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Category: Universities

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Do the US public support Trump bombing Iran? Here’s what the data shows

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

    Political scientists first identified a phenomenon known as the “rally round the flag” effect in the 1970s . This refers to the tendency for the US public to increase their support for a president when the county becomes involved in conflicts abroad. After the massive air strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, the question is whether the US bombing missions will boost support for Donald Trump.

    An Economist/YouGov poll conducted between June 19 and June 23 suggests that it is unlikely that the Trump administration will experience a “rally round the flag” event after the US air strikes on June 22.

    The survey asked: “Do you think the U.S. military should or should not bomb Iranian nuclear facilities?” Some of those surveyed would have answered before the raids took place, while others were responding afterwards.

    Donald Trump makes a public announcement of the US air strikes on Iran.

    Altogether around 29% supported the bombing, with 46% opposed and 25% not sure. The chart identifies big differences between groups in their opinions about the raid though. There’s a considerable gender divide. with 38% of men supporting the action (44% opposed), but only 21% of women in favour (48% opposed).

    In relation to ethnicity, 34% of white people supported it and 42% opposed the raid. In contrast black people were much more likely to oppose (66%), with just 7% supportive. Among Hispanics 26% supported and 43% opposed the bombing.

    There was also a wide divide in opinions among age groups, with only 15% of those aged between 18 to 29 supporting the air strikes and 59% opposing them. This was the highest level of opposition from any age group. This chimes with a general lack of support for Trump from this generation, with a massive 70% saying, in the same poll, that the country was heading in the wrong direction.

    In contrast, those over the age of 65 were more in favour, with 42% supporting the military action and 37% opposing. This was the only age group in which supporters outnumbered opponents.



    Read more:
    Will Trump’s high-risk Iran strategy pay dividends at home if the peace deal holds?

    The group most opposed to the bombings were those with annual incomes over US$100,000 (£72,813), with 53% opposing and only 25% supporting. The lowest income group (those earning less than US$50,000) and middle income group (earning more than US$50,000 and less than US$100,000) had very similar views, with 30% and 31% supporting the attack respectively, and 45% and 46% opposing it.

    Should the US military bomb Iranian nuclear facilities?


    Author’s graph based on Economist/YouGov data, CC BY-ND

    Perhaps the most interesting statistic is what those who voted for Trump in the presidential election last year thought about the president’s decision to attack Iran. Around half, 51%, of them supported the bombing, with 24% opposed. In the case of Harris voters only 10% supported the action while 70% opposed it.

    We can get some idea of what prompts these responses by probing into the overall confidence the American people currently have in the Trump administration. There has been a gradual decline in the president’s job approval ratings, currently about 40% approve and 54% disapprove of his performance in the job. This compares with 43% approving and 51% disapproving in the Economist/YouGov survey published a month ago on May 19. Back on March 20, 48% of Americans approved of his job performance, while 49% disapproved.

    When asked if they have a favourable or unfavourable view of Trump, 41% say the former and 54% the latter. This has also become slightly more negative since the Economist’s survey in May, when 44% felt favourably and 53% unfavourably.

    Worries about a world war

    It appears than many Americans are becoming afraid for the future of their country’s role in a war. Respondents were asked if they thought there was a greater or lesser chance of a world war compared with five years ago. Around 58% thought the chances were greater, compared with only 11% who thought they were lower.

    A similar question asked if they thought the chances of a nuclear war were greater or lesser than five years ago. This produced a rather similar set of responses. No less than 52% thought there was a greater chance with only 12% thinking that the chances were lower.

    The final and in many ways the most striking responses of all related to the question: Do you think that things in this country today are under control or out of control? A surprising 65% thought they were out of control and only 21% thought the opposite. This suggests that Trump’s erratic behaviour has started to spook Americans on a large scale, since they do not know, in line with national leaders around the world, what he will do next.

    Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC

    – ref. Do the US public support Trump bombing Iran? Here’s what the data shows – https://theconversation.com/do-the-us-public-support-trump-bombing-iran-heres-what-the-data-shows-259841

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Thimerosal discouraged in US flu vaccines, breaking with WHO guidance

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Edward Beamer, Lecturer, Pharmacology, Sheffield Hallam University

    A federal vaccine panel, recently reshaped by US health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has voted to discourage the use of flu vaccines containing thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative. The decision marks a dramatic shift in vaccine policy, as thimerosal has long been considered safe by health agencies worldwide, with its use already limited to a few multi-dose flu shots.

    RFK Jr. has long linked thimerosal to autism – a connection that extensive scientific research has thoroughly debunked.

    Thimerosal is an organic chemical containing mercury, used as a preservative in vaccines since the 1930s. Its effect comes from the mercury that disrupts the function of enzymes in microbes, such as bacteria and fungi. This prevents contamination of vaccines while they are stored in vials. Mercury, however, is also well-known as a potent toxin acting on cells the brain.

    Much of mercury’s toxicity to brain cells stems from the same attributes that make thimerosal such a useful preservative. It disrupts the basic biological function of cells by changing the structure of proteins and enzymes.

    In the brain, this can lead neurons to become excessively active, can impair the way they use energy, it can increase inflammation and lead to the death of neurons. While mercury poisoning can damage brain function in adults, babies are even more vulnerable.

    People have long understood that mercury is toxic. But in the latter half of the 20th century, scientists discovered that industrial mercury entered rivers and seas, accumulating in the tissues of fish and shellfish. The neurological consequences of consuming too much contaminated seafood could be severe. This led environmental scientists to determine safe levels of mercury exposure.

    Anxiety about mercury in vaccines intensified when it was noticed that some children receiving multiple vaccines could exceed established safety limits for mercury exposure. These limits were based on environmental toxicity studies. How mercury affects the brain, though, depends very much on the chemical form in which it is ingested.

    In the 20th century, scientists discovered that mercury accumulates in the fish that we eat.
    J nel/Shutterstock.com

    Methylmercury v ethylmercury

    The form of mercury that contaminates the environment as a consequence of industrial processes is methylmercury. The form that is part of thimerosal is ethylmercury.

    The structure of these molecules differs in subtle but important ways. Methylmercury has one more carbon atom and two more hydrogen atoms than ethylmercury. These small differences significantly affect how each compound behaves in the body, particularly, in how easily they dissolve in fats.

    Fat solubility is a key consideration in pharmacokinetics – the science of how drugs and other molecules travel through the body. Briefly, because cell membranes are made of fatty substances, a molecule’s ability to dissolve in fats strongly influences how it crosses these membranes and moves through the body.

    It affects how a molecule is absorbed into the blood, how it is distributed to different tissues, how it is broken down by the body into other chemicals and how it is excreted.

    Methylmercury from environmental contamination is more fat-soluble than ethylmercury from thimerosal. This means that it accumulates more easily in tissues, and is excreted from the body more slowly.

    It also means that it can more easily cross into the brain and accumulate at greater concentrations for longer. For this reason, the safety guidelines that were established for methylmercury were unlikely to accurately predict the safety of ethylmercury.

    Global policy shift amid public fear

    Nevertheless, concerns about vaccine hesitancy, rising autism diagnoses and fears of a potential link to childhood vaccines led to thimerosal being almost entirely removed from childhood vaccines in the US by 2001 and in the UK between 2003 and 2005.

    Beyond biological considerations, policymakers were also responding to concerns about how vaccine fears could undermine immunisation efforts and fuel the spread of infectious diseases.

    Denmark, which removed thimerosal from childhood vaccines in 1992, provided an early opportunity to study the issue. Researchers compared the rates of autism before and after thimerosal’s removal as well as compared with similar countries still using it. Several large studies demonstrated conclusively that thimerosal was not causing autism or neurodevelopmental harm.

    Despite the overwhelming evidence that thimerosal is safe, it is no longer widely used in childhood vaccines in high-income countries, replaced by preservative-free vaccines, which must be stored as a single dose per vial.

    Storing multiple doses of a vaccine in the same vial, however, is still an extremely useful approach in resource-limited settings, in pandemics and where diseases require rapid, large-scale vaccination campaigns – common with influenza.

    International health bodies, including the World Health Organization, continue to support thimerosal’s use. They emphasise that the benefits of immunisation far outweigh the theoretical risks from low-dose ethylmercury exposure.

    Edward Beamer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Thimerosal discouraged in US flu vaccines, breaking with WHO guidance – https://theconversation.com/thimerosal-discouraged-in-us-flu-vaccines-breaking-with-who-guidance-259609

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How strawberries and cream were a rare and exciting treat for Victorians – and then became a Wimbledon icon

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rebecca Earle, Professor of History, University of Warwick

    Strawberries and Cream by Raphaelle Peale (1816). National Gallery of Art

    Wimbledon is all about strawberries and cream (and of course tennis). The club itself describes strawberries and cream as “a true icon of The Championships”.

    While a meal at one of the club’s restaurants can set you back £130 or more, a bowl of the iconic dish is a modest £2.70 (up from £2.50 in 2024 – the first price rise in 15 years). In 2024 visitors munched their way through nearly 2 million berries.

    Strawberries and cream has a long association with Wimbledon. Even before lawn tennis was added to its activities, the All England Croquet Club (now the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club) was serving strawberries and cream to visitors. They would have expected no less. Across Victorian Britain, strawberries and cream was a staple of garden parties of all sorts. Private affairs, political fundraisers and county cricket matches all typically served the dish.

    Alongside string bands and games of lawn tennis, strawberries and cream were among the pleasures that Victorians expected to encounter at a fête or garden party. As a result, one statistician wrote in the Dundee Evening Telegraph in 1889, Londoners alone consumed 12 million berries a day over the summer. At that rate, he explained, if strawberries were available year-round, Britons would spend 24 times more on strawberries than on missionary work, and twice as much as on education.

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    But of course strawberries and cream were not available year-round. They were a delightful treat of the summer and the delicate berries did not last. Victorian newspapers, such as the Illustrated London News, complained that even the fruits on sale in London were a sad, squashed travesty of those eaten in the countryside, to say nothing of London’s cream, which might have been watered down.

    Wimbledon’s lawn tennis championships were held in late June or early July – in the midst, in other words, of strawberry season.

    Eating strawberries and cream had long been a distinctly seasonal pleasure. Seventeenth-century menu plans for elegant banquets offered strawberries, either with cream or steeped (rather deliciously, and I recommend you try this) in rose water, white wine, and sugar – as a suitable dish for the month of June.

    Strawberries and Cream by Robert Gemmell Hutchison (1855–1936).
    National Galleries of Scotland, CC BY-NC

    They were, in the view of the 17th-century gardener John Parkinson, “a cooling and pleasant dish in the hot summer season”. They were, in short, a summer food. That was still the case in the 1870s, when the Wimbledon tennis championship was established.

    This changed dramatically with the invention of mechanical refrigeration. From the late 19th century, new technologies enabled the global movement of chilled and frozen foods across vast oceans and spaces.

    Domestic ice-boxes and refrigerators followed. These modern devices were hailed as freeing us from the tyranny of seasons. As the Ladies Home Journal magazine proclaimed triumphantly in 1929: “Refrigeration wipes out seasons and distances … We grow perishable products in the regions best suited to them instead of being forced to stick close to the large markets.” Eating seasonally, or locally, was a tiresome constraint and it was liberating to be able to enjoy foods at whatever time of year we desired.

    As a result, points out historian Susan Friedberg, our concept of “freshness” was transformed. Consumers “stopped expecting fresh food to be just-picked or just-caught or just-killed. Instead, they expected to find and keep it in the refrigerator.”

    Strawberries and cream being enjoyed at Wimbledon.
    bonchan/Shutterstock

    Today, when we can buy strawberries year round, we have largely lost the excitement that used to accompany advent of the strawberry season. Colour supplements and supermarket magazines do their best to drum up some enthusiasm for British strawberries, but we are far from the days when poets could rhapsodise about dairy maids “dreaming of their strawberries and cream” in the month of May.

    Strawberries and cream, once a “rare service” enjoyed in the short months from late April to early July, are now a season-less staple, available virtually year round from the global networks of commercial growers who supply Britain’s food. The special buzz about Wimbledon’s iconic dish of strawberries and cream is a glimpse into an earlier time, and reminds us that it was not always so.

    Rebecca Earle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How strawberries and cream were a rare and exciting treat for Victorians – and then became a Wimbledon icon – https://theconversation.com/how-strawberries-and-cream-were-a-rare-and-exciting-treat-for-victorians-and-then-became-a-wimbledon-icon-258629

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Sixteenth-century tennis was a dangerous sport played with balls covered in wool

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Penny Roberts, Professor of Early Modern European History, University of Warwick

    Portrait of a young boy with a paletta and a ball, late 16th century, artist unknown. Wiki Commons/Canva

    In 1570, a Frenchman was arrested for smuggling clandestine correspondence between France and England. A passing comment in his interrogation document reveals that he also happened to be carrying a leather bag “in which there were three or four dozen balls of wool for playing tennis”.

    The French term used was jeu de paume. This sport was played with the hand (palm), often gloved, rather than a racquet. This developed into the game that in English we usually refer to as “real tennis” (a different beast to the lawn tennis played at Wimbledon).

    The interrogator believed that this cheap merchandise was simply a ruse for the man’s true purpose of communicating with Huguenot exiles. I have written a book, Huguenot Networks, based on this interrogation document, which will be published by Cambridge University Press later this year. But, as a historian, I was intrigued by both the number and makeup of the goods he was transporting. The wool, if wrapped tightly, could certainly have made these balls bouncy.

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    By chance, I encountered similar objects in a small display in the Palazzo Te in Mantua in Italy. These balls had apparently been retrieved from the palace roof and several others had come from a nearby church. They were variously made of leather, cloth and string rather than wool, probably stuffed with earth or animal hair. Just like the handmade “real tennis” balls of today, they were harder and more variable in size than regular tennis balls, and usually not so colourful, although sometimes having a simple painted design on the outside.

    Today, “real tennis” is known as the “sport of kings”, praised for testing agility and athletic prowess. The most famous court in England is at Hampton Court, but many others survive in the UK. For instance, there is one down the road from where I work at the University of Warwick, at Moreton Morrell in Warwickshire.

    Louis X of France popularised the sport.
    Gallica

    In the 16th century, real tennis attracted gamblers, meaning it became a later target for Puritans. Anne Boleyn is said to have placed a wager on a match she was watching on the day of her arrest. And Henry VIII, fittingly, supposedly played a match on the day Boleyn was executed.

    And if there is any doubt about how dangerous tennis could be, several royal deaths in France are attributed to it. King Louis X of France was a keen player of jeu de paume. He was the first ruler to order enclosed indoor courts to be constructed. This later became popular across Europe.

    In June 1316, after a particularly exhausting game, Louis X is said to have drunk a large quantity of chilled wine and soon afterwards died – probably of pleurisy, although there was some suspicion of poisoning.

    Likewise, in August 1536, the death of the 18-year-old dauphin, eldest son of Francis I, was blamed on his Italian secretary, the Count of Montecuccoli, who had brought him a glass of cold water after a match. The count was subsequently executed despite a post-mortem suggesting that the prince had died of natural causes.

    By the 16th century, there were two courts at the Louvre and many more around the city of Paris as well as at other royal residences. Ambassadors’ accounts describe frequent games between high-ranking courtiers and the king which could sometimes result in injury, especially if struck by one of the hard balls.

    Our man carrying many tennis balls in 1570 had probably spotted a lucrative opportunity in response to rising demand. The French game had become increasingly popular in England under the Tudors.

    By the Tudor period, no self-respecting European court was without its own purpose-built tennis courts where monarchs and their entourages tested their prowess and skill. They often did so before ambassadors, who could report back to their own rulers, making it a truly competitive international sport.

    Thankfully, today’s game has far fewer dangers – there’s no risk of being hit by a ball full of earth or the fear of mortal retribution after beating an exhausted high-ranking opponent.

    This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

    Penny Roberts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sixteenth-century tennis was a dangerous sport played with balls covered in wool – https://theconversation.com/sixteenth-century-tennis-was-a-dangerous-sport-played-with-balls-covered-in-wool-255643

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Hurricane Helene set up future disasters, from landslides to flooding – cascading hazards like these are upending risk models

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Hurricane Helene set up future disasters, from landslides to flooding – cascading hazards like these are upending risk models – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-helene-set-up-future-disasters-from-landslides-to-flooding-cascading-hazards-like-these-are-upending-risk-models-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Checking in on New England’s fishing industry 25 Years after ‘The Perfect Storm’ hit movie theaters

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Stephanie Otts, Director of National Sea Grant Law Center, University of Mississippi

    Filming ‘The Perfect Storm’ in Gloucester Harbor, Mass.
     The Salem News Historic Photograph Collection, Salem State University Archives and Special Collections, CC BY

    Twenty-five years ago, “The Perfect Storm” roared into movie theaters. The disaster flick, starring George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg, was a riveting, fictionalized account of commercial swordfishing in New England and a crew who went down in a violent storm.

    The anniversary of the film’s release, on June 30, 2000, provides an opportunity to reflect on the real-life changes to New England’s commercial fishing industry.

    Fishing was once more open to all

    In the true story behind the movie, six men lost their lives in late October 1991 when the commercial swordfishing vessel Andrea Gail disappeared in a fierce storm in the North Atlantic as it was headed home to Gloucester, Massachusetts.

    At the time, and until very recently, almost all commercial fisheries were open access, meaning there were no restrictions on who could fish.

    There were permit requirements and regulations about where, when and how you could fish, but anyone with the means to purchase a boat and associated permits, gear, bait and fuel could enter the fishery. Eight regional councils established under a 1976 federal law to manage fisheries around the U.S. determined how many fish could be harvested prior to the start of each fishing season.

    Fishing has been an integral part of coastal New England culture since its towns were established. In this 1899 photo, a New England community weighs and packs mackerel.
    Charles Stevenson/Freshwater and Marine Image Bank

    Fishing started when the season opened and continued until the catch limit was reached. In some fisheries, this resulted in a “race to the fish” or a “derby,” where vessels competed aggressively to harvest the available catch in short amounts of time. The limit could be reached in a single day, as happened in the Pacific halibut fishery in the late 1980s.

    By the 1990s, however, open access systems were coming under increased criticism from economists as concerns about overfishing rose.

    The fish catch peaked in New England in 1987 and would remain far above what the fish population could sustain for two more decades. Years of overfishing led to the collapse of fish stocks, including North Atlantic cod in 1992 and Pacific sardine in 2015.

    As populations declined, managers responded by cutting catch limits to allow more fish to survive and reproduce. Fishing seasons were shortened, as it took less time for the fleets to harvest the allowed catch. It became increasingly hard for fishermen to catch enough fish to earn a living.

    Saving fisheries changed the industry

    In the early 2000s, as these economic and environmental challenges grew, fisheries managers started limiting access. Instead of allowing anyone to fish, only vessels or individuals meeting certain eligibility requirements would have the right to fish.

    The most common method of limiting access in the U.S. is through limited entry permits, initially awarded to individuals or vessels based on previous participation or success in the fishery. Another approach is to assign individual harvest quotas or “catch shares” to permit holders, limiting how much each boat can bring in.

    In 2007, Congress amended the 1976 Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act to promote the use of limited access programs in U.S. fisheries.

    Ships in the fleet out of New Bedford, Mass.
    Henry Zbyszynski/Flickr, CC BY

    Today, limited access is common, and there are positive signs that the management change is helping achieve the law’s environmental goal of preventing overfishing. Since 2000, the populations of 50 major fishing stocks have been rebuilt, meaning they have recovered to a level that can once again support fishing.

    I’ve been following the changes as a lawyer focused on ocean and coastal issues, and I see much work still to be done.

    Forty fish stocks are currently being managed under rebuilding plans that limit catch to allow the stock to grow, including Atlantic cod, which has struggled to recover due to a complex combination of factors, including climatic changes.

    The lingering effect on communities today

    While many fish stocks have recovered, the effort came at an economic cost to many individual fishermen. The limited-access Northeast groundfish fishery, which includes Atlantic cod, haddock and flounder, shed nearly 800 crew positions between 2007 and 2015.

    The loss of jobs and revenue from fishing impacts individual family income and relationships, strains other businesses in fishing communities, and affects those communities’ overall identity and resilience, as illustrated by a recent economic snapshot of the Alaska seafood industry.

    When original limited-access permit holders leave the business – for economic, personal or other reasons – their permits are either terminated or sold to other eligible permit holders, leading to fewer active vessels in the fleet. As a result, the number of vessels fishing for groundfish has declined from 719 in 2007 to 194 in 2023, meaning fewer jobs.

    A fisherman unloads a portion of his catch for the day of 300 pounds of groundfish, including flounder, in January 2006 in Gloucester, Mass.
    AP Photo/Lisa Poole

    Because of their scarcity, limited-access permits can cost upward of US$500,000, which is often beyond the financial means of a small businesses or a young person seeking to enter the industry. The high prices may also lead retiring fishermen to sell their permits, as opposed to passing them along with the vessels to the next generation.

    These economic forces have significantly altered the fishing industry, leading to more corporate and investor ownership, rather than the family-owned operations that were more common in the Andrea Gail’s time.

    Similar to the experience of small family farms, fishing captains and crews are being pushed into corporate arrangements that reduce their autonomy and revenues.

    Consolidation can threaten the future of entire fleets, as New Bedford, Massachusetts, saw when Blue Harvest Fisheries, backed by a private equity firm, bought up vessels and other assets and then declared bankruptcy a few years later, leaving a smaller fleet and some local business and fishermen unpaid for their work. A company with local connections bought eight vessels from Blue Harvest along with 48 state and federal permits the company held.

    New challenges and unchanging risks

    While there are signs of recovery for New England’s fisheries, challenges continue.

    Warming water temperatures have shifted the distribution of some species, affecting where and when fish are harvested. For example, lobsters have moved north toward Canada. When vessels need to travel farther to find fish, that increases fuel and supply costs and time away from home.

    Fisheries managers will need to continue to adapt to keep New England’s fisheries healthy and productive.

    One thing that, unfortunately, hasn’t changed is the dangerous nature of the occupation. Between 2000 and 2019, 414 fishermen died in 245 disasters.

    Stephanie Otts receives funding from the NOAA National Sea Grant College Program through the U.S. Department of Commerce. Previous support for fisheries management legal research provided by The Nature Conservancy.

    – ref. Checking in on New England’s fishing industry 25 Years after ‘The Perfect Storm’ hit movie theaters – https://theconversation.com/checking-in-on-new-englands-fishing-industry-25-years-after-the-perfect-storm-hit-movie-theaters-255076

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Hurricane Helene set up future disasters, from landslides to flooding – cascading hazards like these are now upending risk models

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Hurricane Helene set up future disasters, from landslides to flooding – cascading hazards like these are now upending risk models – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-helene-set-up-future-disasters-from-landslides-to-flooding-cascading-hazards-like-these-are-now-upending-risk-models-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Yuri Trutnev: Yakutia will present the Ice Age Park technological testing ground on the Far East Street

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) will present its cultural, traditional and everyday life features, investment and tourism opportunities at the exhibition “Far East Street”, which will be held in Vladivostok from September 3 to 9 as part of the tenth anniversary Eastern Economic Forum. The exhibition is organized by the Roscongress Foundation with the support of the Office of the Plenipotentiary Representative of the President of Russia in the Far Eastern Federal District.

    “Thousands of people from dozens of countries become participants and guests of the Eastern Economic Forum. And only a few of them have visited all regions of the Far East. The exhibition “Far East Street” is a good opportunity to tell about how and by what the Far Eastern regions live, to attract investors and tourists to their territories. Yakutia is a unique region with a rich culture, traditions and natural attractions. There are unique natural objects and places of power, different peoples with their own cultural characteristics and traditions live here. Yakutia is a confident leader in the field of creative technologies. Recently, an international forum of creative industries was held here, which gave creative people the opportunity to show their work to the general public. A separate area was the development of the cinematography sector. Films by Yakut directors receive prizes at film festivals, deserved attention from critics, and gain fans not only in Russia, but also in other countries. I am sure that after visiting the pavilion, which tells about the beauty of the northern nature, the sights and features of the republic, visitors will want to come to Yakutia and find out how it lives”, emphasized the Deputy Chairman of the Government – Plenipotentiary Representative President in the Far Eastern Federal District, Chairman of the Organizing Committee of the Eastern Economic Forum Yuri Trutnev.

    This year, the area of the Yakutia pavilion will be more than 1 thousand square meters and will be divided into three zones: the main pavilion, the trade and exhibition area and the stage. The exhibition and presentation exposition will be dedicated to the presentation of the World Mammoth Center in the Republic of Sakha, the idea of which, by decree of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, is included in the Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Ensuring National Security for the Period up to 2035.

    A presentation area of the scientific complex with a cryogenic storage facility for mammoth fauna, monitoring stations, museum, exhibition and laboratory buildings, the Ice Age Park technological testing ground and a tourist and leisure center will be prepared for visitors.

    “The Eastern Economic Forum is the main event for the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. We are signing many agreements here. The investment projects implemented within their framework have set the dynamics of Yakutia’s development for years to come. Since the first forum, 4 trillion rubles have been invested in the republic, and the gross regional product has increased fourfold and reached 2.3 trillion rubles. The main result of all this is an improvement in the quality of life of people. New industries have been created, thousands of jobs have been opened, infrastructure is developing: housing, roads, and social facilities are being built. And at the EEF sites, we also have the opportunity to demonstrate the culture, traditions of the peoples, and the originality of the Far Eastern regions. This year, the Sakha Republic pavilion will be dedicated to the World Mammoth Center, which is planned to open in Yakutsk. The capital of our region is one of the largest scientific centers in the northeast of Russia, where paleontological research is actively developing with the involvement of foreign and Russian scientists. You will be able to learn about all this and more at the exhibition “Far East Street”. I am confident that VEF-2025 will be fruitful for us, and all planned events will be held at the highest level,” noted the head of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) Aisen Nikolaev.

    The exhibition and presentation exposition is planned to present projects dedicated to the problem of preserving the eastern population of the Siberian Crane – a symbol of untouched northern nature, one of the rare species of cranes that is under threat of extinction. Special attention will be paid to the investment potential of the region and the initiatives of large companies in its territory.

    The pavilion will also house a tourism zone. Visitors will be able to get information about popular tourist routes, including learning about the Lena Pillars National Nature Park, the tukulan sand dunes, Lake Labynkyr and the Buluus Glacier.

    In addition, popular regional brands will be presented in the trade and exhibition area – jewelry and souvenirs, clothing and accessories will be on display here. Guests and participants of the “Far East Street” will be able to visit the exhibition and fair of products of Yakut manufacturers and buy a memorable souvenir.

    The cultural program will attract special attention of visitors, which will have a thematic direction according to the days of the forum. Its basis will be the theme of patriotism and love for the native land, it will unite unique national folklore and modern trends of music, high classical art.

    The 10th Eastern Economic Forum will be held on September 3–6 at the campus of the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok. During these days, the exhibition “Far East Street” will be available to forum participants, and on September 7, 8, and 9, it will be open to everyone. The EEF is organized by the Roscongress Foundation.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: At SPbGASU, schoolchildren were presented with certificates of their first profession

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering – Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering – Congratulations to the graduate

    On June 24, a ceremony was held in the meeting room of the Academic Council of SPbGASU to present certificates, certificates of obtaining the first profession and certificates of completion of training at SPbGASU to ninth-grade graduates of School No. 334 in the Nevsky District of St. Petersburg.

    The dean of the automobile and road engineering faculty of SPbGASU Andrey Zazykin addressed the graduates with welcoming words, conveying congratulations from the rector Evgeny Rybnov and noting that the students have many professional achievements and personal victories ahead of them, and the experience they have gained will help them make the right choice of their future profession.

    Advisor to the General Director of St. Petersburg State Unitary Enterprise “Passazhiravtotrans” Sergey Maevsky invited the guys to join his enterprise in the future – the largest passenger transport operator in the North-West region.

    Principal of School No. 334 Natalia Nagaichenko addressed the graduates with a farewell speech: “Remember the names of those who made our country famous with their discoveries and inventions, whose works became the foundation for the development of science and technology. They left us a rich heritage, which we can rightfully be proud of! But pride in the past is only a starting point. True strength is in the desire to surpass what has been achieved, in the desire to make a contribution to the future. Believe in yourself, in your potential, in the power of Russian science and engineering! Go forward, to new heights, for the benefit of the city and the country!”

    In autumn 2023, SPbGASU, in cooperation with the Center for Advanced Professional Training, SPb GBPOU “Academy of Transport Technologies” and key partners – Renga Softvea LLC, St. Petersburg State Unitary Enterprise “Passazhiravtotrans” and EVROAVTO LLC, began implementing the Engineering Classes project.

    On the basis of the 334th school, a TIM class and the first motor transport class in the Northern capital were created. The main goal of the engineering classes is early career guidance and training of engineering personnel, as well as building a chain of sustainable interaction “school – college – university – employer”.

    Over the course of two years, schoolchildren mastered additional general development programs and a vocational training program, for which they successfully passed the final certification.

    In a ceremonial atmosphere, Anna Samodelkina, Senior Methodologist of the Center for Advanced Professional Training of St. Petersburg, Natalia Khlebova, Head of the Career Guidance and Employment Department of the Academy of Transport Technologies, Igor Chernyaev, Head of the Department of Technical Operation of Vehicles of St. Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Roman Litvin, Associate Professor of the Department of Ground Transport and Technological Machines of St. Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, and Ekaterina Kopylova, Deputy Director of the Institute of Continuing Education of St. Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, presented graduates with certificates of completion of training in additional general development programs of St. Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering and certificates of the first profession of “Automobile Repair Mechanic”, “Draftsman-Designer” and “Inspector of Purchased Components”.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: SPbGASU took part in the Engineering Assembly of Russia

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering – Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering –

    Employees of the Department of Technosphere Safety and the Smart Labor testing ground of SPbGASU took part in the forum and exhibition “Engineering Assembly of Russia 2025”. The event took place in St. Petersburg on June 25-26 and was dedicated to the development of domestic industry.

    At the forum, specialists from our university presented a virtual reality training program, “Zero Cycle. Concrete Works,” developed within the framework of the innovative educational project of SPbGASU “Modern Educational Technologies for Ensuring Occupational Safety in the Construction Industry.” In addition, innovative personal protective equipment, industrial exoskeletons for construction work, were presented at the SPbGASU stand, the capabilities and efficiency of which are being studied by specialists from the Department of Technosphere Safety.

    Dean of the Faculty of Construction, Head of the Department of Technosphere Safety Andrey Nikulin presented a report on “Using information modeling technologies (TIM) to ensure safe work during the construction cycle.”

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve – https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-dont-disappear-when-the-storm-ends-or-the-earthquake-stops-they-evolve-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve – https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-dont-disappear-when-the-storm-ends-or-the-earthquake-stops-they-evolve-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve – https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-dont-disappear-when-the-storm-ends-or-the-earthquake-stops-they-evolve-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Michelin Guide scrutiny could boost Philly tourism, but will it stifle chefs’ freedom to experiment and innovate?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jonathan Deutsch, Professor of Food and Hospitality Management, Drexel University

    Chef Phila Lorn prepares a bowl of noodle soup at Mawn restaurant in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

    The Philadelphia restaurant scene is abuzz with the news that the famed Michelin Guide is coming to town.

    As a research chef and educator at Drexel University in Philadelphia, I am following the Michelin developments closely.

    Having eaten in Michelin restaurants in other cities, I am confident that Philly has at least a few star-worthy restaurants. Our innovative dining scene was named one of the top 10 in the U.S. by Food & Wine in 2025.

    Researchers have convincingly shown that Michelin ratings can boost tourism, so Philly gaining some starred restaurants could bring more revenue for the city.

    But as the lead author of the textbook “Culinary Improvisation,” which teaches creativity, I also worry the Michelin scrutiny could make chefs more focused on delivering a consistent experience than continuing along the innovative trajectory that attracts Michelin in the first place.

    Ingredients for culinary innovation

    In “Culinary Improvisation” we discuss three elements needed to foster innovation in the kitchen.

    The first is mastery of culinary technique, both classical and modern. Simply stated, this refers to good cooking.

    The second is access to a diverse range of ingredients and flavors. The more colors the artist has on their palette, the more directions the creation can take.

    And the third, which is key to my concerns, is a collaborative and supportive environment where chefs can take risks and make mistakes. Research shows a close link between risk-taking workplaces and innovation.

    According to the Michelin Guide, stars are awarded to outstanding restaurants based on: “quality of ingredients, mastery of cooking techniques and flavors, the personality of the chef as expressed in the cuisine, value for money, and consistency of the dining experience both across the menu and over time.”

    The criteria do not mention innovation.

    It’s possible the high-stakes lure of a Michelin star, which awards consistent excellence, could lead Philly’s most vibrant and creative chefs and restaurateurs to pull back on the risks that led to the city’s culinary excellence in the first place.

    Local food writers believe Vernick Fish is a top contender for a Michelin star.
    Photo courtesy of Vernick Fish

    The obvious contenders

    Philadelphia’s preeminent restaurant critic Craig LaBan and journalist and former restaurateur Kiki Aranita discussed local contenders for Michelin stars in a recent article in the Philadelphia Inquirer.

    The 19 restaurants LaBan and Aranita discuss as possible star contenders average just over a one-mile walk from the Pennsylvania Convention Center.

    Together they have received 78 James Beard nominations or awards, which are considered the “Oscars” of the food industry. That’s an average of over four per restaurant.

    And when I tried to book a table for two on a Wednesday and Saturday before 9 p.m., about half were already fully booked for dinner two weeks out, in July, which is the slow season for dining in Philadelphia.

    If LaBan’s and Aranita’s predictions are right, Michelin will be an added recognition for restaurants that are already successful and centrally located.

    Black Dragon Takeout fuses Black American cuisine with the aesthetics of classic Chinese American takeout.
    Jeff Fusco/The Conversation, CC BY-SA

    Off the beaten path

    When the Michelin Guide started in France at the turn of the 19th century, it encouraged diners to take the road less traveled to their next gastronomic experience.

    It has since evolved into recommendations for a road well traveled: safe, lauded and already hard-to-get-into restaurants. In Philly these could be restaurants such as Vetri Cucina, Zahav, Vernick Fish, Provenance, Royal Sushi and Izakaya, Ogawa and Friday Saturday Sunday, to name a few on LaBan and Aranita’s list.

    And yet Philadelphia has over 6,000 restaurants spread across 135 square miles of the city. Philadelphia is known as a city of neighborhoods, and these neighborhoods are rich with food diversity and innovation.

    Consider Jacob Trinh’s Vietnamese-tinged seafood tasting menu at Little Fish in Queen Village; Kurt Evans’ gumbo lo mein at Black Dragon Takeout in West Philly; the beef cheek confit with avocado mousse at Temir Satybaldiev’s Ginger in the Northeast; and the West African XO sauce at Honeysuckle, owned by Omar Tate and Cybille St.Aude-Tate, on North Broad Street.

    I hope the Michelin inspectors will venture far beyond the obvious candidates to experience more of what Philadelphia has to offer.

    The Michelin Guide announced it will include Philadelphia and Boston in its next Northeast Cities edition.
    Matthieu Delaty/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

    Raising the bar

    In the frenzy surrounding the Michelin scrutiny, chef friends have invited me to dine at their restaurants and share my feedback as they refine their menus in anticipation of visits from anonymous Michelin inspectors.

    Restaurateurs have been asking my colleagues and me for talent suggestions to replace well-liked and capable cooks, servers and managers whom owners perceive to be just not Michelin-star level.

    And managers are texting us names of suspected reviewers, triggered by some tell-tale signs – a solo diner with a weeknight tasting menu reservation, no dietary restrictions or special requests, and a conspicuously light internet presence.

    In all, I am excited about Philadelphians being excited about Michelin. Any opportunity to spotlight the city’s restaurant community and tighten its food and service quality raises the bar among local chefs and restaurateurs and makes the experience better for diners. And the prospect of business travelers and culinary tourists enjoying lunches and early-week dinners can help restaurants, their workers and the city earn more revenue.

    But in the din of the press events and hype, let’s not forget that Philadelphians don’t need an outside arbiter to tell us what we already know: Philly is a great place to eat and drink.

    _Read more of our stories about Philadelphia.

    Jonathan Deutsch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Michelin Guide scrutiny could boost Philly tourism, but will it stifle chefs’ freedom to experiment and innovate? – https://theconversation.com/michelin-guide-scrutiny-could-boost-philly-tourism-but-will-it-stifle-chefs-freedom-to-experiment-and-innovate-256752

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Scandinavia has its own dark history of assimilating Indigenous people, and churches played a role – but are apologizing

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Thomas A. DuBois, Professor of Scandinavian Studies, Folklore, and Religious Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison

    A church in Kiruna, Sweden, designed by architect Gustaf Wickman to resemble a Sami hut. Apolline Guillerot-Malick/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

    In May 2025, Tapio Luoma, archbishop of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland, delivered an apology to the Sámi, the only recognized Indigenous people in the European Union.

    Speaking on behalf of the church to which more than 6 in 10 of the Finnish populace belong, including most Sámi, Luoma acknowledged its role in past activities that stigmatized Sámi language and culture.

    The church “has not respected the rights to self-determination of the Sámi people,” his address began. “Before God and all of you here assembled, we express our regret and ask forgiveness of the Sámi people.”

    Luoma’s words were the latest in a series of apologies through which the former state churches in Scandinavia have sought to reset their relations with the Indigenous population of Sápmi, the natural and cultural area of Sámi people. Today, the region is divided between Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia.

    As a scholar of Sámi culture, and as a researcher of Nordic folklore and religion, I have studied the difficult, often painful, relations between Sámi and the various Nordic state churches.

    Church’s power

    For thousands of years, the Sámi population lived by hunting, fishing and reindeer husbandry along the northern edges of Scandinavia. The Sámi possessed their own languages and maintained distinctive spiritual traditions and healing practices, drawing on traditional ecological knowledge that they had accrued over countless generations. In times of crisis or uncertainty, for example, communities used ceremonial drums to communicate with the spirit world and divine the future.

    Conflicts emerged by the 13th century, however, as Christian realms expanded north. Christian clerics condemned Sámi spiritual traditions as “heathen devilry.”

    An 18th-century carving of a Sámi shaman with his drum.
    Beskrivelse over Finnmarkens Lapper, deres Tungemaal, Levemaade og forrige Afgudsdyrkelse/O. H. von Lode/Wikimedia Commons

    During the 16th-century Protestant Reformation, Scandinavian rulers shifted from Catholicism to Lutheranism. In addition to tending to the souls of their flocks, ministers were tasked with keeping track of the comings and goings of congregation members, collecting taxes, and administering justice for lesser crimes.

    They aimed to stamp out the spiritual practices that many Sámi continued to practice alongside Christianity. Church authorities arrested, fined and sometimes even executed practitioners, while confiscating sacred drums to be destroyed or sent to distant museums.

    The church’s ritual of confirmation, which marks the passage from adolescence into adulthood, also acquired legal status. Being confirmed required the ability to read and interpret the Bible and Martin Luther’s Catechism, a summary of the Lutheran Church’s beliefs. As the church became part of the state, people who had not received confirmation could not represent themselves in court, own land or even marry.

    Lake Pielpajarvi Wilderness Church, the oldest Sami church still in use, in Inari Municipality, Lapland, Finland.
    VW PICS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    And where Luther had called for religious instruction to occur in one’s native language, most Nordic clergy provided catechesis only in the majority language, considering Sámi language and traditions impediments to true conversion.

    Assimilation efforts

    During the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the new “nation states” of Finland, Norway and Sweden emerged on the world stage. In each country, political leaders conflated what the ancient Greeks called the “demos” – members of a political nation – with an “ethnos,” a cultural group. In order to belong to the Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish political nations, political and cultural leaders of these new states asserted that it was necessary to belong to the majority linguistic and cultural community.

    Finland’s 1919 constitution made provision for Swedish, which is still used by about 5% of the population, as a national language alongside Finnish. However, the government accorded no such status to Sámi.

    Both state-run residential boarding schools and schools run by churches included Lutheranism as a subject and strove relentlessly to assimilate Sámi into the majority culture, language and worldview, teaching children to see their culture as backward and shameful. Some church and school authorities cooperated with pseudoscientific racial researchers measuring students’ heads and excavating Sámi graves.

    A ‘nomad school’ for Sami children in Jukkasjarvi, Sweden, 250 miles north of the Arctic Circle, in 1956.
    John Firth/BIPs/Getty Images

    As a result, many students ceased to identify as Sámi and adopted the majority language as their primary mode of communication. Today, only about half the people who identify as Sámi have any facility in Sámi languages, which are considered endangered.

    After World War II, church attendance in all the Nordic countries began to plummet. Where 98% of the Finnish population belonged to the state church in 1900, by 2024 that percentage had dropped to 62%. The bulk of defections consisted of people who registered as having no religious affiliation. Membership in the national church shifted from compulsory to voluntary.

    Yet as anthropologist David Koester shows, some elements of Lutheran tradition remain extremely popular in all the Nordic countries, particularly Confirmation. The ritual remains a key rite of passage for most Sámi today, yet many of them wrestle with whether they should remain faithful to a church that had worked to suppress their community’s language and culture.

    Reconciliation today

    Searching for a path forward, contemporary Sámi artist and Lutheran catechist Lars Levi Sunna began to produce church art that incorporated and celebrated pre-Christian Sámi symbols – some of the very traditions that had been demonized by clergy of the past.

    For example, in a church in the northern Swedish town of Jukkasjärvi, an image of the sun as it appeared on Sámi ceremonial drums now faces the altar, providing a vivid reminder of the spiritual history and past worldview of the church’s Sámi congregation. The symbol now encloses an image of a communion wafer carved of reindeer antler.

    In 2005, Sunna created a traveling art exhibit that portrayed Sámi Christianization as an act of cultural violence. The exhibit, designed for temporary installation in church sanctuaries, aimed to provoke discussion and encourage open dialogue about the past.

    Similarly, in 2008, Norwegian Sámi filmmaker Nils Gaup produced “Kautokeino Rebellion,” a film recounting clergy’s role in suppressing religious activism among followers of a Swedish Sámi minister, Lars Levi Laestadius. The so-called uprising in 1852 led to the imprisonment of several dozen Sámi and the execution of two men – whose skulls were deposited in a research institute and did not receive proper burial until 1997.

    Descended from one of the punished families, Gaup reminded his audience of past injustice shrouded in shame and silence.

    Since church attendance is infrequent in Nordic countries, art and film serve as important vehicles for raising awareness of the church’s past. In November 2021, the archbishop of Sweden, Antje Jackelén, issued a formal apology to the Sámi. Sámi artist and activist Anders Sunna was invited to temporarily redecorate the sanctuary of the Cathedral of Uppsala for the occasion. His decorations included reminders of past Sámi sacrificial traditions that took place both outdoors and around hearth fires. In place of a grand altar, Sunna erected a simple table, surrounded by an octagon of benches where the bishop and members of the Sámi community would sit face to face with a sense of equality and respect.

    As Sámi theologian Tore Johnsen notes, formal apologies are necessary first steps in a process of reconciliation. But only once they are followed by concrete acts of “restoration” can real reconciliation occur.

    When the Finnish archbishop apologized in May 2025, Sámi in attendance at the Turku Cathedral were appreciative, but they were eager to see what actions might follow, according to reporters at the ceremony. The same wait-and-see attitude characterizes Sámi responses to state-run Truth and Reconciliation processes, which occurred in Norway in 2023 and are currently ongoing in Sweden and Finland.

    The process of healing a society injured by colonialism is difficult and slow, requiring extensive discussion – much of it uncomfortable. With Luoma’s words of apology and the arrival of Sámi to listen and witness, an important step in that process occurred.

    Thomas A. DuBois does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Scandinavia has its own dark history of assimilating Indigenous people, and churches played a role – but are apologizing – https://theconversation.com/scandinavia-has-its-own-dark-history-of-assimilating-indigenous-people-and-churches-played-a-role-but-are-apologizing-255827

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Jews were barred from Spain’s New World colonies − but that didn’t stop Jewish and converso writers from describing the Americas

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Flora Cassen, Senior Faculty, Hartman Institute and Associate Professor of History and Jewish Studies, Washington University in St. Louis

    An auto-da-fé − a public punishment for heretics − in San Bartolome Otzolotepec, in present-day Mexico. Museo Nacional de Arte via Wikimedia Commons

    Every few years, a story about Columbus resurfaces: Was the Genoese navigator who claimed the Americas for Spain secretly Jewish, from a Spanish family fleeing the Inquisition?

    This tale became widespread around the late 19th century, when large numbers of Jews came from Russia and Eastern Europe to the United States. For these immigrants, 1492 held double significance: the year of Jews’ expulsion from Spain, as well as Columbus’ voyage of discovery. At a time when many Americans viewed the explorer as a hero, the idea that he might have been one of their own offered Jewish immigrants a link to the beginnings of their new country and the American story of freedom from Old World tyranny.

    The problem with the Columbus-was-a-Jew theory isn’t just that it’s based on flimsy evidence. It also distracts from the far more complex and true story of Spanish Jews in the Americas.

    In the 15th century, the kingdom’s Jews faced a wrenching choice: convert to Christianity or leave the land their families had called home for generations. Portugal’s Jews faced similar persecution. Whether they sought a new place to settle or stayed and hoped to be accepted as members of Christian society, both groups were searching for belonging.

    Jewish religious items at the Museo Metropolitano in Monterrey, Mexico.
    Thelmadatter/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    We are scholars of Jewish history and have been working on the first English translations of two texts from the 16th century. “The Book of New India,” by Joseph Ha-Kohen, and the spiritual writings of Luis de Carvajal are two of the earliest Jewish texts about the Americas.

    The story of the New World is not complete without the voices of Jewish communities that engaged with it from the very beginning.

    Double consciousness

    The first Jews in the Americas were, in fact, not Jews but “conversos,” meaning “converts,” and their descendants.

    After a millennium of relatively peaceful and prosperous life on Iberian soil, the Jews of Spain were attacked by a wave of mob violence in the summer of 1391. Afterward, thousands of Jews were forcibly converted.

    Synagogue of El Tránsito, a 14th-century Jewish congregation in Toledo, Spain.
    Selbymay/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    While conversos were officially members of the Catholic Church, neighbors looked at them with suspicion. Some of these converts were “crypto-Jews,” who secretly held on to their ancestral faith. Spanish authorities formed the Inquisition to root out anyone the church considered heretics, especially people who had converted from Judaism and Islam.

    In 1492, after conquering the last Muslim stronghold in Spain, monarchs Ferdinand and Isabella gave the remaining Spanish Jews the choice of conversion or exile. Eventually, people who converted from Islam would be expelled as well.

    Among Jews who converted, some sought new lives within the rapidly expanding Spanish empire. As the historian Jonathan Israel wrote, Jews and conversos were both “agents and victims of empire.” Their familiarity with Iberian language and culture, combined with the dispersion of their community, positioned them to participate in the new global economy: trade in sugar, textiles, spices – and the trade in human lives, Atlantic slavery.

    Yet conversos were also far more vulnerable than their compatriots: They could lose it all, even end up burned alive at the stake, because of their beliefs. This double consciousness – being part of the culture, yet apart from it – is what makes conversos vital to understanding the complexities of colonial Latin America.

    By the 17th century, once the Dutch and the English conquered parts of the Americas, Jews would be able to live there. Often, these were families whose ancestors had been expelled from the Iberian peninsula. In the first Spanish and Portuguese colonies, however, Jews were not allowed to openly practice their faith.

    Secret spirituality

    One of these conversos was Luis de Carvajal. His uncle, the similarly named Luis de Carvajal y de la Cueva, was a merchant, slave trader and conquistador. As a reward for his exploits he was named governor of the New Kingdom of León, in the northeast of modern-day Mexico. In 1579 he brought over a large group of relatives to help him settle and administer the rugged territory, which was made up of swamps, deserts and silver mines.

    A statue in Monterrey, Mexico, of Luis Carvajal y de la Cueva.
    Ricardo DelaG/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    The uncle was a devout Catholic who attempted to shed his converso past, integrating himself into the landed gentry of Spain’s New World empire. Luis the younger, however, his potential heir, was a passionate crypto-Jew who spent his free time composing prayers to the God of Israel and secretly following the commandments of the Torah.

    When Luis and his family were arrested by the Inquisition in 1595, his book of spiritual writings was discovered and used as evidence of his secret Jewish life. Luis, his mother and sister were burned at the stake, but the small, leather-bound diary survived.

    A 19th-century depiction of the execution of Luis de Carvajal the Younger’s sister.
    ‘El Libro Rojo, 1520-1867’ via Wikimedia Commons

    Luis’ religious thought drew on a wide range of early modern Spanish culture. He used a Latin Bible and drew inspiration from the inwardly focused spirituality of Catholic thinkers such as Fray Luis de Granada, a Dominican theologian. He met with the hermit and mystic Gregorio López. He discovered passages from Maimonides and other rabbis quoted in the works of Catholic theologians whom he read at the famed monastery of Santiago de Tlatelolco, in Mexico City, where he worked as an assistant to the rector.

    His spiritual writings are deeply American: The wide deserts and furious hurricanes of Mexico were the setting of his spiritual awakenings, and his encounters with the people and cultures of the emerging Atlantic world shaped his religious vision. This little book is a unique example of the brilliant, creative culture that developed in the crossing from Old World to New, born out of the exchange and conflict between diverse cultures, languages and faiths.

    A glimpse of Luis de Carvajal’s spiritual writings, photographed in New York City.
    Ronnie Perelis

    More than translation

    Spanish Jews who refused to convert in 1492, meanwhile, had been forced into exile and barred from the kingdom’s colonies.

    The journey of Joseph Ha-Kohen’s family illustrates the hardships. After the expulsion, his parents moved to Avignon, the papal city in southern France, where Joseph was born in 1496. From there, they made their way to Genoa, the Italian merchant city, hoping to establish themselves. But it was not to be. The family was repeatedly expelled, permitted to return, and then expelled again.

    Despite these upheavals, Ha-Kohen became a doctor and a merchant, a leader in the Jewish community – earning the respect of the Christian community, too. Toward the end of his life, he settled in a small mountain town beyond the city’s borders and turned to writing.

    After a book on wars between Christianity and Islam, and another one on the history of the Jews, he began a new project. Ha-Kohen adapted “Historia General de las Indias,” an account of the Americas’ colonization by Spanish historian Francisco López de Gómara, reshaping the text for a Jewish audience.

    A 1733 edition of ‘Divrei Ha-Yamim,’ Ha-Kohen’s book about wars between Christian and Muslim cultures.
    John Carter Brown Library via Wikimedia Commons

    Ha-Kohen’s work was the first Hebrew-language book about the Americas. The text was hundreds of pages long – and he copied his entire manuscript nine times by hand. He had never seen the Americas, but his own life of repeated uprooting may have led him to wonder whether Jews would one day seek refuge there.

    Ha-Kohen wanted his readers to have access to the text’s geographical, botanical and anthropological information, but not to Spain’s triumphalist narrative. So he created an adapted, hybrid translation. The differences between versions reveal the complexities of being a European Jew in the age of exploration.

    Ha-Kohen omitted references to the Americas as Spanish territory and criticized the conquistadors for their brutality toward Indigenous peoples. At times, he compared Native Americans with the ancient Israelites of the Bible, feeling a kinship with them as fellow victims of oppression. Yet at other moments he expressed estrangement and even revulsion at Indigenous customs and described their religious practices as “darkness.”

    Translating these men’s writing is not just a matter of bringing a text from one language into another. It is also a deep reflection on the complex position of Jews and conversos in those years. Their unique vantage point offers a window into the intertwined histories of Europe, the Americas and the in-betweenness that marked the Jewish experience in the early modern world.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Jews were barred from Spain’s New World colonies − but that didn’t stop Jewish and converso writers from describing the Americas – https://theconversation.com/jews-were-barred-from-spains-new-world-colonies-but-that-didnt-stop-jewish-and-converso-writers-from-describing-the-americas-258278

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Jews were barred from Spain’s New World colonies − but that didn’t stop Jewish and converso writers from describing the Americas

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Flora Cassen, Senior Faculty, Hartman Institute and Associate Professor of History and Jewish Studies, Washington University in St. Louis

    An auto-da-fé − a public punishment for heretics − in San Bartolome Otzolotepec, in present-day Mexico. Museo Nacional de Arte via Wikimedia Commons

    Every few years, a story about Columbus resurfaces: Was the Genoese navigator who claimed the Americas for Spain secretly Jewish, from a Spanish family fleeing the Inquisition?

    This tale became widespread around the late 19th century, when large numbers of Jews came from Russia and Eastern Europe to the United States. For these immigrants, 1492 held double significance: the year of Jews’ expulsion from Spain, as well as Columbus’ voyage of discovery. At a time when many Americans viewed the explorer as a hero, the idea that he might have been one of their own offered Jewish immigrants a link to the beginnings of their new country and the American story of freedom from Old World tyranny.

    The problem with the Columbus-was-a-Jew theory isn’t just that it’s based on flimsy evidence. It also distracts from the far more complex and true story of Spanish Jews in the Americas.

    In the 15th century, the kingdom’s Jews faced a wrenching choice: convert to Christianity or leave the land their families had called home for generations. Portugal’s Jews faced similar persecution. Whether they sought a new place to settle or stayed and hoped to be accepted as members of Christian society, both groups were searching for belonging.

    Jewish religious items at the Museo Metropolitano in Monterrey, Mexico.
    Thelmadatter/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    We are scholars of Jewish history and have been working on the first English translations of two texts from the 16th century. “The Book of New India,” by Joseph Ha-Kohen, and the spiritual writings of Luis de Carvajal are two of the earliest Jewish texts about the Americas.

    The story of the New World is not complete without the voices of Jewish communities that engaged with it from the very beginning.

    Double consciousness

    The first Jews in the Americas were, in fact, not Jews but “conversos,” meaning “converts,” and their descendants.

    After a millennium of relatively peaceful and prosperous life on Iberian soil, the Jews of Spain were attacked by a wave of mob violence in the summer of 1391. Afterward, thousands of Jews were forcibly converted.

    Synagogue of El Tránsito, a 14th-century Jewish congregation in Toledo, Spain.
    Selbymay/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    While conversos were officially members of the Catholic Church, neighbors looked at them with suspicion. Some of these converts were “crypto-Jews,” who secretly held on to their ancestral faith. Spanish authorities formed the Inquisition to root out anyone the church considered heretics, especially people who had converted from Judaism and Islam.

    In 1492, after conquering the last Muslim stronghold in Spain, monarchs Ferdinand and Isabella gave the remaining Spanish Jews the choice of conversion or exile. Eventually, people who converted from Islam would be expelled as well.

    Among Jews who converted, some sought new lives within the rapidly expanding Spanish empire. As the historian Jonathan Israel wrote, Jews and conversos were both “agents and victims of empire.” Their familiarity with Iberian language and culture, combined with the dispersion of their community, positioned them to participate in the new global economy: trade in sugar, textiles, spices – and the trade in human lives, Atlantic slavery.

    Yet conversos were also far more vulnerable than their compatriots: They could lose it all, even end up burned alive at the stake, because of their beliefs. This double consciousness – being part of the culture, yet apart from it – is what makes conversos vital to understanding the complexities of colonial Latin America.

    By the 17th century, once the Dutch and the English conquered parts of the Americas, Jews would be able to live there. Often, these were families whose ancestors had been expelled from the Iberian peninsula. In the first Spanish and Portuguese colonies, however, Jews were not allowed to openly practice their faith.

    Secret spirituality

    One of these conversos was Luis de Carvajal. His uncle, the similarly named Luis de Carvajal y de la Cueva, was a merchant, slave trader and conquistador. As a reward for his exploits he was named governor of the New Kingdom of León, in the northeast of modern-day Mexico. In 1579 he brought over a large group of relatives to help him settle and administer the rugged territory, which was made up of swamps, deserts and silver mines.

    A statue in Monterrey, Mexico, of Luis Carvajal y de la Cueva.
    Ricardo DelaG/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    The uncle was a devout Catholic who attempted to shed his converso past, integrating himself into the landed gentry of Spain’s New World empire. Luis the younger, however, his potential heir, was a passionate crypto-Jew who spent his free time composing prayers to the God of Israel and secretly following the commandments of the Torah.

    When Luis and his family were arrested by the Inquisition in 1595, his book of spiritual writings was discovered and used as evidence of his secret Jewish life. Luis, his mother and sister were burned at the stake, but the small, leather-bound diary survived.

    A 19th-century depiction of the execution of Luis de Carvajal the Younger’s sister.
    ‘El Libro Rojo, 1520-1867’ via Wikimedia Commons

    Luis’ religious thought drew on a wide range of early modern Spanish culture. He used a Latin Bible and drew inspiration from the inwardly focused spirituality of Catholic thinkers such as Fray Luis de Granada, a Dominican theologian. He met with the hermit and mystic Gregorio López. He discovered passages from Maimonides and other rabbis quoted in the works of Catholic theologians whom he read at the famed monastery of Santiago de Tlatelolco, in Mexico City, where he worked as an assistant to the rector.

    His spiritual writings are deeply American: The wide deserts and furious hurricanes of Mexico were the setting of his spiritual awakenings, and his encounters with the people and cultures of the emerging Atlantic world shaped his religious vision. This little book is a unique example of the brilliant, creative culture that developed in the crossing from Old World to New, born out of the exchange and conflict between diverse cultures, languages and faiths.

    A glimpse of Luis de Carvajal’s spiritual writings, photographed in New York City.
    Ronnie Perelis

    More than translation

    Spanish Jews who refused to convert in 1492, meanwhile, had been forced into exile and barred from the kingdom’s colonies.

    The journey of Joseph Ha-Kohen’s family illustrates the hardships. After the expulsion, his parents moved to Avignon, the papal city in southern France, where Joseph was born in 1496. From there, they made their way to Genoa, the Italian merchant city, hoping to establish themselves. But it was not to be. The family was repeatedly expelled, permitted to return, and then expelled again.

    Despite these upheavals, Ha-Kohen became a doctor and a merchant, a leader in the Jewish community – earning the respect of the Christian community, too. Toward the end of his life, he settled in a small mountain town beyond the city’s borders and turned to writing.

    After a book on wars between Christianity and Islam, and another one on the history of the Jews, he began a new project. Ha-Kohen adapted “Historia General de las Indias,” an account of the Americas’ colonization by Spanish historian Francisco López de Gómara, reshaping the text for a Jewish audience.

    A 1733 edition of ‘Divrei Ha-Yamim,’ Ha-Kohen’s book about wars between Christian and Muslim cultures.
    John Carter Brown Library via Wikimedia Commons

    Ha-Kohen’s work was the first Hebrew-language book about the Americas. The text was hundreds of pages long – and he copied his entire manuscript nine times by hand. He had never seen the Americas, but his own life of repeated uprooting may have led him to wonder whether Jews would one day seek refuge there.

    Ha-Kohen wanted his readers to have access to the text’s geographical, botanical and anthropological information, but not to Spain’s triumphalist narrative. So he created an adapted, hybrid translation. The differences between versions reveal the complexities of being a European Jew in the age of exploration.

    Ha-Kohen omitted references to the Americas as Spanish territory and criticized the conquistadors for their brutality toward Indigenous peoples. At times, he compared Native Americans with the ancient Israelites of the Bible, feeling a kinship with them as fellow victims of oppression. Yet at other moments he expressed estrangement and even revulsion at Indigenous customs and described their religious practices as “darkness.”

    Translating these men’s writing is not just a matter of bringing a text from one language into another. It is also a deep reflection on the complex position of Jews and conversos in those years. Their unique vantage point offers a window into the intertwined histories of Europe, the Americas and the in-betweenness that marked the Jewish experience in the early modern world.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Jews were barred from Spain’s New World colonies − but that didn’t stop Jewish and converso writers from describing the Americas – https://theconversation.com/jews-were-barred-from-spains-new-world-colonies-but-that-didnt-stop-jewish-and-converso-writers-from-describing-the-americas-258278

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI USA: A History of Self-Representation and How H.H. Holmes Represented Himself in His Criminal Trial

    Source: US Global Legal Monitor

    The following is a guest post by Emily Tejada, a former intern with the Digital Resources Division of the Law Library of Congress. She is a recent graduate from Southern New Hampshire University.

    One interesting aspect of the United States’ judicial law is defendants’ right to represent themselves in court. Many may ask, “Why would someone choose to represent themselves in court?” This mainly concerns defendants wanting to manage their own court proceedings as they see fit and the belief that exercising the right to self-represent offers them the best chance of achieving their goals. Self-representation in court proceedings is a constitutional right continuously protected under the United States’ judicial law. The right to represent oneself in court has resulted in a plethora of criminal cases in which defendants chose to waive the right to an attorney and conduct their own defense. One fascinating self-representation case pertains to America’s first serial killer, H.H. Holmes. Following Holmes’ court case, three major cases solidified the legal precedent for a defendant’s right to represent themself in a criminal case and the regulations that dictate these types of court proceedings.

    Self-Representation is also known as proceeding pro se, which is Latin for “for oneself, on one’s own behalf.” This term refers to a defendant’s right to advocate on their own behalf before a court by waiving their right to attorney representation. This judicial right has been strongly protected since the United States’ founding under the Judiciary Act of 1789, which established the national judicial court system and was signed into law by President George Washington himself. Section 35 of the Judiciary Act, which can be found in Statutes at Large Volume One, set forth into law the right for parties to manage their own court cases. Section 35 states “[a]nd be it further enacted, that in all the courts of the United States, the parties may plead and manage their own causes personally or by the assistance of such counsel or attorneys at law as by the rules of the said courts respectively shall be permitted to manage and causes therewithin. …”

    U.S. Statutes at Large, Volume 1 (1789-1799), 1st through 5th Congress. Law Library of Congress. https://lccn.loc.gov/mm80001287.

    The right of defendants to represent themselves in court is further protected under the Sixth Amendment, as it guarantees the rights of defendants, which include the right to a lawyer. Under this amendment, there is a basis that a defendant may acquire counsel representation by their own choice. The Judiciary Act of 1789 and the Sixth Amendment protect a defendant’s right to represent themselves in court.

    One fascinating case of self-representation in criminal court deals with America’s first serial killer, H.H. Holmes. H.H. Holmes was born in 1861 as Herman Webster Mudgett in New Hampshire. Holmes developed a gruesome fascination with death – this included stealing corpses from graves and morgues during his college years at the University of Michigan, where Holmes would either sell these corpses to medical schools or burn and disfigure them to commit insurance fraud. Holmes would take out life insurance policies on these bodies before staging accidents to collect the money. He moved to Chicago in 1884 under the alias Dr. Henry H. Holmes, where he constructed a three-story hotel that would later become known as the “Murder Castle.” Holmes insisted that his guests, employees, and romantic partners were required to have life insurance policies and to list him as the beneficiary. He took advantage of the 1893 Chicago World Fair to target and lure guests to his hotel, many of whom disappeared. Once the fair ended, he and his accomplice, Benjamin Pitezel, traveled the United States, where a trail of homicides and disappearances followed Holmes, including the murder of Pitzel.

    The Ogden Standard. [volume] July 4, 1914. Library of Congress Chronicling America. https://lccn.loc.gov/sn85058396.

    Holmes was arrested in Boston in 1894 as he was suspected of committing fraud. However, through a thorough investigation, the police soon connected Holmes to the murder of Benjamin Pitzel and his three children. Holmes eventually confessed to murdering 28 people; however, it is believed he could be responsible for up to 200 murders. Holmes was only formally charged with the murder of Benjamin Pitezel, and he requested to represent himself in court. Holmes’s choice to represent himself was quite unprecedented since no accused murderer had ever done so. Holmes refused to accept the services of attorneys Everett A. Schofield and Joseph R. Fahy, who were appointed to his case by the court of Philadelphia. According to court records, Holmes was nasty to the prosecutor, asked for scientific analysis on all evidence, claimed Benjamin Pitzel had committed suicide, and often deflected questions. He made a grave error when he requested a lunch break after a detailed and grotesque description of Pitzel’s corpse, and he continuously failed to support his claims of innocence. He eventually requested the assistance of his defense attorneys but was ultimately convicted of Pitzel’s murder and was subsequently hanged for his crimes on May 7, 1896. H.H. Holmes represents America’s first recorded serial killer and the first murderer to utilize his constitutional right to represent himself.

    The Evening Times. [volume] Oct. 28, 1895. Library of Congress Chronicling America. https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn84024441/1895-10-28/ed-1/seq-1/

    The three major court cases that have set Constitutional standards for self-representation are Faretta v. California (1975), McKaskle v. Wiggins (1982 – 1984), and Indiana v. Edwards (2008). Anthony Faretta was charged with grand theft and requested to represent himself in the Los Angeles County Superior Court. Faretta stated that he was literate, had previously represented himself in criminal court, and did not wish to accept a public defender. While the presiding judge originally accepted his request, he soon determined Faretta was unable to adequately represent himself after questioning him on California state law and appointed a public defender. While the California court of appeals affirmed the judge’s ruling, stating that Faretta had no constitutional right to represent himself, the Supreme Court held that under the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments, defendants in state criminal trials have a constitutional right to represent themselves when they “voluntarily and intellectually” elect to do so and that the California State courts denied Faretta that right. This 1975 decision set forth that the Sixth Amendment implies a constitutional right to represent oneself in the United States’ courts, and pro se proceedings are based on this decision.

    In the case of McKaskle v. Wiggins, Carl Edwin Wiggins was charged with robbing a Piggly Wiggly in San Antonio, Texas, and chose to waive his right to counsel. The court, however, chose to appoint Wiggins a standby counsel to assist him in understanding the basic rules of the courtroom. Wiggins frequently contested the role of his standby counsel and, after his conviction, argued for a new trial because his standby counsel interfered with his defense and deprived him of his constitutional right to represent himself, which was guaranteed under Faretta v. California. While the court of appeals held that Wiggins’ sixth amendment right to represent himself was violated by unsolicited participation of the standby counsel, the Supreme Court held that Wiggins’ constitutional right was not violated due to his ability to conduct his own defense as he saw fit and that the unsolicited intervention of the standby counsel was within reasonable limits. This case set the basic foundation for standby counsel to be allowed to participate in self-representation cases.

    In Indiana v. Edwards, Ahmad Edwards was charged with attempted murder after shooting an FBI agent, a security guard, and a bystander after stealing a pair of shoes. Edwards’s mental competency to stand trial was called into question, but after five years of psychiatric evaluation, he was deemed competent enough to stand trial. Edwards requested to represent himself in court; however, his medical records stated that he suffered from schizophrenia, and his requests were systematically denied. The

    Subscribe to In Custodia Legis – it is free! – to receive interesting posts drawn from the Law Library of Congress’s vast collections and our staff’s expertise in U.S., foreign, and international law.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: EUROPE/ITALY – University and solidarity: the choice to be present

    Source: Agenzia Fides – MIL OSI

    Friday, 27 June 2025

    UER

    Rome (Agenzia Fides) – Another year of social responsibility activities, promoted by the university’s Center for Integral Formation, has come to an end at the European University of Rome (Università Europea di Roma, UER).These activities play a central role in the education and personal development of students by raising their awareness of social dynamics, the active practice of solidarity, and the recognition of the social value inherent in professional commitment. The students collaborate with various organizations operating in the social sector in the region (associations, non-profit organizations, foundations, workshops, volunteer organizations) and engage in various areas: supporting the homeless or people in socio-economic distress, helping minors and the disabled, protecting the environment, promoting culture and education, and supporting the elderly or the sick.One student describes her personal experience helping the homeless: “On our way home, we took with us much more than we gave. This encounter changed us. It broke through the invisible barrier that separates us from the pain of others. And perhaps in this small shift in our perspective lies the possibility of a greater change: in the city, in our relationships, in ourselves.” Another student reported on the “Angel for a Day” project, which she spent with children in Rome’s family homes: “The experience taught me that volunteering is not just an act of generosity. It is a mirror. It shows you the reality of others, but also your own. It forces you to examine your priorities and focus on what is truly important. It teaches you respect, gratitude, and presence.”The goal of these initiatives is to provide students with both technical and scientific training and human skills, enabling them to treat others with sensitivity and respect, and to experience their profession not only as personal fulfillment but also as a service for the transformation of society. (Agenzia Fides, 27/6/2025)
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    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: China is ready to maintain trade and economic contacts with the US – Deputy Minister of Finance

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BEIJING, June 27 (Xinhua) — China is willing to maintain economic and trade exchanges with the United States on the basis of equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit, so as to benefit both countries and the world, Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said in a statement released by the ministry on Friday.

    Liao Min made the remarks during a meeting with Harvard University Professor Graham Allison on June 20. The two sides held an in-depth exchange of views on China-US relations, bilateral economic and trade ties, and issues of common interest.

    Guided by the important agreements reached by the two heads of state, the China-US negotiating teams on trade and economic issues have reached fundamental agreement on implementing the important consensus reached by the two heads of state during the telephone conversation on June 5 and on the framework of measures to consolidate the results of the trade and economic talks in Geneva, which has played an important role in stabilizing both China-US relations and bilateral trade and economic ties, Liao Min noted.

    He stressed that China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, while at the same time being willing to maintain economic and trade contacts with the United States on the basis of equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit, so as to benefit both countries and the whole world.

    Mr. Allison, in turn, said that relations between the US and China are one of the most important bilateral relations in the world, and it is extremely important for both sides to maintain and deepen communication.

    He noted that China has made significant progress in advancing economic reforms, expanding openness and creating a fair market environment. Given the high interdependence of the US and Chinese economies, further deepening trade and economic exchanges is in the common interests of both countries and the entire world, he concluded. -0-

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why energy markets fluctuate during an international crisis

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Skip York, Nonresident Fellow in Energy and Global Oil, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

    Stock and commodities traders found themselves dealing with various price swings as energy markets responded to Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran. Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Imagesf

    Global energy markets, such as those for oil, gas and coal, tend to be sensitive to a wide range of world events – especially when there is some sort of crisis. Having worked in the energy industry for over 30 years, I’ve seen how war, political instability, pandemics and economic sanctions can significantly disrupt energy markets and impede them from functioning efficiently.

    A look at the basics

    First, consider the economic fundamentals of supply and demand. The risk most people imagine in the current crisis between Israel, the U.S. and Iran is that Iran, which is itself a major oil-producing country, might suddenly expand the conflict by threatening the ability of neighboring countries to supply oil to the world.

    Oil wells, refineries, pipelines and shipping lanes are the backbone of energy markets. They can be vulnerable during a crisis: Whether there is deliberate sabotage or collateral damage from military action, energy infrastructure often takes a hit.

    For instance, after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990, Iraqi forces placed explosive charges on Kuwaiti oil wells and began detonating them in January 1991. It took months for all the resulting fires to be put out, and millions of barrels of oil and hundreds of millions of cubic meters of natural gas were released into the environment – rather than being sold and used productively somewhere around the world.

    Scenes of Kuwaiti life during and after the Gulf War of 1990 and 1991 include images of oil wells burning as a result of Iraqi sabotage.

    Logistics can mess markets up too. For instance, closing critical maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal can cause transportation delays.

    Whether supply is lost from decreased production or blocked transportation routes, the effect is less oil available to the market, which not only causes prices to rise in general, but it also makes them more volatile – tending to change more frequently and by larger amounts.

    On the flip side, demand can also shift radically. During the 1990-1991 Gulf War, demand rose: U.S. forces alone used more than 2 billion gallons of fuel, according to an Army analysis. By contrast, during the COVID-19 pandemic, industries shut down, travel came to a halt and energy demand plummeted.

    When crisis looms, countries and companies often start stockpiling oil and other raw materials rather than buying only what they need right now. That creates even more imbalance, resulting in price volatility that leaves everyone, both consumers and producers, with a headache.

    Regional considerations

    In addition to uncertainties around market fundamentals, it’s important to note that many of the world’s energy reserves are located in regions that have not been models of stability. In the Middle East, wars, revolutions and diplomatic disputes there can raise concerns about supply, demand or both.

    Those worries send shock waves through the world’s energy markets. It’s like walking on a tightrope: One wrong move – or even the perception of a misstep – can make the market wobble.

    Governments’ economic sanctions, such as those restricting trade with Iran, Russia or Venezuela, can distort production and investment decisions and disrupt trade flows. Sometimes markets react even before sanctions are officially in place: Just the rumor of a possible embargo can cause prices to spike as buyers scramble to secure resources.

    In 2008, for example, India and Vietnam imposed rice export bans, and rumors of additional restrictions fueled panic buying and nearly doubled prices in months.

    In those scrambles, the role of investor speculation enters the picture. Energy commodities, such as oil and gas, aren’t just physical resources; they’re also traded as financial assets like stocks and bonds. During uncertain times, traders don’t wait around for actual changes in supply and demand. They react to news and forecasts, sometimes in large groups, which can shift the market just with the actions that result from their fears or hopes.

    The events on June 22, 2025, are a good example of how this dynamic works. The Iranian parliament passed a resolution authorizing the country’s Supreme Council to close the Strait of Hormuz. Immediately, oil prices started rising, even though the strait was still open, with oil tankers steaming through unimpeded.

    The next day, Iran launched a missile strike on Qatar, but coordinated in advance with Qatari officials to minimize damage and casualties. Traders and analysts perceived the action as a de-escalatory signal and anticipated that the Supreme Council was not going to close the strait. So prices started to fall.

    It was a price roller coaster, fueled by speculation rather than reality. And computer algorithms and artificial intelligence, which assist in making automated trades, only add to the chaos of price changes.

    Shipping activity in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz decreased after Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

    A broader look

    International crises can also cause wider changes in countries’ economies – or the global economy as a whole – which in turn affect the energy market.

    If a crisis sparks a recession, rising inflation or high unemployment, those tend to cause people and businesses to use less energy. When the underlying situation stabilizes, recovery efforts can mean energy consumption resumes. But it’s like a pendulum swinging back and forth, with energy markets caught in the middle.

    Renewable energy is not immune to international crisis and chaos. The supply is less affected by market forces: The amount of available sunlight and wind isn’t tied to geopolitical relations. But overall economic conditions still affect demand, and a crisis can disrupt the supply chains for the equipment needed to harness renewable energy, like solar panels and wind turbines.

    It’s no wonder energy markets are so jittery during international crises. A mix of imbalances between supply and demand, vulnerable infrastructure, political tensions, corporate worries and speculative trading all weave together into a complex web of volatility.

    For policymakers, investors and consumers, understanding these dynamics is key to navigating the ups and downs of energy markets in a crisis-prone world. The solutions aren’t simple, but being informed is the first step toward stability.

    Skip York is a nonresident fellow for Global Oil and Energy with the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. He also is the Chief Energy Strategist at Turner Mason & Company, an energy consulting firm.

    – ref. Why energy markets fluctuate during an international crisis – https://theconversation.com/why-energy-markets-fluctuate-during-an-international-crisis-259839

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: What Trump’s budget proposal says about his environmental values

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Stan Meiburg, Executive Director, Sabin Center for Environment and Sustainability, Wake Forest University

    The president’s spending proposal doesn’t leave much behind. Alexey Kravchuk/iStock / Getty Images Plus

    To understand the federal government’s true priorities, follow the money.

    After months of saying his administration is committed to clean air and water for Americans, President Donald Trump has proposed a detailed budget for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for fiscal year 2026. The proposal is more consistent with his administration’s numerous recent actions and announcements that reduce protection for public health and the environment.

    To us, former EPA leaders – one a longtime career employee and the other a political appointee – the budget proposal reveals a lot about what Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin want to accomplish.

    According to the administration’s Budget in Brief document, total EPA funding for the fiscal year beginning October 2025 would drop from US$9.14 billion to $4.16 billion – a 54% decrease from the budget enacted by Congress for fiscal 2025 and less than half of EPA’s budget in any year of the first Trump administration.

    Without taking inflation into account, this would be the smallest EPA budget since 1986. Adjusted for inflation, it would be the smallest budget since the Ford administration, even though Congress has for decades given EPA more responsibility to clean up and protect the nation’s air and water; handle hazardous chemicals and waste; protect drinking water; clean up environmental contamination; and evaluate the safety of a wide range of chemicals used in commerce and industry. These expansions reflected a bipartisan consensus that protecting public health and the environment is a national priority.

    The budget process in brief

    Federal budgeting is complicated, and EPA’s budget is particularly so. Here are some basics:

    Each year, the president and Congress determine how much money will be spent on what things, and by which agencies. The familiar aphorism that “the president proposes, Congress disposes” captures the Constitution’s process for the federal budget, with Congress firmly holding the “power of the purse.”

    EPA’s budget can be difficult to understand because individual programs may be funded from different sources. It is useful to consider it as a pie sliced into five main pieces:

    • Environmental programs and management: the day-to-day work of protecting air, water and land.
    • Science and technology: research on pollution, health effects and new environmental tools.
    • Superfund and trust funds: cleaning up contaminated sites and responding to emergency releases of pollution.
    • State and Tribal operating grants: supporting local implementation of environmental laws.
    • State capitalization grants: revolving loans for water infrastructure.

    The Trump administration’s budget proposals for EPA represent a striking retreat from the national goals of clean air and clean water enacted in federal laws over the past 55 years. In the budget document, the administration argues that the federal government has done enough and that the protection of gains already achieved, as well as any further progress, should not be paid for with federal money.

    This budget would reduce EPA’s ability to protect public health and the environment to a bare minimum at best. Most dramatic and, in our view, most significant are the elimination of operating grants to state governments, drastic reductions in funding for science of all kinds, and elimination of EPA programs relating to climate change and environmental justice, which addresses situations of disproportionate environmental harm to vulnerable populations. It would cut regulatory and enforcement activities that the administration sees as inconsistent with fossil energy development. Other proposed changes, notably for Superfund and capitalization grants, are more nuanced.

    These changes to EPA’s regular budget allocation are separate from changes to supplementary EPA funding that have also been in the news, including for projects specified in the Inflation Reduction Act and other specific laws.

    Environmental programs and management

    Funding for basic work to protect the environment and prevent pollution would be cut by 22%. The reductions are not spread equally, however. All activities related to climate change would be eliminated, including the Energy Star program and greenhouse gas reporting and tracking. Funding for civil and criminal enforcement of environmental laws and regulations would be cut by 69% and 50%, respectively.

    The popular Brownfields program would be cut by 50%. Since 1995, $2.9 billion in federal funds have produced public and private investments totaling $42 billion for cleaning and redeveloping contaminated sites, and created more than 200,000 jobs.

    A program to set standards and conduct training for safe removal of lead paint and other lead-containing materials from homes and businesses would be eliminated.

    The administration has been clear that EPA will no longer do environmental justice work, such as funding to monitor toxic air emissions in low-income neighborhoods adjacent to industrial areas. This budget is consistent with that.

    Science and technology

    Scientific support functions would be cut by 34%. The Office of Research and Development would go from about 1,500 staff to about 500 and would be redistributed throughout the agency. This would diminish science that supports not just EPA’s work but that of organizations, industries, health care professionals and public and private researchers who benefit from EPA’s research.

    A former uranium mill in Colorado is just one of the nation’s extremely contaminated Superfund sites awaiting federal money for cleanup.
    RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

    Superfund and other trust funds

    Superfund is by far the largest of EPA’s cleanup trust funds. It allows EPA to clean up contaminated sites. It also forces the parties responsible for the contamination to either perform cleanups or reimburse the government for EPA-led cleanup work. When there is no viable responsible party, Superfund gives EPA the funds and authority to clean up contaminated sites.

    Prior to 2021, Superfund was funded through EPA’s annual budget. In 2021 and 2022, Congress restored taxes on selected chemicals and petroleum products to help pay for Superfund. During the Biden administration, EPA reduced the Superfund’s line in the general budget, with the expectation that the Superfund tax revenues would more than make up for the reduction. Administrator Zeldin, who has said that site cleanup is a priority, is proposing to shift virtually all funding for cleanups to these new tax revenues.

    There is risk in this approach, however. The Superfund tax expires in 2031 and has raised less than Treasury Department predictions in both 2023 and 2024. In fiscal year 2024, available tax receipts were predicted to be $2.5 billion, but only $1.4 billion was collected. Future funding is uncertain because it depends on the amounts of various chemicals that companies actually use. Experts disagree on whether this is significant for the Superfund program. The petrochemical industry, on whom this tax largely falls, is lobbying for its repeal.

    Funds to address leaks at gas station tanks would be cut nearly in half. Funds to clean up oil and petroleum spills would be cut by 24%.

    State operating grants

    The budget proposal seeks to reset the EPA’s relationship with state agencies, which implement the vast majority of environmental regulations.

    EPA has long delegated some of its powers to state environmental agencies, including permitting, inspections and enforcement of regulations that govern air, water and soil pollution. Since the 1970s, EPA has helped fund those activities through basic operating grants that require minimum state contributions and reward larger state investments with additional federal dollars.

    The proposed budget would eliminate all of those grants to states – totaling $1 billion. The document itself explains that federal funding over decades has totaled “hundreds of billions of dollars” and has resulted in programs that “are mature or have accomplished their purpose.”

    States disagree. They note that EPA has delegated 90% of the nation’s environmental protection work to state authorities, and states have accepted that workload based on the expectation of federal funding. The states say reduced funding would greatly diminish the actual work of environmental protection – site inspections, air and water monitoring, and enforcement – across the country.

    State capitalization grants

    Since 1987, EPA has given states money for revolving loan programs that provide low-interest loans to state and local governments to clean up waterways and provide safe drinking water. The proposed budget would cut that funding by 89%, from $2.8 billion to $305 million.

    These capitalization grants were originally envisioned as seed money, with future loans available as the initial and subsequent loans were repaid. But the need for water infrastructure continues to grow, and Congress has for many years allocated additional money to the program.

    In protecting the environment, you get what you pay for. In past years, Congress has refused to accept proposed drastic cuts to EPA’s budget. It remains to be seen whether this Congress will go along with these proposed rollbacks.

    Stan Meiburg is a volunteer with the Environmental Protection Network. He was an employee of the Environmental Protection Agency from 1977 to 2017.

    i have worked at the US EPA twice. During the Obama Administration, i was first principal deputy to the Assistant Administrator of the Office of Air and Radiation and then Acting Assistant Administrator. During the Biden Administration, I was Deputy Administrator. I am also a volunteer with the Environmental Protection Network.

    – ref. What Trump’s budget proposal says about his environmental values – https://theconversation.com/what-trumps-budget-proposal-says-about-his-environmental-values-258962

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How Zohran Mamdani’s win in the New York City mayoral primary could ripple across the country

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lincoln Mitchell, Lecturer, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

    New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani speaks to supporters in Brooklyn on May 4, 2025. Madison Swart/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

    Top Republicans and Democrats alike are talking about the sudden rise of 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a state representative who won the Democratic mayoral primary in New York on June 24, 2025, in a surprising victory over more established politicians.

    While President Donald Trump quickly came out swinging with personal attacks against Mamdani, some establishment Democratic politicians say they are concerned about how the democratic socialist’s progressive politics could harm the broader Democratic Party and cause it to lose more centrist voters.

    New York is a unique American city, with a diverse population and historically liberal politics. So, does a primary mayoral election in New York serve as any kind of harbinger of what could come in the rest of the country?

    Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with Lincoln Mitchell, a political strategy and campaign specialist who lectures at Columbia University, to understand what Mamdani’s primary win might indicate about the direction of national politics.

    New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, center, greets voters with New York Comptroller Brad Lander, right, on the Upper West Side on June 24, 2025.
    Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

    Does Mamdani’s primary win offer any indication of how the Democratic Party might be transforming on a national level?

    Mamdani’s win is clearly a rebuke of the more corporate wing of the Democratic Party. I know there are people who say that New York is different from the rest of the country. But from a political perspective, Democrats in New York are less different from Democrats in the rest of country than they used to be.

    That’s because the rest of America is so much more diverse than it used to be. But if you look at progressive politicians now in the House of Representatives and state legislatures, they are being elected from all over – not just in big cities like New York anymore.

    Andrew Cuomo, the former governor of New York, ran an absolutely terrible mayoral campaign. He tried to build a political coalition that is no longer a winning one, which was made up of majorities of African Americans, outer-borough white New Yorkers and orthodox and conservative Jews. Thirty or 40 years ago, that was a powerful coalition. Today, it could not make up a majority.

    Mamdani visualized and created what a 2025 progressive coalition looks like in New York and recognized that it is going to look different than the past. Mamdani’s coalition was based around young, white people – many of them with college degrees who are worried about affordability – ideological lefties and immigrants from parts of the Global South, including the Caribbean and parts of Africa, South Asia and South America.

    When you say a new kind of political coalition, what policy priorities bring Mamdani’s supporters together?

    Mamdani reframed what I would call redistributive economic policies that have long been central to the progressive agenda. A pillar of his campaign is affordability – a brilliant piece of political marketing because who is against affordability? He came up with some affordability-related policies that got enough buzz, like promising free buses. Free buses are great, but it won’t help most working and poor New Yorkers get to work – they take the subway.

    He has been very critical of Israel and has weathered charges of antisemitism.

    In the older New York, progressive politicians such as the late Congressman Charlie Rangel were very hawkish on Israel.

    What Mamdani understood is that in today’s America, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party does not care if somebody is, sounds like or comes close to being antisemitic. For those people, calling someone antisemitic sounds Trumpy, and they understand it as a right-wing hit, rather than the legitimate expression of concerns from Jewish people. Some liberals think that claims of antisemitism are simply something done just by those on the right to damage or discredit progressive politicians, but antisemitism is real.

    Therefore, Mamdani’s record on the Jewish issue did not hurt him in the campaign, but he needs to build bridges to Jewish voters, or he will not be able to govern New York City.

    How else did Mamdani appeal to a base of supporters?

    He got the support of “limousine liberals” – including rich, high-profile, progressive people. His supporters include Ella Emhoff, a model and the stepdaughter of Kamala Harris, and the actress Cynthia Nixon, but there were many others. Supporting Mamdani became stylish – almost de rigueur – among certain segments of affluent New York.

    Mamdani is also a true New Yorker and the voice of a new kind of immigrant. His parents are from Uganda and India. But he is also the child of extreme privilege – his mother, Mira Nair, is a well-known filmmaker, and his father is an accomplished professor. Mamdani went to top schools in New York and knows how to play in elite circles, and with white people. He is a Muslim man whose roots are in the Global South, not threatening because he knows how to speak their language.

    But to people of color and immigrants, Mamdani is also one of them. Because of Mamdani’s interesting background, he brought the limousine liberals together with the aunties from Bangladesh.

    Finally, on the charisma scale, Mamdani was so far ahead of other Democratic candidates. Who is going to make better TikTok videos – the good-looking, young man whose mother is a world-famous movie producer, or the older guy who is a loving father and husband but gives off dependable dad, rather than hip young guy, vibes?

    People arrive to vote in the New York mayoral primary in Brooklyn on June 24, 2025.
    Spencer Platt/Getty Images

    Is New York City so distinct that you cannot compare politics there to what happens nationwide?

    I think that nationwide or at the state level there is a potential for something similar to a Mamdani coalition, but not a Mamdani coalition exactly. But in a place like Oklahoma, there are people who are in bad economic shape and who will also respond positively to an affordability-focused, Democratic political campaign. Mamdani remade a progressive New York coalition for this moment. Other progressives politicians should copy the spirit of that and reimagine a winning coalition in their city, state or district.

    When Trump was campaigning, he focused at least on making groceries cheaper. Mamdani is one of the few Democrats who took the affordability issue back from Trump and addressed it head on and in a much more honest and relevant way. Trump has the phrase, “Make America Great Again!” That’s a popular slogan on baseball caps for Trump supporters.

    If Mamdani wanted to make a baseball cap, he could just print “Affordability” on it. Boom.

    Other Democratic politicians can take that approach of affordability and reframe it in a way that works in Kansas City or elsewhere.

    Lincoln Mitchell supported Brad Lander in the primary election.

    – ref. How Zohran Mamdani’s win in the New York City mayoral primary could ripple across the country – https://theconversation.com/how-zohran-mamdanis-win-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-primary-could-ripple-across-the-country-259951

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Cascading disasters like those created by Hurricane Helene show why hazard models can’t rely on the past

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Cascading disasters like those created by Hurricane Helene show why hazard models can’t rely on the past – https://theconversation.com/cascading-disasters-like-those-created-by-hurricane-helene-show-why-hazard-models-cant-rely-on-the-past-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI: Free IQ Test Online with Instant Results – Fast, Accurate & Free: QuickIQTest.org Launches Updated 2025 Free IQ Testing Service

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    New York City, June 27, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — QuickIQTest.org launches free IQ test with Instant results and no registration required. The company is proud to announce the official release of its updated free IQ test online, offering instant results through a scientifically designed, user-friendly platform. The new version allows users worldwide to complete an accurate cognitive assessment in under 10 minutes, entirely free and without requiring any personal information or registration.

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    QuickIQTest.org is a leading online resource for cognitive self-assessment. Focused on accessibility, scientific accuracy, and honest reporting, the platform has helped millions of users worldwide better understand their cognitive skills without fees, sign-ups, or invasive data practices.

    Already used by millions, QuickIQTest.org’s latest IQ testing tool provides a fast, accessible way to evaluate fluid intelligence, logical reasoning, numerical comprehension, and spatial pattern recognition. Whether accessed from a smartphone, tablet, or desktop, the test offers a seamless experience across devices.

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    “We created this test to be practical, honest, and available to everyone without barriers,” said a spokesperson for QuickIQTest.org. “With the 2025 update, we’ve focused on delivering speed and scientific accuracy, without compromising user privacy or simplicity.”

    Unlike many free IQ test online service providers that rely on gimmicks or upsells, QuickIQTest.org delivers immediate IQ scores along with a basic breakdown of performance across core cognitive areas. For users seeking a deeper understanding, an optional advanced analysis provides further interpretation of results.

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    This release reinforces the platform’s mission to offer a credible, no-cost tool for individuals looking to understand their cognitive strengths and thinking style better. The test is ideal for:

    • Students exploring their learning profile
    • Educators seeking classroom-ready assessment tools
    • Professionals curious about their problem-solving abilities
    • Anyone interested in how they process and analyze information

    ⇒ Take a Free IQ Test with Instant Results on QuickIQTest.org

    Key Features of the Updated Free IQ Test at QuickIQTest.org:

    • ✅ 100% Free IQ Test Online
    • ✅ Instant Results with No Sign-Up Required
    • ✅ Mobile & Desktop Friendly
    • ✅ Scientifically Designed Questions
    • ✅ Basic and Advanced Score Interpretation Options
    • ✅ No Data Collection to View Results

    As global demand grows for free IQ tests with instant results, QuickIQTest.org sets itself apart by offering a transparent, science-based testing experience without distractions, ads, or misleading scoring tactics.

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    What Is an IQ Test?

    IQ stands for Intelligence Quotient. It is a score derived from standardized tests to measure a person’s ability to reason, solve problems, and recognize patterns. An IQ score reflects how someone performs compared to others in their age group. The average IQ is typically set at 100, with most people scoring between 85 and 115.

    These tests are often used in academic and professional settings to assess cognitive performance. While they don’t measure creativity or emotional understanding, they are a common method for evaluating specific mental skills.

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    The Purpose of IQ Testing

    The primary function of an IQ test is to evaluate how effectively a person processes information. These assessments focus on areas such as:

    • Logical reasoning
    • Pattern recognition
    • Numerical analysis
    • Visual-spatial awareness
    • Short-term memory

    IQ tests are used in education, research, career planning, and personal development. Many people also take them out of curiosity, looking for a clearer picture of how their thinking compares to others.

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    A Brief History of IQ Tests

    The first modern IQ test was created in France in the early 1900s. Psychologist Alfred Binet developed a method to identify students who needed additional academic support. Lewis Terman later adapted his system in the United States at Stanford University, resulting in the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale.

    This version introduced the idea of comparing mental age to actual age, which became the foundation for the IQ scoring model that is still in use today. Over the years, new tests have been developed to include broader types of reasoning and improved scoring accuracy.

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    IQ Testing Today

    Modern IQ tests are often taken online. These tests typically use timed multiple-choice questions designed to measure core thinking abilities. Thanks to digital platforms, users can now take a free IQ test online and receive their score within minutes without needing an in-person appointment or long wait times.

    One widely used option is the test offered at QuickIQTest.org. It provides a science-based format that includes logical and visual tasks. No registration is required, and results are available immediately.

    IQ Tests for Children

    IQ testing is not limited to adults. There are versions specifically designed for children that use age-appropriate questions and scoring. A free IQ test for kids can help parents better understand how their child approaches problem-solving and which tasks they respond to most effectively. The test at QuickIQTest.org offers this option using the same standard of accuracy as the general version.

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    How Do Free IQ Test Online Work?

    Online IQ tests are built around structured tasks that aim to measure specific areas of cognitive function. The most common formats include:

    • Logic puzzles: Identify relationships between shapes or sequences
    • Visual reasoning: Complete or match patterns using spatial awareness
    • Numerical sequences: Find missing values or detect number patterns
    • Short-term memory tasks: Recall and manipulate sets of information

    These formats are designed to measure fluid reasoning and problem-solving ability under controlled conditions.

    The test questions are usually multiple-choice. Users are asked to select the correct answer based on the data presented. Each question is intended to be objective and free from cultural or language bias.

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    Structure of the Test on QuickIQTest.org

    The online IQ test at QuickIQTest.org uses a clear layout and simple instructions. The test begins immediately after the user starts. No login or email is required to initiate or see the results.

    The structure includes a series of progressively challenging tasks. The sequence of questions has been designed by cognitive assessment professionals. All items are displayed one at a time to reduce distractions.

    Most users complete the test in 10 minutes or less. The design allows for fast processing without sacrificing test quality.

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    Timed vs. Untimed Tests

    QuickIQTest.org uses a timed model. Each question must be answered within a certain period. This helps measure how quickly a user can recognize patterns or solve problems. A consistent time limit also allows scores to be compared across various users.

    Some IQ tests allow unlimited time. While this format may reduce pressure, it can produce less reliable results. Users may perform better or worse depending on test-taking habits rather than cognitive processing speed when speed is not controlled.

    The timed approach used at QuickIQTest.org is consistent with most standardized IQ assessments. It helps provide a balanced view of both accuracy and pace.

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    Scoring and Instant Results

    Once the test is complete, scores are generated immediately. This is one of the main advantages of using an online IQ test that is free from QuickIQTest.org.

    The platform uses a proprietary scoring system based on established intelligence testing models. The user’s performance is compared to normative data to produce an IQ score. That score represents where a person falls relative to others in their age group.

    The user receives performance feedback across specific questions along with the overall result. This includes reasoning accuracy, speed, and problem type. No additional sign-up is needed to access these details.

    This format provides a quick and reliable assessment that reflects real cognitive ability for users looking for a free IQ test with instant results.

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    Benefits of Taking a Free IQ Test Online

    Immediate Access to Results

    One of the main reasons people choose to get a free IQ test online is speed. After completing the test on QuickIQTest.org, results are provided instantly. There is no waiting period, and users do not need to provide personal information to receive their scores. This makes the process efficient for anyone seeking immediate feedback.

    For those comparing options, a free accurate IQ test that delivers real-time scoring offers a practical solution. The structure used by QuickIQTest.org allows for quick test completion while maintaining consistency in how answers are evaluated.

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    No Registration Required

    QuickIQTest.org does not require users to create an account or submit contact information. The test can be accessed directly from the homepage, and users receive their results immediately after completion.

    This approach appeals to individuals who prefer to keep testing private. There are no follow-up emails or prompts to share results. The focus remains on allowing users to measure their cognitive ability without added steps.

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    Practical Use Cases

    IQ tests are used for a variety of reasons. Some take them to evaluate personal strengths. Others use the results to support academic or professional planning.

    • Students may use IQ scores to identify areas of strength or prepare for standardized testing.
    • Professionals may take a test to assess their problem-solving ability in preparation for interviews or advancement opportunities.
    • Parents may use a test to better understand their child’s learning style or reasoning skills.

    A free IQ test and results allow exploring these areas without cost or commitment.

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    Compatible Across Devices

    The test at QuickIQTest.org works on most devices, including smartphones, tablets, and laptops. The interface is built for responsive access, with no downloads required.

    This level of access makes it easy for users to complete the test when it is most convenient for them. Whether at home or on a break at work, the platform supports a flexible testing experience.

    Focused Format

    Online testing also removes some of the obstacles found in traditional assessments. There is no need to travel, schedule an appointment, or complete paperwork. Instead, the test is available anytime, and users can begin as soon as they are ready.

    Since the test follows a simple, focused layout, users are not distracted by unrelated content or advertising interruptions.

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    Free vs. Paid Online IQ Tests

    What Free Tests Typically Provide

    A free IQ test online usually offers a short series of timed questions to give a basic overview of a person’s reasoning ability. These questions often cover visual patterns, logic, and numerical sequences. Many users try free versions to get a general sense of how they perform these tasks.

    At QuickIQTest.org, the free IQ test includes a full set of questions and provides an immediate score once the test is completed. Registering or entering an email is not required to see the result. The structure allows users to complete the assessment without delays or access issues.

    The free IQ test with free results includes a performance summary across different types of reasoning. While more detailed reporting is available through the platform’s paid option, the basic score is presented clearly and without restriction.

    ⇒ Get a Free IQ Test with Results – Easy and Quick

    How Paid Versions Compare

    Some users may choose to upgrade for a more detailed breakdown of their score. Paid versions typically offer extended insights into cognitive categories, including logic, spatial awareness, numerical reasoning, and timing accuracy.

    Paid IQ tests can also include downloadable reports, percentile rankings, and score interpretation guides. These may be helpful for individuals using their test results for academic or professional purposes.

    QuickIQTest.org offers this option, but it does not restrict the free version in a way that forces users to pay. The full test and core results remain free to access.

    ⇒ Take an IQ Test Free Online – No Waiting, Instant Results

    When Paid Upgrades Make Sense

    A paid test may be helpful in the following situations:

    • When a user needs a full cognitive profile for documentation or planning
    • When applying for certain academic programs or training institutions
    • When preparing for high-level job assessments that include aptitude testing

    The extended score analysis can provide more detailed insight than the basic version in these cases.

    For casual users or those looking to test their ability quickly, the free IQ test online free from QuickIQTest.org is often sufficient.

    ⇒ Reliable Free IQ Test Online with Free Instant Results!

    Warning Signs to Watch For

    While many free IQ test sites claim to offer value, not all follow transparent practices. Some common issues include:

    • Requiring payment before showing the score
    • Showing inflated results with no explanation of how the score was calculated
    • Redirecting users to unrelated offers or subscriptions
    • Requiring full personal information to unlock any results

    These signs suggest that the test is focused on data collection or marketing, not accurate scoring.

    QuickIQTest.org avoids these tactics by providing a free IQ test with free results that are accessible, clear, and independent of promotional pressure.

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    How to Prepare for a Free IQ Test Online

    One of the most effective ways to prepare for a free IQ test online is to become familiar with the questions you will likely encounter. These usually include:

    • Number sequences
    • Visual pattern recognition
    • Logical reasoning tasks
    • Short-term memory questions
    • Word problems or analogies

    Practicing similar formats can help reduce hesitation during the actual test. These question types can be found in logic puzzle books or educational apps. Reviewing examples in advance can help build confidence.

    ⇒ Try the IQ Test Free Online at QuickIQTest.org

    Set Up a Focused Environment

    Taking the test in a quiet and comfortable space can help reduce distractions. Before beginning, it’s recommended to:

    • Choose a time of day when you feel alert
    • Turn off phone notifications or close other browser tabs
    • Use headphones if background noise is a concern
    • Have a pen and paper nearby if you prefer to make notes

    The test at QuickIQTest.org is timed, so being prepared before starting allows you to focus on answering questions without interruptions.

    Manage Test Anxiety

    Some users may feel pressure when taking a timed test, especially if unfamiliar with the format. Keeping expectations realistic can reduce unnecessary stress.

    Here are a few basic strategies to manage test anxiety:

    • Take a few minutes to breathe deeply before starting
    • Remember that the score reflects performance at one moment, not overall intelligence
    • Stay focused on one question at a time
    • Move on if a question takes too long, and return to it later if possible

    Staying calm often leads to better performance than over-preparing or worrying about the outcome.

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    Rest and Mental Warmups

    Being well-rested can improve concentration and reduce mistakes. Try to get adequate sleep the night before and avoid taking the test when tired or distracted.

    Before starting the test, consider doing a short mental warmup. This could include:

    • Solving a few basic math problems
    • Looking at a sample logic puzzle
    • Reading a short article to get your mind working

    These steps help activate the thinking processes used during the test without causing fatigue.

    Use the Test as a Self-Check

    An IQ test is one way to observe how you approach problem-solving under time pressure. It does not require weeks of preparation. Reviewing question types and setting up a calm space can be enough for most users to feel ready.

    For those looking to take a free IQ test and free results, QuickIQTest.org offers a format that requires no registration and gives results immediately. You can take the IQ test for free and repeat it later to see how consistent your scores are over time.

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    Most Accurate Free IQ Test Online With Instant Results in 2025


    What Accuracy Means in IQ Testing

    Accuracy in an IQ test refers to how well it measures the abilities it is designed to assess. A well-designed test should reflect actual reasoning skills, not test-taking tricks or memorized answers. This includes clear questions, controlled timing, and scoring models based on extensive sample data.

    Tests that adjust difficulty, apply consistent time limits, and avoid bias tend to produce more dependable scores. Randomized question order, structured answer formats, and logic-based scoring models help reduce user inconsistencies.

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    Key Features That Contribute to Accuracy

    Several technical factors improve the reliability of an online IQ test:

    • Standardized scoring: Results are calibrated against age-based norms
    • Balanced question design: Covers a wide range of reasoning tasks
    • Time control: Limits help reduce inflated scores caused by prolonged thinking
    • Adaptive feedback: Some platforms tailor scores based on speed and accuracy

    These features help prevent results from being skewed by guessing, overthinking, or external interference.

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    Why QuickIQTest.org is Considered a Leading Option

    QuickIQTest.org is often recommended by users who want a reliable, fast, and unbiased cognitive test. It includes:

    • A fixed set of logic-based tasks
    • A consistent, timed format
    • Instant scoring based on data models that reflect a broad user base
    • No registration or user tracking required to access the results

    Each score uses established test theory principles modeled after long-standing IQ frameworks in education and psychology. This positions the site as a strong option for users seeking the most accurate IQ test available for free.

    The test has been used by students, professionals, and teachers across different fields. Many have cited its simplicity and fairness as reasons they recommend it to others.

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    Understanding Your IQ Score

    How Scores Are Calculated

    An IQ score is a number used to indicate how a person performed on a structured reasoning ability test compared to others in the same age group. Most modern IQ tests use a scale where the average score is 100.

    This number does not change significantly between test platforms that follow recognized standards. A proper scoring system compares individual results to a large sample of test-takers. Scores are then grouped into categories for interpretation.

    General Score Ranges

    IQ scores are often organized into bands that reflect different types of performance. While specific labels can vary by test, the general breakdown is as follows:

    • Below 85: Below average
    • 85 to 99: Low average
    • 100 to 114: Average range
    • 115 to 129: Above average
    • 130 and above: High ability or gifted range

    QuickIQTest.org uses this common structure to present scores clearly. After finishing the test, users receive their number score and an explanation of the performance range.

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    What the Score Means

    The score reflects how well the user completed reasoning tasks under controlled conditions. It does not measure creativity, motivation, knowledge, or communication skills. It is also not a prediction of future success. Instead, it shows how someone performed on a specific type of problem-solving under time pressure.

    For this reason, scores may change slightly between attempts, especially if a user is more familiar with the format the second time. Consistency across attempts is one way to check for reliability.

    How QuickIQTest.org Presents Results

    After completing the free IQ test with results, users are shown:

    • Their overall IQ score
    • A basic breakdown of task types (e.g., logic, patterns, numbers)
    • A brief interpretation of the score range

    There is no requirement to register to access these details. The feedback is available immediately after completing the test.

    The platform also allows users to try the test again at any time. This can help track progress or compare scores across different days or devices.

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    Free IQ Tests for Kids, Teens, and Adults

    Why Age Matters in IQ Testing

    IQ scores reflect how a person performs with others in the same age group. This is why age is a key factor in the test format and the interpretation of results. A test that does not account for age can produce misleading outcomes.

    Children, teens, and adults often process information differently. The types of tasks they handle best and the time needed to complete them may vary. An accurate IQ test should use a scoring model that adjusts for these differences.

    Use Cases by Age Group

    IQ tests are used for different purposes depending on the age of the person taking them:

    • Kids: Educators and parents may use test results to understand learning strengths or to determine if further evaluation is needed for gifted programs or academic support.
    • Teens: Testing during high school can help students explore their problem-solving skills before choosing courses or college plans.
    • Adults: Some adults take IQ tests to assess their general reasoning ability or prepare for assessments in employment or training programs.

    Each group benefits from a structured test and scores according to typical performance ranges for that age.

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    How QuickIQTest.org Accommodates All Age Groups

    QuickIQTest.org offers a consistent testing format appropriate for a wide range of users. The questions reflect general reasoning ability without relying on specific academic knowledge. This makes the test suitable for children, teens, and adults.

    For younger users, a version of the free IQ test for kids includes simpler language and visual-based questions. The scoring is adjusted to reflect developmental benchmarks rather than adult standards. Parents can use this version to get a general understanding of their child’s reasoning style.

    Teens and adults use the standard version, which includes a broader mix of logic, pattern, and number-based tasks. All users receive a clear score at the end of the test, and the process remains the same across devices.

    QuickIQTest.org provides an IQ test online free of charge with no registration needed. The test is timed, results are given instantly, and users can retake it to check consistency.

    Whether used in a school setting, at home, or during career planning, the platform supports access for users at different stages of learning and development.

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    Is a Free Online IQ Test Legitimate?

    Traditional IQ assessments are often administered by licensed psychologists in a controlled setting. These tests may take one to two hours, involve verbal interviews, and include subtests scored manually. They are sometimes used in academic placement, psychological evaluations, or legal matters.

    Online IQ tests, by comparison, are self-directed and usually shorter. While they do not replace a full clinical evaluation, they can still offer valid feedback when built on recognized test design principles.

    The key difference is scope. A clinical test may assess more variables. An online test focuses on speed, logic, and pattern-based reasoning.

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    What Makes a Free Online IQ Test Credible

    A legitimate online IQ test follows specific practices that support fair scoring and user trust. These include:

    • Standardized test structure
    • Clear question formatting
    • Time limits for each section
    • Results based on sample population scoring models
    • No requirement to pay or register to access scores

    A site that uses inconsistent timing, does not explain scores, or inflates results without justification should be viewed cautiously.

    A real IQ test online also avoids advertising pressure or unrelated offers during test-taking. If a user is constantly redirected or asked for irrelevant information, it may not be a trustworthy source.

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    Why QuickIQTest.org Is Considered Reliable

    QuickIQTest.org is a legit and accurate free IQ test online used by individuals seeking a fast, structured way to evaluate basic reasoning ability. It uses a fixed test format, applies a consistent time frame for each user, and presents results immediately after the test.

    The scoring model is based on standard cognitive testing practices. The test includes logical reasoning, visual sequencing, and numeric analysis, all scored against a baseline designed to reflect average performance ranges.

    Users do not need to sign up or pay to access their scores. The platform does not collect personal data in exchange for results. This approach supports transparency and reduces barriers to testing.

    QuickIQTest.org has been used by students, job applicants, educators, and others looking to check cognitive problem-solving ability quickly. While it is not a substitute for a full clinical exam, it provides accurate feedback in a short format.

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    Conclusion

    QuickIQTest.org offers a free IQ test with instant results that is accurate, fast, and easy to access. The test follows a standardized structure, uses time-based scoring, and does not require registration. Users of all ages can complete the test on any device and receive immediate results backed by a real scoring model.

    Whether you’re looking for a legit IQ test online, a free accurate IQ test, or a iq test free online for kids, the platform provides a reliable option without unnecessary steps.

    FAQs

    What is the best free IQ test online with instant results?

    If you’re looking for a free IQ test with instant results, QuickIQTest.org offers one of the most trusted and scientifically designed options. It delivers fast scoring and immediate feedback without requiring registration.

    Can I really get an accurate IQ test for free?

    Yes, many platforms now offer an IQ test for free that is both reliable and informative. QuickIQTest.org provides a free IQ test online that evaluates core cognitive skills with a validated scoring model.

    Is there an IQ test free online with no registration needed?

    Absolutely. QuickIQTest.org offers a free IQ test online free of sign-ups. You can take the test instantly and receive results in under 10 minutes without creating an account or providing personal data.

    Where can I find a free IQ test with free results?

    You can access a free IQ test with free results at QuickIQTest.org. It’s completely free to take, and your score breakdown is available right after completion—no hidden fees or upsells.

    How long does it take to complete a free online IQ test?

    Most free online IQ test options take between 8 to 12 minutes. The one on QuickIQTest.org is designed to be efficient and accurate, offering a fast way to test your intelligence from any device.

    Do free IQ tests provide reliable results?

    While not all IQ test online free platforms are created equal, some like QuickIQTest.org use standardized question patterns and deliver credible results. It’s a free IQ test with results that reflect core aspects of intelligence.

    Are free IQ tests suitable for students and professionals?

    Yes, a high-quality free IQ test with results can be valuable for students, professionals, and anyone curious about their cognitive abilities. It helps identify strengths in logic, reasoning, and problem-solving.

    Can I take a free IQ test on my phone or tablet?

    Definitely. QuickIQTest.org offers a free IQ test online that’s fully optimized for mobile and desktop. You can complete the test on any device without downloading anything.

    What’s included in a free IQ test with instant results?

    typical free IQ test with instant results includes a score summary and performance breakdown across areas like pattern recognition, logic, and numerical reasoning—all delivered immediately after the test.

    Is there a free IQ test and free results option with no hidden costs?

     Yes. Platforms like QuickIQTest.org provide a free IQ test and free results with no hidden fees or tricks. You can test your IQ and view your score instantly without entering payment information.

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    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Toxic algae blooms are lasting longer in Lake Erie − why that’s a worry for people and pets

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gregory J. Dick, Professor of Biology, University of Michigan

    A satellite image from Aug. 13, 2024, shows an algal bloom covering approximately 320 square miles (830 square km) of Lake Erie. By Aug. 22, it had nearly doubled in size. NASA Earth Observatory

    Federal scientists released their annual forecast for Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms on June 26, 2025, and they expect a mild to moderate season. However, anyone who comes in contact with the blooms can face health risks, and it’s worth remembering that 2014, when toxins from algae blooms contaminated the water supply in Toledo, Ohio, was considered a moderate year, too.

    We asked Gregory J. Dick, who leads the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, a federally funded center at the University of Michigan that studies harmful algal blooms among other Great Lakes issues, why they’re such a concern.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction for harmful algal bloom severity in Lake Erie compared with past years.
    NOAA

    1. What causes harmful algal blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms are dense patches of excessive algae growth that can occur in any type of water body, including ponds, reservoirs, rivers, lakes and oceans. When you see them in freshwater, you’re typically seeing cyanobacteria, also known as blue-green algae.

    These photosynthetic bacteria have inhabited our planet for billions of years. In fact, they were responsible for oxygenating Earth’s atmosphere, which enabled plant and animal life as we know it.

    The leading source of harmful algal blooms today is nutrient runoff from fertilized farm fields.
    Michigan Sea Grant

    Algae are natural components of ecosystems, but they cause trouble when they proliferate to high densities, creating what we call blooms.

    Harmful algal blooms form scums at the water surface and produce toxins that can harm ecosystems, water quality and human health. They have been reported in all 50 U.S. states, all five Great Lakes and nearly every country around the world. Blue-green algae blooms are becoming more common in inland waters.

    The main sources of harmful algal blooms are excess nutrients in the water, typically phosphorus and nitrogen.

    Historically, these excess nutrients mainly came from sewage and phosphorus-based detergents used in laundry machines and dishwashers that ended up in waterways. U.S. environmental laws in the early 1970s addressed this by requiring sewage treatment and banning phosphorus detergents, with spectacular success.

    How pollution affected Lake Erie in the 1960s, before clean water regulations.

    Today, agriculture is the main source of excess nutrients from chemical fertilizer or manure applied to farm fields to grow crops. Rainstorms wash these nutrients into streams and rivers that deliver them to lakes and coastal areas, where they fertilize algal blooms. In the U.S., most of these nutrients come from industrial-scale corn production, which is largely used as animal feed or to produce ethanol for gasoline.

    Climate change also exacerbates the problem in two ways. First, cyanobacteria grow faster at higher temperatures. Second, climate-driven increases in precipitation, especially large storms, cause more nutrient runoff that has led to record-setting blooms.

    2. What does your team’s DNA testing tell us about Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms contain a mixture of cyanobacterial species that can produce an array of different toxins, many of which are still being discovered.

    When my colleagues and I recently sequenced DNA from Lake Erie water, we found new types of microcystins, the notorious toxins that were responsible for contaminating Toledo’s drinking water supply in 2014.

    These novel molecules cannot be detected with traditional methods and show some signs of causing toxicity, though further studies are needed to confirm their human health effects.

    Blue-green algae blooms in freshwater, like this one near Toledo in 2014, can be harmful to humans, causing gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, fever and skin irritation. They can be lethal for pets.
    Ty Wright for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    We also found organisms responsible for producing saxitoxin, a potent neurotoxin that is well known for causing paralytic shellfish poisoning on the Pacific Coast of North America and elsewhere.

    Saxitoxins have been detected at low concentrations in the Great Lakes for some time, but the recent discovery of hot spots of genes that make the toxin makes them an emerging concern.

    Our research suggests warmer water temperatures could boost its production, which raises concerns that saxitoxin will become more prevalent with climate change. However, the controls on toxin production are complex, and more research is needed to test this hypothesis. Federal monitoring programs are essential for tracking and understanding emerging threats.

    3. Should people worry about these blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms are unsightly and smelly, making them a concern for recreation, property values and businesses. They can disrupt food webs and harm aquatic life, though a recent study suggested that their effects on the Lake Erie food web so far are not substantial.

    But the biggest impact is from the toxins these algae produce that are harmful to humans and lethal to pets.

    The toxins can cause acute health problems such as gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, fever and skin irritation. Dogs can die from ingesting lake water with harmful algal blooms. Emerging science suggests that long-term exposure to harmful algal blooms, for example over months or years, can cause or exacerbate chronic respiratory, cardiovascular and gastrointestinal problems and may be linked to liver cancers, kidney disease and neurological issues.

    The water intake system for the city of Toledo, Ohio, is surrounded by an algae bloom in 2014. Toxic algae got into the water system, resulting in residents being warned not to touch or drink their tap water for three days.
    AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari

    In addition to exposure through direct ingestion or skin contact, recent research also indicates that inhaling toxins that get into the air may harm health, raising concerns for coastal residents and boaters, but more research is needed to understand the risks.

    The Toledo drinking water crisis of 2014 illustrated the vast potential for algal blooms to cause harm in the Great Lakes. Toxins infiltrated the drinking water system and were detected in processed municipal water, resulting in a three-day “do not drink” advisory. The episode affected residents, hospitals and businesses, and it ultimately cost the city an estimated US$65 million.

    4. Blooms seem to be starting earlier in the year and lasting longer – why is that happening?

    Warmer waters are extending the duration of the blooms.

    In 2025, NOAA detected these toxins in Lake Erie on April 28, earlier than ever before. The 2022 bloom in Lake Erie persisted into November, which is rare if not unprecedented.

    Scientific studies of western Lake Erie show that the potential cyanobacterial growth rate has increased by up to 30% and the length of the bloom season has expanded by up to a month from 1995 to 2022, especially in warmer, shallow waters. These results are consistent with our understanding of cyanobacterial physiology: Blooms like it hot – cyanobacteria grow faster at higher temperatures.

    5. What can be done to reduce the likelihood of algal blooms in the future?

    The best and perhaps only hope of reducing the size and occurrence of harmful algal blooms is to reduce the amount of nutrients reaching the Great Lakes.

    In Lake Erie, where nutrients come primarily from agriculture, that means improving agricultural practices and restoring wetlands to reduce the amount of nutrients flowing off of farm fields and into the lake. Early indications suggest that Ohio’s H2Ohio program, which works with farmers to reduce runoff, is making some gains in this regard, but future funding for H2Ohio is uncertain.

    In places like Lake Superior, where harmful algal blooms appear to be driven by climate change, the solution likely requires halting and reversing the rapid human-driven increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

    Gregory J. Dick receives funding for harmful algal bloom research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the United States Geological Survey, and the National Institutes for Health. He serves on the Science Advisory Council for the Environmental Law and Policy Center.

    – ref. Toxic algae blooms are lasting longer in Lake Erie − why that’s a worry for people and pets – https://theconversation.com/toxic-algae-blooms-are-lasting-longer-in-lake-erie-why-thats-a-worry-for-people-and-pets-259954

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: New expertise joins NI Public Sector Transformation Board

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    News story

    New expertise joins NI Public Sector Transformation Board

    Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Hilary Benn MP welcomes the news of the appointment of two new members to the Public Sector Transformation Board.

    • The expansion of the Board follows a productive agreement with the Finance Minister John O’Dowd MLA to update the Terms of Reference for the Transformation Board.
    • The two new expert board members are; Gareth Hetherington, Director of Ulster University Economic Policy; and, Professor Helen McCarthy, the NI Executive’s Chief Scientific Officer.
    • The Second Call has now launched to allocate the remaining £102 million of UK Government funding which will help improve public services, and address many of the challenges faced by people across Northern Ireland.

    Hilary Benn MP said:

    The significant progress made since the establishment of the Board has been really important. I was delighted to welcome the first tranche of funding in March this year when £129m was confirmed to help fund six transformation projects across the Departments of Health, Justice, Education and Infrastructure.

    The appointment of Gareth Hetherington and Professor Helen McCarthy will bolster the expertise of the Board as it assesses projects eligible for the remaining £102m allocation for transformation of public services in Northern Ireland. This funding will help build more resilient and responsive public services that better meet the needs of people across Northern Ireland.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: New expertise joins NI Public Sector Transformation Board

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    News story

    New expertise joins NI Public Sector Transformation Board

    Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Hilary Benn MP welcomes the news of the appointment of two new members to the Public Sector Transformation Board.

    • The expansion of the Board follows a productive agreement with the Finance Minister John O’Dowd MLA to update the Terms of Reference for the Transformation Board.
    • The two new expert board members are; Gareth Hetherington, Director of Ulster University Economic Policy; and, Professor Helen McCarthy, the NI Executive’s Chief Scientific Officer.
    • The Second Call has now launched to allocate the remaining £102 million of UK Government funding which will help improve public services, and address many of the challenges faced by people across Northern Ireland.

    Hilary Benn MP said:

    The significant progress made since the establishment of the Board has been really important. I was delighted to welcome the first tranche of funding in March this year when £129m was confirmed to help fund six transformation projects across the Departments of Health, Justice, Education and Infrastructure.

    The appointment of Gareth Hetherington and Professor Helen McCarthy will bolster the expertise of the Board as it assesses projects eligible for the remaining £102m allocation for transformation of public services in Northern Ireland. This funding will help build more resilient and responsive public services that better meet the needs of people across Northern Ireland.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The ‘Godfather of Human Rights’ Ken Roth on genocide, Trump and standing up for democracy

    By Richard Larsen, RNZ News producer — 30′ with Guyon Espiner

    The former head of Human Rights Watch — and son of a Holocaust survivor — says Israel’s military campaign in Gaza will likely meet the legal definition of genocide, citing large-scale killings, the targeting of civilians, and the words of senior Israeli officials.

    Speaking on 30′ with Guyon Espiner, Ken Roth agreed Hamas committed “blatant war crimes” in its attack on Israel on October 7 last year, which included the abduction and murder of civilians.

    But he said it was a “basic rule” that war crimes by one side do not justify war crimes by the other.

    There was indisputable evidence Israel had committed war crimes in Gaza and might also be pursuing tactics that fit the international legal standard for genocide, Roth said.

    30′ with Guyon Espiner Kenneth Roth    Video: RNZ

    “The acts are there — mass killing, destruction of life-sustaining conditions. And there are statements from senior officials that point clearly to intent,” Roth said.

    He cited comments immediately after the October 7 attack by Hamas from Israel’s former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who referred to Gazans as “human animals”.

    Israeli President Isaac Herzog also said “an entire nation” was responsible for the attack and the notion of “unaware, uninvolved civilians is not true,” referring to the Palestinean people. Herzog subsequently said his words were taken out of context during a case at the International Court of Justice.

    The accusation of genocide is hotly contested. Israel says it is fighting a war of self-defence against Hamas after it killed 1200 people, mostly civilians. It claims it adheres to international law and does its best to protect civilians.

    It blames Hamas for embedding itself in civilian areas.

    But Roth believes a ruling may ultimately come from the International Court of Justice, especially if a forthcoming judgment on Myanmar sets a precedent.

    “It’s very similar to what Myanmar did with the Rohingya,” he said. “Kill about 30,000 to send 730,000 fleeing. It’s not just about mass death. It’s about creating conditions where life becomes impossible.”

    ‘Apartheid’ alleged in Israel’s West Bank
     Roth has been described as the ‘Godfather of Human Rights’, and is credited with vastly expanding the influence of the Human Rights Watch group during a 29-year tenure in charge of the organisation.

    In the full interview with Guyon Espiner, Roth defended the group’s 2021 report that accused Israel of enforcing a system of apartheid in the occupied West Bank.

    “This was not a historical analogy,” he said, implying it was a mistake to compare it with South Africa’s former apartheid regime.

    “It was a legal analysis. We used the UN Convention against Apartheid and the Rome Statute, and laid out over 200 pages of evidence.”

    Kenneth Roth appears via remote link in studio for an interview on season 3 of 30′ with Guyon Espiner. Image: RNZ

    He said the Israeli government was unable to offer a factual rebuttal.

    “They called us biased, antisemitic — the usual. But they didn’t contest the facts.”

    The ‘cheapening’ of antisemitism charges
     Roth, who is Jewish and the son of a Holocaust refugee, said it was disturbing to be accused of antisemitism for criticising a government.

    “There is a real rise in antisemitism around the world. But when the term is used to suppress legitimate criticism of Israel, it cheapens the concept, and that ultimately harms Jews everywhere.”

    Roth said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had long opposed a two-state solution and was now pursuing a status quo that amounted to permanent subjugation of Palestinians, a situation human rights groups say is illegal.

    “The only acceptable outcome is two states, living side by side. Anything else is apartheid, or worse,” Roth said.

    While the international legal process around charges of genocide may take years, Roth is convinced the current actions in Gaza will not be forgotten.

    “This is not just about war,” he said. “It’s about the deliberate use of starvation, displacement and mass killing to achieve political goals. And the law is very clear — that’s a crime.”

    Roth’s criticism of Israel saw him initially denied a fellowship at Harvard University in 2023. The decision was widely seen as politically motivated, and was later reversed after public and academic backlash.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Stronger Health Through Smarter Taxes in Mauritius


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    WHO has joined forces with VISA NGO and the University of Cape Town to assess the impact of increasing health taxes in Mauritius. Using a simulation tool, the study examined how tax hikes affect tobacco use, government revenues, and premature deaths.

    A 15% annual cigarette tax increase could:

    • Boost excise revenue by 55%
    • Reduce smoking prevalence from 18.1% to 17.4%
    • Prevent 11,600 premature deaths by 2029

    Even more ambitious action—a 25% annual increase—could:

    • Double excise revenues
    • Lower smoking prevalence to 16.3%
    • Save 19,300 lives by 2029

    On 20 June 2025, WHO convened high-level officials from the Ministries of Health and Finance to discuss the findings, presented by the University of Cape Town’s Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products and a WHO taxation expert.

    WHO and VISA echoed the study’s call for regular, significant tax increases—one of the most effective ways to curb noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) 

    Earlier, on 26 May, VISA and WHO presented the findings to key stakeholders including the Mauritius Revenue Authority, Ministries of Education and Youth, the University of Mauritius, NGOs, and consumer groups.

    WHO also applauded the Government’s recent decision to raise taxes by 10% on tobacco and alcohol, and 100% on sugary drinks, extending it to products like chocolate and ice cream.

    “This is a gift to public health,” said Dr. Anne Ancia, WHO Representative. “Higher prices on unhealthy products help reduce consumption—especially in a country where obesity, diabetes and cardio-vascular diseases are leading causes of death and disability.”

    Dr. Ancia also stressed the urgent need to enforce the Tobacco Law 2022, particularly the ban on single-stick sales, which undermines progress in reducing tobacco use through higher prices.

    Distributed by APO Group on behalf of World Health Organization (WHO) – Mauritius.

    MIL OSI Africa –