Source: The Conversation – UK – By Malvika Gupta, DPhil Candidate in the Department of International Development, University of Oxford
Ecuador’s presidential election will go to a second round after the current president, Daniel Noboa, and the candidate for the left-wing Revolución Ciudadana (RC) party, Luisa González, received nearly identical shares of the vote.
After more than three-quarters of the ballots had been counted, Noboa led the 16 candidates with 44.6% of the vote – short of the 50% needed to win outright. González trailed with 44.02%. A run-off to decide the winner is scheduled to take place in April.
The election, which saw voters head to the polls for the third time in four years, took place against the backdrop of violence. Under Noboa’s two predecessors, who like him entered office with a neoliberal agenda, Ecuador became a narco-trafficking hub.
It now has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. This fact was laid bare by the 2023 assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, one of the candidates in the snap presidential election called that year when the former president, Guillermo Lasso, dissolved congress in an attempt to escape impeachment.
Noboa defeated González in an October 2023 runoff vote to see out Lasso’s term and then declared an “internal armed conflict” against criminal groups. He believed the only way to stop his country becoming a “narco-state” was with a hardline crackdown on organised crime groups.
But the militarisation of Ecuador’s streets and prisons has led to serious human rights violations by security forces. In late 2024, for example, four Afro-Ecuadorian boys died in the coastal town of Guayaquil after being detained by the military. Human rights groups say this case has prompted a shift in public attitudes to Noboa’s war on the gangs.
The rampant violence has been compounded by an energy crisis. Rolling blackouts instigated by a severe drought have raised questions about under-investment in Ecuador’s energy sector.
A raid on the Mexican embassy in capital city Quito in April 2024 led to the detention of Ecuador’s fugitive former vice-president Jorge Glas. This has prompted concern about Noboa’s lackadaisical attitude towards international law.
The result of the latest election was narrower than many polls had predicted. This suggests that the second round will be hard to call. But there are signs that the Ecuadorian left-wing, which has been divided for more than a decade, could be set to rally around González’s candidacy.
A key reason for the spate of neoliberal presidents in Ecuador is the division between those supportive of the country’s former leftist leader, Rafael Correa, who led the country from 2007 to 2017, and those who oppose him.
Indigenous voters, who make up roughly one-quarter of Ecuador’s electorate, helped Correa first come to power. And his government was successful in reducing extreme poverty and economic inequality.
But conflict soon arose over his policies to fund social services through the extraction of natural resources. In 2012, Correa accused the country’s main Indigenous organisation, Conaie, of trying to destabilise Ecuador by protesting against mining plans.
Correa also alienated Ecuador’s Indigenous movement by dismantling their hard-won intercultural bilingual education system in favour of mining revenue-funded education, as well as attempting to take control of water resources away from individual communities and give it to a new state agency.
In response to protests, Correa’s government prosecuted Indigenous leaders, saying they were saboteurs and terrorists. So, since 2017, many Indigenous voters have combined with the right-wing to keep RC from power. The RC candidate has lost the last two elections despite entering the second round because they did not have the Indigenous vote.
To break this impasse, RC participated in a dialogue with various left-wing parties, including the Indigenous-aligned Pachakutik political movement, to forge a unified electoral alliance for the 2025 election. These efforts did not result in a joint presidential bid. But they did lead to two favourable outcomes for the Ecuadorian left-wing.
RC and Pachakutik agreed a pact not to attack each other or the smaller left-wing candidates during the election campaign. And they also pledged to consider supporting the candidate of the other party should they reach the second round.
But this will, among other things, depend on how they manage their divergent positions on extractivism. RC sees the extraction of natural resources as one of the main economic pathways for Ecuador, while Pachakutik remains staunchly opposed.
González has said she wants to accelerate the transition to clean energy, but has also recognised the importance of oil and gas to Ecuador. She supported the “no” vote during the 2023 referendum where Ecuadorians voted to halt oil drilling in the Yasuní national park, arguing that exploration should continue in the area.
Pachakutik, on the other hand, seeks a post-extractive economic transition. The campaign of Pachakutik’s presidential candidate, Leonidas Iza, proposed boosting national agricultural and industrial production as an alternative to extractive capitalism. Iza envisions an economy based on harmony between humans and nature.
A plurinational tide?
Another area where RC and Pachakutik diverge is in their vision of plurinationality. Ecuador became the first country in the world to define itself as “plurinational” in 2008, adopting a new constitution that acknowledged the rights of nature as well as strengthening rights for Ecuador’s Indigenous peoples and other marginalised groups.
But, since then, the application of plurinationalism has faced major obstacles – not least because of the commitment of successive governments to resource extraction.
Pachakutik’s plurinational ethos was reflected in Iza’s election campaign. It featured images of a poncho-sporting Amazonian capybara threatened by extractivism, as well as rap songs of support by Afro-Ecuadorians living in coastal city slums. Plurinationalism was absent from – or certainly not central to – the electoral campaigns of most other candidates.
Ecuador’s Indigenous movement will probably determine who becomes Ecuador’s next president. Whether or not RC will now take plurinationalism seriously and forge an alliance with Pachakutik remains to be seen.
Malvika Gupta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
– ref. Ecuador election heads to runoff – Indigenous movement now holds key to the outcome – https://theconversation.com/ecuador-election-heads-to-runoff-indigenous-movement-now-holds-key-to-the-outcome-248974
