Source: Asia Development Bank
Short-term responses, while necessary for immediate relief, are insufficient to address the deep-rooted and long-term challenges faced by these countries. As sea-levels continue to rise and coastal inundation intensifies, a shift to more transformational adaptation strategies will be necessary.
Transformational adaptation strategies will leverage an understanding of current and future climate risks (which is a function of hazards, exposure, and vulnerabilities) to identify and prioritize sustainable, integrated, and sequenced adaptation investments across sectors, ensuring long-term resilience and preventing maladaptation.
Transformational adaptation requires holistic strategies that integrate the latest understanding of science, inclusive governance approaches, local cultural and traditional knowledge, and innovative financing mechanisms. This could include a combination of measures such as improved land use and settlement planning, land reclamation, resilient infrastructures, strengthening building designs, developing green skills, relocation policies, integrated water resources management approaches, improved disaster preparedness, and nature-based solutions.
Resources needed for implementing transformational adaptation strategies are greater than currently available. Equally important is the approach to identify the funding and financing of adaptation investments—how investments are identified, prioritized, financed, and maintained. This will differ significantly from business-as-usual practices.
For example, the Republic of Marshall Islands “survival plan”, National Adaptation Plan, estimates that protecting all of its atolls to withstand sea level rise would result in costs increasing up to $35 billion for a 2-meter sea level rise from $5 billion for a 0.5-meter sea level rise—equivalent to 125 times and 17.8 times of the country’s GDP in 2023 pegged at $0.28 billion, respectively.
Transformational adaptation strategies will also require longer preparation and implementation lead times than investments typically supported under the usual decision making and financing cycles—which means long-term commitment and programmatic approaches for financing. It will also need to promote enabling factors and policy actions to address the underlying drivers of vulnerability, such as land tenure.