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Category: Universities

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I was in a semi-breaking-down sort of place’: new study sheds light on the emotional toll for emergency volunteers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Roche, PhD Candidate, Centre for Ergonomics and Human Factors, La Trobe University

    Sergey Dolgikh/Getty Images

    In Australia, there are around 235,000 emergency service volunteers who help communities respond and recover after natural disasters and other traumatic events.

    These include volunteers with metropolitan and rural fire services and other rescue organisations.

    As natural disasters grow more frequent and severe with climate change we rely on these volunteers now more than ever. Yet volunteer numbers are shrinking.

    Our new research reveals an important but often hidden toll from natural disasters – the mental health of emergency service volunteers, who risk physical and emotional burnout.

    In our study, we interviewed 32 Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) and Country Fire Authority (CFA) volunteers. They told us they’re often not getting adequate support.

    Exposure to death

    Death is something commonly hidden behind clinical curtains. But for emergency service volunteers, exposure to dying and death is just part of the job. Death on jobs arrives unpredictably – on roads, in burned homes, after storms, floods and suicides.

    Given their work often takes place in the local community, victims are frequently known to the volunteer, which can further complicate grief. As one participant told us:

    You’re bound to come across someone you know, or someone you love at some point […] in a bad situation.

    Another recounted a colleague’s experience:

    It wasn’t until the next day that she found out that she actually knew the deceased person, but didn’t recognise them.

    Volunteers described often being first on scene to assist but not fully prepared for what they find. They recounted experiences including retrieving children who had drowned, watching people dying on the roadside, and finding burnt and maimed human remains.

    These encounters provoke intense emotional responses, from shock and sadness to feeling powerless and vulnerable. For many, feelings of helplessness and grief reverberate into everyday life. As one volunteer told us:

    I was in a semi-breaking-down sort of place […] having flashbacks […] struggling to hold emotions and do my day job.

    A lack of formal support

    We identified over-reliance on informal team support and individual resilience to cope with difficult emotions.

    Structured debriefs depended on leadership and team dynamics. Leaders with “tough it out” mindsets unintentionally perpetuated stigma around seeking help. One participant explained:

    People generally will just sit there and not talk about how they feel […] They’re feeling ashamed or embarrassed.

    The mindset of some teams seems to be that those who can’t manage the demands of the job should leave. One volunteer said:

    It’s mostly very hard and tough. But if you’re going to survive in the game, you gotta be hard.

    Support programs exist, but often focus on major disasters rather than the more everyday jobs. Referral depends on leaders flagging those seen as at-risk or individual volunteers asking for support. One participant explained:

    We do a debrief with peer support, but some people put on a brave face […] There needs to be more follow up.

    What’s more, support is sometimes difficult to access. One participant, a team leader, explained what happened when a volunteer in their team wasn’t coping:

    I called the mechanisms that [we] were told that we need to access. I’ve got somebody here that’s suicidal, nobody escalated it. I still hadn’t heard back six hours later.

    Importantly, our findings also highlighted that a one-size-fits-all approach doesn’t work. For some, peer support is a lifeline for processing experiences and building resilience, but not for others.

    Five women killed. And the peer support was all over us. You know, we got to the stage where it was ridiculous. We’ve had enough, we don’t want this. It re-traumatises people who want to move on.

    Support for emergency service volunteers isn’t one-size-fits-all.
    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    Protecting those who protect us

    Talking to emergency service volunteers from only two organisations in one jurisdiction may limit the extent to which we can generalise our findings to other regions, countries or cultures.

    However, Victoria does have the second largest number of emergency service volunteers in Australia (behind New South Wales).

    Emergency service volunteers are extremely proud and passionate about serving their community and show up with care, calm and strength. But our findings show this comes at a personal cost, especially without the right supports.

    Volunteer exposure to death and dying must be recognised as a serious occupational health and safety issue, not just an emotional side effect of the job. We need proactive, not reactive reform if we want to recruit, retain and protect the people we count on in a crisis.

    Legislators and organisations should work collaboratively with emergency service volunteers to develop and implement responsive and consistent support services, culture and leadership.

    Without targeted, systemic and consistent support, we risk the future of our community-based emergency response. It’s time to protect those who protect us.


    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14 or Beyond Blue on 1300 22 4636.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘I was in a semi-breaking-down sort of place’: new study sheds light on the emotional toll for emergency volunteers – https://theconversation.com/i-was-in-a-semi-breaking-down-sort-of-place-new-study-sheds-light-on-the-emotional-toll-for-emergency-volunteers-259145

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Britain’s support for AUKUS is unwavering – but its capacity to deliver is another matter

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Howe, PhD candidate in International Relations, Monash University

    A recently announced Pentagon review of the AUKUS pact has sparked a renewed bout of debate in Australia. Led by the “AUKUS-agnostic” US Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, the review raises serious questions over whether Australia will receive its US-made Virginia-class submarines on schedule from 2032.

    AUKUS supporters suggest the review is not overly concerning – they point out governments typically review major programs after taking office. As they note, the UK Labour government did the same when it commissioned Sir Stephen Lovegrove to review AUKUS in 2024. Moreover, the House of Commons Defence Select Committee is currently reviewing AUKUS.

    Crucially, however, not all reviews are created equal. Given the US assessment is, according to US officials, being conducted to ensure alignment with the imperatives of “America first”, there is a risk the US will not supply Australia with the Virgina-class submarines it feels it requires to deter China. The UK reviews, on the other hand, did not and do not carry such risks.

    The findings of the Lovegrove review remain confidential, but have been shared with Canberra and were incorporated into the UK government’s recent Strategic Defence Review (SDR). The Defence Select Committee is yet to report, but being public, its findings are likely to generate further debate in Australia.

    Why are the UK reviews different?

    The Defence Select Committee review, launched independently of the government, is an accountability mechanism that scrutinises progress but lacks the power to set policy.

    Meanwhile, the Lovegrove review was never intended to question AUKUS, as its terms of reference made clear. Instead, its focus was more on what progress has been made so far and any barriers that might inhibit future success.

    There was never any real chance the Lovegrove review would end or amend the UK’s participation in AUKUS, because it has widespread support across mainstream British politics. In foreign and security policy terms, cross-party consensus is the norm in the UK.

    However, in the case of AUKUS, two specific factors stand out.

    First, AUKUS provides a welcome means to share the burden on a project the UK was already pursuing. Even before AUKUS was announced, the UK had initiated plans for its next generation of nuclear-powered attack submarines, awarding initial design contracts to BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce worth £85 million (A$170 million).

    Considering this, AUKUS – and specifically Australia’s £2.4 billion (A$4.6 billion) investment into Rolls-Royce’s reactor production line – was a welcome boon for the cash-strapped British government.

    Second, AUKUS has been a crucial component of the UK’s post-Brexit re-emergence. Coming after a period in which Brexit negotiations consumed the British government, it provided important substance to “Global Britain” and its Indo-Pacific tilt.

    AUKUS’s cross-party appeal might initially seem strange, given its close association with Boris Johnson’s Brexiteer government. After all, with its “Britain Reconnected” plan, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government has been keen to demonstrate how it differs from its Conservative predecessors. This most recent example comes with the SDR’s NATO-first approach, which some interpreted as a sharp break.

    However, this is a difference in style rather than substance. Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government had announced Britain had delivered the tilt and would focus on consolidating its position.

    In other words, it was making no new commitments. The SDR does not amend this position. It makes clear that “NATO first does not mean NATO only”. This means continuing support for agreements such as AUKUS, which, according to the review, are crucial to shaping the global security environment.

    Whether Britain has the capability to shape the global security environment is a question the SDR addresses, if implicitly, by acknowledging the “hollowing out” of the UK’s armed forces. Reconstituting Britain’s armed forces is consequently a key focus of Starmer’s government, which sees rearmament as a route to reindustrialisation.

    Militarisation as central to ‘rebirth’

    In this rebirth, the government is focusing heavily on the arms industry as a means to bring well-paid, high-skilled jobs to post-industrial parts of the country. There is debate about whether this is the best way to create jobs and growth, but the Starmer government has gone all-in on the strategy.

    Indeed, one of the most notable outcomes of the SDR is that the UK plans to invest substantial sums in its fleet of attack submarines, as it plans to go from seven Astute-class boats to 12 AUKUS-class ones.

    This ambition may provide some comfort to Australian observers as it indicates the scale of the UK’s commitment to AUKUS. Still, achieving the goal will require a significant increase in industrial capacity, as Britain will need to produce a new submarine every 18 months. The record of the UK government on major capital projects suggests this is a heroic ambition.

    For example, the last three Astute-class boats to be commissioned took between 130 and 132 months to build. The sixth and seventh boats of the nearly 25-year-old program are yet to enter service. Moreover, even the active Astute boats are beset by problems; in the first half of 2024, none of the five in-service boats completed an operational deployment due to maintenance issues.

    So, while in the context of the US review, Britain’s commitment is likely welcomed, any comfort must be tempered by the expectation that problems will also likely emanate from Britain.

    Tom Howe is a Young Professionals Member of the AIIA.

    – ref. Britain’s support for AUKUS is unwavering – but its capacity to deliver is another matter – https://theconversation.com/britains-support-for-aukus-is-unwavering-but-its-capacity-to-deliver-is-another-matter-259266

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Important skills and career choice: how Moscow NGOs help teenagers find themselves

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    Join an IT team, learn to draw in a graphics editor, adapt to a new place and make friends, and also try volunteering – the capital’s non-profit organizations (NPOs) help young city residents decide on their future profession and find their place in life. Such projects regularly receive support from the capital at annual Moscow Mayor’s Grant Competitions for socially oriented non-profit organizations. Applications are now being accepted and will continue until July 3.

    The authors of children’s and youth non-profit projects told mos.ru what distinguishes modern teenagers, how they are helped to decide on a profession and acquire in-demand skills.

    Computer technology and volunteering

    The Baytik Foundation for New Technologies in Education was created in Troitsk more than 30 years ago, and all these years it has been introducing children and adults to IT. For four years in a row, the organization has won grants from the Mayor of Moscow to implement its projects for young Muscovites. Thus, in 2025, the city supported the Youth IT Squad initiative, designed for schoolchildren aged 12–15.

    Today, 37 children participate in the IT squad. We posted information about the recruitment on the foundation’s pages in social networks, and anyone who wanted to could sign up for training. The children come to classes once a week. The program includes theory, practice, and the development of soft skills – this is the ability to work in a team, communication skills, time management. I would like to note that modern teenagers are very kind. They want to help, be useful and needed. It is important for them not only to learn to draw in a graphic editor or model, but also to share new knowledge Daria Kalabukhova, executive director of the Baytik Foundation for New Technologies in Education, head of the Youth IT Squad project

    After studying graphic editors, the teenagers created postcard layouts, printed them on printing equipment and donated the print run to the Troitsk veterans council. After mastering the basics of video editing, the children made videos for the 80th anniversary of the Victory, in which they used archival photos and footage. They were then broadcast at holiday concerts. In the summer, the children will study 3D modeling, develop devices to improve the comfort of those who move in a wheelchair, such as cup holders and phone stands. The products will be printed on 3D printers and sent to hospitals where special military operation soldiers are being treated.

    The “Youth IT Squad” also volunteers. As part of the excursion program, the children have already visited the Patriot Park and the Victory Park on Poklonnaya Hill.

    Contribution to the present and the future: how NGO programs help childrenSports and patriotic tent camps opened for the first time for the capital’s schoolchildrenFive new NGOs have joined the charity service on mos.ru since the beginning of 2025

    From preparing for exams to finding friends

    Special attention is required for teenagers whose families have moved from new regions of Russia. They need to adapt and find friends, catch up on schoolwork and prepare for exams, and think about their future profession. Since 2022, the Refugees Moscow and Moscow Region aid headquarters has been providing such families with the necessary material, psychological, and legal support. And in 2024, the To the Stars! project was launched, which helps teenagers aged 14–18 integrate into a new environment.

    We decided to make the project integrative and educational. Visiting museums and theaters, getting to know cultural and historical values, communicating with people of different professions, volunteering – all this can enrich the children. Our wards visited the exhibition-forum “Russia”, VDNKh sites, the festival “Sofia-Rus. Dialogue of Cultures”, the exhibition “Birth of Scale”, attended a course in public speaking at Arina Sharapova’s school, in the building of the State Duma, the Russian National Research Medical University named after N.I. Pirogov Maria Makeeva Head of the project “To the Stars!” in 2024-2025

    There are currently over 50 refugee teenagers in the group, who regularly (two to four times a month) attend various events. Each of them can choose the areas they need — online classes with tutors to prepare for exams, volunteering, excursions to exhibitions, factories, and universities. In addition, the children have face-to-face meetings twice a month on weekends. There, they can learn about methods of psychological relief and self-help, discuss important issues of growing up, communicate with peers, and meet professionals from various fields.

    How Moscow coworking centers help NGOs in holding charity eventsHow Moscow Colleges Train In-Demand Welding SpecialistsSergei Sobyanin: More than 30 thousand NGOs are registered in Moscow

    Close the gaps in school knowledge

    Another significant project, “From motivation to employment,” is being implemented by the charitable foundation “Simple Things”He helps the children of the Family Education Assistance Center. “Kakhovsky daisies» from 14 to 18 years old who have difficulties with studying school subjects. It is based on the foundation’s long-term work to support children without parental care. Last year, the initiative received a grant from the Mayor of Moscow.

    Together with the center’s specialists, we help teenagers decide on their future profession in accordance with their interests and capabilities. To enter college in the chosen field, you need to get a certificate with good grades, because the results of the competition are summed up based on the average score. To do this, you need to pass the OGE, and our task is to help the child prepare for the exams. Classes with tutors are held in conjunction with trainings conducted by psychologists and career guidance specialists. It should be noted that many teenagers are interested in this, they receive tangible benefits. For example, at a meeting with a coach, there were twice as many participants as we expected Zoya Glukhova Director of the charity fund “Simple Things”, head of the project “From motivation to employment”

    From January to May, 30 teenagers took part in the project. Many of them are ninth-grade graduates who have already decided which colleges they will apply to.

    In September, the project will continue its work and another 15 people will be able to attend the meetings. Not only classes and trainings, but also excursions are planned for them – an introduction to different professions, for example, an office manager and a barista. Owners of companies who built their business from scratch and achieved great success will also talk about their personal experience.

    There are spaces for NGOs in every district of Moscow — Sergei Sobyanin“Active Citizens” to Choose Graffiti as a Symbol of Moscow YouthFrom master classes to meetings with employers: capital colleges invite you to open days

    The route to the sport is built

    The project “Sports Navigator” of the scientific and consulting center “Sports Perspective” is designed for older participants, students of colleges and universities. It received grant support last year.

    The project has several objectives: to introduce students of sports colleges and universities to career prospects, to popularize physical education among all young people, and to develop digital tools with which everyone could find a suitable option for events.

    An important part of the project is business games dedicated to sports professions. We invited teams of students and teachers from sports, pedagogical and economic colleges and universities. We offered them to discuss one of the current issues of modern sports and develop a project. For example, at one of the games, the participants thought over the work of a professional phygital club, it was necessary to ensure its payback and high results. In addition, we held meetings with students in universities and colleges, with children in sports schools and discussed with them the possibilities of using digital solutions in sports Dmitry Chernonog, head of the Sports Perspective Center

    Each participant in the games received an invitation to connect to the Sports Navigator chatbot developed within the project. Here, you need to indicate your height, weight, field of study, interests, and training frequency. Based on the answers, the chatbot gives recommendations on the possibility of professional realization in sports and options for comfortable physical activity. In addition, the system can recommend a suitable profession in this field – from a fitness instructor to a sports journalist. The developers plan to set up analysis of the results using neural networks, make recommendations more accurate, and also open access to the chatbot to everyone.

    In April, the center held the festival “Sport and Profession 2.0” at the Russian University of Sports “GCOLIFK”. It was attended by more than 180 students of sports schools, students of physical education colleges and universities, as well as parents and teachers. They got acquainted with innovative sports, including drone racing and sports programming, and discussed what qualities a professional in this field should have and how to start a career in it.

    No One Forgotten: How Moscow Schoolchildren Help Preserve Monuments to Participants of the Great Patriotic WarSharing knowledge and skills: how capital organizations and volunteers help childrenMoscow Mayor Tells How the City Supports Good Deeds of Moscow NGOs

    Quickly find out the main news of the capital inofficial telegram channel the city of Moscow.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please Note; This Information is Raw Content Directly from the Information Source. It is access to What the Source Is Stating and Does Not Reflect

    https: //vv.mos.ru/nevs/ite/155529073/

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: 34 Youth Leaders Champion Diverse Environmental Causes

    Source: Government of Singapore

    Singapore, 20 June 2025 – The National Environment Agency (NEA) celebrated the graduation of the second cohort of the YOUth for Environmental Sustainability (YES) Leaders Programme today. Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, Ms Grace Fu, commended the 34 graduates and urged perseverance and resilience towards Singapore’s green and sustainability agenda.

    Empowering Youths for Sustainability

    2          Introduced in 2023, the YES Leaders Programme is part of NEA’s YOUth for Environmental Sustainability (YES) Movement, a nationwide initiative designed to engage youths, nurture their interest in environmental issues, and deepen their knowledge of sustainability within Singapore’s context. Through the YES Movement, NEA collaborates with partners and stakeholders to create meaningful opportunities for youths to contribute to a Clean & Green Singapore. The programme also supports the Singapore Green Plan 2030’s Sustainable Living pillar by fostering active green citizenry among youths [1].

    3          The YES Leaders Programme empowers passionate youths with the skills and knowledge to lead impactful environmental projects in their communities. Over the past year, the 34 YES Leaders successfully championed 16 projects, addressing diverse sustainability challenges. Their graduation marks not an end but a beginning, as NEA pledges continued support for their future environmental initiatives.

    4          Mr Loo Deliang, Head of the Sustainability Strategy Unit for the National University of Singapore’s University Campus Infrastructure and a YES Advisor, said, “Seeing passionate youths bring their ideas to life, from the drawing board to real-world practice, is deeply satisfying. As educational institutions, we should provide our campuses as real-world canvases for young people to realise their passion and ideas.”

    5          Mr Shane Tan Tsiat Siong, an Institute of Higher Learning (IHL) mentor from the Singapore University of Social Sciences, said, “The YES Leaders Programme offers a purposeful learning ground for young environmental stalwarts to pursue their passions and curiosity as change-makers of today and tomorrow.”

    6          Ms Samantha Thian, Founder of Seastainable and a YES Advisor, added, “As a strong advocate for youth development, it has been deeply meaningful to support the YES Leaders Programme over the past two years. This programme equips young leaders with the tools, networks, mentorship, and courage to think outside the box and take bold action to rethink sustainability in Singapore.”

    Championing Diverse Environmental Causes

    7          The second cohort of YES Leaders, with diverse academic backgrounds and interests, embarked on projects that engaged the community on topics such as public hygiene, energy efficiency, waste reduction, and environmental sustainability.

    • Beyond the Flush! – Led by Chia Howie, Su Ying Da, and Ma Shu Hang William from Singapore Polytechnic, this project focuses on improving public toilet hygiene. Their innovative prototypes, SHIELD (a barrier for urinals) and Bidet+ (an affordable built-in bidet for male and female toilets), aim to reduce spillage and improve cleanliness.
    • Bite the change: The future of food – Led by Nadhira Fateen Safeel from Singapore University of Social Sciences, this project promotes food sustainability within the community through interactive educational events. It features hands-on cooking session that teach participants simple steps on food scrap repurposing and at-home composting via workshop. Supported by a targeted social media campaign, the initiative engaged over 200 students and staff, equipping participants with skills and awareness to foster long-term sustainable food habits aligned with Singapore’s broader food sustainability goals.
    • Green Grow Gang – Launched by Natalee Chan, Cheyenne Lee, Pang Yu Fei, and Zoe Wong from ITE College West, this project transforms discarded fruit scraps, such as watermelon rinds, into biodegradable flower pots. To date, 56 batches of pots have been produced, tested, and refined for durability and plant compatibility.
    • Developing Net Zero Energy Resource Pack for Primary Schools – Led by Goh Tian Ning and Lim Xin Quan from the National University of Singapore’s Students’ Association for Visions of the Earth (NUS SAVE), this project developed a resource pack featuring classroom slides and a self-guided tour of NUS’ School of Design & Environment 4 (SDE4), a net-positive energy building. The pilot programme also empowered over 25 primary school students, inspiring them to adopt energy-saving habits and understand the differences between net-zero and conventional buildings.

    8          Graduates have continued their sustainability journey beyond YES Leaders Programme. For example:

      • Lim Xin Quan from NUS and Nadhira Fateen Safeel from SUSS from Cohort 2 have joined hands to kick start Planet Pages, a social-environmental project that seeks to facilitate book donations in Singapore and channel it to nooks in needy communities at remote areas overseas.
      • Sophia Ding from Cohort 1 has continued to develop Green Doctor Programme. Her team collected a total mass of 109.2kg of medical blisters from 6 health care institutions over a 6-month period. Her team is continuously looking for ways to improve outcomes and is now conducting a Life Cycle Analysis of their approach and developing plans to scale up their operations.

    Welcoming the Next Cohort

    9          The graduation ceremony also marked the start of the third YES Leaders Programme cohort’s journey. NEA welcomed 37 YES leaders-in-training, nominated by their institutions of higher learning and selected through a rigorous process. Starting 25 June 2025, the new cohort will participate in learning opportunities with policy makers and campaign developers from government agencies, and experts from corporate and non-governmental partners, including CapitaLand, MeTech, EnviroGreen, Chye Thiam Maintenance, Razer, Pan Pacific Hotel Group, Sustainable Living Lab, and Our Tampines Hub. The third cohort will be embarking on their own projects to engage the community to develop innovative ideas on sustainable living.

    Launch of YES Festival

    10        NEA, with the support of CapitaLand, also launched the inaugural YES Festival (YES Fest) at Funan from 20–22 June 2025. This mini-carnival, organised with the involvement of YES Leaders and student volunteers, offers everyone an opportunity to learn about sustainability through project showcases and hands-on workshops conducted by YES Leaders. The event begins at 12 noon on Friday, 20 June 2025. More information and registration for complimentary workshops are available at go.gov.sg/yesfestsg2025.

    —————————————–

    [1] For more information on the YES Movement, visit go.gov.sg/yesmovement.

     

    ~~ End ~~

    For more information, please submit your enquiries electronically via the Online Feedback Form or myENV mobile application.

    About the Youth for Environmental Sustainability (YES) Leaders Programme

    Launched in September 2023, the NEA YES Leaders Programme provides a platform for passionate and active youth leaders to learn from local policy makers, regulators, developers of national campaigns and programmes, as well as industry experts. They will develop key knowledge surrounding sustainability issues and approaches in Singapore, and build their skills to develop and run sustainability projects within their Institutes of Higher Learning (IHLs) and communities. In addition, NEA YES Leaders will also receive guidance from YES Advisors, comprising individuals who are accomplished in driving sustainability initiatives in local contexts.

    YES Advisor Loo Deliang is currently the Head of Sustainability Strategy Unit for the National University of Singapore’s University Campus Infrastructure. Responsible for spearheading the implementation of the Campus Sustainability Roadmap 2030 and its sustainability programmes, he oversees campus infrastructure sustainability, sustainability roadmap development and implementation, engineering and technology for decarbonisation, and sustainability reporting and disclosure.

    He was awarded the Public Service Medal in 2019 and NEA’s “Ecofriend Award” in 2022 for his community work to promote environmental stewardship

    YES Advisor Pek Hai Lin is currently senior manager for sustainability at the Singapore Institute of Technology. Since her time with NGO Zero Waste SG in 2017, she has led several projects and initiatives driving the circular economy in Singapore and Southeast Asia. In 2019, she was awarded the NEA EcoFriend for coordinating the Bring Your Own Singapore movement which had since onboarded more than 135 partner brands and 1,000 retail and F&B outlets. Her work at SIT has since broadened to look at Environment, Social and Governance impact, and through her commitment to further sustainable development, she hopes to continue to engage people and organisations to relook and disrupt business as usual.

    YES Advisor Samantha Thian is currently serving as Deputy Head of Operations at the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II Technical Support Unit, hosted at Singapore Management University. Samantha is also the founder of Seastainable, a social enterprise sustainability consultancy that she founded in 2017.

    Recognised by Forbes 30 Under 30 Asia (Social Impact) and the NEA EcoFriend Awards in 2021, Samantha has represented Singapore at the G20 Youth Summit (Y20), as part of Singapore’s COP28 and 29 Youth Delegations, and various regional climate forums.

    YES Advisor Veerappan Swaminathan is the founder and director of Sustainable Living Lab (SL2), a consultancy that helps organisations innovate for environmental, economic, and social sustainability. He is also the CEO and director of edm8ker, which trains teachers to impart “maker education” to youths. Additionally, Veera contributes to various initiatives and platforms that promote sustainability, innovation, and social impact. Repair Kopitiam is one such initiative that he had started, to promote the habit of repairing items and combat today’s ‘buy-and-throw’ culture. He received the NUS Outstanding Young Alumni Award in 2019, 2018 Joseph Jaworski Next Generation Foresight Asia Special Award, the EcoFriend Award 2016, the Young Enterprise For Sustainable Development Award 2015, and the President’s Challenge Youth Social Enterprise Award 2015.

     

    Annex A : YES Leaders Programme Graduates and Projects

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Exclusive: China’s Development Opens Unique ‘Window of Opportunity’ for Central Asia — Kyrgyz Political Scientist

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BISHKEK, June 20 /Xinhua/ — The development of modern China opens a unique “window of opportunity” for Central Asia: from industrialization and market expansion to sustainable development and investment in human capital, Kyrgyz political scientist, professor of international relations at Ala-Too International University Kubanychbek Taabaldiev said in a recent exclusive interview with Xinhua.

    “China, given its sustainable development and the weight it has acquired in global politics and economics, is capable of becoming an example in many areas, such as economic modernization, poverty reduction, technological progress and the development of information technology, and the transition from an economy of raw materials supplies to the production of high-tech products,” he noted.

    One of the most important factors for this, according to the political scientist, is the colossal domestic market of China. The countries of Central Asia can increase their supplies to the Chinese market not only of natural raw materials and energy resources, but also of finished goods, including environmentally friendly agricultural products.

    According to K. Taabaldiev, China demonstrates a very high readiness to develop relations with all Central Asian countries. “China takes into account the strategy of the countries of the region as a whole and demonstrates a persistent desire to combine the Belt and Road Initiative with the interests of the five Central Asian countries,” he said, adding that the country also expressed its support for the national development plans of the region.

    According to the expert, the infrastructure projects being implemented in Central Asia stand out especially brightly – the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which should lead to noticeable changes in the logistical structure of the region’s economy.

    As an example in this area, the political scientist also cited the construction of an alternative North-South highway in Kyrgyzstan. “The highway will not only allow the development of Kyrgyzstan’s internal regions, but will also enable many countries to deliver international transit cargo by the shortest route,” he said.

    As K. Taabaldiev emphasized, given the economic growth in the Central Asian countries, China is interested in implementing joint projects in such areas as the implementation of renewable energy sources, initiated a project to develop the digital Silk Road and at the same time emphasizes its interest in the sustainable development of all of Central Asia.

    Speaking about the Treaty on Eternal Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between China and the Central Asian Countries, signed on Tuesday during the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, the expert believes that the document allows the countries of the region and China to jointly create a well-thought-out basis for coordinated strategic planning of joint development.

    “The Astana summit demonstrated a unified spirit of mutual trust among its participants,” he concluded. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    “Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    “Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University

    Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal.

    The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s expected to start operating in 2026.

    Human rights organisations, international lawyers and some (mostly European) states have long been calling for the establishment of such a tribunal. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, called the establishment of the tribunal:

    an important breakthrough for the international justice community and especially for the millions of Ukrainians who have been harmed by the Russian aggression.

    However, important questions remain about if it could truly hold senior Russian officials accountable.

    So, how will this new special tribunal work, and will it be effective – or necessary?

    How does the special tribunal fill the gaps left by the ICC and ICJ?

    This tribunal is separate to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

    The ICC can prosecute individuals charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Russian war on Ukraine. So far, it has issued arrest warrants against four Russian senior officials, including President Vladimir Putin.

    Because Russia is not a member state to the court, the court can’t exercise legal authority over what’s known in international law as a crime of aggression (when leaders of a state launch or plan a war). For the ICC to be able to exercise this jurisdiction, the aggressor state also must be a member state of the court.

    The ICJ is a different court altogether. It primarily deals with and adjudicates disputes between states, not limited to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. It can’t hold individuals accountable, and can only exercise jurisdiction over a dispute if both states to a dispute agree.

    While the ICC seeks to establish individual criminal responsibility, the ICJ may establish state responsibility for a violation of international law.

    Currently, there are also two cases between Ukraine and Russia before the ICJ.

    Neither deals with the question of the legality of Russia’s use of force in its invasion in February 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia would need to consent to bring this issue before the court.

    So, is a new tribunal necessary?

    Yes, because the crime of aggression currently can’t be addressed by any other international court or tribunal.

    Given the limitations of what the ICJ and ICC can do, a dedicated tribunal seems the obvious solution to hold those responsible for the illegal use of force against Ukraine accountable.

    And it’s not uncommon for specialised tribunals with limited jurisdiction over a specific situation to be created.

    Other historical examples include the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia and the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

    Given the ICC’s lack of jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, the new special tribunal would complement the court’s existing investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Who is running the new tribunal and how will it work?

    The exact content and specifics of this new tribunal will remain unknown until the draft statute of the tribunal is published. That’s a document that outlines details including the tribunal’s jurisdiction, the applicable definition of aggression and how the tribunal will function.

    At this stage, the Council of Europe has confirmed the tribunal will work within its legal framework and principles. It will be funded by an international coalition of supportive states.

    A management committee of members and associate members of the tribunal will be responsible for the election of the tribunal’s judges and prosecutors. The management committee is made up of the Council of Europe’s council of ministers and Ukraine.

    Diplomatic discussions are still ongoing at this point, but the legal process for establishing the special tribunal can begin now.

    Will this special tribunal be more effective?

    Political, legal and practical challenges for the special tribunal remain. It’s unclear if the most senior Russian state officials can and will be able to be brought to trial for the crime of aggression.

    Nothing, so far, suggests the statute of the tribunal will contain an exception to state immunity enjoyed by heads of state, heads of governments and foreign ministers while in power.

    That means these office holders can only be prosecuted if they are no longer in power or the Russian government expressly waives their immunity.

    It’s also unclear whether states will be willing to arrest those sought by the special tribunal.

    The ICC has long faced this challenge trying to get states to act on its arrest warrants.

    Hungary, for instance, did not arrest Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visited in April, despite an ICC arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza.

    For the special tribunal to be effective, according to Oleksandra Matviichuk, it:

    must not become a remote and hollow entity that does not engage with the Ukrainian victims.

    Overall, much remains unclear. Will this new special tribunal be able to hold the likes of Putin accountable for the crime of aggression? Or will it become another empty promise?

    Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective-257823

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: China hopes US will act on Trump’s remarks about welcoming Chinese students to study in America

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    This photo taken on May 24, 2025 shows a view of the Harvard University campus in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the United States. [Photo/Xinhua]

    China opposes politicizing education cooperation, and hopes the United States will act on President Trump’s remarks about welcoming Chinese students to study in America, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Thursday.

    Spokesperson Guo Jiakun made the remarks in response to a related query at a daily news briefing, adding that China is following the developments.

    China-U.S. education cooperation benefits both sides, Guo said.

    “We hope the United States will act on President Trump’s remarks about welcoming Chinese students to study in America and effectively protect the lawful and legitimate rights and interests of Chinese students and scholars in the United States,” he said.

    MIL OSI China News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland

    CUHRIG/Getty

    This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room Watt presumably had to woo hardest: Western Australia’s miners.

    Last year, the WA mining lobby mounted an ultimately successful campaign opposing proposed changes to national environment laws, and the plan to set up an environmental protection authority. State premier Roger Cook also lobbied Prime Minister Anthony Albanese directly.

    Watt has pledged to revive the reform process and on Thursday claimed a compromise could be reached. The existing laws, he said, are “not working for the environment, and they are not working for business”.

    Whether his efforts will be enough to overcome the scepticism of the mining industry remains to be seen. These companies have influence – and they will use it if they see new laws as a threat.

    The mining state

    The mining industry dominates WA economically, politically and socially. WA’s mining sector is substantially larger than the mining interests in any other Australian state. Underground lie huge reserves of iron ore, gas, gold, lithium and many other resources.

    The sector funnelled A$267 billion into the Australian economy in 2023–24 through salaries, royalties and taxes. About $60 billion directly flowed to Western Australians in wages and salaries.

    The leaders of WA mining companies see themselves, by and large, as doing economically vital work.

    I have interviewed many WA mining executives for my doctorate, which is currently underway. One clear common narrative emerged: they saw mining as a national good. They believed their companies brought wealth and prosperity to communities, built infrastructure, and funnelled money into state and federal treasuries.

    The justification is powerful. It underpins the way those in the industry see their work – and how they respond to any threat, perceived or otherwise.

    It also dates back over a century. The link between WA resources and prosperity originates from the 1890s WA gold rush, which transformed the fortunes of the state. This self image has been nurtured through successive resource booms, from gold to iron ore to natural gas and more gold.

    Many company executives see any duplication of environmental approvals as time-consuming, unproductive and economically damaging. A 2023 WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry report suggested “green tape” (approval delays) was threatening 40% of mining proposals in the pipeline.

    Miners and their political backers often frame the industry as environmentally positive, particularly for resources vital to the green energy transition such as lithium, rare earth elements and – more controversially – gas.

    Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King – who is West Australian – regularly draws this link. As she said in 2023:

    let me be clear, the global clean energy transition will need more mining, not less […] the road to net zero runs through the Australian resources sector.

    Mining is vital to Western Australia.
    Inc/Shutterstock

    Wielding influence

    WA miners are represented by well-organised and well-resourced lobbying bodies such as the Chamber of Minerals and Energy WA, the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, and the Minerals Council of Australia.

    These groups maintain relationships with politicians at both state and federal levels, regardless of which party is in power.

    Broadly, their goals are to promote the continued expansion of resource projects (minerals, oil and gas) under conditions most advantageous to industry interests.

    Mining companies use these industry lobby groups to support or critique government policy and push for changes. They exert influence through targeted lobbying, close relationships with elected officials and political candidates, and direct engagement with federal processes.

    What happens when the sector sees a potential threat from policymakers in Canberra? Often, the mining companies unify against it.

    For example, WA miners were prominent in the 2010 campaign against efforts by the Rudd government to introduce a super profits tax on mining.

    Why WA miners oppose nature law reform

    A tax is one thing. But what did the WA miners see as the key problems in the environmental reforms?

    One issue was a perceived contradiction between the federal government’s intention to streamline developmental approvals and introduce a federal Environmental Protection Agency, while failing to deal with existing duplication between state and federal processes.

    The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies lobby group gave another reason in a submission to government: the proposed independence of the EPA would remove the discretionary power of the minister.

    Rather than an independent federal EPA, they pushed for a model similar to the WA version – the advice of which the minister can overrule. The group also warned the laws would impede the global competitiveness of the mining industry and hinder investment.

    The state government echoed these statements, calling the reforms an overreach that would stifle economic development.

    This alignment of government and industry messaging shows how closely their interests are intertwined.

    Premier Roger Cook leaves no ambiguity about this. Ahead of this year’s WA and federal elections, Cook warned the “latte sippers” over east:

    do not for a moment think that we will stand by idly and allow you to damage our economy because, ultimately, it will damage your standard of living.

    Is a deal possible?

    Across Australia, there is broad support for environmental law reform, because the current national laws are seen as not fit for purpose.

    Murray Watt came to the role of environment minister with a reputation as a fixer. The question now is, what will he trade to get the miners on side?

    The industry will be cautious and will insist on much more detail about any changes. It’s possible a deal could be struck. But we can expect to continue to see very strong pushback if Watt tries to expand federal powers into what is seen as state responsibilities.

    The industry will also expect greater federal resourcing for delivery of timely approvals. Nationally important industries don’t like to wait.

    Diane Dowdell is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining (CSRM) within the Sustainable Minerals Institute at the University of Queensland. She was the recipient of an industry scholarship from Newcrest Mining for her PhD research. She works for SLR Consulting Pty Ltd. Diane is a fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM) and the Environment Institute of Australia and New Zealand (EIANZ).

    – ref. West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time? – https://theconversation.com/west-australian-miners-flexed-their-muscle-to-block-a-federal-epa-last-year-will-it-be-different-this-time-257892

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Australia: Simon Birmingham appointed as ABA CEO

    Source: Premier of Victoria

    Former Federal Finance Minister and Senate Leader, The Hon. Simon Birmingham, will join the Australian Banking Association as Chief Executive Officer.

    ABA Chair and National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine today announced Mr Birmingham’s appointment, replacing retiring CEO, The Hon. Anna Bligh AC.

    “We are delighted to have Simon lead our industry and help ensure Australian banks continue making the right decisions for customers and the broader economy,” Mr Irvine said.

    “He is a recognised leader who has had deep involvement in significant and long-lasting policy decisions and actions throughout his career that have helped to shape our country.

    “Simon’s ability to navigate difficult and complex environments, bringing together varied interests and perspectives, makes him ideal for this role. He will be a sensible, consistent and respected voice on behalf of the industry.”

    Mr Birmingham served in the Australian Parliament as a Liberal Senator for South Australia from 2007 to 2025. His roles included Minister for Finance, Leader of the Government in the Senate, Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment, Minister for Education and Training and Manager of Government Business in the Senate. He was Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2022 until his retirement from the Senate.

    Prior to politics, he worked with the Winemakers’ Federation of Australia and the Australian Hotels Association. He is currently ANZ’s Head of Asia Pacific Engagement and Chairman, South Australia. He holds a Master of Business Administration from the University of Adelaide.

    “I thank the ABA board for their vote of confidence in my ability to lead this industry. As the ABA CEO I will always put trust in Australia’s banking system first, pursue a competitive regulatory environment, and work to ensure innovation in banking strengthens Australia’s financial interests. I also want to acknowledge ANZ for their support and encouragement through this process,” Mr Birmingham said.

    “Banks are central to our economy, essential to businesses of all sizes and entrusted by Australians with their personal financial wellbeing. From trade and capital flows from large and international banks, to the choice offered by smaller banks, regional banks and customer-owned organisations, a strong, healthy, customer-focused financial services sector is vital for all Australians.”

    Mr Birmingham will start on 18 August. Ms Bligh, who announced in February that she would retire after eight years as ABA CEO, will finish on 22 August.

    “Anna has had a remarkable and lasting impact on this industry and how we look after our customers,” Mr Irvine said. We are enormously grateful for her time advocating for customers, particularly the disadvantaged, across financial services.”

    For more information, visit the ABA’s website here.

    Contact:  Mark Alexander, National Australia Bank (as ABA Chair bank), 0412 171 447

    Topics

    SEE ALL TOPICS

    Media Enquiries

    For all media enquiries, please contact the NAB Media Line on 03 7035 5015

    MIL OSI News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran

    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

    The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic.

    Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling mid-air refuelling, bombs and an array of intelligence.

    If successful they will destroy or, more likely, destabilise the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz and possibly the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, causing them to vibrate and spin uncontrollably, generating centrifugal forces that could rupture containment systems.

    Spinning at more than 50,000 rpm it wouldn’t take much of a shockwave from a blast or some other act of sabotage to do this.

    There may be about half a tonne of enriched uranium and several tonnes of lower-grade material underground.

    If a cascade of bunker-busting bombs like the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators got through, the heat generated would be in the hundreds, even thousands, of degrees Celsius. This would destroy the centrifuges, converting the uranium hexafluoride gas into a toxic aerosol, leading to serious radiological contamination over a wide area.

    The head of the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, warned repeatedly of the dangers over the past few days. How many people would be killed, contaminated or forced to evacuate should not have to be calculated — it should be avoided at all cost.

    Divided opinions
    Some people think this attack is a very good idea; some think this is an act of madness by two rogue states.

    On June 18, Israeli media were reporting that the US had rushed an aerial armada loaded with bunker busters to Israel while the US continued its sham denials of involvement in the war.

    Analysts Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares warned this week of “Israel bringing the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon in pursuit of its illegal and extremist aims”.  They point out that for some decades now Netanyahu has warned that Iran is weeks or even days away from having the bomb, begging successive presidents for permission to wage Judeo-Christian jihad.

    In Donald Trump — the MAGA Peace Candidate — he finally got his green light.

    The centrifugal forces destabilising the Iranian state
    The other — and possibly more significant — centrifugal force that has been unleashed is a hybrid attack on the Iranian state itself.  The Americans, Israelis and their European allies hope to trigger regime change.

    There are many Iranians inside and outside the country who would welcome such a development.  Other Iranians suggest they should be careful of what they wish for, pointing to the human misery that follows, as night follows day, wherever post 9/11 America’s project to bring “democracy, goodness and niceness” leads.  If you can’t quickly think of half a dozen examples, this must be your first visit to Planet Earth.

    Iranian news presenter Sahar Emami during the Israeli attack on state television which killed three media workers . . . Killing journalists is both an Israeli speciality and a war crime. Image: AJ screenshot APR

    Is regime change in Iran possible?
    So, are the Americans and Israelis on to something or not? This week prominent anti-regime writer Sohrab Ahmari added a caveat to his long-standing call for an end to the regime.  Ahmari, an Iranian, who is the US editor of the geopolitical analysis platform UnHerd said:  “The potential nightmare scenarios are as numerous as they are appalling: regime collapse that leads not to the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty and the ascent to the Peacock Throne of its chubby dauphin, Reza, but warlordism and ethno-sectarian warfare that drives millions of refugees into Europe.

    “Or a Chinese intervention in favour of a crucial energy partner and anchor of the new Eurasian bloc led by Beijing . . .  A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Persian Gulf monarchies.”

    Despite these risks, there are indeed Iranians who are cheering for Uncle Bibi (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu).  Some have little sympathy for the Palestinians because their government poured millions into supporting Hamas and Hezbollah — money that could have eased hardship inside Iran, caused, it must be added, by both the US-imposed sanctions and the regime’s own mismanagement, some say corruption.

    As I pointed out in an article The West’s War on Iran shortly after the Israelis launched the war: the regime appears to have a core support base of around 20 percent.  This was true in 2018 when I last visited Iran and was still the case in the most recent polling I could find.

    I quoted an Iranian contact who shortly after the attack told me they had scanned reactions inside Iran and found people were upset, angry and overwhelmingly supportive of the government at this critical moment.  Like many, I suggested Iranians would — as typically happens when countries are attacked — rally round the flag.  Shortly after the article was published this statement was challenged by other Iranians who dispute that there will be any “rallying to the flag” — as that is the flag of the Islamic Republic and a great many Iranians are sick to the back teeth of it.

    Some others demur:

    “The killing of at least 224 Iranians has once again significantly damaged Israel’s claim that it avoids targeting civilians,” Dr Shirin Saeidi, author of Women and the Islamic Republic, an associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, told The New Arab on June 16.  “Israel’s illegal attack on the Iranian people will definitely not result in a popular uprising against the Iranian state. On the contrary, Iranians are coming together behind the Islamic Republic.”

    To be honest, I can’t discern who is correct. In the last few of days I have also had contact with people inside Iran (all these contacts must, for obvious reasons, be anonymous).  One of them welcomed the attack on the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps).  I also got this message relayed to me from someone else in Iran as a response to my article:

    “Some Iranians are pro-regime and have condemned Israeli attacks and want the government to respond strongly. Some Iranians are pro-Israel and happy that Israel has attacked and killed some of their murderers and want regime change, [but the] majority of Iranians dislike both sides.

    They dislike the regime in Iran, and they are patriotic so they don’t want a foreign country like Israel invading them and killing people. They feel hopeless and defenceless as they know both sides have failed or will fail them.”

    Calculating the incalculable: regime survival or collapse?
    Only a little over half of Iran is Persian. Minorities include Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis, Turkmen, Armenians and one of the region’s few post-Nakba Jewish congregations outside of Israel today.

    Mossad, MI6 and various branches of the US state have poured billions into opposition groups, including various monarchist factions, but from a distance they appear fragmented. The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) armed opposition group has been an irritant but so far not a major disruptor.

    The most effective terrorist attacks inside Iran have been launched by Israel, the US and the British — including the assassination of a string of Iranian peace negotiators, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, nuclear scientists and their families, and various regime figures.

    How numerous the active strands of anti-regime elements are is hard to estimate. Equally hard to calculate is how many will move into open confrontation with the regime. Conversely, how unified, durable — or brittle — is the regime? How cohesive is the leadership of the IRGC and the Basij militias? Will they work effectively together in the trying times ahead? In particular, how successful has the CIA, MI6 and Mossad been at penetrating their structures and buying generals?

    Both Iran’s nuclear programme and its government — in fact, the whole edifice and foundation of the Islamic Republic — is at the beginning of the greatest stress test of its existence.  If the centrifugal forces prove too great, I can’t help but think of the words of William Butler Yeats:

    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

    The best lack all conviction, while the worst   

    Are full of passionate intensity.

    Peace and prosperity to all the people of Iran.  And let’s never forget the people of Palestine as they endure genocide.

    Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

    MAYA LAB/Shutterstock

    Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that has nearly finished testing them.

    The findings, released today, may give the government greater confidence to forge ahead with the ban, despite a suite of expert criticism. They might also alleviate some of the concerns of the Australian population about privacy and security implications of the ban, which is due to begin in December.

    For example, a report based on a survey of nearly 4,000 people and released by the government earlier this week found nine out of ten people support the idea of a ban. But it also found a large number of people were “very concerned” about how the ban would be implemented. Nearly 80% of respondents had privacy and security concerns, while roughly half had concerns about age assurance accuracy and government oversight.

    The trial’s preliminary findings paint a rosy picture of the potential for available technologies to check people’s ages. However, they contain very little detail about specific technologies, and appear to be at odds with what we know about age-assurance technology from other sources.

    From facial recognition to hand movement recognition

    The social media ban for under 16s was legislated in December 2024. A last-minute amendment to the law requires technology companies to provide “alternative age assurance methods” for account holders to confirm their age, rather than relying only on government-issued ID.

    The Australian government commissioned an independent trial to evaluate the “effectiveness, maturity, and readiness for use” of these alternative methods.

    The trial is being led by the Age Check Certification Scheme – a company based in the United Kingdom that specialises in testing and certifying identity verification systems. It includes 53 vendors that offer a range of age assurance technologies to guess people’s ages, using techniques such as facial recognition and hand-movement recognition.

    According to the preliminary findings of the trial, “age assurance can be done in Australia”.

    The trial’s project director, Tony Allen, said “there are no significant technological barriers” to assuring people’s ages online. He added the solutions are “technically feasible, can be integrated flexibly into existing services and can support the safety and rights of children online”.

    However, these claims are hard to square with other evidence.

    High error rates

    Yesterday the ABC reported the trial found face-scanning technologies “repeatedly misidentified” children as young as 15 as being in their 20s and 30s. These tools could only guess children’s ages “within an 18-month range in 85 percent of cases”. This means a 14-year-old child might gain access to a social media account, while a 17-year-old might be blocked.

    This is in line with results of global trials of face-scanning technologies conducted for more than a decade.

    An ongoing series of studies of age estimation technology by the United States’ National Institute of Standards and Technology shows the algorithms “fail significantly when attempting to differentiate minors” of various ages.

    The tests also show that error rates are higher for young women compared to young men. Error rates are also higher for people with darker skin tones.

    These studies show that even the best age-estimation software currently available – Yoti – has an average error of 1.0 years. Other software options mistake someone’s age by 3.1 years on average.

    This means, at best, a 16-year-old might be estimated to be 15 or 17 years old; at worst, they could be seen to be 13 or 19 years of age. These error rates mean a significant number of children under 16 could access social media accounts despite a ban being in place, while some over 16 could be blocked.

    Yoti also explains businesses needing to check exact ages (such as 18) can set higher age thresholds (such as 25), so fewer people under 18 get through the age check.

    This approach would be similar to that taken in Australia’s retail liquor sector, where sales staff verify ID for anyone who appears to be under the age of 25. However, many young people lack the government-issued ID required for an additional age check.

    It’s also worth remembering that in August 2023, the Australian government acknowledged that the age assurance technology market was “immature” and could not yet meet key requirements, such as working reliably without circumvention and balancing privacy and security.

    Outstanding questions

    We don’t yet know exactly what methods platforms will use to verify account holders’ ages. While face-scanning technologies are often discussed, they could use other methods to confirm age. The government trial also tested voice and hand movements to guess young people’s ages. But those methods also have accuracy issues.

    And it’s not yet clear what recourse people will have if their age is misidentified. Will parents be able to complain if children under 16 gain access to accounts, despite restrictions? Will older Australians who are incorrectly blocked be able to appeal? And if so, to whom?

    There are other outstanding questions. What’s stopping someone who’s under 16 from getting someone who is over 16 to set up an account on their behalf? To mitigate this risk, the government might require all social media users to verify their age at regular intervals.

    It’s also unclear what level of age estimation error the government may be willing to accept in implementing a social media ban. The legislation says technology companies must demonstrate they have taken “reasonable steps” to prevent under 16s from holding social media accounts. What is considered “reasonable” is yet to be clearly defined.

    Australians will have to wait until later this year for the full results of the government’s trial to be released, and to know how technology companies will respond. With less than six months until the ban comes into effect, social media users still don’t have all the answers they need.

    Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and the international Association for Information Science and Technology.

    – ref. Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence – https://theconversation.com/technology-to-enforce-teen-social-media-ban-is-effective-trial-says-but-this-is-at-odds-with-other-evidence-259373

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Israel — and potentially the U.S. — is sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    As the war between Israel and Iran escalates, Israel is increasing its calls on the United States to become involved in the conflict.

    Former Israeli officials are appearing on U.S. news outlets, exhorting the American public to support Israel’s actions.

    President Donald Trump has signalled a willingness for the U.S. to become involved in the conflict. He’s gone so far, in fact, to suggest in social media posts that he could kill Iran’s supreme leader if he wanted to.

    Segment on Trump’s threats against Iran’s leader. (BBC News)

    The American military could certainly make an impact in any air campaign against Iran. The problem from a military standpoint, however, is that the U.S., based on its forces’ deployment, will almost certainly seek to keep its involvement limited to its air force to avoid another Iraq-like quagmire.

    While doing so could almost certainly disrupt Iran’s nuclear program, it will likely fall short of Israel’s goal of regime change.

    In fact, it could reinforce the Iranian government and draw the U.S. into a costly ground war.




    Read more:
    Why is there so much concern over Iran’s nuclear program? And where could it go from here?


    Israel’s need for American support

    The initial stated reason for Israel’s bombing campaign — Iran’s nuclear capabilities — appears specious at best.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued several times in the past, without evidence, that Iran is close to achieving a nuclear weapon. U.S. intelligence, however, have assessed that Iran is three years away from deploying a nuclear weapon.

    Regardless of the veracity of the claims, Israel initiated the offensive and now requires American support.

    Israel’s need for U.S. assistance rests on two circumstances:

    1. While Israel succeeded in eliminating key figures from the Iranian military in its initial strikes, Iran’s response appears to have exceeded Israel’s expectations with their Arrow missile interceptors nearing depletion.

    2. Israel’s air strikes can only achieve so much in disrupting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Most analysts note that Israel’s bombings are only likely to delay the Iranian nuclear program by a few months. This is due to the fact that Israeli missiles are incapable of penetrating the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which estimates place close to 300 feet underground.

    The United States, however, possesses munitions that could damage, or even destroy, the Fordow facility. Most notably, the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (more commonly known as a bunker buster) has a penetration capability of 200 feet.

    Multiple strikes by said munition would render Fordow inoperable, if not outright destroyed.

    Romanticizing air power

    The efficacy of air power has been vastly overrated in the popular media and various air forces of the world. Air power is great at disrupting an opponent, but has significant limitations in influencing the outcome of a war.

    Specifically, air power is likely to prove an inadequate tool for one of the supposed Israeli and American objectives in the war: regime change. For air power to be effective at bringing about regime change, it needs to demoralize the Iranian people to the point that they’re willing to oppose their own government.

    Early air enthusiasts believed that a population’s demoralization would be an inevitable consequence of aerial bombardment. Italian general Giulio Douhet, a prominent air power theorist, argued that air power was so mighty that it could destroy cities and demoralize an opponent into surrendering.

    Douhet was correct on the first point. He was wrong on the second.

    Recent history provides evidence. While considerable ink has been spilled to demonstrate the efficacy of air power during the Second World War, close examination of the facts demonstrate that it had a minimal impact. In fact, Allied bombing of German cities in several instances created the opposite effect.

    More recent bombing campaigns replicated this failure. The U.S. bombing of North Vietnam during the Vietnam War did not significantly damage North Vietnamese morale or war effort. NATO’s bombing of Serbia in 1999, likewise, rallied support for the unpopular Slobodan Milosevic due to its perceived injustice — and continues to evoke strong emotions to this day.

    Iran’s political regime may be unpopular with many Iranians, but Israeli and potentially American bombing may shore up support for the Iranian government.

    Nationalism is a potent force, particularly when people are under attack. Israel’s bombing of Iran will rally segments of the population to the government that would otherwise oppose it.

    Few positive options

    The limitations of air power to fuel significant political change in Iran should give Trump pause about intervening in the conflict.

    Some American support, such as providing weapons, is a given due to the close relationship between the U.S. and Israel. But any realization of American and Israeli aspirations of a non-nuclear Iran and a new government will likely require ground forces.

    Recent American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq show such a ground forces operation won’t lead to the swift victory that Trump desires, but could potentially stretch on for decades.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Israel — and potentially the U.S. — is sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran – https://theconversation.com/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-is-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran-259348

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: 6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University

    Wander Women/ Getty Images

    Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools.

    About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting consequences. Research suggests students who are bullied are at an increased risk of mental health problems and self-harm.

    On Friday, submissions close for the federal government’s rapid review into school bullying. Here, we suggest six key areas on which governments, schools and education authorities need to focus to re-imagine Australia’s approach to tackling bullying.




    Read more:
    With a government review underway, we have to ask why children bully other kids


    1. A national approach to bullying

    At the moment, there is no clear, consistent definition of bullying in Australian schools. Nor are there consistent policies.

    This naturally leads to confusion about current best practice to both prevent bullying and support students who have been bullied.

    For example, there are several definitions of cyberbullying between the different states and territories.

    2. Consistent data to track bullying

    Australia also has no nationally consistent approach to track or measure bullying and cyberbullying.

    This means it is impossible to say whether bullying is getting worse or better – or if certain parts of the country are more successfully addressing it.

    So we need metrics to better track, analyse, report and respond to bullying incidents across schools, regions, states and territories.

    For years, researchers have noted schools themselves also need accurate data to analyse, monitor and evaluate the degree to which an intervention is effective.

    3. A whole-school approach

    A national strategy should also prioritise whole-school approaches to bullying prevention – this is what research shows to be most effective.

    A whole-school approach sees anti-bullying efforts as the responsibility of everyone connected to a school. School leaders, teachers, support staff, students, families and the wider community are all expected to promote safety and inclusion.

    Addressing bullying should see strategies implemented across multiple locations, including the classroom, wider school and home environments.

    This goes beyond simply dealing with individual bullying incidents as they arise.

    Research also suggests schools should focus on proactive, non-punitive strategies and a positive school culture. This includes clear procedures to report bullying, effective education programs, and establishing consistent classroom and school rules.

    If bullying occurs, schools can respond with a restorative approach, which focuses on repairing harm done to relationships.

    Studies suggest whole-school approaches such as these can reduce bullying behaviours by 20-23% and victimisation by 17-20%.

    4. Teach social and emotional skills

    As part of the whole-school approach, we also need to make sure schools are teaching social and emotional skills. This includes how to identify and manage emotions as well as communicating and cooperating with others.

    While it is part of the Australian Curriculum, research shows social and emotional skills are not always taught using evidence-based, formal approaches.

    A large body of research demonstrates that schools which teach social and emotional learning across all aspects of school engagement, report higher academic achievement, lower rates of bullying, improved student wellbeing, and stronger connections between students and adults.

    In part, this is because these approaches empower students to take ownership of their behaviour.




    Read more:
    Schools today also teach social and emotional skills. Why is this important? And what’s involved?


    5. Training for teachers

    Teachers play a pivotal role in making sure all students feel safe and supported at school, helping children and young people to understand and manage their emotions.

    A 2014 study found teachers who had participated in anti-bullying training were able to provide this support more effectively.

    Teachers specifically need training that helps them provide safe, inclusive spaces for students from marginalised groups, including students with disability and young people who face homophobic or transphobic bullying.

    School staff should receive consistent, culturally responsive training, so they are equipped with the most current and effective ways to support all students.

    6. Give students an active role

    We should also look at ways to give students a greater role in shaping anti-bullying policies.

    Research shows when students are included in decisions that affect them, it increases their engagement with learning and motivation at school.

    Along with helping to make policies, students can also be involved in peer-mentoring programs and leading campaigns to raise awareness about respectful relationships. This can create a sense of shared ownership for anti-bullying interventions.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying – https://theconversation.com/6-things-australia-must-do-if-its-serious-about-tackling-school-bullying-258924

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University

    Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal.

    The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s expected to start operating in 2026.

    Human rights organisations, international lawyers and some (mostly European) states have long been calling for the establishment of such a tribunal. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, called the establishment of the tribunal:

    an important breakthrough for the international justice community and especially for the millions of Ukrainians who have been harmed by the Russian aggression.

    However, important questions remain about if it could truly hold senior Russian officials accountable.

    So, how will this new special tribunal work, and will it be effective – or necessary?

    How does the special tribunal fill the gaps left by the ICC and ICJ?

    This tribunal is separate to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

    The ICC can prosecute individuals charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Russian war on Ukraine. So far, it has issued arrest warrants against four Russian senior officials, including President Vladimir Putin.

    Because Russia is not a member state to the court, the court can’t exercise legal authority over what’s known in international law as a crime of aggression (when leaders of a state launch or plan a war). For the ICC to be able to exercise this jurisdiction, the aggressor state also must be a member state of the court.

    The ICJ is a different court altogether. It primarily deals with and adjudicates disputes between states, not limited to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. It can’t hold individuals accountable, and can only exercise jurisdiction over a dispute if both states to a dispute agree.

    While the ICC seeks to establish individual criminal responsibility, the ICJ may establish state responsibility for a violation of international law.

    Currently, there are also two cases between Ukraine and Russia before the ICJ.

    Neither deals with the question of the legality of Russia’s use of force in its invasion in February 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia would need to consent to bring this issue before the court.

    So, is a new tribunal necessary?

    Yes, because the crime of aggression currently can’t be addressed by any other international court or tribunal.

    Given the limitations of what the ICJ and ICC can do, a dedicated tribunal seems the obvious solution to hold those responsible for the illegal use of force against Ukraine accountable.

    And it’s not uncommon for specialised tribunals with limited jurisdiction over a specific situation to be created.

    Other historical examples include the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia and the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

    Given the ICC’s lack of jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, the new special tribunal would complement the court’s existing investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Who is running the new tribunal and how will it work?

    The exact content and specifics of this new tribunal will remain unknown until the draft statute of the tribunal is published. That’s a document that outlines details including the tribunal’s jurisdiction, the applicable definition of aggression and how the tribunal will function.

    At this stage, the Council of Europe has confirmed the tribunal will work within its legal framework and principles. It will be funded by an international coalition of supportive states.

    A management committee of members and associate members of the tribunal will be responsible for the election of the tribunal’s judges and prosecutors. The management committee is made up of the Council of Europe’s council of ministers and Ukraine.

    Diplomatic discussions are still ongoing at this point, but the legal process for establishing the special tribunal can begin now.

    Will this special tribunal be more effective?

    Political, legal and practical challenges for the special tribunal remain. It’s unclear if the most senior Russian state officials can and will be able to be brought to trial for the crime of aggression.

    Nothing, so far, suggests the statute of the tribunal will contain an exception to state immunity enjoyed by heads of state, heads of governments and foreign ministers while in power.

    That means these office holders can only be prosecuted if they are no longer in power or the Russian government expressly waives their immunity.

    It’s also unclear whether states will be willing to arrest those sought by the special tribunal.

    The ICC has long faced this challenge trying to get states to act on its arrest warrants.

    Hungary, for instance, did not arrest Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visited in April, despite an ICC arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza.

    For the special tribunal to be effective, according to Oleksandra Matviichuk, it:

    must not become a remote and hollow entity that does not engage with the Ukrainian victims.

    Overall, much remains unclear. Will this new special tribunal be able to hold the likes of Putin accountable for the crime of aggression? Or will it become another empty promise?

    Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective-257823

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: expert reaction to observational study of blood biomarkers in ME/CFS patients

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    June 20, 2025

    An observational study published in EMBO Molecular Medicine looks at blood biomarkers in ME/CFS patients. 

    Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, Open University, said:

    “I think this is an important piece of research, but it’s also important to be careful not to claim too much from its findings. There’s a lot more to do.

    “The press release and the research paper both make it clear that these findings could help in finding a set of blood biomarkers that can reasonably reliably distinguish people with ME/CFS from those who do not have that condition, but that, without a lot of further work, the findings do not in themselves provide such a set of biomarkers. For instance, the last sentence of the abstract of the paper says, “Nevertheless, their number [of traits that differed between people with ME/CFS and people without that condition], diversity and lack of sex bias keep alive the future ambition of a blood-based biomarker panel for accurate ME/CFS diagnosis.” I hope personally that that ambition can be achieved, but the researchers are careful not to say that their findings indicate that it will definitely be achieved.

    “A strength of the study is that it uses data from the very large UK Biobank study, based on over 1,400 people who reported they had been diagnosed with ME/CFS and over 130,000 ‘controls’ who had not had that diagnosis, as well as data from a smaller (but still quite large) US study called All-of-Us. 

    “But, in the research paper, the researchers are very careful to say that they are reporting associations, that is, correlations, between blood measurements and whether or not people have ME/CFS, and that, to quote the paper, “no causal statements are made” about those associations. That’s essentially because data from the UK Biobank is observational. Any differences between the group with ME/CFS and the controls without ME/CFS could be caused by the different disease status, but it could also, in whole or in part, be caused by other differences (so-called potential confounders) between people with and without ME/CFS that are not a direct consequence of that condition. 

    “The researchers did use methods of what’s called causal inference to try to throw further light in what causes what, and in particular they found that the differences in blood measurements were unlikely to stem from the fact that people with ME/CFS typically exercise less than people without that condition. That’s a useful and important finding, I think. But other potential confounders couldn’t be dealt with in a similar way, so other aspects of cause and effect just can’t be sorted out. Indeed (as the researchers mention) the possible existence of other confounders means that the assumptions behind the analyses involving exercise may not entirely be valid. To get further with all this will need a lot more, and different, research, including work on what may actually be causing the observed differences within people’s bodies.

    “There are also some issues stemming from the use of data from the UK Biobank. Again this is reported in the research paper. For instance, participants who volunteered for the Biobank are healthier than the average UK population, and the research paper mentions that people with severe ME/CFS may simply not have been able to go through the assessment and data collection process required, and so are unlikely to have contributed towards the findings on a large scale.

    “Also, because the recording of ME/CFS diagnoses took place some time ago, people’s status on ME/CFS is not in accord with the definitions of the condition that are generally used now. Roughly half of the people who were treated as having ME/CFS did not state that they had post-exertional malaise (PEM for short, a major worsening of symptoms after even minor mental or physical exertion). Post-exertional malaise is now generally considered an essential part of ME/CFS, and people who do not have it would under most up-to-date conditions not be considered to have ME/CFS. But in the past, post-exertional malaise was not considered an essential part of the definition of the disease, so people in the UK Biobank who were diagnosed with ME/CFS in the past might not have had post-exertional malaise.

    “Arguably, this does not really weaken the findings of this study.  The strongest evidence on potential biomarkers was in people who did have post-exertional malaise. But the study did still find some differences in potential biomarkers between people who had had an ME/CFS diagnosis but did not report post-exertional malaise, and the control people who had never had an ME/CFS diagnosis. If these people who would once have been diagnosed with ME/CFS, and who may still have really disabling and long-lasting symptoms, are defined as not having ME/CFS and are not included in developing biomarkers, does that have consequences for the treatment they can receive? Obviously this new study isn’t intended to answer that kind of question, but it’s something that shouldn’t be forgotten as biomarker research for ME/CFS moves on.”

    ‘Replicated blood-based biomarkers for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis not explicable by inactivity’ by Sjoerd Viktor Beentjes et al. was published in EMBO Molecular Medicine at 00:01 UK time on Friday 20th June. 

    Declared interests

    Prof Kevin McConway: No conflicts of interest

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: £750,000 to break down barriers and get more young people into aviation jobs

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    Press release

    £750,000 to break down barriers and get more young people into aviation jobs

    Organisations have until 12 September 2025 to apply for the latest Reach for the Sky Challenge fund.

    • new funding will break down barriers and help young people from disadvantaged backgrounds into aviation careers
    • this brings the Reach for the Sky Challenge Fund to over £3 million: helping to secure the pilots, engineers and aviation professionals of the future
    • this funding will further turbocharge the £20 billion air transport and aerospace sector, supporting its 240,000 UK jobs and delivering growth through our Plan for Change

    The next generation of pilots and engineers will benefit from new £750,000 funding to inspire them, support them into jobs and break down barriers to the sector.

    Organisations can, from today (20 June 2025), apply for the latest Reach for the Sky Challenge Fund to help deliver aviation outreach programmes targeting disadvantaged young people, including those from ethnic minorities, who may not have considered a career in the sector before.  

    Now on its fourth round, Reach for the Sky Challenge Fund has already delivered £2.5 million to 40 organisations and has reached over 100,000 young people across the country.

    Funding can be used to deliver a range of programmes from career events, mentorship schemes, interactive demonstrations and educational initiatives with schools and universities.  

    This builds on the government’s promise to secure the long-term success of aviation by growing the workforce of the future. It will also break down the barriers which prevent people from joining the industry, including limited access to education, financial constraints and lack of exposure to career options.

    To launch the funding, Aviation Minister Mike Kane visited a careers workshop being held by current funding recipients, The King’s Trust, in a Liverpool youth centre. Young adults, ranging from 16 to 30, met aviation specialists, learning about the job opportunities locally in the industry and how to apply. They also took part in employability workshops focused on developing the practical skills needed for work.

    Aviation Minister, Mike Kane, said:

    This is exactly what this government is all about – breaking down barriers to opportunity so that everyone, no matter their background, has a decent shot at getting a good career and building a good life. 

    This funding will enable organisations like The King’s Trust to reach out to disadvantaged kids and support them into careers in aviation.  

    It also delivers on our promise to help the sector grow, by delivering the pilots, engineers and technicians of the future, boosting jobs and growth across the country as part of the Plan for Change.

    Such DfT-funded schemes have already supported over 100,000 young adults across the country to consider joining the industry.

    Aspiring aerospace engineer James, 24, from Bath, has struggled to find work since finishing school. Challenges with his mental health impacted his studies and confidence, and he left without the qualifications he wanted. 

    After completing a King’s Trust ‘Get Ready with Aviation’ programme last November, he successfully applied to study science, engineering and maths at Bristol University and starts in September.

    James said:

    Before the programme, I felt lost and uncertain about my future. I’d always been interested in space, but didn’t know where to start or what my options were. It felt out of reach. The programme helped me realise that working in the industry is possible and inspired me to apply for university and pursue my dream.

    Applications for the fund are now open until 12 September 2025 and applications will be reviewed by a joint panel of  DfT and UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) , which administers the fund on DfT’s behalf.

    Sophie Jones, STEM Sponsor at the CAA, said:

    As the aviation regulator, we are dedicated to inspiring the next generation who will take the sector forward.

    The Reach for the Sky Challenge Fund helps reach people making the first step.

    By reaching and empowering diverse communities and creating a lasting impact, we are inspiring young people across the UK to explore exciting careers in aviation.

    Julia Beaumont, Chief Technology and Programmes Officer at The King’s Trust, said:

    During the past 2 years, this funding has been vital in raising awareness of the job opportunities available for young people in the aviation industry, alongside equipping them with the confidence and skills to pursue these roles.  

    With a rapidly changing jobs market, supporting this generation to overcome the barriers they face in accessing these opportunities is crucial, not only benefiting them, but also their local communities and economy.

    Jeni Trice, CEO and Chief Coding Adventurer at Get with the Program, said:

    We’re already so pleased by the fantastic impact of our 2024 Reach for the Sky grant, which is helping us inspire 18,000 children aged 5 to 8 to become the aerospace tech innovators of the future.

    We know that higher aspirations, skills development, and social mobility opportunities are all vital for the UK’s future economic success and through this grant funding, we’ve been able to deliver initiatives, such as our ‘Moon Landing Coding Adventure’, which exposes children to exciting STEM careers in aerospace.

    Mariya Tarabanovska, Founder of Flight Crowd and DfT Aviation Ambassador, said:

    Thanks to this funding, Flight Crowd has connected the next generation of talent with the fast-evolving Future Flight sector — delivering outreach, mentoring, 1:1 career support and industry insights that have empowered over 400 students to shape the skies of tomorrow.

    As a 2-time recipient and DfT Aviation Ambassador, I know how vital it is to invest in our future workforce. This is an unmissable opportunity for organisations to create real, lasting impact.

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    Published 20 June 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University

    Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images

    As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the Australian Sports Foundation (ASF), has launched a new joint fundraising initiative allowing Australians to make tax-deductible donations directly to Australia’s Olympians and Paralympians.

    The ASF is an “Item 1” Deductible Gift Recipient (DGR) and is the only organisation in Australia that allows a donor to claim a tax deduction for philanthropic donations to sport.

    This is because sport is not currently eligible for either DGR or charitable status under Australian law.

    But is this new joint fundraising initiative a gold medal idea for our athletes, or one that falls short of a podium finish?

    Aussies tax payers and Olympic dreams

    The new initiative, named the “Aspiring Australian Olympian Funding program”, means individual donations of A$2 or more made through the ASF are tax-deductible.

    Australians can direct funds to a specific athlete, coach or official selected to participate in representative, elite or high performance sport in the Olympic/Paralympic program (summer and winter).

    Depending on the donor’s marginal tax rate, the effective cost of a donation may be reduced up to 62% for the highest earners (over $250,000).

    For instance, a $1,000 donation could yield a tax refund of up to $470, bringing the net cost down to just $530.

    Companies paying the full company tax rate that donate $1,000 would reduce their tax by $300 (30%).

    Ahead of the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, more than 30 Australian athletes (from disciplines such as alpine skiing, bobsleigh and figure skating) have signed up to use the platform.

    However, many Australian athletes are struggling financially, so more financial support is needed.

    The brutal reality for many athletes

    The ASF’s 2023 “Running on Empty” report found many of Australia’s elite athletes were under significant financial pressure: 46% of those over the age of 18 were earning less than $23,000 per year. This places them below the poverty line at $489 a week.

    The report also found 67% of elite athletes said their financial struggles affected their parents and support networks. Also, 42% of elite athletes aged 18-34 reported they were suffering poor mental health as a result of their financial predicament.

    The report also found the costs of training, equipment, travel and accommodation continued to rise, resulting in many questioning the sustainability of elite sport funding models both here and abroad.

    Pros and cons

    The new funding program’s use of tax incentives as a funding carrot is good in principle, but there are potential unintended consequences.

    This includes athletes being pitted against one another: there is a danger the athletes best skilled in marketing and public relations will receive more funding.

    The current economic climate doesn’t bode well for the program. Many Australians are facing cost-of-living pressures, which means a lot of people may not be able to donate even if they want to.

    Also, what happens if an athlete who benefits from the program is injured or found to be a drug cheat, and can’t compete? Can a donor request a refund?

    Finally, taxpayers who have the most capacity to donate are likely high income earners, some of whom may donate to sport entities already. Now, their donations will be subsidised by the tax system.

    Some alternative ideas

    In the United Kingdom, National Lottery revenue plays a significant role in funding Olympic and Paralympic sports. Administered by UK Sport (the UK’s equivalent of the ASC) funds from the lottery are directed to high performance sports programs and athletes.

    This approach could be replicated in Australia.

    Another idea is to redirect a portion of government taxes collected from sports betting, which could be lucrative given Australia’s love of sports gambling.




    Read more:
    Gambling in Australia: how bad is the problem, who gets harmed most and where may we be heading?


    The federal government could offer a further incentive by matching peoples’ donations dollar for dollar.

    As we direct funds to athletes, we need also think about the potential tax impact for them. Will the funds they receive be considered income and be taxed? The government could consider making the payment to the athlete tax free.

    If we are going to succeed on the world stage, especially as the 2032 Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games approach, we need to financially support our athletes so they can focus on representing their country.

    Michelle O’Shea receives funding from the Olympic Studies Centre.

    Connie Vitale receives funding from the federal government as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. She is affiliated with the Institute of Public Accountants and Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand.

    Robert B Whait receives funding from the federal government as part of the National Tax Clinic Program, Financial Literacy Australia (now Ecstra Foundation), ANZ Bank, and the Consumer Policy Research Centre (CPRC). He is affiliated with the Tax Institute of Australia and Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand.

    – ref. Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem – https://theconversation.com/many-elite-athletes-live-below-the-poverty-line-tax-deductible-donations-wont-solve-the-problem-258914

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Nuclear scientists  have long been targets in covert ops – Israel has brought that policy out of the shadows

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jenna Jordan, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology

    Portraits of Iranian military generals and nuclear scientists killed in Israel’s June 13, 2025, attack are displayed on a sign as a plume of heavy smoke and fire rise from an oil refinery in southern Tehran Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

    At least 14 nuclear scientists are believed to be among those killed in Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, launched on June 13, 2025, ostensibly to destroy or degrade Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities.

    Deliberately targeting scientists in this way aims to disrupt Iran’s knowledge base and continuity in nuclear expertise. Among those assassinated were Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a theoretical physicist and head of Iran’s Islamic Azad University, and Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, a nuclear engineer who led Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.

    Collectively, these experts in physics and engineering were potential successors to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, widely regarded as the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, who was assassinated in a November 2020 attack many blame on Israel.

    As two political scientists writing a book about state targeting of scientists as a counterproliferation tool, we understand well that nuclear scientists have been targeted since the nuclear age began. We have gathered data on nearly 100 instances of what we call “scientist targeting” from 1944 through 2025.

    The most recent assassination campaign against Iranian scientists is different from many of the earlier episodes in a few key ways. Israel’s recent attack targeted multiple nuclear experts and took place simultaneously with military force to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, air defenses and energy infrastructure. Also, unlike previous covert operations, Israel immediately claimed responsibility for the assassinations.

    But our research indicates that targeting scientists may not be effective for counterproliferation. While removing individual expertise may delay nuclear acquisition, targeting alone is unlikely to destroy a program outright and could even increase a country’s desire for nuclear weapons. Further, targeting scientists may trigger blowback given concerns regarding legality and morality.

    A policy with a long history

    Targeting nuclear scientists began during World War II when Allied and Soviet forces raced to capture Nazi scientists, degrade Adolf Hitler’s ability to build a nuclear bomb and use their expertise to advance the U.S. and Soviet nuclear programs.

    In our data set, we classified “targeting” as cases in which scientists were captured, threatened, injured or killed as nations tried to prevent adversaries from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Over time, at least four countries have targeted scientists working on nine national nuclear programs.

    The United States and Israel have allegedly carried out the most attacks on nuclear scientists. But the United Kingdom and Soviet Union have also been behind such attacks.

    Meanwhile, scientists working for the Egyptian, Iranian and Iraqi nuclear programs have been the most frequent targets since 1950. Since 2007 and prior to the current Israeli operation, 10 scientists involved in the Iranian nuclear program were killed in attacks. Other countries’ nationals have also been targeted: In 1980, Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, allegedly bombed Italian engineer Mario Fiorelli’s home and his firm, SNIA Techint, as a warning to Europeans involved in the Iraqi nuclear project.

    Given this history, the fact that Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program is not itself surprising. Indeed, it has been a strategic goal of successive Israeli prime ministers to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and experts had been warning of the increased likelihood of an Israeli military operation since mid-2024, due to regional dynamics and Iranian nuclear development.

    The wrecked cars in which four of Iran’s nuclear scientists were assassinated in recent years are displayed on the grounds of a museum in Tehran in 2014.
    Scott Peterson/Getty Images

    By then, the balance of power in the Middle East had changed dramatically. Israel systematically degraded the leadership and infrastructure of Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. It later destroyed Iranian air defenses around Tehran and near key nuclear installations. The subsequent fall of Syria’s Assad regime cost Tehran another long-standing ally. Together, these developments have significantly weakened Iran, leaving it vulnerable to external attack and stripped of its once-feared proxy network, which had been expected to retaliate on its behalf in the event of hostilities.

    With its proxy “axis of resistance” defanged and conventional military capacity degraded, Iranian leadership may have thought that expanding its enrichment capability was its best bet going forward.

    And in the months leading up to Israel’s recent attack, Iran expanded its nuclear production capacity, moving beyond 60% uranium enrichment, a technical step just short of weapons-grade material. During Donald Trump’s first term, the president withdrew the U.S. from a multilateral nonproliferation agreement aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program. After being reelected, Trump appeared to change tack by pursuing new diplomacy with Iran, but those talks have so far failed to deliver an agreement – and may be put on hold for the foreseeable future amid the war.

    Most recently, the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors declared Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear-nonproliferation obligations. In response, Iran announced it was further expanding its enrichment capacity by adding advanced centrifuge technology and a third enrichment site.

    Even if the international community anticipated the broader attack on Iran, characteristics of the targeting itself are surprising. Historically, states have covertly targeted individual scientists. But the recent multiple-scientist attack occurred openly, with Israel taking responsibility, publicly indicating the attacks’ purpose. Further, while it is not new for a country to use multiple counter-proliferation tools against an adversary over time, that Israel is using both preventive military force against infrastructure and targeting scientists at once is atypical.

    Additionally, such attacks against scientists are historically lower tech and low cost, with death or injury stemming from gunmen, car bombs or accidents. In fact, Abbasi – who was killed in the most recent attacks – survived a 2010 car bombing in Tehran. There are outliers, however, including the Fakhrizadeh assassination, which featured a remotely operated machine gun smuggled into Iranian territory.

    Israel’s logic in going after scientists

    Why target nuclear scientists?

    In foreign policy, there are numerous tools available if one state aims to prevent another state from acquiring nuclear weapons. Alongside targeting scientists, there are sanctions, diplomacy, cyberattacks and military force.

    Targeting scientists may remove critical scientific expertise and impose costs that increase the difficulty of building nuclear weapons. Proponents argue that targeting these experts may undermine a state’s efforts, deter it from continuing nuclear developments and signal to others the perils of supporting nuclear proliferation.

    Countries that target scientists therefore believe that doing so is an effective way to degrade an adversary’s nuclear program. Indeed, the Israel Defense Forces described the most recent attacks as “a significant blow to the regime’s ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction.”

    Posters featuring images of Iranian nuclear scientists are displayed in Tehran, Iran, on June 14, 2025.
    Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images

    Despite Israel’s focus on scientists as sources of critical knowledge, there may be thousands more working inside Iran, calling into question the efficacy of targeting them. Further, there are legal, ethical and moral concerns over targeting scientists.

    Moreover, it is a risky option that may fail to disrupt an enemy nuclear program while sparking public outrage and calls for retaliation. This is especially the case if scientists, often regarded as civilians, are elevated as martyrs.

    Targeting campaigns may, as a result, reinforce domestic support for a government, which could then redouble efforts toward nuclear development.

    Regardless of whether targeting scientists is an effective counter-proliferation tool, it has been around since the start of the nuclear age – and will likely persist as part of the foreign policy toolkit for states aiming to prevent proliferation. In the case of the current Israeli conflict with Iran and its targeting of nuclear scientists, we expect the tactic to continue for the duration of the war and beyond.

    Rachel Whitlark is a nonresident senior fellow in the Forward Defense practice of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

    Jenna Jordan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nuclear scientists  have long been targets in covert ops – Israel has brought that policy out of the shadows – https://theconversation.com/nuclear-scientists-have-long-been-targets-in-covert-ops-israel-has-brought-that-policy-out-of-the-shadows-259263

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Canada: Registration open for training grant that supports in-demand jobs

    Source: Government of Canada regional news

    People hoping to build better careers will continue to have access to a popular grant program, as registration for StrongerBC future skills grant funded programming opens for the fall semester.

    People living in British Columbia can continue to access grants for eligible short-term training programs at public post-secondary institutions, giving them more opportunities to gain new skills for in-demand jobs. The grant covers up to $3,500 and is open to B.C. residents over age 19.

    “British Columbia is the engine of Canada’s new economy, but it’s the strength of our workforce that drives the machine,” said Anne Kang, Minister of Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills. “The StrongerBC future skills grant removes barriers so more people can get the skills they need to start or advance their careers. By helping more people get into the workforce, we’re closing the skills gap and building a more robust economy.”

    Since its launch in fall 2023, more than 10,000 people have benefited from the grant, which plays a pivotal role in preparing people for current and emerging job markets.

    “I’m grateful for the opportunity that the future skills grant has given me to complete a risk management professional certificate from Simon Fraser University,” said Erica Commons, recent grant recipient and current student. “This training is already benefiting me in my current role as an enterprise risk manager, and the certificate satisfies the education requirements for the Canadian Risk Management designation, which is highly valued by employers. Obtaining this designation will help advance my career.”

    More than 300 programs are eligible for the grant at 24 public post-secondary institutions throughout B.C. The eligible programs address the province’s labour market needs and government priorities, including training opportunities in high-demand sectors, such as health care, construction and mining.

    “The StrongerBC future skills grant made it possible for me to enrol in Simon Fraser University’s climate action certificate, training I needed to retool my communications career for the climate future we all face,” said Michelle Gaudet, recent grant recipient and program graduate. “This grant allowed me to gain essential skills without taking on debt. Accessible education funding like this is key to helping people pursue meaningful learning opportunities.”

    Course offerings from participating post-secondary institutions will be released daily throughout the months of June and July. Those interested should check Education Planner BC or the post-secondary institution they plan to attend frequently for updates and program additions.

    Learning opportunities include in-person, online or hybrid delivery, making it easier for people throughout B.C. to find training that fits. Types of training that are supported include:

    • health-care training, such as medical terminology, emergency medical responder and dental office administration;
    • trades and firefighting training, such as construction, automotive (electric vehicle) repair services, and wildfire fighting;
    • professional, scientific and technical training, such as cybersecurity training and digital marketing; and
    • other certificates and micro-credentials across many industries, including education, mining and marine transportation, finance and more.

    The StrongerBC: Future Ready Action Plan is a cross-government plan to make education and training more accessible, affordable and relevant to help prepare the people of B.C. for the jobs of today and tomorrow.

    Learn More:

    To explore and register for eligible programs as they are rolled out over June and July, visit Education Planner BC: https://www.educationplannerbc.ca/future-skills-grant (can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com)

    For general information about the future skills grant, visit: https://www.workbc.ca/find-loans-and-grants/students-and-adult-learners/strongerbc-future-skills-grant

    To learn more about the StrongerBC: Future Ready Action Plan, visit: https://strongerbc.gov.bc.ca/jobs-and-training/

    A backgrounder follows.

    MIL OSI Canada News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney

    Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images

    When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever.

    Unlike the generations of filmgoers who were afraid of sharks and going into the water during its initial release in 1975, I fell in love with the water and sharks.

    Steven Spielberg’s film was the first summer blockbuster, received Academy Awards for sound, editing and music, and became the first film to earn US$100 million at the United States box office.

    It was only the third film for the 28-year-old Steven Spielberg, and his second theatrical release (his first film, Duel, was made for TV), and success arrived only after much trouble.

    Jaws was only the second feature film for Spielberg, pictured here on set.
    Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Image

    A marketed behemoth

    Chief of Police Martin Brody (Roy Scheider) has recently moved from New York City to Amity Island with his wife, Ellen (Lorriane Gary), and their two children. As the small town prepares for its crucial 4th of July celebrations, a series of shark attacks threatens the festivities – and the town’s summer economy.

    Mayor Larry Vaughan (Murray Hamilton) insists on keeping the beaches open for “summer dollars”. When the shark strikes again, local fisherman Quint (Robert Shaw) is hired to hunt it down. Brody and visiting marine biologist Matt Hooper (Richard Dreyfuss) insist on joining the expedition to save the island.

    The film was advertised as a suspense and horror monster movie. In what director Spielberg described as a marketing “blitzkrieg” campaign, Jaws, was released in the summer – peak swimming season.

    Universal Pictures made sure every household knew about the film. There were multiple TV spots, a cover on Time Magazine, talk show appearances from cast and crew, and a wave of merchandise. It was the most money the company had ever spent on a film’s pre-release marketing.

    The first American film released in more than 400 theatres at once, Jaws found its audience with overwhelmingly positive reviews and word of mouth – because Jaws was also extremely well made.

    Wrangling the shark

    Peter Benchley was hired to adapt his novel, but another screenwriter, Carl Gottlieb, was brought in to redraft Benchley’s more serious narrative and provide comic relief.

    Jaws was initially planned for 55 days of shooting, but ballooned to 159 days and $8 million over budget. The main reason: the shark.

    Apart from one scene using real underwater shark footage from Australians Ron and Valerie Taylor, the shark was mechanical. There were three sharks made for the film, all nicknamed “Bruce” after Spielberg’s lawyer.

    Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts depicted the fictional Amity Island, and much of the second half was shot in water.

    Much of the second half of the film was shot on the water.
    Photo by Universal Studios/Courtesy of Getty Images

    The mechanical shark sank … a lot. No wonder Spielberg named the temperamental and unreliable shark after his lawyer.

    With the lack of a functioning shark, Spielberg made the artistic decision – echoing Alfred Hitchcock – to suggest the shark’s presence rather than show it outright in the film’s first half.

    Spielberg even quotes Hitchcock’s Vertigo shot (a dolly zoom) in the scene when Brody realises a shark attack is unfolding under his watch.

    Even without appearing onscreen, the shark has an overwhelming presence and effect on the audience, thanks to John Williams’ music: most of the film’s cues are associated with the shark.

    Tension onscreen

    One of my favourite moments in the film is in the aftermath of an attack on the young Alex Kintner (and poor dog Pippet!). Brody is slapped in the face by the mother of the slain Alex – but this is followed by a cute and wholesome encounter between Chief Brody and his son Sean.

    As a father, Brody’s failure to prevent the attack on Alex reflects his loss of authority to capitalism. The water is the island’s summer revenue, and the hungry shark swims in it.

    The film could have seen an early shark attack and immediately launched a shark hunt. However, the shark doesn’t appear much at all for a monster movie due to its malfunctioning. This worked in the film’s favour.

    Instead, the film relied on good writing and strong performances to heighten the tension and build anticipation for the rare moments the shark has onscreen.

    A lot of the film’s success comes from the dynamic and well-written trio of Brody, Hooper and Quint. In the final act set at sea with just the three leads on a boat surrounded by the shark, they needed to deliver – and they did, arguably stealing the movie from the shark.

    Possibly the most famous scene in the entire film comes when the shark is fully revealed for the first time. Startled by its size, Brody backs into the cabin and delivers an improvised line: “you’re gonna need a bigger boat”.

    Dreyfuss and Shaw famously didn’t get along in real life. You can see that tension play out onscreen. It arguably enhances their performances.

    Still, one of the most iconic moments comes when Dreyfuss’s Hooper is left speechless by Quint’s USS Indianapolis monologue, describing being in the water with sharks after the warship was torpedoed.

    The monologue was scripted, but Shaw improvised much of it.

    A cinema classic

    Jaws is now a cinema classic.

    It launched Spielberg’s illustrious career, scared an entire generation from going into the water, and also inspired a new generation of marine activists – such as myself – who love sharks and the ocean.

    I hope you’ll join me in revisiting Amity Island one more time to watch this timeless film that, apart from its mechanical shark, completely works.

    Will Jeffery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work – https://theconversation.com/jaws-at-50-the-first-summer-blockbuster-is-still-a-film-that-bites-even-when-the-shark-didnt-work-246247

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney

    Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images

    When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever.

    Unlike the generations of filmgoers who were afraid of sharks and going into the water during its initial release in 1975, I fell in love with the water and sharks.

    Steven Spielberg’s film was the first summer blockbuster, received Academy Awards for sound, editing and music, and became the first film to earn US$100 million at the United States box office.

    It was only the third film for the 28-year-old Steven Spielberg, and his second theatrical release (his first film, Duel, was made for TV), and success arrived only after much trouble.

    Jaws was only the second feature film for Spielberg, pictured here on set.
    Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Image

    A marketed behemoth

    Chief of Police Martin Brody (Roy Scheider) has recently moved from New York City to Amity Island with his wife, Ellen (Lorriane Gary), and their two children. As the small town prepares for its crucial 4th of July celebrations, a series of shark attacks threatens the festivities – and the town’s summer economy.

    Mayor Larry Vaughan (Murray Hamilton) insists on keeping the beaches open for “summer dollars”. When the shark strikes again, local fisherman Quint (Robert Shaw) is hired to hunt it down. Brody and visiting marine biologist Matt Hooper (Richard Dreyfuss) insist on joining the expedition to save the island.

    The film was advertised as a suspense and horror monster movie. In what director Spielberg described as a marketing “blitzkrieg” campaign, Jaws, was released in the summer – peak swimming season.

    Universal Pictures made sure every household knew about the film. There were multiple TV spots, a cover on Time Magazine, talk show appearances from cast and crew, and a wave of merchandise. It was the most money the company had ever spent on a film’s pre-release marketing.

    The first American film released in more than 400 theatres at once, Jaws found its audience with overwhelmingly positive reviews and word of mouth – because Jaws was also extremely well made.

    Wrangling the shark

    Peter Benchley was hired to adapt his novel, but another screenwriter, Carl Gottlieb, was brought in to redraft Benchley’s more serious narrative and provide comic relief.

    Jaws was initially planned for 55 days of shooting, but ballooned to 159 days and $8 million over budget. The main reason: the shark.

    Apart from one scene using real underwater shark footage from Australians Ron and Valerie Taylor, the shark was mechanical. There were three sharks made for the film, all nicknamed “Bruce” after Spielberg’s lawyer.

    Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts depicted the fictional Amity Island, and much of the second half was shot in water.

    Much of the second half of the film was shot on the water.
    Photo by Universal Studios/Courtesy of Getty Images

    The mechanical shark sank … a lot. No wonder Spielberg named the temperamental and unreliable shark after his lawyer.

    With the lack of a functioning shark, Spielberg made the artistic decision – echoing Alfred Hitchcock – to suggest the shark’s presence rather than show it outright in the film’s first half.

    Spielberg even quotes Hitchcock’s Vertigo shot (a dolly zoom) in the scene when Brody realises a shark attack is unfolding under his watch.

    Even without appearing onscreen, the shark has an overwhelming presence and effect on the audience, thanks to John Williams’ music: most of the film’s cues are associated with the shark.

    Tension onscreen

    One of my favourite moments in the film is in the aftermath of an attack on the young Alex Kintner (and poor dog Pippet!). Brody is slapped in the face by the mother of the slain Alex – but this is followed by a cute and wholesome encounter between Chief Brody and his son Sean.

    As a father, Brody’s failure to prevent the attack on Alex reflects his loss of authority to capitalism. The water is the island’s summer revenue, and the hungry shark swims in it.

    The film could have seen an early shark attack and immediately launched a shark hunt. However, the shark doesn’t appear much at all for a monster movie due to its malfunctioning. This worked in the film’s favour.

    Instead, the film relied on good writing and strong performances to heighten the tension and build anticipation for the rare moments the shark has onscreen.

    A lot of the film’s success comes from the dynamic and well-written trio of Brody, Hooper and Quint. In the final act set at sea with just the three leads on a boat surrounded by the shark, they needed to deliver – and they did, arguably stealing the movie from the shark.

    Possibly the most famous scene in the entire film comes when the shark is fully revealed for the first time. Startled by its size, Brody backs into the cabin and delivers an improvised line: “you’re gonna need a bigger boat”.

    Dreyfuss and Shaw famously didn’t get along in real life. You can see that tension play out onscreen. It arguably enhances their performances.

    Still, one of the most iconic moments comes when Dreyfuss’s Hooper is left speechless by Quint’s USS Indianapolis monologue, describing being in the water with sharks after the warship was torpedoed.

    The monologue was scripted, but Shaw improvised much of it.

    A cinema classic

    Jaws is now a cinema classic.

    It launched Spielberg’s illustrious career, scared an entire generation from going into the water, and also inspired a new generation of marine activists – such as myself – who love sharks and the ocean.

    I hope you’ll join me in revisiting Amity Island one more time to watch this timeless film that, apart from its mechanical shark, completely works.

    Will Jeffery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work – https://theconversation.com/jaws-at-50-the-first-summer-blockbuster-is-still-a-film-that-bites-even-when-the-shark-didnt-work-246247

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania

    When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized boost to its coffers from the federal government.

    In 2018, the Morrison government – with the full support of the then Labor opposition – handed WA a special deal for the distribution of income from the goods and service tax (GST).

    Under the deal, WA gets a much greater share of the centrally collected GST revenue than it would have been entitled to under the methods previously used by the Commonwealth Grants Commission.

    So what can be done to ensure a return to a fairer distribution of the GST revenue?

    How the GST carve-up is supposed to work

    The 2018 deal upended a principle known as “horizontal fiscal equalisation”. This principle seeks to ensure each state and territory has the fiscal capacity to provide its residents with a broadly similar range and quality of public services, while levying a similar level of state taxes. This applies to states with different populations and needs.

    That principle is the main reason why the quality of health care, schooling and policing in your community depends much less on which state you happen to live in, compared with other countries with a federal system. Just think of the United States.

    But that principle was jettisoned in the pursuit, by both major parties, of seats from WA in the House of Representatives, which in effect determined the outcome of the 2016, 2019 and 2022 elections.


    WA gets a much greater share of GST revenue than under methods once used by the Commonwealth Grants Commission.

    Holding onto the mineral wealth

    During the mining boom starting in 2000, WA became rich. While it previously received extra grants from other states, it was now having to share income from mining royalties with other states.

    But the 2018 amendment changed how the GST revenue is distributed. Instead of equalising all states to have the fiscal strength of the strongest state (such as WA during the boom), funds were now equalised to the stronger of New South Wales or Victoria. States are also guaranteed a minimum per capita share of revenue.

    The only state that benefits from these changes is Australia’s richest state: WA. Since 2018-19 it has received A$24.2 billion more than it would have done had the 2018 changes not been made.

    Combined with the $58.3 billion it has collected in mineral royalties over the past seven years, that has enabled WA to rack up cash surpluses totalling more than $18 billion. Every other state and territory recorded cash deficits over that time.

    Over the next four years, WA will receive $26.3 billion more from the carve-up of GST revenues than it would otherwise have done.

    No one worse off?

    To cajole the other states and territories into accepting this “deal”, the Morrison government agreed to “top up” the revenue from the GST to ensure none would be any worse off than if the long-standing system had remained in place.

    It estimated this “No Worse Off guarantee” (or NoWO as it is now called) would cost the federal budget $8 billion over the nine years to 2026-27, when NoWO would expire.

    To avoid expected pushback from the other states, the Albanese government agreed in 2023 to extend NoWO by another three years. It is now expected it will have cost the federal budget almost $60 billion by its scheduled expiry in 2029-30.

    This is the biggest blow-out in the cost of any single policy decision, with the exception of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). This $52 billion blowout from the GST carve-up represents a massive drain on the federal budget, at a time when it is forecast to be in deficit for the next ten years, to appease the greed of Australia’s richest, and luckiest, state.

    A government that truly believed in equity, and was committed to prudent and responsible budget outcomes, would scrap this appalling piece of public policy. And an Opposition that was sincere in its claims to stand for fiscal responsibility would support any move by the government to do so.

    The system is not working as intended

    The 2018 legislation requires the Productivity Commission to report, by the end of 2026, on whether the new system is working “efficiently, effectively and as intended”. Since it clearly wasn’t intended for the changes to cost anywhere near as much as they have done, the answer to that question must surely be a resounding “no”.

    But rather than giving it such a narrow remit, the Treasurer could, and should, task the Productivity Commission with devising a way of achieving the long-standing objective of “horizontal fiscal equalisation” in a simpler, more transparent and more predictable way.

    This should be possible by reference to fewer than a dozen readily available economic, demographic and social indicators. These could replace the “black box” processes currently used by the Commonwealth Grants Commission to allocate GST. WA has been able to exploit this lack of transparency in pursuit of its claims on an unjustified share of GST revenue.

    Steven Kennedy, in his new role as head of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, is reportedly open to considering controversial tax changes, including the GST carve-up. Hopefully he will be making this suggestion to the Prime Minister.

    An inquiry by the Productivity Commission along these lines would enable the government to step away from the 2018 changes in the 2027-28 budget. That would, in turn, represent a substantial contribution towards the task of budget repair. And it would reinstate a principle that has helped make Australia a fairer, and better, country than it would otherwise have been.

    Saul Eslake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states? – https://theconversation.com/is-there-any-hope-for-a-fairer-carve-up-of-the-gst-between-the-states-258913

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania

    When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized boost to its coffers from the federal government.

    In 2018, the Morrison government – with the full support of the then Labor opposition – handed WA a special deal for the distribution of income from the goods and service tax (GST).

    Under the deal, WA gets a much greater share of the centrally collected GST revenue than it would have been entitled to under the methods previously used by the Commonwealth Grants Commission.

    So what can be done to ensure a return to a fairer distribution of the GST revenue?

    How the GST carve-up is supposed to work

    The 2018 deal upended a principle known as “horizontal fiscal equalisation”. This principle seeks to ensure each state and territory has the fiscal capacity to provide its residents with a broadly similar range and quality of public services, while levying a similar level of state taxes. This applies to states with different populations and needs.

    That principle is the main reason why the quality of health care, schooling and policing in your community depends much less on which state you happen to live in, compared with other countries with a federal system. Just think of the United States.

    But that principle was jettisoned in the pursuit, by both major parties, of seats from WA in the House of Representatives, which in effect determined the outcome of the 2016, 2019 and 2022 elections.


    WA gets a much greater share of GST revenue than under methods once used by the Commonwealth Grants Commission.

    Holding onto the mineral wealth

    During the mining boom starting in 2000, WA became rich. While it previously received extra grants from other states, it was now having to share income from mining royalties with other states.

    But the 2018 amendment changed how the GST revenue is distributed. Instead of equalising all states to have the fiscal strength of the strongest state (such as WA during the boom), funds were now equalised to the stronger of New South Wales or Victoria. States are also guaranteed a minimum per capita share of revenue.

    The only state that benefits from these changes is Australia’s richest state: WA. Since 2018-19 it has received A$24.2 billion more than it would have done had the 2018 changes not been made.

    Combined with the $58.3 billion it has collected in mineral royalties over the past seven years, that has enabled WA to rack up cash surpluses totalling more than $18 billion. Every other state and territory recorded cash deficits over that time.

    Over the next four years, WA will receive $26.3 billion more from the carve-up of GST revenues than it would otherwise have done.

    No one worse off?

    To cajole the other states and territories into accepting this “deal”, the Morrison government agreed to “top up” the revenue from the GST to ensure none would be any worse off than if the long-standing system had remained in place.

    It estimated this “No Worse Off guarantee” (or NoWO as it is now called) would cost the federal budget $8 billion over the nine years to 2026-27, when NoWO would expire.

    To avoid expected pushback from the other states, the Albanese government agreed in 2023 to extend NoWO by another three years. It is now expected it will have cost the federal budget almost $60 billion by its scheduled expiry in 2029-30.

    This is the biggest blow-out in the cost of any single policy decision, with the exception of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). This $52 billion blowout from the GST carve-up represents a massive drain on the federal budget, at a time when it is forecast to be in deficit for the next ten years, to appease the greed of Australia’s richest, and luckiest, state.

    A government that truly believed in equity, and was committed to prudent and responsible budget outcomes, would scrap this appalling piece of public policy. And an Opposition that was sincere in its claims to stand for fiscal responsibility would support any move by the government to do so.

    The system is not working as intended

    The 2018 legislation requires the Productivity Commission to report, by the end of 2026, on whether the new system is working “efficiently, effectively and as intended”. Since it clearly wasn’t intended for the changes to cost anywhere near as much as they have done, the answer to that question must surely be a resounding “no”.

    But rather than giving it such a narrow remit, the Treasurer could, and should, task the Productivity Commission with devising a way of achieving the long-standing objective of “horizontal fiscal equalisation” in a simpler, more transparent and more predictable way.

    This should be possible by reference to fewer than a dozen readily available economic, demographic and social indicators. These could replace the “black box” processes currently used by the Commonwealth Grants Commission to allocate GST. WA has been able to exploit this lack of transparency in pursuit of its claims on an unjustified share of GST revenue.

    Steven Kennedy, in his new role as head of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, is reportedly open to considering controversial tax changes, including the GST carve-up. Hopefully he will be making this suggestion to the Prime Minister.

    An inquiry by the Productivity Commission along these lines would enable the government to step away from the 2018 changes in the 2027-28 budget. That would, in turn, represent a substantial contribution towards the task of budget repair. And it would reinstate a principle that has helped make Australia a fairer, and better, country than it would otherwise have been.

    Saul Eslake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states? – https://theconversation.com/is-there-any-hope-for-a-fairer-carve-up-of-the-gst-between-the-states-258913

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Getty Images

    Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and general waste have dominated headlines.

    But the story is also a window into the wider debate about the politics of “fiscal responsibility” and austerity politics.

    As part of the mission to “cut waste” in government spending, ACT leader and Associate Education Minister David Seymour replaced the school-based scheme with a centralised program run by a catering corporation. The result was said to have delivered “saving for taxpayers” of $130 million – in line with the government’s overall drive for efficiency and cost cutting.

    While Finance Minister Nicola Willis dislikes the term “austerity”, her May budget cut the government’s operating allowance in half, to $1.3 billion. This came on top of budget cuts last year of around $4 billion.

    Similar policy doctrines have been subscribed to by governments of all political persuasions for decades. As economic growth (and the tax revenue it brings) has been harder for OECD countries to achieve over the past 50 years, governments have looked to make savings.

    What is strange, though, is that despite decades of austerity policies reducing welfare and outsourcing public services to the most competitive corporate bidder, state spending has kept increasing.

    New Zealand’s public expense as a percentage of GDP increased from 25.9% in 1972 to 35.9% in 2022. And this wasn’t unusual. The OECD as a whole saw an increase from 18.9% in 1972 to 29.9% in 2022.

    How can we make sense of so-called austerity when, despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever?

    Austerity and managerialism

    In a recent paper, I argued that the politics of austerity is not only about how much governments spend. It is also about who gets to decide how public money is used.

    Austerity sounds like it is about spending less, finding efficiencies or living within your means. But ever rising budgets mean it is about more than that.

    In particular, austerity is shaped by a centralising system that locks in corporate and bureaucratic control over public expenditure, while locking out people and communities affected by spending decisions. In other words, austerity is about democracy as much as economics.

    We typically turn to the ideology of neoliberalism – “Rogernomics” being the New Zealand variant – to explain the history of this. The familiar story is of a revolutionary clique taking over a bloated postwar state, reorienting it towards the global market, and making it run more like a business.

    Depending on your political persuasion, the contradiction of austerity’s growing cost reflects either the short-sightedness of market utopianism or the stubbornness of the public sector to reform.

    But while the 1980s neoliberal revolution was important, the roots of austerity’s managerial dimension go back further. And it was shaped less by a concern that spending was too high, and more by a desire to centralise control over a growing budget.

    Godfather of ‘rational’ budgeting: US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara at a Vietnam War briefing in 1964.
    Getty Images

    Many of the managerial techniques that have arrived in the public sector over the austerity years – such as results-based pay, corporate contracting, performance management or evaluation culture – have their origins in a budgetary revolution that took place in the 1960s at the US Department of Defense.

    In the early 1960s, Defense Secretary Robert McNamara was frustrated with being nominally in charge of budgeting but having to mediate between the seemingly arbitrary demands of military leaders for more tanks, submarines or missiles.

    In response, he called on the RAND Corporation, a US think tank and consultancy, to remake the Defense Department’s budgetary process to give the secretary greater capacity to plan.

    The outcome was called the Planning Programming Budgeting System. Its goal was to create a “rational” budget where policy objectives were clearly specified in quantified terms, the possible means to achieve them were fully costed, and performance indicators measuring progress were able to be reviewed.

    This approach might have made sense for strategic military purposes. But what happens when you apply the same logic to planning public spending in healthcare, education, housing – or school lunches? The past 50 years have largely been a process of finding out.

    What began as a set of techniques to help McNamara get control of military spending gradually diffused into social policy. These ideas travelled from the US and came to be known as the “New Public Management” framework that transformed state sectors all over the world.

    What are budgets for?

    Dramatic moments of spending cuts – such as the 1991 “Mother of all Budgets” in New Zealand or Elon Musk’s recent DOGE crusade in the US – stand out as major exercises in austerity. And fiscal responsibility is a firmly held conviction within mainstream political thinking.

    Nevertheless, government spending has become a major component of OECD economies. If we are to make sense of austerity in this world of permanent mass expenditure, we need a broader idea of what public spending is about.

    Budgets are classically thought to do three things. For economists, they are a tool of macroeconomic stabilisation: if growth goes down, “automatic stabilisers” inject public money into the economy to pick it back up.

    For social reformers, the budget is a means of progressively redistributing resources through tax and welfare systems. For accountants, the budget is a means of cost accountability: it holds a record of public spending and signals a society’s future commitments.

    But budgeting as described here also fulfils a fourth function – managerial planning. Decades of reform have made a significant portion of the state budget a managerial instrument for the pursuit of policy objectives.

    From this perspective, underlying common austerity rhetoric about eliminating waste, or achieving value for money, is a deeper political struggle over who decides how that public money is used.

    To return to New Zealand’s school lunch program, any savings achieved should not distract from the more significant democratic question of who should plan school lunches – and public spending more broadly.

    Should it be the chief executives of corporatised public organisations and outsourced conglomerates managing to KPIs on nutritional values and price per meal, serving the directives of government ministers? Or should it be those cooking, serving and eating the lunches?

    Ian Lovering is affiliated with the Tertiary Education Union Te Hautū Kahurangi o Aotearoa.

    – ref. Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this? – https://theconversation.com/despite-decades-of-cost-cutting-governments-spend-more-than-ever-how-can-we-make-sense-of-this-258902

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
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