India’s economy is thriving, bolstered by strong domestic demand, rural consumption, and a growing working-age population. Infrastructure investments are enhancing productivity in the manufacturing and services sectors, fostering high investor confidence.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Macroeconomic Outlook Report: India,” reveals that India’s GDP increased by 7.6% in 2023 and is projected to grow by 7.0% in 2024 and 6.6% in 2025. Inflation is expected to decrease to 4.4% in 2024, down from 5.6% in the previous year.
To combat inflation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive meeting in October 2024, emphasizing its commitment to stabilizing prices and supporting economic growth amidst the changing economic conditions.
Moreover, the rebound in India’s private consumption, indicated by a 7.4% rise in Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) for Q2 2024, suggests increased economic resilience and a potential boost in rural spending. This recovery, fueled by lower inflation and improved agricultural performance, may enhance the overall GDP growth, supporting investor confidence.
Gayatri Ganpule, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “Despite the geopolitical uncertainties, India’s economy shows resilience. Although inflation increased in September 2024, the projected annual rate of 4.4% is lower than the last year’s 5.6%. This expected lower price level, along with the festive season, is expected to boost consumption in Q4 2024. However, rising oil prices are a major concern, as India relies on imports for about 88% of its oil needs, risking imported inflation.”
In terms of sectors, financial intermediation, real estate, and business activities contributed 22.7% to the gross value added (GVA) in 2023, followed by mining, manufacturing, and utilities (18.7%) and agriculture (17.7%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are forecast to grow by 11.9%, 9.5%, and 9.7%, respectively, in 2024 as compared to the 9.9%, 8.1%, and 5.4% growth recorded in 2023.
India’s 2024-25 budget prioritizes job creation and enhancing the business environment through strategic tax reforms to attract foreign investment. The proposed measures include a review of the Income-tax Act, an amnesty scheme for tax disputes, and incentives for job creation. Simplifying foreign direct investment frameworks and adjusting capital gains taxes are expected to stimulate economic growth. These initiatives aim to resolve tax disputes and foster a more favorable investment climate.
India’s net foreign direct investment (FDI) increased to $6.9 billion in Q2 2024, up from $4.7 billion during the same period last year, as per the RBI data. This growth was driven by a 26.4% rise in gross inward FDI, totaling $22.5 billion. Sectors such as manufacturing, financial services, and energy contributed to 80% of these inflows, primarily from countries like Singapore and the US. During a recent roundtable meeting on 14 October 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engaged with business leaders from Singapore, leading to a commitment of approximately $60 billion in investments across various sectors in India.
On the external front, India aims to achieve $2 trillion in exports by 2030 under its new Foreign Trade Policy. The country recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion in Q1 2024, driven by service exports and remittances. As of 10 March 2024, India signed 14 free trade agreements (FTAs), including one with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), to improve exports and market access, seeking preferential ties with 94 countries. The ongoing negotiations could extend these agreements to over 120 countries, strengthening India’s global trade relationships.
India is categorized as a medium-risk nation and ranked 75th out of 153 nations in the GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI Q2 2024). The country’s risk score was lower in terms of political, legal, and technology and infrastructure risk parameters when compared with the average score of the world.
Ganpule concludes, “India’s economy demonstrates resilience, supported by robust domestic demand and government reforms aimed at enhancing investment. However, challenges such as increasing oil prices and high youth unemployment remain pressing issues. Continued efforts to expand trade and attract foreign investment are key to sustaining growth.”
Notes
The information is based on GlobalData’s latest report, “Macroeconomic Outlook Report: India” (ref. https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/india-pestle-macroeconomic-analysis/?utm_source=cision&utm_medium=press%20release&utm_campaign=gd_press%20release_cision_economic%20research_india_pestle%20report )
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