public debt fell to below 60 percent of GDP in 2024, the task of rebuilding fiscal space is not yet complete. The debt ratio fell in part due to some drawdown of cash balances and transfers of cash balances by decentralized and autonomous entities to the Treasury Single Account (which lowered financing needs). However, the primary surplus fell in 2024 due to temporary factors and the regrettable reductions of the vehicle property tax (marchamo) and corporate tax base. An unwinding of temporary factors is expected to help the primary balance rise to around 1½ percent of GDP this year. A higher primary balance is essential to bring debt down further, reduce interest costs, and create room for additional spending. While spending should be less than the ceiling permitted by the fiscal rule, the higher primary balance should still allow for some increases in priority areas like infrastructure, child and adult care (which will help boost female labor market participation), and investments in skills training for vulnerable groups (which will help reduce dependency on social assistance).
Tax reforms could improve the fairness and efficiency of the system while raising resources for both debt reduction and somewhat higher spending. However, revenue-increasing bills presented over the last five years that would also have increased progressivity and bolstered dynamism have not been viewed favorably by legislators. These have included proposals to reduce VAT and income tax exemptions (such as on the salario escolar and for lottery winnings) and to bring income from self-employment, salaries, and pensions under a single threshold while raising the top marginal rate. These bills warrant renewed consideration as higher revenues would allow faster increases in social and capital spending. At the same time, we are worried that various Legislative Assembly bills are reducing revenues.
Full implementation of the public employment bill and debt management reforms would improve spending quality and reduce interest costs. Legislative proposals aimed at amending the public employment law could significantly undermine progress in containing the public-sector wage bill. Institutions that have not yet fully implemented the public employment law should do so without further delay to ensure its benefits are broadened to beyond the central government. Legal reforms to permit access to international sovereign debt markets and grant the executive branch more flexibility in issuing external debt would also be valuable. There have been welcome improvements in the quality of government finance statistics, which are expected to be used in the setting of fiscal policies.
A comprehensive solution is needed to resolve the dispute between Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social (CCSS) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) over social security claims. The outstanding claim is due to an unfunded expansion of beneficiaries and CCSS’s unilateral decisions to raise the government’s contribution. Addressing this issue requires urgent improvements in the CCSS’s registry systems so as to allow for an accurate tracking of outlays and beneficiaries. Moreover, the CCSS and the MoF should clarify the scope of healthcare services and pension benefits that are currently covered by the budget while identifying additional funding sources as needed to ensure that the healthcare and pension systems are actuarially sound. Strengthening CCSS governance will be essential to ensure that any future changes to the social security system include a thorough assessment of the fiscal and labor market implications of such changes. There is also scope to enhance the accountability of the CCSS, the transparency of their operations, and the simplicity of the system, in line with international best practice. These reforms will be critical to safeguard the long-run sustainability of the social security system as the population ages.
Advancing supply-side reforms can help sustain Costa Rica’s impressive economic performance by addressing key bottlenecks to growth. To tackle skill shortages, particularly in high-tech industries, it is essential to accelerate efforts to reduce skills mismatches, align school curricula with industry needs, promote dual education (including apprenticeship programs) and bilingual education, and improve adult secondary education graduation rates. The recent reduction of the minimum contribution base for part-time workers has helped encourage formal employment but there is scope to lower the high tax wedge on labor, substituting for alternative revenue sources. Enhancing infrastructure quality and maintenance would further strengthen potential growth. In this regard, integrating climate considerations into public investment decisions is already making infrastructure more resilient against natural disasters. Given the substantial additional funding needed to upgrade infrastructure, approving and implementing the new legislation on public private partnerships is critical. Additionally, ongoing reforms to facilitate private-sector electricity provision, including diversification into non-hydroelectric renewables, will make electricity more affordable and less vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall.
The IMF team is grateful to the Costa Rican authorities and other counterparts for the productive discussions and hospitality during the mission.
Costa Rica: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
Projections
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Output and Prices
(Annual percentage change)
Real GDP
4.6
5.1
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.6
GDP deflator
6.3
-0.1
0.0
2.9
3.2
3.2
Consumer prices (period average)
8.3
0.5
-0.4
2.0
3.0
3.0
Savings and Investment
(In percent of GDP)
Gross domestic saving
14.4
13.8
14.3
14.1
14.1
14.3
Gross domestic investment
17.7
15.3
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.8
External Sector
Current account balance
-3.3
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
Trade balance
-6.7
-3.7
-2.7
-3.0
-2.8
-3.1
Financial account balance
-2.5
-0.7
-0.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.5
Foreign direct investment, net
-4.4
-4.3
-4.0
-5.3
-5.5
-5.4
Gross international reserves (millions of U.S. dollars)
8,724
13,261
14,181
15,056
16,077
16,827
External debt
50.7
43.3
38.6
35.5
33.3
30.9
Public Finances
Central government primary balance
2.1
1.6
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.7
Central government overall balance
-2.8
-3.2
-3.8
-3.0
-2.7
-2.3
Central government debt
63.0
61.1
59.8
59.4
58.4
57.1
Money and Credit
Credit to the private sector (percent change)
3.3
1.9
6.4
7.5
7.0
7.0
Monetary base 1/
8.0
7.9
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
Broad money
47.5
47.4
49.4
50.1
50.3
50.9
Memorandum Items
Nominal GDP (billions of colones) 2/
44,810
47,059
49,116
52,531
56,237
60,132
Output gap (as percent of potential GDP)
-0.3
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.2
GDP per capita (US$)
13,240
16,390
17,901
19,013
20,009
21,045
Unemployment rate
11.7
7.3
6.9
8.0
8.5
9.0
Sources: Central Bank of Costa Rica, and Fund staff estimates.
1/ Includes currency issued and required reserves.
2/ National account data reflect the revision of the benchmark year to 2017 for the chained volume measures, published in January 2021.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Friday that severe cuts to humanitarian and development funding by the United States will have devastating consequences for millions of vulnerable people worldwide.
“These cuts impact a wide range of critical programmes,” he told reporters at the UN Headquarters in New York, highlighting the potential disruption to lifesaving humanitarian work, development projects, counterterrorism efforts and initiatives to combat drug trafficking.
He expressed the UN’s gratitude “for the leading role” the US has played over decades providing overseas aid, highlighting that thanks to US taxpayers’ dollars and other donors, over 100 million people each year receive humanitarian support through UN programmes.
However, the cuts come at a time when global crises are intensifying, leaving millions at risk of hunger, disease and displacement, he said.
“The consequences will be especially devastating for vulnerable people around the world,” Mr. Guterres said.
Millions at risk
In Afghanistan, more than nine million people could lose access to health and protection services, as hundreds of mobile health teams and other critical programmes face suspension.
In northeast Syria, where 2.5 million people require humanitarian assistance, the absence of US funding will have a major impact.
The cuts have been felt already in Ukraine, where cash-based aid that supported one million people in 2024 has been suspended. In South Sudan, funding has run out for programmes assisting refugees fleeing conflict in neighbouring Sudan, creating overcrowded and unsanitary conditions at border areas.
Beyond direct humanitarian relief, the cuts will also severely affect global health and security efforts.
The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) will be forced to halt many counter-narcotics operations, including those targeting the fentanyl crisis and dramatically scale back its activities against human trafficking.
“And funding for many programmes combatting HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and cholera have stopped,” Mr. Guterres said.
A vital partnership
Mr. Guterres emphasized that US support has long been central to global humanitarian efforts.
“The generosity and compassion of the American people have not only saved lives, built peace and improved the state of the world. They have contributed to the stability and prosperity that Americans depend on,” he added.
Think again
The Secretary-General urged the US Government to reconsider the funding cuts, warning that reducing America’s humanitarian role would have far-reaching consequences, not only for those in need but also for global stability.
“Going through with these cuts will make the world less healthy, less safe, and less prosperous,” he said, stating that UN agencies stand ready to provide the necessary information and justification for its projects.
“We look forward to working with the United States in this regard,” he added.
Mr. Guterres said the UN would continue to do everything possible to provide lifesaving assistance and diversify funding sources.
“Our absolute priority remains clear. We will do everything we can to provide life-saving aid to those in urgent need,” he said.
“We remain committed to making the global humanitarian effort as efficient, accountable and innovative as possible while continuing to save lives.”
Soundcloud
Full audio of Secretary-General Guterres remarks to the press.
Approximately 60 Unifi Aviation ground handling workers based in San Jose, Calif., last week voted nearly 70 percent to join the IAM Union. Unifi Aviation waged a scorched-Earth union-busting campaign, led by the anti-worker law firm Jones Day. The workers cited low and stagnant wage rates, poor benefits and working conditions as reasons to form a union and gain a seat at the table.
Although the IAM Union filed the petition to hold a representation election in July 2024, it took six months for an election to be held due to management’s stall tactics.
“I am very proud to welcome these determined and courageous workers into aviation’s largest union, the IAM,” said IAM Air Transport Territory General Vice President Richie Johnsen. “And a special thanks to District 141 Director of Membership Services Frank Giannola, Local 1781 veteran organizer Danny Paulazzo, and the IAM Legal Department for leading the campaign to a successful conclusion.”
“District 141 salutes these Unifi workers who never backed down and took on these high-priced union-busters and sent them packing,” said IAM District 141 President Mike Klemm. “We will now continue this campaign and negotiate the dignified first contract that these workers deserve.”
Unifi Aviation employs approximately 60 workers at San Jose Mineta International Airport who perform ground handling services for Delta Air Lines. The IAM Union is also currently working to organize approximately 20,000 Delta Air Lines ramp, cargo and tower workers nationwide.
“Proud is an understatement,” said IAM District 141 Director of Membership Services Frank Giannola. “Not only do these workers endure the disrespect of low wages and poor treatment on a daily basis, but they had to withstand the lies and threats for six months because of stalling and union-busting tactics.”
Unifi Aviation operates in approximately 180 airports across the United States performing ground handling and other services for airlines.
Following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition in November 2024 (the “yellow” liberal Free Democratic Party – FDP and the “green” Grüne Party led by the “red” Social Democratic Party – SPD), citizens of Germany went to the polls on 23 February 2025 to choose a new government.
One of the ten partner universities from our European alliance CIVICA, the Hertie School (Berlin, Germany), set up a dedicated webpage to provide “data-driven analysis and expert commentary” in order to “navigate the complexities of this pivotal moment”.
Find below three videos with Hertie School experts.
Germany has voted – what comes next?
With Professor of Public Policy Anke Hassel.
How effective was social media in the German election?
With Professor of data science and Public Policy Simon Munzert.
What’s next for German family policy?
With Professor of Sociology and Family Policy expert Michaela Kreyenfeld.
Cover image caption: Paragliding, Berlin, Germany, December 2019. (credits: Christian Lue / Unsplash)
ALBUQUERQUE – A federal jury has convicted two former Jal Police Department officers of violating the civil rights of an individual, identified as John Doe in the indictment, during a July 2021 incident, after which John Doe died. The verdict came after a seven-day trial and approximately 13 hours of deliberation.
According to court documents and evidence presented at trial, on July 31, 2021, former Jal Police Officer Corey Patrick Saffell, 35, stopped John Doe for driving without headlights at the Pilot Gas Station in Jal, NM. Former Jal Police Officers Ceasar Enrique Mendoza, 28,and Robert Edward Embly,43,arrived shortly thereafter.
The situation quickly escalated when Saffell accused John Doe of presenting false identification. John Doe was subsequently handcuffed and forced into a small cage in Saffell’s K9 unit, where an aggressive dog was barking. When John Doe struggled to enter the small space, Mendoza deployed his taser on John Doe 13 times while Saffell yelled at him to keep tasing John Doe. The men then moved John Doe to Embly’s patrol car with a full backseat, where he was tased a 14th time.
At no point during the incident did John Doe, who was handcuffed throughout the entire encounter, attempt to flee, make threats or aggressive statements, or act combatively to Saffell, Mendoza, or Embly. After placing John Doe in the back of Embly’s unit, none of the officers checked on John Doe or monitored him, as they were trained to do after deploying their taser on him.
At the jail, the men dragged John Doe’s limp, unconscious body into a cell and laid him on his stomach while still handcuffed. Despite John Doe’s deteriorating condition, including appearing unconscious and having urinated on himself, the men did not seek medical attention. The first time any of the officers requested medical attention for John Doe was only after it was determined John Doe stopped breathing and had no pulse, at which time the officers finally commenced life-saving measures. John Doe was pronounced dead at 1:15 a.m. on July 31, 2021.
Mendoza and Embly were convicted on three counts of deprivation of rights under color of law each, specifically use of unreasonable force, failure to intervene, and deliberate indifference to John Doe’s serious medical need.
Following the verdict, the Court ordered that Mendoza and Embly remain on conditions of release pending sentencing, which has not been scheduled. At sentencing, Mendoza and Embly each face up to 10 years in prison per count of conviction.
On September 10, 2024, Saffell pled guilty to three counts of deprivation of rights under color of law, specifically unlawful arrest, failure to intervene, and deliberate indifference to serious medical needs. At sentencing, Saffell faces up to 10 years in prison per count of conviction. Saffell remains on conditions of release pending sentencing, which has not been set.
Acting U.S. Attorney Holland S. Kastrin and Raul Bujanda, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI Albuquerque Field Office, made the announcement today.
The Las Cruces Resident Agency of the FBI Albuquerque Field Office investigated this case with assistance from the Hobbs Police Department, Carlsbad Police Department, Lea County Sheriff’s Office, Jal Police Department, and New Mexico State Police. Assistant U.S. Attorneys Matilda McCarthy Villalobos and Marisa A. Ong are prosecuting the case.
Montgomery, Ala. – On February 27, 2025, a federal judge sentenced 46-year-old Vanshun Traywick, a resident of Montgomery, Alabama, to 288 months in prison following his conviction on drug conspiracy charges, announced Acting United States Attorney Kevin Davidson.
According to court records and evidence presented during Traywick’s trial, in 2020, law enforcement began an investigation related to a suspected drug-trafficking operation bringing cocaine from Texas to Montgomery. The investigation revealed that Traywick ordered kilogram quantities of cocaine from a co-conspirator, 45-year-old Michael Golden, from Houston, Texas. The cocaine would be delivered to Montgomery by another co-conspirator, Rufus Flanagan, 57, also from Houston. On October 20, 2020, law enforcement in Montgomery conducted a traffic stop of a semi-truck driven by Flanagan. Upon searching the vehicle, officers found a bag with approximately one kilogram of cocaine inside.
In addition to arranging for the purchase of large quantities of cocaine from Golden, the investigation also revealed that, on October 13, 2020, Traywick purchased two ounces of cocaine from another co-conspirator, 51-year-old Deneco Nettles, also from Montgomery. The jury found Traywick guilty on two counts of conspiracy to distribute cocaine after a trial that concluded on September 25, 2024.
Last year, Golden, Flanagan, and Nettles all pleaded guilty to federal drug conspiracy charges. On June 18, 2024, Nettles received a sentence of 18 months in prison. In December of 2024, Flanagan received a 27-month sentence. Golden’s sentencing hearing is scheduled for April 8, 2025.
This case was part of an Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Forces (OCDETF) investigation. OCDETF identifies, disrupts, and dismantles the highest-level drug traffickers, money launderers, gangs, and transnational criminal organizations that threaten the United States by using a prosecutor-led, intelligence-driven, multi-agency approach that leverages the strengths of federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies against criminal networks.
The Drug Enforcement Administration, Alabama Law Enforcement Agency, and Montgomery Police Department investigated this case. Assistant United States Attorneys Chelsea Wilson, Mark E. Andreu, and Justin L. Jones prosecuted the case.
Fort Myers, FL – Acting United States Attorney Sara C. Sweeney announces that Antowan Jabaar Cain (45, Clewiston) has pleaded guilty to distribution of methamphetamine and possession of a firearm during and in relation to a drug trafficking crime. Cain faces a minimum penalty of 5 years, up to 40 years, in federal prison for distributing methamphetamine. For the firearm offense, Cain faces a minimum of 5 years, up to life imprisonment, consecutive to the sentence imposed for the distribution offense. He has also agreed to forfeit the firearm used in the offense.
According to the plea agreement, on December 12, 2024, Cain sold a firearm and methamphetamine in Hendry County.
This case was investigated by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. It is being prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Mark Morgan.
This case is part of Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN), a program bringing together all levels of law enforcement and the communities they serve to reduce violent crime and gun violence, and to make our neighborhoods safer for everyone. On May 26, 2021, the Department launched a violent crime reduction strategy strengthening PSN based on these core principles: fostering trust and legitimacy in our communities, supporting community-based organizations that help prevent violence from occurring in the first place, setting focused and strategic enforcement priorities, and measuring the results.
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) are committed to intercepting and investigating smuggling attempts at our border and disrupting organized crime.
The CBSA and RCMP announced today that an arrest has been made in Mississauga, Ontario for possession and trafficking of narcotics, including Nitazenes. Nitazenes are a class of synthetic opioid which can be up to 20 times more potent than Fentanyl. They are used to “cut” street drugs in Canada, and their high potency can increase the risk of overdose, particularly when mixed with other substances.
CBSA border services officers at the international mail and cargo processing facilities in Mississauga, ON, and Vancouver, BC, seized multiple shipments of synthetic opioids arriving from China and destined to an address in Mississauga. Officers also intercepted additional shipments intended for international export. Using various investigative techniques, the CBSA’s Greater Toronto Area Region’s Intelligence section provided the RCMP with the evidence required to obtain a search and arrest warrant.
On January 3, 2025, the RCMP’s Transnational Serious & Organized Crime seized over 5 kg of narcotics, drug paraphernalia, more than $120,000 CAD in cash and other proceeds of crime—including luxury watches and precious metals—from the accused’s residence in Mississauga.
As a result, the RCMP arrested Matthew Phan (36 years-old) of Mississauga, and charged him with:
Trafficking a Schedule I controlled substance to wit: Etonitazene, its salts, derivatives, isomers and analogues and salts of derivatives, isomers and analogues contrary to Section5(1) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
Trafficking a Schedule 4 controlled substance to wit: Fencamfamine, its salts, derivatives, isomers and analogues and salts of derivatives, isomers and analogues contrary to Section5(1) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
Possession of a Schedule I controlled substance for the purpose of trafficking to wit: Etonitazene, its salts, derivatives, isomers and analogues and salts of derivatives, isomers and analogues contrary to Section 5(2) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
Possession of a Schedule I controlled substance for the purpose of trafficking to wit: MDMA, contrary to Section 5(2) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
Possession of a Schedule I controlled substance for the purpose of trafficking to wit: methamphetamine, contrary to Section 5(2) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
Possession of a Schedule 4 controlled substance for the purpose of trafficking to wit: Fencamfamine, its salts, derivatives, isomers and analogues and salts of derivatives, isomers and analogues contrary to Section 5(2) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
Unlawful attempt to export a Schedule 1 controlled substance to wit: Etonitazene, its salts, derivatives, isomers and analogues and salts of derivatives, isomers and analogues contrary to Section 6(1) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
Unlawful attempt to export a Schedule 4 controlled substance to wit: Fencamfamine, its salts, derivatives, isomers and analogues and salts of derivatives, isomers and analogues contrary to Section 6(1) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act.
Unlawful possession property obtained by crime, contrary to Section 354(1) of the Criminal Code.
Phan has not received bail and remains in custody.
Quotes
“This opioid seizure is yet another example of the effective partnership between the CBSA and the RCMP in stopping cross-border drug trafficking. Nitazenes pose a significant threat to public health, and these joint investigations and resulting enforcement actions keep our communities safe, both in Canada and abroad.” – The Honourable David J. McGuinty, Minister of Public Safety
“Nitazenes are a lethal substance that pose a significant risk to the safety of Canadians, and the CBSA is committed to securing Canada’s border from drug threats like this one. In collaboration with the RCMP, our officers and investigators work diligently to keep these synthetic opioids off our streets. The CBSA executed over 3,000 narcotic seizures in the Greater Toronto Area in 2024, keeping over 10,000 kg of drugs out of our communities.” – Lisa Janes, Regional Director General, Greater Toronto Area Region, Canada Border Services Agency
“This collaboration between RCMP Federal Police and the CBSA has resulted in a rapid response to protect the safety of our communities. We are very concerned that synthetic opioids are making their way onto our streets. This extremely toxic substance severely amplifies the risk of accidental overdose for all drug users. The RCMP is committed to battling transnational organized crime at all levels in Ontario, Canada and abroad.” – Inspector Nicole Noonan, Officer in charge of Federal Policing – Integrated Response & Organized Crime, Royal Canadian Mounted Police
As part of Canada’s Border Plan, the CBSA has launched Operation Blizzard, a targeted, cross-country initiative aimed at intercepting illegal contraband arriving and leaving Canada, with a focus on fentanyl and other synthetic narcotics.
From December 9, 2024 to January 18, 2025, the Canadian Integrated Response to Organized Crime (CIROC) Committee composed of Federal, Provincial and Municipal law enforcement agencies, conducted a national sprint aimed at disrupting illegal fentanyl production and distribution in Canada.
The RCMP and the CBSA work closely in an investigative capacity, along with other domestic and international law enforcement partners, to combat the impact that cross border criminal activity is having on our communities.
The CBSA screens goods, including international mail and courier items, coming into Canada and examines more closely those that may pose a threat to the safety of Canadians.
The RCMP works with the CBSA to protect Canada from inbound and outbound criminal threats through criminal investigations and prosecutions related to narcotic smuggling.
Organized crime affects the daily lives of Canadians in many ways that you may not be aware of. It can affect the taxes you pay (tax revenue losses from contraband tobacco and alcohol); your car insurance premiums (higher auto insurance due to car thefts by organized crime rings); your banking fees (banks recovering fraud costs); even your safety and health (drug-related violence, faulty counterfeit goods and currency). In terms of economic-related crimes (e.g. credit and debit card fraud), it is estimated that organized crime costs Canadians $5 billion every year.
If you have any information related to smuggling, drug importation, trafficking, or possession, or wish to report other criminality, you can contact:
The RCMP Toronto West Detachment at 1-905-876-9500
Ontario RCMP at 1-800-387-0020
Anonymously through Crime Stoppers at 1-800-222-8477 (TIPS), at any time.
To report suspicious cross border activities, you can contact the CBSA by using the confidential Border Watch Line online or toll free at 1888 502 9060